Science.gov

Sample records for climate wise case

  1. Climate wise case study compendium: Report 1

    SciTech Connect

    1997-02-01

    This case study compendium is one of several Climate Wise tools available to help interested companies identify cost-effective options. Climate Wise, a private-public partnership program, is a key Federal initiative to return greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000.

  2. Climate-Wise Community Planning

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    La Plata County, Colorado, is an EPA Climate Showcase Community. EPA’s Climate Showcase Communities Program helps local governments and tribal nations pilot innovative, cost-effective and replicable community-based greenhouse gas reduction projects.

  3. Step-wise extinctions at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary and their climatic implications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maurrasse, Florentin J-M. R.

    1988-01-01

    A comparative study of planktonic foraminifera and radiolarian assemblages from the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary section of the Beloc Formation in the southern Peninsula of Haiti, and the lowermost Danian sequence of the Micara Formation in southern Cuba reveals a remarkable pattern of step-wise extinctions. This pattern is consistent in both places despite the widely different lithologies of the two formations. Because of a step-wise extinction and the delayed disappearance of taxa known to be more representative of cooler water realms, it is inferred that a cooling trend which characterized the close of the Maastrichtian and the onset of the Tertiary had the major adverse effect on the existing biota. Although repetitive lithologic and faunal fluctuations throughout the Maastrichtian sediments found at Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) site 146/149 in the Caribbean Sea indicate variations reminiscent of known climatically induced cycles in the Cenozoic, rapid biotic succession appears to have taken place during a crisis period of a duration greater than 2 mission years. Widespread and abundant volcanic activities recorded in the Caribbean area during the crisis period gives further credence to earlier contention that intense volcanism may have played a major role in exhacerbating pre-existing climatic conditions during that time.

  4. Climate wise and BSR: Partnering with business to improve the environment and the bottom line

    SciTech Connect

    Klein, R.C.

    1996-05-01

    American companies consume nearly 50 percent of the nation`s energy. These companies, along with the utilities who provide them energy, produce nearly two-thirds of the nation`s greenhouse gas emissions. Developing and nurturing partnerships among companies, utilities and government agencies, and nonprofit organizations can lead to dramatic increases in the efficiency and productivity of American companies while simultaneously decreasing pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. The Business for Social Responsibility (BSR) Education Fund is a not-for-profit business organization that energy efficiency and pollution prevention practices within the business community and serves as a catalyst for change toward more environmentally sustainable development. The BSR Education Fund has joined forces with Climate Wise. A voluntary program of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Department of Energy, to help companies to improve their environmental and economic efficiency by forming partnerships with their local utilities and other business resource providers.

  5. Bridging the Divide: A Case Study Investigating Digitally-Wise Teacher Perceptions of Middle School Cyberbullying

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graves, Tiffany Nicole

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this qualitative case study was to explore the perceptions of middle school, technologically proficient, or digitally-wise teachers, regarding how they defined, prevented, recognized, and handled incidences of cyberbullying in four middle schools located in Southern Virginia. Data was collected using an open-ended questionnaire,…

  6. Irrigation Effects on Hydro-Climatic Change: Basin-Wise Water Balance-Constrained Quantification and Cross-Regional Comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asokan, Shilpa M.; Destouni, Georgia

    2014-05-01

    Hydro-climatic changes driven by human land and water use, including water use for irrigation, may be difficult to distinguish from the effects of global, natural and anthropogenic climate change. This paper quantifies and compares the hydro-climatic change effects of irrigation using a data-driven, basin-wise quantification approach in two different irrigated world regions: the Aral Sea drainage basin in Central Asia and the Indian Mahanadi River Basin draining into the Bay of Bengal. Results show that irrigation-driven changes in evapotranspiration and latent heat fluxes and associated temperature changes at the land surface may be greater in regions with small relative irrigation impacts on water availability in the landscape (here represented by the Mahanadi River Basin) than in regions with severe such impacts (here represented by the Aral region). Different perspectives on the continental part of Earth's hydrological cycle may thus imply different importance assessments of various drivers and impacts of hydro-climatic change. Regardless of perspective, however, actual basin-wise water balance constraints should be accounted to realistically understand and accurately quantify continental water change.

  7. Isgur-Wise functions and unitary representations of the Lorentz group: The baryon case j=0

    SciTech Connect

    Le Yaouanc, A.; Oliver, L.; Raynal, J.-C.

    2009-09-01

    We propose a group theoretical method to study Isgur-Wise (IW) functions. A current matrix element splits into a heavy quark matrix element and an overlap of the initial and final clouds, related to the IW functions, that contain the long distance physics. The light cloud belongs to the Hilbert space of a unitary representation of the Lorentz group. Decomposing into irreducible representations one obtains the IW function as an integral formula, superposition of irreducible IW functions with positive measures, providing positivity bounds on its derivatives. Our method is equivalent to the sum rule approach, but sheds another light on the physics and summarizes and gives all its possible constraints. We expose the general formalism, thoroughly applying it to the case j=0 for the light cloud, relevant to the semileptonic decay {lambda}{sub b}{yields}{lambda}{sub c}l{nu}{sub l}. In this case, the principal series of the representations contribute, and also the supplementary series. We recover the bound for the curvature of the j=0 IW function {xi}{sub {lambda}}(w) that we did obtain from the sum rule method, and we get new bounds for higher derivatives. We demonstrate also that if the lower bound for the curvature is saturated, then {xi}{sub {lambda}}(w) is completely determined, given by an explicit elementary function. We give criteria to decide if any Ansatz for the Isgur-Wise function is compatible or not with the sum rules. We apply the method to some simple model forms proposed in the literature. Dealing with a Hilbert space, the sum rules are convergent, but this feature does not survive hard gluon radiative corrections.

  8. Burn Wise

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Burn Wise is a partnership program of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency that emphasizes the importance of burning the right wood, the right way, in the right appliance to protect your home, health, and the air we breathe.

  9. Step-Wise Evolution of Mental Models of Electric Circuits: A "Learning-Aloud" Case Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clement, John J.; Steinberg, Melvin S.

    2002-01-01

    Describes an approach to teaching complex models in science that uses a model construction cycle of generation, evaluation, and modification. Reports on a case study of a student in a tutoring experiment in the study of electric circuits. Focuses on the role of analogies, discrepant events, and the student's moments of surprise as motivators of…

  10. Choosing Wisely

    PubMed Central

    Chan, Emilie; Hemmelgarn, Brenda; Klarenbach, Scott; Manns, Braden; Mustafa, Reem; Nesrallah, Gihad; McQuillan, Rory

    2017-01-01

    Purpose of review: The purpose of this review is to contribute to the Choosing Wisely Canada campaign and develop a list of 5 items for nephrology health care professionals and patients to re-evaluate based on evidence that they are overused or misused. Sources of information: A working group was formed from the Canadian Society of Nephrology (CSN) Clinical Practice Guidelines Committee. This working group sequentially used a multistage Delphi method, a survey of CSN members, a modified Delphi process, and a comprehensive literature review to determine 10 candidate items representing potentially ineffective care in nephrology. An in-person vote by CSN members at their Annual General Meeting was used to rank each item based on their relevance to and potential impact on patients with kidney disease to derive the final 5 items on the list. Key messages: One hundred thirty-four of 609 (22%) CSN members responded to the survey, from which the CSN working group identified 10 candidate-misused items. Sixty-five CSN members voted on the ranking of these items. The top 5 recommendations selected for the final list were (1) do not initiate erythropoiesis-stimulating agents in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) with hemoglobin levels greater than or equal to 100 g/L without symptoms of anemia; (2) do not prescribe nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs for individuals with hypertension or heart failure or CKD of all causes, including diabetes; (3) do not prescribe angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors in combination with angiotensin II receptor blockers for the treatment of hypertension, diabetic nephropathy or heart failure; (4) do not initiate chronic dialysis without ensuring a shared decision-making process between patients, their families, and their nephrology health care team; and (5) do not initiate dialysis in outpatients with CKD category G5-ND in the absence of clinical indications. Limitations: A low survey response rate of both community and academic

  11. SU-E-T-642: PTV Is the Voxel-Wise Worst-Case of CTV in Prostate Photon Therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Harrington, D; Schild, S; Wong, W; Vora, S; Liu, W

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: To examine the adequacy of the planning target volume (PTV) dose distribution as the worst-case representation of clinical target volume (CTV) dose distribution in prostate volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) plans. Methods: Ten intact prostate cancer cases treated by VMAT at our institution were randomly selected. Isocenter was shifted in the three cardinal directions by a displacement equal to the PTV expansion on the CTV (±3 mm) for a total of six shifted plans per original plan. Rotationally-perturbed plans were generated with a couch rotation of ±1° to simulate patient yaw. The eight perturbed dose distributions were recalculated in the treatment planning system using the same, fixed fluence map as the original plan. The voxel-wise worst-case CTV dose distribution was constructed from the minimum value per voxel from the eight perturbed doses. The resulting dose volume histograms (DVH) were evaluated for statistical correlation between the worst-case CTV and nominal PTV dose distributions based on D95% by Wilcoxon signed-rank test with significance level p ≤ 0.05. Results: Inspection demonstrates the PTV DVH in the nominal dose distribution is bounded by the CTV DVH in the worst-case dose distribution. Comparison of D95% for the two dose distributions by Wilcoxon signed-rank test gives p = 0.131. Therefore the null hypothesis cannot be rejected since the difference in median values is not statistically significant. Conclusion: The assumption that the nominal dose distribution for PTV represents the worst-case dose distribution for CTV appears valid for the ten plans under examination. Although the worst-case dose distribution is unphysical since the dose per voxel is chosen independently, it serves as a lower bound for the possible CTV coverage. Furthermore, this is consistent with the unphysical nature of the PTV. Minor discrepancies between the two dose distributions are expected since the dose cloud is not strictly static. Funding Support

  12. Burn Wise - Outreach Materials

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Burn Wise outreach material. Burn Wise is a partnership program of that emphasizes the importance of burning the right wood, the right way, in the right wood-burning appliance to protect your home, health, and the air we breathe.

  13. Spending Money Wisely.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wentworth, Donald R.; And Others

    1982-01-01

    The theme article of this issue, "Spending Money Wisely," by Donald R. Wentworth, begins with an explanation of basic strategies which aid wise spending. The article goes on to provide an introduction to economic reasoning related to consumer purchases and focusing on the role of incentives, scarcity, and alternatives. Four teaching units follow…

  14. WISE Eyes the Whole Sky

    NASA Video Gallery

    This animation shows the progress of the WISE all-sky survey over time. WISE, or NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, is perched up in the sky like a wise, old owl, scanning the whole sky on...

  15. Treating the "wise baby".

    PubMed

    Vida, Judith E

    2005-03-01

    In a previous examination of Ferenczi's concept of the "Wise Baby" (1996), I had noted both its applications and its limitations in the analytic treatment of an unusually intelligent adult. Ferenczi's concepts of "the origin of intellect in trauma" and of "the wise baby" have often left the indistinct impression of being interrelated phenomena. In this paper, I regard as arguable the notion that very high intelligence is pathological when it is "precocious." This return visit to the territory of the "wise baby" extends Ferenczi's ideas about the "origin" and use of the intellect to include a consideration of what may constitute effective "treatment" for those who suffer from giftedness.

  16. Why Exercise Is Wise

    MedlinePlus

    ... Surgery? A Week of Healthy Breakfasts Shyness Why Exercise Is Wise KidsHealth > For Teens > Why Exercise Is ... exercise, strength training, and flexibility training. continue Aerobic Exercise Like other muscles, the heart enjoys a good ...

  17. Using Medicines Wisely

    MedlinePlus

    ... Consumers Consumer Information by Audience For Women Use Medicines Wisely Share Tweet Linkedin Pin it More sharing ... or foods should I avoid? 2. Keep a Medicine List Write down the important facts about each ...

  18. Isgur-Wise functions and unitary representations of the Lorentz group: The meson case with j =1/2 light cloud

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Yaouanc, A.; Oliver, L.; Raynal, J.-C.

    2014-12-01

    We pursue the group-theoretical method to study Isgur-Wise (IW) functions. We extend the general formalism, formerly applied to the baryon case jP=0+ (for Λb→Λcℓν¯ ℓ ), to mesons with jP=1/2- , i.e. B ¯ →D (D(*))ℓν . In this case, which is more involved from the angular momentum point of view, only the principal series of unitary representations of the Lorentz group contribute. We obtain an integral representation for the IW function ξ (w ) with a positive measure, recover the bounds for the slope and the curvature of ξ (w ) obtained from the Bjorken-Uraltsev sum-rule method, and get new bounds for higher derivatives. We demonstrate also that if the lower bound for the slope is saturated, the measure is a δ function, and ξ (w ) is given by an explicit elementary function. Inverting the integral formula, we obtain the measure in terms of the IW function, allowing us to formulate criteria to decide if a given Ansatz for the Isgur-Wise function is compatible or not with the sum-rule constraints. Moreover, we obtain an upper bound on the IW function valid for any value of w . We compare these theoretical constraints to a number of forms for ξ (w ) proposed in the literature. The "dipole" function ξ (w )=(2/w+1 ) 2 c satisfies all constraints for c ≥3/4 , while the QCD sum rule result including condensates does not satisfy them. Special care is devoted to the Bakamjian-Thomas relativistic quark model in the heavy-quark limit and to the description of the Lorentz group representation that underlies this model. Consistently, the IW function satisfies all Lorentz group criteria for any explicit form of the meson Hamiltonian at rest.

  19. Constructing a WISE High Resolution Galaxy Atlas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jarrett, T. H.; Masci, F.; Tsai, C. W.; Petty, S.; Cluver, M.; Assef, Roberto J.; Benford, D.; Blain, A.; Bridge, C.; Donoso, E.; Eisenhardt, P.; Fowler, J.; Koribalski, B.; Lake, S.; Neill, James D.; Seibert, M.; Stanford, S.; Wright, E.

    2012-01-01

    After eight months of continuous observations, the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) mapped the entire sky at 3.4 micron, 4.6 micron, 12 micron, and 22 micron. We have begun a dedicated WISE High Resolution Galaxy Atlas project to fully characterize large, nearby galaxies and produce a legacy image atlas and source catalog. Here we summarize the deconvolution techniques used to significantly improve the spatial resolution of WISE imaging, specifically designed to study the internal anatomy of nearby galaxies. As a case study, we present results for the galaxy NGC 1566, comparing the WISE enhanced-resolution image processing to that of Spitzer, Galaxy Evolution Explorer, and ground-based imaging. This is the first paper in a two-part series; results for a larger sample of nearby galaxies are presented in the second paper.

  20. Constructing a WISE High Resolution Galaxy Atlas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jarrett, T. H.; Masci, F.; Tsai, C. W.; Petty, S.; Cluver, M.; Assef, Roberto J.; Benford, D.; Blain, A.; Bridge, C.; Donoso, E.; Eisenhardt, P.; Fowler, J.; Koribalski, B.; Lake, S.; Neill, James D.; Seibert, M.; Sheth, K.; Stanford, S.; Wright, E.

    2012-08-01

    After eight months of continuous observations, the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) mapped the entire sky at 3.4 μm, 4.6 μm, 12 μm, and 22 μm. We have begun a dedicated WISE High Resolution Galaxy Atlas project to fully characterize large, nearby galaxies and produce a legacy image atlas and source catalog. Here we summarize the deconvolution techniques used to significantly improve the spatial resolution of WISE imaging, specifically designed to study the internal anatomy of nearby galaxies. As a case study, we present results for the galaxy NGC 1566, comparing the WISE enhanced-resolution image processing to that of Spitzer, Galaxy Evolution Explorer, and ground-based imaging. This is the first paper in a two-part series; results for a larger sample of nearby galaxies are presented in the second paper.

  1. Obscured AGNs in Bulgeless Hosts discovered by WISE: The Case Study of SDSS J1224+5555

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satyapal, S.; Secrest, N. J.; Rothberg, B.; O'Connor, J. A.; Ellison, S. L.; Hickox, R. C.; Constantin, A.; Gliozzi, M.; Rosenberg, J. L.

    2016-08-01

    There is mounting evidence that supermassive black holes (SMBHs) form and grow in bulgeless galaxies. However, a robust determination of the fraction of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in bulgeless galaxies, an important constraint to models of SMBH seed formation and merger-free models of AGN fueling, is unknown, since optical studies have been shown to be incomplete for AGNs in low-mass galaxies. In a recent study using the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, we discovered hundreds of bulgeless galaxies that display mid-infrared signatures of extremely hot dust suggestive of powerful accreting massive black holes, despite having no signatures of black hole activity at optical wavelengths. Here we report X-ray follow-up observations of J122434.66+555522.3, a nearby (z = 0.052) isolated bulgeless galaxy that contains an unresolved X-ray source detected at the 3σ level by XMM-Newton with an observed luminosity uncorrected for intrinsic absorption of {L}2-10{keV}=(1.1+/- 0.4)× {10}40 erg s-1. Ground-based near-infrared spectroscopy with the Large Binocular Telescope and multiwavelength observations from ultraviolet to millimeter wavelengths together suggest that J1224+5555 harbors a highly absorbed AGN with an intrinsic absorption of {N}{{H}}\\gt {10}24 cm-2. The hard X-ray luminosity of the putative AGN corrected for absorption is {L}2-10{keV}˜ 3× {10}42 erg s-1, which, depending on the bolometric correction factor, corresponds to a bolometric luminosity of the AGN of {L}{bol}.˜ 6× {10}43-3 × 1044 {erg} {{{s}}}-1 and a lower mass limit for the black hole of {M}{BH}≃ 2× {10}6 {M}⊙ , based on the Eddington limit. While enhanced X-ray emission and hot dust can be produced by star formation in extremely low metallicity environments typical in dwarf galaxies, J1224+5555 has a stellar mass of ˜ 2.0× {10}10 {M}⊙ and an above solar metallicity (12 + {logO}/{{H}} = 9.11), typical of our WISE-selected bulgeless galaxy sample. While collectively these

  2. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  3. Get SunWise

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagen, Patricia; Ingram, Dabney

    2004-01-01

    Providing sun-safe environments, schedules, and activities; teaching and modeling sun-safe behaviors; and implementing a sun-safe school policy are ways that schools can help protect children from sun overexposure and lay the foundation for a healthy lifestyle at an early age. This article presents the SunWise program and examples of classroom…

  4. BASINs and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA announced the release of the final report, BASINs and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case Study Guide to Potential Applications. This report supports application of two recently developed water modeling tools, the Better Assessment Science Integrating point & Non-point Sources (BASINS) and the Water Erosion Prediction Project Climate Assessment Tool (WEPPCAT). The report presents a series of short case studies designed to illustrate the capabilities of these tools for conducting scenario based assessments of the potential effects of climate change on streamflow and water quality. This report presents a series of short, illustrative case studies using the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools.

  5. Choosing Wisely for Birth

    PubMed Central

    Budin, Wendy C.

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT In this column, the editor of The Journal of Perinatal Education describes the American Academy of Nursing’s engagement in the national Choosing Wisely campaign and how it has implications for promoting normal birth. The editor also describes the contents of this issue, which offer a broad range of resources, research, and inspiration for childbirth educators in their efforts to promote, support, and protect natural, safe, and healthy birth. PMID:26937155

  6. BASINS and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This draft report supports application of two recently developed water modeling tools, the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools. The report presents a series of short case studies designed to illustrate the capabilities of these tools for conducting scenario based assessments of the potential future effects of climate change on water resources. This report presents a series of short, illustrative case studies using the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools.

  7. Students' Perspective (Age Wise, Gender Wise and Year Wise) of Parameters Affecting the Undergraduate Engineering Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kumari, Neeraj

    2014-01-01

    The objective of the study is to examine the students' perspective (age wise, gender wise and year wise) of parameters affecting the undergraduate engineering education system present in a private technical institution in NCR [National Capital Region], Haryana. It is a descriptive type of research in nature. The data has been collected with the…

  8. Growing controversy over "wise international water governance".

    PubMed

    Trondalen, J M

    2004-01-01

    This article takes the perspective that when political relationships are strained, there seem to be few examples of wise international water resources governance. The Middle East is a striking example. Much effort has been put into policy development and the design of international principles, but very little into the translation of those into concrete and lasting governance. One of the theses of the article is that politics--whether domestic or international--in most cases overrides these principles and standards. Moreover readymade regional co-operation models of water managements are not directly applicable to every geographical, political, economic and social setting. Certain factors are often under-estimated in international water negotiations, such as: the complexity of any hydro-political negotiations, and need to develop commonly accepted standards; the difficulty of translating policy--either politically or legally--into an operational and realistic negotiations strategy; the format of the procedures and meetings; recognition that third parties should have a long-term perspective on any conflict they get involved in. With reservations, the lessons learned indicate that the following factors have an impact on grid locked situations, such as: new substantive information; new trade-offs between the parties; and changed political climate or relationship with external power-brokers.

  9. The wise leader.

    PubMed

    Nonaka, Ikujiro; Takeuchi, Hirotaka

    2011-05-01

    In an era of increasing discontinuity, wise leadership has nearly vanished. Many leaders find it difficult to reinvent their corporations rapidly enough to cope with new technologies, demographic shifts, and consumption trends. They can't develop truly global organizations that operate effortlessly across borders. And they find it tough to ensure that their people adhere to values and ethics. The authors assert that leaders must acquire practical wisdom, or what Aristotle called phronesis: experiential knowledge that enables people to make ethically sound judgments. Wise leaders demonstrate six abilities: (i) They make decisions on the basis of what is good for the organization and for society. (2) They quickly grasp the essence of a situation and fathom the nature and meaning of people, things, and events. (3) They provide contexts in which executives and employees can interact to create new meaning. (4) They employ metaphors and stories to convert their experience into tacit knowledge that others can use. (5) They exert political power to bring people together and spur them to act. (6) They use apprenticeship and mentoring to cultivate practical wisdom in orders.

  10. Sustainable Materials Management (SMM) WasteWise Data

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA??s WasteWise encourages organizations and businesses to achieve sustainability in their practices and reduce select industrial wastes. WasteWise is part of EPA??s sustainable materials management efforts, which promote the use and reuse of materials more productively over their entire lifecycles. All U.S. businesses, governments and nonprofit organizations can join WasteWise as a partner, endorser or both. Current participants range from small local governments and nonprofit organizations to large multinational corporations. Partners demonstrate how they reduce waste, practice environmental stewardship and incorporate sustainable materials management into their waste-handling processes. Endorsers promote enrollment in WasteWise as part of a comprehensive approach to help their stakeholders realize the economic benefits to reducing waste. WasteWise helps organizations reduce their impact on global climate change through waste reduction. Every stage of a product's life cycle??extraction, manufacturing, distribution, use and disposal??indirectly or directly contributes to the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere and affects the global climate. WasteWise is part of EPA's larger SMM program (https://www.epa.gov/smm). Sustainable Materials Management (SMM) is a systemic approach to using and reusing materials more productively over their entire lifecycles. It represents a change in how our society thinks about the use of natural resources

  11. Reservoirs performances under climate variability: a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Longobardi, A.; Mautone, M.; de Luca, C.

    2014-09-01

    A case study, the Piano della Rocca dam (southern Italy) is discussed here in order to quantify the system performances under climate variability conditions. Different climate scenarios have been stochastically generated according to the tendencies in precipitation and air temperature observed during recent decades for the studied area. Climate variables have then been filtered through an ARMA model to generate, at the monthly scale, time series of reservoir inflow volumes. Controlled release has been computed considering the reservoir is operated following the standard linear operating policy (SLOP) and reservoir performances have been assessed through the calculation of reliability, resilience and vulnerability indices (Hashimoto et al. 1982), comparing current and future scenarios of climate variability. The proposed approach can be suggested as a valuable tool to mitigate the effects of moderate to severe and persistent droughts periods, through the allocation of new water resources or the planning of appropriate operational rules.

  12. unWISE: Unblurred coadds of the WISE imaging

    SciTech Connect

    Lang, Dustin

    2014-05-01

    The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) satellite observed the full sky in four mid-infrared bands in the 2.8-28 μm range. The primary mission was completed in 2010. The WISE team has done a superb job of producing a series of high-quality, well-documented, complete data releases in a timely manner. However, the 'Atlas Image' coadds that are part of the recent AllWISE and previous data releases were intentionally blurred. Convolving the images by the point-spread function while coadding results in 'matched-filtered' images that are close to optimal for detecting isolated point sources. But these matched-filtered images are sub-optimal or inappropriate for other purposes. For example, we are photometering the WISE images at the locations of sources detected in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey through forward modeling, and this blurring decreases the available signal-to-noise by effectively broadening the point-spread function. This paper presents a new set of coadds of the WISE images that have not been blurred. These images retain the intrinsic resolution of the data and are appropriate for photometry preserving the available signal-to-noise. Users should be cautioned, however, that the W3- and W4-band coadds contain artifacts around large, bright structures (large galaxies, dusty nebulae, etc.); eliminating these artifacts is the subject of ongoing work. These new coadds, and the code used to produce them, are publicly available at http://unwise.me.

  13. unWISE: Unblurred Coadds of the WISE Imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lang, Dustin

    2014-05-01

    The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) satellite observed the full sky in four mid-infrared bands in the 2.8-28 μm range. The primary mission was completed in 2010. The WISE team has done a superb job of producing a series of high-quality, well-documented, complete data releases in a timely manner. However, the "Atlas Image" coadds that are part of the recent AllWISE and previous data releases were intentionally blurred. Convolving the images by the point-spread function while coadding results in "matched-filtered" images that are close to optimal for detecting isolated point sources. But these matched-filtered images are sub-optimal or inappropriate for other purposes. For example, we are photometering the WISE images at the locations of sources detected in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey through forward modeling, and this blurring decreases the available signal-to-noise by effectively broadening the point-spread function. This paper presents a new set of coadds of the WISE images that have not been blurred. These images retain the intrinsic resolution of the data and are appropriate for photometry preserving the available signal-to-noise. Users should be cautioned, however, that the W3- and W4-band coadds contain artifacts around large, bright structures (large galaxies, dusty nebulae, etc.); eliminating these artifacts is the subject of ongoing work. These new coadds, and the code used to produce them, are publicly available at http://unwise.me.

  14. Designing climate-smart conservation: guidance and case studies.

    PubMed

    Hansen, Lara; Hoffman, Jennifer; Drews, Carlos; Mielbrecht, Eric

    2010-02-01

    To be successful, conservation practitioners and resource managers must fully integrate the effects of climate change into all planning projects. Some conservation practitioners are beginning to develop, test, and implement new approaches that are designed to deal with climate change. We devised four basic tenets that are essential in climate-change adaptation for conservation: protect adequate and appropriate space, reduce nonclimate stresses, use adaptive management to implement and test climate-change adaptation strategies, and work to reduce the rate and extent of climate change to reduce overall risk. To illustrate how this approach applies in the real world, we explored case studies of coral reefs in the Florida Keys; mangrove forests in Fiji, Tanzania, and Cameroon; sea-level rise and sea turtles in the Caribbean; tigers in the Sundarbans of India; and national planning in Madagascar. Through implementation of these tenets conservation efforts in each of these regions can be made more robust in the face of climate change. Although these approaches require reconsidering some traditional approaches to conservation, this new paradigm is technologically, economically, and intellectually feasible.

  15. WISE and the Dusty Universe

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Benford, Dominic J.

    2010-01-01

    The Wide-field Infrared Survey is a medium class Explorer mission that was launched onl4Dec 2009. WISE should detect hundreds of millions of stars and galaxies, including millions of ULIRGS and QSOs; hundreds of thousands of asteroids; and hundreds of cold brown dwarfs. The telescope cover was ejected on 29 Dec 2009 and the all-sky survey started on 14 Jan 2010. WISE takes more the 7000 framesets per day, with each frameset covering 0.6 square degrees in four bands centered at 3.4, 4.6, 12 and 22 microns. WISE is well-suited to the discovery of brown dwarfs, ultraluminous infrared galaxies, and near-Earth objects. With an angular resolution of 6 arcsecouds at 12 microns, a 5(sigma) point-source sensitivity of around 1 mJy at 12 microns and 6 mJy at 22 microns, and coverage of over 99% of the sky, WISE also provides a powerful database for the study of the dusty ISM in our own galaxy. A preliminary release of WISE data will be made available to the community 6 months after the end of the cryogenic survey, or about May 2011. The final data release will be 11 months later, about April 2012.

  16. EPA Recognizes Outstanding Food Recovery Challenge and WasteWise Program Participants

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    WASHINGTON - Today, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recognizes the accomplishments of organizations and businesses participating in EPA's Food Recovery Challenge and WasteWise program for reducing their climate footprint, improving efficienc

  17. Public Perception of Climate Risk: The Case of Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voskaki, Asimina; Tsermenidis, Konstantinos

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is generally considered as one of the greatest challenges our world is facing. In the case of Greece climatic change seems to be associated with sea level rise, increase in temperature, variation in precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events. As a result of climate pattern changes a series of consequences are expected in areas involving build environment, infrastructures, health and various sectors of the economy. Even though climate change is probably going to affect Greece in terms of human welfare and economic growth, public perception and attitude do not always identify it as the most important, amongst others, environmental area of concern, or compared to various socio-economic issues. Considering that topics related to climate change involve a certain degree of uncertainty public perception seems to be important when dealing with adaptation strategies to manage or prevent risks from climate change impact and therefore people's reaction to risks seem to be an issue of great importance in future policy planning and implementation. The key issue of this paper is to investigate and analyse public perception in Greece as regards to climate change risk. Through a questionnaire survey this research investigates people's understanding, specific knowledge, opinion, awareness, emotions, behavior with regards to climate change risks and their willingness to pay in order to minimize or prevent risk. In addition, it examines people's willingness to alter current lifestyle and adapt to a changing climate. The information derived from survey data concern the topics and the perceived importance of the causes of the climate change between certain groups of people; the analysis of the data is focused on the correlation between perceived risk and knowledge about the issues involved. Rather than applying a specific technique extensively, we choose to deploy a number of methodologies with which we are able to draw different aspects from the data. To this

  18. Burn Wise Outreach Materials for Retailers

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Burn Wise outreach material. Burn Wise is a partnership program of that emphasizes the importance of burning the right wood, the right way, in the right wood-burning appliance to protect your home, health, and the air we breathe.

  19. DOE climate partnerships

    SciTech Connect

    Stoss, F.

    1995-12-31

    This article briefly describes US DOE partnerships, with electrical utilities and with US EPA and industry, which focus on reduction in greenhouse gasses. They are called `Climate Challenge` and `Climate Wise.`

  20. THE WISE LIGHT CURVES OF POLARS

    SciTech Connect

    Harrison, Thomas E.; Campbell, Ryan K. E-mail: Ryan.Campbell@humboldt.edu

    2015-08-15

    We have extracted the WISE (Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer) single-exposure data for a sample of 72 polars, which are highly magnetic cataclysmic variables (CVs). We combine these data with both published and unpublished optical and infrared data to explore the origins of the large amplitude variations seen in these systems. In nearly every case, we find evidence for cyclotron emission in the WISE bandpasses. We find that the derived magnetic field strengths for some polars are either too high, or cyclotron emission from lower field components, located spatially coincident to the main accreting poles, must be occurring. We have also estimated field strengths for a number of polars where no such values exist. In addition, contrary to expectations, we find that emission from the fundamental cyclotron harmonic (n = 1) appears to be nearly always present when the magnetic field is of the appropriate strength that it falls within a WISE bandpass. We find that the light curves for RBS 490, an ultrashort-period (46 minutes) CV, suggest that it is a polar. Modeling its spectrum indicates that its donor star is much hotter than expected. Nearly all of the detected polars show 11.5 μm (“W3 band”) excesses. The general lack of variability seen in the W3 bandpass light curves for higher-field polars demonstrates that these excesses are probably not due to cyclotron emission. There is circumstantial evidence that these excesses can be attributed to bremsstrahlung emission from their accretion streams. Reduction of the Spitzer 24 μm image of V1500 Cyg shows that it appears to be located at the center of a small nebula.

  1. Cure-WISE: HETDEX Data Reduction with Astro-WISE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snigula, J. M.; Drory, N.; Fabricius, M.; Landriau, M.; Montesano, F.; Hill, G. J.; Gebhardt, K.; Cornell, M. E.

    2014-05-01

    The Hobby-Eberly Telescope Dark Energy Experiment (HETDEX, Hill et al. 2012b) is a blind spectroscopic survey to map the evolution of dark energy using Lyman-alpha emitting galaxies at redshifts 1.9< ɀ <3.5 as tracers. The survey will use an array of 75 integral field spectrographs called the Visible Integral field Replicable Unit (IFU) Spectrograph (VIRUS, Hill et al. 2012c). The 10m HET (Ramsey et al. 1998) currently receives a wide-field upgrade (Hill et al. 2012a) to accomodate the spectrographs and to provide the needed field of view. Over the projected five year run of the survey we expect to obtain approximately 170 GB of data each night. For the data reduction we developed the Cure pipeline, to automatically find and calibrate the observed spectra, subtract the sky background, and detect and classify different types of sources. Cure employs rigorous statistical methods and complete pixel-level error propagation throughout the reduction process to ensure Poisson-limited performance and meaningful significance values. To automate the reduction of the whole dataset we implemented the Cure pipeline in the Astro-WISE framework. This integration provides for HETDEX a database backend with complete dependency tracking of the various reduction steps, automated checks, and a searchable interface to the detected sources and user management. It can be used to create various web interfaces for data access and quality control. Astro-WISE allows us to reduce the data from all the IFUs in parallel on a compute cluster. This cluster allows us to reduce the observed data in quasi real time and still have excess capacity for rerunning parts of the reduction. Finally, the Astro-WISE interface will be used to provide access to reduced data products to the general community.

  2. Cure-WISE: HETDEX data reduction with Astro-WISE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snigula, J. M.; Cornell, M. E.; Drory, N.; Fabricius, Max.; Landriau, M.; Hill, G. J.; Gebhardt, K.

    2012-09-01

    The Hobby-Eberly Telescope Dark Energy Experiment (HETDEX) is a blind spectroscopic survey to map the evolution of dark energy using Lyman-alpha emitting galaxies at redshifts 1:9 < z < 3:5 as tracers. The survey instrument, VIRUS, consists of 75 IFUs distributed across the 22-arcmin field of the upgraded 9.2-m HET. Each exposure gathers 33,600 spectra. Over the projected five year run of the survey we expect about 170 GB of data per night. For the data reduction we developed the Cure pipeline. Cure is designed to automatically find and calibrate the observed spectra, subtract the sky background, and detect and classify different types of sources. Cure employs rigorous statistical methods and complete pixel-level error propagation throughout the reduction process to ensure Poisson-limited performance and meaningful significance values. To automate the reduction of the whole dataset we implemented the Cure pipeline in the Astro-WISE framework. This integration provides for HETDEX a database backend with complete dependency tracking of the various reduction steps, automated checks, and a searchable interface to the detected sources and user management. It can be used to create various web interfaces for data access and quality control. Astro-WISE allows us to reduce the data from all the IFUs in parallel on a compute cluster. This cluster allows us to reduce the observed data in quasi real time and still have excess capacity for rerunning parts of the reduction. Finally, the Astro-WISE interface will be used to provide access to reduced data products to the general community.

  3. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices (2011 Final)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA is releasing the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and Developmen...

  4. 76 FR 71341 - BASINS and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools: Case Study Guide to Potential Applications

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-17

    ... Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case Study Guide to Potential Applications (EPA/600/R-11/123A). EPA also... Assessment Tool (BASINS CAT) and the Water Erosion Prediction Project Climate Assessment Tool (WEPPCAT),...

  5. Meeting Wise: Making the Most of Collaborative Time for Educators

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boudett, Kathryn Parker; City, Elizabeth A.

    2014-01-01

    This book, by two editors of "Data Wise: A Step-by-Step Guide to Using Assessment Results to Improve Teaching and Learning," attempts to bring about a fundamental shift in how educators think about the meetings we attend. They make the case that these gatherings are potentially the most important venue where adult and organizational…

  6. 75 FR 51806 - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-23

    ...-0701] Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices AGENCY...-day public comment period for the draft document titled, ``Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment... utilities to assess their vulnerability to future climate change. The report is intended to illustrate...

  7. Motivation and Test-Wiseness Interactions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ducote, Kenneth J.

    A theoretical framework is presented to investigate the interactions of certain motivational factors with test-wiseness. Test performance is a function of two independent elements: the cognitive learning in the classroom situation and the test-wiseness in the testing situation. These situations are associated with independent sets of affective…

  8. WISE PHOTOMETRY FOR 400 MILLION SDSS SOURCES

    SciTech Connect

    Lang, Dustin; Hogg, David W.; Schlegel, David J.

    2016-02-15

    We present photometry of images from the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) of over 400 million sources detected by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We use a “forced photometry” technique, using measured SDSS source positions, star–galaxy classification, and galaxy profiles to define the sources whose fluxes are to be measured in the WISE images. We perform photometry with The Tractor image modeling code, working on our “unWISE” coaddds and taking account of the WISE point-spread function and a noise model. The result is a measurement of the flux of each SDSS source in each WISE band. Many sources have little flux in the WISE bands, so often the measurements we report are consistent with zero given our uncertainties. However, for many sources we get 3σ or 4σ measurements; these sources would not be reported by the “official” WISE pipeline and will not appear in the WISE catalog, yet they can be highly informative for some scientific questions. In addition, these small-signal measurements can be used in stacking analyses at the catalog level. The forced photometry approach has the advantage that we measure a consistent set of sources between SDSS and WISE, taking advantage of the resolution and depth of the SDSS images to interpret the WISE images; objects that are resolved in SDSS but blended together in WISE still have accurate measurements in our photometry. Our results, and the code used to produce them, are publicly available at http://unwise.me.

  9. WISE Photometry for 400 Million SDSS Sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lang, Dustin; Hogg, David W.; Schlegel, David J.

    2016-02-01

    We present photometry of images from the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) of over 400 million sources detected by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We use a “forced photometry” technique, using measured SDSS source positions, star-galaxy classification, and galaxy profiles to define the sources whose fluxes are to be measured in the WISE images. We perform photometry with The Tractor image modeling code, working on our “unWISE” coaddds and taking account of the WISE point-spread function and a noise model. The result is a measurement of the flux of each SDSS source in each WISE band. Many sources have little flux in the WISE bands, so often the measurements we report are consistent with zero given our uncertainties. However, for many sources we get 3σ or 4σ measurements; these sources would not be reported by the “official” WISE pipeline and will not appear in the WISE catalog, yet they can be highly informative for some scientific questions. In addition, these small-signal measurements can be used in stacking analyses at the catalog level. The forced photometry approach has the advantage that we measure a consistent set of sources between SDSS and WISE, taking advantage of the resolution and depth of the SDSS images to interpret the WISE images; objects that are resolved in SDSS but blended together in WISE still have accurate measurements in our photometry. Our results, and the code used to produce them, are publicly available at http://unwise.me.

  10. Mapping Climate Change: Six U.S. Case Studies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holmberg, Marjorie O.

    2010-01-01

    This research focuses on the current role of mapping practices in communicating climate change in the United States. This includes maps used in monitoring climate change, projecting its potential impacts, and identifying potential adaptation strategies at particular scales. Since few, if any, studies have been done specifically on mapping…

  11. Case study applications of the BASINS climate assessment tool (CAT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This EPA report will illustrate the application of different climate assessment capabilities within EPA’s BASINS modeling system for assessing a range of potential questions about the effects of climate change on streamflow and water quality in different watershed settings and us...

  12. Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod.

    PubMed

    Lindegren, Martin; Möllmann, Christian; Nielsen, Anders; Brander, Keith; MacKenzie, Brian R; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2010-07-22

    Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels and properly including uncertainty. The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how exploitation would have to be adjusted in order to achieve sustainable management under different climate scenarios.

  13. Human Responses to Climate Variability: The Case of South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oppenheimer, M.; Licker, R.; Mastrorillo, M.; Bohra-Mishra, P.; Estes, L. D.; Cai, R.

    2014-12-01

    Climate variability has been associated with a range of societal and individual outcomes including migration, violent conflict, changes in labor productivity, and health impacts. Some of these may be direct responses to changes in mean temperature or precipitation or extreme events, such as displacement of human populations by tropical cyclones. Others may be mediated by a variety of biological, social, or ecological factors such as migration in response to long-term changes in crops yields. Research is beginning to elucidate and distinguish the many channels through which climate variability may influence human behavior (ranging from the individual to the collective, societal level) in order to better understand how to improve resilience in the face of current variability as well as future climate change. Using a variety of data sets from South Africa, we show how climate variability has influenced internal (within country) migration in recent history. We focus on South Africa as it is a country with high levels of internal migration and dramatic temperature and precipitation changes projected for the 21st century. High poverty rates and significant levels of rain-fed, smallholder agriculture leave large portions of South Africa's population base vulnerable to future climate change. In this study, we utilize two complementary statistical models - one micro-level model, driven by individual and household level survey data, and one macro-level model, driven by national census statistics. In both models, we consider the effect of climate on migration both directly (with gridded climate reanalysis data) and indirectly (with agricultural production statistics). With our historical analyses of climate variability, we gain insights into how the migration decisions of South Africans may be influenced by future climate change. We also offer perspective on the utility of micro and macro level approaches in the study of climate change and human migration.

  14. Climate adaptation at the local level: case study Oakland, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooley, H.; Garzon, C.

    2011-12-01

    The numerous and complex effects of climate change, already beginning to be felt globally, will grow significantly in the coming decades. From rising seas to increases in unpredictable weather events, increased air pollution and wildfires, and changes in water supply, climate change will significantly reshape our natural and economic environment. Local, state, and federal governments are beginning to take action through the development of "action plans" and initiatives to prevent climate change from exacting its worst toll, as well as to prepare for its inevitable impacts. As communities become aware of distinct vulnerabilities to environmental risks, they need information about the types of policies and plans to put into place. This research project provides a detailed analysis of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options in Oakland, California. The goal of this effort is inform the development of a comprehensive and equitable climate adaptation plan for the City of Oakland. This research project engages community-based organizations and resident leaders in analyzing both the impacts of and vulnerabilities to climate change. Further, it enumerates policies for adaptation that can be implemented at the local level and discusses their advantages and disadvantages. The study provides a detailed picture of the challenges faced by local government in the coming years due to a changing climate and provides a model for other communities to use in developing adaptation strategies.

  15. WISE Finds Fewer Asteroids near Earth

    NASA Video Gallery

    New observations by NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, orWISE, show there are significantly fewer near-Earth asteroids in themid-size range than previously thought.› Asteroid and Come...

  16. Herschel Observations of Debris Disks from WISE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Padgett, D. L.; Stapelfeldt, K. R.; Liu, W.; Leisawitz, D. T.; Fajardo-Acosta, S.

    2012-01-01

    The \\Vide Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) has just completed a sensitive all-sky survey in photometric bands at 3.4, 4.6,12 and 22 microns. We report on a study of main sequence Hipparcos and Tycho catalog stars within 120 pc with WISE 22 micron emission in excess of photospheric levels. This warm excess emission traces material in the circumstellar region likely to host terrestrial planets and is preferentially found in young systems with ages < 1 Gyr. Nearly a hundred of the WISE new warm debris disk candidates detected among FGK stars are being observed by Herschel/PACS to characterize circumstellar dust. Preliminary results indicate 70 micron detection rates in excess of 80% for these targets, suggesting that most of these systems have both warm and cool dust in analogy to our asteroid and Kuiper belts. In this contribution, we will discuss the WISE debris disk survey and latest results from Herschel observations of these sources.

  17. The Piece Wise Linear Reactive Flow Model

    SciTech Connect

    Vitello, P; Souers, P C

    2005-08-18

    For non-ideal explosives a wide range of behavior is observed in experiments dealing with differing sizes and geometries. A predictive detonation model must be able to reproduce many phenomena including such effects as: variations in the detonation velocity with the radial diameter of rate sticks; slowing of the detonation velocity around gentle corners; production of dead zones for abrupt corner turning; failure of small diameter rate sticks; and failure for rate sticks with sufficiently wide cracks. Most models have been developed to explain one effect at a time. Often, changes are made in the input parameters used to fit each succeeding case with the implication that this is sufficient for the model to be valid over differing regimes. We feel that it is important to develop a model that is able to fit experiments with one set of parameters. To address this we are creating a new generation of models that are able to produce better fitting to individual data sets than prior models and to simultaneous fit distinctly different regimes of experiments. Presented here are details of our new Piece Wise Linear reactive flow model applied to LX-17.

  18. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices (2011 Final)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has released the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and D...

  19. The Waste Wise Schools Program: Evidence of Educational, Environmental, Social and Economic Outcomes at the School and Community Level

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Armstrong, Patricia; Sharpley, Brian; Malcolm, Stephen

    2004-01-01

    The Waste Wise Schools Program was established by EcoRecycle Victoria to implement waste and litter education in Victorian schools. It is now operating in over 900 schools in Victoria and 300 schools in other Australian states / territories. This paper provides detailed case studies of two active schools in the Waste Wise Schools Program and…

  20. One hundred years: A collective case study of climate change education in Georgia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bloch, Leonard Mark

    This collective case study examined how five K-12 science teachers taught about climate change during Fall 2013, and asked how the University of Georgia can support climate change education. The participants were all experienced teachers, and included: three high school teachers, a middle school teacher, and an elementary school teacher. 'Postcarbonism', an emerging theoretical framework, shaped the research and guided the analysis. The teachers varied in their teaching practices and in their conceptions of 'climate change', but they were united in: 1) their focus on mitigation over adaptation, and 2) presenting climate change as a remote problem with simple solutions. The teachers drew on varied resources, but in all cases, their most valuable resources were their own skills, knowledge and personality. The University of Georgia can support climate change education by developing locally relevant educational resources. Curriculum developers might consider building upon the work of outstanding teach.

  1. Leishmaniasis and Climate Change—Case Study: Argentina

    PubMed Central

    Salomón, Oscar Daniel; Quintana, María Gabriela; Mastrángelo, Andrea Verónica; Fernández, María Soledad

    2012-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases closely associated with the environment, such as leishmaniases, have been a usual argument about the deleterious impact of climate change on public health. From the biological point of view interaction of different variables has different and even conflicting effects on the survival of vectors and the probability transmission of pathogens. The results on ecoepidemiology of leishmaniasis in Argentina related to climate variables at different scales of space and time are presented. These studies showed that the changes in transmission due to change or increase in frequency and intensity of climatic instability were expressed through changes in the probability of vector-human reservoir effective contacts. These changes of contact in turn are modulated by both direct effects on the biology and ecology of the organisms involved, as by perceptions and changes in the behavior of the human communities at risk. Therefore, from the perspective of public health and state policy, and taking into account the current nonlinear increased velocity of climate change, we concluded that discussing the uncertainties of large-scale models will have lower impact than to develop-validate mitigation strategies to be operative at local level, and compatibles with sustainable development, conservation biodiversity, and respect for cultural diversity. PMID:22685477

  2. Investigating the case of human nose shape and climate adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Zaidi, Arslan A.; Claes, Peter; McEcoy, Brian; Shriver, Mark D.

    2017-01-01

    The evolutionary reasons for variation in nose shape across human populations have been subject to continuing debate. An import function of the nose and nasal cavity is to condition inspired air before it reaches the lower respiratory tract. For this reason, it is thought the observed differences in nose shape among populations are not simply the result of genetic drift, but may be adaptations to climate. To address the question of whether local adaptation to climate is responsible for nose shape divergence across populations, we use Qst–Fst comparisons to show that nares width and alar base width are more differentiated across populations than expected under genetic drift alone. To test whether this differentiation is due to climate adaptation, we compared the spatial distribution of these variables with the global distribution of temperature, absolute humidity, and relative humidity. We find that width of the nares is correlated with temperature and absolute humidity, but not with relative humidity. We conclude that some aspects of nose shape may indeed have been driven by local adaptation to climate. However, we think that this is a simplified explanation of a very complex evolutionary history, which possibly also involved other non-neutral forces such as sexual selection. PMID:28301464

  3. Recent Extremes in European Climate: Assessment, Case Studies and Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yiou, P.; Vautard, R.; D'Andrea, F.; Cattiaux, J.; Naveau, P.; Ciais, P.; Garnier, E.

    2008-12-01

    During the last centuries and up to the present decade, extreme climate events have certainly had larger economic impacts than any trend of temperature in Europe. In addition to an intrinsic scientific interest, their study is thus essential for society. One of the challenges of their investigation is that, depending on their definition, extreme climate events potentially have a behavior that is not connected to the secular temperature trend in a simple fashion. This presentation will review the statistical assessments of extremes in Europe, focusing on surface temperature, precipitation, and their connections with large-scale features of the atmospheric circulation. In particular, the questions of modeling their severity and frequency will be discussed in the first part of the presentation. I will then give two kinds of examples of European climate extremes: summer heatwaves and droughts, and winter warm waves. The mechanisms leading to such phenomena will be explored, and I will examine some of the impacts on the biosphere that were recently observed. In order to provide a long term perspective of those events, examples of historical droughts in France will be presented and connected with proxy records of temperature. It appears that the mechanisms that are favored for present-day climate might still have been valid during the past centuries. To conclude, new challenges for dynamical and statistical modeling will be explored.

  4. Leishmaniasis and climate change-case study: Argentina.

    PubMed

    Salomón, Oscar Daniel; Quintana, María Gabriela; Mastrángelo, Andrea Verónica; Fernández, María Soledad

    2012-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases closely associated with the environment, such as leishmaniases, have been a usual argument about the deleterious impact of climate change on public health. From the biological point of view interaction of different variables has different and even conflicting effects on the survival of vectors and the probability transmission of pathogens. The results on ecoepidemiology of leishmaniasis in Argentina related to climate variables at different scales of space and time are presented. These studies showed that the changes in transmission due to change or increase in frequency and intensity of climatic instability were expressed through changes in the probability of vector-human reservoir effective contacts. These changes of contact in turn are modulated by both direct effects on the biology and ecology of the organisms involved, as by perceptions and changes in the behavior of the human communities at risk. Therefore, from the perspective of public health and state policy, and taking into account the current nonlinear increased velocity of climate change, we concluded that discussing the uncertainties of large-scale models will have lower impact than to develop-validate mitigation strategies to be operative at local level, and compatibles with sustainable development, conservation biodiversity, and respect for cultural diversity.

  5. Investigating the case of human nose shape and climate adaptation.

    PubMed

    Zaidi, Arslan A; Mattern, Brooke C; Claes, Peter; McEcoy, Brian; Hughes, Cris; Shriver, Mark D

    2017-03-01

    The evolutionary reasons for variation in nose shape across human populations have been subject to continuing debate. An import function of the nose and nasal cavity is to condition inspired air before it reaches the lower respiratory tract. For this reason, it is thought the observed differences in nose shape among populations are not simply the result of genetic drift, but may be adaptations to climate. To address the question of whether local adaptation to climate is responsible for nose shape divergence across populations, we use Qst-Fst comparisons to show that nares width and alar base width are more differentiated across populations than expected under genetic drift alone. To test whether this differentiation is due to climate adaptation, we compared the spatial distribution of these variables with the global distribution of temperature, absolute humidity, and relative humidity. We find that width of the nares is correlated with temperature and absolute humidity, but not with relative humidity. We conclude that some aspects of nose shape may indeed have been driven by local adaptation to climate. However, we think that this is a simplified explanation of a very complex evolutionary history, which possibly also involved other non-neutral forces such as sexual selection.

  6. Non-linearity dynamics in ecosystem response to climate change: Case studies and policy implications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burkett, V.R.; Wilcox, D.A.; Stottlemyer, R.; Barrow, W.; Fagre, D.; Baron, J.; Nielsen, J.L.; Allen, C.D.; Peterson, D.L.; Ruggerone, G.; Doyle, T.

    2005-01-01

    Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate cna lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

  7. Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burkett, Virginia R.; Wilcox, Douglas A.; Stottlemyer, Robert; Barrow, Wylie; Fagre, Dan; Baron, Jill; Price, Jeff; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Allen, Craig D.; Peterson, David L.; Ruggerone, Greg; Doyle, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

  8. GridWise Standards Mapping Overview

    SciTech Connect

    Bosquet, Mia L.

    2004-04-01

    ''GridWise'' is a concept of how advanced communications, information and controls technology can transform the nation's energy system--across the spectrum of large scale, central generation to common consumer appliances and equipment--into a collaborative network, rich in the exchange of decision making information and an abundance of market-based opportunities (Widergren and Bosquet 2003) accompanying the electric transmission and distribution system fully into the information and telecommunication age. This report summarizes a broad review of standards efforts which are related to GridWise--those which could ultimately contribute significantly to advancements toward the GridWise vision, or those which represent today's current technological basis upon which this vision must build.

  9. Infrared Photometry of GEO Spacecraft with WISE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, C.; Seitzer, P.; Cutri, R.; Grillmair, C.; Schildknecht, T.

    2016-09-01

    NASA launched the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) into orbit on December 2009 with a mission to scan the entire sky in the infrared in four wavelength bands of 3.4, 4.6, 12, and 22 microns. WISE acquired data in the four bands for 10 months until the solid hydrogen cryogen was depleted and then proceeded to operate in the two shorter wavelength bands for an additional four months in a Post-Cryo phase. In its trove of data, WISE captured many streaks that were artificial satellites in orbit around Earth. We have examined a subset of equatorial WISE images with |declination| < 15.0 degrees to find geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) station-keeping satellites. Furthermore, we require |galactic latitude| > 30 degrees in order to minimize contamination of the satellite streaks by stars in the galactic plane. At least one streak of the length appropriate for a GEO station-keeping satellite appears in over 10% of these images. In bands 1 through 3 (for images 1016x1016 in size), the streaks are approximately 100 pixels in length, and in band 4 (for images 508x508 in size), the streaks are approximately 50 pixels in length. Most, but not all, of these spacecraft appear in all 4 wavelength bands. Since WISE is in a Sun-synchronous orbit pointed approximately radially away from the Earth at all times, all observations of GEO objects were obtained at a solar phase angle of approximately 90 degrees. We report on the color distributions of these detections and interpret the colors and compare the spacecraft colors with colors of other astronomical objects such as stars, galaxies, and asteroids that have appeared in previously published works on WISE data.

  10. The case for a wet, warm climate on early Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pollack, J. B.; Kasting, J. F.; Richardson, S. M.; Poliakoff, K.

    1987-08-01

    The conditions under which Mars could have had a warm wet climate during its early evolution are explored by means of numerical simulations, incorporating more accurate data on the opacity of gaseous CO2 and H2O in the solar and thermal spectral regions (McClatchey et al., 1971) into the one-dimensional radiative-convective greenhouse model of Kasting and Ackerman (1986). The results are presented in extensive graphs and characterized in detail, with consideration of atmospheric CO2 loss rates, sources of atmospheric CO2, CO2 partitioning between atmosphere and hydrosphere, the Mars volatile inventory, the CO2 geochemical cycle, climate evolution, and observational tests. It is concluded that greenhouse conditions (requiring atmospheric CO2 of 1-5 bar) could have existed for a period of about 1 Gyr if the total surficial inventory of CO2 was 2-10 bar.

  11. The case for a wet, warm climate on early Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pollack, J. B.; Kasting, J. F.; Richardson, S. M.; Poliakoff, K.

    1987-01-01

    The conditions under which Mars could have had a warm wet climate during its early evolution are explored by means of numerical simulations, incorporating more accurate data on the opacity of gaseous CO2 and H2O in the solar and thermal spectral regions (McClatchey et al., 1971) into the one-dimensional radiative-convective greenhouse model of Kasting and Ackerman (1986). The results are presented in extensive graphs and characterized in detail, with consideration of atmospheric CO2 loss rates, sources of atmospheric CO2, CO2 partitioning between atmosphere and hydrosphere, the Mars volatile inventory, the CO2 geochemical cycle, climate evolution, and observational tests. It is concluded that greenhouse conditions (requiring atmospheric CO2 of 1-5 bar) could have existed for a period of about 1 Gyr if the total surficial inventory of CO2 was 2-10 bar.

  12. Climate change and soil salinity: The case of coastal Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Dasgupta, Susmita; Hossain, Md Moqbul; Huq, Mainul; Wheeler, David

    2015-12-01

    This paper estimates location-specific soil salinity in coastal Bangladesh for 2050. The analysis was conducted in two stages: First, changes in soil salinity for the period 2001-2009 were assessed using information recorded at 41 soil monitoring stations by the Soil Research Development Institute. Using these data, a spatial econometric model was estimated linking soil salinity with the salinity of nearby rivers, land elevation, temperature, and rainfall. Second, future soil salinity for 69 coastal sub-districts was projected from climate-induced changes in river salinity and projections of rainfall and temperature based on time trends for 20 Bangladesh Meteorological Department weather stations in the coastal region. The findings indicate that climate change poses a major soil salinization risk in coastal Bangladesh. Across 41 monitoring stations, the annual median projected change in soil salinity is 39 % by 2050. Above the median, 25 % of all stations have projected changes of 51 % or higher.

  13. Changing Family Habits: A Case Study into Climate Change Mitigation Behavior in Families

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leger, Michel T.; Pruneau, Diane

    2012-01-01

    A case-study methodology was used to explore the process of change as experienced by 3 suburban families in an attempt to incorporate climate change mitigation behavior into their day to day life. Cross-case analysis of the findings revealed the emergence of three major conceptual themes associated with behavior adoption: collectively applied…

  14. Embracing Uncertainty: A Case Study Examination of How Climate Change is Shifting Water Utility Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaatz, L.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change has emerged as one of the greatest challenges facing water utilities' planning for the future, adding a new source and level of complexity that is forcing many agencies to re-examine their decision-making processes. A significant barrier for many agencies is figuring out how to consider highly uncertain climate information and move away from deterministic thinking to make climate-informed decisions. To provide water professionals with practical and relevant information, the Water Utility Climate Alliance teamed up with the American Water Works Association, in coordination with the Water Research Foundation and Association of Metropolitan Water Agencies, to develop a white paper sharing insights into how and why water agencies are modifying planning and decision-making processes. The 13 case studies presented illustrate the variety of ways in which utilities are incorporating climate change into planning, from immediate operational decisions, to capital planning and asset management, to long-term supply planning.

  15. The case for a wet, warm climate on early Mars.

    PubMed

    Pollack, J B; Kasting, J F; Richardson, S M; Poliakoff, K

    1987-01-01

    Theoretical arguments are presented in support of the idea that Mars possessed a dense CO2 atmosphere and a wet, warm climate early in its history. Calculations with a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model indicate that CO2 pressures between 1 and 5 bars would have been required to keep the surface temperature above the freezing point of water early in the planet's history. The higher value corresponds to globally and orbitally averaged conditions and a 30% reduction in solar luminosity; the lower value corresponds to conditions at the equator during perihelion at times of high orbital eccentricity and the same reduced solar luminosity. The plausibility of such a CO2 greenhouse is tested by formulating a simple model of the CO2 geochemical cycle on early Mars. By appropriately scaling the rate of silicate weathering on present Earth, we estimate a weathering time constant of the order of several times 10(7) years for early Mars. Thus, a dense atmosphere could have persisted for a geologically significant time period (approximately 10(9) years) only if atmospheric CO2 was being continuously resupplied. The most likely mechanism by which this might have been accomplished is the thermal decomposition of carbonate rocks induced directly and indirectly (through burial) by intense, global-scale volcanism. For plausible values of the early heat flux, the recycling time constant is also of the order of several times 10(7) years. The amount of CO2 dissolved in standing bodies of water was probably small; thus, the total surficial CO2 inventory required to maintain these conditions was approximately 2 to 10 bars. The amount of CO2 in Mars' atmosphere would eventually have dwindled, and the climate cooled, as the planet's internal heat engine ran down. A test for this theory will be provided by spectroscopic searches for carbonates in Mars' crust.

  16. Case studies of extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marengo, Jose A.; Hastenrath, Stefan

    1993-01-01

    The present exploration of climate-anomaly mechanisms, on the basis of surface-climatological and hydrological series, as well as upper-air and satellite observations, gives attention to the March-April rainy season peak in northern Amazonia. While the moderately wet year 1986 exhibited a far-southerly location of the Atlantic near-equatorial trough, and an embedded intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), the extremely dry El Nino year 1983 featured a more northerly ITCZ. Major mechanisms of extreme rainfall events are synthesized on the basis of these analyses.

  17. Climate change and health in sub-Saharan Africa: a case-based perspective.

    PubMed

    Ramin, Brodie Morgan; McMichael, Anthony J

    2009-03-01

    Over the coming decades, sub-Saharan Africa will face profound stresses and challenges from global climate change. Many of these will manifest as adverse health outcomes. This article uses a series of five hypothetical cases to review the climate impacts on the health and well-being of individuals and populations in sub-Saharan Africa. This approach fosters insights into the human dimensions of the risks to health, their interaction with local human ecology, and awareness of the diverse health ramifications of external environmental changes. Each case illustrates the health impact resulting from a specific environmental or social consequence of climate change, including impacts on agriculture and food security, droughts, floods, malaria, and population displacement. Whereas the article focuses on discrete manifestations of climate change, individuals will, in practice, face multiple stresses from climate change (i.e., floods and malaria) concomitant with other non-climate stressors (i.e., HIV/AIDS, globalization, etc.). These multiple sources of vulnerability must be considered when designing climate change and socioeconomic development interventions.

  18. Case series of equine pituitary pars intermedia dysfunction in a tropical climate.

    PubMed

    Spelta, C W; Axon, J E

    2012-11-01

    The clinical manifestations of equine pituitary pars intermedia dysfunction (PPID) in temperate climates are well described. The classic presentation is that of an older animal with hirsutism, laminitis, poor muscle tone, pendulous abdomen and weight loss. This case series highlights the additional clinical signs of anhidrosis and heat stress with secondary exercise intolerance that were seen as primary presenting problems in equids with PPID in the hot, humid conditions of a tropical climate. The clinical signs resolved with medical treatment for PPID.

  19. SunWise[R] Meteorologist Tool Kit

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    US Environmental Protection Agency, 2007

    2007-01-01

    The SunWise Program is designed to help meteorologists raise sun safety awareness by addressing the science of the sun, the risk of overexposure to its ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and what students and their families can do to protect themselves from overexposure. This Tool Kit has been designed for use all over the United States and its…

  20. Teaching Children To Be Test Wise.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bates, Percy; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Test-wiseness is discussed in the newsletter of Programs for Educational Opportunity (PEO), a combined race, gender, and national origin desegregation assistance center providing technical information to eligible public schools in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. PEO is based on the belief that specific teaching of test…

  1. Test-Wiseness: A Cognitive Function?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woodley, Katheryn K.

    This paper reports the findings of an attempt to improve test-wiseness (TW) through direct instruction in selected test-taking strategies. TW was defined as "a cognitive function, subject to improvement through both general exposure to a wide variety of test items, and specific training in test-taking skills." The total investigation included:…

  2. Diving deaths - use words wisely.

    PubMed

    Capps, Roger

    2008-03-01

    Dear Editor, I have just been reading the article by Andrew McClelland in the last issue and am suffering from the horrors and sleepless nights! In case report SC 03-01, for example (the healthy [sic] diver with a BMI of 36.5), it is reported "the deceased rapidly found it hard to swim". Was this establishing rigor mortis? The thought of "the deceased panicked and had a knife in his hands" and later, "the deceased was lunging with the knife" brings back to mind some zombie-type horror movies. Could you please give these articles a suitable warning rating?

  3. Climatic factors influencing dengue cases in Dhaka city: A model for dengue prediction

    PubMed Central

    Karim, Md. Nazmul; Munshi, Saif Ullah; Anwar, Nazneen; Alam, Md. Shah

    2012-01-01

    Background & objectives: Transmission of dengue virus depends on the presence of Aedes mosquito. Mosquito generation and development is known to be influenced by the climate. This study was carried out to examine whether the climatic factors data can be used to predict yearly dengue cases of Dhaka city, Bangladesh. Methods: Monthly reported dengue cases and climate data for the years 2000–2008 were obtained from the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) and Meteorological Department of Dhaka, Bangladesh, respectively. Data for the period 2000 to 2007 were used for development of a model through multiple linear regressions. Retrospective validation of the model was done with 2001, 2003, 2005 and 2008 data. Log transformation of the dependent variable was done to normalize data for linear regression. Average monthly humidity, rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature were used as independent variables and number of dengue cases reported monthly was used as dependent variable. Accuracy of the model for predicting outbreak was assessed through receiver operative characteristics (ROC) curve. Results: Climatic factors, i.e. rainfall, maximum temperature and relative humidity were significantly correlated with monthly reported dengue cases. The model incorporating climatic data of two-lag month explained 61 per cent of variation in number of reported dengue cases and this model was found to predict dengue outbreak (≥ 200 cases) with considerable accuracy [area under ROC curve = 0.89, 95%CI = (0.89-0.98)]. Interpretation & conclusions: Our results showed that the climate had a major effect on the occurrence of dengue infection in Dhaka city. Though the prediction model had some limitations in predicting the monthly number of dengue cases, it could forecast possible outbreak two months in advance with considerable accuracy. PMID:22885261

  4. Climate services for the assessment of climate change impacts and risks in coastal areas at the regional scale: the North Adriatic case study (Italy).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valentina, Gallina; Torresan, Silvia; Giannini, Valentina; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Gualdi, Silvio; Bellucci, Alessio; Giorgi, Filippo; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    At the international level, the interest for climate services is rising due to the social and economic benefits that different stakeholders can achieve to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), the case study of the North Adriatic Sea is aimed at analysing the need of climate information and the effectiveness of climate services for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones of the North Adriatic Sea at the regional to local scale. A participative approach was developed and applied to identify relevant stakeholders which have a mandate for coastal zone management and to interact with them in order to elicit their climate information needs. Specifically, the participative approach was carried out by means of two local workshops and trough the administration of a questionnaire related to climate information and services. The results of the process allowed identifying three major themes of interest for local stakeholders (i.e. hydro-climatic regime, coastal and marine environment, agriculture) and their preferences concerning key climate variables (e.g. extreme events, sea-level, wave height), mid-term temporal projections (i.e. for the next 30-40 years) and medium-high spatial resolution (i.e. from 1 to 50 km). Furthermore, the workshops highlighted stakeholder concern about several climate-related impacts (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surge, droughts) and vulnerable receptors (e.g. beaches, wetlands, agricultural areas) to be considered in vulnerability and risk assessment studies for the North Adriatic coastal zones. This information was used by climate and environmental risk experts in order to develop targeted climate information and

  5. Climate adaptation as mitigation: the case of agricultural investments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobell, David B.; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas W.

    2013-03-01

    Successful adaptation of agriculture to ongoing climate changes would help to maintain productivity growth and thereby reduce pressure to bring new lands into agriculture. In this paper we investigate the potential co-benefits of adaptation in terms of the avoided emissions from land use change. A model of global agricultural trade and land use, called SIMPLE, is utilized to link adaptation investments, yield growth rates, land conversion rates, and land use emissions. A scenario of global adaptation to offset negative yield impacts of temperature and precipitation changes to 2050, which requires a cumulative 225 billion USD of additional investment, results in 61 Mha less conversion of cropland and 15 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) fewer emissions by 2050. Thus our estimates imply an annual mitigation co-benefit of 0.35 GtCO2e yr-1 while spending 15 per tonne CO2e of avoided emissions. Uncertainty analysis is used to estimate a 5-95% confidence interval around these numbers of 0.25-0.43 Gt and 11-22 per tonne CO2e. A scenario of adaptation focused only on Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, while less costly in aggregate, results in much smaller mitigation potentials and higher per tonne costs. These results indicate that although investing in the least developed areas may be most desirable for the main objectives of adaptation, it has little net effect on mitigation because production gains are offset by greater rates of land clearing in the benefited regions, which are relatively low yielding and land abundant. Adaptation investments in high yielding, land scarce regions such as Asia and North America are more effective for mitigation. To identify data needs, we conduct a sensitivity analysis using the Morris method (Morris 1991 Technometrics 33 161-74). The three most critical parameters for improving estimates of mitigation potential are (in descending order) the emissions factors for converting land to agriculture, the price elasticity of land supply

  6. The case for a wet, warm climate on early Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pollack, J. B.; Kasting, J. F.; Richardson, S. M.; Poliakoff, K.

    1987-05-01

    Arguments are presented in support of the idea that Mars possessed a dense CO2 atmosphere and a wet, warm climate early in its history. The plausibility of a CO2 greenhouse is tested by formulating a simple model of the CO2 geochemical cycle on early Mars. By scaling the rate of silicate weathering on Earth, researchers estimated a weathering time constant of the order of several times 10 to the 7th power years for early Mars. Thus, a dense atmosphere could have existed for a geologically significant time period (approx. 10 to the 9th power years) only if atmospheric CO2 was being continuously resupplied. The most likely mechanism by which this could have been accomplished is the thermal decomposition of carbonate rocks induced directly or indirectly by intense, global scale volcanism.

  7. The case for a wet, warm climate on early Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pollack, J. B.; Kasting, J. F.; Richardson, S. M.; Poliakoff, K.

    1987-01-01

    Arguments are presented in support of the idea that Mars possessed a dense CO2 atmosphere and a wet, warm climate early in its history. The plausibility of a CO2 greenhouse is tested by formulating a simple model of the CO2 geochemical cycle on early Mars. By scaling the rate of silicate weathering on Earth, researchers estimated a weathering time constant of the order of several times 10 to the 7th power years for early Mars. Thus, a dense atmosphere could have existed for a geologically significant time period (approx. 10 to the 9th power years) only if atmospheric CO2 was being continuously resupplied. The most likely mechanism by which this could have been accomplished is the thermal decomposition of carbonate rocks induced directly or indirectly by intense, global scale volcanism.

  8. A Case Study: Climate Change Decision Support for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, Flint Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Day, G. N.; McMahon, G.; Friesen, N.; Carney, S.

    2011-12-01

    Riverside Technology, inc. has developed a Climate Change Decision Support System (DSS) to provide water managers with a tool to explore a range of current Global Climate Model (GCM) projections to evaluate their potential impacts on streamflow and the reliability of future water supplies. The system was developed as part of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project. The DSS uses downscaled GCM data as input to small-scale watershed models to produce time series of projected undepleted streamflow for various emission scenarios and GCM simulations. Until recently, water managers relied on historical streamflow data for water resources planning. In many parts of the country, great effort has been put into estimating long-term historical undepleted streamflow accounting for regulation, diversions, and return flows to support planning and water rights administration. In some cases, longer flow records have been constructed using paleohydrologic data in an attempt to capture climate variability beyond what is evident during the observed historical record. Now, many water managers are recognizing that historical data may not be representative of an uncertain climate future, and they have begun to explore the use of climate projections in their water resources planning. The Climate Change DSS was developed to support water managers in planning by accounting for both climate variability and potential climate change. In order to use the information for impact analysis, the projected streamflow time series can be exported and substituted for the historical streamflow data traditionally applied in their system operations models for water supply planning. This paper presents a case study in which climate-adjusted flows are coupled with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ResSim model for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint (ACF) River basins. The study demonstrates how climate scenarios can be used

  9. The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranger, N.; Surminski, S.

    2012-04-01

    Session ERE5.1 Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand. Over the past decade, growth in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) economies has been a key driver of global economic growth. Current forecasts suggest that these markets will continue to be areas of significant growth for a large number of industries. We consider how climate change may influence these trends in the period to 2030, a time horizon that is long in terms of strategic planning in industry, but relatively short for climate change analysis, where the impacts are predicted to be most significant beyond around 2050. Based on current evidence, we expect climate change to affect the BRICS economies in four main ways: 1. The impact of physical climatic changes on the productivity of climate-sensitive economic activity, the local environment, human health and wellbeing, and damages from extreme weather. 2. Changing patterns of investment in climate risk management and adaptation 3. Changing patterns of investments in areas affected by greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy, 4. The impacts of the above globally, including on international trade, growth, investment, policy, migration and commodity prices, and their impacts on the BRICS. We review the evidence on the impacts of climate change in the BRICS and then apply this to one particular industry sector: non-life insurance. We propose five potential pathways through which climate change could influence insurance demand: economic growth; willingness to pay for insurance; public policy and regulation; the insurability of natural catastrophe risks; and new opportunities associated with adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. We conclude that, with the exception of public policy and regulation, the influence of climate change on insurance demand to 2030 is likely to be small when compared with the expected growth due to rising

  10. Towards automatic classification of all WISE sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurcz, A.; Bilicki, M.; Solarz, A.; Krupa, M.; Pollo, A.; Małek, K.

    2016-07-01

    Context. The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) has detected hundreds of millions of sources over the entire sky. Classifying them reliably is, however, a challenging task owing to degeneracies in WISE multicolour space and low levels of detection in its two longest-wavelength bandpasses. Simple colour cuts are often not sufficient; for satisfactory levels of completeness and purity, more sophisticated classification methods are needed. Aims: Here we aim to obtain comprehensive and reliable star, galaxy, and quasar catalogues based on automatic source classification in full-sky WISE data. This means that the final classification will employ only parameters available from WISE itself, in particular those which are reliably measured for the majority of sources. Methods: For the automatic classification we applied a supervised machine learning algorithm, support vector machines (SVM). It requires a training sample with relevant classes already identified, and we chose to use the SDSS spectroscopic dataset (DR10) for that purpose. We tested the performance of two kernels used by the classifier, and determined the minimum number of sources in the training set required to achieve stable classification, as well as the minimum dimension of the parameter space. We also tested SVM classification accuracy as a function of extinction and apparent magnitude. Thus, the calibrated classifier was finally applied to all-sky WISE data, flux-limited to 16 mag (Vega) in the 3.4 μm channel. Results: By calibrating on the test data drawn from SDSS, we first established that a polynomial kernel is preferred over a radial one for this particular dataset. Next, using three classification parameters (W1 magnitude, W1-W2 colour, and a differential aperture magnitude) we obtained very good classification efficiency in all the tests. At the bright end, the completeness for stars and galaxies reaches ~95%, deteriorating to ~80% at W1 = 16 mag, while for quasars it stays at a level of

  11. Does reflection lead to wise choices?

    PubMed Central

    Bortolotti, Lisa

    2011-01-01

    Does conscious reflection lead to good decision-making? Whereas engaging in reflection is traditionally thought to be the best way to make wise choices, recent psychological evidence undermines the role of reflection in lay and expert judgement. The literature suggests that thinking about reasons does not improve the choices people make, and that experts do not engage in reflection, but base their judgements on intuition, often shaped by extensive previous experience. Can we square the traditional accounts of wisdom with the results of these empirical studies? Should we even attempt to? I shall defend the view that philosophy and cognitive sciences genuinely interact in tackling questions such as whether reflection leads to making wise choices. PMID:22408385

  12. Warm Debris Disk Candidates from WISE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Padgett, Deborah; Stapelfeldt, Karl; Liu, Wilson; Leisawitz, David

    2011-01-01

    The Wide Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) has just completed a sensitive all-sky survey in photometric bands at 3.4, 4.6, 12, and 22 microns. We report on a preliminary investigation of main sequence Hipparcos and Tycho catalog stars with 22 micron emission in excess of photospheric levels. This warm excess emission traces material in the circumstellar region likely to host terrestrial planets and is preferentially found in young systems with ages < 1 Gyr. Nearly a hundred new warm debris disk candidates are detected among FGK stars and 150 A stars within 120 pc. We are in the process of obtaining spectra to determine spectral types and activity level of these stars and are using HST, Herschel and Keck to characterize the dust, multiplicity, and substellar companions of these systems. In this contribution, we will discuss source selection methods and individual examples from among the WISE debris disk candidates.

  13. SUBMILLIMETER FOLLOW-UP OF WISE-SELECTED HYPERLUMINOUS GALAXIES

    SciTech Connect

    Wu Jingwen; Eisenhardt, Peter R. M.; Stern, Daniel; Assef, Roberto; Tsai, Chao-Wei; Cutri, Roc; Griffith, Roger; Jarrett, Thomas; Sayers, Jack; Bridge, Carrie; Benford, Dominic; Blain, Andrew; Petty, Sara; Lake, Sean; Bussmann, Shane; Comerford, Julia M.; Evans, Neal J. II; Lonsdale, Carol; Rho, Jeonghee; Stanford, S. Adam; and others

    2012-09-01

    We have used the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory (CSO) to follow-up a sample of Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) selected, hyperluminous galaxies, the so-called W1W2-dropout galaxies. This is a rare ({approx}1000 all-sky) population of galaxies at high redshift (peaks at z = 2-3), which are faint or undetected by WISE at 3.4 and 4.6 {mu}m, yet are clearly detected at 12 and 22 {mu}m. The optical spectra of most of these galaxies show significant active galactic nucleus activity. We observed 14 high-redshift (z > 1.7) W1W2-dropout galaxies with SHARC-II at 350-850 {mu}m, with nine detections, and observed 18 with Bolocam at 1.1 mm, with five detections. Warm Spitzer follow-up of 25 targets at 3.6 and 4.5 {mu}m, as well as optical spectra of 12 targets, are also presented in the paper. Combining WISE data with observations from warm Spitzer and CSO, we constructed their mid-IR to millimeter spectral energy distributions (SEDs). These SEDs have a consistent shape, showing significantly higher mid-IR to submillimeter ratios than other galaxy templates, suggesting a hotter dust temperature. We estimate their dust temperatures to be 60-120 K using a single-temperature model. Their infrared luminosities are well over 10{sup 13} L{sub Sun }. These SEDs are not well fitted with existing galaxy templates, suggesting they are a new population with very high luminosity and hot dust. They are likely among the most luminous galaxies in the universe. We argue that they are extreme cases of luminous, hot dust-obscured galaxies (DOGs), possibly representing a short evolutionary phase during galaxy merging and evolution. A better understanding of their long-wavelength properties needs ALMA as well as Herschel data.

  14. Submillimeter Follow-up of Wise-Selected Hyperluminous Galaxies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Jingwen; Tsai, Chao-Wei; Sayers, Jack; Benford, Dominic; Bridge, Carrie; Blain, Andrew; Eisenhardt, Peter R. M.; Stern, Daniel; Petty, Sara; Assef, Roberto; Bussmann, Shane; Comerford, Julia M.; Cutri, Roc; Evans, Neal J., II; Griffith, Roger; Jarrett, Thomas; Lake, Sean; Lonsdale, Carol; Rho, Jeonghee; Stanford, S. Adam

    2013-01-01

    We have used the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory (CSO) to follow-up a sample of Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) selected, hyperluminous galaxies, the so-called W1W2-dropout galaxies. This is a rare (approximately 1000 all-sky) population of galaxies at high redshift (peaks at zeta = 2-3), which are faint or undetected by WISE at 3.4 and 4.6 micrometers, yet are clearly detected at 12 and 22 micrometers. The optical spectra of most of these galaxies show significant active galactic nucleus activity. We observed 14 high-redshift (zeta greater than 1.7) W1W2-dropout galaxies with SHARC-II at 350-850 micrometers, with nine detections, and observed 18 with Bolocam at 1.1 mm, with five detections. Warm Spitzer follow-up of 25 targets at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers, as well as optical spectra of 12 targets, are also presented in the paper. Combining WISE data with observations from warm Spitzer and CSO, we constructed their mid-IR to millimeter spectral energy distributions (SEDs). These SEDs have a consistent shape, showing significantly higher mid-IR to submillimeter ratios than other galaxy templates, suggesting a hotter dust temperature.We estimate their dust temperatures to be 60-120 K using a single-temperature model. Their infrared luminosities are well over 10(exp 13) solar luminosity. These SEDs are not well fitted with existing galaxy templates, suggesting they are a new population with very high luminosity and hot dust. They are likely among the most luminous galaxies in the universe.We argue that they are extreme cases of luminous, hot dust-obscured galaxies (DOGs), possibly representing a short evolutionary phase during galaxy merging and evolution. A better understanding of their long-wavelength properties needs ALMA as well as Herschel data.

  15. Submillimeter Follow-Up of WISE-Selected Hyperluminous Galaxies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Jingwen; Tsai, Chao-Wei; Sayers, Jack; Benford, Dominic; Bridge, Carrie; Blain, Andrew; Eisenhardt, Peter R.; Stern, Daniel; Petty, Sara; Assef, Roberto; Bussmann, Shane; Comerford, Julia M.; Cutri, Roc; Evans, Neal J., II; Griffith, Roger; Jarrett, Thomas; Lake, Sean; Lonsdale, Carol; Rho, Jeonghee; Stanford, S. Adam; Weiner, Benjamin; Wright, Edward L.; Yan, Lin

    2012-01-01

    We have used the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory (CSO) to follow-up a sample of Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) selected, hyperluminous galaxies, the so-called W1W2-dropout galaxies. This is a rare (approx.1000 all-sky) population of galaxies at high redshift (peaks at z = 2-3), which are faint or undetected by WISE at 3.4 and 4.6 microns, yet are clearly detected at 12 and 22 microns. The optical spectra of most of these galaxies show significant active galactic nucleus activity. We observed 14 high-redshift (z > 1.7) W1W2-dropout galaxies with SHARC-II at 350-850 microns, with nine detections, and observed 18 with Bolocam at 1.1 mm, with five detections. Warm Spitzer follow-up of 25 targets at 3.6 and 4.5 microns, as well as optical spectra of 12 targets, are also presented in the paper. Combining WISE data with observations from warm Spitzer and CSO, we constructed their mid-IR to millimeter spectral energy distributions (SEDs). These SEDs have a consistent shape, showing significantly higher mid-IR to submillimeter ratios than other galaxy templates, suggesting a hotter dust temperature.We estimate their dust temperatures to be 60 C120 K using a single-temperature model. Their infrared luminosities are well over 10(exp 13) Stellar Luminosity. These SEDs are not well fitted with existing galaxy templates, suggesting they are a new population with very high luminosity and hot dust. They are likely among the most luminous galaxies in the universe.We argue that they are extreme cases of luminous, hot dust-obscured galaxies (DOGs), possibly representing a short evolutionary phase during galaxy merging and evolution. A better understanding of their long-wavelength properties needs ALMA as well as Herschel data.

  16. THE MOST LUMINOUS GALAXIES DISCOVERED BY WISE

    SciTech Connect

    Tsai, Chao-Wei; Eisenhardt, Peter R. M.; Stern, Daniel; Moustakas, Leonidas A.; Wu, Jingwen; Wright, Edward L.; Assef, Roberto J.; Blain, Andrew W.; Bridge, Carrie R.; Sayers, Jack; Benford, Dominic J.; Leisawitz, David T.; Cutri, Roc M.; Masci, Frank J.; Yan, Lin; Griffith, Roger L.; Jarrett, Thomas H.; Lonsdale, Carol J.; Petty, Sara M.; Stanford, S. Adam; and others

    2015-06-01

    We present 20 Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE)-selected galaxies with bolometric luminosities L{sub bol} > 10{sup 14} L{sub ☉}, including five with infrared luminosities L{sub IR} ≡ L{sub (rest} {sub 8–1000} {sub μm)} > 10{sup 14} L{sub ☉}. These “extremely luminous infrared galaxies,” or ELIRGs, were discovered using the “W1W2-dropout” selection criteria which requires marginal or non-detections at 3.4 and 4.6 μm (W1 and W2, respectively) but strong detections at 12 and 22 μm in the WISE survey. Their spectral energy distributions are dominated by emission at rest-frame 4–10 μm, suggesting that hot dust with T{sub d} ∼ 450 K is responsible for the high luminosities. These galaxies are likely powered by highly obscured active galactic nuclei (AGNs), and there is no evidence suggesting these systems are beamed or lensed. We compare this WISE-selected sample with 116 optically selected quasars that reach the same L{sub bol} level, corresponding to the most luminous unobscured quasars in the literature. We find that the rest-frame 5.8 and 7.8 μm luminosities of the WISE-selected ELIRGs can be 30%–80% higher than that of the unobscured quasars. The existence of AGNs with L{sub bol} > 10{sup 14} L{sub ☉} at z > 3 suggests that these supermassive black holes are born with large mass, or have very rapid mass assembly. For black hole seed masses ∼10{sup 3} M{sub ☉}, either sustained super-Eddington accretion is needed, or the radiative efficiency must be <15%, implying a black hole with slow spin, possibly due to chaotic accretion.

  17. Communicating for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from a Case Study with Nature-Based Tour Operators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timm, K.; Sparrow, E. B.; Pettit, E. C.; Trainor, S. F.; Taylor, K.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing temperatures are projected to have a positive effect on the length of Alaska's tourism season, but the natural attractions that tourism relies on, such as glaciers, wildlife, fish, or other natural resources, may change. In order to continue to derive benefits from these resources, nature-based tour operators may have to adapt to these changes, and communication is an essential, but poorly understood, component of the climate change adaptation process. The goal of this study was to determine how to provide useful climate change information to nature-based tour operators by answering the following questions: 1. What environmental changes do nature-based tour operators perceive? 2. How are nature-based tour operators responding to climate and environmental change? 3. What climate change information do nature-based tour operators need? To answer these questions, twenty-four nature-based tour operators representing 20 different small and medium sized businesses in Juneau, Alaska were interviewed. The results show that many of Juneau's nature-based tour operators are observing, responding to, and in some cases, actively planning for further changes in the environment. The types of responses tended to vary depending on the participants' certainty in climate change and the perceived risks to their organization. Using these two factors, this study proposes a framework to classify climate change responses for the purpose of generating meaningful information and communication processes that promote adaptation and build adaptive capacity. During the course of the study, several other valuable lessons were learned about communicating about adaptation. The results of this study demonstrate that science communication research has an important place in the practice of promoting and fostering climate change adaptation. While the focus of this study was tour operators, the lessons learned may be valuable to other organizations striving to engage unique groups in climate

  18. Extended Solar System Structures Observed by WISE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sykes, Mark V.; Masci, Frank; Cutri, Roc; Walker, Russell; Mainzer, Amy; Bauer, James; Stevenson, Rachel; Tricarico, Pasquale

    2014-11-01

    Extended structures associated with recent asteroid collisions and comets were detected by the Infrared Astronomical Satellite, which conducted the first survey of the thermal emission of the sky in 1983. Twenty-seven years later, the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE), conducted a more sensitive survey of the sky at wavelengths spanning the shorter IRAS bandpasses and detected many of these same structures. Initial identifications include asteroid dust bands associated with collisions giving rise to the Karin and Beagle clusters within the Koronis and Themis asteroid families, respectively. An additional pair of bands is associated with the collision giving rise to the Veritas asteroid family. Comet trails associated with short-period comets have also been observed. Type 2 trails, detected by IRAS and possibly associated with asteroid collisions within the past few thousand years, have yet to be identified. Because WISE is significantly more sensitive than IRAS in the mid-infrared, it has detected some trails extending much further over their orbits and will greatly expand the catalog of trails detected in addition to those observed by IRAS and Spitzer (the latter by targeted observations). WISE and the yet more sensitive NEOCAM survey telescope will provide important insights into the recent collisional history of the asteroid belt and the nature and evolution of comets.

  19. The "New Climate" New Atmospheric Events and "New Climate Risks": The case of Morocco

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karrouk, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    Since the end of last century, qualified meteorological events of "exceptional" causing floods have ceased to occur in Morocco and elsewhere, with a recurrence increasingly high, prompting to wonder about the "new" mode of climate's hydrothermal functioning inducing torrential rains, as well as its effect on the environment and societies.The latest event is the disaster of November 2014 flooding in southern Morocco, which is due especially to the non usual rains return.Weather conditions were marked by enhanced Meridian Atmospheric Circulation (MAC), characterized by persistent high temperatures during the autumn period in Morocco, mainly south of the Atlas, combined by the intrusion of a cold drop in the beginning of the event on 11.17.2014, and straightforward installation of a planetary valley across the Moroccan coast on 11.24.2014, which has evolved into storm (Xandra) in which depression has reached the surprising value of 975 hPa on 11.28.2014.Human and material damage caused by this flood are impressive: people died, roads, bridges and crops have been destroyed, overwhelmed dams. It has been a catastrophe.This event and others like it (Mohammedia 2002, Tangier 2008, Gharb 2009-2010, Casablanca 2010), must be considered as references for the simulation of future situations, and integration into development plans on future.This communication aims to identify the processes and conditions that have generated these events causing floods, the "exceptional" characteristics of recorded rainfall, the spatial and temporal distribution of events. Those floods affect the whole country, especially low areas, foothills and the mouths of rivers. There are the most vulnerable locations mainly on the autumn which is the most exposed to torrential rainfall season !! ... Etc.

  20. `Climate wise` program at the Cosmair, Inc. Clark Manufacturing Facility

    SciTech Connect

    Kraly, K.

    1997-12-31

    Viewgraphs from the conference presentation are reproduced in this paper, which outlines energy efficiency improvements and emissions reductions at a hair care products manufacturing facility. Program management focuses on employee involvement in internal audits, utility tracking, public relations, and preventative maintenance. Energy savings, cost savings, and emission reductions are presented for 1996 and projected to the year 2000. Other program aspects outlined include a summary of utility costs; solid waste; chilled water system modifications; lighting modifications; boiler upgrades; and heating, ventilating, and air conditioning improvements.

  1. Civic Engagement about Climate Change: A Case Study of Three Educators and Their Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chandler, Thomas; Marri, Anand R.

    2012-01-01

    This collective case study examined how three educators (a high school social studies teacher, a university social studies teacher educator, and minister teaching an adult population) used a multimedia based curriculum guide, "Teaching the Levees", to teach about climate change to examine public priorities in relation to the environment.…

  2. BASINs and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case Study Guide to Potential Applications (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the release of the final report, BASINs and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case Study Guide to Potential Applications. This report supports application of two recently developed water modeling tools, the Better Assessment Science Integrating point & ...

  3. Sensitivity of worst-case strom surge considering influence of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takayabu, Izuru; Hibino, Kenshi; Sasaki, Hidetaka; Shiogama, Hideo; Mori, Nobuhito; Shibutani, Yoko; Takemi, Tetsuya

    2016-04-01

    There are two standpoints when assessing risk caused by climate change. One is how to prevent disaster. For this purpose, we get probabilistic information of meteorological elements, from enough number of ensemble simulations. Another one is to consider disaster mitigation. For this purpose, we have to use very high resolution sophisticated model to represent a worst case event in detail. If we could use enough computer resources to drive many ensemble runs with very high resolution model, we can handle these all themes in one time. However resources are unfortunately limited in most cases, and we have to select the resolution or the number of simulations if we design the experiment. Applying PGWD (Pseudo Global Warming Downscaling) method is one solution to analyze a worst case event in detail. Here we introduce an example to find climate change influence on the worst case storm-surge, by applying PGWD to a super typhoon Haiyan (Takayabu et al, 2015). 1 km grid WRF model could represent both the intensity and structure of a super typhoon. By adopting PGWD method, we can only estimate the influence of climate change on the development process of the Typhoon. Instead, the changes in genesis could not be estimated. Finally, we drove SU-WAT model (which includes shallow water equation model) to get the signal of storm surge height. The result indicates that the height of the storm surge increased up to 20% owing to these 150 years climate change.

  4. Basins and Wepp Climate Assessment Tools (Cat): Case Study Guide to Potential Applications (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cover of the BASINS and WEPP <span class=Climate Assessment Tool: Case Study Final report"> This final report supports application of two recently developed...

  5. BASINS and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case Study Guide to Potential Applications (External Review Draft)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This draft report supports application of two recently developed water modeling tools, the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools. The report presents a series of short case studies designed to illustrate the capabilities of these tools for conducting scenario based assessments...

  6. Case Studies of Water Utility Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment [External Review Draft Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report presents a series of case studies describing the approaches taken by four water utilities in the United States to assess their vulnerability to climate change. The report is not intended to be a comprehensive listing of assessment approaches or utilities conducting v...

  7. Cloud-Enabled Climate Analytics-as-a-Service using Reanalysis data: A case study.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nadeau, D.; Duffy, D.; Schnase, J. L.; McInerney, M.; Tamkin, G.; Potter, G. L.; Thompson, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    The NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) maintains advanced data capabilities and facilities that allow researchers to access the enormous volume of data generated by weather and climate models. The NASA Climate Model Data Service (CDS) and the NCCS are merging their efforts to provide Climate Analytics-as-a-Service for the comparative study of the major reanalysis projects: ECMWF ERA-Interim, NASA/GMAO MERRA, NOAA/NCEP CFSR, NOAA/ESRL 20CR, JMA JRA25, and JRA55. These reanalyses have been repackaged to netCDF4 file format following the CMIP5 Climate and Forecast (CF) metadata convention prior to be sequenced into the Hadoop Distributed File System ( HDFS ). A small set of operations that represent a common starting point in many analysis workflows was then created: min, max, sum, count, variance and average. In this example, Reanalysis data exploration was performed with the use of Hadoop MapReduce and accessibility was achieved using the Climate Data Service(CDS) application programming interface (API) created at NCCS. This API provides a uniform treatment of large amount of data. In this case study, we have limited our exploration to 2 variables, temperature and precipitation, using 3 operations, min, max and avg and using 30-year of Reanalysis data for 3 regions of the world: global, polar, subtropical.

  8. A Case Study of a Kindergarten Teacher: Examining Practices and Beliefs That Support the Social-Emotional Classroom Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pech, Sandra L.

    2010-01-01

    This 5-month qualitative case study investigated the social-emotional climate of one half-day kindergarten classroom by examining the role of the teacher in establishing and sustaining a classroom climate that nurtured the social-emotional lives of students. This case study asks: How and why did the teacher establish and sustain a classroom…

  9. Climate change adaptation accounting for huge uncertainties in future projections - the case of urban drainage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willems, Patrick

    2015-04-01

    Hydrological design parameters, which are currently used in the guidelines for the design of urban drainage systems (Willems et al., 2013) have been revised, taking the Flanders region of Belgium as case study. The revision involved extrapolation of the design rainfall statistics, taking into account the current knowledge on future climate change trends till 2100. Uncertainties in these trend projections have been assessed after statistically analysing and downscaling by a quantile perturbation tool based on a broad ensemble set of climate model simulation results (44 regional + 69 global control-scenario climate model run combinations for different greenhouse gas scenarios). The impact results of the climate scenarios were investigated as changes to rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Thereafter, the climate scenarios and related changes in rainfall statistics were transferred to changes in flood frequencies of sewer systems and overflow frequencies of storage facilities. This has been done based on conceptual urban drainage models. Also the change in storage capacity required to exceed a given overflow return period, has been calculated for a range of return periods and infiltration or throughflow rates. These results were used on the basis of the revision of the hydraulic design rules of urban drainage systems. One of the major challenges while formulating these policy guidelines was the consideration of the huge uncertainties in the future climate change projections and impact assessments; see also the difficulties and pitfalls reported by the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage - Working group on urban rainfall (Willems et al., 2012). We made use of the risk concept, and found it a very useful approach to deal with the high uncertainties. It involves an impact study of the different climate projections, or - for practical reasons - a reduced set of climate scenarios tailored for the specific type of impact considered (urban floods in our

  10. Magnetic Gold Nanoshells: Step-wise Changing of Magnetism through Step-wise Biofunctionalization

    PubMed Central

    S.S.R.Kumar, Challa; Mohammad, Faruq

    2010-01-01

    We report step-wise changing of magnetic behavior of iron oxide core gold shell nanoparticles from super paramagnetic to permanent magnetism at room temperature, on step-wise bio-functionalization with leutenizing hormone and releasing hormone (LHRH) through cysteamine linker. The observed permanent magnetism at room temperature in LHRH-capped gold nanoshells provides opportunities to extend fundamental investigations of permanent magnetism to other novel nanostructures and biofunctionalized nano gold architectures, simultaneously opening the way to newer applications, especially to those in biomedicine. PMID:23646236

  11. Understanding Young Exoplanet Analogs with WISE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rice, Emily

    We propose to tackle outstanding questions about the fundamental properties of young brown dwarfs, which are atmospheric analogs to massive gas giant exoplanets, using public archive data from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) combined with our extensive dataset of optical and near-infrared observations, including spectra, proper motions, and parallaxes. Using WISE data we will construct color-color diagrams, color- magnitude diagrams, and spectral energy distributions for our sample of candidate young brown dwarfs. We will fully characterize the spectral properties of the candidates and evaluate their membership in nearby young moving groups in order to obtain independent age estimates. The practical outcomes of this project will allow the research community to use observed colors and spectra to reliably constrain the properties - including effective temperature, gravity, and dust/cloud properties - of both brown dwarfs and gas giant exoplanets. We will also search for new young brown dwarfs in the WISE archive using colors and proper motions. The expanded sample of young brown dwarfs will be used to create a self-contained feedback loop to identify and address the shortcomings of cool atmosphere models and low-mass evolutionary tracks, both of which are already being used to infer the properties of massive exoplanets. Disentangling the effects of physical parameters on the observed properties of young brown dwarfs is directly relevant to studies of exoplanets. Direct observations of exoplanets are currently very limited, and young brown dwarfs are the laboratories in which we can solve existing problems before the onslaught of new observations from instruments capable of directly imaging exoplanets, including the Gemini Planet Imager, Project 1640 at the Palomar Observatory, SPHERE on the VLT, and the James Webb Space Telescope. This project addresses the goal of the NASA Science Mission Directorate to discover how the universe works; in particular

  12. Wise Detections of Known QSOS at Redshifts Greater Than Six

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blain, Andrew W.; Assef, Roberto; Stern, Daniel; Tsai, Chao-Wei; Eisenhardt, Peter; Bridge, Carrie; Benford, Dominic; Jarrett, Tom; Cutri, Roc; Petty, Sara; Wu, Jingwen; Wright, Edward L.

    2013-01-01

    We present WISE All-Sky mid-infrared (IR) survey detections of 55 % (17/31) of the known QSOs at z greater than 6 from a range of surveys: the SDSS, the CFHT-LS, FIRST, Spitzer and UK1DSS. The WISE catalog thus provides a substantial increase in tiie quantity of IR data available for these sources: 17 are detected in the WISE Wl (3.4 micrometer) band, 16 in W2 (4.6 micrometers), 3 in W3 (12 micrometers) and 0 in W4 (22micrometers). This is particularly important with Spitzer in its warm-mission phase and no faint follow-up capability at wavelengths longwards of 5 micrometers until the launch of JWST. WISE thus provides a useful tool for understanding QSOs found in forthcoming large-area optical/IR sky surveys, using PanSTARRS, SkyMapper, VISTA, DES and LSST. The rest-UV properties of the WISE-detected and the WISE-non-detected samples differ: the detections have brighter i/z-band magnitudes and redder rest-UV colors. This suggests thai a more aggressive hunt for very-high-redshift QSOs, by combining WISE Wl and W2 data with red observed optical colors could be effective at least, for a subset of dusty candidate QSOs. Stacking the WISE images of the WISE-non-detected QSOs indicates that they are on average significantly fainter than the WISE-detccted examples, and are thus not narrowly missing detection in the WISE catalog. The WISE-catalog detection of three of our sample in the W3 band indicates that their mid-ID flux can be detected individually, although there is no stacked W3 detection of sources detected in Wl but not. W3. Stacking analyses of WISE data for large AGN samples will be a useful tool, and high-redshifl. QSOs of all types will be easy targets for JWST.

  13. Hadoop for High-Performance Climate Analytics: Use Cases and Lessons Learned

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tamkin, Glenn

    2013-01-01

    Scientific data services are a critical aspect of the NASA Center for Climate Simulations mission (NCCS). Hadoop, via MapReduce, provides an approach to high-performance analytics that is proving to be useful to data intensive problems in climate research. It offers an analysis paradigm that uses clusters of computers and combines distributed storage of large data sets with parallel computation. The NCCS is particularly interested in the potential of Hadoop to speed up basic operations common to a wide range of analyses. In order to evaluate this potential, we prototyped a series of canonical MapReduce operations over a test suite of observational and climate simulation datasets. The initial focus was on averaging operations over arbitrary spatial and temporal extents within Modern Era Retrospective- Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data. After preliminary results suggested that this approach improves efficiencies within data intensive analytic workflows, we invested in building a cyber infrastructure resource for developing a new generation of climate data analysis capabilities using Hadoop. This resource is focused on reducing the time spent in the preparation of reanalysis data used in data-model inter-comparison, a long sought goal of the climate community. This paper summarizes the related use cases and lessons learned.

  14. REDD+ and climate smart agriculture in landscapes: A case study in Vietnam using companion modelling.

    PubMed

    Salvini, G; Ligtenberg, A; van Paassen, A; Bregt, A K; Avitabile, V; Herold, M

    2016-05-01

    Finding land use strategies that merge land-based climate change mitigation measures and adaptation strategies is still an open issue in climate discourse. This article explores synergies and trade-offs between REDD+, a scheme that focuses mainly on mitigation through forest conservation, with "Climate Smart Agriculture", an approach that emphasizes adaptive agriculture. We introduce a framework for ex-ante assessment of the impact of land management policies and interventions and for quantifying their impacts on land-based mitigation and adaptation goals. The framework includes a companion modelling (ComMod) process informed by interviews with policymakers, local experts and local farmers. The ComMod process consists of a Role-Playing Game with local farmers and an Agent Based Model. The game provided a participatory means to develop policy and climate change scenarios. These scenarios were then used as inputs to the Agent Based Model, a spatially explicit model to simulate landscape dynamics and the associated carbon emissions over decades. We applied the framework using as case study a community in central Vietnam, characterized by deforestation for subsistence agriculture and cultivation of acacias as a cash crop. The main findings show that the framework is useful in guiding consideration of local stakeholders' goals, needs and constraints. Additionally the framework provided beneficial information to policymakers, pointing to ways that policies might be re-designed to make them better tailored to local circumstances and therefore more effective in addressing synergistically climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives.

  15. Climate change impacts on irrigated rice and wheat production in Gomti River basin of India: a case study.

    PubMed

    Abeysingha, N S; Singh, Man; Islam, Adlul; Sehgal, V K

    2016-01-01

    Potential future impacts of climate change on irrigated rice and wheat production and their evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements in the Gomti River basin were assessed by integrating a widely used hydrological model "Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)" and climate change scenario generated from MIROC (HiRes) global climate model. SWAT model was calibrated and validated using monthly streamflow data of four spatially distributed gauging stations and district wise wheat and rice yields data for the districts located within the basin. Simulation results showed an increase in mean annual rice yield in the range of 5.5-6.7, 16.6-20.2 and 26-33.4 % during 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Similarly, mean annual wheat yield is also likely to increase by 13.9-15.4, 23.6-25.6 and 25.2-27.9 % for the same future time periods. Evapotranspiration for both wheat and rice is projected to increase in the range of 3-9.6 and 7.8-16.3 %, respectively. With increase in rainfall during rice growing season, irrigation water allocation for rice is likely to decrease (<5 %) in future periods, but irrigation water allocation for wheat is likely to increase by 17.0-45.3 % in future periods.

  16. Who Should be Empowered to Know about Earth's Changing Climate? The Case of Earth's Changing Cryosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kargel, J. S.

    2006-12-01

    to deal with, but when humans—some humans more than others—are the prime causes of new hazards, and some humans more than others are the victims of those anthropogenic changes to the Earth, it becomes politically charged. One approach is to bury one's head in the sand and ignore the issues; this has been substantially NASA's approach with regard to natural hazards that bear on matters of political import—such as climate change. The risks of doing the honorable thing and to deal squarely with information at hand are huge, both for agencies and individual scientists. No matter what funding agencies say, scientists must answer a higher calling to do the right thing. Rarely does the right thing ever involve the news media on such frightful matters. I will review two special cases of how NOT to do things in my area of glaciation and glacial hazards—in one case, USGS attempted to delete a reference to the intergovernmental panel on climate change that was included in a draft of a press release; in another case, unsubstantiated warnings by JPL of imminent danger from a generally dangerous glacial lake in Peru did not go through peer review or the national scientific or civil authorities in Peru, and it resulted in needless public panic. Climate change faces every human alive and will have increasing impacts on the next several generations. Major funding agencies must provide the resources for robust, unclassified, objective research in climate change and its impacts, including hazards, and the observing tools to enable it, especially in areas where humans are the underlying cause and where mitigative action is possible. Scientists must exercise special responsibility and sensitivity in dealing with such politically charged issues.

  17. Model-wise and point-wise random sample consensus for robust regression and outlier detection.

    PubMed

    El-Melegy, Moumen T

    2014-11-01

    Popular regression techniques often suffer at the presence of data outliers. Most previous efforts to solve this problem have focused on using an estimation algorithm that minimizes a robust M-estimator based error criterion instead of the usual non-robust mean squared error. However the robustness gained from M-estimators is still low. This paper addresses robust regression and outlier detection in a random sample consensus (RANSAC) framework. It studies the classical RANSAC framework and highlights its model-wise nature for processing the data. Furthermore, it introduces for the first time a point-wise strategy of RANSAC. New estimation algorithms are developed following both the model-wise and point-wise RANSAC concepts. The proposed algorithms' theoretical robustness and breakdown points are investigated in a novel probabilistic setting. While the proposed concepts and algorithms are generic and general enough to adopt many regression machineries, the paper focuses on multilayered feed-forward neural networks in solving regression problems. The algorithms are evaluated on synthetic and real data, contaminated with high degrees of outliers, and compared to existing neural network training algorithms. Furthermore, to improve the time performance, parallel implementations of the two algorithms are developed and assessed to utilize the multiple CPU cores available on nowadays computers.

  18. Secure Genomic Computation through Site-Wise Encryption.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Yongan; Wang, XiaoFeng; Tang, Haixu

    2015-01-01

    Commercial clouds provide on-demand IT services for big-data analysis, which have become an attractive option for users who have no access to comparable infrastructure. However, utilizing these services for human genome analysis is highly risky, as human genomic data contains identifiable information of human individuals and their disease susceptibility. Therefore, currently, no computation on personal human genomic data is conducted on public clouds. To address this issue, here we present a site-wise encryption approach to encrypt whole human genome sequences, which can be subject to secure searching of genomic signatures on public clouds. We implemented this method within the Hadoop framework, and tested it on the case of searching disease markers retrieved from the ClinVar database against patients' genomic sequences. The secure search runs only one order of magnitude slower than the simple search without encryption, indicating our method is ready to be used for secure genomic computation on public clouds.

  19. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  20. Forecasting malaria cases using climatic factors in delhi, India: a time series analysis.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Varun; Mangal, Abha; Panesar, Sanjeet; Yadav, Geeta; Talwar, Richa; Raut, Deepak; Singh, Saudan

    2014-01-01

    Background. Malaria still remains a public health problem in developing countries and changing environmental and climatic factors pose the biggest challenge in fighting against the scourge of malaria. Therefore, the study was designed to forecast malaria cases using climatic factors as predictors in Delhi, India. Methods. The total number of monthly cases of malaria slide positives occurring from January 2006 to December 2013 was taken from the register maintained at the malaria clinic at Rural Health Training Centre (RHTC), Najafgarh, Delhi. Climatic data of monthly mean rainfall, relative humidity, and mean maximum temperature were taken from Regional Meteorological Centre, Delhi. Expert modeler of SPSS ver. 21 was used for analyzing the time series data. Results. Autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,0)(12), was the best fit model and it could explain 72.5% variability in the time series data. Rainfall (P value = 0.004) and relative humidity (P value = 0.001) were found to be significant predictors for malaria transmission in the study area. Seasonal adjusted factor (SAF) for malaria cases shows peak during the months of August and September. Conclusion. ARIMA models of time series analysis is a simple and reliable tool for producing reliable forecasts for malaria in Delhi, India.

  1. WISE Observations of Comets, Centaurs, & Scattered Disk Objects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauer, J.; Walker, R.; Mainzer, A.; Masiero, J.; Grav, T.; Cutri, R.; Dailey, J.; McMillan, R.; Lisse, C. M.; Fernandez, Y. R.; Meech, K. J.; Pittichova, J.; Tholen, D.; DeBaun, E.; Hand, E.; Blauvelt, E.; Wright, E. L.

    2011-01-01

    The Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) was luanched on December 14, 2009. WISE imaged more than 99% of the sky in the mid-infrared for a 9-month mission lifetome. In addition to its primary goals of detecting the most luminous infrared galaxies and the nearest brown dwarfs, WISE, detected over 155500 of solar system bodies, 33700 of which were previously unknown. Most of the new objects were main Belt asteriods, and particular emphasis was on the discovery of Near Earth Asteoids. Hundreds of Jupiter Trojans have been imaged by WISE as well. However a substantial number of Centaurs, Scattered Disc Objects (SDOs), & cometary objects, were observed and discovered.

  2. Explanatory Supplement to the AllWISE Data Release Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cutri, R. M.; Wright, E. L.; Conrow, T.; Fowler, J. W.; Eisenhardt, P. R. M.; Grillmair, C.; Kirkpatrick, J. D.; Masci, F.; McCallon, H. L.; Wheelock, S. L.; Fajardo-Acosta, S.; Yan, L.; Benford, D.; Harbut, M.; Jarrett, T.; Lake, S.; Leisawitz, D.; Ressler, M. E.; Stanford, S. A.; Tsai, C. W.; Liu, F.; Helou, G.; Mainzer, A.; Gettings, D.; Gonzalez, A.; Hoffman, D.; Marsh, K. A.; Padgett, D.; Skrutskie, M. F.; Beck, R. P.; Papin, M.; Wittman, M.

    2013-11-01

    The AllWISE program builds upon the successful Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE; Wright et al. 2010) mission by combining data from all WISE and NEOWISE (Mainzer et al. 2011) survey phases to form the most comprehensive view of the mid-infrared sky currently available. By combining the data from two complete sky coverage epochs in an advanced data processing system, AllWISE has generated new products that have enhanced photometric sensitivity and accuracy, and improved astrometric precision compared with the earlier WISE All-Sky Data Release. Exploiting the 6 month baseline between the WISE sky coverage epochs enables AllWISE to measure source motions for the first time, and to compute improved flux variability statistics. AllWISE data release products include: a Source Catalog that contains 4-band fluxes, positions, apparent motion measurements, and flux variability statistics for over 747 million objects detected at SNR>5 in the combined exposures; a Multiepoch Photometry Database containing over 42 billion time-tagged, single-exposure fluxes for each object detected on the combined exposures; and an Image Atlas of 18,240 4-band calibrated FITS images, depth-of-coverage and noise maps that cover the sky produced by coadding nearly 7.9 million single-exposure images from the cryogenic and post-cryogenic survey phases. The Explanatory Supplement to the AllWISE Data Release Products is a general guide for users of the AllWISE data. The Supplement contains detailed descriptions of the format and characteristics of the AllWISE data products, as well as a summary of cautionary notes that describe known limitations. The Supplement is an on-line document that is updated frequently to provide the most current information for users of the AllWISE data products. The Explanatory Supplement is maintained at: http://wise2.ipac.caltech.edu/docs/release/allwise/expsup/index.html AllWISE makes use of data from WISE, which is a joint project of the University of

  3. Climate variability as a threat for countries progressing towards malaria elimination: The case study of Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mousam, Aneela; Maggioni, Viviana; Quispe, Antonio; Aquila, Valentina

    2015-04-01

    Malaria cases reported by the Peruvian Ministry of Health demonstrate a 61% reduction of malaria in the last decade (2001- 2010). However, during the years 2011-14 malaria increased by ~2.7 folds in Peru and ~5 folds in Loreto, an Amazonian department that continues contributing over 90% of the malaria cases in Peru. Past studies have indicated that there is a strong association between climate variability and malaria rates. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that climate variables have played a key role in the recent increase of malaria cases in Peru. Climate data, such as precipitation, temperature, humidity and surface pressure simulated by the NASA MERRA model during a 10-year ling time series (2004-2013) are used to verify this hypothesis. Preliminary data analyses show large deviations from the 10-year mean (i.e., climatological anomalies) in humidity, surface pressure, and temperature during 2010 up to four times larger than previous and subsequent years. An increase of 8% in precipitation yearly averages is observed in 2010, which also corresponds with the following reverse of the downward trend of malaria incidence, particularly in Loreto. The sudden amplification of climatological anomalies in 2010 could have set the environmental conditions that caused the re-emergence of malaria in 2011. Investigation is underway to link weekly malaria data from different districts in Peru to the climate conditions at those locations during the past ten years. This will be crucial in understanding why some countries, despite all necessary efforts, are unable to completely eliminate malaria.

  4. A climate-based spatiotemporal prediction for dengue fever epidemics: a case study in southern Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, H.-L.; Yang, S.-J.; Lin, Y.-C.

    2012-04-01

    Dengue Fever (DF) has been identified by the World Health organization (WHO) as one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases in tropical and sub-tropical areas. DF has been one of the most important epidemics in Taiwan which occur annually especially in southern Taiwan during summer and autumn. Most DF studies have focused mainly on temporal DF patterns and its close association with climatic covariates, whereas few studies have investigated the spatial DF patterns (spatial dependence and clustering) and composite space-time effects of the DF epidemics. The present study proposes a spatio-temporal DF prediction approach based on stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. Core and site-specific knowledge bases are considered, including climate and health datasets under conditions of uncertainty, space-time dependence functions, and a Poisson regression model of climatic variables contributing to DF occurrences in southern Taiwan during 2007, when the highest number of DF cases was recorded in the history of Taiwan epidemics (over 2000). The obtained results show that the DF outbreaks in the study area are highly influenced by climatic conditions. Furthermore, the analysis can provide the required "one-week-ahead" outbreak warnings based on spatio-temporal predictions of DF distributions. Therefore, the proposed analysis can provide the Taiwan Disease Control Agency with a valuable tool to timely identify, control, and even efficiently prevent DF spreading across space-time.

  5. Implications of climate change for the stomatal flux of ozone: a case study for winter wheat.

    PubMed

    Harmens, Harry; Mills, Gina; Emberson, Lisa D; Ashmore, Mike R

    2007-04-01

    Climate change factors such as elevated CO2 concentrations, warming and changes in precipitation affect the stomatal flux of ozone (O3) into leaves directly or indirectly by altering the stomatal conductance, atmospheric O3 concentrations, frequency and extent of pollution episodes and length of the growing season. Results of a case study for winter wheat indicate that in a future climate the exceedance of the flux-based critical level of O3 might be reduced across Europe, even when taking into account an increase in tropospheric background O3 concentration. In contrast, the exceedance of the concentration-based critical level of O3 will increase with the projected increase in tropospheric background O3 concentration. The influence of climate change should be considered when predicting the future effects of O3 on vegetation. There is a clear need for multi-factorial, open-air experiments to provide more realistic information for O3 flux-effect modelling in a future climate.

  6. Making spatial prioritizations robust to climate change uncertainties: a case study with North American birds.

    PubMed

    Schuetz, Justin G; Langham, Gary M; Soykan, Candan U; Wilsey, Chad B; Auer, Tom; Sanchez, Connie C

    2015-10-01

    Spatial prioritizations are essential tools for conserving biodiversity in the face of accelerating climate change. Uncertainty about species' responses to changing climates can complicate prioritization efforts, however, and delay conservation investment. In an effort to facilitate decision-making, we identified three hypotheses about species' potential responses to climate change based on distinct biological assumptions related to niche flexibility and colonization ability. Using 314 species of North American birds as a test case, we tuned separate spatial prioritizations to each hypothesis and assessed the degree to which assumptions about biological responses affected the perceived conservation value of the landscape and prospects for individual taxa. We also developed a bet-hedging prioritization to minimize the chance that incorrect assumptions would lead to valuable landscapes and species being overlooked in multispecies prioritizations. Collectively, these analyses help to quantify the sensitivity of spatial prioritizations to different assumptions about species' responses to climate change and provide a framework for enabling efficient conservation investment despite substantial biological uncertainty.

  7. How climate change threats water resource: the case of the Thau coastal lagoon (Mediterranean Sea, France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Sellami, Haykel; Cirelli, Claudia

    2014-05-01

    The latest reports of the intergovernmental panel on climate change explained that the Mediterranean regions are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. These latest are expected to have strong impacts on the management of water resources and on regional economies. The aim of this paper is to discuss impacts of climate changes on the Thau case study in relation to the evolution of water balance, water uses and adaptation to climate change. The Thau coastal lagoon is located in the Mediterranean coast in south of France in the Languedoc-Roussillon Region. Economic activities are diverse from shellfish farming, fertilizers industries to agriculture and tourism. However, tourism and shellfish farming are of major importance for local economy. If tourism is mainly turned to the Sea coast, shellfishes grow within the lagoon and rely on water quality. Previous studies have demonstrated the link between the coastal lagoon water quality and inputs of freshwater from the catchment. Thus, changes in rainfalls, runoff and water balance would not only affect water uses but also water quality. Climate changes projections are presented following the implementation of 4 downscaled climatic models. Impacts on water balance are modelled with SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) for 2041-2070 compared to the 1971-2000 reference period. The decrease of precipitations and water balance will impact discharges and thus decrease the freshwater inputs to the coastal lagoon. A study of water uses conducted in interactions with stakeholders within the Thau area has permitted to assess both current and evolution of water uses. It has revealed local water resources are depleting while water demand is increasing and is planned to continue to increase in the really near future. To prevent water scarcity events, mainly due to the climate change context, the Regional authorities have connected the catchment to the Rhône river to import water. The conclusion of this study is while

  8. Moving Target Photometry Using WISE and NEOWISE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, Edward L.

    2015-01-01

    WISE band 1 observations have a significant noise contribution from confusion. The image subtraction done on W0855-0714 by Wright et al. (2014) shows that this noise source can be eliminated for sources that move by much more than the beamsize. This paper describes an analysis that includes a pattern of celestially fixed flux plus a source moving with a known trajectory. This technique allows the confusion noise to be modeled with nuisance parameters and removed even for sources that have not moved by many beamwidths. However, the detector noise is magnified if the motion is too small. Examples of the method applied to fast moving Y dwarfs and slow moving planets will be shown.

  9. THE FIRST HUNDRED BROWN DWARFS DISCOVERED BY THE WIDE-FIELD INFRARED SURVEY EXPLORER (WISE)

    SciTech Connect

    Davy Kirkpatrick, J.; Gelino, Christopher R.; Griffith, Roger L.; Marsh, Kenneth A.; Tsai, Chao-Wei; Beichman, Charles A.; Cushing, Michael C.; Mainzer, A.; Eisenhardt, Peter R.; Bauer, James M.; Skrutskie, Michael F.; Wright, Edward L.; McLean, Ian S.; Lake, Sean E.; Petty, Sara M.; Thompson, Maggie A.; Benford, Dominic J.; Bridge, Carrie R.; Stanford, S. A.; Bailey, Vanessa; and others

    2011-12-01

    We present ground-based spectroscopic verification of 6 Y dwarfs (see also Cushing et al.), 89 T dwarfs, 8 L dwarfs, and 1 M dwarf identified by the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). Eighty of these are cold brown dwarfs with spectral types {>=}T6, six of which have been announced earlier by Mainzer et al. and Burgasser et al. We present color-color and color-type diagrams showing the locus of M, L, T, and Y dwarfs in WISE color space. Near-infrared and, in a few cases, optical spectra are presented for these discoveries. Near-infrared classifications as late as early Y are presented and objects with peculiar spectra are discussed. Using these new discoveries, we are also able to extend the optical T dwarf classification scheme from T8 to T9. After deriving an absolute WISE 4.6 {mu}m (W2) magnitude versus spectral type relation, we estimate spectrophotometric distances to our discoveries. We also use available astrometric measurements to provide preliminary trigonometric parallaxes to four of our discoveries, which have types of L9 pec (red), T8, T9, and Y0; all of these lie within 10 pc of the Sun. The Y0 dwarf, WISE 1541-2250, is the closest at 2.8{sup +1.3}{sub -0.6} pc; if this 2.8 pc value persists after continued monitoring, WISE 1541-2250 will become the seventh closest stellar system to the Sun. Another 10 objects, with types between T6 and >Y0, have spectrophotometric distance estimates also placing them within 10 pc. The closest of these, the T6 dwarf WISE 1506+7027, is believed to fall at a distance of {approx}4.9 pc. WISE multi-epoch positions supplemented with positional info primarily from the Spitzer/Infrared Array Camera allow us to calculate proper motions and tangential velocities for roughly one-half of the new discoveries. This work represents the first step by WISE to complete a full-sky, volume-limited census of late-T and Y dwarfs. Using early results from this census, we present preliminary, lower limits to the space density of

  10. WISeREP—An Interactive Supernova Data Repository

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yaron, Ofer; Gal-Yam, Avishay

    2012-07-01

    We have entered an era of massive data sets in astronomy. In particular, the number of supernova (SN) discoveries and classifications has substantially increased over the years from few tens to thousands per year. It is no longer the case that observations of a few prototypical events encapsulate most spectroscopic information about SNe, motivating the development of modern tools to collect, archive, organize, and distribute spectra in general and SN spectra in particular. For this reason, we have developed the Weizmann Interactive Supernova Data Repository (WISeREP)—an SQL-based database (DB) with an interactive Web-based graphical interface. The system serves as an archive of high-quality SN spectra, including both historical (legacy) data and data that are accumulated by ongoing modern programs. The archive provides information about objects, their spectra, and related metadata. Utilizing interactive plots, we provide a graphical interface to visualize data, perform line identification of the major relevant species, determine object redshifts, classify SNe, and measure expansion velocities. Guest users may view and download spectra or other data that have been placed in the public domain. Registered users may also view and download data that are proprietary to specific programs with which they are associated. The DB currently holds more than 8000 spectra, of which more than 5000 are public; the latter include published spectra from the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF), all of the SUSPECT (Supernova Spectrum) archive, the Caltech-Core-Collapse Program (CCCP), the CfA SN spectra archive, and published spectra from the University of California, Berkeley, SNDB repository. It offers an efficient and convenient way to archive data and share it with colleagues, and we expect that data stored in this way will be easy to access, increasing its visibility, usefulness, and scientific impact. We encourage the SN community worldwide to make use of the data and tools

  11. Principles for the wise use of computers by children.

    PubMed

    Straker, L; Pollock, C; Maslen, B

    2009-11-01

    Computer use by children at home and school is now common in many countries. Child computer exposure varies with the type of computer technology available and the child's age, gender and social group. This paper reviews the current exposure data and the evidence for positive and negative effects of computer use by children. Potential positive effects of computer use by children include enhanced cognitive development and school achievement, reduced barriers to social interaction, enhanced fine motor skills and visual processing and effective rehabilitation. Potential negative effects include threats to child safety, inappropriate content, exposure to violence, bullying, Internet 'addiction', displacement of moderate/vigorous physical activity, exposure to junk food advertising, sleep displacement, vision problems and musculoskeletal problems. The case for child specific evidence-based guidelines for wise use of computers is presented based on children using computers differently to adults, being physically, cognitively and socially different to adults, being in a state of change and development and the potential to impact on later adult risk. Progress towards child-specific guidelines is reported. Finally, a set of guideline principles is presented as the basis for more detailed guidelines on the physical, cognitive and social impact of computer use by children. The principles cover computer literacy, technology safety, child safety and privacy and appropriate social, cognitive and physical development. The majority of children in affluent communities now have substantial exposure to computers. This is likely to have significant effects on child physical, cognitive and social development. Ergonomics can provide and promote guidelines for wise use of computers by children and by doing so promote the positive effects and reduce the negative effects of computer-child, and subsequent computer-adult, interaction.

  12. Generating temporal model using climate variables for the prediction of dengue cases in Subang Jaya, Malaysia

    PubMed Central

    Dom, Nazri Che; Hassan, A Abu; Latif, Z Abd; Ismail, Rodziah

    2013-01-01

    Objective To develop a forecasting model for the incidence of dengue cases in Subang Jaya using time series analysis. Methods The model was performed using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) based on data collected from 2005 to 2010. The fitted model was then used to predict dengue incidence for the year 2010 by extrapolating dengue patterns using three different approaches (i.e. 52, 13 and 4 weeks ahead). Finally cross correlation between dengue incidence and climate variable was computed over a range of lags in order to identify significant variables to be included as external regressor. Results The result of this study revealed that the ARIMA (2,0,0) (0,0,1)52 model developed, closely described the trends of dengue incidence and confirmed the existence of dengue fever cases in Subang Jaya for the year 2005 to 2010. The prediction per period of 4 weeks ahead for ARIMA (2,0,0)(0,0,1)52 was found to be best fit and consistent with the observed dengue incidence based on the training data from 2005 to 2010 (Root Mean Square Error=0.61). The predictive power of ARIMA (2,0,0) (0,0,1)52 is enhanced by the inclusion of climate variables as external regressor to forecast the dengue cases for the year 2010. Conclusions The ARIMA model with weekly variation is a useful tool for disease control and prevention program as it is able to effectively predict the number of dengue cases in Malaysia.

  13. Final Report for High Latitude Climate Modeling: ARM Takes Us Beyond Case Studies

    SciTech Connect

    Russell, Lynn M

    2013-06-18

    The main thrust of this project was to devise a method by which the majority of North Slope of Alaska (NSA) meteorological and radiometric data, collected on a daily basis, could be used to evaluate and improve global climate model (GCM) simulations and their parameterizations, particularly for cloud microphysics. Although the standard ARM Program sensors for a less complete suite of instruments for cloud and aerosol studies than the instruments on an intensive field program such as the 2008 Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), the advantage they offer lies in the long time base and large volume of data that covers a wide range of meteorological and climatological conditions. The challenge has been devising a method to interpret the NSA data in a practical way, so that a wide variety of meteorological conditions in all seasons can be examined with climate models. If successful, climate modelers would have a robust alternative to the usual “case study” approach (i.e., from intensive field programs only) for testing and evaluating their parameterizations’ performance. Understanding climate change on regional scales requires a broad scientific consideration of anthropogenic influences that goes beyond greenhouse gas emissions to also include aerosol-induced changes in cloud properties. For instance, it is now clear that on small scales, human-induced aerosol plumes can exert microclimatic radiative and hydrologic forcing that rivals that of greenhouse gas–forced warming. This project has made significant scientific progress by investigating what causes successive versions of climate models continue to exhibit errors in cloud amount, cloud microphysical and radiative properties, precipitation, and radiation balance, as compared with observations and, in particular, in Arctic regions. To find out what is going wrong, we have tested the models' cloud representation over the full range of meteorological conditions found in the Arctic using the ARM

  14. A protocol for the development of Mediterranean climate services based on the experiences of the CLIM-RUN case studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodess, Clare; Ruti, Paolo; Rousset, Nathalie

    2014-05-01

    During the closing stages of the CLIM-RUN EU FP7 project on Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean region Responding to User Needs, the real-world experiences encountered by the case-study teams are being assessed and synthesised to identify examples of good practice and, in particular, to produce the CLIM-RUN protocol for the development of Mediterranean climate services. The specific case studies have focused on renewable energy (Morocco, Spain, Croatia, Cyprus), tourism (Savoie, Tunisia, Croatia, Cyprus) and wild fires (Greece) as well as one cross-cutting case study (Veneto region). They have been implemented following a common programme of local workshops, questionnaires and interviews, with Climate Expert Team and Stakeholder Expert Team members collaborating to identify and translate user needs and subsequently develop climate products and information. Feedback from stakeholders has been essential in assessing and refining these products. The protocol covers the following issues: the overall process and methodological key stages; identification and selection of stakeholders; communication with stakeholders; identification of user needs; translation of needs; producing products; assessing and refining products; methodologies for evaluating the economic value of climate services; and beyond CLIM-RUN - the lessons learnt. Particular emphasis is given to stakeholder analysis in the context of the participatory, bottom-up approach promoted by CLIM-RUN and to the iterative approach taken in the development of climate products. Recommendations are also made for an envisioned three-tier business model for the development of climate services involving climate, intermediary and stakeholder tiers.

  15. R-WISE: A Computerized Environment for Tutoring Critical Literacy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carlson, P.; Crevoisier, M.

    This paper describes a computerized environment for teaching the conceptual patterns of critical literacy. While the full implementation of the software covers both reading and writing, this paper covers only the writing aspects of R-WISE (Reading and Writing in a Supportive Environment). R-WISE consists of a suite of computerized…

  16. Progress in Documentation. WISE: A World Information Synthesis and Encyclopaedia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kochen, Manfred

    1972-01-01

    World Information Synthesis and Encyclopaedia (WISE), is a modernized version of H. G. Wells' World Brain'' concept. The desirability and feasibility of WISE are argued. World mental health through world mental wealth is far too important an idea to be left dormant, undiscussed and unexplored. (48 references) (Author/NH)

  17. Evaluation of body-wise and organ-wise registrations for abdominal organs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Zhoubing; Panjwani, Sahil A.; Lee, Christopher P.; Burke, Ryan P.; Baucom, Rebeccah B.; Poulose, Benjamin K.; Abramson, Richard G.; Landman, Bennett A.

    2016-03-01

    Identifying cross-sectional and longitudinal correspondence in the abdomen on computed tomography (CT) scans is necessary for quantitatively tracking change and understanding population characteristics, yet abdominal image registration is a challenging problem. The key difficulty in solving this problem is huge variations in organ dimensions and shapes across subjects. The current standard registration method uses the global or body-wise registration technique, which is based on the global topology for alignment. This method (although producing decent results) has substantial influence of outliers, thus leaving room for significant improvement. Here, we study a new image registration approach using local (organ-wise registration) by first creating organ-specific bounding boxes and then using these regions of interest (ROIs) for aligning references to target. Based on Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC), Mean Surface Distance (MSD) and Hausdorff Distance (HD), the organ-wise approach is demonstrated to have significantly better results by minimizing the distorting effects of organ variations. This paper compares exclusively the two registration methods by providing novel quantitative and qualitative comparison data and is a subset of the more comprehensive problem of improving the multi-atlas segmentation by using organ normalization.

  18. Evaluation of Body-Wise and Organ-Wise Registrations For Abdominal Organs

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Zhoubing; Panjwani, Sahil A.; Lee, Christopher P.; Burke, Ryan P.; Baucom, Rebeccah B.; Poulose, Benjamin K.; Abramson, Richard G.; Landman, Bennett A.

    2016-01-01

    Identifying cross-sectional and longitudinal correspondence in the abdomen on computed tomography (CT) scans is necessary for quantitatively tracking change and understanding population characteristics, yet abdominal image registration is a challenging problem. The key difficulty in solving this problem is huge variations in organ dimensions and shapes across subjects. The current standard registration method uses the global or body-wise registration technique, which is based on the global topology for alignment. This method (although producing decent results) has substantial influence of outliers, thus leaving room for significant improvement. Here, we study a new image registration approach using local (organ-wise registration) by first creating organ-specific bounding boxes and then using these regions of interest (ROIs) for aligning references to target. Based on Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC), Mean Surface Distance (MSD) and Hausdorff Distance (HD), the organ-wise approach is demonstrated to have significantly better results by minimizing the distorting effects of organ variations. This paper compares exclusively the two registration methods by providing novel quantitative and qualitative comparison data and is a subset of the more comprehensive problem of improving the multi-atlas segmentation by using organ normalization. PMID:27127329

  19. Cool Astronomy: Education and Public Outreach for the WISE mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendez, Bryan J.

    2011-01-01

    The Education and Public Outreach (E/PO) program of the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) aims to educate and engage students, teachers, and the general public in the endeavor of science. We bring a collection of accomplished professionals in formal and informal astronomy education from around the nation to create learning materials and experiences that appeal to broad audiences. Our E/PO program trains teachers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) topics related to WISE; creates standards-based classroom resources and lessons using WISE data and WISE-related STEM topics; develops interactive programming for museums and science centers; and inspires the public with WISE science and images.

  20. Constructing Perceptions of Climate Change: a case study of regional political decision makers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bray, D.

    2012-12-01

    This case study of climate change communications assesses the salient means of communication and the message adopted by regional political decision makers on the German Baltic coast. Realizing that cultural factors and local values (and not simply knowledge) are significant influences in explaining attitudes towards climate change, this analysis draws from the records of regional weather, from scientists with a specific focus on the region, from the political decision makers for that region, and the media message reaching the decision makers, ensuring all elements of the analysis are drawn from the same socioeconomic, geophysical, political and cultural context. This is important as the social dynamics surrounding the trust in science is of critical importance and, as such, all elements of the case study are specifically contained within a common context. If the utility of climate change knowledge is to prompt well conceived adaptation/mitigation strategies then the political decision process, or at least the perceptions shaping it, can best be understood by locating it within the world view of the decision makers involved in the production process. Using the results of two survey questionnaires, one of regional climate scientists and one of regional political decision makers, ten years of local weather records, and a summary of the message from mass media circulation, the discord in perceptions of regional climate change are quantitatively explored. The conclusions drawn from the analysis include, compared to the scientific assessment: The decision makers' perceptions of recent past differ from actual observations. The decision makers' perceptions of the future differ from scientific assessments. The decision makers tend to over estimate the magnitude of regional climate change and its impacts. The decision makers tend to over estimate the sense of immediacy for adaptation measures. The conclusions drawn suggest that in the regional political realm, it is often a

  1. The Arctic as a test case for an assessment of climate impacts on national security.

    SciTech Connect

    Taylor, Mark A.; Zak, Bernard Daniel; Backus, George A.; Ivey, Mark D.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2008-11-01

    The Arctic region is rapidly changing in a way that will affect the rest of the world. Parts of Alaska, western Canada, and Siberia are currently warming at twice the global rate. This warming trend is accelerating permafrost deterioration, coastal erosion, snow and ice loss, and other changes that are a direct consequence of climate change. Climatologists have long understood that changes in the Arctic would be faster and more intense than elsewhere on the planet, but the degree and speed of the changes were underestimated compared to recent observations. Policy makers have not yet had time to examine the latest evidence or appreciate the nature of the consequences. Thus, the abruptness and severity of an unfolding Arctic climate crisis has not been incorporated into long-range planning. The purpose of this report is to briefly review the physical basis for global climate change and Arctic amplification, summarize the ongoing observations, discuss the potential consequences, explain the need for an objective risk assessment, develop scenarios for future change, review existing modeling capabilities and the need for better regional models, and finally to make recommendations for Sandia's future role in preparing our leaders to deal with impacts of Arctic climate change on national security. Accurate and credible regional-scale climate models are still several years in the future, and those models are essential for estimating climate impacts around the globe. This study demonstrates how a scenario-based method may be used to give insights into climate impacts on a regional scale and possible mitigation. Because of our experience in the Arctic and widespread recognition of the Arctic's importance in the Earth climate system we chose the Arctic as a test case for an assessment of climate impacts on national security. Sandia can make a swift and significant contribution by applying modeling and simulation tools with internal collaborations as well as with outside

  2. Wise detections of known QSOs at redshifts greater than six

    SciTech Connect

    Blain, Andrew W.; Assef, Roberto; Stern, Daniel; Tsai, Chao-Wei; Eisenhardt, Peter; Bridge, Carrie; Benford, Dominic; Jarrett, Tom; Cutri, Roc; Petty, Sara; Wu, Jingwen; Wright, Edward L.

    2013-12-01

    We present WISE All-Sky mid-infrared (IR) survey detections of 55% (17/31) of the known QSOs at z > 6 from a range of surveys: the SDSS, the CFHT-LS, FIRST, Spitzer, and UKIDSS. The WISE catalog thus provides a substantial increase in the quantity of IR data available for these sources: 17 are detected in the WISE W1 (3.4 μm) band, 16 in W2 (4.6 μm), 3 in W3 (12 μm), and 0 in W4 (22 μm). This is particularly important with Spitzer in its warm-mission phase and no faint follow-up capability at wavelengths longward of 5 μm until the launch of James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). WISE thus provides a useful tool for understanding QSOs found in forthcoming large-area optical/IR sky surveys using PanSTARRS, SkyMapper, VISTA, DES, and LSST. The rest-UV properties of the WISE-detected and the WISE-non-detected samples differ: the detections have brighter i/z-band magnitudes and redder rest-UV colors. This suggests that a more aggressive hunt for very high redshift QSOs by combining WISE W1 and W2 data with red, observed optical colors could be effective at least for a subset of dusty candidate QSOs. Stacking the WISE images of the WISE-non-detected QSOs indicates that they are, on average, significantly fainter than the WISE-detected examples, and are thus not narrowly missing detection in the WISE catalog. The WISE catalog detection of three of our sample in the W3 band indicates that their mid-IR flux can be detected individually, although there is no stacked W3 detection of sources detected in W1 but not W3. Stacking analyses of WISE data for large active galactic nucleus samples will be a useful tool, and high-redshift QSOs of all types will be easy targets for JWST.

  3. Link-wise artificial compressibility method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asinari, Pietro; Ohwada, Taku; Chiavazzo, Eliodoro; Di Rienzo, Antonio F.

    2012-06-01

    The artificial compressibility method (ACM) for the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations is (link-wise) reformulated (referred to as LW-ACM) by a finite set of discrete directions (links) on a regular Cartesian mesh, in analogy with the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). The main advantage is the possibility of exploiting well established technologies originally developed for LBM and classical computational fluid dynamics, with special emphasis on finite differences (at least in the present paper), at the cost of minor changes. For instance, wall boundaries not aligned with the background Cartesian mesh can be taken into account by tracing the intersections of each link with the wall (analogously to LBM technology). LW-ACM requires no high-order moments beyond hydrodynamics (often referred to as ghost moments) and no kinetic expansion. Like finite difference schemes, only standard Taylor expansion is needed for analyzing consistency. Preliminary efforts towards optimal implementations have shown that LW-ACM is capable of similar computational speed as optimized (BGK-) LBM. In addition, the memory demand is significantly smaller than (BGK-) LBM. Importantly, with an efficient implementation, this algorithm may be among the few which are compute-bound and not memory-bound. Two- and three-dimensional benchmarks are investigated, and an extensive comparative study between the present approach and state of the art methods from the literature is carried out. Numerical evidences suggest that LW-ACM represents an excellent alternative in terms of simplicity, stability and accuracy.

  4. Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia.

    PubMed

    Mereu, Simone; Sušnik, Janez; Trabucco, Antonio; Daccache, Andre; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Lydia; Renoldi, Stefano; Virdis, Andrea; Savić, Dragan; Assimacopoulos, Dionysis

    2016-02-01

    Many (semi-) arid locations globally, and particularly islands, rely heavily on reservoirs for water supply. Some reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to climate and development changes (e.g. population change, tourist growth, hydropower demands). Irregularities and uncertainties in the fluvial regime associated with climate change and the continuous increase in water demand by different sectors will add new challenges to the management and to the resilience of these reservoirs. The resilience of vulnerable reservoirs must be studied in detail to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts of these changes. In this paper, a reservoir balance model is developed and presented for the Pedra e' Othoni reservoir in Sardinia, Italy, to assess resilience to climate and development changes. The model was first calibrated and validated, then forced with extensive ensemble climate data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, agricultural data, and with four socio-economic development scenarios. Future projections show a reduction in annual reservoir inflow and an increase in demand, mainly in the agricultural sector. Under no scenario is reservoir resilience significantly affected, the reservoir always achieves refill. However, this occurs at the partial expenses of hydropower production with implications for the production of renewable energy. There is also the possibility of conflict between the agricultural sector and hydropower sector for diminishing water supply. Pedra e' Othoni reservoir shows good resilience to future change mostly because of the disproportionately large basin feeding it. However this is not the case of other Sardinian reservoirs and hence a detailed resilience assessment of all reservoirs is needed, where development plans should carefully account for the trade-offs and potential conflicts among sectors. For Sardinia, the option of physical connection between reservoirs is available, as are alternative water supply measures

  5. The WISE Satellite Development: Managing the Risks and the Opportunities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duval, Valerie G.; Elwell, John D.; Howard, Joan F.; Irace, William R.; Liu, Feng-Chuan

    2010-01-01

    NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) MIDEX mission is surveying the entire sky in four infrared bands from 3.4 to 22 micrometers. The WISE instrument consists of a 40 cm telescope, a solid hydrogen cryostat, a scan mirror mechanism, and four 1K x1K infrared detectors. The WISE spacecraft bus provides communication, data handling, and avionics including instrument pointing. A Delta 7920 successfully launched WISE into a Sun-synchronous polar orbit on December 14, 2009. WISE was competitively selected by NASA as a Medium cost Explorer mission (MIDEX) in 2002. MIDEX missions are led by the Principal Investigator who delegates day-to-day management to the Project Manager. Given the tight cost cap and relatively short development schedule, NASA chose to extend the development period one year with an option to cancel the mission if certain criteria were not met. To meet this and other challenges, the WISE management team had to learn to work seamlessly across institutional lines and to recognize risks and opportunities in order to develop the flight hardware within the project resources. In spite of significant technical issues, the WISE satellite was delivered on budget and on schedule. This paper describes our management approach and risk posture, technical issues, and critical decisions made.

  6. Wise Regulates Bone Deposition through Genetic Interactions with Lrp5

    PubMed Central

    Ellies, Debra L.; Economou, Androulla; Viviano, Beth; Rey, Jean-Philippe; Paine-Saunders, Stephenie; Krumlauf, Robb; Saunders, Scott

    2014-01-01

    In this study using genetic approaches in mouse we demonstrate that the secreted protein Wise plays essential roles in regulating early bone formation through its ability to modulate Wnt signaling via interactions with the Lrp5 co-receptor. In Wise−/− mutant mice we find an increase in the rate of osteoblast proliferation and a transient increase in bone mineral density. This change in proliferation is dependent upon Lrp5, as Wise;Lrp5 double mutants have normal bone mass. This suggests that Wise serves as a negative modulator of Wnt signaling in active osteoblasts. Wise and the closely related protein Sclerostin (Sost) are expressed in osteoblast cells during temporally distinct early and late phases in a manner consistent with the temporal onset of their respective increased bone density phenotypes. These data suggest that Wise and Sost may have common roles in regulating bone development through their ability to control the balance of Wnt signaling. We find that Wise is also required to potentiate proliferation in chondrocytes, serving as a potential positive modulator of Wnt activity. Our analyses demonstrate that Wise plays a key role in processes that control the number of osteoblasts and chondrocytes during bone homeostasis and provide important insight into mechanisms regulating the Wnt pathway during skeletal development. PMID:24789067

  7. Update on the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mainzer, Amanda K.; Eisenhardt, Peter; Wright, Edward L.; Liu, Feng-Chuan; Irace, William; Heinrichsen, Ingolf; Cutri, Roc; Duval, Valerie

    2006-01-01

    The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE), a NASA MIDEX mission, will survey the entire sky in four bands from 3.3 to 23 microns with a sensitivity 1000 times greater than the IRAS survey. The WISE survey will extend the Two Micron All Sky Survey into the thermal infrared and will provide an important catalog for the James Webb Space Telescope. Using 1024(sup 2) HgCdTe and Si:As arrays at 3.3, 4.7, 12 and 23 microns, WISE will find the most luminous galaxies in the universe, the closest stars to the Sun, and it will detect most of the main belt asteroids larger than 3 km. The single WISE instrument consists of a 40 cm diamond-turned aluminum afocal telescope, a two-stage solid hydrogen cryostat, a scan mirror mechanism, and reimaging optics giving 5 resolution (full-width-half-maximum). The use of dichroics and beamsplitters allows four color images of a 47' x47' field of view to be taken every 8.8 seconds, synchronized with the orbital motion to provide total sky coverage with overlap between revolutions. WISE will be placed into a Sun-synchronous polar orbit on a Delta 7320-10 launch vehicle. The WISE survey approach is simple and efficient. The three-axis-stabilized spacecraft rotates at a constant rate while the scan mirror freezes the telescope line of sight during each exposure. WISE has completed its mission Preliminary Design Review and its NASA Confirmation Review, and the project is awaiting confirmation from NASA to proceed to the Critical Design phase. Much of the payload hardware is now complete, and assembly of the payload will occur over the next year. WISE is scheduled to launch in late 2009; the project web site can be found at www.wise.ssl.berkeley.edu.

  8. The Effect of a Case-Based Reasoning Instructional Model on Korean High School Students' Awareness in Climate Change Unit

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jeong, Jinwoo; Kim, Hyoungbum; Chae, Dong-hyun; Kim, Eunjeong

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the case-based reasoning instructional model on learning about climate change unit. Results suggest that students showed interest because it allowed them to find the solution to the problem and solve the problem for themselves by analogy from other cases such as crossword puzzles in an…

  9. Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reidsma, Pytrik; Wolf, Joost; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Schaap, Ben F.; Mandryk, Maryia; Verhagen, Jan; van Ittersum, Martin K.

    2015-04-01

    Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and (2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semi-quantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world.

  10. Undergraduate Students' Conceptions of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change: A Case Study Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trenbath, Thien-Kim Leckie

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation shows the evolution of five undergraduate students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change throughout a lecture hall course on climate change. This research was informed by conceptual change theory and students' inaccurate ideas of climate change. Subjects represented different levels of climate change understanding at…

  11. Sediment transport patterns and climate change: the downstream Tuul River case study, Northern Mongolia.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pietroń, Jan; Jarsjö, Jerker

    2014-05-01

    Ongoing changes in the Central Asian climate including increasing temperatures can influence the hydrological regimes of rivers and the waterborne transport of sediments. Changes in the latter, especially in combination with adverse human activities, may severely impact water quality and aquatic ecosystems. However, waterborne transport of sediments is a result of complex processes and varies considerably between, and even within, river systems. There is therefore a need to increase our general knowledge about sediment transport under changing climate conditions. The Tuul River, the case site of this study, is located in the upper part of the basin of the Selenga River that is the main tributary to Lake Baikal, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Like many other rivers located in the steppes of Northern Mongolia, the Tuul River is characterized by a hydrological regime that is not disturbed by engineered structures such as reservoirs and dams. However, the water quality of the downstream Tuul River is increasingly affected by adverse human activities - including placer gold mining. The largest contribution to the annual river discharge occurs during the relatively warm period in May to August. Typically, there are numerous rainfall events during this period that cause considerable river flow peaks. Parallel work has furthermore shown that due to climate change, the daily variability of discharge and numbers of peak flow events in the Tuul River Basin has increased during the past 60 years. This trend is expected to continue. We here aim at increasing our understanding of future sediment transport patterns in the Tuul River, specifically considering the scenario that peak flow events may become more frequent due to climate change. We use a one-dimensional sediment transport model of the downstream reach of the river to simulate natural patterns of sediment transport for a recent hydrological year. In general, the results show that sediment transport varies considerably

  12. Climate Change and Adaptation in Irrigated Agriculture-A Case Study of the Yakima River

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, Michael J; Vail, Lance W; Stockle, Claudio O; Kemanian, Armen

    2004-07-22

    Using a case study of the Yakima River Valley in Washington State, we show that relatively simple tools originally developed to forecast the impact of the El Nino phenomenon on water supplies to irrigated agriculture also can be used to estimate the significantly shifted probability distribution of water shortages in irrigated agriculture during climate change, and that these shifted probabilities can be used to estimate the impact on agriculture in a region. The more permanent nature of changes in the temperature and precipitation regime associated with climate change means that risk management options also take a more permanent form (such as changes in crops and cultivars, and adding storage). A number of storage options have been proposed to deal with El Nino-associated drought, and would be more valuable under climate change. The most ambitious of the proposed storage projects is Black Rock, which would add about 500,00 acre-feet of water to supplement the Yakima's current 1.1 million acre-feet, at a cost currently estimated at $1.9 billion. For perspective, economic losses in the Yakima Valley reportedly have been about $100 million in a drought year such as 2001. Under current circumstances, the expected annual fisheries and periodic drought relief benefits may be large enough to justify the expenditure, but since drought has been occasional, environmental consequences of new projects uncertain, and the price tag beyond the reach of all but the Federal government, no projects have been built. The benefits become more certain with warming. Analysis shows that adding 500,000 acre-feet to TWSA would offset El Nino and the effects of 2 C warming.

  13. Climate adaptation wedges: a case study of premium wine in the western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; White, Michael A.; Jones, Gregory V.; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2011-04-01

    Design and implementation of effective climate change adaptation activities requires quantitative assessment of the impacts that are likely to occur without adaptation, as well as the fraction of impact that can be avoided through each activity. Here we present a quantitative framework inspired by the greenhouse gas stabilization wedges of Pacala and Socolow. In our proposed framework, the damage avoided by each adaptation activity creates an 'adaptation wedge' relative to the loss that would occur without that adaptation activity. We use premium winegrape suitability in the western United States as an illustrative case study, focusing on the near-term period that covers the years 2000-39. We find that the projected warming over this period results in the loss of suitable winegrape area throughout much of California, including most counties in the high-value North Coast and Central Coast regions. However, in quantifying adaptation wedges for individual high-value counties, we find that a large adaptation wedge can be captured by increasing the severe heat tolerance, including elimination of the 50% loss projected by the end of the 2030-9 period in the North Coast region, and reduction of the projected loss in the Central Coast region from 30% to less than 15%. Increased severe heat tolerance can capture an even larger adaptation wedge in the Pacific Northwest, including conversion of a projected loss of more than 30% in the Columbia Valley region of Washington to a projected gain of more than 150%. We also find that warming projected over the near-term decades has the potential to alter the quality of winegrapes produced in the western US, and we discuss potential actions that could create adaptation wedges given these potential changes in quality. While the present effort represents an initial exploration of one aspect of one industry, the climate adaptation wedge framework could be used to quantitatively evaluate the opportunities and limits of climate adaptation

  14. Climate adaptation wedges: a case study of premium wine in the western United States

    SciTech Connect

    Diffenbaugh, Noah; White, Michael A; Jones, Gregory V; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2011-01-01

    Design and implementation of effective climate change adaptation activities requires quantitative assessment of the impacts that are likely to occur without adaptation, as well as the fraction of impact that can be avoided through each activity. Here we present a quantitative framework inspired by the greenhouse gas stabilization wedges of Pacala and Socolow. In our proposed framework, the damage avoided by each adaptation activity creates an 'adaptation wedge' relative to the loss that would occur without that adaptation activity. We use premium winegrape suitability in the western United States as an illustrative case study, focusing on the near-term period that covers the years 2000 39. We find that the projected warming over this period results in the loss of suitable winegrape area throughout much of California, including most counties in the high-value North Coast and Central Coast regions. However, in quantifying adaptation wedges for individual high-value counties, we find that a large adaptation wedge can be captured by increasing the severe heat tolerance, including elimination of the 50% loss projected by the end of the 2030 9 period in the North Coast region, and reduction of the projected loss in the Central Coast region from 30% to less than 15%. Increased severe heat tolerance can capture an even larger adaptation wedge in the Pacific Northwest, including conversion of a projected loss of more than 30% in the Columbia Valley region of Washington to a projected gain of more than 150%. We also find that warming projected over the near-term decades has the potential to alter the quality of winegrapes produced in the western US, and we discuss potential actions that could create adaptation wedges given these potential changes in quality. While the present effort represents an initial exploration of one aspect of one industry, the climate adaptation wedge framework could be used to quantitatively evaluate the opportunities and limits of climate adaptation

  15. Influences of Climate Change on Water Resources Availability of Costal Basins in Southeast China: a Case Study in Jinjiang Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Xiaolei; Yu, Jingshan; Li, Zhanjie; Sun, Wenchao

    2014-05-01

    In this study, the influences of climate change on water resources availability in a costal basin in southeast China, Jinjiang Basin, were assessed using the Block-wise use of the TOPmodel with the Muskingum-Cunge routing method (BTOPMC) distributed hydrological model. The ensemble average of downscaled output from sixteen GCMs for A1B emission scenario in 2050s was adopted to build regional climate change scenario. After calibration and validation for model parameters, the result of streamflow simulation proves that this BTOPMC hydrological model is applicable to this basin. Then the projected precipitation and temperature data were used to drive BTOPMC for predicting hydrological changes in 2050s. The evaluation of water resources available was carried out based on the simulation of streamflow in the downstream Shilong hydrologic station. Result shows that evapotranspiration will increase in most time of a year. Runoff in summer to early autumn exhibits an increasing trend. While in the rest period runoff show a decreasing trend, especially in spring season. From the perspective of water resource availability, it is indicated that the water resources may not be sufficient to meet the irrigation water demand in the spring season and one possible solution is to store more water in the reservoir in previous summer. The results of this study may benefit for making reasonable water resource management policy in the Jinjiang Basin. To make the policy in a more quantitive manner, an analysis about the amount of water needed for the whole basin is needed to decide how much extra water should be stored in the summer season.

  16. Eliciting climate experts' knowledge to address model uncertainties in regional climate projections: a case study of Guanacaste, Northwest Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossmann, I.; Steyn, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    Global general circulation models typically cannot provide the detailed and accurate regional climate information required by stakeholders for climate adaptation efforts, given their limited capacity to resolve the regional topography and changes in local sea surface temperature, wind and circulation patterns. The study region in Northwest Costa Rica has a tropical wet-dry climate with a double-peak wet season. During the dry season the central Costa Rican mountains prevent tropical Atlantic moisture from reaching the region. Most of the annual precipitation is received following the northward migration of the ITCZ in May that allows the region to benefit from moist southwesterly flow from the tropical Pacific. The wet season begins with a short period of "early rains" and is interrupted by the mid-summer drought associated with the intensification and westward expansion of the North Atlantic subtropical high in late June. Model projections for the 21st century indicate a lengthening and intensification of the mid-summer drought and a weakening of the early rains on which current crop cultivation practices rely. We developed an expert elicitation to systematically address uncertainties in the available model projections of changes in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Our approach extends an elicitation approach developed previously at Carnegie Mellon University. Experts in the climate of the study region or Central American climate were asked to assess the mechanisms driving precipitation during each part of the season, uncertainties regarding these mechanisms, expected changes in each mechanism in a warming climate, and the capacity of current models to reproduce these processes. To avoid overconfidence bias, a step-by-step procedure was followed to estimate changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation during each part of the season. The questions drew upon interviews conducted with the regions stakeholders to assess their climate information needs. This

  17. Experience of step-wise protocol using noninvasive positive pressure ventilation for treating cardiogenic pulmonary edema.

    PubMed

    Momii, Hidetoshi; Tashima, Yuki; Kadokami, Toshiaki; Narita, Sumito; Yoshida, Masayoshi; Ando, Shin-ichi

    2012-08-01

    Initiating and weaning procedure of noninvasive positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) on acute cardiogenic pulmonary edema (ACPE) has been determined empirically, and the total time of its use has been sometimes prolonged unnecessarily. A simple protocol for its use may facilitate initiation and avoids prolongation of the NIPPV treatment. We designed a step-wise protocol for NIPPV use and retrospectively examined the clinical outcome of our protocol for initiation and weaning of NIPPV in 45 patients with ACPE. Almost all patients recovered from respiratory distress successfully. There was no intubation nor complication related to NIPPV. In most of the cases, maximal-end expiratory pressure was less than 7-cm H2O. The mean duration of NIPPV was 19.5±28.0 h and the median duration was 8.0 h (interquartile range=14.0 h). This simple step-wise NIPPV protocol for ACPE can facilitate quick and safe initiation and termination of the treatment.

  18. The impact of an extreme case of irrigation on the southeastern United States climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Selman, Christopher; Misra, Vasubandhu

    2017-02-01

    The impacts of irrigation on southeast United States diurnal climate are investigated using simulations from a regional climate model. An extreme case is assumed, wherein irrigation is set to 100 % of field capacity over the growing season of May through October. Irrigation is applied to the root zone layers of 10-40 and 40-100 cm soil layers only. It is found that in this regime there is a pronounced decrease in monthly averaged temperatures in irrigated regions across all months. In non-irrigated areas a slight warming is simulated. Diurnal maximum temperatures in irrigated areas warm, while diurnal minimum temperatures cool. The daytime warming is attributed to an increase in shortwave flux at the surface owing to diminished low cloud cover. Nighttime and daily mean cooling result as a consequence repartitioning of energy into latent heat flux over sensible heat flux, and of a higher net downward ground heat flux. Excess heat is transported into the deep soil layer, preventing a rapidly intensifying positive feedback loop. Both diurnal and monthly average precipitations are reduced over irrigated areas at a magnitude and spatial pattern similar to one another. Due to the excess moisture availability, evaporation is seen to increase, but this is nearly balanced by a corresponding reduction in sensible heat flux. Concomitant with additional moisture availability is an increase in both transient and stationary moisture flux convergences. However, despite the increase, there is a large-scale stabilization of the atmosphere stemming from a cooled surface.

  19. The impact of an extreme case of irrigation on the southeastern United States climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Selman, Christopher; Misra, Vasubandhu

    2016-05-01

    The impacts of irrigation on southeast United States diurnal climate are investigated using simulations from a regional climate model. An extreme case is assumed, wherein irrigation is set to 100 % of field capacity over the growing season of May through October. Irrigation is applied to the root zone layers of 10-40 and 40-100 cm soil layers only. It is found that in this regime there is a pronounced decrease in monthly averaged temperatures in irrigated regions across all months. In non-irrigated areas a slight warming is simulated. Diurnal maximum temperatures in irrigated areas warm, while diurnal minimum temperatures cool. The daytime warming is attributed to an increase in shortwave flux at the surface owing to diminished low cloud cover. Nighttime and daily mean cooling result as a consequence repartitioning of energy into latent heat flux over sensible heat flux, and of a higher net downward ground heat flux. Excess heat is transported into the deep soil layer, preventing a rapidly intensifying positive feedback loop. Both diurnal and monthly average precipitations are reduced over irrigated areas at a magnitude and spatial pattern similar to one another. Due to the excess moisture availability, evaporation is seen to increase, but this is nearly balanced by a corresponding reduction in sensible heat flux. Concomitant with additional moisture availability is an increase in both transient and stationary moisture flux convergences. However, despite the increase, there is a large-scale stabilization of the atmosphere stemming from a cooled surface.

  20. Cold-Climate Case Study for Affordable Zero Energy Homes: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Norton, P.; Christensen, C.

    2006-07-01

    This project, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Building America Program, is a case study in reaching zero energy within the affordable housing sector in cold climates. The design of the 1200 square foot, 3-bedroom Denver zero energy home carefully combines envelope efficiency, efficient equipment, appliances and lighting, and passive and active solar features to reach the zero energy goal. The home was designed using an early version of the BEOpt building optimization software with additional analysis using DOE2. This engineering approach was tempered by regular discussions with Habitat construction staff and volunteers. These discussions weighed the applicability of the optimized solutions to the special needs and economics of a Habitat house--moving the design towards simple, easily maintained mechanical systems and volunteer-friendly construction techniques.

  1. Alluvial fan sensitivity to glacial-interglacial climate change: case studies from Death Valley.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whittaker, Alexander; D'Arcy, Mitch; Roda-Boluda, Duna; Brooke, Sam

    2016-04-01

    The effects of climate change on eroding landscapes and the sedimentary record remain poorly understood. The measurement of regional grain size trends in stream-flow deposits provides one way to address this issue because, in principle, these trends embed important information on the dynamics of sediment routing systems and their sensitivity to external forcings. In many cases, downstream stratigraphic fining is primarily driven by selective deposition of sediment. The relative efficiency of this process is determined by the physical characteristics of the input sediment supply and the spatial distribution of subsidence rate, which generates the accommodation necessary for mass extraction. Here, we measure grain size fining rates from apex to toe for alluvial fan systems in Death Valley, California, which have well-exposed modern and late Pleistocene deposits, where the long-term tectonic boundary conditions are known and where climatic variation over this time period is well-constrained. Our field data demonstrate that input grain sizes and input fining rates do vary noticeably over the late Pleistocene-Holocene period in this study area, although there is little evidence for significant changes in rates of faulting in the last 200 ky. For two catchments in the Grapevine Mountains for which we have excellent stratigraphic constraints on modern and 70 ka fan deposits, we use a self-similarity based grain size fining model to understand changes in sediment flux to the fans over this time period. When calibrated with cosmogenically-derived catchment erosion rates, our results show that a 30 % decrease in average precipitation rate over this time-frame led to a 20 % decrease in sediment flux to the fans, and a clear increase in the down-fan rate of fining. This supports existing landscape evolution models that relate a decrease in precipitation rate to a decrease in sediment flux, but implies that the relationship between sediment flux and precipitation rate may be

  2. Big Data Sensors of Organic Advocacy: The Case of Leonardo DiCaprio and Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Althouse, Benjamin M.; Dredze, Mark; Obradovich, Nick; Fowler, James H.; Noar, Seth M.; Allem, Jon-Patrick

    2016-01-01

    The strategies that experts have used to share information about social causes have historically been top-down, meaning the most influential messages are believed to come from planned events and campaigns. However, more people are independently engaging with social causes today than ever before, in part because online platforms allow them to instantaneously seek, create, and share information. In some cases this “organic advocacy” may rival or even eclipse top-down strategies. Big data analytics make it possible to rapidly detect public engagement with social causes by analyzing the same platforms from which organic advocacy spreads. To demonstrate this claim we evaluated how Leonardo DiCaprio’s 2016 Oscar acceptance speech citing climate change motivated global English language news (Bloomberg Terminal news archives), social media (Twitter postings) and information seeking (Google searches) about climate change. Despite an insignificant increase in traditional news coverage (54%; 95%CI: -144 to 247), tweets including the terms “climate change” or “global warming” reached record highs, increasing 636% (95%CI: 573–699) with more than 250,000 tweets the day DiCaprio spoke. In practical terms the “DiCaprio effect” surpassed the daily average effect of the 2015 Conference of the Parties (COP) and the Earth Day effect by a factor of 3.2 and 5.3, respectively. At the same time, Google searches for “climate change” or “global warming” increased 261% (95%CI, 186–335) and 210% (95%CI 149–272) the day DiCaprio spoke and remained higher for 4 more days, representing 104,190 and 216,490 searches. This increase was 3.8 and 4.3 times larger than the increases observed during COP’s daily average or on Earth Day. Searches were closely linked to content from Dicaprio’s speech (e.g., “hottest year”), as unmentioned content did not have search increases (e.g., “electric car”). Because these data are freely available in real time our

  3. Big Data Sensors of Organic Advocacy: The Case of Leonardo DiCaprio and Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Leas, Eric C; Althouse, Benjamin M; Dredze, Mark; Obradovich, Nick; Fowler, James H; Noar, Seth M; Allem, Jon-Patrick; Ayers, John W

    2016-01-01

    The strategies that experts have used to share information about social causes have historically been top-down, meaning the most influential messages are believed to come from planned events and campaigns. However, more people are independently engaging with social causes today than ever before, in part because online platforms allow them to instantaneously seek, create, and share information. In some cases this "organic advocacy" may rival or even eclipse top-down strategies. Big data analytics make it possible to rapidly detect public engagement with social causes by analyzing the same platforms from which organic advocacy spreads. To demonstrate this claim we evaluated how Leonardo DiCaprio's 2016 Oscar acceptance speech citing climate change motivated global English language news (Bloomberg Terminal news archives), social media (Twitter postings) and information seeking (Google searches) about climate change. Despite an insignificant increase in traditional news coverage (54%; 95%CI: -144 to 247), tweets including the terms "climate change" or "global warming" reached record highs, increasing 636% (95%CI: 573-699) with more than 250,000 tweets the day DiCaprio spoke. In practical terms the "DiCaprio effect" surpassed the daily average effect of the 2015 Conference of the Parties (COP) and the Earth Day effect by a factor of 3.2 and 5.3, respectively. At the same time, Google searches for "climate change" or "global warming" increased 261% (95%CI, 186-335) and 210% (95%CI 149-272) the day DiCaprio spoke and remained higher for 4 more days, representing 104,190 and 216,490 searches. This increase was 3.8 and 4.3 times larger than the increases observed during COP's daily average or on Earth Day. Searches were closely linked to content from Dicaprio's speech (e.g., "hottest year"), as unmentioned content did not have search increases (e.g., "electric car"). Because these data are freely available in real time our analytical strategy provides substantial lead time

  4. On Pixel-Wise Explanations for Non-Linear Classifier Decisions by Layer-Wise Relevance Propagation

    PubMed Central

    Montavon, Grégoire; Klauschen, Frederick; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Samek, Wojciech

    2015-01-01

    Understanding and interpreting classification decisions of automated image classification systems is of high value in many applications, as it allows to verify the reasoning of the system and provides additional information to the human expert. Although machine learning methods are solving very successfully a plethora of tasks, they have in most cases the disadvantage of acting as a black box, not providing any information about what made them arrive at a particular decision. This work proposes a general solution to the problem of understanding classification decisions by pixel-wise decomposition of nonlinear classifiers. We introduce a methodology that allows to visualize the contributions of single pixels to predictions for kernel-based classifiers over Bag of Words features and for multilayered neural networks. These pixel contributions can be visualized as heatmaps and are provided to a human expert who can intuitively not only verify the validity of the classification decision, but also focus further analysis on regions of potential interest. We evaluate our method for classifiers trained on PASCAL VOC 2009 images, synthetic image data containing geometric shapes, the MNIST handwritten digits data set and for the pre-trained ImageNet model available as part of the Caffe open source package. PMID:26161953

  5. Impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production. Case study of bufumbo sub county in Mt. Elgon region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    David, Wafula

    2012-07-01

    Like other Sub-Saharan Africa countries,Uganda's agriculture is subsistence and rain-fed making it vulnerable to climate variability and change. Agricultural performance of the farmers in Bufumbo Sub County largely depends on climatic conditions (rainfall and temperature) implying that, there is likelihood that fluctuations in agricultural outputs are closely linked to climate variability and climate change. This study aims at assessing the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production in a montane agro-ecological zone of Uganda-Case study of Bufumbo Sub County(Mt. Elgon region. A sample size of 180 farmers will be selected for questionnaire administration (30 respondents in each Parish) with the help of the village leaders. Secondary data on climate, crop yields and soil variables will be obtained from the department of meteorology/ satellite databases, district production/agriculture office and soil maps from FAO (1975) and department of Agriculture respectively. Statistical data will be coded, summarized in frequency tables in excel sheets and analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences spreadsheet. While spatial data such as soil and satellite images will be analysed and interpreted using Envisat, ArcGIS 9.3 and ILWIS. Crop yield time series will be analysed using Fapar algorithm using MISR data. The expected results shall be inform of Geo-spatial vulnerability maps, time series satellite images of crop yields, climate change projections and practical adaptation measures for farmers.

  6. Explanatory Supplement to the WISE All-Sky Release Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2012-01-01

    The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE; Wright et al. 2010) surveyed the entire sky at 3.4, 4.6, 12 and 22 microns in 2010, achieving 5-sigma point source sensitivities per band better than 0.08, 0.11, 1 and 6 mJy in unconfused regions on the ecliptic. The WISE All-Sky Data Release, conducted on March 14, 2012, incorporates all data taken during the full cryogenic mission phase, 7 January 2010 to 6 August 20l0,that were processed with improved calibrations and reduction algorithms. Release data products include: (1) an Atlas of 18,240 match-filtered, calibrated and coadded image sets; (2) a Source Catalog containing positions and four-band photometry for over 563 million objects, and (3) an Explanatory Supplement. Ancillary products include a Reject Table that contains 284 million detections that were not selected for the Source Catalog because they are low signal-to-noise ratio or spurious detections of image artifacts, an archive of over 1.5 million sets of calibrated WISE Single-exposure images, and a database of 9.4 billion source extractions from those single images, and moving object tracklets identified by the NEOWISE program (Mainzer et aI. 2011). The WISE All-Sky Data Release products supersede those from the WISE Preliminary Data Release (Cutri et al. 2011). The Explanatory Supplement to the WISE All-Sky Data Release Products is a general guide for users of the WISE data. The Supplement contains an overview of the WISE mission, facilities, and operations, a detailed description of WISE data processing algorithms, a guide to the content and formals of the image and tabular data products, and cautionary notes that describe known limitations of the All-Sky Release products. Instructions for accessing the WISE data products via the services of the NASA/IPAC Infrared Science Archive are provided. The Supplement also provides analyses of the achieved sky coverage, photometric and astrometric characteristics and completeness and reliability of the All

  7. Climate regionalization for main production areas of Indonesia: Case study of West Java

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perdinan; Farysca Adi, Ryco; Sugiarto, Yon; Arifah, Annisa; Yustisi Arini, Enggar; Atmaja, Tri

    2017-01-01

    Spatially, climate condition is vary within a region and considered as essential information for planning activities such as agro-climate zonation. An approach to understand the spatial climate variability is the utilization of climate regionalization that is applied to rainfall data to distinguish differences in the pattern and magnitude (characteristics) of spatial rainfall variability over a region. Unfortunately, the application of climate regionalization poses a challenging issue in Indonesia, considering the availability of climate data. Recent advances in satellite and reanalysis data measuring climate variability over a large area provided an opportunity for the application of climate regionalization in the country. Using the West Java, one of main crop production regions in Indonesia, climate regionalization techniques were applied to map spatial variability of climate types based on rainfall data recorded by climate stations (point based analysis) and estimated by modeled/reanalysis data and satellite observations (gridded data). The regionalization derived from gridded rainfall data have reasonably better in capturing the zonal pattern of differences in climate types within the study region than the regionalization applied to insufficient numbers of site-based rainfall observation. This indicates that the gridded data offers an alternative for climate regionalization, when site-based observations are unavailable or limited.

  8. A Case Study in Caribbean Climate Change: Impacts on Crop Suitability and Small Farmer Vulnerability in St. Elizabeth, Jamaica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curtis, W. R.; Gamble, D. W.; Popke, J.

    2013-12-01

    This paper examines some of the implications of climate change for farming in the Caribbean, through an analysis of future crop suitability and a case study of climate variability and agricultural practices in St. Elizabeth Parish, Jamaica. To assess potential changes in Caribbean agriculture, we present results from a water budget model based on a 100-year regional climate projection of temperature and precipitation for the circum-Caribbean basin. We find that future water deficits in the region are climate type-dependent. Savanna climates experience the largest annual changes, while semi-arid environments are greatly impacted in the spring. When the impacts of temperature and precipitation are considered separately, we find that predicted future warming, and the associated increase in evapotranspiration, has a slightly larger climatological effect on crop water need than predicted decreases in precipitation. To illustrate how a changing climate regime may impact agricultural practices, we present results from recent fieldwork in St. Elizabeth Parish, one of the main farming regions on the island of Jamaica. Drawing on data from farmer interviews and a recently-installed weather mesonet, we highlight the ways in which local microclimates influence farmer livelihood strategies and community-level vulnerability. Initial results suggest that farmers are experiencing greater climate variability, and that communities with Savanna and semi-arid type climates may be more susceptible to drought than communities in wetter, higher-elevation microclimates. These changes have enhanced the importance of irrigation technology and water management strategies for successful farming. In this context, we argue, large, well-capitalized farmers may be better able to manage the uncertainties associated with climate change, leading to an uneven landscape of vulnerability across the region.

  9. To what extent does climate explain variations in reported malaria cases in early 20th century Uganda?

    PubMed

    Tompkins, Adrian M; Larsen, Laragh; McCreesh, Nicky; Taylor, David

    2016-03-31

    Malaria case statistics were analysed for the period 1926 to 1960 to identify inter-annual variations in malaria cases for the Uganda Protectorate. The analysis shows the mid-to-late 1930s to be a period of increased reported cases. After World War II, malaria cases trend down to a relative minimum in the early 1950s, before increasing rapidly after 1953 to the end of the decade. Data for the Western Province confirm these national trends, which at the time were attributed to a wide range of causes, including land development and management schemes, population mobility, interventions and misdiagnosis. Climate was occasionally proposed as a contributor to enhanced case numbers, and unusual precipitation patterns were held responsible; temperature was rarely, if ever, considered. In this study, a dynamical malaria model was driven with available precipitation and temperature data from the period for five stations located across a range of environments in Uganda. In line with the historical data, the simulations produced relatively enhanced transmission in the 1930s, although there is considerable variability between locations. In all locations, malaria transmission was low in the late 1940s and early 1950s, steeply increasing after 1954. Results indicate that past climate variability explains some of the variations in numbers of reported malaria cases. The impact of multiannual variability in temperature, while only on the order of 0.5°C, was sufficient to drive some of the trends observed in the statistics and thus the role of climate was likely underestimated in the contemporary reports. As the elimination campaigns of the 1960s followed this partly climate-driven increase in malaria, this emphasises the need to account for climate when planning and evaluating intervention strategies.

  10. Vulnerability and impact assessment of extreme climatic event: A case study of southern Punjab, Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Aslam, Abdul Qayyum; Ahmad, Sajid R; Ahmad, Iftikhar; Hussain, Yawar; Hussain, Muhammad Sameem

    2017-02-15

    Understanding of frequency, severity, damages and adaptation costs of climate extremes is crucial to manage their aftermath. Evaluation of PRECIS RCM modelled data under IPCC scenarios in Southern Punjab reveals that monthly mean temperature is 30°C under A2 scenario, 2.4°C higher than A1B which is 27.6°C in defined time lapses. Monthly mean precipitation under A2 scenario ranges from 12 to 15mm and for A1B scenario it ranges from 15 to 19mm. Frequency modelling of floods and droughts via poisson distribution shows increasing trend in upcoming decades posing serious impacts on agriculture and livestock, food security, water resources, public health and economic status. Cumulative loss projected for frequent floods without adaptation will be in the range of USD 66.8-79.3 billion in time lapse of 40years from 2010 base case. Drought damage function @ 18% for A2 scenario and @ 13.5% for A1B scenario was calculated; drought losses on agriculture and livestock sectors were modelled. Cumulative loss projected for frequent droughts without adaptation under A2 scenario will be in the range of USD 7.5-8.5 billion while under A1B scenario it will be in the range of USD 3.5-4.2 billion for time lapse of 60years from base case 1998-2002. Severity analysis of extreme events shows that situation get worse if adaptations are not only included in the policy but also in the integrated development framework with required allocation of funds. This evaluation also highlights the result of cost benefit analysis, benefits of the adaptation options (mean & worst case) for floods and droughts in Southern Punjab. Additionally the research highlights the role of integrated extreme events impact assessment methodology in performing the vulnerability assessments and to support the adaptation decisions. This paper is an effort to highlight importance of bottom up approaches to deal with climate change.

  11. Choosing wisely: Review and commentary on anti-nuclear antibody (ANA) testing.

    PubMed

    Fritzler, Marvin J

    2016-03-01

    Choosing Wisely®: Next Steps in Improving Healthcare Value is an initiative of the American Board of Internal Medicine (ABIM) Foundation. The driving forces for the Choosing Wisely (CW) campaign include rising and unstainable health care expenditures and evidence that there is lack of fiscal stewardship of health care resources. The American College of Rheumatology and the Canadian Rheumatology Association published their top five Choosing Wisely recommendations, the first of which pertained to antinuclear antibodies (ANA) and ANA subserology testing. Concerns about the wasteful use of these tests prompted an analysis of the expenditures attributable to ANA testing as a proportion of total health care expenditures and based on a financial model was in the range of 0.00125%. It is suggested that if the sole use of ANA testing is to add evidence to support a diagnosis when the pre-test probability is high, then the ANA test has limited clinical value. Accordingly, the goal of ANA testing needs to be reconsidered and expanded beyond an approach to simply confirming a diagnosis with 'intention to treat' to a goal of case finding of 'pre- or early disease' with an 'intent to prevent' disease. This an area where more significant inroads can be made in preventing end organ disease and thereby reducing health care expenditures HCE. One CW recommendation that bears emphasizing is that, with a few possible exceptions, repeat ANA or ANA subserology testing has little clinical value in monitoring disease activity or predicting a flare.

  12. Coupled flap and edge wise blade motion due to a quadratic wind force definition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Male, P.; van Dalen, K. N.

    2014-06-01

    The wind force on turbine blades, consisting of a drag and lift component, depends nonlinearly on the relative wind velocity. This relative velocity comprises mean wind speed, wind speed fluctuations and the structural response velocity. The nonlinear wind excitation couples the flap wise and edge wise response of a turbine blade. To analyze this motion coupling, an isolated blade is modelled as a continuous cantilever beam and corresponding nonlinear expressions for the drag and lift force are defined. After reduction of the model on the basis of its principal modes, the nonlinear response up to the second order is derived with the help of a Volterra series expansion and the harmonic probing technique. This technique allows for response analysis in the frequency domain, via which the combined flap and edge wise responses can easily be visualized. As a specific case, the characteristics of the NREL5 turbine blades are adopted. For both non-operating and operating conditions, blade responses in a turbulent wave field, based on a Kaimal spectrum, are determined. The second-order responses are shown to cause additional motion coupling, and moreover, are proven not to be negligible straightforwardly.

  13. Community Wise: Paving the Way for Empowerment in Community Reentry

    PubMed Central

    Windsor, Liliane Cambraia; Jemal, Alexis; Benoit, Ellen

    2014-01-01

    Theoretical approaches traditionally applied in mental health and criminal justice interventions fail to address the historical and structural context that partially explains health disparities. Community Wise was developed to address this gap. It is a 12 week group intervention informed by Critical Consciousness Theory and designed to prevent substance abuse, related health risk behaviors, psychological distress, and reoffending among individuals with a history of incarceration and substance abuse. This paper reports findings from the first implementation and pilot evaluation of Community Wise in two community-based organizations. This pre-posttest evaluation pilot-tested Community Wise and used findings to improve the intervention. Twenty-six participants completed a phone and clinical screening, baseline, 6- and 12-week follow-ups, and a focus group at the end of the intervention. Measures assessed participants’ demographic information, psychological distress, substance use, criminal offending, HIV risk behaviors, community cohesion, community support, civic engagement, critical consciousness, ethnic identification, group cohesion, client satisfaction, and acquired treatment skills. Research methods were found to be feasible and useful in assessing the intervention. Results indicated that while Community Wise is a promising intervention, several changes need to be made in order to enhance the intervention. Community Wise is a new approach where oppressed individuals join in critical dialogue, tap into existing community resources, and devise, implement and evaluate their own community solutions to structural barriers. PMID:24630737

  14. Chemistry Teachers' Views on Teaching "Climate Change"--An Interview Case Study from Research-Oriented Learning in Teacher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feierabend, Timo; Jokmin, Sebastian; Eilks, Ingo

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a case study from research-oriented learning in chemistry teacher education. The study evaluates the views of twenty experienced German chemistry teachers about the teaching of climate change in chemistry education. Data was collected using semi-structured interviews about the teachers' experiences and their views about…

  15. Simulation of Urban Climate with High-Resolution WRF Model: A Case Study in Nanjing, China

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Ben; Zhang, Yaocun; Qian, Yun

    2012-08-05

    In this study, urban climate in Nanjing of eastern China is simulated using 1-km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer Urban Canopy Model. Based on the 10-summer simulation results from 2000 to 2009 we find that the WRF model is capable of capturing the high-resolution features of urban climate over Nanjing area. Although WRF underestimates the total precipitation amount, the model performs well in simulating the surface air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation frequency, diurnal cycle and inter-annual variability. We find that extremely hot events occur most frequently in urban area, with daily maximum (minimum) temperature exceeding 36ºC (28ºC) in around 40% (32%) of days. Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect at surface is more evident during nighttime than daytime, with 20% of cases the UHI intensity above 2.5ºC at night. However, The UHI affects the vertical structure of Planet Boundary Layer (PBL) more deeply during daytime than nighttime. Net gain for latent heat and net radiation is larger over urban than rural surface during daytime. Correspondingly, net loss of sensible heat and ground heat are larger over urban surface resulting from warmer urban skin. Because of different diurnal characteristics of urban-rural differences in the latent heat, ground heat and other energy fluxes, the near surface UHI intensity exhibits a very complex diurnal feature. UHI effect is stronger in days with less cloud or lower wind speed. Model results reveal a larger precipitation frequency over urban area, mainly contributed by the light rain events (<10 mm day-1). Consistent with satellite dataset, around 10-20% more precipitation occurs in urban than rural area at afternoon induced by more unstable urban PBL, which induces a strong vertical atmospheric mixing and upward moisture transport. A significant enhancement of precipitation is found in the downwind region of urban in our simulations in the afternoon.

  16. Predicting Unprecedented Dengue Outbreak Using Imported Cases and Climatic Factors in Guangzhou, 2014

    PubMed Central

    Bi, Peng; Yang, Weizhong; Yang, Zhicong; Xu, Lei; Yang, Jun; Liu, Xiaobo; Jiang, Tong; Wu, Haixia; Chu, Cordia; Liu, Qiyong

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries, mainly in tropical and subtropical regions, and the incidence has increased 30-fold in the past 50 years. The situation of dengue in China has become more and more severe, with an unprecedented dengue outbreak hitting south China in 2014. Building a dengue early warning system is therefore urgent and necessary for timely and effective response. Methodology and Principal Findings In the study we developed a time series Poisson multivariate regression model using imported dengue cases, local minimum temperature and accumulative precipitation to predict the dengue occurrence in four districts of Guangzhou, China. The time series data were decomposed into seasonal, trend and remainder components using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL). The time lag of climatic factors included in the model was chosen based on Spearman correlation analysis. Autocorrelation, seasonality and long-term trend were controlled in the model. A best model was selected and validated using Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) score and residual test. The data from March 2006 to December 2012 were used to develop the model while the data from January 2013 to September 2014 were employed to validate the model. Time series Poisson model showed that imported cases in the previous month, minimum temperature in the previous month and accumulative precipitation with three month lags could project the dengue outbreaks occurred in 2013 and 2014 after controlling the autocorrelation, seasonality and long-term trend. Conclusions Together with the sole transmission vector Aedes albopictus, imported cases, monthly minimum temperature and monthly accumulative precipitation may be used to develop a low-cost effective early warning system. PMID:26020627

  17. Undergraduate students' conceptions of natural and anthropogenic climate change: A case study approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trenbath, Thien-Kim Leckie

    This dissertation shows the evolution of five undergraduate students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change throughout a lecture hall course on climate change. This research was informed by conceptual change theory and students' inaccurate ideas of climate change. Subjects represented different levels of climate change understanding at the beginning of the course and were selected based on their scores on a climate change questionnaire. The study was designed to research how students' ideas changed throughout the course and compare trajectories of lower and higher achieving students. At the beginning, students had different levels of understanding, but as the semester continued, the lower-performing students progressed more than the higher-performing students. At the end of the course, all students described more ideas than they did at the beginning; however some of these ideas were inconsistent with the professors' instruction. Lower-performing students struggled more than the higher-performing students. Struggles included differentiating climate change and its causes, effects, and consequences from other environmental problems. Students also struggled with the idea that climate change is anthropogenic despite it being natural in the past. In order to understand that climate change is impacted by human forcings in addition to natural forcings, students developed the relationship that climate change is natural and humans are "speeding it up." They took time to integrate this relationship into their prior ideas. Three of the students constructed a definition of climate change that was different than the professor's. Two students defined "climate change" as only the natural aspects of climate change and reserved the anthropogenic changes for the term "global warming". For a third student, "climate change" included damming rivers, eutrophication, frog mutations, ozone depletion, and overfishing, which are environmental ailments but not climate change.

  18. Porting Big Data technology across domains. WISE for MUSE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vriend, Willem-Jan

    2015-12-01

    Due to the nature of MUSE data, each data-cube obtained as part of the GTO program is used by most of the consortium institutes which are spread across Europe. Since the effort required in reducing the data is significant, and to ensure uniformity in analysis, it is desirable to have a data management system that integrates data reduction, provenance tracking, quality control and data analysis. Such a system should support the distribution of storage and processing over the consortium institutes. The MUSE-WISE system incorporates these aspects. It is built on the Astro-WISE system, originally designed to handle OmegaCAM imaging data, which has been extended to support 3D spectroscopic data. MUSE-WISE is now being used to process MUSE GTO data. It currently stores 95 TB consisting of 48k raw exposures and processed data used by 79 users spread over 7 nodes in Europe.

  19. THE SPITZER-WISE SURVEY OF THE ECLIPTIC POLES

    SciTech Connect

    Jarrett, T. H.; Masci, F.; Cutri, R. M.; Marsh, K.; Padgett, D.; Tsai, C. W.; Cohen, M.; Wright, E.; Petty, S.; Stern, D.; Eisenhardt, P.; Mainzer, A.; Ressler, M.; Benford, D.; Blain, A.; Carey, S.; Surace, J.; Lonsdale, C.; Skrutskie, M.; Stanford, S.

    2011-07-10

    We have carried out a survey of the north and south ecliptic poles, EP-N and EP-S, respectively, with the Spitzer Space Telescope and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). The primary objective was to cross-calibrate WISE with the Spitzer and Midcourse Space Experiment (MSX) photometric systems by developing a set of calibration stars that are common to these infrared missions. The ecliptic poles were continuous viewing zones for WISE due to its polar-crossing orbit, making these areas ideal for both absolute and internal calibrations. The Spitzer IRAC and MIPS imaging survey covers a complete area of 0.40 deg{sup 2} for the EP-N and 1.28 deg{sup 2} for the EP-S. WISE observed the whole sky in four mid-infrared bands, 3.4, 4.6, 12, and 22 {mu}m, during its eight-month cryogenic mission, including several hundred ecliptic polar passages; here we report on the highest coverage depths achieved by WISE, an area of {approx}1.5 deg{sup 2} for both poles. Located close to the center of the EP-N, the Sy-2 galaxy NGC 6552 conveniently functions as a standard calibrator to measure the red response of the 22 {mu}m channel of WISE. Observations from Spitzer-IRAC/MIPS/IRS-LL and WISE show that the galaxy has a strong red color in the mid-infrared due to star-formation and the presence of an active galactic nucleus (AGN), while over a baseline >1 year the mid-IR photometry of NGC 6552 is shown to vary at a level less than 2%. Combining NGC 6552 with the standard calibrator stars, the achieved photometric accuracy of the WISE calibration, relative to the Spitzer and MSX systems, is 2.4%, 2.8%, 4.5%, and 5.7% for W1 (3.4 {mu}m), W2 (4.6 {mu}m), W3 (12 {mu}m), and W4 (22 {mu}m), respectively. The WISE photometry is internally stable to better than 0.1% over the cryogenic lifetime of the mission. The secondary objective of the Spitzer-WISE Survey was to explore the poles at greater flux-level depths, exploiting the higher angular resolution Spitzer observations and the

  20. The Porcupine Survey: A Distributed Survey and WISE Followup

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, Edward L.; Eisenhardt, P. R. M.; Mainzer, A. K.; Kirkpatrick, J. D.; Cohen, M.

    2007-10-01

    Spitzer post-cryogen observations to perform a moderate depth survey distributed around the sky are proposed. Field centers are chosen to be WISE brown dwarf candidates, which will typically be 160 μJy at 4.7 μm and randomly distributed around the sky. The Spitzer observations will give much higher sensitivity, higher angular resolution, and a time baseline to measure both proper motions and possibly parallaxes. The distance and velocity data obtained on the WISE brown dwarf candidates will greatly improve our knowledge of the mass and age distribution of brown dwarfs. The outer parts of the Spitzer fields surrounding the WISE positions will provide a deep survey in many narrow fields of view distributed around the sky, and the volume of this survey will contain many more distant brown dwarfs, and many extragalactic objects.

  1. Chord-wise Tip Actuation on Flexible Flapping Plates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, Nathan; Gharib, Morteza

    2015-11-01

    The aerodynamic characteristics of low aspect ratio flapping plates are strongly influenced by the interaction between tip and edge vortices. This has led to the development of tip actuation mechanisms which bend the tip towards the root of the plate in the span-wise direction during oscillation to investigate its impact. In our current work, a tip actuation mechanism to bend a flat plate's two free corners towards one another in the chord-wise direction is developed using a shape memory alloy. The aerodynamic forces and resulting flow field are investigated from dynamically altering the tip chord-wise curvature while flapping. The frequency of oscillation, stroke angle, flexibility, and tip actuation timing are independently varied to determine their individual effects. These results will further the fundamental understanding of flapping wing aerodynamics. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship under Grant No. DGE 1144469.

  2. Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

    PubMed Central

    Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    Background Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Objective The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. Design The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. Results The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. Conclusions The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to

  3. Avoiding the Unfavorable Outcome with Wise Pattern Breast Reduction.

    PubMed

    Hansen, Juliana E

    2016-04-01

    Wise pattern breast reduction remains the most popular method of performing moderate- to large-sized breast reductions in the United States. Shape distortion after breast reduction can be a result of design flaw, execution of technique, or the result of postoperative complications. This article focuses primarily on optimal design and intraoperative techniques for prevention of shape distortion. By carefully considering the design of the skin resection pattern, choosing and designing an appropriate pedicle, preventing skin necrosis, and managing scars, shape distortion after Wise pattern breast reduction can be minimized.

  4. Does Integration Help Adapt to Climate Change? Case of Increased US Corn Yield Volatility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verma, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Hertel, T. W.

    2012-12-01

    and reduces its demand. In the presence of domestic integration, ethanol production rises to substitute oil in the gasoline blend and thereby increases the corn demand and prices. However if one takes into account increase in corn price due to increased production costs (increase in oil price increases fertilizer prices - a major input into corn production) and reduced corn prices due to reduced fuel demand and therefore reduced ethanol additive demand; the prices can go either way. Our initial simulations show that they do in fact go down with mandate driven integration. This raises some more general questions: Whether integration (intersectoral and international) can be an effective strategy for adapting to climate change? And which of the four adaptation options - RFS or oil price driven domestic integration, full corn tariff liberalization or restricting tariff manipulation by partners - would be more effective in comparison to other adaptation (including no adaptation) scenarios? We implement the alternative adaptation strategies, while sampling from the same corn yield and oil price distributions and compare the resulting corn price variations to the base case where no such adaptation has been undertaken. Our initial results suggest that intersectoral integration is more effective form of adaptation than international one, but only if driven by market forces and not mandates.

  5. Climate impacts of short-lived climate forcers versus CO2 from biodiesel: a case of the EU on-road sector.

    PubMed

    Lund, Marianne T; Berntsen, Terje K; Fuglestvedt, Jan S

    2014-12-16

    Biofuels are proposed to play an important role in several mitigation strategies to meet future CO2 emission targets for the transport sector but remain controversial due to significant uncertainties in net impacts on environment, society, and climate. A switch to biofuels can also affect short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which provide significant contributions to the net climate impact of transportation. We quantify the radiative forcing (RF) and global-mean temperature response over time to EU on-road fossil diesel SLCFs and the impact of 20% (B20) and 100% (B100) replacement of fossil diesel by biodiesel. SLCFs are compared to impacts of on-road CO2 using different approaches from existing literature to account for biodiesel CO2. Given the best estimates for changes in emissions when replacing fossil diesel with biodiesel, the net positive RF from EU on-road fossil diesel SLCFs of 3.4 mW/m(2) is reduced by 15% and 80% in B20 and B100, respectively. Over time the warming of SLCFs is likely small compared to biodiesel CO2 impacts. However, SLCFs may be relatively more important for the total warming than in the fossil fuel case if biodiesel from feedstock with very short rotation periods and low land-use-change impacts replaces a high fraction of fossil diesel.

  6. Assessing the geomorphological sensitivity of cold climate mountains to climate-driven permafrost degradation: the case of the Russian Altai Mountains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hendrickx, Hanne; Nyssen, Jan; Sannel, Britta; Goossens, Rudi; Lehmkuhl, Frank; Babin, Valery; Bourgeois, Jean; Lanckriet, Sil; Frankl, Amaury

    2016-04-01

    In cold regions, climate change related permafrost thawing is causing geomorphic processes to intensify. This is especially the case in mountain regions, where several studies indicate increased geomorphic activity with the recent thawing of permafrost bodies. In addition to the effect on geomorphic processes, permafrost degradation also results in increased CO2 and CH4 emissions. This causes a positive feedback mechanism on climate change processes. For both the intensity of geomorphic processes and rate of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, little information exists for mountain areas in the permafrost belt worldwide. The Russian Altai Mountains are marginally glaciated and house sporadic and discontinuous permafrost. Due to global warming, temperature and precipitation are changing rapidly in the area, at rates higher than the global average. This result in highly dynamic environmental processes, making the Altai Mountains a potential area to understand the interrelations between geomorphology and permafrost, as influenced by climate change. Due to its marginal nature, permafrost degradation is rapid in the Russian Altai Mountains, and related geomorphological processes (e.g. landslides) are therefore accelerating. Therefore, a geomorphological time-depth analysis will be done focusing on geomorphic permafrost indicators such as rock glaciers, solifluction, permafrost creep, polygon patterned ground, palsas and thermokarst. Mapping the present day situation will be based on fieldwork, existing maps, satellite imagery and ASTER Digital Elevation Models. A specific geomorphological map representing the (peri)glacial geomorphology of the 1960s based on CORONA images will be prepared. In addition, 3D-photomodelling of rock glaciers and solifluction lobes will reveal short-term geomorphic dynamics. To understand the permafrost dynamics (1960s-2100) of the area, a statistical-empirical permafrost model will be used, using topo-climatic factors and temperature data from

  7. Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones.

    PubMed

    Huai, Jianjun

    2016-09-27

    Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an "integrative typology" of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the "5W1H" questions: "Who is concerned about how to adapt to the vulnerability of what to what in some place (where) at some time (when)?" Using the case of the vulnerability of wheat, barley and oats to drought in Australian wheat sheep zones during 1978-1999, I answer the "5W1H" questions through establishing the "six typologies" framework. I then optimize the measurement of vulnerability through contrasting twelve kinds of vulnerability scores with the divergence of crops yields from their regional mean. Through identifying the socioeconomic constraints, I propose seven generic types of crop-drought vulnerability and local adaptive strategy. Our results illustrate that the process of assessing vulnerability and selecting adaptations can be enhanced using a combination of integration, optimization and typology, which emphasize dynamic transitions and transformations between integration and typology.

  8. Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huai, Jianjun

    2016-09-01

    Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an “integrative typology” of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the “5W1H” questions: “Who is concerned about how to adapt to the vulnerability of what to what in some place (where) at some time (when)?” Using the case of the vulnerability of wheat, barley and oats to drought in Australian wheat sheep zones during 1978–1999, I answer the “5W1H” questions through establishing the “six typologies” framework. I then optimize the measurement of vulnerability through contrasting twelve kinds of vulnerability scores with the divergence of crops yields from their regional mean. Through identifying the socioeconomic constraints, I propose seven generic types of crop-drought vulnerability and local adaptive strategy. Our results illustrate that the process of assessing vulnerability and selecting adaptations can be enhanced using a combination of integration, optimization and typology, which emphasize dynamic transitions and transformations between integration and typology.

  9. Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones

    PubMed Central

    Huai, Jianjun

    2016-01-01

    Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an “integrative typology” of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the “5W1H” questions: “Who is concerned about how to adapt to the vulnerability of what to what in some place (where) at some time (when)?” Using the case of the vulnerability of wheat, barley and oats to drought in Australian wheat sheep zones during 1978–1999, I answer the “5W1H” questions through establishing the “six typologies” framework. I then optimize the measurement of vulnerability through contrasting twelve kinds of vulnerability scores with the divergence of crops yields from their regional mean. Through identifying the socioeconomic constraints, I propose seven generic types of crop-drought vulnerability and local adaptive strategy. Our results illustrate that the process of assessing vulnerability and selecting adaptations can be enhanced using a combination of integration, optimization and typology, which emphasize dynamic transitions and transformations between integration and typology. PMID:27670975

  10. Adaptation to climate through flowering phenology: a case study in Medicago truncatula.

    PubMed

    Burgarella, Concetta; Chantret, Nathalie; Gay, Laurène; Prosperi, Jean-Marie; Bonhomme, Maxime; Tiffin, Peter; Young, Nevin D; Ronfort, Joelle

    2016-07-01

    Local climatic conditions likely constitute an important selective pressure on genes underlying important fitness-related traits such as flowering time, and in many species, flowering phenology and climatic gradients strongly covary. To test whether climate shapes the genetic variation on flowering time genes and to identify candidate flowering genes involved in the adaptation to environmental heterogeneity, we used a large Medicago truncatula core collection to examine the association between nucleotide polymorphisms at 224 candidate genes and both climate variables and flowering phenotypes. Unlike genome-wide studies, candidate gene approaches are expected to enrich for the number of meaningful trait associations because they specifically target genes that are known to affect the trait of interest. We found that flowering time mediates adaptation to climatic conditions mainly by variation at genes located upstream in the flowering pathways, close to the environmental stimuli. Variables related to the annual precipitation regime reflected selective constraints on flowering time genes better than the other variables tested (temperature, altitude, latitude or longitude). By comparing phenotype and climate associations, we identified 12 flowering genes as the most promising candidates responsible for phenological adaptation to climate. Four of these genes were located in the known flowering time QTL region on chromosome 7. However, climate and flowering associations also highlighted largely distinct gene sets, suggesting different genetic architectures for adaptation to climate and flowering onset.

  11. Climate change and adaptation of the health sector: The case of infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Confalonieri, Ulisses E C; Menezes, Júlia Alves; Margonari de Souza, Carina

    2015-01-01

    Infectious diseases form a group of health problems highly susceptible to the influences of climate. Adaptation to protect human population health from the changes in infectious disease epidemiology expected to occur as a consequence of climate change involve actions in the health systems as well as in other non-health sectors. In the health sector strategies such as enhanced and targeted epidemiological and entomological surveillance and the development of epidemic early warning systems informed by climate scenarios are needed. Measures in other sectors such as meteorology, civil defense and environmental sanitation will also contribute to a reduction in the risk of infection under climate change.

  12. Modelling the impacts of an invasive species across landscapes: a step-wise approach.

    PubMed

    Ward, Darren; Morgan, Fraser

    2014-01-01

    We estimate the extent of ecological impacts of the invasive Asian paper wasp across different landscapes in New Zealand. We used: (i) a baseline distribution layer (modelled via MaxEnt); (ii) Asian paper wasp nest density (from >460 field plots, related to their preferences for specific land cover categories); and (iii) and their foraging intensity (rates of foraging success, and the time available to forage on a seasonal basis). Using geographic information systems this information is combined and modelled across different landscapes in New Zealand in a step-wise selection process. The highest densities of Asian paper wasps were in herbaceous saline vegetation, followed closely by built-up areas, and then scrub and shrubland. Nest densities of 34 per ha, and occupancy rates of 0.27 were recorded for herbaceous saline vegetation habitats. However, the extent of impacts of the Asian paper wasp remains relatively restricted because of narrow climate tolerances and spatial restriction of preferred habitats. A step-wise process based on geographic information systems and species distribution models, in combination with factors such as distribution, density, and predation, create a useful tool that allows the extent of impacts of invasive species to be assessed across large spatial scales. These models will be useful for conservation managers as they provide easy visual interpretation of results, and can help prioritise where direct conservation action or control of the invader are required.

  13. Modelling the impacts of an invasive species across landscapes: a step-wise approach

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, Fraser

    2014-01-01

    We estimate the extent of ecological impacts of the invasive Asian paper wasp across different landscapes in New Zealand. We used: (i) a baseline distribution layer (modelled via MaxEnt); (ii) Asian paper wasp nest density (from >460 field plots, related to their preferences for specific land cover categories); and (iii) and their foraging intensity (rates of foraging success, and the time available to forage on a seasonal basis). Using geographic information systems this information is combined and modelled across different landscapes in New Zealand in a step-wise selection process. The highest densities of Asian paper wasps were in herbaceous saline vegetation, followed closely by built-up areas, and then scrub and shrubland. Nest densities of 34 per ha, and occupancy rates of 0.27 were recorded for herbaceous saline vegetation habitats. However, the extent of impacts of the Asian paper wasp remains relatively restricted because of narrow climate tolerances and spatial restriction of preferred habitats. A step-wise process based on geographic information systems and species distribution models, in combination with factors such as distribution, density, and predation, create a useful tool that allows the extent of impacts of invasive species to be assessed across large spatial scales. These models will be useful for conservation managers as they provide easy visual interpretation of results, and can help prioritise where direct conservation action or control of the invader are required. PMID:24949248

  14. Discovering Pair-wise Synergies in Microarray Data

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Yuan; Cao, Dan; Gao, Jun; Yuan, Zheming

    2016-01-01

    Informative gene selection can have important implications for the improvement of cancer diagnosis and the identification of new drug targets. Individual-gene-ranking methods ignore interactions between genes. Furthermore, popular pair-wise gene evaluation methods, e.g. TSP and TSG, are helpless for discovering pair-wise interactions. Several efforts to discover pair-wise synergy have been made based on the information approach, such as EMBP and FeatKNN. However, the methods which are employed to estimate mutual information, e.g. binarization, histogram-based and KNN estimators, depend on known data or domain characteristics. Recently, Reshef et al. proposed a novel maximal information coefficient (MIC) measure to capture a wide range of associations between two variables that has the property of generality. An extension from MIC(X; Y) to MIC(X1; X2; Y) is therefore desired. We developed an approximation algorithm for estimating MIC(X1; X2; Y) where Y is a discrete variable. MIC(X1; X2; Y) is employed to detect pair-wise synergy in simulation and cancer microarray data. The results indicate that MIC(X1; X2; Y) also has the property of generality. It can discover synergic genes that are undetectable by reference feature selection methods such as MIC(X; Y) and TSG. Synergic genes can distinguish different phenotypes. Finally, the biological relevance of these synergic genes is validated with GO annotation and OUgene database. PMID:27470995

  15. Dusty WDs in the WISE all sky survey ∩ SDSS

    SciTech Connect

    Barber, Sara D.; Kilic, Mukremin; Gianninas, A.; Brown, Warren R.

    2014-05-10

    A recent cross-correlation between the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 7 White Dwarf Catalog with the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) all-sky photometry at 3.4, 4.6, 12, and 22 μm performed by Debes et al. resulted in the discovery of 52 candidate dusty white dwarfs (WDs). However, the 6'' WISE beam allows for the possibility that many of the excesses exhibited by these WDs may be due to contamination from a nearby source. We present MMT+SAO Wide-Field InfraRed Camera J- and H-band imaging observations (0.''5-1.''5 point spread function) of 16 of these candidate dusty WDs and confirm that four have spectral energy distributions (SEDs) consistent with a dusty disk and are not accompanied by a nearby source contaminant. The remaining 12 WDs have contaminated WISE photometry and SEDs inconsistent with a dusty disk when the contaminating sources are not included in the photometry measurements. We find the frequency of disks around single WDs in the WISE ∩ SDSS sample to be 2.6%-4.1%. One of the four new dusty WDs has a mass of 1.04 M {sub ☉} (progenitor mass 5.4 M {sub ☉}) and its discovery offers the first confirmation that massive WDs (and their massive progenitor stars) host planetary systems.

  16. Localized Multiple Kernel Learning Via Sample-Wise Alternating Optimization.

    PubMed

    Han, Yina; Yang, Kunde; Ma, Yuanliang; Liu, Guizhong

    2014-01-01

    Our objective is to train support vector machines (SVM)-based localized multiple kernel learning (LMKL), using the alternating optimization between the standard SVM solvers with the local combination of base kernels and the sample-specific kernel weights. The advantage of alternating optimization developed from the state-of-the-art MKL is the SVM-tied overall complexity and the simultaneous optimization on both the kernel weights and the classifier. Unfortunately, in LMKL, the sample-specific character makes the updating of kernel weights a difficult quadratic nonconvex problem. In this paper, starting from a new primal-dual equivalence, the canonical objective on which state-of-the-art methods are based is first decomposed into an ensemble of objectives corresponding to each sample, namely, sample-wise objectives. Then, the associated sample-wise alternating optimization method is conducted, in which the localized kernel weights can be independently obtained by solving their exclusive sample-wise objectives, either linear programming (for l1-norm) or with closed-form solutions (for lp-norm). At test time, the learnt kernel weights for the training data are deployed based on the nearest-neighbor rule. Hence, to guarantee their generality among the test part, we introduce the neighborhood information and incorporate it into the empirical loss when deriving the sample-wise objectives. Extensive experiments on four benchmark machine learning datasets and two real-world computer vision datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

  17. A new Y dwarf search probing the limits of WISE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leggett, Sandy; Pinfield, David; Ruiz, Maria Teresa; Marley, Mark; Saumon, Didier; Faherty, Jackie; Smart, Ricky; Gomes, Joana; Day-Jones, Avril

    2013-08-01

    We propose to use FLAMINGOS-2, GNIRS and NIRI to follow-up candidate Y dwarfs from a new search of the WISE catalog. Our method uses WISE multiple measurements and photometric profile fit information to identify non-variable point sources which are detected only in the W2-band, the band most sensitive to very cool brown dwarfs. This search identifies 121 previously unknown candidates down to a S/N=8 limit and probes the lowest Teff that WISE is sensitive to. Initial near-IR followup produced photometry for 13 sources, of which 9 are T8 and earlier T types, three are new 500K T9 dwarfs and one is a new 400K Y0 dwarf. When followup is complete we should approximately double the known number of WISE brown dwarfs cooler than 500K. In 13B we request time to obtain J-band photometry for 85 sources, which make up 75% of our remaining unmatched sample. We expect to find 8 new Y dwarfs, for which we will also obtain H-band photometry. For the brightest new Y dwarfs we will obtain spectra. We expect there will be up to three more semesters where we request time for this project, to image and followup the remaining 25% of our sample, and confirm and characterize new Y dwarfs.

  18. Australian Waste Wise Schools Program: Its Past, Present, and Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cutter-Mackenzie, Amy

    2010-01-01

    The Waste Wise Schools program has a longstanding history in Australia. It is an action-based program that encourages schools to move toward zero waste through their curriculum and operating practices. This article provides a review of the program, finding that it has had notable success in reducing schools' waste through a "reduce, reuse,…

  19. Teaching Statistics with Web Technology: The WISE Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aberson, Christopher L.; Berger, Dale E.; Healy, Michael R.; Romero, Victoria L.

    2001-01-01

    Describes the WISE (Web Interface for Statistics Education) that was developed to enhance student learning and understanding of core statistical concepts relevant in higher education. Discusses the use of Web technology; the impact on teaching; barriers to computer-based learning; and impact on student learning. (LRW)

  20. Street Wise Part 2: Educating Children for Safe Bicycling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crider, Linda B.; Hall, Amanda K.

    2006-01-01

    This part of the "Street Wise" series incorporates essential bicycle safety skills into a one week bike unit, designed for 3rd through 6th graders. These skills require much repetition and practice but can help children develop safe traffic behaviors that save lives, such as stopping, scanning, signaling, street crossing, and avoiding…

  1. Using SDSS and WISE to Catch Quenching Galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alatalo, Katherine A.; Cales, Sabrina; Spogs Team

    2015-01-01

    The onset of large surveys, such as the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, or the WISE All-sky Survey have opened an unprecedented view of the nature of galaxy transitions from the blue cloud to the red sequence, allowing for synergies between these instruments and surveys to emerge. I will present the discovery of the WISE Infrared Transition Zone, a prominent bifurcation in WISE [4.6]-[12] micron colors between early-type and late-type galaxies. This Infrared Transition Zone (IRTZ) is far more prominent than the optical green valley, and seems to represent a different phase in evolution, corresponding to the time when the optical colors have mostly made the transition. I will discuss possible causes for this bifurcation, including the complete exhaustion of the interstellar medium and the presence of active galactic nuclei. This new population of transitioning galaxies, identified by WISE might shed light on later stages in galaxy transition, after the optical colors no longer provide a beacon for these transitioning galaxies, either at late stages of a merger, or through the complete strangulation of the available interstellar medium.

  2. DairyWise, a whole-farm dairy model.

    PubMed

    Schils, R L M; de Haan, M H A; Hemmer, J G A; van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A; de Boer, J A; Evers, A G; Holshof, G; van Middelkoop, J C; Zom, R L G

    2007-11-01

    A whole-farm dairy model was developed and evaluated. The DairyWise model is an empirical model that simulated technical, environmental, and financial processes on a dairy farm. The central component is the FeedSupply model that balanced the herd requirements, as generated by the DairyHerd model, and the supply of homegrown feeds, as generated by the crop models for grassland and corn silage. The output of the FeedSupply model was used as input for several technical, environmental, and economic submodels. The submodels simulated a range of farm aspects such as nitrogen and phosphorus cycling, nitrate leaching, ammonia emissions, greenhouse gas emissions, energy use, and a financial farm budget. The final output was a farm plan describing all material and nutrient flows and the consequences on the environment and economy. Evaluation of DairyWise was performed with 2 data sets consisting of 29 dairy farms. The evaluation showed that DairyWise was able to simulate gross margin, concentrate intake, nitrogen surplus, nitrate concentration in ground water, and crop yields. The variance accounted for ranged from 37 to 84%, and the mean differences between modeled and observed values varied between -5 to +3% per set of farms. We conclude that DairyWise is a powerful tool for integrated scenario development and evaluation for scientists, policy makers, extension workers, teachers and farmers.

  3. Climate change adaptation under uncertainty in the developing world: A case study of sea level rise in Kiribati

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, S. D.; Webber, S.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact in parts of the developing world. At the 2010 meeting of U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in Cancun, industrialized countries agreed in principle to provide US$100 billion per year by 2020 to assist the developing world respond to climate change. This "Green Climate Fund" is a critical step towards addressing the challenge of climate change. However, the policy and discourse on supporting adaptation in the developing world remains highly idealized. For example, the efficacy of "no regrets" adaptation efforts or "mainstreaming" adaptation into decision-making are rarely evaluated in the real world. In this presentation, I will discuss the gap between adaptation theory and practice using a multi-year case study of the cultural, social and scientific obstacles to adapting to sea level rise in the Pacific atoll nation of Kiribati. Our field research reveals how scientific and institutional uncertainty can limit international efforts to fund adaptation and lead to spiraling costs. Scientific uncertainty about hyper-local impacts of sea level rise, though irreducible, can at times limit decision-making about adaptation measures, contrary to the notion that "good" decision-making practices can incorporate scientific uncertainty. Efforts to improve institutional capacity must be done carefully, or they risk inadvertently slowing the implementation of adaptation measures and increasing the likelihood of "mal"-adaptation.

  4. Climate change threats to family farmers' sense of place and mental wellbeing: A case study from the Western Australian Wheatbelt.

    PubMed

    Ellis, Neville R; Albrecht, Glenn A

    2017-02-01

    'Sense of place' has become a central concept in the analysis of the cultural, personal and mental health risks posed by a changing climate. However, such place-related understandings of mental health and wellbeing remain largely limited to Indigenous health contexts. In this article we argue the relevance of sense of place in understanding the mental health impacts of climate change on family farmers who retain close living and working relationships to the land. We conducted a community-based qualitative case study located in the Western Australian Wheatbelt - a region that has experienced some of the most significant climate change in Australia. A three-part interview series was conducted with 22 family farmers between February 2013 and April 2014, and 15 interviews with various agricultural and mental health key informants. The research findings reveal that recently observed patterns of climate change have exacerbated farmers' worries about the weather, undermined notions of self-identity, and contributed to cumulative and chronic forms of place-based distress, culminating in heightened perceived risk of depression and suicide. The research findings highlight the tightly coupled ecosystem health-human health relationships that exist for family farmers living in regions affected by climate change, as well as the significance of farmers' place-based attachments and identities for their mental health and wellbeing.

  5. A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science.

    PubMed

    Faghmous, James H; Kumar, Vipin

    2014-09-01

    Global climate change and its impact on human life has become one of our era's greatest challenges. Despite the urgency, data science has had little impact on furthering our understanding of our planet in spite of the abundance of climate data. This is a stark contrast from other fields such as advertising or electronic commerce where big data has been a great success story. This discrepancy stems from the complex nature of climate data as well as the scientific questions climate science brings forth. This article introduces a data science audience to the challenges and opportunities to mine large climate datasets, with an emphasis on the nuanced difference between mining climate data and traditional big data approaches. We focus on data, methods, and application challenges that must be addressed in order for big data to fulfill their promise with regard to climate science applications. More importantly, we highlight research showing that solely relying on traditional big data techniques results in dubious findings, and we instead propose a theory-guided data science paradigm that uses scientific theory to constrain both the big data techniques as well as the results-interpretation process to extract accurate insight from large climate data.

  6. A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Vipin

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Global climate change and its impact on human life has become one of our era's greatest challenges. Despite the urgency, data science has had little impact on furthering our understanding of our planet in spite of the abundance of climate data. This is a stark contrast from other fields such as advertising or electronic commerce where big data has been a great success story. This discrepancy stems from the complex nature of climate data as well as the scientific questions climate science brings forth. This article introduces a data science audience to the challenges and opportunities to mine large climate datasets, with an emphasis on the nuanced difference between mining climate data and traditional big data approaches. We focus on data, methods, and application challenges that must be addressed in order for big data to fulfill their promise with regard to climate science applications. More importantly, we highlight research showing that solely relying on traditional big data techniques results in dubious findings, and we instead propose a theory-guided data science paradigm that uses scientific theory to constrain both the big data techniques as well as the results-interpretation process to extract accurate insight from large climate data. PMID:25276499

  7. Modelling Impacts of Climate Change: Case Studies using the New Generation of Erosion Models

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change is expected to impact upon a number of soil erosion drivers and processes, which should be taken into account when designing a modelling strategy. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) (Parry et al., 2007; Solomon et al., 2007) reviews a...

  8. The First Hyper-Luminous Infrared Galaxy Discovered by WISE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eisenhardt, Peter R.; Wu, Jingwen; Tsai, Chao-Wei; Assef, Roberto; Benford, Dominic; Blain, Andrew; Bridge, Carrie; Condon, J. J.; Cushing, Michael C.; Cutri, Roc; Evans, Neal J., III; Gelino, Chris; Griffith, Roger L.; Grillmair, Carl J.; Jarrett, Tom; Lonsdale, Carol J.; Masci, Frank J.; Mason, Brian S.; Petty, Sara; Sayers, Jack; Stanford, S. Adam; Stern, Daniel; Wright, Edward L.; Yan, Lin

    2012-01-01

    We report the discovery by the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer of the z = 2.452 source WISEJ181417.29+341224.9, the first hyperluminous source found in the WISE survey. WISE 1814+3412 is also the prototype for an all-sky sample of approximately 1000 extremely luminous "W1W2-dropouts" (sources faint or undetected by WISE at 3.4 and 4.6 micrometers and well detected at 12 or 22 micrometers). The WISE data and a 350 micrometers detection give a minimum bolometric luminosity of 3.7 x 10(exp 13) solar luminosity, with approximately 10(exp 14) solar luminosity plausible. Followup images reveal four nearby sources: a QSO and two Lyman Break Galaxies (LBGs) at z = 2.45, and an M dwarf star. The brighter LBG dominates the bolometric emission. Gravitational lensing is unlikely given the source locations and their different spectra and colors. The dominant LBG spectrum indicates a star formation rate approximately 300 solar mass yr(exp -1), accounting for less than or equal to 10 percent of the bolometric luminosity. Strong 22 micrometer emission relative to 350 micrometer implies that warm dust contributes significantly to the luminosity, while cooler dust normally associated with starbursts is constrained by an upper limit at 1.1 mm. Radio emission is approximately 10? above the far-infrared/radio correlation, indicating an active galactic nucleus is present. An obscured AGN combined with starburst and evolved stellar components can account for the observations. If the black hole mass follows the local MBH-bulge mass relation, the implied Eddington ratio is approximately greater than 4. WISE 1814+3412 may be a heavily obscured object where the peak AGN activity occurred prior to the peak era of star formation.

  9. Infrared Astronomy Professional Development for K-12 Educators: WISE Telescope

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borders, Kareen; Mendez, B. M.

    2010-01-01

    K-12 educators need effective and relevant astronomy professional development. WISE Telescope (Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer) and Spitzer Space Telescope Education programs provided an immersive teacher professional development workshop at Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico during the summer of 2009. As many common misconceptions involve scale and distance, teachers worked with Moon/Earth scale, solar system scale, and distance of objects in the universe. Teachers built and used basic telescopes, learned about the history of telescopes, explored ground and satellite based telescopes, and explored and worked on models of WISE Telescope. An in-depth explanation of WISE and Spitzer telescopes gave participants background knowledge for infrared astronomy observations. We taught the electromagnetic spectrum through interactive stations. The stations included an overview via lecture and power point, the use of ultraviolet beads to determine ultraviolet exposure, the study of WISE lenticulars and diagramming of infrared data, listening to light by using speakers hooked up to photoreceptor cells, looking at visible light through diffraction glasses and diagramming the data, protocols for using astronomy based research in the classroom, and infrared thermometers to compare environmental conditions around the observatory. An overview of LIDAR physics was followed up by a simulated LIDAR mapping of the topography of Mars. We will outline specific steps for K-12 infrared astronomy professional development, provide data demonstrating the impact of the above professional development on educator understanding and classroom use, and detail future plans for additional K-12 professional development. Funding was provided by WISE Telescope, Spitzer Space Telescope, Starbucks, Arecibo Observatory, the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, and the Washington Space Grant Consortium.

  10. Evolution of group-wise cooperation: Is direct reciprocity insufficient?

    PubMed

    Kurokawa, Shun; Ihara, Yasuo

    2017-02-21

    Group-wise cooperation, or cooperation among three or more individuals, is an integral part of human societies. It is likely that group-wise cooperation also played a crucial role in the survival of early hominins, who were confronted with novel environmental challenges, long before the emergence of Homo sapiens. However, previous theoretical and empirical studies, focusing mainly on modern humans, have tended to suggest that evolution of cooperation in sizable groups cannot be explained by simple direct reciprocity and requires some additional mechanisms (reputation, punishment, etc.), which are cognitively too demanding for early hominins. As a partial resolution of the paradox, our recent analysis of a stochastic evolutionary model, which considers the effect of random drift, has revealed that evolution of group-wise cooperation is more likely to occur in larger groups when an individual's share of the benefit produced by one cooperator does not decrease with increasing group size (i.e., goods are non-rivalrous). In this paper, we further extend our previous analysis to explore possible consequences of introducing rare mistakes in behavior or imperfect information about behavior of others on the model outcome. Analyses of the extended models show that evolution of group-wise cooperation can be facilitated by large group size even when individuals intending to cooperate sometimes fail to do so or when all the information about the past behavior of group members is not available. We argue, therefore, that evolution of cooperation in sizable groups does not necessarily require other mechanisms than direct reciprocity if the goods to be produced via group-wise cooperation are non-rivalrous.

  11. New Exozodi and Asteroid Belt Analogs using WISE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patel, Rahul; Metchev, Stanimir; Heinze, Aren

    2015-01-01

    The presence of circumstellar dust in the terrestrial planet zone and asteroid belt regions of stars can be ascertained from the excess flux from main sequence stars in the mid-infrared wavelengths. Finding dust in these regions is significant as it traces material related to terrestrial planet formation. The WISE All-Sky survey presents an opportunity to extend the population of faint disks to flux levels 100x fainter than disks detected by IRAS.We use the WISE All-Sky Survey data to detect circumstellar debris disks at the 12 and 22 μm bandpasses (W3 and W4, respectively). We present the detection of a sample of over 214 exozodi and asteroid belt analog candidates, 45% of which are brand new detections at confidence levels >99.5%. This was done by cross-matching Hipparcos main-sequence stars with the WISE All-Sky Data Release for stars within 75 pc and outside the galactic plane (|b|>5 deg) and then seeking color excesses at W3 and W4. In addition to applying the standard WISE photometric flags and filters to remove contaminants from our sample, we also improved our selection techniques by correcting for previously unknown systematic behavior in the WISE photometry, thereby including bright saturated stars into our sample. Our debris disk candidates are reliable detections as well as unprecedentedly faint, due in large part to these improved selection techniques. These new nearby excess hosts are optimal targets for direct imaging campaigns to characterize the disk morphology and to provide a larger sample of well characterized disks with which to understand the overall exoplanetary system architecture.

  12. How do the media affect public perception of climate change and geohazards? An Italian case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasquaré, Federico A.; Oppizzi, Paolo

    2012-06-01

    This paper uses a combination of a qualitative approach and a quantitative, software-based approach to explore the Italian print media construction of climate change and geohazards between 2007 and 2010. We have broken down our analysis in two sections: the first one deals with the coverage of climate change; the second one focuses on the media representation of hydrogeological hazards and extreme events in Italy. Our software-based, qualitative and quantitative analysis of 1253 storylines from two major Italian broadsheets (the La Repubblica and the Corriere della Sera) has enabled us to assess the presence of typical journalistic frames such as conflict and dramatization, as well as newly-introduced ones such as "prevention vs damages", and "weather vs climate". Our results show that the two newspapers appear to have different "agendas" that might have different impacts on their own readerships: the La Repubblica has been on the forefront of forging a broad public consensus on the need for actions aimed at tackling climate change, whereas the Corriere della Sera has gradually built a journalistic agenda aimed at minimizing the urgency of the climate change problem. As regards the media's representation of hydrogeological hazards, we have confirmed what assessed by previous research, i.e. that Italian journalists still prefer to focus on damages rather than prevention; on a better note, the tendency of the Italian press to confuse weather with climate, blaming climate change for extreme rainfalls causing landslides and floods, has decreased in the last four years.

  13. Farm Level Adaptation to Climate Change: The Case of Farmer's in the Ethiopian Highlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2013-07-01

    In Ethiopia, climate change and associated risks are expected to have serious consequences for agriculture and food security. This in turn will seriously impact on the welfare of the people, particularly the rural farmers whose main livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture. The level of impacts will mainly depend on the awareness and the level of adaptation in response to the changing climate. It is thus important to understand the role of the different factors that influence farmers' adaptation to ensure the development of appropriate policy measures and the design of successful development projects. This study examines farmers' perception of change in climatic attributes and the factors that influence farmers' choice of adaptation measures to climate change and variability. The estimated results from the climate change adaptation models indicate that level of education, age and wealth of the head of the household; access to credit and agricultural services; information on climate, and temperature all influence farmers' choices of adaptation. Moreover, lack of information on adaptation measures and lack of finance are seen as the main factors inhibiting adaptation to climate change. These conclusions were obtained with a Multinomial logit model, employing the results from a survey of 400 smallholder farmers in three districts in Tigray, northern Ethiopian.

  14. Climate change impacts on mass movements--case studies from the European Alps.

    PubMed

    Stoffel, M; Tiranti, D; Huggel, C

    2014-09-15

    This paper addresses the current knowledge on climate change impacts on mass movement activity in mountain environments by illustrating characteristic cases of debris flows, rock slope failures and landslides from the French, Italian, and Swiss Alps. It is expected that events are likely to occur less frequently during summer, whereas the anticipated increase of rainfall in spring and fall could likely alter debris-flow activity during the shoulder seasons (March, April, November, and December). The magnitude of debris flows could become larger due to larger amounts of sediment delivered to the channels and as a result of the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events. At the same time, however, debris-flow volumes in high-mountain areas will depend chiefly on the stability and/or movement rates of permafrost bodies, and destabilized rock glaciers could lead to debris flows without historic precedents in the future. The frequency of rock slope failures is likely to increase, as excessively warm air temperatures, glacier shrinkage, as well as permafrost warming and thawing will affect and reduce rock slope stability in the direction that adversely affects rock slope stability. Changes in landslide activity in the French and Western Italian Alps will likely depend on differences in elevation. Above 1500 m asl, the projected decrease in snow season duration in future winters and springs will likely affect the frequency, number and seasonality of landslide reactivations. In Piemonte, for instance, 21st century landslides have been demonstrated to occur more frequently in early spring and to be triggered by moderate rainfalls, but also to occur in smaller numbers. On the contrary, and in line with recent observations, events in autumn, characterized by a large spatial density of landslide occurrences might become more scarce in the Piemonte region.

  15. Odebrecht USA, in Coral Gables, Fla. Among 14 WasteWise Participants Recognized for Reducing Waste

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    ATLANTA - Today, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recognized Odebrecht USA , in Coral Gables, Fla. as the WaterWise Small Business Partner of the Year. Nationally, 14 WasteWise participants, that include research institutes, re

  16. Integrating science, economics and law into policy: The case of carbon sequestration in climate change policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richards, Kenneth

    Carbon sequestration, the extraction and storage of carbon from the atmosphere by biomass, could potentially provide a cost-effective means to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. The claims on behalf of carbon sequestration may be inadvertently overstated, however. Several key observations emerge from this study. First, although carbon sequestration studies all report results in terms of dollars per ton, the definition of that term varies significantly, meaning that the results of various analyses can not be meaningfully compared. Second, when carbon sequestration is included in an energy-economy model of climate change policy, it appears that carbon sequestration could play a major, if not dominant role in a national carbon emission abatement program, reducing costs of emissions stabilization by as much as 80 percent, saving tens of billions of dollars per year. However, the results are very dependant upon landowners' perceived risk. Studies may also have overstated the potential for carbon sequestration because they have not considered the implementation process. This study demonstrates that three factors will reduce the cost-effectiveness of carbon sequestration. First, the implementation costs associated with measurement and governance of the government-private sector relation are higher than in the case of carbon source control. Second, legal constraints limit the range of instruments that the government can use to induce private landowners to expand their carbon sinks. The government will likely have to pay private parties to expand their sinks, or undertake direct government production. In either case, additional revenues will be required, introducing social costs associated with excess burden. Third, because of the very long time involved in developing carbon sinks (up to several decades) the government may not be able to make credible commitments against exactions of one type or another that would effectively reduce the value of private sector investments

  17. Problems, Prescriptions and Potential in Actionable Climate Change Science - A Case Study from California Coastal Marsh Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacDonald, G. M.; Ambrose, R. F.; Thorne, K.; Takekawa, J.; Brown, L. N.; Fejtek, S.; Gold, M.; Rosencranz, J.

    2015-12-01

    Frustrations regarding the provision of actionable science extend to both producers and consumers. Scientists decry the lack of application of their research in shaping policy and practices while decision makers bemoan the lack of applicability of scientific research to the specific problems at hand or its narrow focus relative to the plethora of engineering, economic and social considerations that they must also consider. Incorporating climate change adds additional complexity due to uncertainties in estimating many facets of future climate, the inherent variability of climate and the decadal scales over which significant changes will develop. Recently a set of guidelines for successful science-policy interaction was derived from the analysis of transboundary water management. These are; 1 recognizing that science is a crucial but bounded input into the decision-making processes, 2 early establishment of conditions for collaboration and shared commitment among participants, 3 understanding that science-policy interactions are enhanced through greater collaboration and social or group-learning processes, 4 accepting that the collaborative production of knowledge is essential to build legitimate decision-making processes, and 5 engaging boundary organizations and informal networks as well as formal stakeholders. Here we present as a case study research on California coastal marshes, climate change and sea-level that is being conducted by university and USGS scientists under the auspices of the Southwest Climate Science Center. We also present research needs identified by a seperate analysis of best practices for coastal marsh restoration in the face of climate change that was conducted in extensive consultation with planners and managers. The initial communication, scientific research and outreach-dissemination of the marsh scientfic study are outlined and compared to best practices needs identified by planners and the science-policy guidelines outlined above

  18. Climate change impacts on marine water quality: The case study of the Northern Adriatic sea.

    PubMed

    Rizzi, J; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Zabeo, A; Brigolin, D; Carniel, S; Pastres, R; Marcomini, A

    2016-01-30

    Climate change is posing additional pressures on coastal ecosystems due to variations in water biogeochemical and physico-chemical parameters (e.g., pH, salinity) leading to aquatic ecosystem degradation. With the main aim of analyzing the potential impacts of climate change on marine water quality, a Regional Risk Assessment methodology was developed and applied to coastal marine waters of the North Adriatic. It integrates the outputs of regional biogeochemical and physico-chemical models considering future climate change scenarios (i.e., years 2070 and 2100) with site-specific environmental and socio-economic indicators. Results showed that salinity and temperature will be the main drivers of changes, together with macronutrients, especially in the area of the Po' river delta. The final outputs are exposure, susceptibility and risk maps supporting the communication of the potential consequences of climate change on water quality to decision makers and stakeholders and provide a basis for the definition of adaptation and management strategies.

  19. Integrated ocean management as a strategy to meet rapid climate change: the Norwegian case.

    PubMed

    Hoel, Alf Håkon; Olsen, Erik

    2012-02-01

    The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addresses the Norwegian experience in introducing integrated, ecosystem-based oceans management, emphasizing how climate change, seen as a major long-term driver of change in ecosystems, is addressed in management plans. Understanding the direct effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and indirect effects on human activities is essential for adaptive planning to be useful in the long-term management of the marine environment.

  20. Role of Organizational Climate in Organizational Commitment: The Case of Teaching Hospitals

    PubMed Central

    Bahrami, Mohammad Amin; Barati, Omid; Ghoroghchian, Malake-sadat; Montazer-alfaraj, Razieh; Ranjbar Ezzatabadi, Mohammad

    2015-01-01

    Objective The commitment of employees is affected by several factors, including factors related to the organizational climate. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between organizational commitment of nurses and the organizational climate in hospital settings. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted in 2014 at two teaching hospitals in Yazd, Iran. A total of 90 nurses in these hospitals participated. We used stratified random sampling of the nursing population. The required data were gathered using two valid questionnaires: Allen and Meyer's organizational commitment standard questionnaire and Halpin and Croft's Organizational Climate Description Questionnaire. Data analysis was done through SPSS 20 statistical software (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA). We used descriptive statistics and Pearson's correlation coefficient for the data analysis. Results The findings indicated a positive and significant correlation between organizational commitment and organizational climate (r = 0.269, p = 0.01). There is also a significant positive relationship between avoidance of organizational climate and affective commitment (r = 0.208, p = 0.049) and between focus on production and normative and continuance commitment (r = 0.308, p = 0.003). Conclusion Improving the organizational climate could be a valuable strategy for improving organizational commitment. PMID:27169007

  1. Tolerance to multiple climate stressors: a case study of Douglas-fir drought and cold hardiness.

    PubMed

    Bansal, Sheel; Harrington, Constance A; St Clair, John Bradley

    2016-04-01

    Drought and freeze events are two of the most common forms of climate extremes which result in tree damage or death, and the frequency and intensity of both stressors may increase with climate change. Few studies have examined natural covariation in stress tolerance traits to cope with multiple stressors among wild plant populations.We assessed the capacity of coastal Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii), an ecologically and economically important species in the northwestern USA, to tolerate both drought and cold stress on 35 populations grown in common gardens. We used principal components analysis to combine drought and cold hardiness trait data into generalized stress hardiness traits to model geographic variation in hardiness as a function of climate across the Douglas-fir range.Drought and cold hardiness converged among populations along winter temperature gradients and diverged along summer precipitation gradients. Populations originating in regions with cold winters had relatively high tolerance to both drought and cold stress, which is likely due to overlapping adaptations for coping with winter desiccation. Populations from regions with dry summers had increased drought hardiness but reduced cold hardiness, suggesting a trade-off in tolerance mechanisms.Our findings highlight the necessity to look beyond bivariate trait-climate relationships and instead consider multiple traits and climate variables to effectively model and manage for the impacts of climate change on widespread species.

  2. Tolerance to multiple climate stressors: A case study of Douglas-fir drought and cold hardiness

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bansal, Sheel; Harrington, Constance A; St. Clair, John Bradley

    2016-01-01

    Summary: 1. Drought and freeze events are two of the most common forms of climate extremes which result in tree damage or death, and the frequency and intensity of both stressors may increase with climate change. Few studies have examined natural covariation in stress tolerance traits to cope with multiple stressors among wild plant populations. 2. We assessed the capacity of coastal Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii), an ecologically and economically important species in the northwestern USA, to tolerate both drought and cold stress on 35 populations grown in common gardens. We used principal components analysis to combine drought and cold hardiness trait data into generalized stress hardiness traits to model geographic variation in hardiness as a function of climate across the Douglas-fir range. 3. Drought and cold hardiness converged among populations along winter temperature gradients and diverged along summer precipitation gradients. Populations originating in regions with cold winters had relatively high tolerance to both drought and cold stress, which is likely due to overlapping adaptations for coping with winter desiccation. Populations from regions with dry summers had increased drought hardiness but reduced cold hardiness, suggesting a trade-off in tolerance mechanisms. 4. Our findings highlight the necessity to look beyond bivariate trait–climate relationships and instead consider multiple traits and climate variables to effectively model and manage for the impacts of climate change on widespread species.

  3. Social vulnerability and climate variability in southern Brazil: a TerraPop case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adamo, S. B.; Fitch, C. A.; Kugler, T.; Doxsey-Whitfield, E.

    2014-12-01

    Climate variability is an inherent characteristic of the Earth's climate, including but not limited to climate change. It affects and impacts human society in different ways, depending on the underlying socioeconomic vulnerability of specific places, social groups, households and individuals. This differential vulnerability presents spatial and temporal variations, and is rooted in historical patterns of development and relations between human and ecological systems. This study aims to assess the impact of climate variability on livelihoods and well-being, as well as their changes over time and across space, and for rural and urban populations. The geographic focus is Southern Brazil-the states of Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul-- and the objectives include (a) to identify and map critical areas or hotspots of exposure to climate variability (temperature and precipitation), and (b) to identify internal variation or differential vulnerability within these areas and its evolution over time (1980-2010), using newly available integrated data from the Terra Populus project. These data include geo-referenced climate and agricultural data, and data describing demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of individuals, households and places.

  4. Selecting Populations for Non-Analogous Climate Conditions Using Universal Response Functions: The Case of Douglas-Fir in Central Europe.

    PubMed

    Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio

    2015-01-01

    Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before

  5. Fluid simulations with atomistic resolution: a hybrid multiscale method with field-wise coupling

    SciTech Connect

    Borg, Matthew K.; Lockerby, Duncan A.; Reese, Jason M.

    2013-12-15

    We present a new hybrid method for simulating dense fluid systems that exhibit multiscale behaviour, in particular, systems in which a Navier–Stokes model may not be valid in parts of the computational domain. We apply molecular dynamics as a local microscopic refinement for correcting the Navier–Stokes constitutive approximation in the bulk of the domain, as well as providing a direct measurement of velocity slip at bounding surfaces. Our hybrid approach differs from existing techniques, such as the heterogeneous multiscale method (HMM), in some fundamental respects. In our method, the individual molecular solvers, which provide information to the macro model, are not coupled with the continuum grid at nodes (i.e. point-wise coupling), instead coupling occurs over distributed heterogeneous fields (here referred to as field-wise coupling). This affords two major advantages. Whereas point-wise coupled HMM is limited to regions of flow that are highly scale-separated in all spatial directions (i.e. where the state of non-equilibrium in the fluid can be adequately described by a single strain tensor and temperature gradient vector), our field-wise coupled HMM has no such limitations and so can be applied to flows with arbitrarily-varying degrees of scale separation (e.g. flow from a large reservoir into a nano-channel). The second major advantage is that the position of molecular elements does not need to be collocated with nodes of the continuum grid, which means that the resolution of the microscopic correction can be adjusted independently of the resolution of the continuum model. This in turn means the computational cost and accuracy of the molecular correction can be independently controlled and optimised. The macroscopic constraints on the individual molecular solvers are artificial body-force distributions, used in conjunction with standard periodicity. We test our hybrid method on the Poiseuille flow problem for both Newtonian (Lennard-Jones) and non

  6. Search Engine Designer for Tomorrow: Interview with TextWise's Elizabeth Liddy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quint, Barbara

    1998-01-01

    Presents an interview with Elizabeth Liddy, president of TextWise, an information access and analytics company. Background on TextWise is provided; advanced search engines are discussed; TextWise products and projects are described; and the changing role of information professionals is considered. (MES)

  7. Regional and Household Adaptation Strategies to Climate Extremes: the Case Study of the Beava River Basin, the Czech Republic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duží, Barbora; Stojanov, Robert; Vikhrov, Dmytro

    2013-04-01

    We investigate regional and household adaptation strategies in the region affected by climate extremes, focusing on floods occurrence during past 15 years period. The main research question is: What is the overall state of adaptation measurements to climate extremes on the Bečva river basin? Target area is located along upper and middle part of the Bečva river basin in the east of the Czech Republic. The main theoretical concepts draw from differentiations between coping/adaptation strategies to climate extremes and theory of focusing event as a starter of changes in attention and agenda of problem solution. We apply mixed empirical research and case study approach. First we use qualitative research to serve as an initial entrance to the issue, to find out the perception of adaptation progress and preparedness to climate extremes on regional level. We conducted deep interviews (N=20) with relevant stakeholders. We proceed with quantitative research through the conducting face-to face questionnaires with household residents (N=305) in no, low and no risk area in relation to flood occurrence. We designed set of questions to find out relation among experiences with flood, the level of damages and applied emergency and adaptation measurements.

  8. Climate change vulnerability assessments as catalysts for social learning: four case studies in south-eastern Australia

    SciTech Connect

    Preston, Benjamin L

    2012-01-01

    Technical assessments of vulnerability and/or risk are increasingly being undertaken to assess the impacts of climate change. Underlying this is the belief that they will bring clarity to questions regarding the scale of institutional investments required, plausible adaptation policies and measures, and the timing of their implementation. Despite the perceived importance of technical assessments in 'evidence-based' decision environments, assessments cannot be undertaken independent of values and politics, nor are they capable of eliminating the uncertainty that clouds decision-making on climate adaptation As such, assessments can trigger as many questions as they answer, leaving practitioners and stakeholders to question their value. This paper explores the value of vulnerability/risk assessments in climate change adaptation planning processes as a catalyst for learning in four case studies in Southeastern Australia. Data were collected using qualitative interviews with stakeholders involved in the assessments and analysed using a social learning framework. This analysis revealed that detailed and tangible strategies or actions often do not emerge directly from technical assessments. However, it also revealed that the assessments became important platforms for social learning. In providing these platforms, assessments present opportunities to question initial assumptions, explore multiple framings of an issue, generate new information, and galvanise support for collective actions. This study highlights the need for more explicit recognition and understanding of the important role social learning plays in climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning more broadly.

  9. Method for Estimating Operational Loads on Aerospace Structures Using Span-Wisely Distributed Surface Strains

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.; Fleischer, Van Tran

    2013-01-01

    This report presents a new method for estimating operational loads (bending moments, shear loads, and torques) acting on slender aerospace structures using distributed surface strains (unidirectional strains). The surface strain-sensing stations are to be evenly distributed along each span-wise strain-sensing line. A depth-wise cross section of the structure along each strain-sensing line can then be considered as an imaginary embedded beam. The embedded beam was first evenly divided into multiple small domains with domain junctures matching the strain-sensing stations. The new method is comprised of two steps. The first step is to determine the structure stiffness (bending or torsion) using surface strains obtained from a simple bending (or torsion) loading case, for which the applied bending moment (or torque) is known. The second step is to use the strain-determined structural stiffness (bending or torsion), and a new set of surface strains induced by any other loading case to calculate the associated operational loads (bending moments, shear loads, or torques). Performance of the new method for estimating operational loads was studied in light of finite-element analyses of several example structures subjected to different loading conditions. The new method for estimating operational loads was found to be fairly accurate, and is very promising for applications to the flight load monitoring of flying vehicles with slender wings.

  10. Assessment of climate change impacts on groundwater resources: the case study of Veneto and Friuli plain in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Critto, Andrea; Pasini, Sara; Torresan, Silvia; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    Climate change will have different impacts on water resources and water-dependent services worldwide. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. Research is needed to better understand how climate change will impact groundwater resources in specific regions and places and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with the envisaged effects of global climate change and the key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution models simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according with IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant outcomes from the described RRA application highlighted that potential climate change impacts will occur

  11. VizieR Online Data Catalog: WISE (Nasa+ 2011)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    NASA

    WISE surveyed the sky in four wavelengths of the infrared band, at a very high sensitivity. Its detector arrays have 5-sigma sensitivity limits of 120, 160, 650, and 2600 microjanskies (uJy) at 3.3, 4.7, 12, and 23 micrometres (aka microns).[8] This is a factor of 1,000 times better sensitivity than the survey completed in 1983 by the IRAS satellite in the 12 and 23 micrometre bands, and a factor of 500,000 times better than the 1990s survey by the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) satellite at 3.3 and 4.7 micrometres.[8] On the other hand, IRAS could also observe 60 and 100 micron wavelengths, which WISE does not. (1 data file).

  12. Uncertainties Associated with Quantifying Climate Change Impacts on Human Health: A Case Study for Diarrhea

    PubMed Central

    Kolstad, Erik W.; Johansson, Kjell Arne

    2011-01-01

    Background Climate change is expected to have large impacts on health at low latitudes where droughts and malnutrition, diarrhea, and malaria are projected to increase. Objectives The main objective of this study was to indicate a method to assess a range of plausible health impacts of climate change while handling uncertainties in a unambiguous manner. We illustrate this method by quantifying the impacts of projected regional warming on diarrhea in this century. Methods We combined a range of linear regression coefficients to compute projections of future climate change-induced increases in diarrhea using the results from five empirical studies and a 19-member climate model ensemble for which future greenhouse gas emissions were prescribed. Six geographical regions were analyzed. Results The model ensemble projected temperature increases of up to 4°C over land in the tropics and subtropics by the end of this century. The associated mean projected increases of relative risk of diarrhea in the six study regions were 8–11% (with SDs of 3–5%) by 2010–2039 and 22–29% (SDs of 9–12%) by 2070–2099. Conclusions Even our most conservative estimates indicate substantial impacts from climate change on the incidence of diarrhea. Nevertheless, our main conclusion is that large uncertainties are associated with future projections of diarrhea and climate change. We believe that these uncertainties can be attributed primarily to the sparsity of empirical climate–health data. Our results therefore highlight the need for empirical data in the cross section between climate and human health. PMID:20929684

  13. VoxelStats: A MATLAB Package for Multi-Modal Voxel-Wise Brain Image Analysis.

    PubMed

    Mathotaarachchi, Sulantha; Wang, Seqian; Shin, Monica; Pascoal, Tharick A; Benedet, Andrea L; Kang, Min Su; Beaudry, Thomas; Fonov, Vladimir S; Gauthier, Serge; Labbe, Aurélie; Rosa-Neto, Pedro

    2016-01-01

    In healthy individuals, behavioral outcomes are highly associated with the variability on brain regional structure or neurochemical phenotypes. Similarly, in the context of neurodegenerative conditions, neuroimaging reveals that cognitive decline is linked to the magnitude of atrophy, neurochemical declines, or concentrations of abnormal protein aggregates across brain regions. However, modeling the effects of multiple regional abnormalities as determinants of cognitive decline at the voxel level remains largely unexplored by multimodal imaging research, given the high computational cost of estimating regression models for every single voxel from various imaging modalities. VoxelStats is a voxel-wise computational framework to overcome these computational limitations and to perform statistical operations on multiple scalar variables and imaging modalities at the voxel level. VoxelStats package has been developed in Matlab(®) and supports imaging formats such as Nifti-1, ANALYZE, and MINC v2. Prebuilt functions in VoxelStats enable the user to perform voxel-wise general and generalized linear models and mixed effect models with multiple volumetric covariates. Importantly, VoxelStats can recognize scalar values or image volumes as response variables and can accommodate volumetric statistical covariates as well as their interaction effects with other variables. Furthermore, this package includes built-in functionality to perform voxel-wise receiver operating characteristic analysis and paired and unpaired group contrast analysis. Validation of VoxelStats was conducted by comparing the linear regression functionality with existing toolboxes such as glim_image and RMINC. The validation results were identical to existing methods and the additional functionality was demonstrated by generating feature case assessments (t-statistics, odds ratio, and true positive rate maps). In summary, VoxelStats expands the current methods for multimodal imaging analysis by allowing the

  14. VoxelStats: A MATLAB Package for Multi-Modal Voxel-Wise Brain Image Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Mathotaarachchi, Sulantha; Wang, Seqian; Shin, Monica; Pascoal, Tharick A.; Benedet, Andrea L.; Kang, Min Su; Beaudry, Thomas; Fonov, Vladimir S.; Gauthier, Serge; Labbe, Aurélie; Rosa-Neto, Pedro

    2016-01-01

    In healthy individuals, behavioral outcomes are highly associated with the variability on brain regional structure or neurochemical phenotypes. Similarly, in the context of neurodegenerative conditions, neuroimaging reveals that cognitive decline is linked to the magnitude of atrophy, neurochemical declines, or concentrations of abnormal protein aggregates across brain regions. However, modeling the effects of multiple regional abnormalities as determinants of cognitive decline at the voxel level remains largely unexplored by multimodal imaging research, given the high computational cost of estimating regression models for every single voxel from various imaging modalities. VoxelStats is a voxel-wise computational framework to overcome these computational limitations and to perform statistical operations on multiple scalar variables and imaging modalities at the voxel level. VoxelStats package has been developed in Matlab® and supports imaging formats such as Nifti-1, ANALYZE, and MINC v2. Prebuilt functions in VoxelStats enable the user to perform voxel-wise general and generalized linear models and mixed effect models with multiple volumetric covariates. Importantly, VoxelStats can recognize scalar values or image volumes as response variables and can accommodate volumetric statistical covariates as well as their interaction effects with other variables. Furthermore, this package includes built-in functionality to perform voxel-wise receiver operating characteristic analysis and paired and unpaired group contrast analysis. Validation of VoxelStats was conducted by comparing the linear regression functionality with existing toolboxes such as glim_image and RMINC. The validation results were identical to existing methods and the additional functionality was demonstrated by generating feature case assessments (t-statistics, odds ratio, and true positive rate maps). In summary, VoxelStats expands the current methods for multimodal imaging analysis by allowing the

  15. WISE NMR characterization of nanoscale heterogeneity and mobility in supercontracted Nephila clavipes spider dragline silk.

    PubMed

    Holland, Gregory P; Lewis, Randolph V; Yarger, Jeff L

    2004-05-12

    The addition of water to spider dragline silk results in fiber contraction to 50% its initial length and significant changes to the mechanical properties of the silk. This event has been termed supercontraction. A decrease in strength and increase in elasticity have been reported when the silk is in contact with water. Two-dimensional wide-line separation (WISE) nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) is implemented to correlate (13)C chemical shifts with mobility by observing the corresponding (1)H line widths and line shapes in water-saturated spider dragline silk. The WISE NMR spectrum of the native silk exhibits (1)H line widths that are approximately 40 kHz for all carbon environments characteristic of a rigid organic system. In contrast, the water-saturated case displays a component of the (1)H line that is narrowed to approximately 5 kHz for the glycine C(alpha) and a newly resolved alanine helical environment while the alanine C(beta) corresponding to the beta-sheet conformation remains broad. These results indicate that water permeates the amorphous, glycine-rich matrix and not the crystalline, polyalanine beta-sheets. A delay time is added to the WISE NMR pulse sequence to monitor spin diffusion between the amorphous, mobile region and the crystalline domains. The time required for spin diffusion to reach spatial equilibrium is related to the length scale of the polyalanine crystallites. This technique is employed to measure crystalline domain sizes on the nanometer length scale in water-solvated spider dragline silk. These results provide further insight into the structure of spider silk and mechanism of supercontraction.

  16. Bi-level multi-source learning for heterogeneous block-wise missing data.

    PubMed

    Xiang, Shuo; Yuan, Lei; Fan, Wei; Wang, Yalin; Thompson, Paul M; Ye, Jieping

    2014-11-15

    Bio-imaging technologies allow scientists to collect large amounts of high-dimensional data from multiple heterogeneous sources for many biomedical applications. In the study of Alzheimer's Disease (AD), neuroimaging data, gene/protein expression data, etc., are often analyzed together to improve predictive power. Joint learning from multiple complementary data sources is advantageous, but feature-pruning and data source selection are critical to learn interpretable models from high-dimensional data. Often, the data collected has block-wise missing entries. In the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), most subjects have MRI and genetic information, but only half have cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) measures, a different half has FDG-PET; only some have proteomic data. Here we propose how to effectively integrate information from multiple heterogeneous data sources when data is block-wise missing. We present a unified "bi-level" learning model for complete multi-source data, and extend it to incomplete data. Our major contributions are: (1) our proposed models unify feature-level and source-level analysis, including several existing feature learning approaches as special cases; (2) the model for incomplete data avoids imputing missing data and offers superior performance; it generalizes to other applications with block-wise missing data sources; (3) we present efficient optimization algorithms for modeling complete and incomplete data. We comprehensively evaluate the proposed models including all ADNI subjects with at least one of four data types at baseline: MRI, FDG-PET, CSF and proteomics. Our proposed models compare favorably with existing approaches.

  17. Data federations: AstroWise and its applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valentijn, Edwin A.

    2015-12-01

    The AstroWise information system is operational for the production of the results of a number astronomical survey programmes with OmegaCAM@VST and MUSE@VLT. In different forms it has also been applied to the Lofar radiotelescope, life science projects and business applications. I will discuss the common "data federation"aspects of these projects, and the data federation aspects of the Euclid Archive System.

  18. The AllWISE Motion Survey, Part 2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirkpatrick, J. Davy; Kellogg, Kendra; Schneider, Adam C.; Fajardo-Acosta, Sergio; Cushing, Michael C.; Greco, Jennifer; Mace, Gregory N.; Gelino, Christopher R.; Wright, Edward L.; Eisenhardt, Peter R. M.; Stern, Daniel; Faherty, Jacqueline K.; Sheppard, Scott S.; Lansbury, George B.; Logsdon, Sarah E.; Martin, Emily C.; McLean, Ian S.; Schurr, Steven D.; Cutri, Roc M.; Conrow, Tim

    2016-06-01

    We use the AllWISE Data Release to continue our search for Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE)-detected motions. In this paper, we publish another 27,846 motion objects, bringing the total number to 48,000 when objects found during our original AllWISE motion survey are included. We use this list, along with the lists of confirmed WISE-based motion objects from the recent papers by Luhman and by Schneider et al., and candidate motion objects from the recent paper by Gagné et al., to search for widely separated, common-proper-motion systems. We identify 1039 such candidate systems. All 48,000 objects are further analyzed using color-color and color-mag plots to provide possible characterizations prior to spectroscopic follow-up. We present spectra of 172 of these, supplemented with new spectra of 23 comparison objects from the literature, and provide classifications and physical interpretations of interesting sources. Highlights include: (1) the identification of three G/K dwarfs that can be used as standard candles to study clumpiness and grain size in nearby molecular clouds because these objects are currently moving behind the clouds, (2) the confirmation/discovery of several M, L, and T dwarfs and one white dwarf whose spectrophotometric distance estimates place them 5-20 pc from the Sun, (3) the suggestion that the Na i “D” line be used as a diagnostic tool for interpreting and classifying metal-poor late-M and L dwarfs, (4) the recognition of a triple system including a carbon dwarf and late-M subdwarf, for which model fits of the late-M subdwarf (giving [Fe/H] ≈ -1.0) provide a measured metallicity for the carbon star, and (5) a possible 24 pc distant K5 dwarf + peculiar red L5 system with an apparent physical separation of 0.1 pc.

  19. Exploring the Universe with WISE and Cloud Computing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Benford, Dominic J.

    2011-01-01

    WISE is a recently-completed astronomical survey mission that has imaged the entire sky in four infrared wavelength bands. The large quantity of science images returned consists of 2,776,922 individual snapshots in various locations in each band which, along with ancillary data, totals around 110TB of raw, uncompressed data. Making the most use of this data requires advanced computing resources. I will discuss some initial attempts in the use of cloud computing to make this large problem tractable.

  20. Usability testing of AsthmaWise with older adults.

    PubMed

    Burns, Pippa; Jones, Sandra C; Iverson, Don; Caputi, Peter

    2013-05-01

    There are many reasons why online self-management education is attractive to both patients and providers. AsthmaWise, an online self-management program, was developed using a Moodle platform, to enable older adults to learn asthma self-management skills. This study aimed to improve AsthmaWise through conducting: usability testing with a sample of end users; a cognitive walk-through undertaken by an independent health researcher; and assessment of content readability. A Perceived Health Web Site Usability Questionnaire score of 67% was achieved, indicating that there were usability issues that needed to be addressed. The cognitive walk-through and readability assessment identified unique issues that were not identified through usability testing with end users. The testing process allowed issues to be identified and rectified before piloting AsthmaWise, creating a more accessible and refined end product. The involvement of the site designer in the testing process was valuable and is highly recommended. This study shows that usability testing involving both end users and experts is an essential part of the design process that is relatively easy and inexpensive to undertake and can be effectively conducted by a nonexpert.

  1. The Astro-WISE optical image pipeline. Development and implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McFarland, John P.; Verdoes-Kleijn, Gijs; Sikkema, Gert; Helmich, Ewout M.; Boxhoorn, Danny R.; Valentijn, Edwin A.

    2013-01-01

    We have designed and implemented a novel way to process wide-field astronomical data within a distributed environment of hardware resources and humanpower. The system is characterized by integration of archiving, calibration, and post-calibration analysis of data from raw, through intermediate, to final data products. It is a true integration thanks to complete linking of data lineage from the final catalogs back to the raw data. This paper describes the pipeline processing of optical wide-field astronomical data from the WFI (http://www.eso.org/lasilla/instruments/wfi/) and OmegaCAM (http://www.astro-wise.org/~omegacam/) instruments using the Astro-WISE information system (the Astro-WISE Environment or simply AWE). This information system is an environment of hardware resources and humanpower distributed over Europe. AWE is characterized by integration of archiving, data calibration, post-calibration analysis, and archiving of raw, intermediate, and final data products. The true integration enables a complete data processing cycle from the raw data up to the publication of science-ready catalogs. The advantages of this system for very large datasets are in the areas of: survey operations management, quality control, calibration analyses, and massive processing.

  2. Quasi-decadal Oscillation in the CMIP5 and CMIP3 Climate Model Simulations: California Case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, J.; Yin, H.; Reyes, E.; Chung, F. I.

    2014-12-01

    The ongoing three drought years in California are reminding us of two other historical long drought periods: 1987-1992 and 1928-1934. This kind of interannual variability is corresponding to the dominating 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillation in precipitation and streamflow in California. When using global climate model projections to assess the climate change impact on water resources planning in California, it is natural to ask if global climate models are able to reproduce the observed interannual variability like 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillation. Further spectral analysis to tree ring retrieved precipitation and historical precipitation record proves the existence of 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillation in California. But while implementing spectral analysis to all the CMIP5 and CMIP3 global climate model historical simulations using wavelet analysis approach, it was found that only two models in CMIP3 , CGCM 2.3.2a of MRI and NCAP PCM1.0, and only two models in CMIP5, MIROC5 and CESM1-WACCM, have statistically significant 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillations in California. More interesting, the existence of 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillation in the global climate model simulation is also sensitive to initial conditions. 12-13 yr quasi-decadal oscillation occurs in one ensemble run of CGCM 2.3.2a of MRI but does not exist in the other four ensemble runs.

  3. Climate effects of emission standards: the case for gasoline and diesel cars.

    PubMed

    Tanaka, Katsumasa; Berntsen, Terje; Fuglestvedt, Jan S; Rypdal, Kristin

    2012-05-01

    Passenger transport affects climate through various mechanisms involving both long-lived and short-lived climate forcers. Because diesel cars generally emit less CO(2) than gasoline cars, CO(2) emission taxes for vehicle registrations and fuels enhance the consumer preference for diesel cars over gasoline cars. However, with the non-CO(2) components, which have been changed and will be changed under the previous and upcoming vehicle emission standards, what does the shift from gasoline to diesel cars mean for the climate mitigation? By using a simple climate model, we demonstrate that, under the earlier emissions standards (EURO 3 and 4), a diesel car causes a larger warming up to a decade after the emissions than a similar gasoline car due to the higher emissions of black carbon and NO(X) (enhancing the O(3) production). Beyond a decade, the warming caused by a diesel car becomes, however, weaker because of the lower CO(2) emissions. As the latter emissions standards (EURO 5 and 6) are phased in, the short-term warming due to a diesel car becomes smaller primarily due to the lower black carbon emissions. Thus, although results are subject to restrictive assumptions and uncertainties, the switch from gasoline to diesel cars encouraged by CO(2) taxes does not contradict with the climate mitigation focusing on long-term consequences.

  4. Running climate model in the commercial cloud computing environment: A case study using Community Earth System Model (CESM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, X.; Huang, X.; Jiao, C.; Flanner, M.; Raeker, T.; Palen, B.

    2015-12-01

    Numerical model is the major tool used in the studies of climate change and climate projection. Because of the enormous complexity involved in such climate models, they are usually run on supercomputing centers or at least high-performance computing clusters. The cloud computing environment, however, offers an alternative option for running climate models. Compared to traditional supercomputing environment, cloud computing offers more flexibility yet also extra technical challenges. Using the CESM (community earth system model) as a case study, we test the feasibility of running the climate model in the cloud-based virtual computing environment. Using the cloud computing resources offered by Amazon Web Service (AWS) Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) and an open-source software, StarCluster, which can set up virtual cluster, we investigate how to run the CESM on AWS EC2 and the efficiency of parallelization of CESM on the AWS virtual cluster. We created virtual computing cluster using StarCluster on the AWS EC2 instances and carried out CESM simulations on such virtual cluster. We then compared the wall-clock time for one year of CESM simulation on the virtual cluster with that on a local high-performance computing (HPC) cluster with infiniband connections and operated by the University of Michigan. The results show that the CESM model can be efficiently scaled with number of CPUs on the AWS EC2 virtual computer cluster, and the parallelization efficiency is comparable to that on local HPC cluster. For standard configuration of the CESM at a spatial resolution of 1.9-degree latitude and 2.5-degree longitude, increasing the number of CPUs from 16 to 64 leads to a more than twice reduction in wall-clock running time and the scaling is nearly linear. Beyond 64 CPUs, the communication latency starts to overweight the saving of distributed computing and the parallelization efficiency becomes nearly level off.

  5. Climate change could threaten blood supply by altering the distribution of vector-borne disease: an Australian case-study

    PubMed Central

    Bambrick, Hilary J.; Woodruff, Rosalie E.; Hanigan, Ivan C.

    2009-01-01

    Background Climate change is expected to promote more intense and prolonged outbreaks of vector-borne disease, and alter the geographic boundaries of transmission. This has implications for the safety and supply of fresh blood products around the world. In Australia, a recent outbreak of dengue fever caused a prolonged regional shortage in the supply of fresh blood products. Objective To highlight the potential for climate change to affect the safety and supply of blood globally through its impact on vector-borne disease, using the example of dengue in Australia as a case-study. Design We modelled geographic regions in Australia suitable for dengue transmission over the coming century under four climate change scenarios, estimated changes to the population at risk and effect on blood supply. Results Geographic regions with climates that are favourable to dengue transmission could expand to include large population centres in a number of currently dengue-free regions in Australia and reduce blood supply across several states. Conclusion Unless there is strong intergovernmental action on greenhouse gas reduction, there could be an eight-fold increase in the number of people living in dengue prone regions in Australia by the end of the century. Similar impacts will be experienced elsewhere and for other vector-borne diseases, with regions currently on the margins of transmission zones most affected. Globally, climate change is likely to compound existing problems of blood safety and supply in already endemic areas and cause future shortages in fresh blood products through its impact on transmission of vector-borne disease. PMID:20052315

  6. ROLE OF INSTITUTIONAL CLIMATE IN FOSTERING DIVERSITY IN BIOMEDICAL RESEARCH WORKFORCE: A CASE STUDY

    PubMed Central

    Butts, Gary C.; Hurd, Yasmin; Palermo, Ann-Gel S.; Delbrune, Denise; Saran, Suman; Zony, Chati; Krulwich, Terry A.

    2012-01-01

    This article reviews the barriers to diversity in biomedical research, describes the evolution and efforts to address climate issues to enhance the ability to attract, retain and develop underrepresented minorities (URM) - underrepresented minorities whose underrepresentation is found both in science and medicine, in the graduate school biomedical research doctoral programs (PhD and MD/PhD) at Mount Sinai School of Medicine (MSSM). We also describe the potential beneficial impact of having a climate that supports diversity and inclusion in the biomedical research workforce. MSSM diversity climate efforts are discussed as part of a comprehensive plan to increase diversity in all institutional programs PhD, MD/PhD, MD, and at the residency, post doctoral fellow, and faculty levels. Lessons learned from four decades of targeted programs and activities at MSSM may be of value to other institutions interested in improving diversity in the biomedical science and academic medicine workforce. PMID:22786740

  7. Assessing reliability of regional climate projections: the case of Indian monsoon.

    PubMed

    Ramesh, K V; Goswami, Prashant

    2014-02-12

    Projections of climate change are emerging to play major roles in many applications. However, assessing reliability of climate change projections, especially at regional scales, remains a major challenge. An important question is the degree of progress made since the earlier IPCC simulations (CMIP3) to the latest, recently completed CMIP5. We consider the continental Indian monsoon as an example and apply a hierarchical approach for assessing reliability, using the accuracy in simulating the historical trend as the primary criterion. While the scope has increased in CMIP5, there is essentially no improvement in skill in projections since CMIP3 in terms of reliability (confidence). Thus, it may be necessary to consider acceptable models for specific assessment rather than simple ensemble. Analysis of climate indices shows that in both CMIP5 and CMIP3 certain common processes at large and regional scales as well as slow timescales are associated with successful simulation of trend and mean.

  8. Assessing reliability of regional climate projections: the case of Indian monsoon

    PubMed Central

    Ramesh, K. V.; Goswami, Prashant

    2014-01-01

    Projections of climate change are emerging to play major roles in many applications. However, assessing reliability of climate change projections, especially at regional scales, remains a major challenge. An important question is the degree of progress made since the earlier IPCC simulations (CMIP3) to the latest, recently completed CMIP5. We consider the continental Indian monsoon as an example and apply a hierarchical approach for assessing reliability, using the accuracy in simulating the historical trend as the primary criterion. While the scope has increased in CMIP5, there is essentially no improvement in skill in projections since CMIP3 in terms of reliability (confidence). Thus, it may be necessary to consider acceptable models for specific assessment rather than simple ensemble. Analysis of climate indices shows that in both CMIP5 and CMIP3 certain common processes at large and regional scales as well as slow timescales are associated with successful simulation of trend and mean. PMID:24518919

  9. Organizational Climate and Work Addiction in Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, 2014: a Case Study

    PubMed Central

    Rafiee, Noora; Bahrami, Mohammad Amin; Zare, Vahid; Mohammadi, Mahan

    2015-01-01

    Introduction The occupational nature of employees in headquarters units of the University requires them to deal with support issues. Thus, there is some pressure on these employees to complete their assignments on time so that employees in the line units can accurately and expeditiously perform their duties. As a result, work addiction behaviors are sometimes observed among the headquarters personnel. Considering the importance of work addiction and recognizing the factors that intensify it, this study investigated the relationship between organizational climate and the work addiction of headquarters personnel at the Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences. Methods This descriptive-analytic study was conducted using stratified random sampling of 151 University employees in 2014. The data collection tool was an organizational climate questionnaire, which was supplemented by the Work Addiction Risk Test (WART). The data were analyzed using the Pearson test, Spearman test, independent t-test, Mann-Whitney test, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), and the Kruskal-Wallis test using IBM-SPSS version 20. Results The findings of this study showed that the organizational climate was at a moderate level, and employees were in the danger level in terms of work addiction. In addition, among the dimensions of organizational climate, the risk dimension had a significant relationship with work addiction (p<0.05), and the dimensions of structure and responsibility were significantly different from occupational group and monthly salary (p<0.05). Single employees showed a significant difference from married employees in the two dimensions of criteria and conflict (p<0.05). Conclusion Since the organizational climate score was low and the work addiction score was at the high-risk level, this issue demands more attention of senior managers and human resource officers of organizations to improve the organizational climate and increase employees’ awareness of work addiction

  10. Reducing the Analytical Bottleneck for Domain Scientists: Lessons from a Climate Data Visualization Case Study

    SciTech Connect

    Dasgupta, Aritra; Poco, Jorge; Bertini, Enrico; Silva, Claudio T.

    2016-01-01

    The gap between large-scale data production rate and the rate of generation of data-driven scientific insights has led to an analytical bottleneck in scientific domains like climate, biology, etc. This is primarily due to the lack of innovative analytical tools that can help scientists efficiently analyze and explore alternative hypotheses about the data, and communicate their findings effectively to a broad audience. In this paper, by reflecting on a set of successful collaborative research efforts between with a group of climate scientists and visualization researchers, we introspect how interactive visualization can help reduce the analytical bottleneck for domain scientists.

  11. Evaluating climate variables, indexes and thresholds governing Arctic urban sustainability: case study of Russian permafrost regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anisimov, O. A.; Kokorev, V.

    2013-12-01

    Addressing Arctic urban sustainability today forces planners to deal with the complex interplay of multiple factors, including governance and economic development, demography and migration, environmental changes and land use, changes in the ecosystems and their services, and climate change. While the latter can be seen as a factor that exacerbates the existing vulnerabilities to other stressors, changes in temperature, precipitation, snow, river and lake ice, and the hydrological regime also have direct implications for the cities in the North. Climate change leads to reduced demand for heating energy, on one hand, and heightened concerns about the fate of the infrastructure built upon thawing permafrost, on the other. Changes in snowfall are particularly important and have direct implications for the urban economy, as together with heating costs, expenses for snow removal from streets, airport runways, roofs and ventilation corridors underneath buildings erected on pile foundations on permafrost constitute the bulk of the city's maintenance budget. Many cities are located in river valleys and are prone to flooding that leads to enormous economic losses and casualties, including human deaths. The severity of the northern climate has direct implications for demographic changes governed by regional migration and labor flows. Climate could thus be viewed as an inexhaustible public resource that creates opportunities for sustainable urban development. Long-term trends show that climate as a resource is becoming more readily available in the Russian North, notwithstanding the general perception that globally climate change is one of the challenges facing humanity in the 21st century. In this study we explore the sustainability of the Arctic urban environment under changing climatic conditions. We identify key governing variables and indexes and study the thresholds beyond which changes in the governing climatic parameters have significant impact on the economy

  12. Biomimicry as an approach for sustainable architecture case of arid regions with hot and dry climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouabdallah, Nabila; M'sellem, Houda; Alkama, Djamel

    2016-07-01

    This paper aims to study the problem of thermal comfort inside buildings located in hot and arid climates. The principal idea behind this research is using concepts based on the potential of nature as an instrument that helps creating appropriate facades with the environment "building skin". The biomimetic architecture imitates nature through the study of form, function, behaviour and ecosystems of biological organisms. This research aims to clarify the possibilities that can be offered by biomimicry architecture to develop architectural bio-inspired building's design that can help to enhance indoor thermal ambiance in buildings located in hot and dry climate which helps to achieve thermal comfort for users.

  13. Is there a need for government interventions to adapt energy infrastructures to climate change? A German case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Groth, Markus; Cortekar, Jörg

    2015-04-01

    The option of adapting to climate change is becoming more and more important in climate change policy. Hence, responding to climate change now involves both mitigation to address the cause and adaptation as a response to already ongoing and expected changes. These changes also have relevance for the current and future energy sector in Germany. An energy sector that in the course of the German Energiewende also has to deal with a fundamental shift in energy supply from fossil fuel to renewable energies in the next decades. Thereby it needs to be considered that the energy sector is one critical infrastructure in the European Union that needs to be protected. Critical infrastructures can be defined as organisations or facilities of special importance for the country and its people where failure or functional impairment would lead to severe supply bottlenecks, significant disturbance of public order or other dramatic consequences. Regarding the adaptation to climate change, the main question is, whether adaptation options will be implemented voluntarily by companies or not. This will be the case, when the measure is considered a private good and is economically beneficial. If, on the contrary, the measure is considered a public good, additional incentives are needed. Based on a synthesis of the current knowledge regarding the possible impacts of climate change on the German energy sector along its value-added chain, the paper points out, that the power distribution and the grid infrastructure is consistently attributed the highest vulnerability. Direct physical impacts and damages to the transmission and distribution grids, utility poles, power transformers, and relay stations are expected due to more intense extreme weather events like storms, floods or thunderstorms. Furthermore fundaments of utility poles can be eroded and relay stations or power transformers can be flooded, which might cause short circuits etc. Besides these impacts causing damage to the physical

  14. Culture, climate change and farm-level groundwater management: An Australian case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanderson, Matthew R.; Curtis, Allen L.

    2016-05-01

    Cultural factors - values, beliefs, and norms - provide important insights into the environmental attitudes, risk perceptions, and behaviors of the general population. Little is known, however, about the ostensibly complex relationships linking those elements of culture to climate change risk perceptions, especially in the context of farm level decision in the ground water context. This paper addresses that gap through an analysis of survey data provided by irrigators in the Namoi catchment of Australia's Murray-Darling Basin. We use Values-Beliefs-Norms theory to construct multivariate models of the relationship between ground water irrigators' interpretations of climate change risks and their implementation of adaptive water conservation practices. Results indicate that these cultural factors are important explanations of irrigators' climate change risk perceptions, and these risk perceptions are related to adaptive ground water management strategies at the farm level. The implications of the findings are discussed for research on the culture-environment nexus and for outreach designed to encourage agricultural adaptations to climate change.

  15. Do Climate Change Policies Promote or Conflict with Subjective Wellbeing: A Case Study of Suzhou, China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Miaomiao; Huang, Yining; Hiscock, Rosemary; Li, Qin; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L; Sabel, Clive E

    2016-03-21

    As public expectations for health rise, health measurements broaden from a focus on death, disease, and disability to wellbeing. However, wellbeing hasn't been incorporated into the framework of climate change policy decision-making in Chinese cities. Based on survey data (n = 763) from Suzhou, this study used Generalized Estimation Equation approach to model external conditions associated with wellbeing. Then, semi-quantitative analyses were conducted to provide a first indication to whether local climate change policies promote or conflict with wellbeing through altering these conditions. Our findings suggested: (i) Socio-demographic (age, job satisfaction, health), psychosocial (satisfaction with social life, ontological security/resilience) and environmental conditions (distance to busy road, noise annoyance and range hoods in the kitchen) were significantly associated with wellbeing; (ii) None of existing climate change strategies in Suzhou conflict with wellbeing. Three mitigation policies (promotion of tertiary and high-tech industry, increased renewable energy in buildings, and restrictions on car use) and one adaption policy (increasing resilience) brought positive co-benefits for wellbeing, through the availability of high-satisfied jobs, reduced dependence on range hoods, noise reduction, and valuing citizens, respectively. This study also provided implications for other similar Chinese cities that potential consequences of climate change interventions for wellbeing should be considered.

  16. Motivated recall in the service of the economic system: The case of anthropogenic climate change.

    PubMed

    Hennes, Erin P; Ruisch, Benjamin C; Feygina, Irina; Monteiro, Christopher A; Jost, John T

    2016-06-01

    The contemporary political landscape is characterized by numerous divisive issues. Unlike many other issues, however, much of the disagreement about climate change centers not on how best to take action to address the problem, but on whether the problem exists at all. Psychological studies indicate that, to the extent that sustainability initiatives are seen as threatening to the socioeconomic system, individuals may downplay environmental problems in order to defend and protect the status quo. In the current research, participants were presented with scientific information about climate change and later asked to recall details of what they had learned. Individuals who were experimentally induced (Study 1) or dispositionally inclined (Studies 2 and 3) to justify the economic system misremembered the evidence to be less serious, and this was associated with increased skepticism. However, when high system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in a recovery, they recalled climate change information to be more serious than did those assigned to a control condition. When low system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in recession, they recalled the information to be less serious (Study 3). These findings suggest that because system justification can impact information processing, simply providing the public with scientific evidence may be insufficient to inspire action to mitigate climate change. However, linking environmental information to statements about the strength of the economic system may satiate system justification needs and break the psychological link between proenvironmental initiatives and economic risk. (PsycINFO Database Record

  17. Water Resources Risks and the Climate Resilience Toolkit: Tools, Case Studies, and Partnerships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Read, E. K.; Blodgett, D. L.; Booth, N.

    2014-12-01

    The Water Resources Risk topic of the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) is designed to provide decision support, technical, and educational resources to communities, water resource managers, policy analysts, and water utilities working to increase the resilience of water resources to climate change. We highlight the partnerships (between federal and state agencies, non-governmental organizations, and private partners), tools (e.g., downscaled climate products, historical and real-time water data, and decision support) and success stories that are informing the CRT Water Resources Risks Theme content, and identify remaining needs in available resources for building resilience of water resources to climate change. The following questions will frame the content of the Water Resources Risk CRT: How are human and natural components of the hydrologic cycle changing? How can communities and water managers plan for uncertain future conditions? How will changing water resources impact food production, energy resources, ecosystems, and human health? What water resources data are of high value to society and are they easily accessible? Input on existing tools, resources, or potential partnerships that could be used to further develop content and fill gaps in the Water Resources CRT is welcome. We also invite ideas for water resources 'innovation challenges', in which technology developers work to create tools to that enhance the capacity of communities and managers to increase resilience of water resources at the local and regional scales.

  18. Do Climate Change Policies Promote or Conflict with Subjective Wellbeing: A Case Study of Suzhou, China

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Miaomiao; Huang, Yining; Hiscock, Rosemary; Li, Qin; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L.; Sabel, Clive E.

    2016-01-01

    As public expectations for health rise, health measurements broaden from a focus on death, disease, and disability to wellbeing. However, wellbeing hasn’t been incorporated into the framework of climate change policy decision-making in Chinese cities. Based on survey data (n = 763) from Suzhou, this study used Generalized Estimation Equation approach to model external conditions associated with wellbeing. Then, semi-quantitative analyses were conducted to provide a first indication to whether local climate change policies promote or conflict with wellbeing through altering these conditions. Our findings suggested: (i) Socio-demographic (age, job satisfaction, health), psychosocial (satisfaction with social life, ontological security/resilience) and environmental conditions (distance to busy road, noise annoyance and range hoods in the kitchen) were significantly associated with wellbeing; (ii) None of existing climate change strategies in Suzhou conflict with wellbeing. Three mitigation policies (promotion of tertiary and high–tech industry, increased renewable energy in buildings, and restrictions on car use) and one adaption policy (increasing resilience) brought positive co–benefits for wellbeing, through the availability of high-satisfied jobs, reduced dependence on range hoods, noise reduction, and valuing citizens, respectively. This study also provided implications for other similar Chinese cities that potential consequences of climate change interventions for wellbeing should be considered. PMID:27007389

  19. The Dynamics of Climate Change: A Case Study in Organisational Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wasdell, David

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: Based in the discipline of applied consultancy-research, this paper seeks to present a synthesis-review of the social dynamics underlying the stalled negotiations of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Its aim is to enhance understanding of the processes involved, to offer a working agenda to the organizational…

  20. Vulnerability of indigenous health to climate change: a case study of Uganda's Batwa Pygmies.

    PubMed

    Berrang-Ford, Lea; Dingle, Kathryn; Ford, James D; Lee, Celine; Lwasa, Shuaib; Namanya, Didas B; Henderson, Jim; Llanos, Alejandro; Carcamo, Cesar; Edge, Victoria

    2012-09-01

    The potential impacts of climate change on human health in sub-Saharan Africa are wide-ranging, complex, and largely adverse. The region's Indigenous peoples are considered to be at heightened risk given their relatively poor health outcomes, marginal social status, and resource-based livelihoods; however, little attention has been given to these most vulnerable of the vulnerable. This paper contributes to addressing this gap by taking a bottom-up approach to assessing health vulnerabilities to climate change in two Batwa Pygmy communities in rural Uganda. Rapid Rural Appraisal and PhotoVoice field methods complemented by qualitative data analysis were used to identify key climate-sensitive, community-identified health outcomes, describe determinants of sensitivity at multiple scales, and characterize adaptive capacity of Batwa health systems. The findings stress the importance of human drivers of vulnerability and adaptive capacity and the need to address social determinants of health in order to reduce the potential disease burden of climate change.

  1. A case study of teaching social responsibility to doctoral students in the climate sciences.

    PubMed

    Børsen, Tom; Antia, Avan N; Glessmer, Mirjam Sophia

    2013-12-01

    The need to make young scientists aware of their social responsibilities is widely acknowledged, although the question of how to actually do it has so far gained limited attention. A 2-day workshop entitled "Prepared for social responsibility?" attended by doctoral students from multiple disciplines in climate science, was targeted at the perceived needs of the participants and employed a format that took them through three stages of ethics education: sensitization, information and empowerment. The workshop aimed at preparing doctoral students to manage ethical dilemmas that emerge when climate science meets the public sphere (e.g., to identify and balance legitimate perspectives on particular types of geo-engineering), and is an example of how to include social responsibility in doctoral education. The paper describes the workshop from the three different perspectives of the authors: the course teacher, the head of the graduate school, and a graduate student. The elements that contributed to the success of the workshop, and thus make it an example to follow, are (1) the involvement of participating students, (2) the introduction of external expertise and role models in climate science, and (3) a workshop design that focused on ethical analyses of examples from the climate sciences.

  2. Fossils and Fossil Climate: The Case for Equable Continental Interiors in the Eocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wing, Scott L.; Greenwood, David R.

    1993-08-01

    There are many methods for inferring terrestrial palaeoclimates from palaeontological data, including the size and species diversity of ectothermic vertebrates, the locomotor and dental adaptations of mammals, characteristics of leaf shape, size, and epidermis, wood anatomy, and the climatic preferences of nearest living relatives of fossil taxa. Estimates of palaeotemperature have also been based on stable oxygen isotope ratios in shells and bones. Interpretation of any of these data relies in some way on uniformitarian assumptions, although at different levels depending on the method. Most of these methods can be applied to a palaeoclimatic reconstruction for the interior of North America during the early Eocene, which is thought to be the warmest interval of global climate in the Cenozoic. Most of the data indicate warm equable climates with little frost. Rainfall was variable, but strong aridity was local or absent. The inferred palaeoclimate is very different from the present climate of the region and from model simulations for the Eocene. This suggests that models fail to incorporate forcing factors that were present at that time, that they treat the heat regime of continents unrealistically, and/or that model inputs such as sea surface temperature gradients or palaeotopography are incorrect.

  3. Existing Whole-House Case Study: Sunnyvale Marine Climate Deep Retrofit - Sunnyvale, California

    SciTech Connect

    2015-03-01

    In this project, the Building America team Alliance for Residential Building Innovation and Allen Gilliland of One Sky Homes collaborated on a marine climate retrofit project designed to meet both Passive House and Building America program standards. The scope included sealing, installing wall, roof and floor insulation (previously lacking), replacing windows, and upgrading the heating and cooling system.

  4. Modelling the Effects of Land-Use Changes on Climate: a Case Study on Yamula DAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Köylü, Ü.; Geymen, A.

    2016-10-01

    Dams block flow of rivers and cause artificial water reservoirs which affect the climate and the land use characteristics of the river basin. In this research, the effect of the huge water body obtained by Yamula Dam in Kızılırmak Basin is analysed over surrounding spatial's land use and climate change. Mann Kendal non-parametrical statistical test, Theil&Sen Slope method, Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) methods are integrated for spatial and temporal analysis of the research area. For this research humidity, temperature, wind speed, precipitation observations which are collected in 16 weather stations nearby Kızılırmak Basin are analyzed. After that these statistical information is combined by GIS data over years. An application is developed for GIS analysis in Python Programming Language and integrated with ArcGIS software. Statistical analysis calculated in the R Project for Statistical Computing and integrated with developed application. According to the statistical analysis of extracted time series of meteorological parameters, statistical significant spatiotemporal trends are observed for climate change and land use characteristics. In this study, we indicated the effect of big dams in local climate on semi-arid Yamula Dam.

  5. Downscaling future climate projections to the watershed scale: a north San Francisco Bay estuary case study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Micheli, Elisabeth; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; Weiss, Stuart; Kennedy, Morgan

    2012-01-01

    We modeled the hydrology of basins draining into the northern portion of the San Francisco Bay Estuary (North San Pablo Bay) using a regional water balance model (Basin Characterization Model; BCM) to estimate potential effects of climate change at the watershed scale. The BCM calculates water balance components, including runoff, recharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and stream flow, based on climate, topography, soils and underlying geology, and the solar-driven energy balance. We downscaled historical and projected precipitation and air temperature values derived from weather stations and global General Circulation Models (GCMs) to a spatial scale of 270 m. We then used the BCM to estimate hydrologic response to climate change for four scenarios spanning this century (2000–2100). Historical climate patterns show that Marin’s coastal regions are typically on the order of 2 °C cooler and receive five percent more precipitation compared to the inland valleys of Sonoma and Napa because of marine influences and local topography. By the last 30 years of this century, North Bay scenarios project average minimum temperatures to increase by 1.0 °C to 3.1 °C and average maximum temperatures to increase by 2.1 °C to 3.4 °C (in comparison to conditions experienced over the last 30 years, 1981–2010). Precipitation projections for the 21st century vary between GCMs (ranging from 2 to 15% wetter than the 20th-century average). Temperature forcing increases the variability of modeled runoff, recharge, and stream discharge, and shifts hydrologic cycle timing. For both high- and low-rainfall scenarios, by the close of this century warming is projected to amplify late-season climatic water deficit (a measure of drought stress on soils) by 8% to 21%. Hydrologic variability within a single river basin demonstrated at the scale of subwatersheds may prove an important consideration for water managers in the face of climate change. Our results suggest that in arid

  6. Impact of regional afforestation on climatic conditions in metropolitan areas: case study of Copenhagen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stysiak, Aleksander Andrzej; Bergen Jensen, Marina; Mahura, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Like most other places, European metropolitan areas will face a range of climate-related challenges over the next decades that may influence the nature of urban life across the continent. Under future urbanization and climate change scenarios the well-being and comfort of the urban population might become progressively compromised. In urban areas, the effects of the warming climate will be accelerated by combination of Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) and extreme heat waves. The land cover composition directly influences atmospheric variability, and can either escalate or downscale the projected changes. Vegetation, forest ecosystems in particular, are anticipated to play an important role in modulating local and regional climatic conditions, and to be vital factor in the process of adapting cities to warming climate. This study investigates the impact of forest and land-cover change on formation and development of temperature regimes in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area (CPH-MA). Potential to modify the UHI effect in CPH-MA is estimated. Using 2009 meteorological data, and up-to-date 2012 high resolution land-cover data we employed the online integrated meteorology-chemistry/aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) modeling system to simulate air temperature (at 2 meter height) fields for a selected period in July 2009. Employing research tools (such as METGRAF meteorological software and Geographical Information Systems) we then estimated the influence of different afforestation and urbanization scenarios with new forests being located after the Danish national afforestation plan, after proximity to the city center, after dominating wind characteristics, and urbanization taking place as densification of the existing conurbation. This study showed the difference in temperature up to 3.25°C, and the decrease in the spatial extent of temperature fields up to 68%, depending on the selected scenario. Performed simulations demonstrated

  7. Climate Change Impact on Meteorological, Hydrological, and Agricultural Drought: A case study of Central Illinois

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, X.; Wang, D.; Hejazi, M. I.; Valocchi, A. J.

    2010-12-01

    Regional climate change projections based on dynamic downscaling through regional climate models are used to assess drought frequency, intensity and duration, and the impact propagation from meteorological, hydrological and agricultural sectors. The impact on a meteorological drought index (standardized precipitation index, SPI) is first assessed based on daily climate inputs from RCMs driven by three general circulation models (GCMs) (PCM, HadCM3, CCSM3) with different climate sensitivities. Two emission scenarios, relatively high and low emission, are undertaken for each of the three GCMs and dynamically downscaled through the RCMs. Feeding the climate projections to a calibrated hydro-agronomic model at the watershed scale in Central Illinois, hydrological drought (standardized runoff index, SRI) and agricultural drought (standardized soil water index, SSWI) indices and the economic impacts are assessed. RCMs driven by different GCMs predict different changes of drought properties. From the intensity-density-frequency (IDF) curves of SPI, SSWI, and SRI based on the three GCM-RCMs, as expected, the return period increases with the increase of drought duration for a given drought intensity. However, the change of IDF curves from baseline to future years varies with GCM-RCM and drought indicator. HadCM3-RCM predicts moderate increase of drought frequency and CCSM3-RCM predicts significant increase of drought frequency especially for the SSWI and SRI with moderate drought intensity (I<-1). The combination of climate sensitivity and emission scenarios determines the future drought predictions. In general high sensitivity and high emission level results in more serious droughts, particularly, the increase of the frequency of moderate drought is more significant with high emission scenarios. However, even though the climate sensitivity of HadCM3 is high compared to the other two GCMs, the exceedance probability curves of drought indices from HadCM3-RCM is almost

  8. A water market simulator considering pair-wise trades between agents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huskova, I.; Erfani, T.; Harou, J. J.

    2012-04-01

    In many basins in England no further water abstraction licences are available. Trading water between water rights holders has been recognized as a potentially effective and economically efficient strategy to mitigate increasing scarcity. A screening tool that could assess the potential for trade through realistic simulation of individual water rights holders would help assess the solution's potential contribution to local water management. We propose an optimisation-driven water market simulator that predicts pair-wise trade in a catchment and represents its interaction with natural hydrology and engineered infrastructure. A model is used to emulate licence-holders' willingness to engage in short-term trade transactions. In their simplest form agents are represented using an economic benefit function. The working hypothesis is that trading behaviour can be partially predicted based on differences in marginal values of water over space and time and estimates of transaction costs on pair-wise trades. We discuss the further possibility of embedding rules, norms and preferences of the different water user sectors to more realistically represent the behaviours, motives and constraints of individual licence holders. The potential benefits and limitations of such a social simulation (agent-based) approach is contrasted with our simulator where agents are driven by economic optimization. A case study based on the Dove River Basin (UK) demonstrates model inputs and outputs. The ability of the model to suggest impacts of water rights policy reforms on trading is discussed.

  9. Past climate change and plant evolution in Western North America: a case study in Rosaceae.

    PubMed

    Töpel, Mats; Antonelli, Alexandre; Yesson, Chris; Eriksen, Bente

    2012-01-01

    Species in the ivesioid clade of Potentilla (Rosaceae) are endemic to western North America, an area that underwent widespread aridification during the global temperature decrease following the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum. Several morphological features interpreted as adaptations to drought are found in the clade, and many species occupy extremely dry habitats. Recent phylogenetic analyses have shown that the sister group of this clade is Potentilla section Rivales, a group with distinct moist habitat preferences. This has led to the hypothesis that the ivesioids (genera Ivesia, Horkelia and Horkeliella) diversified in response to the late Tertiary aridification of western North America. We used phyloclimatic modeling and a fossil-calibrated dated phylogeny of the family Rosaceae to investigate the evolution of the ivesioid clade. We have combined occurrence- and climate data from extant species, and used ancestral state reconstruction to model past climate preferences. These models have been projected into paleo-climatic scenarios in order to identify areas where the ivesioids may have occurred. Our analysis suggests a split between the ivesioids and Potentilla sect. Rivales around Late Oligocene/Early Miocene (∼23 million years ago, Ma), and that the ivesioids then diversified at a time when summer drought started to appear in the region. The clade is inferred to have originated on the western slopes of the Rocky Mountains from where a westward range expansion to the Sierra Nevada and the coast of California took place between ∼12-2 Ma. Our results support the idea that climatic changes in southwestern North America have played an important role in the evolution of the local flora, by means of in situ adaptation followed by diversification.

  10. Past Climate Change and Plant Evolution in Western North America: A Case Study in Rosaceae

    PubMed Central

    Töpel, Mats; Antonelli, Alexandre; Yesson, Chris; Eriksen, Bente

    2012-01-01

    Species in the ivesioid clade of Potentilla (Rosaceae) are endemic to western North America, an area that underwent widespread aridification during the global temperature decrease following the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum. Several morphological features interpreted as adaptations to drought are found in the clade, and many species occupy extremely dry habitats. Recent phylogenetic analyses have shown that the sister group of this clade is Potentilla section Rivales, a group with distinct moist habitat preferences. This has led to the hypothesis that the ivesioids (genera Ivesia, Horkelia and Horkeliella) diversified in response to the late Tertiary aridification of western North America. We used phyloclimatic modeling and a fossil-calibrated dated phylogeny of the family Rosaceae to investigate the evolution of the ivesioid clade. We have combined occurrence- and climate data from extant species, and used ancestral state reconstruction to model past climate preferences. These models have been projected into paleo-climatic scenarios in order to identify areas where the ivesioids may have occurred. Our analysis suggests a split between the ivesioids and Potentilla sect. Rivales around Late Oligocene/Early Miocene (∼23 million years ago, Ma), and that the ivesioids then diversified at a time when summer drought started to appear in the region. The clade is inferred to have originated on the western slopes of the Rocky Mountains from where a westward range expansion to the Sierra Nevada and the coast of California took place between ∼12-2 Ma. Our results support the idea that climatic changes in southwestern North America have played an important role in the evolution of the local flora, by means of in situ adaptation followed by diversification. PMID:23236369

  11. Evaluation of the Canadian Rheumatology Association Choosing Wisely recommendation concerning anti-nuclear antibody (ANA) testing.

    PubMed

    Ferrari, Robert

    2015-09-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the Canadian Rheumatology Association Choosing Wisely recommendation concerning anti-nuclear antibody (ANA) testing. Patients with joint pain/stiffness/swelling were assessed to determine if ANA testing was indicated. An a priori threshold was set before ANA testing would be considered. Those who did not have ANA testing ordered were followed for 1 year to determine if any of them went on to have a diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) or other connective tissue disease. A parallel study was conducted with a similar a priori threshold for the use of rheumatoid factor (RF) and anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) antibody testing in the diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and again, patients were followed for 1 year. A total of 866 subjects were examined, 509 females (58.8 %) and 357 males (41.2 %). The mean age of the group was 47.5 ± 16.8 years. The mean duration of symptoms was 12.0 ± 5.6 weeks. Of the 866 subjects, 68 met an a priori threshold for ordering ANA, RF, and anti-CCP testing. Of these 68, there was a newly diagnosed case of SLE, 4 newly diagnosed cases of RA, and 3 cases of polymyalgia rheumatica. The remaining 798 subjects were followed for approximately 1 year and none developed evidence of SLE, RA, or other connective tissue disease. In the evaluation of non-specific musculoskeletal symptoms, setting an a priori threshold for ordering serology in keeping with the spirit of the Canadian Rheumatology Association Choosing Wisely recommendation for antibody testing results in a very low risk of missing a case of systemic lupus erythematosus or rheumatoid arthritis.

  12. Successful Treatment of a Case of Necrotizing Fasciitis due to Vibrio vulnificus in a Cold Climate in Japan.

    PubMed

    Kitamura, Chiho; Yamauchi, Yoichi; Yamaguchi, Tomoya; Aida, Yoshihisa; Ito, Katsunori; Ishizawa, Yoshiya; Saitoh, Kyoji; Kasai, Tomonori; Ohnishi, Motoki

    2016-01-01

    Vibrio vulnificus infection often occurs in warm regions, frequently leading to necrotizing fasciitis, sepsis, and death. We herein report a rare case presenting in a cold climate region in northern Japan, Aomori district, of a V. vulnificus infection complicated by necrotizing fasciitis and septic shock. The patient's prior history of injury and typical clinical course were helpful clues to the diagnosis of V. vulnificus infection, and early initiation of antimicrobial treatment saved his life. V. vulnificus infection should be considered even in cold regions, particularly if patients have risk factors.

  13. Climate predictors of the spatial distribution of human plague cases in the West Nile region of Uganda.

    PubMed

    MacMillan, Katherine; Monaghan, Andrew J; Apangu, Titus; Griffith, Kevin S; Mead, Paul S; Acayo, Sarah; Acidri, Rogers; Moore, Sean M; Mpanga, Joseph Tendo; Enscore, Russel E; Gage, Kenneth L; Eisen, Rebecca J

    2012-03-01

    East Africa has been identified as a region where vector-borne and zoonotic diseases are most likely to emerge or re-emerge and where morbidity and mortality from these diseases is significant. Understanding when and where humans are most likely to be exposed to vector-borne and zoonotic disease agents in this region can aid in targeting limited prevention and control resources. Often, spatial and temporal distributions of vectors and vector-borne disease agents are predictable based on climatic variables. However, because of coarse meteorological observation networks, appropriately scaled and accurate climate data are often lacking for Africa. Here, we use a recently developed 10-year gridded meteorological dataset from the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting Model to identify climatic variables predictive of the spatial distribution of human plague cases in the West Nile region of Uganda. Our logistic regression model revealed that within high elevation sites (above 1,300 m), plague risk was positively associated with rainfall during the months of February, October, and November and negatively associated with rainfall during the month of June. These findings suggest that areas that receive increased but not continuous rainfall provide ecologically conducive conditions for Yersinia pestis transmission in this region. This study serves as a foundation for similar modeling efforts of other vector-borne and zoonotic disease in regions with sparse observational meteorologic networks.

  14. Using climate response functions in analyzing electricity production variables. A case study from Norway.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tøfte, Lena S.; Martino, Sara; Mo, Birger

    2016-04-01

    This study analyses whether and to which extent today's hydropower system and reservoirs in Mid-Norway are able to balance new intermittent energy sources in the region, in both today's and tomorrow's climate. We also investigate if the electricity marked model EMPS gives us reasonable results also when run in a multi simulation mode without recalibration. Climate related energy (CRE) is influenced by the weather, the system for energy production and transport, and by market mechanisms. In the region of Mid-Norway, nearly all power demand is generated by hydro-electric facilities. Due to energy deficiency and limitations in the power grid the region experiences a deficit of electricity. The region is likely to experience considerable investments in wind power and small-scale hydropower and the transmission grid within and out of the region will probably be extended, so this situation might change. In addition climate change scenarios for the region agree on higher temperatures, more precipitation in total and a larger portion of the precipitation coming as rain instead of snow, as well as we expect slightly higher wind speed and more storms during the winter. Changing temperatures will also change the electricity demand. EMPS is a tool for forecasting and planning in electricity markets, developed for optimization and simulation of hydrothermal power systems with a considerable share of hydro power. It takes into account transport constraints and hydrological differences between major areas or regional subsystems. During optimization the objective is to minimize the expected cost in the whole system subject to all constraints. Incremental water values (marginal costs for hydropower) are computed for each area using stochastic dynamic programming. A heuristic approach is used to treat the interaction between areas. In the simulation part of the model total system costs are minimized week by week for each climate scenario in a linear problem formulation. A detailed

  15. Analyzing and modeling CRE in a changing climate and energy system - a case study from Mid-Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tøfte, Lena S.; Sauterleute, Julian F.; Kolberg, Sjur A.; Warland, Geir

    2014-05-01

    Climate related energy (CRE) is influenced by both weather, the system for energy transport and market mechanisms. In the COMPLEX-project, Mid-Norway is a case study where we analyze co-fluctuations between wind and hydropower resources; how co-fluctuations may change in the long-term; which effects this has on the power generation; and how the hydropower system can be operated optimally in this context. In the region Mid-Norway, nearly all power demand is generated by hydro-electric facilities, and the region experiences a deficit of electricity. This is both due to energy deficiency and limitations in the power grid system. In periods of low inflow and situations with high electricity demand (i.e. winter), power must be imported from neighboring regions. In future, this situation might change with the development of renewable energy sources. The region is likely to experience considerable investments in wind power and small-scale hydropower. In relation to the deployment of wind power and small-scale hydropower and security of supply, the transmission grid within and out of the region is extended. With increasing production of intermittent energy sources as wind and small-scale hydro, dependencies and co-fluctuations between rain and wind are to be analyzed due to spatial and temporal scale, in the present and a future climate. Climate change scenarios agree on higher temperatures, more precipitation in total and a larger portion of the precipitation coming as rain in this region, and the average wind speed as well as the frequency of storms along the coast is expected to increase slightly during the winter. Changing temperatures will also change the electricity needs, as electricity is the main source for heating in Norway. It's important to study if and to which extent today's hydropower system and reservoirs are able to balance new intermittent energy sources in the region, in both today's and tomorrow's climate. The case study includes down-scaling of climate

  16. Global climate change and effects on Pacific Northwest salmonids: An exploratory case study

    SciTech Connect

    Shankle, S.A.

    1990-09-01

    Recently, a number of papers have addressed global warming and freshwater fisheries. The recent report to Congress by the US Environmental Protection Agency included an analysis of potential effects of global warming on fisheries of the Great Lakes, California, and the Southeast. In California, the report stated that salinity increases in the San Francisco Bay could enhance the abundance of marine fish species, while anadromous species could be adversely affected. This paper discusses global climate changes and the effects on Pacific Northwest Salmonids. The impacts of climate change or Spring Chinook production in the Yakima Sub-basin was simulated using a computer modeling system developed for the Northwest Power planning council. 35 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  17. Engaging High School Students in Climate Change Research:A Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parish, E. S.; Ganguly, A. R.; Brunson, A.; Shi, B.; Roadinger, E.

    2008-05-01

    During the 2007-2008 academic year, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Geographic Information Systems and Technology (GIST) Group had the opportunity to mentor three high school students from the newly formed Tennessee Governor's Academy. Each of the three students was interested in a different aspect of climate change research: Aly wanted to gain a better understanding of how scientists can be confident that the current global warming is anthropogenically-induced. Bob wished to explore possible links between deforestation and changes in temperature. Elizabeth was interested in the ways in which climate change might impact mortality rates. Using simple software (Excel, Access and ArcView 3.2) and freely available data, including Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) temperature data, National Land Cover Data (NLCD), US Census data, and social vulnerability indices (SOVI) produced by Susan Cutter et al., we were able to help each student conduct a short-term research project in his/her area of interest.

  18. Model robustness as a confirmatory virtue: The case of climate science.

    PubMed

    Lloyd, Elisabeth A

    2015-02-01

    I propose a distinct type of robustness, which I suggest can support a confirmatory role in scientific reasoning, contrary to the usual philosophical claims. In model robustness, repeated production of the empirically successful model prediction or retrodiction against a background of independently-supported and varying model constructions, within a group of models containing a shared causal factor, may suggest how confident we can be in the causal factor and predictions/retrodictions, especially once supported by a variety of evidence framework. I present climate models of greenhouse gas global warming of the 20th Century as an example, and emphasize climate scientists' discussions of robust models and causal aspects. The account is intended as applicable to a broad array of sciences that use complex modeling techniques.

  19. Systems Science, Catastrophe Theory, and Sub-regional Climate Change: 5 Case Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vickrey, G.

    2015-12-01

    We have performed 5 studies utilizing catastrophe theory to analyze several anthropogenic and broader biological factors in order to ascertain current and future climate changes for sub-regions generally characterized by the following: Appalachian Tennessee; South Southeastern Alaska; Sierra Nevada California; Ohio River Basin; North Central Illinois. Research to date has demonstrated a direct correlation to IPCC and external data sources; an ability to refine feedback predictions; and accuracy through modeling past-to-present structures. Further verification of process is being pursued. Should the data continue to register as verifiable, the finery will enable accurate analysis of current and future climate conditions in various sub-regions, with the model being replicable and distributable globally through web mechanisms for localized use. Analysis may then be employed as a driver for sub-regional mitigation and adaptation policy-making and programs.

  20. Jovian Trojans: Orbital structures versus the WISE data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozehnal, Jakub; Broz, M.

    2013-10-01

    In this work, we study the relation between orbital characteristics of Jovian Trojans and their albedos and diameters as measured by the WISE/NEOWISE mission (Grav et al. 2011, 2012). In our previous work (Broz & Rozehnal 2011), we concluded that there is only one collisional family with parent body size larger than 100 km among Trojans, namely the Eurybates. This finding was based on the analysis of the observed size distributions, colour data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and simulations of orbital evolution. The WISE albedos serve as an independent source of information which allows us to verify our previous results. We also update our database of suitable resonant elements (i.e. the libration amplidude D, eccentricity e, inclination I) of Trojans and we look for new (to-be-discovered) clusters by the Hierarchical Clustering Method. Using the WISE diameters, we can construct more precise size-frequency distributions of Trojans in both the leading/trailing clouds which we compare to SFD of the cluster(s) mentioned above. We then prepare a collisional model (based on the Boulder code, Morbidelli et al. 2009). Initial conditions of our model are based on an assumption that the Trojans were captured from a destabilised transplanetary disc while Jupiter jumped during its close encounter with a Neptune-mass planet - the so-called "jump capture" (Nesvorny et al. 2013). Within the framework of this model we try to constrain the age of the Eurybates family. The work of MB was supported by grant GACR 13-013085 of the Czech Science Foundation and the Research Programme MSM0021620860 of the Czech Ministry of Education.

  1. WISE/NEOWISE OBSERVATIONS OF THE JOVIAN TROJAN POPULATION: TAXONOMY

    SciTech Connect

    Grav, T.; Mainzer, A. K.; Bauer, J. M.; Masiero, J. R.; Nugent, C. R.

    2012-11-01

    We present updated/new thermal model fits for 478 Jovian Trojan asteroids observed with the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). Using the fact that the two shortest bands used by WISE, centered on 3.4 and 4.6 {mu}m, are dominated by reflected light, we derive albedos of a significant fraction of these objects in these bands. While the visible albedos of both the C-, P-, and D-type asteroids are strikingly similar, the WISE data reveal that the albedo at 3.4 {mu}m is different between C-/P- and D-types. The albedo at 3.4 {mu}m can thus be used to classify the objects, with C-/P-types having values less than 10% and D-types have values larger than 10%. Classifying all objects larger than 50 km shows that the D-type objects dominate both the leading cloud (L {sub 4}), with a fraction of 84%, and trailing cloud (L {sub 5}), with a fraction of 71%-80%. The two clouds thus have very similar taxonomic distribution for these large objects, but the leading cloud has a larger number of these large objects, L {sub 4}/L {sub 5} = 1.34. The taxonomic distribution of the Jovian Trojans is found to be different from that of the large Hildas, which is dominated by C- and P-type objects. At smaller sizes, the fraction of D-type Hildas starts increasing, showing more similarities with the Jovian Trojans. If this similarity is confirmed through deeper surveys, it could hold important clues to the formation and evolution of the two populations. The Jovian Trojans does have similar taxonomic distribution to that of the Jovian irregular satellites, but lacks the ultra red surfaces found among the Saturnian irregular satellites and Centaur population.

  2. Effect of Climate-Induced Change in Crop Yields on Emigration: The Case of Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oppenheimer, M.; Krueger, A. B.; Feng, S.

    2009-05-01

    Researchers have suggested several channels through which future global warming could trigger mass migration across country borders. This paper examines one of them by focusing on the effect of climate- induced crop failures on out-migration. Using data from Mexico, we identify and estimate elasticity of emigration with respect to changes in crop yield, which sheds light on the possible magnitudes of migrant flows for other areas of the world under different climate change scenarios. We choose Mexico as the study object as it is by far the largest migrant-sending country, with an estimated number of emigrants living in the United States to be well over 10 million. In addition, over 20% of Mexico population directly relies on the agricultural sector, which is heavily dependent on climate. For example, the prolonged drought from 1996 to 1998 in northern Mexico resulted in mass crop failures and the death of livestock. Historically, farmers have been using emigration as an adaptation strategy to cope with crop yield reductions. We first examine the relationship between corn yields and climate variables for the period of 1980-2000, using state-level data. We find significant positive effects of annual precipitation and annual average temperature, but a negative effect of summer temperature on corn yields. The effects of both annual and summer temperatures are also nonlinear. Our analyses of other crops such as wheat yield very similar results. Using Mexico Census micro data, we calculate the number of emigrants from each state for the periods of 1990-1995 and 1995-2000. We then regress changes in the number of emigrants on changes in crop yields, instrumented by changes in temperatures and precipitation. Our preferred specification gives an elasticity of -4, which suggests that a 25% reduction in crop yields would double the number of emigrants. The null hypothesis of no effect is rejected at the 5% significance level.

  3. The Impacts of Climate-Change on Estuarine Flooding: a Pacific Northwest Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, K. A.; Cheng, T.; Hill, D. F.; Beamer, J. P.; Garcia-Medina, G.

    2014-12-01

    While understanding of climate change's impact on coastal systems has recently seen great improvements, there still remains much to be understood, especially for systems as hydraulically complex as estuaries. The hydrodynamic climate in estuarine waters is controlled by multiple factors such as boundary conditions offshore (tides, waves), across the surface (winds), at the upper estuary margin (streamflow), as well as mean sea level. On the decadal to century scale, climate change modulated variability in these forcings will effect state of the overall system resulting in changes to experienced extreme water level events. A study of climate change impacts on two Pacific Northwest estuaries is presently underway. ADCIRC-SWAN is being used to conduct multi-decadal simulations of water levels across the study estuaries. A GCM-RCM configuration was selected from the NARCCAP project and then bias-corrected against the observation-based NARR data. This was separated into two data streams (historical and future) which were then run through a set of models in order to develop forcing for ADCIRC-SWAN. At the open ocean boundary, the model is forced with wave output from the WaveWatch III model. The free surface of the model is forced with surface winds and pressure. The streamflow boundaries are forced with hydrographs obtained from the Micromet - Snowmodel - Hydroflow suite of runoff routing models. The ADCIRC-SWAN output provides time series data on total water levels (TWLs) throughout the model domain. These time series can be used to construct CDFs of water elevation at any site of interest and also to derive return periods for extreme water level events. Of particular interest to this study is how these products change from the historical to future runs and which processes (changing offshore waves, changing streamflow) are primarily responsible for the observed changes in flooding characteristics.

  4. Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

    PubMed

    Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

    2015-07-01

    The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of

  5. Climatic variability, plasticity, and dispersal: A case study from Lake Tana, Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Grove, Matt; Lamb, Henry; Roberts, Helen; Davies, Sarah; Marshall, Mike; Bates, Richard; Huws, Dei

    2015-10-01

    The numerous dispersal events that have occurred during the prehistory of hominin lineages are the subject of longstanding and increasingly active debate in evolutionary anthropology. As well as research into the dating and geographic extent of such dispersals, there is an increasing focus on the factors that may have been responsible for dispersal. The growing body of detailed regional palaeoclimatic data is invaluable in demonstrating the often close relationship between changes in prehistoric environments and the movements of hominin populations. The scenarios constructed from such data are often overly simplistic, however, concentrating on the dynamics of cyclical contraction and expansion during severe and ameliorated conditions respectively. This contribution proposes a two-stage hypothesis of hominin dispersal in which populations (1) accumulate high levels of climatic tolerance during highly variable climatic phases, and (2) express such heightened tolerance via dispersal in subsequent low-variability phases. Likely dispersal phases are thus proposed to occur during stable climatic phases that immediately follow phases of high climatic variability. Employing high resolution palaeoclimatic data from Lake Tana, Ethiopia, the hypothesis is examined in relation to the early dispersal of Homo sapiens out of East Africa and into the Levant. A dispersal phase is identified in the Lake Tana record between c. 112,550 and c. 96,975 years ago, a date bracket that accords well with the dating evidence for H. sapiens occupation at the sites of Qafzeh and Skhul. Results are discussed in relation to the complex pattern of H. sapiens dispersal out of East Africa, with particular attention paid to the implications of recent genetic chronologies for the origin of non-African modern humans.

  6. Study of climate change impact in Himalayan Water Resource: a case study of Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joshi, H. P.

    2015-12-01

    Himalayan region are regarded as water tower of Asia and has also covered high attention due to climate change owing to its glaciers melting. Water from those glaciers-fed basins are mostly utilized for hydropower, irrigation and drinking water supply to around 1.4 billion population downstream. The basin system, particularly in Nepal, is divided into three categories: (i) snow and glaciers fed: Koshi, Gandaki, Karnali and Mahakali basins (ii) from Mahabharat range: Babai, West Rapti, Bagmati, Kamala, Karnali, Mechi and (iii) Streams and rivulets from Chure hills: Surahinala, Badganga, Mohana etc. This study shows majority of flow (~78% of average flow) is from first category, 9% from second and 13% from third category. In the recent decades, especially during the dry season, rivers from third category have low runoff (or even zero)which leads to lack of water for irrigation and drinking water supply by lowering its water table.Interestingly, during monsoon season the whole region is facing high risks of flash floods and landslides due to unpredictable rainfall pattern. Increasing temperature trend (0.08˚Ca-1) and weakening precipitation rate (7.9±1.2 mm a-1) for last four decades shows indirect sign of climate change, though long time series in-situ observations are largely lacking in Nepal Himalaya. Our study supports high impact of climate change on potential generation of hydropower in Nepal which are more pronounced in coming decades.

  7. Distributional effects of climate change taxation: the case of the UK.

    PubMed

    Feng, Kuishuang; Hubacek, Klaus; Guan, Dabo; Contestabile, Monica; Minx, Jan; Barrett, John

    2010-05-15

    Current economic instruments aimed at climate change mitigation focus mainly on CO(2) emissions, but efficient climate mitigation needs to focus on other greenhouse gases as well as CO(2). This study investigates the distributional effects of climate change taxes on households belonging to different income and lifestyle groups; and it compares the effects of a CO(2) tax with a multiple GHG tax in the UK in terms of cost efficiency and distributional effects. Results show that a multi GHG tax is more efficient than a CO(2) tax due to lower marginal abatement costs, and that both taxes are regressive, with lower income households paying a relatively larger share of their income for the taxes than higher income households. A shift from a CO(2) tax to a GHG tax will reduce and shift the tax burden between consumption categories such as from energy-intensive products to food products. Consumers have different abilities to respond to the tax and change their behavior due to their own socio-economic attributes as well as the physical environment such as the age of the housing stock, location, and the availability of infrastructure. The housing-related carbon emissions are the largest component of the CO(2) tax payments for low income groups and arguments could be made for compensation of income losses and reduction of fuel poverty through further government intervention.

  8. INVESTIGATION OF EXISTING POLICIES CONTRIBUTION TO PROMOTING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION -A CASE STUDY IN TOKYO-

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hijioka, Yasuaki; Oka, Kazutaka; Takano, Saneyuki; Yoshikawa, Minoru; Ichihashi, Arata

    The impacts of global warming are already appearing in various regions of the world. Therefore, in addition to strongly promoting mitigation policies, it is an urgent need to study and implement adaptation policies from a long-term perspective in preparation for some possible negative impacts. The Japanese Government has long promoted various countermeasures for disaster prevention, environmental management, food production and protection of the nation's health. These counterm easures are considered to have potential effects asclimate change adaptation. This study investigated to what extent the existing policies for Tokyo can contribute to its climate change adaptation on the basis of comprehensively organizing targeted fields an dindicators in which adaptation policies should be taken. Research results indicated that the existing policies could be useful as climate change adaptation in many fields and indicators. Furthermore, the present problems were clarified accompanied with implementation of climate change adaptation at the municipalities' level, and solutions were proposed on how to use scientific knowledge to solve the problems.

  9. A 30+ Year AVHRR LAI and FAPAR Climate Data Record: Algorithm Description, Validation, and Case Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Claverie, Martin; Matthews, Jessica L.; Vermote, Eric F.; Justice, Christopher O.

    2016-01-01

    In- land surface models, which are used to evaluate the role of vegetation in the context ofglobal climate change and variability, LAI and FAPAR play a key role, specifically with respect to thecarbon and water cycles. The AVHRR-based LAIFAPAR dataset offers daily temporal resolution,an improvement over previous products. This climate data record is based on a carefully calibratedand corrected land surface reflectance dataset to provide a high-quality, consistent time-series suitablefor climate studies. It spans from mid-1981 to the present. Further, this operational dataset is availablein near real-time allowing use for monitoring purposes. The algorithm relies on artificial neuralnetworks calibrated using the MODIS LAI/FAPAR dataset. Evaluation based on cross-comparisonwith MODIS products and in situ data show the dataset is consistent and reliable with overalluncertainties of 1.03 and 0.15 for LAI and FAPAR, respectively. However, a clear saturation effect isobserved in the broadleaf forest biomes with high LAI (greater than 4.5) and FAPAR (greater than 0.8) values.

  10. Elaboration of climatic maps using GIS. Case study: Olãnesti drainage basin, Romania.

    PubMed

    Tîrlã, Laura

    2012-04-01

    Creating precise climatic maps (temperature and precipitation map especially) on small areas such as drainage basins or landform units is always very useful for ecology of plants, distribution of vegetation and also different types of agricultural land. The geographic information system (GIS) analysis of several key-factors (aspect and slope of terrain, insolation degree, thermal gradient, geology and structure of landforms) offers the necessary tools to operate with in order to create an accurate climatic map. This method was applied in order to create a map showing the distribution of temperatures in the Olanesti drainages basin, a 235 km2 area located at middle latitude, in Romania. After creating the DEM, aspect and slope of the terrain, reclassifying categories and calculating the thermal gradient, a map showing the distribution of the annual mean temperature is obtained. Other climatic parameters could be calculated for small areas too, with precise results. These demonstrate that not only elevation and mathematical location of an area are important factors in the distribution of temperature, but also the aspect, the gradient, the insolation, the type of rock and the structure.

  11. Divergence maintained by climatic selection despite recurrent gene flow: a case study of Castanopsis carlesii (Fagaceae).

    PubMed

    Sun, Ye; Surget-Groba, Yann; Gao, Shaoxiong

    2016-09-01

    Local adaptation to different environments has the potential to maintain divergence between populations despite recurrent gene flow and is an important driver for generating biological diversity. In this study, we investigate the role of adaptation in the maintenance of two parapatric varieties of a forest tree. We used sequence variation of chloroplastic DNA and restriction site-associated DNA to investigate the genetic structure of two varieties of Castanopsis carlesii in subtropical China and relate it to climatic variation. We used niche reconstruction methods to investigate niche differentiation between the two varieties and to estimate the past distribution of this species. A deep divergence was observed between the two varieties, but evidence of introgression and genetic admixture was detected in two phenotypically and geographically intermediate populations. Niche reconstruction suggests that the distribution of the two varieties was disjunct during periods of global cooling and that the two varieties occupy significantly different niches. The genetic structure was mainly driven by environmental factors, and 13 outlier loci under divergent selection were correlated with climatic variation. These results suggest that the two varieties evolved in allopatry and came back into secondary contact after the last glacial maximum and that they are an evolutionary example of divergence maintained by climatic selection despite recurrent gene flow.

  12. Climate change and its impact on water infrastructure: the case of Alcala de Henares (Spain) and Mexico City (Mexico)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naranjo, M.; Tortajada, C.

    2012-04-01

    Climate change and its possible impacts on precipitation are still a matter of controversy due to lack of data as well as models which are considered reliable. Even though the science of climate change has advanced significantly in recent years, many uncertainties still prevail, ranging from reliable prediction of extreme river flow events to downscaling of rainfall to smaller planning areas. That is, present knowledge is still insufficient to understand and accurately predict how global changes, climate change one of them, may affect precipitation and streamflows over specific geographical units. In terms of planning and investment in urban areas, where more than 50 percent of the population live at present, freshwater supply and flood risk management have to be considered on long-term basis. This includes development of water infrastructure for drinking water supply and drainage as well as flood control which responds to the needs of the growing populations and their economies. Impacts of climate change are slow over time and take place over thousands of years. However, their study is relatively recent, mostly in terms of impacts on the hydrological cycle and therefore in terms of run-off. In the case of urban centres, the rationale is that governments will have to adapt the water infrastructure according to the expected changes and thus have to plan for them. For example, in the case of Mexico City, the way the drainage system was designed 100 years ago is very different from the way it would be done at present and the way it would be planned in about 50 years time. In the case of the city of Alcalá de Henares in the region of Madrid, the analysis of precipitations has shown a slight tendency towards a wet period from the decade of the 60´s. Due to this tendency, the calculations for the design of water infrastructures have remained virtually unchanged. In the case of this specific city, there is no indication that there will be dramatic or rapid changes in

  13. Exponentially accurate approximations to piece-wise smooth periodic functions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greer, James; Banerjee, Saheb

    1995-01-01

    A family of simple, periodic basis functions with 'built-in' discontinuities are introduced, and their properties are analyzed and discussed. Some of their potential usefulness is illustrated in conjunction with the Fourier series representations of functions with discontinuities. In particular, it is demonstrated how they can be used to construct a sequence of approximations which converges exponentially in the maximum norm to a piece-wise smooth function. The theory is illustrated with several examples and the results are discussed in the context of other sequences of functions which can be used to approximate discontinuous functions.

  14. Climate change impacts on activated sludge wastewater treatment: a case study from Norway.

    PubMed

    Plósz, Benedek Gy; Liltved, Helge; Ratnaweera, Harsha

    2009-01-01

    We present an investigation on climate change effects on a wastewater treatment system that receive sewage collected in a combined sewer system in Oslo, Norway, during winter operation. Results obtained, by contrasting meteorological data with sewage data, show that wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent flow rates are significantly increased during temporary snow melting periods above a critical daily air mean temperature of approx. -1.5 degrees C degree (T(Crit)) identified in the area. In order to assess melting patterns, the number of days above and below T(Crit) was assessed, and the annual number of melting periods was additionally evaluated using meteorological data obtained in the last decade. A striking thing about the daily air temperature pattern is that, despite the progressively warmer winter temperatures in the last decade, an increasing number of days with temperatures below -1.5 degrees C could be observed. The frequency of melting periods is shown to increase in wintertime, and it is identified as an additional climate change related factor in the Oslo region. We demonstrate that these impacts can deteriorate the WWTP operation through progressively increasing the relative frequencies of very high influent flow rate and of the very low influent sewage temperature. Such climate change related effects on sewage treatment processes can be characterised as shock-conditions, i.e. significant changes in a system's boundary conditions, occurring in a relatively short period of time. In the six year period examined, biological nitrogen removal and secondary clarification processes are shown to be significantly affected by the climate factors. A striking thing about using the state-of-the-art mathematical models of wastewater treatment processes in decision support systems is their inability of describing, and thus predicting the effects of such shock-loading events, as they have not been studied so far. Adaptation and optimisation of process models

  15. Climate change and viticulture in Mediterranean climates: the complex response of socio-ecosystems. A comparative case study from France and Australia (1955-2040)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lereboullet, A.-L.; Beltrando, G.; Bardsley, D. K.

    2012-04-01

    The wine industry is very sensitive to extreme weather events, especially to temperatures above 35°C and drought. In a context of global climate change, Mediterranean climate regions are predicted to experience higher variability in rainfall and temperatures and an increased occurrence of extreme weather events. Some viticultural systems could be particularly at risk in those regions, considering their marginal position in the growth climatic range of Vitis vinifera, the long commercial lifespan of a vineyard, the high added-value of wine and the volatile nature of global markets. The wine industry, like other agricultural systems, is inserted in complex networks of climatic and non-climatic (other physical, economical, social and legislative) components, with constant feedbacks. We use a socio-ecosystem approach to analyse the adaptation of two Mediterranean viticultural systems to recent and future increase of extreme weather events. The present analysis focuses on two wine regions with a hot-summer Mediterranean climate (CSb type in the Köppen classification): Côtes-du-Roussillon in southern France and McLaren Vale in southern Australia. Using climate data from two synoptic weather stations, Perpignan (France) and Adelaide (Australia), with time series running from 1955 to 2010, we highlight changes in rainfall patterns and an increase in the number of days with Tx >35°c since the last three decades in both regions. Climate models (DRIAS project data for France and CSIRO Mk3.5 for Australia) project similar trends in the future. To date, very few projects have focused on an international comparison of the adaptive capacity of viticultural systems to climate change with a holistic approach. Here, the analysis of climate data was complemented by twenty in-depth semi-structured interviews with key actors of the two regional wine industries, in order to analyse adaptation strategies put in place regarding recent climate evolution. This mixed-methods approach

  16. WISE/NEOWISE OBSERVATIONS OF THE HILDA POPULATION: PRELIMINARY RESULTS

    SciTech Connect

    Grav, T.; Mainzer, A. K.; Bauer, J.; Masiero, J.; Eisenhardt, P. R.; Blauvelt, E.; DeBaun, E.; Elsbury, D.; Gautier, T.; Gomillion, S.; Hand, E.; Wilkins, A.; Spahr, T.; McMillan, R. S.; Walker, R.; Cutri, R.; Wright, E.

    2012-01-10

    We present the preliminary analysis of 1023 known asteroids in the Hilda region of the solar system observed by the NEOWISE component of the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). The sizes of the Hildas observed range from {approx}3 to 200 km. We find no size-albedo dependency as reported by other projects. The albedos of our sample are low, with a weighted mean value of p{sub V} = 0.055 {+-} 0.018, for all sizes sampled by the NEOWISE survey. We observed a significant fraction of the objects in the two known collisional families in the Hilda population. It is found that the Hilda collisional family is brighter, with a weighted mean albedo of p{sub V} = 0.061 {+-} 0.011, than the general population and dominated by D-type asteroids, while the Schubart collisional family is darker, with a weighted mean albedo of p{sub V} = 0.039 {+-} 0.013. Using the reflected sunlight in the two shortest WISE bandpasses, we are able to derive a method for taxonomic classification of {approx}10% of the Hildas detected in the NEOWISE survey. For the Hildas with diameter larger than 30 km, there are 67{sup +7}{sub -15}% D-type asteroids and 26{sup +17}{sub -5%} C-/P-type asteroids (with the majority of these being P-types).

  17. A WISE survey of circumstellar disks in Taurus

    SciTech Connect

    Esplin, T. L.; Luhman, K. L.; Mamajek, E. E.

    2014-04-01

    We have compiled photometry at 3.4, 4.6, 12, and 22 μm from the all-sky survey performed by the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) for all known members of the Taurus complex of dark clouds. Using these data and photometry from the Spitzer Space Telescope, we have identified members with infrared excess emission from circumstellar disks and have estimated the evolutionary stages of the detected disks, which include 31 new full disks and 16 new candidate transitional, evolved, evolved transitional, and debris disks. We have also used the WISE All-Sky Source Catalog to search for new disk-bearing members of Taurus based on their red infrared colors. Through optical and near-infrared spectroscopy, we have confirmed 26 new members with spectral types of M1-M7. The census of disk-bearing stars in Taurus should now be largely complete for spectral types earlier than ∼M8 (M ≳ 0.03 M {sub ☉}).

  18. Characterization of WISE Debris Disk Stars - 2013B

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Padgett, Deborah; Liu, Wilson; Morales, Farisa; Stapelfeldt, Karl

    2013-08-01

    We propose to acquire low dispersion spectra with the SOAR Goodman Spectrograph of new debris disk stars identified from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE survey of the entire sky. Despite many targeted surveys for stellar disks in the solar neighborhood by Spitzer Space Telescope, the census of disks remains incomplete at mid-IR sensitivity levels better than the IRAS limits. The improved sensitivity and spatial resolution of the all-sky WISE survey for debris disks (Padgett et al., submitted) has recently improved this situation, identifying Hipparcos and Tycho stars with mid-infrared excess out to distances of 120 pc. With the SOAR spectrograph we will characterize the new candidate debris disk stars in the southern sky, providing a uniform set of stellar classifications and information on a range of spectroscopic activity indicators related to stellar age. These data will help to constrain the stellar properties of an important new set of solar neighbors with evidence of planetary systems.

  19. Climatic gradient and δ13C values of plants: A case study from the Himalaya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirave, Pranav; Sanyal, Prasanta

    2016-04-01

    Change in atmospheric conditions is believed to be responsible for the evolution of plants. In an evolving atmosphere, gymnosperms appeared during the Carboniferous Period and appearance and diversification of angiosperms occurred during the Cretaceous time. In a symbiotic environment, difference in the response of these plant types to the climatic factors can be studied for parallel correlation. To monitor plants response with the changing climatic factors, variations in plants δ13Cleaf value can be used as one of the indicators. To investigate the variation in δ13Cleaf values in response to water availability, air temperature and a change in pCO2 pressure with elevation, five gymnosperm (Cedrus deodara, Pinus wallichiana, Pinus roxburghii, Pinus gerardiana and Abies pindrow) and two angiosperm (Betula utilis and Eucalyptus globulus) species were collected along an altitude gradient in the Himalayan mountain ranges. The studied sites cover ca. 3.5 km elevation transect. The δ13Cleaf value for Cedrus Deodara changes with altitude and mean annual precipitation (MAP). A sensitivity of 2.9 ‰ km-1 and 0.3 ‰ /100 mm was calculated for the altitude range of 1.5 km and precipitation range of 700 mm respectively. Although Pinus wallichiana do not show a correlation between elevation and δ13Cleaf value, a negative correlation between MAP and δ13Cleaf value with an average sensitivity of 0.2 ‰ /100 mm for the precipitation range of 900 mm is obtained. Comparison of results acquired from both gymnosperm and angiosperm species shows that gymnosperms are comparatively more sensitive to the climatic factors than angiosperms growing in a similar environmental setting.

  20. Implementation of Future Climate Satellite Cloud Algorithms: Case of the GCOM-C/SGLI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dim, J. R.; Murakami, H.; Nakajima, T. Y.; Takamura, T.

    2012-12-01

    The Global Change Observation Mission-Climate/Second Generation GLobal Imager (GCOM-C/SGLI) is a future Earth observation satellite to be launched in 2015. Its major objective is the monitoring of long-term climate changes. A major factor of these changes is the cloud impact. A new cloud algorithm adapted to the spectral characteristics of the GCOM-C/SGLI and the products derived are currently tested. The tests consist of evaluating the performance of the cloud optical thickness (COT) and the cloud particle effective radius (CLER) against simulation data, and equivalent products derived from a compatible satellite, the Terra/MODerate resolution Image Spectrometer (Terra/MODIS). In addition to these tests, the sensitivity of the products derived from this algorithm, to external and internal cloud related parameters, is analyzed. The base-map of the initial data input for this algorithm is made of geometrically corrected radiances of the Advanced Earth Observation Satellite II/GLobal Imager (ADEOS-II/GLI) and the GCOM-C/SGLI simulated radiances. The results of these performance tests, based on timely matching products, show that the GCOM-C/SGLI algorithm performs relatively well for averagely overcast scenes, with an agreement rate of ±20% with the satellite simulation products and the Terra/MODIS COT and CLER. A negative bias is however frequently observed, with the GCOM-C/SGLI retrieved parameters showing higher values at high COT levels. The algorithm also seems less reactive to thin and small particles' clouds mainly in land areas, compared to Terra/MODIS data and the satellite simulation products. Sensitivity to varying ground albedo, cloud phase, cloud structure and cloud location are analyzed to understand the influence of these parameters on the results obtained. Possible consequences of these influences on long-term climate variations and the bases for the improvement of the present algorithm in various cloud types' conditions are discussed.

  1. Water stress, energy security and adaptation under changing climate: case study of Zeravshan river

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khujanazarov, T.; Namura, R.; Touge, Y.; Tanaka, K.; Toderich, K.

    2014-12-01

    Zeravshan a transboundary river in Central Asia is a snow-glacier fed river originating in Tajikistan that use only 4% of its resources, further flows to Uzbekistan who fully utilize river resources for irrigation. Such disparity in river usage causes Tajikistan to consider heavy investments in hydropower dams that will increase social and political tension between counterparts. Traditional irrigation under arid climate causes high rates of water losses in infiltration and evapotranspiration leading to land. Water stress analysis and water resources distribution under climate change and possible adaptation measures were investigated. The framework includes model to analyze available water resources and assessment of the basin efficiency including dam operation and irrigation demand, based on it adaptation measures were suggested. Comparison of the increasing irrigation efficiency in downstream to the 10% rate can decrease water requirements on early stages, however there are still large deficiency of the water resources in the peak irrigation season. Dam operation to benefit irrigation has positive impact while can't compensate the needs of energy in winter months. Cooperation of the both sides are required to address such changes in river flow as interest lies on opposite side. Increasing irrigation efficiency through using return marginal waters and salt tolerant crops under water stress were suggested. The plants were tested on several sites in the downstream of the river using mineralized return waters. The results suggest that using such plants can provide additional outcome for the local community while decreasing demand of the water resources and improving soil conditions. Combination of dam operation for energy production and increasing irrigation efficiency additionally by using return waters can provide a beneficial scenario for the region under future climate change. However, it will require strong political will to address energy swap to achieve nexus

  2. WISE Discovery of Hyper Luminous Galaxies at z=2-4 and Their Implications for Galaxy and AGN Evolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tsai, Chao Wei; Eisenhardt, Peter; Wu, Jingwen; Bridge, Carrie; Assef, Roberto; Benford, Dominic; Blain, Andrew; Cutri, Roc; Griffith, Robert L.; Jarrett, Thomas; Lonsdale, Carol; Petty, Sara; Sayers, Jack; Stanford, Adam; Stern, Daniel; Wright, Edward L.; Yan, Lin

    2014-01-01

    On behalf of the WISE Science team, we present the discovery of a class of distant dust-enshrouded galaxies with extremely high luminosity. These galaxies are selected to have extreme red colors in the mid-IR using NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). They are faint in the optical and near-IR, predominantly at zeta = 2-4, and with IR luminosity > 10(exp 13) Solar Luminosity, making them Hyper-Luminous Infrared Galaxies (HyLIRGs). SEDs incorporating the WISE, Spitzer, and Herschel PACS and SPIRE photometry indicate hot dust dominates the bolometric luminosity, presumably powered by AGN. Preliminary multi-wavelength follow-up suggests that they are different from normal populations in the local M-sigma relation. Their low source density implies that these objects are either intrinsically rare, or a short-lived phase in a more numerous population. If the latter is the case, these hot, dust-enshrouded galaxies may be an early stage in the interplay between AGN and galaxies.

  3. Zoning vulnerability of climate change in variation of amount and trend of precipitation - Case Study: Great Khorasan province

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Modiri, Ehsan; Modiri, Sadegh

    2015-04-01

    Climatic hazards have complex nature that many of them are beyond human control. Earth's climate is constantly fluctuating and trying to balance itself. More than 75% of Iran has arid and semi-arid climate thus assessment of climate change induced threats and vulnerabilities is essential. In order to investigate the reason for the changes in amount and trend of precipitation parameter, 17 synoptic stations have been selected in the interval of the establishment time of the station until 2013. These stations are located in three regions: Northern, Razavi and Southern Khorasan. For quality control of data in Monthly, quarterly and annual total precipitation of data were tested and checked by run test. Then probable trends in each of the areas was assessed by Kendall-tau test. Total annual precipitation of each station is the important factor that increase the sensitivity of vulnerability in the area with low rainfall. Annual amount of precipitation moving from north to south has been declining, though in different fields that they have different geomorphologic characteristics controversies occur. But clearly can be observed average of precipitation decline with decreasing latitude. There were positive trends in the annual precipitation in 6 stations, negative trends in 10 stations, as well as one station, has no trend. The remarkable notice is that all stations have a positive trend were in the northern region in the case study. These stations had been in ranging from none to Moderate classification of threats and vulnerability. After the initialization parameters to classify levels of risks and vulnerability, the two measures of mean annual precipitation and the trends of this fluctuation were combined together. This classification was created in five level for stations. Accordingly Golmakan, Ghochan, Torbate heydarieh, Bojnord and Mashhad were in none threat level. Khoor of Birjand and Boshruyeh have had complete stage of the threat level and had the greatest

  4. Co-Adapting Water Demand and Supply to Changing Climate in Agricultural Water Systems, A Case Study in Northern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giuliani, M.; Li, Y.; Mainardi, M.; Arias Munoz, C.; Castelletti, A.; Gandolfi, C.

    2013-12-01

    Exponentially growing water demands and increasing uncertainties in the hydrologic cycle due to changes in climate and land use will challenge water resources planning and management in the next decade. Improving agricultural productivity is particularly critical, being this sector the one characterized by the highest water demand. Moreover, to meet projected growth in human population and per-capita food demand, agricultural production will have to significantly increase in the next decades, even though water availability is expected to decrease due to climate change impacts. Agricultural systems are called to adapt their strategies (e.g., changing crop patterns and the corresponding water demand, or maximizing the efficiency in the water supply modifying irrigation scheduling and adopting high efficiency irrigation techniques) in order to re-optimize the use of limited water resources. Although many studies have assessed climate change impacts on agricultural practices and water management, most of them assume few scenarios of water demand or water supply separately, while an analysis of their reciprocal feedbacks is still missing. Moreover, current practices are generally established according to historical agreements and normative constraints and, in the absence of dramatic failures, the shift toward more efficient water management is not easily achievable. In this work, we propose to activate an information loop between farmers and water managers to improve the effectiveness of agricultural water management practices by matching the needs of the farmers with the design of water supply strategies. The proposed approach is tested on a real-world case study, namely the Lake Como serving the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district (Italy). A distributed-parameter, dynamic model of the system allows to simulate crop growth and the final yield over a range of hydro-climatic conditions, irrigation strategies and water-related stresses. The spatial component of the

  5. Actionable Science in Practice: Co-Producing Climate Change Information for Water Utility Vulnerability Assessments. Four Case Studies from the Water Utility Climate Alliance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaatz, L.; Behar, D. H.; Fleming, P.; Asefa, T.; Heyn, K.; Brooks, K.; Cohn, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) project featured four water utilities - New York, Tampa Bay, Seattle, and Portland - from the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA) who worked in collaboration with local climate science consortiums to hand-pick or develop locally appropriate tools, projections, and approaches to understand the impact of climate change on drinking water supplies. These utilities pursued customized approaches based on specific utility needs and learned important lessons in conducting assessments that may be of interest to the wider adaptation community. In addition, these projects are examples of succesfull environments in which utility managers worked collaboratively and iteratively with climate scientists to understand both utility concerns and the ability or limitations of today's climate science to respond to those concerns. Broader lessons that cut across the pilots are presented in a closing chapter.

  6. Scaling Astro-WISE to LOFAR long term archive. From KIDS to LOFAR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Begeman, K.; Belikov, A. N.; Boxhoorn, D.; Dijkstra, F.; Holties, H. A.; Renting, G. A.; Vermaas, N.; Vriend, W.-J.

    2013-01-01

    The Astro-WISE information system was developed to handle data processing for the KIDS survey. In this paper we describe the adaptation of the WISE concept to allow scaling to support archives containing tens of petabytes of stored data and the changes we introduced to accommodate the system for the LOFAR Long Term Archive. With this we provide an example of how Astro-WISE technology can be adapted to support a wider range and scale of data.

  7. On the relationship between personal experience, affect and risk perception: The case of climate change

    PubMed Central

    van der Linden, Sander

    2014-01-01

    Examining the conceptual relationship between personal experience, affect, and risk perception is crucial in improving our understanding of how emotional and cognitive process mechanisms shape public perceptions of climate change. This study is the first to investigate the interrelated nature of these variables by contrasting three prominent social-psychological theories. In the first model, affect is viewed as a fast and associative information processing heuristic that guides perceptions of risk. In the second model, affect is seen as flowing from cognitive appraisals (i.e., affect is thought of as a post-cognitive process). Lastly, a third, dual-process model is advanced that integrates aspects from both theoretical perspectives. Four structural equation models were tested on a national sample (N = 808) of British respondents. Results initially provide support for the “cognitive” model, where personal experience with extreme weather is best conceptualized as a predictor of climate change risk perception and, in turn, risk perception a predictor of affect. Yet, closer examination strongly indicates that at the same time, risk perception and affect reciprocally influence each other in a stable feedback system. It is therefore concluded that both theoretical claims are valid and that a dual-process perspective provides a superior fit to the data. Implications for theory and risk communication are discussed. © 2014 The Authors. European Journal of Social Psychology published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25678723

  8. Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Saskatchewan: Case Study of the Rural Municipality of Rudy No. 284

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pittman, Jeremy; Wittrock, Virginia; Kulshreshtha, Surendra; Wheaton, Elaine

    2011-01-01

    With the likelihood of future changes in climate and climate variability, it is important to understand how human systems may be vulnerable. Rural communities in Saskatchewan having agricultural-based economies are particularly dependent on climate and could be among the most vulnerable human systems in Canada. Future changes in climate are likely…

  9. The WISE (Waste-free, Intrinsically Safe, and Efficient) Nuclear Plant Concept

    SciTech Connect

    Slessarev, Igor; Palmiotti, G.; Salvatores, M.; Berthou, V.

    2002-07-01

    A new concept WISE (Waste-free, Intrinsically Safe, and Efficient) for a 'clean' nuclear plant is proposed. WISE does not perturb the radiological equilibrium minimizing TRU and LLFP wastes. WISE is based on mobile fuel systems and on a feed-and-bleed fuel cycle strategy. Irradiated fuel together with fission products always remains inside of WISE core. This implies no release of waste until fuel reserves are available. After the fuel reserves are exhausted, an on-line reprocessing technology can be applied in order to minimize waste. (authors)

  10. Climate change adaptation & mitigation strategies for Water-Energy-Land Nexus management in Mediterranean region: Case study of Catalunya (Spain).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Vikas; Schuhmacher, Marta

    2016-04-01

    water where it is a scarce resource. Linkage of water & Energy to the land has been established through irrigated agriculture which has seen an increasing trend in the case study area. A detail scenario planning for regional water-energy demand and supply in conjunction with different climate change and economic growth scenarios are considered. For each future scenario of climate change, the goal is to obtain a ranking of a set of possible actions with regards to different types of indicators (costs, environmental etc.). The analytical method used is based on outranking models for decision aid with hierarchical structures of criteria and ranking alternatives using partial preorders based on pairwise preference relations. The proposed method has several advantages such as the management of heterogeneous scales of measurement without requiring any artificial transformation and the management of uncertainty by means of comparisons at a qualitative level in terms of the decision maker preferences. Result shows that such an integrated ("nexus") approach is likely to build resilience and reduces vulnerability to the combination of pressures acting upon the Mediterranean region's water systems, including climate-related shocks.

  11. Using Peatland Archives to Assess Climate Forcing of Holocene Vegetational Changes: Case Studies From the Great Lakes Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson, S. T.; Booth, R. K.; Andersen, J.; Hotchkiss, S.; Huang, Y.; Lesser, M.; Minckley, T.; Nichols, J.; Pendall, E.; Reeves, K.; Taylor, M.

    2006-12-01

    A dilemma has long confronted paleoecologists: pollen data are required to assess past vegetational changes, and at the same time pollen data serve as a primary source of paleoclimate inference. Paleoecologists have had to use the same data sets to infer past climate changes and the ecological responses to those changes. The emergence of independent paleoclimate proxies and archives is providing relief from this dilemma. Peatland archives are especially effective at providing independent paleoclimatic records, owing to their sensitivity to climate variation, their subcentennial to subdecadal temporal precision, and the multiplicity of available proxies. Pollen records can be obtained from the same stratigraphic levels as paleoclimate proxies, and peatland records can also be compared with lake-based pollen and macrofossil records at regional scales. Peatland records of mid- to late Holocene climate change and variability, together with pollen and macrofossil records from peatlands and lakes in the Great Lakes region of North America, resolve some long-standing questions and controversies concerning the causation of vegetational changes in the region. We present three case studies where peatlands have played a pivotal role. 1. Hemlock populations plummeted across eastern North America 5400 yr BP. The extent, rapidity, and synchrony of the event suggested that it resulted from a widespread pathogen outbreak, similar to the early 20th Century chestnut blight in the same region. However, some have argued for climate as a primary mechanism. Paleohydrological records from a kettle bog in northeastern Lower Michigan indicate an abrupt decline in water-table depth 5400 yr BP that persisted for the next 2500 years, coincident with the hemlock decline. Pathogens may have played a proximal role, but an abrupt climate shift was the ultimate driver of the hemlock decline. 2. Holocene expansions of yellow birch and beech in their northwestern ranges were episodic, alternating

  12. Implications of climate change scenarios for agriculture in alpine regions--a case study in the Swiss Rhone catchment.

    PubMed

    Fuhrer, J; Smith, P; Gobiet, A

    2014-09-15

    Coping with climate change in agriculture requires knowledge of trends in agro-climatic conditions with a focus at the smaller scales where decisions are taken. As part of the EU FP7 ACQWA project, the situation was analyzed for agriculture in the case of the Swiss Rhone catchment (Valais) where cultivation of permanent crops (orchards and vineyards) and livestock production are the most important agro-economic activities. The aim of this study was to use daily data from four downscaled and bias corrected transient climate change scenarios to analyze changes in water and temperature related indices over the period 1951-2050 for three locations (Aigle, Sion, Montana) that are representative of different production zones in the catchment. The results indicate that most relevant implications are caused by projected changes in temperature and not in precipitation. They indicate an extension of the thermal growing season with potentially positive effects on pasture and livestock production, most pronounced at the mountain site (Montana), but a trend towards increasing risks of frost in permanent crops and in heat stress for livestock at the valley bottom (Aigle, Sion). The increase in water requirement for irrigation in 2021-2050 relative to 1981-2009 is moderate (4-16%, depending on location). However, in years with low amounts of snow and rain, in small catchments with a nival regime, reduced water supply by rivers could restrict the surface area of grassland that can be irrigated, particularly during springtime. It is concluded that coping with heat-related risks may be most needed at the lower cropland and pasture sites while water-related issues would become more relevant in more elevated locations where pasture-based livestock production is the dominant type of agricultural land use.

  13. Concerns About Climate Change Mitigation Projects: Summary of Findings from Case Studies in Brazil, India, Mexico, and South Africa

    SciTech Connect

    Sathaye, Jayant A.; Andrasko, Kenneth; Makundi, Willy; La Rovere, Emilio Lebre; Ravinandranath, N.H.; Melli, Anandi; Rangachari, Anita; Amaz, Mireya; Gay, Carlos; Friedmann, Rafael; Goldberg, Beth; van Horen, Clive; Simmonds, Gillina; Parker, Gretchen

    1998-11-01

    The concept of joint implementation as a way to implement climate change mitigation projects in another country has been controversial ever since its inception. Developing countries have raised numerous issues at the project-specific technical level, and broader concerns having to do with equity and burden sharing. This paper summarizes the findings of studies for Brazil, India, Mexico and South Africa, four countries that have large greenhouse gas emissions and are heavily engaged in the debate on climate change projects under the Kyoto Protocol. The studies examine potential or current projects/programs to determine whether eight technical concerns about joint implementation can be adequately addressed. They conclude that about half the concerns were minor or well managed by project developers, but concerns about additionality of funds, host country institutions and guarantees of performance (including the issues of baselines and possible leakage) need much more effort to be adequately addressed. All the papers agree on the need to develop institutional arrangements for approving and monitoring such projects in each of the countries represented. The case studies illustrate that these projects have the potential to bring new technology, investment, employment and ancillary socioeconomic and environmental benefits to developing countries. These benefits are consistent with the goal of sustainable development in the four study countries. At a policy level, the studies' authors note that in their view, the Annex I countries should consider limits on the use of jointly implemented projects as a way to get credits against their own emissions at home, and stress the importance of industrialized countries developing new technologies that will benefit all countries. The authors also observe that if all countries accepted caps on their emissions (with a longer time period allowed for developing countries to do so) project-based GHG mitigation would be significantly

  14. The WISE Survey of the Near-Earth Asteroids (NEOWISE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grav, Tommy; Mainzer, A. K.; Bauer, J. M.; Masiero, J. R.; Stevenson, R.; Carolyn, N.; McMillan, R. S.; Walker, R. G.; Spahr, T. B.; Wright, E. L.; WISE Team; NEOWISE Team

    2013-06-01

    The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) is a NASA Explorer class mission that has imaged the entire sky twice between January, 2010 and January, 2011 at four wavelengths spanning the near through mid-IR with sensitivities hundreds of times greater than previous surveys. Through a NASA funded project, called NEOWISE, we have systematically searched the WISE data for new and previously known asteroids, detecting over 158,000 objects (of which more than 30,000 were new discoveries). The NEOWISE project have resulted in a highly uniform survey of the near-Earth object (NEO) population at thermal infrared wavelengths ranging from 3 to 22 μm, allowing us to refine estimates of their numbers, sizes, and albedos. The survey detected NEOs the same way whether they were previously known or not, subject to the availability of ground-based follow-up observations, resulting in the discovery of more than 130 new NEOs. The survey's uniform sensitivity, observing cadence, and image quality have permitted extrapolation of the 429 near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) detected by NEOWISE during the fully cryogenic portion of the WISE mission to the larger population. An additional 88 NEAs were observed in the post-cryogenic phase of the mission, with 12 of these being discoveries. Using the dataset and debiasing the results, we find that there are 981 ± 19 NEAs larger than 1 km and 20,500±3000 NEAs larger than 100 m [3]. We show that the Spaceguard goal of detecting 90% of all 1 km NEAs has been met, and that the cumulative size distribution is best represented by a broken power law with a slope of 1.32±0.14 below 1.5 km. This power-law slope produces about 13,200±1900 NEAs with diameter larger than 140 m. The results show that the overall number for the NEA population between 100 and 1000 m is somewhat lower than previous estimates. We also present the results of an analysis of the sub-populations within the near-Earth asteroids, including the Atens, Apollos, Amors, and those

  15. WISE Identified Young Stellar Objects In BRC 38

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibbs, John; Rebull, L. M.; Laurence, W.; Marshall, R.; Murphy, M.; Orr, L.; Whitworth, C.; Burton, A.; Corris, T.; Goodey, S.; McGinnis, S.; Laurence, C.; Aschman, O.; Kikuchi, R.; Prather, J.; Whitley, L.; Billings, C.; Mader, C.

    2014-01-01

    Bright rimmed clouds (BRCs) are dense clumps of gas and dust within HII regions at the edges of molecular clouds; while the BRCs themselves are dark, their rims are optically bright from illumination by nearby O or B stars. Many BRCs show evidence of active star formation possibly triggered by the ionizing radiation from the nearby O or B stars. The large molecular cloud IC1396 is home to eleven BRCs thought to be driven by the O6.5V star HD206267. BRC 38 is located in the north of IC1396, at 21:40:42 +58:16:13. The immediate ~5'x5' region around BRC 38 has been extensively studied in many wavelengths from X-rays to infrared (IR), identifying ~100 young stellar objects (YSOs). We used data from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) to expand the search for YSOs to a 20 arcminute radius from the center of BRC 38. Starting with approximately 7000 sources identified in the WISE catalog, we used an updated version of the IR color selection scheme developed by Koenig et al. (2012) to identify ~40 objects having IR colors consistent with those of YSOs; some overlapping with the literature YSO candidates. Combining confirmed and candidate YSOs from literature with those we identified by color selection, we find 115 unique objects of interest. For each of these sources, we analyzed (a) the WISE, 2MASS, and Spitzer images to determine if they were point-like sources; (b) their IR colors to determine if they exhibited a clear IR excess; and (c) their spectral energy distributions (SEDs) to determine if they had an SED shape consistent with their identification as YSO candidates. Our work adds several new YSO candidates to the list of YSOs in and near BRC 38 and newly identifies IR excesses for many of the previously identified YSOs in the region. We looked for evidence of triggered star formation in BRC 38, but are limited in our conclusions by small-number statistics. Support is provided for this work by the NASA/IPAC Teacher Archive Research Program (NITARP

  16. Technology Solutions Case Study: High-Performance Ducts in Hot-Dry Climates

    SciTech Connect

    M. Hoeschele, A. German, E. Weitzel, R. Chitwood

    2015-08-01

    Ducts in conditioned space (DCS) represent a high priority measure for moving the next generation of new homes to the Zero Net Energy performance level. Various strategies exist for incorporating ducts within the conditioned thermal envelope. To support this activity, in 2013 the Pacific Gas & Electric Company initiated a project with Davis Energy Group (lead for the Building America team, Alliance for Residential Building Innovation) to solicit builder involvement in California to participate in field demonstrations of various DCS strategies. Builders were given incentives and design support in exchange for providing site access for construction observation, diagnostic testing, and builder survey feedback. Information from the project was designed to feed into California's 2016 Title 24 process, but also to serve as an initial mechanism to engage builders in more high performance construction strategies. This Building America project complemented information collected in the California project with BEopt simulations of DCS performance in hot/dry climate regions.

  17. Technology Solutions Case Study: Insulated Siding Retrofit in a Cold Climate

    SciTech Connect

    2015-05-01

    In this study, the U.S. Department of Energy’s team Building America Partner¬ship for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC) worked with Kinsley Construction Company to evaluate the real-world performance of insulated sid¬ing when applied to an existing home. A 1960s home was selected for analysis. It is located in a cold climate (zone 6) where the addition of insulated siding and a carefully detailed water-resistive barrier have the potential to offer significant benefits. In particular, the team quantified building airtightness and heating energy use as a function of outdoor temperatures before and after the installa¬tion of the insulated siding.

  18. Can Climate Information be relevant to decision making for Agriculture on the 1-10 year timescale? Case studies from southern Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujisawa, Mariko

    2016-04-01

    Climate forecasts have been developed to assist decision making in sectors averse to, and affected by, climate risks, and agriculture is one of those. In agriculture and food security, climate information is now used on a range of timescales, from days (weather), months (seasonal outlooks) to decades (climate change scenarios). Former researchers have shown that when seasonal climate forecast information was provided to farmers prior to decision making, farmers adapted by changing their choice of planting seeds and timing or area planted. However, it is not always clear that the end-users' needs for climate information are met and there might be a large gap between information supplied and needed. It has been pointed out that even when forecasts were available, they were often not utilized by farmers and extension services because of lack of trust in the forecast or the forecasts did not reach the targeted farmers. Many studies have focused on the use of either seasonal forecasts or longer term climate change prediction, but little research has been done on the medium term, that is, 1 to 10 year future climate information. The agriculture and food system sector is one potential user of medium term information, as land use policy and cropping systems selection may fall into this time scale and may affect farmers' decision making process. Assuming that reliable information is provided and it is utilized by farmers for decision making, it might contribute to resilient farming and indeed to longer term food security. To this end, we try to determine the effect of medium term climate information on farmers' strategic decision making process. We explored the end-users' needs for climate information and especially the possible role of medium term information in agricultural system, by conducting interview surveys with farmers and agricultural experts. In this study, the cases of apple production in South Africa, maize production in Malawi and rice production in Tanzania

  19. Impact of Urban Growth on Surface Climate: A Case Study in Oran, Algeria

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bounoua, Lahouari; Safia, Abdelmounaine; Masek, Jeffrey; Peters-Lidars, Christaq; Imhoff, Marc L.

    2008-01-01

    We develop a land use map discriminating urban surfaces from other cover types over a semiarid region in North Africa and use it in a land surface model to assess the impact of urbanized land on surface energy, water and carbon balances. Unlike in temperate climates where urbanization creates a marked heat island effect, this effect is not strongly marked in semiarid regions. During summer, the urban class results in an additional warming of 1.45 C during daytime and 0.81 C at night compared to that simulated for needleleaf trees under similar climate conditions. Seasonal temperatures show urban areas warmer than their surrounding during summer and slightly cooler in winter. The hydrological cycle is practically "shut down" during summer and characterized by relatively large amount of runoff in winter. We estimate the annual amount of carbon uptake to 1.94 million metric tons with only 11.9% assimilated during the rainy season. However, if urbanization expands to reach 50% of the total area excluding forests, the annual total carbon uptake will decline by 35% and the July mean temperature would increase only 0.10 C, compared to current situation. In contrast, if urbanization expands to 50% of the total land excluding forests and croplands but all short vegetation is replaced by native broadleaf deciduous trees, the annual carbon uptake would increase 39% and the July mean temperature would decrease by 0.9 C, compared to current configuration. These results provide guidelines for urban planners and land use managers and indicate possibilities for mitigating the urban heat.

  20. Lessons from the construction of a climate change adaptation plan: A Broads wetland case study.

    PubMed

    Turner, R Kerry; Palmieri, Maria Giovanna; Luisetti, Tiziana

    2016-10-01

    The dynamic nature of environmental change in coastal areas means that a flexible "learning by doing" management strategy has a number of advantages. This article lays out the principles of such a strategy and then assesses an actual planning and management process focused on climate change consequences for the Broads wetland on the East coast of England. The management strategy focused on the concept of ecosystem services (stocks and flows) provided by the coastal wetland and the threats and opportunities posed to the area by sea level rise and other climate change impacts. The analysis explores the process by which an adaptive management plan has been formulated and coproduced by a combination of centralized (vertical) and stakeholder social network (horizontal) arrangements. The process values where feasible the ecosystem services under threat and prioritizes response actions. Coastal management needs a careful balance between strategic requirements imposed at a national scale and local schemes that affect regional and/or local communities and social networks. These networks aided by electronic media have allowed groups to engage more rapidly and effectively with policy proposals. However, successful deliberation is conditioned by a range of context specific factors, including the type of social networks present and their relative competitive and/or complementary characteristics. The history of consultation and dialogue between official agencies and stakeholders also plays a part in contemporary deliberation processes and the success of their outcomes. Among the issues highlighted are the multiple dimensions of nature's value; the difficulty of quantifying some ecosystem service changes, especially for cultural services; and the problem of "stakeholder fatigue" complicating engagement arrangements. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:719-725. © 2016 SETAC.

  1. How rural land use management facilitates drought risk adaptation in a changing climate - A case study in arid northern China.

    PubMed

    Lei, Yongdeng; Zhang, Hailin; Chen, Fu; Zhang, Linbo

    2016-04-15

    Under a warming climate, frequent drought and water scarcity in northern China have severely disrupted agricultural production and posed a substantial threat to farmers' livelihoods. Based on first-hand data collected through in-depth interviews with local managers and farmer households, this study evaluated the effectiveness of rural land use management in mitigating drought risk, ensuring food security and improving farmers' livelihoods. Our findings indicate that a) reforestation on low-yield cropland not only can improve the eco-environment but can also prominently mitigate the production risk to local farmers; b) replacing the traditional border irrigation with sprinkler irrigation has substantially curbed agricultural water usage and increased the per unit of output; and c) in recent years, instead of planting water-intensive grain crops, local farmers cultivated more forage crops to raise animals, which greatly diversified their income sources and reduced the drought risk of agricultural production. By performing an empirical case study in drought-prone Inner Mongolia, this study provides decision-makers with insights into how to strategically adapt to drought risk and reduce rural poverty within the broader context of climate change.

  2. Ecological effects of climate change on salt marsh wildlife: a case study from a highly urbanized estuary

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thorne, Karen M.; Takekawa, John Y.; Elliott-Fisk, Deborah L.

    2012-01-01

    Coastal areas are high-risk zones subject to the impacts of global climate change, with significant increases in the frequencies of extreme weather and storm events, and sea-level rise forecast by 2100. These physical processes are expected to alter estuaries, resulting in loss of intertidal wetlands and their component wildlife species. In particular, impacts to salt marshes and their wildlife will vary both temporally and spatially and may be irreversible and severe. Synergistic effects caused by combining stressors with anthropogenic land-use patterns could create areas of significant biodiversity loss and extinction, especially in urbanized estuaries that are already heavily degraded. In this paper, we discuss current ideas, challenges, and concerns regarding the maintenance of salt marshes and their resident wildlife in light of future climate conditions. We suggest that many salt marsh habitats are already impaired and are located where upslope transgression is restricted, resulting in reduction and loss of these habitats in the future. In addition, we conclude that increased inundation frequency and water depth will have negative impacts on the demography of small or isolated wildlife meta-populations as well as their community interactions. We illustrate our points with a case study on the Pacific Coast of North America at San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge in California, an area that supports endangered wildlife species reliant on salt marshes for all aspects of their life histories.

  3. Projecting the range of potential future climate change as an aid in the assessment of the effectiveness of the Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier

    SciTech Connect

    Petersen, K.L.

    1993-10-01

    The Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program was organized to develop an in-place disposal capability for low-level nuclear waste for the US Department of Energy at the Hanford Site in south-eastern Washington. Layered earthen and engineered barriers are being developed by Westinghouse Hanford Company and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory that will function in what is presently a semiarid environment (annual precipitation 150 mm) for at least 1,000 yr by limiting the infiltration of water through the waste. The Long-Term Climate Change Task is one of several key barrier tasks. Based on the recommendation of a panel of internationally recognized climate and modeling experts, climatic data for this task is being acquired in a step-wise and multi-disciplinary manner. The specific research strategy includes literature review and specialized studies to obtain pollen-derived climatic reconstruction, documented historic weather patterns, and Global Circulation Model output of potential future climate changes related to both the greenhouse effect and the cycling into the next ice age. The specific goals of the task are to: (1) obtain defensible probabilistic projections of the long-term climate variability in the Hanford Site region at many different time scales into the future, (2) develop several test case climate scenarios that bracket the range of potential future climate, and (3) use the climate scenarios both to test and to model protective barrier performance.

  4. Predicting Local Dengue Transmission in Guangzhou, China, through the Influence of Imported Cases, Mosquito Density and Climate Variability

    PubMed Central

    Sang, Shaowei; Yin, Wenwu; Bi, Peng; Zhang, Honglong; Wang, Chenggang; Liu, Xiaobo; Chen, Bin; Yang, Weizhong; Liu, Qiyong

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Each year there are approximately 390 million dengue infections worldwide. Weather variables have a significant impact on the transmission of Dengue Fever (DF), a mosquito borne viral disease. DF in mainland China is characterized as an imported disease. Hence it is necessary to explore the roles of imported cases, mosquito density and climate variability in dengue transmission in China. The study was to identify the relationship between dengue occurrence and possible risk factors and to develop a predicting model for dengue’s control and prevention purpose. Methodology and Principal Findings Three traditional suburbs and one district with an international airport in Guangzhou city were selected as the study areas. Autocorrelation and cross-correlation analysis were used to perform univariate analysis to identify possible risk factors, with relevant lagged effects, associated with local dengue cases. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to extract principal components and PCA score was used to represent the original variables to reduce multi-collinearity. Combining the univariate analysis and prior knowledge, time-series Poisson regression analysis was conducted to quantify the relationship between weather variables, Breteau Index, imported DF cases and the local dengue transmission in Guangzhou, China. The goodness-of-fit of the constructed model was determined by pseudo-R2, Akaike information criterion (AIC) and residual test. There were a total of 707 notified local DF cases from March 2006 to December 2012, with a seasonal distribution from August to November. There were a total of 65 notified imported DF cases from 20 countries, with forty-six cases (70.8%) imported from Southeast Asia. The model showed that local DF cases were positively associated with mosquito density, imported cases, temperature, precipitation, vapour pressure and minimum relative humidity, whilst being negatively associated with air pressure, with different time

  5. Hybrid thermal link-wise artificial compressibility method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obrecht, Christian; Kuznik, Frédéric

    2015-10-01

    Thermal flow prediction is a subject of interest from a scientific and engineering points of view. Our motivation is to develop an accurate, easy to implement and highly scalable method for convective flows simulation. To this end, we present an extension to the link-wise artificial compressibility method (LW-ACM) for thermal simulation of weakly compressible flows. The novel hybrid formulation uses second-order finite difference operators of the energy equation based on the same stencils as the LW-ACM. For validation purposes, the differentially heated cubic cavity was simulated. The simulations remained stable for Rayleigh numbers up to Ra =108. The Nusselt numbers at isothermal walls and dynamics quantities are in good agreement with reference values from the literature. Our results show that the hybrid thermal LW-ACM is an effective and easy-to-use solution to solve convective flows.

  6. How can crop intra-specific biodiversity mitigate the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change? A case study on durum wheat in Southern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monaco, Eugenia; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Basile, Angelo; Menenti, Massimo; Bonfante, Antonello; De Lorenzi, Fracesca

    2014-05-01

    Climate evolution may lead to changes in the amount and distribution of precipitations and to reduced water availability, with constraints on the cultivation of some crops. Recently, foreseen crop responses to climate change raise a crucial question for the agricultural stakeholders: are the current production systems resilient to this change? An active debate is in progress about the definition of adaptation of agricultural systems, particularly about the integrated assessment of climate stressors, vulnerability and resilece towards the evaluation of climate impact on agricultural systems. Climate change represents a risk for rain-fed agricultural systems, where irrigations cannot compensate reductions in precipitations. The intra-specific biodiversity of crops can be a resource towards adaptation. The knowledge of the responses to environmental conditions (temperature and water availability) of different cultivars can allow to identify options for adaptation to future climate. Simulation models of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system, driven by different climate scenarios, can describe present and foreseen soil water regime. The present work deals with a case-study on the adaptive capacity of durum wheat to climate change. The selected study area is a hilly region in Southern Italy (Fortore Beneventano, Campania Region). Two climate cases were studied: "reference" (1961-1990) and "future" (2021-2050). A mechanistic model of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system (SWAP) was run to determine the water regime in some soil units, representative of the soil variability in the study area. From model output, the Relative Evapotranspiration Deficit (RETD) was determined as an indicator of hydrological conditions during the crop growing period for each year and climate case; and periods with higher frequencies of soil water deficits were identified. The timing of main crop development stages was calculated. The occurrence of water deficit at different

  7. Facilitating a stakeholder-led approach to the development of Mediterranean climate services: co-ordinating the CLIM-RUN case studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodess, C. M.

    2012-04-01

    The CLIM-RUN case studies provide a real-world context for bringing together experts on the demand and supply side of climate services. They are essential to the CLIM-RUN objective of using iterative and bottom-up (i.e., stakeholder led) approaches for optimizing the two-way information transfer between climate experts and stakeholders. The region of interest for CLIM-RUN is the Mediterranean, which is a recognised climate change hotspot (i.e., a region particularly sensitive and vulnerable to global warming) and which does not currently have developed climate service networks such as exist in a number of Central and Northern European countries. The case studies focus on the energy and tourism sectors, but also include a cross-cutting study on wild fires (an issue of increasing concern in the Mediterranean) as well as a cross-sectorial integrated case study for the Venice lagoon. They span coastal (e.g., Tunisia and Croatia), island (e.g., Cyprus) and mountain (e.g., Savoie) environments, the eastern (e.g., Greece) to western (e.g., Spain, Morocco) Mediterranean regions, and regional to local foci. Stakeholder involvement has been critical from the start of the project in March 2011, with a series of targeted workshops helping to define the framework for each case study. Two specific workshop objectives were to (i) better understand who are the climate services stakeholders and (ii) what they need/want from climate services (both in terms of data products and broader knowledge). Many of the workshops were held in local languages to maximise stakeholder participation, with expert knowledge provided by the CLIM-RUN climate and stakeholder expert teams (the CET and SET). Following the workshops, CET members are 'translating' the user needs into specific requirements from climate observations and models and identifying areas where additional modelling and analysis are required. As part of the central co-ordination of the case studies, a perception and data needs

  8. WISE DISCOVERY OF LOW-METALLICITY BLUE COMPACT DWARF GALAXIES

    SciTech Connect

    Griffith, Roger L.; Tsai, Chao-Wei; Jarrett, Thomas H.; Wu Yanling; Yan Lin; Stern, Daniel; Eisenhardt, Peter R. M.; Wu Jingwen; Blain, Andrew; Harrison, Fiona; Madsen, Kristin; Stanford, Spencer A.; Wright, Edward L.

    2011-07-20

    We report two new low-metallicity blue compact dwarf galaxies (BCDs), WISEP J080103.93+264053.9 (hereafter W0801+26) and WISEP J170233.53+180306.4 (hereafter W1702+18), discovered using the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). We identified these two BCDs from their extremely red colors at mid-infrared wavelengths and obtained follow-up optical spectroscopy using the Low Resolution Imaging Spectrometer on Keck I. The mid-infrared properties of these two sources are similar to the well-studied, extremely low metallicity galaxy SBS 0335-052E. We determine metallicities of 12 + log (O/H) = 7.75 and 7.63 for W0801+26 and W1702+18, respectively, placing them among a very small group of very metal deficient galaxies (Z {<=} 1/10 Z{sub sun}). Their >300 A H{beta} equivalent widths, similar to SBS 0335-052E, imply the existence of young (<5 Myr) star-forming regions. We measure star formation rates of 2.6 and 10.9 M{sub sun} yr{sup -1} for W0801+26 and W1702+18, respectively. These BCDs, showing recent star formation activity in extremely low metallicity environments, provide new laboratories for studying star formation in extreme conditions and are low-redshift analogs of the first generation of galaxies to form in the universe. Using the all-sky WISE survey, we discuss a new method to identify similar star-forming, low-metallicity BCDs.

  9. Uncertainties in predicting species distributions under climate change: a case study using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae), a widespread agricultural pest.

    PubMed

    Meynard, Christine N; Migeon, Alain; Navajas, Maria

    2013-01-01

    Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi), an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1) species prevalence; (2) modelling method; and (3) variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive threat

  10. Climate change negotiation simulations for students: responses across gender and age.A case study: San Francisco State University World Climate Exercises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasheva, E. A.

    2015-12-01

    For decades, role-play and simulation exercises have been utilized for learning and policy decision making. While the power of Model UN simulations in building first-person experience and understanding of complex international issues is well known, the effectiveness of simulations for inspiring citizen engagement in scientific public-policy issues is little studied. My work hypothesizes that climate-change negotiation simulations can enhance students' scientific literacy and policy advocacy. It aims to determine how age and gender influence the responsiveness of students to such simulations. During the 2015 fall semester, I am conducting World Climate exercises for fellow graduate and undergraduate students at San Francisco State University. At the end of the exercise, I will have collected the responses to an anonymous questionnaire in which the participants indicate age and gender. The questionnaire asks participants to describe their hopes and fears for the future and to propose public and personal actions for achieving a strong climate change agreement. I am tracking differences to determine whether participants' age and gender correlate with particular patterns of feeling and thinking. My future research will aim to determine whether and how strongly the World Climate Exercise has affected participants' actual policy engagement. This work will also reflect on my experiences as a World Climate facilitator. I will describe the facilitation process and then discuss some of my observations from the sessions. I will specify the challenges I have encountered and suggest strategies that can strengthen the learning process. World Climate is a computer-simulation-based climate change negotiations role-playing exercise developed by Climate Interactive in partnership with the System Dynamics Group at the MIT Sloan School of Management.

  11. Reconstructing high-resolution climate using CT scanning of unsectioned stalagmites: A case study identifying the mid-Holocene onset of the Mediterranean climate in southern Iberia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walczak, Izabela W.; Baldini, James U. L.; Baldini, Lisa M.; McDermott, Frank; Marsden, Stuart; Standish, Christopher D.; Richards, David A.; Andreo, Bartolomé; Slater, Jonathan

    2015-11-01

    The forcing mechanisms responsible for the mid-Holocene onset of the Mediterranean-type climate in south-western Europe are currently unclear, but understanding these is critical for accurate climate projections under future greenhouse gas warming. Additionally, regional studies that present conflicting patterns for the onset and advancement of Mediterranean climatic conditions complicate definitively ascribing causality. Here, we use a new high resolution stalagmite density record obtained non-destructively using Computed Tomography (CT scanning) to reconstruct southern Iberian climate between 9.3 and 2.9 ka BP. We suggest that stalagmite density can be used as a water-excess proxy, with lower densities associated with more variable drip rates, possibly reflecting increased seasonality consistent with expectations from previous studies of speleothem textures and crystal fabrics. Our results reveal an early Holocene humid interval and mid-Holocene year-round aridity that preceded the onset of Mediterranean climate at 5.3 ka BP in southern Iberia. Using this new dataset combined with previously published results, we link the gradual advancement of the Mediterranean climate to the southward migration of the North Atlantic Subtropical High induced by an orbitally driven decrease in Northern Hemisphere insolation. Future anthropogenic warming could result in a reversal of this trend, a northward migration of the North Atlantic Subtropical High, and a return to year-round aridity in south-western Europe.

  12. Implications of climate change on the heat budget of lentic systems used for power station cooling: Case study Clinton Lake, Illinois

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P. Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; Garcia, Marcelo H.

    2016-01-01

    We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change--in particular higher air temperatures--on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

  13. Implications of Climate Change on the Heat Budget of Lentic Systems Used for Power Station Cooling: Case Study Clinton Lake, Illinois.

    PubMed

    Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; García, Marcelo H

    2016-01-05

    We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change-in particular higher air temperatures-on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

  14. Glacier Runoff and Human Vulnerability to Climate Change: The Case of Export Agriculture in Peru (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carey, M.

    2013-12-01

    There is growing concern about the effects of climate change and ensuing glacier shrinkage on water supplies for mountain communities worldwide. The issue is only becoming more complex as researchers seek to quantify glacier contributions to streamflow and to pinpoint when and how much glacier runoff will likely change as a result of future climate change and glacier variation. Additionally, some researchers are beginning to recognize the importance of understanding the human dimensions of glacier retreat to identify which social groups (stakeholders) use glacier runoff and how much they use, as well as what socio-environmental forces affect both water supplies and water use. This presentation examines these societal aspects of glacier runoff to analyze human vulnerability to hydrological changes in Peru's Santa River watershed below the most glaciated tropical mountain range in the world, the Cordillera Blanca. Specifically, it focuses on the billion-dollar export-oriented agricultural industry within the Chavimochic irrigation project, which uses Santa River water to irrigate approximately 80,000 hectares in the coastal desert region. Since the 1980s, Santa River water has allowed Chavimochic to sustain a major export economy, provide jobs in the agro-industry and related services, stimulate human migration, enhance or alter livelihoods, generate hydroelectricity, supply drinking water, and shape urban growth and land use practices. All of these variables are dependent on glacier meltwater from the Cordillera Blanca, especially during the dry season when glaciers provide most of the Santa River's water. In short, hundreds of thousands of people have come to depend on glacier runoff, thus revealing their high level of vulnerability to hydrological fluctuations in a glacier-fed watershed. What's more, people worldwide rely on the asparagus, avocados, and artichokes grown with glacier runoff. Consequently, the export-oriented agriculture, through the "virtual water

  15. The Influence of the Climate Change on Landslide Disasters in Western Japan -Hiroshima's case-

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubota, Tetsuya; Aditian, Aril

    2015-04-01

    In last year 2014 and 2012, tremendous landslides due to heavy rainfalls occurred in western Japan. Especially in August 2014, serious landslide disasters induced by the extremely heavy rainfall caused over 70 people's death in Hiroshima. Most of them were caused by debris flows from shallow landslides on granite forest slopes on August 20. In Hiroshima, long-term increase in rainfalls was not obvious, while this trend was found in other area such as Kyushu district. However, in western Japan, the influence of climate change emerged in the increase of vapor concentration caused by rising water surface temperature in East China Sea and that brought the extreme rainfall. The landslide (debris flow) disasters in Hiroshima have distinctive characteristics in terms of followings: (1) the source of debris flows (directly flowing down from mostly shallow landslides), (2) their usual equivalent friction coefficient "Mf" i.e. relative travel distance for Granite (values between 0.174 and 0.554). (3) the peculiar meteorological condition of frontogenesis with vapor convergence on the stationary front and around the Pacific high pressure that can generate the heavy precipitation (above 101 mm/hr, total 256 mm). (4) Contrary to Mf values above, they caused heavy disaster at downstream area with the urban development on hillside slopes. We found that the Mf becomes bigger (relatively short travel distance) as the return period of disasters"Tr"becomes shorter as evaluating in the next formula: Mf = 0.278 Tr^(-3.32). If the return period becomes shorter due to climate change (it is possible), Mf may become bigger. However, the cities such as Hiroshima, Kobe or Nagasaki in western Japan which have the urban area at hillside will be more prone to severe debris flow disasters. (5) Also, theoretically, we may have more slope failures and debris flows per area "N/A" if the rainfall increment "dR" increases. The "increasing ratio in N/A" is given by next equation: (N/A)/(N0/A)=((R0 + d

  16. Case study of climatic changes in Martian fluvial systems at Xanthe Terra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kereszturi, Akos

    2014-06-01

    An unnamed valley system was analyzed in Xanthe Terra south of Havel Vallis on Mars where three separate episodes of fluvial activity could be identified with different morphology, water source and erosional processes, inferring formation under different climatic conditions. The oldest scattered valleys (1. group) form interconnecting network and suggest areally distributed water source. Later two valley types formed from confined water source partly supported by possible subsurface water. The smaller upper reaches (2. group) with three separate segments and also a similar aged but areal washed terrain suggest contribution from shallow subsurface inflow. These valleys fed the main channel (3. group), which morphology (wide, theater shaped source, few tributaries, steep walls) is the most compatible with the subsurface sapping origin. While the first valley group formed in the Noachian, the other two, more confined groups are younger. Their crater density based age value is uncertain, and could be only 1200 million years. After these three fluvial episodes etch pitted, heavily eroded terrain formed possibly by ice sublimation driven collapse. More recently (60-200 million years ago) dunes covered the bottom of the valleys, and finally the youngest event took place when mass movements produced debris covered the valleys' slopes with sediments along their wall around 5-15 million years ago, suggesting wind activity finished earlier than the mass movements in the region. This small area represents the sequence of events probably appeared on global scale: the general cooling and drying environment of Mars. Comparing the longitudinal profiles here to other valleys in Xanthe Terra, convex shaped valley profiles are usually connected to steep terrains. The location of erosional base might play an important role in their formation that can be produced convex shapes where the erosional base descended topographically (by deep impact crater or deep outflow channel formation

  17. Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modeling flood damages under climate change conditions - a case study for Germany"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Huang, S.; Burghoff, O.; Hoffmann, P.; Kundzewicz, Z. W.

    2015-12-01

    In our first study on possible flood damages under climate change in Germany, we reported that a considerable increase in flood related losses can be expected in future, warmer, climate. However, the general significance of the study was limited by the fact that outcome of only one Global Climate Model (GCM) was used as large scale climate driver, while many studies report that GCM models are often the largest source of uncertainty in impact modeling. Here we show that a much broader set of global and regional climate model combinations as climate driver shows trends which are in line with the original results and even give a stronger increase of damages.

  18. Evaluation of users' satisfaction on pedestrian facilities using pair-wise comparison approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zainol, R.; Ahmad, F.; Nordin, N. A.; Aripin, A. W. M.

    2014-02-01

    Global climate change issues demand people of the world to change the way they live today. Thus, current cities need to be redeveloped towards less use of carbon in their day to day operations. Pedestrianized environment is one of the approaches used in reducing carbon foot print in cities. Heritage cities are the first to be looked into since they were built in the era in which motorized vehicles were minimal. Therefore, the research explores users' satisfaction on assessment of physical attributes of pedestrianization in Melaka Historical City, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. It aims to examine users' satisfaction on pedestrian facilities provided within the study area using pair wise questionnaire comparison approach. A survey of 200 respondents using random sampling was conducted in six different sites namely Jonker Street, Church Street, Kota Street, Goldsmith Street, Merdeka Street to Taming Sari Tower and Merdeka Street to River Cruise terminal. The survey consists of an assessment tool based on a nine-point scale of users' satisfaction level of pathway properties, zebra pedestrian crossing, street furniture, personal safety, adjacent to traffic flow, aesthetic and amenities. Analytical hierarchical process (AHP) was used to avoid any biasness in analyzing the data collected. Findings show that Merdeka Street to Taming Sari Tower as the street that scores the highest satisfaction level that fulfils all the required needs of a pedestrianized environment. Similar assessment elements can be used to evaluate existing streets in other cities and these criteria should also be used in planning for future cities.

  19. The Angular Clustering of WISE-Selected AGN: Different Haloes for Obscured and Unobscured AGN

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Lin

    2015-08-01

    We calculate the angular correlation function for a sample of 170,000 AGN extracted from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) catalog, selected to have red mid-IR colors (W1 - W2 > 0.8) and 4.6 micron flux densities brighter than 0.14 mJy). The sample is expected to be >90% reliable at identifying AGN, and to have a mean redshift of z=1.1. In total, the angular clustering of WISE-AGN is roughly similar to that of optical AGN. We cross-match these objects with the photometric SDSS catalog and distinguish obscured sources with (r - W2) > 6 from bluer, unobscured AGN. Obscured sources present a higher clustering signal than unobscured sources. Since the host galaxy morphologies of obscured AGN are not typical red sequence elliptical galaxies and show disks in many cases, it is unlikely that the increased clustering strength of the obscured population is driven by a host galaxy segregation bias. By using relatively complete redshift distributions from the COSMOS survey, we find obscured sources at mean redshift z=0.9 have a bias of b = 2.9 \\pm 0.6 and are hosted in dark matter halos with a typical mass of log(M/M_odot)~13.5. In contrast, unobscured AGN at z~1.1 have a bias of b = 1.6 \\pm 0.6 and inhabit halos of log(M/M_odot)~12.4. These findings suggest that obscured AGN inhabit denser environments than unobscured AGN, and are difficult to reconcile with the simplest AGN unification models, where obscuration is driven solely by orientation.

  20. Technology Solutions Case Study: Durable Interior Foundation Insulation Retrofits for Cold Climates, Cloquet, Minnesota

    SciTech Connect

    2015-04-01

    Thermal and moisture problems in existing basements create a unique challenge as the exterior face of the wall is not easily or inexpensively accessible. This approach by the NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership team addresses thermal and moisture management from the interior face of the wall without disturbing the exterior soil and landscaping. It is effective at reducing energy loss through the wall principally during the heating season. The team conducted experiments at the Cloquet Residential Research Facility to test the heat and moisture performance of four hollow masonry block wall systems and two rim-joist systems. These systems were retrofitted with interior insulation in compliance with the 2012 IECC. The research showed for the first time that, for masonry block walls in a cold climate, a solid bond beam or equivalent provides adequate resistance to moisture transport from a hollow core to the rim-joist cavity. Thus, a solid top course is a minimum requirement for an interior retrofit insulation system.

  1. Building America Case Study: Rehabilitation of USDA Multifamily Homes, Georgia (Climate Zones 2-4)

    SciTech Connect

    2016-04-01

    Rea Ventures Group, LLC, (Rea Ventures) partnered with Southface Energy Institute (Southface) on the rehabilitation of 418 low-income rental multifamily apartments located at 14 different properties in Georgia (Climate Zones 2-4). These 22-year old, individually-metered units were arranged in rowhouse or townhouse style units. Rehabilitation plans were developed using a process prescribed by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Rural Development program, who partially funded the building upgrades. The USDA is responsible for building, upgrading, and subsidizing housing in rural areas nationwide. In 2012, over $100 million was allocated in grants and loans. Due to the unique financing mechanism as well as long-term ownership requirements, property owners are especially motivated to invest in upgrades that will increase durability and tenant retention. These buildings represent a large stock of rural affordable housing that have the potential for significant energy and cost savings for property owners and tenants. Southface analyzed the energy upgrade potential of one stereotypical property in the Rea Ventures portfolio. This study will provide insight into the most cost-effective, implementable energy efficiency and durability upgrades for this age multifamily housing, having an enormous impact not only on the portfolio of Rea Ventures but on the vast USDA and larger Federal portfolio. Additionally, Southface will identify gaps in the current capital needs assessment process, examine available audit and simulation tools and protocols, and evaluate additional auditor training or certification needs.

  2. Key Elements of Observing Practice: A Data Wise DVD and Facilitator's Guide

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boudett, Kathryn Parker; City, Elizabeth A.; Russell, Marcia K.

    2010-01-01

    Based on the bestselling book "Data Wise: A Step-by-Step Guide to Using Assessment Results to Improve Teaching and Learning", and its companion volume, "Data Wise in Action", this DVD and Facilitator's Guide offer insight into one of the most challenging steps in capturing data about school performance: observing and analyzing instructional…

  3. Differential Benefits of Memory Training for Minority Older Adults in the SeniorWISE Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDougall, Graham J., Jr.; Becker, Heather; Pituch, Keenan; Acee, Taylor W.; Vaughan, Phillip W.; Delville, Carol L.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: Cognitive training improves mental abilities in older adults, but the benefit to minority elders is unclear. We conducted a subgroup analysis of subjects in the SeniorWISE (Wisdom Is Simply Exploration) trial to examine this issue. Design and Methods: SeniorWISE was a Phase 3 randomized trial that enrolled 265 nondemented…

  4. The Faintest WISE Debris Disks: Enhanced Methods for Detection and Verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patel, Rahul I.; Metchev, Stanimir A.; Heinze, Aren; Trollo, Joseph

    2017-02-01

    In an earlier study, we reported nearly 100 previously unknown dusty debris disks around Hipparcos main-sequence stars within 75 pc by selecting stars with excesses in individual WISE colors. Here, we further scrutinize the Hipparcos 75 pc sample to (1) gain sensitivity to previously undetected, fainter mid-IR excesses and (2) remove spurious excesses contaminated by previously unidentified blended sources. We improve on our previous method by adopting a more accurate measure of the confidence threshold for excess detection and by adding an optimally weighted color average that incorporates all shorter-wavelength WISE photometry, rather than using only individual WISE colors. The latter is equivalent to spectral energy distribution fitting, but only over WISE bandpasses. In addition, we leverage the higher-resolution WISE images available through the unWISE.me image service to identify contaminated WISE excesses based on photocenter offsets among the W3- and W4-band images. Altogether, we identify 19 previously unreported candidate debris disks. Combined with the results from our earlier study, we have found a total of 107 new debris disks around 75 pc Hipparcos main-sequence stars using precisely calibrated WISE photometry. This expands the 75 pc debris disk sample by 22% around Hipparcos main-sequence stars and by 20% overall (including non-main-sequence and non-Hipparcos stars).

  5. Assessing High Order Thinking of Students Participating in the "WISE" Project in Israel.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tal, Revital; Hochberg, Nurit

    2003-01-01

    Studied the higher order thinking of 53 Israeli ninth graders in 3 schools using the Web-Based Inquiry Science Environment (WISE) learning environment to study about malaria. Findings show that all students used higher order thinking skills and that their English was good enough to use the WISE learning environment in the Israeli setting. (SLD)

  6. Viewing Violence, Mental Illness and Addiction through a Wise Practices Lens

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wesley-Esquimaux, Cynthia C.; Snowball, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    The progressive approaches First Nations, Metis, and Inuit communities use to address health and wellness concerns are rarely written about or acknowledged in a positive manner. This paper speaks to a concept introduced through the Canadian Aboriginal Aids Network (CAAN) entitled "wise practices". CAAN saw a "wise practices"…

  7. More Than a Pretty Picture: Making WISE Data Accessible to the Public

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ali, Nancy; Mendez, B.; Fricke, K.; Wright, E. L.; Eisenhardt, P. R.; Cutri, R. M.; Hurt, R.; WISE Team

    2011-01-01

    NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) has surveyed the sky in four bands of infrared light, creating a treasure trove of data. This data is of interest not only to the professional astronomical community, but also to educators, students and the general public. The Education and Public Outreach (E/PO) program for WISE is creating opportunities to make WISE data accessible to these audiences through the Internet as well as through teacher professional development programs. Shortly after WISE took its first light image in January 2010, images have been featured weekly on the WISE website. These images serve to engage the general public through "pretty pictures” that are accompanied by educational captions. Social media such as Facebook and Twitter are used to further engage the public with the images. For a more comprehensive view of WISE images, we are creating a guided tour of the infrared sky on the WorldWide Telescope. The public will be able to use the free WorldWide Telescope software to interact with WISE images and listen to narration that describes features of the Universe as seen in infrared light. We are also developing resources for teachers and students to access WISE data when in becomes public in 2011 to learn about astronomical imaging and to conduct authentic scientific investigations.

  8. Impact of HealthWise South Africa on Polydrug Use and High-Risk Sexual Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tibbits, Melissa K.; Smith, Edward A.; Caldwell, Linda L.; Flisher, Alan J.

    2011-01-01

    This study was designed to evaluate the efficacy of the HealthWise South Africa HIV and substance abuse prevention program at impacting adolescents' polydrug use and sexual risk behaviors. HealthWise is a school-based intervention designed to promote social-emotional skills, increase knowledge and refusal skills relevant to substance use and…

  9. Parenting Interventions Implementation Science: How Delivery Format Impacts the Parenting Wisely Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cotter, Katie L.; Bacallao, Martica; Smokowski, Paul R.; Robertson, Caroline I. B.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: This study examines the implementation and effectiveness of Parenting Wisely, an Internet-based parenting skills intervention. The study assesses whether parents benefit from Parenting Wisely participation and whether the delivery format influences program effectiveness. Method: This study uses a quasi-experimental design.…

  10. Evaluation of the Wise Guys Male Responsibility Curriculum: Participant-Control Comparisons

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gruchow, Harvey William; Brown, Roger K.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Although males are often the initiators of teen sexual activity, pregnancy prevention programs generally target females. To address this deficiency, the Wise Guys Male Responsibility Curriculum was developed to be delivered to adolescent males in weekly classroom sessions. Methods: Seventh grade participants (n = 124) in the Wise Guys…

  11. WISE Science: Web-based Inquiry in the Classroom. Technology, Education--Connections

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Slotta, James D.; Linn, Marcia C.

    2009-01-01

    This book shares the lessons learned by a large community of educational researchers and science teachers as they designed, developed, and investigated a new technology-enhanced learning environment known as WISE: The Web-Based Inquiry Science Environment. WISE offers a collection of free, customizable curriculum projects on topics central to the…

  12. The SunWise School Program Guide: A School Program that Radiates Good Ideas

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    US Environmental Protection Agency, 2003

    2003-01-01

    To help educators raise sun safety awareness, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed the SunWise School Program, a national education program for children in grades K through 8. SunWise Partner Schools sponsor classroom and schoolwide activities that raise children's awareness of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation,…

  13. Sun Savvy Students: Free Teaching Resources from EPA's SunWise Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall-Jordan, Luke

    2008-01-01

    With summer in full swing and the sun is naturally on our minds, what better time to take advantage of a host of free materials provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Sun Wise program. Sun Wise aims to teach students and teachers about the stratospheric ozone layer, ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and how to be safe while in the Sun.…

  14. Technology Solutions Case Study: Cold Climate Foundation Wall Hygrothermal Research Facility, Cloquet, Minnesota

    SciTech Connect

    2014-09-01

    This case study describes the University of Minnesota’s Cloquet Residential Research Facility (CRRF) in northern Minnesota, which features more than 2,500 ft2 of below-grade space for building systems foundation hygrothermal research. Here, the NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership team researches ways to improve the energy efficiency of the building envelope, including wall assemblies, basements, roofs, insulation, and air leakage.

  15. An extralimital population in a warm climatic outpost: the case of the moth Idaea dilutaria in Scandinavia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryrholm, Nils

    1988-09-01

    The moth Idaea dilutaria Hübn. (Geometridae) has an isolated population on the Kullaberg peninsula in southern Sweden. Investigations of the local and micro-climate on the peninsula showed that the local distribution range of the moth coincided with the areas of warmest climate, supporting the hypothesis that the Kullaberg poppulation is dependent for its survival on the warm climate of this area and that the species here is a “thermal relict” from a previously warmer climatic period.

  16. Summarising climate and air quality (ozone) data on self-organising maps: a Sydney case study.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Ningbo; Betts, Alan; Riley, Matt

    2016-02-01

    This paper explores the classification and visualisation utility of the self-organising map (SOM) method in the context of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, using gridded NCEP/NCAR geopotential height reanalysis for east Australia, together with multi-site meteorological and air quality data for Sydney from the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage Air Quality Monitoring Network. A twice-daily synoptic classification has been derived for east Australia for the period of 1958-2012. The classification has not only reproduced the typical synoptic patterns previously identified in the literature but also provided an opportunity to visualise the subtle, non-linear change in the eastward-migrating synoptic systems influencing NSW (including Sydney). The summarisation of long-term, multi-site air quality/meteorological data from the Sydney basin on the SOM plane has identified a set of typical air pollution/meteorological spatial patterns in the region. Importantly, the examination of these patterns in relation to synoptic weather types has provided important visual insights into how local and synoptic meteorological conditions interact with each other and affect the variability of air quality in tandem. The study illustrates that while synoptic circulation types are influential, the within-type variability in mesoscale flows plays a critical role in determining local ozone levels in Sydney. These results indicate that the SOM can be a useful tool for assessing the impact of weather and climatic conditions on air quality in the regional airshed. This study further promotes the use of the SOM method in environmental research.

  17. Remote Sensing in a Changing Climate and Environment: the Rift Valley Fever Case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tourre, Y. M.; Lacaux, J.-P.; Vignolles, C.; Lafaye, M.

    2012-07-01

    Climate and environment are changing rapidly whilst global population already reached 7 billions people. New public health challenges are posed by new and re-emerging diseases. Innovation is a must i.e., 1) using high resolution remote sensing, 2) re-invent health politics and trans-disciplinary management. The above are part of the 'TransCube Approach' i.e., Transition, Translation, and Transformation. The new concept of Tele-epidemiology includes such approach. A conceptual approach (CA) associated with Rift Valley Fever (RVF) epidemics in Senegal is presented. Ponds are detected using high-resolution SPOT-5 satellite images and radar data from space. Data on rainfall events obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (NASA/JAXA) are combined with in-situ data. Localization of vulnerable and parked hosts (obtained from QuickBird satellite) is also used. The dynamic spatio-temporal distribution and aggressiveness of RVF mosquitoes, are based on total rainfall amounts, ponds' dynamics and entomological observations. Detailed risks maps (hazards + vulnerability) in real-time are expressed in percentages of parks where animals are potentially at risks. This CA which simply relies upon rainfall distribution from space, is meant to contribute to the implementation of the RVF early warning system (RVFews). It is meant to be applied to other diseases and elsewhere. This is particularly true in new places where new vectors have been rapidly adapting (such as Aedes albopictus) whilst viruses (such as West Nile and Chikungunya,) circulate from constantly moving reservoirs and increasing population.

  18. Role of waste management with regard to climate protection: a case study.

    PubMed

    Hackl, Albert; Mauschitz, Gerd

    2008-02-01

    According to the Kyoto Protocol and the burden-sharing agreement of the European Union, Austria is required to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during the years 2008 to 2012 in order to achieve an average reduction of 13%, based on the level of emissions for the year 1990. The present contribution gives an overview of the history of GHG emission regulation in Austria and identifies the progress made towards the realization of the national climate strategy to attain the GHG emission targets. The contribution uses Austria as an example of the way in which proper waste management can help to reduce GHG emissions. The GHG inventories show that everything must be done to minimize the carbon input due to waste deposition at landfill sites. The incineration of waste is particularly helpful in reducing GHG emissions. The waste-to-energy by incineration plants and recovery of energy yield an ecologically proper treatment of waste using state-of-the-art techniques of a very high standard. The potential for GHG reduction of conventional waste treatment technologies has been estimated by the authors. A growing number of waste incinerators and intensified co-incineration of waste in Austrian industry will both help to reduce national GHG emissions substantially. By increasing the number and capacity of plants for thermal treatment of waste the contribution of proper waste management to the national target for reduction of GHG emissions will be in the range of 8 to 14%. The GHG inventories also indicate that a potential CO2 reduction of about 500 000 t year(-1) is achievable by co-incineration of waste in Austrian industry.

  19. Health impact from climatic extremes: a case study of Asian dust storms in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lien, Yi-Jen; Chien, Lung-Chang; Yang, Chiang-Hsin; Yu, Hwa-Lung

    2013-04-01

    Asian dust storm (ADS) originates in the deserts of Mongolia and northern China in every winter and spring seasons, and its impacts on adverse human health were widely investigated and discussed. Recent records show that the frequency and magnitude of ADS are increasing due to changes of environmental and climatic conditions. It is worthwhile to investigate the health impact of these environmental extremes. This study applies a structural spatiotemporal modeling approach to investigate the changes of spatiotemporal variation of a health indicator during and after ADS periods. The health indicator is the daily clinic visits of conjunctivitis in the children population during 2002-2007 among 41 districts across Taipei City and New Taipei City in Taiwan. Results show positively significant effects of children's conjunctivitis clinic visits happened during ADS periods with elevated percentages of relative rate by 1.48% (95% CI = 0.79, 2.17) for preschool children (0~6 years of age) and 9.48% (95% CI = 9.03, 9.93) for schoolchildren (7~14 years of age). The impact even lasted one week after ADS finished by 2.32% (95% CI = 1.98, 2.66) for schoolchildren, but not for preschool children. Moreover, air pollutants NO2 and O3 also contributed significant influence. The spatial pattern of children's conjunctivitis clinic visits demonstrates that stronger spatial vulnerabilities occurred in most populated metropolitan districts in Taipei. Hence, we concluded that ADS may significantly increase the risks of children's conjunctivitis during ADS periods and one week after ADS periods, especially in schoolchildren.

  20. Ontology Re-engineering Use Case: Extending SWEET to map Climate and Forecasting Vocabulary Terms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramachandran, R.; Graves, S.; Raskin, R.

    2006-05-01

    A common problem faced while developing metadata for scientific data archives is that of keywords. Although keywords are an effective way for searching the resource catalogs, data archive designers may select from one of many different controlled vocabularies to describe their holdings. For example, in Earth Science, Climate and Forecasting (CF Convention) is a controlled vocabulary commonly used within the Modeling community. Similarly, the Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) keywords list is the convention used within the NASA Earth Science Program. The use of controlled vocabularies allows searches on the resource catalogs to be accurate and complete, but the burden of framing the precise query falls on the shoulders of the users. The user has to know the keyword before hand in order to perform a "free text" search. This might be perfectly acceptable in smaller projects where the users are specialized and have the required knowledge, but is impractical in larger projects where the users may have varied levels of domain knowledge. One solution to this problem is the use of an ontology, where the ontology contains higher level abstract concepts and the corresponding mapping to the different controlled vocabulary terms. This use of ontologies eliminates the barrier of entry based on domain knowledge and provides easy-to-use search capabilities to the users. In this presentation, we will describe an ontology designed and created to address this problem. However, this ontology required re-engineering of higher level ontologies, namely the Semantic Web for Earth and Environmental Terminology (SWEET) ontologies, instead of the initial creation of an ontology. Since the traditional methodologies for creating an ontology do not account for reengineering and reuse of higher level ontologies, we propose a new modified methodology. This presentation will describe this methodology and also explore some of the issues and challenges involved in the construction of an

  1. How do people's perceptions and climatic disaster experiences influence their daily behaviors regarding adaptation to climate change? - A case study among young generations.

    PubMed

    Deng, Ying; Wang, Ming; Yousefpour, Rasoul

    2017-03-01

    Adaptation is a commonly applied strategy used to address individual behavior changes, in response to climate change. However, in-depth, evidence-based investigations of the relationships among individual perceptions, climatic disaster experiences, and daily behaviors regarding adaptation to climate change remain to be conducted. We obtained survey data from 488 respondents in southwestern China, a region prone to frequent and severe droughts, to assess factors that influence adaptive behaviors and to identify their pathways. We applied Construal Level Theory (CLT) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to differentiate between respondents' high-level abstract construals and their low-level concrete construals. We analyzed the influences of these two levels of perception, combined with drought experiences on water-saving behaviors. We developed a structural equation model to estimate the correlation coefficients of the latent and observed variables in the structural process linked to the respondents' adaptive behaviors. The results found that a concrete perception of saving water plays a more significant part than an abstract perception of climate change in prompting specific adaptive behaviors. Improving public perceptions of climate change might increase the desirability of adaptation, whereas improving perceptions of water saving might increase the feasibility of implementing adaptive measures. Experience influenced individual behaviors, but that influence was indirect through its effects on perceptions.

  2. DDT_yamamura_1: Herschel photometry of WISE J180956.27-330500.2; a newly discovered AGB star undergoing episodic mass ejection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamamura, I.

    2012-05-01

    We propose to carry out imaging photometry of WISE J180956.27-330500.2 (hereafter WISE J1810) using PACS (at 70, 110, 160 micron) and SPIRE (at 250, 350, 500 micron) in order to obtain the latest far-IR and sub-mm fluxes of the object and constrain the nature of its mass-loss history. WISE J1810 was discovered very recently by us (Gandhi et al. 2012) as an object with a peculiar 2MASS--WISE spectral energy distribution (SED). We propose that the object is an asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star presently experiencing an episodic mass-loss event following a thermal pulse. If this is the case, it is the first opportunity of real-time observation of AGB mass ejection at thermal pulse. The infrared SED of this object is rapidly evolving over the past 15 years and updated observations over a broad wavelength range are essential. Herschel is the only available facility with the capability of high-sensitivity, high-spatial resolution observations at far-infrared and sub-mm wavelengths, and can provide indispensable information of the rapidly expanding dust shell of this object. The unique nature of this source, its recent bright appearance and rapid evolution prompt us to request a DDT observation while Herschel is still operating. The requested observing time is 1414 sec, which is the minimum operation time for the observing modes that will be used.

  3. Exploring Faculty Diversity in the South: A Case Study on Campus Climate and Leadership Commitment to the Recruitment and Retention of African American Faculty

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gamble, Angie Monique

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this qualitative case study was to explore faculty diversity in the South by examining the campus climate and leadership commitment to the recruitment and retention of African American faculty. The Critical Race Theory (CRT) concept of storytelling captured the participants' personal experiences and perceptions. Three higher…

  4. A Case Study of Land Treatment in a Cold Climate-West Dover, Vermont,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-12-01

    D-A25 438 A CASE STUDY OF LAND TREATMENT IN R COLD CLINATE-NEST 1/2 DOVER VERRONT(U) COLD REGIONS RESEARCH AND ENGINEERING LAB HRNOYER NH J R BOUZOUN...mlusually frn Other soils present in the pray field were identi- more than 4 weeks. fied as Podunk and Walpole . The Podunk soils are According to information...layers. Walpole soils are deep, somewhat from 0.5 to 50 gpm (gallons per minute), with a poorly to poorly drained soils on terraces, with fine median yield

  5. Assessment of Urban Plantation Climate-Regulating Function based on Remote Sensing Data (Case Study Moscow)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandlerskiy, Robert

    2010-05-01

    A variety of active surfaces in combination with various building levels forms a specific urban mode of atmospheric turbulence. The spatial combination of green plantings, asphalt and building defines a temperature and wind mode, and creates various air circulation systems. Influence of spatial structure and buildings height on a wind mode of urban territories is full enough studied in town-planning. Assessment of the input to formation of urban climate of surfaces with various heat capacity and, vegetation is not developed. This assessment can be based on the multispectral remote sensing data which contain information on energetic surface condition. Multispectral data development make possible a calculation of the basic energetic characteristics of surfaces: input and absorption of solar energy, energy consumption on evapotranspiration, thermal scattering and accumulation, a heat flux and temperature of surface. This technique gives a possibility to estimate a thermal mode of surface at various spatial scales. In world practice urban landscapes condition estimation based on remote data (Urban Remote Sensing) is underdeveloped, and focused, mainly, on temperature and heat flux estimation. For energetic characteristics estimation for Moscow territory we use Landsat 5 TM and 7 ETM + remote sensing data for three terms in the vegetational season: May (26/05/2003), July (21/07/2003), August (17/08/2007), with the spatial resolution 30х30 m for 6 channels in a short-wave range and 60х60 m - for the thermal channel. Mean values of calculated temperatures have been compared to daily temperatures on a municipal meteorological station. The calculated energetic characteristics have been analyzed to estimate independent factors which determine their spatial variation. Basing on the estimated factors we classify surface, and allocate surface types with a various temperature and energetic mode. Next we calculate mean values of energetic characteristics to each type. Type

  6. Climate co-benefits of energy recovery from landfill gas in developing Asian cities: a case study in Bangkok.

    PubMed

    Menikpura, S N M; Sang-Arun, Janya; Bengtsson, Magnus

    2013-10-01

    Landfilling is the most common and cost-effective waste disposal method, and it is widely applied throughout the world. In developing countries in Asia there is currently a trend towards constructing sanitary landfills with gas recovery systems, not only as a solution to the waste problem and the associated local environmental pollution, but also to generate revenues through carbon markets and from the sale of electricity. This article presents a quantitative assessment of climate co-benefits from landfill gas (LFG) to energy projects, based on the case of Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, Thailand. Life cycle assessment was used for estimating net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, considering the whole lifespan of the landfill. The assessment found that the total GHG mitigation of the Bangkok project would be 471,763 tonnes (t) of carbon dioxide (CO(2))-equivalents (eq) over its 10-year LFG recovery period.This amount is equivalent to only 12% of the methane (CH(4)) generated over the whole lifespan of the landfill. An alternative scenario was devised to analyse possible improvement options for GHG mitigation through LFG-to-energy recovery projects. This scenario assumes that LFG recovery would commence in the second year of landfill operation and gas extraction continues throughout the 20-year peak production period. In this scenario, GHG mitigation potential amounted to 1,639,450 tCO(2)-eq during the 20-year project period, which is equivalent to 43% of the CH(4) generated throughout the life cycle. The results indicate that with careful planning, there is a high potential for improving the efficiency of existing LFG recovery projects which would enhance climate co-benefits, as well as economic benefits. However, the study also shows that even improved gas recovery systems have fairly low recovery rates and, in consequence, that emissions of GHG from such landfills sites are still considerable.

  7. The environmental sustainability of sugarcane cultivation under scenarios of climate change: case studies for Brazil and Ghana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Black, E.; Vidale, P. L.; Verhoef, A.; Cuadro, S. V.

    2012-04-01

    Over the next decades increasing oil and carbon prices will lead to a proliferation of energy crop cultivation initiatives. Many of these will be based in developing countries, and hence will affect some of the poorest people in the world. The capacity of such initiatives to alleviate poverty in the long term depends on their environmental sustainability. Specifically, the exploitation of water resources in an unsustainable manner may permanently damage vulnerable ecosystems and ultimately deepen poverty. These issues have motivated a collaborative project - Integrated Carbon, Water and Land Management for Poverty Alleviation (ICWALPA), which asks whether the export of bio-fuel technology from Brazil to Ghana will alleviate poverty. This presentation will describe the initial results from ICWALPA - including the development of an integrated environmental modelling framework and its application to sugarcane cultivation under scenarios of climate change. The environmental model used to represent the biophysical interactions is process-based and implemented in the framework of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). Crop growth is predicted dynamically by accumulating the carbon assimilated during photosynthesis and is then allocated according to well-established allometric principles. Two contrasting case studies will be presented: the Sao Paulo region of Brazil (where there is an established sugarcane industry) and the Daka River region of Ghana (where commercial sugarcane cultivation is planned). We show that our model is capable of reproducing both the spatial and temporal variability in sugarcane yield for the Sao Paulo province of Brazil - lending credence to the projections for Ghana. For Ghana, we show that, providing there is sufficient irrigation, it is possible to generate approximately 75% of the yield achieved in the Sao Paulo province. In the final part of the study, the behaviour of sugarcane under an idealized climate change scenario is

  8. Comparison of Stream Temperature Modeling Approaches: The Case of a High Alpine Watershed in the Context of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gallice, A.

    2015-12-01

    Stream temperature controls important aspects of the riverine habitat, such as the rate of spawning or death of many fish species, or the concentration of numerous dissolved substances. In the current context of accelerating climate change, the future evolution of stream temperature is regarded as uncertain, particularly in the Alps. This uncertainty fostered the development of many prediction models, which are usually classified in two categories: mechanistic models and statistical models. Based on the numerical resolution of physical conservation laws, mechanistic models are generally considered to provide more reliable long-term estimates than regression models. However, despite their physical basis, these models are observed to differ quite significantly in some aspects of their implementation, notably (1) the routing of water in the river channel and (2) the estimation of the temperature of groundwater discharging into the stream. For each one of these two aspects, we considered several of the standard modeling approaches reported in the literature and implemented them in a new modular framework. The latter is based on the spatially-distributed snow model Alpine3D, which is essentially used in the framework to compute the amount of water infiltrating in the upper soil layer. Starting from there, different methods can be selected for the computation of the water and energy fluxes in the hillslopes and in the river network. We relied on this framework to compare the various methodologies for river channel routing and groundwater temperature modeling. We notably assessed the impact of each these approaches on the long-term stream temperature predictions of the model under a typical climate change scenario. The case study was conducted over a high Alpine catchment in Switzerland, whose hydrological and thermal regimes are expected to be markedly affected by climate change. The results show that the various modeling approaches lead to significant differences in the

  9. Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions in river flood defences to uncertainty in climate impact analysis: A case study on the River Suir, Ireland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, N.; Murphy, C.

    2009-12-01

    Climate change presents a challenging environment for policy makers and planners as future climate projections are fraught with uncertainty. From the formulation of emissions scenarios, through to the output from Global Climate Models to the regional and then the local scale, uncertainty propagates and increases leading to a cascade of uncertainty (Jones, 2001). The level of flood defences for rivers in Ireland has been built to withstand the 1 in 100 year event based on the historic record. However, stream flow due to climate change is likely to increase by 20% in winter by mid century. The Office of Public Works has therefore revised their projections by adding 20% to the 1 in 100 year event as a design feature of their new flood defences. This poster presents a sensitivity analysis of how various aspects of the climate impact assessment affect the revised level of the 1 in 100 year flood. The River Suir is used as a case study. This poster aims to quantify how different aspects of climate impact assessment uncertainty (GCM, Emissions scenario, impact model) affect the revised level of the 1 in 100 year flood and evaluates if the design of flood defences remains robust to the this uncertainty. Authors. Nuala Murphy Conor Murphy

  10. Engendering Climate Information Networks in Africa: Case Studies of Digital and FM Radio for Disseminating Disaster Early Warnings to Women and Youth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stewart, M. M.; Pratt, M.

    2002-05-01

    This paper examines the effectiveness of FM and digital radio in disseminating weather and climate information to remote rural populations in Niger and Uganda. In Niger, poor communications infrastructure necessitated the establishment of a basic radio system as a first step towards disseminating climate information. Dissemination via digital radio is limited, in this context, by lack of technical support and the difficulty of maintaining computer equipment in the hot and dusty climate. Community FM stations have supported a range of mitigation activities that reduced vulnerability in all sites studied. Digital radio proved a more effective tool for disseminating climate information in Uganda, where technical knowledge is more prevalent and infrastructure networks are stronger. The primary challenge in Uganda lies in maintaining equipment in remote locations and disseminating information to a wider audience by linking with FM radio. Climate and weather information is already demonstrating positive impacts on agricultural production in Uganda, health and civil society in Niger, and on vulnerability reduction in both countries. Radio,particularly FM, was an excellent medium for disseminating information to women, youth, and other hard to reach populations. Discussion will focus on recommendations for improving the effectiveness of both systems and for practically linking FM and digital dissemination systems for better communication of climate information. Implications of the case studies will also be discussed in the context of digital and FM radio as media for disseminating other types of scientific information.

  11. Climate change adaptation options in rainfed upland cropping systems in the wet tropics: A case study of smallholder farms in North-West Cambodia.

    PubMed

    Touch, Van; Martin, Robert John; Scott, Jeannette Fiona; Cowie, Annette; Liu, De Li

    2016-11-01

    While climate change is confirmed to have serious impacts on agricultural production in many regions worldwide, researchers have proposed various measures that farmers can apply to cope with and adapt to those changes. However, it is often the case that not every adaptation measure would be practical and adoptable in a specific region. Farmers may have their own ways of managing and adapting to climate change that need to be taken into account when considering interventions. This study aimed to engage with farmers to: (1) better understand small-holder knowledge, attitudes and practices in relation to perceived or expected climate change; and (2) document cropping practices, climate change perceptions, constraints to crop production, and coping and adaptation options with existing climate variability and expected climate change. This study was conducted in 2015 in Sala Krau village near Pailin (12°52'N, 102°45'E) and Samlout (12°39'N, 102°36'E) of North-West Cambodia. The methods used were a combination of focus group discussions and one-on-one interviews where 132 farming households were randomly selected. We found that farmers were conscious of changes in climate over recent years, and had a good understanding of likely future changes. While farmers are aware of some practices that can be modified to minimize risk and cope with anticipated changes, they are reluctant to apply them. Furthermore; there are no government agricultural extension services provided at the village level and farmers have relied on each other and other actors in the value chain network for information to support their decision-making. There is a lack of knowledge of the principles of conservation agriculture that urgently require agricultural extension services in the region to build farmer ability to better cope and adapt to climate change.

  12. Local Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change and Local Adaptive Strategies: A Case Study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, Tibet, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Chunyan; Tang, Ya; Luo, Han; Di, Baofeng; Zhang, Liyun

    2013-10-01

    Climate change affects the productivity of agricultural ecosystems. Farmers cope with climate change based on their perceptions of changing climate patterns. Using a case study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, we present a new research framework that uses questionnaire and interview methods to compare local farmers' perceptions of climate change with the adaptive farming strategies they adopt. Most farmers in the valley believed that temperatures had increased in the last 30 years but did not note any changes in precipitation. Most farmers also reported sowing and harvesting hulless barley 10-15 days earlier than they were 20 years ago. In addition, farmers observed that plants were flowering and river ice was melting earlier in the season, but they did not perceive changes in plant germination, herbaceous vegetation growth, or other spring seasonal events. Most farmers noticed an extended fall season signified by delays in the freezing of rivers and an extended growing season for grassland vegetation. The study results showed that agricultural practices in the study area are still traditional; that is, local farmers' perceptions of climate change and their strategies to mitigate its impacts were based on indigenous knowledge and their own experiences. Adaptive strategies included adjusting planting and harvesting dates, changing crop species, and improving irrigation infrastructure. However, the farmers' decisions could not be fully attributed to their concerns about climate change. Local farming systems exhibit high adaptability to climate variability. Additionally, off-farm income has reduced the dependence of the farmers on agriculture, and an agricultural subsidy from the Chinese Central Government has mitigated the farmers' vulnerability. Nevertheless, it remains necessary for local farmers to build a system of adaptive climate change strategies that combines traditional experience and indigenous knowledge with scientific research and government

  13. Climate Change, Resource Management and Human Safety in the Watershed -The Nishinotani Stream Case Study, Kyushu; Japan-

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santiago-Fandiño, V.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is occurring already and heavy rain appears to be one of the many indicators. This requires revisiting the integration of resource management and policy making particularly in mountainous areas exposed to flashfloods with the view of increasing human safety too. Devastating flooding took place in the main island of Kyushu due to heavy rain during the second week of July 2012 causing major devastation in various watershed, cities and towns. This event has been tagged as unprecedented although a similar one with records of 27 inches of rain occurred in 1953 as reported in the literature and newspapers of the time. Levels of 7 inches per hour and about 31 inches of raining 72 hours were recorded in certain parts of the island causing most of the rivers to burst their banks, and produce large landslides in Kumamoto, Oita, Fukushima and Saga Prefectures. One of the many impacted upper watersheds belong to the Hoshino-Yokoyamawa river in the Minou Renzan mountains in Yame City; Fukuoka Prefecture. The Yokoyamawa waters flow downstream within high concrete walls with sporadic containments while receiving various affluents along its course. This type of embankment's design is typical of steep river courses and large seasonal discharge fluctuations, which is typical of many rivers in Japan. Along the embankments there are forest areas mainly of Japanese cedar (Sugi), bamboo trees as well as rice growing terraces and farmer houses. The lack of proper environmental management, safe planning by the local municipalities and peoples awareness came to light in many areas after the floods resulting in large damage. A particular case in point was identified in the Nishinotani stream, which feeds the Yokoyamawa River where a large farmer's house and rice field was built directly facing the stream flow direction. Furthermore, the municipality built a small bridge over the stream to allow for traffic. Both proved to be most inappropriate and unwise decisions causing

  14. Power Authority calls for wise investment in hydropower

    SciTech Connect

    Yould, E.P.

    1980-01-01

    Wise investment in hydropower is one of the most valuable long-term economic actions the state of Alaska can take. A review of the hydro projects shows that investigations needed for construction of the Susitna hydroelectric project will be initiated, while Green Lake and Solomon Gulch projects at Sitka and Valdez will enter their second construction season. Swan Lake and Terror Lake hydropower construction for Ketchikan and Kodiak will also be initiated in 1980 followed by Tyee Lake hydropower for Petersburg and Wrangell. Projects still under investigation which may prove feasible for construction in the future are at Cordova, Homer, Seward, Bristol Bay, the Tlingit-Haida area, the lower Kuskokwim and Yukon area, and at some smaller rural communities. Other communities may be able to develop wood or peat fueled generation, wile still others might be able to develop small tidal or wind power generation. The Alaska Power Authority is attempting to expedite these projects, and the end result should be a significant degree of electrical energy independence by the end of the next decade.

  15. Locally adapted space-wise grids from GOCE data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reguzzoni, Mirko; Gatti, Andrea; De Gaetani, Carlo; Migliaccio, Federica; Sansò, Fernando

    2014-05-01

    GOCE data are usually translated into a spherical harmonic global model that can be used to generate various functionals of the Earth's gravitational field. An alternative representation of the information coming from GOCE is to project the observed along-track gradients onto a spherical grid at mean satellite altitude. This is the solution pursued in this work by exploiting the so called space-wise approach. In particular, once the data are filtered along the orbit in order to reduce variance and correlation of the observation noise, a gridding procedure is implemented by least-squares collocation on local data patches. Crucial points are the new way in which data are subdivided and local covariances are modeled. Basically the idea is to consider clouds of observation points around each grid knot reducing as much as possible the data undersampling in order to catch their local information. Inside the point cloud a signal covariance model based on local degree variances is used. The method has been applied on a subset of GOCE data. The resulting grid values are compared with those synthesized from a global model based on the same observation time span, showing the differences between the two representations.

  16. OpWise: Operons aid the identification of differentially expressedgenes in bacterial microarray experiments

    SciTech Connect

    Price, Morgan N.; Arkin, Adam P.; Alm, Eric J.

    2005-11-23

    Differentially expressed genes are typically identified by analyzing the variation between replicate measurements. These procedures implicitly assume that there are no systematic errors in the data even though several sources of systematic error are known. Results-OpWise estimates the amount of systematic error in bacterial microarray data by assuming that genes in the same operon have matching expression patterns. OpWise then performs a Bayesian analysis of a linear model to estimate significance. In simulations, OpWise corrects for systematic error and is robust to deviations from its assumptions. In several bacterial data sets, significant amounts of systematic error are present, and replicate-based approaches overstate the confidence of the changers dramatically, while OpWise does not. Finally, OpWise can identify additional changers by assigning genes higher confidence if they are consistent with other genes in the same operon. Although microarray data can contain large amounts of systematic error, operons provide an external standard and allow for reasonable estimates of significance. OpWise is available at http://microbesonline.org/OpWise.

  17. Influence of historical land use transformation on the Greater Horn of Africa climate: Case Study over Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anyah, R. O.; Otieno, V. O.

    2010-12-01

    The behavior of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is largely influenced by its contact with the planetary surface. The land surface characteristics that include the surface roughness, albedo, moisture availability among others control the Land-atmosphere interaction. These surface conditions play a major role in turbulence transfer of mass, momentum and heat and provide a vital physical link between the atmosphere and the surface of the earth. In this study, we investigate relationship between land use/cover and regional patterns of precipitation and temperature over central highlands of the Greater Horn of Africa (Kenya) using both remote sensing techniques and model simulations. ERDAS imagine 9.3, a remote sensing tool, is employed in land use/land cover classification over Kenya for realistic model land cover representation. Idealized land use/cover scenarios (borrowing from the ERDAS classifications) are used in regional climate simulations (using RegCM3 model) since existing observations are inadequate to determine the extent and severity of historical land use changes. Our case study periods are for the years 1986, 1995 and 2000. We also focus on the two primary rainfall season over the study domain centered on March-April-May (MAM) and October-November-December (OND). Preliminary results shows areas of rainfall maximum over the western, central and coastal parts of Kenya tend to be co-located with Forest and agricultural zones. Analysis of precipitation variability over the years 1986, 1995 and 2000 in the neighborhood of inland lakes, in particular Lake Victoria (largest lake in Africa) shows persistent precipitation throughout the year. This we attribute to local convection induced by topography and Lake induced circulations and associated convection. Our analysis also shows a decline in MAM seasonal rainfall between the period 1986 to 2000 and a slight increase of OND seasonal rainfall over the same period. The decrease in MAM seasonal rainfall can be

  18. IBD-Groupon: an efficient method for detecting group-wise identity-by-descent regions simultaneously in multiple individuals based on pairwise IBD relationships

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Motivation: Detecting IBD tracts is an important problem in genetics. Most of the existing methods focus on detecting pairwise IBD tracts, which have relatively low power to detect short IBD tracts. Methods to detect IBD tracts among multiple individuals simultaneously, or group-wise IBD tracts, have better performance for short IBD tracts detection. Group-wise IBD tracts can be applied to a wide range of applications, such as disease mapping, pedigree reconstruction and so forth. The existing group-wise IBD tract detection method is computationally inefficient and is only able to handle small datasets, such as 20, 30 individuals with hundreds of SNPs. It also requires a previous specification of the number of IBD groups, or partitions of the individuals where all the individuals in the same partition are IBD with each other, which may not be realistic in many cases. The method can only handle a small number of IBD groups, such as two or three, because of scalability issues. What is more, it does not take LD (linkage disequilibrium) into consideration. Results: In this work, we developed an efficient method IBD-Groupon, which detects group-wise IBD tracts based on pairwise IBD relationships, and it is able to address all the drawbacks aforementioned. To our knowledge, our method is the first practical group-wise IBD tracts detection method that is scalable to very large datasets, for example, hundreds of individuals with thousands of SNPs, and in the meanwhile, it is powerful to detect short IBD tracts. Our method does not need to specify the number of IBD groups, which will be detected automatically. And our method takes LD into consideration, as it is based on pairwise IBD tracts where LD can be easily incorporated. Contact: dhe@us.ibm.com PMID:23812980

  19. Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions - a case study for Germany"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fokko Hattermann, Fred; Huang, Shaochun; Burghoff, Olaf; Hoffmann, Peter; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

    2016-07-01

    In our first study on possible flood damages under climate change in Germany, we reported that a considerable increase in flood-related losses can be expected in a future warmer climate. However, the general significance of the study was limited by the fact that outcome of only one global climate model (GCM) was used as a large-scale climate driver, while many studies report that GCMs are often the largest source of uncertainty in impact modelling. Here we show that a much broader set of global and regional climate model combinations as climate drivers show trends which are in line with the original results and even give a stronger increase of damages.

  20. Building America Case Study: Performance of a Hot-Dry Climate Whole House Retrofit, Stockton, California (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect

    ARBI

    2014-09-01

    The Stockton house retrofit is a two-story tudor style single family deep retrofit in the hot-dry climate of Stockton, CA. The home is representative of a deep retrofit option of the scaled home energy upgrade packages offered to targeted neighborhoods under the pilot Large-Scale Retrofit Program (LSRP) administered by the Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI). Deep retrofit packages expand on the standard package by adding HVAC, water heater and window upgrades to the ducting, attic and floor insulation, domestic hot water insulation, envelope sealing, lighting and ventilation upgrades. Site energy savings with the deep retrofit were 23% compared to the pre-retrofit case, and 15% higher than the savings estimated for the standard retrofit package. Energy savings were largely a result of the water heater upgrade, and a combination of the envelope sealing, insulation and HVAC upgrade. The HVAC system was of higher efficiency than the building code standard. Overall the financed retrofit would have been more cost effective had a less expensive HVAC system been selected and barriers to wall insulation remedied. The homeowner experienced improved comfort throughout the monitored period and was satisfied with the resulting utility bill savings.

  1. The Ĝ Infrared Search for Extraterrestrial Civilizations with Large Energy Supplies. III. The Reddest Extended Sources in WISE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffith, Roger L.; Wright, Jason T.; Maldonado, Jessica; Povich, Matthew S.; Sigurđsson, Steinn; Mullan, Brendan

    2015-04-01

    Nearby Type iii (galaxy-spanning) Kardashev supercivilizations would have high mid-infrared (MIR) luminosities. We have used the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) to survey ∼ 1× {{10}5} galaxies for extreme MIR emission, 1 × 103 times more galaxies than the only previous such search. We have calibrated the WISE All-sky Catalog pipeline products to improve their photometry for extended sources. We present 563 extended sources with |b|≥slant 10 and red MIR colors, having visually vetted them to remove artifacts. No galaxies in our sample host an alien civilization reprocessing more than 85% of its starlight into the MIR, and only 50 galaxies, including Arp 220, have MIR luminosities consistent with \\gt 50% reprocessing. Ninety of these (likely) extragalactic sources have little literature presence; in most cases, they are likely barely resolved galaxies or pairs of galaxies undergoing large amounts of star formation. Five are new to science and deserve further study. The Be star 48 Librae sits within a MIR nebula, and we suggest that it may be creating dust. WISE, 2MASS, and Spitzer imagery shows that IRAS 04287+6444 is consistent with a previously unnoticed, heavily extinguished cluster of young stellar objects. We identify five “passive” (i.e., red) spiral galaxies with unusually high MIR and low NUV luminosity. We search a set of H i dark galaxies for MIR emission and find none. These 90 poorly understood sources and 5 anomalous passive spirals deserve follow-up via both SETI and conventional astrophysics.

  2. Identifying stakeholder-relevant climate change impacts: a case study in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jenni, K.; Graves, D.; Hardiman, Jill M.; Hatten, James R.; Mastin, Mark C.; Mesa, Matthew G.; Montag, J.; Nieman, Timothy; Voss, Frank D.; Maule, Alec G.

    2014-01-01

    Designing climate-related research so that study results will be useful to natural resource managers is a unique challenge. While decision makers increasingly recognize the need to consider climate change in their resource management plans, and climate scientists recognize the importance of providing locally-relevant climate data and projections, there often remains a gap between management needs and the information that is available or is being collected. We used decision analysis concepts to bring decision-maker and stakeholder perspectives into the applied research planning process. In 2009 we initiated a series of studies on the impacts of climate change in the Yakima River Basin (YRB) with a four-day stakeholder workshop, bringing together managers, stakeholders, and scientists to develop an integrated conceptual model of climate change and climate change impacts in the YRB. The conceptual model development highlighted areas of uncertainty that limit the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and decision alternatives by those who will be most directly affected by those changes, and pointed to areas where additional study and engagement of stakeholders would be beneficial. The workshop and resulting conceptual model highlighted the importance of numerous different outcomes to stakeholders in the basin, including social and economic outcomes that go beyond the physical and biological outcomes typically reported in climate impacts studies. Subsequent studies addressed several of those areas of uncertainty, including changes in water temperatures, habitat quality, and bioenergetics of salmonid populations.

  3. Adapting to climate change despite scientific uncertainty: A case study of coastal protection from sea-level rise in Kiribati

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, S. D.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change adaptation is an increasing focus of international aid. At recent meetings of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the developed world agreed to rapidly increase international assistance to help developing countries, like the low-lying island nation of Kiribati, respond to the impacts of climate change. These emerging adaptation efforts must proceed despite the large and partially irreducible scientific uncertainty about the magnitude of those future climate impacts. In this study, we use the example of efforts to adapt to sea-level rise in Kiribati to document the challenges facing such internationally-funded climate change adaptation projects given the scientific uncertainty about climate impacts. Drawing on field and document research, we describe the scientific uncertainty about projected sea-level rise in Tarawa, the capital of Kiribati, how that uncertainty can create trade-offs between adaptation measures, and the social, political and economic context in which adaptation decisions must be made. The analysis shows there is no 'silver bullet' adaptation strategy in countries like Kiribati, given the long-term scientific uncertainty about sea-level rise and the environment of climate change aid. The existence of irreducible scientific uncertainty does not preclude effective climate change adaptation, but instead requires adaptation programs that embrace multiple strategies and planning horizons, and continually build on and re-adjust previous investments. This work highlights the importance of sustained international climate change financing, as proposed in UNFCCC negotiations.

  4. WISE TF: A MID-INFRARED, 3.4 {mu}m EXTENSION OF THE TULLY-FISHER RELATION USING WISE PHOTOMETRY

    SciTech Connect

    Lagattuta, David J.; Mould, Jeremy R.; Staveley-Smith, Lister; Hong Tao; Springob, Christopher M.; Masters, Karen L.; Koribalski, Baerbel S.; Jones, D. Heath

    2013-07-10

    We present a mid-infrared Tully-Fisher (TF) relation using photometry from the 3.4 {mu}m W1 band of the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) satellite. The WISE TF relation is formed from 568 galaxies taken from the all-sky 2MASS Tully-Fisher (2MTF) galaxy catalog, spanning a range of environments including field, group, and cluster galaxies. This constitutes the largest mid-infrared TF relation constructed to date. After applying a number of corrections to galaxy magnitudes and line widths, we measure a master TF relation given by M{sub corr} = -22.24 - 10.05[log (W{sub corr}) - 2.5], with an average dispersion of {sigma}{sub WISE} = 0.686 mag. There is some tension between WISE TF and a preliminary 3.6 {mu}m relation, which has a shallower slope and almost no intrinsic dispersion. However, our results agree well with a more recent relation constructed from a large sample of cluster galaxies. We additionally compare WISE TF to the near-infrared 2MTF template relations, finding a good agreement between the TF parameters and total dispersions of WISE TF and the 2MTF K-band template. This fact, coupled with typical galaxy colors of (K - W1) {approx} 0, suggests that these two bands are tracing similar stellar populations, including the older, centrally-located stars in the galactic bulge which can (for galaxies with a prominent bulge) dominate the light profile.

  5. Networks of Absolute Calibration Stars for SST, AKARI, and WISE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, M.

    2007-04-01

    I describe the Cohen-Walker-Witteborn (CWW) network of absolute calibration stars built to support ground-based, airborne, and space-based sensors, and how they are used to calibrate instruments on the SPITZER Space Telescope (SST and Japan's AKARI (formerly ASTRO-F), and to support NASA's planned MidEx WISE (the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer). All missions using this common calibration share a self-consistent framework embracing photometry and low-resolution spectroscopy. CWW also underpins COBE/DIRBE several instruments used on the Kuiper Airborne Observatory ({KAO}), the joint Japan-USA ``IR Telescope in Space" (IRTS) Near-IR and Mid-IR spectrometers, the European Space Agency's IR Space Observatory (ISO), and the US Department of Defense's Midcourse Space eXperiment (MSX). This calibration now spans the far-UV to mid-infrared range with Sirius (one specific Kurucz synthetic spectrum) as basis, and zero magnitude defined from another Kurucz spectrum intended to represent an ideal Vega (not the actual star with its pole-on orientation and mid-infrared dust excess emission). Precision 4-29 μm radiometric measurements on MSX validate CWW's absolute Kurucz spectrum of Sirius, the primary, and a set of bright K/MIII secondary standards. Sirius is measured to be 1.0% higher than predicted. CWW's definitions of IR zero magnitudes lie within 1.1% absolute of MSX measurements. The US Air Force Research Laboratory's independent analysis of on-orbit {MSX} stellar observations compared with emissive reference spheres show CWW primary and empirical secondary spectra lie well within the ±1.45% absolute uncertainty associated with this 15-year effort. Our associated absolute calibration for the InfraRed Array Camera (IRAC) on the SST lies within ˜2% of the recent extension of the calibration of the Hubble Space Telescope's STIS instrument to NICMOS (Bohlin, these Proceedings), showing the closeness of these two independent approaches to calibration.

  6. Integrated analysis of the climate change effects on water availability for catchment management. The case of the Ésera River (Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solera, Abel; Segura, Carlos; Bussi, Gianbattista; Momblanch, Andrea; Francés, Félix

    2014-05-01

    The analysis of the impact of climate change on water resources is of primary importance in Mediterranean Areas. Mean precipitation is expected to decrease, although an increase in its torrentiality is foreseen, and temperature is expected to increase. In addition, growing urban water demand and new environmental requirements also contribute to increase water stress. To achieve an improved use of water resources, new and detailed studies of the impact of the climate change are needed. Due to the high complexity of rainfall-runoff processes and the need to incorporate climate change effect in them, physically based distributed models are proposed as a tool for assessing and analysing the climate change impact on water discharge. In this case, the distributed conceptual TETIS model was employed. This model was previously calibrated and validated in order to reproduce the hydrological cycle of a Mediterranean-influenced catchment, the Ésera River (Spain), under current climate conditions. Then, the TETIS model was driven by the results of a climatic model (precipitation and temperature series) under three climatic scenarios: current climate (or control scenario), A2 and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Water discharge series were generated at different points of the catchment. The model results pointed out that a global decrease in water yield is devised, being around 33% and 37% for scenario A2 and B2 respectively. Water discharge series were subsequently used in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources and water use in the studied river basin. To do so, a water allocation model was built, calibrated and validated under current streamflow conditions for the Ésera River. It considered all the water management infrastructures, water uses and environmental requirements. The results from TETIS for the three different scenarios were introduced as inputs to the water management model, what allowed performing three simulations. The outcomes

  7. Estimating the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on alluvial aquifers. Case study in central Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Pica, Federico; Preziosi, Elisabetta

    2014-05-01

    There is evidence that the precipitation pattern in Europe is trending towards more humid conditions in the northern region and drier conditions in the southern and central-eastern regions. However, a great deal of uncertainty concerns how the changes in precipitations will have an impact on water resources, particularly on groundwater, and this uncertainty should be evaluated on the basis of that coming from 1) future climate scenarios of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and 2) modeling chains including the downscaling technique, the infiltration model and the calibration/validation procedure used to develop the groundwater flow model. With the aim of quantifying the uncertainty of these components, the Valle Umbra porous aquifer (Central Italy) has been considered as a case study. This aquifer, that is exploited for human consumption and irrigation, is mainly fed by the effective infiltration from the ground surface and partly by the inflow from the carbonate aquifers bordering the valley. A numerical groundwater flow model has been developed through the finite difference MODFLOW2005 code and it has been calibrated and validated considering the recharge regime computed through a Thornthwaite-Mather infiltration model under the climate conditions observed in the period 1956-2012. Future scenarios (2010-2070) of temperature and precipitation have been obtained from three different GMCs: ECHAM-5 (Max Planck Institute, Germany), PCM (National Centre Atmospheric Research) and CCSM3 (National Centre Atmospheric Research). Each scenario has been downscaled (DSC) to the data of temperature and precipitation collected in the baseline period 1960-1990 at the stations located in the study area through two different statistical techniques (linear rescaling and quantile mapping). Then, stochastic rainfall and temperature time series are generated through the Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses model (NSRP) for precipitation and the Fractionally Differenced ARIMA model (FARIMA

  8. Measuring Inviting School Climate: A Case Study of a Public Primary School in an Urban Low Socioeconomic Setting in Kenya

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Okaya, Tom Mboya; Horne, Marj; Lamig, Madeleine; Smith, Kenneth H.

    2013-01-01

    The present study utilized the Inviting School Survey-Revised (ISS-R) (Smith, 2005b, 2013) based on Invitational Theory and Practice (Purkey & Novak, 2008) to examine the school climate of a public primary school in a low urban socio-economic setting in Kenya. School climate was defined as the perceptions of primary school teachers and pupils…

  9. Engaging Visitors in Climate Change Communication: A Case Study of Southern Florida's National Parks and Wildlife Refuges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beard, Caroline A.; Thompson, Jessica Leigh

    2012-01-01

    Through the lens of place-based climate change communication, this manuscript compares results from internal and external assessments of capacity to communicate about climate change at national parks and refuges in southern Florida. The internal survey sample included agency staff, stakeholders, community partners, and concessionaires; the…

  10. The Influences of Leadership Style and School Climate to Faculty Psychological Contracts: A Case of S University in Taiwan

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chu, Hui-Chin; Fu, Chi-Jung

    2006-01-01

    This study was to investigate the impacts of leadership style and school climate on faculty psychological contracts. Demographic variables were also tested. The findings indicated that overall perceptions of the faculties toward leadership style, school climate, and psychological contract were favorable. Moreover, leadership style and school…

  11. Predicting future changes in climate and its impact on change in land use: a case study of Cauvery Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poyil, Rohith P.; Dhanalakshmi, S.; Goyal, Pramila

    2016-05-01

    The study involves the climate change prediction and its effects over a local sub grid scale of smaller area in Cauvery basin. The consequences of global warming due to anthropogenic activities are reflected in global as well as regional climate in terms of changes in key climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind speed. The key objectives of the study are to define statistical relationships between different climate parameters, to estimate the sensitivities of climate variables to future climate scenarios by integrating with GIS and to predict the land use/ land cover change under the climate change scenarios. The historical data set was analyzed to predict the climate change and its impact on land use/land cover (LULC) is observed by correlating the Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values for two different times for the same area. It is so evident that due to the rise in temperature there is a considerable change in the land use affecting the vegetation index; increased temperature results in very low NDVI values or vegetation abundance.

  12. The impact of climate change on water provision under a low flow regime: a case study of the ecosystems services in the Francoli river basin.

    PubMed

    Marquès, Montse; Bangash, Rubab Fatima; Kumar, Vikas; Sharp, Richard; Schuhmacher, Marta

    2013-12-15

    Mediterranean basin is considered one of the most vulnerable regions of the world to climate change and with high probability to face acute water scarcity problem in the coming years. Francolí River basin (NE Spain), located in this vulnerable region is selected as a case study to evaluate the impact of climate change on the delivery of water considering the IPCC scenarios A2 and B1 for the time spans 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. InVEST model is applied in a low flow river as a new case study, which reported successful results after its model validation. The studied hydrological ecosystem services will be highly impacted by climate change at Francolí River basin. Water yield is expected to be reduced between 11.5 and 44% while total drinking water provisioning will decrease between 13 and 50% having adverse consequences on the water quality of the river. Focusing at regional scale, Prades Mountains and Brugent Tributary provide most of the provision of water and also considered highly vulnerable areas to climate change. However, the most vulnerable part is the northern area which has the lowest provision of water. Francolí River basin is likely to experience desertification at this area drying Anguera and Vallverd tributaries.

  13. Choosing Wisely When It Comes to Eye Care: Antibiotics for Eye Injections

    MedlinePlus

    ... Stories Español Eye Health / News Choosing Wisely When It Comes to Eye Care, Part 4 Jun. 10, ... good vision and losing your eyesight. Sometimes, though, it is difficult to know how much eye care ...

  14. Choosing Wisely When It Comes to Eye Care: Punctal Plugs for Dry Eye

    MedlinePlus

    ... Stories Español Eye Health / News Choosing Wisely When It Comes to Eye Care, Part 5 Mar. 19, ... good vision and losing your eyesight. Sometimes, though, it is difficult to know how much eye care ...

  15. Characterizing the redshifts and luminosities of WISE selected obscured AGN using SALT optical spectra.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hviding, Raphael E.; Hickox, Ryan C.; Hainline, Kevin N.; Carroll, Christopher M.; DiPompeo, Mike A.; Jones, Mackenzie L.

    2016-08-01

    We present the results of several optical spectroscopic surveys covering over 100 candidate luminous obscured active galactic nuclei (AGN) identified by their mid-infrared emission detected with the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). These galaxies were selected based on red WISE colors and galaxy-like optical emission, and were studied using long-slit optical spectroscopy with the Robert Stobie Spectrograph (RSS) on the Southern African Large Telescope (SALT). Our spectra were analyzed to obtain redshifts and emission line flux ratios for each galaxy. These results verify that WISE is an effective section method for luminous obscured AGN, allow for the characterization of redshifts and luminosities of the WISE color selected obscured AGN population, and could potentially contribute to large statistical studies of obscured AGN distributions in the future.

  16. VizieR Online Data Catalog: WISE census of YSOs in Canis Major (Fischer+, 2016)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, W. J.; Padgett, D. L.; Stapelfeldt, K. L.; Sewilo, M.

    2016-11-01

    The AllWISE catalog (see II/328) combines data from the cryogenic and post-cryogenic phases of the initial WISE mission, covering the approximately 1yr period from 2010 January to 2011 January. We searched AllWISE in the 10°x10° square centered at 106.67° RA and -11.29° DEC. These are the approximate coordinates of HD53974 (FN CMa), a star that is roughly at the center of the CMa OB1 association. In the cryogenic mission, WISE obtained four-band photometry in this region between 2010 March 29 and April 11. Additional W1 and W2 photometry was obtained during the post-cryogenic mission, between 2010 October 7 and 20. (1 data file).

  17. Privacy Impact Assessment for the Registration and Tracking System for SunWise

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Registration and Tracking System for SunWise collects contact information and demographics about each educator. Learn how this data is collected, used, access to the data, the purpose of data collection, and record retention policies.

  18. VizieR Online Data Catalog: SVM selection of WISE YSO Candidates (Marton+, 2016)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marton, G.; Toth, L. V.; Paladini, R.; Kun, M.; Zahorecz, S.; McGehee, P.; Kiss, C.

    2016-02-01

    Two tables containing information on 133,980 Class I/II YSO candidates and 608,606 Class III+ candidates, selected with Support Vector Machine from the AllWISE data release. Data are photometry and quality indicators as listed in the AllWISE catalogue and used during the classification process. Additional columns are the SIMBAD identifiers, the SIMBAD main type of the objects (where a counterpart was found within 5" radius with respect to the AllWISE position) and the distance between the AllWISE position and the SIMBAD position. The last column lists the Planck R1.2 dust optical depth value (Planck Collaboration, 2014) estimated at the position of each source. (2 data files).

  19. Farmers' perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants; the case of Punjab province, Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abid, M.; Scheffran, J.; Schneider, U. A.; Ashfaq, M.

    2014-10-01

    Climate change is a global environmental threat to all economic sectors, particularly the agricultural sector. Pakistan is one of the negatively affected countries from climate change due to its high exposure to extreme events and low adaptive capacity. In Pakistan, farmers are the primary stakeholders in agriculture and are more at risk due to climate vulnerability. Based on farm household data of 450 households collected from three districts in three agro-ecological zones in Punjab province of Pakistan, this study examined how farmers perceive climate change and how they adapt their farming in response to perceived changes in climate. The results demonstrate that awareness to climate change persists in the area, and farm households make adjustments to adapt their agriculture in response to climatic change. Overall 58% of the farm households adapted their farming to climate change. Changing crop varieties, changing planting dates, plantation of trees and changing fertilizer were the main adaptation methods implemented by farm households in the study area. Results from the binary logistic model revealed that education, farm experience, household size, land area, tenancy status, ownership of tube-well, access to market information, information on weather forecasting and extension all influence the farmers' choice of adaptation measures. Results also indicate that adaptation to climate change is constrained by several factors such as lack of information; lack of money; resource constraint and shortage of irrigation water in the study area. Findings of the study suggest the need of greater investment in farmer education and improved institutional setup for climate change adaptation to improve farmers' wellbeing.

  20. Farmers' perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants: the case of Punjab province, Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abid, M.; Scheffran, J.; Schneider, U. A.; Ashfaq, M.

    2015-05-01

    Climate change is a global environmental threat to all economic sectors, particularly the agricultural sector. Pakistan is one of the countries negatively affected by climate change due to its high exposure to extreme events and low adaptive capacity. In Pakistan, farmers are the primary stakeholders in agriculture and are more at risk due to climate vulnerability. Based on farm household data from 450 households collected from three districts in three agroecological zones in the Punjab province of Pakistan, this study examines how farmers perceive climate change and how they adapt their farming in response to perceived changes in climate. The results demonstrate that awareness of climate change is widespread throughout the area, and farm households make adjustments to adapt their agriculture in response to climatic change. Overall 58% of the farm households adapted their farming to climate change. Changing crop varieties, changing planting dates, planting of shade trees and changing fertilizers were the main adaptation methods implemented by farm households in the study area. The results from the binary logistic model reveal that education, farm experience, household size, land area, tenancy status, ownership of a tube well, access to market information, information on weather forecasting and agricultural extension services all influence farmers' choices of adaptation measures. The results also indicate that adaptation to climate change is constrained by several factors such as lack of information, lack of money, resource constraints and shortage of irrigation water in the study area. Findings of the study suggest the need for greater investment in farmer education and improved institutional setup for climate change adaptation to improve farmers' wellbeing.

  1. Validation of a model with climatic and flow scenario analysis: case of Lake Burrumbeet in southeastern Australia.

    PubMed

    Yihdego, Yohannes; Webb, John

    2016-05-01

    Forecast evaluation is an important topic that addresses the development of reliable hydrological probabilistic forecasts, mainly through the use of climate uncertainties. Often, validation has no place in hydrology for most of the times, despite the parameters of a model are uncertain. Similarly, the structure of the model can be incorrectly chosen. A calibrated and verified dynamic hydrologic water balance spreadsheet model has been used to assess the effect of climate variability on Lake Burrumbeet, southeastern Australia. The lake level has been verified to lake level, lake volume, lake surface area, surface outflow and lake salinity. The current study aims to increase lake level confidence model prediction through historical validation for the year 2008-2013, under different climatic scenario. Based on the observed climatic condition (2008-2013), it fairly matches with a hybridization of scenarios, being the period interval (2008-2013), corresponds to both dry and wet climatic condition. Besides to the hydrologic stresses uncertainty, uncertainty in the calibrated model is among the major drawbacks involved in making scenario simulations. In line with this, the uncertainty in the calibrated model was tested using sensitivity analysis and showed that errors in the model can largely be attributed to erroneous estimates of evaporation and rainfall, and surface inflow to a lesser. The study demonstrates that several climatic scenarios should be analysed, with a combination of extreme climate, stream flow and climate change instead of one assumed climatic sequence, to improve climate variability prediction in the future. Performing such scenario analysis is a valid exercise to comprehend the uncertainty with the model structure and hydrology, in a meaningful way, without missing those, even considered as less probable, ultimately turned to be crucial for decision making and will definitely increase the confidence of model prediction for management of the water

  2. Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile).

    PubMed

    Orrego, R; Abarca-Del-Río, R; Ávila, A; Morales, L

    2016-01-01

    Climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962-1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070-2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°-40°S and 71°-74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns such as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.

  3. WISE J163940.83-684738.6: A Y DWARF IDENTIFIED BY METHANE IMAGING

    SciTech Connect

    Tinney, C. G.; Salter, Graeme; Faherty, Jacqueline K.; Kirkpatrick, J. Davy; Gelino, Christopher R.; Griffith, Roger L.; Wright, Edward L.; Cushing, Michael C.

    2012-11-01

    We have used methane imaging techniques to identify the near-infrared counterpart of the bright Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) source WISE J163940.83-684738.6. The large proper motion of this source ( Almost-Equal-To 3.''0 yr{sup -1}) has moved it, since its original WISE identification, very close to a much brighter background star-it currently lies within 1.''5 of the J = 14.90 {+-} 0.04 star 2MASS 16394085-6847446. Observations in good seeing conditions using methane-sensitive filters in the near-infrared J band with the FourStar instrument on the Magellan 6.5 m Baade telescope, however, have enabled us to detect a near-infrared counterpart. We have defined a photometric system for use with the FourStar J2 and J3 filters, and this photometry indicates strong methane absorption, which unequivocally identifies it as the source of the WISE flux. Using these imaging observations we were then able to steer this object down the slit of the Folded-port Infrared Echellette spectrograph on a night of 0.''6 seeing, and so obtain near-infrared spectroscopy confirming a Y0-Y0.5 spectral type. This is in line with the object's near-infrared-to-WISE J3 - W2 color. Preliminary astrometry using both WISE and FourStar data indicates a distance of 5.0 {+-} 0.5 pc and a substantial tangential velocity of 73 {+-} 8 km s{sup -1}. WISE J163940.83-684738.6 is the brightest confirmed Y dwarf in the WISE W2 passband and its distance measurement places it among the lowest luminosity sources detected to date.

  4. Using expert opinion to prioritize impacts of climate change on sea turtles' nesting grounds.

    PubMed

    Fuentes, M M P B; Cinner, J E

    2010-12-01

    Managers and conservationists often need to prioritize which impacts from climate change to deal with from a long list of threats. However, data which allows comparison of the relative impact from climatic threats for decision-making is often unavailable. This is the case for the management of sea turtles in the face of climate change. The terrestrial life stages of sea turtles can be negatively impacted by various climatic processes, such as sea level rise, altered cyclonic activity, and increased sand temperatures. However, no study has systematically investigated the relative impact of each of these climatic processes, making it challenging for managers to prioritize their decisions and resources. To address this we offer a systematic method for eliciting expert knowledge to estimate the relative impact of climatic processes on sea turtles' terrestrial reproductive phase. For this we used as an example the world's largest population of green sea turtles and asked 22 scientists and managers to answer a paper based survey with a series of pair-wise comparison matrices that compared the anticipated impacts from each climatic process. Both scientists and managers agreed that increased sand temperature will likely cause the most threat to the reproductive output of the nGBR green turtle population followed by sea level rise, then altered cyclonic activity. The methodology used proved useful to determine the relative impact of the selected climatic processes on sea turtles' reproductive output and provided valuable information for decision-making. Thus, the methodological approach can potentially be applied to other species and ecosystems of management concern.

  5. WISE Y dwarfs as probes of the brown dwarf-exoplanet connection

    SciTech Connect

    Beichman, C.; Gelino, Christopher R.; Kirkpatrick, J. Davy; Cushing, Michael C.; Dodson-Robinson, Sally; Marley, Mark S.; Morley, Caroline V.; Wright, E. L.

    2014-03-10

    We have determined astrometric positions for 15 WISE-discovered late-type brown dwarfs (six T8-9 and nine Y dwarfs) using the Keck-II telescope, the Spitzer Space Telescope, and the Hubble Space Telescope. Combining data from 8 to 20 epochs we derive parallactic and proper motions for these objects, which puts the majority within 15 pc. For ages greater than a few Gyr, as suggested from kinematic considerations, we find masses of 10-30 M {sub Jup} based on standard models for the evolution of low-mass objects with a range of mass estimates for individual objects, depending on the model in question. Three of the coolest objects have effective temperatures ∼350 K and inferred masses of 10-15 M {sub Jup}. Our parallactic distances confirm earlier photometric estimates and direct measurements and suggest that the number of objects with masses below about 15 M {sub Jup} must be flat or declining, relative to higher mass objects. The masses of the coldest Y dwarfs may be similar to those inferred for recently imaged planet-mass companions to nearby young stars. Objects in this mass range, which appear to be rare in both the interstellar and protoplanetary environments, may both have formed via gravitational fragmentation—the brown dwarfs in interstellar clouds and companion objects in a protoplanetary disk. In both cases, however, the fact that objects in this mass range are relatively infrequent suggests that this mechanism must be inefficient in both environments.

  6. Climate downscaling effects on predictive ecological models: a case study for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bucklin, David N.; Watling, James I.; Speroterra, Carolina; Brandt, Laura A.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romañach, Stephanie S.

    2013-01-01

    High-resolution (downscaled) projections of future climate conditions are critical inputs to a wide variety of ecological and socioeconomic models and are created using numerous different approaches. Here, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of spatial predictions from climate envelope models for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States to determine whether two different downscaling approaches (with and without the use of a regional climate model) affect climate envelope model predictions when all other sources of variation are held constant. We found that prediction maps differed spatially between downscaling approaches and that the variation attributable to downscaling technique was comparable to variation between maps generated using different general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation variables tended to show greater discrepancies between downscaling techniques than temperature variables, and for one GCM, there was evidence that more poorly resolved precipitation variables contributed relatively more to model uncertainty than more well-resolved variables. Our work suggests that ecological modelers requiring high-resolution climate projections should carefully consider the type of downscaling applied to the climate projections prior to their use in predictive ecological modeling. The uncertainty associated with alternative downscaling methods may rival that of other, more widely appreciated sources of variation, such as the general circulation model or emissions scenario with which future climate projections are created.

  7. The Impact of Historically Documented Land-use Changes On The Short-term Mesoscale Climate: A Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, N.; Eugster, W.; Schichler, B.

    In the first half of the 19th century land use and land cover in the three-lakes region on the Swiss Plateau was dramatically modified. Most of the formerly marshy and frequently inundated plains were drained and replaced by nowadays intensively used agricultural land. This case study investigates the effect of documented land-use and land-cover changes on the short-term climate (1-2 days) of typical summer days in July. In order to eval- uate the influences, a mesoscale dynamical non-hydrostatic model was used with a horizontal resolution of 500×500 m2, nested in a coarser grid of 10×10 km2. For both landscapes, the same atmospheric data were used for initial and border conditions. It was found that the impact of the land use on temperature and humidity in the at- mospheric boundary layer varies considerably with time, with significant changes oc- curring during daytime, peaking in the afternoon. However, the temporal occurrence of the changes also varied with the height above ground. The boundary-layer height over the region of landscape transformation was higher under past than present land- use conditions. In contrast to the simulated changes during daytime, the differences in nocturnal conditions were negligibly small. Furthermore, the question of how far the changes extended beyond the area of direct landscape transformation is adressed. Finally, it is discussed how the changes in the lowest few meters of the atmospheric boundary layer could possibly have affected the life of human beings in the area in- vestigated.

  8. Preferences for public involvement in health service decisions: a comparison between best-worst scaling and trio-wise stated preference elicitation techniques.

    PubMed

    Erdem, Seda; Campbell, Danny

    2016-12-10

    Stated preference elicitation techniques, such as discrete choice experiments and best-worst scaling, are now widely used in health research to explore the public's choices and preferences. In this paper, we propose an alternative stated preference elicitation technique, which we refer to as 'trio-wise'. We explain this new technique, its relative advantages, modeling framework, and how it compares to the best-worst scaling method. To better illustrate the differences and similarities, we utilize best-worst scaling Case 2, where individuals make best and worst (most and least) choices for the attribute levels that describe a single profile. We demonstrate this new preference elicitation technique using an empirical case study that explores preferences among the general public for ways to involve them in decisions concerning the health care system. Our findings show that the best-worst scaling and trio-wise preference elicitation techniques both retrieve similar preferences. However, the capability of our trio-wise method to provide additional information on the strength of rank preferences and its ability to accommodate indifferent preferences lead us to prefer it over the standard best-worst scaling technique.

  9. Urban Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Europe: A Case Study for Antwerp, Berlin and Almada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevens, Catherine; Thomas, Bart

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is driven by global processes such as the global ocean circulation and its variability over time leading to changing weather patterns on regional scales as well as changes in the severity and occurrence of extreme events such as heat waves. For example, the summer 2003 European heat wave caused up to 70.000 excess deaths over four months in Central and Western Europe. As around 75% of Europe's population resides in urban areas, it is of particular relevance to examine the impact of seasonal to decadal-scale climate variability on urban areas and their populations. This study aims at downscaling the spatially coarse resolution CMIP5 climate predictions to the local urban scale and investigating the relation between heat waves and the urban-rural temperature increment (urban heat island effect). The resulting heat stress effect is not only driven by climatic variables but also impacted by urban morphology. Moreover, the exposure varies significantly with the geographical location. All this information is coupled with relevant socio-economic datasets such as population density, age structure, etc. focussing on human health. The analyses are conducted in the framework of the NACLIM FP7 project funded by the European Commission involving local stakeholders such as the cities of Antwerp (BE), Berlin (DE) and Almada (PT) represented by different climate and urban characteristics. The end-user needs have been consolidated in a climate services plan including the production of heat risk exposure maps and the analysis of various scenarios considering e.g. the uncertainty of the global climate predictions, urban expansion over time and the impact of mitigation measures such as green roofs. The results of this study will allow urban planners and policy makers facing the challenges of climate change and develop sound strategies for the design and management of climate resilient cities.

  10. Space-Wise approach for airborne gravity data modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sampietro, D.; Capponi, M.; Mansi, A. H.; Gatti, A.; Marchetti, P.; Sansò, F.

    2016-12-01

    Regional gravity field modelling by means of remove-compute-restore procedure is nowadays widely applied in different contexts: it is the most used technique for regional gravimetric geoid determination, and it is also used in exploration geophysics to predict grids of gravity anomalies (Bouguer, free-air, isostatic, etc.), which are useful to understand and map geological structures in a specific region. Considering this last application, due to the required accuracy and resolution, airborne gravity observations are usually adopted. However, due to the relatively high acquisition velocity, presence of atmospheric turbulence, aircraft vibration, instrumental drift, etc., airborne data are usually contaminated by a very high observation error. For this reason, a proper procedure to filter the raw observations in both the low and high frequencies should be applied to recover valuable information. In this work, a software to filter and grid raw airborne observations is presented: the proposed solution consists in a combination of an along-track Wiener filter and a classical Least Squares Collocation technique. Basically, the proposed procedure is an adaptation to airborne gravimetry of the Space-Wise approach, developed by Politecnico di Milano to process data coming from the ESA satellite mission GOCE. Among the main differences with respect to the satellite application of this approach, there is the fact that, while in processing GOCE data the stochastic characteristics of the observation error can be considered a-priori well known, in airborne gravimetry, due to the complex environment in which the observations are acquired, these characteristics are unknown and should be retrieved from the dataset itself. The presented solution is suited for airborne data analysis in order to be able to quickly filter and grid gravity observations in an easy way. Some innovative theoretical aspects focusing in particular on the theoretical covariance modelling are presented too

  11. [Percutaneous closure of patent foramen ovale: a wise approach].

    PubMed

    Gaspardone, Achille; Iani, Cesare; Papa, Marco

    2008-09-01

    support transcatheter PFO closure for prevention of cryptogenic stroke recurrence as well as for migraine therapy, and considering that the procedure is not riskless (major complications occurring in 1.5-2% of patients whose PFO was closed), a very prudent and wise approach is imperative in individual patients when this therapeutic strategy is carried out.

  12. Applying Climate Compatible Development and economic valuation to coastal management: A case study of Kenya's mangrove forests.

    PubMed

    Huxham, Mark; Emerton, Lucy; Kairo, James; Munyi, Fridah; Abdirizak, Hassan; Muriuki, Tabitha; Nunan, Fiona; Briers, Robert A

    2015-07-01

    Mangrove forests are under global pressure. Habitat destruction and degradation persist despite longstanding recognition of the important ecological functions of mangroves. Hence new approaches are needed to help stakeholders and policy-makers achieve sound management that is informed by the best science. Here we explore how the new policy concept of Climate Compatible Development (CCD) can be applied to achieve better outcomes. We use economic valuation approaches to combine socio-economic data, projections of forest cover based on quantitative risk mapping and storyline scenario building exercises to articulate the economic consequences of plausible alternative future scenarios for the mangrove forests of the South Kenya coast, as a case study of relevance to many other areas. Using data from 645 household surveys, 10 focus groups and 74 interviews conducted across four mangrove sites, and combining these with information on fish catches taken at three landing sites, a mangrove carbon trading project and published data allowed us to make a thorough (although still partial) economic valuation of the forests. This gave a current value of the South Coast mangroves of USD 6.5 million, or USD 1166 ha(-1), with 59% of this value on average derived from regulating services. Quantitative risk mapping, projecting recent trends over the next twenty years, suggests a 43% loss of forest cover over that time with 100% loss at the most vulnerable sites. Much of the forest lost between 1992 and 2012 has not been replaced by high value alternative land uses hence restoration of these areas is feasible and may not involve large opportunity costs. We invited thirty eight stakeholders to develop plausible storyline scenarios reflecting Business as Usual (BAU) and CCD - which emphasises sustainable forest conservation and management - in twenty years time, drawing on local and regional expert knowledge of relevant policy, social trends and cultures. Combining these scenarios with

  13. Decadal Climate Information Needs of Stakeholders for Decision Support in Water and Agriculture Production Sectors: A Case Study in the Missouri River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehta, V. M.; Knutson, C.; Rosenberg, N.

    2012-12-01

    Many decadal climate prediction efforts have been initiated under the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. There is considerable ongoing discussion about model deficiencies, initialization techniques, and data requirements, but not much attention is being given to decadal climate information (DCI) needs of stakeholders for decision support. We report the results of exploratory activities undertaken to assess DCI needs in water resources and agriculture sectors, using the Missouri River Basin (the Basin) as a case study. This assessment was achieved through discussions with 120 representative stakeholders. Stakeholders' awareness of decadal dry and wet spells and their societal impacts in the Basin is established; and stakeholders' DCI needs and potential barriers to their use of DCI are enumerated. We find that impacts, including economic impacts, of DCV on water and agricultural production in the Basin are distinctly identifiable and characterizable. Stakeholders have clear notions about their needs for DCI and have offered specific suggestions as to how these might be met. But, while stakeholders are eager to have climate information, including decadal climate outlooks (DCOs), there are many barriers to the use of such information. The first and foremost is that the credibility of DCOs is yet to be established. Secondly, the nature of institutional rules and regulations, laws, and legal precedents that pose obstacles to the use of DCOs must be better understood and means to modify these, where possible, must be sought. For the benefit of climate scientists, these and other stakeholder needs will also be articulated in this talk. We are engaged in a project to assess simulation and hindcast skills of DCV phenomena and their associations with hydro-meteorological variability in the Basin in the HadCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, NCAR CCSM4, and MIROC5 global coupled models participating in the WCRP's CMIP5 project. Results from this project

  14. On The Suitability of Air Temperature as a Predictive Tool for Lake Surface Temperature in a Changing Climate: A Case Study for Lake Tahoe, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Healey, N.; Piccolroaz, S.; Hook, S. J.; Toffolon, M.; Lenters, J. D.; Schladow, G.

    2015-12-01

    The ability to predict surface water temperature is essential toward understanding how future climate scenarios will impact inland water bodies such as lakes. Numerous predictive models have been developed to perform this task although many require inputs whose future model prediction is usually associated with large uncertainties, such as e.g., precipitation, cloudiness, wind and radiative fluxes. Conversely, air temperature is one of the most widely available variables in projections from Global Climate Models (GCMs). The predictive model air2water relies solely on air temperature data to predict lake surface temperature. The objective of this study is to demonstrate that air2water can be used as a predictive tool for climate change scenarios through a case study focused on Lake Tahoe, CA/NV, USA. Lake Tahoe has been selected due to extensive historical in-situ measurements that have been collected at that location since 1967 which we utilize to calibrate and validate air2water, and evaluate its performance. For model runs, we utilize different sources of air temperature data (buoys, land-based weather stations, GCMs) to establish how robustly air2water performs. We employ air temperature data from a combination of global gridded datasets including Climate Research Unit (CRU) TS3.21 (historical), and GCM output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) model (future) with representative concentration pathways of 4.5 and 8.5. Here, we present results from air2water predictions of the relationship between air and water temperature that demonstrate how this model is able to replicate trends on seasonal and interannual timescales. This finding shows promise toward understanding the impacts of future climate change on lakes and to expanding our study to lake surface temperatures globally.

  15. Impacts of Climate and Land-cover Changes on Water Resources in a Humid Subtropical Watershed: a Case Study from East Texas, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heo, J.

    2015-12-01

    This study investigates an interconnected system of climate change - land cover - water resources for a watershed in humid subtropical climate from 1970 to 2009. A 0.7°C increase in temperature and a 16.3% increase in precipitation were observed in our study area where temperature had no obvious increase trend and precipitation showed definite increasing trend compared to previous studies. The main trend of land-cover change was conversion of vegetation and barren lands to developed and crop lands affected by human intervention, and forest and grass to bush/shrub which considered to be caused by natural climate system. Precipitation contribution to the other hydrologic parameters for a humid subtropical basin is estimated to be 51.9% of evapotranspiration, 16.3% of surface runoff, 0.9% of groundwater discharge, 19.3% of soil water content, and 11.6% of water storage. It shows little higher evapotranspiration and considerably lower surface runoff compare to other humid climate area due to vegetation dominance of land cover. Hydrologic responses to climate and land cover changes are increases of surface runoff, soil water content, evapotranspiration by 15.0%, 2.7%, and 20.1%, respectively, and decrease of groundwater discharge decreased by 9.2%. Surface runoff is relatively stable with precipitation while groundwater discharge and soil water content are sensitive to land cover changes especially human intervention. If temperature is relatively stable, it is considered to be land cover plays important role in evapotranspiration. Citation: Heo, J., J. Yu, J. R. Giardino, and H. Cho (2015), Impacts of climate and land-cover changes on water resources in a humid subtropical watershed: a case study from East Texas, USA, Water Environ. J., 29, doi:10.1111/wej.12096

  16. Assessing climate change impacts on wetlands in a flow regulated catchment: A case study in the Macquarie Marshes, Australia.

    PubMed

    Fu, Baihua; Pollino, Carmel A; Cuddy, Susan M; Andrews, Felix

    2015-07-01

    Globally wetlands are increasingly under threat due to changes in water regimes as a result of river regulation and climate change. We developed the Exploring CLimAte Impacts on Management (EXCLAIM) decision support system (DSS), which simulates flow-driven habitat condition for 16 vegetation species, 13 waterbird species and 4 fish groups in the Macquarie catchment, Australia. The EXCLAIM DSS estimates impacts to habitat condition, considering scenarios of climate change and water management. The model framework underlying the DSS is a probabilistic Bayesian network, and this approach was chosen to explicitly represent uncertainties in climate change scenarios and predicted ecological outcomes. The results suggest that the scenario with no climate change and no water resource development (i.e. flow condition without dams, weirs or water license entitlements, often regarded as a surrogate for 'natural' flow) consistently has the most beneficial outcomes for vegetation, waterbird and native fish. The 2030 dry climate change scenario delivers the poorest ecological outcomes overall, whereas the 2030 wet climate change scenario has beneficial outcomes for waterbird breeding, but delivers poor outcomes for river red gum and black box woodlands, and fish that prefer river channels as habitats. A formal evaluation of the waterbird breeding model showed that higher numbers of observed nest counts are typically associated with higher modelled average breeding habitat conditions. The EXCLAIM DSS provides a generic framework to link hydrology and ecological habitats for a large number of species, based on best available knowledge of their flood requirements. It is a starting point towards developing an integrated tool for assessing climate change impacts on wetland ecosystems.

  17. Electricity Consumption Risk Map - The use of Urban Climate Mapping for smarter analysis: Case study for Birmingham, UK.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antunes Azevedo, Juliana; Burghardt, René; Chapman, Lee; Katzchner, Lutz; Muller, Catherine L.

    2015-04-01

    Climate is a key driving factor in energy consumption. However, income, vegetation, building mass structure, topography also impact on the amount of energy consumption. In a changing climate, increased temperatures are likely to lead to increased electricity consumption, affecting demand, distribution and generation. Furthermore, as the world population becomes more urbanized, increasing numbers of people will need to deal with not only increased temperatures from climate change, but also from the unintentional modification of the urban climate in the form of urban heat islands. Hence, climate and climate change needs to be taken into account for future urban planning aspects to increase the climate and energy resilience of the community and decrease the future social and economic costs. Geographical Information Systems provide a means to create urban climate maps as part of the urban planning process. Geostatistical analyses linking these maps with demographic and social data, enables a geo-statistical analysis to identify linkages to high-risk groups of the community and vulnerable areas of town and cities. Presently, the climatope classification is oriented towards thermal aspects and the ventilation quality (roughness) of the urban areas but can also be adapted to take into account other structural "environmental factors". This study aims to use the climatope approach to predict areas of potential high electricity consumption in Birmingham, UK. Several datasets were used to produce an average surface temperature map, vegetation map, land use map, topography map, building height map, built-up area roughness calculations, an average air temperature map and a domestic electricity consumption map. From the correlations obtained between the layers it is possible to average the importance of each factor and create a map for domestic electricity consumption to understand the influence of environmental aspects on spatial energy consumption. Based on these results city

  18. The ecology of Anopheles mosquitoes under climate change: case studies from the effects of deforestation in East African highlands.

    PubMed

    Afrane, Yaw A; Githeko, Andrew K; Yan, Guiyun

    2012-02-01

    Climate change is expected to lead to latitudinal and altitudinal temperature increases. High-elevation regions such as the highlands of Africa and those that have temperate climate are most likely to be affected. The highlands of Africa generally exhibit low ambient temperatures. This restricts the distribution of Anopheles mosquitoes, the vectors of malaria, filariasis, and O'nyong'nyong fever. The development and survival of larval and adult mosquitoes are temperature dependent, as are mosquito biting frequency and pathogen development rate. Given that various Anopheles species are adapted to different climatic conditions, changes in climate could lead to changes in species composition in an area that may change the dynamics of mosquito-borne disease transmission. It is important to consider the effect of climate change on rainfall, which is critical to the formation and persistence of mosquito breeding sites. In addition, environmental changes such as deforestation could increase local temperatures in the highlands; this could enhance the vectorial capacity of the Anopheles. These experimental data will be invaluable in facilitating the understanding of the impact of climate change on Anopheles.

  19. Recovery of coastal ecosystems after large tsunamis in various climatic zones - review of cases from tropical, temperate and polar zones (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szczucinski, W.

    2013-12-01

    Large tsunamis cause significant changes in coastal ecosystems. They include modifications in shoreline position, sediment erosion and deposition, new initial soil formation, salination of soils and waters, removal of vegetation, as well as direct impact on humans and infrastructure. The processes and rate of coastal zone recovery from large tsunamis has been little studied but during the last decade a noteworthy progress has been made. This study focus on comparison of recovery processes in various climatic zones, namely in monsoonal-tropical, temperate and polar zone. It is based on own observation and monitoring in areas affected by 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in Thailand, 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami in Japan and 2000 Paatuut landslide-generated tsunami in Vaigat Strait (west Greenland), as well as on review of published studies from those areas. The particular focus is on physical and biological recoveries of beaches, recovery of coastal vegetation, new soil formation in eroded areas and those covered by tsunami deposits, marine salt removal from soils, surface- and groundwater, as well as landscape adjustment after the tsunamis. The beach zone - typically the most tsunami-eroded zone, has been recovered already within weeks to months and has been observed to be in the pre-tsunami equilibrium stage within one year in all the climate zones, except for sediment-starved environments. The existing data on beach ecosystems point also to relatively fast recovery of meio- and macrofauna (within weeks to several months). The recovery of coastal vegetation depends on the rate of salt removal from soils or on the rate of soil formation in case of its erosion or burial by tsunami deposits. The salt removal have been observed to depend mainly on precipitation and effective water drainage. In tropical climate with seasonal rainfall of more 3000 mm the salt removal was fast, however, in temperate climate with lower precipitation and flat topography the salinities still exceeded

  20. VizieR Online Data Catalog: The AllWISE motion survey (AllWISE2) (Kirkpatrick+, 2016)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirkpatrick, J. D.; Kellogg, K.; Schneider, A. C.; Fajardo-Acosta, S.; Cushing, M. C.; Greco, J.; Mace, G. N.; Gelino, C. R.; Wright, E. L.; Eisenhardt, P. R. M.; Stern, D.; Faherty, J. K.; Sheppard, S. S.; Lansbury, G. B.; Logsdon, S. E.; Martin, E. C.; McLean, I. S.; Schurr, S. D.; Cutri, R. M.; Conrow, T.

    2016-07-01

    Observations for the spectroscopic follow-up of interesting AllWISE sources are listed in Table 4. Optical follow-up was conducted with the Palomar/Double Spectrograph on the Hale 5m telescope on Palomar Mountain, California, as our primary optical spectrograph in the northern hemisphere. It was used during the UT nights of 2014 January 26, February 23/24, April 22, June 25/26, July 21, September 27, October 24, and November 15 as well as 2015 June 08, September 07, and December 10. The Boller & Chivens Spectrograph (BCSpec) on the 2.5m Irenee duPont telescope at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile, served as our primary optical spectrograph in the southern hemisphere and was used on the UT nights of 2014 April 30, May 01-04, and November 16-20. Spectra of 10 objects were obtained on the UT nights of 2014 July 03-04 and 2015 December 07-10 at the European Southern Observatory (ESO) 3.58m New Technology Telescope (NTT) at La Silla, Chile. Spectra of seven objects were obtained on the UT nights of 2014 June 26, 2015 August 13, and 2015 December 05 with the Low Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (LRIS) at the 10m W. M. Keck Observatory on Mauna Kea, Hawaii. SpeX on the NASA 3m Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) on Mauna Kea, Hawaii, served as our primary near-infrared spectrograph in the northern hemisphere. The UT dates of observation were 2014 November 11 and 2015 January 27, May 08-09, June 27, July 03-05, and July 20. The Folded-port Infrared Echellette (FIRE) at the 6.5m Walter Baade Telescope at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile, served as our primary near-infrared spectrograph in the southern hemisphere. The UT dates of observation were 2014 August 07-09, 2015 February 08, and 2015 May 31. Several sources were also observed with the Near-Infrared Spectrometer (NIRSPEC) at the 10m W. M. Keck Observatory on Mauna Kea, Hawaii. The observation dates were UT 2014 April 12 and December 03, and 2015 July 03 and July 11. (9 data files).

  1. Climate impacts on environmental risks evaluated from space: a contribution to social benefits within the GEOSS Health Area: The case of Rift Valley Fever in Senegal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tourre, Y. M.

    2009-12-01

    Climate and environment vary on many spatio-temporal scales, including climate change, with impacts on ecosystems, vector-borne diseases and public health worldwide. This study is to enable societal benefits from a conceptual approach by mapping climatic and environmental conditions from space and understanding the mechanisms within the Health Social Benefit GEOSS area. The case study is for Rift Valley Fever (RVF) epidemics in Senegal is presented. Ponds contributing to mosquitoes’ thriving, were identified from remote sensing using high-resolution SPOT-5 satellite images. Additional data on ponds’ dynamics and rainfall events (obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) were combined with hydrological in-situ data. Localization of vulnerable hosts such as parked cattle (from QuickBird satellite) are also used. Dynamic spatio-temporal distribution of Aedes vexans density (one of the main RVF vectors) is based on the total rainfall amount and ponds’ dynamics. While Zones Potentially Occupied by Mosquitoes (ZPOM) are mapped, detailed risks areas, i.e. zones where hazards and vulnerability occur, are expressed in percentages of parks where cattle is potentially exposed to mosquitoes’ bites. This new conceptual approach, using remote-sensing techniques belonging to GEOSS, simply relies upon rainfall distribution also evaluated from space. It is meant to contribute to the implementation of integrated operational early warning system within the health application communities since climatic and environmental conditions (both natural and anthropogenic) are changing rapidly.

  2. Screening regional management options for their impact on climate resilience: an approach and case study in the Venen-Vechtstreek wetlands in the Netherlands.

    PubMed

    Wardekker, J A; Wildschut, D; Stemberger, S; van der Sluijs, J P

    2016-01-01

    Freshwater systems provide various resources and services. These are often vulnerable to climate change and other pressures. Therefore, enhancing resilience to climate change is important for their long term viability. This paper explores how management options can be evaluated on their resilience implications. The approach included five steps: (1) characterizing the system, (2) characterizing the impacts of climate change and other disturbances, (3) inventorying management options, (4) assessing the impacts of these on climate resilience, and (5) follow-up analysis. For the resilience assessment, we used a set of 'resilience principles': homeostasis, omnivory, high flux, flatness, buffering, and redundancy. We applied the approach in a case study in a Dutch wetlands region. Many options in the region's management plan contribute to resilience, however, the plan underutilised several principles, particularly flatness, but also redundancy and omnivory for agriculture, and high flux for nature. Co-benefits was identified as an important additional criterion to obtain support for adaptation from local stakeholders, such as farmers. The approach provided a relatively quick and participatory way to screen options. It allowed us to consider multiple impacts and sectors, multiple dimensions of resilience, and stakeholder perspectives. The results can be used to identify gaps or pitfalls, and set priorities for follow-up analyses.

  3. DNA Barcodes and Species Distribution Models Evaluate Threats of Global Climate Changes to Genetic Diversity: A Case Study from Nanorana parkeri (Anura: Dicroglossidae)

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Wei-wei; Zhang, Bao-lin; Chen, Hong-man; Jin, Jie-qiong; Yang, Jun-xiao; Wang, Yun-yu; Jiang, Ke; Murphy, Robert W.; Zhang, Ya-ping; Che, Jing

    2014-01-01

    Anthropogenic global climate changes are one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Distribution modeling can predict the effects of climate changes and potentially their effects on genetic diversity. DNA barcoding quickly identifies patterns of genetic diversity. As a case study, we use DNA barcodes and distribution models to predict threats under climate changes in the frog Nanorana parkeri, which is endemic to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Barcoding identifies major lineages W and E. Lineage W has a single origin in a refugium and Lineage E derives from three refugia. All refugia locate in river valleys and each greatly contributes to the current level of intraspecific genetic diversity. Species distribution models suggest that global climate changes will greatly influence N. parkeri, especially in the level of genetic diversity, because two former refugia will fail to provide suitable habitat. Our pipeline provides a novel application of DNA barcoding and has important implications for the conservation of biodiversity in southern areas of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. PMID:25093586

  4. Do choosing wisely tools meet criteria for patient decision aids? A descriptive analysis of patient materials

    PubMed Central

    Légaré, France; Hébert, Jessica; Goh, Larissa; Lewis, Krystina B; Leiva Portocarrero, Maria Ester; Robitaille, Hubert; Stacey, Dawn

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Choosing Wisely is a remarkable physician-led campaign to reduce unnecessary or harmful health services. Some of the literature identifies Choosing Wisely as a shared decision-making approach. We evaluated the patient materials developed by Choosing Wisely Canada to determine whether they meet the criteria for shared decision-making tools known as patient decision aids. Design Descriptive analysis of all Choosing Wisely Canada patient materials. Data source In May 2015, we selected all Choosing Wisely Canada patient materials from its official website. Main outcomes and measures Four team members independently extracted characteristics of the English materials using the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS) modified 16-item minimum criteria for qualifying and certifying patient decision aids. The research team discussed discrepancies between data extractors and reached a consensus. Descriptive analysis was conducted. Results Of the 24 patient materials assessed, 12 were about treatments, 11 were about screening and 1 was about prevention. The median score for patient materials using IPDAS criteria was 10/16 (range: 8–11) for screening topics and 6/12 (range: 6–9) for prevention and treatment topics. Commonly missed criteria were stating the decision (21/24 did not), providing balanced information on option benefits/harms (24/24 did not), citing evidence (24/24 did not) and updating policy (24/24 did not). Out of 24 patient materials, only 2 met the 6 IPDAS criteria to qualify as patient decision aids, and neither of these 2 met the 6 certifying criteria. Conclusions Patient materials developed by Choosing Wisely Canada do not meet the IPDAS minimal qualifying or certifying criteria for patient decision aids. Modifications to the Choosing Wisely Canada patient materials would help to ensure that they qualify as patient decision aids and thus as more effective shared decision-making tools. PMID:27566638

  5. Multivariate sib-pair linkage analysis of longitudinal phenotypes by three step-wise analysis approaches

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Zheng; Li, Xia; Rao, Shaoqi; Moser, Kathy L; Zhang, Tianwen; Gong, Binsheng; Shen, Gongqing; Li, Lin; Cannata, Ruth; Zirzow, Erich; Topol, Eric J; Wang, Qing

    2003-01-01

    Background Current statistical methods for sib-pair linkage analysis of complex diseases include linear models, generalized linear models, and novel data mining techniques. The purpose of this study was to further investigate the utility and properties of a novel pattern recognition technique (step-wise discriminant analysis) using the chromosome 10 linkage data from the Framingham Heart Study and by comparing it with step-wise logistic regression and linear regression. Results The three step-wise approaches were compared in terms of statistical significance and gene localization. Step-wise discriminant linkage analysis approach performed best; next was step-wise logistic regression; and step-wise linear regression was the least efficient because it ignored the categorical nature of disease phenotypes. Nevertheless, all three methods successfully identified the previously reported chromosomal region linked to human hypertension, marker GATA64A09. We also explored the possibility of using the discriminant analysis to detect gene × gene and gene × environment interactions. There was evidence to suggest the existence of gene × environment interactions between markers GATA64A09 or GATA115E01 and hypertension treatment and gene × gene interactions between markers GATA64A09 and GATA115E01. Finally, we answered the theoretical question "Is a trichotomous phenotype more efficient than a binary?" Unlike logistic regression, discriminant sib-pair linkage analysis might have more power to detect linkage to a binary phenotype than a trichotomous one. Conclusion We confirmed our previous speculation that step-wise discriminant analysis is useful for genetic mapping of complex diseases. This analysis also supported the possibility of the pattern recognition technique for investigating gene × gene or gene × environment interactions. PMID:14975136

  6. Climate and the Timing of Imported Cases as Determinants of the Dengue Outbreak in Guangzhou, 2014: Evidence from a Mathematical Model

    PubMed Central

    Spear, Robert C.; Marshall, John M.; Yang, Zhicong; Gong, Peng

    2016-01-01

    As the world’s fastest spreading vector-borne disease, dengue was estimated to infect more than 390 million people in 2010, a 30-fold increase in the past half century. Although considered to be a non-endemic country, mainland China had 55,114 reported dengue cases from 2005 to 2014, of which 47,056 occurred in 2014. Furthermore, 94% of the indigenous cases in this time period were reported in Guangdong Province, 83% of which were in Guangzhou City. In order to determine the possible determinants of the unprecedented outbreak in 2014, a population-based deterministic model was developed to describe dengue transmission dynamics in Guangzhou. Regional sensitivity analysis (RSA) was adopted to calibrate the model and entomological surveillance data was used to validate the mosquito submodel. Different scenarios were created to investigate the roles of the timing of an imported case, climate, vertical transmission from mosquitoes to their offspring, and intervention. The results suggested that an early imported case was the most important factor in determining the 2014 outbreak characteristics. Precipitation and temperature can also change the transmission dynamics. Extraordinary high precipitation in May and August, 2014 appears to have increased vector abundance. Considering the relatively small number of cases in 2013, the effect of vertical transmission was less important. The earlier and more frequent intervention in 2014 also appeared to be effective. If the intervention in 2014 was the same as that in 2013, the outbreak size may have been over an order of magnitude higher than the observed number of new cases in 2014.The early date of the first imported and locally transmitted case was largely responsible for the outbreak in 2014, but it was influenced by intervention, climate and vertical transmission. Early detection and response to imported cases in the spring and early summer is crucial to avoid large outbreaks in the future. PMID:26863623

  7. CDKN2A exon-wise deletion status and novel somatic mutations in Indian glioma patients.

    PubMed

    Sibin, M K; Bhat, Dhananjaya I; Lavanya, Ch; Manoj, M Jeru; Aakershita, S; Chetan, G K

    2014-02-01

    Over the years, deletions of CDKN2A (p16) tumor suppressor gene has been studied using FISH and multiplex PCR, with major focus on exon 2 in various cancers, and the frequency of mutation is found to be varied in different studies. In this study, we analyzed the deletion status of all three exons of p16 and frequency of exon 2 somatic point mutations in glioma from the Indian population and its clinical implications. Multiplex PCR was carried out in order to check deletion of all 3 exons in 50 glioma samples. Nonconventional PCR-SSCP analysis and sequencing was done to identify mutations in 48 cases. Deletion of at least one of the three exons of p16 INK4A was observed in ten cases (20 %). The frequencies of exon-wise deletions were 10 % for exon 1, 4 % for exon 2, and 8 % for exon 3. Two out of 48 samples were positive for mutations in p16 exon 2. One sample had a transition of G to C on position 147 with a codon change TGG to TGC which does not contribute to the protein structure. Another sample had a transversion of A to G on the position 154 with a codon change ATG to GTG with change in amino acid methionine to valine in 52nd position. Deletion pattern was found to be varied in three exons. Frequency of p16 gene mutation was less in the Indian population (4.2 %), and this mutation does not contribute to any remarkable change in protein structure.

  8. Are coastal managers ready for climate change? A case study from estuaries along the Pacific coast of the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thorne, Karen M.; Elliott-Fisk, Deborah L.; Freeman, Chase; Bui, Thuy-Vy D.; Powelson, Katherine; Janousek, Christopher; Buffington, Kevin J.; Takekawa, John Y.

    2017-01-01

    A key challenge for coastal resource managers is to plan and implement climate change adaptation strategies inlight of uncertainties and competing management priorities. In 2014, we held six workshops across estuaries along the Pacific coast of North America with over 150 participants to evaluate resource managers' perceived level of understanding of climate change science, where they obtain information, how they use this knowledge, and their preparedness for incorporating climate change into their management decisions. We found that most resource managers understood the types of climate change impacts likely to occur in their estuaries, but often lacked the scientific information to make decisions and plan effectively. Managers stated that time, money, and staff resources were the largest obstacles in their efforts. Managers identified that they learned most of their information from peers, scientific journals, and the Internet and indicated that sea-level rise was their greatest concern. There was, however, variation in managers' levels of readiness and perceived knowledge within and among workshop locations. The workshops revealed that some regions don't have the information they need or the planning capacity to effectively integrate climate change into their management, with eight out of fifteen site comparisons showing a significant difference between their level of preparedness (F5,26 = 6.852; p = 0.0003), and their willingness to formally plan (F5,26 = 12.84; p = 0.000002). We found that Urban estuaries were significantly different from Mixed Use and Rural estuaries, in having access to information and feeling more prepared to conduct climate change planning and implementation (F2,29 = 17.34; p = 0.00001). To facilitate climate change preparedness more comprehensive integration of science into management decisions is essential.

  9. Perception, experience, and indigenous knowledge of climate change and variability: the case of Accra, a sub-Saharan African city

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Codjoe, Samuel N.A.; Owusu, George; Burkett, Virginia

    2014-01-01

    Several recent international assessments have concluded that climate change has the potential to reverse the modest economic gains achieved in many developing countries over the past decade. The phenomenon of climate change threatens to worsen poverty or burden populations with additional hardships, especially in poor societies with weak infrastructure and economic well-being. The importance of the perceptions, experiences, and knowledge of indigenous peoples has gained prominence in discussions of climate change and adaptation in developing countries and among international development organizations. Efforts to evaluate the role of indigenous knowledge in adaptation planning, however, have largely focused on rural people and their agricultural livelihoods. This paper presents the results of a study that examines perceptions, experiences, and indigenous knowledge relating to climate change and variability in three communities of metropolitan Accra, which is the capital of Ghana. The study design is based on a three-part conceptual framework and interview process involving risk mapping, mental models, and individual stressor cognition. Most of the residents interviewed in the three communities of urban Accra attributed climate change to the combination of deforestation and the burning of firewood and rubbish. None of the residents associated climate change with fossil fuel emissions from developed countries. Numerous potential adaptation strategies were suggested by the residents, many of which have been used effectively during past drought and flood events. Results suggest that ethnic residential clustering as well as strong community bonds in metropolitan Accra have allowed various groups and long-settled communities to engage in the sharing and transmission of knowledge of weather patterns and trends. Understanding and building upon indigenous knowledge may enhance the design, acceptance, and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies in Accra and

  10. Plasticity in functional traits in the context of climate change: a case study of the subalpine forb Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae).

    PubMed

    Anderson, Jill T; Gezon, Zachariah J

    2015-04-01

    Environmental variation often induces shifts in functional traits, yet we know little about whether plasticity will reduce extinction risks under climate change. As climate change proceeds, phenotypic plasticity could enable species with limited dispersal capacity to persist in situ, and migrating populations of other species to establish in new sites at higher elevations or latitudes. Alternatively, climate change could induce maladaptive plasticity, reducing fitness, and potentially stalling adaptation and migration. Here, we quantified plasticity in life history, foliar morphology, and ecophysiology in Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae), a perennial forb native to the Rocky Mountains. In this region, warming winters are reducing snowpack and warming springs are advancing the timing of snow melt. We hypothesized that traits that were historically advantageous in hot and dry, low-elevation locations will be favored at higher elevation sites due to climate change. To test this hypothesis, we quantified trait variation in natural populations across an elevational gradient. We then estimated plasticity and genetic variation in common gardens at two elevations. Finally, we tested whether climatic manipulations induce plasticity, with the prediction that plants exposed to early snow removal would resemble individuals from lower elevation populations. In natural populations, foliar morphology and ecophysiology varied with elevation in the predicted directions. In the common gardens, trait plasticity was generally concordant with phenotypic clines from the natural populations. Experimental snow removal advanced flowering phenology by 7 days, which is similar in magnitude to flowering time shifts over 2-3 decades of climate change. Therefore, snow manipulations in this system can be used to predict eco-evolutionary responses to global change. Snow removal also altered foliar morphology, but in unexpected ways. Extensive plasticity could buffer against immediate fitness

  11. Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

    2015-04-01

    Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in the Web-based Inquiry Science Environment (WISE), engages sixth-grade students in conducting virtual investigations using NetLogo models to foster an understanding of core mechanisms including the greenhouse effect. Students then test how the greenhouse effect is enhanced by everyday energy use. This study draws on three data sources: (1) pre- and post-unit interviews, (2) analysis of embedded assessments following virtual investigations, and (3) contrasting cases of two students (normative vs. non-normative understanding of the greenhouse effect). Results show the value of using virtual investigations for teaching the mechanisms associated with global climate change. Interviews document that students hold a wide range of ideas about the mechanisms driving global climate change. Investigations with models help students use evidence-based reasoning to distinguish their ideas. Results show that understanding the greenhouse effect offers a foundation for building connections between everyday energy use and increases in global temperature. An impediment to establishing coherent understanding was the persistence of an alternative conception about ozone as an explanation for climate change. These findings illustrate the need for regular revision of curriculum based on classroom trials. We discuss key design features of models and instructional revisions that can transform the teaching and learning of global climate change.

  12. Sifting planetary mass objects at the limits of the WISE survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pinfield, David James; Leggett, Sandy; Gromadzki, Mariusz

    2015-08-01

    Large scale infrared imaging surveys have facilitated the discovery of sub-stellar objects in the field and as wide companions, with mass down to a few Jupiters and Teff as low as ~250K. This population may have diverse origins with formation in both circumstellar and interstellar environments, with much work still needed to properly understand the "brown dwarf-exoplanet connection". The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) is currently providing the greatest sensitivity to free-floating planetary mass objects, and has revealed a new classification that covers "habitable zone" temperatures - the Y dwarfs. WISE scans the sky in a way that yields time-domain as well as colour/brightness/morphology information, and offers an expanded opportunity to discriminate between genuine sources and noise signatures near the survey limits, as well as scope to reveal very high proper motion objects in the solar neighbourhood. I have developed a Bayesian search methodology to identify the coolest faintest objects in WISE, from within the reservoir of faint contamination and noise signals. I define multi-parameter probability distributions using controlled sampling of the AllWISE database. The coolest sub-stellar objects are detected in the WISE W2 band, but are un-detected at W1, so my analysis prioritises sources that display source-like and noise-like properties respectively in these two bands. I will review the followup observations that allow me to confirm or reject candidate Y dwarfs, and present recent discoveries from the programme.

  13. VizieR Online Data Catalog: WISE Preliminary Data Release (Cutri+ 2011)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cutri, R. M.; et al.

    2012-01-01

    The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE; see Wright et al. 2010AJ....140.1868W) is a NASA Medium Class Explorer mission that conducted a digital imaging survey of the entire sky in the 3.4, 4.6, 12 and 22um mid-infrared bandpasses (hereafter W1, W2, W3 and W4). WISE will produce and release to the world astronomical and educational communities and general public a digital Image Atlas covering the sky in the four survey bands, and a reliable Source Catalog containing accurate photometry and astrometry for over 300 million objects. The WISE Catalog and Atlas will enable a broad variety of research efforts ranging from the search for the closest stars and brown dwarfs to the most luminous galaxies in the Universe. WISE science data products will serve as an important reference data set for planning observations and interpreting data obtained with future ground and space-borne observatories, such as JWST. WISE was launched on 2009-12-14 from Vandenberg SLC2W. (1 data file).

  14. Candidate Very-Low-Mass Companions to Nearby Stars Found in the WISE Survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mennen, Anne; Dutcher, D.; Lepine, S.; Faherty, J.

    2012-01-01

    We report the identification in the Wide-Field Survey Explorer (WISE) preliminary release of 36 probable very-low-mass companions to nearby stars from the SUPERBLINK proper motion catalogue. We examined all WISE sources within one arcminute of a subset of 156,000 SUPERBLINK stars with proper motions between 0.040 and 0.015 seconds of arc per year, photometric distances within 100 parsecs, and positions at least seven degrees from the galactic plane. Using proper motions calculated by comparing the WISE positions of the sources to those of their counterparts in the 2MASS Catalogue, we identified all WISE sources sharing a common proper motion with the SUPERBLINK star. We eliminated all sources detected in the Palomar Sky Survey blue plates, keeping only those red enough to be low-mass or brown dwarf companions. We used WISE and 2MASS colors to select only objects consistent with being M, L, or T dwarfs, leaving only 36 likely companions. Based on their color and assumed distances, we estimate the 36 low-mass companions to be either late M or early L dwarfs. Follow-up spectroscopic observations will be required for confirmation and formal spectral classification of the companions. We acknowledge the American Museum of Natural History and the National Science Foundation for their support.

  15. Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions: A case study at 6000 years B.P.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kutzbach, J.-E.; Bartlein, P.J.; Foley, J.A.; Harrison, S.P.; Hosteller, S.W.; Liu, Z.; Prentice, I.C.; Webb, T.

    1996-01-01

    Previous climate model simulations have shown that the configuration of the Earth's orbit during the early to mid-Holocene (approximately 10-5 kyr) can account for the generally warmer-than-present conditions experienced by the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. New simulations for 6 kyr with two atmospheric/mixed-layer ocean models (Community Climate Model, version 1, CCM1, and Global ENvironmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems, version 2, GENESIS 2) are presented here and compared with results from two previous simulations with GENESIS 1 that were obtained with and without the albedo feedback due to climate-induced poleward expansion of the boreal forest. The climate model results are summarized in the form of potential vegetation maps obtained with the global BIOME model, which facilitates visual comparisons both among models and with pollen and plant macrofossil data recording shifts of the forest-tundra boundary. A preliminary synthesis shows that the forest limit was shifted 100-200 km north in most sectors. Both CCM1 and GENESIS 2 produced a shift of this magnitude. GENESIS 1 however produced too small a shift, except when the boreal forest albedo feedback was included. The feedback in this case was estimated to have amplified forest expansion by approximately 50%. The forest limit changes also show meridional patterns (greatest expansion in central Siberia and little or none in Alaska and Labrador) which have yet to be reproduced by models. Further progress in understanding of the processes involved in the response of climate and vegetation to orbital forcing will require both the deployment of coupled atmosphere-biosphere-ocean models and the development of more comprehensive observational data sets.

  16. Land use and management change under climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies: a U.S. case study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mu, Jianhong E.; Wein, Anne; McCarl, Bruce

    2015-01-01

    We examine the effects of crop management adaptation and climate mitigation strategies on land use and land management, plus on related environmental and economic outcomes. We find that crop management adaptation (e.g. crop mix, new species) increases Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 1.7 % under a more severe climate projection while a carbon price reduces total forest and agriculture GHG annual flux by 15 % and 9 %, respectively. This shows that trade-offs are likely between mitigation and adaptation. Climate change coupled with crop management adaptation has small and mostly negative effects on welfare; mitigation, which is implemented as a carbon price starting at $15 per metric ton carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent with a 5 % annual increase rate, bolsters welfare carbon payments. When both crop management adaptation and carbon price are implemented the effects of the latter dominates.

  17. Farmers' Options to Address Water Scarcity in a Changing Climate: Case Studies from two Basins in Mediterranean Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roco, Lisandro; Poblete, David; Meza, Francisco; Kerrigan, George

    2016-12-01

    Irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean areas faces tremendous challenges because of its exposure to hydroclimatic variability, increasing competition for water from different sectors, and the possibility of a climatic change. In this context, efficient management of water resources emerges as a critical issue. This requires the adoption of technological innovations, investment in infrastructure, adequate institutional arrangements, and informed decision makers. To understand farmers' perceptions and their implementation of climate change adaptation strategies with regards to water management, primary information was captured in the Limarí and Maule river basins in Chile. Farmers identified stressors for agriculture; climate change, droughts, and lack of water appeared as the most relevant stressors compared to others productive, economic, and institutional factors; revealing a rising relevance of climate related factors. While most producers perceived climate changes in recent years (92.9 %), a significant proportion (61.1 %) claim to have experienced drought, whereas only a fraction (31.9 %) have implemented a strategy to deal with this situation. Identified actions were classified in four groups: investments for water accumulation, modernization of irrigation systems, rationalization of water use, and partnership activities. Using a multinomial logit model these strategies were related to socioeconomic and productive characteristics. Results show that gender and farm size are relevant for investments, implementation and improvement of irrigation systems. For all the strategies described, access to weather information was a relevant element. The study provides empirical evidence of a recent increase in the importance assigned to climate factors by producers and adaptation options that can be supported by agricultural policy.

  18. Farmers' Options to Address Water Scarcity in a Changing Climate: Case Studies from two Basins in Mediterranean Chile.

    PubMed

    Roco, Lisandro; Poblete, David; Meza, Francisco; Kerrigan, George

    2016-12-01

    Irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean areas faces tremendous challenges because of its exposure to hydroclimatic variability, increasing competition for water from different sectors, and the possibility of a climatic change. In this context, efficient management of water resources emerges as a critical issue. This requires the adoption of technological innovations, investment in infrastructure, adequate institutional arrangements, and informed decision makers. To understand farmers' perceptions and their implementation of climate change adaptation strategies with regards to water management, primary information was captured in the Limarí and Maule river basins in Chile. Farmers identified stressors for agriculture; climate change, droughts, and lack of water appeared as the most relevant stressors compared to others productive, economic, and institutional factors; revealing a rising relevance of climate related factors. While most producers perceived climate changes in recent years (92.9 %), a significant proportion (61.1 %) claim to have experienced drought, whereas only a fraction (31.9 %) have implemented a strategy to deal with this situation. Identified actions were classified in four groups: investments for water accumulation, modernization of irrigation systems, rationalization of water use, and partnership activities. Using a multinomial logit model these strategies were related to socioeconomic and productive characteristics. Results show that gender and farm size are relevant for investments, implementation and improvement of irrigation systems. For all the strategies described, access to weather information was a relevant element. The study provides empirical evidence of a recent increase in the importance assigned to climate factors by producers and adaptation options that can be supported by agricultural policy.

  19. Climate Change Adaptation in the Western U.S.: the Case for Dynamic Rule Curves in Water Resources Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, S.; Hamlet, A. F.; Burges, S. J.

    2008-12-01

    Climate change in the Western U.S. will bring systematic hydrologic changes affecting many water resources systems. Successful adaptation to these changes, which will be ongoing through the 21st century, will require the 'rebalancing' of competing system objectives such as water supply, flood control, hydropower production, and environmental services in response to hydrologic (and other) changes. Although fixed operating policies for the operation of reservoirs has been a traditional approach to water management in the 20th century, the rapid pace of projected climate shifts (~0.5 F per decade), and the prohibitive costs of recursive policy intervention to mitigate impacts, suggest that more sophisticated approaches will be needed to cope with climate change on a long term basis. The use of 'dynamic rule curves' is an approach that maintains some of the key characteristics of current water management practice (reservoir rule curves) while avoiding many of the fundamental drawbacks of traditional water resources management strategies in a non-stationary climate. In this approach, water resources systems are optimized for each operational period using ensemble streamflow and/or water demand forecasts. The ensemble of optimized reservoir storage traces are then analyzed to produce a set of unique reservoir rule curves for each operational period reflecting the current state of the system. The potential advantage of this approach is that hydrologic changes associated with climate change (such as systematically warmer temperatures) can be captured explicitly in operational hydrologic forecasts, which would in turn inform the optimized reservoir management solutions, creating water resources systems that are largely 'self tending' as the climate system evolves. Furthermore, as hydrologic forecasting systems improve (e.g. in response to improved ENSO forecasting or other scientific advances), so does the performance of reservoir operations. An example of the approach is

  20. Refining climate change projections for organisms with low dispersal abilities: a case study of the Caspian whip snake.

    PubMed

    Sahlean, Tiberiu C; Gherghel, Iulian; Papeş, Monica; Strugariu, Alexandru; Zamfirescu, Ştefan R

    2014-01-01

    Climate warming is one of the most important threats to biodiversity. Ectothermic organisms such as amphibians and reptiles are especially vulnerable as climatic conditions affect them directly. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are increasingly popular in ecological studies, but several drawbacks exist, including the limited ability to account for the dispersal potential of the species. In this study, we use ENMs to explore the impact of global climate change on the Caspian whip snake (Dolichophis caspius) as model for organisms with low dispersal abilities and to quantify dispersal to novel areas using GIS techniques. Models generated using Maxent 3.3.3 k and GARP for current distribution were projected on future climatic scenarios. A cost-distance analysis was run in ArcGIS 10 using geomorphological features, ecological conditions, and human footprint as "costs" to dispersal of the species to obtain a Maximum Dispersal Range (MDR) estimate. All models developed were statistically significant (P<0.05) and recovered the currently known distribution of D. caspius. Models projected on future climatic conditions using Maxent predicted a doubling of suitable climatic area, while GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. Both models agreed on an expansion of suitable area northwards, with minor decreases at the southern distribution limit. The MDR area calculated using the Maxent model represented a third of the total area of the projected model. The MDR based on GARP models recovered only about 20% of the total area of the projected model. Thus, incorporating measures of species' dispersal abilities greatly reduced estimated area of potential future distributions.

  1. Multi crop model climate risk country-level management design: case study on the Tanzanian maize production system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavez, E.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate projections indicate that a very serious consequence of post-industrial anthropogenic global warming is the likelihood of the greater frequency and intensity of extreme hydrometeorological events such as heat waves, droughts, storms, and floods. The design of national and international policies targeted at building more resilient and environmentally sustainable food systems needs to rely on access to robust and reliable data which is largely absent. In this context, the improvement of the modelling of current and future agricultural production losses using the unifying language of risk is paramount. In this study, we use a methodology that allows the integration of the current understanding of the various interacting systems of climate, agro-environment, crops, and the economy to determine short to long-term risk estimates of crop production loss, in different environmental, climate, and adaptation scenarios. This methodology is applied to Tanzania to assess optimum risk reduction and maize production increase paths in different climate scenarios. The simulations carried out use inputs from three different crop models (DSSAT, APSIM, WRSI) run in different technological scenarios and thus allowing to estimate crop model-driven risk exposure estimation bias. The results obtained also allow distinguishing different region-specific optimum climate risk reduction policies subject to historical as well as RCP2.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The region-specific risk profiles obtained provide a simple framework to determine cost-effective risk management policies for Tanzania and allow to optimally combine investments in risk reduction and risk transfer.

  2. Refining Climate Change Projections for Organisms with Low Dispersal Abilities: A Case Study of the Caspian Whip Snake

    PubMed Central

    Sahlean, Tiberiu C.; Gherghel, Iulian; Papeş, Monica; Strugariu, Alexandru; Zamfirescu, Ştefan R.

    2014-01-01

    Climate warming is one of the most important threats to biodiversity. Ectothermic organisms such as amphibians and reptiles are especially vulnerable as climatic conditions affect them directly. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are increasingly popular in ecological studies, but several drawbacks exist, including the limited ability to account for the dispersal potential of the species. In this study, we use ENMs to explore the impact of global climate change on the Caspian whip snake (Dolichophis caspius) as model for organisms with low dispersal abilities and to quantify dispersal to novel areas using GIS techniques. Models generated using Maxent 3.3.3 k and GARP for current distribution were projected on future climatic scenarios. A cost-distance analysis was run in ArcGIS 10 using geomorphological features, ecological conditions, and human footprint as “costs” to dispersal of the species to obtain a Maximum Dispersal Range (MDR) estimate. All models developed were statistically significant (P<0.05) and recovered the currently known distribution of D. caspius. Models projected on future climatic conditions using Maxent predicted a doubling of suitable climatic area, while GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. Both models agreed on an expansion of suitable area northwards, with minor decreases at the southern distribution limit. The MDR area calculated using the Maxent model represented a third of the total area of the projected model. The MDR based on GARP models recovered only about 20% of the total area of the projected model. Thus, incorporating measures of species’ dispersal abilities greatly reduced estimated area of potential future distributions. PMID:24670422

  3. Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change hazards at the regional scale: the case study of the North Adriatic Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Rizzi, J.; Marcomini, A.

    2012-07-01

    Sea level rise, changes in storms and wave climate as a consequence of global climate change are expected to increase the size and magnitude of flooded and eroding coastal areas, thus having profound impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. River deltas, beaches, estuaries and lagoons are considered particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, which should be studied at the regional/local scale. This paper presents a regional vulnerability assessment (RVA) methodology developed to analyse site-specific spatial information on coastal vulnerability to the envisaged effects of global climate change, and assist coastal communities in operational coastal management and conservation. The main aim of the RVA is to identify key vulnerable receptors (i.e. natural and human ecosystems) in the considered region and localize vulnerable hot spot areas, which could be considered as homogeneous geographic sites for the definition of adaptation strategies. The application of the RVA methodology is based on a heterogeneous subset of bio-geophysical and socio-economic vulnerability indicators (e.g. coastal topography, geomorphology, presence and distribution of vegetation cover, location of artificial protection), which are a measure of the potential harm from a range of climate-related impacts (e.g. sea level rise inundation, storm surge flooding, coastal erosion). Based on a system of numerical weights and scores, the RVA provides relative vulnerability maps that allow to prioritize more vulnerable areas and targets of different climate-related impacts in the examined region and to support the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities, providing a basis for coastal zoning and land use planning. The implementation, performance and results of the methodology for the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) are fully described in the paper.

  4. Erosion under extreme climatic events in tropical climates : the case of the storm Helena (1963) in the Guadeloupe island (Lesser Antilles Arc)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allemand, P.; Lajeunesse, E.; Devauchelle, O.; Delacourt, C.

    2012-04-01

    he volume of sediment exported from a tropical watershed is dramatically increased during extreme climatic events, such as storms and tropical cyclones (Dadson et al. 2004; Hilton et al. 2008). Indeed, the exceptionally high rainfall rates reached during these events generate runoff and trigger landslides which accumulate a significant amount of sediments in flooded rivers (Gabet et al., 2004; Lin et al., 2008). We estimate the volume of sediments mobilized by the storm Helena (26 to 28 October 1963) on Basse-Terre Island in the archipelago of Guadeloupe. This is achieved using images acquired by IGN (Institut Géographique National) a few weeks after the storm which produced numerous landslides. All the available images from this campaign have been pseudo-orthorectified and included in a GIS with a Digital Elevation Model with a resolution of 10 m. Two hundred fifty three landslides have been identified and mapped. Most of them are located in the center of the island, where the highest slopes are. The cumulated surface of the landslides is 0.5 km2. Field observations on Basse-Terre show that landslides mobilized the whole regolith layer, which is about 1m thick. Assuming an average landslide thickness of 1m, we find that the total volume of sediment mobilized by the storm Helena is 0.5 km3. The associated denudation averaged over all watersheds affected by landslides is 1.4 mm with a maximum of 5 mm for the watersheds of Vieux-Habitants and Capesterre. The impact of the storm Helena is then discussed with respect to 1) the erosion induced on the Capesterre catchment by the highest flood available in a two years survey record (less than 0.1 mm/y); 2) the long term denudation rate of the major watersheds of Basse-Terre estimated by reconstructing the initial volcanic topography (between 0.1 and 0.4 mm/y).

  5. The case of the global jitters - Even in seemingly stable times, climate can take an abrupt turn

    SciTech Connect

    Monastersky, R.

    1996-03-02

    Research in different parts of the world has recently revealed signs that climate has behaved erratically during the last few millennia. Conditions in various regions have shifted abruptly and repeatedly, perhaps even at the time of the collapse of the Akkadian civilization in 2200 B.C. This article discusses recent work of various scientists, who are trying to forecast future conditions, to understand what is causing these shifts and whether this rhythum has played a role in recent global warming. A side bar discusses signs of a solar link to climatic change.

  6. Land surface anomaly simulations and predictions with a climate model: an El Niño Southern Oscillation case study.

    PubMed

    Putt, Debbie; Haines, Keith; Gurney, Robert; Liu, Chunlei

    2009-03-13

    The ability of climate models to reproduce and predict land surface anomalies is an important but little-studied topic. In this study, an atmosphere and ocean assimilation scheme is used to determine whether HadCM3 can reproduce and predict snow water equivalent and soil moisture during the 1997-1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation event. Soil moisture is reproduced more successfully, though both snow and soil moisture show some predictability at 1- and 4-month lead times. This result suggests that land surface anomalies may be reasonably well initialized for climate model predictions and hydrological applications using atmospheric assimilation methods over a period of time.

  7. Analysis of laminated beams with a layer-wise constant shear theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davalos, Julio F.; Kim, Youngchan; Barbero, Ever J.

    Based on generalized laminate plate theory, the formulation of a one-dimensional beam finite element with layer-wise constant shear (BLCS) is presented. The linear layer-wise representation of in-plane displacements permit accurate computation of normal stresses and transverse shear stresses on each layer for laminated beams with dissimilar ply stiffnesses. The BLCS formulation is equivalent to a first-order shear deformation beam theory (Timoshenko beam theory) on each layer. For the accurate computation of interlaminar shear stresses, the layer-wise constant shear stresses obtained from constitutive relations are transformed into parabolic shear stress distributions in a post-processing operation described in detail. The accuracy of the BLCS element is demonstrated by solving several numerical examples reported in the literature. While retaining the simplicity of a laminated beam theory, the element predicts results as accurate as much more complex elasticity analyses, and it is suitable to model frame-type structures.

  8. Towards a Full-sky, High-resolution Dust Extinction Map with WISE and Planck

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meisner, Aaron M.; Finkbeiner, D. P.

    2014-01-01

    We have recently completed a custom processing of the entire WISE 12 micron All-sky imaging data set. The result is a full-sky map of diffuse, mid-infrared Galactic dust emission with angular resolution of 15 arcseconds, and with contaminating artifacts such as compact sources removed. At the same time, the 2013 Planck HFI maps represent a complementary data set in the far-infrared, with zero-point relatively immune to zodiacal contamination and angular resolution superior to previous full-sky data sets at similar frequencies. Taken together, these WISE and Planck data products present an opportunity to improve upon the SFD (1998) dust extinction map, by virtue of enhanced angular resolution and potentially better-controlled systematics on large scales. We describe our continuing efforts to construct and test high-resolution dust extinction and temperature maps based on our custom WISE processing and Planck HFI data.

  9. Verification of the Bjorken-Xu inequality for Baryonic Isgur-Wise functions

    SciTech Connect

    Anikin, I.V.; Ivanov, M.A.; Lyubovitskij, V.E.

    1995-12-01

    Heavy A{sub Q} and {summation}{sub Q} baryons (Q = b, c) are considered as three-quark systems within the quark-confinement model in the limit of infinitely large heavy-quark masses (Isgur-Wise limit). Analysis of the infrared regime for the heavy-quark propagator is based on the fact (known, for example, from the effective theory of heavy quarks) that, in the Isgur-Wise limit, a heavy quark is near its mass shell. The infrapropagator of Abelian theory is used for a first approximation to the heavy-quark propagator. Baryonic Isgur-Wise functions are calculated. It is shown that the form factors of the semileptonic decay {summation}{sub b} {yields} {summation}{sub c}l{bar v}{sub l} satisfy the model-independent Bjorken-Xu inequality. 40 refs., 5 figs.

  10. Fourier analysis of cell-wise Block-Jacobi splitting in two-dimensional geometry

    SciTech Connect

    Rosa, Massimiliano; Warsa, James S; Kelley, Timothy M

    2009-01-01

    A Fourier analysis is conducted in two-dimensional (2D) geometry for the discrete-ordinates (SN) approximation of the neutron transport problem solved with Richardson iteration (Source Iteration) using the cell-wise Block-Jacobi (B1) algorithm. The results of the Fourier analysis show that convergence of cell-wise BJ can degrade, leading to a spectral radius equal to 1, in problems containing optically thin cells. For problems containing cells that are optically thick, instead, the spectral radius tends to O. Hence, in the optically thick-cell regime, cell-wise BJ is rapidly convergent even for problems that are scattering dominated, with a scattering ratio c close to I.

  11. Can Teacher Collaboration Overcome Barriers to Interdisciplinary Learning in a Disciplinary University? A Case Study Using Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pharo, E. J.; Davison, A.; Warr, K.; Nursey-Bray, M.; Beswick, K.; Wapstra, E.; Jones, C.

    2012-01-01

    A teacher network was formed at an Australian university in order to better promote interdisciplinary student learning on the complex social-environmental problem of climate change. Rather than leaving it to students to piece together disciplinary responses, eight teaching academics collaborated on the task of exposing students to different types…

  12. Climate change scenarios of surface solar radiation in data sparse regions: a case study in Malaprabha River Basin, India

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A variety of methods are available to estimate future solar radiation (SR) scenarios at spatial scales that are appropriate for local climate change impact assessment. However, there are no clear guidelines available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different app...

  13. Climate change impact on water resources for several river basins: a European, Asian and African case study.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mariotti, L.; Coppola, E.; Gao, X.; Im, E. S.; Giorgi, F.

    2009-04-01

    Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns resulting from changes in climate are expected to impact the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources (IPCC 2007). Because climate change doesn't occur uniformly throughout the globe, climate change is expected to impact each region differently. Few examples are reported where a possible change in water availability could heavily effects the life of peoples: • The Volta River in Africa is responsible for 70% of the electricity production in Ghana. • More than the 80% of the northern Italian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is connected to the Po River. • The Miyun Reservoir in China is the major water supply for Beijing and already in the last decades Beijing suffered from water storage deficiency. • The Soyang, Chungju, and Daecheong Basins in Korea provide municipal, industrial, and irrigational water to downstream users, as well as control flooding and generate hydropower. The Soyang and Chungju dams supply water to Seoul the largest metropolitan areas in Korea. These River Basins have been reconstructed using the CHYM hydrological model and by coupling CHYM with the regional climate model RegCM3 the possible impact on water resources has been quantified.

  14. Impacts of rainfall and air temperature variations due to climate change upon hydrological characteristics: a case study

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Rainfall and air temperature variations resulting from climate change are important driving forces to alter hydrologic processes in watershed ecosystems. This study investigated impacts of past and potential future rainfall and air temperature variations upon water discharge, water outflow (from th...

  15. PROVISIONING ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND CLIMATE CHANGE: A CASE STUDY USING GULF OF MEXICO BROWN SHRIMP, FARFANTEPENAEUS AZTECUS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Brown shrimp are commercially important shellfish that support one of the largest fisheries in the southeastern United States, contributing to a shrimp harvest revenue that can exceed $100 million per year. Therefore, understanding how climate-driven changes in habitat availabil...

  16. Catchment scale modelling of changes in pesticide leaching under present and future climate conditions. Demonstrated for two cases in Denmark

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Keur, P.; Henriksen, H.; Sonnenborg, T.; van Roosmalen, L.; Rosenbom, A. E.; Olesen, J. E.; Kjaer, J.; Jørgensen, L. N.; Christensen, O. B.

    2011-12-01

    A catchment scale model MACRO-MIKE SHE is applied for simulating changes in pesticide concentrations to the aquatic environment. The MACRO model is used to model the effect of changes in climate and pesticide management on pesticide leaching from the unsaturated zone and simulated percolation as well as solute flow is propagated to the MIKE SHE model. The intensity based bias correction method for converting from Regional Climate Modelling data to hydrological input data is the most appropriate method as it best reflects changes in rainfall intensity, and thus also in intensity for MACRO simulated percolation and solute flow. Results show that increased percolation simulated by the MACRO model and propagated to the MIKE SHE model nearly all ends up in increased drainage to the river. Further, pesticide solute entering the saturated zone (SZ) is mainly leaving SZ via drainage (85-94%), base flow (3.8-11.3%) and overland flow (0-3.1 %). Mean concentrations in groundwater (SZ) increase by 30-99% for one type of herbicide under future climatic conditions, whereas mean concentrations decrease for two other types by app. 93 and 91 % respectively. Future climatic conditions lead to higher concentrations in surface water for the first type of herbicides, but to decreased concentrations for the another type of herbicide and insecticide. It is overall concluded that an integrated catchment scale modeling approach is essential for pesticide fate simulation taking account of all possible hydrologic pathways.

  17. Climate change and drought effects on rural income distribution in the Mediterranean: a case study for Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quiroga, S.; Suárez, C.

    2015-07-01

    This paper examines the effects of climate change and drought on agricultural outputs in Spanish rural areas. By now the effects of drought as a response to climate change or policy restrictions have been analyzed through response functions considering direct effects on crop productivity and incomes. These changes also affect incomes distribution in the region and therefore modify the social structure. Here we consider this complementary indirect effect on social distribution of incomes which is essential in the long term. We estimate crop production functions for a range of Mediterranean crops in Spain and we use a decomposition of inequalities measure to estimate the impact of climate change and drought on yield disparities. This social aspect is important for climate change policies since it can be determinant for the public acceptance of certain adaptation measures in a context of drought. We provide the empirical estimations for the marginal effects of the two considered impacts: farms' income average and social income distribution. In our estimates we consider crop productivity response to both bio-physical and socio-economic aspects to analyze long term implications on both competitiveness and social disparities. We find disparities in the adaptation priorities depending on the crop and the region analyzed.

  18. Effects of Climate Change on Indigenous Livelihoods: The Case of Recurrent Droughts among Nomadic Pastoralist of Southeastern Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, M. N.; Desanker, P. V.

    2006-12-01

    Drought is the most injurious impact of climate change that decimates lives and hinders socioeconomic development in most rangelands of Kenya. Several scientific evidences indicate that global climate change will increase frequency and intensity of droughts. This will have important ramification for ecosystems and social systems in the rangelands of southeastern Kenya, and correctly so. These rangelands are fragile and degraded; and the inhabitants are mostly poverty-stricken. Nomadic pastoralism is the chief source of livelihood in this region; it relies on local natural pastures. Besides, pressures from land use change constitute an additional exposure, of nomadic pastoralism, to vulnerabilities of this climatic hazard. This region is highly prone to droughts; it is currently recovering from a devastating drought that started in early 2005 and terminated at the start this year. Most important, and like most societies in sub-Saharan Africa, inadequate adaptive capacity among nomadic pastoralists of Kenya, exacerbates deleterious impacts of drought. The livelihood of these pastoralists, therefore, stands to be destabilized. This study presents findings from an on-going research in Kajiado District of southeastern Kenya. Impacts of and adaptation strategies to recurrent and prolonged droughts among the nomadic Maasai pastoralist are presented. The study concludes with possible future scenarios of this form of pastoralism from which climate change actors can draw from.

  19. Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

    PubMed

    Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

    2016-01-01

    The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

  20. A School-University Research Partnership to Identify Disengaged Students: A Descriptive Case Analysis of School Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Biag, Manuelito D.; Sanchez, Monika A.

    2016-01-01

    Background/Context: Much of the literature on school-university research partnerships has focused on collaborations that address curriculum, instruction, and leadership. Less scholarly attention has been paid to how practitioners and academics work together to improve school climate. Purpose: We seek to deepen understanding of how educators and…

  1. Projections of water stress based on an ensemble of socioeconomic growth and climate change scenarios: A case study in Asia

    SciTech Connect

    Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John; Ebi, Kristie L.

    2016-03-30

    The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Lastly, tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

  2. University of Colorado at Boulder: Energy and Climate Revolving Fund. Green Revolving Funds in Action: Case Study Series

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caine, Rebecca

    2012-01-01

    The University of Colorado at Boulder's student run Environmental Center leads the campus' sustainability efforts. The Center created the Energy and Climate Revolving Fund (ECRF) in 2007 to finance energy-efficiency upgrades. The ECRF functions as a source of funding for project loans and provides a method of financing projects that seeks to save…

  3. Stormwater Management for TMDLs in an Arid Climate: A Case Study Application of SUSTAIN in Albuquerque, New Mexico

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Office of Research and Development and U.S. EPA Region 6 conducted a study that evaluated the use of best management practices (BMPs) for stormwater management in an arid climate. The System for Urban Stormwater Treatment and An...

  4. New Whole-House Solutions Case Study: Compact Buried Ducts in a Hot-Humid Climate House

    SciTech Connect

    2016-02-18

    With U.S. Department of Energy Building America Program support, Home Innovation Research Labs partnered with K. Hovnanian Homes to demonstrate a new buried-duct design that is durable, energy efficient, and cost-effective in a hot-humid climate.

  5. Does Climate Literacy Matter? A Case Study of U.S. Students' Level of Concern about Anthropogenic Global Warming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bedford, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Educators seeking to address global warming in their classrooms face numerous challenges, including the question of whether student opinions about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) can change in response to increased knowledge about the climate system. This article analyzes survey responses from 458 students at a primarily undergraduate…

  6. Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia

    PubMed Central

    Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

    2016-01-01

    The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers. PMID:27028871

  7. Adapting to rates versus amounts of climate change: a case of adaptation to sea-level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shayegh, Soheil; Moreno-Cruz, Juan; Caldeira, Ken

    2016-10-01

    Adaptation is the process of adjusting to climate change in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities associated with it. Most adaptation strategies are designed to adjust to a new climate state. However, despite our best efforts to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, climate is likely to continue changing far into the future. Here, we show how considering rates of change affects the projected optimal adaptation strategy. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal investment in the face of continued sea-level rise, presenting a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among physical and economic factors governing coastal development decisions such as rate of sea-level rise, land slope, discount rate, and depreciation rate. This model shows that the determination of optimal investment strategies depends on taking into account future rates of sea-level rise, as well as social and political constraints. This general approach also applies to the development of improved strategies to adapt to ongoing trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Adaptation to some amount of change instead of adaptation to ongoing rates of change may produce inaccurate estimates of damages to the social systems and their ability to respond to external pressures.

  8. Analysis of effects of climate change on runoff in an urban drainage system: a case study from Seoul, Korea.

    PubMed

    Jung, M; Kim, H; Mallari, K J B; Pak, G; Yoon, J

    2015-01-01

    Both water quantity and quality are impacted by climate change. In addition, rapid urbanization has also brought an immeasurable loss of life and property resulting from floods. Hence, there is a need to predict changes in rainfall events to effectively design stormwater infrastructure to protect urban areas from disaster. This study develops a framework for predicting future short duration rainfall intensity and examining the effects of climate change on urban runoff in the Gunja Drainage Basin. Non-stationarities in rainfall records are first analysed using trend analysis to extrapolate future climate change scenarios. The US Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was used for single event simulation of runoff quantity from the study area. For the 1-hour and 24-hour durations, statistically significant upward trends were observed. Although the 10-minute duration was only nearly significant at the 90% level, the steepest slope was observed for this short duration. Moreover, it was observed that the simulated peak discharge from SWMM increases as the short duration rainfall intensity increases. The proposed framework is thought to provide a means to review the current design of stormwater infrastructures to determine their capacity, along with consideration of climate change impact.

  9. Projections of water stress based on an ensemble of socioeconomic growth and climate change scenarios: A case study in Asia

    DOE PAGES

    Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang; ...

    2016-03-30

    The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify themore » primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Lastly, tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.« less

  10. Capability of a regional climate model to simulate climate variables requested for water balance computation: a case study over northeastern France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boulard, Damien; Castel, Thierry; Camberlin, Pierre; Sergent, Anne-Sophie; Bréda, Nathalie; Badeau, Vincent; Rossi, Aurélien; Pohl, Benjamin

    2016-05-01

    This paper documents the capability of the ARW/WRF regional climate model to regionalize near-surface atmospheric variables at high resolution (8 km) over Burgundy (northeastern France) from daily to interannual timescales. To that purpose, a 20-year continuous simulation (1989-2008) was carried out. The WRF model driven by ERA-Interim reanalyses was compared to in situ observations and a mesoscale atmospheric analyses system (SAFRAN) for five near-surface variables: precipitation, air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and solar radiation, the last four variables being used for the calculation of potential evapotranspiration (ET0). Results show a significant improvement upon ERA-Interim. This is due to a good skill of the model to reproduce the spatial distribution for all weather variables, in spite of a slight over-estimation of precipitation amounts mostly during the summer convective season, and wind speed during winter. As compared to the Météo-France observations, WRF also improves upon SAFRAN analyses, which partly fail at showing realistic spatial distributions for wind speed, relative humidity and solar radiation—the latter being strongly underestimated. The SAFRAN ET0 is thus highly under-estimated too. WRF ET0 is in better agreement with observations. In order to evaluate WRF's capability to simulate a reliable ET0, the water balance of thirty Douglas-fir stands was computed using a process-based model. Three soil water deficit indexes corresponding to the sum of the daily deviations between the relative extractible water and a critical value of 40 % below which the low soil water content affects tree growth, were calculated using the nearest weather station, SAFRAN analyses weather data, or by merging observation and WRF weather variables. Correlations between Douglas-fir growth and the three estimated soil water deficit indexes show similar results. These results showed through the ET0 estimation and the relation between mean annual SWDI

  11. Time-Resolved Coadds and Forced Photometry of the WISE and NEOWISE-Reactivation Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlegel, David

    We propose to produce full-sky, time-resolved coadds of the images collected from the NASA WISE (Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer) satellite, including the WISE, NEOWISE, and two years of the NEOWISE-Reactivation (NEOWISE-R) mission phases. Catalogs of forced photometry over the SDSS footprint will be generated at six epochs and for the full image stack. The images and catalogs will be suitable for stellar and extragalactic studies. The WISE satellite scans the sky such that each part of the sky is visited every six months, with 10 or more exposures per visit. We propose to coadd these 10 or more exposures to produce one coadd per visit that is, one coadd each six months. For most parts of the sky, there is one visit during the original WISE mission, one visit during NEOWISE, and then, after a 33-month gap, four more visits during the NEOWISE-R mission. These data, over a six-year baseline, are compelling both for studies of variability and of proper motion of nearby stars, and AGN and quasars at high redshift. Furthermore, the full image coadds will add considerable depth to the existing unWISE and AllWISE coadds at 3.4¼m and 4.6¼m, thereby playing a critical role in enabling target selection for next-generation massive redshift surveys. We will utilize our new data products to map quasar variability to the depths required for the future DESI dark energy experiment, and to discover high-proper motion objects in the solar neighborhood of the Milky Way to 1.4 magnitudes greater depth than previous searches.

  12. The AllWISE Motion Survey and the Quest for Cold Subdwarfs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirkpatrick, J. Davy; Schneider, Adam; Fajardo-Acosta, Sergio; Gelino, Christopher R.; Mace, Gregory N.; Wright, Edward L.; Logsdon, Sarah E.; McLean, Ian S.; Cushing, Michael C.; Skrutskie, Michael F.; Eisenhardt, Peter R.; Stern, Daniel; Baloković, Mislav; Burgasser, Adam J.; Faherty, Jacqueline K.; Lansbury, George B.; Rich, J. A.; Skrzypek, Nathalie; Fowler, John W.; Cutri, Roc M.; Masci, Frank J.; Conrow, Tim; Grillmair, Carl J.; McCallon, Howard L.; Beichman, Charles A.; Marsh, Kenneth A.

    2014-03-01

    The AllWISE processing pipeline has measured motions for all objects detected on Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) images taken between 2010 January and 2011 February. In this paper, we discuss new capabilities made to the software pipeline in order to make motion measurements possible, and we characterize the resulting data products for use by future researchers. Using a stringent set of selection criteria, we find 22,445 objects that have significant AllWISE motions, of which 3525 have motions that can be independently confirmed from earlier Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS) images, yet lack any published motions in SIMBAD. Another 58 sources lack 2MASS counterparts and are presented as motion candidates only. Limited spectroscopic follow-up of this list has already revealed eight new L subdwarfs. These may provide the first hints of a "subdwarf gap" at mid-L types that would indicate the break between the stellar and substellar populations at low metallicities (i.e., old ages). Another object in the motion list—WISEA J154045.67-510139.3—is a bright (J ≈ 9 mag) object of type M6; both the spectrophotometric distance and a crude preliminary parallax place it ~6 pc from the Sun. We also compare our list of motion objects to the recently published list of 762 WISE motion objects from Luhman. While these first large motion studies with WISE data have been very successful in revealing previously overlooked nearby dwarfs, both studies missed objects that the other found, demonstrating that many other nearby objects likely await discovery in the AllWISE data products.

  13. VizieR Online Data Catalog: AllWISE motion survey (Kirkpatrick+, 2014)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirkpatrick, J. D.; Schneider, A.; Fajardo-Acosta, S.; Gelino, C. R.; Mace, G. N.; Wright, E. L.; Logsdon, S. E.; McLean, I. S.; Cushing, M. C.; Skrutskie, M. F.; Eisenhardt, P. R.; Stern, D.; Balokovic, M.; Burgasser, A. J.; Faherty, J. K.; Lansbury, G. B.; Rich, J. A.; Skrzypek, N.; Fowler, J. W.; Cutri, R. M.; Masci, F. J.; Conrow, T.; Grillmair, C. J.; McCallon, H. L.; Beichman, C. A.; Marsh, K. A.

    2016-05-01

    The AllWISE processing pipeline has measured motions for all objects detected on Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) images taken between 2010 January and 2011 February. In this paper, we discuss new capabilities made to the software pipeline in order to make motion measurements possible, and we characterize the resulting data products for use by future researchers. Using a stringent set of selection criteria, we find 22445 objects that have significant AllWISE motions, of which 3525 have motions that can be independently confirmed from earlier Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS) images, yet lack any published motions in SIMBAD. Another 58 sources lack 2MASS counterparts and are presented as motion candidates only. Limited spectroscopic follow-up of this list has already revealed eight new L subdwarfs. These may provide the first hints of a "subdwarf gap" at mid-L types that would indicate the break between the stellar and substellar populations at low metallicities (i.e., old ages). Another object in the motion list --WISEA J154045.67-510139.3-- is a bright (J~9mag) object of type M6; both the spectrophotometric distance and a crude preliminary parallax place it ~6pc from the Sun. We also compare our list of motion objects to the recently published list of 762 WISE motion objects from Luhman (2014, J/ApJ/781/4). While these first large motion studies with WISE data have been very successful in revealing previously overlooked nearby dwarfs, both studies missed objects that the other found, demonstrating that many other nearby objects likely await discovery in the AllWISE data products. (4 data files).

  14. Full-depth Coadds of the WISE and First-year NEOWISE-reactivation Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meisner, Aaron M.; Lang, Dustin; Schlegel, David J.

    2017-01-01

    The Near Earth Object Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (NEOWISE) Reactivation mission released data from its first full year of observations in 2015. This data set includes ∼2.5 million exposures in each of W1 and W2, effectively doubling the amount of WISE imaging available at 3.4 μm and 4.6 μm relative to the AllWISE release. We have created the first ever full-sky set of coadds combining all publicly available W1 and W2 exposures from both the AllWISE and NEOWISE-Reactivation (NEOWISER) mission phases. We employ an adaptation of the unWISE image coaddition framework, which preserves the native WISE angular resolution and is optimized for forced photometry. By incorporating two additional scans of the entire sky, we not only improve the W1/W2 depths, but also largely eliminate time-dependent artifacts such as off-axis scattered moonlight. We anticipate that our new coadds will have a broad range of applications, including target selection for upcoming spectroscopic cosmology surveys, identification of distant/massive galaxy clusters, and discovery of high-redshift quasars. In particular, our full-depth AllWISE+NEOWISER coadds will be an important input for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument selection of luminous red galaxy and quasar targets. Our full-depth W1/W2 coadds are already in use within the DECam Legacy Survey (DECaLS) and Mayall z-band Legacy Survey (MzLS) reduction pipelines. Much more work still remains in order to fully leverage NEOWISER imaging for astrophysical applications beyond the solar system.

  15. The Climate Change Collection: A Case Study on Digital Library Collection Review and the Integration of Research, Education and Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCaffrey, M.

    2005-05-01

    Designed as an pilot project to assess the scientific and pedagogical quality of selected digital resources in the Digital Library for Earth System Education (DLESE), the Climate Change Collection is thematic collection of digital resources relating to the topic of global climate change. Developed through the collaborative efforts of an interdisciplinary review team made up of professionals from the fields of climate research, geoscience education, cognitive psychology, and evaluation, the findings of the project suggest that the user needs of the reviewers should be considered in any review process, that there is inherent value in the collaboration of scientists, teachers and related fields in determining the quality of particular resources, and that the process of preparing for and conducting such reviews and annotations is time-consuming and challenging. Drawing from the experience of prior collection development efforts associated with DLESE, including the Community Review System and the Digital Water Education Library, the Climate Change Collection was developed during the Fall of 2004 and Winter of 2005. Through a series of monthly meetings with the review team facilitated by the Principal Investigator acting as Editor for the collection, and assisted by an online workspace known as a SWIKI, the Climate Change Collection was designed as an experiment in streamlined collection development that may help inform future digital library review and collection-building efforts. The initial meetings focused on training the reviewers, setting context for the review process, and discussing the perspectives of the various participants in the review team. Each participant received a stipend for their involvement in the process. A rubric "scorecard" was developed, tested, and fine-tuned by the review team with a focus primarily on scientific accuracy and the potential for effective use in the classroom. Specific concepts relating to aspects of natural climate variability

  16. Climate change and forest disturbance effect on runoff response in montane basin. Case study - Vydra basin, Sumava Mountains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Langhammer, Jakub; Su, Ye; Kaiglová, Jana

    2014-05-01

    Climate change, along with the changes in land use, is one of the key factors driving the changes in hydrological regimes and runoff response in basins. In montane regions, the long-term, as well as abrupt changes may result in significant shifts in runoff regime, especially in relation to extreme runoff events. This study aims to discuss the effect of two key driving forces - climate change and extensive forest disturbance in montane mid-latitude environment. The study area of the Vydra basin is located in the headwater regions of the Sumava Mountains at the border between the Czech Republic and Germany, Central Europe. The study area has undergone an Increase in yearly temperature and extensive forest disturbance resulting from windstorms, consequent bark beetle outbreak and clear-cutting for forest management simultaneously. Various data sources were used for the analyses in this study. The global climate model CM2 was used for reanalysis of historical time series of temperatures since 1871. Selected climate change scenarios of the same model were used for identifying the prospective changes in trends and seasonality of climate parameters. Statistical techniques based on measured data from both spatial and temporal resolutions in the study area were used to detect the co-relationship between hydrologic and meteorological variables for testing the homogeneity of data and identifying the points of change. Furthermore, the daily discharge and precipitation monitored by CHMI at the outlet of the basin were used to analyze various aspects of runoff change. There was an assessed rainfall-runoff relation, runoff variability, changes in seasonal runoff distribution and changes in frequency and seasonality of peak flows. The identified extent and timing of changes are notable and they can be attributed to the cumulative effects of two key driving forces: climate change and forest disturbance, both affecting runoff in the study area. The impact of the two drivers on

  17. Heavy Rainfalls in a Desert(ed) City - a climate-archaeological case study from Naga, Sudan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berking, J.

    2013-12-01

    In the semi-arid region along the fringe of the north-eastern Sahel and the south-eastern Sahara desert, the remains of a city, called Naga, are located. The ruins of this Meroitic city are situated about 150 km north of the Sudanese capital Khartoum and 40 km south of the Nile river. During its heydays the city has been a highly developed central place, with a high population and an economic culmination from about 300 BCE to 300 CE. Archaeological excavations at Naga take place since several decades and were since 2008 supported by geoscientific investigations. The present day climate of the region is governed by the seasonal northward shift of the ITCZ low pressure zone leading to approximately 100mm precipitation p.a. which leads subsequently to ephemeral discharge events in the main wadi. This means that at least today no rain-fed agriculture is possible and water is a very scarce resource, since the groundwater table is >70m below surface. One goal of the project was herein to answer the questions: How was the water supply of this city organised? Was there a higher water availability in ancient times due to a different climatic setting in the region - or were the inhabitants able to compensated the water deficit by using sophisticated water harvesting and storage techniques? To answer these questions hydrological and climatological methods, coupled with geophysical- and high precision terrain data, were applied. The results were coupled with data from a down-scaled global climate model. The analysis of sedimentary records and the setup of a chronostratigraphy revealed new insights into the environmental-evolution since late-Holocene. This chronology enables for a contextualization of the archaeological targets with the climate deterioration since Mid-Holocene Optimum. We show, that the abandonment of Naga coincides with the gradual decline of effective precipitation and hence a more and more unreliable water availability, indicated by the coupled hydro-climatic

  18. Could be the future climate change an opportunity for the winegrowers? The case study of Aglianico wine in southern Italy.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonfante, Antonello; Basile, Angelo; Dragonetti, Giovanna; De Lorenzi, Francesca; De Mascellis, Roberto; Gambuti, Angelita; Giorio, Pasquale; Guida, Giampiero; Manna, Piero; Minieri, Luciana; Oliva, Marco; Orefice, Nadia; Terribile, Fabio

    2015-04-01

    Water deficit is a limiting factor to yield production and crop adaptation to future climate conditions. This is true for crops addressed mainly for biomass production (e.g. maize, wheat, etc.) but not for those where the quality is relevant. Specifically, in grapevine water stress (mid or limited) - occurring during specific phenological phases - is a factor to produce good quality wines. It induces for example the production of anthocyanins and aroma precursors. Therefore, the water stress, due to the future increase of temperature and the rainfall decrease, could represent an opportunity to increase winegrowers' incomes. The study was carried out in Campania region (Southern Italy), in an area vocated to high quality wines production (ZOVISA project: Viticultural zoning at farm scale) The study was realized in two different soils (calcisol and cambisol), under the same climate, on Aglianico cultivar, standard clone population on 1103 Paulsen rootstocks placed along a slope of 90 m length with 11% of gradient. The agro-hydrological model SWAP was calibrated and applied to estimate soil-plant water status at the various crop phenological phases for three vintages (2011-2013). Crop water stress index (CWSI) - estimated by the model - was related to physiological measurements (e.g leaf water potential), grape bunches measurements (e.g. sugar content) and wine quality (e.g. tannins). For both soils, the correlation between measurements and CWSI were high (e.g. -0.97** with sugar; 0.895* with anthocyanins in the skins). Then, the model was applied to future climate condition (2021-2051) obtained from statistical downscaling of GCM in order to estimate the effect of the climate on CWSI and hence on vine quality. The results show that the effects of the climate change on the vine quality is dependent by the soil, being relevant to the cambisol and less pronounced to the calcisol, with an expected improvement of wine quality in the cambisol.

  19. Detection and attribution of climate change at regional scale: case study of Karkheh river basin in the west of Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zohrabi, Narges; Goodarzi, Elahe; Massah Bavani, Alireza; Najafi, Husain

    2016-09-01

    This research aims at providing a statistical framework for detection and attribution of climate variability and change at regional scale when at least 30 years of observation data are available. While extensive research has been done on detecting significant observed trends in hydroclimate variables and attribution to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in large continents, less attention has been paid for regional scale analysis. The latter is mainly important for adaptation to climate change in different sectors including but not limited to energy, agriculture, and water resources planning and management, and it is still an open discussion in many countries including the West Asian ones. In the absence of regional climate models, an informative framework is suggested providing useful insights for policymakers. It benefits from general flexibility, not being computationally expensive, and applying several trend tests to analyze temporal variations in temperature and precipitation (gradual and step changes). The framework is implemented for a very important river basin in the west of Iran. In general, some increasing and decreasing trends of the interannual precipitation and temperature have been detected. For precipitation annual time series, a reducing step was seen around 1996 compared with the gradual change in most of the stations, which have not experience a dramatical change. The range of natural forcing is found to be ±76 % for precipitation and ±1.4 °C for temperature considering a two-dimensional diagram of precipitation and temperature anomalies from 1000-year control run of global climate model (GCM). Findings out of applying the proposed framework may provide useful insights into how to approach structural and non-structural climate change adaptation strategies from central governments.

  20. Building America Case Study: Compact Buried Ducts in a Hot-Humid Climate House, Lady's Island, South Carolina

    SciTech Connect

    2016-02-01

    A system of compact, buried ducts provides a high-performance and cost-effective solution for delivering conditioned air throughout the building. This report outlines research activities that are expected to facilitate adoption of compact buried duct systems by builders. The results of this research would be scalable to many new house designs in most climates and markets, leading to wider industry acceptance and building code and energy program approval. The primary research question with buried ducts is potential condensation at the outer jacket of the duct insulation in humid climates during the cooling season. Current best practices for buried ducts rely on encapsulating the insulated ducts with closed-cell spray polyurethane foam insulation to control condensation and improve air sealing. The encapsulated buried duct concept has been analyzed and shown to be effective in hot-humid climates. The purpose of this project is to develop an alternative buried duct system that performs effectively as ducts in conditioned space - durable, energy efficient, and cost-effective - in a hot-humid climate (IECC warm-humid climate zone 3A) with three goals that distinguish this project: 1) Evaluation of design criteria for buried ducts that use common materials and do not rely on encapsulation using spray foam or disrupt traditional work sequences, 2) Establishing design criteria for compact ducts and incorporate those with the buried duct criteria to further reduce energy losses and control installed costs, and 3) Developing HVAC design guidance for performing accurate heating and cooling load calculations for compact buried ducts.

  1. Central Stars of Mid-Infrared Nebulae Discovered with Spitzer and WISE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gvaramadze, V. V.; Kniazev, A. Y.

    2017-02-01

    Searches for compact mid-IR nebulae with the Spitzer Space Telescope and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE), accompanied by spectroscopic observations of central stars of these nebulae led to the discovery of many dozens of massive stars at different evolutionary stages, of which the most numerous are candidate luminous blue variables (LBVs). In this paper, we give a census of candidate and confirmed Galactic LBVs revealed with Spitzer and WISE, and present some new results of spectroscopic observations of central stars of mid-IR nebulae.

  2. The First Hundred Brown Dwarfs Discovered by the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kirkpatrick, J. Davy; Cushing, Michael C.; Gelino, Christopher R.; Griffith, Roger L.; Skrutskie, Michael F.; Marsh, Kenneth A.; Wright, Edward L.; Mainzer, Amanda K.; Eisenhardt, Peter R.; McLean, Ian S.; Bauer, James M.; Benford, Dominic J.; Lake, Sean E.; Petty, Sara M.; Tsai, Chao-Wei; Beichman, Charles; Stapelfeldt, Karl R.; Stern, Daniel; Vacca, William D.

    2011-01-01

    We present ground-based spectroscopic verification of six Y dwarfs also Cushing et al.), eighty-nine T dwarfs, eight L dwarfs, and one M dwarf identified by the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). Eighty of these are cold brown dwarfs with spectral types > or =T6, six of which have been announced earlier in Mainzer et al. and I3urgasser et al. We present color-color and colortype diagrams showing the locus of M, L, T, and Y dwarfs in WISE color space. "

  3. Properties of the solar neighbor WISE J072003.20-084651.2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanov, V. D.; Vaisanen, P.; Kniazev, A. Y.; Beletsky, Y.; Mamajek, E. E.; Mužić, K.; Beamín, J. C.; Boffin, H. M. J.; Pourbaix, D.; Gandhi, P.; Gulbis, A.; Monaco, L.; Saviane, I.; Kurtev, R.; Mawet, D.; Borissova, J.; Minniti, D.

    2015-02-01

    Context. The severe crowding towards the Galactic plane suggests that the census of nearby stars in that direction may be incomplete. Recently, Scholz reported a new M9 object at an estimated distance d ≃ 7 pc (WISE J072003.20-084651.2; hereafter WISE J0720) at Galactic latitude b = 2.3°. Aims: Our goals are to determine the physical characteristics of WISE J0720, its kinematic properties, and to address the question of whether it is a binary object, as was suggested in the discovery paper. Methods: Optical and infrared spectroscopy from the Southern African Large Telescope and Magellan, respectively, and spectral energy distribution fitting were used to determine the spectral type of WISE J0720. The measured radial velocity, proper motion, and parallax yielded its Galactic velocities. We also investigated if WISE J0720 may show X-ray activity based on archival data. Results: Our spectra are consistent with spectral type L0±1. We find no evidence for binarity, apart from a minor 2σ level difference in the radial velocities taken at two different epochs. The spatial velocity of WISE J0720 does not connect it to any known moving group; instead, it places the object with high probability in the old thin disk or in the thick disk. The spectral energy distribution fit hints at excess in the 12 μm and 22 μm WISE bands which may be due to a redder companion, but the same excess is visible in other late-type objects, and it more likely implies a shortcoming of the models (e.g., problems with the effective wavelengths of the filters for these extremely cool objects, etc.) rather than a disk or redder companion. The optical spectrum shows some Hα emission, indicative of stellar activity. Archival X-ray observations yield no detection. Conclusions: WISE J0720 is a new member of the solar neighborhood, the third nearest L dwarf. Our data do not support the hypothesis of its binary nature. Based on observations made with the Southern African Large Telescope (SALT), the

  4. Isgur-Wise function in a QCD-inspired potential model with WKB approximation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hazarika, Bhaskar Jyoti; Choudhury, D. K.

    2017-03-01

    We use Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) approximation for calculating the slope and curvature of Isgur-Wise function in a QCD-inspired potential model. This work is an extension of the approximation methods to the QCD-inspired potential model. The approach hints at an effective range of distance for calculating the slope and curvature of Isgur-Wise function. Comparison is also made with those of Dalgarno method and variationally improved perturbation theory (VIPT) as well as other models to show the advantages of using WKB approximation.

  5. Distributions of debris as measured by the NASA-WISE instrument

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nystrom, Emily; Murray-Krezan, Jeremy

    2015-05-01

    From December 2009 thru 2011 the NASA Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) gathered radiometrically exquisite measurements of debris in near Earth orbits, adding substantially to the current catalog of known debris. Assuming grey-body emissivity, the apparent size of debris objects may be inferred from that data. This report describes a general model for debris size distributed near the GEO belt. Linear and nonlinear regression models were fit to data from the WISE orbital debris catalog. Using those results we estimate the sensitivity of the instrument to detection of small debris objects near the GEO belt.

  6. A Second-Order Accurate, Component-Wise TVD Scheme for Nonlinear, Hyperbolic Conservation Laws

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Heng; Liu, Yu-Ping

    2001-10-01

    In this paper, we present a two-step, component-wise TVD scheme for nonlinear, hyperbolic conservation laws, which is obtained by combining the schemes of Mac Cormack and Warming-Beam. The scheme does not necessitate the characteristic decompositions of the usual TVD schemes. It employs component-wise limiting; hence the programming is much simpler, especially for complicated coupled systems. For Euler systems of conservation laws, we found the scheme is two times faster in computation than the usual TVD schemes based on field-by-field decomposition limiting. A lot of numerical results show primarily the value of the new method.

  7. Adaptive Management for Climate Change Impact for Water Sector in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Jun

    2013-04-01

    China, as a larger developing country in the world, in facing to bigger challenges than before on wisely managing water resources to support rapidly socio-economic development in 2020 and beyond. China has a vast area of 9.6 million sq. km and relatively abundant water resources with ranked sixth in the world after Brazil, the Russian Federation, Canada, the United States and Indonesia in terms of absolute amount of annual runoff. However, given its large population of over 1.3 billion, China has a very low per capita amount (about one quarter of the world average) of water resources and, is therefore one of the countries with the most severe shortage of water in the world, particular North China. North China is one of very important regions in China. For this region, population has 0.437 billion in 2000 that occupies 35% of total in China, GDP reaches 386 billion US that is also 32% of total in China. Irrigation area of North China is 42% of total in China, and agricultural product has 40% of total in China. However, it is the most water shortage area in China. For instance, water resources per capita in Hai River Basin have only 270 cubic meters, which is only 1/7 of the national average and 1/24 of the world average. Water Resource Vulnerability under impact of both climate change and human activities are rather significantly. This presentation will focus on two issues: (1) how to screening climate changes impact to water sector, and how to quantify water resource vulnerability related to impact of climate change and human activity? (2) how to take adaptation & wisely manage water to changing environment on existing water projects and new water programme & water policy in China? A screening process for climate impact to water sector in North China was proposed. A new study on quantifying water resource vulnerability, based on three practical and workable, i.e., the use to availability ratio, water crowding and per capita water use, were developed. Four case

  8. Examining uncertainties in the linkage between global climate change and potential human health impacts in the western USA -- Hexachlorobenzene (HCB) as a case study

    SciTech Connect

    McKone, T.E.; Daniels, J.I.; Goldman, M.

    1994-09-30

    Industrial societies have altered the earth`s environment in ways that could have important, long-term ecological, economic, and health implications. In this paper the authors define, characterize, and evaluate parameter and outcome uncertainties using a model that links global climate change with predictions of chemical exposure and human health risk in the western region of the US. They illustrate the impact of uncertainty about global climate change on such potential secondary outcomes using as a case study the public health consequences related to the behavior environmentally of hexachlorobenzene (HCB), an ubiquitous multimedia pollutant. They begin by constructing a matrix that reveals the linkage between global environmental change and potential regional human-health effects that might be induced directly and/or indirectly by HCB released into the air and water. This matrix is useful for translating critical uncertainties into terms that can be understood and used by policy makers to formulate strategies against potential adverse irreversible health and economic consequences. Specifically, the authors employ a combined uncertainty/sensitivity analysis to investigate how the HCB that has been released is affected by increasing atmospheric temperature and the accompanying climate alterations that are anticipated and how such uncertainty propagates to affect the expected magnitude and calculational precision of estimat