Centennial-scale Holocene climate variations amplified by Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, Pepijn; Clark, Peter U.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Schmittner, Andreas; Weber, Michael E.

2017-01-01

Proxy-based indicators of past climate change show that current global climate models systematically underestimate Holocene-epoch climate variability on centennial to multi-millennial timescales, with the mismatch increasing for longer periods. Proposed explanations for the discrepancy include ocean-atmosphere coupling that is too weak in models, insufficient energy cascades from smaller to larger spatial and temporal scales, or that global climate models do not consider slow climate feedbacks related to the carbon cycle or interactions between ice sheets and climate. Such interactions, however, are known to have strongly affected centennial- to orbital-scale climate variability during past glaciations, and are likely to be important in future climate change. Here we show that fluctuations in Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge caused by relatively small changes in subsurface ocean temperature can amplify multi-centennial climate variability regionally and globally, suggesting that a dynamic Antarctic Ice Sheet may have driven climate fluctuations during the Holocene. We analysed high-temporal-resolution records of iceberg-rafted debris derived from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and performed both high-spatial-resolution ice-sheet modelling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and multi-millennial global climate model simulations. Ice-sheet responses to decadal-scale ocean forcing appear to be less important, possibly indicating that the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will be governed more by long-term anthropogenic warming combined with multi-centennial natural variability than by annual or decadal climate oscillations.

Synchronous population dynamics in California butterflies explained by climatic forcing

PubMed Central

Shapiro, Arthur M.

2017-01-01

A long-standing challenge for population biology has been to understand why some species are characterized by populations that fluctuate in size independently, while populations of other species fluctuate synchronously across space. The effects of climatic variation and dispersal have been invoked to explain synchronous population dynamics, however an understanding of the relative influence of these drivers in natural populations is lacking. Here we compare support for dispersal- versus climate-driven models of interspecific variation in synchrony using 27 years of observations of 65 butterfly species at 10 sites spanning 2750 m of elevation in Northern California. The degree of spatial synchrony exhibited by each butterfly species was used as a response in a unique approach that allowed us to investigate whether interspecific variation in response to climate or dispersal propensity was most predictive of interspecific variation in synchrony. We report that variation in sensitivity to climate explained 50% of interspecific variation in synchrony, whereas variation in dispersal propensity explained 23%. Sensitivity to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a primary driver of regional climate, was the best predictor of synchrony. Combining sensitivity to climate and dispersal propensity into a single model did not greatly increase model performance, confirming the primacy of climatic sensitivity for driving spatial synchrony in butterflies. Finally, we uncovered a relationship between spatial synchrony and population decline that is consistent with theory, but small in magnitude, which suggests that the degree to which populations fluctuate in synchrony is of limited use for understanding the ongoing decline of the Northern California butterfly fauna. PMID:28791146

Do interactions of land use and climate affect productivity of waterbirds and prairie-pothole wetlands?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anteau, Michael J.

2012-01-01

Availability of aquatic invertebrates on migration and breeding areas influences recruitment of ducks and shorebirds. In wetlands of Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), aquatic invertebrate production primarily is driven by interannual fluctuations of water levels in response to wet-dry cycles in climate. However, this understanding comes from studying basins that are minimally impacted by agricultural landscape modifications. In the past 100–150 years, a large proportion of wetlands within the PPR have been altered; often water was drained from smaller to larger wetlands at lower elevations creating consolidated, interconnected basins. Here I present a case study and I hypothesize that large basins receiving inflow from consolidation drainage have reduced water-level fluctuations in response to climate cycles than those in undrained landscapes, resulting in relatively stable wetlands that have lower densities of invertebrate forage for ducks and shorebirds and also less foraging habitat, especially for shorebirds. Furthermore, stable water-levels and interconnected basins may favor introduced or invasive species (e.g., cattail [Typha spp.] or fish) because native communities "evolved" in a dynamic and isolated system. Accordingly, understanding interactions between water-level fluctuations and landscape modifications is a prerequisite step to modeling effects of climate change on wetland hydrology and productivity and concomitant recruitment of waterbirds.

Fluctuating environments, sexual selection and the evolution of flexible mate choice in birds.

PubMed

Botero, Carlos A; Rubenstein, Dustin R

2012-01-01

Environmentally-induced fluctuation in the form and strength of natural selection can drive the evolution of morphology, physiology, and behavior. Here we test the idea that fluctuating climatic conditions may also influence the process of sexual selection by inducing unexpected reversals in the relative quality or sexual attractiveness of potential breeding partners. Although this phenomenon, known as 'ecological cross-over', has been documented in a variety of species, it remains unclear the extent to which it has driven the evolution of major interspecific differences in reproductive behavior. We show that after controlling for potentially influential life history and demographic variables, there are significant positive associations between the variability and predictability of annual climatic cycles and the prevalence of infidelity and divorce within populations of a taxonomically diverse array of socially monogamous birds. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that environmental factors have shaped the evolution of reproductive flexibility and suggest that in the absence of severe time constraints, secondary mate choice behaviors can help prevent, correct, or minimize the negative consequences of ecological cross-overs. Our findings also illustrate how a basic evolutionary process like sexual selection is susceptible to the increasing variability and unpredictability of climatic conditions that is resulting from climate change.

Climate-driven shifts in quantity and seasonality of river discharge over the past 1000 years from the hydrographic apex of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfe, Brent B.; Hall, Roland I.; Edwards, Thomas W. D.; Jarvis, Suzanne R.; Sinnatamby, R. Niloshini; Yi, Yi; Johnston, John W.

2008-12-01

Runoff generated from high elevations is the primary source of freshwater for western North America, yet this critical resource is managed on the basis of short instrumental records that capture an insufficient range of climatic conditions. Here we probe the effects of climate change over the past ~1000 years on river discharge in the upper Mackenzie River system based on paleoenvironmental information from the Peace-Athabasca Delta. The delta landscape responds to hydroclimatic changes with marked variability, while Lake Athabasca level appears to directly monitor overall water availability. The latter fluctuated systematically over the past millennium, with the highest levels occurring in concert with maximum glacier extent during the Little Ice Age, and the lowest during the 11th century, prior to medieval glacier expansion. Recent climate-driven hydrological change appears to be on a trajectory to even lower levels as high-elevation snow and glacier meltwater contributions both continue to decline.

Market-oriented ethanol and corn-trade policies can reduce climate-induced US corn price volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Monika; Hertel, Thomas; Diffenbaugh, Noah

2014-05-01

Agriculture is closely affected by climate. Over the past decade, biofuels have emerged as another important factor shaping the agricultural sector. We ask whether the presence of the US ethanol sector can play a role in moderating increases in US corn price variability, projected to occur in response to near-term global warming. Our findings suggest that the answer to this question depends heavily on the underlying forces shaping the ethanol industry. If mandate-driven, there is little doubt that the presence of the corn-ethanol sector will exacerbate price volatility. However, if market-driven, then the emergence of the corn-ethanol sector can be a double-edged sword for corn price volatility, possibly cushioning the impact of increased climate driven supply volatility, but also inheriting volatility from the newly integrated energy markets via crude oil price fluctuations. We find that empirically the former effect dominates, reducing price volatility by 27%. In contrast, mandates on ethanol production increase future price volatility by 54% in under future climate after 2020. We also consider the potential for liberalized international corn trade to cushion corn price volatility in the US. Our results suggest that allowing corn to move freely internationally serves to reduce the impact of near-term climate change on US corn price volatility by 8%.

Energy-balance climate models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

North, G. R.; Cahalan, R. F.; Coakley, J. A., Jr.

1980-01-01

An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed.

Energy balance climate models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

North, G. R.; Cahalan, R. F.; Coakley, J. A., Jr.

1981-01-01

An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved, and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed.

Sedimentology, geochemistry and OSL dating of the alluvial succession in the northern Gujarat alluvial plain (western India) - A record to evaluate the sensitivity of a semiarid fluvial system to the climatic and tectonic forcing since the late Marine Isotopic Stage 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Falguni; Shukla, Anil D.; Patel, R. C.; Rastogi, B. K.; Juyal, Navin

2017-11-01

The alluvial successions in the northern Gujarat alluvial plain (western India) have been investigated for reconstructing the climatic fluctuations during the last 40 ka. Alluvial architecture and geochemical proxies indicate prevalence of a strengthened Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) with fluctuations between the late Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS 3; 37 ka) to the early MIS 2 (27 ka). A gradual onset of aridity (declining ISM) after 27 ka with peak aridity at 22 ka is observed. A gradual strengthening of ISM at around 18 and > 12 ka followed by a short reversal in ISM intensity between 12 and 11 ka, is attributed to the Younger-Dryas (YD) cooling event. The aeolian sand sheet dated to 6 and 3.5 ka represents the onset of regional aridity. Following this, a short-lived humid phase was observed after 2 ka, which includes the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). The study suggests that the variability in the ISM to the latitudinal migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone was caused by insolation-driven cooling and warming events in the North Atlantic. The incision of the valley fill alluvium occurred in two distinct phases. The older incision phase occurred after 11 ka and before 6 ka, whereas the younger incision phase that led to the development of present day topography is bracketed between 3.5 ka and before 1 ka. The older incision phase is ascribed to the early to mid-Holocene enhanced ISM (climatically driven), whereas the younger incision seems to be modulated by the activation of basement faults (tectonically driven).

Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe.

PubMed

Schmid, Boris V; Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2015-03-10

The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe.

Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

PubMed Central

Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W. Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2015-01-01

The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe. PMID:25713390

Fluctuating temperature leads to evolution of thermal generalism and preadaptation to novel environments.

PubMed

Ketola, Tarmo; Mikonranta, Lauri; Zhang, Ji; Saarinen, Kati; Ormälä, Anni-Maria; Friman, Ville-Petri; Mappes, Johanna; Laakso, Jouni

2013-10-01

Environmental fluctuations can select for generalism, which is also hypothesized to increase organisms' ability to invade novel environments. Here, we show that across a range of temperatures, opportunistic bacterial pathogen Serratia marcescens that evolved in fluctuating temperature (daily variation between 24°C and 38°C, mean 31°C) outperforms the strains that evolved in constant temperature (31°C). The growth advantage was also evident in novel environments in the presence of parasitic viruses and predatory protozoans, but less clear in the presence of stressful chemicals. Adaptation to fluctuating temperature also led to reduced virulence in Drosophila melanogaster host, which suggests that generalism can still be costly in terms of reduced fitness in other ecological contexts. While supporting the hypothesis that evolution of generalism is coupled with tolerance to several novel environments, our results also suggest that thermal fluctuations driven by the climate change could affect both species' invasiveness and virulence. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Two major Cenozoic episodes of phosphogenesis recorded in equatorial Pacific seamount deposits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hein, J.R.; Hsueh-Wen, Yeh; Gunn, S.H.; Sliter, W.V.; Benninger, L.M.; Chung-Ho, Wang

1993-01-01

The phosphorites occur in a wide variety of forms, but most commonly carbonate fluorapatite (CFA) replaced middle Eocene and older carbonate sediment in a deep water environment (>1000 m). Element ratios distinguish seamount phosphorites from continental margin, plateau, and insular phosphorites. Uranium and thorium contents are low and total rare earch element (REE) contents are generally high. The paleoceanographic conditions initiated and sustained development of phosphorite by accumulation of dissolved phosphorus in the deep sea during relatively stable climatic conditions when oceanic circulation was sluggish. Fluctuations in climate, sealevel, and upwelling that accompanied the climate transitions may have driven cycles of enrichment and depletion of the deep-sea phosphorus reservoir. -from Authors

Limited hydrologic response to Pleistocene climate change in deep vadose zones - Yucca Mountain, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paces, J.B.; Neymark, L.A.; Whelan, J.F.; Wooden, J.L.; Lund, S.P.; Marshall, B.D.

2010-01-01

Understanding the movement of water through thick vadose zones, especially on time scales encompassing long-term climate change, is increasingly important as societies utilize semi-arid environments for both water resources and sites viewed as favorable for long-term disposal or storage of hazardous waste. Hydrologic responses to Pleistocene climate change within a deep vadose zone in the eastern Mojave Desert at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, were evaluated by uranium-series dating of finely layered hyalitic opal using secondary ion mass spectrometry. Opal is present within cm-thick secondary hydrogenic mineral crusts coating floors of lithophysal cavities in fractured volcanic rocks at depths of 200 to 300 m below land surface. Uranium concentrations in opal fluctuate systematically between 5 and 550 μg/g. Age-calibrated profiles of uranium concentration correlate with regional climate records over the last 300,000 years and produce time-series spectral peaks that have distinct periodicities of 100- and 41-ka, consistent with planetary orbital parameters. These results indicate that the chemical compositions of percolating solutions varied in response to near-surface, climate-driven processes. However, slow (micrometers per thousand years), relatively uniform growth rates of secondary opal and calcite deposition spanning several glacial–interglacial climate cycles imply that water fluxes in the deep vadose zone remained low and generally buffered from the large fluctuations in available surface moisture during different climates.

Compensatory Water Effects Link Yearly Global Land CO2 Sink Changes to Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Tramontana, Gianluca; Viovy, Nicolas; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Wang, Ying-Ping; Weber, Ulrich; Weber, Ulrich; Zaehle, Soenke; Zeng, Ning;

Life cycle ecophysiology of small pelagic fish and climate-driven changes in populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peck, Myron A.; Reglero, Patricia; Takahashi, Motomitsu; Catalán, Ignacio A.

2013-09-01

Due to their population characteristics and trophodynamic role, small pelagic fishes are excellent bio-indicators of climate-driven changes in marine systems world-wide. We argue that making robust projections of future changes in the productivity and distribution of small pelagics will require a cause-and-effect understanding of historical changes based upon physiological principles. Here, we reviewed the ecophysiology of small pelagic (clupeiform) fishes including a matrix of abiotic and biotic extrinsic factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, light, and prey characteristics) and stage-specific vital rates: (1) adult spawning, (2) survival and development of eggs and yolk sac larvae, and (3) feeding and growth of larvae, post-larvae and juveniles. Emphasis was placed on species inhabiting Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic (European) waters for which summary papers are particularly scarce compared to anchovy and sardine in upwelling systems. Our review revealed that thermal niches (optimal and sub-optimal ranges in temperatures) were species- and stage-specific but that temperature effects only partly explained observed changes in the distribution and/or productivity of populations in the Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic; changes in temperature may be necessary but not sufficient to induce population-level shifts. Prey availability during the late larval and early juvenile period was a common, density-dependent mechanism linked to fluctuations in populations but recruitment mechanisms were system-specific suggesting that generalizations of climate drivers across systems should be avoided. We identified gaps in knowledge regarding basic elements of the growth physiology of each life stage that will require additional field and laboratory study. Avenues of research are recommended that will aid the development of models that provide more robust, physiological-based projections of the population dynamics of these and other small pelagic fish. In our opinion, the continued development of biophysical models that close the life cycle (depict all life stages) offers the best chance of revealing processes causing historical fluctuations on the productivity and distribution of small pelagic fishes and to project future climate-driven impacts. Correctly representing physiological-based mechanisms will increase confidence in the outcomes of models simulating the potential impacts of bottom-up processes, a first step towards evaluating the mixture of factors and processes (e.g. intra-guild dynamics, predation, fisheries exploitation) which interact with climate to affect populations of small pelagic fishes. Understand the impacts of reduced growth rates during the juvenile stage on the process of maturation and spawning condition of small pelagic fishes. Examine the effects of changes in prey quality on the duration and magnitude of spawning by small pelagic fishes to capture how climate-driven changes in zooplankton species composition might act as a “bottom-up” regulator of fish productivity. Identify the drivers for spawning location and timing to better understand how spawning dynamics may be influenced by climate change (e.g. changes in water salinity or turbidity resulting from changes in river discharges or wind-driven turbulence, respectively).

Surface area changes of Himalayan ponds as a proxy of hydrological climate-driven fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salerno, Franco; Thakuri, Sudeep; Guyennon, Nicolas; Viviano, Gaetano; Tartari, Gianni

2016-04-01

The meteorological measurements at high-elevations of the Himalayan range are scarce due to the harsh conditions of these environments which limit the suitable maintenance of weather stations. As a consequence, the meager knowledge on how the climate is changed in the last decades at Himalayan high-elevations sets a serious limit upon the interpretation of relationships between causes and recent observed effects on the cryosphere. Although the glaciers masses reduction in Himalaya is currently sufficiently well described, how changes in climate drivers (precipitation and temperature) have influenced the melting and shrinkage processes are less clear. Consequently, the uncertainty related to the recent past amplifies when future forecasts are done, both for climate and impacts. In this context, a substantial body of research has already demonstrated the high sensitivity of lakes and ponds to climate. Some climate-related signals are highly visible and easily measurable in lakes. For example, climate-driven fluctuations in lake surface area have been observed in many remote sites. On interior Tibetan Plateau the lake growth since the late 1990s is mainly attributed to increased regional precipitation and weakened evaporation. Differently, other authors attribute at the observed increases of lake surfaces at the enhanced glacier melting. In our opinion these divergences found in literature are due to the type of glacial lakes considered in the study and in particular their relationship with glaciers. In general, in Himalaya three types of glacial lakes can be distinguished: (i) lakes that are not directly connected with glaciers, but that may have a glacier located in their basin (unconnected glacial lakes); (ii) supraglacial lakes, which develop on the surface of the glacier downstream; or (iii) proglacial lakes, which are moraine-dammed lakes that are in contact with the glacier front. Some of these lakes store large quantities of water and are susceptible to GLOFs (glacial lake outburst floods). Whereas the lake surface areas variations of these lakes are strictly connected with the ablation processes and glacier velocities, variation related to unconnected glacial lakes are possibly influenced by only the resulting glacier melting. This difference with the other lake types makes unconnected glacial lakes potential indicators of changes of the main water balance components of high-elevated lake basins as: precipitation, glacier melting, and evapotranspiration. An evaluable opportunity for a fine-scale investigation on climate-driven fluctuations in lake surface area is particularly evident on the south slopes of Mt. Everest (Nepal), which is one of the most heavily glacierized parts of Himalaya, at same time, the region that is most characterized by glacial lakes in the overall Hindu-Kush-Himalaya range, and in which a twenty years series of temperature and precipitation has been recently reconstructed for high-elevations (5000 m a.s.l.). This contribution examines the surface area changes of unconnected glacial ponds, i.e., that are not directly connected with glaciers, on the south side of Mt. Everest in the last fifty years as part of an effort to evaluate if they can be considered potential indicators useful to detect how the climate is changed at high-elevations of the Himalayan range.

The seismic-stratigraphic record of lake-level fluctuations in Lake Challa: Hydrological stability and change in equatorial East Africa over the last 140 kyr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moernaut, J.; Verschuren, D.; Charlet, F.; Kristen, I.; Fagot, M.; De Batist, M.

2010-02-01

Seismic-reflection data from crater lake Challa (Mt. Kilimanjaro, equatorial East Africa) reveal a ˜ 210-m thick sedimentary infill containing distinct seismic-stratigraphic signatures of late-Quaternary lake-level fluctuations. Extrapolation of a well-constrained age model on the cored upper part of the sequence suggests that these lake-level fluctuations represent a detailed and continuous record of moisture-balance variation in equatorial East Africa over the last 140 kyr. This record indicates that the most severe aridity occurred during peak Penultimate glaciation immediately before ˜ 128 kyr BP (coeval with Heinrich event 11) and during a Last Interglacial 'megadrought' period between ˜ 114 and ˜ 97 kyr BP; in comparison, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) aridity was modest. It was preceded by ˜ 75 000 years of relatively stable and moist climate conditions interrupted by eleven short-lived dry spells, five of which match the timing of Heinrich events 2 to 6. Climate history near the East African equator reflects variation in the precessional forcing of monsoon rainfall modulated by orbital eccentricity, but precession-driven moisture fluctuations were less extreme than those observed in northern and southern tropical Africa. The near-continuous moist climate from ˜ 97 to 20.5 kyr BP recorded in the Lake Challa record contrasts with the trend towards greater aridity after ˜ 70 kyr BP documented in equatorial West Africa. This long period of moist glacial climate and a short, relatively modest LGM drought can be attributed to greater independence of western Indian Ocean monsoon dynamics from northern high-latitude glaciation than those in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This rather persistent moist glacial climate regime may have helped maintain high biodiversity in the tropical forest ecosystems of the Eastern Arc mountains in Tanzania.

Climate events synchronize the dynamics of a resident vertebrate community in the high Arctic.

PubMed

Hansen, Brage B; Grøtan, Vidar; Aanes, Ronny; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Stien, Audun; Fuglei, Eva; Ims, Rolf A; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Pedersen, Ashild Ø

2013-01-18

Recently accumulated evidence has documented a climate impact on the demography and dynamics of single species, yet the impact at the community level is poorly understood. Here, we show that in Svalbard in the high Arctic, extreme weather events synchronize population fluctuations across an entire community of resident vertebrate herbivores and cause lagged correlations with the secondary consumer, the arctic fox. This synchronization is mainly driven by heavy rain on snow that encapsulates the vegetation in ice and blocks winter forage availability for herbivores. Thus, indirect and bottom-up climate forcing drives the population dynamics across all overwintering vertebrates. Icing is predicted to become more frequent in the circumpolar Arctic and may therefore strongly affect terrestrial ecosystem characteristics.

Pacing of Paleozoic macroevolutionary rates by Milankovitch grand cycles.

PubMed

Crampton, James S; Meyers, Stephen R; Cooper, Roger A; Sadler, Peter M; Foote, Michael; Harte, David

2018-05-29

Periodic fluctuations in past biodiversity, speciation, and extinction have been proposed, with extremely long periods ranging from 26 to 62 million years, although forcing mechanisms remain speculative. In contrast, well-understood periodic Milankovitch climate forcing represents a viable driver for macroevolutionary fluctuations, although little evidence for such fluctuation exists except during the Late Cenozoic. The reality, magnitude, and drivers of periodic fluctuations in macroevolutionary rates are of interest given long-standing debate surrounding the relative roles of intrinsic biotic interactions vs. extrinsic environmental factors as drivers of biodiversity change. Here, we show that, over a time span of 60 million years, between 9 and 16% of the variance in biological turnover (i.e., speciation probability plus species extinction probability) in a major Early Paleozoic zooplankton group, the graptoloids, can be explained by long-period astronomical cycles (Milankovitch "grand cycles") associated with Earth's orbital eccentricity (2.6 million years) and obliquity (1.3 million years). These grand cycles modulate climate variability, alternating times of relative stability in the environment with times of maximum volatility. We infer that these cycles influenced graptolite speciation and extinction through climate-driven changes to oceanic circulation and structure. Our results confirm the existence of Milankovitch grand cycles in the Early Paleozoic Era and show that known processes related to the mechanics of the Solar System were shaping marine macroevolutionary rates comparatively early in the history of complex life. We present an application of hidden Markov models to macroevolutionary time series and protocols for the evaluation of statistical significance in spectral analysis.

Attribution of glacier fluctuations to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oerlemans, J.

2012-04-01

Glacier retreat is a worlwide phenomenon, which started around the middle of the 19th century. During the period 1800-1850 the number of retreating and advancing glaciers was roughly equal (based on 42 records from different continents). During the period 1850-1900 about 92% of all mountain glaciers became shorter (based on 65 records). After this, the percentage of shrinking glaciers has been around 90% until the present time. The glacier signal is rather coherent over the globe, especially when surging and calving glaciers are not considered (for such glaciers the response to climate change is often masked by length changes related to internal dynamics). From theoretical studies as well as extensive meteorological work on glaciers, the processes that control the response of glaciers to climate change are now basically understood. It is useful to make a difference between geometric factors (e.g. slope, altitudinal range, hypsometry) and climatic setting (e.g. seasonal cycle, precipitation). The most sensitive glaciers appear to be flat glaciers in a maritime climate. Characterizing the dynamic properties of a glacier requires at least two quantities: the climate sensitivity, expressing how the equilibrium glacier state depends on the climatic conditions, and the response time, indicating how fast a glacier approaches a new equilibrium state after a stepwise change in the climatic forcing. These quantities can be estimated from relatively simple theory, showing that differences among glaciers are substantial. For larger glaciers, climate sensitivities (in terms of glacier length) vary from 1 to 8 km per 100 m change in the equilibrium-line altitude. Response times are mainly in the range of 20 to 200 years, with most values between 30 and 80 years. Changes in the equilibrium-line altitude or net mass balance of a glacier are mainly driven by fluctuations in air temperature, precipitation, and global radiation. Energy-balance modelling for many glaciers shows that, globally speaking, a 1 K temperature increase has the same effect as a ~25% decrease in precipitation, or a ~15% increase in global radiation. However, the relative importance of these drivers depends significantly on the climatic setting (notably continentality). In this contribution I will give a brief survey of glacier fluctuations over the past few centuries, and provide arguments that on the worldwide scale air temperature must have been the main driver of these fluctuations. A history of global mean temperature that explains the observed glacier fluctuations best will be discussed. On smaller spatial (regional) and temporal (decades) scales, changes in precipitation become important. Both with respect to the attribution problem (what caused the glacier fluctuations in the past?) and the projection issue (what will happen in the next 100 years?), it is important that many more glaciers are explicitly studied with numerical models. I will argue that for non-calving glaciers these models can be relatively simple.

Mangrove microclimates alter seedling dynamics at the range edge.

PubMed

Devaney, John L; Lehmann, Michael; Feller, Ilka C; Parker, John D

2017-10-01

Recent climate warming has led to asynchronous species migrations, with major consequences for ecosystems worldwide. In woody communities, localized microclimates have the potential to create feedback mechanisms that can alter the rate of species range shifts attributed to macroclimate drivers alone. Mangrove encroachment into saltmarsh in many areas is driven by a reduction in freeze events, and this encroachment can further modify local climate, but the subsequent impacts on mangrove seedling dynamics are unknown. We monitored microclimate conditions beneath mangrove canopies and adjacent open saltmarsh at a freeze-sensitive mangrove-saltmarsh ecotone and assessed survival of experimentally transplanted mangrove seedlings. Mangrove canopies buffered night time cooling during the winter, leading to interspecific differences in freeze damage on mangrove seedlings. However, mangrove canopies also altered biotic interactions. Herbivore damage was higher under canopies, leading to greater mangrove seedling mortality beneath canopies relative to saltmarsh. While warming-induced expansion of mangroves can lead to positive microclimate feedbacks, simultaneous fluctuations in biotic drivers can also alter seedling dynamics. Thus, climate change can drive divergent feedback mechanisms through both abiotic and biotic channels, highlighting the importance of vegetation-microclimate interactions as important moderators of climate driven range shifts. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Climatic and land-use driven change of runoff throughout Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worman, A. L. E.; Riml, J.; Lindstrom, G.

2015-12-01

Changes in runoff can be caused by climatic variations, land-use changes and water regulation. In this paper we propose a separation of the power spectral response of runoff in watersheds in terms of the product of the power spectra of precipitation and the impulse response function for the watershed. This allows a formal separation of the spectral response in climatic factors - the precipitation - from those of land-use change and regulation - the impulse response function. The latter function characterizes the surface water-groundwater interaction, stream network topology and open channel hydraulics. Based on daily data of digitalized hydro-climatological data from 1961, we constructed synthetic, but calibrated data of runoff from 1001 watersheds in Sweden. From spectral analysis of the data we found periodic fluctuations occurring on time scales of about a decade and a bi-annual peak. These multi-annual fluctuations could be statistically linked through the coherence spectra to climatic indices like the NAO, PDO, geostrophic wind velocity and sun spot numbers on common periods of 3,6 and 7,6 years. Such long-term fluctuations in runoff are not significantly affected by the land-use or regulation other than indirectly through impact on local hydro-climate. Based on a spectral separation of precipitation and impulse response function of the watersheds, we found that the intra-annual variation in runoff was primarily affected by the land-use change in 79 unregulated catchments with up to century-long time series of measured daily discharge. There is a statistically significant increasing slope of the catchments impulse response function for 63 of the 79 catchments and this suggest a significant hydrological effect of land-use practice in agriculture, urbanisation and forestry.

Does the ocean-atmosphere system have more than one stable mode of operation?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Broecker, W. S.; Peteet, D. M.; Rind, D.

1985-01-01

The climate record obtained from two long Greenland ice cores reveals several brief climate oscillations during glacial time. The most recent of these oscillations, also found in continental pollen records, has greatest impact in the area under the meteorological influence of the northern Atlantic, but none in the United States. This suggests that these oscillations are caused by fluctuations in the formation rate of deep water in the northern Atlantic. As the present production of deep water in this area is driven by an excess of evaporation over precipitation and continental runoff, atmospheric water transport may be an important element in climate change. Changes in the production rate of deep water in this sector of the ocean may push the climate system from one quasi-stable mode of operation to another.

Scaling up nanoscale water-driven energy conversion into evaporation-driven engines and generators

PubMed Central

Chen, Xi; Goodnight, Davis; Gao, Zhenghan; Cavusoglu, Ahmet H.; Sabharwal, Nina; DeLay, Michael; Driks, Adam; Sahin, Ozgur

2015-01-01

Evaporation is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the natural environment and a dominant form of energy transfer in the Earth's climate. Engineered systems rarely, if ever, use evaporation as a source of energy, despite myriad examples of such adaptations in the biological world. Here, we report evaporation-driven engines that can power common tasks like locomotion and electricity generation. These engines start and run autonomously when placed at air–water interfaces. They generate rotary and piston-like linear motion using specially designed, biologically based artificial muscles responsive to moisture fluctuations. Using these engines, we demonstrate an electricity generator that rests on water while harvesting its evaporation to power a light source, and a miniature car (weighing 0.1 kg) that moves forward as the water in the car evaporates. Evaporation-driven engines may find applications in powering robotic systems, sensors, devices and machinery that function in the natural environment. PMID:26079632

Scaling up nanoscale water-driven energy conversion into evaporation-driven engines and generators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xi; Goodnight, Davis; Gao, Zhenghan; Cavusoglu, Ahmet H.; Sabharwal, Nina; Delay, Michael; Driks, Adam; Sahin, Ozgur

2015-06-01

Evaporation is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the natural environment and a dominant form of energy transfer in the Earth's climate. Engineered systems rarely, if ever, use evaporation as a source of energy, despite myriad examples of such adaptations in the biological world. Here, we report evaporation-driven engines that can power common tasks like locomotion and electricity generation. These engines start and run autonomously when placed at air-water interfaces. They generate rotary and piston-like linear motion using specially designed, biologically based artificial muscles responsive to moisture fluctuations. Using these engines, we demonstrate an electricity generator that rests on water while harvesting its evaporation to power a light source, and a miniature car (weighing 0.1 kg) that moves forward as the water in the car evaporates. Evaporation-driven engines may find applications in powering robotic systems, sensors, devices and machinery that function in the natural environment.

Distinguishing globally-driven changes from regional- and local-scale impacts: The case for long-term and broad-scale studies of recovery from pollution.

PubMed

Hawkins, S J; Evans, A J; Mieszkowska, N; Adams, L C; Bray, S; Burrows, M T; Firth, L B; Genner, M J; Leung, K M Y; Moore, P J; Pack, K; Schuster, H; Sims, D W; Whittington, M; Southward, E C

2017-11-30

Marine ecosystems are subject to anthropogenic change at global, regional and local scales. Global drivers interact with regional- and local-scale impacts of both a chronic and acute nature. Natural fluctuations and those driven by climate change need to be understood to diagnose local- and regional-scale impacts, and to inform assessments of recovery. Three case studies are used to illustrate the need for long-term studies: (i) separation of the influence of fishing pressure from climate change on bottom fish in the English Channel; (ii) recovery of rocky shore assemblages from the Torrey Canyon oil spill in the southwest of England; (iii) interaction of climate change and chronic Tributyltin pollution affecting recovery of rocky shore populations following the Torrey Canyon oil spill. We emphasize that "baselines" or "reference states" are better viewed as envelopes that are dependent on the time window of observation. Recommendations are made for adaptive management in a rapidly changing world. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Temperature drives abundance fluctuations, but spatial dynamics is constrained by landscape configuration: Implications for climate-driven range shift in a butterfly.

PubMed

Fourcade, Yoan; Ranius, Thomas; Öckinger, Erik

2017-10-01

Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins. Here, using a butterfly (Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km in the future. Second, we used a 13-year monitoring dataset including the majority of all habitat patches at the species northern range margin to assess the synergetic impact of temperature fluctuations and spatial distribution of habitat, microclimatic conditions and habitat quality, on abundance and colonization-extinction dynamics. The fluctuation in abundance between years was almost entirely determined by the variation in temperature during the species larval development. In contrast, colonization and extinction dynamics were better explained by patch area, between-patch connectivity and host plant density. This suggests that the response of the species to future climate change may be limited by future land use and how its host plants respond to climate change. It is, thus, probable that dispersal limitation will prevent P. armoricanus from reaching its potential future distribution. We argue that models of range dynamics should consider the factors influencing metapopulation dynamics, especially at the range edges, and not only broad-scale climate. It includes factors acting at the scale of habitat patches such as habitat quality and microclimate and landscape-scale factors such as the spatial configuration of potentially suitable patches. Knowledge of population dynamics under various environmental conditions, and the incorporation of realistic scenarios of future land use, appears essential to provide predictions useful for actions mitigating the negative effects of climate change. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Sensitivity of seafloor bathymetry to climate-driven fluctuations in mid-ocean ridge magma supply.

PubMed

Olive, J-A; Behn, M D; Ito, G; Buck, W R; Escartín, J; Howell, S

2015-10-16

Recent studies have proposed that the bathymetric fabric of the seafloor formed at mid-ocean ridges records rapid (23,000 to 100,000 years) fluctuations in ridge magma supply caused by sealevel changes that modulate melt production in the underlying mantle. Using quantitative models of faulting and magma emplacement, we demonstrate that, in fact, seafloor-shaping processes act as a low-pass filter on variations in magma supply, strongly damping fluctuations shorter than about 100,000 years. We show that the systematic decrease in dominant seafloor wavelengths with increasing spreading rate is best explained by a model of fault growth and abandonment under a steady magma input. This provides a robust framework for deciphering the footprint of mantle melting in the fabric of abyssal hills, the most common topographic feature on Earth. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Long-term resistance to simulated climate change in an infertile grassland.

PubMed

Grime, J Philip; Fridley, Jason D; Askew, Andrew P; Thompson, Ken; Hodgson, John G; Bennett, Chris R

2008-07-22

Climate shifts over this century are widely expected to alter the structure and functioning of temperate plant communities. However, long-term climate experiments in natural vegetation are rare and largely confined to systems with the capacity for rapid compositional change. In unproductive, grazed grassland at Buxton in northern England (U.K.), one of the longest running experimental manipulations of temperature and rainfall reveals vegetation highly resistant to climate shifts maintained over 13 yr. Here we document this resistance in the form of: (i) constancy in the relative abundance of growth forms and maintained dominance by long-lived, slow-growing grasses, sedges, and small forbs; (ii) immediate but minor shifts in the abundance of several species that have remained stable over the course of the experiment; (iii) no change in productivity in response to climate treatments with the exception of reduction from chronic summer drought; and (iv) only minor species losses in response to drought and winter heating. Overall, compositional changes induced by 13-yr exposure to climate regime change were less than short-term fluctuations in species abundances driven by interannual climate fluctuations. The lack of progressive compositional change, coupled with the long-term historical persistence of unproductive grasslands in northern England, suggests the community at Buxton possesses a stabilizing capacity that leads to long-term persistence of dominant species. Unproductive ecosystems provide a refuge for many threatened plants and animals and perform a diversity of ecosystem services. Our results support the view that changing land use and overexploitation rather than climate change per se constitute the primary threats to these fragile ecosystems.

Comment on "Sensitivity of seafloor bathymetry to climate-driven fluctuations in mid-ocean ridge magma supply".

PubMed

Tolstoy, Maya

2016-07-15

Olive et al (Reports, 16 October 2015, p. 310) and Goff (Technical Comment, 4 September 2015, p. 1065) raise important concerns with respect to recent findings of Milankovitch cycles in seafloor bathymetry. However, their results inherently support that the Southern East Pacific Rise is the optimum place to look for such signals and, in fact, models match those observations quite closely. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

A GEOCLIM simulation of climatic and biogeochemical consequences of Pangea breakup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnadieu, Y.; GoddéRis, Y.; Pierrehumbert, R.; Dromart, G.; Fluteau, F.; Jacob, R.

2006-11-01

Large fluctuations in continental configuration occur throughout the Mesozoic. While it has long been recognized that paleogeography may potentially influence atmospheric CO2 via the continental silicate weathering feedback, no numerical simulations have been done, because of the lack of a spatially resolved climate-carbon model. GEOCLIM, a coupled numerical model of the climate and global biogeochemical cycles, is used to investigate the consequences of the Pangea breakup. The climate module of the GEOCLIM model is the FOAM atmospheric general circulation model, allowing the calculation of the consumption of atmospheric CO2 through continental silicate weathering with a spatial resolution of 7.5°long × 4.5°lat. Seven time slices have been simulated. We show that the breakup of the Pangea supercontinent triggers an increase in continental runoff, resulting in enhanced atmospheric CO2 consumption through silicate weathering. As a result, atmospheric CO2 falls from values above 3000 ppmv during the Triassic down to rather low levels during the Cretaceous (around 400 ppmv), resulting in a decrease in global mean annual continental temperatures from about 20°C to 10°C. Silicate weathering feedback and paleogeography both act to force the Earth system toward a dry and hot world reaching its optimum over the last 260 Myr during the Middle-Late Triassic. In the super continent case, given the persistent aridity, the model generates high CO2 values to produce very warm continental temperatures. Conversely, in the fragmented case, the runoff becomes the most important contributor to the silicate weathering rate, hence producing a CO2 drawdown and a fall in continental temperatures. Finally, another unexpected outcome is the pronounced fluctuation in carbonate accumulation simulated by the model in response to the Pangea breakup. These fluctuations are driven by changes in continental carbonate weathering flux. Accounting for the fluctuations in area available for carbonate platforms, the simulated ratio of carbonate deposition between neritic and deep sea environments is in better agreement with available data.

10Be in late deglacial climate simulated by ECHAM5-HAM - Part 2: Isolating the solar signal from 10Be deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heikkilä, U.; Shi, X.; Phipps, S. J.; Smith, A. M.

2013-10-01

This study investigates the effect of deglacial climate on the deposition of the solar proxy 10Be globally, and at two specific locations, the GRIP site at Summit, Central Greenland, and the Law Dome site in coastal Antarctica. The deglacial climate is represented by three 30 yr time slice simulations of 10 000 BP (years before present = 1950 CE), 11 000 BP and 12 000 BP, compared with a preindustrial control simulation. The model used is the ECHAM5-HAM atmospheric aerosol-climate model, driven with sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover simulated using the CSIRO Mk3L coupled climate system model. The focus is on isolating the 10Be production signal, driven by solar variability, from the weather or climate driven noise in the 10Be deposition flux during different stages of climate. The production signal varies on lower frequencies, dominated by the 11yr solar cycle within the 30 yr time scale of these experiments. The climatic noise is of higher frequencies. We first apply empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis to global 10Be deposition on the annual scale and find that the first principal component, consisting of the spatial pattern of mean 10Be deposition and the temporally varying solar signal, explains 64% of the variability. The following principal components are closely related to those of precipitation. Then, we apply ensemble empirical decomposition (EEMD) analysis on the time series of 10Be deposition at GRIP and at Law Dome, which is an effective method for adaptively decomposing the time series into different frequency components. The low frequency components and the long term trend represent production and have reduced noise compared to the entire frequency spectrum of the deposition. The high frequency components represent climate driven noise related to the seasonal cycle of e.g. precipitation and are closely connected to high frequencies of precipitation. These results firstly show that the 10Be atmospheric production signal is preserved in the deposition flux to surface even during climates very different from today's both in global data and at two specific locations. Secondly, noise can be effectively reduced from 10Be deposition data by simply applying the EOF analysis in the case of a reasonably large number of available data sets, or by decomposing the individual data sets to filter out high-frequency fluctuations.

Response to Comment on "Sensitivity of seafloor bathymetry to climate-driven fluctuations in mid-ocean ridge magma supply".

PubMed

Olive, J-A; Behn, M D; Ito, G; Buck, W R; Escartín, J; Howell, S

2016-06-17

Huybers et al present new bathymetric spectra from an intermediate-spreading ridge as evidence for a primary contribution of sea level cycles to the morphology of the seafloor. Although we acknowledge the possibility that sea level-modulated magmatic constructions may be superimposed on a first-order tectonic fabric, we emphasize the difficulty of deciphering these different contributions in the frequency domain alone. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Response to Comment on "Sensitivity of seafloor bathymetry to climate-driven fluctuations in mid-ocean ridge magma supply".

PubMed

Olive, J-A; Behn, M D; Ito, G; Buck, W R; Escartín, J; Howell, S

2016-07-15

Tolstoy reports the existence of a characteristic 100 thousand year (ky) period in the bathymetry of fast-spreading seafloor but does not argue that sea level change is a first-order control on seafloor morphology worldwide. Upon evaluating the overlap between tectonic and Milankovitch periodicities across spreading rates, we reemphasize that fast-spreading ridges are the best potential recorders of a sea level signature in seafloor bathymetry. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

A GEOCLIM Simulation Of Climatic And Biogeochemical Consequences Of Pangea Break Up

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnadieu, Y.; Godderis, Y.; Pierrehumbert, R.; Dromart, G.; Jacob, R.

2006-12-01

Large fluctuations in continental configuration occur all along the Mesozoic times. While it has long been recognized that paleogeography may potentially influence atmospheric CO2 via the continental silicate weathering feedback, no numerical simulation have been done given the lack of a spatially resolved climate- carbon model. GEOCLIM, a coupled numerical model of the climate and global biogeochemical cycles, is used to investigate the consequences of the Pangea break up. The climate module of the GEOCLIM model is the FOAM atmospheric general circulation model, allowing the calculation of the consumption of atmospheric CO2 through continental silicate weathering with a spatial resolution of 7.5°long 4.5°lat. Seven time slices have been simulated. We show that the break up of the Pangea supercontinent triggers an increase in continental runoff, resulting in enhanced atmospheric CO2 consumption through silicate weathering. As a result, atmospheric CO2 falls from values above 3000 ppmv during the Triassic, down to rather low levels during the Cretaceous (around 400 ppmv), resulting in a decrease in continental temperatures from about 20°C to 10°C. Silicate weathering feedback and paleogeography both act to force the Earth system toward a dry and hot world reaching its optimum over the last 260 Ma during the Middle-Late Triassic. In the super continent case, given the relative aridity that cannot be climatically overwhelmed, the model generates high CO2 values to produce very warm continental temperatures compensating for the lack of continental humidity. Conversely, in the fragmented case, the runoff becomes the most important contributor to the silicate weathering rate, hence, producing a CO2 drawdown and a fall in continental temperatures. Finally, an other unexpected outcome is the pronounced fluctuations in carbonate accumulation simulated by the model in response to the Pangea break up. These fluctuations are driven by changes in continental carbonate weathering flux. Accounting for the fluctuations in area available for carbonate platforms, the simulated ratio of carbonate deposition between neritic and deep sea environments is in better agreement with available data.

Future soil moisture and temperature extremes imply expanding suitability for rainfed agriculture in temperate drylands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jia, Gensuo; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Munson, Seth M.; Wilson, Scott D.; Tietjen, Britta

2017-01-01

The distribution of rainfed agriculture is expected to respond to climate change and human population growth. However, conditions that support rainfed agriculture are driven by interactions among climate, including climate extremes, and soil moisture availability that have not been well defined. In the temperate regions that support much of the world’s agriculture, these interactions are complicated by seasonal temperature fluctuations that can decouple climate and soil moisture. Here, we show that suitability to support rainfed agriculture can be effectively represented by the interactive effects of just two variables: suitability increases where warm conditions occur with wet soil, and suitability decreases with extreme high temperatures. 21st century projections based on ecohydrological modeling of downscaled climate forecasts imply geographic shifts and overall increases in the area suitable for rainfed agriculture in temperate regions, especially at high latitudes, and pronounced, albeit less widespread, declines in suitable areas in low latitude drylands, especially in Europe. These results quantify the integrative direct and indirect impact of rising temperatures on rainfed agriculture.

A Holocene record of climate-driven shifts in coastal carbon sequestration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mitra, Siddhartha; Zimmerman, A.R.; Hunsinger, G.B.; Willard, D.; Dunn, J.C.

2009-01-01

A sediment core collected in the mesohaline portion of Chesapeake Bay was found to contain periods of increased delivery of refractory black carbon (BC) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The BC was most likely produced by biomass combustion during four centennialscale dry periods as indicated by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), beginning in the late Medieval Warm Period of 1100 CE. In contrast, wetter periods were associated with increased non-BC organic matter influx into the bay, likely due to greater runoff and associated nutrient delivery. In addition, an overall increase in both BC and non-BC organic matter deposition during the past millennium may reflect a shift in climate regime. The finding that carbon sequestration in the coastal zone responds to climate fluctuations at both centennial and millennial scales through fire occurrence and nutrient delivery has implications for past and future climate predictions. Drought-induced fires may lead, on longer timescales, to greater carbon sequestration and, therefore, represent a negative climate feedback. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Sensitivity of seafloor bathymetry to climate-driven fluctuations in mid-ocean ridge magma supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olive, Jean-Arthur; Behn, Mark; Ito, Garrett; Escartin, Javier; Buck, Roger; Howell, Samuel

2016-04-01

Abyssal hills are the most common topographic feature on the surface of the solid Earth, yet the detailed mechanisms through which they are formed remain a matter of debate. Classical seafloor observations suggest hills acquire their shape at mid-ocean ridges through a combination of normal faulting and volcanic accretion. However, recent studies have proposed that the fabric of the seafloor reflects rapid fluctuations in ridge magma supply caused by oscillations in sea level modulating the partial melting process beneath the ridge [Crowley et al., 2015, Science]. In order to move this debate forward, we propose a modeling framework relating the magma supply of a mid-ocean ridge to the morphology of the seafloor it produces, i.e., the spacing and amplitude of abyssal hills. We specifically assess whether fluctuations in melt supply of a given periodicity can be recorded in seafloor bathymetry through (1) static compensation of crustal thickness oscillations, (2) volcanic extrusion, and (3) fault growth modulated by dike injection. We find that topography-building processes are generally insensitive to fluctuations in melt supply on time scales shorter than ~50-100 kyr. Further, we show that the characteristic wavelengths found in seafloor bathymetry across all spreading rates are best explained by simple tectono-magmatic interaction models, and require no periodic (climatic) forcing. Finally, we explore different spreading regimes where a smaller amplitude sea-level signal super-imposed on the dominant faulting signal could be most easily resolved.

A GRASS GIS module to obtain an estimation of glacier behavior under climate change: A pilot study on Italian glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strigaro, Daniele; Moretti, Massimiliano; Mattavelli, Matteo; Frigerio, Ivan; Amicis, Mattia De; Maggi, Valter

2016-09-01

The aim of this work is to integrate the Minimal Glacier Model in a Geographic Information System Python module in order to obtain spatial simulations of glacier retreat and to assess the future scenarios with a spatial representation. The Minimal Glacier Models are a simple yet effective way of estimating glacier response to climate fluctuations. This module can be useful for the scientific and glaciological community in order to evaluate glacier behavior, driven by climate forcing. The module, called r.glacio.model, is developed in a GRASS GIS (GRASS Development Team, 2016) environment using Python programming language combined with different libraries as GDAL, OGR, CSV, math, etc. The module is applied and validated on the Rutor glacier, a glacier in the south-western region of the Italian Alps. This glacier is very large in size and features rather regular and lively dynamics. The simulation is calibrated by reconstructing the 3-dimensional dynamics flow line and analyzing the difference between the simulated flow line length variations and the observed glacier fronts coming from ortophotos and DEMs. These simulations are driven by the past mass balance record. Afterwards, the future assessment is estimated by using climatic drivers provided by a set of General Circulation Models participating in the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project 5 effort. The approach devised in r.glacio.model can be applied to most alpine glaciers to obtain a first-order spatial representation of glacier behavior under climate change.

To what extent can global warming events influence scaling properties of climatic fluctuations in glacial periods?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alberti, Tommaso; Lepreti, Fabio; Vecchio, Antonio; Carbone, Vincenzo

2017-04-01

The Earth's climate is an extremely unstable complex system consisting of nonlinear and still rather unknown interactions among atmosphere, land surface, ice and oceans. The system is mainly driven by solar irradiance, even if internal components as volcanic eruptions and human activities affect the atmospheric composition thus acting as a driver for climate changes. Since the extreme climate variability is the result of a set of phenomena operating from daily to multi-millennial timescales, with different correlation times, a study of the scaling properties of the system can evidence non-trivial persistent structures, internal or external physical processes. Recently, the scaling properties of the paleoclimate changes have been analyzed by distinguish between interglacial and glacial climates [Shao and Ditlevsen, 2016]. The results show that the last glacial record (20-120 kyr BP) presents some elements of multifractality, while the last interglacial period (0-10 kyr BP), say the Holocene period, seems to be characterized by a mono-fractal structure. This is associated to the absence of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events in the interglacial climate that could be the cause for the absence of multifractality. This hypothesis is supported by the analysis of the period between 18 and 27 kyr BP, i.e. during the Last Glacial Period, in which a single DO event have been registred. Through the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) we were able to detect a timescale separation within the Last Glacial Period (20-120 kyr BP) in two main components: a high-frequency component, related to the occurrence of DO events, and a low-frequency one, associated to the cooling/warming phase switch [Alberti et al., 2014]. Here, we investigate the scaling properties of the climate fluctuations within the Last Glacial Period, where abrupt climate changes, characterized by fast increase of temperature usually called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, have been particularly pronounced. By using the MultiFractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA), we show that a multifractal structure exists for both high- and low-frequency fluctuations in Northern and Southern hemispheres, with different scaling exponents, thus indicating a long-range persistence of the climatic variability within the whole Last Glacial Period. Our results evidence that both DO events and cooling/warming cycles must be considered as processes of the internal component of the Earth's climate, rather than processes related to external forcings. This study should be helpful for investigation of the internal origin of climate changes. References Shao, Z.G. and Ditlevsen, P.D., Nature Commun., 7, 10951, (2016). Alberti, T., Lepreti, F., Vecchio, A., Bevacqua, E., Capparelli, V. and Carbone, V., Clim. Past, 10, 1751 (2014).

Empirical evidence of climate's role in Rocky Mountain landscape evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riihimaki, Catherine A.; Reiners, Peter W.

2012-06-01

Climate may be the dominant factor affecting landscape evolution during the late Cenozoic, but models that connect climate and landscape evolution cannot be tested without precise ages of landforms. Zircon (U-Th)/He ages of clinker, metamorphosed rock formed by burning of underlying coal seams, provide constraints on the spatial and temporal patterns of Quaternary erosion in the Powder River basin of Wyoming and Montana. The age distribution of 86 sites shows two temporal patterns: (1) a bias toward younger ages because of erosion of older clinker and (2) periodic occurrence of coal fires likely corresponding with particular climatic regimes. Statistical t tests of the ages and spectral analyses of the age probability density function indicate that these episodes of frequent coal fires most likely correspond with times of high eccentricity in Earth's orbit, possibly driven by increased seasonality in the region causing increased erosion rates and coal exhumation. Correlation of ages with interglacial time periods is weaker. The correlations between climate and coal fires improve when only samples greater than 50 km from the front of the Bighorn Range, the site of the nearest alpine glaciation, are compared. Together, these results indicate that the interaction between upstream glaciation and downstream erosion is likely not the dominant control on Quaternary landscape evolution in the Powder River basin, particularly since 0.5 Ma. Instead, incision rates are likely controlled by the response of streams to climate shifts within the basin itself, possibly changes in local precipitation rates or frequency-magnitude distributions, with no discernable lag time between climate changes and landscape responses. Clinker ages are consistent with numerical models in which stream erosion is driven by fluctuations in stream power on thousand year timescales within the basins, possibly as a result of changing precipitation patterns, and is driven by regional rock uplift on million year timescales.

Scaling up nanoscale water-driven energy conversion into evaporation-driven engines and generators

DOE PAGES

Chen, Xi; Goodnight, Davis; Gao, Zhenghan; ...

2015-06-16

Evaporation is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the natural environment and a dominant form of energy transfer in the Earth’s climate. Engineered systems rarely, if ever, use evaporation as a source of energy, despite myriad examples of such adaptations in the biological world. In this work, we report evaporation-driven engines that can power common tasks like locomotion and electricity generation. These engines start and run autonomously when placed at air–water interfaces. They generate rotary and piston-like linear motion using specially designed, biologically based artificial muscles responsive to moisture fluctuations. Using these engines, we demonstrate an electricity generator that rests on watermore » while harvesting its evaporation to power a light source, and a miniature car (weighing 0.1 kg) that moves forward as the water in the car evaporates. Evaporation-driven engines may find applications in powering robotic systems, sensors, devices and machinery that function in the natural environment.« less

Scaling up nanoscale water-driven energy conversion into evaporation-driven engines and generators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Xi; Goodnight, Davis; Gao, Zhenghan

Evaporation is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the natural environment and a dominant form of energy transfer in the Earth’s climate. Engineered systems rarely, if ever, use evaporation as a source of energy, despite myriad examples of such adaptations in the biological world. In this work, we report evaporation-driven engines that can power common tasks like locomotion and electricity generation. These engines start and run autonomously when placed at air–water interfaces. They generate rotary and piston-like linear motion using specially designed, biologically based artificial muscles responsive to moisture fluctuations. Using these engines, we demonstrate an electricity generator that rests on watermore » while harvesting its evaporation to power a light source, and a miniature car (weighing 0.1 kg) that moves forward as the water in the car evaporates. Evaporation-driven engines may find applications in powering robotic systems, sensors, devices and machinery that function in the natural environment.« less

Influence of Wave Energetics on Nearshore Storms and Adjacent Shoreline Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadman, H. M.; McNinch, J. E.; Hanson, J.

2008-12-01

Large-scale climatic forcings (such as NAO and ENSO) are known to induce fluctuations in regional storm frequency and intensity. Morphology-based studies have traditionally focused on individual storms and their influence on the nearshore coastal wave regime and shoreline response. Few studies have attempted to link long-term observed changes in shoreline position, beach, and nearshore morphology with large-scale climatic forcings that influence regional storm patterns. In order to predict the response of coastlines to future sea level rise and climate change, we need to understand how changes in the frequency of storms affecting nearshore regions (nearshore storms) may influence trends in shoreline position and nearshore morphology. Nearly 30 years of wave data (deep and shallow) collected off of Duck, NC are examined for trends in storm frequency and/or intensity. Changes in shoreline position and shoreface elevation, as observed from monthly beach transects over the same period, are also investigated in light of the observed trends in hydrodynamic forcings. Our preliminary analysis was unable to identify any consistent linear trends (increases or decreases) in frequency or intensity over the ~30-year time period in either the offshore wave heights or the nearshore storm record. These data might suggest that previous observations of recent increases in storm intensity and frequency, speculated to be due to climate change, might be spatially limited. Future analyses will partition the contributions from individual wind sea and swell events in order to better identify long-term trends in wave energetics from the various wave generation regions in the Atlantic. At this location, offshore wave height and the nearshore storm record are dominated by seasonal fluctuations and a strong interdecadal- to decadal periodicity. Previous research in Duck, NC has suggested that changes in shoreline position and shoreface elevations are related both to seasonal trends as well as "storm groupiness". Our analyses support these findings, but also identify interdecadal- to decadal trends in the nearshore morphology. Despite these fluctuations, the overall position of the shoreline and elevation of the shoreface shows little net change over the 30 years investigated. We hypothesize that the interdecadal- to decadal periodicity in the morphology is driven largely by the influences of large-scale climatic forcings on the nearshore wave regime as reflected in the storm record. We also explore the relationship between morphological periodicity, storm and wave height periodicity, and climatic fluctuations.

Interannual lake level fluctuations (1993 1999) in Africa from Topex/Poseidon: connections with ocean atmosphere interactions over the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercier, Franck; Cazenave, Anny; Maheu, Caroline

2002-04-01

Water level fluctuations of continental lakes are related to regional to global scale climate changes. Water level fluctuations reflect variations in evaporation and precipitation over the lake area and its catchment area. Over such inland water bodies, the satellite altimetry technique offers both a world-wide coverage and a satisfying accuracy. We present here results of lake level variations of 12 African lakes based on 7 years of Topex/Poseidon (T/P) altimetry data acquired between 1993 and 1999. Among the 12 African lakes presented in this study, three are reservoirs whose level fluctuations are mainly driven by anthropogenic usage of the water. Either closed or open, the nine remaining lakes are sensitive indicators of the climate evolution over Africa during the 1990s. Seasonal signals of each lake are clearly identified and filtered out to focus on the interannual fluctuations. Clear correlated regional variations are reported among the east African lakes: several lakes exhibit a regular level decrease between 1993 and 1997, probably due to intense droughts. However, the most spectacular feature is an abrupt water level rise occurring in late 1997-early 1998 and affecting most of the lakes located within the Rift Valley. This major anomalous pattern, explained by a large excess rainfall anomaly occurring in late 1997, is quantified in both space and time domains through an EOF analysis of the lake level height time series. The spatial distribution of the leading mode of lake level height correlates with the dominant mode of precipitation computed over the same time span. Nevertheless, similar rainfall anomaly, but with lesser intensity, occurred in late 1994 without any noticeable consequence on lake level. The precipitation anomaly appears related to the equatorial Indian Ocean warming reported during the 1997-1998 ENSO event.

Coupling records of fluvial activity from the last interglacial-glacial cycle with climate forcing using both geochronology and numerical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briant, Rebecca; Mottram, Gareth; Wainwright, John

2010-05-01

River systems are a critical component of the landscape. An understanding of their response to variations in the Earth's climate is vital in light of the expected changes in global climate (e.g. 1.8 to 4.8°C temperature rise) that are forecast to occur over the next c. 100 years. Over the longer term, it becomes increasingly likely that the changes we will see may even be of a magnitude for which the most appropriate analogue we have is the glacial-interglacial scale (c. 10°C temperature change) and other climate changes typical of the Quaternary period (last 2 million years). Therefore it is crucial to apply our understanding of climate-driven changes during the Quaternary to future projections of both climate and landscape change, especially since landscape instability is a key characteristic of the Quaternary. Linking river activity to climate requires both the recognition of potentially climate-driven changes within the fluvial sedimentary record and the linkage of these to external climate records using various geochronological techniques. To this end, this paper firstly presents results from the Welland catchment, Fenland Basin where climatically-driven phases of river activity have been identified using detailed sedimentological analysis and palaeontological environmental reconstruction. Dating of these using radiocarbon and optically-stimulated luminescence dating has shown broad correspondence to external climate fluctuations at a marine isotope substage scale over the last interglacial-glacial cycle (MIS 5d onwards). The precision and accuracy of the two different age techniques varies in different parts of this time period and this will be discussed. Limitations in the precision of these geochronological techniques have prompted the use of a further, complementary to improve understanding of these sequences, i.e. ensemble numerical modeling. The rationale behind this approach is that river response to climate can be traced within the model and validated against the known geological record. If the known geological record can be replicated, then the detailed linkages between climate and river activity shown in the model can be used understand to the relationships between climate change and river activity more clearly. This paper will present the results of three-dimensional cellular automata modeling of the Welland catchment, compare them to the geological record, and draw out what this means for our understanding of earth surface processes.

High-Beta Electromagnetic Turbulence in LAPD Plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, G.; Carter, T. A.; Pueschel, M. J.; Jenko, F.; Told, D.; Terry, P. W.

2015-11-01

The introduction of a new LaB6 cathode plasma source in the Large Plasma Device has enabled the study of pressure-gradient-driven turbulence and transport variations at significantly higher plasma β. Density fluctuations are observed to decrease with increasing β while magnetic fluctuations increase. Furthermore, the perpendicular magnetic fluctuations are seen to saturate while parallel (compressional) magnetic fluctuations increase continuously with β. These observations are compared to linear and nonlinear simulations with the GENE code. The results are consistent with the linear excitation of a Gradient-driven Drift Coupling mode (GDC) which relies on grad-B drift due to parallel magnetic fluctuations and can be driven by density or temperature gradients.

Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield: a case study in Hunan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhu; Shi, Peijun; Zhang, Zhao; Meng, Yongchang; Luan, Yibo; Wang, Jiwei

2017-09-01

Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events on crop yield is of paramount importance to climate change adaptation, resilience, and mitigation. Previous studies lack systematic and explicit assessment of these three fundamental aspects of climate change on crop yield. This research attempts to separate out the impacts on rice yields of climatic trend (linear trend change related to mean value), fluctuations (variability surpassing the "fluctuation threshold" which defined as one standard deviation (1 SD) of the residual between the original data series and the linear trend value for each climatic variable), and extreme events (identified by absolute criterion for each kind of extreme events related to crop yield). The main idea of the research method was to construct climate scenarios combined with crop system simulation model. Comparable climate scenarios were designed to express the impact of each climate change component and, were input to the crop system model (CERES-Rice), which calculated the related simulated yield gap to quantify the percentage impacts of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events. Six Agro-Meteorological Stations (AMS) in Hunan province were selected to study the quantitatively impact of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events involving climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration) on early rice yield during 1981-2012. The results showed that extreme events were found to have the greatest impact on early rice yield (-2.59 to -15.89%). Followed by climatic fluctuations with a range of -2.60 to -4.46%, and then the climatic trend (4.91-2.12%). Furthermore, the influence of climatic trend on early rice yield presented "trade-offs" among various climate variables and AMS. Climatic trend and extreme events associated with air temperature showed larger effects on early rice yield than other climatic variables, particularly for high-temperature events (-2.11 to -12.99%). Finally, the methodology use to separate out the influences of the climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield was proved to be feasible and robust. Designing different climate scenarios and feeding them into a crop system model is a potential way to evaluate the quantitative impact of each climate variable.

Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history

PubMed Central

Zhang, David D.; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F.; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

2007-01-01

Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war–peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism. PMID:18048343

Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history.

PubMed

Zhang, David D; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

2007-12-04

Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism.

GLOBEC (Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics: Northwest Atlantic program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

The specific objective of the meeting was to plan an experiment in the Northwestern Atlantic to study the marine ecosystem and its role, together with that of climate and physical dynamics, in determining fisheries recruitment. The underlying focus of the GLOBEC initiative is to understand the marine ecosystem as it related to marine living resources and to understand how fluctuation in these resources are driven by climate change and exploitation. In this sense the goal is a solid scientific program to provide basic information concerning major fisheries stocks and the environment that sustains them. The plan is to attempt to reach this understanding through a multidisciplinary program that brings to bear new techniques as disparate as numerical fluid dynamic models of ocean circulation, molecular biology and modern acoustic imaging. The effort will also make use of the massive historical data sets on fisheries and the state of the climate in a coordinated manner.

Application of solar max ACRIM data to analyze solar-driven climatic variability on Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffert, M. I.

1986-01-01

Langley, in the late nineteenth century, attempted to measure solar irradiance over an extended period of time in order to detect changes. The problem with this and other early attempts was that ground based measurements are not sufficiently accurate to measure solar irradiance fluctuations, which are on the order of 0.1%. It was not until the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) experiment on the NASA Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) was launched in 1980 that continuous data with precision 0.1% was available.

10Be in late deglacial climate simulated by ECHAM5-HAM - Part 2: Isolating the solar signal from 10Be deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heikkilä, U.; Shi, X.; Phipps, S. J.; Smith, A. M.

2014-04-01

This study investigates the effect of deglacial climate on the deposition of the solar proxy 10Be globally, and at two specific locations, the GRIP site at Summit, Central Greenland, and the Law Dome site in coastal Antarctica. The deglacial climate is represented by three 30 year time slice simulations of 10 000 BP (years before present = 1950 CE), 11 000 and 12 000 BP, compared with a preindustrial control simulation. The model used is the ECHAM5-HAM atmospheric aerosol-climate model, driven with sea-surface temperatures and sea ice cover simulated using the CSIRO Mk3L coupled climate system model. The focus is on isolating the 10Be production signal, driven by solar variability, from the weather- or climate-driven noise in the 10Be deposition flux during different stages of climate. The production signal varies at lower frequencies, dominated by the 11 year solar cycle within the 30 year timescale of these experiments. The climatic noise is of higher frequencies than 11 years during the 30 year period studied. We first apply empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to global 10Be deposition on the annual scale and find that the first principal component, consisting of the spatial pattern of mean 10Be deposition and the temporally varying solar signal, explains 64% of the variability. The following principal components are closely related to those of precipitation. Then, we apply ensemble empirical decomposition (EEMD) analysis to the time series of 10Be deposition at GRIP and at Law Dome, which is an effective method for adaptively decomposing the time series into different frequency components. The low-frequency components and the long-term trend represent production and have reduced noise compared to the entire frequency spectrum of the deposition. The high-frequency components represent climate-driven noise related to the seasonal cycle of e.g. precipitation and are closely connected to high frequencies of precipitation. These results firstly show that the 10Be atmospheric production signal is preserved in the deposition flux to surface even during climates very different from today's both in global data and at two specific locations. Secondly, noise can be effectively reduced from 10Be deposition data by simply applying the EOF analysis in the case of a reasonably large number of available data sets, or by decomposing the individual data sets to filter out high-frequency fluctuations.

Large-scale climatic effects on traditional Hawaiian fishpond aquaculture

PubMed Central

McCoy, Daniel; McManus, Margaret A.; Kotubetey, Keliʻiahonui; Kawelo, Angela Hiʻilei; Young, Charles; D’Andrea, Brandon; Ruttenberg, Kathleen C.

2017-01-01

Aquaculture accounts for almost one-half of global fish consumption. Understanding the regional impact of climate fluctuations on aquaculture production thus is critical for the sustainability of this crucial food resource. The objective of this work was to understand the role of climate fluctuations and climate change in subtropical coastal estuarine environments within the context of aquaculture practices in Heʻeia Fishpond, Oʻahu Island, Hawaiʻi. To the best of our knowledge, this was the first study of climate effects on traditional aquaculture systems in the Hawaiian Islands. Data from adjacent weather stations were analyzed together with in situ water quality instrument deployments spanning a 12-year period (November 2004 –November 2016). We found correlations between two periods with extremely high fish mortality at Heʻeia Fishpond (May and October 2009) and slackening trade winds in the week preceding each mortality event, as well as surface water temperatures elevated 2–3°C higher than the background periods (March-December 2009). We posit that the lack of trade wind-driven surface water mixing enhanced surface heating and stratification of the water column, leading to hypoxic conditions and stress on fish populations, which had limited ability to move within net pen enclosures. Elevated water temperature and interruption of trade winds previously have been linked to the onset of El Niño in Hawaiʻi. Our results provide empirical evidence regarding El Niño effects on the coastal ocean, which can inform resource management efforts about potential impact of climate variation on aquaculture production. Finally, we provide recommendations for reducing the impact of warming events on fishponds, as these events are predicted to increase in magnitude and frequency as a consequence of global warming. PMID:29145446

Large-scale climatic effects on traditional Hawaiian fishpond aquaculture.

PubMed

McCoy, Daniel; McManus, Margaret A; Kotubetey, Keliʻiahonui; Kawelo, Angela Hiʻilei; Young, Charles; D'Andrea, Brandon; Ruttenberg, Kathleen C; Alegado, Rosanna ʻAnolani

2017-01-01

Aquaculture accounts for almost one-half of global fish consumption. Understanding the regional impact of climate fluctuations on aquaculture production thus is critical for the sustainability of this crucial food resource. The objective of this work was to understand the role of climate fluctuations and climate change in subtropical coastal estuarine environments within the context of aquaculture practices in He'eia Fishpond, O'ahu Island, Hawai'i. To the best of our knowledge, this was the first study of climate effects on traditional aquaculture systems in the Hawaiian Islands. Data from adjacent weather stations were analyzed together with in situ water quality instrument deployments spanning a 12-year period (November 2004 -November 2016). We found correlations between two periods with extremely high fish mortality at He'eia Fishpond (May and October 2009) and slackening trade winds in the week preceding each mortality event, as well as surface water temperatures elevated 2-3°C higher than the background periods (March-December 2009). We posit that the lack of trade wind-driven surface water mixing enhanced surface heating and stratification of the water column, leading to hypoxic conditions and stress on fish populations, which had limited ability to move within net pen enclosures. Elevated water temperature and interruption of trade winds previously have been linked to the onset of El Niño in Hawai'i. Our results provide empirical evidence regarding El Niño effects on the coastal ocean, which can inform resource management efforts about potential impact of climate variation on aquaculture production. Finally, we provide recommendations for reducing the impact of warming events on fishponds, as these events are predicted to increase in magnitude and frequency as a consequence of global warming.

Microrefugia and Shifts of Hippophae tibetana (Elaeagnaceae) on the north side of Mt. Qomolangma (Mt. Everest) during the last 25000 years.

PubMed

Xu, Lu; Wang, Hao; La, Qiong; Lu, Fan; Sun, Kun; Fang, Yang; Yang, Mei; Zhong, Yang; Wu, Qianhong; Chen, Jiakuan; Birks, H John B; Zhang, Wenju

2014-01-01

Microrefugia at high altitudes or high latitudes are thought to play an important role in the post-glacial colonization of species. However, how populations in such microrefugia have responded to climate changes in alternating cold glacial and warm interglacial stages remain unclear. Here we present evidence to indicate the Rongbuk Valley of the Mt. Qomolangma (Mt. Everest) area, the highest region on earth, had microrefugia for Hippophae tibetana and discuss how this low shrub was adapted to the extreme climate fluctuations of the last 25,000 years by shifts. By integrating geological, glaciological, meteorological, and genetic information, we found that the Rongbuk Valley was not only a glacial microrefugium but also an interglacial microrefugium for H. tibetana: the former was located on the riverbank below 4800 m above sea level (asl) or lower area and the latter at ∼ 5000 m asl. Our results show that after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), H. tibetana in the valley has undergone upward and downward migrations around ∼ 5000 m driven by climate fluctuations and the population in the glacial microrefugium has suffered extinction or extreme contraction. Moreover, with the rise of temperature in the last four decades, the upper limit of H. tibetana has shifted at least 30 m upward. Combining population history and recent range shift of this species is important in predicting the fate of this endemic species to future climate changes.

Microrefugia and Shifts of Hippophae tibetana (Elaeagnaceae) on the North Side of Mt. Qomolangma (Mt. Everest) during the Last 25000 Years

PubMed Central

Lu, Fan; Sun, Kun; Fang, Yang; Yang, Mei; Zhong, Yang; Wu, Qianhong; Chen, Jiakuan; Birks, H. John B.; Zhang, Wenju

2014-01-01

Microrefugia at high altitudes or high latitudes are thought to play an important role in the post-glacial colonization of species. However, how populations in such microrefugia have responded to climate changes in alternating cold glacial and warm interglacial stages remain unclear. Here we present evidence to indicate the Rongbuk Valley of the Mt. Qomolangma (Mt. Everest) area, the highest region on earth, had microrefugia for Hippophae tibetana and discuss how this low shrub was adapted to the extreme climate fluctuations of the last 25,000 years by shifts. By integrating geological, glaciological, meteorological, and genetic information, we found that the Rongbuk Valley was not only a glacial microrefugium but also an interglacial microrefugium for H. tibetana: the former was located on the riverbank below 4800 m above sea level (asl) or lower area and the latter at ∼5000 m asl. Our results show that after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), H. tibetana in the valley has undergone upward and downward migrations around ∼5000 m driven by climate fluctuations and the population in the glacial microrefugium has suffered extinction or extreme contraction. Moreover, with the rise of temperature in the last four decades, the upper limit of H. tibetana has shifted at least 30 m upward. Combining population history and recent range shift of this species is important in predicting the fate of this endemic species to future climate changes. PMID:24841004

Impacts of abrupt climate changes in the Levant from Last Glacial Dead Sea levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torfstein, Adi; Goldstein, Steven L.; Stein, Mordechai; Enzel, Yehouda

2013-06-01

A new, detailed lake level curve for Lake Lisan (the Last Glacial Dead Sea) reveals a high frequency of abrupt fluctuations during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) compared to the relatively high stand characterizing MIS2, and the significantly lower Holocene lake. The lake level fluctuations reflect the hydrological conditions in the large watershed of the lake, which in turn reflects the hydro-climatic conditions in the central Levant region. The new curve shows that the fluctuations coincide on millennial timescales with temperature variations recorded in Greenland. Four patterns of correlation are observed through the last ice age: (1) maximum lake elevations were reached during MIS2, the coldest interval; (2) abrupt lake level drops to the lowest elevations coincided with the occurrence of Heinrich (H) events; (3) the lake returned to higher-stand conditions along with warming in Greenland that followed H-events; (4) significant lake level fluctuations coincided with virtually every Greenland stadial-interstadial cycle. Over glacial-interglacial time-scales, Northern Hemisphere glacial cooling induces extreme wetness in the Levant, with high lake levels reaching ˜160 m below mean sea level (mbmsl), approximately 240 m above typical Holocene levels of ˜400 mbmsl. These orbital time-scale shifts are driven by expansions of the European ice sheet, which deflect westerly storm tracks southward to the Eastern Mediterranean, resulting in increased sea-air temperature gradients that invoke increased cyclogenesis, and enhanced moisture delivery to the Levant. The millennial-scale lake level drops associated with Greenland stadials are most extreme during Heinrich stadials and reflect abrupt cooling of the Eastern Mediterranean atmosphere and sea-surface, which weaken the cyclogenic rain engine and cause extreme Levant droughts. During the recovery from the effect of Heinrich stadials, the regional climate configuration resumed typical glacial conditions, with enhanced Levant precipitation and a rise in Lake Lisan levels. Similar cyclicity in the transfer of moisture to the Levant affected lake levels during all of the non-Heinrich stadial-interstadial cycles.

Inherited hypoxia: A new challenge for reoligotrophicated lakes under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenny, Jean-Philippe; Arnaud, Fabien; Alric, Benjamin; Dorioz, Jean-Marcel; Sabatier, Pierre; Meybeck, Michel; Perga, Marie-Elodie

2014-12-01

The Anthropocene is characterized by a worldwide spread of hypoxia, among other manifestations, which threatens aquatic ecosystem functions, services, and biodiversity. The primary cause of hypoxia onset in recent decades is human-triggered eutrophication. Global warming has also been demonstrated to contribute to the increase of hypoxic conditions. However, the precise role of both environmental forcings on hypoxia dynamics over the long term remains mainly unknown due to a lack of historical monitoring. In this study, we used an innovative paleolimnological approach on three large European lakes to quantify past hypoxia dynamics and to hierarchies the contributions of climate and nutrients. Even for lake ecosystems that have been well oxygenated over a millennia-long period, and regardless of past climatic fluctuations, a shift to hypoxic conditions occurred in the 1950s in response to an unprecedented rise in total phosphorus concentrations above 10 ± 5 µg P L-1. Following this shift, hypoxia never disappeared despite the fact that environmental policies succeeded in drastically reducing lake phosphorus concentrations. During that period, decadal fluctuations in hypoxic volume were great, ranging between 0.5 and 8% of the total lake volumes. We demonstrate, through statistical modeling, that these fluctuations were essentially driven by climatic factors, such as river discharge and air temperature. In lakes Geneva and Bourget, which are fed by large river systems, fluctuations in hypoxic volume were negatively correlated with river discharge. In contrast, the expansion of hypoxia has been related only to warmer air temperatures at Annecy, which is fed by small river systems. Hence, we outline a theoretical framework assuming that restored lake ecosystems have inherited hypoxia from the eutrophication period and have shifted to a new stable state with new key controls of water and ecosystem quality. We suggest that controlling river discharge may be a complementary strategy for local management of lakes fed by large river systems.

Orbital Noise in the Earth System and Climate Fluctuations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Han-Shou; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Frequency noise in the variations of the Earth's obliquity (tilt) can modulate the insolation signal for climate change. Including this frequency noise effect on the incoming solar radiation, we have applied an energy balance climate model to calculate the climate fluctuations for the past one million years. Model simulation results are in good agreement with the geologically observed paleoclimate data. We conclude that orbital noise in the Earth system may be the major cause of the climate fluctuation cycles.

The Sahel Region of West Africa: Examples of Climate Analyses Motivated By Drought Management Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndiaye, O.; Ward, M. N.; Siebert, A. B.

2011-12-01

The Sahel is one of the most drought-prone regions in the world. This paper focuses on climate sources of drought, and some new analyses mostly driven by users needing climate information to help in drought management strategies. The Sahel region of West Africa is a transition zone between equatorial climate and vegetation to the south, and desert to the north. The climatology of the region is dominated by dry conditions for most of the year, with a single peak in rainfall during boreal summer. The seasonal rainfall total contains both interannual variability and substantial decadal to multidecadal variability (MDV). This brings climate analysis and drought management challenges across this range of timescales. The decline in rainfall from the wet decades of the 1950s and 60s to the dry decades of the 1970s and 80s has been well documented. In recent years, a moderate recovery has emerged, with seasonal totals in the period 1994-2010 significantly higher than the average rainfall 1970-1993. These MDV rainfall fluctuations have expression in large-scale sea-surface temperature fluctuations in all ocean basins, placing the changes in drought frequency within broader ocean-atmosphere climate fluctuation. We have evaluated the changing character of low seasonal rainfall total event frequencies in the Sahel region 1950-2010, highlighting the role of changes in the mean, variance and distribution shape of seasonal rainfall totals as the climate has shifted through the three observed phases. We also consider the extent to which updating climate normals in real-time can damp the bias in expected event frequency, an important issue for the feasibility of index insurance as a drought management tool in the presence of a changing climate. On the interannual timescale, a key factor long discussed for agriculture is the character of rainfall onset. An extended dry spell often occurs early in the rainy season before the crop is fully established, and this often leads to crop failure. This can be viewed as a special case of agricultural drought. Therefore, improving climate information around the time of planting can play a key role in agricultural risk management. Rainfall onset indices have been calculated for stations across Senegal. The problem is climatically challenging because the physical processes that impact rainfall onset appear to span aspects normally studied separately: weather system character, propagating intraseasonal features, and large-scale sea-surface temperature influence. We present aspects of all these, and ideas on how to combine them into seamless information to support agriculture.

Detecting and Attributing the Effects of Climate Change on the Distributions of Snake Species Over the Past 50 Years.

PubMed

Wu, Jianguo

2016-01-01

It is unclear whether the distributions of snakes have changed in association with climate change over the past years. We detected the distribution changes of snakes over the past 50 years and determined whether the changes could be attributed to recent climate change in China. Long-term records of the distribution of nine snake species in China, grey relationship analysis, fuzzy sets classification techniques, the consistency index, and attributed methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the distributions of snake species have changed in multiple directions, primarily shifting northwards, and most of the changes were related to the thermal index. Driven by climatic factors over the past 50 years, the distribution boundary and distribution centers of some species changed with the fluctuations. The observed and predicted changes in distribution were highly consistent for some snake species. The changes in the northern limits of distributions of nearly half of the species, as well as the southern and eastern limits, and the distribution centers of some snake species can be attributed to climate change.

The distributions of Chinese yak breeds in response to climate change over the past 50 years.

PubMed

Wu, Jianguo

2016-07-01

The effects of prior climate change on yak breed distributions are uncertain. Here, we measured changes in the distributions of 12 yak breeds over the past 50 years in China and examined whether the changes could be attributed to climate change. Long-term records of yak breed distribution, grey relational analysis, fuzzy sets classification techniques and attribution methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the distributions of several yak breeds have changed in multiple directions, mainly shifting northward or westward, and most of these changes are related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past years, the suitable range and the distribution centers of certain yak breeds have changed with fluctuation and have mainly shifted northward, eastward or southward. The consistency of observed versus predicted changes in distribution boundaries or distribution centers is higher for certain yak breeds. Changes in the eastern distribution boundary of two yak breeds over the past 50 years can be attributed to climate change. © 2015 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

Climatically driven biogeographic provinces of Late Triassic tropical Pangea

PubMed Central

Whiteside, Jessica H.; Grogan, Danielle S.; Olsen, Paul E.; Kent, Dennis V.

2011-01-01

Although continents were coalesced into the single landmass Pangea, Late Triassic terrestrial tetrapod assemblages are surprisingly provincial. In eastern North America, we show that assemblages dominated by traversodont cynodonts are restricted to a humid 6° equatorial swath that persisted for over 20 million years characterized by “semiprecessional” (approximately 10,000-y) climatic fluctuations reflected in stable carbon isotopes and sedimentary facies in lacustrine strata. More arid regions from 5–20°N preserve procolophonid-dominated faunal assemblages associated with a much stronger expression of approximately 20,000-y climatic cycles. In the absence of geographic barriers, we hypothesize that these variations in the climatic expression of astronomical forcing produced latitudinal climatic zones that sorted terrestrial vertebrate taxa, perhaps by excretory physiology, into distinct biogeographic provinces tracking latitude, not geographic position, as the proto-North American plate translated northward. Although the early Mesozoic is usually assumed to be characterized by globally distributed land animal communities due to of a lack of geographic barriers, strong provinciality was actually the norm, and nearly global communities were present only after times of massive ecological disruptions. PMID:21571639

Climatically driven biogeographic provinces of Late Triassic tropical Pangea.

PubMed

Whiteside, Jessica H; Grogan, Danielle S; Olsen, Paul E; Kent, Dennis V

2011-05-31

Although continents were coalesced into the single landmass Pangea, Late Triassic terrestrial tetrapod assemblages are surprisingly provincial. In eastern North America, we show that assemblages dominated by traversodont cynodonts are restricted to a humid 6° equatorial swath that persisted for over 20 million years characterized by "semiprecessional" (approximately 10,000-y) climatic fluctuations reflected in stable carbon isotopes and sedimentary facies in lacustrine strata. More arid regions from 5-20 °N preserve procolophonid-dominated faunal assemblages associated with a much stronger expression of approximately 20,000-y climatic cycles. In the absence of geographic barriers, we hypothesize that these variations in the climatic expression of astronomical forcing produced latitudinal climatic zones that sorted terrestrial vertebrate taxa, perhaps by excretory physiology, into distinct biogeographic provinces tracking latitude, not geographic position, as the proto-North American plate translated northward. Although the early Mesozoic is usually assumed to be characterized by globally distributed land animal communities due to of a lack of geographic barriers, strong provinciality was actually the norm, and nearly global communities were present only after times of massive ecological disruptions.

Paleoclimate and Amerindians: Evidence from stable isotopes and atmospheric circulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovvorn, M.B.; Frison, G.C.; Tieszen, L.L.

2001-01-01

Two Amerindian demographic shifts are attributed to climate change in the northwest plains of North America: at ???11,000 calendar years before present (yr BP), Amerindian culture apparently split into foothills-mountains vs. plains biomes; and from 8,000-5,000 yr BP, scarce archaeological sites on the open plains suggest emigration during xeric "Altithermal" conditions. We reconstructed paleoclimates from stable isotopes in prehistoric bison bone and relations between weather and fractions of C4 plants in forage. Further, we developed a climate-change model that synthesized stable isotope, existing qualitative evidence (e.g., palynological, erosional), and global climate mechanisms affecting this midlatitude region. Our isotope data indicate significant warming from ???12,400 to 11,900 yr BP, supporting climate-driven cultural separation. However, isotope evidence of apparently wet, warm conditions at 7,300 yr BP refutes emigration to avoid xeric conditions. Scarcity of archaeological sites is best explained by rapid climate fluctuations after catastrophic draining of the Laurentide Lakes, which disrupted North Atlantic Deep Water production and subsequently altered monsoonal inputs to the open plains.

North Atlantic forcing of moisture delivery to Europe throughout the Holocene

PubMed Central

Smith, Andrew C.; Wynn, Peter M.; Barker, Philip A.; Leng, Melanie J.; Noble, Stephen R.; Tych, Wlodek

2016-01-01

Century-to-millennial scale fluctuations in precipitation and temperature are an established feature of European Holocene climates. Changes in moisture delivery are driven by complex interactions between ocean moisture sources and atmospheric circulation modes, making it difficult to resolve the drivers behind millennial scale variability in European precipitation. Here, we present two overlapping decadal resolution speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from a cave on the Atlantic coastline of northern Iberia, covering the period 12.1–0 ka. Speleothem δ18O reveals nine quasi-cyclical events of relatively wet-to-dry climatic conditions during the Holocene. Dynamic Harmonic Regression modelling indicates that changes in precipitation occurred with a ~1500 year frequency during the late Holocene and at a shorter length during the early Holocene. The timing of these cycles coincides with changes in North Atlantic Ocean conditions, indicating a connectivity between ocean conditions and Holocene moisture delivery. Early Holocene climate is potentially dominated by freshwater outburst events, whilst ~1500 year cycles in the late Holocene are more likely driven by changes internal to the ocean system. This is the first continental record of its type that clearly demonstrates millennial scale connectivity between the pulse of the ocean and precipitation over Europe through the entirety of the Holocene. PMID:27109216

Lake-level variability and water availability in the Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilcox, Douglas A.; Thompson, Todd A.; Booth, Robert K.; Nicholas, J.R.

2007-01-01

In this report, we present recorded and reconstructed (pre-historical) changes in water levels in the Great Lakes, relate them to climate changes of the past, and highlight major water-availability implications for storage, coastal ecosystems, and human activities. 'Water availability,' as conceptualized herein, includes a recognition that water must be available for human and natural uses, but the balancing of how much should be set aside for which use is not discussed. The Great Lakes Basin covers a large area of North America. The lakes capture and store great volumes of water that are critical in maintaining human activities and natural ecosystems. Water enters the lakes mostly in the form of precipitation and streamflow. Although flow through the connecting channels is a primary output from the lakes, evaporation is also a major output. Water levels in the lakes vary naturally on timescales that range from hours to millennia; storage of water in the lakes changes at the seasonal to millennial scales in response to lake-level changes. Short-term changes result from storm surges and seiches and do not affect storage. Seasonal changes are driven by differences in net basin supply during the year related to snowmelt, precipitation, and evaporation. Annual to millennial changes are driven by subtle to major climatic changes affecting both precipitation (and resulting streamflow) and evaporation. Rebounding of the Earth's surface in response to loss of the weight of melted glaciers has differentially affected water levels. Rebound rates have not been uniform across the basin, causing the hydrologic outlet of each lake to rise in elevation more rapidly than some parts of the coastlines. The result is a long-term change in lake level with respect to shoreline features that differs from site to site. The reconstructed water-level history of Lake Michigan-Huron over the past 4,700 years shows three major high phases from 2,300 to 3,300, 1,100 to 2,000, and 0 to 800 years ago. Within that record is a quasi-periodic rise and fall of about 160 ? 40 years in duration and a shorter fluctuation of 32 ? 6 years that is superimposed on the 160-year fluctuation. Recorded lake-level history from 1860 to the present falls within the longer-term pattern and appears to be a single 160-year quasi-periodic fluctuation. Independent investigations of past climate change in the basin over the long-term period of record confirm that most of these changes in lake level were responses to climatically driven changes in water balance, including lake-level highstands commonly associated with cooler climatic conditions and lows with warm climate periods. The mechanisms underlying these large hydroclimatic anomalies are not clear, but they may be related to internal dynamics of the ocean-atmosphere system or dynamical responses of the ocean-atmosphere system to variability in solar radiation or volcanic activity. The large capacities of the Great Lakes allow them to store great volumes of water. As calculated at chart datum, Lake Superior stores more water (2,900 mi3) than all the other lakes combined (2,539 mi3). Lake Michigan's storage is 1,180 mi3; Lake Huron's, 850 mi3; Lake Ontario's, 393 mi3; and Lake Erie's, 116 mi3. Seasonal lake-level changes alter storage by as much as 6 mi3 in Lake Superior and as little as 2.1 mi3 in Lake Erie. The extreme high and low lake levels measured in recorded lake-level history have altered storage by as much as 31 mi3 in Lake Michigan-Huron and as little as 9 mi3 in Lake Ontario. Diversions of water into and out of the lakes are very small compared to the total volume of water stored in the lakes. The water level of Lake Superior has been regulated since about 1914 and levels of Lake Ontario since about 1960. The range of Lake Superior water-level fluctuations and storage has not been altered greatly by regulation. However, fluctuations on Lake Ontario have been reduced from 6.6 ft preregulation

Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

PubMed

Fox, Naomi J; White, Piran C L; McClean, Colin J; Marion, Glenn; Evans, Andy; Hutchings, Michael R

2011-01-10

Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke) is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

The Plio-Pleistocene Evolution of the Indian Ocean Monsoonal System: Evidence from the Arabian Sea and East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, K. E.; Maslin, M. A.; Mackay, A. W.; Leng, M. J.; Kingston, J.; Deino, A.

2011-12-01

It is important to identify the teleconnections between high latitude forcing and tropical monsoonal circulation in order to understand climate change in East Africa during the Plio-Pleistocene. Here we present a record of aeolian dust transport to the Arabian Sea between approximately 2.9 and 2.3 million years ago (Ma), constructed from the high-resolution XRF scanning of sediment cores from ODP Sites 721 and 722. Variations in the delivery of aeolian dust to the Arabian Sea, reflected in normalised flux of titanium, show that monsoonal circulation prior to 2.6 Ma, and after 2.5 Ma, was highly variable and primarily driven by orbitally-forced changes in tropical summer insolation, strongly modulated by the 400,000 year cycle of orbital eccentricity. This is confirmed by the presence of lakes in the East African Rift Valley during key eccentricity maxima. The dust record is coupled with the analysis of a well-dated series of diatomite units from the Baringo-Bogoria Basin which document the rhythmic cycling of large, precessionally-driven freshwater lakes which periodically occupied the Central Kenyan Rift Valley between 2.7 and 2.58 Ma. Analysis of one of these lake sequences using stable oxygen isotope measurements of diatom silica, combined with the XRF analysis of whole-sample geochemistry, reveals that the deep lake phase was characterised by fluctuations in rainfall and lake depth over cycles lasting, on average, 1,400 years. The presence of these millennial-scale fluctuations is confirmed by evidence of abrupt climate cycles in the oceanic dust record from the Arabian Sea.

Rapid climate fluctuations over the past millennium: evidence from a lacustrine record of Basomtso Lake, southeastern Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Li, Kai; Liu, Xingqi; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Wang, Yongbo

2016-01-01

Abrupt climate changes and fluctuations over short time scales are superimposed on long-term climate changes. Understanding rapid climate fluctuations at the decadal time scale over the past millennium will enhance our understanding of patterns of climate variability and aid in forecasting climate changes in the future. In this study, climate changes on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau over the past millennium were determined from a 4.82-m-long sediment core from Basomtso Lake. At the centennial time scale, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Little Ice Age (LIA) and Current Warm Period (CWP) are distinct in the Basomtso region. Rapid climate fluctuations inferred from five episodes with higher sediment input and likely warmer conditions, as well as seven episodes with lower sediment input and likely colder conditions, were well preserved in our record. These episodes with higher and lower sediment input are characterized by abrupt climate changes and short time durations. Spectral analysis indicates that the climate variations at the centennial scale on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau are influenced by solar activity during the past millennium. PMID:27091591

Beyond Tree Throw: Wind, Water, Rock and the Mechanics of Tree-Driven Bedrock Physical Weathering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, J. A.; Anderson, R. S.; Dawson, T. E.; Dietrich, W. E.; Minear, J. T.

2017-12-01

Tree throw is often invoked as the dominant process in converting bedrock to soil and thus helping to build the Critical Zone (CZ). In addition, observations of tree roots lifting sidewalk slabs, occupying cracks, and prying slabs of rock from cliff faces have led to a general belief in the power of plant growth forces. These common observations have led to conceptual models with trees at the center of the soil genesis process. This is despite the observation that tree throw is rare in many forested settings, and a dearth of field measurements that quantify the magnitude of growth forces. While few trees blow down, every tree grows roots, inserting many tens of percent of its mass below ground. Yet we lack data quantifying the role of trees in both damaging bedrock and detaching it (and thus producing soil). By combing force measurements at the tree-bedrock interface with precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, and wind-driven tree sway data we quantified the magnitude and frequency of tree-driven soil-production mechanisms from two contrasting climatic and lithologic regimes (Boulder and Eel Creek CZ Observatories). Preliminary data suggests that in settings with relatively thin soils, trees can damage and detach rock due to diurnal fluctuations, wind response and rainfall events. Surprisingly, our data suggests that forces from roots and trunks growing against bedrock are insufficient to pry rock apart or damage bedrock although much more work is needed in this area. The frequency, magnitude and style of wind-driven tree forces at the bedrock interface varies considerably from one to another species. This suggests that tree properties such as mass, elasticity, stiffness and branch structure determine whether trees respond to gusts big or small, move at the same frequency as large wind gusts, or are able to self-dampen near-ground sway response to extended wind forces. Our measurements of precipitation-driven and daily fluctuations in root pressures exerted on bedrock suggest that these fluctuations may impart a cyclic stress fatigue that over the lifetime of a tree could considerably weaken the enfolding rock (104 to 106 days depending on the species). Combined, our results suggest that wind-driven root torque and water uptake may be the primary mechanisms driving bedrock erosion and soil production in thin soil settings.

Multifarious anchovy and sardine regimes in the Humboldt Current System during the last 150 years.

PubMed

Salvatteci, Renato; Field, David; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Baumgartner, Tim; Ferreira, Vicente; Ortlieb, Luc; Sifeddine, Abdel; Grados, Daniel; Bertrand, Arnaud

2018-03-01

The Humboldt Current System (HCS) has the highest production of forage fish in the world, although it is highly variable and the future of the primary component, anchovy, is uncertain in the context of global warming. Paradigms based on late 20th century observations suggest that large-scale forcing controls decadal-scale fluctuations of anchovy and sardine across different boundary currents of the Pacific. We develop records of anchovy and sardine fluctuations since 1860 AD using fish scales from multiple sites containing laminated sediments and compare them with Pacific basin-scale and regional indices of ocean climate variability. Our records reveal two main anchovy and sardine phases with a timescale that is not consistent with previously proposed periodicities. Rather, the regime shifts in the HCS are related to 3D habitat changes driven by changes in upwelling intensity from both regional and large-scale forcing. Moreover, we show that a long-term increase in coastal upwelling translates via a bottom-up mechanism to top predators suggesting that the warming climate, at least up to the start of the 21st century, was favorable for fishery productivity in the HCS. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Natural selection and the predictability of evolution in Timema stick insects.

PubMed

Nosil, Patrik; Villoutreix, Romain; de Carvalho, Clarissa F; Farkas, Timothy E; Soria-Carrasco, Víctor; Feder, Jeffrey L; Crespi, Bernard J; Gompert, Zach

2018-02-16

Predicting evolution remains difficult. We studied the evolution of cryptic body coloration and pattern in a stick insect using 25 years of field data, experiments, and genomics. We found that evolution is more difficult to predict when it involves a balance between multiple selective factors and uncertainty in environmental conditions than when it involves feedback loops that cause consistent back-and-forth fluctuations. Specifically, changes in color-morph frequencies are modestly predictable through time ( r 2 = 0.14) and driven by complex selective regimes and yearly fluctuations in climate. In contrast, temporal changes in pattern-morph frequencies are highly predictable due to negative frequency-dependent selection ( r 2 = 0.86). For both traits, however, natural selection drives evolution around a dynamic equilibrium, providing some predictability to the process. Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Critical Climate-Sensitive and Important Grain-Producing Regions: Grain Production/Yield Variations Due to Climate Fluctuations. Volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welker, J. E.

2004-01-01

Ideally, the Crop Country Inventory, CCI, is a methodology for the pre-harvest prediction of large variations in a country s crop production. This is accomplished by monitoring the historical climatic fluctuations, especially during the crop calendar period, in a climate sensitive large crop production region or sub-country, rather than the entire country. The argument can be made that the climatic fluctuations in the climatic sensitive region are responsible for the major annual crop country variations and that the remainder of the country, without major climatic fluctuations for a given year, can be assumed to be a steady-state crop producer. The principal data set that has been used is the Global Climate Mode (GCM) data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), taken over the last half century. As a test of its accuracy, GCM data can and has been correlated with the actual meteorological station data at the station site.

Climate-driven sediment aggradation and incision since the late Pleistocene in the NW Himalaya, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, Saptarshi; Thiede, Rasmus C.; Schildgen, Taylor F.; Wittmann, Hella; Bookhagen, Bodo; Scherler, Dirk; Jain, Vikrant; Strecker, Manfred R.

2016-09-01

Deciphering the response of sediment routing systems to climatic forcing is fundamental for understanding the impacts of climate change on landscape evolution. In the Kangra Basin (northwest Sub-Himalaya, India), upper Pleistocene to Holocene alluvial fills and fluvial terraces record periodic fluctuations of sediment supply and transport capacity on timescales of 103 to 105 yr. To evaluate the potential influence of climate change on these fluctuations, we compare the timing of aggradation and incision phases recorded within remnant alluvial fans and terraces with climate archives. New surface-exposure dating of six terrace levels with in-situ cosmogenic 10Be indicates the onset of incision phases. Two terrace surfaces from the highest level (T1) sculpted into the oldest preserved alluvial fan (AF1) date back to 53.4 ± 3.2 ka and 43.0 ± 2.7 ka (1σ). T2 surfaces sculpted into the remnants of AF1 have exposure ages of 18.6 ± 1.2 ka and 15.3 ± 0.9 ka, while terraces sculpted into the upper Pleistocene-Holocene fan (AF2) provide ages of 9.3 ± 0.4 ka (T3), 7.1 ± 0.4 ka (T4), 5.2 ± 0.4 ka (T5) and 3.6 ± 0.2 ka (T6). Together with previously published OSL ages yielding the timing of aggradation, we find a correlation between variations in sediment transport with oxygen-isotope records from regions affected by the Indian Summer Monsoon. During periods of increased monsoon intensity and post-Last Glacial Maximum glacial retreat, aggradation occurred in the Kangra Basin, likely due to high sediment flux, whereas periods of weakened monsoon intensity or lower sediment supply coincide with incision.

Modeling the epidemiological history of plague in Central Asia: Palaeoclimatic forcing on a disease system over the past millennium

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Human cases of plague (Yersinia pestis) infection originate, ultimately, in the bacterium's wildlife host populations. The epidemiological dynamics of the wildlife reservoir therefore determine the abundance, distribution and evolution of the pathogen, which in turn shape the frequency, distribution and virulence of human cases. Earlier studies have shown clear evidence of climatic forcing on contemporary plague abundance in rodents and humans. Results We find that high-resolution palaeoclimatic indices correlate with plague prevalence and population density in a major plague host species, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus), over 1949-1995. Climate-driven models trained on these data predict independent data on human plague cases in early 20th-century Kazakhstan from 1904-1948, suggesting a consistent impact of climate on large-scale wildlife reservoir dynamics influencing human epidemics. Extending the models further back in time, we also find correspondence between their predictions and qualitative records of plague epidemics over the past 1500 years. Conclusions Central Asian climate fluctuations appear to have had significant influences on regional human plague frequency in the first part of the 20th century, and probably over the past 1500 years. This first attempt at ecoepidemiological reconstruction of historical disease activity may shed some light on how long-term plague epidemiology interacts with human activity. As plague activity in Central Asia seems to have followed climate fluctuations over the past centuries, we may expect global warming to have an impact upon future plague epidemiology, probably sustaining or increasing plague activity in the region, at least in the rodent reservoirs, in the coming decades. See commentary: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/8/108 PMID:20799946

Modeling the epidemiological history of plague in Central Asia: palaeoclimatic forcing on a disease system over the past millennium.

PubMed

Kausrud, Kyrre Linné; Begon, Mike; Ari, Tamara Ben; Viljugrein, Hildegunn; Esper, Jan; Büntgen, Ulf; Leirs, Herwig; Junge, Claudia; Yang, Bao; Yang, Meixue; Xu, Lei; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2010-08-27

Human cases of plague (Yersinia pestis) infection originate, ultimately, in the bacterium's wildlife host populations. The epidemiological dynamics of the wildlife reservoir therefore determine the abundance, distribution and evolution of the pathogen, which in turn shape the frequency, distribution and virulence of human cases. Earlier studies have shown clear evidence of climatic forcing on contemporary plague abundance in rodents and humans. We find that high-resolution palaeoclimatic indices correlate with plague prevalence and population density in a major plague host species, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus), over 1949-1995. Climate-driven models trained on these data predict independent data on human plague cases in early 20th-century Kazakhstan from 1904-1948, suggesting a consistent impact of climate on large-scale wildlife reservoir dynamics influencing human epidemics. Extending the models further back in time, we also find correspondence between their predictions and qualitative records of plague epidemics over the past 1500 years. Central Asian climate fluctuations appear to have had significant influences on regional human plague frequency in the first part of the 20th century, and probably over the past 1500 years. This first attempt at ecoepidemiological reconstruction of historical disease activity may shed some light on how long-term plague epidemiology interacts with human activity. As plague activity in Central Asia seems to have followed climate fluctuations over the past centuries, we may expect global warming to have an impact upon future plague epidemiology, probably sustaining or increasing plague activity in the region, at least in the rodent reservoirs, in the coming decades.See commentary: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/8/108.

Is the number and size of scales in Liolaemus lizards driven by climate?

PubMed

José Tulli, María; Cruz, Félix B

2018-05-03

Ectothermic vertebrates are sensitive to thermal fluctuations in the environments where they occur. To buffer these fluctuations, ectotherms use different strategies, including the integument, which is a barrier that minimizes temperature exchange between the inner body and the surrounding air. In lizards, this barrier is constituted by keratinized scales of variable size, shape and texture, and its main function is protection, water loss avoidance and thermoregulation. The size of scales in lizards has been proposed to vary in relation to climatic gradients; however, it has also been observed that in some groups of Iguanian lizards could be related to phylogeny. Thus, here, we studied the area and number of scales (dorsal and ventral) of 61 species of Liolaemus lizards distributed in a broad latitudinal and altitudinal gradient to determine the nature of the variation of the scales with climate, and found that the number and size of scales are related to climatic variables, such as temperature and geographical variables as altitude. The evolutionary process that better explained how these morphological variables evolved was the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model. The number of scales seemed to be related to common ancestry, whereas dorsal and ventral scale areas seemed to vary as a consequence of ecological traits. In fact, the ventral area is less exposed to climate conditions such as ultraviolet radiation or wind and is thus under less pressure to change in response to alterations in external conditions. It is possible that scale ornamentation such as keels and granulosity may bring some more information in this regard. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Global MHD simulations driven by idealized Alfvenic fluctuations in the solar wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claudepierre, S. G.

2017-12-01

High speed solar wind streams (HSSs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) often lead to MeV electron flux enhancements the Earth's outer radiation belt. The relevant physical processes responsible for these enhancements are not entirely understood. We investigate the potential role that solar wind Alfvenic fluctuations, intrinsic structures embedded in the HSS/CIRs, play in radiation belt dynamics. In particular, we explore the hypothesis that magnetospheric ultra-low frequency (ULF) pulsations driven by interplanetary magnetic field fluctuations are the intermediary mechanism responsible for the pronounced effect that HSS/CIRs have on the outer electron radiation belt. We examine these effects using global, three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations driven by idealized interplanetary Alfvenic fluctuations, both monochromatic and broadband noise (Kolmogorov turbulence).

Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

2008-01-01

Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood.We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future.Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5–12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants.Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect.Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response experiments indicated that variation in germination has the same potential as the seeds produced per germinant to drive variation in population growth rates, but only the former was clearly related to rainfall.Synthesis. Our work suggests that future changes in the timing and temperatures associated with the first major rains, acting through germination, may more strongly affect population persistence than changes in season-long rainfall.

Current fluctuations in periodically driven systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barato, Andre C.; Chetrite, Raphael

2018-05-01

Small nonequelibrium systems driven by an external periodic protocol can be described by Markov processes with time-periodic transition rates. In general, current fluctuations in such small systems are large and may play a crucial role. We develop a theoretical formalism to evaluate the rate of such large deviations in periodically driven systems. We show that the scaled cumulant generating function that characterizes current fluctuations is given by a maximal Floquet exponent. Comparing deterministic protocols with stochastic protocols, we show that, with respect to large deviations, systems driven by a stochastic protocol with an infinitely large number of jumps are equivalent to systems driven by deterministic protocols. Our results are illustrated with three case studies: a two-state model for a heat engine, a three-state model for a molecular pump, and a biased random walk with a time-periodic affinity.

Quantifying the impacts of climatic trend and fluctuation on crop yields in northern China.

PubMed

Qiao, Jianmin; Yu, Deyong; Liu, Yupeng

2017-10-01

Climate change plays a critical role in crop yield variations, which has attracted a great deal of concern worldwide. However, the mechanisms of how climatic trend and fluctuations affect crop yields are not well understood and need to be further investigated. Thus, using the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model, we simulated the yields of major crops (i.e., wheat, maize, and rice) and evaluated the impacts of climatic factors on crop yields in the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone (APTZ) of northern China between 1980 and 2010. The partial least squares regression model was used to assess the contribution rates of climatic factors (i.e., precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), minimum temperature (T min ), maximum temperature (T max )) to the variation of crop yields. The Breaks for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) model was adopted to decompose the climate factors into trend and fluctuation components, and the relative contributions of climate trend and fluctuation were then evaluated. The results indicated that the contributions of climatic factors to yield variations of wheat, maize, and rice were 31.7, 37.7, and 23.1%, respectively. That is, climate change had larger impacts on maize than wheat and rice. More cultivated areas were significantly and positively correlated with precipitation than with other climatic factors due to the limited precipitation in the APTZ. Also, climatic trend component had positive impacts on crop yields in the whole region, whereas the climate fluctuation was associated mainly with the areas where the crop yields decreased. This study helps improve our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change impacts on crop yields, and provides useful scientific information for designing regional-scale strategies of adaptation to climate change.

The Diversity of Cloud Responses to Twentieth Century Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvers, Levi G.; Paynter, David; Zhao, Ming

2018-01-01

Low-level clouds are shown to be the conduit between the observed sea surface temperatures (SST) and large decadal fluctuations of the top of the atmosphere radiative imbalance. The influence of low-level clouds on the climate feedback is shown for global mean time series as well as particular geographic regions. The changes of clouds are found to be important for a midcentury period of high sensitivity and a late century period of low sensitivity. These conclusions are drawn from analysis of amip-piForcing simulations using three atmospheric general circulation models (AM2.1, AM3, and AM4.0). All three models confirm the importance of the relationship between the global climate sensitivity and the eastern Pacific trends of SST and low-level clouds. However, this work argues that the variability of the climate feedback parameter is not driven by stratocumulus-dominated regions in the eastern ocean basins, but rather by the cloudy response in the rest of the tropics.

Role of magnetic fluctuations in mode selection of magnetically driven instabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dan, Jia-Kun; Ren, Xiao-Dong; Huang, Xian-Bin; Ouyang, Kai; Chen, Guang-Hua

2014-12-01

The influences of magnetic fluctuations on quasiperiodic structure formation and fundamental wavelength selection of the instability have been studied using two 25-μm-diameter tungsten wires on a 100 ns rise time, 220 kA pulsed power facility. Two different load configurations were adopted to make end surfaces of electrodes approximately satisfy reflecting and absorbing boundary conditions, respectively. The experimental results that the fundamental wavelength in the case of absorbing boundary condition is about one half of that in the case of reflecting boundary condition have demonstrated that magnetic fluctuations appear to play a key role in mode selection of magnetically driven instabilities. The dominant wavelength should be proportional to magnetic field and inversely proportional to square root of mass density, provided that the magnetosonic wave propagating perpendicular to magnetic fields provides a leading candidate for magnetic fluctuations. Therefore, magnetic fluctuation is one of the three key perturbations, along with surface contaminants and surface roughness, that seeds magnetically driven instabilities.

Carboniferous climate teleconnections archived in coupled bioapatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records from the epicontinental Donets Basin, Ukraine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montañez, Isabel P.; Osleger, Dillon J.; Chen, Jitao; Wortham, Barbara E.; Stamm, Robert G.; Nemyrovska, Tamara I.; Griffin, Julie M.; Poletaev, Vladislav I.; Wardlaw, Bruce R.

2018-06-01

Reconstructions of paleo-seawater chemistry are largely inferred from biogenic records of epicontinental seas. Recent studies provide considerable evidence for large-scale spatial and temporal variability in the environmental dynamics of these semi-restricted seas that leads to the decoupling of epicontinental isotopic records from those of the open ocean. We present conodont apatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records spanning 24 Myr of the late Mississippian through Pennsylvanian derived from the U-Pb calibrated cyclothemic succession of the Donets Basin, eastern Ukraine. On a 2 to 6 Myr-scale, systematic fluctuations in bioapatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr broadly follow major shifts in the Donets onlap-offlap history and inferred regional climate, but are distinct from contemporaneous more open-water δ18OPO4 and global seawater Sr isotope trends. A -1 to -6‰ offset in Donets δ18OPO4 values from those of more open-water conodonts and greater temporal variability in δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records are interpreted to primarily record climatically driven changes in local environmental processes in the Donets sea. Systematic isotopic shifts associated with Myr-scale sea-level fluctuations, however, indicate an extrabasinal driver. We propose a mechanistic link to glacioeustasy through a teleconnection between high-latitude ice changes and atmospheric pCO2 and regional monsoonal circulation in the Donets region. Inferred large-magnitude changes in Donets seawater salinity and temperature, not archived in the more open-water or global contemporaneous records, indicate a modification of the global climate signal in the epicontinental sea through amplification or dampening of the climate signal by local and regional environmental processes. This finding of global climate change filtered through local processes has implications for the use of conodont δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr values as proxies of paleo-seawater composition, mean temperature, and glacioeustasy.

Current spring warming as a driver of selection on reproductive timing in a wild passerine.

PubMed

Marrot, Pascal; Charmantier, Anne; Blondel, Jacques; Garant, Dany

2018-05-01

Evolutionary adaptation as a response to climate change is expected for fitness-related traits affected by climate and exhibiting genetic variance. Although the relationship between warmer spring temperature and earlier timing of reproduction is well documented, quantifications and predictions of the impact of global warming on natural selection acting on phenology in wild populations remain rare. If global warming affects fitness in a similar way across individuals within a population, or if fitness consequences are independent of phenotypic variation in key-adaptive traits, then no evolutionary response is expected for these traits. Here, we quantified the selection pressures acting on laying date during a 24-year monitoring of blue tits in southern Mediterranean France, a hot spot of climate warming. We explored the temporal fluctuation in annual selection gradients and we determined its temperature-related drivers. We first investigated the month-specific warming since 1970 in our study site and tested its influence on selection pressures, using a model averaging approach. Then, we quantified the selection strength associated with temperature anomalies experienced by the blue tit population. We found that natural selection acting on laying date significantly fluctuated both in magnitude and in sign across years. After identifying a significant warming in spring and summer, we showed that warmer daily maximum temperatures in April were significantly associated with stronger selection pressures for reproductive timing. Our results indicated an increase in the strength of selection by 46% for every +1°C anomaly. Our results confirm the general assumption that recent climate change translates into strong selection favouring earlier breeders in passerine birds. Our findings also suggest that differences in fitness among individuals varying in their breeding phenology increase with climate warming. Such climate-driven influence on the strength of directional selection acting on laying date could favour an adaptive response in this trait, since it is heritable. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society.

Carboniferous climate teleconnections archived in coupled bioapatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records from the epicontinental Donets Basin, Ukraine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Montanez, Isabel P.; Osleger, Dillon J.; Chen, J.-H.; Wortham, Barbara E.; Stamm, Robert G.; Nemyrovska, Tamara I.; Griffin, Julie M.; Poletaev, Vladislav I.; Wardlaw, Bruce R.

2018-01-01

Reconstructions of paleo-seawater chemistry are largely inferred from biogenic records of epicontinental seas. Recent studies provide considerable evidence for large-scale spatial and temporal variability in the environmental dynamics of these semi-restricted seas that leads to the decoupling of epicontinental isotopic records from those of the open ocean. We present conodont apatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records spanning 24 Myr of the late Mississippian through Pennsylvanian derived from the U–Pb calibrated cyclothemic succession of the Donets Basin, eastern Ukraine. On a 2 to 6 Myr-scale, systematic fluctuations in bioapatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr broadly follow major shifts in the Donets onlap–offlap history and inferred regional climate, but are distinct from contemporaneous more open-water δ18OPO4 and global seawater Sr isotope trends. A −1 to −6‰ offset in Donets δ18OPO4 values from those of more open-water conodonts and greater temporal variability in δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records are interpreted to primarily record climatically driven changes in local environmental processes in the Donets sea. Systematic isotopic shifts associated with Myr-scale sea-level fluctuations, however, indicate an extrabasinal driver. We propose a mechanistic link to glacioeustasy through a teleconnection between high-latitude ice changes and atmospheric pCO2 and regional monsoonal circulation in the Donets region. Inferred large-magnitude changes in Donets seawater salinity and temperature, not archived in the more open-water or global contemporaneous records, indicate a modification of the global climate signal in the epicontinental sea through amplification or dampening of the climate signal by local and regional environmental processes. This finding of global climate change filtered through local processes has implications for the use of conodont δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr values as proxies of paleo-seawater composition, mean temperature, and glacioeustasy.

Imprint of long-term solar signal in groundwater recharge fluctuation rates from Northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, R. K.; Rajesh, Rekapalli

2014-05-01

Multiple spectral and statistical analyses of a 700 yearlong temporal record of groundwater recharge from the dry lands, Badain Jaran Desert (Inner Mongolia) of Northwest China reveal a stationary harmonic cycle at ~200 ± 20 year. Interestingly, the underlying periodicity in groundwater recharge fluctuations is similar to those of solar-induced climate cycle "Suess wiggles" and appears to be coherent with phases of the climate fluctuations and solar cycles. Matching periodicity of groundwater recharge rates and solar and climate cycles renders a strong impression that solar-induced climate signals may act as a critical amplifier for driving the underlying hydrographic cycle through the common coupling of long-term Sun-climate groundwater linkages.

Water level fluctuations in an urban pond: Climatic or anthropogenic impact?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benton, S.E.

2002-01-01

In 1996, the Illinois State Geological Survey began an investigation of fluctuating water levels in a pond in Cary, Illinois. The cause of the fluctuations appeared to be ground water discharge into a storm sewer recently installed by the Illinois Department of Transportation. However, analysis of climatic data provided an equally likely explanation of the fluctuations. Distinguishing the effect of climatic variations from the effect of the storm sewer was hampered by the lack of antecedent ground water and surface water data. In similar settings, it is recommended that ground water and surface water data be collected prior to initiating any infrastructure improvements.

Highly-seasonal monsoons controlled by Central Asian Eocene epicontinental sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bougeois, Laurie; Tindall, Julia; de Rafélis, Marc; Reichart, Gert-Jan; de Nooijer, Lennart; Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume

2015-04-01

Modern Asian climate is mainly controlled by seasonal reverse winds driven by continent-ocean thermal contrast. This yields monsoon pattern characterized by a strong seasonality in terms of precipitation and temperature and a duality between humidity along southern and eastern Asia and aridity in Central Asia. According to climate models, Asian Monsoons and aridification have been governed by Tibetan plateau uplift, global climate changes and the retreat of a vast epicontinental sea (the Proto-Paratethys sea) that used to cover Eurasia in Eocene times (55 to 34 Myr ago). Evidence for Asian aridification and monsoons a old as Eocene, are emerging from proxy and model data, however, the role of the Proto-Paratethys sea remains to be established by proxy data. By applying a novel infra-annual geochemical multi-proxy methodology on Eocene oyster shells of the Proto-Paratethys sea and comparing results to climate simulations, we show that the Central Asian region was generally arid with high seasonality from hot and arid summers to wetter winters. This high seasonality in Central Asia supports a monsoonal circulation was already established although the climate pattern was significantly different than today. During winter months, a strong influence of the Proto-Paratethys moisture is indicated by enhanced precipitations significantly higher than today. Precipitation probably dwindled because of the subsequent sea retreat as well as the uplift of the Tibetan and Pamir mountains shielding the westerlies. During Eocene summers, the local climate was hotter and more arid than today despite the presence of the Proto Paratethys. This may be explained by warmer Eocene global conditions with a strong anticyclonic Hadley cell descending at Central Asian latitudes (25 to 45 N). urthermore, the Tibetan plateau emerging at this time to the south must have already contributed a stronger Foehn effect during summer months bringing warm and dry air into Central Asia. Proto-Paratethys moisture driven into Asia by the westerlies during winters provides a potential mechanical link between Eocene global climate and Asian aridification through sea level fluctuations.

The absence of an Atlantic imprint on the multidecadal variability of wintertime European temperature.

PubMed

Yamamoto, Ayako; Palter, Jaime B

2016-03-15

Northern Hemisphere climate responds sensitively to multidecadal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). It is therefore surprising that an imprint of such variability is conspicuously absent in wintertime western European temperature, despite that Europe's climate is strongly influenced by its neighbouring ocean, where multidecadal variability in basin-average SST persists in all seasons. Here we trace the cause of this missing imprint to a dynamic anomaly of the atmospheric circulation that masks its thermodynamic response to SST anomalies. Specifically, differences in the pathways Lagrangian particles take to Europe during anomalous SST winters suppress the expected fluctuations in air-sea heat exchange accumulated along those trajectories. Because decadal variability in North Atlantic-average SST may be driven partly by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the atmosphere's dynamical adjustment to this mode of variability may have important implications for the European wintertime temperature response to a projected twenty-first century AMOC decline.

Holocene ice marginal fluctuations of the Qassimiut lobe in South Greenland

PubMed Central

Larsen, Nicolaj K.; Find, Jesper; Kristensen, Anders; Bjørk, Anders A.; Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Odgaard, Bent V.; Olsen, Jesper; Kjær, Kurt H.

2016-01-01

Knowledge about the Holocene evolution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is important to put the recent observations of ice loss into a longer-term perspective. In this study, we use six new threshold lake records supplemented with two existing lake records to reconstruct the Holocene ice marginal fluctuations of the Qassimiut lobe (QL) – one of the most dynamic parts of the GrIS in South Greenland. Times when the ice margin was close to present extent are characterized by clastic input from the glacier meltwater, whereas periods when the ice margin was behind its present day extent comprise organic-rich sediments. We find that the overall pattern suggests that the central part of the ice lobe in low-lying areas experienced the most prolonged ice retreat from ~9–0.4 cal. ka BP, whereas the more distal parts of the ice lobe at higher elevation re-advanced and remained close to the present extent during the Neoglacial between ~4.4 and 1.8 cal. ka BP. These results demonstrate that the QL was primarily driven by Holocene climate changes, but also emphasises the role of local topography on the ice marginal fluctuations. PMID:26940998

Investigation of the climate-driven periodicity of shallow groundwater level fluctuations in a Central-Eastern European agricultural region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garamhegyi, Tamás; Kovács, József; Pongrácz, Rita; Tanos, Péter; Hatvani, István Gábor

2018-05-01

The distribution and amount of groundwater, a crucial source of Earth's drinking and irrigation water, is changing due to climate-change effects. Therefore, it is important to understand groundwater behavior in extreme scenarios, e.g. drought. Shallow groundwater (SGW) level fluctuation under natural conditions displays periodic behavior, i.e. seasonal variation. Thus, the study aims to investigate (1) the periodic behavior of the SGW level time series of an agriculturally important and drought-sensitive region in Central-Eastern Europe - the Carpathian Basin, in the north-eastern part of the Great Hungarian Plain, and (2) its relationship to the European atmospheric pressure action centers. Data from 216 SGW wells were studied using wavelet spectrum analysis and wavelet coherence analyses for 1961-2010. Locally, a clear relationship exists between the absence of annual periodic behavior in the SGW level and the periodicity of droughts, as indicated by the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index and the Aridity Index. During the non-periodic intervals, significant drops in groundwater levels (average 0.5 m) were recorded in 89% of the wells. This result links the meteorological variables to the periodic behavior of SGW, and consequently, drought. On a regional scale, Mediterranean cyclones from the Gulf of Genoa (northwest Italy) were found to be a driving factor in the 8-yr periodic behavior of the SGW wells. The research documents an important link between SGW levels and local/regional climate variables or indices, thereby facilitating the necessary adaptation strategies on national and/or regional scales, as these must take into account the predictions of drought-related climatic conditions.

Role of large-scale velocity fluctuations in a two-vortex kinematic dynamo.

PubMed

Kaplan, E J; Brown, B P; Rahbarnia, K; Forest, C B

2012-06-01

This paper presents an analysis of the Dudley-James two-vortex flow, which inspired several laboratory-scale liquid-metal experiments, in order to better demonstrate its relation to astrophysical dynamos. A coordinate transformation splits the flow into components that are axisymmetric and nonaxisymmetric relative to the induced magnetic dipole moment. The reformulation gives the flow the same dynamo ingredients as are present in more complicated convection-driven dynamo simulations. These ingredients are currents driven by the mean flow and currents driven by correlations between fluctuations in the flow and fluctuations in the magnetic field. The simple model allows us to isolate the dynamics of the growing eigenvector and trace them back to individual three-wave couplings between the magnetic field and the flow. This simple model demonstrates the necessity of poloidal advection in sustaining the dynamo and points to the effect of large-scale flow fluctuations in exciting a dynamo magnetic field.

Fluctuation-Driven Neural Dynamics Reproduce Drosophila Locomotor Patterns

PubMed Central

Cruchet, Steeve; Gustafson, Kyle; Benton, Richard; Floreano, Dario

2015-01-01

The neural mechanisms determining the timing of even simple actions, such as when to walk or rest, are largely mysterious. One intriguing, but untested, hypothesis posits a role for ongoing activity fluctuations in neurons of central action selection circuits that drive animal behavior from moment to moment. To examine how fluctuating activity can contribute to action timing, we paired high-resolution measurements of freely walking Drosophila melanogaster with data-driven neural network modeling and dynamical systems analysis. We generated fluctuation-driven network models whose outputs—locomotor bouts—matched those measured from sensory-deprived Drosophila. From these models, we identified those that could also reproduce a second, unrelated dataset: the complex time-course of odor-evoked walking for genetically diverse Drosophila strains. Dynamical models that best reproduced both Drosophila basal and odor-evoked locomotor patterns exhibited specific characteristics. First, ongoing fluctuations were required. In a stochastic resonance-like manner, these fluctuations allowed neural activity to escape stable equilibria and to exceed a threshold for locomotion. Second, odor-induced shifts of equilibria in these models caused a depression in locomotor frequency following olfactory stimulation. Our models predict that activity fluctuations in action selection circuits cause behavioral output to more closely match sensory drive and may therefore enhance navigation in complex sensory environments. Together these data reveal how simple neural dynamics, when coupled with activity fluctuations, can give rise to complex patterns of animal behavior. PMID:26600381

Groundwater movement on a Low-lying Carbonate Atoll Island and its Response to Climatic and Sea-level Fluctuations: Roi Namur, Republic of the Marshall Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oberle, F. J.; Swarzenski, P. W.; Storlazzi, C. D.

2017-12-01

Atoll islands, most of which only average 1-2 meters above today's sea level, provide a tremendous natural laboratory in which to study and better understand the intensifying impacts of high rates of sea-level rise on tropical reef-lined islands. These islands are unique and on the frontline of negative societal impacts due to their geologic structure and limited water supply. Groundwater resources on atolls are typically minimal due to the low elevation and small surface area of the islands and are also subject to recurring droughts, and more frequent, storm-driven seawater overwash events. Although groundwater is the principal means of freshwater storage on atoll islands and is a major factor in determining the overall sustainability of island settlements, hydrological data on how an aquifer will response to changes in sea-level rise or storm-driven overwash remain limited. Here we present high-resolution time series hydrogeological and geochemical data from a 16 month study to determine the role of an atoll's carbonate geology, land use, and atmospheric and oceanographic forcing in driving coastal groundwater exchange including submarine groundwater discharge on the island of Roi-Namur on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. This information can provide new estimates on the recovery and resilience of coastal groundwater resources on similar islands that are expected to experience climate change-driven perturbations.

Can changes in the distributions of resident birds in China over the past 50 years be attributed to climate change?

PubMed Central

Wu, Jianguo; Zhang, Guobin

2015-01-01

The distributions of bird species have changed over the past 50 years in China. To evaluate whether the changes can be attributed to the changing climate, we analyzed the distributions of 20 subspecies of resident birds in relation to climate change. Long-term records of bird distributions, gray relational analysis, fuzzy-set classification techniques, and attribution methods were used. Among the 20 subspecies of resident birds, the northern limits of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward since the 1960s, and most changes have been related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past 50 years, the suitable range and latitude or longitude of the distribution centers of certain birds have exhibited increased fluctuations. The northern boundaries of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward compared with those in the 1960s. The consistency between the observed and predicted changes in the range limits was quite high for some subspecies. The changes in the northern boundaries or the latitudes of the centers of distribution of nearly half of the subspecies can be attributed to climate change. The results suggest that climate change has affected the distributions of particular birds. The method used to attribute changes in bird distributions to climate change may also be effective for other animals. PMID:26078858

Can changes in the distributions of resident birds in China over the past 50 years be attributed to climate change?

PubMed

Wu, Jianguo; Zhang, Guobin

2015-06-01

The distributions of bird species have changed over the past 50 years in China. To evaluate whether the changes can be attributed to the changing climate, we analyzed the distributions of 20 subspecies of resident birds in relation to climate change. Long-term records of bird distributions, gray relational analysis, fuzzy-set classification techniques, and attribution methods were used. Among the 20 subspecies of resident birds, the northern limits of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward since the 1960s, and most changes have been related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past 50 years, the suitable range and latitude or longitude of the distribution centers of certain birds have exhibited increased fluctuations. The northern boundaries of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward compared with those in the 1960s. The consistency between the observed and predicted changes in the range limits was quite high for some subspecies. The changes in the northern boundaries or the latitudes of the centers of distribution of nearly half of the subspecies can be attributed to climate change. The results suggest that climate change has affected the distributions of particular birds. The method used to attribute changes in bird distributions to climate change may also be effective for other animals.

Potential effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems of the Great Plains of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Covich, A.P.; Fritz, S.C.; Lamb, P.J.; Marzolf, R.D.; Matthews, W.J.; Poiani, K.A.; Prepas, E.E.; Richman, M.B.; Winter, T.C.

1997-01-01

The Great Plains landscape is less topographically complex than most other regions within North America, but diverse aquatic ecosystems, such as playas, pothole lakes, ox-bow lakes, springs, groundwater aquifers, intermittent and ephemeral streams, as well as large rivers and wetlands, are highly dynamic and responsive to extreme climatic fluctuations. We review the evidence for climatic change that demonstrates the historical importance of extremes in north-south differences in summer temperatures and east-west differences in aridity across four large subregions. These physical driving forces alter density stratification, deoxygenation, decomposition and salinity. Biotic community composition and associated ecosystem processes of productivity and nutrient cycling respond rapidly to these climatically driven dynamics. Ecosystem processes also respond to cultural effects such as dams and diversions of water for irrigation, waste dilution and urban demands for drinking water and industrial uses. Distinguishing climatic from cultural effects in future models of aquatic ecosystem functioning will require more refinement in both climatic and economic forecasting. There is a need, for example, to predict how long-term climatic forecasts (based on both ENSO and global warming simulations) relate to the permanence and productivity of shallow water ecosystems. Aquatic ecologists, hydrologists, climatologists and geographers have much to discuss regarding the synthesis of available data and the design of future interdisciplinary research. ?? 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Orbital forcing of climate 1.4 billion years ago.

PubMed

Zhang, Shuichang; Wang, Xiaomei; Hammarlund, Emma U; Wang, Huajian; Costa, M Mafalda; Bjerrum, Christian J; Connelly, James N; Zhang, Baomin; Bian, Lizeng; Canfield, Donald E

2015-03-24

Fluctuating climate is a hallmark of Earth. As one transcends deep into Earth time, however, both the evidence for and the causes of climate change become difficult to establish. We report geochemical and sedimentological evidence for repeated, short-term climate fluctuations from the exceptionally well-preserved ∼1.4-billion-year-old Xiamaling Formation of the North China Craton. We observe two patterns of climate fluctuations: On long time scales, over what amounts to tens of millions of years, sediments of the Xiamaling Formation record changes in geochemistry consistent with long-term changes in the location of the Xiamaling relative to the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. On shorter time scales, and within a precisely calibrated stratigraphic framework, cyclicity in sediment geochemical dynamics is consistent with orbital control. In particular, sediment geochemical fluctuations reflect what appear to be orbitally forced changes in wind patterns and ocean circulation as they influenced rates of organic carbon flux, trace metal accumulation, and the source of detrital particles to the sediment.

Oceanic crustal carbon cycle drives 26-million-year atmospheric carbon dioxide periodicities.

PubMed

Müller, R Dietmar; Dutkiewicz, Adriana

2018-02-01

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) data for the last 420 million years (My) show long-term fluctuations related to supercontinent cycles as well as shorter cycles at 26 to 32 My whose origin is unknown. Periodicities of 26 to 30 My occur in diverse geological phenomena including mass extinctions, flood basalt volcanism, ocean anoxic events, deposition of massive evaporites, sequence boundaries, and orogenic events and have previously been linked to an extraterrestrial mechanism. The vast oceanic crustal carbon reservoir is an alternative potential driving force of climate fluctuations at these time scales, with hydrothermal crustal carbon uptake occurring mostly in young crust with a strong dependence on ocean bottom water temperature. We combine a global plate model and oceanic paleo-age grids with estimates of paleo-ocean bottom water temperatures to track the evolution of the oceanic crustal carbon reservoir over the past 230 My. We show that seafloor spreading rates as well as the storage, subduction, and emission of oceanic crustal and mantle CO 2 fluctuate with a period of 26 My. A connection with seafloor spreading rates and equivalent cycles in subduction zone rollback suggests that these periodicities are driven by the dynamics of subduction zone migration. The oceanic crust-mantle carbon cycle is thus a previously overlooked mechanism that connects plate tectonic pulsing with fluctuations in atmospheric carbon and surface environments.

Oceanic crustal carbon cycle drives 26-million-year atmospheric carbon dioxide periodicities

PubMed Central

Müller, R. Dietmar; Dutkiewicz, Adriana

2018-01-01

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) data for the last 420 million years (My) show long-term fluctuations related to supercontinent cycles as well as shorter cycles at 26 to 32 My whose origin is unknown. Periodicities of 26 to 30 My occur in diverse geological phenomena including mass extinctions, flood basalt volcanism, ocean anoxic events, deposition of massive evaporites, sequence boundaries, and orogenic events and have previously been linked to an extraterrestrial mechanism. The vast oceanic crustal carbon reservoir is an alternative potential driving force of climate fluctuations at these time scales, with hydrothermal crustal carbon uptake occurring mostly in young crust with a strong dependence on ocean bottom water temperature. We combine a global plate model and oceanic paleo-age grids with estimates of paleo-ocean bottom water temperatures to track the evolution of the oceanic crustal carbon reservoir over the past 230 My. We show that seafloor spreading rates as well as the storage, subduction, and emission of oceanic crustal and mantle CO2 fluctuate with a period of 26 My. A connection with seafloor spreading rates and equivalent cycles in subduction zone rollback suggests that these periodicities are driven by the dynamics of subduction zone migration. The oceanic crust-mantle carbon cycle is thus a previously overlooked mechanism that connects plate tectonic pulsing with fluctuations in atmospheric carbon and surface environments. PMID:29457135

Temporal constraints on future accumulation-area loss of a major Arctic ice cap due to climate change (Vestfonna, Svalbard)

PubMed Central

Möller, Marco; Schneider, Christoph

2015-01-01

Arctic glaciers and ice caps are major contributors to past, present and future sea-level fluctuations. Continued global warming may eventually lead to the equilibrium line altitudes of these ice masses rising above their highest points, triggering unstoppable downwasting. This may feed future sea-level rise considerably. We here present projections for the timing of equilibrium-line loss at the major Arctic ice cap Vestfonna, Svalbard. The projections are based on spatially distributed climatic mass balance modelling driven by the outputs of multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. Results indicate strongly decreasing climatic mass balances over the 21st century for all RCPs considered. Glacier-wide mass-balance rates will drop down to −4 m a−1 w.e. (water equivalent) at a maximum. The date at which the equilibrium line rises above the summit of Vestfonna (630 m above sea level) is calculated to range between 2040 and 2150, depending on scenario. PMID:25628045

Climate influence on dengue epidemics in Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Jury, Mark R

2008-10-01

The variability of the insect-borne disease dengue in Puerto Rico was studied in relation to climatic variables in the period 1979-2005. Annual and monthly reported dengue cases were compared with precipitation and temperature data. Results show that the incidence of dengue in Puerto Rico was relatively constant over time despite global warming, possibly due to the offsetting effects of declining rainfall, improving health care and little change in population. Seasonal fluctuations of dengue were driven by rainfall increases from May to November. Year-to-year variability in dengue cases was positively related to temperature, but only weakly associated with local rainfall and an index of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Climatic conditions were mapped with respect to dengue cases and patterns in high and low years were compared. During epidemics, a low pressure system east of Florida draws warm humid air over the northwestern Caribbean. Long-term trends in past observed and future projected rainfall and temperatures were studied. Rainfall has declined slowly, but temperatures in the Caribbean are rising with the influence of global warming. Thus, dengue may increase in the future, and it will be necessary to anticipate dengue epidemics using climate forecasts, to reduce adverse health impacts.

Geomorphologic Mapping of a Last Glacial Maximum Moraine Sequence in the Far Eastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsay, B. J.; Putnam, A. E.; Strand, P.; Radue, M. J.; Dong, G.; Kong, X.; Li, M.; Sheriff, M.; Stevens, J.

2017-12-01

The abrupt millennial-scale climate events of the last glacial cycle constitute an important component of the ice-age puzzle. A complete explanation of glacial cycles, and their rapid terminations, must account for these millennial climatic `flickers'. Here we present a glacial geomorphologic map of a moraine system in a formerly glaciated valley within the mountains of Litang County in the eastern Tibetan Plateau of China. Geomorphologic mapping was conducted by interpreting satellite imagery, structure-from-motion imagery and digital elevation models, and field observations. This map provides context for a parallel ongoing 10Be exposure-dating effort, the preliminary results of which may be available by the time of this 2017 AGU Fall Meeting. We interpret the mapped moraines to document the millennial-scale pulsebeat of glacier advances in this region during the peak of the last ice age. Because changes in mountain glacier extent in this region are driven by atmospheric temperature, these moraines record past millennial climate changes. Altogether this mapping and exposure-dating approach will provide insight into the mechanisms for millennial-scale glacier and climate fluctuations in the interior of Asia.

Climate as a driver of continent-wide irruptions in boreal seed-eating birds (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strong, C.; Zuckerberg, B.; Betancourt, J. L.

2013-12-01

Boreal seed-eating birds regularly breed and overwinter throughout Canada and Alaska, but every few years these species demonstrate impressive irruptive migrations out of the boreal forest and into more southerly regions. It is thought that irruptive migrations are inversely dependent on a circumboreally synchronized pattern of seed crop fluctuations in boreal trees; seed-eating boreal birds stay in the north when food is plentiful, but sojourn south when food is scarce. Because both seed production and bird irruptions are characterized by periodicity ranging from biennial to decadal cycles, there is a strong possibility that these ecological phenomena are driven by climate variability. Using over twenty years of data from Project FeederWatch (a national citizen science project), we found that 'super irruptions' are correlated with continent-wide irruptive events in pine siskin population, and that these irruptions are associated with multi-decadal climate variability of Pacific origin. We also investigate how climate variability may influence the distribution of boreal bird species across different regions of North America during winter, and evaluate results in the context of limited banding data to assess possible geographic pathways of irruptions.

Climate-driven flushing of pore water in peatlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegel, D. I.; Reeve, A. S.; Glaser, P. H.; Romanowicz, E. A.

1995-04-01

NORTHERN peatlands can act as either important sources or sinks for atmospheric carbon1,2. It is therefore important to understand how carbon cycling in these regions will respond to a changing climate. Existing carbon balance models for peatlands assume that fluid flow and advective mass transport are negligible at depth3,4, and that the effects of climate change should be essentially limited to the near-surface. Here we report the response of groundwater flow and porewater chemistry in the Glacial Lake Agassiz peat-lands of northern Minnesota to the regional drought cycle. Comparison of field observations and numerical simulations indicates that climate fluctuations of short duration may temporarily reverse the vertical direction of fluid flow through the peat, although this has little effect on water chemistry5. On the other hand, periods of drought persisting for at least 3-5 years produce striking changes in the chemistry of the pore water. These longer-term changes in hydrology influence the flux of nutrients and dissolved organic matter through the deeper peat, and therefore affect directly the rates of fermentation and methanogenesis, and the export of dissolved carbon compounds from the peatland.

Uncoupling human and climate drivers of late Holocene vegetation change in southern Brazil.

PubMed

Robinson, Mark; De Souza, Jonas Gregorio; Maezumi, S Yoshi; Cárdenas, Macarena; Pessenda, Luiz; Prufer, Keith; Corteletti, Rafael; Scunderlick, Deisi; Mayle, Francis Edward; De Blasis, Paulo; Iriarte, José

2018-05-17

In the highlands of southern Brazil an anthropogenitcally driven expansion of forest occurred at the expense of grasslands between 1410 and 900 cal BP, coincident with a period of demographic and cultural change in the region. Previous studies have debated the relative contributions of increasing wetter and warmer climate conditions and human landscape modifications to forest expansion, but generally lacked high resoltiuon proxies to measure these effects, or have relied on single proxies to reconstruct both climate and vegetation. Here, we develop and test a model of natural ecosystem distribution against vegetation histories, paleoclimate proxies, and the archaeological record to distinguish human from temperature and precipitation impacts on the distribution and expansion of Araucaria forests during the late Holocene. Carbon isotopes from soil profiles confirm that in spite of climatic fluctuations, vegetation was stable and forests were spatially limited to south-facing slopes in the absence of human inputs. In contrast, forest management strategies for the past 1400 years expanded this economically important forest beyond its natural geographic boundaries in areas of dense pre-Columbian occupation, suggesting that landscape modifications were linked to demographic changes, the effects of which are still visible today.

Holocene ITCZ and ENSO-driven climate variability from the Panama isthmus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrego, D. H.; Aronson, R. B.; Bush, M. B.

2009-12-01

Holocene climate has previously been considered relatively stable compared to Pleistocene fluctuations. Recent paleoclimatic reconstructions have shown, however, that Holocene climatic variability is large and that the key to understanding and predicting responses to current climate change could lie in Holocene climatic history. In tropical regions, one of the most important oceanic-atmospheric systems regulating present and past interannual climatic fluctuations is the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Several hypotheses have been postulated to explain Holocene climate oscillations and their impacts in Northern South America. One of these hypotheses is that reduced precipitation during the mid-Holocene in the Caribbean and off the coast of Venezuela resulted from a southward migration of the ITCZ’s mean annual position (1, 2). In turn, this southward movement was associated with changes in the location of warm pools and insolation maxima regions in the tropical Atlantic. However, oscillations in Pacific warm pools should be expected to influence the annual ITCZ cycle as well. The latitudinal positions of these warm pools in the Pacific are directly influenced by ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), and are predicted to move south during El Niño (warm-ENSO) years. A mid-Holocene increase in the frequency of warm ENSO events is reported in the eastern Pacific after 6 ka (3, 4), and although this change occurred more than a thousand years earlier than the southward migrations of the ITCZ reconstructed from tropical Atlantic systems, we hypothesize that there must be a link between these two apparently separate events. Reconciling the roles of Atlantic versus Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions, and the effect of Pacific phenomena like ENSO on the annual position of the ITCZ are therefore crucial to understand climatic variability in tropical America. Lago La Yeguada is located in the Isthmus of Panama and its climate is determined mainly by the ITCZ, ENSO, and the effects of trade-wind-driven moisture exchanges between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans on the position of the ITCZ. A finely laminated sediment core from La Yeguada represents one of the most detailed Holocene climatic archives for the Isthmus. The pollen and charcoal records from La Yeguada were previously published (5) but detailed paleolimnological analyses were not conducted. Results from high-resolution x-ray fluorescence analyses of conspicuous changes in lamination patterns appear to correlate with mid-Holocene changes in ITCZ and ENSO systems recorded in the Cariaco Basin (2) and the eastern Pacific (3). A third climatic forcing associated with changes in upwelling in the Panama Bight was also observed. We conclude that mid-Holocene changes in ITCZ and ENSO systems had significant effects in both terrestrial and marine communities, as evidenced in the pollen record of La Yeguada and unpublished coral reef records from the Panama Bay. References: (1) Hodell, DA et al (1991) Nature, 352, 790-793; (2) Haug, GH et al (2001) Science, 293, 1304-1308; (3) Moy, CM et al (2002) Nature 420: 162-165; (4) Riedinger, MA et al (2002) Journal of Paleolimnology 27: 1-7; (5) Bush, MB et al (1990) Journal of Vegetation Science 1:105-118.

Real-time observation of fluctuations at the driven-dissipative Dicke phase transition

PubMed Central

Brennecke, Ferdinand; Mottl, Rafael; Baumann, Kristian; Landig, Renate; Donner, Tobias; Esslinger, Tilman

2013-01-01

We experimentally study the influence of dissipation on the driven Dicke quantum phase transition, realized by coupling external degrees of freedom of a Bose–Einstein condensate to the light field of a high-finesse optical cavity. The cavity provides a natural dissipation channel, which gives rise to vacuum-induced fluctuations and allows us to observe density fluctuations of the gas in real-time. We monitor the divergence of these fluctuations over two orders of magnitude while approaching the phase transition, and observe a behavior that deviates significantly from that expected for a closed system. A correlation analysis of the fluctuations reveals the diverging time scale of the atomic dynamics and allows us to extract a damping rate for the external degree of freedom of the atoms. We find good agreement with our theoretical model including dissipation via both the cavity field and the atomic field. Using a dissipation channel to nondestructively gain information about a quantum many-body system provides a unique path to study the physics of driven-dissipative systems. PMID:23818599

Onset and Evolution of Southern Annular Mode-Like Changes at Centennial Timescale.

PubMed

Moreno, P I; Vilanova, I; Villa-Martínez, R; Dunbar, R B; Mucciarone, D A; Kaplan, M R; Garreaud, R D; Rojas, M; Moy, C M; De Pol-Holz, R; Lambert, F

2018-02-22

The Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) are the surface expression of geostrophic winds that encircle the southern mid-latitudes. In conjunction with the Southern Ocean, they establish a coupled system that not only controls climate in the southern third of the world, but is also closely connected to the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and CO 2 degassing from the deep ocean. Paradoxically, little is known about their behavior since the last ice age and relationships with mid-latitude glacier history and tropical climate variability. Here we present a lake sediment record from Chilean Patagonia (51°S) that reveals fluctuations of the low-level SWW at mid-latitudes, including strong westerlies during the Antarctic Cold Reversal, anomalously low intensity during the early Holocene, which was unfavorable for glacier growth, and strong SWW since ~7.5 ka. We detect nine positive Southern Annular Mode-like events at centennial timescale since ~5.8 ka that alternate with cold/wet intervals favorable for glacier expansions (Neoglaciations) in southern Patagonia. The correspondence of key features of mid-latitude atmospheric circulation with shifts in tropical climate since ~10 ka suggests that coherent climatic shifts in these regions have driven climate change in vast sectors of the Southern Hemisphere at centennial and millennial timescales.

New Perspectives on the Role of Internal Variability in Regional Climate Change and Climate Model Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, C.

2017-12-01

Natural climate variability occurs over a wide range of time and space scales as a result of processes intrinsic to the atmosphere, the ocean, and their coupled interactions. Such internally generated climate fluctuations pose significant challenges for the identification of externally forced climate signals such as those driven by volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. This challenge is exacerbated for regional climate responses evaluated from short (< 50 years) data records. The limited duration of the observations also places strong constraints on how well the spatial and temporal characteristics of natural climate variability are known, especially on multi-decadal time scales. The observational constraints, in turn, pose challenges for evaluation of climate models, including their representation of internal variability and assessing the accuracy of their responses to natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings. A promising new approach to climate model assessment is the advent of large (10-100 member) "initial-condition" ensembles of climate change simulations with individual models. Such ensembles allow for accurate determination, and straightforward separation, of externally forced climate signals and internal climate variability on regional scales. The range of climate trajectories in a given model ensemble results from the fact that each simulation represents a particular sequence of internal variability superimposed upon a common forced response. This makes clear that nature's single realization is only one of many that could have unfolded. This perspective leads to a rethinking of approaches to climate model evaluation that incorporate observational uncertainty due to limited sampling of internal variability. Illustrative examples across a range of well-known climate phenomena including ENSO, volcanic eruptions, and anthropogenic climate change will be discussed.

Faunal turnover in the Azraq Basin, eastern Jordan 28,000 to 9000 cal yr BP, signalling climate change and human impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Louise; Edwards, Yvonne H.; Roe, Joe; Garrard, Andrew

2016-09-01

Recent zooarchaeological analyses of game exploitation in the Epipalaeolithic of the Southern Levant identify a decline in large game in the Natufian, with corresponding increase in small prey, interpreted as hunting pressure driven by population expansion. To date, studies focus on the Mediterranean zone. This paper adopts similar approaches to examine Epipalaeolithic to Neolithic faunal data from 16 sites in the steppic Jordanian Azraq Basin. Results here reveal very different trends. Large game, mainly equids, fluctuate throughout the Epipalaeolithic, due to climatic conditions and available water/vegetation. Cattle thrive in the Azraq oasis, showing no decline in the Late Epipalaeolithic. Gazelle exploitation is predominant and sustainable throughout the Epipalaeolithic, even at Kharaneh IV and Wadi Jilat 6 'megasites'. However, PPNB assemblages from the limestone steppe show intensive game exploitation resulting from longer-stay settlement. The focused gazelle-hunting camp at Dhuweila in the basalt desert also shows pressure from indiscriminate culling impacting herd demography, interpreted as providing meat for onwards exchange. Human impacts on steppe fauna appear both local and in many cases short-term, unlike the large-game suppression reported from west of the Rift Valley. Resource pressures and game over-kill, whether population-driven or otherwise, are not currently apparent east of the Jordan River.

The Baltic Sea natural long-term variability of salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schimanke, Semjon; Markus Meier, H. E.

2015-04-01

The Baltic Sea is one of the largest brackish sea areas of the world. The sensitive state of the Baltic Sea is sustained by a fresh-water surplus by river discharge and precipitation on one hand as well as inflows of highly saline and oxygen-rich water masses from the North Sea on the other. Major inflows which are crucial for the renewal of the deep water occur very intermittent with a mean frequency of approximately one per year. Stagnation periods (periods without major inflows) lead for instance to a reduction of oxygen concentration in the deep Baltic Sea spreading hypoxic conditions. Depending on the amount of salt water inflow and fresh-water supply the deep water salinity of the Baltic Sea varies between 11 to 14 PSU on the decadal scale. The goal of this study is to understand the contribution of different driving factors for the decadal to multi-decadal variability of salinity in the Baltic Sea. Continuous measurement series of salinity exist from the 1950 but are not sufficiently long for the investigation of long-term fluctuations. Therefore, a climate simulation of more than 800 years has been carried out with the Rossby Center Ocean model (RCO). RCO is a biogeochemical regional climate model which covers the entire Baltic Sea. It is driven with atmospheric data dynamical downscaled from a GCM mimicking natural climate variability. The analysis focus on the role of variations in river discharge and precipitation, changes in wind speed and direction, fluctuations in temperature and shifts in large scale pressure patterns (e.g. NAO). Hereby, the length of the simulation will allow to identify mechanisms working on decadal to multi-decadal time scales. Moreover, it will be discussed how likely long stagnation periods are under natural climate variability and if the observed exceptional long stagnation period between 1983-1993 might be related to beginning climate change.

Edge transport and mode structure of a QCM-like fluctuation driven by the Shoelace antenna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golfinopoulos, T.; LaBombard, B.; Brunner, D.; Terry, J. L.; Baek, S. G.; Ennever, P.; Edlund, E.; Han, W.; Burke, W. M.; Wolfe, S. M.; Irby, J. H.; Hughes, J. W.; Fitzgerald, E. W.; Granetz, R. S.; Greenwald, M. J.; Leccacorvi, R.; Marmar, E. S.; Pierson, S. Z.; Porkolab, M.; Vieira, R. F.; Wukitch, S. J.; The Alcator C-Mod Team

2018-05-01

The Shoelace antenna was built to drive edge fluctuations in the Alcator C-Mod tokamak, matching the wavenumber (k\\perp≈1.5 cm‑1) and frequency (30≲ f ≲ 200 kHz) of the quasi-coherent mode (QCM), which is responsible for regulating transport across the plasma boundary in the steady-state, ELM-free Enhanced D α (EDA) H-mode. Initial experiments in 2012 demonstrated that the antenna drove a resonant response in the edge plasma in steady-state EDA and transient, non-ELMy H-modes, but transport measurements were unavailable. In 2016, the Shoelace antenna was relocated to enable direct measurements of driven transport by a reciprocating Mirror Langmuir Probe, while also making available gas puff imaging and reflectometer data to provide additional radial localization of the driven fluctuation. This new data suggests a  ∼4 mm-wide mode layer centered on or just outside the separatrix. Fluctuations coherent with the antenna produced a radial electron flux with {Γ_e}/{n_e}∼4 m s‑1 in EDA H-mode, smaller than but comparable to the QCM level. But in transient ELM-free H-mode, {Γ_e}/{n_e} was an order of magnitude smaller, and driven fluctuations reduced by a factor of ≳ 3. The driven mode is quantitatively similar to the intrinsic QCM across measured spectral quantities, except that it is more coherent and weaker. This work informs the prospect of achieving control of edge transport by direct coupling to edge modes, as well as the use of such active coupling for diagnostic purposes.

Negative velocity fluctuations and non-equilibrium fluctuation relation for a driven high critical current vortex state.

PubMed

Bag, Biplab; Shaw, Gorky; Banerjee, S S; Majumdar, Sayantan; Sood, A K; Grover, A K

2017-07-17

Under the influence of a constant drive the moving vortex state in 2H-NbS 2 superconductor exhibits a negative differential resistance (NDR) transition from a steady flow to an immobile state. This state possesses a high depinning current threshold ([Formula: see text]) with unconventional depinning characteristics. At currents well above [Formula: see text], the moving vortex state exhibits a multimodal velocity distribution which is characteristic of vortex flow instabilities in the NDR regime. However at lower currents which are just above [Formula: see text], the velocity distribution is non-Gaussian with a tail extending to significant negative velocity values. These unusual negative velocity events correspond to vortices drifting opposite to the driving force direction. We show that this distribution obeys the Gallavotti-Cohen Non-Equilibrium Fluctuation Relation (GC-NEFR). Just above [Formula: see text], we also find a high vortex density fluctuating driven state not obeying the conventional GC-NEFR. The GC-NEFR analysis provides a measure of an effective energy scale (E eff ) associated with the driven vortex state. The E eff corresponds to the average energy dissipated by the fluctuating vortex state above [Formula: see text]. We propose the high E eff value corresponds to the onset of high energy dynamic instabilities in this driven vortex state just above [Formula: see text].

Climate-driven polar motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Celaya, Michael A.; Wahr, John M.; Bryan, Frank O.

1999-06-01

The output of a coupled climate system model provides a synthetic climate record with temporal and spatial coverage not attainable with observational data, allowing evaluation of climatic excitation of polar motion on timescales of months to decades. Analysis of the geodetically inferred Chandler excitation power shows that it has fluctuated by up to 90% since 1900 and that it has characteristics representative of a stationary Gaussian process. Our model-predicted climate excitation of the Chandler wobble also exhibits variable power comparable to the observed. Ocean currents and bottom pressure shifts acting together can alone drive the 14-month wobble. The same is true of the excitation generated by the combined effects of barometric pressure and winds. The oceanic and atmospheric contributions are this large because of a relatively high degree of constructive interference between seafloor pressure and currents and between atmospheric pressure and winds. In contrast, excitation by the redistribution of water on land appears largely insignificant. Not surprisingly, the full climate effect is even more capable of driving the wobble than the effects of the oceans or atmosphere alone are. Our match to the observed annual excitation is also improved, by about 17%, over previous estimates made with historical climate data. Efforts to explain the 30-year Markowitz wobble meet with less success. Even so, at periods ranging from months to decades, excitation generated by a model of a coupled climate system makes a close approximation to the amplitude of what is geodetically observed.

Stochastic Evolution Equations Driven by Fractional Noises

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-28

rate of convergence to zero or the error and the limit in distribution of the error fluctuations. We have studied time discrete numerical schemes...error fluctuations. We have studied time discrete numerical schemes based on Taylor expansions for rough differential equations and for stochastic...variations of the time discrete Taylor schemes for rough differential equations and for stochastic differential equations driven by fractional Brownian

Biological responses to environmental heterogeneity under future ocean conditions.

PubMed

Boyd, Philip W; Cornwall, Christopher E; Davison, Andrew; Doney, Scott C; Fourquez, Marion; Hurd, Catriona L; Lima, Ivan D; McMinn, Andrew

2016-08-01

Organisms are projected to face unprecedented rates of change in future ocean conditions due to anthropogenic climate-change. At present, marine life encounters a wide range of environmental heterogeneity from natural fluctuations to mean climate change. Manipulation studies suggest that biota from more variable marine environments have more phenotypic plasticity to tolerate environmental heterogeneity. Here, we consider current strategies employed by a range of representative organisms across various habitats - from short-lived phytoplankton to long-lived corals - in response to environmental heterogeneity. We then discuss how, if and when organismal responses (acclimate/migrate/adapt) may be altered by shifts in the magnitude of the mean climate-change signal relative to that for natural fluctuations projected for coming decades. The findings from both novel climate-change modelling simulations and prior biological manipulation studies, in which natural fluctuations are superimposed on those of mean change, provide valuable insights into organismal responses to environmental heterogeneity. Manipulations reveal that different experimental outcomes are evident between climate-change treatments which include natural fluctuations vs. those which do not. Modelling simulations project that the magnitude of climate variability, along with mean climate change, will increase in coming decades, and hence environmental heterogeneity will increase, illustrating the need for more realistic biological manipulation experiments that include natural fluctuations. However, simulations also strongly suggest that the timescales over which the mean climate-change signature will become dominant, relative to natural fluctuations, will vary for individual properties, being most rapid for CO2 (~10 years from present day) to 4 decades for nutrients. We conclude that the strategies used by biota to respond to shifts in environmental heterogeneity may be complex, as they will have to physiologically straddle wide-ranging timescales in the alteration of ocean conditions, including the need to adapt to rapidly rising CO2 and also acclimate to environmental heterogeneity in more slowly changing properties such as warming. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fluctuation-dissipation relations for motions of center of mass in driven granular fluids under gravity.

PubMed

Wakou, Jun'ichi; Isobe, Masaharu

2012-06-01

We investigated the validity of fluctuation-dissipation relations in the nonequilibrium stationary state of fluidized granular media under gravity by two independent approaches, based on theory and numerical simulations. A phenomenological Langevin-type theory describing the fluctuation of center of mass height, which was originally constructed for a one-dimensional granular gas on a vibrating bottom plate, was generalized to any dimensionality, even for the case in which the vibrating bottom plate is replaced by a thermal wall. The theory predicts a fluctuation-dissipation relation known to be satisfied at equilibrium, with a modification that replaces the equilibrium temperature by an effective temperature defined by the center of mass kinetic energy. To test the validity of the fluctuation-dissipation relation, we performed extensive and accurate event-driven molecular dynamics simulations for the model system with a thermal wall at the bottom. The power spectrum and response function of the center of mass height were measured and closely compared with theoretical predictions. It is shown that the fluctuation-dissipation relation for the granular system is satisfied, especially in the high-frequency (short time) region, for a wide range of system parameters. Finally, we describe the relationship between systematic deviations in the low-frequency (long time) region and the time scales of the driven granular system.

Response of Vegetation Greenness to Climate Change in Meadows of the Sierra Nevada Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Kaenel, M.

2016-12-01

Wet meadows in the Sierra Nevada Mountain Range provide crucial ecological and hydrological services such as groundwater recharge and habitat to both wildlife and human communities, yet they are one of the most at-risk landscapes of the Sierra Nevada, with 40-60% of meadows impacted by degradation. These meadows also face the threat of global climate warming, which will bring earlier snowmelt and a greater proportion of precipitation as rain rather than snow in the Sierra Nevada, leading to shifts in the hydrology that governs meadow health and function. To assess the vulnerability of meadows to potential climate-driven degradation, this research relied on remote sensing to track maximum annual vegetation greenness as an indicator for vegetation health and consequentially meadow function in 2,512 Sierra Nevada meadows from 1989 to 2015, and correlated these fluctuations with changes in local climate. Peak snow water content, April 1st snowpack depth, and total annual precipitation are all positively correlated with maximum meadow greenness, with precipitation being the best predictor of greenness. The extent to which meadow greenness varies with changes in climate differs significantly across elevation, latitude, vegetation type, and dominant rock type. Based on data-derived sensitivities, I conclude that restoration should be prioritized in grassland meadows and meadows at high elevations, due to their high vulnerability to changes in climate and a high risk of global warming induced hydrological shifts.

Large fluctuations of dissolved oxygen in the Indian and Pacific oceans during Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations caused by variations of North Atlantic Deep Water subduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmittner, Andreas; Galbraith, Eric D.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Pedersen, Thomas F.; Zhang, Rong

2007-09-01

Paleoclimate records from glacial Indian and Pacific oceans sediments document millennial-scale fluctuations of subsurface dissolved oxygen levels and denitrification coherent with North Atlantic temperature oscillations. Yet the mechanism of this teleconnection between the remote ocean basins remains elusive. Here we present model simulations of the oxygen and nitrogen cycles that explain how changes in deepwater subduction in the North Atlantic can cause large and synchronous variations of oxygen minimum zones throughout the Northern Hemisphere of the Indian and Pacific oceans, consistent with the paleoclimate records. Cold periods in the North Atlantic are associated with reduced nutrient delivery to the upper Indo-Pacific oceans, thereby decreasing productivity. Reduced export production diminishes subsurface respiration of organic matter leading to higher oxygen concentrations and less denitrification. This effect of reduced oxygen consumption dominates at low latitudes. At high latitudes in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific, increased mixed layer depths and steepening of isopycnals improve ocean ventilation and oxygen supply to the subsurface. Atmospheric teleconnections through changes in wind-driven ocean circulation modify this basin-scale pattern regionally. These results suggest that changes in the Atlantic Ocean circulation, similar to those projected by climate models to possibly occur in the centuries to come because of anthropogenic climate warming, can have large effects on marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles even in remote areas.

Modeling 100,000-year climate fluctuations in pre-Pleistocene time series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crowley, Thomas J.; Kim, Kwang-Yul; Mengel, John G.; Short, David A.

1992-01-01

A number of pre-Pleistocene climate records exhibit significant fluctuations at the 100,000-year (100-ky) eccentricity period, before the time of such fluctuations in global ice volume. The origin of these fluctuations has been obscure. Results reported here from a modeling study suggest that such a response can occur over low-altitude land areas involved in monsoon fluctuations. The twice yearly passage of the sun across the equator and the seasonal timing of perihelion interact to increase both 100-ky and 400-ky power in the modeled temperature field. The magnitude of the temperature response is sufficiently large to leave an imprint on the geologic record, and simulated fluctuations resemble those found in records of Triassic lake levels.

Flowline Modeling of the Quelccaya Icecap to Constrain Tropical Climate Fluctuations During the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malone, A.; Pierrehumbert, R.; Insel, N.; Lowell, T. V.; Kelly, M. A.

2012-12-01

The response of the tropics to climate forcing mechanisms is poorly understood, and there is limited data regarding past tropical climate fluctuations. Past climate fluctuations often leave a detectable record of glacial response in the location of moraines. Computer reconstructions of glacial length variations can thus help constrain past climate fluctuations. Chronology and position data for Holocene moraines are available for the Quelccaya Ice Cap in the Peruvian Andes. The Quelccaya Ice Cap is the equatorial region's largest glaciated area, and given its size and the available data, it is an ideal location at which to use a computer glacier model to reconstruct past glacial extents and constrain past tropical climate fluctuations. We can reproduce the current length and shape of the glacier in the Huancane Valley of the Quelccaya Ice Cap using a 1-D mountain glacier flowline model with an orographic precipitation scheme, an energy balance model for the ablation scheme, and reasonable modern climate conditions. We conduct two experiments. First, we determine the amount of cooling necessary to reproduce the observed Holocene moraine locations by holding the precipitation profile constant and varying the mean sea surface temperature (SST) values. Second, we determine the amount of precipitation increase necessary to reproduce the observed moraine locations by holding the mean SST value constant and varying the maximum precipitation values. We find that the glacier's length is highly sensitive to changes in temperature while only weakly sensitive to changes in precipitation. In the constant precipitation experiment, a decrease in the mean SST of only 0.35 °C can reproduce the nearest Holocene moraine downslope from the current glacier terminus and a decrease in the mean SST of only 1.43 °C can reproduce the furthest Holocene moraine downslope from the current terminus. In the experiment with constant SST, the necessary increase in maximum precipitation is much greater. An increase in the maximum precipitation of 30% is necessary to reproduce the nearest Holocene moraine and an increase in the maximum precipitation of 130% is necessary to reproduce the furthest Holocene moraine. Our results provide a range of values for the mean SST and maximum precipitation that can reproduce the location of Holocene glacial moraines, constraining some of the climate fluctuations in the tropics during the Holocene. These constraints can be used to test hypotheses for climate forcing mechanisms during Holocene events such as the Little Ice Age and possibly provide insight into future tropical climate fluctuations given current and future forcing mechanisms.

Universal Inverse Power-Law Distribution for Fractal Fluctuations in Dynamical Systems: Applications for Predictability of Inter-Annual Variability of Indian and USA Region Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selvam, A. M.

2017-01-01

Dynamical systems in nature exhibit self-similar fractal space-time fluctuations on all scales indicating long-range correlations and, therefore, the statistical normal distribution with implicit assumption of independence, fixed mean and standard deviation cannot be used for description and quantification of fractal data sets. The author has developed a general systems theory based on classical statistical physics for fractal fluctuations which predicts the following. (1) The fractal fluctuations signify an underlying eddy continuum, the larger eddies being the integrated mean of enclosed smaller-scale fluctuations. (2) The probability distribution of eddy amplitudes and the variance (square of eddy amplitude) spectrum of fractal fluctuations follow the universal Boltzmann inverse power law expressed as a function of the golden mean. (3) Fractal fluctuations are signatures of quantum-like chaos since the additive amplitudes of eddies when squared represent probability densities analogous to the sub-atomic dynamics of quantum systems such as the photon or electron. (4) The model predicted distribution is very close to statistical normal distribution for moderate events within two standard deviations from the mean but exhibits a fat long tail that are associated with hazardous extreme events. Continuous periodogram power spectral analyses of available GHCN annual total rainfall time series for the period 1900-2008 for Indian and USA stations show that the power spectra and the corresponding probability distributions follow model predicted universal inverse power law form signifying an eddy continuum structure underlying the observed inter-annual variability of rainfall. On a global scale, man-made greenhouse gas related atmospheric warming would result in intensification of natural climate variability, seen immediately in high frequency fluctuations such as QBO and ENSO and even shorter timescales. Model concepts and results of analyses are discussed with reference to possible prediction of climate change. Model concepts, if correct, rule out unambiguously, linear trends in climate. Climate change will only be manifested as increase or decrease in the natural variability. However, more stringent tests of model concepts and predictions are required before applications to such an important issue as climate change. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate (O'Gorman in Curr Clim Change Rep 1:49-59, 2015).

Different axes of environmental variation explain the presence vs. extent of cooperative nest founding associations in Polistes paper wasps.

PubMed

Sheehan, Michael J; Botero, Carlos A; Hendry, Tory A; Sedio, Brian E; Jandt, Jennifer M; Weiner, Susan; Toth, Amy L; Tibbetts, Elizabeth A

2015-10-01

Ecological constraints on independent breeding are recognised as major drivers of cooperative breeding across diverse lineages. How the prevalence and degree of cooperative breeding relates to ecological variation remains unresolved. Using a large data set of cooperative nesting in Polistes wasps we demonstrate that different aspects of cooperative breeding are likely to be driven by different aspects of climate. Whether or not a species forms cooperative groups is associated with greater short-term temperature fluctuations. In contrast, the number of cooperative foundresses increases in more benign environments with warmer, wetter conditions. The same data set reveals that intraspecific responses to climate variation do not mirror genus-wide trends and instead are highly heterogeneous among species. Collectively these data suggest that the ecological drivers that lead to the origin or loss of cooperation are different from those that influence the extent of its expression within populations. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The absence of an Atlantic imprint on the multidecadal variability of wintertime European temperature

PubMed Central

Yamamoto, Ayako; Palter, Jaime B.

2016-01-01

Northern Hemisphere climate responds sensitively to multidecadal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). It is therefore surprising that an imprint of such variability is conspicuously absent in wintertime western European temperature, despite that Europe's climate is strongly influenced by its neighbouring ocean, where multidecadal variability in basin-average SST persists in all seasons. Here we trace the cause of this missing imprint to a dynamic anomaly of the atmospheric circulation that masks its thermodynamic response to SST anomalies. Specifically, differences in the pathways Lagrangian particles take to Europe during anomalous SST winters suppress the expected fluctuations in air–sea heat exchange accumulated along those trajectories. Because decadal variability in North Atlantic-average SST may be driven partly by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the atmosphere's dynamical adjustment to this mode of variability may have important implications for the European wintertime temperature response to a projected twenty-first century AMOC decline. PMID:26975331

The annual cycles of phytoplankton biomass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winder, M.; Cloern, J.E.

2010-01-01

Terrestrial plants are powerful climate sentinels because their annual cycles of growth, reproduction and senescence are finely tuned to the annual climate cycle having a period of one year. Consistency in the seasonal phasing of terrestrial plant activity provides a relatively low-noise background from which phenological shifts can be detected and attributed to climate change. Here, we ask whether phytoplankton biomass also fluctuates over a consistent annual cycle in lake, estuarine-coastal and ocean ecosystems and whether there is a characteristic phenology of phytoplankton as a consistent phase and amplitude of variability. We compiled 125 time series of phytoplankton biomass (chloro-phyll a concentration) from temperate and subtropical zones and used wavelet analysis to extract their dominant periods of variability and the recurrence strength at those periods. Fewer than half (48%) of the series had a dominant 12-month period of variability, commonly expressed as the canonical spring-bloom pattern. About 20 per cent had a dominant six-month period of variability, commonly expressed as the spring and autumn or winter and summer blooms of temperate lakes and oceans. These annual patterns varied in recurrence strength across sites, and did not persist over the full series duration at some sites. About a third of the series had no component of variability at either the six-or 12-month period, reflecting a series of irregular pulses of biomass. These findings show that there is high variability of annual phytoplankton cycles across ecosystems, and that climate-driven annual cycles can be obscured by other drivers of population variability, including human disturbance, aperiodic weather events and strong trophic coupling between phytoplankton and their consumers. Regulation of phytoplankton biomass by multiple processes operating at multiple time scales adds complexity to the challenge of detecting climate-driven trends in aquatic ecosystems where the noise to signal ratio is high. ?? 2010 The Royal Society.

Microgravity Segregation in Binary Mixtures of Inelastic Spheres Driven by Velocity Fluctuation Gradients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jenkins, James T.; Louge, Michel Y.

1996-01-01

We are interested in collisional granular flows of dry materials in reduced gravity. Because the particles interact through collisions, the energy of the particle velocity fluctuations plays an important role in the physics. Here we focus on the separation of grains by properties - size, for example - that is driven by spatial gradients in the fluctuation energy of the grains. The segregation of grains by size is commonly observed in geophysical flows and industrial processes. Segregation of flowing grains can also take place based on other properties, e.g. shape, mass, friction, and coefficient of restitution. Many mechanisms may be responsible for segregation; most of these are strongly influenced by gravity. Here, we outline a mechanism that is independent of gravity. This mechanism may be important but is often obscured in terrestrial grain flows. It is driven by gradients in fluctuation energy. In microgravity, the separation of grains by property will proceed slowly enough to permit flight observations to provide an unambiguous measurement of the transport coefficients associated with the segregation. In this context, we are planning a microgravity shear cell experiment that contains a mixture of two types of spherical grains. The grains will be driven to interact with two different types of boundaries on either sides of the cell. The resulting separation will be observed visually.

Seasonality in cholera dynamics: A rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns in endemic areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baracchini, Theo; King, Aaron A.; Bouma, Menno J.; Rodó, Xavier; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Pascual, Mercedes

2017-10-01

Seasonal patterns in cholera dynamics exhibit pronounced variability across geographical regions, showing single or multiple peaks at different times of the year. Although multiple hypotheses related to local climate variables have been proposed, an understanding of this seasonal variation remains incomplete. The historical Bengal region, which encompasses the full range of cholera's seasonality observed worldwide, provides a unique opportunity to gain insights on underlying environmental drivers. Here, we propose a mechanistic, rainfall-temperature driven, stochastic epidemiological model which explicitly accounts for the fluctuations of the aquatic reservoir, and analyze with this model the historical dataset of cholera mortality in the Bengal region. Parameters are inferred with a recently developed sequential Monte Carlo method for likelihood maximization in partially observed Markov processes. Results indicate that the hydrological regime is a major driver of the seasonal dynamics of cholera. Rainfall tends to buffer the propagation of the disease in wet regions due to the longer residence times of water in the environment and an associated dilution effect, whereas it enhances cholera resurgence in dry regions. Moreover, the dynamics of the environmental water reservoir determine whether the seasonality is unimodal or bimodal, as well as its phase relative to the monsoon. Thus, the full range of seasonal patterns can be explained based solely on the local variation of rainfall and temperature. Given the close connection between cholera seasonality and environmental conditions, a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms would allow the better management and planning of public health policies with respect to climate variability and climate change.

Formation of most of our coal brought Earth close to global glaciation.

PubMed

Feulner, Georg

2017-10-24

The bulk of Earth's coal deposits used as fossil fuel today was formed from plant debris during the late Carboniferous and early Permian periods. The high burial rate of organic carbon correlates with a significant drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) at that time. A recent analysis of a high-resolution record reveals large orbitally driven variations in atmospheric CO 2 concentration between [Formula: see text]150 and 700 ppm for the latest Carboniferous and very low values of 100 [Formula: see text] 80 ppm for the earliest Permian. Here, I explore the sensitivity of the climate around the Carboniferous/Permian boundary to changes in Earth's orbital parameters and in atmospheric CO 2 using a coupled climate model. The coldest orbital configurations are characterized by large axial tilt and small eccentricities of Earth's elliptical orbit, whereas the warmest configuration occurs at minimum tilt, maximum eccentricity, and a perihelion passage during Northern hemisphere spring. Global glaciation occurs at CO 2 concentrations <40 ppm, suggesting a rather narrow escape from a fully glaciated Snowball Earth state given the low levels and large fluctuations of atmospheric CO 2 These findings highlight the importance of orbital cycles for the climate and carbon cycle during the late Paleozoic ice age and the climatic significance of the fossil carbon stored in Earth's coal deposits.

Historical analysis of riparian vegetation change in response to shifting management objectives on the Middle Rio Grande

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petrakis, Roy; van Leeuwen, Willem J.D.; Villarreal, Miguel; Tashjian, Paul; Dello Russo, Regina; Scott, Christopher A.

2017-01-01

Riparian ecosystems are valuable to the ecological and human communities that depend on them. Over the past century, they have been subject to shifting management practices to maximize human use and ecosystem services, creating a complex relationship between water policy, management, and the natural ecosystem. This has necessitated research on the spatial and temporal dynamics of riparian vegetation change. The San Acacia Reach of the Middle Rio Grande has experienced multiple management and river flow fluctuations, resulting in threats to its riparian and aquatic ecosystems. This research uses remote sensing data, GIS, a review of management decisions, and an assessment of climate to both quantify how riparian vegetation has been altered over time and provide interpretations of the relationships between riparian change and shifting climate and management objectives. This research focused on four management phases from 1935 to 2014, each highlighting different management practices and climate-driven river patterns, providing unique opportunities to observe a direct relationship between river management, climate, and riparian response. Overall, we believe that management practices coupled with reduced surface river-flows with limited overbank flooding influenced the compositional and spatial patterns of vegetation, including possibly increasing non-native vegetation coverage. However, recent restoration efforts have begun to reduce non-native vegetation coverage.

Historical and contemporary geographic data reveal complex spatial and temporal responses of vegetation to climate and land stewardship

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel L.; Norman, Laura M.; Webb, Robert H.; Turner, Raymond M.

2013-01-01

Vegetation and land-cover changes are not always directional but follow complex trajectories over space and time, driven by changing anthropogenic and abiotic conditions. We present a multi-observational approach to land-change analysis that addresses the complex geographic and temporal variability of vegetation changes related to climate and land use. Using land-ownership data as a proxy for land-use practices, multitemporal land-cover maps, and repeat photography dating to the late 19th century, we examine changing spatial and temporal distributions of two vegetation types with high conservation value in the southwestern United States: grasslands and riparian vegetation. In contrast to many reported vegetation changes, notably shrub encroachment in desert grasslands, we found an overall increase in grassland area and decline of xeroriparian and riparian vegetation. These observed change patterns were neither temporally directional nor spatially uniform over the landscape. Historical data suggest that long-term vegetation changes coincide with broad climate fluctuations while fine-scale patterns are determined by land-management practices. In some cases, restoration and active management appear to weaken the effects of climate on vegetation; therefore, if land managers in this region act in accord with on-going directional changes, the current drought and associated ecological reorganization may provide an opportunity to achieve desired restoration endpoints.

Intensity and angle-of-arrival spectra of laser light propagating through axially homogeneous buoyancy-driven turbulence.

PubMed

Pawar, Shashikant S; Arakeri, Jaywant H

2016-08-01

Frequency spectra obtained from the measurements of light intensity and angle of arrival (AOA) of parallel laser light propagating through the axially homogeneous, axisymmetric buoyancy-driven turbulent flow at high Rayleigh numbers in a long (length-to-diameter ratio of about 10) vertical tube are reported. The flow is driven by an unstable density difference created across the tube ends using brine and fresh water. The highest Rayleigh number is about 8×10⁹. The aim of the present work is to find whether the conventional Obukhov-Corrsin scaling or Bolgiano-Obukhov (BO) scaling is obtained for the intensity and AOA spectra in the case of light propagation in a buoyancy-driven turbulent medium. Theoretical relations for the frequency spectra of log amplitude and AOA fluctuations developed for homogeneous isotropic turbulent media are modified for the buoyancy-driven flow in the present case to obtain the asymptotic scalings for the high and low frequency ranges. For low frequencies, the spectra of intensity and vertical AOA fluctuations obtained from measurements follow BO scaling, while scaling for the spectra of horizontal AOA fluctuations shows a small departure from BO scaling.

Late Noachian Climate Of Mars: Constraints From Valley Network System Formation Times And The Intermittencies (Episodic/Periodic And Punctuated).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, James

2017-04-01

Formation of Late Noachian-Early Hesperian (LN-EH) valley network systems (VNS) signaled the presence of warm/wet conditions generating several hypotheses for climates permissive of these conditions. To constrain options for the ambient Noachian climate, we examine estimates for time required to carve channels/deltas and total duration implied by plausible intermittencies. Formation Times for VN, OBL, Deltas, Fans: A synthesis of required timescales show that even with the longest estimated continuous duration of VN formation/intermittencies, total time to carve the VN does not exceed 106 years, <˜0.25% of the total Noachian. Intermittency/episodicity assumptions are climate-model dependent (e.g., most workers use Earth-like fluvial activity and intermittency). Noachian-Early Hesperian Climate Models: 1) Warm and wet/semiarid/arid climate: Sustained background MAT >273 K, hydrological system vertically integrated, and rainfall occurs to recharge the aquifer. Two subtypes: a) "Rainfall/Fluvial Erosion-Dominated Warm and Wet Model": "Rainfall and surface runoff" persist throughout Noachian to explain crater degradation, and a LN-EH short rapidly ending terminal epoch. b) "Recharge Evaporation/Evaporite Dominated Warm and Wet Model": Sustained period of equatorial/mid-latitude precipitation and a vertically integrated hydrological system driven by evaporative upwelling and fluctuating shallow water table playa environments account for sulfate evaporate environments at Meridiani Planum. Sustained temperatures >273 K are required for extended periods (107-108 years). 2) Cold and icy climate: Sustained background temperatures extremely low (MAT ˜225 K), cryosphere is globally continuous, hydrological system is horizontally stratified, separating groundwater system from surface; no combination of spin-axis/orbital perturbations can raise MAT to 273 K. Adiabatic cooling effects transfer water to high altitudes, leading to "Late Noachian Icy Highlands Model". VNS cannot form in this nominal climate environment without special circumstances (e.g., impacts or volcanic eruptions elevate of temperatures by >˜50 K to induce melting and fluvial/lacustrine activity). 3) Cold and Icy climate warmed by greenhouse gases: The climate is sustained cold/icy model, but greenhouse gases of unspecified nature/amount/duration elevate MAT by several tens of Kelvins (say 25 K, to MAT 250 K), bringing annual temperature range into the realm where peak seasonal temperatures (PST) exceed 273 K. In this climate environment, analogous to the Antarctic Dry Valleys, seasonal summer temperatures above 273 K are sufficient to melt snow/ice and form fluvial and lacustrine features, but MAT is well below 273 K (253 K). Fluvial systems driven by episodic/periodic intermittency typically involve short intermittency time-scales (10-106 years) but require a warm climate (MAT >273 K) to be sustained for >0.4 x 109 years. Fluvial systems driven by punctuated intermittency typically involve short duration time-scales (10-105 years) but only require a warm climate (MAT >273 K) for the very short duration of the climatic impact of the punctuated event (102-105 years). We conclude that a cold and icy background climate with punctuated intermittency of warming and melting events is consistent with: 1) the estimated durations of continuous VN formation (<105 years) and 2) VN system estimated recurrence rates (106-107 years).

Fluctuations of a Greenlandic tidewater glacier driven by changes in atmospheric forcing: observations and modelling of Kangiata Nunaata Sermia, 1859-present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lea, J. M.; Mair, D. W. F.; Nick, F. M.; Rea, B. R.; van As, D.; Morlighem, M.; Nienow, P. W.; Weidick, A.

2014-11-01

Many tidewater glaciers in Greenland are known to have undergone significant retreat during the last century following their Little Ice Age maxima. Where it is possible to reconstruct glacier change over this period, they provide excellent records for comparison to climate records, as well as calibration/validation for numerical models. These glacier change records therefore allow for tests of numerical models that seek to simulate tidewater glacier behaviour over multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Here we present a detailed record of behaviour from Kangiata Nunaata Sermia (KNS), SW Greenland, between 1859 and 2012, and compare it against available oceanographic and atmospheric temperature data between 1871 and 2012. We also use these records to evaluate the ability of a well-established one-dimensional flow-band model to replicate behaviour for the observation period. The record of terminus change demonstrates that KNS has advanced/retreated in phase with atmosphere and ocean climate anomalies averaged over multi-annual to decadal timescales. Results from an ensemble of model runs demonstrate that observed dynamics can be replicated. Model runs that provide a reasonable match to observations always require a significant atmospheric forcing component, but do not necessarily require an oceanic forcing component. Although the importance of oceanic forcing cannot be discounted, these results demonstrate that changes in atmospheric forcing are likely to be a primary driver of the terminus fluctuations of KNS from 1859 to 2012. We propose that the detail and length of the record presented makes KNS an ideal site for model validation exercises investigating links between climate, calving rates, and tidewater glacier dynamics.

Climate-driven vital rates do not always mean climate-driven population.

PubMed

Tavecchia, Giacomo; Tenan, Simone; Pradel, Roger; Igual, José-Manuel; Genovart, Meritxell; Oro, Daniel

2016-12-01

Current climatic changes have increased the need to forecast population responses to climate variability. A common approach to address this question is through models that project current population state using the functional relationship between demographic rates and climatic variables. We argue that this approach can lead to erroneous conclusions when interpopulation dispersal is not considered. We found that immigration can release the population from climate-driven trajectories even when local vital rates are climate dependent. We illustrated this using individual-based data on a trans-equatorial migratory seabird, the Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, in which the variation of vital rates has been associated with large-scale climatic indices. We compared the population annual growth rate λ i , estimated using local climate-driven parameters with ρ i , a population growth rate directly estimated from individual information and that accounts for immigration. While λ i varied as a function of climatic variables, reflecting the climate-dependent parameters, ρ i did not, indicating that dispersal decouples the relationship between population growth and climate variables from that between climatic variables and vital rates. Our results suggest caution when assessing demographic effects of climatic variability especially in open populations for very mobile organisms such as fish, marine mammals, bats, or birds. When a population model cannot be validated or it is not detailed enough, ignoring immigration might lead to misleading climate-driven projections. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Understanding the link between malaria risk and climate.

PubMed

Paaijmans, Krijn P; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B

2009-08-18

The incubation period for malaria parasites within the mosquito is exquisitely temperature-sensitive, so that temperature is a major determinant of malaria risk. Epidemiological models are increasingly used to guide allocation of disease control resources and to assess the likely impact of climate change on global malaria burdens. Temperature-based malaria transmission is generally incorporated into these models using mean monthly temperatures, yet temperatures fluctuate throughout the diurnal cycle. Here we use a thermodynamic malaria development model to demonstrate that temperature fluctuation can substantially alter the incubation period of the parasite, and hence malaria transmission rates. We find that, in general, temperature fluctuation reduces the impact of increases in mean temperature. Diurnal temperature fluctuation around means >21 degrees C slows parasite development compared with constant temperatures, whereas fluctuation around <21 degrees C speeds development. Consequently, models which ignore diurnal variation overestimate malaria risk in warmer environments and underestimate risk in cooler environments. To illustrate the implications further, we explore the influence of diurnal temperature fluctuation on malaria transmission at a site in the Kenyan Highlands. Based on local meteorological data, we find that the annual epidemics of malaria at this site cannot be explained without invoking the influence of diurnal temperature fluctuation. Moreover, while temperature fluctuation reduces the relative influence of a subtle warming trend apparent over the last 20 years, it nonetheless makes the effects biologically more significant. Such effects of short-term temperature fluctuations have not previously been considered but are central to understanding current malaria transmission and the consequences of climate change.

Climatic, eustatic, and tectnoic controls on Quarternary deposits and landforms, Red Sea coast, Egypt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arvidson, Raymond; Becker, Richard; Shanabrook, Amy; Luo, Wei; Sturchio, Neil; Sultan, Mohamed; Lofty, Zakaria; Mahmood, Abdel Moneim; El Alfy, Zeinhom

1994-01-01

The degree to which local climatic variations, eustatic sea level fluctuations, and tectonic uplift have influenced the development of Quaternary marine and fluvial landforms and deposits along the Red Sea coast, Eastern Desert, was investigated using a combination of remote sensing and field data, age determinations of corals, and numerical simulations. False color composites generated from Landsat Thematic Mapper and SPOT image data, digital elevation models derived from sterophotogrammetric analysis of SPOT data, and field observations document that a approximately 10-km wide swath inland from the coast is covered in many places with coalescing alluvial fans of Quaternary age. Wadis cutting through the fans exhibit several pairs of fluvial terraces, and wadi walls expose alluvium interbedded with corraline limestone deposits Further, three distinct coral terraces are evident along the coatline. Climatic, eustatic, and tectonic uplift controls on the overall system were simulated using a cellular automata algorithm with the following characteristics: (1) uplift as a function of position and time, as defined by the elevations and ages of corals; (2) climatic variations driven by insolation changes associated with Milankovitch cycles; (3) sea level fluctuations based on U/Th ages of coral terraces and eustatic data; and (4) parametrized fluvial erosion and deposition. Results imply that the fans and coralline limestones were generated in a setting in which the tectonic uplift rate decreased over the Quarternary to negligible values at present. Coralline limestones formed furing eustatic highstands when alluvium was trapped uspstream and wadis filled with debris. During lowstands, wadis cut into sedimentary deposits; coupled with continuing uplift, fans were dissected, leaving remnant surfaces, and wadi-related terraces were generated by down cutting. Only landforms from the past three to four eustatic sea level cycles (i.e., approximately 300 to 400 kyr) are likely to have survived erosion and deposition associated with fluvial processes.

Modeling Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in warm climates: a historical perspective.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollard, D.; Deconto, R. M.; Gasson, E.

2016-12-01

Early modeling of Antarctic Ice Sheet size vs. climate focused on asymmetry between retreat and growth, with much greater warming needed to cause retreat from full ice cover, due to Height Mass Balance Feedback and albedo feedback. This led to a long-standing model-data conflict, with models needing 1000 to2000 ppmv atmospheric CO2 to produce retreat from full size, vs. proxy data of large ice fluctuations despite much lower CO2 since the Miocene.Subsequent modeling with marine ice physics found that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could undergo repeated warm-period collapses with realistic past forcing. However, that yields only 3 to 7 m equivalent sea-level rise above modern, compared to 10 to 20 m or more suggested by some geologic data. Large subglacial basins in East Antarctica could be vulnerable to the same processes,but did not retreat in most models due to narrower and shallower sills.After recent modifications, some ice sheet models were able to produce warm-period collapse of major East Antarctic basins, with sea-level rise of up to 15 m. The modifications are (i) hydrofracturing by surface melt, and structural failure of ice cliffs, or (ii) numerical treatment at the grounding line. In these models, large retreat occurs both for past warmintervals, and also for future business-as-usual scenarios.Some interpretations of data in the late Oligocene and Miocene suggest yet larger fluctuations, between 50 to 100% of modern Antarctic size. That would require surface-melt driven retreat of some terrestrial East Antarctic ice, despite the hysteresis issue raised above. A recent study using a coupled climate-ice sheet model found that with a finer climate gridand more frequent coupling exchange, substantial retreat of terrestrial Antarctica can occur with 500 to 840 ppmv CO2, much lower than in earlier models. This will allow meaningful interactions between modeling and deeper-time geologic interpretations since the late Oligocene.

Climatic, eustatic, and tectonic controls on Quaternary deposits and landforms, Red Sea coast, Egypt

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arvidson, R.; Becker, R.; Shanabrook, A.

1994-06-10

The degree to which local climatic variations, eustatic sea level fluctuations, and tectonic uplift have influenced the development of Quaternary marine and fluvial landforms and deposits along the Red Sea coast, Eastern Desert, Egypt was investigated using a combination of remote sensing and field data, age determinations of corals, and numerical simulations. False color composites generated from Landsat Thematic Mapper and SPOT image data, digital elevation models derived from stereophotogrammetric analysis of SPOT data, and field observations document that a {approximately}10-km-wide swath inland from the coast is covered in many places with coalescing alluvial fans of Quaternary age. Wadis cuttingmore » through the fans exhibit several pairs of fluvial terraces, and wadi walls expose alluvium interbedded with coralline limestone deposits. Further, three distinct coral terraces are evident along the coastline. Climatic, eustatic, and tectonic uplift controls on the overall system were simulated using a cellular automata algorithm with the following characteristics: (1) uplift as a function of position and time, as defined by the elevations and ages of corals; (2) climatic variations driven by insolation changes associated with Milankovitch cycles; (3) sea level fluctuations based on U/Th ages of coral terraces and eustatic data; and (4) parameterized fluvial erosion and deposition. Results imply that the fans and coralline limestones were generated in a setting in which the tectonic uplift rate decreased over the Quaternary to negligible values at present. During lowstands, wadis cut into sedimentary deposits; coupled with continuing uplift, fans were dissected, leaving remnant surfaces, and wadi-related terraces were generated by down cutting. Only landforms from the past three to four eustatic sea level cycles (i.e., {approximately} 300 to 400 kyr) are likely to have survived erosion and deposition associated with fluvial processes. 33 refs., 18 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Beach-ridge sedimentology as an archive of terrestrial climate change: Insights from a geochemical and stratigraphic study of the Tijucas Strandplain, southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krask, J. L.; Hein, C. J.; Galy, V.; FitzGerald, D.; Henrique de Fontoura Klein, A.

2017-12-01

Whereas millennial-scale variations in climate forcing drives changes in terrestrial processes, which are in turn directly linked to fluvial sediment loads (e.g., weathering and erosion), the impact of decadal- to centennial- scale climate fluctuations on downstream coastal sedimentation patterns and landscape evolution remains unclear. Specifically, the connection between long-term (decades or more) precipitation seasonality and sediment export from river systems has not been established. This study examines the manner in which sub-millennial-scale fluctuations in precipitation over river catchments may be recorded in coastal progradational sedimentary archives. The 5-km wide Tijucas Strandplain (southern Brazil) formed over the last 5800 years through the rapid reworking of sediment discharged from the Tijucas River in a regime of falling sea level. In an overall regime shift from sand- to mud- dominance (linked to a long-term reduction in wave energy caused by bay shoaling) are nearly 70 distinct transitions between shore-parallel sand- and mud- dominated facies. Bulk organic carbon and terrestrial plant-wax fatty acid stable hydrogen (δD) and carbon (δ13C) isotopic measurements from sediments from select sandy and muddy ridges across the plain reveal that these two sedimentological regimes are geochemically distinct. Specifically, waxes from sediments deposited during periods of sandy progradation had δD values, on average, >10 ‰ higher than those from mud-dominated periods, indicating that these sedimentary units reflect different hydroclimatic conditions within the river drainage basin at the time of deposition. Comparison of plant wax isotopic signatures of river, bay, and beach sediments during the current period of mud-dominated progradation reveals a close correlation with earlier periods of mud deposition within the Tijucas Strandplain. Thus, decadal- to centennial- scale sedimentologic transitions within the plain are interpreted to reflect climate-driven changes in mud export rates, as product of modifications in river basin vegetation and soil formation and erosional processes.

Milankovitch Modulation of the Ecosystem Dynamics of Fossil Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whiteside, J. H.; Olsen, P. E.; Eglinton, T. I.; Cornet, B.; Huber, P.; McDonald, N. G.

2008-12-01

Triassic and Early Jurassic lacustrine deposits of eastern North American rift basins preserve a spectacular record of precession-related Milankovitch forcing in the Pangean tropics. The abundant and well-preserved fossil fish assemblages from these great lakes demonstrate a sequence of cyclical changes that track the permeating hierarchy of climatic cycles. To detail ecosystem processes correlating with succession of fish communities, we measured bulk δ13Corg through a 100 ky series of Early Jurassic climatic precession-forced lake level cycles in the lower Shuttle Meadow Formation of the Hartford rift basin, CT. The deep-water phase of one of these cycles, the Bluff Head bed, has produced thousands of articulated fish. We observe fluctuations in the bulk δ13Corg of the cyclical strata that reflect differing degrees of lake water stratification, nutrient levels, and relative proportion of algal vs. plant derived organic matter that trace fish community changes. We can exclude extrinsic changes in the global exchangeable reservoirs as an origin of this variability because molecule-level δ13C of n-alkanes of plant leaf waxes from the same strata show no such variability. While at higher taxonomic levels the fish communities responded largely by sorting of taxa by environmental forcing, at the species level the holostean genus Semionotus responded by in situ evolution, and ultimately extinction, of a species flock. Fluctuations at the higher frequency, climatic precessional scale are mirrored at lower frequency, eccentricity modulated, scales, all following the lake-level hierarchical pattern. Thus, lacustrine isotopic ratios amplify the Milankovitch climate signal that was already intensified by sequelae of the end-Triassic extinctions. The degree to which the ecological structure of modern lakes responds to similar environmental cyclicity is largely unknown, but we suspect similar patterns and processes within the Neogene history of the East African great lakes, which may be modified in the future by anthropogenic CO2-driven intensification of the hydrological cycle.

Contributions of historical and contemporary geographic and environmental factors to phylogeographic structure in a Tertiary relict species, Emmenopterys henryi (Rubiaceae)

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yong-Hua; Wang, Ian J.; Comes, Hans Peter; Peng, Hua; Qiu, Ying-Xiong

2016-01-01

Examining how historical and contemporary geographic and environmental factors contribute to genetic divergence at different evolutionary scales is a central yet largely unexplored question in ecology and evolution. Here, we examine this key question by investigating how environmental and geographic factors across different epochs have driven genetic divergence at deeper (phylogeographic) and shallower (landscape genetic) evolutionary scales in the Chinese Tertiary relict tree Emmenopterys henryi. We found that geography played a predominant role at all levels – phylogeographic clades are broadly geographically structured, the deepest levels of divergence are associated with major geological or pre-Quaternary climatic events, and isolation by distance (IBD) primarily explained population genetic structure. However, environmental factors are clearly also important – climatic fluctuations since the Last Interglacial (LIG) have likely contributed to phylogeographic structure, and the population genetic structure (in our AFLP dataset) was partly explained by isolation by environment (IBE), which may have resulted from natural selection in environments with divergent climates. Thus, historical and contemporary geography and historical and contemporary environments have all shaped patterns of genetic structure in E. henryi, and, in fact, changes in the landscape through time have also been critical factors. PMID:27137438

Contributions of historical and contemporary geographic and environmental factors to phylogeographic structure in a Tertiary relict species, Emmenopterys henryi (Rubiaceae).

PubMed

Zhang, Yong-Hua; Wang, Ian J; Comes, Hans Peter; Peng, Hua; Qiu, Ying-Xiong

2016-05-03

Examining how historical and contemporary geographic and environmental factors contribute to genetic divergence at different evolutionary scales is a central yet largely unexplored question in ecology and evolution. Here, we examine this key question by investigating how environmental and geographic factors across different epochs have driven genetic divergence at deeper (phylogeographic) and shallower (landscape genetic) evolutionary scales in the Chinese Tertiary relict tree Emmenopterys henryi. We found that geography played a predominant role at all levels - phylogeographic clades are broadly geographically structured, the deepest levels of divergence are associated with major geological or pre-Quaternary climatic events, and isolation by distance (IBD) primarily explained population genetic structure. However, environmental factors are clearly also important - climatic fluctuations since the Last Interglacial (LIG) have likely contributed to phylogeographic structure, and the population genetic structure (in our AFLP dataset) was partly explained by isolation by environment (IBE), which may have resulted from natural selection in environments with divergent climates. Thus, historical and contemporary geography and historical and contemporary environments have all shaped patterns of genetic structure in E. henryi, and, in fact, changes in the landscape through time have also been critical factors.

Trend and variability in western and central Africa streamflow, and major drivers of variability between 1950 and 2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieppois, B.; Sidibe, M.; Mahe, G. M.; Paturel, J. E.; Anifowose, B. A.; Lawler, D.; Amoussou, E.

2017-12-01

Unprecedented drought episodes that struck western and central Africa between the late 1960s and 1980s, triggered many studies investigating rainfall variability and its impacts on water resources and food production systems. However, most studies were focused at the catchment scale. In this study, we aim at investigating the key large-scale controls determining and modulating climate-river flows relationships at the subcontinental scale between 1950 and 2005. Using the first complete monthly streamflow data set (1950-2005) over western and central Africa, streamflow trend and variability are seasonally assessed at this subcontinental scale and compared to those observed in other hydroclimatic variables (precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration). Long-term trends and variability in streamflow are mainly consistent with trends in rainfall. In particular, the recent post-1990s partial recovery in Sahel rainfall could have, at least partially, positively impacted river flows (e.g. the Senegal and Niger rivers). However, these relationships may have been moderated by: i) changes in land use; and ii) contributions from groundwater resources. In addition, the time-evolution of river flows is shown to be primarily driven by very strong decadal fluctuations, which can be interpreted as modulations in the baseflow, as determined using multi-temporal trend and continuous wavelet analysis. These decadal fluctuations, which are also significantly detected in rainfall, are likely related to large-scale sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns (such as the tropical Atlantic SST variability, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation), which are together modulating the West African monsoon. Furthermore, influences of the catchment properties (e.g. size, vegetation and land use cover, soil properties, direction of stream flow across climate zones) on these decadal fluctuations in river flows have been examined. This study therefore aims to improve the ability of current global to regional climate models to simulate such ranges of variability and understand regional hydroclimate, as a means for improving the development of future scenarios for water resources in western and central Africa.

Short-wavelength plasma turbulence and temperature anisotropy instabilities: Recent computational progress

DOE PAGES

Gary, S. Peter

2015-04-06

Plasma turbulence consists of an ensemble of enhanced, broadband electromagnetic fluctuations, typically driven by multi-wave interactions which transfer energy in wavevector space via non- linear cascade processes. In addition, temperature anisotropy instabilities in collisionless plasmas are driven by quasi-linear wave–particle interactions which transfer particle kinetic energy to field fluctuation energy; the resulting enhanced fluctuations are typically narrowband in wavevector magnitude and direction. Whatever their sources, short-wavelength fluctuations are those at which charged particle kinetic, that is, velocity-space, properties are important; these are generally wavelengths of the order of or shorter than the ion inertial length or the thermal ion gyroradius.more » The purpose of this review is to summarize and interpret recent computational results concerning short-wavelength plasma turbulence, short-wavelength temperature anisotropy instabilities and relationships between the two phenomena.« less

Evaluation of regional climate simulations for air quality modelling purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menut, Laurent; Tripathi, Om P.; Colette, Augustin; Vautard, Robert; Flaounas, Emmanouil; Bessagnet, Bertrand

2013-05-01

In order to evaluate the future potential benefits of emission regulation on regional air quality, while taking into account the effects of climate change, off-line air quality projection simulations are driven using weather forcing taken from regional climate models. These regional models are themselves driven by simulations carried out using global climate models (GCM) and economical scenarios. Uncertainties and biases in climate models introduce an additional "climate modeling" source of uncertainty that is to be added to all other types of uncertainties in air quality modeling for policy evaluation. In this article we evaluate the changes in air quality-related weather variables induced by replacing reanalyses-forced by GCM-forced regional climate simulations. As an example we use GCM simulations carried out in the framework of the ERA-interim programme and of the CMIP5 project using the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace climate model (IPSLcm), driving regional simulations performed in the framework of the EURO-CORDEX programme. In summer, we found compensating deficiencies acting on photochemistry: an overestimation by GCM-driven weather due to a positive bias in short-wave radiation, a negative bias in wind speed, too many stagnant episodes, and a negative temperature bias. In winter, air quality is mostly driven by dispersion, and we could not identify significant differences in either wind or planetary boundary layer height statistics between GCM-driven and reanalyses-driven regional simulations. However, precipitation appears largely overestimated in GCM-driven simulations, which could significantly affect the simulation of aerosol concentrations. The identification of these biases will help interpreting results of future air quality simulations using these data. Despite these, we conclude that the identified differences should not lead to major difficulties in using GCM-driven regional climate simulations for air quality projections.

Microbial lime-mud production and its relation to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yates, K.K.; Robbins, L.L.; Gerhard, L.C.; Harrison, W.E.; Hanson, B.M.B.

2001-01-01

Microbial calcification has been identified as a significant source of carbonate sediment production in modern marine and lacustrine environments around the globe. This process has been linked to the production of modern whitings and large, micritic carbonate deposits throughout the geologic record. Furthermore, carbonate deposits believed to be the result of cyanobacterial and microalgal calcification suggest that the potential exists for long-term preservation of microbial precipitates and storage of carbon dioxide (CO2). Recent research has advanced our understanding of the microbial-calcification mechanism as a photosynthetically driven process. However, little is known of the effects of this process on inorganic carbon cycling or of the effects of changing climate on microbial-calcification mechanisms.Laboratory experiments on microbial cellular physiology demonstrate that cyanobacteria and green algae can utilize different carbon species for metabolism and calcification. Cyanobacterial calcification relies on bicarbonate (HCO3–)utilization while green algae use primarily CO2. Therefore, depending on which carbonate species (HCO3– or CO2) dominates in the ocean or lacustrine environments (a condition ultimately linked to atmospheric partial pressure PCO2), the origin of lime-mud production by cyanobacteria and/or algae may fluctuate through geologic time. Trends of cyanobacteria versus algal dominance in the rock record corroborate this conclusion. These results suggest that relative species abundances of calcareous cyanobacteria and algae in the Phanerozoic may serve as potential proxies for assessing paleoclimatic conditions, including fluctuations in atmospheric PCO2.

Large fluctuations of dissolved oxygen in the Indian and Pacific oceans during Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations caused by variations of North Atlantic Deep Water subduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmittner, A.; Galbraith, E.D.; Hostetler, S.W.; Pedersen, Thomas F.; Zhang, R.

2007-01-01

Paleoclimate records from glacial Indian and Pacific oceans sediments document millennial-scale fluctuations of subsurface dissolved oxygen levels and denitrification coherent with North Atlantic temperature oscillations. Yet the mechanism of this teleconnection between the remote ocean basins remains elusive. Here we present model simulations of the oxygen and nitrogen cycles that explain how changes in deepwater subduction in the North Atlantic can cause large and synchronous variations of oxygen minimum zones, throughout the Northern Hemisphere of the Indian and Pacific oceans, consistent with the paleoclimate records. Cold periods in the North Atlantic are associated with reduced nutrient delivery to the upper Indo-Pacific oceans, thereby decreasing productivity. Reduced export production diminishes subsurface respiration of organic matter leading to higher oxygen concentrations and less denitrification. This effect of reduced oxygen consumption dominates at low latitudes. At high latitudes in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific, increased mixed layer depths and steepening of isopycnals improve ocean ventilation and oxygen supply to the subsurface. Atmospheric teleconnections through changes in wind-driven ocean circulation modify this basin-scale pattern regionally. These results suggest that changes in the Atlantic Ocean circulation, similar to those projected by climate models to possibly occur in the centuries to come because of anthropogenic climate warming, can have large effects on marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles even in remote areas. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Mid- to late Holocene climate-driven regime shifts inferred from diatom, ostracod and stable isotope records from Lake Son Kol (Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarz, Anja; Turner, Falko; Lauterbach, Stefan; Plessen, Birgit; Krahn, Kim J.; Glodniok, Sven; Mischke, Steffen; Stebich, Martina; Witt, Roman; Mingram, Jens; Schwalb, Antje

2017-12-01

Arid Central Asia represents a key region for understanding climate variability and interactions in the Northern Hemisphere. Patterns and mechanisms of Holocene climate change in arid Central Asia are, however, only partially understood. Multi-proxy data combining diatom, ostracod, sedimentological, geochemical and stable isotope analyses from a ca. 6000-year-old lake sediment core from Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) show distinct and repeated changes in species assemblages. Diatom- and ostracod-inferred conductivity shifts between meso-euhaline and freshwater conditions suggest water balance and regime shifts. Organism-derived data are corroborated by stable isotope, mineralogical and geochemical records, underlining that Son Kol was affected by strong lake level fluctuations of several meters. The δ13Ccarb/δ18Ocarb correlation shows repeated switchovers from a closed to an open lake system. From 6000 to 3800 and 3250 to 1950 cal. yr BP, Son Kol was a closed basin lake with higher conductivities, increased nutrient availability and a water level located below the modern outflow. Son Kol became again a hydrologically open lake at 3800 and 1950 cal. yr BP. Comparisons to other local and regional paleoclimate records indicate that these regime shifts were largely controlled by changing intensity and position of the Westerlies and the Siberian Anticyclone that triggered changes in the amount of winter precipitation. A strong influence of the Westerlies ca. 5000-4400, 3800-3250 and since 1950 cal. yr BP enhanced the amount of precipitation during spring, autumn and winter, whereas cold and dry winters prevailed during phases with a strong Siberian Anticyclone and southward shifted Westerlies at ca. 6000-5000, 4400-3800 and 3250-1950 cal. yr BP. Similarities between variations in winter precipitation at Son Kol and records of the predominant NAO-mode further suggest a teleconnection between wet (dry) winter climate in Central Asia and a positive (negative) NAO-mode. Thus, this study identifies climate fluctuations as the main driver for hydrological regime shifts in Son Kol controlling physicochemical conditions and consequently causing abrupt species assemblage changes. This emphasizes the importance of multi-proxy approaches to identify triggers, thresholds and cascades of aquatic ecosystem transformations.

Reinvestigating an interval of the English Wealden (non-marine Lower Cretaceous): Integrated analysis for palaeoenvironmental and climate cyclicities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sames, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Although increasing over the last years, relatively few studies on changing palaeoenvironments and climate cycles in non-marine archives of the Cretaceous greenhouse Earth do exist. This is primarily a result of the nature of non-marine or terrestrial deposits - strong lateral facies change on local scales and the strong local to regional control of deposition - as well as the lack of high-resolution stratigraphy and correlations to the marine record. On the other hand, major advances in the refinements of the Cretaceous timescale now facilitate the correlation and dating of short-term sea-level records and their supposable relation to climate and/or tectonic events with appropriate resolution, i.e. on Milankovitch scales. Innovations and progress in non-marine bio-, magneto- and chemostratigraphy as well as growing data on Lower and Upper Cretaceous non-marine successions are promising towards approaches for supraregional correlation of these deposits and their appropriate correlation to the Cretaceous marine standard sections. However, convincing evidence for orbitally (climate) driven cyclicity in non-marine Lower Cretaceous deposits is thus far sparse. The non-marine Wealden deposits of England have been used eponymous for widely distributed similar Lower Cretaceous non-marine facies, and they are a 'classical' example for a Mesozoic non-marine succession for which depositional cycles have been suggested since the 1970s, including the famous ostracod 'faunicycles' by F.W. Anderson, but so far lack convincing analyses and remain to be tested. The project 'Lower Cretaceous Climate and Non-marine Stratigraphy (LCCNS)' funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) analyses a chosen interval of the English Wealden at the Clock House Brickworks pit (near Capel, Surrey, England, UK) for orbitally/climate driven cyclicities with an interdisciplinary methodology: micropalaeontology, sedimentology, and geochemistry. Ostracod (aquatic microcrustaceans with calcified shell) faunal composition changes are correlated with the variation of geochemical and sedimentological parameters through time to draw conclusions regarding the controlling (palaeoenvironmental) factors and their regulating mechanisms ('climate changes', orbital cycles?), while magnetostratigraphy is used for chronological control. First results will be presented here. The crucial point of the approach is that the fluctuating evolution of a Wealden ecosystem over time is presumed to be climatically (and thus, orbitally) controlled and that the cyclic changes deducible from multiple proxies in its geologic record can be tested and used for cyclostratigraphy.

Numerical simulations of current generation and dynamo excitation in a mechanically forced turbulent flow.

PubMed

Bayliss, R A; Forest, C B; Nornberg, M D; Spence, E J; Terry, P W

2007-02-01

The role of turbulence in current generation and self-excitation of magnetic fields has been studied in the geometry of a mechanically driven, spherical dynamo experiment, using a three-dimensional numerical computation. A simple impeller model drives a flow that can generate a growing magnetic field, depending on the magnetic Reynolds number Rm=micro0sigmaVa and the fluid Reynolds number Re=Vanu of the flow. For Re<420, the flow is laminar and the dynamo transition is governed by a threshold of Rmcrit=100, above which a growing magnetic eigenmode is observed that is primarily a dipole field transverse to the axis of symmetry of the flow. In saturation, the Lorentz force slows the flow such that the magnetic eigenmode becomes marginally stable. For Re>420 and Rm approximately 100 the flow becomes turbulent and the dynamo eigenmode is suppressed. The mechanism of suppression is a combination of a time varying large-scale field and the presence of fluctuation driven currents (such as those predicted by the mean-field theory), which effectively enhance the magnetic diffusivity. For higher Rm, a dynamo reappears; however, the structure of the magnetic field is often different from the laminar dynamo. It is dominated by a dipolar magnetic field aligned with the axis of symmetry of the mean-flow, which is apparently generated by fluctuation-driven currents. The magnitude and structure of the fluctuation-driven currents have been studied by applying a weak, axisymmetric seed magnetic field to laminar and turbulent flows. An Ohm's law analysis of the axisymmetric currents allows the fluctuation-driven currents to be identified. The magnetic fields generated by the fluctuations are significant: a dipole moment aligned with the symmetry axis of the mean-flow is generated similar to those observed in the experiment, and both toroidal and poloidal flux expulsion are observed.

Do GCM's predict the climate.... Or the low frequency weather?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, S.; Schertzer, D.; Varon, D.

2012-04-01

Over twenty-five years ago, a three-regime scaling model was proposed describing the statistical variability of the atmosphere over time scales ranging from weather scales out to ≈ 100 kyrs. Using modern in situ data reanalyses, monthly surface series (at 5ox5o), 8 "multiproxy" (yearly) series of the Northern hemisphere from 1500 - 1980, and GRIP and Vostok paleotemperatures at 5.2 and ≈ 100 year resolutions (over the past 91-420 kyrs), we refine the model and show how it can be understood with the help of new developments in nonlinear dynamics, especially multifractals and cascades. In a scaling range, mean fluctuations in state variables such as temperature ΔT vary in power law manners ≈ Δt**H the where Δt is the duration. At small (weather) scales the fluctuation exponents are generally H>0; they grow with scale (Δt). At longer scales Δt >τw (≈ 10 days) H changes sign, the fluctuations decrease with scale; this is the low variability, "low frequency weather" regime. In this regime, the spectrum is a relatively flat "plateau", it's variability is low, stable, corresponding to our usual idea of "long term weather statistics". Finally for longer times, Δt>τc ≈ 10 - 100 years, once again H>0, so that the variability increases with scale: the true climate regime. These scaling regimes allow us to objectively define the weather as fluctuations over periods <τw, to define "climate states" as fluctuations at scale τc and then "climate change" as the fluctuations at longer periods (Δt>τc). We show that the intermediate low frequency weather regime is the result of the weather regime undergoing a "dimensional transition": at temporal scales longer than the typical lifetime of planetary structures (τw), the spatial degrees of freedom are rapidly quenched so that only the temporal degrees of freedom are important. This low frequency weather regime has statistical properties well reproduced not only by stochastic cascade models of weather, but also by control runs (i.e. without climate forcing) of GCM based climate forecasting systems including those of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (Paris) and the Earth Forecasting System (Hamburg). In order for these systems to go beyond simply predicting low frequency weather i.e. in order for them to predict the climate, they need appropriate climate forcings and/ or new internal mechanisms of variability. Using statistical scaling techniques we examine the scale dependence of fluctuations from forced and unforced GCM outputs, including from the ECHO-G and EFS simulations in the Millenium climate reconstruction project and compare this with data, multiproxies and paleo data. Our general conclusion is that the models systematically underestimate the multidecadal, multicentennial scale variability.

Dispersion of Self-Propelled Rods Undergoing Fluctuation-Driven Flips

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takagi, Daisuke; Braunschweig, Adam B.; Zhang, Jun; Shelley, Michael J.

2013-01-01

Synthetic microswimmers may someday perform medical and technological tasks, but predicting their motion and dispersion is challenging. Here we show that chemically propelled rods tend to move on a surface along large circles but curiously show stochastic changes in the sign of the orbit curvature. By accounting for fluctuation-driven flipping of slightly curved rods, we obtain analytical predictions for the ensemble behavior in good agreement with our experiments. This shows that minor defects in swimmer shape can yield major long-term effects on macroscopic dispersion.

Short-scale turbulent fluctuations driven by the electron-temperature gradient in the national spherical torus experiment.

PubMed

Mazzucato, E; Smith, D R; Bell, R E; Kaye, S M; Hosea, J C; LeBlanc, B P; Wilson, J R; Ryan, P M; Domier, C W; Luhmann, N C; Yuh, H; Lee, W; Park, H

2008-08-15

Measurements with coherent scattering of electromagnetic waves in plasmas of the National Spherical Torus Experiment indicate the existence of turbulent fluctuations in the range of wave numbers k perpendicular rho(e)=0.1-0.4, corresponding to a turbulence scale length nearly equal to the collisionless skin depth. Experimental observations and agreement with numerical results from a linear gyrokinetic stability code support the conjecture that the observed turbulence is driven by the electron-temperature gradient.

Changes in transport and confinement in the EXTRAP-T2 reversed field pinch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sallander, E.; Sallander, J.; Hedqvist, A.

1999-09-01

At the EXTRAP-T2 reversed field pinch a non-intrusive approach has been undertaken to monitor transport driven by magnetic fluctuations. Correlations are presented between fluctuations observed in the core and at the edge of the plasma. The fluctuations are characterized and their effect on the confinement of core electron energy is estimated.

Shock wave oscillation driven by turbulent boundary layer fluctuations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plotkin, K. J.

1972-01-01

Pressure fluctuations due to the interaction of a shock wave with a turbulent boundary layer were investigated. A simple model is proposed in which the shock wave is convected from its mean position by velocity fluctuations in the turbulent boundary layer. Displacement of the shock is assumed limited by a linear restoring mechanism. Predictions of peak root mean square pressure fluctuation and spectral density are in excellent agreement with available experimental data.

Elastically driven intermittent microscopic dynamics in soft solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouzid, Mehdi; Colombo, Jader; Barbosa, Lucas Vieira; Del Gado, Emanuela

2017-06-01

Soft solids with tunable mechanical response are at the core of new material technologies, but a crucial limit for applications is their progressive aging over time, which dramatically affects their functionalities. The generally accepted paradigm is that such aging is gradual and its origin is in slower than exponential microscopic dynamics, akin to the ones in supercooled liquids or glasses. Nevertheless, time- and space-resolved measurements have provided contrasting evidence: dynamics faster than exponential, intermittency and abrupt structural changes. Here we use 3D computer simulations of a microscopic model to reveal that the timescales governing stress relaxation, respectively, through thermal fluctuations and elastic recovery are key for the aging dynamics. When thermal fluctuations are too weak, stress heterogeneities frozen-in upon solidification can still partially relax through elastically driven fluctuations. Such fluctuations are intermittent, because of strong correlations that persist over the timescale of experiments or simulations, leading to faster than exponential dynamics.

Exploring late Miocene climate stability: constraining background variability using high-resolution benthic δ18O and δ13C records from Site U1338

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drury, A.; John, C. M.; Lee, G.; Shevenell, A.

2012-12-01

The late Miocene (11.61 - 5.33 Ma) was one of the more stable climatic periods of the Cenozoic. Superimposed on this stable background climate, a number of threshold events occurred, including the late Miocene Carbon Isotope Shift (CIS, 7.6-6.6 Ma) and the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC, 5.96-5.33 Ma). The goal of our study is to constrain the background climate cyclicity during the late Miocene. A better knowledge of the background cyclicity in the Earth's climate system is required to advance understanding of, and to successfully model, climate variability. Improving understanding of how changes in background climate variability affect important parameters and fluxes, such as ice volume and the carbon pump, is crucial for explaining the occurrence of threshold events such as the CIS and MSC during an otherwise climatically stable period. The study site is located in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (IODP Site U1338, Expedition 321). U1338 was chosen, as the equatorial Pacific is an important component of the global climate system, representing half of the total tropical ocean and a quarter of the global ocean. We present δ18O and δ13C records from 3.5 to 8.5 Ma using the benthic foraminiferal species Cibicidoides mundulus, with a resolution of 3-4 kyr, which resolves all Milankovitch scale cycles. We present a revised shipboard age model, generated from new biostratigraphic age constraints based on planktic foraminiferal datums. Benthic δ18O records at IODP Site U1338 reflect the stable nature of the late Miocene climate accurately, with long-term trends showing low-amplitude (0.2‰) variations. Superimposed on this are higher-amplitude short-term fluctuations (0.3-0.4‰). Deep-sea benthic foraminferal δ18O records both temperature and the δ18O composition of global deep seawater (δ18Odsw). δ18Odsw largely reflects glacio-eustatic change. Our benthic δ18O implies that long-term trends in ice volume were minimal during the late Miocene. However, the short-term variations imply that some significant sea level fluctuations occurred. The benthic δ13C long-term trend varies by ~0.75‰. The late Miocene CIS is visible as a ~1.25‰ excursion. Short-term fluctuations in δ13C record are slightly lower amplitude (~0.50‰). Preliminary spectral analysis highlights the strength of the eccentricity forcing (400 and 100-kyr cycles) in both the δ18O and δ13C records. The 41-kyr obliquity cycles are also visible in the δ18O records. The benthic δ13C records are combined with preliminary low-resolution δ13C records measured on the planktic foraminiferal species Globigerinoides sacculifer from the same samples. Co-varying benthic-planktic δ13C is driven by changes in the ocean reservoir δ13C, whereas con/diverging benthic-planktic δ13C is related to changes in surface productivity. This initial comparison may shed some light on the forcing of the CIS, and the implications for late Miocene climate. Future work will combine benthic δ18O with independent temperature proxies, such as Mg/Ca and clumped isotopes, to isolate the δ18Odsw signal and make more robust inferences about the background cryosphere dynamics during this time. We will also increase the resolution of the planktic foraminiferal records to enable comparison of the dominant forcing in the benthic and planktic records.

Symmetry breaking, phase separation and anomalous fluctuations in driven granular gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meerson, Baruch; Pöschel, Thorsten; Sasorov, Pavel V.; Schwager, Thomas

2003-03-01

What is the role of noise, caused by the discrete nature of particles, in granular dynamics? We address this question by considering a simple driven granular system: an ensemble of nearly elastically colliding hard spheres in a rectangular box, driven by a rapidly vibrating side wall at zero gravity. The elementary state of this system is a strip of enhanced particle density away from the driving wall. Granular hydrodynamics (GHD) predicts a symmetry breaking instability of this state, when the aspect ratio of the confining box exceeds a threshold value, while the average density of the gas is within a ``spinodal interval". At large aspect ratios this instability leads to phase separation similar to that in van der Waals gas. In the present work (see cond-mat/0208286) we focus on the system behavior around the threshold of the symmetry-breaking instability. We put GHD into a quantitative test by performing extensive event-driven molecular dynamic simulations in 2D. Please watch the movies of the simulations at http://summa.physik.hu-berlin.de/ kies/HD/. We found that the supercritical bifurcation curve, predicted by GHD, agrees with the simulations well below and well above the instability threshold. In a wide region of aspect ratios around the threshold the system is dominated by fluctuations. We checked that the fluctuation strength goes down when the number of particles increases. However, fluctuations remain strong (and the critical region wide) even for as many as 4 ot 10^4 particles. We conclude by suggesting that fluctuations may put a severe limitation on the validity of continuum theories of granular flow in systems with a moderately large number of particles.

Insects in fluctuating thermal environments.

PubMed

Colinet, Hervé; Sinclair, Brent J; Vernon, Philippe; Renault, David

2015-01-07

All climate change scenarios predict an increase in both global temperature means and the magnitude of seasonal and diel temperature variation. The nonlinear relationship between temperature and biological processes means that fluctuating temperatures lead to physiological, life history, and ecological consequences for ectothermic insects that diverge from those predicted from constant temperatures. Fluctuating temperatures that remain within permissive temperature ranges generally improve performance. By contrast, those which extend to stressful temperatures may have either positive impacts, allowing repair of damage accrued during exposure to thermal extremes, or negative impacts from cumulative damage during successive exposures. We discuss the mechanisms underlying these differing effects. Fluctuating temperatures could be used to enhance or weaken insects in applied rearing programs, and any prediction of insect performance in the field-including models of climate change or population performance-must account for the effect of fluctuating temperatures.

People On The Move: Some Thoughts On Human Dispersal In Relation To Rapid Climatic Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, W.

It is still generally assumed that the default situation for past humans must have been to be sedentary. That is to say, given a chance people would have settled in one area (with a good supply of resources) and established clearly-defined territories. Such concepts presuppose that much of human existence was conducted in climatic conditions sim- ilar to the relatively stable ones seen in the Holocene. What effects do rapid climatic fluctuations have upon environmental carrying capacity, and thus upon human mobil- ity and exploitation patterns? Such an approach could be called 'non-analogue', as it does not seek to impose [current] Holocene patterns upon the Pleistocene, in the same way that 'non-analogue' animal and plant communities are now routinely described for the same period. If one adopts non-analogue perspectives, perhaps one could also argue that in many cases mobility was the rule and not the exception. Turning the conventional wisdom around, we can ask why people should remain in an area. What are the characteristics of that area which could have encouraged people to become less mobile? I do not argue that all groups were mobile: some cannot have been, and not every member of other groups would have been equally mobile (differentiation on grounds of age and sex). In addition, mobility patterns must also have varied over time, although we should not necessarily expect a discernible linear trend either towards or away from greater mobility, because such behaviour operates within a climatic and environmental framework as well as a socio-economic one. If climate oscillated rapidly, it is feasible to suggest that such fluctuations affected environmental stability and thus carrying capacity. The resource species present and their availability would therefore affect the possibilities for human mobility. When discussing the possibilities for human dispersal into new regions, we essentially have a choice between two competing models: the Wave of Advance (sensu Boserup, Cavalli-Svorza &Ammermann) or Directional dispersal. The former model posits a slow, group-fission-based dispersal across the landscape, driven by 'push' factors such as population pressure. We should not expect resources to be evenly-distributed across the landscape, and thus if one adopts a Wave of Advance interpretation, one would have to consider the possibility of rapid, directional jumps between favoured resource 1 patches, seriously damaging the model's viability. On the other hand, Directional dis- persal models expect more focused movement, with certain ecotones (such as rivers or coasts) being preferred, and are driven more by 'pull' factors which draw people across the landscape relatively rapidly. In the latter model, 'infill' occupation between the initially occupied areas can occur if demanded by socio-economic requirements of the group[s]. This paper will explore all these issues, and discuss how we might identify and test them in the archaeological record, and set them in the climatic context. The effects of climatic factors on past human behaviour have to be qualified or discounted before we can really start to discuss social or 'cultural' explanations. 2

Ice sheet climate modeling: past achievements, ongoing challenges, and future endeavors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenaerts, J.

2017-12-01

Fluctuations in surface mass balance (SMB) mask out a substantial portion of contemporary Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. That implies that we need accurate, consistent, and long-term SMB time series to isolate the mass loss signal. This in turn requires understanding of the processes driving SMB, and how they interplay. The primary controls on present-day ice sheet SMB are snowfall, which is regulated by large-scale atmospheric variability, and surface meltwater production at the ice sheet's edges, which is a complex result of atmosphere-surface interactions. Additionally, wind-driven snow redistribution and sublimation are large SMB contributors on the downslope areas of the ice sheets. Climate models provide an integrated framework to simulate all these individual ice sheet components. Recent developments in RACMO2, a regional climate model bound by atmospheric reanalyses, have focused on enhancing horizontal resolution, including blowing snow, snow albedo, and meltwater processes. Including these physics not only enhanced our understanding of the ice sheet climate system, but also enabled to obtain increasingly accurate estimates of ice sheet SMB. However, regional models are not suitable to capture the mutual interactions between ice sheet and the remainder of the global climate system in transient climates. To take that next step, global climate models are essential. In this talk, I will highlight our present work on improving ice sheet climate in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In particular, we focus on an improved representation of polar firn, ice sheet clouds, and precipitation. For this exercise, we extensively use field observations, remote sensing data, as well as RACMO2. Next, I will highlight how CESM is used to enhance our understanding of ice sheet SMB, its drivers, and past and present changes.

Influence of climate on malaria transmission depends on daily temperature variation.

PubMed

Paaijmans, Krijn P; Blanford, Simon; Bell, Andrew S; Blanford, Justine I; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B

2010-08-24

Malaria transmission is strongly influenced by environmental temperature, but the biological drivers remain poorly quantified. Most studies analyzing malaria-temperature relations, including those investigating malaria risk and the possible impacts of climate change, are based solely on mean temperatures and extrapolate from functions determined under unrealistic laboratory conditions. Here, we present empirical evidence to show that, in addition to mean temperatures, daily fluctuations in temperature affect parasite infection, the rate of parasite development, and the essential elements of mosquito biology that combine to determine malaria transmission intensity. In general, we find that, compared with rates at equivalent constant mean temperatures, temperature fluctuation around low mean temperatures acts to speed up rate processes, whereas fluctuation around high mean temperatures acts to slow processes down. At the extremes (conditions representative of the fringes of malaria transmission, where range expansions or contractions will occur), fluctuation makes transmission possible at lower mean temperatures than currently predicted and can potentially block transmission at higher mean temperatures. If we are to optimize control efforts and develop appropriate adaptation or mitigation strategies for future climates, we need to incorporate into predictive models the effects of daily temperature variation and how that variation is altered by climate change.

Dynamic phases, pinning, and pattern formation for driven dislocation assemblies

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Caizhi; Reichhardt, Charles; Olson Reichhardt, Cynthia J.; ...

2015-01-23

We examine driven dislocation assemblies and show that they can exhibit a set of dynamical phases remarkably similar to those of driven systems with quenched disorder such as vortices in superconductors, magnetic domain walls, and charge density wave materials. These phases include pinned-jammed, fluctuating, and dynamically ordered states, and each produces distinct dislocation patterns as well as specific features in the noise fluctuations and transport properties. Lastly, our work suggests that many of the results established for systems with quenched disorder undergoing plastic depinning transitions can be applied to dislocation systems, providing a new approach for understanding pattern formation andmore » dynamics in these systems.« less

Simulation of a Driven Dense Granular Gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bizon, Chris; Shattuck, M. D.; Swift, J. B.; Swinney, Harry L.

1998-11-01

Event driven particle simulations quantitatively reproduce the experimental results on vibrated granular layers, including the formation of standing wave patterns(C. Bizon, M.D. Shattuck, J.B. Swift, W.D. McCormick, and H.L. Swinney, Phys. Rev. Lett. 80), pp. 57-60 (1998). and secondary instabilities(J.R. deBruyn, C. Bizon, M.D. Shattuck, D. Goldman, J.B. Swift, and H.L. Swinney, Phys. Rev. Lett. 81) (1998), to appear. . In these simulations the velocity distributions are nearly Gaussian when scaled with the local fluctuational kinetic energy (granular temperature); this suggests that inelastic dense gas kinetic theory is applicable. We perform simulations of a two-dimensional granular gas that is homogeneously driven with fluctuating forces. We find that the equation of state differs from that of an elastic dense gas and that this difference is due to a change in the distribution of relative velocities at collisions. Granular thermal conductivity and viscosity are measured by allowing the fluctuating forces to have large scale spatial gradients.

Effects of extreme climatic events on small-scale spatial patterns: a 20-year study of the distribution of a desert spider.

PubMed

Birkhofer, Klaus; Henschel, Joh; Lubin, Yael

2012-11-01

Individuals of most animal species are non-randomly distributed in space. Extreme climatic events are often ignored as potential drivers of distribution patterns, and the role of such events is difficult to assess. Seothyra henscheli (Araneae, Eresidae) is a sedentary spider found in the Namib dunes in Namibia. The spider constructs a sticky-edged silk web on the sand surface, connected to a vertical, silk-lined burrow. Above-ground web structures can be damaged by strong winds or heavy rainfall, and during dispersal spiders are susceptible to environmental extremes. Locations of burrows were mapped in three field sites in 16 out of 20 years from 1987 to 2007, and these grid-based data were used to identify the relationship between spatial patterns, climatic extremes and sampling year. According to Morisita's index, individuals had an aggregated distribution in most years and field sites, and Geary's C suggests clustering up to scales of 2 m. Individuals were more aggregated in years with high maximum wind speed and low annual precipitation. Our results suggest that clustering is a temporally stable property of populations that holds even under fluctuating burrow densities. Climatic extremes, however, affect the intensity of clustering behaviour: individuals seem to be better protected in field sites with many conspecific neighbours. We suggest that burrow-site selection is driven at least partly by conspecific cuing, and this behaviour may protect populations from collapse during extreme climatic events.

Formation of most of our coal brought Earth close to global glaciation

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The bulk of Earth’s coal deposits used as fossil fuel today was formed from plant debris during the late Carboniferous and early Permian periods. The high burial rate of organic carbon correlates with a significant drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) at that time. A recent analysis of a high-resolution record reveals large orbitally driven variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration between ∼150 and 700 ppm for the latest Carboniferous and very low values of 100 ± 80 ppm for the earliest Permian. Here, I explore the sensitivity of the climate around the Carboniferous/Permian boundary to changes in Earth’s orbital parameters and in atmospheric CO2 using a coupled climate model. The coldest orbital configurations are characterized by large axial tilt and small eccentricities of Earth’s elliptical orbit, whereas the warmest configuration occurs at minimum tilt, maximum eccentricity, and a perihelion passage during Northern hemisphere spring. Global glaciation occurs at CO2 concentrations <40 ppm, suggesting a rather narrow escape from a fully glaciated Snowball Earth state given the low levels and large fluctuations of atmospheric CO2. These findings highlight the importance of orbital cycles for the climate and carbon cycle during the late Paleozoic ice age and the climatic significance of the fossil carbon stored in Earth’s coal deposits. PMID:29073052

The frequency response of a coupled ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean system to climate forcing variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D.; Snow, K.; Jordan, J. R.; Holland, P.; Arthern, R. J.

2017-12-01

Changes at the West Antarctic ice-ocean boundary in recent decades has triggered significant increases in the regions contribution to global sea-level rise, coincident with large scale, and in some cases potentially unstable, grounding line retreat. Much of the induced change is thought to be driven by fluctuations in the oceanic heat available at the ice-ocean boundary, transported on-shelf via warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). However, the processes in which ocean heat drives ice-sheet loss remains poorly understood, with observational studies routinely hindered by the extreme environment notorious to the Antarctic region. In this study we apply a novel synchronous coupled ice-ocean model, developed within the MITgcm, and are thus able to provide detailed insight into the impacts of short time scale (interannual to decadal) climate variability and feedbacks within the ice-ocean system. Feedbacks and response are assessed in an idealised ice-sheet/ocean-cavity configuration in which the far field ocean condition is adjusted to emulate periodic climate variability patterns. We reveal a non-linear response of the ice-sheet to periodic variations in thermocline depth. These non-linearities illustrate the heightened sensitivity of fast flowing ice-shelves to periodic perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at interannual and decadal time scales. The results thus highlight how small perturbations in variable climate forcing, like that of ENSO, may trigger large changes in ice-sheet response.

Fluctuation-driven price dynamics and investment strategies

PubMed Central

Li, Yan; Zheng, Bo; Chen, Ting-Ting; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

2017-01-01

Investigation of the driven mechanism of the price dynamics in complex financial systems is important and challenging. In this paper, we propose an investment strategy to study how dynamic fluctuations drive the price movements. The strategy is successfully applied to different stock markets in the world, and the result indicates that the driving effect of the dynamic fluctuations is rather robust. We investigate how the strategy performance is influenced by the market states and optimize the strategy performance by introducing two parameters. The strategy is also compared with several typical technical trading rules. Our findings not only provide an investment strategy which extends investors’ profits, but also offer a useful method to look into the dynamic properties of complex financial systems. PMID:29240783

Fluctuation-driven price dynamics and investment strategies.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Zheng, Bo; Chen, Ting-Ting; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

2017-01-01

Investigation of the driven mechanism of the price dynamics in complex financial systems is important and challenging. In this paper, we propose an investment strategy to study how dynamic fluctuations drive the price movements. The strategy is successfully applied to different stock markets in the world, and the result indicates that the driving effect of the dynamic fluctuations is rather robust. We investigate how the strategy performance is influenced by the market states and optimize the strategy performance by introducing two parameters. The strategy is also compared with several typical technical trading rules. Our findings not only provide an investment strategy which extends investors' profits, but also offer a useful method to look into the dynamic properties of complex financial systems.

Event-by-event elliptic flow fluctuations from PHOBOS

DOE PAGES

Wosiek, Barbara; Alver, B.; Back, B. B.; ...

2009-04-01

Recently PHOBOS has focused on the study of fluctuations and correlations in particle production in heavy-ion collisions at the highest energies delivered by the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). In this report, we present results on event-by-event elliptic flow fluctuations in Au + Au collisions at √s NN =200 GeV. A data-driven method was used to estimate the dominant contribution from non-flow correlations. Over the broad range of collision centralities, the observed large elliptic flow fluctuations are in agreement with the fluctuations in the initial source eccentricity.

Event-by-Event Elliptic Flow Fluctuations from PHOBOS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wosiek, B.; Alver, B.; Back, B. B.; Baker, M. D.; Ballintijn, M.; Barton, D. S.; Betts, R. R.; Bickley, A. A.; Bindel, R.; Busza, W.; Carroll, A.; Chai, Z.; Chetluru, V.; Decowski, M. P.; García, E.; Gburek, T.; George, N.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Halliwell, C.; Hamblen, J.; Harnarine, I.; Hauer, M.; Henderson, C.; Hofman, D. J.; Hollis, R. S.; Hołyński, R.; Holzman, B.; Iordanova, A.; Johnson, E.; Kane, J. L.; Khan, N.; Kulinich, P.; Kuo, C. M.; Li, W.; Lin, W. T.; Loizides, C.; Manly, S.; Mignerey, A. C.; Nouicer, R.; Olszewski, A.; Pak, R.; Reed, C.; Richardson, E.; Roland, C.; Roland, G.; Sagerer, J.; Seals, H.; Sedykh, I.; Smith, C. E.; Stankiewicz, M. A.; Steinberg, P.; Stephans, G. S. F.; Sukhanov, A.; Szostak, A.; Tonjes, M. B.; Trzupek, A.; Vale, C.; van Nieuwenhuizen, G. J.; Vaurynovich, S. S.; Verdier, R.; Veres, G. I.; Walters, P.; Wenger, E.; Willhelm, D.; Wolfs, F. L. H.; Woźniak, K.; Wyngaardt, S.; Wysłouch, B.

2009-04-01

Recently PHOBOS has focused on the study of fluctuations and correlations in particle production in heavy-ion collisions at the highest energies delivered by the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). In this report, we present results on event-by-event elliptic flow fluctuations in (Au+Au) collisions at sqrt {sNN}=200 GeV. A data-driven method was used to estimate the dominant contribution from non-flow correlations. Over the broad range of collision centralities, the observed large elliptic flow fluctuations are in agreement with the fluctuations in the initial source eccentricity.

Electromagnetic turbulence and transport in increased β LAPD Plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Giovanni; Carter, Troy; Pueschel, Mj; Jenko, Frank; Terry, Paul; Told, Daniel

2016-10-01

The new LaB6 plasma source in LAPD has enabled the production of magnetized, increased β plasmas (up to 15%). We report on the modifications of pressure-gradient-driven turbulence and transport with increased plasma β. Density fluctuations decrease with increasing β while magnetic fluctuations increase. B ⊥ fluctuations saturate while parallel (compressional) magnetic fluctuations increase continuously with β. At the highest β values Î δ ||/ δ B ⊥ 2 and δ B/B 1%. The measurements are consistent with the excitation of the Gradient-driven Drift Coupling (GDC). This instability prefers k|| = 0 and grows in finite β plasmas due to density and temperature gradients through the production of parallel magnetic field fluctuations and resulting ⊥ B|| drifts. Comparisons between experimental measurements and theoretical predictions for the GDC will be shown. Direct measurements of electrostatic particle flux have been performed and show a strong reduction with increasing β. No evidence is found (e.g. density profile shape) of enhanced confinement, suggesting that other transport mechanisms are active. Preliminary measurements indicate that electromagnetic transport due to parallel magnetic field fluctuations at first increases with β but is subsequently suppressed at higher β values.

Sporadic sampling, not climatic forcing, drives observed early hominin diversity.

PubMed

Maxwell, Simon J; Hopley, Philip J; Upchurch, Paul; Soligo, Christophe

2018-05-08

The role of climate change in the origin and diversification of early hominins is hotly debated. Most accounts of early hominin evolution link observed fluctuations in species diversity to directional shifts in climate or periods of intense climatic instability. None of these hypotheses, however, have tested whether observed diversity patterns are distorted by variation in the quality of the hominin fossil record. Here, we present a detailed examination of early hominin diversity dynamics, including both taxic and phylogenetically corrected diversity estimates. Unlike past studies, we compare these estimates to sampling metrics for rock availability (hominin-, primate-, and mammal-bearing formations) and collection effort, to assess the geological and anthropogenic controls on the sampling of the early hominin fossil record. Taxic diversity, primate-bearing formations, and collection effort show strong positive correlations, demonstrating that observed patterns of early hominin taxic diversity can be explained by temporal heterogeneity in fossil sampling rather than genuine evolutionary processes. Peak taxic diversity at 1.9 million years ago (Ma) is a sampling artifact, reflecting merely maximal rock availability and collection effort. In contrast, phylogenetic diversity estimates imply peak diversity at 2.4 Ma and show little relation to sampling metrics. We find that apparent relationships between early hominin diversity and indicators of climatic instability are, in fact, driven largely by variation in suitable rock exposure and collection effort. Our results suggest that significant improvements in the quality of the fossil record are required before the role of climate in hominin evolution can be reliably determined. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Forced and Internal Multi-Decadal Variability in the North Atlantic and their Climate Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ting, M.

2017-12-01

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), a basin-wide North Atlantic sea surface temperature warming or cooling pattern varying on decadal and longer time scales, is one of the most important climate variations in the Atlantic basin. The AMV has shown to be associated with significant climate impacts regionally and globally, from Atlantic hurricane activities, frequency and severity of droughts across North America, as well as rainfall anomalies across the African Sahel and northeast Brazil. Despite the important impacts of the AMV, its mechanisms are not completely understood. In particular, it is not clear how much of the historical Atlantic SST fluctuations were forced by anthropogenic sources such as greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling, versus driven internally by changes in the coupled ocean-atmosphere processes in the Atlantic. Using climate models such as the NCAR large ensemble simulations, we were able to successfully separate the forced and internally generated North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies through a signal-to-noise maximizing Empirical Orthogonal Function (S/N EOF) analysis method. Two forced modes were identified with one representing a hemispherical symmetric mode and one asymmetric mode. The symmetric mode largely represents the greenhouse forced component while the asymmetric mode resembles the anthropogenic aerosol forcing. When statistically removing both of the forced modes, the residual multidecadal Atlantic SST variability shows a very similar structure as the AMV in the preindustrial simulation. The distinct climate impacts of each of these modes are also identified and the implications and challenges for decadal climate prediction will be discussed.

Atmosphere-biosphere exchange of CO2 and O3 in the Central Amazon Forest

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fan, Song-Miao; Wofsy, Steven C.; Bakwin, Peter S.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Fitzjarrald, David R.

1990-01-01

An eddy correlation measurement of O3 deposition and CO2 exchange at a level 10 m above the canopy of the Amazon forest, conducted as part of the NASA/INPE ABLE2b mission during the wet season of 1987, is presented. It was found that the ecosystem exchange of CO2 undergoes a well-defined diurnal variation driven by the input of solar radiation. A curvilinear relationship was found between solar irradiance and uptake of CO2, with net CO2 uptake at a given solar irradiance equal to rates observed over forests in other climate zones. The carbon balance of the system appeared sensitive to cloud cover on the time scale of the experiment, suggesting that global carbon storage might be affected by changes in insolation associated with tropical climate fluctuations. The forest was found to be an efficient sink for O3 during the day, and evidence indicates that the Amazon forests could be a significant sink for global ozone during the nine-month wet period and that deforestation could dramatically alter O3 budgets.

Holocene multi-proxy environmental reconstruction from lake Hakluytvatnet, Amsterdamøya Island, Svalbard (79.5°N)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gjerde, Marthe; Bakke, Jostein; D'Andrea, William J.; Balascio, Nicholas L.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Vasskog, Kristian; Ólafsdóttir, Sædis; Røthe, Torgeir O.; Perren, Bianca B.; Hormes, Anne

2018-03-01

High resolution proxy records of past climate are sparse in the Arctic due to low organic production that restricts the use of radiocarbon dating and challenging logistics that make data collection difficult. Here, we present a new lake record from lake Hakluytvatnet at Amsterdamøya island (79.5°N), the northwesternmost island on Svalbard. Multi-proxy analyses of lake sediments in combination with geomorphological mapping reveal large environmental shifts that have taken place at Amsterdamøya during the Holocene. A robust chronology has been established for the lake sediment core through 28 AMS radiocarbon ages, and this gives an exceptionally well-constrained age control for a lake at this latitude. The Holocene was a period with large changes in the Hakluytvatnet catchment, and the onset of the Neoglacial (ca. 5 ka) marks the start of modern-day conditions in the catchment. The Neoglacial is characterized by fluctuations in the minerogenic input to the lake as well as internal productivity, and we suggest that these fluctuations are driven by atmospherically forced precipitation changes as well as sea ice extent modulating the amount of moisture that can reach Hakluytvatnet.

The relationship between mammal faunas and climatic instability since the Last Glacial Maximum: A Nearctic vs. Western Palearctic comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres-Romero, Erik Joaquín; Varela, Sara; Fisher, Jason T.; Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Á.

2017-07-01

Climate has played a key role in shaping the geographic patterns of biodiversity. The imprint of Quaternary climatic fluctuations is particularly evident on the geographic distribution of Holarctic faunas, which dramatically shifted their ranges following the alternation of glacial-interglacial cycles during the Pleistocene. Here, we evaluate the existence of differences between climatically stable and unstable regions - defined on the basis of climatic change velocity since the Last Glacial Maximum - in the geographic distribution of several biological attributes of extant terrestrial mammals of the Nearctic and Western Palearctic regions. Specifically, we use a macroecological approach to assess the dissimilarities in species richness, range size, body size, longevity and litter size of species that inhabit regions with contrasting histories of climatic stability. While several studies have documented how the distributional ranges of animals can be affected by long-term historic climatic fluctuations, there is less evidence on the species-specific traits that determine their responsiveness under such climatic instability. We find that climatically unstable areas have more widespread species and lower mammal richness than stable regions in both continents. We detected stronger signatures of historical climatic instability on the geographic distribution of body size in the Nearctic region, possibly reflecting lagged responses to recolonize deglaciated regions. However, the way that animals respond to climatic fluctuations varies widely among species and we were unable to find a relationship between climatic instability and other mammal life-history traits (longevity and litter size) in any of the two biogeographic regions. We, therefore, conclude that beyond some biological traits typical of macroecological analyses such as geographic range size and body size, it is difficult to infer the responsiveness of species distributions to climate change solely based on particular life-history traits.

Suppression of MHD fluctuations leading to improved confinement in a gun-driven spheromak.

PubMed

McLean, H S; Woodruff, S; Hooper, E B; Bulmer, R H; Hill, D N; Holcomb, C; Moller, J; Stallard, B W; Wood, R D; Wang, Z

2002-03-25

Magnetic fluctuations have been reduced to approximately 1% during discharges on the Sustained Spheromak Physics Experiment by shaping the spatial distribution of the bias magnetic flux in the device. In the resulting quiescent regime, the safety factor profile is nearly flat in the plasma and the dominant ideal and resistive MHD modes are greatly reduced. During this period, the temperature profile is peaked at the magnetic axis and maps onto magnetic flux contours. Energy confinement time is improved over previous reports in a driven spheromak.

A Community Perspective on the Effects of Climate Change on Species Distributions in the Boreal Forest of the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morelli, T. L.; DeLuca, W. V.; Duclos, T. R.; Foster, J. R.; Siren, A. P.

2016-12-01

The way that climate change will impact species ranges through habitat change and modify species interactions is not well enough understood. We took a community view of the climate-vulnerable, biologically-important spruce-fir forest ecosystem of the northeastern U.S., examining if and how species are responding to warming and changing precipitation patterns. We examined how fluctuations in temperature and snowpack influence distributional shifts along elevational and latitudinal gradients; for example, milder winter conditions may allow generalist carnivores such as bobcats to access boreal forest habitat, increasing direct and indirect competition with Canada lynx and American marten for prey. In another example of climate-driven predation shifts, upslope shifts of American red squirrels may increase predation rates on vulnerable montane songbirds. We combined data from weather stations with model-based high resolution data to obtain information on historical and present climate variables. We forecasted spruce-fir forest extent using landscape and ecosystem models under a combination of global circulation model projections and representative concentration pathways for the northern Appalachians. Presence and abundance data from animal surveys were used to build occupancy models to assess the habitat, climate, and species relationships. Species responded individually with geographic variation in response within and across species. Some species closely tracked climate changes, whereas others showed no response, or even responses such as shifts southward that were counter to what would be expected. For example, although low elevation boreal bird species showed evidence of expanding upslope, most high elevation species expanded downslope. This work highlights the need to take a mechanistic perspective of species responses to climate change and avoid generalizations of simple shifts northward and upward. Understanding how climate change affects community dynamics will improve predictions of how individual species will respond to climate change. These predictions then provide information about how distributional shifts will occur in a biologically critical ecosystem and if there will be climate change refugia they can target for management.

Improved management of small pelagic fisheries through seasonal climate prediction.

PubMed

Tommasi, Désirée; Stock, Charles A; Pegion, Kathleen; Vecchi, Gabriel A; Methot, Richard D; Alexander, Michael A; Checkley, David M

2017-03-01

Populations of small pelagic fish are strongly influenced by climate. The inability of managers to anticipate environment-driven fluctuations in stock productivity or distribution can lead to overfishing and stock collapses, inflexible management regulations inducing shifts in the functional response to human predators, lost opportunities to harvest populations, bankruptcies in the fishing industry, and loss of resilience in the human food supply. Recent advances in dynamical global climate prediction systems allow for sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly predictions at a seasonal scale over many shelf ecosystems. Here we assess the utility of SST predictions at this "fishery relevant" scale to inform management, using Pacific sardine as a case study. The value of SST anomaly predictions to management was quantified under four harvest guidelines (HGs) differing in their level of integration of SST data and predictions. The HG that incorporated stock biomass forecasts informed by skillful SST predictions led to increases in stock biomass and yield, and reductions in the probability of yield and biomass falling below socioeconomic or ecologically acceptable levels. However, to mitigate the risk of collapse in the event of an erroneous forecast, it was important to combine such forecast-informed harvest controls with additional harvest restrictions at low biomass. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Space-based Ornithology-Studying Bird Migration and Environmental Change in North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, James; Deppe, Jill

2008-01-01

Natural fluctuations in the availability of critical stopover sites coupled with anthropogenic destruction of wetlands, land-use change, and anticipated losses due to climate change present migratory birds with a formidable challenge. We have developed an individual-based, spatially explicit bird migration model that simulates the migration routes, timing and energy budgets of individual birds under dynamic weather and land surface conditions. Our model incorporates biophysical constraints, individual bird energy status, bird behavior, and flight aerodynamics. We model the speed, direction, and timing of individual birds moving through a user specified Lagrangian grid. The model incorporates environmental properties including wind speed and direction, topography, dynamic hydrologic properties of the landscape, and environmental suitability. The model is driven by important variables estimated from satellite observations of the land surface, by data assimilation products from weather and climate models, and biological field data. We illustrate the use of the model to study the impact of both short- and long-term environmental variatios, e.g. climate, drought, anthropogenic, on migration timing (phenology), spatial pattern, and fitness (survival and reproductive success). We present several theoretical simulations of the spring migration of Pectoral Sandpiper (Calidris melanotos) in North America with emphasis on the Central flyway from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska.

A multi-year comparison of IPCI scores for prairie pothole wetlands: implications of temporal and spatial variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euliss, Ned H.; Mushet, David M.

2011-01-01

In the prairie pothole region of North America, development of Indices of Biotic Integrity (IBIs) to detect anthropogenic impacts on wetlands has been hampered by naturally dynamic inter-annual climate fluctuations. Of multiple efforts to develop IBIs for prairie pothole wetlands, only one, the Index of Plant Community Integrity (IPCI), has reported success. We evaluated the IPCI and its ability to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic variation using plant community data collected from 16 wetlands over a 4-year-period. We found that under constant anthropogenic influence, IPCI metric scores and condition ratings varied annually in response to environmental variation driven primarily by natural climate variation. Artificially forcing wetlands that occur along continuous hydrologic gradients into a limited number of discrete classes (e.g., temporary, seasonal, and semi-permanent) further confounded the utility of IPCI metrics. Because IPCI scores vary significantly due to natural climate dynamics as well as human impacts, methodology must be developed that adequately partitions natural and anthropogenically induced variation along continuous hydrologic gradients. Until such methodology is developed, the use of the IPCI to evaluate prairie pothole wetlands creates potential for misdirected corrective or regulatory actions, impairment of natural wetland functional processes, and erosion of public confidence in the wetland sciences.

Climate and geochemistry as drivers of eucalypt diversification in Australia.

PubMed

Bui, E N; Thornhill, A H; González-Orozco, C E; Knerr, N; Miller, J T

2017-05-01

Eucalypts cover most of Australia. Here, we investigate the relative contribution of climate and geochemistry to the distribution and diversity of eucalypts. Using geostatistics, we estimate major element concentrations, pH, and electrical conductivity at sites where eucalypts have been recorded. We compare the median predicted geochemistry and reported substrate for individual species that appear associated with extreme conditions; this provides a partial evaluation of the predictions. We generate a site-by-species matrix by aggregating observations to the centroids of 100-km-wide grid cells, calculate diversity indices, and use numerical ecology methods (ordination, variation partitioning) to investigate the ecology of eucalypts and their response to climatic and geochemical gradients. We find that β-diversity coincides with variations in climatic and geochemical patterns. Climate and geochemistry together account for less than half of the variation in eucalypt species assemblages across Australia but for greater than 80% in areas of high species richness. Climate is more important than geochemistry in explaining eucalypts species distribution and change in assemblages across Australia as a whole but there are correlations between the two sets of environmental variables. Many individual eucalypt species and entire taxonomic sections (Aromatica, Longistylus of subgenus Eucalyptus, Dumaria, and Liberivalvae of subgenus Symphyomyrtus) have distributions affected strongly by geochemistry. We conclude that eucalypt diversity is driven by steep geochemical gradients that have arisen as climate patterns have fluctuated over Australia over the Cenozoic, generally aridifying since the Miocene. The diversification of eucalypts across Australia is thus an excellent example of co-evolution of landscapes and biota in space and time and challenges accepted notions of macroecology. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effect of climatic forcing on population synchrony and genetic structuring of the Canadian lynx

PubMed Central

Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Rueness, Eli Knispel; Lingjærde, Ole Chr.; Chan, Kung-Sik; Boutin, Stan; O'Donoghue, Mark; Robinson, David A.; Viljugrein, Hildegunn; Jakobsen, Kjetill S.

2004-01-01

The abundance of Canadian lynx follows 10-year density fluctuations across the Canadian subcontinent. These cyclic fluctuations have earlier been shown to be geographically structured into three climatic regions: the Atlantic, Continental, and Pacific zones. Recent genetic evidence revealed an essentially similar spatial structuring. Introducing a new population model, the “climate forcing of ecological and evolutionary patterns” model, we link the observed ecological and evolutionary patterns. Specifically, we demonstrate that there is greater phase synchrony within climatic zones than between them and show that external climatic forcing may act as a synchronizer. We simulated genetic drift by using data on population dynamics generated by the climate forcing of ecological and evolutionary patterns model, and we demonstrate that the observed genetic structuring can be seen as an emerging property of the spatiotemporal ecological dynamics. PMID:15067131

GRADFLEX: Fluctuations in Microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vailati, A.; Cerbino, R.; Mazzoni, S.; Giglio, M.; Nikolaenko, G.; Cannell, D. S.; Meyer, W. V.; Smart, A. E.

2004-01-01

We present the results of experimental investigations of gradient driven fluctuations induced in a liquid mixture with a concentration gradient and in a single-component fluid with a temperature gradient. We also describe the experimental apparatus being developed to carry out similar measurement under microgravity conditions.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

Science.gov Websites

Tropical Marine Fire Weather Forecast Maps Unified Surface Analysis Climate Climate Prediction Climate forecasts of hazardous flight conditions at all levels within domestic and international air space. Climate Prediction Center monitors and forecasts short-term climate fluctuations and provides information on the

The influence of the La Niña-El Niño cycle on giant mud crab (Scylla serrata) catches in Northern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meynecke, Jan-Olaf; Grubert, Mark; Arthur, James Michael; Boston, Ray; Lee, Shing Yip

2012-03-01

Mud crabs (Scylla spp.) are a high value commodity harvested in the Indo-West Pacific. Scylla species support important artisanal fisheries in south-east Asia and intensive commercial fisheries in Australia where the market demand and catch has increased markedly over the last decade. Over-fishing of Scylla spp. has been observed at varying levels throughout its distribution. Fluctuations in catch rates and abundance are thought to be driven by climate parameters. Here we analyse monthly, seasonal and annual patterns in catch and effort data (from 1990 to 2008) for the commercial giant mud crab (Scylla serrata) fishery in the Northern Territory, Australia, with corresponding climatic data (rainfall, freshwater runoff, sea surface temperature) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as an indicator of La Niña/El Niño events. Between 30 and 40% of the variation in catch per unit effort can be explained by rainfall and SOI alone. This result was supported by linear mixed models which identified SOI as the main contributor to the model. Spectral analyses showed that catch peaks coincided with a four year La Niña cycle. One- and two-year time lags (consistent with S. Serrata's life cycle) were also significantly correlated to SOI values and rainfall. These outcomes may assist fishery managers in planning fishing exposure period and duration. Furthermore, findings of this study provide information on the vulnerability of S. serrata to fluctuations in environmental conditions and can help to apply protective measures when and where necessary.

Holocene Glacier Fluctuations in the Peruvian Andes Indicate Northern Climate Linkages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Licciardi, Joseph M.; Schaefer, Joerg M.; Taggart, Jean R.; Lund, David C.

2009-09-01

The role of the tropics in triggering, transmitting, and amplifying interhemispheric climate signals remains a key debate in paleoclimatology. Tropical glacier fluctuations provide important insight on regional paleoclimatic trends and forcings, but robust chronologies are scarce. Here, we report precise moraine ages from the Cordillera Vilcabamba (13°20‧S) of southern Peru that indicate prominent glacial events and associated climatic shifts in the outer tropics during the early Holocene and late in the “Little Ice Age” period. Our glacier chronologies differ from the New Zealand record but are broadly correlative with well-dated glacial records in Europe, suggesting climate linkages between the tropics and the North Atlantic region.

Climate teleconnections, weather extremes, and vector-borne disease outbreaks

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fluctuations in climate lead to extremes in temperature, rainfall, flooding, and droughts. These climate extremes create ideal ecological conditions that promote mosquito-borne disease transmission that impact global human and animal health. One well known driver of such global scale climate fluctua...

Does Change in the Arctic Sea Ice Indicate Climate Change? A Lesson Using Geospatial Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bock, Judith K.

2011-01-01

The Arctic sea ice has not since melted to the 2007 extent, but annual summer melt extents do continue to be less than the decadal average. Climate fluctuations are well documented by geologic records. Averages are usually based on a minimum of 10 years of averaged data. It is typical for fluctuations to occur from year to year and season to…

Climatic Changes in the East-European Forest-Steppe and Effects on Scots Pine Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matveev, S. M.; Chendev, Yu. G.; Lupo, A. R.; Hubbart, J. A.; Timashchuk, D. A.

2017-01-01

Climate change during the 20th and early 21st centuries in the transitional zone between forests and grasslands at the center of the East-European Plain (Voronezh oblast) was determined by examining climate trends and variability using tree ring radial increment data as representative of productivity. An increase in atmospheric moisture for the warm period of the year (May-September) since 1890s, and mean annual temperatures since the 1950s was identified. During the same time period, there was a marked increase in amplitude of the annual variations for temperature and precipitation. Study results revealed trends, variability in the climatic indices, and corresponding radial wood increment for the regional stands of Pinus sylvestris L. These fluctuations are consistent with 10-12-years Schwabe-Wolf, 22-years Hale, and the 32-36-years Bruckner Solar Cycles. There was an additional relationship found between high-frequency (short-period) climate fluctuations, lasting for about three years, and 70-90-years fluctuations of the moisture regime in the study region corresponding to longer cycles. The results of this study can help guide management decisions in the study region and elsewhere, especially where climate change induced alterations to the state and productivity of forest ecosystems and associated natural resource commodities are of growing concern.

Fluctuating hydrodynamics, current fluctuations, and hyperuniformity in boundary-driven open quantum chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carollo, Federico; Garrahan, Juan P.; Lesanovsky, Igor; Pérez-Espigares, Carlos

2017-11-01

We consider a class of either fermionic or bosonic noninteracting open quantum chains driven by dissipative interactions at the boundaries and study the interplay of coherent transport and dissipative processes, such as bulk dephasing and diffusion. Starting from the microscopic formulation, we show that the dynamics on large scales can be described in terms of fluctuating hydrodynamics. This is an important simplification as it allows us to apply the methods of macroscopic fluctuation theory to compute the large deviation (LD) statistics of time-integrated currents. In particular, this permits us to show that fermionic open chains display a third-order dynamical phase transition in LD functions. We show that this transition is manifested in a singular change in the structure of trajectories: while typical trajectories are diffusive, rare trajectories associated with atypical currents are ballistic and hyperuniform in their spatial structure. We confirm these results by numerically simulating ensembles of rare trajectories via the cloning method, and by exact numerical diagonalization of the microscopic quantum generator.

Fluctuating hydrodynamics, current fluctuations, and hyperuniformity in boundary-driven open quantum chains.

PubMed

Carollo, Federico; Garrahan, Juan P; Lesanovsky, Igor; Pérez-Espigares, Carlos

2017-11-01

We consider a class of either fermionic or bosonic noninteracting open quantum chains driven by dissipative interactions at the boundaries and study the interplay of coherent transport and dissipative processes, such as bulk dephasing and diffusion. Starting from the microscopic formulation, we show that the dynamics on large scales can be described in terms of fluctuating hydrodynamics. This is an important simplification as it allows us to apply the methods of macroscopic fluctuation theory to compute the large deviation (LD) statistics of time-integrated currents. In particular, this permits us to show that fermionic open chains display a third-order dynamical phase transition in LD functions. We show that this transition is manifested in a singular change in the structure of trajectories: while typical trajectories are diffusive, rare trajectories associated with atypical currents are ballistic and hyperuniform in their spatial structure. We confirm these results by numerically simulating ensembles of rare trajectories via the cloning method, and by exact numerical diagonalization of the microscopic quantum generator.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

2016-01-15

We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Paleoclimate records at high latitude in Arctic during the Paleogene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salpin, Marie; Schnyder, Johann; Baudin, François; Suan, Guillaume; Labrousse, Loïc; Popescu, Speranta; Suc, Jean-Pierre

2015-04-01

Paleoclimate records at high latitude in Arctic during the Paleogene SALPIN Marie1,2, SCHNYDER Johann1,2, BAUDIN François1,2, SUAN Guillaume3, LABROUSSE Loïc1,2, POPESCU Speranta4, SUC Jean-Pierre1,4 1: Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, UMR 7193, Institut des Sciences de la Terre Paris (iSTeP), F 75005, Paris, France 2: CNRS, UMR 7193, Institut des Sciences de la Terre Paris (iSTeP), F 75005 Paris, France 3: UCB Lyon 1, UMR 5276, LGLTPE, 69622 Villeurbanne Cedex, France 4: GEOBIOSTRATDATA.CONSULTING, 385 Route du Mas Rillier 69140 Rillieux la Pape, France The Paleogene is a period of important variations of the Earth climate system either in warming or cooling. The climatic optima of the Paleogene have been recognized both in continental and marine environment. This study focus on high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, in the Arctic Basin. The basin has had an influence on the Cenozoic global climate change according to its polar position. Is there a specific behaviour of the Arctic Basin with respect to global climatic stimuli? Are there possible mechanisms of coupling/decoupling of its dynamics with respect to the global ocean? To answer these questions a unique collection of sedimentary series of Paleogene age interval has been assembled from the Laurentian margin in Northern Yukon (Canada) and from the Siberian margin (New Siberian Islands). Selected continental successions of Paleocene-Eocene age were used to study the response of the Arctic system to known global events, e.g. the climatic optima of the Paleogene (the so-called PETM, ETM2 or the Azolla events). Two sections of Paleocene-Eocene age were sampled near the Mackenzie delta, the so-called Coal Mine (CoMi) and Caribou Hills (CaH) sections. The aim of the study is to precise the climatic fluctuations and to characterise the source rock potential of the basin, eventually linked to the warming events. This study is based on data of multi-proxy analyses: mineralogy on bulk and clay fraction, Rock-Eval pyrolysis, palynology, palynofacies, carbon isotopes. The organic matter of the two sections is dominated by Type III kerogens. First results from palynology and clay minerals proportions suggest episodes of warming that could be compared to similar warming intervals recorded on the Siberian margin. In addition, in the northern Yukon the mineralogical results suggests fluctuations of the local detrital sources, either driven by tectonic or eustatism, that could be surimposed on the climatic patterns.

Dynamic Structure Factor and Transport Coefficients of a Homogeneously Driven Granular Fluid in Steady State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vollmayr-Lee, Katharina; Zippelius, Annette; Aspelmeier, Timo

2011-03-01

We study the dynamic structure factor of a granular fluid of hard spheres, driven into a stationary nonequilibrium state by balancing the energy loss due to inelastic collisions with the energy input due to driving. The driving is chosen to conserve momentum, so that fluctuating hydrodynamics predicts the existence of sound modes. We present results of computer simulations which are based on an event driven algorithm. The dynamic structure factor F (q , ω) is determined for volume fractions 0.05, 0.1 and 0.2 and coefficients of normal restitution 0.8 and 0.9. We observe sound waves, and compare our results for F (q , ω) with the predictions of generalized fluctuating hydrodynamics which takes into account that temperature fluctuations decay either diffusively or with a finite relaxation rate, depending on wave number and inelasticity. We determine the speed of sound and the transport coefficients and compare them to the results of kinetic theory. K.V.L. thanks the Institute of Theoretical Physics, University of Goettingen, for financial support and hospitality.

Environmental forcing on jellyfish communities in a small temperate estuary.

PubMed

Primo, Ana Lígia; Marques, Sónia C; Falcão, Joana; Crespo, Daniel; Pardal, Miguel A; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M

2012-08-01

The impact of biological, hydrodynamic and large scale climatic variables on the jellyfish community of Mondego estuary was evaluated from 2003 to 2010. Plankton samples were collected at the downstream part of the estuary. Siphonophora Muggiaea atlantica and Diphyes spp. were the main jellyfish species. Jellyfish density was generally higher in summer and since 2005 densities had increased. Summer community analysis pointed out Acartia clausi, estuarine temperature and salinity as the main driven forces for the assemblage's structure. Also, Chl a, estuarine salinity, runoff and SST were identified as the major environmental factors influencing the siphonophores summer interannual variability. Temperature influenced directly and indirectly the community and fluctuation of jellyfish blooms in the Mondego estuary. This study represents a contribution to a better knowledge of the gelatinous plankton communities in small temperate estuaries. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reconstruction and paleoclimatic significance of Late Pleistocene niche glaciation at Mt Aston, Tararua Range, North Island, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brook, Martin

2017-04-01

Evidence for the timing of inter-hemispheric climate fluctuations during the Pleistocene is important, with reconstructed mountain glacier extents routinely used as a proxy for climate. While valley glaciers extended out from an ice sheet centred on New Zealand's Southern Alps during Pleistocene climate cooling to below present-day sea level, evidence of former glacial activity on the North Island of New Zealand is rare, in comparison. A newly-identified glaciated site is Mt Aston, an isolated cirque-like basin within the Tararua Range on New Zealand's North Island. Previously published cosmogenic isotope ages and paleo-glacier reconstructions of a 3 km-long valley glacier 30 km to the north show that paleo-equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) increased northwards across New Zealand during the regional last glacial maximum (LGM). Hence, at this latitude (41˚ 00' S), only topography >1300 m above present day sea-level was of feasible elevation to intersect the prevailing south-westerly airflow and to allow niche glaciers to form. In the basin below Mt Aston, a c. 0.38 km2 cirque glacier existed with ELA of c. 1290 ± 10 m above present-day sea level. This paleo-ELA closely approximates the extrapolated ELA trend surface for the regional LGM. The mean glacier thickness of 35 m gives a maximum basal shear stress of c. 102 kPa-1, with a mean January temperature at the ELA of c. 5.5 ˚ C. It is well-established that present-day glaciers in New Zealand are particularly sensitive to climate change, manifested by glacial advances and retreats in response to simple mass balance dynamics. Consistent with this, the paleo-glacier reconstruction implies that rather than simple temperature decreases driving paleo-ELA depression, changes in south-westerly airflow over New Zealand, bringing moisture-laden but cool air, maximized snowfall and minimised winter melt. The corollary is that (1) patterns of Pleistocene glacier fluctuations may be interpreted as responses, in-part, to precipitation-driven changes, and (2) the extent of LGM glaciation on New Zealand's North Island was probably more extensive than previously assumed.

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and Sand Fly Fluctuations Are Associated with El Niño in Panamá

PubMed Central

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Calzada, José E.; Valderrama, Anayansí; Saldaña, Azael

2014-01-01

Background Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease. Sand fly vectors (SF) and Leishmania spp parasites are sensitive to changes in weather conditions, rendering disease transmission susceptible to changes in local and global scale climatic patterns. Nevertheless, it is unclear how SF abundance is impacted by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and how these changes might relate to changes in CL transmission. Methodology and Findings We studied association patterns between monthly time series, from January 2000 to December 2010, of: CL cases, rainfall and temperature from Panamá, and an ENSO index. We employed autoregressive models and cross wavelet coherence, to quantify the seasonal and interannual impact of local climate and ENSO on CL dynamics. We employed Poisson Rate Generalized Linear Mixed Models to study SF abundance patterns across ENSO phases, seasons and eco-epidemiological settings, employing records from 640 night-trap sampling collections spanning 2000–2011. We found that ENSO, rainfall and temperature were associated with CL cycles at interannual scales, while seasonal patterns were mainly associated with rainfall and temperature. Sand fly (SF) vector abundance, on average, decreased during the hot and cold ENSO phases, when compared with the normal ENSO phase, yet variability in vector abundance was largest during the cold ENSO phase. Our results showed a three month lagged association between SF vector abundance and CL cases. Conclusion Association patterns of CL with ENSO and local climatic factors in Panamá indicate that interannual CL cycles might be driven by ENSO, while the CL seasonality was mainly associated with temperature and rainfall variability. CL cases and SF abundance were associated in a fashion suggesting that sudden extraordinary changes in vector abundance might increase the potential for CL epidemic outbreaks, given that CL epidemics occur during the cold ENSO phase, a time when SF abundance shows its highest fluctuations. PMID:25275503

Quantitative estimates of Mid- to late Holocene Climate Variability in northeastern Siberia inferred from chironomids in lake sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazarova, Larisa; Diekmann, Bernhard; Pestrjakova, Ludmila; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Subetto, Dmitry

2010-05-01

Yakutia (Russia, northeastern part of Eurasia) represents one of Earths most extreme climatic settings in the world with deep-reaching frozen ground and a semiarid continental climate with highest seasonal temperature contrasts in the northern hemisphere. The amplitude of temperature variations around the year sometimes exceeds 100oC. There are few examples of quantitative palaeoecological studies in Siberia and these data have to be tested by quantitative studies from other sites in this region, inferred from different proxies and using regional calibration datasets and temperature models that are still lacking. Chironomid midges (Insecta, Diptera, Chironomidae) have been widely used to reconstruct past climate variability in many areas of Western Europe and North America. A chironomid-mean July air temperature inference model has been developed, based on a modern calibration set of 200 lakes sampled along a transect from 110° to 159° E and 61° to73° N in northern Russia. The inference model was applied to sediment cores from 2 lakes in the Central Yakutia in order to reconstruct past July air temperatures. The lacustrine records span mid- to late Holocene. The downcore variability in the chironomid assemblages and the composition of organic matter give evidence of climate-driven and interrelated changes in biological productivity, lacustrine trophic states, and lake-level fluctuations. Three phases of the climate development in Central Yakutia can be derived from the geochemical composition of the lake cores and according to the inferred from chironomid assemblages mean July air ToC. Content of organic matters reached maximal values in the period between 7000-4500 yBP. Sedimentation rate is especially high, numerous molluscs shells are found in sediments. All this along with the reconstructed air temperature confirmed that Mid Holocene optimum in Central Yakutia took place in this period with the maximal temperatures up to 4oC above present day ToC. Strong faunistic changes take place after 4500 yBP. Temperature reconstruction has shown that around 4500 ka BP air temperature went down up to 2oC below modern temperature. These observations confirm end of Holocene climate optimum at this time. The lake status record reveals a long-term trend towards lake-level lowering in the course of climate deterioration after 4.2 cal. ka BP and reduced evaporation as well as progressive sediment infill. This long-term trend is overprinted by short-term fluctuations at centennial time scales with high lake levels and decreased biological productivity during cool climate spells with reduced evaporation, as also observed in modern thermokarst lakes of Central Yakutia.

Nonequilibrium life-cycles in Ocean Heat Content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, Jeffrey B.; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Mandal, Dibyendu; Zia, Royce K. P.

2014-03-01

Natural climate variability can be considered as fluctuations in a nonequilibrium steady state. A fundamental property of nonequilibrium steady states is the phase space current which provides a preferred direction for fluctuations, and is manifested as preferred life-cycles for climate fluctuations. We propose a new quantity, the phase space angular momentum, to quantify the phase space rotation. In analogy with traditional angular momentum, which quantifies the rotation of mass in physical space, the phase space angular momentum quantifies the rotation of probability in phase space. It has the additional advantage that it is straightforward to calculate from a time series. We investigate the phase space angular momentum for fluctuations in ocean heat content in both observations and ocean general circulation models. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the National Science Foundation (USA) under grant OCE 1245944.

Soil Moisture-Atmosphere Feedbacks on Atmospheric Tracers: The Effects of Soil Moisture on Precipitation and Near-Surface Chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tawfik, Ahmed B.

The atmospheric component is described by rapid fluctuations in typical state variables, such as temperature and water vapor, on timescales of hours to days and the land component evolves on daily to yearly timescales. This dissertation examines the connection between soil moisture and atmospheric tracers under varying degrees of soil moisture-atmosphere coupling. Land-atmosphere coupling is defined over the United States using a regional climate model. A newly examined soil moisture-precipitation feedback is identified for winter months extending the previous summer feedback to colder temperature climates. This feedback is driven by the freezing and thawing of soil moisture, leading to coupled land-atmosphere conditions near the freezing line. Soil moisture can also affect the composition of the troposphere through modifying biogenic emissions of isoprene (C5H8). A novel first-order Taylor series decomposition indicates that isoprene emissions are jointly driven by temperature and soil moisture in models. These compounds are important precursors for ozone formation, an air pollutant and a short-lived forcing agent for climate. A mechanistic description of commonly observed relationships between ground-level ozone and meteorology is presented using the concept of soil moisture-temperature coupling regimes. The extent of surface drying was found to be a better predictor of ozone concentrations than temperature or humidity for the Eastern U.S. This relationship is evaluated in a coupled regional chemistry-climate model under several land-atmosphere coupling and isoprene emissions cases. The coupled chemistry-climate model can reproduce the observed soil moisture-temperature coupling pattern, yet modeled ozone is insensitive to changes in meteorology due to the balance between isoprene and the primary atmospheric oxidant, the hydroxyl radical (OH). Overall, this work highlights the importance of soil moisture-atmosphere coupling for previously neglected cold climate regimes, controlling isoprene emissions variability, and providing a processed-based description of observed ozone-meteorology relationships. From the perspective of ozone air quality, the lack of sensitivity of ozone to meteorology suggests a systematic deficiency in chemistry models in high isoprene emission regions. This shortcoming must be addressed to better estimate tropospheric ozone radiative forcing and to understanding how ozone air quality may respond to future warming.

Climate and vegetational regime shifts in the late Paleozoic ice age earth.

PubMed

DiMichele, W A; Montañez, I P; Poulsen, C J; Tabor, N J

2009-03-01

The late Paleozoic earth experienced alternation between glacial and non-glacial climates at multiple temporal scales, accompanied by atmospheric CO2 fluctuations and global warming intervals, often attended by significant vegetational changes in equatorial latitudes of Pangaea. We assess the nature of climate-vegetation interaction during two time intervals: middle-late Pennsylvanian transition and Pennsylvanian-Permian transition, each marked by tropical warming and drying. In case study 1, there is a catastrophic intra-biomic reorganization of dominance and diversity in wetland, evergreen vegetation growing under humid climates. This represents a threshold-type change, possibly a regime shift to an alternative stable state. Case study 2 is an inter-biome dominance change in western and central Pangaea from humid wetland and seasonally dry to semi-arid vegetation. Shifts between these vegetation types had been occurring in Euramerican portions of the equatorial region throughout the late middle and late Pennsylvanian, the drier vegetation reaching persistent dominance by Early Permian. The oscillatory transition between humid and seasonally dry vegetation appears to demonstrate a threshold-like behavior but probably not repeated transitions between alternative stable states. Rather, changes in dominance in lowland equatorial regions were driven by long-term, repetitive climatic oscillations, occurring with increasing intensity, within overall shift to seasonal dryness through time. In neither case study are there clear biotic or abiotic warning signs of looming changes in vegetational composition or geographic distribution, nor is it clear that there are specific, absolute values or rates of environmental change in temperature, rainfall distribution and amount, or atmospheric composition, approach to which might indicate proximity to a terrestrial biotic-change threshold.

New Model for Ionospheric Irregularities at Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keskinen, M. J.

2018-03-01

A new model for ionospheric irregularities at Mars is presented. It is shown that wind-driven currents in the dynamo region of the Martian ionosphere can be unstable to the electromagnetic gradient drift instability. This plasma instability can generate ionospheric density and magnetic field irregularities with scale sizes of approximately 15-20 km down to a few kilometers. We show that the instability-driven magnetic field fluctuation amplitudes relative to background are correlated with the ionospheric density fluctuation amplitudes relative to background. Our results can explain recent observations made by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN spacecraft in the Martian ionosphere dynamo region.

Field-induced reentrant superconductivity driven by quantum tricritical fluctuations in URhGe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokunaga, Y.; Aoki, D.; Mayaffre, H.; Krämer, S.; Julien, M.-H.; Berthier, C.; Horvatić, M.; Sakai, H.; Hattori, T.; Kambe, S.; Araki, S.

2018-05-01

We review our 59Co NMR study in a URhGe single crystal doped with 10% cobalt. The spin-spin relaxation time (T2) measurements have revealed a divergence of electronic spin fluctuations in the vicinity of a field-induced tricritical point (TCP) locating around 13 T. The fluctuations is developed in the same limited field region around the TCP as that where a reentrant superconductivity (RSC) is observed in URhGe. The finding strongly suggests these quantum fluctuations as the pairing glue responsible for the RSC.

Density-Gradient-Driven trapped-electron-modes in improved-confinement RFP plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duff, James; Sarff, John; Ding, Weixing; Brower, David; Parke, Eli; Chapman, Brett; Terry, Paul; Pueschel, M. J.; Williams, Zach

2017-10-01

Short wavelength density fluctuations in improved-confinement MST plasmas exhibit multiple features characteristic of the trapped-electron-mode (TEM). Core transport in the RFP is normally governed by magnetic stochasticity stemming from long wavelength tearing modes that arise from current profile peaking, which are suppressed via inductive control for this work. The improved confinement is associated with an increase in the pressure gradient that can destabilize drift waves. The measured density fluctuations have f 50 kHz, kϕρs < 0.14 , and propagate in the electron drift direction. Their spectral emergence coincides with a sharp decrease in global tearing mode associated fluctuations, their amplitude increases with local density gradient, and they exhibit a density-gradient threshold at R /Ln 15 . The GENE code, modified for the RFP, predicts the onset of density-gradient-driven TEM for these strong-gradient plasma conditions. While nonlinear analysis shows a large Dimits shift associated with predicted strong zonal flows, the inclusion of residual magnetic fluctuations, comparable to experimental magnetic fluctuations, causes a collapse of the zonal flows and an increase in the predicted transport to a level close to the experimentally measured heat flux. Work supported by US DOE.

Long-term trends of phosphorus concentrations in an artificial lake: Socio-economic and climate drivers.

PubMed

Vystavna, Yuliya; Hejzlar, Josef; Kopáček, Jiří

2017-01-01

European freshwater ecosystems have undergone significant human-induced and environmentally-driven variations in nutrient export from catchments throughout the past five decades, mainly in connection with changes in land-use, agricultural practice, waste water production and treatment, and climatic conditions. We analysed the relations among concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in the Slapy Reservoir (a middle reservoir of the Vltava River Cascade, Czechia), and socio-economic and climatic factors from 1963 to 2015. The study was based on a time series analysis, using conventional statistical tools, and the identification of breaking points, using a segmented regression. Results indicated clear long-term trends and seasonal patterns of TP, with annual average TP increasing up until 1991 and decreasing from 1992 to 2015. Trends in annual, winter and spring average TP concentrations reflected a shift in development of sewerage and sanitary infrastructure, agricultural application of fertilizers, and livestock production in the early 1990s that was associated with changes from the planned to the market economy. No trends were observed for average TP in autumn. The summer average TP has fluctuated with increased amplitude since 1991 in connection with recent climate warming, changes in thermal stratification stability, increased water flow irregularities, and short-circuiting of TP-rich inflow during high flow events. The climate-change-induced processes confound the generally declining trend in lake-water TP concentration and can result in eutrophication despite decreased phosphorus loads from the catchment. Our findings indicate the need of further reduction of phosphorus sources to meet ecological quality standards of the EU Water Framework Directive because the climate change may lead to a greater susceptibility of the aquatic ecosystem to the supply of nutrients.

Idiosyncratic responses to climate-driven forest fragmentation and marine incursions in reed frogs from Central Africa and the Gulf of Guinea Islands.

PubMed

Bell, Rayna C; Parra, Juan L; Badjedjea, Gabriel; Barej, Michael F; Blackburn, David C; Burger, Marius; Channing, Alan; Dehling, Jonas Maximilian; Greenbaum, Eli; Gvoždík, Václav; Kielgast, Jos; Kusamba, Chifundera; Lötters, Stefan; McLaughlin, Patrick J; Nagy, Zoltán T; Rödel, Mark-Oliver; Portik, Daniel M; Stuart, Bryan L; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Zassi-Boulou, Ange Ghislain; Zamudio, Kelly R

2017-10-01

Organismal traits interact with environmental variation to mediate how species respond to shared landscapes. Thus, differences in traits related to dispersal ability or physiological tolerance may result in phylogeographic discordance among co-distributed taxa, even when they are responding to common barriers. We quantified climatic suitability and stability, and phylogeographic divergence within three reed frog species complexes across the Guineo-Congolian forests and Gulf of Guinea archipelago of Central Africa to investigate how they responded to a shared climatic and geological history. Our species-specific estimates of climatic suitability through time are consistent with temporal and spatial heterogeneity in diversification among the species complexes, indicating that differences in ecological breadth may partly explain these idiosyncratic patterns. Likewise, we demonstrated that fluctuating sea levels periodically exposed a land bridge connecting Bioko Island with the mainland Guineo-Congolian forest and that habitats across the exposed land bridge likely enabled dispersal in some species, but not in others. We did not find evidence that rivers are biogeographic barriers across any of the species complexes. Despite marked differences in the geographic extent of stable climates and temporal estimates of divergence among the species complexes, we recovered a shared pattern of intermittent climatic suitability with recent population connectivity and demographic expansion across the Congo Basin. This pattern supports the hypothesis that genetic exchange across the Congo Basin during humid periods, followed by vicariance during arid periods, has shaped regional diversity. Finally, we identified many distinct lineages among our focal taxa, some of which may reflect incipient or unrecognized species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting the unpredictable: potential climate change impacts on vegetation in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Marie Oliver; David W. Peterson; Becky Kerns

2016-01-01

Earth's climate is changing, as evidenced by warming temperatures, increased temperature variability, fluctuating precipitation patterns, and climate-related environmental disturbances. And with considerable uncertainty about the future, Forest Service land managers are now considering climate change adaptation in their planning efforts. They want practical...

Climate-driven sediment aggradation and incision phases since the Late Pleistocene in the NW Himalaya, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, Saptarshi; Thiede, Rasmus C.; Schildgen, Taylor F.; Wittmann, Hella; Bookhagen, Bodo; Scherler, Dirk; Jain, Vikrant; Strecker, Manfred R.

2016-04-01

Deciphering the response of sediment routing systems to climatic forcing is fundamental for understanding the impacts of climate change on landscape evolution and depositional systems. In the Sub-Himalaya, late Pleistocene to Holocene alluvial fills and fluvial terraces record periodic fluctuations of sediment supply and transport capacity on timescale of 103 to 105 years, most likely related to past climatic fluctuations. To evaluate the climatic control on sediment supply and transport capacity, we analyze remnant alluvial fans and terraces in the Kangra Basin of the northwestern Sub-Himalaya. Based on field observations and OSL and CRN-dating, we recognized two sedimentary cycles with major sediment aggradation and subsequent re-incision phases. The large one developed over the entire last glacial period with ˜200 m high alluvial fan (AF1) and the second one during the latest Pleistocene/Holocene with ˜50 m alluvial fan (AF2) and its re-incision . Surface-exposure dating of six terrace levels with in-situ cosmogenic nuclides (10Be) indicates the onset of channel abandonment and ensuing incision phases. Two terrace surfaces from the highest level (T1) sculpted into the oldest-preserved AF1 dates back to 48.9 ± 4.1 ka and 42.1 ± 2.7 ka (2σ error). T2 surfaces sculpted into the remnants of AF1 have exposure ages of 16.8 ± 2 ka and 14.1 ± 0.9 ka, while terraces sculpted into the late Pleistocene- Holocene fan (AF2) provide ages of 8.4± 0.8 ka, 6.6± 0.7 ka, 4.9± 0.4 ka and 3.1± 0.3 ka. Together with previously-published ages on the timing of aggradation, we find a correlation between variations in sediment transport with oxygen-isotope records from regions affected by Indian Summer Monsoon. During stronger monsoon phases and post-LGM glacial retreat manifested by increased sediment delivery (moraines and hillslope-derived) to the trunk streams, causing aggradation in the basin; whereas, weakened monsoon phases characterized by reduced sediment-delivery from the hillslope or moraines resulted into incision of the transiently-stored sediments. Sediment cycles in the Kangra Basin are largely synchronous with those documented from other NW Himalayan valleys.

Ion-driven instabilities in the solar wind: Wind observations of 19 March 2005

DOE PAGES

Gary, S. Peter; Jian, Lan K.; Broiles, Thomas W.; ...

2016-01-16

Intervals of enhanced magnetic fluctuations have been frequently observed in the solar wind. However, it remains an open question as to whether these waves are generated at the Sun and then transported outward by the solar wind or generated locally in the interplanetary medium. Magnetic field and plasma measurements from the Wind spacecraft under slow solar wind conditions on 19 March 2005 demonstrate seven events of enhanced magnetic fluctuations at spacecraft-frame frequencies somewhat above the proton cyclotron frequency and propagation approximately parallel or antiparallel to the background magnetic field B o. The proton velocity distributions during these events are characterizedmore » by two components: a more dense, slower core and a less dense, faster beam. In conclusion, observed plasma parameters are used in a kinetic linear dispersion equation analysis for electromagnetic fluctuations at k x B o = 0; for two events the most unstable mode is the Alfvén-cyclotron instability driven by a proton component temperature anisotropy T ⊥/T || > 1 (where the subscripts denote directions relative to B o), and for three events the most unstable mode is the right-hand polarized magnetosonic instability driven primarily by ion component relative flows. Thus, both types of ion anisotropies and both types of instabilities are likely to be local sources of these enhanced fluctuation events in the solar wind.« less

Ion-driven instabilities in the solar wind: Wind observations of 19 March 2005

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gary, S. Peter; Jian, Lan K.; Broiles, Thomas W.

Intervals of enhanced magnetic fluctuations have been frequently observed in the solar wind. However, it remains an open question as to whether these waves are generated at the Sun and then transported outward by the solar wind or generated locally in the interplanetary medium. Magnetic field and plasma measurements from the Wind spacecraft under slow solar wind conditions on 19 March 2005 demonstrate seven events of enhanced magnetic fluctuations at spacecraft-frame frequencies somewhat above the proton cyclotron frequency and propagation approximately parallel or antiparallel to the background magnetic field B o. The proton velocity distributions during these events are characterizedmore » by two components: a more dense, slower core and a less dense, faster beam. In conclusion, observed plasma parameters are used in a kinetic linear dispersion equation analysis for electromagnetic fluctuations at k x B o = 0; for two events the most unstable mode is the Alfvén-cyclotron instability driven by a proton component temperature anisotropy T ⊥/T || > 1 (where the subscripts denote directions relative to B o), and for three events the most unstable mode is the right-hand polarized magnetosonic instability driven primarily by ion component relative flows. Thus, both types of ion anisotropies and both types of instabilities are likely to be local sources of these enhanced fluctuation events in the solar wind.« less

Ion-driven instabilities in the solar wind: Wind observations of 19 March 2005.

PubMed

Gary, S Peter; Jian, Lan K; Broiles, Thomas W; Stevens, Michael L; Podesta, John J; Kasper, Justin C

2016-01-01

Intervals of enhanced magnetic fluctuations have been frequently observed in the solar wind. But it remains an open question as to whether these waves are generated at the Sun and then transported outward by the solar wind or generated locally in the interplanetary medium. Magnetic field and plasma measurements from the Wind spacecraft under slow solar wind conditions on 19 March 2005 demonstrate seven events of enhanced magnetic fluctuations at spacecraft-frame frequencies somewhat above the proton cyclotron frequency and propagation approximately parallel or antiparallel to the background magnetic field B o . The proton velocity distributions during these events are characterized by two components: a more dense, slower core and a less dense, faster beam. Observed plasma parameters are used in a kinetic linear dispersion equation analysis for electromagnetic fluctuations at k x B o  = 0; for two events the most unstable mode is the Alfvén-cyclotron instability driven by a proton component temperature anisotropy T ⊥ /T ||  > 1 (where the subscripts denote directions relative to B o ), and for three events the most unstable mode is the right-hand polarized magnetosonic instability driven primarily by ion component relative flows. Thus, both types of ion anisotropies and both types of instabilities are likely to be local sources of these enhanced fluctuation events in the solar wind.

Ion‐driven instabilities in the solar wind: Wind observations of 19 March 2005

PubMed Central

Jian, Lan K.; Broiles, Thomas W.; Stevens, Michael L.; Podesta, John J.; Kasper, Justin C.

2016-01-01

Abstract Intervals of enhanced magnetic fluctuations have been frequently observed in the solar wind. But it remains an open question as to whether these waves are generated at the Sun and then transported outward by the solar wind or generated locally in the interplanetary medium. Magnetic field and plasma measurements from the Wind spacecraft under slow solar wind conditions on 19 March 2005 demonstrate seven events of enhanced magnetic fluctuations at spacecraft‐frame frequencies somewhat above the proton cyclotron frequency and propagation approximately parallel or antiparallel to the background magnetic field B o. The proton velocity distributions during these events are characterized by two components: a more dense, slower core and a less dense, faster beam. Observed plasma parameters are used in a kinetic linear dispersion equation analysis for electromagnetic fluctuations at k x B o = 0; for two events the most unstable mode is the Alfvén‐cyclotron instability driven by a proton component temperature anisotropy T⊥/T|| > 1 (where the subscripts denote directions relative to B o), and for three events the most unstable mode is the right‐hand polarized magnetosonic instability driven primarily by ion component relative flows. Thus, both types of ion anisotropies and both types of instabilities are likely to be local sources of these enhanced fluctuation events in the solar wind. PMID:27818854

Theoretical studies on rapid fluctuations in solar flares

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlahos, Loukas

1986-01-01

Rapid fluctuations in the emission of solar bursts may have many different origins e.g., the acceleration process can have a pulsating structure, the propagation of energetic electrons and ions can be interrupted from plasma instabilities and finally the electromagnetic radiation produced by the interaction of electrostatic and electromagnetic waves may have a pulsating behavior in time. In two separate studies the conditions for rapid fluctuations in solar flare driven emission were analyzed.

Reduced-Order Modeling of 3D Rayleigh-Benard Turbulent Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanzadeh, Pedram; Grover, Piyush; Nabi, Saleh

2017-11-01

Accurate Reduced-Order Models (ROMs) of turbulent geophysical flows have broad applications in science and engineering; for example, to study the climate system or to perform real-time flow control/optimization in energy systems. Here we focus on 3D Rayleigh-Benard turbulent convection at the Rayleigh number of 106 as a prototype for turbulent geophysical flows, which are dominantly buoyancy driven. The purpose of the study is to evaluate and improve the performance of different model reduction techniques using this setting. One-dimensional ROMs for horizontally averaged temperature are calculated using several methods. Specifically, the Linear Response Function (LRF) of the system is calculated from a large DNS dataset using Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) and Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem (FDT). The LRF is also calculated using the Green's function method of Hassanzadeh and Kuang (2016, J. Atmos. Sci.), which is based on using numerous forced DNS runs. The performance of these LRFs in estimating the system's response to weak external forcings or controlling the time-mean flow are compared and contrasted. The spectral properties of the LRFs and the scaling of the accuracy with the length of the dataset (for the data-driven methods) are also discussed.

Fishing Quotas, Induced Allee Effect, and Fluctuation-Driven Extinction.

PubMed

Hastings, Harold M; Radin, Michael; Wiandt, Tamas

2017-01-01

We explore the potential of modifications to standard fishery models (for example Gordon-Schafer-Munro) to help understand events such as the collapse of the North Atlantic cod fishery. In particular we find that quota-driven and similar harvesting strategies induce an effective strong Allee effect (collapse if the population falls below a critical level). In the presence of environmental noise, fish population dynamics is similar to a random walk with (non-linear) drift. The expected survival time (first passage time to collapse) is shown to depend sensitively upon the amount of environmental noise and size of the 'safe zone' between the deterministic steady state population and the critical population level at which the system collapses; more precisely it is exponential in the cube of the size of the safe zone divided by the variance of the noise process. Similar scaling can be expected for more survival in more general systems with multiple steady states. Our calculations imply an amplification effect under which small increases in harvest yield large decreases in expected survival time, and one should be cautious in changes in harvesting, especially in fisheries with poor or limited data and fisheries affected by climate change.

Discriminating low frequency components from long range persistent fluctuations in daily atmospheric temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanfredi, M.; Simoniello, T.; Cuomo, V.; Macchiato, M.

2009-02-01

This study originated from recent results reported in literature, which support the existence of long-range (power-law) persistence in atmospheric temperature fluctuations on monthly and inter-annual scales. We investigated the results of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) carried out on twenty-two historical daily time series recorded in Europe in order to evaluate the reliability of such findings in depth. More detailed inspections emphasized systematic deviations from power-law and high statistical confidence for functional form misspecification. Rigorous analyses did not support scale-free correlation as an operative concept for Climate modelling, as instead suggested in literature. In order to understand the physical implications of our results better, we designed a bivariate Markov process, parameterised on the basis of the atmospheric observational data by introducing a slow dummy variable. The time series generated by this model, analysed both in time and frequency domains, tallied with the real ones very well. They accounted for both the deceptive scaling found in literature and the correlation details enhanced by our analysis. Our results seem to evidence the presence of slow fluctuations from another climatic sub-system such as ocean, which inflates temperature variance up to several months. They advise more precise re-analyses of temperature time series before suggesting dynamical paradigms useful for Climate modelling and for the assessment of Climate Change.

Discriminating low frequency components from long range persistent fluctuations in daily atmospheric temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanfredi, M.; Simoniello, T.; Cuomo, V.; Macchiato, M.

2009-07-01

This study originated from recent results reported in literature, which support the existence of long-range (power-law) persistence in atmospheric temperature fluctuations on monthly and inter-annual scales. We investigated the results of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) carried out on twenty-two historical daily time series recorded in Europe in order to evaluate the reliability of such findings in depth. More detailed inspections emphasized systematic deviations from power-law and high statistical confidence for functional form misspecification. Rigorous analyses did not support scale-free correlation as an operative concept for Climate modelling, as instead suggested in literature. In order to understand the physical implications of our results better, we designed a bivariate Markov process, parameterised on the basis of the atmospheric observational data by introducing a slow dummy variable. The time series generated by this model, analysed both in time and frequency domains, tallied with the real ones very well. They accounted for both the deceptive scaling found in literature and the correlation details enhanced by our analysis. Our results seem to evidence the presence of slow fluctuations from another climatic sub-system such as ocean, which inflates temperature variance up to several months. They advise more precise re-analyses of temperature time series before suggesting dynamical paradigms useful for Climate modelling and for the assessment of Climate Change.

Electrostatic and magnetic measurements of turbulence and transport in Extrap T2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Möller, Anders; Sallander, Eva

1999-10-01

Langmuir probe and magnetic pick-up coil measurements are used to study edge turbulence in the Extrap T2 reversed field pinch. Magnetic fluctuations resonant outside the toroidal field reversal surface are observed where previously only fluctuations in the spectra of potential and electron density and temperature have been measured. Results are presented which imply that these fluctuations are coupled to and also correlated to the internally resonant tearing mode fluctuations. Evidence of coupling between low-frequency (<100 kHz) and high-frequency fluctuations is also presented. The normalized floating potential fluctuations are seen to increase with the edge electron temperature. This causes an increase of the potential and density fluctuation driven transport with the temperature which is faster than linear. These results, in combination, are consistent with a picture where internally resonant fluctuations couple to edge fluctuations through radial heat conduction from the stochastic core to the edge.

Climatic niche and neutral genetic diversity of the six Iberian pine species: a retrospective and prospective view.

PubMed

Soto, A; Robledo-Arnuncio, J J; González-Martínez, S C; Smouse, P E; Alía, R

2010-04-01

Quaternary climatic fluctuations have left contrasting historical footprints on the neutral genetic diversity patterns of existing populations of different tree species. We should expect the demography, and consequently the neutral genetic structure, of taxa less tolerant to particular climatic extremes to be more sensitive to long-term climate fluctuations. We explore this hypothesis here by sampling all six pine species found in the Iberian Peninsula (2464 individuals, 105 populations), using a common set of chloroplast microsatellite markers, and by looking at the association between neutral genetic diversity and species-specific climatic requirements. We found large variation in neutral genetic diversity and structure among Iberian pines, with cold-enduring mountain species (Pinus uncinata, P. sylvestris and P. nigra) showing substantially greater diversity than thermophilous taxa (P. pinea and P. halepensis). Within species, we observed a significant positive correlation between population genetic diversity and summer precipitation for some of the mountain pines. The observed pattern is consistent with the hypotheses that: (i) more thermophilous species have been subjected to stronger demographic fluctuations in the past, as a consequence of their maladaptation to recurrent glacial cold stages; and (ii) altitudinal migrations have allowed the maintenance of large effective population sizes and genetic variation in cold-tolerant species, especially in more humid regions. In the light of these results and hypotheses, we discuss some potential genetic consequences of impending climate change.

Interannual to multidecadal climate forcings on groundwater resources of the U.S. West Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Velasco, Elzie M.; Gurdak, Jason J.; Dickinson, Jesse; Ferré, T.P.A.; Corona, Claudia

2017-01-01

Study regionThe U.S. West Coast, including the Pacific Northwest and California Coastal Basins aquifer systems.Study focusGroundwater response to interannual to multidecadal climate variability has important implications for security within the water–energy–food nexus. Here we use Singular Spectrum Analysis to quantify the teleconnections between AMO, PDO, ENSO, and PNA and precipitation and groundwater level fluctuations. The computer program DAMP was used to provide insight on the influence of soil texture, depth to water, and mean and period of a surface infiltration flux on the damping of climate signals in the vadose zone.New hydrological insights for the regionWe find that PDO, ENSO, and PNA have significant influence on precipitation and groundwater fluctuations across a north-south gradient of the West Coast, but the lower frequency climate modes (PDO) have a greater influence on hydrologic patterns than higher frequency climate modes (ENSO and PNA). Low frequency signals tend to be preserved better in groundwater fluctuations than high frequency signals, which is a function of the degree of damping of surface variable fluxes related to soil texture, depth to water, mean and period of the infiltration flux. The teleconnection patterns that exist in surface hydrologic processes are not necessarily the same as those preserved in subsurface processes, which are affected by damping of some climate variability signals within infiltrating water.

Glacier mass-balance fluctuations in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Josberger, E.G.; Bidlake, W.R.; March, R.S.; Kennedy, B.W.

2007-01-01

The more than 40 year record of net and seasonal mass-balance records from measurements made by the United States Geological Survey on South Cascade Glacier, Washington, and Wolverine and Gulkana Glaciers, Alaska, shows annual and interannual fluctuations that reflect changes in the controlling climatic conditions at regional and global scales. As the mass-balance record grows in length, it is revealing significant changes in previously described glacier mass-balance behavior, and both inter-glacier and glacier-climate relationships. South Cascade and Wolverine Glaciers are strongly affected by the warm and wet maritime climate of the northeast Pacific Ocean. Their net balances have generally been controlled by winter accumulation, with fluctuations that are strongly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Recently, warm dry summers have begun to dominate the net balance of the two maritime glaciers, with a weakening of the correlation between the winter balance fluctuations and the PDO. Non-synchronous periods of positive and negative net balance for each glacier prior to 1989 were followed by a 1989-2004 period of synchronous and almost exclusively negative net balances that averaged -0.8 m for the three glaciers.

Do GCM's Predict the Climate.... Or the Low Frequency Weather?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, S.; Varon, D.; Schertzer, D. J.

2011-12-01

Over twenty-five years ago, a three-regime scaling model was proposed describing the statistical variability of the atmosphere over time scales ranging from weather scales out to ≈ 100 kyrs. Using modern in situ data reanalyses, monthly surface series (at 5ox5o), 8 "multiproxy" (yearly) series of the Northern hemisphere from 1500- 1980, and GRIP and Vostok paleotemperatures at 5.2 and ≈ 100 year resolutions (over the past 91-420 kyrs), we refine the model and show how it can be understood with the help of new developments in nonlinear dynamics, especially multifractals and cascades. In a scaling range, mean fluctuations in state variables such as temperature ΔT ≈ ΔtH the where Δt is the duration. At small (weather) scales the fluctuation exponents are generally H>0; they grow with scale. At longer scales Δt >τw (≈ 10 days) they change sign, the fluctuations decrease with scale; this is the low variability, "low frequency weather" regime the spectrum is a relatively flat "plateau", it's variability is that of the usual idea of "long term weather statistics". Finally for longer times, Δt>τc ≈ 10 - 100 years, again H>0, the variability again increases with scale. This is the true climate regime. These scaling regimes allow us to objectively define the weather as fluctuations over periods <τw, "climate states", as fluctuations at scale τc and "climate change" as the fluctuations at longer periods >τc). We show that the intermediate regime is the result of the weather regime undergoing a "dimensional transition": at temporal scales longer than the typical lifetime of planetary structures (τw), the spatial degrees of freedom are rapidly quenched, only the temporal degrees of freedom are important. This low frequency weather regime has statistical properties well reproduced not only by weather cascade models, but also by control runs (i.e. without climate forcing) of GCM's (including IPSL and ECHAM GCM's). In order for GCM's to go beyond simply predicting this low frequency weather so as to predict the climate, they need appropriate climate forcings and/ or new internal mechanisms of variability. We examine this using wavelet analyses of forced and unforced GCM outputs, including the ECHO-G simulation used in the Millenium project. For example, we find that climate scenarios with large CO2 increases do give rise to a climate regime but that Hc>1 i.e. much larger than that of natural variability which for temperatures has Hc≈0.4. In comparison, the (largely volcanic) forcing of the ECHO-G Millenium simulation is fairly realistic (Hc≈0.4), although it is not clear that this mechanism can explain the even lower frequency variability found in the paleotemperature series, nor is it clear that this is compatible with low frequency solar or orbital forcings.

Man-Made Climatic Changes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landsberg, Helmut E.

1970-01-01

Reviews environmental studies which show that national climatic fluctuations vary over a wide range. Solar radiation, earth temperatures, precipitation, atmospheric gases and suspended particulates are discussed in relation to urban and extraurban effects. Local weather modifications and attempts at climate control by man seem to have substantial…

Climate of Priest River Experimental Forest, northern Idaho

Treesearch

Arnold I. Finklin

1983-01-01

Detailed climatic description of Priest River Experimental Forest; applies to much of the northern Idaho panhandle. Covers year-round pattern and focuses on the fire season. Topographic and local site differences in climate are examined; also, climatic trends or fluctuations during the past 70 years. Includes numerous tables and graphs. Written particularly for forest...

Long term carbon fluxes in south eastern U.S. pine ecosystems.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bracho, R. G.; Martin, T.; Gonzalez-Benecke, C. A.; Sharp, J.

2015-12-01

Forests in the southeastern U.S. are a critical component of the national carbon balance storing a third of the total forest carbon (C) in conterminous USA. South eastern forests occupy 60% of the land area, with a large fraction dominated by the genus Pinus distributed in almost equal proportions of naturally-regenerated and planted stands. These stands often differ in structure (e.g., stem density, leaf area index (LAI)) and in the intensity with which they are managed (e.g. naturally-regenerated, older pine stands are often managed less intensively, with prescribed fire). We measured C fluxes using the eddy covariance approach (net ecosystem production, -NEP) in planted (Pinus elliottii var. elliottii) and naturally-regenerated mixed stand of long leaf (Pinus palustris Mill) and slash pine (Pinus elliottii var. elliottii) accompanied by biometric estimations of C balance. Measurements spanned more than a decade and included interannual climatic variability ranging from severe droughts (e.g. Palmer Drought severity index (PDSI) averaged -2.7 from January 2000 to May 2002, and -3.3 from June 2006 to April 2008), to years with tropical storms. Annual NEP for the older, naturally-regenerated stand fluctuated from -1.60 to -5.38 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 with an average of -2.73 ± 1.17 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 while in plantations after canopy closure NEP fluctuated from -4.0 to -8.2 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 with an average of -6.17 ± 1.34 Mg C ha-1 yr-1. Annual NEP in naturally-regenerated pine was mainly driven by a combination of water availability and understory burning while in plantations it was driven by water availability after canopy closure. Woody and above ground net primary productivity (NPP) followed gross ecosystem carbon exchange (GEE) in both ecosystems. Naturally-regenerated and planted pine are a strong carbon sink under the current management and environmental fluctuations accumulating 28 and 130 Mg C ha-1 in a decade, respectively, and are among the most productive forests in the world.

Climate fluctuations in the Czech Lands from AD 1500 compiled from various proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrovolný, Petr; Brázdil, Rudolf; Možný, Martin; Trnka, Miroslav; Řezníčková, Ladislava; Kotyza, Oldřich; Valášek, Hubert; Dolák, Lukáš

2017-04-01

The territory of the Czech Lands (recent Czech Republic) belongs to European areas well covered by dedrochronological, documentary and instrumental data which can be used for climate reconstructions for the last c. 500 years, i.e. for description of climate fluctuations during the greater part of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the subsequent period of the recent Global Warming. Synthesis of various existing reconstructions should help to create more consistent description of climate variability in that period in Central Europe. The contribution starts from characteristic of the basic features of three existing data sources and a general method of climate reconstruction. Monthly, seasonal and annual climate reconstructions based on different data are presented: a) temperature reconstructions derived from series of temperature indices, winter wheat harvest days and grape harvest days; b) precipitation reconstructions derived from series of precipitation indices and fir tree-rings; c) drought indices (SPI, SPEI, Z-index and PDSI) reconstructions derived from series of fir tree-rings, grape harvest days and documentary-based temperature and precipitation reconstructions. Basic features of past c. 500 years are represented by various time intervals of cooler and warmer climate on the one hand and wetter and drier climate on the other. Examples of such particularly warmer and drier period can be the 1530s (with extreme 1540 year) or colder and wetter conditions during the 1590s and 1690s. Outstanding extreme weather events during LIA in Central Europe are briefly mentioned and our findings are discussed with respect to climate fluctuations and forcings in wider European context. (This study was supported by Czech Science Foundation, project nos. 13-04291S and 17-10026S).

Soil Metabolome and Metabolic Fate: Microbial Insights into Freshwater Tidal Wetland Redox Biogeochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy Chowdhury, T.; Bramer, L.; Hoyt, D. W.; Kim, Y. M.; Metz, T. O.; McCue, L. A.; Jansson, J.; Bailey, V. L.

2017-12-01

Earth System Models predict climate extremes that will impact regional and global hydrology. Aquatic-terrestrial transition zones like wetlands will experience the immediate consequence of climate change as shifts in the magnitude and dynamics of hydrologic flow. Such fluctuating hydrology can alter the structure and function of the soil microbial populations that in turn will alter the nature and rate of biogeochemical transformations and significantly impact the carbon balance of the ecosystem. We tested the impacts of shifting hydrology on the soil microbiome and the role of antecedent moisture condition on redox active microbial processes in soils sampled from a tidal freshwater wetland system in the lower Columbia River, WA, USA. Our objectives were to characterize changes in the soil microbial community composition in response to soil moisture legacy effects, and to elucidate relationships between community response, geochemical signatures and metabolite profiles in this soil. The 16S rRNA gene sequencing showed significant decreases in bacterial abundance capable of anaerobic metabolism in response to drying, but quickly recovered to the antecedent moisture condition, as observed by redox processes. Metabolomics and biogeochemical process rates generated evidence for moisture-driven redox conditions as principal controls on the community and metabolic function. Fluctuating redox conditions altered terminal electron acceptor and donor availability and recovery strengths of these pools in soil such that a disproportionate release of carbon dioxide stemmed from alternative anaerobic degradation processes like sulfate and iron reduction in compared to methanogenesis. Our results show that anoxic conditions impact microbial communities in both permanently and temporarily saturated conditions and that rapid change in hydrology can increase substrate availability for both aerobic and anaerobic decomposition processes, including methanogenesis.

A Tropical View of Atlantic Multidecadal SST Variability over the Last Two Millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurtzel, J. B.; Black, D. E.; Thunell, R.; Peterson, L. C.; Tappa, E. J.; Rahman, S.

2011-12-01

Instrumental and proxy-reconstructions show the existence of a 60-80 year periodicity in Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO is correlated with circum-tropical Atlantic climate phenomena such as Sahel and Nordeste rainfall, as well as Atlantic hurricane patterns. Though it has been suggested that the AMO is controlled by thermohaline circulation, much debate exists as to whether the SST fluctuations are a result of anthropogenic forcing or natural climate variability. Our ability to address this issue has been limited by instrumental SST records that rarely extend back more than 50-100 years and proxy reconstructions that are largely terrestrial-based. Here we present a high-resolution marine sediment-derived reconstruction of seasonal tropical Atlantic SSTs from the Cariaco Basin spanning the past two millennia that is correlated with instrumental SSTs and the AMO for the period of overlap. The full record demonstrates that seasonality is largely controlled by variations in winter/spring SST. Wavelet analysis of the proxy data suggest that variability in the 60-80 year band evolved 250 years ago, while 40-60 year periodicities dominate earlier parts of the record. At least over the last millennia, multidecadal- and centennial- scale SST variability in the tropical Atlantic appears related to Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) fluctuations and its associated northward heat transport that in turn may be driven by solar variability. An inverse correlation between the tropical proxy annual average SST record and Δ14C indicates that the tropics experienced positive SST anomalies during times of reduced solar activity, possibly as a result of decreased AMOC strength (Figure 1).

Logarithmic Superdiffusion in Two Dimensional Driven Lattice Gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krug, J.; Neiss, R. A.; Schadschneider, A.; Schmidt, J.

2018-03-01

The spreading of density fluctuations in two-dimensional driven diffusive systems is marginally anomalous. Mode coupling theory predicts that the diffusivity in the direction of the drive diverges with time as (ln t)^{2/3} with a prefactor depending on the macroscopic current-density relation and the diffusion tensor of the fluctuating hydrodynamic field equation. Here we present the first numerical verification of this behavior for a particular version of the two-dimensional asymmetric exclusion process. Particles jump strictly asymmetrically along one of the lattice directions and symmetrically along the other, and an anisotropy parameter p governs the ratio between the two rates. Using a novel massively parallel coupling algorithm that strongly reduces the fluctuations in the numerical estimate of the two-point correlation function, we are able to accurately determine the exponent of the logarithmic correction. In addition, the variation of the prefactor with p provides a stringent test of mode coupling theory.

Fluctuation-driven mechanotransduction regulates mitochondrial-network structure and function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartolák-Suki, Erzsébet; Imsirovic, Jasmin; Parameswaran, Harikrishnan; Wellman, Tyler J.; Martinez, Nuria; Allen, Philip G.; Frey, Urs; Suki, Béla

2015-10-01

Cells can be exposed to irregular mechanical fluctuations, such as those arising from changes in blood pressure. Here, we report that ATP production, assessed through changes in mitochondrial membrane potential, is downregulated in vascular smooth muscle cells in culture exposed to monotonous stretch cycles when compared with cells exposed to a variable cyclic stretch that incorporates physiological levels of cycle-by-cycle variability in stretch amplitude. Variable stretch enhances ATP production by increasing the expression of ATP synthase’s catalytic domain, cytochrome c oxidase and its tyrosine phosphorylation, mitofusins and PGC-1α. Such a fluctuation-driven mechanotransduction mechanism is mediated by motor proteins and by the enhancement of microtubule-, actin- and mitochondrial-network complexity. We also show that, in aorta rings isolated from rats, monotonous stretch downregulates--whereas variable stretch maintains--physiological vessel-wall contractility through mitochondrial ATP production. Our results have implications for ATP-dependent and mechanosensitive intracellular processes.

Statistical parameters of thermally driven turbulent anabatic flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hilel, Roni; Liberzon, Dan

2016-11-01

Field measurements of thermally driven turbulent anabatic flow over a moderate slope are reported. A collocated hot-films-sonic anemometer (Combo) obtained the finer scales of the flow by implementing a Neural Networks based in-situ calibration technique. Eight days of continuous measurements of the wind and temperature fluctuations reviled a diurnal pattern of unstable stratification that forced development of highly turbulent unidirectional up slope flow. Empirical fits of important turbulence statistics were obtained from velocity fluctuations' time series alongside fully resolved spectra of velocity field components and characteristic length scales. TKE and TI showed linear dependence on Re, while velocity derivative skewness and dissipation rates indicated the anisotropic nature of the flow. Empirical fits of normalized velocity fluctuations power density spectra were derived as spectral shapes exhibited high level of similarity. Bursting phenomenon was detected at 15% of the total time. Frequency of occurrence, spectral characteristics and possible generation mechanism are discussed. BSF Grant #2014075.

Phase-dependent climate-predator interactions explain three decades of variation in neonatal caribou survival.

PubMed

Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Schaefer, James A; Lewis, Keith P; Mumma, Matthew A; Ellington, E Hance; Rayl, Nathaniel D; Mahoney, Shane P; Pouliot, Darren; Murray, Dennis L

2016-03-01

Climate can have direct and indirect effects on population dynamics via changes in resource competition or predation risk, but this influence may be modulated by density- or phase-dependent processes. We hypothesized that for ungulates, climatic conditions close to parturition have a greater influence on the predation risk of neonates during population declines, when females are already under nutritional stress triggered by food limitation. We examined the presence of phase-dependent climate-predator (PDCP) interactions on neonatal ungulate survival by comparing spatial and temporal fluctuations in climatic conditions, cause-specific mortality and per capita resource limitation. We determined cause-specific fates of 1384 caribou (Rangifer tarandus) from 10 herds in Newfoundland, spanning more than 30 years during periods of numerical increase and decline, while exposed to predation from black bears (Ursus americanus) and coyotes (Canis latrans). We conducted Cox proportional hazards analysis for competing risks, fit as a function of weather metrics, to assess pre- and post-partum climatic influences on survival on herds in population increase and decline phases. We used cumulative incidence functions to compare temporal changes in risk from predators. Our results support our main hypothesis; when caribou populations increased, weather conditions preceding calving were the main determinants of cause-specific mortality, but when populations declined, weather conditions during calving also influenced predator-driven mortality. Cause-specific analysis showed that weather conditions can differentially affect predation risk between black bears and coyotes with specific variables increasing the risk from one species and decreasing the risk from the other. For caribou, nutritional stress appears to increase predation risk on neonates, an interaction which is exacerbated by susceptibility to climatic events. These findings support the PDCP interactions framework, where maternal body condition influences susceptibility to climate-related events and, subsequently, risk from predation. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Interannual water-level fluctuations and the vegetation of prairie potholes: Potential impacts of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

van der Valk, Arnold; Mushet, David M.

2016-01-01

Mean water depth and range of interannual water-level fluctuations over wet-dry cycles in precipitation are major drivers of vegetation zone formation in North American prairie potholes. We used harmonic hydrological models, which require only mean interannual water depth and amplitude of water-level fluctuations over a wet–dry cycle, to examine how the vegetation zones in a pothole would respond to small changes in water depth and/or amplitude of water-level fluctuations. Field data from wetlands in Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and South Dakota were used to parameterize harmonic models for four pothole classes. Six scenarios in which small negative or positive changes in either mean water depth, amplitude of interannual fluctuations, or both, were modeled to predict if they would affect the number of zones in each wetland class. The results indicated that, in some cases, even small changes in mean water depth when coupled with a small change in amplitude of water-level fluctuations can shift a prairie pothole wetland from one class to another. Our results suggest that climate change could alter the relative proportion of different wetland classes in the prairie pothole region.

Space-based ornithology: studying bird migration and environmental change in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, James A.; Deppe, Jill L.

2008-10-01

Natural fluctuations in the availability of critical stopover sites coupled with anthropogenic destruction of wetlands, land-use change, and anticipated losses due to climate change present migratory birds with a formidable challenge. Space based technology in concert with bird migration modeling and geographical information analysis yields new opportunities to shed light on the distribution and movement of organisms on the planet and their sensitivity to human disturbances and environmental changes. At the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, we are creating ecological forecasting tools for science and application users to address the consequences of loss of wetlands, flooding, drought or other natural disasters such as hurricanes on avian biodiversity and bird migration. We use an individual-based bird biophysical migration model, driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate and hydrologic data, and biological field observations to study migratory bird responses to environmental change in North America. Simulation allows us to study bird migration across multiple scales and can be linked to mechanistic processes describing the time and energy budget states of migrating birds. We illustrate our approach by simulating the spring migration of pectoral sandpipers from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska. Mean stopover length and trajectory patterns are consistent with field observations.

Space-Based Ornithology - Studying Bird Migration and Environmental Change in North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, James A.; Deppe, Jill L.

2008-01-01

Natural fluctuations in the availability of critical stopover sites coupled with anthropogenic destruction of wetlands, land-use change, and anticipated losses due to climate change present migratory birds with a formidable challenge. Space based technology in concert with bird migration modeling and geographical information analysis yields new opportunities to shed light on the distribution and movement of organisms on the planet and their sensitivity to human disturbances and environmental changes. At the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, we are creating ecological forecasting tools for science and application users to address the consequences of loss of wetlands, flooding, drought or other natural disasters such as hurricanes on avian biodiversity and bird migration. We use an individual-based bird biophysical migration model, driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate and hydrologic data, and biological field observations to study migratory bird responses to environmental change in North America. Simulation allows us to study bird migration across multiple scales and can be linked to mechanistic processes describing the time and energy budget states of migrating birds. We illustrate our approach by simulating the spring migration of pectoral sandpipers from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska. Mean stopover length and trajectory patterns are consistent with field observations.

Recruitment variation of eastern Bering Sea crabs: Climate-forcing or top-down effects?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Jie; Kruse, Gordon H.

2006-02-01

During the last three decades, population abundances of eastern Bering Sea (EBS) crab stocks fluctuated greatly, driven by highly variable recruitment. In recent years, abundances of these stocks have been very low compared to historical levels. This study aims to understand recruitment variation of six stocks of red king ( Paralithodes camtschaticus), blue king ( P. platypus), Tanner ( Chionoecetes bairdi), and snow ( C. opilio) crabs in the EBS. Most crab recruitment time series are not significantly correlated with each other. Spatial distributions of three broadly distributed crab stocks (EBS snow and Tanner crabs and Bristol Bay red king crab) have changed considerably over time, possibly related in part to the regime shift in climate and physical oceanography in 1976-1977. Three climate-forcing hypotheses on larval survival have been proposed to explain crab recruitment variation of Bristol Bay red king crab and EBS Tanner and snow crabs. Some empirical evidence supports speculation that groundfish predation may play an important role in crab recruitment success in the EBS. However, spatial dynamics in the geographic distributions of groundfish and crabs over time make it difficult to relate crab recruitment strength to groundfish biomass. Comprehensive field and spatially explicit modeling studies are needed to test the hypotheses and better understand the relative importance and compound effects of bottom-up and top-down controls on crab recruitment.

Gait-Cycle-Driven Transmission Power Control Scheme for a Wireless Body Area Network.

PubMed

Zang, Weilin; Li, Ye

2018-05-01

In a wireless body area network (WBAN), walking movements can result in rapid channel fluctuations, which severely degrade the performance of transmission power control (TPC) schemes. On the other hand, these channel fluctuations are often periodic and are time-synchronized with the user's gait cycle, since they are all driven from the walking movements. In this paper, we propose a novel gait-cycle-driven transmission power control (G-TPC) for a WBAN. The proposed G-TPC scheme reinforces the existing TPC scheme by exploiting the periodic channel fluctuation in the walking scenario. In the proposed scheme, the user's gait cycle information acquired by an accelerometer is used as beacons for arranging the transmissions at the time points with the ideal channel state. The specific transmission power is then determined by using received signal strength indication (RSSI). An experiment was conducted to evaluate the energy efficiency and reliability of the proposed G-TPC based on a CC2420 platform. The results reveal that compared to the original RSSI/link-quality-indication-based TPC, G-TPC reduces energy consumption by 25% on the sensor node and reduce the packet loss rate by 65%.

Perturbatively deformed defects in Pöschl-Teller-driven scenarios for quantum mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardini, Alex E.; da Rocha, Roldão

2016-07-01

Pöschl-Teller-driven solutions for quantum mechanical fluctuations are triggered off by single scalar field theories obtained through a systematic perturbative procedure for generating deformed defects. The analytical properties concerning the quantum fluctuations in one-dimension, zero-mode states, first- and second-excited states, and energy density profiles are all obtained from deformed topological and non-topological structures supported by real scalar fields. Results are firstly derived from an integrated λϕ4 theory, with corresponding generalizations applied to starting λχ4 and sine-Gordon theories. By focusing our calculations on structures supported by the λϕ4 theory, the outcome of our study suggests an exact quantitative correspondence to Pöschl-Teller-driven systems. Embedded into the perturbative quantum mechanics framework, such a correspondence turns into a helpful tool for computing excited states and continuous mode solutions, as well as their associated energy spectrum, for quantum fluctuations of perturbatively deformed structures. Perturbative deformations create distinct physical scenarios in the context of exactly solvable quantum systems and may also work as an analytical support for describing novel braneworld universes embedded into a 5-dimensional gravity bulk.

Gyrokinetic GDC turbulence simulations: confirming a new instability regime in LAPD plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pueschel, M. J.; Rossi, G.; Told, D.; Terry, P. W.; Jenko, F.; Carter, T. A.

2016-10-01

Recent high-beta experiments at the LArge Plasma Device have found significant parallel magnetic fluctuations in the region of large pressure gradients. Linear gyrokinetic simulations show the dominant instability at these radii to be the gradient-driven drift coupling (GDC) mode, a non-textbook mode driven by pressure gradients and destabilized by the coupling of ExB and grad-B∥ drifts. Unlike in previous studies, the large parallel extent of the device allows for finite-kz versions of this instability in addition to kz = 0 . The locations of maximum linear growth match very well with experimentally observed peaks of B∥ fluctuations. Local nonlinear simulations reproduce many features of the observations fairly well, with the exception of Bperp fluctuations, for which experimental profiles suggest a source unrelated to pressure gradients. In toto, the results presented here show that turbulence and transport in these experiments are driven by the GDC instability, that important characteristics of the linear instability carry over to nonlinear simulations, and - in the context of validation - that the gyrokinetic framework performs surprisingly well far outside its typical area of application, increasing confidence in its predictive abilities. Supported by U.S. DOE.

Does Integration Help Adapt to Climate Change? Case of Increased US Corn Yield Volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Hertel, T. W.

2012-12-01

In absence of of new crop varieties or significant shifts in the geography of corn production, US national corn yields variation could double by the year 2040 as a result of climate change and without adaptation this could lead the variability in US corn prices to quadruple (Diffenbaugh et al. 2012). In addition to climate induced price changes, analysis of recent commodity price spikes suggests that interventionist trade policies are partly to blame. Assuming we cannot much influence the future climate outcome, what policies can we undertake to adapt better? Can we use markets to blunt this edge? Diffenbaugh et al. find that sale of corn- ethanol for use in liquid fuel, when governed by quotas such as US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), could make US corn prices even more variable; in contrast the same food-fuel market link (we refer to it as intersectoral link) may well dampen price volatility when the sale of corn to ethanol industry is driven by higher future oil prices. The latter however comes at the cost of exposing corn prices to the greater volatility in oil markets. Similarly intervention in corn trade can make US corn prices less or more volatile by distorting international corn price transmission. A negative US corn yield shock shows that domestic corn supply falls and domestic prices to go up irrespective of whether or not markets are integrated. How much the prices go up depends on how much demand adjusts to accommodate the supply shock. Based on the forgoing analysis, one should expect that demand would adjust more readily when markets are integrated and therefore reduce the resulting price fluctuation. Simulation results confirm this response of corn markets. In terms of relative comparisons however a policy driven intersectoral integration is least effective and prices rise much more. Similarly, a positive world oil price shock makes the US oil imports expensive and with oil being used to produce gasoline blends, it increases the price of gasoline and reduces its demand. In the presence of domestic integration, ethanol production rises to substitute oil in the gasoline blend and thereby increases the corn demand and prices. However if one takes into account increase in corn price due to increased production costs (increase in oil price increases fertilizer prices - a major input into corn production) and reduced corn prices due to reduced fuel demand and therefore reduced ethanol additive demand; the prices can go either way. Our initial simulations show that they do in fact go down with mandate driven integration. This raises some more general questions: Whether integration (intersectoral and international) can be an effective strategy for adapting to climate change? And which of the four adaptation options - RFS or oil price driven domestic integration, full corn tariff liberalization or restricting tariff manipulation by partners - would be more effective in comparison to other adaptation (including no adaptation) scenarios? We implement the alternative adaptation strategies, while sampling from the same corn yield and oil price distributions and compare the resulting corn price variations to the base case where no such adaptation has been undertaken. Our initial results suggest that intersectoral integration is more effective form of adaptation than international one, but only if driven by market forces and not mandates.

Clay mineral diversity and abundance in sedimentary rocks of Gale crater, Mars.

PubMed

Bristow, Thomas F; Rampe, Elizabeth B; Achilles, Cherie N; Blake, David F; Chipera, Steve J; Craig, Patricia; Crisp, Joy A; Des Marais, David J; Downs, Robert T; Gellert, Ralf; Grotzinger, John P; Gupta, Sanjeev; Hazen, Robert M; Horgan, Briony; Hogancamp, Joanna V; Mangold, Nicolas; Mahaffy, Paul R; McAdam, Amy C; Ming, Doug W; Morookian, John Michael; Morris, Richard V; Morrison, Shaunna M; Treiman, Allan H; Vaniman, David T; Vasavada, Ashwin R; Yen, Albert S

2018-06-01

Clay minerals provide indicators of the evolution of aqueous conditions and possible habitats for life on ancient Mars. Analyses by the Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity show that ~3.5-billion year (Ga) fluvio-lacustrine mudstones in Gale crater contain up to ~28 weight % (wt %) clay minerals. We demonstrate that the species of clay minerals deduced from x-ray diffraction and evolved gas analysis show a strong paleoenvironmental dependency. While perennial lake mudstones are characterized by Fe-saponite, we find that stratigraphic intervals associated with episodic lake drying contain Al-rich, Fe 3+ -bearing dioctahedral smectite, with minor (3 wt %) quantities of ferripyrophyllite, interpreted as wind-blown detritus, found in candidate aeolian deposits. Our results suggest that dioctahedral smectite formed via near-surface chemical weathering driven by fluctuations in lake level and atmospheric infiltration, a process leading to the redistribution of nutrients and potentially influencing the cycling of gases that help regulate climate.

Including eddies in global ocean models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semtner, Albert J.; Chervin, Robert M.

The ocean is a turbulent fluid that is driven by winds and by surface exchanges of heat and moisture. It is as important as the atmosphere in governing climate through heat distribution, but so little is known about the ocean that it remains a “final frontier” on the face of the Earth. Many ocean currents are truly global in extent, such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the “conveyor belt” that connects the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans by flows around the southern tips of Africa and South America. It has long been a dream of some oceanographers to supplement the very limited observational knowledge by reconstructing the currents of the world ocean from the first principles of physics on a computer. However, until very recently, the prospect of doing this was thwarted by the fact that fluctuating currents known as “mesoscale eddies” could not be explicitly included in the calculation.

Decoupling of mass flux and turbulent wind fluctuations in drifting snow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paterna, E.; Crivelli, P.; Lehning, M.

2016-05-01

The wind-driven redistribution of snow has a significant impact on the climate and mass balance of polar and mountainous regions. Locally, it shapes the snow surface, producing dunes and sastrugi. Sediment transport has been mainly represented as a function of the wind strength, and the two processes assumed to be stationary and in equilibrium. The wind flow in the atmospheric boundary layer is unsteady and turbulent, and drifting snow may never reach equilibrium. Our question is therefore: what role do turbulent eddies play in initiating and maintaining drifting snow? To investigate the interaction between drifting snow and turbulence experimentally, we conducted several wind tunnel measurements of drifting snow over naturally deposited snow covers. We observed a coupling between snow transport and turbulent flow only in a weak saltation regime. In stronger regimes it self-organizes developing its own length scales and efficiently decoupling from the wind forcing.

How scaling fluctuation analyses can transform our view of the climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, Shaun; Schertzer, Daniel

2013-04-01

There exist a bewildering diversity of proxy climate data including tree rings, ice cores, lake varves, boreholes, ice cores, pollen, foraminifera, corals and speleothems. Their quantitative use raises numerous questions of interpretation and calibration. Even in classical cases - such as the isotope signal in ice cores - the usual assumption of linear dependence on ambient temperature is only a first approximation. In other cases - such as speleothems - the isotope signals arise from multiple causes (which are not always understood) and this hinders their widespread use. We argue that traditional interpretations and calibrations - based on essentially deterministic comparisons between instrumental data, model outputs and proxies (albeit with the help of uncertainty analyses) - have been both overly ambitious while simultaneously underexploiting the data. The former since comparisons typically involve series at different temporal resolutions and from different geographical locations - one does not expect agreement in a deterministic sense, while with respect to climate models, one only expects statistical correspondences. The proxies are underexploited since comparisons are done at unique temporal and / or spatial resolutions whereas the fluctuations they describe provide information over wide ranges of scale. A convenient method of overcoming these difficulties is the use of fluctuation analysis systematically applied over the full range of available scales to determine the scaling proeprties. The new transformative element presented here, is to define fluctuations ΔT in a series T(t) at scale Δt not by differences (ΔT(Δt) = T(t+Δt) - T(t)) but rather by the difference in the means over the first and second halves of the lag Δt . This seemingly minor change - technically from "poor man's" to "Haar" wavelets - turns out to make a huge difference since for example, it is adequate for analysing temperatures from seconds to hundreds of millions of years yet remaining simple to interpret [Lovejoy and Schertzer, 2012]. It has lead for example to the discovery of the new "macroweather" regime between weather (Δt <≈ 10days) and climate (Δt ≈> 30 yrs) in which fluctuations decrease rather than increase with scale [Lovejoy, 2013]. We illustrate the transformative power of combining such fluctuation analysis with scaling by giving numerous examples from instrumental data, multiproxies, ice core proxies, corals, speleothems and GCM outputs [Lovejoy and Schertzer, 2013]. References: Lovejoy, S. (2013), What is climate?, EOS, 94, (1), 1 January, p1-2. Lovejoy, S., and D. Schertzer (2012), Haar wavelets, fluctuations and structure functions: convenient choices for geophysics, Nonlinear Proc. Geophys. , 19, 1-14 doi: 10.5194/npg-19-1-2012. Lovejoy, S., and D. Schertzer (2013), The Weather and Climate: Emergent Laws and Multifractal Cascades, 480 pp., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Structure, functioning, and cumulative stressors of Mediterranean deep-sea ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tecchio, Samuele; Coll, Marta; Sardà, Francisco

2015-06-01

Environmental stressors, such as climate fluctuations, and anthropogenic stressors, such as fishing, are of major concern for the management of deep-sea ecosystems. Deep-water habitats are limited by primary productivity and are mainly dependent on the vertical input of organic matter from the surface. Global change over the latest decades is imparting variations in primary productivity levels across oceans, and thus it has an impact on the amount of organic matter landing on the deep seafloor. In addition, anthropogenic impacts are now reaching the deep ocean. The Mediterranean Sea, the largest enclosed basin on the planet, is not an exception. However, ecosystem-level studies of response to varying food input and anthropogenic stressors on deep-sea ecosystems are still scant. We present here a comparative ecological network analysis of three food webs of the deep Mediterranean Sea, with contrasting trophic structure. After modelling the flows of these food webs with the Ecopath with Ecosim approach, we compared indicators of network structure and functioning. We then developed temporal dynamic simulations varying the organic matter input to evaluate its potential effect. Results show that, following the west-to-east gradient in the Mediterranean Sea of marine snow input, organic matter recycling increases, net production decreases to negative values and trophic organisation is overall reduced. The levels of food-web activity followed the gradient of organic matter availability at the seafloor, confirming that deep-water ecosystems directly depend on marine snow and are therefore influenced by variations of energy input, such as climate-driven changes. In addition, simulations of varying marine snow arrival at the seafloor, combined with the hypothesis of a possible fishery expansion on the lower continental slope in the western basin, evidence that the trawling fishery may pose an impact which could be an order of magnitude stronger than a climate-driven reduction of marine snow.

Estuary-ocean connectivity: Fast physics, slow biology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raimonet, Mélanie; Cloern, James E.

2017-01-01

Estuaries are connected to both land and ocean so their physical, chemical, and biological dynamics are influenced by climate patterns over watersheds and ocean basins. We explored climate-driven oceanic variability as a source of estuarine variability by comparing monthly time series of temperature and chlorophyll-a inside San Francisco Bay with those in adjacent shelf waters of the California Current System (CCS) that are strongly responsive to wind-driven upwelling. Monthly temperature fluctuations inside and outside the Bay were synchronous, but their correlations weakened with distance from the ocean. These results illustrate how variability of coastal water temperature (and associated properties such as nitrate and oxygen) propagates into estuaries through fast water exchanges that dissipate along the estuary. Unexpectedly, there was no correlation between monthly chlorophyll-a variability inside and outside the Bay. However, at the annual scale Bay chlorophyll-a was significantly correlated with the Spring Transition Index (STI) that sets biological production supporting fish recruitment in the CCS. Wind forcing of the CCS shifted in the late 1990s when the STI advanced 40 days. This shift was followed, with lags of 1–3 years, by 3- to 19-fold increased abundances of five ocean-produced demersal fish and crustaceans and 2.5-fold increase of summer chlorophyll-a in the Bay. These changes reflect a slow biological process of estuary–ocean connectivity operating through the immigration of fish and crustaceans that prey on bivalves, reduce their grazing pressure, and allow phytoplankton biomass to build. We identified clear signals of climate-mediated oceanic variability in this estuary and discovered that the response patterns vary with the process of connectivity and the timescale of ocean variability. This result has important implications for managing nutrient inputs to estuaries connected to upwelling systems, and for assessing their responses to changing patterns of upwelling timing and intensity as the planet continues to warm.

Constant diurnal temperature regime alters the impact of simulated climate warming on a tropical pseudoscorpion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeh, Jeanne A.; Bonilla, Melvin M.; Su, Eleanor J.; Padua, Michael V.; Anderson, Rachel V.; Zeh, David W.

2014-01-01

Recent theory suggests that global warming may be catastrophic for tropical ectotherms. Although most studies addressing temperature effects in ectotherms utilize constant temperatures, Jensen's inequality and thermal stress considerations predict that this approach will underestimate warming effects on species experiencing daily temperature fluctuations in nature. Here, we tested this prediction in a neotropical pseudoscorpion. Nymphs were reared in control and high-temperature treatments under a constant daily temperature regime, and results compared to a companion fluctuating-temperature study. At constant temperature, pseudoscorpions outperformed their fluctuating-temperature counterparts. Individuals were larger, developed faster, and males produced more sperm, and females more embryos. The greatest impact of temperature regime involved short-term, adult exposure, with constant temperature mitigating high-temperature effects on reproductive traits. Our findings demonstrate the importance of realistic temperature regimes in climate warming studies, and suggest that exploitation of microhabitats that dampen temperature oscillations may be critical in avoiding extinction as tropical climates warm.

Data driven approaches vs. qualitative approaches in climate change impact and vulnerability assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello

2015-04-01

In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.

Magnetic Fluctuation-Driven Intrinsic Flow in a Toroidal Plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brower, D. L.; Ding, W. X.; Lin, L.; Almagri, A. F.; den Hartog, D. J.; Sarff, J. S.

2012-10-01

Magnetic fluctuations have been long observed in various magnetic confinement configurations. These perturbations may arise naturally from plasma instabilities such as tearing modes and energetic particle driven modes, but they can also be externally imposed by error fields or external magnetic coils. It is commonly observed that large MHD modes lead to plasma locking (no rotation) due to torque produced by eddy currents on the wall, and it is predicted that stochastic field induces flow damping where the radial electric field is reduced. Flow generation is of great importance to fusion plasma research, especially low-torque devices like ITER, as it can act to improve performance. Here we describe new measurements in the MST reversed field pinch (RFP) showing that the coherent interaction of magnetic and particle density fluctuations can produce a turbulent fluctuation-induced kinetic force, which acts to drive intrinsic plasma rotation. Key observations include; (1) the average kinetic force resulting from density fluctuations, ˜ 0.5 N/m^3, is comparable to the intrinsic flow acceleration, and (2) between sawtooth crashes, the spatial distribution of the kinetic force is directed to create a sheared parallel flow profile that is consistent with the measured flow profile in direction and amplitude, suggesting the kinetic force is responsible for intrinsic plasma rotation.

Final Report: Synthesis of aquatic climate change vulnerability assessments for the Interior West

Treesearch

Megan M. Friggens; Carly K. Woodlief

2015-01-01

Water is a critical resource for humans and ecological systems in the western United States. Aquatic ecosystems including lakes, rivers, riparian areas and wetlands, are at high risk of climate impacts because they experience relatively high exposure to climate fluctuations and extremes. In turn, impacts arising from climate change are far reaching because these...

Structure and Function of Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations: Mind the Gaps.

PubMed

Battipaglia, Giovanna; Campelo, Filipe; Vieira, Joana; Grabner, Michael; De Micco, Veronica; Nabais, Cristina; Cherubini, Paolo; Carrer, Marco; Bräuning, Achim; Čufar, Katarina; Di Filippo, Alfredo; García-González, Ignacio; Koprowski, Marcin; Klisz, Marcin; Kirdyanov, Alexander V; Zafirov, Nikolay; de Luis, Martin

2016-01-01

Tree rings are natural archives of climate and environmental information with a yearly resolution. Indeed, wood anatomical, chemical, and other properties of tree rings are a synthesis of several intrinsic and external factors, and their interaction during tree growth. In particular, Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations (IADFs) can be considered as tree-ring anomalies that can be used to better understand tree growth and to reconstruct past climate conditions with intra-annual resolution. However, the ecophysiological processes behind IADF formation, as well as their functional impact, remain unclear. Are IADFs resulting from a prompt adjustment to fluctuations in environmental conditions to avoid stressful conditions and/or to take advantage from favorable conditions? In this paper we discuss: (1) the influence of climatic factors on the formation of IADFs; (2) the occurrence of IADFs in different species and environments; (3) the potential of new approaches to study IADFs and identify their triggering factors. Our final aim is to underscore the advantages offered by network analyses of data and the importance of high-resolution measurements to gain insight into IADFs formation processes and their relations with climatic conditions, including extreme weather events.

Structure and Function of Intra–Annual Density Fluctuations: Mind the Gaps

PubMed Central

Battipaglia, Giovanna; Campelo, Filipe; Vieira, Joana; Grabner, Michael; De Micco, Veronica; Nabais, Cristina; Cherubini, Paolo; Carrer, Marco; Bräuning, Achim; Čufar, Katarina; Di Filippo, Alfredo; García-González, Ignacio; Koprowski, Marcin; Klisz, Marcin; Kirdyanov, Alexander V.; Zafirov, Nikolay; de Luis, Martin

2016-01-01

Tree rings are natural archives of climate and environmental information with a yearly resolution. Indeed, wood anatomical, chemical, and other properties of tree rings are a synthesis of several intrinsic and external factors, and their interaction during tree growth. In particular, Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations (IADFs) can be considered as tree-ring anomalies that can be used to better understand tree growth and to reconstruct past climate conditions with intra-annual resolution. However, the ecophysiological processes behind IADF formation, as well as their functional impact, remain unclear. Are IADFs resulting from a prompt adjustment to fluctuations in environmental conditions to avoid stressful conditions and/or to take advantage from favorable conditions? In this paper we discuss: (1) the influence of climatic factors on the formation of IADFs; (2) the occurrence of IADFs in different species and environments; (3) the potential of new approaches to study IADFs and identify their triggering factors. Our final aim is to underscore the advantages offered by network analyses of data and the importance of high-resolution measurements to gain insight into IADFs formation processes and their relations with climatic conditions, including extreme weather events. PMID:27200063

Fluctuations in the East Asian monsoon recorded by pollen assemblages in sediments from the Japan Sea off the southwestern coast of Hokkaido, Japan, from 4.3 Ma to the present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Igarashi, Yaeko; Irino, Tomohisa; Sawada, Ken; Song, Lu; Furota, Satoshi

2018-04-01

We reconstructed fluctuations in the East Asian monsoon and vegetation in the Japan Sea region since the middle Pliocene based on pollen data obtained from sediments collected by the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program off the southwestern coast of northern Japan. Taxodiaceae conifers Metasequoia and Cryptomeria and Sciadopityacere conifer Sciadopitys are excellent indicators of a humid climate during the monsoon. The pollen temperature index (Tp) can be used as a proxy for relative air temperature. Based on changes in vegetation and reconstructed climate over a period of 4.3 Ma, we classified the sediment sequence into six pollen zones. From 4.3 to 3.8 Ma (Zone 1), the climate fluctuated between cool/moist and warm/moist climatic conditions. Vegetation changed between warm temperate mixed forest and cool temperate conifer forest. The Neogene type tree Carya recovered under a warm/moist climate. The period from 3.8 to 2.5 Ma (Zone 2) was characterized by increased Metasequoia pollen concentration. Warm temperate mixed forest vegetation developed under a cool/moist climate. The period from 2.5 to 2.2 Ma (Zone 3) was characterized by an abrupt increase in Metasequoia and/or Cryptomeria pollen and a decrease in warm broadleaf tree pollen, indicating a cool/humid climate. The Zone 4 period (2.2-1.7 Ma) was characterized by a decrease in Metasequoia and/or Cryptomeria pollen and an increase in cool temperate conifer Picea and Tsuga pollen, indicating a cool/moist climate. The period from 1.7 to 0.3 Ma (Zone 5) was characterized by orbital-scale climate fluctuations. Cycles of abrupt increases and decreases in Cryptomeria and Picea pollen and in Tp values indicated changes between warm/humid and cold/dry climates. The alpine fern Selaginella selaginoides appeared as of 1.6 Ma. Vegetation alternated among warm mixed, cool mixed, and cool temperate conifer forests. Zone 6 (0.3 Ma to present) was characterized by a decrease in Cryptomeria pollen. The warm temperate broadleaf forest and cool temperate conifer forest developed alternately under warm/moist and cold/dry climate. Zone 2 corresponded to a weak Tsushima Current breaking through the Tsushima Strait, and the beginning of orbital-scale climatic changes at 1.7 Ma during Zone 5 corresponded to the strong inflow of the Tsushima Current into the Japan Sea during interglacial periods (Gallagher et al., 2015).

Fluctuations in Mass-Action Equilibrium of Protein Binding Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Koon-Kiu; Walker, Dylan; Maslov, Sergei

2008-12-01

We consider two types of fluctuations in the mass-action equilibrium in protein binding networks. The first type is driven by slow changes in total concentrations of interacting proteins. The second type (spontaneous) is caused by quickly decaying thermodynamic deviations away from equilibrium. We investigate the effects of network connectivity on fluctuations by comparing them to scenarios in which the interacting pair is isolated from the network and analytically derives bounds on fluctuations. Collective effects are shown to sometimes lead to large amplification of spontaneous fluctuations. The strength of both types of fluctuations is positively correlated with the complex connectivity and negatively correlated with complex concentration. Our general findings are illustrated using a curated network of protein interactions and multiprotein complexes in baker’s yeast, with empirical protein concentrations.

Statistical structure of intrinsic climate variability under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xiuhua; Bye, John; Fraedrich, Klaus

2017-04-01

Climate variability is often studied in terms of fluctuations with respect to the mean state, whereas the dependence between the mean and variability is rarely discussed. We propose a new climate metric to measure the relationship between means and standard deviations of annual surface temperature computed over non-overlapping 100-year segments. This metric is analyzed based on equilibrium simulations of the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM): the last millennium climate (800-1799), the future climate projection following the A1B scenario (2100-2199), and the 3100-year unforced control simulation. A linear relationship is globally observed in the control simulation and thus termed intrinsic climate variability, which is most pronounced in the tropical region with negative regression slopes over the Pacific warm pool and positive slopes in the eastern tropical Pacific. It relates to asymmetric changes in temperature extremes and associates fluctuating climate means with increase or decrease in intensity and occurrence of both El Niño and La Niña events. In the future scenario period, the linear regression slopes largely retain their spatial structure with appreciable changes in intensity and geographical locations. Since intrinsic climate variability describes the internal rhythm of the climate system, it may serve as guidance for interpreting climate variability and climate change signals in the past and the future.

Tropical nighttime warming as a dominant driver of variability in the terrestrial carbon sink

Treesearch

William R. L. Anderegg; Ashley P. Ballantyne; W. Kolby Smith; Joseph Majkut; Sam Rabin; Claudie Beaulieu; Richard Birdsey; John P. Dunne; Richard A. Houghton; Ranga B. Myneni; Yude Pan; Jorge L. Sarmiento; Nathan Serota; Elena Shevliakova; Pieter Tans; Stephen W. Pacala

2015-01-01

The terrestrial biosphere is currently a strong carbon (C) sink but may switch to a source in the 21st century as climate-driven losses exceed CO2-driven C gains, thereby accelerating global warming. Although it has long been recognized that tropical climate plays a critical role in regulating interannual climate variability, the causal link...

O the Interpretation of Climatic Change from the Fossil Record: Climatic Change in Central and Eastern United States for the Past 2000 Years Estimated from Pollen Data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gajewski, Konrad J.

Pollen records from varved-lake sediments at seven locations in the northeastern United States record late Holocene climate changes over the past 1000-2000 years. Simplification of pollen diagrams by principal component analysis documents that climate changes affect vegetation at all sites, and not just at "sensitive" sites or ecotones. All seven pollen records show a long-term trend, medium frequency oscillations and higher frequency fluctuations. The between-site similarity of the trend and the coherency of the medium frequency oscillations demonstrates the importance of climate forcing to vegetation change at these scales. Response of vegetation to a climatic change is quite rapid, and depends not only on the nature of the climate fluctuation, but also on the pre-existing state of the vegetation. Multiple regression and canonical correlation techniques were used to calculate calibration functions from a spatial network of modern pollen and climate data. When analyzed at comparable scales, the spatial distribution of pollen assemblages in northeastern United States are related both to summer temperature and annual precipitation. Although summer temperature and annual precipitation are coupled, this coupling is not so strong as to negate the use of univariate calibration models. Over the 2000-year period of time, a gradual summer cooling of about 1.0(DEGREES)C/1000 years has occurred. Superimposed on the long-term trend are medium frequency temperature fluctuations of amplitude about 0.5(DEGREES)C that persist for several centuries. Annual precipitation is relatively constant, except for a period of increased rainfall from 600 years ago to the present in southern Maine.

Numerical simulation of geomorphic, climatic and anthropogenic drivers of soil distribution on semi-arid hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willgoose, G. R.; Cohen, S.; Svoray, T.; Sela, S.; Hancock, G. R.

2010-12-01

Numerical models are an important tool for studying landscape processes as they allow us to isolate specific processes and drivers and test various physics and spatio-temporal scenarios. Here we use a distributed physically-based soil evolution model (mARM4D) to describe the drivers and processes controlling soil-landscape evolution on a field-site at the fringe between the Mediterranean and desert regions of Israel. This study is an initial effort in a larger project aimed at improving our understanding of the mechanisms and drivers that led to the extensive removal of soils from the loess covered hillslopes of this region. This specific region is interesting as it is located between the Mediterranean climate region in which widespread erosion from hillslopes was attributed to human activity during the Holocene and the arid region in which extensive removal of loess from hillslopes was shown to have been driven by climatic changes during the late-Pleistocene. First we study the sediment transport mechanism of the soil-landscape evolution processes in our study-site. We simulate soil-landscape evolution with only one sediment transport process (fluvial or diffusive) at a time. We find that diffusive sediment transport is likely the dominant process in this site as it resulted in soil distributions that better corresponds to current observations. We then simulate several realistic climatic/anthropogenic scenarios (based on the literature) in order to quantify the sensitivity of the soil-landscape evolution process to temporal fluctuations. We find that this site is relatively insensitive to short term (several thousands of years) sharp, changes. This suggests that climate, rather then human activity, was the main driver for the extensive removal of loess from the hillslopes.

Great Basin paleoenvironmental studies project; Third quarterly technical progress report, December 1993--February 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1994-04-01

Examination of the paleolithic and geomorphic records to determine the local and regional impact of past climates will advance assessment of Yucca Mountain`s suitability as a high-level nuclear waste repository. The project includes the integration of botanical, faunal, and geomorphic components to accomplish this goal. Paleobotanical studies will reconstruct the response of vegetation to climate change at the community and the organismal levels by integrating data obtained from nearly continuous sediment records of pollen, plant macrofossils, and stable isotopes from fossil woodrat middens. The goal of the paleofaunas study is to construct a history of Great Basin vertebrates, particularly mammals,more » that will provide empirical evidence of past environmental and climatic conditions within the Great Basin as it is recorded by the animals. Taxonomic composition of archaeological and paleontological faunas from various areas within the Great Basin and morphological change within individual mammalian taxa at specific localities are being investigated to monitor faunal response to changing environmental conditions. The objective of the geomorphology component of the paleoenvironmental program is to document the responses of surficial processes and landforms to the climatic changes documented by studies of packrat middens, pollen, and faunal distributions. The project will focus on: (1) stratigraphic relationships between lake deposits and aeolian or fluvial sediments and landforms; (2) cut and fill sequences in floodplain and river-channel deposits; (3) identification of periods of dune mobility and stability; (4) documentation of episodes of alluvial fan and terrace development and erosion; and (5) correlation of (3) and (4) to climatically driven lake-level fluctuation as revealed by shoreline features such as strandlines and beach ridges. Accomplishments for this period are presented for these studies.« less

Climate-scale modelling of suspended sediment load in an Alpine catchment debris flow (Rio Cordon-northeastern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diodato, Nazzareno; Mao, Luca; Borrelli, Pasquale; Panagos, Panos; Fiorillo, Francesco; Bellocchi, Gianni

2018-05-01

Pulsing storms and prolonged rainfall can drive hydrological damaging events in mountain regions with soil erosion and debris flow in river catchments. The paper presents a parsimonious model for estimating climate forcing on sediment loads in an Alpine catchment (Rio Cordon, northeastern Italian Alps). Hydroclimatic forcing was interpreted by the novel CliSMSSL (Climate-Scale Modelling of Suspended Sediment Load) model to estimate annual sediment loads. We used annual data on suspended-solid loads monitored at an experimental station from 1987 to 2001 and on monthly precipitation data. The quality of sediment load data was critically examined, and one outlying year was identified and removed from further analyses. This outlier revealed that our model underestimates exceptionally high sediment loads in years characterized by a severe flood event. For all other years, the CliSMSSL performed well, with a determination coefficient (R2) equal to 0.67 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 129 Mg y-1. The calibrated model for the period 1986-2010 was used to reconstruct sediment loads in the river catchment for historical times when detailed precipitation records are not available. For the period 1810-2010, the model results indicate that the past centuries have been characterized by large interannual to interdecadal fluctuations in the conditions affecting sediment loads. This paper argues that climate-induced erosion processes in Alpine areas and their impact on environment should be given more attention in discussions about climate-driven strategies. Future work should focus on delineating the extents of these findings (e.g., at other catchments of the European Alpine belt) as well as investigating the dynamics for the formation of sediment loads.

Precipitation driven decadal scale decline and recovery of wetlands of Lake Pannon during the Tortonian

PubMed Central

Kern, Andrea K.; Harzhauser, Mathias; Soliman, Ali; Piller, Werner E.; Gross, Martin

2012-01-01

High resolution pollen and dinoflagellate analyses were performed on a continuous 98-cm-long core from Tortonian deposits of Lake Pannon in the Styrian Basin in Austria. The sample distance of 1-cm corresponds to a resolution of roughly one decade, allowing insights into environmental and climatic changes over a millennium of Late Miocene time. Shifts in lake level, surface water productivity on a decadal- to centennial-scale can be explained by variations of rainfall during the Tortonian climatic optimum. Related to negative fine scale shifts of mean annual precipitation, shoreline vegetation belts reacted in an immediate replacement of Poaceae by Cyperaceae as dominant grasses in the marshes fringing the lake. In contrast to such near-synchronous ecosystem-responses to precipitation, a delayed lake level rise of 4–6 decades is evident in the hydrological budget of Lake Pannon. This transgression, caused by a precipitation increase up to > 1200 mm/yr, resulted in a complete dieback of marshes. Simultaneously, “open-water” dinoflagellates, such as Impagidinium, took over in the brackish lagoon and fresh water dinoflagellates disappeared. As soon as the rainfall switched back to moderate levels of ~ 1100–1200 mm/yr, the rise of the lake level slowed down, the marsh plants could keep up again and the former vegetation belts became re-established. Thus, mean annual precipitation, more than temperature, was the main driving force for high-frequency fluctuations in the Tortonian wetlands and surface water conditions of Lake Pannon. Such high resolution studies focusing on Tortonian decadal to centennial climate change will be crucial to test climate models which try to compare the Tortonian models with predictions for future climate change. PMID:23576820

Multiproxy evidence of Holocene climate variability from estuarine sediments, eastern North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Thunell, R.; Dwyer, G.S.; Saenger, C.; Mann, M.E.; Vann, C.; Seal, R.R.

2005-01-01

We reconstructed paleoclimate patterns from oxygen and carbon isotope records from the fossil estuarine benthic foraminifera Elphidium and Mg/ Ca ratios from the ostracode Loxoconcha from sediment cores from Chesapeake Bay to examine the Holocene evolution of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-type climate variability. Precipitation-driven river discharge and regional temperature variability are the primary influences on Chesapeake Bay salinity and water temperature, respectively. We first calibrated modern ??18 Owater to salinity and applied this relationship to calculate trends in paleosalinity from the ??18 Oforam, correcting for changes in water temperature estimated from ostracode Mg /Ca ratios. The results indicate a much drier early Holocene in which mean paleosalinity was ???28 ppt in the northern bay, falling ???25% to ???20 ppt during the late Holocene. Early Holocene Mg/Ca-derived temperatures varied in a relatively narrow range of 13?? to 16??C with a mean temperature of 14.2??C and excursions above 16??C; the late Holocene was on average cooler (mean temperature of 12.8??C). In addition to the large contrast between early and late Holocene regional climate conditions, multidecadal (20-40 years) salinity and temperature variability is an inherent part of the region's climate during both the early and late Holocene, including the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. These patterns are similar to those observed during the twentieth century caused by NAO-related processes. Comparison of the midlatitude Chesapeake Bay salinity record with tropical climate records of Intertropical Convergence Zone fluctuations inferred from the Cariaco Basin titanium record suggests an anticorrelation between precipitation in the two regions at both millennial and centennial timescales. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Long-Term and Seasonal Dynamics of Dengue in Iquitos, Peru

PubMed Central

Stoddard, Steven T.; Wearing, Helen J.; Reiner, Robert C.; Morrison, Amy C.; Astete, Helvio; Vilcarromero, Stalin; Alvarez, Carlos; Ramal-Asayag, Cesar; Sihuincha, Moises; Rocha, Claudio; Halsey, Eric S.; Scott, Thomas W.; Kochel, Tadeusz J.; Forshey, Brett M.

2014-01-01

Introduction Long-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4) that potentially affect over half the world's population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data. Methods We studied 10 years (2000–2010) of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases. Findings Transmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001–2007) then DENV-4 (2008–2010). After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of ∼70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season. Conclusions Dengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos. PMID:25033412

The ecology of snowshoe hares in northern boreal forests [Chapter 6

Treesearch

Karen E. Hodges

2000-01-01

Snowshoe hares exhibit eight to 11 year population fluctuations across boreal North America, typically with an amplitude of 10 to 25 fold. These fluctuations are synchronous across the continent, with the most recent peak densities occurring in 1990 and 1991. The numeric cycle is driven by changes in survival and reproduction, with annual survival of adults...

Lacustrine records of Holocene climate and environmental change from the Lofoten Islands, Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balascio, Nicholas L.

Lakes sediments from the Lofoten Islands, Norway, can be used to generate well resolved records of past climate and environmental change. This dissertation presents three lacustrine paleoenvironmental reconstructions that show evidence for Holocene climate changes associated with North Atlantic climate dynamics and relative sea-level variations driven by glacio-isostatic adjustment. This study also uses distal tephra deposits (cryptotephra) from Icelandic volcanic eruptions to improve the chronologies of these reconstructions and explores new approaches to crypto-tephrochronology. Past and present conditions at Vikjordvatnet, Fiskebolvatnet, and Heimerdalsvatnet were studied during four field seasons conducted from 2007--2010. Initially, each lake was characterized by measuring water column chemistry, logging annual temperature fluctuations, and conducting bathymetric and seismic surveys. Sediment cores were then collected and analyzed using multiple techniques, including: sediment density, magnetic susceptibility, loss-on-ignition, total carbon and nitrogen, delta13C and delta 15N of organic matter, and elemental compositions acquired by scanning X-ray fluorescence. Chronologies were established using radiocarbon dating and tephrochronology. A 13.8 cal ka BP record from Vikjordvatnet provides evidence for glacial activity during the Younger Dryas cold interval and exhibits trends in Ti, Fe, and organic content during the Holocene that correlate with regional millennial-scale climate trends and provide evidence for more rapid events. A 9.7 cal ka BP record from Fiskebolvatnet shows a strong signal of sediment inwashing likely driven by local geomorphic conditions, although there is evidence that increased inwashing at the onset of the Neoglacial could have been associated with increased precipitation. Heimerdalsvatnet provides a record of relative sea-level change. A 7.8 cal ka BP sedimentary record reflects changes in salinity and water column conditions as the lake was isolated and defines sea-level regression following the Tapes transgression. Cryptotephra horizons were identified in sediments of Heimerdalsvatnet, Vikjordvatnet, and Sverigedalsvatn. They were also found in a Viking-age boathouse excavated along the shore of Inner Borgpollen. These include the GA4-85, BIP-24a, SILK-N2, Askja, 860 Layer B, Hekla 1158, Hekla 1104, Vedde Ash, and Saksunarvatn tephra. This research project also explored the use of scanning XRF to locate cryptotephra in lacustrine sediments and presents experimental results of XRF scans of tephra-spiked synthetic sediment cores.

Comparison of Solar and Other Influences on Long-term Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.; Lacis, Andrew A.; Ruedy, Reto A.

1990-01-01

Examples are shown of climate variability, and unforced climate fluctuations are discussed, as evidenced in both model simulations and observations. Then the author compares different global climate forcings, a comparison which by itself has significant implications. Finally, the author discusses a new climate simulation for the 1980s and 1990s which incorporates the principal known global climate forcings. The results indicate a likelihood of rapid global warming in the early 1990s.

On the data-driven inference of modulatory networks in climate science: an application to West African rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, D. L., II; Angus, M. P.; Tetteh, I. K.; Bello, G. A.; Padmanabhan, K.; Pendse, S. V.; Srinivas, S.; Yu, J.; Semazzi, F.; Kumar, V.; Samatova, N. F.

2014-04-01

Decades of hypothesis-driven and/or first-principles research have been applied towards the discovery and explanation of the mechanisms that drive climate phenomena, such as western African Sahel summer rainfall variability. Although connections between various climate factors have been theorized, not all of the key relationships are fully understood. We propose a data-driven approach to identify candidate players in this climate system, which can help explain underlying mechanisms and/or even suggest new relationships, to facilitate building a more comprehensive and predictive model of the modulatory relationships influencing a climate phenomenon of interest. We applied coupled heterogeneous association rule mining (CHARM), Lasso multivariate regression, and Dynamic Bayesian networks to find relationships within a complex system, and explored means with which to obtain a consensus result from the application of such varied methodologies. Using this fusion of approaches, we identified relationships among climate factors that modulate Sahel rainfall, including well-known associations from prior climate knowledge, as well as promising discoveries that invite further research by the climate science community.

Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.

PubMed

Nerem, R S; Beckley, B D; Fasullo, J T; Hamlington, B D; Masters, D; Mitchum, G T

2018-02-27

Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y 2 Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Seasonal and latitudinal acclimatization of cardiac transcriptome responses to thermal stress in porcelain crabs, Petrolisthes cinctipes.

PubMed

Stillman, Jonathon H; Tagmount, Abderrahmane

2009-10-01

Central predictions of climate warming models include increased climate variability and increased severity of heat waves. Physiological acclimatization in populations across large-scale ecological gradients in habitat temperature fluctuation is an important factor to consider in detecting responses to climate change related increases in thermal fluctuation. We measured in vivo cardiac thermal maxima and used microarrays to profile transcriptome heat and cold stress responses in cardiac tissue of intertidal zone porcelain crabs across biogeographic and seasonal gradients in habitat temperature fluctuation. We observed acclimatization dependent induction of heat shock proteins, as well as unknown genes with heat shock protein-like expression profiles. Thermal acclimatization had the largest effect on heat stress responses of extensin-like, beta tubulin, and unknown genes. For these genes, crabs acclimatized to thermally variable sites had higher constitutive expression than specimens from low variability sites, but heat stress dramatically induced expression in specimens from low variability sites and repressed expression in specimens from highly variable sites. Our application of ecological transcriptomics has yielded new biomarkers that may represent sensitive indicators of acclimatization to habitat temperature fluctuation. Our study also has identified novel genes whose further description may yield novel understanding of cellular responses to thermal acclimatization or thermal stress.

Lake level fluctuations boost toxic cyanobacterial "oligotrophic blooms".

PubMed

Callieri, Cristiana; Bertoni, Roberto; Contesini, Mario; Bertoni, Filippo

2014-01-01

Global warming has been shown to strongly influence inland water systems, producing noticeable increases in water temperatures. Rising temperatures, especially when combined with widespread nutrient pollution, directly favour the growth of toxic cyanobacteria. Climate changes have also altered natural water level fluctuations increasing the probability of extreme events as dry periods followed by heavy rains. The massive appearance of Dolichospermum lemmermannii ( = planktonic Anabaena), a toxic species absent from the pelagic zone of the subalpine oligotrophic Lake Maggiore before 2005, could be a consequence of the unusual fluctuations of lake level in recent years. We hypothesized that these fluctuations may favour the cyanobacterium as result of nutrient pulses from the biofilms formed in the littoral zone when the lake level is high. To help verify this, we exposed artificial substrates in the lake, and evaluated their nutrient enrichment and release after desiccation, together with measurements of fluctuations in lake level, precipitation and D. lemmermannii population. The highest percentage of P release and the lowest C:P molar ratio of released nutrients coincided with the summer appearance of the D. lemmermannii bloom. The P pulse indicates that fluctuations in level counteract nutrient limitation in this lake and it is suggested that this may apply more widely to other oligotrophic lakes. In view of the predicted increase in water level fluctuations due to climate change, it is important to try to minimize such fluctuations in order to mitigate the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms.

Changes of the transitional climate zone in East Asia: past and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lin; Chen, Wen; Huang, Gang; Zeng, Gang

2017-08-01

The transitional climate zone (TCZ) between humid and arid regions in East Asia is characterized by sharp climate and biome gradients, interaction between the East Asian summer monsoon and the mid-latitude westerly winds and mixed agriculture-pasture activities. Consequently, it is highly vulnerable to natural disturbances and particularly human-driven global change. This study aims to illuminate the spatial and temporal variation of TCZ across both the retrospective and the prospective periods. In the historical period, both the front and rear edges of TCZ exhibit wide year-to-year excursions and have experienced coastward migration with increasing aridity throughout TCZ. Furthermore, precipitation fluctuation mainly contributes to interannual variability of TCZ whereas potential evaporation behavior dominates the long-term trends of TCZ. Models are capable of largely reproducing the shape and orientation of TCZ, although northwestward bias is apparent. In global warming scenario period, there will be continuing southeastward displacement for the front edge but the opposite northwestward movement is projected for the rear one, as a consequence of significant drying trends in the humid zone together with regime shifts towards humid conditions in the arid zone. Despite expanded TCZ sector, however, the available water resources inside it suffer little magnitude changes without preferential tendency towards either drier or wetter conditions, implying neither deleterious nor beneficial effects on the TCZ environment. Moreover, interannual variability of TCZ is expected to become stronger, resulting in more frequent occurrences of extreme swings. Finally, it is noted that uncertainty arising from climate models dominates in the TCZ than dispersed emission scenarios, in contrast to the situation in humid and arid zones.

The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems

PubMed Central

Woodward, Guy; Bonada, Núria; Brown, Lee E.; Death, Russell G.; Durance, Isabelle; Gray, Clare; Hladyz, Sally; Ledger, Mark E.; Milner, Alexander M.; Ormerod, Steve J.; Thompson, Ross M.

2016-01-01

Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world. PMID:27114576

Dancing with the Tides: Fluctuations of Coastal Phytoplankton Orchestrated by Different Oscillatory Modes of the Tidal Cycle

PubMed Central

Blauw, Anouk N.; Benincà, Elisa; Laane, Remi W. P. M.; Greenwood, Naomi; Huisman, Jef

2012-01-01

Population fluctuations are often driven by an interplay between intrinsic population processes and extrinsic environmental forcing. To investigate this interplay, we analyzed fluctuations in coastal phytoplankton concentration in relation to the tidal cycle. Time series of chlorophyll fluorescence, suspended particulate matter (SPM), salinity and temperature were obtained from an automated measuring platform in the southern North Sea, covering 9 years of data at a resolution of 12 to 30 minutes. Wavelet analysis showed that chlorophyll fluctuations were dominated by periodicities of 6 hours 12 min, 12 hours 25 min, 24 hours and 15 days, which correspond to the typical periodicities of tidal current speeds, the semidiurnal tidal cycle, the day-night cycle, and the spring-neap tidal cycle, respectively. During most of the year, chlorophyll and SPM fluctuated in phase with tidal current speed, indicative of alternating periods of sinking and vertical mixing of algal cells and SPM driven by the tidal cycle. Spring blooms slowly built up over several spring-neap tidal cycles, and subsequently expanded in late spring when a strong decline of the SPM concentration during neap tide enabled a temporary “escape” of the chlorophyll concentration from the tidal mixing regime. Our results demonstrate that the tidal cycle is a major determinant of phytoplankton fluctuations at several different time scales. These findings imply that high-resolution monitoring programs are essential to capture the natural variability of phytoplankton in coastal waters. PMID:23166639

Dancing with the tides: fluctuations of coastal phytoplankton orchestrated by different oscillatory modes of the tidal cycle.

PubMed

Blauw, Anouk N; Benincà, Elisa; Laane, Remi W P M; Greenwood, Naomi; Huisman, Jef

2012-01-01

Population fluctuations are often driven by an interplay between intrinsic population processes and extrinsic environmental forcing. To investigate this interplay, we analyzed fluctuations in coastal phytoplankton concentration in relation to the tidal cycle. Time series of chlorophyll fluorescence, suspended particulate matter (SPM), salinity and temperature were obtained from an automated measuring platform in the southern North Sea, covering 9 years of data at a resolution of 12 to 30 minutes. Wavelet analysis showed that chlorophyll fluctuations were dominated by periodicities of 6 hours 12 min, 12 hours 25 min, 24 hours and 15 days, which correspond to the typical periodicities of tidal current speeds, the semidiurnal tidal cycle, the day-night cycle, and the spring-neap tidal cycle, respectively. During most of the year, chlorophyll and SPM fluctuated in phase with tidal current speed, indicative of alternating periods of sinking and vertical mixing of algal cells and SPM driven by the tidal cycle. Spring blooms slowly built up over several spring-neap tidal cycles, and subsequently expanded in late spring when a strong decline of the SPM concentration during neap tide enabled a temporary "escape" of the chlorophyll concentration from the tidal mixing regime. Our results demonstrate that the tidal cycle is a major determinant of phytoplankton fluctuations at several different time scales. These findings imply that high-resolution monitoring programs are essential to capture the natural variability of phytoplankton in coastal waters.

Continuous information flow fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosinberg, Martin Luc; Horowitz, Jordan M.

2016-10-01

Information plays a pivotal role in the thermodynamics of nonequilibrium processes with feedback. However, much remains to be learned about the nature of information fluctuations in small-scale devices and their relation with fluctuations in other thermodynamics quantities, like heat and work. Here we derive a series of fluctuation theorems for information flow and partial entropy production in a Brownian particle model of feedback cooling and extend them to arbitrary driven diffusion processes. We then analyze the long-time behavior of the feedback-cooling model in detail. Our results provide insights into the structure and origin of large deviations of information and thermodynamic quantities in autonomous Maxwell's demons.

Determination of the Thermal Noise Limit of Graphene Biotransistors.

PubMed

Crosser, Michael S; Brown, Morgan A; McEuen, Paul L; Minot, Ethan D

2015-08-12

To determine the thermal noise limit of graphene biotransistors, we have measured the complex impedance between the basal plane of single-layer graphene and an aqueous electrolyte. The impedance is dominated by an imaginary component but has a finite real component. Invoking the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, we determine the power spectral density of thermally driven voltage fluctuations at the graphene/electrolyte interface. The fluctuations have 1/f(p) dependence, with p = 0.75-0.85, and the magnitude of fluctuations scales inversely with area. Our results explain noise spectra previously measured in liquid-gated suspended graphene devices and provide realistic targets for future device performance.

Youth Climate Summits: Empowering & Engaging Youth to Lead on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kretser, J.

2017-12-01

The Wild Center's Youth Climate Summits is a program that engages youth in climate literacy from knowledge and understanding to developing action in their schools and communities. Each Youth Climate Summit is a one to three day event that brings students and teachers together to learn about climate change science, impacts and solutions at a global and local level. Through speakers, workshops and activities, the Summit culminates in a student-driven Climate Action Plan that can be brought back to schools and communities. The summits have been found to be powerful vehicles for inspiration, learning, community engagement and youth leadership development. Climate literacy with a focus on local climate impacts and solutions is a key component of the Youth Climate Summit. The project-based learning surrounding the creation of a unique, student driven, sustainability and Climate Action Plan promotes leadership skills applicable and the tools necessary for a 21st Century workforce. Student driven projects range from school gardens and school energy audits to working with NYS officials to commit to going 100% renewable electricty at the three state-owned downhill ski facilities. The summit model has been scaled and replicated in other communities in New York State, Vermont, Ohio, Michigan and Washington states as well as internationally in Finland, Germany and Sri Lanka.

Active DNA gels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleh, Omar A.; Fygenson, Deborah K.; Bertrand, Olivier J. N.; Park, Chang Young

2013-02-01

Research into the mechanics and fluctuations of living cells has revealed the key role played by the cytoskeleton, a gel of stiff filaments driven out of equilibrium by force-generating motor proteins. Inspired by the extraordinary mechanical functions that the cytoskeleton imparts to the cell, we sought to create an artificial gel with similar characteristics. We identified DNA, and DNA-based motor proteins, as functional counterparts to the constituents of the cytoskeleton. We used DNA selfassembly to create a gel, and characterized its fluctuations and mechanics both before and after activation by the motor. We found that certain aspects of the DNA gel quantitatively match those of cytoskeletal networks, indicating the universal features of motor-driven, non-equilibrium networks.

Generic analysis of kinetically driven inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saitou, Rio

2018-04-01

We perform a model-independent analysis of kinetically driven inflation (KDI) which (partially) includes generalized G-inflation and ghost inflation. We evaluate the background evolution splitting into the inflationary attractor and the perturbation around it. We also consider the quantum fluctuation of the scalar mode with a usual scaling and derive the spectral index, ignoring the contribution from the second-order products of slow-roll parameters. Using these formalisms, we find that within our generic framework the models of KDI which possess the shift symmetry of scalar field cannot create the quantum fluctuation consistent with the observation. Breaking the shift symmetry, we obtain a few essential conditions for viable models of KDI associated with the graceful exit.

Inverse energy cascade and emergence of large coherent vortices in turbulence driven by Faraday waves.

PubMed

Francois, N; Xia, H; Punzmann, H; Shats, M

2013-05-10

We report the generation of large coherent vortices via inverse energy cascade in Faraday wave driven turbulence. The motion of floaters in the Faraday waves is three dimensional, but its horizontal velocity fluctuations show unexpected similarity with two-dimensional turbulence. The inverse cascade is detected by measuring frequency spectra of the Lagrangian velocity, and it is confirmed by computing the third moment of the horizontal velocity fluctuations. This is observed in deep water in a broad range of wavelengths and vertical accelerations. The results broaden the scope of recent findings on Faraday waves in thin layers [A. von Kameke et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 107, 074502 (2011)].

Flow-driven rotor simulation of vertical axis tidal turbines: A comparison of helical and straight blades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Tuyen Quang; Lee, Kwang-Soo; Park, Jin-Soon; Ko, Jin Hwan

2014-06-01

In this study, flow-driven rotor simulations with a given load are conducted to analyze the operational characteristics of a vertical-axis Darrieus turbine, specifically its self-starting capability and fluctuations in its torque as well as the RPM. These characteristics are typically observed in experiments, though they cannot be acquired in simulations with a given tip speed ratio (TSR). First, it is shown that a flow-driven rotor simulation with a two-dimensional (2D) turbine model obtains power coefficients with curves similar to those obtained in a simulation with a given TSR. 3D flowdriven rotor simulations with an optimal geometry then show that a helical-bladed turbine has the following prominent advantages over a straight-bladed turbine of the same size: an improvement of its self-starting capabilities and reduced fluctuations in its torque and RPM curves as well as an increase in its power coefficient from 33% to 42%. Therefore, it is clear that a flow-driven rotor simulation provides more information for the design of a Darrieus turbine than a simulation with a given TSR before experiments.

Interannual bumble bee abundance is driven by indirect climate effects on floral resource phenology.

PubMed

Ogilvie, Jane E; Griffin, Sean R; Gezon, Zachariah J; Inouye, Brian D; Underwood, Nora; Inouye, David W; Irwin, Rebecca E

2017-12-01

Climate change can influence consumer populations both directly, by affecting survival and reproduction, and indirectly, by altering resources. However, little is known about the relative importance of direct and indirect effects, particularly for species important to ecosystem functioning, like pollinators. We used structural equation modelling to test the importance of direct and indirect (via floral resources) climate effects on the interannual abundance of three subalpine bumble bee species. In addition, we used long-term data to examine how climate and floral resources have changed over time. Over 8 years, bee abundances were driven primarily by the indirect effects of climate on the temporal distribution of floral resources. Over 43 years, aspects of floral phenology changed in ways that indicate species-specific effects on bees. Our study suggests that climate-driven alterations in floral resource phenology can play a critical role in governing bee population responses to global change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology.

PubMed

Reager, J T; Gardner, A S; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Eicker, A; Lo, M-H

2016-02-12

Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Temporal fluctuations after a quantum quench: Many-particle dephasing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marquardt, Florian; Kiendl, Thomas

After a quantum quench, the expectation values of observables continue to fluctuate in time. In the thermodynamic limit, one expects such fluctuations to decrease to zero, in order for standard statistical physics to hold. However, it is a challenge to determine analytically how the fluctuations decay as a function of system size. So far, there have been analytical predictions for integrable models (which are, naturally, somewhat special), analytical bounds for arbitrary systems, and numerical results for moderate-size systems. We have discovered a dynamical regime where the decrease of fluctuations is driven by many-particle dephasing, instead of a redistribution of occupation numbers. On the basis of this insight, we are able to provide exact analytical expressions for a model with weak integrability breaking (transverse Ising chain with additional terms). These predictions explicitly show how fluctuations are exponentially suppressed with system size.

The lesser known challenge of climate change: thermal variance and sex-reversal in vertebrates with temperature-dependent sex determination.

PubMed

Neuwald, Jennifer L; Valenzuela, Nicole

2011-03-23

Climate change is expected to disrupt biological systems. Particularly susceptible are species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), as in many reptiles. While the potentially devastating effect of rising mean temperatures on sex ratios in TSD species is appreciated, the consequences of increased thermal variance predicted to accompany climate change remain obscure. Surprisingly, no study has tested if the effect of thermal variance around high-temperatures (which are particularly relevant given climate change predictions) has the same or opposite effects as around lower temperatures. Here we show that sex ratios of the painted turtle (Chrysemys picta) were reversed as fluctuations increased around low and high unisexual mean-temperatures. Unexpectedly, the developmental and sexual responses around female-producing temperatures were decoupled in a more complex manner than around male-producing values. Our novel observations are not fully explained by existing ecological models of development and sex determination, and provide strong evidence that thermal fluctuations are critical for shaping the biological outcomes of climate change.

Investigating Non-Equilibrium Fluctuations of Nanocolloids in a Magnetic Field Using Direct Imaging Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, Ashley; Oprisan, Ana; Oprisan, Sorinel; Rice-Oprisan College of Charleston Team

Nanoparticles of iron oxide have a high surface area and can be controlled by an external magnetic field. Since they have a fast response to the applied magnetic field, these systems have been used for numerous in vivo applications, such as MRI contrast enhancement, tissue repair, immunoassay, detoxification of biological fluids, hyperthermia, drug delivery, and cell separation. We performed three direct imaging experiments in order to investigate the concentration-driven fluctuations using magnetic nanoparticles in the absence and in the presence of magnetic field. Our direct imaging experimental setup involved a glass cell filled with magnetic nanocolloidal suspension and water with the concentration gradient oriented against the gravitational field and a superluminescent diode (SLD) as the light source. Nonequilibrium concentration-driven fluctuations were recorded using a direct imaging technique. We used a dynamic structure factor algorithm for image processing in order to compute the structure factor and to find the power law exponents. We saw evidence of large concentration fluctuations and permanent magnetism. Further research will use the correlation time to approximate the diffusion coefficient for the free diffusion experiment. Funded by College of Charleston Department of Undergraduate Research and Creative Activities SURF grant.

Measurements of Impurity Particle Transport Associated with Drift-Wave Turbulence in MST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishizawa, Takashi; Nornberg, Mark; Boguski, John; Craig, Darren; den Hartog, Daniel; Pueschel, M. J.; Sarff, John; Terry, Paul; Williams, Zach; Xing, Zichuan

2017-10-01

Understanding and controlling impurity transport in a toroidal magnetized plasma is one of the critical issues that need to be addressed in order to achieve controlled fusion. Gyrokinetic modeling shows turbulence can drive impurity transport, but direct measurements of the turbulent flux have not been made. Particle balance is typically used to infer the presence of turbulent impurity transport. We report, for the first time in a toroidal plasma, direct measurements of turbulence-driven impurity transport. Trapped electron mode (TEM) turbulence appears in MST plasmas when MHD tearing fluctuations are suppressed. Impurity ion-Doppler spectroscopy is used to correlate impurity density and radial velocity fluctuations associated with TEM. Small Doppler shifts associated with the radial velocity fluctuations (rms 1km/s) are resolved with the use of a new linearized spectrum correlation analysis method, which improves the rejection of Poisson noise. The method employs frequency-domain correlation analysis to expose the fluctuation and transport spectrum. The C+ 2 impurity transport velocity driven by turbulence is found to be 48m/s (inward), which is sufficiently large to impact an impurity flux balance in MST improved-confinement plasmas. This work is supported by the US DOE.

Periodic and stochastic thermal modulation of protein folding kinetics.

PubMed

Platkov, Max; Gruebele, Martin

2014-07-21

Chemical reactions are usually observed either by relaxation of a bulk sample after applying a sudden external perturbation, or by intrinsic fluctuations of a few molecules. Here we show that the two ideas can be combined to measure protein folding kinetics, either by periodic thermal modulation, or by creating artificial thermal noise that greatly exceeds natural thermal fluctuations. We study the folding reaction of the enzyme phosphoglycerate kinase driven by periodic temperature waveforms. As the temperature waveform unfolds and refolds the protein, its fluorescence color changes due to FRET (Förster resonant Energy Transfer) of two donor/acceptor fluorophores labeling the protein. We adapt a simple model of periodically driven kinetics that nicely fits the data at all temperatures and driving frequencies: The phase shifts of the periodic donor and acceptor fluorescence signals as a function of driving frequency reveal reaction rates. We also drive the reaction with stochastic temperature waveforms that produce thermal fluctuations much greater than natural fluctuations in the bulk. Such artificial thermal noise allows the recovery of weak underlying signals due to protein folding kinetics. This opens up the possibility for future detection of a stochastic resonance for protein folding subject to noise with controllable amplitude.

Evaluating the utility of dynamical downscaling in agricultural impacts projections

PubMed Central

Glotter, Michael; Elliott, Joshua; McInerney, David; Best, Neil; Foster, Ian; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

2014-01-01

Interest in estimating the potential socioeconomic costs of climate change has led to the increasing use of dynamical downscaling—nested modeling in which regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with general circulation model (GCM) output—to produce fine-spatial-scale climate projections for impacts assessments. We evaluate here whether this computationally intensive approach significantly alters projections of agricultural yield, one of the greatest concerns under climate change. Our results suggest that it does not. We simulate US maize yields under current and future CO2 concentrations with the widely used Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model, driven by a variety of climate inputs including two GCMs, each in turn downscaled by two RCMs. We find that no climate model output can reproduce yields driven by observed climate unless a bias correction is first applied. Once a bias correction is applied, GCM- and RCM-driven US maize yields are essentially indistinguishable in all scenarios (<10% discrepancy, equivalent to error from observations). Although RCMs correct some GCM biases related to fine-scale geographic features, errors in yield are dominated by broad-scale (100s of kilometers) GCM systematic errors that RCMs cannot compensate for. These results support previous suggestions that the benefits for impacts assessments of dynamically downscaling raw GCM output may not be sufficient to justify its computational demands. Progress on fidelity of yield projections may benefit more from continuing efforts to understand and minimize systematic error in underlying climate projections. PMID:24872455

Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns

Treesearch

Sarah C. Elmendorf; Gregory H.R. Henry; Robert D. Hollisterd; Anna Maria Fosaa; William A. Gould; Luise Hermanutz; Annika Hofgaard; Ingibjorg I. Jonsdottir; Janet C. Jorgenson; Esther Levesque; Borgbor Magnusson; Ulf Molau; Isla H. Myers-Smith; Steven F. Oberbauer; Christian Rixen; Craig E. Tweedie; Marilyn Walkers

2015-01-01

Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along...

Drivers and uncertainties of forecasted range shifts for warm-water fishes under climate and land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bouska, Kristen; Whitledge, Gregory W.; Lant, Christopher; Schoof, Justin

2018-01-01

Land cover is an important determinant of aquatic habitat and is projected to shift with climate changes, yet climate-driven land cover changes are rarely factored into climate assessments. To quantify impacts and uncertainty of coupled climate and land cover change on warm-water fish species’ distributions, we used an ensemble model approach to project distributions of 14 species. For each species, current range projections were compared to 27 scenario-based projections and aggregated to visualize uncertainty. Multiple regression and model selection techniques were used to identify drivers of range change. Novel, or no-analogue, climates were assessed to evaluate transferability of models. Changes in total probability of occurrence ranged widely across species, from a 63% increase to a 65% decrease. Distributional gains and losses were largely driven by temperature and flow variables and underscore the importance of habitat heterogeneity and connectivity to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. Finally, novel climate conditions were driven by mean annual maximum temperature, which stresses the importance of understanding the role of temperature on fish physiology and the role of temperature-mitigating management practices.

Parasite biodiversity faces extinction and redistribution in a changing climate.

PubMed

Carlson, Colin J; Burgio, Kevin R; Dougherty, Eric R; Phillips, Anna J; Bueno, Veronica M; Clements, Christopher F; Castaldo, Giovanni; Dallas, Tad A; Cizauskas, Carrie A; Cumming, Graeme S; Doña, Jorge; Harris, Nyeema C; Jovani, Roger; Mironov, Sergey; Muellerklein, Oliver C; Proctor, Heather C; Getz, Wayne M

2017-09-01

Climate change is a well-documented driver of both wildlife extinction and disease emergence, but the negative impacts of climate change on parasite diversity are undocumented. We compiled the most comprehensive spatially explicit data set available for parasites, projected range shifts in a changing climate, and estimated extinction rates for eight major parasite clades. On the basis of 53,133 occurrences capturing the geographic ranges of 457 parasite species, conservative model projections suggest that 5 to 10% of these species are committed to extinction by 2070 from climate-driven habitat loss alone. We find no evidence that parasites with zoonotic potential have a significantly higher potential to gain range in a changing climate, but we do find that ectoparasites (especially ticks) fare disproportionately worse than endoparasites. Accounting for host-driven coextinctions, models predict that up to 30% of parasitic worms are committed to extinction, driven by a combination of direct and indirect pressures. Despite high local extinction rates, parasite richness could still increase by an order of magnitude in some places, because species successfully tracking climate change invade temperate ecosystems and replace native species with unpredictable ecological consequences.

On fragmentation of turbulent self-gravitating discs in the long cooling time regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, Ken; Nayakshin, Sergei

2018-03-01

It has recently been suggested that in the presence of driven turbulence discs may be much less stable against gravitational collapse than their non-turbulent analogues, due to stochastic density fluctuations in turbulent flows. This mode of fragmentation would be especially important for gas giant planet formation. Here, we argue, however, that stochastic density fluctuations due to turbulence do not enhance gravitational instability and disc fragmentation in the long cooling time limit appropriate for planet forming discs. These fluctuations evolve adiabatically and dissipate away by decompression faster than they could collapse. We investigate these issues numerically in two dimensions via shearing box simulations with driven turbulence and also in three dimensions with a model of instantaneously applied turbulent velocity kicks. In the former setting turbulent driving leads to additional disc heating that tends to make discs more, rather than less, stable to gravitational instability. In the latter setting, the formation of high-density regions due to convergent velocity kicks is found to be quickly followed by decompression, as expected. We therefore conclude that driven turbulence does not promote disc fragmentation in protoplanetary discs and instead tends to make the discs more stable. We also argue that sustaining supersonic turbulence is very difficult in discs that cool slowly.

The microphysics and macrophysics of cosmic rays

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zweibel, Ellen G.

2013-05-15

This review paper commemorates a century of cosmic ray research, with emphasis on the plasma physics aspects. Cosmic rays comprise only ∼10{sup −9} of interstellar particles by number, but collectively their energy density is about equal to that of the thermal particles. They are confined by the Galactic magnetic field and well scattered by small scale magnetic fluctuations, which couple them to the local rest frame of the thermal fluid. Scattering isotropizes the cosmic rays and allows them to exchange momentum and energy with the background medium. I will review a theory for how the fluctuations which scatter the cosmicmore » rays can be generated by the cosmic rays themselves through a microinstability excited by their streaming. A quasilinear treatment of the cosmic ray–wave interaction then leads to a fluid model of cosmic rays with both advection and diffusion by the background medium and momentum and energy deposition by the cosmic rays. This fluid model admits cosmic ray modified shocks, large scale cosmic ray driven instabilities, cosmic ray heating of the thermal gas, and cosmic ray driven galactic winds. If the fluctuations were extrinsic turbulence driven by some other mechanism, the cosmic ray background coupling would be entirely different. Which picture holds depends largely on the nature of turbulence in the background medium.« less

Rapid coupling between ice volume and polar temperature over the past 150,000 years.

PubMed

Grant, K M; Rohling, E J; Bar-Matthews, M; Ayalon, A; Medina-Elizalde, M; Ramsey, C Bronk; Satow, C; Roberts, A P

2012-11-29

Current global warming necessitates a detailed understanding of the relationships between climate and global ice volume. Highly resolved and continuous sea-level records are essential for quantifying ice-volume changes. However, an unbiased study of the timing of past ice-volume changes, relative to polar climate change, has so far been impossible because available sea-level records either were dated by using orbital tuning or ice-core timescales, or were discontinuous in time. Here we present an independent dating of a continuous, high-resolution sea-level record in millennial-scale detail throughout the past 150,000 years. We find that the timing of ice-volume fluctuations agrees well with that of variations in Antarctic climate and especially Greenland climate. Amplitudes of ice-volume fluctuations more closely match Antarctic (rather than Greenland) climate changes. Polar climate and ice-volume changes, and their rates of change, are found to covary within centennial response times. Finally, rates of sea-level rise reached at least 1.2 m per century during all major episodes of ice-volume reduction.

Edge resonant fluctuations and particle transport in a reversed-field pinch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Möller, A.

1998-12-01

Electrostatic fluctuations are measured in the Extrap T2 reversed-field pinch [J. R. Drake et al., in Plasma Physics and Controlled Nuclear Fusion Research 1996 (International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, 1997), Vol. 2, pp. 193-199] using a Langmuir probe array. The electrostatic fluctuation, driven particle transport ΓnΦ is derived and found to constitute a large fraction of the total particle transport. The spectral density of all measured quantities exhibits a peak in the frequency range 100-250 kHz, which originates from fluctuations that are resonant close to the edge [n=-(40-80)]. This peak contains only about 10-20% of the total fluctuation power, but is shown to dominate ΓnΦ. The main reason for this is the high toroidal mode number as compared with internally resonant magnetohydrodynamic fluctuations. The edge resonant fluctuations also features a higher coherence (γ=0.5) and close to 90° phase shift between density and potential fluctuations.

Southern westerly winds: a pacemaker of Holocene glacial fluctuations in Patagonia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sagredo, E. A.; Reynhout, S.; Kaplan, M. R.; Patricio, M. I.; Aravena, J. C.; Martini, M. A.; Schaefer, J. M.

2017-12-01

A well-resolved glacial chronology is crucial to compare sequences of glacial/climate events within and between regions, and thus, to unravel mechanisms underlying past climate changes. Important efforts have been made towards understanding the Holocene climate evolution of the Southern Andes; however, the timing, patterns and causes of glacial fluctuations during this period still remain elusive. Recent advances in terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating, together with the establishment of a Patagonian 10Be production rate, have opened new possibilities for establishing high-resolution glacial chronologies at centennial/decadal scale. Here we present a 10Be surface exposure chronology of fluctuations of a small, climate-sensitive mountain glacier at Mt. Fitz Roy area (49.3°S), spanning from the last glacial termination to the present. Thirty new 10Be ages show glacial advances and moraine building events at 17.1±0.9 ka, 13.5±0.5 ka, 10.2±0.7 ka or 9.9±0.5 ka, 6.9±0.2 ka, 6.1±0.3 ka, 4.5±0.2 ka and 0.5±0.1 ka. Similar to the pattern observed in New Zealand, this sequence features progressively less extensive glacial advances during the late-glacial and early Holocene, followed by advances of roughly similar extent during the mid- to late-Holocene. We suggest that while the magnitude of Holocene glacial fluctuations in Patagonia is modulated by SH summer insolation ("modulator"), the specific timing of these glacial events is influenced by centennial-scale shifts of the Southern Westerly Winds ("pacemaker").

Ecosystem resilience to abrupt late Quaternary change in continental southern Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, Poppy; Mackay, Anson; Bezrukova, Elena; Shchetnikov, Alexander

2017-04-01

Quaternary climate variability is dominated by long term orbital forcing along with abrupt sub-Milankovitch events on the scales of millennia to centuries, driven by internal feedback mechanisms, volcanic forcing and fluctuating solar activity. Although these are well documented in the North Atlantic region, their expression is poorly understood in Siberia, particularly in relation to abrupt climatic events. Siberia has the world's highest level of continentality offering an opportunity to study changes remote from oceanic influences and improving understanding of interactions between the Siberian High and other atmospheric systems including the Aleutian Low, Arctic oscillation and Icelandic Low1 and ENSO2. Understanding of palaeoenvironmental change in Siberia is essential due to the region's high sensitivity to climatic change, with warming rates considerably higher than the global average over the past 50 years3, triggering significant environmental changes, including permafrost degradation, shifts in the forest-steppe biome, increases in forest fires and warming of seasonally ice-covered lakes. Additionally, the region provides essential palaeoenvironmental context for early hominins, for example at globally important sites such as Denisova cave4, and megafauna extinctions5. This presentation outlines ongoing work at Lake Baunt, SE Siberia including: key quaternary climate forcings, the site and its regional context, the key methods and preliminary results. These include a dated record back to ˜30ka BP (based on multiple 14C dates and Bayesian age modelling), multiproxy indicators of palaeoproductivity (e.g. biogenic silica and diatom analyses) and lake mixing regimes (inferred from diatom analyses). Together these highlight several key Quaternary fluctuations potentially correlated to events recorded in Greenland Ice Cores (GS2, GS2.1, GI1, GS1), and these are considered against key Quaternary records including those from nearby Lake Baikal and Hulu Cave in east China. Our analyses suggest that teleconnections between the Siberian High and the East Asian monsoon are also significant for this study, with Lake Baunt showing a relationship between productivity and variability in strength of the Siberian High. References: 1. Tubi, A. & Dayan, U. (2013). Int. J. Climatol. 33, 1357-1366. 2. Park, T.-W. et al. (2014). Clim. Dyn. 45, 1207-1217. 3. Tingley, M. P. & Huybers, P. (2013). Nature 496, 201-5. 4. Krause, J. et al.. (2010). Nature 464, 894-7. 5. Stuart, A. J. et al. (2004). Nature 431, 684-9.

Understanding Evolutionary Impacts of Seasonality: An Introduction to the Symposium.

PubMed

Williams, Caroline M; Ragland, Gregory J; Betini, Gustavo; Buckley, Lauren B; Cheviron, Zachary A; Donohue, Kathleen; Hereford, Joe; Humphries, Murray M; Lisovski, Simeon; Marshall, Katie E; Schmidt, Paul S; Sheldon, Kimberly S; Varpe, Øystein; Visser, Marcel E

2017-11-01

Seasonality is a critically important aspect of environmental variability, and strongly shapes all aspects of life for organisms living in highly seasonal environments. Seasonality has played a key role in generating biodiversity, and has driven the evolution of extreme physiological adaptations and behaviors such as migration and hibernation. Fluctuating selection pressures on survival and fecundity between summer and winter provide a complex selective landscape, which can be met by a combination of three outcomes of adaptive evolution: genetic polymorphism, phenotypic plasticity, and bet-hedging. Here, we have identified four important research questions with the goal of advancing our understanding of evolutionary impacts of seasonality. First, we ask how characteristics of environments and species will determine which adaptive response occurs. Relevant characteristics include costs and limits of plasticity, predictability, and reliability of cues, and grain of environmental variation relative to generation time. A second important question is how phenological shifts will amplify or ameliorate selection on physiological hardiness. Shifts in phenology can preserve the thermal niche despite shifts in climate, but may fail to completely conserve the niche or may even expose life stages to conditions that cause mortality. Considering distinct environmental sensitivities of life history stages will be key to refining models that forecast susceptibility to climate change. Third, we must identify critical physiological phenotypes that underlie seasonal adaptation and work toward understanding the genetic architectures of these responses. These architectures are key for predicting evolutionary responses. Pleiotropic genes that regulate multiple responses to changing seasons may facilitate coordination among functionally related traits, or conversely may constrain the expression of optimal phenotypes. Finally, we must advance our understanding of how changes in seasonal fluctuations are impacting ecological interaction networks. We should move beyond simple dyadic interactions, such as predator prey dynamics, and understand how these interactions scale up to affect ecological interaction networks. As global climate change alters many aspects of seasonal variability, including extreme events and changes in mean conditions, organisms must respond appropriately or go extinct. The outcome of adaptation to seasonality will determine responses to climate change. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Carbon dynamics of forest in Washington, USA: 21st century projections based on climate-driven changes in fire regimes

Treesearch

Crystal L. Raymond; Donald McKenzie

2012-01-01

During the 21st century, climate-driven changes in fire regimes will be a key agent of change in forests of the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Understanding the response of forest carbon (C) dynamics to increases in fire will help quantify limits on the contribution of forest C storage to climate change mitigation and prioritize forest types for...

Moisture-driven xylogenesis in Pinus ponderosa from a Mojave Desert mountain reveals high phenological plasticity.

PubMed

Ziaco, Emanuele; Truettner, Charles; Biondi, Franco; Bullock, Sarah

2018-04-01

Future seasonal dynamics of wood formation in hyperarid environments are still unclear. Although temperature-driven extension of the growing season and increased forest productivity are expected for boreal and temperate biomes under global warming, a similar trend remains questionable in water-limited regions. We monitored cambial activity in a montane stand of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) from the Mojave Desert for 2 consecutive years (2015-2016) showing opposite-sign anomalies between warm- and cold-season precipitation. After the wet winter/spring of 2016, xylogenesis started 2 months earlier compared to 2015, characterized by abundant monsoonal (July-August) rainfall and hyperarid spring. Tree size did not influence the onset and ending of wood formation, highlighting a predominant climatic control over xylem phenological processes. Moisture conditions in the previous month, in particular soil water content and dew point, were the main drivers of cambial phenology. Latewood formation started roughly at the same time in both years; however, monsoonal precipitation triggered the formation of more false rings and density fluctuations in 2015. Because of uncertainties in future precipitation patterns simulated by global change models for the Southwestern United States, the dependency of P. ponderosa on seasonal moisture implies a greater conservation challenge than for species that respond mostly to temperature conditions. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Diffusion-assisted selective dynamical recoupling: A new approach to measure background gradients in magnetic resonance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Álvarez, Gonzalo A.; Shemesh, Noam; Frydman, Lucio

2014-02-01

Dynamical decoupling, a generalization of the original NMR spin-echo sequence, is becoming increasingly relevant as a tool for reducing decoherence in quantum systems. Such sequences apply non-equidistant refocusing pulses for optimizing the coupling between systems, and environmental fluctuations characterized by a given noise spectrum. One such sequence, dubbed Selective Dynamical Recoupling (SDR) [P. E. S. Smith, G. Bensky, G. A. Álvarez, G. Kurizki, and L. Frydman, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 109, 5958 (2012)], allows one to coherently reintroduce diffusion decoherence effects driven by fluctuations arising from restricted molecular diffusion [G. A. Álvarez, N. Shemesh, and L. Frydman, Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 080404 (2013)]. The fully-refocused, constant-time, and constant-number-of-pulses nature of SDR also allows one to filter out "intrinsic" T1 and T2 weightings, as well as pulse errors acting as additional sources of decoherence. This article explores such features when the fluctuations are now driven by unrestricted molecular diffusion. In particular, we show that diffusion-driven SDR can be exploited to investigate the decoherence arising from the frequency fluctuations imposed by internal gradients. As a result, SDR presents a unique way of probing and characterizing these internal magnetic fields, given an a priori known free diffusion coefficient. This has important implications in studies of structured systems, including porous media and live tissues, where the internal gradients may serve as fingerprints for the system's composition or structure. The principles of this method, along with full analytical solutions for the unrestricted diffusion-driven modulation of the SDR signal, are presented. The potential of this approach is demonstrated with the generation of a novel source of MRI contrast, based on the background gradients active in an ex vivo mouse brain. Additional features and limitations of this new method are discussed.

Fluctuation-driven anisotropy in effective pair interactions between nanoparticles: Thiolated gold nanoparticles in ethane

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jabes, B. Shadrack; Yadav, Hari O. S.; Chakravarty, Charusita, E-mail: charus@chemistry.iitd.ac.in

2014-10-21

Fluctuations within the ligand shell of a nanoparticle give rise to a significant degree of anisotropy in effective pair interactions for low grafting densities [B. Bozorgui, D. Meng, S. K. Kumar, C. Chakravarty, and A. Cacciuto, Nano Lett. 13, 2732 (2013)]. Here, we examine the corresponding fluctuation-driven anisotropy for gold nanocrystals densely passivated with short ligands. In particular, we consider gold nanocrystals capped by alkylthiols, both in vacuum and in ethane solvent at high density. As in the preceding study, we show that the anisotropy in the nanoparticle pair potential can be quantified by an angle-dependent correction term to themore » isotropic potential of mean force (PMF). We find that the anisotropy of the ligand shells is distance dependent, and strongly influenced by ligand interdigitation effects as well as expulsion of ligand chains from the interparticle region at short distances. Such fluctuation-driven anisotropy can be significant for alkylthiol-coated gold nanoparticles, specially for longer chain lengths, under good solvent conditions. The consequences of such anisotropy for self-assembly, specially as a function of grafting density, solvent quality and at interfaces, should provide some interesting insights in future work. Our results clearly show that an isotropic two-body PMF cannot adequately describe the thermodynamics and assembly behavior of nanoparticles in this dense grafting regime and inclusion of anisotropic effects, as well as possibly many-body interactions, is necessary. Extensions of this approach to other passivated nanoparticle systems and implications for self-assembly are considered.« less

Habitat Selection by African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in Response to Landscape-Level Fluctuations in Water Availability on Two Temporal Scales

PubMed Central

Bennitt, Emily; Bonyongo, Mpaphi Casper; Harris, Stephen

2014-01-01

Seasonal fluctuations in water availability cause predictable changes in the profitability of habitats in tropical ecosystems, and animals evolve adaptive behavioural and spatial responses to these fluctuations. However, stochastic changes in the distribution and abundance of surface water between years can alter resource availability at a landscape scale, causing shifts in animal behaviour. In the Okavango Delta, Botswana, a flood-pulsed ecosystem, the volume of water entering the system doubled between 2008 and 2009, creating a sudden change in the landscape. We used African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) to test the hypotheses that seasonal habitat selection would be related to water availability, that increased floodwater levels would decrease forage abundance and affect habitat selection, and that this would decrease buffalo resting time, reduce reproductive success and decrease body condition. Buffalo selected contrasting seasonal habitats, using habitats far from permanent water during the rainy season and seasonally-flooded habitats close to permanent water during the early and late flood seasons. The 2009 water increase reduced forage availability in seasonally-flooded habitats, removing a resource buffer used by the buffalo during the late flood season, when resources were most limited. In response, buffalo used drier habitats in 2009, although there was no significant change in the time spent moving or resting, or daily distance moved. While their reproductive success decreased in 2009, body condition increased. A protracted period of high water levels could prove detrimental to herbivores, especially to smaller-bodied species that require high quality forage. Stochastic annual fluctuations in water levels, predicted to increase as a result of anthropogenically-induced climate change, are likely to have substantial impacts on the functioning of water-driven tropical ecosystems, affecting environmental conditions within protected areas. Buffer zones around critical seasonal resources are essential to allow animals to engage in compensatory behavioural and spatial mechanisms in response to changing environmental conditions. PMID:24983377

Habitat selection by African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in response to landscape-level fluctuations in water availability on two temporal scales.

PubMed

Bennitt, Emily; Bonyongo, Mpaphi Casper; Harris, Stephen

2014-01-01

Seasonal fluctuations in water availability cause predictable changes in the profitability of habitats in tropical ecosystems, and animals evolve adaptive behavioural and spatial responses to these fluctuations. However, stochastic changes in the distribution and abundance of surface water between years can alter resource availability at a landscape scale, causing shifts in animal behaviour. In the Okavango Delta, Botswana, a flood-pulsed ecosystem, the volume of water entering the system doubled between 2008 and 2009, creating a sudden change in the landscape. We used African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) to test the hypotheses that seasonal habitat selection would be related to water availability, that increased floodwater levels would decrease forage abundance and affect habitat selection, and that this would decrease buffalo resting time, reduce reproductive success and decrease body condition. Buffalo selected contrasting seasonal habitats, using habitats far from permanent water during the rainy season and seasonally-flooded habitats close to permanent water during the early and late flood seasons. The 2009 water increase reduced forage availability in seasonally-flooded habitats, removing a resource buffer used by the buffalo during the late flood season, when resources were most limited. In response, buffalo used drier habitats in 2009, although there was no significant change in the time spent moving or resting, or daily distance moved. While their reproductive success decreased in 2009, body condition increased. A protracted period of high water levels could prove detrimental to herbivores, especially to smaller-bodied species that require high quality forage. Stochastic annual fluctuations in water levels, predicted to increase as a result of anthropogenically-induced climate change, are likely to have substantial impacts on the functioning of water-driven tropical ecosystems, affecting environmental conditions within protected areas. Buffer zones around critical seasonal resources are essential to allow animals to engage in compensatory behavioural and spatial mechanisms in response to changing environmental conditions.

Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem.

PubMed

Wernberg, Thomas; Bennett, Scott; Babcock, Russell C; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Cure, Katherine; Depczynski, Martial; Dufois, Francois; Fromont, Jane; Fulton, Christopher J; Hovey, Renae K; Harvey, Euan S; Holmes, Thomas H; Kendrick, Gary A; Radford, Ben; Santana-Garcon, Julia; Saunders, Benjamin J; Smale, Dan A; Thomsen, Mads S; Tuckett, Chenae A; Tuya, Fernando; Vanderklift, Mathew A; Wilson, Shaun

2016-07-08

Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Complex spatial dynamics maintain northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) genetic diversity in a temporally varying landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mushet, David M.; Euliss, Ned H.; Chen, Yongjiu; Stockwell, Craig A.

2013-01-01

In contrast to most local amphibian populations, northeastern populations of the Northern Leopard Frog (Lithobates pipiens) have displayed uncharacteristically high levels of genetic diversity that have been attributed to large, stable populations. However, this widely distributed species also occurs in areas known for great climatic fluctuations that should be reflected in corresponding fluctuations in population sizes and reduced genetic diversity. To test our hypothesis that Northern Leopard Frog genetic diversity would be reduced in areas subjected to significant climate variability, we examined the genetic diversity of L. pipiens collected from 12 sites within the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota. Despite the region's fluctuating climate that includes periods of recurring drought and deluge, we found unexpectedly high levels of genetic diversity approaching that of northeastern populations. Further, genetic structure at a landscape scale was strikingly homogeneous; genetic differentiation estimates (Dest) averaged 0.10 (SD = 0.036) across the six microsatellite loci we studied, and two Bayesian assignment tests (STRUCTURE and BAPS) failed to reveal the development of significant population structure across the 68 km breadth of our study area. These results suggest that L. pipiens in the Prairie Pothole Region consists of a large, panmictic population capable of maintaining high genetic diversity in the face of marked climate variability.

Climate effects on historic bluefin tuna captures in the Gibraltar Strait and Western Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganzedo, Unai; Polanco-Martínez, Josué M.; Caballero-Alfonso, Ángela M.; Faria, Sérgio H.; Li, Jianke; Castro-Hernández, José J.

2016-06-01

Historical capture records of bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus; BFT hereafter) from the Gibraltar Strait and Western Mediterranean show pronounced short- and long-term fluctuations. Some of these fluctuations are believed to be associated with biological and ecological process, as well as distinct climate factors. For the period of study (1700-1936) of this work, we found a long-term increasing trend in the BFT captures and in the climate variables. After applying a statistical time series analysis of relevant climate variables and long-term tuna capture records, it is highlighted the role played by sea-surface temperature (SST) on bluefin population variations. The most relevant result of this study is the strong correlation found between the total solar irradiance (TSI) - an external component of the climate system - and bluefin captures. The solar irradiance could have affected storminess during the period under study, mainly during the time interval 1700-1810. We suggest physico-biological mechanisms that explain the BFT catch fluctuations in two consecutive time intervals. In the first period, from 1700 to 1810, this mechanism could be high storm and wind activity, which would have made the BFT fisheries activities more difficult by reducing their efficacy. In contrast, during the interval from 1810 to 1907, the effects of wind and storms could be on spawning behaviour and larval ecology, and hence on year class strength, rather than on fish or fisherman's behaviour. These findings open up a range of new lines of enquiry that are relevant for both, fisheries and climate change research.

Estimation of Atlantic-Mediterranean netflow variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerreiro, Catarina; Peliz, Alvaro; Miranda, Pedro

2016-04-01

The exchanges at the Strait of Gibraltar are extremely difficult to measure due to the strong temporal and across-strait variabilities; yet the Atlantic inflow into the Mediterranean is extremely important both for climate and to ecosystems. Most of the published numerical modeling studies do not resolve the Strait of Gibraltar realistically. Models that represent the strait at high resolution focus primarily in high frequency dynamics, whereas long-term dynamics are studied in low resolution model studies, and for that reason the Strait dynamics are poorly resolved. Estimating the variability of the exchanges requires long term and high-resolutions studies, thus an improved simulation with explicit and realistic representation of the Strait is necessary. On seasonal to inter-annual timescales the flow is essentially driven by the net evaporation contribution and consequently realistic fields of precipitation and evaporation are necessary for model setup. A comparison between observations, reanalysis and combined products shows ERA-Interim Reanalysis has the most suitable product for Mediterranean Sea. Its time and space variability are in close agreement with NOC 1.1 for the common period (1980 - 1993) and also with evaporation from OAFLUX (1989 - 2014). Subinertial fluctuations, periods from days to a few months, are the second most energetic, after tides, and are the response to atmospheric pressure fluctuations and local winds. Atmospheric pressure fluctuations in the Mediterranean cause sea level oscillations that induce a barotropic flow through the Strait. Candela's analytical model has been used to quantify this response in later studies, though comparison with observations points to an underestimation of the flow at strait. An improved representation of this term contribution to the Atlantic - Mediterranean exchange must be achieved on longer time-scales. We propose a new simulation for the last 36 years (1979 - 2014) for the Mediterranean - Atlantic domain with explicit representation of the Strait. The simulations are performed using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and forced with the different contributions of the freshwater budget, sea level pressure fluctuations and winds from ERA-Interim Reanalysis. The model of sea level pressure induced barotropic fluctuations simulates the barotropic variability at the Strait of Gibraltar for the last decades.

Glacial greenhouse-gas fluctuations controlled by ocean circulation changes.

PubMed

Schmittner, Andreas; Galbraith, Eric D

2008-11-20

Earth's climate and the concentrations of the atmospheric greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) varied strongly on millennial timescales during past glacial periods. Large and rapid warming events in Greenland and the North Atlantic were followed by more gradual cooling, and are highly correlated with fluctuations of N(2)O as recorded in ice cores. Antarctic temperature variations, on the other hand, were smaller and more gradual, showed warming during the Greenland cold phase and cooling while the North Atlantic was warm, and were highly correlated with fluctuations in CO(2). Abrupt changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) have often been invoked to explain the physical characteristics of these Dansgaard-Oeschger climate oscillations, but the mechanisms for the greenhouse-gas variations and their linkage to the AMOC have remained unclear. Here we present simulations with a coupled model of glacial climate and biogeochemical cycles, forced only with changes in the AMOC. The model simultaneously reproduces characteristic features of the Dansgaard-Oeschger temperature, as well as CO(2) and N(2)O fluctuations. Despite significant changes in the land carbon inventory, CO(2) variations on millennial timescales are dominated by slow changes in the deep ocean inventory of biologically sequestered carbon and are correlated with Antarctic temperature and Southern Ocean stratification. In contrast, N(2)O co-varies more rapidly with Greenland temperatures owing to fast adjustments of the thermocline oxygen budget. These results suggest that ocean circulation changes were the primary mechanism that drove glacial CO(2) and N(2)O fluctuations on millennial timescales.

a Marine Record of Holocene Climate Events in Tropical South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haug, G. H.; Günther, D.; Hughen, K. A.; Peterson, L. C.; Röhl, U.

2002-12-01

Metal concentration data (Ti, Fe) from the anoxic Cariaco Basin off the Venezuelan coast record with subdecadal to seasonal resolution variations in the hydrological cycle over tropical South America during the last 14 ka. Following a dry Younger Dryas, a period of increased precipitation and riverine discharge occurred during the Holocene `thermal maximum'. Since ~5.4 ka, a trend towards drier conditions is evident from the data, with high amplitude fluctuations and precipitation minima during the time interval 3.8 to 2.8 ka and during the `Little Ice Age'. O pronouced increase in precipitation coincides with the phase sometimes referred to as the `Medieval Warm Period'. These regional changes in precipitation are best explained by shifts in the mean latitude of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), potentially driven by Pacific-based climate variability. The variations recorded in Cariaco Basin sediments coincide with events in societal evolution that have been suggested previously to be motivated by environmental change. Regionally, the Cariaco record supports the notion that the collapse of this civilization between 800 and 1000 AD coincided with an extended period of drier conditions, implying that the rapid growth of Mayan culture from 600 to 800 AD may have resulted in a population operating at the fringes of the environment's carrying capacity. The Cariaco Basin record also hints at tropical climate events similar in timing to high latitude changes in the North Atlantic often invoked as pivotal to societal developments in Europe.

Ensuring Disaster Risk Reduction via Sustainable Wetland Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, S. W.; Lindborg, R.; Nyström, S.; Silengo, M.; Tumbo, M.; Koutsouris, A. J.

2015-12-01

Wetland ecosystems around the world are increasingly being targeted as land use development 'hotspots' under growing concerns of climate variability and food security. Anthropogenic encroachment on natural wetland ecosystems can have direct consequences locally through loss of biodiversity and regionally through increased disaster risks associated with, for example, flooding. We consider two regionally-relevant wetland ecosystems in eastern Africa, namely Zambia's Lukanga Swamps and Tanzania's Kilombero Valley, experiencing varying trajectories of development under climatic variations. These regions have been targeted for inclusive, multi-stakeholder initiatives that aim at developing agricultural potential through combinations of large and small scale irrigation schemes. Through our data-driven analysis we highlight the potential for shifts in hydrologic regime of each wetland ecosystem which can have significant regional impacts on disaster risks. In the case of the Lukanga Swamps, wetlands maintain water table fluctuations that help mitigate water cycling with implications for the downstream flooding impact of annual rains. With regards to Kilombero Valley, understanding seasonal changes in hydrological processes and storages provides the cornerstone for managing future water resource impacts/feedbacks under different scenarios of land management. This work emphasizes the need to tailor strategies towards sustainable uses of wetlands that reduce disaster risks regionally while contributing to improved community health and wellbeing. It remains an open (and fundamental) question of how to best define management recommendations and activities that not only achieve climate resiliency but also are acceptable for stakeholders without compromising the balance between ecosystem service supply and biodiversity conservation.

Ion heating and short wavelength fluctuations in a helicon plasma source

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scime, E. E.; Carr, J. Jr.; Galante, M.

2013-03-15

For typical helicon source parameters, the driving antenna can couple to two plasma modes; the weakly damped 'helicon' wave, and the strongly damped, short wavelength, slow wave. Here, we present direct measurements, obtained with two different techniques, of few hundred kHz, short wavelength fluctuations that are parametrically driven by the primary antenna and localized to the edge of the plasma. The short wavelength fluctuations appear for plasma source parameters such that the driving frequency is approximately equal to the lower hybrid frequency. Measurements of the steady-state ion temperature and fluctuation amplitude radial profiles suggest that the anomalously high ion temperaturesmore » observed at the edge of helicon sources result from damping of the short wavelength fluctuations. Additional measurements of the time evolution of the ion temperature and fluctuation profiles in pulsed helicon source plasmas support the same conclusion.« less

Dynamic relaxation of a levitated nanoparticle from a non-equilibrium steady state.

PubMed

Gieseler, Jan; Quidant, Romain; Dellago, Christoph; Novotny, Lukas

2014-05-01

Fluctuation theorems are a generalization of thermodynamics on small scales and provide the tools to characterize the fluctuations of thermodynamic quantities in non-equilibrium nanoscale systems. They are particularly important for understanding irreversibility and the second law in fundamental chemical and biological processes that are actively driven, thus operating far from thermal equilibrium. Here, we apply the framework of fluctuation theorems to investigate the important case of a system relaxing from a non-equilibrium state towards equilibrium. Using a vacuum-trapped nanoparticle, we demonstrate experimentally the validity of a fluctuation theorem for the relative entropy change occurring during relaxation from a non-equilibrium steady state. The platform established here allows non-equilibrium fluctuation theorems to be studied experimentally for arbitrary steady states and can be extended to investigate quantum fluctuation theorems as well as systems that do not obey detailed balance.

Climate change: evidence of human causes and arguments for emissions reduction.

PubMed

Baum, Seth D; Haqq-Misra, Jacob D; Karmosky, Chris

2012-06-01

In a recent editorial, Raymond Spier expresses skepticism over claims that climate change is driven by human actions and that humanity should act to avoid climate change. This paper responds to this skepticism as part of a broader review of the science and ethics of climate change. While much remains uncertain about the climate, research indicates that observed temperature increases are human-driven. Although opinions vary regarding what should be done, prominent arguments against action are based on dubious factual and ethical positions. Thus, the skepticisms in the recent editorial are unwarranted. This does not diminish the general merits of skeptical intellectual inquiry.

Neandertal versus Modern Human Dietary Responses to Climatic Fluctuations

PubMed Central

El Zaatari, Sireen; Grine, Frederick E.; Ungar, Peter S.; Hublin, Jean-Jacques

2016-01-01

The Neandertal lineage developed successfully throughout western Eurasia and effectively survived the harsh and severely changing environments of the alternating glacial/interglacial cycles from the middle of the Pleistocene until Marine Isotope Stage 3. Yet, towards the end of this stage, at the time of deteriorating climatic conditions that eventually led to the Last Glacial Maximum, and soon after modern humans entered western Eurasia, the Neandertals disappeared. Western Eurasia was by then exclusively occupied by modern humans. We use occlusal molar microwear texture analysis to examine aspects of diet in western Eurasian Paleolithic hominins in relation to fluctuations in food supplies that resulted from the oscillating climatic conditions of the Pleistocene. There is demonstrable evidence for differences in behavior that distinguish Upper Paleolithic humans from members of the Neandertal lineage. Specifically, whereas the Neandertals altered their diets in response to changing paleoecological conditions, the diets of Upper Paleolithic humans seem to have been less affected by slight changes in vegetation/climatic conditions but were linked to changes in their technological complexes. The results of this study also indicate differences in resource exploitation strategies between these two hominin groups. We argue that these differences in subsistence strategies, if they had already been established at the time of the first contact between these two hominin taxa, may have given modern humans an advantage over the Neandertals, and may have contributed to the persistence of our species despite habitat-related changes in food availabilities associated with climate fluctuations. PMID:27119336

Neandertal versus Modern Human Dietary Responses to Climatic Fluctuations.

PubMed

El Zaatari, Sireen; Grine, Frederick E; Ungar, Peter S; Hublin, Jean-Jacques

2016-01-01

The Neandertal lineage developed successfully throughout western Eurasia and effectively survived the harsh and severely changing environments of the alternating glacial/interglacial cycles from the middle of the Pleistocene until Marine Isotope Stage 3. Yet, towards the end of this stage, at the time of deteriorating climatic conditions that eventually led to the Last Glacial Maximum, and soon after modern humans entered western Eurasia, the Neandertals disappeared. Western Eurasia was by then exclusively occupied by modern humans. We use occlusal molar microwear texture analysis to examine aspects of diet in western Eurasian Paleolithic hominins in relation to fluctuations in food supplies that resulted from the oscillating climatic conditions of the Pleistocene. There is demonstrable evidence for differences in behavior that distinguish Upper Paleolithic humans from members of the Neandertal lineage. Specifically, whereas the Neandertals altered their diets in response to changing paleoecological conditions, the diets of Upper Paleolithic humans seem to have been less affected by slight changes in vegetation/climatic conditions but were linked to changes in their technological complexes. The results of this study also indicate differences in resource exploitation strategies between these two hominin groups. We argue that these differences in subsistence strategies, if they had already been established at the time of the first contact between these two hominin taxa, may have given modern humans an advantage over the Neandertals, and may have contributed to the persistence of our species despite habitat-related changes in food availabilities associated with climate fluctuations.

Fluctuations uncover a distinct class of traveling waves

PubMed Central

Korolev, Kirill S.

2018-01-01

Epidemics, flame propagation, and cardiac rhythms are classic examples of reaction–diffusion waves that describe a switch from one alternative state to another. Only two types of waves are known: pulled, driven by the leading edge, and pushed, driven by the bulk of the wave. Here, we report a distinct class of semipushed waves for which both the bulk and the leading edge contribute to the dynamics. These hybrid waves have the kinetics of pushed waves, but exhibit giant fluctuations similar to pulled waves. The transitions between pulled, semipushed, and fully pushed waves occur at universal ratios of the wave velocity to the Fisher velocity. We derive these results in the context of a species invading a new habitat by examining front diffusion, rate of diversity loss, and fluctuation-induced corrections to the expansion velocity. All three quantities decrease as a power law of the population density with the same exponent. We analytically calculate this exponent, taking into account the fluctuations in the shape of the wave front. For fully pushed waves, the exponent is −1, consistent with the central limit theorem. In semipushed waves, however, the fluctuations average out much more slowly, and the exponent approaches 0 toward the transition to pulled waves. As a result, a rapid loss of genetic diversity and large fluctuations in the position of the front occur, even for populations with cooperative growth and other forms of an Allee effect. The evolutionary outcome of spatial spreading in such populations could therefore be less predictable than previously thought. PMID:29610340

Fluctuations uncover a distinct class of traveling waves.

PubMed

Birzu, Gabriel; Hallatschek, Oskar; Korolev, Kirill S

2018-04-17

Epidemics, flame propagation, and cardiac rhythms are classic examples of reaction-diffusion waves that describe a switch from one alternative state to another. Only two types of waves are known: pulled, driven by the leading edge, and pushed, driven by the bulk of the wave. Here, we report a distinct class of semipushed waves for which both the bulk and the leading edge contribute to the dynamics. These hybrid waves have the kinetics of pushed waves, but exhibit giant fluctuations similar to pulled waves. The transitions between pulled, semipushed, and fully pushed waves occur at universal ratios of the wave velocity to the Fisher velocity. We derive these results in the context of a species invading a new habitat by examining front diffusion, rate of diversity loss, and fluctuation-induced corrections to the expansion velocity. All three quantities decrease as a power law of the population density with the same exponent. We analytically calculate this exponent, taking into account the fluctuations in the shape of the wave front. For fully pushed waves, the exponent is -1, consistent with the central limit theorem. In semipushed waves, however, the fluctuations average out much more slowly, and the exponent approaches 0 toward the transition to pulled waves. As a result, a rapid loss of genetic diversity and large fluctuations in the position of the front occur, even for populations with cooperative growth and other forms of an Allee effect. The evolutionary outcome of spatial spreading in such populations could therefore be less predictable than previously thought. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Crime Seasonality: Examining the Temporal Fluctuations of Property Crime in Cities With Varying Climates.

PubMed

Linning, Shannon J; Andresen, Martin A; Brantingham, Paul J

2017-12-01

This study investigates whether crime patterns fluctuate periodically throughout the year using data containing different property crime types in two Canadian cities with differing climates. Using police report data, a series of ordinary least squares (OLS; Vancouver, British Columbia) and negative binomial (Ottawa, Ontario) regressions were employed to examine the corresponding temporal patterns of property crime in Vancouver (2003-2013) and Ottawa (2006-2008). Moreover, both aggregate and disaggregate models were run to examine whether different weather and temporal variables had a distinctive impact on particular offences. Overall, results suggest that cities that experience greater variations in weather throughout the year have more distinct increases of property offences in the summer months and that different climate variables affect certain crime types, thus advocating for disaggregate analysis in the future.

Remote Sensing and Holocene Vegetation: History of Global Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DAntoni, Hector; Schaebitz, Frank

1995-01-01

Predictions of the future evolution of the earth's atmospheric chemistry and its impact on global circulation patterns are based on Global Climate Models (GCM's) that integrate the complex interactions of the biosphere, atmosphere and the oceans. Most of the available records of climate and environment are shortterm records (from decades to a few hundred years) with convolved information of real trends and short-term fluctuations. GCM's must be tested beyond the short-term record of climate and environment to insure that predictions are based on trends and therefore are appropriate to support long term policy making. An appropriate timeframe should extend over the Holocene period (the last 10,000 years) when most contemporary climate and environmental processes began. Since its inception in 1916, pollen analysis has successfully reconstructed the paleoecology of the last 10,000 years for many sites around the world, thus providing a powerful time-link between short- and long-term processes in the biosphere. However, pollen analytic results cannot be used in physiological models driven by remotely sensed data. Further, modern ecology and climate data are necessary to calibrate pollen analytical models. These are available for extensive regions in the northern hemisphere, particularly for eastern United States and Canada, and western Europe. In other parts of the world, weather stations are scattered, records extend over a period of only few years, and there are no systematic climate records for large portions of the globe. This is the case of Patagonia in Argentina where a few weather stations are located close to the Atlantic seaports, fewer stations are in towns located near the eastern Andean foothill, and fewer still are scattered on the extensive Patagonian plateau. This problem became evident after completion of the Argentine-German Program of Palynology (PROPAL), a cooperative effort of National University of Mar del Plata (Argentina) and University Bamberg (Germany) to produce a modern pollen database for the Pampa and Patagonia regions.

When and where to move: Dynamic occupancy models explain the range dynamics of a food nomadic bird under climate and land cover change.

PubMed

Kalle, Riddhika; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Downs, Colleen T

2018-01-01

Globally, long-term research is critical to monitor the responses of tropical species to climate and land cover change at the range scale. Citizen science surveys can reveal the long-term persistence of poorly known nomadic tropical birds occupying fragmented forest patches. We applied dynamic occupancy models to 13 years (2002-2014) of citizen science-driven presence/absence data on Cape parrot (Poicephalus robustus), a food nomadic bird endemic to South Africa. We modeled its underlying range dynamics as a function of resource distribution, and change in climate and land cover through the estimation of colonization and extinction patterns. The range occupancy of Cape parrot changed little over time (ψ = 0.75-0.83) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Yet, there was considerable regional variability in occupancy and detection probability increased over the years. Colonizations increased with warmer temperature and area of orchards, thus explaining their range shifts southeastwards in recent years. Although colonizations were higher in the presence of nests and yellowwood trees (Afrocarpus and Podocarpus spp.), the extinctions in small forest patches (≤227 ha) and during low precipitation (≤41 mm) are attributed to resource constraints and unsuitable climatic conditions. Loss of indigenous forest cover and artificial lake/water bodies increased extinction probabilities of Cape parrot. The land use matrix (fruit farms, gardens, and cultivations) surrounding forest patches provides alternative food sources, thereby facilitating spatiotemporal colonization and extinction in the human-modified matrix. Our models show that Cape parrots are vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions such as drought which is predicted to increase under climate change. Therefore, management of optimum sized high-quality forest patches is essential for long-term survival of Cape parrot populations. Our novel application of dynamic occupancy models to long-term citizen science monitoring data unfolds the complex relationships between the environmental dynamics and range fluctuations of this food nomadic species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Metapopulation dynamics in a changing climate: Increasing spatial synchrony in weather conditions drives metapopulation synchrony of a butterfly inhabiting a fragmented landscape.

PubMed

Kahilainen, Aapo; van Nouhuys, Saskya; Schulz, Torsti; Saastamoinen, Marjo

2018-04-23

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are both prominent manifestations of global change, but there is little knowledge on the specific mechanisms of how climate change may modify the effects of habitat fragmentation, for example, by altering dynamics of spatially structured populations. The long-term viability of metapopulations is dependent on independent dynamics of local populations, because it mitigates fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole. Metapopulation viability will be compromised if climate change increases spatial synchrony in weather conditions associated with population growth rates. We studied a recently reported increase in metapopulation synchrony of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Finnish archipelago, to see if it could be explained by an increase in synchrony of weather conditions. For this, we used 23 years of butterfly survey data together with monthly weather records for the same period. We first examined the associations between population growth rates within different regions of the metapopulation and weather conditions during different life-history stages of the butterfly. We then examined the association between the trends in the synchrony of the weather conditions and the synchrony of the butterfly metapopulation dynamics. We found that precipitation from spring to late summer are associated with the M. cinxia per capita growth rate, with early summer conditions being most important. We further found that the increase in metapopulation synchrony is paralleled by an increase in the synchrony of weather conditions. Alternative explanations for spatial synchrony, such as increased dispersal or trophic interactions with a specialist parasitoid, did not show paralleled trends and are not supported. The climate driven increase in M. cinxia metapopulation synchrony suggests that climate change can increase extinction risk of spatially structured populations living in fragmented landscapes by altering their dynamics. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The intrinsic periodic fluctuation of forest: a theoretical model based on diffusion equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, J.; Lin, G., Sr.

2015-12-01

Most forest dynamic models predict the stable state of size structure as well as the total basal area and biomass in mature forest, the variation of forest stands are mainly driven by environmental factors after the equilibrium has been reached. However, although the predicted power-law size-frequency distribution does exist in analysis of many forest inventory data sets, the estimated distribution exponents are always shifting between -2 and -4, and has a positive correlation with the mean value of DBH. This regular pattern can not be explained by the effects of stochastic disturbances on forest stands. Here, we adopted the partial differential equation (PDE) approach to deduce the systematic behavior of an ideal forest, by solving the diffusion equation under the restricted condition of invariable resource occupation, a periodic solution was gotten to meet the variable performance of forest size structure while the former models with stable performance were just a special case of the periodic solution when the fluctuation frequency equals zero. In our results, the number of individuals in each size class was the function of individual growth rate(G), mortality(M), size(D) and time(T), by borrowing the conclusion of allometric theory on these parameters, the results perfectly reflected the observed "exponent-mean DBH" relationship and also gave a logically complete description to the time varying form of forest size-frequency distribution. Our model implies that the total biomass of a forest can never reach a stable equilibrium state even in the absence of disturbances and climate regime shift, we propose the idea of intrinsic fluctuation property of forest and hope to provide a new perspective on forest dynamics and carbon cycle research.

Predictability and environmental drivers of chlorophyll fluctuations vary across different time scales and regions of the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blauw, Anouk N.; Benincà, Elisa; Laane, Remi W. P. M.; Greenwood, Naomi; Huisman, Jef

2018-02-01

Phytoplankton concentrations display strong temporal variability at different time scales. Recent advances in automated moorings enable detailed investigation of this variability. In this study, we analyzed phytoplankton fluctuations at four automated mooring stations in the North Sea, which measured phytoplankton abundance (chlorophyll) and several environmental variables at a temporal resolution of 12-30 min for two to nine years. The stations differed in tidal range, water depth and freshwater influence. This allowed comparison of the predictability and environmental drivers of phytoplankton variability across different time scales and geographical regions. We analyzed the time series using wavelet analysis, cross correlations and generalized additive models to quantify the response of chlorophyll fluorescence to various environmental variables (tidal and meteorological variables, salinity, suspended particulate matter, nitrate and sea surface temperature). Hour-to-hour and day-to-day fluctuations in chlorophyll fluorescence were substantial, and mainly driven by sinking and vertical mixing of phytoplankton cells, horizontal transport of different water masses, and non-photochemical quenching of the fluorescence signal. At the macro-tidal stations, these short-term phytoplankton fluctuations were strongly driven by the tides. Along the Dutch coast, variation in salinity associated with the freshwater influence of the river Rhine played an important role, while in the central North Sea variation in weather conditions was a major determinant of phytoplankton variability. At time scales of weeks to months, solar irradiance, nutrient conditions and thermal stratification were the dominant drivers of changes in chlorophyll concentrations. These results show that the dominant drivers of phytoplankton fluctuations differ across marine environments and time scales. Moreover, our findings show that phytoplankton variability on hourly to daily time scales should not be dismissed as environmental noise, but is related to vertical and horizontal particle transport driven by winds and tides. Quantification of these transport processes contributes to an improved predictability of marine phytoplankton concentrations.

High skill in low-frequency climate response through fluctuation dissipation theorems despite structural instability.

PubMed

Majda, Andrew J; Abramov, Rafail; Gershgorin, Boris

2010-01-12

Climate change science focuses on predicting the coarse-grained, planetary-scale, longtime changes in the climate system due to either changes in external forcing or internal variability, such as the impact of increased carbon dioxide. The predictions of climate change science are carried out through comprehensive, computational atmospheric, and oceanic simulation models, which necessarily parameterize physical features such as clouds, sea ice cover, etc. Recently, it has been suggested that there is irreducible imprecision in such climate models that manifests itself as structural instability in climate statistics and which can significantly hamper the skill of computer models for climate change. A systematic approach to deal with this irreducible imprecision is advocated through algorithms based on the Fluctuation Dissipation Theorem (FDT). There are important practical and computational advantages for climate change science when a skillful FDT algorithm is established. The FDT response operator can be utilized directly for multiple climate change scenarios, multiple changes in forcing, and other parameters, such as damping and inverse modelling directly without the need of running the complex climate model in each individual case. The high skill of FDT in predicting climate change, despite structural instability, is developed in an unambiguous fashion using mathematical theory as guidelines in three different test models: a generic class of analytical models mimicking the dynamical core of the computer climate models, reduced stochastic models for low-frequency variability, and models with a significant new type of irreducible imprecision involving many fast, unstable modes.

Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness

PubMed Central

Lenton, T. M.; Livina, V. N.; Dakos, V.; Van Nes, E. H.; Scheffer, M.

2012-01-01

We address whether robust early warning signals can, in principle, be provided before a climate tipping point is reached, focusing on methods that seek to detect critical slowing down as a precursor of bifurcation. As a test bed, six previously analysed datasets are reconsidered, three palaeoclimate records approaching abrupt transitions at the end of the last ice age and three models of varying complexity forced through a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Approaches based on examining the lag-1 autocorrelation function or on detrended fluctuation analysis are applied together and compared. The effects of aggregating the data, detrending method, sliding window length and filtering bandwidth are examined. Robust indicators of critical slowing down are found prior to the abrupt warming event at the end of the Younger Dryas, but the indicators are less clear prior to the Bølling-Allerød warming, or glacial termination in Antarctica. Early warnings of thermohaline circulation collapse can be masked by inter-annual variability driven by atmospheric dynamics. However, rapidly decaying modes can be successfully filtered out by using a long bandwidth or by aggregating data. The two methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses and we recommend applying them together to improve the robustness of early warnings. PMID:22291229

Periodic fluctuation of reference evapotranspiration during the past five decades: Does Evaporation Paradox really exist in China?

PubMed

Xing, Wanqiu; Wang, Weiguang; Shao, Quanxi; Yu, Zhongbo; Yang, Tao; Fu, Jianyu

2016-12-19

Evidence that the pan evaporation or reference evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) as the indicator of atmospheric evaporation capability have decreased along with the continuous increase in temperature over the past decades (coined as "evaporation paradox") has been reported worldwide. Here, we provide a nationwide investigation of spatiotemporal change of ET 0 using meteorological data from 602 stations with the updated data (1961-2011). In addition, we explore the trigger mechanism by quantitative assessment on the contribution of climatic factors to ET 0 change based on a differential equation method. In despite of different shift points regionally, our results suggest that the ET 0 generally present decadal variations rather than monotonic response to climate change reported in previous studies. The significant decrease in net radiation dominate the decrease in ET 0 before early 1990s in southern regions, while observed near-surface wind speed is the primary contributor to the variations of ET 0 for the rest regions during the same periods. The enhancements of atmospheric evaporation capability after early 1990s are driven primarily by recent relative humidity limitation in China. From a continental scale view, as highly correlating with to Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the shift behaviors of ET 0 is likely an episodic phenomenon of the ocean-atmosphere interaction in earth.

Periodic fluctuation of reference evapotranspiration during the past five decades: Does Evaporation Paradox really exist in China?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Wanqiu; Wang, Weiguang; Shao, Quanxi; Yu, Zhongbo; Yang, Tao; Fu, Jianyu

2016-12-01

Evidence that the pan evaporation or reference evapotranspiration (ET0) as the indicator of atmospheric evaporation capability have decreased along with the continuous increase in temperature over the past decades (coined as “evaporation paradox”) has been reported worldwide. Here, we provide a nationwide investigation of spatiotemporal change of ET0 using meteorological data from 602 stations with the updated data (1961-2011). In addition, we explore the trigger mechanism by quantitative assessment on the contribution of climatic factors to ET0 change based on a differential equation method. In despite of different shift points regionally, our results suggest that the ET0 generally present decadal variations rather than monotonic response to climate change reported in previous studies. The significant decrease in net radiation dominate the decrease in ET0 before early 1990s in southern regions, while observed near-surface wind speed is the primary contributor to the variations of ET0 for the rest regions during the same periods. The enhancements of atmospheric evaporation capability after early 1990s are driven primarily by recent relative humidity limitation in China. From a continental scale view, as highly correlating with to Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the shift behaviors of ET0 is likely an episodic phenomenon of the ocean-atmosphere interaction in earth.

Global correlation between surface heat fluxes and insolation in the 11-year solar cycle: The latitudinal effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volobuev, D. M.; Makarenko, N. G.

2014-12-01

Because of the small amplitude of insolation variations (1365.2-1366.6 W m-2 or 0.1%) from the 11-year solar cycle minimum to the cycle maximum and the structural complexity of the climatic dynamics, it is difficult to directly observe a solar signal in the surface temperature. The main difficulty is reduced to two factors: (1) a delay in the temperature response to external action due to thermal inertia, and (2) powerful internal fluctuations of the climatic dynamics suppressing the solar-driven component. In this work we take into account the first factor, solving the inverse problem of thermal conductivity in order to calculate the vertical heat flux from the measured temperature near the Earth's surface. The main model parameter—apparent thermal inertia—is calculated from the local seasonal extremums of temperature and albedo. We level the second factor by averaging mean annual heat fluxes in a latitudinal belt. The obtained mean heat fluxes significantly correlate with a difference between the insolation and optical depth of volcanic aerosol in the atmosphere, converted into a hindered heat flux. The calculated correlation smoothly increases with increasing latitude to 0.4-0.6, and the revealed latitudinal dependence is explained by the known effect of polar amplification.

Biogeochemical Cycling of Methane in the Proterozoic and Its Role in the Carbon Isotope Budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrag, D. P.; Laakso, T.

2016-12-01

Various studies have proposed that the biogeochemical cycle of methane has played an important role throughout Earth history, both in contributing to greenhouse stability of climate in the Archean and producing carbon isotope variations and climate fluctuations in the Proterozoic and Phanerozoic. Using a simple box model that couples the geochemical cycles on carbon, oxygen, hydrogen, iron, and sulfur, combined with recent studies of methane cycling in anoxic environments, we reexamine the role of methane in both the Archean and Proterozoic, focusing on methane's role in the carbon isotope budget. We find that methane plays a much more modest role at all times of relative anoxia in the deep ocean, which requires an alternative explanation for the carbon isotope record, in particular the "boring billion" during the Mesoproterozoic. In particular, the high burial efficiency driven by lower oxygen levels drives primary production to much lower levels than has been previously described, resulting in relatively little organic matter available for methanogenesis. In addition, the anoxia in deep water results in a reduced role for methanotrophy at these times, and therefore a change in the mechanisms for production of authigenic carbonate, which may have played a significant role in the carbon isotope budget.

Climate-driven longitudinal trends in pasture-borne helminth infections of dairy cattle.

PubMed

Charlier, Johannes; Ghebretinsae, Aklilu H; Levecke, Bruno; Ducheyne, Els; Claerebout, Edwin; Vercruysse, Jozef

2016-12-01

Helminth parasites of grazing ruminants are highly prevalent globally and impact negatively on animal productivity and food security. There is a growing concern that climate change increases helminth disease frequency and intensity. In Europe, these concerns stem from case reports and theoretical life cycle models assessing the effects of climate change scenarios on helminth epidemiology. We believe this study is the first to investigate climate-driven trends in helminth infections of cattle on a cohort of randomly selected farms. One thousand, six hundred and eighty dairy farms were monitored over an 8year period for the two major helminth infections in temperate climate regions and climate-driven trends were investigated by multivariable linear mixed models. The general levels of exposure to Fasciola hepatica decreased over the study period while those to Ostertagia ostertagi increased, and this could at least be partially explained by meteorological factors (i.e. the number of rainy (precipitation >1mm) and warm days (average daily temperature >10°C) in a year). The longitudinal trends varied according to the altitude and the agricultural region of the farm. This study shows that longitudinal epidemiological data from sentinel farms combined with meteorological datasets can significantly contribute to understanding the effects of climate on infectious disease dynamics. When local environmental conditions are taken into account, the effects of climate change on disease dynamics can also be understood at more local scales. We recommend setting up a longitudinal sampling strategy across Europe in order to monitor climate-driven changes in helminth disease risk to inform adaptation strategies to promote animal health and productivity. Copyright © 2016 Australian Society for Parasitology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risky Business and the American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, K.; Houser, T.; Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Larsen, K.; Jina, A.; Delgado, M.; Muir-Wood, R.; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.; Mastrandrea, M.; Wilson, P. S.

2014-12-01

The United States faces a range of economic risks from global climate change - from increased flooding and storm damage, to climate-driven changes in crop yields and labor productivity, to heat-related strains on energy and public health systems. The Risky Business Project commissioned a groundbreaking new analysis of these and other climate risks by region of the country and sector of the economy. The American Climate Prospectus (ACP) links state-of-the-art climate models with econometric research of human responses to climate variability and cutting edge private sector risk assessment tools, the ACP offers decision-makers a data driven assessment of the specific risks they face. We describe the challenge, methods, findings, and policy implications of the national risk analysis, with particular focus on methodological innovations and novel insights.

Fluctuation-dissipation relation and stationary distribution of an exactly solvable many-particle model for active biomatter far from equilibrium.

PubMed

Netz, Roland R

2018-05-14

An exactly solvable, Hamiltonian-based model of many massive particles that are coupled by harmonic potentials and driven by stochastic non-equilibrium forces is introduced. The stationary distribution and the fluctuation-dissipation relation are derived in closed form for the general non-equilibrium case. Deviations from equilibrium are on one hand characterized by the difference of the obtained stationary distribution from the Boltzmann distribution; this is possible because the model derives from a particle Hamiltonian. On the other hand, the difference between the obtained non-equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation relation and the standard equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem allows us to quantify non-equilibrium in an alternative fashion. Both indicators of non-equilibrium behavior, i.e., deviations from the Boltzmann distribution and deviations from the equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem, can be expressed in terms of a single non-equilibrium parameter α that involves the ratio of friction coefficients and random force strengths. The concept of a non-equilibrium effective temperature, which can be defined by the relation between fluctuations and the dissipation, is by comparison with the exactly derived stationary distribution shown not to hold, even if the effective temperature is made frequency dependent. The analysis is not confined to close-to-equilibrium situations but rather is exact and thus holds for arbitrarily large deviations from equilibrium. Also, the suggested harmonic model can be obtained from non-linear mechanical network systems by an expansion in terms of suitably chosen deviatory coordinates; the obtained results should thus be quite general. This is demonstrated by comparison of the derived non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation relation with experimental data on actin networks that are driven out of equilibrium by energy-consuming protein motors. The comparison is excellent and allows us to extract the non-equilibrium parameter α from experimental spectral response and fluctuation data.

Fluctuation-dissipation relation and stationary distribution of an exactly solvable many-particle model for active biomatter far from equilibrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Netz, Roland R.

2018-05-01

An exactly solvable, Hamiltonian-based model of many massive particles that are coupled by harmonic potentials and driven by stochastic non-equilibrium forces is introduced. The stationary distribution and the fluctuation-dissipation relation are derived in closed form for the general non-equilibrium case. Deviations from equilibrium are on one hand characterized by the difference of the obtained stationary distribution from the Boltzmann distribution; this is possible because the model derives from a particle Hamiltonian. On the other hand, the difference between the obtained non-equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation relation and the standard equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem allows us to quantify non-equilibrium in an alternative fashion. Both indicators of non-equilibrium behavior, i.e., deviations from the Boltzmann distribution and deviations from the equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem, can be expressed in terms of a single non-equilibrium parameter α that involves the ratio of friction coefficients and random force strengths. The concept of a non-equilibrium effective temperature, which can be defined by the relation between fluctuations and the dissipation, is by comparison with the exactly derived stationary distribution shown not to hold, even if the effective temperature is made frequency dependent. The analysis is not confined to close-to-equilibrium situations but rather is exact and thus holds for arbitrarily large deviations from equilibrium. Also, the suggested harmonic model can be obtained from non-linear mechanical network systems by an expansion in terms of suitably chosen deviatory coordinates; the obtained results should thus be quite general. This is demonstrated by comparison of the derived non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation relation with experimental data on actin networks that are driven out of equilibrium by energy-consuming protein motors. The comparison is excellent and allows us to extract the non-equilibrium parameter α from experimental spectral response and fluctuation data.

Parasite biodiversity faces extinction and redistribution in a changing climate

PubMed Central

Carlson, Colin J.; Burgio, Kevin R.; Dougherty, Eric R.; Phillips, Anna J.; Bueno, Veronica M.; Clements, Christopher F.; Castaldo, Giovanni; Dallas, Tad A.; Cizauskas, Carrie A.; Cumming, Graeme S.; Doña, Jorge; Harris, Nyeema C.; Jovani, Roger; Mironov, Sergey; Muellerklein, Oliver C.; Proctor, Heather C.; Getz, Wayne M.

2017-01-01

Climate change is a well-documented driver of both wildlife extinction and disease emergence, but the negative impacts of climate change on parasite diversity are undocumented. We compiled the most comprehensive spatially explicit data set available for parasites, projected range shifts in a changing climate, and estimated extinction rates for eight major parasite clades. On the basis of 53,133 occurrences capturing the geographic ranges of 457 parasite species, conservative model projections suggest that 5 to 10% of these species are committed to extinction by 2070 from climate-driven habitat loss alone. We find no evidence that parasites with zoonotic potential have a significantly higher potential to gain range in a changing climate, but we do find that ectoparasites (especially ticks) fare disproportionately worse than endoparasites. Accounting for host-driven coextinctions, models predict that up to 30% of parasitic worms are committed to extinction, driven by a combination of direct and indirect pressures. Despite high local extinction rates, parasite richness could still increase by an order of magnitude in some places, because species successfully tracking climate change invade temperate ecosystems and replace native species with unpredictable ecological consequences. PMID:28913417

On the data-driven inference of modulatory networks in climate science: an application to West African rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, D. L., II; Angus, M. P.; Tetteh, I. K.; Bello, G. A.; Padmanabhan, K.; Pendse, S. V.; Srinivas, S.; Yu, J.; Semazzi, F.; Kumar, V.; Samatova, N. F.

2015-01-01

Decades of hypothesis-driven and/or first-principles research have been applied towards the discovery and explanation of the mechanisms that drive climate phenomena, such as western African Sahel summer rainfall~variability. Although connections between various climate factors have been theorized, not all of the key relationships are fully understood. We propose a data-driven approach to identify candidate players in this climate system, which can help explain underlying mechanisms and/or even suggest new relationships, to facilitate building a more comprehensive and predictive model of the modulatory relationships influencing a climate phenomenon of interest. We applied coupled heterogeneous association rule mining (CHARM), Lasso multivariate regression, and dynamic Bayesian networks to find relationships within a complex system, and explored means with which to obtain a consensus result from the application of such varied methodologies. Using this fusion of approaches, we identified relationships among climate factors that modulate Sahel rainfall. These relationships fall into two categories: well-known associations from prior climate knowledge, such as the relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and putative links, such as North Atlantic Oscillation, that invite further research.

On the data-driven inference of modulatory networks in climate science: An application to West African rainfall

DOE PAGES

Gonzalez, II, D. L.; Angus, M. P.; Tetteh, I. K.; ...

2015-01-13

Decades of hypothesis-driven and/or first-principles research have been applied towards the discovery and explanation of the mechanisms that drive climate phenomena, such as western African Sahel summer rainfall~variability. Although connections between various climate factors have been theorized, not all of the key relationships are fully understood. We propose a data-driven approach to identify candidate players in this climate system, which can help explain underlying mechanisms and/or even suggest new relationships, to facilitate building a more comprehensive and predictive model of the modulatory relationships influencing a climate phenomenon of interest. We applied coupled heterogeneous association rule mining (CHARM), Lasso multivariate regression,more » and dynamic Bayesian networks to find relationships within a complex system, and explored means with which to obtain a consensus result from the application of such varied methodologies. Using this fusion of approaches, we identified relationships among climate factors that modulate Sahel rainfall. As a result, these relationships fall into two categories: well-known associations from prior climate knowledge, such as the relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and putative links, such as North Atlantic Oscillation, that invite further research.« less

Geological events and Pliocene climate fluctuations explain the phylogeographical pattern of the cold water fish Rhynchocypris oxycephalus (Cypriniformes: Cyprinidae) in China.

PubMed

Yu, Dan; Chen, Ming; Tang, Qiongying; Li, Xiaojuan; Liu, Huanzhang

2014-10-25

Rhynchocypris oxycephalus is a cold water fish with a wide geographic distribution including the relatively warm temperate regions of southern China. It also occurs in second- and third-step geomorphic areas in China. Previous studies have postulated that high-altitude populations of R. oxycephalus in southern China are Quaternary glacial relics. In this study, we used the mitochondrial gene Cytb and the nuclear gene RAG2 to investigate the species phylogeographical patterns and to test two biogeographic hypotheses: (1) that divergence between lineages supports the three-step model and (2) climatic fluctuations during the Quaternary resulted in the present distribution in southern China. Phylogenetic analysis detected three major matrilines (A, B, and C); with matrilines B and C being further subdivided into two submatrilines. Based on genetic distances and morphological differences, matriline A potentially represents a cryptic subspecies. The geographic division between matrilines B and C coincided with the division of the second and third geomorphic steps in China, suggesting a historical vicariance event. Pliocene climatic fluctuations might have facilitated the southwards dispersal of R. oxycephalus in matriline C, with the subsequent warming resulting in its split into submatrilines C1 and C2, leaving submatriline C2 as a relic in southern China. Our study demonstrates that geological events (three steps orogenesis) and climate fluctuations during the Pliocene were important factors in shaping phylogeographical patterns in R. oxycephalus. Notably, no genetic diversity was detected in several populations, all of which possessed unique genotypes. This indicates the uniqueness of local populations and calls for a special conservation plan for the whole species at the population level.

Lithostratigraphy and physical properties of lacustrine sediments of the last ca. 150 kyr from Chalco basin, central México

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega-Guerrero, Beatriz; Lozano-García, Socorro; Herrera-Hernández, Dimitris; Caballero, Margarita; Beramendi-Orosco, Laura; Bernal, Juan Pablo; Torres-Rodríguez, Esperanza; Avendaño-Villeda, Diana

2017-11-01

The recognition of past climatic fluctuations in sedimentary sequences in central Mexico is relevant for understanding the forcing mechanisms and responses of climatic system in the northern American tropic. Moreover, in this active volcanic setting the sedimentary record preserves the history of past volcanic activity. Climatic and environmental variability has been documented for the last tenths of thousands of years from the upper lacustrine sediments in Chalco basin. A series of cores drilled down to 122 m depth in this basin offer a long, continuous and high resolution record of past climatic changes of the last ca. 150 kyr in this region. Here we present the detailed lithostratigraphy and some physical properties (magnetic susceptibility and density) of the master sequence. Sedimentary components and their abundance were identified and quantified in smear slides and direct core observations. Age model is based on 13 14C and one 230Th/U dates. Based on their facies association seven lithostratigraphic units were defined, which reflect the main stages of lake Chalco evolution. These phases closely match the marine isotopic stages. The data reveal that at the end of MIS6 Chalco was a relatively deep and stratified freshwater lake. During MIS5 the depositional environment fluctuated between low lake stands to marshy and marginal playa settings with sporadic flooding events, and severe arid periods resulted in aerial exposure of lake sediments. Low lake stands persisted during MIS4 and MIS3, with minor fluctuations towards slightly deeper phases. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the deglacial period (21-13 kyr) are characterized by intense volcanism. The early and mid-Holocene high calcareous content and alkaline-subsaline lake suggest dry conditions. The fluctuations of lake levels inferred provide the basis for future paleoclimatic works.

Hotspots of Community Change: Temporal Dynamics Are Spatially Variable in Understory Plant Composition of a California Oak Woodland

PubMed Central

Spotswood, Erica N.; Bartolome, James W.; Allen-Diaz, Barbara

2015-01-01

Community response to external drivers such climate and disturbance can lead to fluctuations in community composition, or to directional change. Temporal dynamics can be influenced by a combination of drivers operating at multiple spatial scales, including external landscape scale drivers, local abiotic conditions, and local species pools. We hypothesized that spatial variation in these factors can create heterogeneity in temporal dynamics within landscapes. We used understory plant species composition from an 11 year dataset from a California oak woodland to compare plots where disturbance was experimentally manipulated with the removal of livestock grazing and a prescribed burn. We quantified three properties of temporal variation: compositional change (reflecting the appearance and disappearance of species), temporal fluctuation, and directional change. Directional change was related most strongly to disturbance type, and was highest at plots where grazing was removed during the study. Temporal fluctuations, compositional change, and directional change were all related to intrinsic abiotic factors, suggesting that some locations are more responsive to external drivers than others. Temporal fluctuations and compositional change were linked to local functional composition, indicating that environmental filters can create subsets of the local species pool that do not respond in the same way to external drivers. Temporal dynamics are often assumed to be relatively static at the landscape scale, provided disturbance and climate are continuous. This study shows that local and landscape scale factors jointly influence temporal dynamics creating hotspots that are particularly responsive to climate and disturbance. Thus, adequate predictions of response to disturbance or to changing climate will only be achieved by considering how factors at multiple spatial scales influence community resilience and recovery. PMID:26222069

An event-based approach to understanding decadal fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allison, Lesley; Hawkins, Ed; Woollings, Tim

2015-01-01

Many previous studies have shown that unforced climate model simulations exhibit decadal-scale fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and that this variability can have impacts on surface climate fields. However, the robustness of these surface fingerprints across different models is less clear. Furthermore, with the potential for coupled feedbacks that may amplify or damp the response, it is not known whether the associated climate signals are linearly related to the strength of the AMOC changes, or if the fluctuation events exhibit nonlinear behaviour with respect to their strength or polarity. To explore these questions, we introduce an objective and flexible method for identifying the largest natural AMOC fluctuation events in multicentennial/multimillennial simulations of a variety of coupled climate models. The characteristics of the events are explored, including their magnitude, meridional coherence and spatial structure, as well as links with ocean heat transport and the horizontal circulation. The surface fingerprints in ocean temperature and salinity are examined, and compared with the results of linear regression analysis. It is found that the regressions generally provide a good indication of the surface changes associated with the largest AMOC events. However, there are some exceptions, including a nonlinear change in the atmospheric pressure signal, particularly at high latitudes, in HadCM3. Some asymmetries are also found between the changes associated with positive and negative AMOC events in the same model. Composite analysis suggests that there are signals that are robust across the largest AMOC events in each model, which provides reassurance that the surface changes associated with one particular event will be similar to those expected from regression analysis. However, large differences are found between the AMOC fingerprints in different models, which may hinder the prediction and attribution of such events in reality.

Hotspots of Community Change: Temporal Dynamics Are Spatially Variable in Understory Plant Composition of a California Oak Woodland.

PubMed

Spotswood, Erica N; Bartolome, James W; Allen-Diaz, Barbara

2015-01-01

Community response to external drivers such climate and disturbance can lead to fluctuations in community composition, or to directional change. Temporal dynamics can be influenced by a combination of drivers operating at multiple spatial scales, including external landscape scale drivers, local abiotic conditions, and local species pools. We hypothesized that spatial variation in these factors can create heterogeneity in temporal dynamics within landscapes. We used understory plant species composition from an 11 year dataset from a California oak woodland to compare plots where disturbance was experimentally manipulated with the removal of livestock grazing and a prescribed burn. We quantified three properties of temporal variation: compositional change (reflecting the appearance and disappearance of species), temporal fluctuation, and directional change. Directional change was related most strongly to disturbance type, and was highest at plots where grazing was removed during the study. Temporal fluctuations, compositional change, and directional change were all related to intrinsic abiotic factors, suggesting that some locations are more responsive to external drivers than others. Temporal fluctuations and compositional change were linked to local functional composition, indicating that environmental filters can create subsets of the local species pool that do not respond in the same way to external drivers. Temporal dynamics are often assumed to be relatively static at the landscape scale, provided disturbance and climate are continuous. This study shows that local and landscape scale factors jointly influence temporal dynamics creating hotspots that are particularly responsive to climate and disturbance. Thus, adequate predictions of response to disturbance or to changing climate will only be achieved by considering how factors at multiple spatial scales influence community resilience and recovery.

Using Scaling to Understand, Model and Predict Global Scale Anthropogenic and Natural Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.

2014-12-01

The atmosphere is variable over twenty orders of magnitude in time (≈10-3 to 1017 s) and almost all of the variance is in the spectral "background" which we show can be divided into five scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate, macroclimate and megaclimate. We illustrate this with instrumental and paleo data. Based the signs of the fluctuation exponent H, we argue that while the weather is "what you get" (H>0: fluctuations increasing with scale), that it is macroweather (H<0: fluctuations decreasing with scale) - not climate - "that you expect". The conventional framework that treats the background as close to white noise and focuses on quasi-periodic variability assumes a spectrum that is in error by a factor of a quadrillion (≈ 1015). Using this scaling framework, we can quantify the natural variability, distinguish it from anthropogenic variability, test various statistical hypotheses and make stochastic climate forecasts. For example, we estimate the probability that the warming is simply a giant century long natural fluctuation is less than 1%, most likely less than 0.1% and estimate return periods for natural warming events of different strengths and durations, including the slow down ("pause") in the warming since 1998. The return period for the pause was found to be 20-50 years i.e. not very unusual; however it immediately follows a 6 year "pre-pause" warming event of almost the same magnitude with a similar return period (30 - 40 years). To improve on these unconditional estimates, we can use scaling models to exploit the long range memory of the climate process to make accurate stochastic forecasts of the climate including the pause. We illustrate stochastic forecasts on monthly and annual scale series of global and northern hemisphere surface temperatures. We obtain forecast skill nearly as high as the theoretical (scaling) predictability limits allow: for example, using hindcasts we find that at 10 year forecast horizons we can still explain ≈ 15% of the anomaly variance. These scaling hindcasts have comparable - or smaller - RMS errors than existing GCM's. We discuss how these be further improved by going beyond time series forecasts to space-time.

Fire severity mediates climate-driven shifts in understorey community composition of black spruce stands of interior Alaska

Treesearch

Emily L. Bernhardt; Teresa N. Hollingsworth; F. Stuart Chapin

2011-01-01

Question: How do pre-fire conditions (community composition and environmental characteristics) and climate-driven disturbance characteristics (fire severity) affect post-fire community composition in black spruce stands? Location: Northern boreal forest, interior Alaska. Methods: We compared plant community composition and environmental stand characteristics in 14...

Icy Layers and Climate Fluctuations near the Martian North Pole

NASA Image and Video Library

2010-03-31

The Martian north polar layered deposits are an ice sheet much like the Greenland ice sheet on the Earth in this image from NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. This Martian ice sheet contains many layers that record variations in the Martian climate.

Evaluating the response of Lake Prespa (SW Balkan) to future climate change projections from a high-resolution model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Schriek, Tim; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos

2017-04-01

The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change. Projections suggest that the Balkans will experience precipitation and runoff decreases of up to 30% by 2100. However, these projections show large regional spatial variability. Mediterranean lake-wetland systems are particularly threatened by projected climate changes that compound increasingly intensive human impacts (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of individual lake-wetland hydrological responses to future climate changes, which requires fine-resolution projections and a good understanding of the impact of hydro-climate variability on individual lakes. Climate change may directly affect lake level (variability), volume and water temperatures. In turn, these variables influence lake-ecology, habitats and water quality. Land-use intensification and water abstraction multiply these climate-driven changes. To date, there are no projections of future water level and -temperature of individual Mediterranean lakes under future climate scenarios. These are, however, of crucial importance to steer preservation strategies on the relevant catchment-scale. Here we present the first projections of water level and -temperature of the Prespa Lakes covering the period 2071-2100. These lakes are of global significance for biodiversity, and of great regional socio-economic importance as a water resource and tourist attraction. Impact projections are assessed by the Regional Climate Model RCA4 of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) driven by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology global climate model MPI-ESM-LR under two RCP future emissions scenarios, the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, with the simulations carried out in the framework of EURO-CORDEX. Temperature, evapo(transpi)ration and precipitation over the Prespa catchment were simulated with this high horizontal resolution (12 × 12 km) regional climate model. Lake temperatures were derived from surface temperatures based on physical models, while water levels were calculated with the lake water balance model. Climate simulations indicate that annual- and wet season catchment precipitation does not significantly change by the end of the century. The median precipitation decreases, while precipitation variability increases. The percentage of annual precipitation falling in the wet season increases by 5-10%, indicating a stronger seasonality in the precipitation regime. Summer (lake) temperatures and lake surface evaporation will rise significantly under both explored climate change scenarios. Lake impact projections indicate that evaporation changes will cause the water level of Lake Megali Prespa to fall by 5m to 840-839m. The increased precipitation variability will cause large inter-annual water level fluctuations. Average water level may fall even further if: (1) drier summers lead to more water abstraction for irrigation, and (2) there is a reduction in winter snowfall/accumulation and thus less discharge. These findings are of key importance for developing sustainable lake water resource management in a region that is highly vulnerable to future climate change and already experiences significant water stress. Research paves the way for innovative management adaptation strategies focussed on decreasing water abstraction, for example through introducing smart irrigation and selecting more water efficient crops.

New Insights into the 8.2 ka Cold Event and Subsequent Climate Recovery in Central Europe Provided by a Precisely Dated Ostracod δ18O Record from Mondsee (Austria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauterbach, S.; Andersen, N.; Brauer, A.; Erlenkeuser, H.; Danielopol, D. L.; Namiotko, T.; Huels, M.; Belmecheri, S.; Nantke, C.; Meyer, H.; Chapligin, B.; von Grafenstein, U.

2015-12-01

As evidenced by numerous palaeoclimate records worldwide, the Holocene warm period has been interrupted by several short, low-amplitude cold episodes. Among these, the so-called 8.2 ka cold event is the most prominent Holocene climate perturbation but despite extensive studies, knowledge about its synchrony in different areas and particularly about the dynamics of subsequent climate recovery is still limited. As this is of crucial importance for understanding the complex mechanisms that trigger rapid climate fluctuations and for testing the performance of climate models, new data on the 8.2 ka cold event are needed. Here we present a new sub-decadally resolved, precisely dated oxygen isotope (δ18O) record for the interval 7.7-8.7 ka BP obtained from benthic ostracods preserved in the varved lake sediments of Mondsee (Austria), providing new insights into climate development around the 8.2 ka cold event in Central Europe. The new high-resolution δ18O data set reveals the occurrence of a pronounced cold spell around 8.2 ka BP, whose amplitude (~1.0 ‰, equivalent to a 1.5-2.0 °C cooling), total duration (151 a) and absolute dating (8231-8080 a BP, i.e. calendar years before AD 1950) perfectly agree with results from other Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives, e.g. the precisely dated Greenland ice cores. In addition, the Mondsee δ18O record also indicates a 75-year-long air temperature overshoot of ~0.7 °C directly after the 8.2 ka event (between 8080 and 8005 a BP), which is so far only poorly documented in the mid-latitudes. However, this observation is consistent with results from coupled climate models and high-latitude proxy records, thus likely reflecting a hemispheric-scale climate signal driven by enhanced resumption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which apparently also caused synchronous migrations of atmospheric and oceanic front systems in the North Atlantic realm.

Fluctuation driven electroweak phase transition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gleiser, Marcelo; Kolb, Edward W.

1991-01-01

We examine the dynamics of the electroweak phase transition in the early Universe. For Higgs masses in the range 46 less than or = M sub H less than or = 150 GeV and top quark masses less than 200 GeV, regions of symmetric and asymmetric vacuum coexist to below the critical temperature, with thermal equilibrium between the two phases maintained by fluctuations of both phases. We propose that the transition to the asymmetric vacuum is completed by percolation of these subcritical fluctuations. Our results are relevant to scenarios of baryogenesis that invoke a weakly first-order phase transition at the electroweak scale.

Fluctuation-driven electroweak phase transition. [in early universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gleiser, Marcelo; Kolb, Edward W.

1992-01-01

We examine the dynamics of the electroweak phase transition in the early Universe. For Higgs masses in the range 46 less than or = M sub H less than or = 150 GeV and top quark masses less than 200 GeV, regions of symmetric and asymmetric vacuum coexist to below the critical temperature, with thermal equilibrium between the two phases maintained by fluctuations of both phases. We propose that the transition to the asymmetric vacuum is completed by percolation of these subcritical fluctuations. Our results are relevant to scenarios of baryogenesis that invoke a weakly first-order phase transition at the electroweak scale.

Quantifying salinity-induced changes on estuarine benthic fauna: The potential implications of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Little, S.; Wood, P. J.; Elliott, M.

2017-11-01

Coastal and estuarine systems worldwide are under threat from global climate change, with potential consequences including an increase in salinities and incursion of saltwater into areas currently subject to tidal and non-tidal freshwater regimes. It is commonly assumed that climate-driven increases in estuarine salinities and saline incursion will be directly reflected in an upstream shift in species distributions and patterns of community composition based on salinity tolerance. This study examined the responses of benthos to medium-term salinity changes in two macrotidal river-estuary systems in SE England to test whether these responses may be representative of climate-induced salinity changes over the long-term. The study reinforced the effect of salinity, related to tidal incursion, as the primary environmental driver of benthic species distribution and community composition. Salinity, however, acted within a hierarchy of factors followed by substratum type, with biotic competition and predator-prey relationships superimposed on these. The assumption that increasing salinities will be directly reflected in a shift in species distributions and patterns of community composition upstream over the long-term was shown to be over simplistic and not representative of a complex and highly variable system. Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) projections were predicted to increase estuarine salinities and saline incursion in the study estuaries, which together with projected reductions in river flow will have important consequences for estuarine structure and function, particularly in tidal limnetic zones, despite estuarine communities being pre-adapted to cope with fluctuating salinities. The study identified, however, that limnic-derived fauna inhabiting these zones may demonstrate greater tolerance to salinity change than is currently recognised, and may persist where salinity increases are gradual and zones unbounded.

Caves, Carbonates and Climate: Karst Landscape Development through Environmental Forcing, Little Cayman Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsia, S.; Ouellette, G., Jr.; Manfrino, C.

2016-12-01

The Cayman Islands are situated in the west-central Caribbean Sea, between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. Little Cayman Island (LCI) is relatively underdeveloped and understudied in comparison to its sister islands, Grand Cayman and Cayman Brac, and hosts less than 200 permanent residents over a 30 square kilometer area. However, like its sister islands, LCI is a small carbonate platform derived from reef building during the Oligocene, Miocene, and Quaternary. The shared geologic history of the Cayman Islands along with minimal human disturbance makes LCI an ideal site to study an island karst landscape. Conduction of field surveys, stratigraphic and petrologic comparisons between primary lithologic formations, and compilation of a geospatial inventory of karst features and lithology of LCI using GIS revealed novel insights into landscape evolution on LCI. In addition to surface karst surveys, several caves on the island were mapped. Cave morphologies suggest that evolution of LCI karst features have been driven by both hydroclimate, as well as salt and freshwater mixing, modulated by sea level fluctuations. These findings are mirrored in the lithology of partially dolomitized Miocene carbonates, which contain paleo-karst fill features and reveal hydroclimate influence, as well as enhanced resistance to dissolution in the present day, ostensibly from submersion in Mg-rich sea waters prior to the Quaternary. These findings shed light on the complex relationship of climate, geology, and karst landscape development on this particular carbonate island. This information is critical in anticipating structural and hydrogeological integrity on LCI under future climate change scenarios and serves as an example of the interplay linking climate and geologic processes to karst landscape development on small carbonate islands.

Climate alters intraspecific variation in copepod effect traits through pond food webs.

PubMed

Charette, Cristina; Derry, Alison M

2016-05-01

Essential fatty acids (EFAs) are primarily generated by phytoplankton in aquatic ecosystems, and can limit the growth, development, and reproduction of higher consumers. Among the most critical of the EFAs are highly unsaturated fatty acids (HUFAs), which are only produced by certain groups of phytoplankton. Changing environmental conditions can alter phytoplankton community and fatty acid composition and affect the HUFA content of higher trophic levels. Almost no research has addressed intraspecific variation in HUFAs in zooplankton, nor intraspecific relationships of HUFAs with body size and fecundity. This is despite that intraspecific variation in HUFAs can exceed interspecific variation and that intraspecific trait variation in body size and fecundity is increasingly recognized to have an important role in food web ecology (effect traits). Our study addressed the relative influences of abiotic selection and food web effects associated with climate change on intraspecific differences and interrelationships between HUFA content, body size, and fecundity of freshwater copepods. We applied structural equation modeling and regression analyses to intraspecific variation in a dominant calanoid copepod, Leptodiatomus minutus, among a series of shallow north-temperate ponds. Climate-driven diurnal temperature fluctuations favored the coexistence of diversity of phytoplankton groups with different temperature optima and nutritive quality. This resulted in unexpected positive relationships between temperature, copepod DHA content and body size. Temperature correlated positively with diatom biovolume, and mediated relationships between copepod HUFA content and body size, and between copepod body size and fecundity. The presence of brook trout further accentuated these positive effects in warm ponds, likely through nutrient cycling and stimulation of phytoplankton resources. Climate change may have previously unrecognized positive effects on freshwater copepod DHA content, body size, and fecundity in the small, shallow bodies of inland waters that are commonly found in north-temperate landscapes.

Sink- or Source-driven Phanerozoic carbon cycle?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godderis, Y.; Donnadieu, Y.; Maffre, P.; Carretier, S.

2017-12-01

The Phanerozoic evolution of the atmospheric CO2 level is controlled by the fluxes entering or leaving the exospheric system. Those fluxes (including continental weathering, magmatic degassing, organic carbon burial, oxidation of sedimentary organic carbon) are intertwined, and their relative importance in driving the global carbon cycle evolution may have fluctuated through time. Deciphering the causes of the Phanerozoic climate evolution thus requires a holistic and quantitative approach. Here we focus on the role played by the paleogeographic configuration on the efficiency of the CO2 sink by continental silicate weathering, and on the impact of the magmatic degassing of CO2. We use the spatially resolved numerical model GEOCLIM (geoclimmodel.worpress.com) to compute the response of the silicate weathering and atmospheric CO2 to continental drift for 22 time slices of the Phanerozoic. Regarding the CO2 released by the magmatic activity, we reconstruct several Phanerozoic histories of this flux, based on published indexes. We calculate the CO2 evolution for each degassing scenario, and accounting for the paleogeographic setting. We show that the paleogeographic setting is a main driver of the climate from 540 Ma to about the beginning of the Jurassic. Regarding the role of the magmatic degassing, the various reconstructions do not converge towards a single signal, and thus introduce large uncertainties in the calculated CO2 level over time. Nevertheless, the continental dispersion, which prevails since the Jurassic, promotes the CO2 consumption by weathering and forces atmospheric CO2 to stay low. Warm climates of the "middle" Cretaceous and early Cenozoic require enhanced CO2 degassing by magmatic activity. In summary, the Phanerozoic climate evolution can be hardly assigned to a single process, but is the result of complex and intertwined processes.

Disentangling the effects of feedback structure and climate on Poaceae annual airborne pollen fluctuations and the possible consequences of climate change.

PubMed

García de León, David; García-Mozo, Herminia; Galán, Carmen; Alcázar, Purificación; Lima, Mauricio; González-Andújar, José L

2015-10-15

Pollen allergies are the most common form of respiratory allergic disease in Europe. Most studies have emphasized the role of environmental processes, as the drivers of airborne pollen fluctuations, implicitly considering pollen production as a random walk. This work shows that internal self-regulating processes of the plants (negative feedback) should be included in pollen dynamic systems in order to give a better explanation of the observed pollen temporal patterns. This article proposes a novel methodological approach based on dynamic systems to investigate the interaction between feedback structure of plant populations and climate in shaping long-term airborne Poaceae pollen fluctuations and to quantify the effects of climate change on future airborne pollen concentrations. Long-term historical airborne Poaceae pollen data (30 years) from Cordoba city (Southern Spain) were analyzed. A set of models, combining feedback structure, temperature and actual evapotranspiration effects on airborne Poaceae pollen were built and compared, using a model selection approach. Our results highlight the importance of first-order negative feedback and mean annual maximum temperature in driving airborne Poaceae pollen dynamics. The best model was used to predict the effects of climate change under two standardized scenarios representing contrasting temporal patterns of economic development and CO2 emissions. Our results predict an increase in pollen levels in southern Spain by 2070 ranging from 28.5% to 44.3%. The findings from this study provide a greater understanding of airborne pollen dynamics and how climate change might impact the future evolution of airborne Poaceae pollen concentrations and thus the future evolution of related pollen allergies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trans-pacific glacial response to the Antarctic Cold Reversal in the southern mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sagredo, Esteban A.; Kaplan, Michael R.; Araya, Paola S.; Lowell, Thomas V.; Aravena, Juan C.; Moreno, Patricio I.; Kelly, Meredith A.; Schaefer, Joerg M.

2018-05-01

Elucidating the timing and regional extent of abrupt climate events during the last glacial-interglacial transition (∼18-11.5 ka) is critical for identifying spatial patterns and mechanisms responsible for large-magnitude climate events. The record of climate change in the Southern Hemisphere during this time period, however, remains scarce and unevenly distributed. We present new geomorphic, chronological, and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) data from a climatically sensitive mountain glacier at Monte San Lorenzo (47°S), Central Patagonia. Twenty-four new cosmogenic 10Be exposure ages from moraines provide a comprehensive glacial record in the mid-latitudes of South America, which constrain the timing, spatial extent and magnitude of glacial fluctuations during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR, ∼14.5-12.9 ka). Río Tranquilo glacier advanced and reached a maximum extent at 13.9 ± 0.7 ka. Three additional inboard moraines afford statistically similar ages, indicating repeated glacier expansions or marginal fluctuations over the ACR. Our record represents the northernmost robust evidence of glacial fluctuations during the ACR in southern South America, documenting not only the timing of the ACR maximum, but also the sequence of glacier changes within this climate event. Based on ELA reconstructions, we estimate a cooling of >1.6-1.8 °C at the peak of the ACR. The Río Tranquilo record along with existing glacial reconstructions from New Zealand (43°S) and paleovegetation records from northwestern (41°S) and central-west (45°S) Patagonia, suggest an uniform trans-Pacific glacier-climate response to an ACR trigger across the southern mid-latitudes. We posit that the equatorial migration of the southern westerly winds provides an adequate mechanism to propagate a common ACR signal across the Southern Hemisphere.

Life cycle and masting of a recovering keystone indicator species under climate fluctuation

Treesearch

Qinfeng Guo; Stanley J. Zarnoch; Xiongwen Chen; Dale G. Brockway

2016-01-01

Ecosystem health and sustainability, to a large degree, depend on the performance of keystone or dominant species. The role of climate on population dynamics of such species has been extensively examined, especially for health indicator species. Yet the life-cycle processes and response lags for many species could complicate efforts to detect clear climate signals....

Effects of global climate change on biodiversity in forests of the Southern United States

Treesearch

Margaret S. Devall; Bernard R. Parresol

1998-01-01

Climate has not been stable in the past. Fluctuations of pine (Pinus) pollen in a 50,000-year sequence from Lake Tulane in Florida indicate that major vegetation shifts occurred during the last glacial cycle. Phases of pollen dominated by pine (indicating a wet climate) were interspersed with periods with plentiful oak (Quercus), ragweed, and marsh elder (...

Multiple abiotic stimuli are integrated in the regulation of rice gene expression under field conditions.

PubMed

Plessis, Anne; Hafemeister, Christoph; Wilkins, Olivia; Gonzaga, Zennia Jean; Meyer, Rachel Sarah; Pires, Inês; Müller, Christian; Septiningsih, Endang M; Bonneau, Richard; Purugganan, Michael

2015-11-26

Plants rely on transcriptional dynamics to respond to multiple climatic fluctuations and contexts in nature. We analyzed the genome-wide gene expression patterns of rice (Oryza sativa) growing in rainfed and irrigated fields during two distinct tropical seasons and determined simple linear models that relate transcriptomic variation to climatic fluctuations. These models combine multiple environmental parameters to account for patterns of expression in the field of co-expressed gene clusters. We examined the similarities of our environmental models between tropical and temperate field conditions, using previously published data. We found that field type and macroclimate had broad impacts on transcriptional responses to environmental fluctuations, especially for genes involved in photosynthesis and development. Nevertheless, variation in solar radiation and temperature at the timescale of hours had reproducible effects across environmental contexts. These results provide a basis for broad-based predictive modeling of plant gene expression in the field.

Climate variability has a stabilizing effect on the coexistence of prairie grasses

PubMed Central

Adler, Peter B.; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Kyriakidis, Phaedon C.; Guan, Qingfeng; Levine, Jonathan M.

2006-01-01

How expected increases in climate variability will affect species diversity depends on the role of such variability in regulating the coexistence of competing species. Despite theory linking temporal environmental fluctuations with the maintenance of diversity, the importance of climate variability for stabilizing coexistence remains unknown because of a lack of appropriate long-term observations. Here, we analyze three decades of demographic data from a Kansas prairie to demonstrate that interannual climate variability promotes the coexistence of three common grass species. Specifically, we show that (i) the dynamics of the three species satisfy all requirements of “storage effect” theory based on recruitment variability with overlapping generations, (ii) climate variables are correlated with interannual variation in species performance, and (iii) temporal variability increases low-density growth rates, buffering these species against competitive exclusion. Given that environmental fluctuations are ubiquitous in natural systems, our results suggest that coexistence based on the storage effect may be underappreciated and could provide an important alternative to recent neutral theories of diversity. Field evidence for positive effects of variability on coexistence also emphasizes the need to consider changes in both climate means and variances when forecasting the effects of global change on species diversity. PMID:16908862

'Tales of Symphonia': extinction dynamics in response to past climate change in Madagascan rainforests.

PubMed

Virah-Sawmy, Malika; Bonsall, Michael B; Willis, Katherine J

2009-12-23

Madagascar's rainforests are among the most biodiverse in the world. Understanding the population dynamics of important species within these forests in response to past climatic variability provides valuable insight into current and future species composition. Here, we use a population-level approach to analyse palaeoecological records over the last 5300 years to understand how populations of Symphonia cf. verrucosa became locally extinct in some rainforest fragments along the southeast coast of Madagascar in response to rapid climate change, yet persisted in others. Our results indicate that regional (climate) variability contributed to synchronous decline of S. cf. verrucosa populations in these forests. Superimposed on regional fluctuations were local processes that could have contributed or mitigated extinction. Specifically, in the forest with low soil nutrients, population model predictions indicated that there was coexistence between S. cf. verrucosa and Erica spp., but in the nutrient-rich forest, interspecific effects between Symphonia and Erica spp. may have pushed Symphonia to extinction at the peak of climatic change. We also demonstrate that Symphonia is a good indicator of a threshold event, exhibiting erratic fluctuations prior to and long after the critical climatic point has passed.

Fuzzy-driven energy storage system for mitigating voltage unbalance factor on distribution network with photovoltaic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Jianhui; Lim, Yun Seng; Morris, Stella; Morris, Ezra; Chua, Kein Huat

2017-04-01

The amount of small-scaled renewable energy sources is anticipated to increase on the low-voltage distribution networks for the improvement of energy efficiency and reduction of greenhouse gas emission. The growth of the PV systems on the low-voltage distribution networks can create voltage unbalance, voltage rise, and reverse-power flow. Usually these issues happen with little fluctuation. However, it tends to fluctuate severely as Malaysia is a region with low clear sky index. A large amount of clouds often passes over the country, hence making the solar irradiance to be highly scattered. Therefore, the PV power output fluctuates substantially. These issues can lead to the malfunction of the electronic based equipment, reduction in the network efficiency and improper operation of the power protection system. At the current practice, the amount of PV system installed on the distribution network is constraint by the utility company. As a result, this can limit the reduction of carbon footprint. Therefore, energy storage system is proposed as a solution for these power quality issues. To ensure an effective operation of the distribution network with PV system, a fuzzy control system is developed and implemented to govern the operation of an energy storage system. The fuzzy driven energy storage system is able to mitigate the fluctuating voltage rise and voltage unbalance on the electrical grid by actively manipulates the flow of real power between the grid and the batteries. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed fuzzy driven energy storage system, an experimental network integrated with 7.2kWp PV system was setup. Several case studies are performed to evaluate the response of the proposed solution to mitigate voltage rises, voltage unbalance and reduce the amount of reverse power flow under highly intermittent PV power output.

TESTING THE PROPAGATING FLUCTUATIONS MODEL WITH A LONG, GLOBAL ACCRETION DISK SIMULATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hogg, J Drew; Reynolds, Christopher S.

2016-07-20

The broadband variability of many accreting systems displays characteristic structures; log-normal flux distributions, root-mean square (rms)-flux relations, and long inter-band lags. These characteristics are usually interpreted as inward propagating fluctuations of the mass accretion rate in an accretion disk driven by stochasticity of the angular momentum transport mechanism. We present the first analysis of propagating fluctuations in a long-duration, high-resolution, global three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of a geometrically thin ( h / r ≈ 0.1) accretion disk around a black hole. While the dynamical-timescale turbulent fluctuations in the Maxwell stresses are too rapid to drive radially coherent fluctuations in themore » accretion rate, we find that the low-frequency quasi-periodic dynamo action introduces low-frequency fluctuations in the Maxwell stresses, which then drive the propagating fluctuations. Examining both the mass accretion rate and emission proxies, we recover log-normality, linear rms-flux relations, and radial coherence that would produce inter-band lags. Hence, we successfully relate and connect the phenomenology of propagating fluctuations to modern MHD accretion disk theory.« less

Collisionless Isotropization of the Solar-Wind Protons by Compressive Fluctuations and Plasma Instabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verscharen, D.; Chandran, B. D. G.; Klein, K. G.; Quataert, E.

2016-12-01

Compressive fluctuations are a minor yet significant component of astrophysical plasma turbulence. In the solar wind, long-wavelength compressive slow-mode fluctuations lead to changes in β∥p ≡ 8πnpkBT∥p/B2 and in Rp ≡ T⊥p/T∥p, where T⊥p and T∥p are the perpendicular and parallel temperatures of the protons, B is the magnetic field strength, and np is the proton density. If the amplitude of the compressive fluctuations is large enough, Rp crosses one or more instability thresholds for anisotropy-driven micro-instabilities. The enhanced field fluctuations from these micro-instabilities scatter the protons so as to reduce the anisotropy of the pressure tensor, driving the average value of Rp away from the marginal stability boundary until the fluctuating value of Rp stops crossing the boundary. We model this "fluctuating-anisotropy effect" using linear Vlasov-Maxwell theory to describe the large-scale compressive fluctuations. We show that this effect can explain why, in the nearly collisionless solar wind, the average value of Rp is close to unity.

Diffusion of GPI-anchored proteins is influenced by the activity of dynamic cortical actin

PubMed Central

Saha, Suvrajit; Lee, Il-Hyung; Polley, Anirban; Groves, Jay T.; Rao, Madan; Mayor, Satyajit

2015-01-01

Molecular diffusion at the surface of living cells is believed to be predominantly driven by thermal kicks. However, there is growing evidence that certain cell surface molecules are driven by the fluctuating dynamics of cortical cytoskeleton. Using fluorescence correlation spectroscopy, we measure the diffusion coefficient of a variety of cell surface molecules over a temperature range of 24–37°C. Exogenously incorporated fluorescent lipids with short acyl chains exhibit the expected increase of diffusion coefficient over this temperature range. In contrast, we find that GPI-anchored proteins exhibit temperature-independent diffusion over this range and revert to temperature-dependent diffusion on cell membrane blebs, in cells depleted of cholesterol, and upon acute perturbation of actin dynamics and myosin activity. A model transmembrane protein with a cytosolic actin-binding domain also exhibits the temperature-independent behavior, directly implicating the role of cortical actin. We show that diffusion of GPI-anchored proteins also becomes temperature dependent when the filamentous dynamic actin nucleator formin is inhibited. However, changes in cortical actin mesh size or perturbation of branched actin nucleator Arp2/3 do not affect this behavior. Thus cell surface diffusion of GPI-anchored proteins and transmembrane proteins that associate with actin is driven by active fluctuations of dynamic cortical actin filaments in addition to thermal fluctuations, consistent with expectations from an “active actin-membrane composite” cell surface. PMID:26378258

Fluctuating chemohydrodynamics and the stochastic motion of self-diffusiophoretic particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaspard, Pierre; Kapral, Raymond

2018-04-01

The propulsion of active particles by self-diffusiophoresis is driven by asymmetric catalytic reactions on the particle surface that generate a mechanochemical coupling between the fluid velocity and the concentration fields of fuel and product in the surrounding solution. Because of thermal and molecular fluctuations in the solution, the motion of micrometric or submicrometric active particles is stochastic. Coupled Langevin equations describing the translation, rotation, and reaction of such active particles are deduced from fluctuating chemohydrodynamics and fluctuating boundary conditions at the interface between the fluid and the particle. These equations are consistent with microreversibility and the Onsager-Casimir reciprocal relations between affinities and currents and provide a thermodynamically consistent basis for the investigation of the dynamics of active particles propelled by diffusiophoretic mechanisms.

Response to Comment on "Satellites reveal contrasting responses of regional climate to the widespread greening of Earth".

PubMed

Forzieri, Giovanni; Alkama, Ramdane; Miralles, Diego G; Cescatti, Alessandro

2018-06-15

Li et al contest the idea that vegetation greening has contributed to boreal warming and argue that the sensitivity of temperature to leaf area index (LAI) is instead likely driven by the climate impact on vegetation. We provide additional evidence that the LAI-climate interplay is indeed largely driven by the vegetation impact on temperature and not vice versa, thus corroborating our original conclusions. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Shifts in deep-sea community structure linked to climate and food supply.

PubMed

Ruhl, Henry A; Smith, Kenneth L

2004-07-23

A major change in the community structure of the dominant epibenthic megafauna was observed at 4100 meters depth in the northeast Pacific and was synchronous to a major El Niño/La Niña event that occurred between 1997 and 1999. Photographic abundance estimates of epibenthic megafauna from 1989 to 2002 show that two taxa decreased in abundance after 1998 by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude, whereas several other species increased in abundance by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude. These faunal changes are correlated to climate fluctuations dominated by El Niño/La Niña. Megafauna even in remote marine areas appear to be affected by contemporary climatic fluctuations. Such faunal changes highlight the importance of an adequate temporal perspective in describing biodiversity, ecology, and anthropogenic impacts in deep-sea communities.

A review on microbial lipids as a potential biofuel.

PubMed

Shields-Menard, Sara A; Amirsadeghi, Marta; French, W Todd; Boopathy, Raj

2018-07-01

Energy security, environmental concerns, and unstable oil prices have been the driving trifecta of demand for alternative fuels in the United States. The United States' dependence on energy resources, often from unstable oil-producing countries has created political insecurities and concerns. As we try to gain energy security, unconventional oil becomes more common, flooding the market, and causing the major downshift of the usual unstable oil prices. Meanwhile, consumption of fossil fuels and the consequent CO 2 emissions have driven disruptions in the Earth's atmosphere and are recognized to be responsible for global climate change. While the significance of each of these three factors may fluctuate with global politics or new technologies, transportation energy will remain the prominent focus of multi-disciplined research. Bioenergy future depends on the price of oil. Current energy policy of the United States heavily favors petroleum industry. In this review, the current trend in microbial lipids as a potential biofuel is discussed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent land-use/land-cover change in the Central California Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soulard, Christopher E.; Wilson, Tamara S.

2013-01-01

Open access to Landsat satellite data has enabled annual analyses of modern land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) for the Central California Valley ecoregion between 2005 and 2010. Our annual LULCC estimates capture landscape-level responses to water policy changes, climate, and economic instability. From 2005 to 2010, agriculture in the region fluctuated along with regulatory-driven changes in water allocation as well as persistent drought conditions. Grasslands and shrublands declined, while developed lands increased in former agricultural and grassland/shrublands. Development rates stagnated in 2007, coinciding with the onset of the historic foreclosure crisis in California and the global economic downturn. We utilized annual LULCC estimates to generate interval-based LULCC estimates (2000–2005 and 2005–2010) and extend existing 27 year interval-based land change monitoring through 2010. Resulting change data provides insights into the drivers of landscape change in the Central California Valley ecoregion and represents the first, continuous, 37 year mapping effort of its kind.

Clay mineral diversity and abundance in sedimentary rocks of Gale crater, Mars

PubMed Central

Chipera, Steve J.; Hazen, Robert M.; Horgan, Briony; Hogancamp, Joanna V.; Mangold, Nicolas; Morookian, John Michael; Morris, Richard V.; Vaniman, David T.; Yen, Albert S.

2018-01-01

Clay minerals provide indicators of the evolution of aqueous conditions and possible habitats for life on ancient Mars. Analyses by the Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity show that ~3.5–billion year (Ga) fluvio-lacustrine mudstones in Gale crater contain up to ~28 weight % (wt %) clay minerals. We demonstrate that the species of clay minerals deduced from x-ray diffraction and evolved gas analysis show a strong paleoenvironmental dependency. While perennial lake mudstones are characterized by Fe-saponite, we find that stratigraphic intervals associated with episodic lake drying contain Al-rich, Fe3+-bearing dioctahedral smectite, with minor (3 wt %) quantities of ferripyrophyllite, interpreted as wind-blown detritus, found in candidate aeolian deposits. Our results suggest that dioctahedral smectite formed via near-surface chemical weathering driven by fluctuations in lake level and atmospheric infiltration, a process leading to the redistribution of nutrients and potentially influencing the cycling of gases that help regulate climate. PMID:29881776

Poleward energy transport: is the standard definition physically relevant at all time scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Minyi; Czaja, Arnaud; Graversen, Rune; Tailleux, Remi

2018-03-01

Poleward energy transport in the atmosphere and oceans constitutes an important branch of the global energy budget, and its role in the climate system has been the subject of many studies. In the atmosphere, the transport is affected by "eddies" and large scale meridional cells, both with zero net mass transport across latitude circles, but also partly by processes associated with a net transport of mass across latitude circles. The latter must cease to operate in steady state, but they may be significant when time variability of the heat budget is considered. Indeed, examination of reanalysis data on short (daily to monthly) timescales shows that mass variations on these timescales result in surprisingly large fluctuations (in excess of 10^{15} W = 1 PW) in the poleward heat transport. These fluctuations are referred to as "extensive", for they primarily alter the mass integrated energy of the region considered, but not its averaged value. It is suggested that extensive fluctuations mask more meaningful climate signals present in the heat transport variability on monthly and interannual timescales, and a new formulation is proposed to isolate the latter. This new formulation is applied successfully to reanalysis data and climate model simulations.

Poleward Energy Transport: Is the Standard Definition Physically Relevant at All Time Scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, M.; Czaja, A.; Graversen, R.; Tailleux, R.

2017-12-01

Poleward energy transport in the atmosphere and oceans constitutes an important branch of the global energy budget, and its role in the climate system has been the subject of many studies. In the atmosphere, the transport is affected by ''eddies'' and large scale meridional cells, both with zero net mass transport across latitude circles, but also partly by processes associated with a net transport of mass across latitude circles. The latter must cease to operate in steady state, but they may be significant when time variability of the heat budget is considered. Indeed, examination of reanalysis data on short (daily to monthly) timescales shows that mass variations on these timescales result in surprisingly large fluctuations (in excess of 1015W = 1PW) in the poleward heat transport. These fluctuations are referred to as ''extensive'', for they primarily alter the mass integrated energy of the region considered, but not its averaged value. It is suggested that extensive fluctuations mask more meaningful climate signals present in the heat transport variability, and a new formulation is proposed to isolate the latter. This new formulation is applied successfully to reanalysis data and climate model simulations.

Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions – Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras

PubMed Central

Liebergesell, Mario; Stahl, Ulrike; Freiberg, Martin; Welk, Erik; Kattge, Jens; Cornelissen, J. Hans C.; Peñuelas, Josep

2016-01-01

Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis) and the functional richness index (FRic). Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning. PMID:26848836

Nonequilibrium Fluctuations and Enhanced Diffusion of a Driven Particle in a Dense Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Illien, Pierre; Bénichou, Olivier; Oshanin, Gleb; Sarracino, Alessandro; Voituriez, Raphaël

2018-05-01

We study the diffusion of a tracer particle driven out of equilibrium by an external force and traveling in a dense environment of arbitrary density. The system evolves on a discrete lattice and its stochastic dynamics is described by a master equation. Relying on a decoupling approximation that goes beyond the naive mean-field treatment of the problem, we calculate the fluctuations of the position of the tracer around its mean value on a lattice of arbitrary dimension, and with different boundary conditions. We reveal intrinsically nonequilibrium effects, such as enhanced diffusivity of the tracer induced by both the crowding interactions and the external driving. We finally consider the high-density and low-density limits of the model and show that our approximation scheme becomes exact in these limits.

A global model of malaria climate sensitivity: comparing malaria response to historic climate data based on simulation and officially reported malaria incidence.

PubMed

Edlund, Stefan; Davis, Matthew; Douglas, Judith V; Kershenbaum, Arik; Waraporn, Narongrit; Lessler, Justin; Kaufman, James H

2012-09-18

The role of the Anopheles vector in malaria transmission and the effect of climate on Anopheles populations are well established. Models of the impact of climate change on the global malaria burden now have access to high-resolution climate data, but malaria surveillance data tends to be less precise, making model calibration problematic. Measurement of malaria response to fluctuations in climate variables offers a way to address these difficulties. Given the demonstrated sensitivity of malaria transmission to vector capacity, this work tests response functions to fluctuations in land surface temperature and precipitation. This study of regional sensitivity of malaria incidence to year-to-year climate variations used an extended Macdonald Ross compartmental disease model (to compute malaria incidence) built on top of a global Anopheles vector capacity model (based on 10 years of satellite climate data). The predicted incidence was compared with estimates from the World Health Organization and the Malaria Atlas. The models and denominator data used are freely available through the Eclipse Foundation's Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeller (STEM). Although the absolute scale factor relating reported malaria to absolute incidence is uncertain, there is a positive correlation between predicted and reported year-to-year variation in malaria burden with an averaged root mean square (RMS) error of 25% comparing normalized incidence across 86 countries. Based on this, the proposed measure of sensitivity of malaria to variations in climate variables indicates locations where malaria is most likely to increase or decrease in response to specific climate factors. Bootstrapping measures the increased uncertainty in predicting malaria sensitivity when reporting is restricted to national level and an annual basis. Results indicate a potential 20x improvement in accuracy if data were available at the level ISO 3166-2 national subdivisions and with monthly time sampling. The high spatial resolution possible with state-of-the-art numerical models can identify regions most likely to require intervention due to climate changes. Higher-resolution surveillance data can provide a better understanding of how climate fluctuations affect malaria incidence and improve predictions. An open-source modelling framework, such as STEM, can be a valuable tool for the scientific community and provide a collaborative platform for developing such models.

A variable-instar climate-driven individual beetle-based phenology model for the invasive Asian longhorned beetle (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae)

Treesearch

R. Talbot Trotter, III; Melody A. Keena

2016-01-01

Efforts to manage and eradicate invasive species can benefit from an improved understanding of the physiology, biology, and behavior of the target species, and ongoing efforts to eradicate the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis Motschulsky) highlight the roles this information may play. Here, we present a climate-driven phenology...

Expressions of climate perturbations in western Ugandan crater lake sediment records during the last 1000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, K.; Ryves, D. B.; Anderson, N. J.; Bryant, C. L.; Tyler, J. J.

2014-08-01

Equatorial East Africa has a complex regional patchwork of climate regimes, sensitive to climate fluctuations over a variety of temporal and spatial scales during the late Holocene. Understanding how these changes are recorded in and interpreted from biological and geochemical proxies in lake sedimentary records remains a key challenge to answering fundamental questions regarding the nature, spatial extent and synchroneity of climatic changes seen in East African palaeo-records. Using a paired lake approach, where neighbouring lakes share the same geology, climate and landscape, it might be expected that the systems will respond similarly to external climate forcing. Sediment cores from two crater lakes in western Uganda spanning the last ~1000 years were examined to assess diatom community responses to late Holocene climate and environmental changes, and to test responses to multiple drivers using redundancy analysis (RDA). These archives provide annual to sub-decadal records of environmental change. Lakes Nyamogusingiri and Kyasanduka appear to operate as independent systems in their recording of a similar hydrological response signal via distinct diatom records. However, whilst their fossil diatom records demonstrate an individualistic, indirect response to external (e.g. climatic) drivers, the inferred lake levels show similar overall trends and reflect the broader patterns observed in Uganda and across East Africa. The lakes appear to be sensitive to large-scale climatic perturbations, with evidence of a dry Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ca. AD 1000-1200). The diatom record from Lake Nyamogusingiri suggests a drying climate during the main phase of the Little Ice Age (LIA) (ca. AD 1600-1800), whereas the diatom response from the shallower Lake Kyasanduka is more complex (with groundwater likely playing a key role), and may be driven more by changes in silica and other nutrients, rather than by lake level. The sensitivity of these two Ugandan lakes to regional climate drivers breaks down in ca. AD 1800, when major changes in the ecosystems appear to be a response to increasing cultural impacts within the lake catchments, although both proxy records appear to respond to the drought recorded across East Africa in the mid-20th century. The data highlight the complexity of diatom community responses to external drivers (climate or cultural), even in neighbouring, shallow freshwater lakes. This research also illustrates the importance of, and the need to move towards, a multi-lake, multi-proxy landscape approach to understanding regional hydrological change which will allow for rigorous testing of climate reconstructions, climate forcing and ecosystem response models.

Vegetation-mediated Climate Impacts on Historical and Future Ozone Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, A. P. K.; Fu, Y.; Mickley, L. J.; Heald, C. L.; Wu, S.

2014-12-01

Changes in climate, natural vegetation and human land use are expected to significantly influence air quality in the coming century. These changes and their interactions have important ramifications for the effectiveness of air pollution control strategies. In a series of studies, we use a one-way coupled modeling framework (GEOS-Chem driven by different combinations of historical and future meteorological, land cover and emission data) to investigate the effects of climate-vegetation changes on global and East Asian ozone air quality from 30 years ago to 40 years into the future. We find that future climate and climate-driven vegetation changes combine to increase summertime ozone by 2-6 ppbv in populous regions of the US, Europe, East Asia and South Asia by year 2050, but including the interaction between CO2 and biogenic isoprene emission reduces the climate impacts by more than half. Land use change such as cropland expansion has the potential to either mostly offset the climate-driven ozone increases (e.g., in the US and Europe), or greatly increase ozone (e.g., in Southeast Asia). The projected climate-vegetation effects in East Asia are particularly uncertain, reflecting a less understood ozone production regime. We thus further study how East Asian ozone air quality has evolved since the early 1980s in response to climate, vegetation and emission changes to shed light on its likely future course. We find that warming alone has led to a substantial increase in summertime ozone in populous regions by 1-4 ppbv. Despite significant cropland expansion and urbanization, increased summertime leafiness of vegetation in response to warming and CO2 fertilization has reduced ozone by 1-2 ppbv, driven by enhanced ozone deposition dominating over elevated biogenic emission and partially offsetting the warming effect. The historical role of CO2-isoprene interaction in East Asia, however, remains highly uncertain. Our findings demonstrate the important roles of land cover and vegetation in modulating climate-chemistry interactions, and highlight aspects that warrant further investigation.

Climate change and water resources in northern Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menzel, Lucas; Törnros, Tobias; Marberg, Ines

2014-05-01

Mongolia is facing a large number of water-related problems, such as adverse natural conditions, increasing water withdrawals, scarce environmental information and a lack of structures which control the appropriate distribution and protection of water. Since 2010, we conduct a monitoring programme in northern Mongolia which aims at better understanding the climatic characteristics, the freshwater generating processes as well as the impact of environmental change on the water resources in a semi-arid environment. Focus is on the meso-scaled Kharaa catchment (14,500 km²) north of Ulaanbaatar which includes the transition belt between the extended steppe ecotone, the Siberian taiga as well as the alpine tundra of the Khentii Mountains which act as the major freshwater generating area of the region. Based on the information gained during our field studies, we successfully applied the hydrological HBV-D model to simulate the discharge at the outlet of the basin and for a number of sub-basins. We could show that runoff within the study region is strongly influenced by the high climate variability. For example, the observed runoff in the basin shows a sudden decrease in the middle 1990s. At the same time, precipitation is decreasing and temperature is strongly increasing. The study is based on data from only six meteorological stations. Therefore, output from Global Climate Models has been considered as another potential data source. Accordingly, the HBV-D model was driven with WATCH forcing data for the years 1901-2000. This made it possible to simulate the runoff for years where no runoff observations exist. The results show that mean annual air temperature (MAT) has been strongly rising during the last 100 years (for example, between 1940 and 2001 MAT increased by 1.7°C) while precipitation shows strong, long-term oscillations. Accordingly, simulated mean annual discharge shows a high temporal variability with high fluctuations during the first half of the 20th century when air temperature was relatively low. Furthermore, in order to address the hydrological impacts of future climate change, the HBV-D model was applied on WATCH scenario data for the years 2001-2100, including the output from three GCMs driven by two IPCC emission scenarios. Results indicate that the clear increase of MAT is projected to continue over the coming 100 years while mean annual precipitation appears to slightly increase. However, simulated discharge shows a decrease, evidently as an effect of increasing evapotranspiration and possibly changing precipitation characteristics.

Land use compounds habitat losses under projected climate change in a threatened California ecosystem.

PubMed

Riordan, Erin Coulter; Rundel, Philip W

2014-01-01

Given the rapidly growing human population in mediterranean-climate systems, land use may pose a more immediate threat to biodiversity than climate change this century, yet few studies address the relative future impacts of both drivers. We assess spatial and temporal patterns of projected 21(st) century land use and climate change on California sage scrub (CSS), a plant association of considerable diversity and threatened status in the mediterranean-climate California Floristic Province. Using a species distribution modeling approach combined with spatially-explicit land use projections, we model habitat loss for 20 dominant shrub species under unlimited and no dispersal scenarios at two time intervals (early and late century) in two ecoregions in California (Central Coast and South Coast). Overall, projected climate change impacts were highly variable across CSS species and heavily dependent on dispersal assumptions. Projected anthropogenic land use drove greater relative habitat losses compared to projected climate change in many species. This pattern was only significant under assumptions of unlimited dispersal, however, where considerable climate-driven habitat gains offset some concurrent climate-driven habitat losses. Additionally, some of the habitat gained with projected climate change overlapped with projected land use. Most species showed potential northern habitat expansion and southern habitat contraction due to projected climate change, resulting in sharply contrasting patterns of impact between Central and South Coast Ecoregions. In the Central Coast, dispersal could play an important role moderating losses from both climate change and land use. In contrast, high geographic overlap in habitat losses driven by projected climate change and projected land use in the South Coast underscores the potential for compounding negative impacts of both drivers. Limiting habitat conversion may be a broadly beneficial strategy under climate change. We emphasize the importance of addressing both drivers in conservation and resource management planning.

Stream temperature variability: why it matters to salmon

Treesearch

E. Ashley Steel; Brian Beckman; Marie Oliver

2014-01-01

Salmon evolved in natural river systems, where temperatures fluctuate daily, weekly, seasonally, and all along a stream’s path—from the mountains to the sea. Climate change and human activities alter this natural variability. Dams, for example, tend to reduce thermal fluctuations.Currently, scientists gauge habitat suitability for aquatic species by...

Paleoclimate and bubonic plague: a forewarning of future risk?

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J

2010-08-27

Pandemics of bubonic plague have occurred in Eurasia since the sixth century AD. Climatic variations in Central Asia affect the population size and activity of the plague bacterium's reservoir rodent species, influencing the probability of human infection. Using innovative time-series analysis of surrogate climate records spanning 1,500 years, a study in BMC Biology concludes that climatic fluctuations may have influenced these pandemics. This has potential implications for health risks from future climate change.

Estuary-ocean connectivity: fast physics, slow biology.

PubMed

Raimonet, Mélanie; Cloern, James E

2017-06-01

Estuaries are connected to both land and ocean so their physical, chemical, and biological dynamics are influenced by climate patterns over watersheds and ocean basins. We explored climate-driven oceanic variability as a source of estuarine variability by comparing monthly time series of temperature and chlorophyll-a inside San Francisco Bay with those in adjacent shelf waters of the California Current System (CCS) that are strongly responsive to wind-driven upwelling. Monthly temperature fluctuations inside and outside the Bay were synchronous, but their correlations weakened with distance from the ocean. These results illustrate how variability of coastal water temperature (and associated properties such as nitrate and oxygen) propagates into estuaries through fast water exchanges that dissipate along the estuary. Unexpectedly, there was no correlation between monthly chlorophyll-a variability inside and outside the Bay. However, at the annual scale Bay chlorophyll-a was significantly correlated with the Spring Transition Index (STI) that sets biological production supporting fish recruitment in the CCS. Wind forcing of the CCS shifted in the late 1990s when the STI advanced 40 days. This shift was followed, with lags of 1-3 years, by 3- to 19-fold increased abundances of five ocean-produced demersal fish and crustaceans and 2.5-fold increase of summer chlorophyll-a in the Bay. These changes reflect a slow biological process of estuary-ocean connectivity operating through the immigration of fish and crustaceans that prey on bivalves, reduce their grazing pressure, and allow phytoplankton biomass to build. We identified clear signals of climate-mediated oceanic variability in this estuary and discovered that the response patterns vary with the process of connectivity and the timescale of ocean variability. This result has important implications for managing nutrient inputs to estuaries connected to upwelling systems, and for assessing their responses to changing patterns of upwelling timing and intensity as the planet continues to warm. © 2016 Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

15 CFR 917.21 - National needs and problems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... and problems with respect to ocean and coastal resources:global and regional climate and primary... global sea-level change and determine the impact of this change on coastal areas. (3) Define the... relationship to fluctuations in global and regional climate, primary productivity, and fisheries production. (4...

15 CFR 917.21 - National needs and problems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... and problems with respect to ocean and coastal resources:global and regional climate and primary... global sea-level change and determine the impact of this change on coastal areas. (3) Define the... relationship to fluctuations in global and regional climate, primary productivity, and fisheries production. (4...

15 CFR 917.21 - National needs and problems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... and problems with respect to ocean and coastal resources:global and regional climate and primary... global sea-level change and determine the impact of this change on coastal areas. (3) Define the... relationship to fluctuations in global and regional climate, primary productivity, and fisheries production. (4...

15 CFR 917.21 - National needs and problems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... and problems with respect to ocean and coastal resources:global and regional climate and primary... global sea-level change and determine the impact of this change on coastal areas. (3) Define the... relationship to fluctuations in global and regional climate, primary productivity, and fisheries production. (4...

Noble Gas Proxy Evidence Of Holocene Climate Fluctuations In The Elwha Watershed, Olympic Mountains, Washington

EPA Science Inventory

Paleotempertures retrieved from the groundwater archives in the largest watershed (≈800 km2) in the Olympic Mountains suggest asynchronous Olympic Peninsula climate responses during the Everson interstade period after the last continental glacial maximum. Dissolved noble gases fr...

Fluctuation theorem for entropy production during effusion of an ideal gas with momentum transfer.

PubMed

Wood, Kevin; Van den Broeck, C; Kawai, R; Lindenberg, Katja

2007-06-01

We derive an exact expression for entropy production during effusion of an ideal gas driven by momentum transfer in addition to energy and particle flux. Following the treatment in Cleuren [Phys. Rev. E 74, 021117 (2006)], we construct a master equation formulation of the process and explicitly verify the thermodynamic fluctuation theorem, thereby directly exhibiting its extended applicability to particle flows and hence to hydrodynamic systems.

Fully Quantum Fluctuation Theorems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Åberg, Johan

2018-02-01

Systems that are driven out of thermal equilibrium typically dissipate random quantities of energy on microscopic scales. Crooks fluctuation theorem relates the distribution of these random work costs to the corresponding distribution for the reverse process. By an analysis that explicitly incorporates the energy reservoir that donates the energy and the control system that implements the dynamic, we obtain a quantum generalization of Crooks theorem that not only includes the energy changes in the reservoir but also the full description of its evolution, including coherences. Moreover, this approach opens up the possibility for generalizations of the concept of fluctuation relations. Here, we introduce "conditional" fluctuation relations that are applicable to nonequilibrium systems, as well as approximate fluctuation relations that allow for the analysis of autonomous evolution generated by global time-independent Hamiltonians. We furthermore extend these notions to Markovian master equations, implicitly modeling the influence of the heat bath.

Spectra of turbulent static pressure fluctuations in jet mixing layers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, B. G.; Adrian, R. J.; Nithianandan, C. K.; Planchon, H. P., Jr.

1977-01-01

Spectral similarity laws are derived for the power spectra of turbulent static pressure fluctuations by application of dimensional analysis in the limit of large turbulent Reynolds number. The theory predicts that pressure spectra are generated by three distinct types of interaction in the velocity fields: a fourth order interaction between fluctuating velocities, an interaction between the first order mean shear and the third order velocity fluctuations, and an interaction between the second order mean shear rate and the second order fluctuating velocity. Measurements of one-dimensional power spectra of the turbulent static pressure fluctuations in the driven mixing layer of a subsonic, circular jet are presented, and the spectra are examined for evidence of spectral similarity. Spectral similarity is found for the low wavenumber range when the large scale flow on the centerline of the mixing layer is self-preserving. The data are also consistent with the existence of universal inertial subranges for the spectra of each interaction mode.

Density Fluctuations in the Solar Wind Driven by Alfvén Wave Parametric Decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowen, Trevor A.; Badman, Samuel; Hellinger, Petr; Bale, Stuart D.

2018-02-01

Measurements and simulations of inertial compressive turbulence in the solar wind are characterized by anti-correlated magnetic fluctuations parallel to the mean field and density structures. This signature has been interpreted as observational evidence for non-propagating pressure balanced structures, kinetic ion-acoustic waves, as well as the MHD slow-mode. Given the high damping rates of parallel propagating compressive fluctuations, their ubiquity in satellite observations is surprising and suggestive of a local driving process. One possible candidate for the generation of compressive fluctuations in the solar wind is the Alfvén wave parametric instability. Here, we test the parametric decay process as a source of compressive waves in the solar wind by comparing the collisionless damping rates of compressive fluctuations with growth rates of the parametric decay instability daughter waves. Our results suggest that generation of compressive waves through parametric decay is overdamped at 1 au, but that the presence of slow-mode-like density fluctuations is correlated with the parametric decay of Alfvén waves.

Properties of density and magnetic fluctuations occurring in density striations in the new LAPD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maggs, J. E.; Morales, G. J.

2001-10-01

Previous studies of density striations (long, narrow magnetic-field-aligned density depletions) in the LAPD plasma device at UCLA revealed an eigenmode structure to fluctuations driven by the pressure gradient in the striation wall (Maggs and Morales, Phys. Plasmas, 4, 1997). The nature of these fluctuations depended on the plasma beta external to the striation, with shear Alfvén wave turbulence developing at betas less than the mass ratio and drift-Alfvén waves at betas above the mass ratio. These fluctuations were found to have a direct connection to turbulence observed at the plasma edge. The new LAPD is 18 meters in length with a background field up to twice previously attainable values. We report on the properties of fluctuations associated with density striations in the new device over a wider range of beta, and compare them to previous results. The behavior of fluctuations in density striations created in flared-field and magnetic-mirror geometries will also be presented. Research sponsored by ONR and NSF

Tropical specialist vs. climate generalist: Diversification and demographic history of sister species of Carlia skinks from northwestern Australia.

PubMed

Afonso Silva, Ana C; Bragg, Jason G; Potter, Sally; Fernandes, Carlos; Coelho, Maria Manuela; Moritz, Craig

2017-08-01

Species endemic to the tropical regions are expected to be vulnerable to future climate change due in part to their relatively narrow climatic niches. In addition, these species are more likely to have responded strongly to past climatic change, and this can be explored through phylogeographic analyses. To test the hypothesis that tropical specialists are more sensitive to climate change than climate generalists, we generated and analyse sequence data from mtDNA and ~2500 exons to compare scales of historical persistence and population fluctuation in two sister species of Australian rainbow skinks: the tropical specialist Carlia johnstonei and the climate generalist C. triacantha. We expect the tropical specialist species to have deeper and finer-scale phylogeographic structure and stronger demographic fluctuations relative to the closely related climate generalist species, which should have had more stable populations through periods of harsh climate in the late Quaternary. Within C. johnstonei, we find that some populations from the northern Kimberley islands are highly divergent from mainland populations. In C. triacantha, one major clade occurs across the deserts and into the mesic Top End, and another occurs primarily in the Kimberley with scattered records eastwards. Where their ranges overlap in the Kimberley, both mitochondrial DNA and nuclear DNA suggest stronger phylogeographic structure and range expansion within the tropical specialist, whereas the climate generalist has minimal structuring and no evidence of recent past range expansion. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that tropical specialists are more sensitive to past climatic change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Sensitivity of Earth's Climate History To Changes In The Rates of Biological And Geological Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waltham, D.

2014-12-01

The faint young Sun paradox (early Earth had surface liquid water despite solar luminosity 70% of the modern value) implies that our planet's albedo has increased through time and/or greenhouse warming has fallen. The obvious explanation is that negative feedback processes stabilized temperatures. However, the limited temperature data available does not exhibit the expected residual temperature rise and, at least for the Phanerozoic, estimates of climate sensitivity exceed the Planck sensitivity (the zero net-feedback value). The alternate explanation is that biological and geological evolution have tended to cool Earth through time hence countering solar-driven warming. The coincidence that Earth-evolution has roughly cancelled Solar-evolution can then be explained as an emergent property of a complex system (the Gaia hypothesis) or the result of the unavoidable observational bias that Earth's climate history must be compatible with our existence (the anthropic principle). Here, I use a simple climate model to investigate the sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in the rate of Earth-evolution. Earth-evolution is represented by an effective emissivity which has an intrinsic variation through time (due to continental growth, the evolution of cyanobacteria, orbital fluctuations etc) plus a linear feedback term which enhances emissivity variations. An important feature of this model is a predicted maximum in the radiated-flux versus temperature function. If the increasing solar flux through time had exceeded this value then runaway warming would have occurred. For the best-guess temperature history and climate sensitivity, the Earth has always been within a few percent of this maximum. There is no obvious Gaian explanation for this flux-coincidence but the anthropic principle naturally explains it: If the rate of biological/geological evolution is naturally slow then Earth is a fortunate outlier which evolved just fast enough to avoid solar-induced over-heating. However, there are large uncertainties concerning the temperature history of our planet and concerning climate sensitivity in the Archean and Proterozoic. When these are included, the solar-flux through time might have been as little as 70-90 % of the maximum thus reducing the significance of the flux-coincidence.

Climatic change and contemporaneous land-use phases north and south of the Alps 2300 BC to 800 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinner, Willy; Lotter, André F.; Ammann, Brigitta; Conedera, Marco; Hubschmid, Priska; van Leeuwen, Jacqueline F. N.; Wehrli, Michael

2003-06-01

Fluctuations in the Δ 14C curve and subsequent gaps of archaeological findings at 800-650 and 400-100 BC in western and central Europe may indicate major climate-driven land-abandonment phases. To address this hypothesis radiocarbon-dated sediments from four lakes in Switzerland were studied palynologically. Pollen analysis indicates contemporaneous phases of forest clearances and of intensified land-use at 1450-1250 BC, 650-450 BC, 50 BC-100 AD and around 700 AD. These land-use expansions coincided with periods of warm climate as recorded by the Alpine dendroclimatic and Greenland oxygen isotope records. Our results suggest that harvest yields would have increased synchronously over wide areas of central and southern Europe during periods of warm and dry climate. Combined interpretation of palaeoecological and archaeological findings suggests that higher food production led to increased human populations. Positive long-term trends in pollen values of Cerealia and Plantago lanceolata indicate that technical innovations during the Bronze and Iron Age (e.g. metal ploughs, scythes, hay production, fertilising methods) gradually increased agricultural productivity. The successful adoption of yield-increasing advances cannot be explained by climatic determinism alone. Combined with archaeological evidence, our results suggest that despite considerable cycles of spatial and demographic reorganisation (repeated land abandonments and expansions, as well as large-scale migrations and population decreases), human societies were able to shift to lower subsistence levels without dramatic ruptures in material culture. However, our data imply that human societies were not able to compensate rapidly for harvest failures when climate deteriorated. Agriculture in marginal areas was abandoned, and spontaneous reforestations took place on abandoned land south and north of the Alps. Only when the climate changed again to drier and warmer conditions did a new wide-spread phase of forest clearances and field extensions occur, allowing the reoccupation of previously abandoned areas. Spatial distribution of cereal cultivation and growth requirements of Cerealia species suggest that increases in precipitation were far more decisive in driving crop failures over central and southern Europe than temperature decreases.

ON IMPROVING THE ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE NEGRO.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

TOBIN, JAMES

EFFORTS TO ELIMINATE NEGRO POVERTY MUST BE UNDERTAKEN WITHIN A FAVORABLE OVERALL ECONOMIC CLIMATE, AND THE CURRENT CLIMATE IS NOT FAVORABLE BECAUSE MANPOWER AND PLANT CAPACITY ARE NOT FULLY UTILIZED. SUCH FACTORS AS LIMITED JOBS, EXAGGERATED JOB REQUIREMENTS, LOWER EARNING CAPACITY, DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT, FLUCTUATIONS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE, AND…

Projected irrigation requirements for upland crops using soil moisture model under climate change in South Korea

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

An increase in abnormal climate change patterns and unsustainable irrigation in uplands cause drought and affect agricultural water security, crop productivity, and price fluctuations. In this study, we developed a soil moisture model to project irrigation requirements (IR) for upland crops under cl...

Scaling Properties and Spatial Interpolation of Soil Moisture

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-08-24

the sensitivities is useful not only for characterizing soil moisture but also for forecasting the vulnerability of a region’s water cycle to climate...regional water balance was presented that can be used to assess the impact of climatic fluctuations and changes on the water cycle of a region. In

Circumpolar analysis of the Adélie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch

USGS Publications Warehouse

Youngflesh, Casey; Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Li, Yun; Ji, Rubao; Ainley, David G.; Ballard, Grant; Barbraud, Christophe; Delord, Karine; Dugger, Catherine; Emmerson, Loiuse M.; Fraser, William R.; Hinke, Jefferson T.; Lyver, Phil O'B.; Olmastroni, Silvia; Southwell, Colin J.; Trivelpiece, Susan G.; Trivelpiece, Wayne Z.; Lynch, Heather J.

2017-01-01

Evidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expect Antarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-driven phenological mismatches with their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological change in Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-ice phenology, and Adélie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, while a temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditions sets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despite previous work suggesting that divergent trends in Adélie Penguin breeding phenology are apparent across the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trend in the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannual variability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driven trends, as observed in other systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-driven phenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system.

Brownian Emitters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsekov, Roumen

2016-06-01

A Brownian harmonic oscillator, which dissipates energy either by friction or via emission of electromagnetic radiation, is considered. This Brownian emitter is driven by the surrounding thermo-quantum fluctuations, which are theoretically described by the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. It is shown how the Abraham-Lorentz force leads to dependence of the half-width on the peak frequency of the oscillator amplitude spectral density. It is found that for the case of a charged particle moving in vacuum at zero temperature, its root-mean-square velocity fluctuation is a universal constant, equal to roughly 1/18 of the speed of light. The relevant Fokker-Planck and Smoluchowski equations are also derived.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

2012-09-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real world climate sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the uppper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present day observables and future changes while the large spread of future projected changes, highlights the ongoing need for such work.

The Abrupt Onset of the Modern South Asian Monsoon Winds (iodp Exp. 359)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betzler, C.; Eberli, G. P.; Kroon, D.; Wright, J. D.; Swart, P. K.; Nath, B. N.; Reijmer, J.; Alvarez Zarikian, C. A.

2016-12-01

The South Asian Monson (SAM) is one of the most extreme features in Earth's climate system, yet its initiation and variations are not well established. The SAM is a seasonal reversal of winds accompanied by changes in precipitation with heavy rain during the summer monsoon. It is one of the most intense annually recurring climatic elements and of immense importance in supplying moisture to the Indian subcontinent thus affecting human population and vegetation, as well as marine biota in the surrounding seas. The seasonal precipitation change is one of the SAM elements most noticed on land, whereas the reversal of the wind regime is the dominating driver of circulation in the central and northern Indian Ocean realm. New data acquired during International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 359 from the Inner Sea of the Maldives provide a previously unread archive that reveals an abrupt onset of the SAM-linked ocean circulation pattern and its relationship to the long term Neogene climate cooling. In particular it registers ocean current fluctuations and changes of intermediate water mass properties for the last 25 myrs that are directly related to the monsoon. Dating the deposits of SAM wind-driven currents yields an age of 12.9 Ma indicating an abrupt SAM onset, over a short period of 300 kyrs. This coincided with the Indian Ocean Oxygen Minimum Zone expansion as revealed by geochemical tracers and the onset of upwelling reflected by the sediment's content of sedimentary organic matter. A weaker `proto-monsoon' existed between 12.9 and 25 Ma, as mirrored by the sedimentary signature of dust influx. Abrupt SAM initiation favors a strong influence of climate in addition to the tectonic control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together with increased continentalization and establishment of the bipolar ocean circulation, i.e. the beginning of the modern world, shifted the monsoon over a threshold towards the modern system.

Climate Variability and Siliciclastic Deposition on a Carbonate Margin - Neogene of the Northwest Shelf of Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tagliaro, G.; Fulthorpe, C.; Gallagher, S. J.; McHugh, C.; Kominz, M. A.; Lavier, L.

2017-12-01

The Bare Formation represents a unique episode of Neogene siliciclastic deposition on the carbonate-dominated Australian Northwest Shelf (NWS). International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 356 drilling results, coupled with interpretation of 3D seismic data, allow us to constrain the timing of siliciclastic deposition and the associated sedimentary processes. IODP Sites U1462, U1463 and U1464 provide age control that reveals the relationship of the Bare Fm. to the adjacent carbonate sediments. The Bare Fm. is preceded by middle to late Miocene shelf exposure and karstification. Elongate beach barrier deposits with small lobate deltas to the NE developed during the late Miocene. However, fluvial deposition increased markedly in the Zanclean, resulting in development of a large tide-and-wave-influenced delta, with evidence of tidal channels, comprising the thickest component of the Bare Fm. Siliciclastic input decreased in the Piacenzian, leading to margin retreat and final termination near the Plio-Pleistocene boundary. The results correlate with regional climate and sedimentary records derived from Sites U1459, U1463 and U1464, that indicate an arid middle to late Miocene, followed by a humid interval in the Zanclean and a return to arid conditions during the Piacenzian. Therefore, we suggest that fluctuation of surface runoff patterns in the continental hinterlands is the primary control of Bare Fm. evolution. Hence, Neogene siliciclastic distribution is a result of regional climate variability on the NWS. Up to 40 km of shoreline advance is verified in the Late Miocene and Pliocene, an example of climate-driven modification of a continental margin. Additionally, longshore transport intensifies during the Pliocene humid interval, causing NE migration of the deltaic system. Sedimentary and climate transitions are linked to reorganization of Indian Ocean paleoceanography, accompanying northward migration of the Australian continent and progressive restriction of the Indonesian Throughflow.

Modeling the impact of hydraulic redistribution on the carbon flux and storages using CLM4.5 at four AmeriFlux Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, C.; Wang, G.; Cardon, Z. G.

2015-12-01

Effects of hydraulic redistribution (HR) on the hydrological cycle and ecosystem dynamics have been demonstrated in the field, but few modeling studies have compared HR's influences on the carbon cycle in different ecosystems and climate regions. The soil moisture changes associated with HR could influence plant carbon gain via two mechanisms: (1) improved plant water status supporting stomatal opening, and/or (2) enhanced nutrient availability to plants caused by enhanced soil microbial activity. In this study, using a modified version of the Community Land Model with Century-based soil carbon pool kinetics that includes the "Ryel et al. 2002" scheme for hydraulic redistribution (HR), the influence of HR on the carbon flux and storage is investigated at four Ameriflux sites where HR was detected from soil moisture measurements. The study sites include a Douglas-fir site (US-Wrc) in Washington State with a mediterranean climate, a savanna site (US-SRM) in Arizona with a semi-arid climate, an oak/pine forest site (US-SCf) in Southern California with a mediterranean climate, and an evergreen broadleaf forest site (BR-Sa1) with tropical monsoon climate. Simulations revealed that HR tended to enhance plant growth at all four sites, and incorporating HR into CLM4.5 reduces the temporal fluctuation of soil carbon storage at all four sites. Simulations with HR can capture the net carbon exchange between ecosystem and the atmosphere (NEE) at the US-Wrc, US-SRM, and BR-Sa1 sites over the annual cycle. Incorporation of HR into CLM4.5 clearly improved the weekly and sub-daily NEE simulation during dry periods at US-SCf and BR-Sa1 site. HR-induced increase in Net Primary Productivity (NPP) at the US-Wrc and US-SRM sites was driven approximately equally by the two distinct mechanisms we investigated: increased stomatal conductance and increased nutrient availability to plants.

Climate Variability, Climate Change and Social Vulnerability in the Semi-arid Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribot, Jesse C.; Rocha Magalhaes, Antonio; Panagides, Stahis

1996-06-01

Climate changes can trigger events that lead to mass migration, hunger, and even famine. Rather than focus on the impacts that result from climatic fluctuations, the authors look at the underlying conditions that cause social vulnerability. Once we understand why individuals, households, nations, and regions are vulnerable, and how they have buffered themselves against climatic and environmental shifts, then present and future vulnerability can be redressed. By using case studies from across the globe, the authors explore past experiences with climate variability, and the likely effects of--and the possible policy responses to--the types of climatic events that global warming might bring.

A treatment planning study to assess the feasibility of laser-driven proton therapy using a compact gantry design.

PubMed

Hofmann, Kerstin M; Masood, Umar; Pawelke, Joerg; Wilkens, Jan J

2015-09-01

Laser-driven proton acceleration is suggested as a cost- and space-efficient alternative for future radiation therapy centers, although the properties of these beams are fairly different compared to conventionally accelerated proton beams. The laser-driven proton beam is extremely pulsed containing a very high proton number within ultrashort bunches at low bunch repetition rates of few Hz and the energy spectrum of the protons per bunch is very broad. Moreover, these laser accelerated bunches are subject to shot-to-shot fluctuations. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility of a compact gantry design for laser-driven proton therapy and to determine limitations to comply with. Based on a published gantry beam line design which can filter parabolic spectra from an exponentially decaying broad initial spectrum, a treatment planning study was performed on real patient data sets. All potential parabolic spectra were fed into a treatment planning system and numerous spot scanning proton plans were calculated. To investigate limitations in the fluence per bunch, the proton number of the initial spectrum and the beam width at patient entrance were varied. A scenario where only integer shots are delivered as well as an intensity modulation from shot to shot was studied. The resulting plans were evaluated depending on their dosimetric quality and in terms of required treatment time. In addition, the influence of random shot-to-shot fluctuations on the plan quality was analyzed. The study showed that clinically relevant dose distributions can be produced with the system under investigation even with integer shots. For small target volumes receiving high doses per fraction, the initial proton number per bunch must remain between 1.4 × 10(8) and 8.3 × 10(9) to achieve acceptable delivery times as well as plan qualities. For larger target volumes and standard doses per fraction, the initial proton number is even more restricted to stay between 1.4 × 10(9) and 2.9 × 10(9). The lowest delivery time that could be reached for such a case was 16 min for a 10 Hz system. When modulating the intensity from shot to shot, the delivery time can be reduced to 6 min for this scenario. Since the shot-to-shot fluctuations are of random nature, a compensation effect can be observed, especially for higher laser shot numbers. Therefore, a fluctuation of ± 30% within the proton number does not translate into a dosimetric deviation of the same size. However, for plans with short delivery times these fluctuations cannot cancel out sufficiently, even for ± 10% fluctuations. Under the analyzed terms, it is feasible to achieve clinically relevant dose distributions with laser-driven proton beams. However, to keep the delivery times of the proton plans comparable to conventional proton plans for typical target volumes, a device is required which can modulate the bunch intensity from shot to shot. From the laser acceleration point of view, the proton number per bunch must be kept under control as well as the reproducibility of the bunches.

A treatment planning study to assess the feasibility of laser-driven proton therapy using a compact gantry design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hofmann, Kerstin M., E-mail: kerstin.hofmann@lrz.tu-muenchen.de; Wilkens, Jan J.; Masood, Umar

Purpose: Laser-driven proton acceleration is suggested as a cost- and space-efficient alternative for future radiation therapy centers, although the properties of these beams are fairly different compared to conventionally accelerated proton beams. The laser-driven proton beam is extremely pulsed containing a very high proton number within ultrashort bunches at low bunch repetition rates of few Hz and the energy spectrum of the protons per bunch is very broad. Moreover, these laser accelerated bunches are subject to shot-to-shot fluctuations. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility of a compact gantry design for laser-driven proton therapy and tomore » determine limitations to comply with. Methods: Based on a published gantry beam line design which can filter parabolic spectra from an exponentially decaying broad initial spectrum, a treatment planning study was performed on real patient data sets. All potential parabolic spectra were fed into a treatment planning system and numerous spot scanning proton plans were calculated. To investigate limitations in the fluence per bunch, the proton number of the initial spectrum and the beam width at patient entrance were varied. A scenario where only integer shots are delivered as well as an intensity modulation from shot to shot was studied. The resulting plans were evaluated depending on their dosimetric quality and in terms of required treatment time. In addition, the influence of random shot-to-shot fluctuations on the plan quality was analyzed. Results: The study showed that clinically relevant dose distributions can be produced with the system under investigation even with integer shots. For small target volumes receiving high doses per fraction, the initial proton number per bunch must remain between 1.4 × 10{sup 8} and 8.3 × 10{sup 9} to achieve acceptable delivery times as well as plan qualities. For larger target volumes and standard doses per fraction, the initial proton number is even more restricted to stay between 1.4 × 10{sup 9} and 2.9 × 10{sup 9}. The lowest delivery time that could be reached for such a case was 16 min for a 10 Hz system. When modulating the intensity from shot to shot, the delivery time can be reduced to 6 min for this scenario. Since the shot-to-shot fluctuations are of random nature, a compensation effect can be observed, especially for higher laser shot numbers. Therefore, a fluctuation of ±30% within the proton number does not translate into a dosimetric deviation of the same size. However, for plans with short delivery times these fluctuations cannot cancel out sufficiently, even for ±10% fluctuations. Conclusions: Under the analyzed terms, it is feasible to achieve clinically relevant dose distributions with laser-driven proton beams. However, to keep the delivery times of the proton plans comparable to conventional proton plans for typical target volumes, a device is required which can modulate the bunch intensity from shot to shot. From the laser acceleration point of view, the proton number per bunch must be kept under control as well as the reproducibility of the bunches.« less

Solar radiation and landscape evolution: co-evolution of topography, vegetation, and erosion rates in a semi-arid ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Yetemen, Omer

2016-04-01

In this study CHILD landscape evolution model (LEM) is used to study the role of solar radiation on the co-evolution of landscape morphology, vegetation patterns, and erosion rates in a central New Mexico catchment. In the study site north facing slopes (NFS) are characterized by steep diffusion-dominated planar hillslopes covered by co-exiting juniper pine and grass vegetation. South facing slopes (SFS) are characterized by shallow slopes and covered by sparse shrub vegetation. Measured short-term and Holocene-averaged erosion rates show higher soil loss on SFS than NFS. In this study CHILD LEM is first confirmed with ecohydrologic field data and used to systematically examine the co-evolution of topography, vegetation pattern, and erosion rates. Aspect- and network-control are identified as the two main topographic drivers of soil moisture and vegetation organization on the landscape. Landscape-scale and long-term implications of solar radiation driven ecohdrologic patterns emerged in modeled landscape: NFS supported denser vegetation cover and became steeper and planar, while on SFS vegetation grew sparser and slopes declined with more fluvial activity. At the landscape scale, these differential erosion processes led to asymmetric development of catchment forms, consistent with regional observations. While the general patterns of vegetation and topography were reproduced by the model using a stationary representation of the current climate, the observed differential Holocene erosion rates were captured by the model only when cyclic climate is used. This suggests sensitivity of Holocene erosion rates to long-term climate fluctuations.

Both temperature fluctuations and East Asian monsoons have driven plant diversification in the karst ecosystems from southern China.

PubMed

Kong, Hanghui; Condamine, Fabien L; Harris, A J; Chen, Junlin; Pan, Bo; Möller, Michael; Hoang, Van Sam; Kang, Ming

2017-11-01

Karst ecosystems in southern China are species-rich and have high levels of endemism, yet little is known regarding the evolutionary processes responsible for the origin and diversification of karst biodiversity. The genus Primulina (Gesneriaceae) comprises ca. 170 species endemic to southern China with high levels of ecological (edaphic) specialization, providing an exceptional model to study the plant diversification in karsts. We used molecular data from nine chloroplast and 11 nuclear regions and macroevolutionary analyses to assess the origin and cause of species diversification due to palaeoenvironmental changes and edaphic specialization in Primulina. We found that speciation was positively associated with changes in past temperatures and East Asian monsoons through the evolutionary history of Primulina. Climatic change around the mid-Miocene triggered an early burst followed by a slowdown of diversification rate towards the present with the climate cooling. We detected different speciation rates among edaphic types, and transitions among soil types were infrequently and did not impact the overall speciation rate. Our findings suggest that both global temperature changes and East Asian monsoons have played crucial roles in floristic diversification within the karst ecosystems in southern China, such that speciation was higher when climate was warmer and wetter. This is the first study to directly demonstrate that past monsoon activity is positively correlated with speciation rate in East Asia. This case study could motivate further investigations to assess the impacts of past environmental changes on the origin and diversification of biodiversity in global karst ecosystems, most of which are under threat. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Late Eocene clay boron-derived paleosalinity in the Qaidam Basin and its implications for regional tectonics and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Chengcheng; Yang, Yibo; Fang, Xiaomin; Zhang, Weilin

2016-12-01

The Qaidam Basin, located on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and containing Cenozoic sediments with a maximum thickness of 12,000 m, is an ideal place to study the phased uplift of the NE Tibetan Plateau and regional climate change. The estimation of the paleosalinity of sedimentary environments not only helps to evaluate the evolution of lakes in this region but offers insights into contemporaneous climate change. We present detailed geochemical and mineralogical investigations from the lacustrine interval of the Hongliugou section in the northern Qaidam Basin to reconstruct salinity fluctuations in the paleolake during the late Eocene era ( 42.0-35.5 Ma). The clay mineral assemblages mainly contain smectite, illite, chlorite, kaolinite and irregular illite/smectite mixed layers. Clay boron-derived paleosalinity estimates (equivalent boron content, Couch's paleosalimeter and B/Ga ratios) along with other proxies sensitive to salinity changes (e.g., Rb/K ratios and ostracod assemblages) collectively indicate an overall brackish sedimentary environment with a higher-salinity period at approximately 40.0-39.2 Ma. This higher-salinity period indicates a more arid environment and is probably related to global cooling. However, the global cooling in late Eocene cannot explain the overall stable long-term salinity pattern, implying that other factors exist. We propose that the migration of the Yiliping depression depocenter in the northern Qaidam and increased orographic rainfall induced by late Eocene tectonic activity at the northern margin of the basin might have partly offset the increase in salinity driven by global cooling.

Evidence of a New Instability in Gyrokinetic Simulations of LAPD Plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terry, P. W.; Pueschel, M. J.; Rossi, G.; Jenko, F.; Told, D.; Carter, T. A.

2015-11-01

Recent experiments at the LArge Plasma Device (LAPD) have focused on structure formation driven by density and temperature gradients. A central difference relative to typical, tokamak-like plasmas stems from the linear geometry and absence of background magnetic shear. At sufficiently high β, strong excitation of parallel (compressional) magnetic fluctuations was observed. Here, linear and nonlinear simulations with the Gene code are used to demonstrate that these findings can be explained through the linear excitation of a Gradient-driven Drift Coupling mode (GDC). This recently-discovered instability, unlike other drift waves, relies on the grad-B drift due to parallel magnetic fluctuations in lieu of a parallel electron response, and can be driven by density or temperature gradients. The linear properties of the GDC for LAPD parameters are studied in detail, and the corresponding turbulence is investigated. It is found that, despite the very large collisionality in the experiment, many properties are recovered fairly well in the simulations. In addition to confirming the existence of the GDC, this opens up interesting questions regarding GDC activity in astrophysical and space plasmas. Supported by USDOE.

On the Edge: the Impact of Climate Change, Climate Extremes, and Climate-driven Disturbances on the Food-Energy-Water Nexus in the Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, K. E.; McDowell, N. G.; Tidwell, V. C.; Xu, C.; Solander, K.; Jonko, A. K.; Wilson, C. J.; Middleton, R. S.

2016-12-01

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) is a critical watershed in terms of vulnerability to climate change and supporting the food-energy-water nexus. Climate-driven disturbances in the CRB—including wildfire, drought, and pests—threaten the watershed's ability to reliably support a wide array of ecosystem services while meeting the interrelated demands of the food-energy-water nexus. Our work illustrates future changes for upper Colorado River headwater basins using the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model driven by downscaled CMIP5 global climate data coupled with pseudo-dynamic vegetation shifts associated with changing fire and drought conditions. We examine future simulated streamflow within the context of an operational model framework to consider the impacts on water operators and managers who rely upon the timely and continual delivery of streamflow. We focus on results for a large case study basin within the CRB—the San Juan River—showing future scenarios where this ecosystem is pushed towards the extremes. Our findings illustrate that landscape change in the CRB cause delayed snowmelt and increased evapotranspiration from shrublands, which leads to increases in the frequency and magnitude of both droughts and floods within disturbed systems. By 2080, coupled climate and landscape change produces a dramatically altered hydrograph resulting in larger peak flows, reduced lower flows, and lower overall streamflow. Operationally, this results in increased future water delivery challenges and lower reservoir storages driven by changes in the headwater basins. Ultimately, our work shows that the already-stressed CRB ecosystem could, in the future, be pushed over a tipping point, significantly impacting the basin's ability to reliably supply water for food, energy, and urban uses.

European vegetation during Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage-3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntley, Brian; Alfano, Mary J. o.; Allen, Judy R. M.; Pollard, Dave; Tzedakis, Polychronis C.; de Beaulieu, Jacques-Louis; Grüger, Eberhard; Watts, Bill

2003-03-01

European vegetation during representative "warm" and "cold" intervals of stage-3 was inferred from pollen analytical data. The inferred vegetation differs in character and spatial pattern from that of both fully glacial and fully interglacial conditions and exhibits contrasts between warm and cold intervals, consistent with other evidence for stage-3 palaeoenvironmental fluctuations. European vegetation thus appears to have been an integral component of millennial environmental fluctuations during stage-3; vegetation responded to this scale of environmental change and through feedback mechanisms may have had effects upon the environment. The pollen-inferred vegetation was compared with vegetation simulated using the BIOME 3.5 vegetation model for climatic conditions simulated using a regional climate model (RegCM2) nested within a coupled global climate and vegetation model (GENESIS-BIOME). Despite some discrepancies in detail, both approaches capture the principal features of the present vegetation of Europe. The simulated vegetation for stage-3 differs markedly from that inferred from pollen analytical data, implying substantial discrepancy between the simulated climate and that actually prevailing. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the simulated climate is too warm and probably has too short a winter season. These discrepancies may reflect incorrect specification of sea surface temperature or sea-ice conditions and may be exacerbated by vegetation-climate feedback in the coupled global model.

Nonlinear Response of Layer Growth Dynamics in the Mixed Kinetics-Bulk-Transport Regime

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vekilov, Peter G.; Alexander, J. Iwan D.; Rosenberger, Franz

1996-01-01

In situ high-resolution interferometry on horizontal facets of the protein lysozyme reveal that the local growth rate R, vicinal slope p, and tangential (step) velocity v fluctuate by up to 80% of their average values. The time scale of these fluctuations, which occur under steady bulk transport conditions through the formation and decay of step bunches (macrosteps), is of the order of 10 min. The fluctuation amplitude of R increases with growth rate (supersaturation) and crystal size, while the amplitude of the v and p fluctuations changes relatively little. Based on a stability analysis for equidistant step trains in the mixed transport-interface-kinetics regime, we argue that the fluctuations originate from the coupling of bulk transport with nonlinear interface kinetics. Furthermore, step bunches moving across the interface in the direction of or opposite to the buoyancy-driven convective flow increase or decrease in height, respectively. This is in agreement with analytical treatments of the interaction of moving steps with solution flow. Major excursions in growth rate are associated with the formation of lattice defects (striations). We show that, in general, the system-dependent kinetic Peclet number, Pe(sub k) , i.e., the relative weight of bulk transport and interface kinetics in the control of the growth process, governs the step bunching dynamics. Since Pe(sub k) can be modified by either forced solution flow or suppression of buoyancy-driven convection under reduced gravity, this model provides a rationale for the choice of specific transport conditions to minimize the formation of compositional inhomogeneities under steady bulk nutrient crystallization conditions.

Time-resolved microrheology of actively remodeling actomyosin networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Marina Soares e.; Stuhrmann, Björn; Betz, Timo; Koenderink, Gijsje H.

2014-07-01

Living cells constitute an extraordinary state of matter since they are inherently out of thermal equilibrium due to internal metabolic processes. Indeed, measurements of particle motion in the cytoplasm of animal cells have revealed clear signatures of nonthermal fluctuations superposed on passive thermal motion. However, it has been difficult to pinpoint the exact molecular origin of this activity. Here, we employ time-resolved microrheology based on particle tracking to measure nonequilibrium fluctuations produced by myosin motor proteins in a minimal model system composed of purified actin filaments and myosin motors. We show that the motors generate spatially heterogeneous contractile fluctuations, which become less frequent with time as a consequence of motor-driven network remodeling. We analyze the particle tracking data on different length scales, combining particle image velocimetry, an ensemble analysis of the particle trajectories, and finally a kymograph analysis of individual particle trajectories to quantify the length and time scales associated with active particle displacements. All analyses show clear signatures of nonequilibrium activity: the particles exhibit random motion with an enhanced amplitude compared to passive samples, and they exhibit sporadic contractile fluctuations with ballistic motion over large (up to 30 μm) distances. This nonequilibrium activity diminishes with sample age, even though the adenosine triphosphate level is held constant. We propose that network coarsening concentrates motors in large clusters and depletes them from the network, thus reducing the occurrence of contractile fluctuations. Our data provide valuable insight into the physical processes underlying stress generation within motor-driven actin networks and the analysis framework may prove useful for future microrheology studies in cells and model organisms.

Collisionless Isotropization of the Solar-wind Protons by Compressive Fluctuations and Plasma Instabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verscharen, Daniel; Chandran, Benjamin D. G.; Klein, Kristopher G.; Quataert, Eliot

2016-11-01

Compressive fluctuations are a minor yet significant component of astrophysical plasma turbulence. In the solar wind, long-wavelength compressive slow-mode fluctuations lead to changes in {β }\\parallel {{p}}\\equiv 8π {n}{{p}}{k}{{B}}{T}\\parallel {{p}}/{B}2 and in {R}{{p}}\\equiv {T}\\perp {{p}}/{T}\\parallel {{p}}, where {T}\\perp {{p}} and {T}\\parallel {{p}} are the perpendicular and parallel temperatures of the protons, B is the magnetic field strength, and {n}{{p}} is the proton density. If the amplitude of the compressive fluctuations is large enough, {R}{{p}} crosses one or more instability thresholds for anisotropy-driven microinstabilities. The enhanced field fluctuations from these microinstabilities scatter the protons so as to reduce the anisotropy of the pressure tensor. We propose that this scattering drives the average value of {R}{{p}} away from the marginal stability boundary until the fluctuating value of {R}{{p}} stops crossing the boundary. We model this “fluctuating-anisotropy effect” using linear Vlasov-Maxwell theory to describe the large-scale compressive fluctuations. We argue that this effect can explain why, in the nearly collisionless solar wind, the average value of {R}{{p}} is close to unity.

Deterministic representation of chaos with application to turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zak, M.

1987-01-01

Chaotic motions of nonlinear dynamical systems are decomposed into mean components and fluctuations. The approach is based upon the concept that the fluctuations driven by the instability of the original (unperturbed) motion grow until a new stable state is approached. The Reynolds-type equations written for continuous as well as for finite-degrees-of-freedom dynamical systems are closed by using this stabilization principle. The theory is applied to conservative systems, to strange attractors and to turbulent motions.

Diel fluctuations of viscosity-driven riparian inflow affect streamflow DOC concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwab, Michael P.; Klaus, Julian; Pfister, Laurent; Weiler, Markus

2018-04-01

Diel fluctuations of stream water DOC concentrations are generally explained by a complex interplay of different instream processes. We measured the light absorption spectrum of water and DOC concentrations in situ and with high frequency by means of a UV-Vis spectrometer during 18 months at the outlet of a forested headwater catchment in Luxembourg (0.45 km2). We generally observed diel DOC fluctuations with a maximum in the afternoon during days that were not affected by rainfall-runoff events. We identified an increased inflow of terrestrial DOC to the stream in the afternoon, causing the DOC maxima in the stream. The terrestrial origin of the DOC was derived from the SUVA-254 (specific UV absorbance at 254 nm) index, which is a good indicator for the aromaticity of DOC. In the studied catchment, the most likely process that can explain the diel DOC input variations towards the stream is the so-called viscosity effect. The water temperature in the upper parts of the saturated riparian zone is increasing during the day, leading to a lower viscosity and therefore a higher hydraulic conductivity. Consequently, more water from areas that are rich in terrestrial DOC passes through the saturated riparian zone and contributes to streamflow in the afternoon. We believe that not only diel instream processes, but also viscosity-driven diel fluctuations of terrestrial DOC input should be considered to explain diel DOC patterns in streams.

Direct observation of two-step crystallization in nanoparticle superlattice formation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Jungwon; Zheng, Haimei; Lee, Won Chul

2011-10-06

Direct imaging of nanoparticle solutions by liquid phase transmission electron microscopy has enabled unique in-situ studies of nanoparticle motion and growth. In the present work, we report on real-time formation of two-dimensional nanoparticle arrays in the very low diffusive limit, where nanoparticles are mainly driven by capillary forces and solvent fluctuations. We find that superlattice formation appears to be segregated into multiple regimes. Initially, the solvent front drags the nanoparticles, condensing them into an amorphous agglomerate. Subsequently, the nanoparticle crystallization into an array is driven by local fluctuations. Following the crystallization event, superlattice growth can also occur via the additionmore » of individual nanoparticles drawn from outlying regions by different solvent fronts. The dragging mechanism is consistent with simulations based on a coarse-grained lattice gas model at the same limit.« less

Is Global Warming Accelerating?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, J.; Delsole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.

2009-12-01

A global pattern that fluctuates naturally on decadal time scales is identified in climate simulations and observations. This newly discovered component, called the Global Multidecadal Oscillation (GMO), is related to the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and shown to account for a substantial fraction of decadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature. IPCC-class climate models generally underestimate the variance of the GMO, and hence underestimate the decadal fluctuations due to this component of natural variability. Decomposing observed sea surface temperature into a component due to anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing plus the GMO, reveals that most multidecadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature can be accounted for by these two components alone. The fact that the GMO varies naturally on multidecadal time scales implies that it can be predicted with some skill on decadal time scales, which provides a scientific rationale for decadal predictions. Furthermore, the GMO is shown to account for about half of the warming in the last 25 years and hence a substantial fraction of the recent acceleration in the rate of increase in global average sea surface temperature. Nevertheless, in terms of the global average “well-observed” sea surface temperature, the GMO can account for only about 0.1° C in transient, decadal-scale fluctuations, not the century-long 1° C warming that has been observed during the twentieth century.

Association between climate variability and malaria epidemics in the East African highlands.

PubMed

Zhou, Guofa; Minakawa, Noboru; Githeko, Andrew K; Yan, Guiyun

2004-02-24

The causes of the recent reemergence of Plasmodium falciparum epidemic malaria in the East African highlands are controversial. Regional climate changes have been invoked as a major factor; however, assessing the impact of climate in malaria resurgence is difficult due to high spatial and temporal climate variability and the lack of long-term data series on malaria cases from different sites. Climate variability, defined as short-term fluctuations around the mean climate state, may be epidemiologically more relevant than mean temperature change, but its effects on malaria epidemics have not been rigorously examined. Here we used nonlinear mixed-regression model to investigate the association between autoregression (number of malaria outpatients during the previous time period), seasonality and climate variability, and the number of monthly malaria outpatients of the past 10-20 years in seven highland sites in East Africa. The model explained 65-81% of the variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients. Nonlinear and synergistic effects of temperature and rainfall on the number of malaria outpatients were found in all seven sites. The net variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients caused by autoregression and seasonality varied among sites and ranged from 18 to 63% (mean=38.6%), whereas 12-63% (mean=36.1%) of variance is attributed to climate variability. Our results suggest that there was a high spatial variation in the sensitivity of malaria outpatient number to climate fluctuations in the highlands, and that climate variability played an important role in initiating malaria epidemics in the East African highlands.

A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever.

PubMed

Leedale, Joseph; Jones, Anne E; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P

2016-03-31

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

The impact of land use on carbon and climate in the preindustrial Holocene: What have we learned and what are the priorities for future research?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, E. C.; Kaplan, J. O.

2015-12-01

Did humans affect global climate over the before the Industrial Era? While this question is hotly debated, the co-evolution of humans and the natural environment over the last 11,700 years had an undisputed role in influencing the development and present state of terrestrial ecosystems. Yet we still have a very incomplete picture of human-environment interactions over the Holocene. In order to address this lack of understanding, both bottom-up and top-down approaches have been used to reconstruct past human impact on the global carbon cycle and climate. Top-down approaches rely on the analysis of the concentrations and isotopic signature of trace gases trapped in polar ice to identify human contributions to atmospheric composition. Bottom-up approaches combine historical and archaeological data to reconstruct land use, and using these reconstructions drive earth system models that simulate carbon cycling and climate. Recently a number of studies, both top-down and bottom-up, have shed new light on the role of land use influencing the carbon cycle and climate over the preindustrial Holocene. Ice core studies generally suggested that late Holocene CO2 was driven by natural fluctuations in climate and ocean circulation. The evidence from bottom-up studies is more nuanced. Most scenarios of Holocene anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) tend to agree in the net magnitude of deforestation at AD 1850. But ALCC scenarios vary widely in the timing of deforestation over the course of the preindustrial Holocene. These differences lead to multiple plausible explanations to the atmospheric composition record, including scenarios that allow for a substantial amount of anthropogenic deforestation in preindustrial time. Uncertainty in our understanding of preindustrial ALCC also leads to large differences in the estimated importance of land use on climate earlier in the Holocene. For example, modelling experiments performed for Europe representing conditions at the peak of the Roman Empire show potentially large impacts of land use on regional climate. The wide variety of results gained so far from ALCC and climate modelling experiments shows that the question of "how much did humans influence the state of the Earth System before the Industrial Revolution?" is far from being resolved.

European Climate and Pinot Noir Grape-Harvest Dates in Burgundy, since the 17th Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourre, Y. M.

2011-12-01

Time-series of growing season air temperature anomalies in the Parisian region and of 'Pinot Noir' grape-harvest dates (GHD) in Burgundy (1676-2004) are analyzed in the frequency-domain. Variability of both time-series display three significant frequency-bands (peaks significant at the 5% level) i.e., a low-frequency band (multi-decadal) with a 25-year peak period; a 3-to-8 year band period (inter-annual) with a 3.1-year peak period; and a 2-to-3 year band period (quasi-biennial) with a 2.4-year peak period. Joint sea surface temperature/sea level pressure (SST/SLP) empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analyses during the 20th century, along with spatio-temporal patterns for the above frequency-bands are presented. It is found that SST anomalies display early significant spatial SST patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean (air temperature lagging by 6 months) similar to those obtained from EOF analyses. It is thus proposed that the robust power spectra for the above frequency-bands could be linked with Atlantic climate variability metrics modulating Western European climate i.e., 1) the global Multi-decadal Oscillation (MDO) with its Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) footprint; 2) the Atlantic Inter-Annual (IA) fluctuations; and 3) the Atlantic Quasi-Biennial (QB) fluctuations, respectively. Moreover these specific Western European climate signals have effects on ecosystem health and can be perceived as contributors to the length of the growing season and the timing of GHD in Burgundy. Thus advance knowledge on the evolution and phasing of the above climate fluctuations become important elements for viticulture and wine industry management. It is recognized that anthropogenic effects could have modified time-series patterns presented here, particularly since the mid 1980s.

Multiple abiotic stimuli are integrated in the regulation of rice gene expression under field conditions

PubMed Central

Plessis, Anne; Hafemeister, Christoph; Wilkins, Olivia; Gonzaga, Zennia Jean; Meyer, Rachel Sarah; Pires, Inês; Müller, Christian; Septiningsih, Endang M; Bonneau, Richard; Purugganan, Michael

2015-01-01

Plants rely on transcriptional dynamics to respond to multiple climatic fluctuations and contexts in nature. We analyzed the genome-wide gene expression patterns of rice (Oryza sativa) growing in rainfed and irrigated fields during two distinct tropical seasons and determined simple linear models that relate transcriptomic variation to climatic fluctuations. These models combine multiple environmental parameters to account for patterns of expression in the field of co-expressed gene clusters. We examined the similarities of our environmental models between tropical and temperate field conditions, using previously published data. We found that field type and macroclimate had broad impacts on transcriptional responses to environmental fluctuations, especially for genes involved in photosynthesis and development. Nevertheless, variation in solar radiation and temperature at the timescale of hours had reproducible effects across environmental contexts. These results provide a basis for broad-based predictive modeling of plant gene expression in the field. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08411.001 PMID:26609814

The Sun-Earth connect 3: lessons from the periodicities of deep time influencing sea-level change and marine extinctions in the geological record.

PubMed

Baker, Robert Gv; Flood, Peter G

2015-01-01

A number of papers since Rampino and Stothers published in Science 1984 have reported common periodicities in a wide range of climate, geomagnetic, tectonic and biological proxies, including marine extinctions. Single taper and multitaper spectral analysis of marine fluctuations between the Late Cretaceous and the Miocene replicates a number of the published harmonics. Whereas these common periodicities have been argued to have a galactic origin, this paper presents an alternative fractal model based on large scale fluctuations of the magnetic field of the Sun. The fluctuations follow a self-similar matrix of periodicities and the solutions of the differential equation allow for models to be constructed predicting extreme events for solar emissions. A comparison to major Phanerozoic extinction, climate and geomagnetic events, captured in the geological record, show a striking loop symmetry summarised in major 66 Ma irradiance and electromagnetic pulses from the Sun.

Holocene geologic and climatic history around the Gulf of Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mann, D.H.; Crowell, A.L.; Hamilton, T.D.; Finney, B.P.

1998-01-01

Though not as dramatic as during the last Ice Age, pronounced climatic changes occurred in the northeastern Pacific over the last 10,000 years. Summers warmer and drier than today's accompanied a Hypsithermal interval between 9 and 6 ka. Subsequent Neoglaciation was marked by glacier expansion after 5-6 ka and the assembly of modern-type plant communities by 3-4 ka. The Neoglacial interval contained alternating cold and warm intervals, each lasting several hundred years to one millennium, and including both the Medieval Warm Period (ca. AD 900-1350) and the Little Ice Age (ca. AD 1350-1900). Salmon abundance fluctuated during the Little Ice Age in response to local glaciation and probably also to changes in the intensity of the Aleutian Low. Although poorly understood at present, climate fluctuations at all time scales were intimately connected with oceanographic changes in the North Pacific Ocean. The Gulf of Alaska region is tectonically highly active, resulting in a history of frequent geological catastrophes during the Holocene. Twelve to 14 major volcanic eruptions occurred since 12 ka. At intervals of 20-100 years, large earthquakes have raised and lowered sea level instantaneously by meters and generated destructive tsunamis. Sea level has often varied markedly between sites only 50-100 km apart due to tectonism and the isostatic effects of glacier fluctuations.

Possible Significance of Early Paleozoic Fluctuations in Bottom Current Intensity, Northwest Iapetus Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lash, Gary G.

1986-06-01

Sedimentologic and geochemical characteristics of red and green deep water mudstone exposed in the central Appalachian orogen define climatically-induced fluctuations in bottom current intensity along the northwest flank of the Iapetus Ocean in Early and Middle Ordovician time. Red mudstone accumulated under the influence of moderate to vigorous bottom current velocities in oxygenated bottom water produced during climatically cool periods. Interbedded green mudstone accumulated at greater sedimentation rates, probably from turbidity currents, under the influence of reduced thermohaline circulation during global warming periods. The close association of green mudstone and carbonate turbidites of Early Ordovician (late Tremadocian to early Arenigian) age suggests that a major warming phase occurred at this time. Increasing temperatures reduced bottom current velocities and resulted in increased production of carbonate sediment and organic carbon on the carbonate platform of eastern North America. Much of the excess carbonate sediment and organic carbon was transported into deep water by turbidity currents. Although conclusive evidence is lacking, this eustatic event may reflect a climatic warming phase that followed the postulated glacio-eustatic Black Mountain event. Subsequent Middle Ordovician fluctuations in bottom current intensity recorded by thin red-green mudstone couplets probably reflect periodic growth and shrinkage of an ice cap rather than major glacial episodes.

Effect of global climate change on rare trees and shrubs

Treesearch

Margaret S. Devall

2008-01-01

In the past, climate has fluctuated with periodsof cooler, warmer, drier or wetter weather thanat present. Plants have been able to adapt,but widespread, rapid warming could be disastrousfor rare trees and shrubs – i.e. thosenative species that are among an area’s most

A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science

PubMed Central

Moon, Woosok; Wettlaufer, John S.

2017-01-01

Earth’s orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Nio and the Indian Dipole Mode. In analogy with the classical destabilising influence of the ice-albedo feedback on summertime sea ice, we find that during some time interval of the season a destabilising process operates in all of these climate phenomena. The interaction between the destabilisation and the accumulation of noise, which we term the memory effect, underlies phase locking to the seasonal cycle and the statistical nature of seasonal predictability. PMID:28287128

A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science.

PubMed

Moon, Woosok; Wettlaufer, John S

2017-03-13

Earth's orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Nio and the Indian Dipole Mode. In analogy with the classical destabilising influence of the ice-albedo feedback on summertime sea ice, we find that during some time interval of the season a destabilising process operates in all of these climate phenomena. The interaction between the destabilisation and the accumulation of noise, which we term the memory effect, underlies phase locking to the seasonal cycle and the statistical nature of seasonal predictability.

A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Woosok; Wettlaufer, John

2017-04-01

Earth's orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Niño and the Indian Dipole Mode. In analogy with the classical destabilising influence of the ice-albedo feedback on summertime sea ice, we find that during some period of the season a destabilising process operates in all of these climate phenomena. The interaction between the destabilisation and the accumulation of noise, which we term the memory effect, underlies phase locking to the seasonal cycle and the statistical nature of seasonal predictability.

[Cyclic processes in the dynamics of the population count of the taiga tick and their relation to weather and climatic conditions].

PubMed

Korotkov, Iu S

1998-01-01

The paper continues the discussion of published materials on the dynamic of Ixodes persulcatus number in mountain forests of the central part of the Krasnoyarsk region during 1958-1990 (Korotkov e. a., 1992). An unstationarity and polycyclicity of examined processus is confirmed. It is shown, that long-term and middle-term quasi-periodical fluctuations of the tick number are determined by successive changing in forest biocenoses going under the influence of respective fluctuations of the climate. The synchronization of climatic and biocenotic processes is complicatedly organized in time and is not indicated phenomenologically. Certain quasi-periodical components in their indices of the tick number and climate are quite different by their amplitude, value of phase displacement, and longevity of terms. However, these structural differences are natural and determined by peculiarities of the response reaction of I. persulcatus to different intensivity of acting factor. This reaction under extreme environment conditions, both minimal and maximal ones, leads to the same result, the decreasing of the vital activity and the tick number.

Centennial-scale fluctuations and regional complexity characterize Pacific salmon population dynamics over the past five centuries.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Schindler, Daniel E; Lisi, Peter J; Holtgrieve, Gordon W; Leavitt, Peter R; Bunting, Lynda; Finney, Bruce P; Selbie, Daniel T; Chen, Guangjie; Gregory-Eaves, Irene; Lisac, Mark J; Walsh, Patrick B

2013-01-29

Observational data from the past century have highlighted the importance of interdecadal modes of variability in fish population dynamics, but how these patterns of variation fit into a broader temporal and spatial context remains largely unknown. We analyzed time series of stable nitrogen isotopes from the sediments of 20 sockeye salmon nursery lakes across western Alaska to characterize temporal and spatial patterns in salmon abundance over the past ∼500 y. Although some stocks varied on interdecadal time scales (30- to 80-y cycles), centennial-scale variation, undetectable in modern-day catch records and survey data, has dominated salmon population dynamics over the past 500 y. Before 1900, variation in abundance was clearly not synchronous among stocks, and the only temporal signal common to lake sediment records from this region was the onset of commercial fishing in the late 1800s. Thus, historical changes in climate did not synchronize stock dynamics over centennial time scales, emphasizing that ecosystem complexity can produce a diversity of ecological responses to regional climate forcing. Our results show that marine fish populations may alternate between naturally driven periods of high and low abundance over time scales of decades to centuries and suggest that management models that assume time-invariant productivity or carrying capacity parameters may be poor representations of the biological reality in these systems.

Periodic fluctuation of reference evapotranspiration during the past five decades: Does Evaporation Paradox really exist in China?

PubMed Central

Xing, Wanqiu; Wang, Weiguang; Shao, Quanxi; Yu, Zhongbo; Yang, Tao; Fu, Jianyu

2016-01-01

Evidence that the pan evaporation or reference evapotranspiration (ET0) as the indicator of atmospheric evaporation capability have decreased along with the continuous increase in temperature over the past decades (coined as “evaporation paradox”) has been reported worldwide. Here, we provide a nationwide investigation of spatiotemporal change of ET0 using meteorological data from 602 stations with the updated data (1961–2011). In addition, we explore the trigger mechanism by quantitative assessment on the contribution of climatic factors to ET0 change based on a differential equation method. In despite of different shift points regionally, our results suggest that the ET0 generally present decadal variations rather than monotonic response to climate change reported in previous studies. The significant decrease in net radiation dominate the decrease in ET0 before early 1990s in southern regions, while observed near-surface wind speed is the primary contributor to the variations of ET0 for the rest regions during the same periods. The enhancements of atmospheric evaporation capability after early 1990s are driven primarily by recent relative humidity limitation in China. From a continental scale view, as highly correlating with to Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the shift behaviors of ET0 is likely an episodic phenomenon of the ocean-atmosphere interaction in earth. PMID:27991576

Centennial-scale fluctuations and regional complexity characterize Pacific salmon population dynamics over the past five centuries

PubMed Central

Rogers, Lauren A.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Lisi, Peter J.; Holtgrieve, Gordon W.; Leavitt, Peter R.; Bunting, Lynda; Finney, Bruce P.; Selbie, Daniel T.; Chen, Guangjie; Gregory-Eaves, Irene; Lisac, Mark J.; Walsh, Patrick B.

2013-01-01

Observational data from the past century have highlighted the importance of interdecadal modes of variability in fish population dynamics, but how these patterns of variation fit into a broader temporal and spatial context remains largely unknown. We analyzed time series of stable nitrogen isotopes from the sediments of 20 sockeye salmon nursery lakes across western Alaska to characterize temporal and spatial patterns in salmon abundance over the past ∼500 y. Although some stocks varied on interdecadal time scales (30- to 80-y cycles), centennial-scale variation, undetectable in modern-day catch records and survey data, has dominated salmon population dynamics over the past 500 y. Before 1900, variation in abundance was clearly not synchronous among stocks, and the only temporal signal common to lake sediment records from this region was the onset of commercial fishing in the late 1800s. Thus, historical changes in climate did not synchronize stock dynamics over centennial time scales, emphasizing that ecosystem complexity can produce a diversity of ecological responses to regional climate forcing. Our results show that marine fish populations may alternate between naturally driven periods of high and low abundance over time scales of decades to centuries and suggest that management models that assume time-invariant productivity or carrying capacity parameters may be poor representations of the biological reality in these systems. PMID:23322737

Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J

2015-01-01

Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

Patterns of seasonality and group membership characterize the gut microbiota in a longitudinal study of wild Verreaux's sifakas (Propithecus verreauxi).

PubMed

Springer, Andrea; Fichtel, Claudia; Al-Ghalith, Gabriel A; Koch, Flávia; Amato, Katherine R; Clayton, Jonathan B; Knights, Dan; Kappeler, Peter M

2017-08-01

The intestinal microbiota plays a major role in host development, metabolism, and health. To date, few longitudinal studies have investigated the causes and consequences of microbiota variation in wildlife, although such studies provide a comparative context for interpreting the adaptive significance of findings from studies on humans or captive animals. Here, we investigate the impact of seasonality, diet, group membership, sex, age, and reproductive state on gut microbiota composition in a wild population of group-living, frugi-folivorous primates, Verreaux's sifakas ( Propithecus verreauxi ). We repeatedly sampled 32 individually recognizable animals from eight adjacent groups over the course of two different climatic seasons. We used high-throughput sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene to determine the microbiota composition of 187 fecal samples. We demonstrate a clear pattern of seasonal variation in the intestinal microbiota, especially affecting the Firmicutes-Bacteroidetes ratio, which may be driven by seasonal differences in diet. The relative abundances of certain polysaccharide-fermenting taxa, for example, Lachnospiraceae, were correlated with fruit and fiber consumption. Additionally, group membership influenced microbiota composition independent of season, but further studies are needed to determine whether this pattern is driven by group divergences in diet, social contacts, or genetic factors. In accordance with findings in other wild mammals and primates with seasonally fluctuating food availability, we demonstrate seasonal variation in the microbiota of wild Verreaux's sifakas, which may be driven by food availability. This study adds to mounting evidence that variation in the intestinal microbiota may play an important role in the ability of primates to cope with seasonal variation in food availability.

Climatic Fluctuations and the Diffusion of Agriculture*

PubMed Central

Ashraf, Quamrul; Michalopoulos, Stelios

2015-01-01

This research examines the climatic origins of the diffusion of Neolithic agriculture across countries and archaeological sites. The theory suggests that a foraging society’s history of climatic shocks shaped the timing of its adoption of farming. Specifically, as long as climatic disturbances did not lead to a collapse of the underlying resource base, the rate at which hunter-gatherers were climatically propelled to experiment with their habitats determined the accumulation of tacit knowledge complementary to farming. Consistent with the proposed hypothesis, the empirical investigation demonstrates that, conditional on biogeographic endowments, climatic volatility has a hump-shaped effect on the timing of the adoption of agriculture. PMID:27019534

Autumn-winter minimum temperature changes in the southern Sikhote-Alin mountain range of northeastern Asia since 1529 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ukhvatkina, Olga N.; Omelko, Alexander M.; Zhmerenetsky, Alexander A.; Petrenko, Tatyana Y.

2018-01-01

The aim of our research was to reconstruct climatic parameters (for the first time for the Sikhote-Alin mountain range) and to compare them with global climate fluctuations. As a result, we have found that one of the most important limiting factors for the study area is the minimum temperatures of the previous autumn-winter season (August-December), and this finding perfectly conforms to that in other territories. We reconstructed the previous August-December minimum temperature for 485 years, from 1529 to 2014. We found 12 cold periods (1535-1540, 1550-1555, 1643-1649, 1659-1667, 1675-1689, 1722-1735, 1791-1803, 1807-1818, 1822-1827, 1836-1852, 1868-1887, 1911-1925) and seven warm periods (1560-1585, 1600-1610, 1614-1618, 1738-1743, 1756-1759, 1776-1781, 1944-2014). These periods correlate well with reconstructed data for the Northern Hemisphere and the neighboring territories of China and Japan. Our reconstruction has 3-, 9-, 20-, and 200-year periods, which may be in line with high-frequency fluctuations in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the short-term solar cycle, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) fluctuations, and the 200-year solar activity cycle, respectively. We suppose that the temperature of the North Pacific, expressed by the PDO may make a major contribution to regional climate variations. We also assume that the regional climatic response to solar activity becomes apparent in the temperature changes in the northern part of Pacific Ocean and corresponds to cold periods during the solar minimum. These comparisons show that our climatic reconstruction based on tree ring chronology for this area may potentially provide a proxy record for long-term, large-scale past temperature patterns for northeastern Asia. The reconstruction reflects the global traits and local variations in the climatic processes of the southern territory of the Russian Far East for more than the past 450 years.

Vegetation changes and timberline fluctuations in the Central Alps as indicators of holocene climatic oscillations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wick, L.; Tinner, W.

Pollen and plant-macrofossil data are presented for two lakes near the timberline in the Italian (Lago Basso, 2250 m) and Swiss Central Alps (Gouille Rion, 2343 m). The reforestation at both sites started at 9700-9500 BP with Pinus cembra, Larix decidua, and Betula. The timberline reached its highest elevation between 8700 and 5000 BP and retreated after 5000 BP, due to a mid-Holocene climatic change and increasing human impact since about 3500 BP (Bronze Age). The expansion of Picea abies at Lago Basso between ca. 7500 and 6200 BP was probably favored by cold phases accompanied by increased oceanicity, whereasmore » in the area of Gouille Rion, where spruce expanded rather late (between 4500 and 3500 BP), human influence equality might have been important. The mass expansion of Alnus viridis between ca. 5000 and 3500 BP probably can be related to both climatic change and human activity at timberline. During the early and middle Holocene a series of timberline fluctuations is recorded as declines in pollen and macrofossil concentrations of the major tree species, and as increases in nonarboreal pollen in the pollen percentage diagram of Gouille Rion. Most of the periods of low timberline can be correlated by radiocarbon dating the climatic changes in the Alps as indicated by glacier advances in combination with palynological records, solifluction, and dendroclimatical data. Lago Basso and Gouille Rion are the only sites in the Alps showing complete palaeobotanical records of cold phases between 10,000 and 2000 BP with very good time control. The altitudinal range of the Holocene treeline fluctuations caused by climate most likely was not more than 100 to 150 m. A possible correlation of a cold period at ca. 7500-6500 BP (Misox oscillation) in the Alps is made with paleoecological data from North American and Scandinavia and a climate signal in the GRIP ice core from central Greenland 8200 yr ago (ca. 7400 yr uncal. BP).« less

Large-Scale Chaos and Fluctuations in Active Nematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngo, Sandrine; Peshkov, Anton; Aranson, Igor S.; Bertin, Eric; Ginelli, Francesco; Chaté, Hugues

2014-07-01

We show that dry active nematics, e.g., collections of shaken elongated granular particles, exhibit large-scale spatiotemporal chaos made of interacting dense, ordered, bandlike structures in a parameter region including the linear onset of nematic order. These results are obtained from the study of both the well-known (deterministic) hydrodynamic equations describing these systems and of the self-propelled particle model they were derived from. We prove, in particular, that the chaos stems from the generic instability of the band solution of the hydrodynamic equations. Revisiting the status of the strong fluctuations and long-range correlations in the particle model, we show that the giant number fluctuations observed in the chaotic phase are a trivial consequence of density segregation. However anomalous, curvature-driven number fluctuations are present in the homogeneous quasiordered nematic phase and characterized by a nontrivial scaling exponent.

Macroscopic response to microscopic intrinsic noise in three-dimensional Fisher fronts.

PubMed

Nesic, S; Cuerno, R; Moro, E

2014-10-31

We study the dynamics of three-dimensional Fisher fronts in the presence of density fluctuations. To this end we simulate the Fisher equation subject to stochastic internal noise, and study how the front moves and roughens as a function of the number of particles in the system, N. Our results suggest that the macroscopic behavior of the system is driven by the microscopic dynamics at its leading edge where number fluctuations are dominated by rare events. Contrary to naive expectations, the strength of front fluctuations decays extremely slowly as 1/logN, inducing large-scale fluctuations which we find belong to the one-dimensional Kardar-Parisi-Zhang universality class of kinetically rough interfaces. Hence, we find that there is no weak-noise regime for Fisher fronts, even for realistic numbers of particles in macroscopic systems.

Land Use Compounds Habitat Losses under Projected Climate Change in a Threatened California Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Riordan, Erin Coulter; Rundel, Philip W.

2014-01-01

Given the rapidly growing human population in mediterranean-climate systems, land use may pose a more immediate threat to biodiversity than climate change this century, yet few studies address the relative future impacts of both drivers. We assess spatial and temporal patterns of projected 21st century land use and climate change on California sage scrub (CSS), a plant association of considerable diversity and threatened status in the mediterranean-climate California Floristic Province. Using a species distribution modeling approach combined with spatially-explicit land use projections, we model habitat loss for 20 dominant shrub species under unlimited and no dispersal scenarios at two time intervals (early and late century) in two ecoregions in California (Central Coast and South Coast). Overall, projected climate change impacts were highly variable across CSS species and heavily dependent on dispersal assumptions. Projected anthropogenic land use drove greater relative habitat losses compared to projected climate change in many species. This pattern was only significant under assumptions of unlimited dispersal, however, where considerable climate-driven habitat gains offset some concurrent climate-driven habitat losses. Additionally, some of the habitat gained with projected climate change overlapped with projected land use. Most species showed potential northern habitat expansion and southern habitat contraction due to projected climate change, resulting in sharply contrasting patterns of impact between Central and South Coast Ecoregions. In the Central Coast, dispersal could play an important role moderating losses from both climate change and land use. In contrast, high geographic overlap in habitat losses driven by projected climate change and projected land use in the South Coast underscores the potential for compounding negative impacts of both drivers. Limiting habitat conversion may be a broadly beneficial strategy under climate change. We emphasize the importance of addressing both drivers in conservation and resource management planning. PMID:24466116

Numerical studies of surface tensions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hung, R. J.

1995-01-01

Liquid-vapor (bubble) interface disturbances caused by various types of accelerations, including centrifugal, lateral and axial impulses, gravity gradient and g-jitter accelerations associated with spinning and slew motion in microgravity, are reviewed. Understanding of bubble deformations and fluctuations is important in the development of spacecraft orbital and attitude control techniques to secure its normal operation. This review discusses bubble deformations and oscillations driven by various forces in the microgravity environment. The corresponding bubble mass center fluctuations and slosh reaction forces and torques due to bubble deformations are also reviewed.

Langmuir turbulence driven by beams in solar wind plasmas with long wavelength density fluctuations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krafft, C., E-mail: catherine.krafft@u-psud.fr; Universite´ Paris Sud, 91405 Orsay Cedex; Volokitin, A., E-mail: a.volokitin@mail.ru

2016-03-25

The self-consistent evolution of Langmuir turbulence generated by electron beams in solar wind plasmas with density inhomogeneities is calculated by numerical simulations based on a 1D Hamiltonian model. It is shown, owing to numerical simulations performed with parameters relevant to type III solar bursts’ conditions at 1 AU, that the presence of long-wavelength random density fluctuations of sufficiently large average level crucially modifies the well-known process of beam interaction with Langmuir waves in homogeneous plasmas.

Climate variability drives population cycling and synchrony

Treesearch

Lars Y. Pomara; Benjamin Zuckerberg

2017-01-01

Aim There is mounting concern that climate change will lead to the collapse of cyclic population dynamics, yet the influence of climate variability on population cycling remains poorly understood. We hypothesized that variability in survival and fecundity, driven by climate variability at different points in the life cycle, scales up from...

Non-classical light generated by quantum-noise-driven cavity optomechanics.

PubMed

Brooks, Daniel W C; Botter, Thierry; Schreppler, Sydney; Purdy, Thomas P; Brahms, Nathan; Stamper-Kurn, Dan M

2012-08-23

Optomechanical systems, in which light drives and is affected by the motion of a massive object, will comprise a new framework for nonlinear quantum optics, with applications ranging from the storage and transduction of quantum information to enhanced detection sensitivity in gravitational wave detectors. However, quantum optical effects in optomechanical systems have remained obscure, because their detection requires the object’s motion to be dominated by vacuum fluctuations in the optical radiation pressure; so far, direct observations have been stymied by technical and thermal noise. Here we report an implementation of cavity optomechanics using ultracold atoms in which the collective atomic motion is dominantly driven by quantum fluctuations in radiation pressure. The back-action of this motion onto the cavity light field produces ponderomotive squeezing. We detect this quantum phenomenon by measuring sub-shot-noise optical squeezing. Furthermore, the system acts as a low-power, high-gain, nonlinear parametric amplifier for optical fluctuations, demonstrating a gain of 20 dB with a pump corresponding to an average of only seven intracavity photons. These findings may pave the way for low-power quantum optical devices, surpassing quantum limits on position and force sensing, and the control and measurement of motion in quantum gases.

Dwelling quietly in the rich club: brain network determinants of slow cortical fluctuations

PubMed Central

Gollo, Leonardo L.; Zalesky, Andrew; Hutchison, R. Matthew; van den Heuvel, Martijn; Breakspear, Michael

2015-01-01

For more than a century, cerebral cartography has been driven by investigations of structural and morphological properties of the brain across spatial scales and the temporal/functional phenomena that emerge from these underlying features. The next era of brain mapping will be driven by studies that consider both of these components of brain organization simultaneously—elucidating their interactions and dependencies. Using this guiding principle, we explored the origin of slowly fluctuating patterns of synchronization within the topological core of brain regions known as the rich club, implicated in the regulation of mood and introspection. We find that a constellation of densely interconnected regions that constitute the rich club (including the anterior insula, amygdala and precuneus) play a central role in promoting a stable, dynamical core of spontaneous activity in the primate cortex. The slow timescales are well matched to the regulation of internal visceral states, corresponding to the somatic correlates of mood and anxiety. In contrast, the topology of the surrounding ‘feeder’ cortical regions shows unstable, rapidly fluctuating dynamics likely to be crucial for fast perceptual processes. We discuss these findings in relation to psychiatric disorders and the future of connectomics. PMID:25823864

Gradient Driven Fluctuations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cannell, David

2005-01-01

We have worked with our collaborators at the University of Milan (Professor Marzio Giglio and his group-supported by ASI) to define the science required to measure gradient driven fluctuations in the microgravity environment. Such a study would provide an accurate test of the extent to which the theory of fluctuating hydrodynamics can be used to predict the properties of fluids maintained in a stressed, non-equilibrium state. As mentioned above, the results should also provide direct visual insight into the behavior of a variety of fluid systems containing gradients or interfaces, when placed in the microgravity environment. With support from the current grant, we have identified three key systems for detailed investigation. These three systems are: 1) A single-component fluid to be studied in the presence of a temperature gradient; 2) A mixture of two organic liquids to be studied both in the presence of a temperature gradient, which induces a steady-state concentration gradient, and with the temperature gradient removed, but while the concentration gradient is dying by means of diffusion; 3) Various pairs of liquids undergoing free diffusion, including a proteidbuffer solution and pairs of mixtures having different concentrations, to allow us to vary the differences in fluid properties in a controlled manner.

Fluctuating hydrodynamics and microrheology of a dilute suspension of swimming bacteria.

PubMed

Lau, A W C; Lubensky, T C

2009-07-01

A bacterial bath is a model active system consisting of a population of rodlike motile or self-propelled bacteria suspended in a fluid environment. This system can be viewed as an active, nonequilibrium version of a lyotropic liquid crystal or as a generalization of a driven diffusive system. We derive a set of phenomenological equations, which include the effects of internal force generators in the bacteria, describing the hydrodynamic flow, orientational dynamics of the bacteria, and fluctuations induced by both thermal and nonthermal noises. These equations violate the fluctuation dissipation theorem and the Onsager reciprocity relations. We use them to provide a quantitative account of results from recent microrheological experiments on bacterial baths.

Transport behaviors of locally fractional coupled Brownian motors with fluctuating interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huiqi; Ni, Feixiang; Lin, Lifeng; Lv, Wangyong; Zhu, Hongqiang

2018-09-01

In some complex viscoelastic mediums, it is ubiquitous that absorbing and desorbing surrounding Brownian particles randomly occur in coupled systems. The conventional method is to model a variable-mass system driven by both multiplicative and additive noises. In this paper, an improved mathematical model is created based on generalized Langevin equations (GLE) to characterize the random interaction with locally fluctuating number of coupled particles in the elastically coupled factional Brownian motors (FBM). By the numerical simulations, the effect of fluctuating interactions on collective transport behaviors is investigated, and some abnormal phenomena, such as cooperative behaviors, stochastic resonance (SR) and anomalous transport, are observed in the regime of sub-diffusion.

Time-dependent perpendicular fluctuations in the driven lattice Lorentz gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leitmann, Sebastian; Schwab, Thomas; Franosch, Thomas

2018-02-01

We present results for the fluctuations of the displacement of a tracer particle on a planar lattice pulled by a step force in the presence of impenetrable, immobile obstacles. The fluctuations perpendicular to the applied force are evaluated exactly in first order of the obstacle density for arbitrarily strong pulling and all times. The complex time-dependent behavior is analyzed in terms of the diffusion coefficient, local exponent, and the non-Skellam parameter, which quantifies deviations from the dynamics on the lattice in the absence of obstacles. The non-Skellam parameter along the force is analyzed in terms of an asymptotic model and reveals a power-law growth for intermediate times.

Physiological-based modelling of marine fish early life stages provides process knowledge on climate impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peck, M. A.

2016-02-01

Gaining a cause-and-effect understanding of climate-driven changes in marine fish populations at appropriate spatial scales is important for providing robust advice for ecosystem-based fisheries management. Coupling long-term, retrospective analyses and 3-d biophysical, individual-based models (IBMs) shows great potential to reveal mechanism underlying historical changes and to project future changes in marine fishes. IBMs created for marine fish early life stages integrate organismal-level physiological responses and climate-driven changes in marine habitats (from ocean physics to lower trophic level productivity) to test and reveal processes affecting marine fish recruitment. Case studies are provided for hindcasts and future (A1 and B2 projection) simulations performed on some of the most ecologically- and commercially-important pelagic and demersal fishes in the North Sea including European anchovy, Atlantic herring, European sprat and Atlantic cod. We discuss the utility of coupling biophysical IBMs to size-spectrum models to better project indirect (trophodynamic) pathways of climate influence on the early life stages of these and other fishes. Opportunities and challenges are discussed regarding the ability of these physiological-based tools to capture climate-driven changes in living marine resources and food web dynamics of shelf seas.

Global peatland initiation driven by regionally asynchronous warming.

PubMed

Morris, Paul J; Swindles, Graeme T; Valdes, Paul J; Ivanovic, Ruza F; Gregoire, Lauren J; Smith, Mark W; Tarasov, Lev; Haywood, Alan M; Bacon, Karen L

2018-05-08

Widespread establishment of peatlands since the Last Glacial Maximum represents the activation of a globally important carbon sink, but the drivers of peat initiation are unclear. The role of climate in peat initiation is particularly poorly understood. We used a general circulation model to simulate local changes in climate during the initiation of 1,097 peatlands around the world. We find that peat initiation in deglaciated landscapes in both hemispheres was driven primarily by warming growing seasons, likely through enhanced plant productivity, rather than by any increase in effective precipitation. In Western Siberia, which remained ice-free throughout the last glacial period, the initiation of the world's largest peatland complex was globally unique in that it was triggered by an increase in effective precipitation that inhibited soil respiration and allowed wetland plant communities to establish. Peat initiation in the tropics was only weakly related to climate change, and appears to have been driven primarily by nonclimatic mechanisms such as waterlogging due to tectonic subsidence. Our findings shed light on the genesis and Holocene climate space of one of the world's most carbon-dense ecosystem types, with implications for understanding trajectories of ecological change under changing future climates.

Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

PubMed

Fogarty, Hannah E; Burrows, Michael T; Pecl, Gretta T; Robinson, Lucy M; Poloczanska, Elvira S

2017-05-01

Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether 'first sightings' of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate-driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50-year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i.e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate 'source' regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), 'corridor' regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and 'sink' regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species' thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and 'divergent' regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer-term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate-driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range-shifting species before they potentially colonize. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A real-time Global Warming Index.

PubMed

Haustein, K; Allen, M R; Forster, P M; Otto, F E L; Mitchell, D M; Matthews, H D; Frame, D J

2017-11-13

We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.

Nuclear quantum fluctuations in ice I(h).

PubMed

Moreira, Pedro Augusto Franco Pinheiro; de Koning, Maurice

2015-10-14

We discuss the role of nuclear quantum fluctuations in ice Ih, focusing on the hydrogen-bond (HB) structure and the molecular dipole-moment distribution. For this purpose we carry out DFT-based first-principles molecular dynamics and path-integral molecular dynamics simulations at T = 100 K. We analyze the HB structure in terms of a set of parameters previously employed to characterize molecular structures in the liquid phase and compute the molecular dipole moments using the maximally-localized Wannier functions. The results show that the protons experience very large digressions driven by quantum fluctuations, accompanied by major rearrangements in the electronic density. As a result of these protonic quantum fluctuations the molecular dipole-moment distribution is substantially broadened as well as shifted to a larger mean value when compared to the results obtained when such fluctuations are neglected. In terms of dielectric constants, the reconciliation between the greater mean dipole moment and experimental indications that the dielectric constant of H2O ice is lower than that of D2O ice would indicate that the topology of the HB network is sensitive to protonic quantum fluctuations.

Fluctuation driven EMFs in the Madison Dynamo Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, Elliot; Brown, Ben; Clark, Mike; Nornberg, Mark; Rahbarnia, Kian; Rasmus, Alex; Taylor, Zane; Forest, Cary

2013-04-01

The Madison Dynamo Experiment is a 1 m diameter sphere filled with liquid Sodium designed to study MHD in a simply connected geometry. Two impellers drive a two-vortex flow, based on the calculations of Dudley and James, intended to excite system-scale dynamo instability. We present a collection of results from experiments measuring hydrodynamic fluctuations and their MHD effects. An equatorial baffle was added to the experiment in order to diminish the large-eddy hydrodynamic fluctuations by stabilizing the shear layer between the two counter-rotating flow cells. The change in the fluctuation levels was inferred from the change in the spatial spectrum of the induced magnetic field. This reduction correlated with a 2.4 times increase in the induced toroidal magnetic field (a proxy measure of the effective resistivity). Furthermore, the local velocity fluctuations were directly measured by the addition of a 3-d emf probe (a strong permanent magnet inserted into the flow with electrical leads to measure the induced voltage, and magnetic probes to determine the magnetic fluctuations). The measured emfs are consistent with the enhanced magnetic diffusivity interpretation of mean-field MHD.

Direct numerical simulation of turbulence in injection-driven plane channel flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venugopal, Prem; Moser, Robert D.; Najjar, Fady M.

2008-10-01

Compressible turbulent flow in a periodic plane channel with mass injecting walls is studied as a simplified model for core flow in a solid-propellant rocket motor with homogeneous propellant and other injection-driven internal flows. In this model problem, the streamwise direction was asymptotically homogenized by assuming that at large distances from the closed end, both the mean and rms of turbulent fluctuations evolve slowly in the streamwise direction when compared to the turbulent fluctuations themselves. The Navier-Stokes equations were then modified to account for this slow growth. A direct numerical simulation of the homogenized compressible injection-driven turbulent flow was then conducted for conditions occurring at a streamwise location situated 40 channel half-widths from the closed off end and at an injection Reynolds number of approximately 190. The turbulence in this model flow was found to be only weakly compressible, although significant compressibility existed in the mean flow. As in nontranspired channels, turbulence resulted in increased near-wall shear for the mean streamwise velocity. When normalized by the average rate of turbulence production, the magnitudes of near-wall velocity fluctuations were similar to those in the log region of nontranspired wall-bounded turbulence. However, the sharp peak in streamwise velocity fluctuations observed in nontranspired channels was absent. While streaks and inclined vortices were observed in the near-wall region, their structure was very similar to those observed in the log region of nontranspired channels. These differences are attributed to the absence of a viscous sublayer in the transpired case which in turn is the result of the fact that the no-slip condition for the transpired case is an inviscid boundary condition. That is, unlike nontranspired walls, with transpiration, zero tangential velocity boundary conditions can be imposed at the wall for the Euler (inviscid) equations. The results of this study have important implications on the ability of turbulence models to predict this flow.

Drivers of climate change impacts on bird communities.

PubMed

Pearce-Higgins, James W; Eglington, Sarah M; Martay, Blaise; Chamberlain, Dan E

2015-07-01

Climate change is reported to have caused widespread changes to species' populations and ecological communities. Warming has been associated with population declines in long-distance migrants and habitat specialists, and increases in southerly distributed species. However, the specific climatic drivers behind these changes remain undescribed. We analysed annual fluctuations in the abundance of 59 breeding bird species in England over 45 years to test the effect of monthly temperature and precipitation means upon population trends. Strong positive correlations between population growth and both winter and breeding season temperature were identified for resident and short-distance migrants. Lagged correlations between population growth and summer temperature and precipitation identified for the first time a widespread negative impact of hot, dry summer weather. Resident populations appeared to increase following wet autumns. Populations of long-distance migrants were negatively affected by May temperature, consistent with a potential negative effect of phenological mismatch upon breeding success. There was evidence for some nonlinear relationships between monthly weather variables and population growth. Habitat specialists and cold-associated species showed consistently more negative effects of higher temperatures than habitat generalists and southerly distributed species associated with warm temperatures. Results suggest that previously reported changes in community composition represent the accumulated effects of spring and summer warming. Long-term population trends were more significantly correlated with species' sensitivity to temperature than precipitation, suggesting that warming has had a greater impact on population trends than changes in precipitation. Months where there had been the greatest warming were the most influential drivers of long-term change. There was also evidence that species with the greatest sensitivity to extremes of precipitation have tended to decline. Our results provide novel insights about the impact of climate change on bird communities. Significant lagged effects highlight the potential for altered species' interactions to drive observed climate change impacts, although some community changes may have been driven by more immediate responses to warming. In England, resident and short-distance migrant populations have increased in response to climate change, but potentially at the expense of long-distance migrants, habitat specialists and cold-associated species. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

The weather and Climate: emergent laws and multifractal cascades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, S.

2016-12-01

In the atmosphere, nonlinear terms are typically about a trillion times larger than linear ones; we anticipate the emergence of high level turbulence laws. The classical turbulence laws were restricted to homogeneous and isotropic systems; to apply them to the atmosphere they must be generalized to account for strong anisotropy (especially stratification) and variability (intermittency). Over the last 30 years, using scaling symmetry principles and multifractal cascades, this has been done. While hitherto they were believed applicable only up to ≈ 100 m, (generalized) turbulence laws now anisotropic and multifractal, they cover spatial scales up planetary in extent and in time well beyond weather scales to include the climate. These higher level laws are stochastic in nature and provide the theoretical basis both for stochastic parametrizations as well as stochastic forecasting. In the time domain the emergent laws for fluctuations DT (for example in temperature T) have means T > ≈ DtH i.e. they are scaling (power laws) in the time interval Dt. We find find exponents H>0 (fluctuations increase with scale) up to ≈ Dt ≈10 days (the lifetime of planetary scale structures, the analogous transition in the ocean is at Dt ≈ 1 year on Mars it is Dt ≈ 2 sols). At larger Dt, there is a transition to a new "macroweather" regime with H<0: successive fluctuations tend cancel each; at Dt >≈30 years (anthropocene; larger in the pre-industrial epoch), new climate processes begin to dominate, leading to H>0. "The climate is what you expect, the weather is what you get": the climate is thought to be a kind of "average weather". However this "expected" behavior is macroweather, not the climate. On the contrary, the climate is the new even lower frequency regime at scales Dt> 30 yrs and it has statistical properties very similar to the weather. At these scales, "macroweather is what you expect, the climate is what you get". The scaling in the macroweather regime implies that there is a long-term memory. We show how the memory can be exploited for more accurate monthly, seasonal, interannual and decadal forecasts. For a review, see Lovejoy, S., D. Schertzer, 2013: The weather and Climate: emergent laws and multifractal cascades, 496pp, Cambridge U. Press.

Harvesting electrical energy from torsional thermal actuation driven by natural convection.

PubMed

Kim, Shi Hyeong; Sim, Hyeon Jun; Hyeon, Jae Sang; Suh, Dongseok; Spinks, Geoffrey M; Baughman, Ray H; Kim, Seon Jeong

2018-06-07

The development of practical, cost-effective systems for the conversion of low-grade waste heat to electrical energy is an important area of renewable energy research. We here demonstrate a thermal energy harvester that is driven by the small temperature fluctuations provided by natural convection. This harvester uses coiled yarn artificial muscles, comprising well-aligned shape memory polyurethane (SMPU) microfibers, to convert thermal energy to torsional mechanical energy, which is then electromagnetically converted to electrical energy. Temperature fluctuations in a yarn muscle, having a maximum hot-to-cold temperature difference of about 13 °C, were used to spin a magnetic rotor to a peak torsional rotation speed of 3,000 rpm. The electromagnetic energy generator converted the torsional energy to electrical energy, thereby producing an oscillating output voltage of up to 0.81 V and peak power of 4 W/kg, based on SMPU mass.

Effects of eddy viscosity and thermal conduction and Coriolis force in the dynamics of gravity wave driven fluctuations in the OH nightglow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hickey, M. P.

1988-01-01

The chemical-dynamical model of Walterscheid et al. (1987), which describes wave-driven fluctuations in OH nightglow, was modified to include the effects of both eddy thermal conduction and viscosity, as well as the Coriolis force (with the shallow atmosphere approximation). Using the new model, calculations were performed for the same nominal case as used by Walterscheid et al. but with only wave periods considered. For this case, the Coriolis force was found to be unimportant at any wave period. For wave periods greater than 2 or 3 hours, the inclusion of thermal conduction alone greatly modified the results (in terms of a complex ratio 'eta' which expresses the relationship between the intensity oscillation about the time-averaged intensity and the temperature oscillation about the time-averaged temperature); this effect was reduced with the further inclusion of the eddy viscosity.

Non-Equlibrium Driven Dynamics of Continuous Attractors in Place Cell Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Weishun; Kim, Hyun Jin; Schwab, David; Murugan, Arvind

Attractors have found much use in neuroscience as a means of information processing and decision making. Examples include associative memory with point and continuous attractors, spatial navigation and planning using place cell networks, dynamic pattern recognition among others. The functional use of such attractors requires the action of spatially and temporally varying external driving signals and yet, most theoretical work on attractors has been in the limit of small or no drive. We take steps towards understanding the non-equilibrium driven dynamics of continuous attractors in place cell networks. We establish an `equivalence principle' that relates fluctuations under a time-dependent external force to equilibrium fluctuations in a `co-moving' frame with only static forces, much like in Newtonian physics. Consequently, we analytically derive a network's capacity to encode multiple attractors as a function of the driving signal size and rate of change.

A Concept of Cross-Ferroic Plasma Turbulence

PubMed Central

Inagaki, S.; Kobayashi, T.; Kosuga, Y.; Itoh, S.-I.; Mitsuzono, T.; Nagashima, Y.; Arakawa, H.; Yamada, T.; Miwa, Y.; Kasuya, N.; Sasaki, M.; Lesur, M.; Fujisawa, A.; Itoh, K.

2016-01-01

The variety of scalar and vector fields in laboratory and nature plasmas is formed by plasma turbulence. Drift-wave fluctuations, driven by density gradients in magnetized plasmas, are known to relax the density gradient while they can generate flows. On the other hand, the sheared flow in the direction of magnetic fields causes Kelvin-Helmholtz type instabilities, which mix particle and momentum. These different types of fluctuations coexist in laboratory and nature, so that the multiple mechanisms for structural formation exist in extremely non-equilibrium plasmas. Here we report the discovery of a new order in plasma turbulence, in which chained structure formation is realized by cross-interaction between inhomogeneities of scalar and vector fields. The concept of cross-ferroic turbulence is developed, and the causal relation in the multiple mechanisms behind structural formation is identified, by measuring the relaxation rate and dissipation power caused by the complex turbulence-driven flux. PMID:26917218

Nonequilibrium thermodynamics and a fluctuation theorem for individual reaction steps in a chemical reaction network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Krishnendu; Das, Biswajit; Banerjee, Kinshuk; Gangopadhyay, Gautam

2015-09-01

We have introduced an approach to nonequilibrium thermodynamics of an open chemical reaction network in terms of the propensities of the individual elementary reactions and the corresponding reverse reactions. The method is a microscopic formulation of the dissipation function in terms of the relative entropy or Kullback-Leibler distance which is based on the analogy of phase space trajectory with the path of elementary reactions in a network of chemical process. We have introduced here a fluctuation theorem valid for each opposite pair of elementary reactions which is useful in determining the contribution of each sub-reaction on the nonequilibrium thermodynamics of overall reaction. The methodology is applied to an oligomeric enzyme kinetics at a chemiostatic condition that leads the reaction to a nonequilibrium steady state for which we have estimated how each step of the reaction is energy driven or entropy driven to contribute to the overall reaction.

Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being.

PubMed

Pecl, Gretta T; Araújo, Miguel B; Bell, Johann D; Blanchard, Julia; Bonebrake, Timothy C; Chen, I-Ching; Clark, Timothy D; Colwell, Robert K; Danielsen, Finn; Evengård, Birgitta; Falconi, Lorena; Ferrier, Simon; Frusher, Stewart; Garcia, Raquel A; Griffis, Roger B; Hobday, Alistair J; Janion-Scheepers, Charlene; Jarzyna, Marta A; Jennings, Sarah; Lenoir, Jonathan; Linnetved, Hlif I; Martin, Victoria Y; McCormack, Phillipa C; McDonald, Jan; Mitchell, Nicola J; Mustonen, Tero; Pandolfi, John M; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Popova, Ekaterina; Robinson, Sharon A; Scheffers, Brett R; Shaw, Justine D; Sorte, Cascade J B; Strugnell, Jan M; Sunday, Jennifer M; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Vergés, Adriana; Villanueva, Cecilia; Wernberg, Thomas; Wapstra, Erik; Williams, Stephen E

2017-03-31

Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

2013-04-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high-end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real-world climate-sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the upper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present-day observables and future changes, while the large spread of future-projected changes highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Magnetic fluctuations driven insulator-to-metal transition in Ca(Ir1−xRux)O3

PubMed Central

Gunasekera, J.; Harriger, L.; Dahal, A.; Heitmann, T.; Vignale, G.; Singh, D. K.

2015-01-01

Magnetic fluctuations in transition metal oxides are a subject of intensive research because of the key role they are expected to play in the transition from the Mott insulator to the unconventional metallic phase of these materials, and also as drivers of superconductivity. Despite much effort, a clear link between magnetic fluctuations and the insulator-to-metal transition has not yet been established. Here we report the discovery of a compelling link between magnetic fluctuations and the insulator-to-metal transition in Ca(Ir1−xRux)O3 perovskites as a function of the substitution coefficient x. We show that when the material turns from insulator to metal, at a critical value of x ~ 0.3, magnetic fluctuations tend to change their character from antiferromagnetic, a Mott insulator phase, to ferromagnetic, an itinerant electron state with Hund’s orbital coupling. These results are expected to have wide-ranging implications for our understanding of the unconventional properties of strongly correlated electrons systems. PMID:26647965

Magnetic fluctuations driven insulator-to-metal transition in Ca(Ir(1-x)Rux)O3.

PubMed

Gunasekera, J; Harriger, L; Dahal, A; Heitmann, T; Vignale, G; Singh, D K

2015-12-09

Magnetic fluctuations in transition metal oxides are a subject of intensive research because of the key role they are expected to play in the transition from the Mott insulator to the unconventional metallic phase of these materials, and also as drivers of superconductivity. Despite much effort, a clear link between magnetic fluctuations and the insulator-to-metal transition has not yet been established. Here we report the discovery of a compelling link between magnetic fluctuations and the insulator-to-metal transition in Ca(Ir1-xRux)O3 perovskites as a function of the substitution coefficient x. We show that when the material turns from insulator to metal, at a critical value of x ~ 0.3, magnetic fluctuations tend to change their character from antiferromagnetic, a Mott insulator phase, to ferromagnetic, an itinerant electron state with Hund's orbital coupling. These results are expected to have wide-ranging implications for our understanding of the unconventional properties of strongly correlated electrons systems.