Future soil moisture and temperature extremes imply expanding suitability for rainfed agriculture in temperate drylands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jia, Gensuo; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Munson, Seth M.; Wilson, Scott D.; Tietjen, Britta

2017-01-01

The distribution of rainfed agriculture is expected to respond to climate change and human population growth. However, conditions that support rainfed agriculture are driven by interactions among climate, including climate extremes, and soil moisture availability that have not been well defined. In the temperate regions that support much of the world’s agriculture, these interactions are complicated by seasonal temperature fluctuations that can decouple climate and soil moisture. Here, we show that suitability to support rainfed agriculture can be effectively represented by the interactive effects of just two variables: suitability increases where warm conditions occur with wet soil, and suitability decreases with extreme high temperatures. 21st century projections based on ecohydrological modeling of downscaled climate forecasts imply geographic shifts and overall increases in the area suitable for rainfed agriculture in temperate regions, especially at high latitudes, and pronounced, albeit less widespread, declines in suitable areas in low latitude drylands, especially in Europe. These results quantify the integrative direct and indirect impact of rising temperatures on rainfed agriculture.

Is Switzerland Suitable for the Invasion of Aedes albopictus?

PubMed Central

Neteler, Markus; Metz, Markus; Rocchini, Duccio; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Flacio, Eleonora; Engeler, Luca; Guidi, Valeria; Lüthy, Peter; Tonolla, Mauro

2013-01-01

Background Over the last 30 years, the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, has rapidly spread around the world. The European distribution comprises the Mediterranean basin with a first appearance in Switzerland in 2003. Early identification of the most suitable areas in Switzerland allowing progressive invasion by this species is considered crucial to suggest adequate surveillance and control plans. Methodology/Principal Findings We identified the most suitable areas for invasion and establishment of Ae. albopictus in Switzerland. The potential distribution areas linked to the current climatic suitability were assessed using remotely sensed land surface temperature data recorded by the MODIS satellite sensors. Suitable areas for adult survival and overwintering of diapausing eggs were also identified for future climatic conditions, considering two different climate change scenarios (A1B, A2) for the periods 2020–2049 and 2045–2074. At present, the areas around Lake Geneva in western Switzerland provide suitable climatic conditions for Ae. albopictus. In northern Switzerland, parts of the Rhine valley, around Lake Constance, as well as the surroundings of Lake Neuchâtel, appear to be suitable for the survival at least of adult Ae. albopictus. However, these areas are characterized by winters currently being too cold for survival and development of diapausing eggs. In southern Switzerland, Ae. albopictus is already well-established, especially in the Canton of Ticino. For the years 2020–2049, the predicted possible spread of the tiger mosquito does not differ significantly from its potential current distribution. However, important expansions are obtained if the period is extended to the years 2045–2074, when Ae. albopictus may invade large new areas. Conclusions/Significance Several parts of Switzerland provide suitable climatic conditions for invasion and establishment of Ae. albopictus. The current distribution and rapid spread in other European countries suggest that the tiger mosquito will colonize new areas in Switzerland in the near future. PMID:24349190

Is Switzerland suitable for the invasion of Aedes albopictus [corrected]?

PubMed

Neteler, Markus; Metz, Markus; Rocchini, Duccio; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Flacio, Eleonora; Engeler, Luca; Guidi, Valeria; Lüthy, Peter; Tonolla, Mauro

2013-01-01

Over the last 30 years, the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, has rapidly spread around the world. The European distribution comprises the Mediterranean basin with a first appearance in Switzerland in 2003. Early identification of the most suitable areas in Switzerland allowing progressive invasion by this species is considered crucial to suggest adequate surveillance and control plans. We identified the most suitable areas for invasion and establishment of Ae. albopictus in Switzerland. The potential distribution areas linked to the current climatic suitability were assessed using remotely sensed land surface temperature data recorded by the MODIS satellite sensors. Suitable areas for adult survival and overwintering of diapausing eggs were also identified for future climatic conditions, considering two different climate change scenarios (A1B, A2) for the periods 2020-2049 and 2045-2074. At present, the areas around Lake Geneva in western Switzerland provide suitable climatic conditions for Ae. albopictus. In northern Switzerland, parts of the Rhine valley, around Lake Constance, as well as the surroundings of Lake Neuchâtel, appear to be suitable for the survival at least of adult Ae. albopictus. However, these areas are characterized by winters currently being too cold for survival and development of diapausing eggs. In southern Switzerland, Ae. albopictus is already well-established, especially in the Canton of Ticino. For the years 2020-2049, the predicted possible spread of the tiger mosquito does not differ significantly from its potential current distribution. However, important expansions are obtained if the period is extended to the years 2045-2074, when Ae. albopictus may invade large new areas. Several parts of Switzerland provide suitable climatic conditions for invasion and establishment of Ae. albopictus. The current distribution and rapid spread in other European countries suggest that the tiger mosquito will colonize new areas in Switzerland in the near future.

Effects of climate change on suitable rice cropping areas, cropping systems and crop water requirements in southern China

DOE PAGES

Ye, Qing; Yang, Xiaoguang; Dai, Shuwei; ...

2015-06-05

Here, we discuss that rice is one of the main crops grown in southern China. Global climate change has significantly altered the local water availability and temperature regime for rice production. In this study, we explored the influence of climate change on suitable rice cropping areas, rice cropping systems and crop water requirements (CWRs) during the growing season for historical (from 1951 to 2010) and future (from 2011 to 2100) time periods. The results indicated that the land areas suitable for rice cropping systems shifted northward and westward from 1951 to 2100 but with different amplitudes.

Climate Influence on Emerging Risk Areas for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Tanzania.

PubMed

Mweya, Clement N; Mboera, Leonard E G; Kimera, Sharadhuli I

2017-07-01

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a climate-related arboviral infection of animals and humans. Climate is thought to represent a threat toward emerging risk areas for RVF epidemics globally. The objective of this study was to evaluate influence of climate on distribution of suitable breeding habitats for Culex pipiens complex, potential mosquito vector responsible for transmission and distribution of disease epidemics risk areas in Tanzania. We used ecological niche models to estimate potential distribution of disease risk areas based on vectors and disease co-occurrence data approach. Climatic variables for the current and future scenarios were used as model inputs. Changes in mosquito vectors' habitat suitability in relation to disease risk areas were estimated. We used partial receiver operating characteristic and the area under the curves approach to evaluate model predictive performance and significance. Habitat suitability for Cx. pipiens complex indicated broad-scale potential for change and shift in the distribution of the vectors and disease for both 2020 and 2050 climatic scenarios. Risk areas indicated more intensification in the areas surrounding Lake Victoria and northeastern part of the country through 2050 climate scenario. Models show higher probability of emerging risk areas spreading toward the western parts of Tanzania from northeastern areas and decrease in the southern part of the country. Results presented here identified sites for consideration to guide surveillance and control interventions to reduce risk of RVF disease epidemics in Tanzania. A collaborative approach is recommended to develop and adapt climate-related disease control and prevention strategies.

Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios

PubMed Central

Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J.; Phelps, Nicholas B. D.

2017-01-01

Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species’ suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain. PMID:28704433

Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios.

PubMed

Romero-Alvarez, Daniel; Escobar, Luis E; Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J; Phelps, Nicholas B D

2017-01-01

Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species' suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain.

Mapping Physiological Suitability Limits for Malaria in Africa Under Climate Change.

PubMed

Ryan, Sadie J; McNally, Amy; Johnson, Leah R; Mordecai, Erin A; Ben-Horin, Tal; Paaijmans, Krijn; Lafferty, Kevin D

2015-12-01

We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.

Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryan, Sadie J.; McNally, Amy; Johnson, Leah R.; Mordecai, Erin A.; Ben-Horin, Tal; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Lafferty, Kevin D.

2015-01-01

We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.

Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures

PubMed Central

Friggens, Megan M.; Finch, Deborah M.

2015-01-01

Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy’s warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used to inform the management of species at intermediate scales. PMID:26700871

Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures.

PubMed

Friggens, Megan M; Finch, Deborah M

2015-01-01

Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy's warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used to inform the management of species at intermediate scales.

Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes

PubMed Central

de Blois, Sylvie

2016-01-01

Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range) in Quebec (Canada) rather than opportunities (increase in suitability). Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5–21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies. PMID:27478706

Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes.

PubMed

Périé, Catherine; de Blois, Sylvie

2016-01-01

Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range) in Quebec (Canada) rather than opportunities (increase in suitability). Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5-21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies.

Global-change vulnerability of a key plant resource, the African palms.

PubMed

Blach-Overgaard, Anne; Balslev, Henrik; Dransfield, John; Normand, Signe; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2015-07-27

Palms are keystone species in tropical ecosystems and provide essential ecosystem services to rural people worldwide. However, many palm species are threatened by habitat loss and over-exploitation. Furthermore, palms are sensitive to climate and thus vulnerable to future climate changes. Here, we provide a first quantitative assessment of the future risks to the African palm flora, finding that African palm species on average may experience a decline in climatic suitability in >70% of their current ranges by 2080. This suitability loss may, however, be almost halved if migration to nearby climatically suitable sites succeeds. Worryingly, 42% of the areas with 80-100% of species losing climate suitability are also characterized by high human population density (HPD). By 2080, >90% of all African palm species' ranges will likely occur at HPDs leading to increased risks of habitat loss and overexploitation. Additionally, up to 87% of all species are predicted to lose climatic suitability within current protected areas (PAs) by 2080. In summary, a major plant component of tropical ecosystems and provider of ecosystem services to rural populations will face strongly increased pressures from climate change and human populations in the near future.

Predicting potential global distributions of two Miscanthus grasses: implications for horticulture, biofuel production, and biological invasions.

PubMed

Hager, Heather A; Sinasac, Sarah E; Gedalof, Ze'ev; Newman, Jonathan A

2014-01-01

In many regions, large proportions of the naturalized and invasive non-native floras were originally introduced deliberately by humans. Pest risk assessments are now used in many jurisdictions to regulate the importation of species and usually include an estimation of the potential distribution in the import area. Two species of Asian grass (Miscanthus sacchariflorus and M. sinensis) that were originally introduced to North America as ornamental plants have since escaped cultivation. These species and their hybrid offspring are now receiving attention for large-scale production as biofuel crops in North America and elsewhere. We evaluated their potential global climate suitability for cultivation and potential invasion using the niche model CLIMEX and evaluated the models' sensitivity to the parameter values. We then compared the sensitivity of projections of future climatically suitable area under two climate models and two emissions scenarios. The models indicate that the species have been introduced to most of the potential global climatically suitable areas in the northern but not the southern hemisphere. The more narrowly distributed species (M. sacchariflorus) is more sensitive to changes in model parameters, which could have implications for modelling species of conservation concern. Climate projections indicate likely contractions in potential range in the south, but expansions in the north, particularly in introduced areas where biomass production trials are under way. Climate sensitivity analysis shows that projections differ more between the selected climate change models than between the selected emissions scenarios. Local-scale assessments are required to overlay suitable habitat with climate projections to estimate areas of cultivation potential and invasion risk.

Global decline in suitable habitat for Angiostrongylus ( = Parastrongylus) cantonensis: the role of climate change.

PubMed

York, Emily M; Butler, Christopher J; Lord, Wayne D

2014-01-01

Climate change is implicated in the alteration of the ranges of species worldwide. Such shifts in species distributions may introduce parasites/pathogens, hosts, and vectors associated with disease to new areas. The parasite Angiostrongylus ( = Parastrongylus) cantonensis is an invasive species that causes eosinophilic meningitis in humans and neurological abnormalities in domestic/wild animals. Although native to southeastern Asia, A. cantonensis has now been reported from more than 30 countries worldwide. Given the health risks, it is important to describe areas with potentially favorable climate for the establishment of A. cantonensis, as well as areas where this pathogen might become established in the future. We used the program Maxent to develop an ecological niche model for A. cantonensis based on 86 localities obtained from published literature. We then modeled areas of potential A. cantonensis distribution as well as areas projected to have suitable climatic conditions under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios by the 2050s and the 2070s. The best model contained three bioclimatic variables: mean diurnal temperature range, minimum temperature of coldest month and precipitation of warmest quarter. Potentially suitable habitat for A. cantonensis was located worldwide in tropical and subtropical regions. Under all climate change RCP scenarios, the center of the projected distribution shifted away from the equator at a rate of 68-152 km per decade. However, the extent of areas with highly suitable habitat (>50%) declined by 10.66-15.66% by the 2050s and 13.11-16.11% by the 2070s. These results conflict with previous studies, which have generally found that the prevalence of tropical pathogens will increase during the 21st century. Moreover, it is likely that A. cantonensis will continue to expand its current range in the near future due to introductions and host expansion, whereas climate change will reduce the total geographic area of most suitable climatic conditions during the coming decades.

Suggestions for Forest Conservation Policy under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choe, H.; Thorne, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Seo, C.

2015-12-01

Climate change and the destruction of natural habitats by land-use change are two main factors in decreasing terrestrial biodiversity. Studying land-use and climate change and their impact under different scenarios can help suggest policy directions for future events. This study explores the spatial results of different land use and climate models on the extent of species rich areas in South Korea. We built land use models of forest conversion and created four 2050 scenarios: (1) a loss trend following current levels, resulting in 15.5% lost; (2) similar loss, but with forest conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of forest loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation of forest climate refugia and overall reduction of loss by 50%. Forest climate refugia were identified through the use of species distribution models run on 1,031 forest plant species to project current and 2050 distributions. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections, permitting an assessment of forest refugia zones. We then crossed the four land use models with the climate-driven change in species richness. Forest areas predominantly convert to agricultural areas, while climate-suitable extents for forest plants decline and move northward, especially to higher elevations. Scenario 2, that has the higher level of deforestation but protects future species rich areas, conserves nearly as much future biodiversity as scenario 3, which reduced deforestation rates by 50%. This points to the importance of including biogeographic climate dynamics in forest policy. Scenario 4 was the most effective at conserving forest biodiversity. We suggest conserving forest areas with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of monoculture plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.

Patterns and variability of projected bioclimatic habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area.

PubMed

Chang, Tony; Hansen, Andrew J; Piekielek, Nathan

2014-01-01

Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980-2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2-29% and 0.04-10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010-2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910-2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios.

Patterns and Variability of Projected Bioclimatic Habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area

PubMed Central

Chang, Tony; Hansen, Andrew J.; Piekielek, Nathan

2014-01-01

Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980–2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2–29% and 0.04–10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010–2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910–2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios. PMID:25372719

Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina.

PubMed

Minoli, Ignacio; Avila, Luciano Javier

2017-02-26

The consequences of global climate change can already be seen in many physical and biological systems and these effects could change the distribution of suitable areas for a wide variety of organisms to the middle of this century. We analyzed the current habitat use and we projected the suitable area of present conditions into the geographical space of future scenarios (2050), to assess and quantify whether future climate change would affect the distribution and size of suitable environments in two Pristidactylus lizard species. Comparing the habitat use and future forecasts of the two studied species, P. achalensis showed a more restricted use of available resource units (RUs) and a moderate reduction of the potential future area. On the contrary, P. nigroiugulus uses more available RUs and has a considerable area decrease for both future scenarios. These results suggest that both species have a moderately different trend towards reducing available area of suitable habitats, the persistent localities for both 2050 CO2 concentration models, and in the available RUs used. We discussed the relation between size and use of the current habitat, changes in future projections along with the protected areas from present-future and the usefulness of these results in conservation plans. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in their availability suitable areas as a consequence of the effect of future climate change.

Climate Change and the Potential Distribution of an Invasive Shrub, Lantana camara L

PubMed Central

Taylor, Subhashni; Kumar, Lalit; Reid, Nick; Kriticos, Darren J.

2012-01-01

The threat posed by invasive species, in particular weeds, to biodiversity may be exacerbated by climate change. Lantana camara L. (lantana) is a woody shrub that is highly invasive in many countries of the world. It has a profound economic and environmental impact worldwide, including Australia. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this invasive species under current and future climate will be useful in planning better strategies to manage the invasion. A process-oriented niche model of L. camara was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including phenological observations and geographic distribution records. The potential distribution of lantana under historical climate exceeded the current distribution in some areas of the world, notably Africa and Asia. Under future scenarios, the climatically suitable areas for L. camara globally were projected to contract. However, some areas were identified in North Africa, Europe and Australia that may become climatically suitable under future climates. In South Africa and China, its potential distribution could expand further inland. These results can inform strategic planning by biosecurity agencies, identifying areas to target for eradication or containment. Distribution maps of risk of potential invasion can be useful tools in public awareness campaigns, especially in countries that have been identified as becoming climatically suitable for L. camara under the future climate scenarios. PMID:22536408

Projecting date palm distribution in Iran under climate change using topography, physicochemical soil properties, soil taxonomy, land use, and climate data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni

2014-11-01

This study set out to model potential date palm distribution under current and future climate scenarios using an emission scenario, in conjunction with two different global climate models (GCMs): CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS), and MIROC-H (MR), and to refine results based on suitability under four nonclimatic parameters. Areas containing suitable physicochemical soil properties and suitable soil taxonomy, together with land slopes of less than 10° and suitable land uses for date palm ( Phoenix dactylifera) were selected as appropriate refining tools to ensure the CLIMEX results were accurate and robust. Results showed that large regions of Iran are projected as likely to become climatically suitable for date palm cultivation based on the projected scenarios for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100. The study also showed CLIMEX outputs merit refinement by nonclimatic parameters and that the incremental introduction of each additional parameter decreased the disagreement between GCMs. Furthermore, the study indicated that the least amount of disagreement in terms of areas conducive to date palm cultivation resulted from CS and MR GCMs when the locations of suitable physicochemical soil properties and soil taxonomy were used as refinement tools.

Northern protected areas will become important refuges for biodiversity tracking suitable climates.

PubMed

Berteaux, Dominique; Ricard, Marylène; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues; Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Beauregard, Frieda; de Blois, Sylvie

2018-03-15

The Northern Biodiversity Paradox predicts that, despite its globally negative effects on biodiversity, climate change will increase biodiversity in northern regions where many species are limited by low temperatures. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of a northern network of 1,749 protected areas spread over >600,000 km 2 in Quebec, Canada. Using ecological niche modeling, we calculated potential changes in the probability of occurrence of 529 species to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species gain, loss, turnover, and richness in protected areas, (2) representativity of protected areas, and (3) extent of species ranges located in protected areas. We predict a major species turnover over time, with 49% of total protected land area potentially experiencing a species turnover >80%. We also predict increases in regional species richness, representativity of protected areas, and species protection provided by protected areas. Although we did not model the likelihood of species colonising habitats that become suitable as a result of climate change, northern protected areas should ultimately become important refuges for species tracking climate northward. This is the first study to examine in such details the potential effects of climate change on a northern protected area network.

Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

PubMed

Li, Jia; Liu, Fang; Xue, Yadong; Zhang, Yu; Li, Diqiang

2017-06-01

Climate change might pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ). Effective conservation efforts require projections of vulnerability of the giant panda in facing climate change and proactive strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China. The results of modeling included the following findings: (1) the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281 km 2 from climate change by the 2050s; (2) the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30 m higher due to climate change over this period; (3) the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species, and 59.23% of future suitable habitat; (4) current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu, Taibai, and Yangxian counties (with a total area of 987 km 2 ) was predicted to be vulnerable. Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs and national park construction. We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda, including establishing and adjusting reserves, establishing habitat corridors, improving adaptive capacity to climate change, and strengthening monitoring of giant panda.

Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change

PubMed Central

Guo, Yanlong; Lu, Chunyan; Gao, Bei

2016-01-01

Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs), few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants. Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment for S. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution of S. spenanthera were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera under all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera would gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas for S. sphenanthera when the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of S. sphenanthera and can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants. PMID:27781160

Climate threat on the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora.

PubMed

Patiño, Jairo; Mateo, Rubén G; Zanatta, Florian; Marquet, Adrien; Aranda, Silvia C; Borges, Paulo A V; Dirkse, Gerard; Gabriel, Rosalina; Gonzalez-Mancebo, Juana M; Guisan, Antoine; Muñoz, Jesús; Sim-Sim, Manuela; Vanderpoorten, Alain

2016-07-05

Oceanic islands are of fundamental importance for the conservation of biodiversity because they exhibit high endemism rates coupled with fast extinction rates. Nowhere in Europe is this pattern more conspicuous than in the Macaronesian biogeographic region. A large network of protected areas within the region has been developed, but the question of whether these areas will still be climatically suitable for the globally threatened endemic element in the coming decades remains open. Here, we make predictions on the fate of the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora in the context of ongoing climate change. The potential distribution of 35 Macaronesian endemic bryophyte species was assessed under present and future climate conditions using an ensemble modelling approach. Projections of the models under different climate change scenarios predicted an average decrease of suitable areas of 62-87% per species and a significant elevational increase by 2070, so that even the commonest species were predicted to fit either the Vulnerable or Endangered IUCN categories. Complete extinctions were foreseen for six of the studied Macaronesian endemic species. Given the uncertainty regarding the capacity of endemic species to track areas of suitable climate within and outside the islands, active management associated to an effective monitoring program is suggested.

Climate threat on the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora

PubMed Central

Patiño, Jairo; Mateo, Rubén G.; Zanatta, Florian; Marquet, Adrien; Aranda, Silvia C.; Borges, Paulo A. V.; Dirkse, Gerard; Gabriel, Rosalina; Gonzalez-Mancebo, Juana M.; Guisan, Antoine; Muñoz, Jesús; Sim-Sim, Manuela; Vanderpoorten, Alain

2016-01-01

Oceanic islands are of fundamental importance for the conservation of biodiversity because they exhibit high endemism rates coupled with fast extinction rates. Nowhere in Europe is this pattern more conspicuous than in the Macaronesian biogeographic region. A large network of protected areas within the region has been developed, but the question of whether these areas will still be climatically suitable for the globally threatened endemic element in the coming decades remains open. Here, we make predictions on the fate of the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora in the context of ongoing climate change. The potential distribution of 35 Macaronesian endemic bryophyte species was assessed under present and future climate conditions using an ensemble modelling approach. Projections of the models under different climate change scenarios predicted an average decrease of suitable areas of 62–87% per species and a significant elevational increase by 2070, so that even the commonest species were predicted to fit either the Vulnerable or Endangered IUCN categories. Complete extinctions were foreseen for six of the studied Macaronesian endemic species. Given the uncertainty regarding the capacity of endemic species to track areas of suitable climate within and outside the islands, active management associated to an effective monitoring program is suggested. PMID:27377592

Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stroh, Esther; Struckhoff, Matthew; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.

2018-01-01

using a physical chemistry fire frequency model. We then used the fire probability data with additional climate parameters to construct maximum entropy environmental suitability models for three south central US vegetation communities. The modeled communities included an oak type (dominated by post oak, Quercus stellata Wangenh., and blackjack oak, Q. marilandica Münchh.), a mesquite type (dominated by honey mesquite, Prosopis glandulosa Torr., and velvet mesquite, P. velutina Wooton), and a pinyon−juniper type (dominated by pinyon pine, Pinus edulis Engelm., and Utah juniper, Juniperus osteosperma [Torr.] Little). We mapped baseline and future mean fire-climate suitability using data from three global climate models for 2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099; we also mapped future locations of threshold conditions for which all three models agreed on suitability for each community. Future projections included northward, southward, and eastward shifts in suitable conditions for the oaks along a broad path of fire-climate stability; an overall reduction in suitable area for historic mesquite communities coupled with potential expansion to new areas; and constriction and isolation of suitable conditions for pinyon−juniper communities. The inclusion of fire probability adds an important driver of vegetation distribution to climate envelope modeling. The simple models showed good fit, but future projections failed to account for future management activities or land use changes. Results provided information on potential future de-coupling and spatial re-arrangement of environmental conditions under which these communities have historically persisted and been managed. In particular, consensus threshold maps can inform long-term planning for maintenance or restoration of these communities, and they can be used as a potential tool for other communities in fire-prone environments within the study area and beyond its borders.

Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabré, María Fernanda; Quénol, Hervé; Nuñez, Mario

2016-09-01

Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural regions. It has been concluded that regional climate change simulations are an adequate methodology, and indeed, the MM5 regional model is an appropriate tool to be applied in viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina.

Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina.

PubMed

Cabré, María Fernanda; Quénol, Hervé; Nuñez, Mario

2016-09-01

Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural regions. It has been concluded that regional climate change simulations are an adequate methodology, and indeed, the MM5 regional model is an appropriate tool to be applied in viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina.

[Prediction of the suitable distribution and responses to climate change of Elaeagnus mollis in Shanxi Province, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Yin Bo; Gao, Chen Hong; Qin, Hao

2018-04-01

Understanding the responses of the habitats of endangered species to climate change is of great significance for biodiversity conservation and the maintenance of the integrity of ecosystem function. In this study, the potential suitable distribution habitats of Elaeagnus mollis in Shanxi Province was simulated by the maximum entropy model, based on 73 occurrence field records and 35 environmental factors under the current climate condition. Moreover, with the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the dynamics of distribution pattern was analyzed for E. mollis under different climate scenarios. The results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value was 0.987, indicating that the data fitted the model very well and that the prediction was highly reliable. Results from the Jackknife test showed that the main environmental variables affecting the E. mollis distribution were the precipitation seasonality, the range of annual temperature, annual mean temperature, isothermality, annual precipitation, and pH of topsoil, with the cumulative contribution reaching 94.8%. At present, the potential suitable habitats of E. mollis are mainly located in two regions, the southern of Lyuliang Mountain and Zhongtiao Mountain in Shanxi Province. Under different climate scenarios, the total suitable area of E. mollis would shrink in 2070s. In RCP 2.6 the suitable area would firstly increase and then decrease, while in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 it would response sensitively and first decrease and then increase. Its spatial distribution in two suitable regions would show divergent responses to climate change. The distribution in southern Lyuliang Mountain would fluctuate slightly in latitudinal direction, while that in Zhongtiao Mountain would migrate along elevation.

Mapping past, present, and future climatic suitability for invasive Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in the United States: a process-based modeling approach using CMIP5 downscaled climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnelly, M. A. P.; Marcantonio, M.; Melton, F. S.; Barker, C. M.

2016-12-01

The ongoing spread of the mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, in the continental United States leaves new areas at risk for local transmission of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. All three viruses have caused major disease outbreaks in the Americas with infected travelers returning regularly to the U.S. The expanding range of these mosquitoes raises questions about whether recent spread has been enabled by climate change or other anthropogenic influences. In this analysis, we used downscaled climate scenarios from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX GDDP) dataset to model Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus population growth rates across the United States. We used a stage-structured matrix population model to understand past and present climatic suitability for these vectors, and to project future suitability under CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that much of the southern U.S. is suitable for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus year-round. In addition, a large proportion of the U.S. is seasonally suitable for mosquito population growth, creating the potential for periodic incursions into new areas. Changes in climatic suitability in recent decades for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have occurred already in many regions of the U.S., and model projections of future climate suggest that climate change will continue to reshape the range of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the U.S., and potentially the risk of the viruses they transmit.

Mapping Past, Present, and Future Climatic Suitability for Invasive Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus in the United States: A Process-Based Modeling Approach Using CMIP5 Downscaled Climate Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donnelly, Marisa Anne Pella; Marcantonio, Matteo; Melton, Forrest S.; Barker, Christopher M.

2016-01-01

The ongoing spread of the mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, in the continental United States leaves new areas at risk for local transmission of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. All three viruses have caused major disease outbreaks in the Americas with infected travelers returning regularly to the U.S. The expanding range of these mosquitoes raises questions about whether recent spread has been enabled by climate change or other anthropogenic influences. In this analysis, we used downscaled climate scenarios from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX GDDP) dataset to model Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus population growth rates across the United States. We used a stage-structured matrix population model to understand past and present climatic suitability for these vectors, and to project future suitability under CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that much of the southern U.S. is suitable for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus year-round. In addition, a large proportion of the U.S. is seasonally suitable for mosquito population growth, creating the potential for periodic incursions into new areas. Changes in climatic suitability in recent decades for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have occurred already in many regions of the U.S., and model projections of future climate suggest that climate change will continue to reshape the range of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the U.S., and potentially the risk of the viruses they transmit.

Carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matear, Richard J.; Lenton, Andrew

2018-03-01

Carbon-climate feedbacks have the potential to significantly impact the future climate by altering atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Zaehle et al. 2010). By modifying the future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the carbon-climate feedbacks will also influence the future ocean acidification trajectory. Here, we use the CO2 emissions scenarios from four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with an Earth system model to project the future trajectories of ocean acidification with the inclusion of carbon-climate feedbacks. We show that simulated carbon-climate feedbacks can significantly impact the onset of undersaturated aragonite conditions in the Southern and Arctic oceans, the suitable habitat for tropical coral and the deepwater saturation states. Under the high-emissions scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP6), the carbon-climate feedbacks advance the onset of surface water under saturation and the decline in suitable coral reef habitat by a decade or more. The impacts of the carbon-climate feedbacks are most significant for the medium- (RCP4.5) and low-emissions (RCP2.6) scenarios. For the RCP4.5 scenario, by 2100 the carbon-climate feedbacks nearly double the area of surface water undersaturated with respect to aragonite and reduce by 50 % the surface water suitable for coral reefs. For the RCP2.6 scenario, by 2100 the carbon-climate feedbacks reduce the area suitable for coral reefs by 40 % and increase the area of undersaturated surface water by 20 %. The sensitivity of ocean acidification to the carbon-climate feedbacks in the low to medium emission scenarios is important because recent CO2 emission reduction commitments are trying to transition emissions to such a scenario. Our study highlights the need to better characterise the carbon-climate feedbacks and ensure we do not underestimate the projected ocean acidification.

Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China.

PubMed

Wang, Rulin; Li, Qing; He, Shisong; Liu, Yuan; Wang, Mingtian; Jiang, Gan

2018-01-01

Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models) to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China. Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation. The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%), precipitation in May (11.5%) and minimum temperature in October (10.8%), had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa. The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.

Downscaling Pest Risk Analyses: Identifying Current and Future Potentially Suitable Habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus with Particular Reference to Europe and North Africa

PubMed Central

Kriticos, Darren J.; Brunel, Sarah; Ota, Noboru; Fried, Guillaume; Oude Lansink, Alfons G. J. M.; Panetta, F. Dane; Prasad, T. V. Ramachandra; Shabbir, Asad; Yaacoby, Tuvia

2015-01-01

Pest Risk Assessments (PRAs) routinely employ climatic niche models to identify endangered areas. Typically, these models consider only climatic factors, ignoring the ‘Swiss Cheese’ nature of species ranges due to the interplay of climatic and habitat factors. As part of a PRA conducted for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization, we developed a climatic niche model for Parthenium hysterophorus, explicitly including the effects of irrigation where it was known to be practiced. We then downscaled the climatic risk model using two different methods to identify the suitable habitat types: expert opinion (following the EPPO PRA guidelines) and inferred from the global spatial distribution. The PRA revealed a substantial risk to the EPPO region and Central and Western Africa, highlighting the desirability of avoiding an invasion by P. hysterophorus. We also consider the effects of climate change on the modelled risks. The climate change scenario indicated the risk of substantial further spread of P. hysterophorus in temperate northern hemisphere regions (North America, Europe and the northern Middle East), and also high elevation equatorial regions (Western Brazil, Central Africa, and South East Asia) if minimum temperatures increase substantially. Downscaling the climate model using habitat factors resulted in substantial (approximately 22–53%) reductions in the areas estimated to be endangered. Applying expert assessments as to suitable habitat classes resulted in the greatest reduction in the estimated endangered area, whereas inferring suitable habitats factors from distribution data identified more land use classes and a larger endangered area. Despite some scaling issues with using a globally conformal Land Use Systems dataset, the inferential downscaling method shows promise as a routine addition to the PRA toolkit, as either a direct model component, or simply as a means of better informing an expert assessment of the suitable habitat types. PMID:26325680

Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe.

PubMed

Dullinger, Iwona; Wessely, Johannes; Bossdorf, Oliver; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Gattringer, Andreas; Klonner, Günther; Kreft, Holger; Kuttner, Michael; Moser, Dietmar; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Thuiller, Wilfried; van Kleunen, Mark; Weigelt, Patrick; Winter, Marten; Dullinger, Stefan; Beaumont, Linda

2017-01-01

Plant invasions often follow initial introduction with a considerable delay. The current non-native flora of a region may hence contain species that are not yet naturalized but may become so in the future, especially if climate change lifts limitations on species spread. In Europe, non-native garden plants represent a huge pool of potential future invaders. Here, we evaluate the naturalization risk from this species pool and how it may change under a warmer climate. Europe. We selected all species naturalized anywhere in the world but not yet in Europe from the set of non-native European garden plants. For this subset of 783 species, we used species distribution models to assess their potential European ranges under different scenarios of climate change. Moreover, we defined geographical hotspots of naturalization risk from those species by combining projections of climatic suitability with maps of the area available for ornamental plant cultivation. Under current climate, 165 species would already find suitable conditions in > 5% of Europe. Although climate change substantially increases the potential range of many species, there are also some that are predicted to lose climatically suitable area under a changing climate, particularly species native to boreal and Mediterranean biomes. Overall, hotspots of naturalization risk defined by climatic suitability alone, or by a combination of climatic suitability and appropriate land cover, are projected to increase by up to 102% or 64%, respectively. Our results suggest that the risk of naturalization of European garden plants will increase with warming climate, and thus it is very likely that the risk of negative impacts from invasion by these plants will also grow. It is therefore crucial to increase awareness of the possibility of biological invasions among horticulturalists, particularly in the face of a warming climate.

Vulnerability to changes in malaria transmission due to climate change in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

2012-12-01

Malaria transmission in West Africa is strongly tied to climate; temperature affects the development rate of the malaria parasite, as well as the survival of the mosquitoes that transmit the disease, and rainfall is tied to mosquito abundance, as the vector lays its eggs in rain-fed water pools. As a result, the environmental suitability for malaria transmission in this region is expected to change as temperatures rise and rainfall patterns are altered. The vulnerability to changes in transmission varies throughout West Africa. Areas where malaria prevalence is already very high will be less sensitive to changes in transmission. Increases in environmental suitability for malaria transmission in the most arid regions may still be insufficient to allow sustained transmission. However, areas were malaria transmission currently occurs at low levels are expected to be the most sensitive to changes in environmental suitability for transmission. Here, we use data on current environment and malaria transmission rates to highlight areas in West Africa that we expect to be most vulnerable to an increase in malaria under certain climate conditions. We then analyze climate predictions from global climate models in vulnerable areas, and make predictions for the expected change in environmental suitability for malaria transmission using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS), a mechanistic model developed to simulate village-scale response of malaria transmission to environmental variables in West Africa.

Connectivity planning to address climate change

Treesearch

Tristan A. Nuñez; Joshua J. Lawler; Brad H. McRae; D. John Pierce; Meade B. Krosby; Darren M. Kavanagh; Peter H. Singleton; Joshua J. Tewksbury

2013-01-01

As the climate changes, human land use may impede species from tracking areas with suitable climates. Maintaining connectivity between areas of different temperatures could allow organisms to move along temperature gradients and allow species to continue to occupy the same temperature space as the climate warms. We used a coarse-filter approach to identify broad...

Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

PubMed

Princé, Karine; Lorrillière, Romain; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Léger, François; Jiguet, Frédéric

2015-01-01

Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture) showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform sustainable agricultural policies for the future.

Cross-scale assessment of potential habitat shifts in a rapidly changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Bella, Elizabeth S.; Carlson, Matthew L.; Graziano, Gino; Lamb, Melinda; Seefeldt, Steven S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

We assessed the ability of climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic variables to predict areas of high-risk for plant invasion and consider the relative importance and contribution of these predictor variables by considering two spatial scales in a region of rapidly changing climate. We created predictive distribution models, using Maxent, for three highly invasive plant species (Canada thistle, white sweetclover, and reed canarygrass) in Alaska at both a regional scale and a local scale. Regional scale models encompassed southern coastal Alaska and were developed from topographic and climatic data at a 2 km (1.2 mi) spatial resolution. Models were applied to future climate (2030). Local scale models were spatially nested within the regional area; these models incorporated physiographic and anthropogenic variables at a 30 m (98.4 ft) resolution. Regional and local models performed well (AUC values > 0.7), with the exception of one species at each spatial scale. Regional models predict an increase in area of suitable habitat for all species by 2030 with a general shift to higher elevation areas; however, the distribution of each species was driven by different climate and topographical variables. In contrast local models indicate that distance to right-of-ways and elevation are associated with habitat suitability for all three species at this spatial level. Combining results from regional models, capturing long-term distribution, and local models, capturing near-term establishment and distribution, offers a new and effective tool for highlighting at-risk areas and provides insight on how variables acting at different scales contribute to suitability predictions. The combinations also provides easy comparison, highlighting agreement between the two scales, where long-term distribution factors predict suitability while near-term do not and vice versa.

Will climate change impact the potential distribution of a native vine (Merremia peltata) which is behaving invasively in the Pacific region?

PubMed

Taylor, Subhashni; Kumar, Lalit

2016-02-01

Merremia peltata is a species with uncertain status in the island nations of the Pacific region. It has been designated introduced and invasive in some countries whereas it is considered native in others. Recent increase in its abundance across some island landscapes have led to calls for its designation as an invasive species of environmental concern with biological control being suggested as a control strategy. Climate change will add to the complications of managing this species since changes in climate will influence its range limits. In this study, we develop a process-oriented niche model of M. peltata using CLIMEX to investigate the impacts of climate change on its potential distribution. Information on the climatic requirements of M. peltata and its current geographic distribution were used to calibrate the model. The results indicate that under current climate, 273,132 km(2) of the land area in the region is climatically unsuitable or marginal for M. peltata whereas 664,524 km(2) is suitable to highly suitable. Under current climate, areas of climatic suitability for M. peltata were identified on the archipelagos of Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. By the end of the century, some archipelagos like Fiji, Hawaii, New Caledonia and Vanuatu will probably become more suitable while PNG and Solomon Islands become less suitable for M. peltata. The results can be used to inform biosecurity planning, management and conservation strategies on islands.

Agro-climatic zoning of Jatropha curcas as a subside for crop planning and implementation in Brazil.

PubMed

Yamada, Eliane S M; Sentelhas, Paulo C

2014-11-01

As jatropha (Jatropha curcas L.) is a recent crop in Brazil, the studies for defining its suitability for different regions are not yet available, even considering the promises about this plant as of high potential for marginal zones where poor soils and dry climate occur. Based on that, the present study had as objective to characterize the climatic conditions of jatropha's center of origin in Central America for establishing its climatic requirements and to develop the agro-climatic zoning for this crop for some Brazilian regions where, according to the literature, it would be suitable. For classifying the climatic conditions of the jatropha's center of origin, climate data from 123 weather stations located in Mexico (93) and in Guatemala (30) were used. These data were input for Thornthwaite and Mather's climatological water balance for determining the annual water deficiency (WD) and water surplus (WS) of each location, considering a soil water-holding capacity (SWHC) of 100 mm. Mean annual temperature (T m), WD, and WS data were organized in histograms for defining the limits of suitability for jatropha cultivation. The results showed that the suitable range of T m for jatropha cultivation is between 23 and 27 °C. T m between 15 and 22.9 °C and between 27.1 and 28 °C were classified as marginal by thermal deficiency and excess, respectively. T m below 15 °C and above 28 °C were considered as unsuitable for jatropha cultivation, respectively, by risk of frosts and physiological disturbs. For WD, suitability for rain-fed jatropha cultivation was considered when its value is below 360 mm, while between 361 and 720 mm is considered as marginal and over 720 mm unsuitable. The same order of suitability was also defined for WS, with the following limits: suitable for WS up to 1,200 mm; marginal for WS between 1,201 and 2,400 mm, and unsuitable for WS above 2,400 mm. For the crop zoning, the criteria previously defined were applied to 1,814 climate stations in the following Brazilian regions: Northeast (NE) region and the states of Goiás (GO), Tocantins (TO), and Minas Gerais (MG). The suitability maps were generated by crossing the crop climate requirements with the interpolated climate conditions of the selected regions. The maps showed that only 22.65% of the areas in the NE region are suitable for jatropha as a rain-fed crop. The other areas of the region are classified as marginal (62.61%) and unsuitable (14.74%). In the states of GO and TO, the majority of the areas (47.78%) is classified as suitable, and in the state of MG, 33.92% of the territory has suitability for the crop. These results prove that jatropha cannot be cultivated everywhere and will require, as any other crop, minimum climatic conditions to have sustainable performance and high yields.

Impacts of sea level rise and climate change on coastal plant species in the central California coast

PubMed Central

Chang, Michelle Y.; Fulda, Matthew T.; Berlin, Jonathan A.; Freed, Rachel E.; Soo-Hoo, Melissa M.; Revell, Dave L.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Kendall, Bruce E.

2015-01-01

Local increases in sea level caused by global climate change pose a significant threat to the persistence of many coastal plant species through exacerbating inundation, flooding, and erosion. In addition to sea level rise (SLR), climate changes in the form of air temperature and precipitation regimes will also alter habitats of coastal plant species. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats through species distribution models (SDMs), none have incorporated the threat of exposure to SLR. We developed a model that quantified the effect of both SLR and climate change on habitat for 88 rare coastal plant species in San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties, California, USA (an area of 23,948 km2). Our SLR model projects that by the year 2100, 60 of the 88 species will be threatened by SLR. We found that the probability of being threatened by SLR strongly correlates with a species’ area, elevation, and distance from the coast, and that 10 species could lose their entire current habitat in the study region. We modeled the habitat suitability of these 10 species under future climate using a species distribution model (SDM). Our SDM projects that 4 of the 10 species will lose all suitable current habitats in the region as a result of climate change. While SLR accounts for up to 9.2 km2 loss in habitat, climate change accounts for habitat suitability changes ranging from a loss of 1,439 km2 for one species to a gain of 9,795 km2 for another species. For three species, SLR is projected to reduce future suitable area by as much as 28% of total area. This suggests that while SLR poses a higher risk, climate changes in precipitation and air temperature represents a lesser known but potentially larger risk and a small cumulative effect from both. PMID:26020011

Impacts of sea level rise and climate change on coastal plant species in the central California coast.

PubMed

Garner, Kendra L; Chang, Michelle Y; Fulda, Matthew T; Berlin, Jonathan A; Freed, Rachel E; Soo-Hoo, Melissa M; Revell, Dave L; Ikegami, Makihiko; Flint, Lorraine E; Flint, Alan L; Kendall, Bruce E

2015-01-01

Local increases in sea level caused by global climate change pose a significant threat to the persistence of many coastal plant species through exacerbating inundation, flooding, and erosion. In addition to sea level rise (SLR), climate changes in the form of air temperature and precipitation regimes will also alter habitats of coastal plant species. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats through species distribution models (SDMs), none have incorporated the threat of exposure to SLR. We developed a model that quantified the effect of both SLR and climate change on habitat for 88 rare coastal plant species in San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties, California, USA (an area of 23,948 km(2)). Our SLR model projects that by the year 2100, 60 of the 88 species will be threatened by SLR. We found that the probability of being threatened by SLR strongly correlates with a species' area, elevation, and distance from the coast, and that 10 species could lose their entire current habitat in the study region. We modeled the habitat suitability of these 10 species under future climate using a species distribution model (SDM). Our SDM projects that 4 of the 10 species will lose all suitable current habitats in the region as a result of climate change. While SLR accounts for up to 9.2 km(2) loss in habitat, climate change accounts for habitat suitability changes ranging from a loss of 1,439 km(2) for one species to a gain of 9,795 km(2) for another species. For three species, SLR is projected to reduce future suitable area by as much as 28% of total area. This suggests that while SLR poses a higher risk, climate changes in precipitation and air temperature represents a lesser known but potentially larger risk and a small cumulative effect from both.

Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S.

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11–4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species. PMID:25180515

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.

PubMed

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11-4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.

Climate effects on the distribution of wetland habitats and connectivity in networks of migratory waterbirds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellisario, Bruno; Cerfolli, Fulvio; Nascetti, Giuseppe

2014-07-01

The establishment and maintenance of conservation areas are among the most common measures to mitigate the loss of biodiversity. However, recent advances in conservation biology have challenged the reliability of such areas to cope with variation in climate conditions. Climate change can reshuffle the geographic distribution of species, but in many cases suitable habitats become scarce or unavailable, limiting the ability to migrate or adapt in response to modified environments. In this respect, the extent to which existing protected areas are able to compensate changes in habitat conditions to ensure the persistence of species still remains unclear. We used a spatially explicit model to measure the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of wetland habitats and connectivity of Natura 2000 sites in Italy. The effects of climate change were measured on the potential for water accumulation in a given site, as a surrogate measure for the persistence of aquatic ecosystems and their associated migratory waterbirds. Climate impacts followed a geographic trend, changing the distribution of suitable habitats for migrants and highlighting a latitudinal threshold beyond which the connectivity reaches a sudden collapse. Our findings show the relative poor reliability of most sites in dealing with changing habitat conditions and ensure the long-term connectivity, with possible consequences for the persistence of species. Although alterations of climate suitability and habitat destruction could impact critical areas for migratory waterbirds, more research is needed to evaluate all possible long-term effects on the connectivity of migratory networks.

Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century.

PubMed

Wang, Bin; Liu, De L; O'Leary, Garry J; Asseng, Senthold; Macadam, Ian; Lines-Kelly, Rebecca; Yang, Xihua; Clark, Anthony; Crean, Jason; Sides, Timothy; Xing, Hongtao; Mi, Chunrong; Yu, Qiang

2018-06-01

Climate change threatens global wheat production and food security, including the wheat industry in Australia. Many studies have examined the impacts of changes in local climate on wheat yield per hectare, but there has been no assessment of changes in land area available for production due to changing climate. It is also unclear how total wheat production would change under future climate when autonomous adaptation options are adopted. We applied species distribution models to investigate future changes in areas climatically suitable for growing wheat in Australia. A crop model was used to assess wheat yield per hectare in these areas. Our results show that there is an overall tendency for a decrease in the areas suitable for growing wheat and a decline in the yield of the northeast Australian wheat belt. This results in reduced national wheat production although future climate change may benefit South Australia and Victoria. These projected outcomes infer that similar wheat-growing regions of the globe might also experience decreases in wheat production. Some cropping adaptation measures increase wheat yield per hectare and provide significant mitigation of the negative effects of climate change on national wheat production by 2041-2060. However, any positive effects will be insufficient to prevent a likely decline in production under a high CO 2 emission scenario by 2081-2100 due to increasing losses in suitable wheat-growing areas. Therefore, additional adaptation strategies along with investment in wheat production are needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security. This scenario analysis provides a foundation towards understanding changes in Australia's wheat cropping systems, which will assist in developing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on global wheat production. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus - two invasive mosquito species with different temperature niches in Europe.

PubMed

Cunze, Sarah; Koch, Lisa K; Kochmann, Judith; Klimpel, Sven

2016-11-04

Aedes albopictus and Ae. japonicus are two of the most widespread invasive mosquito species that have recently become established in western Europe. Both species are associated with the transmission of a number of serious diseases and are projected to continue their spread in Europe. In the present study, we modelled the habitat suitability for both species under current and future climatic conditions by means of an Ensemble forecasting approach. We additionally compared the modelled MAXENT niches of Ae. albopictus and Ae. japonicus regarding temperature and precipitation requirements. Both species were modelled to find suitable habitat conditions in distinct areas within Europe: Ae. albopictus within the Mediterranean regions in southern Europe, Ae. japonicus within the more temperate regions of central Europe. Only in few regions, suitable habitat conditions were projected to overlap for both species. Whereas Ae. albopictus is projected to be generally promoted by climate change in Europe, the area modelled to be climatically suitable for Ae. japonicus is projected to decrease under climate change. This projection of range reduction under climate change relies on the assumption that Ae. japonicus is not able to adapt to warmer climatic conditions. The modelled MAXENT temperature niches of Ae. japonicus were found to be narrower with an optimum at lower temperatures compared to the niches of Ae. albopictus. Species distribution models identifying areas with high habitat suitability can help improving monitoring programmes for invasive species currently in place. However, as mosquito species are known to be able to adapt to new environmental conditions within the invasion range quickly, niche evolution of invasive mosquito species should be closely followed upon in future studies.

Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe

PubMed Central

Wessely, Johannes; Bossdorf, Oliver; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Gattringer, Andreas; Klonner, Günther; Kreft, Holger; Kuttner, Michael; Moser, Dietmar; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Thuiller, Wilfried; van Kleunen, Mark; Weigelt, Patrick; Winter, Marten; Dullinger, Stefan; Beaumont, Linda

2016-01-01

Abstract Aim Plant invasions often follow initial introduction with a considerable delay. The current non‐native flora of a region may hence contain species that are not yet naturalized but may become so in the future, especially if climate change lifts limitations on species spread. In Europe, non‐native garden plants represent a huge pool of potential future invaders. Here, we evaluate the naturalization risk from this species pool and how it may change under a warmer climate. Location Europe. Methods We selected all species naturalized anywhere in the world but not yet in Europe from the set of non‐native European garden plants. For this subset of 783 species, we used species distribution models to assess their potential European ranges under different scenarios of climate change. Moreover, we defined geographical hotspots of naturalization risk from those species by combining projections of climatic suitability with maps of the area available for ornamental plant cultivation. Results Under current climate, 165 species would already find suitable conditions in > 5% of Europe. Although climate change substantially increases the potential range of many species, there are also some that are predicted to lose climatically suitable area under a changing climate, particularly species native to boreal and Mediterranean biomes. Overall, hotspots of naturalization risk defined by climatic suitability alone, or by a combination of climatic suitability and appropriate land cover, are projected to increase by up to 102% or 64%, respectively. Main conclusions Our results suggest that the risk of naturalization of European garden plants will increase with warming climate, and thus it is very likely that the risk of negative impacts from invasion by these plants will also grow. It is therefore crucial to increase awareness of the possibility of biological invasions among horticulturalists, particularly in the face of a warming climate. PMID:28111525

Which Wild Aardvarks Are Most Suitable for Outdoor Enclosures in Zoological Gardens in the European Union?

PubMed

Patoka, Jiří; Vejtrubová, Markéta; Vrabec, Vladimír; Masopustová, Renata

2018-01-01

The aardvark is popular in many zoological gardens in the European Union. These creatures are nocturnal, and aardvarks in the wild are known to walk distances of 4 km to 7 km per night. Despite what is known about their biology, most aardvarks are kept in zoological gardens in indoor enclosures with little space for movement. This lack of space leads to a tendency toward obesity and compromised welfare. With their wide distribution in Sub-Saharan Africa, aardvarks are perceived as thermophilic nonhuman animals. Nevertheless, some records suggest they may be able to adapt to colder climates and can be active outside their burrows when temperatures fall to 2°C. These findings suggest there may be a wild African population that is suitable for partial outdoor keeping under European climatic conditions. Therefore, a climate match was computed between the source area with aardvark occurrence and a target area of the European Union. Data revealed that the Free State, a South African province, was the area with the best climate similarity, and aardvarks from this area are recommended as suitable for the aforementioned purpose.

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

PubMed

Xie, Gisselle Yang; Olson, Deanna H; Blaustein, Andrew R

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats.

Model-based conservation planning of the genetic diversity of Phellodendron amurense Rupr due to climate change

PubMed Central

Wan, Jizhong; Wang, Chunjing; Yu, Jinghua; Nie, Siming; Han, Shijie; Zu, Yuangang; Chen, Changmei; Yuan, Shusheng; Wang, Qinggui

2014-01-01

Climate change affects both habitat suitability and the genetic diversity of wild plants. Therefore, predicting and establishing the most effective and coherent conservation areas is essential for the conservation of genetic diversity in response to climate change. This is because genetic variance is a product not only of habitat suitability in conservation areas but also of efficient protection and management. Phellodendron amurense Rupr. is a tree species (family Rutaceae) that is endangered due to excessive and illegal harvesting for use in Chinese medicine. Here, we test a general computational method for the prediction of priority conservation areas (PCAs) by measuring the genetic diversity of P. amurense across the entirety of northeast China using a single strand repeat analysis of twenty microsatellite markers. Using computational modeling, we evaluated the geographical distribution of the species, both now and in different future climate change scenarios. Different populations were analyzed according to genetic diversity, and PCAs were identified using a spatial conservation prioritization framework. These conservation areas were optimized to account for the geographical distribution of P. amurense both now and in the future, to effectively promote gene flow, and to have a long period of validity. In situ and ex situ conservation, strategies for vulnerable populations were proposed. Three populations with low genetic diversity are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change, making conservation of genetic diversity challenging due to decreasing habitat suitability. Habitat suitability was important for the assessment of genetic variability in existing nature reserves, which were found to be much smaller than the proposed PCAs. Finally, a simple set of conservation measures was established through modeling. This combined molecular and computational ecology approach provides a framework for planning the protection of species endangered by climate change. PMID:25165526

Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios

PubMed Central

Caminade, Cyril; Medlock, Jolyon M.; Ducheyne, Els; McIntyre, K. Marie; Leach, Steve; Baylis, Matthew; Morse, Andrew P.

2012-01-01

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960–1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion. PMID:22535696

Climate and Pest-Driven Geographic Shifts in Global Coffee Production: Implications for Forest Cover, Biodiversity and Carbon Storage

PubMed Central

Magrach, Ainhoa; Ghazoul, Jaboury

2015-01-01

Coffee is highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, making its cultivation vulnerable to geographic shifts in response to a changing climate. This could lead to the establishment of coffee plantations in new areas and potential conflicts with other land covers including natural forest, with consequent implications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We project areas suitable for future coffee cultivation based on several climate scenarios and expected responses of the coffee berry borer, a principle pest of coffee crops. We show that the global climatically-suitable area will suffer marked shifts from some current major centres of cultivation. Most areas will be suited to Robusta coffee, demand for which could be met without incurring forest encroachment. The cultivation of Arabica, which represents 70% of consumed coffee, can also be accommodated in the future, but only by incurring some natural forest loss. This has corresponding implications for carbon storage, and is likely to affect areas currently designated as priority areas for biodiversity. Where Arabica coffee does encroach on natural forests, we project average local losses of 35% of threatened vertebrate species. The interaction of climate and coffee berry borer greatly influences projected outcomes. PMID:26177201

The Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Agricultural Pests: The Case of the Coffee White Stem Borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Kutywayo, Dumisani; Chemura, Abel; Kusena, Winmore; Chidoko, Pardon; Mahoya, Caleb

2013-01-01

The production of agricultural commodities faces increased risk of pests, diseases and other stresses due to climate change and variability. This study assesses the potential distribution of agricultural pests under projected climatic scenarios using evidence from the African coffee white stem borer (CWB), Monochamus leuconotus (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), an important pest of coffee in Zimbabwe. A species distribution modeling approach utilising Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) was applied on current and projected climate data obtained from the WorldClim database and occurrence data (presence and absence) collected through on-farm biological surveys in Chipinge, Chimanimani, Mutare and Mutasa districts in Zimbabwe. Results from both the BRT and GLM indicate that precipitation-related variables are more important in determining species range for the CWB than temperature related variables. The CWB has extensive potential habitats in all coffee areas with Mutasa district having the largest model average area suitable for CWB under current and projected climatic conditions. Habitat ranges for CWB will increase under future climate scenarios for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutare districts while it will decrease in Mutasa district. The highest percentage change in area suitable for the CWB was for Chimanimani district with a model average of 49.1% (3 906 ha) increase in CWB range by 2080. The BRT and GLM predictions gave similar predicted ranges for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutasa districts compared to the high variation in current and projected habitat area for CWB in Mutare district. The study concludes that suitable area for CWB will increase significantly in Zimbabwe due to climate change and there is need to develop adaptation mechanisms. PMID:24014222

Climate envelope predictions indicate an enlarged suitable wintering distribution for Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii) in China for the 21st century

PubMed Central

Mi, Chunrong; Falk, Huettmann

2016-01-01

The rapidly changing climate makes humans realize that there is a critical need to incorporate climate change adaptation into conservation planning. Whether the wintering habitats of Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii), a globally endangered migratory subspecies whose population is approximately 1,500–2,200 individuals in China, would be still suitable in a changing climate environment, and where this could be found, is an important protection issue. In this study, we selected the most suitable species distribution model for bustards using climate envelopes from four machine learning models, combining two modelling approaches (TreeNet and Random Forest) with two sets of variables (correlated variables removed or not). We used common evaluation methods area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS) as well as independent test data to identify the most suitable model. As often found elsewhere, we found Random Forest with all environmental variables outperformed in all assessment methods. When we projected the best model to the latest IPCC-CMIP5 climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 in three Global Circulation Models (GCMs)), and averaged the project results of the three models, we found that suitable wintering habitats in the current bustard distribution would increase during the 21st century. The Northeast Plain and the south of North China were projected to become two major wintering areas for bustards. However, the models suggest that some currently suitable habitats will experience a reduction, such as Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin. Although our results suggested that suitable habitats in China would widen with climate change, greater efforts should be undertaken to assess and mitigate unstudied human disturbance, such as pollution, hunting, agricultural development, infrastructure construction, habitat fragmentation, and oil and mine exploitation. All of these are negatively and intensely linked with global change. PMID:26855870

Climate envelope predictions indicate an enlarged suitable wintering distribution for Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii) in China for the 21st century.

PubMed

Mi, Chunrong; Falk, Huettmann; Guo, Yumin

2016-01-01

The rapidly changing climate makes humans realize that there is a critical need to incorporate climate change adaptation into conservation planning. Whether the wintering habitats of Great Bustards (Otis tarda dybowskii), a globally endangered migratory subspecies whose population is approximately 1,500-2,200 individuals in China, would be still suitable in a changing climate environment, and where this could be found, is an important protection issue. In this study, we selected the most suitable species distribution model for bustards using climate envelopes from four machine learning models, combining two modelling approaches (TreeNet and Random Forest) with two sets of variables (correlated variables removed or not). We used common evaluation methods area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS) as well as independent test data to identify the most suitable model. As often found elsewhere, we found Random Forest with all environmental variables outperformed in all assessment methods. When we projected the best model to the latest IPCC-CMIP5 climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 in three Global Circulation Models (GCMs)), and averaged the project results of the three models, we found that suitable wintering habitats in the current bustard distribution would increase during the 21st century. The Northeast Plain and the south of North China were projected to become two major wintering areas for bustards. However, the models suggest that some currently suitable habitats will experience a reduction, such as Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin. Although our results suggested that suitable habitats in China would widen with climate change, greater efforts should be undertaken to assess and mitigate unstudied human disturbance, such as pollution, hunting, agricultural development, infrastructure construction, habitat fragmentation, and oil and mine exploitation. All of these are negatively and intensely linked with global change.

Climate change effects on Chikungunya transmission in Europe: geospatial analysis of vector's climatic suitability and virus' temperature requirements.

PubMed

Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie M; Suk, Jonathan E; Sudre, Bertrand; Hess, Andrea; Tjaden, Nils B; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Semenza, Jan C

2013-11-12

Chikungunya was, from the European perspective, considered to be a travel-related tropical mosquito-borne disease prior to the first European outbreak in Northern Italy in 2007. This was followed by cases of autochthonous transmission reported in South-eastern France in 2010. Both events occurred after the introduction, establishment and expansion of the Chikungunya-competent and highly invasive disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) in Europe. In order to assess whether these outbreaks are indicative of the beginning of a trend or one-off events, there is a need to further examine the factors driving the potential transmission of Chikungunya in Europe. The climatic suitability, both now and in the future, is an essential starting point for such an analysis. The climatic suitability for Chikungunya outbreaks was determined by using bioclimatic factors that influence, both vector and, pathogen. Climatic suitability for the European distribution of the vector Aedes albopictus was based upon previous correlative environmental niche models. Climatic risk classes were derived by combining climatic suitability for the vector with known temperature requirements for pathogen transmission, obtained from outbreak regions. In addition, the longest potential intra-annual season for Chikungunya transmission was estimated for regions with expected vector occurrences.In order to analyse spatio-temporal trends for risk exposure and season of transmission in Europe, climate change impacts are projected for three time-frames (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These climatic projections are based on regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which builds on the global model ECHAM5. European areas with current and future climatic suitability of Chikungunya transmission are identified. An increase in risk is projected for Western Europe (e.g. France and Benelux-States) in the first half of the 21st century and from mid-century onwards for central parts of Europe (e.g. Germany). Interestingly, the southernmost parts of Europe do not generally provide suitable conditions in these projections. Nevertheless, many Mediterranean regions will persist to be climatically suitable for transmission. Overall, the highest risk of transmission by the end of the 21st century was projected for France, Northern Italy and the Pannonian Basin (East-Central Europe). This general tendency is depicted in both, the A1B and B1 climate change scenarios. In order to guide preparedness for further outbreaks, it is crucial to anticipate risk as to identify areas where specific public health measures, such as surveillance and vector control, can be implemented. However, public health practitioners need to be aware that climate is only one factor driving the transmission of vector-borne disease.

Predicting the distributions of predator (snow leopard) and prey (blue sheep) under climate change in the Himalaya.

PubMed

Aryal, Achyut; Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Ji, Weihong; Ale, Som B; Shrestha, Sujata; Ingty, Tenzing; Maraseni, Tek; Cockfield, Geoff; Raubenheimer, David

2016-06-01

Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator-prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy-deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate-only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km(2)) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km(2) (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate-only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator-prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards - a species already facing energetic constraints due to the limited dietary resources in its alpine habitat. Our findings provide valuable information for extension of protected areas in future.

Invasive alien plant species dynamics in the Himalayan region under climate change.

PubMed

Lamsal, Pramod; Kumar, Lalit; Aryal, Achyut; Atreya, Kishor

2018-01-25

Climate change will impact the dynamics of invasive alien plant species (IAPS). However, the ability of IAPS under changing climate to invade mountain ecosystems, particularly the Himalayan region, is less known. This study investigates the current and future habitat of five IAPS of the Himalayan region using MaxEnt and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Two invasive species, Ageratum conyzoides and Parthenium hysterophorus, will lose overall suitable area by 2070, while Ageratina adenophora, Chromolaena odorata and Lantana camara will gain suitable areas and all of them will retain most of the current habitat as stable. The southern Himalayan foothills will mostly conserve species ecological niches, while suitability of all the five species will decrease with increasing elevation. Such invasion dynamics in the Himalayan region could have impacts on numerous ecosystems and their biota, ecosystem services and human well-being. Trans-boundary response strategies suitable to the local context of the region could buffer some of the likely invasion impacts.

Climatic niche of Selinum alatum (Apiaceae, Selineae), a new invasive plant species in Central Europe and its alterations according to the climate change scenarios: Are the European mountains threatened by invasion?

PubMed

Konowalik, Kamil; Proćków, Małgorzata; Proćków, Jarosław

2017-01-01

In recent years, a few established populations of Selinum alatum have been found in the Eastern Carpathians outside its native range that is the Caucasus and the Armenian Highlands. The species is spreading predominantly in Poland where it can outcompete native plants in certain cases. This study addresses a potential climatic niche of the plant with the special aims to illuminate future spreading and indicate areas suitable for invasion. Our results show that the extent of the favourable habitat of the species is broader than currently known. This suggests that the plant has the ability to become a potential new element in some semi-natural or disturbed ecosystems associated with mountainous areas, especially in Central and Southern Europe. Future (2070) models mostly rendered similar suitability maps, but showed slight differences over particular areas and a contraction of suitable habitats, mainly in the northern part of the non-native range.

Climatic niche of Selinum alatum (Apiaceae, Selineae), a new invasive plant species in Central Europe and its alterations according to the climate change scenarios: Are the European mountains threatened by invasion?

PubMed Central

Proćków, Małgorzata; Proćków, Jarosław

2017-01-01

In recent years, a few established populations of Selinum alatum have been found in the Eastern Carpathians outside its native range that is the Caucasus and the Armenian Highlands. The species is spreading predominantly in Poland where it can outcompete native plants in certain cases. This study addresses a potential climatic niche of the plant with the special aims to illuminate future spreading and indicate areas suitable for invasion. Our results show that the extent of the favourable habitat of the species is broader than currently known. This suggests that the plant has the ability to become a potential new element in some semi-natural or disturbed ecosystems associated with mountainous areas, especially in Central and Southern Europe. Future (2070) models mostly rendered similar suitability maps, but showed slight differences over particular areas and a contraction of suitable habitats, mainly in the northern part of the non-native range. PMID:28806731

Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Guo, Yanlong; Li, Xin; Zhao, Zefang; Wei, Haiyan; Gao, Bei; Gu, Wei

2017-04-10

Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 10 6  km 2 , 0.14 × 10 6  km 2 , and 0.11 × 10 6  km 2 , respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species.

Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yanlong; Li, Xin; Zhao, Zefang; Wei, Haiyan; Gao, Bei; Gu, Wei

2017-04-01

Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 106 km2, 0.14 × 106 km2, and 0.11 × 106 km2, respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species.

Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Guo, Yanlong; Li, Xin; Zhao, Zefang; Wei, Haiyan; Gao, Bei; Gu, Wei

2017-01-01

Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 106 km2, 0.14 × 106 km2, and 0.11 × 106 km2, respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species. PMID:28393865

Assessment of the Probability of Autochthonous Transmission of Chikungunya Virus in Canada under Recent and Projected Climate Change

PubMed Central

Fazil, Aamir; Gachon, Philippe; Deuymes, Guillaume; Radojević, Milka; Mascarenhas, Mariola; Garasia, Sophiya; Johansson, Michael A.; Ogden, Nicholas H.

2017-01-01

Background: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a reemerging pathogen transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. The ongoing Caribbean outbreak is of concern due to the potential for infected travelers to spread the virus to countries where vectors are present and the population is susceptible. Although there has been no autochthonous transmission of CHIKV in Canada, there is concern that both Ae. albopictus and CHIKV will become established, particularly under projected climate change. We developed risk maps for autochthonous CHIKV transmission in Canada under recent (1981–2010) and projected climate (2011–2040 and 2041–2070). Methods: The risk for CHIKV transmission was the combination of the climatic suitability for CHIKV transmission potential and the climatic suitability for the presence of Ae. albopictus; the former was assessed using a stochastic model to calculate R0 and the latter was assessed by deriving a suitability indicator (SIG) that captures a set of climatic conditions known to influence the ecology of Ae. albopictus. R0 and SIG were calculated for each grid cell in Canada south of 60°N, for each time period and for two emission scenarios, and combined to produce overall risk categories that were mapped to identify areas suitable for transmission and the duration of transmissibility. Findings: The risk for autochthonous CHIKV transmission under recent climate is very low with all of Canada classified as unsuitable or rather unsuitable for transmission. Small parts of southern coastal British Columbia become progressively suitable with short-term and long-term projected climate; the duration of potential transmission is limited to 1–2 months of the year. Interpretation: Although the current risk for autochthonous CHIKV transmission in Canada is very low, our study could be further supported by the routine surveillance of Ae. albopictus in areas identified as potentially suitable for transmission given our uncertainty on the current distribution of this species in Canada. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP669 PMID:28731409

Projecting potential distribution of Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus Motschulsky and E. brandti (Harold) under historical climate and RCP 8.5 scenario.

PubMed

Ji, Yingchao; Luo, Wen; Zhang, Ganyu; Wen, Junbao

2017-08-22

Ailanthus altissima (Mill.) Swingle and its variant A. altissima var. Qiantouchun are notorious invasive weeds. Two weevils, Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus (ESC) and E. brandti (EBR) are considered as candidates for biological control of A. altissima. The aim of this study was to model the potential distributions of ESC and EBR using CLIMEX 4.0. The projected potential distributions of ESC and EBR included almost all current distribution areas of A. altissima, except Southeast Asia. Under historical climate, potential distribution area of EBR is larger than that of ESC, 46.67 × 10 6  km 2 and 35.65 × 10 6  km 2 , respectively. For both ESC and EBR, climate change expanded the northern boundary of potential distributions northward approximately 600 km by the middle of 21st century, and 1000 km by the end of 21st century under RCP 8.5. However, the suitable range decreased to the south in the Southern Hemisphere because of heat stress. The modelled potential distributions of ESC and EBR in the United States demonstrated that the climate was suitable for both weevils. Therefore, considering only climate suitability, both ESC and EBR can be considered as potential biological control agents against A. altissima with some confidence that climatic conditions are likely suitable.

Predicting the geographic distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

PubMed Central

de Almeida, Paulo Silva; Sciamarelli, Alan; Batista, Paulo Mira; Ferreira, Ademar Dimas; Nascimento, João; Raizer, Josué; Andrade, José Dilermando; Gurgel-Gonçalves, Rodrigo

2013-01-01

To understand the geographic distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, both the climatic niches of Lutzomyia longipalpis and VL cases were analysed. Distributional data were obtained from 55 of the 79 counties of MS between 2003-2012. Ecological niche models (ENM) of Lu. longipalpis and VL cases were produced using the maximum entropy algorithm based on eight climatic variables. Lu. longipalpis showed a wide distribution in MS. The highest climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis was observed in southern MS. Temperature seasonality and annual mean precipitation were the variables that most influenced these models. Two areas of high climatic suitability for the occurrence of VL cases were predicted: one near Aquidauana and another encompassing several municipalities in the southeast region of MS. As expected, a large overlap between the models for Lu. longipalpis and VL cases was detected. Northern and northwestern areas of MS were suitable for the occurrence of cases, but did not show high climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis . ENM of vectors and human cases provided a greater understanding of the geographic distribution of VL in MS, which can be applied to the development of future surveillance strategies. PMID:24402151

Predicting the geographic distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil.

PubMed

Almeida, Paulo Silva de; Sciamarelli, Alan; Batista, Paulo Mira; Ferreira, Ademar Dimas; Nascimento, João; Raizer, Josué; Andrade Filho, José Dilermando; Gurgel-Gonçalves, Rodrigo

2013-12-01

To understand the geographic distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, both the climatic niches of Lutzomyia longipalpis and VL cases were analysed. Distributional data were obtained from 55 of the 79 counties of MS between 2003-2012. Ecological niche models (ENM) of Lu. longipalpis and VL cases were produced using the maximum entropy algorithm based on eight climatic variables. Lu. longipalpis showed a wide distribution in MS. The highest climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis was observed in southern MS. Temperature seasonality and annual mean precipitation were the variables that most influenced these models. Two areas of high climatic suitability for the occurrence of VL cases were predicted: one near Aquidauana and another encompassing several municipalities in the southeast region of MS. As expected, a large overlap between the models for Lu. longipalpis and VL cases was detected. Northern and northwestern areas of MS were suitable for the occurrence of cases, but did not show high climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis. ENM of vectors and human cases provided a greater understanding of the geographic distribution of VL in MS, which can be applied to the development of future surveillance strategies.

Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics

PubMed Central

Brook, Barry W.; Hoskin, Conrad J.; Pressey, Robert L.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Williams, Stephen E.

2016-01-01

The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species–area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays—an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur. PMID:27729484

Response of double cropping suitability to climate change in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seifert, Christopher A.; Lobell, David B.

2015-02-01

In adapting US agriculture to the climate of the 21st century, a key unknown is whether cropping frequency may increase, helping to offset projected negative yield impacts in major production regions. Combining daily weather data and crop phenology models, we find that cultivated area in the US suited to dryland winter wheat-soybeans, the most common double crop (DC) system, increased by up to 28% from 1988 to 2012. Changes in the observed distribution of DC area over the same period agree well with this suitability increase, evidence consistent with climate change playing a role in recent DC expansion in phenologically constrained states. We then apply the model to projections of future climate under the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios and estimate an additional 126-239% increase, respectively, in DC area. Sensitivity tests reveal that in most instances, increases in mean temperature are more important than delays in fall freeze in driving increased DC suitability. The results suggest that climate change will relieve phenological constraints on wheat-soy DC systems over much of the United States, though it should be recognized that impacts on corn and soybean yields in this region are expected to be negative and larger in magnitude than the 0.4-0.75% per decade benefits we estimate here for double cropping.

Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability

PubMed Central

Mora, Camilo; Caldwell, Iain R.; Caldwell, Jamie M.; Fisher, Micah R.; Genco, Brandon M.; Running, Steven W.

2015-01-01

Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under “business as usual” (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world’s terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world’s population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people. PMID:26061091

Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability.

PubMed

Mora, Camilo; Caldwell, Iain R; Caldwell, Jamie M; Fisher, Micah R; Genco, Brandon M; Running, Steven W

2015-06-01

Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under "business as usual" (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world's terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world's population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people.

Achieving climate connectivity in a fragmented landscape

PubMed Central

Lawler, Joshua J.; McRae, Brad H.; Nuñez, Tristan A.; Theobald, David M.

2016-01-01

The contiguous United States contains a disconnected patchwork of natural lands. This fragmentation by human activities limits species’ ability to track suitable climates as they rapidly shift. However, most models that project species movement needs have not examined where fragmentation will limit those movements. Here, we quantify climate connectivity, the capacity of landscape configuration to allow species movement in the face of dynamically shifting climate. Using this metric, we assess to what extent habitat fragmentation will limit species movements in response to climate change. We then evaluate how creating corridors to promote climate connectivity could potentially mitigate these restrictions, and we assess where strategies to increase connectivity will be most beneficial. By analyzing fragmentation patterns across the contiguous United States, we demonstrate that only 41% of natural land area retains enough connectivity to allow plants and animals to maintain climatic parity as the climate warms. In the eastern United States, less than 2% of natural area is sufficiently connected. Introducing corridors to facilitate movement through human-dominated regions increases the percentage of climatically connected natural area to 65%, with the most impactful gains in low-elevation regions, particularly in the southeastern United States. These climate connectivity analyses allow ecologists and conservation practitioners to determine the most effective regions for increasing connectivity. More importantly, our findings demonstrate that increasing climate connectivity is critical for allowing species to track rapidly changing climates, reconfiguring habitats to promote access to suitable climates. PMID:27298349

Achieving climate connectivity in a fragmented landscape.

PubMed

McGuire, Jenny L; Lawler, Joshua J; McRae, Brad H; Nuñez, Tristan A; Theobald, David M

2016-06-28

The contiguous United States contains a disconnected patchwork of natural lands. This fragmentation by human activities limits species' ability to track suitable climates as they rapidly shift. However, most models that project species movement needs have not examined where fragmentation will limit those movements. Here, we quantify climate connectivity, the capacity of landscape configuration to allow species movement in the face of dynamically shifting climate. Using this metric, we assess to what extent habitat fragmentation will limit species movements in response to climate change. We then evaluate how creating corridors to promote climate connectivity could potentially mitigate these restrictions, and we assess where strategies to increase connectivity will be most beneficial. By analyzing fragmentation patterns across the contiguous United States, we demonstrate that only 41% of natural land area retains enough connectivity to allow plants and animals to maintain climatic parity as the climate warms. In the eastern United States, less than 2% of natural area is sufficiently connected. Introducing corridors to facilitate movement through human-dominated regions increases the percentage of climatically connected natural area to 65%, with the most impactful gains in low-elevation regions, particularly in the southeastern United States. These climate connectivity analyses allow ecologists and conservation practitioners to determine the most effective regions for increasing connectivity. More importantly, our findings demonstrate that increasing climate connectivity is critical for allowing species to track rapidly changing climates, reconfiguring habitats to promote access to suitable climates.

Evaluation of Land Suitability and Potential Production of Gambir Uncaria gambir Roxb. L) at Salido Saribulan, Pesisir Selatan Regency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuni, Juniarti

2017-04-01

Gambir (Uncaria gambir Roxb. L) is a specific commodity of export in West Sumatra. Area of Gambir tree increases about 8 % per year in West Sumatera and until 1998 its production increased about 17% per year. However, in 1999 its area does not parallel with its production. In the last five years, the volume of export increases about 82.81%, while its value of export reaches US 2.5/kg. Therefore, this commodity has a strategic value for city's earnings. One of predicted causes is the use of unappropriated land. The aim of this research is to measure levels of land suitability in the buffer zone. TNKS (The National Park Kerinci-Seblat) in order to get the area, which is suitable for growing commodity of Gambir tree. To evaluate land suitability, quantitative model from FAO is used by combining environmental data, climate and condition of land (physical and chemical characteristic of the land). Estimation of Radiation Thermal Production Potential (RPP). Every data is measured (rating) individually and included in several mathematical formulas. After that, potential production of a land based on climate (Climate Production Potential) = CPP) is obtained quantitatively. By changing certain variant of this model program, it can predict the result of the plant in another area. By entering the real data of a land plant production, this model can predict the real plant production of land (Land Production Potential= LPP). Salido Saribulan area is included in class of land suitability S3f which is suitable for growing Gambir tree with a limitation factor of nutrient retention. Potential of actual gambir production at Salido Saribulan is 5 ton/ha, which is higher than actual gambir production.

Considerations for building climate-based species distribution models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bucklin, David N.; Basille, Mathieu; Romañach, Stephanie; Brandt, Laura A.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Watling, James I.

2016-01-01

Climate plays an important role in the distribution of species. A given species may adjust to new conditions in-place, move to new areas with suitable climates, or go extinct. Scientists and conservation practitioners use mathematical models to predict the effects of future climate change on wildlife and plan for a biodiverse future. This 8-page fact sheet written by David N. Bucklin, Mathieu Basille, Stephanie S. Romañach, Laura A. Brandt, Frank J. Mazzotti, and James I. Watling and published by the Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation explains how, with a better understanding of species distribution models, we can predict how species may respond to climate change. The models alone cannot tell us how a certain species will actually respond to changes in climate, but they can inform conservation planning that aims to allow species to both adapt in place and (for those that are able to) move to newly suitable areas. Such planning will likely minimize loss of biodiversity due to climate change.

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects

PubMed Central

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping

2018-01-01

Background The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth’s biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. Methods In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a ‘Vulnerable’ species, Pseudolarix amabilis, in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Results Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. Discussion In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time. PMID:29362700

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects.

PubMed

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping; Li, Xiaoqiang

2018-01-01

The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth's biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a 'Vulnerable' species, Pseudolarix amabilis , in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time.

Using Streamflow and Stream Temperature to Assess the Potential Responses of Freshwater Fish to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

VanCompernolle, M.; Ficklin, D. L.; Knouft, J.

2017-12-01

Streamflow and stream temperature are key variables influencing growth, reproduction, and mortality of freshwater fish. Climate-induced changes in these variables are expected to alter the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. Using Maxent, a species distribution model (SDM) based on the principal of maximum entropy, we predicted potential distributional responses of 100 fish species in the Mobile River Basin (MRB) to changes in climate based on contemporary and future streamflow and stream temperature estimates. Geologic, topographic, and landcover data were also included in each SDM to determine the contribution of these physical variables in defining areas of suitable habitat for each species. Using an ensemble of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections under a high emissions scenario, predicted distributions for each species across the MRB were produced for both a historical time period, 1975-1994, and a future time period, 2060-2079, and changes in total area and the percent change in historical suitable habitat for each species were calculated. Results indicate that flow (28%), temperature (29%), and geology (29%), on average, contribute evenly to determining areas of suitable habitat for fish species in the MRB, with landcover and slope playing more limited roles. Temperature contributed slightly more predictive ability to SDMs (31%) for the 77 species experiencing overall declines in areas of suitable habitat, but only 21% for the 23 species gaining habitat across all GCMs. Species are expected to lose between 15-24% of their historical suitable habitat, with threatened and endangered species losing 22-30% and those endemic to the MRB losing 19-28%. Sculpins (Cottidae) are expected to lose the largest amount of historical habitat (up to 84%), while pygmy sunfish (Elassomatidae) are expected to lose less than 1% of historical habitat. Understanding which species may be at risk of habitat loss under future projections of climate change can help fisheries managers better prepare for potential alterations in species composition not only within the MRB, but other watersheds throughout the world.

Potential effects of climate change on members of the Palaeotropical pitcher plant family Nepenthaceae.

PubMed

Gray, Laura K; Clarke, Charles; Wint, G R William; Moran, Jonathan A

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to have profound effects on species distributions over the coming decades. In this paper, we used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to estimate the effects of projected changes in climate on extent of climatically-suitable habitat for two Nepenthes pitcher plant species in Borneo. The model results predicted an increase in area of climatically-suitable habitat for the lowland species Nepenthes rafflesiana by 2100; in contrast, the highland species Nepenthes tentaculata was predicted to undergo significant loss of climatically-suitable habitat over the same period. Based on the results of the models, we recommend that research be undertaken into practical mitigation strategies, as approximately two-thirds of Nepenthes are restricted to montane habitats. Highland species with narrow elevational ranges will be at particularly high risk, and investigation into possible mitigation strategies should be focused on them.

Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faurby, Søren; Araújo, Miguel B.

2018-03-01

Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change most often rely on ecological niche models, in which characterizations of climate suitability are highly contingent on the species range data used. If ranges are far from equilibrium under current environmental conditions, for instance owing to local extinctions in otherwise suitable areas, modelled environmental suitability can be truncated, leading to biased estimates of the effects of climate change. Here we examine the impact of such biases on estimated risks from climate change by comparing models of the distribution of North American mammals based on current ranges with ranges accounting for historical information on species ranges. We find that estimated future diversity, almost everywhere, except in coastal Alaska, is drastically underestimated unless the full historical distribution of the species is included in the models. Consequently forecasts of climate change impacts on biodiversity for many clades are unlikely to be reliable without acknowledging anthropogenic influences on contemporary ranges.

Potential effects of climate change on members of the Palaeotropical pitcher plant family Nepenthaceae

PubMed Central

Gray, Laura K.; Clarke, Charles; Wint, G. R. William

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to have profound effects on species distributions over the coming decades. In this paper, we used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to estimate the effects of projected changes in climate on extent of climatically-suitable habitat for two Nepenthes pitcher plant species in Borneo. The model results predicted an increase in area of climatically-suitable habitat for the lowland species Nepenthes rafflesiana by 2100; in contrast, the highland species Nepenthes tentaculata was predicted to undergo significant loss of climatically-suitable habitat over the same period. Based on the results of the models, we recommend that research be undertaken into practical mitigation strategies, as approximately two-thirds of Nepenthes are restricted to montane habitats. Highland species with narrow elevational ranges will be at particularly high risk, and investigation into possible mitigation strategies should be focused on them. PMID:28817596

Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate.

PubMed

Chai, Shauna-Lee; Zhang, Jian; Nixon, Amy; Nielsen, Scott

2016-01-01

Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta's biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as 'extremely invasive', with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is 'extremely invasive' with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is 'highly invasive' with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change.

Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate

PubMed Central

Chai, Shauna-Lee; Zhang, Jian; Nixon, Amy; Nielsen, Scott

2016-01-01

Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta’s biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as ‘extremely invasive’, with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is ‘extremely invasive’ with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is ‘highly invasive’ with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change. PMID:27768758

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ye, Qing; Yang, Xiaoguang; Dai, Shuwei

Here, we discuss that rice is one of the main crops grown in southern China. Global climate change has significantly altered the local water availability and temperature regime for rice production. In this study, we explored the influence of climate change on suitable rice cropping areas, rice cropping systems and crop water requirements (CWRs) during the growing season for historical (from 1951 to 2010) and future (from 2011 to 2100) time periods. The results indicated that the land areas suitable for rice cropping systems shifted northward and westward from 1951 to 2100 but with different amplitudes.

Designing optimized multi-species monitoring networks to detect range shifts driven by climate change: a case study with bats in the North of Portugal.

PubMed

Amorim, Francisco; Carvalho, Sílvia B; Honrado, João; Rebelo, Hugo

2014-01-01

Here we develop a framework to design multi-species monitoring networks using species distribution models and conservation planning tools to optimize the location of monitoring stations to detect potential range shifts driven by climate change. For this study, we focused on seven bat species in Northern Portugal (Western Europe). Maximum entropy modelling was used to predict the likely occurrence of those species under present and future climatic conditions. By comparing present and future predicted distributions, we identified areas where each species is likely to gain, lose or maintain suitable climatic space. We then used a decision support tool (the Marxan software) to design three optimized monitoring networks considering: a) changes in species likely occurrence, b) species conservation status, and c) level of volunteer commitment. For present climatic conditions, species distribution models revealed that areas suitable for most species occur in the north-eastern part of the region. However, areas predicted to become climatically suitable in the future shifted towards west. The three simulated monitoring networks, adaptable for an unpredictable volunteer commitment, included 28, 54 and 110 sampling locations respectively, distributed across the study area and covering the potential full range of conditions where species range shifts may occur. Our results show that our framework outperforms the traditional approach that only considers current species ranges, in allocating monitoring stations distributed across different categories of predicted shifts in species distributions. This study presents a straightforward framework to design monitoring schemes aimed specifically at testing hypotheses about where and when species ranges may shift with climatic changes, while also ensuring surveillance of general population trends.

Effects of climate change, invasive species, and disease on the distribution of native European crayfishes.

PubMed

Capinha, César; Larson, Eric R; Tricarico, Elena; Olden, Julian D; Gherardi, Francesca

2013-08-01

Climate change will require species to adapt to new conditions or follow preferred climates to higher latitudes or elevations, but many dispersal-limited freshwater species may be unable to move due to barriers imposed by watershed boundaries. In addition, invasive nonnative species may expand into new regions under future climate conditions and contribute to the decline of native species. We evaluated future distributions for the threatened European crayfish fauna in response to climate change, watershed boundaries, and the spread of invasive crayfishes, which transmit the crayfish plague, a lethal disease for native European crayfishes. We used climate projections from general circulation models and statistical models based on Mahalanobis distance to predict climate-suitable regions for native and invasive crayfishes in the middle and at the end of the 21st century. We identified these suitable regions as accessible or inaccessible on the basis of major watershed boundaries and present occurrences and evaluated potential future overlap with 3 invasive North American crayfishes. Climate-suitable areas decreased for native crayfishes by 19% to 72%, and the majority of future suitable areas for most of these species were inaccessible relative to native and current distributions. Overlap with invasive crayfish plague-transmitting species was predicted to increase. Some native crayfish species (e.g., noble crayfish [Astacus astacus]) had no future refugia that were unsuitable for the modeled nonnative species. Our results emphasize the importance of preventing additional introductions and spread of invasive crayfishes in Europe to minimize interactions between the multiple stressors of climate change and invasive species, while suggesting candidate regions for the debatable management option of assisted colonization. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

2009-09-01

Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures

PubMed Central

Olson, Deanna H.; Blaustein, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats. PMID:27513565

Recent and projected future climatic suitability of North America for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus.

PubMed

Ogden, Nicholas H; Milka, Radojević; Caminade, Cyril; Gachon, Philippe

2014-12-02

Since the 1980s, populations of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus have become established in south-eastern, eastern and central United States, extending to approximately 40°N. Ae. albopictus is a vector of a wide range of human pathogens including dengue and chikungunya viruses, which are currently emerging in the Caribbean and Central America and posing a threat to North America. The risk of Ae. albopictus expanding its geographic range in North America under current and future climate was assessed using three climatic indicators of Ae. albopictus survival: overwintering conditions (OW), OW combined with annual air temperature (OWAT), and a linear index of precipitation and air temperature suitability expressed through a sigmoidal function (SIG). The capacity of these indicators to predict Ae. albopictus occurrence was evaluated using surveillance data from the United States. Projected future climatic suitability for Ae. albopictus was obtained using output of nine Regional Climate Model experiments (RCMs). OW and OWAT showed >90% specificity and sensitivity in predicting observed Ae. albopictus occurrence and also predicted moderate to high risk of Ae. albopictus invasion in Pacific coastal areas of the Unites States and Canada under current climate. SIG also well predicted observed Ae. albopictus occurrence (ROC area under the curve was 0.92) but predicted wider current climatic suitability in the north-central and north-eastern United States and south-eastern Canada. RCM output projected modest (circa 500 km) future northward range expansion of Ae. albopictus by the 2050s when using OW and OWAT indicators, but greater (600-1000 km) range expansion, particularly in eastern and central Canada, when using the SIG indicator. Variation in future possible distributions of Ae. albopictus was greater amongst the climatic indicators used than amongst the RCM experiments. Current Ae. albopictus distributions were well predicted by simple climatic indicators and northward range expansion was predicted for the future with climate change. However, current and future predicted geographic distributions of Ae. albopictus varied amongst the climatic indicators used. Further field studies are needed to assess which climatic indicator is the most accurate in predicting regions suitable for Ae. albopictus survival in North America.

Dispersal will limit ability of mammals to track climate change in the Western Hemisphere

PubMed Central

Schloss, Carrie A.; Nuñez, Tristan A.; Lawler, Joshua J.

2012-01-01

As they have in response to past climatic changes, many species will shift their distributions in response to modern climate change. However, due to the unprecedented rapidity of projected climatic changes, some species may not be able to move their ranges fast enough to track shifts in suitable climates and associated habitats. Here, we investigate the ability of 493 mammals to keep pace with projected climatic changes in the Western Hemisphere. We modeled the velocities at which species will likely need to move to keep pace with projected changes in suitable climates. We compared these velocities with the velocities at which species are able to move as a function of dispersal distances and dispersal frequencies. Across the Western Hemisphere, on average, 9.2% of mammals at a given location will likely be unable to keep pace with climate change. In some places, up to 39% of mammals may be unable to track shifts in suitable climates. Eighty-seven percent of mammalian species are expected to experience reductions in range size and 20% of these range reductions will likely be due to limited dispersal abilities as opposed to reductions in the area of suitable climate. Because climate change will likely outpace the response capacity of many mammals, mammalian vulnerability to climate change may be more extensive than previously anticipated. PMID:22586104

Modeling the habitat suitability for the arbovirus vector Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Germany.

PubMed

Koch, Lisa K; Cunze, Sarah; Werblow, Antje; Kochmann, Judith; Dörge, Dorian D; Mehlhorn, Heinz; Klimpel, Sven

2016-03-01

Climatic changes raise the risk of re-emergence of arthropod-borne virus outbreaks globally. These viruses are transmitted by arthropod vectors, often mosquitoes. Due to increasing worldwide trade and tourism, these vector species are often accidentally introduced into many countries beyond their former distribution range. Aedes albopictus, a well-known disease vector, was detected for the first time in Germany in 2007, but seems to have failed establishment until today. However, the species is known to occur in other temperate regions and a risk for establishment in Germany remains, especially in the face of predicted climate change. Thus, the goal of the study was to estimate the potential distribution of Ae. albopictus in Germany. We used ecological niche modeling in order to estimate the potential habitat suitability for this species under current and projected future climatic conditions. According to our model, there are already two areas in western and southern Germany that appear suitable for Ae. albopictus under current climatic conditions. One of these areas lies in Baden-Wuerttemberg, the other in North-Rhine Westphalia in the Ruhr region. Furthermore, projections under future climatic conditions show an increase of the modeled habitat suitability throughout Germany. Ae. albopictus is supposed to be better acclimated to colder temperatures than other tropical vectors and thus, might become, triggered by climate change, a serious threat to public health in Germany. Our modeling results can help optimizing the design of monitoring programs currently in place in Germany.

[Production regionalization study of Chinese angelica based on MaxEnt model].

PubMed

Yan, Hui; Zhang, Xiao-Bo; Zhu, Shou-Dong; Qian, Da-Wei; Guo, Lan-Ping; Huang, Lu-Qi; Duan, Jin-Ao

2016-09-01

The distribution information of Chinese angelica was collected by interview investigation and field survey, and 43 related environmental factors were collected, some kinds of functional chemical constituents of Angelica sinensis were analyzed. Integrated climate, topography and other related ecological factors, the habitat suitability study was conducted based on Arc geographic information system(ArcGIS),and maximum entropy model. Application of R language to establish the relationship between the effective component of Chinese angelica and enviromental factors model, using ArcGIS software space to carry out space calculation method for the quality regionalization of Chinese angelica. The results showed that 4 major ecological factors had obvious influence on ecology suitability distributions of Chinese angelica, including altitude, soil sub category, May precipitation and the warmest month of the highest temperature, et al. It is suitable for the living habits of the Chinese angelica, cold and humid climate, which is suitable for the deep area of the soil. In addition, the ecological suitability regionalization based on the effect of Chinese angelica also provides a new suitable distribution area other than the traditional distribution area, which provides a scientific basis for the reasonable introduction of Chinese angelica. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Niemitz, Franziska; Reineking, Björn; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

2011-07-01

During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus ( Ae. albopictus) has rapidly spread around the globe. The spread of this species raises serious public health concerns. Here, we model the present distribution and the future climatic suitability of Europe for this vector in the face of climate change. In order to achieve the most realistic current prediction and future projection, we compare the performance of four different modelling approaches, differentiated by the selection of climate variables (based on expert knowledge vs. statistical criteria) and by the geographical range of presence records (native range vs. global range). First, models of the native and global range were built with MaxEnt and were either based on (1) statistically selected climatic input variables or (2) input variables selected with expert knowledge from the literature. Native models show high model performance (AUC: 0.91-0.94) for the native range, but do not predict the European distribution well (AUC: 0.70-0.72). Models based on the global distribution of the species, however, were able to identify all regions where Ae. albopictus is currently established, including Europe (AUC: 0.89-0.91). In a second step, the modelled bioclimatic envelope of the global range was projected to future climatic conditions in Europe using two emission scenarios implemented in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for three time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. For both global-driven models, the results indicate that climatically suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. albopictus will increase in western and central Europe already in 2011-2040 and with a temporal delay in eastern Europe. On the other hand, a decline in climatically suitable areas in southern Europe is pronounced in the Expert knowledge based model. Our projections appear unaffected by non-analogue climate, as this is not detected by Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis. The generated risk maps can aid in identifying suitable habitats for Ae. albopictus and hence support monitoring and control activities to avoid disease vector establishment.

Suitability Analysis and Projected Climate Change Impact on Banana and Coffee Production Zones in Nepal

PubMed Central

Sujakhu, Nani M.; Merz, Juerg; Kindt, Roeland; Xu, Jianchu; Matin, Mir A.; Ali, Mostafa; Zomer, Robert J.

2016-01-01

The Government of Nepal has identified opportunities in agricultural commercialization, responding to a growing internal demand and expansion of export markets to reduce the immense trade deficit. Several cash crops, including coffee and bananas, have been identified in the recently approved Agriculture Development Strategy. Both of these crops have encouraged smallholder farmers to convert their subsistence farming practices to more commercial cultivation. Identification of suitable agro-ecological zones and understanding climate-related issues are important for improved production and livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Here, the suitability of coffee and banana crops is analyzed for different agro-ecological zones represented by Global Environmental Stratification (GEnS). Future shifts in these suitability zones are also predicted. Plantation sites in Nepal were geo-referenced and used as input in species distribution modelling. The multi-model ensemble model suggests that climate change will reduce the suitable growing area for coffee by about 72% across the selected emission scenarios from now to 2050. Impacts are low for banana growing, with a reduction in suitability by about 16% by 2050. Bananas show a lot of potential for playing an important role in Nepal as a sustainable crop in the context of climate change, as this study indicates that the amount of area suited to banana growing will grow by 40% by 2050. Based on our analysis we recommend possible new locations for coffee plantations and one method for mitigating climate change-related problems on existing plantations. These findings are expected to support planning and policy dialogue for mitigation and support better informed and scientifically based decision-making relating to these two crops. PMID:27689354

Refining climate change projections for organisms with low dispersal abilities: a case study of the Caspian whip snake.

PubMed

Sahlean, Tiberiu C; Gherghel, Iulian; Papeş, Monica; Strugariu, Alexandru; Zamfirescu, Ştefan R

2014-01-01

Climate warming is one of the most important threats to biodiversity. Ectothermic organisms such as amphibians and reptiles are especially vulnerable as climatic conditions affect them directly. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are increasingly popular in ecological studies, but several drawbacks exist, including the limited ability to account for the dispersal potential of the species. In this study, we use ENMs to explore the impact of global climate change on the Caspian whip snake (Dolichophis caspius) as model for organisms with low dispersal abilities and to quantify dispersal to novel areas using GIS techniques. Models generated using Maxent 3.3.3 k and GARP for current distribution were projected on future climatic scenarios. A cost-distance analysis was run in ArcGIS 10 using geomorphological features, ecological conditions, and human footprint as "costs" to dispersal of the species to obtain a Maximum Dispersal Range (MDR) estimate. All models developed were statistically significant (P<0.05) and recovered the currently known distribution of D. caspius. Models projected on future climatic conditions using Maxent predicted a doubling of suitable climatic area, while GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. Both models agreed on an expansion of suitable area northwards, with minor decreases at the southern distribution limit. The MDR area calculated using the Maxent model represented a third of the total area of the projected model. The MDR based on GARP models recovered only about 20% of the total area of the projected model. Thus, incorporating measures of species' dispersal abilities greatly reduced estimated area of potential future distributions.

Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics.

PubMed

Fordham, Damien A; Brook, Barry W; Hoskin, Conrad J; Pressey, Robert L; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Williams, Stephen E

2016-10-01

The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species-area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays-an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur. © 2016 The Author(s).

Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrarini, Alessandro; Alsafran, Mohammed H. S. A.; Dai, Junhu; Alatalo, Juha M.

2018-04-01

Empirical works to assist in choosing climatically relevant variables in the attempt to predict climate change impacts on plant species are limited. Further uncertainties arise in choice of an appropriate niche model. In this study we devised and tested a sharp methodological framework, based on stringent variable ranking and filtering and flexible model selection, to minimize uncertainty in both niche modelling and successive projection of plant species distributions. We used our approach to develop an accurate, parsimonious model of Silene acaulis (L.) presence/absence on the British Isles and to project its presence/absence under climate change. The approach suggests the importance of (a) defining a reduced set of climate variables, actually relevant to species presence/absence, from an extensive list of climate predictors, and (b) considering climate extremes instead of, or together with, climate averages in projections of plant species presence/absence under future climate scenarios. Our methodological approach reduced the number of relevant climate predictors by 95.23% (from 84 to only 4), while simultaneously achieving high cross-validated accuracy (97.84%) confirming enhanced model performance. Projections produced under different climate scenarios suggest that S. acaulis will likely face climate-driven fast decline in suitable areas on the British Isles, and that upward and northward shifts to occupy new climatically suitable areas are improbable in the future. Our results also imply that conservation measures for S. acaulis based upon assisted colonization are unlikely to succeed on the British Isles due to the absence of climatically suitable habitat, so different conservation actions (seed banks and/or botanical gardens) are needed.

Next-generation invaders? Hotspots for naturalised sleeper weeds in Australia under future climates.

PubMed

Duursma, Daisy Englert; Gallagher, Rachael V; Roger, Erin; Hughes, Lesley; Downey, Paul O; Leishman, Michelle R

2013-01-01

Naturalised, but not yet invasive plants, pose a nascent threat to biodiversity. As climate regimes continue to change, it is likely that a new suite of invaders will emerge from the established pool of naturalised plants. Pre-emptive management of locations that may be most suitable for a large number of potentially invasive plants will help to target monitoring, and is vital for effective control. We used species distribution models (SDM) and invasion-hotspot analysis to determine where in Australia suitable habitat may occur for 292 naturalised plants. SDMs were built in MaxEnt using both climate and soil variables for current baseline conditions. Modelled relationships were projected onto two Representative Concentration Pathways for future climates (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), based on seven global climate models, for two time periods (2035, 2065). Model outputs for each of the 292 species were then aggregated into single 'hotspot' maps at two scales: continental, and for each of Australia's 37 ecoregions. Across Australia, areas in the south-east and south-west corners of the continent were identified as potential hotspots for naturalised plants under current and future climates. These regions provided suitable habitat for 288 and 239 species respectively under baseline climates. The areal extent of the continental hotspot was projected to decrease by 8.8% under climates for 2035, and by a further 5.2% by 2065. A similar pattern of hotspot contraction under future climates was seen for the majority of ecoregions examined. However, two ecoregions - Tasmanian temperate forests and Australian Alps montane grasslands - showed increases in the areal extent of hotspots of >45% under climate scenarios for 2065. The alpine ecoregion also had an increase in the number of naturalised plant species with abiotically suitable habitat under future climate scenarios, indicating that this area may be particularly vulnerable to future incursions by naturalised plants.

Next-Generation Invaders? Hotspots for Naturalised Sleeper Weeds in Australia under Future Climates

PubMed Central

Roger, Erin; Hughes, Lesley; Downey, Paul O.; Leishman, Michelle R.

2013-01-01

Naturalised, but not yet invasive plants, pose a nascent threat to biodiversity. As climate regimes continue to change, it is likely that a new suite of invaders will emerge from the established pool of naturalised plants. Pre-emptive management of locations that may be most suitable for a large number of potentially invasive plants will help to target monitoring, and is vital for effective control. We used species distribution models (SDM) and invasion-hotspot analysis to determine where in Australia suitable habitat may occur for 292 naturalised plants. SDMs were built in MaxEnt using both climate and soil variables for current baseline conditions. Modelled relationships were projected onto two Representative Concentration Pathways for future climates (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), based on seven global climate models, for two time periods (2035, 2065). Model outputs for each of the 292 species were then aggregated into single ‘hotspot’ maps at two scales: continental, and for each of Australia’s 37 ecoregions. Across Australia, areas in the south-east and south-west corners of the continent were identified as potential hotspots for naturalised plants under current and future climates. These regions provided suitable habitat for 288 and 239 species respectively under baseline climates. The areal extent of the continental hotspot was projected to decrease by 8.8% under climates for 2035, and by a further 5.2% by 2065. A similar pattern of hotspot contraction under future climates was seen for the majority of ecoregions examined. However, two ecoregions - Tasmanian temperate forests and Australian Alps montane grasslands - showed increases in the areal extent of hotspots of >45% under climate scenarios for 2065. The alpine ecoregion also had an increase in the number of naturalised plant species with abiotically suitable habitat under future climate scenarios, indicating that this area may be particularly vulnerable to future incursions by naturalised plants. PMID:24386353

Geographical patterns in climate and agricultural technology drive soybean productivity in Brazil

PubMed Central

Caetano, Jordana Moura; Tessarolo, Geiziane; de Oliveira, Guilherme; Souza, Kelly da Silva e; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola

2018-01-01

The impacts of global climate change have been a worldwide concern for several research areas, including those dealing with resources essential to human well being, such as agriculture, which directly impact economic activities and food security. Here we evaluate the relative effect of climate (as indicated by the Ecological Niche Model—ENM) and agricultural technology on actual soybean productivity in Brazilian municipalities and estimate the future geographic distribution of soybeans using a novel statistical approach allowing the evaluation of partial coefficients in a non-stationary (Geographically Weighted Regression; GWR) model. We found that technology was more important than climate in explaining soybean productivity in Brazil. However, some municipalities are more dependent on environmental suitability (mainly in Southern Brazil). The future environmental suitability for soybean cultivation tends to decrease by up 50% in the central region of Brazil. Meanwhile, southern-most Brazil will have more favourable conditions, with an increase of ca. 25% in environmental suitability. Considering that opening new areas for cultivation can degrade environmental quality, we suggest that, in the face of climate change impacts on soybean cultivation, the Brazilian government and producers must invest in breeding programmes and more general ecosystem-based strategies for adaptation to climate change, including the development of varieties tolerant to climate stress, and strategies to increase productivity and reduce costs (social and environmental). PMID:29381755

Geographical patterns in climate and agricultural technology drive soybean productivity in Brazil.

PubMed

Caetano, Jordana Moura; Tessarolo, Geiziane; de Oliveira, Guilherme; Souza, Kelly da Silva E; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola; Nabout, João Carlos

2018-01-01

The impacts of global climate change have been a worldwide concern for several research areas, including those dealing with resources essential to human well being, such as agriculture, which directly impact economic activities and food security. Here we evaluate the relative effect of climate (as indicated by the Ecological Niche Model-ENM) and agricultural technology on actual soybean productivity in Brazilian municipalities and estimate the future geographic distribution of soybeans using a novel statistical approach allowing the evaluation of partial coefficients in a non-stationary (Geographically Weighted Regression; GWR) model. We found that technology was more important than climate in explaining soybean productivity in Brazil. However, some municipalities are more dependent on environmental suitability (mainly in Southern Brazil). The future environmental suitability for soybean cultivation tends to decrease by up 50% in the central region of Brazil. Meanwhile, southern-most Brazil will have more favourable conditions, with an increase of ca. 25% in environmental suitability. Considering that opening new areas for cultivation can degrade environmental quality, we suggest that, in the face of climate change impacts on soybean cultivation, the Brazilian government and producers must invest in breeding programmes and more general ecosystem-based strategies for adaptation to climate change, including the development of varieties tolerant to climate stress, and strategies to increase productivity and reduce costs (social and environmental).

Mapping the climatic suitable habitat of oriental arborvitae (Platycladus orientalis) for introduction and cultivation at a global scale.

PubMed

Li, Guoqing; Du, Sheng; Wen, Zhongming

2016-07-21

Oriental arborvitae (Platycladus orientalis) is an important afforestation and ornamental tree species, which is native in eastern Asian. Therefore, a global suitable habitat map for oriental arborvitae is urgently needed for global promotion and cultivation. Here, the potential habitat and climatic requirements of oriental arborvitae at global scale were simulated using herbariums data and 13 thermal-moisture variables as input data for maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The simulation performance of MaxEnt is evaluated by ten-fold cross-validation and a jackknife procedure. Results show that the potential habitat and climate envelop of oriental arborvitae can be successfully simulated by MaxEnt at global scale, with a mean test AUC value of 0.93 and mean training AUC value of 0.95. Thermal factors play more important roles than moisture factors in controlling the distribution boundary of oriental arborvitae's potential ranges. There are about 50 countries suitable for introduction and cultivation of oriental arborvitae with an area of 2.0 × 10(7) km(2), which occupied 13.8% of land area on the earth. This unique study will provide valuable information and insights needed to identify new regions with climatically suitable habitats for cultivation and introduction of oriental arborvitae around the world.

Mapping the climatic suitable habitat of oriental arborvitae (Platycladus orientalis) for introduction and cultivation at a global scale

PubMed Central

Li, Guoqing; Du, Sheng; Wen, Zhongming

2016-01-01

Oriental arborvitae (Platycladus orientalis) is an important afforestation and ornamental tree species, which is native in eastern Asian. Therefore, a global suitable habitat map for oriental arborvitae is urgently needed for global promotion and cultivation. Here, the potential habitat and climatic requirements of oriental arborvitae at global scale were simulated using herbariums data and 13 thermal-moisture variables as input data for maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The simulation performance of MaxEnt is evaluated by ten-fold cross-validation and a jackknife procedure. Results show that the potential habitat and climate envelop of oriental arborvitae can be successfully simulated by MaxEnt at global scale, with a mean test AUC value of 0.93 and mean training AUC value of 0.95. Thermal factors play more important roles than moisture factors in controlling the distribution boundary of oriental arborvitae’s potential ranges. There are about 50 countries suitable for introduction and cultivation of oriental arborvitae with an area of 2.0 × 107 km2, which occupied 13.8% of land area on the earth. This unique study will provide valuable information and insights needed to identify new regions with climatically suitable habitats for cultivation and introduction of oriental arborvitae around the world. PMID:27443221

Assessing vulnerable and expanding vegetation stands and species in the San Francisco Bay Area for conservation management under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morueta-Holme, N.; Heller, N. E.; McLaughlin, B.; Weiss, S. B.; Ackerly, D.

2015-12-01

The distribution of suitable climatic areas for species and vegetation types is expected to shift due to ongoing climate change. While the pace at which current distributions will shift is hard to quantify, predictions of where climatically suitable areas will be in the future can allow us to map 1) areas currently occupied by a species or vegetation type unlikely to persist through the end of this century (vulnerable stands), 2) areas likely to do better in the future and serve as nuclei for population expansion (expanding stands), and 3) areas likely to act as climate refugia (persisting stands). We quantified the vulnerability of 27 individual plant species and 27 vegetation types in the San Francisco Bay Area as well as the conservation importance, vulnerability, and resilience of selected management sites for climate change resilient conservation. To this end, we developed California-wide models of species and vegetation distributions using climate data from the 2014 California Basin Characterization Model at a 270 m resolution, projected to 18 different end-of century climate change scenarios. Combining these distribution models with high resolution maps of current vegetation, we were able to map projected vulnerable, expanding, and persisting stands within the Bay Area. We show that vegetation and species are expected to shift considerably within the study region over the next decades; although we also identify refugia potentially able to offset some of the negative impacts of climate change. We discuss the implications for managers that wish to incorporate climate change in conservation decisions, in particular related to choosing species for restoration, identifying areas to collect seeds for restoration, and preparing for expected major vegetation changes. Our evaluation of individual management sites highlights the need for stronger coordination of efforts across sites to prioritize monitoring and protection of species whose ranges are contracting elsewhere. Finally, we present and discuss novel ways in visualizing and communicating condensed predictions and their uncertainty to land managers and challenges inherent. This work is part of the Terrestrial Biodiversity and Climate Change Collaborative, committed to developing a scientific basis for climate adaptation conservation strategies.

Matching species traits to projected threats and opportunities from climate change

PubMed Central

Garcia, Raquel A; Araújo, Miguel B; Burgess, Neil D; Foden, Wendy B; Gutsche, Alexander; Rahbek, Carsten; Cabeza, Mar

2014-01-01

Aim Climate change can lead to decreased climatic suitability within species' distributions, increased fragmentation of climatically suitable space, and/or emergence of newly suitable areas outside present distributions. Each of these extrinsic threats and opportunities potentially interacts with specific intrinsic traits of species, yet this specificity is seldom considered in risk assessments. We present an analytical framework for examining projections of climate change-induced threats and opportunities with reference to traits that are likely to mediate species' responses, and illustrate the applicability of the framework. Location Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We applied the framework to 195 sub-Saharan African amphibians with both available bioclimatic envelope model projections for the mid-21st century and trait data. Excluded were 500 narrow-ranging species mainly from montane areas. For each of projected losses, increased fragmentation and gains of climate space, we selected potential response-mediating traits and examined the spatial overlap with vulnerability due to these traits. We examined the overlap for all species, and individually for groups of species with different combinations of threats and opportunities. Results In the Congo Basin and arid Southern Africa, projected losses for wide-ranging amphibians were compounded by sensitivity to climatic variation, and expected gains were precluded by poor dispersal ability. The spatial overlap between exposure and vulnerability was more pronounced for species projected to have their climate space contracting in situ or shifting to distant geographical areas. Our results exclude the potential exposure of narrow-ranging species to shrinking climates in the African tropical mountains. Main conclusions We illustrate the application of a framework combining spatial projections of climate change exposure with traits that are likely to mediate species' responses. Although the proposed framework carries several assumptions that require further scrutiny, its application adds a degree of realism to familiar assessments that consider all species to be equally affected by climate change-induced threats and opportunities. PMID:25505356

Projecting environmental suitable areas for malaria transmission in China under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Hundessa, Samuel; Li, Shanshan; Liu, De Li; Guo, Jinpeng; Guo, Yuming; Zhang, Wenyi; Williams, Gail

2018-04-01

The proportion of imported malaria cases in China has increased over recent years, and has presented challenges for the malaria elimination program in China. However, little is known about the geographic distribution and environmental suitability for malaria transmission under projected climate change scenarios. Using the MaxEnt model based on malaria presence-only records, we produced environmental suitability maps and examined the relative contribution of topographic, demographic, and environmental risk factors for P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria in China. The MaxEnt model estimated that environmental suitability areas (ESAs) for malaria cover the central, south, southwest, east and northern regions, with a slightly wider range of ESAs extending to the northeast region for P. falciparum. There was spatial agreement between the location of imported cases and area environmentally suitable for malaria transmission. The ESAs of P. vivax and P. falciparum are projected to increase in some parts of southwest, south, central, north and northeast regions in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, by a greater amount for P. falciparum under the RCP8.5 scenario. Temperature and NDVI values were the most influential in defining the ESAs for P. vivax, and temperature and precipitation the most influential for P. falciparum malaria. This study estimated that the ESA for malaria transmission in China will increase with climate change and highlights the potential establishment of further local transmission. This model should be used to support malaria control by targeting areas where interventions on malaria transmission need to be enhanced. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change.

PubMed

Descombes, Patrice; Wisz, Mary S; Leprieur, Fabien; Parravicini, Valerianio; Heine, Christian; Olsen, Steffen M; Swingedouw, Didier; Kulbicki, Michel; Mouillot, David; Pellissier, Loïc

2015-01-21

Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change, Northern Birds of Conservation Concern and Matching the Hotspots of Habitat Suitability with the Reserve Network

PubMed Central

Virkkala, Raimo; Heikkinen, Risto K.; Fronzek, Stefan; Leikola, Niko

2013-01-01

National reserve networks are one of the most important means of species conservation, but their efficiency may be diminished due to the projected climatic changes. Using bioclimatic envelope models and spatial data on habitats and conservation areas, we studied how efficient the reserve network will be in preserving 100 forest, mire, marshland, and alpine bird species of conservation concern in Finland in 2051–2080 under three different climate scenarios. The occurrences of the studied bird species were related to the amount of habitat preferred by each species in the different boreal zones. We employed a novel integrated habitat suitability index that takes into account both the species’ probability of occurrence from the bioclimatic models and the availability of suitable habitat. Using this suitability index, the distribution of the topmost 5% suitability squares (“hotspots”) in the four bird species groups in the period 1971–2000 and under the three scenarios were compared with the location of reserves with the highest amounts of the four habitats to study the efficiency of the network. In species of mires, marshlands, and Arctic mountains, a high proportion of protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots in the scenarios in 2051–2080, showing that protected areas cover a high proportion of occurrences of bird species. In contrast, in forests in the southern and middle boreal zones, only a small proportion of the protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots, indicating that the efficiency of the protected area network will be insufficient for forest birds in the future. In the northern boreal zone, the efficiency of the reserve network in forests was highly dependent on the strength of climate change varying between the scenarios. Overall, there is no single solution to preserving biodiversity in a changing climate, but several future pathways should be considered. PMID:23700420

Climate change, northern birds of conservation concern and matching the hotspots of habitat suitability with the reserve network.

PubMed

Virkkala, Raimo; Heikkinen, Risto K; Fronzek, Stefan; Leikola, Niko

2013-01-01

National reserve networks are one of the most important means of species conservation, but their efficiency may be diminished due to the projected climatic changes. Using bioclimatic envelope models and spatial data on habitats and conservation areas, we studied how efficient the reserve network will be in preserving 100 forest, mire, marshland, and alpine bird species of conservation concern in Finland in 2051-2080 under three different climate scenarios. The occurrences of the studied bird species were related to the amount of habitat preferred by each species in the different boreal zones. We employed a novel integrated habitat suitability index that takes into account both the species' probability of occurrence from the bioclimatic models and the availability of suitable habitat. Using this suitability index, the distribution of the topmost 5% suitability squares ("hotspots") in the four bird species groups in the period 1971-2000 and under the three scenarios were compared with the location of reserves with the highest amounts of the four habitats to study the efficiency of the network. In species of mires, marshlands, and Arctic mountains, a high proportion of protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots in the scenarios in 2051-2080, showing that protected areas cover a high proportion of occurrences of bird species. In contrast, in forests in the southern and middle boreal zones, only a small proportion of the protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots, indicating that the efficiency of the protected area network will be insufficient for forest birds in the future. In the northern boreal zone, the efficiency of the reserve network in forests was highly dependent on the strength of climate change varying between the scenarios. Overall, there is no single solution to preserving biodiversity in a changing climate, but several future pathways should be considered.

Suitable areas of Phakopsora pachyrhizi, Spodoptera exigua, and their host plant Phaseolus vulgaris are projected to reduce and shift due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez-Cabral, Nadiezhda Yakovleva Zitz; Kumar, Lalit; Shabani, Farzin

2018-01-01

Worldwide, crop pests (CPs) such as pathogens and insects affect agricultural production detrimentally. Species distribution models can be used for projecting current and future suitability of CPs and host crop localities. Our study overlays the distribution of two CPs (Asian soybean rust and beet armyworm) and common bean, a potential host of them, in order to determine their current and future levels of coexistence. This kind of modeling approach has rarely been performed previously in climate change studies. The soybean rust and beet armyworm model projections herein show a reduction of the worldwide area with high and medium suitability of both CPs and a movement of them away from the Equator, in 2100 more pronounced than in 2050. Most likely, heat and dry stress will be responsible for these changes. Heat and dry stress will greatly reduce and shift the future suitable cultivation area of common bean as well, in a similar manner. The most relevant findings of this study were the reduction of the suitable areas for the CPs, the reduction of the risk under future scenarios, and the similarity of trends for the CPs and host. The current results highlight the relation between and the coevolution of host and pathogens.

Impacts of temperature on giant panda habitat in the north Minshan Mountains.

PubMed

Liu, Gang; Guan, Tianpei; Dai, Qiang; Li, Huixin; Gong, Minghao

2016-02-01

Understanding the impacts of meteorological factors on giant pandas is necessary for future conservation measures in response to global climate change. We integrated temperature data with three main habitat parameters (elevation, vegetation type, and bamboo species) to evaluate the influence of climate change on giant panda habitat in the northern Minshan Mountains using a habitat assessment model. Our study shows that temperature (relative importance = 25.1%) was the second most important variable influencing giant panda habitat excepting the elevation. There was a significant negative correlation between temperature and panda presence (ρ = -0.133, P < 0.05), and the temperature range preferred by giant pandas within the study area was 18-21°C, followed by 15-17°C and 22-24°C. The overall suitability of giant panda habitats will increase by 2.7%, however, it showed a opposite variation patterns between the eastern and northwestern region of the study area. Suitable and subsuitable habitats in the northwestern region of the study area, which is characterized by higher elevation and latitude, will increase by 18007.8 hm(2) (9.8% habitat suitability), while the eastern region will suffer a decrease of 9543.5 hm(2) (7.1% habitat suitability). Our results suggest that increasing areas of suitable giant panda habitat will support future giant panda expansion, and food shortage and insufficient living space will not arise as problems in the northwest Minshan Mountains, which means that giant pandas can adapt to climate change, and therefore may be resilient to climate change. Thus, for the safety and survival of giant pandas in the Baishuijiang Reserve, we propose strengthening the giant panda monitoring program in the west and improving the integrity of habitats to promote population dispersal with adjacent populations in the east.

Zoom in at African country level: potential climate induced changes in areas of suitability for survival of malaria vectors.

PubMed

Tonnang, Henri E Z; Tchouassi, David P; Juarez, Henry S; Igweta, Lilian K; Djouaka, Rousseau F

2014-05-07

Predicting anopheles vectors' population densities and boundary shifts is crucial in preparing for malaria risks and unanticipated outbreaks. Although shifts in the distribution and boundaries of the major malaria vectors (Anopheles gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis) across Africa have been predicted, quantified areas of absolute change in zone of suitability for their survival have not been defined. In this study, we have quantified areas of absolute change conducive for the establishment and survival of these vectors, per African country, under two climate change scenarios and based on our findings, highlight practical measures for effective malaria control in the face of changing climatic patterns. We developed a model using CLIMEX simulation platform to estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of these malaria vectors in relation to climatic factors (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity). The model yielded an eco-climatic index (EI) describing the total favourable geographical locations for the species. The EI values were classified and exported to a GIS package. Using ArcGIS, the EI shape points were clipped to the extent of Africa and then converted to a raster layer using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. Generated maps were then transformed into polygon-based geo-referenced data set and their areas computed and expressed in square kilometers (km(2)). Five classes of EI were derived indicating the level of survivorship of these malaria vectors. The proportion of areas increasing or decreasing in level of survival of these malaria vectors will be more pronounced in eastern and southern African countries than those in western Africa. Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa and Zambia appear most likely to be affected in terms of absolute change of malaria vectors suitability zones under the selected climate change scenarios. The potential shifts of these malaria vectors have implications for human exposure to malaria, as recrudescence of the disease is likely to be recorded in several new areas and regions. Therefore, the need to develop, compile and share malaria preventive measures, which can be adapted to different climatic scenarios, remains crucial.

Zoom in at African country level: potential climate induced changes in areas of suitability for survival of malaria vectors

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Predicting anopheles vectors’ population densities and boundary shifts is crucial in preparing for malaria risks and unanticipated outbreaks. Although shifts in the distribution and boundaries of the major malaria vectors (Anopheles gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis) across Africa have been predicted, quantified areas of absolute change in zone of suitability for their survival have not been defined. In this study, we have quantified areas of absolute change conducive for the establishment and survival of these vectors, per African country, under two climate change scenarios and based on our findings, highlight practical measures for effective malaria control in the face of changing climatic patterns. Methods We developed a model using CLIMEX simulation platform to estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of these malaria vectors in relation to climatic factors (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity). The model yielded an eco-climatic index (EI) describing the total favourable geographical locations for the species. The EI values were classified and exported to a GIS package. Using ArcGIS, the EI shape points were clipped to the extent of Africa and then converted to a raster layer using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. Generated maps were then transformed into polygon-based geo-referenced data set and their areas computed and expressed in square kilometers (km2). Results Five classes of EI were derived indicating the level of survivorship of these malaria vectors. The proportion of areas increasing or decreasing in level of survival of these malaria vectors will be more pronounced in eastern and southern African countries than those in western Africa. Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa and Zambia appear most likely to be affected in terms of absolute change of malaria vectors suitability zones under the selected climate change scenarios. Conclusion The potential shifts of these malaria vectors have implications for human exposure to malaria, as recrudescence of the disease is likely to be recorded in several new areas and regions. Therefore, the need to develop, compile and share malaria preventive measures, which can be adapted to different climatic scenarios, remains crucial. PMID:24885061

A comparative modeling study on non-climatic and climatic risk assessment on Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus)

PubMed Central

Shafapour Tehrany, Mahyat; Solhjouy-fard, Samaneh; Kumar, Lalit

2018-01-01

Aedes albopictus, the Asian Tiger Mosquito, vector of Chikungunya, Dengue Fever and Zika viruses, has proven its hardy adaptability in expansion from its natural Asian, forest edge, tree hole habitat on the back of international trade transportation, re-establishing in temperate urban surrounds, in a range of water receptacles and semi-enclosures of organic matter. Conventional aerial spray mosquito vector controls focus on wetland and stagnant water expanses, proven to miss the protected hollows and crevices favoured by Ae. albopictus. New control or eradication strategies are thus essential, particular in light of potential expansions in the southeastern and eastern USA. Successful regional vector control strategies require risk level analysis. Should strategies prioritize regions with non-climatic or climatic suitability parameters for Ae. albopictus? Our study used current Ae. albopictus distribution data to develop two independent models: (i) regions with suitable non-climatic factors, and (ii) regions with suitable climate for Ae. albopictus in southeastern USA. Non-climatic model processing used Evidential Belief Function (EBF), together with six geographical conditioning factors (raster data layers), to establish the probability index. Validation of the analysis results was estimated with area under the curve (AUC) using Ae. albopictus presence data. Climatic modeling was based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs), Miroc3.2 and CSIRO-MK30 running the RCP 8.5 scenario in MaxEnt software. EBF non-climatic model results achieved a 0.70 prediction rate and 0.73 success rate, confirming suitability of the study site regions for Ae. albopictus establishment. The climatic model results showed the best-fit model comprised Coldest Quarter Mean Temp, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter and Driest Quarter Precipitation factors with mean AUC value of 0.86. Both GCMs showed that the whole study site is highly suitable and will remain suitable climatically, according to the prediction for 2055, for Ae. albopictus expansion. PMID:29576954

A comparative modeling study on non-climatic and climatic risk assessment on Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus).

PubMed

Shabani, Farzin; Shafapour Tehrany, Mahyat; Solhjouy-Fard, Samaneh; Kumar, Lalit

2018-01-01

Aedes albopictus , the Asian Tiger Mosquito, vector of Chikungunya, Dengue Fever and Zika viruses, has proven its hardy adaptability in expansion from its natural Asian, forest edge, tree hole habitat on the back of international trade transportation, re-establishing in temperate urban surrounds, in a range of water receptacles and semi-enclosures of organic matter. Conventional aerial spray mosquito vector controls focus on wetland and stagnant water expanses, proven to miss the protected hollows and crevices favoured by Ae. albopictus. New control or eradication strategies are thus essential, particular in light of potential expansions in the southeastern and eastern USA. Successful regional vector control strategies require risk level analysis. Should strategies prioritize regions with non-climatic or climatic suitability parameters for Ae. albopictus ? Our study used current Ae. albopictus distribution data to develop two independent models: (i) regions with suitable non-climatic factors, and (ii) regions with suitable climate for Ae. albopictus in southeastern USA. Non-climatic model processing used Evidential Belief Function (EBF), together with six geographical conditioning factors (raster data layers), to establish the probability index. Validation of the analysis results was estimated with area under the curve (AUC) using Ae. albopictus presence data. Climatic modeling was based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs), Miroc3.2 and CSIRO-MK30 running the RCP 8.5 scenario in MaxEnt software. EBF non-climatic model results achieved a 0.70 prediction rate and 0.73 success rate, confirming suitability of the study site regions for Ae. albopictus establishment. The climatic model results showed the best-fit model comprised Coldest Quarter Mean Temp, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter and Driest Quarter Precipitation factors with mean AUC value of 0.86. Both GCMs showed that the whole study site is highly suitable and will remain suitable climatically, according to the prediction for 2055, for Ae. albopictus expansion.

An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica.

PubMed

Baca, María; Läderach, Peter; Haggar, Jeremy; Schroth, Götz; Ovalle, Oriana

2014-01-01

The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions.

An Integrated Framework for Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change and Developing Adaptation Strategies for Coffee Growing Families in Mesoamerica

PubMed Central

Baca, María; Läderach, Peter; Haggar, Jeremy; Schroth, Götz; Ovalle, Oriana

2014-01-01

The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions. PMID:24586328

A dynamic viticultural zoning to explore the resilience of terroir concept under climate change.

PubMed

Bonfante, A; Monaco, E; Langella, G; Mercogliano, P; Bucchignani, E; Manna, P; Terribile, F

2018-05-15

Climate change (CC) directly influences agricultural sectors, presenting the need to identify both adaptation and mitigation actions that can make local farming communities and crop production more resilient. In this context, the viticultural sector is one of those most challenged by CC due to the need to combine grape quality, grapevine cultivar adaptation and therefore farmers' future incomes. Thus, understanding how suitability for viticulture is changing under CC is of primary interest in the development of adaptation strategies in traditional wine-growing regions. Considering that climate is an essential part of the terroir system, the expected variability in climate change could have a marked influence on terroir resilience with important effects on local farming communities in viticultural regions. From this perspective, the aim of this paper is to define a new dynamic viticultural zoning procedure that is able to integrate the effects of CC on grape quality responses and evaluate terroir resilience, providing a support tool for stakeholders involved in viticultural planning (winegrowers, winegrower consortiums, policy makers etc.). To achieve these aims, a Hybrid Land Evaluation System, combining qualitative (standard Land Evaluation) and quantitative (simulation model) approaches, was applied within a traditional region devoted to high quality wine production in Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, BN), for a specific grapevine cultivar (Aglianico). The work employed high resolution climate projections that were derived under two different IPCC scenarios, namely RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results obtained indicate that: (i) only 2% of the suitable area of Valle Telesina expresses the concept of terroir resilience orientated towards Aglianico ultra quality grape production; (ii) within 2010-2040, it is expected that 41% of the area suitable for Aglianico cultivation will need irrigation to achieve quality grape production; (iii) by 2100, climate change benefits for the cultivation of Aglianico will decrease, as well as the suitable areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate suitability for European ticks: assessing species distribution models against null models and projection under AR5 climate.

PubMed

Williams, Hefin Wyn; Cross, Dónall Eoin; Crump, Heather Louise; Drost, Cornelis Jan; Thomas, Christopher James

2015-08-28

There is increasing evidence that the geographic distribution of tick species is changing. Whilst correlative Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used to predict areas that are potentially suitable for ticks, models have often been assessed without due consideration for spatial patterns in the data that may inflate the influence of predictor variables on species distributions. This study used null models to rigorously evaluate the role of climate and the potential for climate change to affect future climate suitability for eight European tick species, including several important disease vectors. We undertook a comparative assessment of the performance of Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance SDMs based on observed data against those of null models based on null species distributions or null climate data. This enabled the identification of species whose distributions demonstrate a significant association with climate variables. Latest generation (AR5) climate projections were subsequently used to project future climate suitability under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Seven out of eight tick species exhibited strong climatic signals within their observed distributions. Future projections intimate varying degrees of northward shift in climate suitability for these tick species, with the greatest shifts forecasted under the most extreme RCPs. Despite the high performance measure obtained for the observed model of Hyalomma lusitanicum, it did not perform significantly better than null models; this may result from the effects of non-climatic factors on its distribution. By comparing observed SDMs with null models, our results allow confidence that we have identified climate signals in tick distributions that are not simply a consequence of spatial patterns in the data. Observed climate-driven SDMs for seven out of eight species performed significantly better than null models, demonstrating the vulnerability of these tick species to the effects of climate change in the future.

Climate Change Could Increase the Geographic Extent of Hendra Virus Spillover Risk.

PubMed

Martin, Gerardo; Yanez-Arenas, Carlos; Chen, Carla; Plowright, Raina K; Webb, Rebecca J; Skerratt, Lee F

2018-03-19

Disease risk mapping is important for predicting and mitigating impacts of bat-borne viruses, including Hendra virus (Paramyxoviridae:Henipavirus), that can spillover to domestic animals and thence to humans. We produced two models to estimate areas at potential risk of HeV spillover explained by the climatic suitability for its flying fox reservoir hosts, Pteropus alecto and P. conspicillatus. We included additional climatic variables that might affect spillover risk through other biological processes (such as bat or horse behaviour, plant phenology and bat foraging habitat). Models were fit with a Poisson point process model and a log-Gaussian Cox process. In response to climate change, risk expanded southwards due to an expansion of P. alecto suitable habitat, which increased the number of horses at risk by 175-260% (110,000-165,000). In the northern limits of the current distribution, spillover risk was highly uncertain because of model extrapolation to novel climatic conditions. The extent of areas at risk of spillover from P. conspicillatus was predicted shrink. Due to a likely expansion of P. alecto into these areas, it could replace P. conspicillatus as the main HeV reservoir. We recommend: (1) HeV monitoring in bats, (2) enhancing HeV prevention in horses in areas predicted to be at risk, (3) investigate and develop mitigation strategies for areas that could experience reservoir host replacements.

The Distributional Ecology of the Maned Sloth: Environmental Influences on Its Distribution and Gaps in Knowledge

PubMed Central

Coutinho, Bruno Rocha; Zanon, Mariana Santos; Mendes, Sérgio Lucena

2014-01-01

The maned sloth Bradypus torquatus (Pilosa, Bradypodidae) is endemic to a small area in the Atlantic Forest of coastal Brazil. It has been listed as a threatened species because of its restricted geographic range, habitat loss and fragmentation, and declining populations. The major objectives of this study were to estimate its potential geographic distribution, the climatic conditions across its distributional range, and to identify suitable areas and potential species strongholds. We developed a model of habitat suitability for the maned sloth using two methods, Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance, based on 42 occurrence points. We evaluated environmental variable importance and the predictive ability of the generated distribution models. Our results suggest that the species distribution could be strongly influenced by environmental factors, mainly temperature seasonality. The modeled distribution of the maned sloth included known areas of occurrence in the Atlantic Forest (Sergipe, Bahia, Espírito Santo, and Rio de Janeiro), but did not match the observed distributional gaps in northern Rio de Janeiro, northern Espírito Santo or southern Bahia. Rather, the model showed that these areas are climatically suitable for the maned sloth, and thus suggests that factors other than climate might be responsible for the absence of species. Suitable areas for maned sloth were located mainly in the mountainous region of central Rio de Janeiro throughout Espírito Santo and to the coastal region of southern Bahia. We indicate 17 stronghold areas and recommended survey areas for the maned sloth. In addition, we highlight specific areas for conservation, including the current network protected areas. Our results can be applied for novel surveys and discovery of unknown populations, and help the selection of priority areas for management and conservation planning, especially of rare and relatively cryptic species directed associated with forested habitats. PMID:25338139

Hopes and challenges for giant panda conservation under climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

PubMed

Gong, Minghao; Guan, Tianpei; Hou, Meng; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Tianyuan

2017-01-01

One way that climate change will impact animal distributions is by altering habitat suitability and habitat fragmentation. Understanding the impacts of climate change on currently threatened species is of immediate importance because complex conservation planning will be required. Here, we mapped changes to the distribution, suitability, and fragmentation of giant panda habitat under climate change and quantified the direction and elevation of habitat shift and fragmentation patterns. These data were used to develop a series of new conservation strategies for the giant panda. Qinling Mountains, Shaanxi, China. Data from the most recent giant panda census, habitat factors, anthropogenic disturbance, climate variables, and climate predictions for the year 2050 (averaged across four general circulation models) were used to project giant panda habitat in Maxent. Differences in habitat patches were compared between now and 2050. While climate change will cause a 9.1% increase in suitable habitat and 9% reduction in subsuitable habitat by 2050, no significant net variation in the proportion of suitable and subsuitable habitat was found. However, a distinct climate change-induced habitat shift of 11 km eastward by 2050 is predicted firstly. Climate change will reduce the fragmentation of suitable habitat at high elevations and exacerbate the fragmentation of subsuitable habitat below 1,900 m above sea level. Reduced fragmentation at higher elevations and worsening fragmentation at lower elevations have the potential to cause overcrowding of giant pandas at higher altitudes, further exacerbating habitat shortage in the central Qinling Mountains. The habitat shift to the east due to climate change may provide new areas for giant pandas but poses severe challenges for future conservation.

Effects of global changes on the climatic niche of the tick Ixodes ricinus inferred by species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Porretta, Daniele; Mastrantonio, Valentina; Amendolia, Sara; Gaiarsa, Stefano; Epis, Sara; Genchi, Claudio; Bandi, Claudio; Otranto, Domenico; Urbanelli, Sandra

2013-09-19

Global climate change can seriously impact on the epidemiological dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In this study we investigated how future climatic changes could affect the climatic niche of Ixodes ricinus (Acari, Ixodida), among the most important vectors of pathogens of medical and veterinary concern in Europe. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to reconstruct the climatic niche of I. ricinus, and to project it into the future conditions for 2050 and 2080, under two scenarios: a continuous human demographic growth and a severe increase of gas emissions (scenario A2), and a scenario that proposes lower human demographic growth than A2, and a more sustainable gas emissions (scenario B2). Models were reconstructed using the algorithm of "maximum entropy", as implemented in the software Maxent 3.3.3e; 4,544 occurrence points and 15 bioclimatic variables were used. In both scenarios an increase of climatic niche of about two times greater than the current area was predicted as well as a higher climatic suitability under the scenario B2 than A2. Such an increase occurred both in a latitudinal and longitudinal way, including northern Eurasian regions (e.g. Sweden and Russia), that were previously unsuitable for the species. Our models are congruent with the predictions of range expansion already observed in I. ricinus at a regional scale and provide a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the future climatically suitable areas for I. ricinus at a continental scale. Although the use of SDM at a higher resolution should be integrated by a more refined analysis of further abiotic and biotic data, the results presented here suggest that under future climatic scenarios most of the current distribution area of I. ricinus could remain suitable and significantly increase at a continental geographic scale. Therefore disease outbreaks of pathogens transmitted by this tick species could emerge in previous non-endemic geographic areas. Further studies will implement and refine present data toward a better understanding of the risk represented by I. ricinus to human health.

Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change.

PubMed

Queirós, Ana M; Huebert, Klaus B; Keyl, Friedemann; Fernandes, Jose A; Stolte, Willem; Maar, Marie; Kay, Susan; Jones, Miranda C; Hamon, Katell G; Hendriksen, Gerrit; Vermard, Youen; Marchal, Paul; Teal, Lorna R; Somerfield, Paul J; Austen, Melanie C; Barange, Manuel; Sell, Anne F; Allen, Icarus; Peck, Myron A

2016-12-01

The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta-analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co-mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem-level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long-term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate-ready and ecosystem-level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon.

PubMed

Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Neves, Olívia Viana; De Marco, Paulo; Loyola, Rafael

2017-01-01

Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale-patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change-are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution. We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors. The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses. From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia for migrating species.

Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon

PubMed Central

Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Neves, Olívia Viana; De Marco, Paulo

2017-01-01

Background Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale—patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change—are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution. Methods We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors. Results The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses. Conclusions From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia for migrating species. PMID:29023503

A framework for adapting urban forests to climate change

Treesearch

Leslie Brandt; Abigail Derby Lewis; Robert Fahey; Lydia Scott; Lindsay Darling; Chris Swanston

2016-01-01

Planting urban trees and expanding urban forest canopy cover are often considered key strategies for reducing climate change impacts in urban areas. However, urban trees and forests can also be vulnerable to climate change through shifts in tree habitat suitability, changes in pests and diseases, and changes in extreme weather events. We developed a three-step...

Implementing Cargo Movement into Climate Based Risk Assessment of Vector-Borne Diseases

PubMed Central

Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Tjaden, Nils Benjamin; van den Bos, Sanne; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

2014-01-01

During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) has rapidly spread around the globe. Global shipment of goods contributes to its permanent introduction. Invaded regions are facing novel and serious public health concerns, especially regarding the transmission of formerly non-endemic arboviruses such as dengue and chikungunya. The further development and potential spread to other regions depends largely on their climatic suitability. Here, we have developed a tool for identifying and prioritizing European areas at risk for the establishment of Aedes albopictus by taking into account, for the first time, the freight imports from this mosquito’s endemic countries and the climate suitability at harbors and their surrounding regions. In a second step we consider the further transport of containers by train and inland waterways because these types of transport can be well controlled. We identify European regions at risk, where a huge amount of transported goods meet climatically suitable conditions for the disease vector. The current and future suitability of the climate for Aedes albopictus was modeled by a correlative niche model approach and the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM. This risk assessment combines impacts of globalization and global warming to improve effective and proactive interventions in disease vector surveillance and control actions. PMID:24658412

Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

PubMed

Pilliod, David S; Arkle, Robert S; Robertson, Jeanne M; Murphy, Melanie A; Funk, W Chris

2015-09-01

Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

[Potential distribution of Panax ginseng and its predicted responses to climate change.

PubMed

Zhao, Ze Fang; Wei, Hai Yan; Guo, Yan Long; Gu, Wei

2016-11-18

This study utilized Panax ginseng as the research object. Based on BioMod2 platform, with species presence data and 22 climatic variables, the potential geographic distribution of P. ginseng under the current conditions in northeast China was simulated with ten species distribution model. And then with the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) as weights, we build an ensemble model, which integrated the results of 10 models, using the ensemble model, the future distributions of P. ginseng were also projected for the periods 2050s and 2070s under the climate change scenarios of RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that for the entire region of study area, under the present climatic conditions, 10.4% of the areas were identified as suitable habitats, which were mainly located in northeast Changbai Mountains area and the southeastern region of the Xiaoxing'an Mountains. The model simulations indicated that the suitable habitats would have a relatively significant change under the different climate change scenarios, and generally the range of suitable habitats would be a certain degree of decrease. Meanwhile, the goodness-of-fit, predicted ranges, and weights of explanatory variables was various for each model. And according to the goodness-of-fit, Maxent had the highest model performance, and GAM, RF and ANN were followed, while SRE had the lowest prediction accuracy. In this study we established an ensemble model, which could improve the accuracy of the existing species distribution models, and optimization of species distribution prediction results.

Potential influence of wildfire in modulating climate-induced forest redistribution in a central Rocky Mountain landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, John L.; Shinneman, Douglas

2017-01-01

IntroductionClimate change is expected to impose significant tension on the geographic distribution of tree species. Yet, tree species range shifts may be delayed by their long life spans, capacity to withstand long periods of physiological stress, and dispersal limitations. Wildfire could theoretically break this biological inertia by killing forest canopies and facilitating species redistribution under changing climate. We investigated the capacity of wildfire to modulate climate-induced tree redistribution across a montane landscape in the central Rocky Mountains under three climate scenarios (contemporary and two warmer future climates) and three wildfire scenarios (representing historical, suppressed, and future fire regimes).MethodsDistributions of four common tree species were projected over 90 years by pairing a climate niche model with a forest landscape simulation model that simulates species dispersal, establishment, and mortality under alternative disturbance regimes and climate scenarios.ResultsThree species (Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, subalpine fir) declined in abundance over time, due to climate-driven contraction in area suitable for establishment, while one species (ponderosa pine) was unable to exploit climate-driven expansion of area suitable for establishment. Increased fire frequency accelerated declines in area occupied by Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, and subalpine fir, and it maintained local abundance but not range expansion of ponderosa pine.ConclusionsWildfire may play a larger role in eliminating these conifer species along trailing edges of their distributions than facilitating establishment along leading edges, in part due to dispersal limitations and interspecific competition, and future populations may increasingly depend on persistence in locations unfavorable for their establishment.

Climate change effects on the geographic distribution of specialist tree species of the Brazilian tropical dry forests.

PubMed

Rodrigues, P M S; Silva, J O; Eisenlohr, P V; Schaefer, C E G R

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the ecological niche models (ENMs) for three specialist trees (Anadenanthera colubrina, Aspidosperma pyrifolium and Myracrodruon urundeuva) in seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) in Brazil, considering present and future pessimist scenarios (2080) of climate change. These three species exhibit typical deciduousness and are widely distributed by SDTF in South America, being important in studies of the historical and evolutionary processes experienced by this ecosystem. The modeling of the potential geographic distribution of species was done by the method of maximum entropy (Maxent).We verified a general expansion of suitable areas for occurrence of the three species in future (c.a., 18%), although there was reduction of areas with high environmental suitability in Caatinga region. Precipitation of wettest quarter and temperature seasonality were the predictor variables that most contributed to our models. Climatic changes can provide more severe and longer dry season with increasing temperature and tree mortality in tropics. On this scenario, areas currently occupied by rainforest and savannas could become more suitable for occurrence of the SDTF specialist trees, whereas regions occupied by Caatinga could not support the future level of unsustainable (e.g., aridity). Long-term multidisciplinary studies are necessary to make reliable predictions of the plant's adaptation strategies and responses to climate changes in dry forest at community level. Based on the high deforestation rate, endemism and threat, public policies to minimize the effects of climate change on the biodiversity found within SDTFs must be undertaken rapidly.

[Climate suitability for tea growing in Zhejiang Province].

PubMed

Jin, Zhi-Feng; Ye, Jian-Gang; Yang, Zai-Qiang; Sun, Rui; Hu, Bo; Li, Ren-Zhong

2014-04-01

It is important to quantitatively assess the climate suitability of tea and its response to climate change. Based on meteorological indices of tea growth and daily meteorological data from 1971 to 2010 in Zhejiang Province, three climate suitability models for single climate factors, including temperature, precipitation and sunshine, were established at a 10-day scale by using the fuzzy mathematics method, and a comprehensive climate suitability model was established with the geometric average method. The results indicated that the climate suitability was high in the tea growth season in Zhejiang Province, and the three kinds of climate suitability were all higher than 0.6. As for the single factor climate suitability, temperature suitability was the highest and sunshine suitability was the lowest. There were obvious inter-annual variations of tea climate suitability, with a decline trend in the 1970s, less variation in the 1980s, and an obvious incline trend after the 1990s. The change tendency of climate suitability for spring tea was similar with that of annual climate suitability, lower in the 1980s, higher in the 1970s and after the 1990s. However, the variation amplitude of the climate suitability for spring tea was larger. The climate suitability for summer tea and autumn tea showed a decline trend from 1971 to 2010.

Distribution, genetic diversity and potential spatiotemporal scale of alien gene flow in crop wild relatives of rice (Oryza spp.) in Colombia.

PubMed

Thomas, Evert; Tovar, Eduardo; Villafañe, Carolina; Bocanegra, José Leonardo; Moreno, Rodrigo

2017-12-01

Crop wild relatives (CWRs) of rice hold important traits that can contribute to enhancing the ability of cultivated rice (Oryza sativa and O. glaberrima) to produce higher yields, cope with the effects of climate change, and resist attacks of pests and diseases, among others. However, the genetic resources of these species remain dramatically understudied, putting at risk their future availability from in situ and ex situ sources. Here we assess the distribution of genetic diversity of the four rice CWRs known to occur in Colombia (O. glumaepatula, O. alta, O. grandiglumis, and O. latifolia). Furthermore, we estimated the degree of overlap between areas with suitable habitat for cultivated and wild rice, both under current and predicted future climate conditions to assess the potential spatiotemporal scale of potential gene flow from GM rice to its CWRs. Our findings suggest that part of the observed genetic diversity and structure, at least of the most exhaustively sampled species, may be explained by their glacial and post-glacial range dynamics. Furthermore, in assessing the expected impact of climate change and the potential spatiotemporal scale of gene flow between populations of CWRs and GM rice we find significant overlap between present and future suitable areas for cultivated rice and its four CWRs. Climate change is expected to have relatively limited negative effects on the rice CWRs, with three species showing opportunities to expand their distribution ranges in the future. Given (i) the sparse presence of CWR populations in protected areas (ii) the strong suitability overlap between cultivated rice and its four CWRs; and (iii) the complexity of managing and regulating areas to prevent alien gene flow, the first priority should be to establish representative ex situ collections for all CWR species, which currently do not exist. In the absence of studies under field conditions on the scale and extent of gene flow between cultivated rice and its Colombian CWRs, effective in situ conservation might best be achieved through tailor-made management plans and exclusion of GM rice cultivation in areas holding the most genetically diverse CWR populations. This may be combined with assisted migration of populations to suitable areas where rice is unlikely to be cultivated under current and future climate conditions.

Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Karen; Thyrring, Jakob; Muscarella, Robert; Borchsenius, Finn

2017-01-01

Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species ( Ambrosia spp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in 'high allergy risk' (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27-100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe.

Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits

PubMed Central

Polce, Chiara; Garratt, Michael P; Termansen, Mette; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Challinor, Andrew J; Lappage, Martin G; Boatman, Nigel D; Crowe, Andrew; Endalew, Ayenew Melese; Potts, Simon G; Somerwill, Kate E; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C

2014-01-01

Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present, there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, which are predicted to provide suboptimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance, choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios. PMID:24638986

What parts of the US mainland are climatically suitable for invasive alien pythons spreading from Everglades National Park?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodda, G.H.; Jarnevich, C.S.; Reed, R.N.

2009-01-01

The Burmese Python (Python molurus bivittatus) is now well established in southern Florida and spreading northward. The factors likely to limit this spread are unknown, but presumably include climate or are correlated with climate. We compiled monthly rainfall and temperature statistics from 149 stations located near the edge of the python's native range in Asia (Pakistan east to China and south to Indonesia). The southern and eastern native range limits extend to saltwater, leaving unresolved the species' climatic tolerances in those areas. The northern and western limits are associated with cold and aridity respectively. We plotted mean monthly rainfall against mean monthly temperature for the 149 native range weather stations to identify the climate conditions inhabited by pythons in their native range, and mapped areas of the coterminous United States with the same climate today and projected for the year 2100. We accounted for both dry-season aestivation and winter hibernation (under two scenarios of hibernation duration). The potential distribution was relatively insensitive to choice of scenario for hibernation duration. US areas climatically matched at present ranged up the coasts and across the south from Delaware to Oregon, and included most of California, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South and North Carolina. By the year 2100, projected areas of potential suitable climate extend northward beyond the current limit to include parts of the states of Washington, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York. Thus a substantial portion of the mainland US is potentially vulnerable to this ostensibly tropical invader. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Tropical amphibians in shifting thermal landscapes under land-use and climate change.

PubMed

Nowakowski, A Justin; Watling, James I; Whitfield, Steven M; Todd, Brian D; Kurz, David J; Donnelly, Maureen A

2017-02-01

Land-cover and climate change are both expected to alter species distributions and contribute to future biodiversity loss. However, the combined effects of land-cover and climate change on assemblages, especially at the landscape scale, remain understudied. Lowland tropical amphibians may be particularly susceptible to changes in land cover and climate warming because many species have narrow thermal safety margins resulting from air and body temperatures that are close to their critical thermal maxima (CT max ). We examined how changing thermal landscapes may alter the area of thermally suitable habitat (TSH) for tropical amphibians. We measured microclimates in 6 land-cover types and CT max of 16 frog species in lowland northeastern Costa Rica. We used a biophysical model to estimate core body temperatures of frogs exposed to habitat-specific microclimates while accounting for evaporative cooling and behavior. Thermally suitable habitat area was estimated as the portion of the landscape where species CT max exceeded their habitat-specific maximum body temperatures. We projected changes in TSH area 80 years into the future as a function of land-cover change only, climate change only, and combinations of land-cover and climate-change scenarios representing low and moderate rates of change. Projected decreases in TSH area ranged from 16% under low emissions and reduced forest loss to 30% under moderate emissions and business-as-usual land-cover change. Under a moderate emissions scenario (A1B), climate change alone contributed to 1.7- to 4.5-fold greater losses in TSH area than land-cover change only, suggesting that future decreases in TSH from climate change may outpace structural habitat loss. Forest-restricted species had lower mean CT max than species that occurred in altered habitats, indicating that thermal tolerances will likely shape assemblages in changing thermal landscapes. In the face of ongoing land-cover and climate change, it will be critical to consider changing thermal landscapes in strategies to conserve ectotherm species. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

When and What Meteorological Stresses Will Maize Crops Meet in the future in France?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, J.

2015-12-01

Climate change is expected to modify overall climatic conditions and therefore, suitability for cropping. Assessment of when and what meteorological stresses will crops meet in the future is highly useful for planners and land managers who can apply adaptation strategies to improve agricultural potentialities. We propose to evaluate the impacts of climate change on suitability for maize cropping in terms of ecophysiology (e.g., heat stress during grain filling), yield quality (e.g., thermal conditions on protein content) and cultural practices performance (e.g., days available for harvest according to risk of waterlogged soil compaction) in two French areas. The Midi-Pyrénées (southern) and Ile-de-France (northern) regions were chosen as representing the two distinct climates when dividing France into southern and northern parts. The Midi-Pyrénées region is a major irrigated maize producer but could become penalizing in the future because of heat and water stress. By contrast, northern France could become a more suitable area thanks to the expected increasing temperature. To confirm our assumptions, we used the method assessment for crop-climate suitability developed in Caubel et al. (2015) and based on the sub-annual analysis of agroclimatic indicators calculated over phenological periods. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate ARPEGE at the meso-scale SAFRAN (8 km resolution) for the two areas and forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario (similar to RCP 6.0). The evaluation was done for two distinct varieties in terms of precocity. Agroclimatic indicators characterizing water deficit and water excess impacts on crop were calculated for three soils with contrasting soil water reserves and depths. Finally, the evaluation was performed with a unique sowing date (the current one), and with an optimized sowing date according to water and thermal requirements for emergence. Consequences on phenology and therefore meteorological stresses enabled to decide where and when adapting the sowing date will be useful for improving maize potentiality. This work is carried out under the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France).

A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs

PubMed Central

Normand, Signe; Randin, Christophe; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Bay, Christian; Høye, Toke T.; Kjær, Erik D.; Körner, Christian; Lischke, Heike; Maiorano, Luigi; Paulsen, Jens; Pearman, Peter B.; Psomas, Achilleas; Treier, Urs A.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2013-01-01

Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates. PMID:23836785

Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen loads in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda; Vautard, Robert; Liu, Li; Solmon, Fabien; Viovy, Nicolas; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Essl, Franz; Chuine, Isabelle; Colette, Augustin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Schaffhauser, Alice; Storkey, Jonathan; Thibaudon, Michel; Epstein, Michelle M.

2015-08-01

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) is an invasive alien species in Europe producing pollen that causes severe allergic disease in susceptible individuals. Ragweed plants could further invade European land with climate and land-use changes. However, airborne pollen evolution depends not only on plant invasion, but also on pollen production, release and atmospheric dispersion changes. To predict the effect of climate and land-use changes on airborne pollen concentrations, we used two comprehensive modelling frameworks accounting for all these factors under high-end and moderate climate and land-use change scenarios. We estimate that by 2050 airborne ragweed pollen concentrations will be about 4 times higher than they are now, with a range of uncertainty from 2 to 12 largely depending on the seed dispersal rate assumptions. About a third of the airborne pollen increase is due to on-going seed dispersal, irrespective of climate change. The remaining two-thirds are related to climate and land-use changes that will extend ragweed habitat suitability in northern and eastern Europe and increase pollen production in established ragweed areas owing to increasing CO2. Therefore, climate change and ragweed seed dispersal in current and future suitable areas will increase airborne pollen concentrations, which may consequently heighten the incidence and prevalence of ragweed allergy.

A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs.

PubMed

Normand, Signe; Randin, Christophe; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Bay, Christian; Høye, Toke T; Kjær, Erik D; Körner, Christian; Lischke, Heike; Maiorano, Luigi; Paulsen, Jens; Pearman, Peter B; Psomas, Achilleas; Treier, Urs A; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2013-08-19

Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates.

The influence of climatic changes on distribution pattern of six typical Kobresia species in Tibetan Plateau based on MaxEnt model and geographic information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhongjun; Guo, Ke; Jin, Shulan; Pan, Huahua

2018-01-01

The issue that climatic change has great influence on species distribution is currently of great interest in field of biogeography. Six typical Kobresia species are selected from alpine grassland of Tibetan Plateau (TP) as research objects which are the high-quality forage for local husbandry, and their distribution changes are modeled in four periods by using MaxEnt model and GIS technology. The modeling results have shown that the distribution of these six typical Kobresia species in TP was strongly affected by two factors of "the annual precipitation" and "the precipitation in the wettest and driest quarters of the year". The modeling results have also shown that the most suitable habitats of K. pygmeae were located in the area around Qinghai Lake, the Hengduan-Himalayan mountain area, and the hinterland of TP. The most suitable habitats of K. humilis were mainly located in the area around Qinghai Lake and the hinterland of TP during the Last Interglacial period, and gradually merged into a bigger area; K. robusta and K. tibetica were located in the area around Qinghai Lake and the hinterland of TP, but they did not integrate into one area all the time, and K. capillifolia were located in the area around Qinghai Lake and extended to the southwest of the original distributing area, whereas K. macrantha were mainly distributed along the area of the Himalayan mountain chain, which had the smallest distribution area among them, and all these six Kobresia species can be divided into four types of "retreat/expansion" styles according to the changes of suitable habitat areas during the four periods; all these change styles are the result of long-term adaptations of the different species to the local climate changes in regions of TP and show the complexity of relationships between different species and climate. The research results have positive reference value to the protection of species diversity and sustainable development of the local husbandry in TP.

Spatio-temporal dynamic climate model for Neoleucinodes elegantalis using CLIMEX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, Ricardo Siqueira; Kumar, Lalit; Shabani, Farzin; da Silva, Ezio Marques; da Silva Galdino, Tarcisio Visintin; Picanço, Marcelo Coutinho

2017-05-01

Seasonal variations are important components in understanding the ecology of insect population of crops. Ecological studies through modeling may be a useful tool for enhancing knowledge of seasonal patterns of insects on field crops as well as seasonal patterns of favorable climatic conditions for species. Recently CLIMEX, a semi-mechanistic niche model, was upgraded and enhanced to consider spatio-temporal dynamics of climate suitability through time. In this study, attempts were made to determine monthly variations of climate suitability for Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) in five commercial tomato crop localities through the latest version of CLIMEX. We observed that N. elegantalis displays seasonality with increased abundance in tomato crops during summer and autumn, corresponding to the first 6 months of the year in monitored areas in this study. Our model demonstrated a strong accord between the CLIMEX weekly growth index (GIw) and the density of N. elegantalis for this period, thus indicating a greater confidence in our model results. Our model shows a seasonal variability of climatic suitability for N. elegantalis and provides useful information for initiating methods for timely management, such as sampling strategies and control, during periods of high degree of suitability for N. elegantalis. In this study, we ensure that the simulation results are valid through our verification using field data.

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

PubMed Central

Jones, Miranda C.; Dye, Stephen R.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Pinnegar, John K.; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W. L.

2013-01-01

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina). PMID:23349829

Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.

PubMed

Jones, Miranda C; Dye, Stephen R; Fernandes, Jose A; Frölicher, Thomas L; Pinnegar, John K; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W L

2013-01-01

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina).

Schistosoma japonicum transmission risk maps at present and under climate change in mainland China.

PubMed

Zhu, Gengping; Fan, Jingyu; Peterson, A Townsend

2017-10-01

The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project is designed to channel fresh water from the Yangtze River north to more industrialized parts of China. An important question is whether future climate change and dispersal via the SNWD may synergistically favor a northward expansion of species involved in hosting and transmitting schistosomiasis in China, specifically the intermediate host, Oncomelania hupensis. In this study, climate spaces occupied by the four subspecies of O. hupensis (O. h. hupensis, O. h. robertsoni, O. h. guangxiensis and O. h. tangi) were estimated, and niche conservatism tested among each pair of subspecies. Fine-tuned Maxent (fMaxent) and ensemble models were used to anticipate potential distributions of O. hupensis under future climate change scenarios. We were largely unable to reject the null hypothesis that climatic niches are conserved among the four subspecies, so factors other than climate appear to account for the divergence of O. hupensis populations across mainland China. Both model approaches indicated increased suitability and range expansion in O. h. hupensis in the future; an eastward and northward shift in O. h. robertsioni and O. h. guangxiensis, respectively; and relative distributional stability in O. h. gangi. The southern parts of the Central Route of SNWD will coincide with suitable areas for O. h. hupensis in 2050-2060; its suitable areas will also expand northward along the southern parts of the Eastern Route by 2080-2090. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis along the southern Central Route and Eastern Route of the SNWD in a future, warmer China.

Gis-Based Crop Support System For Common Oatand Naked Oat in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Fan; Wang, Zhen; Li, Fengmin; Cao, Huhua; Sun, Guojun

The identification of the suitable areas for common oat (Avena sativa L.) and naked oat (Avena nuda L.) in China using Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) approach based on GIS is presented in the current article. Climate, topography, soil, land use and oat variety databases were created. Relevant criteria,suitability levels and their weights for each factor were defined. Then the criteria maps were obtained and turned into the MCE process, and suitability maps for common oat and naked oat were created. The land use and the suitability maps were crossed to identify the suitable areas for each crop. The results identified 397,720 km2 of suitable areas for common oats of forage purpose distributed in 744 counties in 17 provinces, and 556,232 km2 of suitable areas for naked oats of grain purpose distributed in 779 counties in 19 provinces. This result is in accordance with the distribution of farmingpastoral ecozones located in semi-arid regions of northern China. The mapped areas can help define the working limits and serve as indicative zones for oat in China. The created databases, mapped results, interface of expert system and relevant hardware facilities could construct a complete crop support system for oats.

Combining a Climatic Niche Model of an Invasive Fungus with Its Host Species Distributions to Identify Risks to Natural Assets: Puccinia psidii Sensu Lato in Australia

PubMed Central

Kriticos, Darren J.; Morin, Louise; Leriche, Agathe; Anderson, Robert C.; Caley, Peter

2013-01-01

Puccinia psidii sensu lato (s.l.) is an invasive rust fungus threatening a wide range of plant species in the family Myrtaceae. Originating from Central and South America, it has invaded mainland USA and Hawai'i, parts of Asia and Australia. We used CLIMEX to develop a semi-mechanistic global climatic niche model based on new data on the distribution and biology of P. psidii s.l. The model was validated using independent distribution data from recently invaded areas in Australia, China and Japan. We combined this model with distribution data of its potential Myrtaceae host plant species present in Australia to identify areas and ecosystems most at risk. Myrtaceaeous species richness, threatened Myrtaceae and eucalypt plantations within the climatically suitable envelope for P. psidii s.l in Australia were mapped. Globally the model identifies climatically suitable areas for P. psidii s.l. throughout the wet tropics and sub-tropics where moist conditions with moderate temperatures prevail, and also into some cool regions with a mild Mediterranean climate. In Australia, the map of species richness of Myrtaceae within the P. psidii s.l. climatic envelope shows areas where epidemics are hypothetically more likely to be frequent and severe. These hotspots for epidemics are along the eastern coast of New South Wales, including the Sydney Basin, in the Brisbane and Cairns areas in Queensland, and in the coastal region from the south of Bunbury to Esperance in Western Australia. This new climatic niche model for P. psidii s.l. indicates a higher degree of cold tolerance; and hence a potential range that extends into higher altitudes and latitudes than has been indicated previously. The methods demonstrated here provide some insight into the impacts an invasive species might have within its climatically suited range, and can help inform biosecurity policies regarding the management of its spread and protection of valued threatened assets. PMID:23704988

Climate change, wine, and conservation.

PubMed

Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V; Shaw, M Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A; Hijmans, Robert J

2013-04-23

Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.

Climate change, wine, and conservation

PubMed Central

Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V.; Shaw, M. Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A.; Hijmans, Robert J.

2013-01-01

Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects. PMID:23569231

Species distribution models may misdirect assisted migration: insights from the introduction of Douglas-fir to Europe.

PubMed

Boiffin, Juliette; Badeau, Vincent; Bréda, Nathalie

2017-03-01

Species distribution models (SDMs), which statistically relate species occurrence to climatic variables, are widely used to identify areas suitable for species growth under future climates and to plan for assisted migration. When SDMs are projected across times or spaces, it is assumed that species climatic requirements remain constant. However, empirical evidence supporting this assumption is rare, and SDM predictions could be biased. Historical human-aided movements of tree species can shed light on the reliability of SDM predictions in planning for assisted migration. We used Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), a North American conifer introduced into Europe during the mid-19th century, as a case-study to test niche conservatism. We combined transcontinental data sets of Douglas-fir occurrence and climatic predictors to compare the realized niches between native and introduced ranges. We calibrated a SDM in the native range and compared areas predicted to be climatically suitable with observed presences. The realized niches in the native and introduced ranges showed very limited overlap. The SDM calibrated in North America had very high predictive power in the native range, but failed to predict climatic suitability in Europe where Douglas-fir grows in climates that have no analogue in the native range. We review the ecological mechanisms and silvicultural practices that can trigger such shifts in realized niches. Retrospective analysis of tree species introduction revealed that the assumption of niche conservatism is erroneous. As a result, distributions predicted by SDM are importantly biased. There is a high risk that assisted migration programs may be misdirected and target inadequate species or introduction zones. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health

PubMed Central

Muscarella, Robert; Borchsenius, Finn

2017-01-01

Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species (Ambrosia spp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in ‘high allergy risk’ (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27–100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe. PMID:28321366

Extinction and climate change.

PubMed

Thomas, Chris D; Williamson, Mark

2012-02-22

Arising from F. He & S. P. Hubbell 473, 368-371 (2011). Statistical relationships between habitat area and the number of species observed (species-area relationships, SARs) are sometimes used to assess extinction risks following habitat destruction or loss of climatic suitability. He and Hubbell argue that the numbers of species confined to-rather than observed in-different areas (endemics-area relationships, EARs) should be used instead of SARs, and that SAR-based extinction estimates in the literature are too high. We suggest that He and Hubbell's SAR estimates are biased, that the empirical data they use are not appropriate to calculate extinction risks, and that their statements about extinction risks from climate change do not take into account non-SAR-based estimates or recent observations. Species have already responded to climate change in a manner consistent with high future extinction risks.

Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike

PubMed Central

Martínez Meyer, Enrique; Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro R.

2016-01-01

Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species. PMID:27732622

Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike.

PubMed

Estrada-Contreras, Israel; Equihua, Miguel; Laborde, Javier; Martínez Meyer, Enrique; Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro R

2016-01-01

Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species.

Modelling climate change impact on the spatial distribution of fresh water snails hosting trematodes in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Pedersen, Ulrik B; Stendel, Martin; Midzi, Nicholas; Mduluza, Takafira; Soko, White; Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie; Vennervald, Birgitte J; Mukaratirwa, Samson; Kristensen, Thomas K

2014-12-12

Freshwater snails are intermediate hosts for a number of trematodes of which some are of medical and veterinary importance. The trematodes rely on specific species of snails to complete their life cycle; hence the ecology of the snails is a key element in transmission of the parasites. More than 200 million people are infected with schistosomes of which 95% live in sub-Saharan Africa and many more are living in areas where transmission is on-going. Human infection with the Fasciola parasite, usually considered more of veterinary concern, has recently been recognised as a human health problem. Many countries have implemented health programmes to reduce morbidity and prevalence of schistosomiasis, and control programmes to mitigate food-borne fascioliasis. As these programmes are resource demanding, baseline information on disease prevalence and distribution becomes of great importance. Such information can be made available and put into practice through maps depicting spatial distribution of the intermediate snail hosts. A biology driven model for the freshwater snails Bulinus globosus, Biomphalaria pfeifferi and Lymnaea natalensis was used to make predictions of snail habitat suitability by including potential underlying environmental and climatic drivers. The snail observation data originated from a nationwide survey in Zimbabwe and the prediction model was parameterised with a high resolution Regional Climate Model. Georeferenced prevalence data on urinary and intestinal schistosomiasis and fascioliasis was used to calibrate the snail habitat suitability predictions to produce binary maps of snail presence and absence. Predicted snail habitat suitability across Zimbabwe, as well as the spatial distribution of snails, is reported for three time slices representative for present (1980-1999) and future climate (2046-2065 and 2080-2099). It is shown from the current study that snail habitat suitability is highly variable in Zimbabwe, with distinct high- and low- suitability areas and that temperature may be the main driving factor. It is concluded that future climate change in Zimbabwe may cause a reduced spatial distribution of suitable habitat of host snails with a probable exception of Bi. pfeifferi, the intermediate host for intestinal schistosomiasis that may increase around 2055 before declining towards 2100.

Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pilliod, David S.; Arkle, Robert S.; Robertson, Jeanne M; Murphy, Melanie; Funk, W. Chris

2015-01-01

Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900–1930), recent (1981–2010), and future (2071–2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May – September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50–80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

Malaria ecology and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCord, G. C.

2016-05-01

Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

Topographic, latitudinal and climatic distribution of Pinus coulteri: geographic range limits are not at the edge of the climate envelope

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chardon, Nathalie I.; Cornwell, William K.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Ackerly, David D.

2015-01-01

With changing climate, many species are projected to move poleward or to higher elevations to track suitable climates. The prediction that species will move poleward assumes that geographically marginal populations are at the edge of the species' climatic range. We studied Pinus coulteri from the center to the northern (poleward) edge of its range, and examined three scenarios regarding the relationship between the geographic and climatic margins of a species' range. We used herbarium and iNaturalist.org records to identify P. coulteri sites, generated a species distribution model based on temperature, precipitation, climatic water deficit, and actual evapotranspiration, and projected suitability under future climate scenarios. In fourteen populations from the central to northern portions of the range, we conducted field studies and recorded elevation, slope and aspect (to estimate solar insolation) to examine relationships between local and regional distributions. We found that northern populations of P. coulteri do not occupy the cold or wet edge of the species' climatic range; mid-latitude, high elevation populations occupy the cold margin. Aspect and insolation of P. coulteri populations changed significantly across latitudes and elevations. Unexpectedly, northern, low-elevation stands occupy north-facing aspects and receive low insolation, while central, high-elevation stands grow on more south-facing aspects that receive higher insolation. Modeled future climate suitability is projected to be highest in the central, high elevation portion of the species range, and in low-lying coastal regions under some scenarios, with declining suitability in northern areas under most future scenarios. For P. coulteri, the lack of high elevation habitat combined with a major dispersal barrier may limit northward movement in response to a warming climate. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of distinguishing geographically vs. climatically marginal populations, and the importance of quantitative analysis of the realized climate space to understand species range limits.

The growth of finfish in global open-ocean aquaculture under climate change.

PubMed

Klinger, Dane H; Levin, Simon A; Watson, James R

2017-10-11

Aquaculture production is projected to expand from land-based operations to the open ocean as demand for seafood grows and competition increases for inputs to land-based aquaculture, such as freshwater and suitable land. In contrast to land-based production, open-ocean aquaculture is constrained by oceanographic factors, such as current speeds and seawater temperature, which are dynamic in time and space, and cannot easily be controlled. As such, the potential for offshore aquaculture to increase seafood production is tied to the physical state of the oceans. We employ a novel spatial model to estimate the potential of open-ocean finfish aquaculture globally, given physical, biological and technological constraints. Finfish growth potential for three common aquaculture species representing different thermal guilds-Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ), gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata ) and cobia ( Rachycentron canadum )-is compared across species and regions and with climate change, based on outputs of a high-resolution global climate model. Globally, there are ample areas that are physically suitable for fish growth and potential expansion of the nascent aquaculture industry. The effects of climate change are heterogeneous across species and regions, but areas with existing aquaculture industries are likely to see increases in growth rates. In areas where climate change results in reduced growth rates, adaptation measures, such as selective breeding, can probably offset potential production losses. © 2017 The Author(s).

Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Cold-Tolerant Evergreen Broadleaved Woody Plants in the Korean Peninsula.

PubMed

Koo, Kyung Ah; Kong, Woo-Seok; Nibbelink, Nathan P; Hopkinson, Charles S; Lee, Joon Ho

2015-01-01

Climate change has caused shifts in species' ranges and extinctions of high-latitude and altitude species. Most cold-tolerant evergreen broadleaved woody plants (shortened to cold-evergreens below) are rare species occurring in a few sites in the alpine and subalpine zones in the Korean Peninsula. The aim of this research is to 1) identify climate factors controlling the range of cold-evergreens in the Korean Peninsula; and 2) predict the climate change effects on the range of cold-evergreens. We used multimodel inference based on combinations of climate variables to develop distribution models of cold-evergreens at a physiognomic-level. Presence/absence data of 12 species at 204 sites and 6 climatic factors, selected from among 23 candidate variables, were used for modeling. Model uncertainty was estimated by mapping a total variance calculated by adding the weighted average of within-model variation to the between-model variation. The range of cold-evergreens and model performance were validated by true skill statistics, the receiver operating characteristic curve and the kappa statistic. Climate change effects on the cold-evergreens were predicted according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Multimodel inference approach excellently projected the spatial distribution of cold-evergreens (AUC = 0.95, kappa = 0.62 and TSS = 0.77). Temperature was a dominant factor in model-average estimates, while precipitation was minor. The climatic suitability increased from the southwest, lowland areas, to the northeast, high mountains. The range of cold-evergreens declined under climate change. Mountain-tops in the south and most of the area in the north remained suitable in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 4.5 projection and 2050 under the RCP 8.5 projection. Only high-elevations in the northeastern Peninsula remained suitable under the RCP 8.5 projection. A northward and upper-elevational range shift indicates change in species composition at the alpine and subalpine ecosystems in the Korean Peninsula.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands

PubMed Central

Upson, Rebecca; Williams, Jennifer J.; Wilkinson, Tim P.; Maclean, Ilya M. D.; McAdam, Jim H.; Moat, Justin F.

2016-01-01

The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020–2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland Islands Government who seek to better conserve their biodiversity and meet commitments to multi-lateral environmental agreements. PMID:27880846

Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Cold-Tolerant Evergreen Broadleaved Woody Plants in the Korean Peninsula

PubMed Central

Koo, Kyung Ah; Kong, Woo-Seok; Nibbelink, Nathan P.; Hopkinson, Charles S.; Lee, Joon Ho

2015-01-01

Climate change has caused shifts in species’ ranges and extinctions of high-latitude and altitude species. Most cold-tolerant evergreen broadleaved woody plants (shortened to cold-evergreens below) are rare species occurring in a few sites in the alpine and subalpine zones in the Korean Peninsula. The aim of this research is to 1) identify climate factors controlling the range of cold-evergreens in the Korean Peninsula; and 2) predict the climate change effects on the range of cold-evergreens. We used multimodel inference based on combinations of climate variables to develop distribution models of cold-evergreens at a physiognomic-level. Presence/absence data of 12 species at 204 sites and 6 climatic factors, selected from among 23 candidate variables, were used for modeling. Model uncertainty was estimated by mapping a total variance calculated by adding the weighted average of within-model variation to the between-model variation. The range of cold-evergreens and model performance were validated by true skill statistics, the receiver operating characteristic curve and the kappa statistic. Climate change effects on the cold-evergreens were predicted according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Multimodel inference approach excellently projected the spatial distribution of cold-evergreens (AUC = 0.95, kappa = 0.62 and TSS = 0.77). Temperature was a dominant factor in model-average estimates, while precipitation was minor. The climatic suitability increased from the southwest, lowland areas, to the northeast, high mountains. The range of cold-evergreens declined under climate change. Mountain-tops in the south and most of the area in the north remained suitable in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 4.5 projection and 2050 under the RCP 8.5 projection. Only high-elevations in the northeastern Peninsula remained suitable under the RCP 8.5 projection. A northward and upper-elevational range shift indicates change in species composition at the alpine and subalpine ecosystems in the Korean Peninsula. PMID:26262755

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands.

PubMed

Upson, Rebecca; Williams, Jennifer J; Wilkinson, Tim P; Clubbe, Colin P; Maclean, Ilya M D; McAdam, Jim H; Moat, Justin F

2016-01-01

The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020-2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland Islands Government who seek to better conserve their biodiversity and meet commitments to multi-lateral environmental agreements.

Climate change, humans, and the extinction of the woolly mammoth.

PubMed

Nogués-Bravo, David; Rodríguez, Jesús; Hortal, Joaquín; Batra, Persaram; Araújo, Miguel B

2008-04-01

Woolly mammoths inhabited Eurasia and North America from late Middle Pleistocene (300 ky BP [300,000 years before present]), surviving through different climatic cycles until they vanished in the Holocene (3.6 ky BP). The debate about why the Late Quaternary extinctions occurred has centred upon environmental and human-induced effects, or a combination of both. However, testing these two hypotheses-climatic and anthropogenic-has been hampered by the difficulty of generating quantitative estimates of the relationship between the contraction of the mammoth's geographical range and each of the two hypotheses. We combined climate envelope models and a population model with explicit treatment of woolly mammoth-human interactions to measure the extent to which a combination of climate changes and increased human pressures might have led to the extinction of the species in Eurasia. Climate conditions for woolly mammoths were measured across different time periods: 126 ky BP, 42 ky BP, 30 ky BP, 21 ky BP, and 6 ky BP. We show that suitable climate conditions for the mammoth reduced drastically between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, and 90% of its geographical range disappeared between 42 ky BP and 6 ky BP, with the remaining suitable areas in the mid-Holocene being mainly restricted to Arctic Siberia, which is where the latest records of woolly mammoths in continental Asia have been found. Results of the population models also show that the collapse of the climatic niche of the mammoth caused a significant drop in their population size, making woolly mammoths more vulnerable to the increasing hunting pressure from human populations. The coincidence of the disappearance of climatically suitable areas for woolly mammoths and the increase in anthropogenic impacts in the Holocene, the coup de grâce, likely set the place and time for the extinction of the woolly mammoth.

Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds.

PubMed

Vale, Mariana M; Souza, Thiago V; Alves, Maria Alice S; Crouzeilles, Renato

2018-01-01

A key strategy in biodiversity conservation is the establishment of protected areas. In the future, however, the redistribution of species in response to ongoing climate change is likely to affect species' representativeness in those areas. Here we quantify the effectiveness of planning protected areas network to represent 151 birds endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot, under current and future climate change conditions for 2050. We combined environmental niche modeling and systematic conservation planning using both a county and a regional level planning strategy. We recognized the conflict between biodiversity conservation and economic development, including socio-economic targets (as opposed to biological only) and using planning units that are meaningful for policy-makers. We estimated an average contraction of 29,500 km 2 in environmentally suitable areas for birds, representing 52% of currently suitable areas. Still, the most cost-effective solution represented almost all target species, requiring only ca. 10% of the Atlantic Forest counties to achieve that representativeness, independent of strategy. More than 50% of these counties were selected both in the current and future planned networks, representing >83% of the species. Our results indicate that: (i) planning protected areas network currently can be useful to represent species under climate change; (ii) the overlapped planning units in the best solution for both current and future conditions can be considered as "no regret" areas; (iii) priority counties are spread throughout the biome, providing specific guidance wherever the possibility of creating protected area arises; and (iv) decisions can occur at different administrative spheres (Federal, State or County) as we found quite similar numerical solutions using either county or regional level strategies.

Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds

PubMed Central

Souza, Thiago V.; Alves, Maria Alice S.; Crouzeilles, Renato

2018-01-01

Background A key strategy in biodiversity conservation is the establishment of protected areas. In the future, however, the redistribution of species in response to ongoing climate change is likely to affect species’ representativeness in those areas. Here we quantify the effectiveness of planning protected areas network to represent 151 birds endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot, under current and future climate change conditions for 2050. Methods We combined environmental niche modeling and systematic conservation planning using both a county and a regional level planning strategy. We recognized the conflict between biodiversity conservation and economic development, including socio-economic targets (as opposed to biological only) and using planning units that are meaningful for policy-makers. Results We estimated an average contraction of 29,500 km2 in environmentally suitable areas for birds, representing 52% of currently suitable areas. Still, the most cost-effective solution represented almost all target species, requiring only ca. 10% of the Atlantic Forest counties to achieve that representativeness, independent of strategy. More than 50% of these counties were selected both in the current and future planned networks, representing >83% of the species. Discussion Our results indicate that: (i) planning protected areas network currently can be useful to represent species under climate change; (ii) the overlapped planning units in the best solution for both current and future conditions can be considered as “no regret” areas; (iii) priority counties are spread throughout the biome, providing specific guidance wherever the possibility of creating protected area arises; and (iv) decisions can occur at different administrative spheres (Federal, State or County) as we found quite similar numerical solutions using either county or regional level strategies. PMID:29844952

Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China

PubMed Central

Tang, Cindy Q.; Dong, Yi-Fei; Herrando-Moraira, Sonia; Matsui, Tetsuya; Ohashi, Haruka; He, Long-Yuan; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Tomita, Mizuki; Li, Xiao-Shuang; Yan, Hai-Zhong; Peng, Ming-Chun; Hu, Jun; Yang, Ruo-Han; Li, Wang-Jun; Yan, Kai; Hou, Xiuli; Zhang, Zhi-Ying; López-Pujol, Jordi

2017-01-01

This study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the mid-high mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5‒1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata. PMID:28272437

Global Climate Change Adaptation Priorities for Biodiversity and Food Security

PubMed Central

Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G.; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.

2013-01-01

International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services. PMID:23991125

Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

PubMed

Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H M; Peterson, A Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

2013-01-01

International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cole, Kenneth L.; Ironside, Kirsten; Eischeid, Jon K.; Garfin, Gregg; Duffy, Phil; Toney, Chris

2011-01-01

The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed ;11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the populations near what had been its northernmost limit. Its ability to spread northward into new suitable habitats after this time may have been inhibited by the somewhat earlier extinction of megafaunal dispersers, especially the Shasta ground sloth. We applied a model of climate suitability for Joshua tree, developed from its 20th-century range and climates, to future climates modeled through a set of six individual general circulation models (GCM) and one suite of 22 models for the late 21st century. All distribution data, observed climate data, and future GCM results were scaled to spatial grids of ;1 km and ;4 km in order to facilitate application within this topographically complex region. All of the models project the future elimination of Joshua tree throughout most of the southern portions of its current range. Although estimates of future monthly precipitation differ between the models, these changes are outweighed by large increases in temperature common to all the models. Only a few populations within the current range are predicted to be sustainable. Several models project significant potential future expansion into new areas beyond the current range, but the species' Historical and current rates of dispersal would seem to prevent natural expansion into these new areas. Several areas are predicted to be potential sites for relocation/ assisted migration. This project demonstrates how information from paleoecology and modern ecology can be integrated in order to understand ongoing processes and future distributions.

Identifying grasslands suitable for cellulosic feedstock crops in the Greater Platte River Basin: dynamic modeling of ecosystem performance with 250 m eMODIS

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Boyte, Stephen P.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Tieszen, Larry L.

2012-01-01

This study dynamically monitors ecosystem performance (EP) to identify grasslands potentially suitable for cellulosic feedstock crops (e.g., switchgrass) within the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB). We computed grassland site potential and EP anomalies using 9-year (2000–2008) time series of 250 m expedited moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data, geophysical and biophysical data, weather and climate data, and EP models. We hypothesize that areas with fairly consistent high grassland productivity (i.e., high grassland site potential) in fair to good range condition (i.e., persistent ecosystem overperformance or normal performance, indicating a lack of severe ecological disturbance) are potentially suitable for cellulosic feedstock crop development. Unproductive (i.e., low grassland site potential) or degraded grasslands (i.e., persistent ecosystem underperformance with poor range condition) are not appropriate for cellulosic feedstock development. Grassland pixels with high or moderate ecosystem site potential and with more than 7 years ecosystem normal performance or overperformance during 2000–2008 are identified as possible regions for future cellulosic feedstock crop development (ca. 68 000 km2 within the GPRB, mostly in the eastern areas). Long-term climate conditions, elevation, soil organic carbon, and yearly seasonal precipitation and temperature are important performance variables to determine the suitable areas in this study. The final map delineating the suitable areas within the GPRB provides a new monitoring and modeling approach that can contribute to decision support tools to help land managers and decision makers make optimal land use decisions regarding cellulosic feedstock crop development and sustainability.

Predicting habitat suitability and geographic distribution of anchovy (Engraulis ringens) due to climate change in the coastal areas off Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Claudio; Andrade, Isabel; Yáñez, Eleuterio; Hormazabal, Samuel; Barbieri, María Ángela; Aranis, Antonio; Böhm, Gabriela

2016-08-01

The effects of climate change on ocean conditions will have impacts on fish stocks, primarily through physiological and behavioural effects, such as changes in growth, reproduction, mortality and distribution. Habitat and distribution predictions for marine fishery species under climate change scenarios are important for understanding the overall impacts of such global changes on the human society and on the ecosystem. In this study, we examine the impacts of climate change on anchovy fisheries off Chile using predicted changes in global models according to the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3) and IPCC high future CO2 emission scenario A2, habitat suitability index (HSI) models and satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) estimates from high-resolution regional models for the simulation period 2015-2065. Predictions of SST from global climate models were regionalised using the Delta statistical downscaling technique. Predictions of chlorophyll-a were developed using historical Chl-a and SST (2003-2013) satellite data and applying a harmonic model. The results show an increase in SST of up to 2.5 °C by 2055 in the north and central-south area for an A2 scenario. The habitat suitability index model was developed using historical (2001-2011) monthly fisheries and environmental data. The catch per unit effort (CPUE) was used as an abundance index in developing the HSI models and was calculated as the total catch (ton) by hold capacity (m3) in a 10‧ × 10‧ fishing grid square of anchovy, integrated over one month of fishing activity. The environmental data included the distance to coast (DC), thermal (SST) and food availability (Chl-a) conditions. The HSI modelling consists of estimating SI curves based on available evidence regarding the optimum range of environmental conditions for anchovy and estimating an integrated HSI using the Arithmetic Mean Model (AMM) method. The results of this work show that the model has produced robust estimates of habitat suitability and geographic distribution off Chile and has been especially effective in capturing the spatial and temporal variability of CPUE. Using IDRISI geographical information system (GIS), these HSI models simulated monthly changes in the habitat suitability (i.e., relative abundance) and distribution of anchovy off Chile forced by changes in the regionalised SST and Chl-a as projected by the NCAR model under the A2 emission scenario. The simulations predicted a moderate negative change of 17% and 13% for the north and central-south areas, respectively, in the habitat suitability (i.e., potential relative abundance) of anchovy by 2055.

Present and Future Projections of Habitat Suitability of the Asian Tiger Mosquito, a Vector of Viral Pathogens, from Global Climate Simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proestos, Y.; Christophides, G.; Erguler, K.; Tanarhte, M.; Waldock, J.; Lelieveld, J.

2014-12-01

Climate change can influence the transmission of vector borne diseases (VBDs) through altering the habitat suitability of insect vectors. Here we present global climate model simulations and evaluate the associated uncertainties in view of the main meteorological factors that may affect the distribution of the Asian Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which can transmit pathogens that cause Chikungunya, Dengue fever, yellow fever and various encephalitides. Using a general circulation model (GCM) at 50 km horizontal resolution to simulate mosquito survival variables including temperature, precipitation and relative humidity, we present both global and regional projections of the habitat suitability up to the middle of the 21st century. The model resolution of 50 km allows evaluation against previous projections for Europe and provides a basis for comparative analyses with other regions. Model uncertainties and performance are addressed in light of the recent CMIP5 ensemble climate model simulations for the RCP8.5 concentration pathway and using meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim/ECMWF) for the recent past. Uncertainty ranges associated with the thresholds of meteorological variables that may affect the distribution of Ae. albopictus are diagnosed using fuzzy-logic methodology, notably to assess the influence of selected meteorological criteria and combinations of criteria that influence mosquito habitat suitability. From the climate projections for 2050, and adopting a habitat suitability index larger than 70%, we estimate that about 2.4 billion individuals in a land area of nearly 20 million square kilometres will potentially be exposed to Ae. albopictus. The synthesis of fuzzy-logic based on mosquito biology and climate change analysis provides new insights into the regional and global spreading of VBDs to support disease control and policy making.

The potential effects of climate change on the native vascular flora of North America. A preliminary climate envelopes analysis: Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morse, L.E.; Kutner, L.S.; Maddox, G.D.

1993-11-01

To assess the potential effects of global warming on the North American flora, the reported geographical distributions of the 15,148 native North American vascular plant species were matched with climate data for 194 geographical areas to estimate the current ``climate envelope`` for each species. Three methods of analysis were used to construct these envelopes, all based on the limits of mean annual temperatures currently experienced by each species within its present range. Published models of future climates predict a possible increase in mean annual temperatures of 3{degree}C (5.4{degree}F) within the next century. Assuming that species might be eliminated from areasmore » outside their present climate envelope, then about 7% to 11% of North America`s native plant species would be entirely out of their envelopes in a +3{degree}C climate. Rare species would be disproportionately affected -- between 10% and 18% of these species would be entirely out of their climate envelopes. However, some rare species may be able to persist at their present sites due to the availability of suitable microhabitats or genetic variation in climate tolerances. Of the more common species, only about 1% to 2% would be vulnerable in a +3{degree}C climate. The local effects of climate change on plant species would vary considerably if species withdraw from the southern or low-elevation portions of their ranges. Species may expand their ranges northwards as new areas become climatically suitable for them, producing significant changes in local floras. Species vary in their ability to make such migrations, depending upon limitations imposed by dispersal ability and/or specialized habitat requirements. An estimate of dispersibility suggests that species with narrow climate envelopes tend to lack characteristics promoting mobility.« less

Schistosoma japonicum transmission risk maps at present and under climate change in mainland China

PubMed Central

Fan, Jingyu; Peterson, A. Townsend

2017-01-01

Background The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project is designed to channel fresh water from the Yangtze River north to more industrialized parts of China. An important question is whether future climate change and dispersal via the SNWD may synergistically favor a northward expansion of species involved in hosting and transmitting schistosomiasis in China, specifically the intermediate host, Oncomelania hupensis. Methodology/ Principal findings In this study, climate spaces occupied by the four subspecies of O. hupensis (O. h. hupensis, O. h. robertsoni, O. h. guangxiensis and O. h. tangi) were estimated, and niche conservatism tested among each pair of subspecies. Fine-tuned Maxent (fMaxent) and ensemble models were used to anticipate potential distributions of O. hupensis under future climate change scenarios. We were largely unable to reject the null hypothesis that climatic niches are conserved among the four subspecies, so factors other than climate appear to account for the divergence of O. hupensis populations across mainland China. Both model approaches indicated increased suitability and range expansion in O. h. hupensis in the future; an eastward and northward shift in O. h. robertsioni and O. h. guangxiensis, respectively; and relative distributional stability in O. h. gangi. Conclusions/Significance The southern parts of the Central Route of SNWD will coincide with suitable areas for O. h. hupensis in 2050–2060; its suitable areas will also expand northward along the southern parts of the Eastern Route by 2080–2090. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis along the southern Central Route and Eastern Route of the SNWD in a future, warmer China. PMID:29040273

Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.

PubMed

Carvalho, Bruno M; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Vale, Mariana M

2015-01-01

Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region.

Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Bruno M.; Ready, Paul D.

2015-01-01

Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector’s climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: “stabilization” and “high increase”. Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region. PMID:26619186

Incorporating abundance information and guiding variable selection for climate-based ensemble forecasting of species' distributional shifts.

PubMed

Tanner, Evan P; Papeş, Monica; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D; Davis, Craig A

2017-01-01

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have increasingly been used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on species' distributions worldwide. Recently, predictions of species abundance have also been obtained with such models, though knowledge about the climatic variables affecting species abundance is often lacking. To address this, we used a well-studied guild (temperate North American quail) and the Maxent modeling algorithm to compare model performance of three variable selection approaches: correlation/variable contribution (CVC), biological (i.e., variables known to affect species abundance), and random. We then applied the best approach to forecast potential distributions, under future climatic conditions, and analyze future potential distributions in light of available abundance data and presence-only occurrence data. To estimate species' distributional shifts we generated ensemble forecasts using four global circulation models, four representative concentration pathways, and two time periods (2050 and 2070). Furthermore, we present distributional shifts where 75%, 90%, and 100% of our ensemble models agreed. The CVC variable selection approach outperformed our biological approach for four of the six species. Model projections indicated species-specific effects of climate change on future distributions of temperate North American quail. The Gambel's quail (Callipepla gambelii) was the only species predicted to gain area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Conversely, the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) was the only species predicted to lose area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Our models projected future loss of areas for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and scaled quail in portions of their distributions which are currently areas of high abundance. Climatic variables that influence local abundance may not always scale up to influence species' distributions. Special attention should be given to selecting variables for ENMs, and tests of model performance should be used to validate the choice of variables.

The effect of climate change on the distribution of a tropical zoanthid (Palythoa caribaeorum) and its ecological implications.

PubMed

Durante, Leonardo M; Cruz, Igor C S; Lotufo, Tito M C

2018-01-01

Palythoa caribaeorum is a zoanthid often dominant in shallow rocky environments along the west coast of the Atlantic Ocean, from the tropics to the subtropics. This species has high environmental tolerance and is a good space competitor in reef environments. Considering current and future scenarios in the global climate regime, this study aimed to model and analyze the distribution of P. caribaeorum , generating maps of potential distribution for the present and the year 2100. The distribution was modeled using maximum entropy (Maxent) based on 327 occurrence sites retrieved from the literature. Calcite concentration, maximum chlorophyll- a concentration, salinity, pH, and temperature range yielded a model with the smallest Akaike information criterion (2649.8), and were used in the present and future distribution model. Data from the HadGEM2-ES climate model were used to generate the projections for the year 2100. The present distribution of P. caribaeorum shows that parts of the Brazilian coast, Caribbean Sea, and Florida are suitable regions for the species, as they are characterized by high salinity and pH and small temperature variation. An expansion of the species' distribution was forecast northward under mild climate scenarios, while a decrease of suitable areas was forecast in the south. In the climate scenario with the most intense changes, P. caribaeorum would lose one-half of its suitable habitats, including the northernmost and southernmost areas of its distribution. The Caribbean Sea and northeastern Brazil, as well as other places under the influence of coastal upwellings, may serve as potential havens for this species.

The effect of climate change on the distribution of a tropical zoanthid (Palythoa caribaeorum) and its ecological implications

PubMed Central

Cruz, Igor C.S.

2018-01-01

Palythoa caribaeorum is a zoanthid often dominant in shallow rocky environments along the west coast of the Atlantic Ocean, from the tropics to the subtropics. This species has high environmental tolerance and is a good space competitor in reef environments. Considering current and future scenarios in the global climate regime, this study aimed to model and analyze the distribution of P. caribaeorum, generating maps of potential distribution for the present and the year 2100. The distribution was modeled using maximum entropy (Maxent) based on 327 occurrence sites retrieved from the literature. Calcite concentration, maximum chlorophyll-a concentration, salinity, pH, and temperature range yielded a model with the smallest Akaike information criterion (2649.8), and were used in the present and future distribution model. Data from the HadGEM2-ES climate model were used to generate the projections for the year 2100. The present distribution of P. caribaeorum shows that parts of the Brazilian coast, Caribbean Sea, and Florida are suitable regions for the species, as they are characterized by high salinity and pH and small temperature variation. An expansion of the species’ distribution was forecast northward under mild climate scenarios, while a decrease of suitable areas was forecast in the south. In the climate scenario with the most intense changes, P. caribaeorum would lose one-half of its suitable habitats, including the northernmost and southernmost areas of its distribution. The Caribbean Sea and northeastern Brazil, as well as other places under the influence of coastal upwellings, may serve as potential havens for this species. PMID:29785350

Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Orozco, Carlos E.; Pollock, Laura J.; Thornhill, Andrew H.; Mishler, Brent D.; Knerr, Nunzio; Laffan, Shawn W.; Miller, Joseph T.; Rosauer, Dan F.; Faith, Daniel P.; Nipperess, David A.; Kujala, Heini; Linke, Simon; Butt, Nathalie; Külheim, Carsten; Crisp, Michael D.; Gruber, Bernd

2016-12-01

Predicting the consequences of climate change for biodiversity is critical to conservation efforts. Extensive range losses have been predicted for thousands of individual species, but less is known about how climate change might impact whole clades and landscape-scale patterns of biodiversity. Here, we show that climate change scenarios imply significant changes in phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism at a continental scale in Australia using the hyper-diverse clade of eucalypts. We predict that within the next 60 years the vast majority of species distributions (91%) across Australia will shrink in size (on average by 51%) and shift south on the basis of projected suitable climatic space. Geographic areas currently with high phylogenetic diversity and endemism are predicted to change substantially in future climate scenarios. Approximately 90% of the current areas with concentrations of palaeo-endemism (that is, places with old evolutionary diversity) are predicted to disappear or shift their location. These findings show that climate change threatens whole clades of the phylogenetic tree, and that the outlined approach can be used to forecast areas of biodiversity losses and continental-scale impacts of climate change.

Present and Potential Future Distribution of Common Vampire Bats in the Americas and the Associated Risk to Cattle

PubMed Central

Lee, Dana N.; Papeş, Monica; Van Den Bussche, Ronald A.

2012-01-01

Success of the cattle industry in Latin America is impeded by the common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus, through decreases in milk production and mass gain and increased risk of secondary infection and rabies. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the current potential distribution of D. rotundus and the future distribution of the species for the years 2030, 2050, and 2080 based on the A2, A1B, and B1 climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We then combined the present day potential distribution with cattle density estimates to identify areas where cattle are at higher risk for the negative impacts due to D. rotundus. We evaluated our risk prediction by plotting 17 documented outbreaks of cattle rabies. Our results indicated highly suitable habitat for D. rotundus occurs throughout most of Mexico and Central America as well as portions of Venezuela, Guyana, the Brazilian highlands, western Ecuador, northern Argentina, and east of the Andes in Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay. With future climate projections suitable habitat for D. rotundus is predicted in these same areas and additional areas in French Guyana, Suriname, Venezuela and Columbia; however D. rotundus are not likely to expand into the U.S. because of inadequate ‘temperature seasonality.’ Areas with large portions of cattle at risk include Mexico, Central America, Paraguay, and Brazil. Twelve of 17 documented cattle rabies outbreaks were represented in regions predicted at risk. Our present day and future predictions can help authorities focus rabies prevention efforts and inform cattle ranchers which areas are at an increased risk of cattle rabies because it has suitable habitat for D. rotundus. PMID:22900023

Present and potential future distribution of common vampire bats in the Americas and the associated risk to cattle.

PubMed

Lee, Dana N; Papeş, Monica; Van den Bussche, Ronald A

2012-01-01

Success of the cattle industry in Latin America is impeded by the common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus, through decreases in milk production and mass gain and increased risk of secondary infection and rabies. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the current potential distribution of D. rotundus and the future distribution of the species for the years 2030, 2050, and 2080 based on the A2, A1B, and B1 climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We then combined the present day potential distribution with cattle density estimates to identify areas where cattle are at higher risk for the negative impacts due to D. rotundus. We evaluated our risk prediction by plotting 17 documented outbreaks of cattle rabies. Our results indicated highly suitable habitat for D. rotundus occurs throughout most of Mexico and Central America as well as portions of Venezuela, Guyana, the Brazilian highlands, western Ecuador, northern Argentina, and east of the Andes in Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay. With future climate projections suitable habitat for D. rotundus is predicted in these same areas and additional areas in French Guyana, Suriname, Venezuela and Columbia; however D. rotundus are not likely to expand into the U.S. because of inadequate 'temperature seasonality.' Areas with large portions of cattle at risk include Mexico, Central America, Paraguay, and Brazil. Twelve of 17 documented cattle rabies outbreaks were represented in regions predicted at risk. Our present day and future predictions can help authorities focus rabies prevention efforts and inform cattle ranchers which areas are at an increased risk of cattle rabies because it has suitable habitat for D. rotundus.

How Far Could the Alien Boatman Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis Spread? Worldwide Estimation of Its Current and Future Potential Distribution

PubMed Central

Guareschi, Simone; Coccia, Cristina; Sánchez-Fernández, David; Carbonell, José Antonio; Velasco, Josefa; Boyero, Luz; Green, Andy J.; Millán, Andrés

2013-01-01

Invasions of alien species are considered among the least reversible human impacts, with diversified effects on aquatic ecosystems. Since prevention is the most cost-effective way to avoid biodiversity loss and ecosystem problems, one challenge in ecological research is to understand the limits of the fundamental niche of the species in order to estimate how far invasive species could spread. Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis (Tvv) is a corixid (Hemiptera) originally distributed in North America, but cited as an alien species in three continents. Its impact on native communities is under study, but it is already the dominant species in several saline wetlands and represents a rare example of an aquatic alien insect. This study aims: i) to estimate areas with suitable environmental conditions for Tvv at a global scale, thus identifying potential new zones of invasion; and ii) to test possible changes in this global potential distribution under a climate change scenario. Potential distributions were estimated by applying a multidimensional envelope procedure based on both climatic data, obtained from observed occurrences, and thermal physiological data. Our results suggest Tvv may expand well beyond its current range and find inhabitable conditions in temperate areas along a wide range of latitudes, with an emphasis on coastal areas of Europe, Northern Africa, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, New Zealand, Myanmar, India, the western boundary between USA and Canada, and areas of the Arabian Peninsula. When considering a future climatic scenario, the suitability area of Tvv showed only limited changes compared with the current potential distribution. These results allow detection of potential contact zones among currently colonized areas and potential areas of invasion. We also identified zones with a high level of suitability that overlap with areas recognized as global hotspots of biodiversity. Finally, we present hypotheses about possible means of spread, focusing on different geographical scales. PMID:23555771

Climate change may threaten habitat suitability of threatened plant species within Chinese nature reserves

PubMed Central

Wan, Jizhong

2016-01-01

Climate change has the potential to alter the distributions of threatened plant species, and may therefore diminish the capacity of nature reserves to protect threatened plant species. Chinese nature reserves contain a rich diversity of plant species that are at risk of becoming more threatened by climate change. Hence, it is urgent to identify the extent to which future climate change may compromise the suitability of threatened plant species habitats within Chinese nature reserves. Here, we modelled the climate suitability of 82 threatened plant species within 168 nature reserves across climate change scenarios. We used Maxent modelling based on species occurrence localities and evaluated climate change impacts using the magnitude of change in climate suitability and the degree of overlap between current and future climatically suitable habitats. There was a significant relationship between overlap with current and future climate suitability of all threatened plant species habitats and the magnitude of changes in climate suitability. Our projections estimate that the climate suitability of more than 60 threatened plant species will decrease and that climate change threatens the habitat suitability of plant species in more than 130 nature reserves under the low, medium, and high greenhouse gas concentration scenarios by both 2050s and 2080s. Furthermore, future climate change may substantially threaten tree plant species through changes in annual mean temperature. These results indicate that climate change may threaten plant species that occur within Chinese nature reserves. Therefore, we suggest that climate change projections should be integrated into the conservation and management of threatened plant species within nature reserves. PMID:27326373

Unveiling the conservation biogeography of a data-deficient endangered bird species under climate change.

PubMed

Hu, Junhua; Liu, Yang

2014-01-01

It remains a challenge to identify the geographical patterns and underlying environmental associations of species with unique ecological niches and distinct behaviors. This in turn hinders our understanding of the ecology as well as effective conservation management of threatened species. The white-eared night heron (Gorsachius magnificus) is a non-migratory nocturnal bird species that has a patchy distribution in the mountainous forests of East Asia. It is currently categorized as "Endangered" on the IUCN Red List, primarily due to its restricted range and fragmented habitat. To improve our knowledge of the biogeography and conservation of this species, we modeled the geographical pattern of its suitable habitat and evaluated the potential impacts of climate change using ecological niche modeling with a maximum entropy approach implemented in Maxent. Our results indicated that the amount of suitable habitat in all of East Asia was about 130 000 km(2), which can be spatially subdivided into several mountain ranges in southern and southwestern China and northern Vietnam. The extent of suitable habitat range may shrink by more than 35% under a predicted changing climate when assuming the most pessimistic condition of dispersal, while some more suitable habitat would be available if the heron could disperse unrestrainedly. The significant future changes in habitat suitability suggested for Gorsachius magnificus urge caution in any downgrading of Red List status that may be considered. Our results also discern potentially suitable areas for future survey efforts on new populations. Overall, this study demonstrates that ecological niche modeling offers an important tool for evaluating the habitat suitability and potential impacts of climate change on an enigmatic and endangered species based on limited presence data.

Capture mechanism in Palaeotropical pitcher plants (Nepenthaceae) is constrained by climate

PubMed Central

Moran, Jonathan A.; Gray, Laura K.; Clarke, Charles; Chin, Lijin

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Nepenthes (Nepenthaceae, approx. 120 species) are carnivorous pitcher plants with a centre of diversity comprising the Philippines, Borneo, Sumatra and Sulawesi. Nepenthes pitchers use three main mechanisms for capturing prey: epicuticular waxes inside the pitcher; a wettable peristome (a collar-shaped structure around the opening); and viscoelastic fluid. Previous studies have provided evidence suggesting that the first mechanism may be more suited to seasonal climates, whereas the latter two might be more suited to perhumid environments. In this study, this idea was tested using climate envelope modelling. Methods A total of 94 species, comprising 1978 populations, were grouped by prey capture mechanism (large peristome, small peristome, waxy, waxless, viscoelastic, non-viscoelastic, ‘wet’ syndrome and ‘dry’ syndrome). Nineteen bioclimatic variables were used to model habitat suitability at approx. 1 km resolution for each group, using Maxent, a presence-only species distribution modelling program. Key Results Prey capture groups putatively associated with perhumid conditions (large peristome, waxless, viscoelastic and ‘wet’ syndrome) had more restricted areas of probable habitat suitability than those associated putatively with less humid conditions (small peristome, waxy, non-viscoelastic and‘dry’ syndrome). Overall, the viscoelastic group showed the most restricted area of modelled suitable habitat. Conclusions The current study is the first to demonstrate that the prey capture mechanism in a carnivorous plant is constrained by climate. Nepenthes species employing peristome-based and viscoelastic fluid-based capture are largely restricted to perhumid regions; in contrast, the wax-based mechanism allows successful capture in both perhumid and more seasonal areas. Possible reasons for the maintenance of peristome-based and viscoelastic fluid-based capture mechanisms in Nepenthes are discussed in relation to the costs and benefits associated with a given prey capture strategy. PMID:23975653

Capture mechanism in Palaeotropical pitcher plants (Nepenthaceae) is constrained by climate.

PubMed

Moran, Jonathan A; Gray, Laura K; Clarke, Charles; Chin, Lijin

2013-11-01

Nepenthes (Nepenthaceae, approx. 120 species) are carnivorous pitcher plants with a centre of diversity comprising the Philippines, Borneo, Sumatra and Sulawesi. Nepenthes pitchers use three main mechanisms for capturing prey: epicuticular waxes inside the pitcher; a wettable peristome (a collar-shaped structure around the opening); and viscoelastic fluid. Previous studies have provided evidence suggesting that the first mechanism may be more suited to seasonal climates, whereas the latter two might be more suited to perhumid environments. In this study, this idea was tested using climate envelope modelling. A total of 94 species, comprising 1978 populations, were grouped by prey capture mechanism (large peristome, small peristome, waxy, waxless, viscoelastic, non-viscoelastic, 'wet' syndrome and 'dry' syndrome). Nineteen bioclimatic variables were used to model habitat suitability at approx. 1 km resolution for each group, using Maxent, a presence-only species distribution modelling program. Prey capture groups putatively associated with perhumid conditions (large peristome, waxless, viscoelastic and 'wet' syndrome) had more restricted areas of probable habitat suitability than those associated putatively with less humid conditions (small peristome, waxy, non-viscoelastic and'dry' syndrome). Overall, the viscoelastic group showed the most restricted area of modelled suitable habitat. The current study is the first to demonstrate that the prey capture mechanism in a carnivorous plant is constrained by climate. Nepenthes species employing peristome-based and viscoelastic fluid-based capture are largely restricted to perhumid regions; in contrast, the wax-based mechanism allows successful capture in both perhumid and more seasonal areas. Possible reasons for the maintenance of peristome-based and viscoelastic fluid-based capture mechanisms in Nepenthes are discussed in relation to the costs and benefits associated with a given prey capture strategy.

Predicting plant invasions under climate change: are species distribution models validated by field trials?

PubMed

Sheppard, Christine S; Burns, Bruce R; Stanley, Margaret C

2014-09-01

Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird-dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced frosts with climate change may provide more suitable habitats and enable the spread of these species. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment of suitable habitat for Phragmites australis (common reed) in the Great Lakes coastal zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlson Mazur, Martha L.; Kowalski, Kurt P.; Galbraith, David

2014-01-01

In the Laurentian Great Lakes, the invasive form of Phragmites australis (common reed) poses a threat to highly productive coastal wetlands and shorelines by forming impenetrable stands that outcompete native plants. Large, dominant stands can derail efforts to restore wetland ecosystems degraded by other stressors. To be proactive, landscape-level management of Phragmites requires information on the current spatial distribution of the species and a characterization of areas suitable for future colonization. Using a recent basin-scale map of this invasive plant’s distribution in the U.S. coastal zone of the Great Lakes, environmental data (e.g., soils, nutrients, disturbance, climate, topography), and climate predictions, we performed analyses of current and predicted suitable coastal habitat using boosted regression trees, a type of species distribution modeling. We also investigated differential influences of environmental variables in the upper lakes (Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron) and lower lakes (Lakes St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario). Basin-wide results showed that the coastal areas most vulnerable to Phragmites expansion were in close proximity to developed lands and had minimal topographic relief, poorly drained soils, and dense road networks. Elevated nutrients and proximity to agriculture also influenced the distribution of Phragmites. Climate predictions indicated an increase in suitable habitat in coastal Lakes Huron and Michigan in particular. The results of this study, combined with a publicly available online decision support tool, will enable resource managers and restoration practitioners to target and prioritize Phragmites control efforts in the Great Lakes coastal zone.

Shifts in the ecological niche of Lutzomyia peruensis under climate change scenarios in Peru.

PubMed

Moo-Llanes, D A; Arque-Chunga, W; Carmona-Castro, O; Yañez-Arenas, C; Yañez-Trujillano, H H; Cheverría-Pacheco, L; Baak-Baak, C M; Cáceres, A G

2017-06-01

The Peruvian Andes presents a climate suitable for many species of sandfly that are known vectors of leishmaniasis or bartonellosis, including Lutzomyia peruensis (Diptera: Psychodidae), among others. In the present study, occurrences data for Lu. peruensis were compiled from several items in the scientific literature from Peru published between 1927 and 2015. Based on these data, ecological niche models were constructed to predict spatial distributions using three algorithms [Support vector machine (SVM), the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)]. In addition, the environmental requirements of Lu. peruensis and three niche characteristics were modelled in the context of future climate change scenarios: (a) potential changes in niche breadth; (b) shifts in the direction and magnitude of niche centroids, and (c) shifts in elevation range. The model identified areas that included environments suitable for Lu. peruensis in most regions of Peru (45.77%) and an average altitude of 3289 m a.s.l. Under climate change scenarios, a decrease in the distribution areas of Lu. peruensis was observed for all representative concentration pathways. However, the centroid of the species' ecological niche showed a northwest direction in all climate change scenarios. The information generated in this study may help health authorities responsible for the supervision of strategies to control leishmaniasis to coordinate, plan and implement appropriate strategies for each area of risk, taking into account the geographic distribution and potential dispersal of Lu. peruensis. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society.

Developing a climate-based risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks in Iran.

PubMed

Halimi, Mansour; Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Delavari, Mahdi; Arbabi, Mohsen

2015-01-01

The strong relationship between climate and fascioliasis outbreaks enables the development of climate-based models to estimate the potential risk of fascioliasis outbreaks. This work aims to develop a climate-based risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks in Iran using Ollerenshaw's fascioliasis risk index incorporating geographical information system (GIS). Using this index, a risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks for the entire country was developed. We determined that the country can be divided into 4 fascioliasis outbreak risk categories. Class 1, in which the Mt value is less than 100, includes more than 0.91 of the country's area. The climate in this class is not conducive to fascioliasis outbreaks in any month. Dryness and low temperature in the wet season (December to April) are the key barriers against fascioliasis outbreaks in this class. The risk map developed based on climatic factors indicated that only 0.03 of the country's area, including Gilan province in the northern region of Iran, is highly suitable to fascioliasis outbreaks during September to January. The Mt value is greater than 500 in this class. Heavy rainfall in the summer and fall, especially in Rasht, Astara and Bandar Anzaly (≥ 1000 mm/year), creates more suitable breeding places for snail intermediate hosts. Copyright © 2015 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate-based species distribution models for Armillaria solidipes in Wyoming: A preliminary assessment

Treesearch

John W. Hanna; James T. Blodgett; Eric W. I. Pitman; Sarah M. Ashiglar; John E. Lundquist; Mee-Sook Kim; Amy L. Ross-Davis; Ned B. Klopfenstein

2014-01-01

As part of an ongoing project to predict Armillaria root disease in the Rocky Mountain zone, this project predicts suitable climate space (potential distribution) for A. solidipes in Wyoming and associated forest areas at risk to disease caused by this pathogen. Two bioclimatic models are being developed. One model is based solely on verified locations of A. solidipes...

Climate change likely to reduce orchid bee abundance even in climatic suitable sites.

PubMed

Faleiro, Frederico Valtuille; Nemésio, André; Loyola, Rafael

2018-06-01

Studies have tested whether model predictions based on species' occurrence can predict the spatial pattern of population abundance. The relationship between predicted environmental suitability and population abundance varies in shape, strength and predictive power. However, little attention has been paid to the congruence in predictions of different models fed with occurrence or abundance data, in particular when comparing metrics of climate change impact. Here, we used the ecological niche modeling fit with presence-absence and abundance data of orchid bees to predict the effect of climate change on species and assembly level distribution patterns. In addition, we assessed whether predictions of presence-absence models can be used as a proxy to abundance patterns. We obtained georeferenced abundance data of orchid bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Euglossina) in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Sampling method consisted in attracting male orchid bees to baits of at least five different aromatic compounds and collecting the individuals with entomological nets or bait traps. We limited abundance data to those obtained by similar standard sampling protocol to avoid bias in abundance estimation. We used boosted regression trees to model ecological niches and project them into six climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathways. We found that models based on species occurrences worked as a proxy for changes in population abundance when the output of the models were continuous; results were very different when outputs were discretized to binary predictions. We found an overall trend of diminishing abundance in the future, but a clear retention of climatically suitable sites too. Furthermore, geographic distance to gained climatic suitable areas can be very short, although it embraces great variation. Changes in species richness and turnover would be concentrated in western and southern Atlantic Forest. Our findings offer support to the ongoing debate of suitability-abundance models and can be used to support spatial conservation prioritization schemes and species triage in Atlantic Forest. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change will seriously impact bird species dwelling above the treeline: A prospective study for the Italian Alps.

PubMed

Ferrarini, Alessandro; Alatalo, Juha M; Gustin, Marco

2017-07-15

High mountain systems are predicted to be especially vulnerable to the impact of climate change, with the climatically-constrained tree limit rapidly shifted upslope. In turn, the impact of upward treeline migration on mountain-dwelling bird species is expected to significantly reduce habitat suitability. We developed the first projection of the expected climate-driven rise of the whole treeline (19,256km) of the Italian Alps. The study area extends over 20,700km 2 , ranging over 550km in longitude and 320km in latitude. We then investigated how much the expected treeline rise will induce a) shrinking and shifting of the elevation range and b) loss in suitable habitat for the flagship species rock ptarmigan, an alpine bird species dwelling above the treeline and, similarly to many other alpine species, highly vulnerable to treeline rise. We also investigated the potential gain in suitable habitat for rock ptarmigan due to the climate-driven upshift in the uppermost thermal limit. At lower altitudes (1500-1600m a.s.l.), the average expected upshift in the current treeline resulted in 195, 274 and 354m over the short (2010-2039), medium (2040-2069) and long term (2070-2099) respectively. Above 2400m a.s.l., it was less than 30m even in the long term. Overall, during the three climate periods the extent of suitable habitat for rock ptarmigan above the current treeline is projected to decrease by 28.12%, 38.43% and 49.11% respectively. In contrast, the expected gain in suitable habitat due to the shift in the uppermost thermal limit will be severely restrained by the limited surface extension in the top portion of the Italian Alps. The presented approach can promote similar studies elsewhere in the globe, providing a regional perspective to the projection of climate change impact on bird species dwelling above the treeline. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future malaria spatial pattern based on the potential global warming impact in South and Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Khormi, Hassan M; Kumar, Lalit

2016-11-21

We used the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-H climate model with the A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 and CLIMEX software for projections to illustrate the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distributions of malaria in China, India, Indochina, Indonesia, and The Philippines based on climate variables such as temperature, moisture, heat, cold and dryness. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records. The areas in which malaria has currently been detected are consistent with those showing high values of the ecoclimatic index in the CLIMEX model. The match between prediction and reality was found to be high. More than 90% of the observed malaria distribution points were associated with the currently known suitable climate conditions. Climate suitability for malaria is projected to decrease in India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, eastern Borneo, and the region bordering Cambodia, Malaysia and the Indonesian islands, while it is expected to increase in southern and south-eastern China and Taiwan. The climatic models for Anopheles mosquitoes presented here should be useful for malaria control, monitoring, and management, particularly considering these future climate scenarios.

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bateman, Brooke L.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Radeloff, Volker C.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Heglund, Patricia J.

2016-01-01

Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species’ suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr−1, about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr−1). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species’ distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing.

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States.

PubMed

Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

2016-03-01

Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species' suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr(-1) , about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr(-1) ). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species' distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

PubMed

Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

2015-09-01

Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Translocation of species, climate change, and the end of trying to recreate past ecological communities.

PubMed

Thomas, Chris D

2011-05-01

Many of the species at greatest risk of extinction from anthropogenic climate change are narrow endemics that face insurmountable dispersal barriers. In this review, I argue that the only viable option to maintain populations of these species in the wild is to translocate them to other locations where the climate is suitable. Risks of extinction to native species in destination areas are small, provided that translocations take place within the same broad geographic region and that the destinations lack local endemics. Biological communities in these areas are in the process of receiving many hundreds of other immigrant species as a result of climate change; ensuring that some of the 'new' inhabitants are climate-endangered species could reduce the net rate of extinction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change

PubMed Central

Pugh, T.A.M.; Müller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

2016-01-01

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand. PMID:27646707

Climate Analogues Suggest Limited Potential for Intensification of Production on Current Croplands Under Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pugh, T. A. M.; Mueller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

2016-01-01

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pugh, T. A. M.; Müller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

2016-09-01

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

PubMed

Hodd, Rory L; Bourke, David; Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

2014-01-01

Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities' long-term survival.

Incorporating exposure to pitch canker disease to support management decisions of Pinus pinaster Ait. in the face of climate change.

PubMed

Serra-Varela, María Jesús; Alía, Ricardo; Pórtoles, Javier; Gonzalo, Julián; Soliño, Mario; Grivet, Delphine; Raposo, Rosa

2017-01-01

Climate change is gravely affecting forest ecosystems, resulting in large distribution shifts as well as in increasing infection diseases and biological invasions. Accordingly, forest management requires an evaluation of exposure to climate change that should integrate both its abiotic and biotic components. Here we address the implications of climate change in an emerging disease by analysing both the host species (Pinus pinaster, Maritime pine) and the pathogen's (Fusarium circinatum, pitch canker) environmental suitability i.e. estimating the host's risk of habitat loss and the disease`s future environmental range. We constrained our study area to the Spanish Iberian Peninsula, where accurate climate and pitch canker occurrence databases were available. While P. pinaster is widely distributed across the study area, the disease has only been detected in its north-central and north-western edges. We fitted species distribution models for the current distribution of the conifer and the disease. Then, these models were projected into nine Global Climate Models and two different climatic scenarios which totalled to 18 different future climate predictions representative of 2050. Based on the level of agreement among them, we created future suitability maps for the pine and for the disease independently, which were then used to assess exposure of current populations of P. pinaster to abiotic and biotic effects of climate change. Almost the entire distribution of P. pinaster in the Spanish Iberian Peninsula will be subjected to abiotic exposure likely to be driven by the predicted increase in drought events in the future. Furthermore, we detected a reduction in exposure to pitch canker that will be concentrated along the north-western edge of the study area. Setting up breeding programs is recommended in highly exposed and productive populations, while silvicultural methods and monitoring should be applied in those less productive, but still exposed, populations.

Projected Range Contractions of European Protected Oceanic Montane Plant Communities: Focus on Climate Change Impacts Is Essential for Their Future Conservation

PubMed Central

Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

2014-01-01

Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities' long-term survival. PMID:24752011

Incorporating exposure to pitch canker disease to support management decisions of Pinus pinaster Ait. in the face of climate change

PubMed Central

Serra-Varela, María Jesús; Alía, Ricardo; Pórtoles, Javier; Gonzalo, Julián; Soliño, Mario; Grivet, Delphine; Raposo, Rosa

2017-01-01

Climate change is gravely affecting forest ecosystems, resulting in large distribution shifts as well as in increasing infection diseases and biological invasions. Accordingly, forest management requires an evaluation of exposure to climate change that should integrate both its abiotic and biotic components. Here we address the implications of climate change in an emerging disease by analysing both the host species (Pinus pinaster, Maritime pine) and the pathogen’s (Fusarium circinatum, pitch canker) environmental suitability i.e. estimating the host’s risk of habitat loss and the disease`s future environmental range. We constrained our study area to the Spanish Iberian Peninsula, where accurate climate and pitch canker occurrence databases were available. While P. pinaster is widely distributed across the study area, the disease has only been detected in its north-central and north-western edges. We fitted species distribution models for the current distribution of the conifer and the disease. Then, these models were projected into nine Global Climate Models and two different climatic scenarios which totalled to 18 different future climate predictions representative of 2050. Based on the level of agreement among them, we created future suitability maps for the pine and for the disease independently, which were then used to assess exposure of current populations of P. pinaster to abiotic and biotic effects of climate change. Almost the entire distribution of P. pinaster in the Spanish Iberian Peninsula will be subjected to abiotic exposure likely to be driven by the predicted increase in drought events in the future. Furthermore, we detected a reduction in exposure to pitch canker that will be concentrated along the north-western edge of the study area. Setting up breeding programs is recommended in highly exposed and productive populations, while silvicultural methods and monitoring should be applied in those less productive, but still exposed, populations. PMID:28192454

Application of Species Distribution Modeling for Avian Influenza surveillance in the United States considering the North America Migratory Flyways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belkhiria, Jaber; Alkhamis, Moh A.; Martínez-López, Beatriz

2016-09-01

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has recently (2014-2015) re-emerged in the United States (US) causing the largest outbreak in US history with 232 outbreaks and an estimated economic impact of $950 million. This study proposes to use suitability maps for Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI) to identify areas at high risk for HPAI outbreaks. LPAI suitability maps were based on wild bird demographics, LPAI surveillance, and poultry density in combination with environmental, climatic, and socio-economic risk factors. Species distribution modeling was used to produce high-resolution (cell size: 500m x 500m) maps for Avian Influenza (AI) suitability in each of the four North American migratory flyways (NAMF). Results reveal that AI suitability is heterogeneously distributed throughout the US with higher suitability in specific zones of the Midwest and coastal areas. The resultant suitability maps adequately predicted most of the HPAI outbreak areas during the 2014-2015 epidemic in the US (i.e. 89% of HPAI outbreaks were located in areas identified as highly suitable for LPAI). Results are potentially useful for poultry producers and stakeholders in designing risk-based surveillance, outreach and intervention strategies to better prevent and control future HPAI outbreaks in the US.

Can Multiple Cropping Help to Avoid the Impacts of Heat Extremes? The Case of Winter Wheat/Soybean Double Cropping in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seifert, C.; Lobell, D. B.

2014-12-01

In adapting U.S. agriculture to the climate of the 21st century, multiple cropping presents a unique opportunity to help offset projected negative trends in agricultural production while moving critical crop yield formation periods outside of the hottest months of the year. Critical constraints on this practice include moisture availability, and, more importantly, growing season length. We review evidence that this last constraint has decreased in the previous quarter century, allowing for more winter wheat/soybean double cropping in previously phenologically constrained areas. We also carry this pattern forward to 2100, showing a 126% to 211% increase in the area phenologically suitable for double cropping under the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios respectively. These results suggest that climate change will relieve phenological constraints on wheat-soy double cropping systems over much of the United States, changing production patterns and crop rotations as areas become suitable for the practice.

Pathogen-Host Associations and Predicted Range Shifts of Human Monkeypox in Response to Climate Change in Central Africa

PubMed Central

Thomassen, Henri A.; Fuller, Trevon; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Shiplacoff, Julia A. G.; Mulembakani, Prime M.; Blumberg, Seth; Johnston, Sara C.; Kisalu, Neville K.; Kinkela, Timothée L.; Fair, Joseph N.; Wolfe, Nathan D.; Shongo, Robert L.; LeBreton, Matthew; Meyer, Hermann; Wright, Linda L.; Muyembe, Jean-Jacques; Buermann, Wolfgang; Okitolonda, Emile; Hensley, Lisa E.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Smith, Thomas B.; Rimoin, Anne W.

2013-01-01

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts. PMID:23935820

Attributing Climate Conditions for Stable Malaria Transmission to Human Activity in sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheldrake, L.; Mitchell, D.; Allen, M. R.

2015-12-01

Temperature and precipitation limit areas of stable malaria transmission, but the effects of climate change on the disease remain controversial. Previously, studies have not separated the influence of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability, despite being an essential step in the attribution of climate change impacts. Ensembles of 2900 simulations of regional climate in sub-Saharan Africa for the year 2013, one representing realistic conditions and the other how climate might have been in the absence of human influence, were used to force a P.falciparium climate suitability model developed by the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project. Strongest signals were detected in areas of unstable transmission, indicating their heightened sensitivity to climatic factors. Evidently, impacts of human-induced climate change were unevenly distributed: the probability of conditions being suitable for stable malaria transmission were substantially reduced (increased) in the Sahel (Greater Horn of Africa (GHOA), particularly in the Ethiopian and Kenyan highlands). The length of the transmission season was correspondingly shortened in the Sahel and extended in the GHOA, by 1 to 2 months, including in Kericho (Kenya), where the role of climate change in driving recent malaria occurrence is hotly contested. Human-induced warming was primarily responsible for positive anomalies in the GHOA, while reduced rainfall caused negative anomalies in the Sahel. The latter was associated with anthropogenic impacts on the West African Monsoon, but uncertainty in the RCM's ability to reproduce precipitation trends in the region weakens confidence in the result. That said, outputs correspond well with broad-scale changes in observed endemicity, implying a potentially important contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the malaria burden during the past century. Results support the health-framing of climate risk and help indicate hotspots of climate vulnerability, providing information to direct control interventions and investment, and allude to climate injustices. Extending methods, such as by using multiple climate and malaria models and investigating trends over longer timescales, would make results more generally applicable and improve their policy relevance.

Predictive modeling and mapping of Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) distribution using maximum entropy.

PubMed

Nazeri, Mona; Jusoff, Kamaruzaman; Madani, Nima; Mahmud, Ahmad Rodzi; Bahman, Abdul Rani; Kumar, Lalit

2012-01-01

One of the available tools for mapping the geographical distribution and potential suitable habitats is species distribution models. These techniques are very helpful for finding poorly known distributions of species in poorly sampled areas, such as the tropics. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is a recently developed modeling method that can be successfully calibrated using a relatively small number of records. In this research, the MaxEnt model was applied to describe the distribution and identify the key factors shaping the potential distribution of the vulnerable Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) in one of the main remaining habitats in Peninsular Malaysia. MaxEnt results showed that even though Malaysian sun bear habitat is tied with tropical evergreen forests, it lives in a marginal threshold of bio-climatic variables. On the other hand, current protected area networks within Peninsular Malaysia do not cover most of the sun bears potential suitable habitats. Assuming that the predicted suitability map covers sun bears actual distribution, future climate change, forest degradation and illegal hunting could potentially severely affect the sun bear's population.

Predictive Modeling and Mapping of Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) Distribution Using Maximum Entropy

PubMed Central

Nazeri, Mona; Jusoff, Kamaruzaman; Madani, Nima; Mahmud, Ahmad Rodzi; Bahman, Abdul Rani; Kumar, Lalit

2012-01-01

One of the available tools for mapping the geographical distribution and potential suitable habitats is species distribution models. These techniques are very helpful for finding poorly known distributions of species in poorly sampled areas, such as the tropics. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is a recently developed modeling method that can be successfully calibrated using a relatively small number of records. In this research, the MaxEnt model was applied to describe the distribution and identify the key factors shaping the potential distribution of the vulnerable Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) in one of the main remaining habitats in Peninsular Malaysia. MaxEnt results showed that even though Malaysian sun bear habitat is tied with tropical evergreen forests, it lives in a marginal threshold of bio-climatic variables. On the other hand, current protected area networks within Peninsular Malaysia do not cover most of the sun bears potential suitable habitats. Assuming that the predicted suitability map covers sun bears actual distribution, future climate change, forest degradation and illegal hunting could potentially severely affect the sun bear’s population. PMID:23110182

Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loehman, Rachel A.; Keane, Robert E.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Wu, Zhiwei

2016-01-01

ContextInteractions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs.ObjectivesWe used the mechanistic ecosystem-fire process model FireBGCv2 to model interactions of wildland fire, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), and white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) under current and future climates, across three diverse study areas.MethodsWe assessed changes in tree basal area as a measure of landscape response over a 300-year simulation period for the Crown of the Continent in north-central Montana, East Fork of the Bitterroot River in western Montana, and Yellowstone Central Plateau in western Wyoming, USA.ResultsInteracting disturbances reduced overall basal area via increased tree mortality of host species. Wildfire decreased basal area more than beetles or rust, and disturbance interactions modeled under future climate significantly altered landscape basal area as compared with no-disturbance and current climate scenarios. Responses varied among landscapes depending on species composition, sensitivity to fire, and pathogen and beetle suitability and susceptibility.ConclusionsUnderstanding disturbance interactions is critical for managing landscapes because forest responses to wildfires, pathogens, and beetle attacks may offset or exacerbate climate influences, with consequences for wildlife, carbon, and biodiversity.

Climate modeling. [for use in understanding earth's radiation budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

The requirements for radiation measurements suitable for the understanding, improvement, and verification of models used in performing climate research are considered. Both zonal energy balance models and three dimensional general circulation models are considered, and certain problems are identified as common to all models. Areas of emphasis include regional energy balance observations, spectral band observations, cloud-radiation interaction, and the radiative properties of the earth's surface.

Climate Modelling Shows Increased Risk to Eucalyptus sideroxylon on the Eastern Coast of Australia Compared to Eucalyptus albens

PubMed Central

Shabani, Farzin; Ahmadi, Mohsen

2017-01-01

Aim: To identify the extent and direction of range shift of Eucalyptus sideroxylon and E. albens in Australia by 2050 through an ensemble forecast of four species distribution models (SDMs). Each was generated using four global climate models (GCMs), under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Location: Australia. Methods: We used four SDMs of (i) generalized linear model, (ii) MaxEnt, (iii) random forest, and (iv) boosted regression tree to construct SDMs for species E. sideroxylon and E. albens under four GCMs including (a) MRI-CGCM3, (b) MIROC5, (c) HadGEM2-AO and (d) CCSM4, under two RCPs of 4.5 and 6.0. Here, the true skill statistic (TSS) index was used to assess the accuracy of each SDM. Results: Results showed that E. albens and E. sideroxylon will lose large areas of their current suitable range by 2050 and E. sideroxylon is projected to gain in eastern and southeastern Australia. Some areas were also projected to remain suitable for each species between now and 2050. Our modelling showed that E. sideroxylon will lose suitable habitat on the western side and will not gain any on the eastern side because this region is one the most heavily populated areas in the country, and the populated areas are moving westward. The predicted decrease in E. sideroxylon’s distribution suggests that land managers should monitor its population closely, and evaluate whether it meets criteria for a protected legal status. Main conclusions: Both Eucalyptus sideroxylon and E. albens will be negatively affected by climate change and it is projected that E. sideroxylon will be at greater risk of losing habitat than E. albens. PMID:29186755

Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditionsTIC CONDITIONS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been simulated by the STICS, CERES and PANORAMIX crop models with the same input climatic data. Results showed that phenological stages tend to be reached earlier in the future. Significant differences were noted between indicators calculated for invariable calendar periods and indicators calculated during phenological phases. Therefore, ecoclimatic indicators are relevant to provide accurate information about crop suitability in the context of climate change. Whereas most of the indicators do not indicate any significant changes in the future, plant mortality due to frost risks from emergence to ear 1 cm tends to decrease and water supply tends to be more limiting in the future. These indicators do not replace models but represent additional tools for understanding and spatializing some results obtained by models. Their use can provide a spatial distribution of crops according to their suitability in present or future climatic conditions and enable us to minimize the risk of crop failure. It would be interesting to consider the response uncertainties according to the uncertainties we have in future climatic predictions by using different greenhouse emission scenarios and downscaling methods.

Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been simulated by the STICS, CERES and PANORAMIX crop models with the same input climatic data. Results showed that phenological stages tend to be reached earlier in the future. Significant differences were noted between indicators calculated for invariable calendar periods and indicators calculated during phenological phases. Therefore, ecoclimatic indicators are relevant to provide accurate information about crop suitability in the context of climate change. Whereas most of the indicators do not indicate any significant changes in the future, plant mortality due to frost risks from emergence to ear 1 cm tends to decrease and water supply tends to be more limiting in the future. These indicators do not replace models but represent additional tools for understanding and spatializing some results obtained by models. Their use can provide a spatial distribution of crops according to their suitability in present or future climatic conditions and enable us to minimize the risk of crop failure. It would be interesting to consider the response uncertainties according to the uncertainties we have in future climatic predictions by using different greenhouse emission scenarios and downscaling methods.

Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe.

PubMed

Fraga, Helder; García de Cortázar Atauri, Iñaki; Malheiro, Aureliano C; Santos, João A

2016-11-01

Viticulture is a key socio-economic sector in Europe. Owing to the strong sensitivity of grapevines to atmospheric factors, climate change may represent an important challenge for this sector. This study analyses viticultural suitability, yield, phenology, and water and nitrogen stress indices in Europe, for present climates (1980-2005) and future (2041-2070) climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The STICS crop model is coupled with climate, soil and terrain databases, also taking into account CO 2 physiological effects, and simulations are validated against observational data sets. A clear agreement between simulated and observed phenology, leaf area index, yield and water and nitrogen stress indices, including the spatial differences throughout Europe, is shown. The projected changes highlight an extension of the climatic suitability for grapevines up to 55°N, which may represent the emergence of new winemaking regions. Despite strong regional heterogeneity, mean phenological timings (budburst, flowering, veraison and harvest) are projected to undergo significant advancements (e.g. budburst/harvest can be >1 month earlier), with implications also in the corresponding phenophase intervals. Enhanced dryness throughout Europe is also projected, with severe water stress over several regions in southern regions (e.g. southern Iberia and Italy), locally reducing yield and leaf area. Increased atmospheric CO 2 partially offsets dryness effects, promoting yield and leaf area index increases in central/northern Europe. Future biomass changes may lead to modifications in nitrogen demands, with higher stress in northern/central Europe and weaker stress in southern Europe. These findings are critical decision support systems for stakeholders from the European winemaking sector. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates

PubMed Central

Garcia, Raquel A; Burgess, Neil D; Cabeza, Mar; Rahbek, Carsten; Araújo, Miguel B

2012-01-01

Africa is predicted to be highly vulnerable to 21st century climatic changes. Assessing the impacts of these changes on Africa's biodiversity is, however, plagued by uncertainties, and markedly different results can be obtained from alternative bioclimatic envelope models or future climate projections. Using an ensemble forecasting framework, we examine projections of future shifts in climatic suitability, and their methodological uncertainties, for over 2500 species of mammals, birds, amphibians and snakes in sub-Saharan Africa. To summarize a priori the variability in the ensemble of 17 general circulation models, we introduce a consensus methodology that combines co-varying models. Thus, we quantify and map the relative contribution to uncertainty of seven bioclimatic envelope models, three multi-model climate projections and three emissions scenarios, and explore the resulting variability in species turnover estimates. We show that bioclimatic envelope models contribute most to variability, particularly in projected novel climatic conditions over Sahelian and southern Saharan Africa. To summarize agreements among projections from the bioclimatic envelope models we compare five consensus methodologies, which generally increase or retain projection accuracy and provide consistent estimates of species turnover. Variability from emissions scenarios increases towards late-century and affects southern regions of high species turnover centred in arid Namibia. Twofold differences in median species turnover across the study area emerge among alternative climate projections and emissions scenarios. Our ensemble of projections underscores the potential bias when using a single algorithm or climate projection for Africa, and provides a cautious first approximation of the potential exposure of sub-Saharan African vertebrates to climatic changes. The future use and further development of bioclimatic envelope modelling will hinge on the interpretation of results in the light of methodological as well as biological uncertainties. Here, we provide a framework to address methodological uncertainties and contextualize results.

Novel Data on the Ecology of Cochranella mache (Anura: Centrolenidae) and the Importance of Protected Areas for This Critically Endangered Glassfrog in the Neotropics

PubMed Central

Ortega-Andrade, H. Mauricio; Rojas-Soto, Octavio; Paucar, Christian

2013-01-01

We studied a population of the endangered glassfrog, Cochranella mache, at Bilsa Biological Station, northwestern Ecuador, from 2008 and 2009. We present information on annual abundance patterns, behavioral ecology, habitat use and a species distribution model performed with MaxEnt. We evaluate the importance of the National System of Protected Areas (SNAP) in Colombia and Ecuador, under scenarios of climate change and habitat loss. We predicted a restricted environmental suitability area from 48,509 Km2 to 65,147 Km2 along western Ecuador and adjacent Colombia; ∼8% of the potential distribution occurs within SNAP. We examined four aspects of C. mache ecology: (1) ecological data suggests a strong correlation between relative abundance and rainfall, with a high probability to observe frogs through rainy months (February–May); (2) habitat use and the species distribution model suggest that this canopy dweller is restricted to small streams and rivulets in primary and old secondary forest in evergreen lowland and piedmont forest of western Ecuador, with predictions of suitability areas in adjacent southern Colombia; (3) the SNAP of Colombia and Ecuador harbor a minimum portion of the predicted model of distribution (<10%); and (4) synergetic effects of habitat loss and climate change reduces in about 95% the suitability areas for this endangered frog along its distributional range in Protected Areas. The resulting model allows the recognition of areas to undertake conservation efforts and plan future field surveys, as well as forecasting regions with high probability of C. mache occurrence in western Ecuador and southern Colombia. Further research is required to assess population tendencies, habitat fragmentation and target survey zones to accelerate the discovery of unknown populations in unexplored areas with high probability of suitability. We recommend that Cochranella mache must be re-categorized as “Critically Endangered” species in national and global status, according with criteria and sub-criteria A4, B1ab(i,ii,iii,iv),E. PMID:24339973

Continental-scale assessment of risk to the Australian odonata from climate change.

PubMed

Bush, Alex A; Nipperess, David A; Duursma, Daisy E; Theischinger, Gunther; Turak, Eren; Hughes, Lesley

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on the composition of freshwater communities, and many species are threatened by the loss of climatically suitable habitat. In this study we identify Australian Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) vulnerable to the effects of climate change on the basis of exposure, sensitivity and pressure to disperse in the future. We used an ensemble of species distribution models to predict the distribution of 270 (85%) species of Australian Odonata, continent-wide at the subcatchment scale, and for both current and future climates using two emissions scenarios each for 2055 and 2085. Exposure was scored according to the departure of temperature, precipitation and hydrology from current conditions. Sensitivity accounted for change in the area and suitability of projected climatic habitat, and pressure to disperse combined measurements of average habitat shifts and the loss experienced with lower dispersal rates. Streams and rivers important to future conservation efforts were identified based on the sensitivity-weighted sum of habitat suitability for the most vulnerable species. The overall extent of suitable habitat declined for 56-69% of the species modelled by 2085 depending on emissions scenario. The proportion of species at risk across all components (exposure, sensitivity, pressure to disperse) varied between 7 and 17% from 2055 to 2085 and a further 3-17% of species were also projected to be at high risk due to declines that did not require range shifts. If dispersal to Tasmania was limited, many south-eastern species are at significantly increased risk. Conservation efforts will need to focus on creating and preserving freshwater refugia as part of a broader conservation strategy that improves connectivity and promotes adaptive range shifts. The significant predicted shifts in suitable habitat could potentially exceed the dispersal capacity of Odonata and highlights the challenge faced by other freshwater species.

Continental-Scale Assessment of Risk to the Australian Odonata from Climate Change

PubMed Central

Bush, Alex A.; Nipperess, David A.; Duursma, Daisy E.; Theischinger, Gunther; Turak, Eren; Hughes, Lesley

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on the composition of freshwater communities, and many species are threatened by the loss of climatically suitable habitat. In this study we identify Australian Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) vulnerable to the effects of climate change on the basis of exposure, sensitivity and pressure to disperse in the future. We used an ensemble of species distribution models to predict the distribution of 270 (85%) species of Australian Odonata, continent-wide at the subcatchment scale, and for both current and future climates using two emissions scenarios each for 2055 and 2085. Exposure was scored according to the departure of temperature, precipitation and hydrology from current conditions. Sensitivity accounted for change in the area and suitability of projected climatic habitat, and pressure to disperse combined measurements of average habitat shifts and the loss experienced with lower dispersal rates. Streams and rivers important to future conservation efforts were identified based on the sensitivity-weighted sum of habitat suitability for the most vulnerable species. The overall extent of suitable habitat declined for 56–69% of the species modelled by 2085 depending on emissions scenario. The proportion of species at risk across all components (exposure, sensitivity, pressure to disperse) varied between 7 and 17% from 2055 to 2085 and a further 3–17% of species were also projected to be at high risk due to declines that did not require range shifts. If dispersal to Tasmania was limited, many south-eastern species are at significantly increased risk. Conservation efforts will need to focus on creating and preserving freshwater refugia as part of a broader conservation strategy that improves connectivity and promotes adaptive range shifts. The significant predicted shifts in suitable habitat could potentially exceed the dispersal capacity of Odonata and highlights the challenge faced by other freshwater species. PMID:24551197

Shifts in the suitable habitat available for brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) under short-term climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Muñoz-Mas, R; Lopez-Nicolas, A; Martínez-Capel, F; Pulido-Velazquez, M

2016-02-15

The impact of climate change on the habitat suitability for large brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) was studied in a segment of the Cabriel River (Iberian Peninsula). The future flow and water temperature patterns were simulated at a daily time step with M5 models' trees (NSE of 0.78 and 0.97 respectively) for two short-term scenarios (2011-2040) under the representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). An ensemble of five strongly regularized machine learning techniques (generalized additive models, multilayer perceptron ensembles, random forests, support vector machines and fuzzy rule base systems) was used to model the microhabitat suitability (depth, velocity and substrate) during summertime and to evaluate several flows simulated with River2D©. The simulated flow rate and water temperature were combined with the microhabitat assessment to infer bivariate habitat duration curves (BHDCs) under historical conditions and climate change scenarios using either the weighted usable area (WUA) or the Boolean-based suitable area (SA). The forecasts for both scenarios jointly predicted a significant reduction in the flow rate and an increase in water temperature (mean rate of change of ca. -25% and +4% respectively). The five techniques converged on the modelled suitability and habitat preferences; large brown trout selected relatively high flow velocity, large depth and coarse substrate. However, the model developed with support vector machines presented a significantly trimmed output range (max.: 0.38), and thus its predictions were banned from the WUA-based analyses. The BHDCs based on the WUA and the SA broadly matched, indicating an increase in the number of days with less suitable habitat available (WUA and SA) and/or with higher water temperature (trout will endure impoverished environmental conditions ca. 82% of the days). Finally, our results suggested the potential extirpation of the species from the study site during short time spans. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A climate change context for the decline of a foundation tree species in south-western Australia: insights from phylogeography and species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Dalmaris, Eleftheria; Ramalho, Cristina E; Poot, Pieter; Veneklaas, Erik J; Byrne, Margaret

2015-11-01

A worldwide increase in tree decline and mortality has been linked to climate change and, where these represent foundation species, this can have important implications for ecosystem functions. This study tests a combined approach of phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modelling to provide a climate change context for an observed decline in crown health and an increase in mortality in Eucalyptus wandoo, an endemic tree of south-western Australia. Phylogeographic analyses were undertaken using restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of chloroplast DNA in 26 populations across the species distribution. Parsimony analysis of haplotype relationships was conducted, a haplotype network was prepared, and haplotype and nucleotide diversity were calculated. Species distribution modelling was undertaken using Maxent models based on extant species occurrences and projected to climate models of the last glacial maximum (LGM). A structured pattern of diversity was identified, with the presence of two groups that followed a climatic gradient from mesic to semi-arid regions. Most populations were represented by a single haplotype, but many haplotypes were shared among populations, with some having widespread distributions. A putative refugial area with high haplotype diversity was identified at the centre of the species distribution. Species distribution modelling showed high climatic suitability at the LGM and high climatic stability in the central region where higher genetic diversity was found, and low suitability elsewhere, consistent with a pattern of range contraction. Combination of phylogeography and paleo-distribution modelling can provide an evolutionary context for climate-driven tree decline, as both can be used to cross-validate evidence for refugia and contraction under harsh climatic conditions. This approach identified a central refugial area in the test species E. wandoo, with more recent expansion into peripheral areas from where it had contracted at the LGM. This signature of contraction from lower rainfall areas is consistent with current observations of decline on the semi-arid margin of the range, and indicates low capacity to tolerate forecast climatic change. Identification of a paleo-historical context for current tree decline enables conservation interventions to focus on maintaining genetic diversity, which provides the evolutionary potential for adaptation to climate change. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

An ecophysiological perspective on likely giant panda habitat responses to climate change.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuke; Mathewson, Paul D; Zhang, Qiongyue; Porter, Warren P; Ran, Jianghong

2018-04-01

Threatened and endangered species are more vulnerable to climate change due to small population and specific geographical distribution. Therefore, identifying and incorporating the biological processes underlying a species' adaptation to its environment are important for determining whether they can persist in situ. Correlative models are widely used to predict species' distribution changes, but generally fail to capture the buffering capacity of organisms. Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) live in topographically complex mountains and are known to avoid heat stress. Although many studies have found that climate change will lead to severe habitat loss and threaten previous conservation efforts, the mechanisms underlying panda's responses to climate change have not been explored. Here, we present a case study in Daxiangling Mountains, one of the six Mountain Systems that giant panda distributes. We used a mechanistic model, Niche Mapper, to explore what are likely panda habitat response to climate change taking physiological, behavioral and ecological responses into account, through which we map panda's climatic suitable activity area (SAA) for the first time. We combined SAA with bamboo forest distribution to yield highly suitable habitat (HSH) and seasonal suitable habitat (SSH), and their temporal dynamics under climate change were predicted. In general, SAA in the hottest month (July) would reduce 11.7%-52.2% by 2070, which is more moderate than predicted bamboo habitat loss (45.6%-86.9%). Limited by the availability of bamboo and forest, panda's suitable habitat loss increases, and only 15.5%-68.8% of current HSH would remain in 2070. Our method of mechanistic modeling can help to distinguish whether habitat loss is caused by thermal environmental deterioration or food loss under climate change. Furthermore, mechanistic models can produce robust predictions by incorporating ecophysiological feedbacks and minimizing extrapolation into novel environments. We suggest that a mechanistic approach should be incorporated into distribution predictions and conservation planning. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Availability and Configuration for an Endemic Coastal Alpine Bird

PubMed Central

Jackson, Michelle M.; Gergel, Sarah E.; Martin, Kathy

2015-01-01

North America’s coastal mountains are particularly vulnerable to climate change, yet harbour a number of endemic species. With little room “at the top” to track shifting climate envelopes, alpine species may be especially negatively affected by climate-induced habitat fragmentation. We ask how climate change will affect the total amount, mean patch size, and number of patches of suitable habitat for Vancouver Island White-tailed Ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura saxatilis; VIWTP), a threatened, endemic alpine bird. Using a Random Forest model and a unique dataset consisting of citizen science observations combined with field surveys, we predict the distribution and configuration of potential suitable summer habitat for VIWTP under baseline and future (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) climates using three general circulation models and two greenhouse gas scenarios. VIWTP summer habitat is predicted to decline by an average of 25%, 44%, and 56% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, under the low greenhouse gas scenario and 27%, 59%, and 74% under the high scenario. Habitat patches are predicted to become fragmented, with a 52–79% reduction in mean patch size. The average elevation of suitable habitat patches is expected to increase, reflecting a loss of patches at lower elevations. Thus ptarmigan are in danger of being “squeezed off the mountain”, as their remaining suitable habitat will be increasingly confined to mountaintops in the center of the island. The extent to which ptarmigan will be able to persist in increasingly fragmented habitat is unclear. Much will depend on their ability to move throughout a more heterogeneous landscape, utilize smaller breeding areas, and survive increasingly variable climate extremes. Our results emphasize the importance of continued monitoring and protection for high elevation specialist species, and suggest that White-tailed Ptarmigan should be considered an indicator species for alpine ecosystems in the face of climate change. PMID:26529306

Potential impacts of climate change on flow regime and fish habitat in mountain rivers of the south-western Balkans.

PubMed

Papadaki, Christina; Soulis, Konstantinos; Muñoz-Mas, Rafael; Martinez-Capel, Francisco; Zogaris, Stamatis; Ntoanidis, Lazaros; Dimitriou, Elias

2016-01-01

The climate change in the Mediterranean area is expected to have significant impacts on the aquatic ecosystems and particular in the mountain rivers and streams that often host important species such as the Salmo farioides, Karaman 1938. These impacts will most possibly affect the habitat availability for various aquatic species resulting to an essential alteration of the water requirements, either for dams or other water abstractions, in order to maintain the essential levels of ecological flow for the rivers. The main scope of this study was to assess potential climate change impacts on the hydrological patterns and typical biota for a south-western Balkan mountain river, the Acheloos. The altered flow regimes under different emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were estimated using a hydrological model and based on regional climate simulations over the study area. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) methodology was then used to assess the potential streamflow alterations in the studied river due to predicted climate change conditions. A fish habitat simulation method integrating univariate habitat suitability curves and hydraulic modeling techniques were used to assess the impacts on the relationships between the aquatic biota and hydrological status utilizing a sentinel species, the West Balkan trout. The most prominent effects of the climate change scenarios depict severe flow reductions that are likely to occur especially during the summer flows, changing the duration and depressing the magnitude of the natural low flow conditions. Weighted Usable Area-flow curves indicated the limitation of suitable habitat for the native trout. Finally, this preliminary application highlighted the potential of science-based hydrological and habitat simulation approaches that are relevant to both biological quality elements (fish) and current EU Water policy to serve as efficient tools for the estimation of possible climate change impacts on the south-western Balkan river ecosystems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing the Role of Climate Change in Species Decline: Is the Eastern Quoll a Victim of a Change in the Weather?

PubMed Central

Fancourt, Bronwyn A.; Bateman, Brooke L.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Nicol, Stewart C.; Hawkins, Clare E.; Jones, Menna E.; Johnson, Christopher N.

2015-01-01

To conserve a declining species we first need to diagnose the causes of decline. This is one of the most challenging tasks faced by conservation practitioners. In this study, we used temporally explicit species distribution models (SDMs) to test whether shifting weather can explain the recent decline of a marsupial carnivore, the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus). We developed an SDM using weather variables matched to occurrence records of the eastern quoll over the last 60 years, and used the model to reconstruct variation through time in the distribution of climatically suitable range for the species. The weather model produced a meaningful prediction of the known distribution of the species. Abundance of quolls, indexed by transect counts, was positively related to the modelled area of suitable habitat between 1990 and 2004. In particular, a sharp decline in abundance from 2001 to 2003 coincided with a sustained period of unsuitable weather over much of the species’ distribution. Since 2004, abundance has not recovered despite a return to suitable weather conditions, and abundance and area of suitable habitat have been uncorrelated. We suggest that fluctuations in weather account for the species’ recent decline, but other unrelated factors have suppressed recovery. PMID:26106887

Shifts of heat availability and stressful temperatures in Russian Federation result in gains and losses of wheat thermal suitability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Paola, Arianna; Caporaso, Luca; Santini, Monia; Di Paola, Francesco; Vasenev, Ivan; Valentini, Riccardo

2017-04-01

Climate changes are likely to shift the suitability of lands devoted to cropping systems. We explored the past-to-future thermal suitability of Russian Federation for wheat (Triticum aestivum) culture through an ensemble of bias corrected CMIP5-GCMs outputs considering two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Thermal suitability assesses where wheat heat requirement, counted from suggested sowing dates, is satisfied without the occurrence of stressful hot and frost temperatures. Thermal requirement was estimated by means of phenological observations on soft wheat involving different wheat cultivar collected in different regions of Russian Federation, Azerbaidhan, Kazakhstan and Tadzhikistan, whilst stressful temperatures were taken from a literature survey. Results showed projected geographical shift of heat resource toward the north-eastern regions, currently mainly covered by forests and croplands, but also an increase of very hot temperatures in the most productive areas of the southern regions. Gains and losses were then quantified and discussed from both agronomical and climatic perspective.

Climate change may alter breeding ground distributions of eastern migratory monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via range expansion of Asclepias host plants.

PubMed

Lemoine, Nathan P

2015-01-01

Climate change can profoundly alter species' distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months while encountering reduced habitat suitability throughout the northern migration.

Climate Change May Alter Breeding Ground Distributions of Eastern Migratory Monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via Range Expansion of Asclepias Host Plants

PubMed Central

Lemoine, Nathan P.

2015-01-01

Climate change can profoundly alter species’ distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months while encountering reduced habitat suitability throughout the northern migration. PMID:25705876

Invasive potential of cattle fever ticks in the southern United States

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Abstract' Background For >100 years cattle production in the southern United States has been threatened by cattle fever. It is caused by an invasive parasite-vector complex that includes the protozoan hemoparasites Babesia bovis and B. bigemina, which are transmitted among domestic cattle via Rhipicephalus tick vectors of the subgenus Boophilus. In 1906 an eradication effort was started and by 1943 Boophilus ticks had been confined to a narrow tick eradication quarantine area (TEQA) along the Texas-Mexico border. However, a dramatic increase in tick infestations in areas outside the TEQA over the last decade suggests these tick vectors may be poised to re-invade the southern United States. We investigated historical and potential future distributions of climatic habitats of cattle fever ticks to assess the potential for a range expansion. Methods We built robust spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the vector species Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus and R. (B.) annulatus across the southern United States for three time periods: 1906, present day (2012), and 2050. We used analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) to identify persistent tick occurrences and analysis of bias in the climate proximate to these occurrences to identify key environmental parameters associated with the ecology of both species. We then used ecological niche modeling algorithms GARP and Maxent to construct models that related known occurrences of ticks in the TEQA during 2001–2011 with geospatial data layers that summarized important climate parameters at all three time periods. Results We identified persistent tick infestations and specific climate parameters that appear to be drivers of ecological niches of the two tick species. Spatial models projected onto climate data representative of climate in 1906 reproduced historical pre-eradication tick distributions. Present-day predictions, although constrained to areas near the TEQA, extrapolated well onto climate projections for 2050. Conclusions Our models indicate the potential for range expansion of climate suitable for survival of R. microplus and R. annulatus in the southern United States by mid-century, which increases the risk of reintroduction of these ticks and cattle tick fever into major cattle producing areas. PMID:24742062

Constraints to species' elevational range shifts as climate changes.

PubMed

Forero-Medina, German; Joppa, Lucas; Pimm, Stuart L

2011-02-01

Predicting whether the ranges of tropical species will shift to higher elevations in response to climate change requires models that incorporate data on topography and land use. We incorporated temperature gradients and land-cover data from the current ranges of species in a model of range shifts in response to climate change. We tested four possible scenarios of amphibian movement on a tropical mountain: movement upslope through and to land cover suitable for the species; movement upslope to land-cover types that will not sustain survival and reproduction; movement upslope to areas that previously were outside the species' range; and movement upslope to cooler areas within the current range. Areas in the final scenario will become isolated as climate continues to change. In our scenarios more than 30% of the range of 21 of 46 amphibian species in the tropical Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta is likely to become isolated as climate changes. More than 30% of the range of 13 amphibian species would shift to areas that currently are unlikely to sustain survival and reproduction. Combined, over 70% of the current range of seven species would become thermally isolated or shift to areas that currently are unlikely to support survival and reproduction. The constraints on species' movements to higher elevations in response to climate change can increase considerably the number of species threatened by climate change in tropical mountains. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Seed bank and big sagebrush plant community composition in a range margin for big sagebrush

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martyn, Trace E.; Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Burke, Ingrid C.; Laurenroth, William K.

2016-01-01

The potential influence of seed bank composition on range shifts of species due to climate change is unclear. Seed banks can provide a means of both species persistence in an area and local range expansion in the case of increasing habitat suitability, as may occur under future climate change. However, a mismatch between the seed bank and the established plant community may represent an obstacle to persistence and expansion. In big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) plant communities in Montana, USA, we compared the seed bank to the established plant community. There was less than a 20% similarity in the relative abundance of species between the established plant community and the seed bank. This difference was primarily driven by an overrepresentation of native annual forbs and an underrepresentation of big sagebrush in the seed bank compared to the established plant community. Even though we expect an increase in habitat suitability for big sagebrush under future climate conditions at our sites, the current mismatch between the plant community and the seed bank could impede big sagebrush range expansion into increasingly suitable habitat in the future.

[Study on ecological suitability regionalization of Corni Fructus based on Maxent and ArcGIS model].

PubMed

Zhang, Fei; Chen, Sui-Qing; Wang, Li-Li; Zhang, Tao; Zhang, Xiao-Bo; Zhu, Shou-Dong

2017-08-01

Through planting regionalization the scientific basis for planting area of high-quality medicinal materials was predicted. Through interview investigation and field survey, the distribution information of Corni Fructus in China was collected,and 89 sampling point from 14 producing areas were collected. Climate and topography of Corni Fructus were analyzed, the ecological adaptability of study was conducted based on ArcGIS and Maxent. Different suitability grade at potential areas and regionalization map were formulated. There are nine ecological factors affecting the growth of Corni Fructus, for example precipitation in November and March and vegetation type. The results showed that the most suitable habitats are Henan, Shaanxi, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Hubei, Sichuan, Anhui, Hunan and Shandong province. Using the spatial analysis method,the study not only illustrates the most suitable for the surroundings of Corni Fructus,but also provides a scientific reference for wild resource tending, introduction and cultivation, and artificial planting base and directing production layout. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Climate change: potential implications for Ireland's biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnelly, Alison

2018-03-01

A national biodiversity and climate change adaptation plan is being developed for Ireland by the Department of Communications, Climate Action, and Environment. In order to inform such a plan, it was necessary to review and synthesize some of the recent literature pertaining to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in Ireland. Published research on this topic fell within three broad categories: (i) changes in the timing of life-cycle events (phenology) of plants, birds, and insects; (ii) changes in the geographic range of some bird species; and (iii) changes in the suitable climatic zones of key habitats and species. The synthesis revealed evidence of (i) a trend towards earlier spring activity of plants, birds, and insects which may result in a change in ecosystem function; (ii) an increase in the number of bird species; and (iii) both increases and decreases in the suitable climatic area of key habitats and species, all of which are expected to impact Ireland's future biodiversity. This process identified data gaps and limitations in available information both of which could be used to inform a focused research strategy. In addition, it raises awareness of the potential implications of climate change for biodiversity in Ireland and elsewhere and demonstrates the need for biodiversity conservation plans to factor climate change into future designs.

Climate change: potential implications for Ireland's biodiversity.

PubMed

Donnelly, Alison

2018-03-12

A national biodiversity and climate change adaptation plan is being developed for Ireland by the Department of Communications, Climate Action, and Environment. In order to inform such a plan, it was necessary to review and synthesize some of the recent literature pertaining to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in Ireland. Published research on this topic fell within three broad categories: (i) changes in the timing of life-cycle events (phenology) of plants, birds, and insects; (ii) changes in the geographic range of some bird species; and (iii) changes in the suitable climatic zones of key habitats and species. The synthesis revealed evidence of (i) a trend towards earlier spring activity of plants, birds, and insects which may result in a change in ecosystem function; (ii) an increase in the number of bird species; and (iii) both increases and decreases in the suitable climatic area of key habitats and species, all of which are expected to impact Ireland's future biodiversity. This process identified data gaps and limitations in available information both of which could be used to inform a focused research strategy. In addition, it raises awareness of the potential implications of climate change for biodiversity in Ireland and elsewhere and demonstrates the need for biodiversity conservation plans to factor climate change into future designs.

Evaluating meteo marine climatic model inputs for the investigation of coastal hydrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellafiore, D.; Bucchignani, E.; Umgiesser, G.

2010-09-01

One of the major aspects discussed in the recent works on climate change is how to provide information from the global scale to the local one. In fact the influence of sea level rise and changes in the meteorological conditions due to climate change in strategic areas like the coastal zone is at the base of the well known mitigation and risk assessment plans. The investigation of the coastal zone hydrodynamics, from a modeling point of view, has been the field for the connection between hydraulic models and ocean models and, in terms of process studies, finite element models have demonstrated their suitability in the reproduction of complex coastal morphology and in the capability to reproduce different spatial scale hydrodynamic processes. In this work the connection between two different model families, the climate models and the hydrodynamic models usually implemented for process studies, is tested. Together, they can be the most suitable tool for the investigation of climate change on coastal systems. A finite element model, SHYFEM (Shallow water Hydrodynamic Finite Element Model), is implemented on the Adriatic Sea, to investigate the effect of wind forcing datasets produced by different downscaling from global climate models in terms of surge and its coastal effects. The wind datasets are produced by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CIRA), and by EBU-POM model (Belgrade University), both downscaling from ECHAM4. As a first step the downscaled wind datasets, that have different spatial resolutions, has been analyzed for the period 1960-1990 to compare what is their capability to reproduce the measured wind statistics in the coastal zone in front of the Venice Lagoon. The particularity of the Adriatic Sea meteo climate is connected with the influence of the orography in the strengthening of winds like Bora, from North-East. The increase in spatial resolution permits the more resolved wind dataset to better reproduce meteorology and to provide a more realistic forcing for hydrodynamic simulations. After this analysis, effects on water level variations, under different wind forcing, has been analyzed to define what is the local effect on sea level changes in the coastal area of the North Adriatic. Surge statistics produced from different climate model forcings for the IPCC A1B scenario have been studied to provide local information on climate change effects on coastal hydrodynamics due to meteorological effect. This typology of application has been considered a suitable tool for coastal management and can be considered a study field that will increase its importance in the more general investigation on scale interaction processes as the effects of global scale climate phenomena on local areas.

Emerging climate-driven disturbance processes: widespread mortality associated with snow-to-rain transitions across 10° of latitude and half the range of a climate-threatened conifer.

PubMed

Buma, Brian; Hennon, Paul E; Harrington, Constance A; Popkin, Jamie R; Krapek, John; Lamb, Melinda S; Oakes, Lauren E; Saunders, Sari; Zeglen, Stefan

2017-07-01

Climate change is causing rapid changes to forest disturbance regimes worldwide. While the consequences of climate change for existing disturbance processes, like fires, are relatively well studied, emerging drivers of disturbance such as snow loss and subsequent mortality are much less documented. As the climate warms, a transition from winter snow to rain in high latitudes will cause significant changes in environmental conditions such as soil temperatures, historically buffered by snow cover. The Pacific coast of North America is an excellent test case, as mean winter temperatures are currently at the snow-rain threshold and have been warming for approximately 100 years post-Little Ice Age. Increased mortality in a widespread tree species in the region has been linked to warmer winters and snow loss. Here, we present the first high-resolution range map of this climate-sensitive species, Callitropsis nootkatensis (yellow-cedar), and document the magnitude and location of observed mortality across Canada and the United States. Snow cover loss related mortality spans approximately 10° latitude (half the native range of the species) and 7% of the overall species range and appears linked to this snow-rain transition across its range. Mortality is commonly >70% of basal area in affected areas, and more common where mean winter temperatures is at or above the snow-rain threshold (>0 °C mean winter temperature). Approximately 50% of areas with a currently suitable climate for the species (<-2 °C) are expected to warm beyond that threshold by the late 21st century. Regardless of climate change scenario, little of the range which is expected to remain suitable in the future (e.g., a climatic refugia) is in currently protected landscapes (<1-9%). These results are the first documentation of this type of emerging climate disturbance and highlight the difficulties of anticipating novel disturbance processes when planning for conservation and management. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The seasonal influence of climate and environment on yellow fever transmission across Africa.

PubMed

Hamlet, Arran; Jean, Kévin; Perea, William; Yactayo, Sergio; Biey, Joseph; Van Kerkhove, Maria; Ferguson, Neil; Garske, Tini

2018-03-01

Yellow fever virus (YFV) is a vector-borne flavivirus endemic to Africa and Latin America. Ninety per cent of the global burden occurs in Africa where it is primarily transmitted by Aedes spp, with Aedes aegypti the main vector for urban yellow fever (YF). Mosquito life cycle and viral replication in the mosquito are heavily dependent on climate, particularly temperature and rainfall. We aimed to assess whether seasonal variations in climatic factors are associated with the seasonality of YF reports. We constructed a temperature suitability index for YFV transmission, capturing the temperature dependence of mosquito behaviour and viral replication within the mosquito. We then fitted a series of multilevel logistic regression models to a dataset of YF reports across Africa, considering location and seasonality of occurrence for seasonal models, against the temperature suitability index, rainfall and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as covariates alongside further demographic indicators. Model fit was assessed by the Area Under the Curve (AUC), and models were ranked by Akaike's Information Criterion which was used to weight model outputs to create combined model predictions. The seasonal model accurately captured both the geographic and temporal heterogeneities in YF transmission (AUC = 0.81), and did not perform significantly worse than the annual model which only captured the geographic distribution. The interaction between temperature suitability and rainfall accounted for much of the occurrence of YF, which offers a statistical explanation for the spatio-temporal variability in transmission. The description of seasonality offers an explanation for heterogeneities in the West-East YF burden across Africa. Annual climatic variables may indicate a transmission suitability not always reflected in seasonal interactions. This finding, in conjunction with forecasted data, could highlight areas of increased transmission and provide insights into the occurrence of large outbreaks, such as those seen in Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Brazil.

The seasonal influence of climate and environment on yellow fever transmission across Africa

PubMed Central

Hamlet, Arran; Perea, William; Yactayo, Sergio; Biey, Joseph; Van Kerkhove, Maria; Ferguson, Neil

2018-01-01

Background Yellow fever virus (YFV) is a vector-borne flavivirus endemic to Africa and Latin America. Ninety per cent of the global burden occurs in Africa where it is primarily transmitted by Aedes spp, with Aedes aegypti the main vector for urban yellow fever (YF). Mosquito life cycle and viral replication in the mosquito are heavily dependent on climate, particularly temperature and rainfall. We aimed to assess whether seasonal variations in climatic factors are associated with the seasonality of YF reports. Methodology/Principal findings We constructed a temperature suitability index for YFV transmission, capturing the temperature dependence of mosquito behaviour and viral replication within the mosquito. We then fitted a series of multilevel logistic regression models to a dataset of YF reports across Africa, considering location and seasonality of occurrence for seasonal models, against the temperature suitability index, rainfall and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as covariates alongside further demographic indicators. Model fit was assessed by the Area Under the Curve (AUC), and models were ranked by Akaike’s Information Criterion which was used to weight model outputs to create combined model predictions. The seasonal model accurately captured both the geographic and temporal heterogeneities in YF transmission (AUC = 0.81), and did not perform significantly worse than the annual model which only captured the geographic distribution. The interaction between temperature suitability and rainfall accounted for much of the occurrence of YF, which offers a statistical explanation for the spatio-temporal variability in transmission. Conclusions/Significance The description of seasonality offers an explanation for heterogeneities in the West-East YF burden across Africa. Annual climatic variables may indicate a transmission suitability not always reflected in seasonal interactions. This finding, in conjunction with forecasted data, could highlight areas of increased transmission and provide insights into the occurrence of large outbreaks, such as those seen in Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Brazil. PMID:29543798

Spatio-Temporal Identification of Areas Suitable for West Nile Disease in the Mediterranean Basin and Central Europe.

PubMed

Conte, Annamaria; Candeloro, Luca; Ippoliti, Carla; Monaco, Federica; De Massis, Fabrizio; Bruno, Rossana; Di Sabatino, Daria; Danzetta, Maria Luisa; Benjelloun, Abdennasser; Belkadi, Bouchra; El Harrak, Mehdi; Declich, Silvia; Rizzo, Caterina; Hammami, Salah; Ben Hassine, Thameur; Calistri, Paolo; Savini, Giovanni

2015-01-01

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-transmitted Flavivirus belonging to the Japanese encephalitis antigenic complex of the Flaviviridae family. Its spread in the Mediterranean basin and the Balkans poses a significant risk to human health and forces public health officials to constantly monitor the virus transmission to ensure prompt application of preventive measures. In this context, predictive tools indicating the areas and periods at major risk of WNV transmission are of paramount importance. Spatial analysis approaches, which use environmental and climatic variables to find suitable habitats for WNV spread, can enhance predictive techniques. Using the Mahalanobis Distance statistic, areas ecologically most suitable for sustaining WNV transmission were identified in the Mediterranean basin and Central Europe. About 270 human and equine clinical cases notified in Italy, Greece, Portugal, Morocco, and Tunisia, between 2008 and 2012, have been considered. The environmental variables included in the model were altitude, slope, night time Land Surface Temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Enhanced Vegetation Index, and daily temperature range. Seasonality of mosquito population has been modelled and included in the analyses to produce monthly maps of suitable areas for West Nile Disease. Between May and July, the most suitable areas are located in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and North Cyprus. Summer/Autumn months, particularly between August and October, characterize the suitability in Italy, France, Spain, the Balkan countries, Morocco, North Tunisia, the Mediterranean coast of Africa, and the Middle East. The persistence of suitable conditions in December is confined to the coastal areas of Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Israel.

Spatio-Temporal Identification of Areas Suitable for West Nile Disease in the Mediterranean Basin and Central Europe

PubMed Central

Conte, Annamaria; Candeloro, Luca; Ippoliti, Carla; Monaco, Federica; De Massis, Fabrizio; Bruno, Rossana; Di Sabatino, Daria; Danzetta, Maria Luisa; Benjelloun, Abdennasser; Belkadi, Bouchra; El Harrak, Mehdi; Declich, Silvia; Rizzo, Caterina; Hammami, Salah; Ben Hassine, Thameur; Calistri, Paolo; Savini, Giovanni

2015-01-01

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-transmitted Flavivirus belonging to the Japanese encephalitis antigenic complex of the Flaviviridae family. Its spread in the Mediterranean basin and the Balkans poses a significant risk to human health and forces public health officials to constantly monitor the virus transmission to ensure prompt application of preventive measures. In this context, predictive tools indicating the areas and periods at major risk of WNV transmission are of paramount importance. Spatial analysis approaches, which use environmental and climatic variables to find suitable habitats for WNV spread, can enhance predictive techniques. Using the Mahalanobis Distance statistic, areas ecologically most suitable for sustaining WNV transmission were identified in the Mediterranean basin and Central Europe. About 270 human and equine clinical cases notified in Italy, Greece, Portugal, Morocco, and Tunisia, between 2008 and 2012, have been considered. The environmental variables included in the model were altitude, slope, night time Land Surface Temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Enhanced Vegetation Index, and daily temperature range. Seasonality of mosquito population has been modelled and included in the analyses to produce monthly maps of suitable areas for West Nile Disease. Between May and July, the most suitable areas are located in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and North Cyprus. Summer/Autumn months, particularly between August and October, characterize the suitability in Italy, France, Spain, the Balkan countries, Morocco, North Tunisia, the Mediterranean coast of Africa, and the Middle East. The persistence of suitable conditions in December is confined to the coastal areas of Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Israel. PMID:26717483

Assesment of future river habitat suitability under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy (Serio River, Italian Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groppelli, B.; Confortola, G.; Soncini, A.; Bocchiola, D.; Rosso, R.

2011-12-01

We merge hydraulic river modelling, use of suitability functions for fish guild colonization and hydrological modelling of catchment response to investigate future (until 2100) hydrological cycle and fish habitat suitability for an Alpine catchment in Italy, Serio river (drainage area 450 Km2, average altitude 1300 m a.s.l., main channel length ca. 36 km). Based upon detailed river channel morphology data for 73 river sections and direct local investigation we then set up and tune a quasi 2-D (i.e. with floodplains) hydraulic model for in channel flows hydraulics, depending upon daily in stream discharge. We then evaluate distributed values of hydraulic variables and therein composite habitat suitability indexes CS for a representative target species (brown trout, Salmo Trutta Fario L.), resulting into usable wetted area WUA for fish colonization. We consider both juvenile JUV and adults AD, and we evaluate the frequency (days in a year/season) of yearly/seasonal, spatially distributed and bulk (whole stream) habitat quality. We then provide synthetic indicators of (yearly/seasonal) suitability level and duration within the river. We then set up a minimal (T, P), properly tuned hydrological model able to mimick Serio river's hydrological cycle. We then use downscaled future precipitation and temperature from three general circulation models, GCMs (PCM, CCSM3, and HadCM3) available within the IPCC's data base chosen for the purpose based upon previous studies, to feed our hydrological model and provide projected hydrological regime of the catchment, together with modified habitat suitability. We then comment upon modified flow regime, habitat suitability as obtained and related uncertainty. The proposed results may be of use for river managers and may provide a template for investigation about future river habitat quality pending climate change.

A GIS framework for the assessment of tick impact on human health in a changing climate.

PubMed

Estrada-Peña, Agustin; Venzal, José M

2007-05-01

A framework to evaluate the impact of ticks on human health under various scenarios of climate change is proposed. The purpose is not to provide a comprehensive plan (e.g. the economic impact of ticks on human society is not included), instead we wish to describe a series of indices that would be helpful by obtaining homogeneous comparisons of impact and vulnerability exerted by ticks in different regions, countries or continents, using normalized sets of population, vegetation, climate and physical attributes of the territory. Three tick species, i.e. Dermacentor marginatus, Rhipicephalus turanicus and Hyalomma marginatum, have been traced over the territory of Spain to further explain the computation of these indices. The discussion is based on tick habitat suitability, used as a measure of the abiotic (climate) fitness of the habitat for the species in question, and the sensitivity of each tick species to the rate of change of habitat suitability with respect to climate change. The impact is the rate of change in habitat suitability weighted with a fuzzy logic function evaluating the total number of people in an area, percent of rural population and accessibility of the geographical divisions (expressed as hexagons with a 10 km radius) used in the study. The different climate scenarios evaluated in relation to ticks show that the north-western part of Spain would suffer the greatest impact in case the mean temperature would increase, while the Mediterranean region would suffer the highest impact if temperatures decreased. Vulnerability, based on the sanitary structure of the territory and on the impact on human activities due to the change in tick distribution and abundance, is proposed as a measure of adaptation of society to these climate scenarios. The cost is evaluated as a function of land use and tick habitat suitability in a buffer zone surrounding each geographic division. All indices proposed have been obtained by search of common and/or publicly available data sets.

Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martens, W.J.M.; Rotmans, J.; Niessen, L.W.

The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due tomore » expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. 33 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.« less

Connectivity planning to address climate change.

PubMed

Nuñez, Tristan A; Lawler, Joshua J; McRae, Brad H; Pierce, D John; Krosby, Meade B; Kavanagh, Darren M; Singleton, Peter H; Tewksbury, Joshua J

2013-04-01

As the climate changes, human land use may impede species from tracking areas with suitable climates. Maintaining connectivity between areas of different temperatures could allow organisms to move along temperature gradients and allow species to continue to occupy the same temperature space as the climate warms. We used a coarse-filter approach to identify broad corridors for movement between areas where human influence is low while simultaneously routing the corridors along present-day spatial gradients of temperature. We modified a cost-distance algorithm to model these corridors and tested the model with data on current land-use and climate patterns in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The resulting maps identified a network of patches and corridors across which species may move as climates change. The corridors are likely to be robust to uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of future climate change because they are derived from gradients and land-use patterns. The assumptions we applied in our model simplified the stability of temperature gradients and species responses to climate change and land use, but the model is flexible enough to be tailored to specific regions by incorporating other climate variables or movement costs. When used at appropriate resolutions, our approach may be of value to local, regional, and continental conservation initiatives seeking to promote species movements in a changing climate. Planificación de Conectividad para Atender el Cambio Climático. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Global Climate and the Security of the European Union

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-15

lead to degradation of grasslands and boreal and tropical forests, desertification , water resources stress and coral bleaching, but “conflicts in...reinforced by desertification , soil salinization or water scarcity. In South Asia and North Africa, for example, the areas suitable for agriculture are...the forest species composition. Reduced productivity, more extensive forest fires and desertification in some areas are expected in Mediterranean

Modeling intrinsic potential for beaver (Castor canadensis) habitat to inform restoration and climate change adaptation

PubMed Central

Pollock, Michael M.; Schilling, Jason W.; Olden, Julian D.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Torgersen, Christian E.

2018-01-01

Through their dam-building activities and subsequent water storage, beaver have the potential to restore riparian ecosystems and offset some of the predicted effects of climate change by modulating streamflow. Thus, it is not surprising that reintroducing beaver to watersheds from which they have been extirpated is an often-used restoration and climate-adaptation strategy. Identifying sites for reintroduction, however, requires detailed information about habitat factors—information that is not often available at broad spatial scales. Here we explore the potential for beaver relocation throughout the Snohomish River Basin in Washington, USA with a model that identifies some of the basic building blocks of beaver habitat suitability and does so by relying solely on remotely sensed data. More specifically, we developed a generalized intrinsic potential model that draws on remotely sensed measures of stream gradient, stream width, and valley width to identify where beaver could become established if suitable vegetation were to be present. Thus, the model serves as a preliminary screening tool that can be applied over relatively large extents. We applied the model to 5,019 stream km and assessed the ability of the model to correctly predict beaver habitat by surveying for beavers in 352 stream reaches. To further assess the potential for relocation, we assessed land ownership, use, and land cover in the landscape surrounding stream reaches with varying levels of intrinsic potential. Model results showed that 33% of streams had moderate or high intrinsic potential for beaver habitat. We found that no site that was classified as having low intrinsic potential had any sign of beavers and that beaver were absent from nearly three quarters of potentially suitable sites, indicating that there are factors preventing the local population from occupying these areas. Of the riparian areas around streams with high intrinsic potential for beaver, 38% are on public lands and 17% are on large tracts of privately-owned timber land. Thus, although there are a large number of areas that could be suitable for relocation and restoration using beavers, current land use patterns may substantially limit feasibility in these areas. PMID:29489853

Modeling intrinsic potential for beaver (Castor canadensis) habitat to inform restoration and climate change adaptation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dittbrenner, Benjamin J.; Pollack, Michael M.; Schilling, Jason W.; Olden, Julian D.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Torgersen, Christian E.

2018-01-01

Through their dam-building activities and subsequent water storage, beaver have the potential to restore riparian ecosystems and offset some of the predicted effects of climate change by modulating streamflow. Thus, it is not surprising that reintroducing beaver to watersheds from which they have been extirpated is an often-used restoration and climate-adaptation strategy. Identifying sites for reintroduction, however, requires detailed information about habitat factors—information that is not often available at broad spatial scales. Here we explore the potential for beaver relocation throughout the Snohomish River Basin in Washington, USA with a model that identifies some of the basic building blocks of beaver habitat suitability and does so by relying solely on remotely sensed data. More specifically, we developed a generalized intrinsic potential model that draws on remotely sensed measures of stream gradient, stream width, and valley width to identify where beaver could become established if suitable vegetation were to be present. Thus, the model serves as a preliminary screening tool that can be applied over relatively large extents. We applied the model to 5,019 stream km and assessed the ability of the model to correctly predict beaver habitat by surveying for beavers in 352 stream reaches. To further assess the potential for relocation, we assessed land ownership, use, and land cover in the landscape surrounding stream reaches with varying levels of intrinsic potential. Model results showed that 33% of streams had moderate or high intrinsic potential for beaver habitat. We found that no site that was classified as having low intrinsic potential had any sign of beavers and that beaver were absent from nearly three quarters of potentially suitable sites, indicating that there are factors preventing the local population from occupying these areas. Of the riparian areas around streams with high intrinsic potential for beaver, 38% are on public lands and 17% are on large tracts of privately-owned timber land. Thus, although there are a large number of areas that could be suitable for relocation and restoration using beavers, current land use patterns may substantially limit feasibility in these areas.

Modeling intrinsic potential for beaver (Castor canadensis) habitat to inform restoration and climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Dittbrenner, Benjamin J; Pollock, Michael M; Schilling, Jason W; Olden, Julian D; Lawler, Joshua J; Torgersen, Christian E

2018-01-01

Through their dam-building activities and subsequent water storage, beaver have the potential to restore riparian ecosystems and offset some of the predicted effects of climate change by modulating streamflow. Thus, it is not surprising that reintroducing beaver to watersheds from which they have been extirpated is an often-used restoration and climate-adaptation strategy. Identifying sites for reintroduction, however, requires detailed information about habitat factors-information that is not often available at broad spatial scales. Here we explore the potential for beaver relocation throughout the Snohomish River Basin in Washington, USA with a model that identifies some of the basic building blocks of beaver habitat suitability and does so by relying solely on remotely sensed data. More specifically, we developed a generalized intrinsic potential model that draws on remotely sensed measures of stream gradient, stream width, and valley width to identify where beaver could become established if suitable vegetation were to be present. Thus, the model serves as a preliminary screening tool that can be applied over relatively large extents. We applied the model to 5,019 stream km and assessed the ability of the model to correctly predict beaver habitat by surveying for beavers in 352 stream reaches. To further assess the potential for relocation, we assessed land ownership, use, and land cover in the landscape surrounding stream reaches with varying levels of intrinsic potential. Model results showed that 33% of streams had moderate or high intrinsic potential for beaver habitat. We found that no site that was classified as having low intrinsic potential had any sign of beavers and that beaver were absent from nearly three quarters of potentially suitable sites, indicating that there are factors preventing the local population from occupying these areas. Of the riparian areas around streams with high intrinsic potential for beaver, 38% are on public lands and 17% are on large tracts of privately-owned timber land. Thus, although there are a large number of areas that could be suitable for relocation and restoration using beavers, current land use patterns may substantially limit feasibility in these areas.

Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century.

PubMed

Tjaden, Nils B; Suk, Jonathan E; Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie M; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Semenza, Jan C

2017-06-19

The arrival and rapid spread of the mosquito-borne viral disease Chikungunya across the Americas is one of the most significant public health developments of recent years, preceding and mirroring the subsequent spread of Zika. Globalization in trade and travel can lead to the importation of these viruses, but climatic conditions strongly affect the efficiency of transmission in local settings. In order to direct preparedness for future outbreaks, it is necessary to anticipate global regions that could become suitable for Chikungunya transmission. Here, we present global correlative niche models for autochthonous Chikungunya transmission. These models were used as the basis for projections under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. In a further step, hazard maps, which account for population densities, were produced. The baseline models successfully delineate current areas of active Chikungunya transmission. Projections under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios suggest the likelihood of expansion of transmission-suitable areas in many parts of the world, including China, sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the United States and continental Europe. The models presented here can be used to inform public health preparedness planning in a highly interconnected world.

Role of genetics in adapting forests under climate change: lessons learned from common garden experiments in central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Schueler, Silvio

2017-04-01

Adaptive management aiming at reducing vulnerability and enhancing the resilience of forested ecosystems is a key to preserving the potential of forests to provide multiple ecosystem services under climate change. Planting alternative or non native tree species adapted to future conditions and also utilizing the genetic variation within tree species has also been suggested as an important adaptive management strategy under climate change. Therefore, knowledge on suitable provenances/populations is a key issue. Provenance trial experiments, where several populations of a species are planted in a particular climate or throughout an appropriate climatic gradient offers a great opportunity to understand adaptive genetic variation within a tree species. These trials were primarily established, for identifying populations with desired growth and fitness characteristics. Due to the increasing interest in climate change, such trials were revisited to understand the relation between growth performance and climate and to recommend suitable populations for future conditions. Here we present the lessons learned from provenance trials of Norway spruce and Douglas -fir in central Europe. With data from provenance trials planted across a wide range of environmental conditions in central Europe we developed multivariate models, Universal Response Functions (URFs). The URFs predict growth performance as a function of climate of planting locations (i.e. environmental factors) and provenance/ population origin (i.e. genetic factors). The flexibility of the URFs as a decision making tool is remarkable. The model can be used as to identify suitable planting material for a give site, and vice versa and also as a species distribution model (SDM) with integrated genetic variation. Under current and climate change scenarios, the URFs were applied to predict populations with higher growth performance in central Europe and also as species distribution models for Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirbel] Franco) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst). For both Douglas-fir and Norway spruce wide variation in growth performance were detected. Populations of Douglas-fir identified by the URFs to be optimum for central Europe current climate and climate change scenarios originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of British Columbia, Washington and Oregon. The current seed stands of Douglas-fir in North America, providing planting materials for Central Europe under the legal framework of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) were found to be suitable for under future conditions. In case of Norway spruce provenances originating from warm and drier regions of south east Europe were found to be suitable for central Europe under future conditions. Even though calibrated with data from Central Europe, when applied as SDMs, the URFs predicted the observed occurrence of Douglas-fir in its native range in North America with reasonable accuracy compared to contemporary SDMs developed in North America. For both Douglas-fir and Norway spruce significant variation in habitat suitability was found depending on the planted population or seed source indicating the role of intraspecific variation in buffering effects of climate change.

Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System.

PubMed

Semenza, Jan C; Trinanes, Joaquin; Lohr, Wolfgang; Sudre, Bertrand; Löfdahl, Margareta; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime; Nichols, Gordon L; Rocklöv, Joacim

2017-10-10

Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure-response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16°C revealed a relative risk (RR)=1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198.

Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System

PubMed Central

Trinanes, Joaquin; Lohr, Wolfgang; Sudre, Bertrand; Löfdahl, Margareta; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime; Nichols, Gordon L.; Rocklöv, Joacim

2017-01-01

Background: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). Objectives: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. Methods: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Results: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure–response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16°C revealed a relative risk (RR)=1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. Conclusions: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198 PMID:29017986

Evaluating simplistic methods to understand current distributions and forecast distribution changes under climate change scenarios: An example with coypu (Myocastor coypus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E; Sheffels, Trevor R.; Carter, Jacoby; Systma, Mark D.; Talbert, Colin

2017-01-01

Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions.

The Use of Climatic Niches in Screening Procedures for Introduced Species to Evaluate Risk of Spread: A Case with the American Eastern Grey Squirrel

PubMed Central

Di Febbraro, Mirko; Lurz, Peter W. W.; Genovesi, Piero; Maiorano, Luigi; Girardello, Marco; Bertolino, Sandro

2013-01-01

Species introduction represents one of the most serious threats for biodiversity. The realized climatic niche of an invasive species can be used to predict its potential distribution in new areas, providing a basis for screening procedures in the compilation of black and white lists to prevent new introductions. We tested this assertion by modeling the realized climatic niche of the Eastern grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis. Maxent was used to develop three models: one considering only records from the native range (NRM), a second including records from native and invasive range (NIRM), a third calibrated with invasive occurrences and projected in the native range (RCM). Niche conservatism was tested considering both a niche equivalency and a niche similarity test. NRM failed to predict suitable parts of the currently invaded range in Europe, while RCM underestimated the suitability in the native range. NIRM accurately predicted both the native and invasive range. The niche equivalency hypothesis was rejected due to a significant difference between the grey squirrel’s niche in native and invasive ranges. The niche similarity test yielded no significant results. Our analyses support the hypothesis of a shift in the species’ climatic niche in the area of introductions. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) appear to be a useful tool in the compilation of black lists, allowing identifying areas vulnerable to invasions. We advise caution in the use of SDMs based only on the native range of a species for the compilation of white lists for other geographic areas, due to the significant risk of underestimating its potential invasive range. PMID:23843957

Apparent climate-mediated loss and fragmentation of core habitat of the American pika in the Northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA.

PubMed

Stewart, Joseph A E; Wright, David H; Heckman, Katherine A

2017-01-01

Contemporary climate change has been widely documented as the apparent cause of range contraction at the edge of many species distributions but documentation of climate change as a cause of extirpation and fragmentation of the interior of a species' core habitat has been lacking. Here, we report the extirpation of the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a temperature-sensitive small mammal, from a 165-km2 area located within its core habitat in California's Sierra Nevada mountains. While sites surrounding the area still maintain pikas, radiocarbon analyses of pika fecal pellets recovered within this area indicate that former patch occupancy ranges from before 1955, the beginning of the atmospheric spike in radiocarbon associated with above ground atomic bomb testing, to c. 1991. Despite an abundance of suitable rocky habitat climate warming appears to have precipitated their demise. Weather station data reveal a 1.9°C rise in local temperature and a significant decline in snowpack over the period of record, 1910-2015, pushing pika habitat into increasingly tenuous climate conditions during the period of extirpation. This is among the first accounts of an apparently climate-mediated, modern extirpation of a species from an interior portion of its geographic distribution, resulting in habitat fragmentation, and is the largest area yet reported for a modern-era pika extirpation. Our finding provides empirical support to model projections, indicating that even core areas of species habitat are vulnerable to climate change within a timeframe of decades.

Developing an Agro-Ecological Zoning Model for Tumbleweed (Salsola kali), as Energy Crop in Drylands of Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falasca, Silvia; Pitta-Alvarez, Sandra; Ulberich, Ana

2016-12-01

Salsola kali is considered extremely valuable as an energy crop worldwide because it adapts easily to environments with strong abiotic stresses (hydric, saline and alkaline) and produces large amounts of biomass in drylands. This species is categorized as an important weed in Argentina. The aim of this work was to design an agro-ecological zoning model for tumbleweed in Argentina, employing a Geography Information System. Based on the bioclimatic requirements for the species and the climatic data for Argentina (1981-2010 period), an agro-climatic suitability map was drawn. This map was superimposed on the saline and alkaline soil maps delineated by the Food and Agriculture Organization for dry climates, generating the agro-ecological zoning on a scale of 1 : 500 000. This zoning revealed very suitable and suitable cultivation areas on halomorphic soils. The potential growing areas extend from N of the Salta province (approximately 22° S) to the Santa Cruz province (50° S). The use of tumbleweed on halomorphic soils under semi-arid to arid conditions, for the dual purpose of forage use and source of lignocellulosic material for bioenergy, could improve agricultural productivity in these lands. Furthermore, it could also contribute to their environmental sustainability, since the species can be used to reclaim saline soils over the years. Based on international bibliography, the authors outlined an agro-ecological zoning model. This model may be applied to any part of the world, using the agro-ecological limits presented here.

Reevaluating Suitability Estimates Based on Dynamics of Cropland Expansion in the Brazilian Amazon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morton, Douglas C.; Noojipady, Praveen; Macedo, Marcia M.; Victoria, Daniel C.; Bolfe, Edson L.

2016-01-01

Agricultural suitability maps are a key input for land use zoning and projections of cropland expansion. Suitability assessments typically consider edaphic conditions, climate, crop characteristics, and sometimes incorporate accessibility to transportation and market infrastructure. However, correct weighting among these disparate factors is challenging, given rapid development of new crop varieties, irrigation, and road networks, as well as changing global demand for agricultural commodities. Here, we compared three independent assessments of cropland suitability to spatial and temporal dynamics of agricultural expansion in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 2001 2012. We found that areas of recent cropland expansion identified using satellite data were generally designated as low to moderate suitability for rainfed crop production. Our analysis highlighted the abrupt nature of suitability boundaries, rather than smooth gradients of agricultural potential, with little additional cropland expansion beyond the extent of the flattest areas (0-2% slope). Satellite-based estimates of the interannual variability in the use of existing crop areas also provided an alternate means to assess suitability. On average, cropland areas in the Cerrado biome had higher utilization (84%) than croplands in the Amazon region of northern Mato Grosso (74%). Areas of more recent expansion had lower utilization than croplands established before 2002, providing empirical evidence for lower suitability or alternative management strategies (e.g., pasture soya rotations) for lands undergoing more recent land use transitions. This unplanted reserve constitutes a large area of potentially available cropland (PAC)without further expansion, within the management limits imposed for pest management and fallow cycles. Using two key constraints on future cropland expansion, slope and restrictions on further deforestation of Amazon or Cerrado vegetation, we found little available flat land for further legal expansion of crop production in Mato Grosso. Dynamics of cropland expansion from more than a decade of satellite observations indicated narrow ranges of suitability criteria, restricting PAC under current policy conditions, and emphasizing the advantages of field-scale information to assess suitability and utilization.

Alien plant invasions--incorporating emerging invaders in regional prioritization: a pragmatic approach for Southern Africa.

PubMed

Mgidi, Theresa N; Le Maitre, David C; Schonegevel, Lucille; Nel, Jeanne L; Rouget, Mathieu; Richardson, David M

2007-07-01

Plant invasions are a serious threat to natural and semi-natural ecosystems worldwide. Most management-orientated research on invasions focuses on invaders that are already widespread and often have major impacts. This paper deals with "emerging" invaders-those alien species with the potential to become important problems without timely intervention. A climate matching procedure was developed to define areas of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland that could be invaded by 28 plant species that had previously been classified as emerging invaders. Information on the location of populations of these species in the study area was combined with information on their distributions (as native or alien) in parts of Australia and the United States of America. These two countries had the best available distribution data for this study. They also share many invasive alien plant species with South Africa. Climatic data obtained for weather stations near points of known occurrence in these countries were used to define the climatically suitable areas for each species in the study area. Almost 80% of the remaining natural environment in southern Africa was found to be vulnerable to invasion by at least one of these species, 50% by six or more and 24% by 16 or more species. The most vulnerable areas are the highveld grasslands and the eastern escarpment. The emerging invaders with the greatest potential range included Acacia podalyriifolia and Cortaderia selloana. The globally important invaders Ulex europaeus and Lythrum salicaria had a more limited invasion potential but could still become major invaders. There was no relationship between the extent of the climatically suitable areas for the different species and an expert ranking of their invasion potential, emphasising the uncertainties inherent in making expert assessments based on very little information. The methods used in this analysis establish a protocol for future modelling exercises to assess the invasion potential of other emerging invaders.

[Study on eco-climatic applicability of Angelica sinensis].

PubMed

Deng, Zhen-Yong; Yin, Xian-Zhi; Yin, Dong; Yang, Qi-Guo; Zhu, Guo-Qing; Liu, Ming-Chun

2005-06-01

In the interest of establish planting base of Angelica sinensis on a large scale, enhance economic benefit, and improve decision-making reasons, the eco-climatic applicability of A. sinensis was studied. Using integral regression, eco-climatic applicability and the effect of meteorological conditions for the yield of A. sinensis' were analysed by field experimental data. Selected > or =0 degrees C accumulated temperature and annual precipitation as leading index, altitude as assistant index, yield and rate of finished products as reference index, the integrated eco-climatic division index and the planting division applicability of A. sinensis was confirmed. Accordancing to theory of climate similitude and leading index summarisation, combining with assistant index and reference index, the integrated division index of eco-climate was confirmed. The planting division of co-climate applicability was divided into 5 grades as best suitable, suitable hypo-suitable, just suitable and no suitable regions. At the same time,the way to enhanced utilizing efficiency of eco-climate resources was brought forward.

Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

PubMed

Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

2016-07-01

Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Urban climate, weather and sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, Gerald

As concentrated areas of human activities, urban areas and urbanization are key drivers of global environmental change and pose a challenge to the achievement of sustainability. One of the key goals of sustainable development is to separate increases in non-renewable resource use (particularly fossil fuels) from economic growth. This is to be accomplished by modifying individual practices, encouraging technological innovation and redesigning systems of production and consumption. Settlements represent a scale at which significant advances on each of these can be made and where there is an existing management structure. However, urban areas currently consume a disproportionate share of the Earth's resources and urbanization has modified local climate and weather significantly, usually to the detriment of urban dwellers. There is now a lengthy history of urban climate study that links existing settlement form to climatic consequences yet, there is little evidence that climate information is incorporated into urban designs or that the climatic impact of different plans is considered. Consequently, opportunities for planning sustainable urban forms that are suitable to local climates and promote energy conservation and healthy atmospheres are not taken and much effort is later expended in `fixing' problems that emerge. This paper will outline the links between urban climate and sustainability, identify gaps in our urban climate knowledge and discuss the opportunities and barriers to the application of this knowledge to urban design and planning.

From points to forecasts: Predicting invasive species habitat suitability in the near term

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holcombe, Tracy R.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

2010-01-01

We used near-term climate scenarios for the continental United States, to model 12 invasive plants species. We created three potential habitat suitability models for each species using maximum entropy modeling: (1) current; (2) 2020; and (3) 2035. Area under the curve values for the models ranged from 0.92 to 0.70, with 10 of the 12 being above 0.83 suggesting strong and predictable species-environment matching. Change in area between the current potential habitat and 2035 ranged from a potential habitat loss of about 217,000 km2, to a potential habitat gain of about 133,000 km2.

Effects of climate and different management strategies on Aedes aegypti breeding sites: a longitudinal survey in Brasília (DF, Brazil).

PubMed

Favier, Charly; Degallier, Nicolas; Vilarinhos, Paulo de Tarso Ribeiro; de Carvalho, Maria do Socorro Laurentino; Yoshizawa, Maria Amelia Cavalcanti; Knox, Monique Britto

2006-07-01

To determine the influence of climate and of environmental vector control with or without insecticide on Aedes aegypti larval indices and pupae density. An 18-month longitudinal survey of infestation of Ae. aegypti immature stages was conducted for the 1015 residences (premises) of Vila Planalto, an area of Brasilia where the Breteau Index was about 40 before the study. This area was divided into five zones: a control zone with environmental management alone and four zones with insecticide treatment (methoprene, Bti, temephos). We tested for significant differences between infestation levels in the control and insecticide-treated areas, for relationships between climatic variables and larval indices, and to determine risk factors of infestation for certain types of premises and containers. Environmental vector control strategies dramatically decreased infestation in the five areas. No significant differences could be detected between control strategies with insecticide and without. Some premises and container types were particularly suitable for breeding. The influence of climate on the emergence of Ae. aegypti adults for the area is described. In a moderately infested area such as Brasilia, insecticides do not improve environmental vector control. Rather, infestations could be further reduced by focusing on residences and containers particularly at risk. The nature of the link between climate and larval population should be investigated in larger-scale studies before being used in forecasting models.

The Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Arabica Coffee (Coffea arabica): Predicting Future Trends and Identifying Priorities

PubMed Central

Gole, Tadesse Woldemariam; Baena, Susana

2012-01-01

Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change. PMID:23144840

Predicting breeding shorebird distributions on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saalfeld, Sarah T.; Lanctot, Richard B.; Brown, Stephen C.; Saalfeld, David T.; Johnson, James A.; Andres, Brad A.; Bart, Jonathan R.

2013-01-01

The Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska is an important region for millions of migrating and nesting shorebirds. However, this region is threatened by climate change and increased human development (e.g., oil and gas production) that have the potential to greatly impact shorebird populations and breeding habitat in the near future. Because historic data on shorebird distributions in the ACP are very coarse and incomplete, we sought to develop detailed, contemporary distribution maps so that the potential impacts of climate-mediated changes and development could be ascertained. To do this, we developed and mapped habitat suitability indices for eight species of shorebirds (Black-bellied Plover [Pluvialis squatarola], American Golden-Plover [Pluvialis dominica], Semipalmated Sandpiper [Calidris pusilla], Pectoral Sandpiper [Calidris melanotos], Dunlin [Calidris alpina], Long-billed Dowitcher [Limnodromus scolopaceus], Red-necked Phalarope [Phalaropus lobatus], and Red Phalarope [Phalaropus fulicarius]) that commonly breed within the ACP of Alaska. These habitat suitability models were based on 767 plots surveyed during nine years between 1998 and 2008 (surveys were not conducted in 2003 and 2005), using single-visit rapid area searches during territory establishment and incubation (8 June, 1 July). Species specific habitat suitability indices were developed and mapped using presence-only modeling techniques (partitioned Mahalanobis distance) and landscape environmental variables. For most species, habitat suitability was greater at lower elevations (i.e., near the coast and river deltas) and lower within upland habitats. Accuracy of models was high for all species, ranging from 65 -98%. Our models predicted that the largest fraction of suitable habitat for the majority of species occurred within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, with highly suitable habitat also occurring within coastal areas of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge west to Prudhoe Bay.

Climate limits across space and time on European forest structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno, A. L. S.; Neumann, M.; Hasenauer, H.

2017-12-01

The impact climate has on forests has been extensively studied. However, the large scale effect climate has on forest structures, such as average diameters, heights and basal area are understudied in a spatially explicit manner. The limits, tipping points and thresholds that climate places on forest structures dictate the services a forest may provide, the vulnerability of a forest to mortality and the potential value of the timber there within. The majority of current research either investigates climate impacts on forest pools and fluxes, on a tree physiological scale or on case studies that are used to extrapolate results and potential impacts. A spatially explicit study on how climate affects forest structure over a large region would give valuable information to stakeholders who are more concerned with ecosystem services that cannot be described by pools and fluxes but require spatially explicit information - such as biodiversity, habitat suitability, and market values. In this study, we quantified the limits that climate (maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation) places on 3 forest structures, diameter at breast height, height, and basal area throughout Europe. Our results show clear climatic zones of high and low upper limits for each forest structure variable studied. We also spatially analyzed how climate restricts the potential bio-physical upper limits and creates tipping points of each forest structure variable and which climate factors are most limiting. Further, we demonstrated how the climate change has affected 8 individual forests across Europe and then the continent as a whole. We find that diameter, height and basal area are limited by climate in different ways and that areas may have high upper limits in one structure and low upper limits in another limitted by different climate variables. We also found that even though individual forests may have increased their potential upper limit forest structure values, European forests as a whole have lost, on average, 5.0%, 1.7% and 6.5% in potential mean forest diameter, height and basal area, respectively.

Changing climate, challenging choices: identifying and evaluating climate change adaptation options for protected areas management in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Lemieux, Christopher J; Scott, Daniel J

2011-10-01

Climate change will pose increasingly significant challenges to managers of parks and other forms of protected areas around the world. Over the past two decades, numerous scientific publications have identified potential adaptations, but their suitability from legal, policy, financial, internal capacity, and other management perspectives has not been evaluated for any protected area agency or organization. In this study, a panel of protected area experts applied a Policy Delphi methodology to identify and evaluate climate change adaptation options across the primary management areas of a protected area agency in Canada. The panel identified and evaluated one hundred and sixty five (165) adaptation options for their perceived desirability and feasibility. While the results revealed a high level of agreement with respect to the desirability of adaptation options and a moderate level of capacity pertaining to policy formulation and management direction, a perception of low capacity for implementation in most other program areas was identified. A separate panel of senior park agency decision-makers used a multiple criterion decision-facilitation matrix to further evaluate the institutional feasibility of the 56 most desirable adaptation options identified by the initial expert panel and to prioritize them for consideration in a climate change action plan. Critically, only two of the 56 adaptation options evaluated by senior decision-makers were deemed definitely implementable, due largely to fiscal and internal capacity limitations. These challenges are common to protected area agencies in developed countries and pervade those in developing countries, revealing that limited adaptive capacity represents a substantive barrier to biodiversity conservation and other protected area management objectives in an era of rapid climate change.

Changing Climate, Challenging Choices: Identifying and Evaluating Climate Change Adaptation Options for Protected Areas Management in Ontario, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemieux, Christopher J.; Scott, Daniel J.

2011-10-01

Climate change will pose increasingly significant challenges to managers of parks and other forms of protected areas around the world. Over the past two decades, numerous scientific publications have identified potential adaptations, but their suitability from legal, policy, financial, internal capacity, and other management perspectives has not been evaluated for any protected area agency or organization. In this study, a panel of protected area experts applied a Policy Delphi methodology to identify and evaluate climate change adaptation options across the primary management areas of a protected area agency in Canada. The panel identified and evaluated one hundred and sixty five (165) adaptation options for their perceived desirability and feasibility. While the results revealed a high level of agreement with respect to the desirability of adaptation options and a moderate level of capacity pertaining to policy formulation and management direction, a perception of low capacity for implementation in most other program areas was identified. A separate panel of senior park agency decision-makers used a multiple criterion decision-facilitation matrix to further evaluate the institutional feasibility of the 56 most desirable adaptation options identified by the initial expert panel and to prioritize them for consideration in a climate change action plan. Critically, only two of the 56 adaptation options evaluated by senior decision-makers were deemed definitely implementable, due largely to fiscal and internal capacity limitations. These challenges are common to protected area agencies in developed countries and pervade those in developing countries, revealing that limited adaptive capacity represents a substantive barrier to biodiversity conservation and other protected area management objectives in an era of rapid climate change.

Putting Climate Adaptation on the Map: Developing Spatial Management Strategies for Whitebark Pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

PubMed

Ireland, Kathryn B; Hansen, Andrew J; Keane, Robert E; Legg, Kristin; Gump, Robert L

2018-06-01

Natural resource managers face the need to develop strategies to adapt to projected future climates. Few existing climate adaptation frameworks prescribe where to place management actions to be most effective under anticipated future climate conditions. We developed an approach to spatially allocate climate adaptation actions and applied the method to whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). WBP is expected to be vulnerable to climate-mediated shifts in suitable habitat, pests, pathogens, and fire. We spatially prioritized management actions aimed at mitigating climate impacts to WBP under two management strategies: (1) current management and (2) climate-informed management. The current strategy reflected management actions permissible under existing policy and access constraints. Our goal was to understand how consideration of climate might alter the placement of management actions, so the climate-informed strategies did not include these constraints. The spatial distribution of actions differed among the current and climate-informed management strategies, with 33-60% more wilderness area prioritized for action under climate-informed management. High priority areas for implementing management actions include the 1-8% of the GYE where current and climate-informed management agreed, since this is where actions are most likely to be successful in the long-term and where current management permits implementation. Areas where climate-informed strategies agreed with one another but not with current management (6-22% of the GYE) are potential locations for experimental testing of management actions. Our method for spatial climate adaptation planning is applicable to any species for which information regarding climate vulnerability and climate-mediated risk factors is available.

Putting Climate Adaptation on the Map: Developing Spatial Management Strategies for Whitebark Pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ireland, Kathryn B.; Hansen, Andrew J.; Keane, Robert E.; Legg, Kristin; Gump, Robert L.

2018-06-01

Natural resource managers face the need to develop strategies to adapt to projected future climates. Few existing climate adaptation frameworks prescribe where to place management actions to be most effective under anticipated future climate conditions. We developed an approach to spatially allocate climate adaptation actions and applied the method to whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). WBP is expected to be vulnerable to climate-mediated shifts in suitable habitat, pests, pathogens, and fire. We spatially prioritized management actions aimed at mitigating climate impacts to WBP under two management strategies: (1) current management and (2) climate-informed management. The current strategy reflected management actions permissible under existing policy and access constraints. Our goal was to understand how consideration of climate might alter the placement of management actions, so the climate-informed strategies did not include these constraints. The spatial distribution of actions differed among the current and climate-informed management strategies, with 33-60% more wilderness area prioritized for action under climate-informed management. High priority areas for implementing management actions include the 1-8% of the GYE where current and climate-informed management agreed, since this is where actions are most likely to be successful in the long-term and where current management permits implementation. Areas where climate-informed strategies agreed with one another but not with current management (6-22% of the GYE) are potential locations for experimental testing of management actions. Our method for spatial climate adaptation planning is applicable to any species for which information regarding climate vulnerability and climate-mediated risk factors is available.

Mapping regional risks from climate change for rainfed rice cultivation in India.

PubMed

Singh, Kuntal; McClean, Colin J; Büker, Patrick; Hartley, Sue E; Hill, Jane K

2017-09-01

Global warming is predicted to increase in the future, with detrimental consequences for rainfed crops that are dependent on natural rainfall (i.e. non-irrigated). Given that many crops grown under rainfed conditions support the livelihoods of low-income farmers, it is important to highlight the vulnerability of rainfed areas to climate change in order to anticipate potential risks to food security. In this paper, we focus on India, where ~ 50% of rice is grown under rainfed conditions, and we employ statistical models (climate envelope models (CEMs) and boosted regression trees (BRTs)) to map changes in climate suitability for rainfed rice cultivation at a regional level (~ 18 × 18 km cell resolution) under projected future (2050) climate change (IPCC RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, using three GCMs: BCC-CSM1.1, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and HadGEM2-ES). We quantify the occurrence of rice (whether or not rainfed rice is commonly grown, using CEMs) and rice extent (area under cultivation, using BRTs) during the summer monsoon in relation to four climate variables that affect rice growth and yield namely ratio of precipitation to evapotranspiration ( PER ), maximum and minimum temperatures ( T max and T min ), and total rainfall during harvesting. Our models described the occurrence and extent of rice very well (CEMs for occurrence, ensemble AUC = 0.92; BRTs for extent, Pearson's r = 0.87). PER was the most important predictor of rainfed rice occurrence, and it was positively related to rainfed rice area, but all four climate variables were important for determining the extent of rice cultivation. Our models project that 15%-40% of current rainfed rice growing areas will be at risk (i.e. decline in climate suitability or become completely unsuitable). However, our models project considerable variation across India in the impact of future climate change: eastern and northern India are the locations most at risk, but parts of central and western India may benefit from increased precipitation. Hence our CEM and BRT models agree on the locations most at risk, but there is less consensus about the degree of risk at these locations. Our results help to identify locations where livelihoods of low-income farmers and regional food security may be threatened in the next few decades by climate changes. The use of more drought-resilient rice varieties and better irrigation infrastructure in these regions may help to reduce these impacts and reduce the vulnerability of farmers dependent on rainfed cropping.

Near term climate projections for invasive species distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

2009-01-01

Climate change and invasive species pose important conservation issues separately, and should be examined together. We used existing long term climate datasets for the US to project potential climate change into the future at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than the climate change scenarios generally available. These fine scale projections, along with new species distribution modeling techniques to forecast the potential extent of invasive species, can provide useful information to aide conservation and invasive species management efforts. We created habitat suitability maps for Pueraria montana (kudzu) under current climatic conditions and potential average conditions up to 30 years in the future. We examined how the potential distribution of this species will be affected by changing climate, and the management implications associated with these changes. Our models indicated that P. montana may increase its distribution particularly in the Northeast with climate change and may decrease in other areas. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

2016-01-01

Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

Current and future effects of global change on a hotspot's freshwater diversity.

PubMed

Gallardo, Belinda; Bogan, Arthur E; Harun, Sahana; Jainih, Leonardo; Lopes-Lima, Manuel; Pizarro, Manuel; Rahim, Khairul Adha; Sousa, Ronaldo; Virdis, Salvatore G P; Zieritz, Alexandra

2018-04-19

Deforestation, climate change and invasive species constitute three global threats to biodiversity that act synergistically. However, drivers and rates of loss of freshwater biodiversity now and in the future are poorly understood. Here we focus on the potential impacts of global change on freshwater mussels (Order Unionida) in Sundaland (SE Asia), a vulnerable group facing global declines and recognized indicators of overall freshwater biodiversity. We used an ensemble of distribution models to identify habitats potentially suitable for freshwater mussels and their change under a range of climate, deforestation and invasion scenarios. Our data and models revealed that, at present, Sundaland features 47 and 32 Mha of habitat that can be considered environmentally suitable for native and invasive freshwater mussels, respectively. We anticipate that by 2050, the area suitable for palm oil cultivation may expand between 8 and 44 Mha, representing an annual increase of 2-11%. This is expected to result in a 20% decrease in suitable habitat for native mussels, a drop that reaches 30% by 2050 when considering concomitant climate change. In contrast, the habitat potentially suitable for invasive mussels may increase by 44-56% under 2050 future scenarios. Consequently, native mussels may compete for habitat, food resources and fish hosts with invasive mussels across approximately 60% of their suitable range. Our projections can be used to guide future expeditions to monitor the conservation status of freshwater biodiversity, and potentially reveal populations of endemic species on the brink of extinction. Future conservation measures-most importantly the designation of nature reserves-should take into account trends in freshwater biodiversity generally, and particularly species such as freshwater mussels, vital to safeguard fundamental ecosystem services. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Apparent climate-mediated loss and fragmentation of core habitat of the American pika in the Northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA

DOE PAGES

Stewart, Joseph A. E.; Wright, David H.; Heckman, Katherine A.

2017-08-30

Contemporary climate change has been widely documented as the apparent cause of range contraction at the edge of many species distributions but documentation of climate change as a cause of extirpation and fragmentation of the interior of a species’ core habitat has been lacking. Here in this paper, we report the extirpation of the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a temperature-sensitive small mammal, from a 165-km 2 area located within its core habitat in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains. While sites surrounding the area still maintain pikas, radiocarbon analyses of pika fecal pellets recovered within this area indicate that former patch occupancymore » ranges from before 1955, the beginning of the atmospheric spike in radiocarbon associated with above ground atomic bomb testing, to c. 1991. Despite an abundance of suitable rocky habitat climate warming appears to have precipitated their demise. Weather station data reveal a 1.9°C rise in local temperature and a significant decline in snowpack over the period of record, 1910–2015, pushing pika habitat into increasingly tenuous climate conditions during the period of extirpation. This is among the first accounts of an apparently climate-mediated, modern extirpation of a species from an interior portion of its geographic distribution, resulting in habitat fragmentation, and is the largest area yet reported for a modern-era pika extirpation. Our finding provides empirical support to model projections, indicating that even core areas of species habitat are vulnerable to climate change within a timeframe of decades.« less

Apparent climate-mediated loss and fragmentation of core habitat of the American pika in the Northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA

PubMed Central

Wright, David H.; Heckman, Katherine A.

2017-01-01

Contemporary climate change has been widely documented as the apparent cause of range contraction at the edge of many species distributions but documentation of climate change as a cause of extirpation and fragmentation of the interior of a species’ core habitat has been lacking. Here, we report the extirpation of the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a temperature-sensitive small mammal, from a 165-km2 area located within its core habitat in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains. While sites surrounding the area still maintain pikas, radiocarbon analyses of pika fecal pellets recovered within this area indicate that former patch occupancy ranges from before 1955, the beginning of the atmospheric spike in radiocarbon associated with above ground atomic bomb testing, to c. 1991. Despite an abundance of suitable rocky habitat climate warming appears to have precipitated their demise. Weather station data reveal a 1.9°C rise in local temperature and a significant decline in snowpack over the period of record, 1910–2015, pushing pika habitat into increasingly tenuous climate conditions during the period of extirpation. This is among the first accounts of an apparently climate-mediated, modern extirpation of a species from an interior portion of its geographic distribution, resulting in habitat fragmentation, and is the largest area yet reported for a modern-era pika extirpation. Our finding provides empirical support to model projections, indicating that even core areas of species habitat are vulnerable to climate change within a timeframe of decades. PMID:28854268

Apparent climate-mediated loss and fragmentation of core habitat of the American pika in the Northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stewart, Joseph A. E.; Wright, David H.; Heckman, Katherine A.

Contemporary climate change has been widely documented as the apparent cause of range contraction at the edge of many species distributions but documentation of climate change as a cause of extirpation and fragmentation of the interior of a species’ core habitat has been lacking. Here in this paper, we report the extirpation of the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a temperature-sensitive small mammal, from a 165-km 2 area located within its core habitat in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains. While sites surrounding the area still maintain pikas, radiocarbon analyses of pika fecal pellets recovered within this area indicate that former patch occupancymore » ranges from before 1955, the beginning of the atmospheric spike in radiocarbon associated with above ground atomic bomb testing, to c. 1991. Despite an abundance of suitable rocky habitat climate warming appears to have precipitated their demise. Weather station data reveal a 1.9°C rise in local temperature and a significant decline in snowpack over the period of record, 1910–2015, pushing pika habitat into increasingly tenuous climate conditions during the period of extirpation. This is among the first accounts of an apparently climate-mediated, modern extirpation of a species from an interior portion of its geographic distribution, resulting in habitat fragmentation, and is the largest area yet reported for a modern-era pika extirpation. Our finding provides empirical support to model projections, indicating that even core areas of species habitat are vulnerable to climate change within a timeframe of decades.« less

Threats to North American forests from southern pine beetle with warming winters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesk, Corey; Coffel, Ethan; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Dodds, Kevin; Horton, Radley

2017-10-01

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to ease range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York and Connecticut in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modelling approach and current-generation general circulation model output under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Results show that by the middle of the twenty-first century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption of local ecosystem services, shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.

Threats to North American Forests from Southern Pine Beetle with Warming Winters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lesk, Corey; Coffel, Ethan; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Dodds, Kevin; Horton, Radley M.

2016-01-01

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to lift range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present the first projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption oflocal ecosystem services, dramatic shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.

Spatial diffusion of influenza outbreak-related climate factors in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand.

PubMed

Nakapan, Supachai; Tripathi, Nitin Kumar; Tipdecho, Taravudh; Souris, Marc

2012-10-24

Influenza is one of the most important leading causes of respiratory illness in the countries located in the tropical areas of South East Asia and Thailand. In this study the climate factors associated with influenza incidence in Chiang Mai Province, Northern Thailand, were investigated. Identification of factors responsible for influenza outbreaks and the mapping of potential risk areas in Chiang Mai are long overdue. This work examines the association between yearly climate patterns between 2001 and 2008 and influenza outbreaks in the Chiang Mai Province. The climatic factors included the amount of rainfall, percent of rainy days, relative humidity, maximum, minimum temperatures and temperature difference. The study develops a statistical analysis to quantitatively assess the relationship between climate and influenza outbreaks and then evaluate its suitability for predicting influenza outbreaks. A multiple linear regression technique was used to fit the statistical model. The Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were used in mapping the spatial diffusion of influenza risk zones. The results show that there is a significance correlation between influenza outbreaks and climate factors for the majority of the studied area. A statistical analysis was conducted to assess the validity of the model comparing model outputs and actual outbreaks.

Data for giant constrictors - Biological management profiles and an establishment risk assessment for nine large species of pythons, anacondas, and the boa constrictor

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, C.S.; Rodda, G.H.; Reed, R.N.

2011-01-01

Giant Constrictors' Climate Space The giant constrictors' climate space data set represents the information needed to recreate the climate space and climate matching analyses in Reed and Rodda (2009). A detailed methodology and results are included in that report. The data include locations for nine species of large constrictors including Python molurus, Broghammerus reticulatus, P. sebae, P. natalensis, Boa constrictor, Eunectes notaeus, E. deschauenseei, E. beniensis, and E. murinus. The locations are from published sources. Climate data are included for monthly precipitation and average monthly temperature along with the species locations. The individual spreadsheets of location data match the figures in the Reed and Rodda (2009) report, illustrating areas of the mainland United States that match the climate envelope of the native range. The precipitation and temperature data at each location were used to determine the climate space for each species. Graphs of climate space formed the basis for the algorithms in the data set, and more details can be found in Reed and Rodda (2009). These algorithms were used in ArcGIS to generate maps of areas in the United States that matched the climate space of locations of the snakes in their native range. We discovered a rounding error in ArcGIS in the implementation of the algorithms, which has been corrected here. Therefore the shapefiles are slightly different than those appearing in the risk assessment figures illustrating areas of the United States that match the climate envelope of the species in their native ranges. However, the suitable localities are not different at the scale of intended use for these maps, although there are more noticeable differences between areas classified as 'too cold' and 'too hot'.

Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change.

PubMed

Zhang, Keliang; Yao, Linjun; Meng, Jiasong; Tao, Jun

2018-09-01

Paeonia (Paeoniaceae), an economically important plant genus, includes many popular ornamentals and medicinal plant species used in traditional Chinese medicine. Little is known about the properties of the habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping the suitability. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future climate scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. delavayi and P. rockii by Maxent, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results showed that the moderate and high suitable areas for P. delavayi and P. rockii encompassed ca. 4.46×10 5 km 2 and 1.89×10 5 km 2 , respectively. Temperature seasonality and isothermality were identified as the most critical factors shaping P. delavayi distribution, and UVB-4 and annual precipitation were identified as the most critical for shaping P. rockii distribution. Under the scenario with a low concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6), the range of both species increased as global warming intensified; however, under the scenario with higher concentrations of emissions (RCP8.5), the suitable habitat range of P. delavayi decreased while P. rockii increased. Overall, our prediction showed that a shift in distribution of suitable habitat to higher elevations would gradually become more significant. The information gained from this study should provide a useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for these species. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Climate and weather influences on spatial temporal patterns of mountain pine beetle populations in Washington and Oregon.

PubMed

Preisler, Haiganoush K; Hicke, Jeffrey A; Ager, Alan A; Hayes, Jane L

2012-11-01

Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetle in North America have drawn the attention of scientists, forest managers, and the public. There is strong evidence that climate change has contributed to the extent and severity of recent outbreaks. Scientists are interested in quantifying relationships between bark beetle population dynamics and trends in climate. Process models that simulate climate suitability for mountain pine beetle outbreaks have advanced our understanding of beetle population dynamics; however, there are few studies that have assessed their accuracy across multiple outbreaks or at larger spatial scales. This study used the observed number of trees killed by mountain pine beetles per square kilometer in Oregon and Washington, USA, over the past three decades to quantify and assess the influence of climate and weather variables on beetle activity over longer time periods and larger scales than previously studied. Influences of temperature and precipitation in addition to process model output variables were assessed at annual and climatological time scales. The statistical analysis showed that new attacks are more likely to occur at locations with climatological mean August temperatures >15 degrees C. After controlling for beetle pressure, the variables with the largest effect on the odds of an outbreak exceeding a certain size were minimum winter temperature (positive relationship) and drought conditions in current and previous years. Precipitation levels in the year prior to the outbreak had a positive effect, possibly an indication of the influence of this driver on brood size. Two-year cumulative precipitation had a negative effect, a possible indication of the influence of drought on tree stress. Among the process model variables, cold tolerance was the strongest indicator of an outbreak increasing to epidemic size. A weather suitability index developed from the regression analysis indicated a 2.5x increase in the odds of outbreak at locations with highly suitable weather vs. locations with low suitability. The models were useful for estimating expected amounts of damage (total area with outbreaks) and for quantifying the contribution of climate to total damage. Overall, the results confirm the importance of climate and weather on the spatial expansion of bark beetle outbreaks over time.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under Climate Change in China

PubMed Central

Li, Lin; Zhao, Yao; Pei, Lin; Zhao, Jiancheng

2016-01-01

Global warming has created opportunities and challenges for the survival and development of species. Determining how climate change may impact multiple ecosystem levels and lead to various species adaptations is necessary for both biodiversity conservation and sustainable biological resource utilization. In this study, we employed Maxent to predict changes in the habitat range and altitude of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under current and future climate scenarios in China. Four representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) were modeled for two time periods (2050 and 2070). The model inputs included 732 presence points and nine sets of environmental variables under the current conditions and the four RCPs in 2050 and 2070. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate model performance. All of the AUCs were greater than 0.80, thereby placing these models in the “very good” category. Using a jackknife analysis, the precipitation in the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature, and altitude were found to be the top three variables that affect the range of P. tenuifolia. Additionally, we found that the predicted highly suitable habitat was in reasonable agreement with its actual distribution. Furthermore, the highly suitable habitat area was slowly reduced over time. PMID:27661983

Using High Resolution Remotely Sensed Data to Predict Territory Occupancy and Mircrorefugia for a Habitat Specialist, the American Pika (Ochotona princeps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beers, A.; Ray, C.

2015-12-01

Climate change is likely to affect mountainous areas unevenly due to the complex interactions between topography, vegetation, and the accumulation of snow and ice. This heterogeneity will complicate relationships between species presence and large-scale drivers such as precipitation and make predicting habitat extent and connectivity much more difficult. We studied the potential for fine-scale variation in climate and habitat use throughout the year in the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a talus specialist of mountainous western North America known for strong microhabitat affiliation. Not all areas of talus are likely to be equally hospitable, which may reduce connectivity more than predicted by large-scale occupancy drivers. We used high resolution remotely sensed data to create metrics of the terrain and land cover in the Niwot Ridge (NWT) LTER site in Colorado. We hypothesized that pikas preferentially use heterogeneous terrain, as it might foster greater snow accumulation, and used radio telemetry to test this with radio-collared pikas. Pikas use heterogeneous terrain during snow covered periods and less heterogeneous area during the summer. This suggests that not all areas of talus habitat are equally suitable as shelter from extreme conditions but that pikas need more than just shelter from winter cold. With those results we created a predictive map using the same habitat metrics to model the extent of suitable habitat across the NWT area. These strong effects of terrain on pika habitat use and territory occupancy show the great utility that high resolution remotely sensed data can have in ecological applications. With increasing effects of climate change in mountainous regions, this modeling approach is crucial for quantifying habitat connectivity at both small and large scales and to identify potential refugia for threatened or isolated species.

Changes and Relationships of Climatic and Hydrological Droughts in the Jialing River Basin, China.

PubMed

Zeng, Xiaofan; Zhao, Na; Sun, Huaiwei; Ye, Lei; Zhai, Jianqing

2015-01-01

The comprehensive assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts in terms of their temporal and spatial evolutions is very important for water resources management and social development in the basin scale. To study the spatial and temporal changes of climatic and hydrological droughts and the relationships between them, the SPEI and SDI are adopted to assess the changes and the correlations of climatic and hydrological droughts by selecting the Jialing River basin, China as the research area. The SPEI and SDI at different time scales are assessed both at the entire Jialing River basin and at the regional levels of the three sub basins. The results show that the SPEI and SDI are very suitable for assessing the changes and relationships of climatic and hydrological droughts in large basins. Based on the assessment, for the Jialing River basin, climatic and hydrological droughts have the increasing tendency during recent several decades, and the increasing trend of climatic droughts is significant or extremely significant in the western and northern basin, while hydrological drought has a less significant increasing trend. Additionally, climatic and hydrological droughts tend to increase in the next few years. The results also show that on short time scales, climatic droughts have one or two months lag impact on hydrological droughts in the north-west area of the basin, and have one month lag impact in south-east area of the basin. The assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts based on the SPEI and SDI could be very useful for water resources management and climate change adaptation at large basin scale.

Changes and Relationships of Climatic and Hydrological Droughts in the Jialing River Basin, China

PubMed Central

Zeng, Xiaofan; Zhao, Na; Sun, Huaiwei; Ye, Lei; Zhai, Jianqing

2015-01-01

The comprehensive assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts in terms of their temporal and spatial evolutions is very important for water resources management and social development in the basin scale. To study the spatial and temporal changes of climatic and hydrological droughts and the relationships between them, the SPEI and SDI are adopted to assess the changes and the correlations of climatic and hydrological droughts by selecting the Jialing River basin, China as the research area. The SPEI and SDI at different time scales are assessed both at the entire Jialing River basin and at the regional levels of the three sub basins. The results show that the SPEI and SDI are very suitable for assessing the changes and relationships of climatic and hydrological droughts in large basins. Based on the assessment, for the Jialing River basin, climatic and hydrological droughts have the increasing tendency during recent several decades, and the increasing trend of climatic droughts is significant or extremely significant in the western and northern basin, while hydrological drought has a less significant increasing trend. Additionally, climatic and hydrological droughts tend to increase in the next few years. The results also show that on short time scales, climatic droughts have one or two months lag impact on hydrological droughts in the north-west area of the basin, and have one month lag impact in south-east area of the basin. The assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts based on the SPEI and SDI could be very useful for water resources management and climate change adaptation at large basin scale. PMID:26544070

Climate influences on whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

PubMed

Buotte, Polly C; Hicke, Jeffrey A; Preisler, Haiganoush K; Abatzoglou, John T; Raffa, Kenneth F; Logan, Jesse A

2016-12-01

Extensive mortality of whitebark pine, beginning in the early to mid-2000s, occurred in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) of the western USA, primarily from mountain pine beetle but also from other threats such as white pine blister rust. The climatic drivers of this recent mortality and the potential for future whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle are not well understood, yet are important considerations in whether to list whitebark pine as a threatened or endangered species. We sought to increase the understanding of climate influences on mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests, which are less well understood than in lodgepole pine, by quantifying climate-beetle relationships, analyzing climate influences during the recent outbreak, and estimating the suitability of future climate for beetle outbreaks. We developed a statistical model of the probability of whitebark pine mortality in the GYE that included temperature effects on beetle development and survival, precipitation effects on host tree condition, beetle population size, and stand characteristics. Estimated probability of whitebark pine mortality increased with higher winter minimum temperature, indicating greater beetle winter survival; higher fall temperature, indicating synchronous beetle emergence; lower two-year summer precipitation, indicating increased potential for host tree stress; increasing beetle populations; stand age; and increasing percent composition of whitebark pine within a stand. The recent outbreak occurred during a period of higher-than-normal regional winter temperatures, suitable fall temperatures, and low summer precipitation. In contrast to lodgepole pine systems, area with mortality was linked to precipitation variability even at high beetle populations. Projections from climate models indicate future climate conditions will likely provide favorable conditions for beetle outbreaks within nearly all current whitebark pine habitat in the GYE by the middle of this century. Therefore, when surviving and regenerating trees reach ages suitable for beetle attack, there is strong potential for continued whitebark pine mortality due to mountain pine beetle. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Continental divide: Predicting climate-mediated fragmentation and biodiversity loss in the boreal forest

PubMed Central

Murray, Dennis L.; Peers, Michael J. L.; Majchrzak, Yasmine N.; Wehtje, Morgan; Ferreira, Catarina; Pickles, Rob S. A.; Row, Jeffrey R.; Thornton, Daniel H.

2017-01-01

Climate change threatens natural landscapes through shifting distribution and abundance of species and attendant change in the structure and function of ecosystems. However, it remains unclear how climate-mediated variation in species’ environmental niche space may lead to large-scale fragmentation of species distributions, altered meta-population dynamics and gene flow, and disrupted ecosystem integrity. Such change may be especially relevant when species distributions are restricted either spatially or to a narrow environmental niche, or when environments are rapidly changing. Here, we use range-wide environmental niche models to posit that climate-mediated range fragmentation aggravates the direct effects of climate change on species in the boreal forest of North America. We show that climate change will directly alter environmental niche suitability for boreal-obligate species of trees, birds and mammals (n = 12), with most species ranges becoming smaller and shifting northward through time. Importantly, species distributions will become increasingly fragmented, as characterized by smaller mean size and greater isolation of environmentally-suitable landscape patches. This loss is especially pronounced along the Ontario-Québec border, where the boreal forest is narrowest and roughly 78% of suitable niche space could disappear by 2080. Despite the diversity of taxa surveyed, patterns of range fragmentation are remarkably consistent, with our models predicting that spruce grouse (Dendragapus canadensis), boreal chickadee (Poecile hudsonicus), moose (Alces americanus) and caribou (Rangifer tarandus) could have entirely disjunct east-west population segments in North America. These findings reveal potentially dire consequences of climate change on population continuity and species diversity in the boreal forest, highlighting the need to better understand: 1) extent and primary drivers of anticipated climate-mediated range loss and fragmentation; 2) diversity of species to be affected by such change; 3) potential for rapid adaptation in the most strongly-affected areas; and 4) potential for invasion by replacement species. PMID:28505173

Continental divide: Predicting climate-mediated fragmentation and biodiversity loss in the boreal forest.

PubMed

Murray, Dennis L; Peers, Michael J L; Majchrzak, Yasmine N; Wehtje, Morgan; Ferreira, Catarina; Pickles, Rob S A; Row, Jeffrey R; Thornton, Daniel H

2017-01-01

Climate change threatens natural landscapes through shifting distribution and abundance of species and attendant change in the structure and function of ecosystems. However, it remains unclear how climate-mediated variation in species' environmental niche space may lead to large-scale fragmentation of species distributions, altered meta-population dynamics and gene flow, and disrupted ecosystem integrity. Such change may be especially relevant when species distributions are restricted either spatially or to a narrow environmental niche, or when environments are rapidly changing. Here, we use range-wide environmental niche models to posit that climate-mediated range fragmentation aggravates the direct effects of climate change on species in the boreal forest of North America. We show that climate change will directly alter environmental niche suitability for boreal-obligate species of trees, birds and mammals (n = 12), with most species ranges becoming smaller and shifting northward through time. Importantly, species distributions will become increasingly fragmented, as characterized by smaller mean size and greater isolation of environmentally-suitable landscape patches. This loss is especially pronounced along the Ontario-Québec border, where the boreal forest is narrowest and roughly 78% of suitable niche space could disappear by 2080. Despite the diversity of taxa surveyed, patterns of range fragmentation are remarkably consistent, with our models predicting that spruce grouse (Dendragapus canadensis), boreal chickadee (Poecile hudsonicus), moose (Alces americanus) and caribou (Rangifer tarandus) could have entirely disjunct east-west population segments in North America. These findings reveal potentially dire consequences of climate change on population continuity and species diversity in the boreal forest, highlighting the need to better understand: 1) extent and primary drivers of anticipated climate-mediated range loss and fragmentation; 2) diversity of species to be affected by such change; 3) potential for rapid adaptation in the most strongly-affected areas; and 4) potential for invasion by replacement species.

Modeling the effects of anthropogenic habitat change on savanna snake invasions into African rainforest.

PubMed

Freedman, Adam H; Buermann, Wolfgang; Lebreton, Matthew; Chirio, Laurent; Smith, Thomas B

2009-02-01

We used a species-distribution modeling approach, ground-based climate data sets, and newly available remote-sensing data on vegetation from the MODIS and Quick Scatterometer sensors to investigate the combined effects of human-caused habitat alterations and climate on potential invasions of rainforest by 3 savanna snake species in Cameroon, Central Africa: the night adder (Causus maculatus), olympic lined snake (Dromophis lineatus), and African house snake (Lamprophis fuliginosus). Models with contemporary climate variables and localities from native savanna habitats showed that the current climate in undisturbed rainforest was unsuitable for any of the snake species due to high precipitation. Limited availability of thermally suitable nest sites and mismatches between important life-history events and prey availability are a likely explanation for the predicted exclusion from undisturbed rainforest. Models with only MODIS-derived vegetation variables and savanna localities predicted invasion in disturbed areas within the rainforest zone, which suggests that human removal of forest cover creates suitable microhabitats that facilitate invasions into rainforest. Models with a combination of contemporary climate, MODIS- and Quick Scatterometer-derived vegetation variables, and forest and savanna localities predicted extensive invasion into rainforest caused by rainforest loss. In contrast, a projection of the present-day species-climate envelope on future climate suggested a reduction in invasion potential within the rainforest zone as a consequence of predicted increases in precipitation. These results emphasize that the combined responses of deforestation and climate change will likely be complex in tropical rainforest systems.

Spatial distribution of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in South American caecilians.

PubMed

Lambertini, Carolina; Becker, C Guilherme; Bardier, Cecilia; da Silva Leite, Domingos; Toledo, Luís Felipe

2017-04-20

The amphibian-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is linked to population declines in anurans and salamanders globally. To date, however, few studies have attempted to screen Bd in live caecilians; Bd-positive caecilians have only been reported in Africa and French Guiana. Here, we performed a retrospective survey of museum preserved specimens to (1) describe spatial patterns of Bd infection in Gymnophiona across South America and (2) test whether areas of low climatic suitability for Bd in anurans predict Bd spatial epidemiology in caecilians. We used quantitative PCR to detect Bd in preserved caecilians collected over a 109 yr period, and performed autologistic regressions to test the effect of bioclimatic metrics of temperature and precipitation, vegetation density, and elevation on the likelihood of Bd occurrence. We detected an overall Bd prevalence of 12.4%, with positive samples spanning the Uruguayan savanna, Brazil's Atlantic Forest, and the Amazon basin. Our autologistic models detected a strong effect of macroclimate, a weaker effect of vegetation density, and no effect of elevation on the likelihood of Bd occurrence. Although most of our Bd-positive records overlapped with reported areas of high climatic suitability for the fungus in the Neotropics, many of our new Bd-positive samples extend far into areas of poor suitability for Bd in anurans. Our results highlight an important gap in the study of amphibian chytridiomycosis: the potential negative impact of Bd on Neotropical caecilians and the hypothetical role of caecilians as Bd reservoirs.

Climatic Factors Driving Invasion of the Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into New Areas of Trentino, Northern Italy

PubMed Central

Castellani, Cristina; Arnoldi, Daniele; Rizzoli, Annapaola

2011-01-01

Background The tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases transmitted by this species in Europe. Therefore, predicting suitable areas of future establishment and spread is essential for planning early prevention and control strategies. Methodology/Principal Findings To identify the areas currently most suitable for the occurrence of the tiger mosquito in the Province of Trento, we combined field entomological observations with analyses of satellite temperature data (MODIS Land Surface Temperature: LST) and human population data. We determine threshold conditions for the survival of overwintering eggs and for adult survival using both January mean temperatures and annual mean temperatures. We show that the 0°C LST threshold for January mean temperatures and the 11°C threshold for annual mean temperatures provide the best predictors for identifying the areas that could potentially support populations of this mosquito. In fact, human population density and distance to human settlements appear to be less important variables affecting mosquito distribution in this area. Finally, we evaluated the future establishment and spread of this species in relation to predicted climate warming by considering the A2 scenario for 2050 statistically downscaled at regional level in which winter and annual temperatures increase by 1.5 and 1°C, respectively. Conclusions/Significance MODIS satellite LST data are useful for accurately predicting potential areas of tiger mosquito distribution and for revealing the range limits of this species in mountainous areas, predictions which could be extended to an European scale. We show that the observed trend of increasing temperatures due to climate change could facilitate further invasion of Ae. albopictus into new areas. PMID:21525991

Invasive termites in a changing climate: A global perspective.

PubMed

Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Bertelsmeier, Cleo

2017-02-01

Termites are ubiquitous insects in tropical, subtropical, and warm temperate regions and play an important role in ecosystems. Several termite species are also significant economic pests, mainly in urban areas where they attack human-made structures, but also in natural forest habitats. Worldwide, approximately 28 termite species are considered invasive and have spread beyond their native ranges, often with significant economic consequences. We used predictive climate modeling to provide the first global risk assessment for 13 of the world's most invasive termites. We modeled the future distribution of 13 of the most serious invasive termite species, using two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, and two projection years (2050 and 2070). Our results show that all but one termite species are expected to significantly increase in their global distribution, irrespective of the climatic scenario and year. The range shifts by species (shift vectors) revealed a complex pattern of distributional changes across latitudes rather than simple poleward expansion. Mapping of potential invasion hotspots in 2050 under the RCP 4.5 scenario revealed that the most suitable areas are located in the tropics. Substantial parts of all continents had suitable environmental conditions for more than four species simultaneously. Mapping of changes in the number of species revealed that areas that lose many species (e.g., parts of South America) are those that were previously very species-rich, contrary to regions such as Europe that were overall not among the most important invasion hotspots, but that showed a great increase in the number of potential invaders. The substantial economic and ecological damage caused by invasive termites is likely to increase in response to climate change, increased urbanization, and accelerating economic globalization, acting singly or interactively.

Regional assessment of the hydropower potential of rivers in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kling, Harald; Stanzel, Philipp; Fuchs, Martin

2016-04-01

The 15 countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) face a constant shortage of energy supply, which limits sustained economic growth. Currently there are about 50 operational hydropower plants and about 40 more are under construction or refurbishment. The potential for future hydropower development - especially for small-scale plants in rural areas - is assumed to be large, but exact data are missing. This study supports the energy initiatives of the "ECOWAS Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency" (ECREEE) by assessing the hydropower potential of all rivers in West Africa. For more than 500,000 river reaches the hydropower potential was computed from channel slope and mean annual discharge. In large areas there is a lack of discharge observations. Therefore, an annual water balance model was used to simulate discharge. The model domain covers 5 Mio km², including e.g. the Niger, Volta, and Senegal River basins. The model was calibrated with observed data of 410 gauges, using precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data as inputs. Historic variations of observed annual discharge between 1950 and 2010 are simulated well by the model. As hydropower plants are investments with a lifetime of several decades we also assessed possible changes in future discharge due to climate change. To this end the water balance model was driven with bias-corrected climate projections of 15 Regional Climate Models for two emission scenarios of the CORDEX-Africa ensemble. The simulation results for the river network were up-scaled to sub-areas and national summaries. This information gives a regional quantification of the hydropower potential, expected climate change impacts, as well as a regional classification for general suitability (or non-suitability) of hydropower plant size - from small-scale to large projects.

Where to Dig for Fossils: Combining Climate-Envelope, Taphonomy and Discovery Models

PubMed Central

Block, Sebastián; Saltré, Frédérik; Rodríguez-Rey, Marta; Fordham, Damien A.; Unkel, Ingmar; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.

2016-01-01

Fossils represent invaluable data to reconstruct the past history of life, yet fossil-rich sites are often rare and difficult to find. The traditional fossil-hunting approach focuses on small areas and has not yet taken advantage of modelling techniques commonly used in ecology to account for an organism’s past distributions. We propose a new method to assist finding fossils at continental scales based on modelling the past distribution of species, the geological suitability of fossil preservation and the likelihood of fossil discovery in the field, and apply it to several genera of Australian megafauna that went extinct in the Late Quaternary. Our models predicted higher fossil potentials for independent sites than for randomly selected locations (mean Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic = 0.66). We demonstrate the utility of accounting for the distribution history of fossil taxa when trying to find the most suitable areas to look for fossils. For some genera, the probability of finding fossils based on simple climate-envelope models was higher than the probability based on models incorporating current conditions associated with fossil preservation and discovery as predictors. However, combining the outputs from climate-envelope, preservation, and discovery models resulted in the most accurate predictions of potential fossil sites at a continental scale. We proposed potential areas to discover new fossils of Diprotodon, Zygomaturus, Protemnodon, Thylacoleo, and Genyornis, and provide guidelines on how to apply our approach to assist fossil hunting in other continents and geological settings. PMID:27027874

Where to Dig for Fossils: Combining Climate-Envelope, Taphonomy and Discovery Models.

PubMed

Block, Sebastián; Saltré, Frédérik; Rodríguez-Rey, Marta; Fordham, Damien A; Unkel, Ingmar; Bradshaw, Corey J A

2016-01-01

Fossils represent invaluable data to reconstruct the past history of life, yet fossil-rich sites are often rare and difficult to find. The traditional fossil-hunting approach focuses on small areas and has not yet taken advantage of modelling techniques commonly used in ecology to account for an organism's past distributions. We propose a new method to assist finding fossils at continental scales based on modelling the past distribution of species, the geological suitability of fossil preservation and the likelihood of fossil discovery in the field, and apply it to several genera of Australian megafauna that went extinct in the Late Quaternary. Our models predicted higher fossil potentials for independent sites than for randomly selected locations (mean Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic = 0.66). We demonstrate the utility of accounting for the distribution history of fossil taxa when trying to find the most suitable areas to look for fossils. For some genera, the probability of finding fossils based on simple climate-envelope models was higher than the probability based on models incorporating current conditions associated with fossil preservation and discovery as predictors. However, combining the outputs from climate-envelope, preservation, and discovery models resulted in the most accurate predictions of potential fossil sites at a continental scale. We proposed potential areas to discover new fossils of Diprotodon, Zygomaturus, Protemnodon, Thylacoleo, and Genyornis, and provide guidelines on how to apply our approach to assist fossil hunting in other continents and geological settings.

Environmental suitability for Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) whitmani (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) and the occurrence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil.

PubMed

da Costa, Simone Miranda; Cordeiro, José Luís Passos; Rangel, Elizabeth Ferreira

2018-03-07

Leishmaniasis represents an important public health problem in Brazil. The continuous process of urbanization and expansion of human activities in forest areas impacts natural habitats, modifying the ecology of some species of Leishmania, as well as its vectors and reservoirs and, consequently, changes the epidemiological pattern that contributes to the expansion of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil. Here, we discuss Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) whitmani, the main vector of ACL, transmitting two dermotropic Leishmania species including Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis and Leishmania (V.) shawi. We used the maximum entropy niche modelling approach (MaxEnt) to evaluate the environmental suitability of L. (N.) whitmani and the transmission of ACL in Brazil, in addition to designing models for a future scenario of climate change. MaxEnt was used under the "auto-features" mode and the default settings, with 100-fold repetition (bootstrap). The logistic output was used with higher values in the habitat suitability map, representing more favourable conditions for the occurrence of L. (N.) whitmani and human cases of ACL. Two models were developed: the Lutzomyia (N.) whitmani model (LWM) and the American cutaneous leishmaniasis model (ACLM). LWM identified the species "preferential habitat" included regions with moderate annual precipitation (AP) between 1000-1600 mm, intermediate vegetation density (NDVI) values, mean temperature of the coldest quarter (MTCQ), between 15-21 °C, and annual mean temperature (AMT), between 19-24 °C. ACLM indicates that ACL is strongly associated with areas of intermediate density vegetation, areas with AP between 800-1200 mm, MTCQ above 16 °C and AMT below 23 °C. The models generated for L. (N.) whitmani and ACL indicated a satisfactory predictive capacity. Future projections of LWM indicate an expansion of climatic suitability for L. (N.) whitmani for the northern and southern regions of Brazil. Future projections of ACL indicate the ongoing process of disease expansion in the face of the predicted climatic changes and reinforce the broad geographical expanse of this disease in Brazil. The models were able to identify that a continuous process of environmental degradation favours the establishment of L. (N.) whitmani and the occurrence of ACL by a strong association of the vector(s) and ACL to areas of intermediate vegetation cover density.

Climatic factors influencing triatomine occurrence in Central-West Brazil

PubMed Central

Pereira, Joyce Mendes; de Almeida, Paulo Silva; de Sousa, Adair Vieira; de Paula, Aécio Moraes; Machado, Ricardo Bomfim; Gurgel-Gonçalves, Rodrigo

2013-01-01

We estimated the geographic distributions of triatomine species in Central-West Region of Brazil (CW) and analysed the climatic factors influencing their occurrence. A total of 3,396 records of 27 triatomine species were analysed. Using the maximum entropy method, ecological niche models were produced for eight species occurring in at least 20 municipalities based on 13 climatic variables and elevation. Triatoma sordida and Rhodnius neglectus were the species with the broadest geographic distributions in CW Brazil. The Cerrado areas in the state of Goiás were found to be more suitable for the occurrence of synanthropic triatomines than the Amazon forest areas in the northern part of the state of Mato Grosso. The variable that best explains the evaluated models is temperature seasonality. The results indicate that almost the entire region presents climatic conditions that are appropriate for at least one triatomine species. Therefore, it is recommended that entomological surveillance be reinforced in CW Brazil. PMID:23778666

[Predicting the impact of global warming on the geographical distribution pattern of Quercus variabilis in China].

PubMed

Li, Yao; Zhang, Xing-wang; Fang, Yan-ming

2014-12-01

The geographical distribution of Quercus variabilis in China with its climate characteristics was analyzed based on DIVA-GIS which was also used to estimate the response of future potential distribution to global warming by Bioclim and Domain models. Analysis results showed the geographical distribution of Q. variabilis could be divided into 7 subregions: Henduan Mountains, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, North China, East China, Liaodong-Shandong Peninsula, Taiwan Island, and Qinling-Daba Mountains. These subregions are across 7 temperature zones, 2 moisture regions and 17 climatic subregions, including 8 climate types. The modern abundance center of Q. variabilis is Qinling, Daba and Funiu mountains. The condition of mean annual temperature 7.5-19.8 degrees C annual precipitation 471-1511 mm, is suitable for Q. variabilis. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC values), of Domain and Boiclim models were 0.910, 0.779; the former predicted that the potential regions of high suitability for Q. variabilis are Qinling, Daba, Funiu, Tongbai, and Dabie mountains, eastern and western Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, hills of southern Jiangsu and Anhui, part of the mountains in North China. Global warming might lead to the shrinking in suitable region and retreating from the south for Q. variabilis.

Temperature drives abundance fluctuations, but spatial dynamics is constrained by landscape configuration: Implications for climate-driven range shift in a butterfly.

PubMed

Fourcade, Yoan; Ranius, Thomas; Öckinger, Erik

2017-10-01

Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins. Here, using a butterfly (Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km in the future. Second, we used a 13-year monitoring dataset including the majority of all habitat patches at the species northern range margin to assess the synergetic impact of temperature fluctuations and spatial distribution of habitat, microclimatic conditions and habitat quality, on abundance and colonization-extinction dynamics. The fluctuation in abundance between years was almost entirely determined by the variation in temperature during the species larval development. In contrast, colonization and extinction dynamics were better explained by patch area, between-patch connectivity and host plant density. This suggests that the response of the species to future climate change may be limited by future land use and how its host plants respond to climate change. It is, thus, probable that dispersal limitation will prevent P. armoricanus from reaching its potential future distribution. We argue that models of range dynamics should consider the factors influencing metapopulation dynamics, especially at the range edges, and not only broad-scale climate. It includes factors acting at the scale of habitat patches such as habitat quality and microclimate and landscape-scale factors such as the spatial configuration of potentially suitable patches. Knowledge of population dynamics under various environmental conditions, and the incorporation of realistic scenarios of future land use, appears essential to provide predictions useful for actions mitigating the negative effects of climate change. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Carbon stock corridors to mitigate climate change and promote biodiversity in the tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jantz, Patrick; Goetz, Scott; Laporte, Nadine

2014-02-01

A key issue in global conservation is how biodiversity co-benefits can be incorporated into land use and climate change mitigation activities, particularly those being negotiated under the United Nations to reduce emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation. Protected areas have been the dominant strategy for tropical forest conservation and they have increased substantially in recent decades. Avoiding deforestation by preserving carbon stored in vegetation between protected areas provides an opportunity to mitigate the effects of land use and climate change on biodiversity by maintaining habitat connectivity across landscapes. Here we use a high-resolution data set of vegetation carbon stock to map corridors traversing areas of highest biomass between protected areas in the tropics. The derived corridors contain 15% of the total unprotected aboveground carbon in the tropical region. A large number of corridors have carbon densities that approach or exceed those of the protected areas they connect, suggesting these are suitable areas for achieving both habitat connectivity and climate change mitigation benefits. To further illustrate how economic and biological information can be used for corridor prioritization on a regional scale, we conducted a multicriteria analysis of corridors in the Legal Amazon, identifying corridors with high carbon, high species richness and endemism, and low economic opportunity costs. We also assessed the vulnerability of corridors to future deforestation threat.

Integration of remote sensing based surface information into a three-dimensional microclimate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heldens, Wieke; Heiden, Uta; Esch, Thomas; Mueller, Andreas; Dech, Stefan

2017-03-01

Climate change urges cities to consider the urban climate as part of sustainable planning. Urban microclimate models can provide knowledge on the climate at building block level. However, very detailed information on the area of interest is required. Most microclimate studies therefore make use of assumptions and generalizations to describe the model area. Remote sensing data with area wide coverage provides a means to derive many parameters at the detailed spatial and thematic scale required by urban climate models. This study shows how microclimate simulations for a series of real world urban areas can be supported by using remote sensing data. In an automated process, surface materials, albedo, LAI/LAD and object height have been derived and integrated into the urban microclimate model ENVI-met. Multiple microclimate simulations have been carried out both with the dynamic remote sensing based input data as well as with manual and static input data to analyze the impact of the RS-based surface information and the suitability of the applied data and techniques. A valuable support of the integration of the remote sensing based input data for ENVI-met is the use of an automated processing chain. This saves tedious manual editing and allows for fast and area wide generation of simulation areas. The analysis of the different modes shows the importance of high quality height data, detailed surface material information and albedo.

Projected impacts of climate change on environmental suitability for malaria transmission in West Africa.

PubMed

Yamana, Teresa K; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2013-10-01

Climate change is expected to affect the distribution of environmental suitability for malaria transmission by altering temperature and rainfall patterns; however, the local and global impacts of climate change on malaria transmission are uncertain. We assessed the effect of climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa. We coupled a detailed mechanistic hydrology and entomology model with climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) to predict changes in vectorial capacity, an indication of the risk of human malaria infections, resulting from changes in the availability of mosquito breeding sites and temperature-dependent development rates. Because there is strong disagreement in climate predictions from different GCMs, we focused on the GCM projections that produced the best and worst conditions for malaria transmission in each zone of the study area. Simulation-based estimates suggest that in the desert fringes of the Sahara, vectorial capacity would increase under the worst-case scenario, but not enough to sustain transmission. In the transitional zone of the Sahel, climate change is predicted to decrease vectorial capacity. In the wetter regions to the south, our estimates suggest an increase in vectorial capacity under all scenarios. However, because malaria is already highly endemic among human populations in these regions, we expect that changes in malaria incidence would be small. Our findings highlight the importance of rainfall in shaping the impact of climate change on malaria transmission in future climates. Even under the GCM predictions most conducive to malaria transmission, we do not expect to see a significant increase in malaria prevalence in this region.

Integration of climatic indices in an objective probabilistic model for establishing and mapping viticultural climatic zones in a region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moral, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo; Honorio, Fulgencio

2016-05-01

Different climatic indices have been proposed to determine the wine suitability in a region. Some of them are related to the air temperature, but the hydric component of climate should also be considered which, in turn, is influenced by the precipitation during the different stages of the grapevine growing and ripening periods. In this study, we propose using the information obtained from ten climatic indices [heliothermal index (HI), cool night index (CI), dryness index (DI), growing season temperature (GST), the Winkler index (WI), September mean thermal amplitude (MTA), annual precipitation (AP), precipitation during flowering (PDF), precipitation before flowering (PBF), and summer precipitation (SP)] as inputs in an objective and probabilistic model, the Rasch model, with the aim of integrating the individual effects of them, obtaining the climate data that summarize all main climatic indices, which could influence on wine suitability from a climate viewpoint, and utilizing the Rasch measures to generate homogeneous climatic zones. The use of the Rasch model to estimate viticultural climatic suitability constitutes a new application of great practical importance, enabling to rationally determine locations in a region where high viticultural potential exists and establishing a ranking of the climatic indices which exerts an important influence on wine suitability in a region. Furthermore, from the measures of viticultural climatic suitability at some locations, estimates can be computed using a geostatistical algorithm, and these estimates can be utilized to map viticultural climatic zones in a region. To illustrate the process, an application to Extremadura, southwestern Spain, is shown.

Climate matching as a tool for predicting potential North American spread of Brown Treesnakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodda, Gordon H.; Reed, Robert N.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Witmer, G.W.; Pitt, W. C.; Fagerstone, K.A.

2007-01-01

Climate matching identifies extralimital destinations that could be colonized by a potential invasive species on the basis of similarity to climates found in the species’ native range. Climate is a proxy for the factors that determine whether a population will reproduce enough to offset mortality. Previous climate matching models (e.g., Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction [GARP]) for brown treesnakes (Boiga irregularis) were unsatisfactory, perhaps because the models failed to allow different combinations of climate attributes to influence a species’ range limits in different parts of the range. Therefore, we explored the climate space described by bivariate parameters of native range temperature and rainfall, allowing up to two months of aestivation in the warmer portions of the range, or four months of hibernation in temperate climes. We found colonization area to be minimally sensitive to assumptions regarding hibernation temperature thresholds. Although brown treesnakes appear to be limited by dry weather in the interior of Australia, aridity rarely limits potential distribution in most of the world. Potential colonization area in North America is limited primarily by cold. Climatically suitable portions of the United States (US) mainland include the Central Valley of California, mesic patches in the Southwest, and the southeastern coastal plain from Texas to Virginia.

78 FR 65248 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Threatened Status for the Distinct Population...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-31

... effects of climate change on wolverines in the future. Our assessment of climate change impacts on wolverines used wolverines' snow dependence and suitable wolverine habitat and climate change models to predict future impacts of climate change on wolverine habitat suitability. Some of the commenters...

Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change hazards at the regional scale: the case study of the North Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Rizzi, J.; Marcomini, A.

2012-07-01

Sea level rise, changes in storms and wave climate as a consequence of global climate change are expected to increase the size and magnitude of flooded and eroding coastal areas, thus having profound impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. River deltas, beaches, estuaries and lagoons are considered particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, which should be studied at the regional/local scale. This paper presents a regional vulnerability assessment (RVA) methodology developed to analyse site-specific spatial information on coastal vulnerability to the envisaged effects of global climate change, and assist coastal communities in operational coastal management and conservation. The main aim of the RVA is to identify key vulnerable receptors (i.e. natural and human ecosystems) in the considered region and localize vulnerable hot spot areas, which could be considered as homogeneous geographic sites for the definition of adaptation strategies. The application of the RVA methodology is based on a heterogeneous subset of bio-geophysical and socio-economic vulnerability indicators (e.g. coastal topography, geomorphology, presence and distribution of vegetation cover, location of artificial protection), which are a measure of the potential harm from a range of climate-related impacts (e.g. sea level rise inundation, storm surge flooding, coastal erosion). Based on a system of numerical weights and scores, the RVA provides relative vulnerability maps that allow to prioritize more vulnerable areas and targets of different climate-related impacts in the examined region and to support the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities, providing a basis for coastal zoning and land use planning. The implementation, performance and results of the methodology for the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) are fully described in the paper.

Site suitability evaluation of an old operating landfill using AHP and GIS techniques and integrated hydrogeological and geophysical surveys.

PubMed

Saatsaz, Masoud; Monsef, Iman; Rahmani, Mostafa; Ghods, Abdolreza

2018-02-16

Because of the outdated methods of common landfill selection, it is imperative to reevaluate the usage suitability. To assess the suitability of the existing waste landfill in Zanjan, Iran, we have used a combination of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and GIS techniques, along with fieldwork surveys. Four major criteria and 12 subcriteria were considered, and the AHP was applied to assign the relative importance weights of criteria and subcriteria to each other. Finally, a landfill suitability map was generated and ranked based on the final suitability scores. The results show that the unsuitable areas are around Zanjan, in the middle parts of the plain. By contrast, the most suitable areas are uncultivated areas, located mostly in the west, north, and south. The results also indicate that the present landfill is a highly suitable site. After desk studies, geoelectrical surveys and infiltration measurements were conducted to make the final decision. Double-ring permeability tests confirm the landfill is an acceptable site. The electrical sounding shows that the leachate plume has a width of about ~ 450 m, spreads to a depth of about ~ 55 m, and migrates towards the northeast. Considering the groundwater depth, dry climate, and a low infiltration rate of the landfill soils, it can be concluded that leachate plumes will not contaminate groundwater within this decade. The proposed method can be implemented to reevaluate the suitability of any old operating reservoir such as oil reservoirs, petrol filling stations, heavy industrial tanks, and landfills, containing liquid hazardous materials.

Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald-Madden, Eve; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; Martin, Tara G.

2011-08-01

Managed relocation is a controversial climate-adaptation strategy to combat negative climate change impacts on biodiversity. While the scientific community debates the merits of managed relocation, species are already being moved to new areas predicted to be more suitable under climate change. To inform these moves, we construct a quantitative decision framework to evaluate the timing of relocation in the face of climate change. We find that the optimal timing depends on many factors, including the size of the population, the demographic costs of translocation and the expected carrying capacities over time in the source and destination habitats. In some settings, such as when a small population would benefit from time to grow before risking translocation losses, haste is ill advised. We also find that active adaptive management is valuable when the effect of climate change on source habitat is uncertain, and leads to delayed movement.

Managing hardwood-softwood mixtures for future forests in eastern North America: assessing suitability to projected climate change

Treesearch

John M. Kabrick; Kenneth L. Clark; Anthony W. D' Amato; Daniel C. Dey; Laura S. Kenefic; Christel C. Kern; Benjamin O. Knapp; David A. MacLean; Patricia Raymond; Justin D. Waskiewicz

2017-01-01

Despite growing interest in management strategies for climate change adaptation, there are few methods for assessing the ability of stands to endure or adapt to projected future climates. We developed a means for assigning climate "Compatibility" and "Adaptability" scores to stands for assessing the suitability of tree species for projected climate...

Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation-management strategies in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Brink, Kevin W.; Jacobi, James D.; Loh, Rhonda; Price, Jonathan; Fortini, Lucas B.

2018-06-05

Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Land managers and other responsible agencies will need to know how plant-species habitats will change over the next century in order to manage these resources effectively. This issue is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO), where currently managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs) for important plant species and communities may no longer provide suitable habitats in the future as the climate changes. Expanding invasive-species distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate.The objective of this project was to combine recent climate-modeling efforts for the state of Hawai‘i with existing models of plant-species distribution in order to forecast suitable habitat ranges under future climate conditions derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3) global circulation model that was dynamically downscaled for the Hawaiian Islands by using the Hawai‘i Regional Climate Model (HRCM). The HRCM uses the A1B emission scenario (a median future climate projection) from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). On the basis of this model, maps showing projected plant-species ranges were generated for four years as snapshots in time (2000, 2040, 2070, 2090) and for three different trajectories of climate change (gradual, linear, rapid) between the present and future.We mapped probabilistic surfaces of suitable habitat for 39 plant species (both native and alien [nonnative]) identified as being of interest to HAVO resource managers. We displayed these surfaces in terms of change relative to present conditions, whether the range of a given plant species was expected to contract, expand, or remain the same in the future. Within HAVO, approximately two-thirds (18 of 29) of the modeled native plant species were projected to contract in range, whereas one-third (11 of 29) were projected to increase. Most of the HAVO SEAs were projected to lose most of the native plant species modeled. Within HAVO, all alien plant species except Lantana camara were projected to contract in range within the park; this trend was observed in most SEAs, including those at low, middle, and high elevations. Congruence was good in the “current” (2000) distribution of plant-species richness and SEA configurations; however, the congruence between species-richness hotspots and SEAs diminished by the projected “end-of-century” (2090) distribution. Over time, the projected species-richness hotspots increasingly occurred outside of the currently configured SEA boundaries.

The Etesian wind system and wind energy potential over the Aegean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dafka, Stella; Xoplaki, Elena; Garcia-Bustamante, Elena; Toreti, Andrea; Zanis, Prodromos; Luterbacher, Juerg

2013-04-01

The Mediterranean region lies in an area of great climatic interest since it is influenced by some of the most relevant mechanisms of the global climate system. In the frame of the three Europe 2020 priorities for a smart, sustainable and inclusive economy delivering high levels of employment, productivity and social cohesion, the Mediterranean energy plan is of paramount importance at the European level, being an area with a significant potential for renewable energy from natural sources that could play an important role in responding to climate change effects over the region. We present preliminary results on a study of the Etesian winds in the past, present and future time. We investigate the variability and predictability of the wind field over the Aegean. Statistical downscaling based on several methodologies will be applied (e.g. canonical correlation analysis and multiple linear regression). Instrumental time series, Era-Interim and the 20CR reanalyses will be used. Large-scale climate drivers as well as the influence of local/regional factors and their interaction with the Etesian wind field will be addressed. Finally, the Etesian wind resources on the present and future climate will be assessed in order to identify the potential areas suitable for the establishment of wind farms and the production of wind power in the Aegean Sea.

Application of climatic indices to analyse viticultural suitability in Extremadura, south-western Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moral, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo; de Salazar, Enrique Martínez

2016-01-01

Although climate is recognised as one of the main drivers of viticulture success, its main features have not been sufficiently described in many viticultural regions, including Extremadura, which contains one of the largest grapevine-growing areas in Europe. Using climatic data from 80 weather stations located throughout Extremadura, seven bioclimatic indices were calculated to estimate heat accumulation and potential water balance during the growing season and the thermal regime during the ripening of grapes. Differences in some climatic indices were found, and after a multivariate geographic analysis, four groups were delimited containing weather stations with similar climatic features, with variability between groups explained by heat accumulation and tempearture and thermal amplitude during the ripening season. Suitability for cultivation of grapevines without thermal restriction and temperate nights during the ripening period are the main characteristics of the weather stations studied, but spatial variability found in climatic potential denotes the importance of differentiating locations to properly relate the viticultural climate to grape quality factors and the style of wines produced. The climatic features of the four groups are very similar to those described in other viticultural regions, including those in close proximity to Extremadura and others worldwide, but few studies have used broad and updated temporal climate data for computing bioclimatic indices as in this case study. Finally, trends in climate indices were analysed. Results revealed that all groups have experienced warmer growing seasons, driven mainly by changes in minimum temperatures. This fact has numerous potential impacts, including changes in grapevine phenological timing, disruption of balanced composition in grapes (ultimately affecting wine characteristics), alterations in varieties grown and spatial changes in viable winegrape-growing zones.

The effects of habitat, climate, and Barred Owls on long-term demography of Northern Spotted Owls

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dugger, Catherine; Forsman, Eric D.; Franklin, Alan B.; Davis, Raymond J.; White, Gary C.; Schwarz, Carl J.; Burnham, Kenneth P.; Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Doherty, Paul F.; Bailey, Larissa; Clark, Darren A.; Ackers, Steven H.; Andrews, Lawrence S.; Augustine, Benjamin; Biswell, Brian L.; Blakesley, Jennifer; Carlson, Peter C.; Clement, Matthew J.; Diller, Lowell V.; Glenn, Elizabeth M.; Green, Adam; Gremel, Scott A.; Herter, Dale R.; Higley, J. Mark; Hobson, Jeremy; Horn, Rob B.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; McCafferty, Christopher; McDonald, Trent; McDonnell, Kevin; Olson, Gail S.; Reid, Janice A.; Rockweit, Jeremy; Ruiz, Viviana; Saenz, Jessica; Sovern, Stan G.

2016-01-01

Estimates of species' vital rates and an understanding of the factors affecting those parameters over time and space can provide crucial information for management and conservation. We used mark–recapture, reproductive output, and territory occupancy data collected during 1985–2013 to evaluate population processes of Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in 11 study areas in Washington, Oregon, and northern California, USA. We estimated apparent survival, fecundity, recruitment, rate of population change, and local extinction and colonization rates, and investigated relationships between these parameters and the amount of suitable habitat, local and regional variation in meteorological conditions, and competition with Barred Owls (Strix varia). Data were analyzed for each area separately and in a meta-analysis of all areas combined, following a strict protocol for data collection, preparation, and analysis. We used mixed effects linear models for analyses of fecundity, Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models for analyses of apparent annual survival (ϕ), and a reparameterization of the Jolly-Seber capture–recapture model (i.e. reverse Jolly-Seber; RJS) to estimate annual rates of population change (λRJS) and recruitment. We also modeled territory occupancy dynamics of Northern Spotted Owls and Barred Owls in each study area using 2-species occupancy models. Estimated mean annual rates of population change (λ) suggested that Spotted Owl populations declined from 1.2% to 8.4% per year depending on the study area. The weighted mean estimate of λ for all study areas was 0.962 (± 0.019 SE; 95% CI: 0.925–0.999), indicating an estimated range-wide decline of 3.8% per year from 1985 to 2013. Variation in recruitment rates across the range of the Spotted Owl was best explained by an interaction between total winter precipitation and mean minimum winter temperature. Thus, recruitment rates were highest when both total precipitation (29 cm) and minimum winter temperature (−9.5°C) were lowest. Barred Owl presence was associated with increased local extinction rates of Spotted Owl pairs for all 11 study areas. Habitat covariates were related to extinction rates for Spotted Owl pairs in 8 of 11 study areas, and a greater amount of suitable owl habitat was generally associated with decreased extinction rates. We observed negative effects of Barred Owl presence on colonization rates of Spotted Owl pairs in 5 of 11 study areas. The total amount of suitable Spotted Owl habitat was positively associated with colonization rates in 5 areas, and more habitat disturbance was associated with lower colonization rates in 2 areas. We observed strong declines in derived estimates of occupancy in all study areas. Mean fecundity of females was highest for adults (0.309 ± 0.027 SE), intermediate for 2-yr-olds (0.179 ± 0.040 SE), and lowest for 1-yr-olds (0.065 ± 0.022 SE). The presence of Barred Owls and habitat covariates explained little of the temporal variation in fecundity in most study areas. Climate covariates occurred in competitive fecundity models in 8 of 11 study areas, but support for these relationships was generally weak. The fecundity meta-analysis resulted in 6 competitive models, all of which included the additive effects of geographic region and annual time variation. The 2 top-ranked models also weakly supported the additive negative effects of the amount of suitable core area habitat, Barred Owl presence, and the amount of edge habitat on fecundity. We found strong support for a negative effect of Barred Owl presence on apparent survival of Spotted Owls in 10 of 11 study areas, but found few strong effects of habitat on survival at the study area scale. Climate covariates occurred in top or competitive survival models for 10 of 11 study areas, and in most cases the relationships were as predicted; however, there was little consistency among areas regarding the relative importance of specific climate covariates. In contrast, meta-analysis results suggested that Spotted Owl survival was higher across all study areas when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was in a warming phase and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was negative, with a strongly negative SOI indicative of El Niño events. The best model that included the Barred Owl covariate (BO) was ranked 4th and also included the PDO covariate, but the BO effect was strongly negative. Our results indicated that Northern Spotted Owl populations were declining throughout the range of the subspecies and that annual rates of decline were accelerating in many areas. We observed strong evidence that Barred Owls negatively affected Spotted Owl populations, primarily by decreasing apparent survival and increasing local territory extinction rates. However, the amount of suitable owl habitat, local weather, and regional climatic patterns also were related to survival, occupancy (via colonization rate), recruitment, and, to a lesser extent, fecundity, although there was inconsistency in regard to which covariates were important for particular demographic parameters or across study areas. In the study areas where habitat was an important source of variation for Spotted Owl demographics, vital rates were generally positively associated with a greater amount of suitable owl habitat. However, Barred Owl densities may now be high enough across the range of the Northern Spotted Owl that, despite the continued management and conservation of suitable owl habitat on federal lands, the long-term prognosis for the persistence of Northern Spotted Owls may be in question without additional management intervention. Based on our study, the removal of Barred Owls from the Green Diamond Resources (GDR) study area had rapid, positive effects on Northern Spotted Owl survival and the rate of population change, supporting the hypothesis that, along with habitat conservation and management, Barred Owl removal may be able to slow or reverse Northern Spotted Owl population declines on at least a localized scale.

Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest.

PubMed

Mazziotta, Adriano; Triviño, Maria; Tikkanen, Olli-Pekka; Kouki, Jari; Strandman, Harri; Mönkkönen, Mikko

2015-02-01

Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost-effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red-listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the intensity of climate change. Our results indicate that the Finnish landscape is likely to be dominated by a very high proportion of sensitive and susceptible forest patches, thereby increasing uncertainty for landscape managers in the choice of conservation strategies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Review of Frameworks for Developing Environmental Health Indicators for Climate Change and Health

PubMed Central

Hambling, Tammy; Weinstein, Philip; Slaney, David

2011-01-01

The role climate change may play in altering human health, particularly in the emergence and spread of diseases, is an evolving area of research. It is important to understand this relationship because it will compound the already significant burden of diseases on national economies and public health. Authorities need to be able to assess, anticipate, and monitor human health vulnerability to climate change, in order to plan for, or implement action to avoid these eventualities. Environmental health indicators (EHIs) provide a tool to assess, monitor, and quantify human health vulnerability, to aid in the design and targeting of interventions, and measure the effectiveness of climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. Our aim was to identify the most suitable framework for developing EHIs to measure and monitor the impacts of climate change on human health and inform the development of interventions. Using published literature we reviewed the attributes of 11 frameworks. We identified the Driving force-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action (DPSEEA) framework as the most suitable one for developing EHIs for climate change and health. We propose the use of EHIs as a valuable tool to assess, quantify, and monitor human health vulnerability, design and target interventions, and measure the effectiveness of climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. In this paper, we lay the groundwork for the future development of EHIs as a multidisciplinary approach to link existing environmental and epidemiological data and networks. Analysis of such data will contribute to an enhanced understanding of the relationship between climate change and human health. PMID:21845162

[Research on climatic factors of ecology suitability regionalization of atractylodis].

PubMed

Tan, Zhe-tian; Wang, Hao; Zhu, Shou-dong; Yan, Yu-ping; Guo, Lan-ping; Zheng, Yu-guang

2015-11-01

Through study on the correlation between atractylodis lactones ingredient content and climatic factors, we research regionalization from climatic of five main producing provinces of the country, in order to provide a scientific basis for atractylodis' conscious cultivation. By sampling from 40 origins which from five main producing provinces of the country, we use SPSS to analysis variation of atractylodis lactones ingredient content in different conditions of climatic factors and the effect of each factors. Then according to the relationship between atractylodis lactones ingredient content and climatic factors, we use ArcGIS to conduct ecological suitability regionalization based on climatic factors. The most suitable climatic condition for cultivation of atractylodis: the wettest month precipitation 220-230 mm, the warmest average temperature 25 degrees C, the average temperature of driest season 10 degrees C.

Risk levels of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. in areas suitable for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) cultivation under various climate change projections.

PubMed

Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit

2013-01-01

Global climate model outputs involve uncertainties in prediction, which could be reduced by identifying agreements between the output results of different models, covering all assumptions included in each. Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. is an invasive pathogen that poses risk to date palm cultivation, among other crops. Therefore, in this study, the future distribution of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., confirmed by CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR) GCMs, was modeled and combined with the future distribution of date palm predicted by the same GCMs, to identify areas suitable for date palm cultivation with different risk levels of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. Results showed that 40%, 37%, 33% and 28% areas projected to become highly conducive to date palm are under high risk of its lethal fungus, compared with 37%, 39%, 43% and 42% under low risk, for the chosen years respectively. Our study also indicates that areas with marginal risk will be limited to 231, 212, 186 and 172 million hectares by 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. The study further demonstrates that CLIMEX outputs refined by a combination of different GCMs results of different species that have symbiosis or parasite relationship, ensure that the predictions become robust, rather than producing hypothetical findings, limited purely to publication.

Risk Levels of Invasive Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. in Areas Suitable for Date Palm (Phoenix dactylifera) Cultivation under Various Climate Change Projections

PubMed Central

Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit

2013-01-01

Global climate model outputs involve uncertainties in prediction, which could be reduced by identifying agreements between the output results of different models, covering all assumptions included in each. Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. is an invasive pathogen that poses risk to date palm cultivation, among other crops. Therefore, in this study, the future distribution of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., confirmed by CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR) GCMs, was modeled and combined with the future distribution of date palm predicted by the same GCMs, to identify areas suitable for date palm cultivation with different risk levels of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. Results showed that 40%, 37%, 33% and 28% areas projected to become highly conducive to date palm are under high risk of its lethal fungus, compared with 37%, 39%, 43% and 42% under low risk, for the chosen years respectively. Our study also indicates that areas with marginal risk will be limited to 231, 212, 186 and 172 million hectares by 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. The study further demonstrates that CLIMEX outputs refined by a combination of different GCMs results of different species that have symbiosis or parasite relationship, ensure that the predictions become robust, rather than producing hypothetical findings, limited purely to publication. PMID:24340100

Potential for Zika virus introduction and transmission in resource-limited countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region: a modelling study.

PubMed

Bogoch, Isaac I; Brady, Oliver J; Kraemer, Moritz U G; German, Matthew; Creatore, Maria I; Brent, Shannon; Watts, Alexander G; Hay, Simon I; Kulkarni, Manisha A; Brownstein, John S; Khan, Kamran

2016-11-01

As the epidemic of Zika virus expands in the Americas, countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are becoming increasingly susceptible to the importation and possible local spread of the virus. To support public health readiness, we aim to identify regions and times where the potential health, economic, and social effects from Zika virus are greatest, focusing on resource-limited countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. Our model combined transportation network analysis, ecological modelling of mosquito occurrences, and vector competence for flavivirus transmission, using data from the International Air Transport Association, entomological observations from Zika's primary vector species, and climate conditions using WorldClim. We overlaid monthly flows of airline travellers arriving to Africa and the Asia-Pacific region from areas of the Americas suitable for year-round transmission of Zika virus with monthly maps of climatic suitability for mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus within Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. An estimated 2·6 billion people live in areas of Africa and the Asia-Pacific region where the presence of competent mosquito vectors and suitable climatic conditions could support local transmission of Zika virus. Countries with large volumes of travellers arriving from Zika virus-affected areas of the Americas and large populations at risk of mosquito-borne Zika virus infection include India (67 422 travellers arriving per year; 1·2 billion residents in potential Zika transmission areas), China (238 415 travellers; 242 million residents), Indonesia (13 865 travellers; 197 million residents), Philippines (35 635 travellers; 70 million residents), and Thailand (29 241 travellers; 59 million residents). Many countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are vulnerable to Zika virus. Strategic use of available health and human resources is essential to prevent or mitigate the health, economic, and social consequences of Zika virus, especially in resource-limited countries. Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential for Zika virus introduction and transmission in resource limited countries in Africa and Asia-Pacific: A modeling study

PubMed Central

German, Matthew; Creatore, Maria I.; Brent, Shannon; Watts, Alexander G.; Hay, Simon I.; Kulkarni, Manisha A.; Brownstein, John S.; Khan, Kamran

2016-01-01

Summary Background As the epidemic of Zika virus expands in the Americas, countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are becoming increasingly susceptible to the importation and possible local spread of the virus. To support public health readiness, we aim to identify regions and times where the potential health, economic, and social effects from Zika virus are greatest, focusing on resource-limited countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. Methods Our model combined transportation network analysis, ecological modelling of mosquito occurrences, and vector competence for flavivirus transmission, using data from the International Air Transport Association, entomological observations from Zika’s primary vector species, and climate conditions using WorldClim. We overlaid monthly flows of airline travellers arriving to Africa and the Asia-Pacific region from areas of the Americas suitable for year-round transmission of Zika virus with monthly maps of climatic suitability for mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus within Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. Findings An estimated 2·6 billion people live in areas of Africa and the Asia-Pacific region where the presence of competent mosquito vectors and suitable climatic conditions could support local transmission of Zika virus. Countries with large volumes of travellers arriving from Zika affected areas of the Americas and large populations at risk of mosquito-borne Zika virus infection include, India (67 422 travellers arriving per year; 1·2 billion residents in potential Zika transmission areas), China (238 415 travellers; 242 million residents), Indonesia (13 865 travellers; 197 million residents), Philippines (35 635 travellers; 70 million residents), and Thailand (29 241 travellers; 59 million residents). Interpretation Many countries across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are vulnerable to Zika virus. Strategic use of available health and human resources is essential to prevent or mitigate the health, economic and social consequences of Zika virus, especially in resource-limited countries. Funding Source Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. PMID:27593584

Species distribution modelling for Rhipicephalus microplus (Acari: Ixodidae) in Benin, West Africa: comparing datasets and modelling algorithms.

PubMed

De Clercq, E M; Leta, S; Estrada-Peña, A; Madder, M; Adehan, S; Vanwambeke, S O

2015-01-01

Rhipicephalus microplus is one of the most widely distributed and economically important ticks, transmitting Babesia bigemina, B. bovis and Anaplasma marginale. It was recently introduced to West Africa on live animals originating from Brazil. Knowing the precise environmental suitability for the tick would allow veterinary health officials to draft vector control strategies for different regions of the country. To test the performance of modelling algorithms and different sets of environmental explanatory variables, species distribution models for this tick species in Benin were developed using generalized linear models, linear discriminant analysis and random forests. The training data for these models were a dataset containing reported absence or presence in 104 farms, randomly selected across Benin. These farms were sampled at the end of the rainy season, which corresponds with an annual peak in tick abundance. Two environmental datasets for the country of Benin were compared: one based on interpolated climate data (WorldClim) and one based on remotely sensed images (MODIS). The pixel size for both environmental datasets was 1 km. Highly suitable areas occurred mainly along the warmer and humid coast extending northwards to central Benin. The northern hot and drier areas were found to be unsuitable. The models developed and tested on data from the entire country were generally found to perform well, having an AUC value greater than 0.92. Although statistically significant, only small differences in accuracy measures were found between the modelling algorithms, or between the environmental datasets. The resulting risk maps differed nonetheless. Models based on interpolated climate suggested gradual variations in habitat suitability, while those based on remotely sensed data indicated a sharper contrast between suitable and unsuitable areas, and a patchy distribution of the suitable areas. Remotely sensed data yielded more spatial detail in the predictions. When computing accuracy measures on a subset of data along the invasion front, the modelling technique Random Forest outperformed the other modelling approaches, and results with MODIS-derived variables were better than those using WorldClim data. The high environmental suitability for R. microplus in the southern half of Benin raises concern at the regional level for animal health, including its potential to substantially alter transmission risk of Babesia bovis. The northern part of Benin appeared overall of low environmental suitability. Continuous surveillance in the transition zone however remains relevant, in relation to important cattle movements in the region, and to the invasive character of R. microplus. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-distance dispersal or postglacial contraction? Insights into disjunction between Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains and Taiwan in a cold-adapted herbaceous genus, Triplostegia.

PubMed

Niu, Yan-Ting; Ye, Jian-Fei; Zhang, Jin-Long; Wan, Ji-Zhong; Yang, Tuo; Wei, Xiao-Xin; Lu, Li-Min; Li, Jian-Hua; Chen, Zhi-Duan

2018-01-01

Current disjunct patterns can result from long-distance dispersal or postglacial contraction. We herein investigate the evolutionary history of Triplostegia to elucidate the disjunction between the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountain region (HHM) and Taiwan (TW). Genetic structure of Triplostegia was investigated for 48 populations using sequences from five chloroplast loci and the ribosomal nuclear internal transcribed spacer. Divergence time estimation, ancestral area reconstruction, and species distribution modeling (SDM) were employed to examine the biogeographic history of Triplostegia . Substantial genetic differentiation among populations from southwestern China (SW), Central China (CC), and TW was detected. Triplostegia was inferred to have originated in SW, and diversification began during the late Miocene; CC was colonized in the mid-Pliocene, and TW was finally colonized in the early Pleistocene. SDM suggested an expansion of climatically suitable areas during the Last Glacial Maximum and range contraction during the Last interglacial in Triplostegia . Disjunction between HHM and TW in Triplostegia is most likely the consequence of topographic isolation and postglacial contraction. The potential climatic suitability areas for Triplostegia by 2070s (2061-2080) are predicted to slightly shrink and move northward. With continued global warming and human-induced deforestation, extinction risk may increase for the cold-adapted species, and appropriate strategies should be employed for ecosystem conservation.

Significant Threat to North American forests from Southern Pine Beetle with Warming Winters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, R. M.; Lesk, C.; Coffel, E.; D'Amato, A. W.

2016-12-01

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to lift range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present the first projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption of local ecosystem services, dramatic shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.

Bioclimatic models estimate areas with suitable climate for Armillaria spp. in Wyoming

Treesearch

James T. Blodgett; John W. Hanna; Eric W. I. Pitman; Sara M. Ashiglar; John E. Lundquist; Mee-Sook Kim; Amy L. Ross-Davis; Ned B. Klopfenstein

2015-01-01

Armillaria species range from beneficial saprobes to damaging root pathogens, and their ecological roles and impacts vary with environment and host. Armillaria solidipes [pending vote to conserve A. ostoyae . (Redhead et al. 2011 )] is known as an aggressive pathogen of conifers and causes tree mortality and significant growth loss in Wyoming and throughout...

Resource Evaluation and Site Selection for Microalgae Production in India

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milbrandt, A.; Jarvis, E.

2010-09-01

The study evaluates climate conditions, availability of CO2 and other nutrients, water resources, and land characteristics to identify areas in India suitable for algae production. The purpose is to provide an understanding of the resource potential in India for algae biofuels production and to assist policymakers, investors, and industry developers in their future strategic decisions.

Beyond a Climate-Centric View of Plant Distribution: Edaphic Variables Add Value to Distribution Models

PubMed Central

Beauregard, Frieda; de Blois, Sylvie

2014-01-01

Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839) covering an extent of ∼55000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study identifies the potential for non-climate aspects of the environment to pose a constraint to range expansion under climate change. PMID:24658097

Beyond a climate-centric view of plant distribution: edaphic variables add value to distribution models.

PubMed

Beauregard, Frieda; de Blois, Sylvie

2014-01-01

Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839) covering an extent of ∼55,000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study identifies the potential for non-climate aspects of the environment to pose a constraint to range expansion under climate change.

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Hydrologic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change on Shallow Aquatic Ecosystems in the Mobile Bay, AL Estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estes, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Judd, C.; Ellis, J.; Woodruff, D.; Quattrochi, D.; Rose, K.; Swann, R.

2012-12-01

Coastal systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including the Mobile Bay, AL estuary, are subject to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including climate change. Climate changes have a direct effect on the discharge of rivers that drain into Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal water bodies. The outflows change water quality (temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations) in the shallow aquatic areas and affect ecosystem functioning. Mobile Bay is a vital ecosystem that provides habitat for many species of fauna and flora. Historically, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and seagrasses were found in this area of the northern Gulf of Mexico; however the extent of vegetation has significantly decreased over the last 60 years. The objectives of this research are to determine: how climate changes affect runoff and water quality in the estuary and how these changes will affect habitat suitability for SAV and seagrasses. Our approach is to use watershed and hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change on shallow water aquatic ecosystems in Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal areas. Remotely sensed Landsat data were used for current land cover land use (LCLU) model input and the data provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the future changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to create the climate scenarios for the 2025 and 2050 model simulations. Project results are being shared with Gulf coast stakeholders through the Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas to benefit coastal policy and climate change adaptation strategies.

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Hydrologic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change on Shallow Aquatic Ecosystems in the Mobile Bay, AL Estuary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Judd, C.; Woodruff, D.; Ellis, J. T.; Quattrochi, D.; Swann, R.

2012-01-01

Coastal systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including the Mobile Bay, AL estuary, are subject to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including climate change. Climate changes have a direct effect on the discharge of rivers that drain into Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal water bodies. The outflows change water quality (temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations) in the shallow aquatic areas and affect ecosystem functioning. Mobile Bay is a vital ecosystem that provides habitat for many species of fauna and flora. Historically, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and seagrasses were found in this area of the northern Gulf of Mexico; however the extent of vegetation has significantly decreased over the last 60 years. The objectives of this research are to determine: how climate changes affect runoff and water quality in the estuary and how these changes will affect habitat suitability for SAV and seagrasses. Our approach is to use watershed and hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change on shallow water aquatic ecosystems in Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal areas. Remotely sensed Landsat data were used for current land cover land use (LCLU) model input and the data provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the future changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to create the climate scenarios for the 2025 and 2050 model simulations. Project results are being shared with Gulf coast stakeholders through the Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas to benefit coastal policy and climate change adaptation strategies.

Assessing environmental attributes and effects of climate change on Sphagnum peatland distributions in North America using single- and multi-species models.

PubMed

Oke, Tobi A; Hager, Heather A

2017-01-01

The fate of Northern peatlands under climate change is important because of their contribution to global carbon (C) storage. Peatlands are maintained via greater plant productivity (especially of Sphagnum species) than decomposition, and the processes involved are strongly mediated by climate. Although some studies predict that warming will relax constraints on decomposition, leading to decreased C sequestration, others predict increases in productivity and thus increases in C sequestration. We explored the lack of congruence between these predictions using single-species and integrated species distribution models as proxies for understanding the environmental correlates of North American Sphagnum peatland occurrence and how projected changes to the environment might influence these peatlands under climate change. Using Maximum entropy and BIOMOD modelling platforms, we generated single and integrated species distribution models for four common Sphagnum species in North America under current climate and a 2050 climate scenario projected by three general circulation models. We evaluated the environmental correlates of the models and explored the disparities in niche breadth, niche overlap, and climate suitability among current and future models. The models consistently show that Sphagnum peatland distribution is influenced by the balance between soil moisture deficit and temperature of the driest quarter-year. The models identify the east and west coasts of North America as the core climate space for Sphagnum peatland distribution. The models show that, at least in the immediate future, the area of suitable climate for Sphagnum peatland could expand. This result suggests that projected warming would be balanced effectively by the anticipated increase in precipitation, which would increase Sphagnum productivity.

Assessing environmental attributes and effects of climate change on Sphagnum peatland distributions in North America using single- and multi-species models

PubMed Central

Oke, Tobi A.; Hager, Heather A.

2017-01-01

The fate of Northern peatlands under climate change is important because of their contribution to global carbon (C) storage. Peatlands are maintained via greater plant productivity (especially of Sphagnum species) than decomposition, and the processes involved are strongly mediated by climate. Although some studies predict that warming will relax constraints on decomposition, leading to decreased C sequestration, others predict increases in productivity and thus increases in C sequestration. We explored the lack of congruence between these predictions using single-species and integrated species distribution models as proxies for understanding the environmental correlates of North American Sphagnum peatland occurrence and how projected changes to the environment might influence these peatlands under climate change. Using Maximum entropy and BIOMOD modelling platforms, we generated single and integrated species distribution models for four common Sphagnum species in North America under current climate and a 2050 climate scenario projected by three general circulation models. We evaluated the environmental correlates of the models and explored the disparities in niche breadth, niche overlap, and climate suitability among current and future models. The models consistently show that Sphagnum peatland distribution is influenced by the balance between soil moisture deficit and temperature of the driest quarter-year. The models identify the east and west coasts of North America as the core climate space for Sphagnum peatland distribution. The models show that, at least in the immediate future, the area of suitable climate for Sphagnum peatland could expand. This result suggests that projected warming would be balanced effectively by the anticipated increase in precipitation, which would increase Sphagnum productivity. PMID:28426754

Climatic influence on anthrax suitability in warming northern latitudes.

PubMed

Walsh, Michael G; de Smalen, Allard W; Mor, Siobhan M

2018-06-18

Climate change is impacting ecosystem structure and function, with potentially drastic downstream effects on human and animal health. Emerging zoonotic diseases are expected to be particularly vulnerable to climate and biodiversity disturbance. Anthrax is an archetypal zoonosis that manifests its most significant burden on vulnerable pastoralist communities. The current study sought to investigate the influence of temperature increases on geographic anthrax suitability in the temperate, boreal, and arctic North, where observed climate impact has been rapid. This study also explored the influence of climate relative to more traditional factors, such as livestock distribution, ungulate biodiversity, and soil-water balance, in demarcating risk. Machine learning was used to model anthrax suitability in northern latitudes. The model identified climate, livestock density and wild ungulate species richness as the most influential features in predicting suitability. These findings highlight the significance of warming temperatures for anthrax ecology in northern latitudes, and suggest potential mitigating effects of interventions targeting megafauna biodiversity conservation in grassland ecosystems, and animal health promotion among small to midsize livestock herds.

Phylogenetic climatic niche conservatism and evolution of climatic suitability in Neotropical Angraecinae (Vandeae, Orchidaceae) and their closest African relatives

PubMed Central

Konowalik, Kamil

2017-01-01

In the present study we investigate the concept of phylogenetic niche conservatism (PNC) within the American species of angraecoid orchids (Campylocentrum and Dendrophylax) and their closest relatives in the Old World (Angraecum) using ecological niche modelling (ENM). The predicted niche occupancy profiles were matched with the outcomes of previous phylogenetic studies to reconstruct the evolution of climatic suitability within the orchid group studied and evaluate the role of niche differentiation in the speciation of Angraecinae. No correlation between preferred niches and taxonomic relationships within the orchid group studied was revealed. The climatic suitability of the majority of the species overlapped each other, either fully or partially. This pattern is also present in the species of other orchid genera. Our research confirms a significant level of PNC in Orchidaceae, even within taxa exhibiting a transatlantic disjunction. The analysis of the evolution of climatic suitability indicated that the adaptation to various climatic conditions is not a factor that has driven speciation within orchids studied. PMID:28533976

Phylogenetic climatic niche conservatism and evolution of climatic suitability in Neotropical Angraecinae (Vandeae, Orchidaceae) and their closest African relatives.

PubMed

Kolanowska, Marta; Grochocka, Elżbieta; Konowalik, Kamil

2017-01-01

In the present study we investigate the concept of phylogenetic niche conservatism (PNC) within the American species of angraecoid orchids ( Campylocentrum and Dendrophylax ) and their closest relatives in the Old World ( Angraecum ) using ecological niche modelling (ENM). The predicted niche occupancy profiles were matched with the outcomes of previous phylogenetic studies to reconstruct the evolution of climatic suitability within the orchid group studied and evaluate the role of niche differentiation in the speciation of Angraecinae. No correlation between preferred niches and taxonomic relationships within the orchid group studied was revealed. The climatic suitability of the majority of the species overlapped each other, either fully or partially. This pattern is also present in the species of other orchid genera. Our research confirms a significant level of PNC in Orchidaceae, even within taxa exhibiting a transatlantic disjunction. The analysis of the evolution of climatic suitability indicated that the adaptation to various climatic conditions is not a factor that has driven speciation within orchids studied.

Including Fossils in Phylogenetic Climate Reconstructions: A Deep Time Perspective on the Climatic Niche Evolution and Diversification of Spiny Lizards (Sceloporus).

PubMed

Lawing, A Michelle; Polly, P David; Hews, Diana K; Martins, Emília P

2016-08-01

Fossils and other paleontological information can improve phylogenetic comparative method estimates of phenotypic evolution and generate hypotheses related to species diversification. Here, we use fossil information to calibrate ancestral reconstructions of suitable climate for Sceloporus lizards in North America. Integrating data from the fossil record, general circulation models of paleoclimate during the Miocene, climate envelope modeling, and phylogenetic comparative methods provides a geographically and temporally explicit species distribution model of Sceloporus-suitable habitat through time. We provide evidence to support the historic biogeographic hypothesis of Sceloporus diversification in warm North American deserts and suggest a relatively recent Sceloporus invasion into Mexico around 6 Ma. We use a physiological model to map extinction risk. We suggest that the number of hours of restriction to a thermal refuge limited Sceloporus from inhabiting Mexico until the climate cooled enough to provide suitable habitat at approximately 6 Ma. If the future climate returns to the hotter climates of the past, Mexico, the place of highest modern Sceloporus richness, will no longer provide suitable habitats for Sceloporus to survive and reproduce.

Regional climate models downscaling in the Alpine area with Multimodel SuperEnsemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cane, D.; Barbarino, S.; Renier, L. A.; Ronchi, C.

2012-08-01

The climatic scenarios show a strong signal of warming in the Alpine area already for the mid XXI century. The climate simulations, however, even when obtained with Regional Climate Models (RCMs), are affected by strong errors where compared with observations, due to their difficulties in representing the complex orography of the Alps and limitations in their physical parametrization. Therefore the aim of this work is reducing these model biases using a specific post processing statistic technique to obtain a more suitable projection of climate change scenarios in the Alpine area. For our purposes we use a selection of RCMs runs from the ENSEMBLES project, carefully chosen in order to maximise the variety of leading Global Climate Models and of the RCMs themselves, calculated on the SRES scenario A1B. The reference observation for the Greater Alpine Area are extracted from the European dataset E-OBS produced by the project ENSEMBLES with an available resolution of 25 km. For the study area of Piedmont daily temperature and precipitation observations (1957-present) were carefully gridded on a 14-km grid over Piedmont Region with an Optimal Interpolation technique. Hence, we applied the Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique to temperature fields, reducing the high biases of RCMs temperature field compared to observations in the control period. We propose also the first application to RCMS of a brand new probabilistic Multimodel SuperEnsemble Dressing technique to estimate precipitation fields, already applied successfully to weather forecast models, with careful description of precipitation Probability Density Functions conditioned to the model outputs. This technique reduces the strong precipitation overestimation by RCMs over the alpine chain and reproduces well the monthly behaviour of precipitation in the control period.

Effect of Climate Change on Mediterranean Winter Ranges of Two Migratory Passerines.

PubMed

Tellería, José L; Fernández-López, Javier; Fandos, Guillermo

2016-01-01

We studied the effect of climate change on the distribution of two insectivorous passerines (the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis and the chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita) in wintering grounds of the Western Mediterranean basin. In this region, precipitation and temperature can affect the distribution of these birds through direct (thermoregulation costs) or indirect effects (primary productivity). Thus, it can be postulated that projected climate changes in the region will affect the extent and suitability of their wintering grounds. We studied pipit and chiffchaff abundance in several hundred localities along a belt crossing Spain and Morocco and assessed the effects of climate and other geographical and habitat predictors on bird distribution. Multivariate analyses reported a positive effect of temperature on the present distribution of the two species, with an additional effect of precipitation on the meadow pipit. These climate variables were used with Maxent to model the occurrence probabilities of species using ring recoveries as presence data. Abundance and occupancy of the two species in the study localities adjusted to the distribution models, with more birds in sectors of high climate suitability. After validation, these models were used to forecast the distribution of climate suitability according to climate projections for 2050-2070 (temperature increase and precipitation reduction). Results show an expansion of climatically suitable sectors into the highlands by the effect of warming on the two species, and a retreat of the meadow pipit from southern sectors related to rain reduction. The predicted patterns show a mean increase in climate suitability for the two species due to the warming of the large highland expanses typical of the western Mediterranean.

Climate insensitivity of treeline in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, E. A.; Macias Fauria, M.

2011-12-01

Successful modelling efforts demonstrate that tree presence over a ~ 200 km2 alpine/subalpine area in the Front Ranges of the Canadian Rocky Mountains results from a multi-scale spatiotemporal process competition involving not only growing season temperatures but also topographical shelter, water availability, and substrate stability and availability. The study area was selected to represent the diversity of substrates and geomorphologic processes found in the Canadian Rockies, and ranges in elevation from 1400 to > 2800 meters above sea level. Tree presence was mapped at 10m resolution using a combination of remote sensing imagery (taken in 2008) and intensive ground truthing, and modelled with an ensemble of state-of-the-art environmental envelope models. Explanatory variables chosen represented not only temperature and moisture availability (computed over 1971-2000 climate normals), but also substrate diversity, slope angle and type, geomorphologic features, modelled regolith depth, and concavity/convexity of the terrain. Such variables were meant to serve as proxies for known convergent and divergent processes that occur on steep landscapes and that have profound influence on tree establishment and survival. Model performance was very high and revealed substrate and geomorphology to be the most important explanatory variables for tree presence in the area. Available high-resolution imagery for 1954 enabled the mapping of tree presence over most of the study area and the identification of changes in the distribution of trees over the last nearly six decades. Overall, the only major observed changes were related to post-fire stand recovery, and areas with treeline advance were insignificant at the landscape scale. Tree suitable sites were projected onto high resolution grids of late 21st century climatic conditions predicted by regional climate models driven by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Emissions scenario was A2 (as defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), at the higher end of emissions scenarios, and thus at the higher end of forecasted temperature increases. Projected changes in tree site availability were minimal at the landscape scale, as the presence of trees in the uppermost part of these forests largely depends on the existence of suitable sites largely linked to topography. Such places are the result of geomorphologic processes acting on a framework set by the structural geology of the region, and thus the appearance of new sites suitable for tree growth does not depend on short (i.e. yearly to decadal) time scales but on longer ones (i.e. centuries to millennia). This work has the strength of studying treeline over a whole area, thus avoiding potential biases in the regional representativity of local study sites, and warns against careless upscaling of site-based studies. Moreover, we suggest that the term 'treeline' is weak at a high-resolution landscape scale in our study area (i.e. young glaciated terrain) because the distribution of trees over the landscape is spatially irregular and most of the processes enabling or preventing tree presence occur over its whole elevational range.

Balancing trade-offs between ecosystem services in Germany’s forests under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutsch, Martin; Lasch-Born, Petra; Kollas, Chris; Suckow, Felicitas; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

2018-04-01

Germany’s forests provide a variety of ecosystem services. Sustainable forest management aims to optimize the provision of these services at regional level. However, climate change will impact forest ecosystems and subsequently ecosystem services. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of two alternative management scenarios and climate impacts on forest variables indicative of ecosystem services related to timber, habitat, water, and carbon. The ecosystem services are represented through nine model output variables (timber harvest, above and belowground biomass, net ecosystem production, soil carbon, percolation, nitrogen leaching, deadwood, tree dimension, broadleaf tree proportion) from the process-based forest model 4C. We simulated forest growth, carbon and water cycling until 2045 with 4C set-up for the whole German forest area based on National Forest Inventory data and driven by three management strategies (nature protection, biomass production and a baseline management) and an ensemble of regional climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5). We provide results as relative changes compared to the baseline management and observed climate. Forest management measures have the strongest effects on ecosystem services inducing positive or negative changes of up to 40% depending on the ecosystem service in question, whereas climate change only slightly alters ecosystem services averaged over the whole forest area. The ecosystem services ‘carbon’ and ‘timber’ benefit from climate change, while ‘water’ and ‘habitat’ lose. We detect clear trade-offs between ‘timber’ and all other ecosystem services, as well as synergies between ‘habitat’ and ‘carbon’. When evaluating all ecosystem services simultaneously, our results reveal certain interrelations between climate and management scenarios. North-eastern and western forest regions are more suitable to provide timber (while minimizing the negative impacts on remaining ecosystem services) whereas southern and central forest regions are more suitable to fulfil ‘habitat’ and ‘carbon’ services. The results provide the base for future forest management optimizations at the regional scale in order to maximize ecosystem services and forest ecosystem sustainability at the national scale.

Adaptation to floods in future climate: a practical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata; Radon, Radoslaw; Hisdal, Hege

2016-04-01

In this study some aspects of the application of the 1D hydraulic model are discussed with a focus on its suitability for flood adaptation under future climate conditions. The Biała Tarnowska catchment is used as a case study. A 1D hydraulic model is developed for the evaluation of inundation extent and risk maps in future climatic conditions. We analyse the following flood indices: (i) extent of inundation area; (ii) depth of water on flooded land; (iii) the flood wave duration; (iv) the volume of a flood wave over the threshold value. In this study we derive a model cross-section geometry following the results of primary research based on a 500-year flood inundation extent. We compare two methods of localisation of cross-sections from the point of view of their suitability to the derivation of the most precise inundation outlines. The aim is to specify embankment heights along the river channel that would protect the river valley in the most vulnerable locations under future climatic conditions. We present an experimental design for scenario analysis studies and uncertainty reduction options for future climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

Changes in climate suitability for tourism at Adriatic coast since 1961

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaninovic, Ksenija

2017-04-01

The aim of the paper is the comparison of suitability of climate conditions for tourism at the eastern Adriatic coast in the period 1961-2015. For quantitative estimation of suitability of climate for different kinds of tourism, climate index for tourism (CIT) is used. CIT integrates thermal, aesthetic and physical facets of atmospheric environment and therefore is suitable for estimation of climate satisfaction that ranges from very poor to very good. The thermal component is estimated using the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). The index is applied for: beach tourism, cycling, hiking, cultural tourism, golf, football, motor boating and sailing. Changes in climate potential of tourism are estimated by differences of distribution of climate index for tourism. For the warmest part of the day, the results indicate the extension of the summer tourist season for beach tourism at the end of the analyzed period. On the other hand, for other tourist activities in the same period the results indicate more pronounced bimodal distribution of CIT during year, resulting with the seasonality shift of ideal conditions for most activities to spring and autumn. Besides, in the morning the improvement of favourable climate conditions for all types of tourism at the end of the period.

Declining Prevalence of Disease Vectors Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escobar, Luis E.; Romero-Alvarez, Daniel; Leon, Renato; Lepe-Lopez, Manuel A.; Craft, Meggan E.; Borbor-Cordova, Mercy J.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2016-12-01

More than half of the world population is at risk of vector-borne diseases including dengue fever, chikungunya, zika, yellow fever, leishmaniasis, chagas disease, and malaria, with highest incidences in tropical regions. In Ecuador, vector-borne diseases are present from coastal and Amazonian regions to the Andes Mountains; however, a detailed characterization of the distribution of their vectors has never been carried out. We estimate the distribution of 14 vectors of the above vector-borne diseases under present-day and future climates. Our results consistently suggest that climate warming is likely threatening some vector species with extinction, locally or completely. These results suggest that climate change could reduce the burden of specific vector species. Other vector species are likely to shift and constrain their geographic range to the highlands in Ecuador potentially affecting novel areas and populations. These forecasts show the need for development of early prevention strategies for vector species currently absent in areas projected as suitable under future climate conditions. Informed interventions could reduce the risk of human exposure to vector species with distributional shifts, in response to current and future climate changes. Based on the mixed effects of future climate on human exposure to disease vectors, we argue that research on vector-borne diseases should be cross-scale and include climatic, demographic, and landscape factors, as well as forces facilitating disease transmission at fine scales.

Rangewide determinants of population performance in Prunus lusitanica: Lessons for the contemporary conservation of a Tertiary relict tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pardo, Adara; Cáceres, Yonatan; Pulido, Fernando

2018-01-01

Relict species are an extremely important part of biodiversity and as such studies on the factors that allow their current persistence are required. The aim of this study was to assess the determinants of the distribution and range-wide population performance of the Tertiary relict tree Prunus lusitanica L. This threatened species is confined to Iberia, Northern Morocco and Macaronesia with a fragmented and scattered distribution. Using ecological niche modelling, we calculated the level of range filling across the range and tested its relationship with human impact. We then assessed the relative importance of climatic suitability as obtained through niche modelling, topographic factors and contemporary human impact on range-wide population performance. Results showed that the species occupies only 2.4% of the overall area predicted to be climatically suitable for its presence and the level of range filling varied across regions. A weak negative relationship among range filling and human impact was found. Overall climatic suitability was the strongest predictor of population performance. However, it showed high variability across regions: the effect was positive in Iberia whereas negative but not significant in Macaronesia and Morocco. Human impact showed a significant negative effect and finally topographic factors such as altitude had a minor negative effect. Our results highlight that both climate and human impact play a major role in the current limited range filling and performance of the species. Management plans to minimize anthropogenic disturbances together with reforestation measures are urgently needed in order to conserve this unique species.

Fish habitat regression under water scarcity scenarios in the Douro River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Neves, Ramiro; Ferreira, Teresa

2015-04-01

Climate change will predictably alter hydrological patterns and processes at the catchment scale, with impacts on habitat conditions for fish. The main goals of this study are to identify the stream reaches that will undergo more pronounced flow reduction under different climate change scenarios and to assess which fish species will be more affected by the consequent regression of suitable habitats. The interplay between changes in flow and temperature and the presence of transversal artificial obstacles (dams and weirs) is analysed. The results will contribute to river management and impact mitigation actions under climate change. This study was carried out in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. A set of 29 Hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were modelled using a water modelling system (MOHID), based on meteorological data recorded monthly between 2008 and 2014. The same variables were modelled considering future climate change scenarios. The resulting variables were used in empirical habitat models of a set of key species (brown trout Salmo trutta fario, barbell Barbus bocagei, and nase Pseudochondrostoma duriense) using boosted regression trees. The stream segments between tributaries were used as spatial sampling units. Models were developed for the whole Douro basin using 401 fish sampling sites, although the modelled probabilities of species occurrence for each stream segment were predicted only for the Tâmega catchment. These probabilities of occurrence were used to classify stream segments into suitable and unsuitable habitat for each fish species, considering the future climate change scenario. The stream reaches that were predicted to undergo longer flow interruptions were identified and crossed with the resulting predictive maps of habitat suitability to compute the total area of habitat loss per species. Among the target species, the brown trout was predicted to be the most sensitive to habitat regression due to the interplay of flow reduction, increase of temperature and transversal barriers. This species is therefore a good indicator of climate change impacts in rivers and therefore we recommend using this species as a target of monitoring programs to be implemented in the context of climate change adaptation strategies.

Spatially explicit multi-threat assessment of food tree species in Burkina Faso: A fine-scale approach

PubMed Central

Kindt, Roeland; Loo, Judy; Schmidt, Marco; Bognounou, Fidèle; Da, Sié Sylvestre; Diallo, Ousmane Boukary; Ganaba, Souleymane; Gnoumou, Assan; Lompo, Djingdia; Lykke, Anne Mette; Mbayngone, Elisée; Nacoulma, Blandine Marie Ivette; Ouedraogo, Moussa; Ouédraogo, Oumarou; Parkouda, Charles; Porembski, Stefan; Savadogo, Patrice; Thiombiano, Adjima; Zerbo, Guibien; Vinceti, Barbara

2017-01-01

Over the last decades agroforestry parklands in Burkina Faso have come under increasing demographic as well as climatic pressures, which are threatening indigenous tree species that contribute substantially to income generation and nutrition in rural households. Analyzing the threats as well as the species vulnerability to them is fundamental for priority setting in conservation planning. Guided by literature and local experts we selected 16 important food tree species (Acacia macrostachya, Acacia senegal, Adansonia digitata, Annona senegalensis, Balanites aegyptiaca, Bombax costatum, Boscia senegalensis, Detarium microcarpum, Lannea microcarpa, Parkia biglobosa, Sclerocarya birrea, Strychnos spinosa, Tamarindus indica, Vitellaria paradoxa, Ximenia americana, Ziziphus mauritiana) and six key threats to them (overexploitation, overgrazing, fire, cotton production, mining and climate change). We developed a species-specific and spatially explicit approach combining freely accessible datasets, species distribution models (SDMs), climate models and expert survey results to predict, at fine scale, where these threats are likely to have the greatest impact. We find that all species face serious threats throughout much of their distribution in Burkina Faso and that climate change is predicted to be the most prevalent threat in the long term, whereas overexploitation and cotton production are the most important short-term threats. Tree populations growing in areas designated as ‘highly threatened’ due to climate change should be used as seed sources for ex situ conservation and planting in areas where future climate is predicting suitable habitats. Assisted regeneration is suggested for populations in areas where suitable habitat under future climate conditions coincides with high threat levels due to short-term threats. In the case of Vitellaria paradoxa, we suggest collecting seed along the northern margins of its distribution and considering assisted regeneration in the central part where the current threat level is high due to overexploitation. In the same way, population-specific recommendations can be derived from the individual and combined threat maps of the other 15 food tree species. The approach can be easily transferred to other countries and can be used to analyze general and species specific threats at finer and more local as well as at broader (continental) scales in order to plan more selective and efficient conservation actions in time. The concept can be applied anywhere as long as appropriate spatial data are available as well as knowledgeable experts. PMID:28880962

Spatially explicit multi-threat assessment of food tree species in Burkina Faso: A fine-scale approach.

PubMed

Gaisberger, Hannes; Kindt, Roeland; Loo, Judy; Schmidt, Marco; Bognounou, Fidèle; Da, Sié Sylvestre; Diallo, Ousmane Boukary; Ganaba, Souleymane; Gnoumou, Assan; Lompo, Djingdia; Lykke, Anne Mette; Mbayngone, Elisée; Nacoulma, Blandine Marie Ivette; Ouedraogo, Moussa; Ouédraogo, Oumarou; Parkouda, Charles; Porembski, Stefan; Savadogo, Patrice; Thiombiano, Adjima; Zerbo, Guibien; Vinceti, Barbara

2017-01-01

Over the last decades agroforestry parklands in Burkina Faso have come under increasing demographic as well as climatic pressures, which are threatening indigenous tree species that contribute substantially to income generation and nutrition in rural households. Analyzing the threats as well as the species vulnerability to them is fundamental for priority setting in conservation planning. Guided by literature and local experts we selected 16 important food tree species (Acacia macrostachya, Acacia senegal, Adansonia digitata, Annona senegalensis, Balanites aegyptiaca, Bombax costatum, Boscia senegalensis, Detarium microcarpum, Lannea microcarpa, Parkia biglobosa, Sclerocarya birrea, Strychnos spinosa, Tamarindus indica, Vitellaria paradoxa, Ximenia americana, Ziziphus mauritiana) and six key threats to them (overexploitation, overgrazing, fire, cotton production, mining and climate change). We developed a species-specific and spatially explicit approach combining freely accessible datasets, species distribution models (SDMs), climate models and expert survey results to predict, at fine scale, where these threats are likely to have the greatest impact. We find that all species face serious threats throughout much of their distribution in Burkina Faso and that climate change is predicted to be the most prevalent threat in the long term, whereas overexploitation and cotton production are the most important short-term threats. Tree populations growing in areas designated as 'highly threatened' due to climate change should be used as seed sources for ex situ conservation and planting in areas where future climate is predicting suitable habitats. Assisted regeneration is suggested for populations in areas where suitable habitat under future climate conditions coincides with high threat levels due to short-term threats. In the case of Vitellaria paradoxa, we suggest collecting seed along the northern margins of its distribution and considering assisted regeneration in the central part where the current threat level is high due to overexploitation. In the same way, population-specific recommendations can be derived from the individual and combined threat maps of the other 15 food tree species. The approach can be easily transferred to other countries and can be used to analyze general and species specific threats at finer and more local as well as at broader (continental) scales in order to plan more selective and efficient conservation actions in time. The concept can be applied anywhere as long as appropriate spatial data are available as well as knowledgeable experts.

A Comparison of Forest Survey Data with Forest Dynamics Simulators FORCLIM and ZELIG along Climatic Gradients in the Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Busing, Richard T.; Solomon, Allen M.

2004-01-01

Two forest dynamics simulators are compared along climatic gradients in the Pacific Northwest. The ZELIG and FORCLIM models are tested against forest survey data from western Oregon. Their ability to generate accurate patterns of forest basal area and species composition is evaluated for series of sites with contrasting climate. Projections from both models approximate the basal area and composition patterns for three sites along the elevation gradient at H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in the western Cascade Range. The ZELIG model is somewhat more accurate than FORCLIM at the two low-elevation sites. Attempts to project forest composition along broader climatic gradients reveal limitations of ZELIG, however. For example, ZELIG is less accurate than FORCLIM at projecting the average composition of a west Cascades ecoregion selected for intensive analysis. Also, along a gradient consisting of several sites on an east to west transect at 44.1oN latitude, both the FORCLIM model and the actual data show strong changes in composition and total basal area, but the ZELIG model shows a limited response. ZELIG does not simulate the declines in forest basal area and the diminished dominance of mesic coniferous species east of the Cascade crest. We conclude that ZELIG is suitable for analyses of certain sites for which it has been calibrated. FORCLIM can be applied in analyses involving a range of climatic conditions without requiring calibration for specific sites.

Evaluation of Soil Loss and Erosion Control Measures on Ranges and Range Structures at Installations in Temperate Climates

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-01

Soil Loss Equation ( USLE ) and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) continue to be widely accepted methods for estimating sediment loss...range areas. Therefore, a generalized design methodology using the Universal Soil Loss Equation ( USLE ) is presented to accommodate the variations...constructed use the slope most suitable to the area topography (3:1 or 4:1). Step 4: Using the Universal Soil Loss equation, USLE , find the values of A

Pet snakes illegally marketed in Brazil: Climatic viability and establishment risk.

PubMed

Fonseca, Érica; Solé, Mirco; Rödder, Dennis; de Marco, Paulo

2017-01-01

Invasive species are one among many threats to biodiversity. Brazil has been spared, generically, of several destructive invasive species. Reports of invasive snakes' populations are nonexistent, but the illegal pet trade might change this scenario. Despite the Brazilian laws forbid to import most animals, illegal trade is frequently observed and propagules are found in the wild. The high species richness within Brazilian biomes and accelerated fragmentation of natural reserves are a critical factors facilitating successful invasion. An efficient way to ease damages caused by invasive species is identifying potential invaders and consequent prevention of introductions. For the identification of potential invaders many factors need to be considered, including estimates of climate matching between areas (native vs. invaded). Ecological niche modelling has been widely used to predict potential areas for invasion and is an important tool for conservation biology. This study evaluates the potential geographical distribution and establishment risk of Lampropeltis getula (Linnaeus, 1766), Lampropeltis triangulum (Lacépède, 1789), Pantherophis guttatus (Linnaeus, 1766), Python bivittatus Kuhl, 1820 and Python regius (Shaw, 1802) through the Maximum Entropy modelling approach to estimate the potential distribution of the species within Brazil and qualitative evaluation of specific biological attributes. Our results suggest that the North and Midwest regions harbor major suitable areas. Furthermore, P. bivittatus and P. guttatus were suggested to have the highest invasive potential among the analyzed species. Potentially suitable areas for these species were predicted within areas which are highly relevant for Brazilian biodiversity, including several conservation units. Therefore, these areas require special attention and preventive measures should be adopted.

Pet snakes illegally marketed in Brazil: Climatic viability and establishment risk

PubMed Central

Rödder, Dennis; de Marco, Paulo

2017-01-01

Invasive species are one among many threats to biodiversity. Brazil has been spared, generically, of several destructive invasive species. Reports of invasive snakes’ populations are nonexistent, but the illegal pet trade might change this scenario. Despite the Brazilian laws forbid to import most animals, illegal trade is frequently observed and propagules are found in the wild. The high species richness within Brazilian biomes and accelerated fragmentation of natural reserves are a critical factors facilitating successful invasion. An efficient way to ease damages caused by invasive species is identifying potential invaders and consequent prevention of introductions. For the identification of potential invaders many factors need to be considered, including estimates of climate matching between areas (native vs. invaded). Ecological niche modelling has been widely used to predict potential areas for invasion and is an important tool for conservation biology. This study evaluates the potential geographical distribution and establishment risk of Lampropeltis getula (Linnaeus, 1766), Lampropeltis triangulum (Lacépède, 1789), Pantherophis guttatus (Linnaeus, 1766), Python bivittatus Kuhl, 1820 and Python regius (Shaw, 1802) through the Maximum Entropy modelling approach to estimate the potential distribution of the species within Brazil and qualitative evaluation of specific biological attributes. Our results suggest that the North and Midwest regions harbor major suitable areas. Furthermore, P. bivittatus and P. guttatus were suggested to have the highest invasive potential among the analyzed species. Potentially suitable areas for these species were predicted within areas which are highly relevant for Brazilian biodiversity, including several conservation units. Therefore, these areas require special attention and preventive measures should be adopted. PMID:28817630

[Impacts of climate change on food production in Gansu: A review].

PubMed

Yang, Feng-ke; He, Bao-lin; Gao, Shi-ming

2015-03-01

The climate of Gansu turned to be overall warming-drying and partly warming-wetting since 1986. In contrast to that of 1960, the average annual temperature had raised by 1.1°C with the average annual precipitation decreased by 28 mm correspondingly, which made the arid region expanded southward by 50 km in 2010. Climate warming increased the growth period effective accumulated temperature of main food grain crops and lengthened the crop growth period. It changed crop maturity, crop disposition, cropping system and generally increased the cultivatable area and planting altitude above the sea level of major crops and expanded northward the multiple cropping system, which further resulted in expansion of autumn grain crop sown area, shrink of summer grain crop sown area, and replacement of strong winter early maturing varieties by weak winter middle late maturing varieties. It benefited the crop yield by increasing the use efficiency of photo-thermal resources. Warming-wetting climate increased the climate productivity of oasis crop while warming-drying weather decreased the climate productivity of rainfed crops, which were mostly determined by the precipitation regimes and water conditions. Any advanced technique that can increase precipitation use ratio and water use efficiency as well as improve and promote soil quality and fertility should be regarded as an effective countermeasure to increase food grain production under climate change in Gsansu. So, selecting and breeding new crop varieties with the characteristics of strong resistance, weak winter, middle-late mature and high water use efficiency, establishing new planting structure and cropping system that suitable to the precipitation and temperature features of changed climate, are the development direction of food grain production in Gansu to cope with the climate change.

Modelling both dominance and species distribution provides a more complete picture of changes to mangrove ecosystems under climate change.

PubMed

Crase, Beth; Vesk, Peter A; Liedloff, Adam; Wintle, Brendan A

2015-08-01

Dominant species influence the composition and abundance of other species present in ecosystems. However, forecasts of distributional change under future climates have predominantly focused on changes in species distribution and ignored possible changes in spatial and temporal patterns of dominance. We develop forecasts of spatial changes for the distribution of species dominance, defined in terms of basal area, and for species occurrence, in response to sea level rise for three tree taxa within an extensive mangrove ecosystem in northern Australia. Three new metrics are provided, indicating the area expected to be suitable under future conditions (Eoccupied ), the instability of suitable area (Einstability ) and the overlap between the current and future spatial distribution (Eoverlap ). The current dominance and occurrence were modelled in relation to a set of environmental variables using boosted regression tree (BRT) models, under two scenarios of seedling establishment: unrestricted and highly restricted. While forecasts of spatial change were qualitatively similar for species occurrence and dominance, the models of species dominance exhibited higher metrics of model fit and predictive performance, and the spatial pattern of future dominance was less similar to the current pattern than was the case for the distributions of species occurrence. This highlights the possibility of greater changes in the spatial patterning of mangrove tree species dominance under future sea level rise. Under the restricted seedling establishment scenario, the area occupied by or dominated by a species declined between 42.1% and 93.8%, while for unrestricted seedling establishment, the area suitable for dominance or occurrence of each species varied from a decline of 68.4% to an expansion of 99.5%. As changes in the spatial patterning of dominance are likely to cause a cascade of effects throughout the ecosystem, forecasting spatial changes in dominance provides new and complementary information in addition to that provided by forecasts of species occurrence. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on disease vectors through ecological niche modelling.

PubMed

Carvalho, B M; Rangel, E F; Vale, M M

2017-08-01

Vector-borne diseases are exceptionally sensitive to climate change. Predicting vector occurrence in specific regions is a challenge that disease control programs must meet in order to plan and execute control interventions and climate change adaptation measures. Recently, an increasing number of scientific articles have applied ecological niche modelling (ENM) to study medically important insects and ticks. With a myriad of available methods, it is challenging to interpret their results. Here we review the future projections of disease vectors produced by ENM, and assess their trends and limitations. Tropical regions are currently occupied by many vector species; but future projections indicate poleward expansions of suitable climates for their occurrence and, therefore, entomological surveillance must be continuously done in areas projected to become suitable. The most commonly applied methods were the maximum entropy algorithm, generalized linear models, the genetic algorithm for rule set prediction, and discriminant analysis. Lack of consideration of the full-known current distribution of the target species on models with future projections has led to questionable predictions. We conclude that there is no ideal 'gold standard' method to model vector distributions; researchers are encouraged to test different methods for the same data. Such practice is becoming common in the field of ENM, but still lags behind in studies of disease vectors.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

PubMed

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

2015-01-01

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios

PubMed Central

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

2015-01-01

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981–2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011–2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas. PMID:26496438

An integrated approach for the assessment of the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus global spatial distribution, and determination of the zones susceptible to the development of Zika virus.

PubMed

Santos, José; Meneses, Bruno M

2017-04-01

The Zika virus, one of the new epidemic diseases, is reported to have affected millions of people in the past year. The suitable climate conditions of the areas where Zika virus has been reported, especially in areas with a high population density, are the main cause of the current outbreak and spread of the disease. Indeed, the suitable climatic conditions of certain territories constitute perfect breading nest for the propagation and outbreak of worldwide diseases. The main objective of this research is to analyze the global distribution and predicted areas of both mosquitoes Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus which are the main vectors of Zika virus. Physical (SRTM) and climatic variables (WorldClim) were used to obtain the susceptibility maps based on the optimum conditions for the development of these mosquitoes. The susceptibility model was developed using a Species Distribution Model - correlative model, namely the Maximum Entropy, that used as input the spatial references of both vectors (Dryad Digital Repository). The results show the most important classes of each independent variable used in assessing the presence of each species of mosquitoes and the areas susceptible to the presence of these vector species. It turns out that Ae. aegypti has greater global dispersion than the Ae. albopictus specie, although two common regions stand out as the most prone to the presence of both mosquito species (tropical and subtropical zones). The crossing of these areas of greater susceptibility with areas of greater population density (e.g. India, China, Se of USA and Brazil) shows some agreement, and these areas stand out due to the presence of several records of Zika virus (HealthMap Project). In this sense, through the intersection of susceptibility and human exposure the areas with increased risk of development and spread of Zika virus are pinpointed, suggesting that there may be a new outbreak of this virus in these places, if preventive measures are not adopted. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Studying of Forests Potentials for Introducing of Mediterranean Industrial Woody Species to Desertification Combating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahdavi Najafabadi, R.; Khajeddin, S. J.; Sofyanian, A. R.; Karimzadeh, H. R.; Rezaei, M.

2009-04-01

Most of arid and semiarid parts of the world suffer from great lack of forest land. Therefore taking a good care of these forest lands quantity and quality and control of renewable natural resources is very important. Zagroass forests are located in semiarid parts of Iran. The main purpose of this research is to determine the potential habitat of forest olive for Chaharmahal va Bakhtiary using GIS. This province has a total area of 1653300 hectars. The main steps of this project are as follows: collecting data and maps, digitizing topographic maps with scale of 1:25000, and developing maps of slope, elevation levels, aspect, climatic classification. Regretion analysis was performed on the climatic data and the gradian equations were developed with a high R2 value. Using these equations the following maps were developed. For the whole province: isothermal, isoheytal, abs. max isothermal, relative humidity relative humidity of dry months. Soil maps were also digitized and the information system suitable for this study was developed. Using this bank the following layers were made: land units, soil depth, two soil textures, EC, pH, CaCo3. The following layers were made using digitized data, land use hydraulic network, lake and marsh land. Considering ecological needs of olive and extracting them from all diferent layers using boolean method. The layers showing suitable locations for planting olive(olea europea) was made. One of these maps includes all types of soils suitable for planting olive and the other excludes silty clay loam soils which are not so suitable. The total area achived was 9500 hectars in the whole province and the area excluding silty clay loam soils was determined to be 900 hectars. Using RS information and GIS technology in these types of projects can increase accuracy specialy including some more layers is recommended.

The agro-ecological suitability of Atriplex nummularia and A. halimus for biomass production in Argentine saline drylands.

PubMed

Falasca, Silvia Liliana; Pizarro, María José; Mezher, Romina Nahir

2014-09-01

The choice of the best species to cultivate in semi-arid and arid climates is of fundamental importance, and is determined by many factors, including temperature and rainfall, soil type, water availability for irrigation and crop purposes. Soil or water salinity represents one of the major causes of crop stress. Species of the genus Atriplex are characterized by high biomass productivity, high tolerance to drought and salinity, and high efficiency in use of solar radiation and water. Based on a search of the international literature, the authors outline an agro-climatic zoning model to determine potential production areas in Argentina for Atriplex halimus and Atriplex numularia. Using the agroclimatic limits presented in this work, this model may be applied to any part of the world. When superimposed on the saline areas map, the agroclimatic map shows the suitability of agro-ecological zoning for both species for energy purposes on land unsuitable for food production. This innovative study was based on the implementation of a geographic information system that can be updated by further incorporation of complementary information, with consequent improvement of the original database.

The agro-ecological suitability of Atriplex nummularia and A. halimus for biomass production in Argentine saline drylands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falasca, Silvia Liliana; Pizarro, María José; Mezher, Romina Nahir

2014-09-01

The choice of the best species to cultivate in semi-arid and arid climates is of fundamental importance, and is determined by many factors, including temperature and rainfall, soil type, water availability for irrigation and crop purposes. Soil or water salinity represents one of the major causes of crop stress. Species of the genus Atriplex are characterized by high biomass productivity, high tolerance to drought and salinity, and high efficiency in use of solar radiation and water. Based on a search of the international literature, the authors outline an agro-climatic zoning model to determine potential production areas in Argentina for Atriplex halimus and Atriplex numularia. Using the agroclimatic limits presented in this work, this model may be applied to any part of the world. When superimposed on the saline areas map, the agroclimatic map shows the suitability of agro-ecological zoning for both species for energy purposes on land unsuitable for food production. This innovative study was based on the implementation of a geographic information system that can be updated by further incorporation of complementary information, with consequent improvement of the original database.

Can constructed wetlands treat wastewater for reuse in agriculture? Review of guidelines and examples in South Europe.

PubMed

Lavrnić, Stevo; Mancini, Maurizio L

2016-01-01

South Europe is one of the areas negatively affected by climate change. Issues with water shortage are already visible, and are likely to increase. Since agriculture is the biggest freshwater consumer, it is important to find new water sources that could mitigate the climate change impact. In order to overcome problems and protect the environment, a better approach towards wastewater management is needed. That includes an increase in the volume of wastewater that is treated and a paradigm shift towards a more sustainable system where wastewater is actually considered as a resource. This study evaluates the potential of constructed wetlands (CWs) to treat domestic wastewater and produce effluent that will be suitable for reuse in agriculture. In South Europe, four countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) have national standards that regulate wastewater reuse in agriculture. Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) that are based on CWs in these four countries were analysed and their effluents compared with the quality needed for reuse. In general, it was found that CWs have trouble reaching the strictest standards, especially regarding microbiological parameters. However, their effluents are found to be suitable for reuse in areas that do not require water of the highest quality.

Modelling Hotspots for Invasive Alien Plants in India.

PubMed

Adhikari, Dibyendu; Tiwary, Raghuvar; Barik, Saroj Kanta

2015-01-01

Identification of invasion hotspots that support multiple invasive alien species (IAS) is a pre-requisite for control and management of invasion. However, till recently it remained a methodological challenge to precisely determine such invasive hotspots. We identified the hotspots of alien species invasion in India through Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) using species occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). The predicted area of invasion for selected species were classified into 4 categories based on number of model agreements for a region i.e. high, medium, low and very low. About 49% of the total geographical area of India was predicted to be prone to invasion at moderate to high levels of climatic suitability. The intersection of anthropogenic biomes and ecoregions with the regions of 'high' climatic suitability was classified as hotspot of alien plant invasion. Nineteen of 47 ecoregions of India, harboured such hotspots. Most ecologically sensitive regions of India, including the 'biodiversity hotspots' and coastal regions coincide with invasion hotspots, indicating their vulnerability to alien plant invasion. Besides demonstrating the usefulness of ENM and open source data for IAS management, the present study provides a knowledge base for guiding the formulation of an effective policy and management strategy for controlling the invasive alien species.

Impact Assessment of Pine Wilt Disease Using the Species Distribution Model and the CLIMEX Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KIM, J. U.; Jung, H.

2016-12-01

The plant disease triangle consists of the host plant, pathogen and environment, but their interaction has not been considered in climate change adaptation policy. Our objectives are to predict the changes of a coniferous forest, pine wood nematodes (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) and pine sawyer beetles (Monochamus spp.), which is a cause of pine wilt disease in the Republic of Korea. We analyzed the impact of pine wilt disease on climate change by using the species distribution model (SDM) and the CLIMEX model. Area of coniferous forest will decline and move to northern and high-altitude area. But pine wood nematodes and pine sawyer beetles are going to spread because they are going to be in a more favorable environment in the future. Coniferous forests are expected to have high vulnerability because of the decrease in area and the increase in the risk of pine wilt disease. Such changes to forest ecosystems will greatly affect climate change in the future. If effective and appropriate prevention and control policies are not implemented, coniferous forests will be severely damaged. An adaptation policy should be created in order to protect coniferous forests from the viewpoint of biodiversity. Thus we need to consider the impact assessment of climate change for establishing an effective adaptation policy. The impact assessment of pine wilt disease using a plant disease triangle drew suitable results to support climate change adaptation policy.

Potential risk levels of invasive Neoleucinodes elegantalis (small tomato borer) in areas optimal for open-field Solanum lycopersicum (tomato) cultivation in the present and under predicted climate change.

PubMed

da Silva, Ricardo Siqueira; Kumar, Lalit; Shabani, Farzin; Picanço, Marcelo Coutinho

2017-03-01

Neoleucinodes elegantalis is one of the major insect pests of Solanum lycopersicum. Currently, N. elegantalis is present only in America and the Caribbean, and is a threat in the world's largest S. lycopersicum-producing countries. In terms of potential impact on agriculture, the impact of climate change on insect invasions must be a concern. At present, no research exists regarding the effects of climatic change on the risk level of N. elegantalis. The purpose of this study was to develop a model for S. lycopersicum and N. elegantalis, utilizing CLIMEX to determine risk levels of N. elegantalis in open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation in the present and under projected climate change, using the global climate model CSIRO-Mk3.0. Large areas are projected to be suitable for N. elegantalis and optimal for open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation at the present time. However, in the future these areas will become unsuitable for both species. Conversely, other regions in the future may become optimal for open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation, with a varying risk level for N. elegantalis. The risk level results presented here provide a useful tool to design strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of N. elegantalis in open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Abundance of the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) With Special Reference to North America and Europe.

PubMed

Kistner, Erica Jean

2017-12-08

The invasive brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål; Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), has recently emerged as a harmful pest of horticultural crops in North America and Europe. Native to East Asia, this highly polyphagous insect is spreading rapidly worldwide. Climate change will add further complications to managing this species in terms of both geographic distribution and population growth. This study used CLIMEX to compare potential H. halys distribution under recent and future climate models using one emission scenario (A2) with two different global circulation models, CSIRO Mk3.0 and MIROC-H. Simulated changes in seasonal phenology and voltinism were examined. Under the possible future climate scenarios, suitable range in Europe expands northward. In North America, the suitable H. halys range shifts northward into Canada and contracts from its southern temperature range limits in the United States due to increased heat stress. Prolonged periods of warm temperatures resulted in longer H. halys growing seasons. However, future climate scenarios indicated that rising summer temperatures decrease H. halys growth potential compared to recent climatic conditions, which in turn, may reduce mid-summer crop damage. Climate change may increase the number of H. halys generations produced annually, thereby enabling the invasive insect to become multivoltine in the northern latitudes of North America and Europe where it is currently reported to be univoltine. These results indicate prime horticultural production areas in Europe, the northeastern United States, and southeastern Canada are at greatest risk from H. halys under both current and possible future climates. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2017. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Effect of Climate Change on Mediterranean Winter Ranges of Two Migratory Passerines

PubMed Central

Tellería, José L.; Fernández-López, Javier; Fandos, Guillermo

2016-01-01

We studied the effect of climate change on the distribution of two insectivorous passerines (the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis and the chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita) in wintering grounds of the Western Mediterranean basin. In this region, precipitation and temperature can affect the distribution of these birds through direct (thermoregulation costs) or indirect effects (primary productivity). Thus, it can be postulated that projected climate changes in the region will affect the extent and suitability of their wintering grounds. We studied pipit and chiffchaff abundance in several hundred localities along a belt crossing Spain and Morocco and assessed the effects of climate and other geographical and habitat predictors on bird distribution. Multivariate analyses reported a positive effect of temperature on the present distribution of the two species, with an additional effect of precipitation on the meadow pipit. These climate variables were used with Maxent to model the occurrence probabilities of species using ring recoveries as presence data. Abundance and occupancy of the two species in the study localities adjusted to the distribution models, with more birds in sectors of high climate suitability. After validation, these models were used to forecast the distribution of climate suitability according to climate projections for 2050–2070 (temperature increase and precipitation reduction). Results show an expansion of climatically suitable sectors into the highlands by the effect of warming on the two species, and a retreat of the meadow pipit from southern sectors related to rain reduction. The predicted patterns show a mean increase in climate suitability for the two species due to the warming of the large highland expanses typical of the western Mediterranean. PMID:26761791

Climate Change Amplifications of Climate-Fire Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariani, Michela; Holz, Andrés.; Veblen, Thomas T.; Williamson, Grant; Fletcher, Michael-Shawn; Bowman, David M. J. S.

2018-05-01

Recent changes in trend and variability of the main Southern Hemisphere climate modes are driven by a variety of factors, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, changes in tropical sea surface temperature, and stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery. One of the most important implications for climatic change is its effect via climate teleconnections on natural ecosystems, water security, and fire variability in proximity to populated areas, thus threatening human lives and properties. Only sparse and fragmentary knowledge of relationships between teleconnections, lightning strikes, and fire is available during the observed record within the Southern Hemisphere. This constitutes a major knowledge gap for undertaking suitable management and conservation plans. Our analysis of documentary fire records from Mediterranean and temperate regions across the Southern Hemisphere reveals a critical increased strength of climate-fire teleconnections during the onset of the 21st century including a tight coupling between lightning-ignited fire occurrences, the upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode, and rising temperatures across the Southern Hemisphere.

Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald Madden, Eve; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; Martin, Tara G.

2011-01-01

Managed relocation is a controversial climate-adaptation strategy to combat negative climate change impacts on biodiversity. While the scientific community debates the merits of managed relocation1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12, species are already being moved to new areas predicted to be more suitable under climate change13,14. To inform these moves, we construct a quantitative decision framework to evaluate the timing of relocation in the face of climate change. We find that the optimal timing depends on many factors, including the size of the population, the demographic costs of translocation and the expected carrying capacities over time in the source and destination habitats. In some settings, such as when a small population would benefit from time to grow before risking translocation losses, haste is ill advised. We also find that active adaptive management15,16 is valuable when the effect of climate change on source habitat is uncertain, and leads to delayed movement.

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, locations that may be unusually buffered from climate change effects so as to increase persistence of valued resources. Here we distinguish between paleoecological and contemporary viewpoints, characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia, summarize the process of identifying and mapping them, and delineate how refugia can fit into the existing framework of natural resource management. We also suggest three primary courses of action at these sites: prioritization, protection, and propagation. Although not a panacea, managing climate change refugia can be an important adaptation option for conserving valuable resources in the face of ongoing and future climate change. “In a nutshell” (100 words) • Climate change refugia are defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, enabling persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources. • Refugia can be incorporated as key components of a climate adaptation strategy because their prioritization by management may enable their associated resources to persist locally and eventually spread to future suitable habitat. • Steps for

Water Management Strategy in Assessing the Water Scarcity in Northern Western Region of Nile Delta, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mabrouk, Badr; Arafa, Salah; Gemajl, Khaled

2015-04-01

Sustainable development in the Nile Delta of Egypt is retarded by serious environmental problems, where land-use and land-cover of the region are subjected to continuous changes; including shoreline changes either by erosion or accretion, subsidence of the delta, as well as by sea level rise due to climate change. The current research attempts to; (1) study the vulnerability of the northern western region of the Nile Delta coastal zone to climate change/sea level rise while setting basic challenges, review adaptation strategies based on adaptation policy framework, and highlight recommended programs for preparedness to climate change, (2) study the scarcity of water resources in the area of study with review of the socioeconomic impacts and the critical need of establishing desalination plants with new standards assessing the environmental situation and population clusters, and (3) monitor of the brine water extracted from the desalination plants and injected to subsurface strata. This monitoring process is divided into 3 main directions: 1) studying the chemical characteristics of water extracted from the water desalinations plants qualitatively and quantitatively. 2) mapping the subsurface of which that brine water will be injected to it and the flow directions and effects using resistivity data, and 3) using GIS and suitable numerical models in order to study the effect, volume, flow of the brine water and its long term environmental impacts on the area. The results indicate that the area is particularly vulnerable to the impact of SLR, salt water intrusion, the deterioration of coastal tourism and the impact of extreme dust storms. This in turn will directly affect the agricultural productivity and human settlements in coastal zones. The paper presents different scenarios for water management and recommends the most suitable scenarios in order to establish a core for water management strategy in the region according to existing socio-economic and environmental situations. Key words: Nile Delta, climate change, socioeconomic, sea level rise, groundwater monitoring, GIS

Assessing the multi-scale predictive ability of ecosystem functional attributes for species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Arenas-Castro, Salvador; Gonçalves, João; Alves, Paulo; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Honrado, João P

2018-01-01

Global environmental changes are rapidly affecting species' distributions and habitat suitability worldwide, requiring a continuous update of biodiversity status to support effective decisions on conservation policy and management. In this regard, satellite-derived Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) offer a more integrative and quicker evaluation of ecosystem responses to environmental drivers and changes than climate and structural or compositional landscape attributes. Thus, EFAs may hold advantages as predictors in Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and for implementing multi-scale species monitoring programs. Here we describe a modelling framework to assess the predictive ability of EFAs as Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) against traditional datasets (climate, land-cover) at several scales. We test the framework with a multi-scale assessment of habitat suitability for two plant species of conservation concern, both protected under the EU Habitats Directive, differing in terms of life history, range and distribution pattern (Iris boissieri and Taxus baccata). We fitted four sets of SDMs for the two test species, calibrated with: interpolated climate variables; landscape variables; EFAs; and a combination of climate and landscape variables. EFA-based models performed very well at the several scales (AUCmedian from 0.881±0.072 to 0.983±0.125), and similarly to traditional climate-based models, individually or in combination with land-cover predictors (AUCmedian from 0.882±0.059 to 0.995±0.083). Moreover, EFA-based models identified additional suitable areas and provided valuable information on functional features of habitat suitability for both test species (narrowly vs. widely distributed), for both coarse and fine scales. Our results suggest a relatively small scale-dependence of the predictive ability of satellite-derived EFAs, supporting their use as meaningful EBVs in SDMs from regional and broader scales to more local and finer scales. Since the evaluation of species' conservation status and habitat quality should as far as possible be performed based on scalable indicators linking to meaningful processes, our framework may guide conservation managers in decision-making related to biodiversity monitoring and reporting schemes.

Climate as a driver of tropical insular diversity: comparative phylogeography of two ecologically distinctive frogs in Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Barker, Brittany S.; Rodríguez-Robles, Javier A.; Cook, Joseph A.

2014-01-01

The effects of late Quaternary climate on distributions and evolutionary dynamics of insular species are poorly understood in most tropical archipelagoes. We used ecological niche models under past and current climate to derive hypotheses regarding how stable climatic conditions shaped genetic diversity in two ecologically distinctive frogs in Puerto Rico. Whereas the Mountain Coquí, Eleutherodactylus portoricensis, is restricted to montane forest in the Cayey and Luquillo Mountains, the Red-eyed Coquí, E. antillensis, is a habitat generalist distributed across the entire Puerto Rican Bank (Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, excluding St. Croix). To test our hypotheses, we conducted phylogeographic and population genetic analyses based on mitochondrial and nuclear loci of each species across their range in Puerto Rico. Patterns of population differentiation in E. portoricensis, but not in E. antillensis, supported our hypotheses. For E. portoricensis, these patterns include: individuals isolated by long-term unsuitable climate in the Río Grande de Loíza Basin in eastern Puerto Rico belong to different genetic clusters; past and current climate strongly predicted genetic differentiation; and Cayey and Luquillo Mountains populations split prior to the last interglacial. For E. antillensis, these patterns include: genetic clusters did not fully correspond to predicted long-term unsuitable climate; and past and current climate weakly predicted patterns of genetic differentiation. Genetic signatures in E. antillensis are consistent with a recent range expansion into western Puerto Rico, possibly resulting from climate change and anthropogenic influences. As predicted, regions with a large area of long-term suitable climate were associated with higher genetic diversity in both species, suggesting larger and more stable populations. Finally, we discussed the implications of our findings for developing evidence-based management decisions for E. portoricensis, a taxon of special concern. Our findings illustrate the role of persistent suitable climatic conditions in promoting the persistence and diversification of tropical island organisms. PMID:26508809

Climate as a driver of tropical insular diversity: comparative phylogeography of two ecologically distinctive frogs in Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Barker, Brittany S; Rodríguez-Robles, Javier A; Cook, Joseph A

2015-08-01

The effects of late Quaternary climate on distributions and evolutionary dynamics of insular species are poorly understood in most tropical archipelagoes. We used ecological niche models under past and current climate to derive hypotheses regarding how stable climatic conditions shaped genetic diversity in two ecologically distinctive frogs in Puerto Rico. Whereas the Mountain Coquí, Eleutherodactylus portoricensis , is restricted to montane forest in the Cayey and Luquillo Mountains, the Red-eyed Coquí, E. antillensis , is a habitat generalist distributed across the entire Puerto Rican Bank (Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, excluding St. Croix). To test our hypotheses, we conducted phylogeographic and population genetic analyses based on mitochondrial and nuclear loci of each species across their range in Puerto Rico. Patterns of population differentiation in E. portoricensis , but not in E. antillensis , supported our hypotheses. For E. portoricensis , these patterns include: individuals isolated by long-term unsuitable climate in the Río Grande de Loíza Basin in eastern Puerto Rico belong to different genetic clusters; past and current climate strongly predicted genetic differentiation; and Cayey and Luquillo Mountains populations split prior to the last interglacial. For E. antillensis , these patterns include: genetic clusters did not fully correspond to predicted long-term unsuitable climate; and past and current climate weakly predicted patterns of genetic differentiation. Genetic signatures in E. antillensis are consistent with a recent range expansion into western Puerto Rico, possibly resulting from climate change and anthropogenic influences. As predicted, regions with a large area of long-term suitable climate were associated with higher genetic diversity in both species, suggesting larger and more stable populations. Finally, we discussed the implications of our findings for developing evidence-based management decisions for E. portoricensis , a taxon of special concern. Our findings illustrate the role of persistent suitable climatic conditions in promoting the persistence and diversification of tropical island organisms.

Climatic niche conservatism and biogeographical non-equilibrium in Eschscholzia californica (Papaveraceae), an invasive plant in the Chilean Mediterranean region.

PubMed

Peña-Gómez, Francisco T; Guerrero, Pablo C; Bizama, Gustavo; Duarte, Milén; Bustamante, Ramiro O

2014-01-01

Species climate requirements are useful for predicting their geographic distribution. It is often assumed that the niche requirements for invasive plants are conserved during invasion, especially when the invaded regions share similar climate conditions. California and central Chile have a remarkable degree of convergence in their vegetation structure, and a similar Mediterranean climate. Such similarities make these geographic areas an interesting natural experiment for testing climatic niche dynamics and the equilibrium of invasive species in a new environment. We tested to see if the climatic niche of Eschscholzia californica is conserved in the invaded range (central Chile), and we assessed whether the invasion process has reached a biogeographical equilibrium, i.e., occupy all the suitable geographic locations that have suitable conditions under native niche requirements. We compared the climatic niche in the native and invaded ranges as well as the projected potential geographic distribution in the invaded range. In order to compare climatic niches, we conducted a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Species Distribution Models (SDMs), to estimate E. californica's potential geographic distribution. We also used SDMs to predict altitudinal distribution limits in central Chile. Our results indicated that the climatic niche occupied by E. californica in the invaded range is firmly conserved, occupying a subset of the native climatic niche but leaving a substantial fraction of it unfilled. Comparisons of projected SDMs for central Chile indicate a similarity, yet the projection from native range predicted a larger geographic distribution in central Chile compared to the prediction of the model constructed for central Chile. The projected niche occupancy profile from California predicted a higher mean elevation than that projected from central Chile. We concluded that the invasion process of E. californica in central Chile is consistent with climatic niche conservatism but there is potential for further expansion in Chile.

Using sensitive montane amphibian species as indicators of hydroclimatic change in meadow ecosystems of the Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peek, R.; Viers, J.; Yarnell, S. M.

2012-12-01

Climate change can affect sensitive species and ecosystems in many ways, yet sparse data and the inability to apply various climate models at functional spatial scales often prevents relevant research from being utilized in conservation management plans. Climate change has been linked to declines and disturbances in a multitude of species and habitats, and in California, one of the greatest climatic concerns is the predicted reduction in mountain snowpack and associated snowmelt. These decreases in natural storage of water as snow in mountain regions can affect the timing and variability of critical snowmelt runoff periods—important seasonal signals that species in montane ecosystems have evolved life history strategies around—leading to greater intra-annual variability and diminished summer and fall stream flows. Although many species distribution models exist, few provide ways to integrate continually updated and revised Global Climate Models (GCMs), hydrologic data unique to a watershed, and ecological responses that can be incorporated into conservation strategies. This study documents a novel and applicable method of combining boosted regression tree (BRT) modeling and species distributions with hydroclimatic data as a potential management tool for conservation. Boosted regression trees are suitable for ecological distribution modeling because they can reduce both bias and variance, as well as handle sharp discontinuities common in sparsely sampled species or large study areas. This approach was used to quantify the effects of hydroclimatic changes on the distribution of key riparian-associated amphibian species in montane meadow habitats in the Sierra Nevada at the sub-watershed level. Based on modeling using current species range maps in conjunction with three climate scenarios (near, mid, and far), extreme range contractions were observed for all sensitive species (southern long-toed salamander, mountain yellow-legged frog, Yosemite toad) by the year 2100. Among many environmental and hydroclimatic variables used in the model, snowpack and snowmelt (runoff) variables were consistently among the most informative in predicting species occupancy. Few sub-watersheds contained greater than 50% probability of species occupancy throughout the modeled time period; however several core areas were identified as more resilient to climate change for each species. There was overlap among species in areas that were predicted to remain hydroclimatically stable, particularly in sub-watersheds that contain high meadow density. Quantifying these areas of habitat stability, or "resiliency", may ultimately be the most useful outcome of BRT modeling, with the flexibility to utilize multiple GCMs at varying scales. Ultimately managers need to consider both short term and long term conservation goals by identifying and protecting suitable habitat areas most resilient to climate change to give multiple species the best chance to persist. This approach provides a unique tool for conservation management which can be easily applied to a variety of data and species, and provides useful knowledge at both near and long term time scales.

Modelling the current and potential future distributions of the sunn pest Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae) using CLIMEX.

PubMed

Aljaryian, Rasha; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni

2016-10-01

The sunn pest, Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae), is an economically significant pest throughout Western Asia and Eastern Europe. This study was conducted to examine the possible risk posed by the influence of climate change on its spread. CLIMEX software was used to model its current global distribution. Future invasion potential was investigated using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Dry to temperate climatic areas favour sunn pests. The potential global range for E. integriceps is expected to extend further polewards between latitudes 60° N and 70° N. Northern Europe and Canada will be at risk of sunn pest invasion as cold stress boundaries recede under the emission scenarios of these models. However, current highly suitable areas, such as South Africa and central Australia, will contract where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially with increased heat stress. Estimating the sunn pest's potential geographic distribution and detecting its climatic limits can provide useful information for management strategies and allow biosecurity authorities to plan ahead and reduce the expected harmful economic consequences by identifying the new areas for pest invasion. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Regional climate models downscaling in the Alpine area with multimodel superensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cane, D.; Barbarino, S.; Renier, L. A.; Ronchi, C.

2013-05-01

The climatic scenarios show a strong signal of warming in the Alpine area already for the mid-XXI century. The climate simulations, however, even when obtained with regional climate models (RCMs), are affected by strong errors when compared with observations, due both to their difficulties in representing the complex orography of the Alps and to limitations in their physical parametrization. Therefore, the aim of this work is to reduce these model biases by using a specific post processing statistic technique, in order to obtain a more suitable projection of climate change scenarios in the Alpine area. For our purposes we used a selection of regional climate models (RCMs) runs which were developed in the framework of the ENSEMBLES project. They were carefully chosen with the aim to maximise the variety of leading global climate models and of the RCMs themselves, calculated on the SRES scenario A1B. The reference observations for the greater Alpine area were extracted from the European dataset E-OBS (produced by the ENSEMBLES project), which have an available resolution of 25 km. For the study area of Piedmont daily temperature and precipitation observations (covering the period from 1957 to the present) were carefully gridded on a 14 km grid over Piedmont region through the use of an optimal interpolation technique. Hence, we applied the multimodel superensemble technique to temperature fields, reducing the high biases of RCMs temperature field compared to observations in the control period. We also proposed the application of a brand new probabilistic multimodel superensemble dressing technique, already applied to weather forecast models successfully, to RCMS: the aim was to estimate precipitation fields, with careful description of precipitation probability density functions conditioned to the model outputs. This technique allowed for reducing the strong precipitation overestimation, arising from the use of RCMs, over the Alpine chain and to reproduce well the monthly behaviour of precipitation in the control period.

Climatic change on the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America) using two-step statistical downscaling of CMIP5 model outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribalaygua, Jaime; Gaitán, Emma; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert

2018-05-01

A two-step statistical downscaling method has been reviewed and adapted to simulate twenty-first-century climate projections for the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America, Pacific Coast) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models. The downscaling methodology is adjusted after looking for good predictor fields for this area (where the geostrophic approximation fails and the real wind fields are the most applicable). The method's performance for daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature is analysed and revealed suitable results for all variables. For instance, the method is able to simulate the characteristic cycle of the wet season for this area, which includes a mid-summer drought between two peaks. Future projections show a gradual temperature increase throughout the twenty-first century and a change in the features of the wet season (the first peak and mid-summer rainfall being reduced relative to the second peak, earlier onset of the wet season and a broader second peak).

Changes in the potential multiple cropping system in response to climate change in China from 1960-2010.

PubMed

Liu, Luo; Xu, Xinliang; Zhuang, Dafang; Chen, Xi; Li, Shuang

2013-01-01

The multiple cropping practice is essential to agriculture because it has been shown to significantly increase the grain yield and promote agricultural economic development. In this study, potential multiple cropping systems in China are calculated based on meteorological observation data by using the Agricultural Ecology Zone (AEZ) model. Following this, the changes in the potential cropping systems in response to climate change between the 1960s and the 2010s were subsequently analyzed. The results indicate that the changes of potential multiple cropping systems show tremendous heterogeneity in respect to the spatial pattern in China. A key finding is that the magnitude of change of the potential cropping systems showed a pattern of increase both from northern China to southern China and from western China to eastern China. Furthermore, the area found to be suitable only for single cropping decreased, while the area suitable for triple cropping increased significantly from the 1960s to the 2000s. During the studied period, the potential multiple cropping index (PMCI) gap between rain-fed and irrigated scenarios increased from 18% to 24%, which indicated noticeable growth of water supply limitations under the rain-fed scenario. The most significant finding of this research was that from the 1960s to the 2000s climate change had led to a significant increase of PMCI by 13% under irrigated scenario and 7% under rain-fed scenario across the whole of China. Furthermore, the growth of the annual mean temperature is identified as the main reason underlying the increase of PMCI. It has also been noticed that across China the changes of potential multiple cropping systems under climate change were different from region to region.

Projecting distribution of the overwintering population of Sogatella furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae), in Yunnan, China with analysis on key influencing climatic factors.

PubMed

Hu, Shao-Ji; Liu, Xiao-Fei; Fu, Da-Ying; Huang, Wei; Wang, Xue-Ying; Liu, Xiao-Jun; Lü, Jian-Ping; Ye, Hui

2015-01-01

Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) is the most threatening migratory rice pest in Yunnan, China. S. furcifera overwinters in low- altitude basins and valleys in southern Yunnan and migrates northward in spring and summer of the following year, causing serious damage during migration. The overwintering distribution, areas, and spatial pattern of S. furcifera are relevant to the migration and outbreak of this pest. Based on a 4-yr field survey (2010-2013), this study projected areas suitable for S. furcifera to overwinter using a species distribution model, and analyzed the key influencing climatic factors using principal component analysis (PCA) and ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA). Our field survey showed that the northern latitudinal- and upper elevation limits of overwintering S. furcifera was 25.4° N and 1,608 m in western Yunnan and 24.2° N and 1,563 m in eastern Yunnan. The species distribution model produced a fragmented distribution pattern, with most of which in western Yunnan and only a few in eastern Yunnan. The PCA and ENFA analyses showed that the mean temperature of the driest quarter and the precipitation of the coldest quarter significantly influenced the distribution of S. furcifera in winter. The results suggested that the complex topography, spatial differences in winter temperatures, and host availability altogether determined the distribution of overwintering S. furcifera. Compared with previous surveys, the northern latitudinal- and upper elevation limits of overwintering S. furcifera were higher, while the population became rarer in some suitable areas due to change of farmland utilization in winter and possibly climate change. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

An assessment of high carbon stock and high conservation value approaches to sustainable oil palm cultivation in Gabon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Austin, Kemen G.; Lee, Michelle E.; Clark, Connie; Forester, Brenna R.; Urban, Dean L.; White, Lee; Kasibhatla, Prasad S.; Poulsen, John R.

2017-01-01

Industrial-scale oil palm cultivation is rapidly expanding in Gabon, where it has the potential to drive economic growth, but also threatens forest, biodiversity and carbon resources. The Gabonese government is promoting an ambitious agricultural expansion strategy, while simultaneously committing to minimize negative environmental impacts of oil palm agriculture. This study estimates the extent and location of suitable land for oil palm cultivation in Gabon, based on an analysis of recent trends in plantation permitting. We use the resulting suitability map to evaluate two proposed approaches to minimizing negative environmental impacts: a High Carbon Stock (HCS) approach, which emphasizes forest protection and climate change mitigation, and a High Conservation Value (HCV) approach, which focuses on safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystems. We quantify the forest area, carbon stock, and biodiversity resources protected under each approach, using newly developed maps of priority species distributions and forest biomass for Gabon. We find 2.7-3.9 Mha of suitable or moderately suitable land that avoid HCS areas, 4.4 million hectares (Mha) that avoid HCV areas, and 1.2-1.7 Mha that avoid both. This suggests that Gabon’s oil palm production target could likely be met without compromising important ecosystem services, if appropriate safeguards are put in place. Our analysis improves understanding of suitability for oil palm in Gabon, determines how conservation strategies align with national targets for oil palm production, and informs national land use planning.

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Nakamura, Katsunori; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Kominami, Yuji; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Ohashi, Haruka; Takano, Kohei Takenaka; Takeuchi, Wataru; Matsui, Tetsuya

2017-01-01

Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD. PMID:28797067

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Hirata, Akiko; Nakamura, Katsunori; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Kominami, Yuji; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Ohashi, Haruka; Takano, Kohei Takenaka; Takeuchi, Wataru; Matsui, Tetsuya

2017-01-01

Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

Spatial distribution of Qinghai spruce forests and the thresholds of influencing factors in a small catchment, Qilian Mountains, northwest China.

PubMed

Yang, Wenjuan; Wang, Yanhui; Wang, Shunli; Webb, Ashley A; Yu, Pengtao; Liu, Xiande; Zhang, Xuelong

2017-07-17

Forest restoration in dryland mountainous areas is extremely difficult due to dry climate, complex topography and accelerating climate change. Thus, exact identification of suitable sites is required. This study at a small watershed of Qilian Mountains, Northwest China, aimed to determine the important factors and their thresholds limiting the spatial distribution of forests of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia), a locally dominant tree species. The watershed was divided into 342 spatial units. Their location, terrain and vegetation characteristics were recorded. Statistical analysis showed that the potential distribution area of Qinghai spruce forests is within an ellipse with the axes of elevation (from 2673.6 to 3202.2 m a.s.l.) and slope aspect (from -162.1° to 75.1° deviated from North). Within this ellipse, the forested sites have a soil thickness ≥40 cm, and slope positions of lower-slope, lower- or middle-slope, anywhere if the elevation is <2800, 2800-2900, >2900 m a.s.l, respectively. The corresponding mean annual air temperature at upper elevation boundary is -2.69 °C, while the mean annual precipitation at lower elevation boundary is 374 (331) mm within the small watershed (study area). The high prediction accuracy using these 4 factors can help to identify suitable sites and increase the success of afforestation.

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Rice Paddy as Influenced by Climate Change in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J.; Liu, Q.; Ma, L.; Hou, S.; Tao, B.

2014-12-01

The Sanjiang Plain is located in the eastern part of Heilongjiang Province, Northeastern China, and represents one of major agricultural regions nationwide. Over past decades, this region has seen intensive cropland reclamation and a sharp shrinkage of natural vegetation and water bodies, driven by not only policy-making and economic development, but also a warming climate. However, it still remains unclear how climate change has influenced the magnitude and spatial patterns of land use changes. In this study, we examined spatial and temporal variations of rice paddy planting area during 1980-2008 through an integration of the remote-sensing images, the census data, and other existing land use/cover data sets. The daily gridded climate data sets were generated by using an interpolation method of thin plate smoothing splines, based on observations from over 70 meteorological stations across the study area. Our results suggest that the rice paddy planting area increased by more than 10-fold during 1980-2008, with more obvious upward trends during two sub-periods, i.e. 1995-1998 and 2004-2008. Further analyses indicated that the rice paddy planting area accounted for approximately 20.3% of total cropland area in 2008, increasing more than seven-fold as compared to 1980. When investigating spatially, we found that the planting boundary of rice paddy expanded northward for roughly 2 degree, comparing to 1984 when most of rice paddies were found in the north of the 48o N. Most of increases of rice paddy planting area occurred in the northeast of the study region. The climate analyses showed a significant warming trend, with a slightly decrease in precipitation. During the study period, the suitable areas for rice production increased about 25% and expanded northward clearly. Our study demonstrated how climate change influenced the magnitude and spatial patterns of rice paddy planting area in the Sanjiang Plain, which could provide scientific information for the environmental assessment and related policy-making. It implies that climate change could result in substantial land use/cover changes through climate adaption strategies that humans adopted. While, how to compromise those adaption strategies and environmental sustainability (e.g., preserving water resources and biodiversity) need further invstigation.

Impacts of Landuse Management and Climate Change on Landslides Susceptibility over the Olympic Peninsula of Washington State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barik, M. G.; Adam, J. C.

2009-12-01

The commercial forests on the western side of the Olympic Mountains in Washington State are a region of steep slopes and high annual rainfall (2500-6000 mm/year) and are therefore highly susceptible to landslides. Potential climatic change (more intense and frequent winter storms) may exacerbate landslide susceptibility unless forest management practices are changed. As this area is a critical habitat for numerous organisms, including salmon, this may result in potentially severe consequences to riparian habitat due to increased sediment loads. Therefore, there is a need to investigate potential forest management plans to promote the economic viability of timber extraction while protecting the natural habitat, particularly in riparian areas. The objective of this study is to predict the long term effects of forest management decisions under projected climate change on slope stability. We applied the physically-based Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) with its sediment module to simulate mass wasting and sediment delivery under different vegetation and climate scenarios. Sub-basins were selected and classified according to elevation, slope, land cover and soil type. Various land management practices (such as clear-cutting in riparian areas, logging under short rotations, varying amount of timbers left intact in riparian areas) were applied to each of the selected sub-basins. DHSVM was used to simulate landslide volume, frequency, and sediment loads for each of the land cover applications under various future climate scenarios. We comment on the suitability of various harvesting techniques for different parts of the forest to minimize landslide-induced sediment loading to streams in an altered climate. This approach can be developed as a decision making tool that can be used by forest managers to make long-term planning decisions.

Future scenarios for viticultural bioclimatic indices in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, João.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Fraga, Helder; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2010-05-01

Winemaking has a predominant economic, social and environmental relevance in several European countries. Studies addressing the influence of climate variability and change in viticulture are particularly pertinent, as climate is one of the main conditioning factors of this activity. In this context, bioclimatic indices are a useful zoning tool, allowing the description of the suitability of a particular region for wine production. In this study, we compute climatic indices (concerning to thermal and hydrological conditions) for Europe, characterize regions with different viticultural aptitude, and assess possible variations in these regions under a future climate conditions using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (mostly daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation) obtained from the NCEP reanalysis dataset. Then, the same indices are calculated for present and future climate conditions using data from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small Scale Modelling - Climate Limited-area Modelling). Maps of theses indices for recent-past periods (1961-2008) and for the SRES A1B scenario are considered in order to identify significant changes in their patterns. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant negative impact in wine quality by increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during growing seasons in Southern European regions (e.g. Portugal, Spain and Italy). These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making crucial adaptation/mitigation strategies to be adopted. On the other hand, regions of western and central Europe (e.g. southern Britain, northern France and Germany) will benefit from this scenario both in wine quality, and in new potential areas for viticulture. This approach provides a macro-characterization of European areas where grapevines may preferentially grow, as well as their projected changes under human-induced forcing. As such, it can be a useful tool for viticultural zoning in a changing climate.

Using FEP's List and a PA Methodology for Evaluating Suitable Areas for the LLW Repository in Italy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Risoluti, P.; Ciabatti, P.; Mingrone, G.

2002-02-26

In Italy following a referendum held in 1987, nuclear energy has been phased out. Since 1998, a general site selection process covering the whole Italian territory has been under way. A GIS (Geographic Information System) methodology was implemented in three steps using the ESRI Arc/Info and Arc/View platforms. The screening identified approximately 0.8% of the Italian territory as suitable for locating the LLW Repository. 200 areas have been identified as suitable for the location of the LLW Repository, using a multiple exclusion criteria procedure (1:500,000), regional scale (1:100.000) and local scale (1:25,000-1:10,000). A methodology for evaluating these areas has beenmore » developed allowing, along with the evaluation of the long term efficiency of the engineered barrier system (EBS), the characterization of the selected areas in terms of physical and safety factors and planning factors. The first step was to identify, on a referenced FEPs list, a group of geomorphological, geological, hydrogeological, climatic and human behavior caused process and/or events, which were considered of importance for the site evaluation, taking into account the Italian situation. A site evaluation system was established ascribing weighted scores to each of these processes and events, which were identified as parameters of the new evaluation system. The score of each parameter is ranging from 1 (low suitability) to 3 (high suitability). The corresponding weight is calculated considering the effect of the parameter in terms of total dose to the critical group, using an upgraded AMBER model for PA calculation. At the end of the process an index obtained by a score weighted sum gives the degree of suitability of the selected areas for the LLW Repository location. The application of the methodology to two selected sites is given in the paper.« less

Slow and steady wins the race? Future climate and land use change leaves the imperiled Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) behind

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton, Christopher M.; Bateman, Brooke L.; Gorzo, Jessica M.; Reid, Brendan; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Peery, M. Zachariah; Heglund, Patricia J.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Pidgeon, Anna M.

2018-01-01

Climate change is accompanied by shifts in species distributions, as portions of current ranges become less suitable. Maintaining or improving landscape connectivity to facilitate species movements is a primary approach to mitigate the effects of climate change on biodiversity. However, it is not clear how ongoing changes in land use and climate may affect the existing connectivity of landscapes. We evaluated shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity for the imperiled Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) in Wisconsin using species distribution modeling in combination with different future scenarios of both land use change and climate change for the 2050s. We found that climate change had significant effects on both habitat suitability and connectivity, however, there was little difference in the magnitude of effects among different economic scenarios. Under both our low- and high-CO2 emissions scenarios, suitable habitat for the Blanding's turtle shifted northward. In the high-emissions scenario, almost no suitable habitat remained for Blanding's turtle in Wisconsin by the 2050s and there was up to a 100,000-fold increase in landscape resistance to turtle movement, suggesting the landscape essentially becomes impassable. Habitat loss and landscape resistance were exponentially greater in southern versus northern Wisconsin, indicating a strong trailing edge effect. Thus, populations at the southern edge of the range are likely to “fall behind” shifts in suitable habitat faster than northern populations. Given its limited dispersal capability, loss of suitable habitat may occur at a rate far faster than the Blanding's turtle can adjust to changing conditions via shifts in range.

Combining dispersal, landscape connectivity and habitat suitability to assess climate-induced changes in the distribution of Cunningham's skink, Egernia cunninghami.

PubMed

Ofori, Benjamin Y; Stow, Adam J; Baumgartner, John B; Beaumont, Linda J

2017-01-01

The ability of species to track their climate niche is dependent on their dispersal potential and the connectivity of the landscape matrix linking current and future suitable habitat. However, studies modeling climate-driven range shifts rarely address the movement of species across landscapes realistically, often assuming "unlimited" or "no" dispersal. Here, we incorporate dispersal rate and landscape connectivity with a species distribution model (Maxent) to assess the extent to which the Cunningham's skink (Egernia cunninghami) may be capable of tracking spatial shifts in suitable habitat as climate changes. Our model was projected onto four contrasting, but equally plausible, scenarios describing futures that are (relative to now) hot/wet, warm/dry, hot/with similar precipitation and warm/wet, at six time horizons with decadal intervals (2020-2070) and at two spatial resolutions: 1 km and 250 m. The size of suitable habitat was projected to decline 23-63% at 1 km and 26-64% at 250 m, by 2070. Combining Maxent output with the dispersal rate of the species and connectivity of the intervening landscape matrix showed that most current populations in regions projected to become unsuitable in the medium to long term, will be unable to shift the distance necessary to reach suitable habitat. In particular, numerous populations currently inhabiting the trailing edge of the species' range are highly unlikely to be able to disperse fast enough to track climate change. Unless these populations are capable of adaptation they are likely to be extirpated. We note, however, that the core of the species distribution remains suitable across the broad spectrum of climate scenarios considered. Our findings highlight challenges faced by philopatric species and the importance of adaptation for the persistence of peripheral populations under climate change.

Projected Climate Impacts to South African Maize and Wheat Production in 2055: A Comparison of Empirical and Mechanistic Modeling Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, Lyndon D.; Beukes, Hein; Bradley, Bethany A.; Debats, Stephanie R.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Ruane, Alex C.; Schulze, Roland; Tadross, Mark

2013-01-01

Crop model-specific biases are a key uncertainty affecting our understanding of climate change impacts to agriculture. There is increasing research focus on intermodel variation, but comparisons between mechanistic (MMs) and empirical models (EMs) are rare despite both being used widely in this field. We combined MMs and EMs to project future (2055) changes in the potential distribution (suitability) and productivity of maize and spring wheat in South Africa under 18 downscaled climate scenarios (9 models run under 2 emissions scenarios). EMs projected larger yield losses or smaller gains than MMs. The EMs' median-projected maize and wheat yield changes were 3.6% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to 6.5% and 15.2% for the MM. The EM projected a 10% reduction in the potential maize growing area, where the MM projected a 9% gain. Both models showed increases in the potential spring wheat production region (EM = 48%, MM = 20%), but these results were more equivocal because both models (particularly the EM) substantially overestimated the extent of current suitability. The substantial water-use efficiency gains simulated by the MMs under elevated CO2 accounted for much of the EMMM difference, but EMs may have more accurately represented crop temperature sensitivities. Our results align with earlier studies showing that EMs may show larger climate change losses than MMs. Crop forecasting efforts should expand to include EMMM comparisons to provide a fuller picture of crop-climate response uncertainties.

Spatial and ecological variation in dryland ecohydrological responses to climate change: implications for management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Palmquist, Kyle A.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.

2016-01-01

Ecohydrological responses to climate change will exhibit spatial variability and understanding the spatial pattern of ecological impacts is critical from a land management perspective. To quantify climate change impacts on spatial patterns of ecohydrology across shrub steppe ecosystems in North America, we asked the following question: How will climate change impacts on ecohydrology differ in magnitude and variability across climatic gradients, among three big sagebrush ecosystems (SB-Shrubland, SB-Steppe, SB-Montane), and among Sage-grouse Management Zones? We explored these potential changes for mid-century for RCP8.5 using a process-based water balance model (SOILWAT) for 898 big sagebrush sites using site- and scenario-specific inputs. We summarize changes in available soil water (ASW) and dry days, as these ecohydrological variables may be helpful in guiding land management decisions about where to geographically concentrate climate change mitigation and adaptation resources. Our results suggest that during spring, soils will be wetter in the future across the western United States, while soils will be drier in the summer. The magnitude of those predictions differed depending on geographic position and the ecosystem in question: Larger increases in mean daily spring ASW were expected for high-elevation SB-Montane sites and the eastern and central portions of our study area. The largest decreases in mean daily summer ASW were projected for warm, dry, mid-elevation SB-Montane sites in the central and west-central portions of our study area (decreases of up to 50%). Consistent with declining summer ASW, the number of dry days was projected to increase rangewide, but particularly for SB-Montane and SB-Steppe sites in the eastern and northern regions. Collectively, these results suggest that most sites will be drier in the future during the summer, but changes were especially large for mid- to high-elevation sites in the northern half of our study area. Drier summer conditions in high-elevation, SB-Montane sites may result in increased habitat suitability for big sagebrush, while those same changes will likely reduce habitat suitability for drier ecosystems. Our work has important implications for where land managers should prioritize resources for the conservation of North American shrub steppe plant communities and the species that depend on them.

A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

USGS Publications Warehouse

López-Carr, David; Pricope, Narcisa G.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Jankowska, Marta M.; Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.

2014-01-01

We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

Modeling the present and future geographic distribution of the Lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum (Ixodida: Ixodidae), in the continental United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Springer, Yuri P.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Barnett, David T.; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Eisen, Rebecca J.

2015-01-01

The Lone star tick (Amblyomma americanum L.) is the primary vector for pathogens of significant public health importance in North America, yet relatively little is known about its current and potential future distribution. Building on a published summary of tick collection records, we used an ensemble modeling approach to predict the present-day and future distribution of climatically suitable habitat for establishment of the Lone star tick within the continental United States. Of the nine climatic predictor variables included in our five present-day models, average vapor pressure in July was by far the most important determinant of suitable habitat. The present-day ensemble model predicted an essentially contiguous distribution of suitable habitat extending to the Atlantic coast east of the 100th western meridian and south of the 40th northern parallel, but excluding a high elevation region associated with the Appalachian Mountains. Future ensemble predictions for 2061–2080 forecasted a stable western range limit, northward expansion of suitable habitat into the Upper Midwest and western Pennsylvania, and range contraction along portions of the Gulf coast and the lower Mississippi river valley. These findings are informative for raising awareness of A. americanum-transmitted pathogens in areas where the Lone Star tick has recently or may become established.

Predicted extinction of unique genetic diversity in marine forests of Cystoseira spp.

PubMed

Buonomo, Roberto; Chefaoui, Rosa M; Lacida, Ricardo Bermejo; Engelen, Aschwin H; Serrão, Ester A; Airoldi, Laura

2018-07-01

Climate change is inducing shifts in species ranges across the globe. These can affect the genetic pools of species, including loss of genetic variability and evolutionary potential. In particular, geographically enclosed ecosystems, like the Mediterranean Sea, have a higher risk of suffering species loss and genetic erosion due to barriers to further range shifts and to dispersal. In this study, we address these questions for three habitat-forming seaweed species, Cystoseira tamariscifolia, C. amentacea and C. compressa, throughout their entire ranges in the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions. We aim to 1) describe their population genetic structure and diversity, 2) model the present and predict the future distribution and 3) assess the consequences of predicted future range shifts for their population genetic structure, according to two contrasting future climate change scenarios. A net loss of suitable areas was predicted in both climatic scenarios across the range of distribution of the three species. This loss was particularly severe for C. amentacea in the Mediterranean Sea (less 90% in the most extreme climatic scenario), suggesting that the species could become potentially at extinction risk. For all species, genetic data showed very differentiated populations, indicating low inter-population connectivity, and high and distinct genetic diversity in areas that were predicted to become lost, causing erosion of unique evolutionary lineages. Our results indicated that the Mediterranean Sea is the most threatened region, where future suitable Cystoseira habitats will become more limited. This is likely to have wider ecosystem impacts as there is a lack of species with the same ecological niche and functional role in the Mediterranean. The projected accelerated loss of already fragmented and disturbed populations and the long-term genetic effects highlight the urge for local scale management strategies that sustain the capacity of these habitat-forming species to persist despite climatic impacts while waiting for global emission reductions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global Tree Range Shifts Under Forecasts from Two Alternative GCMs Using Two Future Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hargrove, W. W.; Kumar, J.; Potter, K. M.; Hoffman, F. M.

2013-12-01

Global shifts in the environmentally suitable ranges of 215 tree species were predicted under forecasts from two GCMs (the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and the Hadley Model), each under two IPCC future climatic scenarios (A1 and B1), each at two future dates (2050 and 2100). The analysis considers all global land surface at a resolution of 4 km2. A statistical multivariate clustering procedure was used to quantitatively delineate 30 thousand environmentally homogeneous ecoregions across present and 8 potential future global locations at once, using global maps of 17 environmental characteristics describing temperature, precipitation, soils, topography and solar insolation. Presence of each tree species on Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) plots and in Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) samples was used to select a subset of suitable ecoregions from the full set of 30 thousand. Once identified, this suitable subset of ecoregions was compared to the known current range of the tree species under present conditions. Predicted present ranges correspond well with current understanding for all but a few of the 215 tree species. The subset of suitable ecoregions for each tree species can then be tracked into the future to determine whether the suitable home range for this species remains the same, moves, grows, shrinks, or disappears under each model/scenario combination. Occurrence and growth performance measurements for various tree species across the U.S. are limited to FIA plots. We present a new, general-purpose empirical imputation method which associates sparse measurements of dependent variables with particular multivariate clustered combinations of the independent variables, and then estimates values for unmeasured clusters, based on directional proximity in multidimensional data space, at both the cluster and map-cell levels of resolution. Using Associative Clustering, we scaled up the FIA point measurements into contonuous maps that show the expected growth and suitability for individual tree species across the continental US. Maps were generated for each tree species showing the Minimum Required Movement (MRM) straight-line distance from each currently suitable location to the geographically nearest "lifeboat" location having suitable conditions in the future. Locations that are the closest "lifeboats" for many MRM propagules originating from wide surrounding areas may constitute high-priority preservation targets as a refugium against climatic change.

Past and predicted future effects of housing growth on open space conservation opportunity areas and habitat connectivity around National Wildlife Refuges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton, Christopher M.; Baumann, Matthias; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Helmers, David P.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Radeloff, Volker C.

2016-01-01

ContextHousing growth can alter suitability of matrix habitats around protected areas, strongly affecting movements of organisms and, consequently, threatening connectivity of protected area networks.ObjectivesOur goal was to quantify distribution and growth of housing around the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System. This is important information for conservation planning, particularly given promotion of habitat connectivity as a climate change adaptation measure.MethodsWe quantified housing growth from 1940 to 2000 and projected future growth to 2030 within three distances from refuges, identifying very low housing density open space, “opportunity areas” (contiguous areas with <6.17 houses/km2), both nationally and by USFWS administrative region. Additionally, we quantified number and area of habitat corridors within these opportunity areas in 2000.ResultsOur results indicated that the number and area of open space opportunity areas generally decreased with increasing distance from refuges and with the passage of time. Furthermore, total area in habitat corridors was much lower than in opportunity areas. In addition, the number of corridors sometimes exceeded number of opportunity areas as a result of habitat fragmentation, indicating corridors are likely vulnerable to land use change. Finally, regional differences were strong and indicated some refuges may have experienced so much housing growth already that they are effectively too isolated to adapt to climate change, while others may require extensive habitat restoration work.ConclusionsWildlife refuges are increasingly isolated by residential housing development, potentially constraining the movement of wildlife and, therefore, their ability to adapt to a changing climate.

GIS-based agroecological assessment of land suitability for food crop development at a regional scale: A study case of Buton Island.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramlan, A.; Baja, S.; Arif, S.; Neswati, R.

2018-05-01

Agriculture has long become a prime sector for regional development in Buton Island, although local government emphasis on perennial crops. Food crop have been developed in very limited land areas, mainly on transmigration areas, as parts of central government programs. Today, the central government has launched a national strategic program on food self-sufficiency and has imposed the local government to optimize available land for cultivating food crop. The primary aim of study is to develop rapid assessment on a spatial basis using GIS for agricultural land suitability evaluation of agriculture commodities, i.e., rice (irrigated paddy field, rainfed rice) and corn (Zea maize L.). The study was undertaken using the following procedures: (i) conducting reconnaissance soil survey based on land units; (ii) constructing soil database in a GIS; and (iii) classifying land suitability using the FAO method. Spatial data were generated from digital topographic map, soil survey, soil characteristics, as well as climate data. Preliminary results indicate that quite large area available for food crop cultivation both in the context of land suitability (mostly in S2 and S3 classes) and land availability. All data bases were managed in GIS, then it is amenable to various operations in GIS to accommodate possible additional assessment including socio-economic and policy assessment.

Evaluating Habitat Suitability for the Establishment of Monochamus spp. through Climate-Based Niche Modeling

PubMed Central

Estay, Sergio A.; Labra, Fabio A.; Sepulveda, Roger D.; Bacigalupe, Leonardo D.

2014-01-01

Pine sawyer beetle species of the genus Monochamus are vectors of the nematode pest Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. The introduction of these species into new habitats is a constant threat for those regions where the forestry industry depends on conifers, and especially on species of Pinus. To obtain information about the potential risk of establishment of these insects in Chile, we performed climate-based niche modeling using data for five North American and four Eurasian Monochamus species using a Maxent approach. The most important variables that account for current distribution of these species are total annual precipitation and annual and seasonal average temperatures, with some differences between North American and Eurasian species. Projections of potential geographic distribution in Chile show that all species could occupy at least 37% of the area between 30° and 53°S, where industrial plantations of P. radiata are concentrated. Our results indicated that Chile seems more suitable for Eurasian than for North American species. PMID:25019408

Development of climate risk services under climate change scenarios in the North Adriatic coast (Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Anna, Sperotto; Elisa, Furlan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

2014-05-01

Nowadays, the challenge for coastal stakeholders and decision makers is to incorporate climate change in land and policy planning in order to ensure a sustainable integrated coastal zone management aimed at preserve coastal environments and socio-economic activities. Consequently, an increasing amount of information on climate variability and its impact on human and natural ecosystem is requested. Climate risk services allows to bridge the gap between climate experts and decision makers communicating timely science-based information about impacts and risks related to climate change that could be incorporated into land planning, policy and practice. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), a participatory Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was applied for the evaluation of water-related hazards in coastal areas (i.e. pluvial flood and sea-level rise inundation risks) taking into consideration future climate change scenarios in the case study of the North Adriatic Sea for the period 2040-2050. Specifically, through the analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk and the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the RRA methodology allowed to identify and prioritize targets (i.e. residential and commercial-industrial areas, beaches, infrastructures, wetlands, agricultural typology) and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood and sea-level rise impacts in the same region. From the early stages of the climate risk services development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the needs, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders dealing with the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), by means of questionnaires, workshops and focus groups organized within the project. Specifically, stakeholders were asked to provide their needs in terms of time scenarios, geographical scale and resolution, choice of receptors, vulnerability factors and thresholds that were considered in the implementation of the RRA methodology. The main output of the analysis are climate risk products produced with the DEcision support SYstem for COastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) and represented by GIS-based maps and statistics of hazard, exposure, physical and environmental vulnerability, risk and damage. These maps are useful to transfer information about climate change impacts to stakeholders and decision makers, to allow the classification and prioritization of areas that are likely to be affected by climate change impacts more severely than others in the same region, and therefore to support the identification of suitable areas for infrastructure, economic activities and human settlements toward the development of regional adaptation plans. The climate risk products and the results of North Adriatic case study will be here presented and discussed.

Biogeography of boreal passerine range dynamics in western North America: past, present, and future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stralberg, Diana; Matsuoka, Steven M.; Handel, Colleen M.; Schmiegelow, Fiona K.A.; Hamann, Andreas; Bayne, Erin M.

2017-01-01

Many of the Neotropical migrant bird species that breed throughout the Canadian boreal region are not found in the Alaskan boreal region, separated by the northwestern cordilleran mountains, despite the presence of climatically suitable habitat. We asked whether biological or climatic factors constrain certain species from crossing this geographic barrier. Analyzing a comprehensive dataset for 80 boreal passerine species, we used phylogenetic logistic regression to evaluate the relative importance of physical, migratory and competition metrics versus current and paleoclimatic suitability factors. Controlling for current climatic suitability within boreal Alaska, we found that species with the greatest climatic suitability across the northwestern cordillera, presently and also during the mid-Holocene period, were most likely to be regular breeders in the Alaskan boreal region. Migratory strategy also played a role, but could not be disentangled from its strong phylogenetic basis. Our analysis suggests that the perceived barrier of the northwestern cordillera may be easily weakened as climate change improves conditions there for many forest species. The weakening of this barrier may lead to relatively rapid range expansions and the reshuffling of species communities. Species’ realized distributional shifts will be a function of the interplay between a changing climate and static topographic features.

Dispersal and extrapolation on the accuracy of temporal predictions from distribution models for the Darwin's frog.

PubMed

Uribe-Rivera, David E; Soto-Azat, Claudio; Valenzuela-Sánchez, Andrés; Bizama, Gustavo; Simonetti, Javier A; Pliscoff, Patricio

2017-07-01

Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity; the development of models that reliably predict its effects on species distributions is a priority for conservation biogeography. Two of the main issues for accurate temporal predictions from Species Distribution Models (SDM) are model extrapolation and unrealistic dispersal scenarios. We assessed the consequences of these issues on the accuracy of climate-driven SDM predictions for the dispersal-limited Darwin's frog Rhinoderma darwinii in South America. We calibrated models using historical data (1950-1975) and projected them across 40 yr to predict distribution under current climatic conditions, assessing predictive accuracy through the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and True Skill Statistics (TSS), contrasting binary model predictions against temporal-independent validation data set (i.e., current presences/absences). To assess the effects of incorporating dispersal processes we compared the predictive accuracy of dispersal constrained models with no dispersal limited SDMs; and to assess the effects of model extrapolation on the predictive accuracy of SDMs, we compared this between extrapolated and no extrapolated areas. The incorporation of dispersal processes enhanced predictive accuracy, mainly due to a decrease in the false presence rate of model predictions, which is consistent with discrimination of suitable but inaccessible habitat. This also had consequences on range size changes over time, which is the most used proxy for extinction risk from climate change. The area of current climatic conditions that was absent in the baseline conditions (i.e., extrapolated areas) represents 39% of the study area, leading to a significant decrease in predictive accuracy of model predictions for those areas. Our results highlight (1) incorporating dispersal processes can improve predictive accuracy of temporal transference of SDMs and reduce uncertainties of extinction risk assessments from global change; (2) as geographical areas subjected to novel climates are expected to arise, they must be reported as they show less accurate predictions under future climate scenarios. Consequently, environmental extrapolation and dispersal processes should be explicitly incorporated to report and reduce uncertainties in temporal predictions of SDMs, respectively. Doing so, we expect to improve the reliability of the information we provide for conservation decision makers under future climate change scenarios. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

The shaping of genetic variation in edge-of-range populations under past and future climate change

PubMed Central

Razgour, Orly; Juste, Javier; Ibáñez, Carlos; Kiefer, Andreas; Rebelo, Hugo; Puechmaille, Sébastien J; Arlettaz, Raphael; Burke, Terry; Dawson, Deborah A; Beaumont, Mark; Jones, Gareth; Wiens, John

2013-01-01

With rates of climate change exceeding the rate at which many species are able to shift their range or adapt, it is important to understand how future changes are likely to affect biodiversity at all levels of organisation. Understanding past responses and extent of niche conservatism in climatic tolerance can help predict future consequences. We use an integrated approach to determine the genetic consequences of past and future climate changes on a bat species, Plecotus austriacus. Glacial refugia predicted by palaeo-modelling match those identified from analyses of extant genetic diversity and model-based inference of demographic history. Former refugial populations currently contain disproportionately high genetic diversity, but niche conservatism, shifts in suitable areas and barriers to migration mean that these hotspots of genetic diversity are under threat from future climate change. Evidence of population decline despite recent northward migration highlights the need to conserve leading-edge populations for spearheading future range shifts. PMID:23890483

The impacts of climate change on the wintering distribution of an endangered migratory bird.

PubMed

Hu, Junhua; Hu, Huijian; Jiang, Zhigang

2010-10-01

There is now ample evidence of the effects of anthropogenic climate change on the distribution and abundance of species. The black-faced spoonbill (Platalea minor) is an endangered migratory species and endemic to East Asia. Using a maximum entropy approach, we predicted the potential wintering distribution for spoonbills and modeled the effects of future climate change. Elevation, human influence index and precipitation during the coldest quarter contributed most to model development. Five regions, including western Taiwan, scattered locations from eastern coastal to central mainland China, coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea, northeastern coastal areas of Vietnam and sites along the coast of Japan, were found to have a high probability of presence and showed good agreement with historical records. Assuming no limits to the spread of this species, the wintering range is predicted to increase somewhat under a changing climate. However, three currently highly suitable regions (northeastern Vietnam, Taiwan and coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea) may face strong reductions in range by 2080. We also found that the center of the predicted range of spoonbills will undergo a latitudinal shift northwards by as much as 240, 450, and 600 km by 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively. Our findings suggest that species distribution modeling can inform the current and future management of the black-faced spoonbill throughout Asia. It is clear that a strong international strategy is needed to conserve spoonbill populations under a changing climate.

Why inputs matter: Selection of climatic variables for species distribution modelling in the Himalayan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobrowski, Maria; Schickhoff, Udo

2017-04-01

Betula utilis is a major constituent of alpine treeline ecotones in the western and central Himalayan region. The objective of this study is to provide first time analysis of the potential distribution of Betula utilis in the subalpine and alpine belts of the Himalayan region using species distribution modelling. Using Generalized Linear Models (GLM) we aim at examining climatic factors controlling the species distribution under current climate conditions. Furthermore we evaluate the prediction ability of climate data derived from different statistical methods. GLMs were created using least correlated bioclimatic variables derived from two different climate models: 1) interpolated climate data (i.e. Worldclim, Hijmans et al., 2005) and 2) quasi-mechanistical statistical downscaling (i.e. Chelsa; Karger et al., 2016). Model accuracy was evaluated by the ability to predict the potential species distribution range. We found that models based on variables of Chelsa climate data had higher predictive power, whereas models using Worldclim climate data consistently overpredicted the potential suitable habitat for Betula utilis. Although climatic variables of Worldclim are widely used in modelling species distribution, our results suggest to treat them with caution when remote regions like the Himalayan mountains are in focus. Unmindful usage of climatic variables for species distribution models potentially cause misleading projections and may lead to wrong implications and recommendations for nature conservation. References: Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S.E., Parra, J.L., Jones, P.G. & Jarvis, A. (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965-1978. Karger, D.N., Conrad, O., Böhner, J., Kawohl, T., Kreft, H., Soria-Auza, R.W., Zimmermann, N., Linder, H.P. & Kessler, M. (2016) Climatologies at high resolution for the earth land surface areas. arXiv:1607.00217 [physics].

Customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS): climate satisfaction evaluation based on subjective perception.

PubMed

Lin, Tzu-Ping; Yang, Shing-Ru; Matzarakis, Andreas

2015-12-01

Climate not only influences the behavior of people in urban environments but also affects people's schedules and travel plans. Therefore, providing people with appropriate long-term climate evaluation information is crucial. Therefore, we developed an innovative climate assessment system based on field investigations conducted in three cities located in Northern, Central, and Southern Taiwan. The field investigations included the questionnaire surveys and climate data collection. We first analyzed the relationship between the participants and climate parameters comprising physiologically equivalent temperature, air temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, cloud cover, and precipitation. Second, we established the neutral value, comfort range, and dissatisfied range of each parameter. Third, after verifying that the subjects' perception toward the climate parameters vary based on individual preferences, we developed the customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS) approach, which featured functions such as personalized and default climate suitability information to be used by users exhibiting varying demands. Finally, we performed calculations using the climate conditions of two cities during the past 10 years to demonstrate the performance of the CRACS approach. The results can be used as a reference when planning activities in the city or when organizing future travel plans. The flexibility of the assessment system enables it to be adjusted for varying regions and usage characteristics.

Customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS): climate satisfaction evaluation based on subjective perception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tzu-Ping; Yang, Shing-Ru; Matzarakis, Andreas

2015-12-01

Climate not only influences the behavior of people in urban environments but also affects people's schedules and travel plans. Therefore, providing people with appropriate long-term climate evaluation information is crucial. Therefore, we developed an innovative climate assessment system based on field investigations conducted in three cities located in Northern, Central, and Southern Taiwan. The field investigations included the questionnaire surveys and climate data collection. We first analyzed the relationship between the participants and climate parameters comprising physiologically equivalent temperature, air temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, cloud cover, and precipitation. Second, we established the neutral value, comfort range, and dissatisfied range of each parameter. Third, after verifying that the subjects' perception toward the climate parameters vary based on individual preferences, we developed the customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS) approach, which featured functions such as personalized and default climate suitability information to be used by users exhibiting varying demands. Finally, we performed calculations using the climate conditions of two cities during the past 10 years to demonstrate the performance of the CRACS approach. The results can be used as a reference when planning activities in the city or when organizing future travel plans. The flexibility of the assessment system enables it to be adjusted for varying regions and usage characteristics.

An approach for recreation suitability analysis to recreation planning in Gölcük Nature Park.

PubMed

Gül, Atila; Orücü, M Kamil; Karaca, Oznur

2006-05-01

Gölcük Nature Park (GNP) is an area protected by law in Turkey. It is an important nature park with rich flora, fauna, geomorphologic forms, landscape features, and recreational potential in the region. However, GNP does not have a recreation management plan. The purpose of this study was to determine the actual natural, cultural, and visual resources of GNP, determine the most suitable recreational sites with multiple factors, evaluate the demands and tendencies of visitors, and suggest recreational activities and facilities for the most suitable sites of GNP. However, it was also conceived as leading to a recreational plan and design of GNP in the future and identifying the entire appropriate and current data of GNP with the creation of various maps. This study used multifactor analysis to determine the most suitable recreation sites of GNP. Used recreation factors were established including degree of slope, proximity to water resources, accessibility, elevation, vegetation, soil, climate, aspect, current cultural facilities, visual values, and some limiting factors in accordance with the characteristics of GNP. Weighting and suitability values of factors were determined by 30 local expert surveys. All obtained data were evaluated and integrated in the Geographical Information Systems base. Obtained maps were overlapped. Thus, recreational suitability zones map were created manually. However, the demands and behaviours from visitor surveys in GNP were focused on the most suitable recreation sites of the park. Finally, 10% of GNP was identified as the most suitable sites for recreational use. Various recreational facilities and activities (including picnicking, sports facilities and playgrounds, camping sites, walking paths, food and local outlets, etc.) were recommended for nine of the most suitable areas on the proposed recreational map.

Climate Predictions Accelerate Decline for Threatened Macrozamia Cycads from Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

Laidlaw, Melinda J.; Forster, Paul I.

2012-01-01

Changes in the potential habitat of five allopatric species of threatened Macrozamia cycads under scenarios of increased ambient temperature were examined. A lack of seed dispersal, poor recruitment, low seedling survival, obligate pollinator mutualisms and continued habitat loss have led to extant populations being largely restricted to refugia. Models predict that the area of suitable habitat will further contract and move upslope, resulting in a reduced incidence within protected areas with increasing annual mean temperature. Areas of potential habitat for all five species are also predicted to become increasingly isolated from one another, further reducing the exchange between metapopulations and subpopulations, exacerbating existing threatening processes. PMID:24832522

Exploring tree species colonization potentials using a spatially explicit simulation model: implications for four oaks under climate change

Treesearch

Anantha M. Prasad; Judith D. Gardiner; Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew Peters

2013-01-01

Climate change impacts tree species differentially by exerting unique pressures and altering their suitable habitats. We previously predicted these changes in suitable habitat for current and future climates using a species habitat model (DISTRIB) in the eastern United States. Based on the accuracy of the model, the species assemblages should eventually reflect the new...

Modelling Hotspots for Invasive Alien Plants in India

PubMed Central

Adhikari, Dibyendu; Tiwary, Raghuvar; Barik, Saroj Kanta

2015-01-01

Identification of invasion hotspots that support multiple invasive alien species (IAS) is a pre-requisite for control and management of invasion. However, till recently it remained a methodological challenge to precisely determine such invasive hotspots. We identified the hotspots of alien species invasion in India through Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) using species occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). The predicted area of invasion for selected species were classified into 4 categories based on number of model agreements for a region i.e. high, medium, low and very low. About 49% of the total geographical area of India was predicted to be prone to invasion at moderate to high levels of climatic suitability. The intersection of anthropogenic biomes and ecoregions with the regions of 'high' climatic suitability was classified as hotspot of alien plant invasion. Nineteen of 47 ecoregions of India, harboured such hotspots. Most ecologically sensitive regions of India, including the 'biodiversity hotspots' and coastal regions coincide with invasion hotspots, indicating their vulnerability to alien plant invasion. Besides demonstrating the usefulness of ENM and open source data for IAS management, the present study provides a knowledge base for guiding the formulation of an effective policy and management strategy for controlling the invasive alien species. PMID:26230513

Pleistocene climatic oscillations in Neotropical open areas: Refuge isolation in the rodent Oxymycterus nasutus endemic to grasslands

PubMed Central

Peçanha, Willian T.; Althoff, Sergio L.; Galiano, Daniel; Quintela, Fernando M.; Maestri, Renan; Freitas, Thales R. O.

2017-01-01

Pleistocene climatic oscillations favoured the expansion of grassland ecosystems and open vegetation landscapes throughout the Neotropics, and influenced the evolutionary history of species adapted to such environments. In this study, we sampled populations of the rodent Oxymycterus nasutus endemic to open areas in the Pampas and Atlantic Forest biomes to assess the tempo and mode of population divergence using an integrative approach, including coalescence theory, ecological niche models, and morphometry. Our results indicated that these O. nasutus populations exhibited high levels of genetic structure. Six major mtDNA clades were found, structuring these biomes into distinct groups. Estimates of their divergence times was indicated to be 0.571 myr. The high degree of genetic structure is reflected in the analyses of geometric morphometric; skull differences between lineages in the two ecoregions were detected. During the last glacial maximum, there was a strong increase in suitable abiotic conditions for O. nasutus. Distinct molecular markers revealed a population expansion over time, with a possible demographic retraction during the post-glacial period. Considering that all clades coalesce with the last interglacial maximum, our results indicated that reduction in suitable conditions during this period may have resulted in a possible vicariance associated with refuge isolation. PMID:29176839

High Resolution Habitat Suitability Modelling For Restricted-Range Hawaiian Alpine Arthropod Species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenson, N. M.

2016-12-01

Mapping potentially suitable habitat is critical for effective species conservation and management but can be challenging in areas exhibiting complex heterogeneity. An approach that combines non-intrusive spatial data collection techniques and field data can lead to a better understanding of landscapes and species distributions. Nysius wekiuicola, commonly known as the wēkiu bug, is the most studied arthropod species endemic to the Maunakea summit in Hawai`i, yet details about its geographic distribution and habitat use remain poorly understood. To predict the geographic distribution of N. wekiuicola, MaxEnt habitat suitability models were generated from a diverse set of input variables, including fifteen years of species occurrence data, high resolution digital elevation models, surface mineralogy maps derived from hyperspectral remote sensing, and climate data. Model results indicate that elevation (78.2 percent), and the presence of nanocrystalline hematite surface minerals (13.7 percent) had the highest influence, with lesser contributions from aspect, slope, and other surface mineral classes. Climatic variables were not included in the final analysis due to auto-correlation and coarse spatial resolution. Biotic factors relating to predation and competition also likely dictate wēkiu bug capture patterns and influence our results. The wēkiu bug range and habitat suitability models generated as a result of this study will be directly incorporated into management and restoration goals for the summit region and can also be adapted for other arthropod species present, leading to a more holistic understanding of metacommunity dynamics. Key words: Microhabitat, Structure from Motion, Lidar, MaxEnt, Habitat Suitability

Wildlife habitat connectivity in the changing climate of New York's Hudson Valley.

PubMed

Howard, Timothy G; Schlesinger, Matthew D

2013-09-01

Maintaining and restoring connectivity are key adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation under climate change. We present a novel combination of species distribution and connectivity modeling using current and future climate regimes to prioritize connections among populations of 26 rare species in New York's Hudson Valley. We modeled patches for each species for each time period and modeled potential connections among habitat patches by finding the least-cost path for every patch-to-patch connection. Finally, we aggregated these patches and paths to the tax parcel, commonly the primary unit of conservation action. Under future climate regimes, suitable habitat was predicted to contract or appear upslope and farther north. On average, predicted patches were nine times smaller and paths were twice as long under future climate. Parcels within the Hudson Highlands, Shawangunk Ridge, Catskill Mountains, and Harlem Valley had high species overlap, with areas upslope and northward increasing in importance over time. We envision that land managers and conservation planners can use these results to help prioritize parcel-level conservation and management and thus support biodiversity adaptation to climate change. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

Climate change and wildfire around southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimura, K.

2013-12-01

When the climate change in southern Africa is analyzed, the effects of rainfall by Inter Tropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) and cyclone are important. In this study, the rainfall patterns are analyzed with synoptic analysis. The southern limit of ITCZ is around the arid zone around Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. This zone has some effects of both ITCZ and extratropical cyclones by season. As well as this, the eastern part of this area has heavy rainfall by the cyclone from the Indian Ocean once in several years. In the other hand, a lot of wildfire occurs in this area. The main cause of the wildfire is anthropogenic misbehavior of the fire by the slash-and-burn agriculture. Recently we can find the wildfire detected with the satellite imagery like Terra/Aqua MODIS. We can compare the weather environment and the wildfire occurrence with Geographical Information System. We have tried making the fire weather index suitable for the southern African semi-arid area.

Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation.

PubMed

Schroth, Götz; Läderach, Peter; Martinez-Valle, Armando Isaac; Bunn, Christian; Jassogne, Laurence

2016-06-15

The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty of future projections of species distributions in mountainous regions.

PubMed

Tang, Ying; Winkler, Julie A; Viña, Andrés; Liu, Jianguo; Zhang, Yuanbin; Zhang, Xiaofeng; Li, Xiaohong; Wang, Fang; Zhang, Jindong; Zhao, Zhiqiang

2018-01-01

Multiple factors introduce uncertainty into projections of species distributions under climate change. The uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information used to calibrate a species distribution model and to downscale global climate model (GCM) simulations to a finer spatial resolution is a particular concern for mountainous regions, as the spatial resolution of climate observing networks is often insufficient to detect the steep climatic gradients in these areas. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling framework together with occurrence data on 21 understory bamboo species distributed across the mountainous geographic range of the Giant Panda, we examined the differences in projected species distributions obtained from two contrasting sources of baseline climate information, one derived from spatial interpolation of coarse-scale station observations and the other derived from fine-spatial resolution satellite measurements. For each bamboo species, the MaxEnt model was calibrated separately for the two datasets and applied to 17 GCM simulations downscaled using the delta method. Greater differences in the projected spatial distributions of the bamboo species were observed for the models calibrated using the different baseline datasets than between the different downscaled GCM simulations for the same calibration. In terms of the projected future climatically-suitable area by species, quantification using a multi-factor analysis of variance suggested that the sum of the variance explained by the baseline climate dataset used for model calibration and the interaction between the baseline climate data and the GCM simulation via downscaling accounted for, on average, 40% of the total variation among the future projections. Our analyses illustrate that the combined use of gridded datasets developed from station observations and satellite measurements can help estimate the uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information to the projected changes in species distribution.

Uncertainty of future projections of species distributions in mountainous regions

PubMed Central

Tang, Ying; Viña, Andrés; Liu, Jianguo; Zhang, Yuanbin; Zhang, Xiaofeng; Li, Xiaohong; Wang, Fang; Zhang, Jindong; Zhao, Zhiqiang

2018-01-01

Multiple factors introduce uncertainty into projections of species distributions under climate change. The uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information used to calibrate a species distribution model and to downscale global climate model (GCM) simulations to a finer spatial resolution is a particular concern for mountainous regions, as the spatial resolution of climate observing networks is often insufficient to detect the steep climatic gradients in these areas. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling framework together with occurrence data on 21 understory bamboo species distributed across the mountainous geographic range of the Giant Panda, we examined the differences in projected species distributions obtained from two contrasting sources of baseline climate information, one derived from spatial interpolation of coarse-scale station observations and the other derived from fine-spatial resolution satellite measurements. For each bamboo species, the MaxEnt model was calibrated separately for the two datasets and applied to 17 GCM simulations downscaled using the delta method. Greater differences in the projected spatial distributions of the bamboo species were observed for the models calibrated using the different baseline datasets than between the different downscaled GCM simulations for the same calibration. In terms of the projected future climatically-suitable area by species, quantification using a multi-factor analysis of variance suggested that the sum of the variance explained by the baseline climate dataset used for model calibration and the interaction between the baseline climate data and the GCM simulation via downscaling accounted for, on average, 40% of the total variation among the future projections. Our analyses illustrate that the combined use of gridded datasets developed from station observations and satellite measurements can help estimate the uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information to the projected changes in species distribution. PMID:29320501

Climate, copepods and seabirds in the boreal Northeast Atlantic - current state and future outlook.

PubMed

Frederiksen, Morten; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Beaugrand, Grégory; Wanless, Sarah

2013-02-01

The boreal Northeast Atlantic is strongly affected by current climate change, and large shifts in abundance and distribution of many organisms have been observed, including the dominant copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which supports the grazing food web and thus many fish populations. At the same time, large-scale declines have been observed in many piscivorous seabirds, which depend on abundant small pelagic fish. Here, we combine predictions from a niche model of C. finmarchicus with long-term data on seabird breeding success to link trophic levels. The niche model shows that environmental suitability for C. finmarchicus has declined in southern areas with large breeding seabird populations (e.g. the North Sea), and predicts that this decline is likely to spread northwards during the 21st century to affect populations in Iceland and the Faroes. In a North Sea colony, breeding success of three common piscivorous seabird species [black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), common guillemot (Uria aalge) and Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica)] was strongly positively correlated with local environmental suitability for C. finmarchicus, whereas this was not the case at a more northerly colony in west Norway. Large seabird populations seem only to occur where C. finmarchicus is abundant, and northward distributional shifts of common boreal seabirds are therefore expected over the coming decades. Whether or not population size can be maintained depends on the dispersal ability and inclination of these colonial breeders, and on the carrying capacity of more northerly areas in a warmer climate. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Climate suitability for the transmission of Dirofilaria immitis and D. repens in Germany.

PubMed

Sassnau, R; Daugschies, A; Lendner, M; Genchi, C

2014-09-15

Recently concerns are increasing that dirofilarial nematodes may spread from endemic areas in southern, eastern and central Europe to countries in northern regions of Europe. The increasing number of autochthonous cases of canine Dirofilaria repens infections in Germany indicates that worms of this genus may invade new areas, and climate change may be a key factor in this scenario. Thus analysis of long term development of regional temperature is a pivotal factor in risk analysis related to transmission of these worms. Such information is important for suggestions of counteracting strategies, such as definition of periods of increased transmission risk and, consequently, time slots most suited for preventative measures. In this study, mean daily temperature data from 34 geographical clustered weather stations representing all parts of Germany were analyzed. It is concluded that the increasing trend for average daily temperatures observed in the period from 1984 to 2013 has led to climatic conditions that allow the completion of dirofilarial life cycles in large parts of Germany between May and October. Autochthonous infection with D. repens is already established in some regions and targeted diagnosis and medical prophylaxis is advisable for dogs assumedly exposed during risk of transmission periods. It appears likely that global warming will support further spread of D. repens. Furthermore for the population of dogs the spread of the more pathogenic species D. immitis in hitherto non-endemic Germany is a potential risk if mean temperatures rise to a level suitable for parasite development in the abundant vector mosquitoes during the warmer seasons. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A GIS model predicting potential distributions of a lineage: a test case on hermit spiders (Nephilidae: Nephilengys).

PubMed

Năpăruş, Magdalena; Kuntner, Matjaž

2012-01-01

Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters. We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World), N. livida (Madagascar), N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia), and N. papuana (Australasia). For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range), a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread), and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (sub)tropics. Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential distributions of globally distributed terrestrial lineages. Its predictive potential may be tested in foreseeing species distribution shifts due to habitat destruction and global climate change.

A GIS Model Predicting Potential Distributions of a Lineage: A Test Case on Hermit Spiders (Nephilidae: Nephilengys)

PubMed Central

Năpăruş, Magdalena; Kuntner, Matjaž

2012-01-01

Background Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters. Methodology/Principal Findings We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World), N. livida (Madagascar), N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia), and N. papuana (Australasia). For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range), a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread), and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (sub)tropics. Conclusions Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential distributions of globally distributed terrestrial lineages. Its predictive potential may be tested in foreseeing species distribution shifts due to habitat destruction and global climate change. PMID:22238692

Coming to Terms with the Concept of Moving Species Threatened by Climate Change – A Systematic Review of the Terminology and Definitions

PubMed Central

Hällfors, Maria H.; Vaara, Elina M.; Hyvärinen, Marko; Oksanen, Markku; Schulman, Leif E.; Siipi, Helena; Lehvävirta, Susanna

2014-01-01

Intentional moving of species threatened by climate change is actively being discussed as a conservation approach. The debate, empirical studies, and policy development, however, are impeded by an inconsistent articulation of the idea. The discrepancy is demonstrated by the varying use of terms, such as assisted migration, assisted colonisation, or managed relocation, and their multiple definitions. Since this conservation approach is novel, and may for instance lead to legislative changes, it is important to aim for terminological consistency. The objective of this study is to analyse the suitability of terms and definitions used when discussing the moving of organisms as a response to climate change. An extensive literature search and review of the material (868 scientific publications) was conducted for finding hitherto used terms (N = 40) and definitions (N = 75), and these were analysed for their suitability. Based on the findings, it is argued that an appropriate term for a conservation approach relating to aiding the movement of organisms harmed by climate change is assisted migration defined as follows: Assisted migration means safeguarding biological diversity through the translocation of representatives of a species or population harmed by climate change to an area outside the indigenous range of that unit where it would be predicted to move as climate changes, were it not for anthropogenic dispersal barriers or lack of time. The differences between assisted migration and other conservation translocations are also discussed. A wide adoption of the clear and distinctive term and definition provided would allow more focused research on the topic and enable consistent implementation as practitioners could have the same understanding of the concept. PMID:25055023

Climate, niche, ticks, and models: what they are and how we should interpret them.

PubMed

Estrada-Peña, Agustín

2008-12-01

Ticks spend most of their life cycle in the environment, and all tick life cycle stages are dependent on a complex combination of climate variables. Furthermore, host availability and vegetation significantly modulate the dynamics of tick populations. Tick recruitment is dependent on successful reproduction, which in turn requires sufficient adult tick densities, available blood meal sources, and egg survival. Though many animals can serve as hosts, there are several determinants of host suitability. For example, host availability in time and space is an important determinant of tick bionomics. Shelter and protection from environmental extremes are critical to tick survival. Questing and diapausing ticks are vulnerable to extremes of temperature and humidity. There are concerns about how predicted climate change may alter several critical features of host-parasite relationships of ticks, the potential for invasion of new areas or alteration of patterns of pathogen transmission in particular. However, modeling approaches that relate known occurrences of tick species to climate (and/or landscape) features and predict geographic occurrences are not completely fulfilling our needs to understand how the "tick panorama" can change as a consequence of these climate trends. This is a short review about the concept of ecological niche as applied to ticks, as well as some raised concerns about its evaluation and strict definition, and its usefulness to map geographical suitability for ticks. Comments about how climate, hosts, and landscape configuration are briefly discussed regarding its applicability to tick mapping and with reference about their impact on tick abundance. I will further comment on already published observations about observed changes in the geographical range of ticks in parts of Europe.

Coming to terms with the concept of moving species threatened by climate change - a systematic review of the terminology and definitions.

PubMed

Hällfors, Maria H; Vaara, Elina M; Hyvärinen, Marko; Oksanen, Markku; Schulman, Leif E; Siipi, Helena; Lehvävirta, Susanna

2014-01-01

Intentional moving of species threatened by climate change is actively being discussed as a conservation approach. The debate, empirical studies, and policy development, however, are impeded by an inconsistent articulation of the idea. The discrepancy is demonstrated by the varying use of terms, such as assisted migration, assisted colonisation, or managed relocation, and their multiple definitions. Since this conservation approach is novel, and may for instance lead to legislative changes, it is important to aim for terminological consistency. The objective of this study is to analyse the suitability of terms and definitions used when discussing the moving of organisms as a response to climate change. An extensive literature search and review of the material (868 scientific publications) was conducted for finding hitherto used terms (N = 40) and definitions (N = 75), and these were analysed for their suitability. Based on the findings, it is argued that an appropriate term for a conservation approach relating to aiding the movement of organisms harmed by climate change is assisted migration defined as follows: Assisted migration means safeguarding biological diversity through the translocation of representatives of a species or population harmed by climate change to an area outside the indigenous range of that unit where it would be predicted to move as climate changes, were it not for anthropogenic dispersal barriers or lack of time. The differences between assisted migration and other conservation translocations are also discussed. A wide adoption of the clear and distinctive term and definition provided would allow more focused research on the topic and enable consistent implementation as practitioners could have the same understanding of the concept.

Trends in fire risk and burned area in Brazil in the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, P.; Bastos, A.; DaCamara, C.; Libonati, R.

2016-12-01

Fire has a significant contribution to the global greenhouse gas emissions and vast ecological and climatic impacts. Worldwide, Brazil is one of the areas most affected by fire, which highly influences the state of the vegetation cover, the ecological diversity of the region and has significant consequences to the global CO2 balance [1]. Hence, with the increasing evidence of human induced climate change, it becomes essential to understand the present and future trends of fire risk in Brazil. Although a large number of fires in Brazil are anthropogenic, it has been shown that the burned area is mainly controlled by meteorological conditions [2], therefore being partially determined by fire risk. In this study we use a fire danger index specifically tailored for the Brazilian climate and biome characteristics, the MFDI developed by INPE, to assess the patterns and trends of fire risk in Brazil. The index relies on values of maximum temperature, accumulated precipitation over different periods, minimum relative humidity and vegetation cover to estimate the likelihood of fire occurrence. We test the sensitivity of the index to different climate reanalyses and evaluate the trends in fire risk in Brazil during the past four decades for different biomes. We further assess the link between the calculated fire risk and observed fire occurrence and burned area. Finally, we compare the results with fire risk simulated by a regional climate model (RCA4 forced by EC-Earth from CORDEX) in order to evaluate its suitability for future projections of fire risk and burned area. [1] Bowman, D. M. et al. Fire in the earth system. Science, v. 324, p. 481-484, 24 apr. 2009. [2] Libonati, R. et al. An Algorithm for Burned Area Detection in the Brazilian Cerrado Using 4 μm MODIS Imagery. Remote Sensing, v. 7, p. 15782-15803, 2015.

Combining dispersal, landscape connectivity and habitat suitability to assess climate-induced changes in the distribution of Cunningham’s skink, Egernia cunninghami

PubMed Central

Stow, Adam J.; Baumgartner, John B.; Beaumont, Linda J.

2017-01-01

The ability of species to track their climate niche is dependent on their dispersal potential and the connectivity of the landscape matrix linking current and future suitable habitat. However, studies modeling climate-driven range shifts rarely address the movement of species across landscapes realistically, often assuming “unlimited” or “no” dispersal. Here, we incorporate dispersal rate and landscape connectivity with a species distribution model (Maxent) to assess the extent to which the Cunningham’s skink (Egernia cunninghami) may be capable of tracking spatial shifts in suitable habitat as climate changes. Our model was projected onto four contrasting, but equally plausible, scenarios describing futures that are (relative to now) hot/wet, warm/dry, hot/with similar precipitation and warm/wet, at six time horizons with decadal intervals (2020–2070) and at two spatial resolutions: 1 km and 250 m. The size of suitable habitat was projected to decline 23–63% at 1 km and 26–64% at 250 m, by 2070. Combining Maxent output with the dispersal rate of the species and connectivity of the intervening landscape matrix showed that most current populations in regions projected to become unsuitable in the medium to long term, will be unable to shift the distance necessary to reach suitable habitat. In particular, numerous populations currently inhabiting the trailing edge of the species’ range are highly unlikely to be able to disperse fast enough to track climate change. Unless these populations are capable of adaptation they are likely to be extirpated. We note, however, that the core of the species distribution remains suitable across the broad spectrum of climate scenarios considered. Our findings highlight challenges faced by philopatric species and the importance of adaptation for the persistence of peripheral populations under climate change. PMID:28873398

The future of subalpine forests in the Southern Rocky Mountains: Trajectories for Pinus aristata genetic lineages

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Like many other high elevation alpine tree species, Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine (Pinus aristata Engelm.) may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. To evaluate its potential vulnerability to shifts in climate, we defined the suitable climate space for each of four genetic lineages of bristlecone pine and for other subalpine tree species in close proximity to bristlecone pine forests. Measuring changes in the suitable climate space for lineage groups is an important step beyond models that assume species are genetically homogenous. The suitable climate space for bristlecone pine in the year 2090 is projected to decline by 74% and the proportional distribution of suitable climate space for genetic lineages shifts toward those associated with warmer and wetter conditions. The 2090 climate space for bristlecone pine exhibits a bimodal distribution along an elevation gradient, presumably due to the persistence of the climate space in the Southern Rocky Mountains and exclusion at mid-elevations by conditions that favor the climate space of other species. These shifts have implications for changes in fire regimes, vulnerability to pest and pathogens, and altered carbon dynamics across the southern Rockies, which may reduce the likelihood of bristlecone pine trees achieving exceptional longevity in the future. The persistence and expansion of climate space for southern bristlecone pine genetic lineage groups in 2090 suggests that these sources may be the least vulnerable in the future. While these lineages may be more likely to persist and therefore present opportunities for proactive management (e.g., assisted migration) to maintain subalpine forest ecosystem services in a warmer world, our findings also imply heighted conservation concern for vulnerable northern lineages facing range contractions. PMID:29554097

Predicting the potential distributions of the invasive cycad scale Aulacaspis yasumatsui (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) under different climate change scenarios and the implications for management.

PubMed

Wei, Jiufeng; Zhao, Qing; Zhao, Wanqing; Zhang, Hufang

2018-01-01

Cycads are an ancient group of gymnosperms that are popular as landscaping plants, though nearly all of them are threatened or endangered in the wild. The cycad aulacaspis scale (CAS), Aulacaspis yasumatsui Takagi (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), has become one of the most serious pests of cycads in recent years; however, the potential distribution range and the management approach for this pest are unclear. A potential risk map of cycad aulacaspis scale was created based on occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors in this study. Furthermore, the future potential distributions of CAS were projected for the periods 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (GFDL-CM3, HADGEM2-AO and MIROC5) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The model suggested high environmental suitability for the continents of Asia and North America, where the species has already been recorded. The potential distribution expansions or reductions were also predicted under different climate change conditions. Temperature of Driest Quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor, explaining 48.1% of the distribution of the species. The results also suggested that highly suitable habitat for CAS would exist in the study area if the mean temperature of 15-20 °C in the driest quarter and a mean temperature of 25-28 °C the wettest quarter. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policy to manage and control this invasive pest.

Species distribution models for a migratory bird based on citizen science and satellite tracking data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coxen, Christopher L.; Frey, Jennifer K.; Carleton, Scott A.; Collins, Daniel P.

2017-01-01

Species distribution models can provide critical baseline distribution information for the conservation of poorly understood species. Here, we compared the performance of band-tailed pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata) species distribution models created using Maxent and derived from two separate presence-only occurrence data sources in New Mexico: 1) satellite tracked birds and 2) observations reported in eBird basic data set. Both models had good accuracy (test AUC > 0.8 and True Skill Statistic > 0.4), and high overlap between suitability scores (I statistic 0.786) and suitable habitat patches (relative rank 0.639). Our results suggest that, at the state-wide level, eBird occurrence data can effectively model similar species distributions as satellite tracking data. Climate change models for the band-tailed pigeon predict a 35% loss in area of suitable climate by 2070 if CO2 emissions drop to 1990 levels by 2100, and a 45% loss by 2070 if we continue current CO2 emission levels through the end of the century. These numbers may be conservative given the predicted increase in drought, wildfire, and forest pest impacts to the coniferous forests the species inhabits in New Mexico. The northern portion of the species’ range in New Mexico is predicted to be the most viable through time.

Munroa argentina, a Grass of the South American Transition Zone, Survived the Andean Uplift, Aridification and Glaciations of the Quaternary.

PubMed

Amarilla, Leonardo D; Anton, Ana M; Chiapella, Jorge O; Manifesto, María M; Angulo, Diego F; Sosa, Victoria

2015-01-01

The South American Transition Zone (SATZ) is a biogeographic area in which not only orogeny (Andes uplift) and climate events (aridification) since the mid-Miocene, but also Quaternary glaciation cycles had an important impact on the evolutionary history of the local flora. To study this effect, we selected Munroa argentina, an annual grass distributed in the biogeographic provinces of Puna, Prepuna and Monte. We collected 152 individuals from 20 localities throughout the species' range, ran genetic and demographic analyses, and applied ecological niche modeling. Phylogenetic and population genetic analyses based on cpDNA and AFLP data identified three phylogroups that correspond to the previously identified subregions within the SATZ. Molecular dating suggests that M. argentina has inhabited the SATZ since approximately 3.4 (4.2-1.2) Ma and paleomodels predict suitable climate in these areas during the Interglacial period and the Last Glacial Maximum. We conclude that the current distribution of M. argentina resulted from the fragmentation of its once continuous range and that climate oscillations promoted ecological differences that favored isolation by creating habitat discontinuity.

Dynamic modeling of potentially conflicting energy reduction strategies for residential structures in semi-arid climates.

PubMed

Hester, Nathan; Li, Ke; Schramski, John R; Crittenden, John

2012-04-30

Globally, residential energy consumption continues to rise due to a variety of trends such as increasing access to modern appliances, overall population growth, and the overall increase of electricity distribution. Currently, residential energy consumption accounts for approximately one-fifth of total U.S. energy consumption. This research analyzes the effectiveness of a range of energy-saving measures for residential houses in semi-arid climates. These energy-saving measures include: structural insulated panels (SIP) for exterior wall construction, daylight control, increased window area, efficient window glass suitable for the local weather, and several combinations of these. Our model determined that energy consumption is reduced by up to 6.1% when multiple energy savings technologies are combined. In addition, pre-construction technologies (structural insulated panels (SIPs), daylight control, and increased window area) provide roughly 4 times the energy savings when compared to post-construction technologies (window blinds and efficient window glass). The model also illuminated the importance variations in local climate and building configuration; highlighting the site-specific nature of this type of energy consumption quantification for policy and building code considerations. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Using a rule-based envelope model to predict the expansion of habitat suitability within New Zealand for the tick Haemaphysalis longicornis, with future projections based on two climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Lawrence, K E; Summers, S R; Heath, A C G; McFadden, A M J; Pulford, D J; Tait, A B; Pomroy, W E

2017-08-30

Haemaphysalis longicornis is the only species of tick present in New Zealand which infests livestock and is also the only competent vector for Theileria orientalis. Since 2012, New Zealand has suffered from an epidemic of infectious bovine anaemia associated with T. orientalis, an obligate intracellular protozoan parasite of cattle and buffaloes. The aim of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of habitat suitability of New Zealand for the tick H. longicornis using a simple rule-based climate envelope model, to validate the model against published data and use the validated model to project an expansion in habitat suitability for H. longicornis under two alternative climate change scenarios for the periods 2046-2065 and 2081-2100, relative to the climate of 1981-2010. A rule-based climate envelope model was developed based on the environmental requirements for off-host tick survival. The resulting model was validated against a maximum entropy environmental niche model of environmental suitability for T. orientalis transmission and against a H. longicornis occurrence map. Validation was completed using the I-similarity statistic and by linear regression. The H. longicornis climate envelope model predicted that 75% of cattle farms in the North Island, 3% of cattle farms in the South Island and 54% of cattle farms in New Zealand overall have habitats potentially suitable for the establishment of H. longicornis. The validation methods showed an acceptable level of agreement between the envelope model and published data. Both of the climate change scenarios, for each of the time periods, projected only slight to moderate increases in the average farm habitat suitability scores for all the South Island regions. However, only for the West Coast, Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson regions did these increases in environmental suitability translate into an increased proportion of cattle farms with low or high H. longicornis habitat suitability. These results will have important implications for the geographical progression of Theileria-associated bovine anaemia (TABA) in New Zealand and will also be of interest to Haemaphysalis longicornis researchers in Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change.

PubMed

Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J; Roberts, David R; Hamann, Andreas

2015-01-01

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth's surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, "analog-based" velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961-2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site's future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change.

Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J.; Roberts, David R.; Hamann, Andreas

2015-01-01

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth’s surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, “analog-based” velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site’s future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change. PMID:26466364

Potential Climate-driven Silvicultural and Agricultural Transformations in Siberia in the 21 Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Shvetsov, E.; Soja, A. J.

2017-12-01

Simulations of Siberian forests in a changing climate showed them to be changed in composition, decreased, and shifted northwards. Our goals were to evaluate the ecological consequences for the forests and agriculture in Siberia and to offer adaptive measures that may be undertaken to minimize negative consequences and maximize benefits from a rapidly changing environment in the socially important region of southern Siberia. We considered two strategies to estimate climate-change effects on potentially failing forests within an expanding forest-steppe ecotone. To support forestry, seed transfers from locations that are best suited to the genotypes in future climates may be applied to assist trees and forests in a changing climate. To support agriculture, in view of the growing world concerns on food safety, new farming lands may be established in a new forest-steppe ecotone with its favorable climatic and soil resources. We used our bioclimatic vegetation models of various levels: a forest type model to predict forest shifts and forest-failing lands, tree species range and their climatypes models to predict what tree species/climatype would be suitable and crop models to predict crops to introduce in potentially climate-disturbed areas in Siberia. Climate change data for the 2080s were calculated from the ensemble of 20 general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and two scenarios to characterize the range of climate change: mild climate (RCP2.6 scenario) and sharp climate (RCP 8.5 scenario). By the 2080s, forest-steppe and steppe rather than forests would dominate up to half of Siberia in the warmer and dryer RCP 8.5 climate. Water stress tolerant and fire-resistant light-needled species Pinus sylvestris and Larix spp. would dominate the forest-steppe ecotone. Failing forests in a dryer climate may be maintained by moving and substituting proper climatypes from locations often hundreds of km away. Agriculture in Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming. Farming may be a choice to use lands where forests would fail. Potential croplands would be limited by suitable soils in the north and irrigation in the south. To recommend an economic strategy that would optimize economic gains/losses due to the effects of climate change will require additional research

Distribution and diversity of twelve Curcuma species in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Lanyue; Wei, Jingwen; Yang, Zhiwen; Chen, Feng; Xian, Qiqiu; Su, Ping; Pan, Wanyi; Zhang, Kun; Zheng, Xi; Du, Zhiyun

2018-02-01

Genus Curcuma a wild species presents an important source of valuable characters for improving the cultivated Curcuma varieties. Based on the collected germplasms, herbariums, field surveys and other literatures, the ecogeographical diversity of Genus Curcuma and its potential distributions under the present and future climate are analysed by DIVA-GIS. The results indicate Genus Curcuma is distributed over 17 provinces in China, and particularly abundant in Guangxi and Guangdong provinces. The simulated current distributions are close to the actual distribution regions. In the future climate, the suitable areas for four Curcuma species will be extended, while for other three species the regions will be significantly decreased, and thus these valuable resources need protecting.

The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection

PubMed Central

Medone, Paula; Ceccarelli, Soledad; Parham, Paul E.; Figuera, Andreína; Rabinovich, Jorge E.

2015-01-01

Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach. PMID:25688019

The relative impacts of climate and land-use change on conterminous United States bird species from 2001 to 2075

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.

2014-01-01

Species distribution models often use climate data to assess contemporary and/or future ranges for animal or plant species. Land use and land cover (LULC) data are important predictor variables for determining species range, yet are rarely used when modeling future distributions. In this study, maximum entropy modeling was used to construct species distribution maps for 50 North American bird species to determine relative contributions of climate and LULC for contemporary (2001) and future (2075) time periods. Species presence data were used as a dependent variable, while climate, LULC, and topographic data were used as predictor variables. Results varied by species, but in general, measures of model fit for 2001 indicated significantly poorer fit when either climate or LULC data were excluded from model simulations. Climate covariates provided a higher contribution to 2001 model results than did LULC variables, although both categories of variables strongly contributed. The area deemed to be "suitable" for 2001 species presence was strongly affected by the choice of model covariates, with significantly larger ranges predicted when LULC was excluded as a covariate. Changes in species ranges for 2075 indicate much larger overall range changes due to projected climate change than due to projected LULC change. However, the choice of study area impacted results for both current and projected model applications, with truncation of actual species ranges resulting in lower model fit scores and increased difficulty in interpreting covariate impacts on species range. Results indicate species-specific response to climate and LULC variables; however, both climate and LULC variables clearly are important for modeling both contemporary and potential future species ranges.

Early warning signal for dengue outbreaks and identification of high risk areas for dengue fever in Colombia using climate and non-climate datasets.

PubMed

Lee, Jung-Seok; Carabali, Mabel; Lim, Jacqueline K; Herrera, Victor M; Park, Il-Yeon; Villar, Luis; Farlow, Andrew

2017-07-10

Dengue has been prevalent in Colombia with high risk of outbreaks in various locations. While the prediction of dengue epidemics will bring significant benefits to the society, accurate forecasts have been a challenge. Given competing health demands in Colombia, it is critical to consider the effective use of the limited healthcare resources by identifying high risk areas for dengue fever. The Climate Risk Factor (CRF) index was constructed based upon temperature, precipitation, and humidity. Considering the conditions necessary for vector survival and transmission behavior, elevation and population density were taken into account. An Early Warning Signal (EWS) model was developed by estimating the elasticity of the climate risk factor function to detect dengue epidemics. The climate risk factor index was further estimated at the smaller geographical unit (5 km by 5 km resolution) to identify populations at high risk. From January 2007 to December 2015, the Early Warning Signal model successfully detected 75% of the total number of outbreaks 1 ~ 5 months ahead of time, 12.5% in the same month, and missed 12.5% of all outbreaks. The climate risk factors showed that populations at high risk are concentrated in the Western part of Colombia where more suitable climate conditions for vector mosquitoes and the high population level were observed compared to the East. This study concludes that it is possible to detect dengue outbreaks ahead of time and identify populations at high risk for various disease prevention activities based upon observed climate and non-climate information. The study outcomes can be used to minimize potential societal losses by prioritizing limited healthcare services and resources, as well as by conducting vector control activities prior to experiencing epidemics.

Hope for the Forests? Habitat Resiliency Illustrated in the Face of Climate Change Using Fine-Scale Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, E. R.

2010-12-01

In the face of rapid climate change, fine-scale predictions of landscape change are of extreme interest to land managers that endeavor to develop long term adaptive strategies for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. Global climate model (GCM) outputs, which generally focus on estimated increases in air temperature, are increasingly applied to species habitat distribution models. For sensitive species subject to climate change, habitat models predict significant migration (either northward or towards higher elevations), or complete extinction. Current studies typically rely on large spatial scale GCM projections (> 10 km) of changes in precipitation and air temperature: at this scale, these models necessarily neglect subtleties of topographic shading, geomorphic expression of the landscape, and fine-scale differences in soil properties - data that is readily available at meaningful local scales. Recent advances in modeling take advantage of available soils, geology, and topographic data to construct watershed-scale scenarios using GCM inputs and result in improved correlations of vegetation distribution with temperature. For this study, future climate projections were downscaled to 270-m and applied to a physically-based hydrologic model to calculate future changes in recharge, runoff, and climatic water deficit (CWD) for basins draining into the northern San Francisco Bay. CWD was analyzed for mapped vegetation types to evaluate the range of CWD for historic time periods in comparison to future time periods. For several forest communities (including blue oak woodlands, montane hardwoods, douglas-fir, and coast redwood) existing landscape area exhibiting suitable CWD diminishes by up 80 percent in the next century, with a trend towards increased CWD throughout the region. However, no forest community loses all suitable habitat, with islands of potential habitat primarily remaining on north facing slopes and deeper soils. Creation of new suitable habitat is also predicted throughout the region. Results have direct application to management issues of habitat connectivity, forest land protection and acquisition, and active management solutions such as transplanting or assisted migration. Although this analysis considers only one driver of forest habitat distribution, consideration of hydrologic derivatives at a fine scale explains current forest community distributions and provides a far more informed perspective on potential future forest distributions. Results demonstrate the utility of fine-scale modeling and provide landscape managers and conservation agencies valuable management tools in fine-scale future forest scenarios and a framework for evaluating forest resiliency in a changing climate.

Large-scale determinants of intestinal schistosomiasis and intermediate host snail distribution across Africa: does climate matter?

PubMed

Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope; Hürlimann, Eveline; Schur, Nadine; Saarnak, Christopher F L; Simoonga, Christopher; Mubita, Patricia; Kabatereine, Narcis B; Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis-Albert; Rahbek, Carsten; Kristensen, Thomas K

2013-11-01

The geographical ranges of most species, including many infectious disease agents and their vectors and intermediate hosts, are assumed to be constrained by climatic tolerances, mainly temperature. It has been suggested that global warming will cause an expansion of the areas potentially suitable for infectious disease transmission. However, the transmission of infectious diseases is governed by a myriad of ecological, economic, evolutionary and social factors. Hence, a deeper understanding of the total disease system (pathogens, vectors and hosts) and its drivers is important for predicting responses to climate change. Here, we combine a growing degree day model for Schistosoma mansoni with species distribution models for the intermediate host snail (Biomphalaria spp.) to investigate large-scale environmental determinants of the distribution of the African S. mansoni-Biomphalaria system and potential impacts of climatic changes. Snail species distribution models included several combinations of climatic and habitat-related predictors; the latter divided into "natural" and "human-impacted" habitat variables to measure anthropogenic influence. The predictive performance of the combined snail-parasite model was evaluated against a comprehensive compilation of historical S. mansoni parasitological survey records, and then examined for two climate change scenarios of increasing severity for 2080. Future projections indicate that while the potential S. mansoni transmission area expands, the snail ranges are more likely to contract and/or move into cooler areas in the south and east. Importantly, we also note that even though climate per se matters, the impact of humans on habitat play a crucial role in determining the distribution of the intermediate host snails in Africa. Thus, a future contraction in the geographical range size of the intermediate host snails caused by climatic changes does not necessarily translate into a decrease or zero-sum change in human schistosomiasis prevalence. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Species distribution models predict temporal but not spatial variation in forest growth.

PubMed

van der Maaten, Ernst; Hamann, Andreas; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke; Bergsma, Aldo; Hengeveld, Geerten; van Lammeren, Ron; Mohren, Frits; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; Terhürne, Renske; Sterck, Frank

2017-04-01

Bioclimate envelope models have been widely used to illustrate the discrepancy between current species distributions and their potential habitat under climate change. However, the realism and correct interpretation of such projections has been the subject of considerable discussion. Here, we investigate whether climate suitability predictions correlate to tree growth, measured in permanent inventory plots and inferred from tree-ring records. We use the ensemble classifier RandomForest and species occurrence data from ~200,000 inventory plots to build species distribution models for four important European forestry species: Norway spruce, Scots pine, European beech, and pedunculate oak. We then correlate climate-based habitat suitability with volume measurements from ~50-year-old stands, available from ~11,000 inventory plots. Secondly, habitat projections based on annual historical climate are compared with ring width from ~300 tree-ring chronologies. Our working hypothesis is that habitat suitability projections from species distribution models should to some degree be associated with temporal or spatial variation in these growth records. We find that the habitat projections are uncorrelated with spatial growth records (inventory plot data), but they do predict interannual variation in tree-ring width, with an average correlation of .22. Correlation coefficients for individual chronologies range from values as high as .82 or as low as -.31. We conclude that tree responses to projected climate change are highly site-specific and that local suitability of a species for reforestation is difficult to predict. That said, projected increase or decrease in climatic suitability may be interpreted as an average expectation of increased or reduced growth over larger geographic scales.

Potential effects of climate change on the distribution of waterbirds in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Powell, Abby N.

2012-01-01

Wetland-dependent birds are considered to be at particularly high risk for negative climate change effects. Current and future distributions of American Bittern (Botaurus lentiginosus), American Coot (Fulica americana), Black Tern (Chlidonias niger), Pied-billed Grebe (Podilymbus podiceps) and Sora (Porzana carolina), five waterbird species common in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), were predicted using species distribution models (SDMs) in combination with climate data that projected a drier future for the PPR. Regional-scale SDMs were created for the U.S. PPR using breeding bird survey occurrence records for 1971-2000 and wetland and climate parameters. For each waterbird species, current distribution and four potential future distributions were predicted: all combinations of two Global Circulation Models and two emissions scenarios. Averaged for all five species, the ensemble range reduction was 64%. However, projected range losses for individual species varied widely with Sora and Black Tern projected to lose close to 100% and American Bittern 29% of their current range. Future distributions were also projected to a hypothetical landscape where wetlands were numerous and constant to highlight areas suitable as conservation reserves under a drier future climate. The ensemble model indicated that northeastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota would be the best areas for conservation reserves within the U.S. PPR under the modeled conditions.

Potential land use adjustment for future climate change adaptation in revegetated regions.

PubMed

Peng, Shouzhang; Li, Zhi

2018-05-22

To adapt to future climate change, appropriate land use patterns are desired. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) emphasizing the dominant role of climate can provide a useful baseline to guide the potential land use adjustment. This work is particularly important for the revegetated regions with intensive human perturbation. However, it has received little attention. This study chose China's Loess Plateau, a typical revegetated region, as an example study area to generate the PNV patterns with high spatial resolution over 2071-2100 with a process-based dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS), and further investigated the potential land use adjustment through comparing the simulated and observed land use patterns. Compared with 1981-2010, the projected PNV over 2071-2100 would have less forest and more steppe because of drier climate. Subsequently, 25.3-55.0% of the observed forests and 79.3-91.9% of the observed grasslands in 2010 can be kept over 2071-2100, and the rest of the existing forested area and grassland were expected to be more suitable for steppes and forests, respectively. To meet the request of China's Grain for Green Project, 60.9-84.8% of the existing steep farmland could be converted to grassland and the other for forest. Our results highlight the importance in adjusting the existing vegetation pattern to adapt to climate change. The research approach is extendable and provides a framework to evaluate the sustainability of the existing land use pattern under future climate. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngaina, J. N.

2017-12-01

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stephens, Philip A.; Mason, Lucy R.; Green, Rhys E.; Gregory, Richard D.; Sauer, John R.; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H.M.; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemyslaw; Crowe, Olivia; Elts, Jaanus; Escandell, Virginia; Foppen, Ruud P.B.; Heldbjerg, Henning; Herrando, Sergi; Husby, Magne; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindström, Åke; Noble, David G.; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Reif, Jiri; Sattler, Thomas; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Trautmann, Sven; Van Strien, Arco; van Turnhout, Chris A.M.; Vorisek, Petr; Willis, Stephen G.

2016-01-01

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

Predicted changes in climatic niche and climate refugia of conservation priority salamander species in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sutton, William B.; Barrett, Kyle; Moody, Allison T.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; deMaynadier, Phillip G.; Nanjappa, Priya

2015-01-01

Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1) evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections) and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2) using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus), Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi), Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia), Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei), and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri) predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch), whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.

Habitat suitability—density relationship in an endangered woodland species: the case of the Blue Chaffinch (Fringilla polatzeki)

PubMed Central

Moreno, Ángel C.; Delgado, Alejandro; Suárez, Víctor; Trujillo, Domingo

2017-01-01

Background Understanding constraints to the distribution of threatened species may help to ascertain whether there are other suitable sectors for reducing the risks associated with species that are recorded in only one protected locality, and to inform about the suitability of other areas for reintroduction or translocation programs. Methods We studied the Gran Canaria blue chaffinch (Fringilla polatzeki), a habitat specialist endemic of the Canary Islands restricted to the pine forest of Inagua, the only area where the species has been naturally present as a regular breeder in the last 25 years. A suitability distribution model using occurrences with demographic relevance (i.e., nest locations of successful breeding attempts analysed using boosted classification trees) was built considering orographic, climatic and habitat structure predictors. By means of a standardized survey program we monitored the yearly abundance of the species in 100 sectors since the declaration of Inagua as a Strict Nature Reserve in 1994. Results The variables with the highest relative importance in blue chaffinch habitat preferences were pine height, tree cover, altitude, and rainfall during the driest trimester (July–September). The observed local abundance of the blue chaffinch in Inagua (survey data) was significantly correlated with habitat suitability derived from modelling the location of successful nesting attempts (using linear and quantile regressions). The outcomes of the habitat suitability model were used to quantify the suitability of other natural, historic, pine forests of Gran Canaria. Tamadaba is the forest with most suitable woodland patches for the species. We estimated a population size of 195–430 blue chaffinches in Inagua since 2011 (95% CI), the smallest population size of a woodland passerine in the Western Palearctic. Discussion Habitat suitability obtained from modelling the location of successful breeding attempts is a good surrogate of the observed local abundance during the reproductive season. The outcomes of these models can be used for the identification of potential areas for the reintroduction of the species in other suitable pine forests and to inform forest management practices. PMID:28924498

Predicting the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of an imperiled freshwater mussel, Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Margaritiferidae), in riverine systems.

PubMed

Inoue, Kentaro; Berg, David J

2017-01-01

In the face of global climate change, organisms may respond to temperature increases by shifting their ranges poleward or to higher altitudes. However, the direction of range shifts in riverine systems is less clear. Because rivers are dendritic networks, there is only one dispersal route from any given location to another. Thus, range shifts are only possible if branches are connected by suitable habitat, and stream-dwelling organisms can disperse through these branches. We used Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Unionoida: Margaritiferidae) as a model species to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity because a majority of contemporary populations are panmictic. We combined ecological niche models (ENMs) with population genetic simulations to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of C. monodonta. The ENMs were constructed using bioclimatic and landscape data to project shifts in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We then used forward-time simulations to project potential changes in genetic diversity and population connectivity based on these range shifts. ENM results under current conditions indicated long stretches of highly suitable habitat in rivers where C. monodonta persists; populations in the upper Mississippi River remain connected by suitable habitat that does not impede gene flow. Future climate scenarios projected northward and headwater-ward range contraction and drastic declines in habitat suitability for most extant populations throughout the Mississippi River Basin. Simulations indicated that climate change would greatly reduce genetic diversity and connectivity across populations. Results suggest that a single, large population of C. monodonta will become further fragmented into smaller populations, each of which will be isolated and begin to differentiate genetically. Because C. monodonta is a widely distributed species and purely aquatic, our results suggest that persistence and connectivity of stream-dwelling organisms will be significantly altered in response to future climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Back to the future: using historical climate variation to project near-term shifts in habitat suitable for coast redwood.

PubMed

Fernández, Miguel; Hamilton, Healy H; Kueppers, Lara M

2015-11-01

Studies that model the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems often use climate projections from downscaled global climate models (GCMs). These simulations are generally too coarse to capture patterns of fine-scale climate variation, such as the sharp coastal energy and moisture gradients associated with wind-driven upwelling of cold water. Coastal upwelling may limit future increases in coastal temperatures, compromising GCMs' ability to provide realistic scenarios of future climate in these coastal ecosystems. Taking advantage of naturally occurring variability in the high-resolution historic climatic record, we developed multiple fine-scale scenarios of California climate that maintain coherent relationships between regional climate and coastal upwelling. We compared these scenarios against coarse resolution GCM projections at a regional scale to evaluate their temporal equivalency. We used these historically based scenarios to estimate potential suitable habitat for coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens D. Don) under 'normal' combinations of temperature and precipitation, and under anomalous combinations representative of potential future climates. We found that a scenario of warmer temperature with historically normal precipitation is equivalent to climate projected by GCMs for California by 2020-2030 and that under these conditions, climatically suitable habitat for coast redwood significantly contracts at the southern end of its current range. Our results suggest that historical climate data provide a high-resolution alternative to downscaled GCM outputs for near-term ecological forecasts. This method may be particularly useful in other regions where local climate is strongly influenced by ocean-atmosphere dynamics that are not represented by coarse-scale GCMs. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Analysis and definition of potential new areas for viticulture in the Azores (Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madruga, J.; Azevedo, E. B.; Sampaio, J. F.; Fernandes, F.; Reis, F.; Pinheiro, J.

2015-07-01

Vineyards in the Azores have been traditionally settled on lava field terroirs but the practical limitations of mechanization and high demand on man labor imposed by the typical micro parcel structure of these vineyards contradict the sustainability of these areas for wine production, except under government policies of heavy financial support. Besides the traditional vineyards there are significant areas in some of the islands whose soils, climate and physiographic characteristics suggest a potential for wine production that deserves to be the object of an assessment, with a view to the development of new vineyard areas offering conditions for better management and sustainability. The landscape zoning approach for the present study was based in a geographic information system (GIS) analysis incorporating factors related to climate, topography and soils. Three thermal intervals referred to climate maturity groups were defined and combined with a single slope interval of 0-15 % to exclude the landscape units above this limit. Over this resulting composite grid, the soils were then selectively cartographed through the exclusion of the soil units not fulfilling the suitability criteria. The results show that the thermal interval of warmer conditions, well represented in the traditional terroir of Pico island, has practically no expression in the other islands. However, for the intermediate and the cooler classes, we could map areas of 5611 and 18 115 ha respectively, fulfilling the defined soils and slope criteria, indicating thus the existence of some landscapes in the studied islands revealing adequate potential for future development of viticulture, although certainly demanding a good judgment on the better grape varieties to be adapted to those climatic conditions.

Analysis and definition of potential new areas for viticulture in the Azores (Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madruga, J.; Azevedo, E. B.; Sampaio, J. F.; Reis, F.; Pinheiro, J.

2014-12-01

Vineyards in the Azores have been traditionally settled on lava field "terroirs" but the practical limitations of mechanization and high demand on man labor imposed by the typical micro parcel structure of these vineyards contradict the sustainability of these areas for wine production, except under government policies of heavy financial support. Besides the traditional vineyards there are significant areas in some of the islands whose soils, climate and physiographic characteristics suggest a potential for wine production that deserves to be object of an assessment, with a view to the development of new vineyard areas offering conditions for a better management and sustainability. The landscape zoning approach for the present study was based in a Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis incorporating factors related to climate, topography and soils. Three thermal intervals referred to climate maturity groups were defined and combined with a single slope interval of 0-15% to exclude the landscape units above this limit. Over this resulting composite grid, the soils were than selectively cartographed thru the exclusion of the soil units not fulfilling the suitability criteria. The results show that the thermal interval of warmer conditions, well represented in the traditional "terroir" of Pico island, has practically no expression in the other islands. However, for the intermediate and the cooler classes, we could map areas of 3739 and 19 395 ha respectively, fulfilling the defined soils and slope criteria, indicating thus the existence of some landscapes in the studied islands revealing adequate potential for future development of viticulture, although certainly demanding a good judgment on the better grape varieties to be adapted to those climatic conditions.

Evaluation of land capability and suitability for irrigated agriculture in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, UAE, using an integrated AHP-GIS model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldababseh, A.; Temimi, M.; Maghelal, P.; Branch, O.; Wulfmeyer, V.

2017-12-01

The rapid economic development and high population growth in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have impacted utilization and management of agricultural land. The development of large-scale agriculture in unsuitable areas can severely impact groundwater resources in the UAE. More than 60% of UAE's water resources are being utilized by the agriculture, forestry, and urban greenery sectors. However, the contribution of the agricultural sector to the national GDP is negligible. Several programs have been introduced by the government aimed at achieving sustainable agriculture whilst preserving valuable water resources. Local subsistence farming has declined considerably during the past few years, due to low soil moisture content, sandy soil texture, lack of arable land, natural climatic disruptions, water shortages, and declined rainfall. The limited production of food and the continuing rise in the food prices on a global and local level are expected to increase low-income households' vulnerability to food insecurity. This research aims at developing a suitability index for the evaluation and prioritization of areas in the UAE for large-scale agriculture. The AHP-GIS integrated model developed in this study facilitates a step by step aggregation of a large number of datasets representing the most important criteria, and the generation of agricultural suitability and land capability maps. To provide the necessary criteria to run the model, a comprehensive geospatial database was built, including climate conditions, water potential, soil capabilities, topography, and land management. A hieratical structure is built as a decomposition structure that includes all criteria and sub-criteria used to define land suitability based on literature review and experts' opinions. Pairwise comparisons matrix are used to calculate criteria' weights. The GIS Model Builder function is used to integrate all spatial processes to model land suitability. In order to preserve some flexibility for future agricultural pathways, different types of crops are considered. This process helped in recommending a set of findings that will determine whether large-scale plantations are recommended for the UAE. It also identifies the kind of crops that have the highest potential to adapt to the hot and dry weather without affecting the crops yield.

Evaluation of land capability and suitability for irrigated agriculture in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, UAE, using an integrated AHP-GIS model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldababseh, Amal; Temimi, Marouane; Maghelal, Praveen; Branch, Oliver; Wulfmeyer, Volker

2017-12-01

The rapid economic development and high population growth in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have impacted utilization and management of agricultural land. The development of large-scale agriculture in unsuitable areas can severely impact groundwater resources in the UAE. More than 60% of UAE's water resources are being utilized by the agriculture, forestry, and urban greenery sectors. However, the contribution of the agricultural sector to the national GDP is negligible. Several programs have been introduced by the government aimed at achieving sustainable agriculture whilst preserving valuable water resources. Local subsistence farming has declined considerably during the past few years, due to low soil moisture content, sandy soil texture, lack of arable land, natural climatic disruptions, water shortages, and declined rainfall. The limited production of food and the continuing rise in the food prices on a global and local level are expected to increase low-income households' vulnerability to food insecurity. This research aims at developing a suitability index for the evaluation and prioritization of areas in the UAE for large-scale agriculture. The AHP-GIS integrated model developed in this study facilitates a step by step aggregation of a large number of datasets representing the most important criteria, and the generation of agricultural suitability and land capability maps. To provide the necessary criteria to run the model, a comprehensive geospatial database was built, including climate conditions, water potential, soil capabilities, topography, and land management. A hierarchical structure is built as a decomposition structure that includes all criteria and sub-criteria used to define land suitability based on literature review and experts' opinions. Pairwise comparisons matrix are used to calculate criteria' weights. The GIS Model Builder function is used to integrate all spatial processes to model land suitability. In order to preserve some flexibility for future agricultural pathways, different types of crops are considered. This process helped in recommending a set of findings that will determine whether large-scale plantations are recommended for the UAE. It also identifies the kind of crops that have the highest potential to adapt to the hot and dry weather without affecting the crops yield.

Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity.

PubMed

Duveneck, Matthew J; Scheller, Robert M

2015-09-01

Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000-2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-as-usual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass).

Supporting local farming communities and crop production resilience to climate change through giant reed (Arundo donax L.) cultivation: An Italian case study.

PubMed

Bonfante, A; Impagliazzo, A; Fiorentino, N; Langella, G; Mori, M; Fagnano, M

2017-12-01

Bioenergy crops are well known for their ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase the soil carbon stock. Although such crops are often held to be in competition with food crops and thus raise the question of current and future food security, at the same time mitigation measures are required to tackle climate change and sustain local farming communities and crop production. However, in some cases the actions envisaged for specific pedo-climatic conditions are not always economically sustainable by farmers. In this frame, energy crops with high environmental adaptability and yields, such as giant reed (Arundo donax L.), may represent an opportunity to improve farm incomes, making marginal areas not suitable for food production once again productive. In so doing, three of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations would be met, namely SDG 2 on food security and sustainable agriculture, SDG 7 on reliable, sustainable and modern energy, and SDG 13 on action to combat climate change and its impacts. In this work, the response of giant reed in the marginal areas of an agricultural district of southern Italy (Destra Sele) and expected farm incomes under climate change (2021-2050) are evaluated. The normalized water productivity index of giant reed was determined (WP; 30.1gm -2 ) by means of a SWAP agro-hydrological model, calibrated and validated on two years of a long-term field experiment. The model was used to estimate giant reed response (biomass yield) in marginal areas under climate change, and economic evaluation was performed to determine expected farm incomes (woodchips and chopped forage). The results show that woodchip production represents the most profitable option for farmers, yielding a gross margin 50% lower than ordinary high-input maize cultivation across the study area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A method to determine agro-climatic zones based on correlation and cluster analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borges Valeriano, Taynara Tuany; de Souza Rolim, Glauco; de Oliveira Aparecido, Lucas Eduardo

2017-12-01

Determining agro-climatic zones (ACZs) is traditionally made by cross-comparing meteorological elements such as air temperature, rainfall, and water deficit (DEF). This study proposes a new method based on correlations between monthly DEFs during the crop cycle and annual yield and performs a multivariate cluster analysis on these correlations. This `correlation method' was applied to all municipalities in the state of São Paulo to determine ACZs for coffee plantations. A traditional ACZ method for coffee, which is based on temperature and DEF ranges (Evangelista et al.; RBEAA, 6:445-452, 2002), was applied to the study area to compare against the correlation method. The traditional ACZ classified the "Alta Mogina," "Média Mogiana," and "Garça and Marília" regions as traditional coffee regions that were either suitable or even restricted for coffee plantations. These traditional regions have produced coffee since 1800 and should not be classified as restricted. The correlation method classified those areas as high-producing regions and expanded them into other areas. The proposed method is innovative, because it is more detailed than common ACZ methods. Each developmental crop phase was analyzed based on correlations between the monthly DEF and yield, improving the importance of crop physiology in relation to climate.

Staying cool: preadaptation to temperate climates required for colonising tropical alpine-like environments.

PubMed

Gehrke, Berit

2018-01-01

Plant species tend to retain their ancestral ecology, responding to temporal, geographic and climatic changes by tracking suitable habitats rather than adapting to novel conditions. Nevertheless, transitions into different environments or biomes still seem to be common. Especially intriguing are the tropical alpine-like areas found on only the highest mountainous regions surrounded by tropical environments. Tropical mountains are hotspots of biodiversity, often with striking degrees of endemism at higher elevations. On these mountains, steep environmental gradients and high habitat heterogeneity within small spaces coincide with astounding species diversity of great conservation value. The analysis presented here shows that the importance of in situ speciation in tropical alpine-like areas has been underestimated. Additionally and contrary to widely held opinion, the impact of dispersal from other regions with alpine-like environments is relatively minor compared to that of immigration from other biomes with a temperate (but not alpine-like) climate. This suggests that establishment in tropical alpine-like regions is favoured by preadaptation to a temperate, especially aseasonal, freezing regime such as the cool temperate climate regions in the Tropics. Furthermore, emigration out of an alpine-like environment is generally rare, suggesting that alpine-like environments - at least tropical ones - are species sinks.

Using a Temperature Model and GIS Analysis of Landscape Features to Assess Headwater Resilience to Climate Change in the Driftless Area of Wisconsin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuster, Z.; Potter, K. W.

2015-12-01

Cold groundwater discharges in the headwaters of streams in the Driftless Area of Wisconsin help support cold-water fisheries that are valued by anglers throughout the Midwestern U.S. With climate change expected to increase temperatures and threaten the cold-water habitat of species such as brook and brown trout, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources is focusing resources on restoration as means of adapting to climate change. One of the challenges they face is a lack of site-specific temperature data in the headwaters streams that they are targeting for restoration activities. Previous work has shown that there is a strong relationship between air and stream temperature. In this study, we calculated weekly mean air-stream temperature relationships for Driftless region headwaters streams and used air temperature projections from a set of statistically-downscaled GCM models to model thermal metrics relevant to fish species suitability described by Lyons et al. (2009) for historical (1961-2000) and future (2046-2065) conditions. We then combined the stream temperature projections with a GIS analysis of physiographic and geologic features to attempt to develop a way of predicting ungaged headwaters streams in the region that are likely to be resilient to temperature increases due to climate change.

Staying cool: preadaptation to temperate climates required for colonising tropical alpine-like environments

PubMed Central

Gehrke, Berit

2018-01-01

Abstract Plant species tend to retain their ancestral ecology, responding to temporal, geographic and climatic changes by tracking suitable habitats rather than adapting to novel conditions. Nevertheless, transitions into different environments or biomes still seem to be common. Especially intriguing are the tropical alpine-like areas found on only the highest mountainous regions surrounded by tropical environments. Tropical mountains are hotspots of biodiversity, often with striking degrees of endemism at higher elevations. On these mountains, steep environmental gradients and high habitat heterogeneity within small spaces coincide with astounding species diversity of great conservation value. The analysis presented here shows that the importance of in situ speciation in tropical alpine-like areas has been underestimated. Additionally and contrary to widely held opinion, the impact of dispersal from other regions with alpine-like environments is relatively minor compared to that of immigration from other biomes with a temperate (but not alpine-like) climate. This suggests that establishment in tropical alpine-like regions is favoured by preadaptation to a temperate, especially aseasonal, freezing regime such as the cool temperate climate regions in the Tropics. Furthermore, emigration out of an alpine-like environment is generally rare, suggesting that alpine-like environments – at least tropical ones – are species sinks. PMID:29706788

Determinants of extinction-colonization dynamics in Mediterranean butterflies: the role of landscape, climate and local habitat features.

PubMed

Fernández-Chacón, Albert; Stefanescu, Constantí; Genovart, Meritxell; Nichols, James D; Hines, James E; Páramo, Ferran; Turco, Marco; Oro, Daniel

2014-01-01

Many species are found today in the form of fragmented populations occupying patches of remnant habitat in human-altered landscapes. The persistence of these population networks requires a balance between extinction and colonization events assumed to be primarily related to patch area and isolation, but the contribution of factors such as the characteristics of patch and matrix habitats, the species' traits (habitat specialization and dispersal capabilities) and variation in climatic conditions have seldom been evaluated simultaneously. The identification of environmental variables associated with patch occupancy and turnover may be especially useful to enhance the persistence of multiple species under current global change. However, for robust inference on occupancy and related parameters, we must account for detection errors, a commonly overlooked problem that leads to biased estimates and misleading conclusions about population dynamics. Here, we provide direct empirical evidence of the effects of different environmental variables on the extinction and colonization rates of a rich butterfly community in the western Mediterranean. The analysis was based on a 17-year data set containing detection/nondetection data on 73 butterfly species for 26 sites in north-eastern Spain. Using multiseason occupancy models, which take into account species' detectability, we were able to obtain robust estimates of local extinction and colonization probabilities for each species and test the potential effects of site covariates such as the area of suitable habitat, topographic variability, landscape permeability around the site and climatic variability in aridity conditions. Results revealed a general pattern across species with local habitat composition and landscape features as stronger predictors of occupancy dynamics compared with topography and local aridity. Increasing area of suitable habitat in a site strongly decreased local extinction risks and, for a number of species, both higher amounts of suitable habitat and more permeable landscapes increased colonization rates. Nevertheless, increased topographic variability decreased the extinction risk of bad dispersers, a group of species with significantly lower colonization rates. Our models predicted higher sensitivity of the butterfly assemblages to deterministic changes in habitat features rather than to stochastic weather patterns, with some relationships being clearly dependent on the species' traits. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Species distribution modelling for conservation of an endangered endemic orchid

PubMed Central

Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan; Wonkka, Carissa L.; Treglia, Michael L.; Grant, William E.; Smeins, Fred E.; Rogers, William E.

2015-01-01

Concerns regarding the long-term viability of threatened and endangered plant species are increasingly warranted given the potential impacts of climate change and habitat fragmentation on unstable and isolated populations. Orchidaceae is the largest and most diverse family of flowering plants, but it is currently facing unprecedented risks of extinction. Despite substantial conservation emphasis on rare orchids, populations continue to decline. Spiranthes parksii (Navasota ladies' tresses) is a federally and state-listed endangered terrestrial orchid endemic to central Texas. Hence, we aimed to identify potential factors influencing the distribution of the species, quantify the relative importance of each factor and determine suitable habitat for future surveys and targeted conservation efforts. We analysed several geo-referenced variables describing climatic conditions and landscape features to identify potential factors influencing the likelihood of occurrence of S. parksii using boosted regression trees. Our model classified 97 % of the cells correctly with regard to species presence and absence, and indicated that probability of existence was correlated with climatic conditions and landscape features. The most influential variables were mean annual precipitation, mean elevation, mean annual minimum temperature and mean annual maximum temperature. The most likely suitable range for S. parksii was the eastern portions of Leon and Madison Counties, the southern portion of Brazos County, a portion of northern Grimes County and along the borders between Burleson and Washington Counties. Our model can assist in the development of an integrated conservation strategy through: (i) focussing future survey and research efforts on areas with a high likelihood of occurrence, (ii) aiding in selection of areas for conservation and restoration and (iii) framing future research questions including those necessary for predicting responses to climate change. Our model could also incorporate new information on S. parksii as it becomes available to improve prediction accuracy, and our methodology could be adapted to develop distribution maps for other rare species of conservation concern. PMID:25900746

Species distribution modelling for conservation of an endangered endemic orchid.

PubMed

Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan; Wonkka, Carissa L; Treglia, Michael L; Grant, William E; Smeins, Fred E; Rogers, William E

2015-04-21

Concerns regarding the long-term viability of threatened and endangered plant species are increasingly warranted given the potential impacts of climate change and habitat fragmentation on unstable and isolated populations. Orchidaceae is the largest and most diverse family of flowering plants, but it is currently facing unprecedented risks of extinction. Despite substantial conservation emphasis on rare orchids, populations continue to decline. Spiranthes parksii (Navasota ladies' tresses) is a federally and state-listed endangered terrestrial orchid endemic to central Texas. Hence, we aimed to identify potential factors influencing the distribution of the species, quantify the relative importance of each factor and determine suitable habitat for future surveys and targeted conservation efforts. We analysed several geo-referenced variables describing climatic conditions and landscape features to identify potential factors influencing the likelihood of occurrence of S. parksii using boosted regression trees. Our model classified 97 % of the cells correctly with regard to species presence and absence, and indicated that probability of existence was correlated with climatic conditions and landscape features. The most influential variables were mean annual precipitation, mean elevation, mean annual minimum temperature and mean annual maximum temperature. The most likely suitable range for S. parksii was the eastern portions of Leon and Madison Counties, the southern portion of Brazos County, a portion of northern Grimes County and along the borders between Burleson and Washington Counties. Our model can assist in the development of an integrated conservation strategy through: (i) focussing future survey and research efforts on areas with a high likelihood of occurrence, (ii) aiding in selection of areas for conservation and restoration and (iii) framing future research questions including those necessary for predicting responses to climate change. Our model could also incorporate new information on S. parksii as it becomes available to improve prediction accuracy, and our methodology could be adapted to develop distribution maps for other rare species of conservation concern. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Global warming not so harmful for all plants - response of holomycotrophic orchid species for the future climate change.

PubMed

Kolanowska, Marta; Kras, Marta; Lipińska, Monika; Mystkowska, Katarzyna; Szlachetko, Dariusz L; Naczk, Aleksandra M

2017-10-05

Current and expected changes in global climate are major threat for biological diversity affecting individuals, communities and ecosystems. However, there is no general trend in the plants response to the climate change. The aim of present study was to evaluate impact of the future climate changes on the distribution of holomycotrophic orchid species using ecological niche modeling approach. Three different scenarios of future climate changes were tested to obtain the most comprehensive insight in the possible habitat loss of 16 holomycotrophic orchids. The extinction of Cephalanthera austiniae was predicted in all analyses. The coverage of suitable niches of Pogoniopsis schenckii will decrease to 1-30% of its current extent. The reduction of at least 50% of climatic niche of Erythrorchis cassythoides and Limodorum abortivum will be observed. In turn, the coverage of suitable niches of Hexalectris spicata, Uleiorchis ulaei and Wullschlaegelia calcarata may be even 16-74 times larger than in the present time. The conducted niche modeling and analysis of the similarity of their climatic tolerance showed instead that the future modification of the coverage of their suitable niches will not be unified and the future climate changes may be not so harmful for holomycotrophic orchids as expected.

Ecological and geographical analysis of the distribution of the mountain tapir (Tapirus pinchaque) in Ecuador: importance of protected areas in future scenarios of global warming.

PubMed

Ortega-Andrade, H Mauricio; Prieto-Torres, David A; Gómez-Lora, Ignacio; Lizcano, Diego J

2015-01-01

In Ecuador, Tapirus pinchaque is considered to be critically endangered. Although the species has been registered in several localities, its geographic distribution remains unclear, and the effects of climate change and current land uses on this species are largely unknown. We modeled the ecological niche of T. pinchaque using MaxEnt, in order to assess its potential adaptation to present and future climate change scenarios. We evaluated the effects of habitat loss due by current land use, the ecosystem availability and importance of Ecuadorian System of Protected Areas into the models. The model of environmental suitability estimated an extent of occurrence for species of 21,729 km2 in all of Ecuador, mainly occurring along the corridor of the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. A total of 10 Andean ecosystems encompassed ~98% of the area defined by the model, with herbaceous paramo, northeastern Andean montane evergreen forest and northeastern Andes upper montane evergreen forest being the most representative. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction in model area (~17%) occurred, and the effect of climate change represented a net reduction up to 37.86%. However, the synergistic effect of both climate change and habitat loss, given current land use practices, could represent a greater risk in the short-term, leading to a net reduction of 19.90 to 44.65% in T. pinchaque's potential distribution. Even under such a scenarios, several Protected Areas harbor a portion (~36 to 48%) of the potential distribution defined by the models. However, the central and southern populations are highly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Based on these results and due to the restricted home range of T. pinchaque, its preference for upland forests and paramos, and its small estimated population size in the Andes, we suggest to maintaining its current status as Critically Endangered in Ecuador.

Ecological and Geographical Analysis of the Distribution of the Mountain Tapir (Tapirus pinchaque) in Ecuador: Importance of Protected Areas in Future Scenarios of Global Warming

PubMed Central

Ortega-Andrade, H. Mauricio; Prieto-Torres, David A.; Gómez-Lora, Ignacio; Lizcano, Diego J.

2015-01-01

In Ecuador, Tapirus pinchaque is considered to be critically endangered. Although the species has been registered in several localities, its geographic distribution remains unclear, and the effects of climate change and current land uses on this species are largely unknown. We modeled the ecological niche of T. pinchaque using MaxEnt, in order to assess its potential adaptation to present and future climate change scenarios. We evaluated the effects of habitat loss due by current land use, the ecosystem availability and importance of Ecuadorian System of Protected Areas into the models. The model of environmental suitability estimated an extent of occurrence for species of 21,729 km2 in all of Ecuador, mainly occurring along the corridor of the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. A total of 10 Andean ecosystems encompassed ~98% of the area defined by the model, with herbaceous paramo, northeastern Andean montane evergreen forest and northeastern Andes upper montane evergreen forest being the most representative. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction in model area (~17%) occurred, and the effect of climate change represented a net reduction up to 37.86%. However, the synergistic effect of both climate change and habitat loss, given current land use practices, could represent a greater risk in the short-term, leading to a net reduction of 19.90 to 44.65% in T. pinchaque’s potential distribution. Even under such a scenarios, several Protected Areas harbor a portion (~36 to 48%) of the potential distribution defined by the models. However, the central and southern populations are highly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Based on these results and due to the restricted home range of T. pinchaque, its preference for upland forests and paramos, and its small estimated population size in the Andes, we suggest to maintaining its current status as Critically Endangered in Ecuador. PMID:25798851

Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change.

PubMed

Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy

2015-01-01

Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems.

Persistence at distributional edges: Columbia spotted frog habitat in the arid Great Basin, USA

PubMed Central

Arkle, Robert S; Pilliod, David S

2015-01-01

A common challenge in the conservation of broadly distributed, yet imperiled species is understanding which factors facilitate persistence at distributional edges, locations where populations are often vulnerable to extirpation due to changes in climate, land use, or distributions of other species. For Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) in the Great Basin (USA), a genetically distinct population segment of conservation concern, we approached this problem by examining (1) landscape-scale habitat availability and distribution, (2) water body-scale habitat associations, and (3) resource management-identified threats to persistence. We found that areas with perennial aquatic habitat and suitable climate are extremely limited in the southern portion of the species’ range. Within these suitable areas, native and non-native predators (trout and American bullfrogs [Lithobates catesbeianus]) are widespread and may further limit habitat availability in upper- and lower-elevation areas, respectively. At the water body scale, spotted frog occupancy was associated with deeper sites containing abundant emergent vegetation and nontrout fish species. Streams with American beaver (Castor canadensis) frequently had these structural characteristics and were significantly more likely to be occupied than ponds, lakes, streams without beaver, or streams with inactive beaver ponds, highlighting the importance of active manipulation of stream environments by beaver. Native and non-native trout reduced the likelihood of spotted frog occupancy, especially where emergent vegetation cover was sparse. Intensive livestock grazing, low aquatic connectivity, and ephemeral hydroperiods were also negatively associated with spotted frog occupancy. We conclude that persistence of this species at the arid end of its range has been largely facilitated by habitat stability (i.e., permanent hydroperiod), connectivity, predator-free refugia, and a commensalistic interaction with an ecosystem engineer. Beaver-induced changes to habitat quality, stability, and connectivity may increase spotted frog population resistance and resilience to seasonal drought, grazing, non-native predators, and climate change, factors which threaten local or regional persistence. PMID:26380699