Modeling of the 10-micron natural laser emission from the mesospheres of Mars and Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deming, D.; Mumma, M. J.

1983-01-01

The NLTE radiative transfer problem is solved to obtain the 00 deg 1 vibrational state population. This model successfully reproduces the existing center-to-limb observations, although higher spatial resolution observations are needed for a definitive test. The model also predicts total fluxes which are close to the observed values. The strength of the emission is predicted to be closely related to the instantaneous near-IR solar heating rate.

Modeling Disjunct Gray Wolf Populations in Semi-Wild Landscapes

Treesearch

Robert G. Haight; David J. Mladenoff; Adrian P. Wydeven

1998-01-01

Gray wolves (Canis lupus) in parts of the United States and Europe live in networks of disjunct populations, many of which are close to human settlement. Because wolf management goals include sustaining disjunct populations, it is important to ask what types of areas and protections are needed for population survival. To predict the effects of different levels of human...

Movement and capture efficiency of radio-tagged salmonids sampled by electrofishing

Treesearch

Michael K. Young; David A. Schmetterling

2012-01-01

Electrofishing-based estimates of fish abundance are common. Most population models assume that samples are drawn froma closed population, but population closure is sometimes difficult to achieve. Consequently, we individually electrofished 103 radio-tagged trout of two species, westslope cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi and brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis...

Growth rates and variances of unexploited wolf populations in dynamic equilibria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John

2015-01-01

Several states have begun harvesting gray wolves (Canis lupus), and these states and various European countries are closely monitoring their wolf populations. To provide appropriate perspective for determining unusual or extreme fluctuations in their managed wolf populations, we analyzed natural, long-term, wolf-population-density trajectories totaling 130 years of data from 3 areas: Isle Royale National Park in Lake Superior, Michigan, USA; the east-central Superior National Forest in northeastern Minnesota, USA; and Denali National Park, Alaska, USA. Ratios between minimum and maximum annual sizes for 2 mainland populations (n = 28 and 46 yr) varied from 2.5–2.8, whereas for Isle Royale (n = 56 yr), the ratio was 6.3. The interquartile range (25th percentile, 75th percentile) for annual growth rates, Nt+1/Nt, was (0.88, 1.14), (0.92, 1.11), and (0.86, 1.12) for Denali, Superior National Forest, and Isle Royale respectively. We fit a density-independent model and a Ricker model to each time series, and in both cases we considered the potential for observation error. Mean growth rates from the density-independent model were close to 0 for all 3 populations, with 95% credible intervals including 0. We view the estimated model parameters, including those describing annual variability or process variance, as providing useful summaries of the trajectories of these populations. The estimates of these natural wolf population parameters can serve as benchmarks for comparison with those of recovering wolf populations. Because our study populations were all from circumscribed areas, fluctuations in them represent fluctuations in densities (i.e., changes in numbers are not confounded by changes in occupied area as would be the case with populations expanding their range, as are wolf populations in many states).

Modeling the effect of transient populations on epidemics in Washington DC.

PubMed

Parikh, Nidhi; Youssef, Mina; Swarup, Samarth; Eubank, Stephen

2013-11-06

Large numbers of transients visit big cities, where they come into contact with many people at crowded areas. However, epidemiological studies have not paid much attention to the role of this subpopulation in disease spread. We evaluate the effect of transients on epidemics by extending a synthetic population model for the Washington DC metro area to include leisure and business travelers. A synthetic population is obtained by combining multiple data sources to build a detailed minute-by-minute simulation of population interaction resulting in a contact network. We simulate an influenza-like illness over the contact network to evaluate the effects of transients on the number of infected residents. We find that there are significantly more infections when transients are considered. Since much population mixing happens at major tourism locations, we evaluate two targeted interventions: closing museums and promoting healthy behavior (such as the use of hand sanitizers, covering coughs, etc.) at museums. Surprisingly, closing museums has no beneficial effect. However, promoting healthy behavior at the museums can both reduce and delay the epidemic peak. We analytically derive the reproductive number and perform stability analysis using an ODE-based model.

Modeling the effect of transient populations on epidemics in Washington DC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parikh, Nidhi; Youssef, Mina; Swarup, Samarth; Eubank, Stephen

2013-11-01

Large numbers of transients visit big cities, where they come into contact with many people at crowded areas. However, epidemiological studies have not paid much attention to the role of this subpopulation in disease spread. We evaluate the effect of transients on epidemics by extending a synthetic population model for the Washington DC metro area to include leisure and business travelers. A synthetic population is obtained by combining multiple data sources to build a detailed minute-by-minute simulation of population interaction resulting in a contact network. We simulate an influenza-like illness over the contact network to evaluate the effects of transients on the number of infected residents. We find that there are significantly more infections when transients are considered. Since much population mixing happens at major tourism locations, we evaluate two targeted interventions: closing museums and promoting healthy behavior (such as the use of hand sanitizers, covering coughs, etc.) at museums. Surprisingly, closing museums has no beneficial effect. However, promoting healthy behavior at the museums can both reduce and delay the epidemic peak. We analytically derive the reproductive number and perform stability analysis using an ODE-based model.

Entrainment and Control of Bacterial Populations: An in Silico Study over a Spatially Extended Agent Based Model.

PubMed

Mina, Petros; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira; Bernardo, Mario di

2016-07-15

We extend a spatially explicit agent based model (ABM) developed previously to investigate entrainment and control of the emergent behavior of a population of synchronized oscillating cells in a microfluidic chamber. Unlike most of the work in models of control of cellular systems which focus on temporal changes, we model individual cells with spatial dependencies which may contribute to certain behavioral responses. We use the model to investigate the response of both open loop and closed loop strategies, such as proportional control (P-control), proportional-integral control (PI-control) and proportional-integral-derivative control (PID-control), to heterogeinities and growth in the cell population, variations of the control parameters and spatial effects such as diffusion in the spatially explicit setting of a microfluidic chamber setup. We show that, as expected from the theory of phase locking in dynamical systems, open loop control can only entrain the cell population in a subset of forcing periods, with a wide variety of dynamical behaviors obtained outside these regions of entrainment. Closed-loop control is shown instead to guarantee entrainment in a much wider region of control parameter space although presenting limitations when the population size increases over a certain threshold. In silico tracking experiments are also performed to validate the ability of classical control approaches to achieve other reference behaviors such as a desired constant output or a linearly varying one. All simulations are carried out in BSim, an advanced agent-based simulator of microbial population which is here extended ad hoc to include the effects of control strategies acting onto the population.

The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

PubMed

Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

2017-02-01

Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

Change-in-ratio methods for estimating population size

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; McCullough, Dale R.; Barrett, Reginald H.

2002-01-01

Change-in-ratio (CIR) methods can provide an effective, low cost approach for estimating the size of wildlife populations. They rely on being able to observe changes in proportions of population subclasses that result from the removal of a known number of individuals from the population. These methods were first introduced in the 1940’s to estimate the size of populations with 2 subclasses under the assumption of equal subclass encounter probabilities. Over the next 40 years, closed population CIR models were developed to consider additional subclasses and use additional sampling periods. Models with assumptions about how encounter probabilities vary over time, rather than between subclasses, also received some attention. Recently, all of these CIR models have been shown to be special cases of a more general model. Under the general model, information from additional samples can be used to test assumptions about the encounter probabilities and to provide estimates of subclass sizes under relaxations of these assumptions. These developments have greatly extended the applicability of the methods. CIR methods are attractive because they do not require the marking of individuals, and subclass proportions often can be estimated with relatively simple sampling procedures. However, CIR methods require a carefully monitored removal of individuals from the population, and the estimates will be of poor quality unless the removals induce substantial changes in subclass proportions. In this paper, we review the state of the art for closed population estimation with CIR methods. Our emphasis is on the assumptions of CIR methods and on identifying situations where these methods are likely to be effective. We also identify some important areas for future CIR research.

A Model for Developing Clinical Analytics Capacity: Closing the Loops on Outcomes to Optimize Quality.

PubMed

Eggert, Corinne; Moselle, Kenneth; Protti, Denis; Sanders, Dale

2017-01-01

Closed Loop Analytics© is receiving growing interest in healthcare as a term referring to information technology, local data and clinical analytics working together to generate evidence for improvement. The Closed Loop Analytics model consists of three loops corresponding to the decision-making levels of an organization and the associated data within each loop - Patients, Protocols, and Populations. The authors propose that each of these levels should utilize the same ecosystem of electronic health record (EHR) and enterprise data warehouse (EDW) enabled data, in a closed-loop fashion, with that data being repackaged and delivered to suit the analytic and decision support needs of each level, in support of better outcomes.

Individual heterogeneity and identifiability in capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.

2004-01-01

Individual heterogeneity in detection probabilities is a far more serious problem for capture-recapture modeling than has previously been recognized. In this note, I illustrate that population size is not an identifiable parameter under the general closed population mark-recapture model Mh. The problem of identifiability is obvious if the population includes individuals with pi = 0, but persists even when it is assumed that individual detection probabilities are bounded away from zero. Identifiability may be attained within parametric families of distributions for pi, but not among parametric families of distributions. Consequently, in the presence of individual heterogeneity in detection probability, capture-recapture analysis is strongly model dependent.

Characterization of the 2012-044C Briz-M Upper Stage Breakup

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, Joseph A.; Matney, Mark

2013-01-01

The NASA breakup model prediction was close to the observed population for catalog objects. The NASA breakup model predicted a larger population than was observed for objects under 10 cm. The stare technique produces low observation counts, but is readily comparable to model predictions. Customized stare parameters (Az, El, Range) were effective to increase the opportunities for HAX to observe the debris cloud. Other techniques to increase observation count will be considered for future breakup events.

Establishing a beachhead: A stochastic population model with an Allee effect applied to species invasion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackleh, A.S.; Allen, L.J.S.; Carter, J.

2007-01-01

We formulated a spatially explicit stochastic population model with an Allee effect in order to explore how invasive species may become established. In our model, we varied the degree of migration between local populations and used an Allee effect with variable birth and death rates. Because of the stochastic component, population sizes below the Allee effect threshold may still have a positive probability for successful invasion. The larger the network of populations, the greater the probability of an invasion occurring when initial population sizes are close to or above the Allee threshold. Furthermore, if migration rates are low, one or more than one patch may be successfully invaded, while if migration rates are high all patches are invaded. ?? 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Albatross populations in peril: A population trajectory for Black-browed Albatrosses at South Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arnold, J.M.; Brault, Solange; Croxall, J.P.

2006-01-01

Simulation modeling was used to reconstruct Black-browed Albatross (Diomedea melanophris) population trends. Close approximations to observed data were accomplished by annually varying survival rates, reproductive success, and probabilities of returning to breed given success in previous years. The temporal shift in annual values coincided with the start of longline fishing at South Georgia and potential changes in krill abundance. We used 23 years of demographic data from long-term studies of a breeding colony of this species at Bird Island, South Georgia, to validate our model. When we used annual parameter estimates for survival, reproductive success, and probabilities of returning to breed given success in previous years, our model trajectory closely followed the observed changes in breeding population size over time. Population growth rate was below replacement (lambda < 1) in most years and was most sensitive to changes in adult survival. This supports the recent IUCN uplisting of this species from “Vulnerable” to “Endangered.” Comparison of pre-1988 and post-1988 demography (before and after the inception of a longline fishery in the breeding area) reveals a decrease in lambda from 0.963 to 0.910. A life table response experiment (LTRE) showed that this decline in lambda was caused mostly by declines in survival of adults. If 1988–1998 demographic rates are maintained, the model predicts a 98% chance of a population of fewer than 25 pairs within 78 years. For this population to recover to a status under which it could be “delisted,” a 10% increase in survival of all age classes would be needed.

Reconstructing Native American migrations from whole-genome and whole-exome data.

PubMed

Gravel, Simon; Zakharia, Fouad; Moreno-Estrada, Andres; Byrnes, Jake K; Muzzio, Marina; Rodriguez-Flores, Juan L; Kenny, Eimear E; Gignoux, Christopher R; Maples, Brian K; Guiblet, Wilfried; Dutil, Julie; Via, Marc; Sandoval, Karla; Bedoya, Gabriel; Oleksyk, Taras K; Ruiz-Linares, Andres; Burchard, Esteban G; Martinez-Cruzado, Juan Carlos; Bustamante, Carlos D

2013-01-01

There is great scientific and popular interest in understanding the genetic history of populations in the Americas. We wish to understand when different regions of the continent were inhabited, where settlers came from, and how current inhabitants relate genetically to earlier populations. Recent studies unraveled parts of the genetic history of the continent using genotyping arrays and uniparental markers. The 1000 Genomes Project provides a unique opportunity for improving our understanding of population genetic history by providing over a hundred sequenced low coverage genomes and exomes from Colombian (CLM), Mexican-American (MXL), and Puerto Rican (PUR) populations. Here, we explore the genomic contributions of African, European, and especially Native American ancestry to these populations. Estimated Native American ancestry is 48% in MXL, 25% in CLM, and 13% in PUR. Native American ancestry in PUR is most closely related to populations surrounding the Orinoco River basin, confirming the Southern American ancestry of the Taíno people of the Caribbean. We present new methods to estimate the allele frequencies in the Native American fraction of the populations, and model their distribution using a demographic model for three ancestral Native American populations. These ancestral populations likely split in close succession: the most likely scenario, based on a peopling of the Americas 16 thousand years ago (kya), supports that the MXL Ancestors split 12.2kya, with a subsequent split of the ancestors to CLM and PUR 11.7kya. The model also features effective populations of 62,000 in Mexico, 8,700 in Colombia, and 1,900 in Puerto Rico. Modeling Identity-by-descent (IBD) and ancestry tract length, we show that post-contact populations also differ markedly in their effective sizes and migration patterns, with Puerto Rico showing the smallest effective size and the earlier migration from Europe. Finally, we compare IBD and ancestry assignments to find evidence for relatedness among European founders to the three populations.

Reconstructing Native American Migrations from Whole-Genome and Whole-Exome Data

PubMed Central

Gravel, Simon; Muzzio, Marina; Rodriguez-Flores, Juan L.; Kenny, Eimear E.; Gignoux, Christopher R.; Maples, Brian K.; Guiblet, Wilfried; Dutil, Julie; Via, Marc; Sandoval, Karla; Bedoya, Gabriel; Oleksyk, Taras K.; Ruiz-Linares, Andres; Burchard, Esteban G.; Martinez-Cruzado, Juan Carlos; Bustamante, Carlos D.

2013-01-01

There is great scientific and popular interest in understanding the genetic history of populations in the Americas. We wish to understand when different regions of the continent were inhabited, where settlers came from, and how current inhabitants relate genetically to earlier populations. Recent studies unraveled parts of the genetic history of the continent using genotyping arrays and uniparental markers. The 1000 Genomes Project provides a unique opportunity for improving our understanding of population genetic history by providing over a hundred sequenced low coverage genomes and exomes from Colombian (CLM), Mexican-American (MXL), and Puerto Rican (PUR) populations. Here, we explore the genomic contributions of African, European, and especially Native American ancestry to these populations. Estimated Native American ancestry is in MXL, in CLM, and in PUR. Native American ancestry in PUR is most closely related to populations surrounding the Orinoco River basin, confirming the Southern America ancestry of the Taíno people of the Caribbean. We present new methods to estimate the allele frequencies in the Native American fraction of the populations, and model their distribution using a demographic model for three ancestral Native American populations. These ancestral populations likely split in close succession: the most likely scenario, based on a peopling of the Americas thousand years ago (kya), supports that the MXL Ancestors split kya, with a subsequent split of the ancestors to CLM and PUR kya. The model also features effective populations of in Mexico, in Colombia, and in Puerto Rico. Modeling Identity-by-descent (IBD) and ancestry tract length, we show that post-contact populations also differ markedly in their effective sizes and migration patterns, with Puerto Rico showing the smallest effective size and the earlier migration from Europe. Finally, we compare IBD and ancestry assignments to find evidence for relatedness among European founders to the three populations. PMID:24385924

Sampling ARG of multiple populations under complex configurations of subdivision and admixture.

PubMed

Carrieri, Anna Paola; Utro, Filippo; Parida, Laxmi

2016-04-01

Simulating complex evolution scenarios of multiple populations is an important task for answering many basic questions relating to population genomics. Apart from the population samples, the underlying Ancestral Recombinations Graph (ARG) is an additional important means in hypothesis checking and reconstruction studies. Furthermore, complex simulations require a plethora of interdependent parameters making even the scenario-specification highly non-trivial. We present an algorithm SimRA that simulates generic multiple population evolution model with admixture. It is based on random graphs that improve dramatically in time and space requirements of the classical algorithm of single populations.Using the underlying random graphs model, we also derive closed forms of expected values of the ARG characteristics i.e., height of the graph, number of recombinations, number of mutations and population diversity in terms of its defining parameters. This is crucial in aiding the user to specify meaningful parameters for the complex scenario simulations, not through trial-and-error based on raw compute power but intelligent parameter estimation. To the best of our knowledge this is the first time closed form expressions have been computed for the ARG properties. We show that the expected values closely match the empirical values through simulations.Finally, we demonstrate that SimRA produces the ARG in compact forms without compromising any accuracy. We demonstrate the compactness and accuracy through extensive experiments. SimRA (Simulation based on Random graph Algorithms) source, executable, user manual and sample input-output sets are available for downloading at: https://github.com/ComputationalGenomics/SimRA CONTACT: : parida@us.ibm.com Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The use of a robust capture-recapture design in small mammal population studies: A field example with Microtus pennsylvanicus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Hines, James E.

1984-01-01

The robust design of Pollock (1982) was used to estimate parameters of a Maryland M. pennsylvanicus population. Closed model tests provided strong evidence of heterogeneity of capture probability, and model M eta (Otis et al., 1978) was selected as the most appropriate model for estimating population size. The Jolly-Seber model goodness-of-fit test indicated rejection of the model for this data set, and the M eta estimates of population size were all higher than the Jolly-Seber estimates. Both of these results are consistent with the evidence of heterogeneous capture probabilities. The authors thus used M eta estimates of population size, Jolly-Seber estimates of survival rate, and estimates of birth-immigration based on a combination of the population size and survival rate estimates. Advantages of the robust design estimates for certain inference procedures are discussed, and the design is recommended for future small mammal capture-recapture studies directed at estimation.

Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

PubMed

Sawaya, Michael A; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Clevenger, Anthony P; Gibeau, Michael L; Kalinowski, Steven T

2012-01-01

We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008) and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17) and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

Estimating Grizzly and Black Bear Population Abundance and Trend in Banff National Park Using Noninvasive Genetic Sampling

PubMed Central

Sawaya, Michael A.; Stetz, Jeffrey B.; Clevenger, Anthony P.; Gibeau, Michael L.; Kalinowski, Steven T.

2012-01-01

We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears ( = 73.5, 95% CI = 64–94 in 2006;  = 50.4, 95% CI = 49–59 in 2008) and black bears ( = 62.6, 95% CI = 51–89 in 2006;  = 81.8, 95% CI = 72–102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males ( = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74–1.17) and females ( = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67–1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains. PMID:22567089

REVIEWS OF TOPICAL PROBLEMS: Population synthesis in astrophysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popov, S. B.; Prokhorov, M. E.

2007-11-01

Population synthesis is a method for numerical simulation of the population of objects with a complex evolution. This method is widely used in astrophysics. We consider its main applications to studying astronomical objects. Examples of modeling evolution are given for populations of close binaries and isolated neutron stars. The application of the method to studying active galactic nuclei and the integral spectral characteristics of galaxies is briefly discussed. An extensive bibliography on all the topics covered is provided.

Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.

2015-01-01

Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

Exploration of Multi-State Conformational Dynamics and Underlying Global Functional Landscape of Maltose Binding Protein

PubMed Central

Wang, Yong; Tang, Chun; Wang, Erkang; Wang, Jin

2012-01-01

An increasing number of biological machines have been revealed to have more than two macroscopic states. Quantifying the underlying multiple-basin functional landscape is essential for understanding their functions. However, the present models seem to be insufficient to describe such multiple-state systems. To meet this challenge, we have developed a coarse grained triple-basin structure-based model with implicit ligand. Based on our model, the constructed functional landscape is sufficiently sampled by the brute-force molecular dynamics simulation. We explored maltose-binding protein (MBP) which undergoes large-scale domain motion between open, apo-closed (partially closed) and holo-closed (fully closed) states responding to ligand binding. We revealed an underlying mechanism whereby major induced fit and minor population shift pathways co-exist by quantitative flux analysis. We found that the hinge regions play an important role in the functional dynamics as well as that increases in its flexibility promote population shifts. This finding provides a theoretical explanation of the mechanistic discrepancies in PBP protein family. We also found a functional “backtracking” behavior that favors conformational change. We further explored the underlying folding landscape in response to ligand binding. Consistent with earlier experimental findings, the presence of ligand increases the cooperativity and stability of MBP. This work provides the first study to explore the folding dynamics and functional dynamics under the same theoretical framework using our triple-basin functional model. PMID:22532792

Spatial structuring within a reservoir fish population: implications for management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, David R.; Long, James M.; Shoup, Daniel E.

2014-01-01

Spatial structuring in reservoir fish populations can exist because of environmental gradients, species-specific behaviour, or even localised fishing effort. The present study investigated whether white crappie exhibited evidence of improved population structure where the northern more productive half of a lake is closed to fishing to provide waterfowl hunting opportunities. Population response to angling was modelled for each substock of white crappie (north (protected) and south (unprotected) areas), the entire lake (single-stock model) and by combining simulations of the two independent substock models (additive model). White crappie in the protected area were more abundant, consisting of larger, older individuals, and exhibited a lower total annual mortality rate than in the unprotected area. Population modelling found that fishing mortality rates between 0.1 and 0.3 resulted in sustainable populations (spawning potential ratios (SPR) >0.30). The population in the unprotected area appeared to be more resilient (SPR > 0.30) at the higher fishing intensities (0.35–0.55). Considered additively, the whole-lake fishery appeared more resilient than when modelled as a single-panmictic stock. These results provided evidence of spatial structuring in reservoir fish populations, and we recommend model assessments used to guide management decisions should consider those spatial differences in other populations where they exist.

Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

2013-01-01

Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

Including the Group Quarters Population in the US Synthesized Population Database

PubMed Central

Chasteen, Bernadette M.; Wheaton, William D.; Cooley, Philip C.; Ganapathi, Laxminarayana; Wagener, Diane K.

2011-01-01

In 2005, RTI International researchers developed methods to generate synthesized population data on US households for the US Synthesized Population Database. These data are used in agent-based modeling, which simulates large-scale social networks to test how changes in the behaviors of individuals affect the overall network. Group quarters are residences where individuals live in close proximity and interact frequently. Although the Synthesized Population Database represents the population living in households, data for the nation’s group quarters residents are not easily quantified because of US Census Bureau reporting methods designed to protect individuals’ privacy. Including group quarters population data can be an important factor in agent-based modeling because the number of residents and the frequency of their interactions are variables that directly affect modeling results. Particularly with infectious disease modeling, the increased frequency of agent interaction may increase the probability of infectious disease transmission between individuals and the probability of disease outbreaks. This report reviews our methods to synthesize data on group quarters residents to match US Census Bureau data. Our goal in developing the Group Quarters Population Database was to enable its use with RTI’s US Synthesized Population Database in the Modeling of Infectious Diseases Agent Study. PMID:21841972

Massive stars in advanced evolutionary stages, and the progenitor of GW150914

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamann, Wolf-Rainer; Oskinova, Lidia; Todt, Helge; Sander, Andreas; Hainich, Rainer; Shenar, Tomer; Ramachandran, Varsha

2017-11-01

The recent discovery of a gravitational wave from the merging of two black holes of about 30 solar masses each challenges our incomplete understanding of massive stars and their evolution. Critical ingredients comprise mass-loss, rotation, magnetic fields, internal mixing, and mass transfer in close binary systems. The imperfect knowledge of these factors implies large uncertainties for models of stellar populations and their feedback. In this contribution we summarize our empirical studies of Wolf-Rayet populations at different metallicities by means of modern non-LTE stellar atmosphere models, and confront these results with the predictions of stellar evolution models. At the metallicity of our Galaxy, stellar winds are probably too strong to leave remnant masses as high as ~30 M⊙, but given the still poor agreement between evolutionary tracks and observation even this conclusion is debatable. At the low metallicity of the Small Magellanic Cloud, all WN stars which are (at least now) single are consistent with evolving quasi-homogeneously. O and B-type stars, in contrast, seem to comply with standard evolutionary models without strong internal mixing. Close binaries which avoided early merging could evolve quasi-homogeneously and lead to close compact remnants of relatively high masses that merge within a Hubble time.

Measuring genetic distances between breeds: use of some distances in various short term evolution models

PubMed Central

Laval, Guillaume; SanCristobal, Magali; Chevalet, Claude

2002-01-01

Many works demonstrate the benefits of using highly polymorphic markers such as microsatellites in order to measure the genetic diversity between closely related breeds. But it is sometimes difficult to decide which genetic distance should be used. In this paper we review the behaviour of the main distances encountered in the literature in various divergence models. In the first part, we consider that breeds are populations in which the assumption of equilibrium between drift and mutation is verified. In this case some interesting distances can be expressed as a function of divergence time, t, and therefore can be used to construct phylogenies. Distances based on allele size distribution (such as (δμ)2 and derived distances), taking a mutation model of microsatellites, the Stepwise Mutation Model, specifically into account, exhibit large variance and therefore should not be used to accurately infer phylogeny of closely related breeds. In the last section, we will consider that breeds are small populations and that the divergence times between them are too small to consider that the observed diversity is due to mutations: divergence is mainly due to genetic drift. Expectation and variance of distances were calculated as a function of the Wright-Malécot inbreeding coefficient, F. Computer simulations performed under this divergence model show that the Reynolds distance [57]is the best method for very closely related breeds. PMID:12270106

A General Model of Negative Frequency Dependent Selection Explains Global Patterns of Human ABO Polymorphism

PubMed Central

Villanea, Fernando A.; Safi, Kristin N.; Busch, Jeremiah W.

2015-01-01

The ABO locus in humans is characterized by elevated heterozygosity and very similar allele frequencies among populations scattered across the globe. Using knowledge of ABO protein function, we generated a simple model of asymmetric negative frequency dependent selection and genetic drift to explain the maintenance of ABO polymorphism and its loss in human populations. In our models, regardless of the strength of selection, models with large effective population sizes result in ABO allele frequencies that closely match those observed in most continental populations. Populations must be moderately small to fall out of equilibrium and lose either the A or B allele (Ne ≤ 50) and much smaller (N e ≤ 25) for the complete loss of diversity, which nearly always involved the fixation of the O allele. A pattern of low heterozygosity at the ABO locus where loss of polymorphism occurs in our model is consistent with small populations, such as Native American populations. This study provides a general evolutionary model to explain the observed global patterns of polymorphism at the ABO locus and the pattern of allele loss in small populations. Moreover, these results inform the range of population sizes associated with the recent human colonization of the Americas. PMID:25946124

Closed-loop control of epileptiform activities in a neural population model using a proportional-derivative controller

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun-Song; Wang, Mei-Li; Li, Xiao-Li; Ernst, Niebur

2015-03-01

Epilepsy is believed to be caused by a lack of balance between excitation and inhibitation in the brain. A promising strategy for the control of the disease is closed-loop brain stimulation. How to determine the stimulation control parameters for effective and safe treatment protocols remains, however, an unsolved question. To constrain the complex dynamics of the biological brain, we use a neural population model (NPM). We propose that a proportional-derivative (PD) type closed-loop control can successfully suppress epileptiform activities. First, we determine the stability of root loci, which reveals that the dynamical mechanism underlying epilepsy in the NPM is the loss of homeostatic control caused by the lack of balance between excitation and inhibition. Then, we design a PD type closed-loop controller to stabilize the unstable NPM such that the homeostatic equilibriums are maintained; we show that epileptiform activities are successfully suppressed. A graphical approach is employed to determine the stabilizing region of the PD controller in the parameter space, providing a theoretical guideline for the selection of the PD control parameters. Furthermore, we establish the relationship between the control parameters and the model parameters in the form of stabilizing regions to help understand the mechanism of suppressing epileptiform activities in the NPM. Simulations show that the PD-type closed-loop control strategy can effectively suppress epileptiform activities in the NPM. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61473208, 61025019, and 91132722), ONR MURI N000141010278, and NIH grant R01EY016281.

Metapopulation models for historical inference.

PubMed

Wakeley, John

2004-04-01

The genealogical process for a sample from a metapopulation, in which local populations are connected by migration and can undergo extinction and subsequent recolonization, is shown to have a relatively simple structure in the limit as the number of populations in the metapopulation approaches infinity. The result, which is an approximation to the ancestral behaviour of samples from a metapopulation with a large number of populations, is the same as that previously described for other metapopulation models, namely that the genealogical process is closely related to Kingman's unstructured coalescent. The present work considers a more general class of models that includes two kinds of extinction and recolonization, and the possibility that gamete production precedes extinction. In addition, following other recent work, this result for a metapopulation divided into many populations is shown to hold both for finite population sizes and in the usual diffusion limit, which assumes that population sizes are large. Examples illustrate when the usual diffusion limit is appropriate and when it is not. Some shortcomings and extensions of the model are considered, and the relevance of such models to understanding human history is discussed.

Ecological drivers of guanaco recruitment: variable carrying capacity and density dependence.

PubMed

Marino, Andrea; Pascual, Miguel; Baldi, Ricardo

2014-08-01

Ungulates living in predator-free reserves offer the opportunity to study the influence of food limitation on population dynamics without the potentially confounding effects of top-down regulation or livestock competition. We assessed the influence of relative forage availability and population density on guanaco recruitment in two predator-free reserves in eastern Patagonia, with contrasting scenarios of population density. We also explored the relative contribution of the observed recruitment to population growth using a deterministic linear model to test the assumption that the studied populations were closed units. The observed densities increased twice as fast as our theoretical populations, indicating that marked immigration has taken place during the recovery phase experienced by both populations, thus we rejected the closed-population assumption. Regarding the factors driving variation in recruitment, in the low- to medium-density setting, we found a positive linear relationship between recruitment and surrogates of annual primary production, whereas no density dependence was detected. In contrast, in the high-density scenario, both annual primary production and population density showed marked effects, indicating a positive relationship between recruitment and per capita food availability above a food-limitation threshold. Our results support the idea that environmental carrying capacity fluctuates in response to climatic variation, and that these fluctuations have relevant consequences for herbivore dynamics, such as amplifying density dependence in drier years. We conclude that including the coupling between environmental variability in resources and density dependence is crucial to model ungulate population dynamics; to overlook temporal changes in carrying capacity may even mask density dependence as well as other important processes.

Modelling the Effects of Electrical Coupling between Unmyelinated Axons of Brainstem Neurons Controlling Rhythmic Activity

PubMed Central

Hull, Michael J.; Soffe, Stephen R.; Willshaw, David J.; Roberts, Alan

2015-01-01

Gap junctions between fine unmyelinated axons can electrically couple groups of brain neurons to synchronise firing and contribute to rhythmic activity. To explore the distribution and significance of electrical coupling, we modelled a well analysed, small population of brainstem neurons which drive swimming in young frog tadpoles. A passive network of 30 multicompartmental neurons with unmyelinated axons was used to infer that: axon-axon gap junctions close to the soma gave the best match to experimentally measured coupling coefficients; axon diameter had a strong influence on coupling; most neurons were coupled indirectly via the axons of other neurons. When active channels were added, gap junctions could make action potential propagation along the thin axons unreliable. Increased sodium and decreased potassium channel densities in the initial axon segment improved action potential propagation. Modelling suggested that the single spike firing to step current injection observed in whole-cell recordings is not a cellular property but a dynamic consequence of shunting resulting from electrical coupling. Without electrical coupling, firing of the population during depolarising current was unsynchronised; with coupling, the population showed synchronous recruitment and rhythmic firing. When activated instead by increasing levels of modelled sensory pathway input, the population without electrical coupling was recruited incrementally to unpatterned activity. However, when coupled, the population was recruited all-or-none at threshold into a rhythmic swimming pattern: the tadpole “decided” to swim. Modelling emphasises uncertainties about fine unmyelinated axon physiology but, when informed by biological data, makes general predictions about gap junctions: locations close to the soma; relatively small numbers; many indirect connections between neurons; cause of action potential propagation failure in fine axons; misleading alteration of intrinsic firing properties. Modelling also indicates that electrical coupling within a population can synchronize recruitment of neurons and their pacemaker firing during rhythmic activity. PMID:25954930

Mean Field Analysis of Large-Scale Interacting Populations of Stochastic Conductance-Based Spiking Neurons Using the Klimontovich Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gandolfo, Daniel; Rodriguez, Roger; Tuckwell, Henry C.

2017-03-01

We investigate the dynamics of large-scale interacting neural populations, composed of conductance based, spiking model neurons with modifiable synaptic connection strengths, which are possibly also subjected to external noisy currents. The network dynamics is controlled by a set of neural population probability distributions (PPD) which are constructed along the same lines as in the Klimontovich approach to the kinetic theory of plasmas. An exact non-closed, nonlinear, system of integro-partial differential equations is derived for the PPDs. As is customary, a closing procedure leads to a mean field limit. The equations we have obtained are of the same type as those which have been recently derived using rigorous techniques of probability theory. The numerical solutions of these so called McKean-Vlasov-Fokker-Planck equations, which are only valid in the limit of infinite size networks, actually shows that the statistical measures as obtained from PPDs are in good agreement with those obtained through direct integration of the stochastic dynamical system for large but finite size networks. Although numerical solutions have been obtained for networks of Fitzhugh-Nagumo model neurons, which are often used to approximate Hodgkin-Huxley model neurons, the theory can be readily applied to networks of general conductance-based model neurons of arbitrary dimension.

Density dependence and risk of extinction in a small population of sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, L.R.; Buenau, K.E.; VanBlaricom, G.

2004-01-01

Sea otters (Enhydra lutris (L.)) were hunted to extinction off the coast of Washington State early in the 20th century. A new population was established by translocations from Alaska in 1969 and 1970. The population, currently numbering at least 550 animals, A major threat to the population is the ongoing risk of majour oil spills in sea otter habitat. We apply population models to census and demographic data in order to evaluate the status of the population. We fit several density dependent models to test for density dependence and determine plausible values for the carrying capacity (K) by comparing model goodness of fit to an exponential model. Model fits were compared using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). A significant negative relationship was found between the population growth rate and population size (r2=0.27, F=5.57, df=16, p<0.05), suggesting density dependence in Washington state sea otters. Information criterion statistics suggest that the model is the most parsimonious, followed closely by the logistic Beverton-Holt model. Values of K ranged from 612 to 759 with best-fit parameter estimates for the Beverton-Holt model including 0.26 for r and 612 for K. The latest (2001) population index count (555) puts the population at 87-92% of the estimated carrying capacity, above the suggested range for optimum sustainable population (OSP). Elasticity analysis was conducted to examine the effects of proportional changes in vital rates on the population growth rate (??). The elasticity values indicate the population is most sensitive to changes in survival rates (particularly adult survival).

Modelling population dynamics and response to management options in the poultry red mite Dermanyssus gallinae (Acari: Dermanyssidae).

PubMed

Huber, K; Zenner, L; Bicout, D J

2011-02-28

The poultry red mite Dermanyssus gallinae is a major pest and widespread ectoparasite of laying hens and other domestic and wild birds. Under optimal conditions, D. gallinae can complete its lifecycle in less than 10 days, leading to rapid proliferation of populations in poultry systems. This paper focuses on developing a theoretical model framework to describe the population dynamics of D. gallinae. This model is then used to test the efficacy and residual effect of different control options for managing D. gallinae. As well as allowing comparison between treatment options, the model also allows comparison of treatment efficacies to different D. gallinae life stages. Three different means for controlling D. gallinae populations were subjected to the model using computer simulations: mechanical cleaning (killing once at a given time all accessible population stages), sanitary clearance (starving the mite population for a given duration, e.g. between flocks) and acaricide treatment (killing a proportion of nymphs and adults during the persistence of the treatment). Simulations showed that mechanical cleaning and sanitary clearance alone could not eradicate the model D. gallinae population, although these methods did delay population establishment. In contrast, the complete eradication of the model D. gallinae population was achieved by several successive acaricide treatments in close succession, even when a relatively low treatment level was used. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Model error in covariance structure models: Some implications for power and Type I error

PubMed Central

Coffman, Donna L.

2010-01-01

The present study investigated the degree to which violation of the parameter drift assumption affects the Type I error rate for the test of close fit and power analysis procedures proposed by MacCallum, Browne, and Sugawara (1996) for both the test of close fit and the test of exact fit. The parameter drift assumption states that as sample size increases both sampling error and model error (i.e. the degree to which the model is an approximation in the population) decrease. Model error was introduced using a procedure proposed by Cudeck and Browne (1992). The empirical power for both the test of close fit, in which the null hypothesis specifies that the Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) ≤ .05, and the test of exact fit, in which the null hypothesis specifies that RMSEA = 0, is compared with the theoretical power computed using the MacCallum et al. (1996) procedure. The empirical power and theoretical power for both the test of close fit and the test of exact fit are nearly identical under violations of the assumption. The results also indicated that the test of close fit maintains the nominal Type I error rate under violations of the assumption. PMID:21331302

A network-based approach for resistance transmission in bacterial populations.

PubMed

Gehring, Ronette; Schumm, Phillip; Youssef, Mina; Scoglio, Caterina

2010-01-07

Horizontal transfer of mobile genetic elements (conjugation) is an important mechanism whereby resistance is spread through bacterial populations. The aim of our work is to develop a mathematical model that quantitatively describes this process, and to use this model to optimize antimicrobial dosage regimens to minimize resistance development. The bacterial population is conceptualized as a compartmental mathematical model to describe changes in susceptible, resistant, and transconjugant bacteria over time. This model is combined with a compartmental pharmacokinetic model to explore the effect of different plasma drug concentration profiles. An agent-based simulation tool is used to account for resistance transfer occurring when two bacteria are adjacent or in close proximity. In addition, a non-linear programming optimal control problem is introduced to minimize bacterial populations as well as the drug dose. Simulation and optimization results suggest that the rapid death of susceptible individuals in the population is pivotal in minimizing the number of transconjugants in a population. This supports the use of potent antimicrobials that rapidly kill susceptible individuals and development of dosage regimens that maintain effective antimicrobial drug concentrations for as long as needed to kill off the susceptible population. Suggestions are made for experiments to test the hypotheses generated by these simulations.

Fitted Fourier-pseudospectral methods for solving a delayed reaction-diffusion partial differential equation in biology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adam, A. M. A.; Bashier, E. B. M.; Hashim, M. H. A.; Patidar, K. C.

2017-07-01

In this work, we design and analyze a fitted numerical method to solve a reaction-diffusion model with time delay, namely, a delayed version of a population model which is an extension of the logistic growth (LG) equation for a food-limited population proposed by Smith [F.E. Smith, Population dynamics in Daphnia magna and a new model for population growth, Ecology 44 (1963) 651-663]. Seeing that the analytical solution (in closed form) is hard to obtain, we seek for a robust numerical method. The method consists of a Fourier-pseudospectral semi-discretization in space and a fitted operator implicit-explicit scheme in temporal direction. The proposed method is analyzed for convergence and we found that it is unconditionally stable. Illustrative numerical results will be presented at the conference.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hyman, James M; Restrepo, Juan M; Rael, Rosalyn C

We propose a population dynamics model for quantifying the effects of polling data on the outcome of multi-party elections decided by a majority-rule voting process. We divide the population into two groups: committed voters impervious to polling data, and susceptible voters whose decision to vote is influenced by data, depending on its reliability. This population-based approach to modeling the process sidesteps the problem of upscaling models based upon the choices made by individuals. We find releasing poll data is not advantageous to leading candidates, but it can be exploited by those closely trailing. The analysis identifies the particular type ofmore » voting impetus at play in different stages of an election and could help strategists optimize their influence on susceptible voters.« less

Three-Month Study of College Student Disordered Gambling Using the Transtheoretical Model: Findings and Lessons Learned

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Ryan J.; Usdan, Stuart; Turner, Lori

2012-01-01

Problem: It has been suggested that gambling-related research more closely examine vulnerable population segments. Research indicates that college students are particularly vulnerable to experiencing disordered gambling behavior. Methods: We examined the gambling behavior and gambling-related Transtheoretical Model (TTM) construct (i.e., stage of…

Dynamics of a Tularemia Outbreak in a Closely Monitored Free-Roaming Population of Wild House Mice.

PubMed

Dobay, Akos; Pilo, Paola; Lindholm, Anna K; Origgi, Francesco; Bagheri, Homayoun C; König, Barbara

2015-01-01

Infectious disease outbreaks can be devastating because of their sudden occurrence, as well as the complexity of monitoring and controlling them. Outbreaks in wildlife are even more challenging to observe and describe, especially when small animals or secretive species are involved. Modeling such infectious disease events is relevant to investigating their dynamics and is critical for decision makers to accomplish outbreak management. Tularemia, caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis, is a potentially lethal zoonosis. Of the few animal outbreaks that have been reported in the literature, only those affecting zoo animals have been closely monitored. Here, we report the first estimation of the basic reproduction number R0 of an outbreak in wildlife caused by F. tularensis using quantitative modeling based on a susceptible-infected-recovered framework. We applied that model to data collected during an extensive investigation of an outbreak of tularemia caused by F. tularensis subsp. holarctica (also designated as type B) in a closely monitored, free-roaming house mouse (Mus musculus domesticus) population in Switzerland. Based on our model and assumptions, the best estimated basic reproduction number R0 of the current outbreak is 1.33. Our results suggest that tularemia can cause severe outbreaks in small rodents. We also concluded that the outbreak self-exhausted in approximately three months without administrating antibiotics.

Dynamics of a Tularemia Outbreak in a Closely Monitored Free-Roaming Population of Wild House Mice

PubMed Central

Dobay, Akos; Pilo, Paola; Lindholm, Anna K.; Origgi, Francesco; Bagheri, Homayoun C.; König, Barbara

2015-01-01

Infectious disease outbreaks can be devastating because of their sudden occurrence, as well as the complexity of monitoring and controlling them. Outbreaks in wildlife are even more challenging to observe and describe, especially when small animals or secretive species are involved. Modeling such infectious disease events is relevant to investigating their dynamics and is critical for decision makers to accomplish outbreak management. Tularemia, caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis, is a potentially lethal zoonosis. Of the few animal outbreaks that have been reported in the literature, only those affecting zoo animals have been closely monitored. Here, we report the first estimation of the basic reproduction number R 0 of an outbreak in wildlife caused by F. tularensis using quantitative modeling based on a susceptible-infected-recovered framework. We applied that model to data collected during an extensive investigation of an outbreak of tularemia caused by F. tularensis subsp. holarctica (also designated as type B) in a closely monitored, free-roaming house mouse (Mus musculus domesticus) population in Switzerland. Based on our model and assumptions, the best estimated basic reproduction number R 0 of the current outbreak is 1.33. Our results suggest that tularemia can cause severe outbreaks in small rodents. We also concluded that the outbreak self-exhausted in approximately three months without administrating antibiotics. PMID:26536232

Genetic and phylogenetic consequences of island biogeography.

PubMed

Johnson, K P; Adler, F R; Cherry, J L

2000-04-01

Island biogeography theory predicts that the number of species on an island should increase with island size and decrease with island distance to the mainland. These predictions are generally well supported in comparative and experimental studies. These ecological, equilibrium predictions arise as a result of colonization and extinction processes. Because colonization and extinction are also important processes in evolution, we develop methods to test evolutionary predictions of island biogeography. We derive a population genetic model of island biogeography that incorporates island colonization, migration of individuals from the mainland, and extinction of island populations. The model provides a means of estimating the rates of migration and extinction from population genetic data. This model predicts that within an island population the distribution of genetic divergences with respect to the mainland source population should be bimodal, with much of the divergence dating to the colonization event. Across islands, this model predicts that populations on large islands should be on average more genetically divergent from mainland source populations than those on small islands. Likewise, populations on distant islands should be more divergent than those on close islands. Published observations of a larger proportion of endemic species on large and distant islands support these predictions.

Reorienting health systems to meet the demand for consumer health solutions.

PubMed

Buckeridge, David L

2014-01-01

There is a clear and pronounced gap between the demand for and access to consumer health solutions. Existing health information systems and broader health system factors such as funding models are reasons for this gap. There are strong arguments from the perspectives of the consumer and population health for closing this gap, but the case from the perspective of the current health system is mixed. Closing the gap will require a concerted effort to reorient health information systems and funding models to support online access by consumers to health information and health services.

[Origin and evolution of canine parvovirus--a review].

PubMed

Zhao, Jianjun; Yan, Xijun; Wu, Wei

2011-07-01

Canine parvovirus (CPV-2), first recognized in 1978 as a new pathogen of dogs, was probably derived from a very closely related virus in cats, feline panleukopaenia virus (FPLV) or a closely related carnivore parvovirus (FPLV-like virus). CPV-2 is responsible for either myocarditis or fatal gastroenteritis in pups with high morbidity and mortality. Shortly after its emergence, CPV-2 has become endemic in the global dog population. The original CPV-2 continued to evolve, and was subsequently replaced by three different but closely related antigenic variants, designated CPV-2a, CPV-2b and CPV-2c, which now coexist in dog populations worldwide. The genetic and antigenic variation in CPV-2 also correlated with changes in the host range and tissue tropisms of the virus. Here, we reviewed variation and evolution of CPV-2 in past 30 years and discussed CPV-2 as an important model to study virus evolution.

Modeling and closed-loop control of hypnosis by means of bispectral index (BIS) with isoflurane.

PubMed

Gentilini, A; Rossoni-Gerosa, M; Frei, C W; Wymann, R; Morari, M; Zbinden, A M; Schnider, T W

2001-08-01

A model-based closed-loop control system is presented to regulate hypnosis with the volatile anesthetic isoflurane. Hypnosis is assessed by means of the bispectral index (BIS), a processed parameter derived from the electroencephalogram. Isoflurane is administered through a closed-circuit respiratory system. The model for control was identified on a population of 20 healthy volunteers. It consists of three parts: a model for the respiratory system, a pharmacokinetic model and a pharmacodynamic model to predict BIS at the effect compartment. A cascaded internal model controller is employed. The master controller compares the actual BIS and the reference value set by the anesthesiologist and provides expired isoflurane concentration references to the slave controller. The slave controller maneuvers the fresh gas anesthetic concentration entering the respiratory system. The controller is designed to adapt to different respiratory conditions. Anti-windup measures protect against performance degradation in the event of saturation of the input signal. Fault detection schemes in the controller cope with BIS and expired concentration measurement artifacts. The results of clinical studies on humans are presented.

An overview of methods for developing bioenergetic and life history models for rare and endangered species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, J.H.; DeAngelis, D.L.; Paukert, C.P.

2008-01-01

Many fish species are at risk to some degree, and conservation efforts are planned or underway to preserve sensitive populations. For many imperiled species, models could serve as useful tools for researchers and managers as they seek to understand individual growth, quantify predator-prey dynamics, and identify critical sources of mortality. Development and application of models for rare species however, has been constrained by small population sizes, difficulty in obtaining sampling permits, limited opportunities for funding, and regulations on how endangered species can be used in laboratory studies. Bioenergetic and life history models should help with endangered species-recovery planning since these types of models have been used successfully in the last 25 years to address management problems for many commercially and recreationally important fish species. In this paper we discuss five approaches to developing models and parameters for rare species. Borrowing model functions and parameters from related species is simple, but uncorroborated results can be misleading. Directly estimating parameters with laboratory studies may be possible for rare species that have locally abundant populations. Monte Carlo filtering can be used to estimate several parameters by means of performing simple laboratory growth experiments to first determine test criteria. Pattern-oriented modeling (POM) is a new and developing field of research that uses field-observed patterns to build, test, and parameterize models. Models developed using the POM approach are closely linked to field data, produce testable hypotheses, and require a close working relationship between modelers and empiricists. Artificial evolution in individual-based models can be used to gain insight into adaptive behaviors for poorly understood species and thus can fill in knowledge gaps. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

Cholera epidemic in Haiti, 2010: using a transmission model to explain spatial spread of disease and identify optimal control interventions.

PubMed

Tuite, Ashleigh R; Tien, Joseph; Eisenberg, Marisa; Earn, David J D; Ma, Junling; Fisman, David N

2011-05-03

Haiti is in the midst of a cholera epidemic. Surveillance data for formulating models of the epidemic are limited, but such models can aid understanding of epidemic processes and help define control strategies. To predict, by using a mathematical model, the sequence and timing of regional cholera epidemics in Haiti and explore the potential effects of disease-control strategies. Compartmental mathematical model allowing person-to-person and waterborne transmission of cholera. Within- and between-region epidemic spread was modeled, with the latter dependent on population sizes and distance between regional centroids (a "gravity" model). Haiti, 2010 to 2011. Haitian hospitalization data, 2009 census data, literature-derived parameter values, and model calibration. Dates of epidemic onset and hospitalizations. The plausible range for cholera's basic reproductive number (R(0), defined as the number of secondary cases per primary case in a susceptible population without intervention) was 2.06 to 2.78. The order and timing of regional cholera outbreaks predicted by the gravity model were closely correlated with empirical observations. Analysis of changes in disease dynamics over time suggests that public health interventions have substantially affected this epidemic. A limited vaccine supply provided late in the epidemic was projected to have a modest effect. Assumptions were simplified, which was necessary for modeling. Projections are based on the initial dynamics of the epidemic, which may change. Despite limited surveillance data from the cholera epidemic in Haiti, a model simulating between-region disease transmission according to population and distance closely reproduces reported disease patterns. This model is a tool that planners, policymakers, and medical personnel seeking to manage the epidemic could use immediately.

Weak ergodicity of population evolution processes.

PubMed

Inaba, H

1989-10-01

The weak ergodic theorems of mathematical demography state that the age distribution of a closed population is asymptotically independent of the initial distribution. In this paper, we provide a new proof of the weak ergodic theorem of the multistate population model with continuous time. The main tool to attain this purpose is a theory of multiplicative processes, which was mainly developed by Garrett Birkhoff, who showed that ergodic properties generally hold for an appropriate class of multiplicative processes. First, we construct a general theory of multiplicative processes on a Banach lattice. Next, we formulate a dynamical model of a multistate population and show that its evolution operator forms a multiplicative process on the state space of the population. Subsequently, we investigate a sufficient condition that guarantees the weak ergodicity of the multiplicative process. Finally, we prove the weak and strong ergodic theorems for the multistate population and resolve the consistency problem.

Mountain plover population responses to black-tailed prairie dogs in Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinsmore, S.J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, F.L.

2005-01-01

We studied a local population of mountain plovers (Charadrius montanus) in southern Phillips County, Montana, USA, from 1995 to 2000 to estimate annual rates of recruitment rate (f) and population change (??). We used Pradel models, and we modeled ?? as a constant across years, as a linear time trend, as year-specific, and with an additive effect of area occupied by prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). We modeled recruitment rate (f) as a function of area occupied by prairie dogs with the remaining model structure identical to the best model used to estimate ??. Our results indicated a strong negative effect of area occupied by prairie dogs on both ?? (slope coefficient on a log scale was -0.11; 95% CI was -0.17, -0.05) and f (slope coefficient on a logit scale was -0.23; 95% CI was -0.36, -0.10). We also found good evidence for a negative time trend on ??; this model had substantial weight (wi = 0.31), and the slope coefficient on the linear trend on a log scale was -0.10 (95% CI was -0.15, -0.05). Yearly estimates of ?? were >1 in all years except 1999, indicating that the population initially increased and then stabilized in the last year of the study. We found weak evidence for year-specific estimates of ??; the best model with year-specific estimates had a low weight (wi = 0.02), although the pattern of yearly estimates of ?? closely matched those estimated with a linear time trend. In southern Phillips County, the population trend of mountain plovers closely matched the trend in the area occupied by black-tailed prairie dogs. Black-tailed prairie dogs declined sharply in the mid-1990s in response to an outbreak of sylvatic plague, but their numbers have steadily increased since 1996 in concert with increases in plovers. The results of this study (1) increase our understanding of the dynamics of this population and how they relate to the area occupied by prairie dogs, and (2) will be useful for planning plover conservation in a prairie dog ecosystem.

Applications of Perron-Frobenius theory to population dynamics.

PubMed

Li, Chi-Kwong; Schneider, Hans

2002-05-01

By the use of Perron-Frobenius theory, simple proofs are given of the Fundamental Theorem of Demography and of a theorem of Cushing and Yicang on the net reproductive rate occurring in matrix models of population dynamics. The latter result, which is closely related to the Stein-Rosenberg theorem in numerical linear algebra, is further refined with some additional nonnegative matrix theory. When the fertility matrix is scaled by the net reproductive rate, the growth rate of the model is $1$. More generally, we show how to achieve a given growth rate for the model by scaling the fertility matrix. Demographic interpretations of the results are given.

Is a multivariate consensus representation of genetic relationships among populations always meaningful?

PubMed Central

Moazami-Goudarzi, K; Laloë, D

2002-01-01

To determine the relationships among closely related populations or species, two methods are commonly used in the literature: phylogenetic reconstruction or multivariate analysis. The aim of this article is to assess the reliability of multivariate analysis. We describe a method that is based on principal component analysis and Mantel correlations, using a two-step process: The first step consists of a single-marker analysis and the second step tests if each marker reveals the same typology concerning population differentiation. We conclude that if single markers are not congruent, the compromise structure is not meaningful. Our model is not based on any particular mutation process and it can be applied to most of the commonly used genetic markers. This method is also useful to determine the contribution of each marker to the typology of populations. We test whether our method is efficient with two real data sets based on microsatellite markers. Our analysis suggests that for closely related populations, it is not always possible to accept the hypothesis that an increase in the number of markers will increase the reliability of the typology analysis. PMID:12242255

Evaluating a fish monitoring protocol using state-space hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Robin E.; Schmetterling, David A.; Guy, Chris S.; Shepard, Bradley B.; McFarland, Robert; Skaar, Donald

2012-01-01

Using data collected from three river reaches in Montana, we evaluated our ability to detect population trends and predict fish future fish abundance. Data were collected as part of a long-term monitoring program conducted by Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks to primarily estimate rainbow (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) abundance in numerous rivers across Montana. We used a hierarchical Bayesian mark-recapture model to estimate fish abundance over time in each of the three river reaches. We then fit a state-space Gompertz model to estimate current trends and future fish populations. Density dependent effects were detected in 1 of the 6 fish populations. Predictions of future fish populations displayed wide credible intervals. Our simulations indicated that given the observed variation in the abundance estimates, the probability of detecting a 30% decline in fish populations over a five-year period was less than 50%. We recommend a monitoring program that is closely tied to management objectives and reflects the precision necessary to make informed management decisions.

Prediction of winter vitamin D status and requirements in the UK population based on 25(OH) vitamin D half-life and dietary intake data.

PubMed

Schoenmakers, Inez; Gousias, Petros; Jones, Kerry S; Prentice, Ann

2016-11-01

On a population basis, there is a gradual decline in vitamin D status (plasma 25(OH)D) throughout winter. We developed a mathematical model to predict the population winter plasma 25(OH)D concentration longitudinally, using age-specific values for 25(OH)D expenditure (25(OH)D 3 t 1/2 ), cross-sectional plasma 25(OH)D concentration and vitamin D intake (VDI) data from older (70+ years; n=492) and younger adults (18-69 years; n=448) participating in the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey. From this model, the population VDI required to maintain the mean plasma 25(OH)D at a set concentration can be derived. As expected, both predicted and measured population 25(OH)D (mean (95%CI)) progressively declined from September to March (from 51 (40-61) to 38 (36-41)nmol/L (predicted) vs 38 (27-48)nmol/L (measured) in older people and from 59 (54-65) to 34 (31-37)nmol/L (predicted) vs 37 (31-44)nmol/L (measured) in younger people). The predicted and measured mean values closely matched. The predicted VDIs required to maintain mean winter plasma 25(OH)D at 50nmol/L at the population level were 10 (0-20) to 11 (9-14) and 11 (6-16) to 13(11-16)μg/d for older and younger adults, respectively dependent on the month. In conclusion, a prediction model accounting for 25(OH)D 3 t 1/2 , VDI and scaling factor for the 25(OH)D response to VDI, closely predicts measured population winter values. Refinements of this model may include specific scaling factors accounting for the 25(OH)D response at different VDIs and as influenced by body composition and specific values for 25(OH)D 3 t 1/2 dependent on host factors such as kidney function. This model may help to reduce the need for longitudinal measurements. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Applying GIS and fine-resolution digital terrain models to assess three-dimensional population distribution under traffic impacts.

PubMed

Wu, Chih-Da; Lung, Shih-Chun Candice

2012-01-01

Pollution exhibits significant variations horizontally and vertically within cities; therefore, the size and three-dimensional (3D) spatial distribution of population are significant determinants of urban health. This paper presents a novel methodology, 3D digital geography (3DIG) methodology, for investigating 3D spatial distributions of population in close proximity to traffic, thus the potential highly exposed population under traffic impacts. 3DIG applies geographic information system and fine-resolution (5 m) digital terrain models to obtain the number of building floors in residential zones of the Taipei metropolis; the vertical distribution of population at different floors was estimated based on demographic data in each census tract. In addition, population within 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 m from the roadways was estimated. Field validation indicated that model results were reliable and accurate; the final population estimation differs only by 0.88% from the demographic database. The results showed that among the total 6.5 million Taipei residents, 0.8 (12.3%), 1.5 (22.9%), 2.3 (34.9), and 2.7 (41.1%) million residents live on the first or second floor within 5, 10, 20, and 50 m, respectively, of municipal roads. There are 22 census tracts with more than half of their residents living on the first or second floor within 5 m of municipal roads. In addition, half of the towns in Taipei city and county with >13.9% and 12.1% of residents live on the first and second floors within 5 m of municipal roads, respectively. These findings highlight the huge number of Taipei residents in close proximity to traffic and have significant implications for exposure assessment and environmental epidemiological studies. This study demonstrates that 3DIG is a versatile methodology for various research and policy planning in which 3D spatial population distribution is the central focus.

Risk of Hospitalization Due to Unintentional Fall Injury in British Columbia, Canada, 1999-2008: Ecological Associations with Socioeconomic Status, Geographic Place, and Aboriginal Ethnicity.

PubMed

Jin, Andrew; Brussoni, Mariana; George, M Anne; Lalonde, Christopher E; McCormick, Rod

2017-08-01

Aboriginal people in British Columbia (BC), especially those residing on Indian reserves, have higher risk of unintentional fall injury than the general population. We test the hypothesis that the disparities are attributable to a combination of socioeconomic status, geographic place, and Aboriginal ethnicity. Within each of 16 Health Service Delivery Areas in BC, we identified three population groups: total population, Aboriginal off-reserve, and Aboriginal on-reserve. We calculated age and gender-standardized relative risks (SRR) of hospitalization due to unintentional fall injury (relative to the total population of BC), during time periods 1999-2003 and 2004-2008, and we obtained custom data from the 2001 and 2006 censuses (long form), describing income, education, employment, housing, proportions of urban and rural dwellers, and prevalence of Aboriginal ethnicity. We studied association of census characteristics with SRR of fall injury, by multivariable linear regression. The best-fitting model was an excellent fit (R 2  = 0.854, p < 0.001) and predicted SRRs very close to observed values for the total, Aboriginal off-reserve, and Aboriginal on-reserve populations of BC. After stepwise regression, the following terms remained: population per room, urban residence, labor force participation, income per capita, and multiplicative interactions of Aboriginal ethnicity with population per room and labor force participation. The disparities are predictable by the hypothesized risk markers. Aboriginal ethnicity is not an independent risk marker: it modifies the effects of socioeconomic factors. Closing the gap in fall injury risk between the general and Aboriginal populations is likely achievable by closing the gaps in socioeconomic conditions.

Hierarchical models for estimating density from DNA mark-recapture studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, B.; Royle, J. Andrew; Wegan, M.T.

2009-01-01

Genetic sampling is increasingly used as a tool by wildlife biologists and managers to estimate abundance and density of species. Typically, DNA is used to identify individuals captured in an array of traps ( e. g., baited hair snares) from which individual encounter histories are derived. Standard methods for estimating the size of a closed population can be applied to such data. However, due to the movement of individuals on and off the trapping array during sampling, the area over which individuals are exposed to trapping is unknown, and so obtaining unbiased estimates of density has proved difficult. We propose a hierarchical spatial capture-recapture model which contains explicit models for the spatial point process governing the distribution of individuals and their exposure to (via movement) and detection by traps. Detection probability is modeled as a function of each individual's distance to the trap. We applied this model to a black bear (Ursus americanus) study conducted in 2006 using a hair-snare trap array in the Adirondack region of New York, USA. We estimated the density of bears to be 0.159 bears/km2, which is lower than the estimated density (0.410 bears/km2) based on standard closed population techniques. A Bayesian analysis of the model is fully implemented in the software program WinBUGS.

Dispersal leads to spatial autocorrelation in species distributions: A simulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bahn, V.; Krohn, W.B.; O'Connor, R.J.

2008-01-01

Compared to population growth regulated by local conditions, dispersal has been underappreciated as a central process shaping the spatial distribution of populations. This paper asks: (a) which conditions increase the importance of dispersers relative to local recruits in determining population sizes? and (b) how does dispersal influence the spatial distribution patterns of abundances among connected populations? We approached these questions with a simulation model of populations on a coupled lattice with cells of continuously varying habitat quality expressed as carrying capacities. Each cell contained a population with the basic dynamics of density-regulated growth, and was connected to other populations by immigration and emigration. The degree to which dispersal influenced the distribution of population sizes depended most strongly on the absolute amount of dispersal, and then on the potential population growth rate. Dispersal decaying in intensity with distance left close neighbours more alike in population size than distant populations, leading to an increase in spatial autocorrelation. The spatial distribution of species with low potential growth rates is more dependent on dispersal than that of species with high growth rates; therefore, distribution modelling for species with low growth rates requires particular attention to autocorrelation, and conservation management of these species requires attention to factors curtailing dispersal, such as fragmentation and dispersal barriers. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Human Plague Risk: Spatial-Temporal Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pinzon, Jorge E.

2010-01-01

This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).

Qualitative and numerical investigations of the impact of a novel pathogen on a seabird colony

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Regan, S. M.; Kelly, T. C.; Korobeinikov, A.; O'Callaghan, M. J. A.; Pokrovskii, A. V.

2008-11-01

Understanding the dynamics of novel pathogens in dense populations is crucial to public and veterinary health as well as wildlife ecology. Seabirds live in crowded colonies numbering several thousands of individuals. The long-term dynamics of avian influenza H5N1 virus in a seabird colony with no existing herd immunity are investigated using sophisticated mathematical techniques. The key characteristics of seabird population biology and the H5N1 virus are incorporated into a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model. Using the theory of integral manifolds, the SEIR model is reduced to a simpler system of two differential equations depending on the infected and recovered populations only, termed the IR model. The results of numerical experiments indicate that the IR model and the SEIR model are in close agreement. Using Lyapunov's direct method, the equilibria of the SEIR and the IR models are proven to be globally asymptotically stable in the positive quadrant.

The use of auxiliary variables in capture-recapture and removal experiments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollock, K.H.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

1984-01-01

The dependence of animal capture probabilities on auxiliary variables is an important practical problem which has not been considered in the development of estimation procedures for capture-recapture and removal experiments. In this paper the linear logistic binary regression model is used to relate the probability of capture to continuous auxiliary variables. The auxiliary variables could be environmental quantities such as air or water temperature, or characteristics of individual animals, such as body length or weight. Maximum likelihood estimators of the population parameters are considered for a variety of models which all assume a closed population. Testing between models is also considered. The models can also be used when one auxiliary variable is a measure of the effort expended in obtaining the sample.

Probabilistic models for neural populations that naturally capture global coupling and criticality

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Advances in multi-unit recordings pave the way for statistical modeling of activity patterns in large neural populations. Recent studies have shown that the summed activity of all neurons strongly shapes the population response. A separate recent finding has been that neural populations also exhibit criticality, an anomalously large dynamic range for the probabilities of different population activity patterns. Motivated by these two observations, we introduce a class of probabilistic models which takes into account the prior knowledge that the neural population could be globally coupled and close to critical. These models consist of an energy function which parametrizes interactions between small groups of neurons, and an arbitrary positive, strictly increasing, and twice differentiable function which maps the energy of a population pattern to its probability. We show that: 1) augmenting a pairwise Ising model with a nonlinearity yields an accurate description of the activity of retinal ganglion cells which outperforms previous models based on the summed activity of neurons; 2) prior knowledge that the population is critical translates to prior expectations about the shape of the nonlinearity; 3) the nonlinearity admits an interpretation in terms of a continuous latent variable globally coupling the system whose distribution we can infer from data. Our method is independent of the underlying system’s state space; hence, it can be applied to other systems such as natural scenes or amino acid sequences of proteins which are also known to exhibit criticality. PMID:28926564

Realizing the potential of rapid-cycling Brassica as a model system for use in plant biology research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Musgrave, M. E.

2000-01-01

Rapid-cycling Brassica populations were initially developed as a model for probing the genetic basis of plant disease. Paul Williams and co-workers selected accessions of the six main species for short time to flower and rapid seed maturation. Over multiple generations of breeding and selection, rapid-cycling populations of each of the six species were developed. Because of their close relationship with economically important Brassica species, rapid-cycling Brassica populations, especially those of B. rapa (RCBr) and B. oleracea, have seen wide application in plant and crop physiology investigations. Adding to the popularity of these small, short-lived plants for research applications is their extensive use in K-12 education and outreach.

Per Aspera ad Astra: Through Complex Population Modeling to Predictive Theory.

PubMed

Topping, Christopher J; Alrøe, Hugo Fjelsted; Farrell, Katharine N; Grimm, Volker

2015-11-01

Population models in ecology are often not good at predictions, even if they are complex and seem to be realistic enough. The reason for this might be that Occam's razor, which is key for minimal models exploring ideas and concepts, has been too uncritically adopted for more realistic models of systems. This can tie models too closely to certain situations, thereby preventing them from predicting the response to new conditions. We therefore advocate a new kind of parsimony to improve the application of Occam's razor. This new parsimony balances two contrasting strategies for avoiding errors in modeling: avoiding inclusion of nonessential factors (false inclusions) and avoiding exclusion of sometimes-important factors (false exclusions). It involves a synthesis of traditional modeling and analysis, used to describe the essentials of mechanistic relationships, with elements that are included in a model because they have been reported to be or can arguably be assumed to be important under certain conditions. The resulting models should be able to reflect how the internal organization of populations change and thereby generate representations of the novel behavior necessary for complex predictions, including regime shifts.

Population genetics of commercial and feral honey bees in Western Australia.

PubMed

Chapman, Nadine C; Lim, Julianne; Oldroyd, Benjamin P

2008-04-01

Due to the introduction of exotic honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) diseases in the eastern states, the borders of the state of Western Australia were closed to the import of bees for breeding and other purposes > 25 yr ago. To provide genetically improved stock for the industry, a closed population breeding program was established that now provides stock for the majority of Western Australian beekeepers. Given concerns that inbreeding may have resulted from the closed population breeding structure, we assessed the genetic diversity within and between the breeding lines by using microsatellite and mitochondrial markers. We found that the breeding population still maintains considerable genetic diversity, despite 25 yr of selective breeding. We also investigated the genetic distance of the closed population breeding program to that of beekeepers outside of the program, and the feral Western Australian honey bee population. The feral population is genetically distinct from the closed population, but not from the genetic stock maintained by beekeepers outside of the program. The honey bees of Western Australia show three mitotypes, originating from two subspecies: Apis mellifera ligustica (mitotypes C1 and M7b) and Apis mellifera iberica (mitotype M6). Only mitotypes C1 and M6 are present in the commercial populations. The feral population contains all three mitotypes.

Bayesian Multiscale Modeling of Closed Curves in Point Clouds

PubMed Central

Gu, Kelvin; Pati, Debdeep; Dunson, David B.

2014-01-01

Modeling object boundaries based on image or point cloud data is frequently necessary in medical and scientific applications ranging from detecting tumor contours for targeted radiation therapy, to the classification of organisms based on their structural information. In low-contrast images or sparse and noisy point clouds, there is often insufficient data to recover local segments of the boundary in isolation. Thus, it becomes critical to model the entire boundary in the form of a closed curve. To achieve this, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model that expresses highly diverse 2D objects in the form of closed curves. The model is based on a novel multiscale deformation process. By relating multiple objects through a hierarchical formulation, we can successfully recover missing boundaries by borrowing structural information from similar objects at the appropriate scale. Furthermore, the model’s latent parameters help interpret the population, indicating dimensions of significant structural variability and also specifying a ‘central curve’ that summarizes the collection. Theoretical properties of our prior are studied in specific cases and efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are developed, evaluated through simulation examples and applied to panorex teeth images for modeling teeth contours and also to a brain tumor contour detection problem. PMID:25544786

A Capstone Project: Closing the Achievement Gap of English Learners in Literacy at Sunshine Elementary School Using the Gap Analysis Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herrera, Juan Carlos

2013-01-01

This project was an alternative capstone dissertation conducted by a team of three doctoral students. The project focused on systematic and long-term underachievement of the English Language (EL) population of a single school, Sunshine Elementary, using the gap analysis model (Clark and Estes, 2008). More specifically, the purpose of the analysis…

A Capstone Project: Closing the Achievement Gap of English Language Learners at Sunshine Elementary School Using the Gap Analysis Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mingo-Long, Enyetta

2013-01-01

This project was an alternative capstone dissertation conducted by a team of three doctoral students. The project focused on systematic and long-term underachievement of the English Language Learner (ELL) population of a single school, Sunshine Elementary, using the gap analysis model (Clark and Estes, 2008). More specifically, the purpose of the…

Spatially- and Temporally-Resolved Measurements of Roadway Air Pollution Using a Zero-Emission Electric Vehicle

EPA Science Inventory

Vehicle-related air pollution has an intrinsically dynamic nature. Recent field measurements and modeling work have demonstrated that near-road topography may modify levels of air pollutants reaching populations residing and working in close proximity to roadways. However, the ma...

Coral reef fish larvae settle close to home.

PubMed

Jones, Geoffrey P; Planes, Serge; Thorrold, Simon R

2005-07-26

Population connectivity through larval dispersal is an essential parameter in models of marine population dynamics and the optimal size and spacing of marine reserves. However, there are remarkably few direct estimates of larval dispersal for marine organisms, and the actual birth sites of successful recruits have never been located. Here, we solve the mystery of the natal origin of clownfish (Amphiprion polymnus) juveniles by mass-marking via tetracycline immersion all larvae produced in a population. In addition, we established parentage by DNA genotyping all potential adults and all new recruits arriving in the population. Although no individuals settled into the same anemone as their parents, many settled remarkably close to home. Even though this species has a 9-12 day larval duration, one-third of settled juveniles had returned to a 2 hectare natal area, with many settling <100 m from their birth site. This represents the smallest scale of dispersal known for any marine fish species with a pelagic larval phase. The degree of local retention indicates that marine reserves can provide recruitment benefits not only beyond but also within their boundaries.

Metapopulation dynamics and total biomass: Understanding the effects of diffusion in complex networks.

PubMed

Ruiz-Herrera, Alfonso

2018-05-01

In this study, I explored the impact of constructing a new dispersal route between two different patches in a metapopulation. My results indicated that its success/failure on the population abundance greatly depends on the patches directly involved and negligibly on the network topology. Specifically, constructing a dispersal route is highly recommended if it connects a source to a source that is close to becoming a sink or a sink that is close to becoming a source. This biological property is the basis for understanding the influence of the network topology on the population abundance. According to some thresholds discussed in this manuscript, I identified when a given route has a positive or negative effect on the population size. Consequently, as a simple rule of thumb, managers should look for metapopulations that have the maximum (resp. minimum) number paths with a positive (resp. negative) effect on the population abundance. As emphasized, the biological results of this paper do not depend on the model formulation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optical-bistability-enabled control of resonant light transmission for an atom-cavity system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawant, Rahul; Rangwala, S. A.

2016-02-01

The control of light transmission through a standing-wave Fabry-Pérot cavity containing atoms is theoretically and numerically investigated, when the cavity mode beam and an intersecting control beam are both close to specific atomic resonances. A four-level atomic system is considered and its interaction with the cavity mode is studied by solving for the cavity field and atomic state populations. The conditions for optical bistability of the atom-cavity system are obtained. The response of the intracavity intensity to an intersecting beam on atomic resonance is understood in the presence of stationary atoms (closed system) and nonstatic atoms (open system) in the cavity. The nonstatic system of atoms is modelled by adjusting the atomic state populations to represent the exchange of atoms in the cavity mode, which corresponds to a thermal environment where atoms are moving in and out of the cavity mode volume. The control behavior with three- and two-level atomic systems is also studied, and the rich physics arising out of these systems for closed and open atomic systems is discussed. The solutions to the models are used to interpret the steady-state and transient behavior observed by Sharma et al. [Phys. Rev. A 91, 043824 (2015)], 10.1103/PhysRevA.91.043824.

Capture-recapture analysis for estimating manatee reproductive rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Runge, M.C.

2004-01-01

Modeling the life history of the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an important step toward understanding its population dynamics and predicting its response to management actions. We developed a multi-state mark-resighting model for data collected under Pollock's robust design. This model estimates breeding probability conditional on a female's breeding state in the previous year; assumes sighting probability depends on breeding state; and corrects for misclassification of a cow with first-year calf, by estimating conditional sighting probability for the calf. The model is also appropriate for estimating survival and unconditional breeding probabilities when the study area is closed to temporary emigration across years. We applied this model to photo-identification data for the Northwest and Atlantic Coast populations of manatees, for years 1982?2000. With rare exceptions, manatees do not reproduce in two consecutive years. For those without a first-year calf in the previous year, the best-fitting model included constant probabilities of producing a calf for the Northwest (0.43, SE = 0.057) and Atlantic (0.38, SE = 0.045) populations. The approach we present to adjust for misclassification of breeding state could be applicable to a large number of marine mammal populations.

Comparing estimates of genetic variance across different relationship models.

PubMed

Legarra, Andres

2016-02-01

Use of relationships between individuals to estimate genetic variances and heritabilities via mixed models is standard practice in human, plant and livestock genetics. Different models or information for relationships may give different estimates of genetic variances. However, comparing these estimates across different relationship models is not straightforward as the implied base populations differ between relationship models. In this work, I present a method to compare estimates of variance components across different relationship models. I suggest referring genetic variances obtained using different relationship models to the same reference population, usually a set of individuals in the population. Expected genetic variance of this population is the estimated variance component from the mixed model times a statistic, Dk, which is the average self-relationship minus the average (self- and across-) relationship. For most typical models of relationships, Dk is close to 1. However, this is not true for very deep pedigrees, for identity-by-state relationships, or for non-parametric kernels, which tend to overestimate the genetic variance and the heritability. Using mice data, I show that heritabilities from identity-by-state and kernel-based relationships are overestimated. Weighting these estimates by Dk scales them to a base comparable to genomic or pedigree relationships, avoiding wrong comparisons, for instance, "missing heritabilities". Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Detailed ADM-based Modeling of Shock Retreat and X-ray Emission of τ Sco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, C. L.; Petit, V.; Cohen, D. H.; Townsend, R. H.; Wade, G. A.

2018-01-01

Leveraging the improvement of spectropolarimeters over the past few decades, surveys have found that about 10% of OB-type stars host strong (˜ kG) and mostly dipolar surface magnetic fields. One B-type star, τ Sco, has a more complex surface magnetic field than the general population of OB stars. Interestingly, its X-ray luminosity is an order of magnitude higher than predicted from analytical models of magnetized winds. Previous studies of τ Sco's magnetosphere have predicted that the region of closed field loops should be located close to the stellar surface. However, the lack of X-ray variability and the location of the shock-heated plasma measured from forbidden-to-intercombination X-ray line ratios suggest that the hot plasma, and hence the closed magnetic loops, extend considerably farther from the stellar surface, implying a significantly lower mass loss rate than initially assumed. We present an adaptation of the Analytic Dynamical Magnetosphere model, describing the magnetic confinement of the stellar wind, for an arbitrary field loop configuration. This model is used to predict the shock-heated plasma temperatures for individual field loops, which are then compared to high resolution grating spectra from the Chandra X-ray Observatory. This comparison shows that larger closed magnetic loops are needed.

[Approximation to the dynamics of meningococcal meningitis through dynamic systems and time series].

PubMed

Canals, M

1996-02-01

Meningococcal meningitis is subjected to epidemiological surveillance due to its severity and the occasional presentation of epidemic outbreaks. This work analyses previous disease models, generate new ones and analyses monthly cases using ARIMA time series models. The results show that disease dynamics for closed populations is epidemic and the epidemic size is related to the proportion of carriers and the transmissiveness of the agent. In open populations, disease dynamics depends on the admission rate of susceptible and the relative admission of infected individuals. Our model considers a logistic populational growth and carrier admission proportional to populational size, generating an endemic dynamics. Considering a non-instantaneous system response, a greater realism is obtained establishing that the endemic situation may present a dynamics highly sensitive to initial conditions, depending on the transmissiveness and proportion of susceptible individuals in the population. Time series model showed an adequate predictive capacity in terms no longer than 10 months. The lack of long term predictability was attributed to local changes in the proportion of carriers or on transmissiveness that lead to chaotic dynamics over a seasonal pattern. Predictions for 1995 and 1996 were obtained.

Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: analysis of coupled demographic and climate models.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Serreze, Mark; Caswell, Hal

2012-09-01

Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adélie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa ) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa , because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa . We identify an ensemble of five general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adélie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa , which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adélie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. Our analytical approach, in which demographic models are linked to IPCC climate models, is powerful and generally applicable to other species and systems. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Using open robust design models to estimate temporary emigration from capture-recapture data.

PubMed

Kendall, W L; Bjorkland, R

2001-12-01

Capture-recapture studies are crucial in many circumstances for estimating demographic parameters for wildlife and fish populations. Pollock's robust design, involving multiple sampling occasions per period of interest, provides several advantages over classical approaches. This includes the ability to estimate the probability of being present and available for detection, which in some situations is equivalent to breeding probability. We present a model for estimating availability for detection that relaxes two assumptions required in previous approaches. The first is that the sampled population is closed to additions and deletions across samples within a period of interest. The second is that each member of the population has the same probability of being available for detection in a given period. We apply our model to estimate survival and breeding probability in a study of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), where previous approaches are not appropriate.

Using open robust design models to estimate temporary emigration from capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Bjorkland, R.

2001-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are crucial in many circumstances for estimating demographic parameters for wildlife and fish populations. Pollock's robust design, involving multiple sampling occasions per period of interest, provides several advantages over classical approaches. This includes the ability to estimate the probability of being present and available for detection, which in some situations is equivalent to breeding probability. We present a model for estimating availability for detection that relaxes two assumptions required in previous approaches. The first is that the sampled population is closed to additions and deletions across samples within a period of interest. The second is that each member of the population has the same probability of being available for detection in a given period. We apply our model to estimate survival and breeding probability in a study of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), where previous approaches are not appropriate.

Leadership Practice in Elementary School Dual Language Programs: A Collective Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monroy, Joanie K.

2012-01-01

Research in effective programming for English language learners has demonstrated the efficacy of dual language education as a model for closing persistent achievement gaps for this growing population of students. With goals of high academic achievement, linguistic proficiency in two languages, and cross-cultural proficiency, dual language…

New Technologies in Academic Publishing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Waller, Robert; Lefrere, Paul

1981-01-01

The Open University has become one of the biggest publishing houses in Great Britain. Its course units are produced in a system closely modeled on that of commercial publishers. New technologies in publishing have important educational implications. They can produce up-to-date materials for high level, small population courses. (Author/MLW)

Dynamic multipopulation and density dependent evolutionary games related to replicator dynamics. A metasimplex concept.

PubMed

Argasinski, Krzysztof

2006-07-01

This paper contains the basic extensions of classical evolutionary games (multipopulation and density dependent models). It is shown that classical bimatrix approach is inconsistent with other approaches because it does not depend on proportion between populations. The main conclusion is that interspecific proportion parameter is important and must be considered in multipopulation models. The paper provides a synthesis of both extensions (a metasimplex concept) which solves the problem intrinsic in the bimatrix model. It allows us to model interactions among any number of subpopulations including density dependence effects. We prove that all modern approaches to evolutionary games are closely related. All evolutionary models (except classical bimatrix approaches) can be reduced to a single population general model by a simple change of variables. Differences between classic bimatrix evolutionary games and a new model which is dependent on interspecific proportion are shown by examples.

On the logistic equation subject to uncertainties in the environmental carrying capacity and initial population density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorini, F. A.; Cecconello, M. S.; Dorini, L. B.

2016-04-01

It is recognized that handling uncertainty is essential to obtain more reliable results in modeling and computer simulation. This paper aims to discuss the logistic equation subject to uncertainties in two parameters: the environmental carrying capacity, K, and the initial population density, N0. We first provide the closed-form results for the first probability density function of time-population density, N(t), and its inflection point, t*. We then use the Maximum Entropy Principle to determine both K and N0 density functions, treating such parameters as independent random variables and considering fluctuations of their values for a situation that commonly occurs in practice. Finally, closed-form results for the density functions and statistical moments of N(t), for a fixed t > 0, and of t* are provided, considering the uniform distribution case. We carried out numerical experiments to validate the theoretical results and compared them against that obtained using Monte Carlo simulation.

Not all built the same? A comparative study of electoral systems and population health.

PubMed

Patterson, Andrew C

2017-09-01

Much literature depicts a worldwide democratic advantage in population health. However, less research compares health outcomes in the different kinds of democracy or autocracy. In an examination of 179 countries as they existed between 1975 and 2012, advantages in life expectancy and infant health appear most reliably for democracies that include the principle of proportional representation in their electoral rules. Compared to closed autocracies, they had up to 12 or more years of life expectancy on average, 75% less infant mortality, and double the savings in overall mortality for most other age groups. Majoritarian democracies, in contrast, did not experience longitudinal improvements in health relative to closed autocracies. Instead their population health appeared to be on par with or even superseded by competitive autocracies in most models. Findings suggest that the principle of proportional representation may be good for health at the national level. Implications and limitations are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A starburst region at the tip of the Galactic bar around l=347-350

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marco, Amparo; Negueruela, Ignacio; González-Fernández, Carlos; Maíz-Apellániz, Jesús; Dorda, Ricardo; Clark, J. Simon

2015-08-01

In the past few years, several clusters of red supergiants have been discovered in a small region of the Milky Way, close to the base of the Scutum-Crux Arm and the tip of the Long Bar, between l=24º and l=29º. According to the number of observed red supergiants and using population synthesis models, they must contain very large stellar populations to harbour so many RSGs, some of them being candidates to the most massive young clusters in the Galaxy. These massive open clusters are part of a huge structure most likely containing hundreds of red supergiants. These results suggest that the Scutum complex represents a giant star formation region triggered by dynamical excitation by the Galactic bar, whose tip is believed to intersect the Scutum-Crux Arm close to this region. If this scenario is correct, a similar structure would be expected close to the opposite end of the Galactic long bar. We must find in an area between l=347º-350º (these sight lines include the expected location of the far tip of the Galactic bar in the model of González-Fernández et al. (2012)) likely candidates to very massive open clusters.We are carrying out a comprehensive optical and infrared photometric and spectroscopic study of this region containing the open clusters VdBH 222, Teutsch 85 and their surroundings. We have analyzed the population of VdBH 222 and we have found a large population of luminous supergiants and OB stars. The cluster lies behind ~7.5 mag of extinction and has a probable distance of ~ 10 kpc and an age of ~12 Ma. VdBH 222 is a young massive cluster with a likely mass > 20000 Msolar. Now, we are analyzing the population of the open cluster Teutsch 85 and surroundings, finding a numerous population of supergiants.In this work, we will discuss the possible role of the Galactic bar in triggering the formation of starburst clusters.

Investigating the effect of invasion characteristics on onion thrips (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) populations in onions with a temperature-driven process model.

PubMed

Mo, Jianhua; Stevens, Mark; Liu, De Li; Herron, Grant

2009-12-01

A temperature-driven process model was developed to describe the seasonal patterns of populations of onion thrips, Thrips tabaci Lindeman, in onions. The model used daily cohorts (individuals of the same developmental stage and daily age) as the population unit. Stage transitions were modeled as a logistic function of accumulated degree-days to account for variability in development rate among individuals. Daily survival was modeled as a logistic function of daily mean temperature. Parameters for development, survival, and fecundity were estimated from published data. A single invasion event was used to initiate the population process, starting at 1-100 d after onion emergence (DAE) for 10-100 d at the daily rate of 0.001-0.9 adults/plant/d. The model was validated against five observed seasonal patterns of onion thrips populations from two unsprayed sites in the Riverina, New South Wales, Australia, during 2003-2006. Performance of the model was measured by a fit index based on the proportion of variations in observed data explained by the model (R (2)) and the differences in total thrips-days between observed and predicted populations. Satisfactory matching between simulated and observed seasonal patterns was obtained within the ranges of invasion parameters tested. Model best-fit was obtained at invasion starting dates of 6-98 DAE with a daily invasion rate of 0.002-0.2 adults/plant/d and an invasion duration of 30-100 d. Under the best-fit invasion scenarios, the model closely reproduced the observed seasonal patterns, explaining 73-95% of variability in adult and larval densities during population increase periods. The results showed that small invasions of adult thrips followed by a gradual population build-up of thrips within onion crops were sufficient to bring about the observed seasonal patterns of onion thrips populations in onion. Implications of the model on timing of chemical controls are discussed.

Han's model parameters for microalgae grown under intermittent illumination: Determined using particle swarm optimization.

PubMed

Pozzobon, Victor; Perre, Patrick

2018-01-21

This work provides a model and the associated set of parameters allowing for microalgae population growth computation under intermittent lightning. Han's model is coupled with a simple microalgae growth model to yield a relationship between illumination and population growth. The model parameters were obtained by fitting a dataset available in literature using Particle Swarm Optimization method. In their work, authors grew microalgae in excess of nutrients under flashing conditions. Light/dark cycles used for these experimentations are quite close to those found in photobioreactor, i.e. ranging from several seconds to one minute. In this work, in addition to producing the set of parameters, Particle Swarm Optimization robustness was assessed. To do so, two different swarm initialization techniques were used, i.e. uniform and random distribution throughout the search-space. Both yielded the same results. In addition, swarm distribution analysis reveals that the swarm converges to a unique minimum. Thus, the produced set of parameters can be trustfully used to link light intensity to population growth rate. Furthermore, the set is capable to describe photodamages effects on population growth. Hence, accounting for light overexposure effect on algal growth. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Site occupancy models with heterogeneous detection probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew

2006-01-01

Models for estimating the probability of occurrence of a species in the presence of imperfect detection are important in many ecological disciplines. In these ?site occupancy? models, the possibility of heterogeneity in detection probabilities among sites must be considered because variation in abundance (and other factors) among sampled sites induces variation in detection probability (p). In this article, I develop occurrence probability models that allow for heterogeneous detection probabilities by considering several common classes of mixture distributions for p. For any mixing distribution, the likelihood has the general form of a zero-inflated binomial mixture for which inference based upon integrated likelihood is straightforward. A recent paper by Link (2003, Biometrics 59, 1123?1130) demonstrates that in closed population models used for estimating population size, different classes of mixture distributions are indistinguishable from data, yet can produce very different inferences about population size. I demonstrate that this problem can also arise in models for estimating site occupancy in the presence of heterogeneous detection probabilities. The implications of this are discussed in the context of an application to avian survey data and the development of animal monitoring programs.

Trend estimation in populations with imperfect detection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, Marc; Dorazio, Robert M.; Soldaat, Leo; Van Strien, Arco; Zuiderwijk, Annie; Royle, J. Andrew

2009-01-01

1. Trends of animal populations are of great interest in ecology but cannot be directly observed owing to imperfect detection. Binomial mixture models use replicated counts to estimate abundance, corrected for detection, in demographically closed populations. Here, we extend these models to open populations and illustrate them using sand lizard Lacerta agilis counts from the national Dutch reptile monitoring scheme. 2. Our model requires replicated counts from multiple sites in each of several periods, within which population closure is assumed. Counts are described by a hierarchical generalized linear model, where the state model deals with spatio-temporal patterns in true abundance and the observation model with imperfect counts, given that true state. We used WinBUGS to fit the model to lizard counts from 208 transects with 1–10 (mean 3) replicate surveys during each spring 1994–2005. 3. Our state model for abundance contained two independent log-linear Poisson regressions on year for coastal and inland sites, and random site effects to account for unexplained heterogeneity. The observation model for detection of an individual lizard contained effects of region, survey date, temperature, observer experience and random survey effects. 4. Lizard populations increased in both regions but more steeply on the coast. Detectability increased over the first few years of the study, was greater on the coast and for the most experienced observers, and highest around 1 June. Interestingly, the population increase inland was not detectable when the observed counts were analysed without account of detectability. The proportional increase between 1994 and 2005 in total lizard abundance across all sites was estimated at 86% (95% CRI 35–151). 5. Synthesis and applications. Open-population binomial mixture models are attractive for studying true population dynamics while explicitly accounting for the observation process, i.e. imperfect detection. We emphasize the important conceptual benefit provided by temporal replicate observations in terms of the interpretability of animal counts.

Genetic wealth, population health: Major histocompatibility complex variation in captive and wild ring-tailed lemurs (Lemur catta).

PubMed

Grogan, Kathleen E; Sauther, Michelle L; Cuozzo, Frank P; Drea, Christine M

2017-10-01

Across species, diversity at the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is critical to individual disease resistance and, hence, to population health; however, MHC diversity can be reduced in small, fragmented, or isolated populations. Given the need for comparative studies of functional genetic diversity, we investigated whether MHC diversity differs between populations which are open, that is experiencing gene flow, versus populations which are closed, that is isolated from other populations. Using the endangered ring-tailed lemur ( Lemur catta ) as a model, we compared two populations under long-term study: a relatively "open," wild population ( n  = 180) derived from Bezà Mahafaly Special Reserve, Madagascar (2003-2013) and a "closed," captive population ( n  = 121) derived from the Duke Lemur Center (DLC, 1980-2013) and from the Indianapolis and Cincinnati Zoos (2012). For all animals, we assessed MHC-DRB diversity and, across populations, we compared the number of unique MHC-DRB alleles and their distributions. Wild individuals possessed more MHC-DRB alleles than did captive individuals, and overall, the wild population had more unique MHC-DRB alleles that were more evenly distributed than did the captive population. Despite management efforts to maintain or increase genetic diversity in the DLC population, MHC diversity remained static from 1980 to 2010. Since 2010, however, captive-breeding efforts resulted in the MHC diversity of offspring increasing to a level commensurate with that found in wild individuals. Therefore, loss of genetic diversity in lemurs, owing to small founder populations or reduced gene flow, can be mitigated by managed breeding efforts. Quantifying MHC diversity within individuals and between populations is the necessary first step to identifying potential improvements to captive management and conservation plans.

A hierarchical model for spatial capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Young, K.V.

2008-01-01

Estimating density is a fundamental objective of many animal population studies. Application of methods for estimating population size from ostensibly closed populations is widespread, but ineffective for estimating absolute density because most populations are subject to short-term movements or so-called temporary emigration. This phenomenon invalidates the resulting estimates because the effective sample area is unknown. A number of methods involving the adjustment of estimates based on heuristic considerations are in widespread use. In this paper, a hierarchical model of spatially indexed capture recapture data is proposed for sampling based on area searches of spatial sample units subject to uniform sampling intensity. The hierarchical model contains explicit models for the distribution of individuals and their movements, in addition to an observation model that is conditional on the location of individuals during sampling. Bayesian analysis of the hierarchical model is achieved by the use of data augmentation, which allows for a straightforward implementation in the freely available software WinBUGS. We present results of a simulation study that was carried out to evaluate the operating characteristics of the Bayesian estimator under variable densities and movement patterns of individuals. An application of the model is presented for survey data on the flat-tailed horned lizard (Phrynosoma mcallii) in Arizona, USA.

The 'robust' capture-recapture design allows components of recruitment to be estimated

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollock, K.H.; Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.; Lebreton, J.-D.; North, P.M.

1993-01-01

The 'robust' capture-recapture design (Pollock 1982) allows analyses which combine features of closed population model analyses (Otis et aI., 1978, White et aI., 1982) and open population model analyses (Pollock et aI., 1990). Estimators obtained under these analyses are more robust to unequal catch ability than traditional Jolly-Seber estimators (Pollock, 1982; Pollock et al., 1990; Kendall, 1992). The robust design also allows estimation of parameters for population size, survival rate and recruitment numbers for all periods of the study unlike under Jolly-Seber type models. The major advantage of this design that we emphasize in this short review paper is that it allows separate estimation of immigration and in situ recruitment numbers for a two or more age class model (Nichols and Pollock, 1990). This is contrasted with the age-dependent Jolly-Seber model (Pollock, 1981; Stokes, 1984; Pollock et L, 1990) which provides separate estimates for immigration and in situ recruitment for all but the first two age classes where there is at least a three age class model. The ability to achieve this separation of recruitment components can be very important to population modelers and wildlife managers as many species can only be separated into two easily identified age classes in the field.

Risk of population extinction from fixation of deleterious and reverse mutations.

PubMed

Lande, R

1998-01-01

A model is developed for alternate fixations of mildly deleterious and wild-type alleles arising by forward and reverse mutation in a finite population. For almost all parameter values, this gives an equilibrium load that agrees closely with the general expression derived from diffusion theory. Nearly neutral mutations with selection coefficient a few times larger than 1/(2N(e)) do the most damage by increasing the equilibrium load. The model of alternate fixations facilitates dynamical analysis of the expected load and the mean time to extinction in a population that has been suddenly reduced from a very large size to a small size. Reverse mutation can substantially improve population viability, increasing the mean time to extinction by an order of magnitude or more, but because many mutations are irreversible the effects may not be large. Populations with initially high mean fitness and small effective size, N(e) below a few hundred individuals, may be at serious risk of extinction from fixation of deleterious mutations within 10(3) to 10(4) generations.

Inferring the demographic history of European Ficedula flycatcher populations

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Inference of population and species histories and population stratification using genetic data is important for discriminating between different speciation scenarios and for correct interpretation of genome scans for signs of adaptive evolution and trait association. Here we use data from 24 intronic loci re-sequenced in population samples of two closely related species, the pied flycatcher and the collared flycatcher. Results We applied Isolation-Migration models, assignment analyses and estimated the genetic differentiation and diversity between species and between populations within species. The data indicate a divergence time between the species of <1 million years, significantly shorter than previous estimates using mtDNA, point to a scenario with unidirectional gene-flow from the pied flycatcher into the collared flycatcher and imply that barriers to hybridisation are still permeable in a recently established hybrid zone. Furthermore, we detect significant population stratification, predominantly between the Spanish population and other pied flycatcher populations. Conclusions Our results provide further evidence for a divergence process where different genomic regions may be at different stages of speciation. We also conclude that forthcoming analyses of genotype-phenotype relations in these ecological model species should be designed to take population stratification into account. PMID:23282063

Integrating Brain and Biomechanical Models—A New Paradigm for Understanding Neuro-muscular Control

PubMed Central

James, Sebastian S.; Papapavlou, Chris; Blenkinsop, Alexander; Cope, Alexander J.; Anderson, Sean R.; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Gurney, Kevin N.

2018-01-01

To date, realistic models of how the central nervous system governs behavior have been restricted in scope to the brain, brainstem or spinal column, as if these existed as disembodied organs. Further, the model is often exercised in relation to an in vivo physiological experiment with input comprising an impulse, a periodic signal or constant activation, and output as a pattern of neural activity in one or more neural populations. Any link to behavior is inferred only indirectly via these activity patterns. We argue that to discover the principles of operation of neural systems, it is necessary to express their behavior in terms of physical movements of a realistic motor system, and to supply inputs that mimic sensory experience. To do this with confidence, we must connect our brain models to neuro-muscular models and provide relevant visual and proprioceptive feedback signals, thereby closing the loop of the simulation. This paper describes an effort to develop just such an integrated brain and biomechanical system using a number of pre-existing models. It describes a model of the saccadic oculomotor system incorporating a neuromuscular model of the eye and its six extraocular muscles. The position of the eye determines how illumination of a retinotopic input population projects information about the location of a saccade target into the system. A pre-existing saccadic burst generator model was incorporated into the system, which generated motoneuron activity patterns suitable for driving the biomechanical eye. The model was demonstrated to make accurate saccades to a target luminance under a set of environmental constraints. Challenges encountered in the development of this model showed the importance of this integrated modeling approach. Thus, we exposed shortcomings in individual model components which were only apparent when these were supplied with the more plausible inputs available in a closed loop design. Consequently we were able to suggest missing functionality which the system would require to reproduce more realistic behavior. The construction of such closed-loop animal models constitutes a new paradigm of computational neurobehavior and promises a more thoroughgoing approach to our understanding of the brain's function as a controller for movement and behavior. PMID:29467606

Evolutionary dynamics of sporophytic self-incompatibility alleles in plants.

PubMed

Schierup, M H; Vekemans, X; Christiansen, F B

1997-10-01

The stationary frequency distribution and allelic dynamics in finite populations are analyzed through stochastic simulations in three models of single-locus, multi-allelic sporophytic self-incompatibility. The models differ in the dominance relationships among alleles. In one model, alleles act codominantly in both pollen and style (SSIcod), in the second, alleles form a dominance hierarchy in pollen and style (SSIdom). In the third model, alleles interact codominantly in the style and form a dominance hierarchy in the pollen (SSIdomcod). The SSIcod model behaves similarly to the model of gametophytic self-incompatibility, but the selection intensity is stronger. With dominance, dominant alleles invade the population more easily than recessive alleles and have a lower frequency at equilibrium. In the SSIdom model, recessive alleles have both a higher allele frequency and higher expected life span. In the SSIdomcod model, however, loss due to drift occurs more easily for pollen-recessive than for pollen-dominant alleles, and therefore, dominant alleles have a higher expected life span than the more recessive alleles. The process of allelic turnover in the SSIdomcod and SSIdom models is closely approximated by a random walk on a dominance ladder. Implications of the results for experimental studies of sporophytic self-incompatibility in natural populations are discussed.

Using Agent-Based Modelling to Predict the Role of Wild Refugia in the Evolution of Resistance of Sea Lice to Chemotherapeutants.

PubMed

McEwan, Gregor F; Groner, Maya L; Fast, Mark D; Gettinby, George; Revie, Crawford W

2015-01-01

A major challenge for Atlantic salmon farming in the northern hemisphere is infestation by the sea louse parasite Lepeophtheirus salmonis. The most frequent method of controlling these sea louse infestations is through the use of chemical treatments. However, most major salmon farming areas have observed resistance to common chemotherapeutants. In terrestrial environments, many strategies employed to manage the evolution of resistance involve the use of refugia, where a portion of the population is left untreated to maintain susceptibility. While refugia have not been deliberately used in Atlantic salmon farming, wild salmon populations that migrate close to salmon farms may act as natural refugia. In this paper we describe an agent-based model that explores the influence of different sizes of wild salmon populations on resistance evolution in sea lice on a salmon farm. Using the model, we demonstrate that wild salmon populations can act as refugia that limit the evolution of resistance in the sea louse populations. Additionally, we demonstrate that an increase in the size of the population of wild salmon results in an increased effect in slowing the evolution of resistance. We explore the effect of a population fitness cost associated with resistance, finding that in some cases it substantially reduces the speed of evolution to chemical treatments.

The interface between population and development models, plans and policies.

PubMed

Cohen, S I

1989-01-01

Scant attention has been given to integrating policy issues in population economics and development economics into more general frameworks. Reviewing the state of the art, this paper examines problems in incorporating population economics variables in development planning. Specifically, conceptual issues in defining population economics variables, modelling relationships between them, and operationalizing frameworks for decision making are explored with hopes of yielding tentative solutions. Several controversial policy issues affecting the development process are also examined in the closing section. 2 of these issues would be the social efficiency of interventions with fertility, and of resource allocations to human development. The effective combination between agriculture and industry in promoting and equitably distributing income growth among earning population groups is a 3rd issue of consideration. Finally, the paper looks at the optimal combination between transfer payments and provisions in kind in guaranteeing minimum consumption needs for poverty groups. Overall, the paper finds significant obstacles to refining the integration of population economics and development policy. Namely, integrating time and place dimensions in classifying people by activity, operationalizing population economics variable models to meet the practical situations of planning and programs, and assessing conflicts and complementarities between alternative policies pose problems. 2 scholarly comments follow the main body of the paper.

Partial synchronization of relaxation oscillators with repulsive coupling in autocatalytic integrate-and-fire model and electrochemical experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kori, Hiroshi; Kiss, István Z.; Jain, Swati; Hudson, John L.

2018-04-01

Experiments and supporting theoretical analysis are presented to describe the synchronization patterns that can be observed with a population of globally coupled electrochemical oscillators close to a homoclinic, saddle-loop bifurcation, where the coupling is repulsive in the electrode potential. While attractive coupling generates phase clusters and desynchronized states, repulsive coupling results in synchronized oscillations. The experiments are interpreted with a phenomenological model that captures the waveform of the oscillations (exponential increase) followed by a refractory period. The globally coupled autocatalytic integrate-and-fire model predicts the development of partially synchronized states that occur through attracting heteroclinic cycles between out-of-phase two-cluster states. Similar behavior can be expected in many other systems where the oscillations occur close to a saddle-loop bifurcation, e.g., with Morris-Lecar neurons.

Investigating Inbreeding Depression for Heat Stress Tolerance in the Model Organism "Drosophila Melanogaster"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pedersen, Kamilla Sofie; Pedersen, Louise Dybdahl; Sorensen, Anders Christian; Nielsen, Anna Busch; Kristensen, Torsten Nygaard

2012-01-01

Mating between closely related individuals often causes reduced fitness, which is termed "inbreeding depression". Inbreeding is, therefore, a threat towards the persistence of animal and plant populations. Here we present methods and results from a practical for high-school and first-year university students and discuss learning outcomes…

Kagan Cooperative Learning Model and Mathematics Achievement of Economically Disadvantaged Middle School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mourning, Erica

2014-01-01

Economically disadvantaged students are being outperformed by their non-disadvantaged peers in middle school mathematics. This problem is evidenced by 2013 data from a national middle school mathematics assessment which revealed an achievement gap of 27 scale score points. Closing this gap is important to schools with high populations of…

A comparative phylogenetic study of genetics and folk music.

PubMed

Pamjav, Horolma; Juhász, Zoltán; Zalán, Andrea; Németh, Endre; Damdin, Bayarlkhagva

2012-04-01

Computer-aided comparison of folk music from different nations is one of the newest research areas. We were intrigued to have identified some important similarities between phylogenetic studies and modern folk music. First of all, both of them use similar concepts and representation tools such as multidimensional scaling for modelling relationship between populations. This gave us the idea to investigate whether these connections are merely accidental or if they mirror population migrations from the past. We raised the question; does the complex structure of musical connections display a clear picture and can this system be interpreted by the genetic analysis? This study is the first to systematically investigate the incidental genetic background of the folk music context between different populations. Paternal (42 populations) and maternal lineages (56 populations) were compared based on Fst genetic distances of the Y chromosomal and mtDNA haplogroup frequencies. To test this hypothesis, the corresponding musical cultures were also compared using an automatic overlap analysis of parallel melody styles for 31 Eurasian nations. We found that close musical relations of populations indicate close genetic distances (<0.05) with a probability of 82%. It was observed that there is a significant correlation between population genetics and folk music; maternal lineages have a more important role in folk music traditions than paternal lineages. Furthermore, the combination of these disciplines establishing a new interdisciplinary research field of "music-genetics" can be an efficient tool to get a more comprehensive picture on the complex behaviour of populations in prehistoric time.

Dynamic social networks based on movement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scharf, Henry; Hooten, Mevin B.; Fosdick, Bailey K.; Johnson, Devin S.; London, Joshua M.; Durban, John W.

2016-01-01

Network modeling techniques provide a means for quantifying social structure in populations of individuals. Data used to define social connectivity are often expensive to collect and based on case-specific, ad hoc criteria. Moreover, in applications involving animal social networks, collection of these data is often opportunistic and can be invasive. Frequently, the social network of interest for a given population is closely related to the way individuals move. Thus, telemetry data, which are minimally invasive and relatively inexpensive to collect, present an alternative source of information. We develop a framework for using telemetry data to infer social relationships among animals. To achieve this, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with an underlying dynamic social network controlling movement of individuals via two mechanisms: an attractive effect and an aligning effect. We demonstrate the model and its ability to accurately identify complex social behavior in simulation, and apply our model to telemetry data arising from killer whales. Using auxiliary information about the study population, we investigate model validity and find the inferred dynamic social network is consistent with killer whale ecology and expert knowledge.

Catching ghosts with a coarse net: use and abuse of spatial sampling data in detecting synchronization

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Synchronization of population dynamics in different habitats is a frequently observed phenomenon. A common mathematical tool to reveal synchronization is the (cross)correlation coefficient between time courses of values of the population size of a given species where the population size is evaluated from spatial sampling data. The corresponding sampling net or grid is often coarse, i.e. it does not resolve all details of the spatial configuration, and the evaluation error—i.e. the difference between the true value of the population size and its estimated value—can be considerable. We show that this estimation error can make the value of the correlation coefficient very inaccurate or even irrelevant. We consider several population models to show that the value of the correlation coefficient calculated on a coarse sampling grid rarely exceeds 0.5, even if the true value is close to 1, so that the synchronization is effectively lost. We also observe ‘ghost synchronization’ when the correlation coefficient calculated on a coarse sampling grid is close to 1 but in reality the dynamics are not correlated. Finally, we suggest a simple test to check the sampling grid coarseness and hence to distinguish between the true and artifactual values of the correlation coefficient. PMID:28202589

Noisy Oscillations in the Actin Cytoskeleton of Chemotactic Amoeba.

PubMed

Negrete, Jose; Pumir, Alain; Hsu, Hsin-Fang; Westendorf, Christian; Tarantola, Marco; Beta, Carsten; Bodenschatz, Eberhard

2016-09-30

Biological systems with their complex biochemical networks are known to be intrinsically noisy. Here we investigate the dynamics of actin polymerization of amoeboid cells, which are close to the onset of oscillations. We show that the large phenotypic variability in the polymerization dynamics can be accurately captured by a generic nonlinear oscillator model in the presence of noise. We determine the relative role of the noise with a single dimensionless, experimentally accessible parameter, thus providing a quantitative description of the variability in a population of cells. Our approach, which rests on a generic description of a system close to a Hopf bifurcation and includes the effect of noise, can characterize the dynamics of a large class of noisy systems close to an oscillatory instability.

Noisy Oscillations in the Actin Cytoskeleton of Chemotactic Amoeba

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Negrete, Jose; Pumir, Alain; Hsu, Hsin-Fang; Westendorf, Christian; Tarantola, Marco; Beta, Carsten; Bodenschatz, Eberhard

2016-09-01

Biological systems with their complex biochemical networks are known to be intrinsically noisy. Here we investigate the dynamics of actin polymerization of amoeboid cells, which are close to the onset of oscillations. We show that the large phenotypic variability in the polymerization dynamics can be accurately captured by a generic nonlinear oscillator model in the presence of noise. We determine the relative role of the noise with a single dimensionless, experimentally accessible parameter, thus providing a quantitative description of the variability in a population of cells. Our approach, which rests on a generic description of a system close to a Hopf bifurcation and includes the effect of noise, can characterize the dynamics of a large class of noisy systems close to an oscillatory instability.

The emergence of human population genetics and narratives about the formation of the Brazilian nation (1950-1960).

PubMed

de Souza, Vanderlei Sebastião; Santos, Ricardo Ventura

2014-09-01

This paper discusses the emergence of human population genetics in Brazil in the decades following World War II, and pays particular attention to narratives about the formation of the Brazilian nation. We analyze the institutionalization of this branch of genetics in the 1950s and 1960s, and look at research on the characteristics of the population of Brazil, which made use of new explanatory models of evolutionary dynamics. These developments were greatly influenced by the activities of the Rockefeller Foundation and by the presence of North American geneticists in Brazil, especially Theodosius Dobzhansky. One of the main points of this paper is to show that explanations of Brazilian human genetic diversity constructed in the mid-twentieth century closely followed interpretations that had been produced since the end of the nineteenth century, in which notions of 'racial mixing' played a central role. Even as population genetics was conditioned by nationalist concerns that had long marked Brazilian history, we argue that its emergence and institutionalization was closely associated with global, post-World War II socio-political contexts, especially with regards to modernization projects and growing scientific internationalization. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A new approach to estimate parameters of speciation models with application to apes.

PubMed

Becquet, Celine; Przeworski, Molly

2007-10-01

How populations diverge and give rise to distinct species remains a fundamental question in evolutionary biology, with important implications for a wide range of fields, from conservation genetics to human evolution. A promising approach is to estimate parameters of simple speciation models using polymorphism data from multiple loci. Existing methods, however, make a number of assumptions that severely limit their applicability, notably, no gene flow after the populations split and no intralocus recombination. To overcome these limitations, we developed a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method to estimate parameters of an isolation-migration model. The approach uses summaries of polymorphism data at multiple loci surveyed in a pair of diverging populations or closely related species and, importantly, allows for intralocus recombination. To illustrate its potential, we applied it to extensive polymorphism data from populations and species of apes, whose demographic histories are largely unknown. The isolation-migration model appears to provide a reasonable fit to the data. It suggests that the two chimpanzee species became reproductively isolated in allopatry approximately 850 Kya, while Western and Central chimpanzee populations split approximately 440 Kya but continued to exchange migrants. Similarly, Eastern and Western gorillas and Sumatran and Bornean orangutans appear to have experienced gene flow since their splits approximately 90 and over 250 Kya, respectively.

Modeling misidentification errors that result from use of genetic tags in capture-recapture studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yoshizaki, J.; Brownie, C.; Pollock, K.H.; Link, W.A.

2011-01-01

Misidentification of animals is potentially important when naturally existing features (natural tags) such as DNA fingerprints (genetic tags) are used to identify individual animals. For example, when misidentification leads to multiple identities being assigned to an animal, traditional estimators tend to overestimate population size. Accounting for misidentification in capture-recapture models requires detailed understanding of the mechanism. Using genetic tags as an example, we outline a framework for modeling the effect of misidentification in closed population studies when individual identification is based on natural tags that are consistent over time (non-evolving natural tags). We first assume a single sample is obtained per animal for each capture event, and then generalize to the case where multiple samples (such as hair or scat samples) are collected per animal per capture occasion. We introduce methods for estimating population size and, using a simulation study, we show that our new estimators perform well for cases with moderately high capture probabilities or high misidentification rates. In contrast, conventional estimators can seriously overestimate population size when errors due to misidentification are ignored. ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

The mutation-drift balance in spatially structured populations.

PubMed

Schneider, David M; Martins, Ayana B; de Aguiar, Marcus A M

2016-08-07

In finite populations the action of neutral mutations is balanced by genetic drift, leading to a stationary distribution of alleles that displays a transition between two different behaviors. For small mutation rates most individuals will carry the same allele at equilibrium, whereas for high mutation rates of the alleles will be randomly distributed with frequencies close to one half for a biallelic gene. For well-mixed haploid populations the mutation threshold is μc=1/2N, where N is the population size. In this paper we study how spatial structure affects this mutation threshold. Specifically, we study the stationary allele distribution for populations placed on regular networks where connected nodes represent potential mating partners. We show that the mutation threshold is sensitive to spatial structure only if the number of potential mates is very small. In this limit, the mutation threshold decreases substantially, increasing the diversity of the population at considerably low mutation rates. Defining kc as the degree of the network for which the mutation threshold drops to half of its value in well-mixed populations we show that kc grows slowly as a function of the population size, following a power law. Our calculations and simulations are based on the Moran model and on a mapping between the Moran model with mutations and the voter model with opinion makers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A study of the dynamics of multi-player games on small networks using territorial interactions.

PubMed

Broom, Mark; Lafaye, Charlotte; Pattni, Karan; Rychtář, Jan

2015-12-01

Recently, the study of structured populations using models of evolutionary processes on graphs has begun to incorporate a more general type of interaction between individuals, allowing multi-player games to be played among the population. In this paper, we develop a birth-death dynamics for use in such models and consider the evolution of populations for special cases of very small graphs where we can easily identify all of the population states and carry out exact analyses. To do so, we study two multi-player games, a Hawk-Dove game and a public goods game. Our focus is on finding the fixation probability of an individual from one type, cooperator or defector in the case of the public goods game, within a population of the other type. We compare this value for both games on several graphs under different parameter values and assumptions, and identify some interesting general features of our model. In particular there is a very close relationship between the fixation probability and the mean temperature, with high temperatures helping fitter individuals and punishing unfit ones and so enhancing selection, whereas low temperatures give a levelling effect which suppresses selection.

Phylogenetic Distribution of Leaf Spectra and Optically Derived Functional Traits in the American Oaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavender-Bares, J.; Meireles, J. E.; Couture, J. J.; Kaproth, M.; Townsend, P. A.

2015-12-01

Detecting functional traits of species, genotypes and phylogenetic lineages is critical in monitoring functional biodiversity remotely. We examined the phylogenetic distribution of leaf spectra across the American Oaks for 35 species under greenhouse conditions as well as genetic variation in leaf spectra across Central American populations of a single species grown in common gardens in Honduras. We found significant phylogenetic signal in the leaf spectra (Blomberg's K > 1.0), indicating similarity in spectra among close relatives. Across species, full range leaf spectra were used in a Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) that allowed species calibration (kappa statistic = 0.55). Validation of the model used to detect species (kappa statistic = 0.4) indicated reasonably good detection of individual species within the same the genus. Among four populations from Belize, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Mexico within a single species (Quercus oleoides), leaf spectra were also able to differentiate populations. Ordination of population-level data using dissimilarities of predicted foliar traits, including leaf mass per area (LMA), lignin content, fiber content, chlorophyll a+b, and C:N ratio in genotypes in either watered or unwatered conditions showed significant differentiation among populations and treatments. These results provide promise for remote detection and differentiation of plant functional traits among plant phylogenetic lineages and genotypes, even among closely related populations and species.

An approach for modeling cross-immunity of two strains, with application to variants of Bartonella in terms of genetic similarity.

PubMed

Ahn, Kwang Woo; Kosoy, Michael; Chan, Kung-Sik

2014-06-01

We developed a two-strain susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that provides a framework for inferring the cross-immunity between two strains of a bacterial species in the host population with discretely sampled co-infection time-series data. Moreover, the model accounts for seasonality in host reproduction. We illustrate an approach using a dataset describing co-infections by several strains of bacteria circulating within a population of cotton rats (Sigmodon hispidus). Bartonella strains were clustered into three genetically close groups, between which the divergence is correspondent to the accepted level of separate bacterial species. The proposed approach revealed no cross-immunity between genetic clusters while limited cross-immunity might exist between subgroups within the clusters. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Improved Adherence Rates and Clinical Outcomes of an Integrated, Closed-Loop, Pharmacist-Led Oral Chemotherapy Management Program.

PubMed

Muluneh, Benyam; Schneider, Molly; Faso, Aimee; Amerine, Lindsey; Daniels, Rowell; Crisp, Brett; Valgus, John; Savage, Scott

2018-06-01

To address the growing use of oral anticancer therapy, an integrated, closed-loop, pharmacist-led oral chemotherapy management program was created within an academic medical center. An integrated, closed-loop, pharmacy-led oral chemotherapy management program was established. From September 2014 until June 2015, demographic information, rates of adherence, patient understanding of treatment, pharmacist interventions, patient and provider satisfaction, and molecular response rates in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) were collected. After full implementation, 107 patients were enrolled in our oral chemotherapy management program from September 2014 until June 2015. All patients were educated before starting oral chemotherapy, and using pre- and postassessment tests, comprehension of oral chemotherapy treatment increased from 43% to 95%. Patient-reported adherence was 86% and 94.7% for the GI/breast and malignant hematology patient populations, respectively, and these were validated with medication possession ratio, revealing adherence rates of 85% and 93.9% for the GI/breast and malignant hematology patient populations, respectively. A total of 350 encounters with a clinical pharmacist and 318 adverse effects were reported, which led to 235 interventions. This program led to a higher major molecular response rate (83%) in our CML population compared with published clinical trials (average major molecular response rates, 40% and 60% with 1- and 2-year follow-up, respectively). An innovative model was developed and resulted in improved patient knowledge regarding oral chemotherapy, improved adherence rates that exceeded nationally established thresholds, and superior major molecular response outcomes for patients with CML compared with published literature. As a result, this model has produced the gold standard in managing patients receiving oral chemotherapy.

Inference about density and temporary emigration in unmarked populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chandler, Richard B.; Royle, J. Andrew; King, David I.

2011-01-01

Few species are distributed uniformly in space, and populations of mobile organisms are rarely closed with respect to movement, yet many models of density rely upon these assumptions. We present a hierarchical model allowing inference about the density of unmarked populations subject to temporary emigration and imperfect detection. The model can be fit to data collected using a variety of standard survey methods such as repeated point counts in which removal sampling, double-observer sampling, or distance sampling is used during each count. Simulation studies demonstrated that parameter estimators are unbiased when temporary emigration is either "completely random" or is determined by the size and location of home ranges relative to survey points. We also applied the model to repeated removal sampling data collected on Chestnut-sided Warblers (Dendroica pensylvancia) in the White Mountain National Forest, USA. The density estimate from our model, 1.09 birds/ha, was similar to an estimate of 1.11 birds/ha produced by an intensive spot-mapping effort. Our model is also applicable when processes other than temporary emigration affect the probability of being available for detection, such as in studies using cue counts. Functions to implement the model have been added to the R package unmarked.

Estimation of demographic parameters in a tiger population from long-term camera trap data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, K. Ullas; Nichols, James D.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Nichols, James D.; Karanth, K. Ullas

2011-01-01

Chapter 7 (Karanth et al.) illustrated the use of camera trapping in combination with closed population capture–recapture (CR) models to estimate densities of tigers Panthera tigris. Such estimates can be very useful for investigating variation across space for a particular species (e.g., Karanth et al. 2004) or variation among species at a specific location. In addition, estimates of density continued at the same site(s) over multiple years are very useful for understanding and managing populations of large carnivores. Such multi-year studies can yield estimates of rates of change in abundance. Additionally, because the fates of marked individuals are tracked through time, biologists can delve deeper into factors driving changes in abundance such as rates of survival, recruitment and movement (Williams et al. 2002). Fortunately, modern CR approaches permit the modeling of populations that change between sampling occasions as a result of births, deaths, immigration and emigration (Pollock et al. 1990; Nichols 1992). Some of these early “open population” models focused on estimation of survival rates and, to a lesser extent, abundance, but more recent models permit estimation of recruitment and movement rates as well.

Identification of metapopulation dynamics among Northern Goshawks of the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and Coastal British Columbia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; McClaren, Erica L.; Doyle, Frank I.; Titus, K.; Sage, George K.; Wilson, Robert E.; Gust, Judy R.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2012-01-01

Northern Goshawks occupying the Alexander Archipelago, Alaska, and coastal British Columbia nest primarily in old-growth and mature forest, which results in spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of individuals across the landscape. We used microsatellite and mitochondrial data to infer genetic structure, gene flow, and fluctuations in population demography through evolutionary time. Patterns in the genetic signatures were used to assess predictions associated with the three population models: panmixia, metapopulation, and isolated populations. Population genetic structure was observed along with asymmetry in gene flow estimates that changed directionality at different temporal scales, consistent with metapopulation model predictions. Therefore, Northern Goshawk assemblages located in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia interact through a metapopulation framework, though they may not fit the classic model of a metapopulation. Long-term population sources (coastal mainland British Columbia) and sinks (Revillagigedo and Vancouver islands) were identified. However, there was no trend through evolutionary time in the directionality of dispersal among the remaining assemblages, suggestive of a rescue-effect dynamic. Admiralty, Douglas, and Chichagof island complex appears to be an evolutionarily recent source population in the Alexander Archipelago. In addition, Kupreanof island complex and Kispiox Forest District populations have high dispersal rates to populations in close geographic proximity and potentially serve as local source populations. Metapopulation dynamics occurring in the Alexander Archipelago and coastal British Columbia by Northern Goshawks highlight the importance of both occupied and unoccupied habitats to long-term population persistence of goshawks in this region.

An Updating System for the Gridded Population Database of China Based on Remote Sensing, GIS and Spatial Database Technologies.

PubMed

Yang, Xiaohuan; Huang, Yaohuan; Dong, Pinliang; Jiang, Dong; Liu, Honghui

2009-01-01

The spatial distribution of population is closely related to land use and land cover (LULC) patterns on both regional and global scales. Population can be redistributed onto geo-referenced square grids according to this relation. In the past decades, various approaches to monitoring LULC using remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have been developed, which makes it possible for efficient updating of geo-referenced population data. A Spatial Population Updating System (SPUS) is developed for updating the gridded population database of China based on remote sensing, GIS and spatial database technologies, with a spatial resolution of 1 km by 1 km. The SPUS can process standard Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS L1B) data integrated with a Pattern Decomposition Method (PDM) and an LULC-Conversion Model to obtain patterns of land use and land cover, and provide input parameters for a Population Spatialization Model (PSM). The PSM embedded in SPUS is used for generating 1 km by 1 km gridded population data in each population distribution region based on natural and socio-economic variables. Validation results from finer township-level census data of Yishui County suggest that the gridded population database produced by the SPUS is reliable.

Reliability of Different Mark-Recapture Methods for Population Size Estimation Tested against Reference Population Sizes Constructed from Field Data

PubMed Central

Grimm, Annegret; Gruber, Bernd; Henle, Klaus

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of population size are fundamental in many ecological studies and biodiversity conservation. Selecting appropriate methods to estimate abundance is often very difficult, especially if data are scarce. Most studies concerning the reliability of different estimators used simulation data based on assumptions about capture variability that do not necessarily reflect conditions in natural populations. Here, we used data from an intensively studied closed population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata to construct reference population sizes for assessing twelve different population size estimators in terms of bias, precision, accuracy, and their 95%-confidence intervals. Two of the reference populations reflect natural biological entities, whereas the other reference populations reflect artificial subsets of the population. Since individual heterogeneity was assumed, we tested modifications of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, a set of models in programs MARK and CARE-2, and a truncated geometric distribution. Ranking of methods was similar across criteria. Models accounting for individual heterogeneity performed best in all assessment criteria. For populations from heterogeneous habitats without obvious covariates explaining individual heterogeneity, we recommend using the moment estimator or the interpolated jackknife estimator (both implemented in CAPTURE/MARK). If data for capture frequencies are substantial, we recommend the sample coverage or the estimating equation (both models implemented in CARE-2). Depending on the distribution of catchabilities, our proposed multiple Lincoln-Petersen and a truncated geometric distribution obtained comparably good results. The former usually resulted in a minimum population size and the latter can be recommended when there is a long tail of low capture probabilities. Models with covariates and mixture models performed poorly. Our approach identified suitable methods and extended options to evaluate the performance of mark-recapture population size estimators under field conditions, which is essential for selecting an appropriate method and obtaining reliable results in ecology and conservation biology, and thus for sound management. PMID:24896260

Genetic homogeneity across Bantu-speaking groups from Mozambique and Angola challenges early split scenarios between East and West Bantu populations.

PubMed

Alves, Isabel; Coelho, Margarida; Gignoux, Christopher; Damasceno, Albertino; Prista, Antonio; Rocha, Jorge

2011-02-01

The large scale spread of Bantu-speaking populations remains one of the most debated questions in African population history. In this work we studied the genetic structure of 19 Bantu-speaking groups from Mozambique and Angola using a multilocus approach based on 14 newly developed compound haplotype systems (UEPSTRs), each consisting of a rapidly evolving short tandem repeat (STR) closely linked to a unique event polymorphism (UEP). We compared the ability of UEPs, STRs and UEPSTRs to document genetic variation at the intercontinental level and among the African Bantu populations, and found that UEPSTR systems clearly provided more resolution than UEPs or STRs alone. The observed patterns of genetic variation revealed high levels of genetic homogeneity between major populations from Angola and Mozambique, with two main outliers: the Kuvale from Angola and the Chopi from Mozambique. Within Mozambique, two Kaskazi-speaking populations from the far north (Yao and Mwani) and two Nyasa-speaking groups from the Zambezi River basin (Nyungwe and Sena) could be differentiated from the remaining groups, but no further population structure was observed across the country. The close genetic relationship between most sampled Bantu populations is consistent with high degrees of interaction between peoples living in savanna areas located to the south of the rainforest. Our results highlight the role of gene flow during the Bantu expansions and show that the genetic evidence accumulated so far is becoming increasingly difficult to reconcile with widely accepted models postulating an early split between eastern and western Bantu populations.

The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations.

PubMed

Peel, A J; Pulliam, J R C; Luis, A D; Plowright, R K; O'Shea, T J; Hayman, D T S; Wood, J L N; Webb, C T; Restif, O

2014-07-07

The notion of a critical community size (CCS), or population size that is likely to result in long-term persistence of a communicable disease, has been developed based on the empirical observations of acute immunizing infections in human populations, and extended for use in wildlife populations. Seasonal birth pulses are frequently observed in wildlife and are expected to impact infection dynamics, yet their effect on pathogen persistence and CCS have not been considered. To investigate this issue theoretically, we use stochastic epidemiological models to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population. We fit seasonal birth pulse models to data from diverse mammalian species in order to identify realistic parameter ranges. When varying the synchrony of the birth pulse with all other parameters being constant, our model predicted that the CCS can vary by more than two orders of magnitude. Tighter birth pulses tended to drive pathogen extinction by creating large amplitude oscillations in prevalence, especially with high demographic turnover and short infectious periods. Parameters affecting the relative timing of the epidemic and birth pulse peaks determined the intensity and direction of the effect of pre-existing immunity in the population on the pathogen's ability to persist beyond the initial epidemic following its introduction.

The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations

PubMed Central

Peel, A. J.; Pulliam, J. R. C.; Luis, A. D.; Plowright, R. K.; O'Shea, T. J.; Hayman, D. T. S.; Wood, J. L. N.; Webb, C. T.; Restif, O.

2014-01-01

The notion of a critical community size (CCS), or population size that is likely to result in long-term persistence of a communicable disease, has been developed based on the empirical observations of acute immunizing infections in human populations, and extended for use in wildlife populations. Seasonal birth pulses are frequently observed in wildlife and are expected to impact infection dynamics, yet their effect on pathogen persistence and CCS have not been considered. To investigate this issue theoretically, we use stochastic epidemiological models to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population. We fit seasonal birth pulse models to data from diverse mammalian species in order to identify realistic parameter ranges. When varying the synchrony of the birth pulse with all other parameters being constant, our model predicted that the CCS can vary by more than two orders of magnitude. Tighter birth pulses tended to drive pathogen extinction by creating large amplitude oscillations in prevalence, especially with high demographic turnover and short infectious periods. Parameters affecting the relative timing of the epidemic and birth pulse peaks determined the intensity and direction of the effect of pre-existing immunity in the population on the pathogen's ability to persist beyond the initial epidemic following its introduction. PMID:24827436

Using SNPs with varying specificity to quantify hybridization between closely related but genetically distinct moth populations in the wild

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Invasive insect species can potentially hybridize with closely related native populations to produce new phenotypes with deleterious economic and environmental consequences. Monitoring such events is often problematic because populations that can interbreed are typically sufficiently similar that it...

Entropy, Ergodicity, and Stem Cell Multipotency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridden, Sonya J.; Chang, Hannah H.; Zygalakis, Konstantinos C.; MacArthur, Ben D.

2015-11-01

Populations of mammalian stem cells commonly exhibit considerable cell-cell variability. However, the functional role of this diversity is unclear. Here, we analyze expression fluctuations of the stem cell surface marker Sca1 in mouse hematopoietic progenitor cells using a simple stochastic model and find that the observed dynamics naturally lie close to a critical state, thereby producing a diverse population that is able to respond rapidly to environmental changes. We propose an information-theoretic interpretation of these results that views cellular multipotency as an instance of maximum entropy statistical inference.

Randomization-Based Inference about Latent Variables from Complex Samples: The Case of Two-Stage Sampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Tiandong

2012-01-01

In large-scale assessments, such as the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), plausible values based on Multiple Imputations (MI) have been used to estimate population characteristics for latent constructs under complex sample designs. Mislevy (1991) derived a closed-form analytic solution for a fixed-effect model in creating…

Habitat capability model for birds wintering in the Black Hills, South Dakota

Treesearch

Mark A. Rumble; Todd R. Mills; Lester D. Flake

1999-01-01

Birds are sensitive indicators of vegetation conditions because they have relatively narrow habitat requirements (Martin and Finch 1995). Resident bird populations are relatively stable in winter (Ralph et al. 1993) and more closely associated with specific habitats than during summer (Huff et al. 1991, Manuwal and Huff 1987). Winter can be critical for birds in...

Estimation and Partitioning of Heritability in Human Populations using Whole Genome Analysis Methods

PubMed Central

Vinkhuyzen, Anna AE; Wray, Naomi R; Yang, Jian; Goddard, Michael E; Visscher, Peter M

2014-01-01

Understanding genetic variation of complex traits in human populations has moved from the quantification of the resemblance between close relatives to the dissection of genetic variation into the contributions of individual genomic loci. But major questions remain unanswered: how much phenotypic variation is genetic, how much of the genetic variation is additive and what is the joint distribution of effect size and allele frequency at causal variants? We review and compare three whole-genome analysis methods that use mixed linear models (MLM) to estimate genetic variation, using the relationship between close or distant relatives based on pedigree or SNPs. We discuss theory, estimation procedures, bias and precision of each method and review recent advances in the dissection of additive genetic variation of complex traits in human populations that are based upon the application of MLM. Using genome wide data, SNPs account for far more of the genetic variation than the highly significant SNPs associated with a trait, but they do not account for all of the genetic variance estimated by pedigree based methods. We explain possible reasons for this ‘missing’ heritability. PMID:23988118

Trade-off between light availability and soil fertility determine refugial conditions for the relict light-demanding species in lowland forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiedrzyński, Marcin; Kurowski, Józef Krzysztof; Kiedrzyńska, Edyta

2017-11-01

Identifying potential refugial habitats in the face of rapid environmental change is a challenge faced by scientists and nature conservation managers. Relict populations and refugial habitats are the model objects in those studies. Based on the example of Actaea europaea from Central Poland, we analyse the habitat factors influencing relict populations of continental, light-demanding species in lowland forests and examine which habitats of studied species corresponding most closely to ancient vegetation. Our results indicate that the current refugial habitats of Actaea europaea include not only communities which are very similar to ancient open forest but also forests with a closed canopy. Although the populations are influenced by nitrogen and light availability, the co-occurrence of these two factors in forest communities is limited by dense canopy formation by hornbeam and beech trees on fertile soils and in more humid conditions. Our findings indicate that the future survival of relict, light-demanding communities in lowland forests requires low-intensity disturbances to be performed in tree-stands, according to techniques, which imitate traditional forests management.

Selecting Summary Statistics in Approximate Bayesian Computation for Calibrating Stochastic Models

PubMed Central

Burr, Tom

2013-01-01

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an approach for using measurement data to calibrate stochastic computer models, which are common in biology applications. ABC is becoming the “go-to” option when the data and/or parameter dimension is large because it relies on user-chosen summary statistics rather than the full data and is therefore computationally feasible. One technical challenge with ABC is that the quality of the approximation to the posterior distribution of model parameters depends on the user-chosen summary statistics. In this paper, the user requirement to choose effective summary statistics in order to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters is investigated and illustrated by example, using a model and corresponding real data of mitochondrial DNA population dynamics. We show that for some choices of summary statistics, the posterior distribution of model parameters is closely approximated and for other choices of summary statistics, the posterior distribution is not closely approximated. A strategy to choose effective summary statistics is suggested in cases where the stochastic computer model can be run at many trial parameter settings, as in the example. PMID:24288668

Selecting summary statistics in approximate Bayesian computation for calibrating stochastic models.

PubMed

Burr, Tom; Skurikhin, Alexei

2013-01-01

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an approach for using measurement data to calibrate stochastic computer models, which are common in biology applications. ABC is becoming the "go-to" option when the data and/or parameter dimension is large because it relies on user-chosen summary statistics rather than the full data and is therefore computationally feasible. One technical challenge with ABC is that the quality of the approximation to the posterior distribution of model parameters depends on the user-chosen summary statistics. In this paper, the user requirement to choose effective summary statistics in order to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters is investigated and illustrated by example, using a model and corresponding real data of mitochondrial DNA population dynamics. We show that for some choices of summary statistics, the posterior distribution of model parameters is closely approximated and for other choices of summary statistics, the posterior distribution is not closely approximated. A strategy to choose effective summary statistics is suggested in cases where the stochastic computer model can be run at many trial parameter settings, as in the example.

Genome-wide Selective Sweeps in Natural Bacterial Populations Revealed by Time-series Metagenomics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chan, Leong-Keat; Bendall, Matthew L.; Malfatti, Stephanie

2014-05-12

Multiple evolutionary models have been proposed to explain the formation of genetically and ecologically distinct bacterial groups. Time-series metagenomics enables direct observation of evolutionary processes in natural populations, and if applied over a sufficiently long time frame, this approach could capture events such as gene-specific or genome-wide selective sweeps. Direct observations of either process could help resolve how distinct groups form in natural microbial assemblages. Here, from a three-year metagenomic study of a freshwater lake, we explore changes in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequencies and patterns of gene gain and loss in populations of Chlorobiaceae and Methylophilaceae. SNP analyses revealedmore » substantial genetic heterogeneity within these populations, although the degree of heterogeneity varied considerably among closely related, co-occurring Methylophilaceae populations. SNP allele frequencies, as well as the relative abundance of certain genes, changed dramatically over time in each population. Interestingly, SNP diversity was purged at nearly every genome position in one of the Chlorobiaceae populations over the course of three years, while at the same time multiple genes either swept through or were swept from this population. These patterns were consistent with a genome-wide selective sweep, a process predicted by the ecotype model? of diversification, but not previously observed in natural populations.« less

Formation and Internal Structure of Terrestrial Planets, and Atmospheric Escape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, S.

2014-11-01

As of 2014 April 21, over 1490 confirmed exoplanets and 3705 Kepler candidates have been detected. This implies that exoplanets may be ubiquitous in the universe. In this paper, we focus on the formation, evolution, and internal structure of terrestrial planets, and the atmospheric escape of close-in planets. In chapter 2, we investigate the dynamical evolution of planetary system after the protoplanetary disk has dissipated. We find that in the final assembly stage, the occurrence of terrestrial planets is quite common and in 40% of our simulations finally at least one planet is formed in the habitable zone. We also find that if there is a highly-inclined giant planet in the system, a great many bodies will be either driven out of the system, or collide with the giant planet or the central star. This will lead to the difficulty in planetary accretion. Moreover, our results show that planetary migration can lead to the formation of close-in planets. Besides migration, close-in terrestrial planets can also be formed by a collision-merger mechanism, which means that planetary embryos can kick terrestrial planets directly into orbits that are extremely close to their parent stars. In chapter 3, we construct numerically an internal structure model for terrestrial planets, and provide three kinds of possible internal structures of Europa (Jupiter's moon) based on this model. Then, we calculate the radii of low-mass exoplanets for various mass combinations of core and mantle, and find that some of them are inconsistent with the observed radius of rocky planets. This phenomenon can be explained only if there exists a large amount of water in the core, or they own gaseous envelopes. In chapter 4, we improve our planetary evolution codes using the semi-gray model of Guillot (2010), which includes the incident flux from the host star as a heating source in planetary atmosphere. The updated codes can solve the structure of the top radiative zone of intensely irradiated planets, and thus can simulate the atmospheric escape of close-in planets driven by strong stellar X-ray or EUV emissions. We find that low-mass planets are sensitive to the atmospheric escape, and they could lose all their initial H/He envelopes during the evolution. On the other hand, gas giant can only lose a small fraction of their initial envelopes. We then carry out a parameter study of atmospheric escape at the planetary core mass, envelope mass fraction, and semi-major axis space. We find that the most intense phase of evaporation occurs within the early 100 Myr. Afterwards, atmospheric escape only has a small impact on the planetary evolution. In chapter 5, we apply our new planetary evolution model to different synthetic planet populations that are directly produced by the core-accretion paradigm (Mordasini et al. 2012a,b). We show that although the mass distribution of the planet populations is hardly affected by evaporation, the radius distribution clearly shows a break around 2 R_{⊕}. This break leads to a bimodal distribution in planet sizes (Owen & Wu 2013). Furthermore, the bimodal distribution is related to the initial characteristics of the planetary populations. We find that in two extreme cases, namely without any evaporation or with a 100% heating efficiency in the evaporation model, the final radius distributions show significant differences compared to the radius distribution of Kepler candidates. In chapter 6, we introduce a radiative transfer model that can calculate the radiation spectrum of close-in exoplanets.

Modelling space of spread Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) in Central Java use spatial durbin model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ispriyanti, Dwi; Prahutama, Alan; Taryono, Arkadina PN

2018-05-01

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever is one of the major public health problems in Indonesia. From year to year, DHF causes Extraordinary Event in most parts of Indonesia, especially Central Java. Central Java consists of 35 districts or cities where each region is close to each other. Spatial regression is an analysis that suspects the influence of independent variables on the dependent variables with the influences of the region inside. In spatial regression modeling, there are spatial autoregressive model (SAR), spatial error model (SEM) and spatial autoregressive moving average (SARMA). Spatial Durbin model is the development of SAR where the dependent and independent variable have spatial influence. In this research dependent variable used is number of DHF sufferers. The independent variables observed are population density, number of hospitals, residents and health centers, and mean years of schooling. From the multiple regression model test, the variables that significantly affect the spread of DHF disease are the population and mean years of schooling. By using queen contiguity and rook contiguity, the best model produced is the SDM model with queen contiguity because it has the smallest AIC value of 494,12. Factors that generally affect the spread of DHF in Central Java Province are the number of population and the average length of school.

Modeling the effects of trophy selection and environmental disturbance on a simulated population of African lions.

PubMed

Whitman, Karyl L; Starfield, Anthony M; Quadling, Henley; Packer, Craig

2007-06-01

Tanzania is a premier destination for trophy hunting of African lions (Panthera leo) and is home to the most extensive long-term study of unhunted lions. Thus, it provides a unique opportunity to apply data from a long-term field study to a conservation dilemma: How can a trophy-hunted species whose reproductive success is closely tied to social stability be harvested sustainably? We used an individually based, spatially explicit, stochastic model, parameterized with nearly 40 years of behavioral and demographic data on lions in the Serengeti, to examine the separate effects of trophy selection and environmental disturbance on the viability of a simulated lion population in response to annual harvesting. Female population size was sensitive to the harvesting of young males (> or = 3 years), whereas hunting represented a relatively trivial threat to population viability when the harvest was restricted to mature males (> or = 6 years). Overall model performance was robust to environmental disturbance and to errors in age assessment based on nose coloration as an index used to age potential trophies. Introducing an environmental disturbance did not eliminate the capacity to maintain a viable breeding population when harvesting only older males, and initially depleted populations recovered within 15-25 years after the disturbance to levels comparable to hunted populations that did not experience a catastrophic event. These results are consistent with empirical observations of lion resilience to environmental stochasticity.

Using Agent-Based Modelling to Predict the Role of Wild Refugia in the Evolution of Resistance of Sea Lice to Chemotherapeutants

PubMed Central

McEwan, Gregor F.; Groner, Maya L.; Fast, Mark D.; Revie, Crawford W.

2015-01-01

A major challenge for Atlantic salmon farming in the northern hemisphere is infestation by the sea louse parasite Lepeophtheirus salmonis. The most frequent method of controlling these sea louse infestations is through the use of chemical treatments. However, most major salmon farming areas have observed resistance to common chemotherapeutants. In terrestrial environments, many strategies employed to manage the evolution of resistance involve the use of refugia, where a portion of the population is left untreated to maintain susceptibility. While refugia have not been deliberately used in Atlantic salmon farming, wild salmon populations that migrate close to salmon farms may act as natural refugia. In this paper we describe an agent-based model that explores the influence of different sizes of wild salmon populations on resistance evolution in sea lice on a salmon farm. Using the model, we demonstrate that wild salmon populations can act as refugia that limit the evolution of resistance in the sea louse populations. Additionally, we demonstrate that an increase in the size of the population of wild salmon results in an increased effect in slowing the evolution of resistance. We explore the effect of a population fitness cost associated with resistance, finding that in some cases it substantially reduces the speed of evolution to chemical treatments. PMID:26485023

AGENT-BASED MODELS IN EMPIRICAL SOCIAL RESEARCH*

PubMed Central

Bruch, Elizabeth; Atwell, Jon

2014-01-01

Agent-based modeling has become increasingly popular in recent years, but there is still no codified set of recommendations or practices for how to use these models within a program of empirical research. This article provides ideas and practical guidelines drawn from sociology, biology, computer science, epidemiology, and statistics. We first discuss the motivations for using agent-based models in both basic science and policy-oriented social research. Next, we provide an overview of methods and strategies for incorporating data on behavior and populations into agent-based models, and review techniques for validating and testing the sensitivity of agent-based models. We close with suggested directions for future research. PMID:25983351

A two-stage model of fracture of rocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuksenko, V.; Tomilin, N.; Damaskinskaya, E.; Lockner, D.

1996-01-01

In this paper we propose a two-stage model of rock fracture. In the first stage, cracks or local regions of failure are uncorrelated occur randomly throughout the rock in response to loading of pre-existing flaws. As damage accumulates in the rock, there is a gradual increase in the probability that large clusters of closely spaced cracks or local failure sites will develop. Based on statistical arguments, a critical density of damage will occur where clusters of flaws become large enough to lead to larger-scale failure of the rock (stage two). While crack interaction and cooperative failure is expected to occur within clusters of closely spaced cracks, the initial development of clusters is predicted based on the random variation in pre-existing Saw populations. Thus the onset of the unstable second stage in the model can be computed from the generation of random, uncorrelated damage. The proposed model incorporates notions of the kinetic (and therefore time-dependent) nature of the strength of solids as well as the discrete hierarchic structure of rocks and the flaw populations that lead to damage accumulation. The advantage offered by this model is that its salient features are valid for fracture processes occurring over a wide range of scales including earthquake processes. A notion of the rank of fracture (fracture size) is introduced, and criteria are presented for both fracture nucleation and the transition of the failure process from one scale to another.

The international performance of healthcare systems in population health: capabilities of pooled cross-sectional time series methods.

PubMed

Reibling, Nadine

2013-09-01

This paper outlines the capabilities of pooled cross-sectional time series methodology for the international comparison of health system performance in population health. It shows how common model specifications can be improved so that they not only better address the specific nature of time series data on population health but are also more closely aligned with our theoretical expectations of the effect of healthcare systems. Three methodological innovations for this field of applied research are discussed: (1) how dynamic models help us understand the timing of effects, (2) how parameter heterogeneity can be used to compare performance across countries, and (3) how multiple imputation can be used to deal with incomplete data. We illustrate these methodological strategies with an analysis of infant mortality rates in 21 OECD countries between 1960 and 2008 using OECD Health Data. Copyright © 2013 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Rhythmic behavior in a two-population mean-field Ising model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collet, Francesca; Formentin, Marco; Tovazzi, Daniele

2016-10-01

Many real systems composed of a large number of interacting components, as, for instance, neural networks, may exhibit collective periodic behavior even though single components have no natural tendency to behave periodically. Macroscopic oscillations are indeed one of the most common self-organized behavior observed in living systems. In the present paper we study some dynamical features of a two-population generalization of the mean-field Ising model with the scope of investigating simple mechanisms capable to generate rhythms in large groups of interacting individuals. We show that the system may undergo a transition from a disordered phase, where the magnetization of each population fluctuates closely around zero, to a phase in which they both display a macroscopic regular rhythm. In particular, there exists a region in the parameter space where having two groups of spins with inter- and intrapopulation interactions of different strengths suffices for the emergence of a robust periodic behavior.

Pedigree-based estimation of covariance between dominance deviations and additive genetic effects in closed rabbit lines considering inbreeding and using a computationally simpler equivalent model.

PubMed

Fernández, E N; Legarra, A; Martínez, R; Sánchez, J P; Baselga, M

2017-06-01

Inbreeding generates covariances between additive and dominance effects (breeding values and dominance deviations). In this work, we developed and applied models for estimation of dominance and additive genetic variances and their covariance, a model that we call "full dominance," from pedigree and phenotypic data. Estimates with this model such as presented here are very scarce both in livestock and in wild genetics. First, we estimated pedigree-based condensed probabilities of identity using recursion. Second, we developed an equivalent linear model in which variance components can be estimated using closed-form algorithms such as REML or Gibbs sampling and existing software. Third, we present a new method to refer the estimated variance components to meaningful parameters in a particular population, i.e., final partially inbred generations as opposed to outbred base populations. We applied these developments to three closed rabbit lines (A, V and H) selected for number of weaned at the Polytechnic University of Valencia. Pedigree and phenotypes are complete and span 43, 39 and 14 generations, respectively. Estimates of broad-sense heritability are 0.07, 0.07 and 0.05 at the base versus 0.07, 0.07 and 0.09 in the final generations. Narrow-sense heritability estimates are 0.06, 0.06 and 0.02 at the base versus 0.04, 0.04 and 0.01 at the final generations. There is also a reduction in the genotypic variance due to the negative additive-dominance correlation. Thus, the contribution of dominance variation is fairly large and increases with inbreeding and (over)compensates for the loss in additive variation. In addition, estimates of the additive-dominance correlation are -0.37, -0.31 and 0.00, in agreement with the few published estimates and theoretical considerations. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations.

PubMed

Grefenstette, John J; Brown, Shawn T; Rosenfeld, Roni; DePasse, Jay; Stone, Nathan T B; Cooley, Phillip C; Wheaton, William D; Fyshe, Alona; Galloway, David D; Sriram, Anuroop; Guclu, Hasan; Abraham, Thomas; Burke, Donald S

2013-10-08

Mathematical and computational models provide valuable tools that help public health planners to evaluate competing health interventions, especially for novel circumstances that cannot be examined through observational or controlled studies, such as pandemic influenza. The spread of diseases like influenza depends on the mixing patterns within the population, and these mixing patterns depend in part on local factors including the spatial distribution and age structure of the population, the distribution of size and composition of households, employment status and commuting patterns of adults, and the size and age structure of schools. Finally, public health planners must take into account the health behavior patterns of the population, patterns that often vary according to socioeconomic factors such as race, household income, and education levels. FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics) is a freely available open-source agent-based modeling system based closely on models used in previously published studies of pandemic influenza. This version of FRED uses open-access census-based synthetic populations that capture the demographic and geographic heterogeneities of the population, including realistic household, school, and workplace social networks. FRED epidemic models are currently available for every state and county in the United States, and for selected international locations. State and county public health planners can use FRED to explore the effects of possible influenza epidemics in specific geographic regions of interest and to help evaluate the effect of interventions such as vaccination programs and school closure policies. FRED is available under a free open source license in order to contribute to the development of better modeling tools and to encourage open discussion of modeling tools being used to evaluate public health policies. We also welcome participation by other researchers in the further development of FRED.

Modelling the impact of altered axonal morphometry on the response of regenerative nervous tissue to electrical stimulation through macro-sieve electrodes.

PubMed

Zellmer, Erik R; MacEwan, Matthew R; Moran, Daniel W

2018-04-01

Regenerated peripheral nervous tissue possesses different morphometric properties compared to undisrupted nerve. It is poorly understood how these morphometric differences alter the response of the regenerated nerve to electrical stimulation. In this work, we use computational modeling to explore the electrophysiological response of regenerated and undisrupted nerve axons to electrical stimulation delivered by macro-sieve electrodes (MSEs). A 3D finite element model of a peripheral nerve segment populated with mammalian myelinated axons and implanted with a macro-sieve electrode has been developed. Fiber diameters and morphometric characteristics representative of undisrupted or regenerated peripheral nervous tissue were assigned to core conductor models to simulate the two tissue types. Simulations were carried out to quantify differences in thresholds and chronaxie between undisrupted and regenerated fiber populations. The model was also used to determine the influence of axonal caliber on recruitment thresholds for the two tissue types. Model accuracy was assessed through comparisons with in vivo recruitment data from chronically implanted MSEs. Recruitment thresholds of individual regenerated fibers with diameters  >2 µm were found to be lower compared to same caliber undisrupted fibers at electrode to fiber distances of less than about 90-140 µm but roughly equal or higher for larger distances. Caliber redistributions observed in regenerated nerve resulted in an overall increase in average recruitment thresholds and chronaxie during whole nerve stimulation. Modeling results also suggest that large diameter undisrupted fibers located close to a longitudinally restricted current source such as the MSE have higher average recruitment thresholds compared to small diameter fibers. In contrast, large diameter regenerated nerve fibers located in close proximity of MSE sites have, on average, lower recruitment thresholds compared to small fibers. Utilizing regenerated fiber morphometry and caliber distributions resulted in accurate predictions of in vivo recruitment data. Our work uses computational modeling to show how morphometric differences between regenerated and undisrupted tissue results in recruitment threshold discrepancies, quantifies these differences, and illustrates how large undisrupted nerve fibers close to longitudinally restricted current sources have higher recruitment thresholds compared to adjacently positioned smaller fibers while the opposite is true for large regenerated fibers.

Modelling the impact of altered axonal morphometry on the response of regenerative nervous tissue to electrical stimulation through macro-sieve electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zellmer, Erik R.; MacEwan, Matthew R.; Moran, Daniel W.

2018-04-01

Objective. Regenerated peripheral nervous tissue possesses different morphometric properties compared to undisrupted nerve. It is poorly understood how these morphometric differences alter the response of the regenerated nerve to electrical stimulation. In this work, we use computational modeling to explore the electrophysiological response of regenerated and undisrupted nerve axons to electrical stimulation delivered by macro-sieve electrodes (MSEs). Approach. A 3D finite element model of a peripheral nerve segment populated with mammalian myelinated axons and implanted with a macro-sieve electrode has been developed. Fiber diameters and morphometric characteristics representative of undisrupted or regenerated peripheral nervous tissue were assigned to core conductor models to simulate the two tissue types. Simulations were carried out to quantify differences in thresholds and chronaxie between undisrupted and regenerated fiber populations. The model was also used to determine the influence of axonal caliber on recruitment thresholds for the two tissue types. Model accuracy was assessed through comparisons with in vivo recruitment data from chronically implanted MSEs. Main results. Recruitment thresholds of individual regenerated fibers with diameters  >2 µm were found to be lower compared to same caliber undisrupted fibers at electrode to fiber distances of less than about 90-140 µm but roughly equal or higher for larger distances. Caliber redistributions observed in regenerated nerve resulted in an overall increase in average recruitment thresholds and chronaxie during whole nerve stimulation. Modeling results also suggest that large diameter undisrupted fibers located close to a longitudinally restricted current source such as the MSE have higher average recruitment thresholds compared to small diameter fibers. In contrast, large diameter regenerated nerve fibers located in close proximity of MSE sites have, on average, lower recruitment thresholds compared to small fibers. Utilizing regenerated fiber morphometry and caliber distributions resulted in accurate predictions of in vivo recruitment data. Significance. Our work uses computational modeling to show how morphometric differences between regenerated and undisrupted tissue results in recruitment threshold discrepancies, quantifies these differences, and illustrates how large undisrupted nerve fibers close to longitudinally restricted current sources have higher recruitment thresholds compared to adjacently positioned smaller fibers while the opposite is true for large regenerated fibers.

Terminal Pleistocene Alaskan genome reveals first founding population of Native Americans.

PubMed

Moreno-Mayar, J Víctor; Potter, Ben A; Vinner, Lasse; Steinrücken, Matthias; Rasmussen, Simon; Terhorst, Jonathan; Kamm, John A; Albrechtsen, Anders; Malaspinas, Anna-Sapfo; Sikora, Martin; Reuther, Joshua D; Irish, Joel D; Malhi, Ripan S; Orlando, Ludovic; Song, Yun S; Nielsen, Rasmus; Meltzer, David J; Willerslev, Eske

2018-01-11

Despite broad agreement that the Americas were initially populated via Beringia, the land bridge that connected far northeast Asia with northwestern North America during the Pleistocene epoch, when and how the peopling of the Americas occurred remains unresolved. Analyses of human remains from Late Pleistocene Alaska are important to resolving the timing and dispersal of these populations. The remains of two infants were recovered at Upward Sun River (USR), and have been dated to around 11.5 thousand years ago (ka). Here, by sequencing the USR1 genome to an average coverage of approximately 17 times, we show that USR1 is most closely related to Native Americans, but falls basal to all previously sequenced contemporary and ancient Native Americans. As such, USR1 represents a distinct Ancient Beringian population. Using demographic modelling, we infer that the Ancient Beringian population and ancestors of other Native Americans descended from a single founding population that initially split from East Asians around 36 ± 1.5 ka, with gene flow persisting until around 25 ± 1.1 ka. Gene flow from ancient north Eurasians into all Native Americans took place 25-20 ka, with Ancient Beringians branching off around 22-18.1 ka. Our findings support a long-term genetic structure in ancestral Native Americans, consistent with the Beringian 'standstill model'. We show that the basal northern and southern Native American branches, to which all other Native Americans belong, diverged around 17.5-14.6 ka, and that this probably occurred south of the North American ice sheets. We also show that after 11.5 ka, some of the northern Native American populations received gene flow from a Siberian population most closely related to Koryaks, but not Palaeo-Eskimos, Inuits or Kets, and that Native American gene flow into Inuits was through northern and not southern Native American groups. Our findings further suggest that the far-northern North American presence of northern Native Americans is from a back migration that replaced or absorbed the initial founding population of Ancient Beringians.

Understanding the Origin of Species with Genome-Scale Data: the Role of Gene Flow

PubMed Central

Sousa, Vitor; Hey, Jody

2017-01-01

As it becomes easier to sequence multiple genomes from closely related species, evolutionary biologists working on speciation are struggling to get the most out of very large population-genomic data sets. Such data hold the potential to resolve evolutionary biology’s long-standing questions about the role of gene exchange in species formation. In principle the new population genomic data can be used to disentangle the conflicting roles of natural selection and gene flow during the divergence process. However there are great challenges in taking full advantage of such data, especially with regard to including recombination in genetic models of the divergence process. Current data, models, methods and the potential pitfalls in using them will be considered here. PMID:23657479

Response of fish population dynamics to mitigation activities in a large regulated river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watkins, Carson J.; Ross, Tyler J.; Quist, Michael C.; Hardy, Ryan S.

2017-01-01

Extensive water development in large rivers has precipitated many negative ecological effects on native fish populations. Mitigation for such development often focuses on restoring biological integrity through remediation of the physical and chemical properties of regulated rivers. However, evaluating and defining the success of those programs can be difficult. We modeled the influence of mitigation-related environmental factors on growth and recruitment of two ecologically important native fish species (Largescale Sucker Catostomus macrocheilus and Mountain Whitefish Prosopium williamsoni) in the Kootenai River, Idaho. Artificial nutrient (phosphorus) addition best predicted the variability in annual growth of both species. Nutrient addition was positively related to Largescale Sucker growth but negatively related to Mountain Whitefish growth. The best model explained 82% of the annual variability in incremental growth for Largescale Suckers and 61% of the annual variability for Mountain Whitefish. Year-class strength of Largescale Suckers was not closely related to any of the environmental variables evaluated; however, year-class strength of Mountain Whitefish was closely associated with nutrient addition, discharge, and temperature. Most research has focused on biotic assemblages to evaluate the effects of mitigation activities on fishes, but there is an increased need to identify the influence of rehabilitation activities on fish population dynamics within those assemblages. Here, we demonstrate how fish growth can serve as an indicator of rehabilitation success in a highly regulated large river. Future fish restoration projects can likely benefit from a change in scope and from consideration of an evaluation framework involving the response of population rate functions to mitigation.

Efficacy of feral pig removals at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Steven C.; Jeffrey, John J.; Ball, Donna; Babich, Lev

2006-01-01

We compiled and analyzed data from 1987–2004 on feral pig (Sus scrofa) management and monitoring activities at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, a tropical montane rainforest on the island of Hawai`i. These data included annual surveys of feral pig and cattle (Bos taurus) activity, the number of feral ungulates removed from closed management units, age and reproductive status from necropsies, and vegetation surveys repeated 4 times over a 16 year period. We found an essentially even sex ratio within the feral pig population and within age classes, although males lived to 60 months while females lived to only 48 months. The pregnancy rate was 23.5%, and lactation rate was 8.3%, regardless of season and age, but lactation peaked in April-June. Reproductive rates also increased with age, peaking at 2–4 years in females. We reconstructed the standing population within a closed unit to examine demographic processes. We estimated that annual removal in excess of approximately 41–43% would be necessary to affect a population decline. We examined annual feral pig activity surveys and found a strong and sustained decline in pig sign after 1997 relative to unmanaged areas. We related the standing population to feral pig activity surveys to build a predictive model of feral pig density, and then applied this model to other management units. We evaluated control methods and found snaring to be more efficient than staff or public hunting. Vegetation monitoring revealed a strong temporal increase in cover of native ferns, and marginally non-significant decreases in cover of bryophytes and exposed soil.

A crystal plasticity model for slip in hexagonal close packed metals based on discrete dislocation simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messner, Mark C.; Rhee, Moono; Arsenlis, Athanasios; Barton, Nathan R.

2017-06-01

This work develops a method for calibrating a crystal plasticity model to the results of discrete dislocation (DD) simulations. The crystal model explicitly represents junction formation and annihilation mechanisms and applies these mechanisms to describe hardening in hexagonal close packed metals. The model treats these dislocation mechanisms separately from elastic interactions among populations of dislocations, which the model represents through a conventional strength-interaction matrix. This split between elastic interactions and junction formation mechanisms more accurately reproduces the DD data and results in a multi-scale model that better represents the lower scale physics. The fitting procedure employs concepts of machine learning—feature selection by regularized regression and cross-validation—to develop a robust, physically accurate crystal model. The work also presents a method for ensuring the final, calibrated crystal model respects the physical symmetries of the crystal system. Calibrating the crystal model requires fitting two linear operators: one describing elastic dislocation interactions and another describing junction formation and annihilation dislocation reactions. The structure of these operators in the final, calibrated model reflect the crystal symmetry and slip system geometry of the DD simulations.

Statistical inference for capture-recapture experiments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollock, Kenneth H.; Nichols, James D.; Brownie, Cavell; Hines, James E.

1990-01-01

This monograph presents a detailed, practical exposition on the design, analysis, and interpretation of capture-recapture studies. The Lincoln-Petersen model (Chapter 2) and the closed population models (Chapter 3) are presented only briefly because these models have been covered in detail elsewhere. The Jolly- Seber open population model, which is central to the monograph, is covered in detail in Chapter 4. In Chapter 5 we consider the "enumeration" or "calendar of captures" approach, which is widely used by mammalogists and other vertebrate ecologists. We strongly recommend that it be abandoned in favor of analyses based on the Jolly-Seber model. We consider 2 restricted versions of the Jolly-Seber model. We believe the first of these, which allows losses (mortality or emigration) but not additions (births or immigration), is likely to be useful in practice. Another series of restrictive models requires the assumptions of a constant survival rate or a constant survival rate and a constant capture rate for the duration of the study. Detailed examples are given that illustrate the usefulness of these restrictions. There often can be a substantial gain in precision over Jolly-Seber estimates. In Chapter 5 we also consider 2 generalizations of the Jolly-Seber model. The temporary trap response model allows newly marked animals to have different survival and capture rates for 1 period. The other generalization is the cohort Jolly-Seber model. Ideally all animals would be marked as young, and age effects considered by using the Jolly-Seber model on each cohort separately. In Chapter 6 we present a detailed description of an age-dependent Jolly-Seber model, which can be used when 2 or more identifiable age classes are marked. In Chapter 7 we present a detailed description of the "robust" design. Under this design each primary period contains several secondary sampling periods. We propose an estimation procedure based on closed and open population models that allows for heterogeneity and trap response of capture rates (hence the name robust design). We begin by considering just 1 age class and then extend to 2 age classes. When there are 2 age classes it is possible to distinguish immigrants and births. In Chapter 8 we give a detailed discussion of the design of capture-recapture studies. First, capture-recapture is compared to other possible sampling procedures. Next, the design of capture-recapture studies to minimize assumption violations is considered. Finally, we consider the precision of parameter estimates and present figures on proportional standard errors for a variety of initial parameter values to aid the biologist about to plan a study. A new program, JOLLY, has been written to accompany the material on the Jolly-Seber model (Chapter 4) and its extensions (Chapter 5). Another new program, JOLLYAGE, has been written for a special case of the age-dependent model (Chapter 6) where there are only 2 age classes. In Chapter 9 a brief description of the different versions of the 2 programs is given. Chapter 10 gives a brief description of some alternative approaches that were not considered in this monograph. We believe that an excellent overall view of capture- recapture models may be obtained by reading the monograph by White et al. (1982) emphasizing closed models and then reading this monograph where we concentrate on open models. The important recent monograph by Burnham et al. (1987) could then be read if there were interest in the comparison of different populations.

Predominance of Movement Speed Over Direction in Neuronal Population Signals of Motor Cortex: Intracranial EEG Data and A Simple Explanatory Model

PubMed Central

Hammer, Jiří; Pistohl, Tobias; Fischer, Jörg; Kršek, Pavel; Tomášek, Martin; Marusič, Petr; Schulze-Bonhage, Andreas; Aertsen, Ad; Ball, Tonio

2016-01-01

How neuronal activity of motor cortex is related to movement is a central topic in motor neuroscience. Motor-cortical single neurons are more closely related to hand movement velocity than speed, that is, the magnitude of the (directional) velocity vector. Recently, there is also increasing interest in the representation of movement parameters in neuronal population activity, such as reflected in the intracranial EEG (iEEG). We show that in iEEG, contrasting to what has been previously found on the single neuron level, speed predominates over velocity. The predominant speed representation was present in nearly all iEEG signal features, up to the 600–1000 Hz range. Using a model of motor-cortical signals arising from neuronal populations with realistic single neuron tuning properties, we show how this reversal can be understood as a consequence of increasing population size. Our findings demonstrate that the information profile in large population signals may systematically differ from the single neuron level, a principle that may be helpful in the interpretation of neuronal population signals in general, including, for example, EEG and functional magnetic resonance imaging. Taking advantage of the robust speed population signal may help in developing brain–machine interfaces exploiting population signals. PMID:26984895

Population profiling in China by gender and age: implication for HIV incidences.

PubMed

Pan, Yuanyi; Wu, Jianhong

2009-11-18

With the world's largest population, HIV spread in China has been closely watched and widely studied by its government and the international community. One important factor that might contribute to the epidemic is China's numerous surplus of men, due to its imbalanced sex ratio in newborns. However, the sex ratio in the human population is often assumed to be 1:1 in most studies of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Here, a mathematical model is proposed to estimate the population size in each gender and within different stages of reproduction and sexual activities. This population profiling by age and gender will assist in more precise prediction of HIV incidences. The total population is divided into 6 subgroups by gender and age. A deterministic compartmental model is developed to describe birth, death, age and the interactions among different subgroups, with a focus on the preference for newborn boys and its impact for the sex ratios. Data from 2003 to 2007 is used to estimate model parameters, and simulations predict short-term and long-term population profiles. The population of China will go to a descending track around 2030. Despite the possible underestimated number of newborns in the last couple of years, model-based simulations show that there will be about 28 million male individuals in 2055 without female partners during their sexually active stages. The birth rate in China must be increased to keep the population viable. But increasing the birth rate without balancing the sex ratio in newborns is problematic, as this will generate a large number of surplus males. Besides other social, economic and psychological issues, the impact of this surplus of males on STD incidences, including HIV infections, must be dealt with as early as possible.

Genotype by production environment interaction for birth and weaning weights in a population of composite beef cattle.

PubMed

Santana, M L; Eler, J P; Bignardi, A B; Ferraz, J B S

2014-03-01

The objectives of the present study were: (1) to evaluate the importance of genotype × production environment interaction for the genetic evaluation of birth weight (BW) and weaning weight (WW) in a population of composite beef cattle in Brazil, and (2) to investigate the importance of sire × contemporary group interaction (S × CG) to model G × E and improve the accuracy of prediction in routine genetic evaluations of this population. Analyses were performed with one, two (favorable and unfavorable) or three (favorable, intermediate, unfavorable) different definitions of production environments. Thus, BW and WW records of animals in a favorable environment were assigned to either trait 1, in an intermediate environment to trait 2 or in an unfavorable environment to trait 3. The (co)variance components were estimated using Gibbs sampling in single-, bi- or three-trait animal models according to the definition of number of production environments. In general, the estimates of genetic parameters for BW and WW were similar between environments. The additive genetic correlations between production environments were close to unity for BW; however, when examining the highest posterior density intervals, the correlation between favorable and unfavorable environments reached a value of only 0.70, a fact that may lead to changes in the ranking of sires across environments. The posterior mean genetic correlation between direct effects was 0.63 in favorable and unfavorable environments for WW. When S × CG was included in two- or three-trait analyses, all direct genetic correlations were close to unity, suggesting that there was no evidence of a genotype × production environment interaction. Furthermore, the model including S × CG contributed to prevent overestimation of the accuracy of breeding values of sires, provided a lower error of prediction for both direct and maternal breeding values, lower squared bias, residual variance and deviance information criterion than the model omitting S × CG. Thus, the model that included S × CG can therefore be considered the best model on the basis of these criteria. The genotype × production environment interaction should not be neglected in the genetic evaluation of BW and WW in the present population of beef cattle. The inclusion of S × CG in the model is a feasible and plausible alternative to model the effects of G × E in the genetic evaluations.

Population dynamics of tule elk at point Reyes National Seashore, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howell, J.A.; Brooks, G.C.; Semenoff-Irving, M.; Greene, C.

2002-01-01

The presence of locally abundant wildlife raises questions about natural regulation and ecological consequences of overpopulation. We sought to establish precise information about population size, structure, and productivity to examine the role of natural regulation in a closed tule elk (Cervus elaphus nannodes) population at Point Reyes National Seashore, California, USA. We estimated an instantaneous exponential growth rate of 0.19 with an adjusted R2 = 0.98 during 1998, 20 years after the elk were introduced. We estimated annual survival for adult cows of nearly 0.95. Calf survival from birth through the rut ending during October-November was 0.85. Male calves exhibited higher mortality than female calves. Cow mortality was associated with the calving season. We measured a 42% increase in cow:calf density from 0.733 ha-1 to 1.043 ha-1 during 1996-1998. We observed a density-correlated reduction in the rate of increase and in the cow:calf ratios prior to high precipitation El Nin??o Southern Oscillation years, 1993, 1996, and 1997, precipitation >1.23 m year-1. Given the high population growth rate and model evaluation of management scenarios, park managers will need to use a suite of approaches, such as contraception and removal, to maintain the elk population at levels at or near the closed-range carrying capacity for years between El Nin??o events.

On the Problem of Structural Changes in Intellectual and Professional Potential [of the Russian Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Popova, I. P.; Temnitskii, A. L.

2012-01-01

It seems evident that the prospects of the country's development lie in a balanced model of the sectors and branches of Russia's economy, first and foremost with the creation of high-technology sectors and with higher significance attached to intellectual work and services. In terms of sociology, this task is linked closely to changes in the…

Using spatial mark-recapture for conservation monitoring of grizzly bear populations in Alberta.

PubMed

Boulanger, John; Nielsen, Scott E; Stenhouse, Gordon B

2018-03-26

One of the challenges in conservation is determining patterns and responses in population density and distribution as it relates to habitat and changes in anthropogenic activities. We applied spatially explicit capture recapture (SECR) methods, combined with density surface modelling from five grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) management areas (BMAs) in Alberta, Canada, to assess SECR methods and to explore factors influencing bear distribution. Here we used models of grizzly bear habitat and mortality risk to test local density associations using density surface modelling. Results demonstrated BMA-specific factors influenced density, as well as the effects of habitat and topography on detections and movements of bears. Estimates from SECR were similar to those from closed population models and telemetry data, but with similar or higher levels of precision. Habitat was most associated with areas of higher bear density in the north, whereas mortality risk was most associated (negatively) with density of bears in the south. Comparisons of the distribution of mortality risk and habitat revealed differences by BMA that in turn influenced local abundance of bears. Combining SECR methods with density surface modelling increases the resolution of mark-recapture methods by directly inferring the effect of spatial factors on regulating local densities of animals.

Examining the Relationship between Pre-Malignant Breast Lesions, Carcinogenesis and Tumor Evolution in the Mammary Epithelium Using an Agent-Based Model.

PubMed

Chapa, Joaquin; An, Gary; Kulkarni, Swati A

2016-01-01

Breast cancer, the product of numerous rare mutational events that occur over an extended time period, presents numerous challenges to investigators interested in studying the transformation from normal breast epithelium to malignancy using traditional laboratory methods, particularly with respect to characterizing transitional and pre-malignant states. Dynamic computational modeling can provide insight into these pathophysiological dynamics, and as such we use a previously validated agent-based computational model of the mammary epithelium (the DEABM) to investigate the probabilistic mechanisms by which normal populations of ductal cells could transform into states replicating features of both pre-malignant breast lesions and a diverse set of breast cancer subtypes. The DEABM consists of simulated cellular populations governed by algorithms based on accepted and previously published cellular mechanisms. Cells respond to hormones, undergo mitosis, apoptosis and cellular differentiation. Heritable mutations to 12 genes prominently implicated in breast cancer are acquired via a probabilistic mechanism. 3000 simulations of the 40-year period of menstrual cycling were run in wild-type (WT) and BRCA1-mutated groups. Simulations were analyzed by development of hyperplastic states, incidence of malignancy, hormone receptor and HER-2 status, frequency of mutation to particular genes, and whether mutations were early events in carcinogenesis. Cancer incidence in WT (2.6%) and BRCA1-mutated (45.9%) populations closely matched published epidemiologic rates. Hormone receptor expression profiles in both WT and BRCA groups also closely matched epidemiologic data. Hyperplastic populations carried more mutations than normal populations and mutations were similar to early mutations found in ER+ tumors (telomerase, E-cadherin, TGFB, RUNX3, p < .01). ER- tumors carried significantly more mutations and carried more early mutations in BRCA1, c-MYC and genes associated with epithelial-mesenchymal transition. The DEABM generates diverse tumors that express tumor markers consistent with epidemiologic data. The DEABM also generates non-invasive, hyperplastic populations, analogous to atypia or ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), via mutations to genes known to be present in hyperplastic lesions and as early mutations in breast cancers. The results demonstrate that agent-based models are well-suited to studying tumor evolution through stages of carcinogenesis and have the potential to be used to develop prevention and treatment strategies.

Respiratory virus transmission dynamics determine timing of asthma exacerbation peaks: Evidence from a population-level model.

PubMed

Eggo, Rosalind M; Scott, James G; Galvani, Alison P; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2016-02-23

Asthma exacerbations exhibit a consistent annual pattern, closely mirroring the school calendar. Although respiratory viruses--the "common cold" viruses--are implicated as a principal cause, there is little evidence to link viral prevalence to seasonal differences in risk. We jointly fit a common cold transmission model and a model of biological and environmental exacerbation triggers to estimate effects on hospitalization risk. Asthma hospitalization rate, influenza prevalence, and air quality measures are available, but common cold circulation is not; therefore, we generate estimates of viral prevalence using a transmission model. Our deterministic multivirus transmission model includes transmission rates that vary when school is closed. We jointly fit the two models to 7 y of daily asthma hospitalizations in adults and children (66,000 events) in eight metropolitan areas. For children, we find that daily viral prevalence is the strongest predictor of asthma hospitalizations, with transmission reduced by 45% (95% credible interval =41-49%) during school closures. We detect a transient period of nonspecific immunity between infections lasting 19 (17-21) d. For adults, hospitalizations are more variable, with influenza driving wintertime peaks. Neither particulate matter nor ozone was an important predictor, perhaps because of the large geographic area of the populations. The school calendar clearly and predictably drives seasonal variation in common cold prevalence, which results in the "back-to-school" asthma exacerbation pattern seen in children and indirectly contributes to exacerbation risk in adults. This study provides a framework for anticipating the seasonal dynamics of common colds and the associated risks for asthmatics.

Respiratory virus transmission dynamics determine timing of asthma exacerbation peaks: Evidence from a population-level model

PubMed Central

Scott, James G.; Galvani, Alison P.; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2016-01-01

Asthma exacerbations exhibit a consistent annual pattern, closely mirroring the school calendar. Although respiratory viruses—the “common cold” viruses—are implicated as a principal cause, there is little evidence to link viral prevalence to seasonal differences in risk. We jointly fit a common cold transmission model and a model of biological and environmental exacerbation triggers to estimate effects on hospitalization risk. Asthma hospitalization rate, influenza prevalence, and air quality measures are available, but common cold circulation is not; therefore, we generate estimates of viral prevalence using a transmission model. Our deterministic multivirus transmission model includes transmission rates that vary when school is closed. We jointly fit the two models to 7 y of daily asthma hospitalizations in adults and children (66,000 events) in eight metropolitan areas. For children, we find that daily viral prevalence is the strongest predictor of asthma hospitalizations, with transmission reduced by 45% (95% credible interval =41–49%) during school closures. We detect a transient period of nonspecific immunity between infections lasting 19 (17–21) d. For adults, hospitalizations are more variable, with influenza driving wintertime peaks. Neither particulate matter nor ozone was an important predictor, perhaps because of the large geographic area of the populations. The school calendar clearly and predictably drives seasonal variation in common cold prevalence, which results in the “back-to-school” asthma exacerbation pattern seen in children and indirectly contributes to exacerbation risk in adults. This study provides a framework for anticipating the seasonal dynamics of common colds and the associated risks for asthmatics. PMID:26858436

An analytical and numerical study of Galton-Watson branching processes relevant to population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, Sa-Han

Galton-Watson branching processes of relevance to human population dynamics are the subject of this thesis. We begin with an historical survey of the invention of the invention of this model in the middle of the 19th century, for the purpose of modelling the extinction of unusual surnames in France and Britain. We then review the principal developments and refinements of this model, and their applications to a wide variety of problems in biology and physics. Next, we discuss in detail the case where the probability generating function for a Galton-Watson branching process is a geometric series, which can be summed in closed form to yield a fractional linear generating function that can be iterated indefinitely in closed form. We then describe the matrix method of Keyfitz and Tyree, and use it to determine how large a matrix must be chosen to model accurately a Galton-Watson branching process for a very large number of generations, of the order of hundreds or even thousands. Finally, we show that any attempt to explain the recent evidence for the existence thousands of generations ago of a 'mitochondrial Eve' and a 'Y-chromosomal Adam' in terms of a the standard Galton-Watson branching process, or indeed any statistical model that assumes equality of probabilities of passing one's genes to one's descendents in later generations, is unlikely to be successful. We explain that such models take no account of the advantages that the descendents of the most successful individuals in earlier generations enjoy over their contemporaries, which must play a key role in human evolution.

Using spatiotemporal statistical models to estimate animal abundance and infer ecological dynamics from survey counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conn, Paul B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; London, Joshua M.; Boveng, Peter L.

2015-01-01

Ecologists often fit models to survey data to estimate and explain variation in animal abundance. Such models typically require that animal density remains constant across the landscape where sampling is being conducted, a potentially problematic assumption for animals inhabiting dynamic landscapes or otherwise exhibiting considerable spatiotemporal variation in density. We review several concepts from the burgeoning literature on spatiotemporal statistical models, including the nature of the temporal structure (i.e., descriptive or dynamical) and strategies for dimension reduction to promote computational tractability. We also review several features as they specifically relate to abundance estimation, including boundary conditions, population closure, choice of link function, and extrapolation of predicted relationships to unsampled areas. We then compare a suite of novel and existing spatiotemporal hierarchical models for animal count data that permit animal density to vary over space and time, including formulations motivated by resource selection and allowing for closed populations. We gauge the relative performance (bias, precision, computational demands) of alternative spatiotemporal models when confronted with simulated and real data sets from dynamic animal populations. For the latter, we analyze spotted seal (Phoca largha) counts from an aerial survey of the Bering Sea where the quantity and quality of suitable habitat (sea ice) changed dramatically while surveys were being conducted. Simulation analyses suggested that multiple types of spatiotemporal models provide reasonable inference (low positive bias, high precision) about animal abundance, but have potential for overestimating precision. Analysis of spotted seal data indicated that several model formulations, including those based on a log-Gaussian Cox process, had a tendency to overestimate abundance. By contrast, a model that included a population closure assumption and a scale prior on total abundance produced estimates that largely conformed to our a priori expectation. Although care must be taken to tailor models to match the study population and survey data available, we argue that hierarchical spatiotemporal statistical models represent a powerful way forward for estimating abundance and explaining variation in the distribution of dynamical populations.

Cauda equina syndrome: an analysis of incidence rates and risk factors among a closed North American military population.

PubMed

Schoenfeld, Andrew J; Bader, Julia O

2012-09-01

This investigation attempted to determine the incidence of cauda equine syndrome (CES) within a closed North American population from 2001 to 2010. This study also aimed to define risk factors influential in its development. A search was performed using the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database and the ICD-9 code for CES (344.6). Demographic information including sex, race, military rank, branch of service, and age was obtained for the entire military population, as well as those diagnosed with CES. Incidence rates were calculated for the population as a whole, as well as for risk factors of interest. Multivariate Poisson regression analysis was utilized to identify significant risks while controlling for other factors in the model. Between 2001 and 2010, the incidence of CES in the military was 7 per 100,000 person-years. Female sex was found to have the highest incidence rate at 0.15 per 1000 person-years. Female sex, whites, individuals classified as other race, senior military rank, and age 30 and older were found to be significant risks for the development of CES. The results are in keeping with the findings of previous works, however, our cohort represents the largest number of patients with CES to be presented in the literature. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Decomposition of Shared Environmental Influences on Externalizing Syndromes in the Swedish Population: A Multivariate Study.

PubMed

Ohlsson, Henrik; Kendler, Kenneth S; Lichtenstein, Paul; Sundquist, Jan; Sundquist, Kristina

2017-08-01

Using information from Swedish population registries, we attempt to decompose the shared environment (C) into four subcomponents: close family, family, household, and community. Among pairs differing in their genetic and geographical/household relationships, we examine three externalizing syndromes: drug abuse (DA), criminal behavior (CB), and alcohol use disorders (AUD). The best-fitting common pathway model suggested that total estimates for C were higher for DA (21% for males and 18% for females) than for AUD (16% and 14%) and CB (17% and 10%). Concerning syndrome-specific influences in males, close family effects were stronger for CB and AUD, while community effects were stronger for DA. The two C components in between community experiences and close family experiences (family and household) were estimated to almost entirely derive from the common latent factor. In females, among the four components of C, the community experiences were just slightly above zero, while the C components referred to as the household effect were almost zero. The total close family experiences were similar and most important across syndromes were also divided into common and specific components. For all syndromes, for both males and females, the effects of additive genetic factors were 2-4 times the size of the total effect of the shared environment. Applying standard methods to novel relationships, we expand our understanding of how the shared environment contributes to individual differences in three externalizing syndromes.

Tidal Dissipation In Rotating Low Mass Stars: Implications For The Orbital Evolution Of Close In Planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallet, Florian; Bolmont, Emeline; Mathis, Stéphane; Charbonnel, Corinne; Amard, Louis; Alibert, Yann

2017-10-01

Close-in planets represent a large fraction of the population of confirmed exoplanets. To understand the dynamical evolution of these planets, star-planet interactions must be taken into account. In particular, the dependence of the tidal interactions on the structural parameters of the star, its rotation, and its metallicity should be treated in the models. We quantify how the tidal dissipation in the convective envelope of rotating low-mass stars evolves in time. We also investigate the possible consequences of this evolution on planetary orbital evolution. In Gallet et al. (2017) and Bolmont et al. (2017) we generalized the work of Bolmont & Mathis (2016) by following the orbital evolution of close-in planets using the new tidal dissipation predictions for advanced phases of stellar evolution and non-solar metallicity. We find that during the pre-main sequence the evolution of tidal dissipation is controlled by the evolution of the internal structure of the star through the stellar contraction. On the main-sequence tidal dissipation is strongly driven by the evolution of the surface rotation that is impacted by magnetized stellar winds braking. Finally, during the more evolved phases, the tidal dissipation sharply decreases as radiative core retreats in mass and radius towards the red-giant branch. Using an orbital evolution model, we also show that changing the metallicity leads to diUerent orbital evolutions (e.g., planets migrate farther out from an initially fast rotating metal rich star). By using this model, we qualitatively reproduced the observational trends of the population of hot Jupiters with the metallicity of their host stars. However, more work still remain to be do so as to be able to quantitatively fit our results to the observations.

The influence of decadal scale climactic events on the transport of larvae.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmuson, L. K.; Edwards, C. A.; Shanks, A.

2016-02-01

Understanding the processes that influence larval transport remains an important, yet difficult, task. This is especially true as more studies demonstrate that biological and physical oceanographic processes vary at long (e.g. decadal+) time scales. We used individual based biophysical models to study transport of Dungeness crab larvae (the most economically valuable fishery on the West Coast of the Continental United States) over a 10-year period; during both positive and negative phases of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). A physical oceanographic model of the California current was developed using the Regional Ocean Modeling System with 1/30-degree resolution. Measured and modeled PDO indices were positively correlated. The biological model was implemented using the Lagrangian Transport Model, and modified to incorporate temperature dependent development and stage specific behaviors. Super individuals were used to scale production and incorporate mortality. Models were validated using time series statistics to compare measured and modeled daily recruitment. More larvae recruited, in both our measured and modeled time series, during negative PDOs. Our work suggests larvae exhibit a vertically migratory behavior too or almost too the bottom each day. During positive PDO years larvae were competent to settle earlier than negative PDO years, however, pelagic larval durations did not differ. The southern end of the population appears to be a sink population, which likely explains the decline in commercial catch. Ultimately, the population is much more demographically closed than previously thought. We hypothesize the stronger flow in the California current during negative PDO's enhances membership of larvae in the current. Further, migrating almost too the bottom causes larvae to enter the benthic boundary layer on the continental shelf and the California undercurrent on the continental slope, both, which decrease net alongshore advection. These factors result in a higher number of larvae closing their larval phase within the California current. We hypothesize Dungeness crabs have evolved to complete their larval phase within the oceanographic context of the California current and differences with the oceanography in the Alaska current may explain the difficulties in managing fisheries.

Environmental nickel exposure from oil refinery emissions: a case study in Ecuador.

PubMed

Harari, Raúl; Harari, Florencia; Forastiere, Francesco

2016-01-01

Nickel is a strong skin and respiratory sensitizer and a recognized carcinogen. Oil refineries are important sources of atmospheric emissions of toxic pollutants, including nickel. Populations residing close to oil refineries are at potential risk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the exposure to nickel in a population living close to the largest oil refinery in Ecuador, located in the city of Esmeraldas. We recruited 47 workers from the oil refinery as well as 195 students from 4 different schools close to the plant and 94 students from another school 25 km far from the industry. Urinary nickel concentrations were used to assess the exposure to nickel. Students from the school next to the oil refinery showed the highest urinary nickel concentrations while workers from the refinery showed the lowest concentrations. Median nickel concentrations were > 2µg/L in all study groups. The populations living close to the oil refineries are potentially exposed to nickel from atmospheric emissions. Further studies investigating nickel-related health effects in the population residing close to the refinery of Esmeralda are needed.

On the Diversity in Mass and Orbital Radius of Giant Planets Formed via Disk Instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Simon; Helled, Ravit; Mayer, Lucio

2018-02-01

We present a semi-analytical population synthesis model of protoplanetary clumps formed by disk instability at radial distances of 80–120 au. Various clump density profiles, initial mass functions, protoplanetary disk models, stellar masses, and gap opening criteria are considered. When we use more realistic gap opening criteria, we find that gaps open only rarely, which strongly affects clump survival rates and their physical properties (mass, radius, and radial distance). The inferred surviving population is then shifted toward less massive clumps at smaller radial distances. We also find that populations of surviving clumps are very sensitive to the model assumptions and used parameters. Depending on the chosen parameters, the protoplanets occupy a mass range between 0.01 and 16 M J and may either orbit close to the central star or as far out as 75 au, with a sweet spot at 10–30 au for the massive ones. However, in all of the cases we consider, we find that massive giant planets at very large radial distances are rare, in qualitative agreement with current direct imaging surveys. We conclude that caution should be taken in deriving population synthesis models as well as when comparing the models’ results with observations.

Oceanography and life history predict contrasting genetic population structure in two Antarctic fish species.

PubMed

Young, Emma F; Belchier, Mark; Hauser, Lorenz; Horsburgh, Gavin J; Meredith, Michael P; Murphy, Eugene J; Pascoal, Sonia; Rock, Jennifer; Tysklind, Niklas; Carvalho, Gary R

2015-06-01

Understanding the key drivers of population connectivity in the marine environment is essential for the effective management of natural resources. Although several different approaches to evaluating connectivity have been used, they are rarely integrated quantitatively. Here, we use a 'seascape genetics' approach, by combining oceanographic modelling and microsatellite analyses, to understand the dominant influences on the population genetic structure of two Antarctic fishes with contrasting life histories, Champsocephalus gunnari and Notothenia rossii. The close accord between the model projections and empirical genetic structure demonstrated that passive dispersal during the planktonic early life stages is the dominant influence on patterns and extent of genetic structuring in both species. The shorter planktonic phase of C. gunnari restricts direct transport of larvae between distant populations, leading to stronger regional differentiation. By contrast, geographic distance did not affect differentiation in N. rossii, whose longer larval period promotes long-distance dispersal. Interannual variability in oceanographic flows strongly influenced the projected genetic structure, suggesting that shifts in circulation patterns due to climate change are likely to impact future genetic connectivity and opportunities for local adaptation, resilience and recovery from perturbations. Further development of realistic climate models is required to fully assess such potential impacts.

Efficient mitigation strategies for epidemics in rural regions.

PubMed

Scoglio, Caterina; Schumm, Walter; Schumm, Phillip; Easton, Todd; Roy Chowdhury, Sohini; Sydney, Ali; Youssef, Mina

2010-07-13

Containing an epidemic at its origin is the most desirable mitigation. Epidemics have often originated in rural areas, with rural communities among the first affected. Disease dynamics in rural regions have received limited attention, and results of general studies cannot be directly applied since population densities and human mobility factors are very different in rural regions from those in cities. We create a network model of a rural community in Kansas, USA, by collecting data on the contact patterns and computing rates of contact among a sampled population. We model the impact of different mitigation strategies detecting closely connected groups of people and frequently visited locations. Within those groups and locations, we compare the effectiveness of random and targeted vaccinations using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered compartmental model on the contact network. Our simulations show that the targeted vaccinations of only 10% of the sampled population reduced the size of the epidemic by 34.5%. Additionally, if 10% of the population visiting one of the most popular locations is randomly vaccinated, the epidemic size is reduced by 19%. Our results suggest a new implementation of a highly effective strategy for targeted vaccinations through the use of popular locations in rural communities.

Islands increase genetic subdivision and disrupt patterns of connectivity of intertidal snails in a complex archipelago.

PubMed

Johnson, Michael S; Black, Robert

2006-12-01

The view that marine species with planktonic dispersal have highly connected, demographically open populations is giving way to recognition that populations may often be largely self-recruiting, or demographically closed. This raises the question of what local conditions might favor isolation of populations. To test the importance of islands for local isolation in species with planktonic larvae, we examined allozyme variation among 35 populations of the intertidal snail Austrocochlea constricta in the Houtman Abrolhos Islands, Western Australia, spanning 60 km. Heterogeneity of allozyme frequencies among populations was high, with average F(ST) of 0.237, indicating highly localized populations. Increased subdivision was associated with islands at different scales: between island groups, separated by deep water gaps, and between disconnected sets of islands within groups. At short distances, up to two km, subdivision increased fivefold between islands compared with that between populations on the same island. Along 11 km of continuous, sheltered shore, there was isolation by distance but among a linear series of islands over similar distance, there was greater subdivision at short distances but no association with distance. These patterns had been seen previously in the direct-developing snail Bembicium vittatum, but its finding in A. constricta confirms for a planktonic disperser the importance of this complex archipelago for both retention of locally produced larvae and disruption of patterns of connectivity. Taken together, these results indicate that islands can increase both the "open" and the "closed" components of recruitment and that applicable models of genetic connectivity depend substantially on local conditions.

Altitudinally divergent adult phenotypes in Iberian wall lizards are not driven by egg differences or hatchling growth rates.

PubMed

Ortega, Jesús; López, Pilar; Martín, José

2015-02-01

The interplay between ecological conditions and life histories has been widely acknowledged in vertebrates, particularly in lizards. Environmental conditions may exert different selective pressures and produce divergent phenotypes even in geographically and genetically close populations. The Iberian wall lizard constitutes a perfect model organism as it is considered a species complex with a complicated evolutionary history. Here, we focus on two proximate populations in which we examined adult morphology and reproductive investment of wild-caught lizards along a 500-m altitudinal gradient with contrasting environmental conditions, where adults show marked morphological differences in spite of being closely related. Also, we performed a common garden experiment to examine embryonic and hatchling growth. We focused on reproductive investment per clutch, incubation time, egg size, morphology and growth rate of hatchlings. Results showed clutch size differences between populations that were independent of the larger body size of highland females. However, there were no egg morphological differences between populations, except for egg width, and this difference disappeared after controlling for female body size. Hatchling lizards from both populations did not differ in morphology. Moreover, we did not observe differences between populations or sexes in hatchling growth. Overall, we provide evidence that the differences in adult body size and clutch size are not driven by size at hatching which is not contributed to by egg size, nor are intrinsic hatchling growth rates associated with the environmental conditions experienced in our common garden experiment, suggesting that adult phenotypes are not the result of intrinsic differences between populations.

Life history variation among geographically close populations of the toad-headed lizard (Phrynocephalus przewalskii): Exploring environmental and physiological associations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Zhi-Gao; Zhao, Jia-Ming; Sun, Bao-Jun

2013-08-01

Geographic variation in life history traits has been extensively studied along latitudinal and altitudinal clines, but life history variation among geographically close populations has received much less attention. We collected gravid female toad-headed lizards (Phrynocephalus przewalskii) and environmental data from three localities (Alxa Zuoqi, Alxa Youqi, and Shandan) across the Gobi desert in China, to examine among-population differences in reproductive strategies. The precipitation was significantly lower in Alxa Youqi than Alxa Zouqi and Shandan. Food availability was highest in Shandan, lowest in Alxa Zuoqi, with Alxa Youqi in between. Females from Shandan population were larger and produced more and larger eggs than their counterparts from the other two populations. Incubation period also differed among the populations, with the lowest incubation period in Alxa Youqi population, and the longest incubation period in Alxa Zuoqi population. Our data on the physiological mechanisms of incubation period indicated that the shortened incubation period in Alxa Youqi population was due to advanced embryogenesis completed prior to oviposition rather than higher embryonic heart rates during incubation. Therefore, our data support the hypothesis that geographically close populations can show different reproductive strategies if environmental factors vary among these populations.

Using demography and movement behavior to predict range expansion of the southern sea otter.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M.T.; Doak, D.F.; Estes, J.A.

2008-01-01

In addition to forecasting population growth, basic demographic data combined with movement data provide a means for predicting rates of range expansion. Quantitative models of range expansion have rarely been applied to large vertebrates, although such tools could be useful for restoration and management of many threatened but recovering populations. Using the southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) as a case study, we utilized integro-difference equations in combination with a stage-structured projection matrix that incorporated spatial variation in dispersal and demography to make forecasts of population recovery and range recolonization. In addition to these basic predictions, we emphasize how to make these modeling predictions useful in a management context through the inclusion of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Our models resulted in hind-cast (1989–2003) predictions of net population growth and range expansion that closely matched observed patterns. We next made projections of future range expansion and population growth, incorporating uncertainty in all model parameters, and explored the sensitivity of model predictions to variation in spatially explicit survival and dispersal rates. The predicted rate of southward range expansion (median = 5.2 km/yr) was sensitive to both dispersal and survival rates; elasticity analysis indicated that changes in adult survival would have the greatest potential effect on the rate of range expansion, while perturbation analysis showed that variation in subadult dispersal contributed most to variance in model predictions. Variation in survival and dispersal of females at the south end of the range contributed most of the variance in predicted southward range expansion. Our approach provides guidance for the acquisition of further data and a means of forecasting the consequence of specific management actions. Similar methods could aid in the management of other recovering populations.

Potential effects of incorporating fertility control into typical culling regimes in wild pig populations

PubMed Central

Davis, Amy J.; Cunningham, Fred L.; VerCauteren, Kurt C.; Eckery, Doug C.

2017-01-01

Effective management of widespread invasive species such as wild pigs (Sus scrofa) is limited by resources available to devote to the effort. Better insight of the effectiveness of different management strategies on population dynamics is important for guiding decisions of resource allocation over space and time. Using a dynamic population model, we quantified effects of culling intensities and time between culling events on population dynamics of wild pigs in the USA using empirical culling patterns and data-based demographic parameters. In simulated populations closed to immigration, substantial population declines (50–100%) occurred within 4 years when 20–60% of the population was culled annually, but when immigration from surrounding areas occurred, there was a maximum of 50% reduction, even with the maximum culling intensity of 60%. Incorporating hypothetical levels of fertility control with realistic culling intensities was most effective in reducing populations when they were closed to immigration and when intrinsic population growth rate was too high (> = 1.78) to be controlled by culling alone. However, substantial benefits from fertility control used in conjunction with culling may only occur over a narrow range of net population growth rates (i.e., where net is the result of intrinsic growth rates and culling) that varies depending on intrinsic population growth rate. The management implications are that the decision to use fertility control in conjunction with culling should rely on concurrent consideration of achievable culling intensity, underlying demographic parameters, and costs of culling and fertility control. The addition of fertility control reduced abundance substantially more than culling alone, however the effects of fertility control were weaker than in populations without immigration. Because these populations were not being reduced substantially by culling alone, fertility control could be an especially helpful enhancement to culling for reducing abundance to target levels in areas where immigration can’t be prevented. PMID:28837610

Emergencies planning and response: Coupling an exposure model with different atmospheric dispersion models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, E. Y.; Colman Lerner, J. E.; Porta, A.; Jacovkis, P. M.

2013-11-01

Information on spatial and time dependent concentration patterns of hazardous substances, as well as on the potential effects on population, is necessary to assist in chemical emergency planning and response. To that end, some models predict transport and dispersion of hazardous substances, and others estimate potential effects upon exposed population. Taken together, both groups constitute a powerful tool to estimate vulnerable regions and to evaluate environmental impact upon affected populations. The development of methodologies and models with direct application to the context in which we live allows us to draft a more clear representation of the risk scenario and, hence, to obtain the adequate tools for an optimal response. By means of the recently developed DDC (Damage Differential Coupling) exposure model, it was possible to optimize, from both the qualitative and the quantitative points of view, the estimation of the population affected by a toxic cloud, because the DDC model has a very good capacity to couple with different atmospheric dispersion models able to provide data over time. In this way, DDC analyzes the different concentration profiles (output from the transport model) associating them with some reference concentration to identify risk zones. In this work we present a disaster scenario in Chicago (USA), by coupling DDC with two transport models of different complexity, showing the close relationship between a representative result and the run time of the models. In the same way, it becomes evident that knowing the time evolution of the toxic cloud and of the affected regions significantly improves the probability of taking the correct decisions on planning and response facing the emergency.

An agent-based model of tsetse fly response to seasonal climatic drivers: Assessing the impact on sleeping sickness transmission rates.

PubMed

Alderton, Simon; Macleod, Ewan T; Anderson, Neil E; Palmer, Gwen; Machila, Noreen; Simuunza, Martin; Welburn, Susan C; Atkinson, Peter M

2018-02-01

This paper presents the development of an agent-based model (ABM) to incorporate climatic drivers which affect tsetse fly (G. m. morsitans) population dynamics, and ultimately disease transmission. The model was used to gain a greater understanding of how tsetse populations fluctuate seasonally, and investigate any response observed in Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) disease transmission, with a view to gaining a greater understanding of disease dynamics. Such an understanding is essential for the development of appropriate, well-targeted mitigation strategies in the future. The ABM was developed to model rHAT incidence at a fine spatial scale along a 75 km transect in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia. The model incorporates climatic factors that affect pupal mortality, pupal development, birth rate, and death rate. In combination with fine scale demographic data such as ethnicity, age and gender for the human population in the region, as well as an animal census and a sample of daily routines, we create a detailed, plausible simulation model to explore tsetse population and disease transmission dynamics. The seasonally-driven model suggests that the number of infections reported annually in the simulation is likely to be a reasonable representation of reality, taking into account the high levels of under-detection observed. Similar infection rates were observed in human (0.355 per 1000 person-years (SE = 0.013)), and cattle (0.281 per 1000 cattle-years (SE = 0.025)) populations, likely due to the sparsity of cattle close to the tsetse interface. The model suggests that immigrant tribes and school children are at greatest risk of infection, a result that derives from the bottom-up nature of the ABM and conditioning on multiple constraints. This result could not be inferred using alternative population-level modelling approaches. In producing a model which models the tsetse population at a very fine resolution, we were able to analyse and evaluate specific elements of the output, such as pupal development and the progression of the teneral population, allowing the development of our understanding of the tsetse population as a whole. This is an important step in the production of a more accurate transmission model for rHAT which can, in turn, help us to gain a greater understanding of the transmission system as a whole.

Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Modeling of Interstrain Variability in Trichloroethylene Metabolism in the Mouse

PubMed Central

Campbell, Jerry L.; Clewell, Harvey J.; Zhou, Yi-Hui; Wright, Fred A.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.

2014-01-01

Background: Quantitative estimation of toxicokinetic variability in the human population is a persistent challenge in risk assessment of environmental chemicals. Traditionally, interindividual differences in the population are accounted for by default assumptions or, in rare cases, are based on human toxicokinetic data. Objectives: We evaluated the utility of genetically diverse mouse strains for estimating toxicokinetic population variability for risk assessment, using trichloroethylene (TCE) metabolism as a case study. Methods: We used data on oxidative and glutathione conjugation metabolism of TCE in 16 inbred and 1 hybrid mouse strains to calibrate and extend existing physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. We added one-compartment models for glutathione metabolites and a two-compartment model for dichloroacetic acid (DCA). We used a Bayesian population analysis of interstrain variability to quantify variability in TCE metabolism. Results: Concentration–time profiles for TCE metabolism to oxidative and glutathione conjugation metabolites varied across strains. Median predictions for the metabolic flux through oxidation were less variable (5-fold range) than that through glutathione conjugation (10-fold range). For oxidative metabolites, median predictions of trichloroacetic acid production were less variable (2-fold range) than DCA production (5-fold range), although the uncertainty bounds for DCA exceeded the predicted variability. Conclusions: Population PBPK modeling of genetically diverse mouse strains can provide useful quantitative estimates of toxicokinetic population variability. When extrapolated to lower doses more relevant to environmental exposures, mouse population-derived variability estimates for TCE metabolism closely matched population variability estimates previously derived from human toxicokinetic studies with TCE, highlighting the utility of mouse interstrain metabolism studies for addressing toxicokinetic variability. Citation: Chiu WA, Campbell JL Jr, Clewell HJ III, Zhou YH, Wright FA, Guyton KZ, Rusyn I. 2014. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling of interstrain variability in trichloroethylene metabolism in the mouse. Environ Health Perspect 122:456–463; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307623 PMID:24518055

Simulation of MAD Cow Disease Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magdoń-Maksymowicz, M. S.; Maksymowicz, A. Z.; Gołdasz, J.

Computer simulation of dynamic of BSE disease is presented. Both vertical (to baby) and horizontal (to neighbor) mechanisms of the disease spread are considered. The game takes place on a two-dimensional square lattice Nx×Ny = 1000×1000 with initial population randomly distributed on the net. The disease may be introduced either with the initial population or by a spontaneous development of BSE in an item, at a small frequency. Main results show a critical probability of the BSE transmission above which the disease is present in the population. This value is vulnerable to possible spatial clustering of the population and it also depends on the mechanism responsible for the disease onset, evolution and propagation. A threshold birth rate below which the population is extinct is seen. Above this threshold the population is disease free at equilibrium until another birth rate value is reached when the disease is present in population. For typical model parameters used for the simulation, which may correspond to the mad cow disease, we are close to the BSE-free case.

Genomic resources for wild populations of the house mouse, Mus musculus and its close relative Mus spretus

PubMed Central

Harr, Bettina; Karakoc, Emre; Neme, Rafik; Teschke, Meike; Pfeifle, Christine; Pezer, Željka; Babiker, Hiba; Linnenbrink, Miriam; Montero, Inka; Scavetta, Rick; Abai, Mohammad Reza; Molins, Marta Puente; Schlegel, Mathias; Ulrich, Rainer G.; Altmüller, Janine; Franitza, Marek; Büntge, Anna; Künzel, Sven; Tautz, Diethard

2016-01-01

Wild populations of the house mouse (Mus musculus) represent the raw genetic material for the classical inbred strains in biomedical research and are a major model system for evolutionary biology. We provide whole genome sequencing data of individuals representing natural populations of M. m. domesticus (24 individuals from 3 populations), M. m. helgolandicus (3 individuals), M. m. musculus (22 individuals from 3 populations) and M. spretus (8 individuals from one population). We use a single pipeline to map and call variants for these individuals and also include 10 additional individuals of M. m. castaneus for which genomic data are publically available. In addition, RNAseq data were obtained from 10 tissues of up to eight adult individuals from each of the three M. m. domesticus populations for which genomic data were collected. Data and analyses are presented via tracks viewable in the UCSC or IGV genome browsers. We also provide information on available outbred stocks and instructions on how to keep them in the laboratory. PMID:27622383

Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) in Hong Kong: Modelling demographic parameters with mark-recapture techniques.

PubMed

Chan, Stephen C Y; Karczmarski, Leszek

2017-01-01

Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) inhabiting Hong Kong waters are thought to be among the world's most anthropogenically impacted coastal delphinids. We have conducted a 5-year (2010-2014) photo-ID study and performed the first in this region comprehensive mark-recapture analysis applying a suite of open population models and robust design models. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models suggested a significant transient effect and seasonal variation in apparent survival probabilities as result of a fluid movement beyond the study area. Given the spatial restrictions of our study, limited by an administrative border, if emigration was to be considered negligible the estimated survival rate of adults was 0.980. Super-population estimates indicated that at least 368 dolphins used Hong Kong waters as part of their range. Closed robust design models suggested an influx of dolphins from winter to summer and increased site fidelity in summer; and outflux, although less prominent, during summer-winter intervals. Abundance estimates in summer (N = 144-231) were higher than that in winter (N = 87-111), corresponding to the availability of prey resources which in Hong Kong waters peaks during summer months. We point out that the current population monitoring strategy used by the Hong Kong authorities is ill-suited for a timely detection of a population change and should be revised.

Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) in Hong Kong: Modelling demographic parameters with mark-recapture techniques

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) inhabiting Hong Kong waters are thought to be among the world's most anthropogenically impacted coastal delphinids. We have conducted a 5-year (2010–2014) photo-ID study and performed the first in this region comprehensive mark-recapture analysis applying a suite of open population models and robust design models. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models suggested a significant transient effect and seasonal variation in apparent survival probabilities as result of a fluid movement beyond the study area. Given the spatial restrictions of our study, limited by an administrative border, if emigration was to be considered negligible the estimated survival rate of adults was 0.980. Super-population estimates indicated that at least 368 dolphins used Hong Kong waters as part of their range. Closed robust design models suggested an influx of dolphins from winter to summer and increased site fidelity in summer; and outflux, although less prominent, during summer-winter intervals. Abundance estimates in summer (N = 144–231) were higher than that in winter (N = 87–111), corresponding to the availability of prey resources which in Hong Kong waters peaks during summer months. We point out that the current population monitoring strategy used by the Hong Kong authorities is ill-suited for a timely detection of a population change and should be revised. PMID:28355228

Symmetry breaking in two interacting populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Ratas, Irmantas; Pyragas, Kestutis

2017-10-01

We analyze the dynamics of two coupled identical populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons, which represent the canonical model for class I neurons near the spiking threshold. The populations are heterogeneous; they include both inherently spiking and excitable neurons. The coupling within and between the populations is global via synapses that take into account the finite width of synaptic pulses. Using a recently developed reduction method based on the Lorentzian ansatz, we derive a closed system of equations for the neuron's firing rates and the mean membrane potentials in both populations. The reduced equations are exact in the infinite-size limit. The bifurcation analysis of the equations reveals a rich variety of nonsymmetric patterns, including a splay state, antiphase periodic oscillations, chimera-like states, and chaotic oscillations as well as bistabilities between various states. The validity of the reduced equations is confirmed by direct numerical simulations of the finite-size networks.

Symmetry breaking in two interacting populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratas, Irmantas; Pyragas, Kestutis

2017-10-01

We analyze the dynamics of two coupled identical populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons, which represent the canonical model for class I neurons near the spiking threshold. The populations are heterogeneous; they include both inherently spiking and excitable neurons. The coupling within and between the populations is global via synapses that take into account the finite width of synaptic pulses. Using a recently developed reduction method based on the Lorentzian ansatz, we derive a closed system of equations for the neuron's firing rates and the mean membrane potentials in both populations. The reduced equations are exact in the infinite-size limit. The bifurcation analysis of the equations reveals a rich variety of nonsymmetric patterns, including a splay state, antiphase periodic oscillations, chimera-like states, and chaotic oscillations as well as bistabilities between various states. The validity of the reduced equations is confirmed by direct numerical simulations of the finite-size networks.

Parasites contribute to ecologically dependent postmating isolation in the adaptive radiation of three-spined stickleback.

PubMed

El Nagar, Aliya; MacColl, Andrew D C

2016-08-17

Spatial variation in parasitic infections is common, and has the potential to drive population divergence and the reproductive isolation of hosts. However, despite support from theory and model laboratory systems, little strong evidence has been forthcoming from the wild. Here, we show that parasites are likely to cause reproductive isolation in the adaptive radiation of three-spined stickleback. Adjacent wild populations on the Scottish island of North Uist differ greatly and consistently in the occurrence of different parasites that have substantial effects on fitness. Laboratory-reared fish are more resistant to experimental infection by parasite species from their own population. Furthermore, hybrid backcrosses between the host populations are more resistant to parasites from the parental population to which they are more closely related. These patterns provide strong evidence that parasites can cause ecological speciation, by contributing to selection against migrants and ecologically dependent postmating isolation. © 2016 The Author(s).

Assessing the groundwater salinization in closed hydrologic basins due to overdraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Z.; Pauloo, R.; Fogg, G. E.

2016-12-01

Population growth and the expansion of agriculture, coupled with climate uncertainties, have accelerated groundwater pumping and overdraft in alluvial aquifers worldwide. In many agricultural basins, the low rate of replenishment is far exceeded by the rate of groundwater pumping in overdrafted aquifers, which results in the substantial water table declines and in effect contributes to the formation of a "closed" basin. In fact, even modest amounts of groundwater system drawdown that do not produce what is construed as overdraft, can result in most of the groundwater discharge occurring as evapotranspiration via irrigation practices, converting the basin to a closed groundwater basin. Moreover, in past decades, extreme weather conditions (i.e., severe drought in California for the past five years) have resulted in substantially reduced surface water storage. This increases demand for groundwater to supplement low surface water supplies, and consequently, drives groundwater overdraft, and hence, groundwater salinization. In these newly closed basins, just as in other naturally closed basins such as Death Valley and the Great Salt Lake, groundwater salinity must increase not only due to evaporation, but also due to rock water interactions in the groundwater system, and lack of a natural outlet for the groundwater. In this study, the water balance and salt balance in closed basins of the Central Valley, California are computed. Groundwater degradation under the current overdraft conditions is further investigated using simple models that are developed by upscaling more complex and heterogeneous transport models. The focus of this study is to determine the applicability of these simple models to represent regional transport without explicitly including the large-scale heterogeneity inherent in the more complex models. Groundwater salinization processes, including salt accumulation caused by evapotranspiration of applied irrigation water and rock-groundwater interactions are simulated, and the time scales under which groundwater salinity may pose a threat to societies is estimated. Lastly, and most importantly, management strategies to mitigate groundwater salinization are examined.

Demographic Characteristics of a Maine Woodcock Population and Effects of Habitat Management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dwyer, T.J.; Sepik, G.F.; Derleth, E.L.; McAuley, D.G.

1988-01-01

A population of American woodcock (Scolopax minor) was studied on a 3,401-ha area of the Moosehorn National Wildlife Refuge in northeastern Maine from 1976 through 1985. During 1976-83, from 4 to 64 clearcuts were created each year, opening up large contiguous blocks of forest. A combination of mist nets, ground traps, nightlighting techniques, and trained dogs were used to capture and band 1,884 birds during the first 5 years. Capture and recapture data (totaling 3,009 observations) were used with both demographically closed and open population models to estimate population size and, for open population models, summer survival. Flying young, especially young males, represented the greatest proportion of all captures; analysis showed that young males were more prone to capture than young females. Male courtship began about 24 March each year, usually when there was still snow in wooded areas. Males ~2 years old dominated singing grounds during April each year, but this situation changed and first-year males dominated singing grounds in May. Singing males shifted from older established singing grounds to new clearcuts soon after we initiated forest management. Many males were subdominant at singing grounds despite an abundance of unoccupied openings. Three hundred adult females were captured and, except for 1978, the majority were ~2 years old. The year in which female homing rate was lowest(1979) was preceded by the year with the largest number of l-year-old brood female captures and a summer drought. Summer survival of young was lowest in 1978 and was attributed to summer drought. The year 1979 had an abnormally cool and wet spring, and was the poorest for production of young. Capture ratios of young-to-adult females obtained by nightlighting could be used to predict production on our study area. Closed population model estimates did not seem to fit either young or adult data sets well. Instead, a partially open capture-recapture model that allowed death but no immigration seemed to fit best. Only the number of males in the population changed significantly during the study. An increase from 88 males in 1976 to 156 in 1980 was attributed to habitat management. Singingmale surveys on our area detected little change in the number of singing males, but our independent population estimates from mark-recapture data showed a larger total male population by 1980. Annual density estimates for all age and sex classes ranged from 19 to 25 birds/l00 ha. A hypothesis on the breeding system of the American woodcock is presented as well as a discussion of management implications, including the importance of creating high-quality habitat on private lands.

A Mathematical Model Of Dengue-Chikungunya Co-Infection In A Closed Population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldila, Dipo; Ria Agustin, Maya

2018-03-01

Dengue disease has been a major health problem in many tropical and sub-tropical countries since the early 1900s. On the other hand, according to a 2017 WHO fact sheet, Chikungunya was detected in the first outbreak in 1952 in Tanzania and has continued increasing until now in many tropical and sub-tropical countries. Both these diseases are vector-borne diseases which are spread by the same mosquito, i.e. the female Aedes aegypti. According to the WHO report, there is a great possibility that humans and mosquitos might be infected by dengue and chikungunya at the same time. Here in this article, a mathematical model approach will be used to understand the spread of dengue and chikungunya in a closed population. A model is developed as a nine-dimensional deterministic ordinary differential equation. Equilibrium points and their local stability are analyzed analytically and numerically. We find that the basic reproduction number, the endemic indicator, is given by the maximum of three different basic reproduction numbers of a complete system, i.e. basic reproduction numbers for dengue, chikungunya and for co-infection between dengue and chikungunya. We find that the basic reproduction number for the co-infection sub-system dominates other basic reproduction numbers whenever it is larger than one. Some numerical simulations are provided to confirm these analytical results.

Testing Feedback Models with Nearby Star Forming Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doran, E.; Crowther, P.

2012-12-01

The feedback from massive stars plays a crucial role in the evolution of galaxies. Accurate modelling of this feedback is essential in understanding distant star forming regions. Young nearby, high mass (> 104 M⊙) clusters such as R136 (in the 30 Doradus region) are ideal test beds for population synthesis since they host large numbers of spatially resolved massive stars at a pre-supernovae stage. We present a quantitative comparison of empirical calibrations of radiative and mechanical feedback from individual stars in R136, with instantaneous burst predictions from the popular Starburst99 evolution synthesis code. We find that empirical results exceed predictions by factors of ˜3-9, as a result of limiting simulations to an upper limit of 100 M⊙. 100-300 M⊙ stars should to be incorporated in population synthesis models for high mass clusters to bring predictions into close agreement with empirical results.

Framework for analyzing ecological trait-based models in multidimensional niche spaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biancalani, Tommaso; DeVille, Lee; Goldenfeld, Nigel

2015-05-01

We develop a theoretical framework for analyzing ecological models with a multidimensional niche space. Our approach relies on the fact that ecological niches are described by sequences of symbols, which allows us to include multiple phenotypic traits. Ecological drivers, such as competitive exclusion, are modeled by introducing the Hamming distance between two sequences. We show that a suitable transform diagonalizes the community interaction matrix of these models, making it possible to predict the conditions for niche differentiation and, close to the instability onset, the asymptotically long time population distributions of niches. We exemplify our method using the Lotka-Volterra equations with an exponential competition kernel.

Discrete-time moment closure models for epidemic spreading in populations of interacting individuals.

PubMed

Frasca, Mattia; Sharkey, Kieran J

2016-06-21

Understanding the dynamics of spread of infectious diseases between individuals is essential for forecasting the evolution of an epidemic outbreak or for defining intervention policies. The problem is addressed by many approaches including stochastic and deterministic models formulated at diverse scales (individuals, populations) and different levels of detail. Here we consider discrete-time SIR (susceptible-infectious-removed) dynamics propagated on contact networks. We derive a novel set of 'discrete-time moment equations' for the probability of the system states at the level of individual nodes and pairs of nodes. These equations form a set which we close by introducing appropriate approximations of the joint probabilities appearing in them. For the example case of SIR processes, we formulate two types of model, one assuming statistical independence at the level of individuals and one at the level of pairs. From the pair-based model we then derive a model at the level of the population which captures the behavior of epidemics on homogeneous random networks. With respect to their continuous-time counterparts, the models include a larger number of possible transitions from one state to another and joint probabilities with a larger number of individuals. The approach is validated through numerical simulation over different network topologies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Density estimation in a wolverine population using spatial capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Magoun, Audrey J.; Gardner, Beth; Valkenbury, Patrick; Lowell, Richard E.; McKelvey, Kevin

2011-01-01

Classical closed-population capture-recapture models do not accommodate the spatial information inherent in encounter history data obtained from camera-trapping studies. As a result, individual heterogeneity in encounter probability is induced, and it is not possible to estimate density objectively because trap arrays do not have a well-defined sample area. We applied newly-developed, capture-recapture models that accommodate the spatial attribute inherent in capture-recapture data to a population of wolverines (Gulo gulo) in Southeast Alaska in 2008. We used camera-trapping data collected from 37 cameras in a 2,140-km2 area of forested and open habitats largely enclosed by ocean and glacial icefields. We detected 21 unique individuals 115 times. Wolverines exhibited a strong positive trap response, with an increased tendency to revisit previously visited traps. Under the trap-response model, we estimated wolverine density at 9.7 individuals/1,000-km2(95% Bayesian CI: 5.9-15.0). Our model provides a formal statistical framework for estimating density from wolverine camera-trapping studies that accounts for a behavioral response due to baited traps. Further, our model-based estimator does not have strict requirements about the spatial configuration of traps or length of trapping sessions, providing considerable operational flexibility in the development of field studies.

The FRAME Project - A collaborative modeling approach to natural resource management at Mesa Verde National Park

Treesearch

Christine E. Turner; William H. Romme; Jim Chew; Mark E. Miller; Lisa Floyd-Hanna Leavesley; George San Miguel; Neil Cobb; Richard Zirbes; Roland Viger; Kirsten Ironside

2008-01-01

The rapid pace of social and environmental changes over the past few decades has presented significant challenges for the people who manage our public lands. Demographic shifts have placed large populations in close proximity to public lands and have resulted in increased public scrutiny of decision making on those lands. Natural resource managers are required to make...

Leveraging public health's participation in a Health Information Exchange to improve communicable disease reporting.

PubMed

Painter, Ian; Revere, Debra; Gibson, P Joseph; Baseman, Janet

2017-01-01

Infectious diseases can appear and spread rapidly. Timely information about disease patterns and trends allows public health agencies to quickly investigate and efficiently contain those diseases. But disease case reporting to public health has traditionally been paper-based, resulting in somewhat slow, burdensome processes. Fortunately, the expanding use of electronic health records and health information exchanges has created opportunities for more rapid, complete, and easily managed case reporting and investigation. To assess how this new service might impact the efficiency and quality of a public health agency's case investigations, we compared the timeliness of usual case investigation to that of case investigations based on case report forms that were partially pre-populated with electronic data. Between September 2013-March 2014, chlamydia disease report forms for certain clinics in Indianapolis were electronically pre-populated with clinical, lab and patient data available through the Indiana Health Information Exchange, then provided to the patient’s doctor. Doctors could then sign the form and deliver it to public health for investigation and population-level disease tracking. Methods: We utilized a novel matched case analysis of timeliness changes in receipt and processing of communicable disease report forms. Each Chlamydia cases reported with the pre-populated form were matched to cases reported in usual ways. We assessed the time from receipt of the case at the public health agency: 1) inclusion of the case into the public health surveillance system and 2) to close to case. A hierarchical random effects model was used to compare mean difference in each outcome between the target cases and the matched cases, with random intercepts for case. Twenty-one Chlamydia cases were reported to the public health agency using the pre-populated form. Sixteen of these pre-populated form cases were matched to at least one other case, with a mean of 23 matches per case. The mean Reporting Lag for the pre-populated form cases was 2.5 days, which was 2.7 days shorter than the mean Reporting Lag for the matched controls (p = <0.001). The mean time to close a pre-populated form case was 4.7 days, which was 0.2 days shorter than time to close for the matched controls (p = 0.792). Use of pre-populated forms significantly decreased the time it took for the local public health agency to begin documenting and closing chlamydia case investigations. Thoughtful use of electronic health data for case reporting may decrease the per-case workload of public health agencies, and improve the timeliness of information about the pattern and spread of disease.

Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the Lee-Carter method

PubMed Central

Li, Nan; Lee, Ronald

2005-01-01

Mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely to be similar in some respects, and differences are unlikely to increase in the long run. It should therefore be possible to improve the mortality forecasts for individual countries by taking into account the patterns in a larger group. Using the Human Mortality Database, we apply the Lee-Carter model to a group of populations, allowing each its own age pattern and level of mortality but imposing shared rates of change by age. Our forecasts also allow divergent patterns to continue for a while before tapering off. We forecast greater longevity gains for the US and lesser ones for Japan relative to separate forecasts. PMID:16235614

Evidence for close side-chain packing in an early protein folding intermediate previously assumed to be a molten globule

PubMed Central

Rosen, Laura E.; Connell, Katelyn B.; Marqusee, Susan

2014-01-01

The molten globule, a conformational ensemble with significant secondary structure but only loosely packed tertiary structure, has been suggested to be a ubiquitous intermediate in protein folding. However, it is difficult to assess the tertiary packing of transiently populated species to evaluate this hypothesis. Escherichia coli RNase H is known to populate an intermediate before the rate-limiting barrier to folding that has long been thought to be a molten globule. We investigated this hypothesis by making mimics of the intermediate that are the ground-state conformation at equilibrium, using two approaches: a truncation to generate a fragment mimic of the intermediate, and selective destabilization of the native state using point mutations. Spectroscopic characterization and the response of the mimics to further mutation are consistent with studies on the transient kinetic intermediate, indicating that they model the early intermediate. Both mimics fold cooperatively and exhibit NMR spectra indicative of a closely packed conformation, in contrast to the hypothesis of molten tertiary packing. This result is important for understanding the nature of the subsequent rate-limiting barrier to folding and has implications for the assumption that many other proteins populate molten globule folding intermediates. PMID:25258414

Evidence for close side-chain packing in an early protein folding intermediate previously assumed to be a molten globule.

PubMed

Rosen, Laura E; Connell, Katelyn B; Marqusee, Susan

2014-10-14

The molten globule, a conformational ensemble with significant secondary structure but only loosely packed tertiary structure, has been suggested to be a ubiquitous intermediate in protein folding. However, it is difficult to assess the tertiary packing of transiently populated species to evaluate this hypothesis. Escherichia coli RNase H is known to populate an intermediate before the rate-limiting barrier to folding that has long been thought to be a molten globule. We investigated this hypothesis by making mimics of the intermediate that are the ground-state conformation at equilibrium, using two approaches: a truncation to generate a fragment mimic of the intermediate, and selective destabilization of the native state using point mutations. Spectroscopic characterization and the response of the mimics to further mutation are consistent with studies on the transient kinetic intermediate, indicating that they model the early intermediate. Both mimics fold cooperatively and exhibit NMR spectra indicative of a closely packed conformation, in contrast to the hypothesis of molten tertiary packing. This result is important for understanding the nature of the subsequent rate-limiting barrier to folding and has implications for the assumption that many other proteins populate molten globule folding intermediates.

The incidence of stellar mergers and mass gainers among massive stars

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Mink, S. E.; Sana, H.; Langer, N.

2014-02-10

Because the majority of massive stars are born as members of close binary systems, populations of massive main-sequence stars contain stellar mergers and products of binary mass transfer. We simulate populations of massive stars accounting for all major binary evolution effects based on the most recent binary parameter statistics and extensively evaluate the effect of model uncertainties. Assuming constant star formation, we find that 8{sub −4}{sup +9}% of a sample of early-type stars are the products of a merger resulting from a close binary system. In total we find that 30{sub −15}{sup +10}% of massive main-sequence stars are the productsmore » of binary interaction. We show that the commonly adopted approach to minimize the effects of binaries on an observed sample by excluding systems detected as binaries through radial velocity campaigns can be counterproductive. Systems with significant radial velocity variations are mostly pre-interaction systems. Excluding them substantially enhances the relative incidence of mergers and binary products in the non-radial velocity variable sample. This poses a challenge for testing single stellar evolutionary models. It also raises the question of whether certain peculiar classes of stars, such as magnetic O stars, are the result of binary interaction and it emphasizes the need to further study the effect of binarity on the diagnostics that are used to derive the fundamental properties (star-formation history, initial mass function, mass-to-light ratio) of stellar populations nearby and at high redshift.« less

Numerical detection, measuring and analysis of differential interferon resistance for individual HCV intra-host variants and its influence on the therapy response.

PubMed

Skums, Pavel; Campo, David S; Dimitrova, Zoya; Vaughan, Gilberto; Lau, Daryl T; Khudyakov, Yury

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of liver disease world-wide. Current interferon and ribavirin (IFN/RBV) therapy is effective in 50%-60% of patients. HCV exists in infected patients as a large viral population of intra-host variants (quasispecies), which may be differentially resistant to interferon treatment. We present a method for measuring differential interferon resistance of HCV quasispecies based on mathematical modeling and analysis of HCV population dynamics during the first hours of interferon therapy. The mathematical models showed that individual intra-host HCV variants have a wide range of resistance to IFN treatment in each patient. Analysis of differential IFN resistance among intra-host HCV variants allows for accurate prediction of response to IFN therapy. The models strongly suggest that resistance to interferon may vary broadly among closely related variants in infected hosts and therapy outcome may be defined by a single or a few variants irrespective of their frequency in the intra-host HCV population before treatment.

Nonlinear Fano interferences in open quantum systems: An exactly solvable model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finkelstein-Shapiro, Daniel; Calatayud, Monica; Atabek, Osman; Mujica, Vladimiro; Keller, Arne

2016-06-01

We obtain an explicit solution for the stationary-state populations of a dissipative Fano model, where a discrete excited state is coupled to a continuum set of states; both excited sets of states are reachable by photoexcitation from the ground state. The dissipative dynamic is described by a Liouville equation in Lindblad form and the field intensity can take arbitrary values within the model. We show that the population of the continuum states as a function of laser frequency can always be expressed as a Fano profile plus a Lorentzian function with effective parameters whose explicit expressions are given in the case of a closed system coupled to a bath as well as for the original Fano scattering framework. Although the solution is intricate, it can be elegantly expressed as a linear transformation of the kernel of a 4 ×4 matrix which has the meaning of an effective Liouvillian. We unveil key notable processes related to the optical nonlinearity and which had not been reported to date: electromagnetic-induced transparency, population inversions, power narrowing and broadening, as well as an effective reduction of the Fano asymmetry parameter.

Heterogeneous population dynamics and scaling laws near epidemic outbreaks.

PubMed

Widder, Andreas; Kuehn, Christian

2016-10-01

In this paper, we focus on the influence of heterogeneity and stochasticity of the population on the dynamical structure of a basic susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model. First we prove that, upon a suitable mathematical reformulation of the basic reproduction number, the homogeneous system and the heterogeneous system exhibit a completely analogous global behaviour. Then we consider noise terms to incorporate the fluctuation effects and the random import of the disease into the population and analyse the influence of heterogeneity on warning signs for critical transitions (or tipping points). This theory shows that one may be able to anticipate whether a bifurcation point is close before it happens. We use numerical simulations of a stochastic fast-slow heterogeneous population SIS model and show various aspects of heterogeneity have crucial influences on the scaling laws that are used as early-warning signs for the homogeneous system. Thus, although the basic structural qualitative dynamical properties are the same for both systems, the quantitative features for epidemic prediction are expected to change and care has to be taken to interpret potential warning signs for disease outbreaks correctly.

Influences of spawning timing, water temperature, and climatic warming on early life history phenology in western Alaska sockeye salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sparks, Morgan M.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Quinn, Thomas P.; Adkison, Milo D.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Bartz, Krista K.; Young, Daniel B.; Westley, Peter A. H.

2018-01-01

We applied an empirical model to predict hatching and emergence timing for 25 western Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in four lake-nursery systems to explore current patterns and potential responses of early life history phenology to warming water temperatures. Given experienced temperature regimes during development, we predicted hatching to occur in as few as 58 d to as many as 260 d depending on spawning timing and temperature. For a focal lake spawning population, our climate-lake temperature model predicted a water temperature increase of 0.7 to 1.4 °C from 2015 to 2099 during the incubation period, which translated to a 16 d to 30 d earlier hatching timing. The most extreme scenarios of warming advanced development by approximately a week earlier than historical minima and thus climatic warming may lead to only modest shifts in phenology during the early life history stage of this population. The marked variation in the predicted timing of hatching and emergence among populations in close proximity on the landscape may serve to buffer this metapopulation from climate change.

Observations on Neotricula aperta (Gastropoda: Pomatiopsidae) population densities in Thailand and central Laos: implications for the spread of Mekong schistosomiasis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The snail Neotricula aperta transmits Mekong schistosomiasis in southern Laos and Cambodia, with about 1.5 million people at risk of infection. Plans are under consideration for at least 12 hydroelectric power dams on the lower Mekong river and much controversy surrounds predictions of their environmental impacts. Unfortunately, there are almost no ecological data (such as long term population trend studies) available for N. aperta which could be used in impact assessment. Predictions currently assume that the impacts will be the same as those observed in Africa (i.e., a worsening of the schistosomiasis problem); however, marked ecological differences between the snails involved suggest that region specific models are required. The present study was performed as an initial step in providing data, which could be useful in the planning of water resource development in the Mekong. Snail population density records were analyzed for populations close to, and far downstream of, the Nam Theun 2 (NT2) project in Laos in order to detect any changes that might be attributable to impoundment. Results The population immediately downstream of NT2 and that sampled 400 km downstream in Thailand both showed a long term trend of slow growth from 1992 to 2005; however, both populations showed a marked decline in density between 2005 and 2011. The decline in Thailand was to a value significantly lower than that predicted by a linear mixed model for the data, whilst the population density close to NT2 fell to undetectable levels in 2011 from densities of over 5000 m-2 in 2005. The NT2 dam began operation in 2010. Conclusions The impact of the NT2 dam on N. aperta population density could be more complex than first thought and may reflect the strict ecological requirements of this snail. There was no indication that responses of N. aperta populations to dam construction are similar to those observed with Bulinus and Schistosoma haematobium in Africa, for example. In view of the present findings, more ecological data (in particular population density monitoring and surveillance for new habitats) are urgently required in order to understand properly the likely impacts of water resource development on Mekong schistosomiasis. PMID:22720904

Affected sib pair tests in inbred populations.

PubMed

Liu, W; Weir, B S

2004-11-01

The affected-sib-pair (ASP) method for detecting linkage between a disease locus and marker loci was first established 50 years ago, and since then numerous modifications have been made. We modify two identity-by-state (IBS) test statistics of Lange (Lange, 1986a, 1986b) to allow for inbreeding in the population. We evaluate the power and false positive rates of the modified tests under three disease models, using simulated data. Before estimating false positive rates, we demonstrate that IBS tests are tests of both linkage and linkage disequilibrium between marker and disease loci. Therefore, the null hypothesis of IBS tests should be no linkage and no LD. When the population inbreeding coefficient is large, the false positive rates of Lange's tests become much larger than the nominal value, while those of our modified tests remain close to the nominal value. To estimate power with a controlled false positive rate, we choose the cutoff values based on simulated datasets under the null hypothesis, so that both Lange's tests and the modified tests generate same false positive rate. The powers of Lange's z-test and our modified z-test are very close and do not change much with increasing inbreeding. The power of the modified chi-square test also stays stable when the inbreeding coefficient increases. However, the power of Lange's chi-square test increases with increasing inbreeding, and is larger than that of our modified chi-square test for large inbreeding coefficients. The power is high under a recessive disease model for both Lange's tests and the modified tests, though the power is low for additive and dominant disease models. Allowing for inbreeding is therefore appropriate, at least for diseases known to be recessive.

Molecular Markers Reveal Limited Population Genetic Structure in a North American Corvid, Clark’s Nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana)

PubMed Central

Dohms, Kimberly M.; Burg, Theresa M.

2013-01-01

The genetic impact of barriers and Pleistocene glaciations on high latitude resident species has not been widely investigated. The Clark’s nutcracker is an endemic North American corvid closely associated with Pinus-dominated forests. The nutcracker’s encompasses known barriers to dispersal for other species, and glaciated and unglaciated areas. Clark’s nutcrackers also irruptively disperse long distances in search of pine seed crops, creating the potential for gene flow among populations. Using the highly variable mitochondrial DNA control region, seven microsatellite loci, and species distribution modeling, we examined the effects of glaciations and dispersal barriers on population genetic patterns and population structure of nutcrackers. We sequenced 900 bp of mitochondrial control region for 169 individuals from 15 populations and analysed seven polymorphic microsatellite loci for 13 populations across the Clark’s nutcracker range. We used species distribution modeling and a range of phylogeographic analyses to examine evolutionary history. Clark’s nutcracker populations are not highly differentiated throughout their range, suggesting high levels of gene flow among populations, though we did find some evidence of isolation by distance and peripheral isolation. Our analyses suggested expansion from a single refugium after the last glacial maximum, but patterns of genetic diversity and paleodistribution modeling of suitable habitat were inconclusive as to the location of this refugium. Potential barriers to dispersal (e.g. mountain ranges) do not appear to restrict gene flow in Clark’s nutcracker, and postglacial expansion likely occurred quickly from a single refugium located south of the ice sheets. PMID:24223982

Transition paths of Met-enkephalin from Markov state modeling of a molecular dynamics trajectory.

PubMed

Banerjee, Rahul; Cukier, Robert I

2014-03-20

Conformational states and their interconversion pathways of the zwitterionic form of the pentapeptide Met-enkephalin (MetEnk) are identified. An explicit solvent molecular dynamics (MD) trajectory is used to construct a Markov state model (MSM) based on dihedral space clustering of the trajectory, and transition path theory (TPT) is applied to identify pathways between open and closed conformers. In the MD trajectory, only four of the eight backbone dihedrals exhibit bistable behavior. Defining a conformer as the string XXXX with X = "+" or "-" denoting, respectively, positive or negative values of a given dihedral angle and obtaining the populations of these conformers shows that only four conformers are highly populated, implying a strong correlation among these dihedrals. Clustering in dihedral space to construct the MSM finds the same four bistable dihedral angles. These state populations are very similar to those found directly from the MD trajectory. TPT is used to obtain pathways, parametrized by committor values, in dihedral state space that are followed in transitioning from closed to open states. Pathway costs are estimated by introducing a kinetics-based procedure that orders pathways from least (shortest) to greater cost paths. The least costly pathways in dihedral space are found to only involve the same XXXX set of dihedral angles, and the conformers accessed in the closed to open transition pathways are identified. For these major pathways, a correlation between reaction path progress (committors) and the end-to-end distance is identified. A dihedral space principal component analysis of the MD trajectory shows that the first three modes capture most of the overall fluctuation, and pick out the same four dihedrals having essentially all the weight in those modes. A MSM based on root-mean-square backbone clustering was also carried out, with good agreement found with dihedral clustering for the static information, but with results that differ significantly for the pathway analysis.

Spatially explicit models for inference about density in unmarked or partially marked populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chandler, Richard B.; Royle, J. Andrew

2013-01-01

Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models represent a major advance over traditional capture–recapture (CR) models because they yield explicit estimates of animal density instead of population size within an unknown area. Furthermore, unlike nonspatial CR methods, SCR models account for heterogeneity in capture probability arising from the juxtaposition of animal activity centers and sample locations. Although the utility of SCR methods is gaining recognition, the requirement that all individuals can be uniquely identified excludes their use in many contexts. In this paper, we develop models for situations in which individual recognition is not possible, thereby allowing SCR concepts to be applied in studies of unmarked or partially marked populations. The data required for our model are spatially referenced counts made on one or more sample occasions at a collection of closely spaced sample units such that individuals can be encountered at multiple locations. Our approach includes a spatial point process for the animal activity centers and uses the spatial correlation in counts as information about the number and location of the activity centers. Camera-traps, hair snares, track plates, sound recordings, and even point counts can yield spatially correlated count data, and thus our model is widely applicable. A simulation study demonstrated that while the posterior mean exhibits frequentist bias on the order of 5–10% in small samples, the posterior mode is an accurate point estimator as long as adequate spatial correlation is present. Marking a subset of the population substantially increases posterior precision and is recommended whenever possible. We applied our model to avian point count data collected on an unmarked population of the northern parula (Parula americana) and obtained a density estimate (posterior mode) of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.19–1.64) birds/ha. Our paper challenges sampling and analytical conventions in ecology by demonstrating that neither spatial independence nor individual recognition is needed to estimate population density—rather, spatial dependence can be informative about individual distribution and density.

Methodology for the evaluation of vascular surgery manpower in France.

PubMed

Berger, L; Mace, J M; Ricco, J B; Saporta, G

2013-01-01

The French population is growing and ageing. It is expected to increase by 2.7% by 2020, and the number of individuals over 65 years of age is expected to increase by 3.3 million, a 33% increase, between 2005 and 2020. As the number of vascular surgery procedures is closely associated with the age of a population, it is anticipated that there will be a significant increase in the workload of vascular surgeons. A model is presented to predict changes in vascular surgery activity according to population ageing, including other parameters that could affect workload evolution. Three types of arterial procedures were studied: infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) surgery, peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD) procedures and carotid artery (CEA) procedures. Data were selected and extracted from the national PMSI (Medical Information System Program) database. Data obtained from 2000 were used to predict data based on an ageing population for 2008. From this model, a weighted index was defined for each group by comparing expected and observed workloads. According to the model, over this 8-year period, there was an overall increase in vascular procedures of 52.2%, with an increase of 89% in PAOD procedures. Between 2000 and 2009, the total increase was 58.0%, with 3.9% for AAA procedures, 101.7% for PAOD procedures and 13.2% for CEA procedures. The weighted model based on an ageing population and corrected by a weighted factor predicted this increase. This weighted model is able to predict the workload of vascular surgeons over the coming years. An ageing population and other factors could result in a significant increase in demand for vascular surgical services. Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Gratto-Trevor, Cheri L.; Aron, Carol

2014-01-01

Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing a recovery plan requires U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish specific and measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, species are listed because they face (or are perceived to face) elevated risk of extinction due to issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify recovery criteria that reduce extinction risk to an acceptable level. It logically follows that the recovery criteria, the defined conditions for removing a species from ESA protections, need to be closely related to extinction risk. Extinction probability is a population parameter estimated with a model that uses current demographic information to project the population into the future over a number of replicates, calculating the proportion of replicated populations that go extinct. We simulated extinction probabilities of piping plovers in the Great Plains and estimated the relationship between extinction probability and various demographic parameters. We tested the fit of regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, or population growth rate to extinction risk, and then, using the regression parameter estimates, determined the conditions required to reduce extinction probability to some pre-defined acceptable threshold. Binomial regression models with mean population growth rate and the natural log of initial abundance were the best predictors of extinction probability 50 years into the future. For example, based on our regression models, an initial abundance of approximately 2400 females with an expected mean population growth rate of 1.0 will limit extinction risk for piping plovers in the Great Plains to less than 0.048. Our method provides a straightforward way of developing specific and measurable recovery criteria linked directly to the core issue of extinction risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Collaborative Testing as a Model for Addressing Equity in Student Success in STEM Classes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dileonardo, C.; James, B. R.

2016-12-01

Introductory Earth science classes at two-year colleges play a critical role as "gateway courses" for underrepresented student populations into undergraduate STEM programs. Students entering college underprepared in math and science typically receive their only exposure to science at the undergraduate level in introductory courses in the Earth and space sciences. In many colleges a huge disparity exists in these classes between success rates amongst students from groups traditionally represented in the STEM fields and those from underrepresented populations. Closing the equity gap in success in these courses is a major focus of many pilot projects nationally. This concern has also led to the adoption of new teaching and learning practices, based on research in learning, in introductory Earth science pedagogy. Models of teaching practices including greater engagement, active learning approaches, and collaborative learning structures seem to help with student achievement in introductory courses. But, whereas these practices might increase overall student success they have not proven to close the equity gap in achievement. De Anza a two-year college in the San Francisco bay area has a long history in the geology department of incorporating and testing teaching practices developed out of research in learning. Collaborative learning has infused every aspect of our learning approaches in the Earth sciences, including laboratory, fieldwork, and test preparation. Though these approaches seemed to have educational benefit the huge equity gap department-wide persisted between targeted and non-targeted populations. Three years ago collaborative testing models were introduced into our geology and meteorology classes. The mechanism included methods for directly comparing collaborative to individual testing. The net result was that targeted populations including African Americans, Latinos, and Filipinos increased steadily at around 3.5% per year from 66% to 73%. The overall success rates of the non-targeted groups remained between 84% and 86%. Preliminary analysis suggests that for disengaged students in the targeted populations the opportunity to collaborate on a portion of the actual test got them more involved in the collaborative process as it offers immediate tangible return on in-class success.

Cost-effectiveness in Clostridium difficile treatment decision-making

PubMed Central

Nuijten, Mark JC; Keller, Josbert J; Visser, Caroline E; Redekop, Ken; Claassen, Eric; Speelman, Peter; Pronk, Marja H

2015-01-01

AIM: To develop a framework for the clinical and health economic assessment for management of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). METHODS: CDI has vast economic consequences emphasizing the need for innovative and cost effective solutions, which were aim of this study. A guidance model was developed for coverage decisions and guideline development in CDI. The model included pharmacotherapy with oral metronidazole or oral vancomycin, which is the mainstay for pharmacological treatment of CDI and is recommended by most treatment guidelines. RESULTS: A design for a patient-based cost-effectiveness model was developed, which can be used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of current and future treatment strategies in CDI. Patient-based outcomes were extrapolated to the population by including factors like, e.g., person-to-person transmission, isolation precautions and closing and cleaning wards of hospitals. CONCLUSION: The proposed framework for a population-based CDI model may be used for clinical and health economic assessments of CDI guidelines and coverage decisions for emerging treatments for CDI. PMID:26601096

Cost-effectiveness in Clostridium difficile treatment decision-making.

PubMed

Nuijten, Mark Jc; Keller, Josbert J; Visser, Caroline E; Redekop, Ken; Claassen, Eric; Speelman, Peter; Pronk, Marja H

2015-11-16

To develop a framework for the clinical and health economic assessment for management of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). CDI has vast economic consequences emphasizing the need for innovative and cost effective solutions, which were aim of this study. A guidance model was developed for coverage decisions and guideline development in CDI. The model included pharmacotherapy with oral metronidazole or oral vancomycin, which is the mainstay for pharmacological treatment of CDI and is recommended by most treatment guidelines. A design for a patient-based cost-effectiveness model was developed, which can be used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of current and future treatment strategies in CDI. Patient-based outcomes were extrapolated to the population by including factors like, e.g., person-to-person transmission, isolation precautions and closing and cleaning wards of hospitals. The proposed framework for a population-based CDI model may be used for clinical and health economic assessments of CDI guidelines and coverage decisions for emerging treatments for CDI.

Climate shapes the protein abundance of dominant soil bacteria.

PubMed

Bastida, Felipe; Crowther, Tom W; Prieto, Iván; Routh, Devin; García, Carlos; Jehmlich, Nico

2018-05-28

Sensitive models of climate change impacts would require a better integration of multi-omics approaches that connect the abundance and activity of microbial populations. Here, we show that climate is a fundamental driver of the protein abundance of Actinobacteria, Planctomycetes and Proteobacteria, supporting the hypothesis that metabolic activity of some dominant phyla may be closely linked to climate. These results may improve our capacity to construct microbial models that better predict the impact of climate change in ecosystem processes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Alcoholics Anonymous on other substance abuse related Twelve Step programs

PubMed Central

Laudet, Alexandre B.

2008-01-01

This chapter explores the influence of the AA model on self-help fellowships addressing problems of drug dependence. Fellowships that have adapted the 12-step recovery model to other substances of abuse are reviewed; next similarities and differences between AA and drug-recovery 12-step organizations are examined; finally, we present empirical findings on patterns of attendance and perceptions of AA and Narcotics Anonymous (NA) among polydrug dependent populations, many of whom are cross-addicted to alcohol. Future directions in 12-step research are noted in closing. PMID:19115764

Reconstructing historical habitat data with predictive models Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/13-0327.1

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zweig, Christa L.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2014-01-01

Historical vegetation data are important to ecological studies, as many structuring processes operate at long time scales, from decades to centuries. Capturing the pattern of variability within a system (enough to declare a significant change from past to present) relies on correct assumptions about the temporal scale of the processes involved. Sufficient long-term data are often lacking, and current techniques have their weaknesses. To address this concern, we constructed multistate and artificial neural network models (ANN) to provide fore- and hindcast vegetation communities considered critical foraging habitat for an endangered bird, the Florida Snail Kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis). Multistate models were not able to hindcast due to our data not satisfying a detailed balance requirement for time reversibility in Markovian dynamics. Multistate models were useful for forecasting and providing environmental variables for the ANN. Results from our ANN hindcast closely mirrored the population collapse of the Snail Kite population using only environmental data to inform the model. The parallel between the two gives us confidence in the hindcasting results and their use in future demographic models.

Modeling uncertainty in computerized guidelines using fuzzy logic.

PubMed Central

Jaulent, M. C.; Joyaux, C.; Colombet, I.; Gillois, P.; Degoulet, P.; Chatellier, G.

2001-01-01

Computerized Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPGs) improve quality of care by assisting physicians in their decision making. A number of problems emerges since patients with close characteristics are given contradictory recommendations. In this article, we propose to use fuzzy logic to model uncertainty due to the use of thresholds in CPGs. A fuzzy classification procedure has been developed that provides for each message of the CPG, a strength of recommendation that rates the appropriateness of the recommendation for the patient under consideration. This work is done in the context of a CPG for the diagnosis and the management of hypertension, published in 1997 by the French agency ANAES. A population of 82 patients with mild to moderate hypertension was selected and the results of the classification system were compared to whose given by a classical decision tree. Observed agreement is 86.6% and the variability of recommendations for patients with close characteristics is reduced. PMID:11825196

Geographic analysis of shigellosis in Vietnam.

PubMed

Kim, Deok Ryun; Ali, Mohammad; Thiem, Vu Dinh; Park, Jin-Kyung; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Clemens, John

2008-12-01

Geographic and ecological analysis may provide investigators useful ecological information for the control of shigellosis. This paper provides distribution of individual Shigella species in space, and ecological covariates for shigellosis in Nha Trang, Vietnam. Data on shigellosis in neighborhoods were used to identify ecological covariates. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to obtain joint posterior distribution of model parameters and to construct smoothed risk maps for shigellosis. Neighborhoods with a high proportion of worshippers of traditional religion, close proximity to hospital, or close proximity to the river had increased risk for shigellosis. The ecological covariates associated with Shigella flexneri differed from the covariates for Shigella sonnei. In contrast the spatial distribution of the two species was similar. The disease maps can help identify high-risk areas of shigellosis that can be targeted for interventions. This approach may be useful for the selection of populations and the analysis of vaccine trials.

Bet-hedging in bacteriocin producing Escherichia coli populations: the single cell perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayramoglu, Bihter; Toubiana, David; van Vliet, Simon; Inglis, R. Fredrik; Shnerb, Nadav; Gillor, Osnat

2017-02-01

Production of public goods in biological systems is often a collaborative effort that may be detrimental to the producers. It is therefore sustainable only if a small fraction of the population shoulders the cost while the majority reap the benefits. We modelled this scenario using Escherichia coli populations producing colicins, an antibiotic that kills producer cells’ close relatives. Colicin expression is a costly trait, and it has been proposed that only a small fraction of the population actively expresses the antibiotic. Colicinogenic populations were followed at the single-cell level using time-lapse microscopy, and showed two distinct, albeit dynamic, subpopulations: the majority silenced colicin expression, while a small fraction of elongated, slow-growing cells formed colicin-expressing hotspots, placing a significant burden on expressers. Moreover, monitoring lineages of individual colicinogenic cells showed stochastic switching between expressers and non-expressers. Hence, colicin expressers may be engaged in risk-reducing strategies—or bet-hedging—as they balance the cost of colicin production with the need to repel competitors. To test the bet-hedging strategy in colicin-mediated interactions, competitions between colicin-sensitive and producer cells were simulated using a numerical model, demonstrating a finely balanced expression range that is essential to sustaining the colicinogenic population.

The Dynamics of Objects in the Inner Edgeworth Kuiper Belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Daniel C.; Williams, Iwan P.; Melita, Mario D.

2005-12-01

Objects in 3:2 mean motion resonance with Neptune are protected from close encounters with Neptune by the resonance. Bodies in orbits with semi-major axis between 39.5 and about 42 AU are not protected by the resonance; indeed due to overlapping secular resonances, the eccentricities of orbits in this region are driven up so that a close encounter with Neptune becomes inevitable. It is thus expected that such orbits are unstable. The list of known Trans-Neptunian objects shows a deficiency in the number of objects in this gap compared to the 43 50 AU region, but the gap is not empty. We numerically integrate models for the initial population in the gap, and also all known objects over the age of the Solar System to determine what fraction can survive. We find that this fraction is significantly less than the ratio of the population in the gap to that in the main belt, suggesting that some mechanism must exist to introduce new members into the gap. By looking at the evolution of the test body orbits, we also determine the manner in which they are lost. Though all have close encounters with Neptune, in most cases this does not lead to ejection from the Solar System, but rather to a reduced perihelion distance causing close encounters with some or all of the other giant planets before being eventually lost from the system, with Saturn appearing to be the cause of the ejection of most of the objects.

Camera traps and mark-resight models: The value of ancillary data for evaluating assumptions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, Arielle W.; Simons, Theodore R.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Stoskopf, Michael K.; Stocking, Jessica J.; O'Connell, Allan F.

2015-01-01

Unbiased estimators of abundance and density are fundamental to the study of animal ecology and critical for making sound management decisions. Capture–recapture models are generally considered the most robust approach for estimating these parameters but rely on a number of assumptions that are often violated but rarely validated. Mark-resight models, a form of capture–recapture, are well suited for use with noninvasive sampling methods and allow for a number of assumptions to be relaxed. We used ancillary data from continuous video and radio telemetry to evaluate the assumptions of mark-resight models for abundance estimation on a barrier island raccoon (Procyon lotor) population using camera traps. Our island study site was geographically closed, allowing us to estimate real survival and in situ recruitment in addition to population size. We found several sources of bias due to heterogeneity of capture probabilities in our study, including camera placement, animal movement, island physiography, and animal behavior. Almost all sources of heterogeneity could be accounted for using the sophisticated mark-resight models developed by McClintock et al. (2009b) and this model generated estimates similar to a spatially explicit mark-resight model previously developed for this population during our study. Spatially explicit capture–recapture models have become an important tool in ecology and confer a number of advantages; however, non-spatial models that account for inherent individual heterogeneity may perform nearly as well, especially where immigration and emigration are limited. Non-spatial models are computationally less demanding, do not make implicit assumptions related to the isotropy of home ranges, and can provide insights with respect to the biological traits of the local population.

A First-Principles Model of Early Evolution: Emergence of Gene Families, Species, and Preferred Protein Folds

PubMed Central

Zeldovich, Konstantin B; Chen, Peiqiu; Shakhnovich, Boris E; Shakhnovich, Eugene I

2007-01-01

In this work we develop a microscopic physical model of early evolution where phenotype—organism life expectancy—is directly related to genotype—the stability of its proteins in their native conformations—which can be determined exactly in the model. Simulating the model on a computer, we consistently observe the “Big Bang” scenario whereby exponential population growth ensues as soon as favorable sequence–structure combinations (precursors of stable proteins) are discovered. Upon that, random diversity of the structural space abruptly collapses into a small set of preferred proteins. We observe that protein folds remain stable and abundant in the population at timescales much greater than mutation or organism lifetime, and the distribution of the lifetimes of dominant folds in a population approximately follows a power law. The separation of evolutionary timescales between discovery of new folds and generation of new sequences gives rise to emergence of protein families and superfamilies whose sizes are power-law distributed, closely matching the same distributions for real proteins. On the population level we observe emergence of species—subpopulations that carry similar genomes. Further, we present a simple theory that relates stability of evolving proteins to the sizes of emerging genomes. Together, these results provide a microscopic first-principles picture of how first-gene families developed in the course of early evolution. PMID:17630830

A first-principles model of early evolution: emergence of gene families, species, and preferred protein folds.

PubMed

Zeldovich, Konstantin B; Chen, Peiqiu; Shakhnovich, Boris E; Shakhnovich, Eugene I

2007-07-01

In this work we develop a microscopic physical model of early evolution where phenotype--organism life expectancy--is directly related to genotype--the stability of its proteins in their native conformations-which can be determined exactly in the model. Simulating the model on a computer, we consistently observe the "Big Bang" scenario whereby exponential population growth ensues as soon as favorable sequence-structure combinations (precursors of stable proteins) are discovered. Upon that, random diversity of the structural space abruptly collapses into a small set of preferred proteins. We observe that protein folds remain stable and abundant in the population at timescales much greater than mutation or organism lifetime, and the distribution of the lifetimes of dominant folds in a population approximately follows a power law. The separation of evolutionary timescales between discovery of new folds and generation of new sequences gives rise to emergence of protein families and superfamilies whose sizes are power-law distributed, closely matching the same distributions for real proteins. On the population level we observe emergence of species--subpopulations that carry similar genomes. Further, we present a simple theory that relates stability of evolving proteins to the sizes of emerging genomes. Together, these results provide a microscopic first-principles picture of how first-gene families developed in the course of early evolution.

Demography of a population collapse: the Northern Idaho ground squirrel (Spermophilus brunneus brunneus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherman, P.W.; Runge, M.C.

2002-01-01

We studied the demography of a population of Northern Idaho ground squirrels (Spermophilus brunneus brunneus) in Adams Co., Idaho. The population was completely censused yearly from 1987 to 1999, during which time it declined from 272 to 10 animals. The finite population growth rate, based on a Leslie matrix model of average life-history parameters, was only 0.72 (i.e., significantly <1.0). Growth rate was more sensitive to proportional changes in juvenile female survival than to any other single life-history parameter. Comparisons with self-sustaining populations of closely related ground squirrel species revealed that juvenile survival and breeding rates of yearling females were anomalously low. We believe that the ultimate cause of the population's collapse was inadequacy of food resources, particularly seeds, due to drying of the habitat and changes in plant species composition, likely the result of fire suppression and grazing. No 'rescue' by immigration occurred, probably because S. b. brunneus seldom disperse long distances and fire suppression has allowed conifers to encroach on inhabited meadows, shrinking them and closing dispersal routes. The proximate cause of the population's collapse was mortality of older breeding females, which reduced the mean age of breeders. Younger females had lower average pregnancy rates and litter sizes. To place our results in context we developed a new, general classification of anthropogenic population declines, based on whether they are caused by changes in the means of the life-history parameters (blatant disturbances), their variances (inappropriate variations), or the correlations among them (evolutionary traps). Many S. b. brunneus populations have disappeared in recent years, apparently due to blatant disturbances, especially loss of habitat and changes in food-plant composition, resulting in inadequate prehibernation nutrition and starvation overwinter. In addition, our study population may have been caught in an evolutionary trap, because the vegetational cues that could potentially enable the animals to adjust reproduction to the anticipated food supply no longer correlate with availability of fat-laden seeds.

Resolving complex phylogeographic patterns in the Balkan Peninsula using closely related wall-lizard species as a model system.

PubMed

Psonis, Nikolaos; Antoniou, Aglaia; Karameta, Emmanouela; Leaché, Adam D; Kotsakiozi, Panayiota; Darriba, Diego; Kozlov, Alexey; Stamatakis, Alexandros; Poursanidis, Dimitris; Kukushkin, Oleg; Jablonski, Daniel; Crnobrnja-Isailović, Jelka; Gherghel, Iulian; Lymberakis, Petros; Poulakakis, Nikos

2018-08-01

The Balkan Peninsula constitutes a biodiversity hotspot with high levels of species richness and endemism. The complex geological history of the Balkans in conjunction with the climate evolution are hypothesized as the main drivers generating this biodiversity. We investigated the phylogeography, historical demography, and population structure of closely related wall-lizard species from the Balkan Peninsula and southeastern Europe to better understand diversification processes of species with limited dispersal ability, from Late Miocene to the Holocene. We used several analytical methods integrating genome-wide SNPs (ddRADseq), microsatellites, mitochondrial and nuclear DNA data, as well as species distribution modelling. Phylogenomic analysis resulted in a completely resolved species level phylogeny, population level analyses confirmed the existence of at least two cryptic evolutionary lineages and extensive within species genetic structuring. Divergence time estimations indicated that the Messinian Salinity Crisis played a key role in shaping patterns of species divergence, whereas intraspecific genetic structuring was mainly driven by Pliocene tectonic events and Quaternary climatic oscillations. The present work highlights the effectiveness of utilizing multiple methods and data types coupled with extensive geographic sampling to uncover the evolutionary processes that shaped the species over space and time. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The low diverse gastric microbiome of the jellyfish Cotylorhiza tuberculata is dominated by four novel taxa.

PubMed

Viver, Tomeu; Orellana, Luis H; Hatt, Janet K; Urdiain, Mercedes; Díaz, Sara; Richter, Michael; Antón, Josefa; Avian, Massimo; Amann, Rudolf; Konstantinidis, Konstantinos T; Rosselló-Móra, Ramon

2017-08-01

Cotylorhiza tuberculata is an important scyphozoan jellyfish producing population blooms in the Mediterranean probably due to pelagic ecosystem's decay. Its gastric cavity can serve as a simple model of microbial-animal digestive associations, yet poorly characterized. Using state-of-the-art metagenomic population binning and catalyzed reporter deposition fluorescence in situ hybridization (CARD-FISH), we show that only four novel clonal phylotypes were consistently associated with multiple jellyfish adults. Two affiliated close to Spiroplasma and Mycoplasma genera, one to chlamydial 'Candidatus Syngnamydia', and one to bacteroidetal Tenacibaculum, and were at least one order of magnitude more abundant than any other bacteria detected. Metabolic modelling predicted an aerobic heterotrophic lifestyle for the chlamydia, which were found intracellularly in Onychodromopsis-like ciliates. The Spiroplasma-like organism was predicted to be an anaerobic fermenter associated to some jellyfish cells, whereas the Tenacibaculum-like as free-living aerobic heterotroph, densely colonizing the mesogleal axis inside the gastric filaments. The association between the jellyfish and its reduced microbiome was close and temporally stable, and possibly related to food digestion and protection from pathogens. Based on the genomic and microscopic data, we propose three candidate taxa: 'Candidatus Syngnamydia medusae', 'Candidatus Medusoplasma mediterranei' and 'Candidatus Tenacibaculum medusae'. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Size-density scaling in protists and the links between consumer-resource interaction parameters.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Vasseur, David A

2012-11-01

Recent work indicates that the interaction between body-size-dependent demographic processes can generate macroecological patterns such as the scaling of population density with body size. In this study, we evaluate this possibility for grazing protists and also test whether demographic parameters in these models are correlated after controlling for body size. We compiled data on the body-size dependence of consumer-resource interactions and population density for heterotrophic protists grazing algae in laboratory studies. We then used nested dynamic models to predict both the height and slope of the scaling relationship between population density and body size for these protists. We also controlled for consumer size and assessed links between model parameters. Finally, we used the models and the parameter estimates to assess the individual- and population-level dependence of resource use on body-size and prey-size selection. The predicted size-density scaling for all models matched closely to the observed scaling, and the simplest model was sufficient to predict the pattern. Variation around the mean size-density scaling relationship may be generated by variation in prey productivity and area of capture, but residuals are relatively insensitive to variation in prey size selection. After controlling for body size, many consumer-resource interaction parameters were correlated, and a positive correlation between residual prey size selection and conversion efficiency neutralizes the apparent fitness advantage of taking large prey. Our results indicate that widespread community-level patterns can be explained with simple population models that apply consistently across a range of sizes. They also indicate that the parameter space governing the dynamics and the steady states in these systems is structured such that some parts of the parameter space are unlikely to represent real systems. Finally, predator-prey size ratios represent a kind of conundrum, because they are widely observed but apparently have little influence on population size and fitness, at least at this level of organization. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Oceanography and life history predict contrasting genetic population structure in two Antarctic fish species

PubMed Central

Young, Emma F; Belchier, Mark; Hauser, Lorenz; Horsburgh, Gavin J; Meredith, Michael P; Murphy, Eugene J; Pascoal, Sonia; Rock, Jennifer; Tysklind, Niklas; Carvalho, Gary R

2015-01-01

Understanding the key drivers of population connectivity in the marine environment is essential for the effective management of natural resources. Although several different approaches to evaluating connectivity have been used, they are rarely integrated quantitatively. Here, we use a ‘seascape genetics’ approach, by combining oceanographic modelling and microsatellite analyses, to understand the dominant influences on the population genetic structure of two Antarctic fishes with contrasting life histories, Champsocephalus gunnari and Notothenia rossii. The close accord between the model projections and empirical genetic structure demonstrated that passive dispersal during the planktonic early life stages is the dominant influence on patterns and extent of genetic structuring in both species. The shorter planktonic phase of C. gunnari restricts direct transport of larvae between distant populations, leading to stronger regional differentiation. By contrast, geographic distance did not affect differentiation in N. rossii, whose longer larval period promotes long-distance dispersal. Interannual variability in oceanographic flows strongly influenced the projected genetic structure, suggesting that shifts in circulation patterns due to climate change are likely to impact future genetic connectivity and opportunities for local adaptation, resilience and recovery from perturbations. Further development of realistic climate models is required to fully assess such potential impacts. PMID:26029262

Life cycle replacement by gene introduction under an allee effect in periodical cicadas.

PubMed

Nariai, Yukiko; Hayashi, Saki; Morita, Satoru; Umemura, Yoshitaka; Tainaka, Kei-ichi; Sota, Teiji; Cooley, John R; Yoshimura, Jin

2011-04-06

Periodical cicadas (Magicicada spp.) in the USA are divided into three species groups (-decim, -cassini, -decula) of similar but distinct morphology and behavior. Each group contains at least one species with a 17-year life cycle and one with a 13-year cycle; each species is most closely related to one with the other cycle. One explanation for the apparent polyphyly of 13- and 17-year life cycles is that populations switch between the two cycles. Using a numerical model, we test the general feasibility of life cycle switching by the introduction of alleles for one cycle into populations of the other cycle. Our results suggest that fitness reductions at low population densities of mating individuals (the Allee effect) could play a role in life cycle switching. In our model, if the 13-year cycle is genetically dominant, a 17-year cycle population will switch to a 13-year cycle given the introduction of a few 13-year cycle alleles under a moderate Allee effect. We also show that under a weak Allee effect, different year-classes ("broods") with 17-year life cycles can be generated. Remarkably, the outcomes of our models depend only on the dominance relationships of the cycle alleles, irrespective of any fitness advantages.

Support from the relationship of genetic and geographic distance in human populations for a serial founder effect originating in Africa

PubMed Central

Ramachandran, Sohini; Deshpande, Omkar; Roseman, Charles C.; Rosenberg, Noah A.; Feldman, Marcus W.; Cavalli-Sforza, L. Luca

2005-01-01

Equilibrium models of isolation by distance predict an increase in genetic differentiation with geographic distance. Here we find a linear relationship between genetic and geographic distance in a worldwide sample of human populations, with major deviations from the fitted line explicable by admixture or extreme isolation. A close relationship is shown to exist between the correlation of geographic distance and genetic differentiation (as measured by FST) and the geographic pattern of heterozygosity across populations. Considering a worldwide set of geographic locations as possible sources of the human expansion, we find that heterozygosities in the globally distributed populations of the data set are best explained by an expansion originating in Africa and that no geographic origin outside of Africa accounts as well for the observed patterns of genetic diversity. Although the relationship between FST and geographic distance has been interpreted in the past as the result of an equilibrium model of drift and dispersal, simulation shows that the geographic pattern of heterozygosities in this data set is consistent with a model of a serial founder effect starting at a single origin. Given this serial-founder scenario, the relationship between genetic and geographic distance allows us to derive bounds for the effects of drift and natural selection on human genetic variation. PMID:16243969

Estimating black bear population density and genetic diversity at Tensas River, Louisiana using microsatellite DNA markers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boersen, Mark R.; Clark, Joseph D.; King, Tim L.

2003-01-01

The Recovery Plan for the federally threatened Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) mandates that remnant populations be estimated and monitored. In 1999 we obtained genetic material with barbed-wire hair traps to estimate bear population size and genetic diversity at the 329-km2 Tensas River Tract, Louisiana. We constructed and monitored 122 hair traps, which produced 1,939 hair samples. Of those, we randomly selected 116 subsamples for genetic analysis and used up to 12 microsatellite DNA markers to obtain multilocus genotypes for 58 individuals. We used Program CAPTURE to compute estimates of population size using multiple mark-recapture models. The area of study was almost entirely circumscribed by agricultural land, thus the population was geographically closed. Also, study-area boundaries were biologically discreet, enabling us to accurately estimate population density. Using model Chao Mh to account for possible effects of individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities, we estimated the population size to be 119 (SE=29.4) bears, or 0.36 bears/km2. We were forced to examine a substantial number of loci to differentiate between some individuals because of low genetic variation. Despite the probable introduction of genes from Minnesota bears in the 1960s, the isolated population at Tensas exhibited characteristics consistent with inbreeding and genetic drift. Consequently, the effective population size at Tensas may be as few as 32, which warrants continued monitoring or possibly genetic augmentation.

Potential and limits for rapid genetic adaptation to warming in a Great Barrier Reef coral.

PubMed

Matz, Mikhail V; Treml, Eric A; Aglyamova, Galina V; Bay, Line K

2018-04-01

Can genetic adaptation in reef-building corals keep pace with the current rate of sea surface warming? Here we combine population genomics, biophysical modeling, and evolutionary simulations to predict future adaptation of the common coral Acropora millepora on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Genomics-derived migration rates were high (0.1-1% of immigrants per generation across half the latitudinal range of the GBR) and closely matched the biophysical model of larval dispersal. Both genetic and biophysical models indicated the prevalence of southward migration along the GBR that would facilitate the spread of heat-tolerant alleles to higher latitudes as the climate warms. We developed an individual-based metapopulation model of polygenic adaptation and parameterized it with population sizes and migration rates derived from the genomic analysis. We find that high migration rates do not disrupt local thermal adaptation, and that the resulting standing genetic variation should be sufficient to fuel rapid region-wide adaptation of A. millepora populations to gradual warming over the next 20-50 coral generations (100-250 years). Further adaptation based on novel mutations might also be possible, but this depends on the currently unknown genetic parameters underlying coral thermal tolerance and the rate of warming realized. Despite this capacity for adaptation, our model predicts that coral populations would become increasingly sensitive to random thermal fluctuations such as ENSO cycles or heat waves, which corresponds well with the recent increase in frequency of catastrophic coral bleaching events.

Divergence of gastropod life history in contrasting thermal environments in a geothermal lake.

PubMed

Johansson, M P; Ermold, F; Kristjánsson, B K; Laurila, A

2016-10-01

Experiments using natural populations have provided mixed support for thermal adaptation models, probably because the conditions are often confounded with additional environmental factors like seasonality. The contrasting geothermal environments within Lake Mývatn, northern Iceland, provide a unique opportunity to evaluate thermal adaptation models using closely located natural populations. We conducted laboratory common garden and field reciprocal transplant experiments to investigate how thermal origin influences the life history of Radix balthica snails originating from stable cold (6 °C), stable warm (23 °C) thermal environments or from areas with seasonal temperature variation. Supporting thermal optimality models, warm-origin snails survived poorly at 6 °C in the common garden experiment and better than cold-origin and seasonal-origin snails in the warm habitat in the reciprocal transplant experiment. Contrary to thermal adaptation models, growth rate in both experiments was highest in the warm populations irrespective of temperature, indicating cogradient variation. The optimal temperatures for growth and reproduction were similar irrespective of origin, but cold-origin snails always had the lowest performance, and seasonal-origin snails often performed at an intermediate level compared to snails originating in either stable environment. Our results indicate that central life-history traits can differ in their mode of evolution, with survival following the predictions of thermal optimality models, whereas ecological constraints have shaped the evolution of growth rates in local populations. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

The stellar content of the nuclear regions of Sc galaxies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turnrose, B. E.

1976-01-01

Stellar-population syntheses based on absolute spectral energy distributions over the wavelength range from 3300 to 10,400 A are used to determine the stellar content of the nuclear regions of seven nearby Sc galaxies (NGC 628, 1073, 1084, 1637, 2903, 4321, and 5194). A linear-programming procedure is employed to construct models of the overall stellar populations whose spectra closely match those of the seven galaxies. Absolute measurements of the emission-line spectra of the nuclear regions are also provided. It is found that: (1) intrinsic reddening is probably present in each nuclear region; (2) the upper main sequence is substantially populated in most of the models; (3) the lower main sequence contributes insignificantly to the luminosity in all optimal solutions; (4) substantial contributions are made by evolved M stars at long wavelengths in all the models; (5) the model photometric M/L ratios are low, of the order of unity; and (6) the O-B stars arising naturally in the population models are just sufficient to provide the observed nuclear ionization in all the galaxies except NGC 5194, which may be collisionally ionized. The properties of the nuclear regions are shown to be consistent with the existence of a common initial mass function for star formation and a variety of time dependences for the star-formation process. A possibly significant correlation is noted between nuclear stellar content and overall dynamical properties in four of the galaxies.

Modeling the suppression of sea lamprey populations by the release of sterile males or sterile females

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klassen, Waldemar; Adams, Jean V.; Twohey, Michael B.

2004-01-01

The suppressive effects of trapping adult sea lampreys, Petromyzon marinus Linnaeus, and releasing sterile males (SMRT) or females (SFRT) into a closed system were expressed in deterministic models. Suppression was modeled as a function of the proportion of the population removed by trapping, the number of sterile animals released, the reproductive rate and sex ratio of the population, and (for the SFRT) the rate of polygyny. Releasing sterile males reduced populations more quickly than did the release of sterile females. For a population in which 30% are trapped, sterile animals are initially released at ratio of 10 sterile to 1 fertile animal, 5 adult progeny are produced per fertile mating, 60% are male, and males mate with an average of 1.65 females, the initial population is reduced 87% by SMRT and 68% by SFRT in one generation. The extent of suppression achieved is most sensitive to changes in the initial sterile release ratio. Given the current status of sea lamprey populations and trapping operations in the Great Lakes, the sterile-male-release technique has the best chance for success on a lake-wide basis if implemented in Lake Michigan. The effectiveness of the sterile-female-release technique should be investigated in a controlled study. Advancing trapping technology should be a high priority in the near term, and artificial rearing of sea lampreys to the adult stage should be a high priority in the long term. The diligent pursuit of sea lamprey suppression over a period of several decades can be expected to yield great benefits.

Population trends in northern spotted owls: Associations with climate in the Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glenn, E.M.; Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.

2010-01-01

We used reverse time capture-mark-recapture models to describe associations between rate of population change (??) and climate for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) at six long-term study areas in Washington and Oregon, USA. Populations in three of six areas showed strong evidence of declining populations, while populations in two additional areas were likely declining as well. At four areas, ?? was positively associated with wetter-than-normal conditions during the growing season, which likely affects prey availability. Lambda was also negatively associated with cold, wet winters and nesting seasons, and the number of hot summer days. The amount of annual variation in ?? accounted for by climate varied across study areas (3-85%). Rate of population change was more sensitive to adult survival than to recruitment; however, there was considerable variation among years and across study areas for all demographic rates. While annual survival was more closely related to regional climate conditions, recruitment was often associated with local weather. In addition to climate, declines in recruitment at four of six areas were associated with increased presence of barred owls. Climate change models predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest in the first half of the 21st century. Our results indicate that these conditions have the potential to negatively affect annual survival, recruitment, and consequently population growth rates for northern spotted owls. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Stellar nucleosynthesis and chemical evolution of the solar neighborhood

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayton, Donald D.

1988-01-01

Current theoretical models of nucleosynthesis (N) in stars are reviewed, with an emphasis on their implications for Galactic chemical evolution. Topics addressed include the Galactic population II red giants and early N; N in the big bang; star formation, stellar evolution, and the ejection of thermonuclearly evolved debris; the chemical evolution of an idealized disk galaxy; analytical solutions for a closed-box model with continuous infall; and nuclear burning processes and yields. Consideration is given to shell N in massive stars, N related to degenerate cores, and the types of observational data used to constrain N models. Extensive diagrams, graphs, and tables of numerical data are provided.

Genetic Algorithms and Nucleation in VIH-AIDS transition.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barranon, Armando

2003-03-01

VIH to AIDS transition has been modeled via a genetic algorithm that uses boom-boom principle and where population evolution is simulated with a cellular automaton based on SIR model. VIH to AIDS transition is signed by nucleation of infected cells and low probability of infection are obtained for different mutation rates in agreement with clinical results. A power law is obtained with a critical exponent close to the critical exponent of cubic, spherical percolation, colossal magnetic resonance, Ising Model and liquid-gas phase transition in heavy ion collisions. Computations were carried out at UAM-A Supercomputing Lab and author acknowledges financial support from Division of CBI at UAM-A.

Direct imaging search for the "missing link" in giant planet formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngo, Henry; Mawet, Dimitri; Ruane, Garreth; Xuan, Wenhao; Bowler, Brendan; Cook, Therese; Zawol, Zoe

2018-01-01

While transit and radial velocity detection techniques have probed giant planet populations at close separations (within a few au), current direct imaging surveys are finding giant planets at separations of 10s-100s au. Furthermore, these directly imaged planets are very massive, including some with masses above the deuterium burning limit. It is not certain whether these objects represent the high mass end of planet formation scenarios or the low mass end of star formation. We present a direct imaging survey to search for the "missing link" population between the close-in RV and transiting giant planets and the extremely distant directly imaged giant planets (i.e. giant planets between 5-10 au). Finding and characterizing this population allows for comparisons with the formation models of closer-in planets and connects directly imaged planets with closer-in planets in semi-major axis phase space. In addition, microlensing surveys have suggested a large reservoir of giant planets exist in this region. To find these "missing link" giant planets, our survey searches for giant planets around M-stars. The ubiquity of M-stars provide a large number of nearby targets and their L-band contrast with planets allow for sensitivities to smaller planet masses than surveys conducted at shorter wavelengths. Along with careful target selection, we use Keck's L-band vector vortex coronagraph to enable sensitivities of a few Jupiter masses as close as 4 au to their host stars. We present our completed 2-year survey targeting 200 young (10-150 Myr), nearby M-stars and our ongoing work to follow-up over 40 candidate objects.

Population growth and collapse in a multiagent model of the Kayenta Anasazi in Long House Valley.

PubMed

Axtell, Robert L; Epstein, Joshua M; Dean, Jeffrey S; Gumerman, George J; Swedlund, Alan C; Harburger, Jason; Chakravarty, Shubha; Hammond, Ross; Parker, Jon; Parker, Miles

2002-05-14

Long House Valley in the Black Mesa area of northeastern Arizona (U.S.) was inhabited by the Kayenta Anasazi from about 1800 before Christ to about anno Domini 1300. These people were prehistoric ancestors of the modern Pueblo cultures of the Colorado Plateau. Paleoenvironmental research based on alluvial geomorphology, palynology, and dendroclimatology permits accurate quantitative reconstruction of annual fluctuations in potential agricultural production (kg of maize per hectare). The archaeological record of Anasazi farming groups from anno Domini 200-1300 provides information on a millennium of sociocultural stasis, variability, change, and adaptation. We report on a multiagent computational model of this society that closely reproduces the main features of its actual history, including population ebb and flow, changing spatial settlement patterns, and eventual rapid decline. The agents in the model are monoagriculturalists, who decide both where to situate their fields as well as the location of their settlements. Nutritional needs constrain fertility. Agent heterogeneity, difficult to model mathematically, is demonstrated to be crucial to the high fidelity of the model.

Population growth and collapse in a multiagent model of the Kayenta Anasazi in Long House Valley

PubMed Central

Axtell, Robert L.; Epstein, Joshua M.; Dean, Jeffrey S.; Gumerman, George J.; Swedlund, Alan C.; Harburger, Jason; Chakravarty, Shubha; Hammond, Ross; Parker, Jon; Parker, Miles

2002-01-01

Long House Valley in the Black Mesa area of northeastern Arizona (U.S.) was inhabited by the Kayenta Anasazi from about 1800 before Christ to about anno Domini 1300. These people were prehistoric ancestors of the modern Pueblo cultures of the Colorado Plateau. Paleoenvironmental research based on alluvial geomorphology, palynology, and dendroclimatology permits accurate quantitative reconstruction of annual fluctuations in potential agricultural production (kg of maize per hectare). The archaeological record of Anasazi farming groups from anno Domini 200-1300 provides information on a millennium of sociocultural stasis, variability, change, and adaptation. We report on a multiagent computational model of this society that closely reproduces the main features of its actual history, including population ebb and flow, changing spatial settlement patterns, and eventual rapid decline. The agents in the model are monoagriculturalists, who decide both where to situate their fields as well as the location of their settlements. Nutritional needs constrain fertility. Agent heterogeneity, difficult to model mathematically, is demonstrated to be crucial to the high fidelity of the model. PMID:12011406

The noisy edge of traveling waves

PubMed Central

Hallatschek, Oskar

2011-01-01

Traveling waves are ubiquitous in nature and control the speed of many important dynamical processes, including chemical reactions, epidemic outbreaks, and biological evolution. Despite their fundamental role in complex systems, traveling waves remain elusive because they are often dominated by rare fluctuations in the wave tip, which have defied any rigorous analysis so far. Here, we show that by adjusting nonlinear model details, noisy traveling waves can be solved exactly. The moment equations of these tuned models are closed and have a simple analytical structure resembling the deterministic approximation supplemented by a nonlocal cutoff term. The peculiar form of the cutoff shapes the noisy edge of traveling waves and is critical for the correct prediction of the wave speed and its fluctuations. Our approach is illustrated and benchmarked using the example of fitness waves arising in simple models of microbial evolution, which are highly sensitive to number fluctuations. We demonstrate explicitly how these models can be tuned to account for finite population sizes and determine how quickly populations adapt as a function of population size and mutation rates. More generally, our method is shown to apply to a broad class of models, in which number fluctuations are generated by branching processes. Because of this versatility, the method of model tuning may serve as a promising route toward unraveling universal properties of complex discrete particle systems. PMID:21187435

Greater sage-grouse population trends across Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Monroe, Adrian

2018-01-01

The scale at which analyses are performed can have an effect on model results and often one scale does not accurately describe the ecological phenomena of interest (e.g., population trends) for wide-ranging species: yet, most ecological studies are performed at a single, arbitrary scale. To best determine local and regional trends for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming, USA, we modeled density-independent and -dependent population growth across multiple spatial scales relevant to management and conservation (Core Areas [habitat encompassing approximately 83% of the sage-grouse population on ∼24% of surface area in Wyoming], local Working Groups [7 regional areas for which groups of local experts are tasked with implementing Wyoming's statewide sage-grouse conservation plan at the local level], Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) by Working Groups, and Core Areas by Working Groups). Our goal was to determine the influence of fine-scale population trends (Core Areas) on larger-scale populations (Working Group Areas). We modeled the natural log of change in population size ( peak M lek counts) by time to calculate the finite rate of population growth (λ) for each population of interest from 1993 to 2015. We found that in general when Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) was investigated by Working Group Area, the 2 populations trended similarly and agreed with the overall trend of the Working Group Area. However, at the finer scale where Core Areas were analyzed separately, Core Areas within the same Working Group Area often trended differently and a few large Core Areas could influence the overall Working Group Area trend and mask trends occurring in smaller Core Areas. Relatively close fine-scale populations of sage-grouse can trend differently, indicating that large-scale trends may not accurately depict what is occurring across the landscape (e.g., local effects of gas and oil fields may be masked by increasing larger populations). 

Chloroplast DNA Diversity among Trees, Populations and Species in the California Closed-Cone Pines (Pinus Radiata, Pinus Muricata and Pinus Attenuata)

PubMed Central

Hong, Y. P.; Hipkins, V. D.; Strauss, S. H.

1993-01-01

The amount, distribution and mutational nature of chloroplast DNA polymorphisms were studied via analysis of restriction fragment length polymorphisms in three closely related species of conifers, the California closed-cone pines-knobcone pine: Pinus attenuata Lemm.; bishop pine: Pinus muricata D. Don; and Monterey pine: Pinus radiata D. Don. Genomic DNA from 384 trees representing 19 populations were digested with 9-20 restriction enzymes and probed with cloned cpDNA fragments from Douglas-fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco] that comprise 82% of the chloroplast genome. Up to 313 restriction sites were surveyed, and 25 of these were observed to be polymorphic among or within species. Differences among species accounted for the majority of genetic (haplotypic) diversity observed [G(st) = 84(+/-13)%]; nucleotide diversity among species was estimated to be 0.3(+/-0.1)%. Knobcone pine and Monterey pine displayed almost no genetic variation within or among populations. Bishop pine also showed little variability within populations, but did display strong population differences [G(st) = 87(+/-8)%] that were a result of three distinct geographic groups. Mean nucleotide diversity within populations was 0.003(+/-0.002)%; intrapopulation polymorphisms were found in only five populations. This pattern of genetic variation contrasts strongly with findings from study of nuclear genes (allozymes) in the group, where most genetic diversity resides within populations rather than among populations or species. Regions of the genome subject to frequent length mutations were identified; estimates of subdivision based on length variant frequencies in one region differed strikingly from those based on site mutations or allozymes. Two trees were identified with a major chloroplast DNA inversion that closely resembled one documented between Pinus and Pseudotsuga. PMID:7905846

Population-level differences in disease transmission: A Bayesian analysis of multiple smallpox epidemics

PubMed Central

Elderd, Bret D.; Dwyer, Greg; Dukic, Vanja

2013-01-01

Estimates of a disease’s basic reproductive rate R0 play a central role in understanding outbreaks and planning intervention strategies. In many calculations of R0, a simplifying assumption is that different host populations have effectively identical transmission rates. This assumption can lead to an underestimate of the overall uncertainty associated with R0, which, due to the non-linearity of epidemic processes, may result in a mis-estimate of epidemic intensity and miscalculated expenditures associated with public-health interventions. In this paper, we utilize a Bayesian method for quantifying the overall uncertainty arising from differences in population-specific basic reproductive rates. Using this method, we fit spatial and non-spatial susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) models to a series of 13 smallpox outbreaks. Five outbreaks occurred in populations that had been previously exposed to smallpox, while the remaining eight occurred in Native-American populations that were naïve to the disease at the time. The Native-American outbreaks were close in a spatial and temporal sense. Using Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), we show that the best model includes population-specific R0 values. These differences in R0 values may, in part, be due to differences in genetic background, social structure, or food and water availability. As a result of these inter-population differences, the overall uncertainty associated with the “population average” value of smallpox R0 is larger, a finding that can have important consequences for controlling epidemics. In general, Bayesian hierarchical models are able to properly account for the uncertainty associated with multiple epidemics, provide a clearer understanding of variability in epidemic dynamics, and yield a better assessment of the range of potential risks and consequences that decision makers face. PMID:24021521

The influence of coarse-scale environmental features on current and predicted future distributions of narrow-range endemic crayfish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dyer, Joseph J.; Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas A.; Bergey, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

1.A major limitation to effective management of narrow-range crayfish populations is the paucity of information on the spatial distribution of crayfish species and a general understanding of the interacting environmental variables that drive current and future potential distributional patterns. 2.Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling Software (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current and future potential distributions of four endemic crayfish species in the Ouachita Mountains. Current distributions were modelled using climate, geology, soils, land use, landform and flow variables thought to be important to lotic crayfish. Potential changes in the distribution were forecast by using models trained on current conditions and projecting onto the landscape predicted under climate-change scenarios. 3.The modelled distribution of the four species closely resembled the perceived distribution of each species but also predicted populations in streams and catchments where they had not previously been collected. Soils, elevation and winter precipitation and temperature most strongly related to current distributions and represented 6587% of the predictive power of the models. Model accuracy was high for all models, and model predictions of new populations were verified through additional field sampling. 4.Current models created using two spatial resolutions (1 and 4.5km2) showed that fine-resolution data more accurately represented current distributions. For three of the four species, the 1-km2 resolution models resulted in more conservative predictions. However, the modelled distributional extent of Orconectes leptogonopodus was similar regardless of data resolution. Field validations indicated 1-km2 resolution models were more accurate than 4.5-km2 resolution models. 5.Future projected (4.5-km2 resolution models) model distributions indicated three of the four endemic species would have truncated ranges with low occurrence probabilities under the low-emission scenario, whereas two of four species would be severely restricted in range under moderatehigh emissions. Discrepancies in the two emission scenarios probably relate to the exclusion of behavioural adaptations from species-distribution models. 6.These model predictions illustrate possible impacts of climate change on narrow-range endemic crayfish populations. The predictions do not account for biotic interactions, migration, local habitat conditions or species adaptation. However, we identified the constraining landscape features acting on these populations that provide a framework for addressing habitat needs at a fine scale and developing targeted and systematic monitoring programmes.

Modeling Effects of Groundwater Basin Closure, and Reversal of Closure, on Groundwater Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauloo, R.; Guo, Z.; Fogg, G. E.

2017-12-01

Population growth, the expansion of agriculture, and climate uncertainties have accelerated groundwater pumping and overdraft in aquifers worldwide. In many agricultural basins, a water budget may be stable or not in overdraft, yet disconnected ground and surface water bodies can contribute to the formation of a "closed" basin, where water principally exits the basin as evapotranspiration. Although decreasing water quality associated with increases in Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) have been documented in aquifers across the United States in the past half century, connections between water quality declines and significant changes in hydrologic budgets leading to closed basin formation remain poorly understood. Preliminary results from an analysis with a regional-scale mixing model of the Tulare Lake Basin in California indicate that groundwater salinization resulting from open to closed basin conversion can operate on a decades-to-century long time scale. The only way to reverse groundwater salinization caused by basin closure is to refill the basin and change the hydrologic budget sufficiently for natural groundwater discharge to resume. 3D flow and transport modeling, including the effects of heterogeneity based on a hydrostratigraphic facies model, is used to explore rates and time scales of groundwater salinization and its reversal under different water and land management scenarios. The modeling is also used to ascertain the extent to which local and regional heterogeneity need to be included in order to appropriately upscale the advection-dispersion equation in a basin scale groundwater quality management model. Results imply that persistent managed aquifer recharge may slow groundwater salinization, and complete reversal may be possible at sufficiently high water tables.

Closed-loop regulation of arterial pressure after acute brain death.

PubMed

Soltesz, Kristian; Sjöberg, Trygve; Jansson, Tomas; Johansson, Rolf; Robertsson, Anders; Paskevicius, Audrius; Liao, Quiming; Qin, Guangqi; Steen, Stig

2018-06-01

The purpose of this concept study was to investigate the possibility of automatic mean arterial pressure (MAP) regulation in a porcine heart-beating brain death (BD) model. Hemodynamic stability of BD donors is necessary for maintaining acceptable quality of donated organs for transplantation. Manual stabilization is challenging, due to the lack of vasomotor function in BD donors. Closed-loop stabilization therefore has the potential of increasing availability of acceptable donor organs, and serves to indicate feasibility within less demanding patient groups. A dynamic model of nitroglycerine pharmacology, suitable for controller synthesis, was identified from an experiment involving an anesthetized pig, using a gradient-based output error method. The model was used to synthesize a robust PID controller for hypertension prevention, evaluated in a second experiment, on a second, brain dead, pig. Hypotension was simultaneously prevented using closed-loop controlled infusion of noradrenaline, by means of a previously published controller. A linear model of low order, with variable (uncertain) gain, was sufficient to describe the dynamics to be controlled. The robustly tuned PID controller utilized in the second experiment kept the MAP within a user-defined range. The system was able to prevent hypertension, exceeding a reference of 100 mmHg by more than 10%, during 98% of a 12 h experiment. This early work demonstrates feasibility of the investigated modelling and control synthesis approach, for the purpose of maintaining normotension in a porcine BD model. There remains a need to characterize individual variability, in order to ensure robust performance over the expected population.

Phasic Firing in Vasopressin Cells: Understanding Its Functional Significance through Computational Models

PubMed Central

MacGregor, Duncan J.; Leng, Gareth

2012-01-01

Vasopressin neurons, responding to input generated by osmotic pressure, use an intrinsic mechanism to shift from slow irregular firing to a distinct phasic pattern, consisting of long bursts and silences lasting tens of seconds. With increased input, bursts lengthen, eventually shifting to continuous firing. The phasic activity remains asynchronous across the cells and is not reflected in the population output signal. Here we have used a computational vasopressin neuron model to investigate the functional significance of the phasic firing pattern. We generated a concise model of the synaptic input driven spike firing mechanism that gives a close quantitative match to vasopressin neuron spike activity recorded in vivo, tested against endogenous activity and experimental interventions. The integrate-and-fire based model provides a simple physiological explanation of the phasic firing mechanism involving an activity-dependent slow depolarising afterpotential (DAP) generated by a calcium-inactivated potassium leak current. This is modulated by the slower, opposing, action of activity-dependent dendritic dynorphin release, which inactivates the DAP, the opposing effects generating successive periods of bursting and silence. Model cells are not spontaneously active, but fire when perturbed by random perturbations mimicking synaptic input. We constructed one population of such phasic neurons, and another population of similar cells but which lacked the ability to fire phasically. We then studied how these two populations differed in the way that they encoded changes in afferent inputs. By comparison with the non-phasic population, the phasic population responds linearly to increases in tonic synaptic input. Non-phasic cells respond to transient elevations in synaptic input in a way that strongly depends on background activity levels, phasic cells in a way that is independent of background levels, and show a similar strong linearization of the response. These findings show large differences in information coding between the populations, and apparent functional advantages of asynchronous phasic firing. PMID:23093929

Determination of community structure through deconvolution of PLFA-FAME signature of mixed population.

PubMed

Dey, Dipesh K; Guha, Saumyen

2007-02-15

Phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) as biomarkers are well established in the literature. A general method based on least square approximation (LSA) was developed for the estimation of community structure from the PLFA signature of a mixed population where biomarker PLFA signatures of the component species were known. Fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) standards were used as species analogs and mixture of the standards as representative of the mixed population. The PLFA/FAME signatures were analyzed by gas chromatographic separation, followed by detection in flame ionization detector (GC-FID). The PLFAs in the signature were quantified as relative weight percent of the total PLFA. The PLFA signatures were analyzed by the models to predict community structure of the mixture. The LSA model results were compared with the existing "functional group" approach. Both successfully predicted community structure of mixed population containing completely unrelated species with uncommon PLFAs. For slightest intersection in PLFA signatures of component species, the LSA model produced better results. This was mainly due to inability of the "functional group" approach to distinguish the relative amounts of the common PLFA coming from more than one species. The performance of the LSA model was influenced by errors in the chromatographic analyses. Suppression (or enhancement) of a component's PLFA signature in chromatographic analysis of the mixture, led to underestimation (or overestimation) of the component's proportion in the mixture by the model. In mixtures of closely related species with common PLFAs, the errors in the common components were adjusted across the species by the model.

A spatially explicit estimate of the prewhaling abundance of the endangered North Atlantic right whale.

PubMed

Monsarrat, Sophie; Pennino, M Grazia; Smith, Tim D; Reeves, Randall R; Meynard, Christine N; Kaplan, David M; Rodrigues, Ana S L

2016-08-01

The North Atlantic right whale (NARW) (Eubalaena glacialis) is one of the world's most threatened whales. It came close to extinction after nearly a millennium of exploitation and currently persists as a population of only approximately 500 individuals. Setting appropriate conservation targets for this species requires an understanding of its historical population size, as a baseline for measuring levels of depletion and progress toward recovery. This is made difficult by the scarcity of records over this species' long whaling history. We sought to estimate the preexploitation population size of the North Atlantic right whale and understand how this species was distributed across its range. We used a spatially explicit data set on historical catches of North Pacific right whales (NPRWs) (Eubalaena japonica) to model the relationship between right whale relative density and the environment during the summer feeding season. Assuming the 2 right whale species select similar environments, we projected this model to the North Atlantic to predict how the relative abundance of NARWs varied across their range. We calibrated these relative abundances with estimates of the NPRW total prewhaling population size to obtain high and low estimates for the overall NARW population size prior to exploitation. The model predicted 9,075-21,328 right whales in the North Atlantic. The current NARW population is thus <6% of the historical North Atlantic carrying capacity and has enormous potential for recovery. According to the model, in June-September NARWs concentrated in 2 main feeding areas: east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and in the Norwegian Sea. These 2 areas may become important in the future as feeding grounds and may already be used more regularly by this endangered species than is thought. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Differential influences of local subpopulations on regional diversity and differentiation for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Row, Jeffery R.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Fedy, Brad C.

2016-01-01

The distribution of spatial genetic variation across a region can shape evolutionary dynamics and impact population persistence. Local population dynamics and among-population dispersal rates are strong drivers of this spatial genetic variation, yet for many species we lack a clear understanding of how these population processes interact in space to shape within-species genetic variation. Here, we used extensive genetic and demographic data from 10 subpopulations of greater sage-grouse to parameterize a simulated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) model and (i) test for regional differences in population density and dispersal rates for greater sage-grouse subpopulations in Wyoming, and (ii) quantify how these differences impact subpopulation regional influence on genetic variation. We found a close match between observed and simulated data under our parameterized model and strong variation in density and dispersal rates across Wyoming. Sensitivity analyses suggested that changes in dispersal (via landscape resistance) had a greater influence on regional differentiation, whereas changes in density had a greater influence on mean diversity across all subpopulations. Local subpopulations, however, varied in their regional influence on genetic variation. Decreases in the size and dispersal rates of central populations with low overall and net immigration (i.e. population sources) had the greatest negative impact on genetic variation. Overall, our results provide insight into the interactions among demography, dispersal and genetic variation and highlight the potential of ABC to disentangle the complexity of regional population dynamics and project the genetic impact of changing conditions.

Validation of an aggregate exposure model for substances in consumer products: a case study of diethyl phthalate in personal care products

PubMed Central

Delmaar, Christiaan; Bokkers, Bas; ter Burg, Wouter; Schuur, Gerlienke

2015-01-01

As personal care products (PCPs) are used in close contact with a person, they are a major source of consumer exposure to chemical substances contained in these products. The estimation of realistic consumer exposure to substances in PCPs is currently hampered by the lack of appropriate data and methods. To estimate aggregate exposure of consumers to substances contained in PCPs, a person-oriented consumer exposure model has been developed (the Probabilistic Aggregate Consumer Exposure Model, PACEM). The model simulates daily exposure in a population based on product use data collected from a survey among the Dutch population. The model is validated by comparing diethyl phthalate (DEP) dose estimates to dose estimates based on biomonitoring data. It was found that the model's estimates compared well with the estimates based on biomonitoring data. This suggests that the person-oriented PACEM model is a practical tool for assessing realistic aggregate exposures to substances in PCPs. In the future, PACEM will be extended with use pattern data on other product groups. This will allow for assessing aggregate exposure to substances in consumer products across different product groups. PMID:25352161

Dynamic modelling of costs and health consequences of school closure during an influenza pandemic

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The purpose of this article is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of school closure during a potential influenza pandemic and to examine the trade-off between costs and health benefits for school closure involving different target groups and different closure durations. Methods We developed two models: a dynamic disease model capturing the spread of influenza and an economic model capturing the costs and benefits of school closure. Decisions were based on quality-adjusted life years gained using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. The disease model is an age-structured SEIR compartmental model based on the population of Oslo. We studied the costs and benefits of school closure by varying the age targets (kindergarten, primary school, secondary school) and closure durations (1–10 weeks), given pandemics with basic reproductive number of 1.5, 2.0 or 2.5. Results The cost-effectiveness of school closure varies depending on the target group, duration and whether indirect costs are considered. Using a case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.1-0.2% and with current cost-effectiveness threshold for Norway, closing secondary school is the only cost-effective strategy, when indirect costs are included. The most cost-effective strategies would be closing secondary schools for 8 weeks if R0=1.5, 6 weeks if R0=2.0, and 4 weeks if R0= 2.5. For severe pandemics with case fatality rates of 1-2%, similar to the Spanish flu, or when indirect costs are disregarded, the optimal strategy is closing kindergarten, primary and secondary school for extended periods of time. For a pandemic with 2009 H1N1 characteristics (mild severity and low transmissibility), closing schools would not be cost-effective, regardless of the age target of school children. Conclusions School closure has moderate impact on the epidemic’s scope, but the resulting disruption to society imposes a potentially great cost in terms of lost productivity from parents’ work absenteeism. PMID:23140513

Modeling the growth of individuals in plant populations: local density variation in a strand population of Xanthium strumarium (Asteraceae).

PubMed

Weiner, J; Kinsman, S; Williams, S

1998-11-01

We studied the growth of individual Xanthium strumarium plants growing at four naturally occurring local densities on a beach in Maine: (1) isolated plants, (2) pairs of plants ≤1 cm apart, (3) four plants within 4 cm of each other, and (4) discrete dense clumps of 10-39 plants. A combination of nondestructive measurements every 2 wk and parallel calibration harvests provided very good estimates of the growth in aboveground biomass of over 400 individual plants over 8 wk and afforded the opportunity to fit explicit growth models to 293 of them. There was large individual variation in growth and resultant size within the population and within all densities. Local crowding played a role in determining plant size within the population: there were significant differences in final size between all densities except pairs and quadruples, which were almost identical. Overall, plants growing at higher densities were more variable in growth and final size than plants growing at lower densities, but this was due to increased variation among groups (greater variation in local density and/or greater environmental heterogeneity), not to increased variation within groups. Thus, there was no evidence of size asymmetric competition in this population. The growth of most plants was close to exponential over the study period, but half the plants were slightly better fit by a sigmoidal (logistic) model. The proportion of plants better fit by the logistic model increased with density and with initial plant size. The use of explicit growth models over several growth intervals to describe stand development can provide more biological content and more statistical power than "growth-size" methods that analyze growth intervals separately.

Uncoupling the Effects of Seed Predation and Seed Dispersal by Granivorous Ants on Plant Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Arnan, Xavier; Molowny-Horas, Roberto; Rodrigo, Anselm; Retana, Javier

2012-01-01

Secondary seed dispersal is an important plant-animal interaction, which is central to understanding plant population and community dynamics. Very little information is still available on the effects of dispersal on plant demography and, particularly, for ant-seed dispersal interactions. As many other interactions, seed dispersal by animals involves costs (seed predation) and benefits (seed dispersal), the balance of which determines the outcome of the interaction. Separate quantification of each of them is essential in order to understand the effects of this interaction. To address this issue, we have successfully separated and analyzed the costs and benefits of seed dispersal by seed-harvesting ants on the plant population dynamics of three shrub species with different traits. To that aim a stochastic, spatially-explicit individually-based simulation model has been implemented based on actual data sets. The results from our simulation model agree with theoretical models of plant response dependent on seed dispersal, for one plant species, and ant-mediated seed predation, for another one. In these cases, model predictions were close to the observed values at field. Nonetheless, these ecological processes did not affect in anyway a third species, for which the model predictions were far from the observed values. This indicates that the balance between costs and benefits associated to secondary seed dispersal is clearly related to specific traits. This study is one of the first works that analyze tradeoffs of secondary seed dispersal on plant population dynamics, by disentangling the effects of related costs and benefits. We suggest analyzing the effects of interactions on population dynamics as opposed to merely analyzing the partners and their interaction strength. PMID:22880125

Comparing models on the genealogical relationships among Neandertal, Cro-Magnoid and modern Europeans by serial coalescent simulations.

PubMed

Belle, E M S; Benazzo, A; Ghirotto, S; Colonna, V; Barbujani, G

2009-03-01

Populations of anatomically archaic (Neandertal) and early modern (Cro-Magnoid) humans are jointly documented in the European fossil record, in the period between 40 000 and 25 000 years BP, but the large differences between their cultures, morphologies and DNAs suggest that the two groups were not close relatives. However, it is still unclear whether any genealogical continuity between them can be ruled out. Here, we simulated a broad range of demographic scenarios by means of a serial coalescence algorithm in which Neandertals, Cro-Magnoids and modern Europeans were either part of the same mitochondrial genealogy or of two separate genealogies. Mutation rates, population sizes, population structure and demographic growth rates varied across simulations. All models in which anatomically modern (that is, Cro-Magnoid and current) Europeans belong to a distinct genealogy performed better than any model in which the three groups were assigned to the same mitochondrial genealogy. The maximum admissible level of gene flow between Neandertals and the ancestors of current Europeans is 0.001% per generation, one order of magnitude lower than estimated in previous studies not considering genetic data on Cro-Magnoid people.

Modeling misidentification errors in capture-recapture studies using photographic identification of evolving marks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yoshizaki, J.; Pollock, K.H.; Brownie, C.; Webster, R.A.

2009-01-01

Misidentification of animals is potentially important when naturally existing features (natural tags) are used to identify individual animals in a capture-recapture study. Photographic identification (photoID) typically uses photographic images of animals' naturally existing features as tags (photographic tags) and is subject to two main causes of identification errors: those related to quality of photographs (non-evolving natural tags) and those related to changes in natural marks (evolving natural tags). The conventional methods for analysis of capture-recapture data do not account for identification errors, and to do so requires a detailed understanding of the misidentification mechanism. Focusing on the situation where errors are due to evolving natural tags, we propose a misidentification mechanism and outline a framework for modeling the effect of misidentification in closed population studies. We introduce methods for estimating population size based on this model. Using a simulation study, we show that conventional estimators can seriously overestimate population size when errors due to misidentification are ignored, and that, in comparison, our new estimators have better properties except in cases with low capture probabilities (<0.2) or low misidentification rates (<2.5%). ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

THE COMPONENTS OF KIN COMPETITION

PubMed Central

Van Dyken, J. David

2011-01-01

It is well known that competition among kin alters the rate and often the direction of evolution in subdivided populations. Yet much remains unclear about the ecological and demographic causes of kin competition, or what role life cycle plays in promoting or ameliorating its effects. Using the multilevel Price equation, I derive a general equation for evolution in structured populations under an arbitrary intensity of kin competition. This equation partitions the effects of selection and demography, and recovers numerous previous models as special cases. I quantify the degree of kin competition, α, which explicitly depends on life cycle. I show how life cycle and demographic assumptions can be incorporated into kin selection models via α, revealing life cycles that are more or less permissive of altruism. As an example, I give closed-form results for Hamilton’s rule in a three-stage life cycle. Although results are sensitive to life cycle in general, I identify three demographic conditions that give life cycle invariant results. Under the infinite island model, α is a function of the scale of density regulation and dispersal rate, effectively disentangling these two phenomena. Population viscosity per se does not impede kin selection. PMID:20482610

An Analysis on the Unemployment Rate in the Philippines: A Time Series Data Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrutia, J. D.; Tampis, R. L.; E Atienza, JB

2017-03-01

This study aims to formulate a mathematical model for forecasting and estimating unemployment rate in the Philippines. Also, factors which can predict the unemployment is to be determined among the considered variables namely Labor Force Rate, Population, Inflation Rate, Gross Domestic Product, and Gross National Income. Granger-causal relationship and integration among the dependent and independent variables are also examined using Pairwise Granger-causality test and Johansen Cointegration Test. The data used were acquired from the Philippine Statistics Authority, National Statistics Office, and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. Following the Box-Jenkins method, the formulated model for forecasting the unemployment rate is SARIMA (6, 1, 5) × (0, 1, 1)4 with a coefficient of determination of 0.79. The actual values are 99 percent identical to the predicted values obtained through the model, and are 72 percent closely relative to the forecasted ones. According to the results of the regression analysis, Labor Force Rate and Population are the significant factors of unemployment rate. Among the independent variables, Population, GDP, and GNI showed to have a granger-causal relationship with unemployment. It is also found that there are at least four cointegrating relations between the dependent and independent variables.

Error catastrophe and phase transition in the empirical fitness landscape of HIV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Gregory R.; Ferguson, Andrew L.

2015-03-01

We have translated clinical sequence databases of the p6 HIV protein into an empirical fitness landscape quantifying viral replicative capacity as a function of the amino acid sequence. We show that the viral population resides close to a phase transition in sequence space corresponding to an "error catastrophe" beyond which there is lethal accumulation of mutations. Our model predicts that the phase transition may be induced by drug therapies that elevate the mutation rate, or by forcing mutations at particular amino acids. Applying immune pressure to any combination of killer T-cell targets cannot induce the transition, providing a rationale for why the viral protein can exist close to the error catastrophe without sustaining fatal fitness penalties due to adaptive immunity.

Genetic demixing and evolution in linear stepping stone models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korolev, K. S.; Avlund, Mikkel; Hallatschek, Oskar; Nelson, David R.

2010-04-01

Results for mutation, selection, genetic drift, and migration in a one-dimensional continuous population are reviewed and extended. The population is described by a continuous limit of the stepping stone model, which leads to the stochastic Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piscounov equation with additional terms describing mutations. Although the stepping stone model was first proposed for population genetics, it is closely related to “voter models” of interest in nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. The stepping stone model can also be regarded as an approximation to the dynamics of a thin layer of actively growing pioneers at the frontier of a colony of micro-organisms undergoing a range expansion on a Petri dish. The population tends to segregate into monoallelic domains. This segregation slows down genetic drift and selection because these two evolutionary forces can only act at the boundaries between the domains; the effects of mutation, however, are not significantly affected by the segregation. Although fixation in the neutral well-mixed (or “zero-dimensional”) model occurs exponentially in time, it occurs only algebraically fast in the one-dimensional model. An unusual sublinear increase is also found in the variance of the spatially averaged allele frequency with time. If selection is weak, selective sweeps occur exponentially fast in both well-mixed and one-dimensional populations, but the time constants are different. The relatively unexplored problem of evolutionary dynamics at the edge of an expanding circular colony is studied as well. Also reviewed are how the observed patterns of genetic diversity can be used for statistical inference and the differences are highlighted between the well-mixed and one-dimensional models. Although the focus is on two alleles or variants, q -allele Potts-like models of gene segregation are considered as well. Most of the analytical results are checked with simulations and could be tested against recent spatial experiments on range expansions of inoculations of Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

The bud break process and its variation among local populations of boreal black spruce.

PubMed

Rossi, Sergio; Bousquet, Jean

2014-01-01

Phenology of local populations can exhibit adaptations to the current environmental conditions resulting from a close interaction between climate and genotype. The bud break process and its variations among populations were analyzed in greenhouse by monitoring the growth resumption in black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] seedlings originating from seeds of five stands across the closed boreal forest in Quebec, Canada. Bud break lasted 15 days and occurred earlier and quicker in northern provenances. Provenance explained between 10.2 and 32.3% of the variance in bud break, while the families accounted for a smaller but still significant part of the variance. The late occurrence of one phenological phase corresponded to a delayed occurrence of the others according to linear relationships. A causal model was proposed in the form of a chain of events with each phase of bud break being related to the previous and successive one, while no link was observed between non-adjacent phases. The adaptation of black spruce populations along the latitudinal gradient points toward a strategy based on rapid physiological processes triggered by temperature increase inducing high metabolic activity. The variation observed in bud break reflects an evolutionary trade-off between maximization of security and taking advantage of the short growing season. This work provides evidence of the phenological adaptations of black spruce to its local environmental conditions while retaining sizeable genetic diversity within populations. Because of the multigenic nature of phenology, this diversity should provide some raw material for adaptation to changing local environmental conditions.

The bud break process and its variation among local populations of boreal black spruce

PubMed Central

Rossi, Sergio; Bousquet, Jean

2014-01-01

Phenology of local populations can exhibit adaptations to the current environmental conditions resulting from a close interaction between climate and genotype. The bud break process and its variations among populations were analyzed in greenhouse by monitoring the growth resumption in black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] seedlings originating from seeds of five stands across the closed boreal forest in Quebec, Canada. Bud break lasted 15 days and occurred earlier and quicker in northern provenances. Provenance explained between 10.2 and 32.3% of the variance in bud break, while the families accounted for a smaller but still significant part of the variance. The late occurrence of one phenological phase corresponded to a delayed occurrence of the others according to linear relationships. A causal model was proposed in the form of a chain of events with each phase of bud break being related to the previous and successive one, while no link was observed between non-adjacent phases. The adaptation of black spruce populations along the latitudinal gradient points toward a strategy based on rapid physiological processes triggered by temperature increase inducing high metabolic activity. The variation observed in bud break reflects an evolutionary trade-off between maximization of security and taking advantage of the short growing season. This work provides evidence of the phenological adaptations of black spruce to its local environmental conditions while retaining sizeable genetic diversity within populations. Because of the multigenic nature of phenology, this diversity should provide some raw material for adaptation to changing local environmental conditions. PMID:25389430

A restoration genetics guide for coral reef conservation.

PubMed

Baums, Iliana B

2008-06-01

Worldwide degradation of coral reef communities has prompted a surge in restoration efforts. They proceed largely without considering genetic factors because traditionally, coral populations have been regarded as open over large areas with little potential for local adaptation. Since, biophysical and molecular studies indicated that most populations are closed over shorter time and smaller spatial scales. Thus, it is justified to re-examine the potential for site adaptation in corals. There is ample evidence for differentiated populations, inbreeding, asexual reproduction and the occurrence of ecotypes, factors that may facilitate local adaptation. Discovery of widespread local adaptation would influence coral restoration projects mainly with regard to the physical and evolutionary distance from the source wild and/or captive bred propagules may be moved without causing a loss of fitness in the restored population. Proposed causes for loss of fitness as a result of (plant) restoration efforts include founder effects, genetic swamping, inbreeding and/or outbreeding depression. Direct evidence for any of these processes is scarce in reef corals due to a lack of model species that allow for testing over multiple generations and the separation of the relative contributions of algal symbionts and their coral hosts to the overall performance of the coral colony. This gap in our knowledge may be closed by employing novel population genetic and genomics approaches. The use of molecular tools may aid managers in the selection of appropriate propagule sources, guide spatial arrangement of transplants, and help in assessing the success of coral restoration projects by tracking the performance of transplants, thereby generating important data for future coral reef conservation and restoration projects.

A less field-intensive robust design for estimating demographic parameters with Mark-resight data

USGS Publications Warehouse

McClintock, B.T.; White, Gary C.

2009-01-01

The robust design has become popular among animal ecologists as a means for estimating population abundance and related demographic parameters with mark-recapture data. However, two drawbacks of traditional mark-recapture are financial cost and repeated disturbance to animals. Mark-resight methodology may in many circumstances be a less expensive and less invasive alternative to mark-recapture, but the models developed to date for these data have overwhelmingly concentrated only on the estimation of abundance. Here we introduce a mark-resight model analogous to that used in mark-recapture for the simultaneous estimation of abundance, apparent survival, and transition probabilities between observable and unobservable states. The model may be implemented using standard statistical computing software, but it has also been incorporated into the freeware package Program MARK. We illustrate the use of our model with mainland New Zealand Robin (Petroica australis) data collected to ascertain whether this methodology may be a reliable alternative for monitoring endangered populations of a closely related species inhabiting the Chatham Islands. We found this method to be a viable alternative to traditional mark-recapture when cost or disturbance to species is of particular concern in long-term population monitoring programs. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Linkage disequilibrium analysis in young populations: Pseudo-vitamin D-deficiency rickets and the founder effect in French Canadians

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Labuda, M.; Glorieux, F.H.; Labuda, D.

1996-09-01

Pseudo-vitamin D-deficiency rickets (PDDR) was mapped close to D12S90 and between proximal D12S312 and distal (D12S305, D12S104) microsatellites that were subsequently found on a single YAC clone. Analysis of a complex haplotype in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with the disease discriminated among distinct founder effects in French Canadian populations in Acadia and in Charlevoix-Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean (Ch-SLSJ), as well as an earlier one in precolonial Europe. A simple demographic model suggested the historical age of the founder effect in Ch-SLSJ to be {approximately}12 generations. The corresponding LD data are consistent with this figure when they are analyzed within the framework of Luria-Delbruck model,more » which takes into account the population growth. Population sampling due to a limited number of first settlers and the rapid demographic expansion appear to have played a major role in the founding of PDDR in Ch-SLSJ and, presumably, other genetic disorders endemic to French Canada. Similarly, the founder effect in Ashkenazim, coinciding with their early settlement in medieval Poland and subsequent expansion eastward, could explain the origin of frequent genetic diseases in this population. 48 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Are plague pits of particular use to palaeoepidemiologists?

PubMed

Waldron, H A

2001-02-01

The demography and pattern of disease of skeletal assemblages may not accurately reflect those of the living population of which they were once a part. The hypothesis tested here was that skeletons from a mass disaster would more closely approximate to a living population than those from a conventional cemetery. Six hundred skeletons recovered from a Black Death plague pit in London were compared with 236 skeletons recovered from an overlying medieval cemetery. Age and sex were determined by standard anthropological means by a single observer and adjustments were made to correct for those skeletons for which either or both could not be established. An estimate of age structure of the living medieval population of London was made, using model life tables. The age and sex distribution and the pattern of disease in the Black Death skeletons did not differ substantially from those in the control group of skeletons. Both assemblages tended to overestimate the numbers in the younger age groups of the model population and underestimate the numbers in the oldest age group. On the evidence from this single site, a skeletal assemblage from a mass disaster does not provide a better representation of the living population from which it was derived than that from a conventional cemetery.

WFPC2 Observations of Star Clusters in the Magellanic Clouds. Report 2; The Oldest Star Clusters in the Small Magellanic Cloud

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mighell, Kenneth J.; Sarajedini, Ata; French, Rica S.

1998-01-01

We present our analysis of archival Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) observations in F45OW ( approximately B) and F555W (approximately V) of the intermediate-age populous star clusters NGC 121, NGC 339, NGC 361, NGC 416, and Kron 3 in the Small Magellanic Cloud. We use published photometry of two other SMC populous star clusters, Lindsay 1 and Lindsay 113, to investigate the age sequence of these seven populous star clusters in order to improve our understanding of the formation chronology of the SMC. We analyzed the V vs B-V and M(sub V) vs (B-V)(sub 0) color-magnitude diagrams of these populous Small Magellanic Cloud star clusters using a variety of techniques and determined their ages, metallicities, and reddenings. These new data enable us to improve the age-metallicity relation of star clusters in the Small Magellanic Cloud. In particular, we find that a closed-box continuous star-formation model does not reproduce the age-metallicity relation adequately. However, a theoretical model punctuated by bursts of star formation is in better agreement with the observational data presented herein.

Using Approximate Bayesian Computation to Probe Multiple Transiting Planet Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morehead, Robert C.

2015-08-01

The large number of multiple transiting planet systems (MTPS) uncovered with Kepler suggest a population of well-aligned planetary systems. Previously, the distribution of transit duration ratios in MTPSs has been used to place constraints on the distributions of mutual orbital inclinations and orbital eccentricities in these systems. However, degeneracies with the underlying number of planets in these systems pose added challenges and make explicit likelihood functions intractable. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) offers an intriguing path forward. In its simplest form, ABC proposes from a prior on the population parameters to produce synthetic datasets via a physically-motivated model. Samples are accepted or rejected based on how close they come to reproducing the actual observed dataset to some tolerance. The accepted samples then form a robust and useful approximation of the true posterior distribution of the underlying population parameters. We will demonstrate the utility of ABC in exoplanet populations by presenting new constraints on the mutual inclination and eccentricity distributions in the Kepler MTPSs. We will also introduce Simple-ABC, a new open-source Python package designed for ease of use and rapid specification of general models, suitable for use in a wide variety of applications in both exoplanet science and astrophysics as a whole.

Evolutionary games with self-questioning adaptive mechanism and the Ising model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, J.; Xu, C.; Hui, P. M.

2017-09-01

A class of evolutionary games using a self-questioning strategy switching mechanism played in a population of connected agents is shown to behave as an Ising model Hamiltonian of spins connected in the same way. The payoff parameters combine to give the coupling between spins and an external magnetic field. The mapping covers the prisoner's dilemma, snowdrift and stag hunt games in structured populations. A well-mixed system is used to illustrate the equivalence. In a chain of agents/spins, the mapping to Ising model leads to an exact solution to the games effortlessly. The accuracy of standard approximations on the games can then be quantified. The site approximation is found to show varied accuracies depending on the payoff parameters, and the link approximation is shown to give the exact result in a chain but not in a closed form. The mapping established here connects two research areas, with each having much to offer to the other.

Utterance selection model of language change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baxter, G. J.; Blythe, R. A.; Croft, W.; McKane, A. J.

2006-04-01

We present a mathematical formulation of a theory of language change. The theory is evolutionary in nature and has close analogies with theories of population genetics. The mathematical structure we construct similarly has correspondences with the Fisher-Wright model of population genetics, but there are significant differences. The continuous time formulation of the model is expressed in terms of a Fokker-Planck equation. This equation is exactly soluble in the case of a single speaker and can be investigated analytically in the case of multiple speakers who communicate equally with all other speakers and give their utterances equal weight. Whilst the stationary properties of this system have much in common with the single-speaker case, time-dependent properties are richer. In the particular case where linguistic forms can become extinct, we find that the presence of many speakers causes a two-stage relaxation, the first being a common marginal distribution that persists for a long time as a consequence of ultimate extinction being due to rare fluctuations.

Holliday Junction Thermodynamics and Structure: Coarse-Grained Simulations and Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wujie; Nocka, Laura M.; Wiemann, Brianne Z.; Hinckley, Daniel M.; Mukerji, Ishita; Starr, Francis W.

2016-03-01

Holliday junctions play a central role in genetic recombination, DNA repair and other cellular processes. We combine simulations and experiments to evaluate the ability of the 3SPN.2 model, a coarse-grained representation designed to mimic B-DNA, to predict the properties of DNA Holliday junctions. The model reproduces many experimentally determined aspects of junction structure and stability, including the temperature dependence of melting on salt concentration, the bias between open and stacked conformations, the relative populations of conformers at high salt concentration, and the inter-duplex angle (IDA) between arms. We also obtain a close correspondence between the junction structure evaluated by all-atom and coarse-grained simulations. We predict that, for salt concentrations at physiological and higher levels, the populations of the stacked conformers are independent of salt concentration, and directly observe proposed tetrahedral intermediate sub-states implicated in conformational transitions. Our findings demonstrate that the 3SPN.2 model captures junction properties that are inaccessible to all-atom studies, opening the possibility to simulate complex aspects of junction behavior.

Synthetic Quorum Sensing and Induced Aggregation in Model Microcapsule Colonies with Repressilator Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shum, Henry; Yashin, Victor; Balazs, Anna

We model a system of synthetic microcapsules that communicate chemically by releasing nanoparticles or signaling molecules. These signaling species bind to receptors on the shells of capsules and modulate the target shell's permeability, thereby controlling nanoparticle release from the target capsule. Using the repressilator regulatory network motif, whereby three species suppress the production of the next in a cyclic fashion, we show that large amplitude oscillations in nanoparticle release can emerge when many capsules are close together. This exemplifies quorum sensing, which is the ability of cells to gauge their population density and collectively initiate a new behavior once a critical density is reached. We present a physically realizable model in which the oscillations exhibited in crowded populations induce aggregation of the microcapsules, mimicking complex biological behavior of the slime mold Dictyostelium discoideum with only simple, synthetic components. We also show that the clusters can be dispersed and reformed repeatedly and controllably by addition of chemical stimuli, demonstrating possible applications in creating reconfigurable or programmable materials.

Identity-by-Descent-Based Phasing and Imputation in Founder Populations Using Graphical Models

PubMed Central

Palin, Kimmo; Campbell, Harry; Wright, Alan F; Wilson, James F; Durbin, Richard

2011-01-01

Accurate knowledge of haplotypes, the combination of alleles co-residing on a single copy of a chromosome, enables powerful gene mapping and sequence imputation methods. Since humans are diploid, haplotypes must be derived from genotypes by a phasing process. In this study, we present a new computational model for haplotype phasing based on pairwise sharing of haplotypes inferred to be Identical-By-Descent (IBD). We apply the Bayesian network based model in a new phasing algorithm, called systematic long-range phasing (SLRP), that can capitalize on the close genetic relationships in isolated founder populations, and show with simulated and real genome-wide genotype data that SLRP substantially reduces the rate of phasing errors compared to previous phasing algorithms. Furthermore, the method accurately identifies regions of IBD, enabling linkage-like studies without pedigrees, and can be used to impute most genotypes with very low error rate. Genet. Epidemiol. 2011. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.35:853-860, 2011 PMID:22006673

Rates and equilibrium constants of the ligand-induced conformational transition of an HCN ion channel protein domain determined by DEER spectroscopy.

PubMed

Collauto, Alberto; DeBerg, Hannah A; Kaufmann, Royi; Zagotta, William N; Stoll, Stefan; Goldfarb, Daniella

2017-06-14

Ligand binding can induce significant conformational changes in proteins. The mechanism of this process couples equilibria associated with the ligand binding event and the conformational change. Here we show that by combining the application of W-band double electron-electron resonance (DEER) spectroscopy with microfluidic rapid freeze quench (μRFQ) it is possible to resolve these processes and obtain both equilibrium constants and reaction rates. We studied the conformational transition of the nitroxide labeled, isolated carboxy-terminal cyclic-nucleotide binding domain (CNBD) of the HCN2 ion channel upon binding of the ligand 3',5'-cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP). Using model-based global analysis, the time-resolved data of the μRFQ DEER experiments directly provide fractional populations of the open and closed conformations as a function of time. We modeled the ligand-induced conformational change in the protein using a four-state model: apo/open (AO), apo/closed (AC), bound/open (BO), bound/closed (BC). These species interconvert according to AC + L ⇌ AO + L ⇌ BO ⇌ BC. By analyzing the concentration dependence of the relative contributions of the closed and open conformations at equilibrium, we estimated the equilibrium constants for the two conformational equilibria and the open-state ligand dissociation constant. Analysis of the time-resolved μRFQ DEER data gave estimates for the intrinsic rates of ligand binding and unbinding as well as the rates of the conformational change. This demonstrates that DEER can quantitatively resolve both the thermodynamics and the kinetics of ligand binding and the associated conformational change.

Inferring population structure and demographic history using Y-STR data from worldwide populations.

PubMed

Xu, Hongyang; Wang, Chuan-Chao; Shrestha, Rukesh; Wang, Ling-Xiang; Zhang, Manfei; He, Yungang; Kidd, Judith R; Kidd, Kenneth K; Jin, Li; Li, Hui

2015-02-01

The Y chromosome is one of the best genetic materials to explore the evolutionary history of human populations. Global analyses of Y chromosomal short tandem repeats (STRs) data can reveal very interesting world population structures and histories. However, previous Y-STR works tended to focus on small geographical ranges or only included limited sample sizes. In this study, we have investigated population structure and demographic history using 17 Y chromosomal STRs data of 979 males from 44 worldwide populations. The largest genetic distances have been observed between pairs of African and non-African populations. American populations with the lowest genetic diversities also showed large genetic distances and coancestry coefficients with other populations, whereas Eurasian populations displayed close genetic affinities. African populations tend to have the oldest time to the most recent common ancestors (TMRCAs), the largest effective population sizes and the earliest expansion times, whereas the American, Siberian, Melanesian, and isolated Atayal populations have the most recent TMRCAs and expansion times, and the smallest effective population sizes. This clear geographic pattern is well consistent with serial founder model for the origin of populations outside Africa. The Y-STR dataset presented here provides the most detailed view of worldwide population structure and human male demographic history, and additionally will be of great benefit to future forensic applications and population genetic studies.

Condition index monitoring supports conservation priorities for the protection of threatened grass-finch populations

PubMed Central

French, Kristine; Legge, Sarah; Astheimer, Lee; Garnett, Stephen

2015-01-01

Abstract Conservation agencies are often faced with the difficult task of prioritizing what recovery actions receive support. With the number of species under threat of decline growing globally, research that informs conservation priorities is greatly needed. The relative vulnerability of cryptic or nomadic species is often uncertain, because populations are difficult to monitor and local populations often seem stable in the short term. This uncertainty can lead to inaction when populations are in need of protection. We tested the feasibility of using differences in condition indices as an indication of population vulnerability to decline for related threatened Australian finch sub-species. The Gouldian finch represents a relatively well-studied endangered species, which has a seasonal and site-specific pattern of condition index variation that differs from the closely related non-declining long-tailed finch. We used Gouldian and long-tailed finch condition variation as a model to compare with lesser studied, threatened star and black-throated finches. We compared body condition (fat and muscle scores), haematocrit and stress levels (corticosterone) among populations, seasons and years to determine whether lesser studied finch populations matched the model of an endangered species or a non-declining species. While vulnerable finch populations often had lower muscle and higher fat and corticosterone concentrations during moult (seasonal pattern similar to Gouldian finches), haematocrit values did not differ among populations in a predictable way. Star and black-throated finch populations, which were predicted to be vulnerable to decline, showed evidence of poor condition during moult, supporting their status as vulnerable. Our findings highlight how measures of condition can provide insight into the relative vulnerability of animal and plant populations to decline and will allow the prioritization of efforts towards the populations most likely to be in jeopardy of extinction. PMID:27293710

Condition index monitoring supports conservation priorities for the protection of threatened grass-finch populations.

PubMed

Maute, Kimberly; French, Kristine; Legge, Sarah; Astheimer, Lee; Garnett, Stephen

2015-01-01

Conservation agencies are often faced with the difficult task of prioritizing what recovery actions receive support. With the number of species under threat of decline growing globally, research that informs conservation priorities is greatly needed. The relative vulnerability of cryptic or nomadic species is often uncertain, because populations are difficult to monitor and local populations often seem stable in the short term. This uncertainty can lead to inaction when populations are in need of protection. We tested the feasibility of using differences in condition indices as an indication of population vulnerability to decline for related threatened Australian finch sub-species. The Gouldian finch represents a relatively well-studied endangered species, which has a seasonal and site-specific pattern of condition index variation that differs from the closely related non-declining long-tailed finch. We used Gouldian and long-tailed finch condition variation as a model to compare with lesser studied, threatened star and black-throated finches. We compared body condition (fat and muscle scores), haematocrit and stress levels (corticosterone) among populations, seasons and years to determine whether lesser studied finch populations matched the model of an endangered species or a non-declining species. While vulnerable finch populations often had lower muscle and higher fat and corticosterone concentrations during moult (seasonal pattern similar to Gouldian finches), haematocrit values did not differ among populations in a predictable way. Star and black-throated finch populations, which were predicted to be vulnerable to decline, showed evidence of poor condition during moult, supporting their status as vulnerable. Our findings highlight how measures of condition can provide insight into the relative vulnerability of animal and plant populations to decline and will allow the prioritization of efforts towards the populations most likely to be in jeopardy of extinction.

Wnt-Responsive Cancer Stem Cells Are Located Close to Distorted Blood Vessels and Not in Hypoxic Regions in a p53-Null Mouse Model of Human Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Landua, John D.; Bu, Wen; Wei, Wei; Li, Fuhai; Wong, Stephen T.C.; Dickinson, Mary E.; Rosen, Jeffrey M.; Lewis, Michael T.

2014-01-01

Cancer stem cells (CSCs, or tumor-initiating cells) may be responsible for tumor formation in many types of cancer, including breast cancer. Using high-resolution imaging techniques, we analyzed the relationship between a Wnt-responsive, CSC-enriched population and the tumor vasculature using p53-null mouse mammary tumors transduced with a lentiviral Wnt signaling reporter. Consistent with their localization in the normal mammary gland, Wnt-responsive cells in tumors were enriched in the basal/myoepithelial population and generally located in close proximity to blood vessels. The Wnt-responsive CSCs did not colocalize with the hypoxia-inducible factor 1α-positive cells in these p53-null basal-like tumors. Average vessel diameter and vessel tortuosity were increased in p53-null mouse tumors, as well as in a human tumor xenograft as compared with the normal mammary gland. The combined strategy of monitoring the fluorescently labeled CSCs and vasculature using high-resolution imaging techniques provides a unique opportunity to study the CSC and its surrounding vasculature. PMID:24797826

Fishing diseased abalone to promote yield and conservation

PubMed Central

Ben-Horin, Tal; Bidegain, Gorka; Lenihan, Hunter S.

2016-01-01

Past theoretical models suggest fishing disease-impacted stocks can reduce parasite transmission, but this is a good management strategy only when the exploitation required to reduce transmission does not overfish the stock. We applied this concept to a red abalone fishery so impacted by an infectious disease (withering syndrome) that stock densities plummeted and managers closed the fishery. In addition to the non-selective fishing strategy considered by past disease-fishing models, we modelled targeting (culling) infected individuals, which is plausible in red abalone because modern diagnostic tools can determine infection without harming landed abalone and the diagnostic cost is minor relative to the catch value. The non-selective abalone fishing required to eradicate parasites exceeded thresholds for abalone sustainability, but targeting infected abalone allowed the fishery to generate yield and reduce parasite prevalence while maintaining stock densities at or above the densities attainable if the population was closed to fishing. The effect was strong enough that stock and yield increased even when the catch was one-third uninfected abalone. These results could apply to other fisheries as the diagnostic costs decline relative to catch value. PMID:26880843

Fishing diseased abalone to promote yield and conservation.

PubMed

Ben-Horin, Tal; Lafferty, Kevin D; Bidegain, Gorka; Lenihan, Hunter S

2016-03-05

Past theoretical models suggest fishing disease-impacted stocks can reduce parasite transmission, but this is a good management strategy only when the exploitation required to reduce transmission does not overfish the stock. We applied this concept to a red abalone fishery so impacted by an infectious disease (withering syndrome) that stock densities plummeted and managers closed the fishery. In addition to the non-selective fishing strategy considered by past disease-fishing models, we modelled targeting (culling) infected individuals, which is plausible in red abalone because modern diagnostic tools can determine infection without harming landed abalone and the diagnostic cost is minor relative to the catch value. The non-selective abalone fishing required to eradicate parasites exceeded thresholds for abalone sustainability, but targeting infected abalone allowed the fishery to generate yield and reduce parasite prevalence while maintaining stock densities at or above the densities attainable if the population was closed to fishing. The effect was strong enough that stock and yield increased even when the catch was one-third uninfected abalone. These results could apply to other fisheries as the diagnostic costs decline relative to catch value. © 2016 The Author(s).

Fishing diseased abalone to promote yield and conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ben-Horin, Tal; Lafferty, Kevin D.; Bidegain, Gorka; Lenihan, Hunter S.

2016-01-01

Past theoretical models suggest fishing disease-impacted stocks can reduce parasite transmission, but this is a good management strategy only when the exploitation required to reduce transmission does not overfish the stock. We applied this concept to a red abalone fishery so impacted by an infectious disease (withering syndrome) that stock densities plummeted and managers closed the fishery. In addition to the non-selective fishing strategy considered by past disease-fishing models, we modelled targeting (culling) infected individuals, which is plausible in red abalone because modern diagnostic tools can determine infection without harming landed abalone and the diagnostic cost is minor relative to the catch value. The non-selective abalone fishing required to eradicate parasites exceeded thresholds for abalone sustainability, but targeting infected abalone allowed the fishery to generate yield and reduce parasite prevalence while maintaining stock densities at or above the densities attainable if the population was closed to fishing. The effect was strong enough that stock and yield increased even when the catch was one-third uninfected abalone. These results could apply to other fisheries as the diagnostic costs decline relative to catch value.

Use of Photo-Identification and Mark-Recapture Methodology to Assess Basking Shark (Cetorhinus maximus) Populations

PubMed Central

Gore, Mauvis A.; Frey, Peter H.; Ormond, Rupert F.; Allan, Holly; Gilkes, Gabriella

2016-01-01

Following centuries of exploitation, basking sharks (Cetorhinus maximus) are considered by IUCN as Endangered in the Northeast Atlantic, where they have now been substantially protected for over two decades. However, the present size of this population remains unknown. We investigated the use of photo-identification of individuals’ dorsal fins, combined with mark-recapture methodology, to investigate the size of populations of basking shark within the west coast of Scotland. From a total of 921 encounters photographed between 2004 and 2011, 710 sharks were found to be individually identifiable based on dorsal fin damage and natural features. Of these, only 41 individuals were re-sighted, most commonly both within days of, and close to the site of, the initial encounter. A smaller number were re-sighted after longer periods of up to two years. A comparison of the distinguishing features of individuals on first recording and subsequent re-sighting showed that in almost all cases these features remained little changed, suggesting the low re-sighting rate was not due to a loss of distinguishing features. Because of the low number of re-sighting we were not able to produce reliable estimates for the long-term regional population. However, for one 50 km diameter study area between the islands of Mull, Coll and Tiree, we were able to generate closed-population estimates for 6–9 day periods in 2010 of 985 (95% CI = 494–1683), and in 2011 of 201 (95% CI = 143–340). For the same 2011 period an open-population model generated a similar estimate of 213 (95% CI = 111–317). Otherwise the low rate and temporal patterning of re-sightings support the view that such local basking shark populations are temporary, dynamic groupings of individuals drawn from a much larger regional population than previously supposed. The study demonstrated the feasibility and limitations of photo-identification as a non-invasive technique for identifying individual basking sharks. PMID:26930611

Migration ecology and stopover population size of Red Knots Calidris canutus rufa at Mingan Archipelago after exiting the breeding grounds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyons, James E.; Baker, Allan J.; González, Patricia M.; Aubry, Yves; Buidin, Christophe; Rochepault, Yann

2018-01-01

Populations of migratory birds present unique conservation challenges given the often vast distances separating critical resources throughout the annual cycle. Migration areas close to the breeding grounds represent a link between two key stages of the annual cycle, and understanding migration ecology as birds exit the breeding grounds may be particularly informative for successful conservation. We studied migration phenology and stopover ecology of an endangered subspecies of the Red Knot Calidris canutus rufa at a migration area relatively close to its breeding range. Using mark-recapture/resight data and a Jolly-Seber model for open populations, we described the arrival and departure schedules, stopover duration, and passage population size at the Mingan Archipelago, Quebec, Canada. Red Knots arrived at the study area in two distinct waves of birds separated by approximately 22 days. Nearly 30% of the passage population arrived in the first wave of arrivals during 15–18 July, and approximately 22% arrived in a second wave during 8–11 August. The sex-ratio in the stopover population at the time of the first wave was slightly skewed toward females, whereas the second wave was heavily skewed toward males. Because males remain on the breeding grounds to care for young, this may reflect successfulbreeding in the year of our study. The estimated stopover duration (population mean) was 11 days (95% credible interval: 10.3–11.7 days), but stopover persistence was variable throughout the season. We estimated a passage population size of 9,450 birds (8,355–10,710), a minimum estimate for reasons related to the duration of our sampling. Mingan Archipelago is thus an important migration area for this endangered subspecies and could be a priority in conservation planning. Our results also emphasize the advantages of mark-recapture/resight approaches for estimating migration phenology and stopover persistence.

The significance of cultural patterning for the "alcoholic family".

PubMed

Ablon, J

1980-06-01

This paper presents findings from a recent study of a population of middle-class Catholic families, primarily Irish, German, and Italian, among whom alcohol-related problems are frequent and severe. To understand alcohol usage in this population, a knowledge of the historical and cultural roles of drinking in the relevant ethnic or national groups and a holistic view of contemporary family life are essential. It is suggested that massive social controls in major areas of family life are closely related to problematic drinking behavior. The delineation of cultural prescriptions regarding behaviors and attitudes directly and indirectly related to drinking patterns may contribute a significant cultural dimension to proposed models of the "alcoholic family" system.

IMa2p - Parallel MCMC and inference of ancient demography under the Isolation with Migration (IM) model

PubMed Central

Sethuraman, Arun; Hey, Jody

2015-01-01

IMa2 and related programs are used to study the divergence of closely related species and of populations within species. These methods are based on the sampling of genealogies using MCMC, and they can proceed quite slowly for larger data sets. We describe a parallel implementation, called IMa2p, that provides a nearly linear increase in genealogy sampling rate with the number of processors in use. IMa2p is written in OpenMPI and C++, and scales well for demographic analyses of a large number of loci and populations, which are difficult to study using the serial version of the program. PMID:26059786

Adaptive harvest management of North American waterfowl populations: a brief history and future prospects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Runge, M.C.; Johnson, F.A.; Williams, B.K.

2007-01-01

Since 1995, the US Fish and Wildlife Service has used an adaptive approach to the management of sport harvest of mid-continent Mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos) in North America. This approach differs from many current approaches to conservation and management in requiring close collaboration between managers and scientists. Key elements of this process are objectives, alternative management actions, models permitting prediction of system responses, and a monitoring program. The iterative process produces optimal management decisions and leads to reduction in uncertainty about response of populations to management. This general approach to management has a number of desirable features and is recommended for use in many other programs of management and conservation.

In Vitro Model Simulating Gastro-Intestinal Digestion in the Pediatric Population (Neonates and Young Infants).

PubMed

Kamstrup, Danna; Berthelsen, Ragna; Sassene, Philip Jonas; Selen, Arzu; Müllertz, Anette

2017-02-01

The focus on drug delivery for the pediatric population has been steadily increasing in the last decades. In terms of developing in vitro models simulating characteristics of the targeted pediatric population, with the purpose of predicting drug product performance after oral administration, it is important to simulate the gastro-intestinal conditions and processes the drug will encounter upon oral administration. When a drug is administered in the fed state, which is commonly the case for neonates, as they are typically fed every 3 h, the digestion of the milk will affect the composition of the fluid available for drug dissolution/solubilization. Therefore, in order to predict the solubilized amount of drug available for absorption, an in vitro model simulating digestion in the gastro-intestinal tract should be utilized. In order to simulate the digestion process and the drug solubilization taking place in vivo, the following aspects should be considered; physiologically relevant media, media volume, use of physiological enzymes in proper amounts, as well as correct pH and addition of relevant co-factors, e.g., bile salts and co-enzymes. Furthermore, physiological transit times and appropriate mixing should be considered and mimicked as close as possible. This paper presents a literature review on physiological factors relevant for digestion and drug solubilization in neonates. Based on the available literature data, a novel in vitro digestion model simulating digestion and drug solubilization in the neonate and young infant pediatric population (2 months old and younger) was designed.

Association of Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor and Vitamin D with Depression and Obesity: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Goltz, Annemarie; Janowitz, Deborah; Hannemann, Anke; Nauck, Matthias; Hoffmann, Johanna; Seyfart, Tom; Völzke, Henry; Terock, Jan; Grabe, Hans Jörgen

2018-06-19

Depression and obesity are widespread and closely linked. Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and vitamin D are both assumed to be associated with depression and obesity. Little is known about the interplay between vitamin D and BDNF. We explored the putative associations and interactions between serum BDNF and vitamin D levels with depressive symptoms and abdominal obesity in a large population-based cohort. Data were obtained from the population-based Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP)-Trend (n = 3,926). The associations of serum BDNF and vitamin D levels with depressive symptoms (measured using the Patient Health Questionnaire) were assessed with binary and multinomial logistic regression models. The associations of serum BDNF and vitamin D levels with obesity (measured by the waist-to-hip ratio [WHR]) were assessed with binary logistic and linear regression models with restricted cubic splines. Logistic regression models revealed inverse associations of vitamin D with depression (OR = 0.966; 95% CI 0.951-0.981) and obesity (OR = 0.976; 95% CI 0.967-0.985). No linear association of serum BDNF with depression or obesity was found. However, linear regression models revealed a U-shaped association of BDNF with WHR (p < 0.001). Vitamin D was inversely associated with depression and obesity. BDNF was associated with abdominal obesity, but not with depression. At the population level, our results support the relevant roles of vitamin D and BDNF in mental and physical health-related outcomes. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Estimation of genomic prediction accuracy from reference populations with varying degrees of relationship.

PubMed

Lee, S Hong; Clark, Sam; van der Werf, Julius H J

2017-01-01

Genomic prediction is emerging in a wide range of fields including animal and plant breeding, risk prediction in human precision medicine and forensic. It is desirable to establish a theoretical framework for genomic prediction accuracy when the reference data consists of information sources with varying degrees of relationship to the target individuals. A reference set can contain both close and distant relatives as well as 'unrelated' individuals from the wider population in the genomic prediction. The various sources of information were modeled as different populations with different effective population sizes (Ne). Both the effective number of chromosome segments (Me) and Ne are considered to be a function of the data used for prediction. We validate our theory with analyses of simulated as well as real data, and illustrate that the variation in genomic relationships with the target is a predictor of the information content of the reference set. With a similar amount of data available for each source, we show that close relatives can have a substantially larger effect on genomic prediction accuracy than lesser related individuals. We also illustrate that when prediction relies on closer relatives, there is less improvement in prediction accuracy with an increase in training data or marker panel density. We release software that can estimate the expected prediction accuracy and power when combining different reference sources with various degrees of relationship to the target, which is useful when planning genomic prediction (before or after collecting data) in animal, plant and human genetics.

Wolf-Rayet stars, black holes and the first detected gravitational wave source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogomazov, A. I.; Cherepashchuk, A. M.; Lipunov, V. M.; Tutukov, A. V.

2018-01-01

The recently discovered burst of gravitational waves GW150914 provides a good new chance to verify the current view on the evolution of close binary stars. Modern population synthesis codes help to study this evolution from two main sequence stars up to the formation of two final remnant degenerate dwarfs, neutron stars or black holes (Masevich and Tutukov, 1988). To study the evolution of the GW150914 predecessor we use the ;Scenario Machine; code presented by Lipunov et al. (1996). The scenario modeling conducted in this study allowed to describe the evolution of systems for which the final stage is a massive BH+BH merger. We find that the initial mass of the primary component can be 100÷140M⊙ and the initial separation of the components can be 50÷350R⊙. Our calculations show the plausibility of modern evolutionary scenarios for binary stars and the population synthesis modeling based on it.

Oceanic circulation models help to predict global biogeography of pelagic yellow-bellied sea snake

PubMed Central

Cotté, Cédric; Bailleul, Frédéric; Lalire, Maxime; Gaspar, Philippe

2016-01-01

It is well recognized that most marine vertebrates, and especially tetrapods, precisely orient and actively move in apparently homogeneous oceanic environments. Here, we investigate the presumptive role of oceanic currents in biogeographic patterns observed in a secondarily marine tetrapod, the yellow-bellied sea snake (Hydrophis [Pelamis] platurus). State-of-the-art world ocean circulation models show how H. platurus, the only pelagic species of sea snake, can potentially exploit oceanic currents to disperse and maintain population mixing between localities that spread over two-thirds of the Earth's circumference. The very close association of these snakes with surface currents seems to provide a highly efficient dispersal mechanism that allowed this species to range extensively and relatively quickly well beyond the central Indo-Pacific area, the centre of origin, abundance and diversity of sea snakes. Our results further suggest that the pan-oceanic population of this species must be extraordinarily large. PMID:27555651

A self-consistent model of cosmic-ray fluxes and positron excess: roles of nearby pulsars and a sub-dominant source population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Jagdish C.; Razzaque, Soebur

2017-09-01

The cosmic-ray positron flux calculated using the cosmic-ray nuclei interactions in our Galaxy cannot explain observed data above 10 GeV. An excess in the measured positron flux is therefore open to interpretation. Nearby pulsars, located within sub-kiloparsec range of the Solar system, are often invoked as plausible sources contributing to the excess. We show that an additional, sub-dominant population of sources together with the contributions from a few nearby pulsars can explain the latest positron excess data from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS). We simultaneously model, using the DRAGON code, propagation of cosmic-ray proton, Helium, electron and positron and fit their respective flux data. Our fit to the Boron to Carbon ratio data gives a diffusion spectral index of 0.45, which is close to the Kraichnan turbulent spectrum.

A self-consistent model of cosmic-ray fluxes and positron excess: roles of nearby pulsars and a sub-dominant source population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joshi, Jagdish C.; Razzaque, Soebur, E-mail: jjagdish@uj.ac.za, E-mail: srazzaque@uj.ac.za

The cosmic-ray positron flux calculated using the cosmic-ray nuclei interactions in our Galaxy cannot explain observed data above 10 GeV. An excess in the measured positron flux is therefore open to interpretation. Nearby pulsars, located within sub-kiloparsec range of the Solar system, are often invoked as plausible sources contributing to the excess. We show that an additional, sub-dominant population of sources together with the contributions from a few nearby pulsars can explain the latest positron excess data from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS). We simultaneously model, using the DRAGON code, propagation of cosmic-ray proton, Helium, electron and positron and fitmore » their respective flux data. Our fit to the Boron to Carbon ratio data gives a diffusion spectral index of 0.45, which is close to the Kraichnan turbulent spectrum.« less

On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics

PubMed Central

Krkošek, Martin; Drake, John M.

2014-01-01

Critical slowing down (CSD) reflects the decline in resilience of equilibria near a bifurcation and may reveal early warning signals (EWS) of ecological phase transitions. We studied CSD in the recruitment dynamics of 120 stocks of three Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) species in relation to critical transitions in fishery models. Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) exhibited increased variability and autocorrelation in populations that had a growth parameter, r, close to zero, consistent with EWS of extinction. However, models and data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) indicate that portfolio effects from heterogeneity in age-at-maturity may obscure EWS. Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) show intermediate results. The data do not reveal EWS of Ricker-type bifurcations that cause oscillations and chaos at high r. These results not only provide empirical support for CSD in some ecological systems, but also indicate that portfolio effects of age structure may conceal EWS of some critical transitions. PMID:24759855

Glass Effect in Inbreeding-Avoidance Systems: Minimum Viable Population for Outbreeders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tainaka, Kei-ichi; Itoh, Yoshiaki

1996-10-01

Many animals, birds and plants have evolved mechanisms to avoid inbreeding between close relatives.Such mating systems may have developed several methods for restricting mate choice.If fragmentation of habitats becomes serious, these methods may lead to a lack of acceptable mates. We call this “glass effect”which is a generalization of the so-called Allee effect.We present two inbreeding-avoidance (outbreeding) models.Both models show that outbreeders have a high risk infragmented environments.We thus obtain the minimum viable population (MVP). It is found that the value of MVP amounts to the range from several hundred to several thousand individuals.While this value is much larger than thoseobtained by the previous demographic theories,it is consistent with recent empirical estimations.Moreover, we find that the glass effect is caused bydynamically induced clusters of relatives.This suggests that genetic variation will be decreased by the outbreeding in a highly fragmented environment.

Discovery of trypanosomatid parasites in globally distributed Drosophila species.

PubMed

Chandler, James Angus; James, Pamela M

2013-01-01

Microbial parasites of animals include bacteria, viruses, and various unicellular eukaryotes. Because of the difficulty in studying these microorganisms in both humans and disease vectors, laboratory models are commonly used for experimental analysis of host-parasite interactions. Drosophila is one such model that has made significant contributions to our knowledge of bacterial, fungal, and viral infections. Despite this, less is known about other potential parasites associated with natural Drosophila populations. Here, we surveyed sixteen Drosophila populations comprising thirteen species from four continents and Hawaii and found that they are associated with an extensive diversity of trypanosomatids (Euglenozoa, Kinetoplastea). Phylogenetic analysis finds that Drosophila-associated trypanosomatids are closely related to taxa that are responsible for various types of leishmaniases and more distantly related to the taxa responsible for human African trypanosomiasis and Chagas disease. We suggest that Drosophila may provide a powerful system for studying the interactions between trypanosomatids and their hosts.

Ecological correlates of population genetic structure: a comparative approach using a vertebrate metacommunity.

PubMed

Manier, Mollie K; Arnold, Stevan J

2006-12-07

Identifying ecological factors associated with population genetic differentiation is important for understanding microevolutionary processes and guiding the management of threatened populations. We identified ecological correlates of several population genetic parameters for three interacting species (two garter snakes and an anuran) that occupy a common landscape. Using multiple regression analysis, we found that species interactions were more important in explaining variation in population genetic parameters than habitat and nearest-neighbour characteristics. Effective population size was best explained by census size, while migration was associated with differences in species abundance. In contrast, genetic distance was poorly explained by the ecological correlates that we tested, but geographical distance was prominent in models for all species. We found substantially different population dynamics for the prey species relative to the two predators, characterized by larger effective sizes, lower gene flow and a state of migration-drift equilibrium. We also identified an escarpment formed by a series of block faults that serves as a barrier to dispersal for the predators. Our results suggest that successful landscape-level management should incorporate genetic and ecological data for all relevant species, because even closely associated species can exhibit very different population genetic dynamics on the same landscape.

A spatial hazard model for cluster detection on continuous indicators of disease: application to somatic cell score.

PubMed

Gay, Emilie; Senoussi, Rachid; Barnouin, Jacques

2007-01-01

Methods for spatial cluster detection dealing with diseases quantified by continuous variables are few, whereas several diseases are better approached by continuous indicators. For example, subclinical mastitis of the dairy cow is evaluated using a continuous marker of udder inflammation, the somatic cell score (SCS). Consequently, this study proposed to analyze spatialized risk and cluster components of herd SCS through a new method based on a spatial hazard model. The dataset included annual SCS for 34 142 French dairy herds for the year 2000, and important SCS risk factors: mean parity, percentage of winter and spring calvings, and herd size. The model allowed the simultaneous estimation of the effects of known risk factors and of potential spatial clusters on SCS, and the mapping of the estimated clusters and their range. Mean parity and winter and spring calvings were significantly associated with subclinical mastitis risk. The model with the presence of 3 clusters was highly significant, and the 3 clusters were attractive, i.e. closeness to cluster center increased the occurrence of high SCS. The three localizations were the following: close to the city of Troyes in the northeast of France; around the city of Limoges in the center-west; and in the southwest close to the city of Tarbes. The semi-parametric method based on spatial hazard modeling applies to continuous variables, and takes account of both risk factors and potential heterogeneity of the background population. This tool allows a quantitative detection but assumes a spatially specified form for clusters.

Improvement of open and semi-open core wall system in tall buildings by closing of the core section in the last story

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kheyroddin, A.; Abdollahzadeh, D.; Mastali, M.

2014-09-01

Increasing number of tall buildings in urban population caused development of tall building structures. One of the main lateral load resistant systems is core wall system in high-rise buildings. Core wall system has two important behavioral aspects where the first aspect is related to reduce the lateral displacement by the core bending resistance and the second is governed by increasing of the torsional resistance and core warping of buildings. In this study, the effects of closed section core in the last story have been considered on the behavior of models. Regarding this, all analyses were performed by ETABS 9.2.v software (Wilson and Habibullah). Considering (a) drift and rotation of the core over height of buildings, (b) total and warping stress in the core body, (c) shear in beams due to warping stress, (d) effect of closing last story on period of models in various modes, (e) relative displacement between walls in the core system and (f) site effects in far and near field of fault by UBC97 spectra on base shear coefficient showed that the bimoment in open core is negative in the last quarter of building and it is similar to wall-frame structures. Furthermore, analytical results revealed that closed section core in the last story improves behavior of the last quarter of structure height, since closing of core section in the last story does not have significant effect on reducing base shear value in near and far field of active faults.

Divergent pattern of nuclear genetic diversity across the range of the Afromontane Prunus africana mirrors variable climate of African highlands

PubMed Central

Kadu, Caroline A. C.; Konrad, Heino; Schueler, Silvio; Muluvi, Geoffrey M.; Eyog-Matig, Oscar; Muchugi, Alice; Williams, Vivienne L.; Ramamonjisoa, Lolona; Kapinga, Consolatha; Foahom, Bernard; Katsvanga, Cuthbert; Hafashimana, David; Obama, Crisantos; Geburek, Thomas

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Afromontane forest ecosystems share a high similarity of plant and animal biodiversity, although they occur mainly on isolated mountain massifs throughout the continent. This resemblance has long provoked questions on former wider distribution of Afromontane forests. In this study Prunus africana (one of the character trees of Afromontane forests) is used as a model for understanding the biogeography of this vegetation zone. Methods Thirty natural populations from nine African countries covering a large part of Afromontane regions were analysed using six nuclear microsatellites. Standard population genetic analysis as well as Bayesian and maximum likelihood models were used to infer genetic diversity, population differentiation, barriers to gene flow, and recent and all migration among populations. Key Results Prunus africana exhibits strong divergence among five main Afromontane regions: West Africa, East Africa west of the Eastern Rift Valley (ERV), East Africa east of the ERV, southern Africa and Madagascar. The strongest divergence was evident between Madagascar and continental Africa. Populations from West Africa showed high similarity with East African populations west of the ERV, whereas populations east of the ERV are closely related to populations of southern Africa, respectively. Conclusions The observed patterns indicate divergent population history across the continent most likely associated to Pleistocene changes in climatic conditions. The high genetic similarity between populations of West Africa with population of East Africa west of the ERV is in agreement with faunistic and floristic patterns and provides further evidence for a historical migration route. Contrasting estimates of recent and historical gene flow indicate a shift of the main barrier to gene flow from the Lake Victoria basin to the ERV, highlighting the dynamic environmental and evolutionary history of the region. PMID:23250908

Experimental and mathematical modeling of the consumer’s influence on productivity of algae in a model aquatic ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pisman, T. I.; Galayda, Ya. V.; Shirobokova, I. M.

A "producer-consumer" ( Chlorella vulgaris- Paramecium caudatum) closed aquatic system has been investigated experimentally and theoretically. It has been found that there is a direct relationship between the growth of the paramecia population and their release of ammonia nitrogen, which is the best form of nitrogen for Chlorella growth. The theoretical study of a model of a "producer-consumer" aquatic biotic cycle with spatially separated compartments has confirmed the contribution of paramecia to nitrogen cycling. It has been shown that an increase in the concentration of nitrogen released as metabolites of paramecia is accompanied by an increase in the productivity of microalgae.

From microscopic taxation and redistribution models to macroscopic income distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertotti, Maria Letizia; Modanese, Giovanni

2011-10-01

We present here a general framework, expressed by a system of nonlinear differential equations, suitable for the modeling of taxation and redistribution in a closed society. This framework allows one to describe the evolution of income distribution over the population and to explain the emergence of collective features based on knowledge of the individual interactions. By making different choices of the framework parameters, we construct different models, whose long-time behavior is then investigated. Asymptotic stationary distributions are found, which enjoy similar properties as those observed in empirical distributions. In particular, they exhibit power law tails of Pareto type and their Lorenz curves and Gini indices are consistent with some real world ones.

Length-Based Assessment of Coral Reef Fish Populations in the Main and Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

PubMed Central

Nadon, Marc O.; Ault, Jerald S.; Williams, Ivor D.; Smith, Steven G.; DiNardo, Gerard T.

2015-01-01

The coral reef fish community of Hawaii is composed of hundreds of species, supports a multimillion dollar fishing and tourism industry, and is of great cultural importance to the local population. However, a major stock assessment of Hawaiian coral reef fish populations has not yet been conducted. Here we used the robust indicator variable “average length in the exploited phase of the population (L¯)”, estimated from size composition data from commercial fisheries trip reports and fishery-independent diver surveys, to evaluate exploitation rates for 19 Hawaiian reef fishes. By and large, the average lengths obtained from diver surveys agreed well with those from commercial data. We used the estimated exploitation rates coupled with life history parameters synthesized from the literature to parameterize a numerical population model and generate stock sustainability metrics such as spawning potential ratios (SPR). We found good agreement between predicted average lengths in an unfished population (from our population model) and those observed from diver surveys in the largely unexploited Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Of 19 exploited reef fish species assessed in the main Hawaiian Islands, 9 had SPRs close to or below the 30% overfishing threshold. In general, longer-lived species such as surgeonfishes, the redlip parrotfish (Scarus rubroviolaceus), and the gray snapper (Aprion virescens) had the lowest SPRs, while short-lived species such as goatfishes and jacks, as well as two invasive species (Lutjanus kasmira and Cephalopholis argus), had SPRs above the 30% threshold. PMID:26267473

Parker's sneak-guard model revisited: why do reproductively parasitic males heavily invest in testes?

PubMed

Ota, Kazutaka; Kohda, Masanori; Hori, Michio; Sato, Tetsu

2011-10-01

Alternative reproductive tactics are widespread in males and may cause intraspecific differences in testes investment. Parker's sneak-guard model predicts that sneaker males, who mate under sperm competition risk, invest in testes relatively more than bourgeois conspecifics that have lower risk. Given that sneakers are much smaller than bourgeois males, sneakers may increase testes investment to overcome their limited sperm productivity because of their small body sizes. In this study, we examined the mechanism that mediates differential testes investment across tactics in the Lake Tanganyika cichlid fish Lamprologus callipterus. In the Rumonge population of Burundi, bourgeois males are small compared with those in other populations and have a body size close to sneaky dwarf males. Therefore, if differences in relative testis investment depend on sperm competition, the rank order of relative testis investment should be dwarf males > bourgeois males in Rumonge = bourgeois males in the other populations. If differences in relative testis investment depend on body size, the rank order of relative testes investment should be dwarf males > bourgeois males in Rumonge > bourgeois males in the other populations. Comparisons of relative testis investment among the three male groups supported the role of sperm competition, as predicted by the sneak-guard model. Nevertheless, the effects of absolute body size on testes investment should be considered to understand the mechanisms underlying intraspecific variation in testes investment caused by alternative reproductive tactics.

Parker's sneak-guard model revisited: why do reproductively parasitic males heavily invest in testes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ota, Kazutaka; Kohda, Masanori; Hori, Michio; Sato, Tetsu

2011-10-01

Alternative reproductive tactics are widespread in males and may cause intraspecific differences in testes investment. Parker's sneak-guard model predicts that sneaker males, who mate under sperm competition risk, invest in testes relatively more than bourgeois conspecifics that have lower risk. Given that sneakers are much smaller than bourgeois males, sneakers may increase testes investment to overcome their limited sperm productivity because of their small body sizes. In this study, we examined the mechanism that mediates differential testes investment across tactics in the Lake Tanganyika cichlid fish Lamprologus callipterus. In the Rumonge population of Burundi, bourgeois males are small compared with those in other populations and have a body size close to sneaky dwarf males. Therefore, if differences in relative testis investment depend on sperm competition, the rank order of relative testis investment should be dwarf males > bourgeois males in Rumonge = bourgeois males in the other populations. If differences in relative testis investment depend on body size, the rank order of relative testes investment should be dwarf males > bourgeois males in Rumonge > bourgeois males in the other populations. Comparisons of relative testis investment among the three male groups supported the role of sperm competition, as predicted by the sneak-guard model. Nevertheless, the effects of absolute body size on testes investment should be considered to understand the mechanisms underlying intraspecific variation in testes investment caused by alternative reproductive tactics.

Plugging the leak: barrier island restoration following Hurricane Katrina enhances larval retention and improves salinity regime for oysters in Mobile Bay, Alabama.

PubMed

Park, Kyeong; Powers, Sean P; Bosarge, George S; Jung, Hoon-Shin

2014-03-01

Changes in geomorphology of estuaries are common following major perpetuations such as hurricanes and may have profound impacts on biological systems. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 created a new pass, called Katrina Cut, halving Dauphin Island in Mobile Bay, Alabama. Significant decline in oyster population at Cedar Point Reef, the primary oyster harvest grounds in Mobile Bay, had persisted since then until the Cut was artificially closed in 2010. A bio-physical model for hydrodynamics and oyster larval transport was used to evaluate two potential mechanisms responsible for oyster population declines: salinity changes in the context of oyster habitat suitability and retention of oyster larvae. The model results revealed that when open Katrina Cut increased salinity at Cedar Point Reef. During high freshwater discharge, in particular, water exchange through Katrina Cut increased the bottom salinity from <5 psu to well over 15 (sometimes >20) psu during the tropic tides. Elevated salinities are associated with greater predation on oysters and higher disease incidence. The presence of the Katrina Cut also reduced larval retention in the spawning area regardless of tidal or river discharge conditions. We conclude that closing the Cut likely improved conditions for oysters within Mobile Bay and eastern Mississippi Sound and that these improved conditions have contributed to increased oyster landings. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The prevalence of and factors associated with tobacco smoking behavior among long-distance drivers in Lagos, Nigeria.

PubMed

Ozoh, Obianuju B; Akanbi, Maxwell O; Amadi, Casmir E; Vollmer, William; Bruce, Nigel

2017-09-01

Factors associated with tobacco smoking are useful in designing tobacco control programs. To estimate the prevalence of and factors associated with tobacco smoking among long-distance drivers. This was a cross-sectional study. Stratified cluster sampling approach was used to select drivers based on if they received annual health screening (AHS) or not (non AHS). We used a structured questionnaire to obtain information and weighted the resulting observations to derive population based estimates. Association between tobacco smoking and socio-demographic factors was explored in multivariate models. 414 male drivers, mean age 43.6 (standard error 0.6) years. Population weighted prevalence of current smoking was 18.9% (95% CI: 14.3-23.4) of all drivers, 6.5% (95% CI: 2.6-10.4) of AHS drivers and 19.5 (95% CI: 14.7-24.2) of non AHS drivers (p<0.001). In multivariate models, having close friends that smoked (OR= 6.36, 95% CI= 2.49 - 16.20) cargo driving (OR= 2.58, 95% CI= 1.29 - 5.15) and lower education levels (OR for post-secondary education vs. primary education or less= 0.17, 95% CI= 0.04 - 0.81) were associated with current smoking. Prevalence of tobacco smoking is higher among non AHS compared to AHS drivers. Having close friends that smoked, cargo driving, and lower education levels were associated with current smoking.

Norms and stigma around unintended pregnancy in Alabama: Associations with recent contraceptive use and dual method use among young women.

PubMed

Rice, Whitney S; Turan, Bulent; White, Kari; Turan, Janet M

2017-12-14

The role of unintended pregnancy norms and stigma in contraceptive use among young women is understudied. This study investigated relationships between anticipated reactions from others, perceived stigma, and endorsed stigma concerning unintended pregnancy, with any and dual contraceptive use in this population. From November 2014 to October 2015, young women aged 18-24 years (n = 390) and at risk for unintended pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections participated in a survey at a university and public health clinics in Alabama. Multivariable regression models examined associations of unintended pregnancy norms and stigma with contraceptive use, adjusted for demographic and psychosocial characteristics. Compared to nonusers, more any and dual method users, were White, nulliparous, and from the university and had higher income. In adjusted models, anticipated disapproval of unintended pregnancy by close others was associated with greater contraceptive use (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] = 1.54, 95 percent confidence interval [CI] = 1.03-2.30), and endorsement of stigma concerning unintended pregnancy was associated with lower odds of dual method use (aOR = 0.71, 95 percent CI = 0.51-1.00). Unintended pregnancy norms and stigma were associated with contraceptive behavior among young women in Alabama. Findings suggest the potential to promote effective contraceptive use in this population by leveraging close relationships and addressing endorsed stigma.

Modeling multilayer x-ray reflectivity using genetic algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez del Río, M.; Pareschi, G.; Michetschläger, C.

2000-06-01

The x-ray reflectivity of a multilayer is a non-linear function of many parameters (materials, layer thickness, density, roughness). Non-linear fitting of experimental data with simulations requires the use of initial values sufficiently close to the optimum value. This is a difficult task when the topology of the space of the variables is highly structured. We apply global optimization methods to fit multilayer reflectivity. Genetic algorithms are stochastic methods based on the model of natural evolution: the improvement of a population along successive generations. A complete set of initial parameters constitutes an individual. The population is a collection of individuals. Each generation is built from the parent generation by applying some operators (selection, crossover, mutation, etc.) on the members of the parent generation. The pressure of selection drives the population to include "good" individuals. For large number of generations, the best individuals will approximate the optimum parameters. Some results on fitting experimental hard x-ray reflectivity data for Ni/C and W/Si multilayers using genetic algorithms are presented. This method can also be applied to design multilayers optimized for a target application.

Primordial binary populations in low-density star clusters as seen by Chandra: globular clusters versus old open clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Berg, Maureen C.

2015-08-01

The binaries in the core of a star cluster are the energy source that prevents the cluster from experiencing core collapse. To model the dynamical evolution of a cluster, it is important to have constraints on the primordial binary content. X-ray observations of old star clusters are very efficient in detecting the close interacting binaries among the cluster members. The X-ray sources in star clusters are a mix of binaries that were dynamically formed and primordial binaries. In massive, dense star clusters, dynamical encounters play an important role in shaping the properties and numbers of the binaries. In contrast, in the low-density clusters the impact of dynamical encounters is presumed to be very small, and the close binaries detected in X-rays represent a primordial population. The lowest density globular clusters have current masses and central densities similar to those of the oldest open clusters in our Milky Way. I will discuss the results of studies with the Chandra X-ray Observatory that have nevertheless revealed a clear dichotomy: far fewer (if any at all) X-ray sources are detected in the central regions of the low-density globular clusters compared to the number of secure cluster members that have been detected in old open clusters (above a limiting X-ray luminosity of typically 4e30 erg/s). The low stellar encounter rates imply that dynamical destruction of binaries can be ignored at present, therefore an explanation must be sought elsewhere. I will discuss several factors that can shed light on the implied differences between the primordial close binary populations in the two types of star clusters.

An audit of the statistics and the comparison with the parameter in the population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bujang, Mohamad Adam; Sa'at, Nadiah; Joys, A. Reena; Ali, Mariana Mohamad

2015-10-01

The sufficient sample size that is needed to closely estimate the statistics for particular parameters are use to be an issue. Although sample size might had been calculated referring to objective of the study, however, it is difficult to confirm whether the statistics are closed with the parameter for a particular population. All these while, guideline that uses a p-value less than 0.05 is widely used as inferential evidence. Therefore, this study had audited results that were analyzed from various sub sample and statistical analyses and had compared the results with the parameters in three different populations. Eight types of statistical analysis and eight sub samples for each statistical analysis were analyzed. Results found that the statistics were consistent and were closed to the parameters when the sample study covered at least 15% to 35% of population. Larger sample size is needed to estimate parameter that involve with categorical variables compared with numerical variables. Sample sizes with 300 to 500 are sufficient to estimate the parameters for medium size of population.

A generic individual-based model to simulate morphogenesis, C-N acquisition and population dynamics in contrasting forage legumes.

PubMed

Louarn, Gaëtan; Faverjon, Lucas

2018-04-18

Individual-based models (IBMs) are promising tools to disentangle plant interactions in multi-species grasslands and foster innovative species mixtures. This study describes an IBM dealing with the morphogenesis, growth and C-N acquisition of forage legumes that integrates plastic responses from functional-structural plant models. A generic model was developed to account for herbaceous legume species with contrasting above- and below-ground morphogenetic syndromes and to integrate the responses of plants to light, water and N. Through coupling with a radiative transfer model and a three-dimensional virtual soil, the model allows dynamic resolution of competition for multiple resources at individual plant level within a plant community. The behaviour of the model was assessed on a range of monospecific stands grown along gradients of light, water and N availability. The model proved able to capture the diversity of morphologies encountered among the forage legumes. The main density-dependent features known about even-age plant populations were correctly anticipated. The model predicted (1) the 'reciprocal yield' law relating average plant mass to density, (2) a self-thinning pattern close to that measured for herbaceous species and (3) consistent changes in the size structure of plant populations with time and pedo-climatic conditions. In addition, plastic changes in the partitioning of dry matter, the N acquisition mode and in the architecture of shoots and roots emerged from the integration of plant responses to their local environment. This resulted in taller plants and thinner roots when competition was dominated by light, and shorter plants with relatively more developed root systems when competition was dominated by soil resources. A population dynamic model considering growth and morphogenesis responses to multiple resources heterogeneously distributed in the environment was presented. It should allow scaling plant-plant interactions from individual to community levels without the inconvenience of average plant models.

A minimum stochastic model evaluating the interplay between population density and drift for species coexistence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guariento, Rafael Dettogni; Caliman, Adriano

2017-02-01

Despite the general acknowledgment of the role of niche and stochastic process in community dynamics, the role of species relative abundances according to both perspectives may have different effects regarding coexistence patterns. In this study, we explore a minimum probabilistic stochastic model to determine the relationship of populations relative and total abundances with species chances to outcompete each other and their persistence in time (i.e., unstable coexistence). Our model is focused on the effects drift (i.e., random sampling of recruitment) under different scenarios of selection (i.e., fitness differences between species). Our results show that taking into account the stochasticity in demographic properties and conservation of individuals in closed communities (zero-sum assumption), initial population abundance can strongly influence species chances to outcompete each other, despite fitness inequalities between populations, and also, influence the period of coexistence of these species in a particular time interval. Systems carrying capacity can have an important role in species coexistence by exacerbating fitness inequalities and affecting the size of the period of coexistence. Overall, the simple stochastic formulation used in this study demonstrated that populations initial abundances could act as an equalizing mechanism, reducing fitness inequalities, which can favor species coexistence and even make less fitted species to be more likely to outcompete better-fitted species, and thus to dominate ecological communities in the absence of niche mechanisms. Although our model is restricted to a pair of interacting species, and overall conclusions are already predicted by the Neutral Theory of Biodiversity, our main objective was to derive a model that can explicitly show the functional relationship between population densities and community mono-dominance odds. Overall, our study provides a straightforward understanding of how a stochastic process (i.e., drift) may affect the expected outcome based on species selection (i.e., fitness inequalities among species) and the resulting outcome regarding unstable coexistence among species.

Use of population exposure frequency distributions to simulate effects of policy interventions on NO2 exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimitroulopoulou, C.; Ashmore, M. R.; Terry, A. C.

2017-02-01

Health effects of air pollution on individuals depend on their personal exposure, but few modelling tools are available which can predict how the distribution of personal exposures within a city will change in response to policies to reduce emissions both indoors and outdoors. We describe a new probabilistic modelling framework (INDAIR-2/EXPAIR), which provides predictions of the personal exposure frequency distribution (PEFD) across a city to assess the effects of both reduced emissions from home sources and reduced roadside concentrations on population exposure. The model uses a national time activity database, which gives the percentage of each population group in different residential and non-residential micro-environments, and links this, for the home, to predictions of concentrations from a three-compartment model, and for non-residential microenvironments to empirical indoor/outdoor ratios. This paper presents modelled PEFDs for NO2 in the city of Leicester, for children, the elderly, and office workers, comparing results in different seasons and on different days of the week. While the mean NO2 population exposure was close to, or below the urban background concentration, the 95%ile of the PEFD was well above the urban background concentration. The relationship between both mean and 95%ile PEFD and urban background concentrations was strongly influenced by air exchange rate. The 24 h mean PEFD showed relative small differences between the population groups, with both removal of home sources and reductions of roadside concentrations on roads with a high traffic density having similar effects in reducing mean exposure. In contrast, the 1 h maximum of the PEFD was significantly higher for children and the elderly than for office workers, and showed a much greater response to reduced home emissions in these groups. The results demonstrate the importance of understanding the dynamics of NO2 exposure at a population level within different groups, if the benefits of policy interventions are to be accurately assessed.

Spin distributions and cross sections of evaporation residues in the 28Si+176Yb reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudarshan, K.; Tripathi, R.; Sodaye, S.; Sharma, S. K.; Pujari, P. K.; Gehlot, J.; Madhavan, N.; Nath, S.; Mohanto, G.; Mukul, I.; Jhingan, A.; Mazumdar, I.

2017-02-01

Background: Non-compound-nucleus fission in the preactinide region has been an active area of investigation in the recent past. Based on the measurements of fission-fragment mass distributions in the fission of 202Po, populated by reactions with varying entrance channel mass asymmetry, the onset of non-compound-nucleus fission was proposed to be around ZpZt˜1000 [Phys. Rev. C 77, 024606 (2008), 10.1103/PhysRevC.77.024606], where Zp and Zt are the projectile and target proton numbers, respectively. Purpose: The present paper is aimed at the measurement of cross sections and spin distributions of evaporation residues in the 28Si+176Yb reaction (ZpZt=980 ) to investigate the fusion hindrance which, in turn, would give information about the contribution from non-compound-nucleus fission in this reaction. Method: Evaporation-residue cross sections were measured in the beam energy range of 129-166 MeV using the hybrid recoil mass analyzer (HYRA) operated in the gas-filled mode. Evaporation-residue cross sections were also measured by the recoil catcher technique followed by off-line γ -ray spectrometry at few intermediate energies. γ -ray multiplicities of evaporation residues were measured to infer about their spin distribution. The measurements were carried out using NaI(Tl) detector-based 4π-spin spectrometer from the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Mumbai, coupled to the HYRA. Results: Evaporation-residue cross sections were significantly lower compared to those calculated using the statistical model code pace2 [Phys. Rev. C 21, 230 (1980), 10.1103/PhysRevC.21.230] with the coupled-channel fusion model code ccfus [Comput. Phys. Commun. 46, 187 (1987), 10.1016/0010-4655(87)90045-2] at beam energies close to the entrance channel Coulomb barrier. At higher beam energies, experimental cross sections were close to those predicted by the model. Average γ -ray multiplicities or angular momentum values of evaporation residues were in agreement with the calculations of the code ccfus + pace2 within the experimental uncertainties at all the beam energies. Conclusions: Deviation of evaporation-residue cross sections from the "fusion + statistical model" predictions at beam energies close to the entrance channel Coulomb barrier indicates fusion hindrance at these beam energies which would lead to non-compound-nucleus fission. However, reasonable agreement of average angular momentum values of evaporation residues at these beam energies with those calculated using the coupled-channel fusion model with the statistical model codes ccfus + pace2 suggests that fusion suppression at beam energies close to the entrance channel Coulomb barrier where populated l waves are low is not l dependent.

Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases

PubMed Central

Mossong, Joël; Hens, Niel; Jit, Mark; Beutels, Philippe; Auranen, Kari; Mikolajczyk, Rafael; Massari, Marco; Salmaso, Stefania; Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia; Wallinga, Jacco; Heijne, Janneke; Sadkowska-Todys, Malgorzata; Rosinska, Magdalena; Edmunds, W. John

2008-01-01

Background Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route (e.g., pandemic influenza) is increasingly being used to determine the impact of possible interventions. Although mixing patterns are known to be crucial determinants for model outcome, researchers often rely on a priori contact assumptions with little or no empirical basis. We conducted a population-based prospective survey of mixing patterns in eight European countries using a common paper-diary methodology. Methods and Findings 7,290 participants recorded characteristics of 97,904 contacts with different individuals during one day, including age, sex, location, duration, frequency, and occurrence of physical contact. We found that mixing patterns and contact characteristics were remarkably similar across different European countries. Contact patterns were highly assortative with age: schoolchildren and young adults in particular tended to mix with people of the same age. Contacts lasting at least one hour or occurring on a daily basis mostly involved physical contact, while short duration and infrequent contacts tended to be nonphysical. Contacts at home, school, or leisure were more likely to be physical than contacts at the workplace or while travelling. Preliminary modelling indicates that 5- to 19-year-olds are expected to suffer the highest incidence during the initial epidemic phase of an emerging infection transmitted through social contacts measured here when the population is completely susceptible. Conclusions To our knowledge, our study provides the first large-scale quantitative approach to contact patterns relevant for infections transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route, and the results should lead to improved parameterisation of mathematical models used to design control strategies. PMID:18366252

Aedes aegypti Global Suitability Maps Using a Water Container Energy Balance Model for Dengue Risk Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinhoff, D.

2015-12-01

Dengue infections are estimated to total nearly 400 million per year worldwide, with both the geographic range and the magnitude of infections having increased in the past 50 years. The primary dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is closely associated with humans. It lives exclusively in urban and semi-urban areas, preferentially bites humans, and spends its developmental stages in artificial water containers. Climate regulates the development of Ae. aegypti immature mosquitoes in artificial containers. Potential containers for Ae. aegypti immature development include, but are not limited to, small sundry items (e.g., bottles, cans, plastic containers), buckets, tires, barrels, tanks, and cisterns. Successful development of immature mosquitoes from eggs to larvae, pupae, and eventually adults is largely dependent on the availability of water and the thermal properties of the water in the containers. Recent work has shown that physics-based approaches toward modeling container water properties are promising for resolving the complexities of container water dynamics and the effects on immature mosquito development. An energy balance container model developed by the author, termed the Water Height And Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH'EM), solves for water temperature and height for user-specified containers with readily available weather data. Here we use WHATCH'EM with NASA Earth Science products used as input to construct global suitability maps based on established water temperature ranges for immature Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. A proxy for dengue risk is provided from habitat suitability, but also population estimates, as Ae. aegypti is closely associated with human activity. NASA gridded Global Population of the World data is used to mask out rural areas with low dengue risk. Suitability maps are illustrated for a variety of containers (size, material, color) and shading scenarios.

Predicting waist circumference from body mass index.

PubMed

Bozeman, Samuel R; Hoaglin, David C; Burton, Tanya M; Pashos, Chris L; Ben-Joseph, Rami H; Hollenbeak, Christopher S

2012-08-03

Being overweight or obese increases risk for cardiometabolic disorders. Although both body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) measure the level of overweight and obesity, WC may be more important because of its closer relationship to total body fat. Because WC is typically not assessed in clinical practice, this study sought to develop and verify a model to predict WC from BMI and demographic data, and to use the predicted WC to assess cardiometabolic risk. Data were obtained from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC). We developed linear regression models for men and women using NHANES data, fitting waist circumference as a function of BMI. For validation, those regressions were applied to ARIC data, assigning a predicted WC to each individual. We used the predicted WC to assess abdominal obesity and cardiometabolic risk. The model correctly classified 88.4% of NHANES subjects with respect to abdominal obesity. Median differences between actual and predicted WC were -0.07 cm for men and 0.11 cm for women. In ARIC, the model closely estimated the observed WC (median difference: -0.34 cm for men, +3.94 cm for women), correctly classifying 86.1% of ARIC subjects with respect to abdominal obesity and 91.5% to 99.5% as to cardiometabolic risk.The model is generalizable to Caucasian and African-American adult populations because it was constructed from data on a large, population-based sample of men and women in the United States, and then validated in a population with a larger representation of African-Americans. The model accurately estimates WC and identifies cardiometabolic risk. It should be useful for health care practitioners and public health officials who wish to identify individuals and populations at risk for cardiometabolic disease when WC data are unavailable.

Genetic diversity in mesoamerican populations of mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla), assessed using RAPDs.

PubMed

Gillies, A C; Navarro, C; Lowe, A J; Newton, A C; Hernández, M; Wilson, J; Cornelius, J P

1999-12-01

Swietenia macrophylla King, a timber species native to tropical America, is threatened by selective logging and deforestation. To quantify genetic diversity within the species and monitor the impact of selective logging, populations were sampled across Mesoamerica, from Mexico to Panama, and analysed for RAPD DNA variation. Ten decamer primers generated 102 polymorphic RAPD bands and pairwise distances were calculated between populations according to Nei, then used to construct a radial neighbour-joining dendrogram and examine intra- and interpopulation variance coefficients, by analysis of molecular variation (AMOVA). Populations from Mexico clustered closely together in the dendrogram and were distinct from the rest of the populations. Those from Belize also clustered closely together. Populations from Panama, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras, however, did not cluster closely by country but were more widely scattered throughout the dendrogram. This result was also reflected by an autocorrelation analysis of genetic and geographical distance. Genetic diversity estimates indicated that 80% of detected variation was maintained within populations and regression analysis demonstrated that logging significantly decreased population diversity (P = 0.034). This study represents one of the most wide-ranging surveys of molecular variation within a tropical tree species to date. It offers practical information for the future conservation of mahogany and highlights some factors that may have influenced the partitioning of genetic diversity in this species across Mesoamerica.

[The concept of nutritional self-sufficiency and the demographic equilibrium of Rwanda].

PubMed

Habimana Nyirasafari, G

1987-12-01

Achieving food self-sufficiency is the basic strategy of Rwanda's 4th 5-year plan covering 1987-91. The population growth rate has increased from 3% in 1970 to 3.7% in 1983, with the population doubling between 1964 and 1985. Food production grew by about 4%/year between 1966-83, creating a slight increase in per capita food availability, but the 2171 calories available per capita is dangerously close to the theoretical minimum requirement of 2100 per day. The theoretical protein requirement is almost covered, but there is a serious shortage of oils. The increase in production since 1966 has been due almost exclusively to the extension of cultivated land. But the land supply is limited, and future production increases will need to be based on increased yields per unit cultivated. The National Office of Population has developed a simulation model that analyzes the parallel evolution of population and production so as to identify demographic and development policies that will assure food self-sufficiency and an improvement in living conditions. The population subsystem subjects the population divided by age and sex to the effects of fertility, migration, and mortality. Births are the result of 36 different fertility rates applied to the population of women aged 14-49 years. The agricultural subsystem is tied to the population subsystem by comparison of the volume of population to that of production, by estimation of the proportion of the population living exclusively by subsistence agriculture, by calculation of the potential emigration resulting from overpopulation of the countryside, and by estimation of the links between nutritional level, mortality, and duration of breastfeeding. 5 annexes contain subsystems showing effects of demographic growth on education, employment, and health. The model has various limitations including those of the reliability of its data, but it is sufficiently precise for its main function of clarifying the choices facing policymakers. 6 scenarios of hypothetical future development of the Rwandan population were introduced into the model, ranging from no change to an increase in life expectancy from 48.6 years in 1984 to 68.5 in 2000 coupled with a decline in fertility from 8.6 to 3 children per woman. The model demonstrates that the only solutions which will have a significant impact on improving the nutritional status of the population are those which combine various actions affecting agriculture as well as population.

The impact of selection on population genetic structure in the clam Meretrix petechialis revealed by microsatellite markers.

PubMed

Lu, Xia; Wang, Hongxia; Li, Yan; Liu, Baozhong

2016-02-01

The aim of our work is to evaluate the impact of mass selection on genetic structure in artificially closed populations of the clam Meretrix petechialis. In the present study, we performed mass selection over four generations (from 2004 to 2010) on two clam populations [shell features of purple lines (SP) and black dots (SB)] and analyzed their temporal genetic variation and structure using microsatellite makers. The two closed populations originated from the natural Shandong population (SD); thus, a natural SD population (10SD) was used to detect the current genetic structure after 6 years of natural selection. The results showed that the genetic diversity of the four generations of SB and SP was gradually reduced but remained at relatively high levels (SB, A = 18.9.4-16.8, Ho = 0.7389-0.6971, and He = 0.8897-0.8591; SP, A = 20.0-17.8, Ho = 0.7512-0.7043, and He = 0.8938-0.8625), which has not been reduced compared with that of the 10SD population (A = 17.8, Ho = 0.6803, and He = 0.8302). The Ne estimates for the two populations were almost at the same levels as the actual numbers of parental individuals. In addition, a low inbreeding coefficient was detected in the two populations (SB, 0.00201-0.00639; SP, 0.00176-0.00541). Based on the results, the present mass selection has not made a large impact on the population genetic structure of the closed populations. The present investigation provides important information for the development of management strategies for genetic breeding of the clam.

STR-based genetic structure of the Berber population of Bejaia (Northern Algeria) and its relationships to various ethnic groups.

PubMed

Amir, Nadir; Sahnoune, Mohamed; Chikhi, Lounes; Atmani, Djebbar

2015-12-10

Patterns of genetic variation in human populations have been described for decades. However, North Africa has received little attention and Algeria, in particular, is poorly studied, Here we genotyped a Berber-speaking population from Algeria using 15 short tandem repeat (STR) loci D8S1179, D21S11, D7S820, CSF1PO, D3S1358, TH01, D13S317, D16S539, D2S1338, D19S433, vWA, TPOX, D18S51, D5S818 and FGA from the commercially available AmpF/STR Identifiler kit. Altogether 150 unrelated North Algerian individuals were sampled across 10 administrative regions or towns from the Bejaia Wilaya (administrative district). We found that all of the STR loci met Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium expectations, after Bonferroni correction and that the Berber-speaking population of Bejaia presented a high level of observed heterozygosity for the 15 STR system (>0.7). Genetic parameters of forensic interest such as combined power of discrimination (PD) and combined probability of exclusion (PE) showed values higher than 0.999, suggesting that this set of STRs can be used for forensic studies. Our results were also compared to those published for 42 other human populations analyzed with the same set. We found that the Bejaia sample clustered with several North African populations but that some geographically close populations, including the Berber-speaking Mozabite from Algeria were closer to Near-Eastern populations. While we were able to detect some genetic structure among samples, we found that it was not correlated to language (Berber-speaking versus Arab-speaking) or to geography (east versus west). In other words, no significant genetic differences were found between the Berber-speaking and the Arab-speaking populations of North Africa. The genetic closeness of European, North African and Near-Eastern populations suggest that North Africa should be integrated in models aiming at reconstructing the demographic history of Europe. Similarly, the genetic proximity with sub-Saharan Africa is a reminder of the links that connect all African regions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reproductive synchrony in a recovering bottlenecked sea turtle population.

PubMed

Plot, Virginie; de Thoisy, Benoît; Blanc, Stéphane; Kelle, Laurent; Lavergne, Anne; Roger-Bérubet, Hélène; Tremblay, Yann; Fossette, Sabrina; Georges, Jean-Yves

2012-03-01

1. The assessment of species extinction risk has been well established for some time now. Assessing the potential for recovery in endangered species is however much more challenging, because complementary approaches are required to detect reliable signals of positive trends. 2. This study combines genetics, demography and behavioural data at three different time-scales to assess historical and recent population changes and evidence of reproductive synchrony in a small population of olive ridley sea turtle Lepidochelys olivacea. Lepidochelys is considered as the most extraordinary example of reproductive synchrony in reptiles, yet to date, it has only been reported in large populations. 3. Using Bayesian coalescent-based models on microsatellite nuclear DNA variability, we demonstrate that effective population size in olive ridleys nesting in French Guiana has dramatically declined by 99% over the last 20 centuries. This low current population size is further illustrated by the absence of genetic mitochondrial DNA diversity in the present nesting population. Yet, monitoring of nesting sites in French Guiana suggests a possible recovery of the population over the last decade. 4. Satellite telemetry shows that over the first 14 days of their 28-days inter-nesting interval, i.e. when eggs maturation is likely to occur, gravid females disperse over the continental shelf. They then gather together with a striking spatiotemporal consistency close to the nesting site, where they later emerge for their second nesting event. 5. Our results therefore suggest that reproductive synchrony also occurs in small populations. Olive ridleys may ensure this synchrony by adjusting the duration of the second half of their inter-nesting interval prior to landing, possibly through social mediation. 6. Such reproductive synchrony may be related to the maintenance of some species-specific strategy despite former collapse and may contribute to the present population recovery. The gregarious behaviour of reproductive individuals close to shore where human-induced perturbations occur is however a cause for conservation concern for this still poorly known species. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Y-chromosomal diversity of the Valachs from the Czech Republic: model for isolated population in Central Europe

PubMed Central

Ehler, Edvard; Vaněk, Daniel; Stenzl, Vlastimil; Vančata, Václav

2011-01-01

Aim To evaluate Y-chromosomal diversity of the Moravian Valachs of the Czech Republic and compare them with a Czech population sample and other samples from Central and South-Eastern Europe, and to evaluate the effects of genetic isolation and sampling. Methods The first sample set of the Valachs consisted of 94 unrelated male donors from the Valach region in northeastern Czech Republic border-area. The second sample set of the Valachs consisted of 79 men who originated from 7 paternal lineages defined by surname. No close relatives were sampled. The third sample set consisted of 273 unrelated men from the whole of the Czech Republic and was used for comparison, as well as published data for other 27 populations. The total number of samples was 3244. Y-short tandem repeat (STR) markers were typed by standard methods using PowerPlex® Y System (Promega) and Yfiler® Amplification Kit (Applied Biosystems) kits. Y-chromosomal haplogroups were estimated from the haplotype information. Haplotype diversity and other intra- and inter-population statistics were computed. Results The Moravian Valachs showed a lower genetic variability of Y-STR markers than other Central European populations, resembling more to the isolated Balkan populations (Aromuns, Csango, Bulgarian, and Macedonian Roma) than the surrounding populations (Czechs, Slovaks, Poles, Saxons). We illustrated the effect of sampling on Valach paternal lineages, which includes reduction of discrimination capacity and variability inside Y-chromosomal haplogroups. Valach modal haplotype belongs to R1a haplogroup and it was not detected in the Czech population. Conclusion The Moravian Valachs display strong substructure and isolation in their Y chromosomal markers. They represent a unique Central European population model for population genetics. PMID:21674832

The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100.

PubMed

Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2017-01-01

This paper applies the methods of multi-dimensional mathematical demography to project national populations based on alternative assumptions on future, fertility, mortality, migration and educational transitions that correspond to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) storylines. In doing so it goes a significant step beyond past population scenarios in the IPCC context which considered only total population size. By differentiating the human population not only by age and sex-as is conventionally done in demographic projections-but also by different levels of educational attainment the most fundamental aspects of human development and social change are being explicitly addressed through modeling the changing composition of populations by these three important individual characteristics. The scenarios have been defined in a collaborative effort of the international Integrated Assessment Modeling community with the medium scenario following that of a major new effort by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OEAW, WU) involving over 550 experts from around the world. As a result, in terms of total world population size the trajectories resulting from the five SSPs stay very close to each other until around 2030 and by the middle of the century already a visible differentiation appears with the range between the highest (SSP3) and the lowest (SSP1) trajectories spanning 1.5 billion. The range opens up much more with the SSP3 reaching 12.6 billion in 2100 and SSP1 falling to 6.9 billion which is lower than today's world population.

Population genetic analysis of Theileria parva isolated in cattle and buffaloes in Tanzania using minisatellite and microsatellite markers.

PubMed

Rukambile, Elpidius; Machuka, Eunice; Njahira, Moses; Kyalo, Martina; Skilton, Robert; Mwega, Elisa; Chota, Andrew; Mathias, Mkama; Sallu, Raphael; Salih, Diaeldin

2016-07-15

A population genetic study of Theileria parva was conducted on 103 cattle and 30 buffalo isolates from Kibaha, Lushoto, Njombe Districts and selected National parks in Tanzania. Bovine blood samples were collected from these study areas and categorized into 5 populations; Buffalo, Cattle which graze close to buffalo, Kibaha, Lushoto and Njombe. Samples were tested by nested PCR for T. parva DNA and positives were compared for genetic diversity to the T. parva Muguga vaccine reference strain, using 3micro and 11 minisatellite markers selected from all 4 chromosomes of the parasite genome. The diversity across populations was determined by the mean number of different alleles, mean number of effective alleles, mean number of private allele and expected heterozygosity. The mean number of allele unique to populations for Cattle close to buffalo, Muguga, Njombe, Kibaha, Lushoto and Buffalo populations were 0.18, 0.24, 0.63, 0.71, 1.63 and 3.37, respectively. The mean number of different alleles ranged from 6.97 (Buffalo) to 0.07 (Muguga). Mean number of effective alleles ranged from 4.49 (Buffalo) to 0.29 (Muguga). The mean expected heterozygosity were 0.07 0.29, 0.45, 0.48, 0.59 and 0.64 for Muguga, cattle close to buffalo, Kibaha, Njombe, Lushoto and Buffalo populations, respectively. The Buffalo and Lushoto isolates possessed a close degree of diversity in terms of mean number of different alleles, effective alleles, private alleles and expected heterozygosity. The study revealed more diversity in buffalo isolates and further studies are recommended to establish if there is sharing of parasites between cattle and buffaloes which may affect the effectiveness of the control methods currently in use. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting population survival under future climate change: density dependence, drought and extraction in an insular bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Colchero, Fernando; Medellin, Rodrigo A; Clark, James S; Lee, Raymond; Katul, Gabriel G

2009-05-01

1. Our understanding of the interplay between density dependence, climatic perturbations, and conservation practices on the dynamics of small populations is still limited. This can result in uninformed strategies that put endangered populations at risk. Moreover, the data available for a large number of populations in such circumstances are sparse and mined with missing data. Under the current climate change scenarios, it is essential to develop appropriate inferential methods that can make use of such data sets. 2. We studied a population of desert bighorn sheep introduced to Tiburon Island, Mexico in 1975 and subjected to irregular extractions for the last 10 years. The unique attributes of this population are absence of predation and disease, thereby permitting us to explore the combined effect of density dependence, environmental variability and extraction in a 'controlled setting.' Using a combination of nonlinear discrete models with long-term field data, we constructed three basic Bayesian state space models with increasing density dependence (DD), and the same three models with the addition of summer drought effects. 3. We subsequently used Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the combined effect of drought, DD, and increasing extractions on the probability of population survival under two climate change scenarios (based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictions): (i) increase in drought variability; and (ii) increase in mean drought severity. 4. The population grew from 16 individuals introduced in 1975 to close to 700 by 1993. Our results show that the population's growth was dominated by DD, with drought having a secondary but still relevant effect on its dynamics. 5. Our predictions suggest that under climate change scenario (i), extraction dominates the fate of the population, while for scenario (ii), an increase in mean drought affects the population's probability of survival in an equivalent magnitude as extractions. Thus, for the long-term survival of the population, our results stress that a more variable environment is less threatening than one in which the mean conditions become harsher. Current climate change scenarios and their underlying uncertainty make studies such as this one crucial for understanding the dynamics of ungulate populations and their conservation.

Predictive ability of genomic selection models for breeding value estimation on growth traits of Pacific white shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Quanchao; Yu, Yang; Li, Fuhua; Zhang, Xiaojun; Xiang, Jianhai

2017-09-01

Genomic selection (GS) can be used to accelerate genetic improvement by shortening the selection interval. The successful application of GS depends largely on the accuracy of the prediction of genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV). This study is a first attempt to understand the practicality of GS in Litopenaeus vannamei and aims to evaluate models for GS on growth traits. The performance of GS models in L. vannamei was evaluated in a population consisting of 205 individuals, which were genotyped for 6 359 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers by specific length amplified fragment sequencing (SLAF-seq) and phenotyped for body length and body weight. Three GS models (RR-BLUP, BayesA, and Bayesian LASSO) were used to obtain the GEBV, and their predictive ability was assessed by the reliability of the GEBV and the bias of the predicted phenotypes. The mean reliability of the GEBVs for body length and body weight predicted by the different models was 0.296 and 0.411, respectively. For each trait, the performances of the three models were very similar to each other with respect to predictability. The regression coefficients estimated by the three models were close to one, suggesting near to zero bias for the predictions. Therefore, when GS was applied in a L. vannamei population for the studied scenarios, all three models appeared practicable. Further analyses suggested that improved estimation of the genomic prediction could be realized by increasing the size of the training population as well as the density of SNPs.

Human-facilitated metapopulation dynamics in an emerging pest species, Cimex lectularius

PubMed Central

FOUNTAIN, TOBY; DUVAUX, LUDOVIC; HORSBURGH, GAVIN; REINHARDT, KLAUS; BUTLIN, ROGER K

2014-01-01

The number and demographic history of colonists can have dramatic consequences for the way in which genetic diversity is distributed and maintained in a metapopulation. The bed bug (Cimex lectularius) is a re-emerging pest species whose close association with humans has led to frequent local extinction and colonization, that is, to metapopulation dynamics. Pest control limits the lifespan of subpopulations, causing frequent local extinctions, and human-facilitated dispersal allows the colonization of empty patches. Founder events often result in drastic reductions in diversity and an increased influence of genetic drift. Coupled with restricted migration, this can lead to rapid population differentiation. We therefore predicted strong population structuring. Here, using 21 newly characterized microsatellite markers and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we investigate simplified versions of two classical models of metapopulation dynamics, in a coalescent framework, to estimate the number and genetic composition of founders in the common bed bug. We found very limited diversity within infestations but high degrees of structuring across the city of London, with extreme levels of genetic differentiation between infestations (FST = 0.59). ABC results suggest a common origin of all founders of a given subpopulation and that the numbers of colonists were low, implying that even a single mated female is enough to found a new infestation successfully. These patterns of colonization are close to the predictions of the propagule pool model, where all founders originate from the same parental infestation. These results show that aspects of metapopulation dynamics can be captured in simple models and provide insights that are valuable for the future targeted control of bed bug infestations. PMID:24446663

Emergence of Persistent Infection due to Heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agrawal, Vidit; Moitra, Promit; Sinha, Sudeshna

2017-02-01

We explore the emergence of persistent infection in a closed region where the disease progression of the individuals is given by the SIRS model, with an individual becoming infected on contact with another infected individual. We investigate the persistence of contagion qualitatively and quantitatively, under increasing heterogeneity in the partitioning of the population into different disease compartments, as well as increasing heterogeneity in the phases of the disease among individuals within a compartment. We observe that when the initial population is uniform, consisting of individuals at the same stage of disease progression, infection arising from a contagious seed does not persist. However when the initial population consists of randomly distributed refractory and susceptible individuals, a single source of infection can lead to sustained infection in the population, as heterogeneity facilitates the de-synchronization of the phases in the disease cycle of the individuals. We also show how the average size of the window of persistence of infection depends on the degree of heterogeneity in the initial composition of the population. In particular, we show that the infection eventually dies out when the entire initial population is susceptible, while even a few susceptibles among an heterogeneous refractory population gives rise to a large persistent infected set.

Assessing vaccination as a control strategy in an ongoing epidemic: Bovine tuberculosis in African buffalo

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cross, Paul C.; Getz, W.M.

2006-01-01

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is an exotic disease invading the buffalo population (Syncerus caffer) of the Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa. We used a sex and age-structured epidemiological model to assess the effectiveness of a vaccination program and define important research directions. The model allows for dispersal between a focal herd and background population and was parameterized with a combination of published data and analyses of over 130 radio-collared buffalo in the central region of the KNP. Radio-tracking data indicated that all sex and age categories move between mixed herds, and males over 8 years old had higher mortality and dispersal rates than any other sex or age category. In part due to the high dispersal rates of buffalo, sensitivity analyses indicate that disease prevalence in the background population accounts for the most variability in the BTB prevalence and quasi-eradication within the focal herd. Vaccination rate and the transmission coefficient were the second and third most important parameters of the sensitivity analyses. Further analyses of the model without dispersal suggest that the amount of vaccination necessary for quasi-eradication (i.e. prevalence < 5%) depends upon the duration that a vaccine grants protection. Vaccination programs are more efficient (i.e. fewer wasted doses) when they focus on younger individuals. However, even with a lifelong vaccine and a closed population, the model suggests that >70% of the calf population would have to be vaccinated every year to reduce the prevalence to less than 1%. If the half-life of the vaccine is less than 5 years, even vaccinating every calf for 50 years may not eradicate BTB. Thus, although vaccination provides a means of controlling BTB prevalence it should be combined with other control measures if eradication is the objective.

Upstream gyrophase bunched ions - A mechanism for creation at the bow shock and the growth of velocity space structure through gyrophase mixing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gurgiolo, C.; Parks, G. K.; Mauk, G. H.

1983-01-01

The conditions necessary for the production of gyrophase bunched ions at the bow shock are developed. The conditions are applied to the reflection mechanism presented by Paschmann et al. (1980), showing that when in their model a portion of the incident parallel velocity is converted into reflected perpendicular velocity, the reflected particles are gyrophase bunched. The growth of velocity space structure in the gyrophase bunched distribution through gyrophase mixing is also explored. The structure is found to be similar to that reported in diffuse and dispersed ion events. This together with the close correlation of the observation of gyrophase bunched ions with diffuse and dispersed ions has led us to speculate that these two populations may be closely related.

Cure fraction model with random effects for regional variation in cancer survival.

PubMed

Seppä, Karri; Hakulinen, Timo; Kim, Hyon-Jung; Läärä, Esa

2010-11-30

Assessing regional differences in the survival of cancer patients is important but difficult when separate regions are small or sparsely populated. In this paper, we apply a mixture cure fraction model with random effects to cause-specific survival data of female breast cancer patients collected by the population-based Finnish Cancer Registry. Two sets of random effects were used to capture the regional variation in the cure fraction and in the survival of the non-cured patients, respectively. This hierarchical model was implemented in a Bayesian framework using a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm. To avoid poor mixing of the Markov chain, when the variance of either set of random effects was close to zero, posterior simulations were based on a parameter-expanded model with tailor-made proposal distributions in Metropolis steps. The random effects allowed the fitting of the cure fraction model to the sparse regional data and the estimation of the regional variation in 10-year cause-specific breast cancer survival with a parsimonious number of parameters. Before 1986, the capital of Finland clearly stood out from the rest, but since then all the 21 hospital districts have achieved approximately the same level of survival. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The hypervariable domain of the mitochondrial control region in Atlantic spiny lobsters and its potential as a marker for investigating phylogeographic structuring.

PubMed

Diniz, Fabio M; Maclean, Norman; Ogawa, Masayoshi; Cintra, Israel H A; Bentzen, Paul

2005-01-01

Atlantic spiny lobsters support major fisheries in northeastern Brazilian waters and in the Caribbean Sea. To avoid reduction in diversity and elimination of distinct stocks, understanding their population dynamics, including structuring of populations and genetic diversity, is critical. We here explore the potential of using the hypervariable domain in the control region of the mitochondrial DNA as a genetic marker to characterize population subdivision in spiny lobsters, using Panulirus argus as the species model. The primers designed on the neighboring conserved genes have amplified the entire control region (approx. 780 bases) of P. argus and other closely related species. Average nucleotide and haplotype diversity within P. argus were found to be high, and population structuring was hypothesized. The data suggest a division of P. argus into genetically different phylogeographic groups. The hypervariable domain seems to be useful for determining genetic differentiation of geographically distinct stocks of P. argus and other Atlantic spiny lobsters.

Whole genome resequencing of the human parasite Schistosoma mansoni reveals population history and effects of selection.

PubMed

Crellen, Thomas; Allan, Fiona; David, Sophia; Durrant, Caroline; Huckvale, Thomas; Holroyd, Nancy; Emery, Aidan M; Rollinson, David; Aanensen, David M; Berriman, Matthew; Webster, Joanne P; Cotton, James A

2016-02-16

Schistosoma mansoni is a parasitic fluke that infects millions of people in the developing world. This study presents the first application of population genomics to S. mansoni based on high-coverage resequencing data from 10 global isolates and an isolate of the closely-related Schistosoma rodhaini, which infects rodents. Using population genetic tests, we document genes under directional and balancing selection in S. mansoni that may facilitate adaptation to the human host. Coalescence modeling reveals the speciation of S. mansoni and S. rodhaini as 107.5-147.6KYA, a period which overlaps with the earliest archaeological evidence for fishing in Africa. Our results indicate that S. mansoni originated in East Africa and experienced a decline in effective population size 20-90KYA, before dispersing across the continent during the Holocene. In addition, we find strong evidence that S. mansoni migrated to the New World with the 16-19th Century Atlantic Slave Trade.

Impact of five tobacco endgame strategies on future smoking prevalence, population health and health system costs: two modelling studies to inform the tobacco endgame.

PubMed

van der Deen, Frederieke S; Wilson, Nick; Cleghorn, Christine L; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Cobiac, Linda J; Nghiem, Nhung; Blakely, Tony

2018-05-01

There is growing international interest in advancing 'the tobacco endgame'. We use New Zealand (Smokefree goal for 2025) as a case study to model the impacts on smoking prevalence (SP), health gains (quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)) and cost savings of (1) 10% annual tobacco tax increases, (2) a tobacco-free generation (TFG), (3) a substantial outlet reduction strategy, (4) a sinking lid on tobacco supply and (5) a combination of 1, 2 and 3. Two models were used: (1) a dynamic population forecasting model for SP and (2) a closed cohort (population alive in 2011) multistate life table model (including 16 tobacco-related diseases) for health gains and costs. All selected tobacco endgame strategies were associated with reductions in SP by 2025, down from 34.7%/14.1% for Māori (indigenous population)/non-Māori in 2011 to 16.0%/6.8% for tax increases; 11.2%/5.6% for the TFG; 17.8%/7.3% for the outlet reduction; 0% for the sinking lid; and 9.3%/4.8% for the combined strategy. Major health gains accrued over the remainder of the 2011 population's lives ranging from 28 900 QALYs (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI)): 16 500 to 48 200; outlet reduction) to 282 000 QALYs (95%UI: 189 000 to 405 000; sinking lid) compared with business-as-usual (3% discounting). The timing of health gain and cost savings greatly differed for the various strategies (with accumulated health gain peaking in 2040 for the sinking lid and 2070 for the TFG). Implementing endgame strategies is needed to achieve tobacco endgame targets and reduce inequalities in smoking. Given such strategies are new, modelling studies provide provisional information on what approaches may be best. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Which System Variables Carry Robust Early Signs of Upcoming Phase Transition? An Ecological Example.

PubMed

Negahbani, Ehsan; Steyn-Ross, D Alistair; Steyn-Ross, Moira L; Aguirre, Luis A

2016-01-01

Growth of critical fluctuations prior to catastrophic state transition is generally regarded as a universal phenomenon, providing a valuable early warning signal in dynamical systems. Using an ecological fisheries model of three populations (juvenile prey J, adult prey A and predator P), a recent study has reported silent early warning signals obtained from P and A populations prior to saddle-node (SN) bifurcation, and thus concluded that early warning signals are not universal. By performing a full eigenvalue analysis of the same system we demonstrate that while J and P populations undergo SN bifurcation, A does not jump to a new state, so it is not expected to carry early warning signs. In contrast with the previous study, we capture a significant increase in the noise-induced fluctuations in the P population, but only on close approach to the bifurcation point; it is not clear why the P variance initially shows a decaying trend. Here we resolve this puzzle using observability measures from control theory. By computing the observability coefficient for the system from the recordings of each population considered one at a time, we are able to quantify their ability to describe changing internal dynamics. We demonstrate that precursor fluctuations are best observed using only the J variable, and also P variable if close to transition. Using observability analysis we are able to describe why a poorly observable variable (P) has poor forecasting capabilities although a full eigenvalue analysis shows that this variable undergoes a bifurcation. We conclude that observability analysis provides complementary information to identify the variables carrying early-warning signs about impending state transition.

Oh sister, where art thou? Spatial population structure and the evolution of an altruistic defence trait.

PubMed

Pamminger, T; Foitzik, S; Metzler, D; Pennings, P S

2014-11-01

The evolution of parasite virulence and host defences is affected by population structure. This effect has been confirmed in studies focusing on large spatial scales, whereas the importance of local structure is not well understood. Slavemaking ants are social parasites that exploit workers of another species to rear their offspring. Enslaved workers of the host species Temnothorax longispinosus have been found to exhibit an effective post-enslavement defence behaviour: enslaved workers were observed killing a large proportion of the parasites' offspring. As enslaved workers do not reproduce, they gain no direct fitness benefit from this 'rebellion' behaviour. However, there may be an indirect benefit: neighbouring host nests that are related to 'rebel' nests can benefit from a reduced raiding pressure, as a result of the reduction in parasite nest size due to the enslaved workers' killing behaviour. We use a simple mathematical model to examine whether the small-scale population structure of the host species could explain the evolution of this potentially altruistic defence trait against slavemaking ants. We find that this is the case if enslaved host workers are related to nearby host nests. In a population genetic study, we confirm that enslaved workers are, indeed, more closely related to host nests within the raiding range of their resident slavemaker nest, than to host nests outside the raiding range. This small-scale population structure seems to be a result of polydomy (e.g. the occupation of several nests in close proximity by a single colony) and could have enabled the evolution of 'rebellion' by kin selection. © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

The history of human populations in the Japanese Archipelago inferred from genome-wide SNP data with a special reference to the Ainu and the Ryukyuan populations.

PubMed

Jinam, Timothy; Nishida, Nao; Hirai, Momoki; Kawamura, Shoji; Oota, Hiroki; Umetsu, Kazuo; Kimura, Ryosuke; Ohashi, Jun; Tajima, Atsushi; Yamamoto, Toshimichi; Tanabe, Hideyuki; Mano, Shuhei; Suto, Yumiko; Kaname, Tadashi; Naritomi, Kenji; Yanagi, Kumiko; Niikawa, Norio; Omoto, Keiichi; Tokunaga, Katsushi; Saitou, Naruya

2012-12-01

The Japanese Archipelago stretches over 4000 km from north to south, and is the homeland of the three human populations; the Ainu, the Mainland Japanese and the Ryukyuan. The archeological evidence of human residence on this Archipelago goes back to >30 000 years, and various migration routes and root populations have been proposed. Here, we determined close to one million single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for the Ainu and the Ryukyuan, and compared these with existing data sets. This is the first report of these genome-wide SNP data. Major findings are: (1) Recent admixture with the Mainland Japanese was observed for more than one third of the Ainu individuals from principal component analysis and frappe analyses; (2) The Ainu population seems to have experienced admixture with another population, and a combination of two types of admixtures is the unique characteristics of this population; (3) The Ainu and the Ryukyuan are tightly clustered with 100% bootstrap probability followed by the Mainland Japanese in the phylogenetic trees of East Eurasian populations. These results clearly support the dual structure model on the Japanese Archipelago populations, though the origins of the Jomon and the Yayoi people still remain to be solved.

Genome-wide Selective Sweeps in Natural Bacterial Populations Revealed by Time-series Metagenomics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chan, Leong-Keat; Bendall, Matthew L.; Malfatti, Stephanie

2014-06-18

Multiple evolutionary models have been proposed to explain the formation of genetically and ecologically distinct bacterial groups. Time-series metagenomics enables direct observation of evolutionary processes in natural populations, and if applied over a sufficiently long time frame, this approach could capture events such as gene-specific or genome-wide selective sweeps. Direct observations of either process could help resolve how distinct groups form in natural microbial assemblages. Here, from a three-year metagenomic study of a freshwater lake, we explore changes in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequencies and patterns of gene gain and loss in populations of Chlorobiaceae and Methylophilaceae. SNP analyses revealedmore » substantial genetic heterogeneity within these populations, although the degree of heterogeneity varied considerably among closely related, co-occurring Methylophilaceae populations. SNP allele frequencies, as well as the relative abundance of certain genes, changed dramatically over time in each population. Interestingly, SNP diversity was purged at nearly every genome position in one of the Chlorobiaceae populations over the course of three years, while at the same time multiple genes either swept through or were swept from this population. These patterns were consistent with a genome-wide selective sweep, a process predicted by the ‘ecotype model’ of diversification, but not previously observed in natural populations.« less

A crossbred reference population can improve the response to genomic selection for crossbred performance.

PubMed

Esfandyari, Hadi; Sørensen, Anders Christian; Bijma, Piter

2015-09-29

Breeding goals in a crossbreeding system should be defined at the commercial crossbred level. However, selection is often performed to improve purebred performance. A genomic selection (GS) model that includes dominance effects can be used to select purebreds for crossbred performance. Optimization of the GS model raises the question of whether marker effects should be estimated from data on the pure lines or crossbreds. Therefore, the first objective of this study was to compare response to selection of crossbreds by simulating a two-way crossbreeding program with either a purebred or a crossbred training population. We assumed a trait of interest that was controlled by loci with additive and dominance effects. Animals were selected on estimated breeding values for crossbred performance. There was no genotype by environment interaction. Linkage phase and strength of linkage disequilibrium between quantitative trait loci (QTL) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) can differ between breeds, which causes apparent effects of SNPs to be line-dependent. Thus, our second objective was to compare response to GS based on crossbred phenotypes when the line origin of alleles was taken into account or not in the estimation of breeding values. Training on crossbred animals yielded a larger response to selection in crossbred offspring compared to training on both pure lines separately or on both pure lines combined into a single reference population. Response to selection in crossbreds was larger if both phenotypes and genotypes were collected on crossbreds than if phenotypes were only recorded on crossbreds and genotypes on their parents. If both parental lines were distantly related, tracing the line origin of alleles improved genomic prediction, whereas if both parental lines were closely related and the reference population was small, it was better to ignore the line origin of alleles. Response to selection in crossbreeding programs can be increased by training on crossbred genotypes and phenotypes. Moreover, if the reference population is sufficiently large and both pure lines are not very closely related, tracing the line origin of alleles in crossbreds improves genomic prediction.

A multilocus population genetic survey of the greater sage-grouse across their range.

PubMed

Oyler-McCance, S J; Taylor, S E; Quinn, T W

2005-04-01

The distribution and abundance of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) have declined dramatically, and as a result the species has become the focus of conservation efforts. We conducted a range-wide genetic survey of the species which included 46 populations and over 1000 individuals using both mitochondrial sequence data and data from seven nuclear microsatellites. Nested clade and structure analyses revealed that, in general, the greater sage-grouse populations follow an isolation-by-distance model of restricted gene flow. This suggests that movements of the greater sage-grouse are typically among neighbouring populations and not across the species, range. This may have important implications if management is considering translocations as they should involve neighbouring rather than distant populations to preserve any effects of local adaptation. We identified two populations in Washington with low levels of genetic variation that reflect severe habitat loss and dramatic population decline. Managers of these populations may consider augmentation from geographically close populations. One population (Lyon/Mono) on the southwestern edge of the species' range appears to have been isolated from all other greater sage-grouse populations. This population is sufficiently genetically distinct that it warrants protection and management as a separate unit. The genetic data presented here, in conjunction with large-scale demographic and habitat data, will provide an integrated approach to conservation efforts for the greater sage-grouse.

The Rising Rate of Rural Hospital Closures.

PubMed

Kaufman, Brystana G; Thomas, Sharita R; Randolph, Randy K; Perry, Julie R; Thompson, Kristie W; Holmes, George M; Pink, George H

2016-01-01

Since 2010, the rate of rural hospital closures has increased significantly. This study is a preliminary look at recent closures and a formative step in research to understand the causes and the impact on rural communities. The 2009 financial performance and market characteristics of rural hospitals that closed from 2010 through 2014 were compared to rural hospitals that remained open during the same period, stratified by critical access hospitals (CAHs) and other rural hospitals (ORHs). Differences were tested using Pearson's chi-square (categorical variables) and Wilcoxon rank test of medians. The relationships between negative operating margin and (1) market factors and (2) utilization/staffing factors were explored using logistic regression. In 2009, CAHs that subsequently closed from 2010 through 2014 had, in general, lower levels of profitability, liquidity, equity, patient volume, and staffing. In addition, ORHs that closed had smaller market shares and operated in markets with smaller populations compared to ORHs that remained open. Odds of unprofitability were associated with both market and utilization factors. Although half of the closed hospitals ceased providing health services altogether, the remainder have since converted to an alternative health care delivery model. Financial and market characteristics appear to be associated with closure of rural hospitals from 2010 through 2014, suggesting that it is possible to identify hospitals at risk of closure. As closure rates show no sign of abating, it is important to study the drivers of distress in rural hospitals, as well as the potential for alternative health care delivery models. © 2015 National Rural Health Association.

Relevance of workplace social mixing during influenza pandemics: an experimental modelling study of workplace cultures.

PubMed

Timpka, T; Eriksson, H; Holm, E; Strömgren, M; Ekberg, J; Spreco, A; Dahlström, Ö

2016-07-01

Workplaces are one of the most important regular meeting places in society. The aim of this study was to use simulation experiments to examine the impact of different workplace cultures on influenza dissemination during pandemics. The impact is investigated by experiments with defined social-mixing patterns at workplaces using semi-virtual models based on authentic sociodemographic and geographical data from a North European community (population 136 000). A simulated pandemic outbreak was found to affect 33% of the total population in the community with the reference academic-creative workplace culture; virus transmission at the workplace accounted for 10·6% of the cases. A model with a prevailing industrial-administrative workplace culture generated 11% lower incidence than the reference model, while the model with a self-employed workplace culture (also corresponding to a hypothetical scenario with all workplaces closed) produced 20% fewer cases. The model representing an academic-creative workplace culture with restricted workplace interaction generated 12% lower cumulative incidence compared to the reference model. The results display important theoretical associations between workplace social-mixing cultures and community-level incidence rates during influenza pandemics. Social interaction patterns at workplaces should be taken into consideration when analysing virus transmission patterns during influenza pandemics.

ADAM33 polymorphisms are associated with asthma and a distinctive palm dermatoglyphic pattern

PubMed Central

XUE, WEILIN; HAN, WEI; ZHOU, ZHAO-SHAN

2013-01-01

A close correlation between asthma and palm dermatoglyphic patterns has been observed in previous studies, but the underlying genetic mechanisms have not been investigated. A disintegrin and metalloprotein-33 (ADAM33) polymorphisms are important in the development of asthma and other atopic diseases. To investigate the underlying mechanisms of the association between asthma and distinctive palm dermatoglyphic patterns, thirteen ADAM33 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were analyzed for the association between asthma and palm dermatoglyphic patterns in a population of 400 asthmatic patients and 200 healthy controls. Based on the results, five SNPs, rs44707 (codominant model, P=0.031; log-additive model, P=0.0084), rs2787094 (overdominant model, P=0.049), rs678881 (codominant model, P=0.028; overdominant model, P=0.0083), rs677044 (codominant model, P=0.013; log-additive model, P=0.0033) and rs512625 (dominant model, P=0.033), were associated with asthma in this population. Two SNPs, rs44707 (dominant model, P=0.042) and rs2787094 (codominant model, P=0.014; recessive model, P=0.0038), were observed in the asthma patients with the distinctive palm pattern. As rs44707 and rs2787094 are associated with asthma and a distinctive palm pattern, the data suggest that ADAM33 polymorphisms are correlated with asthma and may be the underlying genetic basis of the association between asthma and palm dermatoglyphic patterns. PMID:24141861

Inferring demographic structure with moccasin size data from the Promontory Caves, Utah.

PubMed

Billinger, Michael; Ives, John W

2015-01-01

The moccasin assemblage Julian Steward recovered from the Promontory caves in 1930-31 provides a novel example in which material culture can be used to understand the structure of an AD thirteenth century population. Several studies shed light on the relationship between shoe size, foot size, and stature. We develop an anthropometric model for understanding the composition of the Promontory Cave population by using moccasin size as a proxy for foot size. We then predict the stature of the individual who would have worn a moccasin. Stature is closely related to age for children, subadults and adult males. Although there are predictable sex and age factors biasing moccasin discard practices, moccasin dimensions suggest a relatively large proportion of children and subadults occupied the Promontory caves. This bison and antelope hunting population appears to have thrived during its stay on Promontory Point. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Density thresholds for Mopeia virus invasion and persistence in its host Mastomys natalensis.

PubMed

Goyens, J; Reijniers, J; Borremans, B; Leirs, H

2013-01-21

Well-established theoretical models predict host density thresholds for invasion and persistence of parasites with a density-dependent transmission. Studying such thresholds in reality, however, is not obvious because it requires long-term data for several fluctuating populations of different size. We developed a spatially explicit and individual-based SEIR model of Mopeia virus in multimammate mice Mastomys natalensis. This is an interesting model system for studying abundance thresholds because the host is the most common African rodent, populations fluctuate considerably and the virus is closely related to Lassa virus but non-pathogenic to humans so can be studied safely in the field. The simulations show that, while host density clearly is important, sharp thresholds are only to be expected for persistence (and not for invasion), since at short time-spans (as during invasion), stochasticity is determining. Besides host density, also the spatial extent of the host population is important. We observe the repeated local occurrence of herd immunity, leading to a decrease in transmission of the virus, while even a limited amount of dispersal can have a strong influence in spreading and re-igniting the transmission. The model is most sensitive to the duration of the infectious stage, the size of the home range and the transmission coefficient, so these are important factors to determine experimentally in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Poecilia picta, a Close Relative to the Guppy, Exhibits Red Male Coloration Polymorphism: A System for Phylogenetic Comparisons

PubMed Central

Lindholm, Anna K.; Sandkam, Ben; Pohl, Kristina; Breden, Felix

2015-01-01

Studies on the evolution of female preference and male color polymorphism frequently focus on single species since traits and preferences are thought to co-evolve. The guppy, Poecilia reticulata, has long been a premier model for such studies because female preferences and orange coloration are well known to covary, especially in upstream/downstream pairs of populations. However, focused single species studies lack the explanatory power of the comparative method, which requires detailed knowledge of multiple species with known evolutionary relationships. Here we describe a red color polymorphism in Poecilia picta, a close relative to guppies. We show that this polymorphism is restricted to males and is maintained in natural populations of mainland South America. Using tests of female preference we show female P. picta are not more attracted to red males, despite preferences for red/orange in closely related species, such as P. reticulata and P. parae. Male color patterns in these closely related species are different from P. picta in that they occur in discrete patches and are frequently Y chromosome-linked. P. reticulata have an almost infinite number of male patterns, while P. parae males occur in discrete morphs. We show the red male polymorphism in P. picta extends continuously throughout the body and is not a Y-linked trait despite the theoretical prediction that sexually-selected characters should often be linked to the heterogametic sex chromosome. The presence/absence of red male coloration of P. picta described here makes this an ideal system for phylogenetic comparisons that could reveal the evolutionary forces maintaining mate choice and color polymorphisms in this speciose group. PMID:26529081

No evidence for inbreeding avoidance in a natural population of song sparrows (Melospiza melodia).

PubMed

Keller, L F; Arcese, P

1998-09-01

We studied mate choice and inbreeding avoidance a natural population of song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) on Mandarte Island, Canada. Inbreeding occurred regularly: 59% all matings were between known relatives. We tested for inbreeding avoidance by comparing the observed levels of inbreeding to those expected if mate choice had been random with respect to relatedness. Independent of our assumptions about the availability of mates in the random mating model, we found that the expected and observed distributions of inbreeding coefficients were similar, as was the expected and observed frequency of close (f >/= 0.125) inbreeding. Furthermore, there was no difference in relatedness observed pairs and those that would have resulted had birds mated instead with their nearest neighbors. The only evidence to suggest any inbreeding avoidance was a reduced rate of parent-offspring matings as compared to one random mating model but not the other. Hence, despite substantial inbreeding depression in this population, we found little evidence for inbreeding avoidance through mate choice. We present a simple model to suggest that variation in inbreeding avoidance behaviors in birds may arise from differences in survival rates: in species with low survival rates, the costs of forfeiting matings to avoid inbreeding may exceed the costs of inbreeding.

The components of kin competition.

PubMed

Van Dyken, J David

2010-10-01

It is well known that competition among kin alters the rate and often the direction of evolution in subdivided populations. Yet much remains unclear about the ecological and demographic causes of kin competition, or what role life cycle plays in promoting or ameliorating its effects. Using the multilevel Price equation, I derive a general equation for evolution in structured populations under an arbitrary intensity of kin competition. This equation partitions the effects of selection and demography, and recovers numerous previous models as special cases. I quantify the degree of kin competition, α, which explicitly depends on life cycle. I show how life cycle and demographic assumptions can be incorporated into kin selection models via α, revealing life cycles that are more or less permissive of altruism. As an example, I give closed-form results for Hamilton's rule in a three-stage life cycle. Although results are sensitive to life cycle in general, I identify three demographic conditions that give life cycle invariant results. Under the infinite island model, α is a function of the scale of density regulation and dispersal rate, effectively disentangling these two phenomena. Population viscosity per se does not impede kin selection. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2010 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Discrete and continuum links to a nonlinear coupled transport problem of interacting populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duong, M. H.; Muntean, A.; Richardson, O. M.

2017-07-01

We are interested in exploring interacting particle systems that can be seen as microscopic models for a particular structure of coupled transport flux arising when different populations are jointly evolving. The scenarios we have in mind are inspired by the dynamics of pedestrian flows in open spaces and are intimately connected to cross-diffusion and thermo-diffusion problems holding a variational structure. The tools we use include a suitable structure of the relative entropy controlling TV-norms, the construction of Lyapunov functionals and particular closed-form solutions to nonlinear transport equations, a hydrodynamics limiting procedure due to Philipowski, as well as the construction of numerical approximates to both the continuum limit problem in 2D and to the original interacting particle systems.

Public health nurses' contribution to maternal and infant health in Ireland.

PubMed

O'Dwyer, Patricia

2009-05-01

As the health practitioners most closely involved with new mothers and babies, public health nurses in Ireland have an important contribution to make to the health of this population group.They deliver a service of preventative health care to mothers and babies that begins in the postnatal period. This paper considers the role of the public health nurse in maternal and infant health, and explores the notion that public health nurses are afforded the appropriate opportunities to contribute to the health of this population group. In order to reduce the health inequalities that are known to exist for new mothers and babies, the commitment of the health executive is needed for the development of a new model of delivering nursing services in the community.

Spatiotemporal variation in survival rates: implications for population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Armitage, Kenneth B; Blumstein, Daniel T; Oli, Madan K

2006-04-01

Spatiotemporal variation in age-specific survival rates can profoundly influence population dynamics, but few studies of vertebrates have thoroughly investigated both spatial and temporal variability in age-specific survival rates. We used 28 years (1976-2003) of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data from 17 locations to parameterize an age-structured Cormack-Jolly-Seber model, and investigated spatial and temporal variation in age-specific annual survival rates of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris). Survival rates varied both spatially and temporally, with survival of younger animals exhibiting the highest degree of variation. Juvenile survival rates varied from 0.52 +/- 0.05 to 0.78 +/- 0.10 among sites and from 0.15 +/- 0.14 to 0.89 +/- 0.06 over time. Adult survival rates varied from 0.62 +/- 0.09 to 0.80 +/- 0.03 among sites, but did not vary significantly over time. We used reverse-time CMR models to estimate the realized population growth rate (lamda), and to investigate the influence of the observed variation in age-specific survival rates on lamda. The realized growth rate of the population closely covaried with, and was significantly influenced by, spatiotemporal variation in juvenile survival rate. High variability in juvenile survival rates over space and time clearly influenced the dynamics of our study population and is also likely to be an important determinant of the spatiotemporal variation in the population dynamics of other mammals with similar life history characteristics.

Optimizing agent-based transmission models for infectious diseases.

PubMed

Willem, Lander; Stijven, Sean; Tijskens, Engelbert; Beutels, Philippe; Hens, Niel; Broeckhove, Jan

2015-06-02

Infectious disease modeling and computational power have evolved such that large-scale agent-based models (ABMs) have become feasible. However, the increasing hardware complexity requires adapted software designs to achieve the full potential of current high-performance workstations. We have found large performance differences with a discrete-time ABM for close-contact disease transmission due to data locality. Sorting the population according to the social contact clusters reduced simulation time by a factor of two. Data locality and model performance can also be improved by storing person attributes separately instead of using person objects. Next, decreasing the number of operations by sorting people by health status before processing disease transmission has also a large impact on model performance. Depending of the clinical attack rate, target population and computer hardware, the introduction of the sort phase decreased the run time from 26% up to more than 70%. We have investigated the application of parallel programming techniques and found that the speedup is significant but it drops quickly with the number of cores. We observed that the effect of scheduling and workload chunk size is model specific and can make a large difference. Investment in performance optimization of ABM simulator code can lead to significant run time reductions. The key steps are straightforward: the data structure for the population and sorting people on health status before effecting disease propagation. We believe these conclusions to be valid for a wide range of infectious disease ABMs. We recommend that future studies evaluate the impact of data management, algorithmic procedures and parallelization on model performance.

Applying the compound Poisson process model to the reporting of injury-related mortality rates.

PubMed

Kegler, Scott R

2007-02-16

Injury-related mortality rate estimates are often analyzed under the assumption that case counts follow a Poisson distribution. Certain types of injury incidents occasionally involve multiple fatalities, however, resulting in dependencies between cases that are not reflected in the simple Poisson model and which can affect even basic statistical analyses. This paper explores the compound Poisson process model as an alternative, emphasizing adjustments to some commonly used interval estimators for population-based rates and rate ratios. The adjusted estimators involve relatively simple closed-form computations, which in the absence of multiple-case incidents reduce to familiar estimators based on the simpler Poisson model. Summary data from the National Violent Death Reporting System are referenced in several examples demonstrating application of the proposed methodology.

Genetic similarity of the Hainan medaka populations collected from hyper- and hypo-osmotic environments in northern Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayakawa, Hideki; Le, Quang Dung; Kinoshita, Masato; Takehana, Yusuke; Sakuma, Kei; Takeshima, Hirohiko; Kojima, Shigeaki; Naruse, Kiyoshi; Inoue, Koji

2015-06-01

Ricefishes of the genus Oryzias, including Japanese medaka ( O. latipes), are known as excellent model organisms for studies in various fields of science. Some species of the genus inhabit brackish water, and such species are recognized to be useful to investigate physiological phenomena in seawater. However, only a limited number of species have been recorded from brackish waters. In addition, there is no information about the genetic relationship among populations inhabiting sites with different salinities. Here we report the discovery of Oryzias fish in two locations near Haiphong, northern Vietnam, a brackish mangrove planting area and a freshwater pond. A phylogenetic analysis using mitochondrial 12S and 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene sequences indicated that the fish from the two localities are the same species, Hainan medaka, O. curvinotus. Population genetic analysis using the mitochondrial 12S and 16S rRNA gene sequences revealed a close genetic relationship between the two populations. These results suggest that O. curvinotus is adaptable to both hyperosmotic and hypoosmotic environments. Due to its osmotic adaptability and ease of rearing in the laboratory, this species is expected to become a model for marine environmental and toxicological studies, as well as for studies of osmotic adaptation mechanisms.

Multilocus methods for estimating population sizes, migration rates and divergence time, with applications to the divergence of Drosophila pseudoobscura and D. persimilis.

PubMed Central

Hey, Jody; Nielsen, Rasmus

2004-01-01

The genetic study of diverging, closely related populations is required for basic questions on demography and speciation, as well as for biodiversity and conservation research. However, it is often unclear whether divergence is due simply to separation or whether populations have also experienced gene flow. These questions can be addressed with a full model of population separation with gene flow, by applying a Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating the posterior probability distribution of model parameters. We have generalized this method and made it applicable to data from multiple unlinked loci. These loci can vary in their modes of inheritance, and inheritance scalars can be implemented either as constants or as parameters to be estimated. By treating inheritance scalars as parameters it is also possible to address variation among loci in the impact via linkage of recurrent selective sweeps or background selection. These methods are applied to a large multilocus data set from Drosophila pseudoobscura and D. persimilis. The species are estimated to have diverged approximately 500,000 years ago. Several loci have nonzero estimates of gene flow since the initial separation of the species, with considerable variation in gene flow estimates among loci, in both directions between the species. PMID:15238526

A generating function approach to HIV transmission with dynamic contact rates

DOE PAGES

Romero-Severson, Ethan O.; Meadors, Grant D.; Volz, Erik M.

2014-04-24

The basic reproduction number, R 0, is often defined as the average number of infections generated by a newly infected individual in a fully susceptible population. The interpretation, meaning, and derivation of R 0 are controversial. However, in the context of mean field models, R 0 demarcates the epidemic threshold below which the infected population approaches zero in the limit of time. In this manner, R 0 has been proposed as a method for understanding the relative impact of public health interventions with respect to disease eliminations from a theoretical perspective. The use of R 0 is made more complexmore » by both the strong dependency of R 0 on the model form and the stochastic nature of transmission. A common assumption in models of HIV transmission that have closed form expressions for R 0 is that a single individual’s behavior is constant over time. For this research, we derive expressions for both R 0 and probability of an epidemic in a finite population under the assumption that people periodically change their sexual behavior over time. We illustrate the use of generating functions as a general framework to model the effects of potentially complex assumptions on the number of transmissions generated by a newly infected person in a susceptible population. In conclusion, we find that the relationship between the probability of an epidemic and R 0 is not straightforward, but, that as the rate of change in sexual behavior increases both R 0 and the probability of an epidemic also decrease.« less

A generating function approach to HIV transmission with dynamic contact rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Romero-Severson, Ethan O.; Meadors, Grant D.; Volz, Erik M.

The basic reproduction number, R 0, is often defined as the average number of infections generated by a newly infected individual in a fully susceptible population. The interpretation, meaning, and derivation of R 0 are controversial. However, in the context of mean field models, R 0 demarcates the epidemic threshold below which the infected population approaches zero in the limit of time. In this manner, R 0 has been proposed as a method for understanding the relative impact of public health interventions with respect to disease eliminations from a theoretical perspective. The use of R 0 is made more complexmore » by both the strong dependency of R 0 on the model form and the stochastic nature of transmission. A common assumption in models of HIV transmission that have closed form expressions for R 0 is that a single individual’s behavior is constant over time. For this research, we derive expressions for both R 0 and probability of an epidemic in a finite population under the assumption that people periodically change their sexual behavior over time. We illustrate the use of generating functions as a general framework to model the effects of potentially complex assumptions on the number of transmissions generated by a newly infected person in a susceptible population. In conclusion, we find that the relationship between the probability of an epidemic and R 0 is not straightforward, but, that as the rate of change in sexual behavior increases both R 0 and the probability of an epidemic also decrease.« less

KEPLER PLANETS: A TALE OF EVAPORATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Owen, James E.; Wu, Yanqin, E-mail: jowen@cita.utoronto.ca, E-mail: wu@astro.utoronto.ca

2013-10-01

Inspired by the Kepler mission's planet discoveries, we consider the thermal contraction of planets close to their parent star, under the influence of evaporation. The mass-loss rates are based on hydrodynamic models of evaporation that include both X-ray and EUV irradiation. We find that only low mass planets with hydrogen envelopes are significantly affected by evaporation, with evaporation being able to remove massive hydrogen envelopes inward of ∼0.1 AU for Neptune-mass objects, while evaporation is negligible for Jupiter-mass objects. Moreover, most of the evaporation occurs in the first 100 Myr of stars' lives when they are more chromospherically active. Wemore » construct a theoretical population of planets with varying core masses, envelope masses, orbital separations, and stellar spectral types, and compare this population with the sizes and densities measured for low-mass planets, both in the Kepler mission and from radial velocity surveys. This exercise leads us to conclude that evaporation is the driving force of evolution for close-in Kepler planets. In fact, some 50% of the Kepler planet candidates may have been significantly eroded. Evaporation explains two striking correlations observed in these objects: a lack of large radius/low density planets close to the stars and a possible bimodal distribution in planet sizes with a deficit of planets around 2 R{sub ⊕}. Planets that have experienced high X-ray exposures are generally smaller than this size, and those with lower X-ray exposures are typically larger. A bimodal planet size distribution is naturally predicted by the evaporation model, where, depending on their X-ray exposure, close-in planets can either hold on to hydrogen envelopes ∼0.5%-1% in mass or be stripped entirely. To quantitatively reproduce the observed features, we argue that not only do low-mass Kepler planets need to be made of rocky cores surrounded with hydrogen envelopes, but few of them should have initial masses above 20 M{sub ⊕} and the majority of them should have core masses of a few Earth masses.« less

Regularity of beating of small clusters of embryonic chick ventricular heart-cells: experiment vs. stochastic single-channel population model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krogh-Madsen, Trine; Kold Taylor, Louise; Skriver, Anne D.; Schaffer, Peter; Guevara, Michael R.

2017-09-01

The transmembrane potential is recorded from small isopotential clusters of 2-4 embryonic chick ventricular cells spontaneously generating action potentials. We analyze the cycle-to-cycle fluctuations in the time between successive action potentials (the interbeat interval or IBI). We also convert an existing model of electrical activity in the cluster, which is formulated as a Hodgkin-Huxley-like deterministic system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations describing five individual ionic currents, into a stochastic model consisting of a population of ˜20 000 independently and randomly gating ionic channels, with the randomness being set by a real physical stochastic process (radio static). This stochastic model, implemented using the Clay-DeFelice algorithm, reproduces the fluctuations seen experimentally: e.g., the coefficient of variation (standard deviation/mean) of IBI is 4.3% in the model vs. the 3.9% average value of the 17 clusters studied. The model also replicates all but one of several other quantitative measures of the experimental results, including the power spectrum and correlation integral of the voltage, as well as the histogram, Poincaré plot, serial correlation coefficients, power spectrum, detrended fluctuation analysis, approximate entropy, and sample entropy of IBI. The channel noise from one particular ionic current (IKs), which has channel kinetics that are relatively slow compared to that of the other currents, makes the major contribution to the fluctuations in IBI. Reproduction of the experimental coefficient of variation of IBI by adding a Gaussian white noise-current into the deterministic model necessitates using an unrealistically high noise-current amplitude. Indeed, a major implication of the modelling results is that, given the wide range of time-scales over which the various species of channels open and close, only a cell-specific stochastic model that is formulated taking into consideration the widely different ranges in the frequency content of the channel-noise produced by the opening and closing of several different types of channels will be able to reproduce precisely the various effects due to membrane noise seen in a particular electrophysiological preparation.

Two-population model for medial temporal lobe neurons: The vast majority are almost silent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magyar, Andrew; Collins, John

2015-07-01

Recordings in the human medial temporal lobe have found many neurons that respond to pictures (and related stimuli) of just one particular person of those presented. It has been proposed that these are concept cells, responding to just a single concept. However, a direct experimental test of the concept cell idea appears impossible, because it would need the measurement of the response of each cell to enormous numbers of other stimuli. Here we propose a new statistical method for analysis of the data that gives a more powerful way to analyze how close data are to the concept-cell idea. Central to the model is the neuronal sparsity, defined as the total fraction of stimuli that elicit an above-threshold response in the neuron. The model exploits the large number of sampled neurons to give sensitivity to situations where the average response sparsity is much less than one response for the number of presented stimuli. We show that a conventional model where a single sparsity is postulated for all neurons gives an extremely poor fit to the data. In contrast, a model with two dramatically different populations gives an excellent fit to data from the hippocampus and entorhinal cortex. In the hippocampus, one population has 7% of the cells with a 2.6% sparsity. But a much larger fraction (93%) respond to only 0.1% of the stimuli. This can result in an extreme bias in the responsiveness of reported neurons compared with a typical neuron. Finally, we show how to allow for the fact that some identified units correspond to multiple neurons and find that our conclusions at the neural level are quantitatively changed but strengthened, with an even stronger difference between the two populations.

Estimating survival and breeding probability for pond-breeding amphibians: a modified robust design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, L.L.; Kendall, W.L.; Church, D.R.; Wilbur, H.M.

2004-01-01

Many studies of pond-breeding amphibians involve sampling individuals during migration to and from breeding habitats. Interpreting population processes and dynamics from these studies is difficult because (1) only a proportion of the population is observable each season, while an unknown proportion remains unobservable (e.g., non-breeding adults) and (2) not all observable animals are captured. Imperfect capture probability can be easily accommodated in capture?recapture models, but temporary transitions between observable and unobservable states, often referred to as temporary emigration, is known to cause problems in both open- and closed-population models. We develop a multistate mark?recapture (MSMR) model, using an open-robust design that permits one entry and one exit from the study area per season. Our method extends previous temporary emigration models (MSMR with an unobservable state) in two ways. First, we relax the assumption of demographic closure (no mortality) between consecutive (secondary) samples, allowing estimation of within-pond survival. Also, we add the flexibility to express survival probability of unobservable individuals (e.g., ?non-breeders?) as a function of the survival probability of observable animals while in the same, terrestrial habitat. This allows for potentially different annual survival probabilities for observable and unobservable animals. We apply our model to a relictual population of eastern tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum). Despite small sample sizes, demographic parameters were estimated with reasonable precision. We tested several a priori biological hypotheses and found evidence for seasonal differences in pond survival. Our methods could be applied to a variety of pond-breeding species and other taxa where individuals are captured entering or exiting a common area (e.g., spawning or roosting area, hibernacula).

Drug scheduling of cancer chemotherapy based on natural actor-critic approach.

PubMed

Ahn, Inkyung; Park, Jooyoung

2011-11-01

Recently, reinforcement learning methods have drawn significant interests in the area of artificial intelligence, and have been successfully applied to various decision-making problems. In this paper, we study the applicability of the NAC (natural actor-critic) approach, a state-of-the-art reinforcement learning method, to the drug scheduling of cancer chemotherapy for an ODE (ordinary differential equation)-based tumor growth model. ODE-based cancer dynamics modeling is an active research area, and many different mathematical models have been proposed. Among these, we use the model proposed by de Pillis and Radunskaya (2003), which considers the growth of tumor cells and their interaction with normal cells and immune cells. The NAC approach is applied to this ODE model with the goal of minimizing the tumor cell population and the drug amount while maintaining the adequate population levels of normal cells and immune cells. In the framework of the NAC approach, the drug dose is regarded as the control input, and the reward signal is defined as a function of the control input and the cell populations of tumor cells, normal cells, and immune cells. According to the control policy found by the NAC approach, effective drug scheduling in cancer chemotherapy for the considered scenarios has turned out to be close to the strategy of continuing drug injection from the beginning until an appropriate time. Also, simulation results showed that the NAC approach can yield better performance than conventional pulsed chemotherapy. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding the Effects of Dissolution on the Mg/Ca Paleothermometer in Planktic Foraminifera: Evidence From a Novel Individual Foraminifera Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rongstad, Brigitta L.; Marchitto, Thomas M.; Herguera, Juan Carlos

2017-12-01

It is well documented that partial dissolution of planktic foraminiferal tests results in a reduction of Mg/Ca ratios, and hence of inferred calcification temperatures; however, traditional analysis techniques have made it difficult to identify the exact mechanism through which Mg is lost. Three hypotheses have been proposed as models for Mg loss for a given extent of dissolution: (1) a percent loss of Mg in individuals, (2) a molar loss of Mg in individuals, and (3) a loss of the highest-Mg (warmest) individuals from a population. It is vital to better constrain these models as they have very different implications for Mg/Ca paleotemperature dissolution corrections. Here we use a novel individual foraminifera Mg/Ca method to examine the effects of dissolution on the Mg/Ca paleothermometer in three species of planktic foraminifera, Globigerinoides ruber, Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, and Pulleniatina obliquiloculata, from a depth transect of core tops on the Ontong Java Plateau in the western equatorial Pacific. With the exception of the most heavily dissolved population of P. obliquiloculata, our data best support a percent Mg loss model as indicated by the preservation of inferred temperature distribution shapes among the sampled populations and the close fit of the simulated percent Mg loss model to the observed data. Coupled with estimates for foraminiferal dissolution, identification of the percent Mg loss model will allow for more accurate dissolution corrections in Mg/Ca paleothermometry work.

Effect of (social) media on the political figure fever model: Jokowi-fever model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yong, Benny; Samat, Nor Azah

2016-02-01

In recent years, political figures begin to utilize social media as one of alternative to engage in communication with their supporters. Publics referred to Jokowi, one of the candidates in Indonesia presidential election in 2014, as the first politician in Indonesia to truly understand the power of social media. Social media is very important in shaping public opinion. In this paper, effect of social media on the Jokowi-fever model in a closed population will be discussed. Supporter population is divided into three class sub-population, i.e susceptible supporters, Jokowi infected supporters, and recovered supporters. For case no positive media, there are two equilibrium points; the Jokowi-fever free equilibrium point in which it locally stable if basic reproductive ratio less than one and the Jokowi-fever endemic equilibrium point in which it locally stable if basic reproductive ratio greater than one. For case no negative media, there is only the Jokowi-fever endemic equilibrium point in which it locally stable if the condition is satisfied. Generally, for case positive media proportion is positive, there is no Jokowi-fever free equilibrium point. The numerical result shows that social media gives significantly effect on Jokowi-fever model, a sharp increase or a sharp decrease in the number of Jokowi infected supporters. It is also shown that the boredom rate is one of the sensitive parameters in the Jokowi-fever model; it affects the number of Jokowi infected supporters.

Closing the Health Care Gap in Communities: A Safety Net System Approach.

PubMed

Gabow, Patricia A

2016-10-01

The goal of U.S. health care should be good health for every American. This daunting goal will require closing the health care gap in communities with a particular focus on the most vulnerable populations and the safety net institutions that disproportionately serve these communities. This Commentary describes Denver Health's (DH's) two-pronged approach to achieving this goal: (1) creating an integrated system that focuses on the needs of vulnerable populations, and (2) creating an approach for financial viability, quality of care, and employee engagement. The implementation and outcomes of this approach at DH are described to provide a replicable model. An integrated delivery system serving vulnerable populations should go beyond the traditional components found in most integrated health systems and include components such as mental health services, school-based clinics, and correctional health care, which address the unique and important needs of, and points of access for, vulnerable populations. In addition, the demands that a safety net system experiences from an open-door policy on access and revenue require a disciplined approach to cost, quality of care, and employee engagement. For this, DH chose Lean, which focuses on reducing waste to respect the patients and employees within its health system, as well as all citizens. DH's Lean effort produced almost $195 million of financial benefit, impressive clinical outcomes, and high employee engagement. If this two-pronged approach were widely adopted, health systems across the United States would improve their chances of giving better care at costs they can afford for every person in society.

Analysis of brain patterns using temporal measures

DOEpatents

Georgopoulos, Apostolos

2015-08-11

A set of brain data representing a time series of neurophysiologic activity acquired by spatially distributed sensors arranged to detect neural signaling of a brain (such as by the use of magnetoencephalography) is obtained. The set of brain data is processed to obtain a dynamic brain model based on a set of statistically-independent temporal measures, such as partial cross correlations, among groupings of different time series within the set of brain data. The dynamic brain model represents interactions between neural populations of the brain occurring close in time, such as with zero lag, for example. The dynamic brain model can be analyzed to obtain the neurophysiologic assessment of the brain. Data processing techniques may be used to assess structural or neurochemical brain pathologies.

Iron Age and Anglo-Saxon genomes from East England reveal British migration history.

PubMed

Schiffels, Stephan; Haak, Wolfgang; Paajanen, Pirita; Llamas, Bastien; Popescu, Elizabeth; Loe, Louise; Clarke, Rachel; Lyons, Alice; Mortimer, Richard; Sayer, Duncan; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Cooper, Alan; Durbin, Richard

2016-01-19

British population history has been shaped by a series of immigrations, including the early Anglo-Saxon migrations after 400 CE. It remains an open question how these events affected the genetic composition of the current British population. Here, we present whole-genome sequences from 10 individuals excavated close to Cambridge in the East of England, ranging from the late Iron Age to the middle Anglo-Saxon period. By analysing shared rare variants with hundreds of modern samples from Britain and Europe, we estimate that on average the contemporary East English population derives 38% of its ancestry from Anglo-Saxon migrations. We gain further insight with a new method, rarecoal, which infers population history and identifies fine-scale genetic ancestry from rare variants. Using rarecoal we find that the Anglo-Saxon samples are closely related to modern Dutch and Danish populations, while the Iron Age samples share ancestors with multiple Northern European populations including Britain.

Properties of LEGUS Clusters Obtained with Different Massive-Star Evolutionary Tracks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wofford, A.; Charlot, S.; Eldridge, J. J.

We compute spectral libraries for populations of coeval stars using state-of-the-art massive-star evolutionary tracks that account for different astrophysics including rotation and close-binarity. Our synthetic spectra account for stellar and nebular contributions. We use our models to obtain E(B - V ), age, and mass for six clusters in spiral galaxy NGC 1566, which have ages of < 50 Myr and masses of > 5 x 104M⊙ according to standard models. NGC 1566 was observed from the NUV to the I-band as part of the imaging Treasury HST program LEGUS: Legacy Extragalactic UV Survey. We aim to establish i) if the models provide reasonable fits to the data, ii) how well the models and photometry are able to constrain the cluster properties, and iii) how different the properties obtained with different models are.

Buried landmine detection using multivariate normal clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duston, Brian M.

2001-10-01

A Bayesian classification algorithm is presented for discriminating buried land mines from buried and surface clutter in Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) signals. This algorithm is based on multivariate normal (MVN) clustering, where feature vectors are used to identify populations (clusters) of mines and clutter objects. The features are extracted from two-dimensional images created from ground penetrating radar scans. MVN clustering is used to determine the number of clusters in the data and to create probability density models for target and clutter populations, producing the MVN clustering classifier (MVNCC). The Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) is used to evaluate each model to determine the number of clusters in the data. An extension of the MVNCC allows the model to adapt to local clutter distributions by treating each of the MVN cluster components as a Poisson process and adaptively estimating the intensity parameters. The algorithm is developed using data collected by the Mine Hunter/Killer Close-In Detector (MH/K CID) at prepared mine lanes. The Mine Hunter/Killer is a prototype mine detecting and neutralizing vehicle developed for the U.S. Army to clear roads of anti-tank mines.

Adapting populations in space: clonal interference and genetic diversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weissman, Daniel; Barton, Nick

Most species inhabit ranges much larger than the scales over which individuals interact. How does this spatial structure interact with adaptive evolution? We consider a simple model of a spatially-extended, adapting population and show that, while clonal interference severely limits the adaptation of purely asexual populations, even rare recombination is enough to allow adaptation at rates approaching those of well-mixed populations. We also find that the genetic hitchhiking produced by the adaptive alleles sweeping through the population has strange effects on the patterns of genetic diversity. In large spatial ranges, even low rates of adaptation cause all individuals in the population to rapidly trace their ancestry back to individuals living in a small region in the center of the range. The probability of fixation of an allele is thus strongly dependent on the allele's spatial location, with alleles from the center favored. Surprisingly, these effects are seen genome-wide (instead of being localized to the regions of the genome undergoing the sweeps). The spatial concentration of ancestry produces a power-law dependence of relatedness on distance, so that even individuals sampled far apart are likely to be fairly closely related, masking the underlying spatial structure.

Population structure in Japanese rice population

PubMed Central

Yamasaki, Masanori; Ideta, Osamu

2013-01-01

It is essential to elucidate genetic diversity and relationships among even related individuals and populations for plant breeding and genetic analysis. Since Japanese rice breeding has improved agronomic traits such as yield and eating quality, modern Japanese rice cultivars originated from narrow genetic resource and closely related. To resolve the population structure and genetic diversity in Japanese rice population, we used a total of 706 alleles detected by 134 simple sequence repeat markers in a total of 114 cultivars composed of 94 improved varieties and 20 landraces, which are representative and important for Japanese rice breeding. The landraces exhibit greater gene diversity than improved lines, suggesting that landraces can provide additional genetic diversity for future breeding. Model-based Bayesian clustering analysis revealed six subgroups and admixture situation in the cultivars, showing good agreement with pedigree information. This method could be superior to phylogenetic method in classifying a related population. The leading Japanese rice cultivar, Koshihikari is unique due to the specific genome constitution. We defined Japanese rice diverse sets that capture the maximum number of alleles for given sample sizes. These sets are useful for a variety of genetic application in Japanese rice cultivars. PMID:23641181

Cortical circuitry implementing graphical models.

PubMed

Litvak, Shai; Ullman, Shimon

2009-11-01

In this letter, we develop and simulate a large-scale network of spiking neurons that approximates the inference computations performed by graphical models. Unlike previous related schemes, which used sum and product operations in either the log or linear domains, the current model uses an inference scheme based on the sum and maximization operations in the log domain. Simulations show that using these operations, a large-scale circuit, which combines populations of spiking neurons as basic building blocks, is capable of finding close approximations to the full mathematical computations performed by graphical models within a few hundred milliseconds. The circuit is general in the sense that it can be wired for any graph structure, it supports multistate variables, and it uses standard leaky integrate-and-fire neuronal units. Following previous work, which proposed relations between graphical models and the large-scale cortical anatomy, we focus on the cortical microcircuitry and propose how anatomical and physiological aspects of the local circuitry may map onto elements of the graphical model implementation. We discuss in particular the roles of three major types of inhibitory neurons (small fast-spiking basket cells, large layer 2/3 basket cells, and double-bouquet neurons), subpopulations of strongly interconnected neurons with their unique connectivity patterns in different cortical layers, and the possible role of minicolumns in the realization of the population-based maximum operation.

Rotational breakup as the origin of small binary asteroids.

PubMed

Walsh, Kevin J; Richardson, Derek C; Michel, Patrick

2008-07-10

Asteroids with satellites are observed throughout the Solar System, from subkilometre near-Earth asteroid pairs to systems of large and distant bodies in the Kuiper belt. The smallest and closest systems are found among the near-Earth and small inner main-belt asteroids, which typically have rapidly rotating primaries and close secondaries on circular orbits. About 15 per cent of near-Earth and main-belt asteroids with diameters under 10 km have satellites. The mechanism that forms such similar binaries in these two dynamically different populations was hitherto unclear. Here we show that these binaries are created by the slow spinup of a 'rubble pile' asteroid by means of the thermal YORP (Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack) effect. We find that mass shed from the equator of a critically spinning body accretes into a satellite if the material is collisionally dissipative and the primary maintains a low equatorial elongation. The satellite forms mostly from material originating near the primary's surface and enters into a close, low-eccentricity orbit. The properties of binaries produced by our model match those currently observed in the small near-Earth and main-belt asteroid populations, including 1999 KW(4) (refs 3, 4).

Rotational breakup as the origin of small binary asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Kevin J.; Richardson, Derek C.; Michel, Patrick

2008-07-01

Asteroids with satellites are observed throughout the Solar System, from subkilometre near-Earth asteroid pairs to systems of large and distant bodies in the Kuiper belt. The smallest and closest systems are found among the near-Earth and small inner main-belt asteroids, which typically have rapidly rotating primaries and close secondaries on circular orbits. About 15 per cent of near-Earth and main-belt asteroids with diameters under 10km have satellites. The mechanism that forms such similar binaries in these two dynamically different populations was hitherto unclear. Here we show that these binaries are created by the slow spinup of a `rubble pile' asteroid by means of the thermal YORP (Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack) effect. We find that mass shed from the equator of a critically spinning body accretes into a satellite if the material is collisionally dissipative and the primary maintains a low equatorial elongation. The satellite forms mostly from material originating near the primary's surface and enters into a close, low-eccentricity orbit. The properties of binaries produced by our model match those currently observed in the small near-Earth and main-belt asteroid populations, including 1999KW4 (refs 3, 4).

Sustainable food security in India-Domestic production and macronutrient availability.

PubMed

Ritchie, Hannah; Reay, David; Higgins, Peter

2018-01-01

India has been perceived as a development enigma: Recent rates of economic growth have not been matched by similar rates in health and nutritional improvements. To meet the second Sustainable Development Goal (SDG2) of achieving zero hunger by 2030, India faces a substantial challenge in meeting basic nutritional needs in addition to addressing population, environmental and dietary pressures. Here we have mapped-for the first time-the Indian food system from crop production to household-level availability across three key macronutrients categories of 'calories', 'digestible protein' and 'fat'. To better understand the potential of reduced food chain losses and improved crop yields to close future food deficits, scenario analysis was conducted to 2030 and 2050. Under India's current self-sufficiency model, our analysis indicates severe shortfalls in availability of all macronutrients across a large proportion (>60%) of the Indian population. The extent of projected shortfalls continues to grow such that, even in ambitious waste reduction and yield scenarios, enhanced domestic production alone will be inadequate in closing the nutrition supply gap. We suggest that to meet SDG2 India will need to take a combined approach of optimising domestic production and increasing its participation in global trade.

Sustainable food security in India—Domestic production and macronutrient availability

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

India has been perceived as a development enigma: Recent rates of economic growth have not been matched by similar rates in health and nutritional improvements. To meet the second Sustainable Development Goal (SDG2) of achieving zero hunger by 2030, India faces a substantial challenge in meeting basic nutritional needs in addition to addressing population, environmental and dietary pressures. Here we have mapped—for the first time—the Indian food system from crop production to household-level availability across three key macronutrients categories of ‘calories’, ‘digestible protein’ and ‘fat’. To better understand the potential of reduced food chain losses and improved crop yields to close future food deficits, scenario analysis was conducted to 2030 and 2050. Under India’s current self-sufficiency model, our analysis indicates severe shortfalls in availability of all macronutrients across a large proportion (>60%) of the Indian population. The extent of projected shortfalls continues to grow such that, even in ambitious waste reduction and yield scenarios, enhanced domestic production alone will be inadequate in closing the nutrition supply gap. We suggest that to meet SDG2 India will need to take a combined approach of optimising domestic production and increasing its participation in global trade. PMID:29570702

MAJOR-MERGER GALAXY PAIRS AT Z = 0: DUST PROPERTIES AND COMPANION MORPHOLOGY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Domingue, Donovan L.; Ronca, Joseph; Hill, Emily

We present an analysis of dust properties of a sample of close major-merger galaxy pairs selected by K {sub s} magnitude and redshift. The pairs represent the two populations of spiral–spiral (S+S) and mixed morphology spiral–elliptical (S+E). The Code Investigating GALaxy Emission software is used to fit dust models to the Two Micron All Sky Survey, Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer , and Herschel flux density measurements, and to derive the parameters describing the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons contribution, interstellar radiation field, and photodissociation regions. Model fits verify our previous Spitzer Space Telescope analysis that S+S and S+E pairs do not havemore » the same level of enhancement of star formation and differ in dust composition. The spirals of mixed-morphology galaxy pairs do not exhibit the enhancements in interstellar radiation field and therefore dust temperature for spirals in S+S pairs in contrast to what would be expected according to standard models of gas redistribution due to encounter torques. This suggests the importance of the companion environment/morphology in determining the dust properties of a spiral galaxy in a close major-merger pair.« less

Control effects of stimulus paradigms on characteristic firings of parkinsonism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Honghui; Wang, Qingyun; Chen, Guanrong

2014-09-01

Experimental studies have shown that neuron population located in the basal ganglia of parkinsonian primates can exhibit characteristic firings with certain firing rates differing from normal brain activities. Motivated by recent experimental findings, we investigate the effects of various stimulation paradigms on the firing rates of parkinsonism based on the proposed dynamical models. Our results show that the closed-loop deep brain stimulation is superior in ameliorating the firing behaviors of the parkinsonism, and other control strategies have similar effects according to the observation of electrophysiological experiments. In addition, in conformity to physiological experiments, we found that there exists optimal delay of input in the closed-loop GPtrain|M1 paradigm, where more normal behaviors can be obtained. More interestingly, we observed that W-shaped curves of the firing rates always appear as stimulus delay varies. We furthermore verify the robustness of the obtained results by studying three pallidal discharge rates of the parkinsonism based on the conductance-based model, as well as the integrate-and-fire-or-burst model. Finally, we show that short-term plasticity can improve the firing rates and optimize the control effects on parkinsonism. Our conclusions may give more theoretical insight into Parkinson's disease studies.

Characteristics of the Japanese sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus's population in the Sea of Japan (Kievka Bay)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavrilova, G. S.; Sukhin, I. Yu.

2011-06-01

In Kievka Bay of the Sea of Japan, the population of the Japanese sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus inhabits the areas of coarse sediments and complex bottom topography. These distributional patterns are closely related to the species' ecology, i.e., to the demand for protection against the wave turbulence. The aggregationing coverage of the sea cucumber population is about 80 hectares, where ˜200 thousand animals were accounted for in the last years. The aggregation's area varies during the year, which is closely related to the species' biological peculiarities, such as their behavioral patterns and the redistribution of their food resources. A significant increase of the juvenile population occurred after the farm-reared sea cucumber spat were released in 2003.

Inferences about ungulate population dynamics derived from age ratios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, N.C.; Kauffman, M.J.; Mills, L.S.

2008-01-01

Age ratios (e.g., calf:cow for elk and fawn:doe for deer) are used regularly to monitor ungulate populations. However, it remains unclear what inferences are appropriate from this index because multiple vital rate changes can influence the observed ratio. We used modeling based on elk (Cervus elaphus) life-history to evaluate both how age ratios are influenced by stage-specific fecundity and survival and how well age ratios track population dynamics. Although all vital rates have the potential to influence calf:adult female ratios (i.e., calf:xow ratios), calf survival explained the vast majority of variation in calf:adult female ratios due to its temporal variation compared to other vital rates. Calf:adult female ratios were positively correlated with population growth rate (??) and often successfully indicated population trajectories. However, calf:adult female ratios performed poorly at detecting imposed declines in calf survival, suggesting that only the most severe declines would be rapidly detected. Our analyses clarify that managers can use accurate, unbiased age ratios to monitor arguably the most important components contributing to sustainable ungulate populations, survival rate of young and ??. However, age ratios are not useful for detecting gradual declines in survival of young or making inferences about fecundity or adult survival in ungulate populations. Therefore, age ratios coupled with independent estimates of population growth or population size are necessary to monitor ungulate population demography and dynamics closely through time.

Relative effects of survival and reproduction on the population dynamics of emperor geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmutz, Joel A.; Rockwell, Robert F.; Petersen, Margaret R.

1997-01-01

Populations of emperor geese (Chen canagica) in Alaska declined sometime between the mid-1960s and the mid-1980s and have increased little since. To promote recovery of this species to former levels, managers need to know how much their perturbations of survival and/or reproduction would affect population growth rate (λ). We constructed an individual-based population model to evaluate the relative effect of altering mean values of various survival and reproductive parameters on λ and fall age structure (AS, defined as the proportion of juv), assuming additive rather than compensatory relations among parameters. Altering survival of adults had markedly greater relative effects on λ than did equally proportionate changes in either juvenile survival or reproductive parameters. We found the opposite pattern for relative effects on AS. Due to concerns about bias in the initial parameter estimates used in our model, we used 5 additional sets of parameter estimates with this model structure. We found that estimates of survival based on aerial survey data gathered each fall resulted in models that corresponded more closely to independent estimates of λ than did models that used mark-recapture estimates of survival. This disparity suggests that mark-recapture estimates of survival are biased low. To further explore how parameter estimates affected estimates of λ, we used values of survival and reproduction found in other goose species, and we examined the effect of an hypothesized correlation between an individual's clutch size and the subsequent survival of her young. The rank order of parameters in their relative effects on λ was consistent for all 6 parameter sets we examined. The observed variation in relative effects on λ among the 6 parameter sets is indicative of how relative effects on λ may vary among goose populations. With this knowledge of the relative effects of survival and reproductive parameters on λ, managers can make more informed decisions about which parameters to influence through management or to target for future study.

Integrating Paleodistribution Models and Phylogeography in the Grass-Cutting Ant Acromyrmex striatus (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in Southern Lowlands of South America

PubMed Central

Cristiano, Maykon Passos; Clemes Cardoso, Danon; Fernandes-Salomão, Tânia Maria; Heinze, Jürgen

2016-01-01

Past climate changes often have influenced the present distribution and intraspecific genetic diversity of organisms. The objective of this study was to investigate the phylogeography and historical demography of populations of Acromyrmex striatus (Roger, 1863), a leaf-cutting ant species restricted to the open plains of South America. Additionally, we modeled the distribution of this species to predict its contemporary and historic habitat. From the partial sequences of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase I of 128 A. striatus workers from 38 locations we estimated genetic diversity and inferred historical demography, divergence time, and population structure. The potential distribution areas of A. striatus for current and quaternary weather conditions were modeled using the maximum entropy algorithm. We identified a total of 58 haplotypes, divided into five main haplogroups. The analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) revealed that the largest proportion of genetic variation is found among the groups of populations. Paleodistribution models suggest that the potential habitat of A. striatus may have decreased during the Last Interglacial Period (LIG) and expanded during the Last Maximum Glacial (LGM). Overall, the past potential distribution recovered by the model comprises the current potential distribution of the species. The general structuring pattern observed was consistent with isolation by distance, suggesting a balance between gene flow and drift. Analysis of historical demography showed that populations of A. striatus had remained constant throughout its evolutionary history. Although fluctuations in the area of their potential historic habitat occurred during quaternary climate changes, populations of A. striatus are strongly structured geographically. However, explicit barriers to gene flow have not been identified. These findings closely match those in Mycetophylax simplex, another ant species that in some areas occurs in sympatry with A. striatus. Ecophysiological traits of this species and isolation by distance may together have shaped the phylogeographic pattern. PMID:26734939

Modelling biological invasions: species traits, species interactions, and habitat heterogeneity.

PubMed

Cannas, Sergio A; Marco, Diana E; Páez, Sergio A

2003-05-01

In this paper we explore the integration of different factors to understand, predict and control ecological invasions, through a general cellular automaton model especially developed. The model includes life history traits of several species in a modular structure interacting multiple cellular automata. We performed simulations using field values corresponding to the exotic Gleditsia triacanthos and native co-dominant trees in a montane area. Presence of G. triacanthos juvenile bank was a determinant condition for invasion success. Main parameters influencing invasion velocity were mean seed dispersal distance and minimum reproductive age. Seed production had a small influence on the invasion velocity. Velocities predicted by the model agreed well with estimations from field data. Values of population density predicted matched field values closely. The modular structure of the model, the explicit interaction between the invader and the native species, and the simplicity of parameters and transition rules are novel features of the model.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ordoñez, Antonio J.; Sarajedini, Ata; Yang, Soung-Chul, E-mail: a.ordonez@ufl.edu, E-mail: ata@astro.ufl.edu, E-mail: sczoo@kasi.re.kr

We present the first detailed study of the RR Lyrae variable population in the Local Group dSph/dIrr transition galaxy, Phoenix, using previously obtained HST/WFPC2 observations of the galaxy. We utilize template light curve fitting routines to obtain best fit light curves for RR Lyrae variables in Phoenix. Our technique has identified 78 highly probable RR Lyrae stars (54 ab-type; 24 c-type) with about 40 additional candidates. We find mean periods for the two populations of (P {sub ab}) = 0.60 ± 0.03 days and (P{sub c} ) = 0.353 ± 0.002 days. We use the properties of these light curvesmore » to extract, among other things, a metallicity distribution function for ab-type RR Lyrae. Our analysis yields a mean metallicity of ([Fe/H]) = –1.68 ± 0.06 dex for the RRab stars. From the mean period and metallicity calculated from the ab-type RR Lyrae, we conclude that Phoenix is more likely of intermediate Oosterhoff type; however the morphology of the Bailey diagram for Phoenix RR Lyraes appears similar to that of an Oosterhoff type I system. Using the RRab stars, we also study the chemical enrichment law for Phoenix. We find that our metallicity distribution is reasonably well fitted by a closed-box model. The parameters of this model are compatible with the findings of Hidalgo et al., further supporting the idea that Phoenix appears to have been chemically enriched as a closed-box-like system during the early stage of its formation and evolution.« less

One-dimensional time-dependent fluid model of a very high density low-pressure inductively coupled plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaplin, Vernon H.; Bellan, Paul M.

2015-12-01

A time-dependent two-fluid model has been developed to understand axial variations in the plasma parameters in a very high density (peak ne≳ 5 ×1019 m-3 ) argon inductively coupled discharge in a long 1.1 cm radius tube. The model equations are written in 1D with radial losses to the tube walls accounted for by the inclusion of effective particle and energy sink terms. The ambipolar diffusion equation and electron energy equation are solved to find the electron density ne(z ,t ) and temperature Te(z ,t ) , and the populations of the neutral argon 4s metastable, 4s resonant, and 4p excited state manifolds are calculated to determine the stepwise ionization rate and calculate radiative energy losses. The model has been validated through comparisons with Langmuir probe ion saturation current measurements; close agreement between the simulated and measured axial plasma density profiles and the initial density rise rate at each location was obtained at pA r=30 -60 mTorr . We present detailed results from calculations at 60 mTorr, including the time-dependent electron temperature, excited state populations, and energy budget within and downstream of the radiofrequency antenna.

Evolutionary dynamics of nationalism and migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barreira da Silva Rocha, André

2013-08-01

I present a dynamic evolutionary game model to address the relation between nationalism against immigrants and assimilation of the latter into the host country culture. I assume a country composed of two different large polymorphic populations, one of native citizens and the other of immigrants. A native citizen may behave nationalistically or may welcome immigrants. Immigrants may have an interest in learning the host country language or not. Evolution is modeled using replicator dynamics (RD). I also account for the presence of an enclave of immigrants in the host country. In the RD, the latter represents the immigrants’ own population effect, which contribution to fitness is controlled using a parameter ρ, 0≤ρ≤1, that represents the enclave size. In line with the empirical literature on migration, the existence of an enclave of immigrants makes assimilation less likely to occur. For large values of ρ, complete assimilation may not occur even if immigrants and natives share very close cultures and norms. Government policy regarding nationalism is modeled both exogenously and endogenously. A single or multiple asymptotically stable states exist for all cases studied but one in which the dynamics is similar to that found in the predator-prey model of Lotka-Volterra for competing species.

Factors influencing territorial occupancy and reproductive success in a Eurasian Eagle-owl (Bubo bubo) population.

PubMed

León-Ortega, Mario; Jiménez-Franco, María V; Martínez, José E; Calvo, José F

2017-01-01

Modelling territorial occupancy and reproductive success is a key issue for better understanding the population dynamics of territorial species. This study aimed to investigate these ecological processes in a Eurasian Eagle-owl (Bubo bubo) population in south-eastern Spain during a seven-year period. A multi-season, multi-state modelling approach was followed to estimate the probabilities of occupancy and reproductive success in relation to previous state, time and habitat covariates, and accounting for imperfect detection. The best estimated models showed past breeding success in the territories to be the most important factor determining a high probability of reoccupation and reproductive success in the following year. In addition, alternative occupancy models suggested the positive influence of crops on the probability of territory occupation. By contrast, the best reproductive model revealed strong interannual variations in the rates of breeding success, which may be related to changes in the abundance of the European Rabbit, the main prey of the Eurasian Eagle-owl. Our models also estimated the probabilities of detecting the presence of owls in a given territory and the probability of detecting evidence of successful reproduction. Estimated detection probabilities were high throughout the breeding season, decreasing in time for unsuccessful breeders but increasing for successful breeders. The probability of detecting reproductive success increased with time, being close to one in the last survey. These results suggest that reproduction failure in the early stages of the breeding season is a determinant factor in the probability of detecting occupancy and reproductive success.

Factors influencing territorial occupancy and reproductive success in a Eurasian Eagle-owl (Bubo bubo) population

PubMed Central

León-Ortega, Mario; Jiménez-Franco, María V.; Martínez, José E.

2017-01-01

Modelling territorial occupancy and reproductive success is a key issue for better understanding the population dynamics of territorial species. This study aimed to investigate these ecological processes in a Eurasian Eagle-owl (Bubo bubo) population in south-eastern Spain during a seven-year period. A multi-season, multi-state modelling approach was followed to estimate the probabilities of occupancy and reproductive success in relation to previous state, time and habitat covariates, and accounting for imperfect detection. The best estimated models showed past breeding success in the territories to be the most important factor determining a high probability of reoccupation and reproductive success in the following year. In addition, alternative occupancy models suggested the positive influence of crops on the probability of territory occupation. By contrast, the best reproductive model revealed strong interannual variations in the rates of breeding success, which may be related to changes in the abundance of the European Rabbit, the main prey of the Eurasian Eagle-owl. Our models also estimated the probabilities of detecting the presence of owls in a given territory and the probability of detecting evidence of successful reproduction. Estimated detection probabilities were high throughout the breeding season, decreasing in time for unsuccessful breeders but increasing for successful breeders. The probability of detecting reproductive success increased with time, being close to one in the last survey. These results suggest that reproduction failure in the early stages of the breeding season is a determinant factor in the probability of detecting occupancy and reproductive success. PMID:28399175

Dancing to CHANGA: a self-consistent prediction for close SMBH pair formation time-scales following galaxy mergers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tremmel, M.; Governato, F.; Volonteri, M.; Quinn, T. R.; Pontzen, A.

2018-04-01

We present the first self-consistent prediction for the distribution of formation time-scales for close supermassive black hole (SMBH) pairs following galaxy mergers. Using ROMULUS25, the first large-scale cosmological simulation to accurately track the orbital evolution of SMBHs within their host galaxies down to sub-kpc scales, we predict an average formation rate density of close SMBH pairs of 0.013 cMpc-3 Gyr-1. We find that it is relatively rare for galaxy mergers to result in the formation of close SMBH pairs with sub-kpc separation and those that do form are often the result of Gyr of orbital evolution following the galaxy merger. The likelihood and time-scale to form a close SMBH pair depends strongly on the mass ratio of the merging galaxies, as well as the presence of dense stellar cores. Low stellar mass ratio mergers with galaxies that lack a dense stellar core are more likely to become tidally disrupted and deposit their SMBH at large radii without any stellar core to aid in their orbital decay, resulting in a population of long-lived `wandering' SMBHs. Conversely, SMBHs in galaxies that remain embedded within a stellar core form close pairs in much shorter time-scales on average. This time-scale is a crucial, though often ignored or very simplified, ingredient to models predicting SMBH mergers rates and the connection between SMBH and star formation activity.

Lee-Carter state space modeling: Application to the Malaysia mortality data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakiyatussariroh, W. H. Wan; Said, Z. Mohammad; Norazan, M. R.

2014-06-01

This article presents an approach that formalizes the Lee-Carter (LC) model as a state space model. Maximum likelihood through Expectation-Maximum (EM) algorithm was used to estimate the model. The methodology is applied to Malaysia's total population mortality data. Malaysia's mortality data was modeled based on age specific death rates (ASDR) data from 1971-2009. The fitted ASDR are compared to the actual observed values. However, results from the comparison of the fitted and actual values between LC-SS model and the original LC model shows that the fitted values from the LC-SS model and original LC model are quite close. In addition, there is not much difference between the value of root mean squared error (RMSE) and Akaike information criteria (AIC) from both models. The LC-SS model estimated for this study can be extended for forecasting ASDR in Malaysia. Then, accuracy of the LC-SS compared to the original LC can be further examined by verifying the forecasting power using out-of-sample comparison.

Genomic prediction based on data from three layer lines using non-linear regression models.

PubMed

Huang, Heyun; Windig, Jack J; Vereijken, Addie; Calus, Mario P L

2014-11-06

Most studies on genomic prediction with reference populations that include multiple lines or breeds have used linear models. Data heterogeneity due to using multiple populations may conflict with model assumptions used in linear regression methods. In an attempt to alleviate potential discrepancies between assumptions of linear models and multi-population data, two types of alternative models were used: (1) a multi-trait genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) model that modelled trait by line combinations as separate but correlated traits and (2) non-linear models based on kernel learning. These models were compared to conventional linear models for genomic prediction for two lines of brown layer hens (B1 and B2) and one line of white hens (W1). The three lines each had 1004 to 1023 training and 238 to 240 validation animals. Prediction accuracy was evaluated by estimating the correlation between observed phenotypes and predicted breeding values. When the training dataset included only data from the evaluated line, non-linear models yielded at best a similar accuracy as linear models. In some cases, when adding a distantly related line, the linear models showed a slight decrease in performance, while non-linear models generally showed no change in accuracy. When only information from a closely related line was used for training, linear models and non-linear radial basis function (RBF) kernel models performed similarly. The multi-trait GBLUP model took advantage of the estimated genetic correlations between the lines. Combining linear and non-linear models improved the accuracy of multi-line genomic prediction. Linear models and non-linear RBF models performed very similarly for genomic prediction, despite the expectation that non-linear models could deal better with the heterogeneous multi-population data. This heterogeneity of the data can be overcome by modelling trait by line combinations as separate but correlated traits, which avoids the occasional occurrence of large negative accuracies when the evaluated line was not included in the training dataset. Furthermore, when using a multi-line training dataset, non-linear models provided information on the genotype data that was complementary to the linear models, which indicates that the underlying data distributions of the three studied lines were indeed heterogeneous.

Domestication Genomics of the Open-Pollinated Scarlet Runner Bean (Phaseolus coccineus L.)

PubMed Central

Guerra-García, Azalea; Suárez-Atilano, Marco; Mastretta-Yanes, Alicia; Delgado-Salinas, Alfonso; Piñero, Daniel

2017-01-01

The runner bean is a legume species from Mesoamerica closely related to common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris). It is a perennial species, but it is usually cultivated in small-scale agriculture as an annual crop for its dry seeds and edible immature pods. Unlike the common bean, P. coccineus has received little attention from a genetic standpoint. In this work we aim to (1) provide information about the domestication history and domestication events of P. coccineus; (2) examine the distribution and level of genetic diversity in wild and cultivated Mexican populations of this species; and, (3) identify candidate loci to natural and artificial selection. For this, we generated genotyping by sequencing data (42,548 SNPs) from 242 individuals of P. coccineus and the domesticated forms of the closely related species P. vulgaris (20) and P. dumosus (35). Eight genetic clusters were detected, of which half corresponds to wild populations and the rest to domesticated plants. The cultivated populations conform a monophyletic clade, suggesting that only one domestication event occurred in Mexico, and that it took place around populations of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. No difference between wild and domesticated levels of genetic diversity was detected and effective population sizes are relatively high, supporting a weak genetic bottleneck during domestication. Most populations presented an excess of heterozygotes, probably due to inbreeding depression. One population of P. coccineus subsp. striatus had the greatest excess and seems to be genetically isolated despite being geographically close to other wild populations. Contrasting with previous studies, we did not find evidence of recent gene flow between wild and cultivated populations. Based on outlier detection methods, we identified 24 domestication-related SNPs, 13 related to cultivar diversification and eight under natural selection. Few of these SNPs fell within annotated loci, but the annotated domestication-related SNPs are highly expressed in flowers and pods. Our results contribute to the understanding of the domestication history of P. coccineus, and highlight how the genetic signatures of domestication can be substantially different between closely related species. PMID:29187858

Oceanic circulation models help to predict global biogeography of pelagic yellow-bellied sea snake.

PubMed

Brischoux, François; Cotté, Cédric; Lillywhite, Harvey B; Bailleul, Frédéric; Lalire, Maxime; Gaspar, Philippe

2016-08-01

It is well recognized that most marine vertebrates, and especially tetrapods, precisely orient and actively move in apparently homogeneous oceanic environments. Here, we investigate the presumptive role of oceanic currents in biogeographic patterns observed in a secondarily marine tetrapod, the yellow-bellied sea snake (Hydrophis [Pelamis] platurus). State-of-the-art world ocean circulation models show how H. platurus, the only pelagic species of sea snake, can potentially exploit oceanic currents to disperse and maintain population mixing between localities that spread over two-thirds of the Earth's circumference. The very close association of these snakes with surface currents seems to provide a highly efficient dispersal mechanism that allowed this species to range extensively and relatively quickly well beyond the central Indo-Pacific area, the centre of origin, abundance and diversity of sea snakes. Our results further suggest that the pan-oceanic population of this species must be extraordinarily large. © 2016 The Author(s).

[Implementing population-based integrated care for a region: a work-in-progress report on the project "Gesundes Kinzigtal"].

PubMed

Hildebrandt, Helmut; Schmitt, Gwendolyn; Roth, Monika; Stunder, Brigitte

2011-01-01

The regional integrated care model "Gesundes Kinzigtal" pursues the idea of integrated health care with special focus on increasing the health gain of the served population. Physicians (general practitioners) and psychotherapists, physiotherapists, hospitals, nursing services, non-profit associations, fitness centers, and health insurance companies work closely together with a regional management company and its programs on prevention and care coordination and enhancement. The 10 year-project is run by a company that was founded by the physician network "MQNK" and "OptiMedis AG", a corporation with public health background specialising in integrated health care. The aim of this project is to enhance prevention and quality of health care for a whole region in a sustainable way, and to decrease costs of care. The article describes the special funding model of the project, the engagement of patients, and the different health and prevention programmes. The programmes and projects are developed, implemented, and evaluated by multidisciplinary teams. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Modeling the Economic Feasibility of Large-Scale Net-Zero Water Management: A Case Study.

PubMed

Guo, Tianjiao; Englehardt, James D; Fallon, Howard J

  While municipal direct potable water reuse (DPR) has been recommended for consideration by the U.S. National Research Council, it is unclear how to size new closed-loop DPR plants, termed "net-zero water (NZW) plants", to minimize cost and energy demand assuming upgradient water distribution. Based on a recent model optimizing the economics of plant scale for generalized conditions, the authors evaluated the feasibility and optimal scale of NZW plants for treatment capacity expansion in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Local data on population distribution and topography were input to compare projected costs for NZW vs the current plan. Total cost was minimized at a scale of 49 NZW plants for the service population of 671,823. Total unit cost for NZW systems, which mineralize chemical oxygen demand to below normal detection limits, is projected at ~$10.83 / 1000 gal, approximately 13% above the current plan and less than rates reported for several significant U.S. cities.

Iron and molecular opacities and the evolution of Population I stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stothers, Richard B.; Chin, Chao-Wen

1993-01-01

Effects of recent opacity revisions on the evolution of Population I stars are explored over the range 1.5-60 solar masses. Opacity parameters considered include the angular momentum coupling scheme for iron, the relative iron abundance, the total metal abundance, and diatomic and triatomic molecular sources. Only the total metal abundance exerts an important control over the evolutionary tracks. Blue loops on the H-R diagram during core helium burning can be very sensitive to opacity, but only insofar as the simple formation or suppression of a blue loop is concerned. The blue loops are most robust for stellar masses around 10 solar masses. We confirm, from a comparison of stellar models with observational data, that the total metal abundance is close to solar and that convective core overshooting is likely to be very slight. The new models predict the existence of an iron convection zone in the envelope and a great widening of the main-sequence band in the H-R diagram at luminosities brighter than 100,000 solar luminosities.

Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling to determine the dose of ST-246 to protect against smallpox in humans.

PubMed

Leeds, Janet M; Fenneteau, Frederique; Gosselin, Nathalie H; Mouksassi, Mohamad-Samer; Kassir, Nastya; Marier, J F; Chen, Yali; Grosenbach, Doug; Frimm, Annie E; Honeychurch, Kady M; Chinsangaram, Jarasvech; Tyavanagimatt, Shanthakumar R; Hruby, Dennis E; Jordan, Robert

2013-03-01

Although smallpox has been eradicated, the United States government considers it a "material threat" and has funded the discovery and development of potential therapeutic compounds. As reported here, the human efficacious dose for one of these compounds, ST-246, was determined using efficacy studies in nonhuman primates (NHPs), together with pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic analysis that predicted the appropriate dose and exposure levels to provide therapeutic benefit in humans. The efficacy analysis combined the data from studies conducted at three separate facilities that evaluated treatment following infection with a closely related virus, monkeypox virus (MPXV), in a total of 96 NHPs. The effect of infection on ST-246 pharmacokinetics in NHPs was applied to humans using population pharmacokinetic models. Exposure at the selected human dose of 600 mg is more than 4-fold higher than the lowest efficacious dose in NHPs and is predicted to provide protection to more than 95% of the population.

Social network types among older Korean adults: Associations with subjective health.

PubMed

Sohn, Sung Yun; Joo, Won-Tak; Kim, Woo Jung; Kim, Se Joo; Youm, Yoosik; Kim, Hyeon Chang; Park, Yeong-Ran; Lee, Eun

2017-01-01

With population aging now a global phenomenon, the health of older adults is becoming an increasingly important issue. Because the Korean population is aging at an unprecedented rate, preparing for public health problems associated with old age is particularly salient in this country. As the physical and mental health of older adults is related to their social relationships, investigating the social networks of older adults and their relationship to health status is important for establishing public health policies. The aims of this study were to identify social network types among older adults in South Korea and to examine the relationship of these social network types with self-rated health and depression. Data from the Korean Social Life, Health, and Aging Project were analyzed. Model-based clustering using finite normal mixture modeling was conducted to identify the social network types based on ten criterion variables of social relationships and activities: marital status, number of children, number of close relatives, number of friends, frequency of attendance at religious services, attendance at organized group meetings, in-degree centrality, out-degree centrality, closeness centrality, and betweenness centrality. Multivariate regression analysis was conducted to examine associations between the identified social network types and self-rated health and depression. The model-based clustering analysis revealed that social networks clustered into five types: diverse, family, congregant, congregant-restricted, and restricted. Diverse or family social network types were significantly associated with more favorable subjective mental health, whereas the restricted network type was significantly associated with poorer ratings of mental and physical health. In addition, our analysis identified unique social network types related to religious activities. In summary, we developed a comprehensive social network typology for older Korean adults. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preventive practicum training in healthcare organizations. The Meharry model.

PubMed

Levine, R S; St Onge, J; Moriarty, C J; Bailey, S; Logan, T; Zhu, K; Nelson, B K; Hodder, R A; Marino, W

1999-07-01

Practicum training for preventive medicine residents often occurs in agencies whose community is geographically defined and whose governance is closely linked to public election. We were unsure about the financial ability of such departments to support training and are concerned that over-reliance on traditional health departments might not be best for either medically indigent populations or preventive medicine. We, therefore, sought to apply a public health model--based on a strategic partnership between nursing and preventive medicine--to a large health care organization. The result was formation of a mini-health department, suitable for fully accredited preventive medicine practicum training, within the Alvin C. York Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Murfreesboro, TN. This Center serves a defined population of 21,594 patients and about 1600 employees. The theoretical framework for the new department was based on demonstration of a close fit between the competencies expected of preventive medicine physicians by the American College of Preventive Medicine (ACPM) and activities required by the Joint Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations (JCAHO). Because of JCAHO requirements, many healthcare organizations already pay for preventive medicine services. By placing preventive medicine training faculty into existing budget slots at our institution, systemwide personnel costs for prevention decreased by about $36,000 per year, even as personnel funding for preventive medicine physicians increased from about $24,000 to $376,000 per year. Moreover, there was dramatic, sustained improvement in 17 indicators of preventive care quality as determined by an external peer review organization. In addition to providing a new venue for training, this model may also improve the quality and reach of preventive services, decreased fixed costs for service delivery, and yield new employment opportunities for preventive medicine physicians.

Population genomics reveals that an anthropophilic population of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in West Africa recently gave rise to American and Asian populations of this major disease vector.

PubMed

Crawford, Jacob E; Alves, Joel M; Palmer, William J; Day, Jonathan P; Sylla, Massamba; Ramasamy, Ranjan; Surendran, Sinnathamby N; Black, William C; Pain, Arnab; Jiggins, Francis M

2017-02-28

The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the main vector of dengue, Zika, chikungunya and yellow fever viruses. This major disease vector is thought to have arisen when the African subspecies Ae. aegypti formosus evolved from being zoophilic and living in forest habitats into a form that specialises on humans and resides near human population centres. The resulting domestic subspecies, Ae. aegypti aegypti, is found throughout the tropics and largely blood-feeds on humans. To understand this transition, we have sequenced the exomes of mosquitoes collected from five populations from around the world. We found that Ae. aegypti specimens from an urban population in Senegal in West Africa were more closely related to populations in Mexico and Sri Lanka than they were to a nearby forest population. We estimate that the populations in Senegal and Mexico split just a few hundred years ago, and we found no evidence of Ae. aegypti aegypti mosquitoes migrating back to Africa from elsewhere in the tropics. The out-of-Africa migration was accompanied by a dramatic reduction in effective population size, resulting in a loss of genetic diversity and rare genetic variants. We conclude that a domestic population of Ae. aegypti in Senegal and domestic populations on other continents are more closely related to each other than to other African populations. This suggests that an ancestral population of Ae. aegypti evolved to become a human specialist in Africa, giving rise to the subspecies Ae. aegypti aegypti. The descendants of this population are still found in West Africa today, and the rest of the world was colonised when mosquitoes from this population migrated out of Africa. This is the first report of an African population of Ae. aegypti aegypti mosquitoes that is closely related to Asian and American populations. As the two subspecies differ in their ability to vector disease, their existence side by side in West Africa may have important implications for disease transmission.

Evidence for r- and K-selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution.

PubMed

Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Visser, Marcel E; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar

2016-04-27

Understanding the variation in selection pressure on key life-history traits is crucial in our rapidly changing world. Density is rarely considered as a selective agent. To study its importance, we partition phenotypic selection in fluctuating environments into components representing the population growth rate at low densities and the strength of density dependence, using a new stochastic modelling framework. We analysed the number of eggs laid per season in a small song-bird, the great tit, and found balancing selection favouring large clutch sizes at small population densities and smaller clutches in years with large populations. A significant interaction between clutch size and population size in the regression for the Malthusian fitness reveals that those females producing large clutch sizes at small population sizes also are those that show the strongest reduction in fitness when population size is increased. This provides empirical support for ongoing r- and K-selection in this population, favouring phenotypes with large growth rates r at small population sizes and phenotypes with high competitive skills when populations are close to the carrying capacity K This selection causes long-term fluctuations around a stable mean clutch size caused by variation in population size, implying that r- and K-selection is an important mechanism influencing phenotypic evolution in fluctuating environments. This provides a general link between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes, operating through a joint influence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity on fluctuations in population size. © 2016 The Author(s).

Non-Parabolic Hydrodynamic Formulations for the Simulation of Inhomogeneous Semiconductor Devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, A. W.; Brennan, K. F.

1996-01-01

Hydrodynamic models are becoming prevalent design tools for small scale devices and other devices in which high energy effects can dominate transport. Most current hydrodynamic models use a parabolic band approximation to obtain fairly simple conservation equations. Interest in accounting for band structure effects in hydrodynamic device simulation has begun to grow since parabolic models cannot fully describe the transport in state of the art devices due to the distribution populating non-parabolic states within the band. This paper presents two different non-parabolic formulations or the hydrodynamic model suitable for the simulation of inhomogeneous semiconductor devices. The first formulation uses the Kane dispersion relationship ((hk)(exp 2)/2m = W(1 + alphaW). The second formulation makes use of a power law ((hk)(exp 2)/2m = xW(exp y)) for the dispersion relation. Hydrodynamic models which use the first formulation rely on the binomial expansion to obtain moment equations with closed form coefficients. This limits the energy range over which the model is valid. The power law formulation readily produces closed form coefficients similar to those obtained using the parabolic band approximation. However, the fitting parameters (x,y) are only valid over a limited energy range. The physical significance of the band non-parabolicity is discussed as well as the advantages/disadvantages and approximations of the two non-parabolic models. A companion paper describes device simulations based on the three dispersion relationships; parabolic, Kane dispersion and power law dispersion.

Non-parabolic hydrodynamic formulations for the simulation of inhomogeneous semiconductor devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Arlynn W.; Brennan, Kevin F.

1995-01-01

Hydrodynamic models are becoming prevalent design tools for small scale devices and other devices in which high energy effects can dominate transport. Most current hydrodynamic models use a parabolic band approximation to obtain fairly simple conservation equations. Interest in accounting for band structure effects in hydrodynamic device simulation has begun to grow since parabolic models can not fully describe the transport in state of the art devices due to the distribution populating non-parabolic states within the band. This paper presents two different non-parabolic formulations of the hydrodynamic model suitable for the simulation of inhomogeneous semiconductor devices. The first formulation uses the Kane dispersion relationship (hk)(exp 2)/2m = W(1 + alpha(W)). The second formulation makes use of a power law ((hk)(exp 2)/2m = xW(sup y)) for the dispersion relation. Hydrodynamic models which use the first formulation rely on the binomial expansion to obtain moment equations with closed form coefficients. This limits the energy range over which the model is valid. The power law formulation readily produces closed form coefficients similar to those obtained using the parabolic band approximation. However, the fitting parameters (x,y) are only valid over a limited energy range. The physical significance of the band non-parabolicity is discussed as well as the advantages/disadvantages and approximations of the two non-parabolic models. A companion paper describes device simulations based on the three dispersion relationships: parabolic, Kane dispersion, and power low dispersion.

Global population genetic structure and male-mediated gene flow in the green sea turtle (Chelonia mydas): analysis of microsatellite loci.

PubMed Central

Roberts, Mark A; Schwartz, Tonia S; Karl, Stephen A

2004-01-01

We assessed the degree of population subdivision among global populations of green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas, using four microsatellite loci. Previously, a single-copy nuclear DNA study indicated significant male-mediated gene flow among populations alternately fixed for different mitochondrial DNA haplotypes and that genetic divergence between populations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans was more common than subdivisions among populations within ocean basins. Even so, overall levels of variation at single-copy loci were low and inferences were limited. Here, the markedly more variable microsatellite loci confirm the presence of male-mediated gene flow among populations within ocean basins. This analysis generally confirms the genetic divergence between the Atlantic and Pacific. As with the previous study, phylogenetic analyses of genetic distances based on the microsatellite loci indicate a close genetic relationship among eastern Atlantic and Indian Ocean populations. Unlike the single-copy study, however, the results here cannot be attributed to an artifact of general low variability and likely represent recent or ongoing migration between ocean basins. Sequence analyses of regions flanking the microsatellite repeat reveal considerable amounts of cryptic variation and homoplasy and significantly aid in our understanding of population connectivity. Assessment of the allele frequency distributions indicates that at least some of the loci may not be evolving by the stepwise mutation model. PMID:15126404

The role of character displacement in the molarization of hominin mandibular premolars.

PubMed

Schroer, Kes; Wood, Bernard

2015-06-01

Closely related species are likely to experience resource competition in areas where their ranges overlap. Fossil evidence suggests that hominins in East Africa c. 2-1.5 million years ago may have lived synchronically and sympatrically, and that competition may have contributed to the different tooth sizes observed in Homo and Paranthropus. To assess the likelihood that these taxa overlapped, we applied a character displacement model to the postcanine tooth size of fossil hominins and validated this model in populations of living primates. Mandibular fourth premolar (P4 ) crown size was measured from fossil taxa and from living primate species where dietary overlap is established. Dimensions of the P4 crown were fitted to a character matrix and described as the response variables of a generalized linear model that took taxon and location as input variables. The model recovered significant divergence in samples of closely related, living primates. When applied to fossil hominins the same model detected strong indications of character displacement between early Homo and Paranthropus (P = 0.002) on the basis of their P4 crown size. Our study is an example of how ecologically informed morphologies measured in appropriate extant referents can provide a comparative context for assessing community and ecological evolution in the fossil record. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

How to Minimize the Attack Rate during Multiple Influenza Outbreaks in a Heterogeneous Population

PubMed Central

Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai; Antia, Rustom; Handel, Andreas

2012-01-01

Background If repeated interventions against multiple outbreaks are not feasible, there is an optimal level of control during the first outbreak. Any control measures above that optimal level will lead to an outcome that may be as sub-optimal as that achieved by an intervention that is too weak. We studied this scenario in more detail. Method An age-stratified ordinary-differential-equation model was constructed to study infectious disease outbreaks and control in a population made up of two groups, adults and children. The model was parameterized using influenza as an example. This model was used to simulate two consecutive outbreaks of the same infectious disease, with an intervention applied only during the first outbreak, and to study how cumulative attack rates were influenced by population composition, strength of inter-group transmission, and different ways of triggering and implementing the interventions. We assumed that recovered individuals are fully immune and the intervention does not confer immunity. Results/Conclusion The optimal intervention depended on coupling between the two population sub-groups, the length, strength and timing of the intervention, and the population composition. Population heterogeneity affected intervention strategies only for very low cross-transmission between groups. At more realistic values, coupling between the groups led to synchronization of outbreaks and therefore intervention strategies that were optimal in reducing the attack rates for each subgroup and the population overall coincided. For a sustained intervention of low efficacy, early intervention was found to be best, while at high efficacies, a delayed start was better. For short interventions, a delayed start was always advantageous, independent of the intervention efficacy. For most scenarios, starting the intervention after a certain cumulative proportion of children were infected seemed more robust in achieving close to optimal outcomes compared to a strategy that used a specified duration after an outbreak’s beginning as the trigger. PMID:22701558

Asthma exacerbation and proximity of residence to major roads: a population-based matched case-control study among the pediatric Medicaid population in Detroit, Michigan

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The relationship between asthma and traffic-related pollutants has received considerable attention. The use of individual-level exposure measures, such as residence location or proximity to emission sources, may avoid ecological biases. Method This study focused on the pediatric Medicaid population in Detroit, MI, a high-risk population for asthma-related events. A population-based matched case-control analysis was used to investigate associations between acute asthma outcomes and proximity of residence to major roads, including freeways. Asthma cases were identified as all children who made at least one asthma claim, including inpatient and emergency department visits, during the three-year study period, 2004-06. Individually matched controls were randomly selected from the rest of the Medicaid population on the basis of non-respiratory related illness. We used conditional logistic regression with distance as both categorical and continuous variables, and examined non-linear relationships with distance using polynomial splines. The conditional logistic regression models were then extended by considering multiple asthma states (based on the frequency of acute asthma outcomes) using polychotomous conditional logistic regression. Results Asthma events were associated with proximity to primary roads with an odds ratio of 0.97 (95% CI: 0.94, 0.99) for a 1 km increase in distance using conditional logistic regression, implying that asthma events are less likely as the distance between the residence and a primary road increases. Similar relationships and effect sizes were found using polychotomous conditional logistic regression. Another plausible exposure metric, a reduced form response surface model that represents atmospheric dispersion of pollutants from roads, was not associated under that exposure model. Conclusions There is moderately strong evidence of elevated risk of asthma close to major roads based on the results obtained in this population-based matched case-control study. PMID:21513554

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese: assessment for the 2013-2015 hunting seasons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Madsen, Jesper

2013-01-01

This report describes progress on the development of an adaptive harvestmanagement strategy for maintaining the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese near their agreed target level (60,000) by providing for sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. Specifically, this report provides an optimal harvest quota for the 2013-2015 hunting seasons and describes a process for evaluating whether emergency hunting closures would be needed during that period. By combining varying hypotheses about survival and reproduction, a suite of nine models have been developed that represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent, and the extent to which spring temperatures are important. The most current set of monitoring information was used to update model weights for the 1991 – 2012 period. Current model weights suggest no evidence for density-dependent survival. These results suggest that the pink-footed goose population may have recently experienced a release from density-dependent mechanisms, corresponding to the period of most rapid growth in population size. There was equivocal evidence for the effect of May temperature days (number of days with temperatures above freezing) on survival and on reproduction. The optimal harvest strategy suggests that the appropriate annual harvest quota for the 20132015 period is 15,000; hence there is no need to take emergency measures to close the upcoming hunting season. For comparison, the estimated harvest in 2012 was 11,000. If the harvest quota of 15,000 were met, the autumn 2013 population count is expected to be 76,000. If only the most recent 3-year mean harvest were realized (11,500), an autumn population size of 80,000 thousand is expected. Thus, it may be that harvest is approaching the magnitude needed to stabilize the population.

Frequency-dependent population dynamics: effect of sex ratio and mating system on the elasticity of population growth rate.

PubMed

Haridas, C V; Eager, Eric Alan; Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

2014-11-01

When vital rates depend on population structure (e.g., relative frequencies of males or females), an important question is how the long-term population growth rate λ responds to changes in rates. For instance, availability of mates may depend on the sex ratio of the population and hence reproductive rates could be frequency-dependent. In such cases change in any vital rate alters the structure, which in turn, affect frequency-dependent rates. We show that the elasticity of λ to a rate is the sum of (i) the effect of the linear change in the rate and (ii) the effect of nonlinear changes in frequency-dependent rates. The first component is always positive and is the classical elasticity in density-independent models obtained directly from the population projection matrix. The second component can be positive or negative and is absent in density-independent models. We explicitly express each component of the elasticity as a function of vital rates, eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the population projection matrix. We apply this result to a two-sex model, where male and female fertilities depend on adult sex ratio α (ratio of females to males) and the mating system (e.g., polygyny) through a harmonic mating function. We show that the nonlinear component of elasticity to a survival rate is negligible only when the average number of mates (per male) is close to α. In a strictly monogamous species, elasticity to female survival is larger than elasticity to male survival when α<1 (less females). In a polygynous species, elasticity to female survival can be larger than that of male survival even when sex ratio is female biased. Our results show how demography and mating system together determine the response to selection on sex-specific vital rates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Application of Humanized Mouse Models for the Study of Human Exclusive Viruses.

PubMed

Vahedi, Fatemeh; Giles, Elizabeth C; Ashkar, Ali A

2017-01-01

The symbiosis between humans and viruses has allowed human tropic pathogens to evolve intricate means of modulating the human immune response to ensure its survival among the human population. In doing so, these viruses have developed profound mechanisms that mesh closely with our human biology. The establishment of this intimate relationship has created a species-specific barrier to infection, restricting the virus-associated pathologies to humans. This specificity diminishes the utility of traditional animal models. Humanized mice offer a model unique to all other means of study, providing an in vivo platform for the careful examination of human tropic viruses and their interaction with human cells and tissues. These types of animal models have provided a reliable medium for the study of human-virus interactions, a relationship that could otherwise not be investigated without questionable relevance to humans.

Model of resonant high harmonic generation in multi-electron systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redkin, P. V.; Ganeev, R. A.

2017-09-01

We extend the 4-step analytical model of resonant enhancement of high harmonic generation to the systems possessing resonant transitions of inner-shell electrons. Resonant enhancement is explained by lasing without inversion in a three-level system of ground, excited and shifted resonant states, which are coupled to the fundamental field and its high harmonics. The role of inelastic scattering is studied by simulation of an excited state’s population dynamics. It is shown that maximal gain is achieved when the energy shift between the excited state and resonant state is close to the energy of the fundamental photon. To prove the concept we demonstrate the enhancement of harmonics in the In plasma using different pumps.

Food security in the 21st century: Global yield projections and agricultural expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, K. F.; Rulli, M.; D'Odorico, P.

2013-12-01

Global demands on agricultural lands are ever increasing as a result of population growth, changes in diet and increasing biofuel use. By mid-century, the demands for food and fiber are expected to roughly double with the population reaching 9.5 billion. However, earth's finite resource base places a ceiling on the amount of agricultural production that is possible. Several strategies have been widely discussed to meet these rapid increases and to extend the ceiling yet higher, including reducing waste, modifying diets, improving yield and productivity and expanding agriculture and aquaculture. One of the most promising of these is closing the yield gap of currently under-performing agricultural land that has the potential to be much more productive. With high inputs (e.g. irrigation, fertilizers), this strategy has real potential to increase food security, particularly in the developing world where population is expected to sharply increase and where a high potential for yield gap closure exists. Thus it is important to consider whether improvements in global yield can adequately meet global dietary demand during the 21st century. Constructing yield projections to the end of the century, we examine whether global crop production for 154 countries and 16 major food crops under selected agricultural and dietary scenarios can keep pace with estimates of population growth to 2100. By calculating the global production of calories, we are then able to examine how many people can be supported under future scenarios and how closing yield gaps can increase this potential. Our findings agree with previous studies that closing the yield gap alone cannot provide sufficient production by mid-century and that a heavy global dependence on trade will persist throughout the century. Using high-resolution global land suitability maps under a suite of climate models, we find that scenarios incorporating a combination of yield gap closure and agricultural expansion provide the most promise in meeting global demand. However, this must be done with the goal of sustainable agriculture in mind and in a way that minimizes detrimental environmental impacts, particularly to forested areas and rangelands.

The relationship between childhood adversity, recent stressors, and depression in college students attending a South African university.

PubMed

Mall, Sumaya; Mortier, Philippe; Taljaard, Lian; Roos, Janine; Stein, Dan J; Lochner, Christine

2018-03-09

College students are at risk of depression. This risk may be increased by the experience of childhood adversity and/or recent stressors. This study examined the association between reported experiences of childhood adversity, recent stressors and depression during the last 12 months in a cohort of South African university students. Six hundred and eighty-six first year students at Stellenbosch University in South Africa completed a health-focused e-survey that included items on childhood adversity, recent stressors and mood. Individual and population attributable risk proportions (PARP) between experiences of childhood adversity and 12-month stressful experiences and 12-month depression were estimated using multivariate binomial logistic regression analysis. About one in six students reported depression during the last 12 months. Being a victim of bullying and emotional abuse or emotional neglect during childhood were the strongest predictors of depression in the past year at both individual and population level. With regard to recent stressors, a romantic partner being unfaithful, serious ongoing arguments or break-ups with some other close friend or family member and a sexual or gender identity crisis were the strongest predictors of depression. The predictor effect of recent stressors was significantly reduced in the final model that adjusted for the type and number of childhood traumatic experiences. At a population level, academic stress, serious ongoing arguments or break-ups with a close friend or family member, and serious betrayal by someone close were the variables that yielded the highest PARP. Our findings suggest a significant relationship between early adversity, recent stressors, and depression here and throughout, consistent with the broader literature on predictors of depression. This study contributes to the limited data on college students' mental health in low and middle income countries including on the African continent. The findings provide information on the population level effect sizes of trauma as a risk factor for depression, as well as on the relationship between specific recent stressors and depression in college students.

Stable target opinion through power-law bias in information exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Datta, Amitava

2018-04-01

We study a model of binary decision making when a certain population of agents is initially seeded with two different opinions, "+" and "-," with fractions p1 and p2, respectively, p1+p2=1 . Individuals can reverse their initial opinion only once based on this information exchange. We study this model on a completely connected network, where any pair of agents can exchange information, and a two-dimensional square lattice with periodic boundary conditions, where information exchange is possible only between the nearest neighbors. We propose a model in which each agent maintains two counters of opposite opinions and accepts opinions of other agents with a power-law bias until a threshold is reached, when they fix their final opinion. Our model is inspired by the study of negativity bias and positive-negative asymmetry, which has been known in the psychology literature for a long time. Our model can achieve a stable intermediate mix of positive and negative opinions in a population. In particular, we show that it is possible to achieve close to any fraction p3, 0 ≤p3≤1 , of "-" opinion starting from an initial fraction p1 of "-" opinion by applying a bias through adjusting the power-law exponent of p3.

Stable target opinion through power-law bias in information exchange.

PubMed

Datta, Amitava

2018-04-01

We study a model of binary decision making when a certain population of agents is initially seeded with two different opinions, "+" and "-," with fractions p_{1} and p_{2}, respectively, p_{1}+p_{2}=1. Individuals can reverse their initial opinion only once based on this information exchange. We study this model on a completely connected network, where any pair of agents can exchange information, and a two-dimensional square lattice with periodic boundary conditions, where information exchange is possible only between the nearest neighbors. We propose a model in which each agent maintains two counters of opposite opinions and accepts opinions of other agents with a power-law bias until a threshold is reached, when they fix their final opinion. Our model is inspired by the study of negativity bias and positive-negative asymmetry, which has been known in the psychology literature for a long time. Our model can achieve a stable intermediate mix of positive and negative opinions in a population. In particular, we show that it is possible to achieve close to any fraction p_{3}, 0≤p_{3}≤1, of "-" opinion starting from an initial fraction p_{1} of "-" opinion by applying a bias through adjusting the power-law exponent of p_{3}.

Consistent post-reaction vibrational energy redistribution in DSMC simulations using TCE model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borges Sebastião, Israel; Alexeenko, Alina

2016-10-01

The direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method has been widely applied to study shockwaves, hypersonic reentry flows, and other nonequilibrium flow phenomena. Although there is currently active research on high-fidelity models based on ab initio data, the total collision energy (TCE) and Larsen-Borgnakke (LB) models remain the most often used chemistry and relaxation models in DSMC simulations, respectively. The conventional implementation of the discrete LB model, however, may not satisfy detailed balance when recombination and exchange reactions play an important role in the flow energy balance. This issue can become even more critical in reacting mixtures involving polyatomic molecules, such as in combustion. In this work, this important shortcoming is addressed and an empirical approach to consistently specify the post-reaction vibrational states close to thermochemical equilibrium conditions is proposed within the TCE framework. Following Bird's quantum-kinetic (QK) methodology for populating post-reaction states, the new TCE-based approach involves two main steps. The state-specific TCE reaction probabilities for a forward reaction are first pre-computed from equilibrium 0-D simulations. These probabilities are then employed to populate the post-reaction vibrational states of the corresponding reverse reaction. The new approach is illustrated by application to exchange and recombination reactions relevant to H2-O2 combustion processes.

Close genetic relationships in vast territories: autosomal and X chromosome Alu diversity in Yakuts from Siberia.

PubMed

Rocañín-Arjó, Ares; Rodríguez-Botigué, Laura; Esteban, Esther; Theves, Catherine; Evdokimova, Larissa E; Fedorova, Sardana A; Gibert, Morgane; Crubezy, Eric; Moral, Pedro

2013-01-01

Twelve autosomal and 8 X chromosome Alu markers were genotyped for the first time in 161 Central and West Yakuts to test their ability to reconstruct the genetic history of these populations, the northernmost Turkic-speaker ethnic group living in Siberia. Autosomal data revealed that both groups showed extremely close genetic distances to other populations of Siberian origins that occupied areas from Lake Baikal, the ancestral place of origin of Yakuts, to North Siberia, their current territories. Autosomal and X chromosome data revealed some discrepancies on the genetic differentiation and the effective sizes of Central and West Yakuts. Such discrepancies could be related to the patrilineal and occasionally polygamous structure of these populations. Autosomal and X Alu markers are informative markers to reconstruct population past demography and history, but their utility is limited by the available data. This study represents a contribution for further investigations on these populations.

Resolving the interactions between population density and air pollution emissions controls in the San Joaquin Valley, USA.

PubMed

Hixson, Mark; Mahmud, Abdullah; Hu, Jianlin; Kleeman, Michael J

2012-05-01

The effectiveness of emissions control programs designed to reduce concentrations of airborne particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) in California's San Joaquin Valley was studied in the year 2030 under three growth scenarios: low, medium, and high population density. Base-case inventories for each choice of population density were created using a coupled emissions modeling system that simultaneously considered interactions between land use and transportation, area source, and point source emissions. The ambient PM2.5 response to each combination of population density and emissions control was evaluated using a regional chemical transport model over a 3-week winter stagnation episode. Comparisons between scenarios were based on regional average and population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations. In the absence of any emissions control program, population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5 in the future San Joaquin Valley are lowest undergrowth scenarios that emphasize low population density. A complete ban on wood burning and a 90% reduction in emissions from food cooking operations and diesel engines must occur before medium- to high-density growth scenarios result in lower population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5. These trends partly reflect the fact that existing downtown urban cores that naturally act as anchor points for new high-density growth in the San Joaquin Valley are located close to major transportation corridors for goods movement. Adding growth buffers around transportation corridors had little impact in the current analysis, since the 8-km resolution of the chemical transport model already provided an artificial buffer around major emissions sources. Assuming that future emissions controls will greatly reduce or eliminate emissions from residential wood burning, food cooking, and diesel engines, the 2030 growth scenario using "as-planned" (medium) population density achieves the lowest population-weighted average PM2.5 concentration in the future San Joaquin Valley during a severe winter stagnation event. The San Joaquin Valley is one of the most heavily polluted air basins in the United States that are projected to experience strong population growth in the coming decades. The best plan to improve air quality in the region combines medium- or high-density population growth with rigorous emissions controls. In the absences of controls, high-density growth leads to increased population exposure to PM2.5 compared with low-density growth scenarios (urban sprawl).

Population structure in the model grass Brachypodium distachyon is highly correlated with flowering differences across broad geographic areas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tyler, Ludmila; Lee, Scott J.; Young, Nelson D.

The small, annual grass Brachypodium distachyon (L.) Beauv., a close relative of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) and barley ( Hordeum vulgare L.), is a powerful model system for cereals and bioenergy grasses. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of natural variation can elucidate the genetic basis of complex traits but have been so far limited in B. distachyon by the lack of large numbers of well-characterized and sufficiently diverse accessions. Here, we report on genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) of 84 B. distachyon, seven B. hybridum, and three B. stacei accessions with diverse geographic origins including Albania, Armenia, Georgia, Italy, Spain, and Turkey. Overmore » 90,000 high-quality single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) distributed across the Bd21 reference genome were identified. Our results confirm the hybrid nature of the B. hybridum genome, which appears as a mosaic of B. distachyon-like and B. stacei-like sequences. Analysis of more than 50,000 SNPs for the B. distachyon accessions revealed three distinct, genetically defined populations. Surprisingly, these genomic profiles are associated with differences in flowering time rather than with broad geographic origin. High levels of differentiation in loci associated with floral development support the differences in flowering phenology between B. distachyon populations. Genome-wide association studies combining genotypic and phenotypic data also suggest the presence of one or more photoperiodism, circadian clock, and vernalization genes in loci associated with flowering time variation within B. distachyon populations. As a result, our characterization elucidates genes underlying population differences, expands the germplasm resources available for Brachypodium, and illustrates the feasibility and limitations of GWAS in this model grass.« less

Population structure in the model grass Brachypodium distachyon is highly correlated with flowering differences across broad geographic areas

DOE PAGES

Tyler, Ludmila; Lee, Scott J.; Young, Nelson D.; ...

2016-04-29

The small, annual grass Brachypodium distachyon (L.) Beauv., a close relative of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) and barley ( Hordeum vulgare L.), is a powerful model system for cereals and bioenergy grasses. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of natural variation can elucidate the genetic basis of complex traits but have been so far limited in B. distachyon by the lack of large numbers of well-characterized and sufficiently diverse accessions. Here, we report on genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) of 84 B. distachyon, seven B. hybridum, and three B. stacei accessions with diverse geographic origins including Albania, Armenia, Georgia, Italy, Spain, and Turkey. Overmore » 90,000 high-quality single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) distributed across the Bd21 reference genome were identified. Our results confirm the hybrid nature of the B. hybridum genome, which appears as a mosaic of B. distachyon-like and B. stacei-like sequences. Analysis of more than 50,000 SNPs for the B. distachyon accessions revealed three distinct, genetically defined populations. Surprisingly, these genomic profiles are associated with differences in flowering time rather than with broad geographic origin. High levels of differentiation in loci associated with floral development support the differences in flowering phenology between B. distachyon populations. Genome-wide association studies combining genotypic and phenotypic data also suggest the presence of one or more photoperiodism, circadian clock, and vernalization genes in loci associated with flowering time variation within B. distachyon populations. As a result, our characterization elucidates genes underlying population differences, expands the germplasm resources available for Brachypodium, and illustrates the feasibility and limitations of GWAS in this model grass.« less

Application of CEDA and ASPIC computer packages to the hairtail ( Trichiurus japonicus) fishery in the East China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yu; Liu, Qun

2013-01-01

Surplus-production models are widely used in fish stock assessment and fisheries management due to their simplicity and lower data demands than age-structured models such as Virtual Population Analysis. The CEDA (catch-effort data analysis) and ASPIC (a surplus-production model incorporating covariates) computer packages are data-fitting or parameter estimation tools that have been developed to analyze catch-and-effort data using non-equilibrium surplus production models. We applied CEDA and ASPIC to the hairtail ( Trichiurus japonicus) fishery in the East China Sea. Both packages produced robust results and yielded similar estimates. In CEDA, the Schaefer surplus production model with log-normal error assumption produced results close to those of ASPIC. CEDA is sensitive to the choice of initial proportion, while ASPIC is not. However, CEDA produced higher R 2 values than ASPIC.

Metaheuristic and Machine Learning Models for TFE-731-2, PW4056, and JT8D-9 Cruise Thrust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baklacioglu, Tolga

2017-08-01

The requirement for an accurate engine thrust model has a major antecedence in airline fuel saving programs, assessment of environmental effects of fuel consumption, emissions reduction studies, and air traffic management applications. In this study, utilizing engine manufacturers' real data, a metaheuristic model based on genetic algorithms (GAs) and a machine learning model based on neural networks (NNs) trained with Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), delta-bar-delta (DBD), and conjugate gradient (CG) algorithms were accomplished to incorporate the effect of both flight altitude and Mach number in the estimation of thrust. For the GA model, the analysis of population size impact on the model's accuracy and effect of number of data on model coefficients were also performed. For the NN model, design of optimum topology was searched for one- and two-hidden-layer networks. Predicted thrust values presented a close agreement with real thrust data for both models, among which LM trained NNs gave the best accuracies.

[Mobile Health Units: An Analysis of Concepts and Implementation Requirements in Rural Regions.

PubMed

Hämel, K; Kutzner, J; Vorderwülbecke, J

2017-12-01

Access to health services in rural regions represents a challenge. The development of care models that respond to health service shortages and pay particular attention to the increasing health care needs of the elderly is an important concern. A model that has been implemented in other countries is that of mobile health units. But until now, there is no overview of their possible objectives, functions and implementation requirements. This paper is based on a literature analysis and an internet research on mobile health units in rural regions. Mobile health units aim to avoid regional undersupply and address particularly vulnerable population groups. In the literature, mobile health units are described with a focus on specific illnesses, as well as those that provide comprehensive, partly multi-professional primary care that is close to patients' homes. The implementation of mobile health units is demanding; the key challenges are (a) alignment to the needs of the regional population, (b) user-oriented access and promotion of awareness and acceptance of mobile health units by the local population, and (c) network building within existing care structures to ensure continuity of care for patients. To fulfill these requirements, a community-oriented program development and implementation is important. Mobile health units could represent an interesting model for the provision of health care in rural regions in Germany. International experiences are an important starting point and should be taken into account for the further development of models in Germany. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

A Multiscale Computational Model of the Response of Swine Epidermis After Acute Irradiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hu, Shaowen; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2012-01-01

Radiation exposure from Solar Particle Events can lead to very high skin dose for astronauts on exploration missions outside the protection of the Earth s magnetic field [1]. Assessing the detrimental effects to human skin under such adverse conditions could be predicted by conducting territorial experiments on animal models. In this study we apply a computational approach to simulate the experimental data of the radiation response of swine epidermis, which is closely similar to human epidermis [2]. Incorporating experimentally measured histological and cell kinetic parameters into a multiscale tissue modeling framework, we obtain results of population kinetics and proliferation index comparable to unirradiated and acutely irradiated swine experiments [3]. It is noted the basal cell doubling time is 10 to 16 days in the intact population, but drops to 13.6 hr in the regenerating populations surviving irradiation. This complex 30-fold variation is proposed to be attributed to the shortening of the G1 phase duration. We investigate this radiation induced effect by considering at the sub-cellular level the expression and signaling of TGF-beta, as it is recognized as a key regulatory factor of tissue formation and wound healing [4]. This integrated model will allow us to test the validity of various basic biological rules at the cellular level and sub-cellular mechanisms by qualitatively comparing simulation results with published research, and should lead to a fuller understanding of the pathophysiological effects of ionizing radiation on the skin.

A Hidden Population of Hot Subdwarf Stars in Close Binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wade, Richard A.; Clausen, Drew R.; Kopparapu, Ravi Kumar; O'Shaughnessy, Richard; Stark, M. A.; Walentosky, M. J.

2010-12-01

Observations to date preferentially find Galactic hot subdwarf (sdB/sdO) stars in binaries when the subdwarfs are more luminous than their relatively faint companions (G/K/M dwarfs, white dwarfs). As suggested by Han et al. [1], this selection bias may distort our perspective of the evolutionary channels that form hot subdwarfs in the galactic disk. A predicted and possibly more numerous population of binaries features a lower-mass, lower-luminosity, longer-lived hot subdwarf hiding in the glare from its companion: the subdwarf+A/early F binaries. Such systems may arise when mass transfer is initiated in the Hertzsprung gap; the A/F companion in some cases was ``created'' from a lower-mass star (i.e., it would be a blue straggler if seen in a cluster). A survey is underway at Penn State to identify hot subdwarfs paired with F stars, determine their properties, and establish their space density. The project makes use of ground and space archival data to identify these systems (from their UV excesses) and new spectroscopic observations to determine their orbital periods and other properties. Successful characterization of this group of close binaries should help to challenge, calibrate, or refine models of binary star evolution that are used in population synthesis studies, including the relative importance of the RLOF and common-envelope channels for the formation of hot subdwarfs. The motivation, methodology, and status of this search for hidden hot subdwarfs are presented in this contribution.

Fast Open-World Person Re-Identification.

PubMed

Zhu, Xiatian; Wu, Botong; Huang, Dongcheng; Zheng, Wei-Shi

2018-05-01

Existing person re-identification (re-id) methods typically assume that: 1) any probe person is guaranteed to appear in the gallery target population during deployment (i.e., closed-world) and 2) the probe set contains only a limited number of people (i.e., small search scale). Both assumptions are artificial and breached in real-world applications, since the probe population in target people search can be extremely vast in practice due to the ambiguity of probe search space boundary. Therefore, it is unrealistic that any probe person is assumed as one target people, and a large-scale search in person images is inherently demanded. In this paper, we introduce a new person re-id search setting, called large scale open-world (LSOW) re-id, characterized by huge size probe images and open person population in search thus more close to practical deployments. Under LSOW, the under-studied problem of person re-id efficiency is essential in addition to that of commonly studied re-id accuracy. We, therefore, develop a novel fast person re-id method, called Cross-view Identity Correlation and vErification (X-ICE) hashing, for joint learning of cross-view identity representation binarisation and discrimination in a unified manner. Extensive comparative experiments on three large-scale benchmarks have been conducted to validate the superiority and advantages of the proposed X-ICE method over a wide range of the state-of-the-art hashing models, person re-id methods, and their combinations.

The demand control model and circadian saliva cortisol variations in a Swedish population based sample (The PART study)

PubMed Central

Alderling, Magnus; Theorell, Töres; de la Torre, Bartolomé; Lundberg, Ingvar

2006-01-01

Background Previous studies of the relationship between job strain and blood or saliva cortisol levels have been small and based on selected occupational groups. Our aim was to examine the association between job strain and saliva cortisol levels in a population-based study in which a number of potential confounders could be adjusted for. Methods The material derives from a population-based study in Stockholm on mental health and its potential determinants. Two data collections were performed three years apart with more than 8500 subjects responding to a questionnaire in both waves. In this paper our analyses are based on 529 individuals who held a job, participated in both waves as well as in an interview linked to the second wave. They gave saliva samples at awakening, half an hour later, at lunchtime and before going to bed on a weekday in close connection with the interview. Job control and job demands were assessed from the questionnaire in the second wave. Mixed models were used to analyse the association between the demand control model and saliva cortisol. Results Women in low strain jobs (high control and low demands) had significantly lower cortisol levels half an hour after awakening than women in high strain (low control and high demands), active (high control and high demands) or passive jobs (low control and low demands). There were no significant differences between the groups during other parts of the day and furthermore there was no difference between the job strain, active and passive groups. For men, no differences were found between demand control groups. Conclusion This population-based study, on a relatively large sample, weakly support the hypothesis that the demand control model is associated with saliva cortisol concentrations. PMID:17129377

Iron Age and Anglo-Saxon genomes from East England reveal British migration history

PubMed Central

Schiffels, Stephan; Haak, Wolfgang; Paajanen, Pirita; Llamas, Bastien; Popescu, Elizabeth; Loe, Louise; Clarke, Rachel; Lyons, Alice; Mortimer, Richard; Sayer, Duncan; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Cooper, Alan; Durbin, Richard

2016-01-01

British population history has been shaped by a series of immigrations, including the early Anglo-Saxon migrations after 400 CE. It remains an open question how these events affected the genetic composition of the current British population. Here, we present whole-genome sequences from 10 individuals excavated close to Cambridge in the East of England, ranging from the late Iron Age to the middle Anglo-Saxon period. By analysing shared rare variants with hundreds of modern samples from Britain and Europe, we estimate that on average the contemporary East English population derives 38% of its ancestry from Anglo-Saxon migrations. We gain further insight with a new method, rarecoal, which infers population history and identifies fine-scale genetic ancestry from rare variants. Using rarecoal we find that the Anglo-Saxon samples are closely related to modern Dutch and Danish populations, while the Iron Age samples share ancestors with multiple Northern European populations including Britain. PMID:26783965

On the effects of suprathermal populations in dusty plasmas: The case of dust-ion-acoustic waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazar, M.; Kourakis, I.; Poedts, S.; Fichtner, H.

2018-07-01

Suprathermal populations with energetic distributions deviating from a standard Maxwellian are ubiquitous in dusty plasmas from space environments, as a proof that these systems are out of thermal equilibrium. The excess of free energy may have important implications in the relaxation processes by the plasma waves and fluctuations, as well as in their dissipation. In order to emphasize the effects of suprathermal populations a new realistic interpretation is proposed on the basis of an advanced Kappa modeling in accord with the observations. This article is focused on the kinetic description of dust-modified ion acoustic (DIA) waves in the presence of Kappa-distributed (suprathermal) particles. Our methodology follows closely recent considerations on the structural characteristics of Kappa distributions, contrasting the high-energy tails enhanced by the suprathermal populations with the Maxwellian (thermal) core of the distribution. The effects on DIA waves are found to be highly dependent on the nature of suprathermal particles: both the wave-frequency and Landau damping rate are inhibited by the suprathermal electrons, while the suprathermal ions have an opposite influence.

Spectral Study of Measles Epidemics: The Dependence of Spectral Gradient on the Population Size of the Community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumi, Ayako; Olsen, Lars Folke; Ohtomo, Norio; Tanaka, Yukio; Sawamura, Sadashi

2003-02-01

We have carried out spectral analysis of measles notifications in several communities in Denmark, UK and USA. The results confirm that each power spectral density (PSD) shows exponential characteristics, which are universally observed in the PSD for time series generated from nonlinear dynamical system. The exponential gradient increases with the population size. For almost all communities, many spectral lines observed in each PSD can be fully assigned to linear combinations of several fundamental periods, suggesting that the measles data are substantially noise-free. The optimum least squares fitting curve calculated using these fundamental periods essentially reproduces an underlying variation of the measles data, and an extension of the curve can be used to predict measles epidemics. For the communities with large population sizes, some PSD patterns obtained from segment time series analysis show a close resemblance to the PSD patterns at the initial stages of a period-doubling bifurcation process for the so-called susceptible/exposed/infectious/recovered (SEIR) model with seasonal forcing. The meaning of the relationship between the exponential gradient and the population size is discussed.

Sequencing an Ashkenazi reference panel supports population-targeted personal genomics and illuminates Jewish and European origins

PubMed Central

Carmi, Shai; Hui, Ken Y.; Kochav, Ethan; Liu, Xinmin; Xue, James; Grady, Fillan; Guha, Saurav; Upadhyay, Kinnari; Ben-Avraham, Dan; Mukherjee, Semanti; Bowen, B. Monica; Thomas, Tinu; Vijai, Joseph; Cruts, Marc; Froyen, Guy; Lambrechts, Diether; Plaisance, Stéphane; Van Broeckhoven, Christine; Van Damme, Philip; Van Marck, Herwig; Barzilai, Nir; Darvasi, Ariel; Offit, Kenneth; Bressman, Susan; Ozelius, Laurie J.; Peter, Inga; Cho, Judy H.; Ostrer, Harry; Atzmon, Gil; Clark, Lorraine N.; Lencz, Todd; Pe’er, Itsik

2014-01-01

The Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) population is a genetic isolate close to European and Middle Eastern groups, with genetic diversity patterns conducive to disease mapping. Here we report high-depth sequencing of 128 complete genomes of AJ controls. Compared with European samples, our AJ panel has 47% more novel variants per genome and is eightfold more effective at filtering benign variants out of AJ clinical genomes. Our panel improves imputation accuracy for AJ SNP arrays by 28%, and covers at least one haplotype in ≈67% of any AJ genome with long, identical-by-descent segments. Reconstruction of recent AJ history from such segments confirms a recent bottleneck of merely ≈350 individuals. Modelling of ancient histories for AJ and European populations using their joint allele frequency spectrum determines AJ to be an even admixture of European and likely Middle Eastern origins. We date the split between the two ancestral populations to ≈12–25 Kyr, suggesting a predominantly Near Eastern source for the repopulation of Europe after the Last Glacial Maximum. PMID:25203624

Molecular hyperdiversity and evolution in very large populations.

PubMed

Cutter, Asher D; Jovelin, Richard; Dey, Alivia

2013-04-01

The genomic density of sequence polymorphisms critically affects the sensitivity of inferences about ongoing sequence evolution, function and demographic history. Most animal and plant genomes have relatively low densities of polymorphisms, but some species are hyperdiverse with neutral nucleotide heterozygosity exceeding 5%. Eukaryotes with extremely large populations, mimicking bacterial and viral populations, present novel opportunities for studying molecular evolution in sexually reproducing taxa with complex development. In particular, hyperdiverse species can help answer controversial questions about the evolution of genome complexity, the limits of natural selection, modes of adaptation and subtleties of the mutation process. However, such systems have some inherent complications and here we identify topics in need of theoretical developments. Close relatives of the model organisms Caenorhabditis elegans and Drosophila melanogaster provide known examples of hyperdiverse eukaryotes, encouraging functional dissection of resulting molecular evolutionary patterns. We recommend how best to exploit hyperdiverse populations for analysis, for example, in quantifying the impact of noncrossover recombination in genomes and for determining the identity and micro-evolutionary selective pressures on noncoding regulatory elements. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Assessing the role of spatial correlations during collective cell spreading

PubMed Central

Treloar, Katrina K.; Simpson, Matthew J.; Binder, Benjamin J.; McElwain, D. L. Sean; Baker, Ruth E.

2014-01-01

Spreading cell fronts are essential features of development, repair and disease processes. Many mathematical models used to describe the motion of cell fronts, such as Fisher's equation, invoke a mean–field assumption which implies that there is no spatial structure, such as cell clustering, present. Here, we examine the presence of spatial structure using a combination of in vitro circular barrier assays, discrete random walk simulations and pair correlation functions. In particular, we analyse discrete simulation data using pair correlation functions to show that spatial structure can form in a spreading population of cells either through sufficiently strong cell–to–cell adhesion or sufficiently rapid cell proliferation. We analyse images from a circular barrier assay describing the spreading of a population of MM127 melanoma cells using the same pair correlation functions. Our results indicate that the spreading melanoma cell populations remain very close to spatially uniform, suggesting that the strength of cell–to–cell adhesion and the rate of cell proliferation are both sufficiently small so as not to induce any spatial patterning in the spreading populations. PMID:25026987

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese: 2015 progress summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Madsen, Jesper

2015-01-01

This document describes progress to date on the development of an adaptive harvest management strategy for maintaining the Svalbard population of pink‐footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) near their agreed target level (60,000) by providing for sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. This report provides an assessment of the most recent monitoring information (1991-2014) and its implications for the harvest management strategy, and it is an update of an initial assessment for 2013-2015 (see http://pinkfootedgoose.aewa.info/). By combining varying hypotheses about survival and reproduction, a suite of nine models have been developed that represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent. Current updated model weights suggest little evidence for density-dependent survival and reproduction, suggesting that the population may have recently experienced a release from density-dependent mechanisms, corresponding to the period of most rapid growth in population size. The optimal harvest strategy for the 2013–2015 hunting seasons prescribed a harvest quota of 15,000 per year. The harvest in the 2014 hunting season was 14,991, compared to 11,081 in 2013, mostly due to an increase in harvest in Denmark during January 2015. The percentage of young in the fall of 2014 was 10.3%, which is lower than average. The observed population size of 59,000 in May 2015 was much lower than expected. For the 2015 hunting season, observed population size and temperature days suggest that an emergency closure should be considered. In the event a harvest of 15,000 is maintained, predicted population size in May 2016 is 51,700 (95% CL: 41,600-64,300), based on observed TempDays = 9 in May 2015 and the most recent model weights. On the other hand, if the season were closed this year, we would expect a population size of 66,700 (95% CL: 53,600-82,900) in May 2016. A total harvest of 6,700 would be expected to result in a 2016 population size at goal (i.e., 60,000).

Sulfur Atoms Adsorbed on Cu(100) at Low Coverage: Characterization and Stability against Complexation

DOE PAGES

Walen, Holly; Liu, Da-Jiang; Oh, Junepyo; ...

2017-08-22

By using scanning tunneling microscopy, we characterize the size and bias-dependent shape of sulfur atoms on Cu(100) at low coverage (below 0.1 monolayers) and low temperature (quenched from 300 to 5 K). Sulfur atoms populate the Cu(100) terraces more heavily than steps at low coverage, but as coverage approaches 0.1 monolayers, close-packed step edges become fully populated, with sulfur atoms occupying sites on top of the step. Density functional theory (DFT) corroborates the preferential population of terraces at low coverage as well as the step adsorption site. In experiment, small regions with p(2 × 2)-like atomic arrangements emerge on themore » terraces as sulfur coverage approaches 0.1 monolayer. Using DFT, a lattice gas model has been developed, and Monte Carlo simulations based on this model have been compared with the observed terrace configurations. A model containing eight pairwise interaction energies, all repulsive, gives qualitative agreement. Experiment shows that atomic adsorbed sulfur is the only species on Cu(100) up to a coverage of 0.09 monolayers. There are no Cu–S complexes. Conversely, prior work has shown that a Cu 2S 3 complex forms on Cu(111) under comparable conditions. On the basis of DFT, this difference can be attributed mainly to stronger adsorption of sulfur on Cu(100) as compared with Cu(111).« less

The Study of the plasmaspheric refilling using the data from the ERG, the VAPs, the ground-based magnetometers and the IPE model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obana, Y.; Maruyama, N.; Masahito, N.; Matsuoka, A.; Teramoto, M.; Nomura, R.; Fujimoto, A.; Tanaka, Y.; Shinohara, M.; Kasahara, Y.; Matsuda, S.; Kumamoto, A.; Tsuchiya, F.; Yoshizumi, M.; Shinohara, I.

2017-12-01

Earth's inner magnetosphere is a complex dynamical region of geo space comprising plasma populations with wide energy ranges, the plasmasphere, ring current, and radiation belts. They form a closely coupled system, thus, the plasmasphere is the lowest energy population in the inner magnetosphere, but the accurate prediction of the evolution of the plasmasphere is critical in understanding the dynamics of the inner magnetosphere, which include even the highest energy population, the radiation belts. In this study, we study plasmaspheric refilling following geomagnetic storms using data from ERG-MGF, ERG-PWE, RBSP-EMFISIS and Ground-based magneto­meters. DC magnetic field data measured by ERG-MGF, RBSP-EMFISIS and ground-based magnetometers provides the frequency of the toroidal mode field line resonances. From this information, the equatorial plasma mass density is estimated by solving the MHD wave equation for suitable models of the magnetic field and the field line density distribution. ERG-PWE and RBSP-EMFISIS provide measurements of wave electric and magnetic field, thus we can estimate the local electron density from the plasma wave spectrograms by identifying narrow-band emission at the upper-hybrid resonance frequency. Furthermore, using Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model (IPE), we calculate the plasmaspheric refilling rates and evaluate the relative contribution of various mechanisms (heating, neutral particle density, composition and wings, etc.) to the refilling rate.

Sulfur Atoms Adsorbed on Cu(100) at Low Coverage: Characterization and Stability against Complexation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walen, Holly; Liu, Da-Jiang; Oh, Junepyo

By using scanning tunneling microscopy, we characterize the size and bias-dependent shape of sulfur atoms on Cu(100) at low coverage (below 0.1 monolayers) and low temperature (quenched from 300 to 5 K). Sulfur atoms populate the Cu(100) terraces more heavily than steps at low coverage, but as coverage approaches 0.1 monolayers, close-packed step edges become fully populated, with sulfur atoms occupying sites on top of the step. Density functional theory (DFT) corroborates the preferential population of terraces at low coverage as well as the step adsorption site. In experiment, small regions with p(2 × 2)-like atomic arrangements emerge on themore » terraces as sulfur coverage approaches 0.1 monolayer. Using DFT, a lattice gas model has been developed, and Monte Carlo simulations based on this model have been compared with the observed terrace configurations. A model containing eight pairwise interaction energies, all repulsive, gives qualitative agreement. Experiment shows that atomic adsorbed sulfur is the only species on Cu(100) up to a coverage of 0.09 monolayers. There are no Cu–S complexes. Conversely, prior work has shown that a Cu 2S 3 complex forms on Cu(111) under comparable conditions. On the basis of DFT, this difference can be attributed mainly to stronger adsorption of sulfur on Cu(100) as compared with Cu(111).« less

Obesity-associated cardiac dysfunction in starvation-selected Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Hardy, Christopher M; Birse, Ryan T; Wolf, Matthew J; Yu, Lin; Bodmer, Rolf; Gibbs, Allen G

2015-09-15

There is a clear link between obesity and cardiovascular disease, but the complexity of this interaction in mammals makes it difficult to study. Among the animal models used to investigate obesity-associated diseases, Drosophila melanogaster has emerged as an important platform of discovery. In the laboratory, Drosophila can be made obese through lipogenic diets, genetic manipulations, and adaptation to evolutionary stress. While dietary and genetic changes that cause obesity in flies have been demonstrated to induce heart dysfunction, there have been no reports investigating how obesity affects the heart in laboratory-evolved populations. Here, we studied replicated populations of Drosophila that had been selected for starvation resistance for over 65 generations. These populations evolved characteristics that closely resemble hallmarks of metabolic syndrome in mammals. We demonstrate that starvation-selected Drosophila have dilated hearts with impaired contractility. This phenotype appears to be correlated with large fat deposits along the dorsal cuticle, which alter the anatomical position of the heart. We demonstrate a strong relationship between fat storage and heart dysfunction, as dilation and reduced contractility can be rescued through prolonged fasting. Unlike other Drosophila obesity models, the starvation-selected lines do not exhibit excessive intracellular lipid deposition within the myocardium and rather store excess triglycerides in large lipid droplets within the fat body. Our findings provide a new model to investigate obesity-associated heart dysfunction. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

The response to selection for broad male response to female sex pheromone and its implications for divergence in close-range mating behavior in the European corn borer moth, Ostrinia nubilalis.

PubMed

Droney, David C; Musto, Callie J; Mancuso, Katie; Roelofs, Wendell L; Linn, Charles E

2012-12-01

Coordinated sexual communication systems, seen in many species of moths, are hypothesized to be under strong stabilizing natural selection. Stabilized communication systems should be resistant to change, but there are examples of species/populations that show great diversification. A possible solution is that it is directional sexual selection on variation in male response that drives evolution. We tested a component of this model by asking whether 'rare' males (ca. 5 % of all males in a population) of the European corn borer moth (ECB), Ostrinia nubilalis, that respond to the sex pheromones of both ECB and a different Ostrinia species (O. furnacalis, the Asian corn borer, ACB), might play an important role in diversification. We specifically tested, via artificial selection, whether this broad male response has an evolvable genetic component. We increased the frequency of broad male response from 5 to 70 % in 19 generations, showing that broad-responding males could be important for the evolution of novel communication systems in ECB. We did not find a broader range of mating acceptance of broad males by females of the base population, however, suggesting that broad response would be unlikely to increase in frequency without the involvement of other factors. However, we found that ECB selection-line females accepted a broader range of courting males, including those of ACB, than did females of the base population. Thus, a genetic correlation exists between broad, long-range response to female sex pheromone and the breadth of female acceptance of males at close range. These results are discussed in the context of evolution of novel communication systems in Ostrinia.

Temperature and food quantity effects on the harpacticoid copepod Nitocra spinipes: Combining in vivo bioassays with population modeling

PubMed Central

Bui, Thuy T.; Lundström Belleza, Elin; Brinkmann, Markus; Hollert, Henner; Breitholtz, Magnus

2017-01-01

The harpacticoid copepod Nitocra spinipes has become a popular model species for toxicity testing over the past few decades. However, the combined influence of temperature and food shortage, two climate change-related stressors, has never been assessed in this species. Consequently, effects of three temperatures (15, 20 and 25°C) and six food regimes (between 0 and 5 × 105 algal cells/mL) on the life cycle of N. spinipes were examined in this study. Similarly to other copepod species, development times and brood sizes decreased with rising temperatures. Mortality was lowest in the 20°C temperature setup, indicating a close-by temperature optimum for this species. Decreasing food concentrations led to increased development times, higher mortality and a reduction in brood size. A sex ratio shift toward more females per male was observed for increasing temperatures, while no significant relationship with food concentration was found. Temperature and food functions for each endpoint were integrated into an existing individual-based population model for N. spinipes which in the future may serve as an extrapolation tool in environmental risk assessment. The model was able to accurately reproduce the experimental data in subsequent verification simulations. We suggest that temperature, food shortage, and potentially other climate change-related stressors should be considered in environmental risk assessment of chemicals to account for non-optimal exposure conditions that may occur in the field. Furthermore, we advocate combining in vivo bioassays with population modeling as a cost effective higher tier approach to assess such considerations. PMID:28334000

An Immunization Strategy for Hidden Populations.

PubMed

Chen, Saran; Lu, Xin

2017-06-12

Hidden populations, such as injecting drug users (IDUs), sex workers (SWs) and men who have sex with men (MSM), are considered at high risk of contracting and transmitting infectious diseases such as AIDS, gonorrhea, syphilis etc. However, public health interventions to such groups are prohibited due to strong privacy concerns and lack of global information, which is a necessity for traditional strategies such as targeted immunization and acquaintance immunization. In this study, we introduce an innovative intervention strategy to be used in combination with a sampling approach that is widely used for hidden populations, Respondent-driven Sampling (RDS). The RDS strategy is implemented in two steps: First, RDS is used to estimate the average degree (personal network size) and degree distribution of the target population with sample data. Second, a cut-off threshold is calculated and used to screen the respondents to be immunized. Simulations on model networks and real-world networks reveal that the efficiency of the RDS strategy is close to that of the targeted strategy. As the new strategy can be implemented with the RDS sampling process, it provides a cost-efficient and feasible approach for disease intervention and control for hidden populations.

Retention of Ag-specific memory CD4+ T cells in the draining lymph node indicates lymphoid tissue resident memory populations.

PubMed

Marriott, Clare L; Dutton, Emma E; Tomura, Michio; Withers, David R

2017-05-01

Several different memory T-cell populations have now been described based upon surface receptor expression and migratory capabilities. Here we have assessed murine endogenous memory CD4 + T cells generated within a draining lymph node and their subsequent migration to other secondary lymphoid tissues. Having established a model response targeting a specific peripheral lymph node, we temporally labelled all the cells within draining lymph node using photoconversion. Tracking of photoconverted and non-photoconverted Ag-specific CD4 + T cells revealed the rapid establishment of a circulating memory population in all lymph nodes within days of immunisation. Strikingly, a resident memory CD4 + T cell population became established in the draining lymph node and persisted for several months in the absence of detectable migration to other lymphoid tissue. These cells most closely resembled effector memory T cells, usually associated with circulation through non-lymphoid tissue, but here, these cells were retained in the draining lymph node. These data indicate that lymphoid tissue resident memory CD4 + T-cell populations are generated in peripheral lymph nodes following immunisation. © 2017 The Authors. European Journal of Immunology published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Inferring invasive species abundance using removal data from management actions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Amy J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Miller, Ryan S.; Farnsworth, Matthew L.; Lewis, Jesse S.; Moxcey, Michael; Pepin, Kim M.

2016-01-01

Evaluation of the progress of management programs for invasive species is crucial for demonstrating impacts to stakeholders and strategic planning of resource allocation. Estimates of abundance before and after management activities can serve as a useful metric of population management programs. However, many methods of estimating population size are too labor intensive and costly to implement, posing restrictive levels of burden on operational programs. Removal models are a reliable method for estimating abundance before and after management using data from the removal activities exclusively, thus requiring no work in addition to management. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate abundance from removal data accounting for varying levels of effort, and used simulations to assess the conditions under which reliable population estimates are obtained. We applied this model to estimate site-specific abundance of an invasive species, feral swine (Sus scrofa), using removal data from aerial gunning in 59 site/time-frame combinations (480–19,600 acres) throughout Oklahoma and Texas, USA. Simulations showed that abundance estimates were generally accurate when effective removal rates (removal rate accounting for total effort) were above 0.40. However, when abundances were small (<50) the effective removal rate needed to accurately estimates abundances was considerably higher (0.70). Based on our post-validation method, 78% of our site/time frame estimates were accurate. To use this modeling framework it is important to have multiple removals (more than three) within a time frame during which demographic changes are minimized (i.e., a closed population; ≤3 months for feral swine). Our results show that the probability of accurately estimating abundance from this model improves with increased sampling effort (8+ flight hours across the 3-month window is best) and increased removal rate. Based on the inverse relationship between inaccurate abundances and inaccurate removal rates, we suggest auxiliary information that could be collected and included in the model as covariates (e.g., habitat effects, differences between pilots) to improve accuracy of removal rates and hence abundance estimates.

Multiple estimates of transmissibility for the 2009 influenza pandemic based on influenza-like-illness data from small US military populations.

PubMed

Riley, Pete; Ben-Nun, Michal; Armenta, Richard; Linker, Jon A; Eick, Angela A; Sanchez, Jose L; George, Dylan; Bacon, David P; Riley, Steven

2013-01-01

Rapidly characterizing the amplitude and variability in transmissibility of novel human influenza strains as they emerge is a key public health priority. However, comparison of early estimates of the basic reproduction number during the 2009 pandemic were challenging because of inconsistent data sources and methods. Here, we define and analyze influenza-like-illness (ILI) case data from 2009-2010 for the 50 largest spatially distinct US military installations (military population defined by zip code, MPZ). We used publicly available data from non-military sources to show that patterns of ILI incidence in many of these MPZs closely followed the pattern of their enclosing civilian population. After characterizing the broad patterns of incidence (e.g. single-peak, double-peak), we defined a parsimonious SIR-like model with two possible values for intrinsic transmissibility across three epochs. We fitted the parameters of this model to data from all 50 MPZs, finding them to be reasonably well clustered with a median (mean) value of 1.39 (1.57) and standard deviation of 0.41. An increasing temporal trend in transmissibility ([Formula: see text], p-value: 0.013) during the period of our study was robust to the removal of high transmissibility outliers and to the removal of the smaller 20 MPZs. Our results demonstrate the utility of rapidly available - and consistent - data from multiple populations.

Multiple Estimates of Transmissibility for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic Based on Influenza-like-Illness Data from Small US Military Populations

PubMed Central

Riley, Pete; Ben-Nun, Michal; Armenta, Richard; Linker, Jon A.; Eick, Angela A.; Sanchez, Jose L.; George, Dylan; Bacon, David P.; Riley, Steven

2013-01-01

Rapidly characterizing the amplitude and variability in transmissibility of novel human influenza strains as they emerge is a key public health priority. However, comparison of early estimates of the basic reproduction number during the 2009 pandemic were challenging because of inconsistent data sources and methods. Here, we define and analyze influenza-like-illness (ILI) case data from 2009–2010 for the 50 largest spatially distinct US military installations (military population defined by zip code, MPZ). We used publicly available data from non-military sources to show that patterns of ILI incidence in many of these MPZs closely followed the pattern of their enclosing civilian population. After characterizing the broad patterns of incidence (e.g. single-peak, double-peak), we defined a parsimonious SIR-like model with two possible values for intrinsic transmissibility across three epochs. We fitted the parameters of this model to data from all 50 MPZs, finding them to be reasonably well clustered with a median (mean) value of 1.39 (1.57) and standard deviation of 0.41. An increasing temporal trend in transmissibility (, p-value: 0.013) during the period of our study was robust to the removal of high transmissibility outliers and to the removal of the smaller 20 MPZs. Our results demonstrate the utility of rapidly available – and consistent – data from multiple populations. PMID:23696723

Phylogeography of Liquidambar styraciflua (Altingiaceae) in Mesoamerica: survivors of a Neogene widespread temperate forest (or cloud forest) in North America?

PubMed Central

Ruiz-Sanchez, Eduardo; Ornelas, Juan Francisco

2014-01-01

We investigate the genetic variation between populations of the American sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua), a tree species with a disjunct distribution between northeastern Texas and Mexico, by analyzing sequences of two chloroplast DNA plastid regions in Mesoamerica. Our results revealed phylogeographical structure, with private haplotypes distributed in unique environmental space at either side of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, and a split in the absence of gene flow dating back ca. 4.2–1.4 million years ago (MYA). Species distribution modeling results fit a model of refugia along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts but the present ranges of US and Mesoamerican populations persisted disjunct during glacial/interglacial cycles. Divergence between the US and Mesoamerican (ca. 8.4–2.8 MYA) populations of L. styraciflua and asymmetrical gene flow patterns support the hypothesis of a long-distance dispersal during the Pliocene, with fragmentation since the most recent glacial advance (120,000 years BP) according to coalescent simulations and high effective migration rates from Mesoamerica to the USA and close to zero in the opposite direction. Our findings implicate the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt as a porous barrier driving genetic divergence of L. styraciflua, corresponding with environmental niche differences, during the Pliocene to Quaternary volcanic arc episode 3.6 MYA, and a Mesoamerican origin of populations in the USA. PMID:24634718

Characterization of 47 MHC class I sequences in Filipino cynomolgus macaques

PubMed Central

Campbell, Kevin J.; Detmer, Ann M.; Karl, Julie A.; Wiseman, Roger W.; Blasky, Alex J.; Hughes, Austin L.; Bimber, Benjamin N.; O’Connor, Shelby L.; O’Connor, David H.

2009-01-01

Cynomolgus macaques (Macaca fascicularis) provide increasingly common models for infectious disease research. Several geographically distinct populations of these macaques from Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean island of Mauritius are available for pathogenesis studies. Though host genetics may profoundly impact results of such studies, similarities and differences between populations are often overlooked. In this study we identified 47 full-length MHC class I nucleotide sequences in 16 cynomolgus macaques of Filipino origin. The majority of MHC class I sequences characterized (39 of 47) were unique to this regional population. However, we discovered eight sequences with perfect identity and six sequences with close similarity to previously defined MHC class I sequences from other macaque populations. We identified two ancestral MHC haplotypes that appear to be shared between Filipino and Mauritian cynomolgus macaques, notably a Mafa-B haplotype that has previously been shown to protect Mauritian cynomolgus macaques against challenge with a simian/human immunodeficiency virus, SHIV89.6P. We also identified a Filipino cynomolgus macaque MHC class I sequence for which the predicted protein sequence differs from Mamu-B*17 by a single amino acid. This is important because Mamu-B*17 is strongly associated with protection against simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) challenge in Indian rhesus macaques. These findings have implications for the evolutionary history of Filipino cynomolgus macaques as well as for the use of this model in SIV/SHIV research protocols. PMID:19107381

Serum vaspin concentrations are closely related to insulin resistance, and rs77060950 at SERPINA12 genetically defines distinct group with higher serum levels in Japanese population.

PubMed

Teshigawara, Sanae; Wada, Jun; Hida, Kazuyuki; Nakatsuka, Atsuko; Eguchi, Jun; Murakami, Kazutoshi; Kanzaki, Motoko; Inoue, Kentaro; Terami, Takahiro; Katayama, Akihiro; Iseda, Izumi; Matsushita, Yuichi; Miyatake, Nobuyuki; McDonald, John F; Hotta, Kikuko; Makino, Hirofumi

2012-07-01

Vaspin is an adipokine with insulin-sensitizing effects identified from visceral adipose tissues of genetically obese rats. We investigated genetic and nongenetic factors that define serum concentrations of vaspin. Vaspin levels were measured with RIA in Japanese subjects with normal fasting plasma glucose (NFG; n = 259) and type 2 diabetes patients (T2D; n = 275). Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) at SERPINA12 (vaspin) gene locus were discovered, and five SNP were genotyped in the subjects with varied body mass index (n = 1138). The level of serum vaspin in 93% of the samples was found to vary from 0.2 to nearly 2 ng/ml in NFG subjects (n = 259) and from 0.2 to nearly 3 ng/ml in T2D patients (n = 275) (Vaspin(Low) group), whereas a significant subpopulation (7%) in both groups displayed much higher levels of 10-40 ng/ml (Vaspin(High) group). In the Vaspin(Low) group, serum vaspin levels in T2D were significantly higher than healthy subjects (0.99 ± 0.04 vs. 0.86 ± 0.02 ng/ml; P < 0.01). Both in T2D and genotyped Japanese population, serum vaspin levels closely correlated with homeostasis model of assessment for insulin resistance rather than anthropometric parameters. By genotyping, rs77060950 tightly linked to serum vaspin levels, i.e. CC (0.6 ± 0.4 ng/ml), CA (18.4 ± 9.6 ng/ml), and AA (30.5 ± 5.1 ng/ml) (P < 2 × 10(-16)). Putative GATA-2 and GATA-3 binding consensus site was found at rs77060950. Serum vaspin levels were related to insulin resistance, and higher levels of serum vaspin in 7% of the Japanese population are closely linked to minor allele sequence (A) of rs77060950.

A collisional-radiative model for low-pressure weakly magnetized Ar plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xi-Ming; Tsankov, Tsanko; Czarnetzki, Uwe; Marchuk, Oleksandr

2016-09-01

Collisional-radiative (CR) models are widely investigated in plasma physics for describing the kinetics of reactive species and for optical emission spectroscopy. This work reports a new Ar CR model used in low-pressure (0.01-10 Pa) weakly magnetized (<0.1 Tesla) plasmas, including ECR, helicon, and NLD discharges. In this model 108 realistic levels are individually studied, i.e. 51 lowest levels of the Ar atom and 57 lowest levels of the Ar ion. We abandon the concept of an ``effective level'' usually adopted in previous models for glow discharges. Only in this way the model can correctly predict the non-equilibrium population distribution of close energy levels. In addition to studying atomic metastable and radiative levels, this model describes the kinetic processes of ionic metastable and radiative levels in detail for the first time. This is important for investigation of plasma-surface interaction and for optical diagnostics using atomic and ionic line-ratios. This model could also be used for studying Ar impurities in tokamaks and astrophysical plasmas.

The Brownian mean field model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavanis, Pierre-Henri

2014-05-01

We discuss the dynamics and thermodynamics of the Brownian mean field (BMF) model which is a system of N Brownian particles moving on a circle and interacting via a cosine potential. It can be viewed as the canonical version of the Hamiltonian mean field (HMF) model. The BMF model displays a second order phase transition from a homogeneous phase to an inhomogeneous phase below a critical temperature T c = 1 / 2. We first complete the description of this model in the mean field approximation valid for N → +∞. In the strong friction limit, the evolution of the density towards the mean field Boltzmann distribution is governed by the mean field Smoluchowski equation. For T < T c , this equation describes a process of self-organization from a non-magnetized (homogeneous) phase to a magnetized (inhomogeneous) phase. We obtain an analytical expression for the temporal evolution of the magnetization close to T c . Then, we take fluctuations (finite N effects) into account. The evolution of the density is governed by the stochastic Smoluchowski equation. From this equation, we derive a stochastic equation for the magnetization and study its properties both in the homogenous and inhomogeneous phase. We show that the fluctuations diverge at the critical point so that the mean field approximation ceases to be valid. Actually, the limits N → +∞ and T → T c do not commute. The validity of the mean field approximation requires N( T - T c ) → +∞ so that N must be larger and larger as T approaches T c . We show that the direction of the magnetization changes rapidly close to T c while its amplitude takes a long time to relax. We also indicate that, for systems with long-range interactions, the lifetime of metastable states scales as e N except close to a critical point. The BMF model shares many analogies with other systems of Brownian particles with long-range interactions such as self-gravitating Brownian particles, the Keller-Segel model describing the chemotaxis of bacterial populations, the Kuramoto model describing the collective synchronization of coupled oscillators, the Desai-Zwanzig model, and the models describing the collective motion of social organisms such as bird flocks or fish schools.

Fine-scaled human genetic structure revealed by SNP microarrays.

PubMed

Xing, Jinchuan; Watkins, W Scott; Witherspoon, David J; Zhang, Yuhua; Guthery, Stephen L; Thara, Rangaswamy; Mowry, Bryan J; Bulayeva, Kazima; Weiss, Robert B; Jorde, Lynn B

2009-05-01

We report an analysis of more than 240,000 loci genotyped using the Affymetrix SNP microarray in 554 individuals from 27 worldwide populations in Africa, Asia, and Europe. To provide a more extensive and complete sampling of human genetic variation, we have included caste and tribal samples from two states in South India, Daghestanis from eastern Europe, and the Iban from Malaysia. Consistent with observations made by Charles Darwin, our results highlight shared variation among human populations and demonstrate that much genetic variation is geographically continuous. At the same time, principal components analyses reveal discernible genetic differentiation among almost all identified populations in our sample, and in most cases, individuals can be clearly assigned to defined populations on the basis of SNP genotypes. All individuals are accurately classified into continental groups using a model-based clustering algorithm, but between closely related populations, genetic and self-classifications conflict for some individuals. The 250K data permitted high-level resolution of genetic variation among Indian caste and tribal populations and between highland and lowland Daghestani populations. In particular, upper-caste individuals from Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh form one defined group, lower-caste individuals from these two states form another, and the tribal Irula samples form a third. Our results emphasize the correlation of genetic and geographic distances and highlight other elements, including social factors that have contributed to population structure.

Emissions, dispersion and human exposure of mercury from a Swedish chlor-alkali plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wängberg, I.; Barregard, L.; Sällsten, G.; Haeger-Eugensson, M.; Munthe, J.; Sommar, J.

Mercury in air near a mercury cell chlor-alkali plant in Sweden has been measured within the EU-project EMECAP. Based on the measurements and modelling the annual distributions of GEM and RGM have been calculated for the local area around the plant. The average concentration of GEM in residential areas near the plant was found to be 1-3.5 ng m -3 higher in comparison to the background concentration in this part of Sweden. The emission of RGM (0.55 kg year -1) results in elevated RGM concentrations close to the plant. The greatest impact on the local area is due to wet deposition of RGM. However, only a small fraction (0.4%) of all mercury being emitted was found to be deposited in the local area. No impact on urinary mercury could be demonstrated in the population living close to the plant.

The Importance of Electron Source Population to the Remarkable Enhancement of Radiation belt Electrons during the October 2012 Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, W.; Cunningham, G.; Reeves, G. D.; Chen, Y.; Henderson, M. G.; Blake, J. B.; Baker, D. N.; Spence, H.

2013-12-01

During the October 8-9 2012 storm, the MeV electron fluxes in the heart of the outer radiation belt are first wiped out then exhibit a three-orders-of-magnitude increase on the timescale of hours, as observed by the MagEIS and REPT instruments aboard the Van Allen Probes. There is strong observational evidence that the remarkable enhancement is due to local acceleration by chorus waves, as shown in the recent Science paper by Reeves et al.1. However, the importance of the dynamic electron source population transported in from the plasma sheet, to the observed remarkable enhancement, has not been studied. We illustrate the importance of the source population with our simulation of the event using the DREAM 3D diffusion model. Three new modifications have been implemented in the model: 1) incorporating a realistic and time-dependent low-energy boundary condition at 100 keV obtained from the MagEIS data; 2) utilizing event-specific chorus wave distributions derived from the low-energy electron precipitation observed by POES and validated against the in situ wave data from EMFISIS; 3) using an ';open' boundary condition at L*=11 and implementing electron lifetimes on the order of the drift period outside the solar-wind driven last closed drift shell. The model quantitatively reproduces the MeV electron dynamics during this event, including the fast dropout at the start of Oct. 8th, low electron flux during the first Dst dip, and the remarkable enhancement peaked at L*=4.2 during the second Dst dip. By comparing the model results with realistic source population against those with constant low-energy boundary (see figure), we find that the realistic electron source population is critical to reproduce the observed fast and significant increase of MeV electrons. 1Reeves, G. D., et al. (2013), Electron Acceleration in the Heart of the Van Allen Radiation Belts, Science, DOI:10.1126/science.1237743. Comparison between data and model results during the October 2012 storm for electrons at μ=3168 MeV/G and K=0.1 G1/2Re. Top plot is the electron phase space density data measured by the two Van Allen Probes; middle plot shows the results from the DREAM 3D diffusion model with a realistic electron source population derived from MagEIS data; and the bottom plot is the model results with a constant source population.

Prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain genotypes in Taiwan reveals a close link to ethnic and population migration.

PubMed

Dou, Horng-Yunn; Chen, Yih-Yuan; Kou, Shu-Chen; Su, Ih-Jen

2015-06-01

Taiwan is a relatively isolated island, serving as a mixing vessel for colonization by different waves of ethnic and migratory groups over the past 4 centuries. The potential transmission pattern of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in different ethnic and migratory populations remains to be elucidated. By using mycobacterial tandem repeat sequences as genetic markers, the prevalence of M. tuberculosis strains in Taiwan revealed a close link to the historical migration. Interestingly, the M. tuberculosis strain in the aborigines of Eastern and Central Taiwan had a dominance of the Haarlem (Dutch) strain while those in Southern Taiwan had a dominance of the East-African Indian (EAI) strain. The prevalence of different M. tuberculosis strains in specific ethnic populations suggests that M. tuberculosis transmission is limited and restricted to close contact. The prevalence of the Beijing modern strain in the young population causes a concern for M. tuberculosis control, because of high virulence and drug resistance. Furthermore, our data using molecular genotyping should provide valuable information on the historical study of the origin and migration of aborigines in Taiwan. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Branched-chain and aromatic amino acid profiles and diabetes risk in Chinese populations.

PubMed

Chen, Tianlu; Ni, Yan; Ma, Xiaojing; Bao, Yuqian; Liu, Jiajian; Huang, Fengjie; Hu, Cheng; Xie, Guoxiang; Zhao, Aihua; Jia, Weiping; Jia, Wei

2016-02-05

Recent studies revealed strong evidence that branched-chain and aromatic amino acids (BCAAs and AAAs) are closely associated with the risk of developing type 2 diabetes in several Western countries. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential role of BCAAs and AAAs in predicting the diabetes development in Chinese populations. The serum levels of valine, leucine, isoleucine, tyrosine, and phenylalanine were measured in a longitudinal and a cross sectional studies with a total of 429 Chinese participants at different stages of diabetes development, using an ultra-performance liquid chromatography triple quadruple mass spectrometry platform. The alterations of the five AAs in Chinese populations are well in accordance with previous reports. Early elevation of the five AAs and their combined score was closely associated with future development of diabetes, suggesting an important role of these metabolites as early markers of diabetes. On the other hand, the five AAs were not as good as existing clinical markers in differentiating diabetic patients from their healthy counterparts. Our findings verified the close correlation of BCAAs and AAAs with insulin resistance and future development of diabetes in Chinese populations and highlighted the predictive value of these markers for future development of diabetes.

Branched-chain and aromatic amino acid profiles and diabetes risk in Chinese populations

PubMed Central

Chen, Tianlu; Ni, Yan; Ma, Xiaojing; Bao, Yuqian; Liu, Jiajian; Huang, Fengjie; Hu, Cheng; Xie, Guoxiang; Zhao, Aihua; Jia, Weiping; Jia, Wei

2016-01-01

Recent studies revealed strong evidence that branched-chain and aromatic amino acids (BCAAs and AAAs) are closely associated with the risk of developing type 2 diabetes in several Western countries. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential role of BCAAs and AAAs in predicting the diabetes development in Chinese populations. The serum levels of valine, leucine, isoleucine, tyrosine, and phenylalanine were measured in a longitudinal and a cross sectional studies with a total of 429 Chinese participants at different stages of diabetes development, using an ultra-performance liquid chromatography triple quadruple mass spectrometry platform. The alterations of the five AAs in Chinese populations are well in accordance with previous reports. Early elevation of the five AAs and their combined score was closely associated with future development of diabetes, suggesting an important role of these metabolites as early markers of diabetes. On the other hand, the five AAs were not as good as existing clinical markers in differentiating diabetic patients from their healthy counterparts. Our findings verified the close correlation of BCAAs and AAAs with insulin resistance and future development of diabetes in Chinese populations and highlighted the predictive value of these markers for future development of diabetes. PMID:26846565

Estimation of a genetically viable population for multigenerational interstellar voyaging: Review and data for project Hyperion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Cameron M.

2014-04-01

Designing interstellar starships for human migration to exoplanets requires establishing the starship population, which factors into many variables including closed-ecosystem design, architecture, mass and propulsion. I review the central issues of population genetics (effects of mutation, migration, selection and drift) for human populations on such voyages, specifically referencing a roughly 5-generation (c. 150-year) voyage currently in the realm of thought among Icarus Interstellar's Project Hyperion research group. I present several formulae as well as concrete numbers that can be used to help determine populations that could survive such journeys in good health. I find that previously proposed such populations, on the order of a few hundred individuals, are significantly too low to consider based on current understanding of vertebrate (including human) genetics and population dynamics. Population genetics theory, calculations and computer modeling determine that a properly screened and age- and sex-structured total founding population (Nc) of anywhere from roughly 14,000 to 44,000 people would be sufficient to survive such journeys in good health. A safe and well-considered Nc figure is 40,000, an Interstellar Migrant Population (IMP) composed of an Effective Population [Ne] of 23,400 reproductive males and females, the rest being pre- or post-reproductive individuals. This number would maintain good health over five generations despite (a) increased inbreeding resulting from a relatively small human population, (b) depressed genetic diversity due to the founder effect, (c) demographic change through time and (d) expectation of at least one severe population catastrophe over the 5-generation voyage.

The impact of antibiotics (benzylpenicillin, and nystatin) on the biological properties of ordinary chernozems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akimenko, Yu. V.; Kazeev, K. Sh.; Kolesnikov, S. I.

2014-09-01

In recent years, the input of antibiotics into soils has sharply increased. We studied the impact antibiotics (benzylpenicillin, pharmasin, and nystatin) at different concentrations (100 and 600 mg/kg) on population densities of microorganisms and enzymatic activity of ordinary chernozems in model experiments. The applied doses of antibiotics had definite suppressing effects on population densities of microorganisms (up to 30-70% of the control) and on the soil enzymatic activity (20-70% of the control). Correlation analysis showed close correlation between the concentrations of antibiotics and the population densities of soil microorganisms ( r = -0.68-0.86). Amylolytic bacteria had the highest resistance to the antibiotics, whereas ammonifying bacteria had the lowest resistance. Among the studied enzymes belonging to oxidoreductases and hydrolases, catalase and phosphatase had the highest and the lowest resistance to the antibiotics, respectively. The effect of antibiotics on the biological properties of the chernozem lasted for a long time. The studied parameters were not completely recovered in 120 days.

Variation in the local population dynamics of the short-lived Opuntia macrorhiza (Cactaceae).

PubMed

Haridas, C V; Keeler, Kathleen H; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

2015-03-01

Spatiotemporal variation in demographic rates can have profound effects for population persistence, especially for dispersal-limited species living in fragmented landscapes. Long-term studies of plants in such habitats help with understanding the impacts of fragmentation on population persistence but such studies are rare. In this work, we reanalyzed demographic data from seven years of the short-lived cactus Opuntia macrorhiza var. macrorhiza at five plots in Boulder, Colorado. Previous work combining data from all years and all plots predicted a stable population (deterministic log lamda approximately 0). This approach assumed that all five plots were part of a single population. Since the plots were located in a suburban-agricultural interface separated by highways, grazing lands, and other barriers, and O. macrorhiza is likely dispersal limited, we analyzed the dynamics of each plot separately using stochastic matrix models assuming each plot represented a separate population. We found that the stochastic population growth rate log lamdaS varied widely between populations (log lamdaS = 0.1497, 0.0774, -0.0230, -0.2576, -0.4989). The three populations with the highest growth rates were located close together in space, while the two most isolated populations had the lowest growth rates suggesting that dispersal between populations is critical for the population viability of O. macrorhiza. With one exception, both our prospective (stochastic elasticity) and retrospective (stochastic life table response experiments) analysis suggested that means of stasis and growth, especially of smaller plants, were most important for population growth rate. This is surprising because recruitment is typically the most important vital rate in a short-lived species such as O. macrorhiza. We found that elasticity to the variance was mostly negligible, suggesting that O. macrorhiza populations are buffered against large temporal variation. Finally, single-year elasticities to means of transitions to the smallest stage (mostly due to reproduction) and growth differed considerably from their long-term elasticities. It is important to be aware of this difference when using models to predict the effect of manipulating plant vital rates within the time frame of typical plant demographic studies.

Modeling deep brain stimulation: point source approximation versus realistic representation of the electrode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Tianhe C.; Grill, Warren M.

2010-12-01

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) has emerged as an effective treatment for movement disorders; however, the fundamental mechanisms by which DBS works are not well understood. Computational models of DBS can provide insights into these fundamental mechanisms and typically require two steps: calculation of the electrical potentials generated by DBS and, subsequently, determination of the effects of the extracellular potentials on neurons. The objective of this study was to assess the validity of using a point source electrode to approximate the DBS electrode when calculating the thresholds and spatial distribution of activation of a surrounding population of model neurons in response to monopolar DBS. Extracellular potentials in a homogenous isotropic volume conductor were calculated using either a point current source or a geometrically accurate finite element model of the Medtronic DBS 3389 lead. These extracellular potentials were coupled to populations of model axons, and thresholds and spatial distributions were determined for different electrode geometries and axon orientations. Median threshold differences between DBS and point source electrodes for individual axons varied between -20.5% and 9.5% across all orientations, monopolar polarities and electrode geometries utilizing the DBS 3389 electrode. Differences in the percentage of axons activated at a given amplitude by the point source electrode and the DBS electrode were between -9.0% and 12.6% across all monopolar configurations tested. The differences in activation between the DBS and point source electrodes occurred primarily in regions close to conductor-insulator interfaces and around the insulating tip of the DBS electrode. The robustness of the point source approximation in modeling several special cases—tissue anisotropy, a long active electrode and bipolar stimulation—was also examined. Under the conditions considered, the point source was shown to be a valid approximation for predicting excitation of populations of neurons in response to DBS.

77 FR 24967 - Center for Scientific Review; Notice of Closed Meetings

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-26

... Special Emphasis Panel PAR12-010 Smoking and Tobacco Revision Applications: Social Sciences and Population... . Name of Committee: Center for Scientific Review Special Emphasis Panel Social Sciences and Population...

[Comorbidity of substance use with mental disorders].

PubMed

Leonidaki, V; Maliori, M

2009-01-01

This contribution reviews the international literature about dual diagnosis, meaning patients who have simultaneously mental health problems and substance use disorders and discusses epidemiology, clinical characteristics, but primarily etiopathogenesis and different treatment models and interventions. The epidemiological data coming from large-scale studies in the general population in USA, Australia and UK demonstrate the close relationship between mental health problems and substance use disorders. Also, the results from Greek research projects support this close relationship, but their research designs have significant limitations. Multiple and high risks are common in this population, like violent or suicidal behavior, self-harm, physical problems, while they appear less responsive to treatment. Subsequently, different models for etiopathogenesis of dual diagnosis have been suggested: (a) Causal relationship: secondary substance use disorder is subsequent of primary mental illness (self-medication hypothesis, supersenstivity model) or vice versa (alcohol, cannabis, and cocaine use trigger or contribute to development of mental illness). (b) Third factor as the cause of both mental and substance use disorders (genetic factor, neuropathology, traumatic experience, personality characteristics, multiple factors). (c) Comorbidty is due to chance. (d) Each disorder mutually exacerbates the other, regardless the cause. Here, the relationship between alcohol and depression is discussed further as example. The ideas and the research-evidence which support each of these models are presented. Also there is an overview of different treatment models: (a) Consecutive treatment: mental health treatment and substance misuse treatment are provided consecutively. (b) Parallel treatments: the patient attends programs of both mental health and substance use services simultaneously. (c) Integrated treatment: the same clinical team addresses both mental health issues and substance use disorders. The first two models have significant weaknesses due to lack of focus on the interaction of the different disorders or to administrative and managerial barriers. On the other hand, integrated programs appear to overcome these limitations. They use modified interventions provided by the same team in order to address the multiple needs of the patients. Different types of integrated programs are discussed. More pragmatist inter ventions should also be taken into consideration. It is expected that some direction for research and clinical practice to Greece will emerge from this contribution.

Gas cloud G2 can illuminate the black hole population near the galactic center.

PubMed

Bartos, Imre; Haiman, Zoltán; Kocsis, Bence; Márka, Szabolcs

2013-05-31

Galactic nuclei are expected to be densely populated with stellar- and intermediate-mass black holes. Exploring this population will have important consequences for the observation prospects of gravitational waves as well as understanding galactic evolution. The gas cloud G2 currently approaching Sgr A* provides an unprecedented opportunity to probe the black hole and neutron star population of the Galactic nucleus. We examine the possibility of a G2-cloud-black-hole encounter and its detectability with current x-ray satellites, such as Chandra and NuSTAR. We find that multiple encounters are likely to occur close to the pericenter, which may be detectable upon favorable circumstances. This opportunity provides an additional important science case for leading x-ray observatories to closely follow G2 on its way to the nucleus.

Insulin delivery and nocturnal glucose control in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Tauschmann, Martin; Hovorka, Roman

2017-12-01

Nocturnal glucose control remains challenging in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes due to highly variable overnight insulin requirements. The issue may be addressed by glucose responsive insulin delivery based on real-time continuous glucose measurements. Areas covered: This review outlines recent developments of glucose responsive insulin delivery systems from a paediatric perspective. We cover threshold-based suspend application, predictive low glucose suspend, and more advanced single hormone and dual-hormone closed-loop systems. Approaches are evaluated in relation to nocturnal glucose control particularly during outpatient randomised controlled trials. Expert opinion: Significant progress translating research from controlled clinical centre settings to free-living unsupervised home studies have been achieved over the past decade. Nocturnal glycaemic control can be improved whilst reducing the risk of hypoglycaemia with closed-loop systems. Following the US regulatory approval of the first hybrid closed-loop system in non-paediatric population, large multinational closed-loop clinical trials and pivotal studies including paediatric populations are underway or in preparation to facilitate the use of closed-loop systems in clinical practice.

Ambulatory versus home versus clinic blood pressure: the association with subclinical cerebrovascular diseases: the Ohasama Study.

PubMed

Hara, Azusa; Tanaka, Kazushi; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Kondo, Takeo; Kikuya, Masahiro; Metoki, Hirohito; Hashimoto, Takanao; Satoh, Michihiro; Inoue, Ryusuke; Asayama, Kei; Obara, Taku; Hirose, Takuo; Izumi, Shin-Ichi; Satoh, Hiroshi; Imai, Yutaka

2012-01-01

The usefulness of ambulatory, home, and casual/clinic blood pressure measurements to predict subclinical cerebrovascular diseases (silent cerebrovascular lesions and carotid atherosclerosis) was compared in a general population. Data on ambulatory, home, and casual/clinic blood pressures and brain MRI to detect silent cerebrovascular lesions were obtained in 1007 subjects aged ≥55 years in a general population of Ohasama, Japan. Of the 1007 subjects, 583 underwent evaluation of the extent of carotid atherosclerosis. Twenty-four-hour, daytime, and nighttime ambulatory and home blood pressure levels were closely associated with the risk of silent cerebrovascular lesions and carotid atherosclerosis (all P<0.05). When home and one of the ambulatory blood pressure values were simultaneously included in the same regression model, each of the ambulatory blood pressure values remained a significant predictor of silent cerebrovascular lesions, whereas home blood pressure lost its predictive value. Of the ambulatory blood pressure values, nighttime blood pressure was the strongest predictor of silent cerebrovascular lesions. The home blood pressure value was more closely associated with the risk of carotid atherosclerosis than any of the ambulatory blood pressure values when home and one of the ambulatory blood pressure values were simultaneously included in the same regression model. The casual/clinic blood pressure value had no significant association with the risk of subclinical cerebrovascular diseases. Although the clinical indications for ambulatory blood pressure monitoring and home blood pressure measurements may overlap, the clinical significance of each method for predicting target organ damage may differ for different target organs.

Top-down population regulation of a top predator: lions in the Ngorongoro Crater.

PubMed Central

Kissui, Bernard M.; Packer, Craig

2004-01-01

Efforts to determine whether bottom-up or top-down processes regulate populations have been hampered by difficulties in accurately estimating the population's carrying capacity and in directly measuring food intake rate, the impacts of interspecific competition and exposure to natural enemies. We report on 40 years of data on the lion population in Ngorongoro Crater, Tanzania, which showed strong evidence of density-dependent regulation at 100-120 individuals but has remained below 60 individuals for the past decade despite consistently high prey abundance. The lions enjoy a higher per capita food-intake rate and higher cub recruitment at low population density, and interspecific competition has not increased in recent years. These animals have suffered from a number of severe disease outbreaks over the past 40 years, but, whereas the population recovered exponentially from a severe epizootic in 1963, three outbreaks between 1994 and 2001 have occurred in such rapid succession that the population has been unable to return to the carrying capacity. The Crater population may have become unusually vulnerable to infectious disease in recent years owing to its close proximity to a growing human population and a history of close inbreeding. The Crater lions may therefore provide important insights into the future of many endangered populations. PMID:15315904

Deep photometry of two accreted families of globular clusters in the remote M31 halo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackey, Dougal

2013-10-01

Globular clusters {GCs} are fossil relics from which we can obtain critical insights into the merger and accretion events that underlie hierarchical galaxy assembly. As part of the major Pan-Andromeda Archaeological Survey {PAndAS} we have discovered two groups of GCs that closely trace narrow stellar debris streams in the M31 halo. These clearly represent two distinct accreted families of GCs - the only known examples apart from the few Galactic GCs arriving with the Sagittarius dwarf. We propose to obtain deep ACS imaging of 14 GCs spanning these two accreted families, allowing us to measure the constituent stellar populations, line-of-sight distance, and structural parameters of each object. We will, for the first time, quantify the typical properties of accreted GCs in the M31 halo as well as the degree of variation amongst them, and how closely they correspond to the suspected accreted GC population in the Milky Way. Combined with new radial velocity measurements for the GCs, our proposed observations will allow us to trace the 3D orbits of the two streams within the M31 halo, and thus break the main degeneracies that plague numerical models designed to probe the gravitational potential and distribution of dark mass.

Circumbinary planet formation in the Kepler-16 system. II. A toy model for in situ planet formation within a debris belt

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meschiari, Stefano, E-mail: stefano@astro.as.utexas.edu

2014-07-20

Recent simulations have shown that the formation of planets in circumbinary configurations (such as those recently discovered by Kepler) is dramatically hindered at the planetesimal accretion stage. The combined action of the binary and the protoplanetary disk acts to raise impact velocities between kilometer-sized planetesimals beyond their destruction threshold, halting planet formation within at least 10 AU from the binary. It has been proposed that a primordial population of 'large' planetesimals (100 km or more in size), as produced by turbulent concentration mechanisms, would be able to bypass this bottleneck; however, it is not clear whether these processes are viablemore » in the highly perturbed circumbinary environments. We perform two-dimensional hydrodynamical and N-body simulations to show that kilometer-sized planetesimals and collisional debris can drift and be trapped in a belt close to the central binary. Within this belt, planetesimals could initially grow by accreting debris, ultimately becoming 'indestructible' seeds that can accrete other planetesimals in situ despite the large impact speeds. We find that large, indestructible planetesimals can be formed close to the central binary within 10{sup 5} yr, therefore showing that even a primordial population of 'small' planetesimals can feasibly form a planet.« less

Cooperation in the dark: signalling and collective action in quorum-sensing bacteria.

PubMed

Brown, S P; Johnstone, R A

2001-05-07

The study of quorum-sensing bacteria has revealed a widespread mechanism of coordinating bacterial gene expression with cell density. By monitoring a constitutively produced signal molecule, individual bacteria can limit their expression of group-beneficial phenotypes to cell densities that guarantee an effective group outcome. In this paper, we attempt to move away from a commonly expressed view that these impressive feats of coordination are examples of multicellularity in prokaryotic populations. Here, we look more closely at the individual conflict underlying this cooperation, illustrating that, even under significant levels of genetic conflict, signalling and resultant cooperative behaviour can stably exist. A predictive two-trait model of signal strength and of the extent of cooperation is developed as a function of relatedness (reflecting multiplicity of infection) and basic population demographic parameters. The model predicts that the strength of quorum signalling will increase as conflict (multiplicity of infecting strains) increases, as individuals attempt to coax more cooperative contributions from their competitors, leading to a devaluation of the signal as an indicator of density. Conversely, as genetic conflict increases, the model predicts that the threshold density for cooperation will increase and the subsequent strength of group cooperation will be depressed.

3-D habitat suitability of jack mackerel Trachurus murphyi in the Southeastern Pacific, a comprehensive study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertrand, Arnaud; Habasque, Jérémie; Hattab, Tarek; Hintzen, Niels T.; Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo; Gutiérrez, Mariano; Demarcq, Hervé; Gerlotto, François

2016-08-01

South Pacific jack mackerel, Trachurus murphyi, has an ocean-scale distribution, from the South American coastline to New Zealand and Tasmania. This fish, captured by Humans since the Holocene, is nowadays heavily exploited and its population has decreased substantially since the mid-1990s. The uncertainty associated to jack mackerel population structure currently hampers management. Several hypotheses have been proposed from a single population up to several discrete populations. Still no definitive answer was given. Determining how environmental conditions drive jack mackerel distribution can provide insights on its population structure. To do so, here we performed in three steps. First, we used satellite data to develop a statistical model of jack mackerel horizontal habitat suitability. Model predictions based on interaction between temperature and chlorophyll-a match the observed jack mackerel distribution, even during extreme El Niño event. Second, we studied the impact of oxygen and show that jack mackerel distribution and abundance is correlated to oxygen over a wide variety of scales and avoid low oxygen areas and periods. Third, on the basis of the above we built a conceptual 3D model of jack mackerel habitat in the Southeastern Pacific. We reveal the presence of a low suitable habitat along the Chilean and Peruvian coast, figuratively presenting a closed door caused by a gap in the horizontal habitat at ∼19-22°S and a shallow oxycline off south-centre Peru. This kind of situation likely occurs on a seasonal basis, in austral summer but also at longer temporal scales. A lack of exchanges at some periods/seasons partially isolate jack mackerel distributed off Peru. On the other hand the continuity in the habitat during most of the year explains why exchanges occur. We conclude that the more likely population structure for jack mackerel is a pelagic metapopulation.

Social contact networks and disease eradicability under voluntary vaccination.

PubMed

Perisic, Ana; Bauch, Chris T

2009-02-01

Certain theories suggest that it should be difficult or impossible to eradicate a vaccine-preventable disease under voluntary vaccination: Herd immunity implies that the individual incentive to vaccinate disappears at high coverage levels. Historically, there have been examples of declining coverage for vaccines, such as MMR vaccine and whole-cell pertussis vaccine, that are consistent with this theory. On the other hand, smallpox was globally eradicated by 1980 despite voluntary vaccination policies in many jurisdictions. Previous modeling studies of the interplay between disease dynamics and individual vaccinating behavior have assumed that infection is transmitted in a homogeneously mixing population. By comparison, here we simulate transmission of a vaccine-preventable SEIR infection through a random, static contact network. Individuals choose whether to vaccinate based on infection risks from neighbors, and based on vaccine risks. When neighborhood size is small, rational vaccinating behavior results in rapid containment of the infection through voluntary ring vaccination. As neighborhood size increases (while the average force of infection is held constant), a threshold is reached beyond which the infection can break through partially vaccinated rings, percolating through the whole population and resulting in considerable epidemic final sizes and a large number vaccinated. The former outcome represents convergence between individually and socially optimal outcomes, whereas the latter represents their divergence, as observed in most models of individual vaccinating behavior that assume homogeneous mixing. Similar effects are observed in an extended model using smallpox-specific natural history and transmissibility assumptions. This work illustrates the significant qualitative differences between behavior-infection dynamics in discrete contact-structured populations versus continuous unstructured populations. This work also shows how disease eradicability in populations where voluntary vaccination is the primary control mechanism may depend partly on whether the disease is transmissible only to a few close social contacts or to a larger subset of the population.

Pesticide tolerance in amphibians: induced tolerance in susceptible populations, constitutive tolerance in tolerant populations

PubMed Central

Hua, Jessica; Morehouse, Nathan I; Relyea, Rick

2013-01-01

The role of plasticity in shaping adaptations is important to understanding the expression of traits within individuals and the evolution of populations. With increasing human impacts on the environment, one challenge is to consider how plasticity shapes responses to anthropogenic stressors such as contaminants. To our knowledge, only one study (using mosquitoes) has considered the possibility of induced insecticide tolerance. Using populations of wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) located close to and far from agricultural fields, we discovered that exposing some populations of embryos and hatchlings to sublethal concentrations of the insecticide carbaryl induced higher tolerance to a subsequent lethal concentration later in life. Interestingly, the inducible populations were located >800 m from agricultural areas and were the most susceptible to the insecticide. In contrast, the noninducible populations were located close to agricultural areas and were the least susceptible. We also found that sublethal concentrations of carbaryl induced higher tadpole AChE concentrations in several cases. This is the first study to demonstrate inducible tolerance in a vertebrate species and the pattern of inducible and constitutive tolerance among populations suggests the process of genetic assimilation. PMID:24187585

A goodness-of-fit test for capture-recapture model M(t) under closure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.; Burnham, K.P.

1999-01-01

A new, fully efficient goodness-of-fit test for the time-specific closed-population capture-recapture model M(t) is presented. This test is based on the residual distribution of the capture history data given the maximum likelihood parameter estimates under model M(t), is partitioned into informative components, and is based on chi-square statistics. Comparison of this test with Leslie's test (Leslie, 1958, Journal of Animal Ecology 27, 84- 86) for model M(t), using Monte Carlo simulations, shows the new test generally outperforms Leslie's test. The new test is frequently computable when Leslie's test is not, has Type I error rates that are closer to nominal error rates than Leslie's test, and is sensitive to behavioral variation and heterogeneity in capture probabilities. Leslie's test is not sensitive to behavioral variation in capture probabilities but, when computable, has greater power to detect heterogeneity than the new test.

Wild populations of Triatoma infestans: Compilation of positive sites and comparison of their ecological niche with domestic population niche.

PubMed

Brenière, Simone Frédérique; Buitrago, Rosio; Waleckx, Etienne; Depickère, Stéphanie; Sosa, Victor; Barnabé, Christian; Gorla, David

2017-12-01

For several years, the wild populations of Triatoma infestans, main vector of Trypanosoma cruzi causing Chagas disease, have been considered or suspected of being a source of reinfestation of villages. The number of sites reported for the presence of wild T. infestans, often close to human habitats, has greatly increased, but these data are scattered in several publications, and others obtained by our team in Bolivia have not been published yet. Herein is compiled the largest number of wild sites explored for the presence of T. infestans collected with two methods The standardized methods aimed to determine the relationship between wild T. infestans and the ecoregion, and the directed method help to confirm the presence/absence of triatomines in the ecoregions. Entomological indices were compared between ecoregions and an environmental niche modelling approach, based on bioclimatic variables, was applied. The active search for wild T. infestans in Bolivia suggests a discontinuous distribution from the Andean valleys to the lowlands (Chaco), while the models used suggest a continuous distribution between the two regions and very large areas where wild populations remain to be discovered. The results compile the description of different habitats where these populations were found, and we demonstrate that the environmental niches of wild and domestic populations, defined by climatic variables, are similar but not equivalent, showing that during domestication, T. infestans has conquered new spaces with wider ranges of temperature and precipitation. The great diversity of wild T. infestans habitats and the comparison of their ecological niches with that of domestic populations confirm the behavioural plasticity of the species that increase the possibility of contact with humans. The result of the geographical distribution model of the wild populations calls for more entomological vigilance in the corresponding areas in the Southern Cone countries and in Bolivia. The current presentation is the most comprehensive inventory of wild T. infestans-positive sites that can be used as a reference for further entomological vigilance in inhabited areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

One-dimensional time-dependent fluid model of a very high density low-pressure inductively coupled plasma

DOE PAGES

Chaplin, Vernon H.; Bellan, Paul M.

2015-12-28

A time-dependent two-fluid model has been developed to understand axial variations in the plasma parameters in a very high density (peak n e~ > 5x10 19 m –3) argon inductively coupled discharge in a long 1.1 cm radius tube. The model equations are written in 1D, with radial losses to the tube walls accounted for by the inclusion of effective particle and energy sink terms. The ambipolar diffusion equation and electron energy equation are solved to find the electron density n e(z,t) and temperature T e(z,t), and the populations of the neutral argon 4s metastable, 4s resonant, and 4p excitedmore » state manifolds are calculated in order to determine the stepwise ionization rate and calculate radiative energy losses. The model has been validated through comparisons with Langmuir probe ion saturation current measurements; close agreement between the simulated and measured axial plasma density profiles and the initial density rise rate at each location was obtained at p Ar = 30-60 mTorr. Lastly, we present detailed results from calculations at 60 mTorr, including the time-dependent electron temperature, excited state populations, and energy budget within and downstream of the radiofrequency (RF) antenna.« less

The Evolution of Latent Genes in Subdivided Populations

PubMed Central

Moody, M. E.; Basten, C. J.

1990-01-01

We define latent genes as phenotypically silent DNA sequences which may be reactivated by various genetic mechanisms. Of interest is how they and their functional counterparts can be maintained at high frequency in the face of mutation and selection pressure. We propose a two-deme, three-allele model incorporating viability selection, mutation and migration in haploid populations. It is shown that polymorphism for the three alleles can be easily maintained for a wide range of biologically meaningful parameter values. Computer simulations were employed to gain qualitative insight into the global dynamics of the system. It was found that the dynamics of the latent allele is closely correlated with that of the functional allele. In addition, bias in the migration rates can strengthen or weaken selective conditions for preservation of the functional and latent alleles. PMID:2307354

Detection of nanoparticles in carbon arc discharge with laser-induced incandescence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yatom, S.; Bak, J.; Khrabryi, A.

Laser-induced incandescence measurements were conducted in the carbon arc discharge, used for synthesis of carbon nanostructures. The results reveal two spatial regions occupied by dominant populations of carbon particles with different sizes. Close to the axis of the arc, large micron size particles dominate the incandescence signal. In the arc periphery, the dominant population of nanoparticles has diameter of 20 nm. Using a heat transfer model between the gas, arc plasma and the particles, it is shown that such a drastic difference in the particle sizes can be explained by evaporation of the micron-scale particles which move across the arcmore » plasma towards the arc periphery. It is also hypothesized that mass evaporated from the micro particles contributes to the carbon feedstock for the formation of nanostructures. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.« less

Detection of nanoparticles in carbon arc discharge with laser-induced incandescence

DOE PAGES

Yatom, S.; Bak, J.; Khrabryi, A.; ...

2017-02-20

Laser-induced incandescence measurements were conducted in the carbon arc discharge, used for synthesis of carbon nanostructures. The results reveal two spatial regions occupied by dominant populations of carbon particles with different sizes. Close to the axis of the arc, large micron size particles dominate the incandescence signal. In the arc periphery, the dominant population of nanoparticles has diameter of 20 nm. Using a heat transfer model between the gas, arc plasma and the particles, it is shown that such a drastic difference in the particle sizes can be explained by evaporation of the micron-scale particles which move across the arcmore » plasma towards the arc periphery. It is also hypothesized that mass evaporated from the micro particles contributes to the carbon feedstock for the formation of nanostructures. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.« less