Large-Scale Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trossman, D. S.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

2016-01-01

Changes to the large scale oceanic circulation are thought to slow the pace of transient climate change due, in part, to their influence on radiative feedbacks. Here we evaluate the interactions between CO2-forced perturbations to the large-scale ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback in a climate model. Both the change of the ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback strongly influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of surface and ocean warming. Changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback by helping to maintain low cloud coverage in the face of global warming. The radiative cloud feedback is key in affecting atmospheric meridional heat transport changes and is the dominant radiative feedback mechanism that responds to ocean circulation change. Uncertainty in the simulated ocean circulation changes due to CO2 forcing may contribute a large share of the spread in the radiative cloud feedback among climate models.

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Mark J.; Andrews, Timothy; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; Bony, Sandrine; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Chadwick, Robin; Chepfer, Hélène; Douville, Hervé; Good, Peter; Kay, Jennifer E.; Klein, Stephen A.; Marchand, Roger; Medeiros, Brian; Pier Siebesma, A.; Skinner, Christopher B.; Stevens, Bjorn; Tselioudis, George; Tsushima, Yoko; Watanabe, Masahiro

2017-01-01

The primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud-climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. However, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions How does the Earth system respond to forcing? and What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity.A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and their uncertainties in coupled models arise from the combination of different aspects of CO2 forcing and sea surface warming?CFMIP also proposes a number of additional model outputs in the CMIP DECK, CMIP6 Historical and CMIP6 CFMIP experiments, including COSP simulator outputs and process diagnostics to address the following questions.

1. How well do clouds and other relevant variables simulated by models agree with observations?

2. What physical processes and mechanisms are important for a credible simulation of clouds, cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments in climate models?

3. Which models have the most credible representations of processes relevant to the simulation of clouds?

4. How do clouds and their changes interact with other elements of the climate system?

Cloud Feedbacks in the Climate System: A Critical Review.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, Graeme L.

2005-01-01

This paper offers a critical review of the topic of cloud-climate feedbacks and exposes some of the underlying reasons for the inherent lack of understanding of these feedbacks and why progress might be expected on this important climate problem in the coming decade. Although many processes and related parameters come under the influence of clouds, it is argued that atmospheric processes fundamentally govern the cloud feedbacks via the relationship between the atmospheric circulations, cloudiness, and the radiative and latent heating of the atmosphere. It is also shown how perturbations to the atmospheric radiation budget that are induced by cloud changes in response to climate forcing dictate the eventual response of the global-mean hydrological cycle of the climate model to climate forcing. This suggests that cloud feedbacks are likely to control the bulk precipitation efficiency and associated responses of the planet's hydrological cycle to climate radiative forcings.The paper provides a brief overview of the effects of clouds on the radiation budget of the earth-atmosphere system and a review of cloud feedbacks as they have been defined in simple systems, one being a system in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) and others relating to simple feedback ideas that regulate tropical SSTs. The systems perspective is reviewed as it has served as the basis for most feedback analyses. What emerges is the importance of being clear about the definition of the system. It is shown how different assumptions about the system produce very different conclusions about the magnitude and sign of feedbacks. Much more diligence is called for in terms of defining the system and justifying assumptions. In principle, there is also neither any theoretical basis to justify the system that defines feedbacks in terms of global-time-mean changes in surface temperature nor is there any compelling empirical evidence to do so. The lack of maturity of feedback analysis methods also suggests that progress in understanding climate feedback will require development of alternative methods of analysis.It has been argued that, in view of the complex nature of the climate system, and the cumbersome problems encountered in diagnosing feedbacks, understanding cloud feedback will be gleaned neither from observations nor proved from simple theoretical argument alone. The blueprint for progress must follow a more arduous path that requires a carefully orchestrated and systematic combination of model and observations. Models provide the tool for diagnosing processes and quantifying feedbacks while observations provide the essential test of the model's credibility in representing these processes. While GCM climate and NWP models represent the most complete description of all the interactions between the processes that presumably establish the main cloud feedbacks, the weak link in the use of these models lies in the cloud parameterization imbedded in them. Aspects of these parameterizations remain worrisome, containing levels of empiricism and assumptions that are hard to evaluate with current global observations. Clearly observationally based methods for evaluating cloud parameterizations are an important element in the road map to progress.Although progress in understanding the cloud feedback problem has been slow and confused by past analysis, there are legitimate reasons outlined in the paper that give hope for real progress in the future.

Incorporation of surface albedo-temperature feedback in a one-dimensional radiative-connective climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, W. C.; Stone, P. H.

1979-01-01

The feedback between ice snow albedo and temperature is included in a one dimensional radiative convective climate model. The effect of this feedback on sensitivity to changes in solar constant is studied for the current values of the solar constant and cloud characteristics. The ice snow albedo feedback amplifies global climate sensitivity by 33% and 50%, respectively, for assumptions of constant cloud altitude and constant cloud temperature.

Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models

DOE PAGES

Ceppi, Paulo; Brient, Florent; Zelinka, Mark D.; ...

2017-05-11

Cloud feedback—the change in top-of-atmosphere radiative flux resulting from the cloud response to warming—constitutes by far the largest source of uncertainty in the climate response to CO 2 forcing simulated by global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we review the main mechanisms for cloud feedbacks, and discuss their representation in climate models and the sources of intermodel spread. Global-mean cloud feedback in GCMs results from three main effects: (1) rising free-tropospheric clouds (a positive longwave effect); (2) decreasing tropical low cloud amount (a positive shortwave [SW] effect); (3) increasing high-latitude low cloud optical depth (a negative SW effect). Thesemore » cloud responses simulated by GCMs are qualitatively supported by theory, high-resolution modeling, and observations. Rising high clouds are consistent with the fixed anvil temperature (FAT) hypothesis, whereby enhanced upper-tropospheric radiative cooling causes anvil cloud tops to remain at a nearly fixed temperature as the atmosphere warms. Tropical low cloud amount decreases are driven by a delicate balance between the effects of vertical turbulent fluxes, radiative cooling, large-scale subsidence, and lower-tropospheric stability on the boundary-layer moisture budget. High-latitude low cloud optical depth increases are dominated by phase changes in mixed-phase clouds. Finally, the causes of intermodel spread in cloud feedback are discussed, focusing particularly on the role of unresolved parameterized processes such as cloud microphysics, turbulence, and convection.« less

Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ceppi, Paulo; Brient, Florent; Zelinka, Mark D.

Cloud feedback—the change in top-of-atmosphere radiative flux resulting from the cloud response to warming—constitutes by far the largest source of uncertainty in the climate response to CO 2 forcing simulated by global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we review the main mechanisms for cloud feedbacks, and discuss their representation in climate models and the sources of intermodel spread. Global-mean cloud feedback in GCMs results from three main effects: (1) rising free-tropospheric clouds (a positive longwave effect); (2) decreasing tropical low cloud amount (a positive shortwave [SW] effect); (3) increasing high-latitude low cloud optical depth (a negative SW effect). Thesemore » cloud responses simulated by GCMs are qualitatively supported by theory, high-resolution modeling, and observations. Rising high clouds are consistent with the fixed anvil temperature (FAT) hypothesis, whereby enhanced upper-tropospheric radiative cooling causes anvil cloud tops to remain at a nearly fixed temperature as the atmosphere warms. Tropical low cloud amount decreases are driven by a delicate balance between the effects of vertical turbulent fluxes, radiative cooling, large-scale subsidence, and lower-tropospheric stability on the boundary-layer moisture budget. High-latitude low cloud optical depth increases are dominated by phase changes in mixed-phase clouds. Finally, the causes of intermodel spread in cloud feedback are discussed, focusing particularly on the role of unresolved parameterized processes such as cloud microphysics, turbulence, and convection.« less

CO2 forcing induces semi-direct effects with consequences for climate feedback interpretations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, Timothy; Forster, Piers M.

2008-02-01

Climate forcing and feedbacks are diagnosed from seven slab-ocean GCMs for 2 × CO2 using a regression method. Results are compared to those using conventional methodologies to derive a semi-direct forcing due to tropospheric adjustment, analogous to the semi-direct effect of absorbing aerosols. All models show a cloud semi-direct effect, indicating a rapid cloud response to CO2; cloud typically decreases, enhancing the warming. Similarly there is evidence of semi-direct effects from water-vapour, lapse-rate, ice and snow. Previous estimates of climate feedbacks are unlikely to have taken these semi-direct effects into account and so misinterpret processes as feedbacks that depend only on the forcing, but not the global surface temperature. We show that the actual cloud feedback is smaller than what previous methods suggest and that a significant part of the cloud response and the large spread between previous model estimates of cloud feedback is due to the semi-direct forcing.

Gregarious Convection and Radiative Feedbacks in Idealized Worlds

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-29

exist neither on the globe nor within the cloud model. Since mesoscales impose great computational costs on atmosphere models, as well as inconven...Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA Abstract What role does convection play in cloud feedbacks? What role does convective... cloud fields depends systematically on global temperature, then convective organization could be a climate system feedback. How reconcilable and how

Effect of ice-albedo feedback on global sensitivity in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, W.-C.; Stone, P. H.

1980-01-01

The feedback between the ice albedo and temperature is included in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model. The effect of this feedback on global sensitivity to changes in solar constant is studied for the current climate conditions. This ice-albedo feedback amplifies global sensitivity by 26 and 39%, respectively, for assumptions of fixed cloud altitude and fixed cloud temperature. The global sensitivity is not affected significantly if the latitudinal variations of mean solar zenith angle and cloud cover are included in the global model. The differences in global sensitivity between one-dimensional radiative-convective models and energy balance models are examined. It is shown that the models are in close agreement when the same feedback mechanisms are included. The one-dimensional radiative-convective model with ice-albedo feedback included is used to compute the equilibrium ice line as a function of solar constant.

Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trossman, D.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

2016-12-01

We argue that a substantial fraction of the uncertainty in the cloud radiative feedback during transient climate change may be due to uncertainty in the ocean circulation perturbation. A suite of climate model simulations in which the ocean circulation, the cloud radiative feedback, or a combination of both are held fixed while CO2 doubles, shows that changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback. Specifically, a slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) helps to maintain low cloud cover in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. We propose that the AMOC decline increases the meridional SST gradient, strengthening the storm track, its attendant clouds and the amount of shortwave radiation they reflect back to space. If the results of our model were to scale proportionately in the CMIP5 models, whose AMOC decline ranges from 15 to 60% under RCP8.5, then as much as 70% of the intermodel spread in the cloud radiative feedback and 35% of the spread in the transient climate response could possibly stem from the model representations of AMOC decline.

Constraining the low-cloud optical depth feedback at middle and high latitudes using satellite observations

DOE PAGES

Terai, C. R.; Klein, S. A.; Zelinka, M. D.

2016-08-26

The increase in cloud optical depth with warming at middle and high latitudes is a robust cloud feedback response found across all climate models. This study builds on results that suggest the optical depth response to temperature is timescale invariant for low-level clouds. The timescale invariance allows one to use satellite observations to constrain the models' optical depth feedbacks. Three passive-sensor satellite retrievals are compared against simulations from eight models from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This study confirms that the low-cloud optical depth response is timescale invariant in the AMIPmore » simulations, generally at latitudes higher than 40°. Compared to satellite estimates, most models overestimate the increase in optical depth with warming at the monthly and interannual timescales. Many models also do not capture the increase in optical depth with estimated inversion strength that is found in all three satellite observations and in previous studies. The discrepancy between models and satellites exists in both hemispheres and in most months of the year. A simple replacement of the models' optical depth sensitivities with the satellites' sensitivities reduces the negative shortwave cloud feedback by at least 50% in the 40°–70°S latitude band and by at least 65% in the 40°–70°N latitude band. Furthermore, based on this analysis of satellite observations, we conclude that the low-cloud optical depth feedback at middle and high latitudes is likely too negative in climate models.« less

Constraining the low-cloud optical depth feedback at middle and high latitudes using satellite observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Terai, C. R.; Klein, S. A.; Zelinka, M. D.

The increase in cloud optical depth with warming at middle and high latitudes is a robust cloud feedback response found across all climate models. This study builds on results that suggest the optical depth response to temperature is timescale invariant for low-level clouds. The timescale invariance allows one to use satellite observations to constrain the models' optical depth feedbacks. Three passive-sensor satellite retrievals are compared against simulations from eight models from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This study confirms that the low-cloud optical depth response is timescale invariant in the AMIPmore » simulations, generally at latitudes higher than 40°. Compared to satellite estimates, most models overestimate the increase in optical depth with warming at the monthly and interannual timescales. Many models also do not capture the increase in optical depth with estimated inversion strength that is found in all three satellite observations and in previous studies. The discrepancy between models and satellites exists in both hemispheres and in most months of the year. A simple replacement of the models' optical depth sensitivities with the satellites' sensitivities reduces the negative shortwave cloud feedback by at least 50% in the 40°–70°S latitude band and by at least 65% in the 40°–70°N latitude band. Furthermore, based on this analysis of satellite observations, we conclude that the low-cloud optical depth feedback at middle and high latitudes is likely too negative in climate models.« less

An energy balance climate model with cloud feedbacks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roads, J. O.; Vallis, G. K.

1984-01-01

The present two-level global climate model, which is based on the atmosphere-surface energy balance, includes physically based parameterizations for the exchange of heat and moisture across latitude belts and between the surface and the atmosphere, precipitation and cloud formation, and solar and IR radiation. The model field predictions obtained encompass surface and atmospheric temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and cloudiness. In the model integrations presented, it is noted that cloudiness is generally constant with changing temperature at low latitudes. High altitude cloudiness increases with temperature, although the cloud feedback effect on the radiation field remains small because of compensating effects on thermal and solar radiation. The net global feedback by the cloud field is negative, but small.

Positive tropical marine low-cloud cover feedback inferred from cloud-controlling factors

DOE PAGES

Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex; Klein, Stephen A.; ...

2015-09-28

Differences in simulations of tropical marine low-cloud cover (LCC) feedback are sources of significant spread in temperature responses of climate models to anthropogenic forcing. Here we show that in models the feedback is mainly driven by three large-scale changes—a strengthening tropical inversion, increasing surface latent heat flux, and an increasing vertical moisture gradient. Variations in the LCC response to these changes alone account for most of the spread in model-projected 21st century LCC changes. A methodology is devised to constrain the LCC response observationally using sea surface temperature (SST) as a surrogate for the latent heat flux and moisture gradient.more » In models where the current climate's LCC sensitivities to inversion strength and SST variations are consistent with observed, LCC decreases systematically, which would increase absorption of solar radiation. These results support a positive LCC feedback. Finally, correcting biases in the sensitivities will be an important step toward more credible simulation of cloud feedbacks.« less

Which way will the circulation shift in a changing climate? Possible nonlinearity of extratropical cloud feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tandon, Neil F.; Cane, Mark A.

2017-06-01

In a suite of idealized experiments with the Community Atmospheric Model version 3 coupled to a slab ocean, we show that the atmospheric circulation response to CO2 increase is sensitive to extratropical cloud feedback that is potentially nonlinear. Doubling CO2 produces a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude jet that is driven primarily by cloud shortwave feedback and modulated by ice albedo feedback, in agreement with earlier studies. More surprisingly, for CO2 increases smaller than 25 %, the SH jet shifts equatorward. Nonlinearities are also apparent in the Northern Hemisphere, but with less zonal symmetry. Baroclinic instability theory and climate feedback analysis suggest that as the CO2 forcing amplitude is reduced, there is a transition from a regime in which cloud and circulation changes are largely decoupled to a regime in which they are highly coupled. In the dynamically coupled regime, there is an apparent cancellation between cloud feedback due to warming and cloud feedback due to the shifting jet, and this allows the ice albedo feedback to dominate in the high latitudes. The extent to which dynamical coupling effects exceed thermodynamic forcing effects is strongly influenced by cloud microphysics: an alternate model configuration with slightly increased cloud liquid (LIQ) produces poleward jet shifts regardless of the amplitude of CO2 forcing. Altering the cloud microphysics also produces substantial spread in the circulation response to CO2 doubling: the LIQ configuration produces a poleward SH jet shift approximately twice that produced under the default configuration. Analysis of large ensembles of the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 demonstrates that nonlinear, cloud-coupled jet shifts are also possible in comprehensive models. We still expect a poleward trend in SH jet latitude for timescales on which CO2 increases by more than 25 %. But on shorter timescales, our results give good reason to expect significant equatorward deviations. We also discuss the implications for understanding the circulation response to small external forcings from other sources, such as the solar cycle.

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-10-31

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth's energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-12-01

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. Here we present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. We find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth's energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback between the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. These results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and offer a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.

The highs and lows of cloud radiative feedback: Comparing observational data and CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenney, A.; Randall, D. A.

2014-12-01

Clouds play a complex role in the climate system, and remain one of the more difficult aspects of the future climate to predict. Over subtropical eastern ocean basins, particularly next to California, Peru, and Southwest Africa, low marine stratocumulus clouds (MSC) help to reduce the amount of solar radiation that reaches the surface by reflecting incident sunlight. The climate feedback associated with these clouds is thought to be positive. This project looks at CMIP5 models and compares them to observational data from CERES and ERA-Interim to try and find observational evidence and model agreement for low, marine stratocumulus cloud feedback. Although current evidence suggests that the low cloud feedback is positive (IPCC, 2014), an analysis of the simulated relationship between July lower tropospheric stability (LTS) and shortwave cloud forcing in MSC regions suggests that this feedback is not due to changes in LTS. IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.

Star cluster formation in a turbulent molecular cloud self-regulated by photoionization feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavagnin, Elena; Bleuler, Andreas; Rosdahl, Joakim; Teyssier, Romain

2017-12-01

Most stars in the Galaxy are believed to be formed within star clusters from collapsing molecular clouds. However, the complete process of star formation, from the parent cloud to a gas-free star cluster, is still poorly understood. We perform radiation-hydrodynamical simulations of the collapse of a turbulent molecular cloud using the RAMSES-RT code. Stars are modelled using sink particles, from which we self-consistently follow the propagation of the ionizing radiation. We study how different feedback models affect the gas expulsion from the cloud and how they shape the final properties of the emerging star cluster. We find that the star formation efficiency is lower for stronger feedback models. Feedback also changes the high-mass end of the stellar mass function. Stronger feedback also allows the establishment of a lower density star cluster, which can maintain a virial or sub-virial state. In the absence of feedback, the star formation efficiency is very high, as well as the final stellar density. As a result, high-energy close encounters make the cluster evaporate quickly. Other indicators, such as mass segregation, statistics of multiple systems and escaping stars confirm this picture. Observations of young star clusters are in best agreement with our strong feedback simulation.

Introducing Subrid-scale Cloud Feedbacks to Radiation for Regional Meteorological and Cllimate Modeling

EPA Science Inventory

Convection systems and associated cloudiness directly influence regional and local radiation budgets, and dynamics and thermodynamics through feedbacks. However, most subgrid-scale convective parameterizations in regional weather and climate models do not consider cumulus cloud ...

Observations of Local Positive Low Cloud Feedback Patterns and Their Role in Internal Variability and Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven E.; Meyer, Kerry

2018-05-01

Modeling studies have shown that cloud feedbacks are sensitive to the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while cloud feedbacks themselves strongly influence the magnitude of SST anomalies. Observational counterparts to such patterned interactions are still needed. Here we show that distinct large-scale patterns of SST and low-cloud cover (LCC) emerge naturally from objective analyses of observations and demonstrate their close coupling in a positive local SST-LCC feedback loop that may be important for both internal variability and climate change. The two patterns that explain the maximum amount of covariance between SST and LCC correspond to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, leading modes of multidecadal internal variability. Spatial patterns and time series of SST and LCC anomalies associated with both modes point to a strong positive local SST-LCC feedback. In many current climate models, our analyses suggest that SST-LCC feedback strength is too weak compared to observations. Modeled local SST-LCC feedback strength affects simulated internal variability so that stronger feedback produces more intense and more realistic patterns of internal variability. To the extent that the physics of the local positive SST-LCC feedback inferred from observed climate variability applies to future greenhouse warming, we anticipate significant amount of delayed warming because of SST-LCC feedback when anthropogenic SST warming eventually overwhelm the effects of internal variability that may mute anthropogenic warming over parts of the ocean. We postulate that many climate models may be underestimating both future warming and the magnitude of modeled internal variability because of their weak SST-LCC feedback.

Low Cloud Feedback to Surface Warming in the World's First Global Climate Model with Explicit Embedded Boundary Layer Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parishani, H.; Pritchard, M. S.; Bretherton, C. S.; Wyant, M. C.; Khairoutdinov, M.; Singh, B.

2017-12-01

Biases and parameterization formulation uncertainties in the representation of boundary layer clouds remain a leading source of possible systematic error in climate projections. Here we show the first results of cloud feedback to +4K SST warming in a new experimental climate model, the ``Ultra-Parameterized (UP)'' Community Atmosphere Model, UPCAM. We have developed UPCAM as an unusually high-resolution implementation of cloud superparameterization (SP) in which a global set of cloud resolving arrays is embedded in a host global climate model. In UP, the cloud-resolving scale includes sufficient internal resolution to explicitly generate the turbulent eddies that form marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus clouds. This is computationally costly but complements other available approaches for studying low clouds and their climate interaction, by avoiding parameterization of the relevant scales. In a recent publication we have shown that UP, while not without its own complexity trade-offs, can produce encouraging improvements in low cloud climatology in multi-month simulations of the present climate and is a promising target for exascale computing (Parishani et al. 2017). Here we show results of its low cloud feedback to warming in multi-year simulations for the first time. References: Parishani, H., M. S. Pritchard, C. S. Bretherton, M. C. Wyant, and M. Khairoutdinov (2017), Toward low-cloud-permitting cloud superparameterization with explicit boundary layer turbulence, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9, doi:10.1002/2017MS000968.

Coupling between lower-tropospheric convective mixing and low-level clouds: Physical mechanisms and dependence on convection scheme.

PubMed

Vial, Jessica; Bony, Sandrine; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Roehrig, Romain

2016-12-01

Several studies have pointed out the dependence of low-cloud feedbacks on the strength of the lower-tropospheric convective mixing. By analyzing a series of single-column model experiments run by a climate model using two different convective parametrizations, this study elucidates the physical mechanisms through which marine boundary-layer clouds depend on this mixing in the present-day climate and under surface warming. An increased lower-tropospheric convective mixing leads to a reduction of low-cloud fraction. However, the rate of decrease strongly depends on how the surface latent heat flux couples to the convective mixing and to boundary-layer cloud radiative effects: (i) on the one hand, the latent heat flux is enhanced by the lower-tropospheric drying induced by the convective mixing, which damps the reduction of the low-cloud fraction, (ii) on the other hand, the latent heat flux is reduced as the lower troposphere stabilizes under the effect of reduced low-cloud radiative cooling, which enhances the reduction of the low-cloud fraction. The relative importance of these two different processes depends on the closure of the convective parameterization. The convective scheme that favors the coupling between latent heat flux and low-cloud radiative cooling exhibits a stronger sensitivity of low-clouds to convective mixing in the present-day climate, and a stronger low-cloud feedback in response to surface warming. In this model, the low-cloud feedback is stronger when the present-day convective mixing is weaker and when present-day clouds are shallower and more radiatively active. The implications of these insights for constraining the strength of low-cloud feedbacks observationally is discussed.

Coupling between lower‐tropospheric convective mixing and low‐level clouds: Physical mechanisms and dependence on convection scheme

PubMed Central

Bony, Sandrine; Dufresne, Jean‐Louis; Roehrig, Romain

2016-01-01

Abstract Several studies have pointed out the dependence of low‐cloud feedbacks on the strength of the lower‐tropospheric convective mixing. By analyzing a series of single‐column model experiments run by a climate model using two different convective parametrizations, this study elucidates the physical mechanisms through which marine boundary‐layer clouds depend on this mixing in the present‐day climate and under surface warming. An increased lower‐tropospheric convective mixing leads to a reduction of low‐cloud fraction. However, the rate of decrease strongly depends on how the surface latent heat flux couples to the convective mixing and to boundary‐layer cloud radiative effects: (i) on the one hand, the latent heat flux is enhanced by the lower‐tropospheric drying induced by the convective mixing, which damps the reduction of the low‐cloud fraction, (ii) on the other hand, the latent heat flux is reduced as the lower troposphere stabilizes under the effect of reduced low‐cloud radiative cooling, which enhances the reduction of the low‐cloud fraction. The relative importance of these two different processes depends on the closure of the convective parameterization. The convective scheme that favors the coupling between latent heat flux and low‐cloud radiative cooling exhibits a stronger sensitivity of low‐clouds to convective mixing in the present‐day climate, and a stronger low‐cloud feedback in response to surface warming. In this model, the low‐cloud feedback is stronger when the present‐day convective mixing is weaker and when present‐day clouds are shallower and more radiatively active. The implications of these insights for constraining the strength of low‐cloud feedbacks observationally is discussed. PMID:28239438

Positive Low Cloud and Dust Feedbacks Amplify Tropical North Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yuan, Tianle; Oraiopoulos, Lazaros; Zelinka, Mark; Yu, Hongbin; Norris, Joel R.; Chin, Mian; Platnick, Steven; Meyer, Kerry

2016-01-01

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is characterized by a horseshoe pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and has a wide range of climatic impacts. While the tropical arm of AMO is responsible for many of these impacts, it is either too weak or completely absent in many climate model simulations. Here we show, using both observational and model evidence, that the radiative effect of positive low cloud and dust feedbacks is strong enough to generate the tropical arm of AMO, with the low cloud feedback more dominant. The feedbacks can be understood in a consistent dynamical framework: weakened tropical trade wind speed in response to a warm middle latitude SST anomaly reduces dust loading and low cloud fraction over the tropical Atlantic, which warms the tropical North Atlantic SST. Together they contribute to appearance of the tropical arm of AMO. Most current climate models miss both the critical wind speed response and two positive feedbacks though realistic simulations of them may be essential for many climatic studies related to the AMO.

Positive low cloud and dust feedbacks amplify tropical North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

DOE PAGES

Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Zelinka, Mark; ...

2016-02-04

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is characterized by a horseshoe pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and has a wide range of climatic impacts. While the tropical arm of AMO is responsible for many of these impacts, it is either too weak or completely absent in many climate model simulations. Here we show, using both observational and model evidence, that the radiative effect of positive low cloud and dust feedbacks is strong enough to generate the tropical arm of AMO, with the low cloud feedback more dominant. The feedbacks can be understood in a consistent dynamical framework: weakened tropicalmore » trade wind speed in response to a warm middle latitude SST anomaly reduces dust loading and low cloud fraction over the tropical Atlantic, which warms the tropical North Atlantic SST. Together they contribute to the appearance of the tropical arm of AMO. Most current climate models miss both the critical wind speed response and two positive feedbacks though realistic simulations of them may be essential for many climatic studies related to the AMO.« less

Lidar Penetration Depth Observations for Constraining Cloud Longwave Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaillant de Guelis, T.; Chepfer, H.; Noel, V.; Guzman, R.; Winker, D. M.; Kay, J. E.; Bonazzola, M.

2017-12-01

Satellite-borne active remote sensing Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations [CALIPSO; Winker et al., 2010] and CloudSat [Stephens et al., 2002] provide direct measurements of the cloud vertical distribution, with a very high vertical resolution. The penetration depth of the laser of the lidar Z_Opaque is directly linked to the LongWave (LW) Cloud Radiative Effect (CRE) at Top Of Atmosphere (TOA) [Vaillant de Guélis et al., in review]. In addition, this measurement is extremely stable in time making it an excellent observational candidate to verify and constrain the cloud LW feedback mechanism [Chepfer et al., 2014]. In this work, we present a method to decompose the variations of the LW CRE at TOA using cloud properties observed by lidar [GOCCP v3.0; Guzman et al., 2017]. We decompose these variations into contributions due to changes in five cloud properties: opaque cloud cover, opaque cloud altitude, thin cloud cover, thin cloud altitude, and thin cloud emissivity [Vaillant de Guélis et al., in review]. We apply this method, in the real world, to the CRE variations of CALIPSO 2008-2015 record, and, in climate model, to LMDZ6 and CESM simulations of the CRE variations of 2008-2015 period and of the CRE difference between a warm climate and the current climate. In climate model simulations, the same cloud properties as those observed by CALIOP are extracted from the CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP) [Bodas-Salcedo et al., 2011] lidar simulator [Chepfer et al., 2008], which mimics the observations that would be performed by the lidar on board CALIPSO satellite. This method, when applied on multi-model simulations of current and future climate, could reveal the altitude of cloud opacity level observed by lidar as a strong constrain for cloud LW feedback, since the altitude feedback mechanism is physically explainable and the altitude of cloud opacity accurately observed by lidar.

Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Feedbacks in the CESM1 Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, A.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Bonazzola, M.

2017-12-01

Clouds have the potential to accelerate or slow the rate of Arctic sea ice loss through their radiative influence on the surface. Cloud feedbacks can therefore play into Arctic warming as clouds respond to changes in sea ice cover. As the Arctic moves toward an ice-free state, understanding how cloud - sea ice relationships change in response to sea ice loss is critical for predicting the future climate trajectory. From satellite observations we know the effect of present-day sea ice cover on clouds, but how will clouds respond to sea ice loss as the Arctic transitions to a seasonally open water state? In this study we use a lidar simulator to first evaluate cloud - sea ice relationships in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) against present-day observations (2006-2015). In the current climate, the cloud response to sea ice is well-represented in CESM1: we see no summer cloud response to changes in sea ice cover, but more fall clouds over open water than over sea ice. Since CESM1 is credible for the current Arctic climate, we next assess if our process-based understanding of Arctic cloud feedbacks related to sea ice loss is relevant for understanding future Arctic clouds. In the future Arctic, summer cloud structure continues to be insensitive to surface conditions. As the Arctic warms in the fall, however, the boundary layer deepens and cloud fraction increases over open ocean during each consecutive decade from 2020 - 2100. This study will also explore seasonal changes in cloud properties such as opacity and liquid water path. Results thus far suggest that a positive fall cloud - sea ice feedback exists in the present-day and future Arctic climate.

Cirrus clouds and climate feedback: Is the sky falling and should we go tell the king

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephens, Graeme L.

1990-01-01

It is widely believed that thin cirrus clouds act to enhance the greenhouse effect owing to a particular combination of their optical properties. It is demonstrated how this effect is perhaps based on inadequate resolution of the physics of cirrus clouds and that the more likely impact of cirrus clouds to climate change remains somewhat elusive. These conclusions are developed within the context of a specific feedback mechanism incorporated into a simple mechanistic climate model. A specific scientific question addressed is whether or not the observed relationship between the ice water content and temperature of cirrus provides any significant feedback to the CO2 greenhouse warming. A related question also examined concerns the specific role of cloud microphysics and radiation in this feedback. This raises several pertinent issues about the understanding of cirrus clouds and their likely role in climate change as there presently exists a considerable uncertainty about the microphysics of these clouds (size and shape of ice crystals) and their radiative influences.

A Comparison of Climate Feedback Strength between CO2 Doubling and LGM Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimori, M.; Yokohata, T.; Abe-Ouchi, A.

2008-12-01

Studies of past climate potentially provide a constraint on the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, but previous studies warn against a simple scaling to the future. The climate sensitivity is determined by various feedback processes and they may vary with climate states and forcings. In this study, we investigate similarities and differences of feedbacks for a CO2 doubling, a last glacial maximum (LGM), and LGM greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing experiments, using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. After computing the radiative forcing, the individual feedback strengths: water vapor, lapse rate, albedo, and cloud feedbacks, are evaluated explicitly. For this particular model, the difference in the climate sensitivity among experiments is attributed to the shortwave cloud feedback in which there is a tendency that it becomes weaker or even negative in the cooling experiments. No significant difference is found in the water vapor feedback between warming and cooling experiments by GHGs despite the nonlinear dependence of the Clausius-Clapeyron relation on temperature. The weaker water vapor feedback in the LGM experiment due to a relatively weaker tropical forcing is compensated by the stronger lapse rate feedback due to a relatively stronger extratropical forcing. A hypothesis is proposed which explains the asymmetric cloud response between warming and cooling experiments associated with a displacement of the region of mixed- phase clouds. The difference in the total feedback strength between experiments is, however, relatively small compared to the current intermodel spread, and does not necessarily preclude the use of LGM climate as a future constraint.

Cloud/climate sensitivity experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roads, J. O.; Vallis, G. K.; Remer, L.

1982-01-01

A study of the relationships between large-scale cloud fields and large scale circulation patterns is presented. The basic tool is a multi-level numerical model comprising conservation equations for temperature, water vapor and cloud water and appropriate parameterizations for evaporation, condensation, precipitation and radiative feedbacks. Incorporating an equation for cloud water in a large-scale model is somewhat novel and allows the formation and advection of clouds to be treated explicitly. The model is run on a two-dimensional, vertical-horizontal grid with constant winds. It is shown that cloud cover increases with decreased eddy vertical velocity, decreased horizontal advection, decreased atmospheric temperature, increased surface temperature, and decreased precipitation efficiency. The cloud field is found to be well correlated with the relative humidity field except at the highest levels. When radiative feedbacks are incorporated and the temperature increased by increasing CO2 content, cloud amounts decrease at upper-levels or equivalently cloud top height falls. This reduces the temperature response, especially at upper levels, compared with an experiment in which cloud cover is fixed.

Do Southern Ocean Cloud Feedbacks Matter for 21st Century Warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, W. R.; Maroon, E. A.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.

2017-12-01

Cloud phase improvements in a state-of-the-art climate model produce a large 1.5 K increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, the surface warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2) via extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks. Here we show that the same model improvements produce only a small surface warming increase in a realistic 21st century emissions scenario. The small 21st century warming increase is attributed to extratropical ocean heat uptake. Southern Ocean mean-state circulation takes up heat while a slowdown in North Atlantic circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. Persistent heat uptake by extratropical oceans implies that extratropical cloud biases may not be as important to 21st century warming as biases in other regions. Observational constraints on cloud phase and shortwave radiation that produce a large ECS increase do not imply large changes in 21st century warming.

Quantifying the Sources of Intermodel Spread in Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caldwell, Peter M.; Zelinka, Mark D.; Taylor, Karl E.

This paper clarifies the causes of intermodel differences in the global-average temperature response to doubled CO 2, commonly known as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The authors begin by noting several issues with the standard approach for decomposing ECS into a sum of forcing and feedback terms. This leads to a derivation of an alternative method based on linearizing the effect of the net feedback. Consistent with previous studies, the new method identifies shortwave cloud feedback as the dominant source of intermodel spread in ECS. This new approach also reveals that covariances between cloud feedback and forcing, between lapse rate andmore » longwave cloud feedbacks, and between albedo and shortwave cloud feedbacks play an important and previously underappreciated role in determining model differences in ECS. Finally, defining feedbacks based on fixed relative rather than specific humidity (as suggested by Held and Shell) reduces the covariances between processes and leads to more straightforward interpretations of results.« less

Quantifying the Sources of Intermodel Spread in Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

DOE PAGES

Caldwell, Peter M.; Zelinka, Mark D.; Taylor, Karl E.; ...

2016-01-07

This paper clarifies the causes of intermodel differences in the global-average temperature response to doubled CO 2, commonly known as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The authors begin by noting several issues with the standard approach for decomposing ECS into a sum of forcing and feedback terms. This leads to a derivation of an alternative method based on linearizing the effect of the net feedback. Consistent with previous studies, the new method identifies shortwave cloud feedback as the dominant source of intermodel spread in ECS. This new approach also reveals that covariances between cloud feedback and forcing, between lapse rate andmore » longwave cloud feedbacks, and between albedo and shortwave cloud feedbacks play an important and previously underappreciated role in determining model differences in ECS. Finally, defining feedbacks based on fixed relative rather than specific humidity (as suggested by Held and Shell) reduces the covariances between processes and leads to more straightforward interpretations of results.« less

Insights from a refined decomposition of cloud feedbacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zelinka, Mark D.; Zhou, Chen; Klein, Stephen A.

Decomposing cloud feedback into components due to changes in several gross cloud properties provides valuable insights into its physical causes. Here we present a refined decomposition that separately considers changes in free tropospheric and low cloud properties, better connecting feedbacks to individual governing processes and avoiding ambiguities present in a commonly used decomposition. It reveals that three net cloud feedback components are robustly nonzero: positive feedbacks from increasing free tropospheric cloud altitude and decreasing low cloud cover and a negative feedback from increasing low cloud optical depth. Low cloud amount feedback is the dominant contributor to spread in net cloudmore » feedback but its anticorrelation with other components damps overall spread. Furthermore, the ensemble mean free tropospheric cloud altitude feedback is roughly 60% as large as the standard cloud altitude feedback because it avoids aliasing in low cloud reductions. Implications for the “null hypothesis” climate sensitivity from well-understood and robustly simulated feedbacks are discussed.« less

Insights from a refined decomposition of cloud feedbacks

DOE PAGES

Zelinka, Mark D.; Zhou, Chen; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-09-05

Decomposing cloud feedback into components due to changes in several gross cloud properties provides valuable insights into its physical causes. Here we present a refined decomposition that separately considers changes in free tropospheric and low cloud properties, better connecting feedbacks to individual governing processes and avoiding ambiguities present in a commonly used decomposition. It reveals that three net cloud feedback components are robustly nonzero: positive feedbacks from increasing free tropospheric cloud altitude and decreasing low cloud cover and a negative feedback from increasing low cloud optical depth. Low cloud amount feedback is the dominant contributor to spread in net cloudmore » feedback but its anticorrelation with other components damps overall spread. Furthermore, the ensemble mean free tropospheric cloud altitude feedback is roughly 60% as large as the standard cloud altitude feedback because it avoids aliasing in low cloud reductions. Implications for the “null hypothesis” climate sensitivity from well-understood and robustly simulated feedbacks are discussed.« less

Emergent Constraints for Cloud Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity

DOE PAGES

Klein, Stephen A.; Hall, Alex

2015-10-26

Emergent constraints are physically explainable empirical relationships between characteristics of the current climate and long-term climate prediction that emerge in collections of climate model simulations. With the prospect of constraining long-term climate prediction, scientists have recently uncovered several emergent constraints related to long-term cloud feedbacks. We review these proposed emergent constraints, many of which involve the behavior of low-level clouds, and discuss criteria to assess their credibility. With further research, some of the cases we review may eventually become confirmed emergent constraints, provided they are accompanied by credible physical explanations. Because confirmed emergent constraints identify a source of model errormore » that projects onto climate predictions, they deserve extra attention from those developing climate models and climate observations. While a systematic bias cannot be ruled out, it is noteworthy that the promising emergent constraints suggest larger cloud feedback and hence climate sensitivity.« less

The Dependence of Cloud Property Trend Detection on Absolute Calibration Accuracy of Passive Satellite Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shea, Y.; Wielicki, B. A.; Sun-Mack, S.; Minnis, P.; Zelinka, M. D.

2016-12-01

Detecting trends in climate variables on global, decadal scales requires highly accurate, stable measurements and retrieval algorithms. Trend uncertainty depends on its magnitude, natural variability, and instrument and retrieval algorithm accuracy and stability. We applied a climate accuracy framework to quantify the impact of absolute calibration on cloud property trend uncertainty. The cloud properties studied were cloud fraction, effective temperature, optical thickness, and effective radius retrieved using the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Cloud Property Retrieval System, which uses Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer measurements (MODIS). Modeling experiments from the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) agree that net cloud feedback is likely positive but disagree regarding its magnitude, mainly due to uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback. With the climate accuracy framework we determined the time to detect trends for instruments with various calibration accuracies. We estimated a relationship between cloud property trend uncertainty, cloud feedback, and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and also between effective radius trend uncertainty and aerosol indirect effect trends. The direct relationship between instrument accuracy requirements and climate model output provides the level of instrument absolute accuracy needed to reduce climate model projection uncertainty. Different cloud types have varied radiative impacts on the climate system depending on several attributes, such as their thermodynamic phase, altitude, and optical thickness. Therefore, we also conducted these studies by cloud types for a clearer understanding of instrument accuracy requirements needed to detect changes in their cloud properties. Combining this information with the radiative impact of different cloud types helps to prioritize among requirements for future satellite sensors and understanding the climate detection capabilities of existing sensors.

Comparison of three ice cloud optical schemes in climate simulations with community atmospheric model version 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Wenjie; Peng, Yiran; Wang, Bin; Yi, Bingqi; Lin, Yanluan; Li, Jiangnan

2018-05-01

A newly implemented Baum-Yang scheme for simulating ice cloud optical properties is compared with existing schemes (Mitchell and Fu schemes) in a standalone radiative transfer model and in the global climate model (GCM) Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (CAM5). This study systematically analyzes the effect of different ice cloud optical schemes on global radiation and climate by a series of simulations with a simplified standalone radiative transfer model, atmospheric GCM CAM5, and a comprehensive coupled climate model. Results from the standalone radiative model show that Baum-Yang scheme yields generally weaker effects of ice cloud on temperature profiles both in shortwave and longwave spectrum. CAM5 simulations indicate that Baum-Yang scheme in place of Mitchell/Fu scheme tends to cool the upper atmosphere and strengthen the thermodynamic instability in low- and mid-latitudes, which could intensify the Hadley circulation and dehydrate the subtropics. When CAM5 is coupled with a slab ocean model to include simplified air-sea interaction, reduced downward longwave flux to surface in Baum-Yang scheme mitigates ice-albedo feedback in the Arctic as well as water vapor and cloud feedbacks in low- and mid-latitudes, resulting in an overall temperature decrease by 3.0/1.4 °C globally compared with Mitchell/Fu schemes. Radiative effect and climate feedback of the three ice cloud optical schemes documented in this study can be referred for future improvements on ice cloud simulation in CAM5.

A High-Latitude Winter Continental Low Cloud Feedback Suppresses Arctic Air Formation in Warmer Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cronin, T.; Tziperman, E.; Li, H.

2015-12-01

High latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. It has also been found that the high-latitude lapse rate feedback plays an important role in Arctic amplification of climate change in climate model simulations, but we have little understanding of why lapse rates at high latitudes change so strongly with warming. To better understand these problems, we study Arctic air formation - the process by which a high-latitude maritime air mass is advected over a continent during polar night, cooled at the surface by radiation, and transformed into a much colder continental polar air mass - and its sensitivity to climate warming. We use a single-column version of the WRF model to conduct two-week simulations of the cooling process across a wide range of initial temperature profiles and microphysics schemes, and find that a low cloud feedback suppresses Arctic air formation in warmer climates. This cloud feedback consists of an increase in low cloud amount with warming, which shields the surface from radiative cooling, and increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ~10 days for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 oC. Given that this is about the time it takes an air mass starting over the Pacific to traverse the north American continent, this suggests that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates. We find that CMIP5 climate model runs show large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, consistent with the proposed low-cloud feedback. The suppression of Arctic air formation with warming may act as a significant amplifier of climate change at high latitudes, and offers a mechanistic perspective on the high-latitude "lapse rate feedback" diagnosed in climate models.

STAR FORMATION IN DISK GALAXIES. III. DOES STELLAR FEEDBACK RESULT IN CLOUD DEATH?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tasker, Elizabeth J.; Wadsley, James; Pudritz, Ralph

2015-03-01

Stellar feedback, star formation, and gravitational interactions are major controlling forces in the evolution of giant molecular clouds (GMCs). To explore their relative roles, we examine the properties and evolution of GMCs forming in an isolated galactic disk simulation that includes both localized thermal feedback and photoelectric heating. The results are compared with the three previous simulations in this series, which consists of a model with no star formation, star formation but no form of feedback, and star formation with photoelectric heating in a set with steadily increasing physical effects. We find that the addition of localized thermal feedback greatlymore » suppresses star formation but does not destroy the surrounding GMC, giving cloud properties closely resembling the run in which no stellar physics is included. The outflows from the feedback reduce the mass of the cloud but do not destroy it, allowing the cloud to survive its stellar children. This suggests that weak thermal feedback such as the lower bound expected for a supernova may play a relatively minor role in the galactic structure of quiescent Milky-Way-type galaxies, compared to gravitational interactions and disk shear.« less

Mechanisms and Model Diversity of Trade-Wind Shallow Cumulus Cloud Feedbacks: A Review.

PubMed

Vial, Jessica; Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn; Vogel, Raphaela

2017-01-01

Shallow cumulus clouds in the trade-wind regions are at the heart of the long standing uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates. In current climate models, cloud feedbacks are strongly influenced by cloud-base cloud amount in the trades. Therefore, understanding the key factors controlling cloudiness near cloud-base in shallow convective regimes has emerged as an important topic of investigation. We review physical understanding of these key controlling factors and discuss the value of the different approaches that have been developed so far, based on global and high-resolution model experimentations and process-oriented analyses across a range of models and for observations. The trade-wind cloud feedbacks appear to depend on two important aspects: (1) how cloudiness near cloud-base is controlled by the local interplay between turbulent, convective and radiative processes; (2) how these processes interact with their surrounding environment and are influenced by mesoscale organization. Our synthesis of studies that have explored these aspects suggests that the large diversity of model responses is related to fundamental differences in how the processes controlling trade cumulus operate in models, notably, whether they are parameterized or resolved. In models with parameterized convection, cloudiness near cloud-base is very sensitive to the vigor of convective mixing in response to changes in environmental conditions. This is in contrast with results from high-resolution models, which suggest that cloudiness near cloud-base is nearly invariant with warming and independent of large-scale environmental changes. Uncertainties are difficult to narrow using current observations, as the trade cumulus variability and its relation to large-scale environmental factors strongly depend on the time and/or spatial scales at which the mechanisms are evaluated. New opportunities for testing physical understanding of the factors controlling shallow cumulus cloud responses using observations and high-resolution modeling on large domains are discussed.

Mechanisms and Model Diversity of Trade-Wind Shallow Cumulus Cloud Feedbacks: A Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vial, Jessica; Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn; Vogel, Raphaela

2017-11-01

Shallow cumulus clouds in the trade-wind regions are at the heart of the long standing uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates. In current climate models, cloud feedbacks are strongly influenced by cloud-base cloud amount in the trades. Therefore, understanding the key factors controlling cloudiness near cloud-base in shallow convective regimes has emerged as an important topic of investigation. We review physical understanding of these key controlling factors and discuss the value of the different approaches that have been developed so far, based on global and high-resolution model experimentations and process-oriented analyses across a range of models and for observations. The trade-wind cloud feedbacks appear to depend on two important aspects: (1) how cloudiness near cloud-base is controlled by the local interplay between turbulent, convective and radiative processes; (2) how these processes interact with their surrounding environment and are influenced by mesoscale organization. Our synthesis of studies that have explored these aspects suggests that the large diversity of model responses is related to fundamental differences in how the processes controlling trade cumulus operate in models, notably, whether they are parameterized or resolved. In models with parameterized convection, cloudiness near cloud-base is very sensitive to the vigor of convective mixing in response to changes in environmental conditions. This is in contrast with results from high-resolution models, which suggest that cloudiness near cloud-base is nearly invariant with warming and independent of large-scale environmental changes. Uncertainties are difficult to narrow using current observations, as the trade cumulus variability and its relation to large-scale environmental factors strongly depend on the time and/or spatial scales at which the mechanisms are evaluated. New opportunities for testing physical understanding of the factors controlling shallow cumulus cloud responses using observations and high-resolution modeling on large domains are discussed.

Mechanisms and Model Diversity of Trade-Wind Shallow Cumulus Cloud Feedbacks: A Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vial, Jessica; Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn; Vogel, Raphaela

Shallow cumulus clouds in the trade-wind regions are at the heart of the long standing uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates. In current climate models, cloud feedbacks are strongly influenced by cloud-base cloud amount in the trades. Therefore, understanding the key factors controlling cloudiness near cloud-base in shallow convective regimes has emerged as an important topic of investigation. We review physical understanding of these key controlling factors and discuss the value of the different approaches that have been developed so far, based on global and high-resolution model experimentations and process-oriented analyses across a range of models and for observations. The trade-wind cloud feedbacks appear to depend on two important aspects: (1) how cloudiness near cloud-base is controlled by the local interplay between turbulent, convective and radiative processes; (2) how these processes interact with their surrounding environment and are influenced by mesoscale organization. Our synthesis of studies that have explored these aspects suggests that the large diversity of model responses is related to fundamental differences in how the processes controlling trade cumulus operate in models, notably, whether they are parameterized or resolved. In models with parameterized convection, cloudiness near cloud-base is very sensitive to the vigor of convective mixing in response to changes in environmental conditions. This is in contrast with results from high-resolution models, which suggest that cloudiness near cloud-base is nearly invariant with warming and independent of large-scale environmental changes. Uncertainties are difficult to narrow using current observations, as the trade cumulus variability and its relation to large-scale environmental factors strongly depend on the time and/or spatial scales at which the mechanisms are evaluated. New opportunities for testing physical understanding of the factors controlling shallow cumulus cloud responses using observations and highresolution modeling on large domains are discussed.

Interactive Nature of Climate Change and Aerosol Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nazarenko, L.; Rind, D.; Tsigaridis, K.; Del Genio, A. D.; Kelley, M.; Tausnev, N.

2017-01-01

The effect of changing cloud cover on climate, based on cloud-aerosol interactions, is one of the major unknowns for climate forcing and climate sensitivity. It has two components: (1) the impact of aerosols on clouds and climate due to in-situ interactions (i.e., rapid response); and (2) the effect of aerosols on the cloud feedback that arises as climate changes - climate feedback response. We examine both effects utilizing the NASA GISS ModelE2 to assess the indirect effect, with both mass-based and microphysical aerosol schemes, in transient twentieth-century simulations. We separate the rapid response and climate feedback effects by making simulations with a coupled version of the model as well as one with no sea surface temperature or sea ice response (atmosphere-only simulations). We show that the indirect effect of aerosols on temperature is altered by the climate feedbacks following the ocean response, and this change differs depending upon which aerosol model is employed. Overall the effective radiative forcing (ERF) for the direct effect of aerosol-radiation interaction (ERFari) ranges between -0.2 and -0.6 W/sq m for atmosphere-only experiments while the total effective radiative forcing, including the indirect effect (ERFari+aci) varies between about -0.4 and -1.1 W/sq m for atmosphere-only simulations; both ranges are in agreement with those given in IPCC (2013). Including the full feedback of the climate system lowers these ranges to -0.2 to -0.5 W/sq m for ERFari, and -0.3 to -0.74 W/sq m for ERFari+aci. With both aerosol schemes, the climate change feedbacks have reduced the global average indirect radiative effect of atmospheric aerosols relative to what the emission changes would have produced, at least partially due to its effect on tropical upper tropospheric clouds.

On the Emergent Constraints of Climate Sensitivity [On proposed emergent constraints of climate sensitivity

DOE PAGES

Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex; DeAngelis, Anthony M.; ...

2018-01-11

Differences among climate models in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; the equilibrium surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2) remain a significant barrier to the accurate assessment of societally important impacts of climate change. Relationships between ECS and observable metrics of the current climate in model ensembles, so-called emergent constraints, have been used to constrain ECS. Here a statistical method (including a backward selection process) is employed to achieve a better statistical understanding of the connections between four recently proposed emergent constraint metrics and individual feedbacks influencing ECS. The relationship between each metric and ECS is largely attributable tomore » a statistical connection with shortwave low cloud feedback, the leading cause of intermodel ECS spread. This result bolsters confidence in some of the metrics, which had assumed such a connection in the first place. Additional analysis is conducted with a few thousand artificial metrics that are randomly generated but are well correlated with ECS. The relationships between the contrived metrics and ECS can also be linked statistically to shortwave cloud feedback. Thus, any proposed or forthcoming ECS constraint based on the current generation of climate models should be viewed as a potential constraint on shortwave cloud feedback, and physical links with that feedback should be investigated to verify that the constraint is real. Additionally, any proposed ECS constraint should not be taken at face value since other factors influencing ECS besides shortwave cloud feedback could be systematically biased in the models.« less

On the Emergent Constraints of Climate Sensitivity [On proposed emergent constraints of climate sensitivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex; DeAngelis, Anthony M.

Differences among climate models in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; the equilibrium surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2) remain a significant barrier to the accurate assessment of societally important impacts of climate change. Relationships between ECS and observable metrics of the current climate in model ensembles, so-called emergent constraints, have been used to constrain ECS. Here a statistical method (including a backward selection process) is employed to achieve a better statistical understanding of the connections between four recently proposed emergent constraint metrics and individual feedbacks influencing ECS. The relationship between each metric and ECS is largely attributable tomore » a statistical connection with shortwave low cloud feedback, the leading cause of intermodel ECS spread. This result bolsters confidence in some of the metrics, which had assumed such a connection in the first place. Additional analysis is conducted with a few thousand artificial metrics that are randomly generated but are well correlated with ECS. The relationships between the contrived metrics and ECS can also be linked statistically to shortwave cloud feedback. Thus, any proposed or forthcoming ECS constraint based on the current generation of climate models should be viewed as a potential constraint on shortwave cloud feedback, and physical links with that feedback should be investigated to verify that the constraint is real. Additionally, any proposed ECS constraint should not be taken at face value since other factors influencing ECS besides shortwave cloud feedback could be systematically biased in the models.« less

STABILIZING CLOUD FEEDBACK DRAMATICALLY EXPANDS THE HABITABLE ZONE OF TIDALLY LOCKED PLANETS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang Jun; Abbot, Dorian S.; Cowan, Nicolas B., E-mail: abbot@uchicago.edu

2013-07-10

The habitable zone (HZ) is the circumstellar region where a planet can sustain surface liquid water. Searching for terrestrial planets in the HZ of nearby stars is the stated goal of ongoing and planned extrasolar planet surveys. Previous estimates of the inner edge of the HZ were based on one-dimensional radiative-convective models. The most serious limitation of these models is the inability to predict cloud behavior. Here we use global climate models with sophisticated cloud schemes to show that due to a stabilizing cloud feedback, tidally locked planets can be habitable at twice the stellar flux found by previous studies.more » This dramatically expands the HZ and roughly doubles the frequency of habitable planets orbiting red dwarf stars. At high stellar flux, strong convection produces thick water clouds near the substellar location that greatly increase the planetary albedo and reduce surface temperatures. Higher insolation produces stronger substellar convection and therefore higher albedo, making this phenomenon a stabilizing climate feedback. Substellar clouds also effectively block outgoing radiation from the surface, reducing or even completely reversing the thermal emission contrast between dayside and nightside. The presence of substellar water clouds and the resulting clement surface conditions will therefore be detectable with the James Webb Space Telescope.« less

How Difficult is it to Reduce Low-Level Cloud Biases With the Higher-Order Turbulence Closure Approach in Climate Models?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Kuan-Man

2015-01-01

Low-level clouds cover nearly half of the Earth and play a critical role in regulating the energy and hydrological cycle. Despite the fact that a great effort has been put to advance the modeling and observational capability in recent years, low-level clouds remains one of the largest uncertainties in the projection of future climate change. Low-level cloud feedbacks dominate the uncertainty in the total cloud feedback in climate sensitivity and projection studies. These clouds are notoriously difficult to simulate in climate models due to its complicated interactions with aerosols, cloud microphysics, boundary-layer turbulence and cloud dynamics. The biases in both low cloud coverage/water content and cloud radiative effects (CREs) remain large. A simultaneous reduction in both cloud and CRE biases remains elusive. This presentation first reviews the effort of implementing the higher-order turbulence closure (HOC) approach to representing subgrid-scale turbulence and low-level cloud processes in climate models. There are two HOCs that have been implemented in climate models. They differ in how many three-order moments are used. The CLUBB are implemented in both CAM5 and GDFL models, which are compared with IPHOC that is implemented in CAM5 by our group. IPHOC uses three third-order moments while CLUBB only uses one third-order moment while both use a joint double-Gaussian distribution to represent the subgrid-scale variability. Despite that HOC is more physically consistent and produces more realistic low-cloud geographic distributions and transitions between cumulus and stratocumulus regimes, GCMs with traditional cloud parameterizations outperform in CREs because tuning of this type of models is more extensively performed than those with HOCs. We perform several tuning experiments with CAM5 implemented with IPHOC in an attempt to produce the nearly balanced global radiative budgets without deteriorating the low-cloud simulation. One of the issues in CAM5-IPHOC is that cloud water content is much higher than in CAM5, which is combined with higher low-cloud coverage to produce larger shortwave CREs in some low-cloud prevailing regions. Thus, the cloud-radiative feedbacks are exaggerated there. The turning exercise is focused on microphysical parameters, which are also commonly used for tuning in climate models. The results will be discussed in this presentation.

Shortwave forcing and feedbacks in Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene PMIP3 simulations.

PubMed

Braconnot, Pascale; Kageyama, Masa

2015-11-13

Simulations of the climates of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21 000 years ago, and of the Mid-Holocene (MH), 6000 years ago, allow an analysis of climate feedbacks in climate states that are radically different from today. The analyses of cloud and surface albedo feedbacks show that the shortwave cloud feedback is a major driver of differences between model results. Similar behaviours appear when comparing the LGM and MH simulated changes, highlighting the fingerprint of model physics. Even though the different feedbacks show similarities between the different climate periods, the fact that their relative strength differs from one climate to the other prevents a direct comparison of past and future climate sensitivity. The land-surface feedback also shows large disparities among models even though they all produce positive sea-ice and snow feedbacks. Models have very different sensitivities when considering the vegetation feedback. This feedback has a regional pattern that differs significantly between models and depends on their level of complexity and model biases. Analyses of the MH climate in two versions of the IPSL model provide further indication on the possibilities to assess the role of model biases and model physics on simulated climate changes using past climates for which observations can be used to assess the model results. © 2015 The Author(s).

On the Representation of Cloud Phase in Global Climate Models, and its Importance for Simulations of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storelvmo, Trude; Sagoo, Navjit; Tan, Ivy

2016-04-01

Despite the growing effort in improving the cloud microphysical schemes in GCMs, most of this effort has not focused on improving the ability of GCMs to accurately simulate phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds. Getting the relative proportion of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds right in GCMs is critical for the representation of cloud radiative forcings and cloud-climate feedbacks. Here, we first present satellite observations of cloud phase obtained by NASA's CALIOP instrument, and report on robust statistical relationships between cloud phase and several aerosols species that have been demonstrated to act as ice nuclei (IN) in laboratory studies. We then report on results from model intercomparison projects that reveal that GCMs generally underestimate the amount of supercooled liquid in clouds. For a selected GCM (NCAR 's CAM5), we thereafter show that the underestimate can be attributed to two main factors: i) the presence of IN in the mixed-phase temperature range, and ii) the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process, which converts liquid to ice once ice crystals have formed. Finally, we show that adjusting these two processes such that the GCM's cloud phase is in agreement with the observed has a substantial impact on the simulated radiative forcing due to IN perturbations, as well as on the cloud-climate feedbacks and ultimately climate sensitivity simulated by the GCM.

Does The Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindzen, Richard S.; Chou, Ming-Dah; Hou, Arthur

2000-01-01

Observations and analyses of water vapor and clouds in the tropics over the past decade suggest a different approach to radiative climate feedbacks: namely, that high clouds and high free-tropospheric relative humidity are largely tied to each other, and that the main feedback consists in changing the relative areas of cloudy/moist regions vis a vis clear/dry regions in response to the surface temperature of the cloudy/moist regions - as opposed to altering the humidity in either of the regions. This is an intrinsically 2-dimensional (horizontal and vertical) effect which does not readily enter simple 1-dimensional (vertical) radiative-convective schemes which emphasize average humidity, etc. Preliminary analyses of cloud data for the eastern part of the Western Pacific from the Japanese GMS-5(Geostationary Meteorological Satellite), are supportive of this suggestion - pointing to a 15% reduction in cloudy/moist area for a 1C increase of the sea surface temperature as measured by the cloud-weighted SST (sea surface temperature). The implication of this result is examined using a simple 2-dimensional radiative-convective model. The calculations show that such a change in the tropics would lead to a strong negative feedback in the global climate, with a feedback factor of about -1.7, which, if correct, would easily dominate the positive water vapor feedback found in current models. This new feedback mechanism, in effect, constitutes an adaptive infrared iris that opens and closes in order to control the OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) in response to changes in surface temperature in a manner similar to the way in which an eye's iris opens and closes in response to changing light levels. The climate sensitivity resulting from this thermostatic mechanism is consistent with the independent determination by Lindzen and Giannitisis (1998). Preliminary attempts to replicate observations with GCMs (General Circulation Models) suggest that models lack such a negative cloud/moist areal feedback.

The Impact of Low-Level Cloud Feedback on Persistent Changes in Atmospheric Circulation in the Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgman, R.; Kirtman, B. P.; Clement, A. C.; Vazquez, H.

2017-12-01

Recent studies suggest that low clouds in the Pacific play an important role in the observed decadal climate variability and future climate change. In this study, we implement a novel modeling experiment designed to isolate how interactions between local and remote feedbacks associated with low cloud, SSTs, and the largescale circulation play a significant role in the observed persistence of tropical Pacific SST and associated North American drought. The modeling approach involves the incorporation of observed patterns of satellite-derived shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) into the coupled model framework and is ideally suited for examining the role of local and large-scale coupled feedbacks and ocean heat transport in Pacific decadal variability. We show that changes in SWCRE forcing in eastern subtropical Pacific alone reproduces much of the observed changes in SST and atmospheric circulation over the past 16 years, including the observed changes in precipitation over much of the Western Hemisphere.

On the Representation of Ice Nucleation in Global Climate Models, and its Importance for Simulations of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storelvmo, T.

2015-12-01

Substantial improvements have been made to the cloud microphysical schemes used in the latest generation of global climate models (GCMs), however, an outstanding weakness of these schemes lies in the arbitrariness of their tuning parameters. Despite the growing effort in improving the cloud microphysical schemes in GCMs, most of this effort has not focused on improving the ability of GCMs to accurately simulate phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds. Getting the relative proportion of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds right in GCMs is critical for the representation of cloud radiative forcings and cloud-climate feedbacks. Here, we first present satellite observations of cloud phase obtained by NASA's CALIOP instrument, and report on robust statistical relationships between cloud phase and several aerosols species that have been demonstrated to act as ice nuclei (IN) in laboratory studies. We then report on results from model intercomparison projects that reveal that GCMs generally underestimate the amount of supercooled liquid in clouds. For a selected GCM (NCAR 's CAM5), we thereafter show that the underestimate can be attributed to two main factors: i) the presence of IN in the mixed-phase temperature range, and ii) the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process, which converts liquid to ice once ice crystals have formed. Finally, we show that adjusting these two processes such that the GCM's cloud phase is in agreement with the observed has a substantial impact on the simulated radiative forcing due to IN perturbations, as well as on the cloud-climate feedbacks and ultimately climate sensitivity simulated by the GCM.

Simulating Aerosol Indirect Effects with Improved Aerosol-Cloud- Precipitation Representations in a Coupled Regional Climate Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yang; Leung, L. Ruby; Fan, Jiwen

This is a collaborative project among North Carolina State University, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego to address the critical need for an accurate representation of aerosol indirect effect in climate and Earth system models. In this project, we propose to develop and improve parameterizations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation feedbacks in climate models and apply them to study the effect of aerosols and clouds on radiation and hydrologic cycle. Our overall objective is to develop, improve, and evaluate parameterizations to enable more accurate simulations of these feedbacks in high resolution regional and globalmore » climate models.« less

Clearing clouds of uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zelinka, Mark D.; Randall, David A.; Webb, Mark J.; Klein, Stephen A.

2017-10-01

Since 1990, the wide range in model-based estimates of equilibrium climate warming has been attributed to disparate cloud responses to warming. However, major progress in our ability to understand, observe, and simulate clouds has led to the conclusion that global cloud feedback is likely positive.

RACORO Extended-Term Aircraft Observations of Boundary-Layer Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vogelmann, Andrew M.; McFarquhar, Greg M.; Ogren, John A.; Turner, David D.; Comstock, Jennifer M.; Feingold, Graham; Long, Charles N.; Jonsson, Haflidi H.; Bucholtz, Anthony; Collins, Don R.;

Clearing clouds of uncertainty

DOE PAGES

Zelinka, Mark D.; Randall, David A.; Webb, Mark J.; ...

2017-09-29

We report that since 1990, the wide range in model-based estimates of equilibrium climate warming has been attributed to disparate cloud responses to warming. However, major progress in our ability to understand, observe, and simulate clouds has led to the conclusion that global cloud feedback is likely positive.

Radiative Feedback of Forming Star Clusters on Their GMC Environments: Theory and Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, C. S.; Pudritz, R. E.; Harris, W. E.

2013-07-01

Star clusters form from dense clumps within a molecular cloud. Radiation from these newly formed clusters feeds back on their natal molecular cloud through heating and ionization which ultimately stops gas accretion into the cluster. Recent studies suggest that radiative feedback effects from a single cluster may be sufficient to disrupt an entire cloud over a short timescale. Simulating cluster formation on a large scale, however, is computationally demanding due to the high number of stars involved. For this reason, we present a model for representing the radiative output of an entire cluster which involves randomly sampling an initial mass function (IMF) as the cluster accretes mass. We show that this model is able to reproduce the star formation histories of observed clusters. To examine the degree to which radiative feedback shapes the evolution of a molecular cloud, we use the FLASH adaptive-mesh refinement hydrodynamics code to simulate cluster formation in a turbulent cloud. Unlike previous studies, sink particles are used to represent a forming cluster rather than individual stars. Our cluster model is then coupled with a raytracing scheme to treat radiative transfer as the clusters grow in mass. This poster will outline the details of our model and present preliminary results from our 3D hydrodynamical simulations.

Cloud and circulation feedbacks in a near-global aquaplanet cloud-resolving model

DOE PAGES

Narenpitak, Pornampai; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Khairoutdinov, Marat F.

2017-05-08

A near-global aquaplanet cloud-resolving model (NGAqua) with fixed meridionally varying sea-surface temperature (SST) is used to investigate cloud feedbacks due to three climate perturbations: a uniform 4 K SST increase, a quadrupled-CO2 concentration, and both combined. NGAqua has a horizontal resolution of 4 km with no cumulus parameterization. Its domain is a zonally periodic 20,480 km-long tropical channel, spanning 46°S–N. It produces plausible mean distributions of clouds, rainfall, and winds. After spin-up, 80 days are analyzed for the control and increased-SST simulations, and 40 days for those with quadrupled CO 2. The Intertropical Convergence Zone width and tropical cloud covermore » are not strongly affected by SST warming or CO 2 increase, except for the expected upward shift in high clouds with warming, but both perturbations weaken the Hadley circulation. Increased SST induces a statistically significant increase in subtropical low cloud fraction and in-cloud liquid water content but decreases midlatitude cloud, yielding slightly positive domain-mean shortwave cloud feedbacks. CO 2 quadrupling causes a slight shallowing and a statistically insignificant reduction of subtropical low cloud fraction. Warming-induced low cloud changes are strongly correlated with changes in estimated inversion strength, which increases modestly in the subtropics but decreases in the midlatitudes. Enhanced clear-sky boundary layer radiative cooling in the warmer climate accompanies the robust subtropical low cloud increase. The probability distribution of column relative humidity across the tropics and subtropics is compared between the control and increased-SST simulations. It shows no evidence of bimodality or increased convective aggregation in a warmer climate.« less

Cloud and circulation feedbacks in a near-global aquaplanet cloud-resolving model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Narenpitak, Pornampai; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Khairoutdinov, Marat F.

A near-global aquaplanet cloud-resolving model (NGAqua) with fixed meridionally varying sea-surface temperature (SST) is used to investigate cloud feedbacks due to three climate perturbations: a uniform 4 K SST increase, a quadrupled-CO2 concentration, and both combined. NGAqua has a horizontal resolution of 4 km with no cumulus parameterization. Its domain is a zonally periodic 20,480 km-long tropical channel, spanning 46°S–N. It produces plausible mean distributions of clouds, rainfall, and winds. After spin-up, 80 days are analyzed for the control and increased-SST simulations, and 40 days for those with quadrupled CO 2. The Intertropical Convergence Zone width and tropical cloud covermore » are not strongly affected by SST warming or CO 2 increase, except for the expected upward shift in high clouds with warming, but both perturbations weaken the Hadley circulation. Increased SST induces a statistically significant increase in subtropical low cloud fraction and in-cloud liquid water content but decreases midlatitude cloud, yielding slightly positive domain-mean shortwave cloud feedbacks. CO 2 quadrupling causes a slight shallowing and a statistically insignificant reduction of subtropical low cloud fraction. Warming-induced low cloud changes are strongly correlated with changes in estimated inversion strength, which increases modestly in the subtropics but decreases in the midlatitudes. Enhanced clear-sky boundary layer radiative cooling in the warmer climate accompanies the robust subtropical low cloud increase. The probability distribution of column relative humidity across the tropics and subtropics is compared between the control and increased-SST simulations. It shows no evidence of bimodality or increased convective aggregation in a warmer climate.« less

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package: Version 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swales, Dustin J.; Pincus, Robert; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro

2018-01-01

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) gathers together a collection of observation proxies or satellite simulators that translate model-simulated cloud properties to synthetic observations as would be obtained by a range of satellite observing systems. This paper introduces COSP2, an evolution focusing on more explicit and consistent separation between host model, coupling infrastructure, and individual observing proxies. Revisions also enhance flexibility by allowing for model-specific representation of sub-grid-scale cloudiness, provide greater clarity by clearly separating tasks, support greater use of shared code and data including shared inputs across simulators, and follow more uniform software standards to simplify implementation across a wide range of platforms. The complete package including a testing suite is freely available.

Feedbacks between air pollution and weather, part 2: Effects on chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makar, P. A.; Gong, W.; Hogrefe, C.; Zhang, Y.; Curci, G.; Žabkar, R.; Milbrandt, J.; Im, U.; Balzarini, A.; Baró, R.; Bianconi, R.; Cheung, P.; Forkel, R.; Gravel, S.; Hirtl, M.; Honzak, L.; Hou, A.; Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Langer, M.; Moran, M. D.; Pabla, B.; Pérez, J. L.; Pirovano, G.; San José, R.; Tuccella, P.; Werhahn, J.; Zhang, J.; Galmarini, S.

2015-08-01

Fully-coupled air-quality models running in ;feedback; and ;no-feedback; configurations were compared against each other and observation network data as part of Phase 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative. In the ;no-feedback; mode, interactions between meteorology and chemistry through the aerosol direct and indirect effects were disabled, with the models reverting to climatologies of aerosol properties, or a no-aerosol weather simulation, while in the ;feedback; mode, the model-generated aerosols were allowed to modify the models' radiative transfer and/or cloud formation processes. Annual simulations with and without feedbacks were conducted for domains in North America for the years 2006 and 2010, and for Europe for the year 2010. Comparisons against observations via annual statistics show model-to-model variation in performance is greater than the within-model variation associated with feedbacks. However, during the summer and during intense emission events such as the Russian forest fires of 2010, feedbacks have a significant impact on the chemical predictions of the models. The aerosol indirect effect was usually found to dominate feedbacks compared to the direct effect. The impacts of direct and indirect effects were often shown to be in competition, for predictions of ozone, particulate matter and other species. Feedbacks were shown to result in local and regional shifts of ozone-forming chemical regime, between NOx- and VOC-limited environments. Feedbacks were shown to have a substantial influence on biogenic hydrocarbon emissions and concentrations: North American simulations incorporating both feedbacks resulted in summer average isoprene concentration decreases of up to 10%, while European direct effect simulations during the Russian forest fire period resulted in grid average isoprene changes of -5 to +12.5%. The atmospheric transport and chemistry of large emitting sources such as plumes from forest fires and large cities were shown to be strongly impacted by the presence or absence of feedback mechanisms in the model simulations. Summertime model performance for ozone and other gases was improved through the inclusion of indirect effect feedbacks, while performance for particulate matter was degraded, suggesting that current parameterizations for in- and below cloud processes, once the cloud locations become more directly influenced by aerosols, may over- or under-predict the strength of these processes. Process parameterization-level comparisons of fully coupled feedback models are therefore recommended for future work, as well as further studies using these models for the simulations of large scale urban/industrial and/or forest fire plumes.

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Diagnostic Codes Catalogue – metrics, diagnostics and methodologies to evaluate, understand and improve the representation of clouds and cloud feedbacks in climate models

DOE PAGES

Tsushima, Yoko; Brient, Florent; Klein, Stephen A.; ...

2017-11-27

The CFMIP Diagnostic Codes Catalogue assembles cloud metrics, diagnostics and methodologies, together with programs to diagnose them from general circulation model (GCM) outputs written by various members of the CFMIP community. This aims to facilitate use of the diagnostics by the wider community studying climate and climate change. Here, this paper describes the diagnostics and metrics which are currently in the catalogue, together with examples of their application to model evaluation studies and a summary of some of the insights these diagnostics have provided into the main shortcomings in current GCMs. Analysis of outputs from CFMIP and CMIP6 experiments willmore » also be facilitated by the sharing of diagnostic codes via this catalogue. Any code which implements diagnostics relevant to analysing clouds – including cloud–circulation interactions and the contribution of clouds to estimates of climate sensitivity in models – and which is documented in peer-reviewed studies, can be included in the catalogue. We very much welcome additional contributions to further support community analysis of CMIP6 outputs.« less

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Diagnostic Codes Catalogue – metrics, diagnostics and methodologies to evaluate, understand and improve the representation of clouds and cloud feedbacks in climate models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tsushima, Yoko; Brient, Florent; Klein, Stephen A.

The CFMIP Diagnostic Codes Catalogue assembles cloud metrics, diagnostics and methodologies, together with programs to diagnose them from general circulation model (GCM) outputs written by various members of the CFMIP community. This aims to facilitate use of the diagnostics by the wider community studying climate and climate change. Here, this paper describes the diagnostics and metrics which are currently in the catalogue, together with examples of their application to model evaluation studies and a summary of some of the insights these diagnostics have provided into the main shortcomings in current GCMs. Analysis of outputs from CFMIP and CMIP6 experiments willmore » also be facilitated by the sharing of diagnostic codes via this catalogue. Any code which implements diagnostics relevant to analysing clouds – including cloud–circulation interactions and the contribution of clouds to estimates of climate sensitivity in models – and which is documented in peer-reviewed studies, can be included in the catalogue. We very much welcome additional contributions to further support community analysis of CMIP6 outputs.« less

Low clouds suppress Arctic air formation and amplify high-latitude continental winter warming.

PubMed

Cronin, Timothy W; Tziperman, Eli

2015-09-15

High-latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. We use an idealized single-column atmospheric model across a range of conditions to study the polar night process of air mass transformation from high-latitude maritime air, with a prescribed initial temperature profile, to much colder high-latitude continental air. We find that a low-cloud feedback--consisting of a robust increase in the duration of optically thick liquid clouds with warming of the initial state--slows radiative cooling of the surface and amplifies continental warming. This low-cloud feedback increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature, effectively suppressing Arctic air formation. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ∼ 10 d for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 °C. These results, supplemented by an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 climate model runs that shows large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, suggest that the "lapse rate feedback" in simulations of anthropogenic climate change may be related to the influence of low clouds on the stratification of the lower troposphere. The results also indicate that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates.

A multi-sensor approach to the retrieval and model validation of global cloudiness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Steven D.

2000-11-01

The ephemeral clouds have represented a daunting challenge to the atmospheric modeling community from the very beginning. Our inability to resolve them by means of traditional passive sensors to the level of detail required for characterizing their complicated role in the climate feedback system has lead us to explore other resources at our disposal. This research seeks to illustrate and, where applicable, quantify the ways in which active (e.g., radar and lidar) remote sensing devices on existing and proposed platforms can serve to improve our current understanding of cloud and cloud processes in terms of (1)their role in the improvement of cloud property retrievals and (2)their application to the validation/development of clouds in numerical weather prediction models. A new retrieval technique which employs active sensors to constrain cloud boundaries in the vertical is shown to decrease the parameter uncertainties with respect to traditional passive methods in excess of 20% for effective particle radius, and 10-20% for optical depth when considering night-time retrievals of cirrus. These results are brought together with detailed cloud profile sampling from the Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE) to conduct the first global-scale active sensor validation of ECMWF short-range forecasts. The comparisons display remarkable agreement in cloud spatial distribution. A weighted statistical analysis yields hit rates between 75-90%, threat scores 45-75%, probabilities of detection ~80%, and false alarm rates 10-45%. The results suggest that, given the level of realism displayed currently by the ECMWF prognostic cloud scheme forecasts, the reanalysis data may be considered as a new resource for global cloud information. A practical application of these findings has been outlined in the context of defining Cloud-Sat instrument requirements based on virtual orbital observations created from ECMWF global cloud distributions of liquid and ice water contents. This research gives cause for new hope in capturing the complex radiative, convective, and dynamical feedback mechanisms associated with clouds in the climate feedback system. Further, it appeals to the need for an improved collaborative rapport between the now largely disjoint modeling and measurement communities.

Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models

DOE PAGES

Andrews, Timothy; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Webb, Mark J.; ...

2012-05-15

We quantify forcing and feedbacks across available CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) by analysing simulations forced by an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. This is the first application of the linear forcing-feedback regression analysis of Gregory et al. (2004) to an ensemble of AOGCMs. The range of equilibrium climate sensitivity is 2.1–4.7 K. Differences in cloud feedbacks continue to be important contributors to this range. Some models show small deviations from a linear dependence of top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes on global surface temperature change. We show that this phenomenon largely arises from shortwave cloud radiative effects overmore » the ocean and is consistent with independent estimates of forcing using fixed sea-surface temperature methods. Moreover, we suggest that future research should focus more on understanding transient climate change, including any time-scale dependence of the forcing and/or feedback, rather than on the equilibrium response to large instantaneous forcing.« less

The role of clouds in driving North Atlantic multi-decadal climate variability in observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clement, A. C.; Bellomo, K.; Murphy, L.

2013-12-01

Large scale warming and cooling periods of the North Atlantic is known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The pattern of warming and cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean over the 20th century that has a characteristic spatial structure with maximum warming in the mid-latitudes and subtropics. This has been most often attributed to changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which in turn affects poleward heat transport. A recent modeling study by Booth et al. (2012), however, suggested that aerosols can explain both the spatial pattern and temporal history of Atlantic SST through indirect effects of aerosols on cloud cover; although this idea is controversial (Zhang et al., 2013). We have found observational evidence that changes in cloud amount can drive SST changes on multi-decadal timescale. We hypothesize that a positive local feedback between SST and cloud radiative effect amplifies SST and gives rise to the observed pattern of SST change. During cool North Atlantic periods, a southward shift of the ITCZ strengthens the trade winds in the tropical North Atlantic and increases low-level cloud cover, which acts to amplify the SST cooling in the North Atlantic. During warm periods in the North Atlantic, the opposite response occurs. We are testing whether the amplitude of this feedback is realistically simulated in the CMIP5 models, and whether inter-model differences in the amplitude of the feedback can explain differences in model simulations of Atlantic multi-decadal variability.

Aerosol-cloud interactions in Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomon, A.

2017-12-01

Reliable climate projections require realistic simulations of Arctic cloud feedbacks. Of particular importance is accurately simulating Arctic mixed-phase stratocumuli (AMPS), which are ubiquitous and play an important role in regional climate due to their impact on the surface energy budget and atmospheric boundary layer structure through cloud-driven turbulence, radiative forcing, and precipitation. AMPS are challenging to model due to uncertainties in ice microphysical processes that determine phase partitioning between ice and radiatively important cloud liquid water. Since temperatures in AMPS are too warm for homogenous ice nucleation, ice must form through heterogeneous nucleation. In this presentation we discuss a relatively unexplored source of ice production-recycling of ice nuclei in regions of ice subsaturation. AMPS frequently have ice-subsaturated air near the cloud-driven mixed-layer base where falling ice crystals can sublimate, leaving behind IN. This study provides an idealized framework to understand feedbacks between dynamics and microphysics that maintain phase-partitioning in AMPS. In addition, the results of this study provide insight into the mechanisms and feedbacks that may maintain cloud ice in AMPS even when entrainment of IN at the mixed-layer boundaries is weak.

Cloud Feedbacks on Climate: A Challenging Scientific Problem

ScienceCinema

Norris, Joe

2017-12-22

One reason it has been difficult to develop suitable social and economic policies to address global climate change is that projected global warming during the coming century has a large uncertainty range. The primary physical cause of this large uncertainty range is lack of understanding of the magnitude and even sign of cloud feedbacks on the climate system. If Earth's cloudiness responded to global warming by reflecting more solar radiation back to space or allowing more terrestrial radiation to be emitted to space, this would mitigate the warming produced by increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Contrastingly, a cloud response that reduced solar reflection or terrestrial emission would exacerbate anthropogenic greenhouse warming. It is likely that a mixture of responses will occur depending on cloud type and meteorological regime, and at present, we do not know what the net effect will be. This presentation will explain why cloud feedbacks have been a challenging scientific problem from the perspective of theory, modeling, and observations. Recent research results on observed multidecadal cloud-atmosphere-ocean variability over the Pacific Ocean will also be shown, along with suggestions for future research.

Simulations of the effect of a warmer climate on atmospheric humidity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Del Genio, Anthony D.; Lacis, Andrew A.; Ruedy, Reto A.

1991-01-01

Increases in the concentration of water vapor constitute the single largest positive feedback in models of global climate warming caused by greenhouse gases. It has been suggested that sinking air in the regions surrounding deep cumulus clouds will dry the upper troposphere and eliminate or reverse the direction of water vapor feedback. This hypothesis has been tested by performing an idealized simulation of climate change with two different versions of a climate model which both incorporate drying due to subsidence of clear air but differ in their parameterization of moist convection and stratiform clouds. Despite increased drying of the upper troposphere by cumulus clouds, upper-level humidity increases in the warmer climate because of enhanced upward moisture transport by the general circulation and increased accumulation of water vapor and ice at cumulus cloud tops.

Cloud-radiation interactions - Effects of cirrus optical thickness feedbacks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Somerville, Richard C. J.; Iacobellis, Sam

1987-01-01

The paper is concerned with a cloud-radiation feedback mechanism which may be an important component of the climate changes expected from increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace greenhouse gases. A major result of the study is that cirrus cloud optical thickness feedbacks may indeed tend to increase the surface warming due to trace gas increases. However, the positive feedback from cirrus appears to be generally weaker than the negative effects due to lower clouds. The results just confirm those of earlier research indicating that the net effect of cloud optical thickness feedbacks may be a negative feedback which may substantially (by a factor of about 2) reduce the surface warming due to the doubling of CO2, even in the presence of cirrus clouds.

Shortwave radiative forcing, rapid adjustment, and feedback to the surface by sulfate geoengineering: analysis of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project G4 scenario

DOE PAGES

Kashimura, Hiroki; Abe, Manabu; Watanabe, Shingo; ...

2017-03-08

This paper evaluates the forcing, rapid adjustment, and feedback of net shortwave radiation at the surface in the G4 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project by analysing outputs from six participating models. G4 involves injection of 5 Tg yr -1 of SO 2, a sulfate aerosol precursor, into the lower stratosphere from year 2020 to 2069 against a background scenario of RCP4.5. A single-layer atmospheric model for shortwave radiative transfer is used to estimate the direct forcing of solar radiation management (SRM), and rapid adjustment and feedbacks from changes in the water vapour amount, cloud amount, and surface albedo (compared with RCP4.5). The analysismore » shows that the globally and temporally averaged SRM forcing ranges from -3.6 to -1.6 W m -2, depending on the model. The sum of the rapid adjustments and feedback effects due to changes in the water vapour and cloud amounts increase the downwelling shortwave radiation at the surface by approximately 0.4 to 1.5 W m -2 and hence weaken the effect of SRM by around 50 %. The surface albedo changes decrease the net shortwave radiation at the surface; it is locally strong (~-4 W m -2) in snow and sea ice melting regions, but minor for the global average. The analyses show that the results of the G4 experiment, which simulates sulfate geoengineering, include large inter-model variability both in the direct SRM forcing and the shortwave rapid adjustment from change in the cloud amount, and imply a high uncertainty in modelled processes of sulfate aerosols and clouds.« less

Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tan, Ivy; Storelvmo, Trude; Zelinka, Mark D.

Global climate model (GCM) estimates of the equilibrium global mean surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2, measured by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), range from 2.0° to 4.6°C. Clouds are among the leading causes of this uncertainty. Here, in this paper, we show that the ECS can be up to 1.3°C higher in simulations where mixed-phase clouds consisting of ice crystals and supercooled liquid droplets are constrained by global satellite observations. The higher ECS estimates are directly linked to a weakened cloud-phase feedback arising from a decreased cloud glaciation rate in a warmer climate. Finally, wemore » point out the need for realistic representations of the supercooled liquid fraction in mixed-phase clouds in GCMs, given the sensitivity of the ECS to the cloud-phase feedback.« less

Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity

DOE PAGES

Tan, Ivy; Storelvmo, Trude; Zelinka, Mark D.

2016-04-08

Global climate model (GCM) estimates of the equilibrium global mean surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2, measured by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), range from 2.0° to 4.6°C. Clouds are among the leading causes of this uncertainty. Here, in this paper, we show that the ECS can be up to 1.3°C higher in simulations where mixed-phase clouds consisting of ice crystals and supercooled liquid droplets are constrained by global satellite observations. The higher ECS estimates are directly linked to a weakened cloud-phase feedback arising from a decreased cloud glaciation rate in a warmer climate. Finally, wemore » point out the need for realistic representations of the supercooled liquid fraction in mixed-phase clouds in GCMs, given the sensitivity of the ECS to the cloud-phase feedback.« less

Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity.

PubMed

Tan, Ivy; Storelvmo, Trude; Zelinka, Mark D

2016-04-08

Global climate model (GCM) estimates of the equilibrium global mean surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, measured by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), range from 2.0° to 4.6°C. Clouds are among the leading causes of this uncertainty. Here we show that the ECS can be up to 1.3°C higher in simulations where mixed-phase clouds consisting of ice crystals and supercooled liquid droplets are constrained by global satellite observations. The higher ECS estimates are directly linked to a weakened cloud-phase feedback arising from a decreased cloud glaciation rate in a warmer climate. We point out the need for realistic representations of the supercooled liquid fraction in mixed-phase clouds in GCMs, given the sensitivity of the ECS to the cloud-phase feedback. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Ocean Heat Uptake Slows 21st Century Surface Warming Driven by Extratropical Cloud Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, W.; Maroon, E.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.

2017-12-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2, has long been used to compare climate models. In many models, ECS is well correlated with warming produced by transient forcing experiments. Modifications to cloud phase at high latitudes in a state-of-the-art climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), produce a large increase in ECS (1.5 K) via extratropical cloud feedbacks. However, only a small surface warming increase occurs in a realistic 21st century simulation including a full-depth dynamic ocean and the "business as usual" RCP8.5 emissions scenario. In fact, the increase in surface warming is only barely above the internal variability-generated range in the CESM Large Ensemble. The small change in 21st century warming is attributed to subpolar ocean heat uptake in both hemispheres. In the Southern Ocean, the mean-state circulation takes up heat while in the North Atlantic a slowdown in circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. These results show the importance of subpolar ocean heat uptake in controlling the pace of warming and demonstrate that ECS cannot be used to reliably infer transient warming when it is driven by extratropical feedbacks.

The link between outgoing longwave radiation and the altitude at which a spaceborne lidar beam is fully attenuated

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaillant de Guélis, Thibault; Chepfer, Hélène; Noel, Vincent; Guzman, Rodrigo; Dubuisson, Philippe; Winker, David M.; Kato, Seiji

2017-12-01

According to climate model simulations, the changing altitude of middle and high clouds is the dominant contributor to the positive global mean longwave cloud feedback. Nevertheless, the mechanisms of this longwave cloud altitude feedback and its magnitude have not yet been verified by observations. Accurate, stable, and long-term observations of a metric-characterizing cloud vertical distribution that are related to the longwave cloud radiative effect are needed to achieve a better understanding of the mechanism of longwave cloud altitude feedback. This study shows that the direct measurement of the altitude of atmospheric lidar opacity is a good candidate for the necessary observational metric. The opacity altitude is the level at which a spaceborne lidar beam is fully attenuated when probing an opaque cloud. By combining this altitude with the direct lidar measurement of the cloud-top altitude, we derive the effective radiative temperature of opaque clouds which linearly drives (as we will show) the outgoing longwave radiation. We find that, for an opaque cloud, a cloud temperature change of 1 K modifies its cloud radiative effect by 2 W m-2. Similarly, the longwave cloud radiative effect of optically thin clouds can be derived from their top and base altitudes and an estimate of their emissivity. We show with radiative transfer simulations that these relationships hold true at single atmospheric column scale, on the scale of the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instantaneous footprint, and at monthly mean 2° × 2° scale. Opaque clouds cover 35 % of the ice-free ocean and contribute to 73 % of the global mean cloud radiative effect. Thin-cloud coverage is 36 % and contributes 27 % of the global mean cloud radiative effect. The link between outgoing longwave radiation and the altitude at which a spaceborne lidar beam is fully attenuated provides a simple formulation of the cloud radiative effect in the longwave domain and so helps us to understand the longwave cloud altitude feedback mechanism.

Toward Better Intraseasonal and Seasonal Prediction: Verification and Evaluation of the NOGAPS Model Forecasts

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

package developed by the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP), COSP (BODAS- SALCEDO et al. 2011). COSP will convert the model hydrometers ...and infrared data at high spatial and temporal resolution. J. Hydromet ., 5, 487-503. Kay, J. E. et al., 2012: Exposing global cloud biases in the

Cloud and ice in the planetary scale circulation and in climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herman, G. F.; Houghton, D. D.; Kutzbach, J. E.; Suomi, V. E.

1984-01-01

The roles of the cryosphere, and of cloud-radiative interactions are investigated. The effects clouds and ice have in the climate system are examined. The cloud radiation research attempts explain the modes of interaction (feedback) between raditive transfer, cloud formation, and atmospheric dynamics. The role of sea ice in weather and climate is also discussed. Models are used to describe the ice and atmospheric dynamics under study.

Comparing models for IMF variation across cosmological time in Milky Way-like galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guszejnov, Dávid; Hopkins, Philip F.; Ma, Xiangcheng

2017-12-01

One of the key observations regarding the stellar initial mass function (IMF) is its near-universality in the Milky Way (MW), which provides a powerful way to constrain different star formation models that predict the IMF. However, those models are almost universally 'cloud-scale' or smaller - they take as input or simulate single molecular clouds (GMCs), clumps or cores, and predict the resulting IMF as a function of the cloud properties. Without a model for the progenitor properties of all clouds that formed the stars at different locations in the MW (including ancient stellar populations formed in high redshift, likely gas-rich dwarf progenitor galaxies that looked little like the Galaxy today), the predictions cannot be fully explored nor safely applied to 'live' cosmological calculations of the IMF in different galaxies at different cosmological times. We therefore combine a suite of high-resolution cosmological simulations (from the Feedback In Realistic Environments project), which form MW-like galaxies with reasonable star formation properties and explicitly resolve massive GMCs, with various proposed cloud-scale IMF models. We apply the models independently to every star particle formed in the simulations to synthesize the predicted IMF in the present-day galaxy. We explore models where the IMF depends on Jeans mass, sonic or 'turbulent Bonnor-Ebert' mass, fragmentation with a polytropic equation of state, or where it is self-regulated by protostellar feedback. We show that all of these models, except the feedback-regulated ones, predict far more variation (∼0.6-1 dex 1σ scatter in the IMF turnover mass) in the simulations than is observed in the MW.

Mesoscale modeling of smoke radiative feedback over the Sahel region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z.; Wang, J.; Ichoku, C. M.; Ellison, L.; Zhang, F.; Yue, Y.

2013-12-01

This study employs satellite observations and a fully-coupled meteorology-chemistry-aerosol model, Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to study the smoke radative feedback on surface energy budget, boundary layer processes, and atmospheric lapse rate in February 2008 over the Sahel region. The smoke emission inventories we use come from various sources, including but not limited to the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) developed by NRL and the Fire Energetic and Emissions Research (FEER) developed by NASA GSFC. Model performance is evaluated using numerous satellite and ground-based datasets: MODIS true color images, ground-based Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) measurements from AERONET, MODIS AOD retrievals, and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar data with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) atmospheric backscattering and extinction products. Specification of smoke injection height of 650 m in WRF-Chem yields aerosol vertical profiles that are most consistent with CALIOP observations of aerosol layer height. Statistically, 5% of the CALIPSO valid measurements of aerosols in February 2008 show aerosol layers either above the clouds or between the clouds, reinforcing the importance of the aerosol vertical distribution for quantifying aerosol impact on climate in the Sahel region. The results further show that the smoke radiative feedbacks are sensitive to assumptions of black carbon and organic carbon ratio in the particle emission inventory. Also investigated is the smoke semi-direct effect as a function of cloud fraction.

Assessment of radiative feedback in climate models using satellite observations of annual flux variation.

PubMed

Tsushima, Yoko; Manabe, Syukuro

2013-05-07

In the climate system, two types of radiative feedback are in operation. The feedback of the first kind involves the radiative damping of the vertically uniform temperature perturbation of the troposphere and Earth's surface that approximately follows the Stefan-Boltzmann law of blackbody radiation. The second kind involves the change in the vertical lapse rate of temperature, water vapor, and clouds in the troposphere and albedo of the Earth's surface. Using satellite observations of the annual variation of the outgoing flux of longwave radiation and that of reflected solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, this study estimates the so-called "gain factor," which characterizes the strength of radiative feedback of the second kind that operates on the annually varying, global-scale perturbation of temperature at the Earth's surface. The gain factor is computed not only for all sky but also for clear sky. The gain factor of so-called "cloud radiative forcing" is then computed as the difference between the two. The gain factors thus obtained are compared with those obtained from 35 models that were used for the fourth and fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Here, we show that the gain factors obtained from satellite observations of cloud radiative forcing are effective for identifying systematic biases of the feedback processes that control the sensitivity of simulated climate, providing useful information for validating and improving a climate model.

Modeling UV Radiation Feedback from Massive Stars. II. Dispersal of Star-forming Giant Molecular Clouds by Photoionization and Radiation Pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jeong-Gyu; Kim, Woong-Tae; Ostriker, Eve C.

2018-05-01

UV radiation feedback from young massive stars plays a key role in the evolution of giant molecular clouds (GMCs) by photoevaporating and ejecting the surrounding gas. We conduct a suite of radiation hydrodynamic simulations of star cluster formation in marginally bound, turbulent GMCs, focusing on the effects of photoionization and radiation pressure on regulating the net star formation efficiency (SFE) and cloud lifetime. We find that the net SFE depends primarily on the initial gas surface density, Σ0, such that the SFE increases from 4% to 51% as Σ0 increases from 13 to 1300 {M}ȯ {pc}}-2. Cloud destruction occurs within 2–10 Myr after the onset of radiation feedback, or within 0.6–4.1 freefall times (increasing with Σ0). Photoevaporation dominates the mass loss in massive, low surface density clouds, but because most photons are absorbed in an ionization-bounded Strömgren volume, the photoevaporated gas fraction is proportional to the square root of the SFE. The measured momentum injection due to thermal and radiation pressure forces is proportional to {{{Σ }}}0-0.74, and the ejection of neutrals substantially contributes to the disruption of low mass and/or high surface density clouds. We present semi-analytic models for cloud dispersal mediated by photoevaporation and by dynamical mass ejection, and show that the predicted net SFE and mass loss efficiencies are consistent with the results of our numerical simulations.

Dynamic Mesoscale Land-Atmosphere Feedbacks in Fragmented Forests in Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rastogi, D.; Baidya Roy, S.

2011-12-01

This paper investigates land-atmosphere feedbacks in disturbed rainforests of Amazonia. Deforestation along the rapidly expanding highways and road network has created the unique fishbone land cover pattern in Rondonia, a state in southwestern Amazonia. Numerical experiments and observations show that sharp gradients in land cover due to the fishbone heterogeneity triggers mesoscale circulations. These circulations significantly change the spatial pattern of local hydrometeorology, especially convection, clouds and precipitation. The primary research question now is can these changes in local hydrometeorology affect vegetation growth in the clearings. If so, that would be a clear indication that land-atmosphere feedbacks can affect vegetation recovery in fragmented forests. A computationally-efficient modeling tool consisting of a mesoscale atmospheric model dynamically coupled with a plant growth model has been specifically developed to identify the atmospheric feedback pathways. Preliminary experiments focus on the seasonal-scale feedbacks during the dry season. Results show that temperature, incoming shortwave and precipitation are the three primary drivers through which the feedbacks operate. Increasing temperature increases respiratory losses generating a positive feedback. Increased cloud cover reduces incoming PAR and photosynthesis, resulting in a positive feedback. Increased precipitation reduces water stress and promotes growth resulting in a negative feedback. The net effect is a combination of these 3 feedback loops. These findings can significantly improve our understanding of ecosystem resiliency in disturbed tropical forests.

The Diversity of Cloud Responses to Twentieth Century Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvers, Levi G.; Paynter, David; Zhao, Ming

2018-01-01

Low-level clouds are shown to be the conduit between the observed sea surface temperatures (SST) and large decadal fluctuations of the top of the atmosphere radiative imbalance. The influence of low-level clouds on the climate feedback is shown for global mean time series as well as particular geographic regions. The changes of clouds are found to be important for a midcentury period of high sensitivity and a late century period of low sensitivity. These conclusions are drawn from analysis of amip-piForcing simulations using three atmospheric general circulation models (AM2.1, AM3, and AM4.0). All three models confirm the importance of the relationship between the global climate sensitivity and the eastern Pacific trends of SST and low-level clouds. However, this work argues that the variability of the climate feedback parameter is not driven by stratocumulus-dominated regions in the eastern ocean basins, but rather by the cloudy response in the rest of the tropics.

Nonlinear Advection of Tropospheric Humidity and Cloud and Evaporation Feedbacks in the Madden-Julian Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyama, M.; Emanuel, K.; Stone, P.

2006-05-01

Despite active research on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), general circulation models (GCMs) continue to suffer from poor simulations of this tropical intraseasonal variability, and the theory on the MJO remains elusive. To assist model development and deepen our understanding, we develop a simple new model of the MJO, using the Quasiequilibrium Tropical Circulation Model of Neelin and Zeng. The MJO-like disturbance develops as a single-column instability because of cloud-radiative and surface flux feedbacks, a mechanism identified by Sobel and Gildor in their study on a tropical hot spot. Two processes contribute to the eastward movement: Nonlinear advection of the tropospheric humidity to the west, and convergence-induced moistening to the east. The key to the model disturbance is the interplay between tropospheric humidity and precipitation, moisture-convection feedback. As the humidity field propagates eastward by advection and convergence-induced moistening, the precipitation field follows. This study points to possible research areas on GCM parameterizations: 1) the effect of tropospheric humidity on moist convection; 2) the impact of downdraft-enhanced gustiness on surface heat flux; and 3) relationship between precipitation and cloud-radiative forcing.

Mesoscale modeling of smoke transport over the Southeast Asian Maritime Continent: Coupling of smoke direct radiative feedbacks below and above the low-level clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, C.; Wang, J.; Reid, J. S.

2013-12-01

The online-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to simulate the direct and semi-direct radiative impacts of smoke particles over the southeast Asian Marine Continents (MC, 10°S - 10°N, 90°E-150°E) during October 2006 when a significant El Nino event caused the highest biomass burning activity since 1997. With the use of OC (Organic Carbon) /BC (Black Carbon) ratio of 10 in the smoke emission inventory, the baseline simulation shows that the low-level clouds amplifying effect on smoke absorption led to a warming effect at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) with a domain/monthly average forcing value of ~20 Wm-2 over the islands of Borneo and Sumatra. The smoke-induced monthly average daytime heating (0.3K) that is largely confined above the low-level clouds results in the local convergence over the smoke source region. This heating-induced convergence coupled with daytime planetary boundary layer turbulent mixing, transports more smoke particles above the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), hence rendering a positive feedback. This positive feedback contrasts with the decrease of cloud fraction resulted from the combined effects of smoke heating within the cloud layer and the more stability in the boundary layer; the latter can be considered as a negative feedback in which decrease of cloud fraction weakens the heating by smoke particles above the clouds. During nighttime, the elevated smoke layer (above clouds in daytime) is decoupled from boundary layer, and the reduction of PBLH due to the residual surface cooling from the daytime lead to the accumulation of smoke particles near the surface. Because of smoke radiative extinction, on monthly basis, the amount of the solar input at the surface is reduced as large as 60 Wm-2, which lead to the decrease of sensible heat, latent heat, 2-m air temperature, and PBLH by a maximum of 20 Wm-2, 20 Wm-2, 1K, 120 m, respectively. The cloud changes over continents are mostly occurred over the islands of Sumatra and Borneo during the daytime, where the low-level cloud fraction decreases more than 10%. However, the change of local wind (include sea breeze) induced by the smoke radiative feedback leads to more convergence over Karimata Strait and south coastal area of Kalimantan during both daytime and night time; consequently, cloud fraction is increased there up to 20%. The sensitivities with different OC/BC ratio show the importance of the smoke single scattering albedo for the smoke semi-direct effects. A case study on 31 October 2006 further demonstrated a much larger (more than twice of the monthly average) feedback induced by smoke aerosols. The decreased sea breeze during big events can lead to prominent increase (40%) of low-level cloud over coastal water. Lastly, the direct and semi-direct radiative impact of smoke particles over the Southeast Asian Marine Continents is summarized as a conceptual model.

Star formation in evolving molecular clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Völschow, M.; Banerjee, R.; Körtgen, B.

2017-09-01

Molecular clouds are the principle stellar nurseries of our universe; they thus remain a focus of both observational and theoretical studies. From observations, some of the key properties of molecular clouds are well known but many questions regarding their evolution and star formation activity remain open. While numerical simulations feature a large number and complexity of involved physical processes, this plethora of effects may hide the fundamentals that determine the evolution of molecular clouds and enable the formation of stars. Purely analytical models, on the other hand, tend to suffer from rough approximations or a lack of completeness, limiting their predictive power. In this paper, we present a model that incorporates central concepts of astrophysics as well as reliable results from recent simulations of molecular clouds and their evolutionary paths. Based on that, we construct a self-consistent semi-analytical framework that describes the formation, evolution, and star formation activity of molecular clouds, including a number of feedback effects to account for the complex processes inside those objects. The final equation system is solved numerically but at much lower computational expense than, for example, hydrodynamical descriptions of comparable systems. The model presented in this paper agrees well with a broad range of observational results, showing that molecular cloud evolution can be understood as an interplay between accretion, global collapse, star formation, and stellar feedback.

Using Satellite Observations of Cloud Vertical Distribution to Improve Global Model Estimates of Cloud Radiative Effect on Key Tropospheric Oxidants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Hongyu; Crawford, James; Ham, Seung-Hee; Zhang, Bo; Kato, Seiji; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Chen, Gao; Fairlie, Duncan; Duncan, Bryan; Yantosca, Robert

2017-01-01

Clouds directly affect tropospheric photochemistry through modification of solar radiation that determines photolysis frequencies. This effect is an important component of global tropospheric chemistry-climate interaction, and its understanding is thus essential for predicting the feedback of climate change on tropospheric chemistry.

Quantified Objectives for Assessing the Contribution of Low Clouds to Climate Sensitivity and Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Genio, A. D.; Platnick, S. E.; Bennartz, R.; Klein, S. A.; Marchand, R.; Oreopoulos, L.; Pincus, R.; Wood, R.

2016-12-01

Low clouds are central to leading-order questions in climate and subseasonal weather predictability, and are key to the NRC panel report's goals "to understand the signals of the Earth system under a changing climate" and "for improved models and model projections." To achieve both goals requires a mix of continuity observations to document the components of the changing climate and improvements in retrievals of low cloud and boundary layer dynamical/thermodynamic properties to ensure process-oriented observations that constrain the parameterized physics of the models. We discuss four climate/weather objectives that depend sensitively on understanding the behavior of low clouds: 1. Reduce uncertainty in GCM-inferred climate sensitivity by 50% by constraining subtropical low cloud feedbacks. 2. Eliminate the GCM Southern Ocean shortwave flux bias and its effect on cloud feedback and the position of the midlatitude storm track. 3. Eliminate the double Intertropical Convergence Zone bias in GCMs and its potential effects on tropical precipitation over land and the simulation and prediction of El Niño. 4. Increase the subseasonal predictability of tropical warm pool precipitation from 20 to 30 days. We envision advances in three categories of observations that would be highly beneficial for reaching these goals: 1. More accurate observations will facilitate more thorough evaluation of clouds in GCMs. 2. Better observations of the links between cloud properties and the environmental state will be used as the foundation for parameterization improvements. 3. Sufficiently long and higher quality records of cloud properties and environmental state will constrain low cloud feedback purely observationally. To accomplish this, the greatest need is to replace A-Train instruments, which are nearing end-of-life, with enhanced versions. The requirements are sufficient horizontal and vertical resolution to capture boundary layer cloud and thermodynamic spatial structure; more accurate determination of cloud condensate profiles and optical properties; near-coincident observations to permit multi-instrument retrievals and association with dynamic and thermodynamic structure; global coverage; and, for long-term monitoring, measurement and orbit stability and sufficient mission duration.

Projected Regime Shift in Arctic Cloud and Water Vapor Feedbacks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Yonghua; Miller, James R.; Francis, Jennifer; Russel, Gary L.

2011-01-01

The Arctic climate is changing faster than any other large-scale region on Earth. A variety of positive feedback mechanisms are responsible for the amplification, most of which are linked with changes in snow and ice cover, surface temperature (T(sub s)), atmospheric water vapor (WV), and cloud properties. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, air temperature and water vapor content also increase, leading to a warmer surface and ice loss, which further enhance evaporation and WV. Many details of these interrelated feedbacks are poorly understood, yet are essential for understanding the pace and regional variations in future Arctic change. We use a global climate model (Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Atmosphere-Ocean Model) to examine several components of these feedbacks, how they vary by season, and how they are projected to change through the 21st century. One positive feedback begins with an increase in T(sub s) that produces an increase in WV, which in turn increases the downward longwave flux (DLF) and T(sub s), leading to further evaporation. Another associates the expected increases in cloud cover and optical thickness with increasing DLF and T(sub s). We examine the sensitivities between DLF and other climate variables in these feedbacks and find that they are strongest in the non-summer seasons, leading to the largest amplification in Ts during these months. Later in the 21st century, however, DLF becomes less sensitive to changes in WV and cloud optical thickness, as they cause the atmosphere to emit longwave radiation more nearly as a black body. This regime shift in sensitivity implies that the amplified pace of Arctic change relative to the northern hemisphere could relax in the future.

Enhanced PM2.5 pollution in China due to aerosol-cloud interactions.

PubMed

Zhao, Bin; Liou, Kuo-Nan; Gu, Yu; Li, Qinbin; Jiang, Jonathan H; Su, Hui; He, Cenlin; Tseng, Hsien-Liang R; Wang, Shuxiao; Liu, Run; Qi, Ling; Lee, Wei-Liang; Hao, Jiming

2017-06-30

Aerosol-cloud interactions (aerosol indirect effects) play an important role in regional meteorological variations, which could further induce feedback on regional air quality. While the impact of aerosol-cloud interactions on meteorology and climate has been extensively studied, their feedback on air quality remains unclear. Using a fully coupled meteorology-chemistry model, we find that increased aerosol loading due to anthropogenic activities in China substantially increases column cloud droplet number concentration and liquid water path (LWP), which further leads to a reduction in the downward shortwave radiation at surface, surface air temperature and planetary boundary layer (PBL) height. The shallower PBL and accelerated cloud chemistry due to larger LWP in turn enhance the concentrations of particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) by up to 33.2 μg m -3 (25.1%) and 11.0 μg m -3 (12.5%) in January and July, respectively. Such a positive feedback amplifies the changes in PM 2.5 concentrations, indicating an additional air quality benefit under effective pollution control policies but a penalty for a region with a deterioration in PM 2.5 pollution. Additionally, we show that the cloud processing of aerosols, including wet scavenging and cloud chemistry, could also have substantial effects on PM 2.5 concentrations.

An evolutionary model for collapsing molecular clouds and their star formation activity. II. Mass dependence of the star formation rate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zamora-Avilés, Manuel; Vázquez-Semadeni, Enrique

We discuss the evolution and dependence on cloud mass of the star formation rate (SFR) and efficiency (SFE) of star-forming molecular clouds (MCs) within the scenario that clouds are undergoing global collapse and that the SFR is controlled by ionization feedback. We find that low-mass clouds (M {sub max} ≲ 10{sup 4} M {sub ☉}) spend most of their evolution at low SFRs, but end their lives with a mini-burst, reaching a peak SFR ∼10{sup 4} M {sub ☉} Myr{sup –1}, although their time-averaged SFR is only (SFR) ∼ 10{sup 2} M {sub ☉} Myr{sup –1}. The corresponding efficiencies aremore » SFE{sub final} ≲ 60% and (SFE) ≲ 1%. For more massive clouds (M {sub max} ≳ 10{sup 5} M {sub ☉}), the SFR first increases and then reaches a plateau because the clouds are influenced by stellar feedback since earlier in their evolution. As a function of cloud mass, (SFR) and (SFE) are well represented by the fits (SFR) ≈ 100(1 + M {sub max}/1.4 × 10{sup 5} M {sub ☉}){sup 1.68} M {sub ☉} Myr{sup –1} and (SFE) ≈ 0.03(M {sub max}/2.5 × 10{sup 5} M {sub ☉}){sup 0.33}, respectively. Moreover, the SFR of our model clouds follows closely the SFR-dense gas mass relation recently found by Lada et al. during the epoch when their instantaneous SFEs are comparable to those of the clouds considered by those authors. Collectively, a Monte Carlo integration of the model-predicted SFR(M) over a Galactic giant molecular cloud mass spectrum yields values for the total Galactic SFR that are within half an order of magnitude of the relation obtained by Gao and Solomon. Our results support the scenario that star-forming MCs may be in global gravitational collapse and that the low observed values of the SFR and SFE are a result of the interruption of each SF episode, caused primarily by the ionizing feedback from massive stars.« less

Tropical cloud feedbacks and natural variability of climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, R. L.; Del Genio, A. D.

1994-01-01

Simulations of natural variability by two general circulation models (GCMs) are examined. One GCM is a sector model, allowing relatively rapid integration without simplification of the model physics, which would potentially exclude mechanisms of variability. Two mechanisms are found in which tropical surface temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) vary on interannual and longer timescales. Both are related to changes in cloud cover that modulate SST through the surface radiative flux. Over the equatorial ocean, SST and surface temperature vary on an interannual timescale, which is determined by the magnitude of the associated cloud cover anomalies. Over the subtropical ocean, variations in low cloud cover drive SST variations. In the sector model, the variability has no preferred timescale, but instead is characterized by a 'red' spectrum with increasing power at longer periods. In the terrestrial GCM, SST variability associated with low cloud anomalies has a decadal timescale and is the dominant form of global temperature variability. Both GCMs are coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, where dynamical heat transports are prescribed, thus filtering out El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and thermohaline circulation variability. The occurrence of variability in the absence of dynamical ocean feedbacks suggests that climatic variability on long timescales can arise from atmospheric processes alone.

Forcings and feedbacks in the GeoMIP ensemble for a reduction in solar irradiance and increase in CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huneeus, Nicolas; Boucher, Olivier; Alterskjær, Kari; Cole, Jason N. S.; Curry, Charles L.; Ji, Duoying; Jones, Andy; Kravitz, Ben; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Moore, John C.; Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Rasch, Phil; Robock, Alan; Singh, Balwinder; Schmidt, Hauke; Schulz, Michael; Tilmes, Simone; Watanabe, Shingo; Yoon, Jin-Ho

2014-05-01

The effective radiative forcings (including rapid adjustments) and feedbacks associated with an instantaneous quadrupling of the preindustrial CO2 concentration and a counterbalancing reduction of the solar constant are investigated in the context of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The forcing and feedback parameters of the net energy flux, as well as its different components at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface, were examined in 10 Earth System Models to better understand the impact of solar radiation management on the energy budget. In spite of their very different nature, the feedback parameter and its components at the TOA and surface are almost identical for the two forcing mechanisms, not only in the global mean but also in their geographical distributions. This conclusion holds for each of the individual models despite intermodel differences in how feedbacks affect the energy budget. This indicates that the climate sensitivity parameter is independent of the forcing (when measured as an effective radiative forcing). We also show the existence of a large contribution of the cloudy-sky component to the shortwave effective radiative forcing at the TOA suggesting rapid cloud adjustments to a change in solar irradiance. In addition, the models present significant diversity in the spatial distribution of the shortwave feedback parameter in cloudy regions, indicating persistent uncertainties in cloud feedback mechanisms.

A Digital Map From External Forcing to the Final Surface Warming Pattern and its Seasonal Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, M.

2015-12-01

Historically, only the thermodynamic processes (e.g., water vapor, cloud, surface albedo, and atmospheric lapse rate) that directly influence the top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy flux balance are considered in climate feedback analysis. One of my recent research areas is to develop a new framework for climate feedback analysis that explicitly takes into consideration not only the thermodynamic processes that the directly influence the TOA radiative energy flux balance but also the local dynamical (e.g., evaporation, surface sensible heat flux, vertical convections etc) and non-local dynamical (large-scale horizontal energy transport) processes in aiming to explain the warming asymmetry between high and low latitudes, between ocean and land, and between the surface and atmosphere. In the last 5-6 years, we have developed a coupled atmosphere-surface climate feedback-response analysis method (CFRAM) as a new framework for estimating climate feedback and sensitivity in coupled general circulation models with a full physical parameterization package. In the CFRAM, the isolation of partial temperature changes due to an external forcing alone or an individual feedback is achieved by solving the linearized infrared radiation transfer model subject to individual energy flux perturbations (external or due to feedbacks). The partial temperature changes are addable and their sum is equal to the (total) temperature change (in the linear sense). The CFRAM is used to isolate the partial temperature changes due to the external forcing, due to water vapor feedback, clouds, surface albedo, local vertical convection, and non-local atmospheric dynamical feedbacks, as well as oceanic heat storage. It has been shown that seasonal variations in the cloud feedback, surface albedo feedback, and ocean heat storage/dynamics feedback, directly caused by the strong annual cycle of insolation, contribute primarily to the large seasonal variation of polar warming. Furthermore, the CO2 forcing, and water vapor and atmospheric dynamics feedbacks add to the maximum polar warming in fall/winter.

Cloud Feedbacks on Greenhouse Warming in a Multi-Scale Modeling Framework with a Higher-Order Turbulence Closure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheng, Anning; Xu, Kuan-Man

2015-01-01

Five-year simulation experiments with a multi-scale modeling Framework (MMF) with a advanced intermediately prognostic higher-order turbulence closure (IPHOC) in its cloud resolving model (CRM) component, also known as SPCAM-IPHOC (super parameterized Community Atmospheric Model), are performed to understand the fast tropical (30S-30N) cloud response to an instantaneous doubling of CO2 concentration with SST held fixed at present-day values. SPCAM-IPHOC has substantially improved the low-level representation compared with SPCAM. It is expected that the cloud responses to greenhouse warming in SPCAM-IPHOC is more realistic. The change of rising motion, surface precipitation, cloud cover, and shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing in SPCAM-IPHOC from the greenhouse warming will be presented in the presentation.

Time-Dependent Cryospheric Longwave Surface Emissivity Feedback in the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Chaincy; Feldman, Daniel R.; Huang, Xianglei; Flanner, Mark; Yang, Ping; Chen, Xiuhong

2018-01-01

Frozen and unfrozen surfaces exhibit different longwave surface emissivities with different spectral characteristics, and outgoing longwave radiation and cooling rates are reduced for unfrozen scenes relative to frozen ones. Here physically realistic modeling of spectrally resolved surface emissivity throughout the coupled model components of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is advanced, and implications for model high-latitude biases and feedbacks are evaluated. It is shown that despite a surface emissivity feedback amplitude that is, at most, a few percent of the surface albedo feedback amplitude, the inclusion of realistic, harmonized longwave, spectrally resolved emissivity information in CESM1.2.2 reduces wintertime Arctic surface temperature biases from -7.2 ± 0.9 K to -1.1 ± 1.2 K, relative to observations. The bias reduction is most pronounced in the Arctic Ocean, a region for which Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) models exhibit the largest mean wintertime cold bias, suggesting that persistent polar temperature biases can be lessened by including this physically based process across model components. The ice emissivity feedback of CESM1.2.2 is evaluated under a warming scenario with a kernel-based approach, and it is found that emissivity radiative kernels exhibit water vapor and cloud cover dependence, thereby varying spatially and decreasing in magnitude over the course of the scenario from secular changes in atmospheric thermodynamics and cloud patterns. Accounting for the temporally varying radiative responses can yield diagnosed feedbacks that differ in sign from those obtained from conventional climatological feedback analysis methods.

Modeled Impact of Cirrus Cloud Increases Along Aircraft Flight Paths

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, David; Lonergan, P.; Shah, K.

1999-01-01

The potential impact of contrails and alterations in the lifetime of background cirrus due to subsonic airplane water and aerosol emissions has been investigated in a set of experiments using the GISS GCM connected to a q-flux ocean. Cirrus clouds at a height of 12-15km, with an optical thickness of 0.33, were input to the model "x" percentage of clear-sky occasions along subsonic aircraft flight paths, where x is varied from .05% to 6%. Two types of experiments were performed: one with the percentage cirrus cloud increase independent of flight density, as long as a certain minimum density was exceeded; the other with the percentage related to the density of fuel expenditure. The overall climate impact was similar with the two approaches, due to the feedbacks of the climate system. Fifty years were run for eight such experiments, with the following conclusions based on the stable results from years 30-50 for each. The experiments show that adding cirrus to the upper troposphere results in a stabilization of the atmosphere, which leads to some decrease in cloud cover at levels below the insertion altitude. Considering then the total effect on upper level cloud cover (above 5 km altitude), the equilibrium global mean temperature response shows that altering high level clouds by 1% changes the global mean temperature by 0.43C. The response is highly linear (linear correlation coefficient of 0.996) for high cloud cover changes between 0. 1% and 5%. The effect is amplified in the Northern Hemisphere, more so with greater cloud cover change. The temperature effect maximizes around 10 km (at greater than 40C warming with a 4.8% increase in upper level clouds), again more so with greater warming. The high cloud cover change shows the flight path influence most clearly with the smallest warming magnitudes; with greater warming, the model feedbacks introduce a strong tropical response. Similarly, the surface temperature response is dominated by the feedbacks, and shows little geographical relationship to the high cloud input. Considering whether these effects would be observable, changing upper level cloud cover by as little as 0.4% produces warming greater than 2 standard deviations in the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channels 4, 2 and 2r, in flight path regions and in the subtropics. Despite the simplified nature of these experiments, the results emphasize the sensitivity of the modeled climate to high level cloud cover changes, and thus the potential ability of aircraft to influence climate by altering clouds in the upper troposphere.

An early warning system for high climate sensitivity? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierrehumbert, R.

2010-12-01

The scientific case for the clear and present danger of global warming has been unassailable at least since the release of the Charney Report more than thirty years ago, if not longer. While prompt action to begin decarbonizing energy systems could still head off much of the potential warming, it is distinctly possible that emissions will continue unabated in the coming decades, leading to a doubling or more of pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentrations. At present, we are in the unenviable position of not even knowing how bad things will get if this scenario comes to pass, because of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. If climate sensitivity is high, then the consequences will be dire, perhaps even catastrophic. As the world continues to warm in response to continued carbon dioxide emissions, will we at least be able to monitor the climate and provide an early warning that the planet is on a high-sensitivity track, if such turns out to be the case? At what point will we actually know the climate sensitivity? It has long been recognized that the prime contributor to uncertainty in climate sensitivity is uncertainty in cloud feedbacks. Study of paleoclimate and climate of the past century has not been able to resolve which models do cloud feedback most correctly, because of uncertainties in radiative forcing. In this talk, I will discuss monitoring requirements, and analysis techniques, that might have the potential to determine which climate models most faithfully represent climate feedbacks, and thus determine which models provide the best estimate of climate sensitivity. The endeavor is complicated by the distinction between transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity. I will discuss the particular challenges posed by this issue, particularly in light of recent indications that the pattern of ocean heat storage may lead to different cloud feedbacks in the transient warming stage than apply once the system has reached equilibrium. Apart from this problem, the transient nature of climate response driven by increasing CO2 requires careful monitoring of ocean heat storage as well as top-of-atmosphere radiative budgets, if climate sensitivity is to be estimated. Water vapor feedback is not considered as uncertain as cloud feedback, but there is still a considerable potential for surprises. I will discuss microwave monitoring requirements for tracking water vapor feedback. At the other extreme, the longer term feedbacks that contribute to Earth System Sensitivity are even more uncertain than cloud feedbacks, particularly with regard to the terrestrial carbon cycle. Prospects for obtaining an early warning of a PETM-type organic carbon release seem bleak. Finally, I will discuss the particular challenge of obtaining an early warning of high climate sensitivity in the case that the climate system has a bifurcation.

The cloud-radiative processes and its modulation by sea-ice cover and stability as derived from a merged C3M Data product.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nag, B.

2016-12-01

The polar regions of the world constitute an important sector in the global energy balance. Among other effects responsible for the change in the sea-ice cover like ocean circulation and ice-albedo feedback, the cloud-radiation feedback also plays a vital role in modulation of the Arctic environment. However the annual cycle of the clouds is very poorly represented in current global circulation models. This study aims to take advantage of a merged C3M data (CALIPSO, CloudSat, CERES, and MODIS) product from the NASA's A-Train Series to explore the sea-ice and atmospheric conditions in the Arctic on a spatial coverage spanning 70N to 80N. This study is aimed at the interactions or the feedbacks processes among sea-ice, clouds and the atmosphere. Using a composite approach based on a classification due to surface type, it is found that limitation of the water vapour influx from the surface due to change in phase at the surface featuring open oceans or marginal sea-ice cover to complete sea-ice cover is a major determinant in the modulation of the atmospheric moisture and its impacts. The impact of the cloud-radiative effects in the Arctic is found to vary with sea-ice cover and seasonally. The effect of the marginal sea-ice cover becomes more and more pronounced in the winter. The seasonal variation of the dependence of the atmospheric moisture on the surface and the subsequent feedback effects is controlled by the atmospheric stability measured as a difference between the potential temperature at the surface and the 700hPa level. It is found that a stronger stability cover in the winter is responsible for the longwave cloud radiative feedback in winter which is missing during the summer. A regional analysis of the same suggests that most of the depiction of the variations observed is contributed from the North Atlantic region.

Isolating signatures of major cloud-cloud collisions using position-velocity diagrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haworth, T. J.; Tasker, E. J.; Fukui, Y.; Torii, K.; Dale, J. E.; Shima, K.; Takahira, K.; Habe, A.; Hasegawa, K.

2015-06-01

Collisions between giant molecular clouds are a potential mechanism for triggering the formation of massive stars, or even super star clusters. The trouble is identifying this process observationally and distinguishing it from other mechanisms. We produce synthetic position-velocity diagrams from models of cloud-cloud collisions, non-interacting clouds along the line of sight, clouds with internal radiative feedback and a more complex cloud evolving in a galactic disc, to try and identify unique signatures of collision. We find that a broad bridge feature connecting two intensity peaks, spatially correlated but separated in velocity, is a signature of a high-velocity cloud-cloud collision. We show that the broad bridge feature is resilient to the effects of radiative feedback, at least to around 2.5 Myr after the formation of the first massive (ionizing) star. However for a head-on 10 km s-1 collision, we find that this will only be observable from 20 to 30 per cent of viewing angles. Such broad-bridge features have been identified towards M20, a very young region of massive star formation that was concluded to be a site of cloud-cloud collision by Torii et al., and also towards star formation in the outer Milky Way by Izumi et al.

Collaborative Research: Quantifying the Uncertainties of Aerosol Indirect Effects and Impacts on Decadal-Scale Climate Variability in NCAR CAM5 and CESM1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nenes, Athanasios

The goal of this proposed project is to assess the climatic importance and sensitivity of aerosol indirect effect (AIE) to cloud and aerosol processes and feedbacks, which include organic aerosol hygroscopicity, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation kinetics, Giant CCN, cloud-scale entrainment, ice nucleation in mixed-phase and cirrus clouds, and treatment of subgrid variability of vertical velocity. A key objective was to link aerosol, cloud microphysics and dynamics feedbacks in CAM5 with a suite of internally consistent and integrated parameterizations that provide the appropriate degrees of freedom to capture the various aspects of the aerosol indirect effect. The proposal integrated newmore » parameterization elements into the cloud microphysics, moist turbulence and aerosol modules used by the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). The CAM5 model was then used to systematically quantify the uncertainties of aerosol indirect effects through a series of sensitivity tests with present-day and preindustrial aerosol emissions. New parameterization elements were developed as a result of these efforts, and new diagnostic tools & methodologies were also developed to quantify the impacts of aerosols on clouds and climate within fully coupled models. Observations were used to constrain key uncertainties in the aerosol-cloud links. Advanced sensitivity tools were developed and implements to probe the drivers of cloud microphysical variability with unprecedented temporal and spatial scale. All these results have been published in top and high impact journals (or are in the final stages of publication). This proposal has also supported a number of outstanding graduate students.« less

Interpretation of snow-climate feedback as produced by 17 general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Zhang, M.-H.; Potter, G. L.; Blanchet, J.-P.; Chalita, S.; Colman, R.; Dazlich, D. A.; Del Genio, A. D.; Lacis, A. A.; Dymnikov, V.

1991-01-01

Snow feedback is expected to amplify global warming caused by increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The conventional explanation is that a warmer earth will have less snow cover, resulting in a darker planet that absorbs more solar radiation. An intercomparison of 17 general circulation models, for which perturbations of sea surface temperature were used as a surrogate climate change, suggests that this explanation is overly simplistic. The results instead indicate that additional amplification or moderation may be caused both by cloud interactions and longwave radiation. One measure of this net effect of snow feedback was found to differ markedly among the 17 climate models, ranging from weak negative feedback in some models to strong positive feedback in others.

Mixed-phase cloud physics and Southern Ocean cloud feedback in climate models

DOE PAGES

McCoy, Daniel T.; Hartmann, Dennis L.; Zelinka, Mark D.; ...

2015-08-21

Increasing optical depth poleward of 45° is a robust response to warming in global climate models. Much of this cloud optical depth increase has been hypothesized to be due to transitions from ice-dominated to liquid-dominated mixed-phase cloud. In this study, the importance of liquid-ice partitioning for the optical depth feedback is quantified for 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. All models show a monotonic partitioning of ice and liquid as a function of temperature, but the temperature at which ice and liquid are equally mixed (the glaciation temperature) varies by as much as 40 K across models. Modelsmore » that have a higher glaciation temperature are found to have a smaller climatological liquid water path (LWP) and condensed water path and experience a larger increase in LWP as the climate warms. The ice-liquid partitioning curve of each model may be used to calculate the response of LWP to warming. It is found that the repartitioning between ice and liquid in a warming climate contributes at least 20% to 80% of the increase in LWP as the climate warms, depending on model. Intermodel differences in the climatological partitioning between ice and liquid are estimated to contribute at least 20% to the intermodel spread in the high-latitude LWP response in the mixed-phase region poleward of 45°S. As a result, it is hypothesized that a more thorough evaluation and constraint of global climate model mixed-phase cloud parameterizations and validation of the total condensate and ice-liquid apportionment against observations will yield a substantial reduction in model uncertainty in the high-latitude cloud response to warming.« less

Desert dust suppressing precipitation: A possible desertification feedback loop

PubMed Central

Rosenfeld, Daniel; Rudich, Yinon; Lahav, Ronen

2001-01-01

The effect of desert dust on cloud properties and precipitation has so far been studied solely by using theoretical models, which predict that rainfall would be enhanced. Here we present observations showing the contrary; the effect of dust on cloud properties is to inhibit precipitation. Using satellite and aircraft observations we show that clouds forming within desert dust contain small droplets and produce little precipitation by drop coalescence. Measurement of the size distribution and the chemical analysis of individual Saharan dust particles collected in such a dust storm suggest a possible mechanism for the diminished rainfall. The detrimental impact of dust on rainfall is smaller than that caused by smoke from biomass burning or anthropogenic air pollution, but the large abundance of desert dust in the atmosphere renders it important. The reduction of precipitation from clouds affected by desert dust can cause drier soil, which in turn raises more dust, thus providing a possible feedback loop to further decrease precipitation. Furthermore, anthropogenic changes of land use exposing the topsoil can initiate such a desertification feedback process. PMID:11353821

Observational estimation of radiative feedback to surface air temperature over Northern High Latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Jiwon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Kim, WonMoo; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.

2018-01-01

The high-latitude climate system contains complicated, but largely veiled physical feedback processes. Climate predictions remain uncertain, especially for the Northern High Latitudes (NHL; north of 60°N), and observational constraint on climate modeling is vital. This study estimates local radiative feedbacks for NHL based on the CERES/Terra satellite observations during March 2000-November 2014. The local shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative feedback parameters are calculated from linear regression of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere on surface air temperatures. These parameters are estimated by the de-seasonalization and 12-month moving average of the radiative fluxes over NHL. The estimated magnitudes of the SW and the LW radiative feedbacks in NHL are 1.88 ± 0.73 and 2.38 ± 0.59 W m-2 K-1, respectively. The parameters are further decomposed into individual feedback components associated with surface albedo, water vapor, lapse rate, and clouds, as a product of the change in climate variables from ERA-Interim reanalysis estimates and their pre-calculated radiative kernels. The results reveal the significant role of clouds in reducing the surface albedo feedback (1.13 ± 0.44 W m-2 K-1 in the cloud-free condition, and 0.49 ± 0.30 W m-2 K-1 in the all-sky condition), while the lapse rate feedback is predominant in LW radiation (1.33 ± 0.18 W m-2 K-1). However, a large portion of the local SW and LW radiative feedbacks were not simply explained by the sum of these individual feedbacks.

Dispersal of Giant Molecular Clouds by Photoionization and Radiation Pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jeong-Gyu; Kim, Woong-Tae; Ostriker, Eve C.

2018-01-01

UV radiation feedback from young massive stars plays a key role in the evolution of giant molecular clouds (GMCs) by forming HII regions and driving their expansion. We present the results of radiation hydrodynamic simulations of star cluster formation in turbulent GMCs, focusing on the effects of photoionization and radiation pressure on regulating the net star formation efficiency (SFE) and lifetime of clouds. We find that the net SFE depends primarily on the initial gas surface density, $\\Sigma_0$, such that the net SFE increases from 4% to 50% as $\\Sigma_0$ increases from $20\\,M_{\\odot}\\,{\\rm pc}^{-2}$ to $1300\\,M_{\\odot}\\,{\\rm pc}^{-2}$. Cloud dispersal occurs within $10\\,{\\rm Myr}$ after the onset of radiation feedback, or within 0.7--4.0 free-fall times that increases with $\\Sigma_0$. Photoionization plays a dominant role in destroying molecular clouds typical of the Milky Way, while radiation pressure takes over in massive, dense clouds. Based on the analysis of mass loss processes by photoevaporation or momentum injection, we develop a semi-analytic model for cloud dispersal and compare it with the numerical results.

Arctic energy budget in relation to sea-ice variability on monthly to annual time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krikken, Folmer; Hazeleger, Wilco

2015-04-01

The strong decrease in Arctic sea-ice in recent years has triggered a strong interest in Arctic sea-ice predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. Hence, it is key to understand physical processes that provide enhanced predictability beyond persistence of sea ice anomalies. The authors report on an analysis of natural variability of Arctic sea-ice from an energy budget perspective, using 15 CMIP5 climate models, and comparing these results to atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses data. We quantify the persistence of sea ice anomalies and the cross-correlation with the surface and top energy budget components. The Arctic energy balance components primarily indicate the important role of the seasonal sea-ice albedo feedback, in which sea-ice anomalies in the melt season reemerge in the growth season. This is a robust anomaly reemergence mechanism among all 15 climate models. The role of ocean lies mainly in storing heat content anomalies in spring, and releasing them in autumn. Ocean heat flux variations only play a minor role. The role of clouds is further investigated. We demonstrate that there is no direct atmospheric response of clouds to spring sea-ice anomalies, but a delayed response is evident in autumn. Hence, there is no cloud-ice feedback in late spring and summer, but there is a cloud-ice feedback in autumn, which strengthens the ice-albedo feedback. Anomalies in insolation are positively correlated with sea-ice variability. This is primarily a result of reduced multiple-reflection of insolation due to an albedo decrease. This effect counteracts the sea-ice albedo effect up to 50%. ERA-Interim and ORAS4 confirm the main findings from the climate models.

Climate Model Evaluation using New Datasets from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loeb, Norman G.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Doelling, David R.

2008-01-01

There are some in the science community who believe that the response of the climate system to anthropogenic radiative forcing is unpredictable and we should therefore call off the quest . The key limitation in climate predictability is associated with cloud feedback. Narrowing the uncertainty in cloud feedback (and therefore climate sensitivity) requires optimal use of the best available observations to evaluate and improve climate model processes and constrain climate model simulations over longer time scales. The Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a satellite-based program that provides global cloud, aerosol and radiative flux observations for improving our understanding of cloud-aerosol-radiation feedbacks in the Earth s climate system. CERES is the successor to the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), which has widely been used to evaluate climate models both at short time scales (e.g., process studies) and at decadal time scales. A CERES instrument flew on the TRMM satellite and captured the dramatic 1998 El Nino, and four other CERES instruments are currently flying aboard the Terra and Aqua platforms. Plans are underway to fly the remaining copy of CERES on the upcoming NPP spacecraft (mid-2010 launch date). Every aspect of CERES represents a significant improvement over ERBE. While both CERES and ERBE measure broadband radiation, CERES calibration is a factor of 2 better than ERBE. In order to improve the characterization of clouds and aerosols within a CERES footprint, we use coincident higher-resolution imager observations (VIRS, MODIS or VIIRS) to provide a consistent cloud-aerosol-radiation dataset at climate accuracy. Improved radiative fluxes are obtained by using new CERES-derived Angular Distribution Models (ADMs) for converting measured radiances to fluxes. CERES radiative fluxes are a factor of 2 more accurate than ERBE overall, but the improvement by cloud type and at high latitudes can be as high as a factor of 5. Diurnal cycles are explicitly resolved by merging geostationary satellite observations with CERES and MODIS. Atmospheric state data are provided from a frozen version of the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office- Data Assimilation System at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. In addition to improving the accuracy of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes, CERES also produces radiative fluxes at the surface and at several levels in the atmosphere using radiative transfer modeling, constrained at the TOA by CERES (ERBE was limited to the TOA). In all, CERES uses 11 instruments on 7 spacecraft all integrated to obtain climate accuracy in TOA to surface fluxes. This presentation will provide an overview of several new CERES datasets of interest to the climate community (including a new adjusted TOA flux dataset constrained by estimates of heat storage in the Earth system), show direct comparisons between CERES ad ERBE, and provide a detailed error analysis of CERES fluxes at various time and space scales. We discuss how observations can be used to reduce uncertainties in cloud feedback and climate sensitivity and strongly argue why we should NOT "call off the quest".

MJO prediction skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, S. W.; Lim, Y.; Kim, D.

2017-12-01

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, provides the primary source of tropical and extratropical predictability on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. To better understand its predictability, this study conducts quantitative evaluation of MJO prediction skill in the state-of-the-art operational models participating in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction project. Based on bivariate correlation coefficient of 0.5, the S2S models exhibit MJO prediction skill ranging from 12 to 36 days. These prediction skills are affected by both the MJO amplitude and phase errors, the latter becoming more important with forecast lead times. Consistent with previous studies, the MJO events with stronger initial amplitude are typically better predicted. However, essentially no sensitivity to the initial MJO phase is observed. Overall MJO prediction skill and its inter-model spread are further related with the model mean biases in moisture fields and longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks. In most models, a dry bias quickly builds up in the deep tropics, especially across the Maritime Continent, weakening horizontal moisture gradient. This likely dampens the organization and propagation of MJO. Most S2S models also underestimate the longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks in the tropics, which may affect the maintenance of the MJO convective envelop. In general, the models with a smaller bias in horizontal moisture gradient and longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks show a higher MJO prediction skill, suggesting that improving those processes would enhance MJO prediction skill.

Implementation of aerosol-cloud interactions in the regional atmosphere-aerosol model COSMO-MUSCAT(5.0) and evaluation using satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dipu, Sudhakar; Quaas, Johannes; Wolke, Ralf; Stoll, Jens; Mühlbauer, Andreas; Sourdeval, Odran; Salzmann, Marc; Heinold, Bernd; Tegen, Ina

2017-06-01

The regional atmospheric model Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) coupled to the Multi-Scale Chemistry Aerosol Transport model (MUSCAT) is extended in this work to represent aerosol-cloud interactions. Previously, only one-way interactions (scavenging of aerosol and in-cloud chemistry) and aerosol-radiation interactions were included in this model. The new version allows for a microphysical aerosol effect on clouds. For this, we use the optional two-moment cloud microphysical scheme in COSMO and the online-computed aerosol information for cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (Cccn), replacing the constant Cccn profile. In the radiation scheme, we have implemented a droplet-size-dependent cloud optical depth, allowing now for aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions. To evaluate the models with satellite data, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observation Simulator Package (COSP) has been implemented. A case study has been carried out to understand the effects of the modifications, where the modified modeling system is applied over the European domain with a horizontal resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°. To reduce the complexity in aerosol-cloud interactions, only warm-phase clouds are considered. We found that the online-coupled aerosol introduces significant changes for some cloud microphysical properties. The cloud effective radius shows an increase of 9.5 %, and the cloud droplet number concentration is reduced by 21.5 %.

The Influence of Sea Ice on Arctic Low Cloud Properties and Radiative Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Patrick C.

2015-01-01

The Arctic is one of the most climatically sensitive regions of the Earth. Climate models robustly project the Arctic to warm 2-3 times faster than the global mean surface temperature, termed polar warming amplification (PWA), but also display the widest range of surface temperature projections in this region. The response of the Arctic to increased CO2 modulates the response in tropical and extra-tropical regions through teleconnections in the atmospheric circulation. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in the northern mid-latitudes, for example, has been linked to the change in the background equator-to-pole temperature gradient implied by PWA. Understanding the Arctic climate system is therefore important for predicting global climate change. The ice albedo feedback is the primary mechanism driving PWA, however cloud and dynamical feedbacks significantly contribute. These feedback mechanisms, however, do not operate independently. How do clouds respond to variations in sea ice? This critical question is addressed by combining sea ice, cloud, and radiation observations from satellites, including CERES, CloudSAT, CALIPSO, MODIS, and microwave radiometers, to investigate sea ice-cloud interactions at the interannual timescale in the Arctic. Cloud characteristics are strongly tied to the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic state. Therefore, the sensitivity of Arctic cloud characteristics, vertical distribution and optical properties, to sea ice anomalies is computed within atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic regimes. Results indicate that the cloud response to changes in sea ice concentration differs significantly between atmospheric state regimes. This suggests that (1) the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics and (2) the characteristics of the marginal ice zone are important for determining the seasonal forcing by cloud on sea ice variability.

Comparison of Ice Cloud Particle Sizes Retrieved from Satellite Data Derived from In Situ Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, Qingyuan; Rossow, William B.; Chou, Joyce; Welch, Ronald M.

1997-01-01

Cloud microphysical parameterizations have attracted a great deal of attention in recent years due to their effect on cloud radiative properties and cloud-related hydrological processes in large-scale models. The parameterization of cirrus particle size has been demonstrated as an indispensable component in the climate feedback analysis. Therefore, global-scale, long-term observations of cirrus particle sizes are required both as a basis of and as a validation of parameterizations for climate models. While there is a global scale, long-term survey of water cloud droplet sizes (Han et al.), there is no comparable study for cirrus ice crystals. This study is an effort to supply such a data set.

Observational Constraints on Cloud Feedbacks: The Role of Active Satellite Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winker, David; Chepfer, Helene; Noel, Vincent; Cai, Xia

2017-11-01

Cloud profiling from active lidar and radar in the A-train satellite constellation has significantly advanced our understanding of clouds and their role in the climate system. Nevertheless, the response of clouds to a warming climate remains one of the largest uncertainties in predicting climate change and for the development of adaptions to change. Both observation of long-term changes and observational constraints on the processes responsible for those changes are necessary. We review recent progress in our understanding of the cloud feedback problem. Capabilities and advantages of active sensors for observing clouds are discussed, along with the importance of active sensors for deriving constraints on cloud feedbacks as an essential component of a global climate observing system.

Behavior of predicted convective clouds and precipitation in the high-resolution Unified Model over the Indian summer monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayakumar, A.; Sethunadh, Jisesh; Rakhi, R.; Arulalan, T.; Mohandas, Saji; Iyengar, Gopal R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

2017-05-01

National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting high-resolution regional convective-scale Unified Model with latest tropical science settings is used to evaluate vertical structure of cloud and precipitation over two prominent monsoon regions: Western Ghats (WG) and Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ). Model radar reflectivity generated using Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observation Simulator Package along with CloudSat profiling radar reflectivity is sampled for an active synoptic situation based on a new method using Budyko's index of turbulence (BT). Regime classification based on BT-precipitation relationship is more predominant during the active monsoon period when convective-scale model's resolution increases from 4 km to 1.5 km. Model predicted precipitation and vertical distribution of hydrometeors are found to be generally in agreement with Global Precipitation Measurement products and BT-based CloudSat observation, respectively. Frequency of occurrence of radar reflectivity from model implies that the low-level clouds below freezing level is underestimated compared to the observations over both regions. In addition, high-level clouds in the model predictions are much lesser over WG than MCZ.

Application of the NASA A-Train to Evaluate Clouds Simulated by the Weather Research and Forecast Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew L.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Lapenta, William M.

2008-01-01

The CloudSat Mission, part of the NASA A-Train, is providing the first global survey of cloud profiles and cloud physical properties, observing seasonal and geographical variations that are pertinent to evaluating the way clouds are parameterized in weather and climate forecast models. CloudSat measures the vertical structure of clouds and precipitation from space through the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR), a 94 GHz nadir-looking radar measuring the power backscattered by clouds as a function of distance from the radar. One of the goals of the CloudSat mission is to evaluate the representation of clouds in forecast models, thereby contributing to improved predictions of weather, climate and the cloud-climate feedback problem. This paper highlights potential limitations in cloud microphysical schemes currently employed in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) modeling system. The horizontal and vertical structure of explicitly simulated cloud fields produced by the WRF model at 4-km resolution are being evaluated using CloudSat observations in concert with products derived from MODIS and AIRS. A radiative transfer model is used to produce simulated profiles of radar reflectivity given WRF input profiles of hydrometeor mixing ratios and ambient atmospheric conditions. The preliminary results presented in the paper will compare simulated and observed reflectivity fields corresponding to horizontal and vertical cloud structures associated with midlatitude cyclone events.

Can Increased CO2 Levels Trigger a Runaway Greenhouse on the Earth?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, R.

2014-04-01

Recent one-dimensional (globally averaged) climate model calculations suggest that increased atmospheric CO2 could conceivably trigger a runaway greenhouse if CO2 concentrations were approximately 100 times higher than today. The new prediction runs contrary to previous calculations, which indicated that CO2 increases could not trigger a runaway, even at Venus-like CO2 concentrations. Goldblatt et al. argue that this different behavior is a consequence of updated absorption coefficients for H2O that make a runaway more likely. Here, we use a 1-D cloud-free climate model with similar, up-to-date absorption coefficients, but with a self-consistent methodology, to demonstrate that CO2 increases cannot induce a runaway greenhouse on the modern Earth. However, these initial calculations do not include cloud feedback, which may be positive at higher temperatures, destabilizing Earth's climate. We then show new calculations demonstrating that cirrus clouds cannot trigger a runaway, even in the complete absence of low clouds. Thus, the habitability of an Earth-like planet at Earth's distance appears to be ensured, irrespective of the sign of cloud feedback. Our results are of importance to Earth-like planets that receive similar insolation levels as does the Earth and to the ongoing question about cloud response at higher temperatures.

Improving Climate Projections by Understanding How Cloud Phase affects Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cesana, Gregory; Storelvmo, Trude

2017-01-01

Whether a cloud is predominantly water or ice strongly influences interactions between clouds and radiation coming down from the Sun or up from the Earth. Being able to simulate cloud phase transitions accurately in climate models based on observational data sets is critical in order to improve confidence in climate projections, because this uncertainty contributes greatly to the overall uncertainty associated with cloud-climate feedbacks. Ultimately, it translates into uncertainties in Earth's sensitivity to higher CO2 levels. While a lot of effort has recently been made toward constraining cloud phase in climate models, more remains to be done to document the radiative properties of clouds according to their phase. Here we discuss the added value of a new satellite data set that advances the field by providing estimates of the cloud radiative effect as a function of cloud phase and the implications for climate projections.

Studying the Formation and Development of Molecular Clouds: With the CCAT Heterodyne Array Instrument (CHAI)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldsmith, Paul F.

2012-01-01

Surveys of all different types provide basic data using different tracers. Molecular clouds have structure over a very wide range of scales. Thus, "high resolution" surveys and studies of selected nearby clouds add critical information. The combination of large-area and high resolution allows Increased spatial dynamic range, which in turn enables detection of new and perhaps critical morphology (e.g. filaments). Theoretical modeling has made major progress, and suggests that multiple forces are at work. Galactic-scale modeling also progressing - indicates that stellar feedback is required. Models must strive to reproduce observed cloud structure at all scales. Astrochemical observations are not unrelated to questions of cloud evolution and star formation but we are still learning how to use this capability.

The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffert, M.I.

1996-10-01

This research focuses on assessing connections between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and global climatic change. it has been supported since the early 1990s in part by the DOE ``Quantitative Links`` Program (QLP). A three-year effort was originally proposed to the QLP to investigate effects f global cloudiness on global climate and its implications for cloud feedback; and to continue the development and application of climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by clouds and oceans. It is well-known that cloud and ocean processes are major sources of uncertainty in the ability to predict climatic changemore » from humankind`s greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. And it has always been the objective to develop timely and useful analytical tools for addressing real world policy issues stemming from anthropogenic climate change.« less

An Estimate of Low-Cloud Feedbacks from Variations of Cloud Radiative and Physical Properties with Sea Surface Temperature on Interannual Time Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eitzen, Zachary A.; Xu, Kuan-Man; Wong, Takmeng

2011-01-01

Simulations of climate change have yet to reach a consensus on the sign and magnitude of the changes in physical properties of marine boundary layer clouds. In this study, the authors analyze how cloud and radiative properties vary with SST anomaly in low-cloud regions, based on five years (March 2000 - February 2005) of Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) -- Terra monthly gridded data and matched European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) meteorological reanalaysis data. In particular, this study focuses on the changes in cloud radiative effect, cloud fraction, and cloud optical depth with SST anomaly. The major findings are as follows. First, the low-cloud amount (-1.9% to -3.4% /K) and the logarithm of low-cloud optical depth (-0.085 to -0.100/K) tend to decrease while the net cloud radiative effect (3.86 W/m(exp 2)/ K) becomes less negative as SST anomalies increase. These results are broadly consistent with previous observational studies. Second, after the changes in cloud and radiative properties with SST anomaly are separated into dynamic, thermodynamic, and residual components, changes in the dynamic component (taken as the vertical velocity at 700 hPa) have relatively little effect on cloud and radiative properties. However, the estimated inversion strength decreases with increasing SST, accounting for a large portion of the measured decreases in cloud fraction and cloud optical depth. The residual positive change in net cloud radiative effect (1.48 W/m(exp 2)/ K) and small changes in low-cloud amount (-0.81% to 0.22% /K) and decrease in the logarithm of optical depth (-0.035 to -0.046/ K) with SST are interpreted as a positive cloud feedback, with cloud optical depth feedback being the dominant contributor. Last, the magnitudes of the residual changes differ greatly among the six low-cloud regions examined in this study, with the largest positive feedbacks (approximately 4 W/m(exp 2)/ K) in the southeast and northeast Atlantic regions and a slightly negative feedback (-0.2 W/m(exp 2)/ K) in the south-central Pacific region. Because the retrievals of cloud optical depth and/or cloud fraction are difficult in the presence of aerosols, the transport of heavy African continental aerosols may contribute to the large magnitudes of estimated cloud feedback in the two Atlantic regions.

Clouds at Barbados are representative of clouds across the trade wind regions in observations and climate models.

PubMed

Medeiros, Brian; Nuijens, Louise

2016-05-31

Trade wind regions cover most of the tropical oceans, and the prevailing cloud type is shallow cumulus. These small clouds are parameterized by climate models, and changes in their radiative effects strongly and directly contribute to the spread in estimates of climate sensitivity. This study investigates the structure and variability of these clouds in observations and climate models. The study builds upon recent detailed model evaluations using observations from the island of Barbados. Using a dynamical regimes framework, satellite and reanalysis products are used to compare the Barbados region and the broader tropics. It is shown that clouds in the Barbados region are similar to those across the trade wind regions, implying that observational findings from the Barbados Cloud Observatory are relevant to clouds across the tropics. The same methods are applied to climate models to evaluate the simulated clouds. The models generally capture the cloud radiative effect, but underestimate cloud cover and show an array of cloud vertical structures. Some models show strong biases in the environment of the Barbados region in summer, weakening the connection between the regional biases and those across the tropics. Even bearing that limitation in mind, it is shown that covariations of cloud and environmental properties in the models are inconsistent with observations. The models tend to misrepresent sensitivity to moisture variations and inversion characteristics. These model errors are likely connected to cloud feedback in climate projections, and highlight the importance of the representation of shallow cumulus convection.

Clouds at Barbados are representative of clouds across the trade wind regions in observations and climate models

PubMed Central

Nuijens, Louise

2016-01-01

Trade wind regions cover most of the tropical oceans, and the prevailing cloud type is shallow cumulus. These small clouds are parameterized by climate models, and changes in their radiative effects strongly and directly contribute to the spread in estimates of climate sensitivity. This study investigates the structure and variability of these clouds in observations and climate models. The study builds upon recent detailed model evaluations using observations from the island of Barbados. Using a dynamical regimes framework, satellite and reanalysis products are used to compare the Barbados region and the broader tropics. It is shown that clouds in the Barbados region are similar to those across the trade wind regions, implying that observational findings from the Barbados Cloud Observatory are relevant to clouds across the tropics. The same methods are applied to climate models to evaluate the simulated clouds. The models generally capture the cloud radiative effect, but underestimate cloud cover and show an array of cloud vertical structures. Some models show strong biases in the environment of the Barbados region in summer, weakening the connection between the regional biases and those across the tropics. Even bearing that limitation in mind, it is shown that covariations of cloud and environmental properties in the models are inconsistent with observations. The models tend to misrepresent sensitivity to moisture variations and inversion characteristics. These model errors are likely connected to cloud feedback in climate projections, and highlight the importance of the representation of shallow cumulus convection. PMID:27185925

Global Simulations of Ice nucleation and Ice Supersaturation with an Improved Cloud Scheme in the Community Atmosphere Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gettelman, A.; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven J.

2010-09-28

A process-based treatment of ice supersaturation and ice-nucleation is implemented in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The new scheme is designed to allow (1) supersaturation with respect to ice, (2) ice nucleation by aerosol particles and (3) ice cloud cover consistent with ice microphysics. The scheme is implemented with a 4-class 2 moment microphysics code and is used to evaluate ice cloud nucleation mechanisms and supersaturation in CAM. The new model is able to reproduce field observations of ice mass and mixed phase cloud occurrence better than previous versions of the model. Simulations indicatemore » heterogeneous freezing and contact nucleation on dust are both potentially important over remote areas of the Arctic. Cloud forcing and hence climate is sensitive to different formulations of the ice microphysics. Arctic radiative fluxes are sensitive to the parameterization of ice clouds. These results indicate that ice clouds are potentially an important part of understanding cloud forcing and potential cloud feedbacks, particularly in the Arctic.« less

Smashing a Jet into a Cloud to Form Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Susanna

2017-12-01

What happens when the highly energetic jet from the center of an active galaxy rams into surrounding clouds of gas and dust? A new study explores whether this might be a way to form stars.The authors simulations at an intermediate (top) and final (bottom) stage show the compression in the gas cloud as a jet (red) enters from the left. Undisturbed cloud material is shown in blue, whereas green corresponds to cold, compressed gas actively forming stars. [Fragile et al. 2017]Impacts of FeedbackCorrelation between properties of supermassive black holes and their host galaxies suggest that there is some means of communication between them. For this reason, we suspect that feedback from an active galactic nucleus (AGN) in the form of jets, for instance controls the size of the galaxy by influencing star formation. But how does this process work?AGN feedback can be either negative or positive. In negative feedback, the gas necessary for forming stars is heated or dispersed by the jet, curbing or halting star formation. In positive feedback, jets propagate through the surrounding gas with energies high enough to create compression in the gas, but not so high that they heat it. The increased density can cause the gas to collapse, thereby triggering star formation.In a recent study, a team of scientists led by Chris Fragile (College of Charleston) modeled what happens when an enormous AGN jet slams into a dwarf-galaxy-sized, inactive cloud of gas. In particular, the team explored the possibility of star-forming positive feedback with the goal of reproducing recent observations of something called Minkowskis Object, a stellar nursery located at the endpoint of a radio jet emitted from the active galaxy NGC 541.The star formation rate in the simulated cloud increases dramatically as a result of the jets impact, reaching the rate currently observed for Minkowskis Objects within 20 million years. [Fragile et al. 2017]Triggering Stellar BirthFragile and collaborators used a computational astrophysics code called Cosmos++ to produce three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of an AGN jet colliding with a spherical intergalactic cloud. They show that the collision triggers a series shocks that move through and around the cloud, condensing the gas and triggering runaway cooling instabilities that can lead to cloud clumps collapsing to form stars.The authors are able to find a model in which the dramatic increase in the star formation rate matches that measured for Minkowskis Object very well. In particular, the increased star formation occurs upstream of the bulk of the available H I gas, which is consistent with observations of Minkowskis Object and implicates the jets interaction with the cloud as the cause.The spatial distribution of particles tracing stars that formed as a result of the jet entering from the left, after 40 million years. Color tracks the particle age (in Myr) in the top panel and particle velocity (in km/s) inthe bottom. [Adapted from Fragile et al. 2017]An intriguing result of the authors simulations is a look at the spatial distribution of the velocities of stars that form when triggered by the jet. Because the propagation speed of the star-formation front gradually slows, the fastest-moving stars are those that were formed first, and they are found furthest downstream. This provides an interesting testable prediction we can look to see if a similar distribution is visible in Minkowskis Object.Fragile and collaborators plan further refinements to their simulations, but they argue that the success of their model to reproduce observations of Minkowskis Object are very promising. Positive feedback from AGN jets indeed appears to have an important impact on the surrounding environment.CitationP. Chris Fragile et al 2017 ApJ 850 171. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/aa95c6

Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity from Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Pincus, Robert; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.

2018-01-01

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2-radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity From Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marvel, Kate; Pincus, Robert; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.

2018-02-01

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2 radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

How consistent are precipitation patterns predicted by GCMs in the absence of cloud radiative effects?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popke, Dagmar; Bony, Sandrine; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Stevens, Bjorn

2015-04-01

Model simulations with state-of-the-art general circulation models reveal a strong disagreement concerning the simulated regional precipitation patterns and their changes with warming. The deviating precipitation response even persists when reducing the model experiment complexity to aquaplanet simulation with forced sea surface temperatures (Stevens and Bony, 2013). To assess feedbacks between clouds and radiation on precipitation responses we analyze data from 5 models performing the aquaplanet simulations of the Clouds On Off Klima Intercomparison Experiment (COOKIE), where the interaction of clouds and radiation is inhibited. Although cloud radiative effects are then disabled, the precipitation patterns among models are as diverse as with cloud radiative effects switched on. Disentangling differing model responses in such simplified experiments thus appears to be key to better understanding the simulated regional precipitation in more standard configurations. By analyzing the local moisture and moist static energy budgets in the COOKIE experiments we investigate likely causes for the disagreement among models. References Stevens, B. & S. Bony: What Are Climate Models Missing?, Science, 2013, 340, 1053-1054

Ubiquity and impact of thin mid-level clouds in the tropics

PubMed Central

Bourgeois, Quentin; Ekman, Annica M. L.; Igel, Matthew R.; Krejci, Radovan

2016-01-01

Clouds are crucial for Earth's climate and radiation budget. Great attention has been paid to low, high and vertically thick tropospheric clouds such as stratus, cirrus and deep convective clouds. However, much less is known about tropospheric mid-level clouds as these clouds are challenging to observe in situ and difficult to detect by remote sensing techniques. Here we use Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) satellite observations to show that thin mid-level clouds (TMLCs) are ubiquitous in the tropics. Supported by high-resolution regional model simulations, we find that TMLCs are formed by detrainment from convective clouds near the zero-degree isotherm. Calculations using a radiative transfer model indicate that tropical TMLCs have a cooling effect on climate that could be as large in magnitude as the warming effect of cirrus. We conclude that more effort has to be made to understand TMLCs, as their influence on cloud feedbacks, heat and moisture transport, and climate sensitivity could be substantial. PMID:27530236

Ubiquity and impact of thin mid-level clouds in the tropics.

PubMed

Bourgeois, Quentin; Ekman, Annica M L; Igel, Matthew R; Krejci, Radovan

2016-08-17

Clouds are crucial for Earth's climate and radiation budget. Great attention has been paid to low, high and vertically thick tropospheric clouds such as stratus, cirrus and deep convective clouds. However, much less is known about tropospheric mid-level clouds as these clouds are challenging to observe in situ and difficult to detect by remote sensing techniques. Here we use Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) satellite observations to show that thin mid-level clouds (TMLCs) are ubiquitous in the tropics. Supported by high-resolution regional model simulations, we find that TMLCs are formed by detrainment from convective clouds near the zero-degree isotherm. Calculations using a radiative transfer model indicate that tropical TMLCs have a cooling effect on climate that could be as large in magnitude as the warming effect of cirrus. We conclude that more effort has to be made to understand TMLCs, as their influence on cloud feedbacks, heat and moisture transport, and climate sensitivity could be substantial.

Evaluation of WRF Model Against Satellite and Field Measurements During ARM March 2000 IOP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

2003-12-01

Meso-scale WRF model is employed to simulate the organization of clouds related with the cyclogenesis occurred during March 1-4, 2000 over ARM SGP CART site. Qualitative comparisons of simulated clouds with GOES8 satellite images show that the WRF model can capture the main features of clouds related with the cyclogenesis. The simulated precipitation patterns also match the Radar reflectivity images well. Further evaluation of the simulated features on GCM grid-scale is conducted against ARM field measurements. The evaluation shows that the evolutions of the simulated state fields such as temperature and moisture, the simulated wind fields and the derived large-scale temperature and moisture tendencies closely follow the observed patterns. These results encourages us to use meso-scale WRF model as a tool to verify the performance of GCMs in simulating cloud feedback processes related with the frontal clouds such that we can test and validate the current cloud parameterizations in climate models, and make possible improvements to different components of current cloud parameterizations in GCMs.

Ultrafast Outflows: Galaxy-scale Active Galactic Nucleus Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, A. Y.; Umemura, M.; Bicknell, G. V.

2013-01-01

We show, using global three-dimensional grid-based hydrodynamical simulations, that ultrafast outflows (UFOs) from active galactic nuclei (AGNs) result in considerable feedback of energy and momentum into the interstellar medium (ISM) of the host galaxy. The AGN wind interacts strongly with the inhomogeneous, two-phase ISM consisting of dense clouds embedded in a tenuous, hot, hydrostatic medium. The outflow floods through the intercloud channels, sweeps up the hot ISM, and ablates and disperses the dense clouds. The momentum of the UFO is primarily transferred to the dense clouds via the ram pressure in the channel flow, and the wind-blown bubble evolves in the energy-driven regime. Any dependence on UFO opening angle disappears after the first interaction with obstructing clouds. On kpc scales, therefore, feedback by UFOs operates similarly to feedback by relativistic AGN jets. Negative feedback is significantly stronger if clouds are distributed spherically rather than in a disk. In the latter case, the turbulent backflow of the wind drives mass inflow toward the central black hole. Considering the common occurrence of UFOs in AGNs, they are likely to be important in the cosmological feedback cycles of galaxy formation.

ULTRAFAST OUTFLOWS: GALAXY-SCALE ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEUS FEEDBACK

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wagner, A. Y.; Umemura, M.; Bicknell, G. V., E-mail: ayw@ccs.tsukuba.ac.jp

We show, using global three-dimensional grid-based hydrodynamical simulations, that ultrafast outflows (UFOs) from active galactic nuclei (AGNs) result in considerable feedback of energy and momentum into the interstellar medium (ISM) of the host galaxy. The AGN wind interacts strongly with the inhomogeneous, two-phase ISM consisting of dense clouds embedded in a tenuous, hot, hydrostatic medium. The outflow floods through the intercloud channels, sweeps up the hot ISM, and ablates and disperses the dense clouds. The momentum of the UFO is primarily transferred to the dense clouds via the ram pressure in the channel flow, and the wind-blown bubble evolves inmore » the energy-driven regime. Any dependence on UFO opening angle disappears after the first interaction with obstructing clouds. On kpc scales, therefore, feedback by UFOs operates similarly to feedback by relativistic AGN jets. Negative feedback is significantly stronger if clouds are distributed spherically rather than in a disk. In the latter case, the turbulent backflow of the wind drives mass inflow toward the central black hole. Considering the common occurrence of UFOs in AGNs, they are likely to be important in the cosmological feedback cycles of galaxy formation.« less

The ARM Cloud Radar Simulator for Global Climate Models: A New Tool for Bridging Field Data and Climate Models

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Yuying; Xie, Shaocheng; Klein, Stephen A.; ...

2017-08-11

Clouds play an important role in Earth’s radiation budget and hydrological cycle. However, current global climate models (GCMs) have difficulties in accurately simulating clouds and precipitation. To improve the representation of clouds in climate models, it is crucial to identify where simulated clouds differ from real world observations of them. This can be difficult, since significant differences exist between how a climate model represents clouds and what instruments observe, both in terms of spatial scale and the properties of the hydrometeors which are either modeled or observed. To address these issues and minimize impacts of instrument limitations, the concept ofmore » instrument “simulators”, which convert model variables into pseudo-instrument observations, has evolved with the goal to facilitate and to improve the comparison of modeled clouds with observations. Many simulators have been (and continue to be) developed for a variety of instruments and purposes. Finally, a community satellite simulator package, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP; Bodas-Salcedo et al. 2011), contains several independent satellite simulators and is being widely used in the global climate modeling community to exploit satellite observations for model cloud evaluation (e.g., Kay et al. 2012; Klein et al. 2013; Suzuki et al. 2013; Zhang et al. 2010).« less

The ARM Cloud Radar Simulator for Global Climate Models: A New Tool for Bridging Field Data and Climate Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yuying; Xie, Shaocheng; Klein, Stephen A.

Clouds play an important role in Earth’s radiation budget and hydrological cycle. However, current global climate models (GCMs) have difficulties in accurately simulating clouds and precipitation. To improve the representation of clouds in climate models, it is crucial to identify where simulated clouds differ from real world observations of them. This can be difficult, since significant differences exist between how a climate model represents clouds and what instruments observe, both in terms of spatial scale and the properties of the hydrometeors which are either modeled or observed. To address these issues and minimize impacts of instrument limitations, the concept ofmore » instrument “simulators”, which convert model variables into pseudo-instrument observations, has evolved with the goal to facilitate and to improve the comparison of modeled clouds with observations. Many simulators have been (and continue to be) developed for a variety of instruments and purposes. Finally, a community satellite simulator package, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP; Bodas-Salcedo et al. 2011), contains several independent satellite simulators and is being widely used in the global climate modeling community to exploit satellite observations for model cloud evaluation (e.g., Kay et al. 2012; Klein et al. 2013; Suzuki et al. 2013; Zhang et al. 2010).« less

Paleogeographic Controls on Climate Sensitivity and Feedback Strength and their Impacts on Snowball Earth Initiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorella, R.; Poulsen, C. J.

2013-12-01

The enigmatic Neoproterozoic geological record suggests the potential for a fully glaciated 'Snowball Earth.' Low-latitude continental position has been invoked as a potential Snowball Earth trigger by increasing surface albedo and decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations through increased silicate weathering. Herein, climate response to reduction of total solar irradiance (TSI) and CO2 concentration is tested using four different land configurations (aquaplanet, modern, Neoproterozoic, and low-latitude supercontinent) with uniform topography in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM, version 3.1) GCM with a mixed-layer ocean. Despite a lower global mean surface albedo at 100% TSI for the aquaplanet scenario, the threshold for global glaciation decreases from 92% TSI in the aquaplanet configuration to 85% TSI with a low-latitude supercontinent. Climate sensitivity, as measured by the equilibrium temperature response to TSI and CO2 changes, varied across all four geographies at each forcing pair. The range of sensitivities observed suggests that climate feedback strengths are strongly dependent on both paleogeography and forcing. To identify the mechanisms responsible for the observed breadth in climate sensitivities, we calculate radiative kernels for four different TSI and CO2 forcing pairs in order to assess the strengths of the water vapor, albedo, lapse rate, Planck, and cloud feedbacks and how they vary with both forcing and paleogeography. Radiative kernels are calculated using an uncoupled version of the CAM3.1 radiation code and then perturbing climate fields of interest (surface albedo, specific humidity, and temperature) by a standard amount. No cloud kernels are calculated; instead, the cloud feedback is calculated by correcting the change in cloud radiative forcing to account for cloud masking. We find that paleogeography strongly controls how the water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks respond to different forcings. In particular, low latitude continents diminish the change in water vapor feedback strengths resulting from changes in forcing. Continental heating intensifies the Walker circulation, enhancing surface evaporation and moistening the marine troposphere. Additionally, dehumidification of the troposphere over large tropical continents in CAM3.1 increases direct heating by decreasing cloud cover. As a result, in the absence of potential silicate weathering feedbacks, large tropical landmasses raise the barrier to initiation of Snowball events. More generally, these simulations demonstrate the substantial influence of geography on climate sensitivity and climate feedback mechanisms, and challenge the notion that reduced continental area early in Earth history might provide a solution to the Faint Young Sun Paradox.

FIRE Arctic Clouds Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curry, J. A.; Hobbs, P. V.; King, M. D.; Randall, D. A.; Minnis, P.; Issac, G. A.; Pinto, J. O.; Uttal, T.; Bucholtz, A.; Cripe, D. G.;

Ultra-Parameterized CAM: Progress Towards Low-Cloud Permitting Superparameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parishani, H.; Pritchard, M. S.; Bretherton, C. S.; Khairoutdinov, M.; Wyant, M. C.; Singh, B.

2016-12-01

A leading source of uncertainty in climate feedback arises from the representation of low clouds, which are not resolved but depend on small-scale physical processes (e.g. entrainment, boundary layer turbulence) that are heavily parameterized. We show results from recent attempts to achieve an explicit representation of low clouds by pushing the computational limits of cloud superparameterization to resolve boundary-layer eddy scales relevant to marine stratocumulus (250m horizontal and 20m vertical length scales). This extreme configuration is called "ultraparameterization". Effects of varying horizontal vs. vertical resolution are analyzed in the context of altered constraints on the turbulent kinetic energy statistics of the marine boundary layer. We show that 250m embedded horizontal resolution leads to a more realistic boundary layer vertical structure, but also to an unrealistic cloud pulsation that cannibalizes time mean LWP. We explore the hypothesis that feedbacks involving horizontal advection (not typically encountered in offline LES that neglect this degree of freedom) may conspire to produce such effects and present strategies to compensate. The results are relevant to understanding the emergent behavior of quasi-resolved low cloud decks in a multi-scale modeling framework within a previously unencountered grey zone of better resolved boundary-layer turbulence.

Response to "The Iris Hypothesis: A Negative or Positive Cloud Feedback?"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Ming-Dah; Lindzen, Richard S.; Hou, Arthur Y.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Based on radiance measurements of Japan's Geostationary Meteorological Satellite, Lindzen et al. found that the high-level cloud cover averaged over the tropical western Pacific decreases with increasing sea surface temperature. They further found that the response of high-level clouds to the sea surface temperature had an effect of reducing the magnitude of climate change, which is referred as a negative climate feedback. Lin et al. reassessed the results found by Lindzen et al. by analyzing the radiation and clouds derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System measurements. They found a weak positive feedback between high-level clouds and the surface temperature. We have found that the approach taken by Lin et al. to estimating the albedo and the outgoing longwave radiation is incorrect and that the inferred climate sensitivity is unreliable.

Aerosol direct, indirect, semidirect, and surface albedo effects from sector contributions based on the IPCC AR5 emissions for preindustrial and present-day conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi

2012-01-01

The anthropogenic increase in aerosol concentrations since preindustrial times and its net cooling effect on the atmosphere is thought to mask some of the greenhouse gas-induced warming. Although the overall effect of aerosols on solar radiation and clouds is most certainly negative, some individual forcing agents and feedbacks have positive forcing effects. Recent studies have tried to identify some of those positive forcing agents and their individual emission sectors, with the hope that mitigation policies could be developed to target those emitters. Understanding the net effect of multisource emitting sectors and the involved cloud feedbacks is very challenging, and this paper will clarify forcing and feedback effects by separating direct, indirect, semidirect and surface albedo effects due to aerosols. To this end, we apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model including detailed aerosol microphysics to examine aerosol impacts on climate by isolating single emission sector contributions as given by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) emission data sets developed for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5. For the modeled past 150 years, using the climate model and emissions from preindustrial times to present-day, the total global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing is -0.6 W/m2, with the largest contribution from the direct effect (-0.5 W/m2). Aerosol-induced changes on cloud cover often depends on cloud type and geographical region. The indirect (includes only the cloud albedo effect with -0.17 W/m2) and semidirect effects (-0.10 W/m2) can be isolated on a regional scale, and they often have opposing forcing effects, leading to overall small forcing effects on a global scale. Although the surface albedo effects from aerosols are small (0.016 W/m2), triggered feedbacks on top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing can be 10 times larger. Our results point out that each emission sector has varying impacts by geographical region. For example, the single sector most responsible for a net positive radiative forcing is the transportation sector in the United States, agricultural burning and transportation in Europe, and the domestic emission sector in Asia. These sectors are attractive mitigation targets.

Aerosol Direct, Indirect, Semidirect, and Surface Albedo Effects from Sector Contributions Based on the IPCC AR5 Emissions for Preindustrial and Present-day Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi

2012-01-01

The anthropogenic increase in aerosol concentrations since preindustrial times and its net cooling effect on the atmosphere is thought to mask some of the greenhouse gas-induced warming. Although the overall effect of aerosols on solar radiation and clouds is most certainly negative, some individual forcing agents and feedbacks have positive forcing effects. Recent studies have tried to identify some of those positive forcing agents and their individual emission sectors, with the hope that mitigation policies could be developed to target those emitters. Understanding the net effect of multisource emitting sectors and the involved cloud feedbacks is very challenging, and this paper will clarify forcing and feedback effects by separating direct, indirect, semidirect and surface albedo effects due to aerosols. To this end, we apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model including detailed aerosol microphysics to examine aerosol impacts on climate by isolating single emission sector contributions as given by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) emission data sets developed for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5. For the modeled past 150 years, using the climate model and emissions from preindustrial times to present-day, the total global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing is -0.6 W/m(exp 2), with the largest contribution from the direct effect (-0.5 W/m(exp 2)). Aerosol-induced changes on cloud cover often depends on cloud type and geographical region. The indirect (includes only the cloud albedo effect with -0.17 W/m(exp 2)) and semidirect effects (-0.10 W/m(exp 2)) can be isolated on a regional scale, and they often have opposing forcing effects, leading to overall small forcing effects on a global scale. Although the surface albedo effects from aerosols are small (0.016 W/m(exp 2)), triggered feedbacks on top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing can be 10 times larger. Our results point out that each emission sector has varying impacts by geographical region. For example, the single sector most responsible for a net positive radiative forcing is the transportation sector in the United States, agricultural burning and transportation in Europe, and the domestic emission sector in Asia. These sectors are attractive mitigation targets.

Impact of cloud timing on surface temperature and related hydroclimatic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porporato, A. M.; Yin, J.

2015-12-01

Cloud feedbacks have long been identified as one of the largest source of uncertainty in climate change predictions. Differences in the spatial distribution of clouds and the related impact on surface temperature and climate dynamics have been recently emphasized in quasi-equilibrium General Circulation Models (GCM). However, much less attention has been paid to the temporal variation of cloud presence and thickness. Clouds in fact shade the solar radiation during the daytime, but also acts as greenhouse gas to reduce the emission of longwave radiation to the outer space anytime of the day. Thus it is logical to expect that even small differences in timing and thickness of clouds could result in very different predictions in GCMs. In this study, these two effects of cloud dynamics are analyzed by tracking the cloud impacts on longwave and shortwave radiation in a minimalist transient thermal balance model of the land surface. The marked changes in surface temperature due to alterations in the timing of onset of clouds demonstrate that capturing temporal variation of cloud at sub-daily scale should be a priority in cloud parameterization schemes in GCMs.

A Hierarchical Modeling Study of the Interactions Among Turbulence, Cloud Microphysics, and Radiative Transfer in the Evolution of Cirrus Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curry, Judith; Khvorostyanov, V. I.

2005-01-01

This project used a hierarchy of cloud resolving models to address the following science issues of relevance to CRYSTAL-FACE: What ice crystal nucleation mechanisms are active in the different types of cirrus clouds in the Florida area and how do these different nucleation processes influence the evolution of the cloud system and the upper tropospheric humidity? How does the feedback between supersaturation and nucleation impact the evolution of the cloud? What is the relative importance of the large-scale vertical motion and the turbulent motions in the evolution of the crystal size spectra? How does the size spectra impact the life-cycle of the cloud, stratospheric dehydration, and cloud radiative forcing? What is the nature of the turbulence and waves in the upper troposphere generated by precipitating deep convective cloud systems? How do cirrus microphysical and optical properties vary with the small-scale dynamics? How do turbulence and waves in the upper troposphere influence the cross-tropopause mixing and stratospheric and upper tropospheric humidity? The models used in this study were: 2-D hydrostatic model with explicit microphysics that can account for 30 size bins for both the droplet and crystal size spectra. Notably, a new ice crystal nucleation scheme has been incorporated into the model. Parcel model with explicit microphysics, for developing and evaluating microphysical parameterizations. Single column model for testing bulk microphysics parameterizations

Middle School Students' Writing and Feedback in a Cloud-Based Classroom Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zheng, Binbin; Lawrence, Joshua; Warschauer, Mark; Lin, Chin-Hsi

2015-01-01

Individual writing and collaborative writing skills are important for academic success, yet are poorly taught in K-12 classrooms. This study examines how sixth-grade students (n = 257) taught by two teachers used Google Docs to write and exchange feedback. We used longitudinal growth models to analyze a large number of student writing samples…

Polar clouds and radiation in satellite observations, reanalyses, and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Van Tricht, Kristof; Lhermitte, Stef; L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.

2017-04-01

Clouds play a pivotal role in the surface energy budget of the polar regions. Here we use two largely independent data sets of cloud and surface downwelling radiation observations derived by satellite remote sensing (2007-2010) to evaluate simulated clouds and radiation over both polar ice sheets and oceans in state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalyses (ERA-Interim and Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications-2) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model ensemble. First, we show that, compared to Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System-Energy Balanced and Filled, CloudSat-CALIPSO better represents cloud liquid and ice water path over high latitudes, owing to its recent explicit determination of cloud phase that will be part of its new R05 release. The reanalyses and climate models disagree widely on the amount of cloud liquid and ice in the polar regions. Compared to the observations, we find significant but inconsistent biases in the model simulations of cloud liquid and ice water, as well as in the downwelling radiation components. The CMIP5 models display a wide range of cloud characteristics of the polar regions, especially with regard to cloud liquid water, limiting the representativeness of the multimodel mean. A few CMIP5 models (CNRM, GISS, GFDL, and IPSL_CM5b) clearly outperform the others, which enhances credibility in their projected future cloud and radiation changes over high latitudes. Given the rapid changes in polar regions and global feedbacks involved, future climate model developments should target improved representation of polar clouds. To that end, remote sensing observations are crucial, in spite of large remaining observational uncertainties, which is evidenced by the substantial differences between the two data sets.

Moist Thermodynamics of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensification in High-Resolution Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, A. A.; Camargo, S. J.; Sobel, A. H.; Kim, D.; Moon, Y.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Murakami, H.; Reed, K. A.; Vecchi, G. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Zhao, M.

2017-12-01

In recent years, climate models have improved such that high-resolution simulations are able to reproduce the climatology of tropical cyclone activity with some fidelity and show some skill in seasonal forecasting. However, biases remain in many models, motivating a better understanding of what factors control the representation of tropical cyclone activity in climate models. We explore tropical cyclogenesis and intensification processes in six high-resolution climate models from NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, and NASA, including both coupled and uncoupled configurations. Our analysis framework focuses on how convection, moisture, clouds and related processes are coupled and employs budgets of column moist static energy and the spatial variance of column moist static energy. The latter allows us to quantify the different feedback processes responsible for the amplification of moist static energy anomalies associated with the organization of convection and cyclogenesis, including surface flux feedbacks and cloud-radiative feedbacks. We track the formation and evolution of tropical cyclones in the climate model simulations and apply our analysis along the individual tracks and composited over many tropical cyclones. We use two methods of compositing: a composite over all TC track points in a given intensity range, and a composite relative to the time of lifetime maximum intensity for each storm (at the same stage in the TC life cycle).

Evaluation of Arctic Clouds And Their Response to External Forcing in Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Jiang, J. H.; Ming, Y.; Su, H.; Yung, Y. L.

2017-12-01

A warming Arctic is undergoing significant environmental changes, mostly evidenced by the reduction in Arctic sea-ice extent (SIE). However, the role of Arctic clouds in determining the sea ice melting remains elusive, as different phases of clouds can induce either positive or negative radiative forcing in different seasons. The possible cloud feedbacks following the opened ocean surface are also debatable due to variations of polar boundary structure. Therefore, Arctic cloud simulation has long been considered as the largest source of uncertainty in the climate sensitivity assessment. Other local or remote atmospheric factors, such as poleward moisture and heat transport as well as atmospheric aerosols seeding liquid and ice clouds, further complicate our understanding of the Arctic cloud change. Our recent efforts focus on the post-CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, which improve atmospheric compositions, cloud macro- and microphysics, convection parameterizations, etc. In this study, we utilize long-term satellite measurements with high-resolution coverage and broad wavelength spectrum to evaluate the mean states and variations of mixed-phase clouds in the Arctic, along with the concurrent moisture and SIE measurements. The model sensitivity experiments to understand external perturbations on the atmosphere-cryosphere coupling in the Arctic will be presented.

Simulating radiative feedback and star cluster formation in GMCs - II. Mass dependence of cloud destruction and cluster properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, Corey S.; Pudritz, Ralph E.; Harris, William E.

2017-09-01

The process of radiative feedback in giant molecular clouds (GMCs) is an important mechanism for limiting star cluster formation through the heating and ionization of the surrounding gas. We explore the degree to which radiative feedback affects early (≲5 Myr) cluster formation in GMCs having masses that range from 104 to 106 M⊙ using the flash code. The inclusion of radiative feedback lowers the efficiency of cluster formation by 20-50 per cent relative to hydrodynamic simulations. Two models in particular - 5 × 104 and 105 M⊙ - show the largest suppression of the cluster formation efficiency, corresponding to a factor of ˜2. For these clouds only, the internal energy, a measure of the energy injected by radiative feedback, exceeds the gravitational potential for a significant amount of time. We find a clear relation between the maximum cluster mass, Mc,max, formed in a GMC and the mass of the GMC itself, MGMC: Mc,max ∝ M_{GMC}^{0.81}. This scaling result suggests that young globular clusters at the necessary scale of 106 M⊙ form within host GMCs of masses near ˜5 × 107 M⊙. We compare simulated cluster mass distributions to the observed embedded cluster mass function [d log (N)/dlog (M) ∝ Mβ where β = -1] and find good agreement (β = -0.99 ± 0.14) only for simulations including radiative feedback, indicating this process is important in controlling the growth of young clusters. However, the high star formation efficiencies, which range from 16 to 21 per cent, and high star formation rates compared to locally observed regions suggest other feedback mechanisms are also important during the formation and growth of stellar clusters.

An uncertainty principle for star formation - II. A new method for characterising the cloud-scale physics of star formation and feedback across cosmic history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruijssen, J. M. Diederik; Schruba, Andreas; Hygate, Alexander P. S.; Hu, Chia-Yu; Haydon, Daniel T.; Longmore, Steven N.

2018-05-01

The cloud-scale physics of star formation and feedback represent the main uncertainty in galaxy formation studies. Progress is hampered by the limited empirical constraints outside the restricted environment of the Local Group. In particular, the poorly-quantified time evolution of the molecular cloud lifecycle, star formation, and feedback obstructs robust predictions on the scales smaller than the disc scale height that are resolved in modern galaxy formation simulations. We present a new statistical method to derive the evolutionary timeline of molecular clouds and star-forming regions. By quantifying the excess or deficit of the gas-to-stellar flux ratio around peaks of gas or star formation tracer emission, we directly measure the relative rarity of these peaks, which allows us to derive their lifetimes. We present a step-by-step, quantitative description of the method and demonstrate its practical application. The method's accuracy is tested in nearly 300 experiments using simulated galaxy maps, showing that it is capable of constraining the molecular cloud lifetime and feedback time-scale to <0.1 dex precision. Access to the evolutionary timeline provides a variety of additional physical quantities, such as the cloud-scale star formation efficiency, the feedback outflow velocity, the mass loading factor, and the feedback energy or momentum coupling efficiencies to the ambient medium. We show that the results are robust for a wide variety of gas and star formation tracers, spatial resolutions, galaxy inclinations, and galaxy sizes. Finally, we demonstrate that our method can be applied out to high redshift (z≲ 4) with a feasible time investment on current large-scale observatories. This is a major shift from previous studies that constrained the physics of star formation and feedback in the immediate vicinity of the Sun.

Feedbacks between Air-Quality, Meteorology, and the Forest Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makar, Paul; Akingunola, Ayodeji; Stroud, Craig; Zhang, Junhua; Gong, Wanmin; Moran, Michael; Zheng, Qiong; Brook, Jeffrey; Sills, David

2017-04-01

The outcome of air quality forecasts depend in part on how the local environment surrounding the emissions regions influences chemical reaction rates and transport from those regions to the larger spatial scales. Forested areas alter atmospheric chemistry through reducing photolysis rates and vertical diffusivities within the forest canopy. The emitted pollutants, and their reaction products, are in turn capable of altering meteorology, through the well-known direct and indirect effects of particulate matter on radiative transfer. The combination of these factors was examined using version 2 of the Global Environmental Multiscale - Modelling Air-quality and CHemistry (GEM-MACH) on-line air pollution model. The model configuration used for this study included 12 aerosol size bins, eight aerosol species, homogeneous core Mie scattering, the Milbrandt-Yao two-moment cloud microphysics scheme with cloud condensation nuclei generated from model aerosols using the scheme of Abdul-Razzak and Ghan, and a new parameterization for forest canopy shading and turbulence. The model was nested to 2.5km resolution for a domain encompassing the lower Great Lakes, for simulations of a period in August of 2015 during the Pan American Games, held in Toronto, Canada. Four scenarios were carried out: (1) a "Base Case" scenario (the original model, in which coupling between chemistry and weather is not permitted; instead, the meteorological model's internal climatologies for aerosol optical and cloud condensation properties are used for direct and indirect effect calculations); (2) a "Feedback" scenario (the aerosol properties were derived from the internally simulated chemistry, and coupled to the meteorological model's radiative transfer and cloud formation modules); (3) a "Forest" scenario (canopy shading and turbulence were added to the Base Case); (4) a "Combined" scenario (including both direct and indirect effect coupling between meteorology and chemistry, as well as the forest canopy parameterization). The simulations suggest that the feedbacks between simulated aerosols and meteorology may strengthen the existing lake breeze circulation, modifying the resulting meteorological and air-quality forecasts, while the forest canopy's influence may extend throughout the planetary boundary layer, and may also influence the weather. The simulations will be compared to available observations, in order to determine their relative impact on model performance.

Physical feedbacks on stratus cloud amount resolve the Faint Young Sun Paradox

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldblatt, C.; McCusker, K. E.; McDonald, V.

2017-12-01

Geological evidence suggests that Earth was mostly warm and not glaciated during the Archean, despite Earth receiving only around 80% of the present day amount of sunlight. 1-D models require higher abundances of greenhouse gases than geochemical proxies permit, whereas some 3-D models permit lower greenhouse gas inventories, but for reasons which are somewhat opaque. Here, we show that physically motivated changes to low cloud (stratus) amount likely played a large role in resolving the FYSP. The amount of stratus cloud is strongly linked to lower tropospheric stability [Slingo 1987; Woods and Bretherton 2006], with a stronger inversion at the planetary boundary layer trapping moisture and giving a higher stratus cloud fraction. By hypothesis, an Archean situation where the surface is heated less by sunlight and the atmosphere is heated more by absorption of thermal radiation with a stronger greenhouse, should feature a weaker inversion and less stable lower troposphere. Hence, with a weaker sun but stronger greenhouse, we expect less stratus clouds. To test this hypothesis, we run a set of carefully controlled General Circulation Model experiments using the Community Atmosphere Model. We change only the solar constant and CO2 mixing ratio, increasing CO2 and decreasing the solar constant so that the global mean surface temperature remains the same. We do not change anything else, so as to focus directly on a single hypothesis, and to keep the model as near to known conditions as possible. We find that at 80% of modern solar constant: (1) only 30,000 ppmv CO2 is required to maintain modern surface temperatures, versus the expectation of 80,000 ppmv from radiative forcing calculations. (2) The dominant change is to low cloud fraction, decreasing from 34% to 25%, with an associated reduction in short-wave cloud forcing of 20W/m/m. This can be set in the context of a 50W/m/m radiative deficit due to the weaker sun, so the cloud feedback contributes two-fifths of the required warming. (3) There is a reduced meridional temperature gradient such that the poles are 4 to 8 K warmer than present, which will further contributes to the avoidance of glaciation.

Enhancement of Feedback Efficiency by Active Galactic Nucleus Outflows via the Magnetic Tension Force in the Inhomogeneous Interstellar Medium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Asahina, Yuta; Ohsuga, Ken; Nomura, Mariko, E-mail: asahina@cfca.jp

By performing three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics simulations of subrelativistic jets and disk winds propagating into the magnetized inhomogeneous interstellar medium (ISM), we investigate the magnetic effects on the active galactic nucleus feedback. Our simulations reveal that the magnetic tension force promotes the acceleration of the dense gas clouds, since the magnetic field lines, which are initially straight, bend around the gas clouds. In the jet models, the velocity dispersion of the clouds increases with an increase in the initial magnetic fields. The increment of the kinetic energy of the clouds is proportional to the initial magnetic fields, implying that the magnetic tensionmore » force increases the energy conversion efficiency from the jet to the gas clouds. Through simulations of the mildly collimated disk wind and the funnel-shaped disk wind, we confirm that such an enhancement of the energy conversion efficiency via the magnetic fields appears even if the energy is injected via the disk winds. The enhancement of the acceleration of the dense part of the magnetized ISM via the magnetic tension force will occur wherever the magnetized inhomogeneous matter is blown away.« less

On the relationships among cloud cover, mixed-phase partitioning, and planetary albedo in GCMs

DOE PAGES

McCoy, Daniel T.; Tan, Ivy; Hartmann, Dennis L.; ...

2016-05-06

In this study, it is shown that CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) that convert supercooled water to ice at relatively warm temperatures tend to have a greater mean-state cloud fraction and more negative cloud feedback in the middle and high latitude Southern Hemisphere. We investigate possible reasons for these relationships by analyzing the mixed-phase parameterizations in 26 GCMs. The atmospheric temperature where ice and liquid are equally prevalent (T5050) is used to characterize the mixed-phase parameterization in each GCM. Liquid clouds have a higher albedo than ice clouds, so, all else being equal, models with more supercooled liquid water wouldmore » also have a higher planetary albedo. The lower cloud fraction in these models compensates the higher cloud reflectivity and results in clouds that reflect shortwave radiation (SW) in reasonable agreement with observations, but gives clouds that are too bright and too few. The temperature at which supercooled liquid can remain unfrozen is strongly anti-correlated with cloud fraction in the climate mean state across the model ensemble, but we know of no robust physical mechanism to explain this behavior, especially because this anti-correlation extends through the subtropics. A set of perturbed physics simulations with the Community Atmospheric Model Version 4 (CAM4) shows that, if its temperature-dependent phase partitioning is varied and the critical relative humidity for cloud formation in each model run is also tuned to bring reflected SW into agreement with observations, then cloud fraction increases and liquid water path (LWP) decreases with T5050, as in the CMIP5 ensemble.« less

The ARM Cloud Radar Simulator for Global Climate Models: Bridging Field Data and Climate Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yuying; Xie, Shaocheng; Klein, Stephen A.

Clouds play an important role in Earth’s radiation budget and hydrological cycle. However, current global climate models (GCMs) have had difficulties in accurately simulating clouds and precipitation. To improve the representation of clouds in climate models, it is crucial to identify where simulated clouds differ from real world observations of them. This can be difficult, since significant differences exist between how a climate model represents clouds and what instruments observe, both in terms of spatial scale and the properties of the hydrometeors which are either modeled or observed. To address these issues and minimize impacts of instrument limitations, the conceptmore » of instrument “simulators”, which convert model variables into pseudo-instrument observations, has evolved with the goal to improve and to facilitate the comparison of modeled clouds with observations. Many simulators have (and continue to be developed) for a variety of instruments and purposes. A community satellite simulator package, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP; Bodas-Salcedo et al. 2011), contains several independent satellite simulators and is being widely used in the global climate modeling community to exploit satellite observations for model cloud evaluation (e.g., Klein et al. 2013; Zhang et al. 2010). This article introduces a ground-based cloud radar simulator developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for comparing climate model clouds with ARM observations from its vertically pointing 35-GHz radars. As compared to CloudSat radar observations, ARM radar measurements occur with higher temporal resolution and finer vertical resolution. This enables users to investigate more fully the detailed vertical structures within clouds, resolve thin clouds, and quantify the diurnal variability of clouds. Particularly, ARM radars are sensitive to low-level clouds, which are difficult for the CloudSat radar to detect due to surface contamination (Mace et al. 2007; Marchand et al. 2008). Therefore, the ARM ground-based cloud observations can provide important observations of clouds that complement measurements from space.« less

Hydrodynamic simulations of mechanical stellar feedback in a molecular cloud formed by thermal instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wareing, C. J.; Pittard, J. M.; Falle, S. A. E. G.

2017-09-01

We have used the AMR hydrodynamic code, mg, to perform 3D hydrodynamic simulations with self-gravity of stellar feedback in a spherical clumpy molecular cloud formed through the action of thermal instability. We simulate the interaction of the mechanical energy input from 15, 40, 60 and 120 M⊙ stars into a 100 pc diameter 16 500 M⊙ cloud with a roughly spherical morphology with randomly distributed high-density condensations. The stellar winds are introduced using appropriate non-rotating Geneva stellar evolution models. In the 15 M⊙ star case, the wind has very little effect, spreading around a few neighbouring clumps before becoming overwhelmed by the cloud collapse. In contrast, in the 40, 60 and 120 M⊙ star cases, the more powerful stellar winds create large cavities and carve channels through the cloud, breaking out into the surrounding tenuous medium during the wind phase and considerably altering the cloud structure. After 4.97, 3.97 and 3.01 Myr, respectively, the massive stars explode as supernovae (SNe). The wind-sculpted surroundings considerably affect the evolution of these SN events as they both escape the cloud along wind-carved channels and sweep up remaining clumps of cloud/wind material. The 'cloud' as a coherent structure does not survive the SN from any of these stars, but only in the 120 M⊙ case is the cold molecular material completely destabilized and returned to the unstable thermal phase. In the 40 and 60 M⊙ cases, coherent clumps of cold material are ejected from the cloud by the SN, potentially capable of further star formation.

Multi-Reanalysis Comparison of Variability in Analysis Increment of Column-Integrated Water Vapor Associated with Madden-Julian Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokoi, S.

2014-12-01

This study conducts a comparison of three reanalysis products (JRA-55, JRA-25, and ERA-Interim) in representation of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), focusing on column-integrated water vapor (CWV) that is considered as an essential variable for discussing MJO dynamics. Besides the analysis fields of CWV, which exhibit spatio-temporal distributions that are quite similar to satellite observations, CWV tendency simulated by forecast models and analysis increment calculated by data assimilation are examined. For JRA-55, it is revealed that, while its forecast model is able to simulate eastward propagation of the CWV anomaly, it tends to weaken the amplitude, and data assimilation process sustains the amplitude. The multi-reanalysis comparison of the analysis increment further reveals that this weakening bias is probably caused by excessively weak cloud-radiative feedback represented by the model. This bias in the feedback strength makes anomalous moisture supply by the vertical advection term in the CWV budget equation too insensitive to precipitation anomaly, resulting in reduction of the amplitude of CWV anomaly. ERA-Interim has a nearly opposite feature; the forecast model represents excessively strong feedback and unrealistically strengthens the amplitude, while the data assimilation weakens it. These results imply the necessity of accurate representation of the cloud-radiative feedback strength for a short-term MJO forecast, and may be evidence to support the argument that this feedback is essential for the existence of MJO. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that the multi-reanalysis comparison of the analysis increment will provide useful information for identifying model biases and, potentially, for estimating parameters that are difficult to estimate solely from observation data, such as gross moist stability.

Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4

DOE PAGES

Bitz, Cecilia M.; Shell, K. M.; Gent, P. R.; ...

2012-05-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. We use the radiative kernel technique to show that from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude, and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These twomore » warming effects are partially canceled by cooling due to slight decreases in the global mean water-vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed-layer, slab ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. We argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.« less

Exploring The Relation Between Upper Tropospheric (UT) Clouds and Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, G. L.; Stubenrauch, C.

2017-12-01

The importance of knowing the vertical transports of water vapor and condensate by atmospheric moist convection cannot be overstated. Vertical convective transports have wide-ranging influences on the Earth system, shaping weather, climate, the hydrological cycle and the composition of the atmosphere. These transports also influence the upper tropospheric cloudiness that exerts profound effects on climate. Although there are presently no direct observations to quantify these transports on the large scale, and there are no observations to constrain model assumptions about them, it might be possible to derive useful observations proxies of these transports and their influence. This talk will present results derived from a large community effort that has developed important observations data records that link clouds and convection. Steps to use these observational metrics to examine the relation between convection, UT clouds in both cloud and global scale models are exemplified and important feedbacks between high clouds, radiation and convection will be elucidated.

Interactive Classification of Construction Materials: Feedback Driven Framework for Annotation and Analysis of 3d Point Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, M. R.; Petrovic, V.; Kuester, F.

2017-08-01

Digital documentation of cultural heritage structures is increasingly more common through the application of different imaging techniques. Many works have focused on the application of laser scanning and photogrammetry techniques for the acquisition of threedimensional (3D) geometry detailing cultural heritage sites and structures. With an abundance of these 3D data assets, there must be a digital environment where these data can be visualized and analyzed. Presented here is a feedback driven visualization framework that seamlessly enables interactive exploration and manipulation of massive point cloud data. The focus of this work is on the classification of different building materials with the goal of building more accurate as-built information models of historical structures. User defined functions have been tested within the interactive point cloud visualization framework to evaluate automated and semi-automated classification of 3D point data. These functions include decisions based on observed color, laser intensity, normal vector or local surface geometry. Multiple case studies are presented here to demonstrate the flexibility and utility of the presented point cloud visualization framework to achieve classification objectives.

The effects of cloud radiative forcing on an ocean-covered planet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randall, David A.

1990-01-01

Cumulus anvil clouds, whose importance has been emphasized by observationalists in recent years, exert a very powerful influence on deep tropical convection by tending to radiatively destabilize the troposphere. In addition, they radiatively warm the column in which they reside. Their strong influence on the simulated climate argues for a much more refined parameterization in the General Circulation Model (GCM). For Seaworld, the atmospheric cloud radiative forcing (ACRF) has a powerful influence on such basic climate parameters as the strength of the Hadley circulation, the existence of a single narrow InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the precipitable water content of the atmosphere. It seems likely, however, that in the real world the surface CRF feeds back negatively to suppress moist convection and the associated cloudiness, and so tends to counteract the effects of the ACRF. Many current climate models have fixed sea surface temperatures but variable land-surface temperatures. The tropical circulations of such models may experience a position feedback due to ACRF over the oceans, and a negative or weak feedback due to surface CRF over the land. The overall effects of the CRF on the climate system can only be firmly established through much further analysis, which can benefit greatly from the use of a coupled ocean-atmospheric model.

How to assess the impact of a physical parameterization in simulations of moist convection?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabowski, Wojciech

2017-04-01

A numerical model capable in simulating moist convection (e.g., cloud-resolving model or large-eddy simulation model) consists of a fluid flow solver combined with required representations (i.e., parameterizations) of physical processes. The later typically include cloud microphysics, radiative transfer, and unresolved turbulent transport. Traditional approaches to investigate impacts of such parameterizations on convective dynamics involve parallel simulations with different parameterization schemes or with different scheme parameters. Such methodologies are not reliable because of the natural variability of a cloud field that is affected by the feedback between the physics and dynamics. For instance, changing the cloud microphysics typically leads to a different realization of the cloud-scale flow, and separating dynamical and microphysical impacts is difficult. This presentation will present a novel modeling methodology, the piggybacking, that allows studying the impact of a physical parameterization on cloud dynamics with confidence. The focus will be on the impact of cloud microphysics parameterization. Specific examples of the piggybacking approach will include simulations concerning the hypothesized deep convection invigoration in polluted environments, the validity of the saturation adjustment in modeling condensation in moist convection, and separation of physical impacts from statistical uncertainty in simulations applying particle-based Lagrangian microphysics, the super-droplet method.

Constraining the models' response of tropical low clouds to SST forcings using CALIPSO observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cesana, G.; Del Genio, A. D.; Ackerman, A. S.; Brient, F.; Fridlind, A. M.; Kelley, M.; Elsaesser, G.

2017-12-01

Low-cloud response to a warmer climate is still pointed out as being the largest source of uncertainty in the last generation of climate models. To date there is no consensus among the models on whether the tropical low cloudiness would increase or decrease in a warmer climate. In addition, it has been shown that - depending on their climate sensitivity - the models either predict deeper or shallower low clouds. Recently, several relationships between inter-model characteristics of the present-day climate and future climate changes have been highlighted. These so-called emergent constraints aim to target relevant model improvements and to constrain models' projections based on current climate observations. Here we propose to use - for the first time - 10 years of CALIPSO cloud statistics to assess the ability of the models to represent the vertical structure of tropical low clouds for abnormally warm SST. We use a simulator approach to compare observations and simulations and focus on the low-layered clouds (i.e. z < 3.2km) as well the more detailed level perspective of clouds (40 levels from 0 to 19km). Results show that in most models an increase of the SST leads to a decrease of the low-layer cloud fraction. Vertically, the clouds deepen namely by decreasing the cloud fraction in the lowest levels and increasing it around the top of the boundary-layer. This feature is coincident with an increase of the high-level cloud fraction (z > 6.5km). Although the models' spread is large, the multi-model mean captures the observed variations but with a smaller amplitude. We then employ the GISS model to investigate how changes in cloud parameterizations affect the response of low clouds to warmer SSTs on the one hand; and how they affect the variations of the model's cloud profiles with respect to environmental parameters on the other hand. Finally, we use CALIPSO observations to constrain the model by determining i) what set of parameters allows reproducing the observed relationships and ii) what are the consequences on the cloud feedbacks. These results point toward process-oriented constraints of low-cloud responses to surface warming and environmental parameters.

Does a Relationship Between Arctic Low Clouds and Sea Ice Matter?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Patrick C.

2016-01-01

Arctic low clouds strongly affect the Arctic surface energy budget. Through this impact Arctic low clouds influence important aspects of the Arctic climate system, namely surface and atmospheric temperature, sea ice extent and thickness, and atmospheric circulation. Arctic clouds are in turn influenced by these elements of the Arctic climate system, and these interactions create the potential for Arctic cloud-climate feedbacks. To further our understanding of potential Arctic cloudclimate feedbacks, the goal of this paper is to quantify the influence of atmospheric state on the surface cloud radiative effect (CRE) and its covariation with sea ice concentration (SIC). We build on previous research using instantaneous, active remote sensing satellite footprint data from the NASA A-Train. First, the results indicate significant differences in the surface CRE when stratified by atmospheric state. Second, there is a weak covariation between CRE and SIC for most atmospheric conditions. Third, the results show statistically significant differences in the average surface CRE under different SIC values in fall indicating a 3-5 W m(exp -2) larger LW CRE in 0% versus 100% SIC footprints. Because systematic changes on the order of 1 W m(exp -2) are sufficient to explain the observed long-term reductions in sea ice extent, our results indicate a potentially significant amplifying sea ice-cloud feedback, under certain meteorological conditions, that could delay the fall freeze-up and influence the variability in sea ice extent and volume. Lastly, a small change in the frequency of occurrence of atmosphere states may yield a larger Arctic cloud feedback than any cloud response to sea ice.

Local feedback mechanisms of the shallow water region around the Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Pengfei; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.; Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola; Wei, Jun

2014-10-01

The focus of this study is the local-scale air-sea feedback mechanisms over the shallow shelf water region (water depth <200 m) of the Maritime Continent (MC). MC was selected as a pilot study site for its extensive shallow water coverage, geographic complexity, and importance in the global climate system. To identify the local-scale air-sea feedback processes, we ran numerical experiments with perturbed surface layer water temperature using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model and an uncoupled ocean model. By examining the responses of the coupled and uncoupled models to the water temperature perturbation, we identify that, at a local-scale, a negative feedback process through the coupled dynamics that tends to restore the SST from its perturbation could dominate the shallow water region of the MC at a short time scale of several days. The energy budget shows that 38% of initial perturbation-induced heat energy was adjusted through the air-sea feedback mechanisms within 2 weeks, of which 58% is directly transferred into the atmosphere by the adjustment of latent heat flux due to the evaporative cooling mechanism. The increased inputs of heat and moisture into the lower atmosphere then modifies its thermal structure and increases the formation of low-level clouds, which act as a shield preventing incoming solar radiation from reaching the sea surface, accounts for 38% of the total adjustment of surface heat fluxes, serving as the second mechanism for the negative feedback process. The adjustment of sensible heat flux and net longwave radiation play a secondary role. The response of the coupled system to the SST perturbation suggests a response time scale of the coupled feedback process of about 3-5 days. The two-way air-sea feedback tightly links the surface heat fluxes, clouds and SST, and can play an important role in regulating the short-term variability of the SST over the shallow shelf water regions.

Mean-state acceleration of cloud-resolving models and large eddy simulations

DOE PAGES

Jones, C. R.; Bretherton, C. S.; Pritchard, M. S.

2015-10-29

In this study, large eddy simulations and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are routinely used to simulate boundary layer and deep convective cloud processes, aid in the development of moist physical parameterization for global models, study cloud-climate feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interaction, and as the heart of superparameterized climate models. These models are computationally demanding, placing practical constraints on their use in these applications, especially for long, climate-relevant simulations. In many situations, the horizontal-mean atmospheric structure evolves slowly compared to the turnover time of the most energetic turbulent eddies. We develop a simple scheme to reduce this time scale separation to accelerate themore » evolution of the mean state. Using this approach we are able to accelerate the model evolution by a factor of 2–16 or more in idealized stratocumulus, shallow and deep cumulus convection without substantial loss of accuracy in simulating mean cloud statistics and their sensitivity to climate change perturbations. As a culminating test, we apply this technique to accelerate the embedded CRMs in the Superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model by a factor of 2, thereby showing that the method is robust and stable to realistic perturbations across spatial and temporal scales typical in a GCM.« less

Convective Cloud and Rainfall Processes Over the Maritime Continent: Simulation and Analysis of the Diurnal Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gianotti, Rebecca L.

The Maritime Continent experiences strong moist convection, which produces significant rainfall and drives large fluxes of heat and moisture to the upper troposphere. Despite the importance of these processes to global circulations, current predictions of climate change over this region are still highly uncertain, largely due to inadequate representation of the diurnally-varying processes related to convection. In this work, a coupled numerical model of the land-atmosphere system (RegCM3-IBIS) is used to investigate how more physically-realistic representations of these processes can be incorporated into large-scale climate models. In particular, this work improves simulations of convective-radiative feedbacks and the role of cumulus clouds in mediating the diurnal cycle of rainfall. Three key contributions are made to the development of RegCM3-IBIS. Two pieces of work relate directly to the formation and dissipation of convective clouds: a new representation of convective cloud cover, and a new parameterization of convective rainfall production. These formulations only contain parameters that can be directly quantified from observational data, are independent of model user choices such as domain size or resolution, and explicitly account for subgrid variability in cloud water content and nonlinearities in rainfall production. The third key piece of work introduces a new method for representation of cloud formation within the boundary layer. A comprehensive evaluation of the improved model was undertaken using a range of satellite-derived and ground-based datasets, including a new dataset from Singapore's Changi airport that documents diurnal variation of the local boundary layer height. The performance of RegCM3-IBIS with the new formulations is greatly improved across all evaluation metrics, including cloud cover, cloud liquid water, radiative fluxes and rainfall, indicating consistent improvement in physical realism throughout the simulation. This work demonstrates that: (1) moist convection strongly influences the near surface environment by mediating the incoming solar radiation and net radiation at the surface; (2) dissipation of convective cloud via rainfall plays an equally important role in the convectiveradiative feedback as the formation of that cloud; and (3) over parts of the Maritime Continent, rainfall is a product of diurnally-varying convective processes that operate at small spatial scales, on the order of 1 km. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, libraries.mit.edu/docs - docs@mit.edu)

Transitions of cloud-topped marine boundary layers characterized by AIRS, MODIS, and a large eddy simulation model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yue, Qing; Kahn, Brian; Xiao, Heng

2013-08-16

Cloud top entrainment instability (CTEI) is a hypothesized positive feedback between entrainment mixing and evaporative cooling near the cloud top. Previous theoretical and numerical modeling studies have shown that the persistence or breakup of marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds may be sensitive to the CTEI parameter. Collocated thermodynamic profile and cloud observations obtained from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments are used to quantify the relationship between the CTEI parameter and the cloud-topped MBL transition from stratocumulus to trade cumulus in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Results derived from AIRS and MODIS are compared withmore » numerical results from the UCLA large eddy simulation (LES) model for both well-mixed and decoupled MBLs. The satellite and model results both demonstrate a clear correlation between the CTEI parameter and MBL cloud fraction. Despite fundamental differences between LES steady state results and the instantaneous snapshot type of observations from satellites, significant correlations for both the instantaneous pixel-scale observations and the long-term averaged spatial patterns between the CTEI parameter and MBL cloud fraction are found from the satellite observations and are consistent with LES results. This suggests the potential of using AIRS and MODIS to quantify global and temporal characteristics of the cloud-topped MBL transition.« less

Can CFMIP2 models reproduce the leading modes of cloud vertical structure in the CALIPSO-GOCCP observations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Fang; Yang, Song

2018-02-01

Using principal component (PC) analysis, three leading modes of cloud vertical structure (CVS) are revealed by the GCM-Oriented CALIPSO Cloud Product (GOCCP), i.e. tropical high, subtropical anticyclonic and extratropical cyclonic cloud modes (THCM, SACM and ECCM, respectively). THCM mainly reflect the contrast between tropical high clouds and clouds in middle/high latitudes. SACM is closely associated with middle-high clouds in tropical convective cores, few-cloud regimes in subtropical anticyclonic clouds and stratocumulus over subtropical eastern oceans. ECCM mainly corresponds to clouds along extratropical cyclonic regions. Models of phase 2 of Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP2) well reproduce the THCM, but SACM and ECCM are generally poorly simulated compared to GOCCP. Standardized PCs corresponding to CVS modes are generally captured, whereas original PCs (OPCs) are consistently underestimated (overestimated) for THCM (SACM and ECCM) by CFMIP2 models. The effects of CVS modes on relative cloud radiative forcing (RSCRF/RLCRF) (RSCRF being calculated at the surface while RLCRF at the top of atmosphere) are studied in terms of principal component regression method. Results show that CFMIP2 models tend to overestimate (underestimated or simulate the opposite sign) RSCRF/RLCRF radiative effects (REs) of ECCM (THCM and SACM) in unit global mean OPC compared to observations. These RE biases may be attributed to two factors, one of which is underestimation (overestimation) of low/middle clouds (high clouds) (also known as stronger (weaker) REs in unit low/middle (high) clouds) in simulated global mean cloud profiles, the other is eigenvector biases in CVS modes (especially for SACM and ECCM). It is suggested that much more attention should be paid on improvement of CVS, especially cloud parameterization associated with particular physical processes (e.g. downwelling regimes with the Hadley circulation, extratropical storm tracks and others), which may be crucial to reduce the CRF biases in current climate models.

Progressive Mid-latitude Afforestation: Local and Remote Climate Impacts in the Framework of Two Coupled Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lague, Marysa

Vegetation influences the atmosphere in complex and non-linear ways, such that large-scale changes in vegetation cover can drive changes in climate on both local and global scales. Large-scale land surface changes have been shown to introduce excess energy to one hemisphere, causing a shift in atmospheric circulation on a global scale. However, past work has not quantified how the climate response scales with the area of vegetation. Here, we systematically evaluate the response of climate to linearly increasing the area of forest cover over the northern mid-latitudes. We show that the magnitude of afforestation of the northern mid-latitudes determines the climate response in a non-linear fashion, and identify a threshold in vegetation-induced cloud feedbacks - a concept not previously addressed by large-scale vegetation manipulation experiments. Small increases in tree cover drive compensating cloud feedbacks, while latent heat fluxes reach a threshold after sufficiently large increases in tree cover, causing the troposphere to warm and dry, subsequently reducing cloud cover. Increased absorption of solar radiation at the surface is driven by both surface albedo changes and cloud feedbacks. We identify how vegetation-induced changes in cloud cover further feedback on changes in the global energy balance. We also show how atmospheric cross-equatorial energy transport changes as the area of afforestation is incrementally increased (a relationship which has not previously been demonstrated). This work demonstrates that while some climate effects (such as energy transport) of large scale mid-latitude afforestation scale roughly linearly across a wide range of afforestation areas, others (such as the local partitioning of the surface energy budget) are non-linear, and sensitive to the particular magnitude of mid-latitude forcing. Our results highlight the importance of considering both local and remote climate responses to large-scale vegetation change, and explore the scaling relationship between changes in vegetation cover and the resulting climate impacts.

Cloud radiative effects and changes simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Sun-Hee; Kim, Ok-Yeon; Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In

2017-07-01

Using 32 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models, this study examines the veracity in the simulation of cloud amount and their radiative effects (CREs) in the historical run driven by observed external radiative forcing for 1850-2005, and their future changes in the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario runs for 2006-2100. Validation metrics for the historical run are designed to examine the accuracy in the representation of spatial patterns for climatological mean, and annual and interannual variations of clouds and CREs. The models show large spread in the simulation of cloud amounts, specifically in the low cloud amount. The observed relationship between cloud amount and the controlling large-scale environment are also reproduced diversely by various models. Based on the validation metrics, four models—ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, HadGEM2-CC, and HadGEM2-ES—are selected as best models, and the average of the four models performs more skillfully than the multimodel ensemble average. All models project global-mean SST warming at the increase of the greenhouse gases, but the magnitude varies across the simulations between 1 and 2 K, which is largely attributable to the difference in the change of cloud amount and distribution. The models that simulate more SST warming show a greater increase in the net CRE due to reduced low cloud and increased incoming shortwave radiation, particularly over the regions of marine boundary layer in the subtropics. Selected best-performing models project a significant reduction in global-mean cloud amount of about -0.99% K-1 and net radiative warming of 0.46 W m-2 K-1, suggesting a role of positive feedback to global warming.

Sea-ice, clouds and atmospheric conditions in the arctic and their interactions as derived from a merged C3M data product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nag, Bappaditya

The polar regions of the world constitute an important sector in the global energy balance. Among other effects responsible for the change in the sea-ice cover like ocean circulation and ice-albedo feedback, the cloud-radiation feedback also plays a vital role in modulation of the Arctic environment. However the annual cycle of the clouds is very poorly represented in current global circulation models. This study aimed to explore the atmospheric conditions in the Arctic on an unprecedented spatial coverage spanning 70°N to 80°N through the use of a merged data product, C3MData (derived from NASA's A-Train Series). The following three topics provide outline on how this dataset can be used to accomplish a detailed analysis of the Arctic environment and provide the modelling community with first information to update their models aimed at better forecasts. (1)The three properties of the Arctic climate system to be studied using the C3MData are sea-ice, clouds, and the atmospheric conditions. The first topic is to document the present states of the three properties and also their time evolutions or their seasonal cycles. (2)The second topic is aimed at the interactions or the feedbacks processes among the three properties. For example, the immediate alteration in the fluxes and the feedbacks arising from the change in the sea-ice cover is investigated. Seasonal and regional variations are also studied. (3)The third topics is aimed at the processes in native spatial resolution that drive or accompany with sea ice melting and sea ice growth. Using a composite approach based on a classification due to surface type, it is found that limitation of the water vapour influx from the surface due to change in phase at the surface featuring open oceans or marginal sea-ice cover to complete sea-ice cover is a major determinant in the modulation of the atmospheric moisture. The impact of the cloud-radiative effects in the Arctic is found to vary with sea-ice cover and seasonally. The effect of the marginal sea-ice cover becomes more and more pronounced in the winter. The seasonal variation of the dependence of the atmospheric moisture on the surface and the subsequent feedback effects is controlled by the atmospheric stability measured as a difference between the potential temperature at the surface and the 700hPa level. A regional analysis of the same suggests that most of the depiction of the variations observed is contributed from the North Atlantic region.

Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Triggered by Strong Aerosol Emissions in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Kravitz, B.; Rasch, P. J.; Morrison, H.; Solomon, A.

2014-12-01

Previous process-oriented modeling studies have highlighted the dependence of effectiveness of cloud brightening by aerosols on cloud regimes in warm marine boundary layer. Cloud microphysical processes in clouds that contain ice, and hence the mechanisms that drive aerosol-cloud interactions, are more complicated than in warm clouds. Interactions between ice particles and liquid drops add additional levels of complexity to aerosol effects. A cloud-resolving model is used to study aerosol-cloud interactions in the Arctic triggered by strong aerosol emissions, through either geoengineering injection or concentrated sources such as shipping and fires. An updated cloud microphysical scheme with prognostic aerosol and cloud particle numbers is employed. Model simulations are performed in pure super-cooled liquid and mixed-phase clouds, separately, with or without an injection of aerosols into either a clean or a more polluted Arctic boundary layer. Vertical mixing and cloud scavenging of particles injected from the surface is still quite efficient in the less turbulent cold environment. Overall, the injection of aerosols into the Arctic boundary layer can delay the collapse of the boundary layer and increase low-cloud albedo. The pure liquid clouds are more susceptible to the increase in aerosol number concentration than the mixed-phase clouds. Rain production processes are more effectively suppressed by aerosol injection, whereas ice precipitation (snow) is affected less; thus the effectiveness of brightening mixed-phase clouds is lower than for liquid-only clouds. Aerosol injection into a clean boundary layer results in a greater cloud albedo increase than injection into a polluted one, consistent with current knowledge about aerosol-cloud interactions. Unlike previous studies investigating warm clouds, the impact of dynamical feedback due to precipitation changes is small. According to these results, which are dependent upon the representation of ice nucleation processes in the employed microphysical scheme, Arctic geoengineering/shipping could have substantial local radiative effects, but is unlikely to be effective as the sole means of counterbalancing warming due to climate change.

Preliminary mixed-layer model results for FIRE marine stratocumulus IFO conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barlow, R.; Nicholls, S.

1990-01-01

Some preliminary results from the Turton and Nicholls mixed layer model using typical FIRE boundary conditions are presented. The model includes entrainment and drizzle parametrizations as well as interactive long and shortwave radiation schemes. A constraint on the integrated turbulent kinetic energy balance ensures that the model remains energetically consistent at all times. The preliminary runs were used to identify the potentially important terms in the heat and moisture budgets of the cloud layer, and to assess the anticipated diurnal variability. These are compared with typical observations from the C130. Sensitivity studies also revealed the remarkable stability of these cloud sheets: a number of negative feedback mechanisms appear to operate to maintain the cloud over an extended time period. These are also discussed. The degree to which such a modelling approach can be used to explain observed features, the specification of boundary conditions and problems of interpretation in non-horizontally uniform conditions is also raised.

Comparison of tropical cyclogenesis processes in climate model and cloud-resolving model simulations using moist static energy budget analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, Allison; Camargo, Suzana; Sobel, Adam; Kim, Daehyun; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Reed, Kevin; Vecchi, Gabriel; Wehner, Michael; Zarzycki, Colin; Zhao, Ming

2017-04-01

In recent years, climate models have improved such that high-resolution simulations are able to reproduce the climatology of tropical cyclone activity with some fidelity and show some skill in seasonal forecasting. However biases remain in many models, motivating a better understanding of what factors control the representation of tropical cyclone activity in climate models. We explore the tropical cyclogenesis processes in five high-resolution climate models, including both coupled and uncoupled configurations. Our analysis framework focuses on how convection, moisture, clouds and related processes are coupled and employs budgets of column moist static energy and the spatial variance of column moist static energy. The latter was originally developed to study the mechanisms of tropical convective organization in idealized cloud-resolving models, and allows us to quantify the different feedback processes responsible for the amplification of moist static energy anomalies associated with the organization of convection and cyclogenesis. We track the formation and evolution of tropical cyclones in the climate model simulations and apply our analysis both along the individual tracks and composited over many tropical cyclones. We then compare the genesis processes; in particular, the role of cloud-radiation interactions, to those of spontaneous tropical cyclogenesis in idealized cloud-resolving model simulations.

A CloudSat Perspective of the Atmospheric Water Cycle and Precipitation: Recent Progress and Grand Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephens, Graeme L.; Im, Eastwood; Vane, Deborah

2012-01-01

Summary Global - mean precipitation - is controlled by Earth's energy balance and is a quantifiable consequence of the water vapor feedback. Predictability rests on the degree to which the water vapor feedback is predictable. Regional scale - to a significant extent, changes are shaped by atmospheric circulation changes but we do not know the extent to which regional scale changes are predictable. The impacts of changes to atmospheric circulation on regional scale water cycle changes can be dramatic. Process - scale - significant biases to the CHARACTER of precipitation (frequency and intensity) is related to how the precipitation process is parameterized in models. Aerosol - We still do not know the extent to which the water cycle is influenced by aerosol but anecdotal evidence is building. The character of precipitation is affected by the way aerosol influence clouds and thus affects the forcing of the climate system through the albedo effect. Observations - we still have a way to go and need to approach the problem in a more integrated way (tie clouds, aerosol and precipitation together and then link to soil moisture, etc). Globally our capabilities seriously lag behind the science and model development.

New Insights on Hydro-Climate Feedback Processes over the Tropical Ocean from TRMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Li, Xiaofan; Sui, C. H.

2002-01-01

In this paper, we study hydro-climate feedback processes over the tropical oceans, by examining the relationships among large scale circulation and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager-Sea Surface Temperature (TMI-SST), and a range of TRMM rain products including rain rate, cloud liquid water, precipitable water, cloud types and areal coverage, and precipitation efficiency. Results show that for a warm event (1998), the 28C threshold of convective precipitation is quite well defined over the tropical oceans. However, for a cold event (1999), the SST threshold is less well defined, especially over the central and eastern Pacific cold tongue, where stratiform rain occurs at much lower than 28 C. Precipitation rates and cloud liquid water are found to be more closely related to the large scale vertical motion than to the underlying SST. While total columnar water vapor is more strongly dependent on SST. For a large domain, over the eastern Pacific, we find that the areal extent of the cloudy region tends to shrink as the SST increases. Examination of the relationship between cloud liquid water and rain rate suggests that the residence time of cloud liquid water tends to be shorter, associated with higher precipitation efficiency in a warmer climate. It is hypothesized that the reduction in cloudy area may be influenced both by the shift in large scale cloud patterns in response to changes in large scale forcings, and possible increase in the cloud liquid water conversion to rain water in a warmer environment. Results of numerical experiments with the Goddard cloud resolving model to test the hypothesis will be discussed.

Feedback mechanisms of shallow convective clouds in a warmer climate as demonstrated by changes in buoyancy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagan, G.; Koren, I.; Altaratz, O.; Feingold, G.

2018-05-01

Cloud feedbacks could influence significantly the overall response of the climate system to global warming. Here we study the response of warm convective clouds to a uniform temperature change under constant relative humidity (RH) conditions. We show that an increase in temperature drives competing effects at the cloud scale: a reduction in the thermal buoyancy term and an increase in the humidity buoyancy term. Both effects are driven by the increased contrast in the water vapor content between the cloud and its environment, under warming with constant RH. The increase in the moisture content contrast between the cloud and its environment enhances the evaporation at the cloud margins, increases the entrainment, and acts to cool the cloud. Hence, there is a reduction in the thermal buoyancy term, despite the fact that theoretically this term should increase.

DMS role in ENSO cycle in the tropics: DMS Role in ENSO Cycle in Tropics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Li; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Russell, Lynn M.

We examined the multiyear mean and variability of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and its relationship to sulfate aerosols, as well as cloud microphysical and radiative properties. We conducted a 150 year simulation using preindustrial conditions produced by the Community Earth System Model embedded with a dynamic DMS module. The model simulated the mean spatial distribution of DMS emissions and burden, as well as sulfur budgets associated with DMS, SO2, H2SO4, and sulfate that were generally similar to available observations and inventories for a variety of regions. Changes in simulated sea-to-air DMS emissions and associated atmospheric abundance, along with associated aerosols andmore » cloud and radiative properties, were consistently dominated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the tropical Pacific region. Simulated DMS, aerosols, and clouds showed a weak positive feedback on sea surface temperature. This feedback suggests a link among DMS, aerosols, clouds, and climate on interannual timescales. The variability of DMS emissions associated with ENSO was primarily caused by a higher variation in wind speed during La Niña events. The simulation results also suggest that variations in DMS emissions increase the frequency of La Niña events but do not alter ENSO variability in terms of the standard deviation of the Niño 3 sea surface temperature anomalies.« less

A Study of Tropical thin Cirrus Clouds with Supervised Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodier, S. D.; Hu, Y.; Vaughan, M. A.

2007-12-01

ABSTRACT Accurate knowledge of the temporal frequency and spatial extent of optically thin cirrus is crucial to climate feedback analysis. Current global warming theory asserts that when the atmospheric concentration of CO2 increases, the outgoing longwave radiation at non-window wavelengths is reduced. If the Earth's net radiative balance is to remain stable, ground temperatures must rise in response, thereby increasing thermal emission to space. Current models do not account for subsequent changes in cloud cover, because this aspect of the climate feedback system is so poorly understood. One possible response of the cloud-climate feedback process is an increase in the global occurrence of thin cirrus clouds, driven by the increase in longwave cooling in the upper troposphere that results from higher CO2 concentrations. Exacerbating the difficulty of assessing the situation is the fact that passive remote sensing instruments cannot reliably detect cirrus clouds with optical depths less than ~0.3, because these clouds do not reflect enough sunlight to create a sufficient contrast with the Earth's surface. Now, however, the presence of thin cirrus can for the first time be accurately detected and systematically monitored by the combination of active and passive sensors onboard the CALIPSO satellite. Nevertheless, the data record is still quite limited, as CALIPSO has been in orbit for only 16 months. We have therefore initiated a multi-platform data fusion study to establish a methodology for extending the limited set of CALIPSO measurements to the existing 30-year record of passive remote sensing data, and thus improve our understanding of cloud feedback mechanisms. Using nighttime data from the first 10 days in April 2007 as a training set, we applied a general regression neural network (GRNN) to collocated samples of sea surface temperature (SST) reported by AMSR, brightness temperatures (BT) from the CALIPSO imaging infrared radiometer (IIR), and optical depths (OD) derived from the CALIPSO lidar measurements. The result is an accurate mapping of the optical depths derived from the active sensors to the brightness temperatures computed from the passive sensor measurements. Applying the trained network to this combination of passive sensor parameters, optical depths as small as 0.1 can be reliably retrieved. The relative uncertainties in the retrieval are reasonable, and can be improved significantly by use of a much larger training set.

Using Satellites to Understand Climate and Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fetzer, Eric

2007-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews the measurement of climate with the use of satellites. The basic greenhouse effect, Ice-albedo feedback, climate models and observations, aerosol-cloud interactions, and the Antarctic are discussed, along with the human effect on climate change.

AN EXPLORATION OF THE STATISTICAL SIGNATURES OF STELLAR FEEDBACK

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boyden, Ryan D.; Offner, Stella S. R.; Koch, Eric W.

2016-12-20

All molecular clouds are observed to be turbulent, but the origin, means of sustenance, and evolution of the turbulence remain debated. One possibility is that stellar feedback injects enough energy into the cloud to drive observed motions on parsec scales. Recent numerical studies of molecular clouds have found that feedback from stars, such as protostellar outflows and winds, injects energy and impacts turbulence. We expand upon these studies by analyzing magnetohydrodynamic simulations of molecular clouds, including stellar winds, with a range of stellar mass-loss rates and magnetic field strengths. We generate synthetic {sup 12}CO(1–0) maps assuming that the simulations aremore » at the distance of the nearby Perseus molecular cloud. By comparing the outputs from different initial conditions and evolutionary times, we identify differences in the synthetic observations and characterize these using common astrostatistics. We quantify the different statistical responses using a variety of metrics proposed in the literature. We find that multiple astrostatistics, including the principal component analysis, the spectral correlation function, and the velocity coordinate spectrum (VCS), are sensitive to changes in stellar mass-loss rates and/or time evolution. A few statistics, including the Cramer statistic and VCS, are sensitive to the magnetic field strength. These findings demonstrate that stellar feedback influences molecular cloud turbulence and can be identified and quantified observationally using such statistics.« less

Preparation of Ultracold Atom Clouds at the Shot Noise Level.

PubMed

Gajdacz, M; Hilliard, A J; Kristensen, M A; Pedersen, P L; Klempt, C; Arlt, J J; Sherson, J F

2016-08-12

We prepare number stabilized ultracold atom clouds through the real-time analysis of nondestructive images and the application of feedback. In our experiments, the atom number N∼10^{6} is determined by high precision Faraday imaging with uncertainty ΔN below the shot noise level, i.e., ΔN

A Cloud Hydrology and Albedo Synthesis Mission (CHASM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davies, Roger

2004-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the Cloud Hydrology and Albedo Synthesis Mission (CHASM). The interaction of clouds with radiation and the hydrological cycle represents a huge uncertainty in our understanding of climate science and the modeling of climate system feedbacks. Despite the recognized need for a unified treatment of cloud processes, the present global average values of remotely sensed cloud liquid water and theoretically accepted values used for cloud physics and precipitation modeling differ by an order of magnitude. This is due in part to sampling and saturation effects, as well as to threedimensional cloud structure effects. In recent work with the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) on Terra, we have gained new insights as to how the remote sensing approach could be significantly improved using a new instrument that combines passive optical (visible and near infrared) and microwave measurements, both as pushbroom scanners with multiple viewing angles, to the degree that measurements of liquid water path over deep convective clouds over land also become possible. This instrument would also have the ability of measuring height-resolved cloud-tracked winds using a hyper stereo retrieval technique. Deployment into a precessing low earth orbit would be optimal for measuring diurnal cloud activity. We have explored an instrument design concept for this that looks promising if we can establish partnerships that provide launch and bus capabilities.

Assessment of the Dehydration-Greenhouse Feedback Over the Arctic During Winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girard, E.; Stefanof, A.; Peltier-Champigny, M.; Munoz-Alpizar, R.; Dueymes, G.; Jean-Pierre, B.

2007-12-01

The effect of pollution-derived sulphuric acid aerosols on the aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions is investigated over the Arctic for February 1990. Observations suggest that acidic aerosols can decrease the heterogeneous nucleation rate of ice crystals and lower the homogeneous freezing temperature of haze droplets. Based on these observations, we hypothesize that the cloud thermodynamic phase is modified in polluted air mass (Arctic haze). Cloud ice number concentration is reduced, thus promoting further ice crystal growth by the Bergeron-Findeisen process. Hence, ice crystals reach larger sizes and low-level ice crystal precipitation from mixed-phase clouds increases. Enhanced dehydration of the lower troposphere contributes to decrease the water vapour greenhouse effect and cool the surface. A positive feedback is created between surface cooling and air dehydration, accelerating the cold air production. This process is referred to as the dehydration-greenhouse feedback (DGF). Simulations performed using an arctic regional climate model for February 1990, February and March 1985 and 1995 are used to assess the potential effect of the DGF on the Arctic climate. Results show that the DGF has an important effect over the Central and Eurasian Arctic, which is the coldest part of the Arctic with a surface cooling ranging between 0 and -3K. Moreover, the lower tropospheric cooling over the Eurasian and Central Arctic strengthens the atmospheric circulation at upper level, thus increasing the aerosol transport from the mid-latitudes and enhancing the DGF. Over warmer areas, the increased aerosol concentration (caused by the DGF) leads to longer cloud lifetime, which contributes to warm these areas. It is also shown that the maximum ice nuclei reduction must be of the order of 100 to get a significant effect.

Simulations of cloud-radiation interaction using large-scale forcing derived from the CINDY/DYNAMO northern sounding array

DOE PAGES

Wang, Shuguang; Sobel, Adam H.; Fridlind, Ann; ...

2015-09-25

The recently completed CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign observed two Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) events in the equatorial Indian Ocean from October to December 2011. Prior work has indicated that the moist static energy anomalies in these events grew and were sustained to a significant extent by radiative feedbacks. We present here a study of radiative fluxes and clouds in a set of cloud-resolving simulations of these MJO events. The simulations are driven by the large scale forcing dataset derived from the DYNAMO northern sounding array observations, and carried out in a doubly-periodic domain using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. simulatedmore » cloud properties and radiative fluxes are compared to those derived from the S-Polka radar and satellite observations. Furthermore, to accommodate the uncertainty in simulated cloud microphysics, a number of single moment (1M) and double moment (2M) microphysical schemes in the WRF model are tested.« less

In situ observations of Arctic cloud properties across the Beaufort Sea marginal ice zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corr, C.; Moore, R.; Winstead, E.; Thornhill, K. L., II; Crosbie, E.; Ziemba, L. D.; Beyersdorf, A. J.; Chen, G.; Martin, R.; Shook, M.; Corbett, J.; Smith, W. L., Jr.; Anderson, B. E.

2016-12-01

Clouds play an important role in Arctic climate. This is particularly true over the Arctic Ocean where feedbacks between clouds and sea-ice impact the surface radiation budget through modifications of sea-ice extent, ice thickness, cloud base height, and cloud cover. This work summarizes measurements of Arctic cloud properties made aboard the NASA C-130 aircraft over the Beaufort Sea during ARISE (Arctic Radiation - IceBridge Sea&Ice Experiment) in September 2014. The influence of surface-type on cloud properties is also investigated. Specifically, liquid water content (LWC), droplet concentrations, and droplet size distributions are compared for clouds sampled over three distinct regimes in the Beaufort Sea: 1) open water, 2) the marginal ice zone, and 3) sea-ice. Regardless of surface type, nearly all clouds intercepted during ARISE were liquid-phase clouds. However, differences in droplet size distributions and concentrations were evident for the surface types; clouds over the MIZ and sea-ice generally had fewer and larger droplets compared to those over open water. The potential implication these results have for understanding cloud-surface albedo climate feedbacks in Arctic are discussed.

Effect of aerosol feedback in the Korea Peninsula using WRF-CMAQ two-way coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, J.; Jeon, W.; Lee, H.; Lee, S.

2017-12-01

Aerosols influence the climate system by scattering and absorption of the solar radiation by altering the cloud radiative properties. For the reason, consideration of aerosol feedback is important numerical weather prediction and air quality models. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of aerosol feedback on PM10 simulation in Korean Peninsula using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and the community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) two-way coupled model. Simulations were conducted with the aerosol feedback (FB) and without (NFB). The results of the simulated solar radiation in the west part of Korea decreased due to the aerosol feedback effect. The feedback effect was significant in the west part of Korea Peninsula, showing high Particulate Matter (PM) estimates due to dense emissions and its long-range transport from China. The decrease of solar radiation lead to planetary boundary layer (PBL) height reduction, thereby dispersion of air pollutants such as PM is suppressed, and resulted in higher PM concentrations. These results indicate that aerosol feedback effects can play an important role in the simulation of meteorology and air quality over Korea Peninsula.

How Continuous Observations of Shortwave Reflectance Spectra Can Narrow the Range of Shortwave Climate Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldman, D.; Collins, W. D.; Wielicki, B. A.; Shea, Y.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Kuo, C.; Nguyen, N.

2017-12-01

Shortwave feedbacks are a persistent source of uncertainty for climate models and a large contributor to the diagnosed range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) for the international multi-model ensemble. The processes that contribute to these feedbacks affect top-of-atmosphere energetics and produce spectral signatures that may be time-evolving. We explore the value of such spectral signatures for providing an observational constraint on model ECS by simulating top-of-atmosphere shortwave reflectance spectra across much of the energetically-relevant shortwave bandpass (300 to 2500 nm). We present centennial-length shortwave hyperspectral simulations from low, medium and high ECS models that reported to the CMIP5 archive as part of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) in support of the CLimate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO). Our framework interfaces with CMIP5 archive results and is agnostic to the choice of model. We simulated spectra from the INM-CM4 model (ECS of 2.08 °K/2xCO2), the MIROC5 model (ECS of 2.70 °K/2xCO2), and the CSIRO Mk3-6-0 (ECS of 4.08 °K/2xCO2) based on those models' integrations of the RCP8.5 scenario for the 21st Century. This approach allows us to explore how perfect data records can exclude models of lower or higher climate sensitivity. We find that spectral channels covering visible and near-infrared water-vapor overtone bands can potentially exclude a low or high sensitivity model with under 15 years' of absolutely-calibrated data. These different spectral channels are sensitive to model cloud radiative effect and cloud height changes, respectively. These unprecedented calculations lay the groundwork for spectral simulations of perturbed-physics ensembles in order to identify those shortwave observations that can help narrow the range in shortwave model feedbacks and ultimately help reduce the stubbornly-large range in model ECS.

The Global Evolution of Giant Molecular Clouds. I. Model Formulation and Quasi-Equilibrium Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krumholz, Mark R.; Matzner, Christopher D.; McKee, Christopher F.

2006-12-01

We present semianalytic dynamical models for giant molecular clouds evolving under the influence of H II regions launched by newborn star clusters. In contrast to previous work, we neither assume that clouds are in virial or energetic equilibrium, nor do we ignore the effects of star formation feedback. The clouds, which we treat as spherical, can expand and contract homologously. Photoionization drives mass ejection; the recoil of cloud material both stirs turbulent motions and leads to an effective confining pressure. The balance between these effects and the decay of turbulent motions through isothermal shocks determines clouds' dynamical and energetic evolution. We find that for realistic values of the rates of turbulent dissipation, photoevaporation, and energy injection by H II regions, the massive clouds where most molecular gas in the Galaxy resides live for a few crossing times, in good agreement with recent observational estimates that large clouds in Local Group galaxies survive roughly 20-30 Myr. During this time clouds remain close to equilibrium, with virial parameters of 1-3 and column densities near 1022 H atoms cm-2, also in agreement with observed cloud properties. Over their lives they convert 5%-10% of their mass into stars, after which point most clouds are destroyed when a large H II region unbinds them. In contrast, small clouds like those found in the solar neighborhood only survive ~1 crossing time before being destroyed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn; Coppin, David

General circulation models show that as the surface temperature increases, the convective anvil clouds shrink. By analyzing radiative–convective equilibrium simulations, our work shows that this behavior is rooted in basic energetic and thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere: As the climate warms, the clouds rise and remain at nearly the same temperature, but find themselves in a more stable atmosphere; this enhanced stability reduces the convective outflow in the upper troposphere and decreases the anvil cloud fraction. By warming the troposphere and increasing the upper-tropospheric stability, the clustering of deep convection also reduces the convective outflow and the anvil cloud fraction.more » When clouds are radiatively active, this robust coupling between temperature, high clouds, and circulation exerts a positive feedback on convective aggregation and favors the maintenance of strongly aggregated atmospheric states at high temperatures. This stability iris mechanism likely contributes to the narrowing of rainy areas as the climate warms. Whether or not it influences climate sensitivity requires further investigation.« less

Can We Use Single-Column Models for Understanding the Boundary Layer Cloud-Climate Feedback?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dal Gesso, S.; Neggers, R. A. J.

2018-02-01

This study explores how to drive Single-Column Models (SCMs) with existing data sets of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs, with the aim of studying the boundary layer cloud response to climate change in the marine subtropical trade wind regime. The EC-EARTH SCM is driven with the large-scale tendencies and boundary conditions as derived from two different data sets, consisting of high-frequency outputs of GCM simulations. SCM simulations are performed near Barbados Cloud Observatory in the dry season (January-April), when fair-weather cumulus is the dominant low-cloud regime. This climate regime is characterized by a near equilibrium in the free troposphere between the long-wave radiative cooling and the large-scale advection of warm air. In the SCM, this equilibrium is ensured by scaling the monthly mean dynamical tendency of temperature and humidity such that it balances that of the model physics in the free troposphere. In this setup, the high-frequency variability in the forcing is maintained, and the boundary layer physics acts freely. This technique yields representative cloud amount and structure in the SCM for the current climate. Furthermore, the cloud response to a sea surface warming of 4 K as produced by the SCM is consistent with that of the forcing GCM.

The Response of Phanerozoic Surface Temperature to Variations in Atmospheric Oxygen Concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payne, R. C.; Britt, A. V.; Chen, H.; Kasting, J. F.; Catling, D. C.

2016-12-01

Recently, Poulsen et al. (2015) suggested that O2 has played a major role in climate forcing during the Phanerozoic. Specifically, they argued that decreased O2 levels during the Cenomanian stage of the mid-Cretaceous (94-100 Ma) could help explain the extremely warm climate during that time. The postulated warming mechanism involves decreased Rayleigh scattering by a thinner atmosphere, which reduces the planetary albedo and allows greater surface warming. This warming effect is then amplified by cloud feedbacks within their 3-D climate model. This increase in shortwave surface forcing, in their calculations, exceeds any decrease in the greenhouse effect caused by decreased O2, so that surface temperature increases by 2.1 K with low oxygen. Here, we use a 1-D radiative-convective climate model (with no cloud feedbacks) to check their results. We also include a self-consistent calculation of the change in atmospheric ozone and its effect on climate. Our results are opposite to those of Poulsen et al.: we find that the climate warms by 1.4 K at 35% O2 concentrations as a result of increased pressure broadening of CO2 and H2O absorption lines, and cools by 0.8 K at 10% O2 as a result of decreased pressure broadening. The surface temperature changes are only about 1 K either way, though, for reasonable variations in Phanerozoic O2 concentrations (10% - 35% by volume), and the Poulsen et al. (2016) results appear to be largely driven by cloud feedbacks in their model. Hence, it seems unlikely that changes in atmospheric O2 account for the warm climate of the Cenomanian. Other factors, such as a higher-than-expected sensitivity of climate to increased CO2 concentrations, may be required to obtain agreement with the paleoclimate data.

The Simulated Impact of Dimethyl Sulfide Emissions on the Earth System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Elliott, S.; Shrivastava, M. B.; Burrows, S. M.; Maltrud, M. E.; Lucas, D. D.; Ghan, S.

2015-12-01

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is one of many biologically derived gases and particles emitted from the ocean that has the potential to affect climate. In the case of DMS it is oxidized to sulfate, which increases the aerosol loading in the atmosphere either through nucleation or condensation on other aerosols, which in turn changes the energy balance of the Earth by reflection of sunlight either through direct reflection by the aerosols or by modifying clouds. We have previously shown that the geographical distribution of DMS emission from the ocean may be quite sensitive to climate changes, especially in the Southern Ocean. Our state-of-the-art sulfur-cycle Earth system model (ESM), based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) climate model, includes an ocean sulfur ecosystem model, the oxidation of DMS to sulfate by atmospheric chemistry, and the indirect effect of sulfate on radiation via clouds using the Modal Aerosol Model (MAM). Our multi-decadal simulations calculate the impact of DMS on the energy balance and climate of the Earth system, and its sensitivity/feedback to climate change. The estimate from our simulations is that DMS is responsible for ~6 W/m2 of reflected sunlight in the pre-industrial era (globally averaged), and ~4 W/m2 in the present era. The reduction is caused by increased competition with cloud condensation nuclei from anthropogenic aerosols in the present era, and therefore partially offsets the cooling from the anthropogenic aerosols. The distribution of these effects are not uniform, and doesn't necessarily follow the simulated DMS distribution, because some clouds are more sensitive to DMS derived sulfate than others, and there are surface feedbacks such as the ice-albedo feedback. Although our calculated impact of DMS is higher than some previous studies, it is not much higher than recent observational estimates (McCoy, et al., 2015). We are now porting these capabilities to the US Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) model. This work was conducted by the ACME and SciDAC programs of the Office of Biological and Environmental Research and the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research of the U.S. Department of Energy. Prepared by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Application of advanced data assimilation techniques to the study of cloud and precipitation feedbacks in the tropical climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Posselt, Derek J.

The research documented in this study centers around two topics: evaluation of the response of precipitating cloud systems to changes in the tropical climate system, and assimilation of cloud and precipitation information from remote-sensing platforms. The motivation for this work proceeds from the following outstanding problems: (1) Use of models to study the response of clouds to perturbations in the climate system is hampered by uncertainties in cloud microphysical parameterizations. (2) Though there is an ever-growing set of available observations, cloud and precipitation assimilation remains a difficult problem, particularly in the tropics. (3) Though it is widely acknowledged that cloud and precipitation processes play a key role in regulating the Earth's response to surface warming, the response of the tropical hydrologic cycle to climate perturbations remains largely unknown. The above issues are addressed in the following manner. First, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to quantify the sensitivity of the NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud resolving model (CRM) to changes in its cloud odcrnpbymiC8l parameters. TRMM retrievals of precipitation rate, cloud properties, and radiative fluxes and heating rates over the South China Sea are then assimilated into the GCE model to constrain cloud microphysical parameters to values characteristic of convection in the tropics, and the resulting observation-constrained model is used to assess the response of the tropical hydrologic cycle to surface warming. The major findings of this study are the following: (1) MCMC provides an effective tool with which to evaluate both model parameterizations and the assumption of Gaussian statistics used in optimal estimation procedures. (2) Statistics of the tropical radiation budget and hydrologic cycle can be used to effectively constrain CRM cloud microphysical parameters. (3) For 2D CRM simulations run with and without shear, the precipitation efficiency of cloud systems increases with increasing sea surface temperature, while the high cloud fraction and outgoing shortwave radiation decrease.

Numerical Simulations of Turbulent Molecular Clouds Regulated by Radiation Feedback Forces. II. Radiation-Gas Interactions and Outflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raskutti, Sudhir; Ostriker, Eve C.; Skinner, M. Aaron

2017-12-01

Momentum deposition by radiation pressure from young, massive stars may help to destroy molecular clouds and unbind stellar clusters by driving large-scale outflows. We extend our previous numerical radiation hydrodynamic study of turbulent star-forming clouds to analyze the detailed interaction between non-ionizing UV radiation and the cloud material. Our simulations trace the evolution of gas and star particles through self-gravitating collapse, star formation, and cloud destruction via radiation-driven outflows. These models are idealized in that we include only radiation feedback and adopt an isothermal equation of state. Turbulence creates a structure of dense filaments and large holes through which radiation escapes, such that only ˜50% of the radiation is (cumulatively) absorbed by the end of star formation. The surface density distribution of gas by mass as seen by the central cluster is roughly lognormal with {σ }{ln{{Σ }}}=1.3{--}1.7, similar to the externally projected surface density distribution. This allows low surface density regions to be driven outwards to nearly 10 times their initial escape speed {v}{esc}. Although the velocity distribution of outflows is broadened by the lognormal surface density distribution, the overall efficiency of momentum injection to the gas cloud is reduced because much of the radiation escapes. The mean outflow velocity is approximately twice the escape speed from the initial cloud radius. Our results are also informative for understanding galactic-scale wind driving by radiation, in particular, the relationship between velocity and surface density for individual outflow structures and the resulting velocity and mass distributions arising from turbulent sources.

Overview of the CERES Edition-4 Multilayer Cloud Property Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, F. L.; Minnis, P.; Sun-Mack, S.; Chen, Y.; Smith, R. A.; Brown, R. R.

2014-12-01

Knowledge of the cloud vertical distribution is important for understanding the role of clouds on earth's radiation budget and climate change. Since high-level cirrus clouds with low emission temperatures and small optical depths can provide a positive feedback to a climate system and low-level stratus clouds with high emission temperatures and large optical depths can provide a negative feedback effect, the retrieval of multilayer cloud properties using satellite observations, like Terra and Aqua MODIS, is critically important for a variety of cloud and climate applications. For the objective of the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES), new algorithms have been developed using Terra and Aqua MODIS data to allow separate retrievals of cirrus and stratus cloud properties when the two dominant cloud types are simultaneously present in a multilayer system. In this paper, we will present an overview of the new CERES Edition-4 multilayer cloud property datasets derived from Terra as well as Aqua. Assessment of the new CERES multilayer cloud datasets will include high-level cirrus and low-level stratus cloud heights, pressures, and temperatures as well as their optical depths, emissivities, and microphysical properties.

Improving Mixed-phase Cloud Parameterization in Climate Model with the ACRF Measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Zhien

Mixed-phase cloud microphysical and dynamical processes are still poorly understood, and their representation in GCMs is a major source of uncertainties in overall cloud feedback in GCMs. Thus improving mixed-phase cloud parameterizations in climate models is critical to reducing the climate forecast uncertainties. This study aims at providing improved knowledge of mixed-phase cloud properties from the long-term ACRF observations and improving mixed-phase clouds simulations in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The key accomplishments are: 1) An improved retrieval algorithm was developed to provide liquid droplet concentration for drizzling or mixed-phase stratiform clouds. 2) A new ice concentrationmore » retrieval algorithm for stratiform mixed-phase clouds was developed. 3) A strong seasonal aerosol impact on ice generation in Arctic mixed-phase clouds was identified, which is mainly attributed to the high dust occurrence during the spring season. 4) A suite of multi-senor algorithms was applied to long-term ARM observations at the Barrow site to provide a complete dataset (LWC and effective radius profile for liquid phase, and IWC, Dge profiles and ice concentration for ice phase) to characterize Arctic stratiform mixed-phase clouds. This multi-year stratiform mixed-phase cloud dataset provides necessary information to study related processes, evaluate model stratiform mixed-phase cloud simulations, and improve model stratiform mixed-phase cloud parameterization. 5). A new in situ data analysis method was developed to quantify liquid mass partition in convective mixed-phase clouds. For the first time, we reliably compared liquid mass partitions in stratiform and convective mixed-phase clouds. Due to the different dynamics in stratiform and convective mixed-phase clouds, the temperature dependencies of liquid mass partitions are significantly different due to much higher ice concentrations in convective mixed phase clouds. 6) Systematic evaluations of mixed-phase cloud simulations by CAM5 were performed. Measurement results indicate that ice concentrations control stratiform mixed-phase cloud properties. The improvement of ice concentration parameterization in the CAM5 was done in close collaboration with Dr. Xiaohong Liu, PNNL (now at University of Wyoming).« less

A Near-Global Survey of Cirrus Particle Size Using ISCCP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, Qingyuan; Rossow, William B.; Chou, Joyce; Welch, Ronald M.

1996-01-01

Cirrus is the most frequently occurring and widely distributed cloud type. The average annual frequency of occurrence for cirrus is 34% and its global coverage is about 20-30% (Warren et al. 1985). It strongly influences weather and climate processes through its effects on the radiation budget of the earth and the atmosphere (Liou 1986). Microphysics of cirrus is a critical component in understanding cloud-climate radiative interactions. For example, ice water content feedback is positive from a 1-D model study. But the feedback is substantially reduced upon the inclusion of small ice crystals (Sinha and Shine 1994). Due to the complexity caused by the non-spherical shape of ice crystals in cirrus, retrievals of cirrus properties are difficult. In recent years, advances have been made both in models and in case studies (e.g., Takano and Liou 1989, Young et al. 1994), but no global scale survey has been conducted. Similar to our previous near-global survey of droplet sizes of liquid water clouds (Han et al. 1994), a survey of cirrus ice crystal sizes is conducted over both continental and oceanic areas. We describe a method for retrieving cirrus particle size information on a near-global scale 50 deg S to 50 deg N using currently available satellite data from ISCCP. To retrieve cirrus particle size, we use a radiative transfer model that includes all major absorbing gases and cloud scattering/absorption to compute synthetic radiances as a function of satellite viewing geometry. Ice crystal shapes are assumed to be hexagonal columns and plates. The model results have been validated against clear sky observations and are consistent with the observed radiance range under cloudy conditions.

Testing Precipitation-Driven Feedback Models in Nearby Ellipticals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donahue, Megan

2016-09-01

We propose to analyze the inner cooling-time and entropy profiles of 12 elliptical galaxies with strong radio AGN. X-ray studies of galaxy-cluster cores and massive ellipticals indicate that feedback from an AGN replaces energy radiated by these objects. The AGN at 10 pc seems tuned to the thermodynamic state of gas on 10 kpc scales, but how that occurs is a resilient mystery. The precipitation model posits if the AGN does not provide enough heat, then thermal instabilities rain cold clouds on it, increasing accretion from Bondi to 100 times that rate when t_cool drops below 10 t_ff. We will test precipitation-driven feedback models by measuring t_cool and gravitational potential within the central kpc and to see how radio power is related to t_c/t_ff at small radii in these galaxies.

Microphysical modeling of cirrus. 2: Sensitivity studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, Eric J.; Toon, Owen B.; Westphal, Douglas L.; Kinne, Stefan; Heymsfield, Andrew J.

1994-01-01

The one-dimensional cirrus model described in part 1 of this issue has been used to study the sensitivity of simulated cirrus microphysical and radiative properties to poorly known model parameters, poorly understood physical processes, and environmental conditions. Model parameters and physical processes investigated include nucleation rate, mode of nucleation (e.g., homogeneous freezing of aerosols and liquid droplets or heterogeneous deposition), ice crystal shape, and coagulation. These studies suggest that the leading sources of uncertainty in the model are the phase change (liquid-solid) energy barrier and the ice-water surface energy which dominate the homogeneous freezing nucleation rate and the coagulation sticking efficiency at low temperatures which controls the production of large ice crystals (radii greater than 100 mcirons). Environmental conditions considered in sensitivity tests were CN size distribution, vertical wind speed, and cloud height. We found that (unlike stratus clouds) variations in the total number of condensation nuclei (NC) have little effect on cirrus microphysical and radiative properties, since nucleation occurs only on the largest CN at the tail of the size distribution. The total number of ice crystals which nucleate has little or no relationship to the number of CN present and depends primarily on the temperature and the cooling rate. Stronger updrafts (more rapid cooling) generate higher ice number densities, ice water content, cloud optical depth, and net radiative forcing. Increasing the height of the clouds in the model leads to an increase in ice number density, a decrease in effective radius, and a decrease in ice water content. The most prominent effect of increasing cloud height was a rapid increase in the net cloud radiative forcing which can be attributed to the change in cloud temperature as well as change in cloud ice size distributions. It has long been recognized that changes in cloud height or cloud area have the greatest potential for causing feedbacks on climate change. Our results suggest that variations in vertical velocity or cloud microphysical changes associatd with cloud height changes may also be important.

Observational determination of the greenhouse effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raval, A.; Ramanathan, V.

1989-01-01

Satellite measurements are used to quantify the atmospheric greenhouse effect, defined here as the infrared radiation energy trapped by atmospheric gases and clouds. The greenhouse effect is found to increase significantly with sea surface temperature. The rate of increase gives compelling evidence for the positive feedback between surface temperature, water vapor and the greenhouse effect; the magnitude of the feedback is consistent with that predicted by climate models. This study demonstrates an effective method for directly monitoring, from space, future changes in the greenhouse effect.

Observations of cloud and rainfall enhancement over irrigated agriculture in an arid environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Carreras, Luis; Marsham, John H.; Spracklen, Dominick V.

2017-04-01

The impact of irrigated agriculture on clouds and rainfall remains uncertain, particularly in less studied arid regions. Irrigated crops account for 20% of global cropland area, and non-renewable groundwater accounts for 20% of global irrigation water demand. Quantifying the feedbacks between agriculture and the atmosphere are therefore not only necessary to better understand the climate impacts of land-use change, but are also crucial for predicting long-term water use in water-scarce regions. Here we use high spatial-resolution satellite data to show the impact of irrigated crops in the arid environment of northern Saudi Arabia on cloud cover and rainfall patterns. Land surface temperatures over the crops are 5-10 K lower than their surroundings, linked to evapotranspiration rates of up to 20 mm/ month. Daytime cloud cover is up to 30% higher over the cropland compared to its immediate surroundings, and this enhancement is highly correlated with the seasonal variability in leaf area index. The cloud enhancement is associated with a much more rapid cloud cloud development during the morning. Afternoon rainfall is 85% higher over, and just downwind, of the cropland during the growing season, although rainfall remains very low in absolute terms. The feedback sign we find is the opposite to what has been observed in tropical and semiarid regions, where temperature gradients promote convergence and clouds on the warmer side of land-surface type discontinuities. This suggests that different processes are responsible for the land-atmosphere feedback in very dry environments, where lack of moisture may be a stronger constraint. Increased cloud and rainfall, and associated increases in diffuse radiation and reductions in temperature, can affect vegetation growth thus producing an internal feedback. These effects will therefore need to be taken into account to properly assess the impact of climate change on crop productivity and water use, as well as how global land-use change affects climate.

Thermodynamic control of anvil cloud amount

PubMed Central

Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn; Coppin, David; Becker, Tobias; Reed, Kevin A.; Voigt, Aiko

2016-01-01

General circulation models show that as the surface temperature increases, the convective anvil clouds shrink. By analyzing radiative–convective equilibrium simulations, we show that this behavior is rooted in basic energetic and thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere: As the climate warms, the clouds rise and remain at nearly the same temperature, but find themselves in a more stable atmosphere; this enhanced stability reduces the convective outflow in the upper troposphere and decreases the anvil cloud fraction. By warming the troposphere and increasing the upper-tropospheric stability, the clustering of deep convection also reduces the convective outflow and the anvil cloud fraction. When clouds are radiatively active, this robust coupling between temperature, high clouds, and circulation exerts a positive feedback on convective aggregation and favors the maintenance of strongly aggregated atmospheric states at high temperatures. This stability iris mechanism likely contributes to the narrowing of rainy areas as the climate warms. Whether or not it influences climate sensitivity requires further investigation. PMID:27412863

Thermodynamic control of anvil cloud amount

DOE PAGES

Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn; Coppin, David; ...

2016-07-13

General circulation models show that as the surface temperature increases, the convective anvil clouds shrink. By analyzing radiative–convective equilibrium simulations, our work shows that this behavior is rooted in basic energetic and thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere: As the climate warms, the clouds rise and remain at nearly the same temperature, but find themselves in a more stable atmosphere; this enhanced stability reduces the convective outflow in the upper troposphere and decreases the anvil cloud fraction. By warming the troposphere and increasing the upper-tropospheric stability, the clustering of deep convection also reduces the convective outflow and the anvil cloud fraction.more » When clouds are radiatively active, this robust coupling between temperature, high clouds, and circulation exerts a positive feedback on convective aggregation and favors the maintenance of strongly aggregated atmospheric states at high temperatures. This stability iris mechanism likely contributes to the narrowing of rainy areas as the climate warms. Whether or not it influences climate sensitivity requires further investigation.« less

The role of ice nuclei recycling in the maintenance of cloud ice in Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus

DOE PAGES

Solomon, Amy; Feingold, G.; Shupe, M. D.

2015-09-25

This study investigates the maintenance of cloud ice production in Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus in large eddy simulations that include a prognostic ice nuclei (IN) formulation and a diurnal cycle. Balances derived from a mixed-layer model and phase analyses are used to provide insight into buffering mechanisms that maintain ice in these cloud systems. We find that, for the case under investigation, IN recycling through subcloud sublimation considerably prolongs ice production over a multi-day integration. This effective source of IN to the cloud dominates over mixing sources from above or below the cloud-driven mixed layer. Competing feedbacks between dynamical mixing andmore » recycling are found to slow the rate of ice lost from the mixed layer when a diurnal cycle is simulated. Furthermore, the results of this study have important implications for maintaining phase partitioning of cloud ice and liquid that determine the radiative forcing of Arctic mixed-phase clouds.« less

The role of ice nuclei recycling in the maintenance of cloud ice in Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Solomon, Amy; Feingold, G.; Shupe, M. D.

This study investigates the maintenance of cloud ice production in Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus in large eddy simulations that include a prognostic ice nuclei (IN) formulation and a diurnal cycle. Balances derived from a mixed-layer model and phase analyses are used to provide insight into buffering mechanisms that maintain ice in these cloud systems. We find that, for the case under investigation, IN recycling through subcloud sublimation considerably prolongs ice production over a multi-day integration. This effective source of IN to the cloud dominates over mixing sources from above or below the cloud-driven mixed layer. Competing feedbacks between dynamical mixing andmore » recycling are found to slow the rate of ice lost from the mixed layer when a diurnal cycle is simulated. Furthermore, the results of this study have important implications for maintaining phase partitioning of cloud ice and liquid that determine the radiative forcing of Arctic mixed-phase clouds.« less

A new mechanical stellar wind feedback model for the Rosette Nebula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wareing, C. J.; Pittard, J. M.; Wright, N. J.; Falle, S. A. E. G.

2018-04-01

The famous Rosette Nebula has an evacuated central cavity formed from the stellar winds ejected from the 2-6 Myr old codistant and comoving central star cluster NGC 2244. However, with upper age estimates of less than 110 000 yr, the central cavity is too young compared to NGC 2244 and existing models do not reproduce its properties. A new proper motion study herein using Gaia data reveals the ejection of the most massive star in the Rosette, HD 46223, from NGC 2244 occurred 1.73 (+0.34, -0.25) Myr (1σ uncertainty) in the past. Assuming this ejection was at the birth of the most massive stars in NGC 2244, including the dominant centrally positioned HD 46150, the age is set for the famous ionized region at more than 10 times that derived for the cavity. Here, we are able to reproduce the structure of the Rosette Nebula, through simulation of mechanical stellar feedback from a 40 M⊙ star in a thin sheet-like molecular cloud. We form the 135 000 M⊙ cloud from thermally unstable diffuse interstellar medium (ISM) under the influence of a realistic background magnetic field with thermal/magnetic pressure equilibrium. Properties derived from a snapshot of the simulation at 1.5 Myr, including cavity size, stellar age, magnetic field, and resulting inclination to the line of sight, match those derived from observations. An elegant explanation is thus provided for the stark contrast in age estimates based on realistic diffuse ISM properties, molecular cloud formation and stellar wind feedback.

Erratum: Correction to: On the relative strength of radiative feedbacks under climate variability and change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colman, Robert; Hanson, Lawson

2018-06-01

Two errors were discovered in the calculation of decadal feedbacks under RCP8.5: (i) cloud short wave (SW) and total feedbacks were miscalculated; and (ii) surface albedo and SW water vapour feedbacks were swapped when calculating regressions with climate change feedbacks.

Role of clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interaction in 20th century simulations with GISS ModelE2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazarenko, L.; Rind, D. H.; Bauer, S.; Del Genio, A. D.

2015-12-01

Simulations of aerosols, clouds and their interaction contribute to the major source of uncertainty in predicting the changing Earth's energy and in estimating future climate. Anthropogenic contribution of aerosols affects the properties of clouds through aerosol indirect effects. Three different versions of NASA GISS global climate model are presented for simulation of the twentieth century climate change. All versions have fully interactive tracers of aerosols and chemistry in both the troposphere and stratosphere. All chemical species are simulated prognostically consistent with atmospheric physics in the model and the emissions of short-lived precursors [Shindell et al., 2006]. One version does not include the aerosol indirect effect on clouds. The other two versions include a parameterization of the interactive first indirect aerosol effect on clouds following Menon et al. [2010]. One of these two models has the Multiconfiguration Aerosol Tracker of Mixing state (MATRIX) that permits detailed treatment of aerosol mixing state, size, and aerosol-cloud activation. The main purpose of this study is evaluation of aerosol-clouds interactions and feedbacks, as well as cloud and aerosol radiative forcings, for the twentieth century climate under different assumptions and parameterizations for aerosol, clouds and their interactions in the climate models. The change of global surface air temperature based on linear trend ranges from +0.8°C to +1.2°C between 1850 and 2012. Water cloud optical thickness increases with increasing temperature in all versions with the largest increase in models with interactive indirect effect of aerosols on clouds, which leads to the total (shortwave and longwave) cloud radiative cooling trend at the top of the atmosphere. Menon, S., D. Koch, G. Beig, S. Sahu, J. Fasullo, and D. Orlikowski (2010), Black carbon aerosols and the third polar ice cap, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10,4559-4571, doi:10.5194/acp-10-4559-2010. Shindell, D., G. Faluvegi, N. Unger, E. Aguilar, G.A. Schmidt, D.M. Koch, S.E. Bauer, and J.R. Miller (2006), Simulations of preindustrial, present-day, and 2100 conditions in the NASA GISS composition and climate model G-PUCCINI, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 4427-4459.

Millimeter- and Submillimeter-Wave Remote Sensing Using Small Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ehsan, N.; Esper, J.; Piepmeier, J.; Racette, P.; Wu, D.

2014-01-01

Cloud ice properties and processes play fundamental roles in atmospheric radiation and precipitation. Limited knowledge and poor representation of clouds in global climate models have led to large uncertainties about cloud feedback processes under climate change. Ice clouds have been used as a tuning parameter in the models to force agreement with observations of the radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere, and precipitation at the bottom. The lack of ice cloud measurements has left the cloud processes at intermediate altitudes unconstrained. Millimeter (mm) and submillimeter (submm)-wave radiometry is widely recognized for its potential to fill the cloud measurement gap in the middle and upper troposphere. Analyses have shown that channels from 183900 GHz offer good sensitivity to ice cloud scattering and can provide ice water path (IWP) products to an accuracy of 25 by simultaneously retrieving ice particle size (Dme) and IWP. Therefore, it is highly desirable to develop a cost-effective, compact mm/submm-wave instrument for cloud observations that can be deployed on future small satellites.This paper presents a conceptual study for a mm/submm-wave instrument for multispectral measurements of ice clouds. It discusses previous work at these frequencies by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the current instrument study, as well as receiver architectures and their anticipated performance. And finally, it describes a microsatellite prototype intended for use with this mm/submm-wave instrument.

Toward low-cloud-permitting cloud superparameterization with explicit boundary layer turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parishani, Hossein; Pritchard, Michael S.; Bretherton, Christopher S.

Systematic biases in the representation of boundary layer (BL) clouds are a leading source of uncertainty in climate projections. A variation on superparameterization (SP) called “ultraparameterization” (UP) is developed, in which the grid spacing of the cloud-resolving models (CRMs) is fine enough (250 × 20 m) to explicitly capture the BL turbulence, associated clouds, and entrainment in a global climate model capable of multiyear simulations. UP is implemented within the Community Atmosphere Model using 2° resolution (~14,000 embedded CRMs) with one-moment microphysics. By using a small domain and mean-state acceleration, UP is computationally feasible today and promising for exascale computers.more » Short-duration global UP hindcasts are compared with SP and satellite observations of top-of-atmosphere radiation and cloud vertical structure. The most encouraging improvement is a deeper BL and more realistic vertical structure of subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) clouds, due to stronger vertical eddy motions that promote entrainment. Results from 90 day integrations show climatological errors that are competitive with SP, with a significant improvement in the diurnal cycle of offshore Sc liquid water. Ongoing concerns with the current UP implementation include a dim bias for near-coastal Sc that also occurs less prominently in SP and a bright bias over tropical continental deep convection zones. Nevertheless, UP makes global eddy-permitting simulation a feasible and interesting alternative to conventionally parameterized GCMs or SP-GCMs with turbulence parameterizations for studying BL cloud-climate and cloud-aerosol feedback.« less

Toward low-cloud-permitting cloud superparameterization with explicit boundary layer turbulence

DOE PAGES

Parishani, Hossein; Pritchard, Michael S.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; ...

2017-06-19

Systematic biases in the representation of boundary layer (BL) clouds are a leading source of uncertainty in climate projections. A variation on superparameterization (SP) called “ultraparameterization” (UP) is developed, in which the grid spacing of the cloud-resolving models (CRMs) is fine enough (250 × 20 m) to explicitly capture the BL turbulence, associated clouds, and entrainment in a global climate model capable of multiyear simulations. UP is implemented within the Community Atmosphere Model using 2° resolution (~14,000 embedded CRMs) with one-moment microphysics. By using a small domain and mean-state acceleration, UP is computationally feasible today and promising for exascale computers.more » Short-duration global UP hindcasts are compared with SP and satellite observations of top-of-atmosphere radiation and cloud vertical structure. The most encouraging improvement is a deeper BL and more realistic vertical structure of subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) clouds, due to stronger vertical eddy motions that promote entrainment. Results from 90 day integrations show climatological errors that are competitive with SP, with a significant improvement in the diurnal cycle of offshore Sc liquid water. Ongoing concerns with the current UP implementation include a dim bias for near-coastal Sc that also occurs less prominently in SP and a bright bias over tropical continental deep convection zones. Nevertheless, UP makes global eddy-permitting simulation a feasible and interesting alternative to conventionally parameterized GCMs or SP-GCMs with turbulence parameterizations for studying BL cloud-climate and cloud-aerosol feedback.« less

Toward low-cloud-permitting cloud superparameterization with explicit boundary layer turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parishani, Hossein; Pritchard, Michael S.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Wyant, Matthew C.; Khairoutdinov, Marat

2017-07-01

Systematic biases in the representation of boundary layer (BL) clouds are a leading source of uncertainty in climate projections. A variation on superparameterization (SP) called "ultraparameterization" (UP) is developed, in which the grid spacing of the cloud-resolving models (CRMs) is fine enough (250 × 20 m) to explicitly capture the BL turbulence, associated clouds, and entrainment in a global climate model capable of multiyear simulations. UP is implemented within the Community Atmosphere Model using 2° resolution (˜14,000 embedded CRMs) with one-moment microphysics. By using a small domain and mean-state acceleration, UP is computationally feasible today and promising for exascale computers. Short-duration global UP hindcasts are compared with SP and satellite observations of top-of-atmosphere radiation and cloud vertical structure. The most encouraging improvement is a deeper BL and more realistic vertical structure of subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) clouds, due to stronger vertical eddy motions that promote entrainment. Results from 90 day integrations show climatological errors that are competitive with SP, with a significant improvement in the diurnal cycle of offshore Sc liquid water. Ongoing concerns with the current UP implementation include a dim bias for near-coastal Sc that also occurs less prominently in SP and a bright bias over tropical continental deep convection zones. Nevertheless, UP makes global eddy-permitting simulation a feasible and interesting alternative to conventionally parameterized GCMs or SP-GCMs with turbulence parameterizations for studying BL cloud-climate and cloud-aerosol feedback.

Parameterized Radiative Convective Equilibrium Across a Range of Domains: A Unifying Tool for General Circulation Models and High Resolution Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvers, L. G.; Stevens, B. B.; Mauritsen, T.; Marco, G. A.

2015-12-01

The characteristics of clouds in General Circulation Models (GCMs) need to be constrained in a consistent manner with theory, observations, and high resolution models (HRMs). One way forward is to base improvements of parameterizations on high resolution studies which resolve more of the important dynamical motions and allow for less parameterizations. This is difficult because of the numerous differences between GCMs and HRMs, both technical and theoretical. Century long simulations at resolutions of 20-250 km on a global domain are typical of GCMs while HRMs often simulate hours at resolutions of 0.1km-5km on domains the size of a single GCM grid cell. The recently developed mode ICON provides a flexible framework which allows many of these difficulties to be overcome. This study uses the ICON model to compute SST perturbation simulations on multiple domains in a state of Radiative Convective Equilibrium (RCE) with parameterized convection. The domains used range from roughly the size of Texas to nearly half of Earth's surface area. All simulations use a doubly periodic domain with an effective distance between cell centers of 13 km and are integrated to a state of statistical stationarity. The primary analysis examines the mean characteristics of the cloud related fields and the feedback parameter of the simulations. It is shown that the simulated atmosphere of a GCM in RCE is sufficiently similar across a range of domain sizes to justify the use of RCE to study both a GCM and a HRM on the same domain with the goal of improved constraints on the parameterized clouds. The simulated atmospheres are comparable to what could be expected at midday in a typical region of Earth's tropics under calm conditions. In particular, the differences between the domains are smaller than differences which result from choosing different physics schemes. Significant convective organization is present on all domain sizes with a relatively high subsidence fraction. Notwithstanding the overall qualitative similarities of the simulations, quantitative differences lead to a surprisingly large sensitivity of the feedback parameter. This range of the feedback parameter is more than a factor of two and is similar to the range of feedbacks which were obtained by the CMIP5 models.

Development of a cloud-based application for the Fracture Liaison Service model of care.

PubMed

Holzmueller, C G; Karp, S; Zeldow, D; Lee, D B; Thompson, D A

2016-02-01

The aims of this study are to develop a cloud-based application of the Fracture Liaison Service for practitioners to coordinate the care of osteoporotic patients after suffering primary fractures and provide a performance feedback portal for practitioners to determine quality of care. The application provides continuity of care, improved patient outcomes, and reduced medical costs. The purpose of this study is to describe the content development and functionality of a cloud-based application to broadly deploy the Fracture Liaison Service (FLS) to coordinate post-fracture care for osteoporotic patients. The Bone Health Collaborative developed the FLS application in 2013 to support practitioners' access to information and management of patients and provide a feedback portal for practitioners to track their performance in providing quality care. A five-step protocol (identify, inform, initiate, investigate, and iterate) organized osteoporotic post-fracture care-related tasks and timelines for the application. A range of descriptive data about the patient, their medical condition, therapies and care, and current providers can be collected. Seven quality of care measures from the National Quality Forum, The Joint Commission, and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services can be tracked through the application. There are five functional areas including home, tasks, measures, improvement, and data. The home, tasks, and data pages are used to enter patient information and coordinate care using the five-step protocol. Measures and improvement pages are used to enter quality measures and provide practitioners with continuous performance feedback. The application resides within a portal, running on a multitenant, private cloud-based Avedis enterprise registry platform. All data are encrypted in transit and users access the application using a password from any common web browser. The application could spread the FLS model of care across the US health care system, provide continuity of care, effectively manage osteoporotic patients, improve outcomes, and reduce medical costs.

Ionization-induced star formation - IV. Triggering in bound clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dale, J. E.; Ercolano, B.; Bonnell, I. A.

2012-12-01

We present a detailed study of star formation occurring in bound star-forming clouds under the influence of internal ionizing feedback from massive stars across a spectrum of cloud properties. We infer which objects are triggered by comparing our feedback simulations with control simulations in which no feedback was present. We find that feedback always results in a lower star formation efficiency and usually but not always results in a larger number of stars or clusters. Cluster mass functions are not strongly affected by feedback, but stellar mass functions are biased towards lower masses. Ionization also affects the geometrical distribution of stars in ways that are robust against projection effects, but may make the stellar associations more or less subclustered depending on the background cloud environment. We observe a prominent pillar in one simulation which is the remains of an accretion flow feeding the central ionizing cluster of its host cloud and suggest that this may be a general formation mechanism for pillars such as those observed in M16. We find that the association of stars with structures in the gas such as shells or pillars is a good but by no means foolproof indication that those stars have been triggered and we conclude overall that it is very difficult to deduce which objects have been induced to form and which formed spontaneously simply from observing the system at a single time.

Kiloparsec-scale Simulations of Star Formation in Disk Galaxies. IV. Regulation of Galactic Star Formation Rates by Stellar Feedback

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Butler, Michael J.; Tan, Jonathan C.; Teyssier, Romain

2017-06-01

Star formation from the interstellar medium of galactic disks is a basic process controlling the evolution of galaxies. Understanding the star formation rate (SFR) in a local patch of a disk with a given gas mass is thus an important challenge for theoretical models. Here we simulate a kiloparsec region of a disk, following the evolution of self-gravitating molecular clouds down to subparsec scales, as they form stars that then inject feedback energy by dissociating and ionizing UV photons and supernova explosions. We assess the relative importance of each feedback mechanism. We find that H{sub 2}-dissociating feedback results in themore » largest absolute reduction in star formation compared to the run with no feedback. Subsequently adding photoionization feedback produces a more modest reduction. Our fiducial models that combine all three feedback mechanisms yield, without fine-tuning, SFRs that are in excellent agreement with observations, with H{sub 2}-dissociating photons playing a crucial role. Models that only include supernova feedback—a common method in galaxy evolution simulations—settle to similar SFRs, but with very different temperatures and chemical states of the gas, and with very different spatial distributions of young stars.« less

Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bender, Frida A-M.; Rananathan, V.; Tselioudis, G.

2012-01-01

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied by a regional reduction in total cloud cover. This decrease in cloudiness can primarily be ascribed to low level clouds, whereas the upper level cloud fraction actually increases, according to ISCCP. Independent satellite observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are consistent with the changes in total cloud cover. The shift in cloudiness is also supported by a shift in central position of the mid-troposphere meridional temperature gradient. We do not find support for aerosols playing a significant role in the satellite observed changes in cloudiness. The observed changes in storm track cloudiness can be related to local cloud-induced changes in radiative forcing, using ERBE and CERES radiative fluxes. The shortwave and the longwave components are found to act together, leading to a positive (warming) net radiative effect in response to the cloud changes in the storm track regions, indicative of positive cloud feedback. Among the CMIP3 models that simulate poleward shifts in all four storm track areas, all but one show decreasing cloud amount on a global mean scale in response to increased CO2 forcing, further consistent with positive cloud feedback. Models with low equilibrium climate sensitivity to a lesser extent than higher-sensitivity models simulate a poleward shift of the storm tracks.

New CERES Data Examined for Evidence of Tropical Iris Feedback

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chambers, Lin H.; Lin, Bing; Young, David F.

2002-01-01

New data products are available from the CERES instrument, a part of the NASA Earth Observing System. The Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) product combines radiative fluxes with extensive information on the cloud conditions in the footprint, which are retrieved using the co-orbiting imager instrument. These data have been analyzed to more accurately define the radiative properties for the various regions of the recently-proposed adaptive infrared Iris. A variety of ways of defining the cloudy moist region were examined. According to CERES, the net radiative flux for the cloudy moist region ranges between 28 and 54 W/m2 depending on the specific definition used. This is in contrast to the value of 123 W/m2 which was somewhat subjectively assigned by LCH. This simple model may miss many feedbacks in the climate system, but it should provide a rough range of the climate variations if the physics of the Iris is correct. There is some question whether the change in cloudy moist area with cloud-weighted SST actually represents a useful quantity, and whether extrapolating it from a regional variation to a global response to warmer climate is appropriate. Regardless, the current results show that the proposed Iris feedback is very much weaker when objectively-determined radiative properties are used in the model.

Evaluating Land-Atmosphere Moisture Feedbacks in Earth System Models With Spaceborne Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levine, P. A.; Randerson, J. T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.

2016-12-01

We have developed a set of metrics for measuring the feedback loop between the land surface moisture state and the atmosphere globally on an interannual time scale. These metrics consider both the forcing of terrestrial water storage (TWS) on subsequent atmospheric conditions as well as the response of TWS to antecedent atmospheric conditions. We designed our metrics to take advantage of more than one decade's worth of satellite observations of TWS from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) along with atmospheric variables from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and Clouds and the Earths Radiant Energy System (CERES). Metrics derived from spaceborne observations were used to evaluate the strength of the feedback loop in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LENS) and in several models that contributed simulations to Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We found that both forcing and response limbs of the feedback loop were generally stronger in tropical and temperate regions in CMIP5 models and even more so in LENS compared to satellite observations. Our analysis suggests that models may overestimate the strength of the feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere, which is consistent with previous studies conducted across different spatial and temporal scales.

Feedbacks between air pollution and weather, Part 1: Effects on weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makar, P. A.; Gong, W.; Milbrandt, J.; Hogrefe, C.; Zhang, Y.; Curci, G.; Žabkar, R.; Im, U.; Balzarini, A.; Baró, R.; Bianconi, R.; Cheung, P.; Forkel, R.; Gravel, S.; Hirtl, M.; Honzak, L.; Hou, A.; Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Langer, M.; Moran, M. D.; Pabla, B.; Pérez, J. L.; Pirovano, G.; San José, R.; Tuccella, P.; Werhahn, J.; Zhang, J.; Galmarini, S.

2015-08-01

The meteorological predictions of fully coupled air-quality models running in ;feedback; versus ;no-feedback; simulations were compared against each other and observations as part of Phase 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative. In the ;no-feedback; mode, the aerosol direct and indirect effects were disabled, with the models reverting to either climatologies of aerosol properties, or a no-aerosol weather simulation. In the ;feedback; mode, the model-generated aerosols were allowed to modify the radiative transfer and/or cloud formation parameterizations of the respective models. Annual simulations with and without feedbacks were conducted on domains over North America for the years 2006 and 2010, and over Europe for the year 2010. The incorporation of feedbacks was found to result in systematic changes to forecast predictions of meteorological variables, both in time and space, with the largest impacts occurring in the summer and near large sources of pollution. Models incorporating only the aerosol direct effect predicted feedback-induced reductions in temperature, surface downward and upward shortwave radiation, precipitation and PBL height, and increased upward shortwave radiation, in both Europe and North America. The feedback response of models incorporating both the aerosol direct and indirect effects varied across models, suggesting the details of implementation of the indirect effect have a large impact on model results, and hence should be a focus for future research. The feedback response of models incorporating both direct and indirect effects was also consistently larger in magnitude to that of models incorporating the direct effect alone, implying that the indirect effect may be the dominant process. Comparisons across modelling platforms suggested that direct and indirect effect feedbacks may often act in competition: the sign of residual changes associated with feedbacks often changed between those models incorporating the direct effect alone versus those incorporating both feedback processes. Model comparisons to observations for no-feedback and feedback implementations of the same model showed that differences in performance between models were larger than the performance changes associated with implementing feedbacks within a given model. However, feedback implementation was shown to result in improved forecasts of meteorological parameters such as the 2 m surface temperature and precipitation. These findings suggest that meteorological forecasts may be improved through the use of fully coupled feedback models, or through incorporation of improved climatologies of aerosol properties, the latter designed to include spatial, temporal and aerosol size and/or speciation variations.

Using Stable Isotopes in Water Vapor to Diagnose Relationships Between Lower-Tropospheric Stability, Mixing, and Low-Cloud Cover Near the Island of Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galewsky, Joseph

2018-01-01

In situ measurements of water vapor isotopic composition from Mauna Loa, Hawaii, are merged with soundings from Hilo to show an inverse relationship between the estimated inversion strength (EIS) and isotopically derived measures of lower-tropospheric mixing. Remote sensing estimates of cloud fraction, cloud liquid water path, and cloud top pressure were all found to be higher (lower) under low (high) EIS. Inverse modeling of the isotopic data corresponding to terciles of EIS conditions provide quantitative constraints on the last-saturation temperatures and mixing fractions that govern the humidity above the trade inversion. The mixing fraction of water vapor transported from the boundary layer to Mauna Loa decreases with respect to EIS at a rate of about 3% K-1, corresponding to a mixing ratio decrease of 0.6 g kg-1 K-1. A last-saturation temperature of 240 K can match all observations. This approach can be applied in other settings and may be used to test models of low-cloud climate feedbacks.

Cloud-Scale Numerical Modeling of the Arctic Boundary Layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krueger, Steven K.

1998-01-01

The interactions between sea ice, open ocean, atmospheric radiation, and clouds over the Arctic Ocean exert a strong influence on global climate. Uncertainties in the formulation of interactive air-sea-ice processes in global climate models (GCMs) result in large differences between the Arctic, and global, climates simulated by different models. Arctic stratus clouds are not well-simulated by GCMs, yet exert a strong influence on the surface energy budget of the Arctic. Leads (channels of open water in sea ice) have significant impacts on the large-scale budgets during the Arctic winter, when they contribute about 50 percent of the surface fluxes over the Arctic Ocean, but cover only 1 to 2 percent of its area. Convective plumes generated by wide leads may penetrate the surface inversion and produce condensate that spreads up to 250 km downwind of the lead, and may significantly affect the longwave radiative fluxes at the surface and thereby the sea ice thickness. The effects of leads and boundary layer clouds must be accurately represented in climate models to allow possible feedbacks between them and the sea ice thickness. The FIRE III Arctic boundary layer clouds field program, in conjunction with the SHEBA ice camp and the ARM North Slope of Alaska and Adjacent Arctic Ocean site, will offer an unprecedented opportunity to greatly improve our ability to parameterize the important effects of leads and boundary layer clouds in GCMs.

CALIOP-based Biomass Burning Smoke Plume Injection Height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, A. J.; Choi, H. D.; Fairlie, T. D.; Pouliot, G.; Baker, K. R.; Winker, D. M.; Trepte, C. R.; Szykman, J.

2017-12-01

Carbon and aerosols are cycled between terrestrial and atmosphere environments during fire events, and these emissions have strong feedbacks to near-field weather, air quality, and longer-term climate systems. Fire severity and burned area are under the control of weather and climate, and fire emissions have the potential to alter numerous land and atmospheric processes that, in turn, feedback to and interact with climate systems (e.g., changes in patterns of precipitation, black/brown carbon deposition on ice/snow, alteration in landscape and atmospheric/cloud albedo). If plume injection height is incorrectly estimated, then the transport and deposition of those emissions will also be incorrect. The heights to which smoke is injected governs short- or long-range transport, which influences surface pollution, cloud interaction (altered albedo), and modifies patterns of precipitation (cloud condensation nuclei). We are working with the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) science team and other stakeholder agencies, primarily the Environmental Protection Agency and regional partners, to generate a biomass burning (BB) plume injection height database using multiple platforms, sensors and models (CALIOP, MODIS, NOAA HMS, Langley Trajectory Model). These data have the capacity to provide enhanced smoke plume injection height parameterization in regional, national and international scientific and air quality models. Statistics that link fire behavior and weather to plume rise are crucial for verifying and enhancing plume rise parameterization in local-, regional- and global-scale models used for air quality, chemical transport and climate. Specifically, we will present: (1) a methodology that links BB injection height and CALIOP air parcels to specific fires; (2) the daily evolution of smoke plumes for specific fires; (3) plumes transport and deposited on the Greenland Ice Sheet; and (4) compare CALIOP-derived smoke plume injection to CMAQ modeled smoke plume injection. These results have the potential to provide value to national and international modeling communities (scientific and air quality) and to public land, fire, and air quality management and regulations communities.

Stellar feedback in galaxies and the origin of galaxy-scale winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, Philip F.; Quataert, Eliot; Murray, Norman

2012-04-01

Feedback from massive stars is believed to play a critical role in driving galactic super-winds that enrich the intergalactic medium and shape the galaxy mass function, mass-metallicity relation and other global galaxy properties. In previous papers, we have introduced new numerical methods for implementing stellar feedback on sub-giant molecular cloud (sub-GMC) through galactic scales in numerical simulations of galaxies; the key physical processes include radiation pressure in the ultraviolet through infrared, supernovae (Type I and Type II), stellar winds ('fast' O star through 'slow' asymptotic giant branch winds), and H II photoionization. Here, we show that these feedback mechanisms drive galactic winds with outflow rates as high as ˜10-20 times the galaxy star formation rate. The mass-loading efficiency (wind mass-loss rate divided by the star formation rate) scales roughly as ? (where Vc is the galaxy circular velocity), consistent with simple momentum-conservation expectations. We use our suite of simulations to study the relative contribution of each feedback mechanism to the generation of galactic winds in a range of galaxy models, from Small Magellanic Cloud like dwarfs and Milky Way (MW) analogues to z˜ 2 clumpy discs. In massive, gas-rich systems (local starbursts and high-z galaxies), radiation pressure dominates the wind generation. By contrast, for MW-like spirals and dwarf galaxies the gas densities are much lower and sources of shock-heated gas such as supernovae and stellar winds dominate the production of large-scale outflows. In all of our models, however, the winds have a complex multiphase structure that depends on the interaction between multiple feedback mechanisms operating on different spatial scales and time-scales: any single feedback mechanism fails to reproduce the winds observed. We use our simulations to provide fitting functions to the wind mass loading and velocities as a function of galaxy properties, for use in cosmological simulations and semi-analytic models. These differ from typically adopted formulae with an explicit dependence on the gas surface density that can be very important in both low-density dwarf galaxies and high-density gas-rich galaxies.

ARM Cloud Radar Simulator Package for Global Climate Models Value-Added Product

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yuying; Xie, Shaocheng

It has been challenging to directly compare U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility ground-based cloud radar measurements with climate model output because of limitations or features of the observing processes and the spatial gap between model and the single-point measurements. To facilitate the use of ARM radar data in numerical models, an ARM cloud radar simulator was developed to converts model data into pseudo-ARM cloud radar observations that mimic the instrument view of a narrow atmospheric column (as compared to a large global climate model [GCM] grid-cell), thus allowing meaningful comparison between model outputmore » and ARM cloud observations. The ARM cloud radar simulator value-added product (VAP) was developed based on the CloudSat simulator contained in the community satellite simulator package, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) (Bodas-Salcedo et al., 2011), which has been widely used in climate model evaluation with satellite data (Klein et al., 2013, Zhang et al., 2010). The essential part of the CloudSat simulator is the QuickBeam radar simulator that is used to produce CloudSat-like radar reflectivity, but is capable of simulating reflectivity for other radars (Marchand et al., 2009; Haynes et al., 2007). Adapting QuickBeam to the ARM cloud radar simulator within COSP required two primary changes: one was to set the frequency to 35 GHz for the ARM Ka-band cloud radar, as opposed to 94 GHz used for the CloudSat W-band radar, and the second was to invert the view from the ground to space so as to attenuate the beam correctly. In addition, the ARM cloud radar simulator uses a finer vertical resolution (100 m compared to 500 m for CloudSat) to resolve the more detailed structure of clouds captured by the ARM radars. The ARM simulator has been developed following the COSP workflow (Figure 1) and using the capabilities available in COSP wherever possible. The ARM simulator is written in Fortran 90, just as is the COSP. It is incorporated into COSP to facilitate use by the climate modeling community. In order to evaluate simulator output, the observational counterpart of the simulator output, radar reflectivity-height histograms (CFAD) is also generated from the ARM observations. This report includes an overview of the ARM cloud radar simulator VAP and the required simulator-oriented ARM radar data product (radarCFAD) for validating simulator output, as well as a user guide for operating the ARM radar simulator VAP.« less

TOWARDS ICE FORMATION CLOSURE IN MIXED-PHASE BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS DURING ISDAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avramov, A.; Ackerman, A. S.; Fridlind, A. M.; van Diedenhoven, B.; Korolev, A. V.

2009-12-01

Mixed-phase stratus clouds are ubiquitous in the Arctic during the winter and transition seasons. Despite their important role in various climate feedback mechanisms they are not well understood and are difficult to represent faithfully in cloud models. In particular, models of all types experience difficulties reproducing observed ice concentrations and liquid/ice water partitioning in these clouds. Previous studies have demonstrated that simulated ice concentrations and ice water content are critically dependent on ice nucleation modes and ice crystal habit assumed in simulations. In this study we use large-eddy simulations with size-resolved microphysics to determine whether uncertainties in ice nucleus concentrations, ice nucleation mechanisms, ice crystal habits and large-scale forcing are sufficient to account for the difference between simulated and observed quantities. We present results of simulations of two case studies based on observations taken during the recent Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) on April 8 and 26, 2008. The model simulations are evaluated through extensive comparison with in-situ observations and ground-based remote sensing measurements.

Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, D. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Hunter, S. J.; Bragg, F. J.; Contoux, C.; Stepanek, C.; Sohl, L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Chan, W.-L.;

Seasonal Synchronization of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Niño Diversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thual, S.; Majda, A.; Chen, N.

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant impact on global climate and seasonal prediction. Recently, a simple ENSO model was developed that automatically captures the ENSO diversity and intermittency in nature, where state-dependent stochastic wind bursts and nonlinear advection of sea surface temperature (SST) are coupled to simple ocean-atmosphere processes that are otherwise deterministic, linear and stable. In the present article, it is further shown that the model can reproduce qualitatively the ENSO synchronization (or phase-locking) to the seasonal cycle in nature. This goal is achieved by incorporating a cloud radiative feedback that is derived naturally from the model's atmosphere dynamics with no ad-hoc assumptions and accounts in simple fashion for the marked seasonal variations of convective activity and cloud cover in the eastern Pacific. In particular, the weak convective response to SSTs in boreal fall favors the eastern Pacific warming that triggers El Niño events while the increased convective activity and cloud cover during the following spring contributes to the shutdown of those events by blocking incoming shortwave solar radiations. In addition to simulating the ENSO diversity with realistic non-Gaussian statistics in different Niño regions, both the eastern Pacific moderate and super El Niño, the central Pacific El Niño as well as La Niña show a realistic chronology with a tendency to peak in boreal winter as well as decreased predictability in spring consistent with the persistence barrier in nature. The incorporation of other possible seasonal feedbacks in the model is also documented for completeness.

CGILS Phase 2 LES intercomparison of response of subtropical marine low cloud regimes to CO 2 quadrupling and a CMIP3 composite forcing change: Large eddy simulation of cloud feedbacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blossey, Peter N.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Cheng, Anning

We extended Phase 1 of the CGILS large-eddy simulation (LES) intercomparison in order to understand if subtropical marine boundary-layer clouds respond to idealized climate perturbations consistently in six LES models. Here the responses to quadrupled carbon dioxide (“fast adjustment”) and to a composite climate perturbation representative of CMIP3 multimodel mean 2×CO 2 near-equilibrium conditions are analyzed. As in Phase 1, the LES is run to equilibrium using specified steady summertime forcings representative of three locations in the Northeast Pacific Ocean in shallow well-mixed stratocumulus, decoupled stratocumulus, and shallow cumulus cloud regimes. Our results are generally consistent with a single-LES studymore » of Bretherton et al. (2013) on which this intercomparison was based. Both quadrupled CO 2 and the composite climate perturbation result in less cloud and a shallower boundary layer for all models in well-mixed stratocumulus and for all but a single LES in decoupled stratocumulus and shallow cumulus, corroborating similar findings from global climate models (GCMs). For both perturbations, the amount of cloud reduction varies across the models, but there is less intermodel scatter than in GCMs. Furthermore, the cloud radiative effect changes are much larger in the stratocumulus-capped regimes than in the shallow cumulus regime, for which precipitation buffering may damp the cloud response. In the decoupled stratocumulus and cumulus regimes, both the CO 2 increase and CMIP3 perturbations reduce boundary-layer decoupling, due to the shallowing of inversion height.« less

CGILS Phase 2 LES intercomparison of response of subtropical marine low cloud regimes to CO 2 quadrupling and a CMIP3 composite forcing change: Large eddy simulation of cloud feedbacks

DOE PAGES

Blossey, Peter N.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Cheng, Anning; ...

2016-10-27

We extended Phase 1 of the CGILS large-eddy simulation (LES) intercomparison in order to understand if subtropical marine boundary-layer clouds respond to idealized climate perturbations consistently in six LES models. Here the responses to quadrupled carbon dioxide (“fast adjustment”) and to a composite climate perturbation representative of CMIP3 multimodel mean 2×CO 2 near-equilibrium conditions are analyzed. As in Phase 1, the LES is run to equilibrium using specified steady summertime forcings representative of three locations in the Northeast Pacific Ocean in shallow well-mixed stratocumulus, decoupled stratocumulus, and shallow cumulus cloud regimes. Our results are generally consistent with a single-LES studymore » of Bretherton et al. (2013) on which this intercomparison was based. Both quadrupled CO 2 and the composite climate perturbation result in less cloud and a shallower boundary layer for all models in well-mixed stratocumulus and for all but a single LES in decoupled stratocumulus and shallow cumulus, corroborating similar findings from global climate models (GCMs). For both perturbations, the amount of cloud reduction varies across the models, but there is less intermodel scatter than in GCMs. Furthermore, the cloud radiative effect changes are much larger in the stratocumulus-capped regimes than in the shallow cumulus regime, for which precipitation buffering may damp the cloud response. In the decoupled stratocumulus and cumulus regimes, both the CO 2 increase and CMIP3 perturbations reduce boundary-layer decoupling, due to the shallowing of inversion height.« less

The Strength of Cloud Feedbacks and the Structure of Tropical Climate Change - A CESM Sensitivity Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erfani, E.; Burls, N.

2017-12-01

The nature of local coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions within the tropics is determined by background conditions such as the depth of the equatorial thermocline, the water vapor content of the tropical atmosphere, and the radiative forcing of tropical clouds. These factors are set not only by the coupled tropical variability itself but also by extra-tropical conditions. For example, the strength of the cold tongue is ultimately controlled by the temperature of waters subducted in the extra-tropics and transported to the equator by the ocean subtropical cells (STCs). Similarly, inter-hemispheric asymmetries in extra-tropical atmospheric heating are communicated to the tropics affecting cross-equatorial heat transport and ITCZ position. Acknowledging from a fully coupled perspective the influence of both tropical and extra-tropical conditions, we are performing a suite of CESM experiments across which we systematically alter the strength of convective and stratus cloud feedbacks. By systematically exploring the sensitivity of the tropical coupled system to imposed changes in the strength of tropical and extra-tropical cloud feedbacks to CO2-induced warming this work aims to formalize our understanding of cloud controls on tropical climate.

Radiation Hydrodynamics with GIZMO: The Disruption of Giant Molecular Clouds by Stellar Radiation Pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatami, David; Hopkins, Philip F.

2016-01-01

We present a numerical implementation of radiation hydrodynamics for the meshless code GIZMO. The radiation transport is treated as an anisotropic diffusion process combined with radiation pressure effects, photoionization with heating and cooling routines, and a multifrequency treatment of an arbitrary number of sources. As a first application of the method, we investigate the disruption of giant molecular clouds by stellar radiative feedback. Specifically, what fraction of the gas must a GMC convert into stars to cause self-disruption? We test a range of cloud masses and sizes with several source luminosities to probe the effects of photoheating and radiation pressure on timescales shorter than the onset of the first supernovae. Observationally, only ~1-10% of gas is converted into stars, an inefficiency that is likely the result of feedback from newly formed stars. Whether photoheating or radiation pressure dominates is dependent on the given cloud properties. For denser clouds, we expect photoheating to play a negligible role with most of the feedback driven by radiation pressure. This work explores the necessary parameters a GMC must have in order for radiation pressure to be the main disruption process.

Physical properties and scaling relations of molecular clouds: the effect of stellar feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grisdale, Kearn; Agertz, Oscar; Renaud, Florent; Romeo, Alessandro B.

2018-06-01

Using hydrodynamical simulations of entire galactic discs similar to the Milky Way, reaching 4.6{ pc} resolution, we study the origins of observed physical properties of giant molecular clouds (GMCs). We find that efficient stellar feedback is a necessary ingredient in order to develop a realistic interstellar medium (ISM), leading to molecular cloud masses, sizes, velocity dispersions and virial parameters in excellent agreement with Milky Way observations. GMC scaling relations observed in the Milky Way, such as the mass-size (M-R), velocity dispersion-size (σ-R), and the σ-RΣ relations, are reproduced in a feedback driven ISM when observed in projection, with M∝R2.3 and σ∝R0.56. When analysed in 3D, GMC scaling relations steepen significantly, indicating potential limitations of our understanding of molecular cloud 3D structure from observations. Furthermore, we demonstrate how a GMC population's underlying distribution of virial parameters can strongly influence the scatter in derived scaling relations. Finally, we show that GMCs with nearly identical global properties exist in different evolutionary stages, where a majority of clouds being either gravitationally bound or expanding, but with a significant fraction being compressed by external ISM pressure, at all times.

The effect of photoionizing feedback on star formation in isolated and colliding clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shima, Kazuhiro; Tasker, Elizabeth J.; Federrath, Christoph; Habe, Asao

2018-05-01

We investigate star formation occurring in idealized giant molecular clouds, comparing structures that evolve in isolation versus those undergoing a collision. Two different collision speeds are investigated and the impact of photoionizing radiation from the stars is determined. We find that a colliding system leads to more massive star formation both with and without the addition of feedback, raising overall star formation efficiencies (SFE) by a factor of 10 and steepening the high-mass end of the stellar mass function. This rise in SFE is due to increased turbulent compression during the cloud collision. While feedback can both promote and hinder star formation in an isolated system, it increases the SFE by approximately 1.5 times in the colliding case when the thermal speed of the resulting H II regions matches the shock propagation speed in the collision.

The necessity of feedback physics in setting the peak of the initial mass function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guszejnov, Dávid; Krumholz, Mark R.; Hopkins, Philip F.

2016-05-01

A popular theory of star formation is gravito-turbulent fragmentation, in which self-gravitating structures are created by turbulence-driven density fluctuations. Simple theories of isothermal fragmentation successfully reproduce the core mass function (CMF) which has a very similar shape to the initial mass function (IMF) of stars. However, numerical simulations of isothermal turbulent fragmentation thus far have not succeeded in identifying a fragment mass scale that is independent of the simulation resolution. Moreover, the fluid equations for magnetized, self-gravitating, isothermal turbulence are scale-free, and do not predict any characteristic mass. In this paper we show that, although an isothermal self-gravitating flow does produce a CMF with a mass scale imposed by the initial conditions, this scale changes as the parent cloud evolves. In addition, the cores that form undergo further fragmentation and after sufficient time forget about their initial conditions, yielding a scale-free pure power-law distribution dN/dM ∝ M-2 for the stellar IMF. We show that this problem can be alleviated by introducing additional physics that provides a termination scale for the cascade. Our candidate for such physics is a simple model for stellar radiation feedback. Radiative heating, powered by accretion on to forming stars, arrests the fragmentation cascade and imposes a characteristic mass scale that is nearly independent of the time-evolution or initial conditions in the star-forming cloud, and that agrees well with the peak of the observed IMF. In contrast, models that introduce a stiff equation of state for denser clouds but that do not explicitly include the effects of feedback do not yield an invariant IMF.

Lidar Studies of Extinction in Clouds in the ECLIPS Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, C.; Platt, R.; Young, Stuart A.; Patterson, Graeme P.

1992-01-01

The Experimental Cloud Lidar Pilot Study (ECLIPS) project has now had two active phases in 1989 and 1991. A number of laboratories around the world have taken part in the study. The observations have yielded new data on cloud height and structure, and have yielded some useful new information on the retrieval of cloud optical properties, together with the uncertainties involved. Clouds have a major impact on the climate of the earth. They have the effect of reducing the mean surface temperature from 30 C for a cloudless planet to a value of about 15 C for present cloud conditions. However, it is not at all certain how clouds would react to a change in the planetary temperature in the event of climate change due to a radiative forcing from greenhouse gases. Clouds both reflect out sunlight (negative feedback) and enhance the greenhouse effect (positive feedback), but the ultimate sign of cloud feedback is unknown. Because of these uncertainties, campaigns to study clouds intensely were initiated. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology (ISCPP) and the FIRE Campaigns (cirrus and stratocumulus) are examples. The ECLIPS was set up similarly to the above experiments to obtain information specifically on cloud base, but also cloud top (where possible), optical properties, and cloud structure. ECLIPS was designed to allow as many laboratories as possible globally to take part to get the largest range of clouds. It involves observations with elastic backscatter lidar, supported by infrared fluxes at the ground and radiosonde data, as basic instrumentation. More complex experiments using beam filter radiometers, solar pyranometers, and satellite data and often associated with other campaigns were also encouraged to join ECLIPS. Two periods for observation were chosen, Sep. - Dec. 1989 and Apr. - Jul. 1992 into which investigators were requested to fit 30 days of observations. These would be either continuous, or arranged to coincide with NOAA satellite overpasses to obtain AVHRR data. The distribution of the ECLIPS international effort as in 1991 is shown. The main gaps in the global distribution are in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere.

Effects of Cloud-Microphysics on Tropical Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes in the GEOS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.

2004-01-01

The sensitivity of tropical atmospheric hydrologic processes to cloud-microphysics is investigated using the NASA GEOS GCM. Results show that a faster autoconversion - rate produces more warm rain and less clouds at all levels. Fewer clouds enhances longwave cooling and reduces shortwave heating in the upper troposphere, while more warm rain produces increased condensation heating in the lower troposphere. This vertical heating differential destablizes the tropical atmosphere, producing a positive feedback resulting in more rain over the tropics. The feedback is maintained via a two-cell secondary circulation. The lower cell is capped by horizontal divergence and maximum cloud detrainment near the melting/freezing, with rising motion in the warm rain region connected to descending motion in the cold rain region. The upper cell is found above the freezing/melting level, with longwave-induced subsidence in the warm rain and dry regions, coupled to forced ascent in the deep convection region. The tropical large scale circulation is found to be very sensitive to the radiative-dynamic effects induced by changes in autoconversion rate. Reduced cloud-radiation processes feedback due to a faster autoconversion rate results in intermittent but more energetic eastward propagating Madden and Julian Oscillations (MJO). Conversely,-a slower autconversion rate, with increased cloud radiation produces MJO's with more realistic westward propagating transients, resembling a supercloud cluster structure. Results suggests that warm rain and associated low and mid level clouds, i.e., cumulus congestus, may play a critical role in regulating the time-intervals of deep convections and hence the fundamental time scales of the MJO.

Describing the direct and indirect radiative effects of atmospheric aerosols over Europe by using coupled meteorology-chemistry simulations: a contribution from the AQMEII-Phase II exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Balzarini, Alessandra; Baró, Rocío; Curci, Gabriele; Forkel, Renate; Hirtl, Marcus; Honzak, Luka; Langer, Matthias; Pérez, Juan L.; Pirovano, Guido; San José, Roberto; Tuccella, Paolo; Werhahn, Johannes; Zabkar, Rahela

2014-05-01

The study of the response of the aerosol levels in the atmosphere to a changing climate and how this affects the radiative budget of the Earth (direct, semi-direct and indirect effects) is an essential topic to build confidence on climate science, since these feedbacks involve the largest uncertainties nowadays. Air quality-climate interactions (AQCI) are, therefore, a key, but uncertain contributor to the anthropogenic forcing that remains poorly understood. To build confidence in the AQCI studies, regional-scale integrated meteorology-atmospheric chemistry models (i.e., models with on-line chemistry) that include detailed treatment of aerosol life cycle and aerosol impacts on radiation (direct effects) and clouds (indirect effects) are in demand. In this context, the main objective of this contribution is the study and definition of the uncertainties in the climate-chemistry-aerosol-cloud-radiation system associated to the direct radiative forcing and the indirect effect caused by aerosols over Europe, using an ensemble of fully-coupled meteorology-chemistry model simulations with the WRF-Chem model run under the umbrella of AQMEII-Phase 2 international initiative. Simulations were performed for Europe for the entire year 2010. According to the common simulation strategy, the year was simulated as a sequence of 2-day time slices. For better comparability, the seven groups applied the same grid spacing of 23 km and shared common processing of initial and boundary conditions as well as anthropogenic and fire emissions. With exception of a simulation with different cloud microphysics, identical physics options were chosen while the chemistry options were varied. Two model set-ups will be considered here: one sub-ensemble of simulations not taking into account any aerosol feedbacks (the baseline case) and another sub-ensemble of simulations which differs from the former by the inclusion of aerosol-radiation feedback. The existing differences for meteorological variables (mainly 2-m temperature and precipitation) and air quality levels (mainly ozone an PM10) between both sub-ensembles of WRF-Chem simulations have been characterized. In the case of ozone and PM10, an increase in solar radiation and temperature has generally resulted in an enhanced photochemical activity and therefore a negative feedback (areas with low aerosol concentrations present more than 50 W m-2 higher global radiation for cloudy conditions). However, simulated feedback effects between aerosol concentrations and meteorological variables and on pollutant distributions strongly depend on the model configuration and the meteorological situation. These results will help providing improved science-based foundations to better assess the impacts of climate variability, support the development of effective climate change policies and optimize private decision-making.

Partitioning CloudSat Ice Water Content for Comparison with Upper-Tropospheric Ice in Global Atmospheric Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, W. A.; Woods, C. P.; Li, J. F.; Waliser, D. E.; Chern, J.; Tao, W.; Jiang, J. H.; Tompkins, A. M.

2010-12-01

CloudSat provides important estimates of vertically resolved ice water content (IWC) on a global scale based on radar reflectivity. These estimates of IWC have proven beneficial in evaluating the representations of ice clouds in global models. An issue when performing model-data comparisons of IWC particularly germane to this investigation, is the question of which component(s) of the frozen water mass are represented by retrieval estimates and how they relate to what is represented in models. The present study developed and applied a new technique to partition CloudSat total IWC into small and large ice hydrometeors, based on the CloudSat-retrieved ice particle size distribution (PSD) parameters. The new method allows one to make relevant model-data comparisons and provides new insights into the model’s representation of atmospheric IWC. The partitioned CloudSat IWC suggests that the small ice particles contribute to 20-30% of the total IWC in the upper troposphere when a threshold size of 100 μm is used. Sensitivity measures with respect to the threshold size, the PSD parameters, and the retrieval algorithms are presented. The new dataset is compared to model estimates, pointing to areas for model improvement. Cloud ice analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model agree well with the small IWC from CloudSat. The finite-volume multi-scale modeling framework model underestimates total IWC at 147 and 215 hPa, while overestimating the fractional contribution from the small ice species. These results are discussed in terms of their applications to, and implications for, the evaluation of global atmospheric models, providing constraints on the representations of cloud feedback and precipitation in global models, which in turn can help reduce uncertainties associated with climate change projections. Figure 1. A sample lognormal ice number distribution (red curve), and the corresponding mass distribution (black curve). The dotted line represents the cutoff size for IWC partitioning (Dc = 100 µm as an example). The partial integrals of the mass distribution for particles smaller and larger than Dc correspond to IWC<100 (green area) and IWC>100 (blue area), respectively.

A large ozone-circulation feedback and its implications for global warming assessments.

PubMed

Nowack, Peer J; Abraham, N Luke; Maycock, Amanda C; Braesicke, Peter; Gregory, Jonathan M; Joshi, Manoj M; Osprey, Annette; Pyle, John A

2015-01-01

State-of-the-art climate models now include more climate processes which are simulated at higher spatial resolution than ever 1 . Nevertheless, some processes, such as atmospheric chemical feedbacks, are still computationally expensive and are often ignored in climate simulations 1,2 . Here we present evidence that how stratospheric ozone is represented in climate models can have a first order impact on estimates of effective climate sensitivity. Using a comprehensive atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model, we find an increase in global mean surface warming of around 1°C (~20%) after 75 years when ozone is prescribed at pre-industrial levels compared with when it is allowed to evolve self-consistently in response to an abrupt 4×CO 2 forcing. The difference is primarily attributed to changes in longwave radiative feedbacks associated with circulation-driven decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone and related stratospheric water vapour and cirrus cloud changes. This has important implications for global model intercomparison studies 1,2 in which participating models often use simplified treatments of atmospheric composition changes that are neither consistent with the specified greenhouse gas forcing scenario nor with the associated atmospheric circulation feedbacks 3-5 .

Renewable Energy Capability vs. Climate Necessity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, David

2006-01-01

A 450-ppm equivalent CO[2] target by 2050 is an often-proposed goal under a future global emissions agreement, but there is considerable high side risk in global-warming models due to cloud formation, feedbacks in dissolved organic carbon from peat bogs in polar regions, and unaccounted solar dimming by particulates. The 450-ppm figure is…

Investigation of biogeophysical feedback on the African climate using a two-dimensional model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xue, Yongkang; Liou, Kuo-Nan; Kasahara, Akira

1990-01-01

A numerical scheme is specifically designed to develop a time-dependent climate model to ensure the conservation of mass, momentum, energy, and water vapor, in order to study the biogeophysical feedback for the climate of Africa. A vegetation layer is incorporated in the present two-dimensional climate model. Using the coupled climate-vegetation model, two tests were performed involving the removal and expansion of the Sahara Desert. Results show that variations in the surface conditions produce a significant feedback to the climate system. It is noted that the simulation responses to the temperature and zonal wind in the case of an expanded desert agree with the climatological data for African dry years. Perturbed simulations have also been performed by changing the albedo only, without allowing the variation in the vegetation layer. It is shown that the variation in latent heat release is significant and is related to changes in the vegetation cover. As a result, precipitation and cloud cover are reduced.

Improving the Understanding and Model Representation of Processes that Couple Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fast, J. D.; Berg, L. K.; Schmid, B.; Alexander, M. L. L.; Bell, D.; D'Ambro, E.; Hubbe, J. M.; Liu, J.; Mei, F.; Pekour, M. S.; Pinterich, T.; Schobesberger, S.; Shilling, J.; Springston, S. R.; Thornton, J. A.; Tomlinson, J. M.; Wang, J.; Zelenyuk, A.

2016-12-01

Cumulus convection is an important component in the atmospheric radiation budget and hydrologic cycle over the southern Great Plains and over many regions of the world, particularly during the summertime growing season when intense turbulence induced by surface radiation couples the land surface to clouds. Current convective cloud parameterizations, however, contain uncertainties resulting from insufficient coincident data that couples cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties to inhomogeneity in surface layer, boundary layer, and aerosol properties. We describe the measurement strategy and preliminary findings from the recent Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) campaign conducted in May and September of 2016 in the vicinity of the DOE's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site located in Oklahoma. The goal of the HI-SCALE campaign is to provide a detailed set of aircraft and surface measurements needed to obtain a more complete understanding and improved parameterizations of the lifecycle of shallow clouds. The sampling is done in two periods, one in the spring and the other in the late summer to take advantage of variations in the "greenness" for various types of vegetation, new particle formation, anthropogenic enhancement of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA), and other aerosol properties. The aircraft measurements will be coupled with extensive routine ARM SGP measurements as well as Large Eddy Simulation (LES), cloud resolving, and cloud-system resolving models. Through these integrated analyses and modeling studies, the affects of inhomogeneity in land use, vegetation, soil moisture, convective eddies, and aerosol properties on the evolution of shallow clouds will be determined, including the feedbacks of cloud radiative effects.

Missing iris effect as a possible cause of muted hydrological change and high climate sensitivity in models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, Thorsten; Stevens, Bjorn

2015-05-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 falls between 2.0 and 4.6 K in current climate models, and they suggest a weak increase in global mean precipitation. Inferences from the observational record, however, place climate sensitivity near the lower end of this range and indicate that models underestimate some of the changes in the hydrological cycle. These discrepancies raise the possibility that important feedbacks are missing from the models. A controversial hypothesis suggests that the dry and clear regions of the tropical atmosphere expand in a warming climate and thereby allow more infrared radiation to escape to space. This so-called iris effect could constitute a negative feedback that is not included in climate models. We find that inclusion of such an effect in a climate model moves the simulated responses of both temperature and the hydrological cycle to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations closer to observations. Alternative suggestions for shortcomings of models -- such as aerosol cooling, volcanic eruptions or insufficient ocean heat uptake -- may explain a slow observed transient warming relative to models, but not the observed enhancement of the hydrological cycle. We propose that, if precipitating convective clouds are more likely to cluster into larger clouds as temperatures rise, this process could constitute a plausible physical mechanism for an iris effect.

A Unified Approach to Quantifying Feedbacks in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, K. E.

2008-12-01

In order to speed progress in reducing uncertainty in climate projections, the processes that most strongly influence those projections must be identified. It is of some importance, therefore, to assess the relative strengths of various climate feedbacks and to determine the degree to which various earth system models (ESMs) agree in their simulations of these processes. Climate feedbacks have been traditionally quantified in terms of their impact on the radiative balance of the planet, whereas carbon cycle responses have been assessed in terms of the size of the perturbations to the surface fluxes of carbon dioxide. In this study we introduce a diagnostic strategy for unifying the two approaches, which allows us to directly compare the strength of carbon-climate feedbacks with other conventional climate feedbacks associated with atmospheric and surface changes. Applying this strategy to a highly simplified model of the carbon-climate system demonstrates the viability of the approach. In the simple model we find that even if the strength of the carbon-climate feedbacks is very large, the uncertainty associated with the overall response of the climate system is likely to be dominated by uncertainties in the much larger feedbacks associated with clouds. This does not imply that the carbon cycle itself is unimportant, only that changes in the carbon cycle that are associated with climate change have a relatively small impact on global temperatures. This new, unified diagnostic approach is suitable for assessing feedbacks in even the most sophisticated earth system models. It will be interesting to see whether our preliminary conclusions are confirmed when output from the more realistic models is analyzed. This work was carried out at the University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract W-7405-Eng-48.

Security and Interdependency in a Public Cloud: A Game Theoretic Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-29

maximum utility can be reached (i.e., Pareto efficiency). However, the examples of perverse incentives and information inequality (where this feedback...interdependent structure. Cloud computing gives way to two types of interdependent relationships: cloud host-to- client and cloud client -to- client ... Client -to- client interdependency is much less studied than to the above-mentioned cloud host-to- client relationship. Although, it can still carry the

What Can Earth Paleoclimates Reveal About the Resiliency of Habitable States? An Example from the Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sohl, L.

2014-04-01

The Neoproterozoic "Snowball Earth" glaciations ( 750-635 Ma) have been a special focus for outer habitable zone investigations, owing in large part to a captivating and controversial hypothesis suggesting that Earth may have only narrowly escaped a runaway icehouse state on multiple occasions (a.k.a. "the hard snowball"; Hoffman and Schrag 2001). A review of climate simulations exploring snowball inception (Godderis et al. 2011) reveals that a broad range of models (EBMs, EMICs and AGCMs) tend to yield hard snowball solutions, whereas models with greater 3-D dynamic response capabilities (AOGCMs) typically do not, unless some of their climate feedback responses (e.g., wind-driven ocean circulation, cloud forcings) are disabled (Poulsen and Jacobs 2004). This finding raises the likelihood that models incorporating dynamic climate feedbacks are essential to understanding how much flexibility there may be in the definition of a planet's habitable zone boundaries for a given point in its history. In the first of a series of new Snowball Earth simulations, we use the NASA/GISS ModelE2 Global Climate Model - a 3-D coupled atmosphere/ocean model with dynamic sea ice response - to explore the impacts of wind-driven ocean circulation, clouds and deep ocean circulation on the sea ice front when solar luminosity and atmospheric carbon dioxide are reduced to Neoproterozoic levels (solar = 94%, CO2 = 40 ppmv). The simulation includes a realistic Neoproterozoic land mass distribution, which is concentrated at mid- to tropical latitudes. After 300 years, the sea ice front is established near 30 degrees latitude, and after 600 years it remains stable. As with earlier coupled model simulations we conclude that runaway glacial states would have been difficult to achieve during the Neoproterozoic, and would be more likely to have occurred during earlier times in Earth history when solar luminosity was less. Inclusion of dynamic climate feedback capabilities in habitable zone modeling studies is likely to result in an expansion of our view of what a "Goldilocks" state can entail. Future simulations with a modified version of the NASA/GISS GCM, ROCKE-3D, will take advantage of newly-added model capabilities that evaluate the influence of rotation rate, solar spectral variability, CO2 surface condensation and CO2 clouds on the outer edge of Earth's habitable zone.

The use of marine cloud water samples as a diagnostic tool for aqueous chemistry, cloud microphysical processes and dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosbie, E.; Ziemba, L. D.; Moore, R.; Shook, M.; Jordan, C.; Thornhill, K. L., II; Winstead, E.; Shingler, T.; Brown, M.; MacDonald, A. B.; Dadashazar, H.; Sorooshian, A.; Weiss-Penzias, P. S.; Anderson, B.

2017-12-01

Clouds play several roles in the Earth's climate system. In addition to their clear significance to the hydrological cycle, they strongly modulate the shortwave and longwave radiative balance of the atmosphere, with subsequent feedback on the atmospheric circulation. Furthermore, clouds act as a conduit for the fate and emergence of important trace chemical species and are the predominant removal mechanism for atmospheric aerosols. Marine boundary layer clouds cover large swaths of the global oceans. Because of their global significance, they have attracted significant attention into understanding how changes in aerosols are translated into changes in cloud macro- and microphysical properties. The circular nature of the influence of clouds-on-aerosols and aerosols-on-clouds has been used to explain the chaotic patterns often seen in marine clouds, however, this feedback also presents a substantial hurdle in resolving the uncertain role of anthropogenic aerosols on climate. Here we discuss ways in which the chemical constituents found in cloud water can offer insight into the physical and chemical processes inherent in marine clouds, through the use of aircraft measurements. We focus on observational data from cloud water samples collected during flights conducted over the remote North Atlantic and along coastal California across multiple campaigns. We explore topics related to aqueous processing, wet scavenging and source apportionment.

The Coupled Mars Dust and Water Cycles: Understanding How Clouds Affect the Vertical Distribution and Meridional Transport of Dust and Water.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahre, M. A.

2015-01-01

The dust and water cycles are crucial to the current Martian climate, and they are coupled through cloud formation. Dust strongly impacts the thermal structure of the atmosphere and thus greatly affects atmospheric circulation, while clouds provide radiative forcing and control the hemispheric exchange of water through the modification of the vertical distributions of water and dust. Recent improvements in the quality and sophistication of both observations and climate models allow for a more comprehensive understanding of how the interaction between the dust and water cycles (through cloud formation) affects the dust and water cycles individually. We focus here on the effects of clouds on the vertical distribution of dust and water, and how those vertical distributions control the net meridional transport of water. For this study, we utilize observations of temperature, dust and water ice from the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) combined with the NASA ARC Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM). We demonstrate that the magnitude and nature of the net meridional transport of water between the northern and southern hemispheres during NH summer is sensitive to the vertical structure of the simulated aphelion cloud belt. We further examine how clouds influence the atmospheric thermal structure and thus the vertical structure of the cloud belt. Our goal is to identify and understand the importance of radiative/dynamic feedbacks due to the physical processes involved with cloud formation and evolution on the current climate of Mars.

The Mars Dust and Water Cycles: Investigating the Influence of Clouds on the Vertical Distribution and Meridional Transport of Dust and Water.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Brecht, A. S.; Urata, R.

2015-01-01

The dust and water cycles are critical to the current Martian climate, and they interact with each other through cloud formation. Dust modulates the thermal structure of the atmosphere and thus greatly influences atmospheric circulation. Clouds provide radiative forcing and control the net hemispheric transport of water through the alteration of the vertical distributions of water and dust. Recent advancements in the quality and sophistication of both climate models and observations enable an increased understanding of how the coupling between the dust and water cycles (through cloud formation) impacts the dust and water cycles. We focus here on the effects of clouds on the vertical distributions of dust and water and how those vertical distributions control the net meridional transport of water. We utilize observations of temperature, dust and water ice from the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and the NASA ARC Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM) to show that the magnitude and nature of the hemispheric exchange of water during NH summer is sensitive to the vertical structure of the simulated aphelion cloud belt. Further, we investigate how clouds influence atmospheric temperatures and thus the vertical structure of the cloud belt. Our goal is to isolate and understand the importance of radiative/dynamic feedbacks due to the physical processes involved with cloud formation and evolution on the current climate of Mars.

The Mars Dust and Water Cycles: Investigating the Influence of Clouds on the Vertical Distribution and Meridional Transport of Dust and Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahre, Melinda A.; Haberle, Robert M.; Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Brecht, Amanda S.; Urata, Richard A.

2015-11-01

The dust and water cycles are critical to the current Martian climate, and they interact with each other through cloud formation. Dust modulates the thermal structure of the atmosphere and thus greatly influences atmospheric circulation. Clouds provide radiative forcing and control the net hemispheric transport of water through the alteration of the vertical distributions of water and dust. Recent advancements in the quality and sophistication of both climate models and observations enable an increased understanding of how the coupling between the dust and water cycles (through cloud formation) impacts the dust and water cycles. We focus here on the effects of clouds on the vertical distributions of dust and water and how those vertical distributions control the net meridional transport of water. We utilize observations of temperature, dust and water ice from the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and the NASA ARC Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM) to show that the magnitude and nature of the hemispheric exchange of water during NH summer is sensitive to the vertical structure of the simulated aphelion cloud belt. Further, we investigate how clouds influence atmospheric temperatures and thus the vertical structure of the cloud belt. Our goal is to isolate and understand the importance of radiative/dynamic feedbacks due to the physical processes involved with cloud formation and evolution on the current climate of Mars.

Controls on the Climates of Tidally Locked Terrestrial Planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Cowan, N. B.; Abbot, D. S.

2013-12-01

Earth-size planets in the habitable zone of M-dwarf stars may be very common. Due to strong tidal forces, these planets in circulate orbits are expected to be tidally locked, with one hemisphere experiencing perpetual day and the other permanent night. Previous studies on the climates of tidally locked planets were primarily based on complex 3D general circulation models (GCMs). The central question to be answered in this work is: what is the minimum necessary physics needed to understand the climates simulated by GCMs? A two-column model, primarily based on the weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation (Sobel et al. 2001) and the fixed anvil temperature (FAT) hypothesis (Hartmann and Larson 2002) for the tropical climate of Earth, is developed for understanding the climates of tidally locked planets. This highly idealized model well reproduces fundamental features of the climates obtained in complicated GCMs (Yang et al. 2013), including planetary albedo, longwave cloud forcing, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and atmospheric energy transport. This suggests that the WTG approximation and the FAT hypothesis may be good approximations for tidally locked habitable planets, which provides strong constraints on the large-scale circulations, diabatic processes, and cloud behaviour on these planets. Both the simple model and the GCMs predict that (i) convection and planetary albedo on the dayside increase as stellar flux is increased; (ii) longwave cloud radiative forcing increases as stellar flux is increased, due to the cloud top temperature remains nearly constant as the climate changes (FAT hypothesis); (iii) for planets at the inner regions of the habitable zone, the dayside--nightside OLR contrast becomes very weak or even reverses, due to the strong longwave absorption by water vapor and clouds on the dayside; (iv) the dayside--to--nightside atmospheric energy transport (AET) increases as stellar flux is increased, and decreases as oceanic energy transport (OET) is included, although the compensation between AET and OET is incomplete. To summarize, we are able to construct a realistic low-order model for the climate of tidally locked terrestrial planets, including the cloud behavior, using only the two constraints. This bodes well for the interpretation of complex GCMs and future observations of such planets using, for example, the James Webb Space Telescope. Cited papers: [1]. Sobel, A. H., J. Nilsson and L. M. Polvani: The weak temperature gradient approximation and balanced tropical moisture waves, J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 3650-65, 2001. [2]. Hartmann, D. L. and K. Larson, An important constraint on tropical cloud-climate feedback, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1951-54, 2002. [3]. Yang, J., N. B. Cowan and D. S. Abbot: Stabilizing cloud feedback dramatically expands the habitable zone of tidally locked planets, ApJ. Lett., 771, L45, 2013.

Low clouds suppress Arctic air formation and amplify high-latitude continental winter warming

PubMed Central

Cronin, Timothy W.; Tziperman, Eli

2015-01-01

High-latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. We use an idealized single-column atmospheric model across a range of conditions to study the polar night process of air mass transformation from high-latitude maritime air, with a prescribed initial temperature profile, to much colder high-latitude continental air. We find that a low-cloud feedback—consisting of a robust increase in the duration of optically thick liquid clouds with warming of the initial state—slows radiative cooling of the surface and amplifies continental warming. This low-cloud feedback increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature, effectively suppressing Arctic air formation. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ∼10 d for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 °C. These results, supplemented by an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 climate model runs that shows large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, suggest that the “lapse rate feedback” in simulations of anthropogenic climate change may be related to the influence of low clouds on the stratification of the lower troposphere. The results also indicate that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates. PMID:26324919

Cloud Forecasting and 3-D Radiative Transfer Model Validation using Citizen-Sourced Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasiewski, A. J.; Heymsfield, A.; Newman Frey, K.; Davis, R.; Rapp, J.; Bansemer, A.; Coon, T.; Folsom, R.; Pfeufer, N.; Kalloor, J.

2017-12-01

Cloud radiative feedback mechanisms are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in global climate models. Variations in local 3D cloud structure impact the interpretation of NASA CERES and MODIS data for top-of-atmosphere radiation studies over clouds. Much of this uncertainty results from lack of knowledge of cloud vertical and horizontal structure. Surface-based data on 3-D cloud structure from a multi-sensor array of low-latency ground-based cameras can be used to intercompare radiative transfer models based on MODIS and other satellite data with CERES data to improve the 3-D cloud parameterizations. Closely related, forecasting of solar insolation and associated cloud cover on time scales out to 1 hour and with spatial resolution of 100 meters is valuable for stabilizing power grids with high solar photovoltaic penetrations. Data for cloud-advection based solar insolation forecasting with requisite spatial resolution and latency needed to predict high ramp rate events obtained from a bottom-up perspective is strongly correlated with cloud-induced fluctuations. The development of grid management practices for improved integration of renewable solar energy thus also benefits from a multi-sensor camera array. The data needs for both 3D cloud radiation modelling and solar forecasting are being addressed using a network of low-cost upward-looking visible light CCD sky cameras positioned at 2 km spacing over an area of 30-60 km in size acquiring imagery on 30 second intervals. Such cameras can be manufactured in quantity and deployed by citizen volunteers at a marginal cost of 200-400 and operated unattended using existing communications infrastructure. A trial phase to understand the potential utility of up-looking multi-sensor visible imagery is underway within this NASA Citizen Science project. To develop the initial data sets necessary to optimally design a multi-sensor cloud camera array a team of 100 citizen scientists using self-owned PDA cameras is being organized to collect distributed cloud data sets suitable for MODIS-CERES cloud radiation science and solar forecasting algorithm development. A low-cost and robust sensor design suitable for large scale fabrication and long term deployment has been developed during the project prototyping phase.

Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet.

PubMed

Hofer, Stefan; Tedstone, Andrew J; Fettweis, Xavier; Bamber, Jonathan L

2017-06-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that the abrupt reduction in surface mass balance since about 1995 can be attributed largely to a coincident trend of decreasing summer cloud cover enhancing the melt-albedo feedback. Satellite observations show that, from 1995 to 2009, summer cloud cover decreased by 0.9 ± 0.3% per year. Model output indicates that the GrIS summer melt increases by 27 ± 13 gigatons (Gt) per percent reduction in summer cloud cover, principally because of the impact of increased shortwave radiation over the low albedo ablation zone. The observed reduction in cloud cover is strongly correlated with a state shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation promoting anticyclonic conditions in summer and suggests that the enhanced surface mass loss from the GrIS is driven by synoptic-scale changes in Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation.

The case against climate regulation via oceanic phytoplankton sulphur emissions.

PubMed

Quinn, P K; Bates, T S

2011-11-30

More than twenty years ago, a biological regulation of climate was proposed whereby emissions of dimethyl sulphide from oceanic phytoplankton resulted in the formation of aerosol particles that acted as cloud condensation nuclei in the marine boundary layer. In this hypothesis--referred to as CLAW--the increase in cloud condensation nuclei led to an increase in cloud albedo with the resulting changes in temperature and radiation initiating a climate feedback altering dimethyl sulphide emissions from phytoplankton. Over the past two decades, observations in the marine boundary layer, laboratory studies and modelling efforts have been conducted seeking evidence for the CLAW hypothesis. The results indicate that a dimethyl sulphide biological control over cloud condensation nuclei probably does not exist and that sources of these nuclei to the marine boundary layer and the response of clouds to changes in aerosol are much more complex than was recognized twenty years ago. These results indicate that it is time to retire the CLAW hypothesis.

Interactions between deep convective clouds and aerosols as observed by satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, T.; Li, Z. I.; Remer, L.; Martins, V.

2008-12-01

Major uncertainties regarding interactions between deep convective clouds (DCC) exist due partly to observational difficulty and partly to the entanglement among remotely sensed properties of aerosols and clouds and entanglement between meteorology and possible aerosol signals. In this study we adopt a novel, physically sound relationship between cloud crystal effective radius(CER) and brightness temperature (BT) and utilize ample sampling opportunity provided by MODIS instrument. We reveal aerosol impacts on DCCs by analyzing an ensemble data. Through a conceptual model we demonstrate how aerosol may affect DCC properties. We outline a few scenarios where aerosol signals are best separated and pronounced. Based on our results, anthropogenic pollutions and smokes are shown to effectively decrease CER and to elevate glaciation level of DCCs. On the other hand, dust particles from local sources have the opposite effects, namely, increasing cloud ice particle size and enhancing glaciation by acting possibly as giant CCN or IN. Implications of these effects for aerosols are discussed along with feedbacks of these effects to dynamics.

Using Word Clouds to Develop Proactive Learners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miley, Frances; Read, Andrew

2011-01-01

This article examines student responses to a technique for summarizing electronically available information based on word frequency. Students used this technique to create word clouds, using those word clouds to enhance personal and small group study. This is a qualitative study. Small focus groups were used to obtain student feedback. Feedback…

Life Cycle of Tropical Convection and Anvil in Observations and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFarlane, S. A.; Hagos, S. M.; Comstock, J. M.

2011-12-01

Tropical convective clouds are important elements of the hydrological cycle and produce extensive cirrus anvils that strongly affect the tropical radiative energy balance. To improve simulations of the global water and energy cycles and accurately predict both precipitation and cloud radiative feedbacks, models need to realistically simulate the lifecycle of tropical convection, including the formation and radiative properties of ice anvil clouds. By combining remote sensing datasets from precipitation and cloud radars at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Darwin site with geostationary satellite data, we can develop observational understanding of the lifetime of convective systems and the links between the properties of convective systems and their associated anvil clouds. The relationships between convection and anvil in model simulations can then be compared to those seen in the observations to identify areas for improvement in the model simulations. We identify and track tropical convective systems in the Tropical Western Pacific using geostationary satellite observations. We present statistics of the tropical convective systems including size, age, and intensity and classify the lifecycle stage of each system as developing, mature, or dissipating. For systems that cross over the ARM Darwin site, information on convective intensity and anvil properties are obtained from the C-Pol precipitation radar and MMCR cloud radar, respectively, and are examined as a function of the system lifecycle. Initial results from applying the convective identification and tracking algorithm to a tropical simulation from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run show that the model produces reasonable overall statistics of convective systems, but details of the life cycle (such as diurnal cycle, system tracks) differ from the observations. Further work will focus on the role of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles in the model's convective life cycle.

On the potential influence of ice nuclei on surface-forced marine stratocumulus cloud dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, Jerry Y.; Olsson, Peter Q.

2001-11-01

The mixed phase cloudy boundary layer that occurs during off-ice flow in the marine Arctic was simulated in an environment with a strong surface heat flux (nearly 800 W m-2). A two-dimensional, eddy-resolving model coupled to a detailed cloud microphysical model was used to study both liquid phase and mixed phase stratocumulus clouds and boundary layer (BL) dynamics in this environment. Since ice precipitation may be important to BL dynamics, and ice nuclei (IN) concentrations modulate ice precipitation rates, the role of IN in cloud and BL development was explored. The results of several simulations illustrate how mixed phase microphysical processes affect the evolution of the cloudy BL in this environment. In agreement with past studies, BLs with mixed phase clouds had weaker convection, shallower BL depths, and smaller cloud fractions than BLs with clouds restricted to the liquid phase only. It is shown that the weaker BL convection is due to strong ice precipitation. Ice precipitation reduces convective strength directly by stabilizing downdrafts and more indirectly by sensibly heating the BL and inhibiting vertical mixing of momentum thereby reducing surface heat fluxes by as much as 80 W m-2. This feedback between precipitation and surface fluxes was found to have a significant impact on cloud/BL morphology, producing oscillations in convective strength and cloud fraction that did not occur if surface fluxes were fixed at constant values. Increases in IN concentrations in mixed phase clouds caused a more rapid Bergeron-Findeisen process leading to larger precipitation fluxes, reduced convection and lower cloud fraction. When IN were removed from the BL through precipitation, fewer crystals were nucleated at later simulation times leading to progressively weaker precipitation rates, greater cloud fraction, and stronger convective BL eddies.

COSP: Satellite simulation software for model assessment

DOE PAGES

Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Webb, M. J.; Bony, S.; ...

2011-08-01

Errors in the simulation of clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) remain a long-standing issue in climate projections, as discussed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. This highlights the need for developing new analysis techniques to improve our knowledge of the physical processes at the root of these errors. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) pursues this objective, and under that framework the CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP) has been developed. COSP is a flexible software tool that enables the simulation of several satellite-borne active and passive sensor observations from model variables. The flexibilitymore » of COSP and a common interface for all sensors facilitates its use in any type of numerical model, from high-resolution cloud-resolving models to the coarser-resolution GCMs assessed by the IPCC, and the scales in between used in weather forecast and regional models. The diversity of model parameterization techniques makes the comparison between model and observations difficult, as some parameterized variables (e.g., cloud fraction) do not have the same meaning in all models. The approach followed in COSP permits models to be evaluated against observations and compared against each other in a more consistent manner. This thus permits a more detailed diagnosis of the physical processes that govern the behavior of clouds and precipitation in numerical models. The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Working Group on Coupled Modelling has recommended the use of COSP in a subset of climate experiments that will be assessed by the next IPCC report. Here we describe COSP, present some results from its application to numerical models, and discuss future work that will expand its capabilities.« less

Indian Summer Monsoon Drought 2009: Role of Aerosol and Cloud Microphysics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hazra, Anupam; Taraphdar, Sourav; Halder, Madhuparna

2013-07-01

Cloud dynamics played a fundamental role in defining Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall during drought in 2009. The anomalously negative precipitation was consistent with cloud properties. Although, aerosols inhibited the growth of cloud effective radius in the background of sparse water vapor, their role is secondary. The primary role, however, is played by the interactive feedback between cloud microphysics and dynamics owing to reduced efficient cloud droplet growth, lesser latent heating release and shortage of water content. Cloud microphysical processes were instrumental for the occurrence of ISM drought 2009.

An inquiry into the cirrus-cloud thermostat effect for tropical sea surface temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Sui, C.-H.; Chou, M.-D.; Tao, W.-K.

1994-01-01

In this paper, we investigate the relative importance of local vs remote control on cloud radiative forcing using a cumulus ensemble model. It is found that cloud and surface radiation forcings are much more sensitive to the mean vertical motion assoicated with large scale tropical circulation than to the local SST (sea surface temperature). When the local SST is increased with the mean vertical motion held constant, increased surface latent and sensible heat flux associated with enhanced moisture recycling is found to be the primary mechanism for cooling the ocean surface. Large changes in surface shortwave fluxes are related to changes in cloudiness induced by changes in the large scale circulation. These results are consistent with a number of earlier empirical studies, which raised concerns regarding the validity of the cirrus-thermostat hypothesis (Ramanathan and Collins, 1991). It is argued that for a better understanding of cloud feedback, both local and remote controls need to be considered and that a cumulus ensemble model is a powerful tool that should be explored for such purpose.

multi-dimensional Cloud-aERosol Exploratory Study using RPAS (mCERES): Bottom-up and top-down closure of aerosol-cloud interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Greg; Calmer, Radiance; Sanchez, Kevin; Cayez, Grégoire; Nicoll, Kerianne; Hashimshoni, Eyal; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Ansmann, Albert; Sciare, Jean; Ovadneite, Jurgita; Bronz, Murat; Hattenberger, Gautier; Preissler, Jana; Buehl, Johannes; Ceburnis, Darius; O'Dowd, Colin

2016-04-01

Clouds are omnipresent in earth's atmosphere and constitute an important role in regulating the radiative budget of the planet. However, the response of clouds to climate change remains uncertain, in particular, with respect to aerosol-cloud interactions and feedback mechanisms between the biosphere and atmosphere. Aerosol-cloud interactions and their feedbacks are the main themes of the European project FP7 BACCHUS (Impact of Biogenic versus Anthropogenic Emissions on Clouds and Climate: towards a Holistic Understanding). The National Center for Meteorological Research (CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France) conducted airborne experiments in Cyprus and Ireland in March and August 2015 respectively to link ground-based and satellite observations. Multiple RPAS (remotely piloted aircraft systems) were instrumented for a specific scientific focus to characterize the vertical distribution of aerosol, cloud microphysical properties, radiative fluxes, 3D wind vectors and meteorological state parameters. Flights below and within clouds were coordinated with satellite overpasses to perform 'top-down' closure of cloud micro-physical properties. Measurements of cloud condensation nuclei spectra at the ground-based site have been used to determine cloud microphyical properties using wind vectors and meteorological parameters measured by the RPAS at cloud base. These derived cloud properties have been validated by in-situ RPAS measurements in the cloud and compared to those derived by the Suomi-NPP satellite. In addition, RPAS profiles in Cyprus observed the layers of dust originating from the Arabian Peninsula and the Sahara Desert. These profiles generally show a well-mixed boundary layer and compare well with ground-based LIDAR observations.

Visualizing unstructured patient data for assessing diagnostic and therapeutic history.

PubMed

Deng, Yihan; Denecke, Kerstin

2014-01-01

Having access to relevant patient data is crucial for clinical decision making. The data is often documented in unstructured texts and collected in the electronic health record. In this paper, we evaluate an approach to visualize information extracted from clinical documents by means of tag cloud. Tag clouds will be generated using a bag of word approach and by exploiting part of speech tags. For a real word data set comprising radiological reports, pathological reports and surgical operation reports, tag clouds are generated and a questionnaire-based study is conducted as evaluation. Feedback from the physicians shows that the tag cloud visualization is an effective and rapid approach to represent relevant parts of unstructured patient data. To handle the different medical narratives, we have summarized several possible improvements according to the user feedback and evaluation results.

Using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Datasets to Evaluate Climate Models in Simulating Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of Tropical Clouds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Hailong; Burleyson, Casey D.; Ma, Po-Lun

We use the long-term Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) datasets collected at the three Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) sites as a tropical testbed to evaluate the ability of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) to simulate the various types of clouds, their seasonal and diurnal variations, and their impact on surface radiation. We conducted a series of CAM5 simulations at various horizontal grid spacing (around 2°, 1°, 0.5°, and 0.25°) with meteorological constraints from reanalysis. Model biases in the seasonal cycle of cloudiness are found to be weakly dependent on model resolution. Positive biases (up to 20%) in the annual mean totalmore » cloud fraction appear mostly in stratiform ice clouds. Higher-resolution simulations do reduce the positive bias in the frequency of ice clouds, but they inadvertently increase the negative biases in convective clouds and low-level liquid clouds, leading to a positive bias in annual mean shortwave fluxes at the sites, as high as 65 W m-2 in the 0.25° simulation. Such resolution-dependent biases in clouds can adversely lead to biases in ambient thermodynamic properties and, in turn, feedback on clouds. Both the CAM5 model and ARM observations show distinct diurnal cycles in total, stratiform and convective cloud fractions; however, they are out-of-phase by 12 hours and the biases vary by site. Our results suggest that biases in deep convection affect the vertical distribution and diurnal cycle of stratiform clouds through the transport of vapor and/or the detrainment of liquid and ice. We also found that the modelled gridmean surface longwave fluxes are systematically larger than site measurements when the grid that the ARM sites reside in is partially covered by ocean. The modeled longwave fluxes at such sites also lack a discernable diurnal cycle because the ocean part of the grid is warmer and less sensitive to radiative heating/cooling compared to land. Higher spatial resolution is more helpful is this regard. Our testbed approach can be easily adapted for the evaluation of new parameterizations being developed for CAM5 or other global or regional model simulations at high spatial resolutions.« less

Fog and rain in the Amazon

PubMed Central

Anber, Usama; Gentine, Pierre; Wang, Shuguang; Sobel, Adam H.

2015-01-01

The diurnal and seasonal water cycles in the Amazon remain poorly simulated in general circulation models, exhibiting peak evapotranspiration in the wrong season and rain too early in the day. We show that those biases are not present in cloud-resolving simulations with parameterized large-scale circulation. The difference is attributed to the representation of the morning fog layer, and to more accurate characterization of convection and its coupling with large-scale circulation. The morning fog layer, present in the wet season but absent in the dry season, dramatically increases cloud albedo, which reduces evapotranspiration through its modulation of the surface energy budget. These results highlight the importance of the coupling between the energy and hydrological cycles and the key role of cloud albedo feedback for climates over tropical continents. PMID:26324902

Fog and rain in the Amazon

DOE PAGES

Anber, Usama; Gentine, Pierre; Wang, Shuguang; ...

2015-08-31

The diurnal and seasonal water cycles in the Amazon remain poorly simulated in general circulation models, exhibiting peak evapotranspiration in the wrong season and rain too early in the day. We show that those biases are not present in cloud-resolving simulations with parameterized large-scale circulation. The difference is attributed to the representation of the morning fog layer, and to more accurate characterization of convection and its coupling with large-scale circulation. The morning fog layer, present in the wet season but absent in the dry season, dramatically increases cloud albedo, which reduces evapotranspiration through its modulation of the surface energy budget.more » Finally, these results highlight the importance of the coupling between the energy and hydrological cycles and the key role of cloud albedo feedback for climates over tropical continents.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anber, Usama; Gentine, Pierre; Wang, Shuguang

The diurnal and seasonal water cycles in the Amazon remain poorly simulated in general circulation models, exhibiting peak evapotranspiration in the wrong season and rain too early in the day. We show that those biases are not present in cloud-resolving simulations with parameterized large-scale circulation. The difference is attributed to the representation of the morning fog layer, and to more accurate characterization of convection and its coupling with large-scale circulation. The morning fog layer, present in the wet season but absent in the dry season, dramatically increases cloud albedo, which reduces evapotranspiration through its modulation of the surface energy budget.more » Finally, these results highlight the importance of the coupling between the energy and hydrological cycles and the key role of cloud albedo feedback for climates over tropical continents.« less

Can feedback analysis be used to uncover the physical origin of climate sensitivity and efficacy differences?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieger, Vanessa S.; Dietmüller, Simone; Ponater, Michael

2017-10-01

Different strengths and types of radiative forcings cause variations in the climate sensitivities and efficacies. To relate these changes to their physical origin, this study tests whether a feedback analysis is a suitable approach. For this end, we apply the partial radiative perturbation method. Combining the forward and backward calculation turns out to be indispensable to ensure the additivity of feedbacks and to yield a closed forcing-feedback-balance at top of the atmosphere. For a set of CO2-forced simulations, the climate sensitivity changes with increasing forcing. The albedo, cloud and combined water vapour and lapse rate feedback are found to be responsible for the variations in the climate sensitivity. An O3-forced simulation (induced by enhanced NOx and CO surface emissions) causes a smaller efficacy than a CO2-forced simulation with a similar magnitude of forcing. We find that the Planck, albedo and most likely the cloud feedback are responsible for this effect. Reducing the radiative forcing impedes the statistical separability of feedbacks. We additionally discuss formal inconsistencies between the common ways of comparing climate sensitivities and feedbacks. Moreover, methodical recommendations for future work are given.

Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2.

PubMed

Donohoe, Aaron; Armour, Kyle C; Pendergrass, Angeline G; Battisti, David S

2014-11-25

In response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, high-end general circulation models (GCMs) simulate an accumulation of energy at the top of the atmosphere not through a reduction in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)—as one might expect from greenhouse gas forcing—but through an enhancement of net absorbed solar radiation (ASR). A simple linear radiative feedback framework is used to explain this counterintuitive behavior. It is found that the timescale over which OLR returns to its initial value after a CO2 perturbation depends sensitively on the magnitude of shortwave (SW) feedbacks. If SW feedbacks are sufficiently positive, OLR recovers within merely several decades, and any subsequent global energy accumulation is because of enhanced ASR only. In the GCM mean, this OLR recovery timescale is only 20 y because of robust SW water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks. However, a large spread in the net SW feedback across models (because of clouds) produces a range of OLR responses; in those few models with a weak SW feedback, OLR takes centuries to recover, and energy accumulation is dominated by reduced OLR. Observational constraints of radiative feedbacks—from satellite radiation and surface temperature data—suggest an OLR recovery timescale of decades or less, consistent with the majority of GCMs. Altogether, these results suggest that, although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce OLR, the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced ASR.

Remote Sensing of Cloud Top Heights Using the Research Scanning Polarimeter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sinclair, Kenneth; van Diedenhoven, Bastiaan; Cairns, Brian; Yorks, John; Wasilewski, Andrzej

2015-01-01

Clouds cover roughly two thirds of the globe and act as an important regulator of Earth's radiation budget. Of these, multilayered clouds occur about half of the time and are predominantly two-layered. Changes in cloud top height (CTH) have been predicted by models to have a globally averaged positive feedback, however observational changes in CTH have shown uncertain results. Additional CTH observations are necessary to better and quantify the effect. Improved CTH observations will also allow for improved sub-grid parameterizations in large-scale models and accurate CTH information is important when studying variations in freezing point and cloud microphysics. NASA's airborne Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) is able to measure cloud top height using a novel multi-angular contrast approach. RSP scans along the aircraft track and obtains measurements at 152 viewing angles at any aircraft location. The approach presented here aggregates measurements from multiple scans to a single location at cloud altitude using a correlation function designed to identify the location-distinct features in each scan. During NASAs SEAC4RS air campaign, the RSP was mounted on the ER-2 aircraft along with the Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL), which made simultaneous measurements of CTH. The RSPs unique method of determining CTH is presented. The capabilities of using single and combinations of channels within the approach are investigated. A detailed comparison of RSP retrieved CTHs with those of CPL reveal the accuracy of the approach. Results indicate a strong ability for the RSP to accurately identify cloud heights. Interestingly, the analysis reveals an ability for the approach to identify multiple cloud layers in a single scene and estimate the CTH of each layer. Capabilities and limitations of identifying single and multiple cloud layers heights are explored. Special focus is given to sources of error in the method including optically thin clouds, physically thick clouds, multi-layered clouds as well as cloud phase. When determining multi-layered CTHs, limits on the upper clouds opacity are assessed.

The Effect of Environmental Conditions on Tropical Deep Convective Systems Observed from the TRMM Satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Bing; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Minnis, Patrick; Chambers, Lin H.; Xu, Kuan-Man; Hu, Yongxiang; Fan, Tai-Fang

2005-01-01

This study uses measurements of radiation and cloud properties taken between January and August 1998 by three Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) instruments, the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) scanner, the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), and the Visible and InfraRed Scanner (VIRS), to evaluate the variations of tropical deep convective systems (DCS) with sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation. This study finds that DCS precipitation efficiency increases with SST at a rate of approx. 2%/K. Despite increasing rainfall efficiency, the cloud areal coverage rises with SST at a rate of about 7%/K in the warm tropical seas. There, the boundary layer moisture supply for deep convection and the moisture transported to the upper troposphere for cirrus-anvil cloud formation increase by approx. 6.3%/K and approx. 4.0%/K, respectively. The changes in cloud formation efficiency, along with the increased transport of moisture available for cloud formation, likely contribute to the large rate of increasing DCS areal coverage. Although no direct observations are available, the increase of cloud formation efficiency with rising SST is deduced indirectly from measurements of changes in the ratio of DCS ice water path and boundary layer water vapor amount with SST. Besides the cloud areal coverage, DCS cluster effective sizes also increase with precipitation. Furthermore, other cloud properties, such as cloud total water and ice water paths, increase with SST. These changes in DCS properties will produce a negative radiative feedback for the earth's climate system due to strong reflection of shortwave radiation by the DCS. These results significantly differ from some previous hypothesized dehydration scenarios for warmer climates, and have great potential in testing current cloud-system resolving models and convective parameterizations of general circulation models.

GRAVITATIONAL CONTRACTION VERSUS SUPERNOVA DRIVING AND THE ORIGIN OF THE VELOCITY DISPERSION–SIZE RELATION IN MOLECULAR CLOUDS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ibáñez-Mejía, Juan C.; Mac Low, Mordecai-Mark; Klessen, Ralf S.

Molecular cloud (MC) observations show that clouds have non-thermal velocity dispersions that scale with the cloud size as σ ∝ R {sup 1/2} at a constant surface density, and for varying surface density scale with both the cloud’s size and surface density, σ {sup 2} ∝ R Σ. The energy source driving these chaotic motions remains poorly understood. We describe the velocity dispersions observed in a cloud population formed in a numerical simulation of a magnetized, stratified, supernova (SN)-driven, interstellar medium, including diffuse heating and radiative cooling, before and after we include the effects of the self-gravity of the gas.more » We compare the relationships between velocity dispersion, size, and surface density measured in the simulated cloud population to those found in observations of Galactic MCs. Our simulations prior to the onset of self-gravity suggest that external SN explosions alone do not drive turbulent motions of the observed magnitudes within dense clouds. On the other hand, self-gravity induces non-thermal motions as gravitationally bound clouds begin to collapse in our model, approaching the observed relations between velocity dispersion, size, and surface density. Energy conservation suggests that the observed behavior is consistent with the kinetic energy being proportional to the gravitational energy. However, the clouds in our model show no sign of reaching a stable equilibrium state at any time, even for strongly magnetized clouds. We conclude that gravitationally bound MCs are always in a state of gravitational contraction and their properties are a natural result of this chaotic collapse. In order to agree with observed star formation efficiencies, this process must be terminated by the early destruction of the clouds, presumably from internal stellar feedback.« less

Coincident Occurrences of Tropical Individual Cirrus Clouds and Deep Convective Systems Derived from TRMM Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Bing; Xu, Kuan-Man; Minnis, Patrick; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Hu, Yongxiang; Chambers, Lin; Fan, Alice; Sun, Wenbo

2007-01-01

Measurements of cloud properties and atmospheric radiation taken between January and August 1998 by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite were used to investigate the effect of spatial and temporal scales on the coincident occurrences of tropical individual cirrus clouds (ICCs) and deep convective systems (DCSs). It is found that there is little or even negative correlation between instantaneous occurrences of ICC and DCS in small areas, in which both types of clouds cannot grow and expand simultaneously. When spatial and temporal domains are increased, ICCs become more dependent on DCSs due to the origination of many ICCs from DCSs and moisture supply from the DCS in the upper troposphere for the ICCs to grow, resulting in significant positive correlation between the two types of tropical high clouds in large spatial and long temporal scales. This result may suggest that the decrease of tropical high clouds with SST from model simulations is likely caused by restricted spatial domains and limited temporal periods. Finally, the radiative feedback due to the change in tropical high cloud area coverage with sea surface temperature appears small and about -0.14 W/sq m per degree Kelvin.

Exploring the Dynamics of Exoplanetary Systems in a Young Stellar Cluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, Jonathan Daniel; Glaser, Joseph Paul; Wall, Joshua Edward

2018-01-01

I describe a dynamical simulation of planetary systems in a young star cluster. One rather arbitrary aspect of cluster simulations is the choice of initial conditions. These are typically chosen from some standard model, such as Plummer or King, or from a “fractal” distribution to try to model young clumpy systems. Here I adopt the approach of realizing an initial cluster model directly from a detailed magnetohydrodynamical model of cluster formation from a 1000-solar-mass interstellar gas cloud, with magnetic fields and radiative and wind feedback from massive stars included self-consistently. The N-body simulation of the stars and planets starts once star formation is largely over and feedback has cleared much of the gas from the region where the newborn stars reside. It continues until the cluster dissolves in the galactic field. Of particular interest is what would happen to the free-floating planets created in the gas cloud simulation. Are they captured by a star or are they ejected from the cluster? This method of building a dynamical cluster simulation directly from the results of a cluster formation model allows us to better understand the evolution of young star clusters and enriches our understanding of extrasolar planet development in them. These simulations were performed within the AMUSE simulation framework, and combine N-body, multiples and background potential code.

Observation of local cloud and moisture feedbacks over high ocean and desert surface temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chahine, Moustafa T.

1995-01-01

New data on clouds and moisture, made possible by reanalysis of weather satellite observations, show that the atmosphere reacts to warm clusters of very high sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific Ocean with increased moisture, cloudiness, and convection, suggesting a negative feedback limiting the sea surface temperature rise. The reverse was observed over dry and hot deserts where both moisture and cloudiness decrease, suggesting a positive feedback perpetuating existing desert conditions. In addition, the observations show a common critical surface temperature for both oceans and land; the distribution of atmospheric moisture is observed to reach a maximum value when the daily surface temperatures approach 304 +/- 1 K. These observations reveal complex dynamic-radiative interactions where multiple processes act simultaneously at the surface as well as in the atmosphere to regulate the feedback processes.

The impact of low-level cloud over the eastern subtropical Pacific on the ``Double ITCZ'' in LASG FGCM-0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Fushan; Yu, Rucong; Zhang, Xuehong; Yu, Yongqiang; Li, Jianglong

2003-05-01

Like many other coupled models, the Flexible coupled General Circulation Model (FGCM-0) suffers from the spurious “Double ITCZ”. In order to understand the “Double ITCZ” in FGCM-0, this study first examines the low-level cloud cover and the bulk stability of the low troposphere over the eastern subtropical Pacific simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3), which is the atmosphere component model of FGCM-0. It is found that the bulk stability of the low troposphere simulated by CCM3 is very consistent with the one derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, but the simulated low-level cloud cover is much less than that derived from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) D2 data. Based on the regression equations between the low-level cloud cover from the ISCCP data and the bulk stability of the low troposphere derived from the NCEP reanalysis, the parameterization scheme of low-level cloud in CCM3 is modified and used in sensitivity experiments to examine the impact of low-level cloud over the eastern subtropical Pacific on the spurious “Double ITCZ” in FGCM-0. Results show that the modified scheme causes the simulated low-level cloud cover to be improved locally over the cold oceans. Increasing the low-level cloud cover off Peru not only significantly alleviates the SST warm biases in the southeastern tropical Pacific, but also causes the equatorial cold tongue to be strengthened and to extend further west. Increasing the low-level cloud fraction off California effectively reduces the SST warm biases in ITCZ north of the equator. In order to examine the feedback between the SST and low-level cloud cover off Peru, one additional sensitivity experiment is performed in which the SST over the cold ocean off Peru is restored. It shows that decreasing the SST results in similar impacts over the wide regions from the southeastern tropical Pacific northwestwards to the western/central equatorial Pacific as increasing the low-level cloud cover does.

July 2012 Greenland melt extent enhanced by low-level liquid clouds.

PubMed

Bennartz, R; Shupe, M D; Turner, D D; Walden, V P; Steffen, K; Cox, C J; Kulie, M S; Miller, N B; Pettersen, C

2013-04-04

Melting of the world's major ice sheets can affect human and environmental conditions by contributing to sea-level rise. In July 2012, an historically rare period of extended surface melting was observed across almost the entire Greenland ice sheet, raising questions about the frequency and spatial extent of such events. Here we show that low-level clouds consisting of liquid water droplets ('liquid clouds'), via their radiative effects, played a key part in this melt event by increasing near-surface temperatures. We used a suite of surface-based observations, remote sensing data, and a surface energy-balance model. At the critical surface melt time, the clouds were optically thick enough and low enough to enhance the downwelling infrared flux at the surface. At the same time they were optically thin enough to allow sufficient solar radiation to penetrate through them and raise surface temperatures above the melting point. Outside this narrow range in cloud optical thickness, the radiative contribution to the surface energy budget would have been diminished, and the spatial extent of this melting event would have been smaller. We further show that these thin, low-level liquid clouds occur frequently, both over Greenland and across the Arctic, being present around 30-50 per cent of the time. Our results may help to explain the difficulties that global climate models have in simulating the Arctic surface energy budget, particularly as models tend to under-predict the formation of optically thin liquid clouds at supercooled temperatures--a process potentially necessary to account fully for temperature feedbacks in a warming Arctic climate.

Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chen, Jen-Ping; Li, Zhanqing; Wang, Chien; Zhang, Chidong; Li, Xiaowen

2012-01-01

Aerosols are a critical.factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major agent for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosols have a major impact on the dynamics, microphysics, and electrification properties of continental mixed-phase convective clouds. In addition, high aerosol concentrations in urban environments could affect precipitation variability by providing a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Such pollution . effects on precipitation potentially have enormous climatic consequences both in terms of feedbacks involving the land surface via rainfall as well as the surface energy budget and changes in latent heat input to the atmosphere. Basically, aerosol concentrations can influence cloud droplet size distributions, the warm-rain process, the cold-rain process, cloud-top heights, the depth of the mixed-phase region, and the occurrence of lightning. Recently, many cloud resolution models (CRMs) have been used to examine the role of aerosols on mixed-phase convective clouds. These modeling studies have many differences in terms of model configuration (two- or three-dimensional), domain size, grid spacing (150-3000 m), microphysics (two-moment bulk, simple or sophisticated spectral-bin), turbulence (1st or 1.5 order turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)), radiation, lateral boundary conditions (i.e., closed, radiative open or cyclic), cases (isolated convection, tropical or midlatitude squall lines) and model integration time (e.g., 2.5 to 48 hours). Among these modeling studies, the most striking difference is that cumulative precipitation can either increase or decrease in response to higher concentrations of CCN. In this presentation, we review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on convective precipitation processes. Specifically, this paper addresses the following topics: observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, and results from (CRM) simulations. Note that this presentation is mainly based on a recent paper published in Geophy. Rev. (Tao et al. 2012).

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W. K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, J.; Shie, C. -L.; Lau, W. K. -M.; Kakar, R.; Starr, David O' C. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China (Lau et al. 2000). Multiple observation platforms (e.g., soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind seafarers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes, associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets (Johnson and Ciesielski 2002) and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional climate model and a cloud-resolving model are used to perform multi-day integrations to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil - precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Atlantic River during SCSMEX. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CASE), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences are also performed to understand the processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes with very fine spatial and temporal resolution. One of the major characteristics of CRMs is an explicit interaction between clouds, radiation and the land/ocean surface. It is for this reason that GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) has formed the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) expressly for the purpose of improving the representation of the moist processes in large-scale models using CRMs. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM and is used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea monsoon in 1998. The BRUCE model includes the same land surface model, cloud physics, and radiation scheme used in the regional climate model. A comparison between the results from the GCE model and regional climate model is performed.

Increased insolation threshold for runaway greenhouse processes on Earth-like planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leconte, Jérémy; Forget, Francois; Charnay, Benjamin; Wordsworth, Robin; Pottier, Alizée

2013-12-01

The increase in solar luminosity over geological timescales should warm the Earth's climate, increasing water evaporation, which will in turn enhance the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Above a certain critical insolation, this destabilizing greenhouse feedback can `run away' until the oceans have completely evaporated. Through increases in stratospheric humidity, warming may also cause evaporative loss of the oceans to space before the runaway greenhouse state occurs. The critical insolation thresholds for these processes, however, remain uncertain because they have so far been evaluated using one-dimensional models that cannot account for the dynamical and cloud feedback effects that are key stabilizing features of the Earth's climate. Here we use a three-dimensional global climate model to show that the insolation threshold for the runaway greenhouse state to occur is about 375 W m-2, which is significantly higher than previously thought. Our model is specifically developed to quantify the climate response of Earth-like planets to increased insolation in hot and extremely moist atmospheres. In contrast with previous studies, we find that clouds have a destabilizing feedback effect on the long-term warming. However, subsident, unsaturated regions created by the Hadley circulation have a stabilizing effect that is strong enough to shift the runaway greenhouse limit to higher values of insolation than are inferred from one-dimensional models. Furthermore, because of wavelength-dependent radiative effects, the stratosphere remains sufficiently cold and dry to hamper the escape of atmospheric water, even at large fluxes. This has strong implications for the possibility of liquid water existing on Venus early in its history, and extends the size of the habitable zone around other stars.

Understanding the effect of an excessive cold tongue bias on projecting the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ying, Jun; Huang, Ping; Lian, Tao; Tan, Hongjian

2018-05-01

An excessive cold tongue is a common bias among current climate models, and considered an important source of bias in projections of tropical Pacific climate change under global warming. Specifically, the excessive cold tongue bias is closely related to the tropical Pacific SST warming (TPSW) pattern. In this study, we reveal that two processes are the critical mechanisms by which the excessive cold tongue bias influences the projection of the TPSW pattern, based on 32 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP5). On the one hand, by assuming that the shortwave (SW) radiation to SST feedback is linearly correlated to the cold tongue SST, the excessive cold tongue bias can induce an overly weak negative SW-SST feedback in the central Pacific, which can lead to a positive SST warming bias in the central to western Pacific (around 150°E-140°W). Moreover, the overly weak local atmospheric dynamics response to SST is a key process of the overly weak SW-SST feedback, compared with the cloud response to atmospheric dynamics and the SW radiation response to cloud. On the other hand, the overly strong ocean zonal overturning circulation associated with the excessive cold tongue bias results in an overestimation of the ocean dynamical thermostat effect, with enhanced ocean stratification under global warming, leading to a negative SST warming bias in the central and eastern Pacific (around 170°W-120°W). These two processes jointly form a positive SST warming bias in the western Pacific, contributing to a La Niña-like warming bias. Therefore, we suggest a more realistic climatological cold tongue SST is needed for a more reliable projection of the TPSW pattern.

Increased insolation threshold for runaway greenhouse processes on Earth-like planets.

PubMed

Leconte, Jérémy; Forget, Francois; Charnay, Benjamin; Wordsworth, Robin; Pottier, Alizée

2013-12-12

The increase in solar luminosity over geological timescales should warm the Earth's climate, increasing water evaporation, which will in turn enhance the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Above a certain critical insolation, this destabilizing greenhouse feedback can 'run away' until the oceans have completely evaporated. Through increases in stratospheric humidity, warming may also cause evaporative loss of the oceans to space before the runaway greenhouse state occurs. The critical insolation thresholds for these processes, however, remain uncertain because they have so far been evaluated using one-dimensional models that cannot account for the dynamical and cloud feedback effects that are key stabilizing features of the Earth's climate. Here we use a three-dimensional global climate model to show that the insolation threshold for the runaway greenhouse state to occur is about 375 W m(-2), which is significantly higher than previously thought. Our model is specifically developed to quantify the climate response of Earth-like planets to increased insolation in hot and extremely moist atmospheres. In contrast with previous studies, we find that clouds have a destabilizing feedback effect on the long-term warming. However, subsident, unsaturated regions created by the Hadley circulation have a stabilizing effect that is strong enough to shift the runaway greenhouse limit to higher values of insolation than are inferred from one-dimensional models. Furthermore, because of wavelength-dependent radiative effects, the stratosphere remains sufficiently cold and dry to hamper the escape of atmospheric water, even at large fluxes. This has strong implications for the possibility of liquid water existing on Venus early in its history, and extends the size of the habitable zone around other stars.

Large Eddy Simulation of Cirrus Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Ting; Cotton, William R.

1999-01-01

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) with mesoscale interactive nested-grids and a Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) version of RAMS, coupled to two-moment microphysics and a new two-stream radiative code were used to investigate the dynamic, microphysical, and radiative aspects of the November 26, 1991 cirrus event. Wu (1998) describes the results of that research in full detail and is enclosed as Appendix 1. The mesoscale nested grid simulation successfully reproduced the large scale circulation as compared to the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System's (MAPS) analyses and other observations. Three cloud bands which match nicely to the three cloud lines identified in an observational study (Mace et al., 1995) are predicted on Grid #2 of the nested grids, even though the mesoscale simulation predicts a larger west-east cloud width than what was observed. Large-eddy simulations (LES) were performed to study the dynamical, microphysical, and radiative processes in the 26 November 1991 FIRE 11 cirrus event. The LES model is based on the RAMS version 3b developed at Colorado State University. It includes a new radiation scheme developed by Harrington (1997) and a new subgrid scale model developed by Kosovic (1996). The LES model simulated a single cloud layer for Case 1 and a two-layer cloud structure for Case 2. The simulations demonstrated that latent heat release can play a significant role in the formation and development of cirrus clouds. For the thin cirrus in Case 1, the latent heat release was insufficient for the cirrus clouds to become positively buoyant. However, in some special cases such as Case 2, positively buoyant cells can be embedded within the cirrus layers. These cells were so active that the rising updraft induced its own pressure perturbations that affected the cloud evolution. Vertical profiles of the total radiative and latent heating rates indicated that for well developed, deep, and active cirrus clouds, radiative cooling and latent heating could be comparable in magnitude in the cloudy layer. This implies that latent heating cannot be neglected in the construction of a cirrus cloud model. The probability density function (PDF) of w was analyzed to assist in the parameterization of cloud-scale velocities in large-scale models. For the more radiatively-driven, thin cirrus case, the PDFs are approximately Gaussian. However, in the interior of the deep, convectively unstable case, the PDFs of w are multi-modal and very broad, indicating that parameterizing cloud-scale motions for such clouds can be very challenging. The results of this research are described in detail in a paper submitted to the Journal of Atmospheric Science (Wu and Cotton, 1999), which is enclosed as Appendix 2. Using soundings extracted from a mesoscale simulation of the November 26, 1991 cirrus event, the radiative effects on vapor deposition/sublimation of ice crystals was studied using a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model (CRM) version of RAMS, coupled to an explicit bin-resolving microphysics. The CRM simulations of the November 26, 1991 cirrus event demonstrate that the radiative impact on the diffusional growth (or sublimation) of ice crystals is significant. In this case, the ice particles experienced radiative warming. Model results show that radiative feedbacks in the diffusional growth of ice particles can be very complex. Radiative warming of an ice particle will restrict the particle's diffusional growth. In the case of radiative warming, ice particles larger than a certain size will experience so much radiative warming that surface ice saturation vapor pressures become large enough to cause sublimation of the larger crystals, while smaller crystals are growing by vapor deposition. However, ice mass production can be enhanced in the case of radiative cooling of an ice particle. For the November 26, 1991 cirrus event, radiative feedback results in significant reduction in the total ice mass, especially in the production of large ice crystals, and consequently, both radiative and dynamic properties of the cirrus cloud are significantly affected. A complete description of this research has been submitted as a paper to the Journal of Atmospheric Science (Wu et al., 1999), and included as Appendix 3.

Mapping the Habitable Zone of Exoplanets with a 2D Energy Balance Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Nicole Taylor; Dr. Lisa Kaltenegger, Dr. Ramses Ramirez

2018-01-01

Traditionally, the habitable zone has been defined as the distance at which liquid water could exist on the surface of a rocky planet. However, different complexity models (simplified and fast:1D, and complex and time-intense:3D) models derive different boundaries for the habitable zone. The goal of this project was to test a new intermediate complexity 2D Energy Balance model, add a new ice albedo feedback mechanism, and derive the habitable zone boundaries. After completing this first project, we also studied how other feedback mechanisms, such as the presence of clouds and the carbonate-silicate cycle, effected the location of the habitable zone boundaries using this 2D model. This project was completed as part of a 2017 summer REU program hosted by Cornell's Center for Astrophysics and Plantary Sciecne and in partnership with the Carl Sagan Institute.

Cloud Feedback Key to Marine Heatwave off Baja California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers, Timothy A.; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Cesana, Gregory V.; DeFlorio, Michael J.; Waliser, Duane E.

2018-05-01

Between 2013 and 2015, the northeast Pacific Ocean experienced the warmest surface temperature anomalies in the modern observational record. This "marine heatwave" marked a shift of Pacific decadal variability to its warm phase and was linked to significant impacts on marine species as well as exceptionally arid conditions in western North America. Here we show that the subtropical signature of this warming, off Baja California, was associated with a record deficit in the spatial coverage of co-located marine boundary layer clouds. This deficit coincided with a large increase in downwelling solar radiation that dominated the anomalous energy budget of the upper ocean, resulting in record-breaking warm sea surface temperature anomalies. Our observation-based analysis suggests that a positive cloud-surface temperature feedback was key to the extreme intensity of the heatwave. The results demonstrate the extent to which boundary layer clouds can contribute to regional variations in climate.

Geobiological constraints on Earth system sensitivity to CO₂ during the Cretaceous and Cenozoic.

PubMed

Royer, D L; Pagani, M; Beerling, D J

2012-07-01

Earth system climate sensitivity (ESS) is the long-term (>10³ year) response of global surface temperature to doubled CO₂ that integrates fast and slow climate feedbacks. ESS has energy policy implications because global temperatures are not expected to decline appreciably for at least 10³ year, even if anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions drop to zero. We report provisional ESS estimates of 3 °C or higher for some of the Cretaceous and Cenozoic based on paleo-reconstructions of CO₂ and temperature. These estimates are generally higher than climate sensitivities simulated from global climate models for the same ancient periods (approximately 3 °C). Climate models probably do not capture the full suite of positive climate feedbacks that amplify global temperatures during some globally warm periods, as well as other characteristic features of warm climates such as low meridional temperature gradients. These absent feedbacks may be related to clouds, trace greenhouse gases (GHGs), seasonal snow cover, and/or vegetation, especially in polar regions. Better characterization and quantification of these feedbacks is a priority given the current accumulation of atmospheric GHGs. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Critical Mechanisms for the Formation of Extreme Arctic Sea-Ice Extent in the Summers of 2007 and 1996

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dong, Xiquan; Zib, Benjamin J.; Xi, Baike

A warming Arctic climate is undergoing significant e 21 nvironmental change, most evidenced by the reduction of Arctic sea-ice extent during the summer. In this study, we examine two extreme anomalies of September sea-ice extent in 2007 and 1996, and investigate the impacts of cloud fraction (CF), atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV), downwelling longwave flux (DLF), surface air temperature (SAT), pressure and winds on the sea-ice variation in 2007 and 1996 using both satellite-derived sea-ice products and MERRA reanalysis. The area of the Laptev, East Siberian and West Chukchi seas (70-90oN, 90-180oE) has experienced the largest variation in sea-ice extentmore » from year-to-year and defined here as the Area Of Focus (AOF). The record low September sea-ice extent in 2007 was associated with positive anomalies 30 of CF, PWV, DLF, and SAT over the AOF. Persistent anti-cyclone positioned over the Beaufort Sea coupled with low pressure over Eurasia induced easterly zonal and southerly meridional winds. In contrast, negative CF, PWV, DLF and SAT anomalies, as well as opposite wind patterns to those in 2007, characterized the 1996 high September sea-ice extent. Through this study, we hypothesize the following positive feedbacks of clouds, water vapor, radiation and atmospheric variables on the sea-ice retreat during the summer 2007. The record low sea-ice extent during the summer 2007 is initially triggered by the atmospheric circulation anomaly. The southerly winds across the Chukchi and East Siberian seas transport warm, moist air from the north Pacific, which is not only enhancing sea-ice melt across the AOF, but also increasing clouds. The positive cloud feedback results in higher SAT and more sea-ice melt. Therefore, 40 more water vapor could be evaporated from open seas and higher SAT to form more clouds, which will enhance positive cloud feedback. This enhanced positive cloud feedback will then further increase SAT and accelerate the sea-ice retreat during the summer 2007.« less

Using ISCCP Weather States to Decompose Cloud Radiative Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oreopoulos, L.; Rossow, W. B.

2012-01-01

The presentation will examine the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) cloud radiative effect CRE (aka "cloud radiative forcing") at the top-of-the-atmosphere and surface of ISCCP weather states (aka "cloud regimes") in three distinct geographical zones, one tropical and two mid-latitude. Our goal is to understand and quantify the contribution of the different cloud regimes to the planetary radiation budget. In the tropics we find that the three most convectively active states are the ones with largest SW, LW and net TOA CRE contributions to the overall daytime tropical CRE budget. They account for 59%, 71% and 55% of the total CRE, respectively. The boundary layer-dominated weather states account for only 34% of the total SW CRE and 41% of the total net CRE, so to focus only on them in cloud feedback studies may be imprudent. We also find that in both the northern and southern midlatitude zones only two weather states, the first and third most convectively active with large amounts of nimbostratus-type clouds, contribute ",40% to both the SW and net TOA CRE budgets, highlighting the fact that cloud regimes associated with frontal systems are not only important for weather (precipitation) but also for climate (radiation budget). While all cloud regimes in all geographical zones have a slightly larger SFC than TOA SW CRE, implying cooling of the surface and slight warming of the atmosphere, their LW radiative effects are more subtle: in the tropics the weather states with plentiful high clouds warm the atmosphere while those with copious amounts of low clouds cool the atmosphere. In both midlatitude zones only the weather states with peak cloud fractions at levels above 440 mbar warm the atmosphere while all the rest cool it. These results make the connection of the contrasting CRE effects to the atmospheric dynamics more explicit - "storms" tend to warm the atmosphere whereas fair weather clouds cool it, suggesting a positive feedback of clouds on weather systems. The breakdown of CRE by cloud regime are however not entirely similar between the two midlatitude zones. Despite the existence of an additional state in the nort!lern midlatitudes, only four weather states have net daytime CREs with absolute values above 100 Watts per square meter compared to six in the south. This reminds us that the environment where clouds occur also has a crucial role in determining their radiative effects. All the above make evident that reproducing grand averages of current CRE by climate models in only part of the challenge. If existing cloud regimes and shifts in their distributions and frequency of occurrence in a changed climate are not properly simulated, the radiative role of clouds will not be adequately predicted.

A Local Laboratory for Studying Positive Feedback from Supermassive Black Holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croft, Steve

2016-10-01

AGN feedback is a critical regulator of galaxy growth. As well as curtailing star formation in diffuse, hot gas, it is increasingly understood to sometimes enhance star formation in the clumpy ISM through shock-induced collapse of clouds. Simulations have shown that such positive feedback may play a significant role in determining the stellar populations of galaxies. Minkowsi's Object (MO) provides an excellent local laboratory to probe this poorly-studied process in detail. The detection of a Type II supernova in MO (unexpected given the low mass of MO) suggests that jet-induced star formation may overproduce massive stars, and that models of the initial mass function in such systems may need to be revised. Recent results also suggest that star formation efficiency is enhanced in MO. Using WFC3, we will obtain morphologies, SEDs, H-a luminosities, equivalent widths, sizes, and population synthesis models of star forming regions across MO in order to address these questions, critical for understanding not just this single object, but the general process: 1. Does jet induced star formation change the luminosities and initial mass functions of star clusters? 2. What do the age gradients of the star clusters tell us about the process of conversion of gas (HI, CO) into stars as the radio jet progressed through the parent cloud? Does this match numerical simulations? 3. By using observations to refine simulations, what can we learn about intrinsic properties of these kinds of radio jets, such as propagation speed, age, pressure and jet energy flux?

The role of 1-D and 3-D radiative heating in the organization of shallow cumulus convection and the formation of cloud streets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakub, Fabian; Mayer, Bernhard

2017-11-01

The formation of shallow cumulus cloud streets was historically attributed primarily to dynamics. Here, we focus on the interaction between radiatively induced surface heterogeneities and the resulting patterns in the flow. Our results suggest that solar radiative heating has the potential to organize clouds perpendicular to the sun's incidence angle. To quantify the extent of organization, we performed a high-resolution large-eddy simulation (LES) parameter study. We varied the horizontal wind speed, the surface heat capacity, the solar zenith and azimuth angles, and radiative transfer parameterizations (1-D and 3-D). As a quantitative measure we introduce a simple algorithm that provides a scalar quantity for the degree of organization and the alignment. We find that, even in the absence of a horizontal wind, 3-D radiative transfer produces cloud streets perpendicular to the sun's incident direction, whereas the 1-D approximation or constant surface fluxes produce randomly positioned circular clouds. Our reasoning for the enhancement or reduction of organization is the geometric position of the cloud's shadow and its corresponding surface fluxes. Furthermore, when increasing horizontal wind speeds to 5 or 10 m s-1, we observe the development of dynamically induced cloud streets. If, in addition, solar radiation illuminates the surface beneath the cloud, i.e., when the sun is positioned orthogonally to the mean wind field and the solar zenith angle is larger than 20°, the cloud-radiative feedback has the potential to significantly enhance the tendency to organize in cloud streets. In contrast, in the case of the 1-D approximation (or overhead sun), the tendency to organize is weaker or even prohibited because the shadow is cast directly beneath the cloud. In a land-surface-type situation, we find the organization of convection happening on a timescale of half an hour. The radiative feedback, which creates surface heterogeneities, is generally diminished for large surface heat capacities. We therefore expect radiative feedbacks to be strongest over land surfaces and weaker over the ocean. Given the results of this study we expect that simulations including shallow cumulus convection will have difficulties producing cloud streets if they employ 1-D radiative transfer solvers or may need unrealistically high wind speeds to excite cloud street organization.

A New Approach to Integrate Internet-of-Things and Software-as-a-Service Model for Logistic Systems: A Case Study

PubMed Central

Chen, Shang-Liang; Chen, Yun-Yao; Hsu, Chiang

2014-01-01

Cloud computing is changing the ways software is developed and managed in enterprises, which is changing the way of doing business in that dynamically scalable and virtualized resources are regarded as services over the Internet. Traditional manufacturing systems such as supply chain management (SCM), customer relationship management (CRM), and enterprise resource planning (ERP) are often developed case by case. However, effective collaboration between different systems, platforms, programming languages, and interfaces has been suggested by researchers. In cloud-computing-based systems, distributed resources are encapsulated into cloud services and centrally managed, which allows high automation, flexibility, fast provision, and ease of integration at low cost. The integration between physical resources and cloud services can be improved by combining Internet of things (IoT) technology and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) technology. This study proposes a new approach for developing cloud-based manufacturing systems based on a four-layer SaaS model. There are three main contributions of this paper: (1) enterprises can develop their own cloud-based logistic management information systems based on the approach proposed in this paper; (2) a case study based on literature reviews with experimental results is proposed to verify that the system performance is remarkable; (3) challenges encountered and feedback collected from T Company in the case study are discussed in this paper for the purpose of enterprise deployment. PMID:24686728

A new approach to integrate Internet-of-things and software-as-a-service model for logistic systems: a case study.

PubMed

Chen, Shang-Liang; Chen, Yun-Yao; Hsu, Chiang

2014-03-28

Cloud computing is changing the ways software is developed and managed in enterprises, which is changing the way of doing business in that dynamically scalable and virtualized resources are regarded as services over the Internet. Traditional manufacturing systems such as supply chain management (SCM), customer relationship management (CRM), and enterprise resource planning (ERP) are often developed case by case. However, effective collaboration between different systems, platforms, programming languages, and interfaces has been suggested by researchers. In cloud-computing-based systems, distributed resources are encapsulated into cloud services and centrally managed, which allows high automation, flexibility, fast provision, and ease of integration at low cost. The integration between physical resources and cloud services can be improved by combining Internet of things (IoT) technology and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) technology. This study proposes a new approach for developing cloud-based manufacturing systems based on a four-layer SaaS model. There are three main contributions of this paper: (1) enterprises can develop their own cloud-based logistic management information systems based on the approach proposed in this paper; (2) a case study based on literature reviews with experimental results is proposed to verify that the system performance is remarkable; (3) challenges encountered and feedback collected from T Company in the case study are discussed in this paper for the purpose of enterprise deployment.

Forty-year (1971-2010) semiquantitative observations of visibility-cloud-precipitation in Korea and its implication for aerosol effects on regional climate.

PubMed

Lee, Hyo-Jung; Kang, Jeong-Eon; Kim, Cheol-Hee

2015-07-01

Forty-year (1971-2010) observations of cloud cover and types have been analyzed, and implications on the effects of aerosol-cloud feedback were explored. Cloud cover and types have been observed over Korea on the basis of visible (human-eye) attributes without any change in official observing instructions. Visibility has been used as an ongoing proxy measure of aerosol concentrations, and observed meteorological variables such as sunshine duration and precipitation have been employed to analyze aerosol causes and implications for urban and regional climate. The analysis revealed persistent decade-long patterns in Korea: steadily reduced visibility (-0.37 km/yr), consistently decreasing sunshine duration (-0.06 %/hr), and declining occurrence of light precipitation. Spatial distributions of sunshine duration and visibility exhibited more localized variations in the early period (1971-1990), and tended to be more uniform throughout Korea over more recent years (1991-2010), implying the recent regional-scale impact of cloud change over northeast Asia. Cloud analysis results showed that the five most common types were stratocumulus (Sc), cirrus (Ci), altostratus (As), stratus (St), and nimbostratus (Ns), with occurrences of 33%, 17%, 17%, 9%, and 8%, respectively. Occurrence of rarely precipitating or nonprecipitating low-level Sc clouds showed an increasing (+0.34%/yr), but no (or only minor) effects of aerosols on heavy precipitation such as cumulus cloud types were found. Cloud cover in the range of 6/10 to 8/10 units has increased by 31.5±6.5%, and occurrences of both cloud-free (~2/10 units) and overcast (~8/10 units) conditions have decreased. Aerosol-cloud-precipitations interaction is highly nonlinear due to feedback mechanisms. One reason for our poor understanding of the aerosol-cloud feedback study is the variety of cloud types with their complicated responses to variations of the aerosol. Our study on the response of precipitation-cloud to long-term anthropogenic aerosols over 40 years (1971-2010) in South Korea demonstrated that recent changes tend to be at a regional scale, and change in stratocumulus clouds is the most significant. In addition, the changes in cloud-relevant meteorological variables such as sunshine duration and light precipitation were not consistent with expected local anthropogenic aerosol after 1990, implying the importance of long range transboundary influence on a regional or larger than urban scale over the recent years in the northeast Asian region.

Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet

PubMed Central

Hofer, Stefan; Tedstone, Andrew J.; Fettweis, Xavier; Bamber, Jonathan L.

2017-01-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that the abrupt reduction in surface mass balance since about 1995 can be attributed largely to a coincident trend of decreasing summer cloud cover enhancing the melt-albedo feedback. Satellite observations show that, from 1995 to 2009, summer cloud cover decreased by 0.9 ± 0.3% per year. Model output indicates that the GrIS summer melt increases by 27 ± 13 gigatons (Gt) per percent reduction in summer cloud cover, principally because of the impact of increased shortwave radiation over the low albedo ablation zone. The observed reduction in cloud cover is strongly correlated with a state shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation promoting anticyclonic conditions in summer and suggests that the enhanced surface mass loss from the GrIS is driven by synoptic-scale changes in Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation. PMID:28782014

Atmospheric Profiles, Clouds, and the Evolution of Sea Ice Cover in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas Atmospheric Observations and Modeling as Part of the Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Surveys

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

Ice Cover in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas Atmospheric Observations and Modeling as Part of the Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Surveys Axel...temperatures. These changes in turn will affect the evolution of the SIZ. An appropriate representation of this feedback loop in models is critical if we... modeling experiments as part of the atmospheric component of the Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Survey project (SIZRS). We will • Determine the role

On the response of MODIS cloud coverage to global mean surface air temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Qing; Kahn, Brian H.; Fetzer, Eric J.; Wong, Sun; Frey, Richard; Meyer, Kerry G.

2017-01-01

The global surface temperature change (ΔTs) mediated cloud cover response is directly related to cloud-climate feedback. Using satellite remote sensing data to relate cloud and climate requires a well-calibrated, stable, and consistent long-term cloud data record. The Collection 5.1 (C5) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud observations have been widely used for this purpose. However, the MODIS data quality varies greatly with the surface type, spectral region, cloud type, and time periods of study, which calls for additional caution when applying such data to studies on cloud cover temporal trends and variability. Using 15 years of cloud observations made by Terra and Aqua MODIS, we analyze the ΔTs-mediated cloud cover response for different cloud types by linearly regressing the monthly anomaly of cloud cover (ΔC) with the monthly anomaly of global Ts. The Collection 6 (C6) Aqua data exhibit a similar cloud response to the long-term counterpart simulated by advanced climate models. A robust increase in altitude with increasing ΔTs is found for high clouds, while a robust decrease of ΔC is noticed for optically thick low clouds. The large differences between C5 and C6 results are from improvements in calibration and cloud retrieval algorithms. The large positive cloud cover responses with data after 2010 and the strong sensitivity to time period obtained from the Terra (C5 and C6) data are likely due to calibration drift that has not been corrected, suggesting that the previous estimate of the short-term cloud cover response from the these data should be revisited.

Polar Amplification of Global Warming in Models Without Ice-Albedo Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexeev, V. A.; Langen, P. L.

2004-12-01

Non-ice-albedo feedback mechanisms leading to polar amplification, as reported by Alexeev (2003), are explored in three aquaplanet climate model systems of different complexity. We analyze this pattern using three different "ghost forcing" experiments (Hansen et al, 1997). In the first one we uniformly add 4W/m2 to the oceanic mixed layer in order to roughly simulate a 2xCO2 forcing at the surface. The second forcing, of the same magnitude, is applied only within the tropics and the third forcing is applied only polewards of 30 degrees (north and south). It turns out that our systems' equilibrium responses are linear with respect to these forcings. Surprisingly, the response to the tropical-only forcing is essentially non-local with quite significant warming at higher latitudes. The response to the high-latitude-only forcing is more local and has higher amplitude near the poles. Our explanation of the polar amplification obtained in the uniform forcing experiment is therefore two-fold. Firstly, the tropics are much more difficult to warm because of the higher sensitivity of the surface budget to SST changes at higher temperatures. Secondly, any extra heat deposited in the tropics is not easily radiated to outer space because of the high opaqueness of the tropical atmosphere. The energy, most of which is latent, needs to be redistributed by transports to the extra-tropics. Consequently, the tropical "ghost forcing" results in an essentially non-local response, while the extra-tropical one yields a more localized response, because the energy in the atmosphere cannot propagate effectively equator-wards from high latitudes. The paper deals with these mechanisms in three climate model systems with no ice-albedo feedbacks - an EBM and two different GCMs - one with cloud feedbacks and the other with cloud feedbacks excluded. References. Alexeev, V.A., (2003) Sensitivity to CO2 doubling of an atmospheric GCM coupled to an oceanic mixed layer: a linear analysis. Climate Dynamics, 20: p.775-787. Hansen, J., Sato M, and R. Ruedy, (1997) Radiative forcing and climate response, JGR, 102, No. D6, 6831-6864.

Understanding Differences Between Co-Incident CloudSat, Aqua/MODIS and NOAA18 MHS Ice water Path Retrievals Over the Tropical Oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pittman, Jasna; Robertson, Franklin; Blankenship, Clay

2008-01-01

Accurate measurement of the physical and radiative properties of clouds and their representation in climate models continues to be a challe nge. Model parameterizations are still subject to a large number of t unable parameters; furthermore, accurate and representative in situ o bservations are very sparse, and satellite observations historically have significant quantitative uncertainties, particularly with respect to particle size distribution (PSD) and cloud phase. Ice Water Path (IWP), or amount of ice present in a cloud column, is an important cl oud property to accurately quantify, because it is an integral measur e of the microphysical properties of clouds and the cloud feedback pr ocesses in the climate system. This paper investigates near co-incident retrievals of IWP over tropical oceans using three diverse measurem ent systems: radar from CloudSat, Vis/IR from Aqua/MODIS, and microwa ve from NOAA-18IMHS. CloudSat 94 GHz radar measurements provide high resolution vertical and along-orbit structure of cloud reflectivity a nd enable IWP (and IWC) retrievals. Overlapping MODIS measurements of cloud optical thickness and phase allow estimates of IWP when cloud tops are identified as being ice. Periodically, NOAA18 becomes co-inci dent in space I time to enable comparison of A-Train measurements to IWP inferred from the 157 and 89 GHz channel radiances. This latter m easurement is effective only for thick convective anvil systems. We s tratify these co-incident data (less than 4 minutes separation) into cirrus only, cirrus overlying liquid water clouds, and precipitating d eep convective clouds. Substantial biases in IWP and ice effective ra dius are found. Systematic differences in these retrievals are consid ered in light of the uncertainties in a priori assumptions ofPSDs, sp ectral sensitivity and algorithm strategies, which have a direct impact on the IWP product.

An Observationally-Based Evaluation of Cloud Ice and Liquid Water in CMIP3 and CMIP5 GCMs and Contemporary Reanalyses Using Contemporary Satellite Data (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J. F.; Waliser, D. E.; Chen, W.; Deng, M.; Lebsock, M. D.; Stephens, G. L.; Guan, B.; Christensen, M.; Teixeira, J.

2013-12-01

Representing clouds and cloud climate feedbacks in global climate models (GCMs) remains a pressing challenge to reduce and quantify uncertainties associated with climate change projection. Vertical structures of clouds simulated by present-day models have not been extensively examined using vertically-resolved cloud hydrometers such as cloud ice water (CIW) content and cloud liquid water (CLW) content. The gap in available observations for cloud mass was clearly evident from the wide disparity in the CIW path [Waliser et al., 2009] and CLW path [Li et al., 2008;2011] values exhibited in the CMIP3 GCMs. We present an observationally-based evaluation of the CIW and CLW of present-day GCMs, notably 20th century CMIP5 simulations, and compare these results to the CMIP3 and two recent reanalyses (ECMWF and MERRA). We use three different CloudSat+CALIPSO CIW products as well as three different observation CLW products, CloudSat, MODIS and AMSRE and their combined product for CLW with methods to remove the contribution from the convective core ice mass and/or precipitating cloud hydrometeors with variable sizes and falling speeds so that a robust observational estimate with uncertainty can be obtained for model evaluations. Note, considering the CloudSat's limitations of CLW retrievals due to contamination from the precipitation and from radar clutter near the surface, an alternative CLW is synergistically constructed using MODIS CLW and CloudSat CLW. The results show that for annual mean CIW path, there are factors of 2-10 in the differences between observations and models for a majority of the GCMs and for a number of regions. Based on a number of metrics, the ensemble behavior of CMIP5 has improved considerably relative to CMIP3 (~ 50%), although neither the CMIP5 ensemble mean nor any individual model performs particularly well, and there are still a number of models that exhibit very large biases despite the availability of relevant observations. For CLW, most of the CMIP3/CMIP5 annual mean CLW path values are overestimated by factors of 2-10 compared to observations globally. For the vertical structure of CIW/CLW content, significant systematic biases are found with many models biased significantly. Based on the Taylor diagram, the ensemble performance of CMIP5 CLW path simulation shows little or no improvement relative to CMIP3. The implications of these results on model representations of the earth radiation balance are discussed, along with caveats and uncertainties associated with the observational estimates, model and observation representations of the precipitating and cloudy ice components, relevant physical processes and parameterizations.

Supporting reputation based trust management enhancing security layer for cloud service models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karthiga, R.; Vanitha, M.; Sumaiya Thaseen, I.; Mangaiyarkarasi, R.

2017-11-01

In the existing system trust between cloud providers and consumers is inadequate to establish the service level agreement though the consumer’s response is good cause to assess the overall reliability of cloud services. Investigators recognized the significance of trust can be managed and security can be provided based on feedback collected from participant. In this work a face recognition system that helps to identify the user effectively. So we use an image comparison algorithm where the user face is captured during registration time and get stored in database. With that original image we compare it with the sample image that is already stored in database. If both the image get matched then the users are identified effectively. When the confidential data are subcontracted to the cloud, data holders will become worried about the confidentiality of their data in the cloud. Encrypting the data before subcontracting has been regarded as the important resources of keeping user data privacy beside the cloud server. So in order to keep the data secure we use an AES algorithm. Symmetric-key algorithms practice a shared key concept, keeping data secret requires keeping this key secret. So only the user with private key can decrypt data.

Economic Value of Narrowing the Uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity: Decadal Change in Shortwave Cloud Radiative Forcing and Low Cloud Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R. M.; Golub, A. A.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Young, D. F.; Baize, R. R.

2016-12-01

Several previous studies have been published on the economic value of narrowing the uncertainty in climate sensitivity (Cooke et al. 2015, Cooke et al. 2016, Hope, 2015). All three of these studies estimated roughly 10 Trillion U.S. dollars for the Net Present Value and Real Option Value at a discount rate of 3%. This discount rate is the nominal discount rate used in the U.S. Social Cost of Carbon Memo (2010). The Cooke et al studies approached this problem by examining advances in accuracy of global temperature measurements, while the Hope 2015 study did not address the type of observations required. While temperature change is related to climate sensitivity, large uncertainties of a factor of 3 in current anthropogenic radiative forcing (IPCC, 2013) would need to be solved for advanced decadal temperature change observations to assist the challenge of narrowing climate sensitivity. The present study takes a new approach by extending the Cooke et al. 2015,2016 papers to replace observations of temperature change to observations of decadal change in the effects of changing clouds on the Earths radiative energy balance, a measurement known as Cloud Radiative Forcing, or Cloud Radiative Effect. Decadal change in this observation is direclty related to the largest uncertainty in climate sensitivity which is cloud feedback from changing amount of low clouds, primarily low clouds over the world's oceans. As a result, decadal changes in shortwave cloud radiative forcing are more directly related to cloud feedback uncertainty which is the dominant uncertainty in climate sensitivity. This paper will show results for the new approach, and allow an examination of the sensitivity of economic value results to different observations used as a constraint on uncertainty in climate sensitivity. The analysis suggests roughly a doubling of economic value to 20 Trillion Net Present Value or Real Option Value at 3% discount rate. The higher economic value results from two changes: a larger increase in accuracy for SW cloud radiative forcing vs temperature, and from a lower confounding noise from natural variability in the cloud radiative forcing variable compared to temperature. In particular, global average temperature is much more sensitive to the climate noise of ENSO cycles.

Self-consistent atmosphere modeling with cloud formation for low-mass stars and exoplanets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juncher, Diana; Jørgensen, Uffe G.; Helling, Christiane

2017-12-01

Context. Low-mass stars and extrasolar planets have ultra-cool atmospheres where a rich chemistry occurs and clouds form. The increasing amount of spectroscopic observations for extrasolar planets requires self-consistent model atmosphere simulations to consistently include the formation processes that determine cloud formation and their feedback onto the atmosphere. Aims: Our aim is to complement the MARCS model atmosphere suit with simulations applicable to low-mass stars and exoplanets in preparation of E-ELT, JWST, PLATO and other upcoming facilities. Methods: The MARCS code calculates stellar atmosphere models, providing self-consistent solutions of the radiative transfer and the atmospheric structure and chemistry. We combine MARCS with a kinetic model that describes cloud formation in ultra-cool atmospheres (seed formation, growth/evaporation, gravitational settling, convective mixing, element depletion). Results: We present a small grid of self-consistently calculated atmosphere models for Teff = 2000-3000 K with solar initial abundances and log (g) = 4.5. Cloud formation in stellar and sub-stellar atmospheres appears for Teff < 2700 K and has a significant effect on the structure and the spectrum of the atmosphere for Teff < 2400 K. We have compared the synthetic spectra of our models with observed spectra and found that they fit the spectra of mid- to late-type M-dwarfs and early-type L-dwarfs well. The geometrical extension of the atmospheres (at τ = 1) changes with wavelength resulting in a flux variation of 10%. This translates into a change in geometrical extension of the atmosphere of about 50 km, which is the quantitative basis for exoplanetary transit spectroscopy. We also test DRIFT-MARCS for an example exoplanet and demonstrate that our simulations reproduce the Spitzer observations for WASP-19b rather well for Teff = 2600 K, log (g) = 3.2 and solar abundances. Our model points at an exoplanet with a deep cloud-free atmosphere with a substantial day-night energy transport and no temperature inversion.

An Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-flux (EDMF) closure for the unified representation of cloud and convective processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Z.; Schneider, T.; Teixeira, J.; Lam, R.; Pressel, K. G.

2014-12-01

Sub-grid scale (SGS) closures in current climate models are usually decomposed into several largely independent parameterization schemes for different cloud and convective processes, such as boundary layer turbulence, shallow convection, and deep convection. These separate parameterizations usually do not converge as the resolution is increased or as physical limits are taken. This makes it difficult to represent the interactions and smooth transition among different cloud and convective regimes. Here we present an eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) closure that represents all sub-grid scale turbulent, convective, and cloud processes in a unified parameterization scheme. The buoyant updrafts and precipitative downdrafts are parameterized with a prognostic multiple-plume mass-flux (MF) scheme. The prognostic term for the mass flux is kept so that the life cycles of convective plumes are better represented. The interaction between updrafts and downdrafts are parameterized with the buoyancy-sorting model. The turbulent mixing outside plumes is represented by eddy diffusion, in which eddy diffusivity (ED) is determined from a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) calculated from a TKE balance that couples the environment with updrafts and downdrafts. Similarly, tracer variances are decomposed consistently between updrafts, downdrafts and the environment. The closure is internally coupled with a probabilistic cloud scheme and a simple precipitation scheme. We have also developed a relatively simple two-stream radiative scheme that includes the longwave (LW) and shortwave (SW) effects of clouds, and the LW effect of water vapor. We have tested this closure in a single-column model for various regimes spanning stratocumulus, shallow cumulus, and deep convection. The model is also run towards statistical equilibrium with climatologically relevant large-scale forcings. These model tests are validated against large-eddy simulation (LES) with the same forcings. The comparison of results verifies the capacity of this closure to realistically represent different cloud and convective processes. Implementation of the closure in an idealized GCM allows us to study cloud feedbacks to climate change and to study the interactions between clouds, convections, and the large-scale circulation.

Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2

PubMed Central

Donohoe, Aaron; Armour, Kyle C.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Battisti, David S.

2014-01-01

In response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, high-end general circulation models (GCMs) simulate an accumulation of energy at the top of the atmosphere not through a reduction in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)—as one might expect from greenhouse gas forcing—but through an enhancement of net absorbed solar radiation (ASR). A simple linear radiative feedback framework is used to explain this counterintuitive behavior. It is found that the timescale over which OLR returns to its initial value after a CO2 perturbation depends sensitively on the magnitude of shortwave (SW) feedbacks. If SW feedbacks are sufficiently positive, OLR recovers within merely several decades, and any subsequent global energy accumulation is because of enhanced ASR only. In the GCM mean, this OLR recovery timescale is only 20 y because of robust SW water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks. However, a large spread in the net SW feedback across models (because of clouds) produces a range of OLR responses; in those few models with a weak SW feedback, OLR takes centuries to recover, and energy accumulation is dominated by reduced OLR. Observational constraints of radiative feedbacks—from satellite radiation and surface temperature data—suggest an OLR recovery timescale of decades or less, consistent with the majority of GCMs. Altogether, these results suggest that, although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce OLR, the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced ASR. PMID:25385628

THOR: A New Higher-Order Closure Assumed PDF Subgrid-Scale Parameterization; Evaluation and Application to Low Cloud Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firl, G. J.; Randall, D. A.

2013-12-01

The so-called "assumed probability density function (PDF)" approach to subgrid-scale (SGS) parameterization has shown to be a promising method for more accurately representing boundary layer cloudiness under a wide range of conditions. A new parameterization has been developed, named the Two-and-a-Half ORder closure (THOR), that combines this approach with a higher-order turbulence closure. THOR predicts the time evolution of the turbulence kinetic energy components, the variance of ice-liquid water potential temperature (θil) and total non-precipitating water mixing ratio (qt) and the covariance between the two, and the vertical fluxes of horizontal momentum, θil, and qt. Ten corresponding third-order moments in addition to the skewnesses of θil and qt are calculated using diagnostic functions assuming negligible time tendencies. The statistical moments are used to define a trivariate double Gaussian PDF among vertical velocity, θil, and qt. The first three statistical moments of each variable are used to estimate the two Gaussian plume means, variances, and weights. Unlike previous similar models, plume variances are not assumed to be equal or zero. Instead, they are parameterized using the idea that the less dominant Gaussian plume (typically representing the updraft-containing portion of a grid cell) has greater variance than the dominant plume (typically representing the "environmental" or slowly subsiding portion of a grid cell). Correlations among the three variables are calculated using the appropriate covariance moments, and both plume correlations are assumed to be equal. The diagnosed PDF in each grid cell is used to calculate SGS condensation, SGS fluxes of cloud water species, SGS buoyancy terms, and to inform other physical parameterizations about SGS variability. SGS condensation is extended from previous similar models to include condensation over both liquid and ice substrates, dependent on the grid cell temperature. Implementations have been included in THOR to drive existing microphysical and radiation parameterizations with samples drawn from the trivariate PDF. THOR has been tested in a single-column model framework using standardized test cases spanning a range of large-scale conditions conducive to both shallow cumulus and stratocumulus clouds and the transition between the two states. The results were compared to published LES intercomparison results using the same cases, and the gross characteristics of both cloudiness and boundary layer turbulence produced by THOR were within the range of results from the respective LES ensembles. In addition, THOR was used in a single-column model framework to study low cloud feedbacks in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Using initialization and forcings developed as part of the CGILS project, THOR was run at 8 points along a cross-section from the trade-wind cumulus region east of Hawaii to the coastal stratocumulus region off the coast of California for both the control climate and a climate perturbed by +2K SST. A neutral to weakly positive cloud feedback of 0-4 W m-2 K-1 was simulated along the cross-section. The physical mechanisms responsible appeared to be increased boundary layer entrainment and stratocumulus decoupling leading to reduced maximum cloud cover and liquid water path.

Making and Breaking Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Susanna

2017-10-01

Molecular clouds which youre likely familiar with from stunning popular astronomy imagery lead complicated, tumultuous lives. A recent study has now found that these features must be rapidly built and destroyed.Star-Forming CollapseA Hubble view of a molecular cloud, roughly two light-years long, that has broken off of the Carina Nebula. [NASA/ESA, N. Smith (University of California, Berkeley)/The Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA)]Molecular gas can be found throughout our galaxy in the form of eminently photogenic clouds (as featured throughout this post). Dense, cold molecular gas makes up more than 20% of the Milky Ways total gas mass, and gravitational instabilities within these clouds lead them to collapse under their own weight, resulting in the formation of our galaxys stars.How does this collapse occur? The simplest explanation is that the clouds simply collapse in free fall, with no source of support to counter their contraction. But if all the molecular gas we observe collapsed on free-fall timescales, star formation in our galaxy would churn a rate thats at least an order of magnitude higher than the observed 12 solar masses per year in the Milky Way.Destruction by FeedbackAstronomers have theorized that there may be some mechanism that supports these clouds against gravity, slowing their collapse. But both theoretical studies and observations of the clouds have ruled out most of these potential mechanisms, and mounting evidence supports the original interpretation that molecular clouds are simply gravitationally collapsing.A sub-mm image from ESOs APEX telescope of part of the Taurus molecular cloud, roughly ten light-years long, superimposed on a visible-light image of the region. [ESO/APEX (MPIfR/ESO/OSO)/A. Hacar et al./Digitized Sky Survey 2. Acknowledgment: Davide De Martin]If this is indeed the case, then one explanation for our low observed star formation rate could be that molecular clouds are rapidly destroyed by feedback from the very stars they create. But to match with observations, this wouldsuggest that molecular clouds are short-lived objects that are built (and therefore replenished) just as quickly as they are destroyed. Is this possible?Speedy Building?In a recent study, a team of scientists led by Mordecai-Mark Mac Low (American Museum of Natural History and Heidelberg University, Germany) explore whether there is a way to create molecular clouds rapidly enough to match the necessary rate of destruction.Mac Low and collaborators find that some common mechanisms used to explain the formation of molecular clouds like gas being swept up by supernovae cant quite operate quickly enough to combat the rate of cloud destruction. On the other hand, the Toomre gravitational instability,which is a large-scale gravitational instability that occurs in gas disks,can very rapidly assemble gas into clumps dense enough to form molecules.A composite of visible and near-infrared images from the VLT ANTU telescope of the Barnard 68 molecular cloud, roughly half a light-year in diameter. [ESO]A Rapid CycleBased on their findings, the authors argue that dense, star-forming molecular clouds persist only for a short time before collapsing into stars and then being blown apart by stellar feedback but these very clouds are built equally quickly via gravitational instabilities.Conveniently, this model has a very testable prediction: the Toomre instability is expected to become even stronger at higher redshift, which suggests that the fraction of gas in the form of molecules should increase at high redshifts. This appears to agree with observations, supporting the authors picture of a rapid cycle of cloud assembly and destruction.CitationMordecai-Mark Mac Low et al 2017 ApJL 847 L10. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/aa8a61

The violent interstellar medium in Milky-Way like disk galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karoline Walch, Stefanie

2015-08-01

Molecular clouds are cold, dense, and turbulent filamentary structures that condense out of the multi-phase interstellar medium. They are also the sites of star formation. The minority of new-born stars is massive, but these stars are particularly important for the fate of their parental molecular clouds as their feedback drives turbulence and regulates star formation.I will present results from the SILCC project (SImulating the Life Cycle of molecular Clouds), in which we study the formation and dispersal of molecular clouds within the multi-phase ISM using high-performance, three-dimensional simulations of representative pieces of disk galaxies. Apart from stellar feedback, self-gravity, an external stellar potential, and magnetic fields, we employ an accurate description of gas heating and cooling as well as a small chemical network including molecule formation and (self-)shielding from the interstellar radiation field. We study the impact of the supernova rate and the positioning of the supernova explosions with respect to the molecular gas in a well defined set of simulations. This allows us to draw conclusions on structure of the multi-phase ISM, the amount of molecular gas formed, and the onset of galactic outflows. Furthermore, we show how important stellar wind feedback is for regulating star formation in these disks.

Compression and ablation of the photo-irradiated molecular cloud the Orion Bar.

PubMed

Goicoechea, Javier R; Pety, Jérôme; Cuadrado, Sara; Cernicharo, José; Chapillon, Edwige; Fuente, Asunción; Gerin, Maryvonne; Joblin, Christine; Marcelino, Nuria; Pilleri, Paolo

2016-09-08

The Orion Bar is the archetypal edge-on molecular cloud surface illuminated by strong ultraviolet radiation from nearby massive stars. Our relative closeness to the Orion nebula (about 1,350 light years away from Earth) means that we can study the effects of stellar feedback on the parental cloud in detail. Visible-light observations of the Orion Bar show that the transition between the hot ionized gas and the warm neutral atomic gas (the ionization front) is spatially well separated from the transition between atomic and molecular gas (the dissociation front), by about 15 arcseconds or 6,200 astronomical units (one astronomical unit is the Earth-Sun distance). Static equilibrium models used to interpret previous far-infrared and radio observations of the neutral gas in the Orion Bar (typically at 10-20 arcsecond resolution) predict an inhomogeneous cloud structure comprised of dense clumps embedded in a lower-density extended gas component. Here we report one-arcsecond-resolution millimetre-wave images that allow us to resolve the molecular cloud surface. In contrast to stationary model predictions, there is no appreciable offset between the peak of the H 2 vibrational emission (delineating the H/H 2 transition) and the edge of the observed CO and HCO + emission. This implies that the H/H 2 and C + /C/CO transition zones are very close. We find a fragmented ridge of high-density substructures, photoablative gas flows and instabilities at the molecular cloud surface. The results suggest that the cloud edge has been compressed by a high-pressure wave that is moving into the molecular cloud, demonstrating that dynamical and non-equilibrium effects are important for the cloud evolution.

Compression and ablation of the photo-irradiated molecular cloud the Orion Bar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goicoechea, Javier R.; Pety, Jérôme; Cuadrado, Sara; Cernicharo, José; Chapillon, Edwige; Fuente, Asunción; Gerin, Maryvonne; Joblin, Christine; Marcelino, Nuria; Pilleri, Paolo

2016-09-01

The Orion Bar is the archetypal edge-on molecular cloud surface illuminated by strong ultraviolet radiation from nearby massive stars. Our relative closeness to the Orion nebula (about 1,350 light years away from Earth) means that we can study the effects of stellar feedback on the parental cloud in detail. Visible-light observations of the Orion Bar show that the transition between the hot ionized gas and the warm neutral atomic gas (the ionization front) is spatially well separated from the transition between atomic and molecular gas (the dissociation front), by about 15 arcseconds or 6,200 astronomical units (one astronomical unit is the Earth-Sun distance). Static equilibrium models used to interpret previous far-infrared and radio observations of the neutral gas in the Orion Bar (typically at 10-20 arcsecond resolution) predict an inhomogeneous cloud structure comprised of dense clumps embedded in a lower-density extended gas component. Here we report one-arcsecond-resolution millimetre-wave images that allow us to resolve the molecular cloud surface. In contrast to stationary model predictions, there is no appreciable offset between the peak of the H2 vibrational emission (delineating the H/H2 transition) and the edge of the observed CO and HCO+ emission. This implies that the H/H2 and C+/C/CO transition zones are very close. We find a fragmented ridge of high-density substructures, photoablative gas flows and instabilities at the molecular cloud surface. The results suggest that the cloud edge has been compressed by a high-pressure wave that is moving into the molecular cloud, demonstrating that dynamical and non-equilibrium effects are important for the cloud evolution.

Chaotic cold accretion on to black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaspari, M.; Ruszkowski, M.; Oh, S. Peng

2013-07-01

Bondi theory is often assumed to adequately describe the mode of accretion in astrophysical environments. However, the Bondi flow must be adiabatic, spherically symmetric, steady, unperturbed, with constant boundary conditions. Using 3D adaptive mesh refinement simulations, linking the 50 kpc to the sub-parsec (sub-pc) scales over the course of 40 Myr, we systematically relax the classic assumptions in a typical galaxy hosting a supermassive black hole. In the more realistic scenario, where the hot gas is cooling, while heated and stirred on large scales, the accretion rate is boosted up to two orders of magnitude compared with the Bondi prediction. The cause is the non-linear growth of thermal instabilities, leading to the condensation of cold clouds and filaments when tcool/tff ≲ 10. The clouds decouple from the hot gas, `raining' on to the centre. Subsonic turbulence of just over 100 km s-1 (M > 0.2) induces the formation of thermal instabilities, even in the absence of heating, while in the transonic regime turbulent dissipation inhibits their growth (tturb/tcool ≲ 1). When heating restores global thermodynamic balance, the formation of the multiphase medium is violent, and the mode of accretion is fully cold and chaotic. The recurrent collisions and tidal forces between clouds, filaments and the central clumpy torus promote angular momentum cancellation, hence boosting accretion. On sub-pc scales the clouds are channelled to the very centre via a funnel. In this study, we do not inject a fixed initial angular momentum, though vorticity is later seeded by turbulence. A good approximation to the accretion rate is the cooling rate, which can be used as subgrid model, physically reproducing the boost factor of 100 required by cosmological simulations, while accounting for the frequent fluctuations. Since our modelling is fairly general (turbulence/heating due to AGN feedback, galaxy motions, mergers, stellar evolution), chaotic cold accretion may be common in many systems, such as hot galactic haloes, groups and clusters. In this mode, the black hole can quickly react to the state of the entire host galaxy, leading to efficient self-regulated AGN feedback and the symbiotic Magorrian relation. Chaotic accretion can generate high-velocity clouds, likely leading to strong variations in the AGN luminosity, and the deflection or mass-loading of jets. During phases of overheating, the hot mode becomes the single channel of accretion, though strongly suppressed by turbulence. High-resolution data could determine the current mode of accretion: assuming quiescent feedback, the cold mode results in a quasi-flat-temperature core as opposed to the cuspy profile of the hot mode.

Simulation of seasonal cloud forcing anomalies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Randall, D.A.

1990-08-01

One useful way to classify clouds is according to the processes that generate them. There are three main cloud-formation agencies: deep convection; surface evaporation; large-scale lifting in the absence of conditional instability. Although traditionally clouds have been viewed as influencing the atmospheric general circulation primarily through the release of latent heat, the atmospheric science literature contains abundant evidence that, in reality, clouds influence the general circulation through four more or less equally important effects: interactions with the solar and terrestrial radiation fields; condensation and evaporation; precipitation; small-scale circulations within the atmosphere. The most advanced of the current generation of GCMsmore » include parameterizations of all four effects. Until recently there has been lingering skepticism, in the general circulation modeling community, that the radiative effects of clouds significantly influence the atmospheric general circulation. GCMs have provided the proof that the radiative effects of clouds are important for the general circulation of the atmosphere. An important concept in analysis of the effects of clouds on climate is the cloud radiative forcing (CRF), which is defined as the difference between the radiative flux which actually occurs in the presence of clouds, and that which would occur if the clouds were removed but the atmospheric state were otherwise unchanged. We also use the term CRF to denote warming or cooling tendencies due to cloud-radiation interactions. Cloud feedback is the change in CRF that accompanies a climate change. The present study concentrates on the planetary CRF and its response to external forcing, i.e. seasonal change.« less

Simulation of low clouds in the Southeast Pacific by the NCEP GFS: sensitivity to vertical mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, R.; Moorthi, S.; Xiao, H.; Mechoso, C. R.

2010-12-01

The NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model has an important systematic error shared by many other models: stratocumuli are missed over the subtropical eastern oceans. It is shown that this error can be alleviated in the GFS by introducing a consideration of the low-level inversion and making two modifications in the model's representation of vertical mixing. The modifications consist of (a) the elimination of background vertical diffusion above the inversion and (b) the incorporation of a stability parameter based on the cloud-top entrainment instability (CTEI) criterion, which limits the strength of shallow convective mixing across the inversion. A control simulation and three experiments are performed in order to examine both the individual and combined effects of modifications on the generation of the stratocumulus clouds. Individually, both modifications result in enhanced cloudiness in the Southeast Pacific (SEP) region, although the cloudiness is still low compared to the ISCCP climatology. If the modifications are applied together, however, the total cloudiness produced in the southeast Pacific has realistic values. This nonlinearity arises as the effects of both modifications reinforce each other in reducing the leakage of moisture across the inversion. Increased moisture trapped below the inversion than in the control run without modifications leads to an increase in cloud amount and cloud-top radiative cooling. Then a positive feedback due to enhanced turbulent mixing in the planetary boundary layer by cloud-top radiative cooling leads to and maintains the stratocumulus cover. Although the amount of total cloudiness obtained with both modifications has realistic values, the relative contributions of low, middle, and high layers tend to differ from the observations. These results demonstrate that it is possible to simulate realistic marine boundary clouds in large-scale models by implementing direct and physically based improvements in the model parameterizations.

Simulation of low clouds in the Southeast Pacific by the NCEP GFS: sensitivity to vertical mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, R.; Moorthi, S.; Xiao, H.; Mechoso, C.-R.

2010-08-01

The NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model has an important systematic error shared by many other models: stratocumuli are missed over the subtropical eastern oceans. It is shown that this error can be alleviated in the GFS by introducing a consideration of the low-level inversion and making two modifications in the model's representation of vertical mixing. The modifications consist of (a) the elimination of background vertical diffusion above the inversion and (b) the incorporation of a stability parameter based on the cloud-top entrainment instability (CTEI) criterion, which limits the strength of shallow convective mixing across the inversion. A control simulation and three experiments are performed in order to examine both the individual and combined effects of modifications on the generation of the stratocumulus clouds. Individually, both modifications result in enhanced cloudiness in the Southeast Pacific (SEP) region, although the cloudiness is still low compared to the ISCCP climatology. If the modifications are applied together, however, the total cloudiness produced in the southeast Pacific has realistic values. This nonlinearity arises as the effects of both modifications reinforce each other in reducing the leakage of moisture across the inversion. Increased moisture trapped below the inversion than in the control run without modifications leads to an increase in cloud amount and cloud-top radiative cooling. Then a positive feedback due to enhanced turbulent mixing in the planetary boundary layer by cloud-top radiative cooling leads to and maintains the stratocumulus cover. Although the amount of total cloudiness obtained with both modifications has realistic values, the relative contributions of low, middle, and high layers tend to differ from the observations. These results demonstrate that it is possible to simulate realistic marine boundary clouds in large-scale models by implementing direct and physically based improvements in the model parameterizations.

Glacial Inception in north-east Canada: The Role of Topography and Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birch, Leah; Tziperman, Eli; Cronin, Timothy

2016-04-01

Over the past 0.8 million years, ice ages have dominated Earth's climate on a 100 thousand year cycle. Interglacials were brief, sometimes lasting only a few thousand years, leading to the next inception. Currently, state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) are incapable of simulating the transition of Earth's climate from interglacial to glaciated. We hypothesize that this failure may be related to their coarse spatial resolution, which does not allow resolving the topography of inception areas, and their parameterized representation of clouds and atmospheric convection. To better understand the small scale topographic and cloud processes mis-represented by GCMs, we run the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), which is a regional, cloud-resolving atmospheric model capable of a realistic simulation of the regional mountain climate and therefore of surface ice and snow mass balance. We focus our study on the mountain glaciers of Canada's Baffin Island, where geologic evidence indicates the last inception occurred at 115kya. We examine the sensitivity of mountain glaciers to Milankovitch Forcing, topography, and meteorology, while observing impacts of a cloud resolving model. We first verify WRF's ability to simulate present day climate in the region surrounding the Penny Ice Cap, and then investigate how a GCM-like biased representation of topography affects sensitivity of this mountain glacier to Milankovitch forcing. Our results show the possibility of ice cap growth on an initially snow-free landscape with realistic topography and insolation values from the last glacial inception. Whereas, smoothed topography as seen in GCMs has a negative surface mass balance, even with the relevant orbital parameter configuration. We also explore the surface mass balance feedbacks from an initially ice-covered Baffin Island and discuss the role of clouds and convection.

Enhancement of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks on the Australian summer monsoon by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Notaro, Michael

2018-01-01

A regional climate modeling analysis of the Australian monsoon system reveals a substantial modulation of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), both of which operate at similar sub-seasonal time scales, as evidence that the intensity of land-atmosphere interactions is sensitive to the background atmospheric state. Based on ensemble experiments with imposed modification of northern Australian leaf area index (LAI), the atmospheric responses to LAI anomalies are composited for negative and positive modes of the propagating MJO. In the regional climate model (RCM), northern Australian vegetation feedbacks are characterized by evapotranspiration (ET)-driven rainfall responses, with the moisture feedback mechanism dominating over albedo and roughness feedback mechanisms. During November-April, both Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and RCM data reveal MJO's pronounced influence on rainfall patterns across northern Australia, tropical Indian Ocean, Timor Sea, Arafura Sea, and Gulf of Carpentaria, with the MJO dominating over vegetation feedbacks in terms of regulating monsoon rainfall variability. Convectively-active MJO phases support an enhancement of positive vegetation feedbacks on monsoon rainfall. While the MJO imposes minimal regulation of ET responses to LAI anomalies, the vegetation feedback-induced responses in precipitable water, cloud water, and rainfall are greatly enhanced during convectively-active MJO phases over northern Australia, which are characterized by intense low-level convergence and efficient precipitable water conversion. The sub-seasonal response of vegetation-rainfall feedback intensity to the MJO is complex, with significant enhancement of rainfall responses to LAI anomalies in February during convectively-active MJO phases compared to minimal modulation by the MJO during prior and subsequent calendar months.

The Atmosphere and Climate of Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bullock, M. A.; Grinspoon, D. H.

Venus lies just sunward of the inner edge of the Sun's habitable zone. Liquid water is not stable. Like Earth and Mars, Venus probably accreted at least an ocean's worth of water, although there are alternative scenarios. The loss of this water led to the massive, dry CO2 atmosphere, extensive H2SO4 clouds (at least some of the time), and an intense CO2 greenhouse effect. This chapter describes the current understanding of Venus' atmosphere, established from the data of dozens of spacecraft and atmospheric probe missions since 1962, and by telescopic observations since the nineteenth century. Theoretical work to model the temperature, chemistry, and circulation of Venus' atmosphere is largely based on analogous models developed in the Earth sciences. We discuss the data and modeling used to understand the temperature structure of the atmosphere, as well as its composition, cloud structure, and general circulation. We address what is known and theorized about the origin and early evolution of Venus' atmosphere. It is widely understood that Venus' dense CO2 atmosphere is the ultimate result of the loss of an ocean to space, but the timing of major transitions in Venus' climate is very poorly constrained by the available data. At present, the bright clouds allow only 20% of the sunlight to drive the energy balance and therefore determine conditions at Venus' surface. Like Earth and Mars, differential heating between the equator and poles drives the atmospheric circulation. Condensable species in the atmosphere create clouds and hazes that drive feedbacks that alter radiative forcing. Also in common with Earth and Mars, the loss of light, volatile elements to space produces long-term changes in composition and chemistry. As on Earth, geologic processes are most likely modifying the atmosphere and clouds by injecting gases from volcanos as well as directly through chemical reactions with the surface. The sensitivity of Venus' atmospheric energy balance is quantified in this chapter in terms of the initial forcing due to a perturbation, radiative response, and indirect responses, which are feedbacks — either positive or negative. When applied to one Venus climate model, we found that the albedo-radiative feedback is more important than greenhouse forcing for small changes in atmospheric H2O and SO2. An increase in these gases cools the planet by making the clouds brighter. On geologic timescales the reaction of some atmospheric species (SO2, CO, OCS, S, H2O, H2S, HCl, HF) with surface minerals could cause significant changes in atmospheric composition. Laboratory data and thermochemical modeling have been important for showing that atmospheric SO2 would be depleted in ~10 m.y. if carbonates are available at the surface. Without replenishment, the clouds would disappear. Alternatively, the oxidation of pyrite could add SO2 to the atmosphere while producing stable Fe oxides at the surface. The correlation of near-infrared high emissivity (dark) surface features with three young, large volcanos on Venus is strong evidence for recent volcanic activity at these sites, certainly over the timescale necessary to support the clouds. We address the nature of heterogeneous reactions with the surface and the implications for climate change on Venus. Chemical and mineralogical signatures of past climates must exist at the surface and below, so in situ experiments on the composition of surface layers are vital for reconstructing Venus' past climate. Many of the most Earth-like planets found around other stars will probably resemble Venus or a younger version of Venus. We finish the chapter with discussing what Venus can tell us about life in the universe, since it is an example of a planetary climate rendered uninhabitable. It also resembles our world's likely future. As with the climate history of Venus, however, the timing of predictable climate transitions on the Earth is poorly constrained by the data.

Suppression of ENSO in a coupled model without water vapor feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, A.; Manabe, S.

We examine 800-year time series of internally generated variability in both a coupled ocean-atmosphere model where water vapor anomalies are not allowed to interact with longwave radiation and one where they are. The ENSO-like phenomenon in the experiment without water vapor feedback is drastically suppressed both in amplitude and geographic extent relative to the experiment with water vapor feedback. Surprisingly, the reduced amplitude of ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies in the model without water vapor feedback cannot be attributed to greater longwave damping of sea surface temperature. (Differences between the two experiments in radiative feedback due to clouds counterbalance almost perfectly the differences in radiative feedback due to water vapor.) Rather, the interaction between water vapor anomalies and longwave radiation affects the ENSO-like phenomenon through its influence on the vertical structure of radiative heating: Because of the changes in water vapor associated with it, a given warm equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly is associated with a radiative heating profile that is much more gravitationally unstable when water vapor feedback is present. The warm sea surface temperature anomaly therefore results in more convection in the experiment with water vapor feedback. The increased convection, in turn, is related to a larger westerly wind-stress anomaly, which creates a larger decrease in upwelling of cold water, thereby enhancing the magnitude of the original warm sea surface temperature anomaly. In this manner, the interaction between water vapor anomalies and longwave radiation magnifies the air-sea interactions at the heart of the ENSO phenomenon; without this interaction, the coupling between sea surface temperature and wind stress is effectively reduced, resulting in smaller amplitude ENSO episodes with a more limited geographical extent.

Modeling the Influences of Aerosols on Pre-Monsoon Circulation and Rainfall over Southeast Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, D.; Sud, Y. C.; Oreopoulos, L.; Kim, K.-M.; Lau, W. K.; Kang, I.-S.

2014-01-01

We conduct several sets of simulations with a version of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5, (GEOS-5) Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) equipped with a two-moment cloud microphysical scheme to understand the role of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emissions in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the pre-monsoon period of February-May. Our experiments are designed so that both direct and indirect aerosol effects can be evaluated. For climatologically prescribed monthly sea surface temperatures, we conduct sets of model integrations with and without biomass burning emissions in the area of peak burning activity, and with direct aerosol radiative effects either active or inactive. Taking appropriate differences between AGCM experiment sets, we find that BBA affects liquid clouds in statistically significantly ways, increasing cloud droplet number concentrations, decreasing droplet effective radii (i.e., a classic aerosol indirect effect), and locally suppressing precipitation due to a deceleration of the autoconversion process, with the latter effect apparently also leading to cloud condensate increases. Geographical re-arrangements of precipitation patterns, with precipitation increases downwind of aerosol sources are also seen, most likely because of advection of weakly precipitating cloud fields. Somewhat unexpectedly, the change in cloud radiative effect (cloud forcing) at surface is in the direction of lesser cooling because of decreases in cloud fraction. Overall, however, because of direct radiative effect contributions, aerosols exert a net negative forcing at both the top of the atmosphere and, perhaps most importantly, the surface, where decreased evaporation triggers feedbacks that further reduce precipitation. Invoking the approximation that direct and indirect aerosol effects are additive, we estimate that the overall precipitation reduction is about 40% due to the direct effects of absorbing aerosols, which stabilize the atmosphere and reduce surface latent heat fluxes via cooler land surface temperatures. Further refinements of our two-moment cloud microphysics scheme are needed for a more complete examination of the role of aerosol-convection interactions in the seasonal development of the SEA monsoon.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCoy, Daniel T.; Hartmann, Dennis L.; Zelinka, Mark D.

Increasing optical depth poleward of 45° is a robust response to warming in global climate models. Much of this cloud optical depth increase has been hypothesized to be due to transitions from ice-dominated to liquid-dominated mixed-phase cloud. In this study, the importance of liquid-ice partitioning for the optical depth feedback is quantified for 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. All models show a monotonic partitioning of ice and liquid as a function of temperature, but the temperature at which ice and liquid are equally mixed (the glaciation temperature) varies by as much as 40 K across models. Modelsmore » that have a higher glaciation temperature are found to have a smaller climatological liquid water path (LWP) and condensed water path and experience a larger increase in LWP as the climate warms. The ice-liquid partitioning curve of each model may be used to calculate the response of LWP to warming. It is found that the repartitioning between ice and liquid in a warming climate contributes at least 20% to 80% of the increase in LWP as the climate warms, depending on model. Intermodel differences in the climatological partitioning between ice and liquid are estimated to contribute at least 20% to the intermodel spread in the high-latitude LWP response in the mixed-phase region poleward of 45°S. As a result, it is hypothesized that a more thorough evaluation and constraint of global climate model mixed-phase cloud parameterizations and validation of the total condensate and ice-liquid apportionment against observations will yield a substantial reduction in model uncertainty in the high-latitude cloud response to warming.« less

The Global Radiative Impact of the Sea-Ice-Albedo Feedback in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudson, S. R.

2009-12-01

The sea-ice-albedo feedback is known to be an important element of climatic changes over and near regions of ocean with ice cover. It is one of several feedbacks that lead to the polar enhancement of observed and projected global warming. Many studies in the past have used climate models to look at the regional and global impact of the albedo feedback on specific climate variables, most often temperature. These studies generally report a strong regional effect, but also some global effects due to the feedback. Recent changes in Arctic sea ice have led to increased reference to the importance of the sea-ice-albedo feedback, but few studies have examined the global impact of the feedback specifically associated with changes to sea ice in the Arctic; most have included changes to sea ice in both hemispheres, and in many cases, also to snow. That reduced sea ice cover will have a local warming effect is clear from modeling studies. On the other hand, given the relatively small area of the globe that is covered by Arctic sea ice, and the relatively small amounts of sunlight incident on these areas annually, it should be investigated how important reductions in sea ice are to the global solar radiation budget. In this study I present calculations of the global radiative impact of the reduction in Earth’s albedo resulting from reduced sea-ice cover in the Arctic. The intended result is a number, in W m-2, that represents the total increase in absorbed solar radiation due to the reduction in Arctic sea-ice cover, averaged over the globe and over the year. This number is relevant to assessing the long-term, global importance of the sea-ice-albedo feedback to climate change, and can help put it into context by allowing a comparison of this radiative forcing with other forcings, such as those due to CO2 increases and to aerosols, as given in Figure SPM.2 from the IPCC AR4 WG1. Rather than try to determine this forcing with a model, in which the assumptions and approximations are difficult to see and understand, I use representative datasets and calculate the effect with relatively simple math. The solar zenith angle is calculated as a function of latitude and time for an entire year, giving the top-of-atmosphere (ToA) incident flux; the ToA albedo, as a function of solar zenith angle, is taken from observations by CERES, for clear and cloudy skies over sea ice (cold and melting) and ocean; cloud cover data are taken from the cloud atlas of Warren and Hahn; monthly gridded sea ice concentrations from passive microwave data were downloaded from NSIDC and are interpolated to daily concentrations. The total energy absorbed in each grid cell is then calculated in a very straightforward way for 2.5-minute time steps throughout the year. This is done both with the mean ice concentration from 1979 to 1998, and then with various modified concentration fields, including realistic current and future fields, as well as a permanently ice-free Arctic. Clouds are left unchanged, though because of their importance, their effect is investigated. The details of the calculation, including assumptions and approximations will be presented, along with a range of results for current and future changes, as well as for an estimate on the upper bound: a global-annual mean of about 0.7 W m-2.

Investigating mixed phase clouds using a synergy of ground based remote sensing measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gierens, Rosa; Kneifel, Stefan; Löhnert, Ulrich

2017-04-01

Low level mixed phase clouds occur frequently in the Arctic, and can persist from hours to several days. However, the processes that lead to the commonality and persistence of these clouds are not well understood. The aim of our work is to get a more detailed understanding of the dynamics of and the processes in Arctic mixed phase clouds using a combination of instruments operating at the AWIPEV station in Svalbard. In addition, an aircraft campaign collecting in situ measurements inside mixed phase clouds above the station is planned for May-June 2017. The in situ data will be used for developing and validating retrievals for microphysical properties from Doppler cloud radar measurements. Once observational data for cloud properties is obtained, it can be used for evaluating model performance, for studies combining modeling and observational approaches, and eventually lead to developing model parameterizations of mixed phase microphysics. To describe the low-level mixed phase clouds, and the atmospheric conditions in which they occur, we present a case study of a persistent mixed phase cloud observed above the AWIPEV station. In the frame of the Arctic Amplification: Climate Relevant Atmospheric and Surface Processes and Feedback Mechanisms ((AC)3) -project, a millimeter wavelength cloud radar was installed at the site in June 2016. The high vertical (4 m in the lowest layer) and temporal (2.5 sec) resolution allows for a detailed description of the structure of the cloud. In addition to radar reflectivity and mean vertical velocity, we also utilize the higher moments of the Doppler spectra, such as skewness and kurtosis. To supplement the radar measurements, a ceilometer is used to detect liquid layers inside the cloud. Liquid water path and integrated water vapor are estimated using a microwave radiometer, which together with soundings can also provide temperature and humidity profiles in the lower troposphere. Moreover, a three-dimensional wind field is be obtained from a Doppler wind lidar. Furthermore, the Cloudnet scheme (www.cloud-net.org), that combines radar, lidar and microwave radiometer observations with a forecast model to provide a best estimate of cloud properties, is used for identifying mixed phase clouds. The continuous measurements carried out at AWIPEV make it possible to characterize the macro- and micro- physical properties of mixed-phase clouds on a long-term, statistical basis. The Arctic observations are compared to a 5-year observational data set from Jülich Observatory for Cloud Evolution (JOYCE) in Western Germany. The occurrence of different types of clouds (with focus on mixed-phase and super-cooled clouds), the distribution of ice and liquid within the clouds, the turbulent environment as well as the temperatures where the different phases are occurring are investigated.

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, J.-H.; Shie, C.-L.; Lau, W. K.-M.; Kakar, R.; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional scale model (with grid size of 20 km) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1 km grid size) are used to perform multi-day integration to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during SCSMEX Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, sea surface temperature (SST) variations, and cloud processes are performed to understand the precipitation processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. Cloud processes can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. The GCE-model results captured many observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the model simulated rainfall temporal variation compared quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall. The results show there are more latent heat fluxes prior to the onset of the monsoon. However, more rainfall was simulated after the onset of the monsoon. This modeling study indicates the latent heat fluxes (or evaporation) have more of an impact on precipitation processes and rainfall in the regional climate model simulations than in the cloud-resolving model simulations. Research is underway to determine if the difference in the grid sizes or the moist processes used in these two models is responsible for the differing influence of surface fluxes an precipitation processes.

Mesoscale Convective Systems in SCSMEX: Simulated by a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Lau, W.; Jia, Y.; Johnson, D.; Shie, C.-L.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation (RELACS) System is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes, in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water and energy cycles in Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, North America and South America. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model, PLACE allows for the effect A vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are included. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate the atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. RELACS has been used to simulate the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1986, 1991 and 1998. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences have been performed. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the South China Sea. CPSs can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. RELACS has also been used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during 1998. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. Also, the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model which allows for realistic moist processes as well as explicit interactions between cloud and radiation, and cloud and surface processes will be used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1998. The GCE model also includes the same PLACE and radiation scheme used in the RELACS. A detailed comparison between the results from the GCE model and RELACS will be performed.

Forming clusters within clusters: how 30 Doradus recollapsed and gave birth again

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahner, Daniel; Pellegrini, Eric W.; Glover, Simon C. O.; Klessen, Ralf S.

2018-01-01

The 30 Doradus nebula in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) contains the massive starburst cluster NGC 2070 with a massive and probably younger stellar sub clump at its centre: R136. It is not clear how such a massive inner cluster could form several million years after the older stars in NGC 2070, given that stellar feedback is usually thought to expel gas and inhibit further star formation. Using the recently developed 1D feedback scheme WARPFIELD to scan a large range of cloud and cluster properties, we show that an age offset of several million years between the stellar populations is in fact to be expected given the interplay between feedback and gravity in a giant molecular cloud with a density ≳500 cm-3 due to re-accretion of gas on to the older stellar population. Neither capture of field stars nor gas retention inside the cluster have to be invoked in order to explain the observed age offset in NGC 2070 as well as the structure of the interstellar medium around it.

A Model for the Onset of Self-gravitation and Star Formation in Molecular Gas Governed by Galactic Forces. I. Cloud-scale Gas Motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meidt, Sharon E.; Leroy, Adam K.; Rosolowsky, Erik; Kruijssen, J. M. Diederik; Schinnerer, Eva; Schruba, Andreas; Pety, Jerome; Blanc, Guillermo; Bigiel, Frank; Chevance, Melanie; Hughes, Annie; Querejeta, Miguel; Usero, Antonio

2018-02-01

Modern extragalactic molecular gas surveys now reach the scales of star-forming giant molecular clouds (GMCs; 20–50 pc). Systematic variations in GMC properties with galaxy environment imply that clouds are not universally self-gravitating objects, decoupled from their surroundings. Here we re-examine the coupling of clouds to their environment and develop a model for 3D gas motions generated by forces arising with the galaxy gravitational potential defined by the background disk of stars and dark matter. We show that these motions can resemble or even exceed the motions needed to support gas against its own self-gravity throughout typical galactic disks. The importance of the galactic potential in spiral arms and galactic centers suggests that the response to self-gravity does not always dominate the motions of gas at GMC scales, with implications for observed gas kinematics, virial equilibrium, and cloud morphology. We describe how a uniform treatment of gas motions in the plane and in the vertical direction synthesizes the two main mechanisms proposed to regulate star formation: vertical pressure equilibrium and shear/Coriolis forces as parameterized by Toomre Q ≈ 1. As the modeled motions are coherent and continually driven by the external potential, they represent support for the gas that is distinct from that conventionally attributed to turbulence, which decays rapidly and thus requires maintenance, e.g., via feedback from star formation. Thus, our model suggests that the galaxy itself can impose an important limit on star formation, as we explore in a second paper in this series.

Optical fibre multi-parameter sensing with secure cloud based signal capture and processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newe, Thomas; O'Connell, Eoin; Meere, Damien; Yuan, Hongwei; Leen, Gabriel; O'Keeffe, Sinead; Lewis, Elfed

2016-05-01

Recent advancements in cloud computing technologies in the context of optical and optical fibre based systems are reported. The proliferation of real time and multi-channel based sensor systems represents significant growth in data volume. This coupled with a growing need for security presents many challenges and presents a huge opportunity for an evolutionary step in the widespread application of these sensing technologies. A tiered infrastructural system approach is adopted that is designed to facilitate the delivery of Optical Fibre-based "SENsing as a Service- SENaaS". Within this infrastructure, novel optical sensing platforms, deployed within different environments, are interfaced with a Cloud-based backbone infrastructure which facilitates the secure collection, storage and analysis of real-time data. Feedback systems, which harness this data to affect a change within the monitored location/environment/condition, are also discussed. The cloud based system presented here can also be used with chemical and physical sensors that require real-time data analysis, processing and feedback.

Radiative transfer calculations of the diffuse ionized gas in disc galaxies with cosmic ray feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandenbroucke, Bert; Wood, Kenneth; Girichidis, Philipp; Hill, Alex S.; Peters, Thomas

2018-05-01

The large vertical scale heights of the diffuse ionized gas (DIG) in disc galaxies are challenging to model, as hydrodynamical models including only thermal feedback seem to be unable to support gas at these heights. In this paper, we use a three-dimensional Monte Carlo radiation transfer code to post-process disc simulations of the Simulating the Life-Cycle of Molecular Clouds project that include feedback by cosmic rays. We show that the more extended discs in simulations including cosmic ray feedback naturally lead to larger scale heights for the DIG which are more in line with observed scale heights. We also show that including a fiducial cosmic ray heating term in our model can help to increase the temperature as a function of disc scale height, but fails to reproduce observed DIG nitrogen and sulphur forbidden line intensities. We show that, to reproduce these line emissions, we require a heating mechanism that affects gas over a larger density range than is achieved by cosmic ray heating, which can be achieved by fine tuning the total luminosity of ionizing sources to get an appropriate ionizing spectrum as a function of scale height. This result sheds a new light on the relation between forbidden line emissions and temperature profiles for realistic DIG gas distributions.

Smoke Invigoration Versus Inhibition of Clouds over the Amazon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koren, Ilan; Martins, J. Vanderlei; Lorraine, A. Remer; Afargan, Hila

2008-01-01

The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on clouds is one of the most important and least understood aspects of human-induced climate change. Small changes in the amount of cloud coverage can produce a climate forcing equivalent in magnitude and opposite in sign to that caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and changes in cloud height can shift the effect of clouds from cooling to warming. Focusing on the Amazon, we show a smooth transition between two opposing effects of aerosols on clouds: the microphysical and the radiative. We show how a feedback between the optical properties of aerosols and the cloud fraction can modify the aerosol forcing, changing the total radiative energy and redistributing it over the atmospheric column.

An energy balance model exploration of the impacts of interactions between surface albedo, cloud cover and water vapor on polar amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Södergren, A. Helena; McDonald, Adrian J.; Bodeker, Gregory E.

2017-11-01

We examine the effects of non-linear interactions between surface albedo, water vapor and cloud cover (referred to as climate variables) on amplified warming of the polar regions, using a new energy balance model. Our simulations show that the sum of the contributions to surface temperature changes due to any variable considered in isolation is smaller than the temperature changes from coupled feedback simulations. This non-linearity is strongest when all three climate variables are allowed to interact. Surface albedo appears to be the strongest driver of this non-linear behavior, followed by water vapor and clouds. This is because increases in longwave radiation absorbed by the surface, related to increases in water vapor and clouds, and increases in surface absorbed shortwave radiation caused by a decrease in surface albedo, amplify each other. Furthermore, our results corroborate previous findings that while increases in cloud cover and water vapor, along with the greenhouse effect itself, warm the polar regions, water vapor also significantly warms equatorial regions, which reduces polar amplification. Changes in surface albedo drive large changes in absorption of incoming shortwave radiation, thereby enhancing surface warming. Unlike high latitudes, surface albedo change at low latitudes are more constrained. Interactions between surface albedo, water vapor and clouds drive larger increases in temperatures in the polar regions compared to low latitudes. This is in spite of the fact that, due to a forcing, cloud cover increases at high latitudes and decreases in low latitudes, and that water vapor significantly enhances warming at low latitudes.

Role of Longwave Cloud-Radiation Feedback in the Simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Daehyun; Ahn, Min-Seop; Kang, In-Sik; Del Genio, Anthony D.

2015-01-01

The role of the cloud-radiation interaction in the simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is investigated. A special focus is on the enhancement of column-integrated diabatic heating due to the greenhouse effects of clouds and moisture in the region of anomalous convection. The degree of this enhancement, the greenhouse enhancement factor (GEF), is measured at different precipitation anomaly regimes as the negative ratio of anomalous outgoing longwave radiation to anomalous precipitation. Observations show that the GEF varies significantly with precipitation anomaly and with the MJO cycle. The greenhouse enhancement is greater in weak precipitation anomaly regimes and its effectiveness decreases monotonically with increasing precipitation anomaly. The GEF also amplifies locally when convection is strengthened in association with the MJO, especially in the weak precipitation anomaly regime (less than 5 mm day(exp -1)). A robust statistical relationship is found among CMIP5 climate model simulations between the GEF and the MJO simulation fidelity. Models that simulate a stronger MJO also simulate a greater GEF, especially in the weak precipitation anomaly regime (less than 5 mm day(exp -1)). Models with a greater GEF in the strong precipitation anomaly regime (greater than 30 mm day(-1)) represent a slightly slower MJO propagation speed. Many models that lack the MJO underestimate the GEF in general and in particular in the weak precipitation anomaly regime. The results herein highlight that the cloud-radiation interaction is a crucial process for climate models to correctly represent the MJO.

A study of aerosol indirect effects and feedbacks on convective precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Da Silva, Nicolas; Mailler, Sylvain; Drobinski, Philippe

2017-04-01

Atmospheric aerosols from natural and anthropogenic origin are present in the troposphere of the Mediterranean basin and continental Europe, occasionnally reaching very high concentrations in air masses with a strong content of aerosols related to mineral dust emissions, wildfires, or anthropogenic contamination [1]. On the other hand precipitations in the Mediterranean basin need to be understood precisely since drought and extreme precipitation events are a part of Mediterranean climate which can strongly affect the people and the economic activity in the Mediterranean basin [2]. The present study is a contribution to the investigations on the effects of aerosols on precipitation in the Mediterranean basin and continental Europe. For that purpose, we used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) parameterized with the Thompson aerosol-aware microphysics schemes, performing two sensitivity simulations forced with two different aerosol climatologies during six months covering an entire summer season on a domain, covering the Mediterranean basin and continental Europe at 50 km resolution. Aerosols may affect atmospheric dynamics through their direct and semidirect radiative effects as well as through their indirect effects (through the changes of cloud microphysics). While it is difficult to disentangle these differents effects in reality, numerical modelling with the WRF model make it possible to isolate indirect effects by modifying them without affecting the direct or semidirect effects of aerosols in an attempt to examine the effect of aerosols on precipitations through microphysical effects only. Our first results have shown two opposite responses depending whether the precipitation are convective or large-scale. Since convective precipitations seem to be clearly inhibited by increased concentrations of cloud-condensation nuclei, we attempted to understand which processes and feedbacks are involved in this reduction of parameterized convective precipitations when the concentrations of cloud-condensation nuclei are increased. We diagnosed a complex feedback chain beginning from the reduction of mean droplet radii, yielding an increase of atmospheric stability and also lowering the humidity available in the planetary boundary layer for the formation of convective clouds and precipitations. These results suggest that the microphysical effect of aerosols may contribute to a reduction of convective precipitation mostly through modifications in thermodynamic vertical profiles. References [1] G. Rea, S. Turquety, L. Menut, R. Briant, S. Mailler, and G. Siour. Source contributions to 2012 summertime aerosols in the euro-mediterranean region. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15(14):8013-8036, 2015. [2] F. Giorgi. Climate change hot-spots. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(8): L08707, 2006.

Validation of VIIRS Cloud Base Heights at Night Using Ground and Satellite Measurements over Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

NOH, Y. J.; Miller, S. D.; Seaman, C.; Forsythe, J. M.; Brummer, R.; Lindsey, D. T.; Walther, A.; Heidinger, A. K.; Li, Y.

2016-12-01

Knowledge of Cloud Base Height (CBH) is critical to describing cloud radiative feedbacks in numerical models and is of practical significance to aviation communities. We have developed a new CBH algorithm constrained by Cloud Top Height (CTH) and Cloud Water Path (CWP) by performing a statistical analysis of A-Train satellite data. It includes an extinction-based method for thin cirrus. In the algorithm, cloud geometric thickness is derived with upstream CTH and CWP input and subtracted from CTH to generate the topmost layer CBH. The CBH information is a key parameter for an improved Cloud Cover/Layers product. The algorithm has been applied to the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi NPP spacecraft. Nighttime cloud optical properties for CWP are retrieved from the nighttime lunar cloud optical and microphysical properties (NLCOMP) algorithm based on a lunar reflectance model for the VIIRS Day/Night Band (DNB) measuring nighttime visible light such as moonlight. The DNB has innovative capabilities to fill the polar winter and nighttime gap of cloud observations which has been an important shortfall from conventional radiometers. The CBH products have been intensively evaluated against CloudSat data. The results showed the new algorithm yields significantly improved performance over the original VIIRS CBH algorithm. However, since CloudSat is now operational during daytime only due to a battery anomaly, the nighttime performance has not been fully assessed. This presentation will show our approach to assess the performance of the CBH algorithm at night. VIIRS CBHs are retrieved over the Alaska region from October 2015 to April 2016 using the Clouds from AVHRR Extended (CLAVR-x) processing system. Ground-based measurements from ceilometer and micropulse lidar at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site on the North Slope of Alaska are used for the analysis. Local weather conditions are checked using temperature and precipitation observations at the site. CALIPSO data with near-simultaneous colocation are added for multi-layered cloud cases which may have high clouds aloft beyond the ground measurements. Multi-month statistics of performance and case studies will be shown. Additional efforts for algorithm refinements will be also discussed.

Effects of Implementing Subgrid-Scale Cloud-Radiation Interactions in a Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herwehe, J. A.; Alapaty, K.; Otte, T.; Nolte, C. G.

2012-12-01

Interactions between atmospheric radiation, clouds, and aerosols are the most important processes that determine the climate and its variability. In regional scale models, when used at relatively coarse spatial resolutions (e.g., larger than 1 km), convective cumulus clouds need to be parameterized as subgrid-scale clouds. Like many groups, our regional climate modeling group at the EPA uses the Weather Research & Forecasting model (WRF) as a regional climate model (RCM). One of the findings from our RCM studies is that the summertime convective systems simulated by the WRF model are highly energetic, leading to excessive surface precipitation. We also found that the WRF model does not consider the interactions between convective clouds and radiation, thereby omitting an important process that drives the climate. Thus, the subgrid-scale cloudiness associated with convective clouds (from shallow cumuli to thunderstorms) does not exist and radiation passes through the atmosphere nearly unimpeded, potentially leading to overly energetic convection. This also has implications for air quality modeling systems that are dependent upon cloud properties from the WRF model, as the failure to account for subgrid-scale cloudiness can lead to problems such as the underrepresentation of aqueous chemistry processes within clouds and the overprediction of ozone from overactive photolysis. In an effort to advance the climate science of the cloud-aerosol-radiation (CAR) interactions in RCM systems, as a first step we have focused on linking the cumulus clouds with the radiation processes. To this end, our research group has implemented into WRF's Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterization a cloudiness formulation that is widely used in global earth system models (e.g., CESM/CAM5). Estimated grid-scale cloudiness and associated condensate are adjusted to account for the subgrid clouds and then passed to WRF's Rapid Radiative Transfer Model - Global (RRTMG) radiation schemes to affect the shortwave and longwave radiative processes. To evaluate the effects of implementing the subgrid-scale cloud-radiation interactions on WRF regional climate simulations, a three-year study period (1988-1990) was simulated over the CONUS using two-way nested domains with 108 km and 36 km horizontal grid spacing, without and with the cumulus feedbacks to radiation, and without and with some form of four dimensional data assimilation (FDDA). Initial and lateral boundary conditions (as well as data for the FDDA, when enabled) were supplied from downscaled NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis II (R2) data sets. Evaluation of the simulation results will be presented comparing regional surface precipitation and temperature statistics with North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data, respectively, as well as comparison with available surface radiation (SURFRAD) and satellite (CERES) observations. This research supports improvements in the EPA's WRF-CMAQ modeling system, leading to better predictions of present and future air quality and climate interactions in order to protect human health and the environment.

Human amplification of drought-driven fire in tropical regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosca, Michael

2015-04-01

The change in globally-measured radiative forcing from the pre-industrial to the present due to interactions between aerosol particles and cloud cover has the largest uncertainty of all anthropogenic factors. Uncertainties are largest in the tropics, where total cloud amount and incoming solar radiation are highest, and where 50% of all aerosol emissions originate from anthropogenic fire. It is well understood that interactions between smoke particles and cloud droplets modify cloud cover , which in turn affects climate, however, few studies have observed the temporal nature of aerosol-cloud interactions without the use of a model. Here we apply a novel approach to measure the effect of fire aerosols on convective clouds in tropical regions (Brazil, Africa and Indonesia) through a combination of remote sensing and meteorological data. We attribute a reduction in cloud fraction during periods of high aerosol optical depths to a smoke-driven inhibition of convection. We find that higher smoke burdens limit vertical updrafts, increase surface pressure, and increase low- level divergence-meteorological indicators of convective suppression. These results are corroborated by climate model simulations that show a smoke-driven increase in regionally averaged shortwave tropospheric heating and boundary layer stratification, and a decrease in vertical velocity and precipitation during the fire season (December-February). We then quantify the human response to decreased cloud cover using a combination of socioeconomic and climate data Our results suggest that, in tropical regions, anthropogenic fire initiates a positive feedback loop where increased aerosol emissions limit convection, dry the surface and enable increased fire activity via human ignition. This result has far-reaching implications for fire management and climate policy in emerging countries along the equator that utilize fire.

Relationships between lower tropospheric stability, low cloud cover, and water vapor isotopic composition in the subtropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galewsky, J.

2017-12-01

Understanding the processes that govern the relationships between lower tropospheric stability and low-cloud cover is crucial for improved constraints on low-cloud feedbacks and for improving the parameterizations of low-cloud cover used in climate models. The stable isotopic composition of atmospheric water vapor is a sensitive recorder of the balance of moistening and drying processes that set the humidity of the lower troposphere and may thus provide a useful framework for improving our understanding low-cloud processes. In-situ measurements of water vapor isotopic composition collected at the NOAA Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, along with twice-daily soundings from Hilo and remote sensing of cloud cover, show a clear inverse relationship between the estimated inversion strength (EIS) and the mixing ratios and water vapor δ -values, and a positive relationship between EIS, deuterium excess, and Δ δ D, defined as the difference between an observation and a reference Rayleigh distillation curve. These relationships are consistent with reduced moistening and an enhanced upper-tropospheric contribution above the trade inversion under high EIS conditions and stronger moistening under weaker EIS conditions. The cloud fraction, cloud liquid water path, and cloud-top pressure were all found to be higher under low EIS conditions. Inverse modeling of the isotopic data for the highest and lowest terciles of EIS conditions provide quantitative constraints on the cold-point temperatures and mixing fractions that govern the humidity above the trade inversion. The modeling shows the moistening fraction between moist boundary layer air and dry middle tropospheric air 24±1.5% under low EIS conditions is and 6±1.5% under high EIS conditions. A cold-point (last-saturation) temperature of -30C can match the observations for both low and high EIS conditions. The isotopic composition of the moistening source as derived from the inversion (-114±10‰ ) requires moderate fractionation from a pure marine source, indicating a link between inversion strength and moistening of the lower troposphere from the outflow of shallow convection. This approach can be applied in other settings and the results can be used to test parameterizations in climate models.

CLouds, and Aerosols Radiative Impacts and Forcing: Year 2016 (CLARIFY-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haywood, J. M.; Bellouin, N.; Carslaw, K. S.; Coe, H.; Field, P.; Highwood, E. J.; Redemann, J.; Stier, P.; Wood, R.; Zuidema, P.

2013-12-01

Strongly absorbing biomass burning aerosols (BBAs) exist above highly reflectant stratocumulus clouds in the SE Atlantic with implications on the direct (e.g. Haywood et al., 2003), semi-direct (e.g. Johnson et al., 2006), and indirect effect of aerosols, implications on the remote sensing of cloud optical properties, development of clouds and feedback processes. Here, we present an analysis of modelled estimates of the direct effect using twelve models from the AEROCOM project (Myhre et al., 2013) to show that estimates of the direct effect in SE Atlantic range from strongly negative to strongly positive. Furthermore, we evaluate the performance of the HadGEM2 model and show it cannot replicate the extreme values of positive forcing inferred from high spectral resolution satellite retrievals. By examining patterns of deposition, we infer that the indirect effect from biomass burning aerosols is very limited in the model, but without detailed measurements we are unsure of the validity of this inference. We conclude that the SE Atlantic is therefore of key importance in determining the radiative forcing of biomass burning aerosols and provides a very stringent test for global climate models as they need to accurately represent the geographic distribution of the aerosol optical depth, the wavelength dependent aerosol single scattering albedo, the vertical profile of the aerosol, the geographic distribution of the cloud, the cloud fraction, the cloud liquid water content, the cloud droplet effective radii, and the vertical profile of the cloud. These results are used as scientific rationale to justify a new measurement campaign: CLouds and Aerosol Radiative Impacts and Forcing: Year-2016 (CLARIFY-2016). Haywood, J.M., Osborne, S.R. Francis, P.N., Keil, A., Formenti, P., Andreae, M.O., and Kaye, P.H., The mean physical and optical properties of regional haze dominated by biomass burning aerosol measured from the C-130 aircraft during SAFARI 2000, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D13), 8473, doi:10.1029/2002JD002226, 2003. Johnson, B.T., K.P. Shine, and P.M. Forster, The semi-direct aerosol effect: Impact of absorbing aerosols on marine stratocumulus, QJRMS, DOI: 10.1256/qj.03.61, 2006. Myhre, G. et al. Radiative forcing of the direct aerosol effect from AeroCom Phase II simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1853-1877, doi:10.5194/acp-13-1853-2013, 2013

Experience of the JPL Exploratory Data Analysis Team at validating HIRS2/MSU cloud parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahn, Ralph; Haskins, Robert D.; Granger-Gallegos, Stephanie; Pursch, Andrew; Delgenio, Anthony

1992-01-01

Validation of the HIRS2/MSU cloud parameters began with the cloud/climate feedback problem. The derived effective cloud amount is less sensitive to surface temperature for higher clouds. This occurs because as the cloud elevation increases, the difference between surface temperature and cloud temperature increases, so only a small change in cloud amount is needed to effect a large change in radiance at the detector. By validating the cloud parameters it is meant 'developing a quantitative sense for the physical meaning of the measured parameters', by: (1) identifying the assumptions involved in deriving parameters from the measured radiances, (2) testing the input data and derived parameters for statistical error, sensitivity, and internal consistency, and (3) comparing with similar parameters obtained from other sources using other techniques.

Comparison of Ice Cloud Particle Sizes Retrieved From Satellite Data Derived From In Situ Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, Qingyuan; Rossow, William B.; Chou, Joyce; Welch, Ronald M.

1997-01-01

Cloud microphysical parameterizations have attracted a great deal of attention in recent years due to their effect on cloud radiative properties and cloud-related hydrological processes in large-scale models. The parameterization of cirrus particle size has been demonstrated as an indispensable component in the climate feedback analysis. Therefore, global-scale, long-term observations of cirrus particle sizes are required both as a basis of and as a validation of parameterizations for climate models. While there is a global scale, long-term survey of water cloud droplet sizes (Han et al. 1994), there is no comparable study for cirrus ice crystals. In this paper a near-global survey of cirrus ice crystal sizes is conducted using ISCCP satellite data analysis. The retrieval scheme uses phase functions based upon hexagonal crystals calculated by a ray tracing technique. The results show that global mean values of D(e) are about 60 micro-m. This study also investigates the possible reasons for the significant difference between satellite retrieved effective radii (approx. 60 micro-m) and aircraft measured particle sizes (approx. 200 micro-m) during the FIRE I IFO experiment. They are (1) vertical inhomogeneity of cirrus particle sizes; (2) lower limit of the instrument used in aircraft measurements; (3) different definitions of effective particle sizes; and (4) possible inappropriate phase functions used in satellite retrieval.

Combined observational and modeling efforts of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions over Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loftus, Adrian; Tsay, Si-Chee; Nguyen, Xuan Anh

2016-04-01

Low-level stratocumulus (Sc) clouds cover more of the Earth's surface than any other cloud type rendering them critical for Earth's energy balance, primarily via reflection of solar radiation, as well as their role in the global hydrological cycle. Stratocumuli are particularly sensitive to changes in aerosol loading on both microphysical and macrophysical scales, yet the complex feedbacks involved in aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions remain poorly understood. Moreover, research on these clouds has largely been confined to marine environments, with far fewer studies over land where major sources of anthropogenic aerosols exist. The aerosol burden over Southeast Asia (SEA) in boreal spring, attributed to biomass burning (BB), exhibits highly consistent spatiotemporal distribution patterns, with major variability due to changes in aerosol loading mediated by processes ranging from large-scale climate factors to diurnal meteorological events. Downwind from source regions, the transported BB aerosols often overlap with low-level Sc cloud decks associated with the development of the region's pre-monsoon system, providing a unique, natural laboratory for further exploring their complex micro- and macro-scale relationships. Compared to other locations worldwide, studies of springtime biomass-burning aerosols and the predominately Sc cloud systems over SEA and their ensuing interactions are underrepresented in scientific literature. Measurements of aerosol and cloud properties, whether ground-based or from satellites, generally lack information on microphysical processes; thus cloud-resolving models are often employed to simulate the underlying physical processes in aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud model has recently been enhanced with a triple-moment (3M) bulk microphysics scheme as well as the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) version 6 aerosol module. Because the aerosol burden not only affects cloud droplet size and number concentration, but also the spectral width of the cloud droplet size distribution, the 3M scheme is well suited to simulate aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions within a three-dimensional regional cloud model. Moreover, the additional variability predicted on the hydrometeor distributions provides beneficial input for forward models to link the simulated microphysical processes with observations as well as to assess both ground-based and satellite retrieval methods. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the 7 South East Asian Studies / Biomass-burning Aerosols and Stratocumulus Environment: Lifecycles and Interactions Experiment (7-SEAS/BASELInE) operations during the spring of 2013. Preliminary analyses of pre-monsoon Sc system lifecycles observed during the first-ever deployment of a ground-based cloud radar to northern Vietnam will be also be presented. Initial results from GCE model simulations of these Sc using double-moment and the new 3M bulk microphysics schemes under various aerosol loadings will be used to showcase the 3M scheme as well as provide insight into how the impact of aerosols on cloud and precipitation processes in stratocumulus over land may manifest themselves in simulated remote-sensing signals. Applications and future work involving ongoing 7-SEAS campaigns aimed at improving our understanding of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions of will also be discussed.

Process-oriented Observational Metrics for CMIP6 Climate Model Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, J. H.; Su, H.

2016-12-01

Observational metrics based on satellite observations have been developed and effectively applied during post-CMIP5 model evaluation and improvement projects. As new physics and parameterizations continue to be included in models for the upcoming CMIP6, it is important to continue objective comparisons between observations and model results. This talk will summarize the process-oriented observational metrics and methodologies for constraining climate models with A-Train satellite observations and support CMIP6 model assessments. We target parameters and processes related to atmospheric clouds and water vapor, which are critically important for Earth's radiative budget, climate feedbacks, and water and energy cycles, and thus reduce uncertainties in climate models.

Aerosol-cloud feedbacks in a turbulent environment: Laboratory measurements representative of conditions in boundary layer clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantrell, W. H.; Chandrakar, K. K.; Karki, S.; Kinney, G.; Shaw, R.

2017-12-01

Many of the climate impacts of boundary layer clouds are modulated by aerosol particles. As two examples, their interactions with incoming solar and upwelling terrestrial radiation and their propensity for precipitation are both governed by the population of aerosol particles upon which the cloud droplets formed. In turn, clouds are the primary removal mechanism for aerosol particles smaller than a few micrometers and larger than a few nanometers. Aspects of these interconnected phenomena are known in exquisite detail (e.g. Köhler theory), but other parts have not been as amenable to study in the laboratory (e.g. scavenging of aerosol particles by cloud droplets). As a complicating factor, boundary layer clouds are ubiquitously turbulent, which introduces fluctuations in the water vapor concentration and temperature, which govern the saturation ratio which mediates aerosol-cloud interactions. We have performed laboratory measurements of aerosol-cloud coupling and feedbacks, using Michigan Tech's Pi Chamber (Chang et al., 2016). In conditions representative of boundary layer clouds, our data suggest that the lifetime of most interstitial particles in the accumulation mode is governed by cloud activation - particles are removed from the Pi Chamber when they activate and settle out of the chamber as cloud droplets. As cloud droplets are removed, these interstitial particles activate until the initially polluted cloud cleans itself and all particulates are removed from the chamber. At that point, the cloud collapses. Our data also indicate that smaller particles, Dp < ˜ 20 nm are not activated, but are instead removed through diffusion, enhanced by the fact that droplets are moving relative to the suspended aerosol. I will discuss results from both warm (i.e. liquid water only) and mixed phase clouds, showing that cloud and aerosol properties are coupled through fluctuations in the supersaturation, and that threshold behaviors can be defined through the use of the Dämkohler number, the ratio of the characteristic turbulence timescale to the cloud's microphysical response time. Chang, K., et al., 2016. A laboratory facility to study gas-aerosol-cloud interactions in a turbulent environment: The Π Chamber. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00203.1

Landscape fires dominate terrestrial natural aerosol - climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, C.; Arnold, S.; Monks, S. A.; Asmi, A.; Paasonen, P.; Spracklen, D. V.

2017-12-01

The terrestrial biosphere is an important source of natural aerosol including landscape fire emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formed from biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Atmospheric aerosol alters the Earth's climate by absorbing and scattering radiation (direct radiative effect; DRE) and by perturbing the properties of clouds (aerosol indirect effect; AIE). Natural aerosol sources are strongly controlled by, and can influence, climate; giving rise to potential natural aerosol-climate feedbacks. Earth System Models (ESMs) include a description of some of these natural aerosol-climate feedbacks, predicting substantial changes in natural aerosol over the coming century with associated radiative perturbations. Despite this, the sensitivity of natural aerosols simulated by ESMs to changes in climate or emissions has not been robustly tested against observations. Here we combine long-term observations of aerosol number and a global aerosol microphysics model to assess terrestrial natural aerosol-climate feedbacks. We find a strong positive relationship between the summertime anomaly in observed concentration of particles greater than 100 nm diameter and the anomaly in local air temperature. This relationship is reproduced by the model and driven by variability in dynamics and meteorology, as well as natural sources of aerosol. We use an offline radiative transfer model to determine radiative effects due to changes in two natural aerosol sources: landscape fire and biogenic SOA. We find that interannual variability in the simulated global natural aerosol radiative effect (RE) is negatively related to the global temperature anomaly. The magnitude of global aerosol-climate feedback (sum of DRE and AIE) is estimated to be -0.15 Wm-2 K-1 for landscape fire aerosol and -0.06 Wm-2 K-1 for biogenic SOA. These feedbacks are comparable in magnitude, but opposite in sign to the snow albedo feedback, highlighting the need for natural aerosol feedbacks to be included in climate simulations.

Missing iris effect as a possible cause of muted hydrological change and high climate sensitivity in models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, T.; Stevens, B. B.

2015-12-01

Current climate models exhibit equilibrium climate sensitivities to a doubling of CO2 of 2.0-4.6 K and a weak increase of global mean precipitation. But inferences from the observational record place climate sensitivity near the lower end of the range, and indicate that models underestimate changes in certain aspects of the hydrological cycle under warming. Here we show that both these discrepancies can be explained by a controversial hypothesis of missing negative tropical feedbacks in climate models, known as the iris-effect: Expanding dry and clear regions in a warming climate yield a negative feedback as more infrared radiation can escape to space through this metaphorical opening iris. At the same time the additional infrared cooling of the atmosphere must be balanced by latent heat release thereby accelerating the hydrological cycle. Alternative suggestions of too little aerosol cooling, missing volcanic eruptions, or insufficient ocean heat uptake in models may explain a slow observed transient warming, but are not able to explain the observed enhanced hydrological cycle. We propose that a temperature-dependency of the extent to which precipitating convective clouds cluster or aggregate into larger clouds constitutes a plausible physical mechanism for the iris-effect. On a large scale, organized convective states are dryer than disorganized convection and therefore radiate more in the longwave to space. Thus, if a warmer atmosphere can host more organized convection, then this represents one possible mechanism for an iris-effect. The challenges in modeling, understanding and possibly quantifying a temperature-dependency of convection are, however, substantial.

Dense CO in Mrk 71-A: Superwind Suppressed in a Young Super Star Cluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oey, M. S.; Herrera, C. N.; Silich, Sergiy; Reiter, Megan; James, Bethan L.; Jaskot, A. E.; Micheva, Genoveva

2017-11-01

We report the detection of CO(J=2-1) coincident with the super star cluster (SSC) Mrk 71-A in the nearby Green Pea analog galaxy, NGC 2366. Our observations with the Northern Extended Millimeter Array reveal a compact, ˜7 pc, molecular cloud whose mass ({10}5 {M}⊙ ) is similar to that of the SSC, consistent with a high star formation efficiency, on the order of 0.5. There are two spatially distinct components separated by 11 {km} {{{s}}}-1. If expanding, these could be due to momentum-driven stellar wind feedback. Alternatively, we may be seeing remnants of the infalling, colliding clouds responsible for triggering the SSC formation. The kinematics are also consistent with a virialized system. These extreme, high-density, star-forming conditions inhibit energy-driven feedback; the co-spatial existence of a massive, molecular cloud with the SSC supports this scenario, and we quantitatively confirm that any wind-driven feedback in Mrk 71-A is momentum-driven, rather than energy-driven. Since Mrk 71-A is a candidate Lyman continuum emitter, this implies that energy-driven superwinds may not be a necessary condition for the escape of ionizing radiation. In addition, the detection of nebular continuum emission yields an accurate astrometric position for the Mrk 71-A. We also detect four other massive molecular clouds in this giant star-forming complex.

Use of Field Observations for Understanding Controls of Polar Low Cloud Microphysical Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFarquhar, G. M.

2016-12-01

Although arctic clouds have a net warming effect on the Arctic surface, their radiative effect is sensitive to cloud microphysical properties, namely the sizes, phases and shapes of cloud particles. Such cloud properties are influenced by the numbers, compositions and sizes of aerosols, meteorological conditions, and surface characteristics. Uncertainty in representing cloud-aerosol interactions in varying environmental conditions and associated feedbacks is a major cause in our lack of understanding of why the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the Earth. Here, the understanding of cloud-aerosol interactions gained from past arctic field experiments is reviewed. Such studies have characterized the structure of single-layer mixed phase clouds that are ubiquitous in the Arctic and investigated different aerosol indirect effect mechanisms acting in these clouds. But, it is still unknown what controls the amount of supercooled water in arctic clouds (especially in complex frequently occurring multi-layer clouds), how probability distributions of cloud properties and radiative heating and their subsequent impact on temperature profiles and underlying snow and sea ice cover vary with aerosol loading and composition in different surface and meteorological conditions, how the composition and concentration of arctic aerosols and cloud microphysical properties vary annually and interannually, and how cloud-aerosol-radiative interactions can be better represented in models with varying temporal and spatial scales. These needs can be addressed in two ways. First, there is a need for comprehensive and routine aircraft, UAV and tethered balloon measurements in the presence of ground, air or space-based remote sensors over a variety of surface and meteorological conditions. Second, planned observational campaigns (the Measurements of Aerosols Radiation and Clouds over the Southern Oceans MARCUS and the Southern Oceans Cloud Radiation Transport Experimental Study SOCRATES) should provide cloud, aerosol, radiative and precipitation observations over the pristine and continually cloudy Southern Oceans that are remote from natural and continental anthropogenic aerosol sources should provide a process-oriented understanding of cloud-aerosol interactions in liquid and ice clouds.

Hemispheric symmetry of the Earth's Energy Balance as a fundamental constraint on the Earth's climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, G. L.; Webster, P. J.; OBrien, D. M.

2013-12-01

We currently lack a quantitative understanding of how the Earth's energy balance and the poleward energy transport adjust to different forcings that determine climate change. Currently, there are no constraints that guide this understanding. We will demonstrate that the Earth's energy balance exhibits a remarkable symmetry about the equator, and that this symmetry is a necessary condition of a steady state climate. Our analysis points to clouds as the principal agent that highly regulates this symmetry and sets the steady state. The existence of this thermodynamic steady-state constraint on climate and the symmetry required to sustain it leads to important inferences about the synchronous nature of climate changes between hemispheres, offering for example insights on mechanisms that can sustain global ice ages forced by asymmetric hemispheric solar radiation variations or how climate may respond to increases in greenhouse gas concentration. Further inferences regarding cloud effects on climate can also be deduced without resorting to the complex and intricate processes of cloud formation, whose representation continues to challenge the climate modeling community. The constraint suggests cloud feedbacks must be negative buffering the system against change. We will show that this constraint doesn't exist in the current CMIP5 model experiments and the lack of such a constraint suggests there is insufficient buffering in models in response to external forcings

Impacts of aerosol-cloud interactions on past and future changes in tropospheric composition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Unger, N.; Menon, S.; Shindell, D. T.

2009-02-02

The development of effective emissions control policies that are beneficial to both climate and air quality requires a detailed understanding of all the feedbacks in the atmospheric composition and climate system. We perform sensitivity studies with a global atmospheric composition-climate model to assess the impact of aerosols on tropospheric chemistry through their modification on clouds, aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). The model includes coupling between both tropospheric gas-phase and aerosol chemistry and aerosols and liquid-phase clouds. We investigate past impacts from preindustrial (PI) to present day (PD) and future impacts from PD to 2050 (for the moderate IPCC A1B scenario) that embracemore » a wide spectrum of precursor emission changes and consequential ACI. The aerosol indirect effect (AIE) is estimated to be -2.0 Wm{sup -2} for PD-PI and -0.6 Wm{sup -2} for 2050-PD, at the high end of current estimates. Inclusion of ACI substantially impacts changes in global mean methane lifetime across both time periods, enhancing the past and future increases by 10% and 30%, respectively. In regions where pollution emissions increase, inclusion of ACI leads to 20% enhancements in in-cloud sulfate production and {approx}10% enhancements in sulfate wet deposition that is displaced away from the immediate source regions. The enhanced in-cloud sulfate formation leads to larger increases in surface sulfate across polluted regions ({approx}10-30%). Nitric acid wet deposition is dampened by 15-20% across the industrialized regions due to ACI allowing additional re-release of reactive nitrogen that contributes to 1-2 ppbv increases in surface ozone in outflow regions. Our model findings indicate that ACI must be considered in studies of methane trends and projections of future changes to particulate matter air quality.« less

Blowing in the Milky Way Wind: Neutral Hydrogen Clouds Tracing the Galactic Nuclear Outflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Teodoro, Enrico M.; McClure-Griffiths, N. M.; Lockman, Felix J.; Denbo, Sara R.; Endsley, Ryan; Ford, H. Alyson; Harrington, Kevin

2018-03-01

We present the results of a new sensitive survey of neutral hydrogen above and below the Galactic Center with the Green Bank Telescope. The observations extend up to Galactic latitude | b| < 10^\\circ with an effective angular resolution of 9.‧5 and an average rms brightness temperature noise of 40 mK in a 1 {km} {{{s}}}-1 channel. The survey reveals the existence of a population of anomalous high-velocity clouds extending up to heights of about 1.5 kpc from the Galactic plane and showing no signature of Galactic rotation. These clouds have local standard of rest velocities | {V}LSR}| ≲ 360 {km} {{{s}}}-1, and assuming a Galactic Center origin, they have sizes of a few tens of parsec and neutral hydrogen masses spanning 10{--}{10}5 {M}ȯ . Accounting for selection effects, the cloud population is symmetric in longitude, latitude, and V LSR. We model the cloud kinematics in terms of an outflow expanding from the Galactic Center and find the population consistent with being material moving with radial velocity {V}{{w}}≃ 330 {km} {{{s}}}-1 distributed throughout a bicone with opening angle α > 140^\\circ . This simple model implies an outflow luminosity {L}{{w}}> 3× {10}40 erg s‑1 over the past 10 Myr, consistent with star formation feedback in the inner region of the Milky Way, with a cold gas mass-loss rate ≲ 0.1 {{M}ȯ {yr}}-1. These clouds may represent the cold gas component accelerated in the nuclear wind driven by our Galaxy, although some of the derived properties challenge current theoretical models of the entrainment process.

SnowCloud - a Framework to Predict Streamflow in Snowmelt-dominated Watersheds Using Cloud-based Computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sproles, E. A.; Crumley, R. L.; Nolin, A. W.; Mar, E.; Lopez-Moreno, J. J.

2017-12-01

Streamflow in snowy mountain regions is extraordinarily challenging to forecast, and prediction efforts are hampered by the lack of timely snow data—particularly in data sparse regions. SnowCloud is a prototype web-based framework that integrates remote sensing, cloud computing, interactive mapping tools, and a hydrologic model to offer a new paradigm for delivering key data to water resource managers. We tested the skill of SnowCloud to forecast monthly streamflow with one month lead time in three snow-dominated headwaters. These watersheds represent a range of precipitation/runoff schemes: the Río Elqui in northern Chile (200 mm/yr, entirely snowmelt); the John Day River, Oregon, USA (635 mm/yr, primarily snowmelt); and the Río Aragon in the northern Spain (850 mm/yr, snowmelt dominated). Model skill corresponded to snowpack contribution with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.86, 0.52, and 0.21 respectively. SnowCloud does not require the user to possess advanced programming skills or proprietary software. We access NASA's MOD10A1 snow cover product to calculate the snow metrics globally using Google Earth Engine's geospatial analysis and cloud computing service. The analytics and forecast tools are provided through a web-based portal that requires only internet access and minimal training. To test the efficacy of SnowCloud we provided the tools and a series of tutorials in English and Spanish to water resource managers in Chile, Spain, and the United States. Participants assessed their user experience and provided feedback, and the results of our multi-cultural assessment are also presented. While our results focus on SnowCloud, they outline methods to develop cloud-based tools that function effectively across cultures and languages. Our approach also addresses the primary challenges of science-based computing; human resource limitations, infrastructure costs, and expensive proprietary software. These challenges are particularly problematic in developing countries.

Ice formation in altocumulus clouds over Leipzig: Remote sensing measurements and detailed model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmel, Martin; Bühl, Johannes; Ansmann, Albert; Tegen, Ina

2014-05-01

Over Leipzig, altocumulus clouds are frequently observed using a suite of remote sensing instruments. These observations cover a wide range of heights, temperatures, and microphysical properties of the clouds ranging from purely liquid to heavily frozen. For the current study, two cases were chosen to test the sensitivity of these clouds with respect to several microphysical and dynamical parameters such as aerosol properties (CCN, IN), ice particle shape as well as turbulence. The mixed-phase spectral microphysical model SPECS was coupled to a dynamical model of the Asai-Kasahara type resulting in the model system AK-SPECS. The relatively simple dynamics allows for a fine vertical resolution needed for the rather shallow cloud layers observed. Additionally, the proper description of hydrometeor sedimentation is important especially for the fast growing ice crystals to realistically capture their interaction with the vapour and liquid phase (Bergeron-Findeisen process). Since the focus is on the cloud microphysics, the dynamics in terms of vertical velocity profile is prescribed for the model runs and the feedback of the microphysics on dynamics by release or consumption of latent heat due to phase transfer is not taken into account. The microphysics focuses on (1) ice particle shape allowing hexagonal plates and columns with size-dependant axis ratios and (2) the ice nuclei (IN) budget realized with a prognostic temperature resolved field of potential IN allowing immersion freezing only when active IN and supercooled drops above a certain size threshold are present within a grid cell. Sensitivity studies show for both cases that ice particle shape seems to have the major influence on ice mass formation under otherwise identical conditions. This is due to the effect (1) on terminal fall velocity of the individual ice particle allowing for longer presence times in conditions supersaturated with respect to ice and (2) on water vapour deposition which is enhanced due to increased capacitance because of deviation from the spherical shape.

Why do global climate models struggle to represent low-level clouds in the West African summer monsoon?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knippertz, Peter; Hannak, Lisa; Fink, Andreas H.; Kniffka, Anke; Pante, Gregor

2017-04-01

Climate models struggle to realistically represent the West African monsoon (WAM), which hinders reliable future projections and the development of adequate adaption measures. Low-level clouds over southern West Africa (5-10°N, 8°W-8°E) during July-September are an integral part of the WAM through their effect on the surface energy balance and precipitation, but their representation in climate models has so far received little attention. These clouds usually form during the night near the level of the nocturnal low-level jet ( 950 hPa), thicken and spread until the mid-morning ( 09 UTC), and then break up and rise in the course of the day, typically to about 850 hPa. The low thermal contrast to the surface and the frequent presence of obscuring higher-level clouds make detection of the low-level clouds from space rather challenging. Here we use 30 years of output from 18 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) as well as 20 years of output from 8 models participating in the Year of Tropical Convection (YoTC) experiments to identify cloud biases and their causes. A great advantage of the YoTC dataset is the 6-hourly output frequency, which allows an analysis of the diurnal cycle, and the availability of temperature and moisture tendencies from parameterized processes such as convection, radiation and boundary-layer turbulence. A comparison to earlier analyses based on CMIP3 output reveals rather limited improvements with regard to the represenation of low-level cloud and winds. Compared to ERA-Interim re-analyses, which shows satisfactory agreement with surface observations, many of the CMIP5 and YoTC models still have large biases in low-level cloudiness of both signs and a tendency to too high elevation and too weak diurnal cycles. At the same time, these models tend to have too strong low-level jets, the impact of which is unclear due to concomitant effects on temperature and moisture advection as well as turbulent mixing. Part of the differences between the models and ERA-Interim appear to be related to the different subgrid cloud schemes used. While nighttime tendencies in temperature and humidity are broadly realistic in most models, daytime tendencies show large variation in the vertical transport of heat and moisture. Many models simulate too low near-surface relative humidities, leading to insufficient low cloud cover, abundant solar radiation, and thus a too large diurnal cycle in temperature and relative humidity. Currently, targeted model sensitivity experiments are conducted to test possible feedback mechanisms between low clouds, radiation, boundary-layer dynamics, precipitation and the WAM circulation in the framework of the EU-funded DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa) project (http://www.dacciwa.eu).

Unveiling aerosol-cloud interactions - Part 2: Minimising the effects of aerosol swelling and wet scavenging in ECHAM6-HAM2 for comparison to satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neubauer, David; Christensen, Matthew W.; Poulsen, Caroline A.; Lohmann, Ulrike

2017-11-01

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) are uncertain and the estimates of the ACI effective radiative forcing (ERFaci) magnitude show a large variability. Within the Aerosol_cci project the susceptibility of cloud properties to changes in aerosol properties is derived from the high-resolution AATSR (Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer) data set using the Cloud-Aerosol Pairing Algorithm (CAPA) (as described in our companion paper) and compared to susceptibilities from the global aerosol climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 and MODIS-CERES (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer - Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) data. For ECHAM6-HAM2 the dry aerosol is analysed to mimic the effect of CAPA. Furthermore the analysis is done for different environmental regimes. The aerosol-liquid water path relationship in ECHAM6-HAM2 is systematically stronger than in AATSR-CAPA data and cannot be explained by an overestimation of autoconversion when using diagnostic precipitation but rather by aerosol swelling in regions where humidity is high and clouds are present. When aerosol water is removed from the analysis in ECHAM6-HAM2 the strength of the susceptibilities of liquid water path, cloud droplet number concentration and cloud albedo as well as ERFaci agree much better with those of AATSR-CAPA or MODIS-CERES. When comparing satellite-derived to model-derived susceptibilities, this study finds it more appropriate to use dry aerosol in the computation of model susceptibilities. We further find that the statistical relationships inferred from different satellite sensors (AATSR-CAPA vs. MODIS-CERES) as well as from ECHAM6-HAM2 are not always of the same sign for the tested environmental conditions. In particular the susceptibility of the liquid water path is negative in non-raining scenes for MODIS-CERES but positive for AATSR-CAPA and ECHAM6-HAM2. Feedback processes like cloud-top entrainment that are missing or not well represented in the model are therefore not well constrained by satellite observations. In addition to aerosol swelling, wet scavenging and aerosol processing have an impact on liquid water path, cloud albedo and cloud droplet number susceptibilities. Aerosol processing leads to negative liquid water path susceptibilities to changes in aerosol index (AI) in ECHAM6-HAM2, likely due to aerosol-size changes by aerosol processing. Our results indicate that for statistical analysis of aerosol-cloud interactions the unwanted effects of aerosol swelling, wet scavenging and aerosol processing need to be minimised when computing susceptibilities of cloud variables to changes in aerosol.

Analysis of the polar amplification pattern of global warming on an aquaplanet in "ghost forcing" experiments with no ice-albedo feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexeev, V. A.; Langen, P. L.

2004-05-01

Non-ice-albedo feedback mechanisms leading to polar amplification, as reported by Alexeev (2003), are explored in three aquaplanet climate model systems of different complexity. We analyze this pattern using three different "ghost forcing" experiments (Hansen et al, 1997). In the first one we uniformly add 4W/m2 to the oceanic mixed layer in order to roughly simulate a 2xCO2 forcing at the surface. The second forcing, of the same magnitude, is applied only within the tropics and the third forcing is applied only polewards of 30 degrees (north and south). It turns out that our systems' equilibrium responses are linear with respect to these forcings. Surprisingly, the response to the tropical-only forcing is essentially non-local with quite significant warming at higher latitudes. The response to the high-latitude-only forcing is more local and has higher amplitude near the poles. Our explanation of the polar amplification obtained in the uniform forcing experiment is therefore two-fold. Firstly, the tropics are much more difficult to warm because of the higher sensitivity of the surface budget to SST changes at higher temperatures. Secondly, any extra heat deposited in the tropics is not easily radiated to outer space because of the high opaqueness of the tropical atmosphere. The energy, most of which is latent, needs to be redistributed by transports to the extra-tropics. Consequently, the tropical "ghost forcing" results in an essentially non-local response, while the extra-tropical one yields a more localized response, because the energy in the atmosphere cannot propagate effectively equator-wards from high latitudes. The paper deals with these mechanisms in three climate model systems with no ice-albedo feedback - an EBM and two different GCMs - one with cloud feedbacks and the other with cloud feedbacks excluded. References. Alexeev, V.A., (2003) Sensitivity to CO2 doubling of an atmospheric GCM coupled to an oceanic mixed layer: a linear analysis. Climate Dynamics, 20: p.775-787. Hansen, J., Sato M, and R. Ruedy, (1997) Radiative forcing and climate response, JGR, 102, No. D6, 6831-6864.

Design, Evaluation and GCM-Performance of a New Parameterization for Microphysics of Clouds with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert Scheme (McRas)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.

1998-01-01

A prognostic cloud scheme named McRAS (Microphysics of clouds with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert Scheme) was developed with the aim of improving cloud-microphysics, and cloud-radiation interactions in GCMs. McRAS distinguishes convective, stratiform, and boundary-layer clouds. The convective clouds merge into stratiform clouds on an hourly time-scale, while the boundary-layer clouds do so instantly. The cloud condensate transforms into precipitation following the auto-conversion relations of Sundqvist that contain a parametric adaptation for the Bergeron-Findeisen process of ice crystal growth and collection of cloud condensate by precipitation. All clouds convect, advect, and diffuse both horizontally and vertically with a fully active cloud-microphysics throughout its life-cycle, while the optical properties of clouds are derived from the statistical distribution of hydrometeors and idealized cloud geometry. An evaluation of McRAS in a single column model (SCM) with the GATE Phase III data has shown that McRAS can simulate the observed temperature, humidity, and precipitation without discernible systematic errors. An evaluation with the ARM-CART SCM data in a cloud model intercomparison exercise shows reasonable but not an outstanding accurate simulation. Such a discrepancy is common to almost all models and is related, in part, to the input data quality. McRAS was implemented in the GEOS II GCM. A 50 month integration that was initialized with the ECMWF analysis of observations for January 1, 1987 and forced with the observed sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice distribution and vegetation properties (biomes, and soils), with prognostic soil moisture, snow-cover, and hydrology showed a very realistic simulation of cloud process, incloud water and ice, and cloud-radiative forcing (CRF). The simulated ITCZ showed a realistic time-mean structure and seasonal cycle, while the simulated CRF showed sensitivity to vertical distribution of cloud water which can be easily altered by the choice of time constant and incloud critical cloud water amount regulators for auto-conversion. The CRF and its feedbacks also have a profound effect on the ITCZ. Even though somewhat weaker than observed, the McRAS-GCM simulation produces robust 30-60 day oscillations in the 200 hPa velocity potential. Two ensembles of 4-summer (July, August, September) simulations, one each for 1987 and 1988 show that the McRAS-GCM simulates realistic and statistically significant precipitation differences over India, Central America, and tropical Africa. Several seasonal simulations were performed with McRAS-GEOS II GCM for the summer (June-July- August) and winter (December-January-February) periods to determine how the simulated clouds and CRFs would be affected by: i) advection of clouds; ii) cloud top entrainment instability, iii) cloud water inhomogeneity correction, and (iv) cloud production and dissipation in different cloud-processes. The results show that each of these processes contributes to the simulated cloud-fraction and CRF.

Observed and modeled patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the structure of the trade-wind layer

DOE PAGES

Nuijens, Louise; Medeiros, Brian; Sandu, Irina; ...

2015-11-06

We present patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the trade-wind boundary layer structure using long-term measurements at a site representative of dynamical regimes with moderate subsidence or weak ascent. We compare these with ECMWF’s Integrated Forecast System and 10 CMIP5 models. By using single-time step output at a single location, we find that models can produce a fairly realistic trade-wind layer structure in long-term means, but with unrealistic variability at shorter-time scales. The unrealistic variability in modeled cloudiness near the lifting condensation level (LCL) is due to stronger than observed relationships with mixed-layer relative humidity (RH) and temperature stratificationmore » at the mixed-layer top. Those relationships are weak in observations, or even of opposite sign, which can be explained by a negative feedback of convection on cloudiness. Cloudiness near cumulus tops at the tradewind inversion instead varies more pronouncedly in observations on monthly time scales, whereby larger cloudiness relates to larger surface winds and stronger trade-wind inversions. However, these parameters appear to be a prerequisite, rather than strong controlling factors on cloudiness, because they do not explain submonthly variations in cloudiness. Models underestimate the strength of these relationships and diverge in particular in their responses to large-scale vertical motion. No model stands out by reproducing the observed behavior in all respects. As a result, these findings suggest that climate models do not realistically represent the physical processes that underlie the coupling between trade-wind clouds and their environments in present-day climate, which is relevant for how we interpret modeled cloud feedbacks.« less

Observed and modeled patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the structure of the trade-wind layer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nuijens, Louise; Medeiros, Brian; Sandu, Irina

We present patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the trade-wind boundary layer structure using long-term measurements at a site representative of dynamical regimes with moderate subsidence or weak ascent. We compare these with ECMWF’s Integrated Forecast System and 10 CMIP5 models. By using single-time step output at a single location, we find that models can produce a fairly realistic trade-wind layer structure in long-term means, but with unrealistic variability at shorter-time scales. The unrealistic variability in modeled cloudiness near the lifting condensation level (LCL) is due to stronger than observed relationships with mixed-layer relative humidity (RH) and temperature stratificationmore » at the mixed-layer top. Those relationships are weak in observations, or even of opposite sign, which can be explained by a negative feedback of convection on cloudiness. Cloudiness near cumulus tops at the tradewind inversion instead varies more pronouncedly in observations on monthly time scales, whereby larger cloudiness relates to larger surface winds and stronger trade-wind inversions. However, these parameters appear to be a prerequisite, rather than strong controlling factors on cloudiness, because they do not explain submonthly variations in cloudiness. Models underestimate the strength of these relationships and diverge in particular in their responses to large-scale vertical motion. No model stands out by reproducing the observed behavior in all respects. As a result, these findings suggest that climate models do not realistically represent the physical processes that underlie the coupling between trade-wind clouds and their environments in present-day climate, which is relevant for how we interpret modeled cloud feedbacks.« less

Soot effects on clouds and solar absorption: Understanding the differences in recently published soot mitigation experiments. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, S. E.; Menon, S.

2010-12-01

Attention has been drawn to black carbon aerosols, as a target for short-term mitigation of climate warming. This measure seems attractive because soot is assumed to warm the atmosphere and at the same time has a lifetime of just a few days. Therefore regulating soot emissions could, as a short-term action, potentially buy time by slowing global warming until regulations for longer lived greenhouse gases are set in place. Currently the scientific community debates the impacts of such mitigation measures, especially when considering indirect effects. We tested with the GISS/MATRIX model, a global climate model including detailed aerosol microphysics, the effect of reducing fossil fuel emissions and bio-fuel emissions and found that opposite changes in cloud droplet number concentration lead to positive cloud forcing numbers in the bio-fuel reduction case and negative forcing numbers in the diesel mitigation case. Similar experiments have been carried out and have recently been published by other modeling groups, finding partly similar partly contradicting results to our study. In this presentation we want to explain the differences in black carbon research carried out with complex microphysical models, by focusing on the treatment of mixing state, and separation between forcings and feedbacks.

Acceleration of tropical cyclogenesis by self-aggregation feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muller, Caroline J.; Romps, David M.

2018-03-01

Idealized simulations of tropical moist convection have revealed that clouds can spontaneously clump together in a process called self-aggregation. This results in a state where a moist cloudy region with intense deep convection is surrounded by extremely dry subsiding air devoid of deep convection. Because of the idealized settings of the simulations where it was discovered, the relevance of self-aggregation to the real world is still debated. Here, we show that self-aggregation feedbacks play a leading-order role in the spontaneous genesis of tropical cyclones in cloud-resolving simulations. Those feedbacks accelerate the cyclogenesis process by a factor of 2, and the feedbacks contributing to the cyclone formation show qualitative and quantitative agreement with the self-aggregation process. Once the cyclone is formed, wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) effects dominate, although we find that self-aggregation feedbacks have a small but nonnegligible contribution to the maintenance of the mature cyclone. Our results suggest that self-aggregation, and the framework developed for its study, can help shed more light into the physical processes leading to cyclogenesis and cyclone intensification. In particular, our results point out the importance of the longwave radiative cooling outside the cyclone.

Observed Reduction In Surface Solar Radiation - Aerosol Forcing Versus Cloud Feedback?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liepert, B.

The solar radiation reaching the ground is a key parameter for the climate system. It drives the hydrological cycle and numerous biological processes. Surface solar radi- ation revealed an estimated 7W/m2 or 4% decline at sites worldwide from 1961 to 1990. The strongest decline occurred at the United States sites with 19W/m2 or 10%. Increasing air pollution and hence direct and indirect aerosol effect, as we know today can only explain part of the reduction in solar radiation. Increasing cloud optical thick- ness - possibly due to global warming - is a more likely explanation for the observed reduction in solar radiation in the United States. The analysis of surface solar radiation data will be shown and compared with GCM results of the direct and indirect aerosol effect. It will be argued that the residual declines in surface solar radiation is likely due to cloud feedback.

Coupled Aerosol-Cloud Systems over Northern Vietnam during 7-SEAS BASELInE: A Radar and Modeling Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loftus, Adrian M.; Tsay, Si-Chee; Pantina, Peter; Nguyen, Cuong; Gabriel, Philip M.; Nguyen, X. A.; Sayer, Andrew M.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Matsui, Toshi

2016-01-01

The 2013 7-SEASBASELInE campaign over northern Southeast Asia (SEA) provided, for the first time ever, comprehensive ground-based W-band radar measurements of the low-level stratocumulus (Sc) systems that often exist during the spring over northern Vietnam in the presence of biomass-burning aerosols. Although spatially limited, ground-based remote sensing observations are generally free of the surface contamination and signal attenuation effects that often hinder space-borne measurements of these low-level cloud systems. Such observations permit detailed measurements of structures and lifecycles of these clouds as part of a broader effort to study potential impacts of these coupled aerosol-cloud systems on local and regional weather and air quality. Introductory analyses of the W-band radar data show these Sc systems generally follow a diurnal cycle, with peak occurrences during the nighttime and early morning hours, often accompanied by light precipitation. Preliminary results from idealized simulations of Sc development over land based on the observations reveal the familiar response of increased numbers and smaller sizes of cloud droplets, along with suppressed drizzle formation, as aerosol concentrations increase. Slight reductions in simulated W-band reflectivity values also are seen with increasing aerosol concentrations and result primarily from decreased droplet sizes. As precipitation can play a large role in removing aerosol from the atmosphere, and thereby improving air quality locally, quantifying feedbacks between aerosols and cloud systems over this region are essential, particularly given the negative impacts of biomass burning on human health in SEA. Such an endeavor should involve improved modeling capabilities along with comprehensive measurements of time-dependent aerosol and cloud profiles.

Simulations of Cloud-Radiation Interaction Using Large-Scale Forcing Derived from the CINDY/DYNAMO Northern Sounding Array

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Shuguang; Sobel, Adam H.; Fridlind, Ann; Feng, Zhe; Comstock, Jennifer M.; Minnis, Patrick; Nordeen, Michele L.

2015-01-01

The recently completed CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign observed two Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) events in the equatorial Indian Ocean from October to December 2011. Prior work has indicated that the moist static energy anomalies in these events grew and were sustained to a significant extent by radiative feedbacks. We present here a study of radiative fluxes and clouds in a set of cloud-resolving simulations of these MJO events. The simulations are driven by the large-scale forcing data set derived from the DYNAMO northern sounding array observations, and carried out in a doubly periodic domain using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulated cloud properties and radiative fluxes are compared to those derived from the S-PolKa radar and satellite observations. To accommodate the uncertainty in simulated cloud microphysics, a number of single-moment (1M) and double-moment (2M) microphysical schemes in the WRF model are tested. The 1M schemes tend to underestimate radiative flux anomalies in the active phases of the MJO events, while the 2M schemes perform better, but can overestimate radiative flux anomalies. All the tested microphysics schemes exhibit biases in the shapes of the histograms of radiative fluxes and radar reflectivity. Histograms of radiative fluxes and brightness temperature indicate that radiative biases are not evenly distributed; the most significant bias occurs in rainy areas with OLR less than 150 W/ cu sq in the 2M schemes. Analysis of simulated radar reflectivities indicates that this radiative flux uncertainty is closely related to the simulated stratiform cloud coverage. Single-moment schemes underestimate stratiform cloudiness by a factor of 2, whereas 2M schemes simulate much more stratiform cloud.

A European Federated Cloud: Innovative distributed computing solutions by EGI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sipos, Gergely; Turilli, Matteo; Newhouse, Steven; Kacsuk, Peter

2013-04-01

The European Grid Infrastructure (EGI) is the result of pioneering work that has, over the last decade, built a collaborative production infrastructure of uniform services through the federation of national resource providers that supports multi-disciplinary science across Europe and around the world. This presentation will provide an overview of the recently established 'federated cloud computing services' that the National Grid Initiatives (NGIs), operators of EGI, offer to scientific communities. The presentation will explain the technical capabilities of the 'EGI Federated Cloud' and the processes whereby earth and space science researchers can engage with it. EGI's resource centres have been providing services for collaborative, compute- and data-intensive applications for over a decade. Besides the well-established 'grid services', several NGIs already offer privately run cloud services to their national researchers. Many of these researchers recently expressed the need to share these cloud capabilities within their international research collaborations - a model similar to the way the grid emerged through the federation of institutional batch computing and file storage servers. To facilitate the setup of a pan-European cloud service from the NGIs' resources, the EGI-InSPIRE project established a Federated Cloud Task Force in September 2011. The Task Force has a mandate to identify and test technologies for a multinational federated cloud that could be provisioned within EGI by the NGIs. A guiding principle for the EGI Federated Cloud is to remain technology neutral and flexible for both resource providers and users: • Resource providers are allowed to use any cloud hypervisor and management technology to join virtualised resources into the EGI Federated Cloud as long as the site is subscribed to the user-facing interfaces selected by the EGI community. • Users can integrate high level services - such as brokers, portals and customised Virtual Research Environments - with the EGI Federated Cloud as long as these services access cloud resources through the user-facing interfaces selected by the EGI community. The Task Force will be closed in May 2013. It already • Identified key enabling technologies by which a multinational, federated 'Infrastructure as a Service' (IaaS) type cloud can be built from the NGIs' resources; • Deployed a test bed to evaluate the integration of virtualised resources within EGI and to engage with early adopter use cases from different scientific domains; • Integrated cloud resources into the EGI production infrastructure through cloud specific bindings of the EGI information system, monitoring system, authentication system, etc.; • Collected and catalogued requirements concerning the federated cloud services from the feedback of early adopter use cases; • Provided feedback and requirements to relevant technology providers on their implementations and worked with these providers to address those requirements; • Identified issues that need to be addressed by other areas of EGI (such as portal solutions, resource allocation policies, marketing and user support) to reach a production system. The Task Force will publish a blueprint in April 2013. The blueprint will drive the establishment of a production level EGI Federated Cloud service after May 2013.

Gas expulsion vs gas retention in young stellar clusters II: effects of cooling and mass segregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silich, Sergiy; Tenorio-Tagle, Guillermo

2018-05-01

Gas expulsion or gas retention is a central issue in most of the models for multiple stellar populations and light element anti-correlations in globular clusters. The success of the residual matter expulsion or its retention within young stellar clusters has also a fundamental importance in order to understand how star formation proceeds in present-day and ancient star-forming galaxies and if proto-globular clusters with multiple stellar populations are formed in the present epoch. It is usually suggested that either the residual gas is rapidly ejected from star-forming clouds by stellar winds and supernova explosions, or that the enrichment of the residual gas and the formation of the second stellar generation occur so rapidly, that the negative stellar feedback is not significant. Here we continue our study of the early development of star clusters in the extreme environments and discuss the restrictions that strong radiative cooling and stellar mass segregation provide on the gas expulsion from dense star-forming clouds. A large range of physical initial conditions in star-forming clouds which include the star-forming cloud mass, compactness, gas metallicity, star formation efficiency and effects of massive stars segregation are discussed. It is shown that in sufficiently massive and compact clusters hot shocked winds around individual massive stars may cool before merging with their neighbors. This dramatically reduces the negative stellar feedback, prevents the development of the global star cluster wind and expulsion of the residual and the processed matter into the ambient interstellar medium. The critical lines which separate the gas expulsion and the gas retention regimes are obtained.

Cloud Formation and Water Transport on Mars after Major Outflow Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santiago, D. L.; Colaprete, A.; Kreslavsky, M.; Kahre, M. A.; Asphaug, E.

2012-01-01

The triggering of a robust water cycle on Mars might have been caused by the gigantic flooding events evidenced by outflow channels. We use the Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) to test this hypothesis, studying how these presumably abrupt eruptions of water might have affected the climate of Mars in the past. We model where the water ultimately went as part of a transient atmospheric water cycle, to answer questions including: (1) Can sudden introductions of large amounts of water on the Martian surface lead to a new equilibrated water cycle? (2) What are the roles of water vapor and water ice clouds to sudden changes in the water cycle on Mars? (3) How are radiative feedbacks involved with this? (4) What is the ultimate fate of the outflow water? (5) Can we tie certain geological features to outflow water redistributed by the atmosphere?

Modelling large-scale ice-sheet-climate interactions at the last glacial inception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Browne, O. J. H.; Gregory, J. M.; Payne, A. J.; Ridley, J. K.; Rutt, I. C.

2010-05-01

In order to investigate the interactions between coevolving climate and ice-sheets on multimillenial timescales, a low-resolution atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) has been coupled to a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet model. We use the FAMOUS AOGCM, which is almost identical in formulation to the widely used HadCM3 AOGCM, but on account of its lower resolution (7.5° longitude × 5° latitude in the atmosphere, 3.75°× 2.5° in the ocean) it runs about ten times faster. We use the community ice-sheet model Glimmer at 20 km resolution, with the shallow ice approximation and an annual degree-day scheme for surface mass balance. With the FAMOUS-Glimmer coupled model, we have simulated the growth of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets at the last glacial inception, under constant orbital forcing and atmospheric composition for 116 ka BP. Ice grows in both regions, totalling 5.8 m of sea-level equivalent in 10 ka, slower than proxy records suggest. Positive climate feedbacks reinforce this growth at local scales (order hundreds of kilometres), where changes are an order of magnitude larger than on the global average. The albedo feedback (higher local albedo means a cooler climate) is important in the initial expansion of the ice-sheet area. The topography feedback (higher surface means a cooler climate) affects ice-sheet thickness and is not noticeable for the first 1 ka. These two feedbacks reinforce each other. Without them, the ice volume is ~90% less after 10 ka. In Laurentia, ice expands initially on the Canadian Arctic islands. The glaciation of the islands eventually cools the nearby mainland climate sufficiently to produce a positive mass balance there. Adjacent to the ice-sheets, cloud feedbacks tend to reduce the surface mass balance and restrain ice growth; this is an example of a local feedback whose simulation requires a model that includes detailed atmospheric physics.

The "Physical feedbacks of Arctic PBL, Sea ice, Cloud and AerosoL (PASCAL)" campaign during the Arctic POLARSTERN expedition PS106 in spring 2017.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macke, A.

2017-12-01

The Polar regions are important components in the global climate system. The widespread surface snow and ice cover strongly impacts the surface energy budget, which is tightly coupled to global atmospheric and oceanic circulations. The coupling of sea ice, clouds and aerosol in the transition zone between Open Ocean and sea ice is the focus of the PASCAL investigations to improve our understanding of the recent dramatic reduction in Arctic sea-ice. A large variety of active/passive remote sensing, in-situ-aerosol observation, and spectral irradiance measurements have been obtained during the German research icebreaker POLARSTERN expedition PS106, and provided detailed information on the atmospheric spatiotemporal structure, aerosol and cloud chemical and microphysical properties as well as the resulting surface radiation budget. Nearly identical measurements at the AWIPEV Base (German - French Research Base) in Ny-Ålesund close to the Open Ocean and collocated airborne activities of the POLAR 5 and POLAR 6 AWI aircraft in the framework of the ACLOUD project have been carried out in parallel. The airborne observations have been supplemented by observations of the boundary layer structure (mean and turbulent quantities) from a tethered balloon reaching up to 1500 m, which was operated at an ice floe station nearby POLARSTERN for two weeks. All observational activities together with intense modelling at various scales are part of the German Collaborative Research Cluster TR 172 "Arctic Amplification" that aims to provide an unprecedented picture of the complex Arctic weather and climate system. The presentation provides an overview of the measurements on-board POLARSTERN and on the ice floe station during PASCAL from May 24 to July 21 2017. We conclude how these and future similar measurements during the one-year ice drift of POLARSTERN in the framework of MOSAiC help to reduce uncertainties in Arctic aerosol-cloud interaction, cloud radiative forcing, and surface/atmosphere feedback mechanisms.

Impact of natural and anthropogenic aerosols on stratocumulus and precipitation in the Southeast Pacific: a regional modelling study using WRF-Chem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Q.; Gustafson, W. I.; Fast, J. D.

2012-09-28

Cloud-system resolving simulations with the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem) model are used to quantify the relative impacts of regional anthropogenic and oceanic emissions on changes in aerosol properties, cloud macro- and microphysics, and cloud radiative forcing over the Southeast Pacific (SEP) during the VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx) (15 October–16 November 2008). Two distinct regions are identified. The near-coast polluted region is characterized by low surface precipitation rates, the strong suppression of non-sea-salt particle activation due to sea-salt particles, a predominant albedo effect in aerosol indirect effects, and limited impact of aerosols associated withmore » anthropogenic emissions on clouds. Opposite sensitivities to natural marine and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations are seen in cloud properties (e.g., cloud optical depth and cloud-top and cloud-base heights), precipitation, and the top-of-atmosphere and surface shortwave fluxes over this region. The relatively clean remote region is characterized by large contributions of aerosols from non-regional sources (lateral boundaries) and much stronger drizzle at the surface. Under a scenario of five-fold increase in regional anthropogenic emissions, this relatively clean region shows large cloud responses, for example, a 13% increase in cloud-top height and a 9% increase in albedo in response to a moderate increase (25% of the reference case) in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration. The reduction of precipitation due to this increase in anthropogenic aerosols more than doubles the aerosol lifetime in the clean marine boundary layer. Therefore, the aerosol impacts on precipitation are amplified by the positive feedback of precipitation on aerosol, which ultimately alters the cloud micro- and macro-physical properties, leading to strong aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions. The high sensitivity is also related to an increase in cloud-top entrainment rate (by 16% at night) due to the increased anthropogenic aerosols. The simulated aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions due to the increased anthropogenic aerosols have a stronger diurnal cycle over the clean region compared to the near-coast region with stronger interactions at night. During the day, solar heating results in more frequent decoupling of the cloud and sub-cloud layers, thinner clouds, reduced precipitation, and reduced sensitivity to the increase in anthropogenic emissions. This study shows the importance of natural aerosols in accurately quantifying anthropogenic forcing within a regional modeling framework. Finally, the results of this study also imply that the energy balance perturbations from increased anthropogenic emissions are larger in the more susceptible clean environment than in already polluted environment and are larger than possible from the first indirect effect alone.« less

Perceptions of Peer Review Using Cloud-Based Software

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrichuk, Gjoa

2016-01-01

This study looks at the change in perception regarding the effect of peer feedback on writing skills using cloud-based software. Pre- and post-surveys were given. The students peer reviewed drafts of five sections of scientific reports using Google Docs. While students reported that they did not perceive their writing ability improved by being…

Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the Tibetan Plateau?

PubMed

Duan, Anmin; Xiao, Zhixiang

2015-09-02

The surface air temperature change over the Tibetan Plateau is determined based on historical observations from 1980 to 2013. In contrast to the cooling trend in the rest of China, and the global warming hiatus post-1990s, an accelerated warming trend has appeared over the Tibetan Plateau during 1998-2013 (0.25 °C decade(-1)), compared with that during 1980-1997 (0.21 °C decade(-1)). Further results indicate that, to some degree, such an accelerated warming trend might be attributable to cloud-radiation feedback. The increased nocturnal cloud over the northern Tibetan Plateau would warm the nighttime temperature via enhanced atmospheric back-radiation, while the decreased daytime cloud over the southern Tibetan Plateau would induce the daytime sunshine duration to increase, resulting in surface air temperature warming. Meanwhile, the in situ surface wind speed has recovered gradually since 1998, and thus the energy concentration cannot explain the accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau after the 1990s. It is suggested that cloud-radiation feedback may play an important role in modulating the recent accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau.

Fine-scale application of WRF-CAM5 during a dust storm episode over East Asia: Sensitivity to grid resolutions and aerosol activation parameterizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kai; Zhang, Yang; Zhang, Xin; Fan, Jiwen; Leung, L. Ruby; Zheng, Bo; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin

2018-03-01

An advanced online-coupled meteorology and chemistry model WRF-CAM5 has been applied to East Asia using triple-nested domains at different grid resolutions (i.e., 36-, 12-, and 4-km) to simulate a severe dust storm period in spring 2010. Analyses are performed to evaluate the model performance and investigate model sensitivity to different horizontal grid sizes and aerosol activation parameterizations and to examine aerosol-cloud interactions and their impacts on the air quality. A comprehensive model evaluation of the baseline simulations using the default Abdul-Razzak and Ghan (AG) aerosol activation scheme shows that the model can well predict major meteorological variables such as 2-m temperature (T2), water vapor mixing ratio (Q2), 10-m wind speed (WS10) and wind direction (WD10), and shortwave and longwave radiation across different resolutions with domain-average normalized mean biases typically within ±15%. The baseline simulations also show moderate biases for precipitation and moderate-to-large underpredictions for other major variables associated with aerosol-cloud interactions such as cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), cloud optical thickness (COT), and cloud liquid water path (LWP) due to uncertainties or limitations in the aerosol-cloud treatments. The model performance is sensitive to grid resolutions, especially for surface meteorological variables such as T2, Q2, WS10, and WD10, with the performance generally improving at finer grid resolutions for those variables. Comparison of the sensitivity simulations with an alternative (i.e., the Fountoukis and Nenes (FN) series scheme) and the default (i.e., AG scheme) aerosol activation scheme shows that the former predicts larger values for cloud variables such as CDNC and COT across all grid resolutions and improves the overall domain-average model performance for many cloud/radiation variables and precipitation. Sensitivity simulations using the FN series scheme also have large impacts on radiations, T2, precipitation, and air quality (e.g., decreasing O3) through complex aerosol-radiation-cloud-chemistry feedbacks. The inclusion of adsorptive activation of dust particles in the FN series scheme has similar impacts on the meteorology and air quality but to lesser extent as compared to differences between the FN series and AG schemes. Compared to the overall differences between the FN series and AG schemes, impacts of adsorptive activation of dust particles can contribute significantly to the increase of total CDNC (∼45%) during dust storm events and indicate their importance in modulating regional climate over East Asia.

Interpretation of multi-wavelength-retrieved cloud droplet effective radii in terms of cloud vertical inhomogeneity based on water cloud simulations using a spectral-bin microphysics cloud model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsui, T. N.; Suzuki, K.; Nakajima, T. Y.; Matsumae, Y.

2011-12-01

Clouds play an import role in energy balance and climate changes of the Earth. IPCC AR4, however, pointed out that cloud feedback is still the large source of uncertainty in climate estimates. In the recent decade, the new satellites with the active instruments (e.g. Cloudsat) represented a new epoch in earth observations. The active remote sensing is powerful for illustrating the vertical structures of clouds, but the passive remote sensing from satellite images also contribute to better understating of cloud system. For instance, Nakajima et al. (2010a) and Suzuki et al. (2010) illustrated transition of cloud growth, from cloud droplet to drizzle to rain, using the combine analysis of the cloud droplet size retrieved from passive images (MODIS) and the reflectivity profiles from Cloudsat. Furthermore, EarthCARE that is a new satellite launched years later is composed of not only the active but also passive instruments for the combined analysis. On the other hands, the methods to retrieve the advanced information of cloud properties are also required because many imagers have been operated and are now planned (e.g. GCOM-C/SGLI), and have the advantages such as wide observation width and more observation channels. Cloud droplet effective radius (CDR) and cloud optical thickness (COT) can be retrieved using a non-water-absorbing band (e.g. 0.86μm) and a water-absorbing band (1.6, 2.1, 3.7μm) of imagers under the assumptions such as the log-normal droplet size distribution and the plane-parallel cloud structure. However, the differences between three retrieved CDRs using 1.6, 2.1 or 3.7μm (R16, R21 and R37) are found in the satellite observations. Several studies pointed out that vertical/horizontal inhomogeneity of cloud structure, difference of penetration depth of water-absorbing bands, multi-modal droplet distribution and/or 3-D radiative transfer effect cause the CDR differences. In other words, the advanced information of clouds may lie hidden in the differences. Nakajima et al. (2010b) investigated the impact of the differences sensitivities to particle size and the penetration depth in an attempt to explain the CDR differences found in by using a simple two-layer cloud model with the bi-modal size distribution functions. Their results showed the sensitivity differences between 1.6, 2.1 and 3.7μm bands to droplet sizes and their vertical stratification. In this study, we further investigate the impact of the vertical inhomogeneity structure including the drizzle by using a spectral-bin microphysics cloud model. We apply the 1-D radiative transfer computation to the numerical cloud fields generated by the cloud model, and retrieve the CDRs from the reflectances thus simulated at each band. We then compare the statistics of these retrieved CDRs with the CDRs obtained from MODIS observations and derive the sensitivity functions of the retrieved CDRs to the particle size and the optical depth from the sets of the droplet distribution functions predicted by the model and the retrieved CDRs. This study is an attempt to interpret the CDR differences in terms of the cloud vertical structure and the cloud particle growth processes.

Online coupled regional meteorology-chemistry models in Europe: current status and prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baklanov, A.; Schluenzen, K. H.; Suppan, P.; Baldasano, J.; Brunner, D.; Aksoyoglu, S.; Carmichael, G.; Douros, J.; Flemming, J.; Forkel, R.; Galmarini, S.; Gauss, M.; Grell, G.; Hirtl, M.; Joffre, S.; Jorba, O.; Kaas, E.; Kaasik, M.; Kallos, G.; Kong, X.; Korsholm, U.; Kurganskiy, A.; Kushta, J.; Lohmann, U.; Mahura, A.; Manders-Groot, A.; Maurizi, A.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Rao, S. T.; Savage, N.; Seigneur, C.; Sokhi, R.; Solazzo, E.; Solomos, S.; Sørensen, B.; Tsegas, G.; Vignati, E.; Vogel, B.; Zhang, Y.

2013-05-01

The simulation of the coupled evolution of atmospheric dynamics, pollutant transport, chemical reactions and atmospheric composition is one of the most challenging tasks in environmental modelling, climate change studies, and weather forecasting for the next decades as they all involve strongly integrated processes. Weather strongly influences air quality (AQ) and atmospheric transport of hazardous materials, while atmospheric composition can influence both weather and climate by directly modifying the atmospheric radiation budget or indirectly affecting cloud formation. Until recently, however, due to the scientific complexities and lack of computational power, atmospheric chemistry and weather forecasting have developed as separate disciplines, leading to the development of separate modelling systems that are only loosely coupled. The continuous increase in computer power has now reached a stage that enables us to perform online coupling of regional meteorological models with atmospheric chemical transport models. The focus on integrated systems is timely, since recent research has shown that meteorology and chemistry feedbacks are important in the context of many research areas and applications, including numerical weather prediction (NWP), AQ forecasting as well as climate and Earth system modelling. However, the relative importance of online integration and its priorities, requirements and levels of detail necessary for representing different processes and feedbacks can greatly vary for these related communities: (i) NWP, (ii) AQ forecasting and assessments, (iii) climate and earth system modelling. Additional applications are likely to benefit from online modelling, e.g.: simulation of volcanic ash or forest fire plumes, pollen warnings, dust storms, oil/gas fires, geo-engineering tests involving changes in the radiation balance. The COST Action ES1004 - European framework for online integrated air quality and meteorology modelling (EuMetChem) - aims at paving the way towards a new generation of online integrated atmospheric chemical transport and meteorology modelling with two-way interactions between different atmospheric processes including dynamics, chemistry, clouds, radiation, boundary layer and emissions. As its first task, we summarise the current status of European modelling practices and experience with online coupled modelling of meteorology with atmospheric chemistry including feedback mechanisms and attempt reviewing the various issues connected to the different modules of such online coupled models but also providing recommendations for coping with them for the benefit of the modelling community at large.

Cloud-based calculators for fast and reliable access to NOAA's geomagnetic field models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, A.; Nair, M. C.; Boneh, N.; Chulliat, A.

2017-12-01

While the Global Positioning System (GPS) provides accurate point locations, it does not provide pointing directions. Therefore, the absolute directional information provided by the Earth's magnetic field is of primary importance for navigation and for the pointing of technical devices such as aircrafts, satellites and lately, mobile phones. The major magnetic sources that affect compass-based navigation are the Earth's core, its magnetized crust and the electric currents in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. NOAA/CIRES Geomagnetism (ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/) group develops and distributes models that describe all these important sources to aid navigation. Our geomagnetic models are used in variety of platforms including airplanes, ships, submarines and smartphones. While the magnetic field from Earth's core can be described in relatively fewer parameters and is suitable for offline computation, the magnetic sources from Earth's crust, ionosphere and magnetosphere require either significant computational resources or real-time capabilities and are not suitable for offline calculation. This is especially important for small navigational devices or embedded systems, where computational resources are limited. Recognizing the need for a fast and reliable access to our geomagnetic field models, we developed cloud-based application program interfaces (APIs) for NOAA's ionospheric and magnetospheric magnetic field models. In this paper we will describe the need for reliable magnetic calculators, the challenges faced in running geomagnetic field models in the cloud in real-time and the feedback from our user community. We discuss lessons learned harvesting and validating the data which powers our cloud services, as well as our strategies for maintaining near real-time service, including load-balancing, real-time monitoring, and instance cloning. We will also briefly talk about the progress we achieved on NOAA's Big Earth Data Initiative (BEDI) funded project to develop API interface to our Enhanced Magnetic Model (EMM).

Introducing the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.; Winter, Jonathn M.; Marcella, Marc P.; Gianotti, Rebecca L.; Im, Eun-Soon

2013-04-01

During the last decade researchers at MIT have worked on improving the skill of Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) in simulating climate over different regions through the incorporation of new physical schemes or modification of original schemes. The MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM) features several modifications over RegCM3 including coupling of Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a new surface albedo assignment method, a new convective cloud and rainfall auto-conversion scheme, and a modified boundary layer height and cloud scheme. Here, we introduce the MRCM and briefly describe the major model modifications relative to RegCM3 and their impact on the model performance. The most significant difference relative to the RegCM3 original configuration is coupling the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) land-surface scheme (Winter et al., 2009). Based on the simulations using IBIS over the North America, the Maritime Continent, Southwest Asia and West Africa, we demonstrate that the use of IBIS as the land surface scheme results in better representation of surface energy and water budgets in comparison to BATS. Furthermore, the addition of a new irrigation scheme to IBIS makes it possible to investigate the effects of irrigation over any region. Also a new surface albedo assignment method used together with IBIS brings further improvement in simulations of surface radiation (Marcella and Eltahir, 2013). Another important feature of the MRCM is the introduction of a new convective cloud and rainfall auto-conversion scheme (Gianotti and Eltahir, 2013). This modification brings more physical realism into an important component of the model, and succeeds in simulating convective-radiative feedback improving model performance across several radiation fields and rainfall characteristics. Other features of MRCM such as the modified boundary layer height and cloud scheme, and the improvements in the dust emission and transport representations will be discussed.

Seasonal Correlations of SST, Water Vapor, and Convective Activity in Tropical Oceans: A New Hyperspectral Data Set for Climate Model Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aumann, Hartmut H.; Gregorich, David T.; Broberg, Steven E.; Elliott, Denis A.

2007-01-01

The analysis of the response of the Earth Climate System to the seasonal changes of solar forcing in the tropical oceans using four years of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) data between 2002 and 2006 gives new insight into amplitude and phase relationships between surface and tropospheric temperatures, humidity, and convective activity. The intensity of the convective activity is measured by counting deep convective clouds. The peaks of convective activity, temperature in the mid-troposphere, and water vapor in the 0 - 30 N and 0 - 30 S tropical ocean zonal means occur about two months after solstice, all leading the peak of the sea surface temperature by several weeks. Phase is key to the evaluation of feedback. The evaluation of climate models in terms of zonal and annual means and annual mean deviations from zonal means can now be supplemented by evaluating the phase of key atmospheric and surface parameters relative to solstice. The ability of climate models to reproduce the statistical flavor of the observed amplitudes and relative phases for broad zonal means should lead to increased confidence in the realism of their water vapor and cloud feedback algorithms. AIRS and AMSU were launched into a 705 km altitude polar sun-synchronous orbit on the EOS Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002, and have been in routine data gathering mode since September 2002.

Seasonal Correlations of SST, Water Vapor, and Convective Activity in Tropical Oceans: A New Hyperspectral Data Set for Climate Model Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aumann, Hartmut H.; Gregorich, David T.; Broberg, Steven E.; Elliott, Denis A.

2007-01-01

The analysis of the response of the Earth Climate System to the seasonal changes of solar forcing in the tropical oceans using four years of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) data between 2002 and 2006 gives new insight into amplitude and phase relationships between surface and tropospheric temperatures, humidity, and convective activity. The intensity of the convective activity is measured by counting deep convective clouds. The peaks of convective activity, temperature in the mid-troposphere, and water vapor in the 0-30 N and 0-30 S tropical ocean zonal means occur about two months after solstice, all leading the peak of the sea surface temperature by several weeks. Phase is key to the evaluation of feedback. The evaluation of climate models in terms of zonal and annual means and annual mean deviations from zonal means can now be supplemented by evaluating the phase of key atmospheric and surface parameters relative to solstice. The ability of climate models to reproduce the statistical flavor of the observed amplitudes and relative phases for broad zonal means should lead to increased confidence in the realism of their water vapor and cloud feedback algorithms. AIRS and AMSU were launched into a 705 km altitude polar sun-synchronous orbit on the EOS Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002, and have been in routine data gathering mode since September 2002.

Disk Evolution, Element Abundances and Cloud Properties of Young Gas Giant Planets

PubMed Central

Helling, Christiane; Woitke, Peter; Rimmer, Paul B.; Kamp, Inga; Thi, Wing-Fai; Meijerink, Rowin

2014-01-01

We discuss the chemical pre-conditions for planet formation, in terms of gas and ice abundances in a protoplanetary disk, as function of time and position, and the resulting chemical composition and cloud properties in the atmosphere when young gas giant planets form, in particular discussing the effects of unusual, non-solar carbon and oxygen abundances. Large deviations between the abundances of the host star and its gas giants seem likely to occur if the planet formation follows the core-accretion scenario. These deviations stem from the separate evolution of gas and dust in the disk, where the dust forms the planet cores, followed by the final run-away accretion of the left-over gas. This gas will contain only traces of elements like C, N and O, because those elements have frozen out as ices. ProDiMo protoplanetary disk models are used to predict the chemical evolution of gas and ice in the midplane. We find that cosmic rays play a crucial role in slowly un-blocking the CO, where the liberated oxygen forms water, which then freezes out quickly. Therefore, the C/O ratio in the gas phase is found to gradually increase with time, in a region bracketed by the water and CO ice-lines. In this regions, C/O is found to approach unity after about 5 Myrs, scaling with the cosmic ray ionization rate assumed. We then explore how the atmospheric chemistry and cloud properties in young gas giants are affected when the non-solar C/O ratios predicted by the disk models are assumed. The Drift cloud formation model is applied to study the formation of atmospheric clouds under the influence of varying premordial element abundances and its feedback onto the local gas. We demonstrate that element depletion by cloud formation plays a crucial role in converting an oxygen-rich atmosphere gas into carbon-rich gas when non-solar, premordial element abundances are considered as suggested by disk models. PMID:25370190

Disk evolution, element abundances and cloud properties of young gas giant planets.

PubMed

Helling, Christiane; Woitke, Peter; Rimmer, Paul B; Kamp, Inga; Thi, Wing-Fai; Meijerink, Rowin

2014-04-14

We discuss the chemical pre-conditions for planet formation, in terms of gas and ice abundances in a protoplanetary disk, as function of time and position, and the resulting chemical composition and cloud properties in the atmosphere when young gas giant planets form, in particular discussing the effects of unusual, non-solar carbon and oxygen abundances. Large deviations between the abundances of the host star and its gas giants seem likely to occur if the planet formation follows the core-accretion scenario. These deviations stem from the separate evolution of gas and dust in the disk, where the dust forms the planet cores, followed by the final run-away accretion of the left-over gas. This gas will contain only traces of elements like C, N and O, because those elements have frozen out as ices. PRODIMO protoplanetary disk models are used to predict the chemical evolution of gas and ice in the midplane. We find that cosmic rays play a crucial role in slowly un-blocking the CO, where the liberated oxygen forms water, which then freezes out quickly. Therefore, the C/O ratio in the gas phase is found to gradually increase with time, in a region bracketed by the water and CO ice-lines. In this regions, C/O is found to approach unity after about 5 Myrs, scaling with the cosmic ray ionization rate assumed. We then explore how the atmospheric chemistry and cloud properties in young gas giants are affected when the non-solar C/O ratios predicted by the disk models are assumed. The DRIFT cloud formation model is applied to study the formation of atmospheric clouds under the influence of varying premordial element abundances and its feedback onto the local gas. We demonstrate that element depletion by cloud formation plays a crucial role in converting an oxygen-rich atmosphere gas into carbon-rich gas when non-solar, premordial element abundances are considered as suggested by disk models.

The impact of stellar feedback on the density and velocity structure of the interstellar medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grisdale, Kearn; Agertz, Oscar; Romeo, Alessandro B.; Renaud, Florent; Read, Justin I.

2017-04-01

We study the impact of stellar feedback in shaping the density and velocity structure of neutral hydrogen (H I) in disc galaxies. For our analysis, we carry out ˜4.6 pc resolution N-body+adaptive mesh refinement hydrodynamic simulations of isolated galaxies, set up to mimic a Milky Way and a Large and Small Magellanic Cloud. We quantify the density and velocity structure of the interstellar medium using power spectra and compare the simulated galaxies to observed H I in local spiral galaxies from THINGS (The H I Nearby Galaxy Survey). Our models with stellar feedback give an excellent match to the observed THINGS H I density power spectra. We find that kinetic energy power spectra in feedback-regulated galaxies, regardless of galaxy mass and size, show scalings in excellent agreement with supersonic turbulence (E(k) ∝ k-2) on scales below the thickness of the H I layer. We show that feedback influences the gas density field, and drives gas turbulence, up to large (kpc) scales. This is in stark contrast to density fields generated by large-scale gravity-only driven turbulence. We conclude that the neutral gas content of galaxies carries signatures of stellar feedback on all scales.

Modeling the Interaction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Quasi-biennial Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Z.; Wang, S.; Nie, J.; Sobel, A. H.

2017-12-01

The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the intra-seasonal Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) are two hallmark features of the tropical atmosphere. Recent observational results have demonstrated a strong correlation between the MJO and the QBO, particularly in boreal winter, with enhanced MJO activity and increased predictability during the easterly phase of the QBO. Despite the robustness of the observational result, the physical processes through which the MJO and QBO interact are unknown and largely unstudied. We demonstrate that the MJO can be simulated in the WRF cloud-resolving model with large-scale forcing taken from the DYNAMO field campaign, during a period when two MJO events were observed and the QBO was in a neutral phase. We look at the effect of forcing the model MJO with idealized temperature anomalies around the tropopause, representative of the easterly and westerly QBO phases. While the model demonstrates some robust relationships between the MJO and QBO - including an increase in the vertical velocity and cloud fraction, and a decrease in OLR during the easterly QBO phase - other variables, such as precipitation, depend on the QBO phase and the particular MJO event in a more complicated manner. We conclude with some preliminary results towards understanding the mechanisms driving the MJO-QBO relationship through examining the effects of cloud-radiative feedback and horizontal moisture advection on the model results.

Magic - Marine Arm Gpci Investigation of Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, E. R.; Wiscombe, W. J.; Albrecht, B. A.; Bland, G.; Flagg, C. N.; Klein, S. A.; Kollias, P.; Mace, G. G.; Reynolds, M.; Schwartz, S. E.; Siebesma, P.; Teixeira, J.; Wood, R.; Zhang, M.

2012-12-01

MAGIC, the Marine ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program) GPCI Investigation of Clouds, will deploy the Second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2) aboard the Horizon Lines cargo container ship M/V Spirit traversing the route between Los Angeles, CA and Honolulu, HI from October, 2012 through September, 2013 (except from a few months in the middle of this time period when the ship will be in dry dock). During this time AMF2 will observe and characterize the properties of clouds and precipitation, aerosols, and atmospheric radiation; standard meteorological and oceanographic variables; and atmospheric structure. There will also be Intensive Observational Periods (IOPs), one in January, 2013 and one in July, 2013 during which more detailed measurements of the atmospheric structure will be made. Clouds remain a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. In this context, subtropical marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds play a key role in cloud-climate feedbacks that are not well understood yet play a large role in biases both in seasonal coupled model forecasts and annual mean climate forecasts. In particular, current climate models do not accurately represent the transition from the stratocumulus (Sc) regime, with its high albedo and large impact on the global radiative balance of Earth, to shallow trade-wind cumulus (Cu), which play a fundamental role in global surface evaporation and also albedo. Climate models do not yet adequately parameterize the small-scale physical processes associated with turbulence, convection, and radiation in these clouds. Part of this inability results from lack of accurate data on these clouds and the conditions responsible for their properties, including aerosol properties, radiation, and atmospheric and oceanographic conditions. The primary objectives of MAGIC are to improve the representation of the Sc-to-Cu transition in climate models by characterizing the essential properties of this transition, and to produce the observed statistics of these Sc-to-Cu characteristics for the deployment period along the transect. This first marine deployment of AMF2 will yield an unparalleled and extremely rich data set that will greatly enhance the ability to understand and parameterize clouds and precipitation, aerosols, and radiation and the interactions among them; the processes that determine their properties; and factors that control these processes. Deployment of AMF2 on a ship that routinely traverses this route will provide a long-term data set over a vast cloud region which is of intense interest to climate modelers. Specifically, the proposed transect lies closely along the cross section used for the GPCI, and the data collected will provide constraint, validation, and support for this modeling effort, and for associated modeling efforts such as the CGILS and EUCLIPSE.

Host Model Uncertainty in Aerosol Radiative Effects: the AeroCom Prescribed Experiment and Beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stier, Philip; Schutgens, Nick; Bian, Huisheng; Boucher, Olivier; Chin, Mian; Ghan, Steven; Huneeus, Nicolas; Kinne, Stefan; Lin, Guangxing; Myhre, Gunnar; Penner, Joyce; Randles, Cynthia; Samset, Bjorn; Schulz, Michael; Yu, Hongbin; Zhou, Cheng; Bellouin, Nicolas; Ma, Xiaoyan; Yu, Fangqun; Takemura, Toshihiko

2013-04-01

Anthropogenic and natural aerosol radiative effects are recognized to affect global and regional climate. Multi-model "diversity" in estimates of the aerosol radiative effect is often perceived as a measure of the uncertainty in modelling aerosol itself. However, current aerosol models vary considerably in model components relevant for the calculation of aerosol radiative forcings and feedbacks and the associated "host-model uncertainties" are generally convoluted with the actual uncertainty in aerosol modelling. In the AeroCom Prescribed intercomparison study we systematically isolate and quantify host model uncertainties on aerosol forcing experiments through prescription of identical aerosol radiative properties in eleven participating models. Host model errors in aerosol radiative forcing are largest in regions of uncertain host model components, such as stratocumulus cloud decks or areas with poorly constrained surface albedos, such as sea ice. Our results demonstrate that host model uncertainties are an important component of aerosol forcing uncertainty that require further attention. However, uncertainties in aerosol radiative effects also include short-term and long-term feedback processes that will be systematically explored in future intercomparison studies. Here we will present an overview of the proposals for discussion and results from early scoping studies.

Land-atmosphere coupling manifested in warm-season observations on the U.S. southern great plains

DOE PAGES

Phillips, Thomas J.; Klein, Stephen A.

2014-01-28

This study examines several observational aspects of land-atmosphere coupling on daily average time scales during warm seasons of the years 1997 to 2008 at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility site near Lamont, Oklahoma. Characteristics of the local land-atmosphere coupling are inferred by analyzing the covariability of selected land and atmospheric variables that include precipitation and soil moisture, surface air temperature, relative humidity, radiant and turbulent fluxes, as well as low-level cloud base height and fractional coverage. For both the energetic and hydrological aspects of this coupling, it is found that large-scalemore » atmospheric forcings predominate, with local feedbacks of the land on the atmosphere being comparatively small much of the time. The weak land feedbacks are manifested by 1) the inability of soil moisture to comprehensively impact the coupled land-atmosphere energetics, and 2) the limited recycling of local surface moisture under conditions where most of the rainfall derives from convective cells that originate at remote locations. There is some evidence, nevertheless, of the local land feedback becoming stronger as the soil dries out in the aftermath of precipitation events, or on days when the local boundary-layer clouds are influenced by thermal updrafts known to be associated with convection originating at the surface. Finally, we also discuss potential implications of these results for climate-model representation of regional land-atmosphere coupling.« less

Nonrotating Convective Self-Aggregation in a Limited Area AGCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, Nathan P.; Putman, William M.

2018-04-01

We present nonrotating simulations with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) in a square limited area domain over uniform sea surface temperature. As in previous studies, convection spontaneously aggregates into humid clusters, driven by a combination of radiative and moisture-convective feedbacks. The aggregation is qualitatively independent of resolution, with horizontal grid spacing from 3 to 110 km, with both explicit and parameterized deep convection. A budget for the spatial variance of column moist static energy suggests that longwave radiative and surface flux feedbacks help establish aggregation, while the shortwave feedback contributes to its maintenance. Mechanism-denial experiments confirm that aggregation does not occur without interactive longwave radiation. Ice cloud radiative effects help support the humid convecting regions but are not essential for aggregation, while liquid clouds have a negligible effect. Removing the dependence of parameterized convection on tropospheric humidity reduces the intensity of aggregation but does not prevent the formation of dry regions. In domain sizes less than (5,000 km)2, the aggregation forms a single cluster, while larger domains develop multiple clusters. Larger domains initialized with a single large cluster are unable to maintain them, suggesting an upper size limit. Surface wind speed increases with domain size, implying that maintenance of the boundary layer winds may limit cluster size. As cluster size increases, large boundary layer temperature anomalies develop to maintain the surface pressure gradient, leading to an increase in the depth of parameterized convective heating and an increase in gross moist stability.

Environmental assessment for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program: Southern Great Plains Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Policastro, A.J.; Pfingston, J.M.; Maloney, D.M.

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program is aimed at supplying improved predictive capability of climate change, particularly the prediction of cloud-climate feedback. The objective will be achieved by measuring the atmospheric radiation and physical and meteorological quantities that control solar radiation in the earth`s atmosphere and using this information to test global climate and related models. The proposed action is to construct and operate a Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) research site in the southern Great Plains as part of the Department of Energy`s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program whose objective is to develop an improved predictive capability of global climatemore » change. The purpose of this CART research site in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma would be to collect meteorological and other scientific information to better characterize the processes controlling radiation transfer on a global scale. Impacts which could result from this facility are described.« less

The Diurnal Cycle in TOGA-COARE: Regional Scale Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Jia, Y.

1999-01-01

The diurnal variation of precipitation processes over the tropics is a well-known phenomenon and has been studied using surface rainfall data, radar reflectivity data, and satellite-derived cloudiness and precipitation. Recently, analyzed observations from Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) in the tropical western Pacific ocean to study the relevant mechanisms producing diurnal variation of precipitation. They found that the diurnal Sea surface temperature (SST) cycle is important for afternoon showers in the undisturbed periods and diurnal radiative processes for nocturnal rainfall. Cloud resolving models (CRMS) have been used to determine the mechanisms associated with diurnal variation of precipitating processes. CRMs allow explicit cloud-radiation and air-sea interactive processes. However, CRMs can be only used for idealized simulations (i.e., no feedback between clouds and their embedded large-scale environments; cyclic lateral boundary conditions and idealized initial conditions). In this study, the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with improved physics (i.e., cloud microphysics, radiation, land-soil-vegetation-surface processes, and TOGA COARE flux scheme) and a multiple level nesting technique (covers the TOGA COARE LSA/IFA with a 54 km grid and can nest down to 18, 6 and possibly even 2 km) will be adopted for studying the diurnal variations of rainfall. We will examine precipitation processes over open ocean and over land. We will also perform sensitivity tests to determine how the radiative forcing and diurnal SST cycle affects the development of convection.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boybeyi, Zafer

The Department of Energy (DOE) awarded George Mason University (GMU) with a research project. This project started on June, 2009 and ended July 2014. Main objectives of this research project are; a) to assess the indirect and semi-direct aerosol effects on microphysical structure and radiative properties of Arctic clouds, b) to assess the impact of feedback between the aerosol-cloud interactions and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) processes on the surface energy balance, c) to better understand and characterize the important unresolved microphysical processes, aerosol effects, and ABL processes and feedbacks, over meso-γ spatial (~1-2 km) and temporal scales (a few minutesmore » to days), and d) to investigate the scale dependency of microphysical parameterizations and its effect on simulations.« less

Gravity Waves Generated by Convection: A New Idealized Model Tool and Direct Validation with Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, M. Joan; Stephan, Claudia

2015-04-01

In climate models, gravity waves remain too poorly resolved to be directly modelled. Instead, simplified parameterizations are used to include gravity wave effects on model winds. A few climate models link some of the parameterized waves to convective sources, providing a mechanism for feedback between changes in convection and gravity wave-driven changes in circulation in the tropics and above high-latitude storms. These convective wave parameterizations are based on limited case studies with cloud-resolving models, but they are poorly constrained by observational validation, and tuning parameters have large uncertainties. Our new work distills results from complex, full-physics cloud-resolving model studies to essential variables for gravity wave generation. We use the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model to study relationships between precipitation, latent heating/cooling and other cloud properties to the spectrum of gravity wave momentum flux above midlatitude storm systems. Results show the gravity wave spectrum is surprisingly insensitive to the representation of microphysics in WRF. This is good news for use of these models for gravity wave parameterization development since microphysical properties are a key uncertainty. We further use the full-physics cloud-resolving model as a tool to directly link observed precipitation variability to gravity wave generation. We show that waves in an idealized model forced with radar-observed precipitation can quantitatively reproduce instantaneous satellite-observed features of the gravity wave field above storms, which is a powerful validation of our understanding of waves generated by convection. The idealized model directly links observations of surface precipitation to observed waves in the stratosphere, and the simplicity of the model permits deep/large-area domains for studies of wave-mean flow interactions. This unique validated model tool permits quantitative studies of gravity wave driving of regional circulation and provides a new method for future development of realistic convective gravity wave parameterizations.

Boundary-layer diabatic processes, the virtual effect, and convective self-aggregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, D.

2017-12-01

The atmosphere can self-organize into long-lasting large-scale overturning circulations over an ocean surface with uniform temperature. This phenomenon is referred to as convective self-aggregation and has been argued to be important for tropical weather and climate systems. Here we use a 1D shallow water model and a 2D cloud-resolving model (CRM) to show that boundary-layer diabatic processes are essential for convective self-aggregation. We will show that boundary-layer radiative cooling, convective heating, and surface buoyancy flux help convection self-aggregate because they generate available potential energy (APE), which sustains the overturning circulation. We will also show that evaporative cooling in the boundary layer (cold pool) inhibits convective self-aggregation by reducing APE. Both the shallow water model and CRM results suggest that the enhanced virtual effect of water vapor can lead to convective self-aggregation, and this effect is mainly in the boundary layer. This study proposes new dynamical feedbacks for convective self-aggregation and complements current studies that focus on thermodynamic feedbacks.

The size-luminosity relationship of quasar narrow-line regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dempsey, Ross; Zakamska, Nadia L.

2018-07-01

The presence of an active galactic nucleus (AGN) can strongly affect its host. Due to the copious radiative power of the nucleus, the effects of radiative feedback can be detected over the entire host galaxy and sometimes well into the intergalactic space. In this paper we model the observed size-luminosity relationship of the narrow-line regions (NLRs) of AGN. We model the NLR as a collection of clouds in pressure equilibrium with the ionizing radiation, with each cloud producing line emission calculated by Cloudy. The sizes of the NLRs of powerful quasars are reproduced without any free parameters, as long as they contain massive (105-107 M⊙) ionization-bounded clouds. At lower AGN luminosities the observed sizes are larger than the model sizes, likely due to additional unmodeled sources of ionization (e.g. star formation). We find that the observed saturation of sizes at ˜10 kpc which is observed at high AGN luminosities (Lion ≃ 1046 erg s-1) is naturally explained by optically thick clouds absorbing the ionizing radiation and preventing illumination beyond a critical distance. Using our models in combination with observations of the [O III]/IR ratio and the [O III] size-IR luminosity relationship, we calculate the covering factor of the obscuring torus (and therefore the type 2 fraction within the quasar population) to be f = 0.5, though this is likely an upper bound. Finally, because the gas behind the ionization front is invisible in ionized gas transitions, emission-based NLR mass calculations underestimate the mass of the NLR and therefore of the energetics of ionized-gas winds.

The Size-Luminosity Relationship of Quasar Narrow-Line Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dempsey, Ross; Zakamska, Nadia L.

2018-04-01

The presence of an active galactic nucleus (AGN) can strongly affect its host. Due to the copious radiative power of the nucleus, the effects of radiative feedback can be detected over the entire host galaxy and sometimes well into the intergalactic space. In this paper we model the observed size-luminosity relationship of the narrow-line regions (NLRs) of AGN. We model the NLR as a collection of clouds in pressure equilibrium with the ionizing radiation, with each cloud producing line emission calculated by Cloudy. The sizes of the NLRs of powerful quasars are reproduced without any free parameters, as long as they contain massive (105M⊙ to 107M⊙) ionization-bounded clouds. At lower AGN luminosities the observed sizes are larger than the model sizes, likely due to additional unmodeled sources of ionization (e.g., star formation). We find that the observed saturation of sizes at ˜10kpc which is observed at high AGN luminosities (Lion ≃ 1046erg/s) is naturally explained by optically thick clouds absorbing the ionizing radiation and preventing illumination beyond a critical distance. Using our models in combination with observations of the [O III]/IR ratio and the [O III] size - IR luminosity relationship, we calculate the covering factor of the obscuring torus (and therefore the type 2 fraction within the quasar population) to be f = 0.5, though this is likely an upper bound. Finally, because the gas behind the ionization front is invisible in ionized gas transitions, emission-based NLR mass calculations underestimate the mass of the NLR and therefore of the energetics of ionized-gas winds.

Sensitivity of Precipitation in Coupled Land-Atmosphere Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neelin, David; Zeng, N.; Suarez, M.; Koster, R.

2004-01-01

The project objective was to understand mechanisms by which atmosphere-land-ocean processes impact precipitation in the mean climate and interannual variations, focusing on tropical and subtropical regions. A combination of modeling tools was used: an intermediate complexity land-atmosphere model developed at UCLA known as the QTCM and the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Program general circulation model (NSIPP GCM). The intermediate complexity model was used to develop hypotheses regarding the physical mechanisms and theory for the interplay of large-scale dynamics, convective heating, cloud radiative effects and land surface feedbacks. The theoretical developments were to be confronted with diagnostics from the more complex GCM to validate or modify the theory.

Overview of the Manitou Experimental Forest Observatory: Site description and selected science results from 2008 to 2013

Treesearch

J. Ortega; A. Turnipseed; A. B. Guenther; T. G. Karl; D. A. Day; D. Gochis; J. A. Huffman; A. J. Prenni; E. J. T. Levin; S. M. Kreidenweis; P. J. DeMott; Y. Tobo; E. G. Patton; A. Hodzic; Y. Y. Cui; P. C. Harley; R. S. Hornbrook; E. C. Apel; R. K. Monson; A. S. D. Eller; J. P. Greenberg; M. C. Barth; P. Campuzano-Jost; B. B. Palm; J. L. Jimenez; A. C. Aiken; M. K. Dubey; C. Geron; J. Offenberg; M. G. Ryan; P. J. Fornwalt; S. C. Pryor; F. N. Keutsch; J. P. DiGangi; A. W. H. Chan; A. H. Goldstein; G. M. Wolfe; S. Kim; L. Kaser; R. Schnitzhofer; A. Hansel; C. A. Cantrell; R. L. Mauldin; J. N. Smith

2014-01-01

The Bio-hydro-atmosphere interactions of Energy, Aerosols, Carbon, H2O, Organics and Nitrogen (BEACHON) project seeks to understand the feedbacks and interrelationships between hydrology, biogenic emissions, carbon assimilation, aerosol properties, clouds and associated feedbacks within water-limited ecosystems. The Manitou Experimental Forest Observatory (MEFO) was...

The influence of clouds and diffuse radiation on ecosystem-atmosphere CO2 and CO18O exhanges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Still, C.J.; Riley, W.J.; Biraud, S.C.

2009-05-01

This study evaluates the potential impact of clouds on ecosystem CO{sub 2} and CO{sub 2} isotope fluxes ('isofluxes') in two contrasting ecosystems (a broadleaf deciduous forest and a C{sub 4} grassland), in a region for which cloud cover, meteorological, and isotope data are available for driving the isotope-enabled land surface model, ISOLSM. Our model results indicate a large impact of clouds on ecosystem CO{sub 2} fluxes and isofluxes. Despite lower irradiance on partly cloudy and cloudy days, predicted forest canopy photosynthesis was substantially higher than on clear, sunny days, and the highest carbon uptake was achieved on the cloudiest day.more » This effect was driven by a large increase in light-limited shade leaf photosynthesis following an increase in the diffuse fraction of irradiance. Photosynthetic isofluxes, by contrast, were largest on partly cloudy days, as leaf water isotopic composition was only slightly depleted and photosynthesis was enhanced, as compared to adjacent clear sky days. On the cloudiest day, the forest exhibited intermediate isofluxes: although photosynthesis was highest on this day, leaf-to-atmosphere isofluxes were reduced from a feedback of transpiration on canopy relative humidity and leaf water. Photosynthesis and isofluxes were both reduced in the C{sub 4} grass canopy with increasing cloud cover and diffuse fraction as a result of near-constant light limitation of photosynthesis. These results suggest that some of the unexplained variation in global mean {delta}{sup 18}O of CO{sub 2} may be driven by large-scale changes in clouds and aerosols and their impacts on diffuse radiation, photosynthesis, and relative humidity.« less

Delay-based virtual congestion control in multi-tenant datacenters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yuxin; Zhu, Danhong; Zhang, Dong

2018-03-01

With the evolution of cloud computing and virtualization, the congestion control of virtual datacenters has become the basic issue for multi-tenant datacenters transmission. Regarding to the friendly conflict of heterogeneous congestion control among multi-tenant, this paper proposes a delay-based virtual congestion control, which translates the multi-tenant heterogeneous congestion control into delay-based feedback uniformly by setting the hypervisor translation layer, modifying three-way handshake of explicit feedback and packet loss feedback and throttling receive window. The simulation results show that the delay-based virtual congestion control can effectively solve the unfairness of heterogeneous feedback congestion control algorithms.

Validation of Local-Cloud Model Outputs With the GOES Satellite Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, E.

2005-05-01

Clouds (visible aggregations of minute droplets of water or tiny crystals of ice suspended in the air) affect the radiation budget of our planet by reflecting, absorbing and scattering solar radiation, and the re-emission of terrestrial radiation. They affect the weather and climate by positive or negative feedbacks. Many researchers have worked on the parameterization of clouds and their effects on the radiation budget. There is little information about ground-based approaches for continuous evaluation of cloud, such as cloud base height, cloud base temperature, and cloud coverage, at local and regional scales. This present article deals with the development of an algorithm for continuous (day and night) evaluation of cloud base temperature, cloud base height and percent of skies covered by cloud at local scale throughout the year. The Vaisala model CT-12K laser beam ceilometer is used at the Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) to measure the cloud base height and report the sky conditions on an hourly basis or at shorter intervals. This laser ceilometer is a fixed-type whose transmitter and receiver point straight up at the cloud (if any) base. It is unable to measure clouds that are not above the sensor. To report cloudiness at the local scale, many of these type of ceilometers are needed. This is not a perfect method for cloud measurement. A single cloud hanging overhead the sensor will cause overcast readings, whereas, a hole in the clouds could cause a clear reading to be reported. To overcome this problem, we have set up a ventilated radiation station at Logan-Cache airport, Utah, U.S.A., since 1995, which is equipped with one of the above-mentioned ceilometers. This radiation station (composed of pyranometers, pyrgeometers and net radiometer) provides continuous measurements of incoming and outgoing shortwave and longwave radiation and the net radiation throughout the year. We have also measured the surface temperature and pressure, the 2-m air temperature and humidity, precipitation, and the 3-m wind and direction at this station. Having the air temperature, moisture, and the measured cloudless incoming longwave (atmospheric) radiation during 1999 through 2004, based upon the ASOS and the algorithm data, we found the appropriate formula (among four reported approaches) for computation of the cloudless-skies atmospheric emissivity. Considering the additional longwave radiation captured by the facing-up pyrgeometer during the cloudy skies, coming from the cloud in the wave band which the gaseous emission lacks (from 8-13 ìm), we developed an algorithm which provides the continuous 20-min cloud information (cloud base height, cloud base temperature, and percent of skies covered by cloud) over the Cache Valley during day and night throughout the year. The comparisons between the ASOS and the algorithm data during the period of 8-12 June, 2004 are reported in this article. The proposed algorithm is a promising approach for evaluation of the cloud base temperature, cloud base height, and percent of skies covered by cloud at the local scale throughout the year. It also reports the comparison between model outputs and GOES 10 satellite images.

Impacts of ENSO events on cloud radiative effects in preindustrial conditions: Changes in cloud fraction and their dependence on interactive aerosol emissions and concentrations: IMPACT OF ENSO ON CLOUD RADIATIVE EFFECT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Yang; Russell, Lynn M.; Xu, Li

The impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on shortwave and longwave cloud radiative effects (CRESW and CRELW) and the underlying changes in cloud fraction as well as aerosol emissions, wet scavenging and transport are quantified using three 150-year simulations in preindustrial conditions by the CESM model. Compared to recent observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES), the model simulation successfully reproduced larger variations of CRESW over the tropical western and central Pacific, Indonesian regions, and the eastern Pacific Ocean, as well as large variations of CRELW located mainly within the tropics. The ENSO cycle ismore » found to dominate interannual variations of cloud radiative effects, especially over the tropics. Relative to those during La Niña events, simulated cooling (warming) effects from CRESW (CRELW) during El Niño events are stronger over the tropical western and central Pacific Ocean, with the largest difference exceeding 40 Wm–2 (30 Wm–2), with weaker effects of 10–30 Wm–2 over Indonesian regions and the subtropical Pacific Ocean. Sensitivity tests show that variations of cloud radiative effects are mainly driven by ENSO-related changes in cloud fraction. The variations in medium and high cloud fractions each account for about 20–50% of the interannual variations of CRESW over the tropics and almost all of the variations of CRELW between 60°S and 60°N. The variation of low cloud fraction contributes most interannual variations of CRESW over the mid-latitude oceans. Variations in natural aerosol concentrations considering emissions, wet scavenging and transport explained 10–30% of the interannual variations of both CRESW and CRELW over the tropical Pacific, Indonesian regions and the tropical Indian Ocean. Changes in wet scavenging of natural aerosol modulate the variations of cloud radiative effects. Because of increased (decreased) precipitation over the tropical western Pacific Ocean in El Niño (La Niña) events, increased (decreased) wet scavenging of natural aerosols dampens more than 4–6% of variations of cloud radiative effects averaged over the tropics. In contrast, increased surface winds cause feedbacks that increase sea spray emissions that enhance the variations by 3–4% averaged over the tropics.« less

Water vapor isotopic measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site on Graciosa Island, Azores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delp, J. M.; Galewsky, J.

2017-12-01

Stable isotopic measurements of water vapor can potentially constrain the processes that govern the formation of low-clouds and how their distribution may change as the climate warms. Using off-axis integrated cavity output spectroscopy, in-situ water vapor isotopic measurements will be collected for a period of one year (beginning August 2017) at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site in the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) located on Graciosa Island, Azores. The Azores location within the ENA is a prime setting for studying low-cloud processes. After correcting for humidity-dependent biases and normalizing the measurements to the VSMOW-SLAP scale, the measurements from the first several months of the water vapor isotopic analyzer's deployment will be compared to complementary datasets from the suite of instruments at the DOE site, including twice-daily soundings, aerosol instrumentation, and cloud radars, with the purpose of determining links between local stratocumulus and precipitation processes and their impact on the stable isotopic composition of atmospheric water vapor. The results of this study will potentially provide a new approach for linking field observations with climate models and may help better constrain the uncertainties associated with low-cloud feedbacks.

ARM Climate Research Facility Annual Report 2004

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voyles, J.

2004-12-31

Like a rock that slowly wears away beneath the pressure of a waterfall, planet earth?s climate is almost imperceptibly changing. Glaciers are getting smaller, droughts are lasting longer, and extreme weather events like fires, floods, and tornadoes are occurring with greater frequency. Why? Part of the answer is clouds and the amount of solar radiation they reflect or absorb. These two factors clouds and radiative transfer represent the greatest source of error and uncertainty in the current generation of general circulation models used for climate research and simulation. The U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 established an interagency programmore » within the Executive Office of the President to coordinate U.S. agency-sponsored scientific research designed to monitor, understand, and predict changes in the global environment. To address the need for new research on clouds and radiation, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) established the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. As part of the DOE?s overall Climate Change Science Program, a primary objective of the ARM Program is improved scientific understanding of the fundamental physics related to interactions between clouds and radiative feedback processes in the atmosphere.« less

Coastal Jets, Oceanic Upwelling, Mesoscale Eddies, and Clouds in the Southeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, X.; Wang, S.; Jiang, Q.; O'Neill, L. W.; Hodur, R.; Chen, S.; Martin, P.; Cummings, J. A.

2009-12-01

Coastal jets, oceanic upwelling, mesoscale eddies, and clouds in the Southeast Pacific (SEP) are studied using the two-way-coupled COAMPS/NCOM system with the NCODA for the ocean data assimilation. The coupled system was run for the period of the VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study (VOCALS) field campaign from 20 October to 30 November, 2008. The investigation of the feedback between the atmosphere and the ocean is focused on the periods of the strong and the weak coastal jets. During the strong coastal jet period, colder and drier air along the coast results in larger surface heat fluxes and increased boundary layer height. More extensive and organized clouds are generated in the strongly unstable conditions in the atmospheric boundary layer. The oceanic upwelling is stronger and the upwelled cold water extends further offshore. During the weak coastal jet period, the cyclonic and anti-cyclonic oceanic eddies propagate westward more significantly. The inertial oscillations induced by the variations of the wind stress also increase in strength with stronger phase shifts between the oscillations in the upper and the lower layers of the ocean. In addition, the model results from the coupled system were evaluated with available observations from the VOCALS field campaign.

Can Arctic sea-ice melt be explained by atmospheric meridional transports? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tjernstrom, M. K.; Graversen, R. G.

2010-12-01

The Arctic summer sea ice is melting away at an alarming rate, and it is now expected that an principally sea-ice free Arctic summer will occur much earlier than projected by the IPCC AR4 models. At the same time Arctic near-surface temperatures are rising at a rate much faster than the global average. The processes responsible for these changes are debated and many claim that local feedbacks, such as the surface albedo feedback, are the main culprits while other argue that remote effects, such as atmospheric circulation changes on synoptic and hemispheric scales, are the most important. We will explore the effects of the meridional transport by synoptic and larger scale atmospheric circulation on recent changes, using reanalysis data. It will be illustarated how this transport can contribute significant amounts of sensible heat, but also of atmospheric moisture such that local cloud feedbacks as well as the direct greenhouse effect of the water vapor contributes significantly to the surface energy balance over the Arctic polar cap.

Common Gamma-ray Glows above Thunderclouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, Nicole; Smith, David; Dwyer, Joseph; Hazelton, Bryna; Grefenstette, Brian; Lowell, Alex; Splitt, Michael; Lazarus, Steven; Rassoul, Hamid

2013-04-01

Gamma-ray glows are continuous, long duration gamma- and x-ray emission seen coming from thunderclouds. The Airborne for Energetic Lightning Emissions (ADELE) observed 12 gamma-ray glows during its summer 2009 flight campaign over the areas of Colorado and Florida in the United States. For these glows we shall present their spectra, relationship to lightning activity and how their duration and size changes as a function of distance. Gamma-ray glows follow the relativistic runaway electron avalanche (RREA) spectrum and have been previously measured from the ground and inside the cloud. ADELE measured most glows as it flew above the screening layer of the cloud. During the brightest glow on August 21, 2009, we can show that we are flying directly into a downward facing relativistic runaway avalanche, indicative of flying between the upper positive and negative screening layer of the cloud. In order to explain the brightness of this glow, RREA with an electric field approaching the limit for relativistic feedback must be occurring. Using all 12 glows, we show that lightning activity diminishes during the onset of the glow. Using this along with the fact that glows occur as the field approaches the level necessary for feedback, we attempt to distinguish between two possibilities: that glows are evidence that RREA with feedback, rather than lightning, is sometimes the primary channel for discharging the cloud, or else that the overall discharging is still controlled by lightning, with glows simply appearing during times when a subsidence of lightning allows the field to rise above the threshold for RREA.

Bjerknes Compensation in Meridional Heat Transport under Freshwater Forcing and the Role of Climate Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Qin

2017-04-01

Using a coupled Earth climate model, freshwater experiments are performed to study the Bjerknes compensation (BJC) between meridional atmosphere heat transport (AHT) and meridional ocean heat transport (OHT). Freshwater hosing in the North Atlantic weakens the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and thus reduces the northward OHT in the Atlantic significantly, leading to a cooling (warming) in surface layer in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. This results in an enhanced Hadley Cell and northward AHT. Meanwhile, the OHT in the Indo-Pacific is increased in response to the Hadley Cell change, partially offsetting the reduced OHT in the Atlantic. Two compensations occur here: compensation between the AHT and the Atlantic OHT, and that between the Indo-Pacific OHT and the Atlantic OHT. The AHT change compensates the OHT change very well in the extratropics, while the former overcompensates the latter in the tropics due to the Indo-Pacific change. The BJC can be understood from the viewpoint of large-scale circulation change. However, the intrinsic mechanism of BJC is related to the climate feedback of Earth system. Our coupled model experiments confirm that the occurrence of BJC is an intrinsic requirement of local energy balance, and local climate feedback determines the extent of BJC, consistent with previous theoretical results. Even during the transient period of climate change in the model, the BJC is well established when the ocean heat storage is slowly varying and its change is weaker than the net heat flux changes at the ocean surface and the top of the atmosphere. The BJC can be deduced from the local climate feedback. Under the freshwater forcing, the overcompensation in the tropics (undercompensation in the extratropics) is mainly caused by the positive longwave feedback related to cloud (negative longwave feedback related to surface temperature change). Different dominant feedbacks determine different BJC scenarios in different regions, which are in essence constrained by local energy balance.

Do Clouds Save the Great Barrier Reef? Satellite Imagery Elucidates the Cloud-SST Relationship at the Local Scale

PubMed Central

Leahy, Susannah M.; Kingsford, Michael J.; Steinberg, Craig R.

2013-01-01

Evidence of global climate change and rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is now well documented in the scientific literature. With corals already living close to their thermal maxima, increases in SSTs are of great concern for the survival of coral reefs. Cloud feedback processes may have the potential to constrain SSTs, serving to enforce an “ocean thermostat” and promoting the survival of coral reefs. In this study, it was hypothesized that cloud cover can affect summer SSTs in the tropics. Detailed direct and lagged relationships between cloud cover and SST across the central Great Barrier Reef (GBR) shelf were investigated using data from satellite imagery and in situ temperature and light loggers during two relatively hot summers (2005 and 2006) and two relatively cool summers (2007 and 2008). Across all study summers and shelf positions, SSTs exhibited distinct drops during periods of high cloud cover, and conversely, SST increases during periods of low cloud cover, with a three-day temporal lag between a change in cloud cover and a subsequent change in SST. Cloud cover alone was responsible for up to 32.1% of the variation in SSTs three days later. The relationship was strongest in both El Niño (2005) and La Niña (2008) study summers and at the inner-shelf position in those summers. SST effects on subsequent cloud cover were weaker and more variable among study summers, with rising SSTs explaining up to 21.6% of the increase in cloud cover three days later. This work quantifies the often observed cloud cooling effect on coral reefs. It highlights the importance of incorporating local-scale processes into bleaching forecasting models, and encourages the use of remote sensing imagery to value-add to coral bleaching field studies and to more accurately predict risks to coral reefs. PMID:23894649

Improved Intraseasonal Variability in the NASA GEOS AGCM with 2-moment Microphysics and a Shallow Cumulus Parameterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, Nathan; Barahona, Donifan; Achuthavarier, Deepthi

2017-01-01

Weather and climate models have long struggled to realistically simulate the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Here we present a significant improvement in MJO simulation in NASA's GEOS atmospheric model with the implementation of 2-moment microphysics and the UW shallow cumulus parameterization. Comparing ten-year runs (2007-2016) with the old (1mom) and updated (2mom+shlw) model physics, the updated model has increased intra-seasonal variance with increased coherence. Surface fluxes and OLR are found to vary more realistically with precipitation, and a moisture budget suggests that changes in rain reevaporation and the cloud longwave feedback help support heavy precipitation. Preliminary results also show improved MJO hindcast skill.

A High Definition View of AGN Feedback: Chandra Imaging of Nearby Seyfert Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Junfeng; Fabbiano, G.; Risaliti, G.; Elvis, M.; Karovska, M.; Zezas, A.; Mundell, C. G.

2010-03-01

To improve the physics of AGN feedback, it is crucial to evaluate the true role of outflows on galaxy evolution observationally. I will present new results from Chandra spectral imaging of nearby Seyfert galaxies, which offer unique opportunities to examine feedback in action in much greater detail than at high redshift. Exploiting Chandra's highest possible resolution, we are able to study structures in NGC 4151 on spatial scales of 0.5 arcsec (30 pc), showing an extended X-ray morphology overall consistent with the optical NLR. We find that most of the NLR clouds in NGC 4151 have [OIII] to soft X-ray ratio consistent with the values observed in NLRs of some Seyfert 2 galaxies, which indicates a uniform ionization parameter even at large radii. We examine various X-ray emission mechanisms of the radio jet and consider thermal emission from interaction between radio outflow and the NLR clouds the most probable origin for the X-ray emission associated with the jet.

Lightning Tracking Tool for Assessment of Total Cloud Lightning within AWIPS II

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burks, Jason E.; Stano, Geoffrey T.; Sperow, Ken

2014-01-01

Total lightning (intra-cloud and cloud-to-ground) has been widely researched and shown to be a valuable tool to aid real-time warning forecasters in the assessment of severe weather potential of convective storms. The trend of total lightning has been related to the strength of a storm's updraft. Therefore a rapid increase in total lightning signifies the strengthening of the parent thunderstorm. The assessment of severe weather potential occurs in a time limited environment and therefore constrains the use of total lightning. A tool has been developed at NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center to assist in quickly analyzing the total lightning signature of multiple storms. The development of this tool comes as a direct result of forecaster feedback from numerous assessments requesting a real-time display of the time series of total lightning. This tool also takes advantage of the new architecture available within the AWIPS II environment. SPoRT's lightning tracking tool has been tested in the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Program and significant changes have been made based on the feedback. In addition to the updates in response to the HWT assessment, the lightning tracking tool may also be extended to incorporate other requested displays, such as the intra-cloud to cloud-to-ground ratio as well as incorporate the lightning jump algorithm.

Uncertainty associated with convective wet removal of entrained aerosols in a global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croft, B.; Pierce, J. R.; Martin, R. V.; Hoose, C.; Lohmann, U.

2012-11-01

The uncertainties associated with the wet removal of aerosols entrained above convective cloud bases are investigated in a global aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) under a set of limiting assumptions for the wet removal of the entrained aerosols. The limiting assumptions for the wet removal of entrained aerosols are negligible scavenging and vigorous scavenging (either through activation, with size-dependent impaction scavenging, or with the prescribed fractions of the standard model). To facilitate this process-based study, an explicit representation of cloud-droplet-borne and ice-crystal-borne aerosol mass and number, for the purpose of wet removal, is introduced into the ECHAM5-HAM model. This replaces and is compared with the prescribed cloud-droplet-borne and ice-crystal-borne aerosol fraction scavenging scheme of the standard model. A 20% to 35% uncertainty in simulated global, annual mean aerosol mass burdens and optical depth (AOD) is attributed to different assumptions for the wet removal of aerosols entrained above convective cloud bases. Assumptions about the removal of aerosols entrained above convective cloud bases control modeled upper tropospheric aerosol concentrations by as much as one order of magnitude. Simulated aerosols entrained above convective cloud bases contribute 20% to 50% of modeled global, annual mean aerosol mass convective wet deposition (about 5% to 10% of the total dry and wet deposition), depending on the aerosol species, when including wet scavenging of those entrained aerosols (either by activation, size-dependent impaction, or with the prescribed fraction scheme). Among the simulations, the prescribed fraction and size-dependent impaction schemes yield the largest global, annual mean aerosol mass convective wet deposition (by about two-fold). However, the prescribed fraction scheme has more vigorous convective mixed-phase wet removal (by two to five-fold relative to the size-dependent impaction scheme) since nearly all entrained accumulation and coarse mode aerosols are assumed to be cloud-droplet borne or ice-crystal borne, and evaporation due to the Bergeron-Findeisen process is neglected. The simulated convective wet scavenging of entrained accumulation and coarse mode aerosols has feedbacks on new particle formation and the number of Aitken mode aerosols, which control stratiform and convective cloud droplet number concentrations and yield precipitation changes in the ECHAM5-HAM model. However, the geographic distribution of aerosol annual mean convective wet deposition change in the model is driven by changes to the assumptions regarding the scavenging of aerosols entrained above cloud bases rather than by precipitation changes, except for sea salt deposition in the tropics. Uncertainty in the seasonal, regional cycles of AOD due to assumptions about entrained aerosol wet scavenging is similar in magnitude to the estimated error in the AOD retrievals. The uncertainty in aerosol concentrations, burdens, and AOD attributed to different assumptions for the wet scavenging of aerosols entrained above convective cloud bases in a global model motivates the ongoing need to better understand and model the activation and impaction processes that aerosols undergo after entrainment into convective updrafts.

Aerosol nucleation and its role for clouds and Earth's radiative forcing in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazil, J.; Stier, P.; Zhang, K.; Quaas, J.; Kinne, S.; O'Donnell, D.; Rast, S.; Esch, M.; Ferrachat, S.; Lohmann, U.; Feichter, J.

2010-05-01

Nucleation from the gas phase is an important source of aerosol particles in the Earth's atmosphere, contributing to the number of cloud condensation nuclei, which form cloud droplets. We have implemented in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM a new scheme for neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid and water based on laboratory data, and nucleation of an organic compound and sulfuric acid using a parametrization of cluster activation based on field measurements. We give details of the implementation, compare results with observations, and investigate the role of the individual aerosol nucleation mechanisms for clouds and the Earth's radiative budget. The results of our simulations are most consistent with observations when neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid proceed throughout the troposphere and nucleation due to cluster activation is limited to the forested boundary layer. The globally averaged annual mean contributions of the individual nucleation processes to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation via the direct, semi-direct, indirect cloud-albedo and cloud-lifetime effects in our simulations are -1.15 W/m2 for charged H2SO4/H2O nucleation, -0.235 W/m2 for cluster activation, and -0.05 W/m2 for neutral H2SO4/H2O nucleation. The overall effect of nucleation is -2.55 W/m2, which exceeds the sum of the individual terms due to feedbacks and interactions in the model. Aerosol nucleation contributes over the oceans with -2.18 W/m2 to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation, compared to -0.37 W/m2 over land. We explain the higher effect of aerosol nucleation on Earth's radiative budget over the oceans with the larger area covered by ocean clouds, due to the larger contrast in albedo between clouds and the ocean surface compared to continents, and the larger susceptibility of pristine clouds owing to the saturation of effects. The large effect of charged nucleation in our simulations is not in contradiction with small effects seen in local measurements: over southern Finland, where cluster activation proceeds efficiently, we find that charged nucleation of sulfuric acid and water contributes on average less than 10% to ultrafine aerosol concentrations, in good agreement with observations.

Aerosol nucleation and its role for clouds and Earth's radiative forcing in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazil, J.; Stier, P.; Zhang, K.; Quaas, J.; Kinne, S.; O'Donnell, D.; Rast, S.; Esch, M.; Ferrachat, S.; Lohmann, U.; Feichter, J.

2010-11-01

Nucleation from the gas phase is an important source of aerosol particles in the Earth's atmosphere, contributing to the number of cloud condensation nuclei, which form cloud droplets. We have implemented in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM a new scheme for neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid and water based on laboratory data, and nucleation of an organic compound and sulfuric acid using a parametrization of cluster activation based on field measurements. We give details of the implementation, compare results with observations, and investigate the role of the individual aerosol nucleation mechanisms for clouds and the Earth's radiative forcing. The results of our simulations are most consistent with observations when neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid proceed throughout the troposphere and nucleation due to cluster activation is limited to the forested boundary layer. The globally averaged annual mean contributions of the individual nucleation processes to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation via the direct, semi-direct, indirect cloud-albedo and cloud-lifetime effects in our simulations are -1.15 W/m2 for charged H2SO4/H2O nucleation, -0.235 W/m2 for cluster activation, and -0.05 W/m2 for neutral H2SO4/H2O nucleation. The overall effect of nucleation is -2.55 W/m2, which exceeds the sum of the individual terms due to feedbacks and interactions in the model. Aerosol nucleation contributes over the oceans with -2.18 W/m2 to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation, compared to -0.37 W/m2 over land. We explain the higher effect of aerosol nucleation on Earth's radiative forcing over the oceans with the larger area covered by ocean clouds, due to the larger contrast in albedo between clouds and the ocean surface compared to continents, and the larger susceptibility of pristine clouds owing to the saturation of effects. The large effect of charged nucleation in our simulations is not in contradiction with small effects seen in local measurements: over southern Finland, where cluster activation proceeds efficiently, we find that charged nucleation of sulfuric acid and water contributes on average less than 10% to ultrafine aerosol concentrations, in good agreement with observations.

Sensitivity of summer ensembles of fledgling superparameterized U.S. mesoscale convective systems to cloud resolving model microphysics and grid configuration

DOE PAGES

Elliott, Elizabeth J.; Yu, Sungduk; Kooperman, Gabriel J.; ...

2016-05-01

The sensitivities of simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central U.S. to microphysics and grid configuration are evaluated here in a global climate model (GCM) that also permits global-scale feedbacks and variability. Since conventional GCMs do not simulate MCSs, studying their sensitivities in a global framework useful for climate change simulations has not previously been possible. To date, MCS sensitivity experiments have relied on controlled cloud resolving model (CRM) studies with limited domains, which avoid internal variability and neglect feedbacks between local convection and larger-scale dynamics. However, recent work with superparameterized (SP) GCMs has shown that eastward propagating MCS-likemore » events are captured when embedded CRMs replace convective parameterizations. This study uses a SP version of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (SP-CAM5) to evaluate MCS sensitivities, applying an objective empirical orthogonal function algorithm to identify MCS-like events, and harmonizing composite storms to account for seasonal and spatial heterogeneity. A five-summer control simulation is used to assess the magnitude of internal and interannual variability relative to 10 sensitivity experiments with varied CRM parameters, including ice fall speed, one-moment and two-moment microphysics, and grid spacing. MCS sensitivities were found to be subtle with respect to internal variability, and indicate that ensembles of over 100 storms may be necessary to detect robust differences in SP-GCMs. Furthermore, these results emphasize that the properties of MCSs can vary widely across individual events, and improving their representation in global simulations with significant internal variability may require comparison to long (multidecadal) time series of observed events rather than single season field campaigns.« less

High cloud variations with surface temperature from 2002 to 2015: Contributions to atmospheric radiative cooling rate and precipitation changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Run; Liou, Kuo-Nan; Su, Hui; Gu, Yu; Zhao, Bin; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Liu, Shaw Chen

2017-05-01

The global mean precipitation is largely constrained by atmospheric radiative cooling rates (Qr), which are sensitive to changes in high cloud fraction. We investigate variations of high cloud fraction with surface temperature (Ts) from July 2002 to June 2015 and compute their radiative effects on Qr using the Fu-Liou-Gu plane-parallel radiation model. We find that the tropical mean (30°S-30°N) high cloud fraction decreases with increasing Ts at a rate of about -1.0 ± 0.34% K-1 from 2002 to 2015, which leads to an enhanced atmospheric cooling around 0.86 W m-2 K-1. On the other hand, the northern midlatitudes (30°N-60°N) high cloud fraction increases with surface warming at a rate of 1.85 ± 0.65% K-1 and the near-global mean (60°S-60°N) high cloud fraction shows a statistically insignificant decreasing trend with increasing Ts over the analysis period. Dividing high clouds into cirrus, cirrostratus, and deep convective clouds, we find that cirrus cloud fraction increases with surface warming at a rate of 0.32 ± 0.11% K-1 (0.01 ± 0.17% K-1) for the near-global mean (tropical mean), while cirrostratus and deep convective clouds decrease with surface warming at a rate of -0.02 ± 0.18% K-1 and -0.33 ± 0.18% K-1 for the near-global mean and -0.64 ± 0.23% K-1 and -0.37 ± 0.13% K-1 for the tropical mean, respectively. High cloud fraction response to feedback to Ts accounts for approximately 1.9 ± 0.7% and 16.0 ± 6.1% of the increase in precipitation per unit surface warming over the period of 2002-2015 for the near-global mean and the tropical mean, respectively.

Mesoscale Convective Systems in SCSMEX: Simulated by a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, I.; Lau, W.; Shie, C.-L.; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation (RELACS) System is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes, in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water and energy cycles in Indo-China/ South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-C loud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. PLACE allows for the effects of vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are included. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate the atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. RELACS has been used to simulate the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1986, 1997 and 1998. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences have been performed. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. CPSs can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. RELACS has also been used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during 1998. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. Also, the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model which allows for realistic moist processes as well as explicit interactions between cloud and radiation, and cloud and surface processes will be used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1998. The GCE model also includes the same PLACE and radiation scheme used in the RELACS. A detailed comparison between the results from the GCE model and RELACS will be performed.

Can neutrino decay-driven mock gravity save hot dark matter?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Splinter, Randall J.; Melott, Adrian L.

1992-01-01

The radiative decay of a 30 eV neutrino with a lifetime of order 10 exp 23-24 s has recently been shown to yield a satisfactory explanation of a wide range of problems in astrophysics. In this paper, it is investigated whether the photon flux generated by the radiative decay of a massive neutrino is capable of generating sufficient radiation pressure to cause a 'mock gravitational' collapse of primordial hydrogen clouds. It is shown that when using neutral hydrogen as a source of opacity for mock gravity the time scale for mock gravitational collapse is significantly larger than the expansion time scale. Thus, the model fails as a source of galactic seed perturbations. Furthermore, it is argued that nonlinear feedback mechanisms will be unable to increase the collapse rate of the cloud under mock gravity.

Atmospheric Diabatic Heating in Different Weather States and the General Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, William B.; Zhang, Yuanchong; Tselioudis, George

2016-01-01

Analysis of multiple global satellite products identifies distinctive weather states of the atmosphere from the mesoscale pattern of cloud properties and quantifies the associated diabatic heating/cooling by radiative flux divergence, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux. The results show that the forcing for the atmospheric general circulation is a very dynamic process, varying strongly at weather space-time scales, comprising relatively infrequent, strong heating events by ''stormy'' weather and more nearly continuous, weak cooling by ''fair'' weather. Such behavior undercuts the value of analyses of time-averaged energy exchanges in observations or numerical models. It is proposed that an analysis of the joint time-related variations of the global weather states and the general circulation on weather space-time scales might be used to establish useful ''feedback like'' relationships between cloud processes and the large-scale circulation.

Initiation Processes of the Tropical Intraseasonal Variability Simulated in an Aqua-Planet Experiment: What is the Intrinsic Mechanism for MJO Onset?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takasuka, Daisuke; Satoh, Masaki; Miyakawa, Tomoki; Miura, Hiroaki

2018-04-01

To understand the intrinsic onset mechanism of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), we simulated a set of initiation processes of MJO-like disturbances in 10 year aqua-planet experiments using a global atmospheric model with a 56 km horizontal mesh and an explicit cloud scheme. Under a condition with a zonally nonuniform sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropics, we reproduced MJO-like disturbances over the western warm pool region. The lagged-composite analysis of detected MJO-like disturbances clarifies the time sequence of three-dimensional dynamic and moisture fields prior to the onset. We found that midtropospheric moistening, a condition that is favorable for deep convection, is particularly obvious in the initiation region 5-9 days before onset. The moistening is caused by two-dimensional horizontal advection due to cross-equatorial shallow circulations associated with mixed Rossby-gravity waves, as well as anomalous poleward flows of a negative Rossby response to suppressed convection. When the midtroposphere is sufficiently moistened, lower tropospheric signals of circumnavigating Kelvin waves trigger active convection. The surface latent heat flux (LHF) feedback contributes to the initial stages of convective organization, while the cloud-radiation feedback contributes to later stages. Sensitivity experiments suggest that circumnavigating Kelvin waves regulate the period of MJO-like disturbances because of efficient convective triggering and that the LHF feedback contributes to rapid convective organization. However, the experiments also reveal that both conditions are not necessary for the existence of MJO-like disturbances. Implications for the relevance of these mechanisms for MJO onset are also discussed.

On unravelling mechanism of interplay between cloud and large scale circulation: a grey area in climate science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De, S.; Agarwal, N. K.; Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Sahai, A. K.

2018-04-01

The interaction between cloud and large scale circulation is much less explored area in climate science. Unfolding the mechanism of coupling between these two parameters is imperative for improved simulation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and to reduce imprecision in climate sensitivity of global climate model. This work has made an effort to explore this mechanism with CFSv2 climate model experiments whose cloud has been modified by changing the critical relative humidity (CRH) profile of model during ISM. Study reveals that the variable CRH in CFSv2 has improved the nonlinear interactions between high and low frequency oscillations in wind field (revealed as internal dynamics of monsoon) and modulates realistically the spatial distribution of interactions over Indian landmass during the contrasting monsoon season compared to the existing CRH profile of CFSv2. The lower tropospheric wind error energy in the variable CRH simulation of CFSv2 appears to be minimum due to the reduced nonlinear convergence of error to the planetary scale range from long and synoptic scales (another facet of internal dynamics) compared to as observed from other CRH experiments in normal and deficient monsoons. Hence, the interplay between cloud and large scale circulation through CRH may be manifested as a change in internal dynamics of ISM revealed from scale interactive quasi-linear and nonlinear kinetic energy exchanges in frequency as well as in wavenumber domain during the monsoon period that eventually modify the internal variance of CFSv2 model. Conversely, the reduced wind bias and proper modulation of spatial distribution of scale interaction between the synoptic and low frequency oscillations improve the eastward and northward extent of water vapour flux over Indian landmass that in turn give feedback to the realistic simulation of cloud condensates attributing improved ISM rainfall in CFSv2.

Multi-year application of WRF-CAM5 over East Asia-Part II: Interannual variability, trend analysis, and aerosol indirect effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yang; Wang, Kai; He, Jian

2017-09-01

Following a comprehensive evaluation of WRF-CAM5 in Part I, Part II describes analyses of interannual variability, multi-year variation trends, and the direct, indirect, and total effects of anthropogenic aerosols. The interannual variations of chemical column and surface concentrations, and ozone (O3)/particulate matter (PM) indicators are strongly correlated to anthropogenic emission changes. Despite model biases, the model captures well the observed interannual variations of temperature at 2-m, cloud fraction, shortwave cloud forcing, downwelling shortwave radiation, cloud droplet number concentration, column O3, and column formaldehyde (HCHO) for the whole domain. While the model reproduces the volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited regimes of O3 chemistry at sites in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and from the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET) and the degree of sulfate neutralization at the EANET sites, it has limited capability in capturing the interannual variations of the ratio of O3 and nitrogen dioxide (O3/NO2) and PM chemical regime indicators, due to uncertainties in the emissions of precursors for O3 and secondary PM, the model assumption for ammonium bisulfate (NH4HSO4) as well as lack of gas/particle partitioning of total ammonia and total nitrate. While the variation trends in multi-year periods in aerosol optical depth and column concentrations of carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and NO2 are mainly caused by anthropogenic emissions, those of major meteorological and cloud variables partly reflect feedbacks of chemistry to meteorological variables. The impacts of anthropogenic aerosol indirect effects either dominate or play an important role in the aerosol total effects for most cloud and chemical predictions, whereas anthropogenic aerosol direct effects influence most meteorological and radiation variables. The direct, indirect, and total effects of anthropogenic aerosols exhibit a strong interannual variability in 2001, 2006, and 2011.

Life in the clouds: are tropical montane cloud forests responding to changes in climate?

PubMed

Hu, Jia; Riveros-Iregui, Diego A

2016-04-01

The humid tropics represent only one example of the many places worldwide where anthropogenic disturbance and climate change are quickly affecting the feedbacks between water and trees. In this article, we address the need for a more long-term perspective on the effects of climate change on tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) in order to fully assess the combined vulnerability and long-term response of tropical trees to changes in precipitation regimes, including cloud immersion. We first review the ecophysiological benefits that cloud water interception offers to trees in TMCF and then examine current climatological evidence that suggests changes in cloud base height and impending changes in cloud immersion for TMCF. Finally, we propose an experimental approach to examine the long-term dynamics of tropical trees in TMCF in response to environmental conditions on decade-to-century time scales. This information is important to assess the vulnerability and long-term response of TMCF to changes in cloud cover and fog frequency and duration.

Resolving the substructure of molecular clouds in the LMC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Tony; Hughes, Annie; Tokuda, Kazuki; Indebetouw, Remy; Wojciechowski, Evan; Bandurski, Jeffrey; MC3 Collaboration

2018-01-01

We present recent wide-field CO and 13CO mapping of giant molecular clouds in the Large Magellanic Cloud with ALMA. Our sample exhibits diverse star-formation properties, and reveals comparably diverse molecular cloud properties including surface density and velocity dispersion at a given scale. We first present the results of a recent study comparing two GMCs at the extreme ends of the star formation activity spectrum. Our quiescent cloud exhibits 10 times lower surface density and 5 times lower velocity dispersion than the active 30 Doradus cloud, yet in both clouds we find a wide range of line widths at the smallest resolved scales, spanning nearly the full range of line widths seen at all scales. This suggests an important role for feedback on sub-parsec scales, while the energetics on larger scales are dominated by clump-to-clump relative velocities. We then extend our analysis to four additional clouds that exhibit intermediate levels of star formation activity.

Sensor-Web Operations Explorer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meemong, Lee; Miller, Charles; Bowman, Kevin; Weidner, Richard

2008-01-01

Understanding the atmospheric state and its impact on air quality requires observations of trace gases, aerosols, clouds, and physical parameters across temporal and spatial scales that range from minutes to days and from meters to more than 10,000 kilometers. Observations include continuous local monitoring for particle formation; field campaigns for emissions, local transport, and chemistry; and periodic global measurements for continental transport and chemistry. Understanding includes global data assimilation framework capable of hierarchical coupling, dynamic integration of chemical data and atmospheric models, and feedback loops between models and observations. The objective of the sensor-web system is to observe trace gases, aerosols, clouds, and physical parameters, an integrated observation infrastructure composed of space-borne, air-borne, and in-situ sensors will be simulated based on their measurement physics properties. The objective of the sensor-web operation is to optimally plan for heterogeneous multiple sensors, the sampling strategies will be explored and science impact will be analyzed based on comprehensive modeling of atmospheric phenomena including convection, transport, and chemical process. Topics include system architecture, software architecture, hardware architecture, process flow, technology infusion, challenges, and future direction.

Kameleon Live: An Interactive Cloud Based Analysis and Visualization Platform for Space Weather Researchers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pembroke, A. D.; Colbert, J. A.

2015-12-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) provides hosting for many of the simulations used by the space weather community of scientists, educators, and forecasters. CCMC users may submit model runs through the Runs on Request system, which produces static visualizations of model output in the browser, while further analysis may be performed off-line via Kameleon, CCMC's cross-language access and interpolation library. Off-line analysis may be suitable for power-users, but storage and coding requirements present a barrier to entry for non-experts. Moreover, a lack of a consistent framework for analysis hinders reproducibility of scientific findings. To that end, we have developed Kameleon Live, a cloud based interactive analysis and visualization platform. Kameleon Live allows users to create scientific studies built around selected runs from the Runs on Request database, perform analysis on those runs, collaborate with other users, and disseminate their findings among the space weather community. In addition to showcasing these novel collaborative analysis features, we invite feedback from CCMC users as we seek to advance and improve on the new platform.

Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmospheric Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: Comparison of Climate Model Simulations to Observed Responses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan; Marshall, Susan; Oglesby, Robert; Roads, John; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This paper focuses on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. While this natural perturbation to climate is quite distinct from possible anthropogenic changes in climate, adjustments in the tropical water and energy budgets during ENSO may give insight into feedback processes involving water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). In a companion paper we have presented observational analyses, based principally on space-based measurements which document systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. Here we analyze several contemporary climate models run with observed SSTs over recent decades and compare SST-induced changes in radiation, precipitation, evaporation, and energy transport to observational results. Among these are the NASA / NCAR Finite Volume Model, the NCAR Community Climate Model, the NCEP Global Spectral Model, and the NASA NSIPP Model. Key disagreements between model and observational results noted in the recent literature are shown to be due predominantly to observational shortcomings. A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data reveals errors in the SST surface longwave emission due to biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative heating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 W/sq m per K of SST change. Model results agree reasonably well with this estimate of sensitivity. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. There remain, however, significant quantitative uncertainties in cloud forcing changes in the models as compared to observations. These differences are examined in relationship to model convection and cloud parameterizations Analysis of the possible sampling and measurement errors compared to systematic model errors is also presented.

Fast Molecular Cloud Destruction Requires Fast Cloud Formation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mac Low, Mordecai-Mark; Burkert, Andreas; Ibáñez-Mejía, Juan C., E-mail: mordecai@amnh.org, E-mail: burkert@usm.lmu.de, E-mail: ibanez@ph1.uni-koeln.de

A large fraction of the gas in the Galaxy is cold, dense, and molecular. If all this gas collapsed under the influence of gravity and formed stars in a local free-fall time, the star formation rate in the Galaxy would exceed that observed by more than an order of magnitude. Other star-forming galaxies behave similarly. Yet, observations and simulations both suggest that the molecular gas is indeed gravitationally collapsing, albeit hierarchically. Prompt stellar feedback offers a potential solution to the low observed star formation rate if it quickly disrupts star-forming clouds during gravitational collapse. However, this requires that molecular cloudsmore » must be short-lived objects, raising the question of how so much gas can be observed in the molecular phase. This can occur only if molecular clouds form as quickly as they are destroyed, maintaining a global equilibrium fraction of dense gas. We therefore examine cloud formation timescales. We first demonstrate that supernova and superbubble sweeping cannot produce dense gas at the rate required to match the cloud destruction rate. On the other hand, Toomre gravitational instability can reach the required production rate. We thus argue that, although dense, star-forming gas may last only around a single global free-fall time; the dense gas in star-forming galaxies can globally exist in a state of dynamic equilibrium between formation by gravitational instability and disruption by stellar feedback. At redshift z ≳ 2, the Toomre instability timescale decreases, resulting in a prediction of higher molecular gas fractions at early times, in agreement with the observations.« less

Arctic PBL Cloud Height and Motion Retrievals from MISR and MINX

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Dong L.

2012-01-01

How Arctic clouds respond and feedback to sea ice loss is key to understanding of the rapid climate change seen in the polar region. As more open water becomes available in the Arctic Ocean, cold air outbreaks (aka. off-ice flow from polar lows) produce a vast sheet of roll clouds in the planetary boundary layer (PBl). The cold air temperature and wind velocity are the critical parameters to determine and understand the PBl structure formed under these roll clouds. It has been challenging for nadir visible/IR sensors to detect Arctic clouds due to lack of contrast between clouds and snowy/icy surfaces. In addition) PBl temperature inversion creates a further problem for IR sensors to relate cloud top temperature to cloud top height. Here we explore a new method with the Multiangle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) instrument to measure cloud height and motion over the Arctic Ocean. Employing a stereoscopic-technique, MISR is able to measure cloud top height accurately and distinguish between clouds and snowy/icy surfaces with the measured height. We will use the MISR INteractive eXplorer (MINX) to quantify roll cloud dynamics during cold-air outbreak events and characterize PBl structures over water and over sea ice.

Attributing Contributions of Climate Feedbacks to the Seasonal Cycle of Surface Warming due to CO2 Increase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sejas, S.; Cai, M.

2012-12-01

Surfing warming due to CO2 doubling is a robust feature of coupled general circulation models (GCM), as noted in the IPCC AR4 assessment report. In this study, the contributions of different climate feedbacks to the magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonality of the surface warming is examined using data from NCAR's CCSM4. In particular, a focus is placed on polar regions to see which feedbacks play a role in polar amplification and its seasonal pattern. A new climate feedback analysis method is used to isolate the surface warming or cooling contributions of both radiative and non-radiative (dynamical) climate feedbacks to the total (actual) surface temperature change given by the CCSM4. These contributions (or partial surface temperature changes) are additive and their total is approximately equal to the actual surface temperature change. What is found is that the effects of CO2 doubling alone warms the surface throughout with a maximum in polar regions, which indicates the CO2 forcing alone has a degree of polar warming amplification. Water vapor feedback is a positive feedback throughout but is most responsible for the surface warming found in the tropics. Polar warming amplification is found to be strongest away from summer (especially in NH), which is primarily caused by a positive feedback due to cloud feedbacks but with the surface temperature change due to the CO2 forcing alone and the ocean dynamics and storage feedback also playing an important role. Contrary to popular belief, surface albedo feedback (SAF) does not account for much of the polar amplification. SAF tries to amplify polar warming, but in summer. No major polar amplification is seen in summer for the actual surface temperature, so SAF is not the feedback responsible for polar amplification. This is actually a consequence of the ocean dynamics and storage feedback, which negates the effects of SAF to a large degree.

A new chemistry option in WRF-Chem v. 3.4 for the simulation of direct and indirect aerosol effects using VBS: evaluation against IMPACT-EUCAARI data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuccella, P.; Curci, G.; Grell, G. A.; Visconti, G.; Crumeyrolle, S.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Mensah, A. A.

2015-09-01

A parameterization for secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production based on the volatility basis set (VBS) approach has been coupled with microphysics and radiative schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model. The new chemistry option called "RACM-MADE-VBS-AQCHEM" was evaluated on a cloud resolving scale against ground-based and aircraft measurements collected during the IMPACT-EUCAARI (Intensive Cloud Aerosol Measurement Campaign - European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air quality interaction) campaign, and complemented with satellite data from MODIS. The day-to-day variability and the diurnal cycle of ozone (O3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) at the surface are captured by the model. Surface aerosol mass concentrations of sulfate (SO4), nitrate (NO3), ammonium (NH4), and organic matter (OM) are simulated with correlations larger than 0.55. WRF-Chem captures the vertical profile of the aerosol mass concentration in both the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and free troposphere (FT) as a function of the synoptic condition, but the model does not capture the full range of the measured concentrations. Predicted OM concentration is at the lower end of the observed mass concentrations. The bias may be attributable to the missing aqueous chemistry processes of organic compounds and to uncertainties in meteorological fields. A key role could be played by assumptions on the VBS approach such as the SOA formation pathways, oxidation rate, and dry deposition velocity of organic condensable vapours. Another source of error in simulating SOA is the uncertainties in the anthropogenic emissions of primary organic carbon. Aerosol particle number concentration (condensation nuclei, CN) is overestimated by a factor of 1.4 and 1.7 within the PBL and FT, respectively. Model bias is most likely attributable to the uncertainties of primary particle emissions (mostly in the PBL) and to the nucleation rate. Simulated cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are also overestimated, but the bias is more contained with respect to that of CN. The CCN efficiency, which is a characterization of the ability of aerosol particles to nucleate cloud droplets, is underestimated by a factor of 1.5 and 3.8 in the PBL and FT, respectively. The comparison with MODIS data shows that the model overestimates the aerosol optical thickness (AOT). The domain averages (for 1 day) are 0.38 ± 0.12 and 0.42 ± 0.10 for MODIS and WRF-Chem data, respectively. The droplet effective radius (Re) in liquid-phase clouds is underestimated by a factor of 1.5; the cloud liquid water path (LWP) is overestimated by a factor of 1.1-1.6. The consequence is the overestimation of average liquid cloud optical thickness (COT) from a few percent up to 42 %. The predicted cloud water path (CWP) in all phases displays a bias in the range +41-80 %, whereas the bias of COT is about 15 %. In sensitivity tests where we excluded SOA, the skills of the model in reproducing the observed patterns and average values of the microphysical and optical properties of liquid and all phase clouds decreases. Moreover, the run without SOA (NOSOA) shows convective clouds with an enhanced content of liquid and frozen hydrometers, and stronger updrafts and downdrafts. Considering that the previous version of WRF-Chem coupled with a modal aerosol module predicted very low SOA content (secondary organic aerosol model (SORGAM) mechanism) the new proposed option may lead to a better characterization of aerosol-cloud feedbacks.

Air pollution control and decreasing new particle formation lead to strong climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makkonen, R.; Asmi, A.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Boy, M.; Arneth, A.; Hari, P.; Kulmala, M.

2012-02-01

The number concentration of cloud droplets determines several climatically relevant cloud properties. A major cause for the high uncertainty in the indirect aerosol forcing is the availability of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), which in turn is highly sensitive to atmospheric new particle formation. Here we present the effect of new particle formation on anthropogenic aerosol forcing in present-day (year 2000) and future (year 2100) conditions. The present-day total aerosol forcing is increased from -1.0 W m-2 to -1.6 W m-2 when nucleation is introduced into the model. Nucleation doubles the change in aerosol forcing between years 2000 and 2100, from +0.6 W m-2 to +1.4 W m-2. Two climate feedbacks are studied, resulting in additional negative forcings of -0.1 W m-2 (+10% DMS emissions in year 2100) and -0.5 W m-2 (+50% BVOC emissions in year 2100). With the total aerosol forcing diminishing in response to air pollution control measures taking effect, warming from increased greenhouse gas concentrations can potentially increase at a very rapid rate.

The influence of water table depth and the free atmospheric state on convective rainfall predisposition

DOE PAGES

Bonetti, Sara; Manoli, Gabriele; Domec, Jean-Christophe; ...

2015-03-16

Here, we report a mechanistic model for the soil-plant system is coupled to a conventional slab representation of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) to explore the role of groundwater table (WT) variations and free atmospheric (FA) states on convective rainfall predisposition (CRP) at a Loblolly pine plantation site situated in the lower coastal plain of North Carolina. Predisposition is quantified using the crossing between modeled lifting condensation level (LCL) and convectively grown ABL depth. The LCL-ABL depth crossing is necessary for air saturation but not sufficient for cloud formation and subsequent convective rainfall occurrence. However, such crossing forms the mainmore » template for which all subsequent dynamical processes regulating the formation (or suppression) of convective rainfall operate on. If the feedback between surface fluxes and FA conditions is neglected, a reduction in latent heat flux associated with reduced WT levels is shown to enhance the ABL-LCL crossing probability. When the soil-plant system is fully coupled with ABL dynamics thereby allowing feedback with ABL temperature and humidity, FA states remain the leading control on CRP. However, vegetation water stress plays a role in controlling ABL-LCL crossing when the humidity supply by the FA is within an intermediate range of values. When FA humidity supply is low, cloud formation is suppressed independent of surface latent heat flux. Similarly, when FA moisture supply is high, cloud formation can occur independent of surface latent heat flux. In an intermediate regime of FA moisture supply, the surface latent heat flux controlled by soil water availability can supplement (or suppress) the necessary water vapor leading to reduced LCL and subsequent ABL-LCL crossing. Lastly, it is shown that this intermediate state corresponds to FA values around the mode in observed humidity lapse rates γ w (between -2.5 × 10 -6 and -1.5 × 10 -6 kg kg -1m -1), suggesting that vegetation water uptake may be controlling CRP at the study site.« less

Characterization of AVHRR global cloud detection sensitivity based on CALIPSO-CALIOP cloud optical thickness information: demonstration of results based on the CM SAF CLARA-A2 climate data record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karlsson, Karl-Göran; Håkansson, Nina

2018-02-01

The sensitivity in detecting thin clouds of the cloud screening method being used in the CM SAF cloud, albedo and surface radiation data set from AVHRR data (CLARA-A2) cloud climate data record (CDR) has been evaluated using cloud information from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) onboard the CALIPSO satellite. The sensitivity, including its global variation, has been studied based on collocations of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and CALIOP measurements over a 10-year period (2006-2015). The cloud detection sensitivity has been defined as the minimum cloud optical thickness for which 50 % of clouds could be detected, with the global average sensitivity estimated to be 0.225. After using this value to reduce the CALIOP cloud mask (i.e. clouds with optical thickness below this threshold were interpreted as cloud-free cases), cloudiness results were found to be basically unbiased over most of the globe except over the polar regions where a considerable underestimation of cloudiness could be seen during the polar winter. The overall probability of detecting clouds in the polar winter could be as low as 50 % over the highest and coldest parts of Greenland and Antarctica, showing that a large fraction of optically thick clouds also remains undetected here. The study included an in-depth analysis of the probability of detecting a cloud as a function of the vertically integrated cloud optical thickness as well as of the cloud's geographical position. Best results were achieved over oceanic surfaces at mid- to high latitudes where at least 50 % of all clouds with an optical thickness down to a value of 0.075 were detected. Corresponding cloud detection sensitivities over land surfaces outside of the polar regions were generally larger than 0.2 with maximum values of approximately 0.5 over the Sahara and the Arabian Peninsula. For polar land surfaces the values were close to 1 or higher with maximum values of 4.5 for the parts with the highest altitudes over Greenland and Antarctica. It is suggested to quantify the detection performance of other CDRs in terms of a sensitivity threshold of cloud optical thickness, which can be estimated using active lidar observations. Validation results are proposed to be used in Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulation Package (COSP) simulators for cloud detection characterization of various cloud CDRs from passive imagery.

When feedback fails: the scaling and saturation of star formation efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grudić, Michael Y.; Hopkins, Philip F.; Faucher-Giguère, Claude-André; Quataert, Eliot; Murray, Norman; Kereš, Dušan

2018-04-01

We present a suite of 3D multiphysics MHD simulations following star formation in isolated turbulent molecular gas discs ranging from 5 to 500 parsecs in radius. These simulations are designed to survey the range of surface densities between those typical of Milky Way giant molecular clouds (GMCs) ({˜ } 10^2 {M_{\\odot } pc^{-2}}) and extreme ultraluminous infrared galaxy environments ({˜ } 10^4 {M_{\\odot } pc^{-2}}) so as to map out the scaling of the cloud-scale star formation efficiency (SFE) between these two regimes. The simulations include prescriptions for supernova, stellar wind, and radiative feedback, which we find to be essential in determining both the instantaneous per-freefall (ɛff) and integrated (ɛint) star formation efficiencies. In all simulations, the gas discs form stars until a critical stellar surface density has been reached and the remaining gas is blown out by stellar feedback. We find that surface density is a good predictor of ɛint, as suggested by analytic force balance arguments from previous works. SFE eventually saturates to ˜1 at high surface density. We also find a proportional relationship between ɛff and ɛint, implying that star formation is feedback-moderated even over very short time-scales in isolated clouds. These results have implications for star formation in galactic discs, the nature and fate of nuclear starbursts, and the formation of bound star clusters. The scaling of ɛff with surface density is not consistent with the notion that ɛff is always ˜ 1 per cent on the scale of GMCs, but our predictions recover the ˜ 1 per cent value for GMC parameters similar to those found in spiral galaxies, including our own.

The Relationship Between Surface Temperature Anomaly Time Series and those of OLR, Water Vapor, and Cloud Cover as Observed Using Nine Years of AIRS Version-5 Level-3 Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula; Iredell, Lena

2011-01-01

Outline: (1) Comparison of AIRS and CERES anomaly time series of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and OLR(sub CLR), i.e. Clear Sky OLR (2) Explanation of recent decreases in global and tropical mean values of OLR (3) AIRS "Short-term" Longwave Cloud Radiative Feedback -- A new product

Relativistic jet feedback - II. Relationship to gigahertz peak spectrum and compact steep spectrum radio galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bicknell, Geoffrey V.; Mukherjee, Dipanjan; Wagner, Alexander Y.; Sutherland, Ralph S.; Nesvadba, Nicole P. H.

2018-04-01

We propose that Gigahertz Peak Spectrum (GPS) and Compact Steep Spectrum (CSS) radio sources are the signposts of relativistic jet feedback in evolving galaxies. Our simulations of relativistic jets interacting with a warm, inhomogeneous medium, utilizing cloud densities and velocity dispersions in the range derived from optical observations, show that free-free absorption can account for the ˜ GHz peak frequencies and low-frequency power laws inferred from the radio observations. These new computational models replace a power-law model for the free-free optical depth a more fundamental model involving disrupted log-normal distributions of warm gas. One feature of our new models is that at early stages, the low-frequency spectrum is steep but progressively flattens as a result of a broader distribution of optical depths, suggesting that the steep low-frequency spectra discovered by Callingham et al. may possibly be attributed to young sources. We also investigate the inverse correlation between peak frequency and size and find that the initial location on this correlation is determined by the average density of the warm ISM. The simulated sources track this correlation initially but eventually fall below it, indicating the need for a more extended ISM than presently modelled. GPS and CSS sources can potentially provide new insights into the phenomenon of AGN feedback since their peak frequencies and spectra are indicative of the density, turbulent structure, and distribution of gas in the host galaxy.

Impact of Lyman alpha pressure on metal-poor dwarf galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimm, Taysun; Haehnelt, Martin; Blaizot, Jérémy; Katz, Harley; Michel-Dansac, Léo; Garel, Thibault; Rosdahl, Joakim; Teyssier, Romain

2018-04-01

Understanding the origin of strong galactic outflows and the suppression of star formation in dwarf galaxies is a key problem in galaxy formation. Using a set of radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of an isolated dwarf galaxy embedded in a 1010 M⊙ halo, we show that the momentum transferred from resonantly scattered Lyman-α (Lyα) photons is an important source of stellar feedback which can shape the evolution of galaxies. We find that Lyα feedback suppresses star formation by a factor of two in metal-poor galaxies by regulating the dynamics of star-forming clouds before the onset of supernova explosions (SNe). This is possible because each Lyα photon resonantly scatters and imparts ˜10-300 times greater momentum than in the single scattering limit. Consequently, the number of star clusters predicted in the simulations is reduced by a factor of ˜5, compared to the model without the early feedback. More importantly, we find that galactic outflows become weaker in the presence of strong Lyα radiation feedback, as star formation and associated SNe become less bursty. We also examine a model in which radiation field is arbitrarily enhanced by a factor of up to 10, and reach the same conclusion. The typical mass-loading factors in our metal-poor dwarf system are estimated to be ˜5-10 near the mid-plane, while it is reduced to ˜1 at larger radii. Finally, we find that the escape of ionizing radiation and hence the reionization history of the Universe is unlikely to be strongly affected by Lyα feedback.

Climatic Implications of the Observed Temperature Dependence of the Liquid Water Path of Low Clouds in the Southern Great Plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DelGenio, Anthony

1999-01-01

Satellite observations of low-level clouds have challenged the assumption that adiabatic liquid water content combined with constant physical thickness will lead to a negative cloud optics feedback in a decadal climate change. We explore the reasons for the satellite results using four years of surface remote sensing data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Cloud and Radiation Testbed site in the Southern Great Plains of the United States. We find that low cloud liquid water path is approximately invariant with temperature in winter but decreases strongly with temperature in summer, consistent with the satellite inferences at this latitude. This behavior occurs because liquid water content shows no detectable temperature dependence while cloud physical thickness decreases with warming. Thinning of clouds with warming is observed on seasonal, synoptic, and diurnal time scales; it is most obvious in the warm sectors of baroclinic waves. Although cloud top is observed to slightly descend with warming, the primary cause of thinning, is the ascent of cloud base due to the reduction in surface relative humidity and the concomitant increase in the lifting condensation level of surface air. Low cloud liquid water path is not observed to be a continuous function of temperature. Rather, the behavior we observe is best explained as a transition in the frequency of occurrence of different boundary layer types. At cold temperatures, a mixture of stratified and convective boundary layers is observed, leading to a broad distribution of liquid water path values, while at warm temperatures, only convective boundary layers with small liquid water paths, some of them decoupled, are observed. Our results, combined with the earlier satellite inferences, imply that the commonly quoted 1.5C lower limit for the equilibrium global climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 which is based on models with near-adiabatic liquid water behavior and constant physical thickness, should be revised upward.

Climatic Implications of the Observed Temperature Dependence of the Liquid Water Path of Low Clouds in the Southern Great Plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DelGenio, Anthony D.; Wolf, Audrey B.

1999-01-01

Satellite observations of low-level clouds have challenged the assumption that adiabatic liquid water content combined with constant physical thickness will lead to a negative cloud optics feedback in a decadal climate change. We explore the reasons for the satellite results using four years of surface remote sensing data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Cloud and Radiation Testbed site in the Southern Great Plains of the United States. We find that low cloud liquid water path is approximately invariant with temperature in winter but decreases strongly with temperature in summer, consistent with the satellite inferences at this latitude. This behavior occurs because liquid water content shows no detectable temperature dependence while cloud physical thickness decreases with warming. Thinning of clouds with warming is observed on seasonal, synoptic, and diurnal time scales; it is most obvious in the warm sectors of baroclinic waves. Although cloud top is observed to slightly descend with warming, the primary cause of thinning is the ascent of cloud base due to the reduction in surface relative humidity and the concomitant increase in the lifting condensation level of surface air. Low cloud liquid water path is not observed to be a continuous function of temperature. Rather, the behavior we observe is best explained as a transition in the frequency of occurrence of different boundary layer types: At cold temperatures, a mixture of stratified and convective boundary layers is observed, leading to a broad distribution of liquid water path values, while at warm temperatures, only convective boundary layers with small liquid water paths, some of them decoupled, are observed. Our results, combined with the earlier satellite inferences, imply that the commonly quoted 1.50 C lower limit for the equilibrium global climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2, which is based on models with near-adiabatic liquid water behavior and constant physical thickness, should be revised upward.

Mid-J CO Shock Tracing Observations of Infrared Dark Clouds. III. SLED Fitting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pon, A.; Kaufman, M. J.; Johnstone, D.; Caselli, P.; Fontani, F.; Butler, M. J.; Jiménez-Serra, I.; Palau, A.; Tan, J. C.

2016-08-01

Giant molecular clouds contain supersonic turbulence that can locally heat small fractions of gas to over 100 K. We run shock models for low-velocity, C-type shocks propagating into gas with densities between 103 and 105 cm-3 and find that CO lines are the most important cooling lines. Comparison to photodissociation region (PDR) models indicates that mid-J CO lines (J = 8 \\to 7 and higher) should be dominated by emission from shocked gas. In Papers I and II we presented CO J = 3 \\to 2, 8 \\to 7, and 9 \\to 8 observations toward four primarily quiescent clumps within infrared dark clouds. Here we fit PDR models to the combined spectral line energy distributions and show that the PDR models that best fit the low-J CO emission underpredict the mid-J CO emission by orders of magnitude, strongly hinting at a hot gas component within these clumps. The low-J CO data clearly show that the integrated intensities of both the CO J = 8 \\to 7 and 9 \\to 8 lines are anomalously high, such that the line ratio can be used to characterize the hot gas component. Shock models are reasonably consistent with the observed mid-J CO emission, with models with densities near {10}4.5 cm-3 providing the best agreement. Where this mid-J CO is detected, the mean volume filling factor of the hot gas is 0.1%. Much of the observed mid-J CO emission, however, is also associated with known protostars and may be due to protostellar feedback.

Atmospheric component of the MPI-M Earth System Model: ECHAM6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Bjorn; Giorgetta, Marco; Esch, Monika; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Crueger, Traute; Rast, Sebastian; Salzmann, Marc; Schmidt, Hauke; Bader, Jürgen; Block, Karoline; Brokopf, Renate; Fast, Irina; Kinne, Stefan; Kornblueh, Luis; Lohmann, Ulrike; Pincus, Robert; Reichler, Thomas; Roeckner, Erich

2013-06-01

ECHAM6, the sixth generation of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, is described. Major changes with respect to its predecessor affect the representation of shortwave radiative transfer, the height of the model top. Minor changes have been made to model tuning and convective triggering. Several model configurations, differing in horizontal and vertical resolution, are compared. As horizontal resolution is increased beyond T63, the simulated climate improves but changes are incremental; major biases appear to be limited by the parameterization of small-scale physical processes, such as clouds and convection. Higher vertical resolution in the middle atmosphere leads to a systematic reduction in temperature biases in the upper troposphere, and a better representation of the middle atmosphere and its modes of variability. ECHAM6 represents the present climate as well as, or better than, its predecessor. The most marked improvements are evident in the circulation of the extratropics. ECHAM6 continues to have a good representation of tropical variability. A number of biases, however, remain. These include a poor representation of low-level clouds, systematic shifts in major precipitation features, biases in the partitioning of precipitation between land and sea (particularly in the tropics), and midlatitude jets that appear to be insufficiently poleward. The response of ECHAM6 to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is similar to that of ECHAM5. The equilibrium climate sensitivity of the mixed-resolution (T63L95) configuration is between 2.9 and 3.4 K and is somewhat larger for the 47 level model. Cloud feedbacks and adjustments contribute positively to warming from increasing greenhouse gases.

Observed linkages between the northern annular mode/North Atlantic Oscillation, cloud incidence, and cloud radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ying; Thompson, David W. J.; Huang, Yi; Zhang, Minghong

2014-03-01

The signature of the northern annular mode/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAM/NAO) in the vertical and horizontal distribution of tropospheric cloudiness is investigated in CloudSat and CALIPSO data from June 2006 to April 2011. During the Northern Hemisphere winter, the positive polarity of the NAM/NAO is marked by increases in zonally averaged cloud incidence north of ~60°N, decreases between ~25 and 50°N, and increases in the subtropics. The tripolar-like anomalies in cloud incidence associated with the NAM/NAO are largest over the North Atlantic Ocean basin/Middle East and are physically consistent with the NAM/NAO-related anomalies in vertical motion. Importantly, the NAM/NAO-related anomalies in tropospheric cloud incidence lead to significant top of atmosphere cloud radiative forcing anomalies that are comparable in amplitude to those associated with the NAM/NAO-related temperature anomalies. The results provide observational evidence that the most prominent pattern of Northern Hemisphere climate variability is significantly linked to variations in cloud radiative forcing. Implications for two-way feedback between extratropical dynamics and cloud radiative forcing are discussed.

Mechanisms of diurnal precipitation over the US Great Plains: a cloud resolving model perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Myong-In; Choi, Ildae; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kang, In-Sik

2010-02-01

The mechanisms of summertime diurnal precipitation in the US Great Plains were examined with the two-dimensional (2D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model (CRM). The model was constrained by the observed large-scale background state and surface flux derived from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program’s Intensive Observing Period (IOP) data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP). The model, when continuously-forced by realistic surface flux and large-scale advection, simulates reasonably well the temporal evolution of the observed rainfall episodes, particularly for the strongly forced precipitation events. However, the model exhibits a deficiency for the weakly forced events driven by diurnal convection. Additional tests were run with the GCE model in order to discriminate between the mechanisms that determine daytime and nighttime convection. In these tests, the model was constrained with the same repeating diurnal variation in the large-scale advection and/or surface flux. The results indicate that it is primarily the surface heat and moisture flux that is responsible for the development of deep convection in the afternoon, whereas the large-scale upward motion and associated moisture advection play an important role in preconditioning nocturnal convection. In the nighttime, high clouds are continuously built up through their interaction and feedback with long-wave radiation, eventually initiating deep convection from the boundary layer. Without these upper-level destabilization processes, the model tends to produce only daytime convection in response to boundary layer heating. This study suggests that the correct simulation of the diurnal variation in precipitation requires that the free-atmospheric destabilization mechanisms resolved in the CRM simulation must be adequately parameterized in current general circulation models (GCMs) many of which are overly sensitive to the parameterized boundary layer heating.

Mechanisms of Diurnal Precipitation over the United States Great Plains: A Cloud-Resolving Model Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, M.-I.; Choi, I.; Tao, W.-K.; Schubert, S. D.; Kang, I.-K.

2010-01-01

The mechanisms of summertime diurnal precipitation in the US Great Plains were examined with the two-dimensional (2D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model (CRM). The model was constrained by the observed large-scale background state and surface flux derived from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program s Intensive Observing Period (IOP) data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP). The model, when continuously-forced by realistic surface flux and large-scale advection, simulates reasonably well the temporal evolution of the observed rainfall episodes, particularly for the strongly forced precipitation events. However, the model exhibits a deficiency for the weakly forced events driven by diurnal convection. Additional tests were run with the GCE model in order to discriminate between the mechanisms that determine daytime and nighttime convection. In these tests, the model was constrained with the same repeating diurnal variation in the large-scale advection and/or surface flux. The results indicate that it is primarily the surface heat and moisture flux that is responsible for the development of deep convection in the afternoon, whereas the large-scale upward motion and associated moisture advection play an important role in preconditioning nocturnal convection. In the nighttime, high clouds are continuously built up through their interaction and feedback with long-wave radiation, eventually initiating deep convection from the boundary layer. Without these upper-level destabilization processes, the model tends to produce only daytime convection in response to boundary layer heating. This study suggests that the correct simulation of the diurnal variation in precipitation requires that the free-atmospheric destabilization mechanisms resolved in the CRM simulation must be adequately parameterized in current general circulation models (GCMs) many of which are overly sensitive to the parameterized boundary layer heating.

Modeling the Evolution of Disk Galaxies. I. The Chemodynamical Method and the Galaxy Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samland, M.; Hensler, G.; Theis, Ch.

1997-02-01

Here we present our two-dimensional chemodynamical code CoDEx, which we developed for the purpose of modeling the evolution of galaxies in a self-consistent manner. The code solves the hydrodynamical and momentum equations for three stellar components and the multiphase interstellar medium (clouds and intercloud medium), including star formation, Type I and Type II supernovae, planetary nebulae, stellar winds, evaporation and condensation, drag, cloud collisions, heating and cooling, and stellar nucleosynthesis. These processes are treated simultaneously, coupling a large range in temporal and spatial scales, to account for feedback and self-regulation processes, which play an extraordinarily important role in the galactic evolution. The evolution of galaxies of different masses and angular momenta is followed through all stages from the initial protogalactic clouds until now. In this first paper we present a representative model of the Milky Way and compare it with observations. The capability of chemodynamical models is convincingly proved by the excellent agreement with various observations. In addition, well-known problems (the G-dwarf problem, the discrepancy between local effective yields, etc.), which so far could be only explained by artificial constraints, are also solved in the global scenario. Starting from a rotating protogalactic gas cloud in virial equilibrium, which collapses owing to dissipative cloud-cloud collisions, we can follow the galactic evolution in detail. Owing to the collapse, the gas density increases, stars are forming, and the first Type II supernovae explode. The collapse time is 1 order of magnitude longer than the dynamical free-fall time because of the energy release by Type II supernovae. The supernovae also drive hot metal-rich gas ejected from massive stars into the halo, and as a consequence, the clouds in the star-forming regions have lower metallicities than the clouds in the halo. The observed negative metallicity gradients do not form before t = 6 × 109 yr. These outward gas flows prevent any clear correlation between local star formation rate and enrichment and also prevent a unique age-metallicity relation. The situation, however, is even more complicated, because the mass return of intermediate-mass stars (Type I supernovae and planetary nebulae) is delayed depending on the type of precursor. Since our chemodynamical model includes all these processes, we can calculate, e.g., the [O/H] distribution of stars and find good agreement everywhere in bulge, disk, and halo. From the galactic oxygen to iron ratio, we can determine the supernovae ([II + Ib]/Ia) ratio for different types of Type Ia supernovae (such as carbon deflagration or sub-Chandrasekhar models) and find that the ratio should be in the range 1.0-3.8. The chemodynamical model also traces other chemical elements (e.g., N + C), density distributions, gas flows, velocity dispersions of the stars and clouds, star formation, planetary nebula rates, cloud collision, condensation and evaporation rates, and the cooling due to radiation. The chemodynamical treatment of galaxy evolution should be envisaged as a necessary development, which takes those processes into account that affect the dynamical, energetical, and chemical evolution.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Yu; Benson, Andrew; Mao, Yao -Yuan

Many properties of the Milky Way's (MW) dark matter halo, including its mass-assembly history, concentration, and subhalo population, remain poorly constrained. We explore the connection between these properties of the MW and its satellite galaxy population, especially the implication of the presence of the Magellanic Clouds for the properties of the MW halo. Using a suite of high-resolution N-body simulations of MW-mass halos with a fixed finalmore » $${M}_{\\mathrm{vir}}\\sim {10}^{12.1}\\,{M}_{\\odot }$$, we find that the presence of Magellanic Cloud-like satellites strongly correlates with the assembly history, concentration, and subhalo population of the host halo, such that MW-mass systems with Magellanic Clouds have lower concentration, more rapid recent accretion, and more massive subhalos than typical halos of the same mass. Using a flexible semi-analytic galaxy formation model that is tuned to reproduce the stellar mass function of the classical dwarf galaxies of the MW with Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo, we show that adopting host halos with different mass-assembly histories and concentrations can lead to different best-fit models for galaxy-formation physics, especially for the strength of feedback. These biases arise because the presence of the Magellanic Clouds boosts the overall population of high-mass subhalos, thus requiring a different stellar-mass-to-halo-mass ratio to match the data. These biases also lead to significant differences in the mass–metallicity relation, the kinematics of low-mass satellites, the number counts of small satellites associated with the Magellanic Clouds, and the stellar mass of MW itself. Finally, observations of these galaxy properties can thus provide useful constraints on the properties of the MW halo.« less

The connection between the host halo and the satellite galaxies of the Milky Way

DOE PAGES

Lu, Yu; Benson, Andrew; Mao, Yao -Yuan; ...

2016-10-11

Many properties of the Milky Way's (MW) dark matter halo, including its mass-assembly history, concentration, and subhalo population, remain poorly constrained. We explore the connection between these properties of the MW and its satellite galaxy population, especially the implication of the presence of the Magellanic Clouds for the properties of the MW halo. Using a suite of high-resolution N-body simulations of MW-mass halos with a fixed finalmore » $${M}_{\\mathrm{vir}}\\sim {10}^{12.1}\\,{M}_{\\odot }$$, we find that the presence of Magellanic Cloud-like satellites strongly correlates with the assembly history, concentration, and subhalo population of the host halo, such that MW-mass systems with Magellanic Clouds have lower concentration, more rapid recent accretion, and more massive subhalos than typical halos of the same mass. Using a flexible semi-analytic galaxy formation model that is tuned to reproduce the stellar mass function of the classical dwarf galaxies of the MW with Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo, we show that adopting host halos with different mass-assembly histories and concentrations can lead to different best-fit models for galaxy-formation physics, especially for the strength of feedback. These biases arise because the presence of the Magellanic Clouds boosts the overall population of high-mass subhalos, thus requiring a different stellar-mass-to-halo-mass ratio to match the data. These biases also lead to significant differences in the mass–metallicity relation, the kinematics of low-mass satellites, the number counts of small satellites associated with the Magellanic Clouds, and the stellar mass of MW itself. Finally, observations of these galaxy properties can thus provide useful constraints on the properties of the MW halo.« less

Effects of explicit convection on global land-atmosphere coupling in the superparameterized CAM

DOE PAGES

Sun, Jian; Pritchard, Michael S.

2016-07-25

Here, conventional global climate models are prone to producing unrealistic land-atmosphere coupling signals. Cumulus and convection parameterizations are natural culprits but the effect of bypassing them with explicitly resolved convection on global land-atmosphere coupling dynamics has not been explored systematically. We apply a suite of modern land-atmosphere coupling diagnostics to isolate the effect of cloud Superparameterization in the Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM) v3.5, focusing on both the terrestrial segment (i.e., soil moisture and surface turbulent fluxes interaction) and atmospheric segment (i.e., surface turbulent fluxes and precipitation interaction) in the water pathway of the landatmosphere feedback loop. At daily timescales, SPCAMmore » produces stronger uncoupled terrestrial signals (negative sign) over tropical rainforests in wet seasons, reduces the terrestrial coupling strength in the Central Great Plain in American, and reverses the coupling sign (from negative to positive) over India in the boreal summer season—all favorable improvements relative to reanalysis-forced land modeling. Analysis of the triggering feedback strength (TFS) and amplification feedback strength (AFS) shows that SPCAM favorably reproduces the observed geographic patterns of these indices over North America, with the probability of afternoon precipitation enhanced by high evaporative fraction along the eastern United States and Mexico, while conventional CAM does not capture this signal. We introduce a new diagnostic called the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) Feedback Strength (PFS), which reveals that SPCAM exhibits a tight connection between the responses of the lifting condensation level, the PBL height, and the rainfall triggering to surface turbulent fluxes; a triggering disconnect is found in CAM.« less

Effects of explicit convection on global land-atmosphere coupling in the superparameterized CAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Jian; Pritchard, Michael S.

2016-09-01

Conventional global climate models are prone to producing unrealistic land-atmosphere coupling signals. Cumulus and convection parameterizations are natural culprits but the effect of bypassing them with explicitly resolved convection on global land-atmosphere coupling dynamics has not been explored systematically. We apply a suite of modern land-atmosphere coupling diagnostics to isolate the effect of cloud Superparameterization in the Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM) v3.5, focusing on both the terrestrial segment (i.e., soil moisture and surface turbulent fluxes interaction) and atmospheric segment (i.e., surface turbulent fluxes and precipitation interaction) in the water pathway of the land-atmosphere feedback loop. At daily timescales, SPCAM produces stronger uncoupled terrestrial signals (negative sign) over tropical rainforests in wet seasons, reduces the terrestrial coupling strength in the Central Great Plain in American, and reverses the coupling sign (from negative to positive) over India in the boreal summer season—all favorable improvements relative to reanalysis-forced land modeling. Analysis of the triggering feedback strength (TFS) and amplification feedback strength (AFS) shows that SPCAM favorably reproduces the observed geographic patterns of these indices over North America, with the probability of afternoon precipitation enhanced by high evaporative fraction along the eastern United States and Mexico, while conventional CAM does not capture this signal. We introduce a new diagnostic called the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) Feedback Strength (PFS), which reveals that SPCAM exhibits a tight connection between the responses of the lifting condensation level, the PBL height, and the rainfall triggering to surface turbulent fluxes; a triggering disconnect is found in CAM.

Effects of explicit convection on global land-atmosphere coupling in the superparameterized CAM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Jian; Pritchard, Michael S.

Here, conventional global climate models are prone to producing unrealistic land-atmosphere coupling signals. Cumulus and convection parameterizations are natural culprits but the effect of bypassing them with explicitly resolved convection on global land-atmosphere coupling dynamics has not been explored systematically. We apply a suite of modern land-atmosphere coupling diagnostics to isolate the effect of cloud Superparameterization in the Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM) v3.5, focusing on both the terrestrial segment (i.e., soil moisture and surface turbulent fluxes interaction) and atmospheric segment (i.e., surface turbulent fluxes and precipitation interaction) in the water pathway of the landatmosphere feedback loop. At daily timescales, SPCAMmore » produces stronger uncoupled terrestrial signals (negative sign) over tropical rainforests in wet seasons, reduces the terrestrial coupling strength in the Central Great Plain in American, and reverses the coupling sign (from negative to positive) over India in the boreal summer season—all favorable improvements relative to reanalysis-forced land modeling. Analysis of the triggering feedback strength (TFS) and amplification feedback strength (AFS) shows that SPCAM favorably reproduces the observed geographic patterns of these indices over North America, with the probability of afternoon precipitation enhanced by high evaporative fraction along the eastern United States and Mexico, while conventional CAM does not capture this signal. We introduce a new diagnostic called the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) Feedback Strength (PFS), which reveals that SPCAM exhibits a tight connection between the responses of the lifting condensation level, the PBL height, and the rainfall triggering to surface turbulent fluxes; a triggering disconnect is found in CAM.« less

Slow Cooling in Low Metallicity Clouds: An Origin of Globular Cluster Bimodality?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, Ricardo; Bryan, Greg L.

2018-05-01

We explore the relative role of small-scale fragmentation and global collapse in low-metallicity clouds, pointing out that in such clouds the cooling time may be longer than the dynamical time, allowing the cloud to collapse globally before it can fragment. This, we suggest, may help to explain the formation of the low-metallicity globular cluster population, since such dense stellar systems need a large amount of gas to be collected in a small region (without significant feedback during the collapse). To explore this further, we carry out numerical simulations of low-metallicity Bonner-Ebert stable gas clouds, demonstrating that there exists a critical metallicity (between 0.001 and 0.01 Z⊙) below which the cloud collapses globally without fragmentation. We also run simulations including a background radiative heating source, showing that this can also produce clouds that do not fragment, and that the critical metallicity - which can exceed the no-radiation case - increases with the heating rate.

The importance of wind-flux feedbacks during the November CINDY-DYNAMO MJO event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley Dellaripa, Emily; Maloney, Eric; van den Heever, Susan

2015-04-01

High-resolution, large-domain cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations probing the importance of wind-flux feedbacks to Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) convection are performed for the November 2011 CINDY-DYNAMO MJO event. The work is motivated by observational analysis from RAMA buoys in the Indian Ocean and TRMM precipitation retrievals that show a positive correlation between MJO precipitation and wind-induced surface fluxes, especially latent heat fluxes, during and beyond the CINDY-DYNAMO time period. Simulations are done using Colorado State University's Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The domain setup is oceanic and spans 1000 km x 1000 km with 1.5 km horizontal resolution and 65 stretched vertical levels centered on the location of Gan Island - one of the major CINDY-DYNAMO observation points. The model is initialized with ECMWF reanalysis and Aqua MODIS sea surface temperatures. Nudging from ECMWF reanalysis is applied at the domain periphery to encourage realistic evolution of MJO convection. The control experiment is run for the entire month of November so both suppressed and active, as well as, transitional phases of the MJO are modeled. In the control experiment, wind-induced surface fluxes are activated through the surface bulk aerodynamic formula and allowed to evolve organically. Sensitivity experiments are done by restarting the control run one week into the simulation and controlling the wind-induced flux feedbacks. In one sensitivity experiment, wind-induced surface flux feedbacks are completely denied, while in another experiment the winds are kept constant at the control simulations mean surface wind speed. The evolution of convection, especially on the mesoscale, is compared between the control and sensitivity simulations.

Aerosol Concentration, Size, Hygroscopicity and MEE, Globally: What Do We Need to Know and How Can We Know It?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahn, Ralph

2017-01-01

Organizers of the Symposium Clouds, their Properties, and their Climate Feedbacks - What Have We Learned in the Satellite Era, held at Columbia University, NASAGISS June 6-8, 2017 plan to post the presented talks to an online website. http:www.gewex.orgeventclouds-their-properties-and-their-climate-feedbacks-what-have-we-learned-in-the-satellite-era?instance_id293534

Quantifying the radiative and microphysical impacts of fire aerosols on cloud dynamics in the tropics using temporally offset satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosca, M. G.; Diner, D. J.; Garay, M. J.; Kalashnikova, O.

2013-12-01

Anthropogenic fires in Southeast Asia and Central America emit smoke that affects cloud dynamics, meteorology, and climate. We measured the cloud response to direct and indirect forcing from biomass burning aerosols using aerosol retrievals from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and non-synchronous cloud retrievals from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) from collocated morning and afternoon overpasses. Level 2 data from thirty-one individual scenes acquired between 2006 and 2010 were used to quantify changes in cloud fraction, cloud droplet size, cloud optical depth and cloud top temperature from morning (10:30am local time) to afternoon (1:30pm local time) in the presence of varying aerosol burdens. We accounted for large-scale meteorological differences between scenes by normalizing observed changes to the mean difference per individual scene. Elevated AODs reduced cloud fraction and cloud droplet size and increased cloud optical depths in both Southeast Asia and Central America. In mostly cloudy regions, aerosols significantly reduced cloud fraction and cloud droplet sizes, but in clear skies, cloud fraction, cloud optical thickness and cloud droplet sizes increased. In clouds with vertical development, aerosols reduced cloud fraction via semi-direct effects but spurred cloud growth via indirect effects. These results imply a positive feedback loop between anthropogenic burning and cloudiness in both Central America and Southeast Asia, and are consistent with previous studies linking smoke aerosols to both cloud reduction and convective invigoration.

From Global to Cloud Resolving Scale: Experiments with a Scale- and Aerosol-Aware Physics Package and Impact on Tracer Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grell, G. A.; Freitas, S. R.; Olson, J.; Bela, M.

2017-12-01

We will start by providing a summary of the latest cumulus parameterization modeling efforts at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) will be presented on both regional and global scales. The physics package includes a scale-aware parameterization of subgrid cloudiness feedback to radiation (coupled PBL, microphysics, radiation, shallow and congestus type convection), the stochastic Grell-Freitas (GF) scale- and aerosol-aware convective parameterization, and an aerosol aware microphysics package. GF is based on a stochastic approach originally implemented by Grell and Devenyi (2002) and described in more detail in Grell and Freitas (2014, ACP). It was expanded to include PDF's for vertical mass flux, as well as modifications to improve the diurnal cycle. This physics package will be used on different scales, spanning global to cloud resolving, to look at the impact on scalar transport and numerical weather prediction.

Alterations of Cloud Microphysics Due to Cloud Processed CCN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudson, J. G.; Tabor, S. S.; Noble, S. R., Jr.

2015-12-01

High-resolution CCN spectra have revealed bimodality (Hudson et al. 2015) similar to aerosol size spectra (e.g., Hoppel et al. 1985). Bimodality is caused by chemical and physical cloud processes that increase mass or hygroscopicity of only CCN that produced activated cloud droplets. Bimodality is categorized by relative CCN concentrations (NCCN) within the two modes, Nu-Np; i.e., NCCN within the higher critical supersaturation, Sc, mode that did not undergo cloud processing minus NCCN within the lower Sc mode that was cloud processed. Lower, especially negative, Nu-Np designates greater processing. The table shows regressions between Nu-Np and characteristics of clouds nearest the CCN measurements. ICE-T MASE parameter R SL R SL Nc 0.17 93.24 -0.26 98.65 MD -0.31 99.69 0.33 99.78 σ -0.27 99.04 0.48 100.00 Ld -0.31 99.61 0.38 99.96 Table. Correlation coefficients, R, and one-tailed significance levels in percent, SL, for Nu-Np with microphysics of the clouds closest to each CCN measurement, 75 ICE-T and 74 MASE cases. Nc is cloud droplet concentration, MD is cloud droplet mean diameter, σ is standard deviation of cloud droplet spectra, Ldis drizzle drop LWC. Two aircraft field campaigns, Ice in Clouds Experiment-Tropical (ICE-T) and Marine Stratus/Stratocumulus Experiment (MASE) show opposite R signs because coalescence dominated cloud processing in low altitude ICE-T cumuli whereas chemical transformations predominated in MASE low altitude polluted stratus. Coalescence reduces Nc and NCCN, which thus increases MD, and σ, which promote Ld. Chemical transformations, e.g., SO2 to SO4, increase CCN hygroscopicity, thus reducing Sc, but not affecting Nc or NCCN. Lower Sc CCN are capable of producing greater Nc in subsequent cloud cycles, which leads to lower MD and σ which reduce Ld (figure). These observations are consistent with cloud droplet growth models for the higher vertical wind (W) of cumuli and lower W of stratus. Coalescence thus reduces the indirect aerosol effect (IAE) with a positive feedback that further enhances coalescence and drizzle. Chemical cloud processing enhances both components of IAE; 1st IAE by greater droplet surface area, 2ndIAE by suppressing drizzle and thus increasing cloudiness. Hoppel, Fitzgerald and Larson: JGR 90, 2365-79 Hudson, Noble and Tabor: JGRA 120, 3436-52

The climate impacts of absorbing aerosols on and within the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasch, P.; Wang, H.; Ma, P.; Fast, J. D.; Wang, M.; Easter, R. C.; Liu, X.; Qian, Y.; Flanner, M. G.; Ghan, S.; Singh, B.

2011-12-01

Absorbing aerosols are receiving increasing attention as forcing agents in the climate system. By scattering and absorbing light they can reduce planetary albedo, particularly over bright surfaces (clouds, snow and ice). They also act as cloud condensation and/or ice nuclei, influencing the brightness, lifetime and precipitation properties of clouds. Atmospheric stability and primary circulation features respond to the changing vertical and horizontal patterns of heating, cooling, and surface fluxes produced by the aerosols, clouds and surface properties. These changes in meteorology have further impacts on aerosols and clouds producing a complex interplay between transport, forcings, and feedbacks involving absorbing aerosols and climate. The complexity of the processes and the interactions between them make it very challenging to represent aerosols realistically in large scale (global and regional) climate models. Simulations of important features of aerosols still contain easily identifiable biases. I will describe our efforts to identify the processes responsible for some of those biases and the deficiencies in model formulations that impede progress in treating aerosols and understanding their role in polar climate. I plan to summarize some studies performed with the NCAR CESM (global) and WRF-Chem (regional) Community models that examine the simulation sensitivity to treatments of physics, chemistry, and meteorology. Some of these simulations were allowed to evolve freely; others were strongly constrained to agree with observed meteorological fields. We have also altered the formulation of a number of the processes in the model to improve fidelity in the aerosol distributions. The parameterizations used in our global model have also been transferred to the regional model, allowing comparisons to be made between the simpler formulations used in the global model with more elaborate and costly formulations available in the regional model. The regional model can be run at higher resolution in order to explore the resolution dependence of the parameterizations and make comparisons to field experiments more straightforward. Aerosols sources have also been tagged by sector and geographic region to help in attribution and interpretation. The many variations mentioned here help in understanding how aerosols reach the arctic and how they produce changes in radiative forcing and Arctic climate. I will provide a brief overview of these studies, with more detail available in presentations submitted to this session and elsewhere.

Investigation of aerosol effects on shallow marine convection - Lidar measurements during NARVAL-I and NARVAL-II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groß, Silke; Wirth, Martin; Gutleben, Manuel; Ewald, Florian; Kiemle, Christoph; Kölling, Tobias; Mayer, Bernhard

2017-04-01

Clouds and aerosols have a large impact on the Earth's radiation budget by scattering and absorption of solar and terrestrial radiation. Furthermore aerosols can modify cloud properties and distribution. Up to now no sufficient understanding in aerosol-cloud interaction and in climate feedback of clouds is achieved. Especially shallow marine convection in the trade wind regions show large uncertainties in climate feedback. Thus a better understanding of these shallow marine convective clouds and how aerosols affect these clouds, e.g. by changing the cloud properties and distribution, is highly demanded. During NARVAL-I (Next-generation airborne remote-sensing for validation studies) and NARVAL-II a set of active and passive remote sensing instruments, i.e. a cloud radar, an aerosol and water vapor lidar system, microwave radiometer, a hyper spectral imager (NARVAL-II only) and radiation measurements, were installed on the German research aircraft HALO. Measurements were performed out of Barbados over the tropical North-Atlantic region in December 2013 and August 2016 to study shallow trade wind convection as well as its environment in the dry and wet season. While no or only few aerosol layers were observed above the marine boundary layer during the dry season in December 2013, part of the measurement area was influenced by high aerosol load caused by long-range transport of Saharan dust during the NARVAL-II measurements in August 2016. Measurement flights during NARVAL-II were conducted the way that we could probed aerosol influenced regions as well as areas with low aerosol load. Thus the measurements during both campaigns provide the opportunity to investigate if and how the transported aerosol layers change the distribution and formation of the shallow marine convection by altering their properties and environment. In our presentation we will focus on the lidar measurements performed during NARVAL-I and NARVAL-II. We will give an overview of the measurements and of the general aerosol and cloud situation, and we will show first results how cloud properties and distribution of shallow marine convection change in the presence of lofted aerosol layers. In particular we will determine if aerosols modify horizontal cloud distribution and cloud top height distribution by looking on the correlations between aerosol load and cloud distribution, and we will investigate if and how the presence of the lofted aerosol layer changes the properties of the clouds, e.g. by acting as ice nuclei.

Ejecta cloud from the AIDA space project kinetic impact on the secondary of a binary asteroid: I. mechanical environment and dynamical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yang; Michel, Patrick; Schwartz, Stephen R.; Naidu, Shantanu P.; Benner, Lance A. M.

2017-01-01

An understanding of the post-impact dynamics of ejecta clouds are crucial to the planning of a kinetic impact mission to an asteroid, and also has great implications for the history of planetary formation. The purpose of this article is to track the evolution of ejecta produced by AIDA mission, which targets for kinetic impact the secondary of near-Earth binary asteroid (65803) Didymos on 2022, and to feedback essential informations to AIDA's ongoing phase-A study. We present a detailed dynamic model for the simulation of an ejecta cloud from a binary asteroid that synthesizes all relevant forces based on a previous analysis of the mechanical environment. We apply our method to gain insight into the expected response of Didymos to the AIDA impact, including the subsequent evolution of debris and dust. The crater scaling relations from laboratory experiments are employed to approximate the distributions of ejecta mass and launching speed. The size distribution of fragments is modeled with a power law fitted from observations of real asteroid surface. A full-scale demonstration is simulated using parameters specified by the mission. We report the results of the simulation, which include the computed spread of the ejecta cloud and the recorded history of ejecta accretion and escape. The violent period of the ejecta evolution is found to be short, and is followed by a stage where the remaining ejecta is gradually cleared. Solar radiation pressure proves to be efficient in cleaning dust-size ejecta, and the simulation results after two weeks shows that large debris on polar orbits (perpendicular to the binary orbital plane) has a survival advantage over smaller ejecta and ejecta that keeps to low latitudes.

The Role of Global Hydrologic Processes in Interannual and Long-Term Climate Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.

1997-01-01

The earth's climate and its variability is linked inextricably with the presence of water on our planet. El Nino / Southern Oscillation-- the major mode of interannual variability-- is characterized by strong perturbations in oceanic evaporation, tropical rainfall, and radiation. On longer time scales, the major feedback mechanism in CO2-induced global warming is actually that due to increased water vapor holding capacity of the atmosphere. The global hydrologic cycle effects on climate are manifested through influence of cloud and water vapor on energy fluxes at the top of atmosphere and at the surface. Surface moisture anomalies retain the "memory" of past precipitation anomalies and subsequently alter the partitioning of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the surface. At the top of atmosphere, water vapor and cloud perturbations alter the net amount of radiation that the earth's climate system receives. These pervasive linkages between water, radiation, and surface processes present major complexities for observing and modeling climate variations. Major uncertainties in the observations include vertical structure of clouds and water vapor, surface energy balance, and transport of water and heat by wind fields. Modeling climate variability and change on a physical basis requires accurate by simplified submodels of radiation, cloud formation, radiative exchange, surface biophysics, and oceanic energy flux. In the past, we m safely say that being "data poor' has limited our depth of understanding and impeded model validation and improvement. Beginning with pre-EOS data sets, many of these barriers are being removed. EOS platforms with the suite of measurements dedicated to specific science questions are part of our most cost effective path to improved understanding and predictive capability. This talk will highlight some of the major questions confronting global hydrology and the prospects for significant progress afforded by EOS-era measurements.

North Pacific Cloud Feedbacks Inferred from Synoptic-Scale Dynamic and Thermodynamic Relationships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Joel R.; Iacobellis, Sam F.

2005-01-01

This study analyzed daily satellite cloud observations and reanalysis dynamical parameters to determine how mid-tropospheric vertical velocity and advection over the sea surface temperature gradient control midlatitude North Pacific cloud properties. Optically thick clouds with high tops are generated by synoptic ascent, but two different cloud regimes occur under synoptic descent. When vertical motion is downward during summer, extensive stratocumulus cloudiness is associated with near surface northerly wind, while frequent cloudless pixels occur with southerly wind. Examinations of ship-reported cloud types indicates that midlatitude stratocumulus breaks up as the the boundary level decouples when it is advected equatorward over warmer water. Cumulus is prevalent under conditions of synoptic descent and cold advection during winter. Poleward advection of subtropical air over colder water causes stratification of the near-surface layer that inhibits upward mixing of moisture and suppresses cloudiness until a fog eventually forms. Averaging of cloud and radiation data into intervals of 500-hPa vertical velocity and advection over the SST gradient enables the cloud response to changes in temperature and the stratification of the lower troposphere to be investigated independent of the dynamics.

The earth's radiation budget and its relation to atmospheric hydrology. I - Observations of the clear sky greenhouse effect. II - Observations of cloud effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephens, Graeme L.; Greenwald, Thomas J.

1991-01-01

The clear-sky components of the earth's radiation budget (ERB), the relationship of these components to the sea surface temperature (SST), and microwave-derived water-vapor amount are analyzed in an observational study along with the relationship between the cloudy-sky components of ERB and space/time coincident observations of SST, microwave-derived cloud liquid water, and cloud cover. The purpose of the study is to use these observations for establishing an understanding of the couplings between radiation and the atmosphere that are important to understanding climate feedback. A strategy for studying the greenhouse effect of earth by analyzing the emitted clear-sky longwave flux over the ocean is proposed. It is concluded that the largest observed influence of clouds on ERB is more consistent with macrophysical properties of clouds as opposed to microphysical properties. The analysis for clouds and the greenhouse effect of clouds is compared quantitatively with the clear sky results. Land-ocean differences and tropical-midlatitude differences are shown and explained in terms of the cloud macrostructure.

Scientific goals of the Cooperative Multiscale Experiment (CME)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cotton, William

1993-01-01

Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) form the focus of CME. Recent developments in global climate models, the urgent need to improve the representation of the physics of convection, radiation, the boundary layer, and orography, and the surge of interest in coupling hydrologic, chemistry, and atmospheric models of various scales, have emphasized the need for a broad interdisciplinary and multi-scale approach to understanding and predicting MCS's and their interactions with processes at other scales. The role of mesoscale systems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation, the representation of organized convection and other mesoscale flux sources in terms of bulk properties, and the mutually consistent treatment of water vapor, clouds, radiation, and precipitation, are all key scientific issues concerning which CME will seek to increase understanding. The manner in which convective, mesoscale, and larger scale processes interact to produce and organize MCS's, the moisture cycling properties of MCS's, and the use of coupled cloud/mesoscale models to better understand these processes, are also major objectives of CME. Particular emphasis will be placed on the multi-scale role of MCS's in the hydrological cycle and in the production and transport of chemical trace constituents. The scientific goals of the CME consist of the following: understand how the large and small scales of motion influence the location, structure, intensity, and life cycles of MCS's; understand processes and conditions that determine the relative roles of balanced (slow manifold) and unbalanced (fast manifold) circulations in the dynamics of MCS's throughout their life cycles; assess the predictability of MCS's and improve the quantitative forecasting of precipitation and severe weather events; quantify the upscale feedback of MCS's to the large-scale environment and determine interrelationships between MCS occurrence and variations in the large-scale flow and surface forcing; provide a data base for initialization and verification of coupled regional, mesoscale/hydrologic, mesoscale/chemistry, and prototype mesoscale/cloud-resolving models for prediction of severe weather, ceilings, and visibility; provide a data base for initialization and validation of cloud-resolving models, and for assisting in the fabrication, calibration, and testing of cloud and MCS parameterization schemes; and provide a data base for validation of four dimensional data assimilation schemes and algorithms for retrieving cloud and state parameters from remote sensing instrumentation.

Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Previdi, M.; Liepert, B. G.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Hansen, J.; Beerling, D. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Frolking, S.; Galloway, J. N.; Heimann, M.; LeQuere, C.;

Spectral shifting strongly constrains molecular cloud disruption by radiation pressure on dust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reissl, Stefan; Klessen, Ralf S.; Mac Low, Mordecai-Mark; Pellegrini, Eric W.

2018-03-01

Aim. We aim to test the hypothesis that radiation pressure from young star clusters acting on dust is the dominant feedback agent disrupting the largest star-forming molecular clouds and thus regulating the star-formation process. Methods: We performed multi-frequency, 3D, radiative transfer calculations including both scattering and absorption and re-emission to longer wavelengths for model clouds with masses of 104-107 M⊙, containing embedded clusters with star formation efficiencies of 0.009-91%, and varying maximum grain sizes up to 200 μm. We calculated the ratio between radiative and gravitational forces to determine whether radiation pressure can disrupt clouds. Results: We find that radiation pressure acting on dust almost never disrupts star-forming clouds. Ultraviolet and optical photons from young stars to which the cloud is optically thick do not scatter much. Instead, they quickly get absorbed and re-emitted by the dust at thermal wavelengths. As the cloud is typically optically thin to far-infrared radiation, it promptly escapes, depositing little momentum in the cloud. The resulting spectrum is more narrowly peaked than the corresponding Planck function, and exhibits an extended tail at longer wavelengths. As the opacity drops significantly across the sub-mm and mm wavelength regime, the resulting radiative force is even smaller than for the corresponding single-temperature blackbody. We find that the force from radiation pressure falls below the strength of gravitational attraction by an order of magnitude or more for either Milky Way or moderate starbust conditions. Only for unrealistically large maximum grain sizes, and star formation efficiencies far exceeding 50% do we find that the strength of radiation pressure can exceed gravity. Conclusions: We conclude that radiation pressure acting on dust does not disrupt star-forming molecular clouds in any Local Group galaxies. Radiation pressure thus appears unlikely to regulate the star-formation process on either local or global scales.

Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Gen; Xie, Shang-Ping; He, Chao; Chen, Zesheng

2017-10-01

The agrarian-based socioeconomic livelihood of densely populated South Asian countries is vulnerable to modest changes in Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. How the ISM rainfall will evolve is a question of broad scientific and socioeconomic importance. In response to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, climate models commonly project an increase in ISM rainfall. This wetter ISM projection, however, does not consider large model errors in both the mean state and ocean warming pattern. Here we identify a relationship between biases in simulated present climate and future ISM projections in a multi-model ensemble: models with excessive present-day precipitation over the tropical western Pacific tend to project a larger increase in ISM rainfall under GHG forcing because of too strong a negative cloud-radiation feedback on sea surface temperature. The excessive negative feedback suppresses the local ocean surface warming, strengthening ISM rainfall projections via atmospheric circulation. We calibrate the ISM rainfall projections using this `present-future relationship’ and observed western Pacific precipitation. The correction reduces by about 50% of the projected rainfall increase over the broad ISM region. Our study identifies an improved simulation of western Pacific convection as a priority for reliable ISM projections.

Interfacing a one-dimensional lake model with a single-column atmospheric model: 2. Thermal response of the deep Lake Geneva, Switzerland under a 2 × CO2 global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perroud, Marjorie; Goyette, StéPhane

2012-06-01

In the companion to the present paper, the one-dimensional k-ɛ lake model SIMSTRAT is coupled to a single-column atmospheric model, nicknamed FIZC, and an application of the coupled model to the deep Lake Geneva, Switzerland, is described. In this paper, the response of Lake Geneva to global warming caused by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (i.e., 2 × CO2) is investigated. Coupling the models allowed for feedbacks between the lake surface and the atmosphere and produced changes in atmospheric moisture and cloud cover that further modified the downward radiation fluxes. The time evolution of atmospheric variables as well as those of the lake's thermal profile could be reproduced realistically by devising a set of adjustable parameters. In a "control" 1 × CO2 climate experiment, the coupled FIZC-SIMSTRAT model demonstrated genuine skills in reproducing epilimnetic and hypolimnetic temperatures, with annual mean errors and standard deviations of 0.25°C ± 0.25°C and 0.3°C ± 0.15°C, respectively. Doubling the CO2 concentration induced an atmospheric warming that impacted the lake's thermal structure, increasing the stability of the water column and extending the stratified period by 3 weeks. Epilimnetic temperatures were seen to increase by 2.6°C to 4.2°C, while hypolimnion temperatures increased by 2.2°C. Climate change modified components of the surface energy budget through changes mainly in air temperature, moisture, and cloud cover. During summer, reduced cloud cover resulted in an increase in the annual net solar radiation budget. A larger water vapor deficit at the air-water interface induced a cooling effect in the lake.

Analysis of the WRF-Chem simulations contributing to the AQMEII-Phase II exercise with respect to aerosol impact on precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werhahn, Johannes; Balzarini, Allessandra; Baró, Roccio; Curci, Gabriele; Forkel, Renate; Hirtl, Marcus; Honzak, Luka; Jiménez-Guerrero, Pedro; Langer, Matthias; Lorenz, Christof; Pérez, Juan L.; Pirovano, Guido; San José, Roberto; Tuccella, Paolo; Žabkar, Rahela

2014-05-01

Simulated feedback effects between aerosol concentrations and meteorological variables and on pollutant distributions are expected to depend on model configuration and the meteorological situation. In order to quantity these effects the second phase of the AQMEII (Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative; http://aqmeii.jrc.ec.europa.eu/) model inter-comparison exercise focused on online coupled meteorology-chemistry models. Among others, seven of the participating groups contributed simulations with WRF-Chem (Grell et al., 2005) for Europe. According to the common simulation strategy for AQMEII phase 2, the entire year 2010 was simulated as a sequence of 2-day time slices. For better comparability, the seven groups using WRF-Chem applied the same grid spacing of 23 km and shared common processing of initial and boundary conditions as well as anthropogenic and fire emissions. The simulations differ by the chosen chemistry option, aerosol module, cloud microphysics, and by the degree of aerosol-meteorology feedback that was considered. Results from this small ensemble are analyzed with respect to the effect of the different degrees of aerosol-meteorology feedback, i.e. no aerosol feedback, direct aerosol effect, and direct plus indirect aerosol effect, on large scale precipitation. Simulated precipitation fields were compared against daily precipitation observations as given by E-OBS 25 km resolution gridded dataset from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu). As expected, a first analysis confirms that the average impact of aerosol feedback is only very small on the considered spatial and temporal scale, i.e. due to the fact that initial meteorological conditions were taken every 3rd day from a one day non-feedback spin-up run. However, the analysis of the correlations between simulation and observations for the first and the second day indicates for some particular situations and regions a slightly better correlation when the aerosol indirect effect is accounted for.

A Comprehensive Analysis of Clouds, Radiation, and Precipitation in the North Pacific ITCZ in the NASA GISS ModelE GCM and Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanfield, Ryan Evan

Global circulation/climate models (GCMs) remain as an invaluable tool to predict future potential climate change. To best advise policy makers, assessing and increasing the accuracy of climate models is paramount. The treatment of clouds, radiation and precipitation in climate models and their associated feedbacks have long been one of the largest sources of uncertainty in predicting any potential future climate changes. Three versions of the NASA GISS ModelE GCM (the frozen CMIP5 version [C5], a post-CMIP5 version with modifications to cumulus and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations [P5], and the most recent version of the GCM which builds on the post-CMIP5 version with further modifications to convective cloud ice and cold pool parameterizations [E5]) have been compared with various satellite observations to analyze how recent modifications to the GCM has impacted cloud, radiation, and precipitation properties. In addition to global comparisons, two areas are showcased in regional analyses: the Eastern Pacific Northern ITCZ (EP-ITCZ), and Indonesia and the Western Pacific (INDO-WP). Changes to the cumulus and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations in the P5 version of the GCM have improved cloud and radiation estimations in areas of descending motion, such as the Southern Mid-Latitudes. Ice particle size and fall speed modifications in the E5 version of the GCM have decreased ice cloud water contents and cloud fractions globally while increasing precipitable water vapor in the model. Comparisons of IWC profiles show that the GCM simulated IWCs increase with height and peak in the upper portions of the atmosphere, while 2C-ICE observations peak in the lower levels of the atmosphere and decrease with height, effectively opposite of each other. Profiles of CF peak at lower heights in the E5 simulation, which will potentially increase outgoing longwave radiation due to higher cloud top temperatures, which will counterbalance the decrease in reflected shortwave associated with lower CFs and the thinner optical depths associated with decreased IWC and LWC in the E5 simulation. Vertical motion within the newest E5 simulation is greatly weakened over the EP-ITCZ region, potentially due to atmospheric loading from enhanced ice particle fall speeds. Comparatively, E5 simulated upward motion in the INDO-WP is stronger than its predecessors. Changes in the E5 simulation have resulted in stronger/weaker upward motion over the ocean/land in the INDO-WP region in comparison with both the C5 and P5 predecessors. Multimodel precipitation analysis shows that most of the GCMs tend to produce a wider ITCZ with stronger precipitation compared to GPCP and TRMM precipitation products. E5-simulated precipitation decreases and shifts Southward over the Easter Pacific ITCZ, which warrants further investigation into meridional heat transport and radiation fields.

Can regional climate engineering save the summer Arctic sea ice?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmes, S.; Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Holland, Marika; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

2014-02-01

Rapid declines in summer Arctic sea ice extent are projected under high-forcing future climate scenarios. Regional Arctic climate engineering has been suggested as an emergency strategy to save the sea ice. Model simulations of idealized regional dimming experiments compared to a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission simulation demonstrate the importance of both local and remote feedback mechanisms to the surface energy budget in high latitudes. With increasing artificial reduction in incoming shortwave radiation, the positive surface albedo feedback from Arctic sea ice loss is reduced. However, changes in Arctic clouds and the strongly increasing northward heat transport both counteract the direct dimming effects. A 4 times stronger local reduction in solar radiation compared to a global experiment is required to preserve summer Arctic sea ice area. Even with regional Arctic dimming, a reduction in the strength of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and a shut down of Labrador Sea deep convection are possible.

AIRS Observations Based Evaluation of Relative Climate Feedback Strengths on a GCM Grid-Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molnar, G. I.; Susskind, J.

2012-12-01

Climate feedback strengths, especially those associated with moist processes, still have a rather wide range in GCMs, the primary tools to predict future climate changes associated with man's ever increasing influences on our planet. Here, we make use of the first 10 years of AIRS observations to evaluate interrelationships/correlations of atmospheric moist parameter anomalies computed from AIRS Version 5 Level-3 products, and demonstrate their usefulness to assess relative feedback strengths. Although one may argue about the possible usability of shorter-term, observed climate parameter anomalies for estimating the strength of various (mostly moist processes related) feedbacks, recent works, in particular analyses by Dessler [2008, 2010], have demonstrated their usefulness in assessing global water vapor and cloud feedbacks. First, we create AIRS-observed monthly anomaly time-series (ATs) of outgoing longwave radiation, water vapor, clouds and temperature profile over a 10-year long (Sept. 2002 through Aug. 2012) period using 1x1 degree resolution (a common GCM grid-scale). Next, we evaluate the interrelationships of ATs of the above parameters with the corresponding 1x1 degree, as well as global surface temperature ATs. The latter provides insight comparable with more traditional climate feedback definitions (e. g., Zelinka and Hartmann, 2012) whilst the former is related to a new definition of "local (in surface temperature too) feedback strengths" on a GCM grid-scale. Comparing the correlation maps generated provides valuable new information on the spatial distribution of relative climate feedback strengths. We argue that for GCMs to be trusted for predicting longer-term climate variability, they should be able to reproduce these observed relationships/metrics as closely as possible. For this time period the main climate "forcing" was associated with the El Niño/La Niña variability (e. g., Dessler, 2010), so these assessments may not be descriptive of longer-term climate feedbacks due to global warming, for example. Nevertheless, one should take more confidence of greenhouse warming predictions of those GCMs that reproduce the (high quality observations-based) shorter-term feedback-relationships the best.

Shallow to Deep Convection Transition over a Heterogeneous Land Surface Using the Land Model Coupled Large-Eddy Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Zhang, Y.; Klein, S. A.

2017-12-01

The triggering of the land breeze, and hence the development of deep convection over heterogeneous land should be understood as a consequence of the complex processes involving various factors from land surface and atmosphere simultaneously. That is a sub-grid scale process that many large-scale models have difficulty incorporating it into the parameterization scheme partly due to lack of our understanding. Thus, it is imperative that we approach the problem using a high-resolution modeling framework. In this study, we use SAM-SLM (Lee and Khairoutdinov, 2015), a large-eddy simulation model coupled to a land model, to explore the cloud effect such as cold pool, the cloud shading and the soil moisture memory on the land breeze structure and the further development of cloud and precipitation over a heterogeneous land surface. The atmospheric large scale forcing and the initial sounding are taken from the new composite case study of the fair-weather, non-precipitating shallow cumuli at ARM SGP (Zhang et al., 2017). We model the land surface as a chess board pattern with alternating leaf area index (LAI). The patch contrast of the LAI is adjusted to encompass the weak to strong heterogeneity amplitude. The surface sensible- and latent heat fluxes are computed according to the given LAI representing the differential surface heating over a heterogeneous land surface. Separate from the surface forcing imposed from the originally modeled surface, the cases that transition into the moist convection can induce another layer of the surface heterogeneity from the 1) radiation shading by clouds, 2) adjusted soil moisture pattern by the rain, 3) spreading cold pool. First, we assess and quantifies the individual cloud effect on the land breeze and the moist convection under the weak wind to simplify the feedback processes. And then, the same set of experiments is repeated under sheared background wind with low level jet, a typical summer time wind pattern at ARM SGP site, to account for more realistic situations. Our goal is to assist answering the question: "Do the sub-grid scale land surface heterogeneity matter for the weather and climate modeling?" This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS- 736011.

Multiyear applications of WRF/Chem over continental U.S.: Model evaluation, variation trend, and impacts of boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yahya, Khairunnisa; He, Jian; Zhang, Yang

2015-12-01

Multiyear applications of an online-coupled meteorology-chemistry model allow an assessment of the variation trends in simulated meteorology, air quality, and their interactions to changes in emissions and meteorology, as well as the impacts of initial and boundary conditions (ICONs/BCONs) on simulated aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions over a period of time. In this work, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry version 3.4.1 (WRF/Chem v. 3.4.1) with the 2005 Carbon Bond mechanism coupled with the Volatility Basis Set module for secondary organic aerosol formation (WRF/Chem-CB05-VBS) is applied for multiple years (2001, 2006, and 2010) over continental U.S. This work also examines the changes in simulated air quality and meteorology due to changes in emissions and meteorology and the model's capability in reproducing the observed variation trends in species concentrations from 2001 to 2010. In addition, the impacts of the chemical ICONs/BCONs on model predictions are analyzed. ICONs/BCONs are downscaled from two global models, the modified Community Earth System Model/Community Atmosphere model version 5.1 (CESM/CAM v5.1) and the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate model (MACC). The evaluation of WRF/Chem-CB05-VBS simulations with the CESM ICONs/BCONs for 2001, 2006, and 2010 shows that temperature at 2 m (T2) is underpredicted for all three years likely due to inaccuracies in soil moisture and soil temperature, resulting in biases in surface relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation. With the exception of cloud fraction, other aerosol-cloud variables including aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness are underpredicted for all three years, resulting in overpredictions of radiation variables. The model performs well for O3 and particulate matter with diameter less than or equal to 2.5 (PM2.5) for all three years comparable to other studies from literature. The model is able to reproduce observed annual average trends in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations from 2001 to 2006 and from 2006 to 2010 but is less skillful in simulating their observed seasonal trends. The 2006 and 2010 results using CESM and MACC ICONs/BCONs are compared to analyze the impact of ICONs/BCONs on model performance and their feedbacks to aerosol, clouds, and radiation. Comparing to the simulations with MACC ICONs/BCONs, the simulations with the CESM ICONs/BCONs improve the performance of O3 mixing ratios (e.g., the normalized mean bias for maximum 8 h O3 is reduced from -17% to -1% in 2010), PM2.5 in 2010, and sulfate in 2006 (despite a slightly larger normalized mean bias for PM2.5 in 2006). The impacts of different ICONs/BCONs on simulated aerosol-cloud-radiation variables are not negligible, with larger impacts in 2006 compared to 2010.

Simulating the 2012 High Plains drought using three single column versions (SCM) of BUGS5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medina, I. D.; Denning, S.

2013-12-01

The impact of changes in the frequency and severity of drought on fresh water sustainability is a great concern for many regions of the world. One such location is the High Plains, where the local economy is primarily driven by fresh water withdrawals from the Ogallala Aquifer, which accounts for approximately 30% of total irrigation withdrawals from all U.S. aquifers combined. Modeling studies that focus on the feedback mechanisms that control the climate and eco-hydrology during times of drought are limited, and have used conventional General Circulation Models (GCMs) with grid length scales ranging from one hundred to several hundred kilometers. Additionally, these models utilize crude statistical parameterizations of cloud processes for estimating sub-grid fluxes of heat and moisture and have a poor representation of land surface heterogeneity. For this research, we will focus on the 2012 High Plains drought and will perform numerical simulations using three single column versions (SCM) of BUGS5 (Colorado State University (CSU) GCM coupled to the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB3)) at multiple sites overlying the Ogallala Aquifer for the 2011-2012 periods. In the first version of BUGS5, the model will be used in its standard bulk setting (single atmospheric column coupled to a single instance of SiB3), secondly, the Super-Parameterized Community Atmospheric Model (SP-CAM), a cloud resolving model (CRM consists of 64 atmospheric columns), will replace the single CSU GCM atmospheric parameterization and will be coupled to a single instance of SiB3, and for the third version of BUGS5, an instance of SiB3 will be coupled to each CRM column of the SP-CAM (64 CRM columns coupled to 64 instances of SiB3). To assess the physical realism of the land-atmosphere feedbacks simulated at each site by all versions of BUGS5, differences in simulated energy and moisture fluxes will be computed between the 2011 and 2012 period and will be compared to differences calculated using observational data from the AmeriFlux tower network for the same period. These results will give some insight to the land-atmosphere feedbacks GCMs may produce when atmospheric and land surface heterogeneity are included within a single framework. Furthermore, this research will provide a better understanding of model deficiencies in reproducing and predicting droughts in the future, which is essential to the economic, ecologic and social well being of the High Plains.

The sensitivity of Alpine summer convection to surrogate climate change: an intercomparison between convection-parameterizing and convection-resolving models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, Michael; Kröner, Nico; Fuhrer, Oliver; Lüthi, Daniel; Schmidli, Juerg; Stengel, Martin; Stöckli, Reto; Schär, Christoph

2018-04-01

Climate models project an increase in heavy precipitation events in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Important elements of such events are rain showers and thunderstorms, which are poorly represented in models with parameterized convection. In this study, simulations with 12 km horizontal grid spacing (convection-parameterizing model, CPM) and 2 km grid spacing (convection-resolving model, CRM) are employed to investigate the change in the diurnal cycle of convection with warmer climate. For this purpose, simulations of 11 days in June 2007 with a pronounced diurnal cycle of convection are compared with surrogate simulations from the same period. The surrogate climate simulations mimic a future climate with increased temperatures but unchanged relative humidity and similar synoptic-scale circulation. Two temperature scenarios are compared: one with homogeneous warming (HW) using a vertically uniform warming and the other with vertically dependent warming (VW) that enables changes in lapse rate. The two sets of simulations with parameterized and explicit convection exhibit substantial differences, some of which are well known from the literature. These include differences in the timing and amplitude of the diurnal cycle of convection, and the frequency of precipitation with low intensities. The response to climate change is much less studied. We can show that stratification changes have a strong influence on the changes in convection. Precipitation is strongly increasing for HW but decreasing for the VW simulations. For cloud type frequencies, virtually no changes are found for HW, but a substantial reduction in high clouds is found for VW. Further, we can show that the climate change signal strongly depends upon the horizontal resolution. In particular, significant differences between CPM and CRM are found in terms of the radiative feedbacks, with CRM exhibiting a stronger negative feedback in the top-of-the-atmosphere energy budget.

High-resolution RCMs as pioneers for future GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schar, C.; Ban, N.; Arteaga, A.; Charpilloz, C.; Di Girolamo, S.; Fuhrer, O.; Hoefler, T.; Leutwyler, D.; Lüthi, D.; Piaget, N.; Ruedisuehli, S.; Schlemmer, L.; Schulthess, T. C.; Wernli, H.

2017-12-01

Currently large efforts are underway to refine the horizontal resolution of global and regional climate models to O(1 km), with the intent to represent convective clouds explicitly rather than using semi-empirical parameterizations. This refinement will move the governing equations closer to first principles and is expected to reduce the uncertainties of climate models. High resolution is particularly attractive in order to better represent critical cloud feedback processes (e.g. related to global climate sensitivity and extratropical summer convection) and extreme events (such as heavy precipitation events, floods, and hurricanes). The presentation will be illustrated using decade-long simulations at 2 km horizontal grid spacing, some of these covering the European continent on a computational mesh with 1536x1536x60 grid points. To accomplish such simulations, use is made of emerging heterogeneous supercomputing architectures, using a version of the COSMO limited-area weather and climate model that is able to run entirely on GPUs. Results show that kilometer-scale resolution dramatically improves the simulation of precipitation in terms of the diurnal cycle and short-term extremes. The modeling framework is used to address changes of precipitation scaling with climate change. It is argued that already today, modern supercomputers would in principle enable global atmospheric convection-resolving climate simulations, provided appropriately refactored codes were available, and provided solutions were found to cope with the rapidly growing output volume. A discussion will be provided of key challenges affecting the design of future high-resolution climate models. It is suggested that km-scale RCMs should be exploited to pioneer this terrain, at a time when GCMs are not yet available at such resolutions. Areas of interest include the development of new parameterization schemes adequate for km-scale resolution, the exploration of new validation methodologies and data sets, the assessment of regional-scale climate feedback processes, and the development of alternative output analysis methodologies.