Separating the influence of temperature, drought, and fire on interannual variability in atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Wolf, Aaron S; Mu, Mingquan; Doney, Scott C; Morton, Douglas C; Kasibhatla, Prasad S; Miller, John B; Dlugokencky, Edward J; Randerson, James T

2014-11-01

The response of the carbon cycle in prognostic Earth system models (ESMs) contributes significant uncertainty to projections of global climate change. Quantifying contributions of known drivers of interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is important for improving the representation of terrestrial ecosystem processes in these ESMs. Several recent studies have identified the temperature dependence of tropical net ecosystem exchange (NEE) as a primary driver of this variability by analyzing a single, globally averaged time series of CO 2 anomalies. Here we examined how the temporal evolution of CO 2 in different latitude bands may be used to separate contributions from temperature stress, drought stress, and fire emissions to CO 2 variability. We developed atmospheric CO 2 patterns from each of these mechanisms during 1997-2011 using an atmospheric transport model. NEE responses to temperature, NEE responses to drought, and fire emissions all contributed significantly to CO 2 variability in each latitude band, suggesting that no single mechanism was the dominant driver. We found that the sum of drought and fire contributions to CO 2 variability exceeded direct NEE responses to temperature in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Additional sensitivity tests revealed that these contributions are masked by temporal and spatial smoothing of CO 2 observations. Accounting for fires, the sensitivity of tropical NEE to temperature stress decreased by 25% to 2.9 ± 0.4 Pg C yr -1  K -1 . These results underscore the need for accurate attribution of the drivers of CO 2 variability prior to using contemporary observations to constrain long-term ESM responses.

Variations in atmospheric CO2 growth rates coupled with tropical temperature

PubMed Central

Wang, Weile; Ciais, Philippe; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Canadell, Josep G.; Piao, Shilong; Sitch, Stephen; White, Michael A.; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Milesi, Cristina; Myneni, Ranga B.

2013-01-01

Previous studies have highlighted the occurrence and intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation as important drivers of the interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 growth rate, but the underlying biogeophysical mechanisms governing such connections remain unclear. Here we show a strong and persistent coupling (r2 ≈ 0.50) between interannual variations of the CO2 growth rate and tropical land–surface air temperature during 1959 to 2011, with a 1 °C tropical temperature anomaly leading to a 3.5 ± 0.6 Petagrams of carbon per year (PgC/y) CO2 growth-rate anomaly on average. Analysis of simulation results from Dynamic Global Vegetation Models suggests that this temperature–CO2 coupling is contributed mainly by the additive responses of heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and net primary production (NPP) to temperature variations in tropical ecosystems. However, we find a weaker and less consistent (r2 ≈ 0.25) interannual coupling between CO2 growth rate and tropical land precipitation than diagnosed from the Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, likely resulting from the subtractive responses of tropical Rh and NPP to precipitation anomalies that partly offset each other in the net ecosystem exchange (i.e., net ecosystem exchange ≈ Rh − NPP). Variations in other climate variables (e.g., large-scale cloudiness) and natural disturbances (e.g., volcanic eruptions) may induce transient reductions in the temperature–CO2 coupling, but the relationship is robust during the past 50 y and shows full recovery within a few years after any such major variability event. Therefore, it provides an important diagnostic tool for improved understanding of the contemporary and future global carbon cycle. PMID:23884654

CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration across dryland ecosystems of southwestern North America

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, such analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO2 exchange in drylands. Here we address this observation gap with eddy covariance data fr...

Seasonal and interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettinger, Michael D.; Ghil, Michael

1998-02-01

Interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa are almost masked by the seasonal cycle and a strong trend; at the South Pole, the seasonal cycle is small and is almost lost in the trend and interannual variations. Singular-spectrum analysis (SSA) is used here to isolate and reconstruct interannual signals at both sites and to visualize recent decadal changes in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. Analysis of the Mauna Loa CO2 series illustrates a hastening of the CO2 seasonal cycle, a close temporal relation between Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean temperature trends and the amplitude of the seasonal CO2 cycle, and tentative ties between the latter and seasonality changes in temperature over the NH continents. Variations of the seasonal CO2 cycle at the South Pole differ from those at Mauna Loa: it is phase changes of the seasonal cycle at the South Pole, rather than amplitude changes, that parallel hemispheric and global temperature trends. The seasonal CO2 cycles exhibit earlier occurrences of the seasons by 7days at Mauna Loa and 18days at the South Pole. Interannual CO2 variations are shared at the two locations, appear to respond to tropical processes, and can be decomposed mostly into two periodicities, around (3years)1 and (4years)1, respectively. Joint SSA analyses of CO2 concentrations and tropical climate indices isolate a shared mode with a quasi-triennial (QT) period in which the CO2 and sea-surface temperature (SST) participation are in phase opposition. The other shared mode has a quasi-quadrennial (QQ) period and CO2 variations are in phase with the corresponding tropical SST variations throughout the tropics. Together these interannual modes exhibit a mean lag between tropical SSTs and CO2 variations of about 6 8months, with SST leading. Analysis of the QT and QQ signals in global gridded SSTs, joint SSA of CO2 and δ13C isotopic ratios, and SSA of CO2 and NH-land temperatures indicate that the QT variations in CO2 mostly reflect upwelling variations in the eastern tropical Pacific. QQ variations are dominated by the CO2 signature of terrestrial-ecosystem response to global QQ climate variations. Climate variations associated with these two interannual components of tropical variability have very different effects on global climate and, especially, on terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle.

How does the terrestrial carbon exchange respond to inter-annual climatic variations? A quantification based on atmospheric CO2 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödenbeck, Christian; Zaehle, Sönke; Keeling, Ralph; Heimann, Martin

2018-04-01

The response of the terrestrial net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 to climate variations and trends may crucially determine the future climate trajectory. Here we directly quantify this response on inter-annual timescales by building a linear regression of inter-annual NEE anomalies against observed air temperature anomalies into an atmospheric inverse calculation based on long-term atmospheric CO2 observations. This allows us to estimate the sensitivity of NEE to inter-annual variations in temperature (seen as a climate proxy) resolved in space and with season. As this sensitivity comprises both direct temperature effects and the effects of other climate variables co-varying with temperature, we interpret it as inter-annual climate sensitivity. We find distinct seasonal patterns of this sensitivity in the northern extratropics that are consistent with the expected seasonal responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and fire. Within uncertainties, these sensitivity patterns are consistent with independent inferences from eddy covariance data. On large spatial scales, northern extratropical and tropical inter-annual NEE variations inferred from the NEE-T regression are very similar to the estimates of an atmospheric inversion with explicit inter-annual degrees of freedom. The results of this study offer a way to benchmark ecosystem process models in more detail than existing effective global climate sensitivities. The results can also be used to gap-fill or extrapolate observational records or to separate inter-annual variations from longer-term trends.

Inter-annual variability in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions due to temperature anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bréon, F.-M.; Boucher, O.; Brender, P.

2017-07-01

It is well known that short-term (i.e. interannual) variations in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are closely related to the evolution of the national economies. Nevertheless, a fraction of the CO2 emissions are linked to domestic and business heating and cooling, which can be expected to be related to the meteorology, independently of the economy. Here, we analyse whether the signature of the inter-annual temperature anomalies is discernible in the time series of CO2 emissions at the country scale. Our analysis shows that, for many countries, there is a clear positive correlation between a heating-degree-person index and the component of the CO2 emissions that is not explained by the economy as quantified by the gross domestic product (GDP). Similarly, several countries show a positive correlation between a cooling-degree-person (CDP) index and CO2 emissions. The slope of the linear relationship for heating is on the order of 0.5-1 kg CO2 (degree-day-person)-1 but with significant country-to-country variations. A similar relationship for cooling shows even greater diversity. We further show that the inter-annual climate anomalies have a small but significant impact on the annual growth rate of CO2 emissions, both at the national and global scale. Such a meteorological effect was a significant contribution to the rather small and unexpected global emission growth rate in 2014 while its contribution to the near zero emission growth in 2015 was insignificant.

Large interannual variability in net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange of a disturbed temperate peatland.

PubMed

Aslan-Sungur, Guler; Lee, Xuhui; Evrendilek, Fatih; Karakaya, Nusret

2016-06-01

Peatland ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle as significant C sinks. However, human-induced disturbances can turn these sinks into sources of atmospheric CO2. Long-term measurements are needed to understand seasonal and interannual variability of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and effects of hydrological conditions and their disturbances on C fluxes. Continuous eddy-covariance measurements of NEE were conducted between August 2010 and April 2014 at Yenicaga temperate peatland (Turkey), which was drained for agricultural usage and for peat mining until 2009. Annual NEE during the three full years of measurement indicated that the peatland acted as a CO2 source with large interannual variability, at rates of 246, 244 and 663 g Cm(-2)yr(-1) for 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively, except for June 2011, and May to July 2012. The emission strengths were comparable to those found for severely disturbed tropical peatlands. The peak CO2 emissions occurred in the dry summer of 2013 when water table level (WTL) was below a threshold value of -60 cm and soil water content (SCW) below a threshold value of 70% by volume. Water availability index was found to have a stronger explanatory power for variations in monthly ecosystem respiration (ER) than the traditional water status indicators (SCW and WTL). Air temperature, evapotranspiration and vapor pressure deficient were the most significant variables strongly correlated with NEE and its component fluxes of gross primary production and ER. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the Interannual Variability in Global Carbon Fluxes from Heterotrophic Respiration using a Testbed and Pulse Response Modeling Approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basile, S.; Wieder, W. R.; Hartman, M. D.; Keppel-Aleks, G.

2017-12-01

The atmospheric growth rate of carbon dioxide (CO2) varies interannually and is strongly correlated with climate factors, including temperature and drought. These climate drivers affect vegetation productivity and the rate of respiration of organic matter to CO2 (heterotrophic respiration). Here we quantified the interannual variability in global carbon fluxes from heterotrophic respiration and their relationship to climate drivers. We used a novel testbed approach to simulate respiration, then simulated the imprint that these modeled heterotrophic fluxes have on atmospheric CO2 using an idealized pulse response model. Two of the testbed formulations (MIMICS and CORPSE) are microbially explicit by incorporation of microbial physiological tradeoffs and microbial activity in soil near fine roots (rhizosphere soils), respectively, while the third model (CASA) uses a CENTURY-like microbially implicit framework. Modeled respiration exhibited subtle differences, with MIMICS showing the largest seasonal amplitude in the Northern Hemisphere and the strongest correlation with global temperature variations. At Mauna Loa (MLO) the simulated seasonal CO2 amplitude in response to global heterotrophic respiration ranged by a factor of 1.5 across the models with the MIMICS and CASA models producing the higher amplitude responses between 1987 and 2006. The seasonal CO2 amplitude at MLO varied by about 5% interannually, with the largest variation in the MIMICS model. In the Northern Hemisphere there was a similar response range in average peak-to-trough seasonal CO2 but all models showed slightly higher amplitude values. Comparatively in the Northern Hemisphere, the average seasonal CO2 amplitude in response to respiration ranged between 30%-41% of the seasonal CO2 amplitude in response to net primary productivity. We expect that exploring the imprint of heterotrophic respiration on atmospheric CO2 from these three different models will improve our understanding of the imprint that heterotrophic respiration imparts on atmospheric data. The aim of this work is to ultimately yield an approach for combining CO2 observations with remote sensing-based observations of terrestrial productivity to produce regional constraints on heterotrophic respiration.

Variability of Springtime Transpacific Pollution Transport During 2000-2006: The INTEX-5 Mission in the Context of Previous Years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pfister, G. G.; Emmons, L. K.; Edwards, D. P.; Arellano, A.; Sachse, G.; Campos, T.

2010-01-01

We analyze the transport of pollution across the Pacific during the NASA INTEX-B (Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment Part 8) campaign in spring 2006 and examine how this year compares to the time period for 2000 through 2006. In addition to aircraft measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) collected during INTEX-B, we include in this study multi-year satellite retrievals of CO from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument and simulations from the chemistry transport model MOZART-4. Model tracers are used to examine the contributions of different source regions and source types to pollution levels over the Pacific. Additional modeling studies are performed to separate the impacts of inter-annual variability in meteorology and .dynamics from changes in source strength. interannual variability in the tropospheric CO burden over the Pacific and the US as estimated from the MOPITT data range up to 7% and a somewhat smaller estimate (5%) is derived from the model. When keeping the emissions in the model constant between years, the year-to-year changes are reduced (2%), but show that in addition to changes in emissions, variable meteorological conditions also impact transpacific pollution transport. We estimate that about 113 of the variability in the tropospheric CO loading over the contiguous US is explained by changes in emissions and about 213 by changes in meteorology and transport. Biomass burning sources are found to be a larger driver for inter-annual variability in the CO loading compared to fossil and biofuel sources or photochemical CO production even though their absolute contributions are smaller. Source contribution analysis shows that the aircraft sampling during INTEX-B was fairly representative of the larger scale region, but with a slight bias towards higher influence from Asian contributions.

Mapping of the air-sea CO2 flux in the Arctic Ocean and its adjacent seas: Basin-wide distribution and seasonal to interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasunaka, Sayaka; Murata, Akihiko; Watanabe, Eiji; Chierici, Melissa; Fransson, Agneta; van Heuven, Steven; Hoppema, Mario; Ishii, Masao; Johannessen, Truls; Kosugi, Naohiro; Lauvset, Siv K.; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Nishino, Shigeto; Omar, Abdirahman M.; Olsen, Are; Sasano, Daisuke; Takahashi, Taro; Wanninkhof, Rik

2016-09-01

We produced 204 monthly maps of the air-sea CO2 flux in the Arctic north of 60°N, including the Arctic Ocean and its adjacent seas, from January 1997 to December 2013 by using a self-organizing map technique. The partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) in surface water data were obtained by shipboard underway measurements or calculated from alkalinity and total inorganic carbon of surface water samples. Subsequently, we investigated the basin-wide distribution and seasonal to interannual variability of the CO2 fluxes. The 17-year annual mean CO2 flux shows that all areas of the Arctic Ocean and its adjacent seas were net CO2 sinks. The estimated annual CO2 uptake by the Arctic Ocean was 180 TgC yr-1. The CO2 influx was strongest in winter in the Greenland/Norwegian Seas (>15 mmol m-2 day-1) and the Barents Sea (>12 mmol m-2 day-1) because of strong winds, and strongest in summer in the Chukchi Sea (∼10 mmol m-2 day-1) because of the sea-ice retreat. In recent years, the CO2 uptake has increased in the Greenland/Norwegian Sea and decreased in the southern Barents Sea, owing to increased and decreased air-sea pCO2 differences, respectively.

Inter-annual variability of carbon fluxes in temperate forest ecosystems: effects of biotic and abiotic factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Hufkens, K.; Munger, J. W.; Bohrer, G.; Brzostek, E. R.; Richardson, A. D.

2014-12-01

Carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems are influenced by both abiotic and biotic factors. Abiotic factors, such as variation in meteorological conditions, directly drive biophysical and biogeochemical processes; biotic factors, referring to the inherent properties of the ecosystem components, reflect the internal regulating effects including temporal dynamics and memory. The magnitude of the effect of abiotic and biotic factors on forest ecosystem carbon exchange has been suggested to vary at different time scales. In this study, we design and conduct a model-data fusion experiment to investigate the role and relative importance of the biotic and abiotic factors for inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of temperate deciduous forest ecosystems in the Northeastern US. A process-based model (FöBAAR) is parameterized at four eddy-covariance sites using all available flux and biometric measurements. We conducted a "transplant" modeling experiment, that is, cross- site and parameter simulations with different combinations of site meteorology and parameters. Using wavelet analysis and variance partitioning techniques, analysis of model predictions identifies both spatial variant and spatially invariant parameters. Variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP), with relative contributions varying from hourly to yearly time scales. The inter-annual variability of GPP and NEE is more regulated by meteorological forcing, but spatial variability in certain model parameters (biotic response) has more substantial effects on the inter-annual variability of ecosystem respiration (Reco) through the effects on carbon pools. Both the biotic and abiotic factors play significant roles in modulating the spatial and temporal variability in terrestrial carbon cycling in the region. Together, our study quantifies the relative importance of both, and calls for better understanding of them to better predict regional CO2 exchanges.

Surface Ocean pCO2 Seasonality and Sea-Air CO2 Flux Estimates for the North American East Coast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Signorini, Sergio; Mannino, Antonio; Najjar, Raymond G., Jr.; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Cai, Wei-Jun; Salisbury, Joe; Wang, Zhaohui Aleck; Thomas, Helmuth; Shadwick, Elizabeth

2013-01-01

Underway and in situ observations of surface ocean pCO2, combined with satellite data, were used to develop pCO2 regional algorithms to analyze the seasonal and interannual variability of surface ocean pCO2 and sea-air CO2 flux for five physically and biologically distinct regions of the eastern North American continental shelf: the South Atlantic Bight (SAB), the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB), the Gulf of Maine (GoM), Nantucket Shoals and Georges Bank (NS+GB), and the Scotian Shelf (SS). Temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon variability are the most influential factors driving the seasonality of pCO2. Estimates of the sea-air CO2 flux were derived from the available pCO2 data, as well as from the pCO2 reconstructed by the algorithm. Two different gas exchange parameterizations were used. The SS, GB+NS, MAB, and SAB regions are net sinks of atmospheric CO2 while the GoM is a weak source. The estimates vary depending on the use of surface ocean pCO2 from the data or algorithm, as well as with the use of the two different gas exchange parameterizations. Most of the regional estimates are in general agreement with previous studies when the range of uncertainty and interannual variability are taken into account. According to the algorithm, the average annual uptake of atmospheric CO2 by eastern North American continental shelf waters is found to be between 3.4 and 5.4 Tg C/yr (areal average of 0.7 to 1.0 mol CO2 /sq m/yr) over the period 2003-2010.

Inversion analysis of estimating interannual variability and its uncertainties in biotic and abiotic parameters of a parsimonious physiologically based model after wind disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toda, M.; Yokozawa, M.; Richardson, A. D.; Kohyama, T.

2011-12-01

The effects of wind disturbance on interannual variability in ecosystem CO2 exchange have been assessed in two forests in northern Japan, i.e., a young, even-aged, monocultured, deciduous forest and an uneven-aged mixed forest of evergreen and deciduous trees, including some over 200 years old using eddy covariance (EC) measurements during 2004-2008. The EC measurements have indicated that photosynthetic recovery of trees after a huge typhoon occurred during early September in 2004 activated annual carbon uptake of both forests due to changes in physiological response of tree leaves during their growth stages. However, little have been resolved about what biotic and abiotic factors regulated interannual variability in heat, water and carbon exchange between an atmosphere and forests. In recent years, an inverse modeling analysis has been utilized as a powerful tool to estimate biotic and abiotic parameters that might affect heat, water and CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and forest of a parsimonious physiologically based model. We conducted the Bayesian inverse model analysis for the model with the EC measurements. The preliminary result showed that the above model-derived NEE values were consistent with observed ones on the hourly basis with optimized parameters by Baysian inversion. In the presentation, we would examine interannual variability in biotic and abiotic parameters related to heat, water and carbon exchange between the atmosphere and forests after disturbance by typhoon.

Biosphere model simulations of interannual variability in terrestrial 13C/12C exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Velde, I. R.; Miller, J. B.; Schaefer, K.; Masarie, K. A.; Denning, S.; White, J. W. C.; Tans, P. P.; Krol, M. C.; Peters, W.

2013-09-01

Previous studies suggest that a large part of the variability in the atmospheric ratio of 13CO2/12CO2originates from carbon exchange with the terrestrial biosphere rather than with the oceans. Since this variability is used to quantitatively partition the total carbon sink, we here investigate the contribution of interannual variability (IAV) in biospheric exchange to the observed atmospheric 13C variations. We use the Simple Biosphere - Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach biogeochemical model, including a detailed isotopic fractionation scheme, separate 12C and 13C biogeochemical pools, and satellite-observed fire disturbances. This model of 12CO2 and 13CO2 thus also produces return fluxes of 13CO2from its differently aged pools, contributing to the so-called disequilibrium flux. Our simulated terrestrial 13C budget closely resembles previously published model results for plant discrimination and disequilibrium fluxes and similarly suggests that variations in C3 discrimination and year-to-year variations in C3and C4 productivity are the main drivers of their IAV. But the year-to-year variability in the isotopic disequilibrium flux is much lower (1σ=±1.5 PgC ‰ yr-1) than required (±12.5 PgC ‰ yr-1) to match atmospheric observations, under the common assumption of low variability in net ocean CO2 fluxes. This contrasts with earlier published results. It is currently unclear how to increase IAV in these drivers suggesting that SiBCASA still misses processes that enhance variability in plant discrimination and relative C3/C4productivity. Alternatively, 13C budget terms other than terrestrial disequilibrium fluxes, including possibly the atmospheric growth rate, must have significantly different IAV in order to close the atmospheric 13C budget on a year-to-year basis.

The 2015-2016 El Nino and the Response of the Carbon Cycle: Findings from NASA's OCO-2 Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chatterjee, Abhishek; Schimel, D.; Stephens, B.; Crisp, D.; Eldering, A.; Feely, R.; Gierach, M.; Gunson, M.; Keeling, R.; Landschuetzer, P.;

Implications of Uncertainty in Fossil Fuel Emissions for Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, A. W.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Mao, J.; Andres, R. J.

2017-12-01

Given observations of the increase in atmospheric CO2, estimates of anthropogenic emissions and models of oceanic CO2 uptake, one can estimate net global CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems as the residual of the balanced global carbon budget. Estimates from the Global Carbon Project 2016 show that terrestrial ecosystems are a growing sink for atmospheric CO2 (averaging 2.12 Gt C y-1 for the period 1959-2015 with a growth rate of 0.03 Gt C y-1 per year) but with considerable year-to-year variability (standard deviation of 1.07 Gt C y-1). Within the uncertainty of the observations, emissions estimates and ocean modeling, this residual calculation is a robust estimate of a global terrestrial sink for CO2. A task of terrestrial ecosystem science is to explain the trend and variability in this estimate. However, "within the uncertainty" is an important caveat. The uncertainty (2σ; 95% confidence interval) in fossil fuel emissions is 8.4% (±0.8 Gt C in 2015). Combined with uncertainty in other carbon budget components, the 2σ uncertainty surrounding the global net terrestrial ecosystem CO2 exchange is ±1.6 Gt C y-1. Ignoring the uncertainty, the estimate of a general terrestrial sink includes 2 years (1987 and 1998) in which terrestrial ecosystems are a small source of CO2 to the atmosphere. However, with 2σ uncertainty, terrestrial ecosystems may have been a source in as many as 18 years. We examine how well global terrestrial biosphere models simulate the trend and interannual variability of the global-budget estimate of the terrestrial sink within the context of this uncertainty (e.g., which models fall outside the 2σ uncertainty and in what years). Models are generally capable of reproducing the trend in net terrestrial exchange, but are less able to capture interannual variability and often fall outside the 2σ uncertainty. The trend in the residual carbon budget estimate is primarily associated with the increase in atmospheric CO2, while interannual variation is related to variations in global land-surface temperature with weaker sinks in warmer years. We examine whether these relationships are reproduced in models. Their absence might explain weaknesses in model simulations or in the reconstruction of historical climate used as drivers in model intercomparison projects (MIPs).

Source Attribution and Interannual Variability of Arctic Pollution in Spring Constrained by Aircraft (ARCTAS, ARCPAC) and Satellite (AIRS) Observations of Carbon Monoxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, J. A.; Jacob, D. J.; Purdy, M. T.; Kopacz, M.; LeSager, P.; Carouge, C.; Holmes, C. D.; Yantosca, R. M.; Batchelor, R. L.; Strong, K.;

Carbon dioxide and methane dynamics in estuaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borges, Alberto V.; Abril, Gwenaël.

2010-05-01

We carried out a literature overview to synthesize current knowledge on CO2 and CH4 dynamics and fluxes with the atmosphere in estuarine environments. Estuarine systems are highly dynamic in terms of carbon cycling and emit CO2 to the atmosphere at rates that are quantitatively significant for the global C cycle. This emission of CO2 to the atmosphere is strongly supported by the net heterotrophic nature of these ecosystems. The robustness of the evaluation of the emission of CO2 from estuarine ecosystems has increased in last years due to increasing data availability and improvements in the surface area estimates by types. At present, the lack of sufficient data is the major limitation in the quantification of the spatial and temporal variability of CO2 fluxes in estuarine environments. Regarding future observations, there is also a need for sustained measurements to unravel inter-annual variability and long-term trends of CO2 and CH4 in estuarine environments. Indeed, due to the strong linkage with river catchements, inter-annual variability of CO2 and CH4 in estuarine environments is expected to be strong. Data used in the present synthesis were either obtained by the authors, data mined from publications or communicated by colleagues. There is a need for publicly available and quality checked data-bases for CO2 and CH4 in estuarine environments. Not only cross-system meta-analysis of data (CO2, CH4, O2, …) can be enlightening as explored in the present work, but also considering the uncertainties in the evaluation of the gas transfer velocity, there could be a need for future re-evaluations of air-water CO2 and CH4 fluxes, requiring access to the raw pCO2 and [CH4] data.

Impact of the biomass burning on methane variability during dry years in the Amazon measured from an aircraft and the AIRS sensor.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Igor Oliveira; Andreoli, Rita Valéria; Kayano, Mary Toshie; de Sousa, Thaiane Rodrigues; Medeiros, Adan Sady; Guimarães, Patrícia Costa; Barbosa, Cybelli G G; Godoi, Ricardo H M; Martin, Scot T; de Souza, Rodrigo Augusto Ferreira

2018-05-15

The present study examines the spatiotemporal variability and interrelations of the atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), carbon monoxide (CO) and biomass burning (BB) outbreaks retrieved from satellite data over the Amazon region during the 2003-2012 period. In the climatological context, we found consistent seasonal cycles of BB outbreaks and CO in the Amazon, both variables showing a peak during the dry season. The dominant CO variability mode features the largest positive loadings in the southern Amazon, and describes the interannual CO variations related to BB outbreaks along the deforestation arc during the dry season. In line with CO variability and BB outbreaks, the results show strong correspondence with the spatiotemporal variability of CH 4 in the southern Amazon during years of intense drought. Indeed, the areas with the largest positive CH 4 anomalies in southern Amazon overlap the areas with high BB outbreaks and positive CO anomalies. The analyses also showed that high (low) BB outbreaks in the southern Amazon occur during dry (wet) years. In consequence, the interannual climate variability modulates the BB outbreaks in the southern Amazon, which in turn have considerable impacts on CO and CH 4 interannual variability in the region. Therefore, the BB outbreaks might play a major role in modulating the CH 4 and CO variations, at least in the southern Amazon. This study also provides a comparison between the estimate of satellite and aircraft measurements for the CH 4 over the southern Amazon, which indicates relatively small differences from the aircraft measurements in the lower troposphere, with errors ranging from 0.18% to 1.76%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Response of Water Use Efficiency to Global Environmental Change Based on Output From Terrestrial Biosphere Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Sha; Yu, Bofu; Schwalm, Christopher R.

Here, water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO 2more » explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO 2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO 2, but this direct CO 2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO 2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO 2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.« less

Response of Water Use Efficiency to Global Environmental Change Based on Output From Terrestrial Biosphere Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Sha; Yu, Bofu; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Ciais, Philippe; Zhang, Yao; Fisher, Joshua B.; Michalak, Anna M.; Wang, Weile; Poulter, Benjamin; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Niu, Shuli; Mao, Jiafu; Jain, Atul; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Ito, Akihiko; Wei, Yaxing; Huang, Yuefei; Wang, Guangqian

2017-11-01

Water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO2 explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO2, but this direct CO2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.

Interannual, seasonal, and diel variability in the carbon isotope composition of respiration in a C3/C4 agricultural ecosystem

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The stable carbon isotope ratio 13CO2/12CO2 is a valuable tool for understanding the processes controlling the autotrophic (FRa) and heterotrophic (FRh) contributions to ecosystem respiration (FR) as well as influences of photosynthesis on respiration. There is increasing interest in the temporal va...

CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration across dryland ecosystems of southwestern North America.

PubMed

Biederman, Joel A; Scott, Russell L; Bell, Tom W; Bowling, David R; Dore, Sabina; Garatuza-Payan, Jaime; Kolb, Thomas E; Krishnan, Praveena; Krofcheck, Dan J; Litvak, Marcy E; Maurer, Gregory E; Meyers, Tilden P; Oechel, Walter C; Papuga, Shirley A; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E; Rodriguez, Julio C; Smith, William K; Vargas, Rodrigo; Watts, Christopher J; Yepez, Enrico A; Goulden, Michael L

2017-10-01

Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO 2 sink. However, such analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO 2 exchange in drylands. Here we address this observation gap with eddy covariance data from 25 sites in the water-limited Southwest region of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of 100-1000 mm, annual temperatures of 2-25°C, and records of 3-10 years (150 site-years in total). Annual fluxes were integrated using site-specific ecohydrologic years to group precipitation with resulting ecosystem exchanges. We found a wide range of carbon sink/source function, with mean annual net ecosystem production (NEP) varying from -350 to +330 gCm -2 across sites with diverse vegetation types, contrasting with the more constant sink typically measured in mesic ecosystems. In this region, only forest-dominated sites were consistent carbon sinks. Interannual variability of NEP, gross ecosystem production (GEP), and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) was larger than for mesic regions, and half the sites switched between functioning as C sinks/C sources in wet/dry years. The sites demonstrated coherent responses of GEP and NEP to anomalies in annual evapotranspiration (ET), used here as a proxy for annually available water after hydrologic losses. Notably, GEP and R eco were negatively related to temperature, both interannually within site and spatially across sites, in contrast to positive temperature effects commonly reported for mesic ecosystems. Models based on MODIS satellite observations matched the cross-site spatial pattern in mean annual GEP but consistently underestimated mean annual ET by ~50%. Importantly, the MODIS-based models captured only 20-30% of interannual variation magnitude. These results suggest the contribution of this dryland region to variability of regional to global CO 2 exchange may be up to 3-5 times larger than current estimates. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

The role of ecosystem memory in predicting inter-annual variations of the tropical carbon balance.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloom, A. A.; Liu, J.; Bowman, K. W.; Konings, A. G.; Saatchi, S.; Worden, J. R.; Worden, H. M.; Jiang, Z.; Parazoo, N.; Williams, M. D.; Schimel, D.

2017-12-01

Understanding the trajectory of the tropical carbon balance remains challenging, in part due to large uncertainties in the integrated response of carbon cycle processes to climate variability. Satellite observations atmospheric CO2 from GOSAT and OCO-2, together with ancillary satellite measurements, provide crucial constraints on continental-scale terrestrial carbon fluxes. However, an integrated understanding of both climate forcings and legacy effects (or "ecosystem memory") on the terrestrial carbon balance is ultimately needed to reduce uncertainty on its future trajectory. Here we use the CARbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) diagnostic model-data fusion approach - constrained by an array of C cycle satellite surface observations, including MODIS leaf area, biomass, GOSAT solar-induced fluorescence, as well as "top-down" atmospheric inversion estimates of CO2 and CO surface fluxes from the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) - to constrain and predict spatially-explicit tropical carbon state variables during 2010-2015. We find that the combined assimilation of land surface and atmospheric datasets places key constraints on the temperature sensitivity and first order carbon-water feedbacks throughout the tropics and combustion factors within biomass burning regions. By varying the duration of the assimilation period, we find that the prediction skill on inter-annual net biospheric exchange is primarily limited by record length rather than model structure and process representation. We show that across all tropical biomes, quantitative knowledge of memory effects - which account for 30-50% of interannual variations across the tropics - is critical for understanding and ultimately predicting the inter-annual tropical carbon balance.

Estimates of CO2 from fires in the United States: implications for carbon management.

PubMed

Wiedinmyer, Christine; Neff, Jason C

2007-11-01

Fires emit significant amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere. These emissions, however, are highly variable in both space and time. Additionally, CO2 emissions estimates from fires are very uncertain. The combination of high spatial and temporal variability and substantial uncertainty associated with fire CO2 emissions can be problematic to efforts to develop remote sensing, monitoring, and inverse modeling techniques to quantify carbon fluxes at the continental scale. Policy and carbon management decisions based on atmospheric sampling/modeling techniques must account for the impact of fire CO2 emissions; a task that may prove very difficult for the foreseeable future. This paper addresses the variability of CO2 emissions from fires across the US, how these emissions compare to anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and Net Primary Productivity, and the potential implications for monitoring programs and policy development. Average annual CO2 emissions from fires in the lower 48 (LOWER48) states from 2002-2006 are estimated to be 213 (+/- 50 std. dev.) Tg CO2 yr-1 and 80 (+/- 89 std. dev.) Tg CO2 yr-1 in Alaska. These estimates have significant interannual and spatial variability. Needleleaf forests in the Southeastern US and the Western US are the dominant source regions for US fire CO2 emissions. Very high emission years typically coincide with droughts, and climatic variability is a major driver of the high interannual and spatial variation in fire emissions. The amount of CO2 emitted from fires in the US is equivalent to 4-6% of anthropogenic emissions at the continental scale and, at the state-level, fire emissions of CO2 can, in some cases, exceed annual emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel usage. The CO2 released from fires, overall, is a small fraction of the estimated average annual Net Primary Productivity and, unlike fossil fuel CO2 emissions, the pulsed emissions of CO2 during fires are partially counterbalanced by uptake of CO2 by regrowing vegetation in the decades following fire. Changes in fire severity and frequency can, however, lead to net changes in atmospheric CO2 and the short-term impacts of fire emissions on monitoring, modeling, and carbon management policy are substantial.

The 2015-2016 El Niño and the response of the carbon cycle: Findings from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, A.; Schimel, D.; Stephens, B. B.; Crisp, D.; Eldering, A.; Gunson, M. R.; Feely, R. A.; Gierach, M. M.; Keeling, R. F.; Sutton, A. J.; Weir, B.

2017-12-01

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important mode of tropical climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales. Correlations between atmospheric CO2 growth rate and ENSO activity are relatively well known but the magnitude of this correlation, the contribution from tropical marine vs. terrestrial flux components, and the causal mechanisms, are poorly constrained in space and time. The launch of NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission in July 2014 was rather timely given the development of strong ENSO conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean in 2015-2016. In this presentation, we will discuss how the high-density observations from OCO-2 provided us with a novel dataset to resolve the linkages between El Niño and atmospheric CO2. Along with information from in situ observations of ΔpCO2 from NOAA's Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) project and atmospheric CO2 from the Scripps CO2 Program, and other remote-sensing missions, we are able to piece together the time dependent response of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the Tropics. Our findings confirm the hypothesis from studies following the 1997-1998 El Niño event that an early reduction in CO2 outgassing from the tropical Pacific Ocean is later reversed by enhanced net CO2 emissions from the terrestrial biosphere. This implies that a component of the interannual variability (IAV) in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2, which has typically been used to constrain the climate sensitivity of tropical land carbon fluxes, is strongly influenced and modified by ocean fluxes during the early phase of the ENSO event. Our analyses shed further light on the understanding of the marine vs. terrestrial partitioning of tropical carbon fluxes during El Niño events, their relative contributions to the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate, and provide clues about the sensitivity of the carbon cycle to climate forcing on interannual time scales.

Compensatory Water Effects Link Yearly Global Land CO2 Sink Changes to Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Tramontana, Gianluca; Viovy, Nicolas; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Wang, Ying-Ping; Weber, Ulrich; Weber, Ulrich; Zaehle, Soenke; Zeng, Ning;

Using the concept of Shannon's Entropy to evaluate impacts of climate extremes on interannual variability in ecosystem CO2 fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, S.; Baldocchi, D. D.

2016-12-01

Although interannual variability in ecosystem CO2 fluxes have been observed in the field and described with empirical or process-based models, we still lack tools for evaluating and comparing impacts of climate extremes or unusual biogeophysical events on the variability. We examined a 15-year-long dataset of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) measured at a woody savanna and a grassland site in California from 2000 to 2015. We proposed a conceptual framework to quantify season contributions by computing relatively contributions of each season to annual anomalies of gross ecosystem productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco). According to the framework, we calculated the Shannon's Entropy for each year. The values of Shannon Entropy were higher in the year that variations in GPP and Reco were beyond predictions of empirical models established for the study site. We specifically examined the outliers compared to model predictions and concluded that the outliers were related to occurrences of unexpected biogeophysical events in those years. This study offers a new application of Shannon's Entropy in understanding complicated biophysical and ecological processes involved in ecosystem carbon cycling.

Holocene moisture and East Asian summer monsoon evolution in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau recorded by Lake Qinghai and its environs: A review of conflicting proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, A.; Schimel, D.; Stephens, B. B.; Crisp, D.; Eldering, A.; Gunson, M. R.; Feely, R. A.; Gierach, M. M.; Keeling, R. F.; Sutton, A. J.; Weir, B.

2016-12-01

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important mode of tropical climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales. Correlations between atmospheric CO2 growth rate and ENSO activity are relatively well known but the magnitude of this correlation, the contribution from tropical marine vs. terrestrial flux components, and the causal mechanisms, are poorly constrained in space and time. The launch of NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission in July 2014 was rather timely given the development of strong ENSO conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean in 2015-2016. In this presentation, we will discuss how the high-density observations from OCO-2 provided us with a novel dataset to resolve the linkages between El Niño and atmospheric CO2. Along with information from in situ observations of ΔpCO2 from NOAA's Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) project and atmospheric CO2 from the Scripps CO2 Program, and other remote-sensing missions, we are able to piece together the time dependent response of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the Tropics. Our findings confirm the hypothesis from studies following the 1997-1998 El Niño event that an early reduction in CO2 outgassing from the tropical Pacific Ocean is later reversed by enhanced net CO2 emissions from the terrestrial biosphere. This implies that a component of the interannual variability (IAV) in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2, which has typically been used to constrain the climate sensitivity of tropical land carbon fluxes, is strongly influenced and modified by ocean fluxes during the early phase of the ENSO event. Our analyses shed further light on the understanding of the marine vs. terrestrial partitioning of tropical carbon fluxes during El Niño events, their relative contributions to the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate, and provide clues about the sensitivity of the carbon cycle to climate forcing on interannual time scales.

Ecosystem CO2 Exchange Across Semiarid Southwestern North America: A Synthesis of Multi-Year Flux Site Observations and its Comparison with Estimates from Terrestrial Biome Models and Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biederman, J. A.; Scott, R. L.; Goulden, M.; Litvak, M. E.; Kolb, T.; Yepez, E. A.; Garatuza, J.; Oechel, W. C.; Krofcheck, D. J.; Ponce-Campos, G. E.; Bowling, D. R.; Meyers, T. P.; Maurer, G.

2016-12-01

Global carbon cycle studies reveal that semiarid ecosystems dominate the increasing trend and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, the regional terrestrial biome models (TBM) and remote sensing products (RSP) used in large-scale analyses are poorly constrained by ecosystem flux measurements in semiarid regions, which are under-represented in global flux datasets. Here we present eddy covariance measurements from 25 diverse ecosystems in semiarid southwestern North America with ranges in annual precipitation of 100 - 1000 mm, annual temperatures of 2 - 25 °C, and records of 3 - 10 years each (150 site-years in total). We identified seven subregions with unique seasonal dynamics in climate and ecosystem-atmosphere exchange, including net and gross CO2 exchange (photosynthesis and respiration) and evapotranspiration (ET), and we evaluated how well measured dynamics were captured by satellite-based greenness observations of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). Annual flux integrals were calculated based on site-appropriate ecohydrologic years. Net ecosystem production (NEP) varied between -550 and + 420 g C m-2, highlighting the wide range of regional sink/source function. Annual photosynthesis and respiration were positively related to water availability but were suppressed in warmer years at a given site and at climatically warmer sites, in contrast to positive temperature responses at wetter sites. When precipitation anomalies were spatially coherent across sites (e.g. related to El Niño Southern Oscillation), we found large regional annual anomalies in net and gross CO2 uptake. TBM and RSP were less effective in capturing spatial gradients in mean ET and CO2 exchange across this semiarid region as compared to wetter regions. Measured interannual variability of ET and gross CO2 exchange was 3 - 5 times larger than estimates from TBM or RSP. These results suggest that semiarid regions play an even larger role in regulating interannual variability of the global carbon cycle than currently estimated by models and remote sensing. In on-going work, we expand this spatial-temporal analysis across a broader gradient of water availability using the Fluxnet 2015 dataset.

Expanding dryland ecosystem flux datasets enable novel quantification of water availability and carbon exchange in Southwestern North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biederman, J. A.; Scott, R. L.; Smith, W. K.; Litvak, M. E.; MacBean, N.

2017-12-01

Global-scale studies suggest that water-limited dryland ecosystems dominate the increasing trend in magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, the terrestrial biosphere models and remote sensing models used in large-scale analyses are poorly constrained by flux measurements in drylands, which are under-represented in global datasets. In this talk, I will address this gap with eddy covariance data from 30 ecosystems across the Southwest of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of 100 - 1000 mm, annual temperatures of 2 - 25 °C, and records of 3 - 10 years each (160 site-years). This extensive dryland dataset enables new approaches including 1) separation of temporal and spatial patterns to infer fast and slow ecosystem responses to change, and 2) partitioning of precipitation into hydrologic losses, evaporation, and ecosystem-available water. I will then compare direct flux measurements with models and remote sensing used to scale fluxes regionally. Combining eddy covariance and streamflow measurements, I will show how evapotranspiration (ET), which is the efflux of soil moisture remaining after hydrologic losses, is a better metric than precipitation of water available to drive ecosystem CO2 exchange. Furthermore, I will present a novel method to partition ET into evaporation and transpiration using the tight coupling of transpiration and photosynthesis. In contrast with typical carbon sink function in wetter, more-studied regions, dryland sites express an annual net carbon uptake varying from -350 to +330 gC m-2. Due to less respiration losses relative to photosynthesis gains during winter, declines in winter precipitation across the Southwest since 1999 are reducing annual net CO2 uptake. Interannual variability of net uptake is larger than for wetter regions, and half the sites pivot between sinks in wet years to sources in dry years. Biospheric and remote sensing models capture only 20-30 % of interannual variability in ET and CO2 fluxes, suggesting the impact of dryland regions on the variability of global CO2 may be up to 3 - 5 times larger than current estimates. Finally, I will highlight progress in ongoing work to develop improved remote sensing models of dryland CO2 uptake using novel indices including solar-induced fluorescence.

Terrestrial carbon balance in a drier world: the effects of water availability in southwestern North America.

PubMed

Biederman, Joel A; Scott, Russell L; Goulden, Michael L; Vargas, Rodrigo; Litvak, Marcy E; Kolb, Thomas E; Yepez, Enrico A; Oechel, Walter C; Blanken, Peter D; Bell, Tom W; Garatuza-Payan, Jaime; Maurer, Gregory E; Dore, Sabina; Burns, Sean P

2016-05-01

Global modeling efforts indicate semiarid regions dominate the increasing trend and interannual variation of net CO2 exchange with the atmosphere, mainly driven by water availability. Many semiarid regions are expected to undergo climatic drying, but the impacts on net CO2 exchange are poorly understood due to limited semiarid flux observations. Here we evaluated 121 site-years of annual eddy covariance measurements of net and gross CO2 exchange (photosynthesis and respiration), precipitation, and evapotranspiration (ET) in 21 semiarid North American ecosystems with an observed range of 100 - 1000 mm in annual precipitation and records of 4-9 years each. In addition to evaluating spatial relationships among CO2 and water fluxes across sites, we separately quantified site-level temporal relationships, representing sensitivity to interannual variation. Across the climatic and ecological gradient, photosynthesis showed a saturating spatial relationship to precipitation, whereas the photosynthesis-ET relationship was linear, suggesting ET was a better proxy for water available to drive CO2 exchanges after hydrologic losses. Both photosynthesis and respiration showed similar site-level sensitivity to interannual changes in ET among the 21 ecosystems. Furthermore, these temporal relationships were not different from the spatial relationships of long-term mean CO2 exchanges with climatic ET. Consequently, a hypothetical 100-mm change in ET, whether short term or long term, was predicted to alter net ecosystem production (NEP) by 64 gCm(-2) yr(-1). Most of the unexplained NEP variability was related to persistent, site-specific function, suggesting prioritization of research on slow-changing controls. Common temporal and spatial sensitivity to water availability increases our confidence that site-level responses to interannual weather can be extrapolated for prediction of CO2 exchanges over decadal and longer timescales relevant to societal response to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling the Martian seasonal CO2 cycle. I - Fitting the Viking Lander pressure curves. II - Interannual variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, Stephen E.; Paige, David A.

1992-01-01

The present diurnal and seasonal thermal model for Mars, in which surface CO2 frost condensation and sublimation are determined by the net effects of radiation, latent heat, and heat conduction in subsurface soil layers, in order to simulate seasonal exchanges of CO2 between the polar caps and atmosphere, successfully reproduces the measured pressured variations at the Viking Lander 1 site. In the second part of this work, the year-to-year differences between measured surface pressures at Viking sites as a function of season are used as upper limits on the potential magnitudes of interannual variations in the Martian atmosphere's mass. Simulations indicate that the dust layers deposited onto the condensing north seasonal polar cap during dust storms can darken seasonal frost deposits upon their springtime uncovering, while having little effect on seasonal pressure variations.

Ecosystem carbon balance in a drier future: land-atmosphere exchanges of CO2, water and energy across semiarid southwestern North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biederman, J. A.; Scott, R. L.; Goulden, M.; Litvak, M. E.; Kolb, T.; Yépez, E. A.; Oechel, W. C.; Meyers, T. P.; Papuga, S. A.; Ponce-Campos, G.; Krofcheck, D. J.; Maurer, G. E.; Dore, S.; Garatuza, J.; Bell, T. W.; Krishnan, P.

2015-12-01

The southwest US and northwest Mexico are predicted to become warmer and drier, increasing disturbance, shifting ecosystem composition, and altering global CO2 cycling. However, direct measurements of ecosystem land-atmosphere carbon and water exchange in this region have lagged behind those in wetter regions. In this presentation we present a synthesis of CO2, water, and energy exchanges made at 25 Southwest eddy covariance sites (3-10 years each, n = 174 years). This regional gradient includes desert shrublands, grasslands, savannas, and forests and spans ranges of 200 - 800 mm in mean annual precipitation and 2 - 24 ⁰C mean annual temperature, a climate space that has been underrepresented in flux databases and publications. We compare measured fluxes against state-of-the-art remote sensing and modeling products representing current best regional estimates. We find that 65% of annual net ecosystem production of CO2 (NEP) is explained by water availability. Meanwhile, most of the unexplained NEP variability is related to site-specific differences persisting over the observation years, suggesting slow-changing controls such as demography (plant type, age, structure) and legacies of disturbance. Disturbances that kill plants without removing biomass, such as drought, tend to decrease productivity and increase respiration, shifting sites from carbon sinks to sources. However, following disturbances that removed biomass, such as fire, both productivity and respiration decline, with minimal impacts on NEP. Remote sensing and modeling match mean CO2 uptake measurements across spatial gradients in climate and plant functional type. However, measured uptake reveals 200-400% greater interannual variability than model estimates. High variability and sensitivity to water help us understand why semiarid ecosystems dominate the interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon sink in global accounting studies.

Inter-Annual Variability of Area-Scaled Gaseous Carbon Emissions from Wetland Soils in the Liaohe Delta, China.

PubMed

Ye, Siyuan; Krauss, Ken W; Brix, Hans; Wei, Mengjie; Olsson, Linda; Yu, Xueyang; Ma, Xueying; Wang, Jin; Yuan, Hongming; Zhao, Guangming; Ding, Xigui; Moss, Rebecca F

2016-01-01

Global management of wetlands to suppress greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, facilitate carbon (C) sequestration, and reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations while simultaneously promoting agricultural gains is paramount. However, studies that relate variability in CO2 and CH4 emissions at large spatial scales are limited. We investigated three-year emissions of soil CO2 and CH4 from the primary wetland types of the Liaohe Delta, China, by focusing on a total wetland area of 3287 km2. One percent is Suaeda salsa, 24% is Phragmites australis, and 75% is rice. While S. salsa wetlands are under somewhat natural tidal influence, P. australis and rice are managed hydrologically for paper and food, respectively. Total C emissions from CO2 and CH4 from these wetland soils were 2.9 Tg C/year, ranging from 2.5 to 3.3 Tg C/year depending on the year assessed. Primary emissions were from CO2 (~98%). Photosynthetic uptake of CO2 would mitigate most of the soil CO2 emissions, but CH4 emissions would persist. Overall, CH4 fluxes were high when soil temperatures were >18°C and pore water salinity <18 PSU. CH4 emissions from rice habitat alone in the Liaohe Delta represent 0.2% of CH4 carbon emissions globally from rice. With such a large area and interannual sensitivity in soil GHG fluxes, management practices in the Delta and similar wetlands around the world have the potential not only to influence local C budgeting, but also to influence global biogeochemical cycling.

Inter-Annual Variability of Area-Scaled Gaseous Carbon Emissions from Wetland Soils in the Liaohe Delta, China

PubMed Central

Ye, Siyuan; Krauss, Ken W.; Brix, Hans; Wei, Mengjie; Olsson, Linda; Yu, Xueyang; Ma, Xueying; Wang, Jin; Yuan, Hongming; Zhao, Guangming; Ding, Xigui; Moss, Rebecca F.

2016-01-01

Global management of wetlands to suppress greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, facilitate carbon (C) sequestration, and reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations while simultaneously promoting agricultural gains is paramount. However, studies that relate variability in CO2 and CH4 emissions at large spatial scales are limited. We investigated three-year emissions of soil CO2 and CH4 from the primary wetland types of the Liaohe Delta, China, by focusing on a total wetland area of 3287 km2. One percent is Suaeda salsa, 24% is Phragmites australis, and 75% is rice. While S. salsa wetlands are under somewhat natural tidal influence, P. australis and rice are managed hydrologically for paper and food, respectively. Total C emissions from CO2 and CH4 from these wetland soils were 2.9 Tg C/year, ranging from 2.5 to 3.3 Tg C/year depending on the year assessed. Primary emissions were from CO2 (~98%). Photosynthetic uptake of CO2 would mitigate most of the soil CO2 emissions, but CH4 emissions would persist. Overall, CH4 fluxes were high when soil temperatures were >18°C and pore water salinity <18 PSU. CH4 emissions from rice habitat alone in the Liaohe Delta represent 0.2% of CH4 carbon emissions globally from rice. With such a large area and interannual sensitivity in soil GHG fluxes, management practices in the Delta and similar wetlands around the world have the potential not only to influence local C budgeting, but also to influence global biogeochemical cycling. PMID:27501148

Modelling spatial and temporal vegetation variability with the Climate Constrained Vegetation Index: evidence of CO2 fertilisation and of water stress in continental interiors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Los, S. O.

2015-06-01

A model was developed to simulate spatial, seasonal and interannual variations in vegetation in response to temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations; the model addresses shortcomings in current implementations. The model uses the minimum of 12 temperature and precipitation constraint functions to simulate NDVI. Functions vary based on the Köppen-Trewartha climate classification to take adaptations of vegetation to climate into account. The simulated NDVI, referred to as the climate constrained vegetation index (CCVI), captured the spatial variability (0.82 < r <0.87), seasonal variability (median r = 0.83) and interannual variability (median global r = 0.24) in NDVI. The CCVI simulated the effects of adverse climate on vegetation during the 1984 drought in the Sahel and during dust bowls of the 1930s and 1950s in the Great Plains in North America. A global CO2 fertilisation effect was found in NDVI data, similar in magnitude to that of earlier estimates (8 % for the 20th century). This effect increased linearly with simple ratio, a transformation of the NDVI. Three CCVI scenarios, based on climate simulations using the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5, showed a greater sensitivity of vegetation towards precipitation in Northern Hemisphere mid latitudes than is currently implemented in climate models. This higher sensitivity is of importance to assess the impact of climate variability on vegetation, in particular on agricultural productivity.

Tropical nighttime warming as a dominant driver of variability in the terrestrial carbon sink

Treesearch

William R. L. Anderegg; Ashley P. Ballantyne; W. Kolby Smith; Joseph Majkut; Sam Rabin; Claudie Beaulieu; Richard Birdsey; John P. Dunne; Richard A. Houghton; Ranga B. Myneni; Yude Pan; Jorge L. Sarmiento; Nathan Serota; Elena Shevliakova; Pieter Tans; Stephen W. Pacala

2015-01-01

The terrestrial biosphere is currently a strong carbon (C) sink but may switch to a source in the 21st century as climate-driven losses exceed CO2-driven C gains, thereby accelerating global warming. Although it has long been recognized that tropical climate plays a critical role in regulating interannual climate variability, the causal link...

Two-Dimensional Model Simulations of Interannual Variability in the Tropical Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fleming, Eric L.; Jackman, Charles H.; Considine, David B.; Rosenfeld, Joan; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Meteorological data from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) and constituent data from the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) are used to construct yearly zonal mean dynamical fields for the 1990s for use in the GSFC 2-D chemistry and transport model. This allows for interannual dynamical variability to be included in the model constituent simulations. In this study, we focus on the tropical stratosphere. We find that the phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signals in equatorial CH4, and profile and total column 03 data is resolved quite well using this empirically- based 2-D model transport framework. However. the QBO amplitudes in the model constituents are systematically underestimated relative to the observations at most levels. This deficiency is probably due in part to the limited vertical resolutions of the 2-D model and the UKMO and UARS input data sets. We find that using different heating rate calculations in the model affects the interannual and QBO amplitudes in the constituent fields, but has little impact on the phase. Sensitivity tests reveal that the QBO in transport dominates the ozone interannual variability in the lower stratosphere. with the effect of the temperature QBO being dominant in the tipper stratosphere via the strong temperature dependence of the ozone loss reaction rates. We also find that the QBO in odd nitrogen radicals, which is caused by the QBO modulated transport of NOy, plays a significant but not dominant role in determining the ozone QBO variability in the middle stratosphere. The model mean age of air is in good overall agreement with that determined from tropical lower,middle stratospheric OMS balloon observations of SF6 and CO2. The interannual variability of tile equatorial mean age in the model increases with altitude and maximizes near 40 km, with a range, of 4-5 years over the 1993-2000 time period.

Overview of o3 and CO Interannual Variabilities and Trends Based on the Mozaic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thouret, V.; Cammas, J.; Elguindi, N.; Zbinden, R.; Athier, G.; Nedelec, P.; Cousin, J.; Karcher, F.

2010-12-01

The MOZAIC program (http://mozaic.aero.obs-mip.fr) measures O3 and thermodynamical parameters since August 1994 along with CO since December 2001, on board 5 commercial aircraft operated by European airlines. Thus, most of the sampling data have been recorded at northern mid-latitudes, between 9 and 12 km altitude, in the upper troposphere - lower stratosphere (UTLS). To better assess the O3 distribution and its seasonal and regional behavior, measurements have been referenced to the tropopause altitude. The tropopause is defined as being a transition zone 30 hPa thick centered on the surface PV=2 pvu. Two other layers are defined on either side of the tropopause to encompass all the cruise levels of the MOZAIC flights, as fully described in Thouret et al., (2006). Then, we have access to the upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric O3 and CO distributions independently of any ozone threshold and regardless of the seasonal variations of the tropopause. We will present a climatology of O3 and CO in the UTLS for different regions of the northern hemisphere, from Western US to Japan, via North Atlantic and Europe. We will focus on the seasonal and regional differences to better highlight the O3 and CO behavior in this critical region. We also aim to further assess their interannual variability and “trends”. The first analysis presented in Thouret et al., (2006) showed an increase of O3 of about 1%/year between 1994 and 2003 in both the UT and the LS over a large North Atlantic area. This time period was actually characterized by the so-called (positive) anomaly 1998-1999. Later on, Koumoutsaris et al., (2008) have shown the role of the strong El-Nino event in 1997 in this positive ozone anomaly observed at hemispheric scale. In this present study, thanks to a longer time series now available (up to 2009), we go a step further. We will show that recent data actually reveal a levelling off of O3 since 2000 over the US and Europe while it is still increasing over Asia (less than 1%/year). On the other hand, CO distributions actually show a strong interannual variability partly linked to the intensity of boreal fires (Elguindi et al., 2010). We will present a detailed seasonal and regional analysis to better assess the leading processes. Elguindi et al., Current status of the ability of the GEMS/MACC models to reproduce the tropospheric CO vertical distribution as measured by MOZAIC… GMDD, 2010 Koumoutsaris S., Bey I., Generoso S., Thouret V., Influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on the interannual variability of tropospheric ozone in the northern midlatitudes, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D19301, 2008. Thouret V., J.-P. Cammas, B. Sauvage, G. Athier, R. Zbinden, P. Nédélec, P. Simon, and F. Karcher, Tropopause referenced ozone climatology and inter-annual variability (1994-2003) from the MOZAIC programme, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2006.

Comparison of CH4 Emission and CO2 Exchange Between 2013 and 2014 in a Subarctic Peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarizia, P. E.; Verbeke, B. A.; McCalley, C. K.; Werner, S. L.; Malhotra, A.; Burke, S. A.; Crill, P. M.; Varner, R. K.

2014-12-01

One of the major concerns with climate change is the potential feedback from the emission of greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), from high latitude thawing organic soils. With increasing temperatures in Arctic regions, thawing permafrost palsas transition to wetter sedge-dominated wetlands, which account for 20-39% of global atmospheric CH4 burden. This rapid change in habitat raises the following question: how do CO2 exchange rates and CH4 emissions change along a gradient of permafrost thaw and what is the interannual variability in these fluxes? To address this question, we measured CO2 exchange, CH4 flux, vegetative type and vascular green area (VGA) along a thaw gradient during July of 2013 and 2014 in Stordalen Mire, Sweden. Environmental variables showed that 2013 and 2014 were climatically different; higher photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and measurements of water table level and temperature showed that 2014 was warmer and drier than 2013. Warmer conditions led to higher rates of respiration and gross primary productivity (GPP), with the largest increases observed in the palsa sites, likely due to an increase in mean temperature. Methane fluxes showed a less consistent response to climate differences between years, fluxes were higher in 2014 in the mostly inundated Eriophorum angustifolium dominated site and lower in the drier Sphagnum and Eriophorum vaginatum dominated sites. Results of this study highlight the need for accounting for interannual variability when predicting greenhouse gas emissions during permafrost thaw.

Interannual Variability and Trends of CH4, CO and OH Using the Computationally-Efficient CH4-CO-OH (ECCOH) Module

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elshorbany, Yasin F.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Strode, Sarah A.; Wang, James S.; Kouatchou, Jules

2015-01-01

Methane (CH4) is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG). Its 100-year global warming potential (GWP) is 34 times larger than that for carbon dioxide. The 100-year integrated GWPof CH4 is sensitive to changes in hydroxyl radical (OH) levels.Oxidation of CH4 and carbon monoxide (CO) by OH is the main loss process, thus affecting the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and contributing to the global ozone background. Limitations of using archived, monthly OH fields for studies of methane's and COs evolution are that feedbacks of the CH4-CO-OH system on methane, CO and OH are not captured. In this study, we employ the computationally Efficient CH4-CO-OH (ECCOH) module (Elshorbany et al., 2015) to investigate the nonlinear feedbacks of the CH4-CO-OH system on the interannual variability and trends of the CH4, CO, OH system.

Satellite-derived SIF and CO2 Observations Show Coherent Responses to Interannual Climate Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butterfield, Z.; Hogikyan, A.; Kulawik, S. S.; Keppel-Aleks, G.

2017-12-01

Gross primary production (GPP) is the single largest carbon flux in the Earth system, but its sensitivity to changes in climate is subject to significant uncertainty. Satellite measurements of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) offer insight into spatial and temporal patterns in GPP at a global scale and, combined with other satellite-derived datasets, provide unprecedented opportunity to explore interactions between atmospheric CO2, GPP, and climate variability. To explore potential drivers of GPP in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), we compare monthly-averaged SIF data from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 (GOME-2) with observed anomalies in temperature (T; CRU-TS), liquid water equivalent (LWE) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR; CERES SYN1deg). Using observations from 2007 through 2015 for several NH regions, we calculate month-specific sensitivities of SIF to variability in T, LWE, and PAR. These sensitivities provide insight into the seasonal progression of how productivity is affected by climate variability and can be used to effectively model the observed SIF signal. In general, we find that high temperatures are beneficial to productivity in the spring, but detrimental in the summer. The influences of PAR and LWE are more heterogeneous between regions; for example, higher LWE in North American temperate forest leads to decreased springtime productivity, while exhibiting a contrasting effect in water-limited regions. Lastly, we assess the influence of variations in terrestrial productivity on atmospheric carbon using a new lower tropospheric CO2 product derived from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT). Together, these data shed light on the drivers of interannual variability in the annual cycle of NH atmospheric CO2, and may provide improved constraints on projections of long-term carbon cycle responses to climate change.

Atmospheric CO2 Variability Observed From ASCENDS Flight Campaigns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Bing; Browell, Edward; Campbell, Joel; Choi, Yonghoon; Dobler, Jeremy; Fan, Tai-Fang; Harrison, F. Wallace; Kooi, Susan; Liu, Zhaoyan; Meadows, Byron;

On the ability of a global atmospheric inversion to constrain variations of CO2 fluxes over Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, L.; Broquet, G.; Imbach, P.; Chevallier, F.; Poulter, B.; Bonal, D.; Burban, B.; Ramonet, M.; Gatti, L. V.; Wofsy, S. C.; Munger, J. W.; Dlugokencky, E.; Ciais, P.

2015-01-01

The exchanges of carbon, water, and energy between the atmosphere and the Amazon Basin have global implications for current and future climate. Here, the global atmospheric inversion system of the Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate service (MACC) was used to further study the seasonal and interannual variations of biogenic CO2 fluxes in Amazonia. The system assimilated surface measurements of atmospheric CO2 mole fractions made over more than 100 sites over the globe into an atmospheric transport model. This study added four surface stations located in tropical South America, a region poorly covered by CO2 observations. The estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) optimized by the inversion were compared to independent estimates of NEE upscaled from eddy-covariance flux measurements in Amazonia, and against reports on the seasonal and interannual variations of the land sink in South America from the scientific literature. We focused on the impact of the interannual variation of the strong droughts in 2005 and 2010 (due to severe and longer-than-usual dry seasons), and of the extreme rainfall conditions registered in 2009. The spatial variations of the seasonal and interannual variability of optimized NEE were also investigated. While the inversion supported the assumption of strong spatial heterogeneity of these variations, the results revealed critical limitations that prevent global inversion frameworks from capturing the data-driven seasonal patterns of fluxes across Amazonia. In particular, it highlighted issues due to the configuration of the observation network in South America and the lack of continuity of the measurements. However, some robust patterns from the inversion seemed consistent with the abnormal moisture conditions in 2009.

Inter-annual variability of area-scaled gaseous carbon emissions from wetland soils in the Liaohe Delta, China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ye, Siyuan; Krauss, Ken W.; Brix, Hans; Wei, Mengjie; Olsson, Linda; Yu, Xueyang; Ma, Yueying; Wang, Jin; Yuan, Hongming; Zhao, Guangming; Ding, Xigui; Moss, Rebecca

2016-01-01

Global management of wetlands to suppress greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, facilitate carbon (C) sequestration, and reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations while simultaneously promoting agricultural gains is paramount. However, studies that relate variability in CO2 and CH4 emissions at large spatial scales are limited. We investigated three-year emissions of soil CO2 and CH4 from the primary wetland types of the Liaohe Delta, China, by focusing on a total wetland area of 3287 km2. One percent is Suaeda salsa, 24% is Phragmites australis, and 75% is rice. While S. salsa wetlands are under somewhat natural tidal influence, P. australis and rice are managed hydrologically for paper and food, respectively. Total C emissions from CO2 and CH4 from these wetland soils were 2.9 Tg C/year, ranging from 2.5 to 3.3 Tg C/year depending on the year assessed. Primary emissions were from CO2 (~98%). Photosynthetic uptake of CO2 would mitigate most of the soil CO2 emissions, but CH4 emissions would persist. Overall, CH4 fluxes were high when soil temperatures were >18°C and pore water salinity <18 PSU. CH4 emissions from rice habitat alone in the Liaohe Delta represent 0.2% of CH4 carbon emissions globally from rice. With such a large area and interannual sensitivity in soil GHG fluxes, management practices in the Delta and similar wetlands around the world have the potential not only to influence local C budgeting, but also to influence global biogeochemical cycling.

Regional and hemispheric influences on temporal variability in baseline carbon monoxide and ozone over the Northeast US

EPA Science Inventory

Interannual variability in baseline carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3), defined as mixing ratios under minimal influence of recent and local emissions, was studied for seven rural sites in the Northeast US over 2001–2010. Annual baseline CO exhibited statistically signific...

Temperature and precipitation drive temporal variability in aquatic carbon and GHG concentrations and fluxes in a peatland catchment.

PubMed

Dinsmore, K J; Billett, M F; Dyson, K E

2013-07-01

The aquatic pathway is increasingly being recognized as an important component of catchment carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets, particularly in peatland systems due to their large carbon store and strong hydrological connectivity. In this study, we present a complete 5-year data set of all aquatic carbon and GHG species from an ombrotrophic Scottish peatland. Measured species include particulate and dissolved forms of organic carbon (POC, DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), CO2 , CH4 and N2 O. We show that short-term variability in concentrations exists across all species and this is strongly linked to discharge. Seasonal cyclicity was only evident in DOC, CO2 and CH4 concentration; however, temperature correlated with monthly means in all species except DIC. Although the temperature correlation with monthly DOC and POC concentrations appeared to be related to biological productivity in the terrestrial system, we suggest the temperature correlation with CO2 and CH4 was primarily due to in-stream temperature-dependent solubility. Interannual variability in total aquatic carbon concentration was strongly correlated with catchment gross primary productivity (GPP) indicating a strong potential terrestrial aquatic linkage. DOC represented the largest aquatic carbon flux term (19.3 ± 4.59 g C m(-2)  yr(-1) ), followed by CO2 evasion (10.0 g C m(-2)  yr(-1) ). Despite an estimated contribution to the total aquatic carbon flux of between 8 and 48%, evasion estimates had the greatest uncertainty. Interannual variability in total aquatic carbon export was low in comparison with variability in terrestrial biosphere-atmosphere exchange, and could be explained primarily by temperature and precipitation. Our results therefore suggest that climatic change is likely to have a significant impact on annual carbon losses through the aquatic pathway, and as such, aquatic exports are fundamental to the understanding of whole catchment responses to climate change. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Southern Hemisphere Carbon Monoxide Inferannual Variability Observed by Terra/Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, D. P.; Petron, G.; Novelli, P. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Gille, J. C.; Drummond, J. R.

2010-01-01

Biomass burning is an annual occurrence in the tropical southern hemisphere (SH) and represents a major source of regional pollution. Vegetation fires emit carbon monoxide (CO), which due to its medium lifetime is an excellent tracer of tropospheric transport. CO is also one of the few tropospheric trace gases currently observed from satellite and this provides long-term global measurements. In this paper, we use the 5 year CO data record from the Measurement Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument to examine the inter-annual variability of the SH CO loading and show how this relates to climate conditions which determine the intensity of fire sources. The MOPITT observations show an annual austral springtime peak in the SH zonal CO loading each year with dry-season biomass burning emissions in S. America, southern Africa, the Maritime Continent, and northwestern Australia. Although fires in southern Africa and S. America typically produce the greatest amount of CO, the most significant inter-annual variation is due to varying fire activity and emissions from the Maritime Continent and northern Australia. We find that this variation in turn correlates well with the El Nino Southern Oscillation precipitation index. Between 2000 and 2005, emissions were greatest in late 2002 and an inverse modeling of the MOPITT data using the MOZART chemical transport model estimates the southeast Asia regional fire source for the year August 2002 to September 2003 to be 52 Tg CO. Comparison of the MOPITT retrievals and NOAA surface network measurements indicate that the latter do not fully capture the inter-annual variability or the seasonal range of the CO zonal average concentration due to biases associated with atmospheric and geographic sampling.

Precipitation and carbon-water coupling jointly control the interannual variability of global land gross primary production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yao; Xiao, Xiangming; Guanter, Luis; Zhou, Sha; Ciais, Philippe; Joiner, Joanna; Sitch, Stephen; Wu, Xiaocui; Nabel, Julia; Dong, Jinwei; Kato, Etsushi; Jain, Atul K.; Wiltshire, Andy; Stocker, Benjamin D.

2016-12-01

Carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is increasing along with the rising of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Embedded in this trend, recent studies suggested that the interannual variability (IAV) of global carbon fluxes may be dominated by semi-arid ecosystems, but the underlying mechanisms of this high variability in these specific regions are not well known. Here we derive an ensemble of gross primary production (GPP) estimates using the average of three data-driven models and eleven process-based models. These models are weighted by their spatial representativeness of the satellite-based solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF). We then use this weighted GPP ensemble to investigate the GPP variability for different aridity regimes. We show that semi-arid regions contribute to 57% of the detrended IAV of global GPP. Moreover, in regions with higher GPP variability, GPP fluctuations are mostly controlled by precipitation and strongly coupled with evapotranspiration (ET). This higher GPP IAV in semi-arid regions is co-limited by supply (precipitation)-induced ET variability and GPP-ET coupling strength. Our results demonstrate the importance of semi-arid regions to the global terrestrial carbon cycle and posit that there will be larger GPP and ET variations in the future with changes in precipitation patterns and dryland expansion.

Precipitation and Carbon-Water Coupling Jointly Control the Interannual Variability of Global Land Gross Primary Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Yao; Xiao, Xiangming; Guanter, Luis; Zhou, Sha; Ciais, Philippe; Joiner, Joanna; Sitch, Stephen; Wu, Xiaocui; Nabel, Julian; Dong, Jinwei;

Assessment of Climatic and Anthropogenic Impacts on the Global Carbon Cycle Constrained by Atmospheric Measurements and Remote Sensing Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keeling, Charles D.; Piper, Stephen C.

2001-01-01

This grant aimed to establish how the global carbon cycle has responded and will respond to global change. We proposed to use models to predict measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentration and C-13/C-12 isotopic ratio, and thereby to establish how sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 have been influenced by climatic change and human activities. As the work progressed we developed strategies involving finding regional sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 by an inverse approach, and studying their seasonal and interannual variability.

Stand age and species richness dampen interannual variation of ecosystem-level photosynthetic capacity.

PubMed

Musavi, Talie; Migliavacca, Mirco; Reichstein, Markus; Kattge, Jens; Wirth, Christian; Black, T Andrew; Janssens, Ivan; Knohl, Alexander; Loustau, Denis; Roupsard, Olivier; Varlagin, Andrej; Rambal, Serge; Cescatti, Alessandro; Gianelle, Damiano; Kondo, Hiroaki; Tamrakar, Rijan; Mahecha, Miguel D

2017-01-23

The total uptake of carbon dioxide by ecosystems via photosynthesis (gross primary productivity, GPP) is the largest flux in the global carbon cycle. A key ecosystem functional property determining GPP is the photosynthetic capacity at light saturation (GPP sat ), and its interannual variability (IAV) is propagated to the net land-atmosphere exchange of CO 2 . Given the importance of understanding the IAV in CO 2 fluxes for improving the predictability of the global carbon cycle, we have tested a range of alternative hypotheses to identify potential drivers of the magnitude of IAV in GPP sat in forest ecosystems. Our results show that while the IAV in GPP sat within sites is closely related to air temperature and soil water availability fluctuations, the magnitude of IAV in GPP sat is related to stand age and biodiversity (R 2 = 0.55, P < 0.0001). We find that the IAV of GPP sat is greatly reduced in older and more diverse forests, and is higher in younger forests with few dominant species. Older and more diverse forests seem to dampen the effect of climate variability on the carbon cycle irrespective of forest type. Preserving old forests and their diversity would therefore be beneficial in reducing the effect of climate variability on Earth's forest ecosystems.

Detecting a Terrestrial Biosphere Sink for Carbon Dioxide: Interannual Ecosystem Modeling for the Mid-1980s

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, Christopher S.; Klooster, Steven A.; Brooks, Vanessa; Gore, Warren J. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

There is considerable uncertainty as to whether interannual variability in climate and terrestrial ecosystem production is sufficient to explain observed variation in atmospheric carbon content over the past 20-30 years. In this paper, we investigated the response of net CO2 exchange in terrestrial ecosystems to interannual climate variability (1983 to 1988) using global satellite observations as drivers for the NASA-CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) simulation model. This computer model of net ecosystem production (NEP) is calibrated for interannual simulations driven by monthly satellite vegetation index data (NDVI) from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) at 1 degree spatial resolution. Major results from NASA-CASA simulations suggest that from 1985 to 1988, the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 and 60 degrees N) was the principal region driving progressive annual increases in global net primary production (NPP; i.e., the terrestrial biosphere sink for carbon). The average annual increase in NPP over this predominantly northern forest zone was on the order of +0.4 Pg (10 (exp 15) g) C per year. This increase resulted mainly from notable expansion of the growing season for plant carbon fixation toward the zonal latitude extremes, a pattern uniquely demonstrated in our regional visualization results. A net biosphere source flux of CO2 in 1983-1984, coinciding with an El Nino event, was followed by a major recovery of global NEP in 1985 which lasted through 1987 as a net carbon sink of between 0.4 and 2.6 Avg C per year. Analysis of model controls on NPP and soil heterotrophic CO2 fluxes (Rh) suggests that regional warming in northern forests can enhance ecosystem production significantly. In seasonally dry tropical zones, periodic drought and temperature drying effects may carry over with at least a two-year lag time to adversely impact ecosystem production. These yearly patterns in our model-predicted NEP are consistent in magnitude with the estimated exchange of CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere with the atmosphere, as determined by previous isotopic (delta (sup 13 C) convolution analysis. Ecosystem simulation results can help further target locations where net carbon sink fluxes have occurred in the past or may be verified in subsequent field studies.

Study of Tropospheric Ozone and UV Reflectivity Using TOMS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yung, Yuk L.

2002-01-01

Perhaps the single most important result from the study of Chuang and Yung is that the interannual variability of the Earth's albedo (especially in Spring) on land is dominated by snow/ice, and not by clouds. This interannual variability could be the major driver of changes in the atmosphere and the biosphere. It is plausible that the interannual variability of snow/ice, through interactions with the atmosphere and biosphere, is responsible for the interannual variability of atmospheric CO2. By carefully studying the albedo variations off the Peru coast, we found evidence for indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Based on a detailed analysis of the cloud data obtained by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (SCCP) in the years 1983-1991, we show that besides the reported 3 % variation in global cloudiness, the global mean cloud optical thickness (MCOT) also has significant variation which is out of phase with that of the global cloudiness. The combined effect of the two opposing variations may be a null effect on the cloud reflectivity. These results are consistent with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) reflectively measurements. The MCOT variation is further shown to be correlated with both the solar cycle and the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) cycle. Our present analysis cannot distinguish which of the above two provides better correlation, although independent data from the High resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) from 1990 to 1996 favor the solar cycle. Future data are needed to identify the true cause of these changes.

Empirically constrained estimates of Alaskan regional Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2, 2012-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Commane, R.; Lindaas, J.; Benmergui, J. S.; Luus, K. A.; Chang, R. Y. W.; Miller, S. M.; Henderson, J.; Karion, A.; Miller, J. B.; Sweeney, C.; Miller, C. E.; Lin, J. C.; Oechel, W. C.; Zona, D.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Iwata, H.; Ueyama, M.; Harazono, Y.; Veraverbeke, S.; Randerson, J. T.; Daube, B. C.; Pittman, J. V.; Wofsy, S. C.

2015-12-01

We present data-driven estimates of the regional net ecosystem exchange of CO2 across Alaska for three years (2012-2014) derived from CARVE (Carbon in the Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment) aircraft measurements. Integrating optimized estimates of annual NEE, we find that the Alaskan region was a small sink of CO2 during 2012 and 2014, but a significant source of CO2 in 2013, even before including emissions from the large forest fire season during 2013. We investigate the drivers of this interannual variability, and the larger spring and fall emissions of CO2 in 2013. To determine the optimized fluxes, we couple the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (PWRF) model with the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model, to produce footprints of surface influence that we convolve with a remote-sensing driven model of NEE across Alaska, the Polar Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (Polar-VPRM). For each month we calculate a spatially explicit additive flux (ΔF) by minimizing the difference between the measured profiles of the aircraft CO2 data and the modeled profiles, using a framework that combines a uniform correction at regional scales and a Bayesian inversion of residuals at smaller scales. A rigorous estimate of total uncertainty (including atmospheric transport, measurement error, etc.) was made with a combination of maximum likelihood estimation and Monte Carlo error propagation. Our optimized fluxes are consistent with other measurements on multiple spatial scales, including CO2 mixing ratios from the CARVE Tower near Fairbanks and eddy covariance flux towers in both boreal and tundra ecosystems across Alaska. For times outside the aircraft observations (Dec-April) we use the un-optimized polar-VPRM, which has shown good agreement with both tall towers and eddy flux data outside the growing season. This approach allows us to robustly estimate the annual CO2 budget for Alaska and investigate the drivers of both the seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of CO2 for the region.

The Inter-Annual Variability Analysis of Carbon Exchange in Low Artic Fen Uncovers The Climate Sensitivity And The Uncertainties Around Net Ecosystem Exchange Partitioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanco, E. L.; Lund, M.; Williams, M. D.; Christensen, T. R.; Tamstorf, M. P.

2015-12-01

An improvement in our process-based understanding of CO2 exchanges in the Arctic, and their climate sensitivity, is critical for examining the role of tundra ecosystems in changing climates. Arctic organic carbon storage has seen increased attention in recent years due to large potential for carbon releases following thaw. Our knowledge about the exact scale and sensitivity for a phase-change of these C stocks are, however, limited. Minor variations in Gross Primary Production (GPP) and Ecosystem Respiration (Reco) driven by changes in the climate can lead to either C sink or C source states, which likely will impact the overall C cycle of the ecosystem. Eddy covariance data is usually used to partition Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) into GPP and Reco achieved by flux separation algorithms. However, different partitioning approaches lead to different estimates. as well as undefined uncertainties. The main objectives of this study are to use model-data fusion approaches to (1) determine the inter-annual variability in C source/sink strength for an Arctic fen, and attribute such variations to GPP vs Reco, (2) investigate the climate sensitivity of these processes and (3) explore the uncertainties in NEE partitioning. The intention is to elaborate on the information gathered in an existing catchment area under an extensive cross-disciplinary ecological monitoring program in low Arctic West Greenland, established under the auspices of the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring (GEM) program. The use of such a thorough long-term (7 years) dataset applied to the exploration in inter-annual variability of carbon exchange, related driving factors and NEE partition uncertainties provides a novel input into our understanding about land-atmosphere CO2 exchange.

Effect of interannual climate variability on carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tian, H.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; McGuire, David A.; Helfrich, J. V. K.; Moore, B.; Vorosmarty, C.J.

1998-01-01

The Amazon Basin contains almost one-half of the world's undisturbed tropical evergreen forest as well as large areas of tropical savanna. The forests account for about 10 per cent of the world's terrestrial primary productivity and for a similar fraction of the carbon stored in land ecosystems, and short-term field measurements suggest that these ecosystems are globally important carbon sinks. But tropical land ecosystems have experienced substantial interannual climate variability owing to frequent El Nino episodes in recent decades. Of particular importance to climate change policy is how such climate variations, coupled with increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, affect terrestrial carbon storage. Previous model analyses have demonstrated the importance of temperature in controlling carbon storage. Here we use a transient process-based biogeochemical model of terrestrial ecosystems to investigate interannual variations of carbon storage in undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems in response to climate variability and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration during the period 1980 to 1994. In El Nino years, which bring hot, dry weather to much of the Amazon region, the ecosystems act as a source of carbon to the atmosphere (up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon in 1987 and 1992). In other years, these ecosystems act as a carbon sink (up to 0.7 Pg C in 1981 and 1993). These fluxes are large; they compare to a 0.3 Pg C per year source to the atmosphere associated with deforestation in the Amazon Basin in the early 1990s. Soil moisture, which is affected by both precipitation and temperature, and which affects both plant and soil processes, appears to be an important control on carbon storage.

Interannual variability of terrestrial NEP and its attributions to carbon uptake amplitude and period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, S.

2015-12-01

Earth system exhibits strong interannual variability (IAV) in the global carbon cycle as reflected in the year-to-year anomalies of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Although various analyses suggested that land ecosystems contribute mostly to the IAV of atmospheric CO2 concentration, processes leading to the IAV in the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle are far from clear and hinder our effort in predicting the IAV of global C cycle. Previous studies on IAV of global C cycle have focused on the regulation of climatic variables in tropical or semiarid areas, but generated inconsistent conclusions. Using long-term eddy-flux measurements of net ecosystem production (NEP), atmospheric CO2 inversion NEP, and the MODIS-derived gross primary production (GPP), we demonstrate that seasonal carbon uptake amplitude (CUA) and period (CUP) are two key processes that control the IAV in the terrestrial C cycle. The two processes together explain 78% of the variations in the IAV in eddy covariance NEP, 70% in global atmospheric inversed NEP, and 53% in the IAV of GPP. Moreover, the three lines of evidence consistently show that variability in CUA is much more important than that of CUP in determining the variation of NEP at most eddy-flux sites, and most grids of global NEP and GPP. Our results suggest that the maximum carbon uptake potential in the peak-growing season is a determinant process of global C cycle internnual variability and carbon uptake period may play less important role than previous expectations. This study uncovers the most parsimonious, proximate processes underlying the IAV in global C cycle of the Earth system. Future research is needed to identify how climate factors affect the IAV in terrestrial C cycle through their influence on CUA and CUP.

Constraining land carbon cycle process understanding with observations of atmospheric CO2 variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collatz, G. J.; Kawa, S. R.; Liu, Y.; Zeng, F.; Ivanoff, A.

2013-12-01

We evaluate our understanding of the land biospheric carbon cycle by benchmarking a model and its variants to atmospheric CO2 observations and to an atmospheric CO2 inversion. Though the seasonal cycle in CO2 observations is well simulated by the model (RMSE/standard deviation of observations <0.5 at most sites north of 15N and <1 for Southern Hemisphere sites) different model setups suggest that the CO2 seasonal cycle provides some constraint on gross photosynthesis, respiration, and fire fluxes revealed in the amplitude and phase at northern latitude sites. CarbonTracker inversions (CT) and model show similar phasing of the seasonal fluxes but agreement in the amplitude varies by region. We also evaluate interannual variability (IAV) in the measured atmospheric CO2 which, in contrast to the seasonal cycle, is not well represented by the model. We estimate the contributions of biospheric and fire fluxes, and atmospheric transport variability to explaining observed variability in measured CO2. Comparisons with CT show that modeled IAV has some correspondence to the inversion results >40N though fluxes match poorly at regional to continental scales. Regional and global fire emissions are strongly correlated with variability observed at northern flask sample sites and in the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate though in the latter case fire emissions anomalies are not large enough to account fully for the observed variability. We discuss remaining unexplained variability in CO2 observations in terms of the representation of fluxes by the model. This work also demonstrates the limitations of the current network of CO2 observations and the potential of new denser surface measurements and space based column measurements for constraining carbon cycle processes in models.

Linkages Between Terrestrial Carbon Uptake and Interannual Climate Variability over the Texas-northern Mexico High Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parazoo, N.; Barnes, E. A.; Worden, J.; Harper, A. B.; Bowman, K. W.; Frankenberg, C.

2014-12-01

The Texas-northern Mexico high plains experienced record drought conditions in 2011 during strong negative phases of ENSO and the NAO. Given predictions of increased frequency and severity of drought under projected climate change [e.g., Reichstein et al., 2013] and recent findings of CO2 growth rate sensitivity to interannual variability of carbon uptake in semi-arid ecosystems [Poulter et al., 2014], we investigate the response of carbon uptake in the Texas high plains to interannual climate variability with the goal of improved mechanistic understanding of climate-carbon cycle links. Specifically, we examine (1) observed tendencies in regional scale carbon uptake and soil moisture from 2010 to 2011 using satellite observations of gross primary production (GPP) (from plant fluorescence) from GOSAT and soil moisture from SMOS, and (2) the interannual relationship between GPP and ENSO & NAO variability using terrestrial biosphere simulations from 1950-2012. Observations reveal widespread decline of GPP in 2011 (0.42 +/- 0.04 Pg C yr-1) correlated with negative soil moisture tendencies (r = 0.85 +/- 0.21) which leads to corresponding declines in net carbon uptake and transpiration (according to model simulations). Further examination of model results over the period 1950-2012 indicates that negative GPP anomalies are linked systematically to winter and spring precipitation deficits associated with overlapping negative phases of winter NAO and ENSO, with increasing magnitude of negative anomalies in strong La Niña years. Furthermore, the strongest decline of GPP, carbon uptake, and transpiration on record occurred during the 2011 drought and were associated with extreme negative phases of ENSO and NAO, with 2011 being the only year since 1950 that both indices exceeded 1 σ standard deviation.

Potential of new machine learning methods for understanding long-term interannual variability of carbon and energy fluxes and states from site to global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichstein, M.; Jung, M.; Bodesheim, P.; Mahecha, M. D.; Gans, F.; Rodner, E.; Camps-Valls, G.; Papale, D.; Tramontana, G.; Denzler, J.; Baldocchi, D. D.

2016-12-01

Machine learning tools have been very successful in describing and predicting instantaneous climatic influences on the spatial and seasonal variability of biosphere-atmosphere exchange, while interannual variability is harder to model (e.g. Jung et al. 2011, JGR Biogeosciences). Here we hypothesize that innterannual variability is harder to describe for two reasons. 1) The signal-to-noise ratio in both, predictors (e.g. remote sensing) and target variables (e.g. net ecosystem exchange) is relatively weak, 2) The employed machine learning methods do not sufficiently account for dynamic lag and carry-over effects. In this presentation we can largely confirm both hypotheses: 1) We show that based on FLUXNET data and an ensemble of machine learning methods we can arrive at estimates of global NEE that correlate well with the residual land sink overall and CO2 flux inversions over latitudinal bands. Furthermore these results highlight the importance of variations in water availability for variations in carbon fluxes locally, while globally, as a scale-emergent property, tropical temperatures correlate well with the atmospheric CO2 growth rate, because of spatial anticorrelation and compensation of water availability. 2) We evidence with synthetic and real data that machine learning methods with embed dynamic memory effects of the system such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are able to better capture lag and carry-over effect which are caused by dynamic carbon pools in vegetation and soils. For these methods, long-term replicate observations are an essential asset.

Detection of carbon monoxide trends in the presence of interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strode, Sarah A.; Pawson, Steven

2013-11-01

in fossil fuel emissions are a major driver of changes in atmospheric CO, but detection of trends in CO from anthropogenic sources is complicated by the presence of large interannual variability (IAV) in biomass burning. We use a multiyear model simulation of CO with year-specific biomass burning to predict the number of years needed to detect the impact of changes in Asian anthropogenic emissions on downwind regions. Our study includes two cases for changing anthropogenic emissions: a stepwise change of 15% and a linear trend of 3% yr-1. We first examine how well the model reproduces the observed IAV of CO over the North Pacific, since this variability impacts the time needed to detect significant anthropogenic trends. The modeled IAV over the North Pacific correlates well with that seen from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument but underestimates the magnitude of the variability. The model predicts that a 3% yr-1 trend in Asian anthropogenic emissions would lead to a statistically significant trend in CO surface concentration in the western United States within 12 years, and accounting for Siberian boreal biomass-burning emissions greatly reduces the number of years needed for trend detection. Combining the modeled trend with the observed MOPITT variability at 500 hPa, we estimate that the 3% yr-1 trend could be detectable in satellite observations over Asia in approximately a decade. Our predicted timescales for trend detection highlight the importance of long-term measurements of CO from satellites.

Seasonal and interannual variabilities of coccolithophore blooms in the Bay of Biscay and the Celtic Sea observed from a 18-year time-series of non-algal Suspended Particulate Matter images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrot, Laurie; Gohin, Francis; Ruiz-Pino, Diana; Lampert, Luis

2016-04-01

Coccolithophores belong to the nano-phytoplankton size-class and produce CaCO3 scales called coccoliths which form the «shell» of the algae cell. Coccoliths are in the size range of a few μm and can also be detached from the cell in the water. This phytoplankton group has an ubiquitous distribution in all oceans but blooms only in some oceanic regions, like the North East Atlantic ocean and the South Western Atlantic (Patagonian Sea). At a global scale coccolithopore blooms are studied in regard of CaCO3 production and three potential feedback on climate change: albedo modification by the way of dimethylsulfide (DMS) production and atmospheric CO2 source by calcification and a CO2 pump by photosynthesis. As the oceans are more and more acidified by anthropogenic CO2 emissions, coccolithophores generally are expected to be negatively affected. However, recent studies have shown an increase in coccolithophore occurrence in the North Atlantic. A poleward expansion of the coccolithophore Emiliana Huxleyi has also been pointed out. By using a simplified fuzzy method applied to a 18-year time series of SeaWiFS (1998-2002) and MODIS (2003-2015) spectral reflectance, we assessed the seasonal and inter-annual variability of coccolithophore blooms in the vicinity of the shelf break in the Bay of Biscay and the Celtic Sea After identification of the coccolith pixels by applying the fuzzy method, the abundance of coccoliths is assessed from a database of non-algal Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM). Although a regular pattern in the phenology of the blooms is observed, starting south in April in Biscay and moving northwards until July in Ireland, there is a high seasonal and interannual variability in the extent of the blooms. Year 2014 shows very low concentrations of detached coccoliths (twice less than average) from space and anomalies point out the maximum level in 2001. Non-algal SPM, derived from a procedure defined for the continental shelf, appears to be well related to the calcite concentration provided by NASA, and correlates better with coccolith than coccosphere in-situ data.

Environmental variation is directly responsible for short- but not long-term variation in forest-atmosphere carbon exchange

Treesearch

Andrew D. Richardson; David Y. Hollinger; John D. Aber; Scott V. Ollinger; Bobby H. Braswell

2007-01-01

Tower-based eddy covariance measurements of forest-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange from many sites around the world indicate that there is considerable year-to-year variation in net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Here, we use a statistical modeling approach to partition the interannual variability in NEE (and its component fluxes, ecosystem...

Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: analyses of CO2, climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, A.D.; Sitch, S.; Clein, Joy S.; Dargaville, R.; Esser, G.; Foley, J.; Heimann, Martin; Joos, F.; Kaplan, J.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Meier, R.A.; Melillo, J.M.; Moore, B.; Prentice, I.C.; Ramankutty, N.; Reichenau, T.; Schloss, A.; Tian, H.; Williams, L.J.; Wittenberg, U.

2001-01-01

The concurrent effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variability, and cropland establishment and abandonment on terrestrial carbon storage between 1920 and 1992 were assessed using a standard simulation protocol with four process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Over the long-term(1920–1992), the simulations yielded a time history of terrestrial uptake that is consistent (within the uncertainty) with a long-term analysis based on ice core and atmospheric CO2 data. Up to 1958, three of four analyses indicated a net release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere caused by cropland establishment. After 1958, all analyses indicate a net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems, primarily because of the physiological effects of rapidly rising atmospheric CO2. During the 1980s the simulations indicate that terrestrial ecosystems stored between 0.3 and 1.5 Pg C yr−1, which is within the uncertainty of analysis based on CO2 and O2 budgets. Three of the four models indicated (in accordance with O2 evidence) that the tropics were approximately neutral while a net sink existed in ecosystems north of the tropics. Although all of the models agree that the long-term effect of climate on carbon storage has been small relative to the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 and land use, the models disagree as to whether climate variability and change in the twentieth century has promoted carbon storage or release. Simulated interannual variability from 1958 generally reproduced the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-scale variability in the atmospheric CO2 increase, but there were substantial differences in the magnitude of interannual variability simulated by the models. The analysis of the ability of the models to simulate the changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 suggested that the observed trend may be a consequence of CO2 effects, climate variability, land use changes, or a combination of these effects. The next steps for improving the process-based simulation of historical terrestrial carbon include (1) the transfer of insight gained from stand-level process studies to improve the sensitivity of simulated carbon storage responses to changes in CO2 and climate, (2) improvements in the data sets used to drive the models so that they incorporate the timing, extent, and types of major disturbances, (3) the enhancement of the models so that they consider major crop types and management schemes, (4) development of data sets that identify the spatial extent of major crop types and management schemes through time, and (5) the consideration of the effects of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. The evaluation of the performance of the models in the context of a more complete consideration of the factors influencing historical terrestrial carbon dynamics is important for reducing uncertainties in representing the role of terrestrial ecosystems in future projections of the Earth system.

Influence of soil C stocks and interannual climatic variability on the CO2 and CH4 exchange of maize cultivated on mineral and organic soils in NE Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, Madlen; Hagemann, Ulrike; Hoffmann, Mathias; Giebels, Michael; Albiac-Borraz, Elisa; Sommer, Michael; Augustin, Jürgen

2014-05-01

Due to its glacially influenced genesis and land use history, the soils of the Great Plain Region of NE-Germany show large differences in groundwater levels and soil carbon (C) stocks over short distances. Although generally featuring a rather dry climate, trace gas exchange at individual sites may be influenced by i) interannual climatic variability, particularly with respect to precipitation; as well as by ii) variability of soil C stocks. However, it is still unclear how these factors affect fluxes of CO2 and CH4, and if there is any positive or negative feedback on the C source or sink function of different soil types. We present measured and modeled CO2 and CH4 fluxes of minerally fertilized grain maize for three sites located near Paulinenaue, within the so-called Rhin-Havelluch, a shallow and drained paludification mire complex in NE Germany. The sites are characterized by a distinct gradient of 0-1 m soil organic C stocks: i) Arenosol (AR: mineral soil/distant groundwater; 8 000 g C m-2), ii) Gleysol (GL: organic soil/groundwater-dependent; 35 000 g C m-2), and iii) Histosol (HS: organic soil/near groundwater; 45 000 g C m-2). CO2 flux measurements of ecosystem respiration (Reco), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP; calculated as difference between NEE and Reco) were conducted every four weeks using a flow-through non-steady-state closed chamber system. Measurement gaps of Reco and NEE were filled by using temperature or radiation-based models, respectively. CH4 fluxes were measured bi-weekly using a static closed chamber system with interval sampling, with gap filling via linear interpolation. Cumulated fluxes of CO2-C (Reco, GPP, NEE) and CH4-C were calculated for a period of four consecutive years (2007-2010). The intensity of CO2-C fluxes increased with growing soil organic C stocks (AR < GL < HS). Mean annual values of the years 2008-2010 for Reco ranged between 1 500 g C m-2 and 2 000 g C m-2; annual GPP fluxes ranged from -1 400 g C m-2 to -2 300 g C m-2. NEE balances varied from C source on the mineral AR site (65 g C m-2) to C sink for organic sites (nearly -350 g C m-2). Annual CH4 exchange rates were generally very low < 0.3 g C m-2 and negligible compared to annual CO2 exchange. However, the exceptionally wet summer of 2007 (May to July) resulted in drastically increased CH4 emissions from the groundwater-influenced organic soils, particularly at the HS site where CH4 emissions were nearly 100 times higher emissions than in the following years (28 g C m-2). The excess moisture levels in 2007 also appeared to influence ecosystem CO2 exchange - likely through effects on maize growth - resulting in strongly increased Reco and GPP rates at the mineral AR site and drastically decreased Reco and GPP rates at the flooded HS site. The intensity of gaseous C fluxes seems to strongly depend on interactions between soil C stocks and interannual climatic variability. More detailed conclusions about the nature of these interactions require continuation of these measurements, i.e. long-term investigation.

Interannual Variation of Surface Circulation in the Japan/East Sea due to External Forcings and Intrinsic Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Byoung-Ju; Cho, Seong Hun; Jung, Hee Seok; Lee, Sang-Ho; Byun, Do-Seong; Kwon, Kyungman

2018-03-01

The interannual variation of surface ocean currents can be as large as seasonal variation in the Japan/East Sea (JES). To identify the major factors that cause such interannual variability of surface ocean circulation in the JES, surface circulation was simulated from 1998 to 2009 using a three-dimensional model. Contributions of atmospheric forcing (ATM), open boundary data (OBC), and intrinsic variability (ITV) of the surface flow in the JES on the interannual variability of surface ocean circulation were separately examined using numerical simulations. Variability in surface circulation was quantified in terms of variance in sea surface height, 100-m depth water temperature, and surface currents. ITV was found to be the dominant factor that induced interannual variabilities of surface circulation, the main path of the East Korea Warm Current (EKWC), and surface kinetic energy on a time scale of 2-4 years. OBC and ATM were secondary factors contributing to the interannual variation of surface circulation. Interannual variation of ATM changed the separation latitude of EKWC and increased the variability of surface circulation in the Ulleung Basin. Interannual variation of OBC enhanced low-frequency changes in surface circulation and eddies in the Yamato Basin. It also modulated basin-wide uniform oscillations of sea level. This study suggests that precise estimation of initial conditions using data assimilation is essential for long-term prediction of surface circulation in the JES.

Ocean circulation and biogeochemistry moderate interannual and decadal surface water pH changes in the Sargasso Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathalie F. Goodkin,; Bo-Shian Wang,; Chen-Feng You,; Konrad Hughen,; Prouty, Nancy G.; Bates, Nicholas; Scott Doney,

2015-01-01

The oceans absorb anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere, lowering surface ocean pH, a concern for calcifying marine organisms. The impact of ocean acidification is challenging to predict as each species appears to respond differently and because our knowledge of natural changes to ocean pH is limited in both time and space. Here we reconstruct 222 years of biennial seawater pH variability in the Sargasso Sea from a brain coral, Diploria labyrinthiformis. Using hydrographic data from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study and the coral-derived pH record, we are able to differentiate pH changes due to surface temperature versus those from ocean circulation and biogeochemical changes. We find that ocean pH does not simply reflect atmospheric CO2 trends but rather that circulation/biogeochemical changes account for >90% of pH variability in the Sargasso Sea and more variability in the last century than would be predicted from anthropogenic uptake of CO2 alone.

Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink variability - first results of the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödenbeck, C.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Gruber, N.; Iida, Y.; Jacobson, A. R.; Jones, S.; Landschützer, P.; Metzl, N.; Nakaoka, S.; Olsen, A.; Park, G.-H.; Peylin, P.; Rodgers, K. B.; Sasse, T. P.; Schuster, U.; Shutler, J. D.; Valsala, V.; Wanninkhof, R.; Zeng, J.

2015-08-01

Using measurements of the surface-ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and 14 different pCO2 mapping methods recently collated by the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) initiative, variations in regional and global sea-air CO2 fluxes have been investigated. Though the available mapping methods use widely different approaches, we find relatively consistent estimates of regional pCO2 seasonality, in line with previous estimates. In terms of interannual variability (IAV), all mapping methods estimate the largest variations to occur in the Eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite considerable spead in the detailed variations, mapping methods with closer match to the data also tend to be more consistent with each other. Encouragingly, this includes mapping methods belonging to complementary types - taking variability either directly from the pCO2 data or indirectly from driver data via regression. From a weighted ensemble average, we find an IAV amplitude of the global sea-air CO2 flux of 0.31 PgC yr-1 (standard deviation over 1992-2009), which is larger than simulated by biogeochemical process models. On a decadal perspective, the global CO2 uptake is estimated to have gradually increased since about 2000, with little decadal change prior to 2000. The weighted mean total ocean CO2 sink estimated by the SOCOM ensemble is consistent within uncertainties with estimates from ocean-interior carbon data or atmospheric oxygen trends.

On the ability of a global atmospheric inversion to constrain variations of CO2 fluxes over Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, L.; Broquet, G.; Imbach, P.; Chevallier, F.; Poulter, B.; Bonal, D.; Burban, B.; Ramonet, M.; Gatti, L. V.; Wofsy, S. C.; Munger, J. W.; Dlugokencky, E.; Ciais, P.

2015-07-01

The exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the atmosphere and the Amazon basin have global implications for the current and future climate. Here, the global atmospheric inversion system of the Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) service is used to study the seasonal and interannual variations of biogenic CO2 fluxes in Amazonia during the period 2002-2010. The system assimilated surface measurements of atmospheric CO2 mole fractions made at more than 100 sites over the globe into an atmospheric transport model. The present study adds measurements from four surface stations located in tropical South America, a region poorly covered by CO2 observations. The estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) optimized by the inversion are compared to an independent estimate of NEE upscaled from eddy-covariance flux measurements in Amazonia. They are also qualitatively evaluated against reports on the seasonal and interannual variations of the land sink in South America from the scientific literature. We attempt at assessing the impact on NEE of the strong droughts in 2005 and 2010 (due to severe and longer-than-usual dry seasons) and the extreme rainfall conditions registered in 2009. The spatial variations of the seasonal and interannual variability of optimized NEE are also investigated. While the inversion supports the assumption of strong spatial heterogeneity of these variations, the results reveal critical limitations of the coarse-resolution transport model, the surface observation network in South America during the recent years and the present knowledge of modelling uncertainties in South America that prevent our inversion from capturing the seasonal patterns of fluxes across Amazonia. However, some patterns from the inversion seem consistent with the anomaly of moisture conditions in 2009.

Interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 growth rate: relative contribution from precipitation and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Zeng, N.; Wang, M. R.

2015-12-01

The interannual variability (IAV) in atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) is closely connected with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. However, sensitivities of CGR to temperature and precipitation remain largely uncertain. This paper analyzed the relationship between Mauna Loa CGR and tropical land climatic elements. We find that Mauna Loa CGR lags precipitation by 4 months with a correlation coefficient of -0.63, leads temperature by 1 month (0.77), and correlates with soil moisture (-0.65) with zero lag. Additionally, precipitation and temperature are highly correlated (-0.66), with precipitation leading by 4-5 months. Regression analysis shows that sensitivities of Mauna Loa CGR to temperature and precipitation are 2.92 ± 0.20 Pg C yr-1 K-1 and -0.46 ± 0.07 Pg C yr-1 100 mm-1, respectively. Unlike some recent suggestions, these empirical relationships favor neither temperature nor precipitation as the dominant factor of CGR IAV. We further analyzed seven terrestrial carbon cycle models, from the TRENDY project, to study the processes underlying CGR IAV. All models capture well the IAV of tropical land-atmosphere carbon flux (CFTA). Sensitivities of the ensemble mean CFTA to temperature and precipitation are 3.18 ± 0.11 Pg C yr-1 K-1 and -0.67 ± 0.04 Pg C yr-1 100 mm-1, close to Mauna Loa CGR. Importantly, the models consistently show the variability in net primary productivity (NPP) dominates CGR, rather than soil respiration. Because NPP is largely driven by precipitation, this suggests a key role of precipitation in CGR IAV despite the higher CGR correlation with temperature. Understanding the relative contribution of CO2 sensitivity to precipitation and temperature has important implications for future carbon-climate feedback using such "emergent constraint".

Assimilation of ocean colour to improve the simulation and understanding of the North West European shelf-sea ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciavatta, Stefano; Brewin, Robert; Skakala, Jozef; Sursham, David; Ford, David

2017-04-01

Shelf-seas and coastal zones provide essential goods and services to humankind, such as fisheries, aquaculture, tourism and climate regulation. The understanding and management of these regions can be enhanced by merging ocean-colour observations and marine ecosystem simulations through data assimilation, which provides (sub)optimal estimates of key biogeochemical variables. Here we present a range of applications of ocean-colour data assimilation in the North West European shelf-sea. A reanalysis application illustrates that assimilation of error-characterized chlorophyll concentrations could provide a map of the shelf sea vulnerability to oxygen deficiency, as well as estimates of the shelf sea uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in the last decade. The interannual variability of CO2 uptake and its uncertainty were related significantly to interannual fluctuations of the simulated primary production. However, the reanalysis also indicates that assimilation of total chlorophyll did not improve significantly the simulation of some other variables, e.g. nutrients. We show that the assimilation of alternative products derived from ocean colour (i.e. spectral diffuse attenuation coefficient and phytoplankton size classes) can overcome this limitation. In fact, these products can constrain a larger number of model variables, which define either the underwater light field or the structure of the lower trophic levels. Therefore, the assimilation of such ocean-colour products into marine ecosystem models is an advantageous novel approach to improve the understanding and simulation of shelf-sea environments.

Mars: A Planet with a Dynamic Climate System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Mars is a well-observed planet. Since the 1960s orbiters, landers, rovers, and earth-based telescopic observations show that its climate system is dynamic. Its dynamic nature, largely the result of atmosphere-surface interactions, is most obvious in the seasonal cycles of dust, water, and carbon dioxide that define the planet's climate system. These cycles are linked through the global circulation and MGS, Odyssey, Phoenix, MER, Mars Express, MRO, and now MSL have continuously observed them at Mars for the past 16 years. Their observations show that while the seasonal cycles are largely annually repeatable, there are interannual variations. Planet-encircling dust storms, for example, are quasi-triennial and originate over a broader range of seasons and locations than previously thought. Water moves from pole-to-pole each year in a largely, but not precisely, repeatable pattern that suggests but does not demand non-polar surface reservoirs. And the seasonal CO2 polar caps grow and retreat in a very predictable way with only minor deviations from year-to-year in spite of significant differences in atmospheric dust content. These behaviors suggest a complicated but robust coupled system in which these cycles interact to produce the greatest interannual variability in the dust cycle and least variability in the CO2 cycle. The nature of these interactions is the subject of ongoing research, but clouds, both water ice and CO2 ice, now appear to play a bigger role than believed at the end of the 20th century. There may also be some long-term trends in these cycles as there is evidence from imaging data, for example, that the south polar residual cap may not be stable on decadal to centennial time scales. On even longer time scales, the discovery of as much as 5 mb global equivalent of buried CO2 ice near the south pole, the detection of vast quantities of subsurface water ice at very shallow depths in midlatitudes of both hemispheres, and the presence of remnant glacial features at almost all latitudes, strongly suggests the possibility of significant climate change associated with orbital variations. Some of the major questions these data raise concern how closed the seasonal cycles are and which reservoirs are gaining or loosing, the cause of the large interannual variability of the dust cycle and how it couples to the water and CO2 cycles, and the mechanisms for the origin of past glacial activity and the emplacement and removal of subsurface ice. While many of these questions can be addressed with continued research based on existing data, new observations focused on atmosphere surface-interactions would provide valuable constraints on how dust, water, and CO2 move between the surface and atmosphere.

The CH2O column as a possible constraint on methane oxidation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valin, L. C.; Fiore, A. M.; Lin, M.

2013-12-01

We explore the potential for space-based measurements of the CH2O column to quantify variations of methane oxidation in the remote atmosphere due to changes in climate (e.g., T, H2O, stratospheric O3) and atmospheric composition (e.g., NOxO, O3, CO, CH4). We investigate the variability of methane oxidation and the formaldehyde column using available global simulations (MOZART-2 chemistry-transport model, GFDL AM3 climate-chemistry model). Over a large region (135° - 175° W; 0° - 16° S), the rate of methane oxidation simulated in the models varies intraseasonally (×10%), seasonally (×20%) and interannually (×5%), and is well correlated with the simulated variability of the CH2O column (R2 = 0.75; ~1x1015 molecules cm-2). The precision of a single space-based measurement is approximately 1×1016 molecules cm-2, an order of magnitude larger than the simulated variability of the CH2O column. However, in a large region such as the tropical Pacific, UV/Vis spectrometers are capable of making thousands of measurements daily, enough sampling to theoretically increase the precision by √N, such that variations on the order of 1×1015 molecules cm-2 should be observable on intraseasonal and interannual timescales.

Consequences of neglecting the interannual variability of the solar resource: A case study of photovoltaic power among the Hawaiian Islands

DOE PAGES

Bryce, Richard; Losada Carreno, Ignacio; Kumler, Andrew; ...

2018-04-05

The interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions are often ignored in favor of single-year data sets for modeling power generation and evaluating the economic value of photovoltaic (PV) power systems. Yet interannual variability significantly impacts the generation from one year to another of renewable power systems such as wind and PV. Consequently, the interannual variability of power generation corresponds to the interannual variability of capital returns on investment. The penetration of PV systems within the Hawaiian Electric Companies' portfolio has rapidly accelerated in recent years and is expected to continue to increase given the state's energy objectivesmore » laid out by the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative. We use the National Solar Radiation Database (1998-2015) to characterize the interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions across the State of Hawaii. These data sets are passed to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisory Model (SAM) to calculate an 18-year PV power generation data set to characterize the variability of PV power generation. We calculate the interannual coefficient of variability (COV) for annual average global horizontal irradiance (GHI) on the order of 2% and COV for annual capacity factor on the order of 3% across the Hawaiian archipelago. Regarding the interannual variability of seasonal trends, we calculate the COV for monthly average GHI values on the order of 5% and COV for monthly capacity factor on the order of 10%. We model residential-scale and utility-scale PV systems and calculate the economic returns of each system via the payback period and the net present value. We demonstrate that studies based on single-year data sets for economic evaluations reach conclusions that deviate from the true values realized by accounting for interannual variability.« less

Consequences of neglecting the interannual variability of the solar resource: A case study of photovoltaic power among the Hawaiian Islands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bryce, Richard; Losada Carreno, Ignacio; Kumler, Andrew

The interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions are often ignored in favor of single-year data sets for modeling power generation and evaluating the economic value of photovoltaic (PV) power systems. Yet interannual variability significantly impacts the generation from one year to another of renewable power systems such as wind and PV. Consequently, the interannual variability of power generation corresponds to the interannual variability of capital returns on investment. The penetration of PV systems within the Hawaiian Electric Companies' portfolio has rapidly accelerated in recent years and is expected to continue to increase given the state's energy objectivesmore » laid out by the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative. We use the National Solar Radiation Database (1998-2015) to characterize the interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions across the State of Hawaii. These data sets are passed to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisory Model (SAM) to calculate an 18-year PV power generation data set to characterize the variability of PV power generation. We calculate the interannual coefficient of variability (COV) for annual average global horizontal irradiance (GHI) on the order of 2% and COV for annual capacity factor on the order of 3% across the Hawaiian archipelago. Regarding the interannual variability of seasonal trends, we calculate the COV for monthly average GHI values on the order of 5% and COV for monthly capacity factor on the order of 10%. We model residential-scale and utility-scale PV systems and calculate the economic returns of each system via the payback period and the net present value. We demonstrate that studies based on single-year data sets for economic evaluations reach conclusions that deviate from the true values realized by accounting for interannual variability.« less

Using altimetry to help explain patchy changes in hydrographic carbon measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodgers, Keith B.; Key, Robert M.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Doney, Scott C.; Dunne, John P.; Glover, David M.; Ishida, Akio; Ishii, Masao; Jacobson, Andrew R.; Lo Monaco, Claire; Maier-Reimer, Ernst; Mercier, Herlé; Metzl, Nicolas; PéRez, Fiz F.; Rios, Aida F.; Wanninkhof, Rik; Wetzel, Patrick; Winn, Christopher D.; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro

2009-09-01

Here we use observations and ocean models to identify mechanisms driving large seasonal to interannual variations in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and dissolved oxygen (O2) in the upper ocean. We begin with observations linking variations in upper ocean DIC and O2 inventories with changes in the physical state of the ocean. Models are subsequently used to address the extent to which the relationships derived from short-timescale (6 months to 2 years) repeat measurements are representative of variations over larger spatial and temporal scales. The main new result is that convergence and divergence (column stretching) attributed to baroclinic Rossby waves can make a first-order contribution to DIC and O2 variability in the upper ocean. This results in a close correspondence between natural variations in DIC and O2 column inventory variations and sea surface height (SSH) variations over much of the ocean. Oceanic Rossby wave activity is an intrinsic part of the natural variability in the climate system and is elevated even in the absence of significant interannual variability in climate mode indices. The close correspondence between SSH and both DIC and O2 column inventories for many regions suggests that SSH changes (inferred from satellite altimetry) may prove useful in reducing uncertainty in separating natural and anthropogenic DIC signals (using measurements from Climate Variability and Predictability's CO2/Repeat Hydrography program).

Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink variability - first results of the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödenbeck, C.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Gruber, N.; Iida, Y.; Jacobson, A. R.; Jones, S.; Landschützer, P.; Metzl, N.; Nakaoka, S.; Olsen, A.; Park, G.-H.; Peylin, P.; Rodgers, K. B.; Sasse, T. P.; Schuster, U.; Shutler, J. D.; Valsala, V.; Wanninkhof, R.; Zeng, J.

2015-12-01

Using measurements of the surface-ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and 14 different pCO2 mapping methods recently collated by the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) initiative, variations in regional and global sea-air CO2 fluxes are investigated. Though the available mapping methods use widely different approaches, we find relatively consistent estimates of regional pCO2 seasonality, in line with previous estimates. In terms of interannual variability (IAV), all mapping methods estimate the largest variations to occur in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite considerable spread in the detailed variations, mapping methods that fit the data more closely also tend to agree more closely with each other in regional averages. Encouragingly, this includes mapping methods belonging to complementary types - taking variability either directly from the pCO2 data or indirectly from driver data via regression. From a weighted ensemble average, we find an IAV amplitude of the global sea-air CO2 flux of 0.31 PgC yr-1 (standard deviation over 1992-2009), which is larger than simulated by biogeochemical process models. From a decadal perspective, the global ocean CO2 uptake is estimated to have gradually increased since about 2000, with little decadal change prior to that. The weighted mean net global ocean CO2 sink estimated by the SOCOM ensemble is -1.75 PgC yr-1 (1992-2009), consistent within uncertainties with estimates from ocean-interior carbon data or atmospheric oxygen trends.

Tropical rainforests dominate multi-decadal variability of the global carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Wang, Y. P.; Peng, S.; Rayner, P. J.; Silver, J.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S.; Zhu, Z.; Lu, X.; Zheng, X.

2017-12-01

Recent studies find that inter-annual variability of global atmosphere-to-land CO2 uptake (NBP) is dominated by semi-arid ecosystems. However, the NBP variations at decadal to multi-decadal timescales are still not known. By developing a basic theory for the role of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) on NBP and applying it to 100-year simulations of terrestrial ecosystem models forced by observational climate, we find that tropical rainforests dominate the multi-decadal variability of global NBP (48%) rather than the semi-arid lands (35%). The NBP variation at inter-annual timescales is almost 90% contributed by NPP, but across longer timescales is progressively controlled by Rh that constitutes the response from the NPP-derived soil carbon input (40%) and the response of soil carbon turnover rates to climate variability (60%). The NBP variations of tropical rainforests is modulated by the ENSO and the PDO through their significant influences on temperature and precipitation at timescales of 2.5-7 and 25-50 years, respectively. This study highlights the importance of tropical rainforests on the multi-decadal variability of global carbon cycle, suggesting that we need to carefully differentiate the effect of NBP long-term fluctuations associated with ocean-related climate modes on the long-term trend in land sink.

Effects of Atmospheric and Surface Dust on the Sublimation Rates of CO2 on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonev, B. P.; James, P. B.; Bjorkman, J. E.; Hansen, G. B.; Wolff, M. J.

2003-01-01

We present an overview of our modeling work dedicated to study the effects of atmospheric dust on the sublimation of CO2 on Mars. The purpose of this study is to better understand the extent to which dust storm activity can be a root cause for interannual variability in the planetary CO2 seasonal cycle, through modifying the springtime regression rates of the south polar cap. We obtain calculations of the sublimation fluxes for various types of polar surfaces and different amounts of atmospheric dust. These calculations have been compared qualitatively with the regression patterns observed by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) in both visible and infrared wavelengths, for two years of very different dust histories (1999, and 2001).

Trends and Controls of inter-annual Variability in the Carbon Budget of Terrestrial Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.

2014-12-01

The climate sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon budget will substantially affect the sign and strength of the land-climate feedbacks and the future climate trajectories. Current trends in the inter-annual variability of terrestrial carbon fluxes (IAV) may contribute to clarify the relative role of physical and biological controls of ecosystem responses to climate change. For this purpose we investigated how recent climate variability has impacted the carbon fluxes at long-term FLUXNET sites. Using a novel method, the IAV has been factored out in climate induced variability (physical control), variability due to changes in ecosystem functioning (biological control) and the interaction of the two terms. The relative control of the main climatic drivers (temperature, water availability) on the physical and biological sources of IAV has been investigated using both site level fluxes and global gridded products generated from the up-scaling of flux data. Results of this analysis highlight the fundamental role of precipitation trends on the pattern of IAV in the last 30 years. Our findings on the spatial/temporal trends of IAV have been finally confirmed using the signal derived from the global network of atmospheric CO2 concentrations measurements.

January and July global distributions of atmospheric heating for 1986, 1987, and 1988

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaack, Todd K.; Johnson, Donald R.

1994-01-01

Three-dimensional global distributions of atmospheric heating are estimated for January and July of the 3-year period 1986-88 from the European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) assimilated datasets. Emphasis is placed on the interseasonal and interannual variability of heating both locally and regionally. Large fluctuations in the magnitude of heating and the disposition of maxima/minima in the Tropics occur over the 3-year period. This variability, which is largely in accord with anomalous precipitation expected during the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, appears realistic. In both January and July, interannual differences of 1.0-1.5 K/day in the vertically averaged heating occur over the tropical Pacific. These interannual regional differences are substantial in comparison with maximum monthly averaged heating rates of 2.0-2.5 K/day. In the extratropics, the most prominent interannual variability occurs along the wintertime North Atlantic cyclone track. Vertical profiles of heating from selected regions also reveal large interannual variability. Clearly evident is the modulation of the heating within tropical regions of deep moist convection associated with the evolution of the ENSO cycle. The heating integrated over continental and oceanic basins emphasizes the impact of land and ocean surfaces on atmospheric energy balance and depicts marked interseasonal and interannual large-scale variability.

Radiative effects of interannually varying vs. interannually invariant aerosol emissions from fires

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grandey, Benjamin S.; Lee, Hsiang-He; Wang, Chien

Open-burning fires play an important role in the earth's climate system. In addition to contributing a substantial fraction of global emissions of carbon dioxide, they are a major source of atmospheric aerosols containing organic carbon, black carbon, and sulfate. These “fire aerosols” can influence the climate via direct and indirect radiative effects. In this study, we investigate these radiative effects and the hydrological fast response using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Emissions of fire aerosols exert a global mean net radiative effect of −1.0 W m −2, dominated by the cloud shortwave response to organic carbon aerosol. The net radiative effectmore » is particularly strong over boreal regions. Conventionally, many climate modelling studies have used an interannually invariant monthly climatology of emissions of fire aerosols. However, by comparing simulations using interannually varying emissions vs. interannually invariant emissions, we find that ignoring the interannual variability of the emissions can lead to systematic overestimation of the strength of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols. Globally, the overestimation is +23 % (−0.2 W m −2). Regionally, the overestimation can be substantially larger. For example, over Australia and New Zealand the overestimation is +58 % (−1.2 W m −2), while over Boreal Asia the overestimation is +43 % (−1.9 W m −2). The systematic overestimation of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols is likely due to the non-linear influence of aerosols on clouds. However, ignoring interannual variability in the emissions does not appear to significantly impact the hydrological fast response. In order to improve understanding of the climate system, we need to take into account the interannual variability of aerosol emissions.« less

Radiative effects of interannually varying vs. interannually invariant aerosol emissions from fires

DOE PAGES

Grandey, Benjamin S.; Lee, Hsiang-He; Wang, Chien

2016-11-23

Open-burning fires play an important role in the earth's climate system. In addition to contributing a substantial fraction of global emissions of carbon dioxide, they are a major source of atmospheric aerosols containing organic carbon, black carbon, and sulfate. These “fire aerosols” can influence the climate via direct and indirect radiative effects. In this study, we investigate these radiative effects and the hydrological fast response using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Emissions of fire aerosols exert a global mean net radiative effect of −1.0 W m −2, dominated by the cloud shortwave response to organic carbon aerosol. The net radiative effectmore » is particularly strong over boreal regions. Conventionally, many climate modelling studies have used an interannually invariant monthly climatology of emissions of fire aerosols. However, by comparing simulations using interannually varying emissions vs. interannually invariant emissions, we find that ignoring the interannual variability of the emissions can lead to systematic overestimation of the strength of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols. Globally, the overestimation is +23 % (−0.2 W m −2). Regionally, the overestimation can be substantially larger. For example, over Australia and New Zealand the overestimation is +58 % (−1.2 W m −2), while over Boreal Asia the overestimation is +43 % (−1.9 W m −2). The systematic overestimation of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols is likely due to the non-linear influence of aerosols on clouds. However, ignoring interannual variability in the emissions does not appear to significantly impact the hydrological fast response. In order to improve understanding of the climate system, we need to take into account the interannual variability of aerosol emissions.« less

A worldwide analysis of trends in water-balance evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ukkola, A. M.; Prentice, I. C.

2013-10-01

Climate change is expected to alter the global hydrological cycle, with inevitable consequences for freshwater availability to people and ecosystems. But the attribution of recent trends in the terrestrial water balance remains disputed. This study attempts to account statistically for both trends and interannual variability in water-balance evapotranspiration (ET), estimated from the annual observed streamflow in 109 river basins during "water years" 1961-1999 and two gridded precipitation data sets. The basins were chosen based on the availability of streamflow time-series data in the Dai et al. (2009) synthesis. They were divided into water-limited "dry" and energy-limited "wet" basins following the Budyko framework. We investigated the potential roles of precipitation, aerosol-corrected solar radiation, land use change, wind speed, air temperature, and atmospheric CO2. Both trends and variability in ET show strong control by precipitation. There is some additional control of ET trends by vegetation processes, but little evidence for control by other factors. Interannual variability in ET was overwhelmingly dominated by precipitation, which accounted on average for 54-55% of the variation in wet basins (ranging from 0 to 100%) and 94-95% in dry basins (ranging from 69 to 100%). Precipitation accounted for 45-46% of ET trends in wet basins and 80-84% in dry basins. Net atmospheric CO2 effects on transpiration, estimated using the Land-surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) model, did not contribute to observed trends in ET because declining stomatal conductance was counteracted by slightly but significantly increasing foliage cover.

Patterns and controls of inter-annual variability in the terrestrial carbon budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcolla, Barbara; Rödenbeck, Christian; Cescatti, Alessandro

2017-08-01

The terrestrial carbon fluxes show the largest variability among the components of the global carbon cycle and drive most of the temporal variations in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2. Understanding the environmental controls and trends of the terrestrial carbon budget is therefore essential to predict the future trajectories of the CO2 airborne fraction and atmospheric concentrations. In the present work, patterns and controls of the inter-annual variability (IAV) of carbon net ecosystem exchange (NEE) have been analysed using three different data streams: ecosystem-level observations from the FLUXNET database (La Thuile and 2015 releases), the MPI-MTE (model tree ensemble) bottom-up product resulting from the global upscaling of site-level fluxes, and the Jena CarboScope Inversion, a top-down estimate of surface fluxes obtained from observed CO2 concentrations and an atmospheric transport model. Consistencies and discrepancies in the temporal and spatial patterns and in the climatic and physiological controls of IAV were investigated between the three data sources. Results show that the global average of IAV at FLUXNET sites, quantified as the standard deviation of annual NEE, peaks in arid ecosystems and amounts to ˜ 120 gC m-2 y-1, almost 6 times more than the values calculated from the two global products (15 and 20 gC m-2 y-1 for MPI-MTE and the Jena Inversion, respectively). Most of the temporal variability observed in the last three decades of the MPI-MTE and Jena Inversion products is due to yearly anomalies, whereas the temporal trends explain only about 15 and 20 % of the variability, respectively. Both at the site level and on a global scale, the IAV of NEE is driven by the gross primary productivity and in particular by the cumulative carbon flux during the months when land acts as a sink. Altogether these results offer a broad view on the magnitude, spatial patterns and environmental drivers of IAV from a variety of data sources that can be instrumental to improve our understanding of the terrestrial carbon budget and to validate the predictions of land surface models.

Influence of changes in wetland inundation extent on net fluxes of carbon dioxide and methane in northern high latitudes from 1993 to 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhuang, Qianlai; Zhu, Xudong; He, Yujie; Prigent, Catherine; Melillo, Jerry M.; McGuire, A. David; Prinn, Ronald G.; Kicklighter, David W.

2015-01-01

Estimates of the seasonal and interannual exchanges of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) between land ecosystems north of 45°N and the atmosphere are poorly constrained, in part, because of uncertainty in the temporal variability of water-inundated land area. Here we apply a process-based biogeochemistry model to evaluate how interannual changes in wetland inundation extent might have influenced the overall carbon dynamics of the region during the time period 1993–2004. We find that consideration by our model of these interannual variations between 1993 and 2004, on average, results in regional estimates of net methane sources of 67.8 ± 6.2 Tg CH4 yr−1, which is intermediate to model estimates that use two static inundation extent datasets (51.3 ± 2.6 and 73.0 ± 3.6 Tg CH4 yr−1). In contrast, consideration of interannual changes of wetland inundation extent result in regional estimates of the net CO2 sink of −1.28 ± 0.03 Pg C yr−1 with a persistent wetland carbon sink from −0.38 to −0.41 Pg C yr−1 and a upland sink from −0.82 to −0.98 Pg C yr−1. Taken together, despite the large methane emissions from wetlands, the region is a consistent greenhouse gas sink per global warming potential (GWP) calculations irrespective of the type of wetland datasets being used. However, the use of satellite-detected wetland inundation extent estimates a smaller regional GWP sink than that estimated using static wetland datasets. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that if wetland inundation extent increases or decreases by 10% in each wetland grid cell, the regional source of methane increases 13% or decreases 12%, respectively. In contrast, the regional CO2 sink responds with only 7–9% changes to the changes in wetland inundation extent. Seasonally, the inundated area changes result in higher summer CH4 emissions, but lower summer CO2 sinks, leading to lower summer negative greenhouse gas forcing. Our analysis further indicates that wetlands play a disproportionally important role in affecting regional greenhouse gas budgets given that they only occupy approximately 10% of the total land area in the region.

CMIP5 models' shortwave cloud radiative response and climate sensitivity linked to the climatological Hadley cell extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipat, Bernard R.; Tselioudis, George; Grise, Kevin M.; Polvani, Lorenzo M.

2017-06-01

This study analyzes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) model output to examine the covariability of interannual Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell (HC) edge latitude shifts and shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE). In control climate runs, during years when the HC edge is anomalously poleward, most models substantially reduce the shortwave radiation reflected by clouds in the lower midlatitude region (LML; ˜28°S-˜48°S), although no such reduction is seen in observations. These biases in HC-SWCRE covariability are linked to biases in the climatological HC extent. Notably, models with excessively equatorward climatological HC extents have weaker climatological LML subsidence and exhibit larger increases in LML subsidence with poleward HC edge expansion. This behavior, based on control climate interannual variability, has important implications for the CO2-forced model response. In 4×CO2-forced runs, models with excessively equatorward climatological HC extents produce stronger SW cloud radiative warming in the LML region and tend to have larger climate sensitivity values than models with more realistic climatological HC extents.

Evaluation of the ORCHIDEE ecosystem model over Africa against 25 years of satellite-based water and carbon measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Traore, Abdoul Khadre; Ciais, Philippe; Vuichard, Nicolas; Poulter, Benjamin; Viovy, Nicolas; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Jung, Martin; Myneni, Ranga; Fisher, Joshua B.

2014-08-01

Few studies have evaluated land surface models for African ecosystems. Here we evaluate the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) process-based model for the interannual variability (IAV) of the fraction of absorbed active radiation, the gross primary productivity (GPP), soil moisture, and evapotranspiration (ET). Two ORCHIDEE versions are tested, which differ by their soil hydrology parameterization, one with a two-layer simple bucket and the other a more complex 11-layer soil-water diffusion. In addition, we evaluate the sensitivity of climate forcing data, atmospheric CO2, and soil depth. Beside a very generic vegetation parameterization, ORCHIDEE simulates rather well the IAV of GPP and ET (0.5 < r < 0.9 interannual correlation) over Africa except in forestlands. The ORCHIDEE 11-layer version outperforms the two-layer version for simulating IAV of soil moisture, whereas both versions have similar performance of GPP and ET. Effects of CO2 trends, and of variable soil depth on the IAV of GPP, ET, and soil moisture are small, although these drivers influence the trends of these variables. The meteorological forcing data appear to be quite important for faithfully reproducing the IAV of simulated variables, suggesting that in regions with sparse weather station data, the model uncertainty is strongly related to uncertain meteorological forcing. Simulated variables are positively and strongly correlated with precipitation but negatively and weakly correlated with temperature and solar radiation. Model-derived and observation-based sensitivities are in agreement for the driving role of precipitation. However, the modeled GPP is too sensitive to precipitation, suggesting that processes such as increased water use efficiency during drought need to be incorporated in ORCHIDEE.

Interannual to decadal variability of circulation in the northern Japan/East Sea, 1958-2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepanov, Dmitry; Stepanova, Victoriia; Gusev, Anatoly

2015-04-01

We use a numerical ocean model INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model) and atmospheric forcing data extracted from the CORE (Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiments) dataset and reconstruct a circulation in the Japan/East Sea (JES) from 1958 to 2006 and its interannual and decadal variability in the intermediate and abyssal layers in the northern JES. It is founded that the circulation is cyclonic over the course of a climatological year. The circulation increases in spring and decreases in autumn. We analyzes the relative vorticity (RV) averaged over the Japan Basin (JB) and show that the variability is characterized by the interannual oscillations (2.3, 3.7 and 4.7 years) and decadal variability (9.5 and 14.3 years). The spectrum structure of the average RV variability does not change with depth; however, the energy of the decadal oscillations decreases in contrast to that of the interannual oscillations. We analyze monthly anomalies of the wind stress curl and sensible heat flux and reveal that interannual variability (3-4 years) of the circulation over the JB result from 4-year variability of the wind stress curl. In contrast, the decadal variability (period of 9.5 years) of the circulation over the JB is generated by both the wind stress curl and the decadal variability in deep convection.

Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

2016-01-01

We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

Regional and hemispheric influences on temporal variability in baseline carbon monoxide and ozone over the Northeast US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Mao, H.; Demerjian, K.; Hogrefe, C.; Liu, J.

2017-09-01

Interannual variability in baseline carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3), defined as mixing ratios under minimal influence of recent and local emissions, was studied for seven rural sites in the Northeast US over 2001-2010. Annual baseline CO exhibited statistically significant decreasing trends (-4.3 to -2.3 ppbv yr-1), while baseline O3 did not display trends at any site. In examining the data by season, wintertime and springtime baseline CO at the two highest sites (1.5 km and 2 km asl) did not experience significant trends. Decadal increasing trends (∼2.55 ppbv yr-1) were found in springtime and wintertime baseline O3 in southern New Hampshire, which was associated with anthropogenic NOx emission reductions from the urban corridor. Biomass burning emissions impacted summertime baseline CO with ∼38% variability from wildfire emissions in Russia and ∼22% from Canada at five sites and impacted baseline O3 at the two high elevation sites only with ∼27% variability from wildfires in both Russia and Canada. The Arctic Oscillation was negatively correlated with summertime baseline O3, while the North Atlantic Oscillation was positively correlated with springtime baseline O3. This study suggested that anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, and meteorological conditions were important factors working together to determine baseline O3 and CO in the Northeast U.S. during the 2000s.

Regional Relationship between CO and O3 in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, H.; Talbot, R.

2003-12-01

The seasonality and interannual variability in the mixing ratios of ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) and their inter-relationship were investigated at the rural low elevation site Thompson Farm (TF) and the hill site Castle Springs (400 m above ground level) in southern New Hampshire using continuous observations (2001-2003) from the Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (AIRMAP) program at University of New Hampshire (UNH). Our results show distinct site-dependent characteristics in temporal variations on various time scales in O3 and CO and particularly large interannual variability in fall and winter at both sites. The grouped O3 and CO data, based on wind speed and direction over different time periods of the day, showed largely varying probability distribution functions (PDF). It was found that only 10% of the seasonal observations formed a positive O3-CO linear correlation, leading to an estimate of 370 M moles d-1 for O3 export from the northeastern U.S. This estimate is three times smaller than previous studies. We used a ratio analysis (NO/NOy and NOy/CO) to show that the linear O3-CO relationships were a result of multiple processes rather than simply either photochemical or depositonal loss processes as proposed by previous work. One of the most important features of the O3-CO relationship is the lower CO boundary, for which we attempeted to provide physical and chemical interpretations.

Biological and physical controls on O2/Ar, Ar and pCO2 variability at the Western Antarctic Peninsula and in the Drake Passage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eveleth, R.; Cassar, N.; Doney, S. C.; Munro, D. R.; Sweeney, C.

2017-05-01

Using simultaneous sub-kilometer resolution underway measurements of surface O2/Ar, total O2 and pCO2 from annual austral summer surveys in 2012, 2013 and 2014, we explore the impacts of biological and physical processes on the O2 and pCO2 system spatial and interannual variability at the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). In the WAP, mean O2/Ar supersaturation was (7.6±9.1)% and mean pCO2 supersaturation was (-28±22)%. We see substantial spatial variability in O2 and pCO2 including sub-mesoscale/mesoscale variability with decorrelation length scales of 4.5 km, consistent with the regional Rossby radius. This variability is embedded within onshore-offshore gradients. O2 in the LTER grid region is driven primarily by biological processes as seen by the median ratio of the magnitude of biological oxygen (O2/Ar) to physical oxygen (Ar) supersaturation anomalies (%) relative to atmospheric equilibrium (2.6), however physical processes have a more pronounced influence in the southern onshore region of the grid where we see active sea-ice melting. Total O2 measurements should be interpreted with caution in regions of significant sea-ice formation and melt and glacial meltwater input. pCO2 undersaturation predominantly reflects biological processes in the LTER grid. In contrast we compare these results to the Drake Passage where gas supersaturations vary by smaller magnitudes and decorrelate at length scales of 12 km, in line with latitudinal changes in the regional Rossby radius. Here biological processes induce smaller O2/Ar supersaturations (mean (0.14±1.3)%) and pCO2 undersaturations (mean (-2.8±3.9)%) than in the WAP, and pressure changes, bubble and gas exchange fluxes drive stable Ar supersaturations.

Factors influencing inter-annual variability of growing season optimum gross primary production and ecosystem respiration in a semi-arid savanna ecosystem: A case study of Skukuza, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brummer, C.; Mukwashi, K.; Falge, E. M.; Mudau, A.; Odipo, V.; Schmullius, C.; Lenfers, U.; Thiel-Clemen, T.; Thomas, C. K.; Kutsch, W. L.; Scholes, R. J.; Berger, C.

2016-12-01

The goal of this study was to improve understanding of factors affecting temporal carbon metabolism at a natural savanna site near Skukuza, South Africa. We investigated inter-annual variability of optimum gross primary production (GPPopt) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) from 2000-2014. GPPopt refers to maximum total amount of carbon fixed by plants per unit area and time. Carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes have been measured continuously at a 16 m tower at Skukuza using eddy covariance technique since 2000. The GPPopt and Reco parameters were derived from modelled light response curve fits of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for summer `vegetative' periods. Hydro-ecological years (HEY) were stratified into functional seasons and data were classified into three soil moisture (SM) classes, i.e. wet (SM ≥ 9%), drying (6%< SM ≤9%) and dry periods (SM ≤ 6%), in order to separate biologically functional periods from periods of water constraints. For each SM class data were sub-classified into four air temperature (Tair) classes to separate Tair effects on NEE response to light. Wet periods recorded higher GPPopt and Reco estimates compared to drying periods. The curve fits for dry periods were not significant. We found high variability of GPPopt and Reco from `summer' to `summer' of each HEY. Wet period GPPopt of 2008/2009 and 2010/2011 were highest with 29.2±1.8 and 32.7±1.6 µmol CO2 m-2s-1, respectively, whilst 2006/2007 recorded the lowest GPPopt of 6.5±1.3 µmol CO2 m-2s-1 for Tair class `20°Cair≤25°C'. A similar pattern for Reco trend was observed. We also investigated the influence of rainfall distribution and amount, vapour pressure deficit, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) on the GPPopt and Reco trends and found a high correlation between GPPopt and variables NDVI and EVI. Our findings have implications in understanding causality and temporal dynamics of GPPopt and Reco in precipitation pulse-driven semi-arid ecosystems.

Seasonal and interannual variability of carbon monoxide based on MOZAIC observations, MACC reanalysis, and model simulations over an urban site in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheel, Varun; Sahu, L. K.; Kajino, M.; Deushi, M.; Stein, O.; Nedelec, P.

2014-07-01

The spatial and temporal variations of carbon monoxide (CO) are analyzed over a tropical urban site, Hyderabad (17°27'N, 78°28'E) in central India. We have used vertical profiles from the Measurement of ozone and water vapor by Airbus in-service aircraft (MOZAIC) aircraft observations, Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) reanalysis, and two chemical transport model simulations (Model for Ozone And Related Tracers (MOZART) and MRI global Chemistry Climate Model (MRI-CCM2)) for the years 2006-2008. In the lower troposphere, the CO mixing ratio showed strong seasonality, with higher levels (>300 ppbv) during the winter and premonsoon seasons associated with a stable anticyclonic circulation, while lower CO values (up to 100 ppbv) were observed in the monsoon season. In the planetary boundary layer (PBL), the seasonal distribution of CO shows the impact of both local meteorology and emissions. While the PBL CO is predominantly influenced by strong winds, bringing regional background air from marine and biomass burning regions, under calm conditions CO levels are elevated by local emissions. On the other hand, in the free troposphere, seasonal variation reflects the impact of long-range transport associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and biomass burning. The interannual variations were mainly due to transition from El Niño to La Niña conditions. The overall modified normalized mean biases (normalization based on the observed and model mean values) with respect to the observed CO profiles were lower for the MACC reanalysis than the MOZART and MRI-CCM2 models. The CO in the PBL region was consistently underestimated by MACC reanalysis during all the seasons, while MOZART and MRI-CCM2 show both positive and negative biases depending on the season.

Interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 growth rate: roles of precipitation and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Zeng, Ning; Wang, Meirong

2016-04-01

The interannual variability (IAV) in atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) is closely connected with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. However, sensitivities of CGR to temperature and precipitation remain largely uncertain. This paper analyzed the relationship between Mauna Loa CGR and tropical land climatic elements. We find that Mauna Loa CGR lags precipitation by 4 months with a correlation coefficient of -0.63, leads temperature by 1 month (0.77), and correlates with soil moisture (-0.65) with zero lag. Additionally, precipitation and temperature are highly correlated (-0.66), with precipitation leading by 4-5 months. Regression analysis shows that sensitivities of Mauna Loa CGR to temperature and precipitation are 2.92 ± 0.20 PgC yr-1 K-1 and -0.46 ± 0.07 PgC yr-1 100 mm-1, respectively. Unlike some recent suggestions, these empirical relationships favor neither temperature nor precipitation as the dominant factor of CGR IAV. We further analyzed seven terrestrial carbon cycle models, from the TRENDY project, to study the processes underlying CGR IAV. All models capture well the IAV of tropical land-atmosphere carbon flux (CFTA). Sensitivities of the ensemble mean CFTA to temperature and precipitation are 3.18 ± 0.11 PgC yr-1 K-1 and -0.67 ± 0.04 PgC yr-1 100 mm-1, close to Mauna Loa CGR. Importantly, the models consistently show the variability in net primary productivity (NPP) dominates CGR, rather than heterotrophic respiration. Because previous studies have proved that NPP is largely driven by precipitation in tropics, it suggests a key role of precipitation in CGR IAV despite the higher CGR correlation with temperature. Understanding the relative contribution of CO2 sensitivity to precipitation and temperature has important implications for future carbon-climate feedback using such ''emergent constraint''.

Modeling Atmospheric CO2 Processes to Constrain the Missing Sink

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawa, S. R.; Denning, A. S.; Erickson, D. J.; Collatz, J. C.; Pawson, S.

2005-01-01

We report on a NASA supported modeling effort to reduce uncertainty in carbon cycle processes that create the so-called missing sink of atmospheric CO2. Our overall objective is to improve characterization of CO2 source/sink processes globally with improved formulations for atmospheric transport, terrestrial uptake and release, biomass and fossil fuel burning, and observational data analysis. The motivation for this study follows from the perspective that progress in determining CO2 sources and sinks beyond the current state of the art will rely on utilization of more extensive and intensive CO2 and related observations including those from satellite remote sensing. The major components of this effort are: 1) Continued development of the chemistry and transport model using analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, with comparison to real time data in both forward and inverse modes; 2) An advanced biosphere model, constrained by remote sensing data, coupled to the global transport model to produce distributions of CO2 fluxes and concentrations that are consistent with actual meteorological variability; 3) Improved remote sensing estimates for biomass burning emission fluxes to better characterize interannual variability in the atmospheric CO2 budget and to better constrain the land use change source; 4) Evaluating the impact of temporally resolved fossil fuel emission distributions on atmospheric CO2 gradients and variability. 5) Testing the impact of existing and planned remote sensing data sources (e.g., AIRS, MODIS, OCO) on inference of CO2 sources and sinks, and use the model to help establish measurement requirements for future remote sensing instruments. The results will help to prepare for the use of OCO and other satellite data in a multi-disciplinary carbon data assimilation system for analysis and prediction of carbon cycle changes and carbodclimate interactions.

Stable Carbon Isotopes in Treerings; Revisiting the Paleocloud Proxy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagen, M.; Zorita, E.; Dorado Liñán, I.; Loader, N.; McCarroll, D.; Robertson, I.; Young, G.

2017-12-01

The long term relationship between cloud cover and temperature is one of the most important climate feedbacks contributing to determining the value of climate sensitivity. Climate models still reveal a large spread in the simulation of changes in cloud cover under future warming scenarios and clarity might be aided by a picture of the past variability of cloudiness. Stable carbon isotope ratios from tree ring records have been successfully piloted as a palaeocloud proxy in geographical areas traditionally producing strong dendroclimatological reconstructions (high northern latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere) and with some notable successes elsewhere too. An expansion of tree-ring based palaeocloud reconstructions might help to estimate past variations of cloud cover in periods colder or warmer than the 20th century, providing a way to test model test this specific aspect. Calibration with measured instrumental sunshine and cloud data reveals stable carbon isotope ratios from tree rings as an indicator of incoming short wave solar radiation (SWR) in non-moisture stressed sites, but the statistical identification of the SWR signal is hampered by its interannual co-variability with air temperature during the growing season. Here we present a spatio-temporal statistical analysis of a multivariate stable carbon isotope tree ring data set over Europe to assess its usefulness to reconstruct past solar radiation changes. The interannual co-variability of the tree ring records stronger covariation with SWR than with air temperature. The resulting spatial patterns of interannual co-variability are strongly linked to atmospheric circulation in a physically consistent manner. However, the multidecadal variations in the proxy records show a less physically coherent picture. We explore whether atmospheric corrections applied to the proxy series are contributing to differences in the multi decadal signal and investigate whether multidecadal variations in soil moisture perturb the SWR. Preliminary results of strategies to bypass these problems are explored.

The magnitude of interannual variability of ecosystem photosynthetic capacity is controled by stand age and biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musavi, Talie; Migliavacca, Mirco; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Reichstein, Markus; Kattge, Jens; Wirth, Christian; Black, T. Andrew; Janssens, Ivan; Knohl, Alexander; Loustau, Denis; Roupsard, Olivier; Varlagin, Andrej; Rambal, Serge; Cescatti, Alessandro; Gianelle, Damiano; Kondo, Hiroaki; Tamrakar, Rijan

2017-04-01

Gross primary productivity, GPP, the total uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by ecosystems via photosynthesis, is the largest flux in the global carbon cycle. The photosynthetic capacity at light saturation (GPPsat) is a fundamental ecosystem functional property and its interannual variability (IAV) is propagated to the net ecosystem exchange of CO2. In this contribution we made use of a variety of data streams consisting of ecosystem-atmosphere CO2 fluxes measured at eddy covariance flux sites with more than 4 years of data, the GPPsat derived at the different sites, information about climate (temperature, precipitation, and water availability index - WAI), biodiversity information and species richness, stand age, and plant traits, nutrient availability indexes derived from field campaigns, ancillary databases, and the literature. We also used data about forest structure derived from satellite products. Sites were selected according to the availability of eddy covariance flux measurements for at least 4 years, information about stand age, canopy cover, canopy height, and species abundance. The resulting global database consisted of 50 sites with different vegetation types across different climatic regions. Considering the importance of the understanding of IAV in CO2 fluxes to improve the predictive capacity of the global carbon cycle we analyzed a range of alternative hypotheses and potential drivers of the magnitude of IAV in GPPsat in forest ecosystems. The results show that the IAV in GPPsat within sites is driven by climate (i.e. fluctuations in air temperature and soil water availability), but the magnitude of IAV in GPPsat is related to ecosystem structure, and more in details to stand age and biodiversity (R2=0.55, p<0.0001). We conclude that irrespective of forest type the IAV of GPPsat in older and more diverse forests is dampened, and is higher in younger forests with few dominant species.

Impact of Dust on Mars Surface Albedo and Energy Flux with LMD General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, D.; Flanner, M.; Millour, E.; Martinez, G.

2015-12-01

Mars, just like Earth experience different seasons because of its axial tilt (about 25°). This causes growth and retreat of snow cover (primarily CO2) in Martian Polar regions. The perennial caps are the only place on the planet where condensed H2O is available at surface. On Mars, as much as 30% atmospheric CO2 deposits in each hemisphere depending upon the season. This leads to a significant variation on planet's surface albedo and hence effecting the amount of solar flux absorbed or reflected at the surface. General Circulation Model (GCM) of Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) currently uses observationally derived surface albedo from Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument for the polar caps. These TES albedo values do not have any inter-annual variability, and are independent of presence of any dust/impurity on surface. Presence of dust or other surface impurities can significantly reduce the surface albedo especially during and right after a dust storm. This change will also be evident in the surface energy flux interactions. Our work focuses on combining earth based Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model with current state of GCM to incorporate the impact of dust on Martian surface albedo, and hence the energy flux. Inter-annual variability of surface albedo and planet's top of atmosphere (TOA) energy budget along with their correlation with currently available mission data will be presented.

A worldwide analysis of trends in water-balance evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ukkola, A. M.; Prentice, I. C.

2013-05-01

Climate change is expected to alter the global hydrological cycle, with inevitable consequences for freshwater availability to people and ecosystems. But the attribution of recent trends in the terrestrial water balance remains disputed. This study attempts to account statistically for both trends and interannual variability in water-balance evapotranspiration (ET), estimated from the annual observed streamflow in 109 river basins during "water years" 1961-1999 and two gridded precipitation datasets. The basins were chosen based on the availability of streamflow time-series data in the Dai et al. (2009) synthesis. They were divided into water-limited "dry" and energy-limited "wet" basins following the Budyko framework. We investigated the potential roles of precipitation, aerosol-corrected solar radiation, land-use change, wind speed, air temperature, and atmospheric CO2. Both trends and variability in ET show strong control by precipitation. There is some additional control of ET trends by vegetation processes, but little evidence for control by other factors. Interannual variability in ET was overwhelmingly dominated by precipitation, which accounted on average for 52-54% of the variation in wet basins (ranging from 0 to 99%) and 84-85% in dry basins (ranging from 13 to 100%). Precipitation accounted for 39-42% of ET trends in wet basins and 69-79% in dry basins. Cropland expansion increased ET in dry basins. Net atmospheric CO2 effects on transpiration, estimated using the Land-surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) model, did not contribute to observed trends in ET because declining stomatal conductance was counteracted by slightly but significantly increasing foliage cover.

Impacts of Interannual Variability in Biogenic VOC Emissions near Transitional Ozone Production Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geddes, J.

2017-12-01

Due to successful NOx emission controls, summertime ozone production chemistry in urban areas across North America is transitioning from VOC-limited to increasingly NOx-limited. In some regions where ozone production sensitivity is in transition, interannual variability in surrounding biogenic VOC emissions could drive fluctuations in the prevailing chemical regime and modify the impact of anthropogenic emission changes. I use satellite observations of HCHO and NO2 column density, along with a long-term simulation of atmospheric chemistry, to investigate the impact of interannual variability in biogenic isoprene sources near large metro areas. Peak emissions of isoprene in the model can vary by up to 20-60% in any given year compared to the long term mean, and this variability drives the majority of the variability in simulated local HCHO:NO2 ratios (a common proxy for ozone production sensitivity). The satellite observations confirm increasingly NOx-limited chemical regimes with large interannual variability. In several instances, the model and satellite observations suggest that variability in biogenic isoprene emissions could shift summertime ozone production from generally VOC- to generally NOx- sensitive (or vice versa). This would have implications for predicting the air quality impacts of anthropogenic emission changes in any given year, and suggests that drivers of biogenic emissions need to be well understood.

The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Zhenong; Zhuang, Qianlai; Wang, Jiali

Heat and drought stresses are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Here we present a study that quantified the current and future yield responses of US rainfed maize and soybean to climate extremes, and for the first time characterized spatial shifts in the relative importance of temperature, heat and drought stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), driven by the high-resolution (12 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model downscaled futuremore » climate scenarios at two time slices (1995-2005 and 2085-2094). Our results show that climatic yield gaps and interannual variability are greater in the core production area than in the remaining US by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of change is highly dependent on the current climate sensitivity and vulnerability. Elevated CO2 partially offsets the climatic yield gaps and reduces interannual yield variability, and effect is more prominent in soybean than in maize. We demonstrate that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize and soybean production, although its dominant role gradually gives way to other impacts of heat extremes. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stressors are characterized by increases in the concurrent stress, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering drought and extreme heat simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management.« less

Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models for their response to climate variability and to CO2 trends.

PubMed

Piao, Shilong; Sitch, Stephen; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Peylin, Philippe; Wang, Xuhui; Ahlström, Anders; Anav, Alessandro; Canadell, Josep G; Cong, Nan; Huntingford, Chris; Jung, Martin; Levis, Sam; Levy, Peter E; Li, Junsheng; Lin, Xin; Lomas, Mark R; Lu, Meng; Luo, Yiqi; Ma, Yuecun; Myneni, Ranga B; Poulter, Ben; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Tao; Viovy, Nicolas; Zaehle, Soenke; Zeng, Ning

2013-07-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate 10 process-based terrestrial biosphere models that were used for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is compared with flux-tower-based estimates by Jung et al. [Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011) G00J07] (JU11). The net primary productivity (NPP) apparent sensitivity to climate variability and atmospheric CO2 trends is diagnosed from each model output, using statistical functions. The temperature sensitivity is compared against ecosystem field warming experiments results. The CO2 sensitivity of NPP is compared to the results from four Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The simulated global net biome productivity (NBP) is compared with the residual land sink (RLS) of the global carbon budget from Friedlingstein et al. [Nature Geoscience 3 (2010) 811] (FR10). We found that models produce a higher GPP (133 ± 15 Pg C yr(-1) ) than JU11 (118 ± 6 Pg C yr(-1) ). In response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, modeled NPP increases on average by 16% (5-20%) per 100 ppm, a slightly larger apparent sensitivity of NPP to CO2 than that measured at the FACE experiment locations (13% per 100 ppm). Global NBP differs markedly among individual models, although the mean value of 2.0 ± 0.8 Pg C yr(-1) is remarkably close to the mean value of RLS (2.1 ± 1.2 Pg C yr(-1) ). The interannual variability in modeled NBP is significantly correlated with that of RLS for the period 1980-2009. Both model-to-model and interannual variation in model GPP is larger than that in model NBP due to the strong coupling causing a positive correlation between ecosystem respiration and GPP in the model. The average linear regression slope of global NBP vs. temperature across the 10 models is -3.0 ± 1.5 Pg C yr(-1) °C(-1) , within the uncertainty of what derived from RLS (-3.9 ± 1.1 Pg C yr(-1) °C(-1) ). However, 9 of 10 models overestimate the regression slope of NBP vs. precipitation, compared with the slope of the observed RLS vs. precipitation. With most models lacking processes that control GPP and NBP in addition to CO2 and climate, the agreement between modeled and observation-based GPP and NBP can be fortuitous. Carbon-nitrogen interactions (only separable in one model) significantly influence the simulated response of carbon cycle to temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration, suggesting that nutrients limitations should be included in the next generation of terrestrial biosphere models. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Climatic response of annual tree-rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ageev, Boris G.; Gruzdev, Aleksandr N.; Ponomarev, Yurii N.; Sapozhnikova, Valeria A.

2014-11-01

Extensive literature devoted to investigations into the influence of environmental conditions on the plant respiration and respiration rate. It is generally accepted that the respired CO2 generated in a stem completely diffuses into the atmosphere. Results obtained from explorations into the CO2 content in disc tree rings by the method proposed in this work shows that a major part of CO2 remains in tree stems and exhibits inter-annual variability. Different methods are used to describe of CO2 and H2O distributions in disc tree rings. The relation of CO2 and H2O variations in a Siberian stone pine disc to meteorological parameters are analyzed with use of wavelet, spectral and cross-spectral techniques. According to a multiple linear regression model, the time evolution of the width of Siberian stone pine rings can be partly explained by a combined influence of air temperature, precipitation, cloudiness and solar activity. Conclusions are made regarding the response of the CO2 and H2O content in coniferous tree disc rings to various climatic factors. Suggested method of CO2, (CO2+H2O) detection can be used for studying of a stem respiration in ecological risk areas.

Seasonal and interannual variations of carbon exchange over a rice-wheat rotation system on the North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chen; Li, Dan; Gao, Zhiqiu; Tang, Jianwu; Guo, Xiaofeng; Wang, Linlin; Wan, Bingcheng

2015-10-01

Rice-wheat (R-W) rotation systems are ubiquitous in South and East Asia, and play an important role in modulating the carbon cycle and climate. Long-term, continuous flux measurements help in better understanding the seasonal and interannual variation of the carbon budget over R-W rotation systems. In this study, measurements of CO2 fluxes and meteorological variables over an R-W rotation system on the North China Plain from 2007 to 2010 were analyzed. To analyze the abiotic factors regulating Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), NEE was partitioned into gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration. Nighttime NEE or ecosystem respiration was controlled primarily by soil temperature, while daytime NEE was mainly determined by photosythetically active radiation (PAR). The responses of nighttime NEE to soil temperature and daytime NEE to light were closely associated with crop development and photosynthetic activity, respectively. Moreover, the interannual variation in GPP and NEE mainly depended on precipitation and PAR. Overall, NEE was negative on the annual scale and the rotation system behaved as a carbon sink of 982 g C m-2 per year over the three years. The winter wheat field took up more CO2 than the rice paddy during the longer growing season, while the daily NEE for wheat and rice were -2.35 and -3.96 g C m-2, respectively. After the grain harvest was subtracted from the NEE, the winter wheat field became a moderately strong carbon sink of 251-334 g C m-2 per season, whereas the rice paddy switched to a weak carbon sink of 107-132 per season.

Interannual variability of carbon monoxide emission estimates over South America from 2006 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hooghiemstra, P. B.; Krol, M. C.; van Leeuwen, T. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; Novelli, P. C.; Deeter, M. N.; Aben, I.; Röckmann, T.

2012-08-01

We present the first inverse modeling study to estimate CO emissions constrained by both surface and satellite observations. Our 4D-Var system assimilates National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) Global Monitoring Division (GMD) surface and Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite observations jointly by fitting a bias correction scheme. This approach leads to the identification of a positive bias of maximum 5 ppb in MOPITT column-averaged CO mixing ratios in the remote Southern Hemisphere (SH). The 4D-Var system is used to estimate CO emissions over South America in the period 2006-2010 and to analyze the interannual variability (IAV) of these emissions. We infer robust, high spatial resolution CO emission estimates that show slightly smaller IAV due to fires compared to the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) prior emissions. South American dry season (August and September) biomass burning emission estimates amount to 60, 92, 42, 16 and 93 Tg CO/yr for 2006 to 2010, respectively. Moreover, CO emissions probably associated with pre-harvest burning of sugar cane plantations in São Paulo state are underestimated in current inventories by 50-100%. We conclude that climatic conditions (such as the widespread drought in 2010) seem the most likely cause for the IAV in biomass burning CO emissions. However, socio-economic factors (such as the growing global demand for soy, beef and sugar cane ethanol) and associated deforestation fires, are also likely as drivers for the IAV of CO emissions, but are difficult to link directly to CO emissions.

Multi-year application of WRF-CAM5 over East Asia-Part II: Interannual variability, trend analysis, and aerosol indirect effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yang; Wang, Kai; He, Jian

2017-09-01

Following a comprehensive evaluation of WRF-CAM5 in Part I, Part II describes analyses of interannual variability, multi-year variation trends, and the direct, indirect, and total effects of anthropogenic aerosols. The interannual variations of chemical column and surface concentrations, and ozone (O3)/particulate matter (PM) indicators are strongly correlated to anthropogenic emission changes. Despite model biases, the model captures well the observed interannual variations of temperature at 2-m, cloud fraction, shortwave cloud forcing, downwelling shortwave radiation, cloud droplet number concentration, column O3, and column formaldehyde (HCHO) for the whole domain. While the model reproduces the volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited regimes of O3 chemistry at sites in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and from the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET) and the degree of sulfate neutralization at the EANET sites, it has limited capability in capturing the interannual variations of the ratio of O3 and nitrogen dioxide (O3/NO2) and PM chemical regime indicators, due to uncertainties in the emissions of precursors for O3 and secondary PM, the model assumption for ammonium bisulfate (NH4HSO4) as well as lack of gas/particle partitioning of total ammonia and total nitrate. While the variation trends in multi-year periods in aerosol optical depth and column concentrations of carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and NO2 are mainly caused by anthropogenic emissions, those of major meteorological and cloud variables partly reflect feedbacks of chemistry to meteorological variables. The impacts of anthropogenic aerosol indirect effects either dominate or play an important role in the aerosol total effects for most cloud and chemical predictions, whereas anthropogenic aerosol direct effects influence most meteorological and radiation variables. The direct, indirect, and total effects of anthropogenic aerosols exhibit a strong interannual variability in 2001, 2006, and 2011.

Temporal Variability of North Atlantic Carbon Fluxes and their Sensitivity to the Meridional Overturning Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, P.; McDonagh, E.; Sanders, R.; King, B.; Watson, A. J.; Schuster, U.; Henson, S.

2016-02-01

The North Atlantic plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle both as a region of substantial air-sea carbon dioxide uptake and as a location for the transfer of CO2 to depth on climatically-important timescales. While the magnitude of surface fluxes is relatively well constrained, our understanding of the processes that drive variability in ocean-atmosphere exchange and subsequent subsurface carbon accumulation is not as well defined. Here we present observation-derived high-resolution estimates of short-term 10-day meridional ocean carbon transport variability across the subtropical North Atlantic for 2004-2012. Substantial seasonal, sub-annual and interannual transport variability is observed that is highly sensitive to the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. While the recently identified multi-year decrease in AMOC strength similarly impacts carbon transports, its full effect is masked by the northwards transport of increasing surface CO2 levels. A 30% slowdown in the meridional circulation in 2009-2010 and the anomalous effects it had on the transport, storage and divergence of heat and freshwater in the subtropical and subpolar gyres and local wind regimes are investigated for their impact on local air-sea CO2 fluxes. Temperature and salt content anomalies identified in each gyre are found to drive (subtropics) or hinder (subpolar) additional carbon uptake from the atmosphere by affecting the physical solubility pump for CO2. Additionally their simultaneous effect on mixed layer depth and the vertical supply of nutrients to the surface is shown to magnify the CO2 flux observed by driving anomalous primary production rates.

Sensitivity of the interannual variability of mineral aerosol simulations to meteorological forcing dataset

DOE PAGES

Smith, Molly B.; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Albani, Samuel; ...

2017-03-07

Interannual variability in desert dust is widely observed and simulated, yet the sensitivity of these desert dust simulations to a particular meteorological dataset, as well as a particular model construction, is not well known. Here we use version 4 of the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM4) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to simulate dust forced by three different reanalysis meteorological datasets for the period 1990–2005. We then contrast the results of these simulations with dust simulated using online winds dynamically generated from sea surface temperatures, as well as with simulations conducted using other modeling frameworks but the same meteorological forcings, in order tomore » determine the sensitivity of climate model output to the specific reanalysis dataset used. For the seven cases considered in our study, the different model configurations are able to simulate the annual mean of the global dust cycle, seasonality and interannual variability approximately equally well (or poorly) at the limited observational sites available. Altogether, aerosol dust-source strength has remained fairly constant during the time period from 1990 to 2005, although there is strong seasonal and some interannual variability simulated in the models and seen in the observations over this time period. Model interannual variability comparisons to observations, as well as comparisons between models, suggest that interannual variability in dust is still difficult to simulate accurately, with averaged correlation coefficients of 0.1 to 0.6. Because of the large variability, at least 1 year of observations at most sites are needed to correctly observe the mean, but in some regions, particularly the remote oceans of the Southern Hemisphere, where interannual variability may be larger than in the Northern Hemisphere, 2–3 years of data are likely to be needed.« less

Inter-annual changes in detritus-based food chains can enhance plant growth response to elevated atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Hines, Jes; Eisenhauer, Nico; Drake, Bert G

2015-12-01

Elevated atmospheric CO2 generally enhances plant growth, but the magnitude of the effects depend, in part, on nutrient availability and plant photosynthetic pathway. Due to their pivotal role in nutrient cycling, changes in abundance of detritivores could influence the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on essential ecosystem processes, such as decomposition and primary production. We conducted a field survey and a microcosm experiment to test the influence of changes in detritus-based food chains on litter mass loss and plant growth response to elevated atmospheric CO2 using two wetland plants: a C3 sedge (Scirpus olneyi) and a C4 grass (Spartina patens). Our field study revealed that organism's sensitivity to climate increased with trophic level resulting in strong inter-annual variation in detritus-based food chain length. Our microcosm experiment demonstrated that increased detritivore abundance could not only enhance decomposition rates, but also enhance plant growth of S. olneyi in elevated atmospheric CO2 conditions. In contrast, we found no evidence that changes in the detritus-based food chains influenced the growth of S. patens. Considered together, these results emphasize the importance of approaches that unite traditionally subdivided food web compartments and plant physiological processes to understand inter-annual variation in plant production response to elevated atmospheric CO2. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Temporal comparison of global inventories of CO2 emissions from biomass burning during 2002-2011 derived from remotely sensed data.

PubMed

Shi, Yusheng; Matsunaga, Tsuneo

2017-07-01

Biomass burning is a large important source of greenhouse gases and atmospheric aerosols, and can contribute greatly to the temporal variations of CO 2 emissions at regional and global scales. In this study, we compared four globally gridded CO 2 emission inventories from biomass burning during the period of 2002-2011, highlighting the similarities and differences in seasonality and interannual variability of the CO 2 emissions both at regional and global scales. The four datasets included Global Fire Emissions Database 4s with small fires (GFED4s), Global Fire Assimilation System 1.0 (GFAS1.0), Fire INventory from NCAR 1.0 (FINN1.0), and Global Inventory for Chemistry-Climate studies-GFED4s (G-G). The results showed that in general, the four inventories presented consistent temporal trend but with large differences as well. Globally, CO 2 emissions of GFED4s, GFAS1.0, and G-G all peaked in August with the exception in FINN1.0, which recorded another peak in annual March. The interannual trend of all datasets displayed an overall decrease in CO 2 emissions during 2002-2011, except for the inconsistent FINN1.0, which showed a tendency to increase during the considered period. Meanwhile, GFED4s and GFAS1.0 noted consistent agreement from 2002 to 2011 at both global (R 2  > 0.8) and continental levels (R 2  > 0.7). FINN1.0 was found to have the poorest temporal correlations with the other three inventories globally (R 2  < 0.6). The lower estimation in savanna CO 2 emissions and higher calculation in cropland CO 2 emissions by FINN1.0 from 2002 to 2011 was the primary reason for the temporal differences of the four inventories. Besides, the contributions of the three land covers (forest, savanna, and cropland) on CO 2 emissions in each region varied greatly within the year (>80%) but showed small variations through the years (<40%).

Interannual SST Variability in the Japan/East Sea and Relationship with Environmental Variables

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

Soya Strait (SS), and Tartar Strait (TTS). (b) Regional geography. Interannual SST Variability in the Japan/East Sea 117 200 interruptions due to...caused by differential seasonal forcing. During the summer strong solar radiation penetrates into the entire Longitude(oE) La tit ud e( o N ) 50 50 100...1988.6 1988.8 1989 1989.2 1989.4 1989.6 1989.8 1990 1990.2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Time(year) Te m pe ra tu re (o C ) Longitude(oE) La tit ud e( o N ) (a) 5

Underestimated interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Yongjian; Song, Lianchun; Xiao, Ying; Du, Liangmin

2018-02-01

This study evaluates the performance of climate models in simulating the climatological mean and interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall (EASR) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared to the observation, the interannual variability of EASR during 1979-2005 is underestimated by the CMIP5 with a range of 0.86 16.08%. Based on bias correction of CMIP5 simulations with historical data, the reliability of future projections will be enhanced. The corrected EASR under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 increases by 5.6 and 7.5% during 2081-2100 relative to the baseline of 1986-2005, respectively. After correction, the areas with both negative and positive anomalies decrease, which are mainly located in the South China Sea and central China, and southern China and west of the Philippines, separately. In comparison to the baseline, the interannual variability of EASR increases by 20.8% under RCP4.5 but 26.2% under RCP8.5 in 2006-2100, which is underestimated by 10.7 and 11.1% under both RCPs in the original CMIP5 simulation. Compared with the mean precipitation, the interannual variability of EASR is notably larger under global warming. Thus, the probabilities of floods and droughts may increase in the future.

Microwave radiometer observations of interannual water vapor variability and vertical structure over a tropical station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renju, R.; Suresh Raju, C.; Mathew, Nizy; Antony, Tinu; Krishna Moorthy, K.

2015-05-01

The intraseasonal and interannual characteristics and the vertical distribution of atmospheric water vapor from the tropical coastal station Thiruvananthapuram (TVM) located in the southwestern region of the Indian Peninsula are examined from continuous multiyear, multifrequency microwave radiometer profiler (MRP) measurements. The accuracy of MRP for precipitable water vapor (PWV) estimation, particularly during a prolonged monsoon period, has been demonstrated by comparing with the PWV derived from collocated GPS measurements based on regression model between PWV and GPS wet delay component which has been developed for TVM station. Large diurnal and intraseasonal variations of PWV are observed during winter and premonsoon seasons. There is large interannual PWV variability during premonsoon, owing to frequent local convection and summer thunderstorms. During monsoon period, low interannual PWV variability is attributed to the persistent wind from the ocean which brings moisture to this coastal station. However, significant interannual humidity variability is seen at 2 to 6 km altitude, which is linked to the monsoon strength over the station. Prior to monsoon onset over the station, the specific humidity increases up to 5-10 g/kg in the altitude region above 5 km and remains consistently so throughout the active spells.

Analysis of the Relationship Between Climate and NDVI Variability at Global Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeng, Fan-Wei; Collatz, G. James; Pinzon, Jorge; Ivanoff, Alvaro

2011-01-01

interannual variability in modeled (CASA) C flux is in part caused by interannual variability in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR). This study confirms a mechanism producing variability in modeled NPP: -- NDVI (FPAR) interannual variability is strongly driven by climate; -- The climate driven variability in NDVI (FPAR) can lead to much larger fluctuation in NPP vs. the NPP computed from FPAR climatology

Improving uncertainty estimates: Inter-annual variability in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pullinger, D.; Zhang, M.; Hill, N.; Crutchley, T.

2017-11-01

This paper addresses the uncertainty associated with inter-annual variability used within wind resource assessments for Ireland in order to more accurately represent the uncertainties within wind resource and energy yield assessments. The study was undertaken using a total of 16 ground stations (Met Eireann) and corresponding reanalysis datasets to provide an update to previous work on this topic undertaken nearly 20 years ago. The results of the work demonstrate that the previously reported 5.4% of wind speed inter-annual variability is considered to be appropriate, guidance is given on how to provide a robust assessment of IAV using available sources of data including ground stations, MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim.

Seasonal-to-Interannual Precipitation Variability and Predictability in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Suarez, M. J.; Heiser, M.

1998-01-01

In an earlier GCM study, we showed that interactive land surface processes generally contribute more to continental precipitation variance than do variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A new study extends this result through an analysis of 16-member ensembles of multi-decade GCM simulations. We can now show that in many regions, although land processes determine the amplitude of the interannual precipitation anomalies, variable SSTs nevertheless control their timing. The GCM data can be processed into indices that describe geographical variations in (1) the potential for seasonal-to-interannual prediction, and (2) the extent to which the predictability relies on the proper representation of land-atmosphere feedback.

Soil Water Balance and Vegetation Dynamics in two Water-limited Mediterranean Ecosystem on Sardinia under past and future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corona, R.; Montaldo, N.; Albertson, J. D.

2016-12-01

Water limited conditions strongly impacts soil and vegetation dynamics in Mediterranean regions, which are commonly heterogeneous ecosystems, characterized by inter-annual rainfall variability, topography variability and contrasting plant functional types (PFTs) competing for water use. Historical human influences (e.g., deforestation, urbanization) further altered these ecosystems. Sardinia island is a representative region of Mediterranean ecosystems. It is low urbanized except some plan areas close to the main cities where main agricultural activities are concentrated. Two contrasting case study sites are within the Flumendosa river basin (1700 km2). The first site is a typical grassland on an alluvial plan valley (soil depth > 2m) while the second is a patchy mixture of Mediterranean vegetation species (mainly wild olive trees and C3 herbaceous) that grow in a soil bounded from below by a rocky layer of basalt, partially fractured (soil depth 15 - 40 cm). In both sites land-surface fluxes and CO2 fluxes are estimated by the eddy correlation technique while soil moisture was continuously estimated with water content reflectometers, and periodically leaf area index (LAI) was estimated. The following objectives are addressed:1) pointing out the dynamics of land surface fluxes, soil moisture, CO2 and vegetation cover for two contrasting water-limited ecosystems; 2) assess the impact of the soil depth and type on the CO2 and water balance dynamics; 3) evaluate the impact of past and future climate change scenarios on the two contrasting ecosystems. For reaching the objectives an ecohydrologic model that couples a vegetation dynamic model (VDM), and a 3-component (bare soil, grass and woody vegetation) land surface model (LSM) has been used. Historical meteorological data are available from 1922 and hydro-meteorological scenarios are then generated using a weather generator. The VDM-LSM model predict soil water balance and vegetation dynamics for the generated hydrometeorological scenarios in the two contrasting ecosystems. Results demonstrate that vegetation dynamics are influenced by the inter-annual variability of atmospheric forcing, with vegetation density changing significantly according to seasonal rainfall amount. At the same time the vegetation dynamics affect the soil water balance.

Calculating surface ocean pCO2 from biogeochemical Argo floats equipped with pH: An uncertainty analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, N. L.; Juranek, L. W.; Feely, R. A.; Johnson, K. S.; Sarmiento, J. L.; Talley, L. D.; Dickson, A. G.; Gray, A. R.; Wanninkhof, R.; Russell, J. L.; Riser, S. C.; Takeshita, Y.

2017-03-01

More than 74 biogeochemical profiling floats that measure water column pH, oxygen, nitrate, fluorescence, and backscattering at 10 day intervals have been deployed throughout the Southern Ocean. Calculating the surface ocean partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2sw) from float pH has uncertainty contributions from the pH sensor, the alkalinity estimate, and carbonate system equilibrium constants, resulting in a relative standard uncertainty in pCO2sw of 2.7% (or 11 µatm at pCO2sw of 400 µatm). The calculated pCO2sw from several floats spanning a range of oceanographic regimes are compared to existing climatologies. In some locations, such as the subantarctic zone, the float data closely match the climatologies, but in the polar Antarctic zone significantly higher pCO2sw are calculated in the wintertime implying a greater air-sea CO2 efflux estimate. Our results based on four representative floats suggest that despite their uncertainty relative to direct measurements, the float data can be used to improve estimates for air-sea carbon flux, as well as to increase knowledge of spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability in this flux.

Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes

Treesearch

Jakob Zscheischler; Simone Fatichi; Sebastian Wolf; Peter D. Blanken; Gil Bohrer; Ken Clark; Ankur R. Desai; David Hollinger; Trevor Keenan; Kimberly A. Novick; Sonia I. Seneviratne

2016-01-01

Ecosystem models often perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes, resulting in considerable uncertainty when estimating the land-carbon sink. While many aggregated variables (growing season length, seasonal precipitation, or temperature) have been suggested as predictors for interannual variability in carbon fluxes, their...

Landscape Evolution and the Reincarnation of the Residual CO2 Ice Cap of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrne, S.; Zuber, M.

2006-12-01

Observations of the southern residual CO2 cap of Mars reveal a wide range of landforms including flat-floored quasi-circular pits with steep walls (dubbed Swiss-cheese features). Interannual comparisons show that these depressions are expanding laterally at rates of ~2m/yr to ~4m/yr, prompting suggestions of climate change. The residual CO2 ice cap is up to 10m thick and underlain by an involatile basement, it also contains layers roughly 2m thick representing different accumulation episodes in the recent past. Changes in the appearance of the residual ice between the Mariner 9 and Viking missions indicate that the top-most layer was deposited in that time-frame, soon after the global dust storm of 1971. The spatial density of the Swiss-cheese features, and the rate at which they expand, mean that it is unlikely that any part of the residual ice cap is older than a few centuries. Given this, we may ask: how can there be a residual cap present today for us to observe? To answer this and other questions we have developed a model to examine the evolution of a CO2 ice landscape. This model reproduces the morphologies and expansion rates seen in the actual residual CO2 ice cap. Our model results indicate that the fate of CO2 ice surfaces is controlled by their surface roughness. Surface roughness always increases with time, which results in an unstable situation. When the surface roughness exceeds a critical point small pits can begin to develop. The walls of these pits rapidly steepen and begin retreating which enlarges and deepens the pit. This situation always occurs even if the surface of the CO2 slab has a high enough albedo to have a net mass gain each year. Once these pits begin expanding they quickly erode the entire ice slab. When the underlying non-CO2 material is exposed, it will not frost over again if Mars were to repeat like clockwork every year. We conclude that interannual climatic variability is actually a requirement for the continued existence of a residual CO2 ice cap. We invoke unusual depositional episodes (which have a surface smoothing effect) after which the cap can begin accumulating mass and growing in thickness again. This continues until the surface roughness again exceeds a stable state and the process repeats itself. The thickness of the residual cap therefore oscillates on timescales of centuries. The total cap volume may also be affected by variations in residual cap extent. The cap is not 'stable' in the usual sense of the word, but instead is constantly being destroyed and recreated. Evidence suggests that these rejuvenating depositional events are linked to global dust storms. The 10m thick stratigraphic record thus provides a unique measure of interannual variability of the current climate, the expanding Swiss-cheese features do not indicate secular climate change, but instead are just part of the larger life-cycle of this ice deposit. We will report on this surface modeling which reproduces other morphologies within the residual cap and present a historical model based on combining our modeling with the feature sizes and ablation rates found within the present residual ice cap.

Estimating lake-atmosphere CO2 exchange

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, D.E.; Striegl, Robert G.; Stannard, D.I.; Michmerhuizen, C.M.; McConnaughey, T.A.; LaBaugh, J.W.

1999-01-01

Lake-atmosphere CO2 flux was directly measured above a small, woodland lake using the eddy covariance technique and compared with fluxes deduced from changes in measured lake-water CO2 storage and with flux predictions from boundary-layer and surface-renewal models. Over a 3-yr period, lake-atmosphere exchanges of CO2 were measured over 5 weeks in spring, summer, and fall. Observed springtime CO2 efflux was large (2.3-2.7 ??mol m-2 s-1) immediately after lake-thaw. That efflux decreased exponentially with time to less than 0.2 ??mol m-2 s-1 within 2 weeks. Substantial interannual variability was found in the magnitudes of springtime efflux, surface water CO2 concentrations, lake CO2 storage, and meteorological conditions. Summertime measurements show a weak diurnal trend with a small average downward flux (-0.17 ??mol m-2 s-1) to the lake's surface, while late fall flux was trendless and smaller (-0.0021 ??mol m-2 s-1). Large springtime efflux afforded an opportunity to make direct measurement of lake-atmosphere fluxes well above the detection limits of eddy covariance instruments, facilitating the testing of different gas flux methodologies and air-water gas-transfer models. Although there was an overall agreement in fluxes determined by eddy covariance and those calculated from lake-water storage change in CO2, agreement was inconsistent between eddy covariance flux measurements and fluxes predicted by boundary-layer and surface-renewal models. Comparison of measured and modeled transfer velocities for CO2, along with measured and modeled cumulative CO2 flux, indicates that in most instances the surface-renewal model underpredicts actual flux. Greater underestimates were found with comparisons involving homogeneous boundary-layer models. No physical mechanism responsible for the inconsistencies was identified by analyzing coincidentally measured environmental variables.

Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Llovel, W.; Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Ablain, M.; Beckley, B.

2011-01-01

On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

Low-frequency variability of the Atlantic MOC in the eddying regime : the intrinsic component.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregorio, S.; Penduff, T.; Barnier, B.; Molines, J.-M.; Le Sommer, J.

2012-04-01

A 327-year 1/4° global ocean/sea-ice simulation has been produced by the DRAKKAR ocean modeling consortium. This simulation is forced by a repeated seasonal atmospheric forcing but nevertheless exhibits a substantial low-frequency variability (at interannual and longer timescales), which is therefore of intrinsic origin. This nonlinearly-generated intrinsic variability is almost absent from the coarse-resolution (2°) version of this simulation. Comparing the 1/4° simulation with its fully-forced counterpart, Penduff et al. (2011) have shown that the low-frequency variability of local sea-level is largely generated by the ocean itself in eddying areas, rather than directly forced by the atmosphere. Using the same simulations, the present study quantifies the imprint of the intrinsic low-frequency variability on the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) at interannual-to-decadal timescales in the Atlantic. We first compare the intrinsic and atmospherically-forced interannual variances of the Atlantic MOC calculated in geopotential coordinates. This analysis reveals substantial sources of intrinsic MOC variability in the South Atlantic (driven by the Agulhas mesoscale activity according to Biastoch et al. (2008)), but also in the North Atlantic. We extend our investigation to the MOC calculated in isopycnal coordinates, and identify regions in the basin where the water mass transformation exhibits low-frequency intrinsic variability. In this eddy-permitting regime, intrinsic processes are shown to generate about half the total (geopotential and isopycnal) MOC interannual variance in certain key regions of the Atlantic. This intrinsic variability is absent from 2° simulations. Penduff, T., Juza, M., Barnier, B., Zika, J., Dewar, W.K., Treguier, A.-M., Molines, J.-M., Audiffren, N., 2011: Sea-level expression of intrinsic and forced ocean variabilities at interannual time scales. J. Climate, 24, 5652-5670. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00077.1. Biastoch, A., Böning, C. W., Lutjeharms, J. R. E., 2008: Agulhas leakage dynamics affects decadal variability in Atlantic overturning circulation. Nature, 456, 489-492, doi: 10.1038/nature07426.

Interannual variability of Indian Ocean subtropical mode water subduction rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jie; Lan, Jian

2017-06-01

The interannual variation of Indian Ocean subtropical mode water (IOSTMW) subduction rate in the Southwest Indian Ocean from 1980 to 2007 is investigated in this paper based on Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) outputs. Climatology of subduction rate exceeds 75 m/year in the IOSTMW formation area. The renewal time of permanent pycnocline water mass based on the subduction rate is calculated for each density class: 3-6 years for IOSTMW (25.8 < σ θ < 26.2 kg m-3). Subduction rate in the Southwest Indian Ocean subtropical gyre exhibits a great year-to-year variability. This interannual variations of the IOSTMW subduction rate is primarily dominated by the lateral induction term, associated with the interannual variations of strong meridional gradient of winter mixed layer depth (MLD). The slope of the mixed layer depth in the mode water is closely linked to the large variations of deep late winter MLD in the mid-latitudes and negligible variations of shallow winter MLD in lower latitudes. It is further identified that the interannual variation of late winter MLD in this area is largely controlled by the latent and sensible heat flux components. The water volume of the permanent pycnocline in the IOSTMW distribution area is also found to show a significant interannual variability, and it is well correlated with the interannual variation of subduction rate.

The Distribution of Carbon Monoxide in the GOCART Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fan, Xiaobiao; Chin, Mian; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Carbon monoxide (CO) is an important trace gas because it is a significant source of tropospheric Ozone (O3) as well as a major sink for atmospheric hydroxyl radical (OH). The distribution of CO is set by a balance between the emissions, transport, and chemical processes in the atmosphere. The Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model is used to simulate the atmospheric distribution of CO. The GOCART model is driven by the assimilated meteorological data from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) in an off-line mode. We study the distribution of CO on three time scales: (1) day to day fluctuation produced by the synoptic waves; (2) seasonal changes due to the annual cycle of CO sources and sinks; and (3) interannual variability induced by dynamics. Comparison of model results with ground based and remote sensing measurements will also be presented.

AVHRR channel selection for land cover classification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maxwell, S.K.; Hoffer, R.M.; Chapman, P.L.

2002-01-01

Mapping land cover of large regions often requires processing of satellite images collected from several time periods at many spectral wavelength channels. However, manipulating and processing large amounts of image data increases the complexity and time, and hence the cost, that it takes to produce a land cover map. Very few studies have evaluated the importance of individual Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) channels for discriminating cover types, especially the thermal channels (channels 3, 4 and 5). Studies rarely perform a multi-year analysis to determine the impact of inter-annual variability on the classification results. We evaluated 5 years of AVHRR data using combinations of the original AVHRR spectral channels (1-5) to determine which channels are most important for cover type discrimination, yet stabilize inter-annual variability. Particular attention was placed on the channels in the thermal portion of the spectrum. Fourteen cover types over the entire state of Colorado were evaluated using a supervised classification approach on all two-, three-, four- and five-channel combinations for seven AVHRR biweekly composite datasets covering the entire growing season for each of 5 years. Results show that all three of the major portions of the electromagnetic spectrum represented by the AVHRR sensor are required to discriminate cover types effectively and stabilize inter-annual variability. Of the two-channel combinations, channels 1 (red visible) and 2 (near-infrared) had, by far, the highest average overall accuracy (72.2%), yet the inter-annual classification accuracies were highly variable. Including a thermal channel (channel 4) significantly increased the average overall classification accuracy by 5.5% and stabilized interannual variability. Each of the thermal channels gave similar classification accuracies; however, because of the problems in consistently interpreting channel 3 data, either channel 4 or 5 was found to be a more appropriate choice. Substituting the thermal channel with a single elevation layer resulted in equivalent classification accuracies and inter-annual variability.

Towards understanding the variability in biospheric CO2 fluxes: using FTIR spectrometry and a chemical transport model to investigate the sources and sinks of carbonyl sulfide and its link to CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuting; Deutscher, Nicholas M.; Palm, Mathias; Warneke, Thorsten; Notholt, Justus; Baker, Ian; Berry, Joe; Suntharalingam, Parvadha; Jones, Nicholas; Mahieu, Emmanuel; Lejeune, Bernard; Hannigan, James; Conway, Stephanie; Mendonca, Joseph; Strong, Kimberly; Campbell, J. Elliott; Wolf, Adam; Kremser, Stefanie

2016-02-01

Understanding carbon dioxide (CO2) biospheric processes is of great importance because the terrestrial exchange drives the seasonal and interannual variability of CO2 in the atmosphere. Atmospheric inversions based on CO2 concentration measurements alone can only determine net biosphere fluxes, but not differentiate between photosynthesis (uptake) and respiration (production). Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) could provide an important additional constraint: it is also taken up by plants during photosynthesis but not emitted during respiration, and therefore is a potential means to differentiate between these processes. Solar absorption Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR) spectrometry allows for the retrievals of the atmospheric concentrations of both CO2 and OCS from measured solar absorption spectra. Here, we investigate co-located and quasi-simultaneous FTIR measurements of OCS and CO2 performed at five selected sites located in the Northern Hemisphere. These measurements are compared to simulations of OCS and CO2 using a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). The coupled biospheric fluxes of OCS and CO2 from the simple biosphere model (SiB) are used in the study. The CO2 simulation with SiB fluxes agrees with the measurements well, while the OCS simulation reproduced a weaker drawdown than FTIR measurements at selected sites, and a smaller latitudinal gradient in the Northern Hemisphere during growing season when comparing with HIPPO (HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations) data spanning both hemispheres. An offset in the timing of the seasonal cycle minimum between SiB simulation and measurements is also seen. Using OCS as a photosynthesis proxy can help to understand how the biospheric processes are reproduced in models and to further understand the carbon cycle in the real world.

Linking the variability of atmospheric carbon monoxide to climate modes in the Southern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchholz, Rebecca; Monks, Sarah; Hammerling, Dorit; Worden, Helen; Deeter, Merritt; Emmons, Louisa; Edwards, David

2017-04-01

Biomass burning is a major driver of atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) variability in the Southern Hemisphere. The magnitude of emissions, such as CO, from biomass burning is connected to climate through both the availability and dryness of fuel. We investigate the link between CO and climate using satellite measured CO and climate indices. Observations of total column CO from the satellite instrument MOPITT are used to build a record of interannual variability in CO since 2001. Four biomass burning regions in the Southern Hemisphere are explored. Data driven relationships are determined between CO and climate indices for the climate modes: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); the Tropical Southern Atlantic (TSA); and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Stepwise forward and backward regression is used to select the best statistical model from combinations of lagged indices. We find evidence for the importance of first-order interaction terms of the climate modes when explaining CO variability. Implications of the model results are discussed for the Maritime Southeast Asia and Australasia regions. We also draw on the chemistry-climate model CAM-chem to explain the source contribution as well as the relative contributions of emissions and meteorology to CO variability.

West African Monsoon dynamics in idealized simulations: the competitive roles of SST warming and CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaetani, Marco; Flamant, Cyrille; Hourdin, Frederic; Bastin, Sophie; Braconnot, Pascale; Bony, Sandrine

2015-04-01

The West African Monsoon (WAM) is affected by large climate variability at different timescales, from interannual to multidecadal, with strong environmental and socio-economic impacts associated to climate-related rainfall variability, especially in the Sahelian belt. State-of-the-art coupled climate models still show poor ability in correctly simulating the WAM past variability and also a large spread is observed in future climate projections. In this work, the July-to-September (JAS) WAM variability in the period 1979-2008 is studied in AMIP-like simulations (SST-forced) from CMIP5. The individual roles of global SST warming and CO2 concentration increasing are investigated through idealized experiments simulating a 4K warmer SST and a 4x CO2 concentration, respectively. Results show a dry response in Sahel to SST warming, with dryer conditions over western Sahel. On the contrary, wet conditions are observed when CO2 is increased, with the strongest response over central-eastern Sahel. The precipitation changes are associated to modifications in the regional atmospheric circulation: dry (wet) conditions are associated with reduced (increased) convergence in the lower troposphere, a southward (northward) shift of the African Easterly Jet, and a weaker (stronger) Tropical Easterly Jet. The co-variability between global SST and WAM precipitation is also investigated, highlighting a reorganization of the main co-variability modes. Namely, in the 4xCO2 simulation the influence of Tropical Pacific is dominant, while it is reduced in the 4K simulation, which also shows an increased coupling with the eastern Pacific and the Indian Ocean. The above results suggest a competitive action of SST warming and CO2 increasing on the WAM climate variability, with opposite effects on precipitation. The combination of the observed positive and negative response in precipitation, with wet conditions in central-eastern Sahel and dry conditions in western Sahel, is consistent with the future precipitation trends over West Africa resulting from CMIP5 coupled simulations. It is argued that the large spread in CMIP5 future projections may be related to the weight given to SST warming and direct CO2 effect by individual models. The capability of climate models in reproducing the SST-precipitation relationship appears to be crucial in this respect.

Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephan, Claudia Christine; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew G.; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Guo, Liang

2018-05-01

Six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Coupled 2.0 configurations are evaluated against observations and reanalysis data for their ability to simulate the mean state and year-to-year variability of precipitation over China. To analyse the sensitivity to air-sea coupling and horizontal resolution, atmosphere-only and coupled integrations at atmospheric horizontal resolutions of N96, N216 and N512 (corresponding to ˜ 200, 90 and 40 km in the zonal direction at the equator, respectively) are analysed. The mean and interannual variance of seasonal precipitation are too high in all simulations over China but improve with finer resolution and coupling. Empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to simulated and observed precipitation to identify spatial patterns of temporally coherent interannual variability in seasonal precipitation. To connect these patterns to large-scale atmospheric and coupled air-sea processes, atmospheric and oceanic fields are regressed onto the corresponding seasonal mean time series. All simulations reproduce the observed leading pattern of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are the four leading patterns associated with the observed physical mechanisms. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. However, finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. This shows that evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient. The EOT analysis adds knowledge about coherent variability and associated mechanisms.

Variation of atmospheric CO, δ13C, and δ18O at high northern latitude during 2004-2009: Observations and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Keyhong; Wang, Zhihui; Emmons, Louisa K.; Mak, John E.

2015-10-01

Atmospheric CO mixing ratios and stable isotope ratios (δ13C and δ18O) were measured at a high northern latitude site (Westman Islands, Iceland) from January 2004 to March 2010 in order to investigate recent multiyear trends of the sources of atmospheric carbon monoxide in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. During this period, we observed a decrease of about 2% per year in CO mixing ratios with little significant interannual variability. The seasonal cycles for δ13C and δ18O in CO are similar to that in the CO mixing ratio, and there is a pronounced interannual variation in their seasonal extremes occurring in summer and fall, which is driven by changes in the relative contribution of different sources. Some of the sources of CO are anthropogenic in character (e.g., fossil fuel and biofuel combustion and agricultural waste burning), and some are primarily natural (e.g., oxidation atmospheric methane and other hydrocarbons and wildfires), and distinction among the various major sources can, more or less, be distinguished by the stable isotopic composition of CO. We compare our observations with simulations from a 3-D global chemical transport model (MOZART-4, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4). Our results indicate the observed trend of anthropogenic CO emissions is mostly responsible for the observed variation in δ13C and δ18O of CO during 2004-2009. Especially, the δ18O enriched sources such as fossil fuel and biofuel sources are controlling the variation. The modeling results indicate decreasing trends in the fossil fuel and biofuel source contributions at Iceland of -0.61 ± 0.26 ppbv/yr and -0.38 ± 0.10 ppbv/yr, respectively, during the observation period.

Are revised models better models? A skill score assessment of regional interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperber, Kenneth R.; Participating AMIP Modelling Groups

1999-05-01

Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon windshear is examined in integrations performed under the experimental design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indices considered, the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulating the observed interannual variability. Interannual variability of all-India rainfall is better simulated by models that have a more realistic rainfall climatology in the vicinity of India, indicating the beneficial effect of reducing systematic model error.

Are revised models better models? A skill score assessment of regional interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Participating AMIP Modelling Groups,; Sperber, Kenneth R.

Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon windshear is examined in integrations performed under the experimental design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indices considered, the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulating the observed interannual variability. Interannual variability of all-India rainfall is better simulated by models that have a more realistic rainfall climatology in the vicinity of India, indicating the beneficial effect of reducing systematic model error.

Process contributions of Australian ecosystems to interannual variations in the carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haverd, Vanessa; Smith, Benjamin; Trudinger, Cathy

2016-05-01

New evidence is emerging that semi-arid ecosystems dominate interannual variability (IAV) of the global carbon cycle, largely via fluctuating water availability associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Recent evidence from global terrestrial biosphere modelling and satellite-based inversion of atmospheric CO2 point to a large role of Australian ecosystems in global carbon cycle variability, including a large contribution from Australia to the record land sink of 2011. However the specific mechanisms governing this variability, and their bioclimatic distribution within Australia, have not been identified. Here we provide a regional assessment, based on best available observational data, of IAV in the Australian terrestrial carbon cycle and the role of Australia in the record land sink anomaly of 2011. We find that IAV in Australian net carbon uptake is dominated by semi-arid ecosystems in the east of the continent, whereas the 2011 anomaly was more uniformly spread across most of the continent. Further, and in contrast to global modelling results suggesting that IAV in Australian net carbon uptake is amplified by lags between production and decomposition, we find that, at continental scale, annual variations in production are dampened by annual variations in decomposition, with both fluxes responding positively to precipitation anomalies.

Fluxes all of the time? A primer on the temporal representativeness of FLUXNET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Housen; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; John, Ranjeet; Wolf, Sebastian; Reichstein, Markus

2017-02-01

FLUXNET, the global network of eddy covariance flux towers, provides the largest synthesized data set of CO2, H2O, and energy fluxes. To achieve the ultimate goal of providing flux information "everywhere and all of the time," studies have attempted to address the representativeness issue, i.e., whether measurements taken in a set of given locations and measurement periods can be extrapolated to a space- and time-explicit extent (e.g., terrestrial globe, 1982-2013 climatological baseline). This study focuses on the temporal representativeness of FLUXNET and tests whether site-specific measurement periods are sufficient to capture the natural variability of climatological and biological conditions. FLUXNET is unevenly representative across sites in terms of the measurement lengths and potentials of extrapolation in time. Similarity of driver conditions among years generally enables the extrapolation of flux information beyond measurement periods. Yet such extrapolation potentials are further constrained by site-specific variability of driver conditions. Several driver variables such as air temperature, diurnal temperature range, potential evapotranspiration, and normalized difference vegetation index had detectable trends and/or breakpoints within the baseline period, and flux measurements generally covered similar and biased conditions in those drivers. About 38% and 60% of FLUXNET sites adequately sampled the mean conditions and interannual variability of all driver conditions, respectively. For long-record sites (≥15 years) the percentages increased to 59% and 69%, respectively. However, the justification of temporal representativeness should not rely solely on the lengths of measurements. Whenever possible, site-specific consideration (e.g., trend, breakpoint, and interannual variability in drivers) should be taken into account.

Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Trends in the Ocean Carbon Sink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKinley, Galen A.; Fay, Amanda R.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Pilcher, Darren J.

2017-01-01

Since preindustrial times, the ocean has removed from the atmosphere 41% of the carbon emitted by human industrial activities. Despite significant uncertainties, the balance of evidence indicates that the globally integrated rate of ocean carbon uptake is increasing in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the equatorial Pacific dominates interannual variability of the globally integrated sink. Modes of climate variability in high latitudes are correlated with variability in regional carbon sinks, but mechanistic understanding is incomplete. Regional sink variability, combined with sparse sampling, means that the growing oceanic sink cannot yet be directly detected from available surface data. Accurate and precise shipboard observations need to be continued and increasingly complemented with autonomous observations. These data, together with a variety of mechanistic and diagnostic models, are needed for better understanding, long-term monitoring, and future projections of this critical climate regulation service.

How important is interannual variability in the climatic interpretation of moraine sequences?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, E. M.; Laabs, B. J. C.; Plummer, M. A.

2017-12-01

Mountain glaciers respond to both long-term climate and interannual forcing. Anderson et al. (2014) pointed out that kilometer-scale fluctuations in glacier length may result from interannual variability in temperature and precipitation given a "steady" climate with no long-term trends in mean or variability of temperature and precipitation. They cautioned that use of outermost moraines from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as indicators of LGM climate will, because of the role of interannual forcing, result in overestimation of the magnitude of long-term temperature depression and/or precipitation enhancement. Here we assess the implications of these ideas, by examining the effect of interannual variability on glacier length and inferred magnitude of LGM climate change from present under both an assumed steady LGM climate and an LGM climate with low-magnitude, long-period variation in summer temperature and annual precipitation. We employ both the original 1-stage linear glacier model (Roe and O'Neal, 2009) used by Anderson et al. (2014) and a newer 3-stage linear model (Roe and Baker, 2014). We apply the models to two reconstructed LGM glaciers in the Colorado Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Three-stage-model results indicate that, absent long-term variations through a 7500-year-long LGM, interannual variability would result in overestimation of mean LGM temperature depression from the outermost moraine of 0.2-0.6°C. If small long-term cyclic variations of temperature (±0.5°C) and precipitation (±5%) are introduced, the overestimation of LGM temperature depression reduces to less than 0.4°C, and if slightly greater long-term variation (±1.0°C and ±10% precipitation) is introduced, the magnitude of overestimation is 0.3°C or less. Interannual variability may produce a moraine sequence that differs from the sequence that would be expected were glacier length forced only by long-term climate. With small amplitude (±0.5°C and ±5% precipitation) long-term variation, the moraine sequence expected if forced by a combination of interannual variability and long-term climate differs from that expected based on long-term climate forcing alone in 38% of model runs. With the larger amplitude long-term forcing (±1.0°C and ±10% precipitation) this difference occurs in 20% of model runs.

Interannual Variability in the Position and Strength of the East Asian Jet Stream and Its Relation to Large - scale Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Duo; Zhang, Yang; Wu, Qigang

2013-04-01

East Asian Jet Stream (EASJ) is charactered by obvious interannual variability in strength and position (latitude), with wide impacts on East Asian climate in all seasons. In this study, two indices are established to measure the interannual variability in intensity and position of EAJS. Possible causing factors, including both local signals and non-local large-scale circulation, are examined using NCAP-NCAR reanalysis data to investigate their relations with jet variation. Our analysis shows that the relationship between the interannual variations of EASJ and these factors depends on seasons. In the summer, both the intensity and position of EASJ are closely related to the meridional gradient of local surface temperature, but display no apparent relationship with the larg-scale circulation. In cold seasons (autumn, winter and spring), both the local factor and the large-scale circulation, i.e. the Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern (PNA), play important roles in the interannual variability of the jet intensity. The variability in the jet position, however, is more correlated to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), especially in winter. Diagnostic analysis indicates that transient eddy activity plays an important role in connecting the interannual variability of EASJ position with AO.

Testing simulations of intra- and inter-annual variation in the plant production response to elevated CO(2) against measurements from an 11-year FACE experiment on grazed pasture.

PubMed

Li, Frank Yonghong; Newton, Paul C D; Lieffering, Mark

2014-01-01

Ecosystem models play a crucial role in understanding and evaluating the combined impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and changing climate on terrestrial ecosystems. However, we are not aware of any studies where the capacity of models to simulate intra- and inter-annual variation in responses to elevated CO2 has been tested against long-term experimental data. Here we tested how well the ecosystem model APSIM/AgPasture was able to simulate the results from a free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiment on grazed pasture. At this FACE site, during 11 years of CO2 enrichment, a wide range in annual plant production response to CO2 (-6 to +28%) was observed. As well as running the full model, which includes three plant CO2 response functions (plant photosynthesis, nitrogen (N) demand and stomatal conductance), we also tested the influence of these three functions on model predictions. Model/data comparisons showed that: (i) overall the model over-predicted the mean annual plant production response to CO2 (18.5% cf 13.1%) largely because years with small or negative responses to CO2 were not well simulated; (ii) in general seasonal and inter-annual variation in plant production responses to elevated CO2 were well represented by the model; (iii) the observed CO2 enhancement in overall mean legume content was well simulated but year-to-year variation in legume content was poorly captured by the model; (iv) the best fit of the model to the data required all three CO2 response functions to be invoked; (v) using actual legume content and reduced N fixation rate under elevated CO2 in the model provided the best fit to the experimental data. We conclude that in temperate grasslands the N dynamics (particularly the legume content and N fixation activity) play a critical role in pasture production responses to elevated CO2 , and are processes for model improvement. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatiotemporal patterns of evapotranspiration along the North American east coast as influenced by multiple environmental changes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Qichun; Tian, Hanqin; Li, Xia

The North American east coast has experienced significant land-use and climate changes since the beginning of the 20th century. In this study, using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model 2.0 driven by time-series input data of land use, climate and atmospheric CO 2, we examined how these driving forces have affected the spatiotemporal trends and variability of evapotranspiration (ET) in this region during 1901–2008. Annual ET in the North American east coast during this period was 648.3 ± 38.6 mm/year and demonstrated an increasing trend. Factorial model simulations indicated that climate variability explained 76% of the inter-annual ET variability. Although land-usemore » change only explained 16% of the ET temporal variability, afforestation induced the upward trend of ET and increased annual ET by 12.8 mm/year. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 reduced annual ET by 0.84 mm, and its potential impacts under future atmospheric CO 2 levels could be much larger than estimates for the historical 1901–2008 period. Climate change determined the spatial pattern of ET changes across the entire study area, whereas land-use changes dramatically affected ET in watersheds with significant land conversions. In spite of the multiple benefits from afforestation, its impacts on water resources should be considered in future land-use policy making. As a result, elevated ET may also affect fresh water availability for the increasing social and economic water demands.« less

Spatiotemporal patterns of evapotranspiration along the North American east coast as influenced by multiple environmental changes

DOE PAGES

Yang, Qichun; Tian, Hanqin; Li, Xia; ...

2014-08-08

The North American east coast has experienced significant land-use and climate changes since the beginning of the 20th century. In this study, using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model 2.0 driven by time-series input data of land use, climate and atmospheric CO 2, we examined how these driving forces have affected the spatiotemporal trends and variability of evapotranspiration (ET) in this region during 1901–2008. Annual ET in the North American east coast during this period was 648.3 ± 38.6 mm/year and demonstrated an increasing trend. Factorial model simulations indicated that climate variability explained 76% of the inter-annual ET variability. Although land-usemore » change only explained 16% of the ET temporal variability, afforestation induced the upward trend of ET and increased annual ET by 12.8 mm/year. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 reduced annual ET by 0.84 mm, and its potential impacts under future atmospheric CO 2 levels could be much larger than estimates for the historical 1901–2008 period. Climate change determined the spatial pattern of ET changes across the entire study area, whereas land-use changes dramatically affected ET in watersheds with significant land conversions. In spite of the multiple benefits from afforestation, its impacts on water resources should be considered in future land-use policy making. As a result, elevated ET may also affect fresh water availability for the increasing social and economic water demands.« less

Impact of interannual variability (1979-1986) of transport and temperature on ozone as computed using a two-dimensional photochemical model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jackman, C.H.; Douglass, A.R., Chandra, S.; Stolarski, R.S.

1991-03-20

Eight years of NMC (National Meteorological Center) temperature and SBUV (solar backscattered ultraviolet) ozone data were used to calculate the monthly mean heating rates and residual circulation for use in a two-dimensional photochemical model in order to examine the interannual variability of modeled ozone. Fairly good correlations were found in the interannual behavior of modeled and measured SBUV ozone in the upper stratosphere at middle to low latitudes, where temperature dependent photochemistry is thought to dominate ozone behavior. The calculated total ozone is found to be more sensitive to the interannual residual circulation changes than to the interannual temperature changes.more » The magnitude of the modeled ozone variability is similar to the observed variability, but the observed and modeled year to year deviations are mostly uncorrelated. The large component of the observed total ozone variability at low latitudes due to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is not seen in the modeled total ozone, as only a small QBO signal is present in the heating rates, temperatures, and monthly mean residual circulation. Large interanual changes in tropospheric dynamics are believed to influence the interannual variability in the total ozone, especially at middle and high latitudes. Since these tropospheric changes and most of the QBO forcing are not included in the model formulation, it is not surprising that the interannual variability in total ozione is not well represented in the model computations.« less

Do Offshore Wind Farms Influence Marine Primary Production?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tweddle, J. F.; Murray, R. B. O.; Gubbins, M.; Scott, B. E.

2016-02-01

Primary producers (phytoplankton) form the basis of marine food-webs, supporting production of higher trophic levels, and act as a sink of CO2. We considered the impact of proposed large scale offshore wind farms in moderately deep waters (> 45 m) off the east coast of Scotland on rates of primary production. A 2 stage modelling process was used, employing state-of-the-art 3-D hydrographic models with the ability to capture flow at the spatial resolution of 10 m combined with 1-D vertical modelling using 7 years of local forcing data. Through influencing the strength of stratification via changes in current flow, large (100 m) modelled wind turbine foundations had a significant effect on primary producers, consistently reducing total annual primary production, although within the range of natural interannual variability. The percentage reduction was largest over submarine banks less than 54 m in depth, and was outside the range of natural interannual variability. Smaller (10 m) turbine foundations had no discernible effect on total annual primary production. The results indicate that smaller foundations should be favored as a mitigation measure, in terms of effects on primary production, and this type of analysis should be considered within sectoral planning and licensing processes for future renewable energy developments.

Wood phenology, not carbon input, controls the interannual variability of wood growth in a temperate oak forest.

PubMed

Delpierre, Nicolas; Berveiller, Daniel; Granda, Elena; Dufrêne, Eric

2016-04-01

Although the analysis of flux data has increased our understanding of the interannual variability of carbon inputs into forest ecosystems, we still know little about the determinants of wood growth. Here, we aimed to identify which drivers control the interannual variability of wood growth in a mesic temperate deciduous forest. We analysed a 9-yr time series of carbon fluxes and aboveground wood growth (AWG), reconstructed at a weekly time-scale through the combination of dendrometer and wood density data. Carbon inputs and AWG anomalies appeared to be uncorrelated from the seasonal to interannual scales. More than 90% of the interannual variability of AWG was explained by a combination of the growth intensity during a first 'critical period' of the wood growing season, occurring close to the seasonal maximum, and the timing of the first summer growth halt. Both atmospheric and soil water stress exerted a strong control on the interannual variability of AWG at the study site, despite its mesic conditions, whilst not affecting carbon inputs. Carbon sink activity, not carbon inputs, determined the interannual variations in wood growth at the study site. Our results provide a functional understanding of the dependence of radial growth on precipitation observed in dendrological studies. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Global atmospheric carbon budget: results from an ensemble of atmospheric CO2 inversions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peylin, P.; Law, R. M.; Gurney, K. R.; Chevallier, F.; Jacobson, A. R.; Maki, T.; Niwa, Y.; Patra, P. K.; Peters, W.; Rayner, P. J.; Rödenbeck, C.; Zhang, X.

2013-03-01

Atmospheric CO2 inversions estimate surface carbon fluxes from an optimal fit to atmospheric CO2 measurements, usually including prior constraints on the flux estimates. Eleven sets of carbon flux estimates are compared, generated by different inversions systems that vary in their inversions methods, choice of atmospheric data, transport model and prior information. The inversions were run for at least 5 yr in the period between 1990 and 2009. Mean fluxes for 2001-2004, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and trends are compared for the tropics and northern and southern extra-tropics, and separately for land and ocean. Some continental/basin-scale subdivisions are also considered where the atmospheric network is denser. Four-year mean fluxes are reasonably consistent across inversions at global/latitudinal scale, with a large total (land plus ocean) carbon uptake in the north (-3.3 Pg Cy-1 (±0.6 standard deviation)) nearly equally spread between land and ocean, a significant although more variable source over the tropics (1.6 ± 1.0 Pg Cy-1) and a compensatory sink of similar magnitude in the south (-1.4 ± 0.6 Pg Cy-1) corresponding mainly to an ocean sink. Largest differences across inversions occur in the balance between tropical land sources and southern land sinks. Interannual variability (IAV) in carbon fluxes is larger for land than ocean regions (standard deviation around 1.05 versus 0.34 Pg Cy-1 for the 1996-2007 period), with much higher consistency amoung the inversions for the land. While the tropical land explains most of the IAV (stdev ∼ 0.69 Pg Cy-1), the northern and southern land also contribute (stdev ∼ 0.39 Pg Cy-1). Most inversions tend to indicate an increase of the northern land carbon uptake through the 2000s (around 0.11 Pg Cy-1), shared by North America and North Asia. The mean seasonal cycle appears to be well constrained by the atmospheric data over the northern land (at the continental scale), but still highly dependent on the prior flux seasonality over the ocean. Finally we provide recommendations to interpret the regional fluxes, along with the uncertainty estimates.

Multiyear greenhouse gas balances at a rewetted temperate peatland.

PubMed

Wilson, David; Farrell, Catherine A; Fallon, David; Moser, Gerald; Müller, Christoph; Renou-Wilson, Florence

2016-12-01

Drained peat soils are a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the atmosphere. Rewetting these soils is considered an important climate change mitigation tool to reduce emissions and create suitable conditions for carbon sequestration. Long-term monitoring is essential to capture interannual variations in GHG emissions and associated environmental variables and to reduce the uncertainty linked with GHG emission factor calculations. In this study, we present GHG balances: carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) calculated for a 5-year period at a rewetted industrial cutaway peatland in Ireland (rewetted 7 years prior to the start of the study); and compare the results with an adjacent drained area (2-year data set), and with ten long-term data sets from intact (i.e. undrained) peatlands in temperate and boreal regions. In the rewetted site, CO 2 exchange (or net ecosystem exchange (NEE)) was strongly influenced by ecosystem respiration (R eco ) rather than gross primary production (GPP). CH 4 emissions were related to soil temperature and either water table level or plant biomass. N 2 O emissions were not detected in either drained or rewetted sites. Rewetting reduced CO 2 emissions in unvegetated areas by approximately 50%. When upscaled to the ecosystem level, the emission factors (calculated as 5-year mean of annual balances) for the rewetted site were (±SD) -104 ± 80 g CO 2 -C m -2  yr -1 (i.e. CO 2 sink) and 9 ± 2 g CH 4 -C m -2  yr -1 (i.e. CH 4 source). Nearly a decade after rewetting, the GHG balance (100-year global warming potential) had reduced noticeably (i.e. less warming) in comparison with the drained site but was still higher than comparative intact sites. Our results indicate that rewetted sites may be more sensitive to interannual changes in weather conditions than their more resilient intact counterparts and may switch from an annual CO 2 sink to a source if triggered by slightly drier conditions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparison of Model and Observed Regional Temperature Changes During the Past 40 Years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Gary L.; Miller, James R.; Rind, David; Ruedy, Reto A.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Sheth, Sukeshi

1999-01-01

Results are presented for six simulations of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global atmosphere-ocean model for the years 1950 to 2099. There are two control simulations with constant 1950 atmospheric composition from different initial states, two GHG experiments with observed greenhouse gases up to 1990 and compounded .5% CO2 annual increases thereafter, and two GHG+SO4 experiments with the same varying greenhouse gases plus varying tropospheric sulfate aerosols. Surface air temperature trends in the two GHG experiments are compared between themselves and with the observed temperature record from 1960 and 1998. All comparisons show high positive spatial correlation in the northern hemisphere except in summer when the greenhouse signal is weakest. The GHG+SO4 experiments show weaker correlations. In the southern hemisphere, correlations are either weak or negative which in part are due to the model's unrealistic interannual variability of southern sea ice cover. The model results imply that temperature changes due to forcing by increased greenhouse gases have risen above the level of regional interannual temperature variability in the northern hemisphere over the past 40 years. This period is thus an important test of reliability of coupled climate models.

The Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Budgets of N2O and CCl3F

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, Sun; Prather, Michael J.; Rind, David H.

1999-01-01

The 6-year wind archives from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies/Global Climate-Middle Atmosphere Model (GISS/GCMAM) were in- put to the GISS/Harvard/Irvine Chemical Transport Model (G/H/I CTM) to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the budgets and distributions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and trichlorofluoromethane (CCl3F), with the corresponding chemical loss frequencies recycled and boundary conditions kept unchanged from year to year. The effects of ozone feedback and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) were not included. However, the role of circulation variation in driving the lifetime variability is investigated. It was found that the global loss rates of these tracers are related to the extratropical planetary wave activity, which drives the tropical upward mass flux. For N2O, a semiannual signal in the loss rate variation is associated with the interhemispheric asymmetry in the upper stratospheric wave activity. For CCl3F, the semiannual signal is weaker, associated with the comparatively uniform wave episodes in the lower stratosphere. The loss rates lag behind the wave activity by about 1-2 months. The interannual variation of the GCM generated winds drives the interannual variation of the annually averaged lifetime. The year-to-year variations of the annually averaged lifetimes can be about 3% for N2O and 4% for CCl3F.

Interannual Variability of Ammonia Concentrations over the United States: Sources and Implications for Inorganic Particulate Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiferl, L. D.; Heald, C. L.; Van Damme, M.; Pierre-Francois, C.; Clerbaux, C.

2015-12-01

Modern agricultural practices have greatly increased the emission of ammonia (NH3) to the atmosphere. Recent controls to reduce the emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides (SOX and NOX) have increased the importance of understanding the role ammonia plays in the formation of surface fine inorganic particulate matter (PM2.5) in the United States. In this study, we identify the interannual variability in ammonia concentration, explore the sources of this variability and determine their contribution to the variability in surface PM2.5 concentration. Over the summers of 2008-2012, measurements from the Ammonia Monitoring Network (AMoN) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite instrument show considerable variability in both surface and column ammonia concentrations (+/- 29% and 28% of the mean), respectively. This observed variability is larger than that simulated by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, where meteorology dominates the variability in ammonia and PM2.5 concentrations compared to the changes caused by SOX and NOX reductions. Our initial simulation does not include year-to-year changes in ammonia agricultural emissions. We use county-wide information on fertilizer sales and livestock populations, as well as meteorological variations to account for the interannual variability in agricultural activity and ammonia volatilization. These sources of ammonia emission variability are important for replicating observed variations in ammonia and PM2.5, highlighting how accurate ammonia emissions characterization is central to PM air quality prediction.

Configuration and Intraseasonal Duration of Interannual Anomalies of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helfand, H. M.

2002-01-01

Despite the fact that the low-level jet of the southern Great Plains (the GPLLJ) of the U.S. is primarily a nocturnal phenomenon that virtually vanishes during the daylight hours, it is one of the most persistent and stable climatological features of the low-level continental flow during the warm-season months, May through August. We have used significant-level data to validate the skill of the GEOS-1 Data Assimilation System (DAS) in realistically detecting this jet and inferring its structure and evolution. We have then carried out a 15-year reanalysis with the GEOS-1 DAS to determine its climatology and mean diurnal cycle and to study its interannual variability. Interannual anomalies of the meridional flow associated with the GPLLJ are much smaller than the mean diurnal fluctuations, than random intraseasonal anomalies, and than the mean wind itself. There are three maxima of low-level meridional flow variance over the Great Plains and the Gulf of Mexico: a 1.2 m2 s-2 peak over the southeast Texas, to the east and south of the mean velocity peak, a 1.0 m2 s-2 peak over the western Gulf of Mexico, and a .8 m2 s-2 peak over the upper Great Plains (UGP), near the Nebraska/South Dakota border. Each of the three variance maxima corresponds to a spatially coherent, jet-like pattern of low-level flow interannual variability. There are also three dominant modes of interannual variability corresponding to the three variance maxima, but not in a simple one-to-one relationship. Cross-sectional profiles of mean southerly wind over Texas remain relatively stable and recognizable from year to year with only its eastward flank showing significant variability. This variability, however, exhibits a distinct, biennial oscillation during the first six to seven years of the reanalysis period and only then. This intermittent biennial oscillation (IBO, one of the three modes discussed in the previous paragraph) in the lowlevel flow is restricted to the region surrounding eastern Texas and is also evident in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set from about 1978 to 1985 or 1986 and again from 1995 to 2000. It is evident as well in surface pressure in both the GEOS-1 and NCEP/NCAR sets. The interannual anomalies do not necessarily persist uniformly throughout an entire season, but can fluctuate from one part of the season to the next. To estimate the characteristic sub-seasonal time scales for coherence of these fluctuations, we have taken the weekly anomaly of low-level wind at each point of the domain from the climatological average for that given point and that given week of the season and computed the covariance of its fluctuations over all weeks and over all years with the weekly climatological anomaly of the meridional wind at each of the three reference points discussed above. The typical duration of a coherent interannual anomaly within a given warm season increases with decreasing latitude from 2 to 3 weeks over the UGP, to 6 to 7 weeks over eastern Texas. Coherence over the western Gulf of Mexico is intermediate between the two with a typical duration of 4 to 5 weeks. There appears to be evidence that the interannual anomalies over Texas the Gulf propagate to the UGP after a week and those over the Gulf propagate there after 2 to 3 weeks. There also appears to be some reverse propagation of interannual anomalies over the UGP to Texas and to the Gulf after a period of about one week. The interannual anomalies in southerly flow over eastern Texas seem to correlate well with interannual anomalies of surface temperature and (negative) ground wetness and over western Texas.

Mechanisms Controlling Annual, Interannual, and Decadal Changes in California's Carbon Budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goulden, M. L.; Jin, Y.; Randerson, J. T.; Trumbore, S.; Hsueh, D.; Fellows, A.; Anderson, R.; McMillan, A.; Roberts, D.; Riley, W.; Dennison, P.

2006-12-01

We used remote sensing-based measurements of land-surface properties, in-situ measurements of land- atmosphere exchange, mechanistic models of biogeochemistry and atmospheric transport, and previously compiled data sets of fossil fuel use, agricultural yield, land use, and biomass to better understand California's Carbon budget. Key findings include: (1) California's NPP in the early 2000s (190 x 1012 gC y-1) was roughly double its fossil fuel emission (95 x 1012 gC y-1). Since ecosystem carbon storage is typically less than half NPP, California's net C budget was dominated by fossil fuel emissions. (2) Fluctuations in ecosystem NEP caused by climate variability (18 x 1012 gC y-1) were the dominant cause of interannual carbon cycle variability. Fluctuations in fossil fuel consumption caused by the business cycle (8 x 1012 gC y-1) and fluctuations associated with wildland fire (3 x 1012 gC y-1) were smaller. (3) Approximately 50% of California's fossil fuel emissions are advected to the south or west; only 50% of California's fossil fuel emissions are transported east, creating a challenge for efforts to use longitudinal CO2 gradients to constrain North America's carbon budget. (4) Alternative spectral indices based on visible greenness (VARI or VIG) or that include information on short-wave IR absorption (NDWI, NDII7 or RSR) were more tightly correlated with LAI, live fuel moisture, and whole ecosystem CO2 flux than more commonly used near-IR-based indices (NDVI, EVI). (5) Unmanaged forests, especially in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, have lost carbon over the last 70 years as a result of the selective mortality of large trees. This mortality was likely caused by episodic insect outbreaks, which may have been exacerbated by stand thickening associated with fire suppression.

One-Dimensional Coupled Ecosystem-Carbon Flux Model for the Simulation of Biogeochemical Parameters at Ocean Weather Station P

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Signorini, S.; McClain, C.; Christian, J.; Wong, C. S.

2000-01-01

In this Technical Publication, we describe the model functionality and analyze its application to the seasonal and interannual variations of phytoplankton, nutrients, pCO2 and CO2 concentrations in the eastern subarctic Pacific at Ocean Weather Station P (OWSP, 50 deg. N 145 deg. W). We use a verified one-dimensional ecosystem model, coupled with newly incorporated carbon flux and carbon chemistry components, to simulate 22 years (1958-1980) of pCO2 and CO2 variability at Ocean Weather Station P (OWS P). This relatively long period of simulation verifies and extends the findings of previous studies using an explicit approach for the biological component and realistic coupling with the carbon flux dynamics. The slow currents and the horizontally homogeneous ocean in the subarctic Pacific make OWS P one of the best available candidates for modeling the chemistry of the upper ocean in one dimension. The chlorophyll and ocean currents composite for 1998 illustrates this premise. The chlorophyll concentration map was derived from SeaWiFS data and the currents are from an OGCM simulation (from R. Murtugudde).

Modeling the volcanic signal in the atmospheric CO2 record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Chris D.; Cox, Peter M.

2001-06-01

There is significant interannual variability in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide even when the effect of anthropogenic sources has been accounted for. It has been shown that this variability is correlated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle [Bacastow, 1976; Keeling et al., 1995]. However, there are periods during the atmospheric CO2 record when this correlation does not hold and CO2 levels are much lower than can be explained by the correlation with ENSO. These periods coincide with major volcanic eruptions. It has been well documented that a major eruption has a cooling effect on the surface and lower troposphere [McCormick, 1992; Hansen, et al., 1996]. Here we show that it is likely that this cooling has a significant and measurable effect on the carbon cycle. We use a coupled general circulation climate-carbon cycle model to study the mechanisms involved. The model simulates the observed temperature and CO2 response of the climate to the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. The surface cooling due to the eruption leads to reduced soil and plant respiration globally and increased gross primary productivity in the tropics. The result is significant uptake of carbon (1-2 GtC yr-1) by the terrestrial biosphere for several years after the eruption. There is no significant variation in uptake or release of carbon by the oceans.

Long-term nadir observations of the O2 dayglow by SPICAM IR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guslyakova, S.; Fedorova, A.; Lefèvre, F.; Korablev, O.; Montmessin, F.; Trokhimovskiy, A.; Bertaux, J. L.

2016-03-01

The O2(a1Δg) dayglow at the 1.27 μm band on Mars is produced by the solar UV photolysis of ozone and quenched in collisions with CO2. The SPICAM IR instrument onboard the Mars Express orbiter observes the O2(a1Δg) emission in the Martian atmosphere starting from 2004. We present a continuous set of O2(a1Δg) dayglow intensities from nadir measurements for six Martian years from the end of MY26 to MY32. Maximum values of the O2(a1Δg) dayglow reaching 31 MR were observed in early northern and southern springs in both hemispheres. Near the equator a spring maximum of 5-8 MR was observed for all years. The emission intensity is minimum in the Southern hemisphere in summer with values of 1-2 MR. Comparison of the data with GCM simulations and simultaneous ozone measurements by SPICAM UV allows to derive the quenching rate (k) of the excited O2 molecules by CO2, k=0.73×10-20 cm3 molecules-1 s-1. The interannual variation of the O2 emission has been studied after applying correction for the local time. The O2(a1Δg) seasonal pattern is rather stable with average year-to-year relative variation of about 21%, in accord with interannual variations detected from the ground (Krasnopolsky, 2013). The most variable region corresponds to northern and southern spring at middle latitudes, coinciding with sublimation of the polar caps in both hemispheres. Southern latitudes also show a high year-to-year variability in summer (Ls=270-330°) relating to the dust activity in this region. A comparison with simultaneous SPICAM water vapor observations shows that the O2(a1Δg) dayglow depends on the water vapor variations, and clearly confirms their anti-correlation, excepting the case of low and middle latitudes in the aphelion period.

Linking interannual variability in shelf bottom water properties to the California Undercurrent and local processes in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, H. B.; Banas, N. S.; Hickey, B. M.; MacCready, P.

2016-02-01

The Pacific Northwest coast is an unusually productive area with a strong river influence and highly variable upwelling-favorable and downwelling-favorable winds, but recent trends in hypoxia and ocean acidification in this region are troubling to both scientists and the general public. A new ROMS hindcast model of this region makes possible a study of interannual variability. This study of the interannual temperature and salinity variability on the Pacific Northwest coast is conducted using a coastal hindcast model (43°N - 50°N) spanning 2002-2009 from the University of Washington Coastal Modeling Group, with a resolution of 1.5 km over the shelf and slope. Analysis of hindcast model results was used to assess the relative importance of source water variability, including the poleward California Undercurrent, local and remote wind forcing, winter wind-driven mixing, and river influence in explaining the interannual variations in the shelf bottom layer (40 - 80 m depth, 10 m thick) and over the slope (150 - 250 m depth, <100 km from shelf break) at each latitude within the model domain. Characterized through tracking of the fraction of Pacific Equatorial Water (PEW) relative to Pacific Subarctic Upper Water (PSUW) present on the slope, slope water properties at all latitudes varied little throughout the time series, with the largest variability due to patterns of large north-south advection of water masses over the slope. Over the time series, the standard deviation of slope temperature was 0.09 ˚C, while slope salinity standard deviation was 0.02 psu. Results suggest that shelf bottom water interannual variability is not driven primarily by interannual variability in slope water as shelf bottom water temperature and salinity vary nearly 10 times more than those over the slope. Instead, interannual variability in shelf bottom water properties is likely driven by other processes, such as local and remote wind forcing, and winter wind-driven mixing. The relative contributions of these processes to interannual variability in shelf bottom water properties will be addressed. Overall, these results highlight the importance of shelf processes relative to large-scale influences on the interannual timescale in particular. Implications for variability in hypoxia and ocean acidification impacts will be discussed.

How are interannual modes of variability IOD, ENSO, SAM, AMO excited by natural and anthropogenic forcing?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maher, Nicola; Marotzke, Jochem

2017-04-01

Natural climate variability is found in observations, paleo-proxies, and climate models. Such climate variability can be intrinsic internal variability or externally forced, for example by changes in greenhouse gases or large volcanic eruptions. There are still questions concerning how external forcing, both natural (e.g., volcanic eruptions and solar variability) and anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gases and ozone) may excite both interannual modes of variability in the climate system. This project aims to address some of these problems, utilising the large ensemble of the MPI-ESM-LR climate model. In this study we investigate the statistics of four modes of interannual variability, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using the 100-member ensemble of MPI-ESM-LR the statistical properties of these modes (amplitude and standard deviation) can be assessed over time. Here we compare the properties in the pre-industrial control run, historical run and future scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP2.6) and present preliminary results.

Changes in terrestrial CO2 budget in Siberia in the past three decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichii, K.; Kondo, M.; Ueyama, M.; Ito, A.; Kobayashi, H.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Maki, T.; Nakamura, T.; Niwa, Y.; Patra, P. K.; Saeki, T.; Sato, H.; Sasai, T.; Saigusa, N.; Tian, H.; Yanagi, Y.; Zhang, B.

2015-12-01

Siberia is one of the regions where significant warming is proceeding, and the warming might cause changes in terrestrial carbon cycle. We analyzed interannual and decadal changes in terrestrial CO2 fluxes in the regions using multiple data sets, such as empirically estimated carbon fluxes based on multiple eddy-covariance sites (empirical upscaling; Support Vector Regression with AsiaFlux data), satellite-based vegetation index data, multiple terrestrial carbon cycle models from Asia-MIP (e.g. BEAMS, Biome-BGC, SEIB-DGVM, and VISIT), and atmospheric inverse models (e.g. ACTM, JMA, NICAM-TM) for the past 3 decades (1980s, 1990s, and 2000s). First, we checked the consistency in interannual variation of net carbon exchange between empirical upscaling and Asia-MIP model for 2001-2011 period, and found these two estimations show overall consistent interannual variation. Second, we analyzed net carbon exchange form Asia-MIP models and atmospheric inversions for the past three decades, and found persistent increases in terrestrial CO2 sink from two estimates. Magnitudes of estimated terrestrial CO2 sinks are also consistent (e.g. Asia-MIP: 0.2 PgC yr-1 in 1980s and 0.3 PgC yr-1 in 2000s and Inversions: 0.2 PgC yr-1 in 1980s and 0.5 PgC/yr in 2000s). We further analyzed the cause of persistent increases in CO2 uptake in the region using Asia-MIP model outputs, and climate changes (both warming and increases in water availability) and CO2 fertilization plays almost equivalent roles in sink increases. In addition, both gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE) were increased, but increase in GPP was larger than that in RE.

Inter-Annual and Shorter-Term Variability in Physical and Biological Characteristics Across Barrow Canyon in August - September 2005-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashjian, C. J.; Okkonen, S. R.; Campbell, R. G.; Alatalo, P.

2014-12-01

Late summer physical and biological conditions along a 37-km transect crossing Barrow Canyon have been described for the past ten years as part of an ongoing program, supported by multiple funding sources including the NSF AON, focusing on inter-annual variability and the formation of a bowhead whale feeding hotspot near Barrow. These repeated transects (at least two per year, separated in time by days-weeks) provide an opportunity to assess the inter-annual and shorter term (days-weeks) changes in hydrographic structure, ocean temperature, current velocity and transport, chlorophyll fluorescence, nutrients, and micro- and mesozooplankton community composition and abundance. Inter-annual variability in all properties was high and was associated with larger scale, meteorological forcing. Shorter-term variability could also be high but was strongly influenced by changes in local wind forcing. The sustained sampling at this location provided critical measures of inter-annual variability that should permit detection of longer-term trends that are associated with ongoing climate change.

Effects of Uncertainty in TRMM Precipitation Radar Path Integrated Attenuation on Interannual Variations of Tropical Oceanic Rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan E.; Kummerow, Christian D.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30 deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Time series of rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) over the tropical oceans show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. We show that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series. Further analysis of the frequency distribution of PR (2A25 product) rain rates suggests that the algorithm incorporates the attenuation measurement in a very conservative fashion so as to optimize the instantaneous rain rates. Such an optimization appears to come at the expense of monitoring interannual climate variability.

Gross primary production of a semiarid grassland is enhanced by six years of exposure to elevated atmospheric CO2, warming, and irrigation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryan, E.; Ogle, K.; Peltier, D.; Williams, D. G.; Pendall, E.

2014-12-01

The goal of this study was to quantify interannual variation of gross primary production (GPP) and evaluate potential drivers of GPP with global change using the Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment in semiarid grassland in southeastern Wyoming. PHACE consists of the treatments: control, warming only, elevated CO2 (eCO2) only, eCO2 and warming, and irrigation only. We expected that GPP would be most strongly influenced by interannual variability in precipitation under all PHACE treatments, soil water availability under eCO2, and nitrogen availability. GPP data were obtained from paired measurements of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and ecosystem respiration (Reco; GPP = Reco - NEE) made on 2-4 week intervals over six growing seasons (2007-2012). Soil temperature (T), soil water content (SWC), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) were continuously recorded at the plot (T, SWC) and site (VPD, PAR) scales. Annual, plot-level aboveground plant nitrogen content (N) was measured during peak biomass. We fit a non-linear light-response model to the GPP data within a Bayesian framework, and modeled the maximum GPP rate (Gmax) and canopy light-use efficiency (Q) as functions of N and current and antecedent SWC, T, and VPD. The model fit the GPP data well (R2 = 0.64), and regardless of the PHACE treatment the most important drivers of GPP were N (for Gmax), VPD (Gmax and Q), antecedent T (Gmax), and antecedent VPD (Q). Model simulations predicted that annual GPP increased on average by about 16% with eCO2, 14% with warming, 12% with eCO2 and warming, and 23% with irrigation. For four of the six years, annual GPP was significantly affected by either eCO2 alone or when combined with warming. The increase in annual GPP under irrigation was similar to the increase under eCO2 during a dry year (2012), but irrigation stimulated GPP to a greater degree than eCO2 during wet years (2008, 2009). Hence, increases in GPP under eCO2 appear to be indirectly due to increases in SWC, especially under dry conditions. These results suggest that future climate scenarios will lead to more productive grasslands in semiarid regions, but the overall response of the C cycle and the potential for these systems to sequester greater C will depend on the magnitude and direction of both the Reco and GPP responses.

Reduced El Niño-Southern Oscillation during the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, Heather L.; Ravelo, A. Christina; Polissar, Pratigya J.

2015-01-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of global interannual variability, but its response to climate change is uncertain. Paleoclimate records from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provide insight into ENSO behavior when global boundary conditions (ice sheet extent, atmospheric partial pressure of CO2) were different from those today. In this work, we reconstruct LGM temperature variability at equatorial Pacific sites using measurements of individual planktonic foraminifera shells. A deep equatorial thermocline altered the dynamics in the eastern equatorial cold tongue, resulting in reduced ENSO variability during the LGM compared to the Late Holocene. These results suggest that ENSO was not tied directly to the east-west temperature gradient, as previously suggested. Rather, the thermocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific played a decisive role in the ENSO response to LGM climate.

Effects of winter temperature and summer drought on net ecosystem exchange of CO2 in a temperate peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helfter, Carole; Campbell, Claire; Dinsmore, Kerry; Drewer, Julia; Coyle, Mhairi; Anderson, Margaret; Skiba, Ute; Nemitz, Eiko; Billett, Michael; Sutton, Mark

2014-05-01

Northern peatlands are one of the most important global sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2); their ability to sequester C is a natural feedback mechanism controlled by climatic variables such as precipitation, temperature, length of growing season and period of snow cover. In the UK it has been predicted that peatlands could become a net source of carbon in response to climate change with climate models predicting a rise in global temperature of ca. 3oC between 1961-1990 and 2100. Land-atmosphere exchange of CO2in peatlands exhibits marked seasonal and inter-annual variations, which have significant short- and long-term effects on carbon sink strength. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 has been measured continuously by eddy-covariance (EC) at Auchencorth Moss (55° 47'32 N, 3° 14'35 W, 267 m a.s.l.), a temperate peatland in central Scotland, since 2002. Auchencorth Moss is a low-lying, ombrotrophic peatland situated ca. 20 km south-west of Edinburgh. Peat depth ranges from 5 m and the site has a mean annual precipitation of 1155 mm. The vegetation present within the flux measurement footprint comprises mixed grass species, heather and substantial areas of moss species (Sphagnum spp. and Polytrichum spp.). The EC system consists of a LiCOR 7000 closed-path infrared gas analyser for the simultaneous measurement of CO2 and water vapour and of a Gill Windmaster Pro ultrasonic anemometer. Over the 10 year period, the site was a consistent yet variable sink of CO2 ranging from -34.1 to -135.9 g CO2-C m-2 yr-1 (mean of -69.1 ± 33.6 g CO2-C m-2 yr-1). Inter-annual variability in NEE was positively correlated to the length of the growing seasons and mean winter air temperature explained 93% of the variability in summertime sink strength, indicating a phenological memory-effect. Plant development and productivity were stunted by colder winters causing a net reduction in the annual carbon sink strength of this peatland where autotrophic processes are thought to be dominant. The site is wet throughout most of the year (water table depth < 5 cm below the peat surface), but there are indications that drought enhanced heterotrophic respiration and depressed gross primary productivity (GPP); a sustained drought during the summer of 2010 (maximum water table depth 36 cm below surface) was accompanied by a two-fold increase in total respiration and a 30% decrease in GPP. The cold preceding winter could also have contributed to lowering GPP, and disentangling the confounding adverse effects of drought and winter climate on GPP is thus not straightforward. Whilst 2010 had the smallest NEE in the 2002-2012 period, the largest values were found for years with warm winters and relatively wet growing seasons. A simple parameterisation of the effects of PAR on GPP of and air temperature on ecosystem respiration, suggest that a rise in air temperature of 1° C between 2012 and 2065 could lead to a 73% increase in the carbon sink strength of the peatland, provided hydrological conditions remain unchanged. This demonstrates that climate change is not likely to change this peatland into a carbon source by 2100.

CMIP5 land surface models systematically underestimate inter-annual variability of net ecosystem exchange in semi-arid southwestern North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacBean, N.; Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.; Vuichard, N.; Hudson, A.; Barnes, M.; Fox, A. M.; Smith, W. K.; Peylin, P. P.; Maignan, F.; Moore, D. J.

2017-12-01

Recent studies based on analysis of atmospheric CO2 inversions, satellite data and terrestrial biosphere model simulations have suggested that semi-arid ecosystems play a dominant role in the interannual variability and long-term trend in the global carbon sink. These studies have largely cited the response of vegetation activity to changing moisture availability as the primary mechanism of variability. However, some land surface models (LSMs) used in these studies have performed poorly in comparison to satellite-based observations of vegetation dynamics in semi-arid regions. Further analysis is therefore needed to ensure semi-arid carbon cycle processes are well represented in global scale LSMs before we can fully establish their contribution to the global carbon cycle. In this study, we evaluated annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) simulated by CMIP5 land surface models using observations from 20 Ameriflux sites across semi-arid southwestern North America. We found that CMIP5 models systematically underestimate the magnitude and sign of NEE inter-annual variability; therefore, the true role of semi-arid regions in the global carbon cycle may be even more important than previously thought. To diagnose the factors responsible for this bias, we used the ORCHIDEE LSM to test different climate forcing data, prescribed vegetation fractions and model structures. Climate and prescribed vegetation do contribute to uncertainty in annual NEE simulations, but the bias is primarily caused by incorrect timing and magnitude of peak gross carbon fluxes. Modifications to the hydrology scheme improved simulations of soil moisture in comparison to data. This in turn improved the seasonal cycle of carbon uptake due to a more realistic limitation on photosynthesis during water stress. However, the peak fluxes are still too low, and phenology is poorly represented for desert shrubs and grasses. We provide suggestions on model developments needed to tackle these issues in the future.

Negative impacts of high temperatures on growth of black spruce forests intensify with the anticipated climate warming.

PubMed

Girardin, Martin P; Hogg, Edward H; Bernier, Pierre Y; Kurz, Werner A; Guo, Xiao Jing; Cyr, Guillaume

2016-02-01

An increasing number of studies conclude that water limitations and heat stress may hinder the capacity of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) trees, a dominant species of Canada's boreal forests, to grow and assimilate atmospheric carbon. However, there is currently no scientific consensus on the future of these forests over the next century in the context of widespread climate warming. The large spatial extent of black spruce forests across the Canadian boreal forest and associated variability in climate, demography, and site conditions pose challenges for projecting future climate change responses. Here we provide an evaluation of the impacts of climate warming and drying, as well as increasing [CO2 ], on the aboveground productivity of black spruce forests across Canada south of 60°N for the period 1971 to 2100. We use a new extensive network of tree-ring data obtained from Canada's National Forest Inventory, spatially explicit simulations of net primary productivity (NPP) and its drivers, and multivariate statistical modeling. We found that soil water availability is a significant driver of black spruce interannual variability in productivity across broad areas of the western to eastern Canadian boreal forest. Interannual variability in productivity was also found to be driven by autotrophic respiration in the warmest regions. In most regions, the impacts of soil water availability and respiration on interannual variability in productivity occurred during the phase of carbohydrate accumulation the year preceding tree-ring formation. Results from projections suggest an increase in the importance of soil water availability and respiration as limiting factors on NPP over the next century due to warming, but this response may vary to the extent that other factors such as carbon dioxide fertilization, and respiration acclimation to high temperature, contribute to dampening these limitations. © 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Natural Resources Canada.

1996-2007 Interannual Spatio-Temporal Variability in Snowmelt in Two Montane Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jepsen, S. M.; Molotch, N. P.; Rittger, K. E.

2009-12-01

Snowmelt is a primary water source for ecosystems within, and urban/agricultural centers near, mountain regions. Stream chemistry from montane catchments is controlled by the flowpaths of water from snowmelt and the timing and duration of snow coverage. A process level understanding of the variability in these processes requires an understanding of the effect of changing climate and anthropogenic loading on spatio-temporal snowmelt patterns. With this as our objective, we are applying a snow reconstruction model to two well-studied montane watersheds, Tokopah Basin (TOK), California and Green Lakes Valley (GLV), Colorado, to examine interannual variability in the timing and location of snowmelt in response to variable climate conditions during the period from 1996 to 2007. The reconstruction model back solves for snowmelt by combining surface energy fluxes, inferred from meteorological data, with sequences of melt season snow images derived from satellite data (i.e., snowmelt depletion curves). Preliminary model results for 2002 were tested against measured snow water equivalent (SWE) and hydrograph data for the two watersheds. The computed maximum SWE averaged over TOK and GLV were 94 cm (~+17% error) and 50.2 cm (~+1% error), respectively. We present an analysis of interannual variability in these errors, in addition to reconstructed snowmelt maps over different land cover types under changing climate conditions between 1996-2007, focusing on the variability with interannual variation in climate.

Interannual Variations of MLS Carbon Monoxide Induced by Solar Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jae N.; Wu, Dong L.; Ruzmaikin, Alexander

2013-01-01

More than eight years (2004-2012) of carbon monoxide (CO) measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are analyzed. The mesospheric CO, largely produced by the carbon dioxide (CO2) photolysis in the lower thermosphere, is sensitive to the solar irradiance variability. The long-term variation of observed mesospheric MLS CO concentrations at high latitudes is likely driven by the solar-cycle modulated UV forcing. Despite of different CO abundances in the southern and northern hemispheric winter, the solar-cycle dependence appears to be similar. This solar signal is further carried down to the lower altitudes by the dynamical descent in the winter polar vortex. Aura MLS CO is compared with the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) total solar irradiance (TSI) and also with the spectral irradiance in the far ultraviolet (FUV) region from the SORCE Solar-Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE). Significant positive correlation (up to 0.6) is found between CO and FUVTSI in a large part of the upper atmosphere. The distribution of this positive correlation in the mesosphere is consistent with the expectation of CO changes induced by the solar irradiance variations.

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes from three contrasting evergreen forests: the role of forest dynamics and climate.

PubMed

Sierra, Carlos A; Loescher, Henry W; Harmon, Mark E; Richardson, Andrew D; Hollinger, David Y; Perakis, Steven S

2009-10-01

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes can be attributed to a number of biotic and abiotic controls that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Type and frequency of disturbance, forest dynamics, and climate regimes are important sources of variability. Assessing the variability of carbon fluxes from these specific sources can enhance the interpretation of past and current observations. Being able to separate the variability caused by forest dynamics from that induced by climate will also give us the ability to determine if the current observed carbon fluxes are within an expected range or whether the ecosystem is undergoing unexpected change. Sources of interannual variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes from three evergreen ecosystems, a tropical, a temperate coniferous, and a boreal forest, were explored using the simulation model STANDCARB. We identified key processes that introduced variation in annual fluxes, but their relative importance differed among the ecosystems studied. In the tropical site, intrinsic forest dynamics contributed approximately 30% of the total variation in annual carbon fluxes. In the temperate and boreal sites, where many forest processes occur over longer temporal scales than those at the tropical site, climate controlled more of the variation among annual fluxes. These results suggest that climate-related variability affects the rates of carbon exchange differently among sites. Simulations in which temperature, precipitation, and radiation varied from year to year (based on historical records of climate variation) had less net carbon stores than simulations in which these variables were held constant (based on historical records of monthly average climate), a result caused by the functional relationship between temperature and respiration. This suggests that, under a more variable temperature regime, large respiratory pulses may become more frequent and high enough to cause a reduction in ecosystem carbon stores. Our results also show that the variation of annual carbon fluxes poses an important challenge in our ability to determine whether an ecosystem is a source, a sink, or is neutral in regard to CO2 at longer timescales. In simulations where climate change negatively affected ecosystem carbon stores, there was a 20% chance of committing Type II error, even with 20 years of sequential data.

Inter-annual variations of CO2 observed by commercial airliner in the CONTRAIL project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawa, Yousuke; Machida, Toshinobu; Matsueda, Hidekazu; Niwa, Yosuke; Umezawa, Taku

2016-04-01

Since 2005, we have conducted an observation program for greenhouse gases using the passenger aircraft of the Japan Airlines named Comprehensive Observation Network for TRace gases by AIrLiner (CONTRAIL). Over the past 10 years, successful operation of Continuous CO2 Measuring Equipment (CME) has delivered more than 6 million in-situ CO2 data from about 12000 flights between Japan and Europe, Australia, North America, or Asia. The large number of CME data enable us to well characterize spatial distributions and seasonal changes of CO2 in wide regions of the globe especially the Asia-Pacific regions. While the mean growth rates for the past 10 years were about 2 ppm/year, large growth rates of about 3 ppm/year were found in the wide latitudinal bands from 30S to 70N from the second half of 2012 to the first half of 2013. The multiyear data sets have the potential to help understand the global/regional CO2 budget. One good example is the significant inter-annual difference in CO2 vertical profiles observed over Singapore between October 2014 and October 2015, which is attributable to the massive biomass burnings in Indonesia in 2015.

Effect of climate variability and management practices on carbon, water and energy fluxes of a young Ponderosa pine plantation in the Sierra Nevada (CA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misson, L.; Tang, J.; McKay, M.; Goldstein, A. H.

2003-04-01

Despite the range and importance of semi-arid Ponderosa pine ecosystem in the United States, stand-scale fluxes of carbon, water and energy of these ecosystems have rarely been studied. Our research at the Blodgett Forest Research Station in the Sierra Nevada of California is advocated to better understand how these fluxes of a mid-elevation, young pine plantation vary interannually in response to climate variability, and how they are impacted by management practices such as shrub removal and thinning. Fluxes of CO2, H2O, and energy have been measured continuously since May 1999 by the eddy covariance method. Environmental parameters such as wind direction and speed, air temperature and humidity, net and photosynthetically active radiation, soil temperature, soil moisture, soil heat flux, rain, and atmospheric pressure are also monitored. Additional continuous measurements at the site have included O3 concentration and flux, and concentration and fluxes of a wide variety of volatile organic compounds. The data set covers periods characterized by various levels of drought stress. Shrub was removed in the spring 1999 and a precommercial thinning of 2/3 of the trees was applied in the spring 2000. Even during the winter, the young Ponderosa pine plantation at Blodgett acted mainly as a sink of carbon during the four years of measurement. The decrease of leaf area index and thus photosynthesis caused by thinning is the main factor that caused lower uptake, but increased respiration also occurred. These effects are limited in time and magnitude due to the rapidly increasing leaf area index after thinning. Beside this, the ability of this young pine plantation to act as a sink of carbon was also influenced by interannual variability of climate. Drought is a regular feature of the climate of California, making water availability the major controller of gas exchange in summer and fall. Freezing temperatures limit CO2 ecosystem uptake during the winter and tree growth in the early spring. Forests in the Sierra Nevada are adapted to the climate - they are most physiologically active in the late spring and early summer when soils are moist, and they become progressively more constrained through the summer growing season as soils dry out. Interannual differences in climate, such as El Nino years, are very important in regulating gas exchange processes and account for large variability from year to year. Our data set shows that a non-ordinary daily hysteretic behavior of net ecosystem exchange occurred regularly at our stand: in several cases late afternoon CO2 uptake was higher than in the early morning for equivalent photosynthetic active radiation, while temperature and thus ecosystem respiration was much higher. This behavior was correlated with higher aerosol counts in the afternoon, which often corresponds to greater light scattering. Enhanced afternoon photosynthesis activity was probably due to the higher diffuse/direct radiation ratio due to afternoon aerosol formation in this polluted area.

Effects of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of evapotranspiration in a coniferous plantation in subtropical China.

PubMed

Xu, Mingjie; Wen, Xuefa; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Wenjiang; Dai, Xiaoqin; Song, Jie; Wang, Yidong; Fu, Xiaoli; Liu, Yunfen; Sun, Xiaomin; Yu, Guirui

2014-01-01

Because evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest component of the water cycle and a critical process in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the inter-annual variability of ET is important in the context of global climate change. Eight years of continuous eddy covariance measurements (2003-2010) in a subtropical coniferous plantation were used to investigate the impacts of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of ET. The mean and standard deviation of annual ET for 2003-2010 were 786.9 and 103.4 mm (with a coefficient of variation of 13.1%), respectively. The inter-annual variability of ET was largely created in three periods: March, May-June, and October, which are the transition periods between seasons. A set of look-up table approaches were used to separate the sources of inter-annual variability of ET. The annual ETs were calculated by assuming that (a) both the climate and ecosystem responses among years are variable (Vcli-eco), (b) the climate is variable but the ecosystem responses are constant (Vcli), and (c) the climate is constant but ecosystem responses are variable (Veco). The ETs that were calculated under the above assumptions suggested that the inter-annual variability of ET was dominated by ecosystem responses and that there was a negative interaction between the effects of climate and ecosystem responses. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of water and energy balance in global climate change projections, the ecosystem responses must be taken into account to better constrain the uncertainties associated with estimation.

Effects of Climatic Factors and Ecosystem Responses on the Inter-Annual Variability of Evapotranspiration in a Coniferous Plantation in Subtropical China

PubMed Central

Xu, Mingjie; Wen, Xuefa; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Wenjiang; Dai, Xiaoqin; Song, Jie; Wang, Yidong; Fu, Xiaoli; Liu, Yunfen; Sun, Xiaomin; Yu, Guirui

2014-01-01

Because evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest component of the water cycle and a critical process in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the inter-annual variability of ET is important in the context of global climate change. Eight years of continuous eddy covariance measurements (2003–2010) in a subtropical coniferous plantation were used to investigate the impacts of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of ET. The mean and standard deviation of annual ET for 2003–2010 were 786.9 and 103.4 mm (with a coefficient of variation of 13.1%), respectively. The inter-annual variability of ET was largely created in three periods: March, May–June, and October, which are the transition periods between seasons. A set of look-up table approaches were used to separate the sources of inter-annual variability of ET. The annual ETs were calculated by assuming that (a) both the climate and ecosystem responses among years are variable (Vcli-eco), (b) the climate is variable but the ecosystem responses are constant (Vcli), and (c) the climate is constant but ecosystem responses are variable (Veco). The ETs that were calculated under the above assumptions suggested that the inter-annual variability of ET was dominated by ecosystem responses and that there was a negative interaction between the effects of climate and ecosystem responses. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of water and energy balance in global climate change projections, the ecosystem responses must be taken into account to better constrain the uncertainties associated with estimation. PMID:24465610

Climatic and biotic controls on annual carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tian, H.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; McGuire, A.D.; Helfrich, J.; Moore, B.; Vorosmarty, C.J.

2000-01-01

1 The role of undisturbed tropical land ecosystems in the global carbon budget is not well understood. It has been suggested that inter-annual climate variability can affect the capacity of these ecosystems to store carbon in the short term. In this paper, we use a transient version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to estimate annual carbon storage in undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems during the period 1980-94, and to understand the underlying causes of the year-to-year variations in net carbon storage for this region. 2 We estimate that the total carbon storage in the undisturbed ecosystems of the Amazon Basin in 1980 was 127.6 Pg C, with about 94.3 Pg C in vegetation and 33.3 Pg C in the reactive pool of soil organic carbon. About 83% of the total carbon storage occurred in tropical evergreen forests. Based on our model's results, we estimate that, over the past 15 years, the total carbon storage has increased by 3.1 Pg C (+ 2%), with a 1.9-Pg C (+2%) increase in vegetation carbon and a 1.2-Pg C (+4%) increase in reactive soil organic carbon. The modelled results indicate that the largest relative changes in net carbon storage have occurred in tropical deciduous forests, but that the largest absolute changes in net carbon storage have occurred in the moist and wet forests of the Basin. 3 Our results show that the strength of interannual variations in net carbon storage of undisturbed ecosystems in the Amazon Basin varies from a carbon source of 0.2 Pg C/year to a carbon sink of 0.7 Pg C/year. Precipitation, especially the amount received during the drier months, appears to be a major controller of annual net carbon storage in the Amazon Basin. Our analysis indicates further that changes in precipitation combine with changes in temperature to affect net carbon storage through influencing soil moisture and nutrient availability. 4 On average, our results suggest that the undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems accumulated 0.2 Pg C/year as a result of climate variability and increasing atmospheric CO2 over the study period. This amount is large enough to have compensated for most of the carbon losses associated with tropical deforestation in the Amazon during the same period. 5 Comparisons with empirical data indicate that climate variability and CO2 fertilization explain most of the variation in net carbon storage for the undisturbed ecosystems. Our analyses suggest that assessment of the regional carbon budget in the tropics should be made over at least one cycle of El Nino-Southern Oscillation because of inter-annual climate variability. Our analyses also suggest that proper scaling of the site-specific and sub-annual measurements of carbon fluxes to produce Basin-wide flux estimates must take into account seasonal and spatial variations in net carbon storage.

Effects of Recent Regional Soil Moisture Variability on Global Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, L. A.; Madani, N.; Kimball, J. S.; Reichle, R. H.; Colliander, A.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture exerts a major regional control on the inter-annual variability of the global land sink for atmospheric CO2. In semi-arid regions, annual biomass production is closely coupled to variability in soil moisture availability, while in cold-season-affected regions, summer drought offsets the effects of advancing spring phenology. Availability of satellite solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) observations and improvements in atmospheric inversions has led to unprecedented ability to monitor atmospheric sink strength. However, discrepancies still exist between such top-down estimates as atmospheric inversion and bottom-up process and satellite driven models, indicating that relative strength, mechanisms, and interaction of driving factors remain poorly understood. We use soil moisture fields informed by Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission (SMAP) observations to compare recent (2015-2017) and historic (2000-2014) variability in net ecosystem land-atmosphere CO2 exchange (NEE). The operational SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4C) product relates ground-based flux tower measurements to other bottom-up and global top-down estimates to underlying soil moisture and other driving conditions using data-assimilation-based SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4SM). Droughts in coastal Brazil, South Africa, Eastern Africa, and an anomalous wet period in Eastern Australia were observed by L4C. A seasonal seesaw pattern of below-normal sink strength at high latitudes relative to slightly above-normal sink strength for mid-latitudes was also observed. Whereas SMAP-based soil moisture is relatively informative for short-term temporal variability, soil moisture biases that vary in space and with season constrain the ability of the L4C estimates to accurately resolve NEE. Such biases might be caused by irrigation and plant-accessible ground-water. Nevertheless, SMAP L4C daily NEE estimates connect top-down estimates to variability of effective driving factors for accurate estimates of regional-to-global land-atmosphere CO2 exchange.

The climatology of carbon monoxide and water vapor on Mars as observed by CRISM and modeled by the GEM-Mars general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Michael D.; Daerden, Frank; Neary, Lori; Khayat, Alain

2018-02-01

Radiative transfer modeling of near-infrared spectra taken by the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) instrument onboard Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) enables the column-integrated abundance of carbon monoxide (CO) and water vapor (H2O) to be retrieved. These results provide a detailed global description of the seasonal and spatial distribution of CO in the Mars atmosphere and new information about the interannual variability of H2O. The CRISM retrievals show the seasonally and globally averaged carbon monoxide mixing ratio to be near 800 ppm, but with strong seasonal variations, especially at high latitudes. At low latitudes, the carbon monoxide mixing ratio varies in response to the mean seasonal cycle of surface pressure and shows little variation with topography. At high latitudes, carbon monoxide is depleted in the summer hemisphere by a factor of two or more, while in the winter hemisphere there is relatively higher mixing ratio in regions with low-lying topography. Water vapor shows only modest interannual variations, with the largest observed difference being unusually dry conditions in the wake of the Mars Year 28 global dust storm. Modeling results from the GEM-Mars general circulation model generally reproduce the observed seasonal and spatial trends and provide insight into the underlying physical processes.

Trends and Variability of Global Fire Emissions Due To Historical Anthropogenic Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Daniel S.; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Rabin, Sam

2018-01-01

Globally, fires are a major source of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere, occurring on a seasonal cycle and with substantial interannual variability. To understand past trends and variability in sources and sinks of terrestrial carbon, we need quantitative estimates of global fire distributions. Here we introduce an updated version of the Fire Including Natural and Agricultural Lands model, version 2 (FINAL.2), modified to include multiday burning and enhanced fire spread rate in forest crowns. We demonstrate that the improved model reproduces the interannual variability and spatial distribution of fire emissions reported in present-day remotely sensed inventories. We use FINAL.2 to simulate historical (post-1700) fires and attribute past fire trends and variability to individual drivers: land use and land cover change, population growth, and lightning variability. Global fire emissions of carbon increase by about 10% between 1700 and 1900, reaching a maximum of 3.4 Pg C yr-1 in the 1910s, followed by a decrease to about 5% below year 1700 levels by 2010. The decrease in emissions from the 1910s to the present day is driven mainly by land use change, with a smaller contribution from increased fire suppression due to increased human population and is largest in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Interannual variability of global fire emissions is similar in the present day as in the early historical period, but present-day wildfires would be more variable in the absence of land use change.

ENSO Modulations due to Interannual Variability of Freshwater Forcing and Ocean Biology-induced Heating in the Tropical Pacific

PubMed Central

Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Kang, Xianbiao; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Zhanggui; Feng, Licheng

2015-01-01

Recent studies have identified clear climate feedbacks associated with interannual variations in freshwater forcing (FWF) and ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) in the tropical Pacific. The interrelationships among the related anomaly fields are analyzed using hybrid coupled model (HCM) simulations to illustrate their combined roles in modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The HCM-based supporting experiments are performed to isolate the related feedbacks, with interannually varying FWF and OBH being represented individually or collectively, which allows their effects to be examined in a clear way. It is demonstrated that the interannual freshwater forcing enhances ENSO variability and slightly prolongs the simulated ENSO period, while the interannual OBH reduces ENSO variability and slightly shortens the ENSO period, with their feedback effects tending to counteract each other. PMID:26678931

Basinwide response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to interannual wind forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jian

2017-12-01

An eddy-resolving Ocean general circulation model For the Earth Simulator (OFES) and a simple wind-driven two-layer model are used to investigate the role of momentum fluxes in driving the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability throughout the Atlantic basin from 1950 to 2010. Diagnostic analysis using the OFES results suggests that interior baroclinic Rossby waves and coastal topographic waves play essential roles in modulating the AMOC interannual variability. The proposed mechanisms are verified in the context of a simple two-layer model with realistic topography and only forced by surface wind. The topographic waves communicate high-latitude anomalies into lower latitudes and account for about 50% of the AMOC interannual variability in the subtropics. In addition, the large scale Rossby waves excited by wind forcing together with topographic waves set up coherent AMOC interannual variability patterns across the tropics and subtropics. The comparisons between the simple model and OFES results suggest that a large fraction of the AMOC interannual variability in the Atlantic basin can be explained by wind-driven dynamics.

Locally driven interannual variability of near-surface pH and ΩA in the Strait of Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore-Maley, Ben L.; Allen, Susan E.; Ianson, Debby

2016-03-01

Declines in mean ocean pH and aragonite saturation state (ΩA) driven by anthropogenic CO2 emissions have raised concerns regarding the trends of pH and ΩA in estuaries. Low pH and ΩA can be harmful to a variety of marine organisms, especially those with calcium carbonate shells, and so may threaten the productive ecosystems and commercial fisheries found in many estuarine environments. The Strait of Georgia is a large, temperate, productive estuarine system with numerous wild and aquaculture shellfish and finfish populations. We determine the seasonality and variability of near-surface pH and ΩA in the Strait using a one-dimensional, biophysical, mixing layer model. We further evaluate the sensitivity of these quantities to local wind, freshwater, and cloud forcing by running the model over a wide range of scenarios using 12 years of observations. Near-surface pH and ΩA demonstrate strong seasonal cycles characterized by low pH, aragonite-undersaturated waters in winter and high pH, aragonite-supersaturated waters in summer. The aragonite saturation horizon generally lies at ˜20 m depth except in winter and during strong Fraser River freshets when it shoals to the surface. Periods of strong interannual variability in pH and aragonite saturation horizon depth arise in spring and summer. We determine that at different times of year, each of wind speed, freshwater flux, and cloud fraction are the dominant drivers of this variability. These results establish the mechanisms behind the emerging observations of highly variable near-surface carbonate chemistry in the Strait.

Interannual variability in phytoplankton pigment distribution during the spring transition along the west coast of North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, A. C.; Strub, P. T.

1989-01-01

A 5-year time series of coastal zone color scanner imagery (1980-1983, 1986) is used to examine changes in the large-scale pattern of chlorophyll pigment concentration coincident with the spring transition in winds and currents along the west coast of North America. The data show strong interannual variability in the timing and spatial patterns of pigment concentration at the time of the transition event. Interannual variability in the response of pigment concentration to the spring transition appears to be a function of spatial and temporal variability in vertical nutrient flux induced by wind mixing and/or the upwelling initiated at the time of the transition. Interannual differences in the mixing regime are illustrated with a one-dimensional mixing model.

Impact of a regional drought on terrestrial carbon fluxes and atmospheric carbon: results from a coupled carbon cycle model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, E.; Koster, R. D.; Ott, L. E.; Weir, B.; Mahanama, S. P. P.; Chang, Y.; Zeng, F.

2017-12-01

Understanding the underlying processes that control the carbon cycle is key to predicting future global change. Much of the uncertainty in the magnitude and variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) stems from uncertainty in terrestrial carbon fluxes. Budget-based analyses show that such fluxes exhibit substantial interannual variability, but the relative impacts of temperature and moisture variations on regional and global scales are poorly understood. Here we investigate the impact of a regional drought on terrestrial carbon fluxes and CO2 mixing ratios over North America using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Model. Two 48-member ensembles of NASA GEOS-5 simulations with fully coupled land and atmosphere carbon components are performed - a control ensemble and an ensemble with an artificially imposed dry land surface anomaly for three months (April-June) over the lower Mississippi River Valley. Comparison of the results using the ensemble approach allows a direct quantification of the impact of the regional drought on local and proximate carbon exchange at the land surface via the carbon-water feedback processes.

Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes

DOE PAGES

Zscheischler, Jakob; Fatichi, Simone; Wolf, Sebastian; ...

2016-08-08

Ecosystem models often perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes, resulting in considerable uncertainty when estimating the land-carbon sink. While many aggregated variables (growing season length, seasonal precipitation, or temperature) have been suggested as predictors for interannual variability in carbon fluxes, their explanatory power is limited and uncertainties remain as to their relative contributions. Recent results show that the annual count of hours where evapotranspiration (ET) is larger than its 95th percentile is strongly correlated with the annual variability of ET and gross primary production (GPP) in an ecosystem model. This suggests that the occurrence ofmore » favorable conditions has a strong influence on the annual carbon budget. Here we analyzed data from eight forest sites of the AmeriFlux network with at least 7 years of continuous measurements. We show that for ET and the carbon fluxes GPP, ecosystem respiration (RE), and net ecosystem production, counting the “most active hours/days” (i.e., hours/days when the flux exceeds a high percentile) correlates well with the respective annual sums, with correlation coefficients generally larger than 0.8. Phenological transitions have much weaker explanatory power. By exploiting the relationship between most active hours and interannual variability, we classify hours as most active or less active and largely explain interannual variability in ecosystem fluxes, particularly for GPP and RE. Our results suggest that a better understanding and modeling of the occurrence of large values in high-frequency ecosystem fluxes will result in a better understanding of interannual variability of these fluxes.« less

Physical associations to spring phytoplankton biomass interannual variability in the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saba, Vincent S.; Hyde, Kimberly J. W.; Rebuck, Nathan D.; Friedland, Kevin D.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Kahru, Mati; Fogarty, Michael J.

2015-02-01

The continental shelf of the Northeast United States and Nova Scotia is a productive marine ecosystem that supports a robust biomass of living marine resources. Understanding marine ecosystem sensitivity to changes in the physical environment can start with the first-order response of phytoplankton (i.e., chlorophyll a), the base of the marine food web. However, the primary physical associations to the interannual variability of chlorophyll a in these waters are unclear. Here we used ocean color satellite measurements and identified the local and remote physical associations to interannual variability of spring surface chlorophyll a from 1998 to 2013. The highest interannual variability of chlorophyll a occurred in March and April on the northern flank of Georges Bank, the western Gulf of Maine, and Nantucket Shoals. Complex interactions between winter wind speed over the Shelf, local winter water levels, and the relative proportions of Atlantic versus Labrador Sea source waters entering the Gulf of Maine from the previous summer/fall were associated with the variability of March/April chlorophyll a in Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine. Sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity were not robust correlates to spring chlorophyll a. Surface nitrate in the winter was not a robust correlate to chlorophyll a or the physical variables in every case suggesting that nitrate limitation may not be the primary constraint on the interannual variability of the spring bloom throughout all regions. Generalized linear models suggest that we can resolve 88% of March chlorophyll a interannual variability in Georges Bank using lagged physical data.

Climatology, Natural Cycles, and Modes of Interannual Variability of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet as Assimilated by the GEOS-1 Data Analysis System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helfand, H. M.; Schubert, S. D.; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Despite the fact that the low-level jet of the southern Great Plains (the GPLLJ) of the U.S. is primarily a nocturnal phenomenon that virtually vanishes during the daylight hours, it is one of the most persistent and stable features of the low-level continental flow during the warm-season months, May through August. We have first used significant-level data to validate the skill of the GEOS-1 Data Assimilation System (DAS) in realistically detecting this jet and inferring its structure and evolution. We have then carried out a 15-year reanalysis with the GEOS-1 DAS to determine and validate its climatology and mean diurnal cycle and to study its interannual variability. Interannual variability of the GPLLJ is much smaller than mean diurnal and random intraseasonal variability and comparable in magnitude, but not location, to mean seasonal variability. There are three maxima of interannual low-level meridional flow variability of the GPLLJ over the upper Great Plains, southeastern Texas, and the western Gulf of Mexico. Cross-sectional profiles of mean southerly wind through the Texas maximum remain relatively stable and recognizable from year to year with only its eastward flank showing significant variability. This variability, however, exhibits a distinct, biennial oscillation during the first six years of the reanalysis period and only then. Each of the three variability maxima corresponds to a spatially coherent, jet-like pattern of low-level flow interannual variability. There are three prominent modes of interannual. variability. These include the intermittent biennial oscillation (IBO), local to the Texas maximum. Its signal is evident in surface pressure, surface temperature, ground wetness and upper air flow, as well. A larger-scale continental convergence pattern (CCP) of covariance, exhibiting strong anti-correlation between the flow near the Texas and the upper Great Plains variability maxima, is revealed only when the IBO is removed from the interannual time series. A third, subtropical mode of covariance is associated with the Gulf of Mexico variability maximum. Significant interannual anti-correlations of the southeasterly flow over the Arizona/New Mexico region with the CCP and the subtropical mode are enhanced when restricted to the month of July. These anti-correlations may relate to an observed out-of-phase precipitation relationship between the Great Plains and the southwestern U.S.. The typical duration of interannual low-level meridional wind anomalies within a given season increases over the continent with decreasing latitude from two to three weeks over the upper Great Plains to six to seven weeks over eastern Texas.

Can the envisaged reductions of fossil fuel CO2 emissions be detected by atmospheric observations?

PubMed

Levin, Ingeborg; Rödenbeck, Christian

2008-03-01

The lower troposphere is an excellent receptacle, which integrates anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions over large areas. Therefore, atmospheric concentration observations over populated regions would provide the ultimate proof if sustained emissions changes have occurred. The most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO(2)), also shows large natural concentration variations, which need to be disentangled from anthropogenic signals to assess changes in associated emissions. This is in principle possible for the fossil fuel CO(2) component (FFCO(2)) by high-precision radiocarbon ((14)C) analyses because FFCO(2) is free of radiocarbon. Long-term observations of (14)CO(2) conducted at two sites in south-western Germany do not yet reveal any significant trends in the regional fossil fuel CO(2) component. We rather observe strong inter-annual variations, which are largely imprinted by changes of atmospheric transport as supported by dedicated transport model simulations of fossil fuel CO(2). In this paper, we show that, depending on the remoteness of the site, changes of about 7-26% in fossil fuel emissions in respective catchment areas could be detected with confidence by high-precision atmospheric (14)CO(2) measurements when comparing 5-year averages if these inter-annual variations were taken into account. This perspective constitutes the urgently needed tool for validation of fossil fuel CO(2) emissions changes in the framework of the Kyoto protocol and successive climate initiatives.

Mars dust storms - Interannual variability and chaos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingersoll, Andrew P.; Lyons, James R.

1993-01-01

The hypothesis is that the global climate system, consisting of atmospheric dust interacting with the circulation, produces its own interannual variability when forced at the annual frequency. The model has two time-dependent variables representing the amount of atmospheric dust in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Absorption of sunlight by the dust drives a cross-equatorial Hadley cell that brings more dust into the heated hemisphere. The circulation decays when the dust storm covers the globe. Interannual variability manifests itself either as a periodic solution in which the period is a multiple of the Martian year, or as an aperiodic (chaotic) solution that never repeats. Both kinds of solution are found in the model, lending support to the idea that interannual variability is an intrinsic property of the global climate system. The next step is to develop a hierarchy of dust-circulation models capable of being integrated for many years.

Interannual variability of snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains, United States: Examples from two alpine watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jepsen, Steven M.; Molotch, Noah P.; Williams, Mark W.; Rittger, Karl E.; Sickman, James O.

2012-02-01

The distribution of snow and the energy flux components of snowmelt are intrinsic characteristics of the alpine water cycle controlling the location of source waters and the effect of climate on streamflow. Interannual variability of these characteristics is relevant to the effect of climate change on alpine hydrology. Our objective is to characterize the interannual variability in the spatial distribution of snow and energy fluxes of snowmelt in watersheds of a maritime setting, Tokopah Basin (TOK) in California's southern Sierra Nevada, and a continental setting, Green Lake 4 Valley (GLV4) in Colorado's Front Range, using a 12 year database (1996-2007) of hydrometeorological observations and satellite-derived snow cover. Snowpacks observed in GLV4 exhibit substantially greater spatial variability than in TOK (0.75 versus 0.28 spatial coefficient of variation). In addition, modeling results indicate that the net turbulent energy flux contribution to snowmelt in GLV4 is, on average, 3 times greater in magnitude (mean 29% versus 10%) and interannual variability (standard deviation 17% versus 6%) than in TOK. These energy flux values exhibit strong seasonality, increasing as the melt season progresses to times later in the year (R2 = 0.54-0.77). This seasonality of energy flux appears to be associated with snowmelt rates that generally increase with onset date of melt (0.02 cm d-2). This seasonality in snowmelt rate, coupled to differences in hydrogeology, may account for the observed differences in correspondence between the timing of snowmelt and timing of streamflow in these watersheds.

Interannual variability of snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains, United States: examples from two alpine watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jepsen, Steven M.; Molotch, Noah P.; Williams, Mark W.; Rittger, Karl E.; Sickman, James O.

2012-01-01

The distribution of snow and the energy flux components of snowmelt are intrinsic characteristics of the alpine water cycle controlling the location of source waters and the effect of climate on streamflow. Interannual variability of these characteristics is relevant to the effect of climate change on alpine hydrology. Our objective is to characterize the interannual variability in the spatial distribution of snow and energy fluxes of snowmelt in watersheds of a maritime setting, Tokopah Basin (TOK) in California's southern Sierra Nevada, and a continental setting, Green Lake 4 Valley (GLV4) in Colorado's Front Range, using a 12 year database (1996–2007) of hydrometeorological observations and satellite-derived snow cover. Snowpacks observed in GLV4 exhibit substantially greater spatial variability than in TOK (0.75 versus 0.28 spatial coefficient of variation). In addition, modeling results indicate that the net turbulent energy flux contribution to snowmelt in GLV4 is, on average, 3 times greater in magnitude (mean 29% versus 10%) and interannual variability (standard deviation 17% versus 6%) than in TOK. These energy flux values exhibit strong seasonality, increasing as the melt season progresses to times later in the year (R2 = 0.54–0.77). This seasonality of energy flux appears to be associated with snowmelt rates that generally increase with onset date of melt (0.02 cm d-2). This seasonality in snowmelt rate, coupled to differences in hydrogeology, may account for the observed differences in correspondence between the timing of snowmelt and timing of streamflow in these watersheds.

Ensemble simulations of the role of the stratosphere in the attribution of northern extratropical tropospheric ozone variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, P.; Kinnison, D.; Tang, Q.

2015-03-01

Despite the need to understand the impact of changes in emissions and climate on tropospheric ozone, the attribution of tropospheric interannual ozone variability to specific processes has proven difficult. Here, we analyze the stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone variability and trends from 1953 to 2005 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes using four ensemble simulations of the free running (FR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The simulations are externally forced with observed time-varying (1) sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), (2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), (3) ozone depleting substances (ODS), (4) quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), (5) solar variability (SV) and (6) stratospheric sulfate surface area density (SAD). A detailed representation of stratospheric chemistry is simulated, including the ozone loss due to volcanic eruptions and polar stratospheric clouds. In the troposphere, ozone production is represented by CH4-NOx smog chemistry, where surface chemical emissions remain interannually constant. Despite the simplicity of its tropospheric chemistry, at many NH measurement locations, the interannual ozone variability in the FR WACCM simulations is significantly correlated with the measured interannual variability. This suggests the importance of the external forcing applied in these simulations in driving interannual ozone variability. The variability and trend in the simulated 1953-2005 tropospheric ozone from 30 to 90° N at background surface measurement sites, 500 hPa measurement sites and in the area average are largely explained on interannual timescales by changes in the 30-90° N area averaged flux of ozone across the 100 hPa surface and changes in tropospheric methane concentrations. The average sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to methane (percent change in ozone to a percent change in methane) from 30 to 90° N is 0.17 at 500 hPa and 0.21 at the surface; the average sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to the 100 hPa ozone flux (percent change in ozone to a percent change in the ozone flux) from 30 to 90° N is 0.19 at 500 hPa and 0.11 at the surface. The 30-90° N simulated downward residual velocity at 100 hPa increased by 15% between 1953 and 2005. However, the impact of this on the 30-90° N 100 hPa ozone flux is modulated by the long-term changes in stratospheric ozone. The ozone flux decreases from 1965 to 1990 due to stratospheric ozone depletion, but increases again by approximately 7% from 1990 to 2005. The first empirical orthogonal function of interannual ozone variability explains from 40% (at the surface) to over 80% (at 150 hPa) of the simulated ozone interannual variability from 30 to 90° N. This identified mode of ozone variability shows strong stratosphere-troposphere coupling, demonstrating the importance of the stratosphere in an attribution of tropospheric ozone variability. The simulations, with no change in emissions, capture almost 50% of the measured ozone change during the 1990s at a variety of locations. This suggests that a large portion of the measured change is not due to changes in emissions, but can be traced to changes in large-scale modes of ozone variability. This emphasizes the difficulty in the attribution of ozone changes, and the importance of natural variability in understanding the trends and variability of ozone. We find little relation between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and large-scale tropospheric ozone variability over the long-term record.

Detecting Patterns of Changing Carbon Uptake in Alaska Using Sustained In Situ and Remote Sensing CO2 Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parazoo, N.; Miller, C. E.; Commane, R.; Wofsy, S. C.; Koven, C.; Lawrence, D. M.; Lindaas, J.; Chang, R. Y. W.; Sweeney, C.

2015-12-01

The future trajectory of Arctic ecosystems as a carbon sink or source is of global importance due to vast quantities of carbon in permafrost soils. Over the last few years, a sustained set of airborne (NOAA-PFA, NOAA-ACG, and CARVE) and satellite (OCO-2 and GOSAT) atmospheric CO2 mole fraction measurements have provided unprecedented space and time scale sampling density across Alaska, making it possible to study the Arctic carbon cycle in more detail than ever before. Here, we use a synthesis of airborne and satellite CO2 over the 2009-2013 period with simulated concentrations from CLM4.5 and GEOS-Chem to examine the extent to which regional-scale carbon cycle changes in Alaska can be distinguished from interannual variability and long-range transport. We show that observational strategies focused on sustained profile measurements spanning continental interiors provide key insights into magnitude, duration, and variability of Summer sink activity, but that cold season sources are currently poorly resolved due to lack of sustained spatial sampling. Consequently, although future CO2 budgets dominated by enhanced cold season emission sources under climate warming and permafrost thaw scenarios are likely to produce substantial changes to near-surface CO2 gradients and seasonal cycle amplitude, they are unlikely to be detected by current observational strategies. We conclude that airborne and ground-based networks that provide more spatial coverage in year round profiles will help compensate for systematic sampling gaps in NIR passive satellite systems and provide essential constraints for Arctic carbon cycle changes.

Phenological and physiological mechanisms underlying interannual variability of terrestrial net ecosystem production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, S.; Luo, Y.; Hui, D.; Chen, J.

2013-12-01

The interannual variability (IAV) of atmospheric CO2 concentration varies substantial and is largely ascribed to IAV of terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes. However, we have limited understanding on the mechanisms that control the IAV on the carbon flux of terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we hypothesized that physiological and phonological processes regulate IAV significantly in terrestrial carbon uptake (i.e., net ecosystem production, NEP). To test this hypothesis, we analyzed eddy-covariance data from 24 sites with more than 8 years data in deciduous broadleaf forests (DBF), evergreen forests (EF), and grasslands (GRA) in the northern hemisphere. Ecosystem physiology is represented by the maximum carbon uptake capacity (NEPmax) in one year whereas phonology is represented by carbon uptake period (CUP). We found that yearly anomalies of CUP and NEPmax accounted for 40% and 60% separately, and 73% in combination, of the anomalies in annual NEP across all the 253 site-years, with their relative contributions varying among the sites. The IAV of CUP was determined by the anomalies of spring and autumn carbon uptake phenology, both of which were sensitive to climate changes but controlled by different environmental factors in different biomes. IAV of NEPmax was determined by summer precipitation anomalies in DBF and GRA. The results suggest that IAV of NEP is consistently co-determined by CUP and NEPmax anomalies among sites in the northern hemisphere. Overall, the mechanisms revealed by our study on NEP anomalies through changing in phenology and physiology contribute to predictive understanding of temporal dynamics of terrestrial carbon uptake.

State and Trends of the Global Carbon Budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canadell, J.

2017-12-01

Long-term redistribution of carbon among fossil fuel reserves, the atmosphere, oceans and land largely determines the degree of the human perturbation of the atmosphere and the climate system. Here I'll show a number of diagnostics to characterize changes in the global carbon cycle, including: 1) the continued growth in atmospheric CO2 despite an apparent stabilization in the growth of fossil fuel emissions and the likely emissions decline from land use change; 2) the growth in the land and ocean sinks in response to the rise in excess atmospheric CO2 with large annual and decadal variability; and 3) key drivers of these trends including the global greening, spatial distribution of carbons sinks, and responses to inter-annual variability. Efforts to attribute driving processes to the growing sinks require a strong CO2 fertilization effect on vegetation growth and emerging trends show an under realized role of semiarid regions in contributing to the mean, trend and variability of the global land sink. Climate variability, including ENSO and the 2000's slowdown in terrestrial global warming, has produced opportunities to explore the drivers of global carbon fluxes as they take large departures from mean states (e.g., high rates of atmospheric CO2 accumulation along with no growth in fossil fuel emissions and strong land greening trends in recent years). Process attribution shows the strong interplay between gross primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration in response to warming, and the role of tropical and sub-tropical systems to the overall sink. New advances in observations and data handling are critical in reducing uncertainties including 1) Bayesian fusion approaches to optimally combine multiple data streams of ocean and land uptake, and fossil fuel and land use change emissions; 2) continuous landscape carbon density measurements and column CO2 from remotely sensed platforms; and 3) improved ocean circulation and CO2 uptake at the decadal scales; among others. This presentation builds upon the work done by a team of international scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project.

Coccolithophore surface distributions in the North Atlantic and their modulation of the air-sea flux of CO2 from 10 years of satellite Earth observation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shutler, J. D.; Land, P. E.; Brown, C. W.; Findlay, H. S.; Donlon, C. J.; Medland, M.; Snooke, R.; Blackford, J. C.

2013-04-01

Coccolithophores are the primary oceanic phytoplankton responsible for the production of calcium carbonate (CaCO3). These climatically important plankton play a key role in the oceanic carbon cycle as a major contributor of carbon to the open ocean carbonate pump (~50%) and their calcification can affect the atmosphere-to-ocean (air-sea) uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) through increasing the seawater partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2). Here we document variations in the areal extent of surface blooms of the globally important coccolithophore, Emiliania huxleyi, in the North Atlantic over a 10-year period (1998-2007), using Earth observation data from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS). We calculate the annual mean sea surface areal coverage of E. huxleyi in the North Atlantic to be 474 000 ± 104 000 km2, which results in a net CaCO3 carbon (CaCO3-C) production of 0.14-1.71 Tg CaCO3-C per year. However, this surface coverage (and, thus, net production) can fluctuate inter-annually by -54/+8% about the mean value and is strongly correlated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate oscillation index (r=0.75, p<0.02). Our analysis evaluates the spatial extent over which the E. huxleyi blooms in the North Atlantic can increase the pCO2 and, thus, decrease the localised air-sea flux of atmospheric CO2. In regions where the blooms are prevalent, the average reduction in the monthly air-sea CO2 flux can reach 55%. The maximum reduction of the monthly air-sea CO2 flux in the time series is 155%. This work suggests that the high variability, frequency and distribution of these calcifying plankton and their impact on pCO2 should be considered if we are to fully understand the variability of the North Atlantic air-to-sea flux of CO2. We estimate that these blooms can reduce the annual N. Atlantic net sink atmospheric CO2 by between 3-28%.

The contributions of local and remote atmospheric moisture fluxes to East Asian precipitation and its variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Liang; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew G.; Stephan, Claudia C.

2018-01-01

We investigate the contribution of the local and remote atmospheric moisture fluxes to East Asia (EA) precipitation and its interannual variability during 1979-2012. We use and expand the Brubaker et al. (J Clim 6:1077-1089,1993) method, which connects the area-mean precipitation to area-mean evaporation and the horizontal moisture flux into the region. Due to its large landmass and hydrological heterogeneity, EA is divided into five sub-regions: Southeast (SE), Tibetan Plateau (TP), Central East (CE), Northwest (NW) and Northeast (NE). For each region, we first separate the contributions to precipitation of local evaporation from those of the horizontal moisture flux by calculating the precipitation recycling ratio: the fraction of precipitation over a region that originates as evaporation from the same region. Then, we separate the horizontal moisture flux across the region's boundaries by direction. We estimate the contributions of the horizontal moisture fluxes from each direction, as well as the local evaporation, to the mean precipitation and its interannual variability. We find that the major contributors to the mean precipitation are not necessarily those that contribute most to the precipitation interannual variability. Over SE, the moisture flux via the southern boundary dominates the mean precipitation and its interannual variability. Over TP, in winter and spring, the moisture flux via the western boundary dominates the mean precipitation; however, variations in local evaporation dominate the precipitation interannual variability. The western moisture flux is the dominant contributor to the mean precipitation over CE, NW and NE. However, the southern or northern moisture flux or the local evaporation dominates the precipitation interannual variability over these regions, depending on the season. Potential mechanisms associated with interannual variability in the moisture flux are identified for each region. The methods and results presented in this study can be readily applied to model simulations, to identify simulation biases in precipitation that relate to the simulated moisture supplies and transport.

Contribution of Phenological and Physiological Variations on Northern Vegetation Productivity Changes over Last Three Decades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganguly, Sangram

2015-01-01

Plant phenology and maximum photosynthetic state determine spatiotemporal variability of gross primary productivity (GPP) of vegetation. Recent warming induced impacts accelerate shifts of phenology and physiological status over Northern vegetated land. Thus, understanding and quantifying these changes are very important. Here, we investigate 1) how vegetation phenology and physiological status (maximum photosynthesis) are evolved over last three decades and 2) how such components (phenology and physiological status) contribute on inter-annual variation of the GPP during the last three decades. We utilized both long-term remotely sensed (GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies), NDVI3g (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index 3rd generation) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)) to extract larger scale phenology metrics (growing season start, end and duration); and productivity (i.e., growing season integrated vegetation index, GSIVI) to answer these questions. For evaluation purpose, we also introduced field-measured phenology and productivity datasets (e.g., FLUXNET) and possible remotely-sensed and modeled metrics at continental and regional scales. From this investigation, we found that onset of the growing season has advanced by 1.61 days per decade and the growing season end has delayed by 0.67 days per decade over the circumpolar region. This asymmetric extension of growing season results in a longer growing-season trend (2.96 days per decade) and widespread increasing vegetation-productivity trend (2.96 GSIVI per decade) over Northern land. However, the regionally-diverged phenology shift and maximum photosynthetic state contribute differently characterized productivity, inter-annual variability and trend. We quantified that about 50 percent, 13 percent and 6.5 percent of Northern land's inter-annual variability are dominantly controlled by the onset of the growing season, the end of the growing season and the maximum photosynthetic state, respectively. Productivity characterization over the other approximately 30 percent region has been driven by these co-dominant drivers. Our study clearly shows that regionally different contribution of phenological and physiological components on characterizing vegetation production over the last three decades.

Weakening temperature control on the interannual variations of spring carbon uptake across northern lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piao, S.; Peng, S.; Liu, Z.; Ciais, P.; Wang, T.; Huang, M.; Ahlstrom, A.; Burkhart, J. F.; Chevallier, F.; Jeong, S. J.; Janssens, I. A.; Lin, X.; Mao, J.; Myneni, R.; Shi, X.; van der Velde, I. R.; Stohl, A.; Mohammat, A.; Yao, Y.; Peñuelas, J.; Zhu, Z.; Tans, P. P.

2017-12-01

Ongoing spring warming allows the growing season to begin earlier, enhancing carbon uptake in northern ecosystems. Here we use 34 years of atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements at Barrow, Alaska (BRW, 71o N) to show that the interannual relationship between spring temperature and carbon uptake has recently shifted. We use two indicators: the spring zero-crossing date of atmospheric CO2 (SZC) and the magnitude of CO2 draw down between May and June (SCC). The previously reported strong correlation between SZC, SCC and spring land temperature (ST) was found in the first 17 years of measurements, but disappeared in the last 17 years. As a result, the sensitivity of both SZC and SCC to warming decreased. Simulations with an atmospheric transport model coupled to a terrestrial ecosystem model suggest that the weakened interannual correlation of SZC and SCC with ST in the last 17 years is attributable to the declining temperature response of spring net primary productivity (NPP) rather than to changes in heterotrophic respiration or in atmospheric transport patterns. Reduced chilling during dormancy and emerging light limitation are possible mechanisms that may have contributed to the loss of NPP response to ST. Our results thus challenge the `warmer spring-bigger sink' mechanism.

Weakening temperature control on the interannual variations of spring carbon uptake across northern lands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piao, Shilong; Liu, Zhuo; Wang, Tao

2017-04-24

Ongoing spring warming allows the growing season to begin earlier, enhancing carbon uptake in northern ecosystems. We use 34 years of atmospheric CO 2 concentration measurements at Barrow, Alaska (BRW, 71° N) to show that the interannual relationship between spring temperature and carbon uptake has recently shifted. Here, we use two indicators: the spring zero-crossing date of atmospheric CO 2 (SZC) and the magnitude of CO 2 drawdown between May and June (SCC). The previously reported strong correlation between SZC, SCC and spring land temperature (ST) was found in the first 17 years of measurements, but disappeared in the lastmore » 17 years. As a result, the sensitivity of both SZC and SCC to warming decreased. Simulations with an atmospheric transport model coupled to a terrestrial ecosystem model suggest that the weakened interannual correlation of SZC and SCC with ST in the last 17 years is attributable to the declining temperature response of spring net primary productivity (NPP) rather than to changes in heterotrophic respiration or in atmospheric transport patterns. Reduced chilling during dormancy and emerging light limitation are possible mechanisms that may have contributed to the loss of NPP response to ST. These results thus challenge the ‘warmer spring–bigger sink’ mechanism.« less

The Effect of the Interannual Variability of the OH Sink on the Interannual Variability of the Atmospheric Methane Mixing Ratio and Carbon Stable Isotope Composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillermo Nuñez Ramirez, Tonatiuh; Houweling, Sander; Marshall, Julia; Williams, Jason; Brailsford, Gordon; Schneising, Oliver; Heimann, Martin

2013-04-01

The atmospheric hydroxyl radical concentration (OH) varies due to changes in the incoming UV radiation, in the abundance of atmospheric species involved in the production, recycling and destruction of OH molecules and due to climate variability. Variability in carbon monoxide emissions from biomass burning induced by El Niño Southern Oscillation are particularly important. Although the OH sink accounts for the oxidation of approximately 90% of atmospheric CH4, the effect of the variability in the distribution and strength of the OH sink on the interannual variability of atmospheric methane (CH4) mixing ratio and stable carbon isotope composition (δ13C-CH4) has often been ignored. To show this effect we simulated the atmospheric signals of CH4 in a three-dimensional atmospheric transport model (TM3). ERA Interim reanalysis data provided the atmospheric transport and temperature variability from 1990 to 2010. We performed simulations using time dependent OH concentration estimations from an atmospheric chemistry transport model and an atmospheric chemistry climate model. The models assumed a different set of reactions and algorithms which caused a very different strength and distribution of the OH concentration. Methane emissions were based on published bottom-up estimates including inventories, upscaled estimations and modeled fluxes. The simulations also included modeled concentrations of atomic chlorine (Cl) and excited oxygen atoms (O(1D)). The isotopic signal of the sources and the fractionation factors of the sinks were based on literature values, however the isotopic signal from wetlands and enteric fermentation processes followed a linear relationship with a map of C4 plant fraction. The same set of CH4emissions and stratospheric reactants was used in all simulations. Two simulations were done per OH field: one in which the CH4 sources were allowed to vary interannually, and a second where the sources were climatological. The simulated mixing ratios and isotopic compositions at global reference stations were used to construct more robust indicators such as global and zonal means and interhemispheric differences. We also compared the model CH4 mixing ratio to satellite observations, for the period 2003 to 2004 with SCIAMACHY and from 2009 to 2010 with GOSAT. The interannual variability of the different OH fields imprinted an interannual variation of the atmospheric CH4 mixing ratio with a magnitude of ±10 ppb, which is comparable to the effect of all sources combined. Meanwhile its effect on the interannual variability of δ13C-CH4 was minor (< 10%). The interannual variability of the mixing ratio interhemispheric difference is dominated by the sources because the OH sink is concentrated in the tropics, thus its interannual variability affects both hemispheres. Meanwhile, although the OH plays an important role in the establishment of an interhemispheric gradient of δ13C-CH4, the interannual variation of this gradient is negligibly affected by the choice of OH field. Overall the study showed that the variability of the OH sink plays a significant role in the interannual variability of the atmospheric methane mixing ratio, and must be considered to improve our understanding of the recent trends in the global methane budget.

Inter-annual Variability in Tundra Phenology Captured with Digital Photography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melendez, M.; Vargas, S. A.; Tweedie, C. E.

2012-12-01

The need to improve multi-scale phenological monitoring of arctic terrestrial ecosystems has been a persistent research challenge. Although there has been a range of advances in remote sensing capacities over the past decade, these present costly, and sometimes logistically challenging and technically demanding solutions for arctic terrestrial ecosystems. In this poster and undergraduate research project, we demonstrate how seasonal and inter-annual variability in landscape phenology can be derived for multiple tundra ecosystems using a low-cost and low-tech kite aerial photography (KAP) system that has been developed as a contribution to the US Arctic Observing Network. Seasonal landscape phenology was observed over the Networked Info-Mechanical Systems (NIMS) grids (2 x 50 meters) located in Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska using imagery acquired with KAP and analyzed for a range of greenness indices. Preliminary results showed that the 2G-RB greenness index correlated the best with NDVI values calculated from ground based hyperspectral reflectance measurements. 2012 had the highest 2G-RB greenness index values for both Barrow and Atqasuk sites, which correlated well with NDVI values acquired from ground-based hyperspectral reflectance measurements. Wet vegetation types showed the most interannual variability at the Atqasuk site based on the 2G-RB greenness index while in Barrow the moist vegetation types showed the most interannual variability. These results show that vegetation indices similar to those acquired from hyperspectral remote sensing platforms can be derived using low-cost and low-tech techniques. Further analysis using these same techniques is required in order to link relatively small scale vegetation dynamics measured with KAP with those documented at large scales using satellite imagery.

Long-Term Drainage Reduces CO2 Uptake and CH4 Emissions in a Siberian Permafrost Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kittler, Fanny; Heimann, Martin; Kolle, Olaf; Zimov, Nikita; Zimov, Sergei; Göckede, Mathias

2017-12-01

Permafrost landscapes in northern high latitudes with their massive organic carbon stocks are an important, poorly known, component of the global carbon cycle. However, in light of future Arctic warming, the sustainability of these carbon pools is uncertain. To a large part, this is due to a limited understanding of the carbon cycle processes because of sparse observations in Arctic permafrost ecosystems. Here we present an eddy covariance data set covering more than 3 years of continuous CO2 and CH4 flux observations within a moist tussock tundra ecosystem near Chersky in north-eastern Siberia. Through parallel observations of a disturbed (drained) area and a control area nearby, we aim to evaluate the long-term effects of a persistently lowered water table on the net vertical carbon exchange budgets and the dominating biogeochemical mechanisms. Persistently drier soils trigger systematic shifts in the tundra ecosystem carbon cycle patterns. Both, uptake rates of CO2 and emissions of CH4 decreased. Year-round measurements emphasize the importance of the non-growing season—in particular the "zero-curtain" period in the fall—to the annual budget. Approximately 60% of the CO2 uptake in the growing season is lost during the cold seasons, while CH4 emissions during the non-growing season account for 30% of the annual budget. Year-to-year variability in temperature conditions during the late growing season was identified as the primary control of the interannual variability observed in the CO2 and CH4 fluxes.

Variability and change of sea level and its components in the Indo-Pacific region during the altimetry era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Quran; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Hu, Jianyu

2017-03-01

Previous studies have shown that regional sea level exhibits interannual and decadal variations associated with the modes of climate variability. A better understanding of those low-frequency sea level variations benefits the detection and attribution of climate change signals. Nonetheless, the contributions of thermosteric, halosteric, and mass sea level components to sea level variability and trend patterns remain unclear. By focusing on signals associated with dominant climate modes in the Indo-Pacific region, we estimate the interannual and decadal fingerprints and trend of each sea level component utilizing a multivariate linear regression of two adjoint-based ocean reanalyses. Sea level interannual, decadal, and trend patterns primarily come from thermosteric sea level (TSSL). Halosteric sea level (HSSL) is of regional importance in the Pacific Ocean on decadal time scale and dominates sea level trends in the northeast subtropical Pacific. The compensation between TSSL and HSSL is identified in their decadal variability and trends. The interannual and decadal variability of temperature generally peak at subsurface around 100 m but that of salinity tend to be surface-intensified. Decadal temperature and salinity signals extend deeper into the ocean in some regions than their interannual equivalents. Mass sea level (MassSL) is critical for the interannual and decadal variability of sea level over shelf seas. Inconsistencies exist in MassSL trend patterns among various estimates. This study highlights regions where multiple processes work together to control sea level variability and change. Further work is required to better understand the interaction of different processes in those regions.

MECA Symposium on Mars: Evolution of its Climate and Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, Victor (Editor); Carr, Michael (Editor); Fanale, Fraser (Editor); Greeley, Ronald (Editor); Haberle, Robert (Editor); Leovy, Conway (Editor); Maxwell, Ted (Editor)

1987-01-01

The geological, atmospheric, and climatic history of Mars is explored in reviews and reports of recent observational and interpretive investigations. Topics addressed include evidence for a warm wet climate on early Mars, volatiles on Earth and on Mars, CO2 adsorption on palagonite and its implications for Martian regolith partitioning, and the effect of spatial resolution on interpretations of Martian subsurface volatiles. Consideration is given to high resolution observations of rampart craters, ring furrows in highland terrains, the interannual variability of the south polar cap, telescopic observations of the north polar cap and circumpolar clouds, and dynamical modeling of a planetary wave polar warming mechanism.

Variability and Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Observational and Modeling Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roads, John; Oglesby, Robert; Marshall, Susan; Robertson, Franklin R.

2002-01-01

The overall goal of this project is to increase our understanding of seasonal to interannual variability and predictability of atmosphere-land interactions. The project objectives are to: 1. Document the low frequency variability in land surface features and associated water and energy cycles from general circulation models (GCMs), observations and reanalysis products. 2. Determine what relatively wet and dry years have in common on a region-by-region basis and then examine the physical mechanisms that may account for a significant portion of the variability. 3. Develop GCM experiments to examine the hypothesis that better knowledge of the land surface enhances long range predictability. This investigation is aimed at evaluating and predicting seasonal to interannual variability for selected regions emphasizing the role of land-atmosphere interactions. Of particular interest are the relationships between large, regional and local scales and how they interact to account for seasonal and interannual variability, including extreme events such as droughts and floods. North and South America, including the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Continental International Project (GEWEX GCIP), MacKenzie, and LBA basins, are currently being emphasized. We plan to ultimately generalize and synthesize to other land regions across the globe, especially those pertinent to other GEWEX projects.

Effects of lakes and reservoirs on annual river nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment export in agricultural and forested landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powers, Stephen M.; Robertson, Dale M.; Stanley, Emily H.

2014-01-01

Recently, effects of lakes and reservoirs on river nutrient export have been incorporated into landscape biogeochemical models. Because annual export varies with precipitation, there is a need to examine the biogeochemical role of lakes and reservoirs over time frames that incorporate interannual variability in precipitation. We examined long-term (~20 years) time series of river export (annual mass yield, Y, and flow-weighted mean annual concentration, C) for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and total suspended sediment (TSS) from 54 catchments in Wisconsin, USA. Catchments were classified as small agricultural, large agricultural, and forested by use of a cluster analysis, and these varied in lentic coverage (percentage of catchment lake or reservoir water that was connected to river network). Mean annual export and interannual variability (CV) of export (for both Y and C) were higher in agricultural catchments relative to forested catchments for TP, TN, and TSS. In both agricultural and forested settings, mean and maximum annual TN yields were lower in the presence of lakes and reservoirs, suggesting lentic denitrification or N burial. There was also evidence of long-term lentic TP and TSS retention, especially when viewed in terms of maximum annual yield, suggesting sedimentation during high loading years. Lentic catchments had lower interannual variability in export. For TP and TSS, interannual variability in mass yield was often >50% higher than interannual variability in water yield, whereas TN variability more closely followed water (discharge) variability. Our results indicate that long-term mass export through rivers depends on interacting terrestrial, aquatic, and meteorological factors in which the presence of lakes and reservoirs can reduce the magnitude of export, stabilize interannual variability in export, as well as introduce export time lags.

Spatiotemporal patterns of evapotranspiration in response to multiple environmental factors simulated by the Community Land Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Thornton, Peter E

In this study, spatial and temporal patterns of evapotranspiration (ET) over the period of 1982-2008 are investigated and attributed to multiple environmental factors using the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4). Our results show that CLM4 captures the spatial distribution and interannual variability of ET well when compared to observation-based estimates derived from the FLUXNET network of eddy covariance towers using the model tree ensembles (MTE) approach. We find that climate trends and variability dominate predicted variability in ET. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration also plays an important role in modulating the trend of predicted ET over most land areas, andmore » functions as the dominant factor controlling ET changes over North America, South America and Asia regions. Compared to the effect of climate change and CO2 concentration, the roles of other factors such as nitrogen deposition, land use change and aerosol deposition are less pronounced and regionally dependent. For example, the aerosol deposition contribution is the third-most important factor for trends of ET over Europe, while it has the smallest impact on ET trend over other regions. As ET is a dominant component of the terrestrial water cycle, our results suggest that environmental factors like elevated CO2, nitrogen and aerosol depositions, and land use and land cover change, in addition to climate, could have significant impact on future projections of water resources and water cycle dynamics at global and regional scales.« less

Interannual and seasonal variability of water use efficiency in a tropical rainforest: Results from a 9 year eddy flux time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Zheng-Hong; Zhang, Yi-Ping; Deng, Xiao-Bao; Song, Qing-Hai; Liu, Wen-Jie; Deng, Yun; Tang, Jian-Wei; Liao, Zhi-Yong; Zhao, Jun-Fu; Song, Liang; Yang, Lian-Yan

2015-01-01

used a continuous 9 year (2003-2011) eddy flux time series with 30 min resolution to examine water use efficiency in a tropical rainforest and determine its environmental controls. The multiyear mean water use efficiency (Wue) of this rainforest was 3.16 ± 0.33 gC per kg H2O, which is close to that of boreal forests, but higher than subtropical forests, and lower than temperate forests. The water vapor deficit (VPD) had a strong impact on instantaneous Wue, in the manner predicted by stomatal optimization theory. At the seasonal scale, temperature was the dominant controller of Wue. The negative correlation between temperature and Wue was probably caused by high continuous photosynthesis during low-temperature periods. The VPD did not correlate with Wue at the interannual scale. No interannual trend was detected in Wue or inherent water use efficiency (Wei), either annually or seasonally. The fact that no increasing trend of Wei was found in the studied tropical rainforest, along with other evidence of CO2 stimulation in tropical rainforests, requires special attention and data validation. There was no significant difference between Wue during a drought and the 9 year mean values in the forest we studied, but we found that dry season transpiration (Tr) was consistently lower during the drought compared to the mean values. Finally, whether Wue increases or decreases during a drought is determined by the drought sensitivity of gross primary production (GPP).

Ocean acidification state in western Antarctic surface waters: drivers and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattsdotter Björk, M.; Fransson, A.; Chierici, M.

2013-05-01

Each December during four years from 2006 to 2010, the surface water carbonate system was measured and investigated in the Amundsen Sea and Ross Sea, western Antarctica as part of the Oden Southern Ocean expeditions (OSO). The I/B Oden started in Punta Arenas in Chile and sailed southwest, passing through different regimes such as, the marginal/seasonal ice zone, fronts, coastal shelves, and polynyas. Discrete surface water was sampled underway for analysis of total alkalinity (AT), total dissolved inorganic carbon (CT) and pH. Two of these parameters were used together with sea-surface temperature (SST), and salinity to obtain a full description of the surface water carbonate system, including pH in situ and calcium carbonate saturation state of aragonite (ΩAr) and calcite (ΩCa). Multivariate analysis was used to investigate interannual variability and the major controls (sea-ice concentration, SST, salinity and chlorophyll a) on the variability in the carbonate system and Ω. This analysis showed that SST and chlorophyll a were the major drivers of the Ω variability in both the Amundsen and Ross seas. In 2007, the sea-ice edge was located further south and the area of the open polynya was relatively small compared to 2010. We found the lowest pH in situ (7.932) and Ω = 1 values in the sea-ice zone and in the coastal Amundsen Sea, nearby marine out flowing glaciers. In 2010, the sea-ice coverage was the largest and the areas of the open polynyas were the largest for the whole period. This year we found the lowest salinity and AT, coinciding with highest chl a. This implies that the highest ΩAr in 2010 was likely an effect of biological CO2 drawdown, which out-competed the dilution of carbonate ion concentration due to large melt water volumes. We predict and discuss future Ω values, using our data and reported rates of oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2, suggesting that the Amundsen Sea will become undersaturated with regard to aragonite about 20 yr sooner than predicted by models.

Inter-annual variability of year-round NEE over 18 years, and environmental controls on seasonal patterns at an arctic wet sedge tundra, CMDL Barrow, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalhori, A. A. M.; Oechel, W. C.; Goodrich, J. P.; Gioli, B.; Burba, G. G.; Shen, S. S. P.; Murphy, P.; Zona, D.

2016-12-01

To refine understanding of the total annual carbon balance in the Arctic, it is critical to extend long-term site-level CO2 flux data collection. These data are critical to addressing the environmental controls and processes responsible for temporal variability and seasonal patterns of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE). This dataset represents the longest running eddy covariance tower in the Arctic, which is located in an Alaskan wet sedge tundra ecosystem and is adjacent to the NOAA Climate Monitoring & Diagnostic Laboratory (CMDL). In addition to analyzing the year-to-year controls on NEE and its long-term trends, this work will complement a parallel study of the 40 year record of CO2 concentration measurements from the NOAA Barrow synoptic sampling station. For long-term, retrospective measurements, missing values are unavoidable, resulting from system failure, sensors icing-up during winter, losing network connections due to the harsh conditions, necessary instrument repairs, etc. Therefore, to analyze the annual sums, diurnal patterns, and seasonal vs. annual fluxes, the choice of gap-filling approach is critical and can dominate the magnitude of uncertainties, especially for periods with long gaps (> 1 month). We have applied different gap-filling methods such as artificial neural networks (ANN), and multiple linear regression (MLR) driven by micrometeorological parameters in an effort to minimize the associated uncertainties. Following gap-filling, a stepwise multiple regression against meteorological drivers including average summer PAR, average air and soil temperature, growing season length, duration of the zero curtain, growing degree days (GDD), date of snow melt, date of freeze up, and length of the summer was applied to determine the parameters that best explain the magnitude and sign of NEE in different seasons. These statistical analyses show that growing degree days were strongly correlated with summer NEE, which increased with higher GDD (greater carbon sink). Inter-annual NEE was particularly sensitive to dry conditions in this wet sedge tundra. However, we found that growing season NEE has significantly increased since early 2000, due primarily to increases in CO2 uptake during the initial spring thaw period and the June-August growing season.

Global atmospheric carbon budget: results from an ensemble of atmospheric CO2 inversions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peylin, P.; Law, R. M.; Gurney, K. R.; Chevallier, F.; Jacobson, A. R.; Maki, T.; Niwa, Y.; Patra, P. K.; Peters, W.; Rayner, P. J.; Rödenbeck, C.; van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T.; Zhang, X.

2013-10-01

Atmospheric CO2 inversions estimate surface carbon fluxes from an optimal fit to atmospheric CO2 measurements, usually including prior constraints on the flux estimates. Eleven sets of carbon flux estimates are compared, generated by different inversions systems that vary in their inversions methods, choice of atmospheric data, transport model and prior information. The inversions were run for at least 5 yr in the period between 1990 and 2010. Mean fluxes for 2001-2004, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and trends are compared for the tropics and northern and southern extra-tropics, and separately for land and ocean. Some continental/basin-scale subdivisions are also considered where the atmospheric network is denser. Four-year mean fluxes are reasonably consistent across inversions at global/latitudinal scale, with a large total (land plus ocean) carbon uptake in the north (-3.4 Pg C yr-1 (±0.5 Pg C yr-1 standard deviation), with slightly more uptake over land than over ocean), a significant although more variable source over the tropics (1.6 ± 0.9 Pg C yr-1) and a compensatory sink of similar magnitude in the south (-1.4 ± 0.5 Pg C yr-1) corresponding mainly to an ocean sink. Largest differences across inversions occur in the balance between tropical land sources and southern land sinks. Interannual variability (IAV) in carbon fluxes is larger for land than ocean regions (standard deviation around 1.06 versus 0.33 Pg C yr-1 for the 1996-2007 period), with much higher consistency among the inversions for the land. While the tropical land explains most of the IAV (standard deviation ~ 0.65 Pg C yr-1), the northern and southern land also contribute (standard deviation ~ 0.39 Pg C yr-1). Most inversions tend to indicate an increase of the northern land carbon uptake from late 1990s to 2008 (around 0.1 Pg C yr-1, predominantly in North Asia. The mean seasonal cycle appears to be well constrained by the atmospheric data over the northern land (at the continental scale), but still highly dependent on the prior flux seasonality over the ocean. Finally we provide recommendations to interpret the regional fluxes, along with the uncertainty estimates.

Climate mode links to atmospheric carbon monoxide over fire regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchholz, R. R.; Hammerling, D.; Worden, H. M.; Monks, S. A.; Edwards, D. P.; Deeter, M. N.; Emmons, L. K.

2017-12-01

Fire is a strong contributor to variability in atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO), particularly for the Southern Hemisphere and tropics. The magnitude of emissions, such as CO, from biomass burning are related to climate through both the availability and dryness of fuel. We investigate this link between CO and climate using satellite measured CO and climate indices. Interannual variability in satellite-measured CO is determined for the time period covering 2001-2016. We use MOPITT total column retrievals and focus on biomass burning regions of the Southern Hemisphere and tropics. In each of the regions, data driven relationships are determined between CO and climate indices for the climate modes: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); the Tropical Southern Atlantic (TSA); and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Step-wise forward and backward regression combined with the Bayesian Information Criterion is used to select the best predictive model from combinations of lagged indices. We find evidence for the importance of first-order interaction terms of the climate modes when explaining CO variability. Generally, over 50% of the variability can be explained, with over 70% for the Maritime Southeast Asia and North Australasia regions. To help interpret variability, we draw on the chemistry-climate model CAM-chem, which provides information on source contributions and the relative influence of emissions and meteorology. Our results have implications for applications such as air quality forecasting and verifying climate-chemistry models.

Impact of climate, CO2 and land use on terrestrial carbon and water fluxes in China based on a multi-model analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, B.; Xie, Z.

2017-12-01

Climate change and anthropogenic activities have been exerting profound influences on ecosystem function and processes, including tightly coupled terrestrial carbon and water cycles. However, their relative contributions of the key controlling factors, e.g., climate, CO2 fertilization, land use and land cover change (LULCC), on spatial-temporal patterns of terrestrial carbon and water fluxes in China are still not well understood due to the lack of ecosystem-level flux observations and uncertainties in single terrestrial biosphere model (TBM). In the present study, we quantified the effect of climate, CO2, and LULCC on terrestrial carbon and water fluxes in China using multi-model simulations for their inter-annual variability (IAV), seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) and long-term trend during the past five decades (1961-2010). In addition, their relative contributions to the temporal variations of gross primary productivity (GPP), net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and evapotranspiration (ET) were investigated through factorial experiments. Finally, the discussions about the inter-model differences and model uncertainties were presented.

Interannual climatic variation mediates elevated CO2 and O3 effects on forest growth

Treesearch

Mark E. Kubiske; Vanessa A. Quinn; Warren E. Heilman; Evan P. McDonald; Paula E. Marquardt; Ron M. Teclaw; Alexander L. Friend; David F. Karnosky

2006-01-01

We analyzed growth data from model aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) forest ecosystems grown in elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide ([CO2]; 518?LL-1) and ozone concentrations ([O3]; 1.5 x background of 30-40 nL L-1 during daylight hours) for 7 years using...

Impact of interannual variability (1979-1986) of transport and temperature on ozone as computed using a two-dimensional photochemical model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, Charles H.; Douglass, Anne R.; Chandra, Sushil; Stolarski, Richard S.; Rosenfield, Joan E.; Kaye, Jack A.

1991-01-01

Values of the monthly mean heating rates and the residual circulation characteristics were calculated using NMC data for temperature and the solar backscattered UV ozone for the period between 1979 and 1986. The results were used in a two-dimensional photochemical model in order to examine the effects of temperature and residual circulation on the interannual variability of ozone. It was found that the calculated total ozone was more sensitive to variations in interannual residual circulation than in the interannual temperature. The magnitude of the modeled ozone variability was found to be similar to the observed variability, but the observed and modeled year-to-year deviations were, for the most part, uncorrelated, due to the fact that the model did not account for most of the QBO forcing and for some of the observed tropospheric changes.

Carbon cycle responses of semi-arid ecosystems to positive asymmetry in rainfall.

PubMed

Haverd, Vanessa; Ahlström, Anders; Smith, Benjamin; Canadell, Josep G

2017-02-01

Recent evidence shows that warm semi-arid ecosystems are playing a disproportionate role in the interannual variability and greening trend of the global carbon cycle given their mean lower productivity when compared with other biomes (Ahlström et al. 2015 Science, 348, 895). Using multiple observations (land-atmosphere fluxes, biomass, streamflow and remotely sensed vegetation cover) and two state-of-the-art biospheric models, we show that climate variability and extremes lead to positive or negative responses in the biosphere, depending on vegetation type. We find Australia to be a global hot spot for variability, with semi-arid ecosystems in that country exhibiting increased carbon uptake due to both asymmetry in the interannual distribution of rainfall (extrinsic forcing), and asymmetry in the response of gross primary production (GPP) to rainfall change (intrinsic response). The latter is attributable to the pulse-response behaviour of the drought-adapted biota of these systems, a response that is estimated to be as much as half of that from the CO 2 fertilization effect during 1990-2013. Mesic ecosystems, lacking drought-adapted species, did not show an intrinsic asymmetric response. Our findings suggest that a future more variable climate will induce large but contrasting ecosystem responses, differing among biomes globally, independent of changes in mean precipitation alone. The most significant changes are occurring in the extensive arid and semi-arid regions, and we suggest that the reported increased carbon uptake in response to asymmetric responses might be contributing to the observed greening trends there. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sensitivity of Temperate Desert Steppe Carbon Exchange to Seasonal Droughts and Precipitation Variations in Inner Mongolia, China

PubMed Central

Yang, Fulin; Zhou, Guangsheng

2013-01-01

Arid grassland ecosystems have significant interannual variation in carbon exchange; however, it is unclear how environmental factors influence carbon exchange in different hydrological years. In this study, the eddy covariance technique was used to investigate the seasonal and interannual variability of CO2 flux over a temperate desert steppe in Inner Mongolia, China from 2008 to 2010. The amounts and times of precipitation varied significantly throughout the study period. The precipitation in 2009 (186.4 mm) was close to the long-term average (183.9±47.6 mm), while the precipitation in 2008 (136.3 mm) and 2010 (141.3 mm) was approximately a quarter below the long-term average. The temperate desert steppe showed carbon neutrality for atmospheric CO2 throughout the study period, with a net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE) of −7.2, −22.9, and 26.0 g C m−2 yr−1 in 2008, 2009, and 2010, not significantly different from zero. The ecosystem gained more carbon in 2009 compared to other two relatively dry years, while there was significant difference in carbon uptake between 2008 and 2010, although both years recorded similar annual precipitation. The results suggest that summer precipitation is a key factor determining annual NEE. The apparent quantum yield and saturation value of NEE (NEEsat) and the temperature sensitivity coefficient of ecosystem respiration (Reco) exhibited significant variations. The values of NEEsat were −2.6, −2.9, and −1.4 µmol CO2 m−2 s−1 in 2008, 2009, and 2010, respectively. Drought suppressed both the gross primary production (GPP) and Reco, and the drought sensitivity of GPP was greater than that of Reco. The soil water content sensitivity of GPP was high during the dry year of 2008 with limited soil moisture availability. Our results suggest the carbon balance of this temperate desert steppe was not only sensitive to total annual precipitation, but also to its seasonal distribution. PMID:23393576

Assessing Canada's Forest Carbon Sinks from 1901 TO 2008 BY Combining Inventory with Climate Data (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J. M.; Wu, C.; Gonsamo, A.; Kurz, W.; Hember, R.; Price, D. T.; Boisvenue, C.; Zhang, F.; Chang, K.

2013-12-01

The forest carbon cycle is not only controlled by climate, tree species and site conditions, but also by disturbance affecting the biomass and age of forest stands. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian forest sector (CBM-CFS3) calculates the complete forest carbon cycle by combining forest inventory data on forest species, biomass and stand age with empirical yield information and statistics on forest disturbances, management and land-use change. It is used for national reporting and climate policy purposes. The Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon model (InTEC) is driven by remotely-sensed vegetation parameters (forest type, leaf area index, clumping index) and fire scar, soil and climate data and simulates forest growth and the carbon cycle as a function of stand age using a process-based approach. Gridded forest biomass, stand age and disturbance data based on forest inventory are also used as inputs to InTEC. Efforts are being made to enhance the CBM-CFS3's capacity to assess the impacts of global change on the forest carbon budget by utilizing InTEC process modeling methodology. For this purpose, InTEC is first implemented on 3432 permanent sampling plots in coastal and interior BC, and it is found that climate warming explained 70% and 75% of forest growth enhancement over the period from 1956 to 2001 in coastal and interior BC, respectively, and the remainder is attributed to CO2 and nitrogen fertilization effects. The growth enhancement, in terms of the increase in the stemwood accumulation rate after adjusting for the stand age effect, is about 24% for both areas over the same period. To assess the impact of climate change on the forest carbon cycle across Canada, polygon-based CBM and gridded InTEC results are aggregated to 60 reconciliation units (RU), and their interannual variabilities over the period from 1990 to 2008 are compared in each RU. CBM results show interannual variability in response to forest disturbance, while InTEC results show larger interannual variability because it is affected by both disturbance and climate. The impact of climate at the RU level is generally positive (increased sink) due to warming, but sometimes negative due to water stress. Averaged over Canada, climate warming induced a longer growing season by about one week from 1901 to 2008, enhancing the annual forest carbon sink by about 42×30 TgC y-1 over the period from 1990 to 2008, while CO2 and nitrogen fertilization effects each also contributed about the same amount to Canada's forest carbon sink.

Large natural pH, CO2 and O2 fluctuations in a temperate tidal salt marsh on diel, seasonal, and interannual time scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baumann, Hannes; Wallace, Ryan; Tagliaferri, Tristen N.; Gobler, Christopher J.

2014-01-01

Coastal marine organisms experience dynamic pH and dissolved oxygen (DO) conditions in their natural habitats, which may impact their susceptibility to long-term anthropogenic changes. Robust characterizations of all temporal scales of natural pH and DO fluctuations in different marine habitats are needed; however, appropriate time series of pH and DO are still scarce. We used multiyear (2008–2012), high-frequency (6 min) monitoring data to quantify diel, seasonal, and interannual scales of pH and DO variability in a productive, temperate tidal salt marsh (Flax Pond, Long Island, US). pHNBS and DO showed strong and similar seasonal patterns, with average (minimum) conditions declining from 8.2 (8.1) and 12.5 (11.4) mg l−1 at the end of winter to 7.6 (7.2) and 6.3 (2.8) mg l−1 in late summer, respectively. Concomitantly, average diel fluctuations increased from 0.22 and 2.2 mg l−1 (February) to 0.74 and 6.5 mg l−1 (August), respectively. Diel patterns were modulated by tides and time of day, eliciting the most extreme minima when low tides aligned with the end of the night. Simultaneous in situ pCO2 measurements showed striking fluctuations between ∼330 and ∼1,200 (early May), ∼2,200 (mid June), and ∼4,000 μatm (end of July) within single tidal cycles. These patterns also indicate that the marsh’s strong net heterotrophy influences its adjacent estuary by ‘outwelling’ acidified and hypoxic water during ebb tides. Our analyses emphasize the coupled and fluctuating nature of pH and DO conditions in productive coastal and estuarine environments, which have yet to be adequately represented by experiments.

1996-2007 Interannual Spatio-Temporal Variability in Snowmelt in Two Montane Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jepsen, S. M.; Molotch, N. P.; Williams, M. W.; Rittger, K. E.; Sickman, J. O.

2010-12-01

Snowmelt is a primary water resource for urban/agricultural centers and ecosystems near mountain regions. Stream chemistry from montane catchments is controlled by the flowpaths of water from snowmelt and the timing and duration of snow coverage. A process level understanding of the variability in these processes requires an understanding of the effect of changing climate and anthropogenic loading on spatio-temporal snowmelt patterns. With this as our objective, we applied a snow reconstruction model (SRM) to two well-studied montane watersheds, Tokopah Basin (TOK), California and Green Lake 4 Valley (GLV), Colorado, to examine interannual variability in the timing and location of snowmelt in response to variable climate conditions during the period from 1996 to 2007. The reconstruction model back solves for snowmelt by combining surface energy fluxes, inferred from meteorological data, with sequences of melt season snow images derived from satellite data (i.e., snowmelt depletion curves). The SRM explained 84% of the observed interannual variability in maximum watershed SWE in TOK, with errors ranging from -23 to +27% for the different years. For GLV4, the SRM explained 61% of the interannual variability, with errors ranging from -37 to +34%. In GLV4, interannual variability in snowmelt timing is a factor of four greater than the variability in streamflow timing, unlike in TOK where the ratio is nearly 1:1. We attribute this difference primarily to differences in the magnitude of the turbulent fluxes and the hydrogeology of the two study areas.

Biogeochemical modelling of dissolved oxygen in a changing ocean.

PubMed

Andrews, Oliver; Buitenhuis, Erik; Le Quéré, Corinne; Suntharalingam, Parvadha

2017-09-13

Secular decreases in dissolved oxygen concentration have been observed within the tropical oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) and at mid- to high latitudes over the last approximately 50 years. Earth system model projections indicate that a reduction in the oxygen inventory of the global ocean, termed ocean deoxygenation, is a likely consequence of on-going anthropogenic warming. Current models are, however, unable to consistently reproduce the observed trends and variability of recent decades, particularly within the established tropical OMZs. Here, we conduct a series of targeted hindcast model simulations using a state-of-the-art global ocean biogeochemistry model in order to explore and review biases in model distributions of oceanic oxygen. We show that the largest magnitude of uncertainty is entrained into ocean oxygen response patterns due to model parametrization of p CO 2 -sensitive C : N ratios in carbon fixation and imposed atmospheric forcing data. Inclusion of a p CO 2 -sensitive C : N ratio drives historical oxygen depletion within the ocean interior due to increased organic carbon export and subsequent remineralization. Atmospheric forcing is shown to influence simulated interannual variability in ocean oxygen, particularly due to differences in imposed variability of wind stress and heat fluxes.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Biogeochemical modelling of dissolved oxygen in a changing ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, Oliver; Buitenhuis, Erik; Le Quéré, Corinne; Suntharalingam, Parvadha

2017-08-01

Secular decreases in dissolved oxygen concentration have been observed within the tropical oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) and at mid- to high latitudes over the last approximately 50 years. Earth system model projections indicate that a reduction in the oxygen inventory of the global ocean, termed ocean deoxygenation, is a likely consequence of on-going anthropogenic warming. Current models are, however, unable to consistently reproduce the observed trends and variability of recent decades, particularly within the established tropical OMZs. Here, we conduct a series of targeted hindcast model simulations using a state-of-the-art global ocean biogeochemistry model in order to explore and review biases in model distributions of oceanic oxygen. We show that the largest magnitude of uncertainty is entrained into ocean oxygen response patterns due to model parametrization of pCO2-sensitive C : N ratios in carbon fixation and imposed atmospheric forcing data. Inclusion of a pCO2-sensitive C : N ratio drives historical oxygen depletion within the ocean interior due to increased organic carbon export and subsequent remineralization. Atmospheric forcing is shown to influence simulated interannual variability in ocean oxygen, particularly due to differences in imposed variability of wind stress and heat fluxes. This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'.

Understanding the recent changes in the Southern Ocean carbon cycle: A multidisciplinary approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manizza, M.; Kahru, M.; Menemenlis, D.; Nevison, C. D.; Mitchell, B. G.; Keeling, R. F.

2016-12-01

The Southern Ocean represents a key area of the global ocean for the uptake of the CO2 originating from fossil fuels emissions. In these waters, cold temperatures combined with high rates of biological production drive the carbon uptake that accounts for about one-third of the global ocean uptake.Recent studies showed that changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index, mainly a proxy of the intensity of westerly winds, had a significant impact on the temporal variability of the CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean. In order to shed light on this problem we propose to use both satellite-derived estimates of ocean productivity and carbon export in combinations of ocean physical and biogeochemical state estimates focusing on the 2006-2013 period. While the estimates of carbon fixation and export based on remote sensing will provide key information on the spatial and temporal variations of the biological carbon pump, the ocean state estimates will provide additional information on physical and carbon cycle processes, including the air-sea CO2 fluxes of the Southern Ocean in the 2006-2013 period where model solutions have been optimized.These physical estimates will be used to force an ocean biogeochemical model (ECCO2-Darwin) that will compute the CO2 uptake for each year. The physical model, forced with optimized atmospheric forcing, aims to realistically simulate interannual ocean climate variability that drives changes in both physical and biogeochemical processes ultimately impacting the carbon uptake of the Southern Ocean, and potentially responding to the SAM index variations.Although in this study great emphasis is given to the role of physical climate variations at driving the CO2 uptake of these polar waters, we will integrate model results with estimates from remote sensing techniques to better understand role of the biological carbon pump and its variability potentially responding to the SAM index changes.

Shifts in coral reef biogeochemistry and resulting acidification linked to offshore productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeakel, Kiley L.; Andersson, Andreas J.; Bates, Nicholas R.; Noyes, Timothy J.; Collins, Andrew; Garley, Rebecca

2015-11-01

Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) has acidified open-ocean surface waters by 0.1 pH units since preindustrial times. Despite unequivocal evidence of ocean acidification (OA) via open-ocean measurements for the past several decades, it has yet to be documented in near-shore and coral reef environments. A lack of long-term measurements from these environments restricts our understanding of the natural variability and controls of seawater CO2-carbonate chemistry and biogeochemistry, which is essential to make accurate predictions on the effects of future OA on coral reefs. Here, in a 5-y study of the Bermuda coral reef, we show evidence that variations in reef biogeochemical processes drive interannual changes in seawater pH and Ωaragonite that are partly controlled by offshore processes. Rapid acidification events driven by shifts toward increasing net calcification and net heterotrophy were observed during the summers of 2010 and 2011, with the frequency and extent of such events corresponding to increased offshore productivity. These events also coincided with a negative winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, which historically has been associated with extensive offshore mixing and greater primary productivity at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site. Our results reveal that coral reefs undergo natural interannual events of rapid acidification due to shifts in reef biogeochemical processes that may be linked to offshore productivity and ultimately controlled by larger-scale climatic and oceanographic processes.

Shifts in coral reef biogeochemistry and resulting acidification linked to offshore productivity.

PubMed

Yeakel, Kiley L; Andersson, Andreas J; Bates, Nicholas R; Noyes, Timothy J; Collins, Andrew; Garley, Rebecca

2015-11-24

Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) has acidified open-ocean surface waters by 0.1 pH units since preindustrial times. Despite unequivocal evidence of ocean acidification (OA) via open-ocean measurements for the past several decades, it has yet to be documented in near-shore and coral reef environments. A lack of long-term measurements from these environments restricts our understanding of the natural variability and controls of seawater CO2-carbonate chemistry and biogeochemistry, which is essential to make accurate predictions on the effects of future OA on coral reefs. Here, in a 5-y study of the Bermuda coral reef, we show evidence that variations in reef biogeochemical processes drive interannual changes in seawater pH and Ωaragonite that are partly controlled by offshore processes. Rapid acidification events driven by shifts toward increasing net calcification and net heterotrophy were observed during the summers of 2010 and 2011, with the frequency and extent of such events corresponding to increased offshore productivity. These events also coincided with a negative winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, which historically has been associated with extensive offshore mixing and greater primary productivity at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site. Our results reveal that coral reefs undergo natural interannual events of rapid acidification due to shifts in reef biogeochemical processes that may be linked to offshore productivity and ultimately controlled by larger-scale climatic and oceanographic processes.

Shifts in coral reef biogeochemistry and resulting acidification linked to offshore productivity

PubMed Central

Yeakel, Kiley L.; Andersson, Andreas J.; Bates, Nicholas R.; Noyes, Timothy J.; Collins, Andrew; Garley, Rebecca

2015-01-01

Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) has acidified open-ocean surface waters by 0.1 pH units since preindustrial times. Despite unequivocal evidence of ocean acidification (OA) via open-ocean measurements for the past several decades, it has yet to be documented in near-shore and coral reef environments. A lack of long-term measurements from these environments restricts our understanding of the natural variability and controls of seawater CO2-carbonate chemistry and biogeochemistry, which is essential to make accurate predictions on the effects of future OA on coral reefs. Here, in a 5-y study of the Bermuda coral reef, we show evidence that variations in reef biogeochemical processes drive interannual changes in seawater pH and Ωaragonite that are partly controlled by offshore processes. Rapid acidification events driven by shifts toward increasing net calcification and net heterotrophy were observed during the summers of 2010 and 2011, with the frequency and extent of such events corresponding to increased offshore productivity. These events also coincided with a negative winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, which historically has been associated with extensive offshore mixing and greater primary productivity at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site. Our results reveal that coral reefs undergo natural interannual events of rapid acidification due to shifts in reef biogeochemical processes that may be linked to offshore productivity and ultimately controlled by larger-scale climatic and oceanographic processes. PMID:26553977

Spatial and temporal variability of interhemispheric transport times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xiaokang; Yang, Huang; Waugh, Darryn W.; Orbe, Clara; Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

2018-05-01

The seasonal and interannual variability of transport times from the northern midlatitude surface into the Southern Hemisphere is examined using simulations of three idealized age tracers: an ideal age tracer that yields the mean transit time from northern midlatitudes and two tracers with uniform 50- and 5-day decay. For all tracers the largest seasonal and interannual variability occurs near the surface within the tropics and is generally closely coupled to movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). There are, however, notable differences in variability between the different tracers. The largest seasonal and interannual variability in the mean age is generally confined to latitudes spanning the ITCZ, with very weak variability in the southern extratropics. In contrast, for tracers subject to spatially uniform exponential loss the peak variability tends to be south of the ITCZ, and there is a smaller contrast between tropical and extratropical variability. These differences in variability occur because the distribution of transit times from northern midlatitudes is very broad and tracers with more rapid loss are more sensitive to changes in fast transit times than the mean age tracer. These simulations suggest that the seasonal-interannual variability in the southern extratropics of trace gases with predominantly NH midlatitude sources may differ depending on the gases' chemical lifetimes.

MECHANISMS OF CONVECTION-INDUCED MODULATION OF PASSIVE TRACER INTERHEMISPHERIC TRANSPORT INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY

EPA Science Inventory

Interannual variations of tropical convection impact atmospheric circulation and influence year-to-year variations of the transport of trace constituents in the troposphere. This study examines how two modes of convective variability-anomalous intensification and meridional disp...

Characterization And Partitioning Of CH4 And CO2 Eddy Flux Data Measured at NGEE-Arctic Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dengel, S.; Chafe, O.; Curtis, J. B.; Biraud, S.; Torn, M. S.; Wullschleger, S. D.

2017-12-01

The high latitudes are experiencing rapid warming with permafrost ecosystems being highly vulnerable to this change. Since the advancement in Eddy Covariance (EC) measurements, the number of high latitude sites measuring greenhouse gases and energy (CO2, CH4 and H2O) fluxes is steadily increasing, with new sites being established each year. Data from these sites are not only valuable for annual carbon budget calculations, but also vital to the modeling community for improving their predictions of emission rates and trends. CH4 flux measurements are not as straightforward as CO2 fluxes. They tend to be less predictable or as easily interpretable as CO2 fluxes. Understanding CH4 emission patterns are often challenging. Moreover, gas flux fluctuations are spatially and temporally diverse, and in many cases event-based. An improvement in understanding would also contribute to improvements in the fidelity of model predictions. These rely on having high quality data, and thus will entail developing new QA/QC and gap-filling methods for Arctic systems, in particularly for CH4. Contributing to these challenges is the limited number of ancillary measurements carried out at many sites and the lack of standardized data processing, QA/QC, and gap-filling procedures, in particular for CH4. CO2, CH4, and energy flux measurements are ongoing at, both NGEE-Arctic/AmeriFlux, US-NGB (Arctic coastal plain), and US-NGC (subarctic tussock tundra) sites. The sites, with underlying continuous permafrost, show a high degree of inter-annual and seasonal variability in CH4 fluxes. In order to interpret this variability, we apply a variety of models, such as footprint characterization, generalized additive models, as well as artificial neural networks, in an attempt to decipher these diverse fluxes, patterns and events.

Sensitivity of regional forest carbon budgets to continuous and stochastic climate change pressures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, B. N.; Desai, A. R.; Scheller, R. M.

2010-12-01

Climate change is expected to impact forest-atmosphere carbon budgets through three processes: 1. Increased disturbance rates, including fires, mortality due to pest outbreaks, and severe storms 2. Changes in patterns of inter-annual variability, related to increased incidence of severe droughts and defoliating insect outbreaks 3. Continuous changes in forest productivity and respiration, related to increases in mean temperature, growing season length, and CO2 fertilization While the importance of these climate change effects in future regional carbon budgets has been established, quantitative characterization of the relative sensitivity of forested landscapes to these different types of pressures is needed. We present a model- and- data-based approach to understanding the sensitivity of forested landscapes to climate change pressures. Eddy-covariance and biometric measurements from forests in the northern United States were used to constrain two forest landscape models. The first, LandNEP, uses a prescribed functional form for the evolution of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) over the age of a forested grid cell, which is reset following a disturbance event. This model was used for investigating the basic statistical properties of a simple landscape’s responses to climate change pressures. The second model, LANDIS-II, includes different tree species and models forest biomass accumulation and succession, allowing us to investigate the effects of more complex forest processes such as species change and carbon pool accumulation on landscape responses to climate change effects. We tested the sensitivity of forested landscapes to these three types of climate change pressures by applying ensemble perturbations of random disturbance rates, distribution functions of inter-annual variability, and maximum potential carbon uptake rates, in the two models. We find that landscape-scale net carbon exchange responds linearly to continuous changes in potential carbon uptake and inter-annual variability, while responses to stochastic changes are non-linear and become more important at shorter mean disturbance intervals. These results provide insight on how to better parameterize coupled carbon-climate models to more realistically simulate feedbacks between forests and the atmosphere.

Contrasting carbon cycle responses of the tropical continents to the 2015-2016 El Niño.

PubMed

Liu, Junjie; Bowman, Kevin W; Schimel, David S; Parazoo, Nicolas C; Jiang, Zhe; Lee, Meemong; Bloom, A Anthony; Wunch, Debra; Frankenberg, Christian; Sun, Ying; O'Dell, Christopher W; Gurney, Kevin R; Menemenlis, Dimitris; Gierach, Michelle; Crisp, David; Eldering, Annmarie

2017-10-13

The 2015-2016 El Niño led to historically high temperatures and low precipitation over the tropics, while the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) was the largest on record. Here we quantify the response of tropical net biosphere exchange, gross primary production, biomass burning, and respiration to these climate anomalies by assimilating column CO 2 , solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, and carbon monoxide observations from multiple satellites. Relative to the 2011 La Niña, the pantropical biosphere released 2.5 ± 0.34 gigatons more carbon into the atmosphere in 2015, consisting of approximately even contributions from three tropical continents but dominated by diverse carbon exchange processes. The heterogeneity of the carbon-exchange processes indicated here challenges previous studies that suggested that a single dominant process determines carbon cycle interannual variability. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Effect of Interannual Variability on the Ocean Acidification-induced Habitat Restriction of the Humboldt Current System.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franco, A. C.; Gruber, N.; Munnich, M.

2016-02-01

The Humboldt Current System (HCS) is one of the most productive ecosystems in the world. This high productivity is supported by a large input of nutrients from the subsurface layers to the surface due to year-round upwelling. However, upwelling also supplies waters with low pH and low aragonite saturation state potentially affecting many organisms, especially those that calcify. The influence, extent and source of upwelled water varies substantially on interannual timescales in association with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, accentuating productivity during La Niña events and dampening it during El Niño, altering the dynamics of the whole ecosystem. On top of this natural variability, the continuing acidification of the upper ocean in response to raising atmospheric CO2 may decrease pH further and increase the volume of water corrosive to aragonite in this region, leading to a progressively smaller suitable habitat for sensitive organisms. Here we use an eddy-resolving basin-scale ocean model that covers the whole Pacific Ocean with higher resolution near the coast off South America ( 6 km) to investigate the role of ENSO events on low aragonite saturation episodes and productivity variations. We compare 2 simulations: a hindcast simulation that spans the last 30 years and a future scenario that represents year 2090 (following IPCC's "business-as-usual" scenario). We found that in the region off Peru, the sole effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 to 840 matm shoals the annual average aragonite saturation depth to 30 m, creating a year round presence of aragonite undersaturated water in the euphotic zone. We then contrast the effect on primary productivity and the aragonite saturation state of at least eight El Niño and eight La Niña episodes that have been reported for the past 30 years, in an attempt to answer the question: does habitat availability under future ocean acidification will resemble a pervasive La Niña-like state?

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes from three contrasting evergreen forests: The role of forest dynamics and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sierra, C.A.; Loescher, H.W.; Harmon, M.E.; Richardson, A.D.; Hollinger, D.Y.; Perakis, S.S.

2009-01-01

Interannual variation of carbon fluxes can be attributed to a number of biotic and abiotic controls that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Type and frequency of disturbance, forest dynamics, and climate regimes are important sources of variability. Assessing the variability of carbon fluxes from these specific sources can enhance the interpretation of past and current observations. Being able to separate the variability caused by forest dynamics from that induced by climate will also give us the ability to determine if the current observed carbon fluxes are within an expected range or whether the ecosystem is undergoing unexpected change. Sources of interannual variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes from three evergreen ecosystems, a tropical, a temperate coniferous, and a boreal forest, were explored using the simulation model STANDCARB. We identified key processes that introduced variation in annual fluxes, but their relative importance differed among the ecosystems studied. In the tropical site, intrinsic forest dynamics contributed ?? 30% of the total variation in annual carbon fluxes. In the temperate and boreal sites, where many forest processes occur over longer temporal scales than those at the tropical site, climate controlled more of the variation among annual fluxes. These results suggest that climate-related variability affects the rates of carbon exchange differently among sites. Simulations in which temperature, precipitation, and radiation varied from year to year (based on historical records of climate variation) had less net carbon stores than simulations in which these variables were held constant (based on historical records of monthly average climate), a result caused by the functional relationship between temperature and respiration. This suggests that, under a more variable temperature regime, large respiratory pulses may become more frequent and high enough to cause a reduction in ecosystem carbon stores. Our results also show that the variation of annual carbon fluxes poses an important challenge in our ability to determine whether an ecosystem is a source, a sink, or is neutral in regard to CO2 at longer timescales. In simulations where climate change negatively affected ecosystem carbon stores, there was a 20% chance of committing Type II error, even with 20 years of sequential data. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Towards understanding the variability in biospheric CO2 fluxes: using FTIR spectrometry and a chemical transport model to investigate the sources and sinks of carbonyl sulfide and its link to CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Deutscher, N. M.; Palm, M.; Warneke, T.; Notholt, J.; Baker, I.; Berry, J.; Suntharalingam, P.; Jones, N.; Mahieu, E.; Lejeune, B.; Campbell, J. E.; Wolf, A.; Kremser, S.

2015-09-01

Understanding carbon dioxide (CO2) biospheric processes is of great importance because the terrestrial exchange drives the seasonal and inter-annual variability of CO2 in the atmosphere. Atmospheric inversions based on CO2 concentration measurements alone can only determine net biosphere fluxes, but not differentiate between photosynthesis (uptake) and respiration (production). Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) could provide an important additional constraint: it is also taken up by plants during photosynthesis but not emitted during respiration, and therefore is a potential mean to differentiate between these processes. Solar absorption Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR) spectrometry allows for the retrievals of the atmospheric concentrations of both CO2 and OCS from measured solar absorption spectra. Here, we investigate co-located and quasi-simultaneous FTIR measurements of OCS and CO2 performed at three selected sites located in the Northern Hemisphere. These measurements are compared to simulations of OCS and CO2 using a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). The OCS simulations are driven by different land biospheric fluxes to reproduce the seasonality of the measurements. Increasing the plant uptake of Kettle et al. (2002a) by a factor of three resulted in the best comparison with FTIR measurements. However, there are still discrepancies in the latitudinal distribution when comparing with HIPPO (HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations) data spanning both hemispheres. The coupled biospheric fluxes of OCS and CO2 from the simple biosphere model (SiB) are used in the study and compared to measurements. The CO2 simulation with SiB fluxes agrees with the measurements well, while the OCS simulation reproduced a weaker drawdown than FTIR measurements at selected sites, and a smaller latitudinal gradient in the Northern Hemisphere during growing season. An offset in the timing of the seasonal cycle minimum between SiB simulation and measurements is also seen. Using OCS as a photosynthesis proxy can help to understand how the biospheric processes are reproduced in models and to further understand the carbon cycle in the real world.

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Evapotranspiration in Response to Multiple Environmental Factors Simulated by the Community Land Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Thornton, P.

Spatiotemporal patterns of evapotranspiration (ET) over the period from 1982 to 2008 are investigated and attributed to multiple environmental factors using the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4). Our results show that CLM4 captures the spatial distribution and interannual variability of ET well when compared to observation-based estimates. We find that climate dominates the predicted variability in ET. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration also plays an important role in modulating the trend of predicted ET over most land areas, and replaces climate to function as the dominant factor controlling ET changes over the North America, South America and Asia regions. Comparedmore » to the effect of climate and CO2 concentration, the roles of other factors such as nitrogen deposition, land use change and aerosol deposition are less pronounced and regionally dependent. The aerosol deposition contribution is the third most important factor for trends of ET over Europe, while it has the smallest impact over other regions. As ET is a dominant component of the terrestrial water cycle, our results suggest that environmental factors like elevated CO2, nitrogen and aerosol depositions, and land use change, in addition to climate, could have significant impact on future projections of water resources and water cycle dynamics at global and regional scales.« less

The Potential for Predicting Precipitation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Timescales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, R. D.

1999-01-01

The ability to predict precipitation several months in advance would have a significant impact on water resource management. This talk provides an overview of a project aimed at developing this prediction capability. NASA's Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) will generate seasonal-to-interannual sea surface temperature predictions through detailed ocean circulation modeling and will then translate these SST forecasts into forecasts of continental precipitation through the application of an atmospheric general circulation model and a "SVAT"-type land surface model. As part of the process, ocean variables (e.g., height) and land variables (e.g., soil moisture) will be updated regularly via data assimilation. The overview will include a discussion of the variability inherent in such a modeling system and will provide some quantitative estimates of the absolute upper limits of seasonal-to-interannual precipitation predictability.

Carbon Cycle Model Linkage Project (CCMLP): Evaluating Biogeochemical Process Models with Atmospheric Measurements and Field Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimann, M.; Prentice, I. C.; Foley, J.; Hickler, T.; Kicklighter, D. W.; McGuire, A. D.; Melillo, J. M.; Ramankutty, N.; Sitch, S.

2001-12-01

Models of biophysical and biogeochemical proceses are being used -either offline or in coupled climate-carbon cycle (C4) models-to assess climate- and CO2-induced feedbacks on atmospheric CO2. Observations of atmospheric CO2 concentration, and supplementary tracers including O2 concentrations and isotopes, offer unique opportunities to evaluate the large-scale behaviour of models. Global patterns, temporal trends, and interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 concentration and its seasonal cycle provide crucial benchmarks for simulations of regionally-integrated net ecosystem exchange; flux measurements by eddy correlation allow a far more demanding model test at the ecosystem scale than conventional indicators, such as measurements of annual net primary production; and large-scale manipulations, such as the Duke Forest Free Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE) experiment, give a standard to evaluate modelled phenomena such as ecosystem-level CO2 fertilization. Model runs including historical changes of CO2, climate and land use allow comparison with regional-scale monthly CO2 balances as inferred from atmospheric measurements. Such comparisons are providing grounds for some confidence in current models, while pointing to processes that may still be inadequately treated. Current plans focus on (1) continued benchmarking of land process models against flux measurements across ecosystems and experimental findings on the ecosystem-level effects of enhanced CO2, reactive N inputs and temperature; (2) improved representation of land use, forest management and crop metabolism in models; and (3) a strategy for the evaluation of C4 models in a historical observational context.

Modelling global CO2 emissions into the atmosphere from crown, ground, and peat fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, Alexey V.; Mokhov, Igor I.; Chernokulsky, Alexander V.

2015-04-01

The scheme for natural fires implemented in the climate model (CM) developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP RAS) is extended by a module accounting for ground and peat fires. With the IAP RAS CM, the simulations are performed for 1700-2300 in accordance with the CMIP5 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, phase 5) protocol. The modelled present-day burnt area, BA, and the corresponding CO2 emissions into the atmosphere E agree with the GFED-3.1 estimates at most regions. In the 21st century, under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios, the global BA increases by 10-41% depending on scenario, and E increases by 11-39%. Under the mitigation scenario RCP 2.6, both BA and E slightly decrease in the 22nd-23rd centuries. For scenarios RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5, they continue to increase in these two centuries. All these changes are mostly due to changes in natural fires activity in the boreal regions. Ground and peat fires contribute significantly to the total emissions of CO2 from natural fires (20-25% at the global scale depending on scenario and calendar year). Peat fires markedly intensify interannual variability of regional CO2 emissions from natural fires.

Long-term CO2 flux dynamics and soil C stock changes of a drained fen mire under different grassland management practices in Northeast Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Augustin, Juergen; Giebels, Michael; Albiac Borraz, Elisa; Hoffmann, Mathias; Sommer, Michael

2014-05-01

Fen mires, widely distributed in Germany and Northern Europe, contain extreme high amounts of carbon (up to 5000 t C per hectare). For this reason, they play an important role in the global cycle of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). Currently more than 95% of all fen mires in central Europe are drained. Therefore, they are assumed to represent extremely strong sources for CO2,accompanied by a fast reduction of the peat carbon stocks. For a number of reasons it is not possible to overcome this problem by restoration measures like flooding at the most drained fen sites. Moreover, there are till now just few and contradictory information about the contribution of alternative land use forms like grassland extensification on the reduction of the CO2 source function of these organic soils. As a contribution to clearing this deficit, we have ongoingly measured the CO2 and CH4 exchange as well as the changes in C stock on a deeply drained fen mire near the village of Paulinenaue from 2007 till 2012. The measurement sites is located within the so-called Rhin-Havelluch, an 80000 ha shallow paludification mire complex in the northwest of Berlin. The investigation included extensively and intensively used meadows (one cut vs. three cuts) on two soil types with different C stocks (Hemic Rheic Histosol vs. Mollic Gleysol). We used transparent chambers for measuring the CO2 flux net ecosystem exchange (difference between gross primary production and ecosystem respiration) and non-transparent chambers for measuring the CO2 flux ecosystem respiration and the CH4 exchange. Determined soil stock changes based on a C budget approach, including cumulated annual net ecosystem exchange, cumulated CH4 exchange, C export by harvest, and C import by fertilization. All current C fluxes were influenced in a complex way by ground-water level, plant development, land use intensity (cut frequency) and current weather conditions. Averaged over the whole investigation time all combinations of land use intensity and soil types acted as strong CO2 sources and showed high soil C losses (up to 1070 g C m-2 yr-1). There was a tendency of lower soil C losses in case of extensive grassland compared to intensive grassland use (820 vs. 1070 g C m-2 yr-1) and grassland at the Gleysol site compared to the Histosol site (538 vs. 946 g C m-2 yr-1). However, the cumulated C fluxes and the soil C losses are subject to a very strong interannual variability. The actual range varied from 245 to 2092 g C m-2 yr-1 in case of the soil C losses. It can be therefore concluded that only long-term measurements (> 3 years) provides reliable information about the C dynamics of drained fen mires. Due to the high interannual variability, there is a high risk to get largely biased results if only short-term measurements will be done.

Variability in the CO2-carbonic Acid System Parameters Across Coral Reef Settings in Hawaii: Perspectives from Multi-year Records from NOAA/PMEL MAPCO2 Buoys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Carlo, E. H.; Drupp, P. S.; Thompson, R. W.; Mackenzie, F. T.; Muscielewicz, S.; Jones, S. M.; Feely, R. A.; Sabine, C. L.

2012-12-01

A series of MAP-CO2 buoys deployed in the coastal waters of Hawaii have produced multiyear high temporal resolution CO2 records in four different coral reef environments of the island of Oahu, Hawaii. This study is part of an integrated effort to understand the factors that influence the dynamics of CO2-carbonic acid system parameters in waters bathing Pacific high island coral reef ecosystems and subject to differing natural and anthropogenic stresses. The MAP-CO2 buoys are located in backreef, lagoonal, and fringing reef sites, and measure CO2 and O2 in seawater and in the atmosphere. Other sensors on the buoys record physical and biogeochemical parameters (CTD, chl-a, turbidity, pH, nitrate). The buoy records, when combined with data from synoptic spatial sampling, have allowed us to examine the interplay between biological cycles of productivity/respiration and calcification/dissolution and biogeochemical and physical forcing on hourly to inter-annual time scales, including those of land runoff. Our data demonstrate that coral reefs are subject to a wide range of pCO2, both on short and long time scales, and significant differences in the CO2-carbonic acid system dynamics across these various settings. We report that coral communities currently thrive in areas where the concentrations of CO2 can range from extremes as low as 200 ppm to as high as 1000 ppm and can fluctuate by ~500 ppm on any given day. The data provide evidence that net ecosystem calcification currently occurs in the presence of levels of CO2 predicted to occur well into the next century, although these coral reef ecosystems are only exposed to the extremes for short periods of time each day.

Interannual variability of cut-off low systems over the European sector: The role of blocking and the Northern Hemisphere circulation modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieto, R.; Gimeno, L.; de La Torre, L.; Ribera, P.; Barriopedro, D.; García-Herrera, R.; Serrano, A.; Gordillo, A.; Redaño, A.; Lorente, J.

2007-04-01

An earlier developed multidecadal database of Northern Hemisphere cut-off low systems (COLs), covering a 41 years period (from 1958 to 1998) is used to study COLs interannual variability in the European sector (25°-47.5° N, 50° W-40° E) and the major factors controlling it. The study focus on the influence on COLs interannual variability, of larger scale phenomena such as blocking events and other main circulation modes defined over the Euro-Atlantic region. It is shown that there is a very large interannual variability in the COLs occurrence at the annual and seasonal scales, although without significant trends. The influence of larger scale phenomena is seasonal dependent, with the positive phase of the NAO favoring autumn COL development, while winter COL occurrence is mostly related to blocking events. During summer, the season when more COLs occur, no significant influences were found.

Understanding recent eastern Horn of Africa rainfall variability and change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liebmann, Brant; Hoerling, Martin P.; Funk, Christopher C.; Blade, Ileana; Dole, Randall M.; Allured, Dave; Quan, Xiaowei; Eischeid, Jon K.

2014-01-01

The recent upward trend in the October–December wet season is rather weak, however, and its statistical significance is compromised by strong year-to-year fluctuations. October–December eastern Horn rain variability is strongly associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole phenomena on interannual scales, in both model and observations. The interannual October–December correlation between the ensemble-average and observed Horn rainfall 0.87. By comparison, interannual March–May Horn precipitation is only weakly constrained by SST anomalies.

Yearly fluctuations of flower landscape in a Mediterranean scrubland: Consequences for floral resource availability.

PubMed

Flo, Víctor; Bosch, Jordi; Arnan, Xavier; Primante, Clara; Martín González, Ana M; Barril-Graells, Helena; Rodrigo, Anselm

2018-01-01

Species flower production and flowering phenology vary from year to year due to extrinsic factors. Inter-annual variability in flowering patterns may have important consequences for attractiveness to pollinators, and ultimately, plant reproductive output. To understand the consequences of flowering pattern variability, a community approach is necessary because pollinator flower choice is highly dependent on flower context. Our objectives were: 1) To quantify yearly variability in flower density and phenology; 2) To evaluate whether changes in flowering patterns result in significant changes in pollen/nectar composition. We monitored weekly flowering patterns in a Mediterranean scrubland community (23 species) over 8 years. Floral resource availability was estimated based on field measures of pollen and nectar production per flower. We analysed inter-annual variation in flowering phenology (duration and date of peak bloom) and flower production, and inter-annual and monthly variability in flower, pollen and nectar species composition. We also investigated potential phylogenetic effects on inter-annual variability of flowering patterns. We found dramatic variation in yearly flower production both at the species and community levels. There was also substantial variation in flowering phenology. Importantly, yearly fluctuations were far from synchronous across species, and resulted in significant changes in floral resources availability and composition at the community level. Changes were especially pronounced late in the season, at a time when flowers are scarce and pollinator visitation rates are particularly high. We discuss the consequences of our findings for pollinator visitation and plant reproductive success in the current scenario of climate change.

Yearly fluctuations of flower landscape in a Mediterranean scrubland: Consequences for floral resource availability

PubMed Central

Primante, Clara; Martín González, Ana M.; Barril-Graells, Helena

2018-01-01

Species flower production and flowering phenology vary from year to year due to extrinsic factors. Inter-annual variability in flowering patterns may have important consequences for attractiveness to pollinators, and ultimately, plant reproductive output. To understand the consequences of flowering pattern variability, a community approach is necessary because pollinator flower choice is highly dependent on flower context. Our objectives were: 1) To quantify yearly variability in flower density and phenology; 2) To evaluate whether changes in flowering patterns result in significant changes in pollen/nectar composition. We monitored weekly flowering patterns in a Mediterranean scrubland community (23 species) over 8 years. Floral resource availability was estimated based on field measures of pollen and nectar production per flower. We analysed inter-annual variation in flowering phenology (duration and date of peak bloom) and flower production, and inter-annual and monthly variability in flower, pollen and nectar species composition. We also investigated potential phylogenetic effects on inter-annual variability of flowering patterns. We found dramatic variation in yearly flower production both at the species and community levels. There was also substantial variation in flowering phenology. Importantly, yearly fluctuations were far from synchronous across species, and resulted in significant changes in floral resources availability and composition at the community level. Changes were especially pronounced late in the season, at a time when flowers are scarce and pollinator visitation rates are particularly high. We discuss the consequences of our findings for pollinator visitation and plant reproductive success in the current scenario of climate change. PMID:29346453

Inconsistencies of interannual variability and trends in long-term satellite leaf area index products.

PubMed

Jiang, Chongya; Ryu, Youngryel; Fang, Hongliang; Myneni, Ranga; Claverie, Martin; Zhu, Zaichun

2017-10-01

Understanding the long-term performance of global satellite leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global change research. However, few effort has been devoted to evaluating the long-term time-series consistencies of LAI products. This study compared four long-term LAI products (GLASS, GLOBMAP, LAI3g, and TCDR) in terms of trends, interannual variabilities, and uncertainty variations from 1982 through 2011. This study also used four ancillary LAI products (GEOV1, MERIS, MODIS C5, and MODIS C6) from 2003 through 2011 to help clarify the performances of the four long-term LAI products. In general, there were marked discrepancies between the four long-term LAI products. During the pre-MODIS period (1982-1999), both linear trends and interannual variabilities of global mean LAI followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. The GLASS linear trend and interannual variability were almost 4.5 times those of GLOBMAP. During the overlap period (2003-2011), GLASS and GLOBMAP exhibited a decreasing trend, TCDR no trend, and LAI3g an increasing trend. GEOV1, MERIS, and MODIS C6 also exhibited an increasing trend, but to a much smaller extent than that from LAI3g. During both periods, the R 2 of detrended anomalies between the four long-term LAI products was smaller than 0.4 for most regions. Interannual variabilities of the four long-term LAI products were considerably different over the two periods, and the differences followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. Uncertainty variations quantified by a collocation error model followed the same order. Our results indicate that the four long-term LAI products were neither intraconsistent over time nor interconsistent with each other. These inconsistencies may be due to NOAA satellite orbit changes and MODIS sensor degradation. Caution should be used in the interpretation of global changes derived from the four long-term LAI products. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Summertime land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate—Part I: Past changes and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamae, Youichi; Watanabe, Masahiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Shiogama, Hideo

2014-11-01

Land-sea surface air temperature (SAT) contrast, an index of tropospheric thermodynamic structure and dynamical circulation, has shown a significant increase in recent decades over East Asia during the boreal summer. In Part I of this two-part paper, observational data and the results of transient warming experiments conducted using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed to examine changes in land-sea thermal contrast and the associated atmospheric circulation over East Asia from the past to the future. The interannual variability of the land-sea SAT contrast over the Far East for 1950-2012 was found to be tightly coupled with a characteristic tripolar pattern of tropospheric circulation over East Asia, which manifests as anticyclonic anomalies over the Okhotsk Sea and around the Philippines, and a cyclonic anomaly over Japan during a positive phase, and vice versa. In response to CO2 increase, the cold northeasterly winds off the east coast of northern Japan and the East Asian rainband were strengthened with the circulation pattern well projected on the observed interannual variability. These results are commonly found in GCMs regardless of future forcing scenarios, indicating the robustness of the East Asian climate response to global warming. The physical mechanisms responsible for the increase of the land-sea contrast are examined in Part II.

Brief Communication: Upper Air Relaxation in RACMO2 Significantly Improves Modelled Interannual Surface Mass Balance Variability in Antarctica

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

van de Berg, W. J.; Medley, B.

2016-01-01

The Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2) has been a powerful tool for improving surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from GCMs or reanalyses. However, new yearly SMB observations for West Antarctica show that the modelled interannual variability in SMB is poorly simulated by RACMO2, in contrast to ERA-Interim, which resolves this variability well. In an attempt to remedy RACMO2 performance, we included additional upper-air relaxation (UAR) in RACMO2. With UAR, the correlation to observations is similar for RACMO2 and ERA-Interim. The spatial SMB patterns and ice-sheet-integrated SMB modelled using UAR remain very similar to the estimates of RACMO2 without UAR. We only observe an upstream smoothing of precipitation in regions with very steep topography like the Antarctic Peninsula. We conclude that UAR is a useful improvement for regional climate model simulations, although results in regions with steep topography should be treated with care.

Spatial and temporal variability of greenhouse gas emissions from a small and shallow temperate lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Praetzel, Leandra; Schmiedeskamp, Marcel; Broder, Tanja; Hüttemann, Caroline; Jansen, Laura; Metzelder, Ulrike; Wallis, Ronya; Knorr, Klaus-Holger; Blodau, Christian

2017-04-01

Small inland waters (< 1 km2) have recently been discovered as significant sources and sinks in the global carbon cycle because they cover larger areas than previously assumed and exhibit a higher metabolic activity than larger lakes. They are further expected to be susceptible to changing climate conditions. So far, little is known about the spatial and temporal variability of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions and in-lake dynamics of CH4 production and oxidation in small, epilimnetic lakes in the temperate zone. Of particular interest is the potential occurrence of "hot spots" and "hot moments" that could contribute significantly to total emissions. To address this knowledge gap, we determined CO2 and CH4 emissions and dynamics to identify their controlling environmental factors in a polymictic small (1.4 ha) and shallow (max. depth approx. 1.5 m) crater lake ("Windsborn") in the Eifel uplands in south-west Germany. As Lake Windsborn has a small catchment area (8 ha) and no surficial inflows, it serves well as a model system for the identification of factors and processes controlling emissions. In 2015, 2016 and 2017 we measured CO2 and CH4 gas fluxes with different techniques across the sediment/water and water/atmosphere interface. Atmospheric exchange was measured using mini-chambers equipped with CO2 sensors and with an infra-red greenhouse gas analyzer for high temporal resolution flux measurements. Ebullition of CH4 was quantified with funnel traps. Sediment properties were examined using pore-water peepers. All measurements were carried out along a transect covering both littoral and central parts of the lake. Moreover, a weather station on a floating platform in the center of the lake recorded meteorological data as well as CO2 concentration in different depths of the water column. So far, Lake Windsborn seems to be a source for both CO2 and CH4 on an annual scale. CO2 emissions generally increased from spring to summer. Even though CO2 uptake could be observed during some periods in spring and fall, CO2 emissions in the summer exceeded the uptake. CO2 and CH4 emissions also appeared to be spatially variable between littoral areas and the inner lake. Shallow areas turned out to be "hot spots" of CO2 emissions whereas CH4 emissions were - against our expectations - highest in the center of the lake. Moreover, CH4 ebullition contributed substantially to total CH4 emissions. Our results show the importance of spatially and temporally highly resolved long-term measurements of greenhouse gas emissions and of potential controlling factors to address diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual variability as well as possible feedbacks to climate change.

Interannual Variations in Earth's Low-Degree Gravity Field and the Connections With Geophysical/Climatic Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Benjamin F.; Cox, Christopher M.

2004-01-01

Long-wavelength time-variable gravity recently derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) analysis have focused to a large extent on the effects of the recent (since 1998) large anomalous change in J2, or the Earth's oblateness, and the potential causes. However, it is relatively more difficult to determine whether there are corresponding signals in the shorter wavelength zonal harmonics from the existing SLR-derived time variable gravity results, although it appears that geophysical fluid mass transport is being observed. For example, the recovered J3 time series shows remarkable agreement with NCEP-derived estimates of atmospheric gravity variations. Likewise, some of the non-zonal spherical harmonic components have significant interannual signal that appears to be related to mass transport. The non-zonal degree-2 components show reasonable temporal correlation with atmospheric signals, as well as climatic effects such as El Nino Southern Oscillation. We will present recent updates on the J2 evolution, as well as a look at other low-degree components of the interannual variations of gravity, complete through degree 4. We will examine the possible geophysical and climatic causes of these low-degree time-variable gravity related to oceanic and hydrological mass transports, for example some anomalous but prominent signals found in the extratropic Pacific ocean related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

On the predictability of the interannual behaviour of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its relationship with El Nino

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sperber, K.R., LLNL

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability at intraseasonal timescales. It displays substantial interannual variability in intensity which may have important implications for the predictability of the coupled system. The reasons for this interannual variability are not understood. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the interannual behavior of the MJO is related to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, particularly El Nino, and hence whether it is predictable. The interannual behavior of the MJO has been diagnosed initially in the 40-year NCEP/ NCAR Reanalysis. The results suggest that prior to the mid-1970s themore » activity of the MJO was consistently lower than during the latter part of the record. This may be related to either inadequacies in the data coverage, particularly over the tropical Indian Ocean prior to the introduction of satellite observations, or to the real effects of a decadal timescale warming in the tropical SSTs. The teleconnection patterns between interannual variations in MJO activity and SST show only a weak, barely significant, influence of El Nino in which the MJO is more active during the cold phase. As well as the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, a 4-member ensemble of 45 year integrations with the Hadley Centre climate model (HadAM2a), forced by observed SSTs for 1949-93, has been used to investigate the relationship between MJO activity and SST. HadAM2a is known to give a reasonable simulation of the MJO and the extended record provided by this ensemble of integrations allows a more robust investigation of the predictability of MJO activity than was possible with the 40-year NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The results have shown that, for the uncoupled system, with the atmosphere being driven by imposed SSTS, there is no reproducibility for the activity of the MJO from year to year. The interannual behavior of the MJO is not controlled by the phase of El Nino and would appear to be chaotic in character. However, the model results have confirmed the low frequency, decadal timescale variability of MJO activity seen in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The activity of the MJO is consistently lower in all realizations prior to the mid 1970s, suggesting that the MJO may become more active as tropical SSTs become warmer. This result may have implications for the effects of global warming on the coupled tropical atmosphere-ocean system.« less

Interannual to Decadal Variability of Ocean Evaporation as Viewed from Climate Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Roberts, Jason B.; Wang, Hailan

2015-01-01

Questions we'll address: Given the uncoupled framework of "AMIP" (Atmosphere Model Inter-comparison Project) experiments, what can they tell us regarding evaporation variability? Do Reduced Observations Reanalyses (RedObs) using Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SFC) pressure (and wind) provide a more realistic picture of evaporation variability? What signals of interannual variability (e.g. El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) and decadal variability (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)) are detectable with this hierarchy of evaporation estimates?

The Role of Low-Level, Terrain-Induced Jets in Rainfall Variability in Tigris Euphrates Headwaters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Evans, Jason; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2017-01-01

Rainfall variability in the Tigris Euphrates headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, driven by the NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2), has been implemented to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle East. The extended simulation period (1983 - 2013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability, and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R-2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R-2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRFs ability to resolve two low-level, terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in R-2: one parallel to the western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the east Turkish highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days, when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50 of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation.

The Role of Low-Level Terrain-Induced Jets in Rainfall Variability in Tigris-Euphrates Headwaters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Evans, Jason; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2017-01-01

Rainfall variability in the Tigris-Euphrates headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, driven by the NCEPDOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2), has been implemented to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle East. The extended simulation period (19832013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability, and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R-2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R-2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRFs ability to resolve two low-level, terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in R-2: one parallel to the western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the east Turkish highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days: when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50 of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation.

Simulation of climatology and Interannual Variability of Spring Persistent Rains by Meteorological Research Institute Model: Impacts of different horizontal resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Puxi; Zhou, Tianjun; Zou, Liwei

2016-04-01

The authors evaluated the performance of Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) AGCM3.2 models in the simulations of climatology and interannual variability of the Spring Persistent Rains (SPR) over southeastern China. The possible impacts of different horizontal resolutions were also investigated based on the experiments with three different horizontal resolutions (i.e., 120, 60, and 20km). The model could reasonably reproduce the main rainfall center over southeastern China in boreal spring under the three different resolutions. In comparison with 120 simulation, it revealed that 60km and 20km simulations show the superiority in simulating rainfall centers anchored by the Nanling-Wuyi Mountains, but overestimate rainfall intensity. Water vapor budget diagnosis showed that, the 60km and 20km simulations tended to overestimate the water vapor convergence over southeastern China, which leads to wet biases. In the aspect of interannual variability of SPR, the model could reasonably reproduce the anomalous lower-tropospheric anticyclone in the western North Pacific (WNPAC) and positive precipitation anomalies over southeastern China in El Niño decaying spring. Compared with the 120km resolution, the large positive biases are substantially reduced in the mid and high resolution models which evidently improve the simulation of horizontal moisture advection in El Niño decaying spring. We highlight the importance of developing high resolution climate model as it could potentially improve the climatology and interannual variability of SPR.

Interannual Variations in Ecosystem Oxidative Ratio in Croplands, Deciduous Forest, Coniferous Forest, and Early Successional Forest Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masiello, C. A.; Hockaday, W. C.; Gallagher, M. E.; Calligan, L.

2009-12-01

Ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) can vary significantly with annual variations in precipitation and temperature. These climate variations can also drive changes in plant carbon allocation patterns. Shifting allocation patterns can lead to variation in net ecosystem biochemical stocks (e.g. kg cellulose, lignin, protein, and lipid/ha), which can in turn lead to shifts in ecosystem oxidative ratio (OR). OR is the molar ratio of O2 released : CO2 fixed during biosynthesis. Major plant biochemicals vary substantially in oxidative ratio, ranging from average organic acid OR values of 0.75 to average lipid OR values of 1.37 (Masiello et al., 2008). OR is a basic property of ecosystem biochemistry, and is also an essential variable needed to constrain the size of the terrestrial biospheric carbon sink (Keeling et al., 1996). OR is commonly assumed to be 1.10 (e.g. Prentice et al., 2001), but small variations in net ecosystem OR can drive large errors in estimates of the size of the terrestrial carbon sink (Randerson et al., 2006). We hypothesized that interannual changes in climate may drive interannual variation in ecosystem OR values. Working at Kellogg Biological Station NSF LTER, we measured the annual average OR of coniferous and deciduous forests, an early successional forest, and croplands under both corn and soy. There are clear distinctions between individual ecosystems (e.g., the soy crops have a higher OR than the corn crops, and the coniferous forests have a higher OR than the deciduous forests), but the ecosystems themselves retained remarkably constant annual OR values between 1998 and 2008.

Interannual Variability of Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) and Asian Summer Monsoon Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, C.; Lau, W. K. M.; Li, Z.

2017-12-01

The Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL), recently discovered from satellite observations, has drawn much attention on the need to study and better understand processes of atmospheric constituents' transportation in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and the variability of the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA). In this paper, based on analysis of 15 years (2001 - 2015) MERRA2 reanalysis data, we have investigated the interaction between the ATAL and monsoon dynamics and aerosol transport processes with respect to the variability of the AMA on interannual and intraseasonal time scales. Here, we present results showing that: (1) during pre- monsoon season, carbonaceous aerosols (CA), dust and carbon monoxide (CO)) accumulate along the southern slope of Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Sichuan Basin of southwestern China. Surface pollutants are lofted up to UTLS by strong vertical convection, advected by the anticyclonic flow within the AMA forming ATAL during peak monsoon season, (2) during strong monsoon years (2001, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2015) the AMA peaks later, with stronger heating over TP and stronger ATAL, compared to weak monsoon years (2002, 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013). Enhanced vertical transport was also found over the top of TP during strong monsoon years, in conjunction with an enlarged and northward-shifted AMA, while near surface region was suppressed because of heavy rainout, (3) inspite of stronger precipitation wash out more dust and are transported to Indo-Gangetic Plain, and from the top of the TP to the UTLS, during peak monsoon season due to the stronger westerlies. (4) spectral analysis of aerosol and monsoon winds, shows that the ATAL can be modulated by UTLS transport processes on monsoon intraseasonal oscillations with strong quasi- biweekly time scales during strong monsoon, and strong 20-30 day quasi-periodicity during weak monsoon years.

Explaining and forecasting interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siam, M. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-05-01

The natural interannual variability in the flow of Nile River had a significant impact on the ancient civilizations and cultures that flourished on the banks of the river. This is evident from stories in the Bible and Koran, and from the numerous Nilometers discovered near ancient temples. Here, we analyze extensive data sets collected during the 20th century and define four modes of natural variability in the flow of Nile River, identifying a new significant potential for improving predictability of floods and droughts. Previous studies have identified a significant teleconnection between the Nile flow and the Eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains about 25% of the interannual variability in the Nile flow. Here, we identify, for the first time, a region in the southern Indian Ocean with similarly strong teleconnection to the Nile flow. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the region (50-80° E and 25-35° S) explains 28% of the interannual variability in the Nile flow. During those years with anomalous SST conditions in both Oceans, we estimate that indices of the SSTs in the Pacific and Indian Oceans can collectively explain up to 84% of the interannual variability in the flow of Nile. Building on these findings, we use classical Bayesian theorem to develop a new hybrid forecasting algorithm that predicts the Nile flow based on global models predictions of indices of the SST in the Eastern Pacific and Southern Indian Oceans.

Estimating California ecosystem carbon change using process model and land cover disturbance data: 1951-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, Jinxun; Vogelmann, James E.; Zhu, Zhiliang; Key, Carl H.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Price, D.T.; Chen, Jing M.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Howard, Stephen M.; Bliss, Norman B.; Jiang, Hong

2011-01-01

Land use change, natural disturbance, and climate change directly alter ecosystem productivity and carbon stock level. The estimation of ecosystem carbon dynamics depends on the quality of land cover change data and the effectiveness of the ecosystem models that represent the vegetation growth processes and disturbance effects. We used the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and a set of 30- to 60-m resolution fire and land cover change data to examine the carbon changes of California's forests, shrublands, and grasslands. Simulation results indicate that during 1951–2000, the net primary productivity (NPP) increased by 7%, from 72.2 to 77.1 Tg C yr−1 (1 teragram = 1012 g), mainly due to CO2 fertilization, since the climate hardly changed during this period. Similarly, heterotrophic respiration increased by 5%, from 69.4 to 73.1 Tg C yr−1, mainly due to increased forest soil carbon and temperature. Net ecosystem production (NEP) was highly variable in the 50-year period but on average equalled 3.0 Tg C yr−1 (total of 149 Tg C). As with NEP, the net biome production (NBP) was also highly variable but averaged −0.55 Tg C yr−1 (total of –27.3 Tg C) because NBP in the 1980s was very low (–5.34 Tg C yr−1). During the study period, a total of 126 Tg carbon were removed by logging and land use change, and 50 Tg carbon were directly removed by wildland fires. For carbon pools, the estimated total living upper canopy (tree) biomass decreased from 928 to 834 Tg C, and the understory (including shrub and grass) biomass increased from 59 to 63 Tg C. Soil carbon and dead biomass carbon increased from 1136 to 1197 Tg C.Our analyses suggest that both natural and human processes have significant influence on the carbon change in California. During 1951–2000, climate interannual variability was the key driving force for the large interannual changes of ecosystem carbon source and sink at the state level, while logging and fire were the dominant driving forces for carbon balances in several specific ecoregions. From a long-term perspective, CO2fertilization plays a key role in maintaining higher NPP. However, our study shows that the increase in C sequestration by CO2 fertilization is largely offset by logging/land use change and wildland fires.

Evidence for a possible modern and mid-Holocene solar influence on climate from Lake Titicaca, South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theissen, K. M.; Dunbar, R. B.

2005-12-01

In tropical regions, there are few paleoclimate archives with the necessary resolution to investigate climate variability at interannual-to-decadal timescales prior to the onset of the instrumental record. Interannual variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented in the instrumental record and the importance of the precessional forcing of millennial variability has been established in studies of tropical paleoclimate records. In contrast, decade-to-century variability is still poorly understood. Here, we examine interannual to decadal variability in the northern Altiplano of South America using digital image analysis of a floating interval of varved sediments of middle Holocene age (~6160-6310 yr BP) from Lake Titicaca. Multi-taper method (MTM) and wavelet frequency-domain analyses were performed on a time series generated from a gray-scaled digital image of the mm-thick laminations. Our results indicate significant power at a decadal periodicity (10-12 years) associated with the Schwabe cycle of solar activity. Frequency-domain analysis also indicates power at 2-2.5 year periodicities associated with ENSO. Similarly, spectral analysis of a 75 year instrumental record of Titicaca lake level shows significant power at both solar and ENSO periodicities. Although both of the examined records are short, our results imply that during both the mid-Holocene and modern times, solar and ENSO variability may have contributed to high frequency climate fluctuations over the northern Altiplano. We suspect that solar influence on large-scale atmospheric circulation features may account for the decadal variability in the mid-Holocene and present-day water balance of the Altiplano.

What can surface measurements of long-lived trace gases tell us about interannual variability in UTLS transport?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, E. A.; Daniel, J. S.; Montzka, S. A.; Portmann, R. W.; Yu, P.; Rosenlof, K. H.; Moore, F. L.

2017-12-01

We use surface measurements of a number of long-lived trace gases, including CFC-11, CFC-12 and N2O, and a 3-box model to estimate the interannual variability of bulk stratospheric transport characteristics. Coherent features among the different surface measurements suggest that there have been periods over the last two decades with significant variability in the amount of stratospheric loss transported downward to the troposphere both globally and between the NH and SH. This is especially apparent around the year 2000 and in the recent period since 2013 when surface measurements suggest an overall slowdown of the transport of stratospheric air to the troposphere as well as a shift towards a relatively stronger stratospheric circulation in the SH compared to the NH. We compare these results to stratospheric satellite measurements, residual circulation estimates and global model simulations to check for consistency. The implications of not accounting for interannual variability in stratospheric loss transported to the surface in emission estimates of long-lived trace gases can be significant, including for those gases monitored by the Montreal Protocol and/or of climatic importance.

Disentangling the effects of climate variability and functional change on ecosystem carbon dynamics using semi-empirical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; van der Linden, L.; Lasslop, G.; Carvalhais, N.; Pilegaard, K.; Beier, C.; Ibrom, A.

2012-04-01

The ecosystem carbon balance is affected by both external climatic forcing (e.g. solar radiation, air temperature and humidity) and internal dynamics in the ecosystem functional properties (e.g. canopy structure, leaf photosynthetic capacity and carbohydrate reserve). In order to understand to what extent and at which temporal scale, climatic variability and functional changes regulated the interannual variation (IAV) in the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE), data-driven analysis and semi-empirical modelling (Lasslop et al. 2010) were performed based on a 13 year NEE record in a temperate deciduous forest (Pilegaard et al 2011, Wu et al. 2012). We found that the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climatic variability was significantly higher at shorter than at longer time scales and changed seasonally. This implied that the changing distribution of climate anomalies during the vegetation period could have stronger impacts on future ecosystem carbon balances than changes in average climate. At the annual time scale, approximately 80% of the interannual variability in NEE was attributed to the variation in the model parameters, indicating the observed IAV in the carbon dynamics at the investigated site was dominated by changes in ecosystem functioning. In general this study showed the need for understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem functional change. The method can be applied at other sites to explore ecosystem behavior across different plant functional types and climate gradients. Incorporating ecosystem functional change into process based models will reduce the uncertainties in long-term predictions of ecosystem carbon balances in global climate change projections. Acknowledgements. This work was supported by the EU FP7 project CARBO-Extreme, the DTU Climate Centre and the Danish national project ECOCLIM (Danish Council for Strategic Research).

Space-borne Chlorophyll Fluorescence, Greenness, Vegetation Models and Interannual Variability of Photosynthetic Activity: Spatio-temporal Patterns, Mechanisms, and Environmental Sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walther, S.; Guanter, L.; Jung, M.; Frankenberg, C.; Sun, Y.; Forkel, M.; Zhang, Y.; Duveiller, G.; Cescatti, A.; Camps-Valls, G.; Köhler, P.

2016-12-01

It is much debated whether respiration or photosynthesis drive net ecosystem productivity andwhich regions contribute strongest to the observed interannual variability (IAV) of the strengthof the land sink. Several studies point to photosynthetic productivity in semi-arid regions as avery important factor influencing atmospheric CO2 variability globally (e.g. Jung et al., 2011;Poulter et al., 2014; Ahlstr ̈ om et al., 2015). Here, we aim at a comprehensive comparison ofthe strength, timing and spatial extent of anomalies of photosynthesis as they are indicated bysatellite observations of greenness, vegetation optical depth, and sun-induced chlorophyll fluo-rescence (SIF). We will compare them to the results of diagnostic, empirical and process-basedvegetation models. Except for the evergreen tropics, the spatio-temporal patterns of monthlydominant vegetation variability are generally consistently shown in semi-arid areas, albeit withdiffering magnitudes between greenness and photosynthesis globally. Relative anomalies (to themean seasonal cycle) are particularly widespread in high northern latitudes. Further researchsteps will include i) the repeated analysis at higher temporal resolution to better refine the dif-ferent time scales of reaction between light-use-efficiency and APAR and between forestedand non-forested ecosystems, ii) investigate on characteristic time scales at which the proxies(dis-)agree and why, iii) study the relative contributions of anomalies in peak and length of thegrowing season to IAV (similar to Xia et al., 2015; Zhou et al., 2016), iv) analyse the proxiesfor possibly differing hydrological sensitivities, and v) vegetation models have long been knownto have very diverse abilities to capture GPP IAV. Our preliminary results confirm this and wewill further study possible limitations and possible ways for improvement of the simulations.

The Role of Global Hydrologic Processes in Interannual and Long-Term Climate Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.

1997-01-01

The earth's climate and its variability is linked inextricably with the presence of water on our planet. El Nino / Southern Oscillation-- the major mode of interannual variability-- is characterized by strong perturbations in oceanic evaporation, tropical rainfall, and radiation. On longer time scales, the major feedback mechanism in CO2-induced global warming is actually that due to increased water vapor holding capacity of the atmosphere. The global hydrologic cycle effects on climate are manifested through influence of cloud and water vapor on energy fluxes at the top of atmosphere and at the surface. Surface moisture anomalies retain the "memory" of past precipitation anomalies and subsequently alter the partitioning of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the surface. At the top of atmosphere, water vapor and cloud perturbations alter the net amount of radiation that the earth's climate system receives. These pervasive linkages between water, radiation, and surface processes present major complexities for observing and modeling climate variations. Major uncertainties in the observations include vertical structure of clouds and water vapor, surface energy balance, and transport of water and heat by wind fields. Modeling climate variability and change on a physical basis requires accurate by simplified submodels of radiation, cloud formation, radiative exchange, surface biophysics, and oceanic energy flux. In the past, we m safely say that being "data poor' has limited our depth of understanding and impeded model validation and improvement. Beginning with pre-EOS data sets, many of these barriers are being removed. EOS platforms with the suite of measurements dedicated to specific science questions are part of our most cost effective path to improved understanding and predictive capability. This talk will highlight some of the major questions confronting global hydrology and the prospects for significant progress afforded by EOS-era measurements.

Soil moisture influenced the interannual variation in temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon mineralization in the Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Guo, S.; Zhao, M.; Du, L.; Li, R.; Jiang, J.; Wang, R.; Li, N.

2015-01-01

Temperature sensitivity of SOC mineralization (Q10) determines how strong the feedback from global warming may be on the atmospheric CO2 concentration, thus understanding the factors influencing the interannual variation in Q10 is important to accurately estimate the local soil carbon cycle. In situ SOC mineralization was measured using an automated CO2 flux system (Li-8100) in long-term bare fallow soil in the Loess Plateau (35° 12' N, 107° 40' E) in Changwu, Shaanxi, China form 2008 to 2013. The results showed that the annual cumulative SOC mineralization ranged from 226 to 298 g C m-2 y-1 (mean =253 g C m-2 y-1; CV =13%), annual Q10 ranged from 1.48 to 1.94 (mean =1.70; CV =10%), and annual soil moisture content ranged from 38.6 to 50.7% WFPS (mean =43.8% WFPS; CV =11%), which were mainly affected by the frequency and distribution of precipitation. Annual Q10 showed a negative quadratic correlation with soil moisture. In conclusion, understanding of the relationships between interannual variation in Q10 of SOC mineralization, soil moisture and precipitation is important to accurately estimate the local carbon cycle, especially under the changing climate.

Influence of high-latitude warming and land-use changes in the early 20th century northern Eurasian CO2 sink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastos, Ana; Peregon, Anna; Gani, Érico A.; Khudyaev, Sergey; Yue, Chao; Li, Wei; Gouveia, Célia M.; Ciais, Philippe

2018-06-01

While the global carbon budget (GCB) is relatively well constrained over the last decades of the 20th century [1], observations and reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 growth rate present large discrepancies during the earlier periods [2]. The large uncertainty in GCB has been attributed to the land biosphere, although it is not clear whether the gaps between observations and reconstructions are mainly because land-surface models (LSMs) underestimate inter-annual to decadal variability in natural ecosystems, or due to inaccuracies in land-use change reconstructions. As Eurasia encompasses about 15% of the terrestrial surface, 20% of the global soil organic carbon pool and constitutes a large CO2 sink, we evaluate the potential contribution of natural and human-driven processes to induce large anomalies in the biospheric CO2 fluxes in the early 20th century. We use an LSM specifically developed for high-latitudes, that correctly simulates Eurasian C-stocks and fluxes from observational records [3], in order to evaluate the sensitivity of the Eurasian sink to the strong high-latitude warming occurring between 1930 and 1950. We show that the LSM with improved high-latitude phenology, hydrology and soil processes, contrary to the group of LSMs in [2], is able to represent enhanced vegetation growth linked to boreal spring warming, consistent with tree-ring time-series [4]. By compiling a dataset of annual agricultural area in the Former Soviet Union that better reflects changes in cropland area linked with socio-economic fluctuations during the early 20th century, we show that land-abadonment during periods of crisis and war may result in reduced CO2 emissions from land-use change (44%–78% lower) detectable at decadal time-scales. Our study points to key processes that may need to be improved in LSMs and LUC datasets in order to better represent decadal variability in the land CO2 sink, and to better constrain the GCB during the pre-observational record.

Interannual rainfall variability and SOM-based circulation classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolski, Piotr; Jack, Christopher; Tadross, Mark; van Aardenne, Lisa; Lennard, Christopher

2018-01-01

Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) based classifications of synoptic circulation patterns are increasingly being used to interpret large-scale drivers of local climate variability, and as part of statistical downscaling methodologies. These applications rely on a basic premise of synoptic climatology, i.e. that local weather is conditioned by the large-scale circulation. While it is clear that this relationship holds in principle, the implications of its implementation through SOM-based classification, particularly at interannual and longer time scales, are not well recognized. Here we use a SOM to understand the interannual synoptic drivers of climate variability at two locations in the winter and summer rainfall regimes of South Africa. We quantify the portion of variance in seasonal rainfall totals that is explained by year to year differences in the synoptic circulation, as schematized by a SOM. We furthermore test how different spatial domain sizes and synoptic variables affect the ability of the SOM to capture the dominant synoptic drivers of interannual rainfall variability. Additionally, we identify systematic synoptic forcing that is not captured by the SOM classification. The results indicate that the frequency of synoptic states, as schematized by a relatively disaggregated SOM (7 × 9) of prognostic atmospheric variables, including specific humidity, air temperature and geostrophic winds, captures only 20-45% of interannual local rainfall variability, and that the residual variance contains a strong systematic component. Utilising a multivariate linear regression framework demonstrates that this residual variance can largely be explained using synoptic variables over a particular location; even though they are used in the development of the SOM their influence, however, diminishes with the size of the SOM spatial domain. The influence of the SOM domain size, the choice of SOM atmospheric variables and grid-point explanatory variables on the levels of explained variance, is consistent with the general understanding of the dominant processes and atmospheric variables that affect rainfall variability at a particular location.

Space-time dynamics of carbon and environmental parameters related to carbon dioxide emissions in the Buor-Khaya Bay and adjacent part of the Laptev Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semiletov, I. P.; Shakhova, N. E.; Pipko, I. I.; Pugach, S. P.; Charkin, A. N.; Dudarev, O. V.; Kosmach, D. A.; Nishino, S.

2013-09-01

This study aims to improve understanding of carbon cycling in the Buor-Khaya Bay (BKB) and adjacent part of the Laptev Sea by studying the inter-annual, seasonal, and meso-scale variability of carbon and related hydrological and biogeochemical parameters in the water, as well as factors controlling carbon dioxide (CO2) emission. Here we present data sets obtained on summer cruises and winter expeditions during 12 yr of investigation. Based on data analysis, we suggest that in the heterotrophic BKB area, input of terrestrially borne organic carbon (OC) varies seasonally and inter-annually and is largely determined by rates of coastal erosion and river discharge. Two different BKB sedimentation regimes were revealed: Type 1 (erosion accumulation) and Type 2 (accumulation). A Type 1 sedimentation regime occurs more often and is believed to be the quantitatively most important mechanism for suspended particular matter (SPM) and particulate organic carbon (POC) delivery to the BKB. The mean SPM concentration observed in the BKB under a Type 1 regime was one order of magnitude greater than the mean concentration of SPM (~ 20 mg L-1) observed along the Lena River stream in summer 2003. Loadings of the BKB water column with particulate material vary by more than a factor of two between the two regimes. Higher partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2), higher concentrations of nutrients, and lower levels of oxygen saturation were observed in the bottom water near the eroded coasts, implying that coastal erosion and subsequent oxidation of eroded organic matter (OM) rather than the Lena River serves as the predominant source of nutrients to the BKB. Atmospheric CO2 fluxes from the sea surface in the BKB vary from 1 to 95 mmol m-2 day-1 and are determined by specific features of hydrology and wind conditions, which change spatially, seasonally, and inter-annually. Mean values of CO2 emission from the shallow Laptev Sea were similar in September 1999 and 2005 (7.2 and 7.8 mmol m-2 day-1, respectively), while the CO2 efflux can be one order lower after a strong storm such as in September 2011. Atmospheric CO2 emissions from a thawed coastal ice complex in the BKB area varied from 9 to 439 mmol m-2 day-1, with the mean value ranged from 75.7 to 101 mmol m-2 day-1 in two years (September 2006 and 2009), suggesting that at the time of observations the eroded coastal area served as a more significant source of CO2 to the atmosphere than the tundra (mean value: 22.7 mmol m-2 day-1) on the neighboring Primorsky coastal plain (September 2006). The observed increase in the Lena River discharge since the 1990s suggests that increased levels of "satellite-derived" annual primary production could be explained by an increasing load of humic acids delivered to shelf water; in this water the color resulting from the presence of CDOM (colored dissolved organic matter) mimics the color resulting from the presence of Chl a when seen from space. Because the BKB area can be employed as an integrator of ongoing changes in the surrounding environment, we suggest that under ongoing changes, more nutrients, products of eroded OC transformation and river transport, will be delivered to the Arctic Ocean with its shrinking ice cover, potentially increasing primary production outside of the shallow East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS). At the same time, because the ESAS is characterized by very low transparency which limits euphotic layer thickness, excessive pCO2 will not be utilized by photosynthesis but will rather be emitted to the atmosphere at increasing rates, affecting regional CO2 balance.

The FOODBANCS project: Introduction and sinking fluxes of organic carbon, chlorophyll- a and phytodetritus on the western Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Craig R.; Mincks, Sarah; DeMaster, David J.

2008-11-01

The impact of the highly seasonal Antarctic primary production cycle on shelf benthic ecosystems remains poorly evaluated. Here we describe a times-series research project on the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) shelf designed to evaluate the seafloor deposition, and subsequent ecological and biogeochemical impacts, of the summer phytoplankton bloom along a transect crossing the Antarctic shelf near Anvers Island. During this project, entitled Food for Benthos on the Antarctic Continental Shelf (FOODBANCS), we deployed replicate sediment traps 150-170 m above the seafloor (total water-column depth of 590 m) on the central shelf from December 1999 to March 2001, recovering trap samples every 3-4 months. In addition, we used a seafloor time-lapse camera system, as well as video surveys conducted at 3-4 months intervals, to monitor the presence and accumulation of phytodetritus at the sediment-water interface. The fluxes of particulate organic carbon and chlorophyll- a into sediment traps (binned over 3-4 month intervals) showed patterns consistent with seasonal variability, with average summer fluxes during the first year exceeding winter fluxes by a factor of ˜2-3. However, inter-annual variability in summer fluxes was even greater than seasonal variability, with 4-10-fold differences in the flux of organic carbon and chlorophyll- a between the summer seasons of 1999-2000 and 2000-2001. Phytodetrital accumulation at the shelf floor also exhibited intense inter-annual variability, with no visible phytodetritus from essentially December 1999 to November 2000, followed by pulsed accumulation of 1-2 cm of phytodetritus over a ˜30,000 km 2 shelf area by March 2001. Comparisons with other studies suggest that the levels of inter-annual variability we observed are typical of the Antarctic shelf over decadal time scales. We conclude that fluxes of particulate organic carbon, chlorophyll- a and phytodetritus to WAP-shelf sediments vary intensely on seasonal to inter-annual time scales, yielding dramatic temporal variability in the flux of food for detritivores to the Antarctic shelf floor.

Variability in the Speed of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation as Observed by Aura/MLS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flury, Thomas; Wu, Dong L.; Read, W. G.

2013-01-01

We use Aura/MLS stratospheric water vapour (H2O) measurements as tracer for dynamics and infer interannual variations in the speed of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) from 2004 to 2011. We correlate one-year time series of H2O in the lower stratosphere at two subsequent pressure levels (68 hPa, approx.18.8 km and 56 hPa, approx 19.9 km at the Equator) and determine the time lag for best correlation. The same calculation is made on the horizontal on the 100 hPa (approx 16.6 km) level by correlating the H2O time series at the Equator with the ones at 40 N and 40 S. From these lag coefficients we derive the vertical and horizontal speeds of the BDC in the tropics and extra-tropics, respectively. We observe a clear interannual variability of the vertical and horizontal branch. The variability reflects signatures of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Our measurements confirm the QBO meridional circulation anomalies and show that the speed variations in the two branches of the BDC are out of phase and fairly well anti-correlated. Maximum ascent rates are found during the QBO easterly phase. We also find that transport of H2O towards the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is on the average two times faster than to the Southern Hemisphere (SH) with a mean speed of 1.15m/s at 100 hPa. Furthermore, the speed towards the NH shows much more interannual variability with an amplitude of about 21% whilst the speed towards the SH varies by only 10 %. An amplitude of 21% is also observed in the variability of the ascent rate at the Equator which is on the average 0.2mm/s.

Interannual variability of the annual cycle of temperature channel-2 msu data over northern hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesouro, M.; Gimeno, L.; de La Torre, L.; Nieto, R.; Añel, J. A.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

The seasonal cycle of the temperature MSU data in the Northern Hemisphere was investigated with the aim of studing interannual variability. Data consist of daily temperatures from the MSU-channel 2 that represent the lower troposphere. The analyzed area was the whole Northern Hemisphere and the studied period the last 23 years. Daily data were adjusted to the following expression for each year: y=a+b*sin(((2*PI)/d)x+c) The amplitude of the wave and the first inflexion point were used as indicators of the seasonal cycle. Results show a positive correlation in high latitudes between the NAO index and the amplitude and a negative one in middle latitudes. Correlations between the NAO index and the first inflexion point were negative for high latitudes regions.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of biogeochemical processes and air-sea CO2 fluxes in the Western English Channel based on two years of FerryBox deployment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrec, P.; Cariou, T.; Latimier, M.; Macé, E.; Morin, P.; Vernet, M.; Bozec, Y.

2014-12-01

From January 2011 to January 2013, a FerryBox system was installed on a Voluntary Observing Ship (VOS), which crossed the Western English Channel (WEC) between Roscoff (France) and Plymouth (UK) up to 3 times a day. The FerryBox continuously measured sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), dissolved oxygen (DO), fluorescence and partial pressure of CO2 (from April 2012) along the ferry track. Sensors were calibrated based on 714 bimonthly surface samplings with precisions of 0.016 for SSS, 3.3 μM for DO, 0.40 μg L- 1 for Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) (based on fluorescence measurements) and 5.2 μatm for pCO2. Over the 2 years of deployment (900 crossings), we reported 9% of data lost due to technical issues and quality checked data was obtained to allow investigation of the dynamics of biogeochemical processes related to air-sea CO2 fluxes in the WEC. Based on this unprecedented high-frequency dataset, the physical structure of the WEC was assessed using SST anomalies and the presence of a thermal front was observed around the latitude 49.5°N, which divided the WEC in two main provinces: the seasonally stratified northern WEC (nWEC) and the all-year well-mixed southern WEC (sWEC). These hydrographical properties strongly influenced the spatial and inter-annual distributions of phytoplankton blooms, which were mainly limited by nutrients and light availability in the nWEC and the sWEC, respectively. Air-sea CO2 fluxes were also highly related to hydrographical properties of the WEC between late April and early September 2012, with the sWEC a weak source of CO2 to the atmosphere of 0.9 mmol m- 2 d- 1, whereas the nWEC acted as a sink for atmospheric CO2 of 6.9 mmol m- 2 d- 1. The study of short time-scale dynamics of air-sea CO2 fluxes revealed that an intense and short (less than 10 days) summer bloom in the nWEC contributed to 29% of the CO2 sink during the productive period, highlighting the necessity for high frequency observations in coastal ecosystems. During the same period in the sWEC, the tidal cycle was the main driver of air-sea CO2 fluxes with a mean difference in pCO2 values between spring and neap tides of + 50 μatm. An extraction of day/night data at 49.90°N showed that the mean day-night differences accounted for 16% of the mean CO2 sink during the 5 months of the study period implying that the diel biological cycle was also significant for air-sea CO2 flux computations. The 2 years of deployment of our FerryBox allowed an excellent survey of the variability of biogeochemical parameters from inter-annual to diurnal time scales and provided new insights into the dynamics of air-sea CO2 fluxes in the contrasted ecosystems of the WEC.

Trend and Variability of China Precipitation in Spring and Summer: Linkage to Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Fanglin; Lau, K.-M.

2004-01-01

Observational records in the past 50 years show an upward trend of boreal-summer precipitation over central eastern China and a downward trend over northern China. During boreal spring, the trend is upward over southeastern China and downward over central eastern China. This study explores the forcing mechanism of these trends in association with the global sea-surface temperature (SST) variations on the interannual and inter-decadal timescales. Results based on Singular Value Decomposition analyses (SVD) show that the interannual variability of China precipitation in boreal spring and summer can be well defined by two centers of actions for each season, which are co-varying with two interannual modes of SSTs. The first SVD modes of precipitation in spring and summer, which are centered in southeastern China and northern China, respectively, are linked to an ENSO-like mode of SSTs. The second SVD modes of precipitation in both seasons are confined to central eastern China, and are primarily linked to SST variations over the warm pool and Indian Ocean. Features of the anomalous 850-hPa winds and 700-Wa geopotential height corresponding to these modes support a physical mechanism that explains the causal links between the modal variations of precipitation and SSTs. On the decadal and longer timescale, similar causal links are found between the same modes of precipitation and SSTs, except for the case of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For this case, while the interannual mode of precipitation is positively correlated with the interannual variations of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean; the inter-decadal mode is negatively correlated with a different SST mode, the North Pacific mode. The later is responsible for the observed downward trend of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For all other cases, both the interannual and inter-decadal variations of precipitation can be explained by the same mode of SSTs. The upward trend of springtime precipitation over southeastern China and downward trend of summertime precipitation over northern China are attributable to the warming trend of the ENSO-like mode. The recent frequent summertime floods over central eastern China are linked to the warming trend of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean.

The role of low-level terrain-induced jets in rainfall variability in Tigris-Euphrates Headwaters

PubMed Central

Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Evans, Jason; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2018-01-01

Rainfall variability in the Tigris-Euphrates Headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, we have implemented the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, driven by NCEP/DOE R2, to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle-East. The extended simulation period (1983–2013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRF’s ability to resolve two low-level terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in NCEP/DOE: one parallel to western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the East Turkish Highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days: when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50% of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation. PMID:29726552

Control of Methane Production and Exchange in Northern Peatlands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crill, Patrick

1997-01-01

This proposal has successfully supported studies that have developed unique long ten-n datasets of methane (CH4) emissions and carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange in order to quantify the controls on CH4 production and exchange especially the linkages to the carbon cycle in northern peatlands. The primary research site has been a small fen in southeastern New Hampshire where a unique multi-year data baseline of CH4 flux measurements was begun (with NASA funding) in 1989. The fen has also been instrumented for continuous hydrological and meteorological observations and year-round porewater sampling. Multiyear datasets of methane flux are very valuable and very rare. Datasets using the same sampling techniques at the same sites are the only way to assess the effect of the integrated ecosystem response to climatological variability. The research has had two basic objectives: 1. To quantify the effect of seasonal and interannual variability on CH4flux. 2. To examine process level controls on methane dynamics.

Validation of China-wide interpolated daily climate variables from 1960 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Wenping; Xu, Bing; Chen, Zhuoqi; Xia, Jiangzhou; Xu, Wenfang; Chen, Yang; Wu, Xiaoxu; Fu, Yang

2015-02-01

Temporally and spatially continuous meteorological variables are increasingly in demand to support many different types of applications related to climate studies. Using measurements from 600 climate stations, a thin-plate spline method was applied to generate daily gridded climate datasets for mean air temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation over China for the period 1961-2011. A comprehensive evaluation of interpolated climate was conducted at 150 independent validation sites. The results showed superior performance for most of the estimated variables. Except for wind speed, determination coefficients ( R 2) varied from 0.65 to 0.90, and interpolations showed high consistency with observations. Most of the estimated climate variables showed relatively consistent accuracy among all seasons according to the root mean square error, R 2, and relative predictive error. The interpolated data correctly predicted the occurrence of daily precipitation at validation sites with an accuracy of 83 %. Moreover, the interpolation data successfully explained the interannual variability trend for the eight meteorological variables at most validation sites. Consistent interannual variability trends were observed at 66-95 % of the sites for the eight meteorological variables. Accuracy in distinguishing extreme weather events differed substantially among the meteorological variables. The interpolated data identified extreme events for the three temperature variables, relative humidity, and sunshine duration with an accuracy ranging from 63 to 77 %. However, for wind speed, air pressure, and precipitation, the interpolation model correctly identified only 41, 48, and 58 % of extreme events, respectively. The validation indicates that the interpolations can be applied with high confidence for the three temperatures variables, as well as relative humidity and sunshine duration based on the performance of these variables in estimating daily variations, interannual variability, and extreme events. Although longitude, latitude, and elevation data are included in the model, additional information, such as topography and cloud cover, should be integrated into the interpolation algorithm to improve performance in estimating wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation.

Factors controlling the interannual variation of 30-60-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianying; Mao, Jiangyu

2018-04-01

The 30-60-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a dominant variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), with its intensity being quantified by intraseasonal standard deviations based on OLR data. The spatial and interannual variations of the BSISO intensity are identified via empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis for the period 1981-2014. The first EOF mode (EOF1) shows a spatially coherent enhancement or suppression of BSISO activity over the entire ASM region, and the interannual variability of this mode is related to the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) contrast between the central-eastern North Pacific (CNP) and tropical Indian Ocean. In contrast, the second mode (EOF2) exhibits a seesaw pattern between the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) and equatorial western Pacific (EWP), with the interannual fluctuation linked with developing ENSO events. During strong years of EOF1 mode, the enhanced low-level westerlies induced by the summer-mean SSTA contrast between the warmer CNP and cooler tropical Indian Ocean tend to form a wetter moisture background over the eastern EIO, which interacts with intraseasonal low-level convergent flows, leading to stronger equatorial eastward propagation. The intensified easterly shear favors stronger northward propagation over the South Asian and Eastern Asian/Western North Pacific sectors, respectively. Opposite situation is for weak years. For interannual variations of EOF2 mode, the seesaw patterns with enhanced BSISO activity over the southeastern EIO while weakened activity over the EWP mostly occur in the La Niña developing summers, but inverse patterns appear in the El Niño developing summers.

Effect of Ocean Interannual Variability on Acoustic Propagation in the Philippine Sea and South China Sea

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

Coronas , 1920). The dominant pattern of interannual variability is the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has two quasi-periodic states...Validation of Wavewatch-III using TOPEX/ Poseidon data. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 21, 1718–1733. Coronas , J., 1920: The climate and weather of the

Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siam, Mohamed S.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2017-04-01

The human population living in the Nile basin countries is projected to double by 2050, approaching one billion. The increase in water demand associated with this burgeoning population will put significant stress on the available water resources. Potential changes in the flow of the Nile River as a result of climate change may further strain this critical situation. Here, we present empirical evidence from observations and consistent projections from climate model simulations suggesting that the standard deviation describing interannual variability of total Nile flow could increase by 50% (+/-35%) (multi-model ensemble mean +/- 1 standard deviation) in the twenty-first century compared to the twentieth century. We attribute the relatively large change in interannual variability of the Nile flow to projected increases in future occurrences of El Niño and La Niña events and to observed teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Nile River flow. Adequacy of current water storage capacity and plans for additional storage capacity in the basin will need to be re-evaluated given the projected enhancement of interannual variability in the future flow of the Nile river.

Interannual variability of physical oceanographic characteristics of Gilbert Bay: A marine protected area in Labrador, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Best, Sara; Lundrigan, Sarah; Demirov, Entcho; Wroblewski, Joe

2011-10-01

Gilbert Bay on the southeast coast of Labrador is the site of the first Marine Protected Area (MPA) established in the subarctic coastal zone of eastern Canada. The MPA was created to conserve a genetically distinctive population of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua. This article presents results from a study of the interannual variability in atmospheric and physical oceanographic characteristics of Gilbert Bay over the period 1949-2006. We describe seasonal and interannual variability of the atmospheric parameters at the sea surface in the bay. The interannual variability of the atmosphere in the Gilbert Bay region is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a recent warming trend in the local climate of coastal Labrador. The related changes in seawater temperature, salinity and sea-ice thickness in winter are simulated with a one-dimensional water column model, the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). A warming Gilbert Bay ecosystem would be favorable for cod growth, but reduced sea-ice formation during the winter months increases the danger of traveling across the bay by snowmobile.

Comparing Global Atmospheric CO2 Flux and Transport Models with Remote Sensing (and Other) Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawa, S. R.; Collatz, G. J.; Pawson, S.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wofsy, S. C.; Andrews, A. E.

2010-01-01

We report recent progress derived from comparison of global CO2 flux and transport models with new remote sensing and other sources of CO2 data including those from satellite. The overall objective of this activity is to improve the process models that represent our understanding of the workings of the atmospheric carbon cycle. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport processes are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, to provide the basic framework for carbon data assimilation, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. Models can also be used to test consistency within and between CO2 data sets under varying geophysical states. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 2000 through 2009. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at 1x1 degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-3), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to remote sensing observations from TCCON, GOSAT, and AIRS as well as relevant in situ observations. Examples of the influence of key process representations are shown from both forward and inverse model comparisons. We find that the model can resolve much of the synoptic, seasonal, and interannual variability in the observations, although reasons for persistent discrepancies in northern hemisphere vegetation uptake are examined. At this time, we do not find any serious shortcomings in the model transport representation, but this is still the subject of close scrutiny. In general, the fidelity of these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of real-time, highly resolved remote sensing and other observations into quantitative analyses that will reduce uncertainty in CO2 fluxes and revolutionize our understanding of the key processes controlling atmospheric CO2 and its evolution with time.

Global structure and composition of the martian atmosphere with SPICAM on Mars express

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertaux, Jean-Loup; Korablev, O.; Fonteyn, D.; Guibert, S.; Chassefière, E.; Lefèvre, F.; Dimarellis, E.; Dubois, J. P.; Hauchecorne, A.; Cabane, M.; Rannou, P.; Levasseur-Regourd, A. C.; Cernogora, G.; Quémerais, E.; Hermans, C.; Kockarts, G.; Lippens, C.; de Maziere, M.; Moreau, D.; Muller, C.; Neefs, E.; Simon, P. C.; Forget, F.; Hourdin, F.; Talagrand, O.; Moroz, V. I.; Rodin, A.; Sandel, B.; Stern, A.

SPectroscopy for the Investigation of the Characteristics of the Atmosphere of Mars (SPICAM) Light, a light-weight (4.7 kg) UV-IR instrument to be flown on Mars Express orbiter, is dedicated to the study of the atmosphere and ionosphere of Mars. A UV spectrometer (118-320 nm, resolution 0.8 nm) is dedicated to nadir viewing, limb viewing and vertical profiling by stellar and solar occultation (3.8 kg). It addresses key issues about ozone, its coupling with H2O, aerosols, atmospheric vertical temperature structure and ionospheric studies. UV observations of the upper atmosphere will allow studies of the ionosphere through the emissions of CO, CO+, and CO2+, and its direct interaction with the solar wind. An IR spectrometer (1.0-1.7 μm, resolution 0.5-1.2 nm) is dedicated primarily to nadir measurements of H2O abundances simultaneously with ozone measured in the UV, and to vertical profiling during solar occultation of H2O, CO2, and aerosols. The SPICAM Light near-IR sensor employs a pioneering technology acousto-optical tunable filter (AOTF), leading to a compact and light design. Overall, SPICAM Light is an ideal candidate for future orbiter studies of Mars, after Mars Express, in order to study the interannual variability of martian atmospheric processes. The potential contribution to a Mars International Reference Atmosphere is clear.

Regional simulation of interannual variability over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, V.; Dirmeyer, P. A.; Kirtman, B. P.; Juang, H.-M. Henry; Kanamitsu, M.

2002-08-01

Three regional climate simulations covering the austral summer season during three contrasting phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle were conducted with the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The simulated interannual variability of precipitation over the Amazon River Basin, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins, and extratropical South America compare reasonably well with observations. The RSM optimally filters the peturbations about a time-varying base field, thereby enhancing the information content of the global NCEP reanalysis. The model is better than the reanalysis in reproducing the observed interannual variability of outgoing longwave radiation at both high frequencies (3-30 days) and intraseasonal (30-60 days) scales. The low-level jet shows a peak in its speed in 1998 and a minimum in the 1999 simulations. The lag correlation of the jet index with convection over various areas in continental South America indicates that the jet induces precipitation over the Pampas region downstream. A detailed moisture budget was conducted over various subregions. This budget reveals that moisture flux convergence determines most of the interannual variability of precipitation over the Amazon Basin, the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the Nordeste region of Brazil. However, both surface evaporation and surface moisture flux convergence were found to be critical in determining the interannual variability of precipitation over the southern Pampas, Gran Chaco area, and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone.

A Bayesian methodological framework for accommodating interannual variability of nutrient loading with the SPARROW model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wellen, Christopher; Arhonditsis, George B.; Labencki, Tanya; Boyd, Duncan

2012-10-01

Regression-type, hybrid empirical/process-based models (e.g., SPARROW, PolFlow) have assumed a prominent role in efforts to estimate the sources and transport of nutrient pollution at river basin scales. However, almost no attempts have been made to explicitly accommodate interannual nutrient loading variability in their structure, despite empirical and theoretical evidence indicating that the associated source/sink processes are quite variable at annual timescales. In this study, we present two methodological approaches to accommodate interannual variability with the Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) nonlinear regression model. The first strategy uses the SPARROW model to estimate a static baseline load and climatic variables (e.g., precipitation) to drive the interannual variability. The second approach allows the source/sink processes within the SPARROW model to vary at annual timescales using dynamic parameter estimation techniques akin to those used in dynamic linear models. Model parameterization is founded upon Bayesian inference techniques that explicitly consider calibration data and model uncertainty. Our case study is the Hamilton Harbor watershed, a mixed agricultural and urban residential area located at the western end of Lake Ontario, Canada. Our analysis suggests that dynamic parameter estimation is the more parsimonious of the two strategies tested and can offer insights into the temporal structural changes associated with watershed functioning. Consistent with empirical and theoretical work, model estimated annual in-stream attenuation rates varied inversely with annual discharge. Estimated phosphorus source areas were concentrated near the receiving water body during years of high in-stream attenuation and dispersed along the main stems of the streams during years of low attenuation, suggesting that nutrient source areas are subject to interannual variability.

Interannual, seasonal, and retrospective analysis of the methane and carbon dioxide budgets of a temperate peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, D. M.; Griffis, T. J.; Noormets, A.; Kolka, R.; Chen, J.

2013-03-01

Three years (2009-2011) of near-continuous methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes were measured with the eddy covariance (EC) technique at a temperate peatland located within the Marcell Experimental Forest, in northern Minnesota, USA. The peatland was a net source of CH4 and a net sink of CO2 in each year with annual carbon budgets of -26.8 (±18.7), -15.5 (±14.8), and -14.6 (±21.5) g C m-2 yr-1 for 2009-2011, respectively. Differences in the seasonal hydrometeorological conditions among the three study years were most pronounced during 2011, which was considerably warmer (+1.3°C) and wetter (+40 mm) than the 30 year average. The annual CH4 budget was +11.8 (±3.1), +12.2 (±3.0), and +24.9 (±5.6) g C m-2 yr-1 for the respective years and accounted for 23%-39% of the annual carbon budget. The larger CH4 emission in 2011 is attributed to significant warming of the peat column coupled with a high water table position throughout the entire growing season. Historical (1991-2011) CH4 emissions were estimated based on long-term hydrometeorological records and functional relationships derived from our 3 year field study. The predicted historical annual CH4 budget ranged from +7.8 to +15.2 (±2.7) g CH4-C m-2 yr-1. Recent (2007-2011) increases in temperature, precipitation, and rising water table at this site suggest that CH4 emissions have been increasing, but were generally greater from 1991 to 1999 when average soil temperature and precipitation were higher than in recent years. The global warming potential (considering CO2 and CH4) for this peatland was calculated based on a 100 year time horizon. In all three study years, the peatland had a net positive radiative forcing on climate and was greatest (+187 g C m-2) in 2011. The interannual variability in CH4 exchange at this site suggests high sensitivity to variations in hydrometeorological conditions.

Comprehensive assessment of dam impacts on flow regimes with consideration of interannual variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongyong; Shao, Quanxi; Zhao, Tongtiegang

2017-09-01

Assessing the impact of human intervention on flow regimes is important in policy making and resource management. Previous impact assessments of dam regulation on flow regimes have focused on long-term average patterns, but interannual variations, which are important characteristics to be considered, have been ignored. In this study, the entire signatures of hydrograph variations of Miyun Reservoir in northern China were described by forty flow regime metrics that incorporate magnitude, variability and frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change for flow events based on a long-term synchronous observation series of inflow and outflow. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were used to reduce the multidimensionality of the metrics and time and to determine impact patterns and their interannual shifts. Statistically significant driving factors of impact pattern variations were identified. We found that dam regulation resulted in four main impact classes on the flow regimes and that the regulated capacity was interannually attenuated from 1973 to 2010. The impact patterns alternated between the highly regulated class with extremely decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency and the slightly regulated class with extremely increasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency from 1973 to 1987 and then stabilized in the latter class from 1988 to 2001. After 2001, the pattern gradually changed from the moderately regulated class with moderately decreasing flow magnitude, extreme variability, and extreme intermittency to the slightly regulated class with slightly decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and no intermittency. Decreasing precipitation and increasing drought were the primary drivers for the interannual variations of the impact patterns, and inflow variability was the most significant factor affecting the patterns, followed by flow event frequency and duration, magnitude, and timing. This study shows that the use of interannual characteristics can help to gain more insight into the impact of dam regulation on flow regimes and will provide important information to scientifically guide the multi-purpose regulation of dams.

Vegetation response to rainfall seasonality and interannual variability in tropical dry forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Silva Souza, R. M.; Souza, E.; Antonino, A.; Montenegro, S.; Porporato, A. M.

2015-12-01

We analyzed the response of tropical dry forests to seasonal and interannual rainfall variability, focusing on the caatinga biome in semi-arid in Northeast Brazil. We selected four sites across a gradient of rainfall amount and seasonality and analyzed daily rainfall and biweekly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the period 2000-2014. The seasonal and interannual rainfall statistics were characterized using recently developed metrics describing duration, location, and intensity of wet season and compared them with those of NDVI time series and modelled soil moisture. A model of NDVI was also developed and forced by different rainfall scenarios (combination amount of rainfall and duration of wet season). The results show that the caatinga tends to have a more stable response characterized by longer and less variable growing seasons (of duration 3.1±0.1 months) compared to the rainfall wet seasons (2.0±0.5 months). Even for more extreme rainfall conditions, the ecosystem shows very little sensitivity to duration of wet season in relation to the amount of rainfall, however the duration of wet season is most evident for wetter sites. This ability of the ecosystem in buffering the interannual variability of rainfall is corroborated by the stability of the centroid location of the growing season compared to the wet season for all sites. The maximal biomass production was observed at intermediate levels of seasonality, suggesting a possible interesting trade-off in the effects of intensity (i.e., amount) and duration of the wet season on vegetation growth.

Challenges in modelling spatiotemporally varying phytoplankton blooms in the Northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sedigh Marvasti, S.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Bidokhti, A. A.; Dunne, J. P.; Ghader, S.

2015-07-01

We examine interannual variability of phytoplankton blooms in northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman. Satellite data (SeaWIFS ocean color) shows two climatological blooms in this region, a wintertime bloom peaking in February and a summertime bloom peaking in September. A pronounced anti-correlation between the AVISO sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and chlorophyll is found during the wintertime bloom. On a regional scale, interannual variability of the wintertime bloom is thus dominated by cyclonic eddies which vary in location from one year to another. These results were compared against the outputs from three different 3-D Earth System models. We show that two coarse (1°) models with the relatively complex biogeochemistry (TOPAZ) capture the annual cycle but neither eddies nor the interannual variability. An eddy-resolving model (GFDL CM2.6) with a simpler biogeochemistry (miniBLING) displays larger interannual variability, but overestimates the wintertime bloom and captures eddy-bloom coupling in the south but not in the north. The southern part of the domain is a region with a much sharper thermocline and nutricline relatively close to the surface, in which eddies modulate diffusive nutrient supply to the surface (a mechanism not previously emphasized in the literature). We suggest that for the model to simulate the observed wintertime blooms within cyclones, it will be necessary to represent this relatively unusual nutrient structure as well as the cyclonic eddies. This is a challenge in the Northern Arabian Sea as it requires capturing the details of the outflow from the Persian Gulf.

Satellite remote sensing data can be used to model marine microbial metabolite turnover

PubMed Central

Larsen, Peter E; Scott, Nicole; Post, Anton F; Field, Dawn; Knight, Rob; Hamada, Yuki; Gilbert, Jack A

2015-01-01

Sampling ecosystems, even at a local scale, at the temporal and spatial resolution necessary to capture natural variability in microbial communities are prohibitively expensive. We extrapolated marine surface microbial community structure and metabolic potential from 72 16S rRNA amplicon and 8 metagenomic observations using remotely sensed environmental parameters to create a system-scale model of marine microbial metabolism for 5904 grid cells (49 km2) in the Western English Chanel, across 3 years of weekly averages. Thirteen environmental variables predicted the relative abundance of 24 bacterial Orders and 1715 unique enzyme-encoding genes that encode turnover of 2893 metabolites. The genes' predicted relative abundance was highly correlated (Pearson Correlation 0.72, P-value <10−6) with their observed relative abundance in sequenced metagenomes. Predictions of the relative turnover (synthesis or consumption) of CO2 were significantly correlated with observed surface CO2 fugacity. The spatial and temporal variation in the predicted relative abundances of genes coding for cyanase, carbon monoxide and malate dehydrogenase were investigated along with the predicted inter-annual variation in relative consumption or production of ∼3000 metabolites forming six significant temporal clusters. These spatiotemporal distributions could possibly be explained by the co-occurrence of anaerobic and aerobic metabolisms associated with localized plankton blooms or sediment resuspension, which facilitate the presence of anaerobic micro-niches. This predictive model provides a general framework for focusing future sampling and experimental design to relate biogeochemical turnover to microbial ecology. PMID:25072414

Satellite remote sensing data can be used to model marine microbial metabolite turnover

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larsen, Peter E.; Scott, Nicole; Post, Anton F.

Sampling ecosystems, even at a local scale, at the temporal and spatial resolution necessary to capture natural variability in microbial communities are prohibitively expensive. We extrapolated marine surface microbial community structure and metabolic potential from 72 16S rRNA amplicon and 8 metagenomic observations using remotely sensed environmental parameters to create a system-scale model of marine microbial metabolism for 5904 grid cells (49 km2) in the Western English Chanel, across 3 years of weekly averages. Thirteen environmental variables predicted the relative abundance of 24 bacterial Orders and 1715 unique enzyme-encoding genes that encode turnover of 2893 metabolites. The genes’ predicted relativemore » abundance was highly correlated (Pearson Correlation 0.72, P-value <10-6) with their observed relative abundance in sequenced metagenomes. Predictions of the relative turnover (synthesis or consumption) of CO2 were significantly correlated with observed surface CO2 fugacity. The spatial and temporal variation in the predicted relative abundances of genes coding for cyanase, carbon monoxide and malate dehydrogenase were investigated along with the predicted inter-annual variation in relative consumption or production of ~3000 metabolites forming six significant temporal clusters. These spatiotemporal distributions could possibly be explained by the co-occurrence of anaerobic and aerobic metabolisms associated with localized plankton blooms or sediment resuspension, which facilitate the presence of anaerobic micro-niches. This predictive model provides a general framework for focusing future sampling and experimental design to relate biogeochemical turnover to microbial ecology.« less

Variability of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency in a Large Ensemble of High-Resolution Climate Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mei, W.; Kamae, Y.; Xie, S. P.

2017-12-01

Forced and internal variability of North Atlantic hurricane frequency during 1951-2010 is studied using a large ensemble of climate simulations by a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model that is forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The simulations well capture the interannual-to-decadal variability of hurricane frequency in best track data, and further suggest a possible underestimate of hurricane counts in the current best track data prior to 1966 when satellite measurements were unavailable. A genesis potential index (GPI) averaged over the Main Development Region (MDR) accounts for more than 80% of the forced variations in hurricane frequency, with potential intensity and vertical wind shear being the dominant factors. In line with previous studies, the difference between MDR SST and tropical mean SST is a simple but useful predictor; a one-degree increase in this SST difference produces 7.1±1.4 more hurricanes. The hurricane frequency also exhibits internal variability that is comparable in magnitude to the interannual variability. The 100-member ensemble allows us to address the following important questions: (1) Are the observations equivalent to one realization of such a large ensemble? (2) How many ensemble members are needed to reproduce the variability in observations and in the forced component of the simulations? The sources of the internal variability in hurricane frequency will be identified and discussed. The results provide an explanation for the relatively week correlation ( 0.6) between MDR GPI and hurricane frequency on interannual timescales in observations.

Inhibition of microbial biofuel production in drought-stressed switchgrass hydrolysate

DOE PAGES

Ong, Rebecca Garlock; Higbee, Alan; Bottoms, Scott; ...

2016-11-08

Here, interannual variability in precipitation, particularly drought, can affect lignocellulosic crop biomass yields and composition, and is expected to increase biofuel yield variability. However, the effect of precipitation on downstream fermentation processes has never been directly characterized. In order to investigate the impact of interannual climate variability on biofuel production, corn stover and switchgrass were collected during 3 years with significantly different precipitation profiles, representing a major drought year (2012) and 2 years with average precipitation for the entire season (2010 and 2013). All feedstocks were AFEX (ammonia fiber expansion)-pretreated, enzymatically hydrolyzed, and the hydrolysates separately fermented using xylose-utilizing strainsmore » of Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Zymomonas mobilis. As a result, a chemical genomics approach was also used to evaluate the growth of yeast mutants in the hydrolysates.« less

Interannual variability of the frontal activity in the Southern Hemisphere: relationship with atmospheric circulation and precipitation over southern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blázquez, Josefina; Solman, Silvina A.

2017-04-01

The interannual variability of the frontal activity over the western Southern Hemisphere and its linkage with the variability of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation over southern South America is studied. The analysis is focused on the austral winter and spring seasons. The frontal activity is represented by an index defined as the product between the horizontal gradient of temperature and the relative vorticity at 850 hPa (FI) and is computed from the ERA Interim and NCEP2 reanalysis. For the two seasons the main mode of variability of FI, as depicted by the first Empirical Orthogonal Function, presents centres of action located in the southern part of the western Southern Hemisphere. This pattern is present in the two reanalysis datasets. The correlation coefficients between the principal component of the leading mode of FI and the two main modes of the 500 hPa geopotential height indicate that both the ENSO-mode and the SAM modulate the leading pattern of FI in winter while during the spring season the ENSO-mode controls the FI variability. The variability of the FI has a robust influence on the interannual variability of precipitation over southern South America and adjacent oceans. Over the continent, it was found that the pattern of precipitation anomalies associated with the variability of the FI depicts significant signals over southeastern South America (SESA), centre and south of Chile for winter and over SESA and southeastern Brazil for spring and agrees with the pattern of the leading mode of precipitation variability over southern South America.

Interannual Variability of Water Ice Clouds at Gale Crater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, G.; Giuranna, M.; McConnochie, T. H.; Tamppari, L.; Smith, M. D.; Vicente-Retortillo, Á.; Renno, N. O.; Kloos, J. L.; Moores, J. E.; Guzewich, S.

2017-12-01

The Aphelion Cloud Belt (ACB) is a water ice cloud band that encircles the planet longitudinally at latitudes ranging from about 10°S to 30°N during the northern spring and summer (aphelion season). The ACB has been studied extensively using satellite observations over the last two decades [1], showing little interannual variability from MY 24 to 34. The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission has completed more than 1750 sols of measurements at Gale crater (4.5°S), from Ls 155° in MY 31 to Ls 33° in MY 34. Interestingly, MSL results from various instruments indicate that the ACB produces significant interannual variability at Gale crater during the aphelion season. In particular, near-noon retrievals of water ice opacity by the ChemCam instrument indicate an increase in water ice opacity up to 50% from MY 32 to 33 [2], further supported by analysis of UV [3] and ground temperature [4] data taken by the Rover Environmental Monitoring Station during MY 32 and 33. A weaker ( 5%) increase in water ice opacity in MY 33 relative to MY 32 was also observed from images taken during afternoon hours by the rover's Navigation Cameras [5]. We are analyzing simultaneous and noncontemporary satellite observations at the location of Gale made by the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer [6], Mars Climate Sounder, Thermal Emission Imaging System and Thermal Emission Spectrometer to shed light on the nature of the interannual variability of the ACB at Gale, and to locally understand the relation between the ACB and the water cycle. References:[1] Smith, M.D. (2008), Spacecraft observations of the martian atmosphere, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 36. [2] McConnochie, T. H., et al. (2017), Retrieval of Water Vapor Column Abundance and Aerosol Properties from ChemCam Passive Sky Spectroscopy, Icarus (submitted). [3] Vicente-Retortillo, Á., et al. (2017), Determination of dust aerosol particle size at Gale Crater using REMS UVS and Mastcam measurements, GRL, 44. [4] Vasavada, A.R. et al. (2017), Thermophysical properties along Curiosity's traverse in Gale crater, Mars, Icarus 284. [5] Kloos, J. L., and J. E. Moores (2017), Inter-Annual and Diurnal Variability in Clouds Observed from MSL Over Two Martian Years, LPSC, 48. [6] Giuranna, M. et al. (2016), 12 years of atmospheric monitoring by the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer onboard Mars Express, EGU.

Climatic sensitivity of dryland soil CO2 fluxes differs dramatically with biological soil crust successional state

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tucker, Colin; Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C.

2018-01-01

Arid and semiarid ecosystems make up approximately 41% of Earth’s terrestrial surface and are suggested to regulate the trend and interannual variability of the global terrestrial carbon (C) sink. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are common dryland soil surface communities of bryophytes, lichens, and/or cyanobacteria that bind the soil surface together and that may play an important role in regulating the climatic sensitivity of the dryland C cycle. Major uncertainties exist in our understanding of the interacting effects of changing temperature and moisture on CO2 uptake (photosynthesis) and loss (respiration) from biocrust and sub-crust soil, particularly as related to biocrust successional state. Here, we used a mesocosm approach to assess how biocrust successional states related to climate treatments. We subjected bare soil (Bare), early successional lightly pigmented cyanobacterial biocrust (Early), and late successional darkly pigmented moss-lichen biocrust (Late) to either ambient or + 5°C above ambient soil temperature for 84 days. Under ambient temperatures, Late biocrust mesocosms showed frequent net uptake of CO2, whereas Bare soil, Early biocrust, and warmed Late biocrust mesocosms mostly lost CO2 to the atmosphere. The inhibiting effect of warming on CO2 exchange was a result of accelerated drying of biocrust and soil. We used these data to parameterize, via Bayesian methods, a model of ecosystem CO2 fluxes, and evaluated the model with data from an autochamber CO2 system at our field site on the Colorado Plateau in SE Utah. In the context of the field experiment, the data underscore the negative effect of warming on fluxes both biocrust CO2 uptake and loss—which, because biocrusts are a dominant land cover type in this ecosystem, may extend to ecosystem-scale C cycling.

Storm Effects on Net Ecosystem Productivity in Boreal Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vestin, Patrik; Grelle, Achim; Lagergren, Fredrik; Hellström, Margareta; Langvall, Ola; Lindroth, Anders

2010-05-01

Regional carbon budgets are to some extent determined by disturbance in ecosystems. Disturbance is believed to be partly responsible for the large inter-annual variability of the terrestrial carbon balance. When neglecting anthropogenic disturbance, forest fires have been considered the most important kind of disturbance. However, also insect outbreaks and wind-throw may be major factors in regional carbon budgets. The effects of wind-throw on CO2 fluxes in boreal forests are not well known due to lack of data. Principally, the reduced carbon sequestration capacity, increased substrate availability and severe soil perturbation following wind-throw are expected to result in increased CO2 fluxes from the forest to the atmosphere. In January 2005, the storm Gudrun hit Sweden, which resulted in approx. 66 × 106m3storm-felled stem wood distributed over an area of approx. 272 000 ha. Eddy covariance flux measurements started at storm-felled areas in Asa and Toftaholm in central Sweden during summer 2005. Data from the first months suggests increased CO2 fluxes by a factor of 2.5-10, as compared to normal silviculture (clear-cutting). An important question is how long such enhanced CO2 fluxes persist. The BIOME-BGC model will be calibrated against measured CO2 fluxes from both sites for 2005 through 2009. Modeled data will be used to fill gaps in the data sets and annual carbon balances will be calculated. Data from Asa and Toftaholm will be presented at the conference.

Mulga, a major tropical dry open forest of Australia: recent insights to carbon and water fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eamus, Derek; Huete, Alfredo; Cleverly, James; Nolan, Rachael H.; Ma, Xuanlong; Tarin, Tonantzin; Santini, Nadia S.

2016-12-01

Mulga, comprised of a complex of closely related Acacia spp., grades from a low open forest to tall shrublands in tropical and sub-tropical arid and semi-arid regions of Australia and experiences warm-to-hot annual temperatures and a pronounced dry season. This short synthesis of current knowledge briefly outlines the causes of the extreme variability in rainfall characteristic of much of central Australia, and then discusses the patterns and drivers of variability in carbon and water fluxes of a central Australian low open Mulga forest. Variation in phenology and the impact of differences in the amount and timing of precipitation on vegetation function are then discussed. We use field observations, with particular emphasis on eddy covariance data, coupled with modelling and remote sensing products to interpret inter-seasonal and inter-annual patterns in the behaviour of this ecosystem. We show that Mulga can vary between periods of near carbon neutrality to periods of being a significant sink or source for carbon, depending on both the amount and timing of rainfall. Further, we demonstrate that Mulga contributed significantly to the 2011 global land sink anomaly, a result ascribed to the exceptional rainfall of 2010/2011. Finally, we compare and contrast the hydraulic traits of three tree species growing close to the Mulga and show how each species uses different combinations of trait strategies (for example, sapwood density, xylem vessel implosion resistance, phenological guild, access to groundwater and Huber value) to co-exist in this semi-arid environment. Understanding the inter-annual variability in functional behaviour of this important arid-zone biome and mechanisms underlying species co-existence will increase our ability to predict trajectories of carbon and water balances for future changing climates.

North-South precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal timescales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Diaz, Henry F.; Meko, D.M.

1998-01-01

The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25??to 55??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both timescales, two leading EOFs describe 1) a north-south seesaw of precipitation pivoting near 40??N and 2) variations in precipitation near 40??N, respectively. The amount of overall precipitation variability is only about 10% of the mean and is largely determined by precipitation variations around 40??-45??N and most consistently influenced by nearby circulation patterns; in this sense, domain-average precipitation is closely related to the second EOF. The central latitude and latitudinal spread of precipitation distributions are strongly influenced by precipitation variations in the southern parts of western North America and are closely related to the first EOF. Central latitude of precipitation moves south (north) with tropical warming (cooling) in association with midlatitude western Pacific SLP variations, on both interannual and decadal timescales. Regional patterns and zonal averages of precipitation-sensitive tree-ring series are used to corroborate these patterns and to extend them into the past and appear to share much long- and short-term information with the instrumentally based zonal precipitation EOFs and moments.The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25?? to 55 ??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both tim

Natural and management influences on freshwater inflows and salinity in the San Francisco Estuary at monthly to interannual scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knowles, Noah

2002-01-01

Understanding the processes controlling the physics, chemistry, and biology of the San Francisco Estuary and their relation to climate variability is complicated by the combined influence on freshwater inflows of natural variability and upstream management. To distinguish these influences, alterations of estuarine inflow due to major reservoirs and freshwater pumping in the watershed were inferred from available data. Effects on salinity were estimated by using reconstructed estuarine inflows corresponding to differing levels of impairment to drive a numerical salinity model. Both natural and management inflow and salinity signals show strong interannual variability. Management effects raise salinities during the wet season, with maximum influence in spring. While year‐to‐year variations in all signals are very large, natural interannual variability can greatly exceed the range of management effects on salinity in the estuary.

A century of hydrological variability and trends in the Fraser River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Déry, Stephen J.; Hernández-Henríquez, Marco A.; Owens, Philip N.; Parkes, Margot W.; Petticrew, Ellen L.

2012-06-01

This study examines the 1911-2010 variability and trends in annual streamflow at 139 sites across the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada. The Fraser River is the largest Canadian waterway flowing to the Pacific Ocean and is one of the world’s greatest salmon rivers. Our analyses reveal high runoff rates and low interannual variability in alpine and coastal rivers, and low runoff rates and high interannual variability in most streams in BC’s interior. The interannual variability in streamflow is also low in rivers such as the Adams, Chilko, Quesnel and Stuart where the principal salmon runs of the Fraser River occur. A trend analysis shows a spatially coherent signal with increasing interannual variability in streamflow across the FRB in recent decades, most notably in spring and summer. The upward trend in the coefficient of variation in annual runoff coincides with a period of near-normal annual runoff for the Fraser River at Hope. The interannual variability in streamflow is greater in regulated rather than natural systems; however, it is unclear whether it is predominantly flow regulation that leads to these observed differences. Environmental changes such as rising air temperatures, more frequent polarity changes in large-scale climate teleconnections such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and retreating glaciers may be contributing to the greater range in annual runoff fluctuations across the FRB. This has implications for ecological processes throughout the basin, for example affecting migrating and spawning salmon, a keystone species vital to First Nations communities as well as to commercial and recreational fisheries. To exemplify this linkage between variable flows and biological responses, the unusual FRB runoff anomalies observed in 2010 are discussed in the context of that year’s sockeye salmon run. As the climate continues to warm, greater variability in annual streamflow, and hence in hydrological extremes, may influence ecological processes and human usage throughout the FRB in the 21st century.

Evaluating the Capacity of Global CO2 Flux and Atmospheric Transport Models to Incorporate New Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawa, S. R.; Collatz, G. J.; Erickson, D. J.; Denning, A. S.; Wofsy, S. C.; Andrews, A. E.

2007-01-01

As we enter the new era of satellite remote sensing for CO2 and other carbon cyclerelated quantities, advanced modeling and analysis capabilities are required to fully capitalize on the new observations. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. For application to current, planned, and future remotely sensed CO2 data, it is desirable that these models are accurate and unbiased at time scales from less than daily to multi-annual and at spatial scales from several kilometers or finer to global. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 1998 through 2006. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at lxi degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-2), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to in situ observations at sites in Northern mid latitudes and the continental tropics. The influence of key process representations is inferred. We find that the model can resolve much of the hourly to synoptic variability in the observations, although there are limits imposed by vertical resolution of boundary layer processes. The seasonal cycle and its interannual variations generally respond adequately, but discrepancies in the tropics suggest the need for a refinement of the soil moisture dependence of the respiration flux in CASA. Examples and inferences for interpretation of satellite data will be discussed. In general, the fidelity of these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of real-time, highly resolved remote sensing and other observations into quantitative analyses that will reduce uncertainty in the terrestrial CO2 sink and revolutionize our understanding of the key processes controlling atmospheric CO2 and its evolution with time.

Troposphere-stratosphere (surface-55 km) monthly winter general circulation statistics for the Northern Hemisphere Interannual variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geller, M. A.; Wu, M.-F.; Gelman, M. E.

1984-01-01

Individual monthly mean general circulation statistics for the Northern Hemisphere winters of 1978-79, 1979-80, 1980-81, and 1981-82 are examined for the altitude region from the earth's surface to 55 km. Substantial interannual variability is found in the mean zonal geostrophic wind; planetary waves with zonal wavenumber one and two; the heat and momentum fluxes; and the divergence of the Eliassen-Palm flux. These results are compared with previous studies by other workers. This variability in the monthly means is examined further by looking at both time-latitude sections at constant pressure levels and time-height sections at constant latitudes. The implications of this interannual variability for verifying models and interpreting observations are discussed.

Interannual Atmospheric Variability Simulated by a Mars GCM: Impacts on the Polar Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.

2003-01-01

It is often assumed that in the absence of year-to-year dust variations, Mars weather and climate are very repeatable, at least on decadal scales. Recent multi-annual simulations of a Mars GCM reveal however that significant interannual variations may occur with constant dust conditions. In particular, interannual variability (IAV) appears to be associated with the spectrum of atmospheric disturbances that arise due to baroclinic instability. One quantity that shows significant IAV is the poleward heat flux associated with these waves. These variations and their impacts on the polar heat balance will be examined here.

Indian summer monsoon variability forecasts in the North American multimodel ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Bohar; Cash, Ben; Kinter, James L., III

2018-04-01

The representation of the seasonal mean and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models that participated in the North American Multimodal Ensemble (NMME) phase 1 (NMME:1), and in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models participating in the NMME phase 2 (NMME:2) from 1982-2009, is evaluated over the Indo-Pacific domain with May initial conditions. The multi-model ensemble (MME) represents the Indian monsoon rainfall with modest skill and systematic biases. There is no significant improvement in the seasonal forecast skill or interannual variability of ISMR in NMME:2 as compared to NMME:1. The NMME skillfully predicts seasonal mean sea surface temperature (SST) and some of the teleconnections with seasonal mean rainfall. However, the SST-rainfall teleconnections are stronger in the NMME than observed. The NMME is not able to capture the extremes of seasonal mean rainfall and the simulated Indian Ocean-monsoon teleconnections are opposite to what are observed.

Net carbon balance of three full crop rotations at an agricultural site near Gebesee, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurkuck, M.; Brümmer, C.; Kolle, O.; Kutsch, W. L.; Moffat, A. M.; Mukwashi, K.; Truckenbrodt, S. C.; Herbst, M.

2015-12-01

Continuous eddy-covariance (EC) measurements of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 and H2O exchange have been conducted since 2001 at an agricultural site near Gebesee, Germany, thus providing one of the longest EC time series of European croplands. During the experimental period, winter wheat and winter barley were alternately planted with potatoes, sugar beet, rape, and peppermint covering three full crop rotations (2001-2004, 2005-2009, and 2010-2014). In this study, data of 14 years of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and evapotranspiration (E) were re-calculated. Based on these data, we present the net carbon (C) balance (net biome production, NBP) accounting for any additional C input by fertilization and C output by harvest. Further emphasis was placed on the sensitivity of water use efficiency (WUE) and E to climate and crop type. The main aim was to investigate the interannual variability in both NBP and WUE, thus disentangling the impacts of climatic conditions and land management on the net C balance as well as on WUE and E.

Fungi in the future: Interannual variation and effects of atmospheric change on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities

DOE PAGES

Cotton, T. E. Anne; Fitter, Alastair H.; Miller, R. Michael; ...

2015-01-05

Understanding the natural dynamics of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and their response to global environmental change is essential for the prediction of future plant growth and ecosystem functions. We investigated the long-term temporal dynamics and effect of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) and ozone (O 3) concentrations on AM fungal communities. Molecular methods were used to characterize the AM fungal communities of soybean ( Glycine max) grown under elevated and ambient atmospheric concentrations of both CO 2 and O 3 within a free air concentration enrichment experiment in three growing seasons over 5 yr. Elevated CO 2 altered themore » community composition of AM fungi, increasing the ratio of Glomeraceae to Gigasporaceae. By contrast, no effect of elevated O 3 on AM fungal communities was detected. However, the greatest compositional differences detected were between years, suggesting that, at least in the short term, large-scale interannual temporal dynamics are stronger mediators than atmospheric CO 2 concentrations of AM fungal communities. We conclude that, although atmospheric change may significantly alter AM fungal communities, this effect may be masked by the influences of natural changes and successional patterns through time. We suggest that changes in carbon availability are important determinants of the community dynamics of AM fungi.« less

Variations of Global Terrestrial Primary Production Observed by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) From 2000 to 2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, M.; Running, S.; Heinsch, F. A.

2006-12-01

Since the first Earth Observing System (EOS) satellite Terra was launched in December 1999 and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor onboard Terra began to provide data in February 2000, we have had six-year MODIS global 1-km terrestrial Gross and Net Primary Production (GPP &NPP) datasets. In this article, we present the variations (seasonality and inter-annual variability) of global GPP/NPP from the latest improved Collection 4.8 (C4.8) MODIS datasets for the past six-year (2000 - 2005), as well as improvements of the algorithm, validations of GPP and NPP. Validation results show that the C4.8 data have higher accuracy and quality than the previous version. Analyses of the variations in GPP/NPP show that GPP not only can reflect strong seasonality of photosynthesis activities by plants in mid- and high-latitude, but importantly, can reveal enhanced growth of Amazon rainforests during dry season, consistent with the reports by Huete et al. (2006) on GRL. Spatially, plants over mid- and high-latitude (north to 22.5°N) are the major contributor of global GPP seasonality. Inter-annual variability of MODIS NPP for 2000 - 2005 reveals the negative effects of major droughts on carbon sequestration at the regional and continental scales. A striking phenomenon is that the severe drought in 2005 over Amazon reduced NPP, indicating water availability becomes the dominant limiting factor rather than solar radiation under normal conditions. GMAO and NCEP driven global total NPPs have the similar interannual anomalies, and they generally follow the inverted CO2 growth rate anomaly with correlation of 0.85 and 0.91, respectively, which are higher than the correlation of 0.7 found by Nemani et al. (2003) on Science. Though there are only 6 years of MODIS data, results show that global NPP decreased from 2000 to 2005, and spatially most decreased NPP areas are in tropic and south hemisphere.

Terrestrial carbon cycle responses to drought and climate stress: New insights using atmospheric observations of CO2 and delta13C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alden, Caroline B.

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) continue to rise well into the second decade of the new millennium, in spite of broad-scale human understanding of the impacts of fossil fuel emissions on the earth's climate. Natural sinks for CO2 that are relevant on human time scales---the world's oceans and land biosphere---appear to have kept pace with emissions. The continuously increasing strength of the land biosphere sink for CO2 is surpassing expectations given our understanding of the CO2 fertilization and warming effects on the balance between photosynthesis and respiration, especially in the face of ongoing forest degradation. The climate and carbon cycle links between the atmosphere and land biosphere are not well understood, especially at regional (100 km to 10,000 km) scales. The climate modulating effects of changing plant stomatal conductance in response to temperature and water availability is a key area of uncertainty. Further, the differential response to climate change of C3 and C4 plant functional types is not well known at regional scales. This work outlines the development of a novel application of atmospheric observations of delta13C of CO2 to investigate the links between climate and water and carbon cycling and the integrated responses of C3 and C4 ecosystems to climate variables. A two-step Bayesian batch inversion for 3-hourly, 1x1º CO2 fluxes (step one), and for 3-hourly 1x1º delta13C of recently assimilated carbon (step two) is created here for the first time, and is used to investigate links between regional climate indicators and changes in delta13C of the biosphere. Results show that predictable responses of regional-scale, integrated plant discrimination to temperature, precipitation and relative humidity anomalies can be recovered from atmospheric signals. Model development, synthetic data simulations to test sensitivity, and results for the year 2010 are presented here. This dissertation also includes two other applications of atmospheric observations of CO2 and delta13C: 1) a state of the art atmospheric CO2 budgeting exercise to show that global net sinks for CO2 have steadily increased over the last 50 years, and 2) a global investigation of the mechanistic drivers of interannual variability in biosphere discrimination against delta13C.

The Interannual Stability of Cumulative Frequency Distributions for Convective System Size and Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohr, Karen I.; Molinari, John; Thorncroft, Chris D,

2010-01-01

The characteristics of convective system populations in West Africa and the western Pacific tropical cyclone basin were analyzed to investigate whether interannual variability in convective activity in tropical continental and oceanic environments is driven by variations in the number of events during the wet season or by favoring large and/or intense convective systems. Convective systems were defined from TRMM data as a cluster of pixels with an 85 GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature below 255 K and with an area at least 64 km 2. The study database consisted of convective systems in West Africa from May Sep for 1998-2007 and in the western Pacific from May Nov 1998-2007. Annual cumulative frequency distributions for system minimum brightness temperature and system area were constructed for both regions. For both regions, there were no statistically significant differences among the annual curves for system minimum brightness temperature. There were two groups of system area curves, split by the TRMM altitude boost in 2001. Within each set, there was no statistically significant interannual variability. Sub-setting the database revealed some sensitivity in distribution shape to the size of the sampling area, length of sample period, and climate zone. From a regional perspective, the stability of the cumulative frequency distributions implied that the probability that a convective system would attain a particular size or intensity does not change interannually. Variability in the number of convective events appeared to be more important in determining whether a year is wetter or drier than normal.

Mechanisms of Interannual Variations of the Meridional Overturning Circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cabanes, Cecile; Lee, Tong; Fu, Lee-Lueng

2008-01-01

The authors investigate the nature of the interannual variability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the North Atlantic Ocean using an Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) assimilation product for the period of 1993-2003. The time series of the first empirical orthogonal function of the MOC is found to be correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, while the associated circulation anomalies correspond to cells extending over the full ocean depth. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the wind is responsible for most of this interannual variability, at least south of 40(deg)N. A dynamical decomposition of the meridional streamfunction allows a further look into the mechanisms. In particular, the contributions associated with 1) the Ekman flow and its depth-independent compensation, 2) the vertical shear flow, and 3) the barotropic gyre flowing over zonally varying topography are examined. Ekman processes are found to dominate the shorter time scales (1.5-3 yr), while for longer time scales (3-10 yr) the MOC variations associated with vertical shear flow are of greater importance. The latter is primarily caused by heaving of the pycnocline in the western subtropics associated with the stronger wind forcing. Finally, how these changes in the MOC affect the meridional heat transport (MHT) is examined. It is found that overall, Ekman processes explain a larger part of interannual variability (3-10 yr) for MHT (57%) than for the MOC (33%).

Extracting Leading Nonlinear Modes of Changing Climate From Global SST Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Loskutov, E. M.; Feigin, A. M.; Kurths, J.

2017-12-01

Data-driven modeling of climate requires adequate principal variables extracted from observed high-dimensional data. For constructing such variables it is needed to find spatial-temporal patterns explaining a substantial part of the variability and comprising all dynamically related time series from the data. The difficulties of this task rise from the nonlinearity and non-stationarity of the climate dynamical system. The nonlinearity leads to insufficiency of linear methods of data decomposition for separating different processes entangled in the observed time series. On the other hand, various forcings, both anthropogenic and natural, make the dynamics non-stationary, and we should be able to describe the response of the system to such forcings in order to separate the modes explaining the internal variability. The method we present is aimed to overcome both these problems. The method is based on the Nonlinear Dynamical Mode (NDM) decomposition [1,2], but takes into account external forcing signals. An each mode depends on hidden, unknown a priori, time series which, together with external forcing time series, are mapped onto data space. Finding both the hidden signals and the mapping allows us to study the evolution of the modes' structure in changing external conditions and to compare the roles of the internal variability and forcing in the observed behavior. The method is used for extracting of the principal modes of SST variability on inter-annual and multidecadal time scales accounting the external forcings such as CO2, variations of the solar activity and volcanic activity. The structure of the revealed teleconnection patterns as well as their forecast under different CO2 emission scenarios are discussed.[1] Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. [2] Gavrilov, A., Mukhin, D., Loskutov, E., Volodin, E., Feigin, A., & Kurths, J. (2016). Method for reconstructing nonlinear modes with adaptive structure from multidimensional data. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 26(12), 123101.

Modeling seasonal and interannual variability in ecosystem carbon cycling for the Brazilian Amazon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potter, Christopher; Klooster, Steven; de Carvalho, Claudio Reis; Genovese, Vanessa Brooks; Torregrosa, Alicia; Dungan, Jennifer; Bobo, Matthew; Coughlan, Joseph

2001-05-01

Previous field measurements have implied that undisturbed Amazon forests may represent a substantial terrestrial sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. We investigated this hypothesis using a regional ecosystem model for net primary production (NPP) and soil biogeochemical cycling. Seasonal and interannual controls on net ecosystem production (NEP) were studied with integration of high-resolution (8-km) multiyear satellite data to characterize Amazon land surface properties over time. Background analysis of temporal and spatial relationships between regional rainfall patterns and satellite observations (for vegetation land cover, fire counts, and smoke aerosol effects) reveals several notable patterns in the model driver data. Autocorrelation analysis for monthly vegetation "greenness" index (normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and monthly rainfall indicates a significant lag time correlation of up to 12 months. At lag times approaching 36 months, autocorrelation function (ACF) values did not exceed the 95% confidence interval at locations west of about 47°W, which is near the transition zone of seasonal tropical forest and other (nonforest) vegetation types. Even at lag times of 12 months or less, the location near Manaus (approximately 60°W) represents the farthest western point in the Amazon region where seasonality of rainfall accounts significantly for monthly variations in forest phenology, as observed using NDVI. Comparisons of NDVI seasonal profiles in areas of the eastern Amazon widely affected by fires (as observed from satellite) suggest that our adjusted AVHRR-NDVI captures year-to-year variation in land cover greenness with minimal interference from small fires and smoke aerosols. Ecosystem model results using this newly generated combination of regional forcing data from satellite suggest that undisturbed Amazon forests can be strong net sinks for atmospheric carbon dioxide, particularly during wet (non El Niño) years. However, drought effects during El Niño years can reduce NPP in primary forests of the eastern Amazon by 10-20%, compared to long-term average estimates of regional productivity. Annual NEP for the region is predicted to range from -0.4 Pg C yr-1 (net CO2 source) to 0.5 Pg C yr-1 (net CO2 sink), with large interannual variability over the states of Pará, Maranhao, and Amazonas. As in the case of predicted NPP, it appears that periods of relatively high solar surface irradiance combined with several months of adequate rainfall are required to sustain the forest carbon sink for positive yearly NEP estimates.

Reconstructing the leading mode of multi-decadal North Atlantic variability over the last two millenia using functional paleoclimate networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franke, Jasper G.; Werner, Johannes; Donner, Reik V.

2017-04-01

The increasing availability of high-resolution North Atlantic paleoclimate proxies allows to not only study local climate variations in time, but also temporal changes in spatial variability patterns across the entire region possibly controlled by large-scale coherent variability modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In this study, we use functional paleoclimate network analysis [1,2] to investigate changes in the statistical similarity patterns among an ensemble of high-resolution terrestrial paleoclimate records from Northern Europe included in the Arctic 2k data base. Specifically, we construct complex networks capturing the mutual statistical similarity of inter-annual temperature variability recorded in tree ring records, ice cores and lake sediments for multidecadal time windows covering the last two millenia. The observed patterns of co-variability are ultimately connected to the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and most prominently to multidecadal variations of the NAO. Based on the inferred networks, we study the dynamical similarity between regional clusters of archives defined according to present-day inter-annual temperature variations across the study region. This analysis identifies those time-dependent inter-regional linkages that are most informative about the leading-order North Atlantic climate variability according to a recent NAO reconstruction for the last millenium [3]. Based on these linkages, we extend the existing reconstruction to obtain qualitative information on multidecadal to centennial scale North Atlantic climate variability over the last two millenia. In general, we find a tendency towards a dominating positive NAO phase interrupted by pronounced and extended intervals of negative NAO. Relatively rapid transitions between both types of behaviour are present during distinct periods including the Little Ice Age, the Medieval Climate Anomaly and for the Dark Ages Little Ice Age. [1] K. Rehfeld, N. Marwan, S.F.M. Breitenbach, J. Kurths: Late Holocene Asian summer monsoon dynamics from small but complex networks of paleoclimate data. Climate Dynamics 41, 3-19, 2013 [2] J.L. Oster, N.P. Kelley: Tracking regional and global teleconnections recorded by western North American speleothem records. Quaternary Science Reviews 149, 18-33, 2016 [3] P. Ortega, F. Lehner, D. Swingedouw, V. Masson-Delmotte, C.C. Raible, M. Casado, P. Yiou: A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millenium. Nature 523, 71-74, 2015

Inter-annual Variability of Snowfall in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.

2016-12-01

Winter snowfall, particularly lake-effect snowfall, impacts all aspects of Michigan life in the wintertime, from motorsports and tourism to impacting the day-to-day lives of residents. Understanding the inter-annual variability of winter snowfall will provide sound basis for local community safety management and improve weather forecasting. This study attempts to understand the trend in winter snowfall and the influencing factors of winter snowfall variability in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan (LPM) using station snowfall measurements and statistical analysis. Our study demonstrates that snowfall has significantly increased from 1932 to 2015. Correlation analysis suggests that regionally average air temperatures have a strong negative relationship with snowfall in LPM. On average, approximately 27% of inter-annual variability in snowfall can be explained by regionally average air temperatures. ENSO events are also negatively related to snowfall in LPM and can explain 8% of inter-annual variability. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) does not have strong influence on snowfall. Composite analysis demonstrates that on annual basis, more winter snowfall occurs during the years with higher maximum ice cover (MIC) than during the years with lower MIC in Lake Michigan. Higher MIC is often associated with lower air temperatures which are negatively related to winter snowfall. This study could provide insight on future snow related climate model improvement and weather forecasting.

A method to assess the inter-annual weather-dependent variability in air pollution concentration and deposition based on weather typing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pleijel, Håkan; Grundström, Maria; Karlsson, Gunilla Pihl; Karlsson, Per Erik; Chen, Deliang

2016-02-01

Annual anomalies in air pollutant concentrations, and deposition (bulk and throughfall) of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium, in the Gothenburg region, south-west Sweden, were correlated with optimized linear combinations of the yearly frequency of Lamb Weather Types (LWTs) to determine the extent to which the year-to-year variation in pollution exposure can be partly explained by weather related variability. Air concentrations of urban NO2, CO, PM10, as well as O3 at both an urban and a rural monitoring site, and the deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium for the period 1997-2010 were included in the analysis. Linear detrending of the time series was performed to estimate trend-independent anomalies. These estimated anomalies were subtracted from observed annual values. Then the statistical significance of temporal trends with and without LWT adjustment was tested. For the pollutants studied, the annual anomaly was well correlated with the annual LWT combination (R2 in the range 0.52-0.90). Some negative (annual average [NO2], ammonia bulk deposition) or positive (average urban [O3]) temporal trends became statistically significant (p < 0.05) when the LWT adjustment was applied. In all the cases but one (NH4 throughfall, for which no temporal trend existed) the significance of temporal trends became stronger with LWT adjustment. For nitrate and ammonium, the LWT based adjustment explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variation for bulk deposition than for throughfall. This is probably linked to the longer time scale of canopy related dry deposition processes influencing throughfall being explained to a lesser extent by LWTs than the meteorological factors controlling bulk deposition. The proposed novel methodology can be used by authorities responsible for air pollution management, and by researchers studying temporal trends in pollution, to evaluate e.g. the relative importance of changes in emissions and weather variability in annual air pollution exposure.

Increasing efficiency of CO2 uptake by combined land-ocean sink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Marle, M.; van Wees, D.; Houghton, R. A.; Nassikas, A.; van der Werf, G.

2017-12-01

Carbon-climate feedbacks are one of the key uncertainties in predicting future climate change. Such a feedback could originate from carbon sinks losing their efficiency, for example due to saturation of the CO2 fertilization effect or ocean warming. An indirect approach to estimate how the combined land and ocean sink responds to climate change and growing fossil fuel emissions is based on assessing the trends in the airborne fraction of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and land use change. One key limitation with this approach has been the large uncertainty in quantifying land use change emissions. We have re-assessed those emissions in a more data-driven approach by combining estimates coming from a bookkeeping model with visibility-based land use change emissions available for the Arc of Deforestation and Equatorial Asia, two key regions with large land use change emissions. The advantage of the visibility-based dataset is that the emissions are observation-based and this dataset provides more detailed information about interannual variability than previous estimates. Based on our estimates we provide evidence that land use and land cover change emissions have increased more rapidly than previously thought, implying that the airborne fraction has decreased since the start of CO2 measurements in 1959. This finding is surprising because it means that the combined land and ocean sink has become more efficient while the opposite is expected.

Seasonal and Interannual Variabilities in Tropical Tropospheric Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ziemke, J. R.; Chandra, S.

1999-01-01

This paper presents a detailed characterization of seasonal and interannual variability in tropical tropospheric column ozone (TCO). TCO time series are derived from 20 years (1979-1998) of total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) data using the convective cloud differential (CCD) method. Our study identifies three regions in the tropics with distinctly different zonal characteristics related to seasonal and interannual variability. These three regions are the eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and western Pacific. Results show that in both the eastern and western Pacific seasonal-cycle variability of northern hemisphere (NH) TCO exhibits maximum amount during NH spring whereas largest amount in southern hemisphere (SH) TCO occurs during SH spring. In the Atlantic, maximum TCO in both hemispheres occurs in SH spring. These seasonal cycles are shown to be comparable to seasonal cycles present in ground-based ozonesonde measurements. Interannual variability in the Atlantic region indicates a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal that is out of phase with the QBO present in stratospheric column ozone (SCO). This is consistent with high pollution and high concentrations of mid-to-upper tropospheric O3-producing precursors in this region. The out of phase relation suggests a UV modulation of tropospheric photochemistry caused by the QBO in stratospheric O3. During El Nino events there is anomalously low TCO in the eastern Pacific and high values in the western Pacific, indicating the effects of convectively-driven transport of low-value boundary layer O3 (reducing TCO) and O3 precursors including H2O and OH. A simplified technique is proposed to derive high-resolution maps of TCO in the tropics even in the absence of tropopause-level clouds. This promising approach requires only total ozone gridded measurements and utilizes the small variability observed in TCO near the dateline. This technique has an advantage compared to the CCD method because the latter requires high-resolution footprint measurements of both reflectivity and total ozone in the presence of tropopause-level cloud tops.

Global modeling of land water and energy balances. Part III: Interannual variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shmakin, A.B.; Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.

2002-01-01

The Land Dynamics (LaD) model is tested by comparison with observations of interannual variations in discharge from 44 large river basins for which relatively accurate time series of monthly precipitation (a primary model input) have recently been computed. When results are pooled across all basins, the model explains 67% of the interannual variance of annual runoff ratio anomalies (i.e., anomalies of annual discharge volume, normalized by long-term mean precipitation volume). The new estimates of basin precipitation appear to offer an improvement over those from a state-of-the-art analysis of global precipitation (the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation, CMAP), judging from comparisons of parallel model runs and of analyses of precipitation-discharge correlations. When the new precipitation estimates are used, the performance of the LaD model is comparable to, but not significantly better than, that of a simple, semiempirical water-balance relation that uses only annual totals of surface net radiation and precipitation. This implies that the LaD simulations of interannual runoff variability do not benefit substantially from information on geographical variability of land parameters or seasonal structure of interannual variability of precipitation. The aforementioned analyses necessitated the development of a method for downscaling of long-term monthly precipitation data to the relatively short timescales necessary for running the model. The method merges the long-term data with a reference dataset of 1-yr duration, having high temporal resolution. The success of the method, for the model and data considered here, was demonstrated in a series of model-model comparisons and in the comparisons of modeled and observed interannual variations of basin discharge.

Controls on the interannual variability of hypoxia in a subtropical embayment and its adjacent waters in the Guangdong coastal upwelling system, northern South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Heng; Cheng, Weicong; Chen, Yuren; Yu, Liuqian; Gong, Wenping

2018-06-01

Coastal embayments located downwind of large rivers under an upwelling-favorable wind are prone to develop low-oxygen or hypoxic conditions in their bottom water. One such embayment is Mirs Bay, off the Guangdong coast, which is affected by upwelling and the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) plume during summer. The relative importance of physical and biochemical processes on the interannual variability of hypoxia in Mirs Bay and its adjacent waters was investigated using statistical analyses of monthly hydrographic and water quality monitoring data from 2001 to 2015. The results reveal that the southwesterly wind duration and the PRE river discharge together explain 49% of the interannual variability in the size of the hypoxic area, whereas inclusion of the nutrient concentrations inside Mirs Bay and phytoplankton on the shelf explains 75% of the interannual variability in the size of the hypoxic area. This finding suggests that the interannual variability of hypoxia in Mirs Bay is regulated by coupled physical and biochemical processes. Increase of the hypoxic area under a longer-lasting southwesterly wind is caused by increased stratification, extended bottom water residence time, and onshore transport of a low-oxygen water mass induced by stable upwelling. In contrast, a reduction in the size of the hypoxic area may be attributed to a decrease in the surface water residence time of the particulate organic matter outside Mirs Bay due to increased discharge from the PRE. The results also show that the effects of allochthonous particulate organic matter outside Mirs Bay on bottom hypoxia cannot be neglected.

The Role of Phytoplankton Dynamics in the Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Carbon in the Subpolar North Atlantic - a Modeling Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Signorini, Sergio; Hakkinen, Sirpa; Gudmundsson, K.; Olsen, A.; Omar, A. M.; Olafsson, J.; Reverdin, G.; Henson, S. A.; McClain, C. R.; Worthen, D. L.

2014-01-01

We developed an ecosystem/biogeochemical model system, which includes multiple phytoplankton functional groups and carbon cycle dynamics, and applied it to investigate physical-biological interactions in Icelandic waters. Satellite and in situ data were used to evaluate the model. Surface seasonal cycle amplitudes and biases of key parameters (DIC, TA, pCO2, air-sea CO2 flux, and nutrients) are significantly improved when compared to surface observations by prescribing deep water values and trends, based on available data. The seasonality of the coccolithophore and "other phytoplankton" (diatoms and dinoflagellates) blooms is in general agreement with satellite ocean color products. Nutrient supply, biomass and calcite concentrations are modulated by light and mixed layer depth seasonal cycles. Diatoms are the most abundant phytoplankton, with a large bloom in early spring and a secondary bloom in fall. The diatom bloom is followed by blooms of dinoflagellates and coccolithophores. The effect of biological changes on the seasonal variability of the surface ocean pCO2 is nearly twice the temperature effect, in agreement with previous studies. The inclusion of multiple phytoplankton functional groups in the model played a major role in the accurate representation of CO2 uptake by biology. For instance, at the peak of the bloom, the exclusion of coccolithophores causes an increase in alkalinity of up to 4 µmol kg(sup -1) with a corresponding increase in DIC of up to 16 µmol kg(sup -1). During the peak of the bloom in summer, the net effect of the absence of the coccolithophores bloom is an increase in pCO2 of more than 20 µatm and a reduction of atmospheric CO2 uptake of more than 6 mmolm(sup -2) d(sup -1). On average, the impact of coccolithophores is an increase of air-sea CO2 flux of about 27 %. Considering the areal extent of the bloom from satellite images within the Irminger and Icelandic Basins, this reduction translates into an annual mean of nearly 1500 tonnes C yr(sup -1).

Interannual, seasonal, and retrospective analysis of the methane and carbon dioxide budgets of a temperate peatland

Treesearch

D.M. Olson; T.J. Griffis; A. Noormets; R. Kolka; J. Chen

2013-01-01

Three years (2009-2011) of near-continuous methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes were measured with the eddy covariance (EC) technique at a temperate peatland located within the Marcell Experimental Forest, in northern Minnesota, USA. The peatland was a net source of CH4 and a net sink of CO...

Continuous Remote Measurements of Atmospheric O2 Concentrations in Relation to Interannual Variations in Biological Production and Carbon Cycling in the Oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keeling, Ralph F.; Campbell, J. A. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We successfully initiated a program to obtain continuous time series of atmospheric O2 concentrations at a semi-remote coastal site, in Trinidad, California. The installation, which was completed in September 1999, consists of a commercially-available O2 and CO2 analyzers interfaced to a custom gas handling system and housed in a dedicated building at the Trinidad site. Ultimately, the data from this site are expected to provide constraints, complementing satellite data, on variations in ocean productivity and carbon exchange on annual and interannual time scales, in the context of human-induced changes in global climate and other perturbations. The existing time-series, of limited duration, have been used in support of studies of the O2/CO2 exchange from a wild fire (which fortuitously occurred nearby in October 1999) and to quantify air-sea N2O and O2 exchanges related to coastal upwelling events. More generally, the project demonstrates the feasibility of obtaining semi-continuous O2 time series at moderate cost from strategic locations globally.

The interannual variability of the Haines Index over North America

Treesearch

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; Joseph J. Charney

2013-01-01

The Haines index (HI) is a fire-weather index that is widely used as an indicator of the potential for dry, low-static-stability air in the lower atmosphere to contribute to erratic fire behavior or large fire growth. This study examines the interannual variability of HI over North America and its relationship to indicators of large-scale circulation anomalies. The...

Climate Downscaling over Nordeste, Brazil, Using the NCEP RSM97.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Liqiang; Ferran Moncunill, David; Li, Huilan; Divino Moura, Antonio; de Assis de Souza Filho, Francisco

2005-02-01

The NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM), with horizontal resolution of 60 km, was used to downscale the ECHAM4.5 AGCM (T42) simulations forced with observed SSTs over northeast Brazil. An ensemble of 10 runs for the period January-June 1971-2000 was used in this study. The RSM can resolve the spatial patterns of observed seasonal precipitation and capture the interannual variability of observed seasonal precipitation as well. The AGCM bias in displacement of the Atlantic ITCZ is partially corrected in the RSM. The RSM probability distribution function of seasonal precipitation anomalies is in better agreement with observations than that of the driving AGCM. Good potential prediction skills are demonstrated by the RSM in predicting the interannual variability of regional seasonal precipitation. The RSM can also capture the interannual variability of observed precipitation at intraseasonal time scales, such as precipitation intensity distribution and dry spells. A drought index and a flooding index were adopted to indicate the severity of drought and flooding conditions, and their interannual variability was reproduced by the RSM. The overall RSM performance in the downscaled climate of the ECHAM4.5 AGCM is satisfactory over Nordeste. The primary deficiency is a systematic dry bias for precipitation simulation.

Sole larval supply to coastal nurseries: Interannual variability and connectivity at interregional and interpopulation scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savina, M.; Lunghi, M.; Archambault, B.; Baulier, L.; Huret, M.; Le Pape, O.

2016-05-01

Simulating fish larval drift helps assess the sensitivity of recruitment variability to early life history. An individual-based model (IBM) coupled to a hydrodynamic model was used to simulate common sole larval supply from spawning areas to coastal and estuarine nursery grounds at the meta-population scale (4 assessed stocks), from the southern North Sea to the Bay of Biscay (Western Europe) on a 26-yr time series, from 1982 to 2007. The IBM allowed each particle released to be transported by currents, to grow depending on temperature, to migrate vertically depending on development stage, to die along pelagic stages or to settle on a nursery, representing the life history from spawning to metamorphosis. The model outputs were analysed to explore interannual patterns in the amounts of settled sole larvae at the population scale; they suggested: (i) a low connectivity between populations at the larval stage, (ii) a moderate influence of interannual variation in the spawning biomass, (iii) dramatic consequences of life history on the abundance of settling larvae and (iv) the effects of climate variability on the interannual variability of the larvae settlement success.

Climate Variability and Wildfires: Insights from Global Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Lamarque, J. F.; Wittenberg, A. T.

2016-12-01

Better understanding of the relationship between variability in global climate and emissions from wildfires is needed for predictions of fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Here we investigate this relationship using the long, preindustrial control simulations and historical ensembles of two Earth System models; CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDL ESM2Mb. There is smaller interannual variability of global fires in both models than in present day inventories, especially in boreal regions where observed fires vary substantially from year to year. Patterns of fire response to climate oscillation indices, including the El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (AMO) are explored with the model results and compared to the response derived from satellite measurements and proxy observations. Increases in fire emissions in southeast Asia and boreal North America are associated with positive ENSO and PDO, while United States fires and Sahel fires decrease for the same climate conditions. Boreal fire emissions decrease in CESM1 for the warm phase of the AMO, while ESM2Mb did not produce a reliable AMO. CESM1 produces a weak negative trend in global fire emissions for the period 1920 to 2005, while ESM2Mb produces a positive trend over the same period. Both trends are statistically significant at a confidence level of 95% or greater given the variability derived from the respective preindustrial controls. In addition to climate variability impacts on fires, we also explore the impacts of fire emissions on climate variability and atmospheric chemistry. We analyze three long, free-evolving ESM2Mb simulations; one without fire emissions, one with constant year-over-year fire emissions based on a present day inventory, and one with interannually varying fire emissions coupled between the terrestrial and atmospheric components of the model, to gain a better understanding of the role of fire emissions in climate over long timescales.

Regional contribution to variability and trends of global gross primary productivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Min; Rafique, Rashid; Asrar, Ghassem R.

Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) is the largest component of the global carbon cycle and a key process for understanding land ecosystems dynamics. In this study, we used GPP estimates from a combination of eight global biome models participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact-Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP2a), the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) GPP product, and a data-driven product (Model Tree Ensemble, MTE) to study the spatiotemporal variability of GPP at the regional and global levels. We found the 2000-2010 total global GPP estimated from the model ensemble to be 117±13 Pg C yr-1 (mean ± 1 standard deviation), whichmore » was higher than MODIS (112 Pg C yr-1), and close to the MTE (120 Pg C yr-1). The spatial patterns of MODIS, MTE and ISIMIP2a GPP generally agree well, but their temporal trends are different, and the seasonality and inter-annual variability of GPP at the regional and global levels are not completely consistent. For the model ensemble, Tropical Latin America contributes the most to global GPP, Asian regions contribute the most to the global GPP trend, the Northern Hemisphere regions dominate the global GPP seasonal variations, and Oceania is likely the largest contributor to inter-annual variability of global GPP. However, we observed large uncertainties across the eight ISIMIP2a models, which are probably due to the differences in the formulation of underlying photosynthetic processes. The results of this study are useful in understanding the contributions of different regions to global GPP and its spatiotemporal variability, how the model- and observational-based GPP estimates differ from each other in time and space, and the relative strength of the eight models. Our results also highlight the models’ ability to capture the seasonality of GPP that are essential for understanding the inter-annual and seasonal variability of GPP as a major component of the carbon cycle.« less

Regional contribution to variability and trends of global gross primary productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Min; Rafique, Rashid; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Ciais, Philippe; Zhao, Fang; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Ostberg, Sebastian; Chang, Jinfeng; Ito, Akihiko; Yang, Jia; Zeng, Ning; Kalnay, Eugenia; West, Tristram; Leng, Guoyong; Francois, Louis; Munhoven, Guy; Henrot, Alexandra; Tian, Hanqin; Pan, Shufen; Nishina, Kazuya; Viovy, Nicolas; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Betts, Richard; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Steinkamp, Jörg; Hickler, Thomas

2017-10-01

Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) is the largest component of the global carbon cycle and a key process for understanding land ecosystems dynamics. In this study, we used GPP estimates from a combination of eight global biome models participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact-Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP2a), the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) GPP product, and a data-driven product (Model Tree Ensemble, MTE) to study the spatiotemporal variability of GPP at the regional and global levels. We found the 2000-2010 total global GPP estimated from the model ensemble to be 117 ± 13 Pg C yr-1 (mean ± 1 standard deviation), which was higher than MODIS (112 Pg C yr-1), and close to the MTE (120 Pg C yr-1). The spatial patterns of MODIS, MTE and ISIMIP2a GPP generally agree well, but their temporal trends are different, and the seasonality and inter-annual variability of GPP at the regional and global levels are not completely consistent. For the model ensemble, Tropical Latin America contributes the most to global GPP, Asian regions contribute the most to the global GPP trend, the Northern Hemisphere regions dominate the global GPP seasonal variations, and Oceania is likely the largest contributor to inter-annual variability of global GPP. However, we observed large uncertainties across the eight ISIMIP2a models, which are probably due to the differences in the formulation of underlying photosynthetic processes. The results of this study are useful in understanding the contributions of different regions to global GPP and its spatiotemporal variability, how the model- and observational-based GPP estimates differ from each other in time and space, and the relative strength of the eight models. Our results also highlight the models’ ability to capture the seasonality of GPP that are essential for understanding the inter-annual and seasonal variability of GPP as a major component of the carbon cycle.

The influence of global sea surface temperature variability on the large-scale land surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyrrell, Nicholas L.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wales, Scott; Rezny, Mike

2015-04-01

In global warming scenarios, global land surface temperatures () warm with greater amplitude than sea surface temperatures (SSTs), leading to a land/sea warming contrast even in equilibrium. Similarly, the interannual variability of is larger than the covariant interannual SST variability, leading to a land/sea contrast in natural variability. This work investigates the land/sea contrast in natural variability based on global observations, coupled general circulation model simulations and idealised atmospheric general circulation model simulations with different SST forcings. The land/sea temperature contrast in interannual variability is found to exist in observations and models to a varying extent in global, tropical and extra-tropical bands. There is agreement between models and observations in the tropics but not the extra-tropics. Causality in the land-sea relationship is explored with modelling experiments forced with prescribed SSTs, where an amplification of the imposed SST variability is seen over land. The amplification of to tropical SST anomalies is due to the enhanced upper level atmospheric warming that corresponds with tropical moist convection over oceans leading to upper level temperature variations that are larger in amplitude than the source SST anomalies. This mechanism is similar to that proposed for explaining the equilibrium global warming land/sea warming contrast. The link of the to the dominant mode of tropical and global interannual climate variability, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is found to be an indirect and delayed connection. ENSO SST variability affects the oceans outside the tropical Pacific, which in turn leads to a further, amplified and delayed response of.

Combining multiple ecosystem productivity measurements to constrain carbon uptake estimates in semiarid grasslands and shrublands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, G. E.; Krofcheck, D. J.; Collins, S. L.; Litvak, M. E.

2016-12-01

Recent observational and modeling studies have indicated that semiarid ecosystems are more dynamic contributors to the global carbon budget than once thought. Semiarid carbon fluxes, however, are generally small, with high interannual and spatial variability, which suggests that validating their global significance may depend on examining multiple productivity measures and their associated uncertainties and inconsistencies. We examined ecosystem productivity from eddy covariance (NEE), harvest (NPP), and terrestrial biome models (NEPm) at two very similar grassland sites and one creosote shrubland site in the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge of central New Mexico, USA. Our goal was to assess site and methodological correspondence in annual carbon uptake, patterns of interannual variability, and measurement uncertainty. One grassland site was a perennial carbon source losing 30 g C m-2 per year on average, while the other two sites were carbon sources or sinks depending on the year, with average net uptake of 5 and 25 g C m-2 per year at the grassland and shrubland site, respectively. Uncertainty values for cumulative annual NEE overlapped between the three sites in most years. When combined, aboveground and belowground annual NPP measurements were 15% higher than annual NEE values and did not confirm a loss of carbon at any site in any year. Despite differences in mean site carbon balance, year-to-year changes in cumulative annual NEE and NPP were similar at all sites with years 2010 and 2013 being favorable for carbon uptake and 2011 and 2012 being unfavorable at all sites. Modeled NEPm data for a number of nearby grid cells reproduced only a fraction of the observed range in carbon uptake and its interannual variability. These three sites are highly similar in location and climate and multiple carbon flux measurements confirm the high interannual variability in carbon flux. The exact magnitude of these fluxes, however, remains difficult to discern.

Challenges in modeling spatiotemporally varying phytoplankton blooms in the Northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sedigh Marvasti, S.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Bidokhti, A. A.; Dunne, J. P.; Ghader, S.

2016-02-01

Recent years have shown an increase in harmful algal blooms in the Northwest Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman, raising the question of whether climate change will accelerate this trend. This has led us to examine whether the Earth System Models used to simulate phytoplankton productivity accurately capture bloom dynamics in this region - both in terms of the annual cycle and interannual variability. Satellite data (SeaWIFS ocean color) show two climatological blooms in this region, a wintertime bloom peaking in February and a summertime bloom peaking in September. On a regional scale, interannual variability of the wintertime bloom is dominated by cyclonic eddies which vary in location from one year to another. Two coarse (1°) models with the relatively complex biogeochemistry (TOPAZ) capture the annual cycle but neither eddies nor the interannual variability. An eddy-resolving model (GFDL CM2.6) with a simpler biogeochemistry (miniBLING) displays larger interannual variability, but overestimates the wintertime bloom and captures eddy-bloom coupling in the south but not in the north. The models fail to capture both the magnitude of the wintertime bloom and its modulation by eddies in part because of their failure to capture the observed sharp thermocline and/or nutricline in this region. When CM2.6 is able to capture such features in the Southern part of the basin, eddies modulate diffusive nutrient supply to the surface (a mechanism not previously emphasized in the literature). For the model to simulate the observed wintertime blooms within cyclones, it will be necessary to represent this relatively unusual nutrient structure as well as the cyclonic eddies. This is a challenge in the Northern Arabian Sea as it requires capturing the details of the outflow from the Persian Gulf - something that is poorly done in global models.

Long-term exposure to elevated CO 2 enhances plant community stability by suppressing dominant plant species in a mixed-grass prairie

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zelikova, Tamara Jane; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Williams, David G.

Climate controls vegetation distribution across the globe, and some vegetation types are more vulnerable to climate change, whereas others are more resistant. Because resistance and resilience can influence ecosystem stability and determine how communities and ecosystems respond to climate change, we need to evaluate the potential for resistance as we predict future ecosystem function. In a mixed-grass prairie in the northern Great Plains, in this study we used a large field experiment to test the effects of elevated CO 2, warming, and summer irrigation on plant community structure and productivity, linking changes in both to stability in plant community compositionmore » and biomass production. We show that the independent effects of CO 2 and warming on community composition and productivity depend on interannual variation in precipitation and that the effects of elevated CO 2 are not limited to water saving because they differ from those of irrigation. We also show that production in this mixed-grass prairie ecosystem is not only relatively resistant to interannual variation in precipitation, but also rendered more stable under elevated CO 2 conditions. This increase in production stability is the result of altered community dominance patterns: Community evenness increases as dominant species decrease in biomass under elevated CO 2. In many grasslands that serve as rangelands, the economic value of the ecosystem is largely dependent on plant community composition and the relative abundance of key forage species. Finally, our results have implications for how we manage native grasslands in the face of changing climate.« less

Long-term exposure to elevated CO 2 enhances plant community stability by suppressing dominant plant species in a mixed-grass prairie

DOE PAGES

Zelikova, Tamara Jane; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Williams, David G.; ...

2014-10-13

Climate controls vegetation distribution across the globe, and some vegetation types are more vulnerable to climate change, whereas others are more resistant. Because resistance and resilience can influence ecosystem stability and determine how communities and ecosystems respond to climate change, we need to evaluate the potential for resistance as we predict future ecosystem function. In a mixed-grass prairie in the northern Great Plains, in this study we used a large field experiment to test the effects of elevated CO 2, warming, and summer irrigation on plant community structure and productivity, linking changes in both to stability in plant community compositionmore » and biomass production. We show that the independent effects of CO 2 and warming on community composition and productivity depend on interannual variation in precipitation and that the effects of elevated CO 2 are not limited to water saving because they differ from those of irrigation. We also show that production in this mixed-grass prairie ecosystem is not only relatively resistant to interannual variation in precipitation, but also rendered more stable under elevated CO 2 conditions. This increase in production stability is the result of altered community dominance patterns: Community evenness increases as dominant species decrease in biomass under elevated CO 2. In many grasslands that serve as rangelands, the economic value of the ecosystem is largely dependent on plant community composition and the relative abundance of key forage species. Finally, our results have implications for how we manage native grasslands in the face of changing climate.« less

Modeling the impacts of phenological and inter-annual changes in landscape metrics on local biodiversity of agricultural lands of Eastern Ontario using multi-spatial and multi-temporal remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alavi-Shoushtari, N.; King, D.

2017-12-01

Agricultural landscapes are highly variable ecosystems and are home to many local farmland species. Seasonal, phenological and inter-annual agricultural landscape dynamics have potential to affect the richness and abundance of farmland species. Remote sensing provides data and techniques which enable monitoring landscape changes in multiple temporal and spatial scales. MODIS high temporal resolution remote sensing images enable detection of seasonal and phenological trends, while Landsat higher spatial resolution images, with its long term archive enables inter-annual trend analysis over several decades. The objective of this study to use multi-spatial and multi-temporal remote sensing data to model the response of farmland species to landscape metrics. The study area is the predominantly agricultural region of eastern Ontario. 92 sample landscapes were selected within this region using a protocol designed to maximize variance in composition and configuration heterogeneity while controlling for amount of forest and spatial autocorrelation. Two sample landscape extents (1×1km and 3×3km) were selected to analyze the impacts of spatial scale on biodiversity response. Gamma diversity index data for four taxa groups (birds, butterflies, plants, and beetles) were collected during the summers of 2011 and 2012 within the cropped area of each landscape. To extract the seasonal and phenological metrics a 2000-2012 MODIS NDVI time-series was used, while a 1985-2012 Landsat time-series was used to model the inter-annual trends of change in the sample landscapes. The results of statistical modeling showed significant relationships between farmland biodiversity for several taxa and the phenological and inter-annual variables. The following general results were obtained: 1) Among the taxa groups, plant and beetles diversity was most significantly correlated with the phenological variables; 2) Those phenological variables which are associated with the variability in the start of season date across the sample landscapes and the variability in the corresponding NDVI values at that date showed the strongest correlation with the biodiversity indices; 3) The significance of the models improved when using 3×3km site extent both for MODIS and Landsat based models due most likely to the larger sample size over 3x3km.

An underestimated role of precipitation frequency in regulating summer soil moisture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Chaoyang; Chen, Jing M.; Pumpanen, Jukka

2012-04-26

Soil moisture induced droughts are expected to become more frequent under future global climate change. Precipitation has been previously assumed to be mainly responsible for variability in summer soil moisture. However, little is known about the impacts of precipitation frequency on summer soil moisture, either interannually or spatially. To better understand the temporal and spatial drivers of summer drought, 415 site yr measurements observed at 75 flux sites world wide were used to analyze the temporal and spatial relationships between summer soil water content (SWC) and the precipitation frequencies at various temporal scales, i.e., from half-hourly, 3, 6, 12 andmore » 24 h measurements. Summer precipitation was found to be an indicator of interannual SWC variability with r of 0.49 (p < 0.001) for the overall dataset. However, interannual variability in summer SWC was also significantly correlated with the five precipitation frequencies and the sub-daily precipitation frequencies seemed to explain the interannual SWC variability better than the total of precipitation. Spatially, all these precipitation frequencies were better indicators of summer SWC than precipitation totals, but these better performances were only observed in non-forest ecosystems. Our results demonstrate that precipitation frequency may play an important role in regulating both interannual and spatial variations of summer SWC, which has probably been overlooked or underestimated. However, the spatial interpretation should carefully consider other factors, such as the plant functional types and soil characteristics of diverse ecoregions.« less

The Effect of Alongcoast Advection on Pacific Northwest Shelf and Slope Water Properties in Relation to Upwelling Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Hally B.; Banas, Neil S.; MacCready, Parker

2018-01-01

The Northern California Current System experiences highly variable seasonal upwelling in addition to larger basin-scale variability, both of which can significantly affect its water chemistry. Salinity and temperature fields from a 7 year ROMS hindcast model of this region (43°N-50°N), along with extensive particle tracking, were used to study interannual variability in water properties over both the upper slope and the midshelf bottom. Variation in slope water properties was an order of magnitude smaller than on the shelf. Furthermore, the primary relationship between temperature and salinity anomalies in midshelf bottom water consisted of variation in density (cold/salty versus warm/fresh), nearly orthogonal to the anomalies along density levels (cold/fresh versus warm/salty) observed on the upper slope. These midshelf anomalies were well-explained (R2 = 0.6) by the combination of interannual variability in local and remote alongshore wind stress, and depth of the California Undercurrent (CUC) core. Lagrangian analysis of upper slope and midshelf bottom water shows that both are affected simultaneously by large-scale alongcoast advection of water through the northern and southern boundaries. The amplitude of anomalies in bottom oxygen and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) on the shelf associated with upwelling variability are larger than those associated with typical variation in alongcoast advection, and are comparable to observed anomalies in this region. However, a large northern intrusion event in 2004 illustrates that particular, large-scale alongcoast advection anomalies can be just as effective as upwelling variability in changing shelf water properties on the interannual scale.

The Effect of Alongcoast Advection on Pacific Northwest Shelf and Slope Water Properties in Relation to Upwelling Variability

PubMed Central

Banas, Neil S.; MacCready, Parker

2018-01-01

Abstract The Northern California Current System experiences highly variable seasonal upwelling in addition to larger basin‐scale variability, both of which can significantly affect its water chemistry. Salinity and temperature fields from a 7 year ROMS hindcast model of this region (43°N–50°N), along with extensive particle tracking, were used to study interannual variability in water properties over both the upper slope and the midshelf bottom. Variation in slope water properties was an order of magnitude smaller than on the shelf. Furthermore, the primary relationship between temperature and salinity anomalies in midshelf bottom water consisted of variation in density (cold/salty versus warm/fresh), nearly orthogonal to the anomalies along density levels (cold/fresh versus warm/salty) observed on the upper slope. These midshelf anomalies were well‐explained (R 2 = 0.6) by the combination of interannual variability in local and remote alongshore wind stress, and depth of the California Undercurrent (CUC) core. Lagrangian analysis of upper slope and midshelf bottom water shows that both are affected simultaneously by large‐scale alongcoast advection of water through the northern and southern boundaries. The amplitude of anomalies in bottom oxygen and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) on the shelf associated with upwelling variability are larger than those associated with typical variation in alongcoast advection, and are comparable to observed anomalies in this region. However, a large northern intrusion event in 2004 illustrates that particular, large‐scale alongcoast advection anomalies can be just as effective as upwelling variability in changing shelf water properties on the interannual scale. PMID:29938149

Contrasting subtropical PV intrusion frequency and their impact on tropospheric Ozone distribution over Pacific Ocean in El-Niño and La-Niña conditions.

PubMed

Nath, Debashis; Chen, Wen; Graf, Hans-F; Lan, Xiaoqiang; Gong, Hainan

2017-09-20

Upper tropospheric equatorial westerly ducts over the Pacific Ocean are the preferred location for Rossby wave breaking events during boreal winter and spring. These subtropical wave breaking events lead to the intrusion of high PV (potential vorticity) air along the extra-tropical tropopause and transport ozone rich dry stratospheric air into the tropics. The intrusion frequency has strong interannual variability due to ENSO (El-Niño/Southern Oscillation), with more events under La-Niña and less under El-Niño conditions. This may result from stronger equatorial westerly ducts and subtropical jets during La-Niña and weaker during El-Niño. It was previously suggested that the interannual variability of the tropospheric ozone distribution over the central-eastern Pacific Ocean is mainly driven by convective activity related to ENSO and that the barotropic nature of the subtropical intrusions restricts the tracers within the UT. However, our analysis shows that tropospheric ozone concentration and subtropical intrusions account ~65% of the co- variability (below 5 km) in the outer tropical (10-25°N) central Pacific Ocean, particularly during La-Niña conditions. Additionally, we find a two-fold increase and westward shift in the intrusion frequency over the Pacific Ocean, due to the climate regime shift in SST pattern during 1997/98.

Ecological Controls on Land-Atmosphere Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goulden, M. L.; Litvak, M. E.; Winston, G.; Miller, S. D.; Read, E.; Elliot, R.

2002-12-01

We have been using long-term eddy covariance to investigate the patterns of energy and CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and a freshwater marsh in California, and also between the atmosphere and a series of boreal forest stands in Manitoba, Canada. Most researchers believe that ecological phenomenon, such as plant herbivore interactions and interspecific differences in plant life-history strategy, are relatively unimportant in determining the interannual and landscape patterns of Land-Atmosphere exchange. However, we have found that interactions between plants and herbivores exert a large control on the interannual patterns of energy and CO2 exchange in the freshwater marsh, and that interspecific differences in plant strategy are critical for understanding the landscape scale patterns of energy and CO2 exchange in the boreal forest. Despite a relatively constant climate and flooding regime at the California marsh, annual Carbon balance varied by 6 tC ha-1 or more from year to year. These deviations were caused in part by variation in herbivory by rodents and insects. Likewise, peak CO2 uptake by boreal forest stands recovering from fire differed less than expected, with a 4-year-old stand assimilating CO2 at rates comparable to that by middle aged stands, and faster than that by old stands. These patterns reflect differences in the life history strategies of the dominant plants, with the youngest stands dominated by fast growing ruderals, the middle aged stands dominated by fast growing competitive species, and the old stands dominated by slow growing stress tolerant species.

Sea level rise and variability around Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tay, Tze-Wei

2014-05-01

Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea, both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. As a result, sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); whilst long term sea level trend is coordinated by the global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability surrounding the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 0.8 mm/yr and 2.7 ± 0.6 mm/yr, respectively. Discounting for their vertical land movements (0.8 ± 2.6 mm/yr and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm/yr, respectively), their pure SLR rates are 1.6 ± 3.4 mm/yr and 1.8 ± 2.8 mm/yr, respectively, which are lower than the global tendency. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian east coast in the range of ± 5 cm with very high correlation coefficient. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies in the Malacca Strait in the range of ± 2 cm with high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index. Seasonally, SLAs are mainly monsoon-driven, in the order of 10-25 cm. Geographically, sea level responds differently to the monsoon: two cycles per year are observed in the Malacca Strait, presumably due to South Asian - Indian Monsoon; while single annual cycle is noted in the remaining region, mostly due to East Asian - Western Pacific Monsoon. These results imply that a narrow topographic constriction off Singapore may separate different modes of annual and interannual sea level variability along coastline of Peninsular Malaysia.

Nonlinear dynamics and predictability in the atmospheric sciences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghil, M.; Kimoto, M.; Neelin, J. D.

1991-01-01

Systematic applications of nonlinear dynamics to studies of the atmosphere and climate are reviewed for the period 1987-1990. Problems discussed include paleoclimatic applications, low-frequency atmospheric variability, and interannual variability of the ocean-atmosphere system. Emphasis is placed on applications of the successive bifurcation approach and the ergodic theory of dynamical systems to understanding and prediction of intraseasonal, interannual, and Quaternary climate changes.

Analysis of the trade-off between high crop yield and low yield instability at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Ari, Tamara; Makowski, David

2016-10-01

Yield dynamics of major crops species vary remarkably among continents. Worldwide distribution of cropland influences both the expected levels and the interannual variability of global yields. An expansion of cultivated land in the most productive areas could theoretically increase global production, but also increase global yield instability if the most productive regions are characterized by high interannual yield variability. In this letter, we use portfolio analysis to quantify the tradeoff between the expected values and the interannual variance of global yield. We compute optimal frontiers for four crop species i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat and show how the distribution of cropland among large world regions can be optimized to either increase expected global crop production or decrease its interannual variability. We also show that a preferential allocation of cropland in the most productive regions can increase global expected yield at the expense of yield stability. Theoretically, optimizing the distribution of a small fraction of total cultivated areas can help find a good compromise between low instability and high crop yields at the global scale.

Bio-Optical Measurements at Ocean Boundaries in Support of SIMBIOS. Chapter 7

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chavez, Francisco P.; Strutton, Peter G.; Schlining, Brian M.

2001-01-01

The equatorial Pacific is a major component of global biogeochemical cycles, due to upwelling that occurs from the coast of South America to beyond 180 deg. This upwelling has significant implications for global CO2 fluxes, as well as primary and secondary production. In addition, this region of the world's oceans represents a large oceanic province over which validation data for Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) are necessary. This project consists of a mooring program and supporting cruise-based measurements aimed at quantifying the spectrum of biological and chemical variability in the equatorial Pacific and obtaining validation data for SeaWiFS. The project has the following general objectives: (1) to understand the relationships between physical forcing, primary production, nutrient supply and the exchange of carbon dioxide between ocean and atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific; (2) to describe the biological and chemical responses to climate and ocean variability; (3) to describe the spatial, seasonal and inter-annual variability in near surface plant pigments, primary production, carbon dioxide and nutrient distributions; and (4) to obtain near real-time bio-optical measurements for validation of SeaWiFS and subsequent ocean color sensors.

Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sharma, Sapna; Magnuson, John J.; Batt, Ryan D.; Winslow, Luke; Korhonen, Johanna; Yasuyuki Aono,

2016-01-01

Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443–2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693–2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality.

Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years

PubMed Central

Sharma, Sapna; Magnuson, John J.; Batt, Ryan D.; Winslow, Luke A.; Korhonen, Johanna; Aono, Yasuyuki

2016-01-01

Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443–2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693–2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality. PMID:27113125

Atmospheric CO2 Record from In Situ Measurements at K-Puszta, Hungary (1981 - 1997)

DOE Data Explorer

Haszpra, Laszlo [Hungarian Meteorological Service, Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Budapest, Hungary

1998-02-23

The K-puszta regional background air pollution monitoring station was established in a clearing in a mixed forest on the Hungarian Great Plain in the middle of the Carpathian Basin. K-puszta is as free from direct pollution as possible in the highly industrialized, densely populated central Europe. Because of the growing vegetation, the station was moved in September 1993 to a larger clearing, also at the same elevation, approximately 500 m from the original site. The region is climatologically calm. The yearly mean atmospheric CO2 concentration at K-puszta, Hungary increased from 354.1 parts per million (ppm) in 1981 to 377.0 ppm in 1997. Because the K-puszta station is located in a clearing of a forested area on the Hungarian Great Plain, it is subject to significant biospheric effects. As a result, the record from K-puszta shows high seasonal and interannual variability. However, the trends and temporal features of the K-puszta record parallel those observed at other Northern Hemisphere baseline air pollution monitoring stations (Haszpra 1995).

Quantitative Estimation of the Climatic Effects of Carbon Transferred by International Trade.

PubMed

Wei, Ting; Dong, Wenjie; Moore, John; Yan, Qing; Song, Yi; Yang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Wenping; Chou, Jieming; Cui, Xuefeng; Yan, Xiaodong; Wei, Zhigang; Guo, Yan; Yang, Shili; Tian, Di; Lin, Pengfei; Yang, Song; Wen, Zhiping; Lin, Hui; Chen, Min; Feng, Guolin; Jiang, Yundi; Zhu, Xian; Chen, Juan; Wei, Xin; Shi, Wen; Zhang, Zhiguo; Dong, Juan; Li, Yexin; Chen, Deliang

2016-06-22

Carbon transfer via international trade affects the spatial pattern of global carbon emissions by redistributing emissions related to production of goods and services. It has potential impacts on attribution of the responsibility of various countries for climate change and formulation of carbon-reduction policies. However, the effect of carbon transfer on climate change has not been quantified. Here, we present a quantitative estimate of climatic impacts of carbon transfer based on a simple CO2 Impulse Response Function and three Earth System Models. The results suggest that carbon transfer leads to a migration of CO2 by 0.1-3.9 ppm or 3-9% of the rise in the global atmospheric concentrations from developed countries to developing countries during 1990-2005 and potentially reduces the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol by up to 5.3%. However, the induced atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate changes (e.g., in temperature, ocean heat content, and sea-ice) are very small and lie within observed interannual variability. Given continuous growth of transferred carbon emissions and their proportion in global total carbon emissions, the climatic effect of traded carbon is likely to become more significant in the future, highlighting the need to consider carbon transfer in future climate negotiations.

Annually and monthly resolved solar irradiance and atmospheric temperature data across the Hawaiian archipelago from 1998 to 2015 with interannual summary statistics.

PubMed

Bryce, Richard; Losada Carreño, Ignacio; Kumler, Andrew; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Roberts, Billy; Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo

2018-08-01

This article contains data and summary statistics of solar irradiance and dry bulb temperature across the Hawaiian archipelago resolved on a monthly basis and spanning years 1998-2015. This data was derived in association with an article titled "Consequences of Neglecting the Interannual Variability of the Solar Resource: A Case Study of Photovoltaic Power Among the Hawaiian Islands" (Bryce et al., 2018 [7]). The solar irradiance data is presented in terms of Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI), Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (DHI), and Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and was obtained from the satellite-derived data contained in the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). The temperature data is also obtained from this source. We have processed the NSRDB data and compiled these monthly resolved data sets, along with interannual summary statistics including the interannual coefficient of variability.

Radiative forcing over the conterminous United States due to contemporary land cover land use change and sensitivity to snow and interannual albedo variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnes, Christopher A.; Roy, David P.

2010-01-01

Satellite-derived land cover land use (LCLU), snow and albedo data, and incoming surface solar radiation reanalysis data were used to study the impact of LCLU change from 1973 to 2000 on surface albedo and radiative forcing for 58 ecoregions covering 69% of the conterminous United States. A net positive surface radiative forcing (i.e., warming) of 0.029 Wm−2 due to LCLU albedo change from 1973 to 2000 was estimated. The forcings for individual ecoregions were similar in magnitude to current global forcing estimates, with the most negative forcing (as low as −0.367 Wm−2) due to the transition to forest and the most positive forcing (up to 0.337 Wm−2) due to the conversion to grass/shrub. Snow exacerbated both negative and positive forcing for LCLU transitions between snow-hiding and snow-revealing LCLU classes. The surface radiative forcing estimates were highly sensitive to snow-free interannual albedo variability that had a percent average monthly variation from 1.6% to 4.3% across the ecoregions. The results described in this paper enhance our understanding of contemporary LCLU change on surface radiative forcing and suggest that future forcing estimates should model snow and interannual albedo variation.

Exchange of CO2 in Arctic tundra: impacts of meteorological variations and biological disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Blanco, Efrén; Lund, Magnus; Williams, Mathew; Tamstorf, Mikkel P.; Westergaard-Nielsen, Andreas; Exbrayat, Jean-François; Hansen, Birger U.; Christensen, Torben R.

2017-10-01

An improvement in our process-based understanding of carbon (C) exchange in the Arctic and its climate sensitivity is critically needed for understanding the response of tundra ecosystems to a changing climate. In this context, we analysed the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 in West Greenland tundra (64° N) across eight snow-free periods in 8 consecutive years, and characterized the key processes of net ecosystem exchange and its two main modulating components: gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco). Overall, the ecosystem acted as a consistent sink of CO2, accumulating -30 g C m-2 on average (range of -17 to -41 g C m-2) during the years 2008-2015, except 2011 (source of 41 g C m-2), which was associated with a major pest outbreak. The results do not reveal a marked meteorological effect on the net CO2 uptake despite the high interannual variability in the timing of snowmelt and the start and duration of the growing season. The ranges in annual GPP (-182 to -316 g C m-2) and Reco (144 to 279 g C m-2) were > 5 fold larger than the range in NEE. Gross fluxes were also more variable (coefficients of variation are 3.6 and 4.1 % respectively) than for NEE (0.7 %). GPP and Reco were sensitive to insolation and temperature, and there was a tendency towards larger GPP and Reco during warmer and wetter years. The relative lack of sensitivity of NEE to meteorology was a result of the correlated response of GPP and Reco. During the snow-free season of the anomalous year of 2011, a biological disturbance related to a larvae outbreak reduced GPP more strongly than Reco. With continued warming temperatures and longer growing seasons, tundra systems will increase rates of C cycling. However, shifts in sink strength will likely be triggered by factors such as biological disturbances, events that will challenge our forecasting of C states.

Alleviating tropical Atlantic sector biases in the Kiel climate model by enhancing horizontal and vertical atmosphere model resolution: climatology and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harlaß, Jan; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

2018-04-01

We investigate the quality of simulating tropical Atlantic (TA) sector climatology and interannual variability in integrations of the Kiel climate model (KCM) with varying atmosphere model resolution. The ocean model resolution is kept fixed. A reasonable simulation of TA sector annual-mean climate, seasonal cycle and interannual variability can only be achieved at sufficiently high horizontal and vertical atmospheric resolution. Two major reasons for the improvements are identified. First, the western equatorial Atlantic westerly surface wind bias in spring can be largely eliminated, which is explained by a better representation of meridional and especially vertical zonal momentum transport. The enhanced atmospheric circulation along the equator in turn greatly improves the thermal structure of the upper equatorial Atlantic with much reduced warm sea surface temperature (SST) biases. Second, the coastline in the southeastern TA and steep orography are better resolved at high resolution, which improves wind structure and in turn reduces warm SST biases in the Benguela upwelling region. The strongly diminished wind and SST biases at high atmosphere model resolution allow for a more realistic latitudinal position of the intertropical convergence zone. Resulting stronger cross-equatorial winds, in conjunction with a shallower thermocline, enable a rapid cold tongue development in the eastern TA in boreal spring. This enables simulation of realistic interannual SST variability and its seasonal phase locking in the KCM, which primarily is the result of a stronger thermocline feedback. Our findings suggest that enhanced atmospheric resolution, both vertical and horizontal, could be a key to achieving more realistic simulation of TA climatology and interannual variability in climate models.

Relationships between large-scale circulation patterns and carbon dioxide exchange by a deciduous forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jingyong; Wu, Lingyun; Huang, Gang; Notaro, Michael

2011-02-01

In this study, we focus on a deciduous forest in central Massachusetts and investigate the relationships between global climate indices and CO2 exchange using eddy-covariance flux measurements from 1992 to 2007. Results suggest that large-scale circulation patterns influence the annual CO2 exchange in the forest through their effects on the local surface climate. Annual gross ecosystem exchange (GEE) in the forest is closely associated with spring El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), previous fall Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and previous winter East Pacific-North Pacific (EP-NP) pattern. Annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) responds to previous fall AMO and PDO, while annual respiration (R) is impacted by previous fall ENSO and Pacific/North American Oscillation (PNA). Regressions based on these relationships are developed to simulate the annual GEE, NEE, and R. To avoid problems of multicollinearity, we compute a "Composite Index for GEE (CIGEE)" based on a linear combination of spring ENSO and PDO, fall AMO, and winter EP-NP and a "Composite Index for R (CIR)" based on a linear combination of fall ENSO and PNA. CIGEE, CIR, and fall AMO and PDO can explain 41, 27, and 40% of the variance of the annual GEE, R, and NEE, respectively. We further apply the methodology to two other northern midlatitude forests and find that interannual variabilities in NEE of the two forests are largely controlled by large-scale circulation patterns. This study suggests that global climate indices provide the potential for predicting CO2 exchange variability in the northern midlatitude forests.

Impacts of large-scale climatic disturbances on the terrestrial carbon cycle.

PubMed

Erbrecht, Tim; Lucht, Wolfgang

2006-07-27

The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere steadily increases as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions but with large interannual variability caused by the terrestrial biosphere. These variations in the CO2 growth rate are caused by large-scale climate anomalies but the relative contributions of vegetation growth and soil decomposition is uncertain. We use a biogeochemical model of the terrestrial biosphere to differentiate the effects of temperature and precipitation on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) during the two largest anomalies in atmospheric CO2 increase during the last 25 years. One of these, the smallest atmospheric year-to-year increase (largest land carbon uptake) in that period, was caused by global cooling in 1992/93 after the Pinatubo volcanic eruption. The other, the largest atmospheric increase on record (largest land carbon release), was caused by the strong El Niño event of 1997/98. We find that the LPJ model correctly simulates the magnitude of terrestrial modulation of atmospheric carbon anomalies for these two extreme disturbances. The response of soil respiration to changes in temperature and precipitation explains most of the modelled anomalous CO2 flux. Observed and modelled NEE anomalies are in good agreement, therefore we suggest that the temporal variability of heterotrophic respiration produced by our model is reasonably realistic. We therefore conclude that during the last 25 years the two largest disturbances of the global carbon cycle were strongly controlled by soil processes rather then the response of vegetation to these large-scale climatic events.

Impacts of large-scale climatic disturbances on the terrestrial carbon cycle

PubMed Central

Erbrecht, Tim; Lucht, Wolfgang

2006-01-01

Background The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere steadily increases as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions but with large interannual variability caused by the terrestrial biosphere. These variations in the CO2 growth rate are caused by large-scale climate anomalies but the relative contributions of vegetation growth and soil decomposition is uncertain. We use a biogeochemical model of the terrestrial biosphere to differentiate the effects of temperature and precipitation on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) during the two largest anomalies in atmospheric CO2 increase during the last 25 years. One of these, the smallest atmospheric year-to-year increase (largest land carbon uptake) in that period, was caused by global cooling in 1992/93 after the Pinatubo volcanic eruption. The other, the largest atmospheric increase on record (largest land carbon release), was caused by the strong El Niño event of 1997/98. Results We find that the LPJ model correctly simulates the magnitude of terrestrial modulation of atmospheric carbon anomalies for these two extreme disturbances. The response of soil respiration to changes in temperature and precipitation explains most of the modelled anomalous CO2 flux. Conclusion Observed and modelled NEE anomalies are in good agreement, therefore we suggest that the temporal variability of heterotrophic respiration produced by our model is reasonably realistic. We therefore conclude that during the last 25 years the two largest disturbances of the global carbon cycle were strongly controlled by soil processes rather then the response of vegetation to these large-scale climatic events. PMID:16930463

What is the Effect of Interannual Hydroclimatic Variability on Water Supply Reservoir Operations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Turner, S. W. D.

2015-12-01

Rather than deriving from a single distribution and uniform persistence structure, hydroclimatic data exhibit significant trends and shifts in their mean, variance, and lagged correlation through time. Consequentially, observed and reconstructed streamflow records are often characterized by features of interannual variability, including long-term persistence and prolonged droughts. This study examines the effect of these features on the operating performance of water supply reservoirs. We develop a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) model that can incorporate a regime-shifting climate variable. We then compare the performance of operating policies—designed with and without climate variable—to quantify the contribution of interannual variability to standard policy sub-optimality. The approach uses a discrete-time Markov chain to partition the reservoir inflow time series into small number of 'hidden' climate states. Each state defines a distinct set of inflow transition probability matrices, which are used by the SDP model to condition the release decisions on the reservoir storage, current-period inflow and hidden climate state. The experimental analysis is carried out on 99 hypothetical water supply reservoirs fed from pristine catchments in Australia—all impacted by the Millennium drought. Results show that interannual hydroclimatic variability is a major cause of sub-optimal hedging decisions. The practical import is that conventional optimization methods may misguide operators, particularly in regions susceptible to multi-year droughts.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 13; Interannual Variability and Potential Predictability in Reanalysis Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Min, Wei; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, Max J. (Editor)

1997-01-01

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at Goddard Space Flight Center and the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) have produced multi-year global assimilations of historical data employing fixed analysis systems. These "reanalysis" products are ideally suited for studying short-term climatic variations. The availability of multiple reanalysis products also provides the opportunity to examine the uncertainty in the reanalysis data. The purpose of this document is to provide an updated estimate of seasonal and interannual variability based on the DAO and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for the 15-year period 1980-1995. Intercomparisons of the seasonal means and their interannual variations are presented for a variety of prognostic and diagnostic fields. In addition, atmospheric potential predictability is re-examined employing selected DAO reanalysis variables.

Seasonal and interannual variability of chlorophyll-a and associated physical synchronous variability in the western tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Xueyan; Dong, Qing; Xue, Cunjin; Wu, Shuchao

2016-06-01

Based on long-term satellite-derived ocean data sets and methods of empirical orthogonal function and singular value decomposition, we investigated the spatiotemporal variability of the chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL) on seasonal and interannual timescales in the western tropical Pacific associated with physical ocean variables of sea surface temperature (SST), sea level anomaly (SLA) and sea surface wind (SSW), and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. The bio-physical synchronous variation on interannual timescale was also confirmed in terms of the scales of variability and oscillation periods in the time-frequency space using the methods of Fourier transform, Morlet wavelet transform, and wavelet coherence analysis. On a seasonal timescale, the first two modes of the monthly mean CHL fields described the consecutive spatiotemporal variation in CHL in the western tropical Pacific. CHL reached the maximum during late winter-early spring and minimum during summer-early autumn with the exception of the northeast of Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. The CHL bloom in boreal winter-spring was closely associated with cold SST, high sea level along the North Equatorial Countercurrent meanders, and strong wind. On an interannual timescale, the variability of CHL exhibited a close correlation with SST, SLA, SSW, and ENSO. During El Niño, CHL increased in the oligotrophic western basin of the warm pool associated with cold SST, low SLA, and strong westerly winds but decreased in the mesotrophic eastern basin of the warm pool in association with warm SST, high SLA, and weak easterly trade winds. There may exist time-lag for the bio-physical covariation, i.e., CHL and SST varied simultaneously within 1 month, and CHL variations led SLA by approximately 0-3 months but lagged wind speed by about 1 month. In the time-frequency domain, the interannual variability in CHL and physical ocean variables had high common power, indicating that the variability scales and oscillation periods of CHL were significantly related to these of SST, SLA, and ENSO index. The significant anti-phase relationships were also shown between CHL and SST, CHL and SLA, and CHL and multivariate ENSO index through the wavelet coherence analysis.

Interannual variability of temperature in the UTLS region over Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basin based on COSMIC GNSS RO data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khandu; Awange, Joseph L.; Forootan, Ehsan

2016-04-01

Poor reliability of radiosonde records across South Asia imposes serious challenges in understanding the structure of upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric (UTLS) region. The Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) mission launched in April 2006 has overcome many observational limitations inherent in conventional atmospheric sounding instruments. This study examines the interannual variability of UTLS temperature over the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river basin in South Asia using monthly averaged COSMIC radio occultation (RO) data, together with two global reanalyses. Comparisons between August 2006 and December 2013 indicate that MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research Application) and ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis) are warmer than COSMIC RO data by 2 °C between 200 and 50 hPa levels. These warm biases with respect to COSMIC RO data are found to be consistent over time. The UTLS temperature show considerable interannual variability from 2006 to 2013 in addition to warming (cooling) trends in the troposphere (stratosphere). The cold (warm) anomalies in the upper troposphere (tropopause region) are found to be associated with warm ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) phase, while quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is negatively (positively) correlated with temperature anomalies at 70 hPa (50 hPa) level. PCA (principal component analysis) decomposition of tropopause temperatures and heights over the basin indicate that ENSO accounts for 73 % of the interannual (non-seasonal) variability with a correlation of 0.77 with Niño3.4 index whereas the QBO explains about 10 % of the variability. The largest tropopause anomaly associated with ENSO occurs during the winter, when ENSO reaches its peak. The tropopause temperature (height) increased (decreased) by about 1.5 °C (300 m) during the last major El Niño event of 2009/2010. In general, we find decreasing (increasing) trend in tropopause temperature (height) between 2006 and 2013.

Variability of the martian seasonal CO2 cap extent over eight Mars Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piqueux, Sylvain; Kleinböhl, Armin; Hayne, Paul O.; Kass, David M.; Schofield, John T.; McCleese, Daniel J.

2015-05-01

We present eight Mars Years of nearly continuous tracking of the CO2 seasonal cap edges from Mars Year (MY) 24 to 31 using Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) thermal infrared data. Spatial and temporal resolutions are 1 pixel per degree and 10°Ls (aerocentric longitude of the Sun). The seasonal caps are defined as the regions where the diurnal radiometric temperature variations at ∼32 μm wavelength do not exceed 5 K. With this definition, terrains with small areal fraction of defrosted regolith able to experience measurable diurnal temperature cycles are not mapped as part of the cap. This technique is adequate to distinguish CO2 from H2O ices, and effective during the polar night or under low illumination conditions. The present analysis answers outstanding questions stemming from fragmented observations at visible wavelengths: (1) the previously sparsely documented growth of the North seasonal caps (160° < Ls < 270°) is shown to be repeatable within 1-2° equivalent latitude, and monotonic over the MY 24-31 time period; high repeatability is observed during the retreat of the caps in non-dusty years (∼1° or less equivalent latitude); (2) the MY 25 storm does not seem to have impacted the growth rate, maximal extents, or recession rate of the North seasonal caps, whereas the MY 28 dust storm clearly sped up the recession of the cap (∼2° smaller on average after the storm, during the recession, compared to other years); (3) during non-dusty years, the growth of the South seasonal cap (350° < Ls < 100°) presents noticeable variability (up to ∼4° equivalent latitude near Ls = 20°) with a maximum extent reached near Ls = 90°; (4) the retreat of the Southern seasonal cap (100° < Ls < 310°) exhibits large inter-annual variability, especially near 190° < Ls < 220°; (5) the recession of the MY 25 South seasonal cap is significantly accelerated during the equinox global dust storm, with surface temperatures suggesting increased patchiness or enhanced dust mantling on the CO2 ice. These results suggest that atmospheric temperatures and dust loading are the primary source of variability in an otherwise remarkably repeatable cycle of seasonal cap growth and recession.

Climate-driven changes to the atmospheric CO2 sink in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean.

PubMed

Dore, John E; Lukas, Roger; Sadler, Daniel W; Karl, David M

2003-08-14

The oceans represent a significant sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variability in the strength of this sink occurs on interannual timescales, as a result of regional and basin-scale changes in the physical and biological parameters that control the flux of this greenhouse gas into and out of the surface mixed layer. Here we analyse a 13-year time series of oceanic carbon dioxide measurements from station ALOHA in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean near Hawaii, and find a significant decrease in the strength of the carbon dioxide sink over the period 1989-2001. We show that much of this reduction in sink strength can be attributed to an increase in the partial pressure of surface ocean carbon dioxide caused by excess evaporation and the accompanying concentration of solutes in the water mass. Our results suggest that carbon dioxide uptake by ocean waters can be strongly influenced by changes in regional precipitation and evaporation patterns brought on by climate variability.

Using Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections to Analyze Interannual Precipitation Variability in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephan, C.; Klingaman, N. P.; Vidale, P. L.; Turner, A. G.; Demory, M. E.; Guo, L.

2017-12-01

Interannual rainfall variability in China affects agriculture, infrastructure and water resource management. A consistent and objective method, Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis, is applied to precipitation observations over China in all seasons. Instead of maximizing the explained space-time variance, the method identifies regions in China that best explain the temporal variability in domain-averaged rainfall. It produces known teleconnections, that include high positive correlations with ENSO in eastern China in winter, along the Yangtze River in summer, and in southeast China during spring. New findings include that variability along the southeast coast in winter, in the Yangtze valley in spring, and in eastern China in autumn, are associated with extratropical Rossby wave trains. The same analysis is applied to six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model with and without air-sea coupling and at various horizontal resolutions of 40, 90 and 200 km. All simulations reproduce the observed patterns of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are all patterns associated with the observed physical mechanism. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. Finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. Evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient; attention must be paid to associated mechanisms.

Variability and prediction of freshwater and nitrate fluxes for the Louisiana-Texas shelf: Mississippi and Atchafalaya River source functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bratkovich, A.; Dinnel, S.P.; Goolsby, D.A.

1994-01-01

Time histories of riverine water discharge, nitrate concentration, and nitrate, flux have been analyzed for the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers. Results indicate that water discharge variability is dominated by the annual cycle and shorter-time-scale episodic events presumably associated with snowmelt runoff and spring or summer rains. Interannual variability in water discharge is relatively small compared to the above. In contrast, nitrate concentration exhibits strongest variability at decadal time scales. The interannual variability is not monotonic but more complicated in structure. Weak covariability between water discharge and nitrate concentration leads to a relatively “noisy” nitrate flux signal. Nitrate flux variations exhibit a low-amplitude, long-term modulation of a dominant annual cycle. Predictor-hindcastor analyses indicate that skilled forecasts of nitrate concentration and nitrate flux fields are feasible. Water discharge was the most reliably hindcast (on seasonal to interannual time scales) due to the fundamental strength of the annual hydrologic cycle. However, the forecasting effort for this variable was less successful than the hindcasting effort, mostly due to a phase shift in the annual cycle during our relatively short test period (18 mo). Nitrate concentration was more skillfully predicted (seasonal to interannual time scales) due to the relative dominance of the decadal-scale portion of the signal. Nitrate flux was also skillfully forecast even though historical analyses seemed to indicate that it should be more difficult to predict than either water discharge or nitrate concentration.

Storm-tracks interannual variability and large-scale climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

In this study we focus on the interannual variability and observed changes in northern hemisphere mid-latitude storm-tracks and relate them to large scale atmospheric circulation variability modes. Extratropical storminess, cyclones dominant paths, frequency and intensity have long been the object of climatological studies. The analysis of storm characteristics and historical trends presented here is based on the cyclone detecting and tracking algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region (Trigo et al. 1999) and recently extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region (Trigo 2006). The objective methodology, which identifies and follows individual lows as minima in SLP fields, fulfilling a set of conditions regarding the central pressure and the pressure gradient, is applied to the northern hemisphere 6-hourly geopotential data at 1000 hPa from the 20th Century Reanalyses (20CRv2) project and from reanalyses datasets provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA-40 and ERA Interim reanalyses. First, we assess the interannual variability and cyclone frequency trends for each of the datasets, for the 20th century and for the period between 1958 and 2002 using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 data. Results show that winter variability of storm paths, cyclone frequency and travel times is in agreement with the reported variability in a number of large-scale climate patterns (including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic Pattern and the Scandinavian Pattern). In addition, three storm-track databases are built spanning the common available extended winter seasons from October 1979 to March 2002. Although relatively short, this common period allows a comparison of systems represented in reanalyses datasets with distinct horizontal resolutions. This exercise is mostly focused on the key areas of cyclogenesis and cyclolysis and main cyclone characteristics over the northern hemisphere. Trigo IF., TD Davies, GR Bigg (1999) Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region. J. Climate 12: 1685-1696. Trigo IF (2006) Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Clim. Dyn. 26: 127-143.

Variability of Arctic Sea Ice as Determined from Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

1999-01-01

The compiled, quality-controlled satellite multichannel passive-microwave record of polar sea ice now spans over 18 years, from November 1978 through December 1996, and is revealing considerable information about the Arctic sea ice cover and its variability. The information includes data on ice concentrations (percent areal coverages of ice), ice extents, ice melt, ice velocities, the seasonal cycle of the ice, the interannual variability of the ice, the frequency of ice coverage, and the length of the sea ice season. The data reveal marked regional and interannual variabilities, as well as some statistically significant trends. For the north polar ice cover as a whole, maximum ice extents varied over a range of 14,700,000 - 15,900,000 sq km, while individual regions experienced much greater percent variations, for instance, with the Greenland Sea having a range of 740,000 - 1,110,000 sq km in its yearly maximum ice coverage. In spite of the large variations from year to year and region to region, overall the Arctic ice extents showed a statistically significant, 2.80% / decade negative trend over the 18.2-year period. Ice season lengths, which vary from only a few weeks near the ice margins to the full year in the large region of perennial ice coverage, also experienced interannual variability, along with spatially coherent overall trends. Linear least squares trends show the sea ice season to have lengthened in much of the Bering Sea, Baffin Bay, the Davis Strait, and the Labrador Sea, but to have shortened over a much larger area, including the Sea of Okhotsk, the Greenland Sea, the Barents Sea, and the southeastern Arctic.

How potentially predictable are midlatitude ocean currents?

PubMed Central

Nonaka, Masami; Sasai, Yoshikazu; Sasaki, Hideharu; Taguchi, Bunmei; Nakamura, Hisashi

2016-01-01

Predictability of atmospheric variability is known to be limited owing to significant uncertainty that arises from intrinsic variability generated independently of external forcing and/or boundary conditions. Observed atmospheric variability is therefore regarded as just a single realization among different dynamical states that could occur. In contrast, subject to wind, thermal and fresh-water forcing at the surface, the ocean circulation has been considered to be rather deterministic under the prescribed atmospheric forcing, and it still remains unknown how uncertain the upper-ocean circulation variability is. This study evaluates how much uncertainty the oceanic interannual variability can potentially have, through multiple simulations with an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model driven by the observed interannually-varying atmospheric forcing under slightly different conditions. These ensemble “hindcast” experiments have revealed substantial uncertainty due to intrinsic variability in the extratropical ocean circulation that limits potential predictability of its interannual variability, especially along the strong western boundary currents (WBCs) in mid-latitudes, including the Kuroshio and its eastward extention. The intrinsic variability also greatly limits potential predictability of meso-scale oceanic eddy activity. These findings suggest that multi-member ensemble simulations are essential for understanding and predicting variability in the WBCs, which are important for weather and climate variability and marine ecosystems. PMID:26831954

Modelling carbon and water fluxes at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balzarolo, M.; Balsamo, G.; Barbu, A.; Boussetta, S.; Calvet, J.-C.; Chevallier, F.; de Vries, J.; Kullmann, L.; Lafont, S.; Maignan, F.; Papale, D.; Poulter, B.

2012-04-01

Modelling and predicting seasonal and inter-annual variability of terrestrial carbon and water fluxes play an important role in understanding processes and interactions between plant-atmosphere and climate. Testing the model's capability to simulate fluxes across and within the ecosystems against eddy covariance data is essential. Thanks to the existing eddy covariance (EC) networks (e.g FLUXNET), where CO2 and water exchanges are continuously measured, it is now possible to verify the model's goodness at global scale. This paper reports the outcomes of the verification activities of the Land Carbon Core Information Service (LC-CIS) of the Geoland2 European project. The three used land surface models are C-TESSEL from ECMWF, SURFEX from CNRM and ORCHIDEE from IPSL. These models differ in their hypotheses used to describe processes and the interactions between ecological compartments (plant, soil and atmosphere) and climate and environmental conditions. Results of the verification and model benchmarking are here presented. Surface fluxes of the models are verified against FLUXNET sites representing main worldwide Plant Functional Types (PFTs: forest, grassland and cropland). The quality and accuracy of the EC data is verified using the CarboEurope database methodology. Modelled carbon and water fluxes magnitude, daily and annual cycles, inter-annual anomalies are verified against eddy covariance data using robust statistical analysis (r, RMSE, E, BE). We also verify the performance of the models in predicting the functional responses of Gross Primary Production (GPP) and RE (Ecosystem Respiration) to the environmental driving variables (i.e. temperature, soil water content and radiation) by comparing the functional relationships obtained from the outputs and observed data. Obtained results suggest some ways of improving such models for global carbon modelling.

Soil moisture influence on the interannual variation in temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon mineralization in the Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y. J.; Guo, S. L.; Zhao, M.; Du, L. L.; Li, R. J.; Jiang, J. S.; Wang, R.; Li, N. N.

2015-06-01

Temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon (SOC) mineralization (i.e., Q10) determines how strong the feedback from global warming may be on the atmospheric CO2 concentration; thus, understanding the factors influencing the interannual variation in Q10 is important for accurately estimating local soil carbon cycle. In situ SOC mineralization rate was measured using an automated CO2 flux system (Li-8100) in long-term bare fallow soil in the Loess Plateau (35°12' N, 107°40' E) in Changwu, Shaanxi, China from 2008 to 2013. The results showed that the annual cumulative SOC mineralization ranged from 226 to 298 g C m-2 yr-1, with a mean of 253 g C m-2 yr-1 and a coefficient of variation (CV) of 13%, annual Q10 ranged from 1.48 to 1.94, with a mean of 1.70 and a CV of 10%, and annual soil moisture content ranged from 38.6 to 50.7% soil water-filled pore space (WFPS), with a mean of 43.8% WFPS and a CV of 11%, which were mainly affected by the frequency and distribution of precipitation. Annual Q10 showed a quadratic correlation with annual mean soil moisture content. In conclusion, understanding of the relationships between interannual variation in Q10, soil moisture, and precipitation are important to accurately estimate the local carbon cycle, especially under the changing climate.

A model analysis of climate and CO2 controls on tree growth in a semi-arid woodland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, G.; Harrison, S. P.; Prentice, I. C.

2015-03-01

We used a light-use efficiency model of photosynthesis coupled with a dynamic carbon allocation and tree-growth model to simulate annual growth of the gymnosperm Callitris columellaris in the semi-arid Great Western Woodlands, Western Australia, over the past 100 years. Parameter values were derived from independent observations except for sapwood specific respiration rate, fine-root turnover time, fine-root specific respiration rate and the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area, which were estimated by Bayesian optimization. The model reproduced the general pattern of interannual variability in radial growth (tree-ring width), including the response to the shift in precipitation regimes that occurred in the 1960s. Simulated and observed responses to climate were consistent. Both showed a significant positive response of tree-ring width to total photosynthetically active radiation received and to the ratio of modeled actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration, and a significant negative response to vapour pressure deficit. However, the simulations showed an enhancement of radial growth in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm) ([CO2]) during recent decades that is not present in the observations. The discrepancy disappeared when the model was recalibrated on successive 30-year windows. Then the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area increases by 14% (from 0.127 to 0.144 kg C m-2) as [CO2] increased while the other three estimated parameters remained constant. The absence of a signal of increasing [CO2] has been noted in many tree-ring records, despite the enhancement of photosynthetic rates and water-use efficiency resulting from increasing [CO2]. Our simulations suggest that this behaviour could be explained as a consequence of a shift towards below-ground carbon allocation.

Modelling the Response of Energy, Water and CO2 Fluxes Over Forests to Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ju, W.; Chen, J.; Liu, J.; Chen, B.

2004-05-01

Understanding the response of energy, water and CO2 fluxes of terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability at various temporal scales is of interest to climate change research. To simulate carbon (C) and water dynamics and their interactions at the continental scale with high temporal and spatial resolutions, the remote sensing driven BEPS (Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator) model was updated to couple with the soil model of CENTURY and a newly developed biophysical model. This coupled model separates the whole canopy into two layers. For the top layer, the leaf-level conductance is scaled up to canopy level using a sunlit and shaded leaf separation approach. Fluxes of water, and CO{2} are simulated as the sums of those from sunlit and shaded leaves separately. This new approach allows for close coupling in modeling these fluxes. The whole profile of soil under a seasonal snowpack is split into four layers for estimating soil moisture and temperature. Long-term means of the vegetation productivity and climate are employed to initialize the carbon pools for the computation of heterotrophic respiration. Validated against tower data at four forested sites, this model is able to describe these fluxes and their response to climate variability. The model captures over 55% of year-round half/one hourly variances of these fluxes. The highest agreement of model results with tower data was achieved for CO2 flux at Southern Old Aspen (SOA) (R2>0.85 and RMSE<2.37 μ mol C m-2 s-1, N=17520). However, the model slightly overestimates the diurnal amplitude of sensible heat flux in winter and sometimes underestimates that of CO2 flux in the growing season. Model simulations suggest that C uptakes of forests are controlled by climate variability and the response of C cycle to climate depends on forest type. For SOA, the annual NPP (Net Primary Productivity) is more sensitive to temperature than to precipitation. This forest usually has higher NPP in warm years than in cool years. Interannual variability of heterotrophic respiration, however, is strongly related to precipitation. The soil releases more CO2 in wet years than in dry years. Warm and relatively dry climate enhances the C uptake in this forest stand. Compared with SOA, a temperate deciduous forest in the southern part of the temperate deciduous forest biome in eastern United States responds to climate variability differently. High temperature and low precipitation in the growing season reduces NPP and consequently NEP (Net Ecosystem Productivity). In warm years, the Southern Old Jack Pine forest uptakes less C than in cool years. The modeled heterotrophic respiration and NEP are very sensitive to soil moisture and the empirical equation used to describe the effect of soil moisture on decomposition. This suggests that hydrological modelling is critical in C budget estimation. Next step, this model will be validated against more tower data and used for upscaling from site to region.

Inter-annual variability and spatial coherence of net primary productivity across a western Oregon Cascades landscape

Treesearch

Travis J. Woolley; Mark E. Harmon; Kari B. O’Connell

2015-01-01

Inter-annual variability (IAV) of forest Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is a function of both extrinsic (e.g., climate) and intrinsic (e.g., stand dynamics) drivers. As estimates of NPP in forests are scaled from trees to stands to the landscape, an understanding of the relative effects of these factors on spatial and temporal behavior of NPP is important. Although a...

Preface and brief synthesis for the FOODBANCS volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Craig R.; DeMaster, David J.

2008-11-01

In this volume we present results from the FOODBANCS Project, which examined the fate and benthic community impact of summer bloom material on the West Antarctic Peninsula shelf floor. The project involved a 5-cruise, 15-month time-series program in which sediment-trap moorings, core sampling, radiochemical profiling, sediment respirometry, bottom photography, and bottom trawling were used to evaluate: (1) seafloor deposition and lability of POC, (2) patterns of labile POC consumption and sediment mixing by benthos, and (3) seasonal and inter-annual variations in biotic abundance, biomass, reproductive condition, recruitment, and sediment community respiration. We find that the seafloor flux and accumulation of particulate organic carbon on the West Antarctic Peninsula shelf exhibit intense seasonal and interannual variability. Nonetheless, many key benthic processes, including organic-matter degradation, bioturbation, deposit feeding, and faunal abundance, reproduction and recruitment, show relatively muted response to this intense seasonal and inter-annual variability in export flux. We thus hypothesize that benthic ecosystems on the Antarctic shelf act as "low-pass" filters, and may be extremely useful in resolving the impacts of climatic change over periods of years to decades in Antarctic Peninsula region.

Driving terrestrial ecosystem models from space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waring, R. H.

1993-01-01

Regional air pollution, land-use conversion, and projected climate change all affect ecosystem processes at large scales. Changes in vegetation cover and growth dynamics can impact the functioning of ecosystems, carbon fluxes, and climate. As a result, there is a need to assess and monitor vegetation structure and function comprehensively at regional to global scales. To provide a test of our present understanding of how ecosystems operate at large scales we can compare model predictions of CO2, O2, and methane exchange with the atmosphere against regional measurements of interannual variation in the atmospheric concentration of these gases. Recent advances in remote sensing of the Earth's surface are beginning to provide methods for estimating important ecosystem variables at large scales. Ecologists attempting to generalize across landscapes have made extensive use of models and remote sensing technology. The success of such ventures is dependent on merging insights and expertise from two distinct fields. Ecologists must provide the understanding of how well models emulate important biological variables and their interactions; experts in remote sensing must provide the biophysical interpretation of complex optical reflectance and radar backscatter data.

Wind-induced interannual variability of sea level slope, along-shelf flow, and surface salinity on the Northwest Atlantic shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yun; Ji, Rubao; Fratantoni, Paula S.; Chen, Changsheng; Hare, Jonathan A.; Davis, Cabell S.; Beardsley, Robert C.

2014-04-01

In this study, we examine the importance of regional wind forcing in modulating advective processes and hydrographic properties along the Northwest Atlantic shelf, with a focus on the Nova Scotian Shelf (NSS)-Gulf of Maine (GoM) region. Long-term observational data of alongshore wind stress, sea level slope, and along-shelf flow are analyzed to quantify the relationship between wind forcing and hydrodynamic responses on interannual time scales. Additionally, a simplified momentum balance model is used to examine the underlying mechanisms. Our results show significant correlation among the observed interannual variability of sea level slope, along-shelf flow, and alongshore wind stress in the NSS-GoM region. A mechanism is suggested to elucidate the role of wind in modulating the sea level slope and along-shelf flow: stronger southwesterly (northeastward) winds tend to weaken the prevailing southwestward flow over the shelf, building sea level in the upstream Newfoundland Shelf region, whereas weaker southwesterly winds allow stronger southwestward flow to develop, raising sea level in the GoM region. The wind-induced flow variability can influence the transport of low-salinity water from the Gulf of St. Lawrence to the GoM, explaining interannual variations in surface salinity distributions within the region. Hence, our results offer a viable mechanism, besides the freshening of remote upstream sources, to explain interannual patterns of freshening in the GoM.

Interannual variability of ring formations in the Gulf Stream region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, Y. N.

2016-02-01

An oceanic ring in the Gulf Stream (GS) region plays important roles in across-jet transport of heat, salt, momentum, and nutrients. This study examines interannual variability of rings shed from the GS jet and their properties using satellite altimeter observations from 1993 to 2013. An objective method is used to capture a ring shedding from the GS jet and track its movement. A spatial distribution of the ring formations in the GS region showed that both cyclonic (cold-core) and anticyclonic (warm-core) rings were most frequently formed around the New England Seamount chain between 62°-65°W, suggesting the importance of the bottom topography on the pinch-off process. These rings moved westward, although about two-third of these rings was reabsorbed by the GS jet. The number of ring formations, especially cyclonic ring formations, indicated prominent fluctuations on interannual to decadal timescales. The annual maximum number of the pinched-off rings is four times larger than the annual minimum number of the rings. These fluctuations of the ring formations were negatively correlated with the strength of the GS. This situation is similar that in the Kuroshio Extension region. The interannual variability of the number of ring formations is also negatively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index with one-year lag (NAO leads). Interannual variations of the propagation tendency and shape of rings are also discussed.

Trace gas variability within the Asian monsoon anticyclone on intraseasonal and interannual timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nützel, Matthias; Dameris, Martin; Fierli, Federico; Stiller, Gabriele; Garny, Hella; Jöckel, Patrick

2016-04-01

The Asian monsoon and the associated monsoon anticyclone have the potential of substantially influencing the composition of the UTLS (upper troposphere/lower stratosphere) and hence global climate. Here we study the variability of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone in the UTLS on intraseasonal and interannual timescales using results from long term simulations performed with the CCM EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). In particular, we focus on specified dynamics simulations (Newtonian relaxation to ERA-Interim data) covering the period 1980-2013, which have been performed within the ESCiMo (Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling) project (Jöckel et al., GMDD, 2015). Our main focus lies on variability of the anticyclone's strength (in terms of potential vorticity, geopotential and circulation) and variability in trace gas signatures (O3, H2O) within the anticyclone. To support our findings, we also include observations from satellites (MIPAS, MLS). Our work is linked to the EU StratoClim campaign in 2016.

Can GRACE Explain Some of the Main Interannual Polar Motion Signatures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E. Y.

2016-12-01

GRACE has provided a series of monthly solutions for water mass transport that now span a 14-year period. A natural question to ask is how much of this mass transport information might be used to reconstruct, theoretically, the non-tidal and non-Chandlerian polar motion at interannual time scales. Reconstruction of the pole position at interannual time scales since 2002 has been performed by Chen et al. (2013, GRL) and Adhikari and Ivins (2016, Science Advances). (The main feature of polar motion that has been evolving since the mid 1990's is the increasing dominance of Greenland ice mass loss.) Here we discuss this reconstruction and the level of error that occurs because of missing information about the spherical harmonic degree 1 and 2 terms and the lack of terms associated with angular momentum transfer in the Louiville equations. Using GRACE observations and complementary solutions of self-attraction/loading problem on an elastically compressible rotating earth, we show that ice mass losses from polar ice sheets, and when combined with changes in continental hydrology, explain nearly the entire amplitude (83±23%) and mean directional shift (within 5.9±7.6°) of recently observed eastward polar motion. We also show that decadal scale pole variations are directly linked to global changes in continental hydrology. The energy sources for such motions are likely to be associated with decadal scale ocean and atmospheric oscillations that also drive 20th century continental wet-dry variability. Interannual variability in pole position, therefore, offers a tool for assessing past stability of our climate, and for the future, now faced with an increased intensity in the water cycle and more vulnerable to ice sheet instability. Figure caption: Observed and reconstructed mean annual pole positions with respect to the 2003-2015 mean position. Blue error band is associated with the reconstructed solution; red signifies additional errors that are related to uncertainty in the long-term linear trend. Notice the interannual variability during the GRACE period.

Elevated CO2 and warming effects on grassland plant mortality are determined by the timing of rainfall.

PubMed

Hovenden, Mark J; Newton, Paul C D; Porter, Meagan

2017-05-01

Global warming is expected to increase the mortality rate of established plants in water-limited systems because of its effect on evapotranspiration. The rising CO 2 concentration ([CO 2 ]), however, should have the opposite effect because it reduces plant transpiration, delaying the onset of drought. This potential for elevated [CO 2 ] (eCO 2 ) to modify the warming effect on mortality should be related to prevailing moisture conditions. This study aimed to determine the impacts of warming by 2 °C and eCO 2 (550 μmol mol -1 ) on plant mortality in an Australian temperate grassland over a 6-year period and to test how interannual variation in rainfall influenced treatment effects. Analyses were based on results from a field experiment, TasFACE, in which grassland plots were exposed to a combination of eCO 2 by free air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) and warming by infrared heaters. Using an annual census of established plants and detailed estimates of recruitment, annual mortality of all established plants was calculated. The influence of rainfall amount and timing on the relative impact of treatments on mortality in each year was analysed using multiple regression techniques. Warming and eCO 2 effects had an interactive influence on mortality which varied strongly from year to year and this variation was determined by temporal rainfall patterns. Warming tended to increase density-adjusted mortality and eCO 2 moderated that effect, but to a greater extent in years with fewer dry periods. These results show that eCO 2 reduced the negative effect of warming but this influence varied strongly with rainfall timing. Importantly, indices involving the amount of rainfall were not required to explain interannual variation in mortality or treatment effects on mortality. Therefore, predictions of global warming effects on plant mortality will be reliant not only on other climate change factors, but also on the temporal distribution of rainfall. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Elevated CO2 and warming effects on grassland plant mortality are determined by the timing of rainfall

PubMed Central

Newton, Paul C. D.; Porter, Meagan

2017-01-01

Abstract Background and aims Global warming is expected to increase the mortality rate of established plants in water-limited systems because of its effect on evapotranspiration. The rising CO2 concentration ([CO2]), however, should have the opposite effect because it reduces plant transpiration, delaying the onset of drought. This potential for elevated [CO2] (eCO2) to modify the warming effect on mortality should be related to prevailing moisture conditions. This study aimed to determine the impacts of warming by 2 °C and eCO2 (550 μmol mol−1) on plant mortality in an Australian temperate grassland over a 6-year period and to test how interannual variation in rainfall influenced treatment effects. Methods Analyses were based on results from a field experiment, TasFACE, in which grassland plots were exposed to a combination of eCO2 by free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) and warming by infrared heaters. Using an annual census of established plants and detailed estimates of recruitment, annual mortality of all established plants was calculated. The influence of rainfall amount and timing on the relative impact of treatments on mortality in each year was analysed using multiple regression techniques. Key Results Warming and eCO2 effects had an interactive influence on mortality which varied strongly from year to year and this variation was determined by temporal rainfall patterns. Warming tended to increase density-adjusted mortality and eCO2 moderated that effect, but to a greater extent in years with fewer dry periods. Conclusions These results show that eCO2 reduced the negative effect of warming but this influence varied strongly with rainfall timing. Importantly, indices involving the amount of rainfall were not required to explain interannual variation in mortality or treatment effects on mortality. Therefore, predictions of global warming effects on plant mortality will be reliant not only on other climate change factors, but also on the temporal distribution of rainfall. PMID:28334161

Long-Term Simulation of Dust Distribution with the GOCART Model: Correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ginoux, P.; Prospero, J.; Torres, O.; Chin, M.

2002-01-01

Global distribution of aeolian dust is simulated from 1981 to 1996 with the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. The results are assessed with in-situ measurements and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol products. The annual budget over the different continents and oceans are analyzed. It is found that there is a maximum of 25% difference of global annual emission from the minimum in 1996 to the maximum in 1988. There is a downward trend of dust emission over Africa and East Asia, of 6 and 2 Tg/yr, respectively. The inter-annual variability of dust distribution is analyzed over the North Atlantic and Africa. It is found that in winter most of the North Atlantic and Africa dust loading is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The GOCART model indicates that a controlling factor of such correlation can be attributed to dust emission from the Sahel. The Bodele depression is the major dust source in winter and its inter-annual variability is highly correlated with the NAO. However, it is not possible to conclude without further analysis that the North Atlantic Oscillation is forcing the inter-annual variability of dust emission and in-turn dust concentration over the North Atlantic.

Trends and natural variability of North American spring onset as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ault, Toby R.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Zurita-Milla, Raul; Weltzin, Jake F.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous United States. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and the results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from 20.8 to 21.6 days decade21, while first bloom index trends are between20.4 and 21.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal time scales. Finally, there is some potential for successful subseasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

Trends and Natural Variability of Spring Onset in the Coterminous United States as Evaluated by a New Gridded Dataset of Spring Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ault, T.; Schwartz, M. D.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Weltzin, J. F.; Betancourt, J. L.

2015-12-01

Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous US. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from -0.8 to -1.6 days per decade, while first bloom index trends are between -0.4 and -1.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal timescales. Finally, there is some potential for successful sub-seasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

Modeled Changes in Potential Grassland Productivity and in Grass-Fed Ruminant Livestock Density in Europe over 1961-2010.

PubMed

Chang, Jinfeng; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Ciais, Philippe; Campioli, Matteo; Klumpp, Katja; Martin, Raphaël; Leip, Adrian; Soussana, Jean-François

2015-01-01

About 25% of European livestock intake is based on permanent and sown grasslands. To fulfill rising demand for animal products, an intensification of livestock production may lead to an increased consumption of crop and compound feeds. In order to preserve an economically and environmentally sustainable agriculture, a more forage based livestock alimentation may be an advantage. However, besides management, grassland productivity is highly vulnerable to climate (i.e., temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentration), and spatial information about European grassland productivity in response to climate change is scarce. The process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE-GM, containing an explicit representation of grassland management (i.e., herbage mowing and grazing), is used here to estimate changes in potential productivity and potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density across European grasslands over the period 1961-2010. Here "potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density" denotes the maximum density of livestock that can be supported by grassland productivity in each 25 km × 25 km grid cell. In reality, livestock density could be higher than potential (e.g., if additional feed is supplied to animals) or lower (e.g., in response to economic factors, pedo-climatic and biotic conditions ignored by the model, or policy decisions that can for instance reduce livestock numbers). When compared to agricultural statistics (Eurostat and FAOstat), ORCHIDEE-GM gave a good reproduction of the regional gradients of annual grassland productivity and ruminant livestock density. The model however tends to systematically overestimate the absolute values of productivity in most regions, suggesting that most grid cells remain below their potential grassland productivity due to possible nutrient and biotic limitations on plant growth. When ORCHIDEE-GM was run for the period 1961-2010 with variable climate and rising CO2, an increase of potential annual production (over 3%) per decade was found: 97% of this increase was attributed to the rise in CO2, -3% to climate trends and 15% to trends in nitrogen fertilization and deposition. When compared with statistical data, ORCHIDEE-GM captures well the observed phase of climate-driven interannual variability in grassland production well, whereas the magnitude of the interannual variability in modeled productivity is larger than the statistical data. Regional grass-fed livestock numbers can be reproduced by ORCHIDEE-GM based on its simple assumptions and parameterization about productivity being the only limiting factor to define the sustainable number of animals per unit area. Causes for regional model-data misfits are discussed, including uncertainties in farming practices (e.g., nitrogen fertilizer application, and mowing and grazing intensity) and in ruminant diet composition, as well as uncertainties in the statistical data and in model parameter values.

Modeled Changes in Potential Grassland Productivity and in Grass-Fed Ruminant Livestock Density in Europe over 1961–2010

PubMed Central

Chang, Jinfeng; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Ciais, Philippe; Campioli, Matteo; Klumpp, Katja; Martin, Raphaël; Leip, Adrian; Soussana, Jean-François

2015-01-01

About 25% of European livestock intake is based on permanent and sown grasslands. To fulfill rising demand for animal products, an intensification of livestock production may lead to an increased consumption of crop and compound feeds. In order to preserve an economically and environmentally sustainable agriculture, a more forage based livestock alimentation may be an advantage. However, besides management, grassland productivity is highly vulnerable to climate (i.e., temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentration), and spatial information about European grassland productivity in response to climate change is scarce. The process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE-GM, containing an explicit representation of grassland management (i.e., herbage mowing and grazing), is used here to estimate changes in potential productivity and potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density across European grasslands over the period 1961–2010. Here “potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density” denotes the maximum density of livestock that can be supported by grassland productivity in each 25 km × 25 km grid cell. In reality, livestock density could be higher than potential (e.g., if additional feed is supplied to animals) or lower (e.g., in response to economic factors, pedo-climatic and biotic conditions ignored by the model, or policy decisions that can for instance reduce livestock numbers). When compared to agricultural statistics (Eurostat and FAOstat), ORCHIDEE-GM gave a good reproduction of the regional gradients of annual grassland productivity and ruminant livestock density. The model however tends to systematically overestimate the absolute values of productivity in most regions, suggesting that most grid cells remain below their potential grassland productivity due to possible nutrient and biotic limitations on plant growth. When ORCHIDEE-GM was run for the period 1961–2010 with variable climate and rising CO2, an increase of potential annual production (over 3%) per decade was found: 97% of this increase was attributed to the rise in CO2, -3% to climate trends and 15% to trends in nitrogen fertilization and deposition. When compared with statistical data, ORCHIDEE-GM captures well the observed phase of climate-driven interannual variability in grassland production well, whereas the magnitude of the interannual variability in modeled productivity is larger than the statistical data. Regional grass-fed livestock numbers can be reproduced by ORCHIDEE-GM based on its simple assumptions and parameterization about productivity being the only limiting factor to define the sustainable number of animals per unit area. Causes for regional model-data misfits are discussed, including uncertainties in farming practices (e.g., nitrogen fertilizer application, and mowing and grazing intensity) and in ruminant diet composition, as well as uncertainties in the statistical data and in model parameter values. PMID:26018186

The cultivation of energy crops for biogas production and the application of digestates are characterized by high variability of CO2 exchange and soil organic C stock changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Augustin, Juergen; Fiedler, Sebastian; Heintze, Gawan; Rohwer, Marcus; Prescher, Anne-Katrin; Pohl, Madlen; Jurisch, Nicole; Hagemann, Ulrike

2017-04-01

In Germany, agricultural production accounts for approx. 15% of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The cultivation of energy crops is thus considered an important option to reduce the climate impact and maintain or increase soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. In particular, this applies to the continuously expanding cultivation of energy crops for biogas production and the associated use of residues from anaerobic digestion (digestates) as organic fertilizer. To date, there is only limited and contradicting evidence on the impacts of this management practice on the CO2 exchange as well as the change of SOC stocks. We will present results from a 4-year field study at 5 sites in Germany using identical methods to investigate the interacting effects of i) 3 N-fertilizer treatments including calcium ammonium nitrate and digestates and ii) a crop rotation of 7 energy crops like maize, sorghum, triticale, and wheat on net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and the change of SOC stocks. We used the manual chamber approach for measuring NEE as the difference between gross primary production and ecosystem respiration. The determination of SOC stock changes was based on a C budget approach, which includes the cumulated annual NEE, the C export by harvest, and the C import by application of anaerobic digestates. The CO2 exchange and the change of SOC stocks were influenced by multiple factors like crop, site, fertilization, and climate, as well as their complex interactions. A large proportion of the variability of the CO2 exchange can be attributed to interannual climatic variability. Productive crops like maize and sorghum generally feature the most intensive CO2 exchange, while less productive crops can compensate for this by means of longer cultivation times. Regardless of the extreme variability, pronounced and partly significant differences of NEE and C budgets between sites were observed. On average, SOC stocks declined over a full crop rotation, but with highly variable positive and negative C budgets. This indicates that, in most cases, neither the selected crops nor the application of anaerobic digestates were sufficient to compensate for SOC losses. Apparently, the potential of anaerobic digestates to maintain or increase SOC stocks is considerably smaller than expected. If continuous decreases of SOC stocks due to energy crop cultivation are to be avoided, additional studies on the optimization of crop rotations (selection of plants with high C input), and digestate fertilization (type of digestate, amount and application technique) are required. A continuously improved version of the methodology used in this study promises faster and more precise results than classic long-term field trials.

Observations of changes in the dissolved CO2 system in the North Sea, in four summers of the 2001-2011 decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clargo, Nicola; Salt, Lesley; Thomas, Helmuth; de Baar, Hein

2015-04-01

Since the industrial revolution, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) have risen dramatically, largely due to the combustion of fossil fuels, changes in land-use patterns and the production of cement. The oceans have absorbed a large amount of this CO2, with resulting impacts on ocean chemistry. Coastal seas play a significant role in the mitigation of anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 as they contribute approximately 10-30% of global primary productivity despite accounting for only 7% of the surface area. The North Sea is a perfect natural laboratory in which to study the CO2 system as it consists of two biogeochemically distinct regions displaying both oceanic and relatively coastal behaviour. It has also been identified as a continental shelf pump with respect to CO2, transporting it to the deeper waters of the North Atlantic. Large scale forcing has been shown to have a significant impact on the CO2 system over varying time scales, often masking the effects of anthropogenic influence. Here, we present data from the North Sea spanning the 2001-2011 decade. In order to investigate the dynamics of the dissolved CO2 system in this region in the face of climate change, four basin-wide cruises were conducted during the summers of 2001, 2005, 2008 and 2011. The acquired Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) and alkalinity data were then used to fully resolve the carbon system in order to assess trends over the 2001-2011 decade. We find significant interannual variability, but with a consistent, notable trend in decreasing pH. We found that surface alkalinity remained relatively constant over the decade, whereas DIC increased, indicating that the pH decline is DIC-driven. We also found that the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) increased faster than concurrent atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and that the CO2 buffering capacity of the North Sea decreased over the decade, with implications for future CO2 uptake.

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on African savannas changes with mean rainfall.

PubMed

Synodinos, Alexis D; Tietjen, Britta; Lohmann, Dirk; Jeltsch, Florian

2018-01-21

Savannas are mixed tree-grass ecosystems whose dynamics are predominantly regulated by resource competition and the temporal variability in climatic and environmental factors such as rainfall and fire. Hence, increasing inter-annual rainfall variability due to climate change could have a significant impact on savannas. To investigate this, we used an ecohydrological model of stochastic differential equations and simulated African savanna dynamics along a gradient of mean annual rainfall (520-780 mm/year) for a range of inter-annual rainfall variabilities. Our simulations produced alternative states of grassland and savanna across the mean rainfall gradient. Increasing inter-annual variability had a negative effect on the savanna state under dry conditions (520 mm/year), and a positive effect under moister conditions (580-780 mm/year). The former resulted from the net negative effect of dry and wet extremes on trees. In semi-arid conditions (520 mm/year), dry extremes caused a loss of tree cover, which could not be recovered during wet extremes because of strong resource competition and the increased frequency of fires. At high mean rainfall (780 mm/year), increased variability enhanced savanna resilience. Here, resources were no longer limiting and the slow tree dynamics buffered against variability by maintaining a stable population during 'dry' extremes, providing the basis for growth during wet extremes. Simultaneously, high rainfall years had a weak marginal benefit on grass cover due to density-regulation and grazing. Our results suggest that the effects of the slow tree and fast grass dynamics on tree-grass interactions will become a major determinant of the savanna vegetation composition with increasing rainfall variability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interannual variability in tropical tropospheric ozone and OH: The role of lightning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, Lee T.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Jacob, Daniel J.

2013-10-01

Nitrogen oxide radicals (NOx) produced by lightning are natural precursors for the production of the dominant tropospheric oxidants, OH and ozone. Observations of the interannual variability (IAV) of tropical ozone and of global mean OH (from the methyl chloroform proxy) offer a window for understanding the sensitivity of ozone and OH to environmental factors. We present the results of simulations for 1998-2006 using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM) with IAV in tropical lightning constrained by satellite observations from the Lightning Imaging Sensor. We find that this imposed IAV in lightning NOx improves the ability of the model to reproduce observed IAV in tropical ozone and OH. Lightning is far more important than biomass burning in driving the IAV of tropical ozone, even though the IAV of NOx emissions from fires is greater than that from lightning. Our results indicate that the IAV in tropospheric OH is highly sensitive to lightning relative to other emissions and suggest that lightning contributes an important fraction of the observed IAV in OH inferred from the methyl chloroform proxy. Lightning affects OH through the HO2+ NO reaction, an effect compounded by positive feedback from the resulting increase in ozone production and in CO loss. We can account in the model for the observed increase in OH in 1998-2004 and for its IAV, but the model fails to explain the OH decrease in 2004-2006. We find that stratospheric ozone plays little role in driving IAV in OH during 1998-2006, in contrast to previous studies that examined earlier periods.

Designing low-carbon power systems for Great Britain in 2050 that are robust to the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeyringer, Marianne; Price, James; Fais, Birgit; Li, Pei-Hao; Sharp, Ed

2018-05-01

The design of cost-effective power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies requires a modelling approach that simultaneously represents the whole energy system combined with the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of VRE. Here, we soft-link a long-term energy system model, which explores new energy system configurations from years to decades, with a high spatial and temporal resolution power system model that captures VRE variability from hours to years. Applying this methodology to Great Britain for 2050, we find that VRE-focused power system design is highly sensitive to the inter-annual variability of weather and that planning based on a single year can lead to operational inadequacy and failure to meet long-term decarbonization objectives. However, some insights do emerge that are relatively stable to weather-year. Reinforcement of the transmission system consistently leads to a decrease in system costs while electricity storage and flexible generation, needed to integrate VRE into the system, are generally deployed close to demand centres.

An Inversion Analysis of Recent Variability in Natural CO2 Fluxes Using GOSAT and In Situ Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J. S.; Kawa, S. R.; Baker, D. F.; Collatz, G. J.; Ott, L. E.

2015-12-01

About one-half of the global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation accumulates in the atmosphere, where it contributes to global warming. The rest is taken up by vegetation and the ocean. The precise contribution of the two sinks, and their location and year-to-year variability are, however, not well understood. We use two different approaches, batch Bayesian synthesis inversion and variational data assimilation, to deduce the global spatiotemporal distributions of CO2 fluxes during 2009-2010. One of our objectives is to assess different sources of uncertainties in inferred fluxes, including uncertainties in prior flux estimates and observations, and differences in inversion techniques. For prior constraints, we utilize fluxes and uncertainties from the CASA-GFED model of the terrestrial biosphere and biomass burning driven by satellite observations and interannually varying meteorology. We also use measurement-based ocean flux estimates and two sets of fixed fossil CO2 emissions. Here, our inversions incorporate column CO2 measurements from the GOSAT satellite (ACOS retrieval, filtered and bias-corrected) and in situ observations (individual flask and afternoon-average continuous observations) to estimate fluxes in 108 regions over 8-day intervals for the batch inversion and at 3° x 3.75° weekly for the variational system. Relationships between fluxes and atmospheric concentrations are derived consistently for the two inversion systems using the PCTM atmospheric transport model driven by meteorology from the MERRA reanalysis. We compare the posterior fluxes and uncertainties derived using different data sets and the two inversion approaches, and evaluate the posterior atmospheric concentrations against independent data including aircraft measurements. The optimized fluxes generally resemble those from other studies. For example, the results indicate that the terrestrial biosphere is a net CO2 sink, and a GOSAT-only inversion suggests a shift in the global sink from the tropics/south to the north relative to the prior and to an in-situ-only inversion. We also find a smaller terrestrial sink in higher-latitude northern regions in boreal summer of 2010 relative to 2009.

An Inversion Analysis of Recent Variability in Natural CO2 Fluxes Using GOSAT and In Situ Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, James S.; Kawa, S. Randolph; Collatz, G. James; Baker, David F.; Ott, Lesley

2015-01-01

About one-half of the global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation accumulates in the atmosphere, where it contributes to global warming. The rest is taken up by vegetation and the ocean. The precise contribution of the two sinks, and their location and year-to-year variability are, however, not well understood. We use two different approaches, batch Bayesian synthesis inversion and variational data assimilation, to deduce the global spatiotemporal distributions of CO2 fluxes during 2009-2010. One of our objectives is to assess different sources of uncertainties in inferred fluxes, including uncertainties in prior flux estimates and observations, and differences in inversion techniques. For prior constraints, we utilize fluxes and uncertainties from the CASA-GFED model of the terrestrial biosphere and biomass burning driven by satellite observations and interannually varying meteorology. We also use measurement-based ocean flux estimates and two sets of fixed fossil CO2 emissions. Here, our inversions incorporate column CO2 measurements from the GOSAT satellite (ACOS retrieval, filtered and bias-corrected) and in situ observations (individual flask and afternoon-average continuous observations) to estimate fluxes in 108 regions over 8-day intervals for the batch inversion and at 3 x 3.75 weekly for the variational system. Relationships between fluxes and atmospheric concentrations are derived consistently for the two inversion systems using the PCTM atmospheric transport model driven by meteorology from the MERRA reanalysis. We compare the posterior fluxes and uncertainties derived using different data sets and the two inversion approaches, and evaluate the posterior atmospheric concentrations against independent data including aircraft measurements. The optimized fluxes generally resemble those from other studies. For example, the results indicate that the terrestrial biosphere is a net CO2 sink, and a GOSAT-only inversion suggests a shift in the global sink from the tropics south to the north relative to the prior and to an in-situ-only inversion. We also find a smaller terrestrial sink in higher-latitude northern regions in boreal summer of 2010 relative to 2009.

Tropical Warm Pool Surface Heat Budgets and Temperature: Contrasts Between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shu-Hsien; Chou, Ming-Dah; Chan, Pui-King; Lin, Po-Hsiung; Wang, Kung-Hwa

2003-01-01

Seasonal and interannual variations of the net surface heating F(sub NET) and sea surface temperature tendency (T(sub s)/dt) in the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans are studied. The surface heat fluxes are derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite radiance measurements for the period October 1997-September 2000. It is found that the magnitude of solar heating is lager than that of evaporative cooling, but the spatial variation of the latter is significantly large than the former. As a result, the spatial variations of seasonal and interannual variability of F(sub NET), follow closely that of evaporative cooling. Seasonal variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt are significantly correlated, except for the equatorial western Pacific. The high correlation is primarily attributable to high correlation between seasonal cycles of solar heating and T(sub s)/dt. The change of F(sub NET) between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina is significantly larger in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean than tropical western Pacific. For the former region, the reduced evaporative cooling arising from weakened winds during the El Nino is generally associated with enhanced solar heating due to decreased cloudiness, and thus increases the interannual variability of F(sub NET). For the latter region, the reduced evaporative cooling due to weakened winds is generally associated with but exceeds the reduced solar heating arising from increased cloudiness, and vise versa. Thus the interannual variability of F(sub NET) is reduced due to this offsetting effect. Interannual variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt have very low correlation. This is most likely related to interannual variability of ocean dynamics, which includes the variations of solar radiation penetrating through oceanic mixed layer, upwelling of cold thermocline water, Indonesian throughflow for transporting heat from the Pacific to Indian Ocean, and interhemispheric transport in the Indian Ocean.

Inter-annual Variability in Global Suspended Particulate Inorganic Carbon Inventory Using Space-based Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, J.; Balch, W. M.; Henson, S.; Poulton, A. J.; Drapeau, D.; Bowler, B.; Lubelczyk, L.

2016-02-01

Coccolithophores, the single celled phytoplankton that produce an outer covering of calcium carbonate coccoliths, are considered to be the greatest contributors to the global oceanic particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) pool. The reflective coccoliths scatter light back out from the ocean surface, enabling PIC concentration to be quantitatively estimated from ocean color satellites. Here we use datasets of AQUA MODIS PIC concentration from 2003-2014 (using the recently-revised PIC algorithm), as well as statistics on coccolithophore vertical distribution derived from cruises throughout the world ocean, to estimate the average global (surface and integrated) PIC standing stock and its associated inter-annual variability. In addition, we divide the global ocean into Longhurst biogeochemical provinces, update the PIC biomass statistics and identify those regions that have the greatest inter-annual variability and thus may exert the greatest influence on global PIC standing stock and the alkalinity pump.

Parametric Sensitivity Analysis for the Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Simulation in the Beijing Climate Center AGCM Version 2.1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Ben; Zhang, Yaocun; Qian, Yun

In this study, we apply an efficient sampling approach and conduct a large number of simulations to explore the sensitivity of the simulated Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation, including the climatological state and interannual variability, to eight parameters related to the cloud and precipitation processes in the Beijing Climate Center AGCM version 2.1 (BCC_AGCM2.1). Our results show that BCC_AGCM2.1 has large biases in simulating the ASM precipitation. The precipitation efficiency and evaporation coefficient for deep convection are the most sensitive parameters in simulating the ASM precipitation. With optimal parameter values, the simulated precipitation climatology could be remarkably improved, e.g. increasedmore » precipitation over the equator Indian Ocean, suppressed precipitation over the Philippine Sea, and more realistic Meiyu distribution over Eastern China. The ASM precipitation interannual variability is further analyzed, with a focus on the ENSO impacts. It shows the simulations with better ASM precipitation climatology can also produce more realistic precipitation anomalies during El Niño decaying summer. In the low-skill experiments for precipitation climatology, the ENSO-induced precipitation anomalies are most significant over continents (vs. over ocean in observation) in the South Asian monsoon region. More realistic results are derived from the higher-skill experiments with stronger anomalies over the Indian Ocean and weaker anomalies over India and the western Pacific, favoring more evident easterly anomalies forced by the tropical Indian Ocean warming and stronger Indian Ocean-western Pacific tele-connection as observed. Our model results reveal a strong connection between the simulated ASM precipitation climatological state and interannual variability in BCC_AGCM2.1 when key parameters are perturbed.« less

A Functional Response Metric for the Temperature Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Basile, Samantha J.; Hoffman, Forrest M.

Earth system models (ESMs) simulate a large spread in carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, particularly in their prediction of cumulative changes in terrestrial carbon storage. Evaluating the performance of ESMs against observations and assessing the likelihood of long-term climate predictions are crucial for model development. Here, we assessed the use of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate variations to evaluate the sensitivity of tropical ecosystem carbon fluxes to interannual temperature variations. We found that the temperature sensitivity of the observed CO 2 growth rate depended on the time scales over which atmospheric CO 2 observations were averaged. The temperature sensitivitymore » of the CO 2 growth rate during Northern Hemisphere winter is most directly related to the tropical carbon flux sensitivity since winter variations in Northern Hemisphere carbon fluxes are relatively small. This metric can be used to test the fidelity of interactions between the physical climate system and terrestrial ecosystems within ESMs, which is especially important since the short-term relationship between ecosystem fluxes and temperature stress may be related to the long-term feedbacks between ecosystems and climate. If the interannual temperature sensitivity is used to constrain long-term temperature responses, the inferred sensitivity may be biased by 20%, unless the seasonality of the relationship between the observed CO 2 growth rate and tropical fluxes is taken into account. Lastly, these results suggest that atmospheric data can be used directly to evaluate regional land fluxes from ESMs, but underscore that the interaction between the time scales for land surface processes and those for atmospheric processes must be considered.« less

A Functional Response Metric for the Temperature Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems

DOE PAGES

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Basile, Samantha J.; Hoffman, Forrest M.

2018-04-23

Earth system models (ESMs) simulate a large spread in carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, particularly in their prediction of cumulative changes in terrestrial carbon storage. Evaluating the performance of ESMs against observations and assessing the likelihood of long-term climate predictions are crucial for model development. Here, we assessed the use of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate variations to evaluate the sensitivity of tropical ecosystem carbon fluxes to interannual temperature variations. We found that the temperature sensitivity of the observed CO 2 growth rate depended on the time scales over which atmospheric CO 2 observations were averaged. The temperature sensitivitymore » of the CO 2 growth rate during Northern Hemisphere winter is most directly related to the tropical carbon flux sensitivity since winter variations in Northern Hemisphere carbon fluxes are relatively small. This metric can be used to test the fidelity of interactions between the physical climate system and terrestrial ecosystems within ESMs, which is especially important since the short-term relationship between ecosystem fluxes and temperature stress may be related to the long-term feedbacks between ecosystems and climate. If the interannual temperature sensitivity is used to constrain long-term temperature responses, the inferred sensitivity may be biased by 20%, unless the seasonality of the relationship between the observed CO 2 growth rate and tropical fluxes is taken into account. Lastly, these results suggest that atmospheric data can be used directly to evaluate regional land fluxes from ESMs, but underscore that the interaction between the time scales for land surface processes and those for atmospheric processes must be considered.« less

Interannual hydroclimatic variability and the 2009-2011 extreme ENSO phases in Colombia: from Andean glaciers to Caribbean lowlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedoya-Soto, Juan Mauricio; Poveda, Germán; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Vélez-Upegui, Jorge Julián

2018-03-01

During 2009-2011, Colombia experienced extreme hydroclimatic events associated with the extreme phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, we study the dynamics of diverse land-atmosphere phenomena involved in such anomalous events at continental, regional, and local scales. Standardized anomalies of precipitation, 2-m temperature, total column water (TCW), volumetric soil water (VSW), temperature at 925 hPa, surface sensible heat (SSH), latent heat (SLH), evaporation (EVP), and liquid water equivalent thickness (LWET) are analyzed to assess atmosphere-land controls and relationships over tropical South America (TropSA) during 1986-2013 (long term) and 2009-2011 (ENSO extreme phases). An assessment of the interannual covariability between precipitation and 2-m temperature is performed using singular value decomposition (SVD) to identify the dominant spatiotemporal modes of hydroclimatic variability over the region's largest river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Tocantins, Magdalena-Cauca, and Essequibo). ENSO, its evolution in time, and strong and consistent spatial structures emerge as the dominant mode of variability. In situ anomalies during both extreme phases of ENSO 2009-2011 over the Magdalena-Cauca River basins are linked at the continental scale. The ENSO-driven hydroclimatic effects extend from the diurnal cycle to interannual timescales, as reflected in temperature data from tropical glaciers and the rain-snow boundary in the highest peaks of the Central Andes of Colombia to river levels along the Caribbean lowlands of the Magdalena-Cauca River basin.

A high-resolution speleothem record of western equatorial Pacific rainfall: Implications for Holocene ENSO evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Sang; Hoffmann, Sharon S.; Lund, David C.; Cobb, Kim M.; Emile-Geay, Julien; Adkins, Jess F.

2016-05-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of interannual climate variability in the tropics and subtropics. Despite substantial progress in understanding ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that drive ENSO today, relatively little is known about its behavior on centennial and longer timescales. Paleoclimate records from lakes, corals, molluscs and deep-sea sediments generally suggest that ENSO variability was weaker during the mid-Holocene (4-6 kyr BP) than the late Holocene (0-4 kyr BP). However, discrepancies amongst the records preclude a clear timeline of Holocene ENSO evolution and therefore the attribution of ENSO variability to specific climate forcing mechanisms. Here we present δ18 O results from a U-Th dated speleothem in Malaysian Borneo sampled at sub-annual resolution. The δ18 O of Borneo rainfall is a robust proxy of regional convective intensity and precipitation amount, both of which are directly influenced by ENSO activity. Our estimates of stalagmite δ18 O variance at ENSO periods (2-7 yr) show a significant reduction in interannual variability during the mid-Holocene (3240-3380 and 5160-5230 yr BP) relative to both the late Holocene (2390-2590 yr BP) and early Holocene (6590-6730 yr BP). The Borneo results are therefore inconsistent with lacustrine records of ENSO from the eastern equatorial Pacific that show little or no ENSO variance during the early Holocene. Instead, our results support coral, mollusc and foraminiferal records from the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that show a mid-Holocene minimum in ENSO variance. Reduced mid-Holocene interannual δ18 O variability in Borneo coincides with an overall minimum in mean δ18 O from 3.5 to 5.5 kyr BP. Persistent warm pool convection would tend to enhance the Walker circulation during the mid-Holocene, which likely contributed to reduced ENSO variance during this period. This finding implies that both convective intensity and interannual variability in Borneo are driven by coupled air-sea dynamics that are sensitive to precessional insolation forcing. Isolating the exact mechanisms that drive long-term ENSO evolution will require additional high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstructions and further investigation of Holocene tropical climate evolution using coupled climate models.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of ocean conditions and forage taxa reveal regional structuring of seabird–prey relationships.

PubMed

Santora, Jarrod A; Schroeder, Isaac D; Field, John C; Wells, Brian K; Sydeman, William J

Studies of predator–prey demographic responses and the physical drivers of such relationships are rare, yet essential for predicting future changes in the structure and dynamics of marine ecosystems. Here, we hypothesize that predator–prey relationships vary spatially in association with underlying physical ocean conditions, leading to observable changes in demographic rates, such as reproduction. To test this hypothesis, we quantified spatio-temporal variability in hydrographic conditions, krill, and forage fish to model predator (seabird) demographic responses over 18 years (1990–2007). We used principal component analysis and spatial correlation maps to assess coherence among ocean conditions, krill, and forage fish, and generalized additive models to quantify interannual variability in seabird breeding success relative to prey abundance. The first principal component of four hydrographic measurements yielded an index that partitioned “warm/weak upwelling” and “cool/strong upwelling” years. Partitioning of krill and forage fish time series among shelf and oceanic regions yielded spatially explicit indicators of prey availability. Krill abundance within the oceanic region was remarkably consistent between years, whereas krill over the shelf showed marked interannual fluctuations in relation to ocean conditions. Anchovy abundance varied on the shelf, and was greater in years of strong stratification, weak upwelling and warmer temperatures. Spatio-temporal variability of juvenile forage fish co-varied strongly with each other and with krill, but was weakly correlated with hydrographic conditions. Demographic responses between seabirds and prey availability revealed spatially variable associations indicative of the dynamic nature of “predator–habitat” relationships. Quantification of spatially explicit demographic responses, and their variability through time, demonstrate the possibility of delineating specific critical areas where the implementation of protective measures could maintain functions and productivity of central place foraging predators.

Influence of climate variability, fire and phosphorus limitation on vegetation structure and dynamics of the Amazon-Cerrado border

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ane Dionizio, Emily; Heil Costa, Marcos; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Ferreira Pires, Gabrielle; Schwantes Marimon, Beatriz; Hur Marimon-Junior, Ben; Lenza, Eddie; Martins Pimenta, Fernando; Yang, Xiaojuan; Jain, Atul K.

2018-02-01

Climate, fire and soil nutrient limitation are important elements that affect vegetation dynamics in areas of the forest-savanna transition. In this paper, we use the dynamic vegetation model INLAND to evaluate the influence of interannual climate variability, fire and phosphorus (P) limitation on Amazon-Cerrado transitional vegetation structure and dynamics. We assess how each environmental factor affects net primary production, leaf area index and aboveground biomass (AGB), and compare the AGB simulations to an observed AGB map. We used two climate data sets (monthly average climate for 1961-1990 and interannual climate variability for 1948-2008), two data sets of total soil P content (one based on regional field measurements and one based on global data), and the INLAND fire module. Our results show that the inclusion of interannual climate variability, P limitation and fire occurrence each contribute to simulating vegetation types that more closely match observations. These effects are spatially heterogeneous and synergistic. In terms of magnitude, the effect of fire is strongest and is the main driver of vegetation changes along the transition. Phosphorus limitation, in turn, has a stronger effect on transitional ecosystem dynamics than interannual climate variability does. Overall, INLAND typically simulates more than 80 % of the AGB variability in the transition zone. However, the AGB in many places is clearly not well simulated, indicating that important soil and physiological factors in the Amazon-Cerrado border region, such as lithology, water table depth, carbon allocation strategies and mortality rates, still need to be included in the model.

Interannual Variability of Fisheries Economic Returns and Energy Ratios Is Mostly Explained by Gear Type

PubMed Central

Trenkel, Verena M.; Daurès, Fabienne; Rochet, Marie-Joëlle; Lorance, Pascal

2013-01-01

According to portfolio theory applied to fisheries management, economic returns are stabilised by harvesting in a portfolio stocks of species whose returns are negatively correlated and for which the portfolio economic return variance is smaller than the sum of stock specific return variances. Also, variability is expected to decrease with portfolio width. Using a range of indicators, these predictions were tested for the French fishing fleets in the Bay of Biscay (Northeast Atlantic) during the period 2001–2009. For this, vessels were grouped into eight fishing fleets based on the gears used and exploited species were grouped into five functional groups. The portfolio width of fleets ranged from 1–3 functional groups, or 4–19 species. Economic fleet returns (sale revenues minus fishing costs) varied strongly between years; the interannual variability was independent of portfolio width (species or functional groups). Energy ratio expressed by the ratio between fuel energy used for fishing and energy contained in landings varied from 0.3 for purse seines to 9.7 for trawlers using bottom trawls alone or in combination with pelagic trawls independent of portfolio width. Interannual variability in total sale revenues was larger than the sum of species specific sales revenue variability, except for fleets using hooks and pelagic trawlers; it increased with the number of species exploited. In conclusion, the interannual variability of economic returns or energy ratios of French fisheries in the Bay of Biscay did not decrease with the number of species or functional groups exploited, though it varied between fleets. PMID:23922951

Climate variability controls on unsaturated water and chemical movement, High Plains aquifer, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gurdak, J.J.; Hanson, R.T.; McMahon, P.B.; Bruce, B.W.; McCray, J.E.; Thyne, G.D.; Reedy, R.C.

2007-01-01

Responses in the vadose zone and groundwater to interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal climate variability have important implications for groundwater resource sustainability, yet they are poorly documented and not well understood in most aquifers of the USA. This investigation systematically examines the role of interannual to multidecadal climate variability on groundwater levels, deep infiltration (3-23 m) events, and downward displacement (>1 m) of chloride and nitrate reservoirs in thick (15-50 m) vadose zones across the regionally extensive High Plains aquifer. Such vadose zone responses are unexpected across much of the aquifer given a priori that unsaturated total-potential profiles indicate upward water movement from the water table toward the root zone, mean annual potential evapotranspiration exceeds mean annual precipitation, and millennia-scale evapoconcentration results in substantial vadose zone chloride and nitrate reservoirs. Using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to reconstruct precipitation and groundwater level time-series components, variability was identified in all time series as partially coincident with known climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (10-25 yr) and the El Nin??o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-6 yr). Using these lag-correlated hydrologic time series, a new method is demonstrated to estimate climate-varying unsaturated water flux. The results suggest the importance of interannual to interdecadal climate variability on water-flux estimation in thick vadose zones and provide better understanding of the climate-induced transients responsible for the observed deep infiltration and chemical-mobilization events. Based on these results, we discuss implications for climate-related sustainability of the High Plains aquifer. ?? Soil Science Society of America.

Biological and climate controls on North Atlantic marine carbon dynamics over the last millennium: Insights from an absolutely-dated shell based record from the North Icelandic Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, I. R.; Reynolds, D.; Scourse, J. D.; Richardson, C.; Wanamaker, A. D.; Butler, P. G.

2017-12-01

Given the rapid increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (pCO2) over the industrial era there is a pressing need to construct longterm records of natural carbon cycling prior to this perturbation and to develop a more robust understanding of the role the oceans play in the sequestration of atmospheric carbon. Here we reconstruct the historical biological and climatic controls on the carbon isotopic (δ13C-shell) composition of the North Icelandic shelf waters over the last millennium derived from the shells of the long-lived marine bivalve mollusc Arctica islandica. Variability in the annually resolved δ13C-shell record is dominated by multi-decadal variability with a negative trend (-0.003±0.002‰yr-1) over the industrial era (1800-2000). This trend is consistent with the marine Suess effect brought about by the sequestration of isotopically light carbon (δ13C of CO2) derived from the burning of fossil fuels. Comparison of the δ13C-shell record with contemporary proxy archives, over the last millennium, and instrumental data over the 20th century, suggests that primary productivity and climate conditions over the sub-polar North Atlantic region played a vital role in driving inter-annual to multi-decadal scale variability in the δ13C-shell record. Our results highlight that relative shifts in the proportion of sub-polar mode waters and Arctic intermediate waters entrained onto the North Icelandic shelf, coupled with atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO), are the likely physical mechanisms that drive natural variations in seawater δ13C variability on the North Icelandic shelf.

The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue transmission: a multi-level modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Tzai-Hung; Chen, Tzu-Hsin

2017-04-01

Dengue fever is one of potentially life-threatening mosquito-borne diseases and IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) has confirmed that dengue incidence is sensitive to the critical weather conditions, such as effects of temperature. However, previous literature focused on the effects of monthly or weekly average temperature or accumulative precipitation on dengue incidence. The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue outbreak is under investigated. The purpose of the study focuses on measuring the effect of the intra- and inter-annual variations of temperature and precipitation on dengue outbreaks. We developed the indices of intra-annual temperature variability are maximum continuity, intermittent, and accumulation of most suitable temperature (MST) for dengue vectors; and also the indices of intra-annual precipitation variability, including the measure of continuity of wetness or dryness during a pre-epidemic period; and rainfall intensity during an epidemic period. We used multi-level modeling to investigate the intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998-2015. Our results indicate that accumulation and maximum continuity of MST are more significant than average temperature on dengue outbreaks. The effect of continuity of wetness during the pre-epidemic period is significantly more positive on promoting dengue outbreaks than the rainfall effect during the epidemic period. Meanwhile, extremely high or low rainfall density during an epidemic period do not promote the spread of dengue epidemics. Our study differentiates the effects of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks and also provides policy implications for further dengue control under the threats of climate change. Keywords: dengue fever, meteorological variations, multi-level model

Interannual Variations In the Low-Degree Components of the Geopotential derived from SLR and the Connections With Geophysical/Climatic Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Benjamin F.; Cox, Christopher M.; Au, Andrew Y.

2004-01-01

Recent Satellite Laser Ranging derived long wavelength gravity time series analysis has focused to a large extent on the effects of the recent large changes in the Earth s 52, and the potential causes. However, it is difficult to determine whether there are corresponding signals in the shorter wavelength zonals from the existing SLR-derived time variable gravity results, although it appears that geophysical fluid transport is being observed. For example, the recovered J3 time series shows remarkable agreement with NCEP-derived estimates of atmospheric gravity variations. Likewise, some of the non-zonal spherical harmonic coefficient series have significant interannual signal that appears to be related to mass transport. The non-zonal degree 2 terms show reasonable correlation with atmospheric signals, as well as climatic effects such as El Nino Southern Oscillation. While the formal uncertainty of these terms is significantly higher than that for J2, it is also clear that there is useful signal to be extracted. Consequently, the SLR time series is being reprocessed to improve the time variable gravity field recovery. We will present recent updates on the J2 evolution, as well as a look at other components of the interannual variations of the gravity field, complete through degree 4, and possible geophysical and climatic causes.

Sensitivity of soil respiration to variability in soil moisture and temperature in a humid tropical forest

Treesearch

Tana Wood; M. Detto; W.L. Silver

2013-01-01

Precipitation and temperature are important drivers of soil respiration. The role of moisture and temperature are generally explored at seasonal or inter-annual timescales; however, significant variability also occurs on hourly to daily time-scales. We used small (1.54 m2), throughfall exclusion shelters to evaluate the role soil moisture and temperature as temporal...

Interannual and seasonal variability in short-term grazing impact of Euphausia superba in nearshore and offshore waters west of the Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, R. M.; Quetin, L. B.; Haberman, K. L.

1998-11-01

Our focus in this paper is the interaction between macrozooplanktonic grazers and primary producers, and the interannual and seasonal variability in the Palmer Long-Term Ecological Research (Palmer LTER) study region from Anvers Island to Adelaide Island. Short-term grazing estimates are calculated by integrating (1) theoretical and experimental estimates of ingestion rates in response to the standing stock of phytoplankton, and (2) field measurements of phytoplankton standing stock and grazer biomass. Field data come from three austral summer cruises (January/February of 1993, 1994, and 1995) and one sequence of seasonal cruises (summer, fall and winter 1993). The relative and absolute abundance of the dominant macrozooplankton grazers, Euphausia superba and Salpa thompsoni, varied by at least an order of magnitude on the spatial and temporal scales observed. Mean grazing rates ranged from 0.4 to 9.0 μg chlorophyll m -2 h -1 for the Antarctic krill and salp populations over the three summer cruises. This leads to variability in the flow of carbon from the primary producers through the grazers on the same scales. Temporal and spatial variability in grazing impact and faecal pellet production are high.

ENSO in a warming world: interannual climate variability in the early Miocene Southern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, Bethany; Wilson, Gary; Lee, Daphne

2016-04-01

The El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of interannual variability in the modern-day climate system. ENSO is a quasi-periodic cycle with a recurrence interval of 2-8 years. A major question in modern climatology is how ENSO will respond to increased climatic warmth. ENSO-like (2-8 year) cycles have been detected in many palaeoclimate records for the Holocene. However, the temporal resolution of pre-Quaternary palaeoclimate archives is generally too coarse to investigate ENSO-scale variability. We present a 100-kyr record of ENSO-like variability during the second half of the Oligocene/Miocene Mi-1 event, a period of increasing global temperatures and Antarctic deglaciation (~23.032-2.93 Ma). This record is drawn from an annually laminated lacustrine diatomite from southern New Zealand, a region strongly affected by ENSO in the present day. The diatomite consists of seasonal alternations of light (diatom bloom) and dark (low diatom productivity) layers. Each light-dark couplet represents one year's sedimentation. Light-dark couplet thickness is characterised by ENSO-scale variability. We use high-resolution (sub-annual) measurements of colour spectra to detect couplet thickness variability. Wavelet analysis indicates that absolute values are modulated by orbital cycles. However, when orbital effects are taken into account, ENSO-like variability occurs throughout the entire depositional period, with no clear increase or reduction in relation to Antarctic deglaciation and increasing global warmth.

Evaluation of the Consistency among In Situ and Remote Sensing Measurements of CO2 over North America using the CarbonTracker-Lagrange Regional Inverse Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, A. E.; Trudeau, M.; Hu, L.; Thoning, K. W.; Shiga, Y. P.; Michalak, A. M.; Benmergui, J. S.; Mountain, M. E.; Nehrkorn, T.; O'Dell, C.; Jacobson, A. R.; Miller, J.; Sweeney, C.; Chen, H.; Ploeger, F.; Tans, P. P.

2017-12-01

CarbonTracker-Lagrange (CT-L) is a regional inverse modeling system for estimating CO2 fluxes with rigorous uncertainty quantification. CT-L uses footprints from the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model driven by high-resolution (10 to 30 km) meteorological fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We have computed a library of footprints corresponding to in situ and remote sensing measurements of CO2 over North America for 2007-2015. GOSAT and OCO-2 XCO2 retrievals are simulated using a suite of CT-L terrestrial ecosystem flux estimates that have been optimized with respect to in situ atmospheric CO2 measurements along with fossil fuel fluxes from emissions inventories. A vertical profile of STILT-WRF footprints was constructed corresponding to each simulated satellite retrieval, and CO2 profiles are generated by convolving the footprints with fluxes and attaching initial values advected from the domain boundaries. The stratospheric contribution to XCO2 has been estimated using 4-dimensional CO2 fields from the NOAA CarbonTracker model (version CT2016) and from the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS), after scaling the model fields to match data from the NOAA AirCore surface-to-stratosphere air sampling system. Tropospheric lateral boundary conditions are from CT2016 and from an empirical boundary value product derived from aircraft and marine boundary layer data. The averaging kernel and a priori CO2 profile are taken into account for direct comparisons with retrievals. We have focused on North America due to the relatively dense in situ measurements available with the aim of developing strategies for combined assimilation of in situ and remote sensing data. We will consider the extent to which interannual variability in terrestrial fluxes is manifest in the real and simulated satellite retrievals, and we will investigate possible systematic biases in the satellite retrievals and in the model.

Analysis of top-down and bottom-up North American CO2 and CH4 emissions estimates in the second State of the Carbon Cycle Report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, J. B.; Jacobson, A. R.; Bruhwiler, L.; Michalak, A.; Hayes, D. J.; Vargas, R.

2017-12-01

In just ten years since publication of the original State of the Carbon Cycle Report in 2007, global CO2 concentrations have risen by more than 22 ppm to 405 ppm. This represents 18% of the increase over preindustrial levels of 280 ppm. This increase is being driven unequivocally by fossil fuel combustion with North American emissions comprising roughly 20% of the global total over the past decade. At the global scale, we know by comparing well-known fossil fuel inventories and rates of atmospheric CO2 increase that about half of all emissions are absorbed at Earth's surface. For North America, however, we can not apply a simple mass balance to determine sources and sinks. Instead, contributions from ecosystems must be estimated using top-down and bottom-up methods. SOCCR-2 estimates North American net CO2 uptake from ecosystems using bottom-up (inventory) methods as 577 +/- 433 TgC/yr and 634 +/- 288 TgC/yr from top-down atmospheric inversions. Although the global terrestrial carbon sink is not precisely known, these values represent possibly 30% of the global values. As with net sink estimates reported in SOCCR, these new top-down and bottom-up estimates are statistically consistent with one another. However, the uncertainties on each of these estimates are now substantially smaller, giving us more confidence about where the truth lies. Atmospheric inversions also yield estimates of interannual variations (IAV) in CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Our syntheses suggest that IAV of ecosystem CO2 fluxes is of order 100 TgC/yr, mainly originating in the conterminous US, with lower variability in boreal and arctic regions. Moreover, this variability is much larger than for inventory-based fluxes reported by the US to the UNFCCC. Unlike CO2, bottom-up CH4 emissions are larger than those derived from large-scale atmospheric data, with the continental discrepancy resulting primarily from differences in arctic and boreal regions. In addition to the current state of the science, we will also discuss the primary sources of uncertainty and how existing and emerging measurement and modeling technologies can address them.

Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.

Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. HBut, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDLmore » ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. In addition, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.« less

Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Wittenberg, A. T.

2016-12-01

Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. However, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDL ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. Additionally, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.

Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

DOE PAGES

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; ...

2016-12-02

Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. HBut, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDLmore » ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. In addition, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.« less

On the Interannual Variability and on Trends of the Temperature in the Middle Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Labitzke, K.; Naujokat, B.

1985-01-01

The new Reference Atmosphere presented here is based on global satellite data and forms a very useful basis for climatological studies. When using such climatologies it is important to be aware of the well known interannual variability which n themiddle atmosphere is particularly large during the northern winters and southern springs. Variability ofthe upper and lower stratospheres is discussed in detail. Areas covered included the polar region and the middile and lower latitudes. Temperature trends, notably the alteration of the global temperature structure by a number of anthropogenically influenced tract gases or the greenhouse effect is discussed.

Interannual variability of ammonia concentrations over the United States: sources and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiferl, Luke D.; Heald, Colette L.; Van Damme, Martin; Clarisse, Lieven; Clerbaux, Cathy; Coheur, Pierre-François; Nowak, John B.; Neuman, J. Andrew; Herndon, Scott C.; Roscioli, Joseph R.; Eilerman, Scott J.

2016-09-01

The variability of atmospheric ammonia (NH3), emitted largely from agricultural sources, is an important factor when considering how inorganic fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and nitrogen cycling are changing over the United States. This study combines new observations of ammonia concentration from the surface, aboard aircraft, and retrieved by satellite to both evaluate the simulation of ammonia in a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and identify which processes control the variability of these concentrations over a 5-year period (2008-2012). We find that the model generally underrepresents the ammonia concentration near large source regions (by 26 % at surface sites) and fails to reproduce the extent of interannual variability observed at the surface during the summer (JJA). Variability in the base simulation surface ammonia concentration is dominated by meteorology (64 %) as compared to reductions in SO2 and NOx emissions imposed by regulation (32 %) over this period. Introduction of year-to-year varying ammonia emissions based on animal population, fertilizer application, and meteorologically driven volatilization does not substantially improve the model comparison with observed ammonia concentrations, and these ammonia emissions changes have little effect on the simulated ammonia concentration variability compared to those caused by the variability of meteorology and acid-precursor emissions. There is also little effect on the PM2.5 concentration due to ammonia emissions variability in the summer when gas-phase changes are favored, but variability in wintertime emissions, as well as in early spring and late fall, will have a larger impact on PM2.5 formation. This work highlights the need for continued improvement in both satellite-based and in situ ammonia measurements to better constrain the magnitude and impacts of spatial and temporal variability in ammonia concentrations.

Seasonal Variations of Atmospheric CO2 over Fire Affected Regions Based on GOSAT Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Y.; Matsunaga, T.

2016-12-01

Abstract: The carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions released from biomass burning significantly affect the temporal variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Based on a long-term (July 2009-June 2015) retrieved datasets by the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), the seasonal cycle and interannual variations of column-averaged volume mixing ratios of atmospheric carbon dioxide (XCO2) in four fire affected continental regions were investigated. The results showed Northern Africa had the largest seasonal variations after removing its regional long-term trend of XCO2 with peak-to-peak amplitude of 6.2 ppm within the year, higher than central South America (2.4 ppm), Southern Africa (3.8 ppm) and Australia (1.7 ppm). The detrended regional XCO2 was found to be positively correlated with the fire CO2 emissions during fire activity period and negatively correlated with vegetation photosynthesis activity with different seasonal variabilities. Northern Africa recorded the largest change of seasonal variations of detrended XCO2 with a total of 12.8 ppm during fire seasons, higher than central South America, Southern Africa and Australia with 5.4 ppm, 6.7 ppm and 2.2 ppm, respectively. During fire episode, the positive detrended XCO2 was noticed during June-November in central South America, December-June in Northern Africa, May-November in Southern Africa. The Pearson correlation coefficients between the variations of detrended XCO2 and fire CO2 emissions from GFED4 (Global Fire Emissions Database v4) achieved best correlations in Southern Africa (R=0.77, p<0.05). Meanwhile, Southern Africa also experienced a significant negative relationship between the variations of detrended XCO2 and vegetation activity (R=-0.84, p<0.05). This study revealed that fire CO2 emissions and vegetation activity contributed greatly to the seasonal variations of GOSAT XCO2 dataset.

Potentials and challenges associated with automated closed dynamic chamber measurements of soil CO2 fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Görres, Carolyn-Monika; Kammann, Claudia; Ceulemans, Reinhart

2015-04-01

Soil respiration fluxes are influenced by natural factors such as climate and soil type, but also by anthropogenic activities in managed ecosystems. As a result, soil CO2 fluxes show a large intra- and interannual as well as intra- and intersite variability. Most of the available soil CO2 flux data giving insights into this variability have been measured with manually closed static chambers, but technological advances in the past 15 years have also led to an increased use of automated closed chamber systems. The great advantage of automated chambers in comparison to manually operated chambers is the higher temporal resolution of the flux data. This is especially important if we want to better understand the effects of short-term events, e.g. fertilization or heavy rainfall, on soil CO2 flux variability. However, the chamber method is an invasive measurement method which can potentially alter soil CO2 fluxes and lead to biased measurement results. In the peer-reviewed literature, many papers compare the field performance and results of different closed static chamber designs, or compare manual chambers with automated chamber systems, to identify potential biases in CO2 flux measurements, and thus help to reduce uncertainties in the flux data. However, inter-comparisons of different automated closed dynamic chamber systems are still lacking. Here we are going to present a field comparison of the most-cited automated chamber system, the LI-8100A Automated Soil Flux System, with the also commercially available Greenhouse Gas Monitoring System AGPS. Both measurement systems were installed side by side at a recently harvested poplar bioenergy plantation (POPFULL, http://uahost.uantwerpen.be/popfull/) from April 2014 until August 2014. The plantation provided optimal comparison conditions with a bare field situation after the harvest and a regrowing canopy resulting in a broad variety of microclimates. Furthermore, the plantation was planted in a double-row system with the row width alternating between 1.50 m and 0.75 m, creating spatial differences in e.g. dry bulk density and soil organic carbon content. The soil CO2 flux data sets were split into four subsets each characterized by different environmental conditions, thus presenting different challenges for the measurement equipment, namely 1) daytime, calm conditions, 2) daytime, windy conditions, 3) nighttime, calm conditions, and 4) nighttime, windy conditions. In parallel to the chamber measurements, soil CO2 concentrations were manually measured in the topsoil. Soil CO2 fluxes calculated from this dataset were used as a reference range of soil CO2 fluxes at the field site. Funding support: ERC Advanced Grant agreement (# 233366) POPFULL under the EC 7th Framework Program (FP7/2007-2013), Flemish Hercules Foundation as Infrastructure contract # ZW09-06, and the Methusalem Program of the Flemish Government.

Historical Pattern and Future Trajectories of Terrestrial N2O Emission driven by Multi-factor Global Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, C.; Tian, H.; Yang, J.; Zhang, B.; Xu, R.

2015-12-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is among the most important greenhouse gases only next to carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) due to its long life time and high radiative forcing (with a global warming potential 265 times as much as CO2 at 100-year time horizon). The Atmospheric concentration of N2O has increased by 20% since pre-industrial era, and this increase plays a significant role in shaping anthropogenic climate change. However, compared to CO2- and CH4-related research, fewer studies have been performed in assessing and predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of N2O emission from natural and agricultural soils. Here we used a coupled biogeochemical model, DLEM, to quantify the historical and future changes in global terrestrial N2O emissions resulting from natural and anthropogenic perturbations including climate variability, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover changes, and agricultural land management practices (i.e., synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use, manure application, and irrigation etc.) over the period 1900-2099. We focused on inter-annual variation and long-term trend of terrestrial N2O emission driven by individual and combined environmental changes during historical and future periods. The sensitivity of N2O emission to climate, atmospheric composition, and human activities has been examined at biome-, latitudinal, continental and global scales. Future projections were conducted to identify the hot spots and hot time periods of global N2O emission under two emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). It provides a modeling perspective for understanding human-induced N2O emission growth and developing potential management strategies to mitigate further atmospheric N2O increase and climate warming.

Quantifying the Contribution of Wind-Driven Linear Response to the Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Amoc Volume Transports Across 26.5ºN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu, K.; von Storch, J. S.; Haak, H.; Nakayama, K.; Marotzke, J.

2014-12-01

Surface wind stress is considered to be an important forcing of the seasonal and interannual variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) volume transports. A recent study showed that even linear response to wind forcing captures observed features of the mean seasonal cycle. However, the study did not assess the contribution of wind-driven linear response in realistic conditions against the RAPID/MOCHA array observation or Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) simulations, because it applied a linear two-layer model to the Atlantic assuming constant upper layer thickness and density difference across the interface. Here, we quantify the contribution of wind-driven linear response to the seasonal and interannual variability of AMOC transports by comparing wind-driven linear simulations under realistic continuous stratification against the RAPID observation and OCGM (MPI-OM) simulations with 0.4º resolution (TP04) and 0.1º resolution (STORM). All the linear and MPI-OM simulations capture more than 60% of the variance in the observed mean seasonal cycle of the Upper Mid-Ocean (UMO) and Florida Strait (FS) transports, two components of the upper branch of the AMOC. The linear and TP04 simulations also capture 25-40% of the variance in the observed transport time series between Apr 2004 and Oct 2012; the STORM simulation does not capture the observed variance because of the stochastic signal in both datasets. Comparison of half-overlapping 12-month-long segments reveals some periods when the linear and TP04 simulations capture 40-60% of the observed variance, as well as other periods when the simulations capture only 0-20% of the variance. These results show that wind-driven linear response is a major contributor to the seasonal and interannual variability of the UMO and FS transports, and that its contribution varies in an interannual timescale, probably due to the variability of stochastic processes.

Are Low-order Covariance Estimates Useful in Error Analyses?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, D. F.; Schimel, D.

2005-12-01

Atmospheric trace gas inversions, using modeled atmospheric transport to infer surface sources and sinks from measured concentrations, are most commonly done using least-squares techniques that return not only an estimate of the state (the surface fluxes) but also the covariance matrix describing the uncertainty in that estimate. Besides allowing one to place error bars around the estimate, the covariance matrix may be used in simulation studies to learn what uncertainties would be expected from various hypothetical observing strategies. This error analysis capability is routinely used in designing instrumentation, measurement campaigns, and satellite observing strategies. For example, Rayner, et al (2002) examined the ability of satellite-based column-integrated CO2 measurements to constrain monthly-average CO2 fluxes for about 100 emission regions using this approach. Exact solutions for both state vector and covariance matrix become computationally infeasible, however, when the surface fluxes are solved at finer resolution (e.g., daily in time, under 500 km in space). It is precisely at these finer scales, however, that one would hope to be able to estimate fluxes using high-density satellite measurements. Non-exact estimation methods such as variational data assimilation or the ensemble Kalman filter could be used, but they achieve their computational savings by obtaining an only approximate state estimate and a low-order approximation of the true covariance. One would like to be able to use this covariance matrix to do the same sort of error analyses as are done with the full-rank covariance, but is it correct to do so? Here we compare uncertainties and `information content' derived from full-rank covariance matrices obtained from a direct, batch least squares inversion to those from the incomplete-rank covariance matrices given by a variational data assimilation approach solved with a variable metric minimization technique (the Broyden-Fletcher- Goldfarb-Shanno algorithm). Two cases are examined: a toy problem in which CO2 fluxes for 3 latitude bands are estimated for only 2 time steps per year, and for the monthly fluxes for 22 regions across 1988-2003 solved for in the TransCom3 interannual flux inversion of Baker, et al (2005). The usefulness of the uncertainty estimates will be assessed as a function of the number of minimization steps used in the variational approach; this will help determine whether they will also be useful in the high-resolution cases that we would most like to apply the non-exact methods to. Baker, D.F., et al., TransCom3 inversion intercomparison: Impact of transport model errors on the interannual variability of regional CO2 fluxes, 1988-2003, Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles, doi:10.1029/2004GB002439, 2005, in press. Rayner, P.J., R.M. Law, D.M. O'Brien, T.M. Butler, and A.C. Dilley, Global observations of the carbon budget, 3, Initial assessment of the impact of satellite orbit, scan geometry, and cloud on measuring CO2 from space, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D21), 4557, doi:10.1029/2001JD000618, 2002.

Environmental links to interannual variability in shellfish toxicity in Cobscook Bay and eastern Maine, a strongly tidally mixed coastal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horecka, Hannah M.; Thomas, Andrew C.; Weatherbee, Ryan A.

2014-05-01

The Gulf of Maine experiences annual closures of shellfish harvesting due to the accumulation of toxins produced by dinoflagellates of the genus Alexandrium. Factors controlling the timing, location, and magnitude of these events in eastern Maine remain poorly understood. Previous work identified possible linkages between interannual variability of oceanographic variables and shellfish toxicity along the western Maine coastline but no such linkages were evident along the eastern Maine coast in the vicinity of Cobscook Bay, where strong tidal mixing tends to reduce seasonal variability in oceanographic properties. Using 21 years (1985-2005) of shellfish toxicity data, interannual variability in two metrics of annual toxicity, maximum magnitude and total annual toxicity, from stations in the Cobscook Bay region are examined for relationships to a suite of available environmental variables. Consistent with earlier work, no (or only weak) correlations were found between toxicity and oceanographic variables, even those very proximate to the stations such as local sea surface temperature. Similarly no correlations were evident between toxicity and air temperature, precipitation or relative humidity. The data suggest possible connections to local river discharge, but plausible mechanisms are not obvious. Correlations between toxicity and two variables indicative of local meteorological conditions, dew point and atmospheric pressure, both suggest a link between increased toxicity in these eastern Maine stations and weather conditions characterized by clearer skies/drier air (or less stormy/humid conditions). As no correlation of opposite sign was evident between toxicity and local precipitation, one plausible link is through light availability and its positive impact on phytoplankton production in this persistently foggy section of coast. These preliminary findings point to both the value of maintaining long-term shellfish toxicity sampling and a need for inclusion of weather variability in future modeling studies aimed at development of a more mechanistic understanding of factors controlling interannual differences in eastern Gulf of Maine shellfish toxicity.

Application of Spaceborne Scatterometer for Mapping Freeze-Thaw State in Northern Landscapes as a Measure of Ecological and Hydrological Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McDonald, Kyle; Kimball, John; Zimmermann, Reiner; Way, JoBea; Frolking, Steve; Running, Steve

1994-01-01

Landscape freeze/thaw transitions coincide with marked shifts in albedo, surface energy and mass exchange, and associated snow dynamics. monitoring landscape freeze/thaw dynamics would improve our ability to quantify the interannual variability of boreal hydrology and river runoff/flood dynamics, The annual duration of frost-free period also bounds the period of photosynthetic activity in borel and arctic regions thus affecting the carbon budget and the interannual variability fo regional carbon fluxes.

Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

2016-12-01

Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

Simulated permafrost soil thermal dynamics during 1960-2009 in eight offline processed-based models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, S.; Gouttevin, I.; Krinner, G.; Ciais, P.

2013-12-01

Permafrost soil thermal dynamics not only determine the status of permafrost, but also have large impacts on permafrost organic carbon decomposition. Here, we used eight processed based models that participated in the Vulnerability Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network (RCN) project to investigate: (1) the trends in soil temperature at different depths over the northern hemisphere permafrost region during the past five decades, and (2) which factors drive trends and inter-annual variability of permafrost soil temperature? The simulated annual soil temperature at 20cm increases by ~0.02 °C per year from 1960 to 2009 (ranging from 0.00 °C per year in CoLM to 0.04 °C per year in ISBA). Most models simulated more warming of soil in spring and winter than in summer and autumn, although there were different seasonal trends in different models. Trends in soil temperature decrease with soil depth in all models. To quantify the contributions of various factors (air temperature, precipitation, downward longwave radiation etc.) to trends and inter-annual variation in soil temperature, we ran offline models with detrended air temperature, precipitation, downward longwave radiation, respectively. Our results suggest that both annual air temperature and downward longwave radiation significantly correlate with annual soil temperature. Moreover, trend in air temperature and downward longwave radiation contribute 30% and 60% to trends in soil temperature (0 - 200cm), respectively, during the period 1960-2009. Spatial distributions of trend in annual soil temperature at 20cm from R01 simulations of (a) CLM4, (b) CoLM, (c) ISBA, (d) JULES, (e) LPJ_GUESS, (f) ORCHIDEE, (g) UVic and (h) UW-VIC during the period 1960-2009.

Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the interannual variability of tropospheric ozone in the northern midlatitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koumoutsaris, S.; Bey, I.; Generoso, S.; Thouret, V.

2008-10-01

We use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chem (GEOS-Chem) model to interpret long-term measurements of tropospheric ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) and to investigate the factors that contribute to their interannual variation (IAV) during the period from 1987 to 2005. The model reproduces relatively well the observed IAV of CO. The simulation of O3 IAV is not as successful. In particular, the negative anomalies in 1991-1993 and the following upward trend in 1993-1996 observed at several sites in the northern midlatitudes are not reproduced by the model, which may result from a poor representation of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics. We examine in detail the period of 1998-1999 when a large anomaly in tropospheric ozone column is observed and simulated over Europe (maximum of +4.9 Dobson units). Three consecutive periods can be distinguished from January 1998 to April 1999, during which different processes affected the O3 burden over Europe. Spring 1998 is largely influenced by the preceding 1997 El Niño that affects (1) stratosphere-troposphere exchange and (2) Asian pollution export and transport toward Europe by a change in convective activity in East Asia and a strengthening of the subtropical jet stream. An enhanced pollution export from North America is also noticed for this period. The second period (summer-fall 1998) shows a mixed influence from both boreal wildfires and Asian pollution. The third period is influenced by enhanced wildfires in Southeast Asia. Throughout the period from 1987 to 2005, positive anomalies in tropospheric O3 column and in surface O3 are found over Europe in the spring following an El Niño year.

Testing a land model in ecosystem functional space via a comparison of observed and modeled ecosystem flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses in a Central U.S. forest: Test Model in Ecosystem Functional Space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen G.; Yang, Bai

Testing complex land surface models has often proceeded by asking the question: does the model prediction agree with the observation? This approach has yet led to high-performance terrestrial models that meet the challenges of climate and ecological studies. Here we test the Community Land Model (CLM) by asking the question: does the model behave like an ecosystem? We pursue its answer by testing CLM in the ecosystem functional space (EFS) at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) forest site in the Central U.S., focusing on carbon and water flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses. In the observed EFS, precipitationmore » regimes and associated water and heat stresses controlled seasonal and interannual variations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 and evapotranspiration in this deciduous forest ecosystem. Such controls were exerted more strongly by precipitation variability than by the total precipitation amount per se. A few simply constructed climate variability indices captured these controls, suggesting a high degree of potential predictability. While the interannual fluctuation in NEE was large, a net carbon sink was maintained even during an extreme drought year. Although CLM predicted seasonal and interanual variations in evapotranspiration reasonably well, its predictions of net carbon uptake were too small across the observed range of climate variability. Also, the model systematically underestimated the sensitivities of NEE and evapotranspiration to climate variability and overestimated the coupling strength between carbon and water fluxes. Its suspected that the modeled and observed trajectories of ecosystem fluxes did not overlap in the EFS and the model did not behave like the ecosystem it attempted to simulate. A definitive conclusion will require comprehensive parameter and structural sensitivity tests in a rigorous mathematical framework. We also suggest that future model improvements should focus on better representation and parameterization of process responses to environmental stresses and on more complete and robust representations of carbon-specific processes so that adequate responses to climate variability and a proper degree of coupling between carbon and water exchanges are captured.« less

Testing a land model in ecosystem functional space via a comparison of observed and modeled ecosystem flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses in a Central U.S. forest: Test Model in Ecosystem Functional Space

DOE PAGES

Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen G.; Yang, Bai; ...

2016-07-14

Testing complex land surface models has often proceeded by asking the question: does the model prediction agree with the observation? This approach has yet led to high-performance terrestrial models that meet the challenges of climate and ecological studies. Here we test the Community Land Model (CLM) by asking the question: does the model behave like an ecosystem? We pursue its answer by testing CLM in the ecosystem functional space (EFS) at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) forest site in the Central U.S., focusing on carbon and water flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses. In the observed EFS, precipitationmore » regimes and associated water and heat stresses controlled seasonal and interannual variations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 and evapotranspiration in this deciduous forest ecosystem. Such controls were exerted more strongly by precipitation variability than by the total precipitation amount per se. A few simply constructed climate variability indices captured these controls, suggesting a high degree of potential predictability. While the interannual fluctuation in NEE was large, a net carbon sink was maintained even during an extreme drought year. Although CLM predicted seasonal and interanual variations in evapotranspiration reasonably well, its predictions of net carbon uptake were too small across the observed range of climate variability. Also, the model systematically underestimated the sensitivities of NEE and evapotranspiration to climate variability and overestimated the coupling strength between carbon and water fluxes. Its suspected that the modeled and observed trajectories of ecosystem fluxes did not overlap in the EFS and the model did not behave like the ecosystem it attempted to simulate. A definitive conclusion will require comprehensive parameter and structural sensitivity tests in a rigorous mathematical framework. We also suggest that future model improvements should focus on better representation and parameterization of process responses to environmental stresses and on more complete and robust representations of carbon-specific processes so that adequate responses to climate variability and a proper degree of coupling between carbon and water exchanges are captured.« less

Evaluating the applicability of using daily forecasts from seasonal prediction systems (SPSs) for agriculture: a case study of Nepal's Terai with the NCEP CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jha, Prakash K.; Athanasiadis, Panos; Gualdi, Silvio; Trabucco, Antonio; Mereu, Valentina; Shelia, Vakhtang; Hoogenboom, Gerrit

2018-03-01

Ensemble forecasts from dynamic seasonal prediction systems (SPSs) have the potential to improve decision-making for crop management to help cope with interannual weather variability. Because the reliability of crop yield predictions based on seasonal weather forecasts depends on the quality of the forecasts, it is essential to evaluate forecasts prior to agricultural applications. This study analyses the potential of Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) in predicting the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) for producing meteorological variables relevant to crop modeling. The focus area was Nepal's Terai region, and the local hindcasts were compared with weather station and reanalysis data. The results showed that the CFSv2 model accurately predicts monthly anomalies of daily maximum and minimum air temperature (Tmax and Tmin) as well as incoming total surface solar radiation (Srad). However, the daily climatologies of the respective CFSv2 hindcasts exhibit significant systematic biases compared to weather station data. The CFSv2 is less capable of predicting monthly precipitation anomalies and simulating the respective intra-seasonal variability over the growing season. Nevertheless, the observed daily climatologies of precipitation fall within the ensemble spread of the respective daily climatologies of CFSv2 hindcasts. These limitations in the CFSv2 seasonal forecasts, primarily in precipitation, restrict the potential application for predicting the interannual variability of crop yield associated with weather variability. Despite these limitations, ensemble averaging of the simulated yield using all CFSv2 members after applying bias correction may lead to satisfactory yield predictions.

Spatial and temporal variations in plant water-use efficiency inferred from tree-ring, eddy covariance and atmospheric observations

DOE PAGES

Dekker, Stefan C.; Groenendijk, Margriet; Booth, Ben B. B.; ...

2016-06-28

Plant water-use efficiency (WUE), which is the ratio of the uptake of carbon dioxide through photosynthesis to the loss of water through transpiration, is a very useful metric of the functioning of the land biosphere. WUE is expected to increase with atmospheric CO 2, but to decline with increasing atmospheric evaporative demand – which can arise from increases in near-surface temperature or decreases in relative humidity. We have used Δ 13C measurements from tree rings, along with eddy covariance measurements from Fluxnet sites, to estimate the sensitivities of WUE to changes in CO 2 and atmospheric humidity deficit. This enablesmore » us to reconstruct fractional changes in WUE, based on changes in atmospheric climate and CO 2, for the entire period of the instrumental global climate record. We estimate that overall WUE increased from 1900 to 2010 by 48 ± 22 %, which is more than double that simulated by the latest Earth System Models. This long-term trend is largely driven by increases in CO 2, but significant inter-annual variability and regional differences are evident due to variations in temperature and relative humidity. Here, there are several highly populated regions, such as western Europe and East Asia, where the rate of increase of WUE has declined sharply in the last 2 decades. Our data-based analysis indicates increases in WUE that typically exceed those simulated by Earth System Models – implying that these models are either underestimating increases in photosynthesis or underestimating reductions in transpiration.« less

Anthropogenic and climatic influences on carbon fluxes from eastern North America to the Atlantic Ocean: A process-based modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Hanqin; Yang, Qichun; Najjar, Raymond G.; Ren, Wei; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Hopkinson, Charles S.; Pan, Shufen

2015-04-01

The magnitude, spatiotemporal patterns, and controls of carbon flux from land to the ocean remain uncertain. Here we applied a process-based land model with explicit representation of carbon processes in streams and rivers to examine how changes in climate, land conversion, management practices, atmospheric CO2, and nitrogen deposition affected carbon fluxes from eastern North America to the Atlantic Ocean, specifically the Gulf of Maine (GOM), Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB), and South Atlantic Bight (SAB). Our simulation results indicate that the mean annual fluxes (±1 standard deviation) of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC), and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the past three decades (1980-2008) were 2.37 ± 0.60, 1.06 ± 0.20, and 3.57 ± 0.72 Tg C yr-1, respectively. Carbon export demonstrated substantial spatial and temporal variability. For the region as a whole, the model simulates a significant decrease in riverine DIC fluxes from 1901 to 2008, whereas there were no significant trends in DOC or POC fluxes. In the SAB, however, there were significant declines in the fluxes of all three forms of carbon, and in the MAB subregion, DIC and POC fluxes declined significantly. The only significant trend in the GOM subregion was an increase in DIC flux. Climate variability was the primary cause of interannual variability in carbon export. Land conversion from cropland to forest was the primary factor contributing to decreases in all forms of C export, while nitrogen deposition and fertilizer use, as well as atmospheric CO2 increases, tended to increase DOC, POC, and DIC fluxes.

Indo-Pacific ENSO modes in a double-basin Zebiak-Cane model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieners, Claudia; de Ruijter, Will; Dijkstra, Henk

2016-04-01

We study Indo-Pacific interactions on ENSO timescales in a double-basin version of the Zebiak-Cane ENSO model, employing both time integrations and bifurcation analysis (continuation methods). The model contains two oceans (the Indian and Pacific Ocean) separated by a meridional wall. Interaction between the basins is possible via the atmosphere overlaying both basins. We focus on the effect of the Indian Ocean (both its mean state and its variability) on ENSO stability. In addition, inspired by analysis of observational data (Wieners et al, Coherent tropical Indo-Pacific interannual climate variability, in review), we investigate the effect of state-dependent atmospheric noise. Preliminary results include the following: 1) The background state of the Indian Ocean stabilises the Pacific ENSO (i.e. the Hopf bifurcation is shifted to higher values of the SST-atmosphere coupling), 2) the West Pacific cooling (warming) co-occurring with El Niño (La Niña) is essential to simulate the phase relations between Pacific and Indian SST anomalies, 3) a non-linear atmosphere is needed to simulate the effect of the Indian Ocean variability onto the Pacific ENSO that is suggested by observations.

[Application of regression tree in analyzing the effects of climate factors on NDVI in loess hilly area of Shaanxi Province].

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Lü, Yi-he; Zheng, Hai-feng; Chen, Li-ding

2010-05-01

Based on the 10-day SPOT VEGETATION NDVI data and the daily meteorological data from 1998 to 2007 in Yan' an City, the main meteorological variables affecting the annual and interannual variations of NDVI were determined by using regression tree. It was found that the effects of test meteorological variables on the variability of NDVI differed with seasons and time lags. Temperature and precipitation were the most important meteorological variables affecting the annual variation of NDVI, and the average highest temperature was the most important meteorological variable affecting the inter-annual variation of NDVI. Regression tree was very powerful in determining the key meteorological variables affecting NDVI variation, but could not build quantitative relations between NDVI and meteorological variables, which limited its further and wider application.

Recent studies of the optical properties of dust and cloud particles in the Mars atmosphere and the interannual frequency of global dust storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clancy, R. T.; Lee, S. W.; Muhleman, D. O.

1991-01-01

The results of research with two distinctly separate sets of observations yield new information on the optical properties of particulate scatterers in the Mars atmosphere, and on the interannual variability of the abundance of such scatterers in the Mars atmosphere. The first set of observations were taken by the IRTM (Infrared Thermal Mapper) instrument onboard the Viking Orbiters, during the period 1976 to 1980. Several hundred emission phase function (EPF) sequences were obtained over the Viking mission, in which the IRTM visual brightness channel observed the same area of surface/atmosphere as the spacecraft passed overhead. The 1 to 2 percent accuracy of calibration and the phase-angle coverage that characterizes these data make them ideally suited to determining both the optical depths and optical properties of dust and cloud scatterers in the Mars atmosphere versus latitude, longitude, seasons (L sub s), and surface elevation over the extended period of Viking observations. The EPF data were analyzed with a multiple scattering radiative transfer code to determine dust single scattering albedos which are distinctly higher than indicated by the Viking Lander observations. The second set of observations regard ground-based observations of the 1.3 to 2.6 mm rotational transitions of CO in the Martian atmosphere. The low-to-mid latitude average of the atmospheric temperature profile (0 to 70 km altitude) were derived from a number of such observations over the 1980 to 1990 period.

Using present day observations to detect when ocean acidification exceeds natural variability of surface seawater Ωaragonite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, A.; Sabine, C. L.; Feely, R. A.

2016-02-01

One of the major challenges to assessing the impact of ocean acidification on marine life is the need to better understand the magnitude of long-term change in the context of natural variability. High-frequency moored observations can be highly effective in defining interannual, seasonal, and subseasonal variability at key locations. Here we present monthly aragonite saturation state (Ωaragonite) climatology for 15 open ocean, coastal, and coral reef locations using 3-hourly moored observations of surface seawater pCO2 and pH collected together since as early as 2009. We then use these present day surface mooring observations to estimate pre-industrial variability at each location and compare these results to previous modeling studies addressing global-scale variability and change. Our observations suggest that open oceans sites, especially in the subtropics, are experiencing Ωaragonite values throughout much of the year which are outside the range of pre-industrial values. In coastal and coral reef ecosystems, which have higher natural variability, seasonal patterns where present day Ωaragonite values exceeding pre-industrial bounds are emerging with some sites exhibiting subseasonal conditions approaching Ωaragonite = 1. Linking these seasonal patterns in carbonate chemistry to biological processes in these regions is critical to identify when and where marine life may encounter Ωaragonite values outside the conditions to which they have adapted.

Inter-annual and spatial variability in hillslope runoff and mercury flux during spring snowmelt.

PubMed

Haynes, Kristine M; Mitchell, Carl P J

2012-08-01

Spring snowmelt is an important period of mercury (Hg) export from watersheds. Limited research has investigated the potential effects of climate variability on hydrologic and Hg fluxes during spring snowmelt. The purpose of this research was to assess the potential impacts of inter-annual climate variability on Hg mobility in forested uplands, as well as spatial variability in hillslope hydrology and Hg fluxes. We compared hydrological flows, Hg and solute mobility from three adjacent hillslopes in the S7 watershed of the Marcell Experimental Forest, Minnesota during two very different spring snowmelt periods: one following a winter (2009-2010) with severely diminished snow accumulation (snow water equivalent (SWE) = 48 mm) with an early melt, and a second (2010-2011) with significantly greater winter snow accumulation (SWE = 98 mm) with average to late melt timing. Observed inter-annual differences in total Hg (THg) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) yields were predominantly flow-driven, as the proportion by which solute yields increased was the same as the increase in runoff. Accounting for inter-annual differences in flow, there was no significant difference in THg and DOC export between the two snowmelt periods. The spring 2010 snowmelt highlighted the important contribution of melting soil frost in the timing of a considerable portion of THg exported from the hillslope, accounting for nearly 30% of the THg mobilized. Differences in slope morphology and soil depths to the confining till layer were important in controlling the large observed spatial variability in hydrological flowpaths, transmissivity feedback responses, and Hg flux trends across the adjacent hillslopes.

The Modern Near-Surface Martian Climate: A Review of In-Situ Meteorological Data from Viking to Curiosity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martinez, G. M.; Newman, C. N.; De Vicente-Retortillo, A.; Fischer, E.; Renno, N. O.; Richardson, M. I.; Fairén, A. G.; Genzer, M.; Guzewich, S. D.; Haberle, R. M.;

Quantifying Interannual Variability for Photovoltaic Systems in PVWatts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ryberg, David Severin; Freeman, Janine; Blair, Nate

2015-10-01

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) PVWatts is a relatively simple tool used by industry and individuals alike to easily estimate the amount of energy a photovoltaic (PV) system will produce throughout the course of a typical year. PVWatts Version 5 has previously been shown to be able to reasonably represent an operating system's output when provided with concurrent weather data, however this type of data is not available when estimating system output during future time frames. For this purpose PVWatts uses weather data from typical meteorological year (TMY) datasets which are available on the NREL website. The TMY filesmore » represent a statistically 'typical' year which by definition excludes anomalous weather patterns and as a result may not provide sufficient quantification of project risk to the financial community. It was therefore desired to quantify the interannual variability associated with TMY files in order to improve the understanding of risk associated with these projects. To begin to understand the interannual variability of a PV project, we simulated two archetypal PV system designs, which are common in the PV industry, in PVWatts using the NSRDB's 1961-1990 historical dataset. This dataset contains measured hourly weather data and spans the thirty years from 1961-1990 for 239 locations in the United States. To note, this historical dataset was used to compose the TMY2 dataset. Using the results of these simulations we computed several statistical metrics which may be of interest to the financial community and normalized the results with respect to the TMY energy prediction at each location, so that these results could be easily translated to similar systems. This report briefly describes the simulation process used and the statistical methodology employed for this project, but otherwise focuses mainly on a sample of our results. A short discussion of these results is also provided. It is our hope that this quantification of the interannual variability of PV systems will provide a starting point for variability considerations in future PV system designs and investigations. however this type of data is not available when estimating system output during future time frames.« less

Analysis of Trends in the Seasonal Cycle of Atmospheric CO2 in the Northern Hemisphere from 1958 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piper, S. C.; Keeling, R. F.; Patra, P. K.; Welp, L. R.

2011-12-01

We present an analysis of the trends and interannual variations in the phase and amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 at Northern Hemisphere stations of the Scripps network from 1958 to 2010. The seasonal cycle here primarily reflects biospheric activity over large land regions and provides a strong constraint on NEE. The analysis includes observational records at Pt. Barrow (71°N), La Jolla (33°N), and Kumukahi (20°N), in addition to Mauna Loa (20°N), Station Papa (50°N), and Alert, Canada (82°N). We compare observations with forward atmospheric transport simulations which employ interannually-varying reanalyzed winds with seasonally variable terrestrial biospheric, oceanic and fossil fuel sources to account for atmospheric transport. The observed increase in seasonal amplitude since 1958 has varied among stations and with time at each station. The temporal changes often have not been coherent among stations. The amplitude increased less than 10% at Mauna Loa and 45% at Barrow, Alaska from the 1960s. The record at Alert, which started in 1986, appears to match variations at Barrow, and recent measurements at Station Papa in the Alaskan Gyre suggest an increase intermediate between that of Mauna Loa and Point Barrow. The most striking increase has been at midlatitudes at La Jolla, about 60% since the late 1950s in part resulting from changes in local meteorological conditions. For Barrow and Mauna Loa, the amplitude increased rapidly from 1970 to 1990, after which it slowed significantly at Barrow, and decreased at Mauna Loa. The variations at Alert were similar to those at Barrow suggesting that both records are representative of large-scale Arctic air masses. Kumukahi and Mauna Loa are located at the same latitude but different altitudes. For common years of record in 1980-2000, the amplitude at both stations varied interannually but without a long term trend. After 2000, however, the amplitude at Mauna Loa increased dramatically to 2004 and decreased to 2009, while the amplitude at Kumukahi increased slowly. These differences reflect different influences of source regions and transport at the two stations. Climate variations are an important driver for both the long term trend and shorter term interannual variations in the seasonal amplitude. However, several studies for short periods suggest that atmospheric transport has an important influence. Model simulations with interannually-varying winds for the entire Mauna Loa record, from 1958 to 2010, indicate that the long-term advance in the observed phase at Mauna Loa, by about 8 days in 50 years, is produced by atmospheric transport up until 1990, but not afterward. Observed variations in the seasonal amplitude however are poorly simulated suggesting that variations in terrestrial sources, perhaps driven by temperature before 1990 and drought afterwards may be important as suggested in previous studies. Findings for the remaining stations will be presented. As a whole, temporal and spatial variations in amplitude and phase reflect a complex interplay of climate-driven changes in sources and atmospheric transport.

Transport variability of the Brazil Current from observations and a data assimilation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmid, Claudia; Majumder, Sudip

2018-06-01

The Brazil Current transports from observations and the Hybrid Coordinate Model (HYCOM) model are analyzed to improve our understanding of the current's structure and variability. A time series of the observed transport is derived from a three-dimensional field of the velocity in the South Atlantic covering the years 1993 to 2015 (hereinafter called Argo & SSH). The mean transports of the Brazil Current increases from 3.8 ± 2.2 Sv (1 Sv is 106 m3 s-1) at 25° S to 13.9 ± 2.6 Sv at 32° S, which corresponds to a mean slope of 1.4 ± 0.4 Sv per degree. Transport estimates derived from HYCOM fields are somewhat higher (5.2 ± 2.7 and 18.7 ± 7.1 Sv at 25 and 32° S, respectively) than those from Argo & SSH, but these differences are small when compared with the standard deviations. Overall, the observed latitude dependence of the transport of the Brazil Current is in agreement with the wind-driven circulation in the super gyre of the subtropical South Atlantic. A mean annual cycle with highest (lowest) transports in austral summer (winter) is found to exist at selected latitudes (24, 35, and 38° S). The significance of this signal shrinks with increasing latitude (both in Argo & SSH and HYCOM), mainly due to mesoscale and interannual variability. Both Argo & SSH, as well as HYCOM, reveal interannual variability at 24 and 35° S that results in relatively large power at periods of 2 years or more in wavelet spectra. It is found that the interannual variability at 24° S is correlated with the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole Mode (SASD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and the Niño 3.4 index. Similarly, correlations between SAM and the Brazil Current transport are also found at 35° S. Further investigation of the variability reveals that the first and second mode of a coupled empirical orthogonal function of the meridional transport and the sea level pressure explain 36 and 15 % of the covariance, respectively. Overall, the results indicate that SAM, SASD, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation have an influence on the transport of the Brazil Current.

The predicted CLARREO sampling error of the inter-annual SW variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doelling, D. R.; Keyes, D. F.; Nguyen, C.; Macdonnell, D.; Young, D. F.

2009-12-01

The NRC Decadal Survey has called for SI traceability of long-term hyper-spectral flux measurements in order to monitor climate variability. This mission is called the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) and is currently defining its mission requirements. The requirements are focused on the ability to measure decadal change of key climate variables at very high accuracy. The accuracy goals are set using anticipated climate change magnitudes, but the accuracy achieved for any given climate variable must take into account the temporal and spatial sampling errors based on satellite orbits and calibration accuracy. The time period to detect a significant trend in the CLARREO record depends on the magnitude of the sampling calibration errors relative to the current inter-annual variability. The largest uncertainty in climate feedbacks remains the effect of changing clouds on planetary energy balance. Some regions on earth have strong diurnal cycles, such as maritime stratus and afternoon land convection; other regions have strong seasonal cycles, such as the monsoon. However, when monitoring inter-annual variability these cycles are only important if the strength of these cycles vary on decadal time scales. This study will attempt to determine the best satellite constellations to reduce sampling error and to compare the error with the current inter-annual variability signal to ensure the viability of the mission. The study will incorporate Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) (Monthly TOA/Surface Averages) SRBAVG product TOA LW and SW climate quality fluxes. The fluxes are derived by combining Terra (10:30 local equator crossing time) CERES fluxes with 3-hourly 5-geostationary satellite estimated broadband fluxes, which are normalized using the CERES fluxes, to complete the diurnal cycle. These fluxes were saved hourly during processing and considered the truth dataset. 90°, 83° and 74° inclination precessionary orbits as well as sun-synchronous orbits will be evaluated. This study will focus on the SW radiance, since these low earth orbits are only in daylight for half the orbit. The precessionary orbits were designed to cycle through all solar zenith angles over the course of a year. The inter-annual variability sampling error will be stratified globally/zonally and annually/seasonally and compared with the corresponding truth anomalies.

Predicting Trophic Interactions and Habitat Utilization in the California Current Ecosystem

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

spatial and temporal distribution of key marine organisms over multiple trophic levels, and (2) natural and anthropogenic variability in ecosystem...areas of climate modeling in upwelling regions (E. Curchitser), physical-biological modeling in the CCLME (J. Fiechter and C. Edwards), data...optimal growth conditions). By comparing interannual changes in fat depot against EOF modes for environmental variability (i.e., SST) and prey

Quantifying the impact of El Niño-driven variations in temperature and precipitation on regional atmospheric CO2 growth rate variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keppel-Aleks, G.; Butterfield, Z.; Doney, S. C.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Miller, J.; Morton, D. C.

2017-12-01

Quantifying the climatic drivers of variations in atmospheric CO2 observations over a range of timescales is necessary to develop a mechanistic understanding of the global carbon cycle that will enable prediction of future changes. Here, we combine NOAA cooperative global air sampling network CO2 observations, remote sensing data, and a flux perturbation model to quantify the feedbacks between interannual variability in physical climate and the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. In particular, we focus on the differences between the 1997/1998 El Niño and the 2015/2016 El Niño during which atmospheric CO2 increased at an unprecedented rate. The flux perturbation model was trained on data from 1997 to 2012, and then used to predict regional atmospheric CO2 growth rate anomalies for the period from 2013 through 2016. Given gridded temperature anomalies from the Hadley Center's Climate Research Unit (CRU), precipitation anomalies from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFEDv4s), the model was able to the reproduce regional growth rate variations observed at marine boundary layer stations in the NOAA network, including the rapid CO2 growth rate in 2015/2016. The flux perturbation model output suggests that the carbon cycle responses differed for1997 and 2015 El Niño periods, with tropical precipitation anomalies causing a much larger net flux of CO2 to the atmosphere during the latter period, while direct fire emissions dominated the former. The flux perturbation model also suggests that high temperature stress in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics contributed almost one-third of the CO2 growth rate enhancement during the 2015 El Niño. We use satellite-based metrics for atmospheric column CO2, vegetation, and moisture to corroborate the regional El Niño impacts from the flux perturbation model. Finally, we discuss how these observational results and independent data on ocean air-sea flux anomalies, couched in an empirical model, may be useful for evaluating the fidelity of mechanistic land models.

De-coupling interannual variations of vertical dust extinction over the Taklimakan Desert during 2007-2016 using CALIOP.

PubMed

Nan, Yang; Wang, Yuxuan

2018-03-26

During the springtime, mineral dust from the Taklimakan Desert (TD) is lifted up to high altitudes and transported long distances by the westerlies. The vertical distributions of Taklimakan dust are important for both long-range transport and climate effects. In this study, we use CALIOP Level 3 dust extinction to describe interannual variation of dust extinction in TD aggregated at each 1km interval (1-2km, 2-3km, 3-4km, 4-5km and 5-6km) above mean sea level during springtime from 2007 to 2016. 87% of dust extinction over TD is concentrated at 1-4km taking a major composition of dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) and only 8.1% dust AOD is at 4-6km. Interannual variation of seasonal and monthly dust extinction at 1-4km is almost as same as dust AOD (R>0.99) but different from that at 4-6km (R are around 0.42). Our analysis provides observational evidence from CALIOP that vertical dust extinction over TD has distinctively different variability below and above 4km altitude and this threshold divides dust transport in TD into two systems. Taklimakan dust aerosols are more related to dust transport at high altitudes (4-10km) than low altitudes (0-4km) over downwind regions. High dust extinction below 4km over TD is necessary but not sufficient conditions to ensure dust transport easterly, while high dust extinction levels at 4-6km over TD are both necessary and sufficient conditions; such contrast leads to the de-coupled interannual variability seen by CALIOP. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

Despite the strong dependence of the Power Dissipation Index (PDI), which is a measure of the intensity of Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity, on tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), the variations in PDI are not completely explained by SST. Here we show, using an analysis of a string of observational data sets, that the variability of the thermocline depth (TD) in the east Pacific exerts a significant degree of control on the variability of PDI in that region. On average, a deep thermocline with a larger reservoir of heat favors TC intensification by reducing SST cooling while a shallow thermocline with amore » smaller heat reservoir promotes enhanced SST cooling that contributes to TC decay. At interannual time scales, the variability of basin-mean TD accounts for nearly 30% of the variability in the PDI during the TC season. Also, about 20% of the interannual variability in the east Pacific basin-mean TD is due to the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a dominant climate signal in this region. This study suggests that a better understanding of the factors governing the interannual variability of the TD conditions in the east Pacific and how they may change over time, may lead to an improved projection of future east Pacific TC activity.« less

Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esselborn, Saskia; Rudenko, Sergei; Schöne, Tilo

2018-03-01

Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year), and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS), and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability) with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr-1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability) and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr-1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test orbits calculated at GFZ, the sources of the observed orbit-related errors are further investigated. The main contributors on all timescales are uncertainties in Earth's time-variable gravity field models and on annual to interannual timescales discrepancies of the tracking station subnetworks, i.e. satellite laser ranging (SLR) and Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS).

Interannual variability of primary production and air-sea CO2 flux in the Atlantic and Indian sectors of the Southern Ocean.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufour, Carolina; Merlivat, Liliane; Le Sommer, Julien; Boutin, Jacqueline; Antoine, David

2013-04-01

As one of the major oceanic sinks of anthropogenic CO2, the Southern Ocean plays a critical role in the climate system. However, due to the scarcity of observations, little is known about physical and biological processes that control air-sea CO2 fluxes and how these processes might respond to climate change. It is well established that primary production is one of the major drivers of air-sea CO2 fluxes, consuming surface Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) during Summer. Southern Ocean primary production is though constrained by several limiting factors such as iron and light availability, which are both sensitive to mixed layer depth. Mixed layer depth is known to be affected by current changes in wind stress or freshwater fluxes over the Southern Ocean. But we still don't know how primary production may respond to anomalous mixed layer depth neither how physical processes may balance this response to set the seasonal cycle of air-sea CO2 fluxes. In this study, we investigate the impact of anomalous mixed layer depth on surface DIC in the Atlantic and Indian sectors of the Subantarctic zone of the Southern Ocean (60W-60E, 38S-55S) with a combination of in situ data, satellite data and model experiment. We use both a regional eddy permitting ocean biogeochemical model simulation based on NEMO-PISCES and data-based reconstruction of biogeochemical fields based on CARIOCA buoys and SeaWiFS data. A decomposition of the physical and biological processes driving the seasonal variability of surface DIC is performed with both the model data and observations. A good agreement is found between the model and the data for the amplitude of biological and air-sea flux contributions. The model data are further used to investigate the impact of winter and summer anomalies in mixed layer depth on surface DIC over the period 1990-2004. The relative changes of each physical and biological process contribution are quantified and discussed.

Influence of the Bermuda High on interannual variability of summertime ozone in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuxuan; Jia, Beixi; Wang, Sing-Chun; Estes, Mark; Shen, Lu; Xie, Yuanyu

2016-12-01

The Bermuda High (BH) quasi-permanent pressure system is the key large-scale circulation pattern influencing summertime weather over the eastern and southern US. Here we developed a multiple linear regression (MLR) model to characterize the effect of the BH on year-to-year changes in monthly-mean maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) metropolitan region during June, July, and August (JJA). The BH indicators include the longitude of the BH western edge (BH-Lon) and the BH intensity index (BHI) defined as the pressure gradient along its western edge. Both BH-Lon and BHI are selected by MLR as significant predictors (p < 0.05) of the interannual (1990-2015) variability of the HGB-mean ozone throughout JJA, while local-scale meridional wind speed is selected as an additional predictor for August only. Local-scale temperature and zonal wind speed are not identified as important factors for any summer month. The best-fit MLR model can explain 61-72 % of the interannual variability of the HGB-mean summertime ozone over 1990-2015 and shows good performance in cross-validation (R2 higher than 0.48). The BH-Lon is the most important factor, which alone explains 38-48 % of such variability. The location and strength of the Bermuda High appears to control whether or not low-ozone maritime air from the Gulf of Mexico can enter southeastern Texas and affect air quality. This mechanism also applies to other coastal urban regions along the Gulf Coast (e.g., New Orleans, LA, Mobile, AL, and Pensacola, FL), suggesting that the BH circulation pattern can affect surface ozone variability through a large portion of the Gulf Coast.

Searching Sinks and Sources: CO2 Fluxes Before and After Partial Deforestation of a Spruce Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ney, P.; Graf, A.; Druee, C.; Esser, O.; Klosterhalfen, A.; Valler, V.; Pick, K.; Vereecken, H.

2017-12-01

Forest ecosystems in the northern mid-latitudes act as a sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and hence play an important role in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Disturbances of these landscapes may have a significant impact on their ecosystem carbon budget. We present seven years of eddy covariance (EC) measurements (September 2013 to September 2017) over a 70 year old spruce stock, including three years prior to and four years after partial deforestation. We analyzed the seasonal and inter-annual changes of carbon fluxes as affected mainly by the forest transition. The measurements were carried out in a small headwater catchment (38.5 ha) within the TERENO (TERrestrial Environmental Observatories) network in the Eifel National Park Germany (50°30'N, 06°19'E, 595-629 m a.s.l.). An EC system, mounted on the top of a 38 m high tower, continuously samples fluxes of momentum, sensible heat, latent heat and CO2. In August and September 2013, more than 20% of the catchment was deforested and planned for regeneration towards natural deciduous vegetation, and a second EC station (2.5 m height) was installed in the middle of this clearcut. Flux partitioning and gap filling methods were used to calculate full time series and annual carbon budgets of the measured net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and its components gross primary production (GPP) and total ecosystem respiration (Reco). Additionally, soil respiration was measured with manual chambers on a monthly to bi-monthly basis at 25 transect points in the forest and deforested area. Annual sums of NEE represent the forest as a carbon sink with small inter-annual variability. In contrast, the deforested area showed a clear trend. In the first year after partial deforestation, regrowth on the deforested area consisted mainly of grasses and red foxglove (Digitalis purpurea L.), while since the second year also growth of mountain ash (Sorbus aucuparia L.) and broom (Cytisus scoparius L.) increased. The regrowth of biomass is reflected in the annual sums of NEE, which decreased from + 500 g C m-2 y-1 to nearly zero over the past four years, due to an increase in the magnitude of GPP.

The role of fire in the pan-tropical carbon budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Werf, G.; Randerson, J. T.; Giglio, L.; Baccini, A.; Morton, D. C.; DeFries, R. S.

2012-12-01

Fires are an important management tool in the tropics and subtropics, and are used in the deforestation process, to manage savanna areas, and burn agricultural waste. Satellite-derived datasets of precipitation, aboveground tree biomass, and burned area are now available with over a decade worth of data for precipitation and burned area. Here we used these datasets to assess fire carbon emissions, to better understand relations between interannual variability in precipitation rates and fire activity, and to test ecological hypotheses centered on the role of fire and climate in governing biomass loads in the tropics and subtropics. We show that while most fire carbon emissions are from savanna fires, fires in deforestation regions are crucial from a net carbon emissions perspective and for emissions of reduced trace gases. These tropical fires burning in the dry season increase the amplitude of the CO2 exchange seasonality, in contrast to fires in the boreal region. We then show the large interannual variability of fires and highlight the difference in response of fires to changes in precipitation rates between dry and wet regions. Finally, by studying relations between fire, climate, and biomass, we show that savanna areas that saw fires over the past decade had lower tree biomass than those that did not, but only in medium or high rainfall areas. In areas up to about a meter of rain annually, tree biomass increased monotonically whether there were fires or not. In higher rainfall areas, precipitation seasonality appeared to be a crucial factor in explaining potential biomass. These results show that a world without fires may change the savanna carbon landscape less dramatically than often thought.

Study on the association of green house gas (CO2) with monsoon rainfall using AIRS and TRMM satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, R. B.; Janmaijaya, M.; Dhaka, S. K.; Kumar, V.

Monsoon water cycle is the lifeline to over 60 per cent of the world's population. Throughout history, the monsoon-related calamities of droughts and floods have determined the life pattern of people. The association of Green House Gases (GHGs) particularly Carbon dioxide (CO2) with monsoon has been greatly debated amongst the scientific community in the past. The effect of CO2 on the monsoon rainfall over the Indian-Indonesian region (8-30°N, 65°-100°E) is being investigated using satellite data. The correlation coefficient (Rxy) between CO2 and monsoon is analysed. The Rxy is not significantly positive over a greater part of the study region, except a few regions. The inter-annual anomalies of CO2 is identified for playing a secondary role to influencing monsoon while other phenomenon like ENSO might be exerting a much greater influence.

The Effects of Disturbance and Climate on Carbon Storage and the Exchanges of CO 2 Water Vapor and Energy Exchange of Evergreen Coniferous Forests in the Pacific Northwest: Integration of Eddy Flux, Plant and Soil Measurements at a Cluster of Supersites. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beverly E. Law; Thomas, Christoph K.

This is the final technical report containing a summary of all findings with regard to the following objectives of the project: (1) To quantify and understand the effects of wildfire on carbon storage and the exchanges of energy, CO2, and water vapor in a chronosequence of ponderosa pine (disturbance gradient); (2) To investigate the effects of seasonal and interannual variation in climate on carbon storage and the exchanges of energy, CO2, and water vapor in mature conifer forests in two climate zones: mesic 40-yr old Douglas-fir and semi-arid 60-yr old ponderosa pine (climate gradient); (3) To reduce uncertainty in estimatesmore » of CO2 feedbacks to the atmosphere by providing an improved model formulation for existing biosphere-atmosphere models; and (4) To provide high quality data for AmeriFlux and the NACP on micrometeorology, meteorology, and biology of these systems. Objective (1): A study integrating satellite remote sensing, AmeriFlux data, and field surveys in a simulation modeling framework estimated that the pyrogenic carbon emissions, tree mortality, and net carbon exchange associated with four large wildfires that burned ~50,000 hectares in 2002-2003 were equivalent to 2.4% of Oregon statewide anthropogenic carbon emissions over the same two-year period. Most emissions were from the combustion of the forest floor and understory vegetation, and only about 1% of live tree mass was combusted on average. Objective (2): A study of multi-year flux records across a chronosequence of ponderosa pine forests yielded that the net carbon uptake is over three times greater at a mature pine forest compared with young pine. The larger leaf area and wetter and cooler soils of the mature forest mainly caused this effect. A study analyzing seven years of carbon and water dynamics showed that interannual and seasonal variability of net carbon exchange was primarily related to variability in growing season length, which was a linear function of plant-available soil moisture in spring and early summer. A multi-year drought (2001-2003) led to a significant reduction of net ecosystem exchange due to carry-over effects in soil moisture and carbohydrate reserves in plant-tissue. In the same forest, the interannual variability in the rate carbon is lost from the soil and forest floor is considerable and related to the variability in tree growth as much as it is to variability in soil climatic conditions. Objective (3): Flux data from the mature ponderosa pine site support a physical basis for filtering nighttime data with friction velocity above the canopy. An analysis of wind fields and heat transport in the subcanopy at the mesic 40-year old Douglas site yielded that the non-linear structure and behavior of spatial temperature gradients and the flow field require enhanced sensor networks to estimate advective fluxes in the subcanopy of forest to close the surface energy balance in forests. Reliable estimates for flux uncertainties are needed to improve model validation and data assimilation in process-based carbon models, inverse modeling studies and model-data synthesis, where the uncertainties may be as important as the fluxes themselves. An analysis of the time scale dependence of the random and flux sampling error yielded that the additional flux obtained by increasing the perturbation timescale beyond about 10 minutes is dominated by random sampling error, and therefore little confidence can be placed in its value. Artificial correlation between gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (Re) is a consequence of flux partitioning of eddy covariance flux data when GEP is computed as the difference between NEE and computed daytime Re (e.g. using nighttime Re extrapolated into daytime using soil or air temperatures). Tower-data must be adequately spatially averaged before comparison to gridded model output as the time variability of both is inherently different. The eddy-covariance data collected at the mature ponderosa pine site and the mesic Douglas fir site were used to develop and evaluate a new method to extract the signal of ecosystem respiration directly from daytime net ecosystem exchange. This approach may help reducing uncertainty in carbon budgets by providing direct measurements of ecosystem respiration during daylight conditions by replacing modeled estimates. Objective (4): We submitted our flux and biological and ancillary data to the AmeriFlux web site and to Fluxnet. This includes atmospheric carbon, water, and heat fluxes, soil fluxes, NPP, carbon stocks, LAI, and disturbance history. Fluxnet is updating the original La Thuile files and will include the more recent years of data. They will be using a new approach to compute GPP, following discussions within the network about the need to improve GPP methodology« less

The Geostationary Fourier Transform Spectrometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Key, Richard; Sander, Stanley; Eldering, Annmarie; Blavier, Jean-Francois; Bekker, Dmitriy; Manatt, Ken; Rider, David; Wu, Yen-Hung

2012-01-01

The Geostationary Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GeoFTS) is an imaging spectrometer designed for a geostationary orbit (GEO) earth science mission to measure key atmospheric trace gases and process tracers related to climate change and human activity. GEO allows GeoFTS to continuously stare at a region of the earth for frequent sampling to capture the variability of biogenic fluxes and anthropogenic emissions from city to continental spatial scales and temporal scales from diurnal, synoptic, seasonal to interannual. The measurement strategy provides a process based understanding of the carbon cycle from contiguous maps of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), and chlorophyll fluorescence (CF) collected many times per day at high spatial resolution (2.7kmx2.7km at nadir). The CO2/CH4/CO/CF measurement suite in the near infrared spectral region provides the information needed to disentangle natural and anthropogenic contributions to atmospheric carbon concentrations and to minimize uncertainties in the flow of carbon between the atmosphere and surface. The half meter cube size GeoFTS instrument is based on a Michelson interferometer design that uses all high TRL components in a modular configuration to reduce complexity and cost. It is self-contained and as independent of the spacecraft as possible with simple spacecraft interfaces, making it ideal to be a "hosted" payload on a commercial communications satellite mission. The hosted payload approach for measuring the major carbon-containing gases in the atmosphere from the geostationary vantage point will affordably advance the scientific understating of carbon cycle processes and climate change.

A sensitivity study of the coupled simulation of the Northeast Brazil rainfall variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, Vasubandhu

2007-06-01

Two long-term coupled ocean-land-atmosphere simulations with slightly different parameterization of the diagnostic shallow inversion clouds in the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) coupled climate model are compared for their annual cycle and interannual variability of the northeast Brazil (NEB) rainfall variability. It is seen that the solar insolation affected by the changes to the shallow inversion clouds results in large scale changes to the gradients of the SST and the surface pressure. The latter in turn modulates the surface convergence and the associated Atlantic ITCZ precipitation and the NEB annual rainfall variability. In contrast, the differences in the NEB interannual rainfall variability between the two coupled simulations is attributed to their different remote ENSO forcing.

Hydroclimate variations in central and monsoonal Asia over the past 700 years.

PubMed

Fang, Keyan; Chen, Fahu; Sen, Asok K; Davi, Nicole; Huang, Wei; Li, Jinbao; Seppä, Heikki

2014-01-01

Hydroclimate variations since 1300 in central and monsoonal Asia and their interplay on interannual and interdecadal timescales are investigated using the tree-ring based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstructions. Both the interannual and interdecadal variations in both regions are closely to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). On interannual timescale, the most robust correlations are observed between PDO and hydroclimate in central Asia. Interannual hydroclimate variations in central Asia are more significant during the warm periods with high solar irradiance, which is likely due to the enhanced variability of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the high-frequency component of PDO, during the warm periods. We observe that the periods with significant interdecadal hydroclimate changes in central Asia often correspond to periods without significant interdecadal variability in monsoonal Asia, particularly before the 19th century. The PDO-hydroclimate relationships appear to be bridged by the atmospheric circulation between central North Pacific Ocean and Tibetan Plateau, a key area of PDO. While, in some periods the atmospheric circulation between central North Pacific Ocean and monsoonal Asia may lead to significant interdecadal hydroclimate variations in monsoonal Asia.

Hydroclimate Variations in Central and Monsoonal Asia over the Past 700 Years

PubMed Central

Fang, Keyan; Chen, Fahu; Sen, Asok K.; Davi, Nicole; Huang, Wei; Li, Jinbao; Seppä, Heikki

2014-01-01

Hydroclimate variations since 1300 in central and monsoonal Asia and their interplay on interannual and interdecadal timescales are investigated using the tree-ring based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstructions. Both the interannual and interdecadal variations in both regions are closely to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). On interannual timescale, the most robust correlations are observed between PDO and hydroclimate in central Asia. Interannual hydroclimate variations in central Asia are more significant during the warm periods with high solar irradiance, which is likely due to the enhanced variability of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the high-frequency component of PDO, during the warm periods. We observe that the periods with significant interdecadal hydroclimate changes in central Asia often correspond to periods without significant interdecadal variability in monsoonal Asia, particularly before the 19th century. The PDO-hydroclimate relationships appear to be bridged by the atmospheric circulation between central North Pacific Ocean and Tibetan Plateau, a key area of PDO. While, in some periods the atmospheric circulation between central North Pacific Ocean and monsoonal Asia may lead to significant interdecadal hydroclimate variations in monsoonal Asia. PMID:25119567

Tightening of tropical ascent and high clouds key to precipitation change in a warmer climate

PubMed Central

Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Neelin, J. David; Shen, T. Janice; Zhai, Chengxing; Yue, Qing; Wang, Zhien; Huang, Lei; Choi, Yong-Sang; Stephens, Graeme L.; Yung, Yuk L.

2017-01-01

The change of global-mean precipitation under global warming and interannual variability is predominantly controlled by the change of atmospheric longwave radiative cooling. Here we show that tightening of the ascending branch of the Hadley Circulation coupled with a decrease in tropical high cloud fraction is key in modulating precipitation response to surface warming. The magnitude of high cloud shrinkage is a primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the changes of tropical-mean outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and global-mean precipitation per unit surface warming (dP/dTs) for both interannual variability and global warming. Compared to observations, most Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 models underestimate the rates of interannual tropical-mean dOLR/dTs and global-mean dP/dTs, consistent with the muted tropical high cloud shrinkage. We find that the five models that agree with the observation-based interannual dP/dTs all predict dP/dTs under global warming higher than the ensemble mean dP/dTs from the ∼20 models analysed in this study. PMID:28589940

Interannual variability of mean sea level and its sensitivity to wind climate in an inter-tidal basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerkema, Theo; Duran-Matute, Matias

2017-12-01

The relationship between the annual wind records from a weather station and annual mean sea level in an inter-tidal basin, the Dutch Wadden Sea, is examined. Recent, homogeneous wind records are used, covering the past 2 decades. It is demonstrated that even such a relatively short record is sufficient for finding a convincing relationship. The interannual variability of mean sea level is largely explained by the west-east component of the net wind energy, with some further improvement if one also includes the south-north component and the annual mean atmospheric pressure. Using measured data from a weather station is found to give a slight improvement over reanalysis data, but for both the correlation between annual mean sea level and wind energy in the west-east direction is high. For different tide gauge stations in the Dutch Wadden Sea and along the coast, we find the same qualitative characteristics, but even within this small region, different locations show a different sensitivity of annual mean sea level to wind direction. Correcting observed values of annual mean level for meteorological factors reduces the margin of error (expressed as 95 % confidence interval) by more than a factor of 4 in the trends of the 20-year sea level record. Supplementary data from a numerical hydrodynamical model are used to illustrate the regional variability in annual mean sea level and its interannual variability at a high spatial resolution. This study implies that climatic changes in the strength of winds from a specific direction may affect local annual mean sea level quite significantly.

Explaining the inter-annual variability in the ecosystem fluxes of the Brasschaat Scots pine forest: 20 years of eddy flux and pollution monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horemans, Joanna; Roland, Marilyn; Janssens, Ivan; Ceulemans, Reinhart

2017-04-01

Because of their ecological and recreational value, the health of forest ecosystems and their response to global change and pollution are of high importance. At a number of EuroFlux and ICOS ecosystem sites in Europe - as the Brasschaat forest site - the measurements of ecosystem fluxes of carbon and other gases are combined with vertical profiles of air pollution within the framework of the ICP-Forest monitoring program. The Brasschaat forest is dominated by 80-year old Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.), and has a total area of about 150 ha. It is situated near an urban area in the Campine region of Flanders, Belgium and is characterized by a mean annual temperature of 9.8 °C and an annual rainfall of 830 mm. In this contribution we report on a long-term analysis (1996-2016) of the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes, the energy exchanges and the pollutant concentrations (ozone, NOx, NH3, SO2). Particular interest goes to the inter-annual variation of the carbon fluxes and the carbon allocation patterns. The impact of the long-term (aggregated) and the short-term variability in both the meteorological drivers and in the main tropospheric pollutants on the carbon fluxes is examined, as well as their mutual interactive effects and their potential memory effect. The effect of variability in the drivers during the phenological phases (seasonality) on the inter-annual variability of the fluxes is also examined. Basic statistical techniques as well as spectral analyses and data mining techniques are being used.

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on food production in the Ganges basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siderius, Christian; Biemans, Hester; van Walsum, Paul; hellegers, Petra; van Ierland, Ekko; Kabat, Pavel

2014-05-01

Rainfall variability is expected to increase in the coming decades as the world warms. Especially in regions already water stressed, a higher rainfall variability will jeopardize food security. Recently, the impact of inter-annual rainfall variability has received increasing attention in regional to global analysis on water availability and food security. But the description of the dynamics behind it is still incomplete in most models. Contemporary land surface and hydrological models used for such analyses describe variability in production primarily as a function of yield, a process driven by biophysical parameters, thereby neglecting yearly variations in cropped area, a process driven largely by management decisions. Agricultural statistics for northern India show that the latter process could explain up to 40% of the observed inter-annual variation in food production in various states. We added a simple dynamic land use decision module to a land surface model (LPJmL) and analyzed to what extent this improved the estimation of variability in food production. Using this improved modelling framework we then assessed if and at which scale rainfall variability affects meeting the food self-sufficiency threshold. Early results for the Ganges Basin indicate that, while on basin level variability in crop production is still relatively low, several districts and states are highly affected (RSTD > 50%). Such insight can contribute to better recommendations on the most effective measures, at the most appropriate scale, to buffer variability in food production.

Relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation in Singapore during 1980-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

2017-04-01

Observed studies on inter-annual variation of precipitation provide insight into the response of precipitation to anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability. Inter-annual variation of precipitation results from the concurrent variations of precipitation frequency and intensity, understanding of the relative importance of frequency and intensity in the variability of precipitation can help fathom its changing properties. Investigation of the long-term changes of precipitation schemes has been extensively carried out in many regions across the world, however, detailed studies of the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation are still limited, especially in the tropics. Therefore, this study presents a comprehensive framework to investigate the inter-annual variation of precipitation and the dominance of precipitation frequency and intensity in a tropical urban city-state, Singapore, based on long-term (1980-2013) daily precipitation series from 22 rain gauges. First, an iterative Mann-Kendall trend test method is applied to detect long-term trends in precipitation total, frequency and intensity at both annual and seasonal time scales. Then, the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inducing the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation total is analyzed using a dominance analysis method based on linear regression. The results show statistically significant upward trends in wet-day precipitation total, frequency and intensity at annual time scale, however, these trends are not evident during the monsoon seasons. The inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation intensity for most of the stations at annual time scale and during the Northeast monsoon season. However, during the Southwest monsoon season, the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation frequency. These results have implications for water resources management practices in Singapore.

Sea level anomaly in the North Atlantic and seas around Europe: Long-term variability and response to North Atlantic teleconnection patterns.

PubMed

Iglesias, Isabel; Lorenzo, M Nieves; Lázaro, Clara; Fernandes, M Joana; Bastos, Luísa

2017-12-31

Sea level anomaly (SLA), provided globally by satellite altimetry, is considered a valuable proxy for detecting long-term changes of the global ocean, as well as short-term and annual variations. In this manuscript, monthly sea level anomaly grids for the period 1993-2013 are used to characterise the North Atlantic Ocean variability at inter-annual timescales and its response to the North Atlantic main patterns of atmospheric circulation variability (North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia, Scandinavian and Polar/Eurasia) and main driven factors as sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and wind fields. SLA variability and long-term trends are analysed for the North Atlantic Ocean and several sub-regions (North, Baltic and Mediterranean and Black seas, Bay of Biscay extended to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, and the northern North Atlantic Ocean), depicting the SLA fluctuations at basin and sub-basin scales, aiming at representing the regions of maximum sea level variability. A significant correlation between SLA and the different phases of the teleconnection patterns due to the generated winds, sea level pressure and sea surface temperature anomalies, with a strong variability on temporal and spatial scales, has been identified. Long-term analysis reveals the existence of non-stationary inter-annual SLA fluctuations in terms of the temporal scale. Spectral density analysis has shown the existence of long-period signals in the SLA inter-annual component, with periods of ~10, 5, 4 and 2years, depending on the analysed sub-region. Also, a non-uniform increase in sea level since 1993 is identified for all sub-regions, with trend values between 2.05mm/year, for the Bay of Biscay region, and 3.98mm/year for the Baltic Sea (no GIA correction considered). The obtained results demonstrated a strong link between the atmospheric patterns and SLA, as well as strong long-period fluctuations of this variable in spatial and temporal scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sea level trend and variability around the Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luu, Q. H.; Tkalich, P.; Tay, T. W.

2014-06-01

Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. Resulting sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); while long-term sea level trend is related to global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability around the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 1.6 mm yr-1 and 2.7 ± 1.0 mm yr-1, respectively. Allowing for corresponding vertical land movements (VLM; 0.8 ± 2.6 mm yr-1 and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm yr-1), their absolute SLR rates are 3.2 ± 4.2 mm yr-1 and 3.6 ± 3.2 mm yr-1, respectively. For the common period 1993-2009, absolute SLR rates obtained from both tide gauge and satellite altimetry in Peninsular Malaysia are similar; and they are slightly higher than the global tendency. It further underlines that VLM should be taken into account to get better estimates of SLR observations. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian coast in the range of ±5 cm with a very high correlation. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies mainly in the Malacca Strait in the range of ±2 cm with a high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index. Seasonally, SLAs are mainly monsoon-driven, in the order of 10-25 cm. Geographically, sea level responds differently to the monsoon: two cycles per year are observed in the Malacca Strait, presumably due to South Asian-Indian Monsoon; whereas single annual cycle is noted along east coast of Peninsular Malaysia, mostly due to East Asian-Western Pacific Monsoon. These results imply that a narrow topographic constriction in Singapore Strait may separate different modes of annual and interannual sea level variability along coastline of Peninsular Malaysia.

Increasing summer net CO 2 uptake in high northern ecosystems inferred from atmospheric inversions and comparisons to remote-sensing NDVI

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Welp, Lisa R.; Patra, Prabir K.; Rodenbeck, Christian

Warmer temperatures and elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations over the last several decades have been credited with increasing vegetation activity and photosynthetic uptake of CO 2 from the atmosphere in the high northern latitude ecosystems: the boreal forest and arctic tundra. At the same time, soils in the region have been warming, permafrost is melting, fire frequency and severity are increasing, and some regions of the boreal forest are showing signs of stress due to drought or insect disturbance. The recent trends in net carbon balance of these ecosystems, across heterogeneous disturbance patterns, and the future implications of these changesmore » are unclear. Here, we examine CO 2 fluxes from northern boreal and tundra regions from 1985 to 2012, estimated from two atmospheric inversions (RIGC and Jena). Both used measured atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and wind fields from interannually variable climate reanalysis. In the arctic zone, the latitude region above 60°N excluding Europe (10 W-63°E), neither inversion finds a significant long-term trend in annual CO 2 balance. The boreal zone, the latitude region from approximately 50–60°N, again excluding Europe, showed a trend of 8–11 TgCyr -2 over the common period of validity from 1986 to 2006, resulting in an annual CO 2 sink in 2006 that was 170–230 TgCyr -1 larger than in 1986. This trend appears to continue through 2012 in the Jena inversion as well. In both latitudinal zones, the seasonal amplitude of monthly CO 2 fluxes increased due to increased uptake in summer, and in the arctic zone also due to increased fall CO 2 release. These findings suggest that the boreal zone has been maintaining and likely increasing CO 2 sink strength over this period, despite browning trends in some regions and changes in fire frequency and land use. Meanwhile, the arctic zone shows that increased summer CO 2 uptake, consistent with strong greening trends, is offset by increased fall CO 2 release, resulting in a net neutral trend in annual fluxes. Finally, the inversion fluxes from the arctic and boreal zones covering the permafrost regions showed no indication of a large-scale positive climate–carbon feedback caused by warming temperatures on high northern latitude terrestrial CO 2 fluxes from 1985 to 2012.« less

Increasing summer net CO 2 uptake in high northern ecosystems inferred from atmospheric inversions and comparisons to remote-sensing NDVI

DOE PAGES

Welp, Lisa R.; Patra, Prabir K.; Rodenbeck, Christian; ...

2016-07-25

Warmer temperatures and elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations over the last several decades have been credited with increasing vegetation activity and photosynthetic uptake of CO 2 from the atmosphere in the high northern latitude ecosystems: the boreal forest and arctic tundra. At the same time, soils in the region have been warming, permafrost is melting, fire frequency and severity are increasing, and some regions of the boreal forest are showing signs of stress due to drought or insect disturbance. The recent trends in net carbon balance of these ecosystems, across heterogeneous disturbance patterns, and the future implications of these changesmore » are unclear. Here, we examine CO 2 fluxes from northern boreal and tundra regions from 1985 to 2012, estimated from two atmospheric inversions (RIGC and Jena). Both used measured atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and wind fields from interannually variable climate reanalysis. In the arctic zone, the latitude region above 60°N excluding Europe (10 W-63°E), neither inversion finds a significant long-term trend in annual CO 2 balance. The boreal zone, the latitude region from approximately 50–60°N, again excluding Europe, showed a trend of 8–11 TgCyr -2 over the common period of validity from 1986 to 2006, resulting in an annual CO 2 sink in 2006 that was 170–230 TgCyr -1 larger than in 1986. This trend appears to continue through 2012 in the Jena inversion as well. In both latitudinal zones, the seasonal amplitude of monthly CO 2 fluxes increased due to increased uptake in summer, and in the arctic zone also due to increased fall CO 2 release. These findings suggest that the boreal zone has been maintaining and likely increasing CO 2 sink strength over this period, despite browning trends in some regions and changes in fire frequency and land use. Meanwhile, the arctic zone shows that increased summer CO 2 uptake, consistent with strong greening trends, is offset by increased fall CO 2 release, resulting in a net neutral trend in annual fluxes. Finally, the inversion fluxes from the arctic and boreal zones covering the permafrost regions showed no indication of a large-scale positive climate–carbon feedback caused by warming temperatures on high northern latitude terrestrial CO 2 fluxes from 1985 to 2012.« less

Decadal Record of Satellite Carbon Monoxide Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worden, Helen; Deeter, Merritt; Frankenberg, Christian; George, Maya; Nichitiu, Florian; Worden, John; Aben, Ilse; Bowman, Kevin; Clerbaux, Cathy; Coheur, Pierre-Francois; de Laat, Jos; Warner, Juying; Drummond, James; Edwards, David; Gille, John; Hurtmans, Daniel; Ming, Luo; Martinez-Alonso, Sara; Massie, Steven; Pfister, Gabriele

2013-04-01

Atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) distributions are controlled by anthropogenic emissions, biomass burning, chemical production, transport and oxidation by reaction with the hydroxyl radical (OH). Quantifying trends in CO is therefore important for understanding changes related to all of these contributions. Here we present a comprehensive record of satellite observations from 2000 through 2011 of total column CO using the available measurements from nadir-viewing thermal infrared instruments: MOPITT, AIRS, TES and IASI. We examine trends for CO in the Northern and Southern hemispheres along with regional trends for E. China, E. USA, Europe and India. Measurement and sampling methods for each of the instruments are discussed, and we show diagnostics for systematic errors in MOPITT trends. We find that all the satellite observations are consistent with a modest decreasing trend around -1%/year in total column CO over the Northern hemisphere for this time period. Decreasing trends in total CO column are observed for the United States, Europe and E. China with more than 2σ significance. For India, the trend is also decreasing, but smaller in magnitude and less significant. Decreasing trends in surface CO have also been observed from measurements in the U.S. and Europe. Although less information is available for surface CO in China, there is a decreasing trend reported for Beijing. Some of the interannual variability in the observations can be explained by global fire emissions, and there may be some evidence of the global financial crisis in late 2008 to early 2009. But the overall decrease needs further study to understand the implications for changes in anthropogenic emissions.

Remote Sensing of Particulate Organic Carbon Pools in the High-Latitude Oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stramski, Dariusz; Stramska, Malgorzata

2005-01-01

The general goal of this project was to characterize spatial distributions at basin scales and variability on monthly to interannual timescales of particulate organic carbon (POC) in the high-latitude oceans. The primary objectives were: (1) To collect in situ data in the north polar waters of the Atlantic and in the Southern Ocean, necessary for the derivation of POC ocean color algorithms for these regions. (2) To derive regional POC algorithms and refine existing regional chlorophyll (Chl) algorithms, to develop understanding of processes that control bio-optical relationships underlying ocean color algorithms for POC and Chl, and to explain bio-optical differentiation between the examined polar regions and within the regions. (3) To determine basin-scale spatial patterns and temporal variability on monthly to interannual scales in satellite-derived estimates of POC and Chl pools in the investigated regions for the period of time covered by SeaWiFS and MODIS missions.

Large net CO2 loss from a grass-dominated tropical savanna in south-central Brazil in response to seasonal and interannual drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanella De Arruda, Paulo Henrique; Vourlitis, George Louis; Santanna, Franciele Bomfiglio; Pinto, Osvaldo Borges, Jr.; De Almeida Lobo, Francisco; De Souza Nogueira, José

2016-08-01

The savanna vegetation of Brazil (Cerrado) accounts for 20-25% of the land cover of Brazil and is the second largest ecosystem following Amazonian forest; however, Cerrado mass and energy exchange is still highly uncertain. We used eddy covariance to measure the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of grass-dominated Cerrado (campo sujo) over 3 years. We hypothesized that soil water availability would be a key control over the seasonal and interannual variations in NEE. Multiple regression indicated that gross primary production (GPP) was positively correlated (Pearson's r = 0.69; p < 0.001) with soil water content, radiation, and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived enhanced vegetation index (EVI) but negatively correlated with the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), indicating that drier conditions increased water limitations on GPP. Similarly, ecosystem respiration (Reco) was positively correlated (Pearson's r = 0.78; p < 0.001) with the EVI, radiation, soil water content, and temperature but slightly negatively correlated with rainfall and the VPD. While the NEE responded rapidly to temporal variations in soil water availability, the grass-dominated Cerrado stand was a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere during the study period, which was drier compared to the long-term average rainfall. Cumulative NEE was approximately 842 gC m-2, varying from 357 gC m-2 in 2011 to 242 gC m-2 in 2012. Our results indicate that grass-dominated Cerrado may be an important regional CO2 source in response to the warming and drying that is expected to occur in the southern Amazon Basin under climate change.

Thermosphere Extension of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-04

tropospheric ozone and related tracers: Description and evaluation of MOZART, version 2, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D24), 4784, doi:10.1029/2002JD002853. Immel, T... troposphere to the upper thermosphere and their variability on interannual, seasonal, and daily scales. These quantities are compared with observational and...gravity waves are excited by tropospheric processes. As their amplitudes grow exponen- tially with altitude, they will cause larger variability

El Niño-Southern oscillation variability from the late cretaceous marca shale of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davies, Andrew; Kemp, Alan E.S.; Weedon, Graham P.; Barron, John A.

2012-01-01

Changes in the possible behavior of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with global warming have provoked interest in records of ENSO from past “greenhouse” climate states. The latest Cretaceous laminated Marca Shale of California permits a seasonal-scale reconstruction of water column flux events and hence interannual paleoclimate variability. The annual flux cycle resembles that of the modern Gulf of California with diatoms characteristic of spring upwelling blooms followed by silt and clay, and is consistent with the existence of a paleo–North American Monsoon that brought input of terrigenous sediment during summer storms and precipitation runoff. Variation is also indicated in the extent of water column oxygenation by differences in lamina preservation. Time series analysis of interannual variability in terrigenous sediment and diatom flux and in the degree of bioturbation indicates strong periodicities in the quasi-biennial (2.1–2.8 yr) and low-frequency (4.1–6.3 yr) bands both characteristic of ENSO forcing, as well as decadal frequencies. This evidence for robust Late Cretaceous ENSO variability does not support the theory of a “permanent El Niño,” in the sense of a continual El Niño–like state, in periods of warmer climate.

Investigating the role of the land surface in explaining the interannual variation of the net radiation balance over the Western Sahara and sub-Sahara

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Nicholson, Sharon

1987-01-01

The status of the data sets is discussed. Progress was made in both data analysis and modeling areas. The atmospheric and land surface contributions to the net radiation budget over the Sahara-Sahel region is being decoupled. The interannual variability of these two processes was investigated and this variability related to seasonal rainfall fluctuations. A modified Barnes objective analysis scheme was developed which uses an eliptic scan pattern and a 3-pass iteration of the difference fields.

Environmental controls over carbon dioxide and water vapor exchange of terrestrial vegetation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

B. E. Law; E. Falgeb; L. Guc

2002-12-02

The objective of this research was to compare seasonal and annual estimates of CO2 and water vapor exchange across sites in forests, grasslands, crops, and tundra that are part of an international network called FLUXNET, and to investigating the responses of vegetation to environmental variables. FLUXNETs goals are to understand the mechanisms controlling the exchanges of CO2, water vapor and energy across a spectrum of time and space scales, and to provide information for modeling of carbon and water cycling across regions and the globe. At a subset of sites, net carbon uptake (net ecosystem exchange, the net of photosynthesismore » and respiration) was greater under diffuse than under direct radiation conditions, perhaps because of a more efficient distribution of non-saturating light conditions for photosynthesis, lower vapor pressure deficit limitation to photosynthesis, and lower respiration associated with reduced temperature. The slope of the relation between monthly gross ecosystem production and evapotranspiration was similar between biomes, except for tundra vegetation, showing a strong linkage between carbon gain and water loss integrated over the year (slopes=3.4 g CO2/kg H2O for grasslands, 3.2 for deciduous broadleaf forests, 3.1 for crops, 2.4 for evergreen conifers, and 1.5 for tundra vegetation). The ratio of annual ecosystem respiration to gross photosynthesis averaged 0.83, with lower values for grasslands, presumably because of less investment in respiring plant tissue compared with forests. Ecosystem respiration was weakly correlated with mean annual temperature across biomes, in spite of within site sensitivity over shorter temporal scales. Mean annual temperature and site water balance explained much of the variation in gross photosynthesis. Water availability limits leaf area index over the long-term, and inter-annual climate variability can limit carbon uptake below the potential of the leaf area present.« less

Variability of Extreme Precipitation Events in Tijuana, Mexico During ENSO Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavazos, T.; Rivas, D.

2007-05-01

We present the variability of daily precipitation extremes (top 10 percecnt) in Tijuana, Mexico during 1950-2000. Interannual rainfall variability is significantly modulated by El Nino/Southern Oscillation. The interannual precipitation variability exhibits a large change with a relatively wet period and more variability during 1976- 2000. The wettest years and the largest frequency of daily extremes occurred after 1976-1977, with 6 out of 8 wet years characterized by El Nino episodes and 2 by neutral conditions. However, more than half of the daily extremes during 1950-2000 occurred in non-ENSO years, evidencing that neutral conditions also contribute significantly to extreme climatic variability in the region. Extreme events that occur in neutral (strong El Nino) conditions are associated with a pineapple express and a neutral PNA (negative TNH) teleconnection pattern that links an anomalous tropical convective forcing west (east) of the date line with a strong subtropical jet over the study area. At regional scale, both types of extremes are characterized by a trough in the subtropical jet over California/Baja California, which is further intensified by thermal interaction with an anomalous warm California Current off Baja California, low-level moisture advection from the subtropical warm sea-surface region, intense convective activity over the study area and extreme rainfall from southern California to Baja California.

NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project: A Multi-Component Analysis System for Carbon-Cycle Research and Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pawson, S.; Gunson, M.; Potter, C.; Jucks, K.

2012-01-01

The importance of greenhouse gas increases for climate motivates NASA s observing strategy for CO2 from space, including the forthcoming Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) mission. Carbon cycle monitoring, including attribution of atmospheric concentrations to regional emissions and uptake, requires a robust modeling and analysis infrastructure to optimally extract information from the observations. NASA's Carbon-Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project (FPP) is a prototype for such analysis, combining a set of unique tools to facilitate analysis of atmospheric CO2 along with fluxes between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere or ocean. NASA's analysis system is unique, in that it combines information and expertise from the land, oceanic, and atmospheric branches of the carbon cycle and includes some estimates of uncertainty. Numerous existing space-based missions provide information of relevance to the carbon cycle. This study describes the components of the FPP framework, assessing the realism of computed fluxes, thus providing the basis for research and monitoring applications. Fluxes are computed using data-constrained terrestrial biosphere models and physical ocean models, driven by atmospheric observations and assimilating ocean-color information. Use of two estimates provides a measure of uncertainty in the fluxes. Along with inventories of other emissions, these data-derived fluxes are used in transport models to assess their consistency with atmospheric CO2 observations. Closure is achieved by using a four-dimensional data assimilation (inverse) approach that adjusts the terrestrial biosphere fluxes to make them consistent with the atmospheric CO2 observations. Results will be shown, illustrating the year-to-year variations in land biospheric and oceanic fluxes computed in the FPP. The signals of these surface-flux variations on atmospheric CO2 will be isolated using forward modeling tools, which also incorporate estimates of transport error. The results will be discussed in the context of interannual variability of observed atmospheric CO2 distributions.

Multi-tissue analyses reveal limited inter-annual and seasonal variation in mercury exposure in an Antarctic penguin community.

PubMed

Brasso, Rebecka L; Polito, Michael J; Emslie, Steven D

2014-10-01

Inter-annual variation in tissue mercury concentrations in birds can result from annual changes in the bioavailability of mercury or shifts in dietary composition and/or trophic level. We investigated potential annual variability in mercury dynamics in the Antarctic marine food web using Pygoscelis penguins as biomonitors. Eggshell membrane, chick down, and adult feathers were collected from three species of sympatrically breeding Pygoscelis penguins during the austral summers of 2006/2007-2010/2011. To evaluate the hypothesis that mercury concentrations in penguins exhibit significant inter-annual variation and to determine the potential source of such variation (dietary or environmental), we compared tissue mercury concentrations with trophic levels as indicated by δ(15)N values from all species and tissues. Overall, no inter-annual variation in mercury was observed in adult feathers suggesting that mercury exposure, on an annual scale, was consistent for Pygoscelis penguins. However, when examining tissues that reflected more discrete time periods (chick down and eggshell membrane) relative to adult feathers, we found some evidence of inter-annual variation in mercury exposure during penguins' pre-breeding and chick rearing periods. Evidence of inter-annual variation in penguin trophic level was also limited suggesting that foraging ecology and environmental factors related to the bioavailability of mercury may provide more explanatory power for mercury exposure compared to trophic level alone. Even so, the variable strength of relationships observed between trophic level and tissue mercury concentrations across and within Pygoscelis penguin species suggest that caution is required when selecting appropriate species and tissue combinations for environmental biomonitoring studies in Antarctica.

Agricultural green revolution as a driver of increasing atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zeng, Ning; Zhao, Fang; Collatz, George

The atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) record displays a prominent seasonal cycle that arises mainly from changes in vegetation growth and the corresponding CO2 uptake during the boreal spring and summer growing seasons and CO2 release during the autumn and winter seasons. The CO2 seasonal amplitude has increased over the past five decades, suggesting an increase in Northern Hemisphere biospheric activity. It has been proposed that vegetation growth may have been stimulated by higher concentrations of CO2 as well as by warming in recent decades, but such mechanisms have been unable to explain the full range and magnitude of the observedmore » increase in CO2 seasonal amplitude. Here we suggest that the intensification of agriculture (the Green Revolution, in which much greater crop yield per unit area was achieved by hybridization, irrigation and fertilization) during the past five decades is a driver of changes in the seasonal characteristics of the global carbon cycle. Our analysis of CO2 data and atmospheric inversions shows a robust 15 per cent long-term increase in CO2 seasonal amplitude from 1961 to 2010, punctuated by large decadal and interannual variations. Using a terrestrial carbon cycle model that takes into account high-yield cultivars, fertilizer use and irrigation, we find that the long-term increase in CO2 seasonal amplitude arises from two major regions: the mid-latitude cropland between 256N and 606N and the high-latitude natural vegetation between 506N and 706 N. The long-term trend of seasonal amplitude increase is 0.311 ± 0.027 percent per year, of which sensitivity experiments attribute 45, 29 and 26 per cent to land-use change, climate variability and change, and increased productivity due to CO2 fertilization, respectively. Vegetation growth was earlier by one to two weeks, as measured by the mid-point of vegetation carbon uptake, and took up 0.5 petagrams more carbon in July, the height of the growing season, during 2001–2010 than in 1961–1970, suggesting that human land use and management contribute to seasonal changes in the CO2 exchange between the biosphere and the atmosphere.« less

Inter-annual variability and trend detection of urban CO2, CH4 and CO emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauvaux, T.; Deng, A.; Gurney, K. R.; Nathan, B.; Ye, X.; Oda, T.; Karion, A.; Hardesty, M.; Harvey, R. M.; Richardson, S.; Whetstone, J. R.; Hutyra, L.; Davis, K. J.; Brewer, A.; Gaudet, B. J.; Turnbull, J. C.; Sweeney, C.; Shepson, P. B.; Miles, N.; Bonin, T.; Wu, K.; Balashov, N. V.

2017-12-01

The Indianapolis Flux (INFLUX) Experiment has conducted an unprecedented volume of atmospheric greenhouse gas measurements across the Indianapolis metropolitan area from aircraft, remote-sensing, and tower-based observational platforms. Assimilated in a high-resolution urban inversion system, atmospheric data provide an independent constraint to existing emission products, directly supporting the integration of economic data into urban emission systems. We present here the first multi-year assessment of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions from anthropogenic activities in comparison to multiple bottom-up emission products. Biogenic CO2 fluxes are quantified using an optimized biogeochemical model at high resolution, further refined within the atmospheric inversion system. We also present the first sector-based inversion by jointly assimilating CO2 and CO mixing ratios to quantify the dominant sectors of emissions over the entire period (2012-2015). The detected trend in CO2 emissions over 2012-2015 from both bottom-up emission products and tower-based inversions agree within a few percent, with a decline in city emissions over the 3-year time period. Major changes occur at the primary power plant, suggesting a decrease in energy production within the city limits. The joint assimilation of CO2 and CO mixing ratios confirms the absence of trends in other sectors. However, top-down and bottom-up approaches tend to disagree annually, with a decline in urban emissions suggested by atmospheric data in 2014 that is several months earlier than is observed in the bottom-up products. Concerning CH4 emissions, the inversion shows a decrease since mid-2014 which may be due to lower landfill emissions or lower energy consumption (from coal and natural gas). This first demonstration of a high-accuracy long-term greenhouse gas measurement network merged with a high-resolution bottom-up information system highlights the potential for informing and supporting policy makers on the successful implementation of emission reduction targets. We show here how the combination of information sources supports the evaluation of mitigation policies and helps development of understanding regarding the mechanisms driving emission trends at the level of economical sectors.

On the Impact of Sea Level Fingerprints on the Estimation of the Meridional Geostrophic Transport in the Atlantic Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, C. W.; Velicogna, I.

2017-12-01

The mid-ocean geostrophic transport accounts for more than half of the seasonal and inter-annual variabilities in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) based on the in-situ measurement from RAPID MOC/MOCHA array since 2004. Here, we demonstrate that the mid-ocean geostrophic transport estimates derived from ocean bottom pressure (OBP) are affected by the sea level fingerprint (SLF), which is a variation of the equi-geopotential height (relative sea level) due to rapid mass unloading of the entire Earth system and in particular from glaciers and ice sheets. This potential height change, although it alters the OBP, should not be included in the derivation of the mid-ocean geostrophic transport. This "pseudo" geostrophic-transport due to the SLF is in-phase with the seasonal and interannual signal in the upper mid-ocean geostrophic transport. The east-west SLF gradient across the Atlantic basin could be mistaken as a north-south geostrophic transport that increases by 54% of its seasonal variability and by 20% of its inter-annual variability. This study demonstrates for the first time the importance of this pseudo transport in both the annual and interannual signals by comparing the SLF with in-situ observation from RAPID MOC/MOCHA array. The pseudo transport needs to be taken into account if OBP measurements and remote sensing are used to derive mid-ocean geostrophic transport.

Coral-inferred Variability of Upstream Kuroshio Current from 1953-2004 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Yi, L.; Shen, C. C.; Hsin, Y. C.

2016-12-01

The Kuroshio Current (KC), one of the most important western boundary currents in the North Pacific Ocean, strongly impacts regional climate in East Asia and upper-ocean thermal structure. However, the responses of KC to regional and remote climate forcing are poorly understood owing to lacking of long-term KC observations. Here, we present a sea surface temperature (SST) record from 1953 to 2004 AD derived from monthly skeletal δ18O data of a living coral Porites core, drilled in Nanwan, southern Taiwan (22°N, 121°E), located on the western front of the Upstream KC. The increased/reduced Kuroshio transport would generate stronger/weaker upwelling in Southern Taiwan, which can cause lower/higher SST. Agreement between dynamics of interannual coral δ18O and modern KC data shows that the regional coral δ18O can be used as a promising proxy for Upstream KC intensity. The KC-induced SST anomaly record reveals prominent interannual and decadal variability predominantly controlled by the bifurcation latitude of North Equatorial Current. We also find that the reconstructed KC intensity at east of Taiwan and south of Japan have nearly simultaneous interannual changes, suggesting the same dominant forcing(s) for the entire KC system. Additional work is needed to understand the KC system with respect to the interannual to decadal climate variability and the influences of global warming.

Dominance of ENSO-Like Variability in Controlling Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Fluxes in the Satellite Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.; Miller, T. L.; Bosilovich, M. G.

2008-01-01

Ocean surface turbulent and radiative fluxes are critical links in the climate system since they mediate energy exchange between the two fluid systems (ocean and atmosphere) whose combined heat transport determines the basic character of Earth's climate. Moreover, interannual to decadal climate variability depends crucially on the nature of these exchange processes. For example, addressing the question of the degree to which the global hydrologic cycle is changing depends on our ability to observe and model these fluxes accurately. In this work we investigate the interannual to decadal variation of fluxes over the global tropics, especially the tropical oceans. Recent versions of satellite-derived fresh water flux estimates as well as some reanalyses (e.g. products from Remote Sensing Systems, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, and Global Precipitation Climatology Project) suggest that increases in evaporation and precipitation over the past 20 years exceed those expected on the basis of climate model projected responses to greenhouse gas forcing. At the same time, it is well known that E1 Nino / Southern Oscillation behavior in the Pacific exhibits significant variability at scales longer than interannual. We examine here the degree to which surface fluxes attending these interannual to decadal fluctuations are related to ENSO. We examine consistency between these data sets and explore relationships between SST variations, flux changes and modulation of tropical Walker and Hadley circulations.

Spatial variability of Chinook salmon spawning distribution and habitat preferences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cram, Jeremy M.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Klett, Ryan S.; Pess, George R.; May, Darran; Pearsons, Todd N.; Dittman, Andrew H.

2017-01-01

We investigated physical habitat conditions associated with the spawning sites of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and the interannual consistency of spawning distribution across multiple spatial scales using a combination of spatially continuous and discrete sampling methods. We conducted a census of aquatic habitat in 76 km of the upper main-stem Yakima River in Washington and evaluated spawning site distribution using redd survey data from 2004 to 2008. Interannual reoccupation of spawning areas was high, ranging from an average Pearson’s correlation of 0.62 to 0.98 in channel subunits and 10-km reaches, respectively. Annual variance in the interannual correlation of spawning distribution was highest in channel units and subunits, but it was low at reach scales. In 13 of 15 models developed for individual years (2004–2008) and reach lengths (800 m, 3 km, 6 km), stream power and depth were the primary predictors of redd abundance. Multiple channels and overhead cover were patchy but were important secondary and tertiary predictors of reach-scale spawning site selection. Within channel units and subunits, pool tails and thermal variability, which may be associated with hyporheic exchange, were important predictors of spawning. We identified spawning habitat preferences within reaches and channel units that are relevant for salmonid habitat restoration planning. We also identified a threshold (i.e., 2-km reaches) beyond which interannual spawning distribution was markedly consistent, which may be informative for prioritizing habitat restoration or conservation. Management actions may be improved through enhanced understanding of spawning habitat preferences and the consistency with which Chinook Salmon reoccupy spawning areas at different spatial scales.

Evaluating climate variability and management impacts on carbon dynamics of a temperate forest using a variety of techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arain, M. A.

2015-12-01

Climate variability, extreme weather events, forest age and management history impacts carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. A variety of measurement techniques such as eddy covariance, dendrochronology, automatic soil CO2 chambers and remote sensing are employed fully understand forest carbon dynamics. Here, we present carbon flux measurements from 2003-2014 in a 76-year old managed temperate pine ((-Pinus strobus L.) forest, near Lake Erie in southern Ontario, Canada. Forest was partially thinned (30% tree harvested) in 1983 and 2012. The thinning in 2012 did not significantly impact carbon fluxes as post-thinning fluxes were within the range of inter-annual variability. Mean annual post-thinning (2012-2104) gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) measure by the eddy covariance technique was 1518 ± 78 g C m-2 year-1 as compared to pre-thinning (2003-2011) GEP of 1384 ± 121 g C m-2·year-1. Over the same period, mean post-thinning net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was 185 ± 75 g C m-2 year-1 as compared to post-thinning NEP of 180 ± 70 g C m-2 year-1, indicating that pre-thinning NEP was not significantly different than post-thinning NEP. Only post-thinning mean annual ecosystem respiration (Re; 1322 ± 54 g C m-2 year-1) was higher than pre-thinning Re (1195 ± 101 g C m-2 year-1). Soil CO2 efflux measurements showed similar trends. We also evaluated the impacts of climate variability and management regime on the full life cycle of the forest using annual radial tree-ring growths from 15 trees and compared them with historical climate (temperature and precipitation) data. While the annual growth rates displayed weak correlation with long-term climatic records, the growth was generally reduced during years with extreme drought (-36% of mean annual precipitation) and extreme temperature variability (±0.6 - 1.0°C). Overall, forest was more sensitive to management regime than climate variability. It showed higher growth stress during low light condition after crown closure. When partial thinning was introduced in 1983, it responded slowly and took about 5 to 7 years to show measureable increase in its growth, despite favorable climatic conditions. This study will help to advance our understanding of carbon dynamic of forest ecosystems.