Defining and Measuring Coastal Vulnerability and Resilience to Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M. K.; Hoagland, P.

2014-12-01

Accounting for an estimated 23 percent of the world's population, coastal communities face many types of natural hazards. In particular, they may be vulnerable to the effects of tropical cyclones, flooding due to tsunamis or storm surges, erosion, saltwater intrusion, and subsidence. These coastal hazards are further exacerbated by population growth and climate change. There is a lack of consensus in the literature about what constitutes vulnerability (negative impacts) and resilience (recovery from negative impacts) and how to measure these phenomena. While some important work has focused on the long-term effects of coastal hazards on economic growth, little has been done to understand, in quantitative terms, the extent to which coastal communities may be vulnerable to such hazards and, if so, whether they can be resilient. We surveyed nine indicators of human well-being in order to determine their potential suitability as measures of coastal vulnerability or resilience. Some measures, such as the Gross Domestic Product, the Human Development Index, and the Gini coefficient, comprise economic or distributional indicators of human welfare; others, such as the Social Vulnerability Index, are more complex and difficult to interpret. We selected per capita personal income as the most viable indicator, due largely to its simplicity and its availability over several decades. We used it to examine human community vulnerability and resilience to a specific coastal hazard—significant storm surges from major coastal hurricanes—in several US coastal metropolitan areas. We compiled data on per capita personal income from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis for 15 to 20 years prior and subsequent to four major hurricanes: Hugo, which hit the Charleston, South Carolina, metropolitan area in 1989; Bob, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, in 1991; Andrew, Miami, Florida, in 1992; and Opal, Pensacola, Florida, in 1995. Intervention analysis using linear regression suggests that these coastal areas exhibited the full range of possible combinations of vulnerability and resilience.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO) to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

2005-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Dry Tortugas National Park in Florida. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each input variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO) consists of relatively stable to washover-dominated portions of carbonate beach and man-made fortification. The areas within Dry Tortugas that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest rates of shoreline erosion and the highest wave energy.

Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of Padre Island National Seashore (PAIS) to Sea-Level Rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress; Beavers, Rebecca S.

2004-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Padre Island National Seashore in Texas. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Padre Island National Seashore consists of stable to washover dominated portions of barrier beach backed by wetland, marsh, tidal flat, or grassland. The areas within Padre that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest occurrence of overwash and the highest rates of shoreline change.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Theiler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

2005-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) in North Carolina. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value was calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Cape Hatteras National Seashore consists of stable and washover dominated segments of barrier beach backed by wetland and marsh. The areas within Cape Hatteras that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest occurrence of overwash and the highest rates of shoreline change.

Submergence Vulnerability Index development and application to Coastwide Reference Monitoring System Sites and Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection and Restoration Act projects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stagg, Camille L.; Sharp, Leigh A.; McGinnis, Thomas E.; Snedden, Gregg A.

2013-01-01

Since its implementation in 2003, the Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) in Louisiana has facilitated the creation of a comprehensive dataset that includes, but is not limited to, vegetation, hydrologic, and soil metrics on a coastwide scale. The primary impetus for this data collection is to assess land management activities, including restoration efforts, across the coast. The aim of the CRMS analytical team is to provide a method to synthesize this data to enable multiscaled evaluations of activities in Louisiana’s coastal wetlands. Several indices have been developed to facilitate data synthesis and interpretation, including a Floristic Quality Index, a Hydrologic Index, and a Landscape Index. This document details the development of the Submergence Vulnerability Index, which incorporates sediment-elevation data as well as hydrologic data to determine the vulnerability of a wetland based on its ability to keep pace with sea-level rise. The objective of this document is to provide Federal and State sponsors, project managers, planners, landowners, data users, and the rest of the coastal restoration community with the following: (1) data collection and model development methods for the sediment-elevation response variables, and (2) a description of how these response variables will be used to evaluate CWPPRA project and program effectiveness.

Coastal vulnerability: climate change and natural hazards perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romieu, E.; Vinchon, C.

2009-04-01

Introduction Studying coastal zones as a territorial concept (Integrated coastal zone management) is an essential issue for managers, as they have to consider many different topics (natural hazards, resources management, tourism, climate change…). The recent approach in terms of "coastal vulnerability" studies (since the 90's) is the main tool used nowadays to help them in evaluating impacts of natural hazards on coastal zones, specially considering climate change. This present communication aims to highlight the difficulties in integrating this concept in risk analysis as it is usually practiced in natural hazards sciences. 1) Coastal vulnerability as a recent issue The concept of coastal vulnerability mainly appears in the International panel on climate change works of 1992 (IPCC. 2001), where it is presented as essential for climate change adaptation. The concept has been defined by a common methodology which proposes the assessment of seven indicators, in regards to a sea level rise of 1m in 2100: people affected, people at risk, capital value at loss, land at loss, wetland at loss, potential adaptation costs, people at risk assuming this adaptation. Many national assessments have been implemented (Nicholls, et al. 1995) and a global assessment was proposed for three indicators (Nicholls, et al. 1999). The DINAS-Coast project reuses this methodology to produce the DIVA-tool for coastal managers (Vafeidis, et al. 2004). Besides, many other methodologies for national or regional coastal vulnerability assessments have been developed (review by (UNFCCC. 2008). The use of aggregated vulnerability indicators (including geomorphology, hydrodynamics, climate change…) is widespread: the USGS coastal vulnerability index is used worldwide and was completed by a social vulnerability index (Boruff, et al. 2005). Those index-based methods propose a vulnerability mapping which visualise indicators of erosion, submersion and/or socio economic sensibility in coastal zones. This concept is a great tool for policy makers to help managing their action and taking into account climate change (McFadden, et al. 2006). However, in those approaches, vulnerability is the output itself (cost of effective impacts, geomorphologic impacts…), but is not integrated it in a risk analysis. Furthermore, those studies emerged from a climatic perspective, which leads to consider climate change as a hazard or pressure whereas risk studies commonly consider hazards such as erosion and flooding, where climate change modifies the drivers of the hazard. 2) The natural hazards and socio economic perspectives In order to reduce impacts of natural hazards, decision makers need a complete risk assessment (probability of losses). Past studies on natural risks (landslide, earthquake...) highlighted the pertinence of defining risk as a combination of : (1)hazard occurrence and intensity, (2) exposition and (3)vulnerability of assets and population to this hazard (e.g. Douglas. 2007, Sarewitz, et al. 2003). Following the Renn and Klinke risk assessment frame, high uncertainties associated with coastal risks considering climatic and anthropic change highlights the importance of working on that concept of "vulnerability" (Klinke and Renn. 2002). Past studies on vulnerability assessment showed a frequently mentioned gap between "impact based" and "human based" points of view. It is nowadays a great issue for natural risk sciences. Many research efforts in FP7 projects such as MOVE and ENSURE focus on integrating the different dimensions of vulnerability (Turner, et al. 2003, Birkmann. 2006). Coastal risk studies highlight another issue of concern. We previously detailed the different use of the term "vulnerability" in the coastal context, quite different of the "natural risk's" use. Interaction of social, economic and physical sciences is considered within two french research projects (Vulsaco, Miseeva), in order to identify the vulnerability of a system to flooding or erosion (i.e. its characteristics that create potential harm), and integrate them in a risk assessment. Global change is considered by modifications of hazard, anthropogenic pressure and exposition, in order to point out possible modification of vulnerabilities. 3) Learning from both perspectives Coastal vulnerability in its "end in itself" and climate change dimension is a widespread tool for decision makers but it can be inadequate when vulnerability is a component of risk. This is mainly due to the consideration of climate change as a "hazard", so that coastal vulnerability is seen as the possible adverse impacts of climate change. As a matter of fact, this concept is clearly well considered by managers, who feel deeply concerned by climate change. However, coastal risk managers would gain in considering climate change more like a driver able to modify existing hazards than like the pressure in itself. Using this concept could lead to new perspectives of coastal risk mitigation for decision makers (social vulnerability, risk perception…), learning from other disciplines and sciences thanks to research projects such as MOVE (FP7). Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the BRGM coastal team for rich discussions and fruitful collaborations in coastal vulnerability studies, more specially Déborah Idier for animating the Vulsaco project and Manuel Garcin for his work on tsunamis in Sri Lanka. They are also grateful to the MISEEVA and MOVE teams, which are doing some great trans-disciplinary work. References Birkmann, J., 2006. Measuring vulnerability to Natural Hazards : towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University Press. Boruff, B. J., Emrich, C., Cutter, S. L., 2005. Erosion hazard vulnerability of US coastal counties. Journal of Coastal Research. 21, 932-942. Douglas, J., 2007. Physical vulnerability modelling in natural hazard risk assessment. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 7, 283-288. IPCC, 2001. Climate change 2001 : synthesis report. A contribution of working groups I, II and III to the Third Assesment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Klinke, A. and Renn, O., 2002. A new approach to risk evaluation and management : risk based, precaution based and discourse based strategies. Risk Analysis. 22, 1071-1094. McFadden, L., Nicholls, R.J., Penning-Rowsell, E. (Eds.), 2006. Managing coastal vulnerability. Elsevier Science. Nicholls, R. J., Hoozemans, F. M. J., Marchand, M., 1999. Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses. Global Environmental Change, Part A: Human and Policy Dimensions. 9, S69-S87. Nicholls, R. J., Leatherman, S. P., Volonte, C. R., 1995. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise; qualitative and quantitative assessments; Potential impacts of accelerated sea-level rise on developing countries. Journal of Coastal Research. Special issue 14, 26-43. Sarewitz, D., Pielke, R., Keykhah, M., 2003. Vulnerability and Risk: Some Thoughts from a Political and Policy Perspective. Risk Analysis. 23, 805-810. Turner, B. L.,II, Kasperson, R. E., Matson, P. A., McCarthy, J. J., Corell, R. W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J. X., Luers, A., Martello, M. L., Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A., Schiller, A., 2003. A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA. 100, 8074-8079. UNFCCC, 2008. Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. Vafeidis, A., Nicholls, R., McFadden, L., 2004. Developing a database for global vulnerability analysis of coastal zones: The DINAS-COAST project and the DIVA tool.

Risk assessment for marine spills along European coastlines.

PubMed

Fernández-Macho, Javier

2016-12-15

A marine-spill risk index is proposed to measure and compare the relative vulnerability of coastal regions to marine spills in European waters. It is applied to 301 spills in European waters between 1970 and 2014 for 429 Eurostat territorial units and 156 regions in Europe's coasts. The results show a high heterogeneity among European coastal regions with areas, predominantly on the Atlantic coast, with high marine-spill risks. In particular, UK coasts are markedly affected as there are only five non-British coastal territories within the first 25 territorial units most at risk from marine spills. Across countries, European Atlantic countries face highest risks versus coastal countries on other European waters that are relatively safer. The index also shows a tendency of sea currents to have positive dispersal effects leading to smaller risks rather than otherwise. The index may help to design protection policies and reduce the vulnerability of sensitive resources. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating socio-economic and infrastructural dimension to reveal hazard vulnerability of coastal districts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazumdar, Jublee; Paul, Saikat

2015-04-01

Losses of life and property due to natural hazards have intensified in the past decade, motivating an alteration of disaster management away from simple post event resettlement and rehabilitation. The degree of exposure to hazard for a homogeneous population is not entirely reliant upon nearness to the source of hazard event. Socio-economic factors and infrastructural capability play an important role in determining the vulnerability of a place. This study investigates the vulnerability of eastern coastal states of India from tropical cyclones. The record of past hundred years shows that the physical vulnerability of eastern coastal states is four times as compared to the western coastal states in terms of frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Nevertheless, these physical factors played an imperative role in determining the vulnerability of eastern coast. However, the socio-economic and infrastructural factors influence the risk of exposure exponentially. Inclusion of these indicators would provide better insight regarding the preparedness and resilience of settlements to hazard events. In this regard, the present study is an effort to develop an Integrated Vulnerability Model (IVM) based on socio-economic and infrastructural factors for the districts of eastern coastal states of India. A method is proposed for quantifying the socio-economic and infrastructural vulnerability to tropical cyclone in these districts. The variables included in the study are extracted from Census of India, 2011 at district level administrative unit. In the analysis, a large number of variables are reduced to a smaller number of factors by using principal component analysis that represents the socio-economic and infrastructure vulnerability to tropical cyclone. Subsequently, the factor scores in socio-economic Vulnerability Index (SeVI) and Infrastructure Vulnerability Index (InVI) are standardized from 0 to 1, indicating the range from low to high vulnerability. The factor scores are then mapped for spatial analysis. Utilizing SeVI and InVI, the highly vulnerable districts are demonstrated that are likely to face significant challenges in coping with tropical cyclone and require strategies to address the various aspects of socio-economic and infrastructural vulnerability. Moreover, this model can be incorporated not only for multi-level governance but also to integrate it with the real-time weather forecasts to identify the predictive areas of vulnerability.

Assessing Hazard Vulnerability, Habitat Conservation, and Restoration for the Enhancement of Mainland China's Coastal Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sajjad, Muhammad; Li, Yangfan; Tang, Zhenghong; Cao, Ling; Liu, Xiaoping

2018-03-01

Worldwide, humans are facing high risks from natural hazards, especially in coastal regions with high population densities. Rising sea levels due to global warming are making coastal communities' infrastructure vulnerable to natural disasters. The present study aims to provide a coupling approach of vulnerability and resilience through restoration and conservation of lost or degraded coastal natural habitats to reclamation under different climate change scenarios. The integrated valuation of ecosystems and tradeoffs model is used to assess the current and future vulnerability of coastal communities. The model employed is based on seven different biogeophysical variables to calculate a natural hazard index and to highlight the criticality of the restoration of natural habitats. The results show that roughly 25% of the coastline and more than 5 million residents are in highly vulnerable coastal areas of mainland China, and these numbers are expected to double by 2100. Our study suggests that restoration and conservation in recently reclaimed areas have the potential to reduce this vulnerability by 45%. Hence, natural habitats have proved to be a great defense against coastal hazards and should be prioritized in coastal planning and development. The findings confirm that natural habitats are critical for coastal resilience and can act as a recovery force of coastal functionality loss. Therefore, we recommend that the Chinese government prioritizes restoration (where possible) and conservation of the remaining habitats for the sake of coastal resilience to prevent natural hazards from escalating into disasters.

Mapping of coastal aquifer vulnerable zone in the south west coast of Kanyakumari, South India, using GIS-based DRASTIC model.

PubMed

Kaliraj, S; Chandrasekar, N; Peter, T Simon; Selvakumar, S; Magesh, N S

2015-01-01

The south west coast of Kanyakumari district in Tamil Nadu, India, is significantly affected by seawater intrusion and diffusion of pollutants into the aquifers due to unregulated beach placer mining and other anthropogenic activities. The present study investigates the vulnerability of the coastal aquifers using Geographic Information System (GIS)-based DRASTIC model. The seven DRASTIC parameters have been analyzed using the statistical equation of this model to demarcate the vulnerable zones for aquifer contamination. The vulnerability index map is prepared from the weighted spatial parameters, and an accounting of total index value ranged from 85 to 213. Based on the categorization of vulnerability classes, the high vulnerable zones are found near the beach placer mining areas between Manavalakurichi and Kodimanal coastal stretches. The aquifers associated with settlements and agricultural lands in the middle-eastern part have experienced high vulnerability due to contaminated water bodies. Similarly, the coastal areas of Thengapattinam and Manakudi estuary and around the South Tamaraikulam have also been falling under high vulnerability condition due to backwater and saltpan. In general, the nearshore region except the placer mining zone and the backwater has a moderately vulnerable condition, and the vulnerability index values range from 149 to180. Significantly, the northern and northeastern uplands and some parts of deposition zones in the middle-south coast have been identified as low to no vulnerable conditions. They are structurally controlled by various geological features such as charnockite, garnet biotite gneiss and granites, and sand dunes, respectively. The aquifer vulnerability assessment has been cross-verified by geochemical indicators such as total dissolved solids (TDS), Cl(-), HCO₃(-), and Cl(-)/HCO₃(-) ratio. The high ranges of TDS (1,842--3,736 mg/l) and Cl(-) (1,412--2,112 mg/l) values are well correlated with the observed high vulnerable zones in the study area. The Cl(-)/HCO₃(-) ratio (7.13 to 12.18) of the high vulnerable zone obviously indicates deterioration of the aquifer contamination. Sensitivity analysis has also been performed to evaluate sensitivity of the individual DRASTIC parameters to aquifer vulnerability. This reveals the net recharge rate and groundwater table depth are becoming more sensitive to aquifer contamination. It is realized that the GIS is an effective platform for aquifer vulnerability mapping with reliable accuracy, and hence, the study is more useful for sustainable water resource management and the aquifer conservation.

Framework for mapping the drivers of coastal vulnerability and spatial decision making for climate-change adaptation: A case study from Maharashtra, India.

PubMed

Krishnan, Pandian; Ananthan, Pachampalayam Shanmugam; Purvaja, Ramachandran; Joyson Joe Jeevamani, Jeyapaul; Amali Infantina, John; Srinivasa Rao, Cherukumalli; Anand, Arur; Mahendra, Ranganalli Somashekharappa; Sekar, Iyyapa; Kareemulla, Kalakada; Biswas, Amit; Kalpana Sastry, Regulagedda; Ramesh, Ramachandran

2018-05-31

The impacts of climate change are of particular concern to the coastal region of tropical countries like India, which are exposed to cyclones, floods, tsunami, seawater intrusion, etc. Climate-change adaptation presupposes comprehensive assessment of vulnerability status. Studies so far relied either on remote sensing-based spatial mapping of physical vulnerability or on certain socio-economic aspects with limited scope for upscaling or replication. The current study is an attempt to develop a holistic and robust framework to assess the vulnerability of coastal India at different levels. We propose and estimate cumulative vulnerability index (CVI) as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, at the village level, using nationally comparable and credible datasets. The exposure index (EI) was determined at the village level by decomposing the spatial multi-hazard maps, while sensitivity (SI) and adaptive capacity indices (ACI) were estimated using 23 indicators, covering social and economic aspects. The indicators were identified through the literature review, expert consultations, opinion survey, and were further validated through statistical tests. The socio-economic vulnerability index (SEVI) was constructed as a function of sensitivity and adaptive capacity for planning grassroot-level interventions and adaptation strategies. The framework was piloted in Sindhudurg, a coastal district in Maharashtra, India. It comprises 317 villages, spread across three taluks viz., Devgad, Malvan and Vengurla. The villages in Sindhudurg were ranked based on this multi-criteria approach. Based on CVI values, 92 villages (30%) in Sindhudurg were identified as highly vulnerable. We propose a decision tool for identifying villages vulnerable to changing climate, based on their level of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in a two-dimensional matrix, thus aiding in planning location-specific interventions. Here, vulnerability indicators are classified and designated as 'drivers' (indicators with significantly high values and intervention priority) and 'buffers' (indicators with low-to-moderate values) at the village level. The framework provides for aggregation or decomposition of CVI and other sub-indices, in order to plan spatial contingency plans and enable swift action for climate adaptation.

Economic vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thatcher, Cindy A.; Brock, John C.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

The northern Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States has been identified as highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, based on a combination of physical and societal factors. Vulnerability of human populations and infrastructure to projected increases in sea level is a critical area of uncertainty for communities in the extremely low-lying and flat northern gulf coastal zone. A rapidly growing population along some parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline is further increasing the potential societal and economic impacts of projected sea-level rise in the region, where observed relative rise rates range from 0.75 to 9.95 mm per year on the Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. A 1-m elevation threshold was chosen as an inclusive designation of the coastal zone vulnerable to relative sea-level rise, because of uncertainty associated with sea-level rise projections. This study applies a Coastal Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) to the northern Gulf of Mexico region, which includes both physical and economic factors that contribute to societal risk of impacts from rising sea level. The economic variables incorporated in the CEVI include human population, urban land cover, economic value of key types of infrastructure, and residential and commercial building values. The variables are standardized and combined to produce a quantitative index value for each 1-km coastal segment, highlighting areas where human populations and the built environment are most at risk. This information can be used by coastal managers as they allocate limited resources for ecosystem restoration, beach nourishment, and coastal-protection infrastructure. The study indicates a large amount of variability in index values along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline, and highlights areas where long-term planning to enhance resiliency is particularly needed.

GIS-based vulnerability assessment to sea level rise of Al Hoceima Bay (Moroccan Mediterranean): towards an integrated coastal zone management (ICZM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khouakhi, A.; Snoussi, M.

2013-12-01

In the context of coastal vulnerability to climate change and human impacts, integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) is an increasingly relevant process for the sustainable development of coastal areas, in which scientific input plays a vital role. In the Mediterranean Basin, projected increases in sea level rise and in the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events pose a major challenge for the management of low-lying coastal ecosystems and human settlements. The bay of Al Hoceima is one of the least studied and largest low-lying coastal areas of the Moroccan Mediterranean coast, and is exposed to the effects of sea level rise and storms. The coast is also a touristic area and one of the most important economic assets in the region. Physical coastal vulnerability assessments, determination of setback lines, and evaluation of coastal aquifer vulnerability to sea level rise are among the principal tools used to help decision makers in such a context. Here we quantified, in the context of sea level rise: (1) the physical vulnerability of the coastline, by developing a standard index methodology based on the five most relevant physical indices for local-scale vulnerability analysis, for a total of 822 50m/50m coastal cells; (2) coastal setback lines, based on shoreline evolutionary trends adjusted to sea level rise scenarios using a digital shoreline Analysis System (DSAS); and (3) the vulnerability to sea water intrusion in the coastal aquifer, using a modified GALDIT index (ground water occurrence, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, depth to groundwater level above the sea; distance from the shore; impact of existing status of sea water intrusion in the area; and thickness of the aquifer), following an integrated GIS approach. We find that 41% of the studied coastline is highly vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise and extreme weather events; 60% of the coastline is in retreat (with rates varying between -2m and -0.2m/y), 30% is in dynamic equilibrium (rates of -0.2 to +0.2m/y), and 10% is gradually prograding (with accretion rates of +0.2 to +0.8m/y). Setback line analysis indicates a potential retreat of the coastline of up to -90m by 2050 in the most vulnerable sectors. We find that the aquifer is subject to a moderate to high risk for at least half of its total area, and that for an assumed sea level rise of 0.5 m, the vulnerable surface area will increase by up to two times. The assessment of coastal erosion under different scenarios of sea level rise showed that, if no action is taken, most of the beaches are likely to disappear from the coupled effects of erosion and inundation. These findings will have direct repercussions for coastal development programs over both the short and long terms. The final results aim to provide coastal managers with tools to help the implementation of ICZM.

Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI): A multidisciplinary risk index for Latin America and the Caribbean.

PubMed

Calil, Juliano; Reguero, Borja G; Zamora, Ana R; Losada, Iñigo J; Méndez, Fernando J

2017-01-01

As the world's population grows to a projected 11.2 billion by 2100, the number of people living in low-lying areas exposed to coastal hazards is projected to increase. Critical infrastructure and valuable assets continue to be placed in vulnerable areas, and in recent years, millions of people have been displaced by natural hazards. Impacts from coastal hazards depend on the number of people, value of assets, and presence of critical resources in harm's way. Risks related to natural hazards are determined by a complex interaction between physical hazards, the vulnerability of a society or social-ecological system and its exposure to such hazards. Moreover, these risks are amplified by challenging socioeconomic dynamics, including poorly planned urban development, income inequality, and poverty. This study employs a combination of machine learning clustering techniques (Self Organizing Maps and K-Means) and a spatial index, to assess coastal risks in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) on a comparative scale. The proposed method meets multiple objectives, including the identification of hotspots and key drivers of coastal risk, and the ability to process large-volume multidimensional and multivariate datasets, effectively reducing sixteen variables related to coastal hazards, geographic exposure, and socioeconomic vulnerability, into a single index. Our results demonstrate that in LAC, more than 500,000 people live in areas where coastal hazards, exposure (of people, assets and ecosystems) and poverty converge, creating the ideal conditions for a perfect storm. Hotspot locations of coastal risk, identified by the proposed Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI), contain more than 300,00 people and include: El Oro, Ecuador; Sinaloa, Mexico; Usulutan, El Salvador; and Chiapas, Mexico. Our results provide important insights into potential adaptation alternatives that could reduce the impacts of future hazards. Effective adaptation options must not only focus on developing coastal defenses, but also on improving practices and policies related to urban development, agricultural land use, and conservation, as well as ameliorating socioeconomic conditions.

Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI): A multidisciplinary risk index for Latin America and the Caribbean

PubMed Central

Reguero, Borja G.; Zamora, Ana R.; Losada, Iñigo J.; Méndez, Fernando J.

2017-01-01

As the world’s population grows to a projected 11.2 billion by 2100, the number of people living in low-lying areas exposed to coastal hazards is projected to increase. Critical infrastructure and valuable assets continue to be placed in vulnerable areas, and in recent years, millions of people have been displaced by natural hazards. Impacts from coastal hazards depend on the number of people, value of assets, and presence of critical resources in harm’s way. Risks related to natural hazards are determined by a complex interaction between physical hazards, the vulnerability of a society or social-ecological system and its exposure to such hazards. Moreover, these risks are amplified by challenging socioeconomic dynamics, including poorly planned urban development, income inequality, and poverty. This study employs a combination of machine learning clustering techniques (Self Organizing Maps and K-Means) and a spatial index, to assess coastal risks in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) on a comparative scale. The proposed method meets multiple objectives, including the identification of hotspots and key drivers of coastal risk, and the ability to process large-volume multidimensional and multivariate datasets, effectively reducing sixteen variables related to coastal hazards, geographic exposure, and socioeconomic vulnerability, into a single index. Our results demonstrate that in LAC, more than 500,000 people live in areas where coastal hazards, exposure (of people, assets and ecosystems) and poverty converge, creating the ideal conditions for a perfect storm. Hotspot locations of coastal risk, identified by the proposed Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI), contain more than 300,00 people and include: El Oro, Ecuador; Sinaloa, Mexico; Usulutan, El Salvador; and Chiapas, Mexico. Our results provide important insights into potential adaptation alternatives that could reduce the impacts of future hazards. Effective adaptation options must not only focus on developing coastal defenses, but also on improving practices and policies related to urban development, agricultural land use, and conservation, as well as ameliorating socioeconomic conditions. PMID:29095841

Global assessment of coastal aquifer state and its vulnerability respect to Sea Water Intrusion. Application to several Mediterranean Coastal Aquifers.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baena, Leticia; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Renau-Pruñonosa, Arianna; Morell, Ignacio

2017-04-01

In this research we propose a method for a global assessment of coastal aquifer state and its vulnerability to Sea Water Intrusion (SWI). It is based on two indices, the MART index, which summarize the global significance of the SWI phenomenon, and the L_GALDIT for a lumped assessment of the vulnerability to SWI. Both of them can be useful as a tool to assess coastal groundwater bodies in risk of not achieving good status in accordance with the Water Framework Directive (WFD, 2000) and to identify possible management alternative to reduce existing impacts. They can be obtained even from a reduced number of data (in the MART case only depend on the geometry and available aquifer state data) with simple calculations, which have been implemented in a general GIS tool that can be easily applied to other case studies. The MART index in an aquifer is related with the total mass of chloride in the aquifer due to sea water intrusion and can be obtained by simple linear operations of volume and concentrations that can be deduced from a schematic conceptual cross-section approach (orthogonal to the shore line) defined to summarize the intrusion volume in the aquifer. At a certain historical time, this representative aquifer cross-section can be defined in a systhematic way from the aquifer geometry, the specific yield, and the hydraulic head and chloride concentration fields that can be deduced from the available information by using appropriate interpolation methods. Following the proposed procedure we will finally obtain a summary of the historical significance of the SWI in an aquifer at different spatial resolution: 3D salinity concentration maps, 2D representative conceptual cross-section of intrusion and the MART lumped significance index. The historical evolution of the MART can be employed to perform a global assessment of the resilience and trends of global significance of the SWI in an aquifer. It can be useful to compare the significance of intrusion problems in different groundwater bodies and temporal periods. Some assumptions and hypothesis assumed in this analysis of the significance of SWI were also applied in a previous research work, the SITE index (Ballesteros et al., 2016). Finally, we have also obtained vulnerability maps to SWI by applying the GALDIT method (Chachadi and Lobo-Ferreria, 2007). As in the analysis of the significance, we propose to apply an analogous procedure to summarize the vulnerability of the aquifer to SWI at different spatial scale: 2D vulnerability maps, 2D representative conceptual cross-section of the vulnerability and a global vulnerability index (L_GALDIT). The historical evolution of the L_GALDIT could be also employed to perform a global assessment of the resilience and trends of the global vulnerability of the SWI in an aquifer. While MART index is calculated using only physical variables, L_GALDIT employs weighted qualitative characteristics based on expert criteria. It can be useful to combine both MART and L_GALDIT indices in order to obtain a general knowledge of SWI in an aquifer. This research has been supported by the CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R (MINECO) project.

Groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping using GIS, modeling and a fuzzy logic tool.

PubMed

Nobre, R C M; Rotunno Filho, O C; Mansur, W J; Nobre, M M M; Cosenza, C A N

2007-12-07

A groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping assessment, based on a source-pathway-receptor approach, is presented for an urban coastal aquifer in northeastern Brazil. A modified version of the DRASTIC methodology was used to map the intrinsic and specific groundwater vulnerability of a 292 km(2) study area. A fuzzy hierarchy methodology was adopted to evaluate the potential contaminant source index, including diffuse and point sources. Numerical modeling was performed for delineation of well capture zones, using MODFLOW and MODPATH. The integration of these elements provided the mechanism to assess groundwater pollution risks and identify areas that must be prioritized in terms of groundwater monitoring and restriction on use. A groundwater quality index based on nitrate and chloride concentrations was calculated, which had a positive correlation with the specific vulnerability index.

Vulnerability Assessment of a Coastal Dune System at São Francisco do Sul Island, Santa Catarina, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alquini, Fernanda; Bertoni, Duccio; Sarti, Giovanni; Ciccarelli, Daniela; Pozzebon, Alessandro; Ferreira de Melo Júnior, João Carlos; Voos Vieira, Celso

2016-10-01

In this paper a Coastal Dune Vulnerability Index (CDVI) has been applied on a beach located in the eastern side of Sao Francisco do Sul Island (Brazil). The aim of this study is to assess the vulnerability of a coastal dune system and to identify the areas that result most sensitive to environmental changes. The CDVI has been applied along six transects traced out on two sectors that have been selected based on dune characteristics: Zone A is characterized by well developed parabolic dunes, whereas Zone B is characterized by transverse dunes. The analysis involved 51 quantitative and qualitative variables, divided into five groups: geomorphological dune system condition, marine influence, Aeolian effect, vegetation condition and human effect. The total CDVI was computed as the unweighted average of the partial vulnerability indices. In summary, the total vulnerability can be classified as medium: the geomorphological factor must be monitored at Grande beach, in particular the blowouts in Zone A and the frontal dune retreat in Zone B. The results of the study confirm that the management of coastal areas might be improved using a tool such as the CDVI, which can be easily applied on a regular basis to take under control the factors that mostly affect the evolution of the site.

Assessment on vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea level rise in the Yangtze Estuary, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, L.; Ge, Z.; Zhang, L.

2013-12-01

The Yangtze Delta in China is vital economic hubs in terms of settlement, industry, agriculture, trade and tourism as well as of great environmental significance. In recent decades, the prospect of climate change, in particular sea level rise and its effects on low lying coastal areas have generated worldwide attention to coastal ecosystems. Coastal wetlands, as important parts of coastal ecosystem, are particularly sensitive to sea level rise. To study the responses of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisites for securing the coastal zone ecosystems. In this study, taking the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary as a case study, the potential impacts of sea-level rise to coastal wetlands habitat were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model. The key indicators, such as the sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, elevation, daily inundation duration of habitat and sedimentation rate, were selected to build a vulnerability assessment system according to the IPCC definition of vulnerability, i.e. the aspects of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation. A quantitatively spatial assessment method on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. The vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the sea level rise rate of the present trend and IPCC A1F1 scenario were performed for three sets of projections of short-term (2030s), mid-term (2050s) and long-term (2100s). The results showed that at the present trend of sea level rise rate of 0.26 cm/a, 92.3 % of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary was in the EVI score of 0 in 2030s, i.e. the impact of sea level rise on habitats/species of coastal wetlands was negligible. While 7.4 % and 0.3 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 1(low vulnerability) and 2 (moderate vulnerability), respectively. In 2050s, 88.8 %, 10.7 % and 0.5 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1 and 2, respectively. In 2100s, 85.7 %, 7.3 % , 2.0 % and 5.0 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1, 2 and 3(high vulnerability), respectively. At the A1F1 scenario of sea level rise rate of 0.59 cm/a, 91.0 %, 8.7 % and 0.3 % of the coastal wetlands in 2030s were in the EVI score of 0, 1 and 2 , respectively. In 2050s, 86.9 %, 10.5 % , 2.4 % and 0.2 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1, 2 and 3, respectively. In 2100s, 82.4 %, 7.1 % , 2.4 % and 8.1 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The spatiotemporal occurrences of vulnerability were mainly where the subsidence rate is relatively higher and the sedimentation rate is lower or even negative. The results from this study indicated that the combined effects of sea level rise, land subsidence, reducing sediment discharge could give rise to the high risk of a considerable decrease or even habitat loss of coastal wetland in the Yangtze Estuary (particularly in 2050s and 2100s). Therefore some mitigation measures should be considered in the future, including management of sedimentation, reducing land subsidence, recreating and extending wetland habitat, and controlling reclamation.

A Bayesian network to predict vulnerability to sea-level rise: data report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert

2011-01-01

During the 21st century, sea-level rise is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, development, and infrastructure. Consequently, there has been an increased focus on developing modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate potential impacts to inform coastal management. This report provides the data that were used to develop and evaluate the performance of a Bayesian network designed to predict long-term shoreline change due to sea-level rise. The data include local rates of relative sea-level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline-change rate compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Vulnerability Index for the U.S. Atlantic coast. In this project, the Bayesian network is used to define relationships among driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal responses. Using this information, the Bayesian network is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline change in response to different future sea-level-rise scenarios.

Measuring Capacity for Resilience among Coastal Counties of the US Northern Gulf of Mexico Region

PubMed Central

Reams, Margaret A.; Lam, Nina S. N.; Baker, Ariele

2016-01-01

Many have voiced concern about the long-term survival of coastal communities in the face of increasingly intense storms and sea level rise. In this study we select indicators of key theoretical concepts from the social-ecological resilience literature, aggregate those indicators into a resilience-capacity index, and calculate an index score for each of the 52 coastal counties of Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Building upon Cutter’s Social Vulnerability Index work [1], we use Factor Analysis to combine 43 variables measuring demographics, social capital, economic resources, local government actions, and environmental conditions within the counties. Then, we map the counties’ scores to show the spatial distribution of resilience capacities. The counties identified as having the highest resilience capacities include the suburban areas near New Orleans, Louisiana and Tampa, Florida, and the growing beach-tourist communities of Alabama and central Florida. Also, we examine whether those counties more active in oil and gas development and production, part of the region’s “energy coast”, have greater capacity for resilience than other counties in the region. Correlation analyses between the resilience-capacity index scores and two measures of oil and gas industry activity (total employment and number of business establishments within five industry categories) yielded no statistically significant associations. By aggregating a range of important contextual variables into a single index, the study demonstrates a useful approach for the more systematic examination and comparison of exposure, vulnerability and capacity for resilience among coastal communities. PMID:27500076

An holistic approach to beach erosion vulnerability assessment.

PubMed

Alexandrakis, George; Poulos, Serafim Ε

2014-08-15

Erosion is a major threat for coasts worldwide, beaches in particular, which constitute one of the most valuable coastal landforms. Vulnerability assessments related to beach erosion may contribute to planning measures to counteract erosion by identifying, quantifying and ranking vulnerability. Herein, we present a new index, the Beach Vulnerability Index (BVI), which combines simplicity in calculations, easily obtainable data and low processing capacity. This approach provides results not only for different beaches, but also for different sectors of the same beach and enables the identification of the relative significance of the processes involved. It functions through the numerical approximation of indicators that correspond to the mechanisms related to the processes that control beach evolution, such as sediment availability, wave climate, beach morhodynamics and sea level change. The BVI is also intended to be used as a managerial tool for beach sustainability, including resilience to climate change impact on beach erosion.

A Brazilian Vulnerability Index Towards Natural Disasters and Climatic Change - Flashfloods and Landslides.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debortoli, N. S.; Camarinha, P. I., Sr.; Marengo, J. A.; Rodrigues, R.

2015-12-01

There are some evidences that hydrological climate extremes events have become more frequent an intense in the last decades due to climatic change. In Brazil, flashfloods and landslides were responsible for 74% of the deaths related to natural disasters in 1991-2010 period. In this sense, climate change could be considered a threat which can further increase these numbers, if actions of adaptation and reducing vulnerability are not taken. To evaluate Brazil's vulnerability hotspots to these disasters, two vulnerability indexes were developed using three sets of variables: (1) climate, with IPCC climate extreme indexes; (2) environmental, including land use, drainage systems, relief map, slope, road density and hydrography variables; (3) socioeconomic, including Gini coefficient, HDI (Human Development Index), housing conditions and poverty-related index. The variables were normalized on a scale between 0 to 1 and related using Map Algebra technique (ArcGIS). As part of the effort to contribute to the elaboration of the Third National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and to contribute to the assessment of impacts on strategic country's issues, simulations at higher resolution were carried out using Eta-20km RCM (Regional Climate Model) nested with two global climate models: HadGEM ES and MIROC 5 (INPE Brazilian National Institute for Space Research). For the baseline period of 1961-1990, the vulnerability indexes were adjusted by an iterative process, which was validated by comparing it to the Brazilian National Disasters Data. The same indexes found at baseline were used to estimate the vulnerability until the end of the XXI century, using the 4.5 and 8.5 IPCC/AR5 RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios. The results indicate a large increase in Brazil's vulnerability to landslides mainly in coastal zone, southern states, high lands of southeast states, and along the Amazon River due to climatic aspects only, not considering other factors such as increase in population size, etc. Flashfloods vulnerability, on the other hand, increases mostly in the south/southeast regions, the northeast coastal zone and parts of the Amazon basin. Funded by: Ministry of Science and Technology of Brazil and the United Nations Development Program in Brazil.

Assessment of Coastal Communities' Vulnerability to Hurricane Surge under Climate Change via Probabilistic Map - A Case Study of the Southwest Coast of Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Shen, S.

2014-12-01

The US coastline, over the past few years, has been overwhelmed by major storms including Hurricane Katrina (2005), Ike (2008), Irene (2011), and Sandy (2012). Supported by a growing and extensive body of evidence, a majority of research agrees hurricane activities have been enhanced due to climate change. However, the precise prediction of hurricane induced inundation remains a challenge. This study proposed a probabilistic inundation map based on a Statistically Modeled Storm Database (SMSD) to assess the probabilistic coastal inundation risk of Southwest Florida for near-future (20 years) scenario considering climate change. This map was processed through a Joint Probability Method with Optimal-Sampling (JPM-OS), developed by Condon and Sheng in 2012, and accompanied by a high resolution storm surge modeling system CH3D-SSMS. The probabilistic inundation map shows a 25.5-31.2% increase in spatially averaged inundation height compared to an inundation map of present-day scenario. To estimate climate change impacts on coastal communities, socioeconomic analyses were conducted using both the SMSD based probabilistic inundation map and the present-day inundation map. Combined with 2010 census data and 2012 parcel data from Florida Geographic Data Library, the differences of economic loss between the near-future and present day scenarios were used to generate an economic exposure map at census block group level to reflect coastal communities' exposure to climate change. The results show that climate change induced inundation increase has significant economic impacts. Moreover, the impacts are not equally distributed among different social groups considering their social vulnerability to hazards. Social vulnerability index at census block group level were obtained from Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute. The demographic and economic variables in the index represent a community's adaptability to hazards. Local Moran's I was calculated to identify the clusters of highly exposed and vulnerable communities. The economic-exposure cluster map was overlapped with social-vulnerability cluster map to identify communities with low adaptive capability but high exposure. The result provides decision makers an intuitive tool to identify most susceptible communities for adaptation.

An index-based method to assess risks of climate-related hazards in coastal zones: The case of Tetouan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satta, Alessio; Snoussi, Maria; Puddu, Manuela; Flayou, Latifa; Hout, Radouane

2016-06-01

The regional risk assessment carried out within the ClimVar & ICZM Project identified the coastal zone of Tetouan as a hotspot of the Mediterranean Moroccan coast and so it was chosen for the application of the Multi-Scale Coastal Risk Index for Local Scale (CRI-LS). The local scale approach provides a useful tool for local coastal planning and management by exploring the effects and the extensions of the hazards and combining hazard, vulnerability and exposure variables in order to identify areas where the risk is relatively high. The coast of Tetouan is one of the coastal areas that have been most rapidly and densely urbanized in Morocco and it is characterized by an erosive shoreline. Local authorities are facing the complex task of balancing development and managing coastal risks, especially coastal erosion and flooding, and then be prepared to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The first phase of the application of the CRI-LS methodology to Tetouan consisted of defining the coastal hazard zone, which results from the overlaying of the erosion hazard zone and the flooding hazard zone. Nineteen variables were chosen to describe the Hazards, Vulnerability and Exposure factors. The scores corresponding to each variable were calculated and the weights assigned through an expert judgement elicitation. The resulting values are hosted in a geographic information system (GIS) platform that enables the individual variables and aggregated risk scores to be color-coded and mapped across the coastal hazard zone. The results indicated that 10% and 27% of investigated littoral fall under respectively very high and high vulnerability because of combination of high erosion rates with high capital land use. The risk map showed that some areas, especially the flood plains of Restinga, Smir and Martil-Alila, with distances over 5 km from the coast, are characterized by high levels of risk due to the low topography of the flood plains and to the high values of exposure. The CRI-LS provides a set of maps that allow identifying areas within the coastal hazard zone with relative higher risk from climate-related hazards. The method can be used to support coastal planning and management process in selecting the most suitable adaptation measures.

Index based regional vulnerability assessment to cyclones hazards of coastal area of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammad, Q. A.; Kervyn, M.; Khan, A. U.

2016-12-01

Cyclone, storm surge, coastal flooding, salinity intrusion, tornado, nor'wester, and thunderstorms are the listed natural hazards in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. Bangladesh was hit by devastating cyclones in 1970, 1991, 2007, 2009, and 2016. Intensity and frequency of natural hazards in the coastal area are likely to increase in future due to climate change. Risk assessment is one of the most important steps of disaster risk reduction. As a climate change victim nation, Bangladesh claims compensation from green climate fund. It also created its own climate funds. It is therefore very important to assess vulnerability of the coast of Bangladesh to natural hazards for efficient allocation of financial investment to support the national risk reduction. This study aims at identifying the spatial variations in factors contributing to vulnerability of the coastal inhabitants of Bangladesh to natural hazards. An exploratory factor analysis method has been used to assess the vulnerability at each local administrative unit. The 141 initially selected 141 socio-economic indicators were reduced to 41 by converting some of them to meaningful widely accepted indicators and removing highly correlated indicators. Principle component analysis further reduced 41 indicators to 13 dimensions which explained 79% of total variation. PCA dimensions show three types of characteristics of the people that may lead people towards vulnerability. They are (a) demographic, education and job opportunities, (b) access to basic needs and facilities, and (c) special needs people. Vulnerability maps of the study area has been prepared by weighted overlay of the dimensions. Study revealed that 29 and 8 percent of total coastal area are very high and high vulnerable to natural hazards respectively. These are distributed along sea boundary and major rivers. Comparison of this spatial distribution with the capacities to face disaster show that highly vulnerable areas are well covered by cyclone shelters but are not the zone with the most resistant building and the most dense road networks. The findings will be helpful for policy makers to initiate, plan and implement short, medium and long term DRR strategies.

Drinking water vulnerability to climate change and alternatives for adaptation in coastal South and South East Asia.

PubMed

Hoque, M A; Scheelbeek, P F D; Vineis, P; Khan, A E; Ahmed, K M; Butler, A P

Drinking water in much of Asia, particularly in coastal and rural settings, is provided by a variety of sources, which are widely distributed and frequently managed at an individual or local community level. Coastal and near-inland drinking water sources in South and South East (SSE) Asia are vulnerable to contamination by seawater, most dramatically from tropical cyclone induced storm surges. This paper assesses spatial vulnerabilities to salinisation of drinking water sources due to meteorological variability and climate change along the (ca. 6000 km) coastline of SSE Asia. The risks of increasing climatic stresses are first considered, and then maps of relative vulnerability along the entire coastline are developed, using data from global scale land surface models, along with an overall vulnerability index. The results show that surface and near-surface drinking water in the coastal areas of the mega-deltas in Vietnam and Bangladesh-India are most vulnerable, putting more than 25 million people at risk of drinking 'saline' water. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this problem, with adverse consequences for health, such as prevalence of hypertension and cardiovascular diseases. There is a need for identifying locations that are most at risk of salinisation in order for policy makers and local officials to implement strategies for reducing these health impacts. To counter the risks associated with these vulnerabilities, possible adaptation measures are also outlined. We conclude that detailed and fine scale vulnerability assessments may become crucial for planning targeted adaptation programmes along these coasts.

Re-plumbing the coast: Untangling the effects of climate change and water management on vulnerability of coastal landscapes to saltwater incursion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattachan, A.; BenDor, T.; Ardón, M.; Bernhardt, E. S.; Wright, J. P.; Emanuel, R. E.

2016-12-01

The Atlantic Coastal Plain of the United States has been altered drastically in the past century to support agriculture, real estate, and recreational activities. In a landscape with minimal hydraulic gradients and potentially large fluctuations in sea level, the effects of introducing artificial drainages (e.g., ditches and canals) on hydrological properties are often drastic and sometimes unpredictable. In this study, we focus on a portion of the outer coastal plain of North Carolina that ranges in elevation between 6 to -5 meters a.m.s.l. To this end, we use a high-resolution, Lidar-derived digital elevation model to study the effects of artificial drainages on landscape elevation, flow accumulation, and drainage density within an 800-km2 study area. Specifically, we use image-processing techniques to filter artificial drainages from the region and compare hydrologically relevant landscape metrics with and without these features. In general, artificial drainages lower land elevation, short-circuit otherwise natural flow paths and lead to increased ( 3 times) drainage density across the landscape. We also calculate a saltwater intrusion vulnerability index (SIVI), with and without canals and ditches, to investigate the contribution of this infrastructure to saltwater intrusion vulnerability in this low-lying coastal region. The SIVI represents the ability of the freshwater to impede the inland migration of saltwater during drought periods or as sea level rises. Our results show that the construction of artificial drainages would in fact lead to an increase in vulnerability to saltwater intrusion and this pattern is consistent across all four major land-cover (wetlands, agriculture, shrub and forest) in our study area. Thus, combined with extant saltwater impacts on freshwater-dependent landscapes across our study area, our findings are immediately relevant to this region and to similar coastal regions worldwide.

Coastal dynamics studies for evaluation of hazard and vulnerability for coastal erosion. case study the town La Bocana, Buenaventura, colombian pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo; Ricaurte-Villota, Constanza

2015-04-01

The analysis of the hazard and vulnerability in coastal areas caused for erosion is based on studies of coastal dynamics since that allows having a better information detail that is useful for decision-making in aspects like prevention, mitigation, disaster reduction and integrated risk management. The Town of La Bocana, located in Buenaventura (Colombian Pacific) was selected to carry out the threat assessment for coastal erosion based on three components: i) magnitude, ii) occurrence and iii) susceptibility. Vulnerability meanwhile, is also composed of three main components for its evaluation: i) exposure ii) fragility and iii) resilience, which in turn are evaluated in 6 dimensions of vulnerability: physical, social, economic, ecological, institutional and cultural. The hazard analysis performed used a semi-quantitative approach, and an index of variables such as type of geomorphological unit, type of beach, exposure of the surfing coast, occurrence, among others. Quantitative data of coastal retreat was measured through the use of DSAS (Digital Shoreline Analysis System) an application of ArcGIS, as well as the development of digital elevation models from the beach and 6 beach profiles strategically located on the coast obtained with GNSS technology. Sediment samples collected from these beaches, medium height and wave direction were used as complementary data. The information was integrated across the coast line into segments of 250 x 250 meters. 4 sectors are part of the coastal area of La Bocana: Pianguita, Vistahermosa, Donwtown and Shangay. 6 vulnerability dimensions units were taken from these population, as well as its density for exposure, wich was analyzed through a multi-array method that include variables such as, land use, population, type of structure, education, basic services, among others, to measure frailty, and their respective indicator of resilience. The hazard analysis results indicate that Vistahermosa is in very high threat, while Donwtown and Pianguita are in a medium hazard. Particularly these two sectors have the mayor population density and the biggest hotel development and services infraestructure; meanwhile Shangay was scored with low hazard because the wave action has no direct impact on it. Vulnerability analysis suggest that the sector of Shangay has a very high vulnerability status because it is a sector that does not have any basic services and have low levels of schooling, meanwhile Downtown, Vistahermosa and Pianguita are in the average of vulnerability. Additionally, it was determined that in recent years the sector of Vista hermosa the erosion rates are up to -xx m yr-1, while in other sectors the regression of the coastline can be associated with local tidal peaks that occur during April and October, while other months of the year are typically for recovery and stability processes.

Multidsciplinary Approaches to Coastal Adaptation - Aplying Machine Learning Techniques to assess coastal risk in Latin America and The Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calil, J.

2016-12-01

The global population, currently at 7.3 billion, is increasing by nearly 230,000 people every day. As the world's population grows to an estimated 11.2 billion by 2100, the number of people living in low elevation areas, exposed to coastal hazards, is continuing to increase. In 2013, 22 million people were displaced by extreme weather events, with 37 events displacing at least 100,000 people each. Losses from natural disasters and disaster risk are determined by a complex interaction between physical hazards and the vulnerability of a society or social-ecological system, and its exposure to such hazards. Impacts from coastal hazards depend on the number of people, value of assets, and presence of critical resources in harm's way. Moreover, coastal risks are amplified by challenging socioeconomic dynamics, including ill-advised urban development, income inequality, and poverty level. Our results demonstrate that in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), more than half a million people live in areas where coastal hazards, exposure (of people, assets and ecosystems), and poverty converge, creating the ideal conditions for a perfect storm. In order to identify the population at greatest risk to coastal hazards in LAC, and in response to a growing demand for multidisciplinary coastal adaptation approaches, this study employs a combination of machine learning clustering techniques (K-Means and Self Organizing Maps), and a spatial index, to assess coastal risks on a comparative scale. Data for more than 13,000 coastal locations in LAC were collected and allocated into three categories: (1) Coastal Hazards (including storm surge, wave energy and El Niño); (2) Geographic Exposure (including population, agriculture, and ecosystems); and (3) Vulnerability (including income inequality, infant mortality rate and malnutrition). This study identified hotspots of coastal vulnerability, the key drivers of coastal risk at each geographic location. Our results provide important insights into potential adaptation alternatives that could reduce the impacts of future coastal hazards. Effective adaptation options must not only focus on developing coastal defenses, but also on improving practices and policies related to urban development, agriculture, and conservation, as well as ameliorate socioeconomic conditions.

Assessing societal vulnerability of U.S. Pacific Northwest communities to storm-induced coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Heather M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ruggerio, Peter; Allan, Jonathan; Corcoran, Patrick

2010-01-01

Progressive increases in storm intensities and extreme wave heights have been documented along the U.S. West Coast. Paired with global sea level rise and the potential for an increase in El Niño occurrences, these trends have substantial implications for the vulnerability of coastal communities to natural coastal hazards. Community vulnerability to hazards is characterized by the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of human-environmental systems that influence potential impacts. To demonstrate how societal vulnerability to coastal hazards varies with both physical and social factors, we compared community exposure and sensitivity to storm-induced coastal change scenarios in Tillamook (Oregon) and Pacific (Washington) Counties. While both are backed by low-lying coastal dunes, communities in these two counties have experienced different shoreline change histories and have chosen to use the adjacent land in different ways. Therefore, community vulnerability varies significantly between the two counties. Identifying the reasons for this variability can help land-use managers make decisions to increase community resilience and reduce vulnerability in spite of a changing climate.

Vulnerability and Risk of Agro-ecosystems Facing Increased Salinity Intrusion in the Mekong Delta, Viet Nam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renaud, F.; Sebesvari, Z.; Nguyen, M. T.; Hagenlocher, M.

2016-12-01

The Vietnamese portion of the Mekong Delta increasingly suffers from salinity intrusion in its freshwater system, as exemplified by the historically high salinity levels recorded during the 2016 dry season. Although this exceptional situation was linked to the El Niño phenomena, many factors contribute to an increasing salinization of coastal areas. Salinity intrusion is a natural process in this tidal area but its extent is increasing and projected to worsen due to increased demand for water, diversion/storage of water flows in the Mekong river and its tributaries, land subsidence linked to groundwater over-abstraction, changes in land use and water management in coastal areas, and sea level rise. The Mekong Delta remains predominantly an agricultural landscape which contributes the majority of the rice, aquaculture, and fruit production of the country. These systems will need to be adapted to increased salinity levels. We will present results from two research projects, DeltAdapt and DELTAS, which were designed to allow understanding of, respectively (1) the main drivers of change of agro-ecosystems in coastal areas of the delta and (2) the relative vulnerabilities and risks deltaic social-ecological systems face with respect to various environmental hazards. We used the Global Delta Vulnerability Index developed within the DELTAS project to characterize the vulnerabilities and risks faced by coastal provinces of the delta with respect to salinity intrusion. The analysis allows us to understand which social, economic, and ecological variables index explain the relative vulnerability of the provinces. In addition, drivers of change (e.g. policy, economic, social, environmental) of coastal agro-ecosystems were systematically analyzed through 80 interviews and 7 focus group discussions in the provinces of Kien Giang and Soc Trang within the DeltAdapt project. This was combined with the analysis of Vietnamese policies to determine which are the important drivers of change in the region and how these contribute (or not) to the adaptation of agro-ecosystems facing increased salinity intrusion. By combining these results, we will point to potential policies that could be considered by various authorities to allow for a greater adaptability of agro-ecosystems in the coastal provinces of the region.

Modeling Coastal Vulnerability through Space and Time

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification and are thus vulnerable to erosion. Urban coastal ecosystems are especially important due to the large populations these limited ecosystems serve. However, few studies have addressed the issue of urban coastal vulnerability at the landscape scale with spatial data that are finely resolved. The purpose of this study was to model and map coastal vulnerability and the role of natural habitats in reducing vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York, in terms of nine coastal vulnerability metrics (relief, wave exposure, geomorphology, natural habitats, exposure, exposure with no habitat, habitat role, erodible shoreline, and surge) under past (1609), current (2015), and future (2080) scenarios using InVEST 3.2.0. We analyzed vulnerability results both spatially and across all time periods, by stakeholder (ownership) and by distance to damage from Hurricane Sandy. We found significant differences in vulnerability metrics between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure. The marsh islands in the center of the bay are currently vulnerable. In the future, these islands will likely be inundated, placing additional areas of the shoreline increasingly at risk. Significant differences in vulnerability exist between stakeholders; the Breezy Point Cooperative and Gateway National Recreation Area had the largest erodible shoreline segments. Significant correlations exist for all vulnerability (exposure/surge) and storm damage combinations except for exposure and distance to artificial debris. Coastal protective features, ranging from storm surge barriers and levees to natural features (e.g. wetlands), have been promoted to decrease future flood risk to communities in coastal areas around the world. Our methods of combining coastal vulnerability results with additional data and across multiple time periods have considerable potential to provide valuable predictions that resource managers can effectively use to identify areas for restoration and protection. PMID:27732674

Modeling Coastal Vulnerability through Space and Time.

PubMed

Hopper, Thomas; Meixler, Marcia S

2016-01-01

Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification and are thus vulnerable to erosion. Urban coastal ecosystems are especially important due to the large populations these limited ecosystems serve. However, few studies have addressed the issue of urban coastal vulnerability at the landscape scale with spatial data that are finely resolved. The purpose of this study was to model and map coastal vulnerability and the role of natural habitats in reducing vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York, in terms of nine coastal vulnerability metrics (relief, wave exposure, geomorphology, natural habitats, exposure, exposure with no habitat, habitat role, erodible shoreline, and surge) under past (1609), current (2015), and future (2080) scenarios using InVEST 3.2.0. We analyzed vulnerability results both spatially and across all time periods, by stakeholder (ownership) and by distance to damage from Hurricane Sandy. We found significant differences in vulnerability metrics between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure. The marsh islands in the center of the bay are currently vulnerable. In the future, these islands will likely be inundated, placing additional areas of the shoreline increasingly at risk. Significant differences in vulnerability exist between stakeholders; the Breezy Point Cooperative and Gateway National Recreation Area had the largest erodible shoreline segments. Significant correlations exist for all vulnerability (exposure/surge) and storm damage combinations except for exposure and distance to artificial debris. Coastal protective features, ranging from storm surge barriers and levees to natural features (e.g. wetlands), have been promoted to decrease future flood risk to communities in coastal areas around the world. Our methods of combining coastal vulnerability results with additional data and across multiple time periods have considerable potential to provide valuable predictions that resource managers can effectively use to identify areas for restoration and protection.

Vulnerability of marginal seas to sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomis, Damia; Jordà, Gabriel

2017-04-01

Sea level rise (SLR) is a serious thread for coastal areas and has a potential negative impact on society and economy. SLR can lead for instance to land loss, beach reduction, increase of the damage of marine storms on coastal infrastructures and to the salinization of underground water streams. It is well acknowledged that future SLR will be inhomogeneous across the globe, with regional differences of up to 100% with respect to global mean sea level (GMSL). Several studies have addressed the projections of SLR at regional scale, but most of them are based on global climate models (GCMs) that have a relatively coarse spatial resolution (>1°). In marginal seas this has proven to be a strong limitation, as their particular configurations require spatial resolutions that are not reachable by present GCMs. A paradigmatic case is the Mediterranean Sea, connected to the global ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar, a narrow passage of 14 km width. The functioning of the Mediterranean Sea involves a variety of processes including an overturning circulation, small-scale convection and a rich mesoscale field. Moreover, the long-term evolution of Mediterranean sea level has been significantly different from the global mean during the last decades. The observations of present climate and the projections for the next decades have lead some authors to hypothesize that the particular characteristics of the basin could allow Mediterranean mean sea level to evolve differently from the global mean. Assessing this point is essential to undertake proper adaptation strategies for the largely populated Mediterranean coastal areas. In this work we apply a new approach that combines regional and global projections to analyse future SLR. In a first step we focus on the quantification of the expected departures of future Mediterranean sea level from GMSL evolution and on the contribution of different processes to these departures. As a result we find that, in spite of its particularities, Mediterranean Sea level would follow global changes with departures lower than + 5 cm. In a second step we use the same methodology to obtain SLR projections at global scale in order to assess the vulnerability of other coastal areas. Namely, we define a vulnerability index based on relating the characteristics of present day variability with SLR projections under different scenarios. Results show that the averaged vulnerability index is 0.5 for scenario RCP8.5 (projected SLR is about a half of the maximum sea level recorded in the last decades). However, in the Mediterranean, the Caribbean and the Sea of Japan the vulnerability index is much higher (2.6, 2.4 and 2.1, respectively). From this point of view, therefore, these regions could be considered the most vulnerable regions in the world.

Impact of hydrogeological factors on groundwater salinization due to ocean-surge inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jie; Zhang, Huichen; Yu, Xuan; Graf, Thomas; Michael, Holly A.

2018-01-01

Ocean surges cause seawater inundation of coastal inland areas. Subsequently, seawater infiltrates into coastal aquifers and threatens the fresh groundwater resource. The severity of resulting salinization can be affected by hydrogeological factors including aquifer properties and hydrologic conditions, however, little research has been done to assess these effects. To understand the impacts of hydrogeological factors on groundwater salinization, we numerically simulated an ocean-surge inundation event on a two-dimensional conceptual coastal aquifer using a coupled surface-subsurface approach. We varied model permeability (including anisotropy), inland hydraulic gradient, and recharge rate. Three salinization-assessment indicators were developed, based on flushing time, depth of salt penetration, and a combination of the two, weighted flushing time, with which the impact of hydrogeological factors on groundwater vulnerability to salinization were quantitatively assessed. The vulnerability of coastal aquifers increases with increasing isotropic permeability. Low horizontal permeability (kx) and high vertical permeability (kz) lead to high aquifer vulnerability, and high kx and low kz lead to low aquifer vulnerability. Vulnerability decreases with increasing groundwater hydraulic gradient and increasing recharge rate. Additionally, coastal aquifers with a low recharge rate (R ≤ 300 mm yr-1) may be highly vulnerable to ocean-surge inundation. This study shows how the newly introduced indicators can be used to quantitatively assess coastal aquifer vulnerability. The results are important for global vulnerability assessment of coastal aquifers to ocean-surge inundation.

Tsunami vulnerability assessment in the western coastal belt in Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranagalage, M. M.

2017-12-01

26th December 2004 tsunami disaster has caused massive loss of life, damage to coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activities in the coastal belt of Sri Lanka. Tsunami vulnerability assessment is a requirement for disaster risk and vulnerability reduction. It plays a major role in identifying the extent and level of vulnerabilities to disasters within the communities. There is a need for a clearer understanding of the disaster risk patterns and factors contributing to it in different parts of the coastal belt. The main objective of this study is to investigate tsunami vulnerability assessment of Moratuwa Municipal council area in Sri Lanka. We have selected Moratuwa area due to considering urbanization pattern and Tsunami hazards of the country. Different data sets such as one-meter resolution LiDAR data, orthophoto, population, housing data and road layer were employed in this study. We employed tsunami vulnerability model for 1796 housing units located there, for a tsunami scenario with a maximum run-up 8 meters. 86% of the total land area affected by the tsunami in 8 meters scenarios. Additionally, building population has been used to estimate population in different vulnerability levels. The result shows that 32% of the buildings have extremely critical vulnerability level, 46% have critical vulnerability level, 22% have high vulnerability level, and 1% have a moderate vulnerability. According to the population estimation model results, 18% reside building with extremely critical vulnerability, 43% with critical vulnerability, 36% with high vulnerability and 3% belong to moderate vulnerability level. The results of the study provide a clear picture of tsunami vulnerability. Outcomes of this analysis can use as a valuable tool for urban planners to assess the risk and extent of disaster risk reduction which could be achieved via suitable mitigation measures to manage the coastal belt in Sri Lanka.

Using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process multicriteria and Geographical information system for coastal vulnerability analysis in Morocco: The case of Mohammedia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahri, Meryem; Maanan, Mohamed; Hakdaoui, Mustapha

2016-04-01

This paper shows a method to assess the vulnerability of coastal risks such as coastal erosion or submarine applying Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and spatial analysis techniques with Geographic Information System (GIS). The coast of the Mohammedia located in Morocco was chosen as the study site to implement and validate the proposed framework by applying a GIS-FAHP based methodology. The coastal risk vulnerability mapping follows multi-parametric causative factors as sea level rise, significant wave height, tidal range, coastal erosion, elevation, geomorphology and distance to an urban area. The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology enables the calculation of corresponding criteria weights. The result shows that the coastline of the Mohammedia is characterized by a moderate, high and very high level of vulnerability to coastal risk. The high vulnerability areas are situated in the east at Monika and Sablette beaches. This technical approach is based on the efficiency of the Geographic Information System tool based on Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process to help decision maker to find optimal strategies to minimize coastal risks.

A Preliminary Assessment of Social Vulnerability in Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazra, Sugata; Islam, Nabiul

2017-04-01

The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta has a high population density and is exposed to rapid environmental changes making it one of the most stressed deltas in the world. The low-lying coastal areas of the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta comprise 19 coastal districts of Bangladesh and two districts in India with significant land areas within 5 meters of sea level has a population of more than 50 million people at an average population density of 1100 people/km2. This population is exposed to a range of hazards such as severe cyclones, coastal erosion, and salinization, exacerbated by climate change and subsidence which imply severe stress on the resource dependent community of this region. This situation is further complicated by poverty and limited social well-being such as poor access to education/ health/ drinking water/ sanitation facilities, and lack of food and energy security. Thus assessing social vulnerability can help to understand which communities are susceptible to environmental change and guide adaptation actions to address these threats. This preliminary study aims to construct a socio-economic index by assessing the social vulnerability of coastal communities of GBM Delta taking consistent and common secondary data from the Census of India and the Bangladesh Bureau of Statisticsand applyinga Principle Component Analysis(PCA) methodology. Several statistical tests like Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) have also been used to assess the appropriateness of using PCA. Among the selected common indicators, five major components are found to explain majority of the total variation of social vulnerability across the delta: (1) poverty, (2) dependency ratio, (3) agriculture dependency, (4) lack of sanitation and (5) existence of mud houses. The most important observation is the existence of a social vulnerability gradient across the coast. In other words, socially marginalised and vulnerable communities are found on the Delta margin in both India and Bangladesh. Several coastal sub-districts(Blocks in India, Upazila in Bangladesh) like Manpura, Basanti, Koyra, Teknaf, Sandeshkhali-II have maximum social vulnerability and have the potential to be adversely affected by environmental change, whereas several more inland sub-districts like Barrackpur-I, II, Panchlaish, Kotwali, Double Mooring have a comparatively low social vulnerability.This preliminary analysis of spatial variation of social vulnerability in the GBM delta suggests that a more intensive study of vulnerability and risk is required under a range of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic changes. The present study is a part of joint GBM delta study taken up by DECCMA (Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation) project as part of the Collaborative ADAPTATION Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.

The Effect of Coastline Changes to Local Community's Social-Economic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, M. I.; Rahmat, N. H.

2016-09-01

The coastal area is absolutely essential for the purposes of resident, recreation, tourism, fisheries and agriculture as a source of socio-economic development of local community. Some of the activities will affect the coastline changes. Coastline changes may occur due to two main factors include natural factors and also by the factor of human activities in coastal areas. Sea level rise, erosion and sedimentation are among the factors that can contribute to the changes in the coastline naturally, while the reclamation and development in coastal areas are factors of coastline changes due to human activities. Resident area and all activities in coastal areas will provide economic resources to the residents of coastal areas. However, coastline changes occur in the coastal areas will affect socio-economic for local community. A significant effect can be seen through destruction of infrastructure, loss of land, and destroy of crops. Batu Pahat is an area with significant changes of coastline. The changes of coastline from 1985 to 2013 can be determined by using topographical maps in 1985 and satellite images where the changes images are taken in 2011 and 2013 respectively. To identify the changes of risk areas, Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) is used to indicate vulnerability for coastal areas. This change indirectly affects the source of income in their agricultural cash crops such as oil palm and coconut. Their crops destroyed and reduced due to impact of changes in the coastline. Identification of risk coastal areas needs to be done in order for the society and local authorities to be prepared for coastline changes.

BEACH GRASS INVASIONS AND COASTAL FLOOD PROTECTION: FORECASTING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COASTAL VULNERABILITY

EPA Science Inventory

Our work will yield an increased general understanding of interactions among the alteration of coastal ecosystem, species invasions, climate change, and human risk in coastal environments. In addition, we will conduct a quantitative vulnerability assessment of a specific coast...

The spatial distribution of vulnerability to the health impacts of flooding in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

PubMed

Phung, Dung; Rutherford, Shannon; Dwirahmadi, Febi; Chu, Cordia; Do, Cuong Manh; Nguyen, Thuy; Duong, Nam Chi

2016-06-01

Flooding causes significant public health issues. The Mekong Delta has been considered the region to be the most vulnerable to flooding in Vietnam. This study assessed the spatial vulnerability of the health impacts of flooding in the Mekong Delta region, Vietnam. This study applied a vulnerability assessment framework which was computed as the function of three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The indicators for each dimension were derived from the relevant literature, consultations with experts, and data availability. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and a principal component analysis (PCA) were used to determine the weight of indicators. Vulnerability indexes (VIs) were then computed for each province. A total of 29 indicators (sensitivity index, 14; adaptive capacity index, 13; and exposure index, 2) were employed to evaluate the vulnerability to the health impacts of flooding at a provincial level. The results of AHP revealed that the highest VIs were found in the Dong Thap and An Giang provinces (VI, 1.948 and 1.574, respectively). VIs were distributed with higher indexes in upstream provinces close to a river than in coastal provinces. PCA generated three components from the 29 indicators, and the VIs computed from the PCA method are in substantial agreement with the AHP method (ICC = 0.71, p < 0.05). The vulnerability to the health impacts of flooding varies from province to province in the Mekong Delta region in Vietnam. Individual plans for health preparedness and adaption to flooding should be developed for each province in the Mekong Delta region.

Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Costanza, Jennifer; Beck, Scott; Pyne, Milo; Terando, Adam; Rubino, Matthew J.; White, Rickie; Collazo, Jaime

2016-08-11

Climate change impacts ecosystems in many ways, from effects on species to phenology to wildfire dynamics. Assessing the potential vulnerability of ecosystems to future changes in climate is an important first step in prioritizing and planning for conservation. Although assessments of climate change vulnerability commonly are done for species, fewer have been done for ecosystems. To aid regional conservation planning efforts, we assessed climate change vulnerability for ecosystems in the Southeastern United States and Caribbean.First, we solicited input from experts to create a list of candidate ecosystems for assessment. From that list, 12 ecosystems were selected for a vulnerability assessment that was based on a synthesis of available geographic information system (GIS) data and literature related to 3 components of vulnerability—sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. This literature and data synthesis comprised “Phase I” of the assessment. Sensitivity is the degree to which the species or processes in the ecosystem are affected by climate. Exposure is the likely future change in important climate and sea level variables. Adaptive capacity is the degree to which ecosystems can adjust to changing conditions. Where available, GIS data relevant to each of these components were used. For example, we summarized observed and projected climate, protected areas existing in 2011, projected sea-level rise, and projected urbanization across each ecosystem’s distribution. These summaries were supplemented with information in the literature, and a short narrative assessment was compiled for each ecosystem. We also summarized all information into a qualitative vulnerability rating for each ecosystem.Next, for 2 of the 12 ecosystems (East Gulf Coastal Plain Near-Coast Pine Flatwoods and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland), the NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI) framework was used as an alternative approach for assessing vulnerability. Use of the HCCVI approach comprised “Phase II” of the assessment. This approach uses summaries of GIS data and models to develop a series of numeric indices for components of vulnerability. We incorporated many of the data sources used in Phase I, but added the results of several other data sources, including climate envelope modeling and vegetation dynamics modeling. The results of Phase II were high and low numeric vulnerability ratings for mid-century and the end of century for each ecosystem. The high and low ratings represented the potential range of vulnerability scores owing to uncertainties in future climate conditions and ecosystem effects.Of the 12 ecosystems assessed in the first approach, five were rated as having high vulnerability (Caribbean Coastal Mangrove, Caribbean Montane Wet Elfin Forest, East Gulf Coastal Plain Southern Loess Bluff Forest, Edwards Plateau Limestone Shrubland, and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland). Six ecosystems had medium vulnerability, and one ecosystem had low vulnerability. For the two ecosystems assessed with both approaches, vulnerability ratings generally agreed. The assessment concluded by comparing the two approaches, identifying critical research needs, and making suggestions for future ecosystem vulnerability assessments in the Southeast and beyond. Research needs include reducing uncertainty in the degree of climate exposure likely in the future, as well as acquiring more information on how climate might affect biotic interactions and hydrologic processes. Ideally, a comprehensive vulnerability assessment would include both the narrative summaries that resulted from the synthesis in Phase I, as well as a numeric index that incorporates uncertainty as in Phase II.

Coastal erosion vulnerability and risk assessment focusing in tourism beach use.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandrakis, George

2016-04-01

It is well established that the global market for tourism services is a key source of economic growth. Especially among Mediterranean countries, the tourism sector is one of the principal sectors driving national economies. With the majority of the mass tourism activities concentrated around coastal areas, coastal erosion, inter alia, poses a significant threat to coastal economies that depend heavily on revenues from tourism. The economic implications of beach erosion were mainly focused in the cost of coastal protection measures, instead of the revenue losses from tourism. For this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and economic activity need to be identified. To achieve this, a joint environmental and economic evaluation approach of the problem can provide a managerial tool to mitigate the impact of beach erosion in tourism, through realistic cost-benefit scenarios for planning alternative protection measures. Such a multipurpose tool needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which relationships can be better understood when distributed and analyzed along the geographical space. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index (BVI) method. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this econometric modelling, Beach Value is related with economic and environmental attributes like, Beach width, distance from the city) of each sector, tourism attributes (Coastal business; Number of hotels; Number of hotel rooms; Room price; Beach attendance). All calculations are implemented in a GIS database, organised in five levels. As case study area for the application of the method is selected Crete Island, while for the small scale four beach tourist destinations in the Island of Crete, with different vulnerabilities. In the small scale vulnerability analysis, the sectors of the beach which are most vulnerable were identified, and risk analysis was made based on the revenue losses. Acknowledgments This work was implemented within the framework of "Post-Doctoral Excellence Scholarship. State Scholarships Foundation, Greece IKY-Siemens Action"

Assessment of coastal vulnerability through the use of GIS tools in South Sicily (Italy).

PubMed

Anfuso, Giorgio; Martínez Del Pozo, José Angel

2009-03-01

This study assessed coastal erosion vulnerability along a 90-km sector, which included both erosional and accretionary beaches, and different levels of human occupation. Two aerial photogrammetric flights were used to reconstruct coastal evolution between 1977 and 1999. During this period, extensive accretion was recorded updrift of human structures at harbors and ports, e.g., Scoglitti (105.6 m), Donnalucata (52.8 m), and Pozzallo (94.6 m). Conversely, erosion was recorded in downdrift areas, with maximum values at Modica Stream mouth (63.8 m) and Point Castellazzo (35.2 m). Assessments were subsequently divided into four categories ranging from "high erosion" to "accretion." Several sources were examined to assess human activities and land use. The latter was mapped and divided into four categories, ranging from "very high" to "no capital" land use. Subsequently, coastal erosion vulnerability was assessed by combining land use categories with recorded coastline behavior. Results showed "very high" to "high" vulnerability along 5.8% and 16.6%, respectively, of the littoral, while 20.9% and 56.7%, respectively, was found to exhibit "medium" and "low/very low" vulnerability. A very good agreement between predicted coastal vulnerability and coastal trend had been observed over recent years. Furthermore, several human structures and activities are located within the "imminent collapse zone (ICZ)" which reached maximum values of 17.5 m at Modica Stream and 13.5 m at Point Braccetto.

Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability Through the Use of GIS Tools in South Sicily (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anfuso, Giorgio; Martínez Del Pozo, José Ángel

2009-03-01

This study assessed coastal erosion vulnerability along a 90-km sector, which included both erosional and accretionary beaches, and different levels of human occupation. Two aerial photogrammetric flights were used to reconstruct coastal evolution between 1977 and 1999. During this period, extensive accretion was recorded updrift of human structures at harbors and ports, e.g., Scoglitti (105.6 m), Donnalucata (52.8 m), and Pozzallo (94.6 m). Conversely, erosion was recorded in downdrift areas, with maximum values at Modica Stream mouth (63.8 m) and Point Castellazzo (35.2 m). Assessments were subsequently divided into four categories ranging from “high erosion” to “accretion.” Several sources were examined to assess human activities and land use. The latter was mapped and divided into four categories, ranging from “very high” to “no capital” land use. Subsequently, coastal erosion vulnerability was assessed by combining land use categories with recorded coastline behavior. Results showed “very high” to “high” vulnerability along 5.8% and 16.6%, respectively, of the littoral, while 20.9% and 56.7%, respectively, was found to exhibit “medium” and “low/very low” vulnerability. A very good agreement between predicted coastal vulnerability and coastal trend had been observed over recent years. Furthermore, several human structures and activities are located within the “imminent collapse zone (ICZ)” which reached maximum values of 17.5 m at Modica Stream and 13.5 m at Point Braccetto.

Coastal erosion risk assessment using natural and human factors in different scales.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandrakis, George; Kampanis, Nikolaos

2015-04-01

Climate change, including sea-level rise and increasing storms, raise the threats of coastal erosion. Mitigating and adapting to coastal erosion risks in areas of human interest, like urban areas, culture heritage sites, and areas of economic interest, present a major challenge for society. In this context, decision making needs to be based in reliable risk assessment that includes environmental, social and economic factors. By integrating coastal hazard and risk assessments maps into coastal management plans, risks in areas of interest can be reduced. To address this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and socioeconomic importance need to be identified. A holistic risk assessment based in environmental, socioeconomic and economics approach can provide managers information how to mitigate the impact of coastal erosion and plan protection measures. Such an approach needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which interactions can be better assessed when distributed and analysed along the geographical space. In this work, estimations of climate change impact to coastline are based on a combination of environmental and economic data analysed in a GIS database. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The vulnerability assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this econometric modelling, Beach Value is related with economic and environmental attributes of the beach. All calculations are implemented in a GIS database, organised in five levels. In the first level the gathering of raw data is been made. In the second level data are organized in different scales. Third level, concerns the generating of new thematic data for further use. Risk assessment analysis and cost benefit analysis for protection measures is been made in level four. In the fifth level the results are transformed in user friendly form to be used by coastal managers. As case study area for the application of the method is selected Crete Island, while for the small scale the city of Rethymnon, which at the regional vulnerability analysis was found as high vulnerable. In the small scale vulnerability analysis, the sectors of the beach which are most vulnerable were identified, and risk analysis was made based on the revenue losses. Acknowledgments This work was implemented within the framework of the Action «Supporting Postdoctoral Researchers» of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" (Action's Beneficiary: General Secretariat for Research and Technology), and is co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF) and the Greek State.

Vulnerability of Coastal Communities from Storm Surge and Flood Disasters

PubMed Central

Bathi, Jejal Reddy; Das, Himangshu S.

2016-01-01

Disasters in the form of coastal storms and hurricanes can be very destructive. Preparing for anticipated effects of such disasters can help reduce the public health and economic burden. Identifying vulnerable population groups can help prioritize resources for the most needed communities. This paper presents a quantitative framework for vulnerability measurement that incorporates both socioeconomic and flood inundation vulnerability. The approach is demonstrated for three coastal communities in Mississippi with census tracts being the study unit. The vulnerability results are illustrated as thematic maps for easy usage by planners and emergency responders to assist in prioritizing their actions to vulnerable populations during storm surge and flood disasters. PMID:26907313

RSLR-induced increase of vulnerability to storms along the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosom, Eva; Jiménez, José A.; Nicholls, Robert J.

2014-05-01

Climate-related hazards are affecting coasts worldwide and they are likely to increase during the next decades (Nicholls et al., 2007). If we also consider that values at exposure are also increasing, coastal areas will very likely be exposed to increasing risks. Due to this, to properly develop sustainable coastal risk management plans it is necessary to consider climate-change induced effects as an additional forcing. Within this context, vulnerability assessment is a useful tool to help managers to make decisions in resource allocation and development of DRR plans. Vulnerability can be simply defined as the potential of a coastal system to be harmed by a given hazard. The negative contribution (susceptibility) is characterized through the magnitude of main induced processes (erosion and inundation) whereas the positive one (resilience) is parameterized in function of beach geomorphology. With respect to extreme events, Bosom and Jiménez (2011) presented a framework to assess coastal vulnerability to storms at regional scale adopting a probabilistic approach. In this work, this framework is enlarged by including the potential effects of RSLR on the vulnerability assessment. Thus, RSLR-driven processes (erosion and inundation) are accounted through their induced modifications on beach morphology that can affect the beach capacity of response or, in other words, its adaptation capacity. The inclusion of this effect in the vulnerability framework significantly changes coastal vulnerability values to storms at any probability of occurrence without the need of considering any change in storminess. The magnitude of the vulnerability increase depends on the considered RSLR scenario and the coastal geomorphology. This integrated framework has been applied to 219 km of the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean) considering different RSLR scenarios and time projections. Preliminary results obtained for a Tr = 50-y and the medium RSLR scenario (3.8 mm/y + subsidence) indicate a significant increase in coastal stretches with a high and very high vulnerability to storms. Thus, regarding erosion, these vulnerable stretches increase from 28 % of the coast under current conditions to 39 % and 49 % in 25-y and 50-y projections. With respect to inundation and, considering the dynamic response of the coast, the increase is smaller, from 31 % to 35 % and 40% respectively. References Nicholls RJ et al. 2007. Coastal systems and low-lying areas. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of WG II to 4th Assessment Report of IPCC, 315-356. Bosom E, Jiménez JA. 2011. Probabilistic coastal vulnerability assessment to storms at regional scale - application to Catalan beaches (NW Mediterranean). NHESS11:475-484. Acknowledgements This work has been done in the framework of the PaiRisC-M (CTM2011-29808) and RISC-KIT EU FP7 research project (603458). First author was supported by a Ph D Grant from the Spanish Ministry of Education.

Perceptions of risk among households in two Australian coastal communities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elrick-Barr, Carmen E.; Smith, Timothy F.; Thomsen, Dana C.

There is limited knowledge of risk perceptions in coastal communities despite their vulnerability to a range of risks including the impacts of climate change. A survey of 400 households in two Australian coastal communities, combined with semi-structured interviews, provides insight into household perceptions of the relative importance of climatic and non-climatic risks and the subsequent risk priorities that may inform household adaptive action. In contrast to previous research, the results demonstrated that geographic location and household characteristics might not affect perceptions of vulnerability to environmental hazards. However, past experience was a significant influence, raising the priority of environmental concerns. Overall,more » the results highlight the priority concerns of coastal households (from finance, to health and environment) and suggest to increase the profile of climate issues in coastal communities climate change strategies need to better demonstrate links between climate vulnerability and other household concerns. Moreover, promoting generic capacities in isolation from understanding the context in which households construe climate risks is unlikely to yield the changes required to decrease the vulnerability of coastal communities.« less

Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment Along the Coast of Visakhapatnam, North-East Coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivek, G.; Grinivasa Kumar, T.

2016-08-01

The current study area is coastal zone of Visakhapatnam, district of Andhra Pradesh along the coast of India. This area is mostly vulnerable to many disasters such as storms, cyclone, flood, tsunami and erosion. This area is considered as cyclone prone area because of frequently occurrence of the cyclones in this area. Recently the two tropical cyclones that formed in the Bay of Bengal are Hudhud (October 13, 2014) and Phylin (October 11, 2013), has caused devastating impacts on the eastern coast and shows that the country has lack of preparedness to cyclone, storm surge and related natural hazards. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared here are a blended and combined overlay of multiple hazards those affecting the coastal zone. The present study aims to develop a methodology for coastal multi-hazard vulnerability assessment. This study carried out using parameters like probability of coastal slope, tsunami arrival height, future sea level rise, coastal erosion and tidal range. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared by overlaying of multi hazards those affecting the coastal zone. Multi-hazard vulnerability maps further reproduced as risk maps with the land use information. The decision making tools presented here can provide a useful information during the disaster for the evacuation process and to evolve a management strategy.

Support mechanisms for oil spill accident response in costal lagoon areas (Ria de Aveiro, Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliveira, Eduardo R.; Silveira, Bruno; Alves, Fátima L.

2014-10-01

Oil spill accidents can be caused by several risk factors associated to maritime transport and port activities, which cannot always be predicted or controlled. Therefore, it is essential to support prevention and contingency plans, whose effectiveness is crucial to produce adequate responses and minimize resulting impacts. Ria de Aveiro (Portugal) is a wide coastal lagoon, within a densely populated area, representing a concentration of important biodiversity resources and several economic activities. This paper presents alternative methodologies to support the optimization of civil protection assets in the occurrence of oil spill events and the results of their application on a section area of the Aveiro Lagoon, using an established geographic information system database containing crucial data. The presented methodologies are based on the Environmental Sensitivity Index developed by the North American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA) and the Global Vulnerability Index which were applied on the Bay of Biscay (Spain). However, during the development of this work, neither of these methodologies was considered to entirely assess the study area in its full extent, which led to the need to adapt and define a bespoke approach. The introduced changes include extra categories in shoreline classification, an adapted physical vulnerability index for coastal lagoons, differentiated aspects for highly protected status areas, qualitative assessment of socioeconomic features and an access and operability index created to support emergency operation response. The resulting maps are the subject of analysis, in which considerations regarding control and cleanup methods are introduced, together with guidelines for further integration in local risk management strategies.

Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change hazards at the regional scale: the case study of the North Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Rizzi, J.; Marcomini, A.

2012-07-01

Sea level rise, changes in storms and wave climate as a consequence of global climate change are expected to increase the size and magnitude of flooded and eroding coastal areas, thus having profound impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. River deltas, beaches, estuaries and lagoons are considered particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, which should be studied at the regional/local scale. This paper presents a regional vulnerability assessment (RVA) methodology developed to analyse site-specific spatial information on coastal vulnerability to the envisaged effects of global climate change, and assist coastal communities in operational coastal management and conservation. The main aim of the RVA is to identify key vulnerable receptors (i.e. natural and human ecosystems) in the considered region and localize vulnerable hot spot areas, which could be considered as homogeneous geographic sites for the definition of adaptation strategies. The application of the RVA methodology is based on a heterogeneous subset of bio-geophysical and socio-economic vulnerability indicators (e.g. coastal topography, geomorphology, presence and distribution of vegetation cover, location of artificial protection), which are a measure of the potential harm from a range of climate-related impacts (e.g. sea level rise inundation, storm surge flooding, coastal erosion). Based on a system of numerical weights and scores, the RVA provides relative vulnerability maps that allow to prioritize more vulnerable areas and targets of different climate-related impacts in the examined region and to support the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities, providing a basis for coastal zoning and land use planning. The implementation, performance and results of the methodology for the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) are fully described in the paper.

STRESSED SEBATES: A TRAIT-BASED EVALUATION OF CLIMATE RISKS TO ROCKFISHES OF THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC USING THE COASTAL BIOGEOGRAPHIC RISK ANALYSIS TOOL (CBRAT)

EPA Science Inventory

The EPA and USGS have developed a framework to evaluate the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to impacts of climate change. This framework is implemented in a web-based tool, the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT). We evaluated the vulnerability of the ...

Stressed Sebastes: A Trait-Based Evaluation of Climate Risks to Rockfishes of the Northeastern Pacific Using the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT)

EPA Science Inventory

The EPA and USGS have developed a framework to evaluate the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to impacts of climate change. This framework was implemented in a web-based tool, the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT). We evaluated the vulnerability of the...

Perceptions of risk among households in two Australian coastal communities

DOE PAGES

Elrick-Barr, Carmen E.; Smith, Timothy F.; Thomsen, Dana C.; ...

2015-04-20

There is limited knowledge of risk perceptions in coastal communities despite their vulnerability to a range of risks including the impacts of climate change. A survey of 400 households in two Australian coastal communities, combined with semi-structured interviews, provides insight into household perceptions of the relative importance of climatic and non-climatic risks and the subsequent risk priorities that may inform household adaptive action. In contrast to previous research, the results demonstrated that geographic location and household characteristics might not affect perceptions of vulnerability to environmental hazards. However, past experience was a significant influence, raising the priority of environmental concerns. Overall,more » the results highlight the priority concerns of coastal households (from finance, to health and environment) and suggest to increase the profile of climate issues in coastal communities climate change strategies need to better demonstrate links between climate vulnerability and other household concerns. Moreover, promoting generic capacities in isolation from understanding the context in which households construe climate risks is unlikely to yield the changes required to decrease the vulnerability of coastal communities.« less

An application of a vulnerability index to oil spill modeling in the Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaBelle, R.P.; Rainey, Gail; Lanfear, K.J.

1982-01-01

An analysis was made of the relative impact to the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico from proposed Federal Outer Continental Shelf oil and gas leasing activity. An oil spill trajectory model was coupled with a land segment vulnerability characterization to predict the risks to the shoreline. Such a technique allows spatial and temporal variability in oil spill sensitivity to be represented and combined with the likelihood of oil spill contact to specific coastal segments in the study area. Predicted relative impact was greatest along the coastlines of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Useful information is provided for environmental impact analysis, as well as oil spill response planning.

Community variations in social vulnerability to Cascadia-related tsunamis in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, N.J.; Burton, C.G.; Cutter, S.L.

2010-01-01

Tsunamis generated by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes pose significant threats to coastal communities in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. Impacts of future tsunamis to individuals and communities will likely vary due to pre-event socioeconomic and demographic differences. In order to assess social vulnerability to Cascadia tsunamis, we adjust a social vulnerability index based on principal component analysis first developed by Cutter et al. (2003) to operate at the census-block level of geography and focus on community-level comparisons along the Oregon coast. The number of residents from blocks in tsunami-prone areas considered to have higher social vulnerability varies considerably among 26 Oregon cities and most are concentrated in four cities and two unincorporated areas. Variations in the number of residents from census blocks considered to have higher social vulnerability in each city do not strongly correlate with the number of residents or city assets in tsunami-prone areas. Methods presented here will help emergency managers to identify community sub-groups that are more susceptible to loss and to develop risk-reduction strategies that are tailored to local conditions. ?? z.

[The assessment of vulnerability to floods in Guangdong province at district level].

PubMed

Zhu, Qi; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Yong-hui; Luo, Yuan; Wei, Yao; Xiao, Jian-peng; Zeng, Si-qing; Ma, Wen-jun

2012-11-01

To evaluate the vulnerability to floods in Guangdong province at district level. Data were collected from the sixth census, the 2010 Statistical Yearbook of Guangdong, the 2010 Health Statistics Yearbook of Guangdong and China Disease Prevention and Control information systems, etc. The weight of each indicator was determined based on subjective method and objective method respectively; and finally the results of the two methods were compared. 13 indicators were selected for the assessment of vulnerability to floods, including 6 sensitivity indicators, 5 adaptability indicators and 2 exposure indicators. Indicators with large weight (subjective weight/objective weight) were the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.31/0.30), the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.16/0.23), infant mortality rate (0.18/0.20), the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (0.33/0.21), the proportion of illiterate in the population older than 15 years old (0.19/0.28), history frequency of floods (0.75/0.75). The mean vulnerability index (VI) calculated by subjective method was 0.35 with the standard deviation of 0.10; the mean vulnerability index calculated by objective method was 0.31 with the standard deviation of 0.08. The two weighting methods showed consistent results of vulnerability index (ICC = 0.975, P < 0.01). VI of most districts dropped in the interval of 0.30 - 0.39. Districts with subjective VI > 0.50 or objective VI > 0.40 should pay more attention to floods, including parts of the coastal areas, Beijiang River Basin, the eastern tributary area of Dongjiang River and the northern part of Pearl River Delta. Dapu district of Meizhou (0.55/0.45), Dianbai district and Maogang district of Maoming (0.54/0.48) were most vulnerable. Districts of Heyuan, Dongguan, Zhaoqing and Huizhou were less vulnerable, Yuancheng district of Heyuan showed least vulnerable to floods (0.15/0.12) followed by Dongguan (0.18/0.16), Duanzhou district (0.18/0.16) and Guangning (0.17/0.15) district of Zhaoqing. The score of indicators differed among different level of vulnerability (P < 0.05). Different regions of Guangdong province showed different vulnerability to floods, vulnerable areas should be priority in the prevention and control of floods.

South Texas coastal classification maps - Mansfield Channel to the Rio Grande

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morton, Robert A.; Peterson, Russell L.

2006-01-01

The Nation's rapidly growing coastal population requires reliable information regarding the vulnerability of coastal regions to storm impacts. This has created a need for classifying coastal lands and evaluating storm-hazard vulnerability. Government officials and resource managers responsible for dealing with natural hazards also need accurate assessments of potential storm impacts in order to make informed decisions before, during, and after major storm events. Both economic development and coastal-damage mitigation require integrated models of storm parameters, hazard vulnerability, and expected coastal responses. Thus, storm-hazard vulnerability assessments constitute one of the fundamental components of forecasting storm impacts. Each year as many as 10 to 12 hurricanes and tropical storms will be the focus of national attention. Of particular interest are intense hurricanes (Categories 3 to 5 of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) that have the potential to cause substantial economic and environmental damage to the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. These coastal regions include some of the largest metropolitan areas in the country and they continue to experience rapid population growth. Based on media reports, there is a general lack of public knowledge regarding how different coastal segments will respond to the same storm or how the same coastal segment will respond differently depending on storm conditions. A primary purpose of the USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Project is to provide accurate representations of pre-storm ground conditions for areas that are designated high priority because they have dense populations or valuable resources that are at risk. A secondary purpose is to develop a broad coastal classification that, with only minor modification, can be applied to most coastal regions in the United States.

Use of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index for Assessing Species at Risk on Military Lands

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

in northern Florida. Journal of Herpetology 26:158-165. Diemer, J. E. 1992b. Demography of the tortoise Gopherus polyphemus in northern Florida...Journal of Herpetology 26:281-289. Ennen, J. R., B. R. Kreiser, and C. P. Qualls. 2010. Low genetic diversity in several gopher tortoise (Gopherus...effects on a coastal population of gopher tortoises. Journal of Herpetology 18:231-239. Landers, J. L., and D. L. Speake. 1980. Management needs of

A global standard for monitoring coastal wetland vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, Edward L.; Friess, Daniel A.; Krauss, Ken W.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Phelps, Jacob

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise threatens coastal salt-marshes and mangrove forests around the world, and a key determinant of coastal wetland vulnerability is whether its surface elevation can keep pace with rising sea level. Globally, a large data gap exists because wetland surface and shallow subsurface processes remain unaccounted for by traditional vulnerability assessments using tide gauges. Moreover, those processes vary substantially across wetlands, so modelling platforms require relevant local data. The low-cost, simple, high-precision rod surface-elevation table–marker horizon (RSET-MH) method fills this critical data gap, can be paired with spatial data sets and modelling and is financially and technically accessible to every country with coastal wetlands. Yet, RSET deployment has been limited to a few regions and purposes. A coordinated expansion of monitoring efforts, including development of regional networks that could support data sharing and collaboration, is crucial to adequately inform coastal climate change adaptation policy at several scales.

Sea-level rise and coastal groundwater inundation and shoaling at select sites in California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoover, Daniel J.; Odigie, Kingsley; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Barnard, Patrick

2017-01-01

Study regionThe study region spans coastal California, USA, and focuses on three primary sites: Arcata, Stinson Beach, and Malibu Lagoon.Study focus1 m and 2 m sea-level rise (SLR) projections were used to assess vulnerability to SLR-driven groundwater emergence and shoaling at select low-lying, coastal sites in California. Separate and combined inundation scenarios for SLR and groundwater emergence were developed using digital elevation models of study site topography and groundwater surfaces constructed from well data or published groundwater level contours.New hydrological insights for the regionSLR impacts are a serious concern in coastal California which has a long (∼1800 km) and populous coastline. Information on the possible importance of SLR-driven groundwater inundation in California is limited. In this study, the potential for SLR-driven groundwater inundation at three sites (Arcata, Stinson Beach, and Malibu Lagoon) was investigated under 1 m and 2 m SLR scenarios. These sites provide insight into the vulnerability of Northern California coastal plains, coastal developments built on beach sand or sand spits, and developed areas around coastal lagoons associated with seasonal streams and berms. Northern California coastal plains with abundant shallow groundwater likely will see significant and widespread groundwater emergence, while impacts along the much drier central and southern California coast may be less severe due to the absence of shallow groundwater in many areas. Vulnerability analysis is hampered by the lack of data on shallow coastal aquifers, which commonly are not studied because they are not suitable for domestic or agricultural use. Shallow saline aquifers may be present in many areas along coastal California, which would dramatically increase vulnerability to SLR-driven groundwater emergence and shoaling. Improved understanding of the extent and response of California coastal aquifers to SLR will help in preparing for mitigation and adaptation.

Beyond just sea-level rise: Considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Day, Richard H.; Gabler, Christopher A.; Stagg, Camille L.; Grace, James B.

2016-01-01

Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate-change related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea-level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands.

Climate change risks to United States infrastructure: impacts on coastal development, roads, bridges, and urban drainage

EPA Science Inventory

Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase the vulnerability of infrastructure across the United States. Using four models of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of infrastructure, its deployment, and its role in protecting econom...

Predicting patterns of vulnerability to climate change in near coastal species using an algorithm-based risk assessment framework

EPA Science Inventory

Near-coastal (0-200 depth) ecosystems and species are under threat from increasing temperatures, ocean acidification, and sea level rise. However, species vary in their vulnerability to specific climatic changes and climate impacts will vary geographically. For management to resp...

Creating a Flood Risk Index to Improve Community Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klima, K.; El Gammal, L.

2017-12-01

While flood risk reduction is an existent discourse and agenda in policy and insurance, vulnerabilities vary between communities; some communities may have aging infrastructure, or an older/poorer population less able to absorb a flood, putting them at increased risk from the hazards. As a result, some are considering environmental justice aspects of flood risk reduction. To date, catastrophe models have focused on creating floodmaps (e.g., NOAA's Sea Level Rise Viewer, Climate Central's Surging Seas), or on linking hydrological models to economic loss models (e.g., HEC-RAS + HAZUS). However, this approach may be highly inequitable between areas of different income (as well as other demographics). Some have begun work on combining hydrology with vulnerability information (e.g., USACE's North Atlantic Comprehensive Coastal Study). To our knowledge, no one has tried to adapt the more advanced known heat risk theory to water risk by combining hydrology information (e.g., HEC-RAS, floodplain maps) with the social vulnerability (e.g., Cutter et al.) of the residents. This project will create a method to combine water hazard data with a derived water vulnerability index to help a community understand their current and future water risk. We will use the case study area of Pittsburgh, PA, which faces severe precipitation and riverine flooding hazards. Building on present literature of factors influencing water vulnerability contextualized to the Pittsburgh region, we will identify, quantify, and map the top factors impacting water vulnerability. We will combine these with flood maps to identify the geospatial distribution of water risk. This work will allow policy makers to identify location-specific aspects of water vulnerability and risk in any community, thus promoting environmental justice. It is possible that this type of original research would create maps of relative water risk that may prove as understandable to the general public as other flood maps, and may also help to promote "just resilience". This presentation will present a method to combine water hazard data with a derived water vulnerability index to present work on the geospatial distribution of water risk in Pittsburgh, PA.

A Coastal Hazards Data Base for the U.S. West Coast (1997) (NDP-043C)

DOE Data Explorer

Gomitz, Vivien M. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); Beaty, Tammy W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Daniels, Richard C. [The University of Tennessee, Knoville, TN (United States)

1997-01-01

This data base integrates point, line, and polygon data for the U.S. West Coast into 0.25 degree latitude by 0.25 degree longitude grid cells and into 1:2,000,000 digitized line segments that can be used by raster or vector geographic information systems (GIS) as well as by non-GIS data bases. Each coastal grid cell and line segment contains data variables from the following seven data sets: elevation, geology, geomorphology, sea-level trends, shoreline displacement (erosion/accretion), tidal ranges, and wave heights. One variable from each data set was classified according to its susceptibility to sea-level rise and/or erosion to form 7 relative risk variables. These risk variables range in value from 1 to 5 and may be used to calculate a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI). Algorithms used to calculate several CVIs are listed within this text.

An uncertainty-based framework to quantifying climate change impacts on coastal flood vulnerability: case study of New York City.

PubMed

Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad

2017-10-17

The continued development efforts around the world, growing population, and the increased probability of occurrence of extreme hydrologic events have adversely affected natural and built environments. Flood damages and loss of lives from the devastating storms, such as Irene and Sandy on the East Coast of the USA, are examples of the vulnerability to flooding that even developed countries have to face. The odds of coastal flooding disasters have been increased due to accelerated sea level rise, climate change impacts, and communities' interest to live near the coastlines. Climate change, for instance, is becoming a major threat to sustainable development because of its adverse impacts on the hydrologic cycle. Effective management strategies are thus required for flood vulnerability reduction and disaster preparedness. This paper is an extension to the flood resilience studies in the New York City coastal watershed. Here, a framework is proposed to quantify coastal flood vulnerability while accounting for climate change impacts. To do so, a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach that combines watershed characteristics (factors) and their weights is proposed to quantify flood vulnerability. Among the watershed characteristics, potential variation in the hydrologic factors under climate change impacts is modeled utilizing the general circulation models' (GCMs) outputs. The considered factors include rainfall, extreme water level, and sea level rise that exacerbate flood vulnerability through increasing exposure and susceptibility to flooding. Uncertainty in the weights as well as values of factors is incorporated in the analysis using the Monte Carlo (MC) sampling method by selecting the best-fitted distributions to the parameters with random nature. A number of low impact development (LID) measures are then proposed to improve watershed adaptive capacity to deal with coastal flooding. Potential range of current and future vulnerability to flooding is estimated with and without consideration of climate change impacts and after implementation of LIDs. Results show that climate change has the potential to increase rainfall intensity, flood volume, floodplain extent, and flood depth in the watershed. The results also reveal that improving system resilience by reinforcing the adaptation capacity through implementing LIDs could mitigate flood vulnerability. Moreover, the results indicate the significant effect of uncertainties, arising from the factors' weights as well as climate change, impacts modeling approach, on quantifying flood vulnerability. This study underlines the importance of developing applicable schemes to quantify coastal flood vulnerability for evolving future responses to adverse impacts of climate change.

Coastal Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise and Erosion in Northwest Alaska (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorokhovich, Y.; Leiserowitz, A.

2009-12-01

Northwest Alaska is experiencing significant climate change and human impacts. The study area includes the coastal zone of Kotzebue Sound and the Chukchi Sea and provides the local population (predominantly Inupiaq Eskimo) with critical subsistence resources of meat, fish, berries, herbs, and wood. The geomorphology of the coast includes barrier islands, inlets, estuaries, deltas, cliffs, bluffs, and beaches that host modern settlements and infrastructure. Coastal dynamics and sea-level rise are contributing to erosion, intermittent erosion/accretion patterns, landslides, slumps and coastal retreat. These factors are causing the sedimentation of deltas and lagoons, and changing local bathymetry, morphological parameters of beaches and underwater slopes, rates of coastal dynamics, and turbidity and nutrient cycling in coastal waters. This study is constructing vulnerability maps to help local people and federal officials understand the potential consequences of sea-level rise and coastal erosion on local infrastructure, subsistence resources, and culturally important sites. A lack of complete and uniform data (in terms of methods of collection, geographic scale and spatial resolution) creates an additional level of uncertainty that complicates geographic analysis. These difficulties were overcome by spatial modeling with selected spatial resolution using extrapolation methods. Data include subsistence resource maps obtained using Participatory GIS with local hunters and elders, geological and geographic data on coastal dynamics from satellite imagery, aerial photos, bathymetry and topographic maps, and digital elevation models. These data were classified and ranked according to the level of coastal vulnerability (Figure 1). The resulting qualitative multicriteria model helps to identify the coastal areas with the greatest vulnerability to coastal erosion and of the potential loss of subsistence resources. Acknowldgements: Dr. Ron Abileah (private consultant, jOmegak) helped in preliminary analysis of Landsat imagery, Mr. Alex Whiting provided valuable information on subsistence resources in Kotzebue region, hunters and elders of villages in Kivalina, Kotzebue, Selawik and Deering provided input in GIS database on subsistence resources.

Beyond just sea-level rise: considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change.

PubMed

Osland, Michael J; Enwright, Nicholas M; Day, Richard H; Gabler, Christopher A; Stagg, Camille L; Grace, James B

2016-01-01

Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate change-related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea-level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Assessment of vulnerability to future marine processes of urbanized coastal environments by a GIS-based approach: expected scenario in the metropolitan area of Bari (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mancini, F.; Ceppi, C.; Christopulos, V.

2013-12-01

Literature concerning the risk assessment procedures after extreme meteorological events is generally focused on the establishing of relationship between actual severe weather conditions and impact detected over the involved zones. Such an events are classified on the basis of measurements and observation able to assess the magnitude of phenomena or on the basis of related effects on the affected area, the latter being deeply connected with the overall physical vulnerability. However such assessment almost never do consider scenario about expected extreme event and possible pattern of urbanization at the time of impact and nor the spatial and temporal uncertainty of phenomena are taken into account. The drawn of future scenario about coastal vulnerability to marine processes is therefore difficult. This work focuses the study case of the Metropoli Terra di Bari (metropolitan area of Bari, Apulia, Italy) where a coastal vulnerability analysis due to climate changes expected on the basis of expert opinions coming from the scientific community was carried out. Several possible impacts on the coastal environments were considered, in particular sea level rise inundation, flooding due to storm surge and coastal erosion. For such a purpose the methodology base on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) produced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) was adopted after a regionalization procedure as carried out by Verburgh and others (2006) at the European scale. The open source software SLEUTH, base on the cellular automate principle, was used and the reliability of obtained scenario verified through the Monte Carlo method. Once these scenario were produced, a GIS-based multicriteria methodology was implemented to evaluate the vulnerability of the urbanized coastal area of interest. Several vulnerability maps related are therefore available for different scenario able to consider the degree of hazards and potential development of the typology and extent of urban settlements. The vulnerability assessments under different scenario could represent a suitable tool in the designing of risk mitigation strategies under uncertain scenario of hazard.

A simplified approach for simulating changes in beach habitat due to the combined effectgs of long-term sea level rise, storm erosion, and nourishment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Better understanding of vulnerability of coastal habitats to sea level rise and major storm events require the use of simulation models. Coastal habitats also undergo frequent nourishment restoration works in order to maintain their viability. Vulnerability models must be able to assess the combined...

Coastal Vulnerability Due to Sea-level Rise Hazard in the Bangladesh Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shum, Ck; Ballu, Valérie; Calmant, Stéphane; Duan, Jianbin; Guo, Junyi; Hossain, Fasial; Jenkins, Craig; Haque Khan, Zahirul; Kim, Jinwoo; Kuhn, Michael; Kusche, Jürgen; Papa, Fabrice; Tseng, Kuohsin; Wan, Junkun

2014-05-01

Approximately half of the world's population or 3.2 billion people lives within 200 km of coastlines and many of them in the world's deltaic plains. Sea-level rise, widely recognized as one of consequences resulting from anthropogenic climate change, has induced substantial coastal vulnerability globally and in particular, in the deltaic regions, such as coastal Bangladesh, and Yangtze Delta. Bangladesh, a low-lying, one of the most densely populated countries in the world located at the Bay of Bengal, is prone to transboundary monsoonal flooding, potentially aggravated by more frequent and intensified cyclones resulting from anthropogenic climate change. Sea-level rise, along with tectonic, sediment load and groundwater extraction induced land uplift/subsidence, have exacerbated Bangladesh's coastal vulnerability. Here we describe the physical science component of the integrated approach based on both physical and social sciences to address the adaption and potential mitigation of coastal Bangladesh vulnerability. The objective is to quantify the estimates of spatial varying sea-level trend separating the vertical motion of the coastal regions using geodetic and remote-sensing measurements (tide gauges, 1950-current; satellite altimetry, 1992-present, GRACE, 2003-present, Landsat/MODIS), reconstructed sea-level trends (1950-current), and GPS and InSAR observed land subsidence. Our goal is to conduct physically based robust projection of relative sea-level change at the end of the 21st century for the Bangladesh Delta to enable quantitative measures of social science based adaption and possible mitigation.

Geomorphology and anthropogenic impact including military constraints in a microtidal wave-dominated embayment in south western Sardinia (Porto Pino beach, SCI ITB040025, Mediterranean Sea). Implications for beach management.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Muro, Sandro; Buosi, Carla; Pusceddu, Nicola; Frongia, Paolo; Passarella, Marinella; Ibba, Angelo

2016-04-01

The coastal zones of the Mediterranean have undergone increasing pressure over the last century. The intensifying coastal development and the increasing tourist impact have led to an intense transformation of the coastlines and adjacent marine areas. The beach and the coastal dune play an important role in protecting the coastline. Thus, the study of its geomorphological evolution and of its anthropic modification is fundamental in order to adopt the best management practices. In this regard, the LIFE Project (LIFE13NAT/IT/001013) SOSS DUNES (Safeguard and management Of South-western Sardinian Dunes) aims to safeguard the dune habitats and the beach system in a site belonging to the Natura 2000 network, an EUwide network of nature protection areas established under the 1992 Habitats Directive. This project is focused on a microtidal wave-dominated embayment located in south western Sardinia (Italy, Mediterranean Sea) called Porto Pino beach comprised in the SCI (Site of Community Importance) "Promontory, dunes and wetland of Porto Pino (ITB040025)". This research aims to investigate the geomorphological processes, the evolution and the main human impacts on Porto Pino beach as an useful tool for both conservation and coastal management. The coastal area of Porto Pino is represented by sandy shorelines extending for a total length of 5 km characterized by a wide primary and secondary dune systems, a backshore wetland lagoon and marsh area arranged parallel to the coastline. This littoral area can be ideally divided into three parts: the first, about 600 m long, in the north-west part characterized by the highest human pressure due to touristic activity on the foredunes and deposition of beach wrack; the second part in the south-east, about 1100 m long, characterized by a complex dune system (primary and secondary foredunes); and the third southernmost part included in a military area, about 3300 m long, characterized by transgressive dune system with low human impact. The coastal dunes vulnerability status of this three parts was assessed using the Dune Vulnerability Index (DVI) based on 57 variables that described geomorphological condition, marine influence, aeolian influence, vegetation condition, and human effects. Results reveal the lowest vulnerability value in the area undergone military constraints. Blowouts, breaches in the coastal dune system and deflation areas are observed in the first and second part where there is the greatest human transit to allow users access of the beach. The main pressures and threats identified that determine significant impacts on dune habitats are: transit of vehicles in the dune with the subsequent degradation of vegetation and the triggering of deflation processes; setting of infrastructure on the dune; removal of seagrass banquettes. In particular, the impact of trucks used to remove banquettes is significant on subaerial beach morphology. This traffic flattens the berms, modifies sand permeability and reduces organic sediment input to the shore. This study has allowed to highlight the geomorphological processes, the anthropic pressure and the coastal dune vulnerability of this coastal area in order to mitigate the impacts.

Vulnerability Assessment: The Role of Coastal Informal Settlement Growth to Social Vulnerability in Genuk Sub-District, Semarang City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sariffuddin; Dwi Astuti, Khristiana; Farhaeni, Gustika; Wahdah, Lutfiyatul

2017-02-01

Tidal, land subsidence and flooding in Semarang City brought many consequences to the city’s economic and social conditions. In the economic sector, the largest contributor to GDP derives from industries that are located in the coastal area. The environmental problems also affect the ability of social adaptation and vulnerability. This issue encourages the efforts of the public and the government. City conditions are constantly changing force people to adapt for survival, through endogenous. At the same time, the government is trying to help for the same goal, through a variety of urban development. Although it has the same goal, many found gaps, which, if not followed could increase the vulnerability of society and lead social dysfunction. According to of the phenomenon, this article is based on questionnaire surveys, observation, and previous studies in Semarang City. Quantitative data obtained from questionnaire surveys of 133 respondents of the household. The questionnaire distributed in 3 villages in Genuk sub-district, i.e. Terboyo Kulon, Terboyo Wetan, and Trimulyo. Industrialisation in the coastal area is main caused informal settlement hyper growth in the coastal area. For the present study sought to find out how the process of adaptation that naturally affects the vulnerability of communities using qualitative methods. The results showed the social, economic condition is strongly influenced adaptability of society.

A Framework and Metric for resilience concept in water infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karamouz, M.; Olyaei, M.

2017-12-01

The collaborators of water industries are looking for ways and means to bring resilience into our water infrastructure systems. The key to this conviction is to develop a shared vision among the engineers, builders and decision makers of our water executive branch and policy makers, utilities, community leaders, players, end users and other stakeholders of our urban environment. Among water infrastructures, wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) have a significant role on urban systems' serviceability. These facilities, especially when located in coastal regions, are vulnerable to heavy rain, surface runoff, storm surges and coastal flooding. Flooding can cause overflows from treatment facilities into the natural water bodies and result in environmental predicament of significant proportions. In order to minimize vulnerability to flood, a better understanding of flood risk must be realized. Vulnerability to floods frequency and intensity is increasing by external forcing such as climate change, as well as increased interdependencies in urban systems. Therefore, to quantify the extent of efforts for flood risk management, a unified index is needed for evaluating resiliency of infrastructure. Resiliency is a key concept in understanding vulnerability in dealing with flood. New York City based on its geographic location, its urbanized nature, densely populated area, interconnected water bodies and history of the past flooding events is extremely vulnerable to flood and was selected as the case study. In this study, a framework is developed to evaluate resiliency of WWTPs. An analysis of the current understanding of vulnerability is performed and a new perspective utilizing different components of resiliency including resourcefulness, robustness, rapidity and redundancy is presented. To quantify resiliency and rank the wastewater treatment plants in terms of how resilient they are, an index is developed using Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) technique. Moreover, Improvement of WWTPs' performance is investigated by allocating financial resources to attain a desirable level of resiliency. The result of this study shows the significant value of quantifying and improving flood resiliency of WWTPs that could be used for other water infrastructure and in planning of investment strategies for a region

I-C-SEA Change: A participatory tool for rapid assessment of vulnerability of tropical coastal communities to climate change impacts.

PubMed

Licuanan, Wilfredo Y; Samson, Maricar S; Mamauag, Samuel S; David, Laura T; Borja-Del Rosario, Roselle; Quibilan, Miledel Christine C; Siringan, Fernando P; Sta Maria, Ma Yvainne Y; España, Norievill B; Villanoy, Cesar L; Geronimo, Rollan C; Cabrera, Olivia C; Martinez, Renmar Jun S; Aliño, Porfirio M

2015-12-01

We present a synoptic, participatory vulnerability assessment tool to help identify the likely impacts of climate change and human activity in coastal areas and begin discussions among stakeholders on the coping and adaptation measures necessary to minimize these impacts. Vulnerability assessment tools are most needed in the tropical Indo-Pacific, where burgeoning populations and inequitable economic growth place even greater burdens on natural resources and support ecosystems. The Integrated Coastal Sensitivity, Exposure, and Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change (I-C-SEA Change) tool is built around a series of scoring rubrics to guide non-specialists in assigning scores to the sensitivity and adaptive capacity components of vulnerability, particularly for coral reef, seagrass, and mangrove habitats, along with fisheries and coastal integrity. These scores are then weighed against threat or exposure to climate-related impacts such as marine flooding and erosion. The tool provides opportunities for learning by engaging more stakeholders in participatory planning and group decision-making. It also allows for information to be collated and processed during a "town-hall" meeting, facilitating further discussion, data validation, and even interactive scenario building.

Reducing Vulnerability of Coastal Communities to Coastal Hazards through Building Community Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhj, Premathilake

2010-05-01

Reducing Vulnerability of Coastal Communities to Coastal Hazards through Building Community Resilience B H J Premathilake Coast Conservation Department Sri Lanka Email: bhjprem@yahoo.com This paper contains two parts; Part one describes the comprehensive approach adopted by our project to build social, economical, institutional and environmental resilience of the tsunami affected communities in Sri Lanka to cope with future natural disasters. Community development, Coastal resource management and Disaster management are the three pillars of this model and these were built simultaneously to bring the community into a higher level of resilience to coastal hazards. Second part describes the application of Coastal Community Resilience (CCR) Assessment framework to evaluate the progress achieved by the project in building overall resilience of the communities during its period. It further describes how to estimate the contribution of this specific project for the improved resilience status of the selected communities in a multi stakeholder environment.

Construction of road network vulnerability evaluation index based on general travel cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, Jun-qiang; Zhai, Jing; Li, Qian-wen; Zhao, Lin

2018-03-01

With the development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of her urban road network, the vulnerability of the urban road network has attracted increasing attention. Based on general travel cost, this work constructs the vulnerability evaluation index for the urban road network, and evaluates the vulnerability of the urban road network from the perspective of user generalised travel cost. Firstly, the generalised travel cost model is constructed based on vehicle cost, travel time, and traveller comfort. Then, the network efficiency index is selected as an evaluation index of vulnerability: the network efficiency index is composed of the traffic volume and the generalised travel cost, which are obtained from the equilibrium state of the network. In addition, the research analyses the influence of traffic capacity decrease, road section attribute value, and location of road section, on vulnerability. Finally, the vulnerability index is used to analyse the local area network of Harbin and verify its applicability.

Population vulnerability to storm surge flooding in coastal Virginia, USA.

PubMed

Liu, Hua; Behr, Joshua G; Diaz, Rafael

2016-07-01

This study aims to assess the vulnerability of populations to storm surge flooding in 12 coastal localities of Virginia, USA. Population vulnerability is assessed by way of 3 physical factors (elevation, slope, and storm surge category), 3 built-up components (road availability, access to hospitals, and access to shelters), and 3 household conditions (storm preparedness, financial constraints to recovering from severe weather events, and health fragility). Fuzzy analysis is used to generate maps illustrating variation in several types of population vulnerability across the region. When considering physical factors and household conditions, the most vulnerable neighborhoods to sea level rise and storm surge flooding are largely found in urban areas. However, when considering access to critical infrastructure, we find rural residents to be more vulnerable than nonrural residents. These detailed assessments can inform both local and state governments in catastrophic planning. In addition, the methodology may be generalized to assess vulnerability in other coastal corridors and communities. The originality is highlighted by evaluating socioeconomic conditions at refined scale, incorporating a broader range of human perceptions and predispositions, and employing a geoinformatics approach combining physical, built-up, and socioeconomic conditions for population vulnerability assessment. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:500-509. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

Measuring disaster-resilient communities: a case study of coastal communities in Indonesia.

PubMed

Kafle, Shesh Kanta

2012-01-01

Vulnerability reduction and resilience building of communities are central concepts in recent policy debates. Although there are fundamental linkages, and complementarities exist between the two concepts, recent policy and programming has focused more on the latter. It is assumed here that reducing underlying causes of vulnerabilities and their interactions with resilience elements is a prerequisite for obtaining resilience capabilities. An integrated approach, incorporating both the vulnerability and resilience considerations, has been taken while developing an index for measuring disaster-resilient communities. This study outlines a method for measuring community resilience capabilities using process and outcome indicators in 43 coastal communities in Indonesia. An index was developed using ten process and 25 outcome indicators, selected on the basis of the ten steps of the Integrated Community Based Risk Reduction (ICBRR) process, and key characteristics of disaster resilient communities were taken from various literatures. The overall index value of all 43 communities was 63, whereas the process and outcome indicator values were measured as 63 and 61.5 respectively. The core components of this index are process and outcome indicators. The tool has been developed with an assumption that both the process and outcome indicators are equally important in building disaster-resilient communities. The combination of both indicators is an impetus to quality change in the community. Process indicators are important for community understanding, ownership and the sustainability of the programme; whereas outcome indicators are important for the real achievements in terms of community empowerment and capacity development. The process of ICBRR approach varies by country and location as per the level of community awareness and organisational strategy. However, core elements such as the formation of community groups, mobilising those groups in risk assessment and planning should be present in all the countries or locations. As this study shows, community resiliency can be measured but any such measurement must be both location- and hazard-specific.

Spatial configuration trends in coastal Louisiana from 1985 to 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Couvillion, Brady; Fischer, Michelle; Beck, Holly J.; Sleavin, William J.

2016-01-01

From 1932 to 2010, coastal Louisiana has experienced a net loss of 4877 km2 of wetlands. As the area of these wetlands has changed, so too has the spatial configuration of the landscape. The resulting landscape is a mosaic of patches of wetlands and open water. This study examined the spatial and temporal variability of trajectories of landscape configuration and the relation of those patterns to the trajectories of land change in wetlands during a 1985–2010 observation period. Spatial configuration was quantified using multi-temporal satellite imagery and an aggregation index (AI). The results of this analysis indicate that coastal Louisiana experienced a reduction in the AI of coastal wetlands of 1.07 %. In general, forested wetland and fresh marsh types displayed the highest aggregation and stability. The remaining marsh types, (intermediate, brackish, and saline) all experienced disaggregation during the time period, with increasing severity of disaggregation along an increasing salinity gradient. Finally, a correlation (r 2 = 0.5562) was found between AI and the land change rate for the subsequent period, indicating that fragmentation can increase the vulnerability of wetlands to further wetland loss. These results can help identify coastal areas which are susceptible to future wetland loss.

Vulnerability of National Park Service beaches to inundation during a direct hurricane landfall: Fire Island National Seashore

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.

2007-01-01

Waves and storm surge associated with strong tropical storms are part of the natural process of barrier-island evolution and can cause extensive morphologic changes in coastal parks, leading to reduced visitor accessibility and enjoyment. Even at Fire Island National Seashore, a barrier-island coastal park in New York where extratropical storms (northeasters) dominate storm activity, the beaches are vulnerable to the powerful, sand-moving forces of hurricanes. The vulnerability of park beaches to inundation, and associated extreme coastal change, during a direct hurricane landfall can be assessed by comparing the elevations of storm-induced mean-water levels (storm surge) to the elevations of the crest of the sand dune that defines the beach system. Maps detailing the inundation potential for Category 1-4 hurricanes can be used by park managers to determine the relative vulnerability of various barrier-island parks and to assess which areas of a particular park are more susceptible to inundation and extreme coastal changes.

A coastal hazards data base for the U.S. West Coast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gornitz, V.M.; Beaty, T.W.; Daniels, R.C.

1997-12-01

This document describes the contents of a digital data base that may be used to identify coastlines along the US West Coast that are at risk to sea-level rise. This data base integrates point, line, and polygon data for the US West Coast into 0.25{degree} latitude by 0.25{degree} longitude grid cells and into 1:2,000,000 digitized line segments that can be used by raster or vector geographic information systems (GIS) as well as by non-GIS data bases. Each coastal grid cell and line segment contains data variables from the following seven data sets: elevation, geology, geomorphology, sea-level trends, shoreline displacement (erosion/accretion),more » tidal ranges, and wave heights. One variable from each data set was classified according to its susceptibility to sea-level rise and/or erosion to form 7 relative risk variables. These risk variables range in value from 1 to 5 and may be used to calculate a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI). Algorithms used to calculate several CVIs are listed within this text.« less

Assessing oil spill sensitivity in unsheltered coastal environments: A case study for Lithuanian-Russian coasts, South-eastern Baltic Sea.

PubMed

Depellegrin, Daniel; Pereira, Paulo

2016-01-15

This study presents a series of oil spill indexes for the characterization of physical and biological sensitivity in unsheltered coastal environments. The case study extends over 237 km of Lithuanian-Russian coastal areas subjected to multiple oil spill threats. Results show that 180 km of shoreline have environmental sensitivity index (ESI) of score 3. Natural clean-up processes depending on (a) shoreline sinuosity, (b) orientation and (c) wave exposure are favourable on 72 km of shoreline. Vulnerability analysis from pre-existing Kravtsovskoye D6 platform oil spill scenarios indicates that 15.1 km of the Curonian Spit have high impact probability. The highest seafloor sensitivity within the 20 m isobath is at the Vistula Spit and Curonian Spit, whereas biological sensitivity is moderate over the entire study area. The paper concludes with the importance of harmonized datasets and methodologies for transboundary oil spill impact assessment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extraction of lidar-based dune-crest elevations for use in examining the vulnerability of beaches to inundation during hurricanes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stockdon, H.F.; Doran, K.S.; Sallenger, A.H.

2009-01-01

The morphology of coastal sand dunes plays an important role in determining how a beach will respond to a hurricane. Accurate measurements of dune height and position are essential for assessing the vulnerability of beaches to extreme coastal change during future landfalls. Lidar topographic surveys provide rapid, accurate, high-resolution datasets for identifying the location, position, and morphology of coastal sand dunes over large stretches of coast. An algorithm has been developed for identification of the crest of the most seaward sand dune that defines the landward limit of the beach system. Based on changes in beach slope along cross-shore transects of lidar data, dune elevation and location can automatically be extracted every few meters along the coastline. Dune elevations in conjunction with storm-induced water levels can be used to predict the type of coastal response (e.g., beach erosion, dune erosion, overwash, or inundation) that may be expected during hurricane landfall. The vulnerability of the beach system at Fire Island National Seashore in New York to the most extreme of these changes, inundation, is assessed by comparing lidar-derived dune elevations to modeled wave setup and storm surge height. The vulnerability of the beach system to inundation during landfall of a Category 3 hurricane is shown to be spatially variable because of longshore variations in dune height (mean elevation 5.44 m, standard deviation 1.32 m). Hurricane-induced mean water levels exceed dune elevations along 70 of the coastal park, making these locations more vulnerable to inundation during a Category 3 storm. ?? 2009 Coastal Education and Research Foundation.

Risk Analysis of Coastal Disaster of Semarang City, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sunaryo; Ambariyanto; Sugianto, Denny Nugroho; Helmi, Muhammad; Kaimuddin, Awaluddin Halirin; Indarjo, Agus

2018-02-01

Coastal areas are highly vulnerable to disasters, as they are affected by events occurring both on land and at sea. In the development of cities in these areas, information on vulnerability levels is needed as a consideration in determining policy. This study aims to identify potential vulnerability of Semarang city, and to investigate the potential of hazard and disaster risk levels of the city. The study was conducted in 17 villages in the northern coastal area of Semarang. The assessment approach used was score analysis to some variables, i.e geomorphology, erosion, coastal slope, waves and socio-economic aspects. The research showed that the highest level of coastal vulnerability in the Semarang city were at three villages i.e.Terboyo Kulon, Terboyo Wetan and Trimulyo with value of 4.5; while the lowest level were at the Maron beach, Marina beach and Tanah Mas with value of 2.8. The highest potential coastal hazard in the Semarang city were at two villages i.e. Tanjung Mas and Tambak Lorok with value of 4.5; and the lowest value were in the village of Randugarut, Karanganyar, Tugurejo, Marina beach and Tanah Mas with value of 1.25.The highest level of coastal risk in the Semarang city were in the Trimulyo village with value of 3.13; and the lowest level were in the Marina beach and Tanah mas with value of 1.32.

A Preliminary Tsunami Vulnerability Analysis for Yenikapi Region in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceren Cankaya, Zeynep; Suzen, Lutfi; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Kolat, Cagil; Aytore, Betul; Zaytsev, Andrey

2015-04-01

One of the main requirements during post disaster recovery operations is to maintain proper transportation and fluent communication at the disaster areas. Ports and harbors are the main transportation hubs which must work with proper performance at all times especially after the disasters. Resilience of coastal utilities after earthquakes and tsunamis have major importance for efficient and proper rescue and recovery operations soon after the disasters. Istanbul is a mega city with its various coastal utilities located at the north coast of the Sea of Marmara. At Yenikapi region of Istanbul, there are critical coastal utilities and vulnerable coastal structures and critical activities occur daily. Fishery ports, commercial ports, small craft harbors, passenger terminals of intercity maritime transportation, water front commercial and/or recreational structures are some of the examples of coastal utilization which are vulnerable against marine disasters. Therefore their vulnerability under tsunami or any other marine hazard to Yenikapi region of Istanbul is an important issue. In this study, a methodology of vulnerability analysis under tsunami attack is proposed with the applications to Yenikapi region. In the study, high resolution (1m) GIS database of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) is used and analyzed by using GIS implementation. The bathymetry and topography database and the vector dataset containing all buildings/structures/infrastructures in the study area are obtained for tsunami numerical modeling for the study area. GIS based tsunami vulnerability assessment is conducted by applying the Multi-criteria Decision Making Analysis (MCDA). The tsunami parameters from deterministically defined worst case scenarios are computed from the simulations using tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE. The vulnerability parameters in the region due to two different classifications i) vulnerability of buildings/structures and ii) vulnerability of (human) evacuation are defined and scored. The risk level is computed using tsunami intensity (level of flow depth from simulations) and vulnerability (structural and human-based) at each node in Yenikapi. The results are presented at high resolution (1m) and discussed. Acknowledgements: Partial support by EU 603839 ASTARTE Project, UDAP-C-12-14 of AFAD of Turkey, 108Y227 and 113M556 of TUBITAK Turkey, RAPSODI (CONCERT_Dis-021) of CONCERT-Japan Joint Call, 2011K140210 of DPT, Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, Japan-Turkey Joint Research Project by JICA on earthquakes and tsunamis in Marmara Region by SATREPS are acknowledged.

A new GIS-based tsunami risk evaluation: MeTHuVA (METU tsunami human vulnerability assessment) at Yenikapı, Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cankaya, Zeynep Ceren; Suzen, Mehmet Lutfi; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet; Kolat, Cagil; Zaytsev, Andrey; Aytore, Betul

2016-07-01

Istanbul is a mega city with various coastal utilities located on the northern coast of the Sea of Marmara. At Yenikapı, there are critical vulnerable coastal utilities, structures, and active metropolitan life. Fishery ports, commercial ports, small craft harbors, passenger terminals of intercity maritime transportation, waterfront commercial and/or recreational structures with residential/commercial areas and public utility areas are some examples of coastal utilization that are vulnerable to marine disasters. Therefore, the tsunami risk in the Yenikapı region is an important issue for Istanbul. In this study, a new methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment for areas susceptible to tsunami is proposed, in which the Yenikapı region is chosen as a case study. Available datasets from the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and Turkish Navy are used as inputs for high-resolution GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) evaluation of tsunami risk in Yenikapı. Bathymetry and topography database is used for high-resolution tsunami numerical modeling where the tsunami hazard, in terms of coastal inundation, is deterministically computed using the NAMI DANCE numerical code, considering earthquake worst case scenarios. In order to define the tsunami human vulnerability of the region, two different aspects, vulnerability at location and evacuation resilience maps were created using the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method of MCDA. A vulnerability at location map is composed of metropolitan use, geology, elevation, and distance from shoreline layers, whereas an evacuation resilience map is formed by slope, distance within flat areas, distance to buildings, and distance to road networks layers. The tsunami risk map is then computed by the proposed new relationship which uses flow depth maps, vulnerability at location maps, and evacuation resilience maps.

Coastal erosion hazard and vulnerability using sig tools. Comparison between "La Barra town, Buenaventura, (Pacific Ocean of Colombia) and Providence - Santa Catalina islands (Colombian Caribbean Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo; Ricaurte-Villota, Constanza; Morales-Giraldo, David; Rangel-Buitrago, Nelson

2014-05-01

Analysis of hazards and vulnerability associated to coastal erosion along coastlines is a first issue in order to establish plans for adaptation to climate change in coastal areas. La Barra Town, Buenaventura (Pacific ocean of Colombia) and Providence - Santa Catalina Islands (Colombian Caribbean) were selected to develop a detailed analysis of coastal erosion hazard and vulnerability from different perspectives: i) physical (hazard) , ii) social , iii) conservation approach and iv) cultural heritage (Raizal). The analysis was made by a semi quantitative approximation method, applying variables associated with the intrinsic coastal zone properties (i.e. type of beach, exposure of the coast to waves, etc.). Coastal erosion data and associated variables as well land use; conservation and heritage data were used to carry out a further detailed analysis of the human - structural vulnerability and exposure to hazards. The data shows erosion rates close to -17 m yr-1 in La Barra Town (highlighting their critical condition and urgent relocation process), while in some sectors of Providence Island, such as Old Town, erosion rate was -5 m yr-1. The observed erosion process affects directly the land use and the local and regional economy. The differences between indexes and the structural and physical vulnerability as well the use of methodological variables are presented in the context of each region. In this work, all the information was worked using a GIS environment since this allows editing and updating the information continuously. The application of this methodology generates useful information in order to promote risk management as well prevention, mitigation and reduction plans. In both areas the adaptation must be a priority strategy to be considered, including relocation alternatives and sustainable protection with the support of studies of uses and future outlooks in the coast. The methodology is framed into the use of GIS tools and it highlights their benefits in the analysis of information.

A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Management of Coastal Marsh Systems

EPA Science Inventory

Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, includin...

Livelihood Cycle and Vulnerability of Rural Households to Climate Change and Hazards in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, G. M. Monirul

2017-05-01

Rural riverine households in Bangladesh are confronted with many climate-driven hazards, including riverbank erosion, which results in loss of productive land and other natural resources of the riverine households, and thus threatens their livelihoods and food security. This study assesses the main drivers of vulnerability and livelihood cycle of vulnerable riparian households in Bangladesh. The study utilises the IPCC framework of vulnerability and develops a weighted approach by employing the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index. The results reveal that the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index differ across locations, however, a high index value for both measures indicates the households' high livelihood vulnerability to climate change and hazards. The main drivers that influence the vulnerability dimensions are livelihood strategies and access to food, water and health facilities. These hazard-prone households are also vulnerable due to their existing low livelihood status that leads to a vicious cycle of poverty. The findings of this study are crucial for policymakers to formulate and implement effective strategies and programs to minimise vulnerability and to enhance the local adaptation processes in order to improve such households' livelihood across Bangladesh.

Livelihood Cycle and Vulnerability of Rural Households to Climate Change and Hazards in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Alam, G M Monirul

2017-05-01

Rural riverine households in Bangladesh are confronted with many climate-driven hazards, including riverbank erosion, which results in loss of productive land and other natural resources of the riverine households, and thus threatens their livelihoods and food security. This study assesses the main drivers of vulnerability and livelihood cycle of vulnerable riparian households in Bangladesh. The study utilises the IPCC framework of vulnerability and develops a weighted approach by employing the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index. The results reveal that the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index differ across locations, however, a high index value for both measures indicates the households' high livelihood vulnerability to climate change and hazards. The main drivers that influence the vulnerability dimensions are livelihood strategies and access to food, water and health facilities. These hazard-prone households are also vulnerable due to their existing low livelihood status that leads to a vicious cycle of poverty. The findings of this study are crucial for policymakers to formulate and implement effective strategies and programs to minimise vulnerability and to enhance the local adaptation processes in order to improve such households' livelihood across Bangladesh.

Calibration of groundwater vulnerability mapping using the generalized reduced gradient method.

PubMed

Elçi, Alper

2017-12-01

Groundwater vulnerability assessment studies are essential in water resources management. Overlay-and-index methods such as DRASTIC are widely used for mapping of groundwater vulnerability, however, these methods mainly suffer from a subjective selection of model parameters. The objective of this study is to introduce a calibration procedure that results in a more accurate assessment of groundwater vulnerability. The improvement of the assessment is formulated as a parameter optimization problem using an objective function that is based on the correlation between actual groundwater contamination and vulnerability index values. The non-linear optimization problem is solved with the generalized-reduced-gradient (GRG) method, which is numerical algorithm based optimization method. To demonstrate the applicability of the procedure, a vulnerability map for the Tahtali stream basin is calibrated using nitrate concentration data. The calibration procedure is easy to implement and aims the maximization of correlation between observed pollutant concentrations and groundwater vulnerability index values. The influence of each vulnerability parameter in the calculation of the vulnerability index is assessed by performing a single-parameter sensitivity analysis. Results of the sensitivity analysis show that all factors are effective on the final vulnerability index. Calibration of the vulnerability map improves the correlation between index values and measured nitrate concentrations by 19%. The regression coefficient increases from 0.280 to 0.485. It is evident that the spatial distribution and the proportions of vulnerability class areas are significantly altered with the calibration process. Although the applicability of the calibration method is demonstrated on the DRASTIC model, the applicability of the approach is not specific to a certain model and can also be easily applied to other overlay-and-index methods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the impacts induced by global climate change through a multi-risk approach: lessons learned from the North Adriatic coast (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallina, Valentina; Torressan, Silvia; Zabeo, Alex; Critto, Andrea; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2015-04-01

Climate change is expected to pose a wide range of impacts on natural and human systems worldwide, increasing risks from long-term climate trends and disasters triggered by weather extremes. Accordingly, in the future, one region could be potentially affected by interactions, synergies and trade-offs of multiple hazards and impacts. A multi-risk risk approach is needed to effectively address multiple threats posed by climate change across regions and targets supporting decision-makers toward a new paradigm of multi-hazard and risk management. Relevant initiatives have been already developed for the assessment of multiple hazards and risks affecting the same area in a defined timeframe by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Most of them are addressing the relations of different natural hazards, however, the effect of future climate change is usually not considered. In order to fill this gap, an advanced multi-risk methodology was developed at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) for estimating cumulative impacts related to climate change at the regional (i.e. sub-national) scale. This methodology was implemented into an assessment tool which allows to scan and classify quickly natural systems and human assets at risk resulting from different interacting hazards. A multi-hazard index is proposed to evaluate the relationships of different climate-related hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge) occurring in the same spatial and temporal area, by means of an influence matrix and the disjoint probability function. Future hazard scenarios provided by regional climate models are used as input for this step in order to consider possible effects of future climate change scenarios. Then, the multi-vulnerability of different exposed receptors (e.g. natural systems, beaches, agricultural and urban areas) is estimated through a variety of vulnerability indicators (e.g. vegetation cover, sediment budget, % of urbanization), tailored case by case to different sets of natural hazards and elements at risk. Finally, the multi-risk assessment integrates the multi-hazard with the multi-vulnerability index of exposed receptors, providing a relative ranking of areas and targets potentially affected by multiple risks in the considered region. The methodology was applied to the North Adriatic coast (Italy) producing a range of GIS-based multi-hazard, exposure, multi-vulnerability and multi-risk maps that can be used by policy-makers to define risk management and adaptation strategies. Results show that areas affected by higher multi-hazard scores are located close to the coastline where all the investigated hazards are present. Multi-vulnerability assumes relatively high scores in the whole case study, showing that beaches, wetlands, protected areas and river mouths are the more sensible targets. The final estimate of multi-risk for coastal municipalities provides useful information for local public authorities to set future priorities for adaptation and define future plans for shoreline and coastal management in view of climate change.

Calibration of groundwater vulnerability mapping using the generalized reduced gradient method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elçi, Alper

2017-12-01

Groundwater vulnerability assessment studies are essential in water resources management. Overlay-and-index methods such as DRASTIC are widely used for mapping of groundwater vulnerability, however, these methods mainly suffer from a subjective selection of model parameters. The objective of this study is to introduce a calibration procedure that results in a more accurate assessment of groundwater vulnerability. The improvement of the assessment is formulated as a parameter optimization problem using an objective function that is based on the correlation between actual groundwater contamination and vulnerability index values. The non-linear optimization problem is solved with the generalized-reduced-gradient (GRG) method, which is numerical algorithm based optimization method. To demonstrate the applicability of the procedure, a vulnerability map for the Tahtali stream basin is calibrated using nitrate concentration data. The calibration procedure is easy to implement and aims the maximization of correlation between observed pollutant concentrations and groundwater vulnerability index values. The influence of each vulnerability parameter in the calculation of the vulnerability index is assessed by performing a single-parameter sensitivity analysis. Results of the sensitivity analysis show that all factors are effective on the final vulnerability index. Calibration of the vulnerability map improves the correlation between index values and measured nitrate concentrations by 19%. The regression coefficient increases from 0.280 to 0.485. It is evident that the spatial distribution and the proportions of vulnerability class areas are significantly altered with the calibration process. Although the applicability of the calibration method is demonstrated on the DRASTIC model, the applicability of the approach is not specific to a certain model and can also be easily applied to other overlay-and-index methods.

Lessons from Red Data Books: Plant Vulnerability Increases with Floral Complexity.

PubMed

Stefanaki, Anastasia; Kantsa, Aphrodite; Tscheulin, Thomas; Charitonidou, Martha; Petanidou, Theodora

2015-01-01

The architectural complexity of flower structures (hereafter referred to as floral complexity) may be linked to pollination by specialized pollinators that can increase the probability of successful seed set. As plant-pollinator systems become fragile, a loss of such specialized pollinators could presumably result in an increased likelihood of pollination failure. This is an issue likely to be particularly evident in plants that are currently rare. Using a novel index describing floral complexity we explored whether this aspect of the structure of flowers could be used to predict vulnerability of plant species to extinction. To do this we defined plant vulnerability using the Red Data Book of Rare and Threatened Plants of Greece, a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot. We also tested whether other intrinsic (e.g. life form, asexual reproduction) or extrinsic (e.g. habitat, altitude, range-restrictedness) factors could affect plant vulnerability. We found that plants with high floral complexity scores were significantly more likely to be vulnerable to extinction. Among all the floral complexity components only floral symmetry was found to have a significant effect, with radial-flower plants appearing to be less vulnerable. Life form was also a predictor of vulnerability, with woody perennial plants having significantly lower risk of extinction. Among the extrinsic factors, both habitat and maximum range were significantly associated with plant vulnerability (coastal plants and narrow-ranged plants are more likely to face higher risk). Although extrinsic and in particular anthropogenic factors determine plant extinction risk, intrinsic traits can indicate a plant's proneness to vulnerability. This raises the potential threat of declining global pollinator diversity interacting with floral complexity to increase the vulnerability of individual plant species. There is potential scope for using plant-pollinator specializations to identify plant species particularly at risk and so target conservation efforts towards them.

Lessons from Red Data Books: Plant Vulnerability Increases with Floral Complexity

PubMed Central

Stefanaki, Anastasia; Kantsa, Aphrodite; Tscheulin, Thomas; Charitonidou, Martha; Petanidou, Theodora

2015-01-01

The architectural complexity of flower structures (hereafter referred to as floral complexity) may be linked to pollination by specialized pollinators that can increase the probability of successful seed set. As plant—pollinator systems become fragile, a loss of such specialized pollinators could presumably result in an increased likelihood of pollination failure. This is an issue likely to be particularly evident in plants that are currently rare. Using a novel index describing floral complexity we explored whether this aspect of the structure of flowers could be used to predict vulnerability of plant species to extinction. To do this we defined plant vulnerability using the Red Data Book of Rare and Threatened Plants of Greece, a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot. We also tested whether other intrinsic (e.g. life form, asexual reproduction) or extrinsic (e.g. habitat, altitude, range-restrictedness) factors could affect plant vulnerability. We found that plants with high floral complexity scores were significantly more likely to be vulnerable to extinction. Among all the floral complexity components only floral symmetry was found to have a significant effect, with radial-flower plants appearing to be less vulnerable. Life form was also a predictor of vulnerability, with woody perennial plants having significantly lower risk of extinction. Among the extrinsic factors, both habitat and maximum range were significantly associated with plant vulnerability (coastal plants and narrow-ranged plants are more likely to face higher risk). Although extrinsic and in particular anthropogenic factors determine plant extinction risk, intrinsic traits can indicate a plant’s proneness to vulnerability. This raises the potential threat of declining global pollinator diversity interacting with floral complexity to increase the vulnerability of individual plant species. There is potential scope for using plant—pollinator specializations to identify plant species particularly at risk and so target conservation efforts towards them. PMID:26390402

[Effects of land use change on landscape pattern vulnerability in Yinchuan Basin, Northwest China].

PubMed

Ren, Zhi-yuan; Zhang, Han

2016-01-01

Landscape pattern vulnerability reflects the instability and sensitivity of ecological system to external disturbances and helps to understand the status and trend of ecological environment. This paper used landscape sensitivity index and landscape adaptability index to construct the landscape pattern vulnerability index of Yinchuan Basin, and got the distribution of the landscape pattern vulnerability in 2001 and 2013. Our study explored the effect of the land use degree composite index, the integrated land use dynamic degree, the importance index of land use change and various types of land transfer on landscape pattern vulnerability. Results showed that the land use degree composite index was mainly caused by the increase of the arable land, forest and the construction land. The higher proportion of the arable land or forest, the lower the vulnerability was, and the construction land had the opposite effect. With the increase of integrated land use dynamic degree, the construction land significantly increased the vulnerability, followed by grassland, and the forest significantly decreased the vulnerability, followed by the arable land. As the importance index of land use change increasing, the arable land could significantly decrease the vulnerability, followed by the forest, the grassland had a weaker trend with no obvious pattern, and the construction land significantly increased the vulnerability. When the arable land, forest and the grassland were the maintypes of land use transfer, the increasing proportion of the construction land increased the vulnerability. When the construction land was the main type of land use transfer, the grassland and forest improved the vulnerability and the arable land had the opposite effect. Changes in the number of land use types influenced the spatial structure of land use to a certain extent, which could offer a reference on using and developing the land resources scientifically. The ternary diagram could reflect the impact of various types of and use change on the landscape vulnerability, which diagram enriched the content of the research on the land use and change.

The development of a vulnerabilities indicator library for coastal flood risk management at a European scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owen, Damon; Viavattene, Christophe; Priest, Sally; Micou, Paula; Parker, Dennis

2015-04-01

Recent and historic low-frequency, high-impact events (Xynthia, Ligurian Flash Floods, the 1953 North Sea storm surge etc) have demonstrated the flood risks faced by exposed coastal areas in Europe. The hazard probability is likely to increase due to a changing climate with more frequent and violent instances of surge-driven floods, wind damage, erosion, overtopping and rain-driven flash flooding. The number and value of receptors in the coastal area also increases due to continued economic development and population growth. As part of the FP7 EU RISCKIT (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts toolkit) project, a coastal vulnerability indicator library has been produced incorporating ecosystems, built environment, human population, critical infrastructure and the overall characteristics of the coastal system. The library will include data at European, national and local levels and will be gathered, in large part, through a multitude of interviews with various members of the coastal community at 11 case study sites across Europe. The presentation will give a brief outline of the challenges in developing vulnerability indicators - particularly for countries where specific data is limited or lacking - and how the library will be organised to facilitate the use of the data. Finally, the presentation will describe how the vulnerability library will feed into a Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF). The CRAF will evaluate coastal risk at regional scale and identify "hot spots" to assist coastal practitioners to choose the best prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures for their coast. The work described in this abstract was supported by the European Community's 7th Framework Programme through the grant to the budget of RISC-KIT, contract no. 603458, and by contributions by the partner institutes.

Impacts of sea-level rise on the Moroccan coastal zone: Quantifying coastal erosion and flooding in the Tangier Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snoussi, Maria; Ouchani, Tachfine; Khouakhi, Abdou; Niang-Diop, Isabelle

2009-06-01

As part of a broad assessment of climate change impacts in Morocco, an assessment of vulnerability and adaptation of coastal zones to sea-level rise was conducted. Tangier Bay which is the most important socio-economic pole in Northern Morocco represents one of the cases studies. Using a GIS-based inundation analysis and an erosion modelling approach, the potential physical vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise was investigated, and the most vulnerable socio-economic sectors were assessed. Results indicate that 10% and 24% of the area will be at risk of flooding respectively for minimum (4 m) and maximum (11 m) inundation levels. The most severely impacted sectors are expected to be the coastal defences and the port, the urban area, tourist coastal infrastructures, the railway, and the industrial area. Shoreline erosion would affect nearly 20% and 45% of the total beach areas respectively in 2050 and 2100. Potential response strategies and adaptation options identified include: sand dune fixation, beach nourishment and building of seawalls to protect the urban and industrial areas of high value. It was also recommended that an Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan for the region, including upgrading awareness, building regulation and urban growth planning should be the most appropriate tool to ensure a long-term sustainable development, while addressing the vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise.

Development of a Climate-Change Adaptation Strategy for Management of Coastal Marsh Systems in Southern New England USA

EPA Science Inventory

Sea level rise is accelerating throughout the U.S. Northeast causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat ...

Integrated assessment of socio-economic risks of dangerous hydrological phenomena in Russian coastal zones of the Baltic, the Azov and the Black Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zemtsov, Stepan; Baburin, Vyacheslav; Goryachko, Mariya; Krylenko, Inna; Yumina, Natalya

2013-04-01

In 2012, an integrated damage from floods in Russia was about 1 billion euros, floods have caused the death of over 200 people. It is one of the most pressing scientific topics, but most of the works devoted to natural risks assessment. The main purpose of this work is to estimate the influence of dangerous hydrological phenomena (e.g. floods, underflooding and surges) on society, using vulnerability and damage assessment techniques. The objectives are to examine domestic and foreign methodologies, to integrate them and to test on specific Russian territory. Foreign training was organized at UNU-EHS (Bonn, Germany). Three different methods were used for each stage of research. The first part of the research was devoted to estimation of potential damage for population and economy of the Baltic Sea coastal zones. The authors used a model, which takes into account direct damage (loss of life, destruction of buildings, etc.) as well as indirect effects of the first, second, etc. orders (loss of profits, loss of the budget, etc.). A database, based on satellite images, maps, yearbooks of Russian Statistical Service and reports of entities, has been prepared. The database is a matrix, in which the rows are coastal zones, and the columns are given indicators: number of people in port areas (people), cost of fixed assets (million rubles), investment (million rubles.), revenue / profit (million rubles.), etc. The authors identified zones with different depth of flooding, using satellite images, and calculated the direct and indirect costs, using the methodology of EMERCOM. Maximum direct potential damage for the Baltic coast is about 15,7 billion euros, but indirect damage is more than 25,5 billion euros. The second part of research was devoted to vulnerability assessment of coastal municipalities of Krasnodar Region. A database, as a matrix of 252 parameters from 2007 to 2009 for 14 coastal municipalities, was developed. The parameters were divided into several blocks according to UNU-EHS methodology: 'exposure' and 'vulnerability', consisting of 'susceptibility', 'coping capacity' and 'adaptive capacity'. Relevant indicators for each block were selected and verified by statistical methods. The authors estimated the share of people potentially exposed to flooding with the help of geographic information system. The authors, using the technique of World Risk Index (2011), calculated sub-indices for each block, and made the maps. Areas with the highest socio-economic risks were identified on the Azov and the Black sea coast: Slavyansky, Krymsky, Krasnoarmeysky, Temryuksky and Primorsko-Akhtarsky municipal districts. On the third stage, the main purpose was to integrate and use both approaches in evaluation of socio-economic risks on micro-geographical level for different categories of the population and different industries (agriculture, utilities, etc.), using 'field' data. Field study was conducted in Slavyansky municipal district of Krasnodar region and included opinion polls, special interviews with businessmen and authorities, collection of municipal statistics and data from companies, etc. Vulnerability maps, speed evacuation maps, maps of possible locations of warning systems and maps of high insurance risks were developed. Proposals for improvement of legislation for coastal zones were prepared. The conducted research has shown the importance of both social ('vulnerability'), and economic ('damage') components of risk assessment. Using the previously discussed methods individually does not bring desired results because of deficiencies of Russian statistics. It is essential for accurate risk assessment to use an 'ensemble' of methods (statistical, field observations, etc.) on micro geographic level. The work has a practical importance for improving safety of local communities.

Alabama-Mississippi Coastal Classification Maps - Perdido Pass to Cat Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morton, Robert A.; Peterson, Russell L.

2005-01-01

The primary purpose of the USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Project is to provide accurate representations of pre-storm ground conditions for areas that are designated high-priority because they have dense populations or valuable resources that are at risk from storm waves. Another purpose of the project is to develop a geomorphic (land feature) coastal classification that, with only minor modification, can be applied to most coastal regions in the United States. A Coastal Classification Map describing local geomorphic features is the first step toward determining the hazard vulnerability of an area. The Coastal Classification Maps of the National Assessment of Coastal Change Project present ground conditions such as beach width, dune elevations, overwash potential, and density of development. In order to complete a hazard vulnerability assessment, that information must be integrated with other information, such as prior storm impacts and beach stability. The Coastal Classification Maps provide much of the basic information for such an assessment and represent a critical component of a storm-impact forecasting capability. The map above shows the areas covered by this web site. Click on any of the location names or outlines to view the Coastal Classification Map for that area.

Current & future vulnerability of sarasota county Florida to hurricane storm surge & sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, T.; Wood, N.; Yarnal, B.

2008-01-01

Coastal communities in portions of the United States are vulnerable to storm-surge inundation from hurricanes and this vulnerability will likely increase, given predicted rises in sea level from climate change and growing coastal development. In this paper, we provide an overview of research to determine current and future societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge inundation and to help public officials and planners integrate these scenarios into their long-range land use plans. Our case study is Sarasota County, Florida, where planners face the challenge of balancing increasing population growth and development with the desire to lower vulnerability to storm surge. Initial results indicate that a large proportion of Sarasota County's residential and employee populations are in areas prone to storm-surge inundation from a Category 5 hurricane. This hazard zone increases when accounting for potential sea-level-rise scenarios, thereby putting additional populations at risk. Subsequent project phases involve the development of future land use and vulnerability scenarios in collaboration with local officials. Copyright ASCE 2008.

Adaptation to Sea Level Rise in Coastal Units of the National Park Service (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beavers, R. L.

2010-12-01

83 National Park Service (NPS) units contain nearly 12,000 miles of coastal, estuarine and Great Lakes shoreline and their associated resources. Iconic natural features exist along active shorelines in NPS units, including, e.g., Cape Cod, Padre Island, Hawaii Volcanoes, and the Everglades. Iconic cultural resources managed by NPS include the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse, Fort Sumter, the Golden Gate, and heiaus and fish traps along the coast of Hawaii. Impacts anticipated from sea level rise include inundation and flooding of beaches and low lying marshes, shoreline erosion of coastal areas, and saltwater intrusion into the water table. These impacts and other coastal hazards will threaten park beaches, marshes, and other resources and values; alter the viability of coastal roads; and require the NPS to re-evaluate the financial, safety, and environmental implications of maintaining current projects and implementing future projects in ocean and coastal parks in the context of sea level rise. Coastal erosion will increase as sea levels rise. Barrier islands along the coast of Louisiana and North Carolina may have already passed the threshold for maintaining island integrity in any scenario of sea level rise (U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Program Report 4.1). Consequently, sea level rise is expected to hasten the disappearance of historic coastal villages, coastal wetlands, forests, and beaches, and threaten coastal roads, homes, and businesses. While sea level is rising in most coastal parks, some parks are experiencing lower water levels due to isostatic rebound and lower lake levels. NPS funded a Coastal Vulnerability Project to evaluate the physical and geologic factors affecting 25 coastal parks. The USGS Open File Reports for each park are available at http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/. These reports were designed to inform park planning efforts. NPS conducted a Storm Vulnerability Project to provide ocean and coastal National Park units with Natural, Cultural and Historic Resource-based data products and management documents that will aid the parks in better managing aspects of storm-preparedness and post-storm response and recovery. These results as well as specific efforts to address vulnerability of NPS facilities and natural and cultural resources to sea level rise will be discussed. NPS is also coordinating with NOAA to fill a new position for coastal adaptation and apply the information learned from research, vulnerability studies, and work with partners to develop adaptation strategies for coastal and ocean parks. To adapt to sea level rise, NPS will develop strong policies, guidance, and interpretive materials to help parks take actions that will increase the resilience of ocean and coastal park biological and geologic resources, reduce inappropriate stressors and greenhouse gas emissions in ocean and coastal parks, and educate the public about the need for comprehensive, swift and effective measures that will help the NPS conserve ocean and coastal park resources for future generations.

Development of a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Management of Coastal Marsh Systems in Southern New England USA

EPA Science Inventory

Sea level rise is accelerating throughout the U.S. Northeast causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat ...

Techniques for Producing Coastal Land Water Masks from Landsat and Other Multispectral Satellite Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joe; Hall, Callie

2005-01-01

Coastal erosion and land loss continue to threaten many areas in the United States. Landsat data has been used to monitor regional coastal change since the 1970's. Many techniques can be used to produce coastal land water masks, including image classification and density slicing of individual bands or of band ratios. Band ratios used in land water detection include several variations of the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI). This poster discusses a study that compares land water masks computed from unsupervised Landsat image classification with masks from density-sliced band ratios and from the Landsat TM band 5. The greater New Orleans area is imployed in this study, due to its abundance of coastal habitats and ist vulnerability to coastal land loss. Image classification produced the best results based on visual comparison to higher resolution satellite and aerial image displays. However, density-sliced NDWI imagery from either near infrared (NIR) and blue bands or from NIR and green bands also produced more effective land water masks than imagery from the density-sliced Landsat TM band 5. NDWI based on NIR and green bands is noteworthy because it allows land water masks to be generated form multispectral satellite sensors without a blue band (e.g., ASTER and Landsat MSS). NDWI techniques also have potential for producing land water masks from coarser scaled satellite data, such as MODIS.

Techniques for Producing Coastal Land Water Masks from Landsat and Other Multispectral Satellite Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joseph P.; Hall, Callie

2005-01-01

Coastal erosion and land loss continue to threaten many areas in the United States. Landsat data has been used to monitor regional coastal change since the 1970s. Many techniques can be used to produce coastal land water masks, including image classification and density slicing of individual bands or of band ratios. Band ratios used in land water detection include several variations of the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI). This poster discusses a study that compares land water masks computed from unsupervised Landsat image classification with masks from density-sliced band ratios and from the Landsat TM band 5. The greater New Orleans area is employed in this study, due to its abundance of coastal habitats and its vulnerability to coastal land loss. Image classification produced the best results based on visual comparison to higher resolution satellite and aerial image displays. However, density sliced NDWI imagery from either near infrared (NIR) and blue bands or from NIR and green bands also produced more effective land water masks than imagery from the density-sliced Landsat TM band 5. NDWI based on NIR and green bands is noteworthy because it allows land water masks to be generated from multispectral satellite sensors without a blue band (e.g., ASTER and Landsat MSS). NDWI techniques also have potential for producing land water masks from coarser scaled satellite data, such as MODIS.

Collaborative community hazard exposure mapping: Distant Early Warning radar sites in Alaska's North Slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brady, M.

2015-12-01

A method to produce hazard exposure maps that are developed in collaboration with local coastal communities is the focus of this research. Typically efforts to map community exposure to climate threats over large areas have limited consideration of local perspectives about associated risks, constraining their utility for local management. This problem is especially acute in remote locations such as the Arctic where there are unique vulnerabilities to coastal threats that can be fully understood only through inclusion of community stakeholders. Through collaboration with community members, this study identifies important coastal assets and places and surveys local perspectives of exposure to climate threats along Alaska's vast North Slope coastline spanning multiple municipalities. To model physical exposure, the study adapts the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) coastal vulnerability index (CVI) to the Arctic context by incorporating the effects of open water distance determined by sea ice extent, and assigning CVI values to coastal assets and places according to direction and proximity. The study found that in addition to concerns about exposed municipal and industrial assets, North Slope communities viewed exposure of traditional activity sites as presenting a particular risk for communities. Highly exposed legacy Cold War Distant Early Warning Line sites are of particular concern with impacts ranging from financial risk to contamination of sensitive coastal marine environments. This research demonstrates a method to collaboratively map community exposure to coastal climate threats to better understand local risks and produce locally usable exposure maps.

Links - Helpful Tools | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys

Science.gov Websites

Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in Systems Alaska Tidal Datum Portal For Alaska's coastal communities, an understanding and awareness of local tidal datums is critical to assessing vulnerability and planning responses to coastal geohazards

Measurement of traffic network vulnerability for Mississippi coastal region : final research report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-08-15

Natural disasters such as a hurricane can cause great damages to the transportation networks and significantly affect the evacuation trip operations. An accurate understanding and measurement of the network vulnerability can enhance the evacuees p...

[Family vulnerability index in the municipality of Pasto, Colombia, 2012].

PubMed

Hidalgo-Troya, Arsenio; Guerrero-Díaz, Gissela Fernanda; Estupiñan-Ferrín, Vivian Liseth; Rocha-Buelvas, Anderson

2017-04-03

This study's objective was to measure the vulnerability index of families in the municipality of Pasto, Colombia. In a sample of 270 families of all socioeconomic strata (239 urban and 31 rural), a confidential survey was conducted using the vulnerability index, consisting of five dimensions: demographic, social, economic, environmental, and geography, forecasting, and prevention. The families in strata 1 and 2 and the houses in the center, west, northwest, and northeast of the urban area showed high vulnerability, even higher than those in rural areas. Fifty percent of the families showed low vulnerability and 42% medium vulnerability. The poorest families were the most vulnerable, but poor families were also vulnerable in the municipality of Pasto.

Taxonomy of USA east coast fishing communities in terms of social vulnerability and resilience

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pollnac, Richard B., E-mail: pollnac3@gmail.com; Seara, Tarsila, E-mail: tarsila.seara@noaa.gov; Colburn, Lisa L., E-mail: lisa.l.colburn@noaa.gov

Increased concern with the impacts that changing coastal environments can have on coastal fishing communities led to a recent effort by NOAA Fisheries social scientists to develop a set of indicators of social vulnerability and resilience for the U.S. Southeast and Northeast coastal communities. A goal of the NOAA Fisheries social vulnerability and resilience indicator program is to support time and cost effective use of readily available data in furtherance of both social impact assessments of proposed changes to fishery management regulations and climate change adaptation planning. The use of the indicators to predict the response to change in coastalmore » communities would be enhanced if community level analyses could be grouped effectively. This study examines the usefulness of combining 1130 communities into 35 relevant subgroups by comparing results of a numerical taxonomy with data collected by interview methods, a process herein referred to as “ground-truthing.” The validation of the taxonomic method by the method of ground-truthing indicates that the clusters are adequate to be used to select communities for in-depth research. - Highlights: • We develop a taxonomy of fishing communities based on vulnerability indicators. • We validate the community clusters through the use of surveys (“ground-truthing”). • Clusters differ along important aspects of fishing community vulnerability. • Clustering communities allows for accurate and timely social impact assessments.« less

Concepts and theoretical specifications of a Coastal Vulnerability Dynamic Simulator (COVUDS): A multi-agent system for simulating coastal vulnerability towards management of coastal ecosystem services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orencio, P. M.; Endo, A.; Taniguchi, M.

2014-12-01

Disaster-causing natural hazards such as floods, erosions, earthquakes or slope failures were particularly observed to be concentrated in certain geographical regions. In the Asia-pacific region, coastal ecosystems were suffering because of perennial threats driven by chronic fluctuations in climate variability (e.g., typhoons, ENSO), or by dynamically occurring events (e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis). Among the many people that were found prone to such a risky condition were the ones inhabiting near the coastal areas. Characteristically, aside from being located at the forefront of these events, the coastal communities have impacted the resource by the kind of behavioral patterns they exhibited, such as overdependence and overexploitation to achieve their wellbeing. In this paper, we introduce the development of an approach to an assessment of the coupled human- environment using a multi- agent simulation (MAS) model known as Coastal Vulnerability Dynamic Simulator (COVUDS). The COVUDS comprised a human- environmental platform consisting multi- agents with corresponding spatial- based dynamic and static variables. These variables were used to present multiple hypothetical future situations that contribute to the purpose of supporting a more rational management of the coastal ecosystem and their environmental equities. Initially, we present the theoretical and conceptual components that would lead to the development of the COVUDS. These consisted of the human population engaged in behavioral patterns affecting the conditions of coastal ecosystem services; the system of the biophysical environment and changes in patches brought by global environment and local behavioral variations; the policy factors that were important for choosing area- specific interventions; and the decision- making mechanism that integrates the first three components. To guide a future scenario-based application that will be undertaken in a coastal area in the Philippines, the components of the model will be presented within a platform following a parameterized architecture.

Attributing the effects of climate on phenology change suggests high sensitivity in coastal zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyednasrollah, B.; Clark, J. S.

2015-12-01

The impact of climate change on spring phenology depends on many variables that cannot be separated using current models. Phenology can influence carbon sequestration, plant nutrition, forest health, and species distributions. Leaf phenology is sensitive to changes of environmental factors, including climate, species composition, latitude, and solar radiation. The many variables and their interactions frustrate efforts to attribute variation to climate change. We developed a Bayesian framework to quantify the influence of environment on the speed of forest green-up. This study presents a state-space hierarchical model to infer and predict change in forest greenness over time using satellite observations and ground measurements. The framework accommodates both observation and process errors and it allows for main effects of variables and their interactions. We used daily spaceborne remotely sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to quantify temporal variability in the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) along a habitat gradient in the Southeastern United States. The ground measurements of meteorological parameters are obtained from study sites located in the Appalachian Mountains, the Piedmont and the Atlantic Coastal Plain between years 2000 and 2015. Results suggest that warming accelerates spring green-up in the Coastal Plain to a greater degree than in the Piedmont and Appalachian. In other words, regardless of variation in the timing of spring onset, the rate of greenness in non-coastal zones decreases with increasing temperature and hence with time over the spring transitional period. However, in coastal zones, as air temperature increases, leaf expansion becomes faster. This may indicate relative vulnerability to warming in non-coastal regions where moisture could be a limiting factor, whereas high temperatures in regions close to the coast enhance forest physiological activities. Model predictions agree with the remotely sensed observations of the enhanced vegetation index. These findings could be used in forest managements for identifying vulnerable forests based on their habitat type and hydrological status.

Coastal Vulnerability and risk assessment of infrastructures, natural and cultural heritage sites in Greece.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandrakis, George; Kampanis, Nikolaos

2016-04-01

The majority of human activities are concentrated around coastal areas, making coastline retreat, a significant threat to coastal infrastructure, thus increasing protection cost and investment revenue losses. In this study the management of coastal areas in terms of protecting coastal infrastructures, cultural and environmental heritage sites, through risk assessment analysis is been made. The scope is to provide data for spatial planning for future developments in the coastal zone and the protection of existing ones. Also to determine the impact of coastal changes related to the loss of natural resources, agricultural land and beaches. The analysis is based on a multidisciplinary approach, combining environmental, spatial and economic data. This can be implemented by integrating the assessment of vulnerability of coasts, the spatial distribution and structural elements of coastal infrastructure (transport, tourism, and energy) and financial data by region, in a spatial database. The approach is based on coastal vulnerability estimations, considering sea level rise, land loss, extreme events, safety, adaptability and resilience of infrastructure and natural sites. It is based on coupling of environmental indicators and econometric models to determine the socio-economic impact in coastal infrastructure, cultural and environmental heritage sites. The indicators include variables like the coastal geomorphology; coastal slope; relative sea-level rise rate; shoreline erosion/accretion rate; mean tidal range and mean wave height. The anthropogenic factors include variables like settlements, sites of cultural heritage, transport networks, land uses, significance of infrastructure (e.g. military, power plans) and economic activities. The analysis in performed by a GIS application. The forcing variables are determined with the use of sub-indices related to coastal geomorphology, climate and wave variables and the socioeconomics of the coastal zone. The Greek coastline in considered as a case study, where the majority of the coastline appears to be undergoing erosion, with approximately 25% of the Aegean coastline, consisting mainly of beach zones and low-lying coastal (including deltaic) plains. In terms of economic activates coastal tourism is most effected, as beach zones are very high vulnerable to erosion. Also, small ports in remote islands are also found to be highly vulnerable. Acknowledgments This work was implemented within the framework of "Post-Doctoral Excellence Scholarship. State Scholarships Foundation, Greece IKY- Siemens Action"

Regionalization and Evaluation of Impacts of Climate Change on Mexican Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nava-Sanchez, E. H.; Murillo-Jimenez, J. M.; Godinez-Orta, L.; Morales-Perez, R. A.

2009-04-01

Mexican coasts exhibit a high variety of geoforms and processes, and consequently, are exposed to a variability of types and impact levels of geological hazards. Tropical cyclones are the most devastating hazards for the Mexican coast, although, impact levels are higher on the southern coast of both Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The second dangerous geo-hazards are earthquakes and tsunamis, which affect all Pacific coast, causing more damage the earthquakes generated in the Cocos Trench. For seismic hazards, there is a regionalization of the Mexican territory, however, even though the high levels of damages caused by other natural hazards, there is a lack of initiatives for performing atlas of natural hazards or coastal management plans. Exceptions are the local scale atlas of natural hazards by the Mexican Geological Survey or some other local scale atlas made with several errors by non experience private consultant companies. Our work shows results of analyses of coastal geological hazards associated to global warming such as the sea level rise, and the increase in strength of some coastal processes. Initially, due to the high diversity in coastal environments for the Mexican coast, it was considered that, a regional characterization of the coastal zone, and the gathering of environmental data for determining levels of impact of the various coastal hazards, as an evaluation of coastal vulnerability. Thus, the basic criteria for defining Coastal Regions, in order of importance, were the following: geomorphology, climate, geology, tectonics, and oceanography. Also, some anthropogenic factors were taken in account for the coastal regionalization, such as civil construction along the coastline, land used and modification of the fluvial system. The analysis of such criteria, allows us to classify the Mexican coasts in 10 Coastal Regions. On the Pacific coast regions are: (I) Pacific Coast of Baja California, (II) Gulf Coast of Baja California, (III) Coastal Plain of the Gulf de California, (IV) Pacific Southwest Coast, and (V) Chiapaneca Coastal Plain. On the Atlantic coast, regions are: (VI) Tamulipeca Coastal Plain, (VII) Veracruzana Volcanic Coast, (VIII) Tabasqueña Coastal Plain, (IX) Yucatan Platform, and (X) Caribean Coast. Secondly, the coastal hazards associated to a rising sea level and increasing strength of coastal processes due to climate change, were analyzed, and allowed us to determine, in order of importance, the following hazards: (a) marine flooding, by sea level rise per se and effect of storm surges; (b) beach erosion by waves, causing lose of beach width or the retreat of the whole beach system, and overwash of sand barriers; (c) fluvial flooding of coastal plains and deltaic areas; (d) salinization of estuaries and aquifers by saltwater intrusion. Finally, after overlying the characteristics of each Coastal Region and its exposition to the identified coastal hazards, we concluded that, Coastal Regions highly vulnerable to sea level rise are number V and VIII, since they show wide lowlands (up to 7 m above MSL), and have high populated areas affected by heavy rain, tropical cyclones and storm surges; regions with moderate vulnerability are number VI, IX and X, which contain lowlands (up to 7 m above MSL), populated areas, exhibit watershed with low sediment production, and are located on the tropical cyclone tracks; regions with moderately low vulnerability are number III and VII, which contain relatively narrow lowlands, important lagoon and deltaic systems, several rivers are affected by anthropogenic activities, and are moderately affected by storms and tropical cyclones; regions with low vulnerability and short coastlines exposed to sea level rise hazards are regions number I and IV, which contain narrow lagoon and deltaic systems; and finally, region II is of a very low vulnerability, with narrow and scarce areas exposed to sea level rise hazards. This project was part of a Research Program on Climate Change Impacts, supported by the Mexican Institute for Water Technology and was carried out as a collaborative subprogram between that institute and the Interdisciplinary Center for Marine Sciences.

PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER VULNERABILITY TO NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION IN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS

EPA Science Inventory

This paper presents a probabilistic framework for the assessment of groundwater pollution potential by pesticides in two adjacent agricultural watersheds in the Mid-Altantic Coastal Plain. Indices for estimating streams vulnerability to pollutants' load from the surficial aquifer...

Mapping global vulnerability index in mining sectors: A case study Moulares-Redayef aquifer system, southwestern Tunisia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khelif, Nadia; Jmal, Ikram; Bouri, Salem

2016-09-01

Contrary to the DRASTIC model grouping together the saturated and unsaturated zones to compute a global intrinsic vulnerability index, the global vulnerability index method incorporates both hydrogeological and hydrochemical data for a comprehensive index mapping for the saturated zones. This concept depends on the behavior and the uses of the groundwater. The main aim of this study is to propose a scientific basis for sustainable land use planning and groundwater management of the Moulares-Reayef aquifer, located in Southwestern Tunisia. The overexploitation of this aquifer causes the threat of groundwater quality by various sources of pollution. The global vulnerability index was applied in the Moulares-Reayef aquifer. The results show that the most favorable zones to pollutant percolation are situated along the wadis (Tabaddit, Zallaz, Berka, …) which are drained by continuous discharges. The global vulnerability values were correlated with nitrates values for validation. It revealed a significant correlation showing that high values of nitrates occurred in highly vulnerable zones with a value of 0.69 for the Pearson coefficient. The global vulnerability evaluation shows that the aquifer is characterized by high vertical vulnerability and high susceptibility.

Assessing the vulnerability of Delaware's coastal bridges to hurricane forces.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

There exists a need for new guidelines to address the threat of hurricane : forces to coastal bridges. Researchers at the University of Florida, Ocean Engineering : Associates, Inc., Modjeski and Masters, Inc., Moffatt & Nichol, and the Federal : Hig...

An integrated multi-parameter monitoring approach for the quantification and mitigation of the climate change impact on the coasts of Eastern Crete, S. Aegean Sea (Project AKTAIA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghionis, George; Alexandrakis, George; Karditsa, Aikaterini; Sifnioti, Dafni; Vousdoukas, Michalis; Andreadis, Olympos; Petrakis, Stelios; Poulos, Serafim; Velegrakis, Adonis; Kampanis, Nikolaos; Lipakis, Michalis

2014-05-01

The AKTAIA project aims at the production of new knowledge regarding the forms of manifestation of the climate change and its influence on the stability and evolution of the coastal landforms along the shoreline of eastern Crete (approximate length: 757 km), taking into account the various aspects of human intervention. Aerial photographs, satellite images and orthophotomaps have been used to produce a detailed coastline map and to study the morphological characteristics of the coastal zone of Eastern Crete. More than 100 beach zones have been visited during three field campaigns, which included geomorphological and human intervention mapping, topographic, meteorological and oceanographic measurements and sedimentological sampling and observations. In addition, two pilot sites (one in the north and one in the south part of Crete) are being monitored, via the installation of coastal video monitoring systems, shore-based meteorological stations and wave-tide recorders installed in the nearshore zone. Detailed seafloor mapping with the use of side scan sonar and scuba diving and bathymetric surveys were conducted in the two pilot sites. Meteorological and oceanographic data from all existing land-based meteorological stations, oceanographic buoys and the ERA-interim dataset are used to determine the wind and wave climate of each beach. The collected climatic, sedimentological and coastal environmental data are being integrated in a GIS database that will be used to forecast the climatic trends in the area of Crete for the next decades and to model the impact of the climatic change on the future evolution of the coastal zone. New methodologies for the continuous monitoring of land-sea interaction and for the quantification of the loss of sensitive coastal zones due to sea-level rise and a modified Coastal Vulnerability Index for a comparative evaluation of the vulnerability of the coasts are being developed. Numerical modelling of the nearshore hydrodynamics and the associated sediment transport and beach morphodynamics, calibrated with in situ data, is used to predict beach response and vulnerability to different climate change scenarios. Finally, the socio-economic impact of the climate change on the coastal zone will be assessed and a management protocol for the coastal zone and for the mitigation of the climate change impact will be developed. The ultimate scope of the project is to benefit the society by providing current and high quality information on the consequences of the climate change, especially those related to sea-level rise, and on the available protection and mitigation measures. In addition, the technological product will help in the proper planning of the required actions and technical interventions, reducing the need for costly, incomplete and frequently redundant localized studies and the risk of unsuccessful interventions. Acknowledgements The project is supported by the Action "Cooperation 2007-2013" (09SYN-31-711 "AKTAIA") of the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the General Secretariat for Research and Technology (Hellenic Ministry of Education).

Vulnerability of fuel distribution systems to hazards in coastal communities : final research report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-30

Coastal communities are vulnerable to disruptions in their fuel distribution networks due to : tropical storms, hurricanes and associated flooding. These disruptions impact communities by : limiting fueling in the days following the storm potentially...

[Development and validation of the Family Vulnerability Index to Disability and Dependence (FVI-DD)].

PubMed

Amendola, Fernanda; Alvarenga, Márcia Regina Martins; Latorre, Maria do Rosário Dias de Oliveira; Oliveira, Maria Amélia de Campos

2014-02-01

This exploratory, descriptive, cross-sectional, and quantitative study aimed to develop and validate an index of family vulnerability to disability and dependence (FVI-DD). This study was adapted from the Family Development Index, with the addition of social and health indicators of disability and dependence. The instrument was applied to 248 families in the city of Sao Paulo, followed by exploratory factor analysis. Factor validation was performed using the concurrent and discriminant validity of the Lawton scale and Katz Index. The descriptive level adopted for the study was p < 0.05. The final vulnerability index comprised 50 questions classified into seven factors contemplating social and health dimensions, and this index exhibited good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.82). FVI-DD was validated using both the Lawton scale and Katz Index. We conclude that FVI-DD can accurately and reliably assess family vulnerability to disability and dependence.

Evaluating social and ecological vulnerability of coral reef fisheries to climate change.

PubMed

Cinner, Joshua E; Huchery, Cindy; Darling, Emily S; Humphries, Austin T; Graham, Nicholas A J; Hicks, Christina C; Marshall, Nadine; McClanahan, Tim R

2013-01-01

There is an increasing need to evaluate the links between the social and ecological dimensions of human vulnerability to climate change. We use an empirical case study of 12 coastal communities and associated coral reefs in Kenya to assess and compare five key ecological and social components of the vulnerability of coastal social-ecological systems to temperature induced coral mortality [specifically: 1) environmental exposure; 2) ecological sensitivity; 3) ecological recovery potential; 4) social sensitivity; and 5) social adaptive capacity]. We examined whether ecological components of vulnerability varied between government operated no-take marine reserves, community-based reserves, and openly fished areas. Overall, fished sites were marginally more vulnerable than community-based and government marine reserves. Social sensitivity was indicated by the occupational composition of each community, including the importance of fishing relative to other occupations, as well as the susceptibility of different fishing gears to the effects of coral bleaching on target fish species. Key components of social adaptive capacity varied considerably between the communities. Together, these results show that different communities have relative strengths and weaknesses in terms of social-ecological vulnerability to climate change.

Vulnerability and risk of deltaic social-ecological systems exposed to multiple hazards.

PubMed

Hagenlocher, Michael; Renaud, Fabrice G; Haas, Susanne; Sebesvari, Zita

2018-08-01

Coastal river deltas are hotspots of global change impacts. Sustainable delta futures are increasingly threatened due to rising hazard exposure combined with high vulnerabilities of deltaic social-ecological systems. While the need for integrated multi-hazard approaches has been clearly articulated, studies on vulnerability and risk in deltas either focus on local case studies or single hazards and do not apply a social-ecological systems perspective. As a result, vulnerabilities and risks in areas with strong social and ecological coupling, such as coastal deltas, are not fully understood and the identification of risk reduction and adaptation strategies are often based on incomplete assumptions. To overcome these limitations, we propose an innovative modular indicator library-based approach for the assessment of multi-hazard risk of social-ecological systems across and within coastal deltas globally, and apply it to the Amazon, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), and Mekong deltas. Results show that multi-hazard risk is highest in the GBM delta and lowest in the Amazon delta. The analysis reveals major differences between social and environmental vulnerability across the three deltas, notably in the Mekong and the GBM deltas where environmental vulnerability is significantly higher than social vulnerability. Hotspots and drivers of risk vary spatially, thus calling for spatially targeted risk reduction and adaptation strategies within the deltas. Ecosystems have been identified as both an important element at risk as well as an entry point for risk reduction and adaptation strategies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Pan-European Coastal Erosion and Accretion: translating incomplete data and information for coastal reslience assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Heteren, Sytze; Moses, Cherith; van der Ven, Tamara

2017-04-01

EMODnet has changed the face of the European marine data landscape and is developing tools to connect national data and information resources to make them easily available for multiple users, for multiple purposes. Building on the results of EUROSION, an EU-project completed some ten years ago, EMODnet-Geology has been compiling coastal erosion and sedimentation data and information for all European shorelines. Coverage is being expanded, and data and information are being updated. Challenges faced during this compilation phase are posed by a) differences between parameters used as indicators of shoreline migration, b) restricted access to third-party data, and c) data gaps. There are many indicators of coastal behaviour, with inherent incompatibilities and variations between low-lying sediment and cliffed rock shorelines. Regionally, low data availability and limited access result in poor coverage. With Sentinel data expected to become increasingly available, it is time to invest in automated methods to derive coastal-erosion data from satellite monitoring. Even so, consistency of data and derived information on coastal erosion and accretion does not necessarily translate into usability in pan-European coastal-zone management. Indicators of shoreline change need to be assessed and weighted regionally in light of other parameters in order to be of value in assessing coastal resilience or vulnerability. There is no single way to portray coastal vulnerability for all of Europe in a meaningful way. A common legend, however attractive intuitively, results in data products that work well for one region but show insufficient or excessive detail elsewhere. For decision making, uniform products are often not very helpful. The ability to zoom in on different spatial levels is not a solution either. It is better to compile and visualize vulnerability studies with different legends, and to provide each map with a confidence assessment and other relevant metadata.

Vulnerability of complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishkovski, Igor; Biey, Mario; Kocarev, Ljupco

2011-01-01

We consider normalized average edge betweenness of a network as a metric of network vulnerability. We suggest that normalized average edge betweenness together with is relative difference when certain number of nodes and/or edges are removed from the network is a measure of network vulnerability, called vulnerability index. Vulnerability index is calculated for four synthetic networks: Erdős-Rényi (ER) random networks, Barabási-Albert (BA) model of scale-free networks, Watts-Strogatz (WS) model of small-world networks, and geometric random networks. Real-world networks for which vulnerability index is calculated include: two human brain networks, three urban networks, one collaboration network, and two power grid networks. We find that WS model of small-world networks and biological networks (human brain networks) are the most robust networks among all networks studied in the paper.

Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

2011-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

Trends in thermal discomfort indices over western coastal cities of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, Manasi S.; Dhorde, Amit G.

2018-02-01

The present research aimed at analyzing temporal trends in thermal discomfort indices for a period of 46 years from 1969 to 2014 over western coastal region of India for seven urban centers during the months of pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Direct thermal discomfort indices employed for this purpose were thermo-hygrometric index (THI) and heat index (HI). Statistical techniques applied for obtaining temporal trends were linear regression model and Mann-Kendall (MK) rank test. Statistical significance of the obtained trends was evaluated at 95% confidence level. Sequential MK (SQ-MK) test was used for change point detection. To investigate actual incidences of thermal discomfort, daily index values were averaged for standard meteorological weeks (SMWs) over the study period and decadal percentage of thermal discomfort during SMWs was estimated. Trend analysis of selected meteorological parameters such as dry bulb temperature (DBT), wet bulb temperature (WBT), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (WS) were investigated, which might be responsible for variation in thermal discomfort over the period. The results obtained depicted significant increase in thermal discomfort over the cities located on the southern part of west coast, while significant increase was observed during monsoon season months compared to pre-monsoon season. Decadal variation in percentage of SMWs falling in various discomfort categories was studied. At majority of the stations, moderate and high-risk SMWs have increased over the last two decades. The results of change point detection for THI and HI denoted significant increase at most of the stations after 1990s. The study validates increase in thermal discomfort vulnerability, particularly at thriving urban centers of western coastal region of India.

Developing Remote Sensing Products for Monitoring and Modeling Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Vulnerability to Climate Change and Land Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Miller, M. E.; Battaglia, M.; Banda, E.; Endres, S.; Currie, W. S.; Elgersma, K. J.; French, N. H. F.; Goldberg, D. E.; Hyndman, D. W.

2014-12-01

Spread of invasive plant species in the coastal wetlands of the Great Lakes is degrading wetland habitat, decreasing biodiversity, and decreasing ecosystem services. An understanding of the mechanisms of invasion is crucial to gaining control of this growing threat. To better understand the effects of land use and climatic drivers on the vulnerability of coastal zones to invasion, as well as to develop an understanding of the mechanisms of invasion, research is being conducted that integrates field studies, process-based ecosystem and hydrological models, and remote sensing. Spatial data from remote sensing is needed to parameterize the hydrological model and to test the outputs of the linked models. We will present several new remote sensing products that are providing important physiological, biochemical, and landscape information to parameterize and verify models. This includes a novel hybrid radar-optical technique to delineate stands of invasives, as well as natural wetland cover types; using radar to map seasonally inundated areas not hydrologically connected; and developing new algorithms to estimate leaf area index (LAI) using Landsat. A coastal map delineating wetland types including monocultures of the invaders (Typha spp. and Phragmites austrailis) was created using satellite radar (ALOS PALSAR, 20 m resolution) and optical data (Landsat 5, 30 m resolution) fusion from multiple dates in a Random Forests classifier. These maps provide verification of the integrated model showing areas at high risk of invasion. For parameterizing the hydrological model, maps of seasonal wetness are being developed using spring (wet) imagery and differencing that with summer (dry) imagery to detect the seasonally wet areas. Finally, development of LAI remote sensing high resolution algorithms for uplands and wetlands is underway. LAI algorithms for wetlands have not been previously developed due to the difficulty of a water background. These products are being used to improve the hydrological model through higher resolution products and parameterization of variables that have previously been largely unknown.

Vulnerability to typhoon hazards in the coastal informal settlements of Metro Manila, the Philippines.

PubMed

Morin, Véronique M; Ahmad, Mokbul Morshed; Warnitchai, Pennung

2016-10-01

In many low- and middle-income countries informal communities-also termed slum and squatter areas-have become a dominant and distinct form of urban settlement, with ever increasing populations. Such communities are often located in areas of high hazard exposure and frequently affected by disasters. While often recognised as one of the highest 'at risk' populations, this paper will argue that informal settlers have been directly and indirectly excluded from many formal mechanisms, thereby increasing their vulnerability to disaster events. Household surveys were conducted across several frequently flooded informal coastal communities in Metro Manila, the Philippines, following a major typhoon and storm surge disaster. The study revealed a large level of diversity in socio-economic vulnerability, although all households faced similar levels of physical exposure and physical vulnerability. Disaster risk reduction policies and responses need to better integrate informal settlement areas and recognise the diversity within these communities. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

Spatial modeling of environmental vulnerability of marine finfish aquaculture using GIS-based neuro-fuzzy techniques.

PubMed

Navas, Juan Moreno; Telfer, Trevor C; Ross, Lindsay G

2011-08-01

Combining GIS with neuro-fuzzy modeling has the advantage that expert scientific knowledge in coastal aquaculture activities can be incorporated into a geospatial model to classify areas particularly vulnerable to pollutants. Data on the physical environment and its suitability for aquaculture in an Irish fjard, which is host to a number of different aquaculture activities, were derived from a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and GIS models. Subsequent incorporation into environmental vulnerability models, based on neuro-fuzzy techniques, highlighted localities particularly vulnerable to aquaculture development. The models produced an overall classification accuracy of 85.71%, with a Kappa coefficient of agreement of 81%, and were sensitive to different input parameters. A statistical comparison between vulnerability scores and nitrogen concentrations in sediment associated with salmon cages showed good correlation. Neuro-fuzzy techniques within GIS modeling classify vulnerability of coastal regions appropriately and have a role in policy decisions for aquaculture site selection. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

National Coastal Condition Report IV Factsheet

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Overall condition of the Nation’s coastal waters is fair. This rating is based on five indices of ecologicalcondition: water quality index, sediment quality index, benthic index, coastal habitat index, and fish tissue contaminants index.

Using a Bayesian Network to predict shore-line change vulnerability to sea-level rise for the coasts of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert

2014-01-01

Sea-level rise is an ongoing phenomenon that is expected to continue and is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments and infrastructure during the 21st century and beyond. Consequently, there is a need to assemble relevant datasets and to develop modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate the likelihood of particular sea-level rise impacts, such as coastal erosion, and to inform coastal management decisions with this information. This report builds on previous work that compiled oceanographic and geomorphic data as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) for the U.S. Atlantic coast, and developed a Bayesian Network to predict shoreline-change rates based on sea-level rise plus variables that describe the hydrodynamic and geologic setting. This report extends the previous analysis to include the Gulf and Pacific coasts of the continental United States and Alaska and Hawaii, which required using methods applied to the USGS CVI dataset to extract data for these regions. The Bayesian Network converts inputs that include observations of local rates of relative sea-level change, mean wave height, mean tide range, a geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and observed shoreline-change rates to calculate the probability of the shoreline-erosion rate exceeding a threshold level of 1 meter per year for the coasts of the United States. The calculated probabilities were compared to the historical observations of shoreline change to evaluate the hindcast success rate of the most likely probability of shoreline change. Highest accuracy was determined for the coast of Hawaii (98 percent success rate) and lowest accuracy was determined for the Gulf of Mexico (34 percent success rate). The minimum success rate rose to nearly 80 percent (Atlantic and Gulf coasts) when success included shoreline-change outcomes that were adjacent to the most likely outcome. Additionally, the probabilistic approach determines the confidence in calculated outcomes as the probability of the most likely outcome. The confidence was highest along the Pacific coast and it was lowest along the Alaskan coast.

78 FR 45551 - Rebuild by Design-Competition and Registration

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-29

... this complexity, the competition is organized around four focus areas: coastal communities, high... communities are characterized by limited capacity and high coastal vulnerability. Here, there is often a tension between environmental and economic systems (i.e. the tourism industry is dependent on the...

Social, Environmental, and Health Vulnerability to Climate Change: The Case of the Municipalities of Minas Gerais, Brazil.

PubMed

Quintão, Ana Flávia; Brito, Isabela; Oliveira, Frederico; Madureira, Ana Paula; Confalonieri, Ulisses

2017-01-01

Vulnerability to climate change is a complex and dynamic phenomenon involving both social and physical/environmental aspects. It is presented as a method for the quantification of the vulnerability of all municipalities of Minas Gerais, a state in southeastern Brazil. It is based on the aggregation of different kinds of environmental, climatic, social, institutional, and epidemiological variables, to form a composite index. This was named "Index of Human Vulnerability" and was calculated using a software (SisVuClima®) specifically developed for this purpose. Social, environmental, and health data were combined with the climatic scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, downscaled from ETA-HadGEM2-ES for each municipality. The Index of Human Vulnerability associated with the RCP 8.5 has shown a higher vulnerability for municipalities in the southern and eastern parts of the state of Minas Gerais.

Tsunami Risk in the NE Atlantic: Pilot Study for Algarve Portugal and Applications for future TWS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Catita, C.; Carrilho, F.; Matias, L.

2012-04-01

Tsunami risk assessment is an essential component of any Tsunami Early Warning System due to its significant contribution to the disaster reduction by providing valuable information that serve as basis for mitigation preparedness and strategies. Generally, risk assessment combines the outputs of the hazard and the vulnerability assessment for considered exposed elements. In the NE Atlantic region, the tsunami hazard is relatively well established through compilation of tsunami historical events, evaluation of tsunamigenic sources and impact computations for site-specific coastal areas. While, tsunami vulnerability remains poorly investigated in spite of some few studies that focused on limited coastal areas of the Gulf of Cadiz region. This work seeks to present a pilot study for tsunami risk assessment that covers about 170 km of coasts of Algarve region, south of Portugal. This area of high coastal occupation and touristic activities was strongly impacted by the 1755 tsunami event as reported in various historical documents. An approach based upon a combination of tsunami hazard and vulnerability is developed in order to take into account the dynamic aspect of tsunami risk in the region that depends on the variation of hazard and vulnerability of exposed elements from a coastal point to other. Hazard study is based upon the consideration of most credible earthquake scenarios and the derivation of hazard maps through hydrodynamic modeling of inundation and tsunami arrival time. The vulnerability assessment is performed by: i) the analysis of the occupation and the population density, ii) derivation of evacuation maps and safe shelters, and iii) the analysis of population response and evacuation times. Different risk levels ranging from "low" to "high" are assigned to the coats of the studied area. Variation of human tsunami risk between the high and low touristic seasons is also considered in this study and aims to produce different tsunami risk-related scenarios. Results are presented in terms of thematic maps and GIS layers highlighting information on inundation depths and limits, evacuation plans and safe shelters, tsunami vulnerability, evacuation times and tsunami risk levels. Results can be used for national and regional tsunami disaster management and planning. This work is funded by TRIDEC (Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises) FP7, EU project and by MAREMOTI (Mareograph and field tsunami observations, modeling and vulnerability studies for Northeast Atlantic and western Mediterranean) French project. Keywords: Tsunami, Algarve-Portugal, Evacuation, Vulnerability, Risk

Evaluating the Soil Vulnerability Index (SVI), an index to characterize inherent vulnerability of croplands to runoff and leaching

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil erosion and nutrient loss from surface runoff and sub-surface flows are critical problems for croplands in the United States. Assessing cropland vulnerability to runoff and leaching is needed for watershed or regional land use and land management planning and conservation resources allocation. ...

Predicting the relatiave vulnerability of near-coastal species to climate change using a rule-based ecoinformatics approach

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Questions/Methods Near-coastal species are threatened by multiple climate change drivers, including temperature increases, ocean acidification, and sea level rise. To identify vulnerable habitats, geographic regions, and species, we developed a sequential, rule-based...

Vulnerability Risk Index Profile for Elder Abuse in Community-Dwelling Population

PubMed Central

Dong, XinQi; Simon, Melissa A.

2013-01-01

Objectives Elder abuse is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This study aims to develop a vulnerability index for elder abuse in a community-dwelling population. Design Population-based study Setting Geographically defined community in Chicago. Participants A population-based study was conducted in Chicago of community-dwelling older adults who participated in the Chicago Health and Aging Project (CHAP). Of the 8,157 participants in the CHAP study, 213 participants were reported to social services agency for suspected elder abuse. Measurements A vulnerability index for elder abuse was constructed from sociodemographic, health-related, and psychosocial factors. The outcomes of interest were reported and confirmed elder abuse. Logistic regression models were used to determine the accuracy of the index with respect to elder abuse outcomes. Results Out of the selected risk index for elder abuse, every one point increase in the 9 item vulnerability index items, there was a two fold increase in the risk for reported elder abuse (OR, 2.19 (2.00–2.40) and confirmed elder abuse (OR, 2.19 (1.94–2.47). Compared to the reference group, older adults with 3–4 vulnerability index items had increased risk for reported elder abuse (OR, 2.98 (1.98–4.49) and confirmed elder abuse (OR, 3.90, (2.07–7.36); and older adults with 5 or more risk index items, there was an 18 fold increase in risk for reported elder abuse (OR, 18.46 (12.15–28.04) and confirmed elder abuse (OR, 26.79 (14.18–50.61). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) statistically derived curves for identifying reported elder abuse ranged between 0.77–0.84 and for predicting confirmed elder abuse ranged between 0.79–0.86. Conclusion The vulnerability risk index demonstrates value for identifying individuals at risk for elder abuse. Additional studies are needed to validate this index in other community dwelling populations. PMID:25180376

Risk assessment of storm surge disaster based on numerical models and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qingrong; Ruan, Chengqing; Zhong, Shan; Li, Jian; Yin, Zhonghui; Lian, Xihu

2018-06-01

Storm surge is one of the most serious ocean disasters in the world. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster for coastal areas has important implications for planning economic development and reducing disaster losses. Based on risk assessment theory, this paper uses coastal hydrological observations, a numerical storm surge model and multi-source remote sensing data, proposes methods for valuing hazard and vulnerability for storm surge and builds a storm surge risk assessment model. Storm surges in different recurrence periods are simulated in numerical models and the flooding areas and depth are calculated, which are used for assessing the hazard of storm surge; remote sensing data and GIS technology are used for extraction of coastal key objects and classification of coastal land use are identified, which is used for vulnerability assessment of storm surge disaster. The storm surge risk assessment model is applied for a typical coastal city, and the result shows the reliability and validity of the risk assessment model. The building and application of storm surge risk assessment model provides some basis reference for the city development plan and strengthens disaster prevention and mitigation.

Vulnerability of Population and Transportation Infrastructure at the East Bank of Delaware Bay Due to Coastal Flooding in Sea-Level Rise Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-30

resulting impact on residents and transportation infrastructure. The three-dimensional coastal ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional...shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine-resolution meshes, and a topography-based hydrologic... ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine

Health Effects of Coastal Storms and Flooding in Urban Areas: A Review and Vulnerability Assessment

PubMed Central

Charles-Guzman, Kizzy; Matte, Thomas

2013-01-01

Coastal storms can take a devastating toll on the public's health. Urban areas like New York City (NYC) may be particularly at risk, given their dense population, reliance on transportation, energy infrastructure that is vulnerable to flood damage, and high-rise residential housing, which may be hard-hit by power and utility outages. Climate change will exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Sea levels are rising due to global warming, which will intensify storm surge. These projections make preparing for the health impacts of storms even more important. We conducted a broad review of the health impacts of US coastal storms to inform climate adaptation planning efforts, with a focus on outcomes relevant to NYC and urban coastal areas, and incorporated some lessons learned from recent experience with Superstorm Sandy. Based on the literature, indicators of health vulnerability were selected and mapped within NYC neighborhoods. Preparing for the broad range of anticipated effects of coastal storms and floods may help reduce the public health burden from these events. PMID:23818911

Health effects of coastal storms and flooding in urban areas: a review and vulnerability assessment.

PubMed

Lane, Kathryn; Charles-Guzman, Kizzy; Wheeler, Katherine; Abid, Zaynah; Graber, Nathan; Matte, Thomas

2013-01-01

Coastal storms can take a devastating toll on the public's health. Urban areas like New York City (NYC) may be particularly at risk, given their dense population, reliance on transportation, energy infrastructure that is vulnerable to flood damage, and high-rise residential housing, which may be hard-hit by power and utility outages. Climate change will exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Sea levels are rising due to global warming, which will intensify storm surge. These projections make preparing for the health impacts of storms even more important. We conducted a broad review of the health impacts of US coastal storms to inform climate adaptation planning efforts, with a focus on outcomes relevant to NYC and urban coastal areas, and incorporated some lessons learned from recent experience with Superstorm Sandy. Based on the literature, indicators of health vulnerability were selected and mapped within NYC neighborhoods. Preparing for the broad range of anticipated effects of coastal storms and floods may help reduce the public health burden from these events.

Evaluating Social and Ecological Vulnerability of Coral Reef Fisheries to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Cinner, Joshua E.; Huchery, Cindy; Darling, Emily S.; Humphries, Austin T.; Graham, Nicholas A. J.; Hicks, Christina C.; Marshall, Nadine; McClanahan, Tim R.

2013-01-01

There is an increasing need to evaluate the links between the social and ecological dimensions of human vulnerability to climate change. We use an empirical case study of 12 coastal communities and associated coral reefs in Kenya to assess and compare five key ecological and social components of the vulnerability of coastal social-ecological systems to temperature induced coral mortality [specifically: 1) environmental exposure; 2) ecological sensitivity; 3) ecological recovery potential; 4) social sensitivity; and 5) social adaptive capacity]. We examined whether ecological components of vulnerability varied between government operated no-take marine reserves, community-based reserves, and openly fished areas. Overall, fished sites were marginally more vulnerable than community-based and government marine reserves. Social sensitivity was indicated by the occupational composition of each community, including the importance of fishing relative to other occupations, as well as the susceptibility of different fishing gears to the effects of coral bleaching on target fish species. Key components of social adaptive capacity varied considerably between the communities. Together, these results show that different communities have relative strengths and weaknesses in terms of social-ecological vulnerability to climate change. PMID:24040228

Coastal vulnerability assessment using Fuzzy Logic and Bayesian Belief Network approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valentini, Emiliana; Nguyen Xuan, Alessandra; Filipponi, Federico; Taramelli, Andrea

2017-04-01

Natural hazards such as sea surge are threatening low-lying coastal plains. In order to deal with disturbances a deeper understanding of benefits deriving from ecosystem services assessment, management and planning can contribute to enhance the resilience of coastal systems. In this frame assessing current and future vulnerability is a key concern of many Systems Of Systems SOS (social, ecological, institutional) that deals with several challenges like the definition of Essential Variables (EVs) able to synthesize the required information, the assignment of different weight to be attributed to each considered variable, the selection of method for combining the relevant variables. It is widely recognized that ecosystems contribute to human wellbeing and then their conservation increases the resilience capacities and could play a key role in reducing climate related risk and thus physical and economic losses. A way to fully exploit ecosystems potential, i.e. their so called ecopotential (see H2020 EU funded project "ECOPOTENTIAL"), is the Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA): the use of ecosystem services as part of an adaptation strategy. In order to provide insight in understanding regulating ecosystem services to surge and which variables influence them and to make the best use of available data and information (EO products, in situ data and modelling), we propose a multi-component surge vulnerability assessment, focusing on coastal sandy dunes as natural barriers. The aim is to combine together eco-geomorphological and socio-economic variables with the hazard component on the base of different approaches: 1) Fuzzy Logic; 2) Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). The Fuzzy Logic approach is very useful to get a spatialized information and it can easily combine variables coming from different sources. It provides information on vulnerability moving along-shore and across-shore (beach-dune transect), highlighting the variability of vulnerability conditions in the spatial dimension. According to the results using fuzzy operators, the analysis greatest weakness is the limited capacity to represent the relation among the different considered variables. The BBN approach, based on the definition of conditional probabilities, has allowed determining the trend of distributions of vulnerability along-shore, highlighting which parts of the coast are most likely to have higher or lower vulnerability than others. In BBN analysis, the greatest weakness emerge in the case of arbitrary definition of conditional probabilities (i.e. when there is a lack of information on the past hazardous events) because it is not possible to derive the individual contribution of each variable. As conclusion, the two approaches could be used together in the perspective of enhancing the multiple components in vulnerability assessment: the BBN as a preliminary assessment to provide a coarse description of the vulnerability distribution, and the Fuzzy Logic as an extended assessment to provide more space based information.

Determining Coastal Hazards Risk Perception to Enhance Local Mitigation Planning through a Participatory Mapping Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bethel, M.; Braud, D.; Lambeth, T.; Biber, P.; Wu, W.

2017-12-01

Coastal community leaders, government officials, and natural resource managers must be able to accurately assess and predict a given coastal landscape's sustainability and/or vulnerability as coastal habitat continues to undergo rapid and dramatic changes associated with natural and anthropogenic activities such as accelerated relative sea level rise (SLR). To help address this information need, a multi-disciplinary project team conducted Sea Grant sponsored research in Louisiana and Mississippi with traditional ecosystem users and natural resource managers to determine a method for producing localized vulnerability and sustainability maps for projected SLR and storm surge impacts, and determine how and whether the results of such an approach can provide more useful information to enhance hazard mitigation planning. The goals of the project are to develop and refine SLR visualization tools for local implementation in areas experiencing subsidence and erosion, and discover the different ways stakeholder groups evaluate risk and plan mitigation strategies associated with projected SLR and storm surge. Results from physical information derived from data and modeling of subsidence, erosion, engineered restoration and coastal protection features, historical land loss, and future land projections under SLR are integrated with complimentary traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) offered by the collaborating local ecosystem users for these assessments. The data analysis involves interviewing stakeholders, coding the interviews for themes, and then converting the themes into vulnerability and sustainability factors. Each factor is weighted according to emphasis by the TEK experts and number of experts who mention it to determine which factors are the highest priority. The priority factors are then mapped with emphasis on the perception of contributing to local community vulnerability or sustainability to SLR and storm surge. The maps are used by the collaborators to benefit local hazard mitigation and adaptation planning. The results to date in achieving the project objectives will be presented that include: analyses of scientific field data collected related to marsh vegetation biomass characteristics, analyses of TEK data collected, and mapping products developed.

Quantifying and Projecting Relative Sea-Level Rise At The Regional Scale: The Bangladesh Sea-Level Project (BanD-AID)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shum, C. K.; Kuo, C. Y.; Guo, J.; Shang, K.; Tseng, K. H.; Wan, J.; Calmant, S.; Ballu, V.; Valty, P.; Kusche, J.; Hossain, F.; Khan, Z. H.; Rietbroek, R.; Uebbing, B.

2014-12-01

The potential for accelerated sea-level rise under anthropogenic warming is a significant societal problem, in particular in world's coastal deltaic regions where about half of the world's population resides. Quantifying geophysical sources of sea-level rise with the goal of improved projection at local scales remains a complex and challenging interdisciplinary research problem. These processes include ice-sheet/glacier ablations, steric sea-level, solid Earth uplift or subsidence due to GIA, tectonics, sediment loading or anthropogenic causes, hydrologic imbalance, and human processes including water retention in reservoirs and aquifer extraction. The 2013 IPCC AR5 concluded that the observed and explained geophysical causes of global geocentric sea-level rise, 1993-2010, is closer towards closure. However, the discrepancy reveals that circa 1.3→37.5% of the observed sea-level rise remains unexplained. This relatively large discrepancy is primarily attributable to the wide range of estimates of respective contributions of Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets and mountain/peripheral glaciers to sea-level rise. Understanding and quantifying the natural and anthropogenic processes governing solid Earth (land, islands and sea-floor) uplift or subsidence at the regional and local scales remain elusive to enable addressing coastal vulnerability due to relative sea-level rise hazards, such as the Bangladesh Delta. This study focuses on addressing coastal vulnerability of Bangladesh, a Belmont Forum/IGFA project, BanD-AID (http://Belmont-SeaLevel.org). Sea-level rise, along with tectonic, sediment load and groundwater extraction induced land uplift/subsidence, have exacerbated Bangladesh's coastal vulnerability, affecting 150 million people in one of the world's most densely populated regions. Here we present preliminary results using space geodetic observations, including satellite radar and laser altimetry, GRACE gravity, tide gauge, hydrographic, and GPS/InSAR observed land subsidence, and via fingerprint sea-level adjustment and reconstructed sea-level approaches, for improved quantification of major contributions to, and the projection of relative sea-level rise at the Bangladesh delta, towards addressing its coastal vulnerability and sustainability.

Climate change and marine fisheries: Least developed countries top global index of vulnerability

PubMed Central

Blasiak, Robert; Spijkers, Jessica; Tokunaga, Kanae; Pittman, Jeremy; Yagi, Nobuyuki; Österblom, Henrik

2017-01-01

Future impacts of climate change on marine fisheries have the potential to negatively influence a wide range of socio-economic factors, including food security, livelihoods and public health, and even to reshape development trajectories and spark transboundary conflict. Yet there is considerable variability in the vulnerability of countries around the world to these effects. We calculate a vulnerability index of 147 countries by drawing on the most recent data related to the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries. Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework for vulnerability, we first construct aggregate indices for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity using 12 primary variables. Seven out of the ten most vulnerable countries on the resulting index are Small Island Developing States, and the top quartile of the index includes countries located in Africa (17), Asia (7), North America and the Caribbean (4) and Oceania (8). More than 87% of least developed countries are found within the top half of the vulnerability index, while the bottom half includes all but one of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development member states. This is primarily due to the tremendous variation in countries’ adaptive capacity, as no such trends are evident from the exposure or sensitivity indices. A negative correlation exists between vulnerability and per capita carbon emissions, and the clustering of states at different levels of development across the vulnerability index suggests growing barriers to meeting global commitments to reducing inequality, promoting human well-being and ensuring sustainable cities and communities. The index provides a useful tool for prioritizing the allocation of climate finance, as well as activities aimed at capacity building and the transfer of marine technology. PMID:28632781

Tropical cyclone track Analysis over Indian Coast Using Spatio-Temporal data-mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohapatra, Gyanendranath; Manjunath, Swetha; Behera, Sasmita; Mohanty, Pratap Kumar

2015-04-01

Tropical cyclones are a natural hazard which largely affects the lives and property with its destructive wind and heavy rainfall. Fluctuations in the frequency and intensity complicate the detection of long-term trends and play an important role in the global climate system; therefore understanding and predicting tropical cyclones track, intensity, and landfall location is of both societal and scientific significance. In this study a data-mining approach is being used to analyze the tropical cyclone track both in the temporal and spatial scale. Basically, the Indian coast line is divided into four zones viz. north east, south east in the eastern side adjoining Bay of Bengal and North west and south west in the western side adjoining Arabian sea as these coastal areas are very much vulnerable for disaster due to maximum number of landfall of Tropical Cyclones. The track and landfall associated with all the cyclones are clustered based on their intensity (Severe, moderate and low) and landfall location. The analyses are carried out for landfall location and the extent of track separately for the events happening in two seasons i.e. pre-monsoon and post-monsoon period. Along with categorization of intensity, trend analysis of track and the targeted zone of maximum damage also been studied. Algorithms are being developed for potential resilient and impact assessment of the parameters associated with cyclone disaster in the coastal region of India. One of the important objectives of this present work is also the identification of most disaster prone coastal area and becoming a part of the information support system during the cyclone period. Based on the statistics like mean, Standard Deviation, regression and correlation analysis, an index is developed which determines the level of damage and vulnerability along the coastal region. This index can be used for the early warning system of particular coastal areas for the preparedness and mitigation of future cyclone events.

Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnard, Patrick L.; Short, Andrew D.; Harley, Mitchell D.; Splinter, Kristen D.; Vitousek, Sean; Turner, Ian L.; Allan, Jonathan; Banno, Masayuki; Bryan, Karin R.; Doria, André; Hansen, Jeff E.; Kato, Shigeru; Kuriyama, Yoshiaki; Randall-Goodwin, Evan; Ruggiero, Peter; Walker, Ian J.; Heathfield, Derek K.

2015-01-01

To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise.

A Comprehensive evaluation of groundwater vulnerability to saltwater up-coning and sea water intrusion in a coastal aquifer (case study: Ghaemshahr-juybar aquifer)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motevalli, Alireza; Moradi, Hamid Reza; Javadi, Saman

2018-02-01

Aquifer salinization has recently increased significantly due to human activity and has caused irreparable environmental and economic effects. In this research, a new method is proposed for modeling the vulnerability to salinity for the Ghaemshahr-juybar aquifer. Specifically, the GALDIT (Sea water intrusion) and TAWLBIC (Saltwater up-coning) indices were combined to produce a map of vulnerability (Comprehensive Salinity Index or CSI) to seawater intrusion of a region near the coast and saltwater up-coning away from the coast, respectively. Single parameter and removal layer sensitivity analysis were performed in order to identify the sensitive parameters and achieve optimal weights (through the single-parameter method) of contributing factors in all three methods. The three optimized methods produced were GALDIT-Opt, TAWLBIC-Opt and CSI-Opt. To assess the accuracy of the original maps and optimal ones, the Pearson correlation was used. Results indicated that the Pearson correlation of the optimized GALDIT, TAWLBIC and CSI model was better than GALDIT, TAWLBIC and CSI. The results show that the increase in correlation between EC (Electrical Conductivity), TDS (Total Dissolved Solids) and SAR (Sodium Adsorption Ratio) from the GALDIT model to the CSI-Opt model from values of 0.64, 0.56 and 0.68 has improved to values of 0.81, 0.88 and 0.91, respectively. The highest concentration of EC, with a value of 7050 μs/cm, is sampled in the areas of the east and northwest of the Ghaemshahr-juybar aquifer, which are classified in the CSI-Opt model as high and very high vulnerability levels. The highest concentration of TDS and SAR has been found in the east, northwest and northeast of the Ghaemshahr-juybar aquifer with a value of 4724 ppm for TDS and 14 mg/l for SAR that have been modeled in the CSI-Opt index as highly vulnerable areas. Eventually, CSI mapping can be used as an efficient tool in prioritizing in terms of the vulnerability to aquifer salinity, carrying out adjustments, recharge, and adaptation policies for this issue.

Monitoring Coastal Embankment Subsidence and Relative Sea Level Rise in Coastal Bangladesh Using Satellite Geodetic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Q.; Shum, C. K.; Jia, Y.; Yi, Y.; Zhu, K.; Kuo, C. Y.; Liibusk, A.

2015-12-01

The Bangladesh Delta is located at the confluence of the mega Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghan Rivers in the Bay of Bengal. It is home to over 160 million people and is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. It is prone to seasonal transboundary monsoonal flooding, potentially aggravated by more frequent and intensified cyclones resulting from anthropogenic climate change. Sea level rise, along with tectonic, sediment compaction/load and groundwater extraction induced land uplift/subsidence, have significantly exacerbated these risks and Bangladesh's coastal vulnerability. Bangladesh has built 123 coastal embankments or polders since the 1960's, to protect the coastal regions from cyclone/tidal flooding and to reduce salinity incursions. Since then, many coastal polders have suffered severe erosion and anthropogenic damage, and require repairs or rebuilding. However, the physical and anthropogenic processes governing the historic relative sea level rise and its future projection towards its quantification remain poorly understood or known, and at present not accurate enough or with an adequately fine local spatial scale for practical mitigation of coastal vulnerability or coastal resilience studies. This study reports on our work in progress to use satellite geodetic and remote sensing observations, including satellite radar altimetry/backscatter measurements over land and in coastal oceans, optical/infrared imageries, and SAR backscatter/InSAR data, to study the feasibility of coastal embankment/polder erosion monitoring, quantify seasonal polder water intrusions, observing polder subsidence, and finally, towards the goal of improving the relative sea level rise hazards assessment at the local scale in coastal Bangladesh.

Coastal vulnerability and the implications of sea level rise between the cities of Pescara and Ortona (Adriatic Sea - Central Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarragoni, C.; Bellotti, P.; Caputo, C.; Davoli, L.; Evangelista, S.; Pugliese, F.; Raffi, R.; Lupia Palmieri, E.

2012-04-01

Geomorphic processes induce rapid environmental changes especially along the coast that is highly susceptible to them. In addiction, the effects of storm or wave may be amplified by the expected relative sea level rise. In a context, like Italian coast, where the almost part of coast is densely populated and many infrastructures are presents, it is very important to have adequate tools to urban planning like the coastal vulnerability map. In this study the preliminary results of the ongoing SECOA project (Solution for Environmental contrasts in COastal Areas; 7th Framework Program) are presented, with reference to the Adriatic coast between Pescara and Ortona cities, in the Abruzzo region. In this work the same analytical model applied in the Venice Lagoon has been employed (Fontolan, 2001; 2005) involving the evaluation of the effective vulnerability (Ve). Ve is calculated as the difference between the potential vulnerability (Vp) and the defence elements present along the coast (D). (Ve = Vp - D) The data used to measure quantitative features are: high-resolution DEM (LiDAR), satellite images, aero photos, bathymetric profiles and topographic maps. The variables that contribute to the evaluation are: beach amplitude, berm height, seafloor gradient, seafloor evolution, recent and historical shorelines evolution for Vp; height, slope, vegetation cover, presence of passages, incipient dunes and windbreak barriers for the dune and anthropic barriers height. In this context, the potential vulnerability results from the sum of each variable (Vn) per the relative efficacy coefficient (Kn): Vp = V1K1+V2K2+ …VnKn In the same way the defences result from the sum of each kind of defence per the relative efficacy coefficient: D = D1K1+ …. DnKn The coastal area between Pescara and Ortona cities has been segmented in different sectors characterized by homogeneous values of the considered variables and for each of these the Ve values have been calculated and referred to one of the five corresponding standard vulnerability classes. In long-term vulnerability analyses (year 2100) the following aspects have been taken into account: sea level rise expected according to the IPCC and Rahmstorf hypothesis, local tectonic movement (compaction and sedimentary load) and local vertical movement due to isostasy. The height of defences have been decreased of relative sea level rise value and the efficacy coefficients have been modified according to the different long-term weight of morphological and morphodynamics variables. A coastal vulnerability map has been drawn both for the short-term (present day) and long-term; the vulnerability classes values have been represented by different colours from green to red respectively from lowest to highest values. In conclusion, the short-term results show Ve values belonging to the lowest class due to the considerable presence of the defence works, even if Vp values falling in the medium and medium-low classes. Similar results are obtained from the long-term analysis in the case of both the IPCC and Rahmstorf hypothesis, further evidencing the overwhelming employment of defence structures.

The drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhiqiang; Jiang, Jingyi; Ma, Qing

2016-12-01

Climate change is affecting every aspect of human activities, especially the agriculture. In China, extreme drought events caused by climate change have posed a great threat to food safety. In this work we aimed to study the drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment. The physical vulnerability curve was constructed from the relationship between drought hazard intensity index and yield loss rate. The risk assessment of agricultural drought was conducted from the drought hazard intensity index and physical vulnerability curve. The probability distribution of drought hazard intensity index decreased from south-west to north-east and increased from south-east to north-west along the rainfall isoline. The physical vulnerability curve had a reduction effect in three parts of the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China, which helped to reduce drought hazard vulnerability on spring maize. The risk of yield loss ratio calculated based on physical vulnerability curve was lower compared with the drought hazard intensity index, which suggested that the capacity of spring maize to resist and adapt to drought is increasing. In conclusion, the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China is greatly sensitive to climate change and has a high probability of severe drought hazard. Risk assessment of physical vulnerability can help better understand the physical vulnerability to agricultural drought and can also promote measurements to adapt to climate change.

BIVALVE BIOGEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS, ABUNDANCES, AND CLIMATE VULNERABILITY FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA

EPA Science Inventory

As part of an U.S. EPA/USGS project to predict the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to climate change along the Pacific Coast, we have synthesized the biogeographic distributions and abundances of bivalves found in depths <200 m. We have included the twelve &ldqu...

Assessing biomass of diverse coastal marsh ecosystems using statistical and machine learning models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Yu; Kearney, Michael S.; Riter, J. C. Alexis; Zhao, Feng; Tilley, David R.

2018-06-01

The importance and vulnerability of coastal marshes necessitate effective ways to closely monitor them. Optical remote sensing is a powerful tool for this task, yet its application to diverse coastal marsh ecosystems consisting of different marsh types is limited. This study samples spectral and biophysical data from freshwater, intermediate, brackish, and saline marshes in Louisiana, and develops statistical and machine learning models to assess the marshes' biomass with combined ground, airborne, and spaceborne remote sensing data. It is found that linear models derived from NDVI and EVI are most favorable for assessing Leaf Area Index (LAI) using multispectral data (R2 = 0.7 and 0.67, respectively), and the random forest models are most useful in retrieving LAI and Aboveground Green Biomass (AGB) using hyperspectral data (R2 = 0.91 and 0.84, respectively). It is also found that marsh type and plant species significantly impact the linear model development (P < .05 in both cases). Sensors with coarser spatial resolution yield lower LAI values because the fine water networks are not detected and mixed into the vegetation pixels. The Landsat OLI-derived map shows the LAI of coastal mashes in Louisiana mostly ranges from 0 to 5.0, and is highest for freshwater marshes and for marshes in the Atchafalaya Bay delta. The CASI-derived maps show that LAI of saline marshes at Bay Batiste typically ranges from 0.9 to 1.5, and the AGB is mostly less than 900 g/m2. This study provides solutions for assessing the biomass of Louisiana's coastal marshes using various optical remote sensing techniques, and highlights the impacts of the marshes' species composition on the model development and the sensors' spatial resolution on biomass mapping, thereby providing useful tools for monitoring the biomass of coastal marshes in Louisiana and diverse coastal marsh ecosystems elsewhere.

Potential Hydrodynamic Loads on Coastal Bridges in the Greater New York Area due to Extreme Storm Surge and Wave

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-04-18

This project makes a computer modeling study on vulnerability of coastal bridges in New York City (NYC) metropolitan region to storm surges and waves. Prediction is made for potential surges and waves in the region and consequent hydrodynamic load an...

EMBATTLED BIVALVES: BIOGEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS AND ABUNDANCES FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA

EPA Science Inventory

As part of an EPA/USGS project to predict the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to climate change, we have synthesized in a web-based tool, the Coastal Biogeographic Risk Analysis Tool (CBRAT), the biogeographic distributions and abundances of bivalves, found in dept...

Trait-based framework to predict relative vulnerability of near-coastal species and habitats to climate change

EPA Science Inventory

Like Icarus, near-coastal species are “flying too close” to the sun, and are being impacted by climate-induced changes in air and ocean temperature, precipitation, salinity, ocean pH, and sea level rise. Sound management requires knowledge of what species and habitats...

Marine water quality under climate change conditions/scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Brigolin, Daniele; Carniel, Sandro; Pastres, Roberto; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The increase of sea temperature and the changes in marine currents are generating impacts on coastal waters such as changes in water biogeochemical and physical parameters (e.g. primary production, pH, salinity) leading to progressive degradation of the marine environment. With the main aim of analysing the potential impacts of climate change on coastal water quality, a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed and applied to coastal marine waters of the North Adriatic (i.e. coastal water bodies of the Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia regions, Italy). RRA integrates the outputs of regional models providing information on macronutrients (i.e. dissolved inorganic nitrogen e reactive phosphorus), dissolved oxygen, pH, salinity and temperature, etc., under future climate change scenarios with site-specific environmental and socio-economic indicators (e.g. biotic index, presence and extension of seagrasses, presence of aquaculture). The presented approach uses Geographic Information Systems to manage, analyse, and visualize data and employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the integration of stakeholders preferences and experts judgments into the evaluation process. RRA outputs are hazard, exposure, vulnerability, risk and damage maps useful for the identification and prioritization of hot-spot areas and vulnerable targets in the considered region. Therefore, the main aim of this contribution is to apply the RRA methodology to integrate, visualize, and rank according to spatial distribution, physical and chemical data concerning the coastal waters of the North Adriatic Sea in order to predict possible changes of the actual water quality.

Saltwater Intrusion: Climate change mitigation or just water resources management?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferguson, G. A.; Gleeson, T.

2011-12-01

Climate change and population growth are expected to substantially increase the vulnerability of global water resources throughout the 21st century. Coastal groundwater systems are a nexus of the world's changing oceanic and hydrologic systems and a critical resource for the over one billion people living in coastal areas as well as for terrestrial and offshore ecosystems. Synthesis studies and detailed simulations predict that rising sea levels could negatively impact coastal aquifers by causing saltwater to intrude landward within coastal aquifers or by saltwater inundation of coastal regions. Saltwater intrusion caused by excessive extraction is already impacting entire island nations and globally in diverse regions such as Nile River delta in Egypt, Queensland, Australia and Long Island, USA. However, the vulnerability of coastal aquifers to sea level rise and excessive extraction has not been systematically compared. Here we show that coastal aquifers are much more vulnerable to groundwater extraction than predicted sea level rise in wide-ranging hydrogeologic conditions and population densities. Low lying areas with small hydraulic gradients are more sensitive to climate change but a review of existing coastal aquifer indicates that saltwater intrusion problems are more likely to arise where water demand is high. No cases studies were found linking saltwater intrusion to sea level rise during the past century. Humans are a key driver in the hydrology of coastal aquifers and that adapting to sea level rise at the expense of better water management is misguided.

TRAIT-BASED FRAMEWORK TO PREDICTING RELATIVE VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN NEAR-COASTAL SPECIES AND HABITAT

EPA Science Inventory

Like Icarus, near-coastal species are “flying too close” to the sun, and are being impacted by climate-induced changes in air and ocean temperature, precipitation, salinity, ocean pH, sea level rise, and nonindigenous species. Sound management requires knowledge of wh...

Losses Assessment of Crops due to Typhoon Disaster in China Coastal Areas —— A Case Study of Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, W.; Fang, W.

2015-12-01

Vulnerability which quantifies the loss ratio under different hazard intensity is an important feature of the natural disaster system and has important significance to natural disaster risk assessment. Agriculture is an outdoor industry with high risk of meteorological disasters. The strong winds, heavy rain and storm surge are main typhoon hazard factors to crops. To provide a quantitative research method for the loss evaluation of crops due to typhoon disaster we first revised two vulnerability curves for crops under comprehensive intensity of typhoon based on the simulated hazard data and loss data related to historical typhoon events landing on China from 1949 to 2014；and then established a storm surge vulnerability matrix of crops regarding Zhanjiang City of Guangdong Province as the study area ; finally, we put forward three storm surge fragility curves for crops representing different states of loss. The results can effectively describe the typhoon vulnerability for crops in China coastal areas so as to provide the input to post-disaster loss assessments and catastrophe modeling applications.

Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Costanza, Jennifer

2016-08-11

Two recent investigations of climate-change vulnerability for 19 terrestrial, aquatic, riparian, and coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States have identified a number of important considerations, including potential for changes in hydrology, disturbance regimes, and interspecies interactions. Complementary approaches using geospatial analysis and literature synthesis integrated information on ecosystem biogeography and biodiversity, climate projections, vegetation dynamics, soil and water characteristics, anthropogenic threats, conservation status, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding impacts. Across a diverse set of ecosystems—ranging in size from dozens of square meters to thousands of square kilometers—quantitative and qualitative assessments identified types of climate-change exposure, evaluated sensitivity, and explored potential adaptive capacity. These analyses highlighted key gaps in scientific understanding and suggested priorities for future research. Together, these studies help create a foundation for ecosystem-level analysis of climate-change vulnerability to support effective biodiversity conservation in the southeastern United States.

Barrier-island and estuarine-wetland physical-change assessment after Hurricane Sandy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Smith, Kathryn E.L.; Passeri, Davina L.; Smith, Christopher G.; Bernier, Julie C.

2018-04-03

IntroductionThe Nation’s eastern coast is fringed by beaches, dunes, barrier islands, wetlands, and bluffs. These natural coastal barriers provide critical benefits and services, and can mitigate the impact of storms, erosion, and sea-level rise on our coastal communities. Waves and storm surge resulting from Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall along the New Jersey coast on October 29, 2012, impacted the U.S. coastline from North Carolina to Massachusetts, including Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia, and the Delmarva coastal system. The storm impacts included changes in topography, coastal morphology, geology, hydrology, environmental quality, and ecosystems.In the immediate aftermath of the storm, light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys from North Carolina to New York documented storm impacts to coastal barriers, providing a baseline to assess vulnerability of the reconfigured coast. The focus of much of the existing coastal change assessment is along the ocean-facing coastline; however, much of the coastline affected by Hurricane Sandy includes the estuarine-facing coastlines of barrier-island systems. Specifically, the wetland and back-barrier shorelines experienced substantial change as a result of wave action and storm surge that occurred during Hurricane Sandy (see also USGS photograph, http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/sandy/photo-comparisons/virginia.php). Assessing physical shoreline and wetland change (land loss as well as land gains) can help to determine the resiliency of wetland systems that protect adjacent habitat, shorelines, and communities.To address storm impacts to wetlands, a vulnerability assessment should describe both long-term (for example, several decades) and short-term (for example, Sandy’s landfall) extent and character of the interior wetlands and the back-barrier-shoreline changes. The objective of this report is to describe several new wetland vulnerability assessments based on the detailed physical changes estimated from observations. The scope includes understanding changes caused by both short- and long-term processes using both remotely sensed and in situ observations to characterize changes to the wetland in terms of accretion/expansion and erosion/contraction. Accretion may be due to net vertical and (or) horizontal deposition, including estuarine-shoreline change due to overwash. Wetland erosion may be due to elevated waves and water levels in the estuary itself. We included additional information based on wave runup and storm-surge elevations based on models and elevation data. We then developed a predictive assessment for wetland vulnerability that describes the likelihood of changes of the estuarine shoreline and the landward extent of sand overwash driven by processes occurring on the ocean-facing shoreline. This assessment is intended to be linked to the beach and dune vulnerability assessments that have been developed previously.

Development of an Impact-Oriented Quantitative Coastal Inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fakhruddin, S. H. M.; Babel, Mukand S.; Kawasaki, Akiyuki

2014-05-01

Coastal inundations are an increasing threat to the lives and livelihoods of people living in low-lying, highly-populated coastal areas. According to a World Bank Report in 2005, at least 2.6 million people may have drowned due to coastal inundation, particularly caused by storm surges, over the last 200 years. Forecasting and prediction of natural events, such as tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, inland flooding, and severe winter weather, provide critical guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers from the local to the national level, with the goal of minimizing both human and economic losses. This guidance is used to facilitate evacuation route planning, post-disaster response and resource deployment, and critical infrastructure protection and securing, and it must be available within a time window in which decision makers can take appropriate action. Recognizing this extreme vulnerability of coastal areas to inundation/flooding, and with a view to improve safety-related services for the community, research should strongly enhance today's forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities in order to improve the assessment of coastal vulnerability and risks and develop adequate prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. This paper tries to develop an impact-oriented quantitative coastal inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment to address the challenges faced by coastal communities to enhance their safety and to support sustainable development, through the improvement of coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems.

Development and assessment of indices to determine stream fish vulnerability to climate change and habitat alteration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sievert, Nicholas A.; Paukert, Craig P.; Tsang, Yin-Phan; Infante, Dana M.

2016-01-01

Understanding the future impacts of climate and land use change are critical for long-term biodiversity conservation. We developed and compared two indices to assess the vulnerability of stream fish in Missouri, USA based on species environmental tolerances, rarity, range size, dispersal ability and on the average connectivity of the streams occupied by each species. These two indices differed in how environmental tolerance was classified (i.e., vulnerability to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and changes to flow regimes). Environmental tolerance was classified based on measured species responses to habitat alteration, and extremes in stream temperatures and flow conditions for one index, while environmental tolerance for the second index was based on species’ traits. The indices were compared to determine if vulnerability scores differed by index or state listing status. We also evaluated the spatial distribution of species classified as vulnerable to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and change in flow regimes. Vulnerability scores were calculated for all 133 species with the trait association index, while only 101 species were evaluated using the species response index, because 32 species lacked data to analyze for a response. Scores from the trait association index were greater than the species response index. This is likely due to the species response index's inability to evaluate many rare species, which generally had high vulnerability scores for the trait association index. The indices were consistent in classifying vulnerability to habitat alteration, but varied in their classification of vulnerability due to increases in stream temperature and alterations to flow regimes, likely because extremes in current climate may not fully capture future conditions and their influence on stream fish communities. Both indices showed higher mean vulnerability scores for listed species than unlisted species, which provided a coarse measure of validation. Our indices classified species identified as being in need of conservation by the state of Missouri as highly vulnerable. The distribution of vulnerable species in Missouri showed consistent patterns between indices, with the more forest-dominated, groundwater fed streams in the Ozark subregion generally having higher numbers and proportions of vulnerable species per site than subregions that were agriculturally dominated with more overland flow. These results suggest that both indices will identify similar habitats as conservation action targets despite discrepancies in the classification of vulnerable species. Our vulnerability assessment provides a framework that can be refined and used in other regions.

A Coastal Hazards Data Base for the U.S. East Coast (1992) (NDP-043a)

DOE Data Explorer

Gornitz, Vivien M. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); White, Tammy W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

1992-01-01

This NDP presents data on coastal geology, geomorphology, elevation, erosion, wave heights, tide ranges, and sea levels for the U.S. east coast. These data may be used either by nongeographic database management systems or by raster or vector geographic information systems (GISs). The database integrates several data sets (originally obtained as point, line, and polygon data) for the east coast into 0.25°-latitude by 0.25°-longitude grid cells. Each coastal grid cell contains 28 data variables. This NDP may be used to predict the response of coastal zones on the U.S. east coast to changes in local or global sea levels. Information on the geologic, geomorphic, and erosional states of the coast provides the basic data needed to predict the behavior of the coastal zone into the far future. Thus, these data may be seen as providing a baseline for the calculation of the relative vulnerability of the east coast to projected sea-level rises. This data will also be useful to research, educational, governmental, and private organizations interested in the present and future vulnerability of coastal areas to erosion and inundation. The data are in 13 files, the largest of which is 1.42 MB; the entire data base takes up 3.29 MB, excluding the ARC/INFO^TM files.

Costal vulnerability systems-network using Fuzzy and Bayesian approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taramelli, A.; Valentini, E.; Filipponi, F.; Nguyen Xuan, A.; Arosio, M.

2016-12-01

Marine drivers such as surge in the context of SLR, are threatening low-lying coastal plains. In order to deal with disturbances a deeper understanding of benefits deriving from ecosystem services assesment, management and planning (e.g. the role of dune ridges in surge mitigation and climate adaptation) can enhance the resilience of coastal systems. In this frame assessing the vulnerability is a key concern of many SOS (social, ecological, institutional) that deals with several challenges like the definition of Essential Variables (EVs) able to synthesize the required information, the assignment of different weight to be attributed to each considered variable, the selection of method for combining the relevant variables, etc.. To this end it is unclear how SLR, subsidence and erosion might affect coastal subsistence resources because of highly complex interactions and because of the subjective system of weighting many variables and their interaction within the systems. In this contribution, making the best use of many EO products, in situ data and modelling, we propose a multidimensional surge vulnerability assessment that aims at combining together geophysical and socioeconomic variable on the base of different approaches: 1) Fuzzy Logic; 2) Bayesian approach. The final goal is providing insight in understanding how to quantify regulating ecosystem services.

Evaluation of Soil Vulnerability Index (SVI) for an intensively managed high desert irrigation district

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Soil Vulnerability Index (SVI) is an index created for the purpose of rapidly assigning risk categories for runoff and leaching at the field and watershed scale. The SVI was developed for cultivated agricultural lands in humid environments, and is now being evaluated for suitability in other mor...

Identification and prioritization of areas with high environmental risk in Mediterranean coastal areas: A flexible approach.

PubMed

Marignani, Michela; Bruschi, Daniele; Astiaso Garcia, Davide; Frondoni, Raffaella; Carli, Emanuela; Pinna, Maria Silvia; Cumo, Fabrizio; Gugliermetti, Franco; Saatkamp, Arne; Doxa, Aggeliki; Queller, Emi Martín; Chaieb, Mohamed; Bou Dagher-Kharrat, Magda; El Zein, Rana; El Jeitani, Sarah; Khater, Carla; Mansour, Sophie; Al-Shami, Anwar; Harik, Ghinwa; Alameddine, Ibrahim; El-Fadel, Mutasem; Blasi, Carlo

2017-07-15

Interdisciplinarity and transdisciplinarity are the cornerstone for the future management of coastal ecosystems with many vulnerability and hazard indexes developed for this purpose, especially in the engineering literature, but with limited studies that considered ecological implications within a risk assessment. Similarly, the concept of prioritization of sites has been widely examined in biodiversity conservation studies, but only recently as an instrument for territory management. Considering coastal plant diversity at the species and community levels, and their vulnerability to three main potential hazards threatening coastal areas (oil spills, Hazardous and Noxious Substances pollution, fragmentation of natural habitats), the objective of this paper is to define an easy-to-use approach to locate and prioritize the areas more susceptible to those stressors, in order to have a practical instrument for risk management in the ordinary and extra-ordinary management of the coastline. The procedure has been applied at pilot areas in four Mediterranean countries (Italy, France, Lebanon and Tunisia). This approach can provide policy planners, decision makers and local communities an easy-to-use instrument able to facilitate the implementation of the ICZM (Integrated Coastal Zone Management) process in their territory. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Freshwater Vulnerability to Nitrate Contamination as an Indicator of Sustainability and Resilience within the Water-Energy-Food Nexus of the California Coastal Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanus, L.; Geyer, G.; Gurdak, J. J.; Orencio, P. M.; Endo, A.; Taniguchi, M.

2014-12-01

The California Coastal Basin (CCB) aquifers are representative of many coastal aquifers that are vulnerable to nonpoint-source (NPS) contamination from intense agriculture and increased urbanization combined with historical groundwater use and overdraft conditions. Overdraft has led to seawater intrusion along parts of the central California coast, which negatively affects food production because of high salinity concentrations in groundwater used for irrigation. Recent drought conditions in California have led to an increased need to further understand freshwater sustainability and resilience within the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus. Assessing the vulnerability of NPS contamination in groundwater provides valuable information for optimal resource management and policy. Vulnerability models of nitrate contamination in the CCB were developed as one of many indicators to evaluate risk in terms of susceptibility of the physical environment at local and regional scales. Multivariate logistic regression models were developed to predict the probability of NPS nitrate contamination in recently recharged groundwater and to identify significant explanatory variables as controlling factors in the CCB. Different factors were found to be significant in the sub-regions of the CCB and issues of scale are important. For example, land use is scale dependent because of the difference in land management practices between the CCB sub-regions. However, dissolved oxygen concentrations in groundwater, farm fertilizer, and soil thickness are scale invariant because they are significant both regionally and sub-regionally. Thus, the vulnerability models for the CCB show that different explanatory variables are scale invariant. This finding has important implications for accurately quantifying linkages between vulnerability and consequences within the WEF nexus, including inherent tradeoffs in water and food production in California and associated impacts on the local and regional economy, governance, environment, and society at multiple scales.

Developing a Vulnerability Mapping Methodology: Applying the Water-Associated Disease Index to Dengue in Malaysia

PubMed Central

Dickin, Sarah K.; Schuster-Wallace, Corinne J.; Elliott, Susan J.

2013-01-01

The Water-associated Disease Index (WADI) was developed to identify and visualize vulnerability to different water-associated diseases by integrating a range of social and biophysical determinants in map format. In this study vulnerability is used to encompass conditions of exposure, susceptibility, and differential coping capacity to a water-associated health hazard. By assessing these conditions, the tool is designed to provide stakeholders with an integrated and long-term understanding of subnational vulnerabilities to water-associated disease and contribute to intervention strategies to reduce the burden of illness. The objective of this paper is to describe and validate the WADI tool by applying it to dengue. A systemic ecohealth framework that considers links between people, the environment and health was applied to identify secondary datasets, populating the index with components including climate conditions, land cover, education status and water use practices. Data were aggregated to create composite indicators of exposure and of susceptibility in a Geographic Information System (GIS). These indicators were weighted by their contribution to dengue vulnerability, and the output consisted of an overall index visualized in map format. The WADI was validated in this Malaysia case study, demonstrating a significant association with dengue rates at a sub-national level, and illustrating a range of factors that drive vulnerability to the disease within the country. The index output indicated high vulnerability to dengue in urban areas, especially in the capital Kuala Lumpur and surrounding region. However, in other regions, vulnerability to dengue varied throughout the year due to the influence of seasonal climate conditions, such as monsoon patterns. The WADI tool complements early warning models for water-associated disease by providing upstream information for planning prevention and control approaches, which increasingly require a comprehensive and geographically broad understanding of vulnerability for implementation. PMID:23667642

An Interactive Risk Detection Tool to Aid Decision-Making in Global Mangrove Restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, L.; Lagomasino, D.

2017-12-01

Mangrove ecosystems hold high ecological and economic value in coastal communities worldwide; detecting potential regions of mangrove stress is therefore critical to strategic planning of forest and coastal resources. In order to address the need for a unified risk management system for mangrove loss, a Risk Evaluation for MAngroves Portal (REMaP) was developed to identify the locations and causes of mangrove degradation worldwide, as well as project future areas of stress or loss. Long-term Earth observations from LANDSAT, MODIS, and TRMM were used in identifying regions with low, medium, and high vulnerability. Regions were categorized by vulnerability level based upon disturbance metrics in NDVI, land surface temperature, and precipitation using designated thresholds. Natural risks such as erosion and degradation were also evaluated through an analysis of NDVI time series trends from calendar year 1984 to 2017. Future trends in ecosystem vulnerability and resiliency were modeled using IPCC climate scenarios. Risk maps for anthropogenic-based disturbances such as urbanization and the expansion of agriculture and aquaculture through rice, rubber, shrimp, and oil palm farming were also included. The natural and anthropogenic risk factors evaluated were then aggregated to generate a cumulative estimate for total mangrove vulnerability in each region. This interactive modeling tool can aid decision-making on the regional, national, and international levels on an ongoing basis to continuously identify areas best suited for mangrove restoration measures, assisting governments and local communities in addressing a wide range of Sustainable Development Goals for coastal areas.

A Preliminary Tsunami vulnerability analysis for Bakirkoy district in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tufekci, Duygu; Lutfi Suzen, M.; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Zaytsev, Andrey

2016-04-01

Resilience of coastal utilities after earthquakes and tsunamis has major importance for efficient and proper rescue and recovery operations soon after the disasters. Vulnerability assessment of coastal areas under extreme events has major importance for preparedness and development of mitigation strategies. The Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquakes as well as associated tsunamis. There are variety of coastal facilities such as ports, small craft harbors, and terminals for maritime transportation, water front roads and business centers mainly at North Coast of Marmara Sea in megacity Istanbul. A detailed vulnerability analysis for Yenikapi region and a detailed resilience analysis for Haydarpasa port in Istanbul have been studied in previously by Cankaya et al., (2015) and Aytore et al., (2015) in SATREPS project. In this study, the methodology of vulnerability analysis under tsunami attack given in Cankaya et al., (2015) is modified and applied to Bakirkoy district of Istanbul. Bakirkoy district is located at western part of Istanbul and faces to the North Coast of Marmara Sea from 28.77oE to 28.89oE. High resolution spatial dataset of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) is used and analyzed. The bathymetry and topography database and the spatial dataset containing all buildings/structures/infrastructures in the district are collated and utilized for tsunami numerical modeling and following vulnerability analysis. The tsunami parameters from deterministically defined worst case scenarios are computed from the simulations using tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE. The vulnerability assessment parameters in the district according to vulnerability and resilience are defined; and scored by implementation of a GIS based TVA with appropriate MCDA methods. The risk level is computed using tsunami intensity (level of flow depth from simulations) and TVA results at every location in Bakirkoy district. The preliminary results are presented and discussed. Acknowledgements: Partial support by Japan-Turkey Joint Research Project by JICA on earthquakes and tsunamis in Marmara Region in (JICA SATREPS - MarDiM Project), 603839 ASTARTE Project of EU, UDAP-C-12-14 project of AFAD, Turkey, 108Y227, 113M556, 213M534 projects of TUBITAK Turkey, RAPSODI (CONCERT_Dis-021) of CONCERT-Japan Joint Call and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality are acknowledged.

Promoting Knowledge of Climate Change (CC) amongst Nigerians: Implications for Education Managers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akpomi, Margaret E.; Vipene, Joseph

2016-01-01

Rising sea levels, due to thermal expansion of the ocean, and higher frequency and intensity of coastal and inland storms threaten coastal communities worldwide. The implementation of pro-active, planned adaptation to reduce community vulnerability is strongly dependent upon people's awareness of the threat posed to their communities at the local…

Social, Environmental, and Health Vulnerability to Climate Change: The Case of the Municipalities of Minas Gerais, Brazil

PubMed Central

Brito, Isabela; Oliveira, Frederico; Madureira, Ana Paula

2017-01-01

Vulnerability to climate change is a complex and dynamic phenomenon involving both social and physical/environmental aspects. It is presented as a method for the quantification of the vulnerability of all municipalities of Minas Gerais, a state in southeastern Brazil. It is based on the aggregation of different kinds of environmental, climatic, social, institutional, and epidemiological variables, to form a composite index. This was named “Index of Human Vulnerability” and was calculated using a software (SisVuClima®) specifically developed for this purpose. Social, environmental, and health data were combined with the climatic scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, downscaled from ETA-HadGEM2-ES for each municipality. The Index of Human Vulnerability associated with the RCP 8.5 has shown a higher vulnerability for municipalities in the southern and eastern parts of the state of Minas Gerais. PMID:28465693

An Earth's Future Special Collection: Impacts of the coastal dynamics of sea level rise on low-gradient coastal landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kidwell, David M.; Dietrich, J. Casey; Hagen, Scott C.; Medeiros, Stephen C.

2017-01-01

Rising sea level represents a significant threat to coastal communities and ecosystems, including altered habitats and increased vulnerability to coastal storms and recurrent inundation. This threat is exemplified in the northern Gulf of Mexico, where low topography, marshes, and a prevalence of tropical storms have resulted in extensive coastal impacts. The ability to facilitate adaptation and mitigation measures relies, in part, on the development of robust predictive capabilities that incorporate complex biological processes with physical dynamics. Initiated in 2010, the 6-year Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise—Northern Gulf of Mexico project applied a transdisciplinary science approach to develop a suite of integrated modeling platforms informed by empirical data that are capable of evaluating a range of climate change scenarios. This special issue highlights resultant integrated models focused on tidal hydrodynamics, shoreline morphology, oyster ecology, coastal wetland vulnerability, and storm surges that demonstrate the need for dynamic models to incorporate feedbacks among physical and biological processes in assessments of sea level rise effects on coastal systems. Effects are projected to be significant, spatially variable and nonlinear relative to sea level rise rates. Scenarios of higher sea level rise rates are projected to exceed thresholds of wetland sustainability, and many regions will experience enhanced storm surges. Influenced by an extensive collaborative stakeholder engagement process, these assessments on the coastal dynamics of sea level rise provide a strong foundation for resilience measures in the northern Gulf of Mexico and a transferable approach for application to other coastal regions throughout the world.

Coastal Wetland Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change: the Role of Macroclimatic Drivers along the Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osland, M. J.; Enwright, N.; Day, R. H.; Gabler, C. A.; Stagg, C. L.; From, A. S.

2014-12-01

Across the globe, macroclimatic drivers greatly influence coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. However, changing macroclimatic conditions are rarely incorporated into coastal wetland vulnerability assessments. Here, we quantify the influence of macroclimatic drivers upon coastal wetland ecosystems along the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) coast. From a global perspective, the NGOM coast provides several excellent opportunities to examine the effects of climate change upon coastal wetlands. The abundant coastal wetland ecosystems in the region span two major climatic gradients: (1) a winter temperature gradient that crosses temperate to tropical climatic zones; and (2) a precipitation gradient that crosses humid to semi-arid zones. We present analyses where we used geospatial data (historical climate, hydrology, and coastal wetland coverage) and field data (soil, elevation, and plant community composition and structure) to quantify climate-mediated ecological transitions. We identified winter climate and precipitation-based thresholds that separate mangrove forests from salt marshes and vegetated wetlands from unvegetated wetlands, respectively. We used simple distribution and abundance models to evaluate the potential ecological effects of alternative future climate change scenarios. Our results illustrate and quantify the importance of macroclimatic drivers and indicate that climate change could result in landscape-scale changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. These macroclimate-mediated ecological changes could affect the supply of some ecosystem goods and services as well as the resilience of these ecosystems to stressors, including accelerated sea level rise. Collectively, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating macroclimatic drivers within future-focused coastal wetland vulnerability assessments.

A dynamic vulnerability evaluation model to smart grid for the emergency response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Zhen; Wu, Xiaowei; Fang, Diange

2018-01-01

Smart grid shows more significant vulnerability to natural disasters and external destroy. According to the influence characteristics of important facilities suffered from typical kinds of natural disaster and external destroy, this paper built a vulnerability evaluation index system of important facilities in smart grid based on eight typical natural disasters, including three levels of static and dynamic indicators, totally forty indicators. Then a smart grid vulnerability evaluation method was proposed based on the index system, including determining the value range of each index, classifying the evaluation grade standard and giving the evaluation process and integrated index calculation rules. Using the proposed evaluation model, it can identify the most vulnerable parts of smart grid, and then help adopting targeted emergency response measures, developing emergency plans and increasing its capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation, which guarantee its safe and stable operation.

Index-based groundwater vulnerability mapping models using hydrogeological settings: A critical evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, Prashant, E-mail: prashantkumar@csio.res.in; Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research—CSIO, Chandigarh 160030; Bansod, Baban K.S.

2015-02-15

Groundwater vulnerability maps are useful for decision making in land use planning and water resource management. This paper reviews the various groundwater vulnerability assessment models developed across the world. Each model has been evaluated in terms of its pros and cons and the environmental conditions of its application. The paper further discusses the validation techniques used for the generated vulnerability maps by various models. Implicit challenges associated with the development of the groundwater vulnerability assessment models have also been identified with scientific considerations to the parameter relations and their selections. - Highlights: • Various index-based groundwater vulnerability assessment models havemore » been discussed. • A comparative analysis of the models and its applicability in different hydrogeological settings has been discussed. • Research problems of underlying vulnerability assessment models are also reported in this review paper.« less

Novel method of vulnerability assessment of simple landfills area using the multimedia, multipathway and multireceptor risk assessment (3MRA) model, China.

PubMed

Yuan, Ying; He, Xiao-Song; Xi, Bei-Dou; Wei, Zi-Min; Tan, Wen-Bing; Gao, Ru-Tai

2016-11-01

Vulnerability assessment of simple landfills was conducted using the multimedia, multipathway and multireceptor risk assessment (3MRA) model for the first time in China. The minimum safe threshold of six contaminants (benzene, arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)], divalent mercury [Hg(II)] and divalent nickel [Ni(II)]) in landfill and waste pile models were calculated by the 3MRA model. Furthermore, the vulnerability indexes of the six contaminants were predicted based on the model calculation. The results showed that the order of health risk vulnerability index was As > Hg(II) > Cr(VI) > benzene > Cd > Ni(II) in the landfill model, whereas the ecology risk vulnerability index was in the order of As > Hg(II) > Cr(VI) > Cd > benzene > Ni(II). In the waste pile model, the order of health risk vulnerability index was benzene > Hg(II) > Cr(VI) > As > Cd and Ni(II), whereas the ecology risk vulnerability index was in the order of Hg(II) > Cd > Cr(VI) > As > benzene > Ni(II). These results indicated that As, Hg(II) and Cr(VI) were the high risk contaminants for the case of a simple landfill in China; the concentration of these in soil and groundwater around the simple landfill should be strictly monitored, and proper mediation is also recommended for simple landfills with a high concentration of contaminants. © The Author(s) 2016.

A Preliminary Vulnerability Assessment of Coastal Architectural and Archeological Resources in the Historic Strawbery Banke District of Portsmouth, New Hampshire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Routhier, M.; Curran, B.; Mulukutla, G. K.; Jefferson, M.; Hall, C. L.

2011-12-01

Over the course of the last 100 years the global (eustatic) mean sea level has increased at an average rate of 1 to 3 millimeters per year and is expected to further rise by at least 0.9m to 1.6m from 1990 to 2100 due to the effects of climate change. This fact will have profound impact on coastal communities because much of the world's population currently lives within Low Elevation Coastal Zones accounting for only 2% of continental land mass. This trend of populations to establish communities around coastal areas is not just a modern phenomenon. Throughout history people have created communities around coastal areas because they provided easy access to transportation, trade, and sustenance. Numerous historic sites around the world today can be identified as being coastal and thus susceptible to the effects of sea level rise. This is an important fact because these sites are linked to our cultural heritage, a legacy of cultural artifacts and knowledge which tie us to our past. To better understand the vulnerability of our coastal cultural heritage relative to the effects of climate change induced sea-level rise, we are in the process of developing a set of assessment protocols that will provide preservationists, archeologists, and policy-makers with the necessary information to begin developing adaption strategies for coastal sites of cultural significance locally, nationally, and internationally. With funding through the National Geographic Society Waitt Foundation, our preliminary research has focused on the historic Strawbery Banke area of Portsmouth, New Hampshire, a settlement which dates back to the 1600s. Through the use of historical research, topographic and hydrologic surveys, in conjunction with modern data, tools, analysis techniques, and 3D geographic information system models, a "proof of concept" assessment is being established. This assessment, that includes the dynamic interactions between tidal movements and storm surges relative to the additive effects of predicted sea level rise, will give us a better understanding of the vulnerability of our local cultural heritage. In understanding vulnerabilities locally, we wish to adapt our model to the other regions.

Vulnerability to climate variability and change in East Timor.

PubMed

Barnett, Jon; Dessai, Suraje; Jones, Roger N

2007-07-01

This paper presents the results of a preliminary study of climate vulnerability in East Timor. It shows the results of projections of climate change in East Timor. The country's climate may become hotter, drier, and increasingly variable. Sea levels are likely to rise. The paper then considers the implications of these changes on three natural resources--water, soils, and the coastal zone--and finds all to be sensitive to changes in climate and sea level. Changes in the abundance and distribution of these resources is likely to cause a reduction in agricultural production and food security, and sea-level rise is likely to damage coastal areas, including Dili, the capital city.

Assessment of composite index methods for agricultural vulnerability to climate change.

PubMed

Wiréhn, Lotten; Danielsson, Åsa; Neset, Tina-Simone S

2015-06-01

A common way of quantifying and communicating climate vulnerability is to calculate composite indices from indicators, visualizing these as maps. Inherent methodological uncertainties in vulnerability assessments, however, require greater attention. This study examines Swedish agricultural vulnerability to climate change, the aim being to review various indicator approaches for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and to evaluate differences in climate vulnerability depending on the weighting and summarizing methods. The reviewed methods are evaluated by being tested at the municipal level. Three weighting and summarizing methods, representative of climate vulnerability indices in general, are analysed. The results indicate that 34 of 36 method combinations differ significantly from each other. We argue that representing agricultural vulnerability in a single composite index might be insufficient to guide climate adaptation. We emphasize the need for further research into how to measure and visualize agricultural vulnerability and into how to communicate uncertainties in both data and methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of the reef-dune system in coastal protection in Puerto Morelos (Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franklin, Gemma L.; Torres-Freyermuth, Alec; Medellin, Gabriela; Allende-Arandia, María Eugenia; Appendini, Christian M.

2018-04-01

Reefs and sand dunes are critical morphological features providing natural coastal protection. Reefs dissipate around 90 % of the incident wave energy through wave breaking, whereas sand dunes provide the final natural barrier against coastal flooding. The storm impact on coastal areas with these features depends on the relative elevation of the extreme water levels with respect to the sand dune morphology. However, despite the importance of barrier reefs and dunes in coastal protection, poor management practices have degraded these ecosystems, increasing their vulnerability to coastal flooding. The present study aims to theoretically investigate the role of the reef-dune system in coastal protection under current climatic conditions at Puerto Morelos, located in the Mexican Caribbean Sea, using a widely validated nonlinear non-hydrostatic numerical model (SWASH). Wave hindcast information, tidal level, and a measured beach profile of the reef-dune system in Puerto Morelos are employed to estimate extreme runup and the storm impact scale for current and theoretical scenarios. The numerical results show the importance of including the storm surge when predicting extreme water levels and also show that ecosystem degradation has important implications for coastal protection against storms with return periods of less than 10 years. The latter highlights the importance of conservation of the system as a mitigation measure to decrease coastal vulnerability and infrastructure losses in coastal areas in the short to medium term. Furthermore, the results are used to evaluate the applicability of runup parameterisations for beaches to reef environments. Numerical analysis of runup dynamics suggests that runup parameterisations for reef environments can be improved by including the fore reef slope. Therefore, future research to develop runup parameterisations incorporating reef geometry features (e.g. reef crest elevation, reef lagoon width, fore reef slope) is warranted.

Heat Wave Vulnerability Mapping for India.

PubMed

Azhar, Gulrez; Saha, Shubhayu; Ganguly, Partha; Mavalankar, Dileep; Madrigano, Jaime

2017-03-30

Assessing geographic variability in heat wave vulnerability forms the basis for planning appropriate targeted adaptation strategies. Given several recent deadly heatwaves in India, heat is increasingly being recognized as a public health problem. However, to date there has not been a country-wide assessment of heat vulnerability in India. We evaluated demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental vulnerability factors and combined district level data from several sources including the most recent census, health reports, and satellite remote sensing data. We then applied principal component analysis (PCA) on 17 normalized variables for each of the 640 districts to create a composite Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) for India. Of the total 640 districts, our analysis identified 10 and 97 districts in the very high and high risk categories (> 2SD and 2-1SD HVI) respectively. Mapping showed that the districts with higher heat vulnerability are located in the central parts of the country. On examination, these are less urbanized and have low rates of literacy, access to water and sanitation, and presence of household amenities. Therefore, we concluded that creating and mapping a heat vulnerability index is a useful first step in protecting the public from the health burden of heat. Future work should incorporate heat exposure and health outcome data to validate the index, as well as examine sub-district levels of vulnerability.

[Spatial and temporal changes of the ecological vulnerability in a serious soil erosion area, Southern China.

PubMed

Yao, Xiong; Yu, Kun Yong; Liu, Jian; Yang, Su Ping; He, Ping; Deng, Yang Bo; Yu, Xin Yan; Chen, Zhang Hao

2016-03-01

Research on eco-environment vulnerability assessment contributes to the ecological environmental conservation and restoration. With Changting County as the study area, this paper selec-ted 7 indicators including slope, soil type, multi-year average precipitation, elevation deviate degree, normalized difference vegetation index, population density and land use type to build ecological vulnerability assessment system by using multicollinearity diagnostics analysis approach. The quantitative assessment of ecological vulnerability in 1999, 2006 and 2014 was calculated by using entropy weight method and comprehensive index method. The changes of the temporal-spatial distribution of ecological vulnerability were also analyzed. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability level index (EVLI) decreased overall but increased locally from 1999 to 2014. The average EVLI values in 1999, 2006 and 2014 were 0.4533±0.1216, 0.4160±0.1111 and 0.3916±0.1139, respectively, indicating that the ecological vulnerability in Changting County was at the moderate grade. The EVLI decreased from 2.92 in 1999 to 2.38 in 2006 and 2.13 in 2014. The spatial distribution of the ecological vulnerability was high inside but low outside. The high vulnerability areas were distributed mainly in Hetian Town and Tingzhou Town, where the slope was less than 15° and the altitude was lower than 500 m. During the study period, Sanzhou Town had the largest decreasing range of EVLI while Tingzhou Town had the lowest.

Validation of a social vulnerability index in context to river-floods in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fekete, A.

2009-03-01

Social vulnerability indices are a means for generating information about people potentially affected by disasters that are e.g. triggered by river-floods. The purpose behind such an index is in this study the development and the validation of a social vulnerability map of population characteristics towards river-floods covering all counties in Germany. This map is based on a composite index of three main indicators for social vulnerability in Germany - fragility, socio-economic conditions and region. These indicators have been identified by a factor analysis of selected demographic variables obtained from federal statistical offices. Therefore, these indicators can be updated annually based on a reliable data source. The vulnerability patterns detected by the factor analysis are verified by using an independent second data set. The interpretation of the second data set shows that vulnerability is revealed by a real extreme flood event and demonstrates that the patterns of the presumed vulnerability match the observations of a real event. It comprises a survey of flood-affected households in three federal states. By using logistic regression, it is demonstrated that the theoretically presumed indications of vulnerability are correct and that the indicators are valid. It is shown that indeed certain social groups like the elderly, the financially weak or the urban residents are higher risk groups.

Mapping Socio-Economic Vulnerability During Extreme Events (flash floods) in The Himalayan Region: A Case Study Of Bhagirathi Basin, Uttarakhand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nisha, N.; Punia, M.

2016-12-01

Mountain stratigraphic system cannot be claimed as the extraordinarily fragile but a greater range of vulnerability to disturbance than many landscape, in the physical space leading to disturbance in social space, makes it special eco-sensitive zone with greater degree of fragility. The present study furnishes socio-economic vulnerability mapping of the Bhagirathi basin through computation of the Socio vulnerability Index (SoVI). SoVI correlates vulnerability to natural or anthropogenic disasters to socio - economic development and illustrates how developmental parameters alter equation of potential effect and recovery in event of a natural catastrophe in the study region. Use of time-series datasets from different sources, including the optical remote sensing data and the use of social and/or economic data to quantify the vulnerabilities during extreme events is attempted. From the analysis it has been found that the areas with high social vulnerability index are might prone to disaster than low index area. However, the analysis of social vulnerability not only helps to identify flood risk area but also raises the question how the key drivers trigger flood and controlled by the governments and local authorities.

Microtremor Study of Site Effect for Disaster Mitigation and Geotechnical Purpose

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aswad, Sabrianto; Altin Massinai, Muh.; Syamsuddin

2018-03-01

Makassar city have relatively lower earthquake vulnerability compared to other regions in Indonesia, however detailed mapping related to seismic wave amplification needs to be done in the interest of geotechnical, regional planning and disaster mitigation. It is generally known that the magnitude of the damage during the occurrence of earthquakes or tremor occur periodically is influenced by the dynamic characteristics of the building as a function of seismic wave amplification. The degree of seismic wave amplification depends on several factors, including the thickness of the sediment layer, the level of compaction and the geological age factor. The purpose of this research is to investigate seismic vulnerability in Makassar by using spectral comparison through microtremor measurement. There are several of the approaches that can be done and microtremor is the easiest and cheapest method to understand these dynamic characteristics without causing damage effects. Spectra comparison technique used was popular by Nakamura, which is comparison technique of horizontal component noise spectra and the vertical component in sediment areas (H/V spectra). Results from seismic vulnerability index (SVI) distribution maps show values ranging from 0, 14 - 158, 31. In general, the eastern part of the city of Makassar near from coastal areas is more vulnerable to damage especially earthquakes or periodic earth tremor with certain dominant frequency compared with the western part of Makassar City.

Vulnerability assessment including tangible and intangible components in the index composition: An Amazon case study of flooding and flash flooding.

PubMed

Andrade, Milena Marília Nogueira de; Szlafsztein, Claudio Fabian

2018-07-15

The vulnerability of cities and communities in the Amazon to flooding and flash flooding is increasing. The effects of extreme events on populations vary across landscapes, causing vulnerability to differ spatially. Traditional vulnerability studies in Brazil and across the world have used the vulnerability index for the country and, more recently, municipality scales. The vulnerability dimensions are exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. For each of these dimensions, there is a group of indicators that constitutes a vulnerability index using quantitative data. Several vulnerability assessments have used sensitivity and exposure analyses and, recently, adaptive capacity has been considered. The Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analysis allows spatial regional modeling using quantitative vulnerability indicators. This paper presents a local-scale vulnerability assessment in an urban Amazonian area, Santarém City, using interdisciplinary methods. Data for exposure and sensitivity were gathered by remote sensing and census data, respectively. However, adaptive capacity refers to local capacities, whether infrastructural or not, and the latter were gathered by qualitative participatory methods. For the mixed data used to study adaptive capacity, we consider tangible components for countable infrastructure that can cope with hazards, and intangible components that reflect social activities based on risk perceptions and collective action. The results indicate that over 80% of the area is highly or moderately vulnerable to flooding and flash flooding. Exposure and adaptive capacity were determinants of the results. Lower values of adaptive capacity play a significant role in vulnerability enhancement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability of wetland soil carbon stocks to climate warming in the perhumid coastal temperate rainforest

Treesearch

Jason B. Fellman; David V. D’Amore; Eran Hood; Pat Cunningham

2017-01-01

The perhumid coastal temperate rainforest (PCTR) of southeast Alaska has some of the densest soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in the world (>300 Mg C ha-1) but the fate of this SOC with continued warming remains largely unknown. We quantified dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and carbon dioxide (CO2) yields from four...

Tsunami vulnerability and damage assessment in the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atillah, A.; El Hadani, D.; Moudni, H.; Lesne, O.; Renou, C.; Mangin, A.; Rouffi, F.

2011-12-01

This study, a companion paper to Renou et al. (2011), focuses on the application of a GIS-based method to assess building vulnerability and damage in the event of a tsunami affecting the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco. This approach, designed within the framework of the European SCHEMA project (www.schemaproject.org) is based on the combination of hazard results from numerical modelling of the worst case tsunami scenario (inundation depth) based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 and the Portugal earthquake of 1969, together with vulnerability building types derived from Earth Observation data, field surveys and GIS data. The risk is then evaluated for this highly concentrated population area characterized by the implementation of a vast project of residential and touristic buildings within the flat area of the Bouregreg Valley separating the cities of Rabat and Salé. A GIS tool is used to derive building damage maps by crossing layers of inundation levels and building vulnerability. The inferred damage maps serve as a base for elaborating evacuation plans with appropriate rescue and relief processes and to prepare and consider appropriate measures to prevent the induced tsunami risk.

GIS Analysis of Changes in Ecological Vulnerability Using a SPCA Model in the Loess Plateau of Northern Shaanxi, China

PubMed Central

Kang, Hou; Xuxiang, Li; Jing, Zhang

2015-01-01

Changes in ecological vulnerability were analyzed for Northern Shaanxi, China using a geographic information system (GIS). An evaluation model was developed using a spatial principal component analysis (SPCA) model containing land use, soil erosion, topography, climate, vegetation and social economy variables. Using this model, an ecological vulnerability index was computed for the research region. Using natural breaks classification (NBC), the evaluation results were divided into five types: potential, slight, light, medium and heavy. The results indicate that there is greater than average optimism about the conditions of the study region, and the ecological vulnerability index (EVI) of the southern eight counties is lower than that of the northern twelve counties. From 1997 to 2011, the ecological vulnerability index gradually decreased, which means that environmental security was gradually enhanced, although there are still some places that have gradually deteriorated over the past 15 years. In the study area, government and economic factors and precipitation are the main reasons for the changes in ecological vulnerability. PMID:25898407

The Icarus challenge - Predicting geographical and taxonomic patterns of vulnerability to climate change in near-coastal species

EPA Science Inventory

Like Icarus, the world's oceans are "flying too close" to the sun. Increases in temperature and sea level and reductions in pH will affect many, if not most, near-coastal species. The type and severity of the effects will vary both by species and regionally due to geogr...

Developing a Climate-Induced Social Vulnerability Index for Urban Areas: A Case Study of East Tennessee

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Omitaomu, Olufemi A.; Carvalhaes, Thomaz M.

Census American Community Survey 2008-2012 data are used to construct a spatially explicit Climate-Induced Social Vulnerability Index (CSVI) for the East Tennessee area. This CSVI is a combination of a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and a Climate Index. A method is replicated and adapted to derive a custom SVI by Census tract for the counties participating in the East Tennessee Index, and a Climate Index is developed for the same area based on indicators for climate hazards. The resulting datasets are exported as a raster to be integrated and combined within the Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT) to act asmore » an indicator for communities which may be differentially vulnerable to changes in climate. Results for the SVI are mapped separately from the complete CSVI in this document as results for the latter are in development.« less

A framework for modeling scenario-based barrier island storm impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.

2018-01-01

Methods for investigating the vulnerability of existing or proposed coastal features to storm impacts often rely on simplified parametric models or one-dimensional process-based modeling studies that focus on changes to a profile across a dune or barrier island. These simple studies tend to neglect the impacts to curvilinear or alongshore varying island planforms, influence of non-uniform nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport, irregular morphology of the offshore bathymetry, and impacts from low magnitude wave events (e.g. cold fronts). Presented here is a framework for simulating regionally specific, low and high magnitude scenario-based storm impacts to assess the alongshore variable vulnerabilities of a coastal feature. Storm scenarios based on historic hydrodynamic conditions were derived and simulated using the process-based morphologic evolution model XBeach. Model results show that the scenarios predicted similar patterns of erosion and overwash when compared to observed qualitative morphologic changes from recent storm events that were not included in the dataset used to build the scenarios. The framework model simulations were capable of predicting specific areas of vulnerability in the existing feature and the results illustrate how this storm vulnerability simulation framework could be used as a tool to help inform the decision-making process for scientists, engineers, and stakeholders involved in coastal zone management or restoration projects.

Vegetation controls on the maximum size of coastal dunes.

PubMed

Durán, Orencio; Moore, Laura J

2013-10-22

Coastal dunes, in particular foredunes, support a resilient ecosystem and reduce coastal vulnerability to storms. In contrast to dry desert dunes, coastal dunes arise from interactions between biological and physical processes. Ecologists have traditionally addressed coastal ecosystems by assuming that they adapt to preexisting dune topography, whereas geomorphologists have studied the properties of foredunes primarily in connection to physical, not biological, factors. Here, we study foredune development using an ecomorphodynamic model that resolves the coevolution of topography and vegetation in response to both physical and ecological factors. We find that foredune growth is eventually limited by a negative feedback between wind flow and topography. As a consequence, steady-state foredunes are scale invariant, which allows us to derive scaling relations for maximum foredune height and formation time. These relations suggest that plant zonation (in particular for strand "dune-building" species) is the primary factor controlling the maximum size of foredunes and therefore the amount of sand stored in a coastal dune system. We also find that aeolian sand supply to the dunes determines the timescale of foredune formation. These results offer a potential explanation for the empirical relation between beach type and foredune size, in which large (small) foredunes are found on dissipative (reflective) beaches. Higher waves associated with dissipative beaches increase the disturbance of strand species, which shifts foredune formation landward and thus leads to larger foredunes. In this scenario, plants play a much more active role in modifying their habitat and altering coastal vulnerability than previously thought.

The hidden costs of coastal hazards: Implications for risk assessment and mitigation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kunreuther, H.; Platt, R.; Baruch, S.; Bernknopf, R.L.; Buckley, M.; Burkett, V.; Conrad, D.; Davidson, T.; Deutsch, K.; Geis, D.; Jannereth, M.; Knap, A.; Lane, H.; Ljung, G.; McCauley, M.; Mileti, D.; Miller, T.; Morrow, B.; Meyers, J.; Pielke, R.; Pratt, A.; Tripp, J.

2000-01-01

Society has limited hazard mitigation dollars to invest. Which actions will be most cost effective, considering the true range of impacts and costs incurred? In 1997, the H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment began a two-year study with a panel of experts to help develop new strategies to identify and reduce the costs of weather-related hazards associated with rapidly increasing coastal development activities.The Hidden Costs of Coastal Hazards presents the panel's findings, offering the first in-depth study that considers the costs of coastal hazards to natural resources, social institutions, business, and the built environment. Using Hurricane Hugo, which struck South Carolina in 1989, as a case study, it provides for the first time information on the full range of economic costs caused by a major coastal hazard event. The book:describes and examines unreported, undocumented, and hidden costs such as losses due to business interruption, reduction in property values, interruption of social services, psychological trauma, damage to natural systems, and othersexamines the concepts of risk and vulnerability, and discusses conventional approaches to risk assessment and the emerging area of vulnerability assessmentrecommends a comprehensive framework for developing and implementing mitigation strategiesdocuments the human impact of Hurricane Hugo and provides insight from those who lived through it.The Hidden Costs of Coastal Hazards takes a structured approach to the problem of coastal hazards, offering a new framework for community-based hazard mitigation along with specific recommendations for implementation. Decisionmakers -- both policymakers and planners -- who are interested in coastal hazard issues will find the book a unique source of new information and insight, as will private-sector decisionmakers including lenders, investors, developers, and insurers of coastal property.

[Construction and validation of a socio-environmental vulnerability index for monitoring and management of natural disasters in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil].

PubMed

Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça; Mazoto, Maíra Lopes; Martins, Raphael Nascimento; do Carmo, Cleber Nascimento; Asmus, Carmen Ildes Fróes

2014-10-01

Floods account for approximately 40% of natural disasters that occur around the world and they are therefore considered a major public health problem. While floods constitute a global problem, data from the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction showed that almost all of the deaths or individuals affected are concentrated in developing countries. It is assumed that, although they have natural causes, the consequences of floods also involve social issues. To try to predict such vulnerability in the occurrence of natural disasters, a social and environmental index that shows the degree of vulnerability of a location was developed in this paper. This index was developed using multivariate analysis involving factor analysis and demographic, social and environmental variables. The index was applied in the municipalities of the state of Rio de Janeiro and compared with the official figures of the Civil Defense Unit. The results found suggest that the proposed index meets the expectation of predicting the vulnerability of the local population.

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

2008-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

Geospatial approach for assessment of biophysical vulnerability to agricultural drought and its intra-seasonal variations.

PubMed

Sehgal, Vinay Kumar; Dhakar, Rajkumar

2016-03-01

The study presents a methodology to assess and map agricultural drought vulnerability during main kharif crop season at local scale and compare its intra-seasonal variations. A conceptual model of vulnerability based on variables of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity was adopted, and spatial datasets of key biophysical factors contributing to vulnerability were generated using remote sensing and GIS for Rajasthan State of India. Hazard exposure was based on frequency and intensity of gridded standardized precipitation index (SPI). Agricultural sensitivity was based on soil water holding capacity as well as on frequency and intensity of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-derived trend adjusted vegetation condition index (VCITadj). Percent irrigated area was used as a measure of adaptive capacity. Agricultural drought vulnerability was derived separately for early, mid, late, and whole kharif seasons by composting rating of factors using linear weighting scheme and pairwise comparison of multi-criteria evaluation. The regions showing very low to extreme rating of hazard exposure, drought sensitivity, and agricultural vulnerability were identified at all four time scales. The results indicate that high to extreme vulnerability occurs in more than 50% of net sown area in the state and such areas mostly occur in western, central, and southern parts. The higher vulnerability is on account of non-irrigated croplands, moderate to low water holding capacity of sandy soils, resulting in higher sensitivity, and located in regions with high probability of rainfall deficiency. The mid and late season vulnerability has been found to be much higher than that during early and whole season. Significant correlation of vulnerability rating with food grain productivity, drought recurrence period, crop area damaged in year 2009 and socioeconomic indicator of human development index (HDI) proves the general soundness of methodology. Replication of this methodology in other areas is expected to lead to better preparedness and mitigation-oriented management of droughts.

The GULLS project: a comparison of vulnerabilities across selected ocean hotspots and implications for adaptation to global change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cochrane, K.; Hobday, A. J.; Aswani, S.; Byfield, V.; Dutra, L.; Gasalla, M.; Haward, M.; Paytan, A.; Pecl, G.; Plaganyi-Lloyd, E.; Popova, K.; Salim, S. S.; Savage, C.; Sauer, W.; van Putten, I. E.; Visser, N.; Team, T G

2016-12-01

The GULLS project, `Global learning for local solutions: Reducing vulnerability of marine-dependent coastal communities' has been underway since October 2014. The project has been investigating six regional `hotspots': marine areas experiencing rapid warming. These are south-east Australia, Brazil, India, Solomon Islands, South Africa, and the Mozambique Channel and Madagascar. Rapid warming could be expected to have social, cultural and economic impacts that could affect these countries in different ways and may already be doing so. GULLS has focused on contributing to assessing and reducing the vulnerability of coastal communities and other stakeholders dependent on marine resources and to facilitate adaptation to climate change and variability through an integrated and trans-disciplinary approach. It includes participants from Australia, Brazil, India, Madagascar, New Zealand, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The research programme has been divided into six inter-linked components: ocean models, biological and ecological sensitivity analyses, system models, social vulnerability, policy mapping, and communication and education. This presentation will provide a brief overview of each of these components and describe the benefits that have resulted from the collaborative and transdisciplinary approach of GULLS. Following the standard vulnerability elements of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, the vulnerabilities of coastal communities and other stakeholders dependent on marine resources in the five hotspots will be compared using a set of indicators derived and populated from results of the research programme. The implications of similarities and differences between the hotspots for adaptation planning and options will be described.

A Data-Driven Approach to Assess Coastal Vulnerability: Machine Learning from Hurricane Sandy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foti, R.; Miller, S. M.; Montalto, F. A.

2015-12-01

As climate changes and population living along the coastlines continues to increase, an understanding of coastal risk and vulnerability to extreme events becomes increasingly important. With as many as 700,000 people living less than 3 m above the high tide line, New York City (NYC) represents one of the most threatened among major world cities. Recent events, most notably Hurricane Sandy, have put a tremendous pressure on the mosaic of economic, environmental, and social activities occurring in NYC at the interface between land and water. Using information on property damages collected by the Civil Air Patrol (CAP) after Hurricane Sandy, we developed a machine-learning based model able to identify the primary factors determining the occurrence and the severity of damages and intended to both assess and predict coastal vulnerability. The available dataset consists of categorical classifications of damages, ranging from 0 (not damaged) to 5 (damaged and flooded), and available for a sample of buildings in the NYC area. A set of algorithms, such as Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest, were trained on 75% of the available dataset and tested on the remaining 25%, both training and test sets being picked at random. A combination of factors, including elevation, distance from shore, surge depth, soil type and proximity to key topographic features, such as wetlands and parks, were used as predictors. Trained algorithms were able to achieve over 85% prediction accuracy on both the training set and, most notably, the test set, with as few as six predictors, allowing a realistic depiction of the field of damage. Given their accuracy and robustness, we believe that these algorithms can be successfully applied to provide fields of coastal vulnerability for future extreme events, as well as to assess the consequences of changes, whether intended (e.g. land use change) or contingent (e.g. sea level rise), in the physical layout of NYC.

Mapping Extreme Heat Vulnerability and Health Outcomes to inform the District of Columbia's Climate Adaptation Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Declet-Barreto, J.; Wilhelmi, O.; Goggans, A.

2016-12-01

In this collaborative engagement, scientists are partnering with the District of Columbia (DC) to develop an extreme heat vulnerability assessment. To do so, we map socio-demographic and built environment indicators of extreme heat vulnerability in Census Tracts in DC neighborhoods. In order to provide information useful for DC public health and urban planning practitioners, we aggregate the indicators into an index of extreme heat vulnerability. We compare the index against heat-related call data from DC's 911 system to better understand the socio-spatial distribution of extreme heat-related health outcomes. Our assessment can help inform the District's Climate Adaptation Plan as well as increase public engagement in reducing vulnerability to extreme heat.

Livelihood Vulnerability Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts to Mixed Agro-Livestock Smallholders Around the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthi, J., Sr.

2014-12-01

Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends upon agriculture and livestock are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world's fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there are few studies on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and IPCC vulnerability index (VI-IPCC), around the Gandaki river basin of Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts (Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu) representing the mountain, mid-hill and lowland altitudinal belts respectively. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected. Both indices differed across the three districts, with mixed agro-livestock smallholders of Dhading district found to be the most vulnerable and that of Syangja least vulnerable. This vulnerability index approach may be used to monitor rural vulnerability and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in poor countries like Nepal. The present findings are intended to help in designing intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders and other rural people in developing countries to climate change.

Social vulnerability assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis (SEVI model) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI model) - a case study for Bucharest, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armaş, I.; Gavriş, A.

2013-06-01

In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model) and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model). Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.

Global learning for local solutions: Reducing vulnerability of marine-dependent coastal communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salim, S. S.; Paytan, A.

2016-12-01

The project `Global learning for local solutions: Reducing vulnerability of marine-dependent coastal communities' (GULLS) falls within the Belmont Forum and G8 Research Councils Initiative on Multilateral Research Funding. Participants include teams from nine countries: Australia, Brazil, India, Madagascar, Mozambique, New Zealand, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The project focuses on five regional `hotspots' of climate and social change, defined as fast-warming marine areas and areas experiencing social tensions as a result of change: south-east Australia, Brazil, India, South Africa, and the Mozambique Channel and adjacent countries of Mozambique and Madagascar. These areas require most urgent attention and serve as valuable case studies for wider applications. The project aims to assist coastal communities and other stakeholders dependent on marine resources to adapt to climate change and variability through an integrated and trans-disciplinary approach. Combining best available global knowledge with local knowledge and conditions, it is exploring adaptation options and approaches to strengthen resilience at local and community levels, with a focus on options for reconciling the needs for food security with long-term sustainability and conservation. The project will also contribute to capacity development and empowering fishing communities and other fisheries-dependent stakeholders.A standardized vulnerability assessment framework is being developed that will be used to integrate results from natural, social and economic studies in order to identify needs and options for strengthening management and existing policies. Structured comparisons between the hot-spots will assist global efforts for adaptation and strengthening resilience in marine and coastal social-ecological systems.

The Components of Community Awareness and Preparedness; its Effects on the Reduction of Tsunami Vulnerability and Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tufekci, Duygu; Lutfi Suzen, Mehmet; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet

2017-04-01

The resilience of coastal communities against tsunamis are dependent on preparedness of the communities. Preparedness covers social and structural components which increases with the awareness in the community against tsunamis. Therefore, proper evaluation of all components of preparedness will help communities to reduce the adverse effects of tsunamis and increase the overall resilience of communities. On the other hand, the complexity of the metropolitan life with its social and structural components necessitates explicit vulnerability assessments for proper determination of tsunami risk, and development of proper mitigation strategies and recovery plans. Assessing the vulnerability and resilience level of a region against tsunamis and efforts for reducing the tsunami risk are the key components of disaster management. Since increasing the awareness of coastal communities against tsunamis is one of the main objectives of disaster management, then it should be considered as one of the parameter in tsunami risk analysis. In the method named MetHuVA (METU - Metropolitan Human Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment) proposed by Cankaya et al., (2016) and Tufekci et al., (2016), the awareness and preparedness level of the community is revealed to be an indispensable parameter with a great effect on tsunami risk. According to the results obtained from those studies, it becomes important that the awareness and preparedness parameter (n) must be analyzed by considering their interaction and all related components. While increasing awareness can be achieved, vulnerability and risk will be reduced. In this study the components of awareness and preparedness parameter (n) is analyzed in different categories by considering administrative, social, educational, economic and structural preparedness of the coastal communities. Hence the proposed awareness and preparedness parameter can properly be analyzed and further improvements can be achieved in vulnerability and risk analysis. Furthermore, the components of the awareness and preparedness parameter n, is widely investigated in global and local practices by using the method of categorization to determine different levels for different coastal metropolitan areas with different cultures and with different hazard perception. Moreover, consistency between the theoretical maximum and practical applications of parameter n is estimated, discussed and presented. In the applications mainly the Bakirkoy district of Istanbul is analyzed and the results are presented. Acknowledgements: Partial support by 603839 ASTARTE Project of EU, UDAPC-12-14 project of AFAD, Turkey, 213M534 projects of TUBITAK, Japan-Turkey Joint Research Project by JICA on earthquakes and tsunamis in Marmara Region in (JICA SATREPS - MarDiM Project), and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality are acknowledged.

National intelligence estimates and the Failed State Index.

PubMed

Voracek, Martin

2013-10-01

Across 177 countries around the world, the Failed State Index, a measure of state vulnerability, was reliably negatively associated with the estimates of national intelligence. Psychometric analysis of the Failed State Index, compounded of 12 social, economic, and political indicators, suggested factorial unidimensionality of this index. The observed correspondence of higher national intelligence figures to lower state vulnerability might arise through these two macro-level variables possibly being proxies of even more pervasive historical and societal background variables that affect both.

National assessment of nor’easter-induced coastal erosion hazards: mid- and northeast Atlantic coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Birchler, Justin J.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Doran, Kara S.

2015-09-21

Extreme coastal changes caused by hurricanes or nor’easters may increase the vulnerability of communities both during a storm and to future storms. For example, when sand dunes are substantially eroded, inland structures are exposed to storm surge and waves. On barrier islands, absent or low dunes allow water to flow inland across the island.

A Framework For Analysis Of Coastal Infrastructure Vunerabilty To Global Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obrien, P. S.; White, K. D.; Veatch, W.; Marzion, R.; Moritz, H.; Moritz, H. R.

2017-12-01

Recorded impacts of global sea rise on coastal water levels have been documented over the past 100 to 150 years. In the recent 40 years the assumption of hydrologic stationarity has been recognized as invalid. New coastal infrastructure designs must recognize the paradigm shift from hydrologic stationarity to non-stationarity in coastal hydrology. A framework for the evaluation of existing coastal infrastructure is proposed to effectively assess design vulnerability. Two data sets developed from existing structures are chosen to test a proposed framework for vunerabilty to global sea level rise, with the proposed name Climate Preparedness and Resilience Register (CPRR). The CPRR framework consists of four major elements; Datum Adjustment, Coastal Water Levels, Scenario Projections and Performance Thresholds.

An Evaluation of Drought Indices in Different Climatic Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahabfar, A.; Eitzinger, J.

2009-04-01

Drought has become a recurrent phenomenon in Iran in the last few decades. Significant drought conditions were observed during years of late 2000s and the trend continued up to now. The country's agricultural sector and water resources have been under severe constraints from the recurrent droughts. In this study, spatial and temporal dimensions of meteorological droughts in Iran have been investigated from vulnerability concept. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was developed to detect drought and wet periods at different time scales, an important characteristic that is not accomplished with typical drought indices. More and more users employ the SPI to monitor droughts. Although calculation of the SPI is easier than other drought indices, such as the Palmer Drought Index, it is still relatively complex. Two indices called the China-Z Index (CZI) and Modified China-Z Index (CZI) have been used by many scientists to monitor moisture conditions across their country or their case study area. The calculations of these indices are easier than the SPI. Another indices, the statistical Z-Score and percent of normal (PN), can also be used to monitor droughts. This paper evaluates the SPI, CZI, MCZI, Z-Score and PN on 1-, 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month time scales using monthly precipitation totals for six climatic regions in Iran from January 2000 to December 2005 as a sever dry period and representing six climatic regions include: mountain, semi mountain, desert, semi-desert, coastal desert and coastal wet. Advantages and disadvantages for the application of each index are compared. Study results indicate that the CZI, MCZI, Z-Score and PN can provide results similar to the SPI for all time scales, and that the calculations of these indices are relatively easy compared with the SPI, possibly offering better tools to monitor moisture conditions. KEY WORDS: drought monitoring, drought indices, soil moisture, climatic regions.

Vulnerability of inter-tropical littoral areas. Preface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charvis, Philippe; Gubert, Flore; Ménard, Frédéric

2017-10-01

The coastal area is defined as the interface between land and sea. It is a transition zone where land is affected by its proximity to the sea, and the coastal sea is affected by its proximity to the land. Its components are diverse and include river deltas, coastal plains, wetlands, beaches and dunes, reefs, mangrove forests, lagoons, and other coastal features. Coastal areas contribute to a small proportion of the total land area in the Earth system, but they provide a wide variety of ecosystem services (e.g., food through fish production, sand mining, flooding and erosion protection, recreational benefits, etc.) and are home to a large and growing proportion of the world's population.

Adapting to Sea Level Rise to the Year 2100 and Beyond in the State of Florida, USA: A Regional Approach Based upon Common Vulnerabilities and the Utility of Shared Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkinson, R. W.; Harlem, P. W.; Meeder, J.

2014-12-01

We simulate the vulnerability of all 35 Florida coastal counties to the ongoing Anthropocene marine transgression unconstrained by the artificial end date of year 2100. Coastal submergence was emulated using a 'bathtub model' and rising sea level associated with an atmospheric temperature increase of +1 oC to +4 oC (see Levermann et al. [1]). Simulation results are organized into seven regions, each representing an area of common vulnerability characterized in this study as high (9% to 30% land loss), higher (16 to 68% land loss) and highest (48% to 97% land loss). This grouping provides a logical basis for establishing or re-enforcing collaboration based upon a common threat and the utility of shared technical and financial resources. Our bathtub model assumes Florida terrain is simply submerged as the shoreline migrates across a static landscape without change in the physical and biological materials subject to marine transgression. However, geologic studies of past and present Florida shorelines indicate the rate of rise is as important as the magnitude when predicting coastal response. To determine the utility of the bathtub model as a representative simulation of Florida's response to future sea level rise, we considered Florida's coastal response to varying rates of sea level rise over the last 14,000 years. Available data clearly demonstrate predicted rates of sea level rise will result in widespread submergence; the rate of rise will be too fast to be offset by the stabilizing forces of biogenic or physical sediment accumulation. Hence the magnitude of land loss and associated shoreline retreat in each of the seven Florida regions - and likely other coastal zones in the southeast U.S. - will be solely a function of topographic elevation and can therefore be reasonably forecast using a bathtub model. While our focus is on Florida's coastal counties, we recognize in some regions the effects of sea level rise will extend further inland. In these areas, the regional boundaries could be expanded to include adjacent non-coastal counties. However, differences in the perception of risk and associated vulnerability between coastal and inland counties may complicate timely collaboration. References: [1] A. Levermann et al. (2013), The Multi-Millennial Sea-Level Commitment of Global Warming, doi:10.1073/pnas.1219414110.

Heat Vulnerability Index Mapping for Milwaukee and Wisconsin.

PubMed

Christenson, Megan; Geiger, Sarah Dee; Phillips, Jeffrey; Anderson, Ben; Losurdo, Giovanna; Anderson, Henry A

Extreme heat waves elevate the population's risk for heat-related morbidity and mortality, specifically for vulnerable groups such as older adults and young children. In this context, we developed 2 Heat Vulnerability Indices (HVIs), one for the state of Wisconsin and one for the Milwaukee metropolitan area. Through the creation of an HVI, state and local agencies will be able to use the indices as a planning tool for extreme heat events. Data used for the HVIs were grouped into 4 categories: (1) population density; (2) health factors; (3) demographic and socioeconomic factors; and (4) natural and built environment factors. These categories were mapped at the Census block group level. Unweighted z-score data were used to determine index scores, which were then mapped by quantiles ranging from "high" to "low" vulnerability. Statewide, Menominee County exhibited the highest vulnerability to extreme heat. Milwaukee HVI findings indicated high vulnerability in the city's inner core versus low vulnerability along the lakeshore. Visualization of vulnerability could help local public health agencies prepare for future extreme heat events.

Social vulnerability to heat in Greater Atlanta, USA: spatial pattern of heat, NDVI, socioeconomics and household composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sim, Sunhui

2017-10-01

The purpose of the article is evaluating spatial patterns of social vulnerability to heat in Greater Atlanta in 2015. The social vulnerability to heat is an index of socioeconomic status, household composition, land surface temperature and normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI). Land surface temperature and NDVI were derived from the red, NIR and thermal infrared (TIR) of a Landsat OLI/TIRS images collected on September 14, 2015. The research focus is on the variation of heat vulnerability in Greater Atlanta. The study found that heat vulnerability is highly clustered spatially, resulting in "hot spots" and "cool spots". The results show significant health disparities. The hotspots of social vulnerability to heat occurred in neighborhoods with lower socioeconomic status as measured by low education, low income and more poverty, greater proportion of elderly people and young children. The findings of this study are important for identifying clusters of heat vulnerability and the relationships with social factors. These significant results provide a basis for heat intervention services.

Impacts of Extreme Events on Human Health. Chapter 4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Jesse E.; Herring, Stephanie C.; Jantarasami, Lesley; Adrianopoli, Carl; Benedict, Kaitlin; Conlon, Kathryn; Escobar, Vanessa; Hess, Jeremy; Luvall, Jeffrey; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez;

Development of a Coastal Drought Index Using Salinity Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conrads, P. A.; Darby, L. S.

2014-12-01

The freshwater-saltwater interface in surface-water bodies along the coast is an important factor in the ecological and socio-economic dynamics of coastal communities. It influences community composition in freshwater and saltwater ecosystems, determines fisheries spawning habitat, and controls freshwater availability for municipal and industrial water intakes. These dynamics may be affected by coastal drought through changes in Vibrio bacteria impacts on shellfish harvesting and occurrence of wound infection, fish kills, harmful algal blooms, hypoxia, and beach closures. There are many definitions of drought, with most describing a decline in precipitation having negative impacts on water supply and agriculture. Four general types of drought are recognized: hydrological, agricultural, meteorological, and socio-economic. Indices have been developed for these drought types incorporating data such as rainfall, streamflow, soil moisture, groundwater levels, and snow pack. These indices were developed for upland areas and may not be appropriate for characterizing drought in coastal areas. Because of the uniqueness of drought impacts on coastal ecosystems, a need exists to develop a coastal drought index. The availability of real-time and historical salinity datasets provides an opportunity to develop a salinity-based coastal drought index. The challenge of characterizing salinity dynamics in response to drought is excluding responses attributable to occasional saltwater intrusion events. Our approach to develop a coastal drought index modified the Standardized Precipitation Index and applied it to sites in South Carolina and Georgia, USA. Coastal drought indices characterizing 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, and12-month drought conditions were developed. Evaluation of the coastal drought index indicates that it can be used for different estuary types, for comparison between estuaries, and as an index for wet conditions (high freshwater inflow) in addition to drought conditions.

On the significance of incorporating shoreline changes for evaluating coastal hydrodynamics under sea level rise scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passeri, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.

2013-12-01

Sea level rise (SLR) threatens coastal environments with loss of land, inundation of coastal wetlands, and increased flooding during extreme storm events. Research has shown that SLR is a major factor in the long-term, gradual retreat of shorelines (Fitzgerald et al., 2008). Along sandy shorelines, retreat has a more dynamic effect than just inundation due to rising water levels, including the physical process of erosion in which sand is removed from the shoreface and deposited offshore. This has the potential to affect ecological habitats as well as coastal communities. Although SLR induces seaward retreat of shorelines, many shorelines especially within the vicinity of inlets may experience accretion due to sediment trapping or beach replenishment (Aubrey and Giese, 1993, Browder and R.G., 1999). This study examines the influence of including projected shoreline changes under future sea states into hydrodynamic modeling within the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM). The NGOM coastline is an economically and ecologically significant area, comprised of various bays, barrier islands and mainland beaches. Projected shorelines and nearshore morphology for the year 2050 are derived from the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) shoreline change rates (Thieler and Hammer-Klose, 1999) and used in conjunction with the 'Bruun Rule effect'(Bruun, 1962). A large scale hydrodynamic model forced by astronomic tides and hurricane winds and pressures is used to simulate present conditions, a high projection of the 2050 sea state (18 in of SLR in accordance with Parris et al. (2012)) and the 2050 high sea state with 2050 shorelines to test the sensitivity of the system to the projected shoreline changes. Results show that shoreline changes coupled with sea level rise increases tidal inundation along shorelines, amplifies overtopping of barrier islands during storm surge events, and heightens inland storm surge inundation. It is critical to include estimates of shoreline and barrier island morphology when considering the hydrodynamics of extreme SLR projections. Aubrey, D. J. and G. S. Giese (1993). "Formation and Evolution of Multiple Tidal Inlets." Coastal Estuarine Stud. 44: 1-61. Browder, A. E. and D. R.G. (1999). "Pensacola Pass, FL Inlet Management Study". Coastal & Oceanographic Engineering Department, University of Florida, Prepared for Florida Department of Environmental Proection Bureau of Beaches and Coastal Systems. Bruun, P. (1962). "Sea-level rise as a cause of shore erosion." Proceedings of the American Society of Civil Engineers, Journal of the Waterways and Harbors Division 88: 117-130. Fitzgerald, D. M., M. S. Fenster, B. A. Argow and I. V. Buynevich (2008). "Coastal Impacts Due to Sea Level Rise." Annual Review Earth Planet Science 36: 601-647. Parris, A., P. Bromirski, V. Burkett, D. Cayan, M. Culver, J. Hall, R. Horton, K. Knuuti, R. Moss, J. Obeysekera, A. Sallenger and J. Weiss (2012). "Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment". NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1: 37. Thieler, E. R. and E. S. Hammer-Klose (1999). "National Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Sea Level rise: Preliminary Results for the U.S. Atlantic Coast". Woods Hole, Massachusetts, US Geological Survey.

Evaluation of NYC's Coastal Vulnerability and Potential Adaptation Strategies in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, S. M.; Foti, R.; Montalto, F. A.

2015-12-01

New York City's coastlines are a mosaic of remnant natural habitat, man-made wetlands, manicured parkland, public beaches, housing, and industrial centers, all of which are extremely vulnerable to flooding, storm surge, and damaging wave action. Risks are projected to increase overtime as sea levels rise, population grows, and the frequency and severity of extreme events increases. In order to protect its citizens and infrastructure, New York City is planning to invest 20 billion into a coastal protection plan, including 200 million towards wetlands creation and restoration. Focusing on the role of wetlands and parkland in reducing damages during Hurricane Sandy, our study seeks to identify the primary causes of coastal vulnerability and to provide guidelines for the design of coastal protection measures. Our findings show that most of the small, fragmented NYC's wetlands did not provide significant protection from the violence of the hurricane. Large stretches of wetlands and parkland, on the other hand, were found to exacerbate storm surge along the coast, but did reduce surge penetration further inland. Much of the protection provided by wetlands and coastal green sites was in the form of cost avoidance. Wetlands existed in the most heavily hit areas and so averted damages that would have occurred if those areas had been developed. Our results suggest that, when positioned in the highest risk areas, coastal green infrastructure such as wetlands and parklands can reduce coastal flood risks associated with extreme events like Hurricane Sandy. Policy would ideally prioritize conservation, restoration, and enhancement of large contiguous areas of wetlands in the lowest elevation areas of the city. Where low-lying coastal development cannot be relocated, the risk of damage from storm surges is best reduced by elevating critical infrastructure.

A Transient Landscape: Geospatial Analysis and Numerical Modeling of Coastal Geomorphology in the Outer Banks, North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardin, Eric Jon

Coastal landscapes can be relentlessly dynamic---owing to wave energy, tidal cycles, extreme weather events, and perpetual coastal winds. In these settings, the ever-changing landscape can threaten assets and infrastructure, necessitating costly measures to mitigate associated risks and to repair or maintain the changing landscape. Mapping and monitoring of terrain change, identification of areas susceptible to dramatic change, and understanding the processes that drive landscape change are critical for the development of responsible coastal management strategies and policies. Over the past two decades, LiDAR mapping has been conducted along the U.S. east coast (including the Outer Banks, North Carolina) on a near annual basis---generating a rich time series of topographic data with unprecedented accuracy, resolution, and extent. This time series has captured the response of the landscape to episodic storms, daily forcing of wind and waves, and anthropogenic activities. This work presents raster-based geospatial techniques developed to gain new insights into coastal geomorphology from the time series of available LiDAR. Per-cell statistical techniques derive information that is typically not obtained through the techniques traditionally employed by coastal scientists and engineers. Application of these techniques to study sites along the Outer Banks, NC, revealed substantial spatial and temporal variations in terrain change. Additionally, they identify the foredunes as being the most geomorphologically dynamic coastal features. In addition to per-cell statistical analysis, an approach is presented for the extraction of the dune ridge and dune toe (two features that are essential to standard vulnerability assessment). The approach employs a novel application of least cost path analysis and a physics-based model of an elastic sheet. The spatially distributed nature of the approach achieves a high level of automation and repeatability that semi-automated methods and manual digitization lack. Furthermore, the approach can be fully implemented with standard Geographic Information System (GIS) functionality, resulting in efficiency and ease of implementation. With this approach, a raster-based implementation of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) storm impact scale (designed to assess storm vulnerability of barrier islands) was developed. Vulnerability of 4km of the Outer Banks to Hurricane Isabel (2003) was assessed. The demonstrated approach produced vulnerability mapping at the high resolution of the input Digital Elevation Model (DEM)---providing results at the scale needed for local management, in contrast to the USGS approach, which is designed for continental scale vulnerability assessment. However, geospatial techniques cannot fully explain the observed geomorphology. Therefore, we present the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) implementation of the Sauermann model for wind-driven sand transport. The SPH implementation enables the full nonlinearity of the model to be applied to complex scenarios that are typical of coastal landscapes. Through application of the SPH model and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling of the windborne surface shear stress (which drives sand transport), we present the sediment flux at two study sites along the Outer Banks. Scenarios were tested that involved steady-state surface shear stress as well as scenarios with intermittent variations in the surface shear stress. Results showed that intermittency in the surface shear stress has the potential to greatly influence the resulting flux. However, the degree to which intermittency does alter the flux is highly dependent on wind characteristics and wind direction relative to the orientation of salient topographic features.

Comparison of empirical and numerical methods for the assessment of coastal vulnerability to erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kokkinos, Dimitris; Prinos, Panagiotis

2017-04-01

Assessing the vulnerability to erosion is an important step in order to identify the prone areas and propose an adaptation policy to climate change in coastal areas. In this paper two coastal areas at the Northern part of the Aegean Sea are selected to examine their vulnerability to erosion. The first case is Lesbos Island where the most common feature is pocket beaches and the second one is the coast of Thrace composed by long sandy beaches. In both case studies, the same simplified methodology proposed by Mendoza and Jimenez (2009) is used, which links the vulnerability to erosion with morphodynamic parameters such as beach retreat and beach width. The key parameter for the vulnerability assessment is the beach retreat. For its calculation two different approaches are used and compared. The first approach divides the eroded volume with the eroded depth and it is based on an empirical formula, derived for the Greek seas from the CCSEAWAVS project (Kokkinos et al, 2014), which links the eroded volume with JA parameter, a beach erosion predictor proposed by Jimenez (1993). The sediment fall velocity, the beach slope and the wave characteristics are the only necessary parameters to calculate JA. The second approach is based on the results derived from the numerical model Xbeach (Roelvink et al., 2009), which is an open source, state-of the-art, two-dimensional model including the hydrodynamic processes of short and long wave transformation, wave-induced setup, overwash, inundation, as well as the morphodynamic processes of bed load and suspended sediment transport, dune face avalanching, bed update and breaching. The results indicate that the area of Thrace is very prone to erosion at the eastern and western part of the study area, while the Island of Lesbos appears to have very low vulnerability. The application of this methodology with the two different approaches aims to generate useful information about the vulnerability to erosion, to examine the reliability of the empirical approach and to support studies for an adaptation policy to climate change. References: Jiménez, J.A., Sánchez-Arcilla, A., Stive, M.J.F., (1993), "Discussion on prediction of storm/normal beach profiles" Journal of Waterway Port, Coast. & Oc. Eng., 19(4): 466-468. Kokkinos D., Prinos P., Galiatsatou G., Jimenez J.A. (2014), "Estimation of Erosion Potential and Erosion Vulnerability Indices in the study sites" CCSEAWAVS, Report-Deliverable 4.2, THALES research project (In Greek) Mendoza, E.T. and Jiménez, J.A, (2009) "Regional geomorphic vulnerability analysis to storms for Catalan beaches", P. I. Civil Eng-Mar. En., 162(3): 127-135 Roelvink D., Reniers A., Van Dongeren A., De Vries J.T., McCall R., Lescinski J. (2009), "Modelling storm impacts on beaches, dunes and barrier islands", Coast. Eng., 56: 1133-1152

Predicting the persistence of coastal wetlands to global change stressors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guntenspergen, G.; McKee, K.; Cahoon, D.; Grace, J.; Megonigal, P.

2006-01-01

Despite progress toward understanding the response of coastal wetlands to increases in relative sea-level rise and an improved understanding of the effect of elevated CO2 on plant species allocation patterns, we are limited in our ability to predict the response of coastal wetlands to the effects associated with global change. Static simulations of the response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise using LIDAR and GIS lack the biological and physical feedback mechanisms present in such systems. Evidence from current research suggests that biotic processes are likely to have a major influence on marsh vulnerability to future accelerated rates of sea-level rise and the influence of biotic processes likely varies depending on hydrogeomorphic setting and external stressors. We have initiated a new research approach using a series of controlled mesocosm and field experiments, landscape scale studies, a comparative network of brackish coastal wetland monitoring sites and a suite of predictive models that address critical questions regarding the vulnerability of coastal brackish wetland systems to global change. Specifically, this research project evaluates the interaction of sea level rise and elevated CO2 concentrations with flooding, nutrient enrichment and disturbance effects. The study is organized in a hierarchical structure that links mesocosm, field, landscape and biogeographic levels so as to provide important new information that recognizes that coastal wetland systems respond to multiple interacting drivers and feedback effects controlling wetland surface elevation, habitat stability and ecosystem function. We also present a new statistical modelling technique (Structural Equation Modelling) that synthesizes and integrates our environmental and biotic measures in a predictive framework that forecasts ecosystem change and informs managers to consider adaptive shifts in strategies for the sustainable management of coastal wetlands.

The arctic water resource vulnerability index: an integrated assessment tool for community resilience and vulnerability with respect to freshwater.

PubMed

Alessa, Lilian; Kliskey, Andrew; Lammers, Richard; Arp, Chris; White, Dan; Hinzman, Larry; Busey, Robert

2008-09-01

People in the Arctic face uncertainty in their daily lives as they contend with environmental changes at a range of scales from local to global. Freshwater is a critical resource to people, and although water resource indicators have been developed that operate from regional to global scales and for midlatitude to equatorial environments, no appropriate index exists for assessing the vulnerability of Arctic communities to changing water resources at the local scale. The Arctic Water Resource Vulnerability Index (AWRVI) is proposed as a tool that Arctic communities can use to assess their relative vulnerability-resilience to changes in their water resources from a variety of biophysical and socioeconomic processes. The AWRVI is based on a social-ecological systems perspective that includes physical and social indicators of change and is demonstrated in three case study communities/watersheds in Alaska. These results highlight the value of communities engaging in the process of using the AWRVI and the diagnostic capability of examining the suite of constituent physical and social scores rather than the total AWRVI score alone.

Assessment of Vulnerability to Coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California

PubMed Central

Conlon, Kathryn C.; Benedict, Kaitlin; McCotter, Orion Z.; Bell, Jesse E.

2017-01-01

Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal infection endemic to the southwestern United States, particularly Arizona and California. Its incidence has increased, potentially due in part to the effects of changing climatic variables on fungal growth and spore dissemination. This study aims to quantify the county-level vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California and to assess the relationships between population vulnerability and climate variability. The variables representing exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were combined to calculate county level vulnerability indices. Three methods were used: (1) principal components analysis; (2) quartile weighting; and (3) percentile weighting. Two sets of indices, “unsupervised” and “supervised”, were created. Each index was correlated with coccidioidomycosis incidence data from 2000–2014. The supervised percentile index had the highest correlation; it was then correlated with variability measures for temperature, precipitation, and drought. The supervised percentile index was significantly correlated (p < 0.05) with coccidioidomycosis incidence in both states. Moderate, positive significant associations (p < 0.05) were found between index scores and climate variability when both states were concurrently analyzed and when California was analyzed separately. This research adds to the body of knowledge that could be used to target interventions to vulnerable counties and provides support for the hypothesis that population vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis is associated with climate variability. PMID:28644403

Integrating Climate and Ocean Change Vulnerability into Conservation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mcleod, E.; Green, A.; Game, E.; Anthony, K.; Cinner, J.; Heron, S. F.; Kleypas, J. A.; Lovelock, C.; Pandolfi, J.; Pressey, B.; Salm, R.; Schill, S.; Woodroffe, C. D.

2013-05-01

Tropical coastal and marine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to ocean warming, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise. Yet these projected climate and ocean change impacts are rarely considered in conservation planning due to the lack of guidance on how existing climate and ocean change models, tools, and data can be applied. We address this gap by describing how conservation planning can use available tools and data for assessing the vulnerability of tropical marine ecosystems to key climate threats. Additionally, we identify limitations of existing tools and provide recommendations for future research to improve integration of climate and ocean change information and conservation planning. Such information is critical for developing a conservation response that adequately protects these ecosystems and dependent coastal communities in the face of climate and ocean change.

Assessment of Vulnerability to Coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California.

PubMed

Shriber, Jennifer; Conlon, Kathryn C; Benedict, Kaitlin; McCotter, Orion Z; Bell, Jesse E

2017-06-23

Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal infection endemic to the southwestern United States, particularly Arizona and California. Its incidence has increased, potentially due in part to the effects of changing climatic variables on fungal growth and spore dissemination. This study aims to quantify the county-level vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California and to assess the relationships between population vulnerability and climate variability. The variables representing exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were combined to calculate county level vulnerability indices. Three methods were used: (1) principal components analysis; (2) quartile weighting; and (3) percentile weighting. Two sets of indices, "unsupervised" and "supervised", were created. Each index was correlated with coccidioidomycosis incidence data from 2000-2014. The supervised percentile index had the highest correlation; it was then correlated with variability measures for temperature, precipitation, and drought. The supervised percentile index was significantly correlated ( p < 0.05) with coccidioidomycosis incidence in both states. Moderate, positive significant associations ( p < 0.05) were found between index scores and climate variability when both states were concurrently analyzed and when California was analyzed separately. This research adds to the body of knowledge that could be used to target interventions to vulnerable counties and provides support for the hypothesis that population vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis is associated with climate variability.

Coastal Storm Hazards from Virginia to Maine

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-01

study, storm surge, tide, waves, wind, atmospheric pressure, and currents were the dominant storm responses computed. The effect of sea level change on...coastal storm hazards and vulnerability nationally (USACE 2015). NACCS goals also included evaluating the effect of future sea level change (SLC) on...the computed high-fidelity responses included storm surge, astronomical tide, waves, wave effects on water levels, storm duration, wind, currents

Identifying Future Disease Hot Spots: Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index.

PubMed

Moore, Melinda; Gelfeld, Bill; Okunogbe, Adeyemi; Paul, Christopher

2017-06-01

Recent high-profile outbreaks, such as Ebola and Zika, have illustrated the transnational nature of infectious diseases. Countries that are most vulnerable to such outbreaks might be higher priorities for technical support. RAND created the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index to help U.S. government and international agencies identify these countries and thereby inform programming to preemptively help mitigate the spread and effects of potential transnational outbreaks. The authors employed a rigorous methodology to identify the countries most vulnerable to disease outbreaks. They conducted a comprehensive review of relevant literature to identify factors influencing infectious disease vulnerability. Using widely available data, the authors created an index for identifying potentially vulnerable countries and then ranked countries by overall vulnerability score. Policymakers should focus on the 25 most-vulnerable countries with an eye toward a potential "disease belt" in the Sahel region of Africa. The infectious disease vulnerability scores for several countries were better than what would have been predicted on the basis of economic status alone. This suggests that low-income countries can overcome economic challenges and become more resilient to public health challenges, such as infectious disease outbreaks.

The arctic water resource vulnerability index: An integrated assessment tool for community resilience and vulnerability with respect to freshwater

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alessa, L.; Kliskey, A.; Lammers, R.; Arp, C.; White, D.; Hinzman, L.; Busey, R.

2008-01-01

People in the Arctic face uncertainty in their daily lives as they contend with environmental changes at a range of scales from local to global. Freshwater is a critical resource to people, and although water resource indicators have been developed that operate from regional to global scales and for midlatitude to equatorial environments, no appropriate index exists for assessing the vulnerability of Arctic communities to changing water resources at the local scale. The Arctic Water Resource Vulnerability Index (AWRVI) is proposed as a tool that Arctic communities can use to assess their relative vulnerability-resilience to changes in their water resources from a variety of biophysical and socioeconomic processes. The AWRVI is based on a social-ecological systems perspective that includes physical and social indicators of change and is demonstrated in three case study communities/watersheds in Alaska. These results highlight the value of communities engaging in the process of using the AWRVI and the diagnostic capability of examining the suite of constituent physical and social scores rather than the total AWRVI score alone. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

A comprehensive risk analysis of coastal zones in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guanghui; Liu, Yijun; Wang, Hongbing; Wang, Xueying

2014-03-01

Although coastal zones occupy an important position in the world development, they face high risks and vulnerability to natural disasters because of their special locations and their high population density. In order to estimate their capability for crisis-response, various models have been established. However, those studies mainly focused on natural factors or conditions, which could not reflect the social vulnerability and regional disparities of coastal zones. Drawing lessons from the experiences of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), this paper presents a comprehensive assessment strategy based on the mechanism of Risk Matrix Approach (RMA), which includes two aspects that are further composed of five second-class indicators. The first aspect, the probability phase, consists of indicators of economic conditions, social development, and living standards, while the second one, the severity phase, is comprised of geographic exposure and natural disasters. After weighing all of the above indicators by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi Method, the paper uses the comprehensive assessment strategy to analyze the risk indices of 50 coastal cities in China. The analytical results are presented in ESRI ArcGis10.1, which generates six different risk maps covering the aspects of economy, society, life, environment, disasters, and an overall assessment of the five areas. Furthermore, the study also investigates the spatial pattern of these risk maps, with detailed discussion and analysis of different risks in coastal cities.

Drawing together approaches and experiences in the Italian coastal research: the new challenges of RITMARE Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonaldo, Davide

2017-04-01

The increasing awareness of the potential threats acting on the coastal regions, combined with the intense anthropic pressure and the broad variety of socio-economic drivers acting on these systems, bestowed progressively stronger emphasis to the development of sound planning and management policies. The assessment and the formulation of plans for the response to coastal morphological vulnerability is a multidisciplinary challenge, in which different typology of information, approaches and scales need to be integrated and framed within a consistent dynamical description. To this aim, within the RITMARE National Flagship Project, a specific research line on "Coastal Vulnerability to Erosion and Relative Sea level rise in climate change scenarios" was activated with reference to the Adriatic-Ionian region (Eastern Mediterranean Sea). The activities, supported by the Italian Ministry of University and Research 2016-18, move along three interconnected branches, namely: 1) Assessment of vulnerability to relative sea level rise in the Adriatic-Ionian region, in present conditions and in different climate change scenarios; 2) Development of high-resolution oceanographic modelling tools for the description of meteo-marine climate and sediment transport at different scales and rapid response intervention protocols for the evaluation of the impact of erosive events on sandy sediments; 3) Identification of possible geomorphological setting scenarios and definition of intervention strategies, with special care to the exploitment of marine sand as a strategic resource. The work provides an overview of the strategy underlying the Research Line and present preliminary results and main achievements. Next steps will be aiming to pave the way towards a road map for an integrated observational and modelling approach for monitoring and managing the erosion and marine ingression risk throughout Italian coasts, striving to bridge the cultural and methodological gaps between the scientific and administrative sectors active in the coastal management field.

Linking River Basin Modifications and Rural Soil and Water Management Practices in Tropical Deltas to Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, K. G.; Brondizio, E.; Roy, K.; Syvitski, J. P.

2015-12-01

The increased vulnerability of deltaic communities to coastal flooding as a result of upstream engineering has been acknowledged for decades. What has received less attention is the sensitivity of deltas to the interactions between river basin modifications and local scale cultivation and irrigation. Combined with reduced river and sediment discharge, soil and water management practices in coastal areas may exacerbate the risk of tidal flooding, erosion of arable land, and salinization of soils and groundwater associated with sea level rise. This represents a cruel irony to smallholder subsistence farmers whose priorities are food, water and economic security, rather than sustainability of the environment. Such issues challenge disciplinary approaches and require integrated social-biophysical models able to understand and diagnose these complex relationships. This study applies a new conceptual framework to define the relevant social and physical units operating on the common pool resources of climate, water and sediment in the Bengal Delta (Bangladesh). The new framework will inform development of a nested geospatial analysis and a coupled model to identify multi-scale social-biophysical feedbacks associated with smallholder soil and water management practices, coastal dynamics, basin modification, and climate vulnerability in tropical deltas. The framework was used to create household surveys for collecting data on climate perceptions, land and water management, and governance. Test surveys were administered to rural farmers in 14 villages during a reconnaissance visit to coastal Bangladesh. Initial results demonstrate complexity and heterogeneity at the local scale in both biophysical conditions and decision-making. More importantly, the results illuminate how national and geopolitical-level policies scale down to impact local-level environmental and social stability in communities already vulnerable to coastal flooding. Here, we will discuss components of the new conceptual framework, present results from the test surveys, and demonstrate how the framework can be dynamically adapted to reflect complex interactions at multiple scales.

Study of groundwater vulnerability to pollution using the DRASTIC method coupled with a geographic information system (GIS): application to groundwater Beni Amir, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knouz, Najat; Boudhar, Abdelghani; Bachaoui, El Mostafa

2016-04-01

Fresh water is the condition of all life on Earth for its vital role in the survival of living beings and in the social, economic and technological development. The Groundwater, as the surface water, is increasingly threatened by agricultural and industrial pollution. In this respect, the groundwater vulnerability assessment to pollution is a very valuable tool for resource protection, management of its quality and uses it in a sustainable way. The main objective of this study is the evaluation of groundwater vulnerability to pollution of the study area, Beni Amir, located in the first irrigated perimeter of Morocco, Tadla, using the DRASTIC method (depth to water, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, Topography, impact of Vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity), and assessing the impact of each parameter on the DRASTIC vulnerability index by a sensitivity analysis. This study also highlights the role of geographic information systems (GIS) in assessing vulnerability. The Vulnerability index is calculated as the sum of product of ratings and weights assigned to each of the parameter DRASTIC. The results revealed four vulnerability classes, 7% of the study area has a high vulnerability, 31% are moderately vulnerable, 57% have a low vulnerability and 5% are of very low vulnerability.

Spatial-explicit modeling of social vulnerability to malaria in East Africa

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Despite efforts in eradication and control, malaria remains a global challenge, particularly affecting vulnerable groups. Despite the recession in malaria cases, previously malaria free areas are increasingly confronted with epidemics as a result of changing environmental and socioeconomic conditions. Next to modeling transmission intensities and probabilities, integrated spatial methods targeting the complex interplay of factors that contribute to social vulnerability are required to effectively reduce malaria burden. We propose an integrative method for mapping relative levels of social vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner to support the identification of intervention measures. Methods Based on a literature review, a holistic risk and vulnerability framework has been developed to guide the assessment of social vulnerability to water-related vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in the context of changing environmental and societal conditions. Building on the framework, this paper applies spatially explicit modeling for delineating homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria in eastern Africa, while taking into account expert knowledge for weighting the single vulnerability indicators. To assess the influence of the selected indicators on the final index a local sensitivity analysis is carried out. Results Results indicate that high levels of malaria vulnerability are concentrated in the highlands, where immunity within the population is currently low. Additionally, regions with a lack of access to education and health services aggravate vulnerability. Lower values can be found in regions with relatively low poverty, low population pressure, low conflict density and reduced contributions from the biological susceptibility domain. Overall, the factors characterizing vulnerability vary spatially in the region. The vulnerability index reveals a high level of robustness in regard to the final choice of input datasets, with the exception of the immunity indicator which has a marked impact on the composite vulnerability index. Conclusions We introduce a conceptual framework for modeling risk and vulnerability to VBDs. Drawing on the framework we modeled social vulnerability to malaria in the context of global change using a spatially explicit approach. The results provide decision makers with place-specific options for targeting interventions that aim at reducing the burden of the disease amongst the different vulnerable population groups. PMID:25127688

Clinical-Functional Vulnerability Index-20 (IVCF-20): rapid recognition of frail older adults

PubMed Central

de Moraes, Edgar Nunes; do Carmo, Juliana Alves; de Moraes, Flávia Lanna; Azevedo, Raquel Souza; Machado, Carla Jorge; Montilla, Dalia Elena Romero

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To evaluate the adequacy of the Clinical-Functional Vulnerability Index-20, a rapid triage instrument to test vulnerability in Brazilian older adults, for the use in primary health care. METHODS The study included convenience sample of 397 patients aged older than or equal to 60 years attended at Centro de Referência para o Idoso (Reference Center for Older Adults) and of 52 older adults the same age attended at the community. The results of the questionnaire, consisting of 20 questions, were compared with those of the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment, considered a reference for identifying frail older adults. Spearman’s correlation was evaluated in the Clinical-Functional Vulnerability Index-20 with the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment; the validity was verified by the area under the ROC curve; reliability was estimated by the percentage of agreement among evaluators and by the kappa coefficient, both with quadratic weighted. The cut-off point was obtained based on the higher accuracy criterion. Cronbach’s alpha, a measure of internal consistency, was estimated. RESULTS The Spearman’s correlation coefficient was high and positive for both groups (0.792 for older adults attended at the Reference Center and 0.305 for older adults from the community [p < 0.001]). The area under the ROC curve for older adults attended at the Reference Center was substantial (0.903). The cut-off point obtained was six, and older adults with scores in Clinical-Functional Vulnerability Index-20 above that value had strong possibility of being frail. For older adults from the community, the quadratic weighted agreement among evaluators was 99.5%, and the global quadratic weighted kappa coefficient was 0.94. Cronbach’s alpha was high for older adults attended at the Reference Center (0.861) and those attended at the community (0.740). CONCLUSIONS The Clinical-Functional Vulnerability Index-20 questionnaire, in the sample examined, turned out to be positively correlated with the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment, in addition to the results indicating a high degree of validity and reliability. Thus, the Clinical-Functional Vulnerability Index-20 proves to be viable as a triage instrument in the primary health care that identifies frail older adults (older adults at risk of weakening and frail older adults). PMID:28099667

Risk analysis of landslide disaster in Ponorogo, East Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koesuma, S.; Saido, A. P.; Fukuda, Y.

2016-11-01

Ponorogo is one of regency in South-West of East Java Province, Indonesia, where located in subduction zone between Eurasia and Australia plate tectonics. It has a lot of mountain area which is disaster-prone area for landslide. We have collected landslide data in 305 villages in Ponorogo and make it to be Hazards Index. Then we also calculate Vulnerability Index, Economic Loss index, Environmental Damage Index and Capacity Index. The risk analysis map is composed of three components H (Hazards), V (Vulnerability, Economic Loss index, Environmental Damage Index) and C (Capacity Index). The method is based on regulations of National Disaster Management Authority (BNPB) number 02/2012 and number 03/2012. It has three classes of risk index, i.e. Low, Medium and High. Ponorogo city has a medium landslide risk index.

Bangladesh Delta: Assessment of the Causes of Sea-level Rise Hazards and Integrated Development of Predictive Modeling Towards Mitigation and Adaptation (BanD-AID)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusche, J.; Shum, C. K.; Jenkins, C. J.; Chen, J.; Guo, J.; Hossain, F.; Braun, B.; Calmant, S.; Ballu, V.; Papa, F.; Kuhn, M.; Ahmed, R.; Khan, Z. H.; Hossain, M.; Bernzen, A.; Dai, C.; Jia, Y.; Krien, Y.; Kuo, C. Y.; Liibusk, A.; Shang, K.; Testut, L.; Tseng, K. H.; Uebbing, B.; Rietbroek, R.; Valty, P.; Wan, J.

2016-12-01

As a low-lying and the largest coastal deltaic region in the world, Bangladesh already faces tremendous vulnerability. Accelerated sea-level rise, along with tectonic, sediment load and groundwater extraction induced land uplift/subsidence, have exacerbated Bangladesh's coastal vulnerability. Climate change has further intensified these risks with increasing temperatures, greater rainfall volatility, and increased incidence of intensified cyclones, in addition to its seasonal transboundary monsoonal flooding. Our Belmont Forum/IGFA G8 project BanD-AiD, http://Belmont-BanDAiD.org, or http://Blemont-SeaLevel.org, comprises of an international cross-disciplinary team including stakeholders in Bangladesh, aims at a joint assessment of the physical and social science knowledge of the physical and social dynamics which govern coastal vulnerability and societal resilience in Bangladesh. We have built a prototype observational system, following the Belmont Challenge identified Earth System Analysis & Prediction System (ESAPS) for the Bangladesh Delta, to achieve the physical science objectives of the project. The prototype observational system is exportable to other regions of the world. We studied the physical causes of relative sea-level rise in coastal Bangladesh, with the goal to separate and quantify land subsidence and geocentric sea-level rise signals at adequate spatial scales using contemporary space geodetic and remote sensing data. We used a social and natural science integrative approach to investigate the various social and economic drivers behind land use change, population increase migration and community resilience to understand the social dynamics of this complex region and to forecast likely and alternative scenarios for maintaining the societal resilience of this vital region which currently houses a quarter of Bangladesh's 160 million people.

Beyond the Dams: Linking Rural Smallholder Soil and Water Management Practices in Tropical Deltas to Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, K. G.; Syvitski, J. P.; Brondizio, E. S.

2014-12-01

The increased vulnerability of deltaic communities to coastal flooding as a result of upstream engineering has been acknowledged for decades. What has received less attention is the sensitivity of deltas to the interactions of river basin modifications and cultivation and irrigation in their coastal regions, particularly in tropical deltas. Embanking, tilling, and crop or stock choice all affect the movement of sediment and water on deltas. Combined with reduced river and sediment discharge, soil and water management practices in coastal areas may in fact exacerbate the risk of tidal flooding, erosion of arable land, and salinization of soils and groundwater associated with sea level rise. Thus exists a cruel irony to smallholder subsistence farmers whose priorities are food, water and economic security, rather than sustainability of the regional environment. Such issues challenge disciplinary approaches and require integrated social-biophysical models able to understand and diagnose these complex relationships. The complementary Institutional Analysis and Development and SocioEcological Systems frameworks are applied to the southwestern Bengal Delta (Bangladesh). The method helps to define the relevant social and physical units operating on the common pool of environmental resources, those of climate, water and sediment. The conceptual frameworks are designed to inform development of a nested geospatial analysis and a dynamic coupled model to identify the social-biophysical feedbacks associated with smallholder soil and water management practices, coastal dynamics, and climate vulnerability in rural Bangladesh. Our presentation will discuss components of the conceptual frameworks and will introduce a bi-directional pilot study designed for obtaining and disseminating information about environmental change to farmers in southwest Bangladesh with potential application to rural farming communities in other tropical deltas.

[Characteristics of temporal-spatial differentiation in landscape pattern vulnerability in Nansihu Lake wetland, China.

PubMed

Liang, Jia Xin; Li, Xin Ju

2018-02-01

With remote sensing images from 1985, 2000 Lantsat 5 TM and 2015 Lantsat 8 OLI as data sources, we tried to select the suitable research scale and examine the temporal-spatial diffe-rentiation with such scale in the Nansihu Lake wetland by using landscape pattern vulnerability index constructed by sensitivity index and adaptability index, and combined with space statistics such as semivariogram and spatial autocorrelation. The results showed that 1 km × 1 km equidistant grid was the suitable research scale, which could eliminate the influence of spatial heterogeneity induced by random factors. From 1985 to 2015, the landscape pattern vulnerability in the Nansihu Lake wetland deteriorated gradually. The high-risk area of landscape pattern vulnerability dramatically expanded with time. The spatial heterogeneity of landscape pattern vulnerability increased, and the influence of non-structural factors on landscape pattern vulnerability strengthened. Spatial variability affected by spatial autocorrelation slightly weakened. Landscape pattern vulnerability had strong general spatial positive correlation, with the significant form of spatial agglomeration. The positive spatial autocorrelation continued to increase and the phenomenon of spatial concentration was more and more obvious over time. The local autocorrelation mainly based on high-high accumulation zone and low-low accumulation zone had stronger spatial autocorrelation among neighboring space units. The high-high accumulation areas showed the strongest level of significance, and the significant level of low-low accumulation zone increased with time. Natural factors, such as temperature and precipitation, affected water-level and landscape distribution, and thus changed the landscape patterns vulnerability of Nansihu Lake wetland. The dominant driver for the deterioration of landscape patterns vulnerability was human activities, including social economy activity and policy system.

Development of a coastal drought index using salinity data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrads, Paul; Darby, Lisa S.

2017-01-01

A critical aspect of the uniqueness of coastal drought is the effects on the salinity dynamics of creeks, rivers, and estuaries. The location of the freshwater–saltwater interface along the coast is an important factor in the ecological and socioeconomic dynamics of coastal communities. Salinity is a critical response variable that integrates hydrologic and coastal dynamics including sea level, tides, winds, precipitation, streamflow, and tropical storms. The position of the interface determines the composition of freshwater and saltwater aquatic communities as well as the freshwater availability for water intakes. Many definitions of drought have been proposed, with most describing a decline in precipitation having negative impacts on the water supply. Indices have been developed incorporating data such as rainfall, streamflow, soil moisture, and groundwater levels. These water-availability drought indices were developed for upland areas and may not be ideal for characterizing coastal drought. The availability of real-time and historical salinity datasets provides an opportunity for the development of a salinity-based coastal drought index. An approach similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was modified and applied to salinity data obtained from sites in South Carolina and Georgia. Using the SPI approach, the index becomes a coastal salinity index (CSI) that characterizes coastal salinity conditions with respect to drought periods of higher-saline conditions and wet periods of higher-freshwater conditions. Evaluation of the CSI indicates that it provides additional coastal response information as compared to the SPI and the Palmer hydrologic drought index, and the CSI can be used for different estuary types and for comparison of conditions along coastlines.

Study on the Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment in Sanjiang Plain in Northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Tang, W. K.; Liu, C.

2012-12-01

The Sanjiang Plain is located in eastern part of China's Heilongjiang Province.It's total area is 109 000 km2, with cultivated land area being 3.6677 million hm2. It is a major national commodity grain base. Rice planting area in Sanjiang Plain has been increasing year by year. Groundwater exploitation is increasing rapidly as a result of rapid increase of paddy field area. It is necessary to research and analyze spatial diversity of groundwater pollution vulnerability for Sanjiang Plain, so as to fulfill the goal of integrated planning, rational utilization of land and water resource, avoiding or minimizing groundwater contamination, and protecting grain security of China. Based on the commonly used DRASTIC method internationally, and according to hydrogeology, land use and other characteristics of Sanjiang Plain, this paper establishes groundwater vulnerability assessment index system. Since the Sanjiang Plain is an area that gives priority to agriculture, and impact of agricultural land and agricultural activity on groundwater vulnerability can not be ignored. Two indicators of agricultural land use rate (L) and population density (P) are increased in the DRASTC index system, the remaining 5 indicators are groundwater depth (D), aquifer net recharge(R), aquifer media type (A), soil type(S), aquifer hydraulic conductivity (C). Taking ArcGis as a calculation analysis platform to assess groundwater vulnerability of the Sanjiang Plain, by using hierarchical analysis method of the fuzzy mathematics method to calculate each index weigh of evaluation vulnerability. This paper applies 6 levels of assessment standard as follows: vulnerability index DI <2 stands for not vulnerable; 2 8 stands for extremely vulnerable. Groundwater vulnerably contaminated area is delineated based on the groundwater vulnerability spatial distribution of Sanjiang Plain. Reasonable land use plan should be made, and strictly groundwater protection measures should be taken to reduce the risk of groundwater contamination.

Impact of Sea Level Rise on Mangrove Ecosystem and its Dependent Fishing Communities in the Coastal Regions of Cauvery Delta: A Message for Policy Planners to Frame Suitable Antcipatory Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amsad Ibrahim Khan, S. K.; Ramachandran, A.; Kandasamy, P.; Selvam, V.; Shanmugam, P.

2014-12-01

Coastal adaptation to sea-level rise (SLR) in the deltaic region is a multidimensional and complex process requiring informed decisions based on predicted impact and vulnerability assessment of SLR. Elevation plays a key role in determining the impact and vulnerability of coastal land areas to inundation from SLR. Highly accurate mapping of the elevation of the landscape is essential to identify low-lying coastal deltaic regions with valuable ecosystem like mangroves and its dependent human communities that are potentially at risk of inundation. It is difficult for policy planners and decision makers to identify suitable adaptation strategies without having information on the predicted impact and degree of vulnerability of coastal systems to SLR. Importantly, modeling and mapping will provide valuable input to climate change adaptation planning (NOAA 2010). Unfortunately, the comprehensive range of information that is typically required is seldom available and rarely in the possession of decision makers responsible for management of the deltaic and coastal zone (O'Regan, 1996). The present study seeks to provide insights on predicted impact of climate change induced SLR on mangrove ecosystem and its dependent human communities of Pichavaram mangroves, located at the Vellar-Coleroon estuarine region on the banks of Cauvery delta, Tamil Nadu, India. Based on real-time on-ground elevation measurement by DGPS (Differential Global Positioning System) survey and by using GIS portals, the study has identified about 597 ha of mangroves (one third of total mangrove regions) and about 9 fishing hamlets with 12,000 and more of human population that directly depends on this mangrove ecosystem for their livelihood are under threat of inundation to the predicted impact of 0.5m SLR. The present study is intended to showcase a method by providing reliable scientific information on predicted impact of SLR on mangroves and its dependent human communities to policy planner for informed decision making. Very importantly, this study has made an attempt to develop a robust picture of ecosystem based and community centered anticipatory adaptation strategies to the risk of rising sea level that are grounded in pressing community priorities of coastal regions of Cauvery delta.

Defining Resilience and Vulnerability Based on Ontology Engineering Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumazawa, T.; Matsui, T.; Endo, A.

2014-12-01

It is necessary to reflect the concepts of resilience and vulnerability into the assessment framework of "Human-Environmental Security", but it is also in difficulty to identify the linkage between both concepts because of the difference of the academic community which has discussed each concept. The authors have been developing the ontology which deals with the sustainability of the social-ecological systems (SESs). Resilience and vulnerability are also the concepts in the target world which this ontology covers. Based on this point, this paper aims at explicating the semantic relationship between the concepts of resilience and vulnerability based on ontology engineering approach. For this purpose, we first examine the definitions of resilience and vulnerability which the existing literatures proposed. Second, we incorporate the definitions in the ontology dealing with sustainability of SESs. Finally, we focus on the "Water-Energy-Food Nexus Index" to assess Human-Environmental Security, and clarify how the concepts of resilience and vulnerability are linked semantically through the concepts included in these index items.

Multiple flood vulnerability assessment approach based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and coordinated development degree model.

PubMed

Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao

2018-05-01

Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability Analysis and Evaluation of Urban Road System in Tianjin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y. Q.; Wu, X.

In recent years, with the development of economy, the road construction of our country has entered into a period of rapid growth. The road transportation network has been expanding and the risk of disasters is increasing. In this paper we study the vulnerability of urban road system in Tianjin. After analyzed many risk factors of the urban road system security, including road construction, road traffic and the natural environment, we proposed an evaluation index of vulnerability of urban road system and established the corresponding evaluation index system. Based on the results of analysis and comprehensive evaluation, appropriate improvement measures and suggestions which may reduce the vulnerability of the road system and improve the safety and reliability of the road system are proposed.

The impact of legal vulnerability on environmental inequalities. A case study of coastal populations in Guadeloupe (French Antilles)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claeys, Cécilia; Arnaud, Aurélie; Lambert, Marie-Laure

2017-10-01

This paper draws on sociology, geography and law to analyse the exposure of populations to coastal multihazards in a postcolonial and overseas context. The research is based on a case study conducted in two municipalities in Guadeloupe (French Antilles): Deshaies and Capesterre-Belle-Eau. The corpus of data consists of 52 interviews conducted with inhabitants and institutional actors, as well as a set of spatialized data and a regulatory corpus. The analysis underscores how public policies must contend with a complex territorial reality that is still bound to the postcolonial past and legacy of slavery in Guadeloupe. The potential contradictions between regularization policies, hazard prevention policies and policies to curb insalubrious housing tend to expose the most fragile populations to what we refer to here as legal vulnerability.

[Vulnerability assessment of eco-environment in Yimeng mountainous area of Shandong Province based on SRP conceptual model].

PubMed

Liu, Zheng-jia; Yu, Xing-xiu; Li, Lei; Huang, Mei

2011-08-01

Based on the ecological sensitivity-resilience-pressure (SRP) conceptual model, and selecting 13 indices including landscape diversity index, soil erosion, and elevation, etc. , the vulnerability of the eco-environment in Yimeng mountainous area of Shandong Province was assessed under the support of GIS and by using principal component analysis and hierarchy analytical method. According to the eco-environmental vulnerability index (EVI) values, the eco-environment vulnerability of study area was classified into 5 levels, i.e., slight (<1.8), light (1.8-2.8), moderate (2.8-3.5), heavy (3.5-4.0), and extreme vulnerability (>4.0). In the study area, moderately vulnerable area occupied 43.3% of the total, while the slightly, lightly, heavily, and extremely vulnerable areas occupied 6.1%, 33.8%, 15.9%, and 0.9%, respectively. The heavily and extremely vulnerable areas mainly located in the topographically complicated hilly area or the hill-plain ecotone with frequent human activities.

Vulnerability of the Built Environment to Tsunamis - an Overview of Where We Are in 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petroff, C. M.

2012-12-01

The last twenty years have seen great strides in the understanding and prediction of tsunami behavior. Though study of these disasters has always been motivated by the need to reduce casualties and damage, early work focused primarily on predicting magnitude, propagation and inundation from tsunami waves. Investigations have expanded to include a burgeoning field concentrated on the landward effects of tsunamis on communities: examining building and infrastructure vulnerability, assessing the probabilities of varying levels of damage and applying these findings to planning of land-use, development, evacuation and response. Catastrophic events of the last decade in the Indian Ocean and Japan have brought these issues to the fore and raise the question: Where are we in our understanding of vulnerability to tsunamis? What have we learned? What are the lessons that the most recent events teach us? This overview summarizes recent investigations of the vulnerability of engineered structures to damage from tsunamis - from individual buildings of various uses to larger facilities and structural systems. Examples are provided of both successes and failures in design for tsunami resistance. Vulnerability of critical infrastructure and lifelines is discussed in the context of tsunamis in Sumatra, Chile and Japan. This includes the ability of critical systems to function during and immediately after a disaster as well as the short and long term resilience of utilities, services and coastal facilities after tsunamis. Recent work on probabilistic prediction of damage and development of fragility functions is summarized for the Chile 2010 and Japan 2011 tsunamis. Finally, a commentary is presented on building vulnerability issues as they relate to land use planning, building design and codes and vertical evacuation planning.; Three views of the Oya Train Station in Miyagi Prefecture: Prior to (top), two months after (middle), and one year after (bottom) the March 11, 2011 Tohoku Japan tsunami. The top view shows the rail line, shops, residences, coastal vegetation, tourist beach and coastal slope protection. All these were damaged or destroyed in the tsunami. One year after, a sand bag barrier had been installed inland of remaining low profile shore protection at Oya Kaigan. Rail lines had not been replaced and the station building remained closed. The area remained evacuated. Power line installation and road repairs were complete. (top photo courtesy F. Imamura)

Vulnerability Factors and Effectiveness of Disaster Mitigation Measures in the Bangladesh Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossain, Md. Nazir; Paul, Shitangsu Kumar

2018-05-01

The major objective of this paper is to identify the vulnerability factors and examine the effectiveness of disaster mitigation measures undertaken by individuals, government and non-government organisations to mitigate the impacts of cyclones in the Bangladesh coast experiencing from Cyclone Aila. The primary data were collected from two villages of southwestern coastal areas of Bangladesh using questionnaire survey and interviews of the key informants. The data were analysed using the descriptive and inferential statistics. This paper reveals that the disaster management measures have a significant role to lessen the impacts of the cyclonic event, especially in pre-disaster preparedness, cyclone warning message dissemination, evacuation and post-disaster rehabilitation. The households, who have access to shelter, find weather forecast regularly and adopted pre-disaster awareness measures are relatively less susceptible to hazard's impacts. The disaster management measures undertaken by individuals and GOs and NGOs help coastal people to save their lives and property from the negative impacts of cyclones. The analysis shows that the NGOs' role is more effective and efficient than the GOs in cyclone disaster management. This paper identifies distance to shelter, participation in disaster training, efficient warning, etc. as the influential factors of vulnerability cyclones. The analysis finds the households as less affected who have adopted disaster preparedness measures. However, this paper concludes that the effective and proper disaster management and mitigation measures are very crucial to shield the lives and properties of the Bangladeshi coastal people.

Adaptation Planning for the National Estuary Program

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document is a resource for coastal communities to start planning to adapt to climate change. It describes elements, such as vulnerability assessments and stakeholder outreach, and provides examples as well as suggestions for additional resources.

Vulnerability Factors and Effectiveness of Disaster Mitigation Measures in the Bangladesh Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossain, Md. Nazir; Paul, Shitangsu Kumar

2018-01-01

The major objective of this paper is to identify the vulnerability factors and examine the effectiveness of disaster mitigation measures undertaken by individuals, government and non-government organisations to mitigate the impacts of cyclones in the Bangladesh coast experiencing from Cyclone Aila. The primary data were collected from two villages of southwestern coastal areas of Bangladesh using questionnaire survey and interviews of the key informants. The data were analysed using the descriptive and inferential statistics. This paper reveals that the disaster management measures have a significant role to lessen the impacts of the cyclonic event, especially in pre-disaster preparedness, cyclone warning message dissemination, evacuation and post-disaster rehabilitation. The households, who have access to shelter, find weather forecast regularly and adopted pre-disaster awareness measures are relatively less susceptible to hazard's impacts. The disaster management measures undertaken by individuals and GOs and NGOs help coastal people to save their lives and property from the negative impacts of cyclones. The analysis shows that the NGOs' role is more effective and efficient than the GOs in cyclone disaster management. This paper identifies distance to shelter, participation in disaster training, efficient warning, etc. as the influential factors of vulnerability cyclones. The analysis finds the households as less affected who have adopted disaster preparedness measures. However, this paper concludes that the effective and proper disaster management and mitigation measures are very crucial to shield the lives and properties of the Bangladeshi coastal people.

Indications of a positive feedback between coastal development and beach nourishment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armstrong, Scott; Lazarus, Eli; Limber, Patrick W.; Goldstein, Evan; Thorpe, Curtis; Ballinger, Rhoda

2016-01-01

Beach nourishment, a method for mitigating coastal storm damage or chronic erosion by deliberately replacing sand on an eroded beach, has been the leading form of coastal protection in the U.S. for four decades. However, investment in hazard protection can have the unintended consequence of encouraging development in places especially vulnerable to damage. In a comprehensive, parcel-scale analysis of all shorefront single-family homes in the state of Florida, we find that houses in nourishing zones are significantly larger and more numerous than in non-nourishing zones. The predominance of larger homes in nourishing zones suggests a positive feedback between nourishment and development that is compounding coastal risk in zones already characterized by high vulnerability.

The role of vegetation in shaping dune morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duran Vinent, O.; Moore, L. J.; Young, D.

2012-12-01

Aeolian dunes naturally emerge under strong winds and sufficient sand supply. They represent the most dynamical feature of the arid and/or coastal landscape and their evolution has the potential to either increase desertification or reduce coastal vulnerability to storms. Although large-scale dune morphology mainly depends on the wind regime and sand availability, vegetation plays an important role in semiarid and/or coastal areas. It is well known that under certain conditions vegetation is able to stabilize dunes, driving a morphological transformation from un-vegetated mobile crescent dunes to static vegetated "parabolic" dunes, de facto paralyzing desertification and initiating land recovery. Furthermore, vegetation is also the primary ingredient in the formation of coastal foredunes, which determine vulnerability to storms, as low dunes are prone to storm-induced erosion and overwash. In both cases, the coupling of biological and geomorphic (physical) processes, in particular vegetation growth and sand transport, governs the evolution of morphology. These processes were implemented in a computational model as part of a previous effort. It was shown that, for a migrating dune, this coupling leads to a negative feedback for dune motion, where an ever denser vegetation implies ever lesser sand transport. The model also predicted the existence of a "mobility index", defined by the vegetation growth rate to sand erosion rate ratio, that fully characterizes the morphological outcome: for indices above a certain threshold biological processes are dominant and dune motion slows after being covered by plants; for lower indices, the physical processes are the dominant ones and the dune remains mobile while vegetation is buried or rooted out. Here, we extend this model to better understand the formation of coastal dunes. We include new physical elements such as the shoreline and water table, as well as different grass species and potential competition among them. Consistent with field observations, we find that basic dune morphology is primarily determined by grass species, with linear or hummocky dunes being built by some species, while others may prevent dune formation. We also find that the evolution of coastal dune morphology is controlled by at least two bio-geomorphic couplings: (1) between vegetation growth and sand transport, which leads to a positive feedback for dune growth, as certain beach grasses maximize growth under sand accretion, which means that an ever denser vegetation implies an ever higher accretion rate; and (2) between vegetation growth and shoreline position through the sand influx. While the first coupling is responsible for dune formation, the second one determines when dunes stop growing and thus controls final dune size. This is particularly relevant for accreting/eroding coastlines where we find that dune size, and thus coastal protection, is maximized for relatively small accretion rates while larger accretion rates lead to formation of a new, smaller dune ridge at the beach.

A framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment for southwest U.S. military installations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chadwick, B.; Flick, Reinhard; Helly, J.; Nishikawa, Tracy; Pei, Fang Wang; O'Reilly, W.; Guza, R.; Bromirski, Peter; Young, A.; Crampton, W.; Wild, B.; Canner, I.

2011-01-01

We describe an analysis framework to determine military installation vulnerabilities under increases in local mean sea level as projected over the next century. The effort is in response to an increasing recognition of potential climate change ramifications for national security and recommendations that DoD conduct assessments of the impact on U.S. military installations of climate change. Results of the effort described here focus on development of a conceptual framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment at coastal military installations in the southwest U.S. We introduce the vulnerability assessment in the context of a risk assessment paradigm that incorporates sources in the form of future sea level conditions, pathways of impact including inundation, flooding, erosion and intrusion, and a range of military installation specific receptors such as critical infrastructure and training areas. A unique aspect of the methodology is the capability to develop wave climate projections from GCM outputs and transform these to future wave conditions at specific coastal sites. Future sea level scenarios are considered in the context of installation sensitivity curves which reveal response thresholds specific to each installation, pathway and receptor. In the end, our goal is to provide a military-relevant framework for assessment of accelerated SLR vulnerability, and develop the best scientifically-based scenarios of waves, tides and storms and their implications for DoD installations in the southwestern U.S.

Vulnerability of Coastal Wetlands in the Southeastern United States: Climate Change Research Results, 1992-97.

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-09-01

pro- jected to have significant regional impacts on resource management and use of these public lands . Southeastern coastal wetlands have also... land tree and shrub species. Measures of plant physiological activity using experi- mentally simulated environmental conditions predicted to occur...Hence, short- term rates of marsh transgression may be meaningless and may not be useful tools to predict wetland habitat change, at least for some

Relations between species rarity, vulnerability, and range contraction for a beetle group in a densely populated region in the Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Fattorini, Simone

2014-02-01

Rarity is often considered an indication of species extinction risk, and it is frequently used to obtain measures of species vulnerability. However, there is no strong evidence of a correlation between species vulnerability and threat. Moreover, there is no consensus about how rarity should be measured. I used a multidimensional characterization of species rarity to calculate a vulnerability index for tenebrionid beetles inhabiting an Italian region in the Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot. I used different metrics to examine 3 dimensions of rarity: species range, ecology, and population. Species with rarity values below the median were scored as rare for each dimension. I combined rarity scores into a vulnerability index. I then correlated species vulnerability with range trends (expanded vs. contracted). Different measures of the same rarity dimension were strongly correlated and produced similar vulnerability scores. This result indicates rarity-based vulnerability estimates are slightly affected by the way a certain rarity dimension is measured. Vulnerability was correlated with range trends; species with the highest vulnerability had the strongest range contraction. However, a large number of common species also underwent range contraction in the last 50 years, and there was no clear relation between range contraction and their ecology. This indicates that in general human-induced environmental changes affected species irrespective of their assumed vulnerability and that focusing only on rare species may severely bias perceptions of the extent of species decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Identifying hotspots of coastal risk and evaluating DRR measures: results from the RISC-KIT project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Dongeren, A.; Ciavola, P.; Viavattene, C.; Dekleermaeker, S.; Martinez, G.; Ferreira, O.; Costa, C.

2016-02-01

High-impact storm events have demonstrated the vulnerability of coastal zones in Europe and beyond. These impacts are likely to increase due to predicted climate change and ongoing coastal development. In order to reduce impacts, disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures need to be taken, which prevent or mitigate the effects of storm events. To drive the DRR agenda, the UNISDR formulated the Sendai Framework for Action, and the EU has issued the Floods Directive. However, neither is specific about the methods to be used to develop actionable DRR measures in the coastal zone. Therefore, there is a need to develop methods, tools and approaches which make it possible to: identify and prioritize the coastal zones which are most at risk through a Coastal Risk Assessment Framework, evaluate the effectiveness of DRR options for these coastal areas, using an Early Warning/Decision Support System, which can be used both in the planning and event-phase. This paper gives an overview of the products and results obtained in the FP7-funded project RISC-KIT, which aims to develop and apply a set of tools with which highly-vulnerable coastal areas (so-called "hotspots") can be identified. The identification is done using the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework, or CRAF, which computes the intensity from multi-hazards, the exposure and the vulnerability, all components of risk, including network and cascading effects. Based on this analysis hot spots of risk which warrant coastal protection investments are selected. For these hotspot areas, high-resolution Early Warning and Decision Support Tools are developed with which it is possible to compute in detail the effectiveness of Disaster Risk Reduction measures in storm event scenarios, which helps decide which measures to implement in the planning phase. The same systems, but now driven with real time data, can also be used for early warning systems. All tools are tested on eleven case study areas, at least one on each EU Regional Sea, and one international case in Bangladesh. Promising DRR measures and experiences are collected in a web-based Management Guide, and information on storm impacts is stored in a Coastal Risk Database.

National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards: Northeast Atlantic Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Birchler, Justin J.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Doran, Kara S.; Thompson, David M.

2014-01-01

Extreme coastal changes caused by hurricanes may increase the vulnerability of communities both during a storm and to future storms. For example, when sand dunes are substantially eroded, inland structures are exposed to storm surge and waves. On barrier islands, absent or low dunes allow water to flow inland across the island, potentially increasing storm surge in the back bay, on the sound-side of the barrier, and on the mainland.

Sea level rise impacts on wastewater treatment systems along the U.S. coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hummel, M.; Berry, M.; Stacey, M. T.

2017-12-01

As sea levels rise, coastal communities will experience more frequent and persistent nuisance flooding, and some low-lying areas may be permanently inundated. Critical components of lifeline infrastructure networks in these areas are also at risk of flooding, which could cause significant service disruptions that extend beyond the flooded zone. Thus, identifying critical infrastructure components that are vulnerable to sea level rise is an important first step in developing targeted investment in protective actions and enhancing the overall resilience of coastal communities. Wastewater treatment plants are typically located at low elevations near the coastline to minimize the cost of collecting consumed water and discharging treated effluent, which makes them particularly susceptible to coastal flooding. For this analysis, we used geographic information systems to assess the vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure to various sea level rise projections at the national level. We then estimated the number of people who would lose wastewater services, which could be more than three times as high as previous predictions of the number of people at risk of direct flooding due to sea level rise. We also considered several case studies of wastewater infrastructure in mid-sized cities to determine how topography and system configuration (centralized versus distributed) impact vulnerability. Overall, this analysis highlights the widespread vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure in the U.S. and demonstrates that local disruptions to infrastructure networks may have far-ranging impacts on areas that do not experience direct flooding.

Groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Banyas Catchment of the Syrian coastal area using GIS and the RISKE method.

PubMed

Kattaa, Bassam; Al-Fares, Walid; Al Charideh, Abdul Rahman

2010-05-01

Vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sensible resource management and landuse planning. This contribution aims at estimating aquifer vulnerability by applying the RISKE model in Banyas Catchment Area (BCA), Tartous Prefecture, west Syria. An additional objective is to demonstrate the combined use of the RISKE model and a geographical information system (GIS) as an effective method for groundwater pollution risk assessment. The RISKE model uses five environmental parameters (Rock of aquifer media, Infiltration, Soil media, Karst, and Epikarst) to characterize the hydro-geological setting and evaluate aquifer vulnerability. The elevated eastern and low western part of the study area was dominated by high vulnerability classes, while the middle part was characterized by moderate vulnerability classes. Based on the vulnerability analysis, it was found that 2% and 39% of BCA is under low and high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively, while more than 52% and 5% of the area of BCA can be designated as an area of moderate and very high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively. The GIS technique has provided an efficient environment for analyses and high capabilities of handling a large amount of spatial data. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hybrid framework for assessing maize drought vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamali, B.; Abbaspour, K. C.; Wehrli, B.; Yang, H.

2017-12-01

Drought has devastating impacts on crop yields. Quantifying drought vulnerability is the first step to better design of mitigation policies. The vulnerability of crop yield to drought has been assessed with different methods, however they lack a standardized base to measure its components and a procedure that facilitates spatial and temporal comparisons. This study attempts to quantify maize drought vulnerability through linking the Drought Exposure Index (DEI) to the Crop Failure Index (CFI). DEI and CFI were defined by fitting probability distribution functions to precipitation and maize yield respectively. To acquire crop drought vulnerability index (CDVI), DEI and CFI were combined in a hybrid framework which classifies CDVI with the same base as DEI and CFI. The analysis were implemented on Sub-Saharan African countries using maize yield simulated with the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model at 0.5° resolution. The model was coupled with the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm for calibration at country level. Our results show that Central Africa and those Western African countries located below the Sahelian strip receive higher amount of precipitation, but experience high crop failure. Therefore, they are identified as more vulnerable regions compared to countries such as South Africa, Tanzania, and Kenya. We concluded that our hybrid approach complements information on crop drought vulnerability quantification and can be applied to different regions and scales.

Vulnerability of sandy coasts to climate change and anthropic pressures: methodology and preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idier, D.; Poumadère, M.; Vinchon, C.; Romieu, E.; Oliveros, C.

2009-04-01

1-INTRODUCTION Climate change is considered in the latest reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC (2007) as unequivocal. Induced vulnerability of the system is defined as "the combination of sensitivity to climatic variations, probability of adverse effects, and adaptive capacity". Substantial methodological challenges remain, in particular estimating the risk of adverse climate change impacts and interpreting relative vulnerability across diverse situations. As stated by the IPCC, the "coastal systems should be considered vulnerable to changes in climate". In these areas, amongst the most serious impacts of sea-level rise (Nicholls, 1996) are erosion and marine inundation. Thus, the coast of metropolitan France, being composed of 31% sandy coasts, is potentially vulnerable, as it has been qualitatively assessed on the pilot coasts of Aquitaine and Languedoc-Roussillon in the RESPONSE project (Vinchon et al., 2008). Within the ANR VULSACO project (VULnerability of SAndy COast to climate change and anthropic pressure), the present day erosion tendencies as well as the potentially future erosion trends are investigated. The main objectives are to: (1) assess indicators of vulnerability to climate change for low-lying linear sandy coastal systems, from the shore to the hinterland, facing undergoing climate change and anthropic pressure until the 2030s; and (2) identify the aggravating or improving effect of human pressure on this vulnerability. This second issue is sometimes considered as a main driver of coastal risks. The methodology proposed in the project considers anthropic adaptation (or not) by putting decision makers in front of potential modifications of the physical system, to study the decision process and the choice of adaptation (or not). The coastal system is defined by its morphology, its physical characteristics and its land use. The time scales will range from short-term (days to weeks, e.g. time scale of extreme events) to medium-term (decades), whereas the space scales range from several tens of meters to several tens of kilometers. The project is based on the study of representative coastal units: 4 sites characterised by low-lying linear sandy beaches but different, representative, hydrodynamic and socio-economic environments. These sites are located in: Mediterranean Sea (Lido of Sète), Atlantic coast (Truc Vert beach and Noirmoutier island) and English channel coast (Est of Dunkerque). Each of these sites is studied following the same methodology, on both the physical and socio-economic dimensions, the aim being to identify vulnerability indicators regarding climate change and anthropic pressure. 2 - METHODOLOGY The work is based on the following methodology, for every site: 1) The compartments of the unit are defined: shoreface, coastline, backshore, hinterland, from a physical and socio-economical point of view. 2) The available data are analysed in order to provide some information on the present trend of the coastal unit, regarding climate change and anthropic pressure, but also to support the model validation. 3) The vulnerability is studied. On one hand, the socio-economic dimension is assessed and, in a risk governance perspective, stake holders are identified and involved. This part of the project combines the study of social perceptions of dangers along with a deliberative workshop. On the other hand, numerical models of the physical behaviour of shoreface and coastline are applied. The selected models cover a time scale from short-term (storm time scale) to long-term (decades). Then, vulnerability can be studied: the vulnerability of coast/beach is defined and studied based on in-situ observations and model results. Most of these models needs some forcing conditions (waves at the boundary of the computational domains for instance). The present day conditions can be potentially modified by climate change. However, the model and literature review on climate change show that the few prediction of wave conditions available for the future deal mainly with the significant wave height, and not so much with the wave direction or period. To compensate this lack of knowledge, a sensitivity study is done to get information on the possible changes within the next decades (2030). It consists in studying the influence of a modification in the characteristics of the present day forcing conditions(like waves) within a reasonable magnitude order. 4) The anthropic pressure is taken into account as a modulator of the physical vulnerability. In each context, participative techniques are used to involve representatives of the main stakeholder groups into decision-making simulations. The scenario of a storm in 2030 is adopted to provide structured interactions during the workshop. Along with socio-economic projections, this simulation relies upon a fictive journal article written on the basis of the model outputs. These methodological choices aim at better understanding how decisions are made by stake holders dealing with risks and scientific uncertainty. Some applied results on the study sites will be presented at the EGU. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The VULSACO project is financially supported by the ANR (French National Research Agency) within the Vulnérabilité-Milieux-Climat programm.

Coastal sea-ice processes in Alaska and their relevance for sediment dynamics and coastal retreat (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eicken, H.; Kapsch, M.; Johnson, M. A.; Weyapuk, W. U., Jr.

2009-12-01

Sea ice plays an important, complicated role in Arctic coastal sediment dynamics. It helps protect the shoreline from wave action and constrains coastal permafrost thaw; at the same time, sea ice is a highly effective sediment erosion and transport agent. For the coastline of (sub-)Arctic Alaska we have examined key processes that govern the role of sea ice as a geologic agent. Based on passive microwave satellite data for the time period 1979 to 2008 and augmented by field measurements and observations conducted by local sea-ice experts in coastal communities from 2006 onwards, we determined the onset of coastal ice spring break-up and fall freeze-up. These two events define the start and end of the open-water season during which the coast is rendered most vulnerable to thermal and dynamic processes promoting erosion. Satellite data show significant trends toward later fall freeze-up in many locations and moreover provide a picture of the statistical significance and variability of such trends in great spatio-temporal detail. Coastal ice observations suggest that important sea-ice processes (such as formation of ice berms) that precede freeze-up as detected by passive microwave data need to be taken into consideration in evaluating the vulnerability of the coastline and the specific threat of individual storms. Field observations, satellite data and local knowledge also highlight the substantial change in winter sea-ice regimes over the past two decades, with a much more mobile ice cover enhancing winter sediment transport. Ultimately, the shorter sea-ice season and the greater mobility and the lack of stability of winter coastal sea ice work in concert to increase the vulnerability of the coastline to erosion and flooding. At the same time, these changes provide a mechanism for effective redistribution and cross-shelf transport of sediments that prepares the stage for further erosive action in subsequent seasons.

[The social vulnerability index regarding Medellín's disabled population].

PubMed

Cardona-Arango, Doris; Agudelo-Martínez, Alejandra; Restrepo-Molina, Lucas; Segura-Cardona, Angela M

2014-01-01

Constructing a social vulnerability index (SVI) for Medellín's disabled population during 2008 aimed at determining areas which were reducing opportunities for this population to use their tangible and intangible assets, thus impairing their quality of life. This descriptive cross-sectional study drew on a source of secondary information regarding people having some kind of limitation recorded in the Quality of Life Survey, 2008. Physical, human and social variables were grouped when constructing the SVI; the models were run in principal component analysis to determine their degree of vulnerability, defined by the number of negative factors identified (high category=4 or 5, medium=2 or 3 and low=1 or none). Such classification led to identifying non-causal relationships with demographic variables through Mann-Whitney, Chi-square and Kruskal-Wallis tests (5.0 % statistical significance level); multinomial logistic regression was used for calculating adjusted measures for epidemiological measurement, such as opportunity ratios and confidence intervals. A degree of medium vulnerability predominated in disabled people living in Medellín (60.3 %) followed by low vulnerability (28.7 %) and high vulnerability populations (11.0 %). The proposed ISV classified the city's communes according to high, medium or low vulnerability, supported by the use of statistical and spatial location techniques.

Role of Livelihood Capital in Reducing Climatic Vulnerability: Insights of Australian Wheat from 1990-2010.

PubMed

Huai, Jianjun

2016-01-01

In many agricultural countries, development of rural livelihood through increasing capital is a major regional policy to adapt to climate change. However, the role of livelihood capital in reducing climatic vulnerability is uncertain. This study assesses vulnerability and identifies the effects of common capital indicators on it, using Australian wheat as an example. We calculate exposure (a climate index) and sensitivity (a wheat failure index) to measure vulnerability and classify the resilient and sensitive cases, and express adaptive capacity through financial, human, natural, physical, and social capital indicators for 12 regions in the Australian wheat-sheep production zone from 1991-2010. We identify relationships between 12 indicators of five types of capital and vulnerability with t-tests and six logistic models considering the capital indicator itself, its first-order lag and its square as dependent variables to test the hypothesis that a high level of each capital metric results in low vulnerability. Through differing adaptive capacities between resilient and sensitive groups, we found that only four of the 12 (e.g., the access to finance, cash income level, total crop gross revenues, and family share of farm income) relate to vulnerability, which challenges the hypothesis that increasing capital reduces vulnerability. We conclude that further empirical reexaminations are required to test the relationships between capital measures and vulnerability under the sustainable livelihood framework (SLF).

Role of Livelihood Capital in Reducing Climatic Vulnerability: Insights of Australian Wheat from 1990–2010

PubMed Central

Huai, Jianjun

2016-01-01

In many agricultural countries, development of rural livelihood through increasing capital is a major regional policy to adapt to climate change. However, the role of livelihood capital in reducing climatic vulnerability is uncertain. This study assesses vulnerability and identifies the effects of common capital indicators on it, using Australian wheat as an example. We calculate exposure (a climate index) and sensitivity (a wheat failure index) to measure vulnerability and classify the resilient and sensitive cases, and express adaptive capacity through financial, human, natural, physical, and social capital indicators for 12 regions in the Australian wheat–sheep production zone from 1991–2010. We identify relationships between 12 indicators of five types of capital and vulnerability with t-tests and six logistic models considering the capital indicator itself, its first-order lag and its square as dependent variables to test the hypothesis that a high level of each capital metric results in low vulnerability. Through differing adaptive capacities between resilient and sensitive groups, we found that only four of the 12 (e.g., the access to finance, cash income level, total crop gross revenues, and family share of farm income) relate to vulnerability, which challenges the hypothesis that increasing capital reduces vulnerability. We conclude that further empirical reexaminations are required to test the relationships between capital measures and vulnerability under the sustainable livelihood framework (SLF). PMID:27022910

Comparison of empirical and data driven hydrometeorological hazard models on coastal cities of São Paulo, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koga-Vicente, A.; Friedel, M. J.

2010-12-01

Every year thousands of people are affected by floods and landslide hazards caused by rainstorms. The problem is more serious in tropical developing countries because of the susceptibility as a result of the high amount of available energy to form storms, and the high vulnerability due to poor economic and social conditions. Predictive models of hazards are important tools to manage this kind of risk. In this study, a comparison of two different modeling approaches was made for predicting hydrometeorological hazards in 12 cities on the coast of São Paulo, Brazil, from 1994 to 2003. In the first approach, an empirical multiple linear regression (MLR) model was developed and used; the second approach used a type of unsupervised nonlinear artificial neural network called a self-organized map (SOM). By using twenty three independent variables of susceptibility (precipitation, soil type, slope, elevation, and regional atmospheric system scale) and vulnerability (distribution and total population, income and educational characteristics, poverty intensity, human development index), binary hazard responses were obtained. Model performance by cross-validation indicated that the respective MLR and SOM model accuracy was about 67% and 80%. Prediction accuracy can be improved by the addition of information, but the SOM approach is preferred because of sparse data and highly nonlinear relations among the independent variables.

Potential increase in coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise suggested by considering hydrodynamic attenuation effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez, José F.; Saco, Patricia M.; Sandi, Steven; Saintilan, Neil; Riccardi, Gerardo

2017-07-01

The future of coastal wetlands and their ecological value depend on their capacity to adapt to the interacting effects of human impacts and sea-level rise. Even though extensive wetland loss due to submergence is a possible scenario, its magnitude is highly uncertain due to limited understanding of hydrodynamic and bio-geomorphic interactions over time. In particular, the effect of man-made drainage modifications on hydrodynamic attenuation and consequent wetland evolution is poorly understood. Predictions are further complicated by the presence of a number of vegetation types that change over time and also contribute to flow attenuation. Here, we show that flow attenuation affects wetland vegetation by modifying its wetting-drying regime and inundation depth, increasing its vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our simulations for an Australian subtropical wetland predict much faster wetland loss than commonly used models that do not consider flow attenuation.

Development of AHPDST Vulnerability Indexing Model for Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment Using Hydrogeophysical Derived Parameters and GIS Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mogaji, K. A.

2017-04-01

Producing a bias-free vulnerability assessment map model is significantly needed for planning a scheme of groundwater quality protection. This study developed a GIS-based AHPDST vulnerability index model for producing groundwater vulnerability model map in the hard rock terrain, Nigeria by exploiting the potentials of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) data mining models. The acquired borehole and geophysical data in the study area were processed to derive five groundwater vulnerability conditioning factors (GVCFs), namely recharge rate, aquifer transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity, transverse resistance and longitudinal conductance. The produced GVCFs' thematic maps were multi-criterially analyzed by employing the mechanisms of AHP and DST models to determine the normalized weight ( W) parameter for the GVCFs and mass function factors (MFFs) parameter for the GVCFs' thematic maps' class boundaries, respectively. Based on the application of the weighted linear average technique, the determined W and MFFs parameters were synthesized to develop groundwater vulnerability potential index (GVPI)-based AHPDST model algorithm. The developed model was applied to establish four GVPI mass/belief function indices. The estimates based on the applied GVPI belief function indices were processed in GIS environment to create prospective groundwater vulnerability potential index maps. The most representative of the resulting vulnerability maps (the GVPIBel map) was considered for producing the groundwater vulnerability potential zones (GVPZ) map for the area. The produced GVPZ map established 48 and 52% of the areal extent to be covered by the lows/moderate and highs vulnerable zones, respectively. The success and the prediction rates of the produced GVPZ map were determined using the relative operating characteristics technique to give 82.3 and 77.7%, respectively. The analyzed results reveal that the developed GVPI-based AHPDST model algorithm is capable of producing efficient groundwater vulnerability potential zones prediction map and characterizing the predicted zones uncertainty via the DST mechanism processes in the area. The produced GVPZ map in this study can be used by decision makers to formulate appropriate groundwater management strategies and the approach may be well opted in other hard rock regions of the world, especially in economically poor nations.

Potential increase in coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise suggested by considering hydrodynamic attenuation effects

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, José F.; Saco, Patricia M.; Sandi, Steven; Saintilan, Neil; Riccardi, Gerardo

2017-01-01

The future of coastal wetlands and their ecological value depend on their capacity to adapt to the interacting effects of human impacts and sea-level rise. Even though extensive wetland loss due to submergence is a possible scenario, its magnitude is highly uncertain due to limited understanding of hydrodynamic and bio-geomorphic interactions over time. In particular, the effect of man-made drainage modifications on hydrodynamic attenuation and consequent wetland evolution is poorly understood. Predictions are further complicated by the presence of a number of vegetation types that change over time and also contribute to flow attenuation. Here, we show that flow attenuation affects wetland vegetation by modifying its wetting-drying regime and inundation depth, increasing its vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our simulations for an Australian subtropical wetland predict much faster wetland loss than commonly used models that do not consider flow attenuation. PMID:28703130

[Integrated assessment of eco-environmental vulnerability in Pearl River Delta based on RS and GIS].

PubMed

Xu, Qing-Yong; Huang, Mei; Liu, Hong-Sheng; Yan, Hui-Min

2011-11-01

Based on the remote sensing data and with the help of geographic information system, an integrated assessment was conducted on the eco-environmental vulnerability of Pearl River Delta in 2004-2008. Spatial principal component analysis was used to generate the evaluation indicators, and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to determine the weights of the evaluation factors. The reasons causing the vulnerability of the eco- environment in Pearl River Delta were discussed. In the study area, its middle part was the most vulnerable region, occupying 34.0% of the total, eastern part was the moderately vulnerable region, accounting for 25.5%, and western part was the lightly and slightly vulnerable areas, accounting for 28.7 and 11.8%, respectively. Totally, the moderately and lightly vulnerable areas occupied 54.2%, indicating that a majority of the Delta was under moderate and light vulnerability. The natural factors affecting the eco-environmental vulnerability of the Delta were altitude, heavy rain days, water and soil erosion rate, flooded infield rate, normalized difference vegetation index (ND VI) and landscape diversity index, whereas the human factors were population density, waste discharge per unit area, exhaust emission per unit area, land use change, chemical fertilization intensity, pesticide application intensity, amount of motor vehicles possessed by ten thousands people, and index of environmental protection investment. The main characteristics of the extremely and heavily vulnerable regions were low altitude, high frequency of flood disaster, large flooded infield, serious vegetation degradation, high pollution level and low environment protection investment index.

Vulnerability of Coastal Wetlands in the Southeastern United States: Climate Change Research Results, 1992-97.

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-01-01

resource management and use of these public lands . Southeastern coastal wetlands have also been high priority areas for state fish and wildlife agencies...of landscape models and new satellite tech- nology to provide important tools for research and policy purposes that allow for effective land and...transgression. Hence, short- term rates of marsh transgression may be meaningless and may not be useful tools to predict wetland habitat change, at least

Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand.

PubMed

Steckley, Marylynn; Doberstein, Brent

2011-07-01

This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

A contribution to the selection of tsunami human vulnerability indicators: conclusions from tsunami impacts in Sri Lanka and Thailand (2004), Samoa (2009), Chile (2010) and Japan (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Riancho, P.; Aliaga, B.; Hettiarachchi, S.; González, M.; Medina, R.

2014-12-01

After several tsunami events with disastrous consequences around the world, coastal countries have realized the need to be prepared to minimize human mortality and damage to coastal infrastructures, livelihoods and resources. The international scientific community is striving to develop and validate methodologies for tsunami hazard and vulnerability and risk assessments. The vulnerability of coastal communities is usually assessed through the definition of sets of indicators based on previous literature and/or post-tsunami reports, as well as on the available data for the study site. The aim of this work is to validate in light of past tsunami events the indicators currently proposed by the scientific community to measure human vulnerability, to improve their definition and selection as well as to analyse their validity for different country development profiles. The events analyzed are the 2011 Great Tohoku tsunami, the 2010 Chilean tsunami, the 2009 Samoan tsunami and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The results obtained highlight the need for considering both permanent and temporal human exposure, the former requiring some hazard numerical modelling while the latter is related to site-specific livelihoods, cultural traditions and gender roles. The most vulnerable age groups are the elderly adults and the children, the former having much higher mortality rates. Female mortality is not always higher than male and not always related to dependency issues. Higher numbers of disabled people do not always translate into higher numbers of victims. Besides, it is clear that mortality is not only related to the characteristics of the population but also the buildings. A high correlation has been found between the affected buildings and the number of victims, being very high for completely damaged buildings. Distance to the sea, building materials and expected water depths are highly determining factors regarding the type of damage in buildings.

Indications of a positive feedback between coastal development and beach nourishment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armstrong, Scott B.; Lazarus, Eli D.; Limber, Patrick W.; Goldstein, Evan B.; Thorpe, Curtis; Ballinger, Rhoda C.

2016-12-01

Beach nourishment, a method for mitigating coastal storm damage or chronic erosion by deliberately replacing sand on an eroded beach, has been the leading form of coastal protection in the United States for four decades. However, investment in hazard protection can have the unintended consequence of encouraging development in places especially vulnerable to damage. In a comprehensive, parcel-scale analysis of all shorefront single-family homes in the state of Florida, we find that houses in nourishing zones are significantly larger and more numerous than in non-nourishing zones. The predominance of larger homes in nourishing zones suggests a positive feedback between nourishment and development that is compounding coastal risk in zones already characterized by high vulnerability.

Prediction of groundwater inrush into coal mines from aquifers underlying the coal seams in China: application of vulnerability index method to Zhangcun Coal Mine, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qiang; Zhou, Wanfang; Wang, Jinhua; Xie, Shuhan

2009-05-01

Groundwater inrush is a geohazard that can significantly impact safe operations of the coal mines in China. Its occurrence is controlled by many factors and processes are often not amenable to mathematical expressions. To evaluate the water inrush risk, Professor Wu and his colleagues have proposed the vulnerability index approach by coupling the artificial neural network (ANN) and geographic information system (GIS). The detailed procedures of using this innovative approach are shown in a case study. Firstly, the powerful spatial data analysis functions of GIS was used to establish the thematic layer of each of the main factors that control the water inrush, and then to choose the training sample on the thematic layer with the ANN-BP Arithmetic. Secondly, the ANN evaluation model of the water inrush was established to determine the threshold value for each risk level with a histogram of the water inrush vulnerability index. As a result, the mine area was divided into four regions with different vulnerability levels and they served as the general guidelines for the mine operations.

Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibin, Lin; Lili, Xie; Maosheng, Gong; Ming, Li

2010-06-01

This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacitydemand-diagram method. The spectral displacement ( S d ) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between S d and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.

Groundwater vulnerability mapping of Qatar aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baalousha, Husam Musa

2016-12-01

Qatar is one of the most arid countries in the world with limited water resources. With little rainfall and no surface water, groundwater is the only natural source of fresh water in the country. Whilst the country relies mainly on desalination of seawater to secure water supply, groundwater has extensively been used for irrigation over the last three decades, which caused adverse environmental impact. Vulnerability assessment is a widely used tool for groundwater protection and land-use management. Aquifers in Qatar are carbonate with lots of fractures, depressions and cavities. Karst aquifers are generally more vulnerable to contamination than other aquifers as any anthropogenic-sourced contaminant, especially above a highly fractured zone, can infiltrate quickly into the aquifer and spread over a wide area. The vulnerability assessment method presented in this study is based on two approaches: DRASTIC and EPIK, within the framework of Geographical Information System (GIS). Results of this study show that DRASTIC vulnerability method suits Qatar hydrogeological settings more than EPIK. The produced vulnerability map using DRASTIC shows coastal and karst areas have the highest vulnerability class. The southern part of the country is located in the low vulnerability class due to occurrence of shale formation within aquifer media, which averts downward movement of contaminants.

Performance evaluation of Normalized Difference Chlorophyll Index in northern Gulf of Mexico estuaries using the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean

EPA Science Inventory

The Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) was used to derive chlorophyll-a (chl-a) based on the Normalized Difference Chlorophyll Index (NDCI) in two Gulf of Mexico coastal estuaries. Chl-a data were acquired from discrete in-situ water sample analysis and above-water...

A contribution to the selection of tsunami human vulnerability indicators: conclusions from tsunami impacts in Sri Lanka and Thailand (2004), Samoa (2009), Chile (2010) and Japan (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Riancho, P.; Aliaga, B.; Hettiarachchi, S.; González, M.; Medina, R.

2015-07-01

After several tsunami events with disastrous consequences around the world, coastal countries have realized the need to be prepared to minimize human mortality and damage to coastal infrastructures, livelihoods and resources. The international scientific community is striving to develop and validate methodologies for tsunami hazard and vulnerability and risk assessments. The vulnerability of coastal communities is usually assessed through the definition of sets of indicators based on previous literature and/or post-tsunami reports, as well as on the available data for the study site. The aim of this work is to validate, in light of past tsunami events, the indicators currently proposed by the scientific community to measure human vulnerability, to improve their definition and selection as well as to analyse their validity for different country development profiles. The events analysed are the 2011 Great Tohoku tsunami, the 2010 Chilean tsunami, the 2009 Samoan tsunami and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The results obtained highlight the need for considering both permanent and temporal human exposure, the former requiring some hazard numerical modelling, while the latter is related to site-specific livelihoods, cultural traditions and gender roles. The most vulnerable age groups are the elderly and children, the former having much higher mortality rates. Female mortality is not always higher than male mortality and not always related to dependency issues. Higher numbers of disabled people do not always translate into higher numbers of victims. Besides, it is clear that mortality is not only related to the characteristics of the population but also of the buildings. A high correlation has been found between the affected buildings and the number of victims, being very high for completely damaged buildings. Distance to the sea, building materials and expected water depths are important determining factors regarding the type of damage to buildings.

The need for sustained and integrated high-resolution mapping of dynamic coastal environments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stockdon, Hilary F.; Lillycrop, Jeff W.; Howd, Peter A.; Wozencraft, Jennifer M.

2007-01-01

The evolution of the United States' coastal zone response to both human activities and natural processes is dynamic. Coastal resource and population protection requires understanding, in detail, the processes needed for change as well as the physical setting. Sustained coastal area mapping allows change to be documented and baseline conditions to be established, as well as future behavior to be predicted in conjunction with physical process models. Hyperspectral imagers and airborne lidars, as well as other recent mapping technology advances, allow rapid national scale land use information and high-resolution elevation data collection. Coastal hazard risk evaluation has critical dependence on these rich data sets. A fundamental storm surge model parameter in predicting flooding location, for example, is coastal elevation data, and a foundation in identifying the most vulnerable populations and resources is land use maps. A wealth of information for physical change process study, coastal resource and community management and protection, and coastal area hazard vulnerability determination, is available in a comprehensive national coastal mapping plan designed to take advantage of recent mapping technology progress and data distribution, management, and collection.

Intensively exploited Mediterranean aquifers: resilience to seawater intrusion and proximity to critical thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazi, K.; Koussis, A. D.; Destouni, G.

2014-05-01

We investigate seawater intrusion in three prominent Mediterranean aquifers that are subject to intensive exploitation and modified hydrologic regimes by human activities: the Nile Delta, Israel Coastal and Cyprus Akrotiri aquifers. Using a generalized analytical sharp interface model, we review the salinization history and current status of these aquifers, and quantify their resilience/vulnerability to current and future seawater intrusion forcings. We identify two different critical limits of seawater intrusion under groundwater exploitation and/or climatic stress: a limit of well intrusion, at which intruded seawater reaches key locations of groundwater pumping, and a tipping point of complete seawater intrusion up to the prevailing groundwater divide of a coastal aquifer. Either limit can be reached, and ultimately crossed, under intensive aquifer exploitation and/or climate-driven change. We show that seawater intrusion vulnerability for different aquifer cases can be directly compared in terms of normalized intrusion performance curves. The site-specific assessments show that (a) the intruding seawater currently seriously threatens the Nile Delta aquifer, (b) in the Israel Coastal aquifer the sharp interface toe approaches the well location and (c) the Cyprus Akrotiri aquifer is currently somewhat less threatened by increased seawater intrusion.

Developing a vulnerability index for assessing riverbank erosion in large catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regan, Siôn; Smith, Hugh

2017-04-01

Riverbank erosion is a natural process involved in floodplain development, but can have negative impacts such as excessive sediment supply to the river channel, undermining infrastructure and eroding valuable agricultural land. Catchment managers often work with limited budgets and for remediation efforts to be the most effective they should be targeted in areas that are at the highest risk of suffering excessive riverbank erosion. Recent developments in high resolution spatial data capture, such as aerial LiDAR have allowed for much more detailed representation of the riparian area, including the channel location and riparian vegetation. This presentation will propose a new dimensionless index that has been developed to identify and rank sections of river channel according to erosion vulnerability. The index combines information on channel position, slope and curvature extracted from LiDAR-derived DEMs with riparian vegetation cover. It also accounts for the extent of lateral confinement limiting erosion and bank silt-clay composition influencing erodibility. The index is designed to be applied to alluvial channels across large catchments (>500 km2) to support the identification riverbank erosion 'hotspots' at the reach scale (approximating 50-200 m intervals). The performance of the vulnerability index in discriminating actively eroding and non-eroding channel reaches was assessed in the River Lugg catchment, UK. Historic mapping and aerial photographs were used to determine the channel position, slope and riparian vegetation coverage in the 1960s. The index was then calculated for the historic river channel position and compared with ranked metrics of lateral channel change that occurred between the 1960s and present. This approach provides a basis for evaluating the utility of a simple vulnerability index that could be used for prioritising the location of future investments to reduce excessive riverbank erosion in large catchments.

Intensively exploited Mediterranean aquifers: resilience and proximity to critical points of seawater intrusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazi, K.; Koussis, A. D.; Destouni, G.

2013-11-01

We investigate here seawater intrusion in three prominent Mediterranean aquifers that are subject to intensive exploitation and modified hydrologic regimes by human activities: the Nile Delta Aquifer, the Israel Coastal Aquifer and the Cyprus Akrotiri Aquifer. Using a generalized analytical sharp-interface model, we review the salinization history and current status of these aquifers, and quantify their resilience/vulnerability to current and future sea intrusion forcings. We identify two different critical limits of sea intrusion under groundwater exploitation and/or climatic stress: a limit of well intrusion, at which intruded seawater reaches key locations of groundwater pumping, and a tipping point of complete sea intrusion upto the prevailing groundwater divide of a coastal aquifer. Either limit can be reached, and ultimately crossed, under intensive aquifer exploitation and/or climate-driven change. We show that sea intrusion vulnerability for different aquifer cases can be directly compared in terms of normalized intrusion performance curves. The site-specific assessments show that the advance of seawater currently seriously threatens the Nile Delta Aquifer and the Israel Coastal Aquifer. The Cyprus Akrotiri Aquifer is currently somewhat less threatened by increased seawater intrusion.

Assessing tsunami vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papathoma, M.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Zong, Y.; Smith, D.

Recent tsunami have caused massive loss of life, destruction of coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activity. To date, tsunami hazard studies have concentrated on determining the frequency and magnitude of events and in the production of simplistic flood maps. In general, such maps appear to have assumed a uniform vulnerability of population, infrastructure and business. In reality however, a complex set of factors interact to produce a pattern of vulnerability that varies spatially and temporally. A new vulnerability assessment approach is described, that incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters relating to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. The new methodology is applied on a coastal segment in Greece and, in particular, in Crete, westof the city of Herakleio. The results are presented within a Geographic Information System (GIS). The application of GIS ensures the approach is novel for tsunami studies, since it permits interrogation of the primary database by several different end-users. For example, the GIS may be used: (1) to determine immediate post-tsunami disaster response needs by the emergency services; (2) to preplan tsunami mitigation measures by disaster planners; (3) as a tool for local planning by the municipal authorities or; (4) as a basis for catastrophe modelling by insurance companies. We show that population density varies markedly with the time of the year and that 30% of buildings within the inundation zone are only single story thus increasing the vulnerability of their occupants. Within the high inundation depth zone, 11% of buildings are identified as in need of reinforcement and this figure rises to 50% within the medium inundation depth zone. 10% of businesses are located within the high inundation depth zone and these may need to consider their level of insurance cover to protect against primary building damage, contents loss and business interruption losses.

Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index

PubMed Central

Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; dos Santos, Rhavena Barbosa; Margonari, Carina

2018-01-01

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied—social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change. PMID:29444086

Vulnerability Assessment of Natural Disasters for Small and Mid-Sized Streams due to Climate Change and Stream Improvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, D.; Jun, H. D.; Kim, S.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment plays an important role in drawing up climate change adaptation plans. Although there are some studies on broad vulnerability assessment in Korea, there have been very few studies to develop and apply locally focused and specific sector-oriented climate change vulnerability indicators. Especially, there has seldom been any study to investigate the effect of an adaptation project on assessing the vulnerability status to climate change for fundamental local governments. In order to relieve adverse effects of climate change, Korean government has performed the project of the Major Four Rivers (Han, Geum, Nakdong and Yeongsan river) Restoration since 2008. It is expected that water level in main stream of 4 rivers will be dropped through this project, but flood effect will be mainly occurred in small and mid-sized streams which flows in main stream. Hence, we examined how much the project of the major four rivers restoration relieves natural disasters. Conceptual framework of vulnerability-resilience index to climate change for the Korean fundamental local governments is defined as a function of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Then, statistical data on scores of proxy variables assumed to comprise climate change vulnerability for local governments are collected. Proxy variables and estimated temporary weights of them are selected by surveying a panel of experts using Delphi method, and final weights are determined by modified Entropy method. Developed vulnerability-resilience index was applied to Korean fundamental local governments and it is calculated under each scenario as follows. (1) Before the major four rivers restoration, (2) 100 years after represented climate change condition without the major four rivers restoration, (3) After the major four rivers restoration without representing climate change (this means present climate condition) and (4) After the major four rivers restoration and 100 years after represented climate change condition. In the results of calculated vulnerability-resilience index of each scenario, it can be noticed that vulnerability of watersheds which are located near main stream of four rivers is alleviated, but because of climate change, vulnerability is getting high in most watersheds. Also, considering future climate change and river restoration, vulnerability of several watersheds is relieved by river restoration. Acknowledges This work was funded by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) in Korea Program under Grant NEMA-10-NH-04.

Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index.

PubMed

Menezes, Júlia Alves; Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; Santos, Rhavena Barbosa Dos; Margonari, Carina

2018-01-01

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied-social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change.

Impact of heterogeneity on groundwater salinization due to coastal pumping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, X.; Michael, H. A.

2017-12-01

Groundwater abstraction causes and accelerates seawater intrusion in many coastal areas. In heterogeneous aquifers, preferential flow paths can lead to fast intrusion, while low permeability layers can serve as barriers. The extent to which different types of heterogeneous aquifers are vulnerable to pumping-induced seawater intrusion has not been well studied. Here we show that the connectedness of pumping location and local boundary condition drive salinization patterns. Salinization patterns in homogeneous aquifers were relatively simple and only related to the hydraulic properties and pumping rate. The salinization rates and patterns in heterogeneous aquifers were much more complicated and related to pumping location, rate and depth, preferential flow path locations, and local boundary conditions. An intrusion classification approach was developed with three types in homogeneous aquifers and four types in heterogeneous aquifers. After classification the main factors of salinized areas, intrusion rates and salinization time could be identified. The ranges of these salinization assessment criteria suggested different aspect of groundwater vulnerability in each class. We anticipate the classification approach to be a starting point for more comprehensive groundwater abstraction vulnerability assessment (including consideration of pumping rates, locations and depths, connectivity, preferential flow paths, etc.), which is critical for coastal water resources management.

Coastal Risk Assessment Framework tool for the identification of hotspots along the Emilia-Romagna coastline (northern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armaroli, Clara; Duo, Enrico; Ciavola, Paolo

2017-04-01

The Emilia-Romagna coastline is located in northern Italy, facing the Adriatic sea. The area is especially exposed to the flooding hazard because of its low lying nature, high urbanisation and the large exploitation of beach resources for tourism. The identification of hotspots where marine flooding can cause significant damages is, therefore, a key issue. The methodology implemented to identify hotspots is based on the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework tool that was developed in the RISC-KIT project (www.risckit.eu). The tool combines the hazard component with different exposure indicators and is applied along predefined coastal sectors of almost 1 Km alongshore length. The coastline was divided into 106 sectors in which each component was analysed. The hazard part was evaluated through the computation of maximum water levels, obtained as the sum of wave set-up, storm surge and tide, calculated along representative beach profiles, one per sector, and for two return periods (10 and 100 years). The data for the computation of the maximum water level were extracted from the literature. The landward extension of flood-prone areas in each sector was the extension of the flood maps produced by the regional authorities for the EU Flood Directive and for the same return periods. The exposure indicators were evaluated taking into account the location and type of different assets in each sector and in flood-prone areas. Specifically, the assets that were taken into account are: the transport network, the utilities (water, gas and electricity) networks, the land use typologies, the social vulnerability status of the population and the business sector. Each component was then ranked from 1 to 5, considering a scale based on their computed value (hazard), importance and location (exposure indicators). A final coastal index (CI) was computed as the root mean square of the geometrical mean of the exposure indicators multiplied by the hazard indicator. Land use typologies were valued taking into account a classification produced by the regional authorities for the Flood Directive. The social vulnerability status of the population was derived from data produced by the National Statistic Institute. The regional managers provided the location of transport and utilities networks. The business indicator was built considering the tourist arrivals in each coastal municipality compared to the total number of arrivals. The results showed that the coast is very exposed to flooding and that the 100 year return period event leads to the identification of a large number of hotspots (65 over 106) defined as sectors with CI > 2.5. The main drivers for the hotspot identification were the hazard indicator and the land use typologies, because important transport/utilities network are not located in flood-prone areas. The most critical sectors are situated in the central-southern part of the coastline, where the most attractive tourist facilities are located and where the coastal corridor is occupied by a continuous urbanisation.

A study on agricultural drought vulnerability at disaggregated level in a highly irrigated and intensely cropped state of India.

PubMed

Murthy, C S; Yadav, Manoj; Mohammed Ahamed, J; Laxman, B; Prawasi, R; Sesha Sai, M V R; Hooda, R S

2015-03-01

Drought is an important global hazard, challenging the sustainable agriculture and food security of nations. Measuring agricultural drought vulnerability is a prerequisite for targeting interventions to improve and sustain the agricultural performance of both irrigated and rain-fed agriculture. In this study, crop-generic agricultural drought vulnerability status is empirically measured through a composite index approach. The study area is Haryana state, India, a prime agriculture state of the country, characterised with low rainfall, high irrigation support and stable cropping pattern. By analysing the multiyear rainfall and crop condition data of kharif crop season (June-October) derived from satellite data and soil water holding capacity and groundwater quality, nine contributing indicators were generated for 120 blocks (sub-district administrative units). Composite indices for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity components were generated after assigning variance-based weightages to the respective input indicators. Agricultural Drought Vulnerability Index (ADVI) was developed through a linear combination of the three component indices. ADVI-based vulnerability categorisation revealed that 51 blocks are with vulnerable to very highly vulnerable status. These blocks are located in the southern and western parts of the state, where groundwater quality is saline and water holding capacity of soils is less. The ADVI map has effectively captured the spatial pattern of agricultural drought vulnerability in the state. Districts with large number of vulnerable blocks showed considerably larger variability of de-trended crop yields. Correlation analysis reveals that crop condition variability, groundwater quality and soil factors are closely associated with ADVI. The vulnerability index is useful to prioritise the blocks for implementation of long-term drought management plans. There is scope for improving the methodology by adding/fine-tuning the indicators and by optimising the weights.

Vulnerability to the transmission of human visceral leishmaniasis in a Brazilian urban area

PubMed Central

de Toledo, Celina Roma Sánchez; de Almeida, Andréa Sobral; Chaves, Sergio Augusto de Miranda; Sabroza, Paulo Chagastelles; Toledo, Luciano Medeiros; Caldas, Jefferson Pereira

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the determinants for the occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis linked to the conditions of vulnerability. METHODS This is an ecological study, whose spatial analysis unit was the Territorial Analysis Unit in Araguaína, State of Tocantins, Brazil, from 2007 to 2012. We have carried out an analysis of the sociodemographic and urban infrastructure situation of the municipality. Normalized primary indicators were calculated and used to construct the indicators of vulnerability of the social structure, household structure, and urban infrastructure. From them, we have composed a vulnerability index. Kernel density estimation was used to evaluate the density of cases of human visceral leishmaniasis, based on the coordinates of the cases. Bivariate global Moran’s I was used to verify the existence of spatial autocorrelation between the incidence of human visceral leishmaniasis and the indicators and index of vulnerability. Bivariate local Moran’s I was used to identify spatial clusters. RESULTS We have observed a pattern of centrifugal spread of human visceral leishmaniasis in the municipality, where outbreaks of the disease have progressively reached central and peri-urban areas. There has been no correlation between higher incidences of human visceral leishmaniasis and worse living conditions. Statistically significant clusters have been observed between the incidences of human visceral leishmaniasis in both periods analyzed (2007 to 2009 and 2010 to 2012) and the indicators and index of vulnerability. CONCLUSIONS The environment in circumscribed areas helps as protection factor or increases the local vulnerability to the occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis. The use of methodology that analyzes the conditions of life of the population and the spatial distribution of human visceral leishmaniasis is essential to identify the most vulnerable areas to the spread/maintenance of the disease. PMID:28513764

Optimization of DRASTIC method by artificial neural network, nitrate vulnerability index, and composite DRASTIC models to assess groundwater vulnerability for unconfined aquifer of Shiraz Plain, Iran.

PubMed

Baghapour, Mohammad Ali; Fadaei Nobandegani, Amir; Talebbeydokhti, Nasser; Bagherzadeh, Somayeh; Nadiri, Ata Allah; Gharekhani, Maryam; Chitsazan, Nima

2016-01-01

Extensive human activities and unplanned land uses have put groundwater resources of Shiraz plain at a high risk of nitrate pollution, causing several environmental and human health issues. To address these issues, water resources managers utilize groundwater vulnerability assessment and determination of protection. This study aimed to prepare the vulnerability maps of Shiraz aquifer by using Composite DRASTIC index, Nitrate Vulnerability index, and artificial neural network and also to compare their efficiency. The parameters of the indexes that were employed in this study are: depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of the vadose zone, hydraulic conductivity, and land use. These parameters were rated, weighted, and integrated using GIS, and then, used to develop the risk maps of Shiraz aquifer. The results indicated that the southeastern part of the aquifer was at the highest potential risk. Given the distribution of groundwater nitrate concentrations from the wells in the underlying aquifer, the artificial neural network model offered greater accuracy compared to the other two indexes. The study concluded that the artificial neural network model is an effective model to improve the DRASTIC index and provides a confident estimate of the pollution risk. As intensive agricultural activities are the dominant land use and water table is shallow in the vulnerable zones, optimized irrigation techniques and a lower rate of fertilizers are suggested. The findings of our study could be used as a scientific basis in future for sustainable groundwater management in Shiraz plain.

Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability Assessment in Industrial Complexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H. J.; Lee, D. K.

2016-12-01

Climate change has recently caused frequent natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, and heat waves. Such disasters have also increased industrial damages. We must establish climate change adaptation policies to reduce the industrial damages. It is important to make accurate vulnerability assessment to establish climate change adaptation policies. Thus, this study aims at establishing a new index to assess vulnerability level in industrial complexes. Most vulnerability indices have been developed with subjective approaches, such as the Delphi survey and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). The subjective approaches rely on the knowledge of a few experts, which provokes the lack of the reliability of the indices. To alleviate the problem, we have designed a vulnerability index incorporating objective approaches. We have investigated 42 industrial complex sites in Republic of Korea (ROK). To calculate weights of variables, we used entropy method as an objective method integrating the Delphi survey as a subjective method. Finally, we found our method integrating both subjective method and objective method could generate result. The integration of the entropy method enables us to assess the vulnerability objectively. Our method will be useful to establish climate change adaptation policies by reducing the uncertainties of the methods based on the subjective approaches.

Migratory connectivity magnifies the consequences of habitat loss from sea-level rise for shorebird populations.

PubMed

Iwamura, Takuya; Possingham, Hugh P; Chadès, Iadine; Minton, Clive; Murray, Nicholas J; Rogers, Danny I; Treml, Eric A; Fuller, Richard A

2013-06-22

Sea-level rise (SLR) will greatly alter littoral ecosystems, causing habitat change and loss for coastal species. Habitat loss is widely used as a measurement of the risk of extinction, but because many coastal species are migratory, the impact of habitat loss will depend not only on its extent, but also on where it occurs. Here, we develop a novel graph-theoretic approach to measure the vulnerability of a migratory network to the impact of habitat loss from SLR based on population flow through the network. We show that reductions in population flow far exceed the proportion of habitat lost for 10 long-distance migrant shorebirds using the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. We estimate that SLR will inundate 23-40% of intertidal habitat area along their migration routes, but cause a reduction in population flow of up to 72 per cent across the taxa. This magnifying effect was particularly strong for taxa whose migration routes contain bottlenecks-sites through which a large fraction of the population travels. We develop the bottleneck index, a new network metric that positively correlates with the predicted impacts of habitat loss on overall population flow. Our results indicate that migratory species are at greater risk than previously realized.

Examining social, physical, and environmental dimensions of tornado vulnerability in Texas.

PubMed

Siebeneck, Laura

2016-01-01

To develop a vulnerability model that captures the social, physical, and environmental dimensions of tornado vulnerability of Texas counties. Guided by previous research and methodologies proposed in the hazards and emergency management literature, a principle components analysis is used to create a tornado vulnerability index. Data were gathered from open source information available through the US Census Bureau, American Community Surveys, and the Texas Natural Resources Information System. Texas counties. The results of the model yielded three indices that highlight geographic variability of social vulnerability, built environment vulnerability, and tornado hazard throughout Texas. Further analyses suggest that counties with the highest tornado vulnerability include those with high population densities and high tornado risk. This article demonstrates one method for assessing statewide tornado vulnerability and presents how the results of this type of analysis can be applied by emergency managers towards the reduction of tornado vulnerability in their communities.

Integration of social dimension in an index oriented methodology for consequence analysis of natural hazards: application to the Upper Guil Catchment (Southern French Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlier, Benoit; Puissant, Anne; Dujarric, Constance

2017-04-01

Vulnerability assessment together with hazard exposure is generally accepted as the two main steps of risk analysis. If quantitative methods to estimate hazard exposure are now well-defined, it is not the case regarding vulnerability assessment. Vulnerability is a complex concept involving a variety of disciplines from physical and socio-economic sciences (i.e. engineering, economics, social and health sciences etc.). Currently, two opposite trends exist: the 'physical' approach in which vulnerability is analysed as potential impacts (i.e. structural and functional) on the elements at risk (building, network, land cover); and the 'social' approach in which vulnerability is a combination of socio-economic variables determining people's ability to anticipate before a catastrophic event, to react during it, and to recover after it. For a complete analysis of vulnerability it is essential to combine these two approaches but in reality few works exists. The objective of this research is to improve the Potential Damage Index (PDI), detailed in Puissant el al. (2013), originally developed to assess physical injury, structural and functional consequences of landslide hazard, by including socio-economic characteristics of population information. Data from the French Census data (INSEE, 2012) and a survey on risk perception (100 questionnaires obtained between 2014 and 2015/16) were used to propose an overall index taking into account the three main phases of risk management: preparedness, crisis management and recovery. This new index called Global Potential Damage Index (GPDI) is applied on the Upper Guil Catchment to assess potential torrential floods hazard in the context of the French funded project SAMCO (Society Adaptation for coping with Mountain risks in a global change Context). Results of the PDI are compared with the GPDI and show significant differences. GPDI scores mapping are lower than PDI scores indicating that resilient population may qualify results obtained for physical consequences. In GPDI the social and institutional component is expressed by a unique value applied for the overall stakes of a same community. Consequently, socio-economics differences between Upper Guil catchments communities are highlighted and make results easily understandable for local manager.

Hurricane Isaac: observations and analysis of coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guy, Kristy K.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Doran, Kara S.; Morgan, Karen L.M.

2013-01-01

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical process of interest is sediment transport that is driven by waves, currents, and storm surge associated with storms. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to impact parts of the coast not normally exposed to these processes. Coastal geomorphology reflects the coastal changes associated with extreme-storm processes. Relevant geomorphic variables that are observable before and after storms include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to quantify coastal change and are used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms (Stockdon and others, 2007). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH) project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/national-assessment/) provides hazard information to those concerned about the Nation’s coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. Extreme-storm research is a component of the NACCH project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/) that includes development of predictive understanding, vulnerability assessments using models, and updated observations in response to specific storm events. In particular, observations were made to determine morphological changes associated with Hurricane Isaac, which made landfall in the United States first at Southwest Pass, at the mouth of the Mississippi River, at 0000 August 29, 2012 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) and again, 8 hours later, west of Port Fourchon, Louisiana (Berg, 2013). Methods of observation included oblique aerial photography, airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) topographic surveys, and ground-based topographic surveys. This report documents data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline, beaches, dunes, and infrastructure in the region that was heavily impacted by Hurricane Isaac. The report is divided into the following sections: Section 1: Introduction Section 2: Storm Overview, presents a synopsis of the storm, including meteorological evolution, wind speed impact area, wind-wave generation, and storm-surge extent and magnitudes. Section 3: Coastal-Change Observations, describes data-collection missions, including acquisition of oblique aerial photography and airborne lidar topographic surveys, in response to Hurricane Isaac. Section 4: Coastal-Change Analysis, describes data-analysis methods and observations of coastal change.

The Relationships Among Sleep Quality and Chronotype, Emotional Disturbance, and Insomnia Vulnerability in Shift Nurses.

PubMed

Lee, Ching-Yi; Chen, Hsi-Chung; Meg Tseng, Mei-Chih; Lee, Hsin-Chien; Huang, Lian-Hua

2015-09-01

Shift work is a prominent feature of most nursing jobs. Although chronotype, emotional disturbance, and insomnia vulnerability are important factors for patients with insomnia in general, their effects on shift nurses are unknown. This study explores the relationships between the sleep quality of shift nurses and the variables of chronotype, emotional disturbance, and insomnia vulnerability. A survey was conducted with 398 shift nurses in a medical center. Chronotype, emotional disturbance, insomnia vulnerability, and sleep quality were evaluated using the Smith Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire, the Brief Symptom Rating Scale, the Ford Insomnia Response to Stress Test, and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, respectively. On the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, 70.1% of the participants scored higher than 5. Multiple regression analysis revealed that, together with night shift work (b [SE] = 1.05 [0.35], p = .003), higher levels of emotional disturbance (b [SE] = 0.30 [0.05], p < .001) and higher insomnia vulnerability (b [SE] = 0.18 [0.03], p < .001) were predictors of poor sleep quality and that chronotype was not a predictor of poor sleep quality. The multiple mediator model indicated that emotional disturbance significantly mediated an indirect effect of evening chronotype preference on poor subjective sleep quality (one subscale of the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index). In addition to shift patterns, emotional disturbance and high insomnia vulnerability are factors that may be used to identify shift nurses who face a higher risk of sleep disturbance. Because evening chronotype may indirectly influence subjective sleep quality through the pathway of emotional disturbance, further research into the mechanism that underlies this pathway is warranted.

The assessment of vulnerability to natural disasters in China by using the DEA method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei Yiming; Fan Ying; Lu Cong

2004-05-01

China has been greatly affected by natural disasters, so that it is of great importance to analyze the impact of natural disasters on national economy. Usually, the frequency of disasters or absolute loss inflicted by disasters is the first priority to be considered, while the capability of regions to overcome disasters is ignored. The concept of vulnerability is used to measure the capability to overcome disasters in different regions with distinctive economies. Traditional methods for vulnerability analysis calculate sub-indices based on disaster frequency, loss, the economic impact and the population of each region, and then add the sub-indices to getmore » a composite index for regional vulnerability. But those methods are sensitive to the weights selected for sub-indices when multi-indexes are added up to get an index of total vulnerability. The analytic results are less convincing because of the subjectivity of different weighting methods. A data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based model for analysis of regional vulnerability to natural disasters is presented here to improve upon the traditional method. This paper systematically describes the DEA method to evaluate the relative severity of disasters in each region. A model for regional vulnerability analysis is developed, based on the annual governmental statistics from 1989 to 2000. The regional vulnerabilities in China's mainland are illustrated as a case study, and a new method for the classification of regional vulnerability to natural disasters in China is proposed.« less

Forecasting hurricane impact on coastal topography: Hurricane Ike

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Sallenger,, Asbury H.; Turco, Michael J.; East, Jeffery W.; Taylor, Arthur A.; Shaffer, Wilson A.

2010-01-01

Extreme storms can have a profound impact on coastal topography and thus on ecosystems and human-built structures within coastal regions. For instance, landfalls of several recent major hurricanes have caused significant changes to the U.S. coastline, particularly along the Gulf of Mexico. Some of these hurricanes (e.g., Ivan in 2004, Katrina and Rita in 2005, and Gustav and Ike in 2008) led to shoreline position changes of about 100 meters. Sand dunes, which protect the coast from waves and surge, eroded, losing several meters of elevation in the course of a single storm. Observations during these events raise the question of how storm-related changes affect the future vulnerability of a coast.

The Construction and Validation of the Heat Vulnerability Index, a Review

PubMed Central

Bao, Junzhe; Li, Xudong; Yu, Chuanhua

2015-01-01

The occurrence of extreme heat and its adverse effects will be exacerbated with the trend of global warming. An increasing number of researchers have been working on aggregating multiple heat-related indicators to create composite indices for heat vulnerability assessments and have visualized the vulnerability through geographic information systems to provide references for reducing the adverse effects of extreme heat more effectively. This review includes 15 studies concerning heat vulnerability assessment. We have studied the indicators utilized and the methods adopted in these studies for the construction of the heat vulnerability index (HVI) and then further reviewed some of the studies that validated the HVI. We concluded that the HVI is useful for targeting the intervention of heat risk, and that heat-related health outcomes could be used to validate and optimize the HVI. In the future, more studies should be conducted to provide references for the selection of heat-related indicators and the determination of weight values of these indicators in the development of the HVI. Studies concerning the application of the HVI are also needed. PMID:26132476

Challenges of Tsunami Disaster and Extreme climate Events Along Coastal Region in Asia-Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhari, S.

2017-12-01

South Asia is more vulnerable to Geo disasters and impacts of climate changes in recent years. On 26 December 2004 massive waves triggered by an earthquake surged into coastal communities in Asia and East Africa with devastating force. Hitting Indonesia, Sri Lanka , Thailand and India hardest, the deadly waves swept more than 200 000 people to their deaths. Also in an another extreme climate change phenomenon during 2005 - 2006,causing heavy rains and flooding situation in the South Asia - Europe and Pacific region ,more than 100 million population in these regions are witnessing the social- economical and ecological risks and impacts due to climate changes and Geohazards. For mitigating geo-disasters, marine hazards and rehabilitation during post tsunami period, scientific knowledge is needed, requiring experienced research communities who can train the local population during tsunami rehabilitation. Several civil society institutions jointly started the initiatives on the problem identifications in management of risks in geo-disasters, tsunami rehabilitation ,Vulnerability and risk assessments for Geohazards etc., to investigate problems related to social-economic and ecological risks and management issues resulting from the December tsunami and Geo- disaster, to aid mitigation planning in affected areas and to educate scientists and local populations to form a basis for sustainable and economic solutions. The poster aims to assess the potential risk and hazard , technical issues, problems and damage arising from Tsunami in the Asia-pacific region in coastal geology, coastal ecosystems and coastal environmental systems . This poster deals with the status and issues of interactions between Human and Ocean Systems, Geo-risks, marine risks along coastal region of Asia- Pacific and also human influence on the earth system . The poster presentation focuses on capacity building of the local population, scientists and researchers for integration of human and ocean systems through Geohazards Studies on vulnerability and risk assessments along coastal regions. The poster presentation also focuses on building natural -social science research community for sustainable solutions adoptions and mitigations of impacts of extreme climate events on environment and ecosystems along coastal region.

Rural Nevada and climate change: vulnerability, beliefs, and risk perception.

PubMed

Safi, Ahmad Saleh; Smith, William James; Liu, Zhnongwei

2012-06-01

In this article, we present the results of a study investigating the influence of vulnerability to climate change as a function of physical vulnerability, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity on climate change risk perception. In 2008/2009, we surveyed Nevada ranchers and farmers to assess their climate change-related beliefs, and risk perceptions, political orientations, and socioeconomic characteristics. Ranchers' and farmers' sensitivity to climate change was measured through estimating the proportion of their household income originating from highly scarce water-dependent agriculture to the total income. Adaptive capacity was measured as a combination of the Social Status Index and the Poverty Index. Utilizing water availability and use, and population distribution GIS databases; we assessed water resource vulnerability in Nevada by zip code as an indicator of physical vulnerability to climate change. We performed correlation tests and multiple regression analyses to examine the impact of vulnerability and its three distinct components on risk perception. We find that vulnerability is not a significant determinant of risk perception. Physical vulnerability alone also does not impact risk perception. Both sensitivity and adaptive capacity increase risk perception. While age is not a significant determinant of it, gender plays an important role in shaping risk perception. Yet, general beliefs such as political orientations and climate change-specific beliefs such as believing in the anthropogenic causes of climate change and connecting the locally observed impacts (in this case drought) to climate change are the most prominent determinants of risk perception. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

V-DRASTIC: Using visualization to engage policymakers in groundwater vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A.; Cruz-Bello, Gustavo M.; Luna-González, Laura; Juárez, Lourdes; Ortiz-Pérez, Mario A.

2009-06-01

SummaryGroundwater vulnerability mapping is increasingly being used to design aquifer protection and management strategies. This paper presents a dynamic visualization method to groundwater vulnerability mapping. This method—called V-DRASTIC—extends the capacities of DRASTIC, an overlay/index technique that has been applied worldwide to evaluate the condition of hydrogeological factors and determine groundwater vulnerability at regional scales. V-DRASTIC is based upon psychophysics' principles (a theory that describes the people's response to a stimulus) to generate alternative groundwater vulnerability categorization schemes. These are used as inputs in a fuzzy pattern recognition procedure to enable planners, decision makers and stakeholders identify which scheme conveys meaningful information regarding groundwater vulnerability across a territory. V-DRASTIC was applied in the groundwater vulnerability assessment of two urban watersheds in Mexico.

Developing measurement indices to enhance protection and resilience of critical infrastructure and key resources.

PubMed

Fisher, Ronald E; Norman, Michael

2010-07-01

The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is developing indices to better assist in the risk management of critical infrastructures. The first of these indices is the Protective Measures Index - a quantitative index that measures overall protection across component categories: physical security, security management, security force, information sharing, protective measures and dependencies. The Protective Measures Index, which can also be recalculated as the Vulnerability Index, is a way to compare differing protective measures (eg fence versus security training). The second of these indices is the Resilience Index, which assesses a site's resilience and consists of three primary components: robustness, resourcefulness and recovery. The third index is the Criticality Index, which assesses the importance of a facility. The Criticality Index includes economic, human, governance and mass evacuation impacts. The Protective Measures Index, Resilience Index and Criticality Index are being developed as part of the Enhanced Critical Infrastructure Protection initiative that DHS protective security advisers implement across the nation at critical facilities. This paper describes two core themes: determination of the vulnerability, resilience and criticality of a facility and comparison of the indices at different facilities.

Community vulnerability to health impacts of wildland fire smoke exposure

EPA Science Inventory

Identifying communities vulnerable to adverse health effects from exposure to wildfire smoke may help prepare responses, increase the resilience to smoke and improve public health outcomes during smoke days. We developed a Community Health-Vulnerability Index (CHVI) based on fact...

Coastal Marsh Monitoring for Persistent Saltwater Intrusion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Callie M.

2008-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews NASA's work on the project that supports the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) Governors Action Plan to monitor the coastal wetlands for saltwater intrusion. The action items that relate to the task are: (1) Obtain information on projected relative sea level rise, subsidence, and storm vulnerability to help prioritize conservation projects, including restoration, enhancement, and acquisition, and (2) Develop and apply ecosystem models to forecast the habitat structure and succession following hurricane disturbance and changes in ecological functions and services that impact vital socio-economic aspects of coastal systems. The objectives of the program are to provide resource managers with remote sensing products that support ecosystem forecasting models requiring salinity and inundation data. Specifically, the proposed work supports the habitat-switching modules in the Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment and Restoration (CLEAR) model, which provides scientific evaluation for restoration management.

Assessing Risks from Cyclones for Human Lives and Livelihoods in the Coastal Region of Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Khan, Amanat Ullah; Kervyn, Matthieu

2017-01-01

As a disaster prone country, Bangladesh is regularly hit by natural hazards, including devastating cyclones, such as in 1970, 1991 and 2007. Although the number of cyclones’ fatalities reduced from 0.3 million in 1970 to a few thousand or fewer in recent events, loss of lives and impact on livelihoods remains a concern. It depends on the meteorological characteristics of cyclone and the general vulnerability and capacity of the exposed population. In that perspective, a spatially explicit risk assessment is an essential step towards targeted disaster risk reduction. This study aims at analyzing the spatial variation of the different factors contributing to the risk for coastal communities at regional scale, including the distribution of the hazards, exposure, vulnerability and capacity. An exploratory factor analysis method is used to map vulnerability contrasts between local administrative units. Indexing and ranking using geospatial techniques are used to produce maps of exposure, hazard, vulnerability, capacities and risk. Results show that vulnerable populations and exposed areas are distributed along the land sea boundary, islands and major inland rivers. The hazard, assessed from the density of historical cyclone paths, is highest in the southwestern part of the coast. Whereas cyclones shelters are shown to properly serve the most vulnerable populations as priority evacuation centers, the overall pattern of capacity accounting for building quality and road network shows a more complex pattern. Resultant risk maps also provide a reasonable basis from which to take further structural measures to minimize loss of lives in the upcoming cyclones. PMID:28757550

Development of a Probabilistic Decision-Support Model to Forecast Coastal Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, K.; Safak, I.; Brenner, O.; Lentz, E. E.; Hapke, C. J.

2016-02-01

Site-specific forecasts of coastal change are a valuable management tool in preparing for and assessing storm-driven impacts in coastal areas. More specifically, understanding the likelihood of storm impacts, recovery following events, and the alongshore variability of both is central in evaluating vulnerability and resiliency of barrier islands. We introduce a probabilistic modeling framework that integrates hydrodynamic, anthropogenic, and morphologic components of the barrier system to evaluate coastal change at Fire Island, New York. The model is structured on a Bayesian network (BN), which utilizes observations to learn statistical relationships between system variables. In addition to predictive ability, probabilistic models convey the level of confidence associated with a prediction, an important consideration for coastal managers. Our model predicts the likelihood of morphologic change on the upper beach based on several decades of beach monitoring data. A coupled hydrodynamic BN combines probabilistic and deterministic modeling approaches; by querying nearly two decades of nested-grid wave simulations that account for both distant swells and local seas, we produce scenarios of event and seasonal wave climates. The wave scenarios of total water level - a sum of run up, surge and tide - and anthropogenic modification are the primary drivers of morphologic change in our model structure. Preliminary results show the hydrodynamic BN is able to reproduce time series of total water levels, a critical validation process before generating scenarios, and forecasts of geomorphic change over three month intervals are up to 70% accurate. Predictions of storm-induced change and recovery are linked to evaluate zones of persistent vulnerability or resilience and will help managers target restoration efforts, identify areas most vulnerable to habitat degradation, and highlight resilient zones that may best support relocation of critical infrastructure.

A Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment of Coastal Landmarks along Cape Hatteras National Seashore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flynn, M. J.

2015-12-01

Cape Hatteras National Seashore is located along the Outer Banks, a narrow string of barrier islands in eastern North Carolina. The seashore was established to preserve cultural and natural resources of national significance, yet these islands have shoreline rates of change that are predominately erosional, frequently experience storm surge inundation driven by tropical and extra-tropical storm events, and are highly vulnerable to sea level rise. The National Park Service staff are concerned about the vulnerability of historic structures located within the park, and recognized the utility of a coastal hazard risk assessment to assist park managers with long-term planning. They formed a cooperative agreement with researchers at East Carolina University to conduct the assessment, which primarily used GIS to evaluate the susceptibility of 27 historical structures to coastal erosion, storm surge, and sea-level rise. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System was used to calculate a linear regression rate of shoreline movement based on historical shorelines. Those rates were used to simulate the future position of the shoreline along transects. The SLOSH model output was down scaled to a DEM generated from the 2014 NC QL2 LiDAR collection to determine the extent and depth of inundation that would occur from storm events. Sea level rise was modeled for various scenarios referenced to existing MHHW, and also added to each SLOSH model output to determine the effect of a storm event under those sea level rise scenarios. Risk maps were developed to include not only areal coverage for existing structures and districts, but also identify potential areas of relocation or retreat in the long-term. In addition to evaluating vulnerability, timelines for potential impacts provided scenarios for National Park Service staff to research adaption and mitigation strategies.

Changes in Landscape Pattern of Wetland around Hangzhou Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Wenpeng; Li, Yuan; Xu, Dan; Zeng, Ying

2018-04-01

Hangzhou Bay is an important estuarial coastal wetland, which offers a large number of land and ecological resources. It plays a significant role in the sustainable development of resources, environment and economy. In this paper, based on the remote sensing images in 1996, 2005 and 2013, we extracted the coastal wetland data and analyzed the wetland landscape pattern of the Hangzhou Bay in the past 20 years. The results show that: (1) the area of coastal wetland is heading downwards in the recent decades. Paddy field and the coastal wetland diminish greatly. (2) the single dynamic degree of wetland of the Hangzhou Bay displays that paddy fields and coastal wetlands are shrinking, but lakes, reservoirs and ponds are constantly expanding. (3) the wetland landscape pattern index shows that total patch area of the coastal wetland and paddy fields have gradually diminished. The Shannon diversity index, the Shannon evenness index as well as the landscape separation index of the coastal wetlands in the Hangzhou Bay increase steadily. The landscape pattern in the study area has shown a trend of high fragmentation, dominance decreases, but some dominant landscape still exist in this region. (4) Urbanization and natural factors lead to the reduction of wetland area. Besides the pressure of population is a major threat to the wetland. The study will provide scientific basis for long-term planning for this region.

Winter 2016, Part B—Coastal oblique aerial photographs collected from Assateague Island, Virginia, to Montauk Point, New York, March 8–9, 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morgan, Karen L. M.

2017-02-28

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project, conducts baseline and storm-response photography missions to document and understand the changes in the vulnerability of the Nation's coasts to extreme storms. On March 8–9, 2016, the USGS conducted an oblique aerial photographic survey from Assateague Island, Virginia, to Montauk Point, New York, aboard a Cessna 182 aircraft at an altitude of 500 feet and approximately 1,200 feet offshore. This mission was conducted to collect baseline data for assessing incremental changes in the beach and nearshore area and can be used to assess future coastal change.The photographs in this report document the state of the barrier islands and other coastal features at the time of the survey.

Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment Of Farmers and Nomads in Eastern Ecotone of Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, J.; Zhang, Y.

2011-12-01

Livelihood vulnerability assessment provides a scientific basis for anti-poverty of people and regional sustainable development in vulnerable area. Although there are massive discussions on concept of vulnerability, it is still difficult to make it quantitative and to carry out comprehensive appraise. Vulnerability assessments based on sustainable livelihood frame are widely accepted in case studies for attentions to vulnerable groups. However, these case studies are always on regional scale and never reflect how climate change affects people's livelihood and adaptive capability of people. It is necessary to seek vulnerable assessment index system and means based on livelihood process of local people. This paper develops a livelihood vulnerability assessment index system on the basis of sustainable livelihood framework and appraises livelihood vulnerability values of 11 townships, using data of 879 sample households. Livelihood vulnerability assessment index system reflects main risks, livelihood assets and adaptation strategies of local people and government. The results show that livelihood vulnerability level of plateau region is higher than that of mountain to plateau region and mountain gorge region. Manzhang Township in plateau region is the most vulnerable township and nomads there cannot cope with risks of climate change, meadow degeneration and herbs degradation. Upper part of mountain to plateau region and the whole plateau region have high livelihood vulnerability values and local nomads would not cope with risks if no measures are taken by government. The driving forces of livelihood vulnerability include strikes of risks and deficiency of livelihood assets and adaptive capability. Farmers and nomads in high mountain gorge region and lower part of mountain to plateau region can cope with these risks, meanwhile, there are more employment opportunities in second and tertiary industries are needed to help them realize livelihood diversification. Therefore, plateau region and upper part of mountain to plateau region is vulnerable region and active steps should be taken by government to strengthen adaptive capabilities of farmers and nomads. Government relief should shift from improvement of natural assets to improvement of human assets and financial assets, such as technique training, hospitalization insurance, animal disease prevention and treatment, low interest or interest-free loan, restoring gazing areas to grassland in black beach, restoring other degraded pastures.

Development of climate risk services under climate change scenarios in the North Adriatic coast (Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Anna, Sperotto; Elisa, Furlan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

2014-05-01

Nowadays, the challenge for coastal stakeholders and decision makers is to incorporate climate change in land and policy planning in order to ensure a sustainable integrated coastal zone management aimed at preserve coastal environments and socio-economic activities. Consequently, an increasing amount of information on climate variability and its impact on human and natural ecosystem is requested. Climate risk services allows to bridge the gap between climate experts and decision makers communicating timely science-based information about impacts and risks related to climate change that could be incorporated into land planning, policy and practice. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), a participatory Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was applied for the evaluation of water-related hazards in coastal areas (i.e. pluvial flood and sea-level rise inundation risks) taking into consideration future climate change scenarios in the case study of the North Adriatic Sea for the period 2040-2050. Specifically, through the analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk and the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the RRA methodology allowed to identify and prioritize targets (i.e. residential and commercial-industrial areas, beaches, infrastructures, wetlands, agricultural typology) and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood and sea-level rise impacts in the same region. From the early stages of the climate risk services development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the needs, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders dealing with the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), by means of questionnaires, workshops and focus groups organized within the project. Specifically, stakeholders were asked to provide their needs in terms of time scenarios, geographical scale and resolution, choice of receptors, vulnerability factors and thresholds that were considered in the implementation of the RRA methodology. The main output of the analysis are climate risk products produced with the DEcision support SYstem for COastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) and represented by GIS-based maps and statistics of hazard, exposure, physical and environmental vulnerability, risk and damage. These maps are useful to transfer information about climate change impacts to stakeholders and decision makers, to allow the classification and prioritization of areas that are likely to be affected by climate change impacts more severely than others in the same region, and therefore to support the identification of suitable areas for infrastructure, economic activities and human settlements toward the development of regional adaptation plans. The climate risk products and the results of North Adriatic case study will be here presented and discussed.

Restoration of the Mississippi Delta: Lessons from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, John W.; Boesch, Donald F.; Clairain, Ellis J.; Kemp, G. Paul; Laska, Shirley B.; Mitsch, William J.; Orth, Kenneth; Mashriqui, Hassan; Reed, Denise J.; Shabman, Leonard; Simenstad, Charles A.; Streever, Bill J.; Twilley, Robert R.; Watson, Chester C.; Wells, John T.; Whigham, Dennis F.

2007-03-01

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita showed the vulnerability of coastal communities and how human activities that caused deterioration of the Mississippi Deltaic Plain (MDP) exacerbated this vulnerability. The MDP formed by dynamic interactions between river and coast at various temporal and spatial scales, and human activity has reduced these interactions at all scales. Restoration efforts aim to re-establish this dynamic interaction, with emphasis on reconnecting the river to the deltaic plain. Science must guide MDP restoration, which will provide insights into delta restoration elsewhere and generally into coasts facing climate change in times of resource scarcity.

Subverting the Hegemony of Risk: Vulnerability and Transformation among Australian Show Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Danaher, P. A.; Danaher, Geoff; Moriarty, Beverley

2007-01-01

Background: Australian show people traverse extensive coastal and inland circuits in eastern and northern Australia, bringing the delights of "sideshow alley" to annual agricultural shows. The show people's mobility for most of the school year makes it difficult for their school-age children to attend "regular" schools…

Classification of Regional Patterns of Environmental Drivers and Benthic Habitats in Pacific Northwest Estuaries

EPA Science Inventory

While increased anthropogenic nutrient loading of coastal ecosystems is a growing ecological and economic problem both in the U.S. and globally, the extent of such excess nutrient loading in Pacific Northwest estuaries is poorly known. To help determine the vulnerability of Pacif...

Vulnerability of Water Resources under Climate and Land Use Change: Evaluation of Present and Future Threats for Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nachtnebel, Hans-Peter; Wesemann, Johannes; Herrnegger, Mathew; Senoner, Tobias; Schulz, Karsten

2015-04-01

Climate and Land Use Change can have severe impacts on natural water resources needed for domestic, agricultural and industrial water use. In order to develop adaptation strategies, it is necessary to assess the present and future vulnerability of the water resources on the basis of water quantity, water quality and adaptive capacity indicators. Therefore a methodological framework was developed within the CC-Ware project and a detailed assessment was performed for Austria. The Water Exploitation Index (WEI) is introduced as a quantitative indicator. It is defined as the ratio between the water demand and the water availability. Water availability is assessed by a high resolution grid-based water balance model, utilizing the meteorological information from bias corrected regional climate models. The demand term can be divided into domestic, agricultural and industrial water demand and is assessed on the water supply association level. The Integrated Groundwater Pollution Load Index (GWPLI) represents an indicator for areas at risk regarding water quality, considering agricultural loads (nitrate pollution loads), potential erosion and potential risks from landfills. Except for the landfills, the information for the current situation is based on the CORINE Landcover data. Future changes were predicted utilizing the PRELUDE land use scenarios. Since vulnerability is also dependent on the adaptive capacity of a system, the Adaptive Capacity Index is introduced. The Adaptive Capacity Index thereby combines the Ecosystem Service Index (ESSI), which represents three water related ecosystem services (Water Provision, Water Quantity Regulation and Water Quality Regulation) and the regional economic capacity expressed by the gross value added. On the basis of these indices, the Overall Vulnerability of the water resources can be determined for the present and the future. For Austria the different indices were elaborated. Maps indicating areas of different levels of vulnerability were developed. A comparison with existing data (River Basin Management Plan and Groundwater Chemistry Regulation) shows a good agreement between the elaborated maps and observations for the present state. The Overall Vulnerability is very low and low for most parts of Austria, especially in the forested alpine region. Bigger cities like Vienna, Graz and Linz show medium vulnerabilities, due to the high water demand and low ecosystem services. Only in the north-eastern and south-eastern part of the country some water supply associations with high and very high overall vulnerability exist. Groundwater recharge is quite small in these regions and the water quality is limited due to intense agriculture and possible threats through landfills. The developed framework allows an evaluation of water quantity and quality vulnerabilities for large scales for the present and the future. Including ecosystem services and gross value added an overall vulnerability can be determined.

LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY APPROACHES FOR DETECTING, MAPPING, AND ASSESSING THE VULNERABILITY OF DEPRESSIONAL WETLANDS

EPA Science Inventory

U.S. EPA is using a landscape ecology approach to assess the ecological/hydrologic functions and related human values of depressional wetlands along coastal Texas, considered to be vulnerable to human disturbance. Many of those wetlands may be at high risk because of recent court...

The Icarus challenge - Predicting vulnerability to climate change using an algorithm-based species’ trait approach

EPA Science Inventory

Like Icarus, the world’s ecological resources are “flying too close” to the sun, and climate change will impact near-coastal species through temperature, sea-level rise, and ocean acidification and indirectly through changes in invasive species and land-use patt...

A study on eco-environmental vulnerability of mining cities: a case study of Panzhihua city of Sichuan province in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Huaiyong; Xian, Wei; Yang, Wunian

2009-07-01

The large-scale and super-strength development of mineral resources in mining cities in long term has made great contributions to China's economic construction and development, but it has caused serious damage to the ecological environment even ecological imbalance at the same time because the neglect of the environmental impact even to the expense of the environment to some extent. In this study, according to the characteristics of mining cities, the scientific and practical eco-environmental vulnerability evaluation index system of mining cities had been established. Taking Panzhihua city of Sichuan province as an example, using remote sensing and GIS technology, applying various types of remote sensing image (TM, SPOT5, IKONOS) and Statistical data, the ecological environment evaluation data of mining cities was extracted effectively. For the non-linear relationship between the evaluation indexes and the degree of eco-environmental vulnerability in mining cities, this study innovative took the evaluation of eco-environmental vulnerability of the study area by using artificial neural network whose training used SCE-UA algorithm that well overcome the slow learning and difficult convergence of traditional neural network algorithm. The results of ecoenvironmental vulnerability evaluation of the study area were objective, reasonable and the credibility was high. The results showed that the area distribution of five eco-environmental vulnerability grade types was basically normal, and the overall ecological environment situation of Panzhihua city was in the middle level, the degree of eco-environmental vulnerability in the south was higher than the north, and mining activities were dominant factors to cause ecoenvironmental damage and eco-environmental Vulnerability. In this study, a comprehensive theory and technology system of regional eco-environmental vulnerability evaluation which included the establishment of eco-environmental vulnerability evaluation index system, processing of evaluation data and establishing of evaluation model. New ideas and methods had provided for eco-environmental vulnerability of mining cities.

A generational change in site index for naturally established longleaf pine on a south Alabama Coastal Plain site

Treesearch

William D. Boyer

2001-01-01

Research on longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) has been carried out for over 50 yr on a Coastal Plain site in south Alabama. Studies have included the original second-growth stands and also naturally established third-growth stands. Site index data revealed that estimated site index values for third growth generally exceeded those for second...

Measuring Road Network Vulnerability with Sensitivity Analysis

PubMed Central

Jun-qiang, Leng; Long-hai, Yang; Liu, Wei-yi; Zhao, Lin

2017-01-01

This paper focuses on the development of a method for road network vulnerability analysis, from the perspective of capacity degradation, which seeks to identify the critical infrastructures in the road network and the operational performance of the whole traffic system. This research involves defining the traffic utility index and modeling vulnerability of road segment, route, OD (Origin Destination) pair and road network. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis method is utilized to calculate the change of traffic utility index due to capacity degradation. This method, compared to traditional traffic assignment, can improve calculation efficiency and make the application of vulnerability analysis to large actual road network possible. Finally, all the above models and calculation method is applied to actual road network evaluation to verify its efficiency and utility. This approach can be used as a decision-supporting tool for evaluating the performance of road network and identifying critical infrastructures in transportation planning and management, especially in the resource allocation for mitigation and recovery. PMID:28125706

A Dynamic Flood Inundation Model Framework to Assess Coastal Flood Risk in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.; Alizad, K.; Medeiros, S. C.; Irish, J. L.

2015-12-01

Coastal regions around the world are susceptible to a variety of natural disasters causing extreme inundation. It is anticipated that the vulnerability of coastal cities will increase due to the effects of climate change, and in particular sea level rise (SLR). A novel framework was developed to generate a suite of physics-based storm surge models that include projections of coastal floodplain dynamics under climate change scenarios: shoreline erosion/accretion, dune morphology, salt marsh migration, and population dynamics. First, the storm surge inundation model was extensively validated for present day conditions with respect to astronomic tides and hindcasts of Hurricane Ivan (2004), Dennis (2005), Katrina (2005), and Isaac (2012). The model was then modified to characterize the future outlook of the landscape for four climate change scenarios for the year 2100 (B1, B2, A1B, and A2), and each climate change scenario was linked to a sea level rise of 0.2 m, 0.5 m, 1.2 m, and 2.0 m. The adapted model was then used to simulate hurricane storm surge conditions for each climate scenario using a variety of tropical cyclones as the forcing mechanism. The collection of results shows the intensification of inundation area and the vulnerability of the coast to potential future climate conditions. The methodology developed herein to assess coastal flooding under climate change can be performed across any coastal region worldwide, and results provide awareness of regions vulnerable to extreme flooding in the future. Note: The main theme behind this work is to appear in a future Earth's Future publication. Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, and D. L. Passeri (2014), Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(3), 927-934. Parris, A., et al. (2012), Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate AssessmentRep., 37 pp. Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, M. V. Bilskie, and S. C. Medeiros (2014), On the significance of incorporating shoreline changes for evaluating coastal hydrodynamics under sea level rise scenarios, Natural Hazards, 1599-1617. Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, M. V. Bilskie, K. Alizad, and D. Wang (2015), The dynamic effects of sea level rise on low gradient coastal landscapes: a review, Earth's Future, 3.

Development of ground-water vulnerability database for the U.S. Environmental protection agency's hazard ranking system using a geographic information system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clarke, John S.; Sorensen, Jerry W.; Strickland, Henry G.; Collins, George

1992-01-01

Geographic information system (GIS) methods were applied to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) hazard ranking system (HRS) to evaluate the vulnerability of ground water to contamination from actual or potential releases of hazardous materials from waste-disposal sites. Computerized maps of four factors influencing ground-water vulnerability - hydraulic conductivity, sorptive capacity, depth to water, and net precipitation - were derived for the Southeastern United States from digitized copies of published maps and from computerized databases, including the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) national water information system. To test the accuracy of the derived data coverages used to assess ground-water vulnerability, GIS-derived values for hydraulic conductivity, depth to water, and net precipitation were compared to corresponding values assigned by EPA's field investigation teams (FIT) at 28 hazardous waste sites. For each factor, site data were divided into three physiographic groupings: (1) Coastal Plain, (2) Valley and Ridge-Interior Low Plateaus, and (3) Piedmont-Blue Ridge. The best correlation between the paired data sets was for the net precipitation factor, where most GIS-derived values were within 0 to 40% of the FIT data, and 79% were within the same HRS scoring range. For the hydraulic conductivity factor, the best correlation between GIS and FIT data was for values derived from a published surficial deposits map, where most of the values were within one order of magnitude of the FIT data, and on the average were within 1.24 orders of magnitude of the FIT data. For this map, the best match between data sets was in the Coastal Plain province, where the difference in order to magnitude averaged 0.92. For the depth-to-water factor, most of the GIS derived values were within 51 to 100% of the FIT data, and only 44 to 50% of the sites were within a common scoring range. The best correlation for depth to water was in the Coastal Plain where GIS derived values were within 8 to 100% of the FIT data.

Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments.

PubMed

Rempel, Robert S; Hornseth, Megan L

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.

ABUNDANT OR RARE? A HYBRID APPROACH FOR DETERMINING SPECIES RELATIVE ABUNDANCE AT AN ECOREGOIONAL SCALE

EPA Science Inventory

Everyone knows what abundant and rare species are, but quantifying the concept proves elusive. As part of an EPA/USGS project to assess near-coastal species vulnerability to climate change affects, we designed a hybrid approach to determine species relative abundance at an ecoreg...

Vulnerability of port and harbor communities to earthquake and tsunami hazards: The use of GIS in community hazard planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.

2004-01-01

AbstractEarthquakes and tsunamis pose significant threats to Pacific Northwest coastal port and harbor communities. Developing holistic mitigation and preparedness strategies to reduce the potential for loss of life and property damage requires community-wide vulnerability assessments that transcend traditional site-specific analyses. The ability of a geographic information system (GIS) to integrate natural, socioeconomic, and hazards information makes it an ideal assessment tool to support community hazard planning efforts. This article summarizes how GIS was used to assess the vulnerability of an Oregon port and harbor community to earthquake and tsunami hazards, as part of a larger risk-reduction planning initiative. The primary purposes of the GIS were to highlight community vulnerability issues and to identify areas that both are susceptible to hazards and contain valued port and harbor community resources. Results of the GIS analyses can help decision makers with limited mitigation resources set priorities for increasing community resiliency to natural hazards.

Assessing climate change and health vulnerability at the local level: Travis County, Texas.

PubMed

Prudent, Natasha; Houghton, Adele; Luber, George

2016-10-01

We created a measure to help comprehend population vulnerability to potential flooding and excessive heat events using health, built environment and social factors. Through principal component analysis (PCA), we created non-weighted sum index scores of literature-reviewed social and built environment characteristics. We created baseline poor health measures using 1999-2005 age-adjusted cardiovascular and combined diabetes and hypertension mortality rates to correspond with social-built environment indices. We mapped US Census block groups by linked age-adjusted mortality and a PCA-created social-built environment index. The goal was to measure flooding and excessive heat event vulnerability as proxies for population vulnerability to climate change for Travis County, Texas. This assessment identified communities where baseline poor health, social marginalisation and built environmental impediments intersected. Such assessments may assist targeted interventions and improve emergency preparedness in identified vulnerable communities, while fostering resilience through the focus of climate change adaptation policies at the local level. No claim to original US government works. Journal compilation © 2016 Overseas Development Institute.

Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species. PMID:28225817

Towards a robust methodology to assess coastal impacts and adaptation policies for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, Michalis; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

2016-04-01

The present contribution aims to present preliminary results from efforts towards (i) the development of the integrated risk assessment tool LISCoAsT for Europe (Large scale Integrated Sea-level and Coastal Assessment Tool); (ii) the assessment of coastal risk along the European coastline in view of climate change; and (iii) the development and application of a robust methodology to evaluate adaptation options for the European coastline under climate change scenarios. The overall approach builds on the disaster risk methodology proposed by the IPCC SREX (2012) report, defining risk as the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Substantial effort has been put in all the individual components of the risk assessment chain, including: (1) the development of dynamic scenarios of catastrophic coastal hazards (e.g., storm surges, sea-level rise) in view of climate change; (2) quantification, mapping and forecasting exposure and vulnerability in coastal areas; (3) carrying out a bottom-up, highly disaggregated assessment of climate impacts on coastal areas in Europe in view of global warming; (4) estimating the costs and assessing the effectiveness of different adaptation options. Projections indicate that, by the end of this century, sea levels in Europe will rise on average between 45 and 70 cm; while projections of coastal hazard showed that for some European regions, the increased storminess can be an additional significant driver of further risk. Projections of increasing extreme storm surge levels (SSL) were even more pronounced under the business-as-usual RCP8.5 concentration pathway, in particular along the Northern Europe coastline. The above are also reflected in the coastal impact projections, which show a significant increase in the expected annual damage (EAD) from coastal flooding. The present EAD for Europe of 800 million €/year is projected to increase up to 2.4 and 3.2 billion €/year by 2040 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, and to 11.2 and 18.3 billion €/year by 2100 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively (values correspond to a medium ice-sheet behavior scenario). The projected Expected Annual Number of People forced to relocate because of RSLR by the year 2100 is 22,000 and 35,000 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Finally, the expected annual number of people affected by coastal flooding in Europe is projected to increase from presently 27,000 to 67,000 and 197,000 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively by 2040, and to 81,000 and 295,000 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively by 2100. Apart from improving the impact assessment approach, the main current priority is to advance further towards the evaluation of coastal adaptation and risk reduction strategies.

A Generational Change in Site Index for Naturally Established Longleaf Pine on a South Alabama Coastal Plain Site

Treesearch

William D. Boyer

2001-01-01

Research on longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) has been carried out for over 50 yr on a coastal plain site in south Alabama. Studies havie included the original second-growth stands and also naturally established third-growth stands. Site index data revealed that estimated site index values for third growth generally exceeded those for second...

Physio-climatic controls on vulnerability of watersheds to climate and land use change across the U. S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshmukh, Ankit; Singh, Riddhi

2016-11-01

Understanding how a watershed's physio-climatic characteristics affect its vulnerability to environmental (climatic and land use) change is crucial for managing these complex systems. In this study, we combine the strengths of recently developed exploratory modeling frameworks and comparative hydrology to quantify the relationship between watershed's vulnerability and its physio-climatic characteristics. We propose a definition of vulnerability that can be used by a diverse range of water system managers and is useful in the presence of large uncertainties in drivers of environmental change. This definition is related to adverse climate change and land use thresholds that are quantified using a recently developed exploratory modeling approach. In this way, we estimate the vulnerability of 69 watersheds in the United States to climate and land use change. We explore definitions of vulnerability that describe average or extreme flow conditions, as well as others that are relevant from the point of view of instream organisms. In order to understand the dominant controls on vulnerability, we correlate these indices with watershed's characteristics describing its topography, geology, drainage, climate, and land use. We find that mean annual flow is more vulnerable to reductions in precipitation in watersheds with lower average soil permeability, lower baseflow index, lower forest cover, higher topographical wetness index, and vice-versa. Our results also indicate a potential mediation of climate change impacts by regional groundwater systems. By developing such relationships across a large range of watersheds, such information can potentially be used to assess the vulnerability of ungauged watersheds to uncertain environmental change.

Vegetation cover, tidal amplitude and land area predict short-term marsh vulnerability in Coastal Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoolmaster, Donald; Stagg, Camille L.; Sharp, Leigh Anne; McGinnis, Tommy S.; Wood, Bernard; Piazza, Sarai

2018-01-01

The loss of coastal marshes is a topic of great concern, because these habitats provide tangible ecosystem services and are at risk from sea-level rise and human activities. In recent years, significant effort has gone into understanding and modeling the relationships between the biological and physical factors that contribute to marsh stability. Simulation-based process models suggest that marsh stability is the product of a complex feedback between sediment supply, flooding regime and vegetation response, resulting in elevation gains sufficient to match the combination of relative sea-level rise and losses from erosion. However, there have been few direct, empirical tests of these models, because long-term datasets that have captured sufficient numbers of marsh loss events in the context of a rigorous monitoring program are rare. We use a multi-year data set collected by the Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) that includes transitions of monitored vegetation plots to open water to build and test a predictive model of near-term marsh vulnerability. We found that despite the conclusions of previous process models, elevation change had no ability to predict the transition of vegetated marsh to open water. However, we found that the processes that drive elevation change were significant predictors of transitions. Specifically, vegetation cover in prior year, land area in the surrounding 1 km2 (an estimate of marsh fragmentation), and the interaction of tidal amplitude and position in tidal frame were all significant factors predicting marsh loss. This suggests that 1) elevation change is likely better a predictor of marsh loss at time scales longer than we consider in this study and 2) the significant predictive factors affect marsh vulnerability through pathways other than elevation change, such as resistance to erosion. In addition, we found that, while sensitivity of marsh vulnerability to the predictive factors varied spatially across coastal Louisiana, vegetation cover in prior year was the best single predictor of subsequent loss in most sites followed by changes in percent land and tidal amplitude. The model’s predicted land loss rates correlated well with land loss rates derived from satellite data, although agreement was spatially variable. These results indicate 1) monitoring the loss of small scale vegetation plots can inform patterns of land loss at larger scales 2) the drivers of land loss vary spatially across coastal Louisiana, and 3) relatively simple models have potential as highly informative tools for bioassessment, directing future research, and management planning.

Extended Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Coastal Impact Assessment: Spatial Coastal Population Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merkens, Jan-Ludolf; Reimann, Lena; Hinkel, Jochen; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.

2016-04-01

This work extends the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) by developing spatial projections of global coastal population distribution for the five basic SSPs. Based on a series of coastal migration drivers, which were identified from existing literature, we develop coastal narratives for the five basic SSPs (SSP1-5). These narratives account for differences in coastal versus inland population development in urban and rural areas. To spatially distribute population we use the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) national population and urbanisation projections and employ country-specific growth rates which differ for coastal and inland as well as for urban and rural regions. These rates are derived from spatial analysis of historical population data. We then adjust these rates for each SSP based on the coastal narratives. The resulting global population grids depict the projected distribution of coastal population for each SSP, until the end of the 21st century, at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. These grids exhibit a three- to four-fold increase in coastal population compared to the basic SSPs. Across all SSPs, except for SSP3, coastal population peaks by the middle of the 21st century and declines afterwards. In SSP3 the coastal population grows continuously until 2100. Compared to the base year 2000 the coastal population increases considerably in all SSPs. The extended SSPs are intended to be utilised in Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) assessments as they allow for improved analysis of exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding under different physical and socioeconomic scenarios.

Methods, Tools, and Data for Coastal System Resilience Assessments

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-06

Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities ( BRIC ) BUILDING STRONG® Innovative solutions for a safer, better world ► T: SoVI® – Social...address policy  Objective, although data may be arbitrarily weighted in an index Examples: Top-Down (T) and Bottom-Up (B) Bottom-UpTop-Down BRIC ...Coastal Resilience Index USACE’s Resilience Matrix ASCE’s Infrastructure Report Card T: Baseline Resilience Index for Communities ( BRIC

Arizona - Social Vulnerability Index

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Social Vulnerability Index is derived from the 2000 US Census data. The fields included are percent minority, median household income, age (under 18 and over 64), population without a high school diploma, linguistically isolated households, and single female head of households with own children under 18 (single moms). The data is at the block group level. Each field for each block group is assigned an index score of 0-3, based on whether the value of that dataset falls in the top quartile (score=3), second quartile (score=2), third quartile (score=1), or bottom quartile (score=0). The scores for each field are then added together to assign a comprehensive score to each block group (0-21). The highest scores are block groups that have the highest percentage of sensitive populations (highest percent minority, lowest per capita income, highest percent of population under 18 and over 64, highest percentage of population without a high school degree, highest percent of linguistically isolated households, and highest percent of single female head of households). Zoe Heller of the US EPA Region 9's Communities and Ecosystems Division, is responsible for the design and development of the Social Vulnerability Index data set.

Intensified coastal development in beach-nourishment zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazarus, E.; Armstrong, S.; Limber, P. W.; Goldstein, E. B.; Ballinger, R.

2016-12-01

Population density, housing development, and property values in coastal counties along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts continue to rise despite increasing hazard from storm impacts. Beach nourishment, a method for mitigating coastal storm damage or chronic erosion by deliberately replacing sand on an eroded beach, has been the leading form of coastal protection in the U.S. since the 1970s. However, investment in hazard protection can have the unintended consequence of encouraging development in places especially vulnerable to damage. To quantitatively compare development in nourishing and non-nourishing zones, we examine the parcel-scale housing stock of all shorefront single-family homes in the state of Florida. We find that houses in nourishing zones are significantly larger and more numerous than in non-nourishing zones. Florida represents both an advanced case of coastal risk and an exemplar of ubiquitous, fundamental challenges in coastal management. The predominance of larger homes in nourishing zones indicates a positive feedback between nourishment and development that is compounding coastal risk in zones already characterized by high vulnerability. We offer that this phenomenon represents a variant of Jevons' paradox, a theoretical argument from environmental economics in which more efficient use of a resource spurs an increase in its consumption. Here, we suggest reductions in coastal risk through hazard protection are ultimately offset or reversed by increased coastal development.

Using High-Resolution Imagery to Characterize Disturbance from Hurricane Irma in South Florida Wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagomasino, D.; Cook, B.; Fatoyinbo, T.; Morton, D. C.; Montesano, P.; Neigh, C. S. R.; Wooten, M.; Gaiser, E.; Troxler, T.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Irma, one of the strongest hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic, first made landfall in the Florida Keys before coming ashore in southwestern Florida near Everglades National Park (ENP) on September 9th and 10th of this year. Strong winds and storm surge impacted a 100+ km stretch of the southern Florida Gulf Coast, resulting in extensive damages to coastal and inland ecosystems. Impacts from previous catastrophic storms in the region have led to irreversible changes to vegetation communities and in some areas, ecosystem collapse. The processes that drive coastal wetland vulnerability and resilience are largely a function of the severity of the impact to forest structure and ground elevation. Remotely sensed imagery plays an important role in measuring changes to the landscape, particularly for extensive and inaccessible regions like the mangroves in ENP. We have estimated changes in coastal vegetation structure and soil elevation using a combination of repeat measurements from ground, airborne, and satellite platforms. At the ground level, we used before and after Structure-from-Motion models to capture the change in below canopy structure as result of stem breakage and fallen branches. Using airborne imagery collected before and after Hurricane Irma by Goddard's Lidar, Hyperspectral, and Thermal (G-LiHT) Airborne Imager, we measured the change in forest structure and soil elevation. This unique data acquisition covered an area over 130,000 ha in regions most heavily impacted storm surge. Lastly, we also combined commercial and NASA satellite Earth observations to measure forest structural changes across the entire South Florida coast. An analysis of long-term observations from the Landsat data archive highlights the heterogeneity of hurricane and other environmental disturbances along the Florida coast. These findings captured coastal disturbance legacies that have the potential to influence the trajectory of mangrove resilience and vulnerability following Hurricane Irma. The synergies between these unique field, airborne, and satellite observations help to capture both the legacy and immediate ecosystem responses following catastrophic storms and will ultimately be used to improve storm surge models and provide predictions for future vulnerability and degradation.

Family vulnerability index to disability and dependence (FVI-DD), by social and health conditions.

PubMed

Amendola, Fernanda; Alvarenga, Márcia Regina Martins; Latorre, Maria do Rosário Dias de Oliveira; Oliveira, Maria Amélia de Campos

2017-06-01

The Family Vulnerability Index to Disability and Dependence (FVI-DD) aims to summarize the dimensions of vulnerability to disability and dependence using family data monitored by Family Health Strategy (ESF) teams. This study aims to analyze the FVI-DD according to the social and health vulnerability, to validate and extract a cutoff point for each dimension. The FVI-DD was built with a sample of 248 families living in a region of São Paulo. The dimension related to health conditions was validated with good internal consistency, with respect to the Katz Index and the Lawton Scale, whereas the dimension related to social conditions was only validated in relation to Lawton Scale. Thus, a vulnerable family was defined as one with 15 or more points in the Total FVI-DD, and a vulnerable family in health conditions that with a score of 6 or more points in that dimension. Therefore, it is possible to classify families as not vulnerable, vulnerable in the social aspects, vulnerable in the health aspects and the more vulnerable family (social and health) using social indicators of empowerment and wear and health indicators related not only to the biological sphere, but also in the access to health services, health self-assessment and existing vulnerable groups.

Vulnerability and Tradeoffs of Dairy Farmers to the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radhakrishnan, A.; Gupta, J.; R, D.

2016-12-01

In recent years climate variability has threatened the sustainability of dairy animals and dairy farming in India. The study aims at assessing the vulnerability and tradeoffs of Dairy Based Livelihoods to Climate Variability and Change in the Western Ghat ecosystem and for this purpose; data were aggregated to an overall Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) to Climate Change underlying the principles of IPCC, using 28 indicators and trade-off between vulnerability and milk production was calculated. Data were collected through Participatory Rural Appraisal and personal interviews from 360 randomly selected dairy farmers of three states of Western Ghat region, complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data and livestock data. The index score of dairy based livelihoods of many regions were negative. Lanja taluka of Maharashtra has highest level of vulnerability with overall LVI value -4.17 with 48% farmers falling in highly vulnerable category. There is also significant tradeoff between milk production and components of LVI. Thus our research will provide an important basis for policy makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies for alarming situation and decision making for farmers to minimize the risk of dairy sector to climate variability.

Modelling social vulnerability in sub-Saharan West Africa using a geographical information system

PubMed Central

Arokoyu, Samuel B.

2015-01-01

In recent times, disasters and risk management have gained significant attention, especially with increasing awareness of the risks and increasing impact of natural and other hazards especially in the developing world. Vulnerability, the potential for loss of life or property from disaster, has biophysical or social dimensions. Social vulnerability relates to societal attributes which has negative impacts on disaster outcomes. This study sought to develop a spatially explicit index of social vulnerability, thus addressing the dearth of research in this area in sub-Saharan Africa. Nineteen variables were identified covering various aspects. Descriptive analysis of these variables revealed high heterogeneity across the South West region of Nigeria for both the state and the local government areas (LGAs). Feature identification using correlation analysis identified six important variables. Factor analysis identified two dimensions, namely accessibility and socioeconomic conditions, from this subset. A social vulnerability index (SoVI) showed that Ondo and Ekiti have more vulnerable LGAs than other states in the region. About 50% of the LGAs in Osun and Ogun have a relatively low social vulnerability. Distribution of the SoVI shows that there are great differences within states as well as across regions. Scores of population density, disability and poverty have a high margin of error in relation to mean state scores. The study showed that with a geographical information system there are opportunities to model social vulnerability and monitor its evolution and dynamics across the continent.

Construction of an integrated social vulnerability index in urban areas prone to flash flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aroca-Jimenez, Estefania; Bodoque, Jose Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Diez-Herrero, Andres

2017-09-01

Among the natural hazards, flash flooding is the leading cause of weather-related deaths. Flood risk management (FRM) in this context requires a comprehensive assessment of the social risk component. In this regard, integrated social vulnerability (ISV) can incorporate spatial distribution and contribution and the combined effect of exposure, sensitivity and resilience to total vulnerability, although these components are often disregarded. ISV is defined by the demographic and socio-economic characteristics that condition a population's capacity to cope with, resist and recover from risk and can be expressed as the integrated social vulnerability index (ISVI). This study describes a methodological approach towards constructing the ISVI in urban areas prone to flash flooding in Castilla y León (Castile and León, northern central Spain, 94 223 km2, 2 478 376 inhabitants). A hierarchical segmentation analysis (HSA) was performed prior to the principal components analysis (PCA), which helped to overcome the sample size limitation inherent in PCA. ISVI was obtained from weighting vulnerability factors based on the tolerance statistic. In addition, latent class cluster analysis (LCCA) was carried out to identify spatial patterns of vulnerability within the study area. Our results show that the ISVI has high spatial variability. Moreover, the source of vulnerability in each urban area cluster can be identified from LCCA. These findings make it possible to design tailor-made strategies for FRM, thereby increasing the efficiency of plans and policies and helping to reduce the cost of mitigation measures.

Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: Gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network.

PubMed

Osland, Michael J; Griffith, Kereen T; Larriviere, Jack C; Feher, Laura C; Cahoon, Donald R; Enwright, Nicholas M; Oster, David A; Tirpak, John M; Woodrey, Mark S; Collini, Renee C; Baustian, Joseph J; Breithaupt, Joshua L; Cherry, Julia A; Conrad, Jeremy R; Cormier, Nicole; Coronado-Molina, Carlos A; Donoghue, Joseph F; Graham, Sean A; Harper, Jennifer W; Hester, Mark W; Howard, Rebecca J; Krauss, Ken W; Kroes, Daniel E; Lane, Robert R; McKee, Karen L; Mendelssohn, Irving A; Middleton, Beth A; Moon, Jena A; Piazza, Sarai C; Rankin, Nicole M; Sklar, Fred H; Steyer, Greg D; Swanson, Kathleen M; Swarzenski, Christopher M; Vervaeke, William C; Willis, Jonathan M; Wilson, K Van

2017-01-01

Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana's network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be used to transform a broadly disseminated and unplanned collection of SET-MH stations into a coordinated and strategic regional network. This regional network would provide data for predicting and preparing for the responses of coastal wetlands to accelerated sea-level rise and other aspects of global change.

Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: Gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Larriviere, Jack C.; Feher, Laura C.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Oster, David A.; Tirpak, John M.; Woodrey, Mark S.; Collini, Renee C.; Baustian, Joseph J.; Breithaupt, Joshua L.; Cherry, Julia A; Conrad, Jeremy R.; Cormier, Nicole; Coronado-Molina, Carlos A.; Donoghue, Joseph F.; Graham, Sean A.; Harper, Jennifer W.; Hester, Mark W.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Krauss, Ken W.; Kroes, Daniel; Lane, Robert R.; Mckee, Karen L.; Mendelssohn, Irving A.; Middleton, Beth A.; Moon, Jena A.; Piazza, Sarai; Rankin, Nicole M.; Sklar, Fred H.; Steyer, Gregory D.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Swarzenski, Christopher M.; Vervaeke, William; Willis, Jonathan M; Van Wilson, K.

2017-01-01

Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana’s network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be used to transform a broadly disseminated and unplanned collection of SET-MH stations into a coordinated and strategic regional network. This regional network would provide data for predicting and preparing for the responses of coastal wetlands to accelerated sea-level rise and other aspects of global change.

Region 9 - Social Vulnerability Index

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Social Vulnerability Index is derived from the 2000 US Census data. The fields included are percent minority, median household income, age (under 18 and over 64), population without a high school diploma, linguistically isolated households, and single female head of households with own children under 18 (single moms). The data is at the block group level. Each field for each block group is assigned an index score of 0-3, based on whether the value of that dataset falls in the top quartile (score=3), second quartile (score=2), third quartile (score=1), or bottom quartile (score=0). The scores for each field are then added together to assign a comprehensive score to each block group (0-21). The highest scores are block groups that have the highest percentage of sensitive populations (highest percent minority, lowest per capita income, highest percent of population under 18 and over 64, highest percentage of population without a high school degree, highest percent of linguistically isolated households, and highest percent of single female head of households). Zoe Heller of the US EPA Region 9's Communities and Ecosystems Division, is responsible for the design and development of the Social Vulnerability Index data set.

Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: Gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network

PubMed Central

Griffith, Kereen T.; Larriviere, Jack C.; Feher, Laura C.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Oster, David A.; Tirpak, John M.; Woodrey, Mark S.; Collini, Renee C.; Baustian, Joseph J.; Breithaupt, Joshua L.; Cherry, Julia A.; Conrad, Jeremy R.; Cormier, Nicole; Coronado-Molina, Carlos A.; Donoghue, Joseph F.; Graham, Sean A.; Harper, Jennifer W.; Hester, Mark W.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Krauss, Ken W.; Kroes, Daniel E.; Lane, Robert R.; McKee, Karen L.; Mendelssohn, Irving A.; Middleton, Beth A.; Moon, Jena A.; Piazza, Sarai C.; Rankin, Nicole M.; Sklar, Fred H.; Steyer, Greg D.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Swarzenski, Christopher M.; Vervaeke, William C.; Willis, Jonathan M.; Wilson, K. Van

2017-01-01

Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana’s network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be used to transform a broadly disseminated and unplanned collection of SET-MH stations into a coordinated and strategic regional network. This regional network would provide data for predicting and preparing for the responses of coastal wetlands to accelerated sea-level rise and other aspects of global change. PMID:28902904

Winter 2016, Part A—Coastal oblique aerial photographs collected from the South Carolina/North Carolina border to Assateague Island, Virginia, February 18–19, 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morgan, Karen L. M.

2017-02-28

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project, conducts baseline and storm-response photography missions to document and understand the changes in the vulnerability of the Nation's coasts to extreme storms. On February 18–19, 2016, the USGS conducted an oblique aerial photographic survey from the South Carolina/North Carolina border to Assateague Island, Virginia, aboard a Cessna 182 (aircraft) at an altitude of 500 feet (ft) and approximately 1,200 ft offshore. This mission was flown to collect baseline data for assessing incremental changes in the beach and nearshore area and can be used to assess future coastal change.The photographs in this report document the state of the barrier islands and other coastal features at the time of the survey.

Post-Hurricane Katrina coastal oblique aerial photographs collected from Panama City, Florida, to Lakeshore, Mississippi, and the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, August 31, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morgan, Karen L. M.; DeWitt, Nancy T.

2017-04-03

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of the National Assessment of Storm-Induced Coastal Change Hazards project, conducts baseline and storm-response photography missions to document and understand the changes in vulnerability of the Nation's coasts to extreme storms. On August 31, 2005, the USGS conducted an oblique aerial photographic survey from Panama City, Florida, to Lakeshore, Mississippi, and the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, aboard a Piper Navajo Chieftain aircraft at an altitude of 500 feet and approximately 1,000 feet offshore. This mission was flown to collect post-Hurricane Katrina data, which can be used to assess incremental changes in the beach and nearshore area and can be used to assess future coastal change.The photographs in this report are Joint Photographic Experts Group (JPEG) images. These photographs document the state of the barrier islands and other coastal features at the time of the survey.

Baseline coastal oblique aerial photographs collected from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to Breton Island, Louisiana, June 9, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morgan, Karen L. M.

2017-04-03

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of the National Assessment of Storm-Induced Coastal Change Hazards project, conducts baseline and storm-response photography missions to document and understand the changes in vulnerability of the Nation's coasts to extreme storms. On June 9, 2011, the USGS conducted an oblique aerial photographic survey from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to Breton Island, Louisiana, aboard a Beechcraft BE90 King Air (aircraft) at an altitude of 500 feet (ft) (152 meters (m)) and approximately 1,200 ft (366 m) offshore. This mission was conducted to collect baseline data for assessing incremental changes in the beach and nearshore area and can be used to assess future coastal change.The photographs in this report are Joint Photographic Experts Group (JPEG) images. These photographs document the state of the barrier islands and other coastal features at the time of the survey.

Image Mining in Remote Sensing for Coastal Wetlands Mapping: from Pixel Based to Object Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farda, N. M.; Danoedoro, P.; Hartono; Harjoko, A.

2016-11-01

The availably of remote sensing image data is numerous now, and with a large amount of data it makes “knowledge gap” in extraction of selected information, especially coastal wetlands. Coastal wetlands provide ecosystem services essential to people and the environment. The aim of this research is to extract coastal wetlands information from satellite data using pixel based and object based image mining approach. Landsat MSS, Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+, and Landsat 8 OLI images located in Segara Anakan lagoon are selected to represent data at various multi temporal images. The input for image mining are visible and near infrared bands, PCA band, invers PCA bands, mean shift segmentation bands, bare soil index, vegetation index, wetness index, elevation from SRTM and ASTER GDEM, and GLCM (Harralick) or variability texture. There is three methods were applied to extract coastal wetlands using image mining: pixel based - Decision Tree C4.5, pixel based - Back Propagation Neural Network, and object based - Mean Shift segmentation and Decision Tree C4.5. The results show that remote sensing image mining can be used to map coastal wetlands ecosystem. Decision Tree C4.5 can be mapped with highest accuracy (0.75 overall kappa). The availability of remote sensing image mining for mapping coastal wetlands is very important to provide better understanding about their spatiotemporal coastal wetlands dynamics distribution.

Policies for Reducing Coastal Risk on the East and Gulf Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glickson, D.; Johnson, S.

2014-12-01

Hurricane- and coastal storm-related economic losses have increased substantially over the past century, largely due to expanding population and development in susceptible coastal areas. Concurrent with this growth, the federal government has assumed an increasing proportion of the financial responsibility associated with U.S. coastal storms, which may discourage state and local governments from taking appropriate actions to reduce risk and enhance resilience. Strategies to manage coastal storm risks fall into two categories: reducing the probability of flooding or wave impact (such as seawalls, storm surge barriers, beach nourishment, dune building, restoration/expansion of oyster reefs, salt marshes, and mangroves) and reducing the number or vulnerability of people or structures (such as relocation, land-use planning, and elevating or floodproofing buildings). Over the past century, most coastal risk management programs have emphasized coastal armoring, while doing little to decrease development in harm's way. This National Research Council report calls for the development of a national vision for managing coastal risks that includes a long-term view, regional solutions, and recognition of all benefits. A national coastal risk assessment is needed to identify high priority areas. Benefit-cost analysis provides a reasonable framework to evaluate national investments in coastal risk reduction, if constrained by other important environmental, social, and life-safety factors. Extensive collaboration and additional policy changes will be necessary to move from a nation that is primarily reactive to coastal disasters to one that invests wisely in coastal risk reduction and builds resilience among coastal communities.

Variations in population vulnerability to tectonic and landslide-related tsunami hazards in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Peters, Jeff

2015-01-01

Effective tsunami risk reduction requires an understanding of how at-risk populations are specifically vulnerable to tsunami threats. Vulnerability assessments primarily have been based on single hazard zones, even though a coastal community may be threatened by multiple tsunami sources that vary locally in terms of inundation extents and wave arrival times. We use the Alaskan coastal communities of Cordova, Kodiak, Seward, Valdez, and Whittier (USA), as a case study to explore population vulnerability to multiple tsunami threats. We use anisotropic pedestrian evacuation models to assess variations in population exposure as a function of travel time out of hazard zones associated with tectonic and landslide-related tsunamis (based on scenarios similar to the 1964 M w9.2 Good Friday earthquake and tsunami disaster). Results demonstrate that there are thousands of residents, employees, and business customers in tsunami hazard zones associated with tectonically generated waves, but that at-risk individuals will likely have sufficient time to evacuate to high ground before waves are estimated to arrive 30–60 min after generation. Tsunami hazard zones associated with submarine landslides initiated by a subduction zone earthquake are smaller and contain fewer people, but many at-risk individuals may not have enough time to evacuate as waves are estimated to arrive in 1–2 min and evacuations may need to occur during earthquake ground shaking. For all hazard zones, employees and customers at businesses far outnumber residents at their homes and evacuation travel times are highest on docks and along waterfronts. Results suggest that population vulnerability studies related to tsunami hazards should recognize non-residential populations and differences in wave arrival times if emergency managers are to develop realistic preparedness and outreach efforts.

Evaluation of a Heat Vulnerability Index on Abnormally Hot Days: An Environmental Public Health Tracking Study

PubMed Central

Mann, Jennifer K.; Alfasso, Ruth; English, Paul B.; King, Galatea C.; Lincoln, Rebecca A.; Margolis, Helene G.; Rubado, Dan J.; Sabato, Joseph E.; West, Nancy L.; Woods, Brian; Navarro, Kathleen M.; Balmes, John R.

2012-01-01

Background: Extreme hot weather conditions have been associated with increased morbidity and mortality, but risks are not evenly distributed throughout the population. Previously, a heat vulnerability index (HVI) was created to geographically locate populations with increased vulnerability to heat in metropolitan areas throughout the United States. Objectives: We sought to determine whether areas with higher heat vulnerability, as characterized by the HVI, experienced higher rates of morbidity and mortality on abnormally hot days. Methods: We used Poisson regression to model the interaction of HVI and deviant days (days whose deviation of maximum temperature from the 30-year normal maximum temperature is at or above the 95th percentile) on hospitalization and mortality counts in five states participating in the Environmental Public Health Tracking Network for the years 2000 through 2007. Results: The HVI was associated with higher hospitalization and mortality rates in all states on both normal days and deviant days. However, associations were significantly stronger (interaction p-value < 0.05) on deviant days for heat-related illness, acute renal failure, electrolyte imbalance, and nephritis in California, heat-related illness in Washington, all-cause mortality in New Mexico, and respiratory hospitalizations in Massachusetts. Conclusion: Our results suggest that the HVI may be a marker of health vulnerability in general, although it may indicate greater vulnerability to heat in some cases. PMID:22538066

Drought vulnerability assessment of maize in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from physical and social perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamali, Bahareh; Abbaspour, Karim C.; Wehrli, Bernhard; Yang, Hong

2018-03-01

Drought as a slow-onset phenomenon inflicts important losses to agriculture where the degree of vulnerability depends not only on physical variables such as precipitation and temperature, but also on societal preparedness. While the scopes of physical and social vulnerability are very different in nature, studies distinguishing these two aspects have been lacking. In this study we address the physical and social aspects of drought vulnerability of maize (CDVIphy and CDVIsoc) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To quantify vulnerability, we applied a probabilistic framework combining a Drought Exposure Index (DEI) with a physical or social Crop Failure Index, CFIphy or CFIsoc, respectively. DEI was derived from the exceedance probability of precipitation. Maize yields, simulated using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model, were used to build CFIphy, whereas the residual of simulated and FAO recorded yields were used to construct CFIsoc. The results showed that southern and partially central Africa are more vulnerable to physical drought as compared to other regions. Central and western Africa, however, are socially highly vulnerable. Comparison of CDVIphy and CDVIsoc revealed that societal factors cause more vulnerability than physical variables in almost all SSA countries except Nigeria and South Africa. We conclude that quantification of both drought vulnerabilities help a better characterization of droughts and identify regions where more investments in drought preparedness are required.

ABUNDANT OR RARE? A HYBRID APPROACH FOR DETERMINING SPECIES RELATIVE ABUNDANCE AT AN ECOREGOIONAL SCALE - 2014

EPA Science Inventory

Everyone knows what abundant and rare species are, but quantifying the concept proves elusive. As part of an EPA/USGS project to assess near-coastal species vulnerability to climate change affects, we designed a hybrid approach to determine species relative abundance at an ecoreg...

Introduction to the special issue on “Understanding and predicting change in the coastal ecosystems of the northern Gulf of Mexico”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brock, John C.; Barras, John A.; Williams, S. Jeffress

2013-01-01

The coastal region of the northern Gulf of Mexico owes its current landscape structure to an array of tectonic, erosional and depositional, climatic, geochemical, hydrological, ecological, and human processes that have resulted in some of the world's most complex, dynamic, productive, and threatened ecosystems. Catastrophic hurricane landfalls, ongoing subsidence and erosion exacerbated by sea-level rise, disintegration of barrier island chains, and high rates of wetland loss have called attention to the vulnerability of northern Gulf coast ecosystems, habitats, built infrastructure, and economy to natural and anthropogenic threats. The devastating hurricanes of 2005 (Katrina and Rita) motivated the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program and partnering researchers to pursue studies aimed at understanding and predicting landscape change and the associated storm hazard vulnerability of northern Gulf coast region ecosystems and human communities. Attaining this science goal requires increased knowledge of landscape evolution on geologic, historical, and human time scales, and analysis of the implications of such changes in the natural and built components of the landscape for hurricane impact susceptibility. This Special Issue of the Journal of Coastal Research communicates northern Gulf of Mexico research results that (1) improve knowledge of prior climates and depositional environments, (2) assess broad regional ecosystem structure and change over Holocene to human time scales, (3) undertake process studies and change analyses of dynamic landscape components, and (4) integrate framework, climate, variable time and spatial scale mapping, monitoring, and discipline-specific process investigations within interdisciplinary studies.

Compositing climate change vulnerability of a Mediterranean region using spatiotemporally dynamic proxies for ecological and socioeconomic impacts and stabilities.

PubMed

Demirkesen, Ali Can; Evrendilek, Fatih

2017-01-01

The study presents a new methodology to quantify spatiotemporal dynamics of climate change vulnerability at a regional scale adopting a new conceptual model of vulnerability as a function of climate change impacts, ecological stability, and socioeconomic stability. Spatiotemporal trends of equally weighted proxy variables for the three vulnerability components were generated to develop a composite climate change vulnerability index (CCVI) for a Mediterranean region of Turkey combining Landsat time series data, digital elevation model (DEM)-derived data, ordinary kriging, and geographical information system. Climate change impact was based on spatiotemporal trends of August land surface temperature (LST) between 1987 and 2016. Ecological stability was based on DEM, slope, aspect, and spatiotemporal trends of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), while socioeconomic stability was quantified as a function of spatiotemporal trends of land cover, population density, per capita gross domestic product, and illiteracy. The zones ranked on the five classes of no-to-extreme vulnerability were identified where highly and moderately vulnerable lands covered 0.02% (12 km 2 ) and 11.8% (6374 km 2 ) of the study region, respectively, mostly occurring in the interior central part. The adoption of this composite CCVI approach is expected to lead to spatiotemporally dynamic policy recommendations towards sustainability and tailor preventive and mitigative measures to locally specific characteristics of coupled ecological-socioeconomic systems.

Assessing groundwater vulnerability to agrichemical contamination in the Midwest US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkart, M.R.; Kolpin, D.W.; James, D.E.

1999-01-01

Agrichemicals (herbicides and nitrate) are significant sources of diffuse pollution to groundwater. Indirect methods are needed to assess the potential for groundwater contamination by diffuse sources because groundwater monitoring is too costly to adequately define the geographic extent of contamination at a regional or national scale. This paper presents examples of the application of statistical, overlay and index, and process-based modeling methods for groundwater vulnerability assessments to a variety of data from the Midwest U.S. The principles for vulnerability assessment include both intrinsic (pedologic, climatologic, and hydrogeologic factors) and specific (contaminant and other anthropogenic factors) vulnerability of a location. Statistical methods use the frequency of contaminant occurrence, contaminant concentration, or contamination probability as a response variable. Statistical assessments are useful for defining the relations among explanatory and response variables whether they define intrinsic or specific vulnerability. Multivariate statistical analyses are useful for ranking variables critical to estimating water quality responses of interest. Overlay and index methods involve intersecting maps of intrinsic and specific vulnerability properties and indexing the variables by applying appropriate weights. Deterministic models use process-based equations to simulate contaminant transport and are distinguished from the other methods in their potential to predict contaminant transport in both space and time. An example of a one-dimensional leaching model linked to a geographic information system (GIS) to define a regional metamodel for contamination in the Midwest is included.

Assessment of Water Sustainability Index Using Reliability-Resilience-Vulnerability Criteria Considering Climatic Variation over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lakshmi, V.; Mondal, A.; Kundu, S.

2016-12-01

Abstract:Precipitation can be considered as a key factor in Water Resources Sustainability (WRS). In India, WRS varies with widely varying distribution of precipitation. The economy of the India is based on agricultural production which mainly depends on rainfall. The main focus of the paper is assessment of Water Sustainability based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method for evaluating drought and non-drought conditionsin India using a precipitation data of a long time period (1871-2014). The study area has been divided into thirty sub-regions on the basis homogeneity pattern of rainfall distribution. The performance criteria such as, Reliability, Resilience, Vulnerability and Relative Vulnerability (RV) have been applied in this study. The ranges of water sustainably (WS), vulnerability, relative vulnerability and drought resilience are 0.26 to 0.67, 0.52 to 1.06, 0.22 to 0.61 and 0.72 to 1 respectively. Specifically, WS of Gangetic West Bengal, Naga-Mani-Mizo-trip, Konkan-Goa, Chattisgarh and Kerala are less (0.26, 0.31, 0.35, 0.38 and 0.38 respectively) while Punjab, Marathwada, West Rajasthan and Vidarbha are more (0.57, 0.60, 0.67 and 0.57 respectively).Finally, WS and RV have shown negative correlation (R2=0.86) while WS and drought resilience have shown positive correlation (R2=0.60). The results have clearly illustrated a scenario of entire India, which can be helpful in agricultural management in future. Key Words: Sustainability, SPI, Reliability, Resilience, Vulnerability

Assessment of social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautam, Dipendra

2017-12-01

This paper investigates district-wide social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal. Disasters such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, epidemics, and droughts are common in Nepal. Every year thousands of people are killed and huge economic and environmental losses occur in Nepal due to various natural hazards. Although natural hazards are well recognized, quantitative and qualitative social vulnerability mapping has not existed until now in Nepal. This study aims to quantify the social vulnerability on a local scale, considering all 75 districts using the available census. To perform district-level vulnerability mapping, 13 variables were selected and aggregated indexes were plotted in an ArcGIS environment. The sum of results shows that only 4 districts in Nepal have a very low social vulnerability index whereas 46 districts (61 %) are at moderate to high social vulnerability levels. Vulnerability mapping highlights the immediate need for decentralized frameworks to tackle natural hazards in district level; additionally, the results of this study can contribute to preparedness, planning and resource management, inter-district coordination, contingency planning, and public awareness efforts.

Climate Risk and Vulnerability in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Region: Interactions with Spatial Population and Land Cover Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, R. S.; Levy, M.; Baptista, S.; Adamo, S.

2010-12-01

Vulnerability to climate variability and change will depend on dynamic interactions between different aspects of climate, land-use change, and socioeconomic trends. Measurements and projections of these changes are difficult at the local scale but necessary for effective planning. New data sources and methods make it possible to assess land-use and socioeconomic changes that may affect future patterns of climate vulnerability. In this paper we report on new time series data sets that reveal trends in the spatial patterns of climate vulnerability in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Region. Specifically, we examine spatial time series data for human population over the period 1990-2000, time series data on land use and land cover over 2000-2009, and infant mortality rates as a proxy for poverty for 2000-2008. We compare the spatial trends for these measures to the distribution of climate-related natural disaster risk hotspots (cyclones, floods, landslides, and droughts) in terms of frequency, mortality, and economic losses. We use these data to identify areas where climate vulnerability appears to be increasing and where it may be decreasing. Regions where trends and patterns are especially worrisome include coastal areas of Guatemala and Honduras.

Quantification of intensive hybrid coastal reclamation for revealing its impacts on macrozoobenthos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Jiaguo; Cui, Baoshan; Zheng, Jingjing; Xie, Tian; Wang, Qing; Li, Shanze

2015-01-01

Managing and identifying the sources of anthropogenic stress in coastal wetlands requires an in-depth understanding of relationships between species diversity and human activities. Empirical and experimental studies provide clear evidence that coastal reclamation can have profound impacts on marine organisms, but the focus of such studies is generally on comparative or laboratory research. We developed a compound intensity index (reclamation intensity index, RI) on hybrid coastal reclamation, to quantify the impacts of reclamation on coastal ecosystems. We also made use of mean annual absolute changes to a number of biotic variables (biodiversity, species richness, biomass of total macrozoobenthos, and species richness and biomass of Polychaeta, Mollusca, Crustacea, and Echinodermata) to determine Hedges’d index, which is a measure of the potential effects of coastal reclamation. Our results showed that there was significant difference of coastal reclamation intensity between Yellow Sea, East China Sea and South China Sea, the biological changes in effect sizes of the three regions differed greatly over time. Our modelling analyses showed that hybrid coastal reclamation generally had significant negative impacts on species diversity and biomass of macrozoobenthos. These relationships varied among different taxonomic groups and included both linear and nonlinear relationships. The results indicated that a high-intensity of coastal reclamation contributed to a pronounced decline in species diversity and biomass, while lower-intensity reclamation, or reclamation within certain thresholds, resulted in a small increase in species diversity and biomass. These results have important implications for biodiversity conservation and the ecological restoration of coastal wetlands in face of the intensive reclamation activities.

Spatially explicit assessment of heat health risk by using multi-sensor remote sensing images and socioeconomic data in Yangtze River Delta, China.

PubMed

Chen, Qian; Ding, Mingjun; Yang, Xuchao; Hu, Kejia; Qi, Jiaguo

2018-05-25

The increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events, which are potentially associated with climate change in the near future, highlights the importance of heat health risk assessment, a significant reference for heat-related death reduction and intervention. However, a spatiotemporal mismatch exists between gridded heat hazard and human exposure in risk assessment, which hinders the identification of high-risk areas at finer scales. A human settlement index integrated by nighttime light images, enhanced vegetation index, and digital elevation model data was utilized to assess the human exposure at high spatial resolution. Heat hazard and vulnerability index were generated by land surface temperature and demographic and socioeconomic census data, respectively. Spatially explicit assessment of heat health risk and its driving factors was conducted in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), east China at 250 m pixel level. High-risk areas were mainly distributed in the urbanized areas of YRD, which were mostly driven by high human exposure and heat hazard index. In some less-urbanized cities and suburban and rural areas of mega-cities, the heat health risks are in second priority. The risks in some less-developed areas were high despite the low human exposure index because of high heat hazard and vulnerability index. This study illustrated a methodology for identifying high-risk areas by combining freely available multi-source data. Highly urbanized areas were considered hotspots of high heat health risks, which were largely driven by the increasing urban heat island effects and population density in urban areas. Repercussions of overheating were weakened due to the low social vulnerability in some central areas benefitting from the low proportion of sensitive population or the high level of socioeconomic development. By contrast, high social vulnerability intensifies heat health risks in some less-urbanized cities and suburban areas of mega-cities.

Hydrologic index development and application to selected Coastwide Reference Monitoring System sites and Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection and Restoration Act projects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snedden, Gregg A.; Swenson, Erick M.

2012-01-01

Hourly time-series salinity and water-level data are collected at all stations within the Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) network across coastal Louisiana. These data, in addition to vegetation and soils data collected as part of CRMS, are used to develop a suite of metrics and indices to assess wetland condition in coastal Louisiana. This document addresses the primary objectives of the CRMS hydrologic analytical team, which were to (1) adopt standard time-series analytical techniques that could effectively assess spatial and temporal variability in hydrologic characteristics across the Louisiana coastal zone on site, project, basin, and coastwide scales and (2) develop and apply an index based on wetland hydrology that can describe the suitability of local hydrology in the context of maximizing the productivity of wetland plant communities. Approaches to quantifying tidal variability (least squares harmonic analysis) and partitioning variability of time-series data to various time scales (spectral analysis) are presented. The relation between marsh elevation and the tidal frame of a given hydrograph is described. A hydrologic index that integrates water-level and salinity data, which are collected hourly, with vegetation data that are collected annually is developed. To demonstrate its utility, the hydrologic index is applied to 173 CRMS sites across the coast, and variability in index scores across marsh vegetation types (fresh, intermediate, brackish, and saline) is assessed. The index is also applied to 11 sites located in three Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection and Restoration Act projects, and the ability of the index to convey temporal hydrologic variability in response to climatic stressors and restoration measures, as well as the effect that this community may have on wetland plant productivity, is illustrated.

Evaluation of social vulnerability to floods in Huaihe River basin: a methodology based on catastrophe theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, W. J.; Zhang, Y. L.

2015-08-01

Huaihe River is one of the seven largest rivers in China, in which floods occurred frequently. Disasters cause huge casualties and property losses to the basin, and also make it famous for high social vulnerability to floods. Based on the latest social-economic data, the index system of social vulnerability to floods was constructed, and Catastrophe theory method was used in the assessment process. The conclusion shows that social vulnerability as a basic attribute attached to urban environment, with significant changes from city to city across the Huaihe River basin. Different distribution characteristics are present in population, economy, flood prevention vulnerability. It is important to make further development of social vulnerability, which will play a positive role in disaster prevention, improvement of comprehensive ability to respond to disasters.

Laboratory test of a novel structural model of anxiety sensitivity and panic vulnerability.

PubMed

Bernstein, Amit; Zvolensky, Michael J; Zvolensky, Michael J; Schmidt, Norman B

2009-06-01

The current study evaluated a novel latent structural model of anxiety sensitivity (AS) in relation to panic vulnerability among a sample of young adults (N=216). AS was measured using the 16-item Anxiety Sensitivity Index (ASI; Reiss, Peterson, Gursky, & McNally, 1986), and panic vulnerability was indexed by panic attack responding to a single administration of a 4-minute, 10% CO(2) challenge. As predicted, vulnerability for panic attack responding to biological challenge was associated with dichotomous individual differences between taxonic AS classes and continuous within-taxon class individual differences in AS physical concerns. Findings supported the AS taxonic-dimensional hypothesis of AS latent structure and panic vulnerability. These findings are discussed in terms of their theoretical and clinical implications.

A Heat Vulnerability Index: Spatial Patterns of Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity for Santiago de Chile.

PubMed

Inostroza, Luis; Palme, Massimo; de la Barrera, Francisco

2016-01-01

Climate change will worsen the high levels of urban vulnerability in Latin American cities due to specific environmental stressors. Some impacts of climate change, such as high temperatures in urban environments, have not yet been addressed through adaptation strategies, which are based on poorly supported data. These impacts remain outside the scope of urban planning. New spatially explicit approaches that identify highly vulnerable urban areas and include specific adaptation requirements are needed in current urban planning practices to cope with heat hazards. In this paper, a heat vulnerability index is proposed for Santiago, Chile. The index was created using a GIS-based spatial information system and was constructed from spatially explicit indexes for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity levels derived from remote sensing data and socio-economic information assessed via principal component analysis (PCA). The objective of this study is to determine the levels of heat vulnerability at local scales by providing insights into these indexes at the intra city scale. The results reveal a spatial pattern of heat vulnerability with strong variations among individual spatial indexes. While exposure and adaptive capacities depict a clear spatial pattern, sensitivity follows a complex spatial distribution. These conditions change when examining PCA results, showing that sensitivity is more robust than exposure and adaptive capacity. These indexes can be used both for urban planning purposes and for proposing specific policies and measures that can help minimize heat hazards in highly dynamic urban areas. The proposed methodology can be applied to other Latin American cities to support policy making.

A Heat Vulnerability Index: Spatial Patterns of Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity for Santiago de Chile

PubMed Central

Palme, Massimo; de la Barrera, Francisco

2016-01-01

Climate change will worsen the high levels of urban vulnerability in Latin American cities due to specific environmental stressors. Some impacts of climate change, such as high temperatures in urban environments, have not yet been addressed through adaptation strategies, which are based on poorly supported data. These impacts remain outside the scope of urban planning. New spatially explicit approaches that identify highly vulnerable urban areas and include specific adaptation requirements are needed in current urban planning practices to cope with heat hazards. In this paper, a heat vulnerability index is proposed for Santiago, Chile. The index was created using a GIS-based spatial information system and was constructed from spatially explicit indexes for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity levels derived from remote sensing data and socio-economic information assessed via principal component analysis (PCA). The objective of this study is to determine the levels of heat vulnerability at local scales by providing insights into these indexes at the intra city scale. The results reveal a spatial pattern of heat vulnerability with strong variations among individual spatial indexes. While exposure and adaptive capacities depict a clear spatial pattern, sensitivity follows a complex spatial distribution. These conditions change when examining PCA results, showing that sensitivity is more robust than exposure and adaptive capacity. These indexes can be used both for urban planning purposes and for proposing specific policies and measures that can help minimize heat hazards in highly dynamic urban areas. The proposed methodology can be applied to other Latin American cities to support policy making. PMID:27606592

Vulnerability assessment in a participatory approach to design and implement community based adaptation to drought in the Peruvian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasage, Ralph; Muis, Sanne; Sardella, Carolina; van Drunen, Michiel; Verburg, Peter; Aerts, Jeroen

2015-04-01

The livelihoods of people in the Andes are expected to be affected by climate change due to their dependence on glacier meltwater during the growing season. The observed decrease in glacier volume over the last few decades is likely to accelerate during the current century, which will affect water availability in the region. This paper presents the implementation of an approach for the participatory development of community-based adaptation measures to cope with the projected impacts of climate change, which was implemented jointly by the local community and by a team consisting of an NGO, Peruvian ministry of environment, research organisations and a private sector organisation. It bases participatory design on physical measurements, modelling and a vulnerability analysis. Vulnerability to drought is made operational for households in a catchment of the Ocoña river basin in Peru. On the basis of a household survey we explore how a vulnerability index (impacts divided by the households' perceived adaptive capacity) can be used to assess the distribution of vulnerability over households in a sub catchment. The socio-economic factors water entitlement, area of irrigated land, income and education are all significantly correlate with this vulnerability to drought. The index proved to be appropriate for communicating about vulnerability to climate change and its determining factors with different stakeholders. The water system research showed that the main source of spring water is local rainwater, and that water use efficiency in farming is low. The adaptation measures that were jointly selected by the communities and the project team aimed to increase water availability close to farmland, and increase water use efficiency, and these will help to reduce the communities vulnerability to drought.

A new approach for computing a flood vulnerability index using cluster analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, Paulo; Mourato, Sandra; Moreira, Madalena; Pereira, Luísa

2016-08-01

A Flood Vulnerability Index (FloodVI) was developed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a new aggregation method based on Cluster Analysis (CA). PCA simplifies a large number of variables into a few uncorrelated factors representing the social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. CA groups areas that have the same characteristics in terms of vulnerability into vulnerability classes. The grouping of the areas determines their classification contrary to other aggregation methods in which the areas' classification determines their grouping. While other aggregation methods distribute the areas into classes, in an artificial manner, by imposing a certain probability for an area to belong to a certain class, as determined by the assumption that the aggregation measure used is normally distributed, CA does not constrain the distribution of the areas by the classes. FloodVI was designed at the neighbourhood level and was applied to the Portuguese municipality of Vila Nova de Gaia where several flood events have taken place in the recent past. The FloodVI sensitivity was assessed using three different aggregation methods: the sum of component scores, the first component score and the weighted sum of component scores. The results highlight the sensitivity of the FloodVI to different aggregation methods. Both sum of component scores and weighted sum of component scores have shown similar results. The first component score aggregation method classifies almost all areas as having medium vulnerability and finally the results obtained using the CA show a distinct differentiation of the vulnerability where hot spots can be clearly identified. The information provided by records of previous flood events corroborate the results obtained with CA, because the inundated areas with greater damages are those that are identified as high and very high vulnerability areas by CA. This supports the fact that CA provides a reliable FloodVI.

Effect of ecological group classification schemes on performance of the AMBI benthic index in US coastal waters

EPA Science Inventory

The AZTI Marine Biotic Index (AMBI) requires less geographically-specific calibration than other benthic indices, but has not performed as well in US coastal waters as it has in the European waters for which it was originally developed. Here we examine the extent of improvement i...

East Java Maritime Connectivity and Its Regional Development Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purboyo, H.; Ibad, M. Z.

2017-07-01

The study presents an evolution of maritime connectivity index of East Java which is associated with accessibility and mobility index of regions in East Java. The findings show that East Java increased connectivity more than three times from 1996 to 2011. Initially, the East Java is importer but then become exporter to national territory. For accessibility, the inland regions of East Java in general is higher than the coastal areas. And for mobility, inland regions initially have a small index, but in subsequent years its index is greater than the coastal areas.

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment.

PubMed

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

Vulnerability of China's nearshore ecosystems under intensive mariculture development.

PubMed

Liu, Hui; Su, Jilan

2017-04-01

Rapid economic development and increasing population in China have exerted tremendous pressures on the coastal ecosystems. In addition to land-based pollutants and reclamation, fast expansion of large-scale intensive mariculture activities has also brought about additional effects. So far, the ecological impact of rapid mariculture development and its large-scale operations has not drawn enough attention. In this paper, the rapid development of mariculture in China is reviewed, China's effort in the application of ecological mariculture is examined, and the vulnerability of marine ecosystem to mariculture impact is evaluated through a number of examples. Removal or reduced large and forage fish, due to both habitat loss to reclamation/mariculture and overfishing for food or fishmeal, may have far-reaching effects on the coastal and shelf ecosystems in the long run. Large-scale intensive mariculture operations carry with them undesirable biological and biochemical characteristics, which may have consequences on natural ecosystems beyond normally perceived spatial and temporal boundaries. As our understanding of possible impacts of large-scale intensive mariculture is lagging far behind its development, much research is urgently needed.

UAS-SfM for coastal research: Geomorphic feature extraction and land cover classification from high-resolution elevation and optical imagery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sturdivant, Emily; Lentz, Erika; Thieler, E. Robert; Farris, Amy; Weber, Kathryn; Remsen, David P.; Miner, Simon; Henderson, Rachel

2017-01-01

The vulnerability of coastal systems to hazards such as storms and sea-level rise is typically characterized using a combination of ground and manned airborne systems that have limited spatial or temporal scales. Structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry applied to imagery acquired by unmanned aerial systems (UAS) offers a rapid and inexpensive means to produce high-resolution topographic and visual reflectance datasets that rival existing lidar and imagery standards. Here, we use SfM to produce an elevation point cloud, an orthomosaic, and a digital elevation model (DEM) from data collected by UAS at a beach and wetland site in Massachusetts, USA. We apply existing methods to (a) determine the position of shorelines and foredunes using a feature extraction routine developed for lidar point clouds and (b) map land cover from the rasterized surfaces using a supervised classification routine. In both analyses, we experimentally vary the input datasets to understand the benefits and limitations of UAS-SfM for coastal vulnerability assessment. We find that (a) geomorphic features are extracted from the SfM point cloud with near-continuous coverage and sub-meter precision, better than was possible from a recent lidar dataset covering the same area; and (b) land cover classification is greatly improved by including topographic data with visual reflectance, but changes to resolution (when <50 cm) have little influence on the classification accuracy.

Geomorphological hazard and tourist vulnerability along Portofino Park trails (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandolini, P.; Faccini, F.; Piccazzo, M.

2006-06-01

The many trails existing in the coastal area of Portofino Promontory are used by tourists for trekking or as pathways to small villages and beaches. The aim of this paper is to define geomorphological hazard and tourist vulnerability in this area, within the framework of the management and planning of hiking activities in Portofino Natural Park. In particular, processes triggered by gravity, running waters and wave motion, affecting the slopes and the cliff, are considered. The typology of the trails and trail maintenance are also taken into account in relation to weather conditions that can make the excursion routes dangerous for tourists. In conclusion, an operative model is applied for the definition of possible risk scenarios. This model is founded on an inventory and the quantification of geomorphological hazards and tourist vulnerability, in comparison with trail rescue data. The model can be applied to other environments and tourist areas.

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N. H.

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

Review Article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

2017-07-01

In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.

Publications - RDF 2014-20 | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical

Science.gov Websites

Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in Download golovin-lidar-las-index Shapefile 71.0 K Metadata - Read me Keywords Coastal; Coastal and River

The conservation status and anthropogenic impacts assessments of Mediterranean coastal dunes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinna, Maria Silvia; Cogoni, Donatella; Fenu, Giuseppe; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

2015-12-01

Mediterranean coastal dunes have been highly modified by human impacts and understanding their conservation status is crucial to preserve these extremely vulnerable habitats. In the present study three different diversity indices elaborated by Grunewald and Schubert (Hdune, a modified version of the Shannon diversity index, Edune, a modified Evenness index, and N, the Naturalness index) were applied in order to assess the conservation status and anthropogenic impacts on Is Arenas dune system (CW Sardinia), one of the widest and most important in the Western Mediterranean Basin. Within the system, two sites with different anthropic disturbance conditions were selected; 25 permanent plots were seasonally monitored and the cover of each vascular plant present was visually estimated. The Hdune values were similar between sites and differences were not significant; Edune showed higher value in the North than in the South site with relevant statistical differences. Moreover a seasonal variation in the indices values was recorded, which could be linked to presence of annual plants rather than the touristic pressure. Instead, the small variability of N index suggests that the application of this index may be an important tool to assess human impact on coastal dunes, but better discriminates between sites with different disturbance degrees. Our results highlight the usefulness of Hdune and Edune indices to assess the conservation status of a Mediterranean coastal dune system, while these indices are less influenced by the human trampling at finer scale (sites within the beach). Spring and summer are the best seasons when the main plant diversity of Mediterranean coastal dune can be captured. The diversity indices applied, although need to be developed through further researches, could be a quickly tool allowing to assess the integrity of the coastal dunes in order to plan management actions of these complex and threatened ecosystems.

Socioeconomic Factors and Vulnerability to Outbreaks of Leptospirosis in Nicaragua

PubMed Central

Bacallao, Jorge; Schneider, Maria Cristina; Najera, Patricia; Aldighieri, Sylvain; Soto, Aida; Marquiño, Wilmer; Sáenz, Carlos; Jiménez, Eduardo; Moreno, Gilberto; Chávez, Octavio; Galan, Deise I.; Espinal, Marcos A.

2014-01-01

Leptospirosis is an epidemic-prone zoonotic disease that occurs worldwide, with more than 500,000 human cases reported annually. It is influenced by environmental and socioeconomic factors that affect the occurrence of outbreaks and the incidence of the disease. Critical areas and potential drivers for leptospirosis outbreaks have been identified in Nicaragua, where several conditions converge and create an appropriate scenario for the development of leptospirosis. The objectives of this study were to explore possible socioeconomic variables related to leptospirosis critical areas and to construct and validate a vulnerability index based on municipal socioeconomic indicators. Municipalities with lower socioeconomic status (greater unsatisfied basic needs for quality of the household and for sanitary services, and higher extreme poverty and illiteracy rates) were identified with the highest leptospirosis rates. The municipalities with highest local vulnerability index should be the priority for intervention. A distinction between risk given by environmental factors and vulnerability to risk given by socioeconomic conditions was shown as important, which also applies to the “causes of outbreaks” and “causes of cases”. PMID:25153463

Water security and services in the ocean-aquifer system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taniguchi, M.

2011-12-01

Coastal vulnerability and water security are both important research subjects on global environmental problems under the pressures of changing climate and societies. A six years research project by RIHN on the coastal subsurface environments in seven Asia cities revealed that subsurface environmental problems including saltwater intrusion, groundwater contamination and subsurface thermal anomalies occurred one after another depending on the development stage of the cities during the last 100 years. Exchanges of water between ocean and aquifer in the coastal cities depend on driving force from land of natural resources capacities such as groundwater recharge rate, and social changes such as excessive groundwater pumping due to industrialization. Risk assessments and managements for aquifers which are parts of water security have been made for seven Asian coastal cities. On the other hand, submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) into the ocean provides water services directly to the coastal ecosystem through nutrient transports from land to the ocean. Constant geophysical and geochemical conditions served by SGD provide sustainable services to the coastal environment. Flora and fauna which prefer brackish water in the coastal zone depend on not only river water discharge but also SGD. Ocean -aquifer interaction can be found in the coastal ecosystem including sea shell, sea grass and fishes in the coastal zone though SGD. In order to evaluate a coastal security and sustainable environment, not only risk assessments due to disasters but also water services are important, and the both are evaluated in Asian coastal zones.

Development of a heat vulnerability index for New York State.

PubMed

Nayak, S G; Shrestha, S; Kinney, P L; Ross, Z; Sheridan, S C; Pantea, C I; Hsu, W H; Muscatiello, N; Hwang, S A

2017-12-01

The frequency and intensity of extreme heat events are increasing in New York State (NYS) and have been linked with increased heat-related morbidity and mortality. But these effects are not uniform across the state and can vary across large regions due to regional sociodemographic and environmental factors which impact an individual's response or adaptive capacity to heat and in turn contribute to vulnerability among certain populations. We developed a heat vulnerability index (HVI) to identify heat-vulnerable populations and regions in NYS. Census tract level environmental and sociodemographic heat-vulnerability variables were used to develop the HVI to identify heat-vulnerable populations and areas. Variables were identified from a comprehensive literature review and climate-health research in NYS. We obtained data from 2010 US Census Bureau and 2011 National Land Cover Database. We used principal component analysis to reduce correlated variables to fewer uncorrelated components, and then calculated the cumulative HVI for each census tract by summing up the scores across the components. The HVI was then mapped across NYS (excluding New York City) to display spatial vulnerability. The prevalence rates of heat stress were compared across HVI score categories. Thirteen variables were reduced to four meaningful components representing 1) social/language vulnerability; 2) socioeconomic vulnerability; 3) environmental/urban vulnerability; and 4) elderly/ social isolation. Vulnerability to heat varied spatially in NYS with the HVI showing that metropolitan areas were most vulnerable, with language barriers and socioeconomic disadvantage contributing to the most vulnerability. Reliability of the HVI was supported by preliminary results where higher rates of heat stress were collocated in the regions with the highest HVI. The NYS HVI showed spatial variability in heat vulnerability across the state. Mapping the HVI allows quick identification of regions in NYS that could benefit from targeted interventions. The HVI will be used as a planning tool to help allocate appropriate adaptation measures like cooling centers and issue heat alerts to mitigate effects of heat in vulnerable areas. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Tsunami vulnerability assessment mapping for the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia using a geographical information system (GIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najihah, R.; Effendi, D. M.; Hairunnisa, M. A.; Masiri, K.

2014-02-01

The catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 raised a number of questions for scientist and politicians on how to deal with the tsunami risk and assessment in coastal regions. This paper discusses the challenges in tsunami vulnerability assessment and presents the result of tsunami disaster mapping and vulnerability assessment study for West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The spatial analysis was carried out using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology to demarcate spatially the tsunami affected village's boundary and suitable disaster management program can be quickly and easily developed. In combination with other thematic maps such as road maps, rail maps, school maps, and topographic map sheets it was possible to plan the accessibility and shelter to the affected people. The tsunami vulnerability map was used to identify the vulnerability of villages/village population to tsunami. In the tsunami vulnerability map, the intensity of the tsunami was classified as hazard zones based on the inundation level in meter (contour). The approach produced a tsunami vulnerability assessment map consists of considering scenarios of plausible extreme, tsunami-generating events, computing the tsunami inundation levels caused by different events and scenarios and estimating the possible range of casualties for computing inundation levels. The study provides an interactive means to identify the tsunami affected areas after the disaster and mapping the tsunami vulnerable village before for planning purpose were the essential exercises for managing future disasters.

UAS close range remote sensing for mapping coastal environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papakonstantinou, Apostolos; Topouzelis, Kostantinos; Doukari, Michaela

2017-09-01

Coastline change and marine litter concentration in shoreline zones are two different emerging problems indicating the vulnerability as well as the quality of a coastal environment. Both problems present spatiotemporal changes due to weather and anthropogenic factors. Traditionally spatiotemporal changes in coastal environments are monitored using high-resolution satellite images and manned surveys. The last years, Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) are used as additional tool for monitoring environmental phenomena in sensitive coastal areas. In this study, two different case studies for mapping emerging coastal phenomena i.e. coastline changes and marine litter in Lesvos island, are presented. Both phenomena have increasing interest among scientists monitoring sensitive coastal areas. This paper outlines the integration of UAS for data acquisition and Structure from Motion (SfM) pipeline for the visualization of selected coastal areas in the Aegean Sea. The followed UAS-SfM methodology produces very detailed orthophoto maps. This high resolution spatial information is used for mapping and detecting primarily, marine litter on coastal and underwater zones and secondly, coastline changes and coastal erosion. More specific the produced orthophoto maps analyzed through GIS and with the use of the appropriate cartographic techniques the objective environmental parameters were mapped. Results showed that UAS-SfM pipeline produces geoinformation with high accuracy and spatial resolution that helps scientists to map with confidence environmental changes that take place in shoreline zones.

Assessment of intrinsic vulnerability of an alluvial aquifer under anthropogenic pressure: cross comparison of 4 index-based groundwater vulnerability mapping models within the Biguglia lagoon watershed (Corsica, France).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaunat, Jessy; Huneau, Frédéric; Garel, Emilie; Devos, Alain; Lejeune, Olivier

2016-04-01

KEYWORDS: Alluvial aquifer, Vulnerability mapping, Index-based methods, DRASTIC, SINTACS, SI, GOD The geographical position of the Biguglia lagoon watershed south of the Bastia city (80 000 inhabitants), lead to a highly vulnerable hydrosystem setting. This littoral plain is the unique territory available for the urbanisation and for the agriculture activities (cattle breeding). All the activities developed are likely to have a qualitative impact on water infiltration and therefore on groundwater, which is in hydraulic connection with the lagoon system. Beyond this ecological issue, groundwater of this watershed is intensively used as drinking water supply. It appears essential to control the long-term groundwater quality of the Biguglia plain which is the major economic zone of Corsica. Achievement of this issue requires the identification of the areas where the alluvial aquifer is mostly vulnerable to anthropogenic activities. The results given by 4 of the most popular index-based vulnerability mapping methods (DRASTIC, SI, SINTACS and GOD) are compared. The water table, net recharge, aquifer and soils properties, topography, vadose zone and land uses have been precisely mapped and numerically translated in GIS with a 25m precision. 4 final maps were finally compiled according to the weighting factors of each methods. Hydrochemical investigations were also carried out on 30 sampling points (major ions and anthropogenic tracers) to evaluate the effect of anthropogenic activities on groundwater quality and also to validate the results of the vulnerability mapping. A comparison between the parametric models shows a significant agreement between the DRASTIC, SINTACS and SI results (2% to 5% of the total area in very low vulnerability class, 10% to 13% in low vulnerability, 16% to 23% in medium vulnerability, 31% to 53% in high vulnerability and 14% to 23% in very high vulnerability). The two first methods are quite similar, which explains the proximity of the obtained results. High vulnerability and very high vulnerability classes are noticeably different for the SI results. This can be partly explained by the consideration of the land use and the absence of parameters related to soil media, vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity in this model, which generates a larger surface in highly vulnerable class at the expense of the very highly vulnerable one. Conversely, the GOD method gives very different results especially in the very low and low vulnerability classes with 11% and 17% of the total area respectively. This last method underestimates the vulnerability in the hydrological context of this work. The DRASTIC and SINTACS models are those that best transcribe the field observations. With these models the most vulnerable zones are correlated with the highest concentrations of nitrates measured in groundwater. Thereafter, it will be essential to integrate the temporal variability of the imputed parameters and to link these results with the acquired data on origin and residence time of groundwater in the alluvial aquifer of Biguglia lagoon. This study was supported by CNRS Labex DRIIHM OHM Littoral méditerranéen (HYDROGEO-LAG project).

Increasing Risk Awareness: The Coastal Community Resilience Index

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Jody A.; Sempier, Tracie; Swann, LaDon

2012-01-01

As the number of people moving to the Gulf Coast increases, so does the risk of exposure to floods, hurricanes, and other storm-related events. In an effort to assist communities in preparing for future storm events, the Coastal Community Resilience Index was created. The end result is for communities to take actions to address the weaknesses they…

Vulnerability assessment of a port and harbor community to earthquake and tsunami hazards: Integrating technical expert and stakeholder input

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.; Goodwin, Robert F.

2002-01-01

Research suggests that the Pacific Northwest could experience catastrophic earthquakes and tsunamis in the near future, posing a significant threat to the numerous ports and harbors along the coast. A collaborative, multiagency initiative is underway to increase the resiliency of Pacific Northwest ports and harbors to these hazards, involving Oregon Sea Grant, Washington Sea Grant, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center, and the U.S. Geological Survey Center for Science Policy. One element of this research, planning, and outreach initiative is a natural hazard mitigation and emergency preparedness planning process that combines technical expertise with local stakeholder values and perceptions. This paper summarizes and examines one component of the process, the vulnerability assessment methodology, used in the pilot port and harbor community of Yaquina River, Oregon, as a case study of assessing vulnerability at the local level. In this community, stakeholders were most concerned with potential life loss and other nonstructural vulnerability issues, such as inadequate hazard awareness, communication, and response logistics, rather than structural issues, such as damage to specific buildings or infrastructure.

Social vulnerability from a social ecology perspective: a cohort study of older adults from the National Population Health Survey of Canada

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Numerous social factors, generally studied in isolation, have been associated with older adults’ health. Even so, older people’s social circumstances are complex and an approach which embraces this complexity is desirable. Here we investigate many social factors in relation to one another and to survival among older adults using a social ecology perspective to measure social vulnerability among older adults. Methods 2740 adults aged 65 and older were followed for ten years in the Canadian National Population Health Survey (NPHS). Twenty-three individual-level social variables were drawn from the 1994 NPHS and five Enumeration Area (EA)-level variables were abstracted from the 1996 Canadian Census using postal code linkage. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to identify dimensions of social vulnerability. All social variables were summed to create a social vulnerability index which was studied in relation to ten-year mortality. Results The PCA was limited by low variance (47%) explained by emergent factors. Seven dimensions of social vulnerability emerged in the most robust, yet limited, model: social support, engagement, living situation, self-esteem, sense of control, relations with others and contextual socio-economic status. These dimensions showed complex inter-relationships and were situated within a social ecology framework, considering spheres of influence from the individual through to group, neighbourhood and broader societal levels. Adjusting for age, sex, and frailty, increasing social vulnerability measured using the cumulative social vulnerability index was associated with increased risk of mortality over ten years in a Cox regression model (HR 1.04, 95% CI:1.01-1.07, p = 0.01). Conclusions Social vulnerability has important independent influence on older adults’ health though relationships between contributing variables are complex and do not lend themselves well to fragmentation into a small number of discrete factors. A social ecology perspective provides a candidate framework for further study of social vulnerability among older adults. PMID:25129548

A user exposure based approach for non-structural road network vulnerability analysis

PubMed Central

Jin, Lei; Wang, Haizhong; Yu, Le; Liu, Lin

2017-01-01

Aiming at the dense urban road network vulnerability without structural negative consequences, this paper proposes a novel non-structural road network vulnerability analysis framework. Three aspects of the framework are mainly described: (i) the rationality of non-structural road network vulnerability, (ii) the metrics for negative consequences accounting for variant road conditions, and (iii) the introduction of a new vulnerability index based on user exposure. Based on the proposed methodology, a case study in the Sioux Falls network which was usually threatened by regular heavy snow during wintertime is detailedly discussed. The vulnerability ranking of links of Sioux Falls network with respect to heavy snow scenario is identified. As a result of non-structural consequences accompanied by conceivable degeneration of network, there are significant increases in generalized travel time costs which are measurements for “emotionally hurt” of topological road network. PMID:29176832

Quantifying the role of climate variability on extreme total water level impacts: An application of a full simulation model to Ocean Beach, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serafin, K.; Ruggiero, P.; Stockdon, H. F.; Barnard, P.; Long, J.

2014-12-01

Many coastal communities worldwide are vulnerable to flooding and erosion driven by extreme total water levels (TWL), potentially dangerous events produced by the combination of large waves, high tides, and high non-tidal residuals. The West coast of the United States provides an especially challenging environment to model these processes due to its complex geological setting combined with uncertain forecasts for sea level rise (SLR), changes in storminess, and possible changes in the frequency of major El Niños. Our research therefore aims to develop an appropriate methodology to assess present-day and future storm-induced coastal hazards along the entire U.S. West coast, filling this information gap. We present the application of this framework in a pilot study at Ocean Beach, California, a National Park site within the Golden Gate National Recreation Area where existing event-scale coastal change data can be used for model calibration and verification. We use a probabilistic, full simulation TWL model (TWL-FSM; Serafin and Ruggiero, in press) that captures the seasonal and interannual climatic variability in extremes using functions of regional climate indices, such as the Multivariate ENSO index (MEI), to represent atmospheric patterns related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In order to characterize the effect of climate variability on TWL components, we refine the TWL-FSM by splitting non-tidal residuals into low (monthly mean sea level anomalies) and high frequency (storm surge) components. We also develop synthetic climate indices using Markov sequences to reproduce the autocorrelated nature of ENSO behavior. With the refined TWL-FSM, we simulate each TWL component, resulting in synthetic TWL records providing robust estimates of extreme return level events (e.g., the 100-yr event) and the ability to examine the relative contribution of each TWL component to these extreme events. Extreme return levels are then used to drive storm impact models to examine the probability of coastal change (Stockdon et al., 2013) and thus, the vulnerability to storm-induced coastal hazards that Ocean Beach faces. Future climate variability is easily incorporated into this framework, allowing us to quantify how an evolving climate will alter future extreme TWLs and their related coastal impacts.

Critical Aspects of the Coastal Drought Index: Length of Salinity Data Record and Ecological Response Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conrads, P. A.; Tufford, D. L.; Darby, L. S.

2015-12-01

The phenomenon of coastal drought has a different dynamic from upland droughts that are typically characterized by agricultural, hydrologic, meteorological, and(or) socio-economic impacts. Because of the uniqueness of drought impacts on coastal ecosystems, a coastal drought index (CDI) that uses existing salinity datasets for sites in South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida was developed using an approach similar to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). CDIs characterizing the 1- to 24-month salinity conditions were developed and the evaluation of the CDI indicates that the index can be used for different estuary types (for example, brackish, olioghaline, or mesohaline), for regional comparison between estuaries, and as an index for wet conditions (high freshwater inflow) in addition to drought conditions. Unlike the SPI where long-term precipitation datasets of 50 to 100 years are available for computing the index, there are a limited number of salinity data sets of greater than 10 or 15 years for computing the CDI. To evaluate the length of salinity record necessary to compute the CDI, a 29-year dataset was resampled into 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year interval datasets. Comparison of the CDI for the different periods of record show that the range of salinity conditions in the 10-, 15-, and 20-year datasets were similar and results were a close approximation to the CDI computed by using the full period of record. The CDI computed with the 5-year dataset had the largest differences with the CDI computed with the 29-year dataset but did provide useful information on coastal drought and freshwater conditions. An ongoing National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) drought early warning project in the Carolinas is developing ecological linkages to the CDI and evaluating the effectiveness of the CDI as a prediction tool for adaptation planning for future droughts. However, identifying potential coastal drought response datasets is a challenge. Coastal drought is a relatively new concept and existing datasets may not have been collected or understood as "drought response" datasets. We have considered drought response datasets including tree growth and liter fall, harmful algal blooms occurrence, Vibrio infection occurrence, shellfish harvesting data, and shark attacks.

Monitoring Drought along the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeastern Atlantic Ocean Using the Coastal Salinity Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conrads, P. A.; Rouen, L.; Lackstrom, K.; McCloskey, B.

2017-12-01

Coastal droughts have a different dynamic than upland droughts, which are typically characterized by agricultural, hydrologic, meteorological, and (or) socio-economic impacts. Drought uniquely affects coastal ecosystems due to changes in salinity conditions of estuarine creeks and rivers. The location of the freshwater-saltwater interface in surface-water bodies is an important factor in the ecological and socio-economic dynamics of coastal communities. The location of the interface determines the freshwater and saltwater aquatic communities, fisheries spawning habitat, and the freshwater availability for municipal and industrial water intakes. The severity of coastal drought may explain changes in Vibrio bacteria impacts on shellfish harvesting and occurrence of wound infection, fish kills, harmful algal blooms, hypoxia, and beach closures. To address the data and information gap for characterizing coastal drought, a coastal salinity index (CSI) was developed using salinity data. The CSI uses a computational approach similar to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The CSI is computed for unique time intervals (for example 1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month) that can characterize the onset and recovery of short- and long-term drought. Evaluation of the CSI indicates that the index can be used for different estuary types (for example: brackish, oligohaline, or mesohaline), for regional comparison between estuaries, and as an index of wet conditions (high freshwater inflow) in addition to drought (saline) conditions. In 2017, three activities in 2017 will be presented that enhance the use and application of the CSI. One, a software package was developed for the consistent computation of the CSI that includes preprocessing of salinity data, filling missing data, computing the CSI, post-processing, and generating the supporting metadata. Two, the CSI has been computed at sites along the Gulf of Mexico (Texas to Florida) and the Southeastern Atlantic Ocean (Florida to North Carolina), and three, using telemetered salinity data, the real-time computation of the CSI has been prototyped and disseminated on the web.

[Local conditions of vulnerability associated with dengue in two communities of Morelos].

PubMed

Chuc, Silvia; Hurtado-Díaz, Magali; Schilmann, Astrid; Riojas-Rodríguez, Horacio; Rangel, Hilda; González-Fernández, Mariana Irina

2013-04-01

To evaluate the vulnerability associated with the occurrence of dengue in two villages of Morelos, Mexico from 2006 to 2009. MATERIALS AND METHODS. A survey on knowledge, risk perception, prevention practices and water use was applied in two villages of Morelos. Using a principal component analysis, an index of local vulnerability to dengue (IVL) was constructed. The association of IVL with the disease at home was assessed using a Chi-square test. The IVL included five components explaining 63% of the variance and was classified in three categories: low, medium and high. There was a significant association between increased vulnerability and prevalence of reported cases of dengue in Temixco and Tlaquiltenango. The study of vulnerability to dengue allows us to identify local needs in the field of health promotion.

Spatial patterns of composition in tidal wetland plant and algal assemblages in Oregon: Implications for wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise

EPA Science Inventory

Plants and algae mediate important ecosystem processes in coastal marshes and swamps. These assemblages are structured in part by estuarine environmental gradients such as tidal elevation and salinity. Such gradients are likely to change with sea-level rise (SLR) due to global cl...

Measuring dynamics of household vulnerability in selected coastal megacities to inform transformative adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkmann, J.; Solecki, W. D.

2016-12-01

Understanding conditions and dynamics of household vulnerability and risk is key for building community resilience. Two different methodological approaches of vulnerability, risk and resilience assessment for selected global megacities are presented to address this research issue. First, an indicator-based approach was executed to compare susceptibility, coping and adaptive capacities for Lagos, Kolkata, Lagos, London, New York, and Tokyo on a neighborhood by neighborhood scale. Second, a household survey that has been conducted in Kolkata, Lagos, and New York to explore specific features of susceptibility, risk management capacities and transformations within at risk neighborhoods. The results of both methods underscore the dynamics of vulnerability. Lessons learned for disaster risk management and urban planning are derived, particularly in terms of defining priorities for a more inclusive and resilient urban development, and transformative adaptation. The findings also provide opportunity to critically review the potential outcomes of the New Urban Agenda (outcome of UN-Habitat III). The research has been undertaken within a larger international research team in the Belmont funded project Transformation of Urban Coasts.

Minimizing Surface Exposure to Climate Extremity in Coastal Megacities by Structure Remodelling using Integral Geographic Information System: Lessons from Greater Mumbai Metropolitan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, A.

2016-12-01

Coastal metropolitans in South Asia represent the most densely populated and congested urban spaces ranking among the largest urban settlements of the planet. These megacities are characterized by inadequate infrastructure, lack of mitigation tools, and weak resilience of urban ecosystems. Additionally, climate change has increased vulnerability of poor and marginalized population living in rapidly growing coastal megacities to increased frequency, severity and intensity of extreme weather events. This has adversely affected local counter strategies and adaptation tools, transforming such events into hazards with the inability to respond and mitigate. Study aimed to develop a participatory framework for risk reduction in Greater Mumbai Metropolitan by Structure Remodeling (SR) in integral GIS. Research utilized terrain analysis tools and vulnerability mapping, and identified risk susceptible fabric and checked its scope for SR without: 1.adding to its (often) complex fragmentation, and 2.without interference with the ecosystem services accommodated by it. Surfaces available included paved ground, streetscapes commercial facades, rooftops,public spaces, open as well as dark spaces. Remodeling altered certain characteristics in the intrinsic or extrinsic cross-section profile or in both (if suitable) with infrastructure measures (grey, green, blue) that collectively involved ecosystem services and maintained natural hydrological connection. This method fairly reduced exposure of vulnerable surface and minimized risk to achieve extremity-neutral state. Harmonizing with public perception and incorporating priorities of local authorities, the method is significant as it rises above the fundamental challenges arising during management of (often) conflicting perspectives and interests of multiplicity of stakeholders involved at various levels in urban climate governance while ensuring inclusive solutions with reduced vulnerability and increased resilience. Additionally this method has vast potential to replicate for climate smart planning beyond the study region as it clearly ensures barrier free climate-communication process for decision making while looking for long term feasible outcomes of remodeled surface through the most affordable and innovative tools.

Integrating Climate Change Scenarios and Co-developed Policy Scenarios to Inform Coastal Adaptation: Results from a Tillamook County, Oregon Knowledge to Action Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipiec, E.; Ruggiero, P.; Serafin, K.; Bolte, J.; Mills, A.; Corcoran, P.; Stevenson, J.; Lach, D.

2014-12-01

Local decision-makers often lack both the information and tools to reduce their community's overall vulnerability to current and future climate change impacts. Managers are restricted in their actions by the scale of the problem, inherent scientific uncertainty, limits of information exchange, and the global nature of available data, rendering place-based strategies difficult to generate. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal communities are already experiencing chronic erosion and flooding, hazards only to be exacerbated by sea level rise and changing patterns of storminess associated with climate change. To address these issues, a knowledge to action network (KTAN) consisting of local Tillamook County stakeholders and Oregon State University researchers, was formed to project future flooding and erosion impacts and determine possible adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability. Via an iterative scenario planning process, the KTAN has developed four distinct adaptation policy scenarios, including 'Status Quo', 'Hold The Line', 'ReAlign', and 'Laissez-Faire'. These policy scenarios are being integrated with a range of climate change scenarios within the modeling framework Envision, a multi-agent GIS-based tool, which allows for the combination of physical processes data, probabilistic climate change information, coastal flood and erosion models, and stakeholder driven adaptation strategies into distinct plausible future scenarios. Because exact physical and social responses to climate change are impossible to ascertain, information about the differences between possible future scenarios can provide valuable information to decision-makers and the community at large. For example, the fewest projected coastal flood and erosion impacts to buildings occur under the 'ReAlign' policy scenario (i.e., adaptation strategies that move dwellings away from the coast) under both low and high climate change scenarios, especially in comparison to the 'Status Quo' or 'Hold The Line' scenarios. Statistical analysis of the scenario-based variations in impacts to private and public resources can help guide future adaptation policy implementation and support Oregon's coastal communities for years to come.

Vulnerability and seismic damage scenarios for Barcelona (Spain) by using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lantada, N.; Pujades, L. G.; Barbat, A.

2003-04-01

An integrated GIS-based analysis (using ArcView GIS) is performed in order to estimate damage scenarios for VI, VII and VIII EMS-98 seismic intensities in Barcelona (Spain). The analysis of vulnerability and damage of individual buildings is performed according to a simplified method developed by Giovanazzi and Lagomarsino at the University of Genoa (Italy). An index of average vulnerability is associated to each building typology, which may be refined on the basis of behaviour modifiers. The index allows identification of an analytical relationship between seismic input (intensity) and damage, described by a binomial distribution. This methodology, which is based on the EMS-98 building typologies and preserves the compatibility with preceding methods, is applied to the two main residential building typologies of Barcelona, that is, unreinforced masonry and reinforced concrete buildings. Then, the specific residential buildings of Barcelona are classified in different groups characterized by a similar seismic behaviour. Therefore, all buildings belonging to each typology are cast in the most probable class according to vulnerability. In this way, the average vulnerability index is associated to each building typology of Barcelona and it is refined later on the basis of behaviour modifiers, linked to the number of stories, the year of construction and their state of maintenance. The ability of GIS tools to store, manage, analyse, and display the large amount of spatial and tabular data involved in this study allows to map average vulnerability indexes, and damage for the entire city. That is, vulnerability and damage scenarios. The obtained results show a high vulnerability and high expected seismic damage. For a VI degree of intensity, the maximum expected damage is in the range 15-30 % in the oldest zones of the city, the downtown, while for intensity VII it is in the range 45-60%. The developed GIS tool involves a friendly interface that allows new models and database information to be included in the same framework. As a new step to the seismic risk assessment, and in addition to the building characteristics, the destination of the building, as well as the essential buildings, and the density of population for census zones, have been included in the GIS database. Combining this information with the previous damage maps we will be able to obtain more complete damage scenarios including, deaths, injuries, and homeless.

Coastal terrorism: using tabletop discussions to enhance coastal community infrastructure through relationship building.

PubMed

Richter, Jane; Livet, Melanie; Stewart, Jill; Feigley, Charles E; Scott, Geoff; Richter, Donna L

2005-11-01

The unique vulnerability of the nation's ports to terrorist attacks and other major disasters requires development of specialized training approaches that integrate and connect critical stakeholders. In 2003, the University of South Carolina Center for Public Health Preparedness developed and held its first Coastal Terrorism workshop in conjunction with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Key federal, regional, state, and coastal agency leaders were invited to the 2-day event to explore, in a no-risk environment, the crucial role that public health agencies would play in a covert biological agent incident aboard a cruise ship. The incident began as a possible outbreak of a Norwalk-like viral agent; however, as the scenario unfolded, evidence of a terrorist plot emerged. This immediately shifted the scenario from a public health-dominated incident to one directed by law enforcement. Communication and coordination issues surfaced illustrating potential conflicts between disciplines and jurisdictions in terms of roles and responsibilities of responding agencies. The goals of the workshop were to facilitate communication and interagency networking among coastal stakeholders while assessing their training and research needs and increasing their familiarity with resources and protocols regarding a bioterrorist coastal event. Positive systems changes were observed.

Geologic effects and coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise, erosion, and storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, S.J.; Gutierrez, B.T.; Thieler, E.R.; Pendleton, E.

2008-01-01

A combination of natural and human factors are driving coastal change and making coastal regions and populations increasingly vulnerable. Sea level, a major agent of coastal erosion, has varied greatly from -120 m below present during glacial period low-stands to + 4 to 6 m above present during interglacial warm periods. Geologic and tide gauge data show that global sea level has risen about 12 to 15 cm during the past century with satellite measurements indicating an acceleration since the early 1990s due to thermal expansion and ice-sheet melting. Land subsidence due to tectonic forces and sediment compaction in regions like the mid-Atlantic and Louisiana increase the rate of relative sea-level rise to 40 cm to 100 cm per century. Sea- level rise is predicted to accelerate significantly in the near future due to climate change, resulting in pervasive impacts to coastal regions and putting populations increasingly at risk. The full implications of climate change for coastal systems need to be understood better and long-term plans are needed to manage coasts in order to protect natural resources and mitigate the effects of sea-level rise and increased storms on human infrastructure. 

Scanning the conservation horizon: A guide to climate change vulnerability assessment

Treesearch

Patty Glick; Bruce A. Stein; Naomi A. Edelson

2011-01-01

Rapid climate change is the defining conservation issue of our generation. The effects of climate change are increasingly apparent, from drowned coastal marshes and drying prairie potholes to melting glaciers. These climate-driven changes will profoundly affect our ability to conserve fish and wildlife and the habitats on which they depend. Indeed, preparing for and...

History of sex trafficking, recent experiences of violence, and HIV vulnerability among female sex workers in coastal Andhra Pradesh, India

PubMed Central

Gupta, Jhumka; Reed, Elizabeth; Kershaw, Trace; Blankenship, Kim M.

2011-01-01

Synopsis Findings from female sex workers in southern India indicate that women who enter sex work via trafficking are exposed to unique HIV vulnerabilities. Objectives To estimate the prevalence of sex trafficking as a mode of entry into sex work, and to examine associations between sex trafficking and recent violence experiences and HIV vulnerability among female sex workers (FSWs). Methods In a cross-sectional study in 2006 in coastal Andhra Pradesh, India, 812 FSWs were recruited via respondent-driven sampling to take part in an oral survey of their experiences in sex work. Results One in 5 (19.3%) FSWs met the UN definition of sex trafficking. Women trafficked into sex work were more likely than other FSWs to report recent violence experiences (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.32–2.81), more clients per week (AOR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.11–2.41), and more days of sex work per week (AOR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.18–2.63), and were less likely to report use of FSW-focused services (AOR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.42–0.86). No significant differences emerged regarding HIV knowledge or consistent condom use. Conclusion There was a high prevalence of sex trafficking. A history of sex trafficking was associated with a greater vulnerability to recent violence and HIV risk behaviors, underscoring the need for increased attention to the public health needs of trafficked populations. PMID:21620402

[Assessment of ecological environment effects of coastal development in Hebei Province, China].

PubMed

Cui, Li-Tuo; Li, Zhi-Wei

2014-07-01

Through the analysis of the development activities and the ecological environment in coastal of Hebei Province, China, an index system for evaluating the ecological environment effect, composed of 28 indices, was set up by the pressure, state and response subsystems. Using the comprehensive index evaluation method, the integrated effects of ecological environment index (EI) was calculated and its grading criterion was founded. The results showed that the ecological environment effect of Hebei Province coastal development varied from being relatively small, normal and then relatively large from 1984 to 2010, and its acceptance degree evolved from being acceptable to being unacceptable. Because the resource and environment pressures caused by coastal development were serious and a delay existed in the state relative to the response, the improvement of various measures in the response subsystem did not show a positive effect on the state, and the environmental quality of ocean showed a degrading trend. Due to the differences in coastal development pattern and strength, the ecological environment effect of development activities showed some spatial differences. The ecological environment effect of Qinhuangdao coastal development was the minimum, followed by Cangzhou and Tangshan. Cangzhou and Tangshan had reached unacceptable levels and needed to further strengthen the restoration and protection of ecological environment.

A geomorphological approach to sustainable planning and management of the coastal zone of Kuwait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Bakri, Dhia

1996-10-01

The coastal zone in Kuwait has been under a considerable pressure from conflicting land uses since the early 1960s, as well as from the destruction and oil pollution caused by the Gulf War. To avoid further damage and to protect the coastal heritage it is essential to adopt an environmentally sustainable management process. This paper shows how the study of coastal geomorphology can provide a sound basis for sustainable planning and management. Based on coastal landforms, sediments and processes, the coastline of Kuwait was divided into nine geomorphic zones. These zones were grouped into two main geomorphic provinces. The northern province is marked by extensive muddy intertidal flats and dominated by a depositional and low-energy environment. The southern geomorphic province is characterised by relatively steep beach profiles, rocky/sandy tidal flats and a moderate to high-energy environment. The study has demonstrated that pollution, benthic ecology and other environmental conditions of the coast are a function of coastline geomorphology, sedimentology and related processes. The geomorphological information was used to determine the coastal vulnerability and to assess the environmental impacts of development projects and other human activities. Several strategies were outlined to integrate the geomorphic approach into the management of the coastal resources.

Storm surge evolution and its relationship to climate oscillations at Duck, NC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munroe, Robert; Curtis, Scott

2017-07-01

Coastal communities experience increased vulnerability during storm surge events through the risk of damage to coastal infrastructure, erosion/deposition, and the endangerment of human life. Policy and planning measures attempt to avoid or mitigate storm surge consequences through building codes and setbacks, beach stabilization, insurance rates, and coastal zoning. The coastal emergency management community and public react and respond on shorter time scales, through temporary protection, emergency stockpiling, and evacuation. This study utilizes time series analysis, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, Pearson's correlation, and the generalized extreme value (GEV) theorem to make the connection between climate oscillation indices and storm surge characteristics intra-seasonally to inter-annually. Results indicate that an El Niño (+ENSO), negative phase of the NAO, and positive phase of the PNA pattern all support longer duration and hence more powerful surge events, especially in winter. Increased surge duration increases the likelihood of extensive erosion, inland inundation, among other undesirable effects of the surge hazard.

Development and Analysis of Global, High-Resolution Diagnostic Metrics for Vegetation Monitoring, Yield Estimation and Famine Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, B. T.; Zhang, P.; Myneni, R.

2008-12-01

Drought, through its impact on food scarcity and crop prices, can have significant economic, social, and environmental impacts - presently, up to 36 countries and 73 million people are facing food crises around the globe. Because of these adverse affects, there has been a drive to develop drought and vegetation- monitoring metrics that can quantify and predict human vulnerability/susceptibility to drought at high- resolution spatial scales over the entire globe. Here we introduce a new vegetation-monitoring index utilizing data derived from satellite-based instruments (the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer - MODIS) designed to identify the vulnerability of vegetation in a particular region to climate variability during the growing season. In addition, the index can quantify the percentage of annual grid-point vegetation production either gained or lost due to climatic variability in a given month. When integrated over the growing season, this index is shown to be better correlated with end-of-season crop yields than traditional remotely-sensed or meteorological indices. In addition, in-season estimates of the index, which are available in near real-time, provide yield forecasts comparable to concurrent in situ objective yield surveys, which are only available in limited regions of the world. Overall, the cost effectiveness and repetitive, near-global view of earth's surface provided by this satellite-based vegetation monitoring index can potentially improve our ability to mitigate human vulnerability/susceptibility to drought and its impacts upon vegetation and agriculture.

Tsunami Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk assessment for the coast of Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, Mauricio; Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; MArtínez, Jara; Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Fernandez, Felipe; Medina, Raúl; Al-Yahyai, Sultan

2016-04-01

Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, and causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructures around the world. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of new methodologies in this field. This work presents the methodology that has been followed for developing the tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment for the coast of Oman, including maps containing the results of the process. Oman is located in the south eastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula and of the Arabian plate, in front of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), which is the major source of earthquakes in the eastern border of the Arabian plate and Oman (Al-Shaqsi, 2012). There are at least three historical tsunamis assigned to seismic origin in the MSZ (Heidarzadeh et al., 2008; Jordan, 2008). These events show the high potential for tsunami generation of the MSZ, being one of the most tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean. For the tsunami hazard assessment, worst potential cases have been selected, as well as the historical case of 1945, when an 8.1 earthquake generated a tsunami affecting the coast of Oman, and prompting 4000 casualties in the countries of the area. These scenarios have been computationally simulated in order to get tsunami hazard maps, including flooding maps. These calculations have been carried out at national and local scale, in 9 municipalities all along the coast of Oman, including the cities of Sohar, Wudam, Sawadi, Muscat, Quriyat, Sur, Masirah, Al Duqm, and Salalah. Using the hazard assessment as input, this work presents as well an integrated framework for the tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment carried out in the Sultanate of Oman. This framework considers different dimensions (human, structural) and it is developed at two different spatial resolutions, national and local scale. The national vulnerability assessment is carried out for the entire Oman coastal area comprising 30 coastal wilayats, whereas the local sensitivity assessment is performed for the 9 coastal study areas. This work also connects vulnerability-risk assessment results to site-specific and target-oriented risk reduction measures. Results identify high risk areas along the coast of Oman in which measures for risk reduction are proposed. The identification and prioritization of mitigation measures were supported by a panel of local and international experts developed during a Risk Assessment Workshop held in Oman and a handbook containing the mitigation measures at national and local scales was developed and delivered to the stakeholders. We would like to thank the Ministry of Transport and Communications of the Government of the Sultanate of Oman (MOTC), Directorate General of Meteorology and Air Navigation (DGMAN), Public Authority for Civil Aviation (PACA), for supporting and funding this project and the collaboration of the IOC-UNESCO personnel. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe).

Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, Matthew L.; Temmerman, Stijn; Skeehan, Emily E.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2016-01-01

Coastal marshes are considered to be among the most valuable and vulnerable ecosystems on Earth, where the imminent loss of ecosystem services is a feared consequence of sea level rise. However, we show with a meta-analysis that global measurements of marsh elevation change indicate that marshes are generally building at rates similar to or exceeding historical sea level rise, and that process-based models predict survival under a wide range of future sea level scenarios. We argue that marsh vulnerability tends to be overstated because assessment methods often fail to consider biophysical feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, and the potential for marshes to migrate inland.

Bank Erosion Vulnerability Zonation (BEVZ) -A Proposed Method of Preparing Bank Erosion Zonation and Its Application on the River Haora, Tripura, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandyopadhyay, Shreya; de, Sunil Kumar

2014-05-01

In the present paper an attempt has been made to propose RS-GIS based method for erosion vulnerability zonation for the entire river based on simple techniques that requires very less field investigation. This method consist of 8 parameters, such as, rainfall erosivity, lithological factor, bank slope, meander index, river gradient, soil erosivity, vegetation cover and anthropogenic impact. Meteorological data, GSI maps, LISS III (30m resolution), SRTM DEM (56m resolution) and Google Images have been used to determine rainfall erosivity, lithological factor, bank slope, meander index, river gradient, vegetation cover and anthropogenic impact; Soil map of the NBSSLP, India has been used for assessing Soil Erosivity index. By integrating the individual values of those six parameters (the 1st two parameters are remained constant for this particular study area) a bank erosion vulnerability zonation map of the River Haora, Tripura, India (23°37' - 23°53'N and 91°15'-91°37'E) has been prepared. The values have been compared with the existing BEHI-NBS method of 60 spots and also with field data of 30 cross sections (covering the 60 spots) taken along 51 km stretch of the river in Indian Territory and found that the estimated values are matching with the existing method as well as with field data. The whole stretch has been divided into 5 hazard zones, i.e. Very High, High, Moderate, Low and Very Low Hazard Zones and they are covering 5.66 km, 16.81 km, 40.82km, 29.67 km and 9.04 km respectively. KEY WORDS: Bank erosion, Bank Erosion Hazard Index (BEHI), Near Bank Stress (NBS), Erosivity, Bank Erosion Vulnerability Zonation.

Assessing the social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda.

PubMed

Bizimana, Jean-Pierre; Twarabamenye, Emmanuel; Kienberger, Stefan

2015-01-07

Since 2004, malaria interventions in Rwanda have resulted in substantial decline of malaria incidence. However, this achievement is fragile as potentials for local malaria transmissions remain. The risk of getting malaria infection is partially explained by social conditions of vulnerable populations. Since vulnerability to malaria is both influenced by social and environmental factors, its complexity cannot be measured by a single value. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to apply a composite indicator approach for assessing social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda. This assessment informs the decision-makers in targeting malaria interventions and allocating limited resources to reduce malaria burden in Rwanda. A literature review was used to conceptualize the social vulnerability to malaria and to select the appropriate vulnerability indicators. Indicators used in the index creation were classified into susceptibility and lack of resilience vulnerability domains. The main steps followed include selection of indicators and datasets, imputation of missing values, descriptive statistics, normalization and weighting of indicators, local sensitivity analysis and indicators aggregation. Correlation analysis helped to empirically evidence the association between the indicators and malaria incidence. The high values of social vulnerability to malaria are found in Gicumbi, Rusizi, Nyaruguru and Gisagara, and low values in Muhanga, Nyarugenge, Kicukiro and Nyanza. The most influential susceptibility indicators to increase malaria are population change (r = 0.729), average number of persons per bedroom (r = 0.531), number of households affected by droughts and famines (r = 0.591), and area used for irrigation (r = 0.611). The bed net ownership (r = -0.398) and poor housing wall materials (0.378) are the lack of resilience indicators that significantly correlate with malaria incidence. The developed composite index social vulnerability to malaria indicates which indicators need to be addressed and in which districts. The results from this study are salient for public health policy- and decision makers in malaria control in Rwanda and timely support the national integrated malaria initiative. Future research development should focus on spatial explicit vulnerability assessment by combining environmental and social drivers to achieve an integrated and complete assessment of vulnerability to malaria.

Localized rapid warming of West Antarctic subsurface waters by remote winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, Paul; Holmes, Ryan M.; Hogg, Andrew Mcc.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Stewart, Kial D.; England, Matthew H.

2017-08-01

The highest rates of Antarctic glacial ice mass loss are occurring to the west of the Antarctica Peninsula in regions where warming of subsurface continental shelf waters is also largest. However, the physical mechanisms responsible for this warming remain unknown. Here we show how localized changes in coastal winds off East Antarctica can produce significant subsurface temperature anomalies (>2 °C) around much of the continent. We demonstrate how coastal-trapped barotropic Kelvin waves communicate the wind disturbance around the Antarctic coastline. The warming is focused on the western flank of the Antarctic Peninsula because the circulation induced by the coastal-trapped waves is intensified by the steep continental slope there, and because of the presence of pre-existing warm subsurface water offshore. The adjustment to the coastal-trapped waves shoals the subsurface isotherms and brings warm deep water upwards onto the continental shelf and closer to the coast. This result demonstrates the vulnerability of the West Antarctic region to a changing climate.

Vulnerability of intertropical littoral areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manighetti, Isabelle; De Wit, Rutger; Duvail, Stéphanie; Seyler, Patrick

2017-10-01

The coastal zone is of very high importance for human development and human wellbeing. Half of the global urban population lives in the coastal zone, where it has access to both continental and marine ecosystem services and to maritime transport. These urban populations coexist with rural and traditional coastal populations, some of which still possess good traditional ecological knowledge of the coastal ecosystems. Marine biodiversity and favourable environmental conditions sustain fisheries and aquaculture, represent a source of inspiration for humankind and provide numerous opportunities for recreation and tourism. In addition, coastal areas provide nursery functions for juvenile fish and invertebrates, which is important for the fish and crayfish stocks exploited offshore. Located at the interface between marine energy and continental processes, the coastal landscapes are dynamic environments. Nevertheless, the destruction of habitats and the increasing exploitation of the coastal zone represent serious threats to the ecosystems. Moreover, human land use and modifications in the watersheds have strong impacts on the coastal zone primarily by contributing to their pollution and nutrient over-enrichment. Damming and creation of reservoirs upstream also heavily modify the hydrology of the watersheds and often dramatically reduce the delivery of sediments to the coastal zone. In addition to these regional and local anthropogenic impacts, the coastal zone is vulnerable to global change among which sea level rise and climate change are particularly important drivers. Many coastal zones extend along giant faults and subduction zones, which makes them particularly exposed to earthquakes and tsunami hazards. Other forms of natural hazards are caused by hurricanes and cyclones that develop at sea and whose trajectories often hit the coastlines.

Vulnerability of Coastal Crop Land to Climate Change in the Northern Part of Bay of Bengal: Issues, Challenges and Future Prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamal, A. H. M.

2015-12-01

The coastal communities of northeastern part of Bay of Bengal are used to live and survive through facing different types of natural disasters since primitive time. Among the natural disasters, salinity intrusion due to climate change and sea level rise in the coastal agriculture land is the major unpleasant incident now days. Because of that wide area of the coastal agricultural land, coastal forest, drinking water facilities and fresh water availability are in critical condition which may cause 40 million people of 147 coastal districts covering 47201 km area are placed in danger. The nation wide assessment on the detected of coastal soil and water salinity is not conducted since 9 years. The survey on the coastal soil salinity on 1973 and 2000 found that the saline effected land is increased from 0.83 million ha to 1.20 million ha within 27 years. It is assumed that at present the rate of salinity intrusion in the coastal agriculture land will be higher than those of 1973 and 2000. The soil salinity was recorded 18-20 psu after AILA in the south-eastern coast of Bangladesh and increased further 2-4 psu due to low precipitation which causes crop burning. This paper aims to know the salinity intrusion in the coastal soil and water of Bangladesh, which would help to plan and improvement of the sustainable agriculture production. Study revealed that to face any extra stresses on the coastal agriculture land due to climate change requires extensive inventory, awareness activities, mitigation measures, adaptation techniques and extension of indigenous technology.

Tsunami hazard, vulnerability and impact assessment of the coastal area of Rabat, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesne, Olivia; Mangin, Antoine; Renou, Camille; Rouffi, Frédéric; Atillah, Abderrahman; Moudni, Hicham

2010-05-01

Among African countries, Morocco is probably one of the most exposed to tsunami hazard. Indeed, Morocco is integrated in the particular geodynamic context of the northern African margin characterized by the existence of the Azores-Gibraltar fault separating two active tectonic plates: the African and the Eurasian plates. This area generated and still generates many large earthquakes exceeding a magnitude of 6. The Moroccan Atlantic coasts are thus exposed to tsunamigenic earthquakes occurring offshore. Tsunamis generated in this area are not frequent but can be really disastrous and could have a huge impact. In the framework of the SCHEMA project, a 3 year European project, we studied the consequences on the Moroccan coastal area of two potential tsunami scenarios, applying the generic methodology developed during the project for building tsunami vulnerability and impact maps. The study focuses on the "Rabat Zaïr" region. Centred on the Bouregreg Valley, this study area encompasses three main coastal and densely populated towns of Morocco: Rabat (capital), Salé and Temara. Using a combination of numerical modelling, field surveys, earth observation and GIS data, the risk has been evaluated for this highly vulnerable area (flat topography, small beaches with many tourists in summer, presence of several bridges on the Bouregreg river separating Rabat and Salé, presence of a dam upstream the 2 cities, and development of a new residential and touristic complex on the coastline and in the vicinity of the estuary). Two scenarios of tsunami have been studied to estimate the hazard on the coastal zone of Rabat: a worst case scenario based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 as well as a moderate scenario based on the historical Portugal earthquake of 1969. For each scenario, numerical models allowed to produce inundation maps consisting of inundation limits as well as maximum water heights. Land use data together with earth observation data interpretation allowed then to generate a building classification. Finally potential damages are derived using damage functions developed during the project by Geosciences Consultants (GSC), by crossing information from hazard maps (maximum water elevations) with building vulnerability maps. The damage maps will then serve as a base for elaborating evacuation plans with appropriate rescue and relief processes useful for decision makers, local authorities and investors.

CRABS IN CRISIS:BIOGEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS, ABUNDANCES, AND VULNERABILITIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE OF BRACHYURAN AND LITHODID CRABS FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE BEAUFORT SEA

EPA Science Inventory

To predict the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to climate change we analyzed the biogeographic and abundance patterns of the brachyuran or ‘True’ crabs (n=368) and lithodid or ‘King’ crabs (n=20) that are found in the twelve MEOW (“Mar...

BIOGEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS, ABUNDANCES, AND VULNERABILITIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE OF BRACHYURAN AND LITHODID CRABS FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE BEAUFORT SEA - 9-19-2014

EPA Science Inventory

As part of an EPA/USGS project to predict the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to climate change we analyzed the biogeographic and abundance patterns of the brachyuran or ‘True’ crabs (n=368) and lithodid or ‘King’ crabs (n=20) that are found...

BIOGEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS, ABUNDANCES, AND VULNERABILITIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE OF BRACHYURAN AND LITHODID CRABS FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE BEAUFORT SEA

EPA Science Inventory

As part of an EPA/USGS project to predict the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to climate change we analyzed the biogeographic and abundance patterns of the brachyuran or ‘True’ crabs (n=368) and lithodid or ‘King’ crabs (n=20) that are found...

Floristic Quality Index: An assessment tool for restoration projects and monitoring sites in coastal Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cretini, K.F.; Steyer, G.D.

2011-01-01

The Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) program was established to assess the effectiveness of individual coastal restoration projects and the cumulative effects of multiple projects at regional and coastwide scales. In order to make these assessments, analytical teams have been assembled for each of the primary data types sampled under the CRMS program, including vegetation, hydrology, landscape, and soils. These teams consist of scientists and support staff from the U.S. Geological Survey and other Federal agencies, the Louisiana Office of Coastal Protection and Restoration, and university academics. Each team is responsible for developing or identifying parameters, indices, or tools that can be used to assess coastal wetlands at various scales. The CRMS Vegetation Analytical Team has developed a Floristic Quality Index for coastal Louisiana to determine the quality of a wetland based on its plant species composition and abundance.

Prediction of Floor Water Inrush: The Application of GIS-Based AHP Vulnerable Index Method to Donghuantuo Coal Mine, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qiang; Liu, Yuanzhang; Liu, Donghai; Zhou, Wanfang

2011-09-01

Floor water inrush represents a geohazard that can pose significant threat to safe operations for instance in coal mines in China and elsewhere. Its occurrence is controlled by many factors, and the processes are often not amenable to mathematical expressions. To evaluate the water inrush risk, the paper proposes the vulnerability index approach by coupling the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and geographic information system (GIS). The detailed procedures of using this innovative approach are shown in a case study in China (Donghuantuo Coal Mine). The powerful spatial data analysis functions of GIS was used to establish the thematic layer of each of the six factors that control the water inrush, and the contribution weights of each factor was determined with the AHP method. The established AHP evaluation model was used to determine the threshold value for each risk level with a histogram of the water inrush vulnerability index. As a result, the mine area was divided into five regions with different vulnerability levels which served as general guidelines for the mine operations. The prediction results were further corroborated with the actual mining data, and the evaluation result is satisfactory.

Multiscale habitat suitability index models for priority landbirds in the Central Hardwoods and West Gulf Coastal Plain/Ouachitas Bird Conservation Regions

Treesearch

John M. Tirpak; D. Todd Jones-Farrand; Frank R., III Thompson; Daniel J. Twedt; William B., III Uihlein

2009-01-01

Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models were developed to assess habitat quality for 40 priority bird species in the Central Hardwoods and West Gulf Coastal Plain/Ouachitas Bird Conservation Regions. The models incorporated both site and landscape environmental variables from one of six nationally consistent datasets. Potential habitat was first defined from unique...

Assessment of Coastal Ecosystem Services for Conservation Strategies in South Korea

PubMed Central

Chung, Min Gon; Kang, Hojeong; Choi, Sung-Uk

2015-01-01

Despite the fact that scientific and political consideration for ecosystem services has dramatically increased over the past decade, few studies have focused on marine and coastal ecosystem services for conservation strategies. We used an ecosystem services approach to assess spatial distributions of habitat risks and four ecosystem services (coastal protection, carbon storage, recreation, and aesthetic quality), and explored the tradeoffs among them in coastal areas of South Korea. Additionally, we analyzed how the social and ecological characteristics in coastal areas interact with conservation and development policies by using this approach. We found strong negative associations between the habitat risks and ecosystem services (aquaculture, carbon storage, recreation, and aesthetic quality) across the coastal counties. Our results showed that the intensity of the habitat risks and the provision of ecosystem services were significantly different between reclamation-dominated and conservation-dominated counties, except for coastal vulnerability. A generalized linear model suggested that reclamation projects were dependent on economic efficiency, whereas demographic pressures and habitat conditions influenced the designation of protected areas at a county level. The ecosystem services approach provided guidelines to achieve both sustainable development and environment conservation. By using the approach, we can select the priority areas for developments while we can minimize the degradation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. As cultural ecosystem services are evenly distributed throughout coastal areas of South Korea, decision makers may employ them to improve the conditions of coastal wetlands outside of protected areas. PMID:26221950

The Heat Exposure Integrated Deprivation Index (HEIDI): A data-driven approach to quantifying neighborhood risk during extreme hot weather.

PubMed

Krstic, Nikolas; Yuchi, Weiran; Ho, Hung Chak; Walker, Blake B; Knudby, Anders J; Henderson, Sarah B

2017-12-01

Mortality attributable to extreme hot weather is a growing concern in many urban environments, and spatial heat vulnerability indexes are often used to identify areas at relatively higher and lower risk. Three indexes were developed for greater Vancouver, Canada using a pool of 20 potentially predictive variables categorized to reflect social vulnerability, population density, temperature exposure, and urban form. One variable was chosen from each category: an existing deprivation index, senior population density, apparent temperature, and road density, respectively. The three indexes were constructed from these variables using (1) unweighted, (2) weighted, and (3) data-driven Heat Exposure Integrated Deprivation Index (HEIDI) approaches. The performance of each index was assessed using mortality data from 1998-2014, and the maps were compared with respect to spatial patterns identified. The population-weighted spatial correlation between the three indexes ranged from 0.68-0.89. The HEIDI approach produced a graduated map of vulnerability, whereas the other approaches primarily identified areas of highest risk. All indexes performed best under extreme temperatures, but HEIDI was more useful at lower thresholds. Each of the indexes in isolation provides valuable information for public health protection, but combining the HEIDI approach with unweighted and weighted methods provides richer information about areas most vulnerable to heat. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Reducing Vulnerability of Ports and Harbors to Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.; Goodwin, Robert F.

2002-01-01

Recent scientific research suggests the Pacific Northwest could experience catastrophic earthquakes in the near future, both from distant and local sources, posing a significant threat to coastal communities. Damage could result from numerous earthquake-related hazards, such as severe ground shaking, soil liquefaction, landslides, land subsidence/uplift, and tsunami inundation. Because of their geographic location, ports and harbors are especially vulnerable to these hazards. Ports and harbors, however, are important components of many coastal communities, supporting numerous activities critical to the local and regional economy and possibly serving as vital post-event, response-recovery transportation links. A collaborative, multi-year initiative is underway to increase the resiliency of Pacific Northwest ports and harbors to earthquake and tsunami hazards, involving Oregon Sea Grant (OSG), Washington Sea Grant (WSG), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center (CSC), and the U.S. Geological Survey Center for Science Policy (CSP). Specific products of this research, planning, and outreach initiative include a regional stakeholder issues and needs assessment, a community-based mitigation planning process, a Geographic Information System (GIS) — based vulnerability assessment methodology, an educational web-site and a regional data archive. This paper summarizes these efforts, including results of two pilot port-harbor community projects, one in Yaquina Bay, Oregon and the other in Sinclair Inlet, Washington. Finally, plans are outlined for outreach to other port and harbor communities in the Pacific Northwest and beyond, using "getting started" workshops and a web-based tutorial.

Groundwater vulnerability indices conditioned by Supervised Intelligence Committee Machine (SICM).

PubMed

Nadiri, Ata Allah; Gharekhani, Maryam; Khatibi, Rahman; Sadeghfam, Sina; Moghaddam, Asghar Asghari

2017-01-01

This research presents a Supervised Intelligent Committee Machine (SICM) model to assess groundwater vulnerability indices of an aquifer. SICM uses Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to overarch three Artificial Intelligence (AI) models: Support Vector Machine (SVM), Neuro-Fuzzy (NF) and Gene Expression Programming (GEP). Each model uses the DRASTIC index, the acronym of 7 geological, hydrological and hydrogeological parameters, which collectively represents intrinsic (or natural) vulnerability and gives a sense of contaminants, such as nitrate-N, penetrating aquifers from the surface. These models are trained to modify or condition their DRASTIC index values by measured nitrate-N concentration. The three AI-techniques often perform similarly but have differences as well and therefore SICM exploits the situation to improve the modeled values by producing a hybrid modeling results through selecting better performing SVM, NF and GEP components. The models of the study area at Ardabil aquifer show that the vulnerability indices by the DRASTIC framework produces sharp fronts but AI models smoothen the fronts and reflect a better correlation with observed nitrate values; SICM improves on the performances of three AI models and cope well with heterogeneity and uncertain parameters. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Resilience from coastal protection.

PubMed

Ewing, Lesley C

2015-10-28

Coastal areas are important residential, commercial and industrial areas; but coastal hazards can pose significant threats to these areas. Shoreline/coastal protection elements, both built structures such as breakwaters, seawalls and revetments, as well as natural features such as beaches, reefs and wetlands, are regular features of a coastal community and are important for community safety and development. These protection structures provide a range of resilience to coastal communities. During and after disasters, they help to minimize damages and support recovery; during non-disaster times, the values from shoreline elements shift from the narrow focus on protection. Most coastal communities have limited land and resources and few can dedicate scarce resources solely for protection. Values from shore protection can and should expand to include environmental, economic and social/cultural values. This paper discusses the key aspects of shoreline protection that influence effective community resilience and protection from disasters. This paper also presents ways that the economic, environmental and social/cultural values of shore protection can be evaluated and quantified. It presents the Coastal Community Hazard Protection Resilience (CCHPR) Index for evaluating the resilience capacity to coastal communities from various protection schemes and demonstrates the use of this Index for an urban beach in San Francisco, CA, USA. © 2015 The Author(s).

Assessment of Coastal Ecosystem Services for Conservation Strategies in South Korea.

PubMed

Chung, Min Gon; Kang, Hojeong; Choi, Sung-Uk

2015-01-01

Despite the fact that scientific and political consideration for ecosystem services has dramatically increased over the past decade, few studies have focused on marine and coastal ecosystem services for conservation strategies. We used an ecosystem services approach to assess spatial distributions of habitat risks and four ecosystem services (coastal protection, carbon storage, recreation, and aesthetic quality), and explored the tradeoffs among them in coastal areas of South Korea. Additionally, we analyzed how the social and ecological characteristics in coastal areas interact with conservation and development policies by using this approach. We found strong negative associations between the habitat risks and ecosystem services (aquaculture, carbon storage, recreation, and aesthetic quality) across the coastal counties. Our results showed that the intensity of the habitat risks and the provision of ecosystem services were significantly different between reclamation-dominated and conservation-dominated counties, except for coastal vulnerability. A generalized linear model suggested that reclamation projects were dependent on economic efficiency, whereas demographic pressures and habitat conditions influenced the designation of protected areas at a county level. The ecosystem services approach provided guidelines to achieve both sustainable development and environment conservation. By using the approach, we can select the priority areas for developments while we can minimize the degradation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. As cultural ecosystem services are evenly distributed throughout coastal areas of South Korea, decision makers may employ them to improve the conditions of coastal wetlands outside of protected areas.

Using science to strengthen our Nation's resilience to tomorrow's challenges: understanding and preparing for coastal impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simmons, Dale L.; Andersen, Matthew E.; Dean, Teresa A.; Focazio, Michael J.; Fulton, John W.; Haines, John W.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.; Tihansky, Ann B.; Young, John A.

2014-01-01

Hurricane Sandy caused unprecedented damage across some of the most densely populated coastal areas of the northeastern United States. The costly, landscape-altering destruction left in the wake of this storm is a stark reminder of our Nation’s need to become more resilient as we inevitably face future coastal hazards. As our Nation recovers from this devastating natural disaster, it is clear that accurate scientific information is essential as we seek to identify and develop strategies to address trends in coastal landscape change and reduce our future vulnerability to major storm events. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received $43.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to conduct the scientific research needed to guide response, recovery, and rebuilding activities and to develop effective strategies for protecting coastal communities and resources in the future. This fact sheet describes how the USGS is combining interdisciplinary science with state-of-the-art technologies to achieve a comprehensive understanding of coastal change caused by Hurricane Sandy. By assessing coastal change impacts through research and by developing tools that enhance our science capabilities, support coastal stakeholders, and facilitate effective decision making, we continue to build a greater understanding of the processes at work across our Nation’s complex coastal environment—from wetlands, estuaries, barrier islands, and nearshore marine areas to infrastructure and human communities. This improved understanding will increase our resilience as we prepare for future short-term, extreme events as well as long-term coastal change.

Tsunami Impact in Morocco due to Most Credible Tsunami Scenarios in the Gulf of Cadiz.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M.; Toto, E. A.

2009-04-01

In the Gulf of Cadiz, the tsunami risk should be considered major due to the peculiar geological context close to the Nubia-Eurasia plate boundary and also to the high vulnerability of the coastlines in the region. The extensive occupation of coastal areas in the surrounding countries - Portugal, Spain and Morocco, the enormous influxes of tourists during high season and the large economic value of harbors and other coastal facilities increase considerably the vulnerability to tsunami impact. In order to establish the Most Credible Tsunami Scenarios we used the earthquake scenarios in the Gulf of Cadiz area. Each scenario has an associated typical fault/or faults and a set of fault parameters that are used as input to compute the sea bottom deformation using Okada's equations. Tsunami propagation uses COMCOT-LX, modified version of the COMCOT Cornnell University code. Maximum wave height (MWH) and tsunami energy direction are computed, for each tsunamigenic scenario for the north Atlantic coast of Morocco. Finally we selected the harbor of Casablanca for the production of inundation maps for Casablanca This research was funded by NEAREST and TRANSFER, 6FP-European Union.

Optimal house elevation for reducing flood-related losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xian, Siyuan; Lin, Ning; Kunreuther, Howard

2017-05-01

FEMA recommends that houses in coastal flood zones be elevated to at least 1 foot above the base flood elevation (BFE). However, this guideline is not specific and ignores characteristics of houses that affect their vulnerability. An economically optimal elevation level (OEL) is proposed that minimizes the combined cost of elevation and cumulative insurance premiums over the lifespan of the house. As an illustration, analysis is performed for various coastal houses in Ortley Beach, NJ. Compared with the strategy of raising houses to 1 foot above BFE, the strategy of raising houses to their OELs is much more economical for the homeowners. Elevating to the OELs also significantly reduces government spending on subsidizing low-income homeowners through, for example, a voucher program, to mitigate flood risk. These results suggest that policy makers should consider vulnerability factors in developing risk-reduction strategies. FEMA may recommend OELs to homeowners based on their flood hazards as well as house characteristics or at least providing more information and tools to homeowners to assist them in making more economical decisions. The OEL strategy can also be coupled with a voucher program to make the program more cost-effective.

Tsunami hazard and risk assessment in El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, M.; González-Riancho, P.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; García-Aguilar, O.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Aguirre, I.; Alvarez, J. A.; Gavidia, F.; Jaimes, I.; Larreynaga, J. A.

2012-04-01

Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructure around the world. Several works have attempted to study these phenomena in order to understand their origin, causes, evolution, consequences, and magnitude of their damages, to finally propose mechanisms to protect coastal societies. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce risk on coastal areas. This work -Tsunami Hazard and Risk Assessment in El Salvador-, funded by AECID during the period 2009-12, examines the state of the art and presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing the risk of tsunamis at any coastal area worldwide and applying it to the coast of El Salvador. The conceptual framework is based on the definition of Risk as the probability of harmful consequences or expected losses resulting from a given hazard to a given element at danger or peril, over a specified time period (European Commission, Schneiderbauer et al., 2004). The HAZARD assessment (Phase I of the project) is based on propagation models for earthquake-generated tsunamis, developed through the characterization of tsunamigenic sources -sismotectonic faults- and other dynamics under study -tsunami waves, sea level, etc.-. The study area is located in a high seismic activity area and has been hit by 11 tsunamis between 1859 and 1997, nine of them recorded in the twentieth century and all generated by earthquakes. Simulations of historical and potential tsunamis with greater or lesser affection to the country's coast have been performed, including distant sources, intermediate and close. Deterministic analyses of the threats under study -coastal flooding- have been carried out, resulting in different hazard maps (maximum wave height elevation, maximum water depth, minimum tsunami arrival time, maximum flooding level or "Run-up", hazard degree for people based on incipient velocity for people instability) along the coast of El Salvador and at some relevant locations (high resolution analysis). The VULNERABILITY assessment of the exposed elements (Phase II of the project) is based on an integrated approach which is essential given the complexity of coastal areas. A set of indices and indicators have been developed supported by a Geographic Information System that allows graphical representation of physical, environmental, social, economic and infrastructure characteristics of the coast. Different spatial and temporal scales have been also considered in this project to calculate the risk, since both factors would change the amount and type of exposed elements and their vulnerability. A final global RISK analysis (hazard, exposure and vulnerability analysis for each dimension -human, environmental, socioeconomic and infrastructure- and both temporal and spatial scales) allows identifying weaknesses, gaps and special needs to cope with a tsunami event and, therefore, will result in a set of risk reduction measures, including adaptation and mitigation measures.

A "weight of evidence" approach for the integration of environmental "triad" data to assess ecological risk and biological vulnerability.

PubMed

Dagnino, Alessandro; Sforzini, Susanna; Dondero, Francesco; Fenoglio, Stefano; Bona, Elisa; Jensen, John; Viarengo, Aldo

2008-07-01

A new Expert Decision Support System (EDSS) that can integrate Triad data for assessing environmental risk and biological vulnerability at contaminated sites has been developed. Starting with ecosystem relevance, the EDSS assigns different weights to the results obtained from Triad disciplines. The following parameters have been employed: 1) chemical soil analyses (revealing the presence of potentially dangerous substances), 2) ecotoxicological bioassays (utilizing classical endpoints such as survival and reproduction rates), 3) biomarkers (showing sublethal pollutant effects), and 4) ecological parameters (assessing changes in community structure and functions). For each Triad discipline, the EDSS compares the data obtained at the studied field sites with reference values and calculates different 0-1 indexes (e.g., Chemical Risk Index, Ecotoxicological Risk Index, and Ecological Risk Index). The EDSS output consists of 3 indexes: 1) Environmental Risk index (EnvRI), quantifying the levels of biological damage at population-community level, 2) Biological Vulnerability Index (BVI), assessing the potential threats to biological equilibriums, and 3) Genotoxicity Index (GTI), screening genotoxicity effects. The EDSS has been applied in the integration of a battery of Triad data obtained during the European Union-funded Life Intervention in the Fraschetta Area (LINFA) project, which has been carried out in order to estimate the potential risk from soils of a highly anthropized area (Alessandria, Italy) mainly impacted by deposition of atmospheric pollutants. Results obtained during 4 seasonal sampling campaigns (2004-2005) show maximum values of EnvRI in sites A and B (characterized by industrial releases) and lower levels in site D (affected by vehicular traffic emissions). All 3 potentially polluted sites have shown high levels of BVI and GTI, suggesting a general change from reference conditions (site C).

Toward Probabilistic Risk Analyses - Development of a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Crescent City, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, F. I.; Leveque, R. J.; Hatheway, D.; Metzger, N.

2011-12-01

Risk is defined in many ways, but most are consistent with Crichton's [1999] definition based on the ''risk triangle'' concept and the explicit identification of three risk elements: ''Risk is the probability of a loss, and this depends on three elements: hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. If any of these three elements in risk increases or decreases, then the risk increases or decreases respectively." The World Meteorological Organization, for example, cites Crichton [1999] and then defines risk as [WMO, 2008] Risk = function (Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure) while the Asian Disaster Reduction Center adopts the more general expression [ADRC, 2005] Risk = function (Hazard, Vulnerability, Exposure) In practice, probabilistic concepts are invariably invoked, and at least one of the three factors are specified as probabilistic in nature. The Vulnerability and Exposure factors are defined in multiple ways in the relevant literature; but the Hazard factor, which is the focus of our presentation, is generally understood to deal only with the physical aspects of the phenomena and, in particular, the ability of the phenomena to inflict harm [Thywissen, 2006]. A Hazard factor can be estimated by a methodology known as Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) [González, et al., 2009]. We will describe the PTHA methodology and provide an example -- the results of a previous application to Seaside, OR. We will also present preliminary results for a PTHA of Crescent City, CA -- a pilot project and coastal modeling/mapping effort funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Region IX office as part of the new California Coastal Analysis and Mapping Project (CCAMP). CCAMP and the PTHA in Crescent City are being conducted under the nationwide FEMA Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) Program which focuses on providing communities with flood information and tools they can use to enhance their mitigation plans and better protect their citizens.

From grey to green: Efficacy of eco-engineering solutions for nature-based coastal defence.

PubMed

Morris, Rebecca L; Konlechner, Teresa M; Ghisalberti, Marco; Swearer, Stephen E

2018-05-01

Climate change is increasing the threat of erosion and flooding along coastlines globally. Engineering solutions (e.g. seawalls and breakwaters) in response to protecting coastal communities and associated infrastructure are increasingly becoming economically and ecologically unsustainable. This has led to recommendations to create or restore natural habitats, such as sand dunes, saltmarsh, mangroves, seagrass and kelp beds, and coral and shellfish reefs, to provide coastal protection in place of (or to complement) artificial structures. Coastal managers are frequently faced with the problem of an eroding coastline, which requires a decision on what mitigation options are most appropriate to implement. A barrier to uptake of nature-based coastal defence is stringent evaluation of the effectiveness in comparison to artificial protection structures. Here, we assess the current evidence for the efficacy of nature-based vs. artificial coastal protection and discuss future research needs. Future projects should evaluate habitats created or restored for coastal defence for cost-effectiveness in comparison to an artificial structure under the same environmental conditions. Cost-benefit analyses should take into consideration all ecosystem services provided by nature-based or artificial structures in addition to coastal protection. Interdisciplinary research among scientists, coastal managers and engineers is required to facilitate the experimental trials needed to test the value of these shoreline protection schemes, in order to support their use as alternatives to artificial structures. This research needs to happen now as our rapidly changing climate requires new and innovative solutions to reduce the vulnerability of coastal communities to an increasingly uncertain future. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association claim payout of commercial buildings from Hurricane Ike

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. M.; Woods, P. K.; Park, Y. J.; Son, K.

2013-08-01

Following growing public awareness of the danger from hurricanes and tremendous demands for analysis of loss, many researchers have conducted studies to develop hurricane damage analysis methods. Although researchers have identified the significant indicators, there currently is no comprehensive research for identifying the relationship among the vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and economic losses associated with individual buildings. To address this lack of research, this study will identify vulnerabilities and hurricane indicators, develop metrics to measure the influence of economic losses from hurricanes, and visualize the spatial distribution of vulnerability to evaluate overall hurricane damage. This paper has utilized the Geographic Information System to facilitate collecting and managing data, and has combined vulnerability factors to assess the financial losses suffered by Texas coastal counties. A multiple linear regression method has been applied to develop hurricane economic damage predicting models. To reflect the pecuniary loss, insured loss payment was used as the dependent variable to predict the actual financial damage. Geographical vulnerability indicators, built environment vulnerability indicators, and hurricane indicators were all used as independent variables. Accordingly, the models and findings may possibly provide vital references for government agencies, emergency planners, and insurance companies hoping to predict hurricane damage.

Source, transport and fate of soil organic matter inferred from microbial biomarker lipids on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bischoff, Juliane; Sparkes, Robert B.; Doğrul Selver, Ayça; Spencer, Robert G. M.; Gustafsson, Örjan; Semiletov, Igor P.; Dudarev, Oleg V.; Wagner, Dirk; Rivkina, Elizaveta; van Dongen, Bart E.; Talbot, Helen M.

2016-09-01

The Siberian Arctic contains a globally significant pool of organic carbon (OC) vulnerable to enhanced warming and subsequent release by both fluvial and coastal erosion processes. However, the rate of release, its behaviour in the Arctic Ocean and vulnerability to remineralisation is poorly understood. Here we combine new measurements of microbial biohopanoids including adenosylhopane, a lipid associated with soil microbial communities, with published glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) and bulk δ13C measurements to improve knowledge of the fate of OC transported to the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS). The microbial hopanoid-based soil OC proxy R'soil ranges from 0.0 to 0.8 across the ESAS, with highest values nearshore and decreases offshore. Across the shelf R'soil displays a negative linear correlation with bulk δ13C measurements (r2 = -0.73, p = < 0.001). When compared to the GDGT-based OC proxy, the branched and isoprenoid tetraether (BIT) index, a decoupled (non-linear) behaviour on the shelf was observed, particularly in the Buor-Khaya Bay, where the R'soil shows limited variation, whereas the BIT index shows a rapid decline moving away from the Lena River outflow channels. This reflects a balance between delivery and removal of OC from different sources. The good correlation between the hopanoid and bulk terrestrial signal suggests a broad range of hopanoid sources, both fluvial and via coastal erosion, whilst GDGTs appear to be primarily sourced via fluvial transport. Analysis of ice complex deposits (ICDs) revealed an average R'soil of 0.5 for the Lena Delta, equivalent to that of the Buor-Khaya Bay sediments, whilst ICDs from further east showed higher values (0.6-0.85). Although R'soil correlates more closely with bulk OC than the BIT, our understanding of the endmembers of this system is clearly still incomplete, with variations between the different East Siberian Arctic regions potentially reflecting differences in environmental conditions (e.g. temperature, pH), but other physiological controls on microbial bacteriohopanepolyol (BHP) production under psychrophilic conditions are as yet unknown.

RIGED-RA project - Restoration and management of Coastal Dunes in the Northern Adriatic Coast, Ravenna Area - Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giambastiani, Beatrice M. S.; Greggio, Nicolas; Sistilli, Flavia; Fabbri, Stefano; Scarelli, Frederico; Candiago, Sebastian; Anfossi, Giulia; Lipparini, Carlo A.; Cantelli, Luigi; Antonellini, Marco; Gabbianelli, Giovanni

2016-10-01

Coastal dunes play an important role in protecting the coastline. Unfortunately, in the last decades dunes have been removed or damaged by human activities. In the Emilia- Romagna region significant residual dune systems are found only along Ravenna and Ferrara coasts. In this context, the RIGED-RA project “Restoration and management of coastal dunes along the Ravenna coast” (2013-2016) has been launched with the aims to identify dynamics, erosion and vulnerability of Northern Adriatic coast and associated residual dunes, and to define intervention strategies for dune protection and restoration. The methodology is based on a multidisciplinary approach that integrates the expertise of several researchers and investigates all aspects (biotic and abiotic), which drive the dune-beach system. All datasets were integrated to identify test sites for applying dune restoration. The intervention finished in April 2016; evolution and restoration efficiency will be assessed.

Mangroves as a protection from storm surges in a changing climate.

PubMed

Blankespoor, Brian; Dasgupta, Susmita; Lange, Glenn-Marie

2017-05-01

Adaptation to climate change includes addressing sea-level rise (SLR) and increased storm surges in many coastal areas. Mangroves can substantially reduce vulnerability of the adjacent coastal land from inundation but SLR poses a threat to the future of mangroves. This paper quantifies coastal protection services of mangroves for 42 developing countries in the current climate, and a future climate change scenario with a 1-m SLR and 10  % intensification of storms. Findings demonstrate that while SLR and increased storm intensity would increase storm surge areas, the greatest impact is from the expected loss of mangroves. Under current climate and mangrove coverage, 3.5 million people and GDP worth roughly US $400 million are at risk. In the future climate change scenario, vulnerable population and GDP at risk would increase by 103 and 233  %. The greatest risk is in East Asia, especially in Indonesia and the Philippines as well as Myanmar.

Improving vulnerability models: lessons learned from a comparison between flood and earthquake assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen; Ward, Philip; Daniell, James; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

In a cross-discipline study, an extensive literature review has been conducted to increase the understanding of vulnerability indicators used in both earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments, and to provide insights into potential improvements of earthquake and flood vulnerability assessments. It identifies and compares indicators used to quantitatively assess earthquake and flood vulnerability, and discusses their respective differences and similarities. Indicators have been categorized into Physical- and Social categories, and further subdivided into (when possible) measurable and comparable indicators. Physical vulnerability indicators have been differentiated to exposed assets such as buildings and infrastructure. Social indicators are grouped in subcategories such as demographics, economics and awareness. Next, two different vulnerability model types have been described that use these indicators: index- and curve-based vulnerability models. A selection of these models (e.g. HAZUS) have been described, and compared on several characteristics such as temporal- and spatial aspects. It appears that earthquake vulnerability methods are traditionally strongly developed towards physical attributes at an object scale and used in vulnerability curve models, whereas flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use scales. Flood risk studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as incorporating more detailed lifeline and building indicators, and developing object-based vulnerability curve assessments of physical vulnerability, for example by defining building material based flood vulnerability curves. Related to this, is the incorporation of time of the day based building occupation patterns (at 2am most people will be at home while at 2pm most people will be in the office). Earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies when it comes to the refined selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies to further explore cross-hazard studies.

Socio-economic vulnerability of coastal communities in southern Thailand: the development of adaptation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willroth, P.; Massmann, F.; Wehrhahn, R.; Revilla Diez, J.

2012-08-01

The tsunami of December 2004 impacted large areas of Thailand's coastline and caused severe human and economic losses. The recovery period revealed differences in the vulnerabilities of communities affected. An understanding of the causal factors of vulnerability is crucial for minimising the negative effects of future threats and developing adaptive capacities. This paper analyses the vulnerabilities and the development of adaptation strategies in the booming tourist area of Khao Lak and in the predominantly fishing and agricultural area of Ban Nam Khem through a comprehensive vulnerability framework. The results show that social networks played a crucial role in coping with the disaster. Social cohesion is important for strengthening the community and developing successful adaptation strategies. The development of tourism and the turning away from traditional activities have a significant positive influence on the income situation, but create a dependency on a single business sector. It could be shown that households generating their income in the tourism sector were vulnerable unless they had diversified their income previously. Income diversification decreased the vulnerability in the study areas. Adaptation strategies and processes developed in the aftermath clearly address these issues.

Natural and Human-Induced Variability in Barrier-Island Response to Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miselis, Jennifer L.; Lorenzo-Trueba, Jorge

2017-12-01

Storm-driven sediment fluxes onto and behind barrier islands help coastal barrier systems keep pace with sea level rise (SLR). Understanding what controls cross-shore sediment flux magnitudes is critical for making accurate forecasts of barrier response to increased SLR rates. Here, using an existing morphodynamic model for barrier island evolution, observations are used to constrain model parameters and explore potential variability in future barrier behavior. Using modeled drowning outcomes as a proxy for vulnerability to SLR, 0%, 28%, and 100% of the barrier is vulnerable to SLR rates of 4, 7, and 10 mm/yr, respectively. When only overwash fluxes are increased in the model, drowning vulnerability increases for the same rates of SLR, suggesting that future increases in storminess may increase island vulnerability particularly where sediment resources are limited. Developed sites are more vulnerable to SLR, indicating that anthropogenic changes to overwash fluxes and estuary depths could profoundly affect future barrier response to SLR.

Methods of eutrophication assessment in the context of the water framework directive: Examples from the Eastern Mediterranean coastal areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlidou, Alexandra; Simboura, Nomiki; Rousselaki, Eleni; Tsapakis, Manolis; Pagou, Kalliopi; Drakopoulou, Paraskevi; Assimakopoulou, Georgia; Kontoyiannis, Harilaos; Panayotidis, Panayotis

2015-10-01

A set of methodological tools were tested in order to assess the eutrophication quality of selected coastal areas in Eastern Mediterranean Sea, Greece, in the context of the Water Framework Directive under various anthropogenic pressures. Three, five-step tools, namely, TRIX, chlorophyll-a (chl-a) biomass classification scheme, and eutrophication index (E.I.) were applied in oligotrophic waters for (a) the whole water column and (b) the euphotic zone. The relationship among the eutrophication assessment indices and the ecological quality status (EcoQ) assessment indices for benthic macroinvertebrates (BENTIX index) and macroalgae (ecological evaluation index-EEIc) was also explored. Agricultural activities and mariculture are the pressures mostly related to the eutrophication assessment of the selected Greek coastal water bodies. Chl-a proved to be the criterion with the best overall correlation with the EcoQ indices, while TRIX with the lowest. Moreover, among the eutrophication indices, E.I. showed better overall agreement with BENTIX showing that probably it reflects the indirect relation of macroinvertebrates with water eutrophication in a better way. Among the eutrophication indices used, TRIX rather overestimated the eutrophication status of the selected coastal areas. The first stage of eutrophication was reflected more efficiently using E.I. than TRIX, but E.I. seems to be a rather sensitive index. A future modification of the high to good boundary of E.I. may be needed in order to demonstrate the high status of the relatively undisturbed Greek coastal sites.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shao, Huaiyong, E-mail: huaiyongshao@163.com; Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing 48823, MI; Sun, Xiaofei

The Chinese government has conducted the Returning Grazing Land to Grassland Project (RGLGP) across large portions of grasslands from western China since 2003. In order to explore and understand the impact in the grassland's eco-environment during the RGLGP, we utilized Projection Pursuit Model (PPM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) to develop a spatial assessment model to examine the ecological vulnerability of the grassland. Our results include five indications: (1) it is practical to apply the spatial PPM on ecological vulnerability assessment for the grassland. This methodology avoids creating an artificial hypothesis, thereby providing objective results that successfully execute a multi-indexmore » assessment process and analysis under non-linear systems in eco-environments; (2) the spatial PPM is not only capable of evaluating regional eco-environmental vulnerability in a quantitative way, but also can quantitatively demonstrate the degree of effect in each evaluation index for regional eco-environmental vulnerability; (3) the eco-environment of the Xianshui River Basin falls into the medium range level. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land use cover and change (LUCC) crucially influence the Xianshui River Basin's eco-environmental vulnerability. Generally, in the Xianshui River Basin, regional eco-environmental conditions improved during 2000 and 2010. The RGLGP positively affected NDVI and LUCC structure, thereby promoting the enhancement of the regional eco-environment; (4) the Xianshui River Basin divides its ecological vulnerability across different levels; therefore our study investigates three ecological regions and proposes specific suggestions for each in order to assist in eco-environmental protection and rehabilitation; and lastly that (5) the spatial PPM established by this study has the potential to be applied on all types of grassland eco-environmental vulnerability assessments under the RGLGP and under the similar conditions in the Returning Agriculture Land to Forest Project (RALFP). However, when establishing an eco-environmental vulnerability assessment model, it is necessary to choose suitable evaluation indexes in accordance with regional eco-environmental characteristics. - Highlights: • We present a method for regional eco-environmental vulnerability assessment. • The method combines Projection Pursuit Model with Geographic Information System. • The Returning Grazing Land to Grassland Project is crucial to environment recovery. • The method is more objective to assess regional eco-environmental vulnerability.« less

Natural and human-induced variability in barrier-island response to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miselis, Jennifer L.; Lorenzo-Trueba, Jorge

2017-01-01

Storm-driven sediment fluxes onto and behind barrier islands help coastal barrier systems keep pace with sea level rise (SLR). Understanding what controls cross-shore sediment flux magnitudes is critical for making accurate forecasts of barrier response to increased SLR rates. Here, using an existing morphodynamic model for barrier island evolution, observations are used to constrain model parameters and explore potential variability in future barrier behavior. Using modeled drowning outcomes as a proxy for vulnerability to SLR, 0%, 28%, and 100% of the barrier is vulnerable to SLR rates of 4, 7, and 10 mm/yr, respectively. When only overwash fluxes are increased in the model, drowning vulnerability increases for the same rates of SLR, suggesting that future increases in storminess may increase island vulnerability particularly where sediment resources are limited. Developed sites are more vulnerable to SLR, indicating that anthropogenic changes to overwash fluxes and estuary depths could profoundly affect future barrier response to SLR.

Spatio-temporal scaling effects on longshore sediment transport pattern along the nearshore zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khorram, Saeed; Ergil, Mustafa

2018-03-01

A measure of uncertainties, entropy has been employed in such different applications as coastal engineering probability inferences. Entropy sediment transport integration theories present novel visions in coastal analyses/modeling the application and development of which are still far-reaching. Effort has been made in the present paper to propose a method that needs an entropy-power index for spatio-temporal patterns analyses. Results have shown that the index is suitable for marine/hydrological ecosystem components analyses based on a beach area case study. The method makes use of six Makran Coastal monthly data (1970-2015) and studies variables such as spatio-temporal patterns, LSTR (long-shore sediment transport rate), wind speed, and wave height all of which are time-dependent and play considerable roles in terrestrial coastal investigations; the mentioned variables show meaningful spatio-temporal variability most of the time, but explanation of their combined performance is not easy. Accordingly, the use of an entropy-power index can show considerable signals that facilitate the evaluation of water resources and will provide an insight regarding hydrological parameters' interactions at scales as large as beach areas. Results have revealed that an STDDPI (entropy based spatio-temporal disorder dynamics power index) can simulate wave, long-shore sediment transport rate, and wind when granulometry, concentration, and flow conditions vary.

Can we use the q-Gaussian of ambient noise fluctuations as a vulnerability index? A case study in Cultural Heritage buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallianatos, Filippos; Koutalonis, Ioannis; Moisidi, Margarita; Chatzopoulos, Georgios

2018-05-01

In this work we study in terms of Tsallis statistical mechanics the properties of microtremors' fluctuations in two church bell towers, which are monuments of cultural heritage, in the city of Chania (Crete, Greece). We have shown that fluctuations of ambient vibrations recordings in the Church tower bells follow a q-Gaussian distribution. The behavior of Tsallis q parameter with the level (high) of the measuring point within the tower and the amplification factors at that points as extracted from horizontal-to-vertical (HVSR) spectral ratios are presented and discussed. Since q decreases as the amplification factor increases, we could suggest q as a vulnerability index, where, as q decreases approaching unity, then the structural system is getting more vulnerable. The latter approach suggests that introducing ideas of Tsallis statistics could be useful in characterizing extremely complex processes as that governed the estimation of seismic vulnerability in which a multidisciplinary approach is required.

LANDSAT application of remote sensing to shoreline-form analysis. [Cape Hatteras, Cape Lookout, and Assateague Island

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dolan, R.; Hayden, B.; Heywood, J. (Principal Investigator)

1978-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Using Assateague Island, Cape Hatteras, and Cape Lookout, significantly high correlations were found for most of the six barrier island sections that were examined. Relationships were not consistent from island to island. It was concluded that coastal vulnerability to storm damage can not be assessed based on coastal orientation alone. When orientation data were combined with erosion data for individual barrier islands, the relationship could be used as a basis for barrier island classification. A method was developed to obtain large amounts of historical data on surface coastal process from aerial photography, which was called the orthogonal grid address system. Data on shoreline change and overwash penetration gathered on over 400 km of the mid-Atlantic coast, are being used by various federal and state agencies for planning purposes.

Pressures, trends, and impacts in coastal zones: Interactions between socioeconomic and natural systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, R. K.; Subak, S.; Adger, W. N.

1996-03-01

This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socioeconomic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea-level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damage in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures including information, economic market, and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. While it is the case that forecasts of sea-level rise have been scaled down, much uncertainty remains over, for example, combined storm, sea surge, and other events. In any case, within the socioeconomic analyses of the problem, resource valuations have been at best only partial and have failed to incorporate sensitivity analysis in terms of the discount rates utilized. This would indicate an underestimation of potential damage costs. Overall, a precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning.

[Mapping environmental vulnerability from ETM + data in the Yellow River Mouth Area].

PubMed

Wang, Rui-Yan; Yu, Zhen-Wen; Xia, Yan-Ling; Wang, Xiang-Feng; Zhao, Geng-Xing; Jiang, Shu-Qian

2013-10-01

The environmental vulnerability retrieval is important to support continuing data. The spatial distribution of regional environmental vulnerability was got through remote sensing retrieval. In view of soil and vegetation, the environmental vulnerability evaluation index system was built, and the environmental vulnerability of sampling points was calculated by the AHP-fuzzy method, then the correlation between the sampling points environmental vulnerability and ETM + spectral reflectance ratio including some kinds of conversion data was analyzed to determine the sensitive spectral parameters. Based on that, models of correlation analysis, traditional regression, BP neural network and support vector regression were taken to explain the quantitative relationship between the spectral reflectance and the environmental vulnerability. With this model, the environmental vulnerability distribution was retrieved in the Yellow River Mouth Area. The results showed that the correlation between the environmental vulnerability and the spring NDVI, the September NDVI and the spring brightness was better than others, so they were selected as the sensitive spectral parameters. The model precision result showed that in addition to the support vector model, the other model reached the significant level. While all the multi-variable regression was better than all one-variable regression, and the model accuracy of BP neural network was the best. This study will serve as a reliable theoretical reference for the large spatial scale environmental vulnerability estimation based on remote sensing data.

Linking local vulnerability to climatic hazard damage assessment for integrated river basin management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Hung-Chih; Liu, Yi-Chung; Chien, Sung-Ying

2015-04-01

1. Background Major portions of areas in Asia are expected to increase exposure and vulnerability to climate change and weather extremes due to rapid urbanization and overdevelopment in hazard-prone areas. To prepare and confront the potential impacts of climate change and related hazard risk, many countries have implemented programs of integrated river basin management. This has led to an impending challenge for the police-makers in many developing countries to build effective mechanism to assess how the vulnerability distributes over river basins, and to understand how the local vulnerability links to climatic (climate-related) hazard damages and risks. However, the related studies have received relatively little attention. This study aims to examine whether geographic localities characterized by high vulnerability experience significantly more damages owing to onset weather extreme events at the river basin level, and to explain what vulnerability factors influence these damages or losses. 2. Methods and data An indicator-based assessment framework is constructed with the goal of identifying composite indicators (including exposure, biophysical, socioeconomic, land-use and adaptive capacity factors) that could serve as proxies for attributes of local vulnerability. This framework is applied by combining geographical information system (GIS) techniques with multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to evaluate and map integrated vulnerability to climatic hazards across river basins. Furthermore, to explain the relationship between vulnerability factors and disaster damages, we develop a disaster damage model (DDM) based on existing disaster impact theory. We then synthesize a Zero-Inflated Poisson regression model with a Tobit regression analysis to identify and examine how the disaster impacts and vulnerability factors connect to typhoon disaster damages and losses. To illustrate the proposed methodology, the study collects data on the vulnerability attributes of the Kaoping, Tsengwen, and Taimali River basins in southern Taiwan, and on the disaster impacts and damages in these river basins due to Typhoon Morakot in 2009. The data was offered by the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan, as well as collected from the National Land Use Investigation, official census statistics and questionnaire surveys. 3. Results We use an MCDA to create a composite vulnerability index, and this index is incorporated into a GIS analysis to demonstrate the results of integrated vulnerability assessment throughout the river basins. Results of the vulnerability assessment indicate that the most vulnerable areas are almost all situated in the regions of middle and upper reaches of the river basins. Through the examining of DDM, it shows that the vulnerability factors play a critical role in determining disaster damages. Findings also present that the losses and casualties caused by Typhoon Morakot increase with elevation, urban and agricultural developments, proximity to rivers, and decrease with levels of income and adaptive capacity. Finally, we propose the adaptive options for minimizing vulnerability and risk, as well as for integrated river basin governance.

Middle Holocene marine flooding and human response in the south Yangtze coastal plain, East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhanghua; Ryves, David B.; Lei, Shao; Nian, Xiaomei; Lv, Ye; Tang, Liang; Wang, Long; Wang, Jiehua; Chen, Jie

2018-05-01

Coastal flooding catastrophes have affected human societies on coastal plains around the world on several occasions in the past, and are threatening 21st century societies under global warming and sea-level rise. However, the role of coastal flooding in the interruption of the Neolithic Liangzhu culture in the lower Yangtze valley, East China coast has been long contested. In this study, we used a well-dated Neolithic site (the Yushan site) close to the present coastline to demonstrate a marine drowning event at the terminal stage of the Liangzhu culture and discuss its linkage to relative sea-level rise. We analysed sedimentology, chronology, organic elemental composition, diatoms and dinoflagellate cysts for several typical profiles at the Yushan site. The field and sedimentary data provided clear evidence of a palaeo-typhoon event that overwhelmed the Yushan site at ∼2560 BCE, which heralded a period of marine inundation and ecological deterioration at the site. We also infer an acceleration in sea-level rise at 2560-2440 BCE from the sedimentary records at Yushan, which explains the widespread signatures of coastal flooding across the south Yangtze coastal plain at that time. The timing of this mid-Holocene coastal flooding coincided with the sudden disappearance of the advanced and widespread Liangzhu culture along the lower Yangtze valley. We infer that extreme events and flooding accompanying accelerated sea-level rise were major causes of vulnerability for prehistoric coastal societies.

Ranking terrestrial vertebrate species for utility in biomonitoring and vulnerability to environmental contaminants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Golden, N.H.; Rattner, B.A.

2003-01-01

The measurement of contaminant tissue concentrations or exposure-related effects in biota has been used extensively to monitor pollution and environmental health. Terrestrial vertebrates have historically been an important group of species in such evaluations, not only because many are excellent sentinels of environmental contamination, but also because they are valued natural resources in their own right that may be adversely affected by toxicant exposure. Selection of appropriate vertebrates for biomonitoring studies frequently relies on expert opinion, although a few rigorous schemes are in use for predicting vulnerability of birds to the adverse effects of petroleum crude oil. A Utility Index that ranks terrestrial vertebrate species as potential sentinels of contaminants in a region, and a Vulnerability Index that assesses the threat of specific groups of contaminants to these species, have been developed to assist decision makers in risk assessments of persistent organic pollutants, cholinesterase-inhibiting pesticides, petroleum crude oil, mercury, and lead shot. Twenty-five terrestrial vertebrate species commonly found in Atlantic Coast estuarine habitat were ranked for their utility as biomonitors of contamination and their vulnerability to pollutants in this region. No single species, taxa or class of vertebrates was found to be an ideal sentinel for all groups of contaminants. Although birds have overwhelmingly been used to monitor contaminants compared to other terrestrial vertebrate classes, the non-migratory nature and dietary habits of the snapping turtle and mink consistently resulted in ranking these species excellent sentinels as well. Vulnerability of Atlantic Coast populations of these species varied considerably among groups of contaminants. Usually a particular species was found to be at high risk to only one or two groups of contaminants, although a noteworthy exception is the bald eagle that is highly vulnerable to all five of the contaminant groups examined. This index could be further enhanced by generation of additional comparative toxicity data to facilitate interspecific extrapolations. The Utility and Vulnerability Indices have application to many types of habitat types in addition to estuaries, and are of value to natural resource and risk managers that routinely conduct local, regional or national environmental quality assessments.

Evaluation of comprehensive environmental effect about coastal zone development activities in Liaoning Province and management advice.

PubMed

Wang, Wei-Wei; Cai, Yue-Yin; Sun, Yong-Guang; Ma, Hong-Wei

2015-07-01

Using spatial analysis function of Arcgis software, the present study investigated the building environment impact evaluation index system of coastal development in Liaoning Province. The factors of it included of current state of environmental quality, environmental impact of marine development and marine environmental disaster. Weighted factor analysis and comprehensive index method were utilized. At the end, comprehensive environment effect of coastal development in Liaoning Province were evaluated successfully. The result showed that the environmental effect of development activity were most serious, along the Zhao Jiatun coast in north of Zhimao bay and coast of Mianhua island in Dalian bay.

Science supporting Gulf of Mexico oil-spill response, mitigation, and restoration activities-Assessment, monitoring, mapping, and coordination

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kindinger, Jack; Tihansky, Ann B.; Cimitile, Matthew

2011-01-01

The St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) investigates physical processes related to coastal and marine environments and societal implications related to natural hazards, resource sustainability, and environmental change. Immediately after the Deepwater Horizon event, the USGS began responding to data requests, directing response personnel, and providing coastal and shelf geophysical data to coastal-resource managers. The USGS provided oil-spill responders with up-to-date coastal bathymetry, geologic data, and maps characterizing vulnerability and levels of risk from potential spill impacts in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Baseline conditions prior to any spill impacts were documented through programs that included shoreline sampling and sediment coring from east Texas to the east coast of Florida and aerial photography of many environmentally sensitive Gulf coastal areas. The USGS responded to numerous verbal and written data requests from Federal, State, and local partners and academic institutions with USGS scientific staff participating in the Coast Guard Unified Commands (UC) and Operational Science Advisory Teams (OSAT). The USGS conducted technical review of reports and plans for many response activities. Oil-spill responders, managers, and personnel on the ground, including partners such as the National Park Service, Gulf Islands National Seashore, Chandeleur Islands Refuge, and State agencies, continue to rely on USGS products.

Sea Level Rise Decision Support Tools for Adaptation Planning in Vulnerable Coastal Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozum, J. S.; Marcy, D.

2015-12-01

NOAA is involved in a myriad of climate related research and projects that help decision makers and the public understand climate science as well as climate change impacts. The NOAA Office for Coastal Management (OCM) provides data, tools, trainings and technical assistance to coastal resource managers. Beginning in 2011, NOAA OCM began developing a sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts viewer which provides nationally consistent data sets and analyses to help communities with coastal management goals such as: understanding and communicating coastal flood hazards, performing vulnerability assessments and increasing coastal resilience, and prioritizing actions for different inundation/flooding scenarios. The Viewer is available on NOAA's Digital Coast platform: (coast.noaa.gov/ditgitalcoast/tools/slr). In this presentation we will share the lessons learned from our work with coastal decision-makers on the role of coastal flood risk data and tools in helping to shape future land use decisions and policies. We will also focus on a recent effort in California to help users understand the similarities and differences of a growing array of sea level rise decision support tools. NOAA staff and other partners convened a workshop entitled, "Lifting the Fog: Bringing Clarity to Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Change Models and Tools," which was attended by tool develops, science translators and coastal managers with the goal to create a collaborative communication framework to help California coastal decision-makers navigate the range of available sea level rise planning tools, and to inform tool developers of future planning needs. A sea level rise tools comparison matrix will be demonstrated. This matrix was developed as part of this effort and has been expanded to many other states via a partnership with NOAA, Climate Central, and The Nature Conservancy.

Hurricane Ike: Observations and Analysis of Coastal Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doran, Kara S.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Serafin, Katherine A.

2009-01-01

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with the storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, and wave climate. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and large waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to those processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is equally important to the coastal change observed during extreme storm events. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards Project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes), strives to provide hazard information to those interested in the Nation's coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure coastal changes associated with Hurricane Ike, which made landfall near Galveston, Texas, on September 13, 2008. Methods of observation included aerial photography and airborne topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline, beaches, dunes, and infrastructure in the region that was heavily impacted by Hurricane Ike.

Impact of topography on groundwater salinization due to ocean surge inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xuan; Yang, Jie; Graf, Thomas; Koneshloo, Mohammad; O'Neal, Michael A.; Michael, Holly A.

2016-08-01

Sea-level rise and increases in the frequency and intensity of ocean surges caused by climate change are likely to exacerbate adverse effects on low-lying coastal areas. The landward flow of water during ocean surges introduces salt to surficial coastal aquifers and threatens groundwater resources. Coastal topographic features (e.g., ponds, dunes, barrier islands, and channels) likely have a strong impact on overwash and salinization processes, but are generally highly simplified in modeling studies. To understand topographic impacts on groundwater salinization, we modeled a theoretical overwash event and variable-density groundwater flow and salt transport in 3-D using the fully coupled surface and subsurface numerical simulator, HydroGeoSphere. The model simulates the coastal aquifer as an integrated system considering overland flow, coupled surface and subsurface exchange, variably saturated flow, and variable-density groundwater flow. To represent various coastal landscape types, we simulated both synthetic fields and real-world coastal topography from Delaware, USA. The groundwater salinization assessment suggested that the topographic connectivity promoting overland flow controls the volume of aquifer that is salinized. In contrast, the amount of water that can be stored in surface depressions determines the amount of seawater that infiltrates the subsurface and the time for seawater to flush from the aquifer. Our study suggests that topography has a significant impact on groundwater salinization due to ocean surge overwash, with important implications for coastal land management and groundwater vulnerability assessment.

Hydrologic vulnerability of tribal reservation lands across the U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, C., Jr.; Leibowitz, S. G.; Sawicz, K. A.; Comeleo, R. L.; Stratton, L. E.

2017-12-01

We apply the hydrologic landscapes (HL) concept to assess the hydrologic vulnerability to climate of the United States (U.S.) with special emphasis on tribal lands. The basic assumption of the HL approach is that catchments that share similar physical and climatic characteristics are expected to have similar hydrologic characteristics. We map climate vulnerability by integrating a retrospective analysis of historical climate and hydrology into the HL approach, comparing this baseline of variability with future projections of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, climatic moisture, surplus water, and seasonality of the water surplus. Projections that are not within two standard deviations of the historical decadal average contribute to the vulnerability index for each metric. This allows stakeholders and/or water resource managers to understand the potential impacts of future conditions. The resulting vulnerability maps show that temperature and potential evapotranspiration are consistently projected to have high vulnerability indices across the U.S. including all tribal reservations. Precipitation vulnerability is not as spatially-uniform as temperature. Most areas with snow are projected to experience significant changes in future snow accumulation. The seasonality vulnerability map shows that mountainous areas in the West are most prone to changes in seasonality. This paper illustrates how the HL approach can help assess climatic and hydrologic vulnerability for disadvantaged groups across the U.S. By combining the HL concept and climate vulnerability analyses, we provide an approach that can assist tribal resource managers to perform vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans, which is a major priority for the tribes nationwide.

A methodological approach to assess beach-dune system susceptibility to erosion. Cases studies from Valdelagrana spit (Spain) and Campomarino beach (Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzo, Angela; Aucelli, Pietro P. C.; Gracia, Javier F.; Anfuso, Giorgio; Rosskopf, Carmen M.

2016-04-01

Dunes provide many important services to coastal areas, such as coastal erosion mitigation, coastal flooding protection and biological diversity. Their dynamic equilibrium and geomorphological evolution are the result of the interaction between marine and aeolian processes. Moreover, coastal dunes are characterized by a high ecological value, being a narrow strip between marine and terrestrial ecosystems and are habitats considered of community interest by the Habitats Directive 92/43/EEC. In the meantime, the significant increase of human pressure on coastal environments during the last decades has caused a strong alteration and an increase of the fragility and fragmentation of these habitats. This paper presents a methodological approach for the assessment of the beach-dune system susceptibility to erosion. The aim is to identify, at the local scale, the degree of susceptibility of coastal stretches in order to evaluate the degree of exposure of human settlements and natural environments located behind the dune system and to support actuations to appropriately improve dune management and conservation. A coastal susceptibility matrix and a corresponding Coastal Susceptibility Index (CSI) are proposed. Following the assumption that a good index should be based on a minimum amount of essential information (Cooper and McLaughlin, 1998), possibly already available or easy to be obtained (Villa and McLeod, 2002), the proposed index consisted into eight variables concerning existing beach and dune conditions, covering geomorphological, physical and anthropogenic aspects. Each variable was inserted into a GIS system and overlapped with the others through a logical overlay operation. The resulting layer was reclassified according to the formula proposed by Rangel and Anfuso (2015) allowing to calculate the CSI, which ranged from 1 (null/very low susceptibility) to 5 (very high susceptibility). In a further step, the predominant processes occurred in the last decades were considered by taking into account the medium term evolution (approx. 30 years) of the dune toe and dune vegetation cover. The proposed methodology was tested for two coastal sectors with different physiographic and marine conditions and different land use characteristics: the Valdelagrana beach and the Campomarino beach that are respectively located in the eastern part of the Gulf of Cadiz (Spain) and in the southern part of the Molise coastal stretch (Italy). Preliminary results show that the methodology allows identifying within the studied coastal sectors coast stretches with different degree of susceptibility. It is furthermore very advantageous as it requires parameters mostly already available through photo-interpretation, therefore it is easy to apply without requiring field surveys as do many other index-based methods.

Assessing Household Economic Vulnerability in HIV-Affected Communities in Five Regions of Côte d'Ivoire

PubMed Central

Burke, Holly M.; Moret, Whitney; Field, Samuel; Chen, Mario; Zeng, Yanwu; Seka, Firmin M.

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to identify and describe levels of household economic vulnerability in HIV-affected communities in Côte d’Ivoire, defined as those with a high prevalence of HIV and large numbers of orphans and vulnerable children. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 3,749 households in five health regions of Côte d’Ivoire. Using principal component analysis, we attempted to identify sets of correlated vulnerabilities and derive a small number of composite scores to create an index for targeting interventions to vulnerable populations. The 65 vulnerability measures examined did not cluster in ways that would allow for the creation of a small number of composite measures. Instead, we found that households face numerous unique pathways to vulnerability. PMID:27655530

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sahoo, Satiprasad; Dhar, Anirban, E-mail: anirban.dhar@gmail.com; Kar, Amlanjyoti

Environmental management of an area describes a policy for its systematic and sustainable environmental protection. In the present study, regional environmental vulnerability assessment in Hirakud command area of Odisha, India is envisaged based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Grey–AHP) using integrated remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Grey–AHP combines the advantages of classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering method for accurate estimation of weight coefficients. It is a new method for environmental vulnerability assessment. Environmental vulnerability index (EVI) uses natural, environmental and human impact related factors, e.g., soil, geology, elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, windmore » speed, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, crop intensity, agricultural DRASTIC value, population density and road density. EVI map has been classified into four environmental vulnerability zones (EVZs) namely: ‘low’, ‘moderate’ ‘high’, and ‘extreme’ encompassing 17.87%, 44.44%, 27.81% and 9.88% of the study area, respectively. EVI map indicates that the northern part of the study area is more vulnerable from an environmental point of view. EVI map shows close correlation with elevation. Effectiveness of the zone classification is evaluated by using grey clustering method. General effectiveness is in between “better” and “common classes”. This analysis demonstrates the potential applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Environmental vulnerability zone identification based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • The effectiveness evaluation by means of a grey clustering method with support from AHP • Use of grey approach eliminates the excessive dependency on the experience of experts.« less

An approach of habitat degradation assessment for characterization on coastal habitat conservation tendency.

PubMed

Zhou, Xi-Yin; Lei, Kun; Meng, Wei

2017-09-01

Coastal zones are population and economy highly intensity regions all over the world, and coastal habitat supports the sustainable development of human society. The accurate assessment of coastal habitat degradation is the essential prerequisite for coastal zone protection. In this study, an integrated framework of coastal habitat degradation assessment including landuse classification, habitat classifying and zoning, evaluation criterion of coastal habitat degradation and coastal habitat degradation index has been established for better regional coastal habitat assessment. Through establishment of detailed three-class landuse classification, the fine landscape change is revealed, the evaluation criterion of coastal habitat degradation through internal comparison based on the results of habitat classifying and zoning could indicate the levels of habitat degradation and distinguish the intensity of human disturbances in different habitat subareas under the same habitat classification. Finally, the results of coastal habitat degradation assessment could be achieved through coastal habitat degradation index (CHI). A case study of the framework is carried out in the Circum-Bohai-Sea-Coast, China, and the main results show the following: (1) The accuracy of all land use classes are above 90%, which indicates a satisfactory accuracy for the classification map. (2) The Circum-Bohai-Sea-Coast is divided into 3 kinds of habitats and 5 subareas. (3) In the five subareas of the Circum-Bohai-Sea-Coast, the levels of coastal habitat degradation own significant difference. The whole Circum-Bohai-Sea-Coast generally is in a worse state according to area weighting of each habitat subarea. This assessment framework of coastal habitat degradation would characterize the landuse change trend, realize better coastal habitat degradation assessment, reveal the habitat conservation tendency and distinguish intensity of human disturbances. Furthermore, it would support for accurate coastal zone protection measures for the specific coastal area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating the science and socio-economics of resilience along the Northeastern coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murdoch, P. S.; Jones, S.; Andersen, M. E.; Focazio, M. J.; Fulton, J. W.; Muir, R.

2014-12-01

New systems for early warning of coastal hazards, and a more accurate assessment of vulnerability of coastal regions and resources are needed to safely occupy, use, and protect the ecosystem services of our coastal landscapes and waters. The US Geological Survey and their Federal, State, Local, Non-government, and Academic partners have initiated a suite of projects to improve coastal resilience in the Northeast through better scientific understanding, modeling, and decision support. Improving coastal resilience requires understanding the complex interactions of several components of the coastal environment and their combined response to disturbances such as sea level rise, more powerful storms, development pressure, pollution, and resource extraction. New USGS research is focused on improving our capacity to predict coastal hazards and define the thresholds of resilience required for a range of sea-level rise and storm-surge scenarios. Predictive models of earth processes and ecological responses are being refined, thus improving early warning of disturbance in specific coastal sub-regions, and refining maps of the relative vulnerabilities of coastal features and communities from Virginia to Maine. Better understanding of sand sources and transport for beach replenishment and protective berms, mapping contaminant sources and release pathways, defining the factors controlling marsh accretion or migration, linking coastal and watershed hydrology, and networking new and existing tide, surge, and wave monitoring for real-time tracking of water hazards represent the multiple science products being combined to understand and protect coastal ecosystems, communities, and commerce. The integrated science underway is clarifying the thresholds of tolerance for multiple disturbance vectors in the coastal environment, and informing long-term, science-based strategies that will support "whole system" resilience into the future. A new multi-agency effort to establish metrics for measuring change in coastal resilience will build off this integrated science to help guide future coastal science in the most productive directions.

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability in the Daule aquifer, Ecuador, using the susceptibility index method.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Luís; Pindo, Juan Carlos; Dominguez-Granda, Luis

2017-01-01

The Guayas region in Ecuador is economically very important, producing 68% of the national crops. The main agricultural activities threaten the groundwater therein with nitrate contamination given the large fertiliser and water needs. The present work tests the applicability of the susceptibility index assessment method in evaluating the impact of agricultural activities on groundwater quality, using as a case study an aquifer of the Guayas river basin in Ecuador. The index adapts four parameters of the DRASTIC method and incorporated a new land use parameter. Results show that the areas highly vulnerable to contamination are located in irrigation perimeters of dominant paddy fields associated with the high recharge rates in the alluvial deposits. Respectively, moderately vulnerable and low-vulnerability areas correspond to aquatic environments and forests, semi-natural zones and water bodies. One of the main contributions of the Daule aquifer vulnerability is likely its wide, flat topography. A great part of the aquifer is at high risk of contamination by nitrates if a code of good agricultural practices is not applied. Therefore the implementation of a monitoring network to control the nitrates concentrations is the first step to assure groundwater quality for drinking purposes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coastal resource and sensitivity mapping of Vietnam

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Odin, L.M.

1997-08-01

This paper describes a project to establish a relationship between environmental sensitivity (primarily to oil pollution) and response planning and prevention priorities for Vietnamese coastal regions. An inventory of coastal environmental sensitivity and the creation of index mapping was performed. Satellite and geographical information system data were integrated and used for database creation. The database was used to create a coastal resource map, coastal sensitivity map, and a field inventory base map. The final coastal environment sensitivity classification showed that almost 40 percent of the 7448 km of mapped shoreline has a high to medium high sensitivity to oil pollution.

Vulnerability of global food production to extreme climatic events.

PubMed

Yeni, F; Alpas, H

2017-06-01

It is known that the frequency, intensity or duration of the extreme climatic events have been changing substantially. The ultimate goal of this study was to identify current vulnerabilities of global primary food production against extreme climatic events, and to discuss potential entry points for adaptation planning by means of an explorative vulnerability analysis. Outcomes of this analysis were demonstrated as a composite index where 118 country performances in maintaining safety of food production were compared and ranked against climate change. In order to better interpret the results, cluster analysis technique was used as a tool to group the countries based on their vulnerability index (VI) scores. Results suggested that one sixth of the countries analyzed were subject to high level of exposure (0.45-1), one third to high to very high level of sensitivity (0.41-1) and low to moderate level of adaptive capacity (0-0.59). Proper adaptation strategies for reducing the microbial and chemical contamination of food products, soil and waters on the field were proposed. Finally, availability of data on food safety management systems and occurrence of foodborne outbreaks with global coverage were proposed as key factors for improving the robustness of future vulnerability assessments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Generic and Pesticide DRASTIC GIS-based models for vulnerability assessment of the Quaternary aquifer at Sohag, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Ayman A.

2009-07-01

Groundwater resources in the Sohag area, Egypt are currently threatened by contamination from municipal and industrial activities, and agricultural pesticides. To cope with the growing population, there has been development in the desert zone on both sides of the Nile Valley including agricultural investment areas, wastewater disposal sites, new urban areas, and industry. Use of agrochemicals in the old cultivated and newly reclaimed lands and wastewater disposal sites in the study area represent the most hazardous contamination sources. Prevention of contamination and management of the Quaternary aquifer is urgently needed. To address vulnerability assessment of the Quaternary aquifer, the Generic and Pesticide DRASTIC GIS-based models have been used. The Generic DRASTIC index ranged between 94 and 189, and the Pesticide DRASTIC index ranged between 94 and 226. The results showed that 83% of the Quaternary aquifer is characterized by the high and very high vulnerability classes to municipal, industrial and agricultural pesticides contamination. It was found that nearly all the development projects are located in the very high vulnerability class areas. Management alternatives for the Quaternary aquifer may be improved by application of these models, allowing sensitive groundwater sources to be protected for continuing use in the future.

Vulnerability of climate change and its adaptation in the Mekong Delta: monitoring and resident's perception along the coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamura, M.; Yasuhara, K.

2014-12-01

The Mekong Delta in Vietnam is expected to face challenges from various forms of climate-induced events. In addition, a growing population, which currently stands at 18.6 million people lives in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Therefore, the Mekong Delta is the focus of international action for adaptation. However, many climate sensitive regions and communities are unprepared for climate-induced natural disasters due to mismatch in perception with their respective risks. This study examines the vulnerability and appropriate adaptation in the Mekong Delta from both scientific and regional aspects. First, we show the change in coastal areas in Soc Trang province, comparing the past to the present images using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and satellite. We identify some vulnerable areas which derived from multiple factors due to coastal erosion, flooding, and sea level rise. Second, we present results of perception survey about climate change and the adaptation at community level in Ca Mau, Soc Trang, and An Giang Provinces, which were conducted in 2012 and 2014. While the findings suggest varying degrees of adaptation to seasonal flooding by raising the ground floors of their homes and repairing houses, their capacity to prepare for extreme flooding is limited in spite of the residents' awareness of the increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Third, we propose an erosion-resistant dyke reinforcement technique by mixing natural palm tree fiber and cement, both of which are locally available materials in the Mekong Delta. It is expected that adaptation with multiple protections in accordance to regional feature can work well for such coastal disasters.

The Vulnerability Formation Mechanism and Control Strategy of the Oil and Gas Pipeline City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y. L.; Han, L.

2017-12-01

Most of the pipelines of oil and gas pipelines in our country have been for more than 25 years. These pipes are buried underground and was difficult to daily test. In addition, it was vulnerable to environmental, corrosion and natural disasters, So there is a hidden nature of accidents. The rapid development of urbanization, population accumulation, dense building and insufficient safety range are all the reasons for the frequent accidents of oil and gas pipelines. Therefore, to appraise and know the safe condition of the city various regions oil and gas pipelines is vital significant. In order to ensure the safety of oil and gas pipeline city, this paper defines the connotation of oil and gas pipeline city vulnerability according to the previous research on vulnerability. Then from three perspectives of environment, structure and behavior, based on the analytical paradigm of “structure—vulnerability conduct—performance” about oil and gas, the influential indicators of vulnerable oil and gas pipelines were analysed, the vulnerability mechanism framework of Oil and gas pipeline city was also constructed. Finally, the paper proposed the regulating strategy of the vulnerability of the oil and gas pipeline city to decrease its vulnerability index, which can be realize the city’s vulnerability evaluation and provides new ideas for the sustainable development of the city.

Determining shallow aquifer vulnerability by the DRASTIC model and hydrochemistry in granitic terrain, southern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, N. C.; Adike, S.; Singh, V. S.; Ahmed, S.; Jayakumar, K. V.

2017-08-01

Shallow aquifer vulnerability has been assessed using GIS-based DRASTIC model by incorporating the major geological and hydrogeological factors that affect and control the groundwater contamination in a granitic terrain. It provides a relative indication of aquifer vulnerability to the contamination. Further, it has been cross-verified with hydrochemical signatures such as total dissolved solids (TDS), Cl-, HCO3-, SO4^{2-} and Cl-/HCO3- molar ratios. The results show four zones of aquifer vulnerability (i.e., negligible, low, moderate and high) based on the variation of DRASTIC Vulnerability Index (DVI) between 39 and 132. About 57% area in the central part is found moderately and highly contaminated due to the 80 functional tannery disposals and is more prone to groundwater aquifer vulnerability. The high range values of TDS (2304-39,100 mg/l); Na+(239- 6,046 mg/l) and Cl- (532-13,652 mg/l) are well correlated with the observed high vulnerable zones. The values of Cl-/HCO3- (molar ratios: 1.4-106.8) in the high vulnerable zone obviously indicate deterioration of the aquifer due to contamination. Further cumulative probability distributions of these parameters indicate several threshold values which are able to demarcate the diverse vulnerability zones in granitic terrain.

Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Ning

Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is developed based on the theory of Poisson random measure, substantiated by a large amount of empirical data. An advanced vulnerability assessment methodology is then developed, by integrating this debris risk model and a component-based pressure damage model, to predict storm-specific or annual damage to coastal residential neighborhoods. The uniqueness of this vulnerability model lies in its detailed description of the interaction between wind pressure and windborne debris effects over periods of strong winds, which is a major mechanism leading to structural failures during hurricanes.

Adaptation and application of multivariate AMBI (M-AMBI) in US coastal waters.

PubMed

Pelletier, Marguerite C; Gillett, David J; Hamilton, Anna; Grayson, Treda; Hansen, Virginia; Leppo, Erik W; Weisberg, Stephan B; Borja, Angel

2018-06-01

The multivariate AMBI (M-AMBI) is an extension of the AZTI Marine Biotic Index (AMBI) that has been used extensively in Europe, but not in the United States. In a previous study, we adapted AMBI for use in US coastal waters (US AMBI), but saw biases in salinity and score distribution when compared to locally calibrated indices. In this study we modified M-AMBI for US waters and compared its performance to that of US AMBI. Index performance was evaluated in three ways: 1) concordance with local indices presently being used as management tools in three geographic regions of US coastal waters, 2) classification accuracy for sites defined a priori as good or bad and 3) insensitivity to natural environmental gradients. US M-AMBI was highly correlated with all three local indices and removed the compression in response seen in moderately disturbed sites with US AMBI. US M-AMBI and US AMBI did a similar job correctly classifying sites as good or bad in local validation datasets (83 to 100% accuracy vs. 84 to 95%, respectively). US M-AMBI also removed the salinity bias of US AMBI so that lower salinity sites were not more likely to be incorrectly classified as impaired. The US M-AMBI appears to be an acceptable index for comparing condition across broad-scales such as estuarine and coastal waters surveyed by the US EPA's National Coastal Condition Assessment, and may be applicable to areas of the US coast that do not have a locally derived benthic index.