Conditional cold avoidance drives between-population variation in germination behaviour in Calluna vulgaris.

PubMed

Spindelböck, Joachim P; Cook, Zoë; Daws, Matthew I; Heegaard, Einar; Måren, Inger E; Vandvik, Vigdis

2013-09-01

Across their range, widely distributed species are exposed to a variety of climatic and other environmental conditions, and accordingly may display variation in life history strategies. For seed germination in cold climates, two contrasting responses to variation in winter temperature have been documented: first, an increased ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold tolerance) as winter temperatures decrease, and secondly a reduced ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold avoidance) that concentrates germination towards the warmer parts of the season. Germination responses were tested for Calluna vulgaris, the dominant species of European heathlands, from ten populations collected along broad-scale bioclimatic gradients (latitude, altitude) in Norway, covering a substantial fraction of the species' climatic range. Incubation treatments varied from 10 to 25 °C, and germination performance across populations was analysed in relation to temperature conditions at the seed collection locations. Seeds from all populations germinated rapidly and to high final percentages under the warmer incubation temperatures. Under low incubation temperatures, cold-climate populations had significantly lower germination rates and percentages than warm-climate populations. While germination rates and percentages also increased with seed mass, seed mass did not vary along the climatic gradients, and therefore did not explain the variation in germination responses. Variation in germination responses among Calluna populations was consistent with increased temperature requirements for germination towards colder climates, indicating a cold-avoidance germination strategy conditional on the temperature at the seeds' origin. Along a gradient of increasing temperatures this suggests a shift in selection pressures on germination from climatic adversity (i.e. low temperatures and potential frost risk in early or late season) to competitive performance and better exploitation of the entire growing season.

Conditional cold avoidance drives between-population variation in germination behaviour in Calluna vulgaris

PubMed Central

Spindelböck, Joachim P.; Cook, Zoë; Daws, Matthew I.; Heegaard, Einar; Måren, Inger E.; Vandvik, Vigdis

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Across their range, widely distributed species are exposed to a variety of climatic and other environmental conditions, and accordingly may display variation in life history strategies. For seed germination in cold climates, two contrasting responses to variation in winter temperature have been documented: first, an increased ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold tolerance) as winter temperatures decrease, and secondly a reduced ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold avoidance) that concentrates germination towards the warmer parts of the season. Methods Germination responses were tested for Calluna vulgaris, the dominant species of European heathlands, from ten populations collected along broad-scale bioclimatic gradients (latitude, altitude) in Norway, covering a substantial fraction of the species' climatic range. Incubation treatments varied from 10 to 25 °C, and germination performance across populations was analysed in relation to temperature conditions at the seed collection locations. Key Results Seeds from all populations germinated rapidly and to high final percentages under the warmer incubation temperatures. Under low incubation temperatures, cold-climate populations had significantly lower germination rates and percentages than warm-climate populations. While germination rates and percentages also increased with seed mass, seed mass did not vary along the climatic gradients, and therefore did not explain the variation in germination responses. Conclusions Variation in germination responses among Calluna populations was consistent with increased temperature requirements for germination towards colder climates, indicating a cold-avoidance germination strategy conditional on the temperature at the seeds' origin. Along a gradient of increasing temperatures this suggests a shift in selection pressures on germination from climatic adversity (i.e. low temperatures and potential frost risk in early or late season) to competitive performance and better exploitation of the entire growing season. PMID:23884396

Incorporating Cold-Air Pooling into Downscaled Climate Models Increases Potential Refugia for Snow-Dependent Species within the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion, CA

PubMed Central

Curtis, Jennifer A.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Hudgens, Brian; Boydston, Erin E.; Young, Julie K.

2014-01-01

We present a unique water-balance approach for modeling snowpack under historic, current and future climates throughout the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion. Our methodology uses a finer scale (270 m) than previous regional studies and incorporates cold-air pooling, an atmospheric process that sustains cooler temperatures in topographic depressions thereby mitigating snowmelt. Our results are intended to support management and conservation of snow-dependent species, which requires characterization of suitable habitat under current and future climates. We use the wolverine (Gulo gulo) as an example species and investigate potential habitat based on the depth and extent of spring snowpack within four National Park units with proposed wolverine reintroduction programs. Our estimates of change in spring snowpack conditions under current and future climates are consistent with recent studies that generally predict declining snowpack. However, model development at a finer scale and incorporation of cold-air pooling increased the persistence of April 1st snowpack. More specifically, incorporation of cold-air pooling into future climate projections increased April 1st snowpack by 6.5% when spatially averaged over the study region and the trajectory of declining April 1st snowpack reverses at mid-elevations where snow pack losses are mitigated by topographic shading and cold-air pooling. Under future climates with sustained or increased precipitation, our results indicate a high likelihood for the persistence of late spring snowpack at elevations above approximately 2,800 m and identify potential climate refugia sites for snow-dependent species at mid-elevations, where significant topographic shading and cold-air pooling potential exist. PMID:25188379

Incorporating cold-air pooling into downscaled climate models increases potential refugia for snow-dependent species within the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion, CA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtis, Jennifer A.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Hudgens, Brian; Boydston, Erin E.; Young, Julie K.

2014-01-01

We present a unique water-balance approach for modeling snowpack under historic, current and future climates throughout the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion. Our methodology uses a finer scale (270 m) than previous regional studies and incorporates cold-air pooling, an atmospheric process that sustains cooler temperatures in topographic depressions thereby mitigating snowmelt. Our results are intended to support management and conservation of snow-dependent species, which requires characterization of suitable habitat under current and future climates. We use the wolverine (Gulo gulo) as an example species and investigate potential habitat based on the depth and extent of spring snowpack within four National Park units with proposed wolverine reintroduction programs. Our estimates of change in spring snowpack conditions under current and future climates are consistent with recent studies that generally predict declining snowpack. However, model development at a finer scale and incorporation of cold-air pooling increased the persistence of April 1st snowpack. More specifically, incorporation of cold-air pooling into future climate projections increased April 1st snowpack by 6.5% when spatially averaged over the study region and the trajectory of declining April 1st snowpack reverses at mid-elevations where snow pack losses are mitigated by topographic shading and cold-air pooling. Under future climates with sustained or increased precipitation, our results indicate a high likelihood for the persistence of late spring snowpack at elevations above approximately 2,800 m and identify potential climate refugia sites for snow-dependent species at mid-elevations, where significant topographic shading and cold-air pooling potential exist.

The cold climate geomorphology of the Eastern Cape Drakensberg: A reevaluation of past climatic conditions during the last glacial cycle in Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, S. C.; Barrows, T. T.; Telfer, M. W.; Fifield, L. K.

2017-02-01

Southern Africa is located in a unique setting for investigating past cold climate geomorphology over glacial-interglacial timescales. It lies at the junction of three of the world's major oceans and is affected by subtropical and temperate circulation systems, therefore recording changes in Southern Hemisphere circulation patterns. Cold climate landforms are very sensitive to changes in climate and thus provide an opportunity to investigate past changes in this region. The proposed existence of glaciers in the high Eastern Cape Drakensberg mountains, together with possible rock glaciers, has led to the suggestion that temperatures in this region were as much as 10-17 °C lower than present. Such large temperature depressions are inconsistent with many other palaeoclimatic proxies in Southern Africa. This paper presents new field observations and cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages from putative cold climate landforms. We discuss alternative interpretations for the formation of the landforms and confirm that glaciers were absent in the Eastern Cape Drakensberg during the last glaciation. However, we find widespread evidence for periglacial activity down to an elevation of 1700 m asl, as illustrated by extensive solifluction deposits, blockstreams, and stone garlands. These periglacial deposits suggest that the climate was significantly colder ( 6 °C) during the Last Glacial Maximum, in keeping with other climate proxy records from the region, but not cold enough to initiate or sustain glaciers or rock glaciers.

Climate and Creativity: Cold and Heat Trigger Invention and Innovation in Richer Populations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van de Vliert, Evert; Murray, Damian R.

2018-01-01

Nobel laureates, technological pioneers, and innovative entrepreneurs are unequally distributed across the globe. Their density increases in regions toward the North Pole, toward the South Pole, and very close to the Equator. This geographic anomaly led us to explore whether stressful demands of climatic cold and climatic heat (imposed…

Is "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" A Fingerprint Pattern of Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M. P.; Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.

2015-12-01

Cold winters and cold waves have recently occurred in Europe, central Asia and the Midwest to eastern United States, even as global mean temperatures set record highs and Arctic amplification of surface warming continued. Since 1979, Central Asia winter temperatures have in fact declined. Conjecture has it that more cold extremes over the mid-latitude continents should occur due to global warming and the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss. A Northern Hemisphere temperature signal termed the "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" pattern has thus been surmised. Here we use a multi-model approach to test the hypothesis that such a pattern is indeed symptomatic of climate change. Diagnosis of a large model ensemble of historical climate simulations shows some individual realizations to yield cooling trends over Central Asia, but importantly the vast majority show warming. The observed cooling has thus likely been a low probability state of internal variability, not a fingerprint of forced climate change. We show that daily temperature variations over continents decline in winter due to global warming, and cold waves become less likely. This is partly related to diminution of Arctic cold air reservoirs due to warming-induced sea ice loss. Nonetheless, we find some evidence and present a physical basis that Arctic sea ice loss alone can induce a winter cooling over Central Asia, though with a magnitude that is appreciably smaller than the overall radiative-forced warming signal. Our results support the argument that recent cooling trends over central Asia, and cold extreme events over the winter continents, have principally resulted from atmospheric internal variability and have been neither a forced response to Arctic seas ice loss nor a symptom of global warming. The paradigm of climate change is thus better expressed as "Warm Arctic, Warm Continent" for the NH winter.

Preventing cold-related morbidity and mortality in a changing climate

PubMed Central

Conlon, Kathryn C; Rajkovich, Nicholas B; White-Newsome, Jalonne L; Larsen, Larissa; Neill, Marie S O

2011-01-01

Winter weather patterns are anticipated to become more variable with increasing average global temperatures. Research shows that excess morbidity and mortality occurs during cold weather periods. We critically reviewed evidence relating temperature variability, health outcomes, and adaptation strategies to cold weather. Health outcomes included cardiovascular-, respiratory-, cerebrovascular-, and all-cause morbidity and mortality. Individual and contextual risk factors were assessed to highlight associations between individual- and neighborhood- level characteristics that contribute to a person’s vulnerability to variability in cold weather events. Epidemiologic studies indicate that the populations most vulnerable to variations in cold winter weather are the elderly, rural and, generally, populations living in moderate winter climates. Fortunately, cold-related morbidity and mortality are preventable and strategies exist for protecting populations from these adverse health outcomes. We present a range of adaptation strategies that can be implemented at the individual, building, and neighborhood level to protect vulnerable populations from cold-related morbidity and mortality. The existing research justifies the need for increased outreach to individuals and communities for education on protective adaptations in cold weather. We propose that future climate change adaptation research couple building energy and thermal comfort models with epidemiological data to evaluate and quantify the impacts of adaptation strategies. PMID:21592693

Formation of Valley Networks in a Cold and Icy Early Mars Climate: Predictions for Erosion Rates and Channel Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassanelli, J.

2017-12-01

Mars is host to a diverse array of valley networks, systems of linear-to-sinuous depressions which are widely distributed across the surface and which exhibit branching patterns similar to the dendritic drainage patterns of terrestrial fluvial systems. Characteristics of the valley networks are indicative of an origin by fluvial activity, providing among the most compelling evidence for the past presence of flowing liquid water on the surface of Mars. Stratigraphic and crater age dating techniques suggest that the formation of the valley networks occurred predominantly during the early geologic history of Mars ( 3.7 Ga). However, whether the valley networks formed predominantly by rainfall in a relatively warm and wet early Mars climate, or by snowmelt and episodic rainfall in an ambient cold and icy climate, remains disputed. Understanding the formative environment of the valley networks will help distinguish between these warm and cold end-member early Mars climate models. Here we test a conceptual model for channel incision and evolution under cold and icy conditions with a substrate characterized by the presence of an ice-free dry active layer and subjacent ice-cemented regolith, similar to that found in the Antarctic McMurdo Dry Valleys. We implement numerical thermal models, quantitative erosion and transport estimates, and morphometric analyses in order to outline predictions for (1) the precise nature and structure of the substrate, (2) fluvial erosion/incision rates, and (3) channel morphology. Model predictions are compared against morphologic and morphometric observational data to evaluate consistency with the assumed cold climate scenario. In the cold climate scenario, the substrate is predicted to be characterized by a kilometers-thick globally-continuous cryosphere below a 50-100 meter thick desiccated ice-free zone. Initial results suggest that, with the predicted substrate structure, fluvial channel erosion and morphology in a cold early Mars climate exposed to episodic high temperatures will not differ significantly from that in a warm climate. The fundamentally different hydrologic conditions are likely to influence other aspects of valley network morphology and morphometry including: drainage density, drainage pattern, and stream orders.

ASSESSMENT OF COLD-CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH PRIORITIES

EPA Science Inventory

Since its inception, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has maintained a research program in Alaska to address environmental problems unique to cold climates. The wide range of natural resource developments now being considered pose an equally wide range of possible environ...

DEVELOPMENT OF COLD CLIMATE HEAT PUMP USING TWO-STAGE COMPRESSION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, Bo; Rice, C Keith; Abdelaziz, Omar

2015-01-01

This paper uses a well-regarded, hardware based heat pump system model to investigate a two-stage economizing cycle for cold climate heat pump applications. The two-stage compression cycle has two variable-speed compressors. The high stage compressor was modelled using a compressor map, and the low stage compressor was experimentally studied using calorimeter testing. A single-stage heat pump system was modelled as the baseline. The system performance predictions are compared between the two-stage and single-stage systems. Special considerations for designing a cold climate heat pump are addressed at both the system and component levels.

Estimating and projecting the effect of cold waves on mortality in 209 US cities.

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Shi, Liuhua; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D

2016-09-01

The frequency, duration, and intensity of cold waves are expected to decrease in the near future under the changing climate. However, there is a lack of understanding on future mortality related to cold waves. The present study conducted a large-scale national projection to estimate future mortality attributable to cold waves during 1960-2050 in 209 US cities. Cold waves were defined as two, three, or at least four consecutive days with daily temperature lower than the 5th percentile of temperatures in each city. The lingering period of a cold wave was defined as the non-cold wave days within seven days following that cold wave period. First, with 168million residents in 209 US cities during 1962-2006, we fitted over-dispersed Poisson regressions to estimate the immediate and lingering effects of cold waves on mortality and tested if the associations were modified by the duration of cold waves, the intensity of cold waves, and mean winter temperature (MWT). Then we projected future mortality related to cold waves using 20 downscaled climate models. Here we show that the cold waves (both immediate and lingering) were associated with an increased but small risk of mortality. The associations varied substantially across climate regions. The risk increased with the duration and intensity of cold waves but decreased with MWT. The projected mortality related to cold waves would decrease from 1960 to 2050. Such a decrease, however, is small and may not be able to offset the potential increase in heat-related deaths if the adaptation to heat is not adequate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Varying selection differential throughout the climatic range of Norway spruce in Central Europe.

PubMed

Kapeller, Stefan; Dieckmann, Ulf; Schueler, Silvio

2017-01-01

Predicting species distribution changes in global warming requires an understanding of how climatic constraints shape the genetic variation of adaptive traits and force local adaptations. To understand the genetic capacity of Norway spruce populations in Central Europe, we analyzed the variation in tree heights at the juvenile stage in common garden experiments established from the species' warm-dry to cold-moist distribution limits. We report the following findings: First, 47% of the total tree height variation at trial sites is attributable to the tree populations irrespective of site climate. Second, tree height variation within populations is higher at cold-moist trial sites than at warm-dry sites and higher within populations originating from cold-moist habitats than from warm-dry habitats. Third, for tree ages of 7-15 years, the variation within populations increases at cold-moist trial sites, whereas it remains constant at warm-dry sites. Fourth, tree height distributions are right-skewed at cold-moist trial sites, whereas they are nonskewed, but platykurtic at warm-dry sites. Our results suggest that in cold environments, climatic conditions impose stronger selection and probably restrict the distribution of spruce, whereas at the warm distribution limit, the species' realized niche might rather be controlled by external drivers, for example, forest insects.

The 1430s: a cold period of extraordinary internal climate variability during the early Spörer Minimum with social and economic impacts in north-western and central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camenisch, Chantal; Keller, Kathrin M.; Salvisberg, Melanie; Amann, Benjamin; Bauch, Martin; Blumer, Sandro; Brázdil, Rudolf; Brönnimann, Stefan; Büntgen, Ulf; Campbell, Bruce M. S.; Fernández-Donado, Laura; Fleitmann, Dominik; Glaser, Rüdiger; González-Rouco, Fidel; Grosjean, Martin; Hoffmann, Richard C.; Huhtamaa, Heli; Joos, Fortunat; Kiss, Andrea; Kotyza, Oldřich; Lehner, Flavio; Luterbacher, Jürg; Maughan, Nicolas; Neukom, Raphael; Novy, Theresa; Pribyl, Kathleen; Raible, Christoph C.; Riemann, Dirk; Schuh, Maximilian; Slavin, Philip; Werner, Johannes P.; Wetter, Oliver

2016-12-01

Changes in climate affected human societies throughout the last millennium. While European cold periods in the 17th and 18th century have been assessed in detail, earlier cold periods received much less attention due to sparse information available. New evidence from proxy archives, historical documentary sources and climate model simulations permit us to provide an interdisciplinary, systematic assessment of an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century. Our assessment includes the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping extreme climatic conditions and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in north-western and central Europe.Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and anthropogenic archives indicate that the 1430s were the coldest decade in north-western and central Europe in the 15th century. This decade is characterised by cold winters and average to warm summers resulting in a strong seasonal cycle in temperature. Results from comprehensive climate models indicate consistently that these conditions occurred by chance due to the partly chaotic internal variability within the climate system. External forcing like volcanic eruptions tends to reduce simulated temperature seasonality and cannot explain the reconstructions. The strong seasonal cycle in temperature reduced food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis and a famine in parts of Europe. Societies were not prepared to cope with failing markets and interrupted trade routes. In response to the crisis, authorities implemented numerous measures of supply policy and adaptation such as the installation of grain storage capacities to be prepared for future food production shortfalls.

Durability and smart condition assessment of ultra-high performance concrete in cold climates.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-31

The goals of this study were to develop ecological ultra-high performance concrete (UHPC) with local materials and supplementary cementitious materials and to evaluate the long-term performance of UHPC in cold climates using effective mechanical test...

[Effect of climatic mean value change on the evaluation result of rice delayed cold damage in Liaoning Province, Northeast China].

PubMed

Ji, Rui-peng; Yu, Wen-ying; Wu, Jin-wen; Feng, Rui; Zhang, Yu-shu

2015-06-01

The anomaly of mean temperature summation from May to September (ΔT5-9) was commonly used to assess delayed cold damage of rice in Northeast China, but whether the change of statistics years for climatic mean value (ΣT5-9) would affect the, evaluation results of Liaoning rice under cold damage needed to be further studied. By using the meteorological industry standard of the People's Republic of China "technical standard on rice cold damage evaluation" (QX/T 182- 2013) and the supplemental indices (ΔT5-9), the index (ΣT5-9) was calculated in four periods 1961-1990 (S1), 1971-2000 (S2), 1981-2010 (S3) and 1961-2010 (S4), and the spatial and temporal changes of cold damage in Liaoning Province were analyzed based on the ratio between cold damage stations and total stations (IOC) and the occurrence frequency. The results showed that the heat condition (Σ T5-9) in rice growing season increased obviously and the spatial and temporal changes were significant from 1961 to 2010. The original meteorological index of rice cold damage was improved by using quadratic polynomial model. The identification results were similar between S2 and S4. The variation coefficient of IOC in S3 was lower than that of the other three. Compared with the typical rice yield reduction years, the evaluation results accorded better with the actual situation in evaluating the rice delayed cold damage in Liaoning during study period by using the S3 climate mean value. The results could provide evidence for accurately evaluating the variation of rice cold damage in spatial and temporal distribution in Liaoning Province under the background of global climate change.

Transitions between multiple equilibria of paleo climate: a glimpse in to the dynamics of abrupt climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, David; Marshall, John; Ito, Takamitsu; McGee, David; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

2017-04-01

The dynamics regulating large climatic transitions such as glacial-interglacial cycles or DO events remains a puzzle. Forcings behind these transitions are not robustly identified and potential candidates (e.g. Milankovitch cycles, freshwater perturbations) often appear too weak to explain such dramatic transitions. A potential solution to this long-standing puzzle is that Earth's climate is endowed with multiple equilibrium states of global extent. Such states are commonly found in low-order or conceptual climate models, but it is unclear whether a system as complex as Earth's climate can sustain multiple equilibrium states. Here we report that multiple equilibrium states of the climate system are also possible in a complex, fully dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice GCM with idealized Earth-like geometry, resolved weather systems and a hydrological cycle. In our model, two equilibrium states coexist for the same parameters and external forcings: a Warm climate with a small Northern hemisphere sea ice cap and a large southern one and a Cold climate with large ice caps at both poles. The dynamical states of the Warm and Cold solutions exhibit striking similarities with our present-day climate and the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum, respectively. A carbon cycle model driven by the two dynamical states produces an atmospheric pCO2 draw-down of about 110 pm between the Warm and Cold states, close to Glacial-Interglacial differences found in ice cores. Mechanism controlling the existence of the multiple states and changes in the atmospheric CO2 will be briefly presented. Finally we willdescribe transition experiments from the Cold to the Warm state, focusing on the lead-lags in the system, notably between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres climates.

Forecasting European cold waves based on subsampling strategies of CMIP5 and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordero-Llana, Laura; Braconnot, Pascale; Vautard, Robert; Vrac, Mathieu; Jezequel, Aglae

2016-04-01

Forecasting future extreme events under the present changing climate represents a difficult task. Currently there are a large number of ensembles of simulations for climate projections that take in account different models and scenarios. However, there is a need for reducing the size of the ensemble to make the interpretation of these simulations more manageable for impact studies or climate risk assessment. This can be achieved by developing subsampling strategies to identify a limited number of simulations that best represent the ensemble. In this study, cold waves are chosen to test different approaches for subsampling available simulations. The definition of cold waves depends on the criteria used, but they are generally defined using a minimum temperature threshold, the duration of the cold spell as well as their geographical extend. These climate indicators are not universal, highlighting the difficulty of directly comparing different studies. As part of the of the CLIPC European project, we use daily surface temperature data obtained from CMIP5 outputs as well as Euro-CORDEX simulations to predict future cold waves events in Europe. From these simulations a clustering method is applied to minimise the number of ensembles required. Furthermore, we analyse the different uncertainties that arise from the different model characteristics and definitions of climate indicators. Finally, we will test if the same subsampling strategy can be used for different climate indicators. This will facilitate the use of the subsampling results for a wide number of impact assessment studies.

Warm summers during the Younger Dryas cold reversal.

PubMed

Schenk, Frederik; Väliranta, Minna; Muschitiello, Francesco; Tarasov, Lev; Heikkilä, Maija; Björck, Svante; Brandefelt, Jenny; Johansson, Arne V; Näslund, Jens-Ove; Wohlfarth, Barbara

2018-04-24

The Younger Dryas (YD) cold reversal interrupts the warming climate of the deglaciation with global climatic impacts. The sudden cooling is typically linked to an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in response to meltwater discharges from ice sheets. However, inconsistencies regarding the YD-response of European summer temperatures have cast doubt whether the concept provides a sufficient explanation. Here we present results from a high-resolution global climate simulation together with a new July temperature compilation based on plant indicator species and show that European summers remain warm during the YD. Our climate simulation provides robust physical evidence that atmospheric blocking of cold westerly winds over Fennoscandia is a key mechanism counteracting the cooling impact of an AMOC-slowdown during summer. Despite the persistence of short warm summers, the YD is dominated by a shift to a continental climate with extreme winter to spring cooling and short growing seasons.

Modeling Shasta Dam operations to regulate temperatures for Chinook salmon under extreme climate and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, A.; Saito, L.; Sapin, J. R.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hanna, R. B.; Kauneckis, D. L.

2014-12-01

Chinook salmon populations have declined significantly after the construction of Shasta Dam on the Sacramento River in 1945 prevented them from spawning in the cold waters upstream. In 1994, the winter-run Chinook were listed under the Endangered Species Act and 3 years later the US Bureau of Reclamation began operating a temperature control device (TCD) on the dam that allows for selective withdrawal for downstream temperature control to promote salmon spawning while also maximizing power generation. However, dam operators are responsible to other interests that depend on the reservoir for water such as agriculture, municipalities, industry, and recreation. An increase in temperatures due to climate change may place additional strain on the ability of dam operations to maintain spawning habitat for salmon downstream of the dam. We examined the capability of Shasta Dam to regulate downstream temperatures under extreme climates and climate change by using stochastically generated streamflow, stream temperature, and weather inputs with a two-dimensional CE-QUAL-W2 model under several operational options. Operation performance was evaluated using degree days and cold pool volume (volume of water below a temperature threshold). Model results indicated that a generalized operations release schedule, in which release elevations varied over the year to match downstream temperature targets, performed best overall in meeting temperature targets while preserving cold pool volume. Releasing all water out the bottom throughout the year tended to meet temperature targets at the expense of depleting the cold pool, and releasing all water out uppermost gates preserved the cold pool, but released water that was too warm during the critical spawning period. With higher air temperatures due to climate change, both degree day and cold pool volume metrics were worse than baseline conditions, which suggests that Chinook salmon may be more negatively affected under climate change.

Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5

PubMed Central

Anderson, G.B.; Jones, B.; McGinnis, S.A.; Sanderson, B.

2015-01-01

Previous studies examining future changes in heat/cold waves using climate model ensembles have been limited to grid cell-average quantities. Here, we make use of an urban parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that represents the urban heat island effect, which can exacerbate extreme heat but may ameliorate extreme cold in urban relative to rural areas. Heat/cold wave characteristics are derived for U.S. regions from a bias-corrected CESM 30-member ensemble for climate outcomes driven by the RCP8.5 forcing scenario and a 15-member ensemble driven by RCP4.5. Significant differences are found between urban and grid cell-average heat/cold wave characteristics. Most notably, urban heat waves for 1981–2005 are more intense than grid cell-average by 2.1°C (southeast) to 4.6°C (southwest), while cold waves are less intense. We assess the avoided climate impacts of urban heat/cold waves in 2061–2080 when following the lower forcing scenario. Urban heat wave days per year increase from 6 in 1981–2005 to up to 92 (southeast) in RCP8.5. Following RCP4.5 reduces heat wave days by about 50%. Large avoided impacts are demonstrated for individual communities; e.g., the longest heat wave for Houston in RCP4.5 is 38 days while in RCP8.5 there is one heat wave per year that is longer than a month with some lasting the entire summer. Heat waves also start later in the season in RCP4.5 (earliest are in early May) than RCP8.5 (mid-April), compared to 1981–2005 (late May). In some communities, cold wave events decrease from 2 per year for 1981–2005 to one-in-five year events in RCP4.5 and one-in-ten year events in RCP8.5. PMID:29520121

Reevaluating geographic variation in life-history traits of a widespread Nearctic amphibian

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davenport, Jon M.; Hossack, Blake R.

2016-01-01

Animals from cold environments are usually larger than animals from warm environments, which often produce clines in body size. Because variation in body size can lead to trade-offs between growth and reproduction, life-history traits should also vary across climatic gradients. To determine if life-history traits of wood frogs Rana sylvatica vary with climate, we examined female and male body length, clutch size, and ovum size from 37 locations across an unprecedented 32° of latitude. In conflict with recent research, body size, and ovum size decreased in cold climates and at higher latitudes. Clutch size did not vary with climate or latitude, but reproductive effort (clutch size:female size) did, suggesting selection for a life-history traits that favors maximizing propagule number over propagule size in cold climates. With accelerating climate change that will expose populations to novel environmental conditions, it is important to identify the limits of adaptation, which can be informed by greater understanding of variation in life-history traits.

A warm or a cold early Earth? New insights from a 3-D climate-carbon model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charnay, Benjamin; Le Hir, Guillaume; Fluteau, Frédéric; Forget, François; Catling, David C.

2017-09-01

Oxygen isotopes in marine cherts have been used to infer hot oceans during the Archean with temperatures between 60 °C (333 K) and 80 °C (353 K). Such climates are challenging for the early Earth warmed by the faint young Sun. The interpretation of the data has therefore been controversial. 1D climate modeling inferred that such hot climates would require very high levels of CO2 (2-6 bars). Previous carbon cycle modeling concluded that such stable hot climates were impossible and that the carbon cycle should lead to cold climates during the Hadean and the Archean. Here, we revisit the climate and carbon cycle of the early Earth at 3.8 Ga using a 3D climate-carbon model. We find that CO2 partial pressures of around 1 bar could have produced hot climates given a low land fraction and cloud feedback effects. However, such high CO2 partial pressures should not have been stable because of the weathering of terrestrial and oceanic basalts, producing an efficient stabilizing feedback. Moreover, the weathering of impact ejecta during the Late Heavy Bombardment (LHB) would have strongly reduced the CO2 partial pressure leading to cold climates and potentially snowball Earth events after large impacts. Our results therefore favor cold or temperate climates with global mean temperatures between around 8 °C (281 K) and 30 °C (303 K) and with 0.1-0.36 bar of CO2 for the late Hadean and early Archean. Finally, our model suggests that the carbon cycle was efficient for preserving clement conditions on the early Earth without necessarily requiring any other greenhouse gas or warming process.

Thermal perception thresholds among workers in a cold climate.

PubMed

Burström, Lage; Björ, Bodil; Nilsson, Tohr; Pettersson, Hans; Rödin, Ingemar; Wahlström, Jens

2017-10-01

To investigate whether exposure to cold could influence the thermal perception thresholds in a working population. This cross-sectional study was comprised of 251 males and females and was carried out at two mines in the northern part of Norway and Sweden. The testing included a baseline questionnaire, a clinical examination and measurements of thermal perception thresholds, on both hands, the index (Digit 2) and little (Digit 5) fingers, for heat and cold. The thermal perception thresholds were affected by age, gender and test site. The thresholds were impaired by experiences of frostbite in the fingers and the use of medication that potentially could affect neurosensory functions. No differences were found between the calculated normative values for these workers and those in other comparative investigations conducted in warmer climates. The study provided no support for the hypothesis that living and working in cold climate will lead to impaired thermal perception thresholds. Exposure to cold that had caused localized damage in the form of frostbite was shown to lead to impaired thermal perception.

Characterization of a rapid climate shift at the MIS 8/7 transition in central Spain (Valdocarros II, Autonomous Region of Madrid) by means of the herpetological assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blain, Hugues-Alexandre; Panera, Joaquin; Uribelarrea, David; Rubio-Jara, Susana; Pérez-González, Alfredo

2012-07-01

Climate instability with high-amplitude and rapid shifts during the Middle Pleistocene is well known from pollen records and deep-ocean sediment cores. Although poorly correlatable with such long climate/environment records, the successive fossil amphibian and reptile assemblages from the Middle Pleistocene site of Valdocarros II (Autonomous Region of Madrid, central Spain) provide a unique opportunity to characterize the climatic and environmental features of such rapid (certainly less than 1000 years) shifts from cold to warm conditions in a terrestrial sequence. As the amphibians and reptiles do not differ at species level from the extant herpetofauna of the Iberian Peninsula, they can contribute to the reconstruction of the landscape and climate. In this paper, the mutual climatic range and habitat weighting methods are applied to the herpetofaunistic assemblages in order to estimate quantitative data. The difference in mean annual temperature between "cold" and "warm" periods is estimated at 3.2 °C, with a greater increase in temperature during winter (+3 °C) than during summer (+1 °C). During "cold" periods the climate was more Oceanic (although preserving some dryness during the summers), whereas during "warm" periods the climate became Mediterranean (with mild winters and a long period of dryness in the summer and early autumn). Though higher during cold periods, the continentality (or atmospheric temperature range) remained roughly similar, in accordance with the geographical location of the site in the centre of the Iberian Peninsula. A greater amount of open landscape occurred during "cold" periods, whereas during "warm" periods the wooded areas expanded from 20% to 40% of the landscape surface. Such climatic/environmental changes, together with the numeric datings of the site, suggest that this shift may correspond to the transition from MIS 8 to MIS 7, also called Termination III.

Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?

PubMed

Kinney, Patrick L; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Tertre, Alain Le; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

2015-06-01

Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

Winter season mortality: will climate warming bring benefits?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinney, Patrick L.; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Le Tertre, Alain; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

2015-06-01

Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

The Influence of the Green River Lake System on the Local Climate During the Early Eocene Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elguindi, N.; Thrasher, B.; Sloan, L. C.

2006-12-01

Several modeling efforts have attempted to reproduce the climate of the early Eocene North America. However when compared to proxy data, General Circulation Models (GCMs) tend to produce a large-scale cold-bias. Although higher resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that are able to resolve many of the sub-GCM scale forcings improve this cold bias, RCMs are still unable to reproduce the warm climate of the Eocene. From geologic data, we know that the greater Green River and the Uinta basins were intermontane basins with a large lake system during portions of the Eocene. We speculate that the lack of presence of these lakes in previous modeling studies may explain part of the persistent cold-bias of GCMs and RCMs. In this study, we utilize a regional climate model coupled with a 1D-lake model in an attempt to reduce the uncertainties and biases associated with climate simulations over Eocene western North American. Specifically, we include the Green River Lake system in our RCM simulation and compare climates with and without lakes to proxy data.

Slow climate velocities of mountain streams portend their role as refugia for cold-water biodiversity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Isaak, Daniel J.; Young, Michael K; Luce, Charles H; Hostetler, Steven W.; Wengerd, Seth J.; Peterson, Erin E.; Ver Hoef, Jay; Groce, Matthew C.; Horan, Dona L.; Nagel, David E.

2016-01-01

The imminent demise of montane species is a recurrent theme in the climate change literature, particularly for aquatic species that are constrained to networks and elevational rather than latitudinal retreat as temperatures increase. Predictions of widespread species losses, however, have yet to be fulfilled despite decades of climate change, suggesting that trends are much weaker than anticipated and may be too subtle for detection given the widespread use of sparse water temperature datasets or imprecise surrogates like elevation and air temperature. Through application of large water-temperature databases evaluated for sensitivity to historical air-temperature variability and computationally interpolated to provide high-resolution thermal habitat information for a 222,000-km network, we estimate a less dire thermal plight for cold-water species within mountains of the northwestern United States. Stream warming rates and climate velocities were both relatively low for 1968–2011 (average warming rate = 0.101 °C/decade; median velocity = 1.07 km/decade) when air temperatures warmed at 0.21 °C/decade. Many cold-water vertebrate species occurred in a subset of the network characterized by low climate velocities, and three native species of conservation concern occurred in extremely cold, slow velocity environments (0.33–0.48 km/decade). Examination of aggressive warming scenarios indicated that although network climate velocities could increase, they remain low in headwaters because of strong local temperature gradients associated with topographic controls. Better information about changing hydrology and disturbance regimes is needed to complement these results, but rather than being climatic cul-de-sacs, many mountain streams appear poised to be redoubts for cold-water biodiversity this century.

Slow climate velocities of mountain streams portend their role as refugia for cold-water biodiversity

PubMed Central

Isaak, Daniel J.; Young, Michael K.; Luce, Charles H.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Wenger, Seth J.; Peterson, Erin E.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Groce, Matthew C.; Horan, Dona L.; Nagel, David E.

2016-01-01

The imminent demise of montane species is a recurrent theme in the climate change literature, particularly for aquatic species that are constrained to networks and elevational rather than latitudinal retreat as temperatures increase. Predictions of widespread species losses, however, have yet to be fulfilled despite decades of climate change, suggesting that trends are much weaker than anticipated and may be too subtle for detection given the widespread use of sparse water temperature datasets or imprecise surrogates like elevation and air temperature. Through application of large water-temperature databases evaluated for sensitivity to historical air-temperature variability and computationally interpolated to provide high-resolution thermal habitat information for a 222,000-km network, we estimate a less dire thermal plight for cold-water species within mountains of the northwestern United States. Stream warming rates and climate velocities were both relatively low for 1968–2011 (average warming rate = 0.101 °C/decade; median velocity = 1.07 km/decade) when air temperatures warmed at 0.21 °C/decade. Many cold-water vertebrate species occurred in a subset of the network characterized by low climate velocities, and three native species of conservation concern occurred in extremely cold, slow velocity environments (0.33–0.48 km/decade). Examination of aggressive warming scenarios indicated that although network climate velocities could increase, they remain low in headwaters because of strong local temperature gradients associated with topographic controls. Better information about changing hydrology and disturbance regimes is needed to complement these results, but rather than being climatic cul-de-sacs, many mountain streams appear poised to be redoubts for cold-water biodiversity this century. PMID:27044091

Climate, invasive species and land use drive population dynamics of a cold-water specialist

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kovach, Ryan P.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Whited, Diane C.; Schmetterling, David A.; Dux, Andrew M; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2017-01-01

Climate change is an additional stressor in a complex suite of threats facing freshwater biodiversity, particularly for cold-water fishes. Research addressing the consequences of climate change on cold-water fish has generally focused on temperature limits defining spatial distributions, largely ignoring how climatic variation influences population dynamics in the context of other existing stressors.We used long-term data from 92 populations of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus – one of North America's most cold-adapted fishes – to quantify additive and interactive effects of climate, invasive species and land use on population dynamics (abundance, variability and growth rate).Populations were generally depressed, more variable and declining where spawning and rearing stream habitat was limited, invasive species and land use were prevalent and stream temperatures were highest. Increasing stream temperature acted additively and independently, whereas land use and invasive species had additive and interactive effects (i.e. the impact of one stressor depended on exposure to the other stressor).Most (58%–78%) of the explained variation in population dynamics was attributed to the presence of invasive species, differences in life history and management actions in foraging habitats in rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Although invasive fishes had strong negative effects on populations in foraging habitats, proactive control programmes appeared to effectively temper their negative impact.Synthesis and applications. Long-term demographic data emphasize that climate warming will exacerbate imperilment of cold-water specialists like bull trout, yet other stressors – especially invasive fishes – are immediate threats that can be addressed by proactive management actions. Therefore, climate-adaptation strategies for freshwater biodiversity should consider existing abiotic and biotic stressors, some of which provide potential and realized opportunity for conservation of freshwater biodiversity in a warming world.

Final report on a cold climate permeable interlocking concrete pavement test facility at the University of New Hampshire Stormwater Center.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-05-01

University of New Hampshire Stormwater Center (UNHSC) completed a two year field verification study of a permeable interlocking concrete pavement (PICP) stormwater management system. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the cold climate function...

Performance of a Battery Electric Vehicle in the Cold Climate and Hilly Terrain of Vermont

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-12-23

The goal of this research project was to determine the performance of a battery electric vehicle (BEV) in the cold climate and hilly terrain of Vermont. For this study, a 2005 Toyota Echo was converted from an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle...

Impact of cold climates on vehicle emissions: the cold start air toxics pulse : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-09-21

This project measured cold start emissions from four vehicles in winter using fast response instrumentation to accurately measure the : time variation of the cold start emission pulse. Seventeen successful tests were conducted over a temperature rang...

Sporo-pollen assemblage and paleoclimate events in shelf area of the southern Yellow Sea since 15 ka B. P.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Guanglan; Han, Yousong; Wang, Shaoqing; Wang, Zhenyan

2004-03-01

Based on the authors’ 1986 to 1994 sporo-pollen assemblage analysis in the southern Yellow Sea area, data from 3 main cores were studied in combination with14C, palaeomagnetic and thermoluminescence data. The evolution of the paleoclimate environments in the southern Yellow Sea since 15ka B. P. was revealed that, in deglaciation of the last glacial period, the climate of late glaciation transformed into that of postglaciation, accompanied by a series of violent climate fluctuations. These evolution events happened in a global climate background and related to the geographic changes in eastern China. We distinguished three short-term cooling events and two warming events. Among them, the sporo-pollen assemblage of subzone A1 showed some cold climate features indicating that a cooling event occurred at about 15-14ka. B. P. in early deglaciation. This subzone corresponds to the Oldest Dryas. In subzone A3, many drought-enduring herbal pollens and some few pollens of cold-resistant Picea, Abies, etc. were found, which indicated that a cooling event, with cold and arid climate, occurred at about 12-11ka. B. P. in late deglaciation. This subzone corresponds to the Younger Dryas. The sporo-pollen assemblage of zone B showed warm and arid climate features in postglaciation. Although the assemblage of subzone B2 indicated a cold and arid climate environment, the development of flora in subzone B2 climate was less cold than that in A3. Subzone B2 indicated a cooling event which occurred at about 9ka B. P. in early olocene. Subzone A2, with some distinct differences from subzone A1 and A3, indicated a warming event which occurred at 14-13ka. B.P. and should correspond to a warming fluctuation. The sporo-pollen assemblage of zone C showed features of warn-moist flora and climate, and indicated a warming event which universally occurred along the coast of eastern China at 8-3 ka B. P. in middle Holocene, and its duration was longer than that of any climate events mentioned above. This period was climatic optimum and belonged to an altithermal period in postglaciation.

Heat or Cold: Which One Exerts Greater Deleterious Effects on Health in a Basin Climate City? Impact of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Chengdu, China.

PubMed

Cui, Yan; Yin, Fei; Deng, Ying; Volinn, Ernest; Chen, Fei; Ji, Kui; Zeng, Jing; Zhao, Xing; Li, Xiaosong

2016-12-10

Background : Although studies from many countries have estimated the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, few have compared the relative impacts of heat and cold on health, especially in basin climate cities. We aimed to quantify the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, and to compare the contributions of heat and cold in a large basin climate city, i.e., Chengdu (Sichuan Province, China); Methods : We estimated the temperature-mortality association with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with a maximum lag-time of 21 days while controlling for long time trends and day of week. We calculated the mortality risk attributable to heat and cold, which were defined as temperatures above and below an "optimum temperature" that corresponded to the point of minimum mortality. In addition, we explored effects of individual characteristics; Results : The analysis provides estimates of the overall mortality burden attributable to temperature, and then computes the components attributable to heat and cold. Overall, the total fraction of deaths caused by both heat and cold was 10.93% (95%CI: 7.99%-13.65%). Taken separately, cold was responsible for most of the burden (estimate 9.96%, 95%CI: 6.90%-12.81%), while the fraction attributable to heat was relatively small (estimate 0.97%, 95%CI: 0.46%-2.35%). The attributable risk (AR) of respiratory diseases was higher (19.69%, 95%CI: 14.45%-24.24%) than that of cardiovascular diseases (11.40%, 95%CI: 6.29%-16.01%); Conclusions : In Chengdu, temperature was responsible for a substantial fraction of deaths, with cold responsible for a higher proportion of deaths than heat. Respiratory diseases exert a larger effect on death than other diseases especially on cold days. There is potential to reduce respiratory-associated mortality especially among the aged population in basin climate cities when the temperature deviates beneath the optimum. The result may help to comprehensively assess the impact of ambient temperature in basin cities, and further facilitate an appropriate estimate of the health consequences of various climate-change scenarios.

Heat or Cold: Which One Exerts Greater Deleterious Effects on Health in a Basin Climate City? Impact of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Chengdu, China

PubMed Central

Cui, Yan; Yin, Fei; Deng, Ying; Volinn, Ernest; Chen, Fei; Ji, Kui; Zeng, Jing; Zhao, Xing; Li, Xiaosong

2016-01-01

Background: Although studies from many countries have estimated the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, few have compared the relative impacts of heat and cold on health, especially in basin climate cities. We aimed to quantify the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, and to compare the contributions of heat and cold in a large basin climate city, i.e., Chengdu (Sichuan Province, China); Methods: We estimated the temperature-mortality association with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with a maximum lag-time of 21 days while controlling for long time trends and day of week. We calculated the mortality risk attributable to heat and cold, which were defined as temperatures above and below an “optimum temperature” that corresponded to the point of minimum mortality. In addition, we explored effects of individual characteristics; Results: The analysis provides estimates of the overall mortality burden attributable to temperature, and then computes the components attributable to heat and cold. Overall, the total fraction of deaths caused by both heat and cold was 10.93% (95%CI: 7.99%–13.65%). Taken separately, cold was responsible for most of the burden (estimate 9.96%, 95%CI: 6.90%–12.81%), while the fraction attributable to heat was relatively small (estimate 0.97%, 95%CI: 0.46%–2.35%). The attributable risk (AR) of respiratory diseases was higher (19.69%, 95%CI: 14.45%–24.24%) than that of cardiovascular diseases (11.40%, 95%CI: 6.29%–16.01%); Conclusions: In Chengdu, temperature was responsible for a substantial fraction of deaths, with cold responsible for a higher proportion of deaths than heat. Respiratory diseases exert a larger effect on death than other diseases especially on cold days. There is potential to reduce respiratory-associated mortality especially among the aged population in basin climate cities when the temperature deviates beneath the optimum. The result may help to comprehensively assess the impact of ambient temperature in basin cities, and further facilitate an appropriate estimate of the health consequences of various climate-change scenarios. PMID:27973401

Isotopic evidence of multiple controls on atmospheric oxidants over climate transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geng, Lei; Murray, Lee T.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Lin, Pu; Fu, Qiang; Schauer, Andrew J.; Alexander, Becky

2017-06-01

The abundance of tropospheric oxidants, such as ozone (O3) and hydroxyl (OH) and peroxy radicals (HO2 + RO2), determines the lifetimes of reduced trace gases such as methane and the production of particulate matter important for climate and human health. The response of tropospheric oxidants to climate change is poorly constrained owing to large uncertainties in the degree to which processes that influence oxidants may change with climate and owing to a lack of palaeo-records with which to constrain levels of atmospheric oxidants during past climate transitions. At present, it is thought that temperature-dependent emissions of tropospheric O3 precursors and water vapour abundance determine the climate response of oxidants, resulting in lower tropospheric O3 in cold climates while HOx (= OH + HO2 + RO2) remains relatively buffered. Here we report observations of oxygen-17 excess of nitrate (a proxy for the relative abundance of atmospheric O3 and HOx) from a Greenland ice core over the most recent glacial-interglacial cycle and for two Dansgaard-Oeschger events. We find that tropospheric oxidants are sensitive to climate change with an increase in the O3/HOx ratio in cold climates, the opposite of current expectations. We hypothesize that the observed increase in O3/HOx in cold climates is driven by enhanced stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of O3, and that reactive halogen chemistry is also enhanced in cold climates. Reactive halogens influence the oxidative capacity of the troposphere directly as oxidants themselves and indirectly via their influence on O3 and HOx. The strength of stratosphere-to-troposphere transport is largely controlled by the Brewer-Dobson circulation, which may be enhanced in colder climates owing to a stronger meridional gradient of sea surface temperatures, with implications for the response of tropospheric oxidants and stratospheric thermal and mass balance. These two processes may represent important, yet relatively unexplored, climate feedback mechanisms during major climate transitions.

New Insights into the 8.2 ka Cold Event and Subsequent Climate Recovery in Central Europe Provided by a Precisely Dated Ostracod δ18O Record from Mondsee (Austria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauterbach, S.; Andersen, N.; Brauer, A.; Erlenkeuser, H.; Danielopol, D. L.; Namiotko, T.; Huels, M.; Belmecheri, S.; Nantke, C.; Meyer, H.; Chapligin, B.; von Grafenstein, U.

2015-12-01

As evidenced by numerous palaeoclimate records worldwide, the Holocene warm period has been interrupted by several short, low-amplitude cold episodes. Among these, the so-called 8.2 ka cold event is the most prominent Holocene climate perturbation but despite extensive studies, knowledge about its synchrony in different areas and particularly about the dynamics of subsequent climate recovery is still limited. As this is of crucial importance for understanding the complex mechanisms that trigger rapid climate fluctuations and for testing the performance of climate models, new data on the 8.2 ka cold event are needed. Here we present a new sub-decadally resolved, precisely dated oxygen isotope (δ18O) record for the interval 7.7-8.7 ka BP obtained from benthic ostracods preserved in the varved lake sediments of Mondsee (Austria), providing new insights into climate development around the 8.2 ka cold event in Central Europe. The new high-resolution δ18O data set reveals the occurrence of a pronounced cold spell around 8.2 ka BP, whose amplitude (~1.0 ‰, equivalent to a 1.5-2.0 °C cooling), total duration (151 a) and absolute dating (8231-8080 a BP, i.e. calendar years before AD 1950) perfectly agree with results from other Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives, e.g. the precisely dated Greenland ice cores. In addition, the Mondsee δ18O record also indicates a 75-year-long air temperature overshoot of ~0.7 °C directly after the 8.2 ka event (between 8080 and 8005 a BP), which is so far only poorly documented in the mid-latitudes. However, this observation is consistent with results from coupled climate models and high-latitude proxy records, thus likely reflecting a hemispheric-scale climate signal driven by enhanced resumption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which apparently also caused synchronous migrations of atmospheric and oceanic front systems in the North Atlantic realm.

Disturbance is the key to plant invasions in cold environments.

PubMed

Lembrechts, Jonas J; Pauchard, Aníbal; Lenoir, Jonathan; Nuñez, Martín A; Geron, Charly; Ven, Arne; Bravo-Monasterio, Pablo; Teneb, Ernesto; Nijs, Ivan; Milbau, Ann

2016-12-06

Until now, nonnative plant species were rarely found at high elevations and latitudes. However, partly because of climate warming, biological invasions are now on the rise in these extremely cold environments. These plant invasions make it timely to undertake a thorough experimental assessment of what has previously been holding them back. This knowledge is key to developing efficient management of the increasing risks of cold-climate invasions. Here, we integrate human interventions (i.e., disturbance, nutrient addition, and propagule input) and climatic factors (i.e., temperature) into one seed-addition experiment across two continents: the subantarctic Andes and subarctic Scandinavian mountains (Scandes), to disentangle their roles in limiting or favoring plant invasions. Disturbance was found as the main determinant of plant invader success (i.e., establishment, growth, and flowering) along the entire cold-climate gradient, explaining 40-60% of the total variance in our models, with no indication of any facilitative effect from the native vegetation. Higher nutrient levels additionally stimulated biomass production and flowering. Establishment and flowering displayed a hump-shaped response with increasing elevation, suggesting that competition is the main limit on invader success at low elevations, as opposed to low-growing-season temperatures at high elevations. Our experiment showed, however, that nonnative plants can establish, grow, and flower well above their current elevational limits in high-latitude mountains. We thus argue that cold-climate ecosystems are likely to see rapid increases in plant invasions in the near future as a result of a synergistic interaction between increasing human-mediated disturbances and climate warming.

Higher climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon in cold than warm climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, Charles D.; Hugelius, Gustaf; Lawrence, David M.; Wieder, William R.

2017-11-01

The projected loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere resulting from climate change is a potentially large but highly uncertain feedback to warming. The magnitude of this feedback is poorly constrained by observations and theory, and is disparately represented in Earth system models (ESMs). To assess the climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon, we calculate apparent soil carbon turnover times that reflect long-term and broad-scale rates of decomposition. Here, we show that the climatological temperature control on carbon turnover in the top metre of global soils is more sensitive in cold climates than in warm climates and argue that it is critical to capture this emergent ecosystem property in global-scale models. We present a simplified model that explains the observed high cold-climate sensitivity using only the physical scaling of soil freeze-thaw state across climate gradients. Current ESMs fail to capture this pattern, except in an ESM that explicitly resolves vertical gradients in soil climate and carbon turnover. An observed weak tropical temperature sensitivity emerges in a different model that explicitly resolves mineralogical control on decomposition. These results support projections of strong carbon-climate feedbacks from northern soils and demonstrate a method for ESMs to capture this emergent behaviour.

Cold Fronts in RegCM/HadGEM simulations over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pampuch, Luana; Marcos de Jesus, Eduardo; Porfírio da Rocha, Rosmeri; Ambrizzi, Tércio

2017-04-01

Cold front is one of the most important systems that contribute for precipitation over South America. The representation of this system in climate models is important for a better representation of the precipitation. The Regional Climate Model RegCM is widely used for climate studies in South America, being important to understand how this model represents the cold fronts. A climatology (from 1979-2004) of the number of cold fronts in each season for RegCM4 simulations over South America CORDEX domain nested in HadGEM2-ES. The simulated climatology was compared with ERA-Interim reanalysis cold fronts climatology over the South America and adjacent South Atlantic Ocean. The cold fronts tracking for the model and the reanalysis were performed using an objective methodology based on decrease of air temperature in 925hPa, shift of meridional wind in 925hPa from northern to southern quadrant and increased in sea level pressure. The main differences were observed on summer and winter. On summer the model overestimate the number of cold fronts over southeastern South America and adjacent Atlantic Ocean; and underestimate it over central-south Argentina and Atlantic Ocean. On winter, the signs were opposite of that summer. On autumn and spring the differences were smaller and occurs mainly over all South Atlantic and north Argentina.

Deacclimation may be crucial for winter survival of cereals under warming climate.

PubMed

Rapacz, Marcin; Jurczyk, Barbara; Sasal, Monika

2017-03-01

Climate warming can change the winter weather patterns. Warmer temperatures during winter result in a lower risk of extreme freezing events. On the other hand the predicted warm gaps during winter will decrease their freezing tolerance. Both contradict effects will affect winter survival but their resultant effect is unclear. In this paper, we demonstrate that climate warming may result in a decrease in winter survival of plants. A field study of winterhardiness of common wheat and triticale was established at 11 locations and repeated during three subsequent winters. The freezing tolerance of the plants was studied after controlled cold acclimation and de-acclimation using both plant survival analysis and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements. Cold deacclimation resistance was shown to be independent from cold acclimation ability. Further, cold deacclimation resistance appeared to be crucial for overwintering when deacclimation conditions occurred in the field. The shortening of uninterrupted cold acclimation may increase cold deacclimation efficiency, which could threaten plant survival during warmer winters. Measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence transient showed some differences triggered by freezing before and after deacclimation. We conclude that cold deacclimation resistance should be considered in the breeding of winter cereals and in future models of winter damage risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimization of Domestic-Size Renewable Energy System Designs Suitable for Cold Climate Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akpan, Itoro Etim; Sasaki, Masafumi; Endoh, Noboru

Five different kinds of domestic-size renewable energy system configurations for very cold climate regions were investigated. From detailed numerical modeling and system simulations, it was found that the consumption of fuel oil for the auxiliary boiler in residential-type households can almost be eliminated with a renewable energy system that incorporates photovoltaic panel arrays for electricity generation and two storage tanks: a well-insulated electric water storage tank that services the hot water loads, and a compact boiler/geothermal heat pump tank for room heating during very cold seasons. A reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) of about 28% was achieved for this system compared to an equivalent conventional system. The near elimination of the use of fuel oil in this system makes it very promising for very cold climate regions in terms of energy savings because the running cost is not so dependent on the unstable nature of global oil prices.

Assessing the Climate Sensitivity of Cold Content and Snowmelt in Seasonal Alpine and Subalpine Snowpacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jennings, K. S.; Molotch, N. P.

2016-12-01

In cold, high-elevation sites, snowpack cold content acts as a buffer against climate warming by resisting snowmelt during periods of positive energy fluxes. To test the climate sensitivity of cold content and snowmelt, we employed the physical SNOWPACK snow model, forced with a 23-year, hourly, quality-controlled, gap-filled meteorological dataset from the Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site in the Front Range mountains of Colorado. SNOWPACK was run at two points with seasonal snowpacks within the LTER, one in the alpine (3528 m) and one in the subalpine (3022 m). Model output was validated using snow water equivalent (SWE), snowpack temperature, and cold content data from snow pits dug near the met stations and automated SWE data from nearby SNOTEL snow pillows. Cold content accumulates primarily through additions of new snow, while negative energy fluxes—cooling through longwave emission and sublimation—play a lesser role, particularly in the deeper snowpack of the alpine. On average, the snowpack energy balance becomes positive on April 1 in the alpine and March 8 in the subalpine. Peak SWE occurs after these dates and its timing is primarily determined by the amount of precipitation received after peak cold content, with persistent snowfall delaying the main snowmelt pulse. Years with lower cold content, due to reduced precipitation and/or increased air temperature, experience an earlier positive energy balance with more melt events occurring before the date of peak SWE, which has implications for soil moisture, streamflow volume and timing, water uptake by vegetation, and microbial respiration. Synthetic warming experiments show significant cold content reductions and increased late-winter/early-spring melt as positive energy balances occur earlier in the snow season (a forward shift between 5.1 and 21.0 days per °C of warming). These results indicate cold, high-elevation sites, which are critical for water resources in the western United States, may lose their cold content buffering capacity and begin to experience stronger negative trends in SWE with increased climate warming, even as the majority of winter precipitation continues to fall as snow.

Late-Glacial to Early Holocene Climate Changes from a Central Appalachians Pollen and Macrofossil Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kneller, Margaret; Peteet, Dorothy

1997-01-01

A Late-glacial to early Holocene record of pollen, plant macrofossils and charcoal, based on two cores, is presented for Browns Pond in the central Appalachians of Virginia. An AMS radiocarbon chronology defines the timing of moist and cold excursions, superimposed upon the overall warming trend from 14,200 to 7,500 C-14 yr B.P. This site shows cold, moist conditions from approximately 14,200 to 12,700 C-14 yr B.P., with warming at 12,730, 11,280 and 10,050 C-14 yr B.P. A decrease in deciduous broad-leaved tree taxa and Pinus strobus (haploxylon) pollen, simultaneous with a re-expansion of Abies denotes a brief, cold reversal from 12,260 to 12,200 C-14 yr B.P. A second cold reversal, inferred from increases in montane conifers, is centered at 7,500 C-14 yr B.P. The cold reversals at Browns Pond may be synchronous with climate change in Greenland, and northwestern Europe. Warming at 11,280 C-14 yr B.P. shows the complexity of regional climate responses during the Younger Dryas chronozone.

Situation Climatic Briefs

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-09-01

F-7 CHILE -ARGENTINA SOUTH OF 40 DEGREES SOUTH .... ............. .. F-13 CHILE -PERU BORDER ................. ......................... F...34SITUATION CLIMATIC BRIEF CHILE -ARGENTINA SOUTH OF 40 DEGREES SOUTH ANNUAL 1. GENERAL. The weather is generally cloudy, windy, and cold year-round...conditions can occur for 3 or 4 hours following cold frontal passage during the winter. 4. TERMINAL WEATHER. Puerto Montt, Chile . Fair. Conditions are

Plasticity and stress tolerance override local adaptation in the responses of Mediterranean holm oak seedlings to drought and cold.

PubMed

Gimeno, Teresa E; Pías, Beatriz; Lemos-Filho, José P; Valladares, Fernando

2009-01-01

Plant populations of widely distributed species experience a broad range of environmental conditions that can be faced by phenotypic plasticity or ecotypic differentiation and local adaptation. The strategy chosen will determine a population's ability to respond to climate change. To explore this, we grew Quercus ilex (L.) seedlings from acorns collected at six selected populations from climatically contrasting localities and evaluated their response to drought and late season cold events. Maximum photosynthetic rate (A(max)), instantaneous water use efficiency (iWUE), and thermal tolerance to freeze and heat (estimated from chlorophyll fluorescence versus temperature curves) were measured in 5-month-old seedlings in control (no stress), drought (water-stressed), and cold (low suboptimal temperature) conditions. The observed responses were similar for the six populations: drought decreased A(max) and increased iWUE, and cold reduced A(max) and iWUE. All the seedlings maintained photosynthetic activity under adverse conditions (drought and cold), and rapidly increased their iWUE by closing stomata when exposed to drought. Heat and freeze tolerances were similarly high for seedlings from all the populations, and they were significantly increased by drought and cold, respectively; and were positively related to each other. Differences in seedling performance across populations were primarily induced by maternal effects mediated by seed size and to a lesser extent by idiosyncratic physiologic responses to drought and low temperatures. Tolerance to multiple stresses together with the capacity to physiologically acclimate to heat waves and cold snaps may allow Q. ilex to cope with the increasingly stressful conditions imposed by climate change. Lack of evidence of physiologic seedling adaptation to local climate may reflect opposing selection pressures to complex, multidimensional environmental conditions operating within the distribution range of this species.

Effects of warm and cold climate conditions on capelin (Mallotus villosus) and Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) in the eastern Bering Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, Alexander G.; Strasburger, Wesley W.; Farley, Edward V.; Murphy, James M.; Coyle, Kenneth O.

2016-12-01

Climate warming has impacted the southern extent of sea ice in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS) ecosystem, leading to many changes in ocean conditions and food webs there. We explore how these changes have affected two key forage fish species, capelin (Mallotus villosus) and Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), examining the effects of climate change on this commercially important ecosystem in the EBS. Catch per unit effort (CPUE) data from surface trawls, size, and diet of capelin and Pacific herring were collected during a series of warm and cold years by fisheries oceanographic surveys conducted from mid-August to early October 2003 through 2011. Overall, mean CPUE for both species was higher in the northeastern Bering Sea [NEBS; capelin=1.2 kg/km2 (warm) and 40.0 kg/km2 (cold); herring=141.1 kg/km2 (warm) and 132.4 kg/km2 (cold)] relative to the southeastern Bering Sea [SEBS; capelin=0.2 kg/km2 (warm) and 5.8 kg/km2 (cold); herring=15.8 kg/km2 (warm) and 24.5 kg/km2 (cold)], irrespective of temperature conditions. Capelin mean CPUE was significantly lower during warm years than during cold years [p<0.001; 0.6 kg/km2 (warm), 19.0 kg/km2 (cold)]. Pacific herring mean CPUE was less variable between warm and cold years [p<0.001; 63.8 kg/km2 (warm), 66.2 kg/km2 (cold)], but was still significantly less during warm years than cold. Capelin and herring lengths remained relatively constant between climate periods. Capelin lengths were similar among oceanographic domains [104 mm (South Inner domain), 112 mm (South Middle domain), 107 mm (North Inner domain), and 104 mm (North Middle domain)], while herring were larger in domains further offshore [123 mm (South Inner domain), 232 mm (South Middle domain), 260 mm (South Outer domain), 129 mm (North Inner domain), and 198 mm (North Middle domain)]. Diets for both species were significantly different between climate periods. Large crustacean prey comprised a higher proportion of the diets in most regions during cold years. Age-0 walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) contributed >60% to the diets of Pacific herring in southern Middle Domain and >30% in the northern Middle domain during warm years. A switch to less energetic prey for these forage fishes during warm years may have implications for fitness and future recruitment. The shifts in the distribution and lower biomass of capelin in the EBS during warm years could lead to disruptions in energy pathways in this complex marine ecosystem.

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places

PubMed Central

Julio Camarero, J.; Gazol, Antonio; Sancho-Benages, Santiago; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin (‘rear edge’) of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species’ European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs). Methods A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits. Key Results The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen. Conclusions The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern ‘rear edge’, in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios. PMID:26292992

The thermal mismatch hypothesis explains host susceptibility to an emerging infectious disease.

PubMed

Cohen, Jeremy M; Venesky, Matthew D; Sauer, Erin L; Civitello, David J; McMahon, Taegan A; Roznik, Elizabeth A; Rohr, Jason R

2017-02-01

Parasites typically have broader thermal limits than hosts, so large performance gaps between pathogens and their cold- and warm-adapted hosts should occur at relatively warm and cold temperatures, respectively. We tested this thermal mismatch hypothesis by quantifying the temperature-dependent susceptibility of cold- and warm-adapted amphibian species to the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) using laboratory experiments and field prevalence estimates from 15 410 individuals in 598 populations. In both the laboratory and field, we found that the greatest susceptibility of cold- and warm-adapted hosts occurred at relatively warm and cool temperatures, respectively, providing support for the thermal mismatch hypothesis. Our results suggest that as climate change shifts hosts away from their optimal temperatures, the probability of increased host susceptibility to infectious disease might increase, but the effect will depend on the host species and the direction of the climate shift. Our findings help explain the tremendous variation in species responses to Bd across climates and spatial, temporal and species-level variation in disease outbreaks associated with extreme weather events that are becoming more common with climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Cold climate specialization: adaptive covariation between metabolic rate and thermoregulation in pregnant vipers.

PubMed

Lourdais, Olivier; Guillon, Michaël; Denardo, Dale; Blouin-Demers, Gabriel

2013-07-02

We compared thermoregulatory strategies during pregnancy in two congeneric viperid snakes (Vipera berus and Vipera aspis) with parapatric geographic ranges. V. berus is a boreal specialist with the largest known distribution among terrestrial snakes while V. aspis is a south-European species. Despite contrasted climatic affinities, the two species displayed identical thermal preferences (Tset) in a laboratory thermal gradient. Under identical natural conditions, however, V. berus was capable of maintaining Tset for longer periods, especially when the weather was constraining. Consistent with the metabolic cold adaptation hypothesis, V. berus displayed higher standard metabolic rate at all temperatures considered. We used the thermal dependence of metabolic rate to calculate daily metabolic profiles from body temperature under natural conditions. The boreal specialist experienced higher daily metabolic rate and minimized gestation duration chiefly because of differences in the metabolic reaction norms, but also superior thermoregulatory efficiency. Under cold climates, thermal constraints should make precise thermoregulation costly. However, a shift in the metabolic reaction norm may compensate for thermal constraints and modify the cost-benefit balance of thermoregulation. Covariation between metabolic rate and thermoregulation efficiency is likely an important adaptation to cold climates. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The evolution of high summit metabolism and cold tolerance in birds and its impact on present-day distributions.

PubMed

Swanson, David L; Garland, Theodore

2009-01-01

Summit metabolic rate (M(sum), maximum cold-induced metabolic rate) is positively correlated with cold tolerance in birds, suggesting that high M(sum) is important for residency in cold climates. However, the phylogenetic distribution of high M(sum) among birds and the impact of its evolution on current distributions are not well understood. Two potential adaptive hypotheses might explain the phylogenetic distribution of high M(sum) among birds. The cold adaptation hypothesis contends that species wintering in cold climates should have higher M(sum) than species wintering in warmer climates. The flight adaptation hypothesis suggests that volant birds might be capable of generating high M(sum) as a byproduct of their muscular capacity for flight; thus, variation in M(sum) should be associated with capacity for sustained flight, one indicator of which is migration. We collected M(sum) data from the literature for 44 bird species and conducted both conventional and phylogenetically informed statistical analyses to examine the predictors of M(sum) variation. Significant phylogenetic signal was present for log body mass, log mass-adjusted M(sum), and average temperature in the winter range. In multiple regression models, log body mass, winter temperature, and clade were significant predictors of log M(sum). These results are consistent with a role for climate in determining M(sum) in birds, but also indicate that phylogenetic signal remains even after accounting for associations indicative of adaptation to winter temperature. Migratory strategy was never a significant predictor of log M(sum) in multiple regressions, a result that is not consistent with the flight adaptation hypothesis.

Paleoecological evidence for abrupt cold reversals during peak Holocene warmth on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Yarrow; Briner, Jason P.; Miller, Gifford H.; Francis, Donna R.

2009-03-01

A continuous record of insect (Chironomidae) remains preserved in lake sediments is used to infer temperature changes at a small lake in Arctic Canada through the Holocene. Early Holocene summers at the study site were characterized by more thermophilous assemblages and warmer inferred temperatures than today, presumably in response to the positive anomaly in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Peak early Holocene warmth was interrupted by two cold reversals between 9.5 and 8 cal ka BP, during which multiple cold-stenothermous chironomid taxa appeared in the lake. The earlier reversal appears to correlate with widespread climate anomalies around 9.2 cal ka BP; the age of the younger reversal is equivocal but it may correlate with the 8.2 cal ka BP cold event documented elsewhere. Widespread, abrupt climate shifts in the early Holocene illustrate the susceptibility of the climate system to perturbations, even during periods of enhanced warmth in the Northern Hemisphere.

Cold adaptation recorded in tree rings highlights risks associated with climate change and assisted migration.

PubMed

Montwé, David; Isaac-Renton, Miriam; Hamann, Andreas; Spiecker, Heinrich

2018-04-23

With lengthening growing seasons but increased temperature variability under climate change, frost damage to plants may remain a risk and could be exacerbated by poleward planting of warm-adapted seed sources. Here, we study cold adaptation of tree populations in a wide-ranging coniferous species in western North America to inform limits to seed transfer. Using tree-ring signatures of cold damage from common garden trials designed to study genetic population differentiation, we find opposing geographic clines for spring frost and fall frost damage. Provenances from northern regions are sensitive to spring frosts, while the more productive provenances from central and southern regions are more susceptible to fall frosts. Transferring the southern, warm-adapted genotypes northward causes a significant loss of growth and a permanent rank change after a spring frost event. We conclude that cold adaptation should remain an important consideration when implementing seed transfers designed to mitigate harmful effects of climate change.

Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) Project and its Interest in Arctic Hydrology Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, D.; Prowse, T. D.; Steffen, K.; Ryabinin, V.

2009-12-01

The cryosphere is an important and dynamic component of the global climate system. The global cryosphere is changing rapidly, with changes in the Polar Regions receiving particular attention during the International Polar Year 2007-2008. The Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) Project is a core project of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and is co-sponsored by WCRP, SCAR (Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research) and IASC (International Committee for Antarctic Research). The principal goal of CliC is to assess and quantify the impacts that climatic variability and change have on components of the cryosphere and the consequences of these impacts for the climate system. To achieve its objectives, CliC coordinates international and regional projects, partners with other organizations in joint initiatives, and organizes panels and working groups to lead and coordinate advanced research aimed at closing identified gaps in scientific knowledge about climate and cryosphere. The terrestrial cryosphere includes land areas where snow cover, lake- and river-ice, glaciers and ice caps, permafrost and seasonally frozen ground and solid precipitation occur. The main task of this theme is to improve estimates and quantify the uncertainty of water balance and related energy flux components in cold climate regions. This includes precipitation (both solid and liquid) distribution, properties of snow, snow melt, evapotranspiration, sublimation, water movement through frozen and unfrozen ground, water storage in watersheds, river- and lake-ice properties and processes, and river runoff. The focus of this theme includes two specific issues: the role of permafrost and frozen ground in the carbon balance, and precipitation in cold climates. Hydrological studies of cold regions will provide a key contribution to the new theme crosscut, which focuses on the cryospheric input to the freshwater balance of the Arctic. This presentation will provide an overview and update of recent developments of cold region hydrometeorology research activities and future challenges in arctic hydrology and climate change investigations.

Research on trend of warm-humid climate in Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Zhi; Peng, Dailiang; Wen, Jingyi; Cai, Zhanqing; Wang, Tiantian; Hu, Yuekai; Ma, Yaxin; Xu, Junfeng

2017-07-01

Central Asia is a typical arid area, which is sensitive and vulnerable part of climate changes, at the same time, Central Asia is the Silk Road Economic Belt of the core district, the warm-humid climate change will affect the production and economic development of neighboring countries. The average annual precipitation, average anneal temperature and evapotranspiration are the important indexes to weigh the climate change. In this paper, the annual precipitation, annual average temperature and evapotranspiration data of every pixel point in Central Asia are analyzed by using long-time series remote sensing data to analyze the trend of warm and humid conditions. Finally, using the model to analyzed the distribution of warm-dry trend, the warm-wet trend, the cold-dry trend and the cold-wet trend in Central Asia and Xinjiang area. The results showed that most of the regions of Central Asia were warm-humid and warm-dry trends, but only a small number of regions showed warm-dry and cold-dry trends. It is of great significance to study the climatic change discipline and guarantee the ecological safety and improve the ability to cope with climate change in the region. It also provide scientific basis for the formulation of regional climate change program. The first section in your paper

Geologic Tests for Snowmelt Runoff on Early Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kite, E. S.; Sneed, J.; Mayer, D. P.

2017-12-01

Data from the Curiosity rover have sharpened the question: was Early Mars climate warm enough for rainfall, or was the climate cold? The hypothesis of a cold (snow-and-ice melt) climate on Early Mars can be tested using runoff production. Runoff production cannot exceed snowmelt rate in a cold climate. Therefore, high runoff production would rule out cold conditions, and would suggest rain (or catastrophic melting of snow). How can runoff production be reliably measured? To constrain runoff production, the lead author is measuring paleochannel widths and meander wavelengths for Early Mars watersheds with well-defined drainage area. The measurement method is the same as in Kite et al., EPSL, 2015. >250 channel-width measurements and 89 meander wavelength measurements are included, representing 158 drainage areas. The catalog emphasizes better-preserved (post-Noachian) paleochannels, but includes a re-survey of previously-reported paleochannel width and wavelength measurement sites. Channel widths and wavelengths are a proxy for paleodischarge. Discharge (m3/s) can be divided by drainage area (m2) to obtain a lower bound on runoff-production (mm/hr). If runoff production >(1-3) mm/hr, then a seasonal melting snow-and-ice climate is strongly disfavored. However, high runoff production would be consistent with rainfall. Initial results will be reported at the conference. The figure shows the locations of measurement sites for Early Mars channel width (black) and meander wavelength (red).

The cold-water climate shield: Delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st century

Treesearch

Daniel J. Isaak; Michael K. Young; David E. Nagel; Dona L. Horan; Matthew C. Groce

2015-01-01

The distribution and future fate of ectothermic organisms in a warming world will be dictated by thermalscapes across landscapes. That is particularly true for stream fishes and cold-water species like trout, salmon, and char that are already constrained to high elevations and latitudes. The extreme climates in those environments also preclude invasions by most non-...

Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming.

PubMed

Oliver, Tom H; Gillings, Simon; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Brereton, Tom; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Duffield, Simon J; Morecroft, Michael D; Roy, David B

2017-06-01

Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high-intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully 'tracking' climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm- and cold-associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold-associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm-associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting 'adaptive' community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high-intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold-adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm-associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Can animal habitat use patterns influence their vulnerability to extreme climate events? An estuarine sportfish case study.

PubMed

Boucek, Ross E; Heithaus, Michael R; Santos, Rolando; Stevens, Philip; Rehage, Jennifer S

2017-10-01

Global climate forecasts predict changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (ECEs). The capacity for specific habitat patches within a landscape to modulate stressors from extreme climate events, and animal distribution throughout habitat matrices during events, could influence the degree of population level effects following the passage of ECEs. Here, we ask (i) does the intensity of stressors of an ECE vary across a landscape? And (ii) Do habitat use patterns of a mobile species influence their vulnerability to ECEs? Specifically, we measured how extreme cold spells might interact with temporal variability in habitat use to affect populations of a tropical, estuarine-dependent large-bodied fish Common Snook, within Everglades National Park estuaries (FL US). We examined temperature variation across the estuary during cold disturbances with different degrees of severity, including an extreme cold spell. Second, we quantified Snook distribution patterns when the passage of ECEs is most likely to occur from 2012 to 2016 using passive acoustic tracking. Our results revealed spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of temperature declines during cold disturbances, with some habitats being consistently 3-5°C colder than others. Surprisingly, Snook distributions during periods of greatest risk to experience an extreme cold event varied among years. During the winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 a greater proportion of Snook occurred in the colder habitats, while the winters of 2012-2013 and 2015-2016 featured more Snook observed in the warmest habitats. This study shows that Snook habitat use patterns could influence vulnerability to extreme cold events, however, whether Snook habitat use increases or decreases their vulnerability to disturbance depends on the year, creating temporally dynamic vulnerability. Faunal global change research should address the spatially explicit nature of extreme climate events and animal habitat use patterns to identify potential mechanisms that may influence population effects following these disturbances. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Effective Climate Refugia for Cold-water Fishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebersole, J. L.; Morelli, T. L.; Torgersen, C.; Isaak, D.; Keenan, D.; Labiosa, R.; Fullerton, A.; Massie, J.

2015-12-01

Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of endothermic organisms such as cold-water salmon and trout species (salmonids). Recently published projected declines in mid-latitude salmonid distributions under future climates range from modest to severe, depending on modeling approaches, assumptions, and spatial context of analyses. Given these projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer cold-water fish populations and their habitats against climate change is emerging. Using terms such as "climate-proofing", "climate-ready", and "climate refugia", such efforts stake a claim for an adaptive, anticipatory planning response to the climate change threat. To be effective, such approaches will need to address critical uncertainties in both the physical basis for projected landscape changes in water temperature and streamflow, as well as the biological responses of organisms. Recent efforts define future potential climate refugia based on projected streamflows, air temperatures, and associated water temperature changes. These efforts reflect the relatively strong conceptual foundation for linkages between regional climate change and local hydrological responses and thermal dynamics. Yet important questions remain. Drawing on case studies throughout the Pacific Northwest, we illustrate some key uncertainties in the responses of salmonids and their habitats to altered hydro-climatic regimes currently not well addressed by physical or ecological models. Key uncertainties include biotic interactions, organismal adaptive capacity, local climate decoupling due to groundwater-surface water interactions, the influence of human engineering responses, and synergies between climatic and other stressors. These uncertainties need not delay anticipatory planning, but rather highlight the need for identification and communication of actions with high probabilities of success, and targeted research within an adaptive management framework.

Bioclimatological rating of cities and resorts in South Africa according to the Climate Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, S.

2000-10-01

The climatic conditions of 31 cities and resorts in South Africa have been examined with regard to the thermal perception of people. The evaluation of the thermal conditions is based on the human energy balance calculations, which have been specified for the detection of hot or cold discomfort of people walking outdoors in spite of adapted clothing. Hot days and cold days are defined depending on the extent and duration of thermal discomfort. Cities are rated according to the Climate Index (CI), which is defined in terms of the monthly frequency of hot or cold days. The most pleasant conditions in the annual average can be found along the coastal belt (Port St. Johns, Richards Bay, St. Lucia), the most unpleasant ones in the mediterranean region around Cape Town, the Karoo and the eastern lowveld.

A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Jana S.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Mitro, Matthew G.; Lyons, John D.; Kammel, Leah E.; Buchwald, Cheryl A.

2015-01-01

Integrating the SWB Model with the ANN Model provided a mechanism by which downscaled global or regional climate model results could be used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on future stream temperature on a daily time step. To address future climate scenarios, statistically downscaled air temperature and precipitation projections from 10 GCMs and 2 time periods were used with the SWB-ANNv1 Model to project future stream temperature. Projections of future stream temperatures at mid- (2046–65) and late- (2081–2100) 21st century showed the July mean water temperature increasing for all stream segments with about 80 percent of stream kilometers increasing by 1 to 2 degrees Celsius (°C) by mid-century and about 99 percent increasing by 1 to 3 °C by late-century. Projected changes in stream temperatures also affected changes in thermal classes with a loss in the total amount of cold-water, cold-transition, and warm-transition thermal habitat and a gain in warm-water and very warm thermal habitat for both mid- and late-21st century time periods. The greatest losses occurred for cold-water streams and the greatest gains for warm-water streams, with a contraction of cold-water streams in the Driftless Area of western and southern Wisconsin and an expansion of warm-water streams across northern Wisconsin. Results of this study suggest that such changes will affect the composition of fish assemblages, with a loss of suitable habitat for cold-water fishes and gain in suitable habitat for warm-water fishes. In the end, these projected changes in thermal habitat attributable to climate may result in a net loss of fisheries, because many warm-water species may be unable to colonize habitats formerly occupied by cold-water species because of other habitat limitations (e.g., stream size, gradient). Although projected stream temperatures may vary greatly, depending on the emissions scenario and models used, the results presented in this report represent one possibility. The relative change in stream temperature can provide useful information for planning for potential climate impacts to aquatic ecosystems. Model results can be used to help identify vulnerabilities of streams to climate change, guide stream surveys and thermal classifications, prioritize the allocation of scarce financial resources, identify approaches to climate adaptation to best protect and enhance resiliency in stream thermal habitat, and provide information to make quantitative assessments of statewide stream resources.

Integrating net-zero energy and high-performance green building technologies into contemporary housing in a cold climate

Treesearch

Martin Yoklic; Mark Knaebe; Karen Martinson

2010-01-01

The objectives of this research project are (1) to show how the sustainable resources of forest biomass, solar energy, harvested rainwater, and small-diameter logs can be integrated to a system that provides most or all of the energy and water needs of a typical cold climate residential household, and (2) to effectively interpret the results and convey the sustainable...

Cold flow properties of biodiesel: A guide to getting an accurate analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Biodiesel has several advantages compared to conventional diesel fuel (petrodiesel). Nevertheless, biodiesel has poor cold flow properties that may restrict its use in moderate climates. It is essential that the cold flow properties of biodiesel and its blends with petrodiesel be measured as accurat...

Overwintering of herbaceous plants in a changing climate. Still more questions than answers.

PubMed

Rapacz, Marcin; Ergon, Ashild; Höglind, Mats; Jørgensen, Marit; Jurczyk, Barbara; Ostrem, Liv; Rognli, Odd Arne; Tronsmo, Anne Marte

2014-08-01

The increase in surface temperature of the Earth indicates a lower risk of exposure for temperate grassland and crop to extremely low temperatures. However, the risk of low winter survival rate, especially in higher latitudes may not be smaller, due to complex interactions among different environmental factors. For example, the frequency, degree and length of extreme winter warming events, leading to snowmelt during winter increased, affecting the risks of anoxia, ice encasement and freezing of plants not covered with snow. Future climate projections suggest that cold acclimation will occur later in autumn, under shorter photoperiod and lower light intensity, which may affect the energy partitioning between the elongation growth, accumulation of organic reserves and cold acclimation. Rising CO2 levels may also disturb the cold acclimation process. Predicting problems with winter pathogens is also very complex, because climate change may greatly influence the pathogen population and because the plant resistance to these pathogens is increased by cold acclimation. All these factors, often with contradictory effects on winter survival, make plant overwintering viability under future climates an open question. Close cooperation between climatologists, ecologists, plant physiologists, geneticists and plant breeders is strongly required to predict and prevent possible problems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality: an epidemiologic study in four climatic zones in China

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Little evidence is available about the association between temperature and cerebrovascular mortality in China. This study aims to examine the effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality in different climatic zones in China. Method We obtained daily data on weather conditions, air pollution and cerebrovascular deaths from five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Guangzhou) in China during 2004-2008. We examined city-specific associations between ambient temperature and the cerebrovascular mortality, while adjusting for season, long-term trends, day of the week, relative humidity and air pollution. We examined cold effects using a 1°C decrease in temperature below a city-specific threshold, and hot effects using a 1°C increase in temperature above a city-specific threshold. We used a meta-analysis to summarize the cold and hot effects across the five cities. Results Beijing and Tianjin (with low mean temperature) had lower thresholds than Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou (with high mean temperature). In Beijing, Tianjin, Wuhan and Guangzhou cold effects were delayed, while in Shanghai there was no or short induction. Hot effects were acute in all five cities. The cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. The hot effects were followed by mortality displacement. The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C decrease in temperature below thresholds (cold effect) was 1.037 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.020, 1.053). The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C increase in temperature above thresholds (hot effect) was 1.014 (95% CI: 0.979, 1.050). Conclusion Cold temperatures are significantly associated with cerebrovascular mortality in China, while hot effect is not significant. People in colder climate cities were sensitive to hot temperatures, while people in warmer climate cities were vulnerable to cold temperature. PMID:24690204

The I.A.G./A.I.G. SEDIBUD (Sediment Budgets in Cold Environments) Program (2005 - 2017): Key activities and outcomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beylich, Achim A.

2017-04-01

Amplified climate change and ecological sensitivity of high-latitude and high-altitude cold climate environments has been highlighted as a key global environmental issue. Projected climate change in largely undisturbed cold regions is expected to alter melt-season duration and intensity, along with the number of extreme rainfall events, total annual precipitation and the balance between snowfall and rainfall. Similarly, changes to the thermal balance are expected to reduce the extent of permafrost and seasonal ground frost and increase active-layer depths. These combined effects will undoubtedly change Earth surface environments in cold regions and will alter the fluxes of sediments, solutes and nutrients. However, the absence of quantitative data and coordinated analysis to understand the sensitivity of the Earth surface environment are acute in cold regions. Contemporary cold climate environments generally provide the opportunity to identify solute and sedimentary systems where anthropogenic impacts are still less important than the effects of climate change. Accordingly, it is still possible to develop a library of baseline fluvial yields and sedimentary budgets before the natural environment is completely transformed. The SEDIBUD (Sediment Budgets in Cold Environments) Program, building on the European Science Foundation (ESF) Network SEDIFLUX (Sedimentary Source-to-Sink Fluxes in Cold Environments, since 2004) was formed in 2005 as a new Program (Working Group) of the International Association of Geomorphologists (I.A.G./A.I.G.) to address this still existing key knowledge gap. SEDIBUD (2005-2017) has currently about 400 members worldwide and the Steering Committee of this international program is composed of eleven scientists from ten different countries. The central research question of this global program is to: Assess and model the contemporary sedimentary fluxes in cold climates, with emphasis on both particulate and dissolved components. Research carried out at 56 defined SEDIBUD key test sites (selected catchment systems) varies by scientific program, logistics and available resources, but typically represent interdisciplinary collaborations of geomorphologists, hydrologists, ecologists, permafrost scientists and glaciologists with different levels of detail. SEDIBUD has developed a key set of primary research data requirements intended to incorporate results from these varied projects and allow quantitative analysis across the program. Defined SEDIBUD key test sites provide field data on annual climatic conditions, total discharge and particulate and dissolved fluxes and yields as well as information on other relevant denudational Earth surface processes. A number of selected key test sites are providing high-resolution data on climatic conditions, runoff and solute and sedimentary fluxes and yields, which - in addition to the annual data - contribute to the SEDIBUD metadata database. To support these coordinated efforts, the SEDIFLUX manual and a set of framework papers and book chapters have been produced to establish the integrative approach and common methods and data standards. Comparable field-datasets from different SEDIBUD key test sites are analyzed and integrated to address key research questions of the SEDIBUD program as defined in the SEDIBUD working group objective. A key SEDIBUD synthesis book was published in 2016 by the group and a synthesis key paper is currently in preparation. Detailed information on all SEDIBUD activities, outcomes and published products is found at http://www.geomorph.org/sedibud-working-group/.

Impacts of extreme climatic events on the energetics of long-lived vertebrates: the case of the greater flamingo facing cold spells in the Camargue.

PubMed

Deville, Anne-Sophie; Labaude, Sophie; Robin, Jean-Patrice; Béchet, Arnaud; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Porter, Warren; Fitzpatrick, Megan; Mathewson, Paul; Grémillet, David

2014-10-15

Most studies analyzing the effects of global warming on wild populations focus on gradual temperature changes, yet it is also important to understand the impact of extreme climatic events. Here we studied the effect of two cold spells (January 1985 and February 2012) on the energetics of greater flamingos (Phoenicopterus roseus) in the Camargue (southern France). To understand the cause of observed flamingo mass mortalities, we first assessed the energy stores of flamingos found dead in February 2012, and compared them with those found in other bird species exposed to cold spells and/or fasting. Second, we evaluated the monthly energy requirements of flamingos across 1980-2012 using the mechanistic model Niche Mapper. Our results show that the body lipids of flamingos found dead in 2012 corresponded to 2.6±0.3% of total body mass, which is close to results found in woodcocks (Scolopax rusticola) that died from starvation during a cold spell (1.7±0.1%), and much lower than in woodcocks which were fed throughout this same cold spell (13.0±2%). Further, Niche Mapper predicted that flamingo energy requirements were highest (+6-7%) during the 1985 and 2012 cold spells compared with 'normal' winters. This increase was primarily driven by cold air temperatures. Overall, our findings strongly suggest that flamingos starved to death during both cold spells. This study demonstrates the relevance of using mechanistic energetics modelling and body condition analyses to understand and predict the impact of extreme climatic events on animal energy balance and winter survival probabilities. © 2014. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Anomalous cold in the Pangaean tropics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soreghan, G.S.; Soreghan, M.J.; Poulsen, C.J.; Young, R.A.; Eble, C.F.; Sweet, D.E.; Davogustto, O.C.

2008-01-01

The late Paleozoic archives the greatest glaciation of the Phanerozoic. Whereas high-latitude Gondwanan strata preserve widespread evidence for continental ice, the Permo-Carboniferous tropics have long been considered analogous to today's: warm and shielded from the highlatitude cold. Here, we report on glacial and periglacial indicators that record episodes of freezing continental temperatures in western equatorial Pangaea. An exhumed glacial valley and associated deposits record direct evidence for glaciation that extended to low paleoelevations in the ancestral Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, the Permo-Carboniferous archives the only known occurrence of widespread tropical loess in Earth's history; the volume, chemistry, and provenance of this loess(ite) is most consistent with glacial derivation. Together with emerging indicators for cold elsewhere in low-latitude Pangaea, these results suggest that tropical climate was not buffered from the high latitudes and may record glacial-interglacial climate shifts of very large magnitude. Coupled climate-ice sheet model simulations demonstrate that low atmospheric CO2 and solar luminosity alone cannot account for such cold, and that other factors must be considered in attempting to explain this 'best-known' analogue to our present Earth. ?? 2008 The Geological Society of America.

Multiple causes of the Younger Dryas cold period: new insights from coupled model experiments constrained by data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renssen, Hans; Mairesse, Aurélien; Goosse, Hugues; Mathiot, Pierre; Heiri, Oliver; Roche, Didier M.; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Valdes, Paul J.

2016-04-01

The Younger Dryas cooling event disrupted the overall warming trend in the North Atlantic region during the last deglaciation. Climate change during the Younger Dryas was abrupt, and thus provides insights into the sensitivity of the climate system to perturbations. The sudden Younger Dryas cooling has traditionally been attributed to a shut-down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by meltwater discharges. However, alternative explanations such as strong negative radiative forcing and a shift in atmospheric circulation have also been offered. In this study we investigate the importance of these different forcings in coupled climate model experiments constrained by data assimilation. We find that the Younger Dryas climate signal as registered in proxy evidence is best simulated using a combination of processes: a weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, moderate negative radiative forcing and an altered atmospheric circulation. We conclude that none of the individual mechanisms alone provide a plausible explanation for the Younger Dryas cold period. We suggest that the triggers for abrupt climate changes like the Younger Dryas are more complex than suggested so far, and that studies on the response of the climate system to perturbations should account for this complexity. Reference: Renssen, H. et al. (2015) Multiple causes of the Younger Dryas cold period. Nature Geoscience 8, 946-949.

Response of the North Atlantic surface and intermediate ocean structure to climate warming of MIS 11.

PubMed

Kandiano, Evgenia S; van der Meer, Marcel T J; Schouten, Stefan; Fahl, Kirsten; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S; Bauch, Henning A

2017-04-10

Investigating past interglacial climates not only help to understand how the climate system operates in general, it also forms a vital basis for climate predictions. We reconstructed vertical stratification changes in temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic for a period some 400 ka ago (MIS11), an interglacial time analogue of a future climate. As inferred from a unique set of biogeochemical, geochemical, and faunal data, the internal upper ocean stratification across MIS 11 shows distinct depth-dependent dynamical changes related to vertical as well as lateral shifts in the upper Atlantic meridional circulation system. Importantly, transient cold events are recognized near the end of the long phase of postglacial warming at surface, subsurface, mid, and deeper water layers. These data demonstrate that MIS 11 coolings over the North Atlantic were initially triggered by freshwater input at the surface and expansion of cold polar waters into the Subpolar Gyre. The cooling signal was then transmitted downwards into mid-water depths. Since the cold events occurred after the main deglacial phase we suggest that their cause might be related to continuous melting of the Greenland ice sheet, a mechanism that might also be relevant for the present and upcoming climate.

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places.

PubMed

Julio Camarero, J; Gazol, Antonio; Sancho-Benages, Santiago; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel

2015-11-01

Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin ('rear edge') of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species' European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs). A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits. The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen. The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern 'rear edge', in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the 'ISOTHURM' project.

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J; Wilkinson, Paul; Kovats, R Sari; Pattenden, Sam; Hajat, Shakoor; Armstrong, Ben; Vajanapoom, Nitaya; Niciu, Emilia M; Mahomed, Hassan; Kingkeow, Chamnong; Kosnik, Mitja; O'Neill, Marie S; Romieu, Isabelle; Ramirez-Aguilar, Matiana; Barreto, Mauricio L; Gouveia, Nelson; Nikiforov, Bojidar

2008-10-01

This study describes heat- and cold-related mortality in 12 urban populations in low- and middle-income countries, thereby extending knowledge of how diverse populations, in non-OECD countries, respond to temperature extremes. The cities were: Delhi, Monterrey, Mexico City, Chiang Mai, Bangkok, Salvador, São Paulo, Santiago, Cape Town, Ljubljana, Bucharest and Sofia. For each city, daily mortality was examined in relation to ambient temperature using autoregressive Poisson models (2- to 5-year series) adjusted for season, relative humidity, air pollution, day of week and public holidays. Most cities showed a U-shaped temperature-mortality relationship, with clear evidence of increasing death rates at colder temperatures in all cities except Ljubljana, Salvador and Delhi and with increasing heat in all cities except Chiang Mai and Cape Town. Estimates of the temperature threshold below which cold-related mortality began to increase ranged from 15 degrees C to 29 degrees C; the threshold for heat-related deaths ranged from 16 degrees C to 31 degrees C. Heat thresholds were generally higher in cities with warmer climates, while cold thresholds were unrelated to climate. Urban populations, in diverse geographic settings, experience increases in mortality due to both high and low temperatures. The effects of heat and cold vary depending on climate and non-climate factors such as the population disease profile and age structure. Although such populations will undergo some adaptation to increasing temperatures, many are likely to have substantial vulnerability to climate change. Additional research is needed to elucidate vulnerability within populations.

Paleoclimate diagnostics: consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izumi, Kenji; Bartlein, Patrick; Harrison, Sandy

2015-04-01

The CMIP5 model simulations of the large-scale temperature responses to increased raditative forcing include enhanced land-ocean contrast, stronger response at higher latitudes than in the tropics, and differential responses in warm and cool season climates to uniform forcing. Here we show that these patterns are also characteristic of CMIP5 model simulations of past climates. The differences in the responses over land as opposed to over the ocean, between high and low latitudes, and between summer and winter are remarkably consistent (proportional and nearly linear) across simulations of both cold and warm climates. Similar patterns also appear in historical observations and paleoclimatic reconstructions, implying that such responses are characteristic features of the climate system and not simple model artifacts, thereby increasing our confidence in the ability of climate models to correctly simulate different climatic states. We also show the possibility that a small set of common mechanisms control these large-scale responses of the climate system across multiple states.

Vertical climatic belts in the Tatra Mountains in the light of current climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Łupikasza, Ewa; Szypuła, Bartłomiej

2018-04-01

The paper discusses temporal changes in the configuration of vertical climatic belts in the Tatra Mountains as a result of current climate change. Meteorological stations are scarce in the Tatra Mountains; therefore, we modelled decadal air temperatures using existing data from 20 meteorological stations and the relationship between air temperature and altitude. Air temperature was modelled separately for northern and southern slopes and for convex and concave landforms. Decadal air temperatures were additionally used to delineate five climatic belts previously distinguished by Hess on the basis of threshold values of annual air temperature. The spatial extent and location of the borderline isotherms of 6, 4, 2, 0, and - 2 °C for four decades, including 1951-1960, 1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010, were compared. Significant warming in the Tatra Mountains, uniform in the vertical profile, started at the beginning of the 1980s and led to clear changes in the extent and location of the vertical climatic belts delineated on the basis of annual air temperature. The uphill shift of the borderline isotherms was more prominent on southern than on northern slopes. The highest rate of changes in the extent of the climatic belts was found above the isotherm of 0 °C (moderately cold and cold belts). The cold belt dramatically diminished in extent over the research period.

Effects of cold treatments on fitness and mode of reproduction in the diploid and polyploid alpine plant Ranunculus kuepferi (Ranunculaceae).

PubMed

Klatt, Simone; Schinkel, Christoph C F; Kirchheimer, Bernhard; Dullinger, Stefan; Hörandl, Elvira

2018-06-08

Alpine plants grow in harsh environments and are thought to face occasional frost during the sensitive reproductive phase. Apomixis (asexual reproduction via seed) can be advantageous when sexual reproduction is disturbed by cold stress. Apomictic polyploids tend to grow in colder climates than their sexual diploid relatives. Whether cold temperatures actually induce apomixis was unknown to date. We tested experimentally in climate cabinets for effects of low temperatures and repeated frost on phenology, fitness and mode of reproduction in diploid and tetraploid cytotypes of the alpine species Ranunculus kuepferi. The reproduction mode was determined via flow cytometric seed screening (FCSS). Diploids produced the first flowers earlier than the tetraploids in all treatments. Cold treatments significantly reduced the fitness of both cytotypes regarding seed set, and increased the frequency of apomictic seed formation in diploids, but not in tetraploids. Over consecutive years, the degree of facultative apomixis showed individual phenotypic plasticity. Cold stress is correlated to expression of apomixis in warm-adapted, diploid R. kuepferi, while temperature-tolerant tetraploids just maintain facultative apomixis as a possible adaptation to colder climates. However, expression of apomixis may not depend on polyploidy, but rather on failure of the sexual pathway.

Field Performance of Inverter-Driven Heat Pumps in Cold Climates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williamson, James; Aldrich, Robb

2015-08-19

Traditionally, air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) have been used more often in warmer climates; however, some new ASHPs are gaining ground in colder areas. These systems operate at subzero (Fahrenheit) temperatures and many do not include backup electric resistance elements. There are still uncertainties, however, about capacity and efficiency in cold weather. Also, questions such as “how cold is too cold?” do not have clear answers. These uncertainties could lead to skepticism among homeowners; poor energy savings estimates; suboptimal system selection by heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning contractors; and inconsistent energy modeling. In an effort to better understand and characterize the heatingmore » performance of these units in cold climates, the U.S. Department of Energy Building America team, Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB), monitored seven inverter-driven, ductless ASHPs across the Northeast. Operating data were collected for three Mitsubishi FE18 units, three Mitsubishi FE12 units, and one Fujitsu 15RLS2 unit. The intent of this research was to assess heat output, electricity consumption, and coefficients of performance (COPs) at various temperatures and load conditions. This assessment was accomplished with long- and short-term tests that measured power consumption; supply, return, and outdoor air temperatures; and airflow through the indoor fan coil.« less

Static and Fatigue Analysis of Wind Turbine Blades Subject to Cold Weather Conditions Using Finite Element Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lillo Gallardo, Patricio Andres

Canada has aggressive targets for introducing wind energy across the country, but also faces challenges in achieving these goals due to the harsh Canadian climate. One issue which has received little attention in other countries not experiencing these extremes is the behaviour of composite blades in winter conditions. The scope of the work presented is to analyze the static stresses and fatigue response in cold climates using finite element models of the blade. The work opens with a quantification of the extremes of cold experienced in candidate Canadian wind turbine deployment locations. The thesis then narrows its focus to a consideration of the stresses in the root of the composite blades, specifically two common blade-hub connection methods: embedded root carrots and T-bolts. Finite element models of the root are proposed to properly simulate boundary conditions, applied loading and thermal stresses for a 1.5 MW wind turbine. It is shown that the blade root is strongly affected by the thermal stresses caused by the mismatch and orthotrophy of the coefficients of thermal expansion of the blade root constituents. Fatigue analysis of a blade is then presented using temperature dependent material properties including estimated fatigue coefficients.It was found that the natural frequencies of a 1.5 MW wind turbine blade are not significantly altered at cold temperatures. Additionally, cold temperatures slightly increase stresses in the composite blade skin when the blade is loaded, due to an increase in stiffness. Cold temperatures also lead to higher cyclic flapwise bending moments acting on the blade. However, this increase was found not to affect the lifetime fatigue damage. Finally, it was found that the cold climate as seen in Canada improves the fatigue strength of the saturated composite materials used in the blade. The predicted fatigue damage of the triaxial fabric and the spar cap layers in cold climates was therefore predicted to be half that of the fatigue damage at room temperature. This is caused solely by the temperature dependence of the fatigue coefficient b which requires further experimental verification to validate the numerical results of the current study.

Late Miocene - Pliocene Evolution of the Pacific Warm Pool and Cold Tongue: Implications for El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Pagani, M.

2011-12-01

The Western Pacific Warm Pool of the tropical Pacific Ocean retains the largest and warmest sea surface water body on Earth, while the eastern equatorial Pacific is characterized by strong upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich deep waters, termed the Pacific cold tongue. Evolution of the Pacific warm pool and cold tongue are important because they control the circum-Pacific climate and impact the globe via El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. Sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions using a single site from the warm pool (ODP 806) and two sites from the cold tongue (ODP 846, 847) suggest that the temperature of the warm pool was "stable" throughout the Plio-Pleistocene, whereas the cold tongue was much warmer in the Pliocene and subsequently cooled. The absence of an east-west Pacific temperature gradient during the early Pliocene is the basis for the "permanent El Niño" hypothesis. However, annually-resolved fossil coral and evaporite records found 3-7 years climate variability during the Pliocene warm period and late Miocene, challenging a "permanent" or invariant climate state. Here we present a multi-proxy (TEX86, UK37, Mg/Ca), multi-site reconstruction of the late Miocene - Pliocene (ca. 12 Ma - 3 Ma) SST in the Pacific warm pool (ODP 806, ODP 769 in the Sulu Sea, ODP 1143 in the South China Sea) and the cold tongue (ODP 850, 849, 846). Our results show that the cold tongue was even warmer in the late Miocene than the Pliocene, and that the warm pool cooled 2-3°C from the late Miocene into the Pliocene - in contrast to the invariant character previously assumed. Temperature comparison between different sites suggests that the warm pool may have expanded in size in the late Miocene. Although eastern and western ends of the tropical Pacific were warmer, a persistent, but low east-west temperature gradient (~3°C) is apparent. This agrees with recent studies which have shown ENSO-related frequency of climate change in the late Miocene and early Pliocene.

Nearly synchronous climate change in the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial termination

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benson, L.; Burdett, J.; Lund, S.; Kashgarian, Michaele; Mensing, S.

1997-01-01

The climate of the North Atlantic region underwent a series of abrupt cold/warm oscillations when the ice sheets of the Northern Hemisphere retreated during the last glacial termination (17.711.5 kyr ago). Evidence for these oscillations, which are recorded in European terrestrial sediments as the Oldest Dryas/Bolling/Older Dryas/Allerod/Younger Dryas vegetational sequence, has been found in Greenland ice cores. The geographical extent of many of these oscillations is not well known, but the last major cold event (the Younger Dryas) seems to have been global in extent. Here we present evidence of four major oscillations in the hydrological balance of the Owens basin, California, that occurred during the last glacial termination. Dry events in western North America occurred at approximately the same time as cold events recorded in Greenland ice, with transitions between climate regimes in the two regions taking place within a few hundred years of each other. Our observations thus support recent climate simulations which indicate that cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean results in cooling of the North Pacific Ocean which, in turn, leads to a drier climate in western North America.

A primer on clothing systems for cold-weather field work

USGS Publications Warehouse

Denner, J.C.

1993-01-01

Hypothermia in cold environments can be prevented by physiological adaptation and by the proper use of cold weather clothing. The human body adjusts to cold temperature by increasing the rates of basal metabolism, specific dynamic action, and physical exercise. Heat loss is reduced by vasoconstriction. Clothing systems for cold weather reduce loss by providing insulation and protection from the elements. Satisfactory cold- weather clothing is constructed of wool fabrics or the synthetic fibers polypropylene and polyester. Outerwear suitable for cold climates is insulated with down, high-loft polyester fiberfills, or the new synthetic thin insulators. (USGS)

Science questions for implementing climate refugia for cold-water fish as an adaptation strateby

EPA Science Inventory

Managing climate refugia has been proposed as a potential adaptation strategy that may be useful for protecting the biotic integrity of watersheds under a changing climate. Paleo-ecological evidence suggests that refugia allowed species to persist through prior periods of climate...

The role of Xylella fastidiosa cold shock proteins in Pierce’s disease of grapes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Pierce’s disease of grapevine, caused by the bacterial pathogen Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is limited to warmer climates, and plant infection can be eliminated by cold winter conditions. Milder winters can increase the likelihood of pathogen persistence from one growing season to the next. Cold adaptat...

Can Winter-Active Bumblebees Survive the Cold? Assessing the Cold Tolerance of Bombus terrestris audax and the Effects of Pollen Feeding

PubMed Central

Owen, Emily L.; Bale, Jeffrey S.; Hayward, Scott A. L.

2013-01-01

There is now considerable evidence that climate change is disrupting the phenology of key pollinator species. The recently reported UK winter activity of the bumblebee Bombus terrestris brings a novel set of thermal challenges to bumblebee workers that would typically only be exposed to summer conditions. Here we assess the ability of workers to survive acute and chronic cold stress (via lower lethal temperatures and lower lethal times at 0°C), the capacity for rapid cold hardening (RCH) and the influence of diet (pollen versus nectar consumption) on supercooling points (SCP). Comparisons are made with chronic cold stress indices and SCPs in queen bumblebees. Results showed worker bees were able to survive acute temperatures likely to be experienced in a mild winter, with queens significantly more tolerant to chronic cold temperature stress. The first evidence of RCH in any Hymenoptera is shown. In addition, dietary manipulation indicated the consumption of pollen significantly increased SCP temperature. These results are discussed in the light of winter active bumblebees and climate change. PMID:24224036

IEA HPT ANNEX 41 – Cold climate heat pumps: US country report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groll, Eckhard A.; Baxter, Van D.

In 2012 the International Energy Agency (IEA) Heat Pump Programme (now the Heat Pump Technologies (HPT) program) established Annex 41 to investigate technology solutions to improve performance of heat pumps for cold climates. Four IEA HPT member countries are participating in the Annex – Austria, Canada, Japan, and the United States (U.S.). The principal focus of Annex 41 is on electrically driven air-source heat pumps (ASHP) since that system type has the lowest installation cost of all heat pump alternatives. They also have the most significant performance challenges given their inherent efficiency and capacity issues at cold outdoor temperatures. Availabilitymore » of ASHPs with improved low ambient performance would help bring about a much stronger heat pump market presence in cold areas, which today rely predominantly on fossil fuel furnace heating systems.« less

Climate refugia for salmon in a changing world

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of endothermic organisms such as cold-water salmon and trout species (salmonids). Recently published projected declines in salmonid distributions under future climates range from modest t...

Enhanced aridity and atmospheric high-pressure stability over the western Mediterranean during the North Atlantic cold events of the past 50 k.y.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Combourieu Nebout, N.; Turon, J. L.; Zahn, R.; Capotondi, L.; Londeix, L.; Pahnke, K.

2002-10-01

Multiproxy paleoenvironmental records (pollen and planktonic isotope) from Ocean Drilling Program Site 976 (Alboran Sea) document rapid ocean and climate variations during the last glacial that follow the Dansgaard-Oeschger climate oscillations seen in the Greenland ice core records, thus suggesting a close link of the Mediterranean climate swings with North Atlantic climates. Continental conditions rapidly oscillated through cold-arid and warm-wet conditions in the course of stadial-interstadial climate jumps. At the time of Heinrich events, i.e., maximum meltwater flux to the North Atlantic, western Mediterranean marine microflora and microfauna show rapid cooling correlated with increasing continental dryness. Enhanced aridity conceivably points to prolonged wintertime stability of atmospheric high-pressure systems over the southwestern Mediterranean in conjunction with cooling of the North Atlantic.

2012/13 abnormal cold winter in Japan associated with Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation and Local Sea Surface Temperature over the Sea of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ando, Y.; Ogi, M.; Tachibana, Y.

2013-12-01

On Japan, wintertime cold wave has social, economic, psychological and political impacts because of the lack of atomic power stations in the era of post Fukushima world. The colder winter is the more electricity is needed. Wintertime weather of Japan and its prediction has come under the world spotlight. The winter of 2012/13 in Japan was abnormally cold, and such a cold winter has persisted for 3 years. Wintertime climate of Japan is governed by some dominant modes of the large-scale atmospheric circulations. Yasunaka and Hanawa (2008) demonstrated that the two dominant modes - Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) pattern - account for about 65% of the interannual variation of the wintertime mean surface air temperature of Japan. A negative AO brings about cold winter in Japan. In addition, a negative WP also brings about cold winter in Japan. Looking back to the winter of 2012/13, both the negative AO and negative WP continued from October through December. If the previous studies were correct, it would have been extremely very cold from October through December. In fact, in December, in accordance with previous studies, it was colder than normal. Contrary to the expectation, in October and November, it was, however, warmer than normal. This discrepancy signifies that an additional hidden circumstance that heats Japan overwhelms these large-scale atmospheric circulations that cool Japan. In this study, we therefore seek an additional cause of wintertime climate of Japan particularly focusing 2012 as well as the AO and WP. We found that anomalously warm oceanic temperature surrounding Japan overwhelmed influences of the AO or WP. Unlike the inland climate, the island climate can be strongly influenced by surrounding ocean temperature, suggesting that large-scale atmospheric patterns alone do not determine the climate of islands. (a) Time series of a 5-day running mean AO index (blue) as defined by Ogi et al., (2004), who called it the SVNAM index. For reference, the conventional AO index is shown by the gray line. (b) a 5-day running mean WP index, (c) area-averaged Surface Air Temperature anomalies in Japan, (d) Air Temperature anomalies, (e) heat flux anomalies, and (f) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies. The boxed area on the Sea of Japan indicates the area in which the (d)-(f) indexes were calculated.

Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate

DOE PAGES

Gao, Yang; Leung, L. Ruby; Lu, Jian; ...

2015-03-30

This study examines future changes of cold air outbreaks (CAO) using a multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 as well as regional high resolution climate simulations. In the future, while robust decrease of CAO duration dominates in most regions, the magnitude of decrease over northwestern U.S. is much smaller than the surrounding regions. We identified statistically significant increases in sea level pressure during CAO events centering over Yukon, Alaska, and Gulf of Alaska that advects continental cold air to northwestern U.S., leading to blocking and CAO events. Changes in large scale circulationmore » contribute to about 50% of the enhanced sea level pressure anomaly conducive to CAO in northwestern U.S. in the future. High resolution regional simulations revealed potential contributions of increased existing snowpack to increased CAO in the near future over the Rocky Mountain, southwestern U.S., and Great Lakes areas through surface albedo effects, despite winter mean snow water equivalent decreases in the future. Overall, the multi-model projections emphasize that cold extremes do not completely disappear in a warming climate. Concomitant with the relatively smaller reduction in CAO events in northwestern U.S., the top 5 most extreme CAO events may still occur in the future, and wind chill warning will continue to have societal impacts in that region.« less

Effective climate refugia for salmon in a changing world

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of endothermic organisms such as cold-water salmon and trout species (salmonids). Recently published projected declines in salmonid distributions under future climates range from modest t...

Climatic niche and neutral genetic diversity of the six Iberian pine species: a retrospective and prospective view.

PubMed

Soto, A; Robledo-Arnuncio, J J; González-Martínez, S C; Smouse, P E; Alía, R

2010-04-01

Quaternary climatic fluctuations have left contrasting historical footprints on the neutral genetic diversity patterns of existing populations of different tree species. We should expect the demography, and consequently the neutral genetic structure, of taxa less tolerant to particular climatic extremes to be more sensitive to long-term climate fluctuations. We explore this hypothesis here by sampling all six pine species found in the Iberian Peninsula (2464 individuals, 105 populations), using a common set of chloroplast microsatellite markers, and by looking at the association between neutral genetic diversity and species-specific climatic requirements. We found large variation in neutral genetic diversity and structure among Iberian pines, with cold-enduring mountain species (Pinus uncinata, P. sylvestris and P. nigra) showing substantially greater diversity than thermophilous taxa (P. pinea and P. halepensis). Within species, we observed a significant positive correlation between population genetic diversity and summer precipitation for some of the mountain pines. The observed pattern is consistent with the hypotheses that: (i) more thermophilous species have been subjected to stronger demographic fluctuations in the past, as a consequence of their maladaptation to recurrent glacial cold stages; and (ii) altitudinal migrations have allowed the maintenance of large effective population sizes and genetic variation in cold-tolerant species, especially in more humid regions. In the light of these results and hypotheses, we discuss some potential genetic consequences of impending climate change.

Repeated short climatic change affects the epidermal differentiation program and leads to matrix remodeling in a human organotypic skin model.

PubMed

Boutrand, Laetitia-Barbollat; Thépot, Amélie; Muther, Charlotte; Boher, Aurélie; Robic, Julie; Guéré, Christelle; Vié, Katell; Damour, Odile; Lamartine, Jérôme

2017-01-01

Human skin is subject to frequent changes in ambient temperature and humidity and needs to cope with these environmental modifications. To decipher the molecular response of human skin to repeated climatic change, a versatile model of skin equivalent subject to "hot-wet" (40°C, 80% relative humidity [RH]) or "cold-dry" (10°C, 40% RH) climatic stress repeated daily was used. To obtain an exhaustive view of the molecular mechanisms elicited by climatic change, large-scale gene expression DNA microarray analysis was performed and modulated function was determined by bioinformatic annotation. This analysis revealed several functions, including epidermal differentiation and extracellular matrix, impacted by repeated variations in climatic conditions. Some of these molecular changes were confirmed by histological examination and protein expression. Both treatments (hot-wet and cold-dry) reduced the expression of genes encoding collagens, laminin, and proteoglycans, suggesting a profound remodeling of the extracellular matrix. Strong induction of the entire family of late cornified envelope genes after cold-dry exposure, confirmed at protein level, was also observed. These changes correlated with an increase in epidermal differentiation markers such as corneodesmosin and a thickening of the stratum corneum, indicating possible implementation of defense mechanisms against dehydration. This study for the first time reveals the complex pattern of molecular response allowing adaption of human skin to repeated change in its climatic environment.

Comparison of Shoulder Range of Motion, Strength, and Playing Time in Uninjured High School Baseball Pitchers Who Reside in Warm- and Cold-Weather Climates

PubMed Central

Kaplan, Kevin M.; ElAttrache, Neal S.; Jobe, Frank W.; Morrey, Bernard F.; Kaufman, Kenton R.; Hurd, Wendy J.

2014-01-01

Background There is an assumption that baseball athletes who reside in warm-weather climates experience larger magnitude adaptations in throwing shoulder motion and strength compared with their peers who reside in cold-weather climates. Hypotheses (1) The warm-weather climate (WWC) group would exhibit more pronounced shoulder motion and strength adaptations than the cold-weather climate (CWC) group, and (2) the WWC group would participate in pitching activities for a greater proportion of the year than the CWC group, with the time spent pitching predicting throwing shoulder motion and strength in both groups. Study Design Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods One hundred uninjured high school pitchers (50 each WWC, CWC) were recruited. Rotational shoulder motion and isometric strength were measured and participants reported the number of months per year they pitched. To identify differences between groups, t tests were performed; linear regression was used to determine the influence of pitching volume on shoulder motion and strength. Results The WWC group pitched more months per year than athletes from the CWC group, with the number of months spent pitching negatively related to internal rotation motion and external rotation strength. The WWC group exhibited greater shoulder range of motion in all planes compared with the CWC group, as well as significantly lower external rotation strength and external/internal rotation strength ratios. There was no difference in internal rotation strength between groups, nor a difference in the magnitude of side-to-side differences for strength or motion measures. Conclusion Athletes who reside in cold- and warm-weather climates exhibit differences in throwing shoulder motion and strength, related in part to the number of months spent participating in pitching activities. The amount of time spent participating in pitching activities and the magnitude of range of motion and strength adaptations in athletes who reside in warm-weather climates may make these athletes more susceptible to throwing-related injuries. PMID:21051421

Climate variability and the energetic pathways of evolution: the origin of endothermy in mammals and birds.

PubMed

Portner, Hans O

2004-01-01

Large-scale climate oscillations in earth's history have influenced the directions of evolution, last but not least, through mass extinction events. This analysis tries to identify some unifying forces behind the course of evolution that favored an increase in organismic complexity and performance, paralleled by an increase in energy turnover, and finally led to endothermy. The analysis builds on the recent concept of oxygen-limited thermal tolerance and on the hypothesis that unifying principles exist in the temperature-dependent biochemical design of the eukaryotic cell in animals. The comparison of extant water-breathing and air-breathing animal species from various climates provides a cause-and-effect understanding of the trade-offs and constraints in thermal adaptation and their energetic consequences. It is hypothesized that the high costs of functional adaptation to fluctuating temperatures, especially in the cold (cold eurythermy), cause an increase in energy turnover and, at the same time, mobility and agility. These costs are associated with elevated mitochondrial capacities at minimized levels of activation enthalpies for proton leakage. Cold eurythermy is seen as a precondition for the survival of evolutionary crises elicited by repeated cooling events during extreme climate fluctuations. The costs of cold eurythermy appear as the single most important reason why metazoan evolution led to life forms with high energy turnover. They also explain why dinosaurs were able to live in subpolar climates. Finally, they give insight into the pathways, benefits, and trade-offs involved in the evolution of constant, elevated body temperature maintained by endothermy. Eurythermy, which encompasses cold tolerance, is thus hypothesized to be the "missing link" between ectothermy and endothermy. Body temperatures between 32 degrees and 42 degrees C in mammals and birds then result from trade-offs between the limiting capacities of ventilation and circulation and the evolutionary trend to maximize performance at the warm end of the thermal tolerance window.

Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.

PubMed

Hajat, Shakoor; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Heaviside, Clare; Eggen, Bernd

2014-07-01

The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere. Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled. A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Differentiating Hydrothermal, Pedogenic, and Glacial Weathering in a Cold Volcanic Mars-Analog Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scudder, N. A.; Horgan, B.; Havig, J.; Rutledge, A.; Rampe, E. B.; Hamilton, T.

2016-01-01

Although the current cold, dry environment of Mars extends back through much of its history, its earliest periods experienced significant water- related surface activity. Both geomorphic features (e.g., paleolakes, deltas, and river valleys) and hydrous mineral detections (e.g., clays and salts) have historically been interpreted to imply a "warm and wet" early Mars climate. More recently, atmospheric modeling studies have struggled to produce early climate conditions with temperatures above 0degC, leading some studies to propose a "cold and icy" early Mars dominated by widespread glaciation with transient melting. However, the alteration mineralogy produced in subglacial environments is not well understood, so the extent to which cold climate glacial weathering can produce the diverse alteration mineralogy observed on Mars is unknown. This summer, we will be conducting a field campaign in a glacial weathering environment in the Cascade Range, OR in order to determine the types of minerals that these environments produce. However, we must first disentangle the effects of glacial weathering from other significant alteration processes. Here we attempt a first understanding of glacial weathering by differentiating rocks and sediments weathered by hydrothermal, pedogenic, and glacial weathering processes in the Cascades volcanic range.

Non-native and native organisms moving into high elevation and high latitude ecosystems in an era of climate change: new challenges for ecology and conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pauchard, Aníbal; Albihn, Ann; Alexander, Jake; Burgess, Treena; Daehler, Curt; Essl, Franz; Evengard, Birgitta; Greenwood, Greg; Haider, Sylvia; Lenoir, Jonathan; McDougall, K.; Milbau, Ann; Muths, Erin L.; Nunez, Martin; Pellissier, Lois; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rew, Lisa; Robertson, Mark; Sanders, Nathan; Kueffer, Christoph

2016-01-01

Cold environments at high elevation and high latitude are often viewed as resistant to biological invasions. However, climate warming, land use change and associated increased connectivity all increase the risk of biological invasions in these environments. Here we present a summary of the key discussions of the workshop ‘Biosecurity in Mountains and Northern Ecosystems: Current Status and Future Challenges’ (Flen, Sweden, 1–3 June 2015). The aims of the workshop were to (1) increase awareness about the growing importance of species expansion—both non-native and native—at high elevation and high latitude with climate change, (2) review existing knowledge about invasion risks in these areas, and (3) encourage more research on how species will move and interact in cold environments, the consequences for biodiversity, and animal and human health and wellbeing. The diversity of potential and actual invaders reported at the workshop and the likely interactions between them create major challenges for managers of cold environments. However, since these cold environments have experienced fewer invasions when compared with many warmer, more populated environments, prevention has a real chance of success, especially if it is coupled with prioritisation schemes for targeting invaders likely to have greatest impact. Communication and co-operation between cold environment regions will facilitate rapid response, and maximise the use of limited research and management resources.

Detecting regional patterns of changing CO2 flux in Alaska

PubMed Central

Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Wofsy, Steven C.; Koven, Charles D.; Sweeney, Colm; Lawrence, David M.; Lindaas, Jakob; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Miller, Charles E.

2016-01-01

With rapid changes in climate and the seasonal amplitude of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Arctic, it is critical that we detect and quantify the underlying processes controlling the changing amplitude of CO2 to better predict carbon cycle feedbacks in the Arctic climate system. We use satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO2 with climatically forced CO2 flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan carbon cycle signals as future warming evolves. We find that current satellite remote sensing technologies can detect changing uptake accurately during the growing season but lack sufficient cold season coverage and near-surface sensitivity to constrain annual carbon balance changes at regional scale. Airborne strategies that target regular vertical profile measurements within continental interiors are more sensitive to regional flux deeper into the cold season but currently lack sufficient spatial coverage throughout the entire cold season. Thus, the current CO2 observing network is unlikely to detect potentially large CO2 sources associated with deep permafrost thaw and cold season respiration expected over the next 50 y. Although continuity of current observations is vital, strategies and technologies focused on cold season measurements (active remote sensing, aircraft, and tall towers) and systematic sampling of vertical profiles across continental interiors over the full annual cycle are required to detect the onset of carbon release from thawing permafrost. PMID:27354511

Detecting regional patterns of changing CO 2 flux in Alaska

DOE PAGES

Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Commane, Roisin; Wofsy, Steven C.; ...

2016-06-27

With rapid changes in climate and the seasonal amplitude of carbon dioxide (CO 2) in the Arctic, it is critical that we detect and quantify the underlying processes controlling the changing amplitude of CO 2 to better predict carbon cycle feedbacks in the Arctic climate system. We use satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO 2 with climatically forced CO 2 flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan carbon cycle signals as future warming evolves. We find that current satellite remote sensing technologies can detect changing uptake accurately during the growing season but lack sufficient cold season coverage andmore » near-surface sensitivity to constrain annual carbon balance changes at regional scale. Airborne strategies that target regular vertical profile measurements within continental interiors are more sensitive to regional flux deeper into the cold season but currently lack sufficient spatial coverage throughout the entire cold season. Thus, the current CO 2 observing network is unlikely to detect potentially large CO 2 sources associated with deep permafrost thaw and cold season respiration expected over the next 50 y. In conclusion, although continuity of current observations is vital, strategies and technologies focused on cold season measurements (active remote sensing, aircraft, and tall towers) and systematic sampling of vertical profiles across continental interiors over the full annual cycle are required to detect the onset of carbon release from thawing permafrost.« less

Cold Climate and Retrofit Applications for Air-to-Air Heat Pumps

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baxter, Van D

2015-01-01

Air source heat pumps (ASHP) including air-to-air ASHPs are easily applied to buildings almost anywhere for new construction as well as retrofits or renovations. They are widespread in milder climate regions but their use in cold regions is hampered due to low heating efficiency and capacity at cold outdoor temperatures. Retrofitting air-to-air ASHPs to existing buildings is relatively easy if the building already has an air distribution system. For buildings without such systems alternative approaches are necessary. Examples are ductless, minisplit heat pumps or central heat pumps coupled to small diameter, high velocity (SDHV) air distribution systems. This article presentsmore » two subjects: 1) a summary of R&D investigations aimed at improving the cold weather performance of ASHPs, and 2) a brief discussion of building retrofit options using air-to-air ASHP systems.« less

Role of Acclimatization in Weather-Related Human Mortality During the Transition Seasons of Autumn and Spring in a Thermally Extreme Mid-Latitude Continental Climate

PubMed Central

de Freitas, Christopher R.; Grigorieva, Elena A.

2015-01-01

Human mortality is closely related to natural climate-determined levels of thermal environmental stress and the resulting thermophysiological strain. Most climate-mortality research has focused on seasonal extremes during winter and summer when mortality is the highest, while relatively little attention has been paid to mortality during the transitional seasons of autumn and spring. The body acclimatizes to heat in the summer and cold in winter and readjusts through acclimatization during the transitions between the two during which time the body experiences the thermophysiological strain of readjustment. To better understand the influences of weather on mortality through the acclimatization process, the aim here is to examine the periods that link very cold and very warms seasons. The study uses the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI), which is a comparative measure of short-term thermophysiological impact on the body. ATSI centers on heat exchange with the body’s core via the respiratory system, which cannot be protected. The analysis is based on data for a major city in the climatic region of the Russian Far East characterized by very hot summers and extremely cold winters. The results show that although mortality peaks in winter (January) and is at its lowest in summer (August), there is not a smooth rise through autumn nor a smooth decline through spring. A secondary peak occurs in autumn (October) with a smaller jump in May. This suggests the acclimatization from warm-to-cold produces more thermophysiological strain than the transition from cold-to-warm. The study shows that ATSI is a useful metric for quantifying the extent to which biophysical adaptation plays a role in increased strain on the body during re-acclimatization and for this reason is a more appropriate climatic indictor than air temperature alone. The work gives useful bioclimatic information on risks involved in transitional seasons in regions characterized by climatic extremes. This could be handy in planning and managing health services to the public and measures that might be used to help mitigate impacts. PMID:26703633

Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage for Seasonal Thermal Energy Balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rostampour, Vahab; Bloemendal, Martin; Keviczky, Tamas

2017-04-01

Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) systems allow storing large quantities of thermal energy in subsurface aquifers enabling significant energy savings and greenhouse gas reductions. This is achieved by injection and extraction of water into and from saturated underground aquifers, simultaneously. An ATES system consists of two wells and operates in a seasonal mode. One well is used for the storage of cold water, the other one for the storage of heat. In warm seasons, cold water is extracted from the cold well to provide cooling to a building. The temperature of the extracted cold water increases as it passes through the building climate control systems and then gets simultaneously, injected back into the warm well. This procedure is reversed during cold seasons where the flow direction is reversed such that the warmer water is extracted from the warm well to provide heating to a building. From the perspective of building climate comfort systems, an ATES system is considered as a seasonal storage system that can be a heat source or sink, or as a storage for thermal energy. This leads to an interesting and challenging optimal control problem of the building climate comfort system that can be used to develop a seasonal-based energy management strategy. In [1] we develop a control-oriented model to predict thermal energy balance in a building climate control system integrated with ATES. Such a model however cannot cope with off-nominal but realistic situations such as when the wells are completely depleted, or the start-up phase of newly installed wells, etc., leading to direct usage of aquifer ambient temperature. Building upon our previous work in [1], we here extend the mathematical model for ATES system to handle the above mentioned more realistic situations. Using our improved models, one can more precisely predict system behavior and apply optimal control strategies to manage the building climate comfort along with energy savings and greenhouse gas reductions. [1] V. Rostampour and T. Keviczky, "Probabilistic Energy Management for Building Climate Comfort in Smart Thermal Grids with Seasonal Storage Systems," arXiv [math.OC], 10-Nov-2016.

Role of Acclimatization in Weather-Related Human Mortality During the Transition Seasons of Autumn and Spring in a Thermally Extreme Mid-Latitude Continental Climate.

PubMed

de Freitas, Christopher R; Grigorieva, Elena A

2015-11-26

Human mortality is closely related to natural climate-determined levels of thermal environmental stress and the resulting thermophysiological strain. Most climate-mortality research has focused on seasonal extremes during winter and summer when mortality is the highest, while relatively little attention has been paid to mortality during the transitional seasons of autumn and spring. The body acclimatizes to heat in the summer and cold in winter and readjusts through acclimatization during the transitions between the two during which time the body experiences the thermophysiological strain of readjustment. To better understand the influences of weather on mortality through the acclimatization process, the aim here is to examine the periods that link very cold and very warms seasons. The study uses the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI), which is a comparative measure of short-term thermophysiological impact on the body. ATSI centers on heat exchange with the body’s core via the respiratory system, which cannot be protected. The analysis is based on data for a major city in the climatic region of the Russian Far East characterized by very hot summers and extremely cold winters. The results show that although mortality peaks in winter (January) and is at its lowest in summer (August), there is not a smooth rise through autumn nor a smooth decline through spring. A secondary peak occurs in autumn (October) with a smaller jump in May. This suggests the acclimatization from warm-to-cold produces more thermophysiological strain than the transition from cold-to-warm. The study shows that ATSI is a useful metric for quantifying the extent to which biophysical adaptation plays a role in increased strain on the body during re-acclimatization and for this reason is a more appropriate climatic indictor than air temperature alone. The work gives useful bioclimatic information on risks involved in transitional seasons in regions characterized by climatic extremes. This could be handy in planning and managing health services to the public and measures that might be used to help mitigate impacts.

Evaluation of the tourism climate in the Hexi Corridor of northwest China's Gansu Province during 1980-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fuxian; Zhang, Mingjun; Wang, Shengjie; Qiang, Fang; Che, Yanjun; Wang, Jie

2017-08-01

As a pivotal section of the Silk Road in northwest China, the Hexi Corridor is a popular tourist destination. In this study, the tourism climate conditions in this region were discussed using the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and the Climate-Tourism/Transfer-information-Scheme (CTIS) from 1980 to 2012. Overall, cold or cool stress was prevalent in the area, and the optimal travel period was from May to September. With global warming, the annual numbers of cumulative days with relatively cold conditions decreased, and the annual numbers of cumulative days with comfortable and relatively hot conditions increased. Two typical stations, Wushaoling and Dunhuang, were compared and analysed for their tourism climate information according to the frequency of PET and CTIS conditions, respectively. In addition, regional variations in the tourism climate conditions based on geographic information systems (GIS) were investigated during the optimal travel period.

Finalize field testing of cold climate heat pump (CCHP) based on tandem vapor injection compressors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, Bo; Baxter, Van D.; Abdelaziz, Omar

2017-03-01

This report describes the system diagram and control algorithm of a prototype air-source cold climate heat pump (CCHP) using tandem vapor injection (VI) compressors. The prototype was installed in Fairbanks, Alaska and underwent field testing starting in 09/2016. The field testing results of the past six months, including compressor run time fractions, measured COPs and heating capacities, etc., are presented as a function of the ambient temperature. Two lessons learned are also reported.

In Situ Warming and Soil Venting to Enhance the Biodegradation of JP-4 in Cold Climates: A Critical Study and Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-12-01

1178-1180 (1991). Atlas , Ronald M. and Richard Bartha . Microbial Ecology : Fundamentals and Applications. 3d ed. Redwood City CA: The Benjamin/Cummings...technique called bioventing. In cold climates, in situ bioremediation is limited to the summer when soil temperatures are sufficient to support microbial ...actively warmed the soil -- warm water circulation and heat tape; the other passively warmed the plot with insulatory covers. Microbial respiration (02

Validation of standard ASTM F2732 and comparison with ISO 11079 with respect to comfort temperature ratings for cold protective clothing.

PubMed

Gao, Chuansi; Lin, Li-Yen; Halder, Amitava; Kuklane, Kalev; Holmér, Ingvar

2015-01-01

American standard ASTM F2732 estimates the lowest environmental temperature for thermal comfort for cold weather protective clothing. International standard ISO 11079 serves the same purpose but expresses cold stress in terms of required clothing insulation for a given cold climate. The objective of this study was to validate and compare the temperature ratings using human subject tests at two levels of metabolic rates (2 and 4 MET corresponding to 116.4 and 232.8 W/m(2)). Nine young and healthy male subjects participated in the cold exposure at 3.4 and -30.6 °C. The results showed that both standards predict similar temperature ratings for an intrinsic clothing insulation of 1.89 clo and for 2 MET activity. The predicted temperature rating for 2 MET activity is consistent with test subjects' thermophysiological responses, perceived thermal sensation and thermal comfort. For 4 MET activity, however, the whole body responses were on the cold side, particularly the responses of the extremities. ASTM F2732 is also limited due to its omission and simplification of three climatic variables (air velocity, radiant temperature and relative humidity) and exposure time in the cold which are of practical importance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Association of cold temperature and mortality and effect modification in the subtropical plateau monsoon climate of Yuxi, China.

PubMed

Ding, Zan; Li, Liujiu; Wei, Ruqin; Dong, Wenya; Guo, Pi; Yang, Shaoyi; Liu, Ju; Zhang, Qingying

2016-10-01

Consistent evidence has shown excess mortality associated with cold temperature, but some important details of the cold-mortality association (e.g. slope and threshold) have not been adequately investigated and few studies focused on the cold effect in high-altitude areas of developing countries. We attempted to quantify the cold effect on mortality, identify the details, and evaluate effect modification in the distinct subtropical plateau monsoon climate of Yuxi, a high plateau region in southwest China. From daily mortality and meteorological data during 2009-2014, we used a quasi-Poisson model combined with a "natural cubic spline-natural cubic spline" distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the temperature-mortality relationship and then a simpler "hockey-stick" model to investigate the cold effect and details. Cold temperature was associated with increased mortality, and the relative risk of cold effect (1st relative to 10th temperature percentile) on non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality for lag 0-21 days was 1.40 (95% confidence interval: 1.19-1.66), 1.61 (1.28-2.02), and 1.13 (0.78-1.64), respectively. A 1°C decrease below a cold threshold of 9.1°C (8th percentile) for lags 0-21 was associated with a 7.35% (3.75-11.09%) increase in non-accidental mortality. The cold-mortality association was not significantly affected by cause-specific mortality, gender, age, marital status, ethnicity, occupation, or previous history of hypertension. There is an adverse impact of cold on mortality in Yuxi, China, and a temperature of 9.1°C is an important cut-off for cold-related mortality for residents. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Plasticity and local adaptation explain lizard cold tolerance.

PubMed

Card, Daren C; Schield, Drew R; Castoe, Todd A

2018-05-01

How does climate variation limit the range of species and what does it take for species to colonize new regions? In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Campbell-Staton et al. () address these broad questions by investigating cold tolerance adaptation in the green anole lizard (Anolis carolinensis) across a latitudinal transect. By integrating physiological data, gene expression data and acclimation experiments, the authors disentangle the mechanisms underlying cold adaptation. They first establish that cold tolerance adaptation in Anolis lizards follows the predictions of the oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance hypothesis, which states that organisms are limited by temperature thresholds at which oxygen supply cannot meet demand. They then explore the drivers of cold tolerance at a finer scale, finding evidence that northern populations are adapted to cooler thermal regimes and that both phenotypic plasticity and heritable genetic variation contribute to cold tolerance. The integration of physiological and gene expression data further highlights the varied mechanisms that drive cold tolerance adaptation in Anolis lizards, including both supply-side and demand-side adaptations that improve oxygen economy. Altogether, their work provides new insight into the physiological and genetic mechanisms underlying adaptation to new climatic niches and demonstrates that cold tolerance in northern lizard populations is achieved through the synergy of physiological plasticity and local genetic adaptation for thermal performance. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cold season emissions dominate the Arctic tundra methane budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zona, Donatella; Gioli, Beniamino; Commane, Róisín; Lindaas, Jakob; Wofsy, Steven C.; Miller, Charles E.; Dinardo, Steven J.; Dengel, Sigrid; Sweeney, Colm; Karion, Anna; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Henderson, John M.; Murphy, Patrick C.; Goodrich, Jordan P.; Moreaux, Virginie; Liljedahl, Anna; Watts, Jennifer D.; Kimball, John S.; Lipson, David A.; Oechel, Walter C.

2016-01-01

Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are major global sources of methane (CH4); hence, it is important to understand the seasonal and climatic controls on CH4 emissions from these systems. Here, we report year-round CH4 emissions from Alaskan Arctic tundra eddy flux sites and regional fluxes derived from aircraft data. We find that emissions during the cold season (September to May) account for ≥50% of the annual CH4 flux, with the highest emissions from noninundated upland tundra. A major fraction of cold season emissions occur during the "zero curtain" period, when subsurface soil temperatures are poised near 0 °C. The zero curtain may persist longer than the growing season, and CH4 emissions are enhanced when the duration is extended by a deep thawed layer as can occur with thick snow cover. Regional scale fluxes of CH4 derived from aircraft data demonstrate the large spatial extent of late season CH4 emissions. Scaled to the circumpolar Arctic, cold season fluxes from tundra total 12 ± 5 (95% confidence interval) Tg CH4 y-1, ∼25% of global emissions from extratropical wetlands, or ∼6% of total global wetland methane emissions. The dominance of late-season emissions, sensitivity to soil environmental conditions, and importance of dry tundra are not currently simulated in most global climate models. Because Arctic warming disproportionally impacts the cold season, our results suggest that higher cold-season CH4 emissions will result from observed and predicted increases in snow thickness, active layer depth, and soil temperature, representing important positive feedbacks on climate warming.

Cold season emissions dominate the Arctic tundra methane budget.

PubMed

Zona, Donatella; Gioli, Beniamino; Commane, Róisín; Lindaas, Jakob; Wofsy, Steven C; Miller, Charles E; Dinardo, Steven J; Dengel, Sigrid; Sweeney, Colm; Karion, Anna; Chang, Rachel Y-W; Henderson, John M; Murphy, Patrick C; Goodrich, Jordan P; Moreaux, Virginie; Liljedahl, Anna; Watts, Jennifer D; Kimball, John S; Lipson, David A; Oechel, Walter C

2016-01-05

Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are major global sources of methane (CH4); hence, it is important to understand the seasonal and climatic controls on CH4 emissions from these systems. Here, we report year-round CH4 emissions from Alaskan Arctic tundra eddy flux sites and regional fluxes derived from aircraft data. We find that emissions during the cold season (September to May) account for ≥ 50% of the annual CH4 flux, with the highest emissions from noninundated upland tundra. A major fraction of cold season emissions occur during the "zero curtain" period, when subsurface soil temperatures are poised near 0 °C. The zero curtain may persist longer than the growing season, and CH4 emissions are enhanced when the duration is extended by a deep thawed layer as can occur with thick snow cover. Regional scale fluxes of CH4 derived from aircraft data demonstrate the large spatial extent of late season CH4 emissions. Scaled to the circumpolar Arctic, cold season fluxes from tundra total 12 ± 5 (95% confidence interval) Tg CH4 y(-1), ∼ 25% of global emissions from extratropical wetlands, or ∼ 6% of total global wetland methane emissions. The dominance of late-season emissions, sensitivity to soil environmental conditions, and importance of dry tundra are not currently simulated in most global climate models. Because Arctic warming disproportionally impacts the cold season, our results suggest that higher cold-season CH4 emissions will result from observed and predicted increases in snow thickness, active layer depth, and soil temperature, representing important positive feedbacks on climate warming.

Cold season emissions dominate the Arctic tundra methane budget

PubMed Central

Zona, Donatella; Gioli, Beniamino; Lindaas, Jakob; Wofsy, Steven C.; Miller, Charles E.; Dinardo, Steven J.; Dengel, Sigrid; Sweeney, Colm; Karion, Anna; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Henderson, John M.; Murphy, Patrick C.; Goodrich, Jordan P.; Moreaux, Virginie; Liljedahl, Anna; Watts, Jennifer D.; Kimball, John S.; Lipson, David A.; Oechel, Walter C.

2016-01-01

Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are major global sources of methane (CH4); hence, it is important to understand the seasonal and climatic controls on CH4 emissions from these systems. Here, we report year-round CH4 emissions from Alaskan Arctic tundra eddy flux sites and regional fluxes derived from aircraft data. We find that emissions during the cold season (September to May) account for ≥50% of the annual CH4 flux, with the highest emissions from noninundated upland tundra. A major fraction of cold season emissions occur during the “zero curtain” period, when subsurface soil temperatures are poised near 0 °C. The zero curtain may persist longer than the growing season, and CH4 emissions are enhanced when the duration is extended by a deep thawed layer as can occur with thick snow cover. Regional scale fluxes of CH4 derived from aircraft data demonstrate the large spatial extent of late season CH4 emissions. Scaled to the circumpolar Arctic, cold season fluxes from tundra total 12 ± 5 (95% confidence interval) Tg CH4 y−1, ∼25% of global emissions from extratropical wetlands, or ∼6% of total global wetland methane emissions. The dominance of late-season emissions, sensitivity to soil environmental conditions, and importance of dry tundra are not currently simulated in most global climate models. Because Arctic warming disproportionally impacts the cold season, our results suggest that higher cold-season CH4 emissions will result from observed and predicted increases in snow thickness, active layer depth, and soil temperature, representing important positive feedbacks on climate warming. PMID:26699476

Cold season emissions dominate the Arctic tundra methane budget

DOE PAGES

Zona, Donatella; Gioli, Beniamino; Commane, Róisín; ...

2015-12-22

Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are major global sources of methane (CH 4); hence, it is important to understand the seasonal and climatic controls on CH 4 emissions from these systems. Here, we report year-round CH 4 emissions from Alaskan Arctic tundra eddy flux sites and regional fluxes derived from aircraft data. We find that emissions during the cold season (September to May) account for ≥ 50% of the annual CH 4 flux, with the highest emissions from noninundated upland tundra. A major fraction of cold season emissions occur during the “zero curtain” period, when subsurface soil temperatures are poised near 0more » °C. The zero curtain may persist longer than the growing season, and CH 4 emissions are enhanced when the duration is extended by a deep thawed layer as can occur with thick snow cover. Regional scale fluxes of CH 4 derived from aircraft data demonstrate the large spatial extent of late season CH 4 emissions. Scaled to the circumpolar Arctic, cold season fluxes from tundra total 12 ± 5 (95% confidence interval) Tg CH 4 y –1, ~25% of global emissions from extratropical wetlands, or ~6% of total global wetland methane emissions. Here, the dominance of late-season emissions, sensitivity to soil environmental conditions, and importance of dry tundra are not currently simulated in most global climate models. Because Arctic warming disproportionally impacts the cold season, our results suggest that higher cold-season CH 4 emissions will result from observed and predicted increases in snow thickness, active layer depth, and soil temperature, representing important positive feedbacks on climate warming.« less

Cold-related mortality vs heat-related mortality in a changing climate: A case study in Vilnius (Lithuania).

PubMed

Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Diaz, Julio; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lauwaet, Dirk; De Ridder, Koen; Linares, Cristina; Carmona, Rocio; Ortiz, Cristina; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Adamonyte, Dovile

2018-06-21

Direct health effects of extreme temperatures are a significant environmental health problem in Lithuania, and could worsen further under climate change. This paper attempts to describe the change in environmental temperature conditions that the urban population of Vilnius could experience under climate change, and the effects such change could have on excess heat-related and cold-related mortality in two future periods within the 21st century. We modelled the urban climate of Vilnius for the summer and winter seasons during a sample period (2009-2015) and projected summertime and wintertime daily temperatures for two prospective periods, one in the near (2030-2045) and one in the far future (2085-2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the historical relationship between temperature and mortality for the period 2009-2015, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under a changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatisation and acclimatisation to heat and cold based on a constant-percentile threshold temperature. During the sample period 2009-2015 in summertime we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 30 °C (the 96th percentile of the series), with an average of around 7 deaths per year. Under a no acclimatisation scenario, annual average heat-related mortality would rise to 24 deaths/year (95% CI: 8.4-38.4) in the near future and to 46 deaths/year (95% CI: 16.4-74.4) in the far future. Under a heat acclimatisation scenario, mortality would not increase significantly in the near or in the far future. Regarding wintertime cold-related mortality in the sample period 2009-2015, we observed increased mortality on days on which the minimum daily temperature fell below - 12 °C (the 7th percentile of the series), with an average of around 10 deaths a year. Keeping the threshold temperature constant, annual average cold-related mortality would decrease markedly in the near future, to 5 deaths/year (95% CI: 0.8-7.9) and even more in the far future, down to 0.44 deaths/year (95% C: 0.1-0.8). Assuming a "middle ground" between the acclimatisation and non-acclimatisation scenarios, the decrease in cold-related mortality will not compensate the increase in heat-related mortality. Thermal extremes, both heat and cold, constitute a serious public health threat in Vilnius, and in a changing climate the decrease in mortality attributable to cold will not compensate for the increase in mortality attributable to heat. Study results reinforce the notion that public health prevention against thermal extremes should be designed as a dynamic, adaptive process from the inception. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chilled in Translation: Adapting to Bacterial Climate Change.

PubMed

Gottesman, Susan

2018-04-19

Cold-shocked bacteria transiently shut down protein translation, but the mechanisms whereby they adaptively restore translation were incompletely understood. Zhang et al. (2018) demonstrate a global increase in mRNA structure after cold shock and that, as structured RNA decreases, translation returns, dependent upon ribonuclease RNase R and cold shock protein CspA and its homologs. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Interpopulational variation in the cold tolerance of a broadly distributed marine copepod

PubMed Central

Wallace, Gemma T.; Kim, Tiffany L.; Neufeld, Christopher J.

2014-01-01

Latitudinal trends in cold tolerance have been observed in many terrestrial ectotherms, but few studies have investigated interpopulational variation in the cold physiology of marine invertebrates. Here, the intertidal copepod Tigriopus californicus was used as a model system to study how local adaptation influences the cold tolerance of a broadly distributed marine crustacean. Among five populations spanning 18° in latitude, the following three metrics were used to compare cold tolerance: the temperature of chill-coma onset, the chill-coma recovery time and post-freezing recovery. In comparison to copepods from warmer southern latitudes, animals from northern populations exhibited lower chill-coma onset temperatures, shorter chill-coma recovery times and faster post-freezing recovery rates. Importantly, all three metrics showed a consistent latitudinal trend, suggesting that any single metric could be used equivalently in future studies investigating latitudinal variation in cold tolerance. Our results agree with previous studies showing that populations within a single species can display strong local adaptation to spatially varying climatic conditions. Thus, accounting for local adaptation in bioclimate models will be useful for understanding how broadly distributed species like T. californicus will respond to anthropogenic climate change. PMID:27293662

Interpopulational variation in the cold tolerance of a broadly distributed marine copepod.

PubMed

Wallace, Gemma T; Kim, Tiffany L; Neufeld, Christopher J

2014-01-01

Latitudinal trends in cold tolerance have been observed in many terrestrial ectotherms, but few studies have investigated interpopulational variation in the cold physiology of marine invertebrates. Here, the intertidal copepod Tigriopus californicus was used as a model system to study how local adaptation influences the cold tolerance of a broadly distributed marine crustacean. Among five populations spanning 18° in latitude, the following three metrics were used to compare cold tolerance: the temperature of chill-coma onset, the chill-coma recovery time and post-freezing recovery. In comparison to copepods from warmer southern latitudes, animals from northern populations exhibited lower chill-coma onset temperatures, shorter chill-coma recovery times and faster post-freezing recovery rates. Importantly, all three metrics showed a consistent latitudinal trend, suggesting that any single metric could be used equivalently in future studies investigating latitudinal variation in cold tolerance. Our results agree with previous studies showing that populations within a single species can display strong local adaptation to spatially varying climatic conditions. Thus, accounting for local adaptation in bioclimate models will be useful for understanding how broadly distributed species like T. californicus will respond to anthropogenic climate change.

An atypical case of successful resuscitation of an accidental profound hypothermia patient, occurring in a temperate climate.

PubMed

Coleman, E; Doddakula, K; Meeke, R; Marshall, C; Jahangir, S; Hinchion, J

2010-03-01

Cases of accidental profound hypothermia occur most frequently in cold, northern climates. We describe an atypical case, occurring in a temperate climate, where a hypothermic cardiac-arrested patient was successfully resuscitated using extracorporeal circulation (ECC).

Cold Temperatures Increase Cold Hardiness in the Next Generation Ophraella communa Beetles

PubMed Central

Zhou, Zhong-Shi; Rasmann, Sergio; Li, Min; Guo, Jian-Ying; Chen, Hong-Song; Wan, Fang-Hao

2013-01-01

The leaf beetle, Ophraella communa, has been introduced to control the spread of the common ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia, in China. We hypothesized that the beetle, to be able to track host-range expansion into colder climates, can phenotypically adapt to cold temperatures across generations. Therefore, we questioned whether parental experience of colder temperatures increases cold tolerance of the progeny. Specifically, we studied the demography, including development, fecundity, and survival, as well as physiological traits, including supercooling point (SCP), water content, and glycerol content of O. communa progeny whose parents were maintained at different temperature regimes. Overall, the entire immature stage decreased survival of about 0.2%–4.2% when parents experienced cold temperatures compared to control individuals obtained from parents raised at room temperature. However, intrinsic capacity for increase (r), net reproductive rate (R 0) and finite rate of increase (λ) of progeny O. communa were maximum when parents experienced cold temperatures. Glycerol contents of both female and male in progeny was significantly higher when maternal and paternal adults were cold acclimated as compared to other treatments. This resulted in the supercooling point of the progeny adults being significantly lower compared to beetles emerging from parents that experienced room temperatures. These results suggest that cold hardiness of O. communa can be promoted by cold acclimation in previous generation, and it might counter-balance reduced survival in the next generation, especially when insects are tracking their host-plants into colder climates. PMID:24098666

Effect assessment of Future Climate Change on Water Resource and Snow Quality in cold snowy regions in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taniguchi, Y.; Nakatsugawa, M.; Kudo, K.

2017-12-01

It is predicted that the effects of global warming on everyday life will be clearly seen in cold, snowy regions such as Hokkaido. In relation to climate change, there is the concern that the warmer climate will affect not only water resources, but also local economies, in snowy areas, when air temperature increases and snowfall decreases become more marked in the future. Communities whose economies are greatly dependent on snow as a tourism resource, such as for winter sports and snow events, will lose large numbers of visitors because of the shortened winter season. This study was done as a basic study to provide basic ideas for planning adaptation strategies against climate change based on the local characteristics of a cold, snowy region. By taking dam catchment basins in Hokkaido as the subject areas and by using the climate change prediction data that correspond to IPCCAR5, the local-level influence of future climate change on snowfall and snow quality in relation to water resources and winter sports was quantitatively assessed. The water budget was examined for a dam catchment basin in Hokkaido under the present climate (September 1984 to August 2004) and under the future climate (September 2080 to August 2100) by using rainfall, snowfall and evapotranspiration estimated by the LoHAS heat and water balance analysis model.The examination found that, under the future climate, the net annual precipitation will decrease by up to 200 mm because of decreases in precipitation and in runoff height that will result from increased evapotranspiration. The predicted decrease in annual hydro potential of snowfall was considered to greatly affect the dam reservoir operation during the snowmelt season. The snow quality analysis by SNOWPACK revealed that the future snow would become granular earlier than it does at present. Most skiers' snow preferences, from best to worst, are light dry snow (i.e., fresh snow), lightly compacted snow, compacted snow and, finally, granular snow. If the late-season snow on the slope becomes granular earlier than it has in previous years, then the ski resort's snow conditions will deteriorate. Businesses that receive economic benefits from snow have developed in cold, snowy areas. This study demonstrates that the economic benefits of snow are expected to be greatly reduced by future climate change.

Metabolic cold adaptation in fishes occurs at the level of whole animal, mitochondria and enzyme

PubMed Central

White, Craig R.; Alton, Lesley A.; Frappell, Peter B.

2012-01-01

Metabolic cold adaptation (MCA), the hypothesis that species from cold climates have relatively higher metabolic rates than those from warm climates, was first proposed nearly 100 years ago and remains one of the most controversial hypotheses in physiological ecology. In the present study, we test the MCA hypothesis in fishes at the level of whole animal, mitochondria and enzyme. In support of the MCA hypothesis, we find that when normalized to a common temperature, species with ranges that extend to high latitude (cooler climates) have high aerobic enzyme (citrate synthase) activity, high rates of mitochondrial respiration and high standard metabolic rates. Metabolic compensation for the global temperature gradient is not complete however, so when measured at their habitat temperature species from high latitude have lower absolute rates of metabolism than species from low latitudes. Evolutionary adaptation and thermal plasticity are therefore insufficient to completely overcome the acute thermodynamic effects of temperature, at least in fishes. PMID:22158960

Inoculation with a psychrotrophic-thermophilic complex microbial agent accelerates onset and promotes maturity of dairy manure-rice straw composting under cold climate conditions.

PubMed

Gou, Changlong; Wang, Yuqiong; Zhang, Xiqing; Lou, Yujie; Gao, Yunhang

2017-11-01

The objective was to determine the effects of psychrotrophic-thermophilic complex microbial agent (PTCMA) comprised of a psychrotrophic bacterium consortium (PBC) and a thermophilic cellulolytic fungi consortium (TCFC), on composting in a cold climate. Mixtures of dairy manure and rice straw were inoculated with PTCMA, PBC, TCFC and sterile water (control) and composted at an initial ambient temperatures of -2 to 5°C. In compost piles inoculated with PBC or PTCMA, temperatures reached the thermophilic phase (>55°C) faster (8-11d) than piles inoculated with TCFC or control. Furthermore, compost inoculated with TCFC or PTCMA had greater decreases in total organic carbon and carbon-to-nitrogen ratios, as well as significant increases in total nitrogen, degradation of cellulose and lignin and germination index than PBC inoculation or Control compost. Consequently, inoculation with both (i.e. PTCMA) accelerated the onset and promoted maturity of composting under cold-climate conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metabolic cold adaptation in fishes occurs at the level of whole animal, mitochondria and enzyme.

PubMed

White, Craig R; Alton, Lesley A; Frappell, Peter B

2012-05-07

Metabolic cold adaptation (MCA), the hypothesis that species from cold climates have relatively higher metabolic rates than those from warm climates, was first proposed nearly 100 years ago and remains one of the most controversial hypotheses in physiological ecology. In the present study, we test the MCA hypothesis in fishes at the level of whole animal, mitochondria and enzyme. In support of the MCA hypothesis, we find that when normalized to a common temperature, species with ranges that extend to high latitude (cooler climates) have high aerobic enzyme (citrate synthase) activity, high rates of mitochondrial respiration and high standard metabolic rates. Metabolic compensation for the global temperature gradient is not complete however, so when measured at their habitat temperature species from high latitude have lower absolute rates of metabolism than species from low latitudes. Evolutionary adaptation and thermal plasticity are therefore insufficient to completely overcome the acute thermodynamic effects of temperature, at least in fishes.

Should anthropogenic warming lead to more frequent cold air outbreaks over the northeastern U.S.?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholas, R.

2014-12-01

For the northeastern United States, Winter 2013-14 was the coldest winter since the late 1970s and perhaps the coldest on record relative to prevailing climatic conditions. Frequent snowstorms and cold air outbreaks led to considerable press coverage and heated scholarly debate over the possible role of anthropogenic climate change in modulating wintertime variability in the northern hemisphere polar jet. While mechanisms have been proposed, to date, the observational record offers no definitive evidence for such a relationship, nor does it conclusively exclude one. To further explore this question, we employ a large, initial conditions ensemble of the Community Earth System Model forced with historical and RCP8.5 emissions. The ensemble effectively samples internal variability in the climate system and is used to assess the potential for forced changes in polar jet variability and the frequency of cold air outbreaks over the northeastern U.S. with projected increases in global mean temperature during the 21st century.

Parallel Evolution of Cold Tolerance within Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Braun, Dylan T.; Lack, Justin B.

2017-01-01

Drosophila melanogaster originated in tropical Africa before expanding into strikingly different temperate climates in Eurasia and beyond. Here, we find elevated cold tolerance in three distinct geographic regions: beyond the well-studied non-African case, we show that populations from the highlands of Ethiopia and South Africa have significantly increased cold tolerance as well. We observe greater cold tolerance in outbred versus inbred flies, but only in populations with higher inversion frequencies. Each cold-adapted population shows lower inversion frequencies than a closely-related warm-adapted population, suggesting that inversion frequencies may decrease with altitude in addition to latitude. Using the FST-based “Population Branch Excess” statistic (PBE), we found only limited evidence for parallel genetic differentiation at the scale of ∼4 kb windows, specifically between Ethiopian and South African cold-adapted populations. And yet, when we looked for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with codirectional frequency change in two or three cold-adapted populations, strong genomic enrichments were observed from all comparisons. These findings could reflect an important role for selection on standing genetic variation leading to “soft sweeps”. One SNP showed sufficient codirectional frequency change in all cold-adapted populations to achieve experiment-wide significance: an intronic variant in the synaptic gene Prosap. Another codirectional outlier SNP, at senseless-2, had a strong association with our cold trait measurements, but in the opposite direction as predicted. More generally, proteins involved in neurotransmission were enriched as potential targets of parallel adaptation. The ability to study cold tolerance evolution in a parallel framework will enhance this classic study system for climate adaptation. PMID:27777283

Persistent Cold Air Outbreaks over North America Under Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Y.; Leung, L. R.; Lu, J.

2014-12-01

This study evaluates the change of cold air outbreaks (CAO) over North America using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations as well as regional high resolution climate simulations. In future, while robust decrease of CAO duration dominates in most of the North America, the decrease over northwestern U.S. was found to have much smaller magnitude than the surrounding regions. We found statistically significant increase of the sea level pressure over gulf of Alaska, leading to the advection of cold air to northwestern U.S.. By shifting the probability distribution of present temperature towards future warmer conditions, we identified the changes in large scale circulation contribute to about 50% of the enhanced sea level pressure. Using the high resolution regional climate model results, we found that increases of existing snowpack could potentially trigger the increase of CAO in the near future over the southwestern U.S. and Rocky Mountain through surface albedo effects. By the end of this century, the top 5 most extreme historical CAO events may still occur and wind chill warning will continue to have societal impacts over North America in particular over northwestern United States.

Ear infection - acute

MedlinePlus

... more than 6 children) Changes in altitude or climate Cold climate Exposure to smoke Family history of ear infections ... Clinical Assistant Professor of Pediatrics, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, WA. Internal review and update ...

Temporal dynamics of direct N2O fluxes from agro-ecosystems in cold climates: importance of year-round measurements in multiple cropping systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner-Riddle, C.; Tenuta, M.

2014-12-01

Soil N2O fluxes (direct emissions) are highly variable in time and space due to soil, weather and management drivers. In cold climates, freeze/thaw cycles and short growing seasons can enhance soil N2O production contributing to the temporal variability of fluxes. Year-round measurements of N2O fluxes in multiple cropping systems are needed to decrease the uncertainty of annual emission estimates and to devise mitigation practices for emission reduction in cold climates. We have deployed a micrometeorological flux-gradient approach coupled to a tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy system at two long-term sites in Canada: Elora, Ontario (2000-2014) and Glenlea, Manitoba (2006-2014). Quasi-simultaneous half-hourly flux measurements on four 4-ha fields within a level and aerodynamically homogeneous landscape were obtained allowing for comparison of crop type and/or management practices within and between years. Annual crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat, and barley received typical inorganic fertilizer and/or manure applications, and best management practices such as timing of application and reduced tillage were studied. Perennial grass-alfalfa hayfields were compared to annual crops during selected time periods. Here we synthesize the long-term datasets from these two sites, and quantify the overall contribution of non-growing season (mainly freeze/thaw cycles) and growing season (mainly nitrogen application) to annual emission totals. Uncertainties of regional estimates for cold-climates will be assessed using these long-term datasets.

Effects of Temperature, Salinity and Fish in Structuring the Macroinvertebrate Community in Shallow Lakes: Implications for Effects of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Brucet, Sandra; Boix, Dani; Nathansen, Louise W.; Quintana, Xavier D.; Jensen, Elisabeth; Balayla, David; Meerhoff, Mariana; Jeppesen, Erik

2012-01-01

Climate warming may lead to changes in the trophic structure and diversity of shallow lakes as a combined effect of increased temperature and salinity and likely increased strength of trophic interactions. We investigated the potential effects of temperature, salinity and fish on the plant-associated macroinvertebrate community by introducing artificial plants in eight comparable shallow brackish lakes located in two climatic regions of contrasting temperature: cold-temperate and Mediterranean. In both regions, lakes covered a salinity gradient from freshwater to oligohaline waters. We undertook day and night-time sampling of macroinvertebrates associated with the artificial plants and fish and free-swimming macroinvertebrate predators within artificial plants and in pelagic areas. Our results showed marked differences in the trophic structure between cold and warm shallow lakes. Plant-associated macroinvertebrates and free-swimming macroinvertebrate predators were more abundant and the communities richer in species in the cold compared to the warm climate, most probably as a result of differences in fish predation pressure. Submerged plants in warm brackish lakes did not seem to counteract the effect of fish predation on macroinvertebrates to the same extent as in temperate freshwater lakes, since small fish were abundant and tended to aggregate within the macrophytes. The richness and abundance of most plant-associated macroinvertebrate taxa decreased with salinity. Despite the lower densities of plant-associated macroinvertebrates in the Mediterranean lakes, periphyton biomass was lower than in cold temperate systems, a fact that was mainly attributed to grazing and disturbance by fish. Our results suggest that, if the current process of warming entails higher chances of shallow lakes becoming warmer and more saline, climatic change may result in a decrease in macroinvertebrate species richness and abundance in shallow lakes. PMID:22393354

The Effects of Extreme Temperature Events on Human Mortality in Europe: Winners and Losers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merte, S.

2016-12-01

Climate change is a sizable threat to public health. Besides the shift in mean temperatures, there is also a change in the frequency of extreme temperature events. While cold spells become less frequent, heat waves become more common. As either of these can cause human death, the net-effect of climate change in terms of human excess mortality is currently unclear and and will vary depending on local conditions. The ability to estimate this net-effect is key when it comes to designing effective climate change adaptation policies as some areas will be affected earlier and/or stronger than others. This work provides the first large-scale estimate of this net-effect for Europe. Utilizing a novel methodology based on singular systems analysis, climate extreme-driven excess mortality is estimated using national-level health data. The first notable finding of this work is the confirmation that extreme temperature events already pose a major environmental risk: tens of thousands of people die every year in the examined European countries as a result of heat waves and cold spells. The second important result is that it demonstrates the need for climate change mitigation: Assuming moderate climate change, some countries in Northern and Western Europe will benefit from the shift in extreme temperature events — they will experience a net-reduction in excess mortality as a result of a drastically reduced frequency of cold spells. In contrast, assuming severe climate change, there will be a significant increase in excess mortality, in particular across countries in Southern Europe. This means that -if climate adaptation fails- there will be no winners, just losers.

21 Layer troposphere-stratosphere climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, D.; Suozzo, R.; Lacis, A.; Russell, G.; Hansen, J.

1984-01-01

The global climate model is extended through the stratosphere by increasing the vertical resolution and raising the rigid model top to the 0.01 mb (75 km) level. The inclusion of a realistic stratosphere is necessary for the investigation of the climate effects of stratospheric perturbations, such as changes of ozone, aerosols or solar ultraviolet irradiance, as well as for studying the effect on the stratosphere of tropospheric climate changes. The observed temperature and wind patterns throughout the troposphere and stratosphere are simulated. In addition to the excess planetary wave amplitude in the upper stratosphere, other model deficiences include the Northern Hemisphere lower stratospheric temperatures being 5 to 10 C too cold in winter at high latitudes and the temperature at 50 to 60 km altitude near the equator are too cold. Methods of correcting these deficiencies are discussed.

An Analysis of Historical Records of Solar Variability, Volcanic Eruptions, and Climate Change in the Last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, K. D.

2003-12-01

Studying past climate changes can help us better understand present natural variations and predict future trends. However, various reconstructions of the climate of the last 1000 years have given only broad similarities [Briffa, JGR 106, 2929, 2001]. The variances are partly due to uncertainties in the past radiative and aerosol forcing, and gaps in regional coverage. Another outstanding question is whether we are in a time similar to the Medieval Warm Period. From the frequencies of sunspot and aurora sightings, abundance of carbon-14 in the rings of long-lived trees, and beryllium-10 in the annual layers of polar ice cores, we have reconstructed the recent history of a variable Sun. In the past 1800 years the Sun has gone through nine cycles of changes in brightness. While these long-term changes account for less than 1% of the total irradiance, there is clear evidence that they affect the climate [Pang and Yau, Eos, 83, No. 43, 481, 2002]. We have analyzed Chinese historical weather records to fill the data void in this region. Reports of unseasonable cold are classified by the degree of severity: (1) Late (April-June) or early (July-Sept) killing frosts; (2) Bitter cold/heavy snowfall; and (3) heavy sustained snowfall, bitter cold with frozen wells, lakes, rivers, and icebound seas. The latter cases were often widespread and multi-year. All categories occurred most frequently during the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, with the coldest episodes in 1652-54, 1656, 1664, 1670-72, 1676-77, 1683, 1688-91, 1716 and 1718-19. They thus coincide with Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), when very few sunspots were seen-about one in ten years from China or Europe-indicative of a weakened Sun. There was only one Category 3 episode between the Maunder and Dalton Minima-in 1761, and two in the Dalton Minimum (1795-1825)-in 1796 and 1814-7. Analysis of proxy data has shown that the 1810's were among the coldest years in Europe [Briffa and Jones, in ``The Year Without a Summer,'' C.R. Harrignton, ed., 1992]. Large eruptions, of an unknown volcano in 1809 [Dai, JGR 96, 17361, 1991], at Mayon in 1814, and at Tambora in 1815, with the reduced solar luminosity seem to have been responsible. The Sun has slowly brightened since the Dalton Minimum. However, the climate of China remained cold through the 19th century, consistent with world climate trend [Bradley and Jones, Holocene 3, 367, 1993], possibly due to increased volcanic aerosol loading of the atmosphere [Sato, JGR 98, 22987, 1993]. In the 200 years prior to the Maunder Minimum, there was at least one other major planetwide volcanically forced cold episode-in 1453-54. The climate of China appears to have been warm during the Late 14th-Century Solar Maximum (1350-1410). We have found only one report of early killing frost-in May, 1993. It then turned cold during the Sporer Minimum (140-1590) [Pang and Yau, op. cit.]. Category 3 cold episodes occurred in 1453-54, 1513, 1569, and 1577-78. Lesser ones were also more common. The coldest was in 1453-54, due to a Tamboran class eruption that broke a big island in New Hebrides Arc in two, separated by a 12X6X1 km submarine caldera Kuwae. The volcanic chill was felt worldwide, with extensive reporting in China [Pang, Eos 74, No. 43, 196, 1993]. Reduced solar luminosity may have also contributed to the cold climate of that decade, as was the case in the 1810's. We conclude that the climate of China in the past 650 years generally follows world trend. The major forcing seems to have been changing solar luminosity, perturbed by frequent volcanic eruptions.

[Temporal and spatial variations of extreme climatic events in Songnen Grassland, Northeast China during 1960-2014].

PubMed

Ma, Qi Yun; Zhang, Ji Quan; Lai, Quan; Zhang, Feng; Dong, Zhen Hua; A, Lu Si

2017-06-18

Fourteen extreme climatic indices related with main regional meteorological disasters and vegetation growth were calculated based on daily data from 13 meteorological stations during 1960-2014 in Songnen Grassland, Northeast China. Then, the variation trend and the spatial and temporal patterns of climatic extreme events were analyzed by using regression analysis, break trend analy-sis, Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator and moving t-test method. The results indicated that summer days (SU25), warm days (TX90P), warm nights (TN90P) and warm spell duration (WSDI) representing extremely high temperatures showed significant increasing trends (P<0.05). Meanwhile, frost days (FD0), cold days (TX10P), cold nights (TN10P) and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) representing extremely low temperatures showed obviously decreasing trends. The magnitudes of changes in cold indices (FD0, TX10P, TN10P and CSDI) were clearly greater than those of warm indices (SU25, TX90P, TN90P and WSDI), and that changes in night indices were larger than those of day indices. Regional climate warming trend was obvious from 1970 to 2009, and the most occurrences of the abrupt changes in these indices were identified in this period. The extreme precipitation indices did not show obvious trend, in general, SDII and CDD experienced a slightly decreasing trend while RX5D, R95P, PRCPTOT and CWD witnessed a mildly increasing trend. It may be concluded that regional climate changed towards warming and slightly wetting in Songnen Grassland. The most sensitive region for extreme temperature was distributed in the south and north region. Additionally, the extreme temperature indices showed clearly spatial difference between the south and the north. As for the spatial variations of extreme precipitation indices, the climate could be characterized by becoming wetter in northern region, and getting drier in southern region, especially in southwestern region with a high drought risk.

Field Investigation of an Air-Source Cold Climate Heat Pump

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, Bo; Abdelaziz, Omar; Rice, C Keith

In the U.S., there are approximately 2.6 million dwellings that use electricity for heating in cold and very cold regions with an annual energy consumption of 0.16 quads (0.17 EJ). A high performance cold climate heat pump (CCHP) would result in significant savings over current technologies (greater than 60% compared to electric resistance heating). We developed an air-source cold climate heat pump, which uses tandem compressors, with a single compressor rated for the building design cooling load, and running two compressors to provide, at -13 F (-25 C), 75% of rated heating capacity. The tandem compressors were optimized for heatingmore » operation and are able to tolerate discharge temperatures up to 280 F (138 C). A field investigation was conducted in the winter of 2015, in an occupied home in Ohio, USA. During the heating season, the seasonal COP was measured at 3.16, and the heat pump was able to operate down to -13 F (-25 C) and eliminate resistance heat use. The heat pump maintained an acceptable comfort level throughout the heating season. In comparison to a previous single-speed heat pump in the home, the CCHP demonstrated more than 40% energy savings in the peak heating load month. This paper illustrates the measured field performance, including compressor run time, frost/defrosting operations, distributions of building heating load and capacity delivery, comfort level, field measured COPs, etc.« less

Geographic trend of bud hardiness response in Vitis riparia

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A major goal of grapevine breeding efforts for production outside of Mediterranean climates is the production of varieties that have cold tolerance phenotypes. Typically, grapevine breeders use midwinter bud hardiness measures as the descriptive phenotype for cold tolerance. Historical practices of...

Project COLD.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kazanjian, Wendy C.

1982-01-01

Describes Project COLD (Climate, Ocean, Land, Discovery) a scientific study of the Polar Regions, a collection of 35 modules used within the framework of existing subjects: oceanography, biology, geology, meterology, geography, social science. Includes a partial list of topics and one activity (geodesic dome) from a module. (Author/SK)

Ongoing climatic extreme dynamics in Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordov, E. P.; Shulgina, T. M.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Titov, A. G.

2013-12-01

Ongoing global climate changes accompanied by the restructuring of global processes in the atmosphere and biosphere are strongly pronounced in the Northern Eurasia regions, especially in Siberia. Recent investigations indicate not only large changes in averaged climatic characteristics (Kabanov and Lykosov, 2006, IPCC, 2007; Groisman and Gutman, 2012), but more frequent occurrence and stronger impacts of climatic extremes are reported as well (Bulygina et al., 2007; IPCC, 2012: Climate Extremes, 2012; Oldenborh et al., 2013). This paper provides the results of daily temperature and precipitation extreme dynamics in Siberia for the last three decades (1979 - 2012). Their seasonal dynamics is assessed using 10th and 90th percentile-based threshold indices that characterize frequency, intensity and duration of climatic extremes. To obtain the geographical pattern of these variations with high spatial resolution, the sub-daily temperature data from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis and daily precipitation amounts from APHRODITE JMA dataset were used. All extreme indices and linear trend coefficients have been calculated using web-GIS information-computational platform Climate (http://climate.scert.ru/) developed to support collaborative multidisciplinary investigations of regional climatic changes and their impacts (Gordov et al., 2012). Obtained results show that seasonal dynamics of daily temperature extremes is asymmetric for tails of cold and warm temperature extreme distributions. Namely, the intensity of warming during cold nights is higher than during warm nights, especially at high latitudes of Siberia. The similar dynamics is observed for cold and warm day-time temperatures. Slight summer cooling was observed in the central part of Siberia. It is associated with decrease in warm temperature extremes. In the southern Siberia in winter, we also observe some cooling mostly due to strengthening of the cold temperature extremes. Changes in daily precipitation extremes are spatially inhomogeneous. The largest increase in frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is observed in the north of East Siberia. Negative trends related to precipitation amount decrease are found in the central West Siberia and in the south of East Siberia. The authors acknowledge partial financial support for this research from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research projects (11-05-01190 and 13-05-12034), SB RAS Integration project 131 and project VIII.80.2.1., the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation contract 8345 and grant of the President of Russian Federation (decree 181).

The impact of acclimatization on thermophysiological strain for contrasting regional climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Freitas, C. R.; Grigorieva, E. A.

2014-12-01

During acclimatization to heat and cold, the body experiences additional thermally induced physiological strain. The first signs show up in the respiratory organs because respiration is a continuous heat exchange process in which the body is in closest contact with the ambient air. There are no behavioral or other adjustments to prevent the ambient air from entering into the body's core area through the respiratory tract. The Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI) describes the acclimatization thermal loading (ATL) on respiratory organs until full adaptation is achieved. The aim here is to further assess the ATSI scheme using a range of actual but contrasting bioclimatic conditions. To simulate ATL, scenarios of the consequences of acclimatization due to movement to or from five contrasting climates are used. The results show that adjusting to cold comes with greater physiological strain than adjusting to heat, the biggest impact occurring for a change of location from hot-humid to cold-dry climatic conditions. The approach can be used to assess risks due to increases in short-term thermal variability in weather conditions such as encountered during heat waves and cold snaps. The information could also be useful for assessing the need for public health services and measures that might be used to help mitigate impacts.

The impact of acclimatization on thermophysiological strain for contrasting regional climates.

PubMed

de Freitas, C R; Grigorieva, E A

2014-12-01

During acclimatization to heat and cold, the body experiences additional thermally induced physiological strain. The first signs show up in the respiratory organs because respiration is a continuous heat exchange process in which the body is in closest contact with the ambient air. There are no behavioral or other adjustments to prevent the ambient air from entering into the body's core area through the respiratory tract. The Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI) describes the acclimatization thermal loading (ATL) on respiratory organs until full adaptation is achieved. The aim here is to further assess the ATSI scheme using a range of actual but contrasting bioclimatic conditions. To simulate ATL, scenarios of the consequences of acclimatization due to movement to or from five contrasting climates are used. The results show that adjusting to cold comes with greater physiological strain than adjusting to heat, the biggest impact occurring for a change of location from hot-humid to cold-dry climatic conditions. The approach can be used to assess risks due to increases in short-term thermal variability in weather conditions such as encountered during heat waves and cold snaps. The information could also be useful for assessing the need for public health services and measures that might be used to help mitigate impacts.

3D climate-carbon modelling of the early Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charnay, B.; Le Hir, G.; Fluteau, F.; Forget, F.; Catling, D.

2017-09-01

We revisit the climate and carbon cycle of the early Earth at 3.8 Ga using a 3D climate-carbon model. Our resultsfavor cold or temperate climates with global mean temperatures between around 8°C (281 K) and 30°C (303 K) and with 0.1-0.36 bar of CO2 for the late Hadean and early Archean.

The role of climate change in interpreting historical variability

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar; Wallace B. Woolfenden

1999-01-01

Significant climate anomalies have characterized the last 1000 yr in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Two warm, dry periods of 150- and 200-yr duration occurred during AD 900-1350, which were followed by anomalously cold climates, known as the Little Ice Age, that lasted from AD 1400 to 1900. Climate in the last century has been significantly warmer. Regional biotic...

Effects of differential habitat warming on complex communities.

PubMed

Tunney, Tyler D; McCann, Kevin S; Lester, Nigel P; Shuter, Brian J

2014-06-03

Food webs unfold across a mosaic of micro and macro habitats, with each habitat coupled by mobile consumers that behave in response to local environmental conditions. Despite this fundamental characteristic of nature, research on how climate change will affect whole ecosystems has overlooked (i) that climate warming will generally affect habitats differently and (ii) that mobile consumers may respond to this differential change in a manner that may fundamentally alter the energy pathways that sustain ecosystems. This reasoning suggests a powerful, but largely unexplored, avenue for studying the impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. Here, we use lake ecosystems to show that predictable behavioral adjustments to local temperature differentials govern a fundamental structural shift across 54 food webs. Data show that the trophic pathways from basal resources to a cold-adapted predator shift toward greater reliance on a cold-water refuge habitat, and food chain length increases, as air temperatures rise. Notably, cold-adapted predator behavior may substantially drive this decoupling effect across the climatic range in our study independent of warmer-adapted species responses (for example, changes in near-shore species abundance and predator absence). Such modifications reflect a flexible food web architecture that requires more attention from climate change research. The trophic pathway restructuring documented here is expected to alter biomass accumulation, through the regulation of energy fluxes to predators, and thus potentially threatens ecosystem sustainability in times of rapid environmental change.

Standard seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuller, Stanton E.

1990-09-01

A renewed interest in climatic definitions of the seasons has surfaced in recent years. However, people usually associate biological phenomena and climate with the seasons. Standard seasons, defined as the periods of the year when the climate is within specified bounds, can be delimited in terms of biological phenomena if climatic thresholds are known for the groups of interest. By focusing attention on the time variation they illustrate climatic variation from a different perspective. An example of the type of information provided by standard seasons on the regional scale is given using human thermal standard seasons in the Pacific Basin. The latitudinal control of climate is indicated by the length of the hot and cold seasons. The moderation of maritime climates is seen in the shortness and slower rate of advance and retreat of the hot and cold seasons, and the extended length of the neutral (or spring) season. Standard seasons have widespread application in indicating the times of the year favorable or unfavorable for particular populations or activities. Bioclimatologists can contribute to season definition by expanding the range of information on climate-organism interaction on which seasonal thresholds are based and may find standard seasons useful in presenting the results of many types of investigations.

Growth gains from selective breeding in a spruce hybrid zone do not compromise local adaptation to climate.

PubMed

MacLachlan, Ian R; Yeaman, Sam; Aitken, Sally N

2018-02-01

Hybrid zones contain extensive standing genetic variation that facilitates rapid responses to selection. The Picea glauca  ×  Picea engelmannii hybrid zone in western Canada is the focus of tree breeding programs that annually produce ~90 million reforestation seedlings. Understanding the direct and indirect effects of selective breeding on adaptive variation is necessary to implement assisted gene flow (AGF) polices in Alberta and British Columbia that match these seedlings with future climates. We decomposed relationships among hybrid ancestry, adaptive traits, and climate to understand the implications of selective breeding for climate adaptations and AGF strategies. The effects of selection on associations among hybrid index estimated from ~6,500 SNPs, adaptive traits, and provenance climates were assessed for ~2,400 common garden seedlings. Hybrid index differences between natural and selected seedlings within breeding zones were small in Alberta (average +2%), but larger and more variable in BC (average -7%, range -24% to +1%), slightly favoring P. glauca ancestry. The average height growth gain of selected seedlings over natural seedlings within breeding zones was 36% (range 12%-86%). Clines in growth with temperature-related variables were strong, but differed little between selected and natural populations. Seedling hybrid index and growth trait associations with evapotranspiration-related climate variables were stronger in selected than in natural seedlings, indicating possible preadaptation to drier future climates. Associations among cold hardiness, hybrid ancestry, and cold-related climate variables dominated signals of local adaptation and were preserved in breeding populations. Strong hybrid ancestry-phenotype-climate associations suggest that AGF will be necessary to match interior spruce breeding populations with shifting future climates. The absence of antagonistic selection responses among traits and maintenance of cold adaptation in selected seedlings suggests breeding populations can be safely redeployed using AGF prescriptions similar to those of natural populations.

The impact of temperature on mortality in a subtropical city: effects of cold, heat, and heat waves in São Paulo, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, Ji-Young; Gouveia, Nelson; Bravo, Mercedes A.; de Freitas, Clarice Umbelino; Bell, Michelle L.

2016-01-01

Understanding how weather impacts health is critical, especially under a changing climate; however, relatively few studies have investigated subtropical regions. We examined how mortality in São Paulo, Brazil, is affected by cold, heat, and heat waves over 14.5 years (1996-2010). We used over-dispersed generalized linear modeling to estimate heat- and cold-related mortality, and Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate overall effects and modification by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season). Stratified analyses were performed by cause of death and individual characteristics (sex, age, education, marital status, and place of death). Cold effects on mortality appeared higher than heat effects in this subtropical city with moderate climatic conditions. Heat was associated with respiratory mortality and cold with cardiovascular mortality. Risk of total mortality was 6.1 % (95 % confidence interval 4.7, 7.6 %) higher at the 99th percentile of temperature than the 90th percentile (heat effect) and 8.6 % (6.2, 11.1 %) higher at the 1st compared to the 10th percentile (cold effect). Risks were higher for females and those with no education for heat effect, and males for cold effect. Older persons, widows, and non-hospital deaths had higher mortality risks for heat and cold. Mortality during heat waves was higher than on non-heat wave days for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Our findings indicate that mortality in São Paulo is associated with both cold and heat and that some subpopulations are more vulnerable.

An Overview of Signaling Regulons During Cold Stress Tolerance in Plants

PubMed Central

Pareek, Amit; Khurana, Ashima; Sharma, Arun K.; Kumar, Rahul

2017-01-01

Plants, being sessile organisms, constantly withstand environmental fluctuations, including low-temperature, also referred as cold stress. Whereas cold poses serious challenges at both physiological and developmental levels to plants growing in tropical or sub-tropical regions, plants from temperate climatic regions can withstand chilling or freezing temperatures. Several cold inducible genes have already been isolated and used in transgenic approach to generate cold tolerant plants. The conventional breeding methods and marker assisted selection have helped in developing plant with improved cold tolerance, however, the development of freezing tolerant plants through cold acclimation remains an unaccomplished task. Therefore, it is essential to have a clear understanding of how low temperature sensing strategies and corresponding signal transduction act during cold acclimation process. Herein, we synthesize the available information on the molecular mechanisms underlying cold sensing and signaling with an aim that the summarized literature will help develop efficient strategies to obtain cold tolerant plants. PMID:29204079

[Estimating and projecting the acute effect of cold spells on excess mortality under climate change in Guangzhou].

PubMed

Sun, Q H; Wang, W T; Wang, Y W; Li, T T

2018-04-06

Objective: To estimate future excess mortality attributable to cold spells in Guangzhou, China. Methods: We collected the mortality data and metrological data from 2009-2013 of Guangzhou to calculated the association between cold spell days and non-accidental mortality with GLM model. Then we projected future daily average temperatures (2020-2039 (2020s) , 2050-2069 (2050s) , 2080-2099 (2080s) ) with 5 GCMs models and 2 RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to identify cold spell days. The baseline period was the 1980s (1980-1999). Finally, calculated the yearly cold spells related excess death of 1980s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s with average daily death count of non-cold spell days, exposure-response relationship, and yearly number of cold spell days. Results: The average of daily non-accidental mortality in Guangzhou from 2009 to 2013 was 96, and the average of daily average was 22.0 ℃. Cold spell days were associated with 3.3% (95% CI: 0.4%-6.2%) increase in non-accidental mortality. In 1980s, yearly cold spells related deaths were 34 (95% CI: 4-64). In 2020s, the number will increase by 0-10; in 2050s, the number will increase by 1-9; and in 2080s, will increase by 1-9 under the RCP4.5 scenario. In 2020s, the number will increase by 0-9; in 2050s, the number will increase by 1-6; and in 2080s, will increase by 0-11 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Conclusion: The cold spells related non-accidental deaths in Guangzhou will increase in future under climate change.

Comparison of UTCI with Other Thermal Indices in the Assessment of Heat and Cold Effects on Cardiovascular Mortality in the Czech Republic

PubMed Central

Urban, Aleš; Kyselý, Jan

2014-01-01

We compare the recently developed Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) with other thermal indices in analysing heat- and cold-related effects on cardiovascular (CVD) mortality in two different (urban and rural) regions in the Czech Republic during the 16-year period from 1994–2009. Excess mortality is represented by the number of deaths above expected daily values, the latter being adjusted for long-term changes, annual and weekly cycles, and epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections. Air temperature, UTCI, Apparent Temperature (AT) and Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) are applied to identify days with heat and cold stress. We found similar heat effects on CVD mortality for air temperature and the examined thermal indices. Responses of CVD mortality to cold effects as characterised by different indices were much more varied. Particularly important is the finding that air temperature provides a weak cold effect in comparison with the thermal indices in both regions, so its application—still widespread in epidemiological studies—may underestimate the magnitude of cold-related mortality. These findings are important when possible climate change effects on heat- and cold-related mortality are estimated. AT and PET appear to be more universal predictors of heat- and cold- related mortality than UTCI when both urban and rural environments are of concern. UTCI tends to select windy rather than freezing days in winter, though these show little effect on mortality in the urban population. By contrast, significant cold-related mortality in the rural region if UTCI is used shows potential for UTCI to become a useful tool in cold exposure assessments. PMID:24413706

A new insight into cold stress in poultry production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Since growing animals are vulnerable to extreme temperature, climate changes become an important critical constraint to several species in the world. In poultry production, while heat stress has been a rising concern for producers and scientists, cold stress has also caused economic loss worldwide. ...

Evolution of CO2 and H2O on Mars: A cold Early History?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Niles, P. B.; Michalski, J.

2011-01-01

The martian climate has long been thought to have evolved substantially through history from a warm and wet period to the current cold and dry conditions on the martian surface. This view has been challenged based primarily on evidence that the early Sun had a substantially reduced luminosity and that a greenhouse atmosphere would be difficult to sustain on Mars for long periods of time. In addition, the evidence for a warm, wet period of martian history is far from conclusive with many of the salient features capable of being explained by an early cold climate. An important test of the warm, wet early Mars hypothesis is the abundance of carbonates in the crust [1]. Recent high precision isotopic measurements of the martian atmosphere and discoveries of carbonates on the martian surface provide new constraints on the evolution of the martian atmosphere. This work seeks to apply these constraints to test the feasibility of the cold early scenario

Heating up relations between cold fish: competition modifies responses to climate change.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C; Holt, Robert D; Gilman, Sarah E; Tewksbury, Joshua

2011-05-01

Most predictions about species responses to climate change ignore species interactions. Helland and colleagues (2011) test whether this assumption is valid by evaluating whether ice cover affects competition between brown trout [Salmo trutta (L.)] and Arctic charr [Salvelinus alpines (L.)]. They show that increasing ice cover correlates with lower trout biomass when Arctic charr co-occur, but not in charr's absence. In experiments, charr grew better in the cold, dark environments that typify ice-covered lakes. Decreasing ice cover with warmer winters could mean more trout and fewer charr. More generally, their results provide an excellent example, suggesting that species interactions can strongly modify responses to climate change. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Long Term Decline in Eastern US Winter Temperature Extremes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenary, L. L.; DelSole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.; Doty, B.

2016-12-01

States along the US eastern seaboard have experienced successively harsh winter conditions in recent years. This has prompted speculation that climate change is leading to more extreme winter conditions. In this study we quantify changes in the observed winter extremes over the period 1950-2015, by examining year-to-year differences in intensity, frequency and likelihood of daily cold temperature extremes in the north, mid, and south Atlantic states along the US east coast. Analyzing station data for these three regions, we find that while the north and mid-Atlantic regions experienced record-breaking cold temperatures in 2015, there is no long-term increase in the intensity of cold extremes anywhere along the eastern seaboard. Likewise, despite the record number of cold days in these two regions during 2014 and 2015, there is no systematic increase in the frequency of cold extremes. To determine whether the observed changes are natural or human-forced, we repeat our analysis using a suite of climate simulations, with and without external forcing. Generally, model simulations suggest that human-induced forcing does not significantly influence the range of daily winter temperature. Combining this result with the fact that the observed winter temperatures are becoming warmer and less variable, we conclude that the recent intensification of eastern US cold extremes is only temporary.

Thermal thresholds as predictors of seed dormancy release and germination timing: altitude-related risks from climate warming for the wild grapevine Vitis vinifera subsp. sylvestris.

PubMed

Orrù, Martino; Mattana, Efisio; Pritchard, Hugh W; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

2012-12-01

The importance of thermal thresholds for predicting seed dormancy release and germination timing under the present climate conditions and simulated climate change scenarios was investigated. In particular, Vitis vinifera subsp. sylvestris was investigated in four Sardinian populations over the full altitudinal range of the species (from approx. 100 to 800 m a.s.l). Dried and fresh seeds from each population were incubated in the light at a range of temperatures (10-25 and 25/10 °C), without any pre-treatment and after a warm (3 months at 25 °C) or a cold (3 months at 5 °C) stratification. A thermal time approach was then applied to the germination results for dried seeds and the seed responses were modelled according to the present climate conditions and two simulated scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): B1 (+1·8 °C) and A2 (+3·4 °C). Cold stratification released physiological dormancy, while very few seeds germinated without treatments or after warm stratification. Fresh, cold-stratified seeds germinated significantly better (>80 %) at temperatures ≥20 °C than at lower temperatures. A base temperature for germination (T(b)) of 9·0-11·3 °C and a thermal time requirement for 50 % of germination (θ(50)) ranging from 33·6 °Cd to 68·6 °Cd were identified for non-dormant cold-stratified seeds, depending on the populations. This complex combination of thermal requirements for dormancy release and germination allowed prediction of field emergence from March to May under the present climatic conditions for the investigated populations. The thermal thresholds for seed germination identified in this study (T(b) and θ(50)) explained the differences in seed germination detected among populations. Under the two simulated IPCC scenarios, an altitude-related risk from climate warming is identified, with lowland populations being more threatened due to a compromised seed dormancy release and a narrowed seed germination window.

Analysis of Solar Chimneys in Different Climate Zones - Case of Social Housing in Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godoy-Vaca, Luis; Almaguer, Manuel; Martínez-Gómez, Javier; Lobato, Andrea; Palme, Massimo

2017-10-01

The aim of this research is to simulate the performance of a solar chimney located in different macro-zones in Ecuador. The proposed solar chimney model was simulated using a python script in order to predict the temperature distribution and the mass flow over time. The results obtained were firstly compared with experimental data for dry-warm climate. Then, the model was evaluated and tested in real weather conditions: dry-warm, moist-warm and rainy-cold. In addition, the assumed chimney dimensions were chosen according to the literature for the studied conditions. In spite of evaluating the best nightly ventilation, different chimney wall materials were tested: solid brick, common brick and reinforced concrete. The results showed that concrete in a dry-warm climate, a metallic layer on the gap with solid brick in a moist-warm climate and reinforced concrete in a rainy cold climate used for the absorbent wall improve the thermal inertia of the social housing.

Comparison of GPCP Monthly and Daily Precipitation Estimates with High-Latitude Gauge Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolvin, David T.; Adler, Robert G.; Nelkin, Eric J.; Poutiainen, Jani

2008-01-01

It is very important to know how much rain and snow falls around the world for uses that range from crop forecasting to disaster response, drought monitoring to flood forecasting, and weather analysis to climate research. Precipitation is usually measured with rain gauges, but rain gauges don t exist in areas that are sparsely populated, which tends to be a good portion of the globe. To overcome this, meteorologists use satellite data to estimate global precipitation. However, it is difficult to estimate rain and especially snow in cold climates using most current satellites. The satellite sensors are often "confused" by a snowy or frozen surface and therefore cannot distinguish precipitation. One commonly used satellite-based precipitation data set, the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, overcomes this frozen-surface problem through the innovative use of two sources of satellite data, the Television Infrared Observation Satellite Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Though the GPCP estimates are generally considered a very reliable source of precipitation, it has been difficult to assess the quality of these estimates in cold climates due to the lack of gauges. Recently, the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) has provided a 12-year span of high-quality daily rain gauge observations, covering all of Finland, that can be used to compare with the GPCP data to determine how well the satellites estimate cold-climate precipitation. Comparison of the monthly GPCP satellite-based estimates and the FMI gauge observations shows remarkably good agreement, with the GPCP estimates being 6% lower in the amount of precipitation than the FMI observations. Furthermore, the month-to-month correlation between the GPCP and FMI is very high at 0.95 (1.0 is perfect). The daily GPCP estimates replicate the FMI daily occurrences of precipitation with a correlation of 0.55 in the summer and 0.45 in the winter. The winter result indicates the GPCP estimates have skill in "seeing" snowfall, which is the most challenging situation. Thus, the GPCP data set successfully overcomes a current limitation in satellite meteorology, namely the estimation of cold-climate precipitation. The success of the GPCP data set bodes well for future missions, whose instrumentation is specifically designed to give even more information for addressing cold-climate precipitation.

Excess warming in Central Europe after the 8.2 ka cold event: evidence from a varve-dated ostracod δ18O record from Mondsee (Austria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauterbach, Stefan; Andersen, Nils; Erlenkeuser, Helmut; Danielopol, Dan L.; Namiotko, Tadeusz; Hüls, Matthias; Belmecheri, Soumaya; Nantke, Carla; Meyer, Hanno; Chapligin, Bernhard; von Grafenstein, Uli; Brauer, Achim

2017-04-01

As evidenced by numerous palaeoclimate records worldwide, the Holocene warm period has been punctuated by several short, low-amplitude cold episodes. Among these, the so-called 8.2 ka cold event represents a particularly prominent climate anomaly. Accordingly, several proxy-based and modeling studies have addressed its causal mechanisms, absolute dating, duration, amplitude, spatio-temporal characteristics and environmental consequences so far. However, knowledge about the dynamics and causes of subsequent climate recovery is still limited although this is essential for understanding rapid climate change. Here we present a new sub-decadally resolved and precisely dated oxygen isotope (δ18O) record for the interval 7.7-8.7 ka BP derived from benthic ostracods preserved in the varved lake sediments of pre-Alpine Mondsee (Austria), providing new insights into climate development around the 8.2 ka cold event in Central Europe. The high-resolution Mondsee δ18O record reveals the occurrence of a pronounced cold spell around 8.2 ka BP, whose amplitude (˜1.0 ‰ , equivalent to a 1.5-2.0 ˚ C cooling), total duration (151 years) and absolute dating (8231-8080 varve years BP, i.e. calendar years before AD 1950) agrees well with results from other Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives, e.g. the Greenland ice cores. In addition, the Mondsee data set provides evidence for a 75-year-long δ18O overshoot directly following the 8.2 ka event (between 8080 and 8005 varve years BP), which is interpreted as a period of excess warming (about 0.5-0.6 ˚ C above the pre-8.2 ka event level) in Central Europe. Though so far not been explicitly described elsewhere, this observation is consistent with evidence from other proxy records in the North Atlantic realm, therefore likely reflecting a hemispheric-scale signal rather than a local phenomenon. As a possible trigger we suggest an enhanced resumption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), supporting assumptions from climate model simulations.

Embryonic development rates of northern grasshoppers (Orthoptera: Acrididae): implications for climate change and habitat management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Temperature-dependent rates of embryonic development are a primary determinant of the life cycle of many species of grasshoppers which, in cold climates, spend two winters in the egg stage. Knowledge of embryonic developmental rates is important for an assessment of the effects of climate change and...

RECONSTRUCTING THE ORIGINS OF HIGH-ALPINE NICHES AND CUSHION LIFE FORM IN THE GENUS ANDROSACE S.L. (PRIMULACEAE)

PubMed Central

Boucher, Florian C.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Roquet, Cristina; Douzet, Rolland; Aubert, Serge; Alvarez, Nadir; Lavergne, Sébastien

2014-01-01

Relatively, few species have been able to colonize extremely cold alpine environments. We investigate the role played by the cushion life form in the evolution of climatic niches in the plant genus Androsace s.l., which spreads across the mountain ranges of the Northern Hemisphere. Using robust methods that account for phylogenetic uncertainty, intraspecific variability of climatic requirements and different life-history evolution scenarios, we show that climatic niches of Androsace s.l. exhibit low phylogenetic signal and that they evolved relatively recently and punctually. Models of niche evolution fitted onto phylogenies show that the cushion life form has been a key innovation providing the opportunity to occupy extremely cold environments, thus contributing to rapid climatic niche diversification in the genus Androsace s.l. We then propose a plausible scenario for the adaptation of plants to alpine habitats. PMID:22486702

Is the area of the orbital opening in humans related to climate?

PubMed

Tomaszewska, Agnieszka; Kwiatkowska, Barbara; Jankauskas, Rimantas

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether climatic conditions impact the size of the anterior orbital opening in humans. The previous research has shown that morphology of the human orbit, a trait strongly related to the shape of the cranium, varies significantly among populations. However, the mechanisms of this variation are still debatable. Besides such evolutionary forces as genetic drift, climatic conditions may be involved. Thermoregulatory processes affect skull shape, and thus may also influence orbital morphology. A total of 846 dry skulls of male and female adults from three climatic areas (i.e., warm, temperate, and cold) of Europe were evaluated. The areas of the left and right orbital openings were measured using the three-dimensional contact scanner MicroScribe G2L, and analyzed with regard to climate. The results reveal a statistically significant association with climatic conditions on the area of orbital opening in accordance with Bergmann's rule. The anterior orbital opening area was smaller in male individuals from the cold climate, and larger in individuals from the warm climate areas. These data may support the hypothesized association between size of the orbital opening and adaptation to different climatic conditions, but only in males. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Thermal affinity as the dominant factor changing Mediterranean fish abundances.

PubMed

Givan, Or; Edelist, Dor; Sonin, Oren; Belmaker, Jonathan

2018-01-01

Recent decades have seen profound changes in species abundance and community composition. In the marine environment, the major anthropogenic drivers of change comprise exploitation, invasion by nonindigenous species, and climate change. However, the magnitude of these stressors has been widely debated and we lack empirical estimates of their relative importance. In this study, we focused on Eastern Mediterranean, a region exposed to an invasion of species of Red Sea origin, extreme climate change, and high fishing pressure. We estimated changes in fish abundance using two fish trawl surveys spanning a 20-year period, and correlated these changes with estimated sensitivity of species to the different stressors. We estimated sensitivity to invasion using the trait similarity between indigenous and nonindigenous species; sensitivity to fishing using a published composite index based on the species' life-history; and sensitivity to climate change using species climatic affinity based on occurrence data. Using both a meta-analytical method and random forest analysis, we found that for shallow-water species the most important driver of population size changes is sensitivity to climate change. Species with an affinity to warm climates increased in relative abundance and species with an affinity to cold climates decreased suggesting a strong response to warming local sea temperatures over recent decades. This decrease in the abundance of cold-water-associated species at the trailing "warm" end of their distribution has been rarely documented. Despite the immense biomass of nonindigenous species and the presumed high fishing pressure, these two latter factors seem to have only a minor role in explaining abundance changes. The decline in abundance of indigenous species of cold-water origin indicates a future major restructuring of fish communities in the Mediterranean in response to the ongoing warming, with unknown impacts on ecosystem function. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Measuring Race and Gender Differences in Undergraduate Students' Perceptions of Campus Climate and Intentions to Leave College: An Analysis in Black and White

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strayhorn, Terrell L.

2013-01-01

Student perceptions of campus climate environments and intentions to leave college were examined for 391 participants. Differences by race were found for perceptions of the campus climate being cold and uncaring and for expectations to encounter racism in college. Perceptions of campus climate were related to African American students' intent to…

Using a Temperature Model and GIS Analysis of Landscape Features to Assess Headwater Resilience to Climate Change in the Driftless Area of Wisconsin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuster, Z.; Potter, K. W.

2015-12-01

Cold groundwater discharges in the headwaters of streams in the Driftless Area of Wisconsin help support cold-water fisheries that are valued by anglers throughout the Midwestern U.S. With climate change expected to increase temperatures and threaten the cold-water habitat of species such as brook and brown trout, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources is focusing resources on restoration as means of adapting to climate change. One of the challenges they face is a lack of site-specific temperature data in the headwaters streams that they are targeting for restoration activities. Previous work has shown that there is a strong relationship between air and stream temperature. In this study, we calculated weekly mean air-stream temperature relationships for Driftless region headwaters streams and used air temperature projections from a set of statistically-downscaled GCM models to model thermal metrics relevant to fish species suitability described by Lyons et al. (2009) for historical (1961-2000) and future (2046-2065) conditions. We then combined the stream temperature projections with a GIS analysis of physiographic and geologic features to attempt to develop a way of predicting ungaged headwaters streams in the region that are likely to be resilient to temperature increases due to climate change.

Influences of extreme weather, climate and pesticide use on invertebrates in cereal fields over 42 years.

PubMed

Ewald, Julie A; Wheatley, Christopher J; Aebischer, Nicholas J; Moreby, Stephen J; Duffield, Simon J; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Morecroft, Michael B

2015-11-01

Cereal fields are central to balancing food production and environmental health in the face of climate change. Within them, invertebrates provide key ecosystem services. Using 42 years of monitoring data collected in southern England, we investigated the sensitivity and resilience of invertebrates in cereal fields to extreme weather events and examined the effect of long-term changes in temperature, rainfall and pesticide use on invertebrate abundance. Of the 26 invertebrate groups examined, eleven proved sensitive to extreme weather events. Average abundance increased in hot/dry years and decreased in cold/wet years for Araneae, Cicadellidae, adult Heteroptera, Thysanoptera, Braconidae, Enicmus and Lathridiidae. The average abundance of Delphacidae, Cryptophagidae and Mycetophilidae increased in both hot/dry and cold/wet years relative to other years. The abundance of all 10 groups usually returned to their long-term trend within a year after the extreme event. For five of them, sensitivity to cold/wet events was lowest (translating into higher abundances) at locations with a westerly aspect. Some long-term trends in invertebrate abundance correlated with temperature and rainfall, indicating that climate change may affect them. However, pesticide use was more important in explaining the trends, suggesting that reduced pesticide use would mitigate the effects of climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Paleoecological and climatic implications of stable isotope results from late Pleistocene bone collagen, Ziegeleigrube Coenen, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wißing, Christoph; Matzerath, Simon; Turner, Elaine; Bocherens, Hervé

2015-07-01

Climatic and ecological conditions during Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 are complex and the impact of cold spells on the ecosystems in Central Europe still needs to be investigated thoroughly. Ziegeleigrube Coenen (ZC) is a late Pleistocene MIS 3 locality in the Lower Rhine Embayment of Germany, radiocarbon-dated to > 34 14C ka BP. The site yielded a broad spectrum of mammal species. We investigated the carbon (δ13C), nitrogen (δ15N) and sulfur (δ34S) isotope signatures of bone collagen, since these are valuable tools in characterizing ecological niches, environmental conditions and aspects of climate and mobility. By comparison with pre- and post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sites in Central Europe we show that ZC belongs in a cold event of MIS 3 and was climatically more similar to post-LGM sites than to pre-LGM sites. However, the trophic structure resembled that of typical pre-LGM sites in Belgium. This cold event in MIS 3 changed the bottom of the foodweb, but do not seem to have had a direct impact on the occurrence of the mammalian species and their ecological distribution. Apparently the (mega-) faunal community could adapt also to harsher environmental conditions during MIS 3.

Sensitivity of sediment magnetic records to climate change during Holocene for the northern South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouyang, Tingping; Li, Mingkun; Zhao, Xiang; Zhu, Zhaoyu; Tian, Chengjing; Qiu, Yan; Peng, Xuechao; Hu, Qiao

2016-05-01

Magnetic property has been proved to be a sensitive proxy to climate change for both terrestrial and marine sediments. Based on the schedule frame established by AMS 14C dating of foraminifera, detail magnetic analyses were performed for core PC24 sediments at sampling intervals of 2 cm to discuss magnetic sensitivity of marine sediment to climate during Holocene for the northern South China Sea. The results indicated that: 1) Concentration dependent magnetic parameters are positive corresponding to variation of temperature. The frequency dependent susceptibility coefficient basically reflected the variation in humidity; 2) XARM/SIRM was more sensitive to detrital magnetite particles and SIRM/X was more effective to biogenic magnetite particles. Variations of XARM/SIRM and SIRM/X are corresponding to precipitation and temperature, respectively; 3) the Holocene Megathermal in the study area was identified as 7.5-3.4 cal. ka BP. The warmest stage of Holocene for the study area should be during 6.1 to 3.9 cal. ka BP; 4) The 8 ka cold event was characterized as cold and dry during 8.55 to 8.25 cal. ka BP; 5) During early and middle Holocene, the climate combinations were warm dry and cold wet. It turned to warm and wet after 2.7 cal. ka BP.

Differential Effects of Temperature Extremes on Hospital Admission Rates for Respiratory Disease between Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Australians in the Northern Territory

PubMed Central

Green, Donna; Bambrick, Hilary; Tait, Peter; Goldie, James; Schultz, Rosalie; Webb, Leanne; Alexander, Lisa; Pitman, Andrew

2015-01-01

The health gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians may be exacerbated by climate change if temperature extremes have disproportionate adverse effects on Indigenous people. To explore this issue, we analysed the effect of temperature extremes on hospital admissions for respiratory diseases, stratified by age, Indigenous status and sex, for people living in two different climates zones in the Northern Territory during the period 1993–2011. We examined admissions for both acute and chronic respiratory diagnoses, controlling for day of the week and seasonality variables. Our analysis showed that: (1) overall, Indigenous hospital admission rates far exceeded non-Indigenous admission rates for acute and chronic diagnoses, and Top End climate zone admission rates exceeded Central Australia climate zone admission rates; (2) extreme cold and hot temperatures were associated with inconsistent changes in admission rates for acute respiratory disease in Indigenous and non-Indigenous children and older adults; and (3) no response to cold or hot temperature extremes was found for chronic respiratory diagnoses. These findings support our two hypotheses, that extreme hot and cold temperatures have a different effect on hospitalisations for respiratory disease between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people, and that these health risks vary between the different climate zones. We did not, however, find that there were differing responses to temperature extremes in the two populations, suggesting that any increased vulnerability to climate change in the Indigenous population of the Northern Territory arises from an increased underlying risk to respiratory disease and an already greater existing health burden. PMID:26633456

The lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease mortality in a subtropical climate zone in China.

PubMed

Huang, Jixia; Wang, Jinfeng; Yu, Weiwei

2014-04-11

This research quantifies the lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease in Changsha--a subtropical climate zone of China. A Poisson regression model within a distributed lag nonlinear models framework was used to examine the lag effects of cold- and heat-related CVD mortality. The lag effect for heat-related CVD mortality was just 0-3 days. In contrast, we observed a statistically significant association with 10-25 lag days for cold-related CVD mortality. Low temperatures with 0-2 lag days increased the mortality risk for those ≥65 years and females. For all ages, the cumulative effects of cold-related CVD mortality was 6.6% (95% CI: 5.2%-8.2%) for 30 lag days while that of heat-related CVD mortality was 4.9% (95% CI: 2.0%-7.9%) for 3 lag days. We found that in Changsha city, the lag effect of hot temperatures is short while the lag effect of cold temperatures is long. Females and older people were more sensitive to extreme hot and cold temperatures than males and younger people.

Trends in Cold Extremes and Winter Weather for the SPTC Region

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-05-31

Extreme weather poses multifaceted hazards to transportation. There is now increased awareness of the threats of climate variability and change on transportation safety and state of good repair. In particular, a non-stationary climate will potentiall...

Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

PubMed Central

Lowe, Rachel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R.; Rodó, Xavier

2015-01-01

The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003), the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution) for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003), mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality predictions could potentially be made several months ahead of imminent heat waves and cold spells. PMID:25625407

How sea ice could be the cold beating heart of European weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margrethe Ringgaard, Ida; Yang, Shuting; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens; Kaas, Eigil

2017-04-01

The possibility that the ongoing rapid demise of Arctic sea ice may instigate abrupt changes is, however, not tackled by current research in general. Ice cores from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) show clear evidence of past abrupt warm events with up to 15 degrees warming in less than a decade, most likely triggered by rapid disappearance of Nordic Seas sea ice. At present, both Arctic Sea ice and the GIS are in strong transformation: Arctic sea-ice cover has been retreating during most of the satellite era and in recent years, Arctic sea ice experienced a dramatic reduction and the summer extent was in 2012 and 2016 only half of the 1979-2000 average. With such dramatic change in the current sea ice coverage as a point of departure, several studies have linked reduction in wintertime sea ice in the Barents-Kara seas to cold weather anomalies over Europe and through large scale tele-connections to regional warming elsewhere. Here we aim to investigate if, and how, Arctic sea ice impacts European weather, i.e. if the Arctic sea ice works as the 'cold heart' of European weather. To understand the effects of the sea ice reduction on the full climate system, a fully-coupled global climate model, EC-Earth, is used. A new energy-conserving method for assimilating sea ice using the sensible heat flux is implemented in the coupled climate model and compared to the traditional, non-conserving, method of assimilating sea ice. Using this new method, experiments are performed with reduced sea ice cover in the Barents-Kara seas under both warm and cold conditions in Europe. These experiments are used to evaluate how the Arctic sea ice modulates European winter weather under present climate conditions with a view towards favouring both relatively cold and warm conditions.

Evaluating the performance of a climate-driven mortality model during heat waves and cold spells in Europe.

PubMed

Lowe, Rachel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R; Rodó, Xavier

2015-01-23

The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998-2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1-15 August 2003), the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution) for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1-15 January 2003), mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality predictions could potentially be made several months ahead of imminent heat waves and cold spells.

Ecological consequences of the expansion of N₂-fixing plants in cold biomes.

PubMed

Hiltbrunner, Erika; Aerts, Rien; Bühlmann, Tobias; Huss-Danell, Kerstin; Magnusson, Borgthor; Myrold, David D; Reed, Sasha C; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D; Körner, Christian

2014-09-01

Research in warm-climate biomes has shown that invasion by symbiotic dinitrogen (N2)-fixing plants can transform ecosystems in ways analogous to the transformations observed as a consequence of anthropogenic, atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition: declines in biodiversity, soil acidification, and alterations to carbon and nutrient cycling, including increased N losses through nitrate leaching and emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O). Here, we used literature review and case study approaches to assess the evidence for similar transformations in cold-climate ecosystems of the boreal, subarctic and upper montane-temperate life zones. Our assessment focuses on the plant genera Lupinus and Alnus, which have become invasive largely as a consequence of deliberate introductions and/or reduced land management. These cold biomes are commonly located in remote areas with low anthropogenic N inputs, and the environmental impacts of N2-fixer invasion appear to be as severe as those from anthropogenic N deposition in highly N polluted areas. Hence, inputs of N from N2 fixation can affect ecosystems as dramatically or even more strongly than N inputs from atmospheric deposition, and biomes in cold climates represent no exception with regard to the risk of being invaded by N2-fixing species. In particular, the cold biomes studied here show both a strong potential to be transformed by N2-fixing plants and a rapid subsequent saturation in the ecosystem's capacity to retain N. Therefore, analogous to increases in N deposition, N2-fixing plant invasions must be deemed significant threats to biodiversity and to environmental quality.

Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaq, Moetasim; Ghosh, Subimal; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Bowling, Laura C.; Mote, Philip; Touma, Danielle; Rauscher, Sara A.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2013-10-01

Given its large population, vigorous and water-intensive agricultural industry, and important ecological resources, the western United States presents a valuable case study for examining potential near-term changes in regional hydroclimate. Using a high-resolution, hierarchical, five-member ensemble modeling experiment that includes a global climate model (Community Climate System Model), a regional climate model (RegCM), and a hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity model), we find that increases in greenhouse forcing over the next three decades result in an acceleration of decreases in spring snowpack and a transition to a substantially more liquid-dominated water resources regime. These hydroclimatic changes are associated with increases in cold-season days above freezing and decreases in the cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio. The changes in the temperature and precipitation regime in turn result in shifts toward earlier snowmelt, base flow, and runoff dates throughout the region, as well as reduced annual and warm-season snowmelt and runoff. The simulated hydrologic response is dominated by changes in temperature, with the ensemble members exhibiting varying trends in cold-season precipitation over the next three decades but consistent negative trends in cold-season freeze days, cold-season snow-to-precipitation ratio, and 1 April snow water equivalent. Given the observed impacts of recent trends in snowpack and snowmelt runoff, the projected acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S. has important implications for the availability of water for agriculture, hydropower, and human consumption, as well as for the risk of wildfire, forest die-off, and loss of riparian habitat.

Ecological consequences of the expansion of N2-fixing plants in cold biomes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hiltbrunner, Erika; Aerts, Rien; Bühlmann, Tobias; Huss-Danell, Kerstin; Magnusson, Borgthor; Myrold, David D.; Reed, Sasha C.; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D.; Körner, Christian

2014-01-01

Research in warm-climate biomes has shown that invasion by symbiotic dinitrogen (N2)-fixing plants can transform ecosystems in ways analogous to the transformations observed as a consequence of anthropogenic, atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition: declines in biodiversity, soil acidification, and alterations to carbon and nutrient cycling, including increased N losses through nitrate leaching and emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O). Here, we used literature review and case study approaches to assess the evidence for similar transformations in cold-climate ecosystems of the boreal, subarctic and upper montane-temperate life zones. Our assessment focuses on the plant genera Lupinus and Alnus, which have become invasive largely as a consequence of deliberate introductions and/or reduced land management. These cold biomes are commonly located in remote areas with low anthropogenic N inputs, and the environmental impacts of N2-fixer invasion appear to be as severe as those from anthropogenic N deposition in highly N polluted areas. Hence, inputs of N from N2 fixation can affect ecosystems as dramatically or even more strongly than N inputs from atmospheric deposition, and biomes in cold climates represent no exception with regard to the risk of being invaded by N2-fixing species. In particular, the cold biomes studied here show both a strong potential to be transformed by N2-fixing plants and a rapid subsequent saturation in the ecosystem’s capacity to retain N. Therefore, analogous to increases in N deposition, N2-fixing plant invasions must be deemed significant threats to biodiversity and to environmental quality.

Relationship between carbohydrate concentration and root growth potential in coniferous seedlings from three climates during cold hardening and dehardening

Treesearch

R.W. Tinus; K.E. Burr; N. Atzmon; J. Riov

2000-01-01

Greenhouse-cultured, container-grown seedlings of Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.), radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don), and interior Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca (Beissn.) Franco) were cold acclimated and deacclimated in growth chambers over 24 weeks....

Biophysical evaluation of footwear for cold-weather climates.

PubMed

Santee, W R; Endrusick, T L

1988-02-01

Proper selection of footwear for cold-wet environments is important in determining individual performance and comfort. Testing only total dry insulation (It) is not a wholly adequate basis for boot selection. The present study demonstrates an effective method for evaluating the effects of surface moisture on boot insulation. This method allows a more knowledgeable selection of footwear for cold-wet climates. In this study, regional insulation values were obtained under dry conditions, then during a soak in shallow water, and finally for insulation recovery after removal from water. Results for seven boots show no advantage of presently used synthetic materials during short soak episodes. Insulated leather-synthetic boots, however, recovered to dry insulation levels more rapidly than more traditional insulated leather boots. Rubber waterproof bottoms were the most effective boot construction for retaining insulation levels during water exposure.

Extremely cold and hot temperatures increase the risk of ischaemic heart disease mortality: epidemiological evidence from China.

PubMed

Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Zhang, Yanshen; Armstrong, Ben; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Tong, Shilu; Pan, Xiaochuan

2013-02-01

To examine the effects of extremely cold and hot temperatures on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou) in China; and to examine the time relationships between cold and hot temperatures and IHD mortality for each city. A negative binomial regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine city-specific temperature effects on IHD mortality up to 20 lag days. A meta-analysis was used to pool the cold effects and hot effects across the five cities. 16 559 IHD deaths were monitored by a sentinel surveillance system in five cities during 2004-2008. The relationships between temperature and IHD mortality were non-linear in all five cities. The minimum-mortality temperatures in northern cities were lower than in southern cities. In Beijing, Tianjin and Guangzhou, the effects of extremely cold temperatures were delayed, while Shanghai and Wuhan had immediate cold effects. The effects of extremely hot temperatures appeared immediately in all the cities except Wuhan. Meta-analysis showed that IHD mortality increased 48% at the 1st percentile of temperature (extremely cold temperature) compared with the 10th percentile, while IHD mortality increased 18% at the 99th percentile of temperature (extremely hot temperature) compared with the 90th percentile. Results indicate that both extremely cold and hot temperatures increase IHD mortality in China. Each city has its characteristics of heat effects on IHD mortality. The policy for response to climate change should consider local climate-IHD mortality relationships.

Life-history correlations with seasonal cold hardiness in maritime pine.

PubMed

Prada, Eva; Climent, José; Alía, Ricardo; Díaz, Raquel

2016-12-01

Plants have developed mechanisms to withstand stressful environmental conditions, but the high energetic cost of these mechanisms may involve exchanges with other key functions. While trade-offs between cold hardiness and growth rates are a general assumption, we lack information regarding genetically based trade-offs between cold hardiness and other life-history traits. Such information has strong implications for tree conservation and breeding, especially in the context of ongoing climate change. We used a common garden progeny test to examine the relationships between seasonal cold hardiness and life-history traits of growth, reproduction, juvenile ontogeny, and phenology in 75 families of six maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) populations, three of continental and three of coastal origins. We found a clear differentiation among populations with regard to cold hardiness and life-history traits. Two continental Iberian populations showed high cold tolerance and slower growth, but faster ontogenetic development in relation to both vegetative heteroblastic change in juveniles and the onset of female reproduction. The coastal populations displayed the opposite behavior, while the continental Moroccan population presented a unique combination of traits. We confirmed trade-offs between cold-hardiness and growth at the population level, but not within populations. There were no trade-offs with other life-history traits at either level. Relevant local adaptation syndromes were identified in the relationship between cold hardiness and life-history traits. These should be considered in developing tree management guidelines aimed at increasing productivity or adaptability under the expected conditions of climate change. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Hot Talk, Cold Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oglesby, Robert J.

One of the hottest topics in climate science is understanding and evaluating the impacts of possible global warming caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. In Hot Talk, Cold Science, S. Fred Singer does not accept global warming. Singer says in his preface, “The purpose of this book is to demonstrate that the evidence [for global warming] is neither settled, nor compelling, nor even convincing. On the contrary, scientists continue to discover new mechanisms for climate change and to put forth new theories to try to account for the fact that global temperature is not rising, even though greenhouse theory says it should”.

Anticipated climate warming effects on bull trout habitats and populations across the interior Columbia River basin

Treesearch

Bruce E. Rieman; Daniel Isaak; Susan Adams; Dona Horan; David Nagel; Charles Luce; Deborah Myers

2007-01-01

A warming climate could profoundly affect the distribution and abundance of many fishes. Bull trout Salvelinus confluentus may be especially vulnerable to climate change given that spawning and early rearing are constrained by cold water temperatures creating a patchwork of natal headwater habitats across river networks. Because the size and...

Climate change and bark beetles of the western United States and Canada: Direct and indirect effects

Treesearch

Barbara J. Bentz; Jacques Regniere; Christopher J. Fettig; E. Matthew Hansen; Jane L. Hayes; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Rick G. Kelsey; Jose F. Negron; Steven J. Seybold

2010-01-01

Climatic changes are predicted to significantly affect the frequency and severity of disturbances that shape forest ecosystems. We provide a synthesis of climate change effects on native bark beetles, important mortality agents of conifers in western North America. Because of differences in temperature-dependent life-history strategies, including cold-induced mortality...

Projected climate-induced habitat loss for salmonids in the John Day River network, Oregon, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruesch, Aaron S.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Olden, Julian D.; Peterson, Erin E.; Volk, Carol J.; Lawrence, David J.

2012-01-01

Climate change will likely have profound effects on cold-water species of freshwater fishes. As temperatures rise, cold-water fish distributions may shift and contract in response. Predicting the effects of projected stream warming in stream networks is complicated by the generally poor correlation between water temperature and air temperature. Spatial dependencies in stream networks are complex because the geography of stream processes is governed by dimensions of flow direction and network structure. Therefore, forecasting climate-driven range shifts of stream biota has lagged behind similar terrestrial modeling efforts. We predicted climate-induced changes in summer thermal habitat for 3 cold-water fish species—juvenile Chinook salmon, rainbow trout, and bull trout (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, O. mykiss, and Salvelinus confluentus, respectively)—in the John Day River basin, northwestern United States. We used a spatially explicit statistical model designed to predict water temperature in stream networks on the basis of flow and spatial connectivity. The spatial distribution of stream temperature extremes during summers from 1993 through 2009 was largely governed by solar radiation and interannual extremes of air temperature. For a moderate climate change scenario, estimated declines by 2100 in the volume of habitat for Chinook salmon, rainbow trout, and bull trout were 69–95%, 51–87%, and 86–100%, respectively. Although some restoration strategies may be able to offset these projected effects, such forecasts point to how and where restoration and management efforts might focus.

The relationship between climate change and wars waged between nomadic and farming groups from the Western Han Dynasty to the Tang Dynasty period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Y.; Liu, L.; Fang, X. Q.; Ma, Y. N.

2016-01-01

In ancient China, shifts in regional productivity of agriculture and animal husbandry, caused by climate change, either led to wars or peaceful relations between nomadic and farming groups. During the period spanning the Western Han Dynasty to the Tang Dynasty, 367 wars were waged between these groups. While 69 % of the wars were initiated by nomads, 62.4 % were won by the farming groups. On a centennial timescale, the battlegrounds were mostly in northern areas (at an average latitude of 38.92° N) during warm periods, moving southward (at an average latitude of 34.66° N) during cold periods. On a decadal timescale, warm climates corresponded to a high incidence of wars (a correlation coefficient of 0.293). While farming groups were inclined to initiate wars during dry and cold periods, their chances of achieving victory were reduced at such times. The main reasons for this are, first, that a warm climate provided a solid material foundation for nomadic and farming groups, contributing especially to enhanced productivity among the former. However, the overriding desire of nomadic groups to expand essential subsistence means led to wars. Second, during cold periods, farming groups moved to and settled in the south, while nomadic groups occupied the Central Plain. Thus, the locations of the battlefields also changed. While other factors also influenced these wars, climate change served as a backdrop, playing an indirect role in wars between these groups.

Low temperature tolerance, cold hardening and acclimation in tadpoles of the neotropical túngara frog (Engystomops pustulosus).

PubMed

Vo, Pacific; Gridi-Papp, Marcos

2017-05-01

Many frogs from temperate climates can tolerate low temperatures and increase their thermal tolerance through hardening and acclimation. Most tropical frogs, on the other hand, fail to acclimate to low temperatures. This lack of acclimation ability is potentially due to lack of selection pressure for acclimation because cold weather is less common in the tropics. We tested the generality of this pattern by characterizing the critical temperature minimum (CTMin), hardening, and acclimation responses of túngara frogs (Engystomops pustulosus). These frogs belong to a family with unknown thermal ecology. They are found in a tropical habitat with a highly constant temperature regime. The CTMin of the tadpoles was on average 12.5°C. Pre-metamorphic tadpoles hardened by 1.18°C, while metamorphic tadpoles hardened by 0.36°C. When raised at 21°C, tadpoles acclimated expanding their cold tolerance by 1.3°C in relation to larvae raised at 28°C. These results indicate that the túngara frog has a greatly reduced cold tolerance when compared to species from temperate climates, but it responds to cold temperatures with hardening and acclimation comparable to those of temperate-zone species. Cold tolerance increased with body length but cold hardening was more extensive in pre-metamorphic tadpoles than in metamorphic ones. This study shows that lack of acclimation ability is not general to the physiology of tropical anurans. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptation to seasonality and the winter freeze

PubMed Central

Preston, Jill C.; Sandve, Simen R.

2013-01-01

Flowering plants initially diversified during the Mesozoic era at least 140 million years ago in regions of the world where temperate seasonal environments were not encountered. Since then several cooling events resulted in the contraction of warm and wet environments and the establishment of novel temperate zones in both hemispheres. In response, less than half of modern angiosperm families have members that evolved specific adaptations to cold seasonal climates, including cold acclimation, freezing tolerance, endodormancy, and vernalization responsiveness. Despite compelling evidence for multiple independent origins, the level of genetic constraint on the evolution of adaptations to seasonal cold is not well understood. However, the recent increase in molecular genetic studies examining the response of model and crop species to seasonal cold offers new insight into the evolutionary lability of these traits. This insight has major implications for our understanding of complex trait evolution, and the potential role of local adaptation in response to past and future climate change. In this review, we discuss the biochemical, morphological, and developmental basis of adaptations to seasonal cold, and synthesize recent literature on the genetic basis of these traits in a phylogenomic context. We find evidence for multiple genetic links between distinct physiological responses to cold, possibly reinforcing the coordinated expression of these traits. Furthermore, repeated recruitment of the same or similar ancestral pathways suggests that land plants might be somewhat pre-adapted to dealing with temperature stress, perhaps making inducible cold traits relatively easy to evolve. PMID:23761798

Climatological temperature senstivity of soil carbon turnover: Observations, simple scaling models, and ESMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, C. D.; Hugelius, G.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wieder, W. R.

2016-12-01

The projected loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere resulting from climate change is a potentially large but highly uncertain feedback to warming. The magnitude of this feedback is poorly constrained by observations and theory, and is disparately represented in Earth system models. To assess the likely long-term response of soils to climate change, spatial gradients in soil carbon turnover times can identify broad-scale and long-term controls on the rate of carbon cycling as a function of climate and other factors. Here we show that the climatological temperature control on carbon turnover in the top meter of global soils is more sensitive in cold climates than in warm ones. We present a simplified model that explains the high cold-climate sensitivity using only the physical scaling of soil freeze-thaw state across climate gradients. Critically, current Earth system models (ESMs) fail to capture this pattern, however it emerges from an ESM that explicitly resolves vertical gradients in soil climate and turnover. The weak tropical temperature sensitivity emerges from a different model that explicitly resolves mineralogical control on decomposition. These results support projections of strong future carbon-climate feedbacks from northern soils and demonstrate a method for ESMs to capture this emergent behavior.

Changes in Concurrent Precipitation and Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.

2013-08-01

While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes, analyses of concurrence of climate extremes are scarce, and climate change effects on joint extremes are rarely considered. This study assesses the occurrence of joint (concurrent) monthly continental precipitation and temperature extremes in Climate Research Unit (CRU) and University of Delaware (UD) observations, and in 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate simulations. Moreover, the joint occurrences of precipitation and temperature extremes simulated by CMIP5 climate models are compared with those derived from the CRU and UD observations for warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry combinations of joint extremes.more » The number of occurrences of these four combinations during the second half of the 20th century (1951–2004) is assessed on a common global grid. CRU and UD observations show substantial increases in the occurrence of joint warm/dry and warm/wet combinations for the period 1978–2004 relative to 1951–1977. The results show that with respect to the sign of change in the concurrent extremes, the CMIP5 climate model simulations are in reasonable overall agreement with observations. The results reveal notable discrepancies between regional patterns and the magnitude of change in individual climate model simulations relative to the observations of precipitation and temperature.« less

Integrating new indicators of predictors that shape the public's perception of local extreme temperature in China.

PubMed

Ban, Jie; Huang, Lei; Chen, Chen; Guo, Yuming; He, Mike Z; Li, Tiantian

2017-02-01

The public's risk perception of local extreme heat or cold plays a critical role in community health and prevention under climate change. However, there is limited evidence on such issues in China where extreme weather is occurring more frequently due to climate change. Here, a total of 2500 residents were selected using a three-step sampling method and investigated by a questionnaire in two representative cities. We investigated risk perception of extreme heat in Beijing and extreme cold in Harbin in 2013, aiming to examine their possible correlations with multiple epidemiological factors. We found that exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive ability were significant predictors in shaping public risk perceptions of local extreme temperature. In particular, a 1°C increase in daily temperature resulted in an increased odds of perceiving serious extreme heat in Beijing (OR=1.091; 95% CI: 1.032, 1.153), while a 1°C increase in daily temperature resulted in a decreased odds of perceiving serious extreme cold in Harbin (OR=0.965; 95% CI: 0.939, 0.992). Therefore for both extreme heat and cold, frequent local extreme temperature exposure may amplify a stronger communication. Health interventions for extreme temperature should consider exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive ability factors. This will help improve the public's perception of climatic changes and their willingness to balance adaption and mitigation appropriately. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Eastern Pacific cooling and Atlantic overturning circulation during the last deglaciation.

PubMed

Kienast, Markus; Kienast, Stephanie S; Calvert, Stephen E; Eglinton, Timothy I; Mollenhauer, Gesine; François, Roger; Mix, Alan C

2006-10-19

Surface ocean conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean could hold the clue to whether millennial-scale global climate change during glacial times was initiated through tropical ocean-atmosphere feedbacks or by changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. North Atlantic cold periods during Heinrich events and millennial-scale cold events (stadials) have been linked with climatic changes in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and South America, as well as the Indian and East Asian monsoon systems, but not with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures. Here we present a high-resolution record of sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific derived from alkenone unsaturation measurements. Our data show a temperature drop of approximately 1 degrees C, synchronous (within dating uncertainties) with the shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during Heinrich event 1, and a smaller temperature drop of approximately 0.5 degrees C synchronous with the smaller reduction in the overturning circulation during the Younger Dryas event. Both cold events coincide with maxima in surface ocean productivity as inferred from 230Th-normalized carbon burial fluxes, suggesting increased upwelling at the time. From the concurrence of equatorial Pacific cooling with the two North Atlantic cold periods during deglaciation, we conclude that these millennial-scale climate changes were probably driven by a reorganization of the oceans' thermohaline circulation, although possibly amplified by tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction as suggested before.

Thermohaline circulation: a missing equation and its climate-change implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ou, Hsien-Wang

2018-01-01

We formulate a box model of coupled ocean-atmosphere to examine the differential fields interactive with the thermohaline circulation (THC) and their response to global warming. We discern a robust convective bound on the atmospheric heat transport, which would divide the climate regime into warm and cold branches; but unlike the saline mode of previous box models, the cold state, if allowed, has the same-signed—though weaker—density contrast and THC as the present climate, which may explain its emergence from coupled general circulation models. We underscore the nondeterminacy of the THC due to random eddy shedding and apply the fluctuation theorem to constrain the shedding rate, thus closing the problem. The derivation reveals an ocean propelled toward the maximum entropy production (MEP) on millennial timescale (termed "MEP-adjustment"), the long timescale arising from the compounding effect of microscopic fluctuations in the shedding rate and their slight probability bias. Global warming may induce hysteresis between the two branches, like that seen in GCMs, but the cold transition is far more sensitive to the moistening than the heating effects as the latter would be countered by the hydrological feedback. The uni- or bi-modality of the current state—hence whether the THC may recover after the cold transition—depends on the global-mean convective flux and may not be easily assessed due to its observed uncertainty.

Artificial Permafrost and the Application to the Low Temperature Storage for Foodstuffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryokai, Kimitoshi; Fukuda, Masami

In the cold regions like Hokkaido and Tohoku Districts, they have been advocating snow-overcoming, advantages of snow and effective utilization of cold climate. In fact, they have been positively trying to make use of snow and coldness as water resources, energy sources, structural materials and so on. One of energy utilization is for low temperature storage of foods. Since the potatoes have properties of adapting themselves to cold temperature when they are stored under cold environment, they have the tendency of growing in their sugar contents. As the results, all those foods which are stored under these cold environments will be the products of higher additional value. Here we will introduce the present situation of low temperature storage of foods by artificial permafrost, not only as the construction materials for cold storage house itself but also utilizing its own cold temperature.

Research on Energy-saving Shape Design of High School Library Building in Cold Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Zhao; Weishuang, Xie; Zirui, Tong

2017-11-01

Considering climatic characteristics in cold region, existing high school libraries in Changchun are researched according to investigation of real conditions of these library buildings. Mathematical analysis and CAD methods are used to summarize the relation between building shape and building energy saving of high school library. Strategies are put forward for sustainable development of high school library building in cold region, providing reliable design basis for construction of high school libraries in Changchun.

Soil Crystallinity As a Climate Indicator: Field Experiments on Earth and Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horgan, Briony; Scudder, Noel; Rampe, Elizabeth; Rutledge, Alicia

2016-01-01

Soil crystallinity is largely determined by leaching rates, as high leaching rates favor the rapid precipitation of short order or poorly-crystalline phases like the aluminosilicate allophane. High leaching rates can occur due to high precipitation rates, seasonal monsoons, or weathering of glass, but are also caused by the rapid onset of seasonal melting of snow and ice in cold environments. Thus, cold climate soils are commonly dominated by poorly crystalline phases, which mature into kaolin minerals over time. Thus, we hypothesize that, in some contexts, soils with high abundances of poorly crystalline phases could indicate formation under cold climatic conditions. This model could be helpful in interpreting the poorly-constrained paleoclimate of ancient Mars, as the crystallinity of ancient soils and soil-derived sediments appears to be highly variable in time and space. While strong signatures of crystalline phyllosilicates have been identified in possible ancient paleosols on Mars, Mars Science Laboratory rover investigations of diverse ancient sediments at Gale Crater has shown that they can contain very high abundances (40-50 wt%) of poorly crystalline phases. We hypothesize that these poorly crystalline phases could be the result of weathering by ice/snow melt, perhaps providing support for sustained cold climates on early Mars punctuated by more limited warm climates. Furthermore, such poorly crystalline soils could be highly fertile growth media for future human exploration and colonization on Mars. To test this hypothesis, we are currently using rover-like instrumentation to investigate the mineralogy and chemistry of weathering products generated by snow and ice melt in a Mars analog alpine environment: the glaciated Three Sisters volcanic complex in central Oregon. Alteration in this glacial environment generates high abundances of poorly crystalline phases, many of which have compositions distinct from those identified in previous terrestrial investigations, and perhaps more similar to poorly crystalline phases identified on Mars.

Vegetation and climate history in arid western China during MIS2: New insights from pollen and grain-size data of the Balikun Lake, eastern Tien Shan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yongtao; An, Cheng-Bang; Mao, Limi; Zhao, Jiaju; Tang, Lingyu; Zhou, Aifeng; Li, Hu; Dong, Weimiao; Duan, Futao; Chen, Fahu

2015-10-01

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 is mostly a cold period encompassing the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), but the regional expression of MIS2 in arid areas of China is not well known. In this paper, we use high-resolution lacustrine pollen and grain-size records from Balikun Lake to infer vegetation, lake evolution, and climate in arid western China during MIS2. Our results suggest that: 1) the regional vegetation around Balikun was mainly dominated by desert and/or desert-steppe, and Balikun Lake was relatively shallow and experienced high aeolian input during MIS2; 2) distinctive runoff from mountain glacial meltwater in the eastern parts of the Balikun basin caused a high relative abundance of Artemisia pollen during the LGM (26.5-19.2 cal kyr BP), while simultaneously the desert areas expanded as indicated by the high abundance of desert shrubs (e.g., Elaeagnaceae, Rhamnaceae, Hippophae). This cold and dry LGM climate triggered a substantial lowering of lake level; 3) an extremely cold and dry climate prevailing from 17.0 to 15.2 cal kyr BP, correlated with Heinrich event 1 (H1), would explain the low vegetation cover found then; and 4) the warm and humid Bølling/Allerød interstadial (BA: ca. 15-ca. 13 cal kyr BP) is clearly recorded in the Balikun region by the development of wetland herb communities (e.g., Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Typha), and the lake level rose due to increased runoff. Our results challenge the traditional view of cold and wet climatic conditions and high lake levels in arid western China during the LGM, and we propose that changes in local temperature modulated by July insolation was an indispensable factor in triggering vegetation evolution in the Balikun region during MIS2.

Wet and cold climate conditions recorded by coral geochemical proxies during the beginning of the first millennium CE in the northern South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Hangfang; Deng, Wenfeng; Chen, Xuefei; Wei, Gangjian; Zeng, Ti; Zhao, Jian-xin

2017-03-01

The past two millennia include some distinct climate intervals, such as the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), which were caused by natural forcing factors, as well as the Current Warm Period (CWP) that has been linked to anthropogenic factors. Therefore, this period has been of great interest to climate change researchers. However, most studies are based on terrestrial proxy records, historical documentary data, and simulation results, and the ocean and the tropical record are very limited. The Eastern Han, Three Kingdoms, and Western Jin periods (25-316 CE) cover the beginning first millennium CE in China, and were characterized by a cold climate and frequent wars and regime changes. This study used paired Sr/Ca and δ18O series recovered from a fossil coral to reconstruct the sea surface water conditions during the late Eastern Han to Western Jin periods (167-309 CE) at Wenchang, eastern Hainan Island in the northern South China Sea (SCS), to investigate climate change at this time. The long-term sea surface temperature (SST) during the study interval was 25.1 °C, which is about 1.5 °C lower than that of the CWP (26.6 °C). Compared with the average value of 0.40‰ during the CWP, the long-term average seawater δ18O (-0.06‰) was more negative. These results indicate that the climate conditions during the study period were cold and wet and comparable with those of the LIA. This colder climate may have been associated with the weaker summer solar irradiance. The wet conditions were caused by the reduced northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone/monsoon rainbelt associated with the retreat of the East Asian summer monsoon. Interannual and interdecadal climate variability may also have contributed to the variations in SST and seawater δ18O recorded over the study period.

How Does Snow Persistence Relate to Annual Streamflow in Mountain Watersheds of the Western U.S. With Wet Maritime and Dry Continental Climates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammond, John C.; Saavedra, Freddy A.; Kampf, Stephanie K.

2018-04-01

With climate warming, many regions are experiencing changes in snow accumulation and persistence. These changes are known to affect streamflow volume, but the magnitude of the effect varies between regions. This research evaluates whether variables derived from remotely sensed snow cover can be used to estimate annual streamflow at the small watershed scale across the western U.S., a region with a wide range of climate types. We compared snow cover variables derived from MODIS, snow persistence (SP), and snow season (SS), to more commonly utilized metrics, snow fraction (fraction of precipitation falling as snow, SF), and peak snow water equivalent (SWE). Each variable represents different information about snow, and this comparison assesses similarities and differences between the snow metrics. Next, we evaluated how two snow variables, SP and SWE, related to annual streamflow (Q) for 119 USGS reference watersheds and examined whether these relationships varied for wet/warm (precipitation surplus) and dry/cold (precipitation deficit) watersheds. Results showed high correlations between all snow variables, but the slopes of these relationships differed between climates, with wet/warm watersheds displaying lower SF and higher SWE for the same SP. In dry/cold watersheds, both SP and SNODAS SWE correlated with Q spatially across all watersheds and over time within individual watersheds. We conclude that SP can be used to map spatial patterns of annual streamflow generation in dry/cold parts of the region. Applying this approach to the Upper Colorado River Basin demonstrates that 50% of streamflow comes from areas >3,000 masl. If the relationship between SP and Q is similar in other dry/cold regions, this approach could be used to estimate annual streamflow in ungauged basins.

Determination of the structure and catalytic mechanism of sorghum bicolor caffeoyl-CoA O-methyltransferase

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Although cold acclimation is a key process in plants from temperate climates, the mechanisms sensing low temperature remain obscure. Here, we show that the accumulation of the organic acid fumaric acid, mediated by the cytosolic fumarase FUM2, is essential for cold acclimation of metabolism in the c...

Cold air drainage flows subsidize montane valley ecosystem productivity

Treesearch

Kimberly A. Novick; Andrew C. Oishi; Chelcy Ford Miniat

2016-01-01

In mountainous areas, cold air drainage from high to low elevations has pronounced effects on local temperature, which is a critical driver of many ecosystem processes, including carbon uptake and storage. Here, we leverage new approaches for interpreting ecosystem carbon flux observations in complex terrain to quantify the links between macro-climate...

Assessment of five cold chilling tolerance traits and GWAS mapping in rice using the USDA mini-core collection

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is often exposed to cool or cold temperatures during spring planting in a temperate climate. A better understanding of the genetic pathways regulating this chilling tolerance will enable breeders to develop varieties with improved tolerance during the germination and young see...

Dealing with frost damage and climate change in tree fruit crops

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Each year, the U.S. produces about 15 million tons of deciduous fruit crops that have a combined value of >$10 billion. Unpredictable cold damage to these nutritionally important crops is a major threat to industry profitability. Over the last six years, cold damage has accounted for almost half o...

What Is a Mild Winter? Regional Differences in Within-Species Responses to Climate Change.

PubMed

Vetter, Sebastian G; Ruf, Thomas; Bieber, Claudia; Arnold, Walter

2015-01-01

Climate change is known to affect ecosystems globally, but our knowledge of its impact on large and widespread mammals, and possibly population-specific responses is still sparse. We investigated large-scale and long-term effects of climate change on local population dynamics using the wild boar (Sus scrofa L.) as a model species. Our results show that population increases across Europe are strongly associated with increasingly mild winters, yet with region-specific threshold temperatures for the onset of exponential growth. Additionally, we found that abundant availability of critical food resources, e.g. beech nuts, can outweigh the negative effects of cold winters on population growth of wild boar. Availability of beech nuts is highly variable and highest in years of beech mast which increased in frequency since 1980, according to our data. We conclude that climate change drives population growth of wild boar directly by relaxing the negative effect of cold winters on survival and reproduction, and indirectly by increasing food availability. However, region-specific responses need to be considered in order to fully understand a species' demographic response to climate change.

Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove species' range expansion.

PubMed

Cavanaugh, Kyle C; Parker, John D; Cook-Patton, Susan C; Feller, Ilka C; Williams, A Park; Kellner, James R

2015-05-01

Predictions of climate-related shifts in species ranges have largely been based on correlative models. Due to limitations of these models, there is a need for more integration of experimental approaches when studying impacts of climate change on species distributions. Here, we used controlled experiments to identify physiological thresholds that control poleward range limits of three species of mangroves found in North America. We found that all three species exhibited a threshold response to extreme cold, but freeze tolerance thresholds varied among species. From these experiments, we developed a climate metric, freeze degree days (FDD), which incorporates both the intensity and the frequency of freezes. When included in distribution models, FDD accurately predicted mangrove presence/absence. Using 28 years of satellite imagery, we linked FDD to observed changes in mangrove abundance in Florida, further exemplifying the importance of extreme cold. We then used downscaled climate projections of FDD to project that these range limits will move northward by 2.2-3.2 km yr(-1) over the next 50 years. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Punctuated Holocene climate of Vestfirðir, Iceland, linked to internal/external variables and oceanographic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harning, David J.; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford H.

2018-06-01

Emerging Holocene paleoclimate datasets point to a non-linear response of Icelandic climate against a background of steady orbital cooling. The Vestfirðir peninsula (NW Iceland) is an ideal target for continued climate reconstructions due to the presence of a small ice cap (Drangajökull) and numerous lakes, which provide two independent means to evaluate existing Icelandic climate records and to constrain the forcing mechanisms behind centennial-scale cold anomalies. Here, we present new evidence for Holocene expansions of Drangajökull based on 14C dates from entombed dead vegetation as well as two continuous Holocene lake sediment records. Lake sediments were analyzed for both bulk physical (MS) and biological (%TOC, δ13C, C/N, and BSi) parameters. Composite BSi and C/N records from the two lakes yield a sub-centennial qualitative perspective on algal (diatom) productivity and terrestrial landscape stability, respectively. The Vestfirðir lake proxies suggest initiation of the Holocene Thermal Maximum by ∼8.8 ka with subsequent and pronounced cooling not apparent until ∼3 ka. Synchronous periods of reduced algal productivity and accelerated landscape instability point to cold anomalies centered at ∼8.2, 6.6, 4.2, 3.3, 2.3, 1.8, 1, and 0.25 ka. Triggers for cold anomalies are linked to variable combinations of freshwater pulses, low total solar irradiance, explosive and effusive volcanism, and internal modes of climate variability, with cooling likely sustained by ocean/sea-ice feedbacks. The climate evolution reflected by our glacial and organic proxy records corresponds closely to marine records from the North Iceland Shelf.

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyons, J.; Stewart, J.S.; Mitro, M.

2010-01-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56.0-93.5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1?? C and water 0.8?? C), moderate warming (air 3?? C and water 2.4?? C) and major warming (air 5?? C and water 4?? C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology ?? 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Linking Teleconnections and Iowa's Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowe, S. T.; Villarini, G.; Lavers, D. A.; Scoccimarro, E.

2013-12-01

In recent years Iowa and the U.S. Midwest has experienced both extreme drought and flood periods. With a drought in 2012 bounded by major floods in 2011 and 2013, the rapid progression from one extreme to the next is on the forefront of the public mind. Given that Iowa is a major agricultural state, extreme weather conditions can have severe socioeconomic consequences. In this research we investigate the large-scale climate processes that occurred concurrently and before a range of dry/wet and cold/hot periods to improve process understanding of these events. It is essential to understand the large-scale climate processes, as these can then provide valuable insight toward the development of long-term climate forecasts for Iowa. In this study monthly and seasonal surface temperature and precipitation over 1950-2012 across Iowa are used. Precipitation and surface temperature data are retrieved from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) Climate Group at Oregon State University. The large-scale atmospheric fields are obtained from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis 1 Project. Precipitation is stratified according to wet, normal, and dry conditions, while temperature according to hot, average, and cold periods. Different stratification criteria based on the precipitation and temperature distributions are examined. Mean sea-level pressure and sea-surface temperature composite maps for the northern hemisphere are then produced for the wet/dry conditions, and cold/hot conditions. Further analyses include correlation, anomalies, and assessment of large-scale planetary wave activity, shedding light on the differences and similarities among the opposite weather conditions. The results of this work will highlight regional weather patterns that are related to the climate over Iowa, providing valuable insight into the mechanisms controlling the occurrence of potentially extreme weather conditions over this area.

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Jana S.; Lyons, John D.; Matt Mitro,

2010-01-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0–93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin.

40 CFR 1066.710 - Cold temperature testing procedures for measuring CO and NMHC emissions and determining fuel...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... climate control system with the heat on and set to primarily defrost the front window. Turn air.... (i) Prior to the first acceleration, 20 seconds after the start of the UDDS, set the climate control... climate control system): (A) Temperature. Set controls to maximum heat. (B) Fan speed. Set the fan speed...

Incorporating climate change into pest risk models for forest pathogens: a role for cold stress in an era of global warming?

Treesearch

Robert C. Venette

2013-01-01

Climate change may alter the distribution and activity of native and alien pathogens that infect trees and, in severe cases, cause tree death. In this study, potential future changes in climate suitability are investigated for three forest pathogens that occur in western North America: the native Arceuthobium tsugense subsp tsugense...

Slow climate velocities of mountain streams portend their role as refugia for cold-water biodiversity

Treesearch

Daniel J. Isaak; Michael K. Young; Charlie Luce; Steven W. Hostetler; Seth J. Wenger; Erin E. Peterson; Jay M. Ver Hoef; Matthew C. Groce; Dona L. Horan; David E. Nagel

2016-01-01

The imminent demise of montane species is a recurrent theme in the climate change literature, particularly for aquatic species that are constrained to networks and elevational rather than latitudinal retreat as temperatures increase. Predictions of widespread species losses, however, have yet to be fulfilled despite decades of climate change, suggesting that trends are...

Attributing Changing Rates of Temperature Record Breaking to Anthropogenic Influences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Andrew D.

2017-11-01

Record-breaking temperatures attract attention from the media, so understanding how and why the rate of record breaking is changing may be useful in communicating the effects of climate change. A simple methodology designed for estimating the anthropogenic influence on rates of record breaking in a given time series is proposed here. The frequency of hot and cold record-breaking temperature occurrences is shown to be changing due to the anthropogenic influence on the climate. Using ensembles of model simulations with and without human-induced forcings, it is demonstrated that the effect of climate change on global record-breaking temperatures can be detected as far back as the 1930s. On local scales, a climate change signal is detected more recently at most locations. The anthropogenic influence on the increased occurrence of hot record-breaking temperatures is clearer than it is for the decreased occurrence of cold records. The approach proposed here could be applied in rapid attribution studies of record extremes to quantify the influence of climate change on the rate of record breaking in addition to the climate anomaly being studied. This application is demonstrated for the global temperature record of 2016 and the Central England temperature record in 2014.

Evolutionary divergence of mitochondrial genomes in two Tetranychus species distributed across different climates.

PubMed

Sun, J-T; Jin, P-Y; Hoffmann, A A; Duan, X-Z; Dai, J; Hu, G; Xue, X-F; Hong, X-Y

2018-05-24

There is increasing evidence that mitochondrial genomes (mitogenomes) can be under selection, whereas the selective regimes shaping mitogenome evolution remain largely unclear. To test for mitochondrial genome evolution in relation to the climate adaptation, we explored mtDNA variation in two spider mite (Tetranychus) species, which distribute across different climates. We sequenced 26 complete mitogenomes of T. truncatus which occurs in both warm and cold regions, and 9 complete mitogenomes of T. pueraricola which is only restricted in warm regions. Patterns of evolution in the two species mitogenomes were compared through a series of d N /d S methods and physicochemical profiles of amino acid replacements. We found that (1) the mitogenomes of both species were under widespread purifying selection. (2) Elevated directional adaptive selection was observed in the T. truncatus mitogenome, perhaps linked to the cold climates adaptation of T. truncatus. (3) The strength of selection varied across genes, and diversifying positive selection detected on ND4 and ATP6 pointed to their crucial roles during adaptation to different climatic conditions. This study gained insight into the mitogenome evolution in relation to the climate adaptation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 The Royal Entomological Society.

Optimization for energy efficiency of underground building envelope thermal performance in different climate zones of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Luyang; Liu, Jing; Zhang, Huibo

2017-11-01

The object of this article is to investigate the influence of thermal performance of envelopes in shallow-buried buildings on energy consumption for different climate zones of China. For the purpose of this study, an effective building energy simulation tool (DeST) developed by Tsinghua University was chosen to model the heat transfer in underground buildings. Based on the simulative results, energy consumption for heating and cooling for the whole year was obtained. The results showed that the relationship between energy consumption and U-value of envelopes for underground buildings is different compared with above-ground buildings: improving thermal performance of exterior walls cannot reduce energy consumption, on the contrary, may result in more energy cost. Besides, it is can be derived that optimized U-values of underground building envelopes vary with climate zones of China in this study. For severe cold climate zone, the optimized U-value of underground building envelopes is 0.8W/(m2·K); for cold climate zone, the optimized U-value is 1.5W/(m2·K); for warm climate zone, the U-value is 2.0W/(m2·K).

Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump (CCHP) w/Variable Speed Technology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Messmer, Craig S.

2016-09-30

This report summarizes the results of a three year program awarded to Unico, Inc. to commercialize a residential cold climate heat pump. Several designs were investigated. Compressors were selected using analysis from Oakridge National Laboratories followed by prototype construction and lab testing in a specially built environmental chamber capable of reaching -30°F. The initial design utilized two variable speed compressors in series with very good capacity results and acceptable efficiency at very cold temperatures. The design was then modified to reduce cost and complexity by redesigning the system using three dual-stage compressors: two in parallel followed by one in series.more » Extensive testing found significant challenge with oil management, reliability, weight and cost which prevented the system from being fully commercialized. Further analysis of other conceptual designs indicated that these challenges could be overcome in the future.« less

Characterizing convective cold pools: Characterizing Convective Cold Pools

DOE PAGES

Drager, Aryeh J.; van den Heever, Susan C.

2017-05-09

Cold pools produced by convective storms play an important role in Earth's climate system. However, a common framework does not exist for objectively identifying convective cold pools in observations and models. The present study investigates convective cold pools within a simulation of tropical continental convection that uses a cloud-resolving model with a coupled land-surface model. Multiple variables are assessed for their potential in identifying convective cold pool boundaries, and a novel technique is developed and tested for identifying and tracking cold pools in numerical model simulations. This algorithm is based on surface rainfall rates and radial gradients in the densitymore » potential temperature field. The algorithm successfully identifies near-surface cold pool boundaries and is able to distinguish between connected cold pools. Once cold pools have been identified and tracked, composites of cold pool evolution are then constructed, and average cold pool properties are investigated. Wet patches are found to develop within the centers of cold pools where the ground has been soaked with rainwater. These wet patches help to maintain cool surface temperatures and reduce cold pool dissipation, which has implications for the development of subsequent convection.« less

Characterizing convective cold pools: Characterizing Convective Cold Pools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drager, Aryeh J.; van den Heever, Susan C.

Cold pools produced by convective storms play an important role in Earth's climate system. However, a common framework does not exist for objectively identifying convective cold pools in observations and models. The present study investigates convective cold pools within a simulation of tropical continental convection that uses a cloud-resolving model with a coupled land-surface model. Multiple variables are assessed for their potential in identifying convective cold pool boundaries, and a novel technique is developed and tested for identifying and tracking cold pools in numerical model simulations. This algorithm is based on surface rainfall rates and radial gradients in the densitymore » potential temperature field. The algorithm successfully identifies near-surface cold pool boundaries and is able to distinguish between connected cold pools. Once cold pools have been identified and tracked, composites of cold pool evolution are then constructed, and average cold pool properties are investigated. Wet patches are found to develop within the centers of cold pools where the ground has been soaked with rainwater. These wet patches help to maintain cool surface temperatures and reduce cold pool dissipation, which has implications for the development of subsequent convection.« less

Late Noachian Climate Of Mars: Constraints From Valley Network System Formation Times And The Intermittencies (Episodic/Periodic And Punctuated).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, James

2017-04-01

Formation of Late Noachian-Early Hesperian (LN-EH) valley network systems (VNS) signaled the presence of warm/wet conditions generating several hypotheses for climates permissive of these conditions. To constrain options for the ambient Noachian climate, we examine estimates for time required to carve channels/deltas and total duration implied by plausible intermittencies. Formation Times for VN, OBL, Deltas, Fans: A synthesis of required timescales show that even with the longest estimated continuous duration of VN formation/intermittencies, total time to carve the VN does not exceed 106 years, <˜0.25% of the total Noachian. Intermittency/episodicity assumptions are climate-model dependent (e.g., most workers use Earth-like fluvial activity and intermittency). Noachian-Early Hesperian Climate Models: 1) Warm and wet/semiarid/arid climate: Sustained background MAT >273 K, hydrological system vertically integrated, and rainfall occurs to recharge the aquifer. Two subtypes: a) "Rainfall/Fluvial Erosion-Dominated Warm and Wet Model": "Rainfall and surface runoff" persist throughout Noachian to explain crater degradation, and a LN-EH short rapidly ending terminal epoch. b) "Recharge Evaporation/Evaporite Dominated Warm and Wet Model": Sustained period of equatorial/mid-latitude precipitation and a vertically integrated hydrological system driven by evaporative upwelling and fluctuating shallow water table playa environments account for sulfate evaporate environments at Meridiani Planum. Sustained temperatures >273 K are required for extended periods (107-108 years). 2) Cold and icy climate: Sustained background temperatures extremely low (MAT ˜225 K), cryosphere is globally continuous, hydrological system is horizontally stratified, separating groundwater system from surface; no combination of spin-axis/orbital perturbations can raise MAT to 273 K. Adiabatic cooling effects transfer water to high altitudes, leading to "Late Noachian Icy Highlands Model". VNS cannot form in this nominal climate environment without special circumstances (e.g., impacts or volcanic eruptions elevate of temperatures by >˜50 K to induce melting and fluvial/lacustrine activity). 3) Cold and Icy climate warmed by greenhouse gases: The climate is sustained cold/icy model, but greenhouse gases of unspecified nature/amount/duration elevate MAT by several tens of Kelvins (say 25 K, to MAT 250 K), bringing annual temperature range into the realm where peak seasonal temperatures (PST) exceed 273 K. In this climate environment, analogous to the Antarctic Dry Valleys, seasonal summer temperatures above 273 K are sufficient to melt snow/ice and form fluvial and lacustrine features, but MAT is well below 273 K (253 K). Fluvial systems driven by episodic/periodic intermittency typically involve short intermittency time-scales (10-106 years) but require a warm climate (MAT >273 K) to be sustained for >0.4 x 109 years. Fluvial systems driven by punctuated intermittency typically involve short duration time-scales (10-105 years) but only require a warm climate (MAT >273 K) for the very short duration of the climatic impact of the punctuated event (102-105 years). We conclude that a cold and icy background climate with punctuated intermittency of warming and melting events is consistent with: 1) the estimated durations of continuous VN formation (<105 years) and 2) VN system estimated recurrence rates (106-107 years).

The effect of time of day on cold water ingestion by high-level swimmers in a tropical climate.

PubMed

Hue, Olivier; Monjo, Roland; Lazzaro, Marc; Baillot, Michelle; Hellard, Philippe; Marlin, Laurent; Jean-Etienne, A

2013-07-01

The authors tested the effect of cold water ingestion during high-intensity training in the morning vs the evening on both core temperature (TC) and thermal perceptions of internationally ranked long-distance swimmers during a training period in a tropical climate. Nine internationally ranked long-distance swimmers (5 men and 4 women) performed 4 randomized training sessions (2 in the evening and 2 in the morning) with 2 randomized beverages with different temperatures for 3 consecutive days. After a standardized warm-up of 1000 m, the subjects performed a standardized training session that consisted of 10 x 100 m (start every 1'20″) at a fixed velocity. The swimmers were then followed for the next 3000 m of the training schedule. Heart rate (HR) was continuously monitored during the 10 x 100 m, whereas TC, thermal comfort, and thermal sensation (TS) were measured before and after each 1000-m session. Before and after each 1000 m, the swimmers were asked to drink 190 mL of neutral (26.5 ± 2.5°C) or cold (1.3 ± 0.3°C) water packaged in standardized bottles. Results demonstrated that cold water ingestion induced a significant effect on TC, with a pronounced decrease in the evening, resulting in significantly lower mean TC and lower mean delta TC in evening cold (EC) than in evening neutral (EN), concomitant with significantly lower TS in EC than in EN and a significant effect on exercise HR. Moreover, although TC increased significantly with time in MN, MC, and EN, TC was stabilized during exercise in EC. To conclude, we demonstrate that a cold beverage had a significant effect on TC, TS, and HR during training in high-level swimmers in a tropical climate, especially during evening training.

Cold air drainage flows subsidize montane valley ecosystem productivity.

PubMed

Novick, Kimberly A; Oishi, A Christopher; Miniat, Chelcy Ford

2016-12-01

In mountainous areas, cold air drainage from high to low elevations has pronounced effects on local temperature, which is a critical driver of many ecosystem processes, including carbon uptake and storage. Here, we leverage new approaches for interpreting ecosystem carbon flux observations in complex terrain to quantify the links between macro-climate condition, drainage flows, local microclimate, and ecosystem carbon cycling in a southern Appalachian valley. Data from multiple long-running climate stations and multiple eddy covariance flux towers are combined with simple models for ecosystem carbon fluxes. We show that cold air drainage into the valley suppresses local temperature by several degrees at night and for several hours before and after sunset, leading to reductions in growing season respiration on the order of ~8%. As a result, we estimate that drainage flows increase growing season and annual net carbon uptake in the valley by >10% and >15%, respectively, via effects on microclimate that are not be adequately represented in regional- and global-scale terrestrial ecosystem models. Analyses driven by chamber-based estimates of soil and plant respiration reveal cold air drainage effects on ecosystem respiration are dominated by reductions to the respiration of aboveground biomass. We further show that cold air drainage proceeds more readily when cloud cover and humidity are low, resulting in the greatest enhancements to net carbon uptake in the valley under clear, cloud-free (i.e., drought-like) conditions. This is a counterintuitive result that is neither observed nor predicted outside of the valley, where nocturnal temperature and respiration increase during dry periods. This result should motivate efforts to explore how topographic flows may buffer eco-physiological processes from macroscale climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Understanding the effect of an excessive cold tongue bias on projecting the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ying, Jun; Huang, Ping; Lian, Tao; Tan, Hongjian

2018-05-01

An excessive cold tongue is a common bias among current climate models, and considered an important source of bias in projections of tropical Pacific climate change under global warming. Specifically, the excessive cold tongue bias is closely related to the tropical Pacific SST warming (TPSW) pattern. In this study, we reveal that two processes are the critical mechanisms by which the excessive cold tongue bias influences the projection of the TPSW pattern, based on 32 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP5). On the one hand, by assuming that the shortwave (SW) radiation to SST feedback is linearly correlated to the cold tongue SST, the excessive cold tongue bias can induce an overly weak negative SW-SST feedback in the central Pacific, which can lead to a positive SST warming bias in the central to western Pacific (around 150°E-140°W). Moreover, the overly weak local atmospheric dynamics response to SST is a key process of the overly weak SW-SST feedback, compared with the cloud response to atmospheric dynamics and the SW radiation response to cloud. On the other hand, the overly strong ocean zonal overturning circulation associated with the excessive cold tongue bias results in an overestimation of the ocean dynamical thermostat effect, with enhanced ocean stratification under global warming, leading to a negative SST warming bias in the central and eastern Pacific (around 170°W-120°W). These two processes jointly form a positive SST warming bias in the western Pacific, contributing to a La Niña-like warming bias. Therefore, we suggest a more realistic climatological cold tongue SST is needed for a more reliable projection of the TPSW pattern.

Weather, Climate, and You.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blai, Boris, Jr.

Information from the American Institute of Medical Climatologists on human responses to weather and climatic conditions, including clouds, winds, humidity, barometric pressure, heat, cold, and other variables that may exert a pervasive impact on health, behavior, disposition, and the level of efficiency with which individuals function is reviewed.…

OIL SPILL RESPONSE SCENARIOS FOR REMOTE ARCTIC ENVIRONMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Special problems occur during oil spill cleanup in remote inland areas in cold climates. In Alaska these problems result from the harsh climate, the unusual terrain features, and the special problems of spills along swift rivers. The analysis begins with a description of the envi...

Cold truths: how winter drives responses of terrestrial organisms to climate change.

PubMed

Williams, Caroline M; Henry, Hugh A L; Sinclair, Brent J

2015-02-01

Winter is a key driver of individual performance, community composition, and ecological interactions in terrestrial habitats. Although climate change research tends to focus on performance in the growing season, climate change is also modifying winter conditions rapidly. Changes to winter temperatures, the variability of winter conditions, and winter snow cover can interact to induce cold injury, alter energy and water balance, advance or retard phenology, and modify community interactions. Species vary in their susceptibility to these winter drivers, hampering efforts to predict biological responses to climate change. Existing frameworks for predicting the impacts of climate change do not incorporate the complexity of organismal responses to winter. Here, we synthesise organismal responses to winter climate change, and use this synthesis to build a framework to predict exposure and sensitivity to negative impacts. This framework can be used to estimate the vulnerability of species to winter climate change. We describe the importance of relationships between winter conditions and performance during the growing season in determining fitness, and demonstrate how summer and winter processes are linked. Incorporating winter into current models will require concerted effort from theoreticians and empiricists, and the expansion of current growing-season studies to incorporate winter. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Cold-water refuges for climate resilience in Oregon coastal ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Many rivers and streams in the Pacific Northwest are currently listed as impaired under the Clean Water Act as a result of high summer water temperatures. Adverse effects of warm waters include impacts to salmon and steelhead populations that may already be stressed by habitat alteration, disease, predation, and fishing pressures. Thermal refuges may help mitigate the effects of increasing temperatures. In this presentation, we define cold-water refuges as areas buffered from regional climate effects by groundwater, physical habitat heterogeneity, or other watershed attributes. Processes forming these features include groundwater-surface water interactions, and hyporheic exchange at a range of spatial and temporal scales. Patterns associated with these processes may provide useful indicators for mapping and predicting the locations and extent of these features. Fish may congregate at high densities within cold-water refuges during critical periods of thermal stress, but there may be trade-offs associated with refuge use including predation, disease risk, and reduced foraging opportunities. These factors all contribute to determining refuge effectiveness. Watershed management and restoration strategies could consider these features and their potential utility to cold-water fish, and we conclude with examples of types of watershed restoration actions that might help foster cold-water refuge creation and maintenance.M Many rivers and streams in the Pacific Nort

Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

2009-04-01

Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model RegCM3 (run at 10 km horizontal resolution) was developed by Giorgi et al. and it is available from the ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics). Analysis of the simulated daily temperature datasets suggests that the detected regional warming is expected to continue in the 21st century. Cold temperature extremes are projected to decrease while warm extremes tend to increase significantly. Expected changes of annual precipitation indices are small, but generally consistent with the detected trends of the 20th century. Based on the simulations, extreme precipitation events are expected to become more intense and more frequent in winter, while a general decrease of extreme precipitation indices is expected in summer.

Changing Susceptibility to Non-Optimum Temperatures in Japan, 1972-2012: The Role of Climate, Demographic, and Socioeconomic Factors.

PubMed

Chung, Yeonseung; Yang, Daewon; Gasparrini, Antonio; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Fook Sheng Ng, Chris; Kim, Yoonhee; Honda, Yasushi; Hashizume, Masahiro

2018-05-02

Previous studies have shown that population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures has changed over time, but little is known about the related time-varying factors that underlie the changes. Our objective was to investigate the changing population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures in 47 prefectures of Japan over four decades from 1972 to 2012, addressing three aspects: minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and heat- and cold-related mortality risks. In addition, we aimed to examine how these aspects of susceptibility were associated with climate, demographic, and socioeconomic variables. We first used a two-stage time-series design with a time-varying distributed lag nonlinear model and multivariate meta-analysis to estimate the time-varying MMT, heat- and cold-related mortality risks. We then applied linear mixed effects models to investigate the association between each of the three time-varying aspects of susceptibility and various time-varying factors. MMT increased from 23.2 [95% confidence interval (CI): 23, 23.6] to 28.7 (27.0, 29.7) °C. Heat-related mortality risk [relative risk (RR) for the 99th percentile of temperature vs. the MMT] decreased from 1.18 (1.15, 1.21) to 1.01 (0.98, 1.04). Cold-related mortality risk (RR for the first percentile vs. the MMT) generally decreased from 1.48 (1.41, 1.54) to 1.35 (1.32, 1.40), with the exception of a few eastern prefectures that showed increased risk. The changing patterns in all three aspects differed by region, sex, and causes of death. Higher mean temperature was associated ( p <0.01) with lower heat risk, whereas higher humidity was associated with higher cold risk. A higher percentage of elderly people was associated with a higher cold risk, whereas higher economic strength of the prefecture was related to lower cold risk. Population susceptibility to heat has decreased over the last four decades in Japan. Susceptibility to cold has decreased overall except for several eastern prefectures where it has either increased or remained unchanged. Certain climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors explored in the current study might underlie this changing susceptibility. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2546.

Summary of results of January climate simulations with the GISS coarse-mesh model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Cohen, C.; Wu, P.

1981-01-01

The large scale climates generated by extended runs of the model are relatively independent of the initial atmospheric conditions, if the first few months of each simulation are discarded. The perpetual January simulations with a specified SST field produced excessive snow accumulation over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. Mass exchanges between the cold (warm) continents and the warm (cold) adjacent oceans produced significant surface pressure changes over the oceans as well as over the land. The effect of terrain and terrain elevation on the amount of precipitation was examined. The evaporation of continental moisture was calculated to cause large increases in precipitation over the continents.

Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century based on documentary evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camenisch, C.

2015-08-01

This paper applies the methods of historical climatology to present a climate reconstruction for the area of the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century. The results are based on documentary evidence that has been handled very carefully, especially with regard to the distinction between contemporary and non-contemporary sources. Approximately 3000 written records derived from about 100 different sources were examined and converted into seasonal seven-degree indices for temperature and precipitation. For the Late Middle Ages only a few climate reconstructions exist. There are even fewer reconstructions which include spring and autumn temperature or any precipitation information at all. This paper therefore constitutes a useful contribution to the understanding of climate and weather conditions in the less well researched but highly interesting 15th century. The extremely cold winter temperatures during the 1430s and an extremely cold winter in 1407/1408 are striking. Moreover, no other year in this century was as hot and dry as 1473. At the beginning and the end of the 1480s and at the beginning of the 1490s summers were considerably wetter than average.

Identifying Meteorological Controls on Open and Closed Mesoscale Cellular Convection as Associated with Marine Cold Air Outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCoy, Isabel; Wood, Robert; Fletcher, Jennifer

Marine low clouds are key influencers of the climate and contribute significantly to uncertainty in model climate sensitivity due to their small scale and complex processes. Many low clouds occur in large-scale cellular patterns, known as open and closed mesoscale cellular convection (MCC), which have significantly different radiative and microphysical properties. Investigating MCC development and meteorological controls will improve our understanding of their impacts on the climate. We conducted an examination of time-varying meteorological conditions associated with satellite-determined open and closed MCC. The spatial and temporal patterns of MCC clouds were compared with key meteorological control variables calculated from ERA-Interim Reanalysis to highlight dependencies and major differences. This illustrated the influence of environmental stability and surface forcing as well as the role of marine cold air outbreaks (MCAO, the movement of cold air from polar-regions across warmer waters) in MCC cloud formation. Such outbreaks are important to open MCC development and may also influence the transition from open to closed MCC. Our results may lead to improvements in the parameterization of cloudiness and advance the simulation of marine low clouds. National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Grant (DGE-1256082).

Cow, sheep and llama manure at psychrophilic anaerobic co-digestion with low cost tubular digesters in cold climate and high altitude.

PubMed

Martí-Herrero, J; Alvarez, R; Cespedes, R; Rojas, M R; Conde, V; Aliaga, L; Balboa, M; Danov, S

2015-04-01

The aim of this research is to evaluate the co-digestion of cow and llama manure combined with sheep manure, in psychrophilic conditions and real field low cost tubular digesters adapted to cold climate. Four digesters were monitored in cold climate conditions; one fed with cow manure, a second one with llama manure, the third one with co-digestion of cow-sheep manure and the fourth one was fed with llama-sheep manure. The slurry had a mean temperature of 16.6 °C, the organic load rate was 0.44 kgvs m(-3) d(-1) and the hydraulic retention time was 80 days. After one hundred days biogas production was stable, as was the methane content and the pH of the effluent. The co-digestion of cow-sheep manure results in a biogas production increase of 100% compared to the mono-digestion of cow manure, while co-digestion of llama-sheep manure results in a decrease of 50% in biogas production with respect to mono-digestion of llama manure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temperature-Dependent Development, Cold Tolerance, and Potential Distribution of Cricotopus lebetis (Diptera: Chironomidae), a Tip Miner of Hydrilla verticillata (Hydrocharitaceae)

PubMed Central

Stratman, Karen N.; Overholt, William A.; Cuda, James P.; Mukherjee, A.; Diaz, R.; Netherland, Michael D.; Wilson, Patrick C.

2014-01-01

Abstract A chironomid midge, Cricotopus lebetis (Sublette) (Diptera: Chironomidae), was discovered attacking the apical meristems of Hydrilla verticillata (L.f. Royle) in Crystal River, Citrus Co., Florida in 1992. The larvae mine the stems of H. verticillata and cause basal branching and stunting of the plant. Temperature-dependent development, cold tolerance, and the potential distribution of the midge were investigated. The results of the temperature-dependent development study showed that optimal temperatures for larval development were between 20 and 30°C, and these data were used to construct a map of the potential number of generations per year of C. lebetis in Florida. Data from the cold tolerance study, in conjunction with historical weather data, were used to generate a predicted distribution of C. lebetis in the United States. A distribution was also predicted using an ecological niche modeling approach by characterizing the climate at locations where C. lebetis is known to occur and then finding other locations with similar climate. The distributions predicted using the two modeling approaches were not significantly different and suggested that much of the southeastern United States was climatically suitable for C. lebetis . PMID:25347841

Climate and environmental changes during the past millennium in central western Guizhou, China as recorded by Stalagmite ZJD-21

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Tz-Shing; Liu, Zi-Qi; Li, Hong-Chun; Wan, Nai-Jung; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Ku, Teh-Lung

2011-04-01

Stalagmite ZJD-21 (12.3-cm long) was collected from Zhijin Cave in Zhijin County, Guizhou, China. Its 210Pb profile and seven 230Th/ 234U dates indicate that the stalagmite has grown continuously for the past 1100 years. The δ18O record of ZJD-21 indicates that δ18O in the stalagmite was mainly influenced by rainfall amount and/or summer/winter rain ratio, with lighter values corresponding to wetter climatic conditions and/or more summer monsoonal rains. The ZJD-21 δ18O record suggests: (1) dry/warm climates during AD 950-1100 (overlapping with most of the Medieval Warm Period, MWP, in Europe); (2) strengthening of the summer monsoon from the MWP toward the beginning of the Little Ice Age (LIA) at AD 1250; (3) relatively wet/cold conditions occurred between AD 1250 and 1500, shown by relatively light δ18O values; (4) the summer monsoon intensity strongly declined referred by the increase δ18O trend from AD 1500 to AD 1600, perhaps resulting in dry/cold conditions; and (5) a strongly enhancement of the summer monsoon intensity appeared from AD 1700 to 1950, reflecting wet/cold conditions during the late period of the LIA. On decadal scales the monsoonal climate of central western Guizhou can be either warm/wet and cold/dry, or warm/dry and cold/wet. The δ13C variations in ZJD-21 on decadal-to-centennial scales respond mainly to vegetation changes with heavier values reflecting lesser amount of forest coverage. Prior to AD 1700, the δ13C generally co-varied with δ18O reflecting the expected more extensive vegetation growth (lighter δ13C) under wetter climate (lighter δ18O). However, during the past 300 years the δ13C increased sharply showing an opposite trend to that of δ18O. This observation strongly suggests that a decline of surface vegetation due to an artificial deforestation might have occurred - an occurrence coincident with the large-scale immigration into central western Guizhou in connection with copper-mining activities during the reign of Emperor Yongzheng of Qing Dynasty. Since the late 1890s, especially in the past 50 years, population surge has led to serious karst rocky desertification in the area.

Nasal airflow simulations suggest convergent adaptation in Neanderthals and modern humans.

PubMed

de Azevedo, S; González, M F; Cintas, C; Ramallo, V; Quinto-Sánchez, M; Márquez, F; Hünemeier, T; Paschetta, C; Ruderman, A; Navarro, P; Pazos, B A; Silva de Cerqueira, C C; Velan, O; Ramírez-Rozzi, F; Calvo, N; Castro, H G; Paz, R R; González-José, R

2017-11-21

Both modern humans (MHs) and Neanderthals successfully settled across western Eurasian cold-climate landscapes. Among the many adaptations considered as essential to survival in such landscapes, changes in the nasal morphology and/or function aimed to humidify and warm the air before it reaches the lungs are of key importance. Unfortunately, the lack of soft-tissue evidence in the fossil record turns difficult any comparative study of respiratory performance. Here, we reconstruct the internal nasal cavity of a Neanderthal plus two representatives of climatically divergent MH populations (southwestern Europeans and northeastern Asians). The reconstruction includes mucosa distribution enabling a realistic simulation of the breathing cycle in different climatic conditions via computational fluid dynamics. Striking across-specimens differences in fluid residence times affecting humidification and warming performance at the anterior tract were found under cold/dry climate simulations. Specifically, the Asian model achieves a rapid air conditioning, followed by the Neanderthals, whereas the European model attains a proper conditioning only around the medium-posterior tract. In addition, quantitative-genetic evolutionary analyses of nasal morphology provided signals of stabilizing selection for MH populations, with the removal of Arctic populations turning covariation patterns compatible with evolution by genetic drift. Both results indicate that, departing from important craniofacial differences existing among Neanderthals and MHs, an advantageous species-specific respiratory performance in cold climates may have occurred in both species. Fluid dynamics and evolutionary biology independently provided evidence of nasal evolution, suggesting that adaptive explanations regarding complex functional phenotypes require interdisciplinary approaches aimed to quantify both performance and evolutionary signals on covariation patterns.

Ocean Drilling Program Records of the Last Five Million Years: A View of the Ocean and Climate System During a Warm Period and a Major Climate Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravelo, A. C.

2003-12-01

The warm Pliocene (4.7 to 3.0 Ma), the most recent period in Earth's history when global equilibrium climate was warmer than today, provides the opportunity to understand what role the components of the climate system that have a long timescale of response (cryosphere and ocean) play in determining globally warm conditions, and in forcing the major global climate cooling after 3.0 Ma. Because sediments of this age are well preserved in many locations in the world's oceans, we can potentially study this warm period in detail. One major accomplishment of the Ocean Drilling Program is the recovery of long continuous sediment sequences from all ocean basins that span the last 5.0 Ma. Dozens of paleoceanographers have generated climate records from these sediments. I will present a synthesis of these data to provide a global picture of the Pliocene warm period, the transition to the cold Pleistocene period, and changes in climate sensitivity related to this transition. In the Pliocene warm period, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and global climate patterns suggest average conditions that resemble modern El Ni¤os, and deep ocean reconstructions indicate enhanced thermohaline overturning and reduced density and nutrient stratification. The data indicate that the warm conditions were not related to tectonic changes in ocean basin shape compared to today, rather they reflect the long term adjustment of the climate system to stronger than modern radiative forcing. The warm Pliocene to cold Pleistocene transition provides an opportunity to study the feedbacks of various components of the climate system. The marked onset of significant Northern hemisphere glaciation (NHG) at 2.75 Ma occurred in concert with a reduction in deep ocean ventilation, but cooling in subtropical and tropical regions was more gradual until Walker circulation was established in a major step at 2.0 Ma. Thus, regional high latitude ice albedo feedbacks, rather than low latitude processes, must have been primarily responsible for NHG at 2.75 Ma. And, regional air-sea feedbacks in the tropics, rather than ice sheet expansion, must have been primarily responsible for the marked increase in Walker circulation at 2.0 Ma. Finally, the detailed timing of events from different regions suggests that a tectonic `threshold' cannot explain the warm to cold climate transition. Studies of the last 5.0 Ma can also be used to understand how climate responds to changes in the Earth's radiative budget because seasonal and latitudinal variations in solar forcing are extremely well known, and many of the records that have been generated have the resolution and age control appropriate for the study of the climate response to these variations (Milankovitch cycles). In particular, how feedbacks operate when the mean climate state is warm versus cold can be studied. There is clear evidence that the amplitude of the climate response to solar forcing depends on the background mean state. In other words, the sensitivity of the climate to small perturbations in solar forcing has changed with time, and the balance of evidence indicates that tropical conditions, not high latitude conditions (such as ice sheet size) control this sensitivity. In sum, the Ocean Drilling Program has provided scientists with a window into the Pliocene warm period, and an opportunity to understand the workings of the ocean-climate system

Nordic Winter and Cold: Their Correspondence with Tomas Tranströmer's Poetry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hosian, Mohammad Akbar

2015-01-01

The Nobel Prize winning poet Tomas Tranströmer was born and bred in Sweden, a remarkably Scandinavian country. Topographically, Scandinavian countries are locations of extreme cold and snowing. This distinguishing climatic condition has had a dominant influence and impact on almost all Scandinavian art and literature, including Tomas Tranströmer's…

Population-level thermal performance of a cold-water ectotherm is linked to ontogeny and local environmental heterogeneity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hossack, Blake R.; Corn, P. Stephen; , Winsor H. Lowe; , Molly A. H. Webb; , Mariah J. Talbott; , Kevin M. Kappenman

2013-01-01

5. Our experiments with a cold-water species show that population-level performance varies across small geographic scales and is linked to local environmental heterogeneity. This variation could influence the rate and mode of species-level responses to climate change, both by facilitating local persistence in the face of change

Tolerance of subzero winter cold in kudzu (Pueraria montana var. lobata) and its implications for northward migration in a warming climate

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Kudzu (Pueraria montana var. lobata) is an important invasive species that was planted throughout southeastern North America until the mid-20th century. Winter survival is commonly assumed to control its distribution; however, its cold tolerance thresholds have not been determined. Here, we used bio...

Lubricants for Hydraulic Structures

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-08-01

significant difference is the fact that paraffinics provide a higher pour point. Although this is of little con- cern in warm climates , it could be...significant in very cold climates . 194. Lubricating oils may be either paraffinic or naphthenic depending on intended use, but there are no restrictions...geographical and climatic conditions, freedom to adjust to local conditions is recommended. 59 Table 1 Common Additives for Industrial Oils Rust

Tolerance to multiple climate stressors: a case study of Douglas-fir drought and cold hardiness

Treesearch

Sheel Bansal; Connie Harrington; Brad St. Clair

2016-01-01

1. Drought and freeze events are two of the most common forms of climate extremes which result in tree damage or death, and the frequency and intensity of both stressors may increase with climate change. Few studies have examined natural covariation in stress tolerance traits to cope with multiple stressors among wild plant populations. 2. We assessed the...

Noachian Climate of Mars: Insights from Noachian Stratigraphy and Valley Networks System Formation Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, J. W., III

2017-12-01

Noachian climate models have been proposed in order to account for 1) observed fluvial and lacustrine activity, 2) weathering processes producing phyllosilicates, and 3) an unusual impact record including three major impact basins and unusual degradation processes. We adopt a stratigraphic approach in order place these observations in a temporal context. Formation of the major impact basins Hellas, Isidis and Argyre in earlier Noachian profoundly influenced the uplands geology and appears to have occurred concurrently with major phyllosilicate and related surface occurrences/deposits; the immediate aftermath of these basins appears to have created a temporary hot and wet surface environment with significant effect on surface morphology and alteration processes. Formation of Late Noachian-Early Hesperian valley network systems (VNS) signaled the presence of warm/wet conditions generating several hypotheses for climates permissive of these conditions. We examined estimates for the time required to carve channels/deltas and total duration implied by plausible intermittencies. Synthesis of required timescales show that the total time to carve the VN does not exceed 106 years, < 0.25% of the total Noachian. What climate models can account for the VNS? 1) Warm and wet/semiarid/arid climate: Sustained background MAT >273 K, hydrological system vertically integrated, and rainfall occurs to recharge the aquifer. 2) Cold and Icy climate warmed by greenhouse gases or episodic stochastic events: Climate is sustained cold/icy, but greenhouse gases of unspecified nature/amount/duration elevate MAT by several tens of Kelvins, bringing the annual temperature range into the realm where peak seasonal temperatures (PST) exceed 273 K. In this climate environment, analogous to the Antarctic Dry Valleys, seasonal summer temperatures above 273 K are sufficient to melt snow/ice and form fluvial and lacustrine features, but MAT is well below 273 K (253 K); punctuated warming alternatives include impacts or volcanic eruptions. We conclude that a cold and icy background climate with modest greenhouse warming or punctuated warming and melting events for the VNs origin is consistent with: 1) the estimated durations of continuous VN formation (<105 years) and 2) VN system estimated recurrence rates (106-107 years).

Cold-sensing regulates Drosophila growth through insulin-producing cells

PubMed Central

Li, Qiaoran; Gong, Zhefeng

2015-01-01

Across phyla, body size is linked to climate. For example, rearing fruit flies at lower temperatures results in bigger body sizes than those observed at higher temperatures. The underlying molecular basis of this effect is poorly understood. Here we provide evidence that the temperature-dependent regulation of Drosophila body size depends on a group of cold-sensing neurons and insulin-producing cells (IPCs). Electrically silencing IPCs completely abolishes the body size increase induced by cold temperature. IPCs are directly innervated by cold-sensing neurons. Stimulation of these cold-sensing neurons activates IPCs, promotes synthesis and secretion of Drosophila insulin-like peptides and induces a larger body size, mimicking the effects of rearing the flies in cold temperature. Taken together, these findings reveal a neuronal circuit that mediates the effects of low temperature on fly growth. PMID:26648410

Diving into Cold Pools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Heever, S. C.; Grant, L. D.; Drager, A. J.

2017-12-01

Cold pools play a significant role in convective storm initiation, organization and longevity. Given their role in convective life cycles, recent efforts have been focused on improving the representation of cold pool processes within weather forecast models, as well as on developing cold pool parameterizations in order to better represent their impacts within global climate models. Understanding the physical processes governing cold pool formation, intensity and dissipation is therefore critical to these efforts. Cold pool characteristics are influenced by numerous factors, including those associated with precipitation formation and evaporation, variations in the environmental moisture and shear, and land surface interactions. The focus of this talk will be on the manner in which the surface characteristics and associated processes impact cold pool genesis and dissipation. In particular, the results from high-resolution modeling studies focusing on the role of sensible and latent heat fluxes, soil moisture and SST will be presented. The results from a recent field campaign examining cold pools over northern Colorado will also be discussed.

Hydrologic responses of a tropical catchment in Thailand and two temperate/cold catchments in north America to global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gan, T.Y.; Ahmad, Z.

The hydrologic impact or sensitivities of three medium-sized catchments to global warming, one of tropical climate in Northern Thailand and two of temperate climate in the Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins of California, were investigated.

Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas of the United States

EPA Science Inventory

Projected mortality from climate change-driven impacts on extremely hot and cold days increases significantly over the 21st century in a large group of United States Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Increases in projected mortality from more hot days are greater than decreases in ...

Outdoor comfort of pedestrians in cities

Treesearch

Edward Arens; Donald Ballanti

1977-01-01

The outdoor comfort of pedestrians has been neglected by architects and planners because of difficulties in determining comfortable and uncomfortable climatic conditions and predicting the climatic characteristics of a planned urban site. Available information on comfort in a cold environment is summarized. The mechanical effects of wind on comfort are better...

How Can Conventional Drinking Water Treatment Facilities Build Resilience to Climate and Weather Induced Water Supply Variability?

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract: Water supplies are vulnerable to a host of climate- and weather-related stressors such as droughts, intense storms/flooding, snowpack depletion, sea level changes, and consequences from fires, landslides, and excessive heat or cold. Surface water resources (lakes, reser...

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based up...

Cold Climate Foundation Retrofit Experimental Hygrothermal Performance. Cloquet Residential Research Facility Laboratory Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldberg, Louise F.; Harmon, Anna C.

2015-04-09

This project was funded jointly by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). ORNL focused on developing a full basement wall system experimental database to enable others to validate hygrothermal simulation codes. NREL focused on testing the moisture durability of practical basement wall interior insulation retrofit solutions for cold climates. The project has produced a physically credible and reliable long-term hygrothermal performance database for retrofit foundation wall insulation systems in zone 6 and 7 climates that are fully compliant with the performance criteria in the 2009 Minnesota Energy Code. These data currently span the periodmore » from November 10, 2012 through May 31, 2014 and are anticipated to be extended through November 2014. The experimental data were configured into a standard format that can be published online and that is compatible with standard commercially available spreadsheet and database software.« less

Variability in winter climate and winter extremes reduces population growth of an alpine butterfly.

PubMed

Roland, Jens; Matter, Stephen F

2013-01-01

We examined the long-term, 15-year pattern of population change in a network of 21 Rocky Mountain populations of Parnassius smintheus butterflies in response to climatic variation. We found that winter values of the broadscale climate variable, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, were a strong predictor of annual population growth, much more so than were endogenous biotic factors related to population density. The relationship between PDO and population growth was nonlinear. Populations declined in years with extreme winter PDO values, when there were either extremely warm or extremely cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific relative to that in the western Pacific. Results suggest that more variable winters, and more frequent extremely cold or warm winters, will result in more frequent decline of these populations, a pattern exacerbated by the trend for increasingly variable winters seen over the past century.

Strategy Guideline: Energy Retrofits for Low-Rise Multifamily Buildings in Cold Climates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frozyna, K.; Badger, L.

2013-04-01

This Strategy Guideline explains the benefits of evaluating and identifying energy efficiency retrofit measures that could be made during renovation and maintenance of multifamily buildings. It focuses on low-rise multifamily structures (three or fewer stories) in a cold climate. These benefits lie primarily in reduced energy use, lower operating and maintenance costs, improved durability of the structure, and increased occupant comfort. This guideline focuses on retrofit measures for roof repair or replacement, exterior wall repair or gut rehab, and eating system maintenance. All buildings are assumed to have a flat ceiling and a trussed roof, wood- or steel-framed exterior walls,more » and one or more single or staged boilers. Estimated energy savings realized from the retrofits will vary, depending on the size and condition of the building, the extent of efficiency improvements, the efficiency of the heating equipment, the cost and type of fuel, and the climate location.« less

FishVis, A regional decision support tool for identifying vulnerabilities of riverine habitat and fishes to climate change in the Great Lakes Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Jana S.; Covert, S. Alex; Estes, Nick J.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Krueger, Damon; Wieferich, Daniel J.; Slattery, Michael T.; Lyons, John D.; McKenna, James E.; Infante, Dana M.; Bruce, Jennifer L.

2016-10-13

Climate change is expected to alter the distributions and community composition of stream fishes in the Great Lakes region in the 21st century, in part as a result of altered hydrological systems (stream temperature, streamflow, and habitat). Resource managers need information and tools to understand where fish species and stream habitats are expected to change under future conditions. Fish sample collections and environmental variables from multiple sources across the United States Great Lakes Basin were integrated and used to develop empirical models to predict fish species occurrence under present-day climate conditions. Random Forests models were used to predict the probability of occurrence of 13 lotic fish species within each stream reach in the study area. Downscaled climate data from general circulation models were integrated with the fish species occurrence models to project fish species occurrence under future climate conditions. The 13 fish species represented three ecological guilds associated with water temperature (cold, cool, and warm), and the species were distributed in streams across the Great Lakes region. Vulnerability (loss of species) and opportunity (gain of species) scores were calculated for all stream reaches by evaluating changes in fish species occurrence from present-day to future climate conditions. The 13 fish species included 4 cold-water species, 5 cool-water species, and 4 warm-water species. Presently, the 4 cold-water species occupy from 15 percent (55,000 kilometers [km]) to 35 percent (130,000 km) of the total stream length (369,215 km) across the study area; the 5 cool-water species, from 9 percent (33,000 km) to 58 percent (215,000 km); and the 4 warm-water species, from 9 percent (33,000 km) to 38 percent (141,000 km).Fish models linked to projections from 13 downscaled climate models projected that in the mid to late 21st century (2046–65 and 2081–2100, respectively) habitats suitable for all 4 cold-water species and 4 of 5 cool-water species under present-day conditions will decline as much as 86 percent and as little as 33 percent, and habitats suitable for all 4 warm-water species will increase as much as 33 percent and as little as 7 percent. This report documents the approach and data used to predict and project fish species occurrence under present-day and future climate conditions for 13 lotic fish species in the United States Great Lakes Basin. A Web-based decision support mapping application termed “FishVis” was developed to provide a means to integrate, visualize, query, and download the results of these projected climate-driven responses and help inform conservation planning efforts within the region.

Sedimentation in Lake Elgygytgyn, NE Russia, during the past 340.000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juschus, O.; Melles, M.; Wennrich, V.; Nowaczyk, N.; Brigham-Grette, J.; Minyuk, P.

2009-12-01

In spring 2009, an ICDP drilling operation on Lake Elgygytgyn, located in a 3.6 Myr old meteorite impact crater in NE Siberia, penetrated 312 m of lake sediments above a suevite layer and brecciated bedrock. In the uppermost ca. 140 m, the lake sediments according to on-site core descriptions and susceptibility measurements are comparable to those occurring in up to 16.0 m long sediment cores from the central lake part, which were recovered and investigated within the site survey for the drilling project. Assuming comparable sedimentation rates, the upper 80 m of the sediment record may represent the depositional history during the past ca. 3.0 Myr. This poster summarizes the results thus far available from the upper 16 m, in order to illustrate the potential the drilled upper lake sediment record has for reconstructing the environmental and climatic history of the terrestrial Arctic during the Quaternary. Besides two volcanic ash layers and a number of fine-grained turbidites, by far most of the sediments in the central part of Lake Elgygytgyn originate from fluvial and eolian input, and from the biological production in the lake. These pelagic sediments can be distinguished into four depositional units of contrasting lithological and biogeochemical composition, reflecting past environmental conditions associated with relatively warm, peak warm, cold and dry, and cold but more moist climate modes. A relatively warm climate, resulting in complete summer melt of the lake ice cover and seasonal mixing of the water column, prevailed during the Holocene and Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 3, 5.1 - 5.3, 6.1, 6.3, 6.5, 7.1 - 7.3, 7.5, 8.1, 8.3 and 9.1. MIS 5.5 (Eemian) and 9.5 were characterized by significantly enhanced aquatic primary production and organic matter supply from the catchment, indicating peak warm conditions. During MIS 2, 5.4, 6.2, 6.6, 8.2, 8.4, and 10 the climate was cold and dry, leading to perennial lake ice cover, little regional snowfall, and a stagnant water body. A cold but more moist climate during most of MIS 4, 6.4 and 7.4 is thought to have produced more snow cover on the perennial ice, strongly reducing light penetration and biogenic primary production in the lake. While the cold-warm pattern during the past three glacial-interglacial cycles is probably controlled by changes in regional summer insolation, differences in the intensity of the warm phases and in the degree of aridity (changing snowfall) during cold phases likely were due to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns.

Clay Mineralogy and Crystallinity as a Climatic Indicator: Evidence for Both Cold and Temperate Conditions on Early Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horgan, B.; Rutledge, A.; Rampe, E. B.

2015-01-01

Surface weathering on Earth is driven by precipitation (rain/snow melt). Here we summarize the influence of climate on minerals produced during surface weathering, based on terrestrial literature and our new laboratory analyses of weathering products from glacial analog sites. By comparison to minerals identified in likely surface environments on Mars, we evaluate the implications for early martian climate.

Relationship between climate change and wars between nomadic and farming groups from the Western Han Dynasty to the Tang Dynasty period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Y.; Liu, L.; Fang, X. Q.; Ma, Y. N.

2015-07-01

In ancient China, the change in regional agriculture and animal husbandry productivity caused by climate change led to either wars or peaceful relations between nomadic and farming groups. From the Western Han Dynasty to the Tang Dynasty there were 367 wars between the two groups. The nomadic people initiated 69 % of the wars, but 62.4 % were won by the farmers. On a 30 year-period timescale, warm climates corresponded to a high incidence of wars. The conflicts between the nomadic and farming groups took place in some areas which are sensitive to climate change. During the cold periods, the battlefields were mostly in the southern regions. The main causes which leading to the above results are following: (1) warm climate provided a solid material foundation for nomadic and farming groups, especially contributed to improve the productivity of nomadic group; meanwhile, the excessive desire for essential means of subsistence in nomadic group could led to wars. (2) During the cold periods, people of farming group moved to the south and construct the south, meanwhile, nomadic group occupied the central plains, thus the battlefields also changed. As the background, climate change plays an indirect role in wars between groups.

European vegetation during Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage-3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntley, Brian; Alfano, Mary J. o.; Allen, Judy R. M.; Pollard, Dave; Tzedakis, Polychronis C.; de Beaulieu, Jacques-Louis; Grüger, Eberhard; Watts, Bill

2003-03-01

European vegetation during representative "warm" and "cold" intervals of stage-3 was inferred from pollen analytical data. The inferred vegetation differs in character and spatial pattern from that of both fully glacial and fully interglacial conditions and exhibits contrasts between warm and cold intervals, consistent with other evidence for stage-3 palaeoenvironmental fluctuations. European vegetation thus appears to have been an integral component of millennial environmental fluctuations during stage-3; vegetation responded to this scale of environmental change and through feedback mechanisms may have had effects upon the environment. The pollen-inferred vegetation was compared with vegetation simulated using the BIOME 3.5 vegetation model for climatic conditions simulated using a regional climate model (RegCM2) nested within a coupled global climate and vegetation model (GENESIS-BIOME). Despite some discrepancies in detail, both approaches capture the principal features of the present vegetation of Europe. The simulated vegetation for stage-3 differs markedly from that inferred from pollen analytical data, implying substantial discrepancy between the simulated climate and that actually prevailing. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the simulated climate is too warm and probably has too short a winter season. These discrepancies may reflect incorrect specification of sea surface temperature or sea-ice conditions and may be exacerbated by vegetation-climate feedback in the coupled global model.

Performance, Physiological, and Acceptance Tests of a 1500 KCAL emergency/Assault Food Packet Diet in a Cold Weather Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-11-01

acket (E/AP) and to assess performance and physiological effects of t he ration at two different ca loric levels. During a f ive-day exercise in a...PACKET FIELD FEEDING RAT IONS DIET(S) PHYSIOLOG ICAL EMERGENCY RATIONS COMPRESSED FOODS TESTS FREEZE DRIED FOODS COLD WEATH ER PERFORMANCE...cold-weather climate, one group of Marines was issued the standard C ration (3550 kca l) while half of a second group were issued one E/AP per day

Non-stationary Return Levels of CMIP5 Multi-model Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Cheng, L.; Phillips, T. J.; AghaKouchak, A.

2015-05-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate to what extent the CMIP5 climate model simulations of the climate of the twentieth century can represent observed warm monthly temperature extremes under a changing environment. The biases and spatial patterns of 2-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return levels of the annual maxima of monthly mean temperature (hereafter, annual temperature maxima) from CMIP5 simulations are compared with those of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observational data considered under a non-stationary assumption. The results show that CMIP5 climate models collectively underestimate the mean annual maxima over arid and semi-arid regions that are mostmore » subject to severe heat waves and droughts. Furthermore, the results indicate that most climate models tend to underestimate the historical annual temperature maxima over the United States and Greenland, while generally disagreeing in their simulations over cold regions. Return level analysis shows that with respect to the spatial patterns of the annual temperature maxima, there are good agreements between the CRU observations and most CMIP5 simulations. However, the magnitudes of the simulated annual temperature maxima differ substantially across individual models. Discrepancies are generally larger over higher latitudes and cold regions.« less

From cold to hot: Climatic effects and productivity in Wisconsin dairy farms.

PubMed

Qi, L; Bravo-Ureta, B E; Cabrera, V E

2015-12-01

This study examined the effects of climatic conditions on dairy farm productivity using panel data for the state of Wisconsin along with alternative stochastic frontier models. A noteworthy feature of this analysis is that Wisconsin is a major dairy-producing area where winters are typically very cold and snowy and summers are hot and humid. Thus, it is an ideal geographical region for examining the effects of a range of climatic factors on dairy production. We identified the effects of temperature and precipitation, both jointly and separately, on milk output. The analysis showed that increasing temperature in summer or in autumn is harmful for dairy production, whereas warmer winters and warmer springs are beneficial. In contrast, more precipitation had a consistent adverse effect on dairy productivity. Overall, the analysis showed that over the past 17 yr, changes in climatic conditions have had a negative effect on Wisconsin dairy farms. Alternative scenarios predict that climate change would lead to a 5 to 11% reduction in dairy production per year between 2020 and 2039 after controlling for other factors. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Warming and Cooling: The Medieval Climate Anomaly in Africa and Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lüning, Sebastian; Gałka, Mariusz; Vahrenholt, Fritz

2017-11-01

The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is a well-recognized climate perturbation in many parts of the world, with a core period of 1000-1200 Common Era. Here we present a palaeotemperature synthesis for the MCA in Africa and Arabia, based on 44 published localities. The data sets have been thoroughly correlated and the MCA trends palaeoclimatologically mapped. The vast majority of available Afro-Arabian onshore sites suggest a warm MCA, with the exception of the southern Levant where the MCA appears to have been cold. MCA cooling has also been documented in many segments of the circum-Africa-Arabian upwelling systems, as a result of changes in the wind systems which were leading to an intensification of cold water upwelling. Offshore cores from outside upwelling systems mostly show warm MCA conditions. The most likely key drivers of the observed medieval climate change are solar forcing and ocean cycles. Conspicuous cold spikes during the earliest and latest MCA may help to discriminate between solar (Oort Minimum) and ocean cycle (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO) influence. Compared to its large share of nearly one quarter of the world's landmass, data from Africa and Arabia are significantly underrepresented in global temperature reconstructions of the past 2,000 years. Onshore data are still absent for most regions in Africa and Arabia, except for regional data clusters in Morocco, South Africa, the East African Rift, and the Levant coast. In order to reconstruct land palaeotemperatures more robustly over Africa and Arabia, a systematic research program is needed.

Environmental gradients and grassland trait variation: Insight into the effects of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tardella, Federico M.; Piermarteri, Karina; Malatesta, Luca; Catorci, Andrea

2016-10-01

The research aim was to understand how variation of temperature and water availability drives trait assemblage of seminatural grasslands in sub-Mediterranean climate, where climate change is expected to intensify summer aridity. In the central Italy, we recorded species abundance and elevation, slope aspect and angle in 129 plots. The traits we analysed were life span, growth form, clonality, belowground organs, leaf traits, plant height, seed mass, and palatability. We used Ellenberg's indicators as a proxy to assess air temperature and soil moisture gradients. From productive to harsh conditions, we observed a shift from tolerance to avoidance strategies, and a change in resource allocation strategies to face competition and stress or that maximize exploitation of patchily distributed soil resource niches. In addition, we found that the increase of temperature and water scarcity leads to the establishment of regeneration strategies that enable plants to cope with the unpredictability of changes in stress intensity and duration. Since the dry habitats of higher elevations are also constrained by winter cold stress, we argue that, within the sub-Mediterranean bioclimate, climate change will likely lead to a variation in dominance inside plant communities rather than a shift upwards of species ranges. At higher elevations, drought-adaptive traits might become more abundant on south-facing slopes that are less stressed by winter low temperatures; traits related to productive conditions and cold stress would be replaced on north-facing slopes by those adapted to overcome both the drought and the cold stresses.

Technology Solutions Case Study: Insulated Siding Retrofit in a Cold Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

In this study, the U.S. Department of Energy’s team Building America Partner¬ship for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC) worked with Kinsley Construction Company to evaluate the real-world performance of insulated sid¬ing when applied to an existing home. A 1960s home was selected for analysis. It is located in a cold climate (zone 6) where the addition of insulated siding and a carefully detailed water-resistive barrier have the potential to offer significant benefits. In particular, the team quantified building airtightness and heating energy use as a function of outdoor temperatures before and after the installa¬tion of the insulated siding.

Radon mitigation in cold climates at Kitigan Zibi Anishinabeg.

PubMed

Brossard, Mathieu; Ottawa, Céline Brazeau; Falcomer, Renato; Whyte, Jeff

2015-02-01

Available radon mitigation results were gathered for 85 houses mainly by installing sub-slab depressurization systems (SSDS) with two types of discharge and fan locations: Above ground level discharge with the fan located in the basement (AGL) or above roof line discharge with the fan located in the attic (ARL). A comparative analysis was made of mitigation efficiency and of exhaust icing. Results show that both SSDS scenarios reduced radon levels similarly. The results of SSDS with AGL show that a sealed radon fan having proper fittings and sealed piping was able to reduce the radon to acceptable levels, and that these installations were less subject to obstructive icing of the exhaust in cold climates.

The impact of cold spells on mortality and effect modification by cold spell characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lijun; Liu, Tao; Hu, Mengjue; Zeng, Weilin; Zhang, Yonghui; Rutherford, Shannon; Lin, Hualiang; Xiao, Jianpeng; Yin, Peng; Liu, Jiangmei; Chu, Cordia; Tong, Shilu; Ma, Wenjun; Zhou, Maigeng

2016-12-01

In China, the health impact of cold weather has received little attention, which limits our understanding of the health impacts of climate change. We collected daily mortality and meteorological data in 66 communities across China from 2006 to 2011. Within each community, we estimated the effect of cold spell exposure on mortality using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model (DLNM). We also examined the modification effect of cold spell characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing) and individual-specific factors (causes of death, age, gender and education). Meta-analysis method was finally used to estimate the overall effects. The overall cumulative excess risk (CER) of non-accidental mortality during cold spell days was 28.2% (95% CI: 21.4%, 35.3%) compared with non-cold spell days. There was a significant increase in mortality when the cold spell duration and intensity increased or occurred earlier in the season. Cold spell effects and effect modification by cold spell characteristics were more pronounced in south China. The elderly, people with low education level and those with respiratory diseases were generally more vulnerable to cold spells. Cold spells statistically significantly increase mortality risk in China, with greater effects in southern China. This effect is modified by cold spell characteristics and individual-level factors.

Winter cold-tolerance thresholds in field-grown Miscanthus hybrid rhizomes

PubMed Central

Peixoto, Murilo de Melo; Friesen, Patrick Calvin; Sage, Rowan F.

2015-01-01

The cold tolerance of winter-dormant rhizomes was evaluated in diploid, allotriploid, and allotetraploid hybrids of Miscanthus sinensis and Miscanthus sacchariflorus grown in a field setting. Two artificial freezing protocols were tested: one lowered the temperature continuously by 1°C h–1 to the treatment temperature and another lowered the temperature in stages of 24h each to the treatment temperature. Electrolyte leakage and rhizome sprouting assays after the cold treatment assessed plant and tissue viability. Results from the continuous-cooling trial showed that Miscanthus rhizomes from all genotypes tolerated temperatures as low as –6.5 °C; however, the slower, staged-cooling procedure enabled rhizomes from two diploid lines to survive temperatures as low as –14 °C. Allopolyploid genotypes showed no change in the lethal temperature threshold between the continuous and staged-cooling procedure, indicating that they have little ability to acclimate to subzero temperatures. The results demonstrated that rhizomes from diploid Miscanthus lines have superior cold tolerance that could be exploited to improve performance in more productive polyploid lines. With expected levels of soil insulation, low winter air temperatures should not harm rhizomes of tolerant diploid genotypes of Miscanthus in temperate to sub-boreal climates (up to 60°N); however, the observed winter cold in sub-boreal climates could harm rhizomes of existing polyploid varieties of Miscanthus and thus reduce stand performance. PMID:25788733

Is distribution of cold stenotherms constrained by temperature? The case of the Arctic fairy shrimp (Branchinecta paludosa O.F. Müller 1788).

PubMed

Lindholm, M; Hessen, D O; Færøvig, P J; Rognerud, B; Andersen, T; Stordal, F

2015-10-01

Small water bodies in cold climate respond fast to global warming, and species adapted to such habitats may be valuable indicators for climate change. We investigated the geographical and physiological temperature limits of the Arctic fairy shrimp (Branchinecta paludosa), which is common in cold water arctic ponds, but at present retracts its range in alpine areas along its southern outreach of Norway. Seasonal logging of water temperatures along an altitudinal transect revealed an upper temperature limit of 12.7°C for its presence, which closely matched a calculated upper temperature limit of 12.9°C throughout its entire Norwegian range. Field data hence point to cold stenotherm features, which would be consistent with its Arctic, circumpolar distribution. Lab experiments, on the other hand, revealed a linear increase in respiration over 10-20°C. When fed ad libitum somatic growth increased with temperature, as well, without negative physiological impacts of higher temperatures. The absence of Branchinecta paludosa in ponds warmer than 13°C could still be due to a mismatch between temperature dependent metabolism and limited energy supply in these ultraoligotrophic water bodies. We discuss the concept of cold stenothermy in this context, and the impacts of regional warming on the future distribution of the Arctic fairy shrimp. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interactions between cold and water limitation along a climate gradient produce sharp thresholds in ecosystem type, carbon balance, and water cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, A. E.; Goulden, M.; Fellows, A. W.

2013-12-01

California's Mediterranean climate supports a broad diversity of ecosystem types, including Sequoia forests in the mid-montane Sierra Nevada. Understanding how winter cold and summer drought interact to produce the lush forest in the Sierra is critical to predicting the impacts of projected climate change on California's ecosystems, water supply, and carbon cycling. We investigated how smooth gradients of temperature and water availability produced sharp thresholds in biomass, productivity, growing season, water use, and ultimately ecosystem type and function. We used the climate gradient of the western slope of the Sierra Nevada as a study system. Four eddy covariance towers were situated in the major ecosystem types of the Sierra Nevada at approximately 800-m elevation intervals. Eddy flux data were combined with remote sensing and direct measurements of biomass, productivity, soil available water, and evapotranspiration to understand how weather and available water control ecosystem production and function. We found that production at the high elevation lodgepole site at 2700 m was strongly limited by winter cold. Production at the low elevation oak woodland site at 400 m was strongly limited by summer drought. The yellow pine site at 1200 m was only 4 °C cooler than the oak woodland site, yet had an order of magnitude more biomass and productivity with year-round growth. The mixed conifer site at 2000 m is 3.5 °C warmer than the lodgepole forest, yet also has higher biomass, ten times higher productivity, and year-round growth. We conclude that there is a broad climatological 'sweet spot' within the Sierra Nevada, in which the Mediterranean climate can support large-statured forest with high growth rates. The range of the mid-elevation forest was sharply bounded by water limitation at the lower edge and cold limitation at the upper edge despite small differences in precipitation and temperature across these boundaries. Our results suggest that small changes in precipitation or winter warming could markedly alter ecosystem structure and function as well as carbon and water cycling in the Sierra Nevada.

Climatic aftermath of the 1815 Tambora eruption in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Chaochao; Gao, Yujuan; Zhang, Qian; Shi, Chunming

2017-02-01

The 1815 eruption of the Tambora volcano led to the "Year without a Summer" and caused serious crop failure and famines in 1816 across Europe and North America. However, few reports are available on Tambora's influence in China despite the region's susceptibility to monsoonal volcanic perturbation. This study presents a systemic analysis of the climatic and related social responses to the Tambora perturbation in China, by using two independent lines of proxy records and projecting the responses on top of the impacts averaged over all tropical eruptions of the past millennium. Both the tree ring and Chinese documentary proxies show that Tambora induced a cold excursion, which caused severe frost damage, snow and ice accumulations that are uncommonly seen in southern China. Cold temperature tends to cause drought by suppressing evaporation and monsoonal circulation—a hydroclimate response that is evident in the tree-ring-based Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas but largely missing in a multiproxy precipitation reconstruction. Historical records of drought, flood, frost, and famine also show fairly mild responses outside southern China, which may be partially due to the insensitivity of documentary records to the Tambora-induced perturbation, or the cold background climate set up by the low solar insolation of the coincident Dalton Minimum and a preceding unknown eruption in 1809. The results presented here provide new insights into the spatial extent and characteristics of the Tambora perturbation, by providing a systematic evaluation of the climatic aftermath in China in parallel to that in Europe and North America. They also argue for the integral use of multiple proxies from different regions of the world to gain a better understanding of the climatic impacts for individual volcanic eruptions.

A lacustrine record from Lop Nur, Xinjiang, China: Implications for paleoclimate change during Late Pleistocene

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chao, L.; Zicheng, P.; Dong, Y.; Weiguo, L.; Zhaofeng, Z.; Jianfeng, H.; Chenlin, C.

2009-01-01

Climate variability during the Late Pleistocene is studied from the proxies in core CK-2 drilled from the Luobei Depression (91??03???E, 40??47???N), Lop Nur in the eastern Tarim Basin, Xinjiang, China. Geophysical and geochemical properties, including magnetic susceptibility, granularity, chroma, carbonate content, loss on ignition and trace elements, have been determined to reconstruct the environmental evolution of the area during 32-9 ka BP. The chronology is established by uranium-thorium disequilibrium dating techniques. Our data suggest four paleoclimate stages, indicating glacial variations between cold-humid and warm-arid environments. A period of extreme humidity occurred during 31,900-19,200 yr BP is attributed the last glacial maximum (LGM). The period was followed by a warm-arid episode during 19,200-13,500 yr BP. Then a cold-humid interval during 13,500-12,700 yr BP may correspond to another cooling phases at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The last stage from 12,700 to 9000 yr BP has a trend that the climate turned warm and arid. The Lop Nur region is characterized by particularly humid stadials and arid interstadials. The climate variability in Lop Nur was constrained by global climate change because it is correlated with Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events, which were observed at the northern high latitudes. The synchroneity of the palaeoclimatic events suggested that cold air activity at the northern high latitudes was the most important factor that influenced the climate evolution in the Lop Nur region. A probable mechanism that involves the migration of westerly winds is proposed to interpret this synchroneity. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Flood Seasonality in a Changing Climate - A Comparison Between Northern Europe and Northeastern North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, B.; Dahlke, H. E.; Dieppois, B.; Lawler, D.; Lyon, S. W.

2016-12-01

Fluvial flood events have a large impact on humans, both socially and economically. Concurrent with climate change flood seasonality in cold environments is expected to shift from a snowmelt-dominated to a rainfall-dominated flow regime. This would have profound impacts on water management strategies, i.e. flood risk mitigation, drinking water supply and hydro power. In addition, cold climate hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with catchment properties and large-scale climate fluctuations making the manifestation of changes difficult to detect and predict. Understanding a possible change in flood seasonality is essential to mitigate risk and to keep management strategies viable under a changing climate. This study explored changes in flood seasonality across near-natural catchments in cold environments of the North Atlantic region (40 - 70° N) using circular statistics and trend tests. Results indicate strong seasonality in flooding for snowmelt-dominated catchments with a single peak occurring in spring (March through May), whereas flood peaks are more equally distributed throughout the year for catchments located close to the Atlantic coast and in the south of the study area. Flood seasonality has changed over the past century seen as decreasing trends in summer maximum daily flows and increasing winter and spring maximum daily flows. Mean daily flows corroborate those findings with approximately 50% of the catchments showing significant changes. Comparing Scandinavia to North America the same trends could be detected with a stronger signal at the west coast of Scandinavia due to the Westerlies. Contrasting trends were detected for spring flows, for which North American catchments showed decreasing trends whereas increasing trends were observed across Scandinavia. Such changes in flood seasonality have clear implications for management strategies such as the estimation of design floods for flood prevention measures.

Climate-induced warming imposes a threat to north European spring ecosystems.

PubMed

Jyväsjärvi, Jussi; Marttila, Hannu; Rossi, Pekka M; Ala-Aho, Pertti; Olofsson, Bo; Nisell, Jakob; Backman, Birgitta; Ilmonen, Jari; Virtanen, Risto; Paasivirta, Lauri; Britschgi, Ritva; Kløve, Bjørn; Muotka, Timo

2015-12-01

Interest in climate change effects on groundwater has increased dramatically during the last decade. The mechanisms of climate-related groundwater depletion have been thoroughly reviewed, but the influence of global warming on groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) remains poorly known. Here we report long-term water temperature trends in 66 northern European cold-water springs. A vast majority of the springs (82%) exhibited a significant increase in water temperature during 1968-2012. Mean spring water temperatures were closely related to regional air temperature and global radiative forcing of the corresponding year. Based on three alternative climate scenarios representing low (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP6) and high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5), we estimate that increase in mean spring water temperature in the region is likely to range from 0.67 °C (RCP2.6) to 5.94 °C (RCP8.5) by 2086. According to the worst-case scenario, water temperature of these originally cold-water ecosystems (regional mean in the late 1970s: 4.7 °C) may exceed 12 °C by the end of this century. We used bryophyte and macroinvertebrate species data from Finnish springs and spring-fed streams to assess ecological impacts of the predicted warming. An increase in spring water temperature by several degrees will likely have substantial biodiversity impacts, causing regional extinction of native, cold-stenothermal spring specialists, whereas species diversity of headwater generalists is likely to increase. Even a slight (by 1 °C) increase in water temperature may eliminate endemic spring species, thus altering bryophyte and macroinvertebrate assemblages of spring-fed streams. Climate change-induced warming of northern regions may thus alter species composition of the spring biota and cause regional homogenization of biodiversity in headwater ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climatic controls of western U.S. glaciers at the last glacial maximum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Clark, P.U.

1997-01-01

We use a nested atmospheric modeling strategy to simulate precipitation and temperature of the western United States 18,000 years ago (18 ka). The high resolution of the nested model allows us to isolate the regional structure of summer temperature and winter precipitation that is crucial to determination of the net mass balance of late-Pleistocene mountain glaciers in this region of diverse topography and climate. Modeling results suggest that climatic controls of these glaciers varied significantly over the western U.S. Glaciers in the northern Rocky Mountains existed under relatively cold July temperatures and low winter accumulation, reflecting anticyclonic, easterly wind flow off the Laurentide Ice Sheet. In contrast, glaciers that existed under relatively warmer and wetter conditions are located along the Pacific coast south of Oregon, where enhanced westerlies delivered higher precipitation than at present. Between these two groupings lie glaciers that were controlled by a mix of cold and wet conditions attributed to the convergence of cold air from the ice sheet and moisture derived from the westerlies. Sensitivity tests suggest that, for our simulated 18 ka climate, many of the glaciers exhibit a variable response to climate but were generally more sensitive to changes in temperature than to changes in precipitation, particularly those glaciers in central Idaho and the Yellowstone Plateau. Our results support arguments that temperature depression generally played a larger role in lowering equilibrium line altitudes in the western U.S. during the last glacial maximum than did increased precipitation, although the magnitude of temperature depression required for steady-state mass balance varied from 8-18??C. Only the Sierra Nevada glaciers required a substantial increase in precipitation to achieve steady-state mass balance, while glaciers in the Cascade Range existed with decreased precipitation.

The potential for behavioral thermoregulation to buffer "cold-blooded" animals against climate warming.

PubMed

Kearney, Michael; Shine, Richard; Porter, Warren P

2009-03-10

Increasing concern about the impacts of global warming on biodiversity has stimulated extensive discussion, but methods to translate broad-scale shifts in climate into direct impacts on living animals remain simplistic. A key missing element from models of climatic change impacts on animals is the buffering influence of behavioral thermoregulation. Here, we show how behavioral and mass/energy balance models can be combined with spatial data on climate, topography, and vegetation to predict impacts of increased air temperature on thermoregulating ectotherms such as reptiles and insects (a large portion of global biodiversity). We show that for most "cold-blooded" terrestrial animals, the primary thermal challenge is not to attain high body temperatures (although this is important in temperate environments) but to stay cool (particularly in tropical and desert areas, where ectotherm biodiversity is greatest). The impact of climate warming on thermoregulating ectotherms will depend critically on how changes in vegetation cover alter the availability of shade as well as the animals' capacities to alter their seasonal timing of activity and reproduction. Warmer environments also may increase maintenance energy costs while simultaneously constraining activity time, putting pressure on mass and energy budgets. Energy- and mass-balance models provide a general method to integrate the complexity of these direct interactions between organisms and climate into spatial predictions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity. This methodology allows quantitative organism- and habitat-specific assessments of climate change impacts.

The potential for behavioral thermoregulation to buffer “cold-blooded” animals against climate warming

PubMed Central

Kearney, Michael; Shine, Richard; Porter, Warren P.

2009-01-01

Increasing concern about the impacts of global warming on biodiversity has stimulated extensive discussion, but methods to translate broad-scale shifts in climate into direct impacts on living animals remain simplistic. A key missing element from models of climatic change impacts on animals is the buffering influence of behavioral thermoregulation. Here, we show how behavioral and mass/energy balance models can be combined with spatial data on climate, topography, and vegetation to predict impacts of increased air temperature on thermoregulating ectotherms such as reptiles and insects (a large portion of global biodiversity). We show that for most “cold-blooded” terrestrial animals, the primary thermal challenge is not to attain high body temperatures (although this is important in temperate environments) but to stay cool (particularly in tropical and desert areas, where ectotherm biodiversity is greatest). The impact of climate warming on thermoregulating ectotherms will depend critically on how changes in vegetation cover alter the availability of shade as well as the animals' capacities to alter their seasonal timing of activity and reproduction. Warmer environments also may increase maintenance energy costs while simultaneously constraining activity time, putting pressure on mass and energy budgets. Energy- and mass-balance models provide a general method to integrate the complexity of these direct interactions between organisms and climate into spatial predictions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity. This methodology allows quantitative organism- and habitat-specific assessments of climate change impacts. PMID:19234117

Molluscan evidence for early middle Miocene marine glaciation in southern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marincovich, L.

1990-01-01

Profound cooling of Miocene marine climates in southern Alaska culminated in early middle Miocene coastal marine glaciation in the northeastern Gulf of Alaska. This climatic change resulted from interaction of the Yakutat terrane with southern Alaska beginning in late Oligocene time. The ensuing extreme uplift of the coastal Chugach and St. Elias Mountains resulted in progressive regional cooling that culminated in coastal marine glaciation beginning in the early middle Miocene (15-16 Ma) and continuing to the present. The counterclockwise flow of surface water from the frigid northeastern Gulf of Alaska resulted in a cold-temperate shallow-marine environment in the western Gulf of Alaska, as it does today. Ironically, dating of Gulf of Alaska marine glaciation as early middle Miocene is strongly reinforced by the presence of a few tropical and subtropical mollusks in western Gulf of Alaska faunas. Shallow-marine waters throughout the Gulf of Alaska were cold-temperate to cold in the early middle Miocene, when the world ocean was undergoing peak Neogene warming. -Author

Human-biometeorological conditions in the southern Baltic coast based on the universal thermal climate index (UTCI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolendowicz, Leszek; Półrolniczak, Marek; Szyga-Pluta, Katarzyna; Bednorz, Ewa

2017-10-01

The paper focuses on bioclimatic conditions in the southern part of the Baltic coast based on universal thermal climate index values. Taking into consideration the observational data from coastline stations as well as reanalysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (sea level pressure and the 500 hPa geopotential height), the authors attempt to explain which of the synoptic situations are responsible for the occurrence of days with very strong and extreme cold or heat stress. The obtained results confirm that the extreme thermal heat and cold stress conditions are for the most part associated with high-pressure systems. The researched area is usually situated in the western or southern periphery of the anticyclones. The cold stress also occurs during the advection from west or northwest, caused by the direct influence of a low-pressure system whose center is situated over the North Sea, southern Scandinavia, or the southern Baltic Sea.

The interaction between freezing tolerance and phenology in temperate deciduous trees

PubMed Central

Vitasse, Yann; Lenz, Armando; Körner, Christian

2014-01-01

Temperate climates are defined by distinct temperature seasonality with large and often unpredictable weather during any of the four seasons. To thrive in such climates, trees have to withstand a cold winter and the stochastic occurrence of freeze events during any time of the year. The physiological mechanisms trees adopt to escape, avoid, and tolerate freezing temperatures include a cold acclimation in autumn, a dormancy period during winter (leafless in deciduous trees), and the maintenance of a certain freezing tolerance during dehardening in early spring. The change from one phase to the next is mediated by complex interactions between temperature and photoperiod. This review aims at providing an overview of the interplay between phenology of leaves and species-specific freezing resistance. First, we address the long-term evolutionary responses that enabled temperate trees to tolerate certain low temperature extremes. We provide evidence that short term acclimation of freezing resistance plays a crucial role both in dormant and active buds, including re-acclimation to cold conditions following warm spells. This ability declines to almost zero during leaf emergence. Second, we show that the risk that native temperate trees encounter freeze injuries is low and is confined to spring and underline that this risk might be altered by climate warming depending on species-specific phenological responses to environmental cues. PMID:25346748

Climate and hydrology of the last interglaciation (MIS 5) in Owens Basin, California: Isotopic and geochemical evidence from core OL-92

USGS Publications Warehouse

Li, H.-C.; Bischoff, J.L.; Ku, T.-L.; Zhu, Z.-Y.

2004-01-01

??18O, ??13C, total organic carbon, total inorganic carbon, and acid-leachable Li, Mg and Sr concentrations on 443 samples from 32 to 83 m depth in Owens Lake core OL-92 were analyzed to study the climatic and hydrological conditions between 60 and 155 ka with a resolution of ???200 a. The multi-proxy data show that Owens Lake overflowed during wet/cold conditions of marine isotope stages (MIS) 4, 5b and 6, and was closed during the dry/warm conditions of MIS 5a, c and e. The lake partially overflowed during MIS 5d. Our age model places the MIS 4/5 boundary at ca 72.5 ka and the MIS 5/6 boundary (Termination II) at ca 140 ka, agreeing with the Devils Hole chronology. The diametrical precipitation intensities between the Great Basin (cold/wet) and eastern China (cold/dry) on Milankovitch time scales imply a climatic teleconnection across the Pacific. It also probably reflects the effect of high-latitude ice sheets on the southward shifts of both the summer monsoon frontal zone in eastern Asia and the polar jet stream in western North America during glacial periods. ?? 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temperature-dependent development, cold tolerance, and potential distribution of Cricotopus lebetis (Diptera: Chironomidae), a tip miner of Hydrilla verticillata (Hydrocharitaceae).

PubMed

Stratman, Karen N; Overholt, William A; Cuda, James P; Mukherjee, A; Diaz, R; Netherland, Michael D; Wilson, Patrick C

2014-10-15

A chironomid midge, Cricotopus lebetis (Sublette) (Diptera: Chironomidae), was discovered attacking the apical meristems of Hydrilla verticillata (L.f. Royle) in Crystal River, Citrus Co., Florida in 1992. The larvae mine the stems of H. verticillata and cause basal branching and stunting of the plant. Temperature-dependent development, cold tolerance, and the potential distribution of the midge were investigated. The results of the temperature-dependent development study showed that optimal temperatures for larval development were between 20 and 30°C, and these data were used to construct a map of the potential number of generations per year of C. lebetis in Florida. Data from the cold tolerance study, in conjunction with historical weather data, were used to generate a predicted distribution of C. lebetis in the United States. A distribution was also predicted using an ecological niche modeling approach by characterizing the climate at locations where C. lebetis is known to occur and then finding other locations with similar climate. The distributions predicted using the two modeling approaches were not significantly different and suggested that much of the southeastern United States was climatically suitable for C. lebetis. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

Collapse and rapid resumption of Atlantic meridional circulation linked to deglacial climate changes.

PubMed

McManus, J F; Francois, R; Gherardi, J-M; Keigwin, L D; Brown-Leger, S

2004-04-22

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is widely believed to affect climate. Changes in ocean circulation have been inferred from records of the deep water chemical composition derived from sedimentary nutrient proxies, but their impact on climate is difficult to assess because such reconstructions provide insufficient constraints on the rate of overturning. Here we report measurements of 231Pa/230Th, a kinematic proxy for the meridional overturning circulation, in a sediment core from the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. We find that the meridional overturning was nearly, or completely, eliminated during the coldest deglacial interval in the North Atlantic region, beginning with the catastrophic iceberg discharge Heinrich event H1, 17,500 yr ago, and declined sharply but briefly into the Younger Dryas cold event, about 12,700 yr ago. Following these cold events, the 231Pa/230Th record indicates that rapid accelerations of the meridional overturning circulation were concurrent with the two strongest regional warming events during deglaciation. These results confirm the significance of variations in the rate of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation for abrupt climate changes.

Effects of Air Temperature on Climate-Sensitive Mortality and Morbidity Outcomes in the Elderly; a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Epidemiological Evidence.

PubMed

Bunker, Aditi; Wildenhain, Jan; Vandenbergh, Alina; Henschke, Nicholas; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hajat, Shakoor; Sauerborn, Rainer

2016-04-01

Climate change and rapid population ageing are significant public health challenges. Understanding which health problems are affected by temperature is important for preventing heat and cold-related deaths and illnesses, particularly in the elderly. Here we present a systematic review and meta-analysis on the effects of ambient hot and cold temperature (excluding heat/cold wave only studies) on elderly (65+ years) mortality and morbidity. Time-series or case-crossover studies comprising cause-specific cases of elderly mortality (n=3,933,398) or morbidity (n=12,157,782) were pooled to obtain a percent change (%) in risk for temperature exposure on cause-specific disease outcomes using a random-effects meta-analysis. A 1°C temperature rise increased cardiovascular (3.44%, 95% CI 3.10-3.78), respiratory (3.60%, 3.18-4.02), and cerebrovascular (1.40%, 0.06-2.75) mortality. A 1°C temperature reduction increased respiratory (2.90%, 1.84-3.97) and cardiovascular (1.66%, 1.19-2.14) mortality. The greatest risk was associated with cold-induced pneumonia (6.89%, 20-12.99) and respiratory morbidity (4.93% 1.54-8.44). A 1°C temperature rise increased cardiovascular, respiratory, diabetes mellitus, genitourinary, infectious disease and heat-related morbidity. Elevated risks for the elderly were prominent for temperature-induced cerebrovascular, cardiovascular, diabetes, genitourinary, infectious disease, heat-related, and respiratory outcomes. These risks will likely increase with climate change and global ageing. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

PubMed Central

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change. PMID:24823495

Temperate mountain forest biodiversity under climate change: compensating negative effects by increasing structural complexity.

PubMed

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species' occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species' occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

Observations and simulations of snowpack cold content and its relationship to snowmelt timing and rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jennings, K. S.; Molotch, N. P.

2017-12-01

Mountain snowpacks serve as a vital water resource for more than 1 billion people across the globe. Two key properties of snowmelt—rate and timing—are controlled by the snowpack energy budget where incoming positive fluxes are balanced by a decrease in the energy deficit of the snowpack and a change in the phase of water from solid to liquid. In this context, the energy deficit, or cold content, regulates snowmelt as runoff does not commence until the deficit approaches zero. There is significant uncertainty surrounding cold content despite its relevance to snowmelt processes, likely due to the inherent difficulties in its observation. Our work has clarified the previously unresolved meteorological and energy balance controls on cold content development in seasonal snowpacks by leveraging two unique datasets from the Niwot Ridge LTER in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. The first is a long-term snow pit record of snowpack properties from an alpine and subalpine site within the LTER. These data were augmented with a 23-year simulation of the snowpack at both sites using a quality controlled, serially complete, hourly forcing dataset. The observations and simulations both indicated that cold content primarily developed through new snowfall, while a negative energy budget provided a secondary pathway for cold content development, mainly through longwave emission and sublimation. Cold content gains from snowfall outnumbered energy balance gains by 438% in the alpine and 166% in the subalpine. Increased spring precipitation and later peak cold content significantly delayed snowmelt onset and daily melt rates were reduced by 32.2% in the alpine and 36.1% in the subalpine when an energy deficit needed to be satisfied. Furthermore, preliminary climate change simulations indicated warmer air temperatures reduced cold content accumulation, which increased the amount of snow lost to melt throughout the winter as incoming positive fluxes had to overcome smaller energy deficits. Overall, this work shows that meteorological and energy balance processes that increase cold content (e.g., snowfall, longwave emission, and sublimation) delay snowmelt onset and damp snowmelt rate, a relationship that will likely be impacted by climate warming with resultant effects on water resource availability.

Investigating cold based summit glaciers through direct access to the glacier base: a case study constraining the maximum age of Chli Titlis glacier, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohleber, Pascal; Hoffmann, Helene; Kerch, Johanna; Sold, Leo; Fischer, Andrea

2018-01-01

Cold glaciers at the highest locations of the European Alps have been investigated by drilling ice cores to retrieve their stratigraphic climate records. Findings like the Oetztal ice man have demonstrated that small ice bodies at summit locations of comparatively lower altitudes may also contain old ice if locally frozen to the underlying bedrock. In this case, constraining the maximum age of their lowermost ice part may help to identify past periods with minimum ice extent in the Alps. However, with recent warming and consequent glacier mass loss, these sites may not preserve their unique climate information for much longer. Here we utilized an existing ice cave at Chli Titlis (3030 m), central Switzerland, to perform a case study for investigating the maximum age of cold-based summit glaciers in the Alps. The cave offers direct access to the glacier stratigraphy without the logistical effort required in ice core drilling. In addition, a pioneering exploration had already demonstrated stagnant cold ice conditions at Chli Titlis, albeit more than 25 years ago. Our englacial temperature measurements and the analysis of the isotopic and physical properties of ice blocks sampled at three locations within the ice cave show that cold ice still exists fairly unchanged today. State-of-the-art micro-radiocarbon analysis constrains the maximum age of the ice at Chli Titlis to about 5000 years before present. By this means, the approach presented here will contribute to a future systematic investigation of cold-based summit glaciers, also in the Eastern Alps.

Comparing Enchytraeus albidus populations from contrasting climatic environments suggest a link between cold tolerance and metabolic activity.

PubMed

Žagar, Anamarija; Holmstrup, Martin; Simčič, Tatjana; Debeljak, Barabara; Slotsbo, Stine

2018-06-06

Basal metabolic activity and freezing of body fluids create reactive oxygen species (ROS) in freeze-tolerant organisms. These sources of ROS can have an additive negative effect via oxidative stress. In cells, antioxidant systems are responsible for removing ROS in order to avoid damage due to oxidative stress. Relatively little is known about the importance of metabolic rate for the survival of freezing, despite a good understanding of several cold tolerance related physiological mechanisms. We hypothesized that low basal metabolism would be selected for in freeze-tolerant organisms where winter survival is important for fitness for two reasons. First, avoidance of the additive effect of ROS production from metabolism and freezing, and second, as an energy-saving mechanism under extended periods of freezing where the animal is metabolically active, but unable to feed. We used the terrestrial oligochaete, Enchytraeus albidus, which is widely distributed from Spain to the high Arctic and compared eight populations originating across a broad geographical and climatic gradient after they had been cold acclimated at 5 °C in a common garden experiment. Cold tolerance (lower lethal temperature: LT50) and the potential metabolic activity (PMA, an estimator of the maximal enzymatic potential of the mitochondrial respiration chain) of eight populations were positively correlated amongst each other and correlated negatively with latitude and positively with average yearly temperature and the average temperature of the coldest month. These results indicate that low PMA in cold tolerant populations is important for survival in extremely cold environments. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Moist Climates with an Ineffective Cold Trap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, F.; Pierrehumbert, R.

2016-12-01

The tropopause of the Earth's atmosphere behaves as a cold trap, limiting the water vapor transport from the humid sea surface to the dry regions in the atmosphere including both the upper atmosphere and the highly sub-saturated places in the free troposphere. It is hypothesized that during some period of time on Earth, the cold trap mechanism would become less effective, due to either a reduced nitrogen inventory in the atmosphere or high surface temperatures. An ineffective cold trap favors a moist upper atmosphere and will lead to rapid water loss by the ultraviolet photodissociation, which was well studied in one-dimensional models. However, the effect of an ineffective cold trap on 3D climates has not yet received much attention. Here we explore the 3D effect with an idealized general circulation model especially designed for studying condensible-rich atmospheres. We consider two scenarios based on the orbital configuration of the planet. (a) With Earth's orbital parameters, sub-saturation in the free troposphere is difficult to be produced by large-scale atmospheric flows, which implies that an ineffective cold trap also favors the onset of the runaway greenhouse. (b) For synchronous-rotating planets, water vapor is easier to be transported to the nightside, building up an atmosphere with similar column water mass as the dayside. For extrasolar habitable planets detections around M dwarfs in the future, if the water vapor contrast between the day and night side could be provided by the phase-resolved emission spectra, the contrast might be useful as a constraint for evaluating the mass of the non-condensible components in the atmosphere.

Seed dormancy and germination changes of snowbed species under climate warming: the role of pre- and post-dispersal temperatures

PubMed Central

Bernareggi, Giulietta; Carbognani, Michele; Mondoni, Andrea; Petraglia, Alessandro

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Climate warming has major impacts on seed germination of several alpine species, hence on their regeneration capacity. Most studies have investigated the effects of warming after seed dispersal, and little is known about the effects a warmer parental environment may have on germination and dormancy of the seed progeny. Nevertheless, temperatures during seed development and maturation could alter the state of dormancy, affecting the timing of emergence and seedling survival. Here, the interplay between pre- and post-dispersal temperatures driving seed dormancy release and germination requirements of alpine plants were investigated. Methods Three plant species inhabiting alpine snowbeds were exposed to an artificial warming treatment (i.e. +1·5 K) and to natural conditions in the field. Seeds produced were exposed to six different periods of cold stratification (0, 2, 4, 8, 12 and 20 weeks at 0 °C), followed by four incubation temperatures (5, 10, 15 and 20 °C) for germination testing. Key Results A warmer parental environment produced either no or a significant increase in germination, depending on the duration of cold stratification, incubation temperatures and their interaction. In contrast, the speed of germination was less sensitive to changes in the parental environment. Moreover, the effects of warming appeared to be linked to the level of (physiological) seed dormancy, with deeper dormant species showing major changes in response to incubation temperatures and less dormant species in response to cold stratification periods. Conclusions Plants developed under warmer climates will produce seeds with changed germination responses to temperature and/or cold stratification, but the extent of these changes across species could be driven by seed dormancy traits. Transgenerational plastic adjustments of seed germination and dormancy shown here may result from increased seed viability, reduced primary and secondary dormancy state, or both, and may play a crucial role in future plant adaptation to climate change. PMID:27390354

EVermont Renewable Hydrogen Production and Transportation Fueling System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garabedian, Harold T.

2008-03-30

A great deal of research funding is being devoted to the use of hydrogen for transportation fuel, particularly in the development of fuel cell vehicles. When this research bears fruit in the form of consumer-ready vehicles, will the fueling infrastructure be ready? Will the required fueling systems work in cold climates as well as they do in warm areas? Will we be sure that production of hydrogen as the energy carrier of choice for our transit system is the most energy efficient and environmentally friendly option? Will consumers understand this fuel and how to handle it? Those are questions addressedmore » by the EVermont Wind to Wheels Hydrogen Project: Sustainable Transportation. The hydrogen fueling infrastructure consists of three primary subcomponents: a hydrogen generator (electrolyzer), a compression and storage system, and a dispenser. The generated fuel is then used to provide transportation as a motor fuel. EVermont Inc., started in 1993 by then governor Howard Dean, is a public-private partnership of entities interested in documenting and advancing the performance of advanced technology vehicles that are sustainable and less burdensome on the environment, especially in areas of cold climates, hilly terrain and with rural settlement patterns. EVermont has developed a demonstration wind powered hydrogen fuel producing filling system that uses electrolysis, compression to 5000 psi and a hydrogen burning vehicle that functions reliably in cold climates. And that fuel is then used to meet transportation needs in a hybrid electric vehicle whose internal combustion engine has been converted to operate on hydrogen Sponsored by the DOE EERE Hydrogen, Fuel Cells & Infrastructure Technologies (HFC&IT) Program, the purpose of the project is to test the viability of sustainably produced hydrogen for use as a transportation fuel in a cold climate with hilly terrain and rural settlement patterns. Specifically, the project addresses the challenge of building a renewable transportation energy capable system. The prime energy for this project comes from an agreement with a wind turbine operator.« less

[Dimorphism of cerumen, facts and theory].

PubMed

Meyer zum Gottesberge, A; Meyer zum Gottesberge, A

1995-10-01

¿Dimorphism¿ means the existence of two phenotypic different types of the human cerumen and morphology of the cerumen glands. In this paper, the morphological, biochemical, and functional differences are reviewed. The wet cerumen is better adapted to a hot and humid climate where infections of the outer ear are very frequent and sometimes severe. In a cold and dry climate, the dry cerumen is advantageous. In the moderate climates, both types are equivalent (balanced dimorphism).

Medical Services: Preventive Medicine

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-10-15

and comfort.Barracks are ventilated to dilute unpleasant odors , tobacco smoke, airborne microorganisms and dusts, and to reduce tempera- ture and...injury in cold climates by wearing proper cold-weather clothing and frequently changing socks to keep feet dry, by careful handling of gasoline-type...that refugee enclaves and prisoner compounds do not become foci of epidemic disease. (4) Environmental engineering service, LC teams. The LC teams will

Global warming of salmon and trout rivers in the northwestern U.S.: Road to ruin or path through purgatory?

Treesearch

Daniel J. Isaak; Charles H. Luce; Dona L. Horan; Gwynne Chandler; Sherry Wollrab; David E. Nagel

2018-01-01

Large rivers constitute small portions of drainage networks but provide important migratory habitats and fisheries for salmon and trout when and where temperatures are sufficiently cold. Management and conservation of cold‐water fishes in the current era of rapid climate change requires knowing how riverine thermal environments are evolving and the potential for...

Climate-mediated changes in zooplankton community structure for the eastern Bering Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisner, Lisa B.; Napp, Jeffrey M.; Mier, Kathryn L.; Pinchuk, Alexei I.; Andrews, Alexander G.

2014-11-01

Zooplankton are critical to energy transfer between higher and lower trophic levels in the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem. Previous studies from the southeastern Bering Sea shelf documented substantial differences in zooplankton taxa in the Middle and Inner Shelf Domains between warm and cold years. Our investigation expands this analysis into the northern Bering Sea and the south Outer Domain, looking at zooplankton community structure during a period of climate-mediated, large-scale change. Elevated air temperatures in the early 2000s resulted in regional warming and low sea-ice extent in the southern shelf whereas the late 2000s were characterized by cold winters, extensive spring sea ice, and a well-developed pool of cold water over the entire Middle Domain. The abundance of large zooplankton taxa such as Calanus spp. (C. marshallae and C. glacialis), and Parasagitta elegans, increased from warm to cold periods, while the abundance of gelatinous zooplankton (Cnidaria) and small taxa decreased. Biomass followed the same trends as abundance, except that the biomass of small taxa in the southeastern Bering Sea remained constant due to changes in abundance of small copepod taxa (increases in Acartia spp. and Pseudocalanus spp. and decreases in Oithona spp.). Statistically significant changes in zooplankton community structure and individual species were greatest in the Middle Domain, but were evident in all shelf domains, and in both the northern and southern portions of the eastern shelf. Changes in community structure did not occur abruptly during the transition from warm to cold, but seemed to begin gradually and build as the influence of the sea ice and cold water temperatures persisted. The change occurred one year earlier in the northern than the southern Middle Shelf. These and previous observations demonstrate that lower trophic levels within the eastern Bering Sea respond to climate-mediated changes on a variety of time scales, including those shorter than the commonly accepted quasi-decadal time periods. This lack of resilience or inertia at the lowest trophic levels affects production at higher trophic levels and must be considered in management strategy evaluations of living marine resources.

Endotoxin predictors and associated respiratory outcomes differ with climate regions in the U.S.

PubMed

Mendy, Angelico; Wilkerson, Jesse; Salo, Pӓivi M; Cohn, Richard D; Zeldin, Darryl C; Thorne, Peter S

2018-03-01

Although endotoxin is a recognized cause of environmental lung disease, how its relationship with respiratory outcomes varies with climate is unknown. To examine the endotoxin predictors as well as endotoxin association with asthma, wheeze, and sensitization to inhalant allergens in various US climate regions. We analyzed data on 6963 participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Endotoxin measurements of house dust from bedroom floor and bedding were performed at the University of Iowa. Linear and logistic regression analyses were used to identify endotoxin predictors and assess endotoxin association with health outcomes. The overall median house dust endotoxin was 16.2 EU/mg; it was higher in mixed-dry/hot-dry regions (19.7 EU/mg) and lower in mixed-humid/marine areas (14.8 EU/mg). Endotoxin predictors and endotoxin association with health outcomes significantly differed across climate regions. In subarctic/very cold/cold regions, log 10 -endotoxin was significantly associated with higher prevalence of wheeze outcomes (OR:1.48, 95% CI:1.19-1.85 for any wheeze, OR:1.48, 95% CI:1.22-1.80 for exercise-induced wheeze, OR:1.50, 95% CI:1.13-1.98 for prescription medication for wheeze, and OR:1.95, 95% CI:1.50-2.54 for doctor/ER visit for wheeze). In hot-humid regions, log 10 -endotoxin was positively associated with any wheeze (OR:1.66, 95% CI:1.04-2.65) and current asthma (OR:1.56, 95% CI:1.11-2.18), but negatively with sensitization to any inhalant allergens (OR:0.83, 95% CI:0.74-0.92). Endotoxin predictors and endotoxin association with asthma and wheeze differ across U.S. climate regions. Endotoxin is associated positively with wheeze or asthma in cold and hot-humid regions, but negatively with sensitization to inhalant allergens in hot-humid climates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vegetation changes and timberline fluctuations in the Central Alps as indicators of holocene climatic oscillations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wick, L.; Tinner, W.

Pollen and plant-macrofossil data are presented for two lakes near the timberline in the Italian (Lago Basso, 2250 m) and Swiss Central Alps (Gouille Rion, 2343 m). The reforestation at both sites started at 9700-9500 BP with Pinus cembra, Larix decidua, and Betula. The timberline reached its highest elevation between 8700 and 5000 BP and retreated after 5000 BP, due to a mid-Holocene climatic change and increasing human impact since about 3500 BP (Bronze Age). The expansion of Picea abies at Lago Basso between ca. 7500 and 6200 BP was probably favored by cold phases accompanied by increased oceanicity, whereasmore » in the area of Gouille Rion, where spruce expanded rather late (between 4500 and 3500 BP), human influence equality might have been important. The mass expansion of Alnus viridis between ca. 5000 and 3500 BP probably can be related to both climatic change and human activity at timberline. During the early and middle Holocene a series of timberline fluctuations is recorded as declines in pollen and macrofossil concentrations of the major tree species, and as increases in nonarboreal pollen in the pollen percentage diagram of Gouille Rion. Most of the periods of low timberline can be correlated by radiocarbon dating the climatic changes in the Alps as indicated by glacier advances in combination with palynological records, solifluction, and dendroclimatical data. Lago Basso and Gouille Rion are the only sites in the Alps showing complete palaeobotanical records of cold phases between 10,000 and 2000 BP with very good time control. The altitudinal range of the Holocene treeline fluctuations caused by climate most likely was not more than 100 to 150 m. A possible correlation of a cold period at ca. 7500-6500 BP (Misox oscillation) in the Alps is made with paleoecological data from North American and Scandinavia and a climate signal in the GRIP ice core from central Greenland 8200 yr ago (ca. 7400 yr uncal. BP).« less

Current and future hot-spots and hot-moments of nitrous oxide emission in a cold climate river basin.

PubMed

Shrestha, Narayan Kumar; Wang, Junye

2018-08-01

An ecosystem in a cold climate river basin is vulnerable to the effects of climate change affecting permafrost thaw and glacier retreat. We currently lack sufficient data and information if and how hydrological processes such as glacier retreat, snowmelt and freezing-thawing affect sediment and nutrient runoff and transport, as well as N 2 O emissions in cold climate river basins. As such, we have implemented well-established, semi-empirical equations of nitrification and denitrification within the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which correlate the emissions with water, sediment and nutrients. We have tested this implementation to simulate emission dynamics at three sites on the Canadian prairies. We then regionalized the optimized parameters to a SWAT model of the Athabasca River Basin (ARB), Canada, calibrated and validated for streamflow, sediment and water quality. In the base period (1990-2005), agricultural areas (2662 gN/ha/yr) constituted emission hot-spots. The spring season in agricultural areas and summer season in forest areas, constituted emission hot-moments. We found that warmer conditions (+13% to +106%) would have a greater influence on emissions than wetter conditions (-19% to +13%), and that the combined effect of wetter and warmer conditions would be more offsetting than synergetic. Our results imply that the spatiotemporal variability of N 2 O emissions will depend strongly on soil water changes caused by permafrost thaw. Early snow freshet leads to spatial variability of soil erosion and nutrient runoff, as well as increases of emissions in winter and decreases in spring. Our simulations suggest crop residue management may reduce emissions by 34%, but with the mixed results reported in the literature and the soil and hydrology problems associated with stover removal more research is necessary. This modelling tool can be used to refine bottom-up emission estimations at river basin scale, test plausible management scenarios, and assess climate change impacts including climate feedback. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, USA.

PubMed

Lyons, J; Stewart, J S; Mitro, M

2010-11-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0-93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Community phylogenetics at the biogeographical scale: cold tolerance, niche conservatism and the structure of North American forests.

PubMed

Hawkins, Bradford A; Rueda, Marta; Rangel, Thiago F; Field, Richard; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F; Linder, Peter

2014-01-01

Aim The fossil record has led to a historical explanation for forest diversity gradients within the cool parts of the Northern Hemisphere, founded on a limited ability of woody angiosperm clades to adapt to mid-Tertiary cooling. We tested four predictions of how this should be manifested in the phylogenetic structure of 91,340 communities: (1) forests to the north should comprise species from younger clades (families) than forests to the south; (2) average cold tolerance at a local site should be associated with the mean family age (MFA) of species; (3) minimum temperature should account for MFA better than alternative environmental variables; and (4) traits associated with survival in cold climates should evolve under a niche conservatism constraint. Location The contiguous United States. Methods We extracted angiosperms from the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis database. MFA was calculated by assigning age of the family to which each species belongs and averaging across the species in each community. We developed a phylogeny to identify phylogenetic signal in five traits: realized cold tolerance, seed size, seed dispersal mode, leaf phenology and height. Phylogenetic signal representation curves and phylogenetic generalized least squares were used to compare patterns of trait evolution against Brownian motion. Eleven predictors structured at broad or local scales were generated to explore relationships between environment and MFA using random forest and general linear models. Results Consistent with predictions, (1) southern communities comprise angiosperm species from older families than northern communities, (2) cold tolerance is the trait most strongly associated with local MFA, (3) minimum temperature in the coldest month is the environmental variable that best describes MFA, broad-scale variables being much stronger correlates than local-scale variables, and (4) the phylogenetic structures of cold tolerance and at least one other trait associated with survivorship in cold climates indicate niche conservatism. Main conclusions Tropical niche conservatism in the face of long-term climate change, probably initiated in the Late Cretaceous associated with the rise of the Rocky Mountains, is a strong driver of the phylogenetic structure of the angiosperm component of forest communities across the USA. However, local deterministic and/or stochastic processes account for perhaps a quarter of the variation in the MFA of local communities.

Confronting the surface temperature cold bias in AGCMs over the Tibetan Plateau and improving climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, G. X.; Liu, Y.; Bao, Q.; Chen, X.; Li, J.

2017-12-01

One of the mid-term progresses of the NSFC- Key Research Program "Land-air Coupling over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Climate Impact " is presented. The elevated heating in summer and cooling in winter of the Tibetan Plateau significantly regulate the seasonal change of the atmospheric circulation and exert remarkable impacts on world climate. Recent studies have demonstrated that the majority of the Phase-5 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models underestimate annual and seasonal mean surface air temperatures (Ta) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In addition, more than half of the models underestimate annual and seasonal mean surface temperatures (Ts) over the TP. These cold biases are larger over the western TP. By decomposing the Ts bias using the surface energy budget equation, it was demonstrated that this TP's cold bias can be attributed to various factors, in which the stronger bias in surface albedo (a-) and the weaker bias in clear-sky downward Longwave radiation (DLR) play the most significant roles. Since a- and DLR are respectively affected by snow coverage fraction at the ground surface and water vapor content in the atmosphere, these results then imply that the cold bias over the TP is caused by too large snow coverage fraction and too less water vapor content over the TP in the models. The FAMIL AGCM model developed at LASG also suffers from the similar cold bias over the TP. By introducing the 3D- Radiative Transfer Parameterization Over Mountains/Snow (Liou, 2013) into the model, the total solar radiation reaching the ground surface is increased during the daytime, resulting in more snowmelt and less snow coverage. Accordingly, surface albedo is decreased on the sunny side of the mountains, and the surface cold bias over mountain areas is decreased. It is shown that the improvement is sensitive to the model resolution: increased the horizontal resolution of Community Land Model version 4.0 (CLM 4.0) from nearly 200km (1.9o×2.5o) to about 25km (0.23o×0.31o) can significantly improve the parameterization effect and accuracy, with more notably improvement appearing in Spring. It is demonstrated that, by stimulating a Rossby wave and strengthen the precipitation in subtropical frontal zone of East Asia, the decrement of clod bias over the TP can greatly improve the climate simulations of the model.

Long-Term Sun Climate Connections, Revealed by the Analyses of Historical and Other Proxy Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, K. D.; Yau, K.

2004-12-01

The Sun, once considered constant, actually goes through 11-year, decadal, centennial, and even longer cycles. Our analysis of historical sunspot and aurora records, carbon-14 and beryllium-10 abundances from long-lived trees and deep polar ice cores, respectively, shows that it has gone through nine long cycles in the past 1800 years. Although these changes amounted to <1% of the total irradiance there is clear evidence they produced corresponding changes in the climate [Pang and Yau, Eos, 83, No. 43, 481, 2002]. For example during the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) sunspots were rarely seen (about once in ten years from Europe or China). Total solar irradiances, reconstructed from historical sunspot records, were 0.25% lower then. This correlates nicely with an estimated 0.5-degree drop in Northern Hemisphere summer surface temperatures during the Little Ice Age [Lean, GRL 22, 3195, 1995]. We have also analyzed Chinese historical weather records for comparison. Reports of unseasonable cold are classified by the degree of severity: (1) Late (April-June) or early (July-September) killing frosts; (2) Bitter cold/heavy snowfall; and (3) Heavy sustained snowfall, bitter cold with frozen wells, rivers and icebound seas. The latter cases were often widespread and multi-year. All categories occurred most frequently during the coldest part of the Little Ice Age. The Category 3 episodes were in 1652-54, 1656, 1664, 1670-72, 1676-77, 1683, 1688-91, 1716, and 1718-19. For example the Yangtze River and its lakes froze up to 3-4 times in 1650-1700. The coldest period thus coincides with the Maunder Minimum, and is consistent with general circulation model hindcast winter conditions for China [Shindell, Science, 294, 2149, 2001]. There was only one Category 3 episode between the Maunder and Dalton Minima--in 1761 (due to a large volcanic eruption); and two in the Dalton Minimum (1795-1825)--in 1796 and 1814-17. The Sun has gradually brightened since the Dalton Minimum. But the climate of China remained cold through the 19th century, as in the rest of the world, probably due to increased volcanic aerosol loading of the atmosphere [Sato, JGR 98, 22987, 1993]. The climate of China seems to have been warm during the Late 14th-Century Maximum (1350-1410). We have found only one Category 1 episode--in 1393. It then turned cold during the Sporer Minimum (1410-1590). Category 3 episodes occurred in 1453-54, 1493, 1513, 1569, and 1577-78. Lesser ones were also common. Some scientists suggest that the Little Ice Age actually began in the 13th Century, and is comprised of the Wolf (1280-1350), Sporer, Maunder, and Dalton Minima. It and the Little Climate Optimum make up a millennium-long cycle [Broecker, Natural History 101, 6, 4/1992]. The warm Classical Age and cool Dark Ages, the cold Iron Age (1st millennium BC), and warm Bronze Age (2nd and 3rd millennia BC) could be considered still earlier millennial cycles. These trends are generally consistent with carbon-14 deviations from its long-term variations. There is also some historical and archaeological evidence for the early trends, as rhinoceros and elephant herds were abundant along the Yellow River during the Shang dynasty (1600-1100 BC). The tropical fauna and flora have since disappeared, as North China gradually turned cold and arid. We conclude that the climate of China generally follows world trend. The major forcing seems to have been changing solar luminosity on a decadal to millennial timescale. Volcanic eruptions and changing ocean currents also frequently perturbed the climate.

Limnological and climatic environments at Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon during the past 45 000 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradbury, J.P.; Colman, Steven M.; Dean, W.E.

2004-01-01

Upper Klamath Lake, in south-central Oregon, contains long sediment records with well-preserved diatoms and lithological variations that reflect climate-induced limnological changes. These sediment archives complement and extend high resolution terrestrial records along a north-south transect that includes areas influenced by the Aleutian Low and Subtropical High, which control both marine and continental climates in the western United States. The longest and oldest core collected in this study came from the southwest margin of the lake at Caledonia Marsh, and was dated by radiocarbon and tephrochronology to an age of about 45 ka. Paleolimnological interpretations of this core, based upon geochemical and diatom analyses, have been augmented by data from a short core collected from open water environments at nearby Howards Bay and from a 9-m core extending to 15 ka raised from the center of the northwestern part of Upper Klamath Lake. Pre- and full-glacial intervals of the Caledonia Marsh core are characterized and dominated by lithic detrital material. Planktic diatom taxa characteristic of cold-water habitats (Aulacoseira subarctica and A. islandica) alternate with warm-water planktic diatoms (A. ambigua) between 45 and 23 ka, documenting climate changes at millennial scales during oxygen isotope stage (OIS) 3. The full-glacial interval contains mostly cold-water planktic, benthic, and reworked Pliocene lacustrine diatoms (from the surrounding Yonna Formation) that document shallow water conditions in a cold, windy environment. After 15 ka, diatom productivity increased. Organic carbon and biogenic silica became significant sediment components and diatoms that live in the lake today, indicative of warm, eutrophic water, became prominent. Lake levels fell during the mid-Holocene and marsh environments extended over the core site. This interval is characterized by high levels of organic carbon from emergent aquatic vegetation (Scirpus) and by the Mazama ash (7.55 ka), generated by the eruption that created nearby Crater Lake. For a brief time the ash increased the salinity of Upper Klamath Lake. High concentrations of molybdenum, arsenic, and vanadium indicate that Caledonia Marsh was anoxic from about 7 to 5 ka. After the mid-Holocene, shallow, but open-water environments returned to the core site. The sediments became dominated (>80%) by biogenic silica. The open-water cores show analogous but less extreme limnological and climatic changes more typical of mid-lake environments. Millennial-scale lake and climate changes during OIS 3 at Upper Klamath Lake contrast with a similar record of variation at Owens Lake, about 750 km south. When Upper Klamath Lake experienced cold-climate episodes during OIS 3, Owens Lake had warm but wet episodes; the reverse occurred during warmer intervals at Upper Klamath Lake. Such climatic alternations apparently reflect the variable position and strength of the Aleutian Low during the mid-Wisconsin.

Climatic factors associated with peripartum pig deaths during hot and humid or cold seasons.

PubMed

Iida, Ryosuke; Koketsu, Yuzo

2014-08-01

Our objective was to quantify the associations between climatic factors and a death occurrence of peripartum pigs from 16 to 19 weeks after successful service during hot and humid or cold seasons. The study used lifetime records of 93,837 females entered into 98 Japanese commercial herds from 2003 to 2007. The climate data were obtained from 21 weather stations close to the studied herds. Average daily maximum (HT) and minimum temperature (LT), and relative humidity for week 15 of gestation for each pregnant pig were coordinated with the respective pig's performance data. Multilevel logistic regression models were applied to two of the three separate datasets. One dataset included females due to farrow during the hot and humid season (June-September), and another comprised females due to farrow during the cold season (December-March). Of the 8381 females that died throughout the year, 11.5% of pregnant pigs died between 16 and 17 weeks after service, and 44.3% of farrowed females subsequently died from 16 to 19 weeks after service. Mean (ranges) HT in the hot and humid season and LT in the cold season were 28.7 (13.4-39.8) °C and 1.6 (-14.8 to 17.6) °C, respectively. Means of relative humidity in the hot and humid season and cold season were 73.6 (35-98)% and 64.9 (21-99)%, respectively. In the hot and humid season, a higher HT was associated with a higher occurrence of death for parity 0-1 females (P<0.05), but not for parity 2 or higher sows (P≥0.38). The odds ratio was 1.030 (95% confidence intervals: 1.005-1.056) for HT in parity 0-1 females. Also, higher relative humidity was associated with a higher occurrence of death for parity 0-3 females (P<0.05), but not parity 4 or higher sows (P≥0.21). In the cold season, a higher occurrence of death of parity 4 or higher sows was associated with lower LT (P<0.05). Also, the occurrence of death of parity 6 or higher sows was associated with higher relative humidity in the cold season (P<0.05). For parity 0-3 females, there were no associations between the occurrences of death and either LT or relative humidity during the cold season (P≥0.11). Therefore, it is recommended to install cooling systems and thick insulation to prevent increases in occurrences of pig deaths due to HT or LT. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Are glendonites reliable indicators of cold conditions? Evidence from the Lower Cretaceous of Spitsbergen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vickers, Madeleine; Price, Gregory; Watkinson, Matthew; Jerrett, Rhodri

2017-04-01

Glendonites are pseudomorphs after the mineral ikaite, and have been found in marine sediments throughout geological time. Ikaite is a metastable, hydrated form of calcium carbonate, which is only stable under specific conditions: between -2 and +5 °C, and with high alkalinity and phosphate concentrations. Glendonites are often associated with cold climates due to the strong temperature control on ikaite growth, and the coincidence in the geological record with episodes of global cooling. Glendonites are found in the Lower Cretaceous succession in Spitsbergen. During the Early Cretaceous, Spitsbergen was at a palaeolatitude of 60°N, and was part of a shallow epicontinental sea that formed during the Mesozoic as Atlantic rifting propagated northwards. Though the Early Cretaceous was generally characterised by greenhouse climate conditions, episodic cold snaps occurred during the Valanginian (the "Weissert Event") and during Aptian-Albian. Using high resolution carbon-isotope stratigraphy, we show that the first occurrences of glendonites are in the upper Lower Hauterivian and in the very upper Upper Hauterivian, stratigraphically higher than the Valanginian cooling event. Glendonites are also found in horizons in the Upper Aptian, coincident with the Aptian-Albian cold snap. Petrological analysis of the glendonite structure reveals differences between the Hauterivian and Aptian glendonites, with evidence for multiple diagenetic phases of growth in the Hauterivian glendonites, suggesting oscillating chemical conditions. This evidence suggests that local environmental conditions may have a stronger control on glendonite formation and preservation than global climate. We present a new model for ikaite growth and slow transformation to glendonite in marine sediments, which points to a more complex suite of diagenetic transformations than previously modelled. Furthermore, we critically assess whether such pseudomorphs after marine sedimentary ikaite may be indicators of past cold water conditions based on evidence from combined sedimentological, stratigraphic, petrological and geochemical techniques.

Differentially expressed drought-responsive genes in Malus sieversii roots may contribute to this species' adaptation to arid environments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding naturally evolved adaptation to arid climates may be a key factor in developing crops that can thrive during extreme climate fluctuations. Malus sieversii (Ledeb.) M. Roem. is a wild apple species that has adapted to harsh environments in Kazakhstan, including extreme cold and dry reg...

Climate vulnerability of native cold-water salmonids in the Northern Rockies Region [Chapter 5

Treesearch

Michael K. Young; Daniel J. Isaak; Scott Spaulding; Cameron A. Thomas; Scott A. Barndt; Matthew C. Groce; Dona Horan; David E. Nagel

2018-01-01

During the 21st century, climate change is expected to alter aquatic habitats throughout the Northern Rocky Mountains, intermountain basins, and western Great Plains. Particularly in montane watersheds, direct changes are likely to include warmer water temperatures, earlier snowmelt-driven runoff, earlier declines to summer baseflow, downhill movement of perennial...

Red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) cold hardiness and freezing injury susceptibility. Chapter 18

Treesearch

Donald H. DeHayes; Paul G. Schaberg; G.Richard Strimbeck

2001-01-01

To survive subfreezing winter temperatmes, perennial plant species have evolved tissue-specific mechanisms to undergo changes in freezing tolerance that parallel seasonal variations in climate. As such, most northern temperate tree species, including conifers, are adapted to the habitat and climatic conditions within their natural ranges and suffer little or no...

Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment

PubMed Central

Huynen, Maud M. T. E.; Martens, Pim

2015-01-01

Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981–2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAFheat) and cold (PAFcold), by combining observed temperature–mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI’14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%–7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%–2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050—accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend—show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments. PMID:26512680

The effect of landscape complexity and microclimate on the thermal tolerance of a pest insect.

PubMed

Alford, Lucy; Tougeron, Kévin; Pierre, Jean-Sébastien; Burel, Françoise; van Baaren, Joan

2017-03-21

Landscape changes are known to exacerbate the impacts of climate change. As such, understanding the combined effect of climate and landscape on agroecosystems is vital if we are to maintain the function of agroecosystems. This study aimed to elucidate the effects of agricultural landscape complexity on the microclimate and thermal tolerance of an aphid pest to better understand how landscape and climate may interact to affect the thermal tolerance of pest species within the context of global climate change. Meteorological data were measured at the landscape level, and cereal aphids (Sitobion avenae, Metopolophium dirhodum and Rhopalosiphum padi) sampled, from contrasting landscapes (simple and complex) in winter 2013/2014 and spring 2014 in cereal fields of Brittany, France. Aphids were returned to the laboratory and the effect of landscape of origin on aphid cold tolerance (as determined by CT min ) was investigated. Results revealed that local landscape complexity significantly affected microclimate, with simple homogenous landscapes being on average warmer, but with greater temperature variation. Landscape complexity was shown to impact aphid cold tolerance, with aphids from complex landscapes being more cold tolerant than those from simple landscapes in both winter and spring, but with differences among species. This study highlights that future changes to land use could have implications for the thermal tolerance and adaptability of insects. Furthermore, not all insect species respond in a similar way to microhabitat and microclimate, which could disrupt important predator-prey relationships and the ecosystem service they provide. © 2017 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Extreme Temperature Exceedances Change more Rapidly Under Future Warming in Regions of non-Gaussian Short Temperature Distribution Tails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, P. C.; Neelin, J. D.; Meyerson, J.

2017-12-01

Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian warm and cold side temperature distribution tails are shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in the current climate. Under such conditions, warming may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were close to Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short warm side tail would experience a greater increase in extreme warm exceedances compared to if the distribution were Gaussian. Similarly, for a location with a short cold side tail, a uniform warm shift would result in a rapid decrease in extreme cold exceedances. Both scenarios carry major societal and environmental implications including but not limited to negative impacts on human and ecosystem health, agriculture, and the economy. It is therefore important for climate models to be able to realistically reproduce short tails in simulations of historical climate in order to boost confidence in projections of future temperature extremes. Overall, climate models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project capture many of the principal observed regions of short tails. This suggests the underlying dynamics and physics occur on scales resolved by the models, and helps build confidence in model projections of extremes. Furthermore, most GCMs show more rapid changes in exceedances of extreme temperature thresholds in regions of short tails. Results therefore suggest that the shape of the tails of the underlying temperature distribution is an indicator of how rapidly a location will experience changes to extreme temperature occurrence under future warming.

Combining wood anatomy and stable isotope variations in a 600-year multi-parameter climate reconstruction from Corsican black pine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szymczak, Sonja; Hetzer, Timo; Bräuning, Achim; Joachimski, Michael M.; Leuschner, Hanns-Hubert; Kuhlemann, Joachim

2014-10-01

We present a new multi-parameter dataset from Corsican black pine growing on the island of Corsica in the Western Mediterranean basin covering the period AD 1410-2008. Wood parameters measured include tree-ring width, latewood width, earlywood width, cell lumen area, cell width, cell wall thickness, modelled wood density, as well as stable carbon and oxygen isotopes. We evaluated the relationships between different parameters and determined the value of the dataset for climate reconstructions. Correlation analyses revealed that carbon isotope ratios are influenced by cell parameters determining cell size, whereas oxygen isotope ratios are influenced by cell parameters determining the amount of transportable water in the xylem. A summer (June to August) precipitation reconstruction dating back to AD 1185 was established based on tree-ring width. No long-term trends or pronounced periods with extreme high/low precipitation are recorded in our reconstruction, indicating relatively stable moisture conditions over the entire time period. By comparing the precipitation reconstruction with a summer temperature reconstruction derived from the carbon isotope chronologies, we identified summers with extreme climate conditions, i.e. warm-dry, warm-wet, cold-dry and cold-wet. Extreme climate conditions during summer months were found to influence cell parameter characteristics. Cold-wet summers promote the production of broad latewood composed of wide and thin-walled tracheids, while warm-wet summers promote the production of latewood with small thick-walled cells. The presented dataset emphasizes the potential of multi-parameter wood analysis from one tree species over long time scales.

Applicability of AgMERRA Forcing Dataset to Fill Gaps in Historical in-situ Meteorological Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bannayan, M.; Lashkari, A.; Zare, H.; Asadi, S.; Salehnia, N.

2015-12-01

Integrated assessment studies of food production systems use crop models to simulate the effects of climate and socio-economic changes on food security. Climate forcing data is one of those key inputs of crop models. This study evaluated the performance of AgMERRA climate forcing dataset to fill gaps in historical in-situ meteorological data for different climatic regions of Iran. AgMERRA dataset intercompared with in- situ observational dataset for daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation during 1980-2010 periods via Root Mean Square error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE) for 17 stations in four climatic regions included humid and moderate, cold, dry and arid, hot and humid. Moreover, probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function compared between model and observed data. The results of measures of agreement between AgMERRA data and observed data demonstrated that there are small errors in model data for all stations. Except for stations which are located in cold regions, model data in the other stations illustrated under-prediction for daily maximum temperature and precipitation. However, it was not significant. In addition, probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function showed the same trend for all stations between model and observed data. Therefore, the reliability of AgMERRA dataset is high to fill gaps in historical observations in different climatic regions of Iran as well as it could be applied as a basis for future climate scenarios.

The Climate Science Special Report: Summary of Findings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D. J.

2017-12-01

As a prelude to the 4th National Climate Assessment, the Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) is being developed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the science underlying the changes occurring in the Earth's climate system, with a special focus on the United States. To summarize some of the findings, the science is clear—the climate on our planet, including the United States, is changing, changing much more rapidly than occurs naturally, and it is happening primarily because of human activities, especially from our use of fossil fuels but also from land use change. Observational evidence for a changing climate abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans. Documented changes include surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; disappearing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; and rising sea level. Severe weather is becoming more intense. Heatwaves have become more frequent in the United States since the 1960s, while extreme cold temperatures and cold waves are less frequent. Heavy rainfall is increasing in intensity and frequency across the United States and globally. All of these trends are expected to continue. The Earth's climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. Global average sea levels are expected to continue to rise. Many lines of evidence demonstrate that it is extremely likely (95% or greater likelihood) that human activities have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. This presentation summarizes key findings from the CSSR.

Evaluation of CORDEX-Arctic daily precipitation and temperature-based climate indices over Canadian Arctic land areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaconescu, Emilia Paula; Mailhot, Alain; Brown, Ross; Chaumont, Diane

2018-03-01

This study focuses on the evaluation of daily precipitation and temperature climate indices and extremes simulated by an ensemble of 12 Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the ARCTIC-CORDEX experiment with surface observations in the Canadian Arctic from the Adjusted Historical Canadian Climate Dataset. Five global reanalyses products (ERA-Interim, JRA55, MERRA, CFSR and GMFD) are also included in the evaluation to assess their potential for RCM evaluation in data sparse regions. The study evaluated the means and annual anomaly distributions of indices over the 1980-2004 dataset overlap period. The results showed that RCM and reanalysis performance varied with the climate variables being evaluated. Most RCMs and reanalyses were able to simulate well climate indices related to mean air temperature and hot extremes over most of the Canadian Arctic, with the exception of the Yukon region where models displayed the largest biases related to topographic effects. Overall performance was generally poor for indices related to cold extremes. Likewise, only a few RCM simulations and reanalyses were able to provide realistic simulations of precipitation extreme indicators. The multi-reanalysis ensemble provided superior results to individual datasets for climate indicators related to mean air temperature and hot extremes, but not for other indicators. These results support the use of reanalyses as reference datasets for the evaluation of RCM mean air temperature and hot extremes over northern Canada, but not for cold extremes and precipitation indices.

Characteristics of organic soil in black spruce forests: implications for the application of land surface and ecosystem models in cold regions

Treesearch

Shuhua Yi; Kristen Manies; Jennifer Harden; David McGuire

2009-01-01

Soil organic layers (OL) play an important role in land-atmosphere exchanges of water, energy and carbon in cold environments. The proper implementation of OL in land surface and ecosystem models is important for predicting dynamic responses to climate warming. Based on the analysis of OL samples of black spruce (Picea mariana), we recommend that...

To Be Black, & Gifted & Red: Cold War Period Yields New, Provocative Ground for Contemporary Scholars

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keels, Crystal L.

2004-01-01

Today's climate of supercharged patriotism and apparent intolerance for comment or critique calls to mind an earlier period of U.S. history. The Cold War that began in the mid-to late-1940s, along with McCarthyism and the anti-communist movement in the early 1950s, created an atmosphere of national hysteria and paranoia. For the past decade,…

Hsp60 expression profiles in the reef-building coral Seriatopora caliendrum subjected to heat and cold shock regimes.

PubMed

Seveso, Davide; Montano, Simone; Strona, Giovanni; Orlandi, Ivan; Galli, Paolo; Vai, Marina

2016-08-01

Climate changes have increased the intensity/frequency of extreme thermal events, which represent serious threats to the health of reef-building corals. Since the vulnerability of corals exposed to thermal stresses are related to their ability to regulate Heat shock proteins (Hsps), we have analyzed together the time related expression profiles of the mitochondrial Hsp60 and the associated changes in tissue pigmentation in Seriatopora caliendrum subjected to 48 h of heat and cold treatments characterized by moderate (±2 °C) and severe (±6 °C) shocks. For the first time, an Hsp60 response was observed in a scleractinian coral exposed to cold stresses. Furthermore, the Hsp60 modulations and the changes in the tissue coloration were found to be specific for each treatment. A strong down-regulation at the end of the treatments was observed following both the severe shocks, but only the severe heat stress led to bleaching in concert with the lowest levels of Hsp60, suggesting that a severe heat shock can be more deleterious than an exposure to a severe cold temperature. On the contrary, a moderate cold stress seems to be more harmful than a moderate temperature increase, which could allow coral acclimation. Our results can provide a potential framework for understanding the physiological tolerance of corals under possible future climate changes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cold Tolerance of Mountain Pine Beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Eggs From the Historic and Expanded Ranges.

PubMed

Bleiker, K P; Smith, G D; Humble, L M

2017-10-01

Winter mortality is expected to be a key factor determining the ability of mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), to expand its range in Canada. We determined the mortality rate and supercooling points of eggs from the beetle's historic range in southern British Columbia as well as the recently expanded range in north-central Alberta and tested if eggs require an extended period of chilling to reach their maximum cold tolerance. We found no effect of population source or acclimation time on egg cold tolerance. Although 50% of eggs can survive brief exposure to -20.5 °C (LT50), storage at 0.3 °C and -7.5 °C for 59 d resulted in 50% and 100% mortality, respectively. Our results indicate that eggs suffer significant prefreeze mortality and are not well-adapted to overwintering: eggs are unlikely to survive winter throughout much of the beetle's range. Our results provide information that can be used to help model the climatic suitability of mountain pine beetle, including how changes in seasonality associated with new or changing climates may affect winter survival. In addition to lower lethal temperatures, it is critical that the duration of exposure to sublethal cold temperatures are considered in a comprehensive index of cold tolerance and incorporated into survival and population models. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Winter cold-tolerance thresholds in field-grown Miscanthus hybrid rhizomes.

PubMed

Peixoto, Murilo de Melo; Friesen, Patrick Calvin; Sage, Rowan F

2015-07-01

The cold tolerance of winter-dormant rhizomes was evaluated in diploid, allotriploid, and allotetraploid hybrids of Miscanthus sinensis and Miscanthus sacchariflorus grown in a field setting. Two artificial freezing protocols were tested: one lowered the temperature continuously by 1°C h(-1) to the treatment temperature and another lowered the temperature in stages of 24h each to the treatment temperature. Electrolyte leakage and rhizome sprouting assays after the cold treatment assessed plant and tissue viability. Results from the continuous-cooling trial showed that Miscanthus rhizomes from all genotypes tolerated temperatures as low as -6.5 °C; however, the slower, staged-cooling procedure enabled rhizomes from two diploid lines to survive temperatures as low as -14 °C. Allopolyploid genotypes showed no change in the lethal temperature threshold between the continuous and staged-cooling procedure, indicating that they have little ability to acclimate to subzero temperatures. The results demonstrated that rhizomes from diploid Miscanthus lines have superior cold tolerance that could be exploited to improve performance in more productive polyploid lines. With expected levels of soil insulation, low winter air temperatures should not harm rhizomes of tolerant diploid genotypes of Miscanthus in temperate to sub-boreal climates (up to 60°N); however, the observed winter cold in sub-boreal climates could harm rhizomes of existing polyploid varieties of Miscanthus and thus reduce stand performance. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology.

Effect of cold indoor environment on physical performance of older women living in the community.

PubMed

Lindemann, Ulrich; Oksa, Juha; Skelton, Dawn A; Beyer, Nina; Klenk, Jochen; Zscheile, Julia; Becker, Clemens

2014-07-01

the effects of cold on older persons' body and mind are not well documented, but with an increased number of older people with decreasing physical performance, these possible effects need to be understood. to investigate the effect of cold indoor environment on physical performance of older women. cross-sectional experimental study with two test conditions. movement laboratory in a climate chamber. eighty-eight community-dwelling, cognitively unimpaired older women (mean age 78 years). participants were exposed to moderately cold (15°C) and warm/normal (25°C) temperature in a climate chamber in random order with an interval of 1 week. The assessment protocol included leg extensor power (Nottingham Power Rig), sit-to-stand performance velocity (linear encoder), gait speed, walk-ratio (i.e. step length/cadence on an instrumented walk way), maximal quadriceps and hand grip strength. physical performance was lower in 15°C room temperature compared with 25°C room temperature for leg extensor power (P < 0.0001), sit-to-stand performance velocity (P < 0.0001), gait speed (P < 0.0001), walk-ratio (P = 0.016) and maximal quadriceps strength (P = 0.015), but not for hand grip strength. in healthy older women a moderately cold indoor environment decreased important physical performance measures necessary for independent living. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Protistan Diversity in the Arctic: A Case of Paleoclimate Shaping Modern Biodiversity?

PubMed Central

Stoeck, Thorsten; Kasper, Jennifer; Bunge, John; Leslin, Chesley; Ilyin, Valya; Epstein, Slava

2007-01-01

Background The impact of climate on biodiversity is indisputable. Climate changes over geological time must have significantly influenced the evolution of biodiversity, ultimately leading to its present pattern. Here we consider the paleoclimate data record, inferring that present-day hot and cold environments should contain, respectively, the largest and the smallest diversity of ancestral lineages of microbial eukaryotes. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigate this hypothesis by analyzing an original dataset of 18S rRNA gene sequences from Western Greenland in the Arctic, and data from the existing literature on 18S rRNA gene diversity in hydrothermal vent, temperate sediments, and anoxic water column communities. Unexpectedly, the community from the cold environment emerged as one of the richest observed to date in protistan species, and most diverse in ancestral lineages. Conclusions/Significance This pattern is consistent with natural selection sweeps on aerobic non-psychrophilic microbial eukaryotes repeatedly caused by low temperatures and global anoxia of snowball Earth conditions. It implies that cold refuges persisted through the periods of greenhouse conditions, which agrees with some, although not all, current views on the extent of the past global cooling and warming events. We therefore identify cold environments as promising targets for microbial discovery. PMID:17710128

A 2000-yr-long multi-proxy lacustrine record from eastern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada reveals first millennium AD cold period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Elizabeth K.; Briner, Jason P.; Axford, Yarrow; Francis, Donna R.; Miller, Gifford H.; Walker, Ian R.

2011-05-01

We generate a multi-proxy sub-centennial-scale reconstruction of environmental change during the past two millennia from Itilliq Lake, Baffin Island, Arctic Canada. Our reconstruction arises from a finely subsectioned 210Pb- and 14C-dated surface sediment core and includes measures of organic matter (e.g., chlorophyll a; carbon-nitrogen ratio) and insect (Diptera: Chironomidae) assemblages. Within the past millennium, the least productive, and by inference coldest, conditions occurred ca. AD 1700-1850, late in the Little Ice Age. The 2000-yr sediment record also reveals an episode of reduced organic matter deposition during the 6th-7th century AD; combined with the few other records comparable in resolution that span this time interval from Baffin Island, we suggest that this cold episode was experienced regionally. A comparable cold climatic episode occurred in Alaska and western Canada at this time, suggesting that the first millennium AD cold climate anomaly may have occurred throughout the Arctic. Dramatic increases in aquatic biological productivity at multiple trophic levels are indicated by increased chlorophyll a concentrations since AD 1800 and chironomid concentrations since AD 1900, both of which have risen to levels unprecedented over the past 2000 yr.

Onset and Evolution of Southern Annular Mode-Like Changes at Centennial Timescale.

PubMed

Moreno, P I; Vilanova, I; Villa-Martínez, R; Dunbar, R B; Mucciarone, D A; Kaplan, M R; Garreaud, R D; Rojas, M; Moy, C M; De Pol-Holz, R; Lambert, F

2018-02-22

The Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) are the surface expression of geostrophic winds that encircle the southern mid-latitudes. In conjunction with the Southern Ocean, they establish a coupled system that not only controls climate in the southern third of the world, but is also closely connected to the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and CO 2 degassing from the deep ocean. Paradoxically, little is known about their behavior since the last ice age and relationships with mid-latitude glacier history and tropical climate variability. Here we present a lake sediment record from Chilean Patagonia (51°S) that reveals fluctuations of the low-level SWW at mid-latitudes, including strong westerlies during the Antarctic Cold Reversal, anomalously low intensity during the early Holocene, which was unfavorable for glacier growth, and strong SWW since ~7.5 ka. We detect nine positive Southern Annular Mode-like events at centennial timescale since ~5.8 ka that alternate with cold/wet intervals favorable for glacier expansions (Neoglaciations) in southern Patagonia. The correspondence of key features of mid-latitude atmospheric circulation with shifts in tropical climate since ~10 ka suggests that coherent climatic shifts in these regions have driven climate change in vast sectors of the Southern Hemisphere at centennial and millennial timescales.

Climate and foraging mode explain interspecific variation in snake metabolic rates.

PubMed

Dupoué, Andréaz; Brischoux, François; Lourdais, Olivier

2017-11-29

The energy cost of self-maintenance is a critical facet of life-history strategies. Clarifying the determinant of interspecific variation in metabolic rate (MR) at rest is important to understand and predict ecological patterns such as species distributions or responses to climatic changes. We examined variation of MR in snakes, a group characterized by a remarkable diversity of activity rates and a wide distribution. We collated previously published MR data ( n = 491 observations) measured in 90 snake species at different trial temperatures. We tested for the effects of metabolic state (standard MR (SMR) versus resting MR (RMR)), foraging mode (active versus ambush foragers) and climate (temperature and precipitation) while accounting for non-independence owing to phylogeny, body mass and thermal dependence. We found that RMR was 40% higher than SMR, and that active foragers have higher MR than species that ambush their prey. We found that MR was higher in cold environments, supporting the metabolic cold adaptation hypothesis. We also found an additive and positive effect of precipitation on MR suggesting that lower MR in arid environments may decrease dehydration and energetic costs. Altogether, our findings underline the complex influences of climate and foraging mode on MR and emphasize the relevance of these facets to understand the physiological impact of climate change. © 2017 The Author(s).

The regional climate model REMO (v2015) coupled with the 1-D freshwater lake model FLake (v1): Fenno-Scandinavian climate and lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; Markkanen, Tiina; Sieck, Kevin; Jacob, Daniela; Korhonen, Johanna; Räisänen, Petri; Gao, Yao; Ahola, Jaakko; Korhonen, Hannele; Laaksonen, Ari; Kaurola, Jussi

2018-04-01

The regional climate model REMO was coupled with the FLake lake model to include an interactive treatment of lakes. Using this new version, the Fenno-Scandinavian climate and lake characteristics were studied in a set of 35-year hindcast simulations. Additionally, sensitivity tests related to the parameterization of snow albedo were conducted. Our results show that overall the new model version improves the representation of the Fenno-Scandinavian climate in terms of 2 m temperature and precipitation, but the downside is that an existing wintertime cold bias in the model is enhanced. The lake surface water temperature, ice depth and ice season length were analyzed in detail for 10 Finnish, 4 Swedish and 2 Russian lakes and 1 Estonian lake. The results show that the model can reproduce these characteristics with reasonably high accuracy. The cold bias during winter causes overestimation of ice layer thickness, for example, at several of the studied lakes, but overall the values from the model are realistic and represent the lake physics well in a long-term simulation. We also analyzed the snow depth on ice from 10 Finnish lakes and vertical temperature profiles from 5 Finnish lakes and the model results are realistic.

Pollen record of the mid- to late-Holocene centennial climate change on the East coast of South Korea and its influential factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Bing; Yi, Sangheon; Jia, Hongjuan; Nahm, Wook-Hyun; Kim, Jin-Cheul; Lim, Jaesoo; Lee, Jin-Young; Sha, Longbin; Mao, Limi; Yang, Zhongyong; Nakanishi, Toshimichi; Hong, Wan; Li, Zhen

2018-01-01

To understand historical climate change in western Pacific coastal areas, a sediment core (SOJ-2) from the stable sedimentary environment of the Songjiho Lagoon on the east coast of South Korea was obtained for centennial-resolution palynological analysis. The ages of the SOJ-2 core is well controlled by carbon 14 dating with high-resolution accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS), and the results indicated a general warm to cold climate trend from the mid-Holocene to the present, which can be divided into two different stages: a warmer stage between 6842 and 1297 cal yr BP and a colder stage from 1297 cal yr BP to the present, with fluctuations during these stages. The climate was wetter from 6842 to 6227 cal yr BP and 4520 to 1297 cal yr BP and was drier from 6227 to 4520 cal yr BP. The climate changed to cold and dry during the period from 1297-425 cal yr BP. The impact of human activity on the climate began at approximately 1297 cal yr BP and became pronounced starting in 425 cal yr BP. The general cooling trend may represent a response to decreasing solar insolation; however, the relative dryness or wetness of the climate may have been co-determined by westerlies and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The climate had a teleconnection with the North Atlantic region, resulting from changes in solar activity. Nevertheless, EI Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity played an important role in impacting the EASM changes in western Pacific coastal areas.

Impact of chlorophyll bias on the tropical Pacific mean climate in an earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Hyung-Gyu; Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong

2017-12-01

Climate modeling groups nowadays develop earth system models (ESMs) by incorporating biogeochemical processes in their climate models. The ESMs, however, often show substantial bias in simulated marine biogeochemistry which can potentially introduce an undesirable bias in physical ocean fields through biogeophysical interactions. This study examines how and how much the chlorophyll bias in a state-of-the-art ESM affects the mean and seasonal cycle of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST). The ESM used in the present study shows a sizeable positive bias in the simulated tropical chlorophyll. We found that the correction of the chlorophyll bias can reduce the ESM's intrinsic cold SST mean bias in the equatorial Pacific. The biologically-induced cold SST bias is strongly affected by seasonally-dependent air-sea coupling strength. In addition, the correction of chlorophyll bias can improve the annual cycle of SST by up to 25%. This result suggests a possible modeling approach in understanding the two-way interactions between physical and chlorophyll biases by biogeophysical effects.

Lake seasonality across the Tibetan Plateau and their varying relationship with regional mass changes and local hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Yanbin; Yao, Tandong; Yang, Kun; Sheng, Yongwei; Kleinherenbrink, Marcel; Yi, Shuang; Bird, Broxton W.; Zhang, Xiaowen; Zhu, La; Zhang, Guoqing

2017-01-01

The recent growth and deepening of inland lakes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) may be a salient indicator of the consequences of climate change. The seasonal dynamics of these lakes is poorly understood despite this being potentially crucial for disentangling contributions from glacier melt and precipitation, which are all sensitive to climate, to lake water budget. Using in situ observations, satellite altimetry and gravimetry data, we identified two patterns of lake level seasonality. In the central, northern, and northeastern TP, lake levels are characterized by considerable increases during warm seasons and decreases during cold seasons, which is consistent with regional mass changes related to monsoon precipitation and evaporation. In the northwestern TP, however, lake levels exhibit dramatic increases during both warm and cold seasons, which deviate from regional mass changes. This appears to be more connected with high spring snowfall and large summer glacier melt. The variable lake level response to different drivers indicates heterogeneous sensitivity to climate change between the northwestern TP and other regions.

Major advance of South Georgia glaciers during the Antarctic Cold Reversal following extensive sub-Antarctic glaciation

PubMed Central

Graham, Alastair G. C.; Kuhn, Gerhard; Meisel, Ove; Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter; Hodgson, Dominic A.; Ehrmann, Werner; Wacker, Lukas; Wintersteller, Paul; dos Santos Ferreira, Christian; Römer, Miriam; White, Duanne; Bohrmann, Gerhard

2017-01-01

The history of glaciations on Southern Hemisphere sub-polar islands is unclear. Debate surrounds the extent and timing of the last glacial advance and termination on sub-Antarctic South Georgia in particular. Here, using sea-floor geophysical data and marine sediment cores, we resolve the record of glaciation offshore of South Georgia through the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene. We show a sea-bed landform imprint of a shelf-wide last glacial advance and progressive deglaciation. Renewed glacier resurgence in the fjords between c. 15,170 and 13,340 yr ago coincided with a period of cooler, wetter climate known as the Antarctic Cold Reversal, revealing a cryospheric response to an Antarctic climate pattern extending into the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. We conclude that the last glaciation of South Georgia was extensive, and the sensitivity of its glaciers to climate variability during the last termination more significant than implied by previous studies. PMID:28303885

Topographic, latitudinal and climatic distribution of Pinus coulteri: geographic range limits are not at the edge of the climate envelope

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chardon, Nathalie I.; Cornwell, William K.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Ackerly, David D.

2015-01-01

With changing climate, many species are projected to move poleward or to higher elevations to track suitable climates. The prediction that species will move poleward assumes that geographically marginal populations are at the edge of the species' climatic range. We studied Pinus coulteri from the center to the northern (poleward) edge of its range, and examined three scenarios regarding the relationship between the geographic and climatic margins of a species' range. We used herbarium and iNaturalist.org records to identify P. coulteri sites, generated a species distribution model based on temperature, precipitation, climatic water deficit, and actual evapotranspiration, and projected suitability under future climate scenarios. In fourteen populations from the central to northern portions of the range, we conducted field studies and recorded elevation, slope and aspect (to estimate solar insolation) to examine relationships between local and regional distributions. We found that northern populations of P. coulteri do not occupy the cold or wet edge of the species' climatic range; mid-latitude, high elevation populations occupy the cold margin. Aspect and insolation of P. coulteri populations changed significantly across latitudes and elevations. Unexpectedly, northern, low-elevation stands occupy north-facing aspects and receive low insolation, while central, high-elevation stands grow on more south-facing aspects that receive higher insolation. Modeled future climate suitability is projected to be highest in the central, high elevation portion of the species range, and in low-lying coastal regions under some scenarios, with declining suitability in northern areas under most future scenarios. For P. coulteri, the lack of high elevation habitat combined with a major dispersal barrier may limit northward movement in response to a warming climate. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of distinguishing geographically vs. climatically marginal populations, and the importance of quantitative analysis of the realized climate space to understand species range limits.

The European Science Foundation (ESF) Network SEDIFLUX — An introduction and overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beylich, Achim A.; Etienne, Samuel; Etzelmüller, Bernd; Gordeev, Vyacheslav V.; Käyhkö, Jukka; Rachold, Volker; Russell, Andrew J.; Schmidt, Karl-Heinz; Sæmundsson, Þorsteinn; Tweed, Fiona S.; Warburton, Jeff

2006-10-01

Climate change will cause major changes in the Earth surface systems, especially in high-latitude and high-altitude cold environments. Geomorphological processes operating at the Earth's surface, transferring sediments and changing landforms are dependent on climate and will be significantly affected by climate change. More reliable modelling of sediment transfer processes operating under present-day climatic settings is needed to determine the consequences of climate change. It is necessary to collect and to compare data and knowledge from a wide range of different high-latitude and high-altitude cold environments and to develop more standardized methods and approaches for future research on sediment fluxes and relationships between climate and sedimentary transfer processes. In Europe, the wide range of high-latitude and high-altitude cold environments provides great potential to investigate climate-process relationships and to model the effects of climate change by using space for time substitution. The European Science Foundation (ESF) Network (01.01.2004-31.12.2006) "Sedimentary Source-to-Sink-Fluxes in Cold Environments" ( SEDIFLUX) is bringing together leading scientists, young scientists and research teams from different fields. SEDIFLUX forms a framework for an integrated and multidisciplinary investigation of the addressed topic and is a major catalyst for strengthening and extending contacts, collaborative research activities and mobility of scientists in Europe. It also points to areas within Europe that would benefit from wider research collaboration (e.g. Russia, Poland). The SEDIFLUX Steering Committee consists of scientists from seven European countries: Achim A. Beylich, Co-ordinator of SEDIFLUX (Trondheim, Norway), Samuel Etienne (Clermont-Ferrand, France), Bernd Etzelmüller (Oslo, Norway), Vyacheslav V. Gordeev (Moscow, Russia), Jukka Käyhkö (Turku, Finland), Volker Rachold (Potsdam, Germany), Andrew J. Russell (Newcastle, England, UK), Karl-Heinz Schmidt (Halle/S., Germany), Þorsteinn Sæmundsson (Sauðárkrókur, Iceland), Fiona S. Tweed (Staffordshire, England, UK) and Jeff Warburton (Durham, England, UK). SEDIFLUX activities include four Science Meetings: in Sauðárkrókur, Iceland (June 18th-June 21st, 2004), Clermont-Ferrand, France (January 20th-22nd, 2005), Durham, England, UK (December 15th-20th, 2005) and Trondheim, Norway (October 29th-November 1st, 2006), Steering Committee Meetings attached to these Science Meetings, a Session co-organized by SEDIFLUX at the Second European Permafrost Conference, June 12th-17th, 2005, in Potsdam, Germany, publication of Scientific Reports and Abstract Volumes, publication of Special Issues of Journals and of a SEDIFLUX Handbook, creation of a SEDIFLUX Database, an effective diffusion and dissemination of SEDIFLUX activities and outputs by using electronic media (Websites, Newsletters, Forum), invitations of leading experts from other parts of the world, policy makers and land managers to the Science Meetings. The ESF Network SEDIFLUX is organized in four Working Groups: I: Selection of critical test catchments; II: Analysis of geographical and geological settings of test catchments; III: Analysis of present-day fluxes; IV: Integration and data management. The major outputs from the Working Groups will be published in the SEDIFLUX Handbook, including guidelines for future monitoring programmes and a section, which is particularly targeted at end-users. A strong monitoring and operational data collection and more standardized methods provide a baseline for the development of reliable models and for future research in the changing high-latitude and high-altitude cold environments. ESF SEDIFLUX will continue and will be extended as I.A.G./A.I.G. Working Group on Sediment Budgets in Cold Environments (SEDIBUD). Apart from further collaborations and collaborative research activities project and programme applications at both the national and the European level following the three-year ESF Network are discussed and initiated.

Combined installation of electric and heat supply for climatic conditions of Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaisi, Osama Al; Sidenkov, D. V.

2017-11-01

Electricity, heating and cooling are the three main components that make up the energy consumption base in residential, commercial and public buildings around the world. Demand for energy and fuel costs are constantly growing. Combined cooling, heating and power generation or trigeneration can be a promising solution to such a problem, providing an efficient, reliable, flexible, competitive and less harmful alternative to existing heat and cold supply systems. In this paper, scheme of the tri-generation plant on non-aqueous working substances is considered as an installation of a locally centralized electro-heat and cold supply of a typical residential house in a hot climate. The scheme of the combined installation of electro-heat (cold) supply consisted of the vapor power plant and heat pump system on low-boiling working substance for local consumers under the climatic conditions of Iraq is presented. The possibility of using different working substances in the thermodynamic cycles of these units, which will provide better efficiency of such tri-generation systems is shown. The calculations of steam turbine cycles and heat pump part on the selected working substances are conducted. It is proposed to use heat exchangers of plate type as the main exchangers in the combined processing. The developed method of thermal-hydraulic calculation of heat exchangers implemented in MathCad, which allows to evaluate the efficiency of plants of this type using the ε - NTU method. For the selected working substances of the steam part the optimal temperature of heat supply to the steam generator is determined. The results of thermodynamic and technical-economic analysis of the application of various working substances in the “organic” Rankine cycle of the steam turbine unit and the heat pump system of the heat and cold supply system are presented.

Effects of temperature variations on guided waves propagating in composite structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shoja, Siavash; Berbyuk, Viktor; Boström, Anders

2016-04-01

Effects of temperature on guided waves propagating in composite materials is a well-known problem which has been investigated in many studies. The majority of the studies is focused on effects of high temperature. Understanding the effects of low temperature has major importance in composite structures and components which are operating in cold climate conditions such as e.g. wind turbines operating in cold climate regions. In this study first the effects of temperature variations on guided waves propagating in a composite plate is investigated experimentally in a cold climate chamber. The material is a common material used to manufacture rotor blades of wind turbines. The temperature range is 25°C to -25°C and effects of temperature variations on amplitude and phase shift of the received signal are investigated. In order to apply the effects of lowering the temperature on the received signal, the Baseline Signal Stretch (BSS) method is modified and used. The modification is based on decomposing the signal into symmetric and asymmetric modes and applying two different stretch factors on each of them. Finally the results obtained based on the new method is compared with the results of application of BSS with one stretch factor and experimental measurements. Comparisons show that an improvement is obtained using the BSS with the mode decomposition method at temperature variations of more than 25°C.

Robust changes in the socio-climate risk over CONUS by mid 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.; Batibeniz, F.; Alifa, M.; Pagán, B. R.; Bonds, B. W.; Pal, J. S.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Preston, B. L.

2017-12-01

Using high-resolution near-term ensemble projections of hydro-climatic changes, we investigate impacts of climate change on natural and human systems across the CONUS. Climate projections are based a hybrid downscaling approach where a combination of regional and hydrological models are used to downscales 11 Global Climate Models from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project to 4km horizontal grid spacing for 41 years in the historical period (1965-2005) and 41 years in the near-term future period (2010-2050) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Should emissions continue to rise, climatic changes will likely intensify the regional hydrological cycle over CONUS through the acceleration of the historical trends in cold, warm and wet extremes. Our results show robust changes in the occurrence of severe weather conditions and in the likelihood of ice, freezing rain and snowstorms that may have disruptive impact on large human population across the U.S. More summer like conditions will also drive increase in cooling demands and a net increase in the energy consumption over many regions. We further use an integrated vulnerability index that combines human exposure to different climate extremes (hot, cold, wet and dry) and changes in socioeconomic pathways (due to changes in population and income levels), to reveal that future exposure to potentially damaging climatic conditions will likely increase manifold for population living in major urban centers in California, Texas, Florida, Michigan, Illinois and Northeast. With the current trajectory of emissions, these results warrant that a large human population across the U.S. may feel the impacts of climate change within its lifespan.

Interweaving climate research and public understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, A. K.

2016-12-01

For the past 10 years I have been using research into land-atmosphere-cloud coupling to address Vermont's need to understand climate change, and develop plans for greater resilience in the face of increasing severe weather. The research side has shown that the fraction of days with snow cover determines the cold season climate, because snow acts as a fast climate switch between non-overlapping climates with and without snow cover. Clouds play opposite roles in warm and cold seasons: surface cooling in summer and warming in winter. The later fall freeze-up and earlier spring ice-out on lakes, coupled to the earlier spring phenology, are clear markers both of a warming climate, as well as the large interannual variability. Severe flooding events have come with large-scale quasi-stationary weather patterns. This past decade I have given 230 talks to schools, business and professional groups, as well as legislative committees and state government. I have written 80 environmental columns for two Vermont newspapers, as part of a weekly series I helped start in 2008. Commentaries and interviews on radio and TV enable me to explain directly the issues we face, as the burning of fossil fuels destabilizes the climate system. The public in Vermont is eager to learn and understand these issues since many have roots in the land; while professional groups need all the information and guidance possible to prepare for the future. My task as a scientist is to map out what we know in ways that can readily be grasped in terms of past experience, even though the climate system is already moving outside this range - and at the same time outline general principles and hopeful strategies for dealing with global and local climate change.

Large Scale Relationship between Aquatic Insect Traits and Climate.

PubMed

Bhowmik, Avit Kumar; Schäfer, Ralf B

2015-01-01

Climate is the predominant environmental driver of freshwater assemblage pattern on large spatial scales, and traits of freshwater organisms have shown considerable potential to identify impacts of climate change. Although several studies suggest traits that may indicate vulnerability to climate change, the empirical relationship between freshwater assemblage trait composition and climate has been rarely examined on large scales. We compared the responses of the assumed climate-associated traits from six grouping features to 35 bioclimatic indices (~18 km resolution) for five insect orders (Diptera, Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera and Trichoptera), evaluated their potential for changing distribution pattern under future climate change and identified the most influential bioclimatic indices. The data comprised 782 species and 395 genera sampled in 4,752 stream sites during 2006 and 2007 in Germany (~357,000 km² spatial extent). We quantified the variability and spatial autocorrelation in the traits and orders that are associated with the combined and individual bioclimatic indices. Traits of temperature preference grouping feature that are the products of several other underlying climate-associated traits, and the insect order Ephemeroptera exhibited the strongest response to the bioclimatic indices as well as the highest potential for changing distribution pattern. Regarding individual traits, insects in general and ephemeropterans preferring very cold temperature showed the highest response, and the insects preferring cold and trichopterans preferring moderate temperature showed the highest potential for changing distribution. We showed that the seasonal radiation and moisture are the most influential bioclimatic aspects, and thus changes in these aspects may affect the most responsive traits and orders and drive a change in their spatial distribution pattern. Our findings support the development of trait-based metrics to predict and detect climate-related changes of freshwater assemblages.

Xerosis

MedlinePlus

... Causes Dry skin can be caused by: The climate, such as cold, dry winter air or hot, ... Medical Dermatology, Associate Professor of Dermatology, Mayo Medical School, Scottsdale, AZ. Also reviewed by David Zieve, MD, ...

General Procedure for Protective Cooling and Equipment Evaluations Relative to Heat and Cold Stress

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

climatic chamber housing the manikin. The most widely accepted test procedures for the operation of a TM are published by the American Society for...describes measurement of the clo value of a complete clothing ensemble. It requires a TM surface temperature of 35ºC and a climatic chamber controlled...Clothing Using a Sweating Manikin” (1) measures the im of a complete clothing ensemble. It requires a TM surface temperature of 35ºC and a climatic

Launchers and Improved Components for 4.5 in. Rockets

DTIC Science & Technology

1946-02-09

Engagements 132 Loading 133 Release 133 "Dig In" Characteristic 133 Cushioning 134 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Conttd) PAGE *Overshooting" in Loading 134 Effect on... loaded for a cold climate and used in a hot climate without removing some of the propellent powder there will be danger of its bursting. Conversely, if...it is loaded for use in a hot climate, there vwill not be sufficient powder for firing at low temperature. A regulating pressure device that would

Climatically driven loss of calcium in steppe soil as a sink for atmospheric carbon

Treesearch

A.G. Lapenis; G.B. Lawrence; S.W. Bailey; B.F. Aparin; A.I. Shiklomanov; N.A. Speranskaya; M.S. Torn; M. Calef

2008-01-01

During the last several thousand years the semi-arid, cold climate of the Russian steppe formed highly fertile soils rich in organic carbon and calcium (classified as Chernozems in the Russian system). Analysis of archived soil samples collected in Kemannaya Steppe Preserve in 1920, 1947, 1970, and fresh samples collected in 1998 indicated that the native steppe...

[Meteoadaptogenic properties of peptide drugs in healthy volunteers].

PubMed

Shabanov, P D; Ganapol'skiĭ, V P; Aleksandrov, P V

2007-01-01

The meteoadaptogenic properties of a series of drugs with peptide (cortexin, noopept, dilept) and nonpeptide (vinpotropil) structure were investigated in a climate thermobarocomplex (Tabay, Japan) on a group of healthy volunteers aged 20-24. All the studied drugs produced a meteoadaptogenic action, the extent of which depended on the environmental test conditions (overcooling, overheating, hypobaric hypoxia). Vinpotropil, optimizing a physiological component of the functional state, can be recommended as a meteoadaptogen for both cold and hot climate as well as for hypobaric hypoxia, where it improved the psychological component of the functional state. Cortexin is qualified as an adaptogen and actoprotector only for hypobaric hypoxia conditions (uplands). Noopept, affecting positively a psychological component of the functional state, can be used for rapid adaptation to both cold and hot climate. In the hot climate, noopept also enhanced the physical work capacity. Dilept mostly elevated the psychological component of the functional state and can be considered as a psychomotor enhancer and adaptogen. Therefore, all the drugs studied (vinpotropil, cortexin, noopept and dilept) can be recommended as the agents producing activation, support and recovery of the physical and psychological efficiency under rapidly changing environment conditions.

Analysis of the El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation variability and malaria in the Estado Sucre, Venezuela.

PubMed

Delgado-Petrocelli, Laura; Córdova, Karenia; Camardiel, Alberto; Aguilar, Víctor H; Hernández, Denise; Ramos, Santiago

2012-09-01

The last decade has seen an unprecedented, worldwide acceleration of environmental and climate changes. These processes impact the dynamics of natural systems, which include components associated with human communities such as vector-borne diseases. The dynamics of environmental and climate variables, altered by global change as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, affect the distribution of many tropical diseases. Complex systems, e.g. the El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in which environmental variables operate synergistically, can provoke the reemergence and emergence of vector-borne diseases at new sites. This research investigated the influence of ENSO events on malaria incidence by determining the relationship between climate variations, expressed as warm, cold and neutral phases, and their relation to the number of malaria cases in some north-eastern municipalities of Venezuela (Estado Sucre) during the period 1990-2000. Significant differences in malaria incidence were found, particularly in the La Niña ENSO phases (cold) of moderate intensity. These findings should be taken into account for surveillance and control in the future as they shed light on important indicators that can lead to reduced vulnerability to malaria.

Millennial-scale northern Hemisphere Atlantic-Pacific climate teleconnections in the earliest Middle Pleistocene.

PubMed

Hyodo, Masayuki; Bradák, Balázs; Okada, Makoto; Katoh, Shigehiro; Kitaba, Ikuko; Dettman, David L; Hayashi, Hiroki; Kumazawa, Koyo; Hirose, Kotaro; Kazaoka, Osamu; Shikoku, Kizuku; Kitamura, Akihisa

2017-08-30

Suborbital-scale climate variations, possibly caused by solar activity, are observed in the Holocene and last-glacial climates. Recently published bicentennial-resolution paleoceanic environmental records reveal millennial-scale high-amplitude oscillations postdating the last geomagnetic reversal in the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 19 interglacial. These oscillations, together with decoupling of post-reversal warming from maximum sea-level highstand in mid-latitudes, are key features for understanding the climate system of MIS 19 and the following Middle Pleistocene. It is unclear whether the oscillations are synchronous, or have the same driver as Holocene cycles. Here we present a high resolution record of western North Pacific submarine anoxia and sea surface bioproductivity from the Chiba Section, central Japan. The record reveals many oxic events in MIS 19, coincident with cold intervals, or with combined cold and sea-level fall events. This allows detailed correlations with paleoceanic records from the mid-latitude North Atlantic and Osaka Bay, southwest Japan. We find that the millennial-scale oscillations are synchronous between East and West hemispheres. In addition, during the two warmest intervals, bioproductivity follows the same pattern of change modulated by bicentennial cycles that are possibly related to solar activity.

Permafrost thaw in a nested groundwater-flow system

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenzie, Jeffery M.; Voss, Clifford I.

2013-01-01

Groundwater flow in cold regions containing permafrost accelerates climate-warming-driven thaw and changes thaw patterns. Simulation analyses of groundwater flow and heat transport with freeze/thaw in typical cold-regions terrain with nested flow indicate that early thaw rate is particularly enhanced by flow, the time when adverse environmental impacts of climate-warming-induced permafrost loss may be severest. For the slowest climate-warming rate predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), once significant groundwater flow begins, thick permafrost layers can vanish in several hundred years, but survive over 1,000 years where flow is minimal. Large-scale thaw depends mostly on the balance of heat advection and conduction in the supra-permafrost zone. Surface-water bodies underlain by open taliks allow slow sub-permafrost flow, with lesser influence on regional thaw. Advection dominance over conduction depends on permeability and topography. Groundwater flow around permafrost and flow through permafrost impact thaw differently; the latter enhances early thaw rate. Air-temperature seasonality also increases early thaw. Hydrogeologic heterogeneity and topography strongly affect thaw rates/patterns. Permafrost controls the groundwater/surface-water-geomorphology system; hence, prediction and mitigation of impacts of thaw on ecology, chemical exports and infrastructure require improved hydrogeology/permafrost characterization and understanding

Climate change and social vicissitudes in China over the past two millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jun; Su, Yun; Fang, Xiuqi

2016-09-01

The relation between climate change and historical rhythms has long been discussed. However, this type of study still faces the lack of high-resolution data concerning long-term socio-economic processes. In this study, we collected 1586 items of direct and proffered evidence from 29 Chinese history books. We used semantic analysis to reconstruct a quantitative series of the social vicissitudes of the past 2000 yr with a 10-yr resolution to express the phase transition of the social vicissitudes of the dynasties in China. Our reconstruction demonstrates that social vicissitudes have clear cyclical features on multiple time scales. Analysis of the association of social rise and fall with climate change indicates that temperature displayed more significant effects on social vicissitudes in the long term, while precipitation displayed more significant effects on the social vicissitudes in the short term. There are great overlaps between social and climatic variables around the predominant or periodic bands. Social rise mostly occurred in the centennial-scale warm periods, whereas social decline mostly occurred in the centennial-scale cold periods. Under warm-wet conditions, social rise occurred over 57% of the time; under cold-dry conditions, the social decline occurred over 66% of the time.

Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Selbig, William R.

2015-01-01

The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2 °C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery.

The climate of early Mars: New insights from climate modeling and geological intercomparisons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wordsworth, R. D.

2016-12-01

Early Mars has abundant evidence for running water 3-4 Ga, but the extent to which it was continuously warm and wet, with a northern ocean, remains a continuing source of controversy. Although large uncertainties remain, advances in orbital and rover observations and climate modeling over the last decade have led to important new insights. Here, the geological evidence for both fluvial and fluvoglacial erosion is first reviewed. A phase space approach is then taken that considers the surface H2O inventory and steady-state mean surface temperature as separate variables. Based on this, it is argued that a fairly cold climate state with limited H2O inventory provides the best fit to the geological observations. In particular, a 'top-down' hydrological cycle where ice deposits form on the south pole, equatorial highlands and Tharsis allows significant fluvial erosion via episodic melting. Importantly, it also avoids the buildup of the thick, wet-based icesheets across the southern hemisphere that would appear following the wet scenario where early Mars had a northern ocean. At the end of the talk, the most likely mechanisms to explain the episodic melting events in the mainly cold, 'icy highlands' state are also discussed.

Growing importance of atmospheric water demands on the hydrologcial condition of East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, C. E.; Ho, C. H.; Jeong, S. J.; Park, H.

2015-12-01

As global temperature increases, enhanced exchange of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere expected to make dry regions drier and wet regions wetter. This concept is well fitted for the ocean, but oversimplified for the land. How the climate change causes the complex patterns of the continental dryness change is one of challenging questions. Here we investigate the observed dryness changes of the land surface by examining the quantitative influence of several climate parameters on the background aridity changes over East Asia, containing various climate regimes from cold-arid to warm-humid regions, using observations of 189 stations covering the period from 1961 to 2010. Overall mean aridity trend is changed from negative to positive around early 1990s. The turning of dryness trend is largely influenced by sharp increase in atmospheric water demands, regardless of the background climate. The warming induced increase in water demands is larger in warm-humid regions than in cold-arid region due to the Clausius-Clapeyron relation between air temperature and saturation vapor pressure. The results show the drying of anthropogenic warming already begins and influences on the patterns of dryness change over the land surface.

Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin.

PubMed

Selbig, William R

2015-07-15

The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2°C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Climate change and the demographic demise of a hoarding bird living on the edge.

PubMed

Waite, Thomas A; Strickland, Dan

2006-11-22

Population declines along the lower-latitude edge of a species' range may be diagnostic of climate change. We report evidence that climate change has contributed to deteriorating reproductive success in a rapidly declining population of the grey jay (Perisoreus canadensis) at the southern edge of its range. This non-migratory bird of boreal and subalpine forest lives on permanent territories, where it hoards enormous amounts of food for winter and then breeds very early, under still-wintry conditions. We hypothesized that warmer autumns have increased the perishability of hoards and compromised subsequent breeding attempts. Our analysis confirmed that warm autumns, especially when followed by cold late winters, have led to delayed breeding and reduced reproductive success. Our findings uniquely show that weather months before the breeding season impact the timing and success of breeding. Warm autumns apparently represent hostile conditions for this species, because it relies on cold storage. Our study population may be especially vulnerable, because it is situated at the southern edge of the range, where the potential for hoard rot is most pronounced. This population's demise may signal a climate-driven range contraction through local extinctions along the trailing edge.

Porphyrin-Based Symmetric Redox-Flow Batteries towards Cold-Climate Energy Storage.

PubMed

Ma, Ting; Pan, Zeng; Miao, Licheng; Chen, Chengcheng; Han, Mo; Shang, Zhenfeng; Chen, Jun

2018-03-12

Electrochemical energy storage with redox-flow batteries (RFBs) under subzero temperature is of great significance for the use of renewable energy in cold regions. However, RFBs are generally used above 10 °C. Herein we present non-aqueous organic RFBs based on 5,10,15,20-tetraphenylporphyrin (H 2 TPP) as a bipolar redox-active material (anode: [H 2 TPP] 2- /H 2 TPP, cathode: H 2 TPP/[H 2 TPP] 2+ ) and a Y-zeolite-poly(vinylidene fluoride) (Y-PVDF) ion-selective membrane with high ionic conductivity as a separator. The constructed RFBs exhibit a high volumetric capacity of 8.72 Ah L -1 with a high voltage of 2.83 V and excellent cycling stability (capacity retention exceeding 99.98 % per cycle) in the temperature range between 20 and -40 °C. Our study highlights principles for the design of RFBs that operate at low temperatures, thus offering a promising approach to electrochemical energy storage under cold-climate conditions. © 2018 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Disturbance and rehabilitation of cold to warm desert transitional shrublands in southwestern Utah

Treesearch

Chad Reid; James Bowns

2008-01-01

Extensive drought during the years of 2002, 2003, and 2004 removed most plant cover. On May 10, 2004, a cold front to the north resulted in weather stations in the area recording 600+ miles of wind travel (comparable to 60 mile hour winds for 10 hours). The effect of these two climatic events was to bury the Mile Square subdivision in wind-blown sand. Sand filled homes...

Expanding NevCAN capabilities: monitoring cold air drainage flow along a narrow wash within a Montane to PJ ecotone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bird, B. M.; Devitt, D.

2012-12-01

Cold air drainage flows are a naturally occurring physical process of mountain systems. Plant communities that exist in cold air drainage basins respond to these localized cold air trends, and have been shown to be decoupled from larger global climate weather systems. The assumption that air temperature decreases with altitude is violated within these systems and climate model results based on this assumption would ultimately be inaccurate. In arid regions, high radiation loads lead to significant long wave radiation being emitted from the ground later in the day. As incoming radiation ceases, the surface very quickly loses energy through radiative processes, leading to surface inversions and enhanced cold air drainage opportunities. This study is being conducted in the Mojave desert on Sheep Mountain located between sites 3 and 4 of the NSF EPSCoR network. Monitoring of cold air drainage was initiated in September of 2011within a narrow ravine located between the 2164 and 2350 meter elevation. We have installed 25 towers (5 towers per location situated at the central low point in a ravine and at equal distances up the sides of the ravine on both the N and S facing slopes) to assess air temperatures from 0.1 meters to a height of 3 meters at 25m intervals. Our goal is to better understand the connection between cold air movement and plant physiological response. The species monitored in this study include: Pinus ponderosa (common name: Ponderosa Pine), Pinus pinyon (Pinyon Pine), Juniperus osteosperma (Utah juniper), Cercocarpus intricatus (Mountain Mahogany) and Symphoricarpos (snowberry). Hourly air temperature measurements within the wash are being captured from 100 ibuttons placed within PVC solar radiation shields. We are also developing a modeling approach to assess the three dimensional movement of cold air over time by incorporating wind vectors captured from 5 2D sonic anemometers. Wind velocities will be paired with air temperatures to better understand the thermal dynamics of cold air drainage. Granier probes were installed in the five test species to monitor transpirational flow relative to cold air movement. Mid day soil - plant - water measurements are also being taken on a monthly basis during the growing season at all locations. Measurements include: leaf xylem water potential, stomata conductance, chlorophyll index readings, canopy minus ambient temperatures and surface soil moisture contents. To date the monitoring system has revealed cold air drainage occurring during periods of every month. We will report the physiological response of the five plant species, with emphasis on assessing the linkages with cold air movement.

The I.A.G. / A.I.G. SEDIBUD (Sediment Budgets in Cold Environments) Programme: Current and future activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beylich, Achim A.; Lamoureux, Scott; Decaulne, Armelle

2013-04-01

Projected climate change in cold regions is expected to alter melt season duration and intensity, along with the number of extreme rainfall events, total annual precipitation and the balance between snowfall and rainfall. Similarly, changes to the thermal balance are expected to reduce the extent of permafrost and seasonal ground frost and increase active layer depths. These effects will undoubtedly change surface environments in cold regions and alter the fluxes of sediments, nutrients and solutes, but the absence of quantitative data and coordinated geomorphic process monitoring and analysis to understand the sensitivity of the Earth surface environment is acute in cold climate environments. The International Association of Geomorphologists (I.A.G. / A.I.G. ) SEDIBUD (Sediment Budgets in Cold Environments) Programme was formed in 2005 to address this existing key knowledge gap. SEDIBUD currently has about 400 members worldwide and the Steering Committee of this international programme is composed of ten scientists from eight different countries: Achim A. Beylich (Chair) (Norway), Armelle Decaulne (Secretary) (France), John C. Dixon (USA), Scott F. Lamoureux (Vice-Chair) (Canada), John F. Orwin (Canada), Jan-Christoph Otto (Austria), Irina Overeem (USA), Thorsteinn Sæmundsson (Iceland), Jeff Warburton (UK) and Zbigniew Zwolinski (Poland). The central research question of this global group of scientists is to: Assess and model the contemporary sedimentary fluxes in cold climates, with emphasis on both particulate and dissolved components. Initially formed as European Science Foundation (ESF) Network SEDIFLUX (Sedimentary Source-to-Sink Fluxes in Cold Environments) (2004 - ), SEDIBUD has further expanded to a global group of researchers with field research sites located in polar and alpine regions in the northern and southern hemisphere. Research carried out at each of the close to 50 defined SEDIBUD key test sites varies by programme, logistics and available resources, but typically represent interdisciplinary collaborations of geomorphologists, hydrologists, ecologists, permafrost scientists and glaciologists. SEDIBUD has developed manuals and protocols (SEDIFLUX Manual, available online, see below) with a key set of primary surface process monitoring and research data requirements to incorporate results from these diverse projects and allow coordinated quantitative analysis across the programme. Defined SEDIBUD key test sites provide data on annual climate conditions, total discharge and particulate and dissolved fluxes (yields) as well as information on other relevant surface processes. A number of selected key test sites is providing high-resolution data on climate conditions, runoff and sedimentary fluxes (yields), which in addition to the annual data contribute to the SEDIBUD metadata database. Comparable datasets from different SEDIBUD key test sites are integrated and analysed to address key research questions as defined in the SEDIBUD objective (available online, see below). Defined SEDIBUD key tasks for the coming years include (i) The continued generation and compilation of comparable longer-term datasets on contemporary sedimentary fluxes and sediment yields from SEDIBUD key test sites worldwide, (ii) The continued extension of the SEDIBUD metadata database with these datasets, (iii) The testing of defined SEDIBUD hypotheses (available online, see below) by using datasets continuously compiled in the SEDIBUD metadata database, (iv) The publication of a SEDIBUD book (synthesis book). Detailed information on the SEDIBUD Programme, SEDIBUD meetings, SEDIBUD publications and SEDIBUD online documents and databases is available at the SEDIBUD website under http://www.geomorph.org/wg/wgsb.html.

Cold oceans enhance terrestrial new-particle formation in near-coastal forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suni, T.; Sogacheva, L.; Lauros, J.; Hakola, H.; Bäck, J.; Kurtén, T.; Cleugh, H.; van Gorsel, E.; Briggs, P.; Sevanto, S.; Kulmala, M.

2009-06-01

The world's forests produce atmospheric aerosol by emitting volatile organic compounds (VOC) which, after being oxidized in the atmosphere, readily condense on the omnipresent nanometer-sized nuclei and grow them to climatically relevant sizes. The cooling effect of aerosols is the greatest uncertainty in current climate models and estimates of radiative forcing. Therefore, identifying the environmental factors influencing the biogenic formation of aerosols is crucial. We show that, in addition to local meteorological factors in the forest, the magnitude of evaporation from oceans hundreds of kilometers upwind can effectively suppress or enhance new-particle formation. Our findings indicate that, unlike warm waters, the cold polar oceans provide excellent clean and dry background air that enhances aerosol formation above near-coastal forests in Fennoscandia and South-East Australia.

Documentary evidence of climate variability during cold seasons in Lesotho, southern Africa, 1833-1900

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grab, Stefan W.; Nash, David J.

2010-03-01

This study presents the first 19th century cold season climate chronology for the Kingdom of Lesotho in southern Africa. The chronology is constructed using a variety of documentary sources including letters, diaries, reports, monographs and newspaper articles obtained from southern African and British archives. Information relating to cold season weather phenomena during the austral autumn, winter and early spring months were recorded verbatim. Each of the cold seasons from 1833 to 1900 was then classified as “very severe”, “severe” or “normal/mild”, with a confidence rating ranging from low (1) to high (3) awarded against each annual classification. The accuracy of the document-derived chronology was verified against temperature data for Maseru for the period 1893-1900. Excellent correspondence of the document-derived chronology with the Maseru instrumental data and also with other global proxy temperature records for the 19th century is achieved. The results indicate 12 (18% of the total) very severe, 16 (23%) severe and 40 (59%) normal/mild cold seasons between 1833 and 1900. The overall trend is for more severe and snow-rich cold seasons during the early part of the study period (1833-1854) compared with the latter half of the 19th century (with the exception of the 1880s). A reduction in the duration of the frost season by over 20 days during the 19th century is also tentatively identified. Several severe to very severe cold seasons in Lesotho follow after major tropical and SH volcanic eruptions; such years are usually characterized by early frosts, and frequent and heavy snowfalls. The blocking of solar radiation and the enhanced northward displacement of polar fronts that are directly or indirectly associated with volcanic events, may account for many of the most severe Lesotho winters during the 19th century.

A major advance of tropical Andean glaciers during the Antarctic cold reversal.

PubMed

Jomelli, V; Favier, V; Vuille, M; Braucher, R; Martin, L; Blard, P-H; Colose, C; Brunstein, D; He, F; Khodri, M; Bourlès, D L; Leanni, L; Rinterknecht, V; Grancher, D; Francou, B; Ceballos, J L; Fonseca, H; Liu, Z; Otto-Bliesner, B L

2014-09-11

The Younger Dryas stadial, a cold event spanning 12,800 to 11,500 years ago, during the last deglaciation, is thought to coincide with the last major glacial re-advance in the tropical Andes. This interpretation relies mainly on cosmic-ray exposure dating of glacial deposits. Recent studies, however, have established new production rates for cosmogenic (10)Be and (3)He, which make it necessary to update all chronologies in this region and revise our understanding of cryospheric responses to climate variability. Here we present a new (10)Be moraine chronology in Colombia showing that glaciers in the northern tropical Andes expanded to a larger extent during the Antarctic cold reversal (14,500 to 12,900 years ago) than during the Younger Dryas. On the basis of a homogenized chronology of all (10)Be and (3)He moraine ages across the tropical Andes, we show that this behaviour was common to the northern and southern tropical Andes. Transient simulations with a coupled global climate model suggest that the common glacier behaviour was the result of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability superimposed on a deglacial increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. During the Antarctic cold reversal, glaciers advanced primarily in response to cold sea surface temperatures over much of the Southern Hemisphere. During the Younger Dryas, however, northern tropical Andes glaciers retreated owing to abrupt regional warming in response to reduced precipitation and land-surface feedbacks triggered by a weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Conversely, glacier retreat during the Younger Dryas in the southern tropical Andes occurred as a result of progressive warming, probably influenced by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Considered with evidence from mid-latitude Andean glaciers, our results argue for a common glacier response to cold conditions in the Antarctic cold reversal exceeding that of the Younger Dryas.

Cold-water coral carbonate mounds as unique palaeo-archives: the Plio-Pleistocene Challenger Mound record (NE Atlantic)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thierens, M.; Browning, E.; Pirlet, H.; Loutre, M.-F.; Dorschel, B.; Huvenne, V. A. I.; Titschack, J.; Colin, C.; Foubert, A.; Wheeler, A. J.

2013-08-01

Through the interplay of a stabilising cold-water coral framework and a dynamic sedimentary environment, cold-water coral carbonate mounds create distinctive centres of bio-geological accumulation in often complex (continental margin) settings. The IODP Expedition 307 drilling of the Challenger Mound (eastern Porcupine Seabight; NE Atlantic) not only retrieved the first complete developmental history of a coral carbonate mound, it also exposed a unique, Early-Pleistocene sedimentary sequence of exceptional resolution along the mid-latitudinal NE Atlantic margin. In this study, a comprehensive assessment of the Challenger Mound as an archive of Quaternary palaeo-environmental change and long-term coral carbonate mound development is presented. New and existing environmental proxy records, including clay mineralogy, planktonic foraminifer and calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphy and assemblage counts, planktonic foraminifer oxygen isotopes and siliciclastic particle-size, are thereby discussed within a refined chronostratigraphic and climatic context. Overall, the development of the Challenger Mound shows a strong affinity to the Plio-Pleistocene evolution of the Northern Hemisphere climate system, albeit not being completely in phase with it. The two major oceanographic and climatic transitions of the Plio-Pleistocene - the Late Pliocene/Early Pleistocene intensification of continental ice-sheet development and the mid-Pleistocene transition to the more extremely variable and more extensively glaciated late Quaternary - mark two major thresholds in Challenger Mound development: its Late Pliocene (>2.74 Ma) origin and its Middle-Late Pleistocene to recent decline. Distinct surface-water perturbations (i.e. water-mass/polar front migrations, productivity changes, melt-water pulses) are identified throughout the sequence, which can be linked to the intensity and extent of ice development on the nearby British-Irish Isles since the earliest Pleistocene. Glaciation-induced shifts in surface-water primary productivity are thereby proposed to fundamentally control cold-water coral growth, which in turn influences on-mound sediment accumulation and, hence, coral carbonate mound development throughout the Pleistocene. As local factors, such as proximal ice-sheet dynamics and on-mound changes in cold-water coral density, significantly affected the development of the Challenger Mound, they can potentially explain the nature of its palaeo-record and its offsets with the periodicities of global climate variability. On the other hand, owing to this unique setting, a regionally exceptional, high-resolution palaeo-record of Early Pleistocene (ca 2.6 to 2.1 Ma) environmental change (including early British-Irish ice-sheet development), broadly in phase with the 41 ka-paced global climate system, is preserved in the lower Challenger Mound. All in all, the Challenger Mound record highlights the wider relevance of coral carbonate mound archives and their potential to capture unique records from dynamic (continental margin) environments.

The anatomy of Last Glacial Maximum climate variations in south Westland, New Zealand, derived from pollen records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Newnham, Rewi M.; Denton, George H.; Blaauw, Maarten; Barrell, David J. A.

2013-08-01

We present pollen records from three sites in south Westland, New Zealand, that document past vegetation and inferred climate change between approximately 30,000 and 15,000 cal. yr BP. Detailed radiocarbon dating of the enclosing sediments at one of those sites, Galway tarn, provides a more robust chronology for the structure and timing of climate-induced vegetation change than has previously been possible in this region. The Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra, a key isochronous marker, affords a precise stratigraphic link across all three pollen records, while other tie points are provided by key pollen-stratigraphic changes which appear to be synchronous across all three sites. Collectively, the records show three episodes in which grassland, interpreted as indicating mostly cold subalpine to alpine conditions, was prevalent in lowland south Westland, separated by phases dominated by subalpine shrubs and montane-lowland trees, indicating milder interstadial conditions. Dating, expressed as a Bayesian-estimated single 'best' age followed in parentheses by younger/older bounds of the 95% confidence modelled age range, indicates that a cold stadial episode, whose onset was marked by replacement of woodland by grassland, occurred between 28,730 (29,390-28,500) and 25,470 (26,090-25,270) cal. yr BP (years before AD, 1950), prior to the deposition of the Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra. Milder interstadial conditions prevailed between 25,470 (26,090-25,270) and 24,400 (24,840-24,120) cal. yr BP and between 22,630 (22,930-22,340) and 21,980 (22,210-21,580) cal. yr BP, separated by a return to cold stadial conditions between 24,400 and 22,630 cal. yr BP. A final episode of grass-dominated vegetation, indicating cold stadial conditions, occurred from 21,980 (22,210-21,580) to 18,490 (18,670-17,950) cal. yr BP. The decline in grass pollen, indicating progressive climate amelioration, was well advanced by 17,370 (17,730-17,110) cal. yr BP, indicating that the onset of the termination in south Westland occurred sometime between ca 18,490 and ca 17,370 cal. yr BP. A similar general pattern of stadials and interstadials is seen, to varying degrees of resolution but generally with lesser chronological control, in many other paleoclimate proxy records from the New Zealand region. This highly resolved chronology of vegetation changes from southwestern New Zealand contributes to the examination of past climate variations in the southwest Pacific region. The stadial and interstadial episodes defined by south Westland pollen records represent notable climate variability during the latter part of the Last Glaciation. Similar climatic patterns recorded farther afield, for example from Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, imply that climate variations during the latter part of the Last Glaciation and the transition to the Holocene interglacial were inter-regionally extensive in the Southern Hemisphere and thus important to understand in detail and to place into a global context.

Behavior of crushed rock aggregates used in road construction exposed to cold climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, Elena; Pérez Fortes, Ana Patricia; Anastasio, Sara; Willy Danielsen, Svein

2016-04-01

Presently, about 90% of the aggregate production in Europe comes from naturally occurring resources: quarries and pits. Due to the increased demand for sand and gravel for construction purposes, not only in building but also in road construction, the last decade has seen a significant trend towards the use of more crushed rock aggregates. This resource has been more and more preferred to sand and gravel thanks to the significant technological development of its process and use phase. The performance of the aggregates is generally evaluated depending on three main factors: the geological origin (mineral composition, texture, structure, degree of weathering), the aggregate processing (crushing, sieving, washing, storing) and the user technology for a specific area of use (e.g. road construction, asphalt binders). Nevertheless climatic conditions should carefully be taken into account in application such as road construction. Large temperature gradients and high levels of humidity are known to significantly affect the performance of the material. Although the problem is, at least in the asphalt field, considered mostly from the binder point of view, this article aims to investigate the effect of aggregate properties on road performance in cold climatic conditions. Two different climatic areas will be taken into account: Norway and Spain. While both these countries are listed among the main European producers of aggregates, they represent significantly different climatic regions. While Norwegian weather is characterized by humid cold winters and relatively mild summers, Spain has temperate climate with cold regions in mountainous and internal areas. Both countries have been significantly affected by climate change with increasing temperature variations and instability. At the same time, similar winter maintenance measures, including the use of a considerable amount of solid and liquid chemicals to avoid ice formation (e.g. NaCl) and/or to provide better friction, are carried out in both countries. The use of crushed aggregates in both the frost protection layer and asphalt layers is the main topic for our investigations. In existing standards there is large focus on mechanical properties of aggregates and their grain size distribution, but little focus on mineralogy and and its behaviour at low temperatures. With the purpose to study the effect of winter climatic conditions and the use of salts during winter maintenance, different samples of aggregates and asphalt mixtures used in Norwegian and Spanish roads were subjected to freeze-thaw cycles in the laboratory. To evaluate the impact of these cycles to the mechanical properties of the selected materials, Los Angeles test on aggregates and Cantabro test on asphalt have been done and compared with results from the same aggregates and asphalt mixtures but untreated in the laboratory. The results obtained were related to the petrographical analysis of the rocks that compose the aggregates in order to estimate the influence of the rock properties (mineralogy, texture and structure) in road materials behavior, especially when they are exposed to winter conditions.

Lithium-ion battery structure that self-heats at low temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chao-Yang; Zhang, Guangsheng; Ge, Shanhai; Xu, Terrence; Ji, Yan; Yang, Xiao-Guang; Leng, Yongjun

2016-01-01

Lithium-ion batteries suffer severe power loss at temperatures below zero degrees Celsius, limiting their use in applications such as electric cars in cold climates and high-altitude drones. The practical consequences of such power loss are the need for larger, more expensive battery packs to perform engine cold cranking, slow charging in cold weather, restricted regenerative braking, and reduction of vehicle cruise range by as much as 40 per cent. Previous attempts to improve the low-temperature performance of lithium-ion batteries have focused on developing additives to improve the low-temperature behaviour of electrolytes, and on externally heating and insulating the cells. Here we report a lithium-ion battery structure, the ‘all-climate battery’ cell, that heats itself up from below zero degrees Celsius without requiring external heating devices or electrolyte additives. The self-heating mechanism creates an electrochemical interface that is favourable for high discharge/charge power. We show that the internal warm-up of such a cell to zero degrees Celsius occurs within 20 seconds at minus 20 degrees Celsius and within 30 seconds at minus 30 degrees Celsius, consuming only 3.8 per cent and 5.5 per cent of cell capacity, respectively. The self-heated all-climate battery cell yields a discharge/regeneration power of 1,061/1,425 watts per kilogram at a 50 per cent state of charge and at minus 30 degrees Celsius, delivering 6.4-12.3 times the power of state-of-the-art lithium-ion cells. We expect the all-climate battery to enable engine stop-start technology capable of saving 5-10 per cent of the fuel for 80 million new vehicles manufactured every year. Given that only a small fraction of the battery energy is used for self-heating, we envisage that the all-climate battery cell may also prove useful for plug-in electric vehicles, robotics and space exploration applications.

Lithium-ion battery structure that self-heats at low temperatures.

PubMed

Wang, Chao-Yang; Zhang, Guangsheng; Ge, Shanhai; Xu, Terrence; Ji, Yan; Yang, Xiao-Guang; Leng, Yongjun

2016-01-28

Lithium-ion batteries suffer severe power loss at temperatures below zero degrees Celsius, limiting their use in applications such as electric cars in cold climates and high-altitude drones. The practical consequences of such power loss are the need for larger, more expensive battery packs to perform engine cold cranking, slow charging in cold weather, restricted regenerative braking, and reduction of vehicle cruise range by as much as 40 per cent. Previous attempts to improve the low-temperature performance of lithium-ion batteries have focused on developing additives to improve the low-temperature behaviour of electrolytes, and on externally heating and insulating the cells. Here we report a lithium-ion battery structure, the 'all-climate battery' cell, that heats itself up from below zero degrees Celsius without requiring external heating devices or electrolyte additives. The self-heating mechanism creates an electrochemical interface that is favourable for high discharge/charge power. We show that the internal warm-up of such a cell to zero degrees Celsius occurs within 20 seconds at minus 20 degrees Celsius and within 30 seconds at minus 30 degrees Celsius, consuming only 3.8 per cent and 5.5 per cent of cell capacity, respectively. The self-heated all-climate battery cell yields a discharge/regeneration power of 1,061/1,425 watts per kilogram at a 50 per cent state of charge and at minus 30 degrees Celsius, delivering 6.4-12.3 times the power of state-of-the-art lithium-ion cells. We expect the all-climate battery to enable engine stop-start technology capable of saving 5-10 per cent of the fuel for 80 million new vehicles manufactured every year. Given that only a small fraction of the battery energy is used for self-heating, we envisage that the all-climate battery cell may also prove useful for plug-in electric vehicles, robotics and space exploration applications.

Sediment Volume Record of Paleogene-Neogene Transantarctic Mountains Erosion and Landscape Modification, McMurdo Sound Region, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, T.; Wilson, T. J.; Henrys, S.; Speece, M. A.

2016-12-01

The interplay of tectonics and climate is recorded in the sedimentary strata within Victoria Land Basin, McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. Patterns of Cenozoic sedimentation are documented from interpretation of seismic reflection profiles calibrated by drillhole data in McMurdo Sound, and these patterns provide enhanced constraints on the evolution of the coupled Transantarctic Mountains-West Antarctic Rift System and on ice sheet advance/retreat through multiple climate cycles. The research focuses on shifts from warm based to cold based ice sheets through the variable climate and ice sheet conditions that characterized the early to middle Miocene. The study seeks to test the view that cold based ice sheets in arid, polar deserts minimally erode the landscape by calculating sediment volumes for critical climatic intervals. Revised seismic mapping through McMurdo Sound has been completed, utilizing the seismic stratigraphic framework first established by Fielding et al. (2006) and new reflectors marking unconformities identified from the AND-2A core (Levy et al., 2016). Reflector age constraints are derived by tying surfaces to the Cape Roberts Project, CIROS-1, and AND-2A drillholes. Seismic facies coupled with AND-2A core provenance information provides insight into depositional mechanisms and ice sheet behavior. Seismic facies transitions occur across the major unconformity surfaces in the AND-2A core. Sediment volume calculations for subareas within McMurdo Sound where reflectors are most continuous indicate substantial decreases in preserved sediment volume between the Oligocene and Early Miocene sequences, and between the early and mid-Miocene sequences. Sediment volumes, used in combination with an ice sheet model in a backstacking procedure, provide constraints on landscape modification and further understanding of how landscapes erode under warm and cold based ice sheet regimes.

Climate refugia: The physical, hydrologic and disturbance basis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holden, Z. A.; Maneta, M. P.; Forthofer, J.

2015-12-01

Projected changes in global climate and associated shifts in vegetation have increased interest in understanding species persistence at local scales. We examine the climatic and physical factors that could mediate changes in the distribution of vegetation in regions of complex topography. Using massive networks of low-cost temperature and humidity sensors, we developed topographically-resolved daily historical gridded temperature data for the US Northern Rockies. We used the WindNinja model to create daily historical wind speed maps across the same domain. Using a spatially distributed ecohydrology model (ECH2O) we examine separately the sensitivity of modeled evapotranspiration and soil moisture to wind, radiation, soil properties, minimum temperature and humidity. A suite of physical factors including lower wind speeds, cold air drainage, solar shading and increased soil depth reduce evapotranspiration and increase late season moisture availability in valley bottoms. Evapotranspiration shows strong sensitivity to spatial variability in surface wind speed, suggesting that sheltering effects from winds may be an important factor contributing to mountain refugia. Fundamental to our understanding of patterns of vegetation change is the role of stand-replacing wildfires, which modify the physical environment and subsequent patterns of species persistence and recruitment. Using satellite-derived maps of burn severity for recent fires in the US Northern Rockies we examined relationships between wind speed, cold air drainage potential and soil depth and the occurrence of unburned and low severity fire. Severe fire is less likely to occur in areas with high cold air drainage potential and low wind speeds, suggesting that sheltered valley bottoms have mediated the severity of recent wildfires. Our finding highlight the complex physical mechanisms by which mountain weather and climate mediate fire-induced vegetation changes in the US Northern Rocky Mountains.

Early Holocene change in atmospheric circulation in the Northern great plains: An upstream view of the 8.2 ka cold event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dean, W.E.; Forester, R.M.; Bradbury, J.P.

2002-01-01

Elk Lake, in northwestern Minnesota, contains numerous proxy records of climatic and environmental change contained in varved sediments with annual resolution for the last 10,000 years. These proxies show that about 8200 calendar years ago (8.2 cal. ka; 7300 radiocarbon years) Elk Lake went from a well-stratified lake that was wind-protected in a boreal forest to a well-mixed lake in open prairie savanna receiving northwesterly wind-blown dust, probably from the dry floor of Lake Agassiz. This change in climate marks the initiation of the widely recognized mid-Holocene "altithermal" in central North America. The coincidence of this change with the so-called 8.2 cal. ka cold event, recognized in ice-core and other records from the circum-North Atlantic, and thought by some to be caused by catastrophic discharge of freshwater from proglacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway, suggests that the two "events" might be related. Our interpretation of the Elk Lake proxy records, and of other records from less accurately dated sites, suggests that change in climate over North America was the result of a fundamental change in atmospheric circulation in response to marked changes in the relative proportions of land, water, and, especially, glacial ice in North America during the early Holocene. This change in circulation probably post-dates the final drainage of proglacial lakes along the southern margin of the Laurentide ice sheet, and may have produced a minor perturbation in climate over Greenland that resulted in a brief cold pulse detected in ice cores. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

An assessment of postcranial indices, ratios, and body mass versus eco-geographical variables of prehistoric Jomon, Yayoi agriculturalists, and Kumejima Islanders of Japan.

PubMed

Seguchi, Noriko; Quintyn, Conrad B; Yonemoto, Shiori; Takamuku, Hirofumi

2017-09-10

We explore variations in body and limb proportions of the Jomon hunter-gatherers (14,000-2500 BP), the Yayoi agriculturalists (2500-1700 BP) of Japan, and the Kumejima Islanders of the Ryukyus (1600-1800 AD) with 11 geographically diverse skeletal postcranial samples from Africa, Europe, Asia, Australia, and North America using brachial-crural indices, femur head-breadth-to-femur length ratio, femur head-breadth-to-lower-limb-length ratio, and body mass as indicators of phenotypic climatic adaptation. Specifically, we test the hypothesis that variation in limb proportions seen in Jomon, Yayoi, and Kumejima is a complex interaction of genetic adaptation; development and allometric constraints; selection, gene flow and genetic drift with changing cultural factors (i.e., nutrition) and climate. The skeletal data (1127 individuals) were subjected to principle components analysis, Manly's permutation multiple regression tests, and Relethford-Blangero analysis. The results of Manly's tests indicate that body proportions and body mass are significantly correlated with latitude, and minimum and maximum temperatures while limb proportions were not significantly correlated with these climatic variables. Principal components plots separated "climatic zones:" tropical, temperate, and arctic populations. The indigenous Jomon showed cold-adapted body proportions and warm-adapted limb proportions. Kumejima showed cold-adapted body proportions and limbs. The Yayoi adhered to the Allen-Bergmann expectation of cold-adapted body and limb proportions. Relethford-Blangero analysis showed that Kumejima experienced gene flow indicated by high observed variances while Jomon experienced genetic drift indicated by low observed variances. The complex interaction of evolutionary forces and development/nutritional constraints are implicated in the mismatch of limb and body proportions. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Advancing Methods for Estimating Soil Nitrous Oxide Emissions by Incorporating Freeze-Thaw Cycles into a Tier 3 Model-Based Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogle, S. M.; DelGrosso, S.; Parton, W. J.

2017-12-01

Soil nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural management are a key source of greenhouse gas emissions in many countries due to the widespread use of nitrogen fertilizers, manure amendments from livestock production, planting legumes and other practices that affect N dynamics in soils. In the United States, soil nitrous oxide emissions have ranged from 250 to 280 Tg CO2 equivalent from 1990 to 2015, with uncertainties around 20-30 percent. A Tier 3 method has been used to estimate the emissions with the DayCent ecosystem model. While the Tier 3 approach is considerably more accurate than IPCC Tier 1 methods, there is still the possibility of biases in emission estimates if there are processes and drivers that are not represented in the modeling framework. Furthermore, a key principle of IPCC guidance is that inventory compilers estimate emissions as accurately as possible. Freeze-thaw cycles and associated hot moments of nitrous oxide emissions are one of key drivers influencing emissions in colder climates, such as the cold temperate climates of the upper Midwest and New England regions of the United States. Freeze-thaw activity interacts with management practices that are increasing N availability in the plant-soil system, leading to greater nitrous oxide emissions during transition periods from winter to spring. Given the importance of this driver, the DayCent model has been revised to incorproate freeze-thaw cycles, and the results suggests that including this driver can significantly modify the emissions estimates in cold temperate climate regions. Consequently, future methodological development to improve estimation of nitrous oxide emissions from soils would benefit from incorporating freeze-thaw cycles into the modeling framework for national territories with a cold climate.

Shallow bedrock limits groundwater seepage-based headwater climate refugia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briggs, Martin A.; Lane, John W.; Snyder, Craig D.; White, Eric A.; Johnson, Zachary; Nelms, David L.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.

2018-01-01

Groundwater/surface-water exchanges in streams are inexorably linked to adjacent aquifer dynamics. As surface-water temperatures continue to increase with climate warming, refugia created by groundwater connectivity is expected to enable cold water fish species to survive. The shallow alluvial aquifers that source groundwater seepage to headwater streams, however, may also be sensitive to seasonal and long-term air temperature dynamics. Depth to bedrock can directly influence shallow aquifer flow and thermal sensitivity, but is typically ill-defined along the stream corridor in steep mountain catchments. We employ rapid, cost-effective passive seismic measurements to evaluate the variable thickness of the shallow colluvial and alluvial aquifer sediments along a headwater stream supporting cold water-dependent brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in Shenandoah National Park, VA, USA. Using a mean depth to bedrock of 2.6 m, numerical models predicted strong sensitivity of shallow aquifer temperature to the downward propagation of surface heat. The annual temperature dynamics (annual signal amplitude attenuation and phase shift) of potential seepage sourced from the shallow modeled aquifer were compared to several years of paired observed stream and air temperature records. Annual stream water temperature patterns were found to lag local air temperature by ∼8–19 d along the stream corridor, indicating that thermal exchange between the stream and shallow groundwater is spatially variable. Locations with greater annual signal phase lag were also associated with locally increased amplitude attenuation, further suggestion of year-round buffering of channel water temperature by groundwater seepage. Numerical models of shallow groundwater temperature that incorporate regional expected climate warming trends indicate that the summer cooling capacity of this groundwater seepage will be reduced over time, and lower-elevation stream sections may no longer serve as larger-scale climate refugia for cold water fish species, even with strong groundwater discharge.

Short-lived high-amplitude cooling on Svalbard during the Dark Ages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Bilt, Willem; D`Andrea, William; Bakke, Jostein; Balascio, Nicholas; Werner, Johannes; Hoek, Wim

2016-04-01

As the paradigm of a stable Holocene climate has shifted, an increasing number of high-resolution proxy timeseries reveal dynamic conditions, characterized by high-amplitude climate shifts. Some of these events occurred during historical times and allow us to study the interaction between environmental and cultural change, providing valuable lessons for the near future. These include the Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP) between 300 and 800 AD, a period marked by political upheaval and climate instability that remains poorly investigated. Here, we present two temperature reconstructions from the High Arctic Svalbard Archipelago. To this end, we applied the established alkenone-based UK37 paleothermometer on sediments from two lakes on western Spitsbergen, Lake Hajeren and Lake Hakluyt. The Arctic is presently warming twice as fast as the global average and proxy data as well as model simulations suggest that this amplified response is characteristic for regional climate. The Arctic therefore provides a uniquely sensitive environment to study relatively modest climate shifts, like the DACP, that may not be adequately captured at lower-latitude sites. Owing to undisturbed sediments, a high sampling resolution and robust chronological control, the presented reconstructions resolve the attendant sub-centennial-scale climate shifts. Our findings suggest that the DACP marks a cold spell within the cool Neoglacial period, which started some 4 ka BP on Svalbard. Close investigation reveals a distinct temperature minimum around 500 AD that is reproduced in another alkenone-based temperature reconstruction from a nearby lake. At ± 1.75 °C, cooling underlines the sensitivity of Arctic climate as well as the magnitude of the DACP.

Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

PubMed

Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

2013-12-03

Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.

Uncertainty in Driftless Area Cold-Water Fishery Decision Making and a Framework for Stakeholder-Based Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuster, Z.

2015-12-01

The paradigm of stakeholder-based science is becoming more popular as organizations such as the U.S. Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers adopt it as a way of providing practicable climate change information to practitioners. One of the key issues stakeholders face in adopting climate change information into their decision processes is how uncertainty is addressed and communicated. In this study, we conducted a series of semi-structured interviews with managers and scientists working on stream habitat restoration of cold-water fisheries in the Driftless Area of Wisconsin that were focused on how they interpret and manage uncertainty and what types of information they need to make better decisions. One of the important lessons we learned from the interviews is that if researchers are going to provide useful climate change information to stakeholders, they need to understand where and how decisions are made and what adaptation measures are actually available in a given decision arena. This method of incorporating social science methods into climate science production can provide a framework for researchers from the Climate Science Centers and others who are interested in pursuing stakeholder-based science. By indentifying a specific ecological system and conducting interviews with actors who work on that system, researchers will be able to gain a better understanding of how their climate change science can fit into existing or shape new decision processes. We also interpreted lessons learned from our interviews via existing literature in areas such as stakeholder-based modeling and the decision sciences to provide guidance specific to the stakeholder-based science process.

Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking–sea-ice–ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation

PubMed Central

Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Livina, Valerie

2013-01-01

Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70°N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change. PMID:24248352

Human responses and non-responses to climatic variations during the last Glacial-Interglacial transition in the eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Neil; Woodbridge, Jessie; Bevan, Andrew; Palmisano, Alessio; Shennan, Stephen; Asouti, Eleni

2018-03-01

We review and evaluate human adaptations during the last glacial-interglacial climatic transition in southwest Asia. Stable isotope data imply that climatic change was synchronous across the region within the limits of dating uncertainty. Changes in vegetation, as indicated from pollen and charcoal, mirror step-wise shifts between cold-dry and warm-wet climatic conditions, but with lag effects for woody vegetation in some upland and interior areas. Palaeoenvironmental data can be set against regional archaeological evidence for human occupancy and economy from the later Epipalaeolithic to the aceramic Neolithic. Demographic change is evaluated from summed radiocarbon date probability distributions, which indicating contrasting - and in some cases opposite - population trajectories in different regions. Abrupt warming transitions at ∼14.5 and 11.7 ka BP may have acted as pacemakers for rapid cultural change in some areas, notably at the start of the Natufian and Pre-Pottery Neolithic cultures. However temporal synchroneity does not mean that climatic changes had the same environmental or societal consequences in different regions. During cold-dry time intervals, regions such as the Levant acted as refugia for plant and animal resources and human population. In areas where socio-ecological continuity was maintained through periods of adverse climate (e.g. Younger Dryas) human communities were able to respond rapidly to subsequent climatic improvement. By contrast, in areas where there was a break in settlement at these times (e.g. central Anatolia), populations were slower to react to the new opportunities provided by the interglacial world.

Variation in adult stress resistance does not explain vulnerability to climate change in copper butterflies.

PubMed

Klockmann, Michael; Wallmeyer, Leonard; Fischer, Klaus

2017-03-15

Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. However, although many species clearly suffer from ongoing climate change, others benefit from it, for example, by showing range expansions. However, which specific features determine a species' vulnerability to climate change? Phenotypic plasticity, which has been described as the first line of defence against environmental change, may be of utmost importance here. Against this background, we here compare plasticity in stress tolerance in 3 copper butterfly species, which differ arguably in their vulnerability to climate change. Specifically, we investigated heat, cold and desiccation resistance after acclimatization to different temperatures in the adult stage. We demonstrate that acclimation at a higher temperature increased heat but decreased cold tolerance and desiccation resistance. Contrary to our predictions, species did not show pronounced variation in stress resistance, though plastic capacities in temperature stress resistance did vary across species. Overall, our results seemed to reflect population-rather than species-specific patterns. We conclude that the geographical origin of the populations used should be considered even in comparative studies. However, our results suggest that, in the 3 species studied here, vulnerability to climate change is not in the first place determined by stress resistance in the adult stage. As entomological studies focus all too often on adults only, we argue that more research effort should be dedicated to other developmental stages when trying to understand insect responses to environmental change. © 2017 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Descriptors of natural thermal regimes in streams and their responsiveness to change in the Pacific Northwest of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy

2013-01-01

1. Temperature is a major driver of ecological processes in stream ecosystems, yet the dynamics of thermal regimes remain poorly described. Most work has focused on relatively simple descriptors that fail to capture the full range of conditions that characterise thermal regimes of streams across seasons or throughout the year. 2. To more completely describe thermal regimes, we developed several descriptors of magnitude, variability, frequency, duration and timing of thermal events throughout a year. We evaluated how these descriptors change over time using long-term (1979–2009), continuous temperature data from five relatively undisturbed cold-water streams in western Oregon, U.S.A. In addition to trends for each descriptor, we evaluated similarities among them, as well as patterns of spatial coherence, and temporal synchrony. 3. Using different groups of descriptors, we were able to more fully capture distinct aspects of the full range of variability in thermal regimes across space and time. A subset of descriptors showed both higher coherence and synchrony and, thus, an appropriate level of responsiveness to examine evidence of regional climatic influences on thermal regimes. Most notably, daily minimum values during winter–spring were the most responsive descriptors to potential climatic influences. 4. Overall, thermal regimes in streams we studied showed high frequency and low variability of cold temperatures during the cold-water period in winter and spring, and high frequency and high variability of warm temperatures during the warm-water period in summer and autumn. The cold and warm periods differed in the distribution of events with a higher frequency and longer duration of warm events in summer than cold events in winter. The cold period exhibited lower variability in the duration of events, but showed more variability in timing. 5. In conclusion, our results highlight the importance of a year-round perspective in identifying the most responsive characteristics or descriptors of thermal regimes in streams. The descriptors we provide herein can be applied across hydro-ecological regions to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns in thermal regimes. Evaluation of coherence and synchrony of different components of thermal regimes can facilitate identification of impacts of regional climate variability or local human or natural influences.

Soil carbon in Australian fire-prone forests determined by climate more than fire regimes.

PubMed

Sawyer, Robert; Bradstock, Ross; Bedward, Michael; Morrison, R John

2018-10-15

Knowledge of global C cycle implications from changes to fire regime and climate are of growing importance. Studies on the role of the fire regime in combination with climate change on soil C pools are lacking. We used Bayesian modelling to estimate the soil % total C (% C Tot ) and % recalcitrant pyrogenic C (% RPC) from field samples collected using a stratified sampling approach. These observations were derived from the following scenarios: 1. Three fire frequencies across three distinctive climate regions in a homogeneous dry sclerophyll forest in south-eastern Australia over four decades. 2. The effects of different fire intensity combinations from successive wildfires. We found climate had a stronger effect than fire frequency on the size of the estimated mineral soil C pool. The largest soil C pool was estimated to occur under a wet and cold (WC) climate, via presumed effects of high precipitation, an adequate growing season temperature (i.e. resulting in relatively high NPP) and winter conditions sufficiently cold to retard seasonal soil respiration rates. The smallest soil C pool was estimated in forests with lower precipitation but warmer mean annual temperature (MAT). The lower precipitation and higher temperature was likely to have retarded NPP and litter decomposition rates but may have had little effect on relative soil respiration. Small effects associated with fire frequency were found, but both their magnitude and direction were climate dependent. There was an increase in soil C associated with a low intensity fire being followed by a high intensity fire. For both fire frequency and intensity the response of % RPC mirrored that of % C Tot : i.e. it was effectively a constant across all combinations of climate and fire regimes sampled. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Adaptations to Climate in Candidate Genes for Common Metabolic Disorders

PubMed Central

Hancock, Angela M; Witonsky, David B; Gordon, Adam S; Eshel, Gidon; Pritchard, Jonathan K; Coop, Graham; Di Rienzo, Anna

2008-01-01

Evolutionary pressures due to variation in climate play an important role in shaping phenotypic variation among and within species and have been shown to influence variation in phenotypes such as body shape and size among humans. Genes involved in energy metabolism are likely to be central to heat and cold tolerance. To test the hypothesis that climate shaped variation in metabolism genes in humans, we used a bioinformatics approach based on network theory to select 82 candidate genes for common metabolic disorders. We genotyped 873 tag SNPs in these genes in 54 worldwide populations (including the 52 in the Human Genome Diversity Project panel) and found correlations with climate variables using rank correlation analysis and a newly developed method termed Bayesian geographic analysis. In addition, we genotyped 210 carefully matched control SNPs to provide an empirical null distribution for spatial patterns of allele frequency due to population history alone. For nearly all climate variables, we found an excess of genic SNPs in the tail of the distributions of the test statistics compared to the control SNPs, implying that metabolic genes as a group show signals of spatially varying selection. Among our strongest signals were several SNPs (e.g., LEPR R109K, FABP2 A54T) that had previously been associated with phenotypes directly related to cold tolerance. Since variation in climate may be correlated with other aspects of environmental variation, it is possible that some of the signals that we detected reflect selective pressures other than climate. Nevertheless, our results are consistent with the idea that climate has been an important selective pressure acting on candidate genes for common metabolic disorders. PMID:18282109

Climatic origins predict variation in photoprotective leaf pigments in response to drought and low temperatures in live oaks (Quercus series Virentes).

PubMed

Ramírez-Valiente, Jose A; Koehler, Kari; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine

2015-05-01

Climate is a major selective force in nature. Exploring patterns of inter- and intraspecific genetic variation in functional traits may explain how species have evolved and may continue evolving under future climate change. Photoprotective pigments play an important role in short-term responses to climate stress in plants but knowledge of their long-term role in adaptive processes is lacking. In this study, our goal was to determine how photoprotective mechanisms, morphological traits and their plasticity have evolved in live oaks (Quercus series Virentes) in response to different climatic conditions. For this purpose, seedlings originating from 11 populations from four live oak species (Quercus virginiana, Q. geminata, Q. fusiformis and Q. oleoides) were grown under contrasting common environmental conditions of temperature (tropical vs temperate) and water availability (droughted vs well-watered). Xanthophyll cycle pigments, anthocyanin accumulation, chlorophyll fluorescence parameters and leaf anatomical traits were measured. Seedlings originating from more mesic source populations of Q. oleoides and Q. fusiformis increased the xanthophyll de-epoxidation state under water-limiting conditions and showed higher phenotypic plasticity for this trait, suggesting adaptation to local climate. Likewise, seedlings originating from warmer climates had higher anthocyanin concentration in leaves under cold winter conditions but not higher de-epoxidation state. Overall, our findings suggest that (i) climate has been a key factor in shaping species and population differences in stress tolerance for live oaks, (ii) anthocyanins are used under cold stress in species with limited freezing tolerance and (iii) xanthophyll cycle pigments are used when photoprotection under drought conditions is needed. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A model of late quaternary landscape development in the Delaware Valley, New Jersey and Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ridge, J.C.; Evenson, E.B.; Sevon, W.D.

1992-01-01

In the Delaware Valley of New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania the late Quaternary history of colluviation, fluvial adjustment, and soil formation is based on the ages of pre-Wisconsinan soils and glacial deposits which are indicated by feld relationships and inferred from mid-latitude climate changes indicated by marine oxygen-isotope records. The area is divided into four terranes characterized by sandstone, gneiss, slate and carbonate rocks. Since the last pre-Wisconsinan glaciation (> 130 ka, inferred to be late Illinoian), each terrane responded differently to chemical and mechanical weathering. During the Sangamon interglacial stage (??? 130-75 ka) in situ weathering is inferred to have occurred at rates greater than transportation of material which resulted in the formation of deep, highly weathered soil and saprolite, and dissolution of carbonate rocks. Cold climatic conditions during the Wisconsinan, on the other hand, induced erosion of the landscape at rates faster than soil development. Upland erosion during the Wisconsinan removed pre-Wisconsinan soil and glacial sediment and bedrock to produce muddy to blocky colluvium, gre??zes lite??es, and alluvial fans on footslopes. Fluvial gravel and overlying colluvium in the Delaware Valley, both buried by late Wisconsinan outwash, are inferred to represent episodes of early and middle Wisconsinan (??? 75-25 ka) upland erosion and river aggradiation followed by river degradation and colluvium deposition. Early-middle Wisconsinan colluvium is more voluminous than later colluvium despite colder, possibly permafrost conditions during the late Wisconsinan ??? 25-10 ka). Extensive colluviation during the early and middle Wisconsinan resulted from a longer (50 kyr), generally cold interval of erosion with a greater availability of easily eroded pre-Wisconsinan surficial materials on uplands than during the late Wisconsinan. After recession of late Wisconsinan ice from its terminal position, soil formation and landscape stability were delayed until the Holocene by a lingering cold climate, slope erosion, colluvium and alluvial fan deposition, and eolian sedimentation. Late Quaternary erosion in the Delaware Valley was dominated by glacial and periglacial processes during glacial stages. During the warm interglacial stages, soils developed on a more stable landscape. These souls were easily colluviated by periglacial erosion during periods of intermittent cold climate. ?? 1992.

Seed dormancy and germination changes of snowbed species under climate warming: the role of pre- and post-dispersal temperatures.

PubMed

Bernareggi, Giulietta; Carbognani, Michele; Mondoni, Andrea; Petraglia, Alessandro

2016-09-01

Climate warming has major impacts on seed germination of several alpine species, hence on their regeneration capacity. Most studies have investigated the effects of warming after seed dispersal, and little is known about the effects a warmer parental environment may have on germination and dormancy of the seed progeny. Nevertheless, temperatures during seed development and maturation could alter the state of dormancy, affecting the timing of emergence and seedling survival. Here, the interplay between pre- and post-dispersal temperatures driving seed dormancy release and germination requirements of alpine plants were investigated. Three plant species inhabiting alpine snowbeds were exposed to an artificial warming treatment (i.e. +1·5 K) and to natural conditions in the field. Seeds produced were exposed to six different periods of cold stratification (0, 2, 4, 8, 12 and 20 weeks at 0 °C), followed by four incubation temperatures (5, 10, 15 and 20 °C) for germination testing. A warmer parental environment produced either no or a significant increase in germination, depending on the duration of cold stratification, incubation temperatures and their interaction. In contrast, the speed of germination was less sensitive to changes in the parental environment. Moreover, the effects of warming appeared to be linked to the level of (physiological) seed dormancy, with deeper dormant species showing major changes in response to incubation temperatures and less dormant species in response to cold stratification periods. Plants developed under warmer climates will produce seeds with changed germination responses to temperature and/or cold stratification, but the extent of these changes across species could be driven by seed dormancy traits. Transgenerational plastic adjustments of seed germination and dormancy shown here may result from increased seed viability, reduced primary and secondary dormancy state, or both, and may play a crucial role in future plant adaptation to climate change. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The role of horizontal thermal advection in regulating wintertime mean and extreme temperatures over the central United States during the past and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Vavrus, S. J.

2017-12-01

Horizontal temperature advection plays an especially prominent role in affecting winter climate over continental interiors, where both climatological conditions and extreme weather are strongly regulated by transport of remote air masses. Central North America is one such region, and it experienced a major cold-air outbreak (CAO) a few years ago that some have related to amplified Arctic warming. Despite the known importance of dynamics in shaping the winter climate of this sector and the potential for climate change to modify heat transport, limited attention has been paid to the regional impact of thermal advection. Here, we use a reanalysis product and output from the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble to quantify the roles of zonal and meridional temperature advection over the central U. S. during winter, both in the late 20th and 21st centuries. We frame our findings as a "tug of war" between opposing influences of the two advection components and between these dynamical forcings vs. thermodynamic changes under greenhouse warming. For example, Arctic amplification leads to much warmer polar air masses, causing a moderation of cold-air advection into the central U. S., yet the model also simulates a wavier mean circulation and stronger northerly flow during CAOs, favoring lower regional temperatures. We also compare the predominant warming effect of zonal advection and overall cooling effect of meridional temperature advection as an additional tug of war. During both historical and future periods, zonal temperature advection is stronger than meridional advection over the Central U. S. The model simulates a future weakening of both zonal and meridional temperature advection, such that westerly flow provides less warming and northerly flow less cooling. On the most extreme warm days in the past and future, both zonal and meridional temperature advection have positive (warming) contributions. On the most extreme cold days, meridional cold air advection is more important than zonal warm air advection. CAOs in the future feature stronger northerly flow but less extreme temperatures (even relative to the warmer climate), exemplifying the complex competition between thermodynamic and dynamic influences.

Health impact of the 2008 cold spell on mortality in subtropical China: the climate and health impact national assessment study (CHINAs)

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Many studies have investigated heat wave related mortality, but less attention has been given to the health effects of cold spells in the context of global warming. The 2008 cold spell in China provided a unique opportunity to estimate the effects of the 2008 cold spell on mortality in subtropical regions, spatial heterogeneity of the effects, stratification effect and added effects caused by sustained cold days. Methods Thirty-six study communities were selected from 15 provinces in subtropical China. Daily mortality and meteorological data were collected for each community from 2006 to 2010. A distributed lag linear non-linear model (DLNM) with a lag structure of up to 27 days was used to analyze the association between the 2008 cold spell and mortality. Multivariate meta-analyses were used to combine the cold effects across each community. Results The 2008 cold spell increased mortality by 43.8% (95% CI: 34.8% ~ 53.4%) compared to non-cold spell days with the highest effects in southern and central China. The effects were more pronounced for respiratory mortality (RESP) than for cardiovascular (CVD) or cerebrovascular mortality (CBD), for females more than for males, and for the elderly aged ≥75 years old more than for younger people. Overall, 148,279 excess deaths were attributable to the 2008 cold spell. The cold effect was mainly from extreme low temperatures rather than sustained cold days during this 2008 cold spell. Conclusions The 2008 cold spell increased mortality in subtropical China, which was mainly attributable to the low temperature rather than the sustained duration of the cold spell. The cold effects were spatially heterogeneous and modified by individual-specific characteristics such as gender and age. PMID:25060645

Influences of frozen ground and climate change on hydrological processes in an alpine watershed: A case study in the upstream area of the Hei’he River, Northwest China

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Frozen soil prevails in cold regions and exerts significant influence on the hydrological cycle. In the context of climate warming, the spatial and temporal dynamics of frozen soil and hydrological processes also will change. How these changes inter-relate is a key challenge in studies of hydrologic...

iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model

Treesearch

Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

2011-01-01

This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

The influence of extreme seasonality on lake temperatures during Younger Dryas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schenk, F.; Stranne, C.; Wohlfarth, B.

2016-12-01

The Younger Dryas cold reversal ( 12.9 to 11.7 kyr BP) is the last abrupt climate change event interrupting the warming of the late deglaciation right before the onset of the Holocene. The spatial pattern of the cooling event seen in proxy data is largely consistent with those of climate simulations and suggests that the Younger Dryas is linked to a significant slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, despite the strong ocean cooling of up to 6 K along the European coasts and a significant southward extension of sea-ice during the Younger Dryas, different climate simulations do not reproduce summer cooling over Europe as seen in July lake temperature reconstructions based on chironomids. Aquatic plants used as climate indicator species do in contrast not show such a strong cooling and are more in line with climate simulations. To investigate this discrepancy, we use two numerical lake models driven by high resolution climate model output for the Younger Dryas and the preceding warm period of the late Alleröd ( 13 kyr BP). First, we investigate to which extent simulated lake temperatures in summer still reflect atmospheric summer temperatures despite a strong increase in seasonality during Younger Dryas. Because the (paleo-)lake depths are usually not well known, we use the lake models to test their sensitivity to changes in seasonality as a function of depth. Second, we artificially change the temperatures used as forcing for the lake models to investigate how cold air temperatures would need to be to match the up to 5 K July cooling suggested by chironomids. The results show that more care needs to be taken about the location and (paleo-)lake depths when comparing lake temperatures with simulated air temperatures. The simulated atmospheric circulation patterns during summer appears to be rather insensitive to the Younger Dryas cooling owing to the dominance of high atmospheric pressure over the Euro-Atlantic region. This would support a recent study linking extremely cold North Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies to severe heat waves in Europe since the 1980s (Duchez et al. 2016, ERL, Vol. 11, No. 7).

Examining the reproducibility of stable isotope ratios in the marine bivalve, Astarte borealis, from populations in the White Sea, Russia: implications for biological consequences of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNabb, Justin; Surge, Donna

2015-04-01

Shells of the marine bivalve, Astarte, are uniquely suited to investigate links between environmental/climate change and biological consequences because of their change in size and biogeographic distribution through time. For example, are there corresponding changes in lifespan and biogeographic distribution depending on warm vs. cold climate states? Does warm vs. cold climate state result in longer or shorter lifespans? Early studies of Astarte have documented a decrease in shell size through geologic time. Modern specimens are much smaller than those from the mid Pliocene at similar latitudes. Astarte had a wide latitudinal and cosmopolitan distribution in the western North Atlantic during the Oligocene to Pliocene. During the early Pleistocene, most of the warm-water species became extinct, and today, their biogeographic distribution is mostly restricted to the northern Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic Oceans. To answer questions linking biological consequences and climate change, we must first decipher ontogenetic changes in shell growth of modern specimens. Preliminary data using isotope sclerochronology identified slowed shell growth from late summer to winter in modern specimens from the White Sea, Russia, possibly triggered by increasing freshwater input and decreasing temperatures. Here, we present new data examining the reproducibility of isotopic time series and season of slowed growth among modern individuals collected at the same time from the same population.

Pliocene and Pleistocene geologic and climatic evolution in the San Luis Valley of south-central Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rogers, K.L.; Larson, E.E.; Smith, G.; Katzman, D.; Smith, G.R.; Cerling, T.; Wang, Y.; Baker, R.G.; Lohmann, K.C.; Repenning, C.A.; Patterson, P.; Mackie, G.

1992-01-01

Sediments of the Alamosa Formation spanning the upper part of the Gauss and most of the Matuyama Chrons were recovered by coring in the high (2300 m) San Luis Valley of south-central Colorado. The study site is located at the northern end of the Rio Grande rift. Lithologic changes in the core sediments provide evidence of events leading to integration of the San Luis drainage basin into the Rio Grande. The section, which includes the Huckleberry Ridge Ash (2.02 Ma) and spans the entire Matuyama Chron, contains pollen, and invertebrate and vertebrate fossils. Stable isotope analyses of inorganic and biogenic carbonate taken over most of the core indicate substantially warmer temperatures than occur today in the San Luis Valley. At the end of the Olduvai Subchron, summer precipitation decreased, summer pan evaporation increased, and temperatures increased slightly compared to the earlier climate represented in the core. By the end of the Jaramillo Subchron, however, cold/wet and warm/dry cycles become evident and continue into the cold/wet regime associated with the deep-sea oxygen-isotope Stage 22 glaciation previously determined from outcrops at the same locality. Correspondence between the Hansen Bluff climatic record and the deep-sea oxygen-isotope record (oxygen-isotope stages from about 110-18) is apparent, indicating that climate at Hansen Bluff was responding to global climatic changes. ?? 1992.

Glacial cold-water coral growth in the Gulf of Cádiz: Implications of increased palaeo-productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wienberg, Claudia; Frank, Norbert; Mertens, Kenneth N.; Stuut, Jan-Berend; Marchant, Margarita; Fietzke, Jan; Mienis, Furu; Hebbeln, Dierk

2010-10-01

A set of 40 Uranium-series datings obtained on the reef-forming scleractinian cold-water corals Lophelia pertusa and Madrepora oculata revealed that during the past 400 kyr their occurrence in the Gulf of Cádiz (GoC) was almost exclusively restricted to glacial periods. This result strengthens the outcomes of former studies that coral growth in the temperate NE Atlantic encompassing the French, Iberian and Moroccan margins dominated during glacial periods, whereas in the higher latitudes (Irish and Norwegian margins) extended coral growth prevailed during interglacial periods. Thus it appears that the biogeographical limits for sustained cold-water coral growth along the NE Atlantic margin are strongly related to climate change. By focussing on the last glacial-interglacial cycle, this study shows that palaeo-productivity was increased during the last glacial. This was likely driven by the fertilisation effect of an increased input of aeolian dust and locally intensified upwelling. After the Younger Dryas cold event, the input of aeolian dust and productivity significantly decreased concurrent with an increase in water temperatures in the GoC. This primarily resulted in reduced food availability and caused a widespread demise of the formerly thriving coral ecosystems. Moreover, these climate induced changes most likely caused a latitudinal shift of areas with optimum coral growth conditions towards the northern NE Atlantic where more suitable environmental conditions established with the onset of the Holocene.

Influence of prefermentative cold maceration on the color and anthocyanic copigmentation of organic Tempranillo wines elaborated in a warm climate.

PubMed

Gordillo, Belen; López-Infante, M Isabel; Ramírez-Pérez, Pilar; González-Miret, M Lourdes; Heredia, Francisco J

2010-06-09

The stabilization of red wine color by the copigmentation phenomenon is a crucial process that does not always proceed favorably under natural conditions during the first stages of vinification. The impact of the prefermentative cold maceration technique on the phenolic composition and magnitude of the copigmentation level of organic Tempranillo wines elaborated in a warm climate have been studied as an enological alternative to the traditional maceration for obtaining highly colored wines. Tristimulus colorimetry was applied to study the color of wines during vinification, and a high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) procedure was used for the analysis of phenolic compounds. Spectrophotometric and colorimetric analyses were also performed to evaluate the copigmentation level of the wines. Significant chemical and color differences were found depending on the maceration technique applied. Prefermentative cold macerated wines were richer in those compounds accounting directly for the color of red wine (anthocyanins) and those involved in anthocyanin stabilization through copigmentation reactions (phenols), which was in accordance with the higher copigmentation degree and darker, more saturated and vivid bluish colors. The evaluation of the copigmentation based on colorimetric parameters in the CIELAB color space showed that prefermentative cold maceration caused greater effectiveness of copigmentation than traditional maceration since it induces more important and hence more easily perceptible color changes.

Effects of lightweight outdoor clothing on the prevention of hypothermia during low-intensity exercise in the cold.

PubMed

Burtscher, Martin; Kofler, Philipp; Gatterer, Hannes; Faulhaber, Martin; Philippe, Marc; Fischer, Kathrin; Walther, Rebekka; Herten, Anne

2012-11-01

To study protective effects of windbreaker jacket and pants during exercise in the cold. Randomized pilot study. Climate chamber. Nine well-trained (V[Combining Dot Above]O2max 61.7 ± 6.6 mL/min/kg) sport students (6 male and 3 female participants). Subjects started walking for 1 hour in a climate chamber (0°C ambient temperature and wind speed of 10 km/h) at 70% V[Combining Dot Above]O2max wearing gloves, a T-shirt, and shorts. Then, the walking speed was reduced to 30% V[Combining Dot Above]O2max for an additional 60 minutes or until core temperature dropped below 35.5°C. Subsequently, 3 groups of 3 participants continued walking without change of clothing or obtaining additionally a cap and a windbreaker jacket or windbreaker jacket and pants. Core and skin temperature, thermal comfort. The main findings of this study were that exercising at 70% V[Combining Dot Above]O2max in the cold was sufficient to prevent hypothermia and that during low-intensity exercise (30% V[Combining Dot Above]O2max), the combined use of a polyester cap, lightweight windbreaker jacket, and pants was necessary to increase a prehypothermic core temperature. We strongly recommend taking a cap, windbreaker jacket, and pants for the prevention of hypothermia during exhaustive walking or running in cold weather conditions.

Strong tolerance to freezing is a major survival strategy in insects inhabiting central Yakutia (Sakha Republic, Russia), the coldest region on earth.

PubMed

Li, N G

2016-10-01

Yakutia is a part of eastern Siberia, located in north-eastern Russia. The climate of this area is very harsh even by Siberian standards, and is characterized by the absolute temperature minimum, which is below -64.4 °C, and a long period of low temperatures reaching to a range between -47 and -55 °C. Despite such a severe climate, the fauna and flora of Yakutia present a considerably rich biodiversity, suggesting a high adaptation potential of the organisms in this area. In this study, 30 local species of insects belonging to Coleoptera, Diptera and Lepidoptera were selected to investigate cold adaptation. The identification of the cold adaptation strategy was based on the measurement of the insect body supercooling point (SCP) and hemolymph ice-nucleating activity. According to the data collected, there is a high incidence of freeze tolerant species among the insects found in Yakutsk area (Yakutsk, 62° latitude, 130° longitude): 93.3% of them were freeze tolerant, and only 6.7% were freeze avoiding. It is suggested that the evolution of cold hardiness in this region preferably develops for the selection of the strong freeze tolerance that allow the insects to survive extreme cold conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Resource specialists lead local insect community turnover associated with temperature - analysis of an 18-year full-seasonal record of moths and beetles.

PubMed

Thomsen, Philip Francis; Jørgensen, Peter Søgaard; Bruun, Hans Henrik; Pedersen, Jan; Riis-Nielsen, Torben; Jonko, Krzysztof; Słowińska, Iwona; Rahbek, Carsten; Karsholt, Ole

2016-01-01

Insect responses to recent climate change are well documented, but the role of resource specialization in determining species vulnerability remains poorly understood. Uncovering local ecological effects of temperature change with high-quality, standardized data provides an important first opportunity for predictions about responses of resource specialists, and long-term time series are essential in revealing these responses. Here, we investigate temperature-related changes in local insect communities, using a sampling site with more than a quarter-million records from two decades (1992-2009) of full-season, quantitative light trapping of 1543 species of moths and beetles. We investigated annual as well as long-term changes in fauna composition, abundance and phenology in a climate-related context using species temperature affinities and local temperature data. Finally, we explored these local changes in the context of dietary specialization. Across both moths and beetles, temperature affinity of specialists increased through net gain of hot-dwelling species and net loss of cold-dwelling species. The climate-related composition of generalists remained constant over time. We observed an increase in species richness of both groups. Furthermore, we observed divergent phenological responses between cold- and hot-dwelling species, advancing and delaying their relative abundance, respectively. Phenological advances were particularly pronounced in cold-adapted specialists. Our results suggest an important role of resource specialization in explaining the compositional and phenological responses of insect communities to local temperature increases. We propose that resource specialists in particular are affected by local temperature increase, leading to the distinct temperature-mediated turnover seen for this group. We suggest that the observed increase in species number could have been facilitated by dissimilar utilization of an expanded growing season by cold- and hot-adapted species, as indicated by their oppositely directed phenological responses. An especially pronounced advancement of cold-adapted specialists suggests that such phenological advances might help minimize further temperature-induced loss of resource specialists. Although limited to a single study site, our results suggest several local changes in the insect fauna in concordance with expected change of larger-scale temperature increases. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Climate warming over the past half century has led to thermal degradation of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ran, Youhua; Li, Xin; Cheng, Guodong

2018-02-01

Air temperature increases thermally degrade permafrost, which has widespread impacts on engineering design, resource development, and environmental protection in cold regions. This study evaluates the potential thermal degradation of permafrost over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) from the 1960s to the 2000s using estimated decadal mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) by integrating remote-sensing-based estimates of mean annual land surface temperatures (MASTs), leaf area index (LAI) and fractional snow cover values, and decadal mean MAAT date from 152 weather stations with a geographically weighted regression (GWR). The results reflect a continuous rise of approximately 0.04 °C a-1 in the decadal mean MAAT values over the past half century. A thermal-condition classification matrix is used to convert modelled MAATs to permafrost thermal type. Results show that the climate warming has led to a thermal degradation of permafrost in the past half century. The total area of thermally degraded permafrost is approximately 153.76 × 104 km2, which corresponds to 88 % of the permafrost area in the 1960s. The thermal condition of 75.2 % of the very cold permafrost, 89.6 % of the cold permafrost, 90.3 % of the cool permafrost, 92.3 % of the warm permafrost, and 32.8 % of the very warm permafrost has been degraded to lower levels of thermal condition. Approximately 49.4 % of the very warm permafrost and 96 % of the likely thawing permafrost has degraded to seasonally frozen ground. The mean elevations of the very cold, cold, cool, warm, very warm, and likely thawing permafrost areas increased by 88, 97, 155, 185, 161, and 250 m, respectively. The degradation mainly occurred from the 1960s to the 1970s and from the 1990s to the 2000s. This degradation may lead to increased risks to infrastructure, reductions in ecosystem resilience, increased flood risks, and positive climate feedback effects. It therefore affects the well-being of millions of people and sustainable development at the Third Pole.

Methods of Evaluating Protective Clothing Relative to Heat and Cold Stress: Thermal Manikin, Biomedical Modeling, and Human Testing

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

in the climatic chamber housing the manikin. The most widely accepted test procedures for the operation of a TM are published by ASTM International...insulation value of a complete clothing ensemble. It requires a TM surface temperature of 35◦C and a climatic chamber controlled at 23◦C, 50% relative... climatic chamber controlled at 35◦C, 40% relative humidity, with a 0.4 m/sec air velocity. In addition to the tests conducted at 0.4 m/sec, USARIEM

Functional and phylogenetic relatedness in temporary wetland invertebrates: current macroecological patterns and implications for future climatic change scenarios.

PubMed

Ruhí, Albert; Boix, Dani; Gascón, Stéphanie; Sala, Jordi; Batzer, Darold P

2013-01-01

In freshwater ecosystems, species compositions are known to be determined hierarchically by large to small‑scale environmental factors, based on the biological traits of the organisms. However, in ephemeral habitats this heuristic framework remains largely untested. Although temporary wetland faunas are constrained by a local filter (i.e., desiccation), we propose its magnitude may still depend on large-scale climate characteristics. If this is true, climate should be related to the degree of functional and taxonomic relatedness of invertebrate communities inhabiting seasonal wetlands. We tested this hypothesis in two ways. First, based on 52 biological traits for invertebrates, we conducted a case study to explore functional trends among temperate seasonal wetlands differing in the harshness (i.e., dryness) of their dry season. After finding evidence of trait filtering, we addressed whether it could be generalized across a broader climatic scale. To this end, a meta-analysis (225 seasonal wetlands spread across broad climatic categories: Arid, Temperate, and Cold) allowed us to identify whether an equivalent climate-dependent pattern of trait richness was consistent between the Nearctic and the Western Palearctic. Functional overlap of invertebrates increased from mild (i.e., Temperate) to harsher climates (i.e., Arid and Cold), and phylogenetic clustering (using taxonomy as a surrogate) was highest in Arid and lowest in Temperate wetlands. We show that, (i) as has been described in streams, higher relatedness than would be expected by chance is generally observed in seasonal wetland invertebrate communities; and (ii) this relatedness is not constant but climate-dependent, with the climate under which a given seasonal wetland is located determining the functional overlap and the phylogenetic clustering of the community. Finally, using a space-for-time substitution approach we suggest our results may anticipate how the invertebrate biodiversity embedded in these vulnerable and often overlooked ecosystems will be affected by long-term climate change.

Functional and Phylogenetic Relatedness in Temporary Wetland Invertebrates: Current Macroecological Patterns and Implications for Future Climatic Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Ruhí, Albert; Boix, Dani; Gascón, Stéphanie; Sala, Jordi; Batzer, Darold P.

2013-01-01

In freshwater ecosystems, species compositions are known to be determined hierarchically by large to small‑scale environmental factors, based on the biological traits of the organisms. However, in ephemeral habitats this heuristic framework remains largely untested. Although temporary wetland faunas are constrained by a local filter (i.e., desiccation), we propose its magnitude may still depend on large-scale climate characteristics. If this is true, climate should be related to the degree of functional and taxonomic relatedness of invertebrate communities inhabiting seasonal wetlands. We tested this hypothesis in two ways. First, based on 52 biological traits for invertebrates, we conducted a case study to explore functional trends among temperate seasonal wetlands differing in the harshness (i.e., dryness) of their dry season. After finding evidence of trait filtering, we addressed whether it could be generalized across a broader climatic scale. To this end, a meta-analysis (225 seasonal wetlands spread across broad climatic categories: Arid, Temperate, and Cold) allowed us to identify whether an equivalent climate-dependent pattern of trait richness was consistent between the Nearctic and the Western Palearctic. Functional overlap of invertebrates increased from mild (i.e., Temperate) to harsher climates (i.e., Arid and Cold), and phylogenetic clustering (using taxonomy as a surrogate) was highest in Arid and lowest in Temperate wetlands. We show that, (i) as has been described in streams, higher relatedness than would be expected by chance is generally observed in seasonal wetland invertebrate communities; and (ii) this relatedness is not constant but climate-dependent, with the climate under which a given seasonal wetland is located determining the functional overlap and the phylogenetic clustering of the community. Finally, using a space-for-time substitution approach we suggest our results may anticipate how the invertebrate biodiversity embedded in these vulnerable and often overlooked ecosystems will be affected by long-term climate change. PMID:24312347

The post-LGM deglaciation in Central and Southeast Switzerland: New insights from surface exposure dating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boxleitner, Max; Maisch, Max; Brandova, Dagmar; Egli, Markus; Ochs, Susan Ivy; Christl, Marcus

2017-04-01

The deglaciation of the Alps after the Last Glacial Maximum was not a linear process. Moraines as traces of glacier re-advances show that the climate within the general Late-Pleistocene-warming is characterized by repeated cold intervals. While moraine series resulting from these cold spells have been already described for many Alpine valleys at the beginning of the 20th century, absolute chronologies of the Lateglacial climate and glacier development are still fragmentary. The advent of surface exposure dating as a new absolute dating method some 30 years ago made it possible to directly target the deposition-age of moraines. But still many questions regarding the local-to-regional glacier development and its coupling to the overall climate change remain open. In the framework of my PhD-project we study key sites in Central (Uri) and Southeast (Engadine) Switzerland with the aim to develop an absolute post-LGM chronology. More than 50 rock-samples from boulders of different moraine complexes from both regions have been analyzed using 10Be-surface-expsure-dating. Our results show that especially the Younger Dryas plays not unexpected an important role as a very pronounced cold interval. With our results we will refine the understanding of the glacier development in the Swiss Alps during the Lateglacial and the Holocene and improve estimates of equilibrium lines of altitude (ELA) of glaciers from the LGM to the beginning of the Holocene.

Accounts from 19th-century Canadian Arctic explorers' logs reflect present climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, James E.; Wood, Kevin

The widely perceived failure of 19th-century expeditions to find and transit the Northwest Passage in the Canadian Arctic is often attributed to extraordinary cold climatic conditions associated with the “Little Ice Age” evident in proxy records. However, examination of 44 explorers' logs for the western Arctic from 1818 to 1910 reveals that climate indicators such as navigability, the distribution and thickness of annual sea ice, monthly surface air temperature, and the onset of melt and freeze were within the present range of variability.The quest for the Northwest Passage through the Canadian archipelago during the 19th century is frequently seen as a vain and tragic failure. Polar exploration during the Victorian era seems to us today to have been a costly exercise in heroic futility, which in many respects it was. This perspective has been reinforced since the 1970s, when paleoclimate reconstructions based on Arctic ice core stratigraphy appeared to confirm the existence of exceptionally cold conditions consistent with the period glaciologists had termed the “Little Ice Age” (Figure 1a), with temperatures more than one standard deviation colder relative to an early 20th-century mean [Koerner, 1977; Koerner and Fisher, 1990; Overpeck et al., 1998]. In recent years, the view of the Little Ice Age as a synchronous worldwide and prolonged cold epoch that ended with modern warming has been questioned [Bradley and Jones, 1993; Jones and Briffa, 2001 ;Ogilvie, 2001].

Holocene cold storage practices on the eastern Snake River Plain: A risk-mitigation strategy for lean times

DOE PAGES

Byers, David A.; Henrikson, L. Suzann; Breslawski, Ryan P.

2016-06-04

Previous archaeological research in southern Idaho has suggested that climate change over the past 8000 years was not dramatic enough to alter long-term subsistence practices in the region. However, recent isotopic analyses of bison remains from cold storage caves on the Snake River Plain contest this hypothesis. Our results, when examined against an archaeoclimate model, suggest that cold storage episodes coincided with drier, warmer phases that likely reduced forage and water, and thus limited the availability of bison on the open steppe. Within this context we build a risk model to illustrate how environment might have motivated cold storage behaviors.more » Caching bison in cold lava tubes would have mitigated both intra-annual and inter-annual food shortages under these conditions. This analysis also suggests that skeletal fat, more than meat, may have influenced the selection, transport and storage of bison carcass parts. We deciphered when and how cold storage caves which was used to provide a more comprehensive understanding of foraging behaviors in a broad range of hunting-gathering economies.« less

NCAR CCM2 simulation of the modern Antarctic climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tzeng, Ren-Yow; Bromwich, David H.; Parish, Thomas R.; Chen, Biao

1994-01-01

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) community climate model version 2 (CCM2) simulation of the circumpolar trough, surface air temperature, the polar vortex, cloudiness, winds, and atmospheric moisture and energy budgets are examined to validate the model's representation of the present-day Antarctic climate. The results show that the CCM2 can well simulate many important climate features over Antarctica, such as the location and intensity of the circumpolar trough, the coreless winter over the plateau, the intensity and horizontal distribution of the surface inversion, the speed and streamline pattern of the katabatic winds, the double jet stream feature over the southern Indian and Pacific oceans, and the arid climate over the continent. However, there are also some serious errors in the model. Some are due to old problems but some are caused by the new parameterizations in the model. The model errors over high southern latitudes can be summarized as follows: The circumpolar trough, the polar vertex, and the westerlies in midlatitudes are too strong; the semiannual cycle of the circumpolar trough is distorted compared to the observations; the low centers of the circumpolar trough and the troughs in the middle and upper troposphere are shifted eastward by 15 deg - 40 deg longitude; the surface temperatures are too cold over the plateau in summer and over the coastline in winter; the polar tropopause continues to have a cold bias; and the cloudiness is too high over the continent. These biases are induced by two major factors: (1) the cloud optical properties in tropical and middle latitudes, which cause the eastward shift of troughs and surface low centers and the error in the semiannual cycle, and (2) the cold bias of the surface air temperature, which is attributed to the oversimulation of cloudiness over the continent, especially during summer, and the uniform 2-m-thick sea ice. The constant thickness of sea ice suppresses the energy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and hence reduces the air temperature near the coast during winter. Finally, although the simulated Antarctic climate still suffers these biases, the overall performance of the CCM2 is much better than that of the CCM1-T42. Therefore the CCM2 is good enough to be used for climate change studies, especially over Antarctica.

Trends and Bioclimatic Assessment of Extreme Indices: Emerging Insights for Rainfall Derivative Crop Microinsurance in Central-West Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Awolala, D. O.

2015-12-01

Scientific predictions have forecasted increasing economic losses by which farming households will be forced to consider new adaptation pathways to close the food gap and be income secure. Pro-poor adaptation planning decisions therefore must rely on location-specific details from systematic assessment of extreme climate indices to provide template for most suitable financial adaptation instruments. This paper examined critical loss point to water stress in maize production and risk-averse behaviour to extreme local climate in Central West Nigeria. Trends of extreme indices and bio-climatic assessment based on RClimDex for numerical weather predictions were carried out using a 3-decade time series daily observational climate data of the sub-humid region. The study reveals that the flowering and seed formation stage was identified as the most critical loss point when seed formation is a function of per unit soil water available for uptake. The sub-humid has a bi-modal rainfall pattern but faces longer dry spell with a fast disappearing mild climate measured by budyko evaporation of 80.1%. Radiation index of dryness of 1.394 confirms the region is rapidly becoming drier at an evaporation rate of 949 mm/year and rainfall deficit of 366 mm/year. Net primary production from rainfall is fast declining by 1634 g(DM)/m2/year. These conditions influenced by monthly rainfall uncertainties are associated with losses of standing crops because farmers are uncertain of rainfall probability distribution especially during most important vegetative stage. In a simulated warmer climate, an absolute dryness of months was observed compared with 4 dry months in a normal climate which explains triggers of food deficits and income losses. Positive coefficients of tropical nights (TR20), warm nights (TN90P) and warm days (TX90P), and the negative coefficient of cold days (TX10P) with time are significant at P<0.05. The increasing gradient of warm spell indicator (WSDI), the decreasing gradients of cold nights (TN10P) and cold days (TX10P) are added evidence of aridity arising from increasing rainfall deficits. This paper recommends that the region needs rainfall-based index microinsurance adaptation financial instruments capable of sharing covariate shocks with farmers within an incentive-based risk sharing framework.

Evaluation of cold workplaces: an overview of standards for assessment of cold stress.

PubMed

Holmér, Ingvar

2009-07-01

Many persons world wide are exposed to cold environments, either indoors for example in cold stores, or outdoors. Cold is a hazard to health and may affect safety and performance of work. Basis for the creation of safe and optimal working conditions may be obtained by the application of relevant international standards. ISO 11079 presents a method for evaluation of whole body heat balance. On the basis of climate and activity a required clothing insulation (IREQ) for heat balance is determined. For clothing with known insulation value an exposure time limited is calculated. ISO 11079 also includes criteria for assessment of local cooling. Finger temperatures should not be below 24 degrees C during prolonged exposures or 15 degrees C occasionally. Wind chill temperature indicates the risk of bare skin to freeze for combinations of wind and low temperatures. Special protection of airways is recommended at temperatures below -20 degrees C, in particular during heavy work. Additional standards are available describing evaluation strategies, work place observation checklists and checklist for medical screening. Risks associated with contact with cold surfaces can be evaluated with ISO 13732. The strategy and principles for assessment and prevention of cold stress are reviewed in this paper.

Windowpane flounder (Scophthalmus aquosus) and winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) responses to cold temperature extremes in a Northwest Atlantic estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilber, Dara H.; Clarke, Douglas G.; Alcoba, Catherine M.; Gallo, Jenine

2016-01-01

The effect of climate variability on flatfish includes not only the effects of warming on sensitive life history stages, but also impacts from more frequent or unseasonal extreme cold temperatures. Cold weather events can affect the overwintering capabilities of flatfish near their low temperature range limits. We examined the responses of two flatfish species, the thin-bodied windowpane (Scophthalmus aquosus) and cold-tolerant winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus), to variable winter temperatures in a Northwest Atlantic estuary using abundance and size data collected during a monitoring study, the Aquatic Biological Survey, conducted from 2002 to 2010. Winter and spring abundances of small (50 to 120 mm total length) juvenile windowpane were positively correlated with adult densities (spawning stock) and fall temperatures (thermal conditions experienced during post-settlement development for the fall-spawned cohort) of the previous year. Windowpane abundances in the estuary were significantly reduced and the smallest size class was nearly absent after several consecutive years with cold (minimum temperatures < 1 °C) winters. Interannual variation in winter flounder abundances was unrelated to the severity of winter temperatures. A Paulik diagram illustrates strong positive correlations between annual abundances of sequential winter flounder life history stages (egg, larval, Age-1 juvenile, and adult male) within the estuary, reflecting residency within the estuary through their first year of life. Temperature variables representing conditions during winter flounder larval and post-settlement development were not significant factors in multiple regression models exploring factors that affect juvenile abundances. Likewise, densities of predators known to consume winter flounder eggs and/or post-settlement juveniles were not significantly related to interannual variation in winter flounder juvenile abundances. Colder estuarine temperatures through the first year of life were associated with smaller Age-1 winter flounder body size. For example, Age-1 winter flounder developing under conditions that differed by 1.9 °C in mean daily water temperature, averaged 98.7 mm total length (TL) and 123.1 mm TL, for the relatively cold vs. moderate years, respectively. More frequent cold temperature extremes associated with climate variability may negatively impact the overwintering capabilities of some flatfish near their cold temperature range limits, whereas cold-tolerant species may experience reduced growth, which imparts the ecological challenges associated with smaller body size.

Tropical climate changes at millennial and orbital timescales on the Bolivian Altiplano.

PubMed

Baker, P A; Rigsby, C A; Seltzer, G O; Fritz, S C; Lowenstein, T K; Bacher, N P; Veliz, C

2001-02-08

Tropical South America is one of the three main centres of the global, zonal overturning circulation of the equatorial atmosphere (generally termed the 'Walker' circulation). Although this area plays a key role in global climate cycles, little is known about South American climate history. Here we describe sediment cores and down-hole logging results of deep drilling in the Salar de Uyuni, on the Bolivian Altiplano, located in the tropical Andes. We demonstrate that during the past 50,000 years the Altiplano underwent important changes in effective moisture at both orbital (20,000-year) and millennial timescales. Long-duration wet periods, such as the Last Glacial Maximum--marked in the drill core by continuous deposition of lacustrine sediments--appear to have occurred in phase with summer insolation maxima produced by the Earth's precessional cycle. Short-duration, millennial events correlate well with North Atlantic cold events, including Heinrich events 1 and 2, as well as the Younger Dryas episode. At both millennial and orbital timescales, cold sea surface temperatures in the high-latitude North Atlantic were coeval with wet conditions in tropical South America, suggesting a common forcing.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Byers, David A.; Henrikson, L. Suzann; Breslawski, Ryan P.

Previous archaeological research in southern Idaho has suggested that climate change over the past 8000 years was not dramatic enough to alter long-term subsistence practices in the region. However, recent isotopic analyses of bison remains from cold storage caves on the Snake River Plain contest this hypothesis. Our results, when examined against an archaeoclimate model, suggest that cold storage episodes coincided with drier, warmer phases that likely reduced forage and water, and thus limited the availability of bison on the open steppe. Within this context we build a risk model to illustrate how environment might have motivated cold storage behaviors.more » Caching bison in cold lava tubes would have mitigated both intra-annual and inter-annual food shortages under these conditions. This analysis also suggests that skeletal fat, more than meat, may have influenced the selection, transport and storage of bison carcass parts. We deciphered when and how cold storage caves which was used to provide a more comprehensive understanding of foraging behaviors in a broad range of hunting-gathering economies.« less

Climate risks on potato yield in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xun; Lall, Upmanu

2016-04-01

The yield of potatoes is affected by water and temperature during the growing season. We study the impact of a suite of climate variables on potato yield at country level. More than ten climate variables related to the growth of potato are considered, including the seasonal rainfall and temperature, but also extreme conditions at different averaging periods from daily to monthly. A Bayesian hierarchical model is developed to jointly consider the risk of heat stress, cold stress, wet and drought. Future climate risks are investigated through the projection of future climate data. This study contributes to assess the risks of present and future climate risks on potatoes yield, especially the risks of extreme events, which could be used to guide better sourcing strategy and ensure food security in the future.

Properties of volcanic soils in cold climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, Elena

2017-04-01

Layers of volcanic ash and the Andosol soils derived from them may play an important role in preserving snow and ice as well as developing permafrost conditions in the immediate vicinity of volcanoes of high elevation or those situated at high latitudes, and land areas, often distant from volcanic activity that are either prone to permafrost or covered by snow and ice, but are affected by the deposition of subaerial ash. The special properties of volcanic ash that are responsible are critically reviewed particularly in relation to recent research in Kamchatka in the Far East of Russia. Of particular importance are the thermal properties and the unfrozen water contents of ash layers and the rate at which the weathering of volcanic glass takes place. Volcanic glass is the most easily weathered component of volcanic ejecta (Shoji et al., 1993; Kimble et al., 2000). There are many specific environmental conditions, including paleoclimate and present-day climate, the composition of volcanic tephra and glaciation history, which cause the differences in weathering and development of volcanic ash soils (Zehetner et al., 2003). The preservation of in situ, unweathered, and unaltered surficial ash-fall deposits in the cold regions has important implications for paleoclimate and glacial history. Ash-fall deposits, which trap and preserve the soils, sediments, and landforms on which they fall, can be used to resolve local climate conditions (temperature and moisture) at the ash site during ash-fall deposition. The preservation of detailed sedimentary features (e.g. bedding in the ash, sharpness of stratigraphic contacts) can tell us about their post-depositional history, whether they have been redeposited by wind or water, or overridden by glaciers (Marchant et al., 1996). Weathering of volcanic glass results in the development of amorphous clay minerals (e.g. allophane, opal, palagonite) but this takes place much slower in cold than under warmer climate conditions. Only few studies on weathering of volcanic ash and developing volcanic soils under cold climatic conditions were carried out, especially in areas with permafrost (Bäumler, 2003). Most of research on volcanic permafrost soils was done in Yukon (Canada), Kamchatka (Russia), and Antarctica, or on seasonal frost in mountain area in Iceland, Japan, New Zealand, and Ecuador. Soils of Iceland and Antarctica are used as terrestrial analogs to Martian soils (Gooding & Keil, 1978; Allen et al., 1981). The review of existing data demonstrates that there is a strong correlation between the thermal conductivity, the water-ice content, and the mineralogy of the weathered part of the volcanic ash, enhanced amount of amorphous clay minerals (allophane, palagonite) increase the proportion of unfrozen water and decrease thermal conductivity (Kuznetsova et al., 2012, 2013; Kuznetsova & Motenko, 2014), and amorphous silica does not alter to halloysite or other clay minerals even in ashes of Early Pleistocene age (Kamchatka) or Miocene and Pliocene deposits (Antarctica) due to cold temperatures. The significance of these findings is discussed in relation to the reconstruction of past climates and the influence of volcanic ash on permafrost aggradation and degradation, snow and ice ablation, and the development of glaciers.

Science You Can Use Bulletin: Upwardly mobile in the western U.S. desert: Blackbrush shrublands respond to a changing climate

Treesearch

Sue Miller; Susan Meyer; Bryce Richardson; Rosemary Pendleton; Burton Pendleton; Stanley Kitchen

2013-01-01

Blackbrush (Colegyne ramosissima) is a desert shrubland species that is currently dominant on over three million acres of the transition zone between the cold desert of the Great Basin and the warm desert of the southwestern United States. Western landscapes are projected to experience unprecedented changes as the climate warms, and researchers at the Rocky Mountain...

The Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue Simulated by IPCC AR4 Coupled GCMs: Upper Ocean Heat Budget and Feedback Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-15

ET AL .: THE PACIFIC COLD TONGUE BIAS ANALYSIS C05024 circulation, which intensifies the surface easterly winds over the Pacific Basin, further...productivity, and in carbon cycling since it is the major oceanic source of C02 for the atmosphere [Field et al , 1998; Calvo et al , 2011]. Large SST anomalies...used for climate predictions and projec- tions [Neelin et al , 1992; Mechoso et al , 1995; Delecluse et al , 1998; Laufet al , 2001; Davey

Impacts of Large-Scale Circulation on Convection: A 2-D Cloud Resolving Model Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, X; Sui, C.-H.; Lau, K.-M.

1999-01-01

Studies of impacts of large-scale circulation on convection, and the roles of convection in heat and water balances over tropical region are fundamentally important for understanding global climate changes. Heat and water budgets over warm pool (SST=29.5 C) and cold pool (SST=26 C) were analyzed based on simulations of the two-dimensional cloud resolving model. Here the sensitivity of heat and water budgets to different sizes of warm and cold pools is examined.

Chironomids as indicators of natural and human impacts in a 700-yr record from the northern Patagonian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Natalia; Rieradevall, Maria; Añón Suárez, Diego; Rizzo, Andrea; Daga, Romina; Ribeiro Guevara, Sergio; Arribére, María Angélica

2016-09-01

Chironomid communities were studied in a sediment core collected from Lake Moreno Oeste, located in Nahuel Huapi National Park. A major change in midge assemblages occurred at ∼AD 1760, which was characterized by a decrease of "cold taxa" including Polypedilum sp.2 and Dicrotendipes, and an increase of "warm taxa" including Apsectrotanypus and Polypedilum sp.1. These taxa are likely related to climatic conditions concurrent with the end of a cold period at ∼AD 1500-1700 and the beginning of a drying climate at ∼AD 1740-1900 in northern Patagonia. Coarse tephra layers had low midge diversity; however they did not disrupt the climatic trend as the community recovered rapidly after the event. Since AD 1910, after the increase in suburban housing, fish introduction, and the construction of a road, there was an increase in the relative abundances of taxa typically associated with the littoral zone, such as Parapsectrocladius, Riethia, Apsectrotanypus, and some Tanytarsini morphotypes. The main change in the chironomid community appears to be associated with long-term climate change. At the beginning of the 20th century, other site-specific environmental factors (catchment change and fish introduction) altered the chironomid assemblages, making it more difficult to understand the relative importance of each driver of assemblage change.

Abrupt climate change around 4 ka BP: Role of the Thermohaline circulation as indicated by a GCM experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shaowu; Zhou, Tianjun; Cai, Jingning; Zhu, Jinhong; Xie, Zhihui; Gong, Daoyi

2004-04-01

A great deal of palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic evidence suggests that a predominant temperature drop and an aridification occurred at ca. 4.0 ka BP. Palaeoclimate studies in China support this dedution. The collapse of ancient civilizations at ca. 4.0 ka BP in the Nile Valley and Mesopotamia has been attributed to climate-induced aridification. A widespread alternation of the ancient cultures was also found in China at ca. 4.0 ka BP in concert with the collapse of the civilizations in the Old World. Palaeoclimatic studies indicate that the abrupt climate change at 4.0 ka BP is one of the realizations of the cold phase in millennial scale climate oscillations, which may be related to the modulation of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) over the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, this study conducts a numerical experiment of a GCM with SST forcing to simulate the impact of the weakening of the THC. Results show a drop in temperature from North Europe, the northern middle East Asia, and northern East Asia and a significant reduction of precipitation in East Africa, the Middle East, the Indian Peninsula, and the Yellow River Valley. This seems to support the idea that coldness and aridification at ca. 4.0 ka BP was caused by the weakening of the THC.

How ice age climate got the shakes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, R.A.

1993-05-14

Records in Greenland ice, ocean mud, and ancient corals are revealing abrupt climate shifts during the last ice age. The climate at the end of the last ice age apparently jumped from cold to warmer conditions, jumped back to cold, and then jumped into the present warm weather conditions. The mechanism for this erratic behavior is unknown, but appears to be an interaction of North Atlantic ocean currents and the ice sheets themselves. Warm water from the tropics would evaporate and become more saline and dense as it moved north. The colder, denser water would then sink and flow backmore » to the tropics. The melting of ice caused by the warm water would decrease the salinity of the North Atlantic current, the water would not sink, the return current would be shut down, and the waters surrounding the ice sheets would become colder, slowing melting of the sheets. The cycle could be started again by collapse of the ice sheets from their internal heat. There may be other switches that could cause sudden climate change, as may be evidenced by links between changes in the Pacific and a decade of erratic weather in North America. Researcher would like to identify these switches to prevent them from being activated by human activity.« less

Prevalence of cold-related complaints, symptoms and injuries in the general population: the FINRISK 2002 cold substudy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raatikka, Veli-Pekka; Rytkönen, Mika; Näyhä, Simo; Hassi, Juhani

2007-05-01

The prevalence of cold-related complaints and symptoms in the general population has remained unknown. As part of the nationwide FINRISK 2002 health survey performed in Finland, 8,723 people aged 25 64 years filled in a questionnaire asking about the number of hours spent weekly in cold air, their sensations during cold exposure, cold-related complaints, symptoms of diseases, and degradation of performance. Cold thermal sensations at +5°C to -5°C were reported by 35% of men and 46% of women. Almost all subjects reported at least some cold-related complaints, most commonly musculoskeletal pain (men 30%, women 27%), followed by respiratory (25% / 29%), white finger (15% / 18%) and episodic peripheral circulation symptoms (12% / 15%). Decreased mental or physical performance in cold was reported by 75% of men and 70% of women, most commonly impairing manual dexterity and tactile sense. With declining temperature, the first symptom to emerge was pain in the elbow or the forearm (at -3°C), followed by increased excretion of mucus from the lungs (-5°C), while most other symptoms appeared only at lower temperatures of -15°C to -20°C. Most symptoms showed little or no association with the weekly duration of exposure, with the exception of cold-induced pain at most sites. Although, in general, Finns are well adapted to the cold climate, the high prevalence of cold-related complaints poses a challenge to the health care system in terms of decreased performance and the possibility that such symptoms predict more serious health effects, such as increased mortality.

Climate change and temperature extremes: A review of heat- and cold-related morbidity and mortality concerns of municipalities.

PubMed

Gronlund, Carina J; Sullivan, Kyle P; Kefelegn, Yonathan; Cameron, Lorraine; O'Neill, Marie S

2018-08-01

Cold and hot weather are associated with mortality and morbidity. Although the burden of temperature-associated mortality may shift towards high temperatures in the future, cold temperatures may represent a greater current-day problem in temperate cities. Hot and cold temperature vulnerabilities may coincide across several personal and neighborhood characteristics, suggesting opportunities for increasing present and future resilience to extreme temperatures. We present a narrative literature review encompassing the epidemiology of cold- and heat-related mortality and morbidity, related physiologic and environmental mechanisms, and municipal responses to hot and cold weather, illustrated by Detroit, Michigan, USA, a financially burdened city in an economically diverse metropolitan area. The Detroit area experiences sharp increases in mortality and hospitalizations with extreme heat, while cold temperatures are associated with more gradual increases in mortality, with no clear threshold. Interventions such as heating and cooling centers may reduce but not eliminate temperature-associated health problems. Furthermore, direct hemodynamic responses to cold, sudden exertion, poor indoor air quality and respiratory epidemics likely contribute to cold-related mortality. Short- and long-term interventions to enhance energy and housing security and housing quality may reduce temperature-related health problems. Extreme temperatures can increase morbidity and mortality in municipalities like Detroit that experience both extreme heat and prolonged cold seasons amidst large socioeconomic disparities. The similarities in physiologic and built-environment vulnerabilities to both hot and cold weather suggest prioritization of strategies that address both present-day cold and near-future heat concerns. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Role of cold surge and MJO on rainfall enhancement over indonesia during east asian winter monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fauzi, R. R.; Hidayat, R.

2018-05-01

Intensity of precipitation in Indonesia is influenced by convection and propagation of southwest wind. Objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between cold surge and the phenomenon of intra-seasonal climate variability Madden-julian Oscillation (MJO) for affecting precipitation in Indonesia. The data used for identifying the occurrence of cold surge are meridional wind speed data from the ERA-Interim. In addition, this study also used RMM1 and RMM2 index data from Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) for identifying MJO events. The results showed that during East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) in 15 years (2000-2015), there are 362 cold surge events, 186 MJO events, and 113 cold surge events were associated with MJO events. The spread of cold surge can penetrate to equator and brought mass of water vapor that causes dominant precipitation in the Indonesian Sea up to 50-75% from climatological precipitation during EAWM. The MJO convection activity that moves from west to east also increases precipitation, but the distribution of rainfall is wider than cold surge, especially in Eastern Indonesia. MJO and cold surge simultaneously can increase rainfall over 100-150% in any Indonesian region that affected by MJO and cold surge events. The mechanism of heavy rainfall is illustrated by high activity of moisture transport in areas such as Java Sea and coastal areas of Indonesia.

Polar Marine Microorganisms and Climate Change.

PubMed

Verde, C; Giordano, D; Bellas, C M; di Prisco, G; Anesio, A M

2016-01-01

The large diversity of marine microorganisms harboured by oceans plays an important role in planet sustainability by driving globally important biogeochemical cycles; all primary and most secondary production in the oceans is performed by microorganisms. The largest part of the planet is covered by cold environments; consequently, cold-adapted microorganisms have crucial functional roles in globally important environmental processes and biogeochemical cycles cold-adapted extremophiles are a remarkable model to shed light on the molecular basis of survival at low temperature. The indigenous populations of Antarctic and Arctic microorganisms are endowed with genetic and physiological traits that allow them to live and effectively compete at the temperatures prevailing in polar regions. Some genes, e.g. glycosyltransferases and glycosylsynthetases involved in the architecture of the cell wall, may have been acquired/retained during evolution of polar strains or lost in tropical strains. This present work focusses on temperature and its role in shaping microbial adaptations; however, in assessing the impacts of climate changes on microbial diversity and biogeochemical cycles in polar oceans, it should not be forgotten that physiological studies need to include the interaction of temperature with other abiotic and biotic factors. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

Alpine glacier-fed turbid lakes are discontinuous cold polymictic rather than dimictic

PubMed Central

Peter, Hannes; Sommaruga, Ruben

2017-01-01

Abstract Glacier retreat as a consequence of climate change influences freshwater ecosystems in manifold ways, yet the physical and chemical bases of these effects are poorly studied. Here, we characterize how water temperature differs between alpine lakes with and without direct glacier influence on seasonal and diurnal timescales. Using high temporal resolution monitoring of temperature in 4 lakes located in a catchment influenced by glacier retreat, we reported unexpectedly high surface temperatures, even in proglacial lakes located 2600 m a.s.l. Cold glacier meltwater and low nighttime air temperatures caused a distinct diurnal pattern of water temperature in the water column of glacier-influenced lakes. Precipitation onto glacier surfaces apparently leads to rapid cooling of the glacier-fed lakes and disrupts the thermal stratification with several mixing events during the summer. Taken together, these mechanisms contribute to the unique seasonal and diurnal dynamics of glacier-influenced lakes that contrast with the typical dimictic pattern of clear alpine lakes and represent an example of discontinuous cold polymictic lake type. This work contributes to the basic description of how climate and meteorology affect the physical properties of an increasingly common lake type. PMID:28690780

Cryoprotection in dampwood termites (Termopsidae, Isoptera).

PubMed

Lacey, Michael J; Lenz, Michael; Evans, Theodore A

2010-01-01

In contrast to the majority of the Order, the dampwood termites of the family Termopsidae found in colder regions can experience frost and snow, either in cool temperate areas at high latitudes (45 degrees ), or alpine areas at high elevations (>1000m). This suggests that dampwood termites are adapted to cold climates. We investigated this hypothesis in two dampwood termites, Porotermes adamsoni Froggatt and Stolotermes victoriensis Hill. We measured nest temperatures and atmospheric temperatures of their alpine habitat during winter, and measured survival and recovery at subzero temperatures. We also determined the minimum temperature at which these species remain active and the LT50 values. We used a novel gas chromatographic strategy to examine eight metabolites from individuals of both species collected in winter and summer to identify possible cryoprotectants. Both P. adamsoni and S. victoriensis had significantly higher levels of trehalose, a known cryoprotectant, in winter than in summer; in addition S. victoriensis also had higher levels of unsaturated fatty acid ligands in winter than in summer, consistent with patterns observed for cold adaptation in other organisms. These results are the first to reveal that dampwood termites are adapted to cold climates and use trehalose and unsaturated lipids as cryoprotectants.

Late Pliocene and Quaternary Eurasian locust infestations in the Canary Archipelago

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meco, J.; Muhs, D.R.; Fontugne, M.; Ramos, A.J.; Lomoschitz, A.; Patterson, D.

2011-01-01

The Canary Archipelago has long been a sensitive location to record climate changes of the past. Interbedded with its basalt lavas are marine deposits from the principal Pleistocene interglacials, as well as aeolian sands with intercalated palaeosols. The palaeosols contain African dust and innumerable relict egg pods of a temperate-region locust (cf. Dociostaurus maroccanusThunberg 1815). New ecological and stratigraphical information reveals the geological history of locust plagues (or infestations) and their palaeoclimatic significance. Here, we show that the first arrival of the plagues to the Canary Islands from Africa took place near the end of the Pliocene, ca. 3Ma, and reappeared with immense strength during the middle Late Pleistocene preceding MIS (marine isotope stage) 11 (ca. 420ka), MIS 5.5 (ca. 125ka) and probably during other warm interglacials of the late Middle Pleistocene and the Late Pleistocene. During the Early Holocene, locust plagues may have coincided with a brief cool period in the current interglacial. Climatically, locust plagues on the Canaries are a link in the chain of full-glacial arid-cold climate (calcareous dunes), early interglacial arid-sub-humid climate (African dust inputs and locust plagues), peak interglacial warm-humid climate (marine deposits with Senegalese fauna), transitional arid-temperate climate (pedogenic calcretes), and again full-glacial arid-cold climate (calcareous dunes) oscillations. During the principal interglacials of the Pleistocene, the Canary Islands recorded the migrations of warm Senegalese marine faunas to the north, crossing latitudes in the Euro-African Atlantic. However, this northward marine faunal migration was preceded in the terrestrial realm by interglacial infestations of locusts. ??? Locust plagues, Canary Islands, Late Pliocene, Pleistocene, Holocene, palaeoclimatology. ?? 2010 The Authors, Lethaia ?? 2010 The Lethaia Foundation.

A comparison of the climates of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and Current Warm Period reconstructed using coral records from the northern South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Wenfeng; Liu, Xi; Chen, Xuefei; Wei, Gangjian; Zeng, Ti; Xie, Luhua; Zhao, Jian-xin

2017-01-01

For the global oceans, the characteristics of high-resolution climate changes during the last millennium remain uncertain because of the limited availability of proxy data. This study reconstructs climate conditions using annually resolved coral records from the South China Sea (SCS) to provide new insights into climate change over the last millennium. The results indicate that the climate of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 900-1300) was similar to that of the Current Warm Period (CWP, AD 1850-present), which contradicts previous studies. The similar warmth levels for the MCA and CWP have also been recorded in the Makassar Strait of Indonesia, which suggests that the MCA was not warmer than the CWP in the western Pacific and that this may not have been a globally uniform change. Hydrological conditions were drier/saltier during the MCA and similar to those of the CWP. The drier/saltier MCA and CWP in the western Pacific may be associated with the reduced precipitation caused by variations in the Pacific Walker Circulation. As for the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1550-1850), the results from this study, together with previous data from the Makassar Strait, indicate a cold and wet period compared with the CWP and the MCA in the western Pacific. The cold LIA period agrees with the timing of the Maunder sunspot minimum and is therefore associated with low solar activity. The fresher/wetter LIA in the western Pacific may have been caused by the synchronized retreat of both the East Asian Summer Monsoon and the Australian Monsoon.

Three keys to the radiation of angiosperms into freezing environments.

PubMed

Zanne, Amy E; Tank, David C; Cornwell, William K; Eastman, Jonathan M; Smith, Stephen A; FitzJohn, Richard G; McGlinn, Daniel J; O'Meara, Brian C; Moles, Angela T; Reich, Peter B; Royer, Dana L; Soltis, Douglas E; Stevens, Peter F; Westoby, Mark; Wright, Ian J; Aarssen, Lonnie; Bertin, Robert I; Calaminus, Andre; Govaerts, Rafaël; Hemmings, Frank; Leishman, Michelle R; Oleksyn, Jacek; Soltis, Pamela S; Swenson, Nathan G; Warman, Laura; Beaulieu, Jeremy M

2014-02-06

Early flowering plants are thought to have been woody species restricted to warm habitats. This lineage has since radiated into almost every climate, with manifold growth forms. As angiosperms spread and climate changed, they evolved mechanisms to cope with episodic freezing. To explore the evolution of traits underpinning the ability to persist in freezing conditions, we assembled a large species-level database of growth habit (woody or herbaceous; 49,064 species), as well as leaf phenology (evergreen or deciduous), diameter of hydraulic conduits (that is, xylem vessels and tracheids) and climate occupancies (exposure to freezing). To model the evolution of species' traits and climate occupancies, we combined these data with an unparalleled dated molecular phylogeny (32,223 species) for land plants. Here we show that woody clades successfully moved into freezing-prone environments by either possessing transport networks of small safe conduits and/or shutting down hydraulic function by dropping leaves during freezing. Herbaceous species largely avoided freezing periods by senescing cheaply constructed aboveground tissue. Growth habit has long been considered labile, but we find that growth habit was less labile than climate occupancy. Additionally, freezing environments were largely filled by lineages that had already become herbs or, when remaining woody, already had small conduits (that is, the trait evolved before the climate occupancy). By contrast, most deciduous woody lineages had an evolutionary shift to seasonally shedding their leaves only after exposure to freezing (that is, the climate occupancy evolved before the trait). For angiosperms to inhabit novel cold environments they had to gain new structural and functional trait solutions; our results suggest that many of these solutions were probably acquired before their foray into the cold.

Late glacial and Early Holocene climatic conditions along the margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet, registered by glacial extents in Milne Land, east Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, L.; Kelly, M. A.; Lowell, T. V.

2010-12-01

Determining the mechanisms that caused past abrupt climate changes is important for understanding today’s rapidly warming climate and, in particular, whether we may be faced with abrupt climate change in the future. Scientists, policy makers and the public are concerned about ongoing warming because it is sending our climate into unprecedented territory at a rapid pace. The Younger Dryas cold event (~12,850-11,650 cal yr B.P.) was an abrupt climate event that occurred during the last transition from glacial to interglacial conditions. Due to its abrupt nature and the magnitude of temperature change that occurred, the Younger Dryas has been the focus of extensive research, however, the mechanisms that caused this cold event are still not well understood. Wide belts (up to 5 km) of moraines, known as the Milne Land stade moraines, are present in the Scoresby Sund region of central east Greenland. Previous work in the region using a combination of equilibrium line altitudes, surface exposure dating of moraines, and relative sea level changes indicates that mountain glacier advances during Younger Dryas time represent only moderate summer temperature cooling (~3-4C colder than at present). In contrast, Greenland ice cores, which register mean annual temperatures, indicate that Younger Dryas temperatures over the ice sheet were ~15C colder than at present. This mismatch between the two nearby paleoclimate records is interpreted to result from strong seasonality (very cold winters and only moderately cold summers) during Younger Dryas time. We are examining seasonality during Younger Dryas time by developing records of summer temperatures from local glaciers in Milne Land (71.0°N, 25.6°W). These mountain glaciers are located adjacent to the Greenland Ice Sheet, less than 50 km from the location of Renland Ice core and only ~250 km from the locations of the GISP2 and GRIP cores. We present new 10Be ages of local glacial extents in Milne Land. Ages range from 11,880 yr to 10,410 yr, indicating that glacial advances occurred during the late Younger Dryas and early Holocene time. The ELA depression of 3-4°C associated with these advances indicates strong seasonality during this time period. These new ages do not show an influence of 10Be inherited from prior periods of exposure, an issue that has hindered applications of 10Be dating in the region in the past. Thus, these ages demonstrate clear evidence for advances of late glacial and early Holocene cooling that must have also influenced the margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Sensitivity of New England Stream Temperatures to Air Temperature and Precipitation Under Projected Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, T.; Samal, N. R.; Wollheim, W. M.; Stewart, R. J.; Zuidema, S.; Prousevitch, A.; Glidden, S.

2015-12-01

The thermal response of streams and rivers to changing climate will influence aquatic habitat. This study examines the impact that changing climate has on stream temperatures in the Merrimack River, NH/MA USA using the Framework for Aquatic Modeling in the Earth System (FrAMES), a spatially distributed river network model driven by air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and solar radiation. Streamflow and water temperatures are simulated at a 45-second (latitude x longitude) river grid resolution for 135 years under historical and projected climate variability. Contemporary streamflow (Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient = 0.77) and river temperatures (Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient = 0.89) matched at downstream USGS gauge data well. A suite of model runs were made in combination with uniformly increased daily summer air temperatures by 2oC, 4 oC and 6 oC as well as adjusted precipitation by -40%, -30%, -20%, -10% and +10% as a sensitivity analysis to explore a broad range of potential future climates. We analyzed the summer stream temperatures and the percent of river length unsuitable for cold to warm water fish habitats. Impacts are greatest in large rivers due to the accumulation of river temperature warming throughout the entire river network. Cold water fish (i.e. brook trout) are most strongly affected while, warm water fish (i.e. largemouth bass) aren't expected to be impacted. The changes in stream temperatures under various potential climate scenarios will provide a better understanding of the specific impact that air temperature and precipitation have on aquatic thermal regimes and habitat.

Effect of climate change on wind waves generated by anticyclonic cold front intrusions in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appendini, Christian M.; Hernández-Lasheras, Jaime; Meza-Padilla, Rafael; Kurczyn, Jorge A.

2018-01-01

Anticyclonic cold surges entering the Gulf of Mexico (Nortes) generate ocean waves that disrupt maritime activities. Norte derived waves are less energetic than the devastating waves from tropical cyclones, but more frequent ( 22 events/year) and with larger spatial influence. Despite their importance, few studies characterize Nortes derived waves and assess the effects of climate change on their occurrence. This study presents a method to identify and characterize Nortes with relation to their derived waves in the Gulf of Mexico. We based the identification of Nortes on synoptic measurements of pressure differences between Yucatan and Texas and wind speed at different buoy locations in the Gulf of Mexico. Subsequently, we identified the events in the CFSR reanalysis (present climate) and the CNRM-M5 model for the present climate and the RCP 8.5 scenario. We then forced a wave model to characterize the wave power generated by each event, followed by a principal component analysis and classification by k-means clustering analysis. Five different Nortes types were identified, each one representing a characteristic intensity and area of influence of the Norte driven waves. Finally, we estimated the occurrence of each Norte type for the present and future climates, where the CNRM-M5 results indicate that the high-intensity events will be less frequent in a warming climate, while mild events will become more frequent. The consequences of such changes may provide relief for maritime and coastal operations because of reduced downtimes. This result is particularly relevant for the operational design of coastal and marine facilities.

Climatic variability and plant food distribution in Pleistocene Europe: Implications for Neanderthal diet and subsistence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardy, Bruce L.

2010-03-01

Contrary to their cold-adapted image, Neanderthals inhabited Pleistocene Europe during a time of great climatic fluctuation with temperatures ranging from as warm as present-day during the last interglacial to as cold as those of the last glacial maximum. Cold-adapted Neanderthals are similarly most often associated with the exploitation of large mammals who are themselves cold-adapted (mammoth, bison, reindeer, etc.). Cold, high-latitude environments are typically seen as lacking in plants generally and in plant foods in particular. Plant foods are therefore usually ignored and Neanderthals are increasingly being viewed as top carnivores who derived the vast majority of their diet from meat. Support for this hypothesis comes largely from stable isotope analysis which tracks only the protein portion of the diet. Diets high in lean meat largely fulfill micronutrient needs but can pose a problem at the macronutrient level. Lean meat can compose no more than 35% of dietary energy before a protein ceiling is reached. Exceeding the protein ceiling can have detrimental physiological effects on the individual. Neanderthals would have needed energy from alternative sources, particularly when animals are fat-depleted and lean meat intake is high. Underground storage organs (USOs) of plants offer one such source, concentrating carbohydrates and energy. USOs could also provide an important seasonal energy source since they are at their maximum energy storage in late fall/winter. Although Paleolithic sites are increasingly yielding plant remains, their presence is rare and they are often given only passing mention in Neanderthal dietary reconstructions. The complexity and number of potential wild plant foods, however, defies easy discussion. Native European wild edible plants with starchy USOs would have been potentially available throughout the Neanderthal range, even during the coldest periods of the Late Pleistocene.

Use of intraspecific variation in thermal responses for estimating an elevational cline in the timing of cold hardening in a sub-boreal conifer.

PubMed

Ishizuka, W; Ono, K; Hara, T; Goto, S

2015-01-01

To avoid winter frost damage, evergreen coniferous species develop cold hardiness with suitable phenology for the local climate regime. Along the elevational gradient, a genetic cline in autumn phenology is often recognised among coniferous populations, but further quantification of evolutionary adaptation related to the local environment and its responsible signals generating the phenological variation are poorly understood. We evaluated the timing of cold hardening among populations of Abies sachalinensis, based on time series freezing tests using trees derived from four seed source populations × three planting sites. Furthermore, we constructed a model to estimate the development of hardening from field temperatures and the intraspecific variations occurring during this process. An elevational cline was detected such that high-elevation populations developed cold hardiness earlier than low-elevation populations, representing significant genetic control. Because development occurred earlier at high-elevation planting sites, the genetic trend across elevation overlapped with the environmental trend. Based on the trade-off between later hardening to lengthen the active growth period and earlier hardening to avoid frost damage, this genetic cline would be adaptive to the local climate. Our modelling approach estimated intraspecific variation in two model components: the threshold temperature, which was the criterion for determining whether the trees accumulated the thermal value, and the chilling requirement for trees to achieve adequate cold hardiness. A higher threshold temperature and a lower chilling requirement could be responsible for the earlier phenology of the high-elevation population. These thermal responses may be one of the important factors driving the elevation-dependent adaptation of A. sachalinensis. © 2014 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Nasal variation in relation to high-altitude adaptations among Tibetans and Andeans.

PubMed

Butaric, Lauren N; Klocke, Ross P

2018-05-01

High-altitude (>2500 m) populations face several pressures, including hypoxia and cold-dry air, resulting in greater respiratory demand to obtain more oxygen and condition inspired air. While cardiovascular and pulmonary adaptations to high-altitude hypoxia have been extensively studied, adaptations of upper-respiratory structures, e.g., nasal cavity, remain untested. This study investigates whether nasal morphology presents adaptations to hypoxic (larger noses) and/or cold-dry (tall/narrow noses) conditions among high-altitude samples. CT scans of two high- and four low-altitude samples from diverse climates were collected (n = 130): high-altitude Tibetans and Peruvians; low-altitude Peruvians, Southern Chinese (temperate), Mongolian-Buriats (cold-dry), and Southeast Asians (hot-wet). Facial and nasal distances were calculated from 3D landmarks placed on digitally-modeled crania. Temperature, precipitation, and barometric pressure data were also obtained. Principal components analysis and analyses of variance primarily indicate size-related differences among the cold-dry (Mongolian-Buriats) and hot-wet (Southeast Asians) adapted groups. Two-block partial least squares (PLS) analysis show weak relationships between size-standardized nasal dimensions and environmental variables. However, among PLS1 (85.90% of covariance), Tibetans display relatively larger nasal cavities related to lower temperatures and barometric pressure; regression analyses also indicate high-altitude Tibetans possess relatively larger internal nasal breadths and heights for their facial size. Overall, nasal differences relate to climate among the cold-dry and hot-wet groups. Specific nasal adaptations were not identified among either Peruvian group, perhaps due to their relatively recent migration history and population structure. However, high-altitude Tibetans seem to exhibit a compromise in nasal morphology, serving in increased oxygen uptake, and air-conditioning processes. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Age scatter in cosmogenic exposure-age chronologies in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica: implications for regional glacial history and sampling strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swanger, K. M.; Schaefer, J. M.; Winckler, G.; Lamp, J. L.; Marchant, D. R.

2016-12-01

Based on surface exposure dating of moraines and drifts, East Antarctic outlet glaciers in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) advanced during the mid-Pliocene and/or early-Pleistocene. However, scatter in exposure ages is common for these deposits (and other glacial drifts throughout Antarctica), making it difficult to tie glacial advances to specific climate intervals. In order to constrain the sources of scatter, we mapped and dated 15 cold-based drifts in Taylor Valley and the Olympus Range in the MDV. A secondary goal was to build a regional climate record, for comparison with fluctuations of the local outlet glaciers. Our alpine drift record is confined to the late-Pleistocene, with glacial advances during interglacial periods. Based on 54 3He exposure dates on alpine drifts, age scatter is common in the MDV on both recent and ancient deposits. Where it occurs, age scatter is likely caused by inheritance of cosmogenic nuclides previous to glacial entrainment and stacking of multiple cold-based drifts. Nuclide inheritance of >1 Myr is possible, but this is relatively rare and confined to regions where englacial debris is sourced from stable, high-elevation plateaus. On the other hand, drifts associated with glaciers bound by steep cirque headwalls and arêtes exhibit significantly less age scatter. Given the cold-based nature of MDV alpine and outlet glaciers, deposition of multiple stacked drift sheets also contributes to age scatter, with the implication that it might be possible to date multiple advances of cold-based ice. These results serve to inform better sampling strategies on cold-based drifts throughout Antarctica.

Cold-induced vasodilation comparison between Bangladeshi and Japanese natives.

PubMed

Khatun, Aklima; Ashikaga, Sakura; Nagano, Hisaho; Hasib, Md Abdul; Taimura, Akihiro

2016-05-03

The human thermoregulation system responds to changes in environmental temperature, so humans can self-adapt to a wide range of climates. People from tropical and temperate areas have different cold tolerance. This study compared the tolerance of Bangladeshi (tropical) and Japanese (temperate) people to local cold exposure on cold-induced vasodilation (CIVD). Eight Bangladeshi males (now residing in Japan) and 14 Japanese males (residing in Japan) participated in this study. All are sedentary, regular university students. The Bangladeshi subject's duration of stay in Japan was 2.50 ± 2.52 years. The subject's left hand middle finger was immersed in 5 °C water for 20 min to assess their CIVD response (the experiment was conducted in an artificial climate chamber controlled at 25 °C with 50% RH). Compared with the Bangladeshi (BD) group, the Japanese (JP) group displayed some differences. There were significant differences between the BD and JP groups in temperature before immersion (TBI), which were 33.04 ± 1.98 and 34.62 ± 0.94 °C, and time of temperature rise (TTR), which were 5.35 ± 0.82 and 3.72 ± 0.68 min, respectively. There was also a significant difference in the time of sensation rise (TSR) of 8.69 ± 6.49 and 3.26 ± 0.97 min between the BD and JP groups, respectively (P < 0.05). Moreover, the JP group showed a quick TTR after finishing immersion. The Japanese group (temperate) has a higher tolerance to local cold exposure than the Bangladeshi group (tropical) evaluated by the CIVD test.

Covariability of seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in high-resolution regional climate simulations (1001-2099)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Montes, S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Rodrigo, F. S.; García-Valero, J. A.; Montávez, J. P.

2017-04-01

Precipitation and surface temperature are interdependent variables, both as a response to atmospheric dynamics and due to intrinsic thermodynamic relationships and feedbacks between them. This study analyzes the covariability of seasonal temperature (T) and precipitation (P) across the Iberian Peninsula (IP) using regional climate paleosimulations for the period 1001-1990, driven by reconstructions of external forcings. Future climate (1990-2099) was simulated according to SRES scenarios A2 and B2. These simulations enable exploring, at high spatial resolution, robust and physically consistent relationships. In winter, positive P-T correlations dominate west-central IP (Pearson correlation coefficient ρ = + 0.43, for 1001-1990), due to prevalent cold-dry and warm-wet conditions, while this relationship weakens and become negative towards mountainous, northern and eastern regions. In autumn, negative correlations appear in similar regions as in winter, whereas for summer they extend also to the N/NW of the IP. In spring, the whole IP depicts significant negative correlations, strongest for eastern regions (ρ = - 0.51). This is due to prevalent frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes in these regions and seasons. At the temporal scale, regional correlation series between seasonal anomalies of temperature and precipitation (assessed in 31 years running windows in 1001-1990) show very large multidecadal variability. For winter and spring, periodicities of about 50-60 years arise. The frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes appears correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explaining mainly co-variability changes in spring. For winter and some regions in autumn, maximum and minimum P-T correlations appear in periods with enhanced meridional or easterly circulation (low or high pressure anomalies in the Mediterranean and Europe). In spring and summer, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation shows some fingerprint on the frequency of warm/cold modes. For future scenarios, an intensification of the negative P-T relationship is generally found, as a result of an increased frequency of the warm-dry mode.

British Military freezing cold injuries: a 13-year review.

PubMed

Heil, Kieran M; Oakley, E H N; Wood, A M

2016-12-01

Cold injuries have been a recurrent feature of warfare for millennia and continue to present during British Military operations today. Those affecting the peripheries are divided into freezing cold injury (FCI) and non-FCI. FCI occurs when tissue fluids freeze at around -0.5°C and is commonly referred to as frostnip or frostbite. All FMED7 notes held at the Institute of Naval Medicine's Cold Weather Injury Clinic (CIC) from 2002 to 2014 were searched for the terms 'frostbite' and 'frostnip' and then analysed to identify common themes. In total 245 results were found and from these, 149 patients with a positive FCI diagnosis were identified and formed the cohort of this study. Royal Marines (RM) represented over 50% of patients and Arctic training in Norway accounted for over two thirds of the total cases. The extremities were almost always those areas which were affected by FCI. Further analysis of the RM cases showed the majority of those injured were of the most junior rank (Marine/Private or Lance Corporal). A lack of supporting climatic and activity data meant that it was difficult to draw additional conclusions from the data collected. In future, a greater emphasis should be placed on collection of climatic and additional data when FCIs are diagnosed. These data should be collated at the end of each deployment and published as was regularly done historically. It is hoped that these data could then be used as the starting point for an annual climatic study day, where issues related to FCIs could be discussed in a Tri-Service environment and lessons learned disseminated around all British Forces personnel. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Warming and wetting signals emerging from analysis of changes in climate extreme indices over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skansi, María de los Milagros; Brunet, Manola; Sigró, Javier; Aguilar, Enric; Arevalo Groening, Juan Andrés; Bentancur, Oscar J.; Castellón Geier, Yaruska Rosa; Correa Amaya, Ruth Leonor; Jácome, Homero; Malheiros Ramos, Andrea; Oria Rojas, Clara; Pasten, Alejandro Max; Sallons Mitro, Sukarni; Villaroel Jiménez, Claudia; Martínez, Rodney; Alexander, Lisa V.; Jones, P. D.

2013-01-01

Here we show and discuss the results of an assessment of changes in both area-averaged and station-based climate extreme indices over South America (SA) for the 1950-2010 and 1969-2009 periods using high-quality daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation series. A weeklong regional workshop in Guayaquil (Ecuador) provided the opportunity to extend the current picture of changes in climate extreme indices over SA. Our results provide evidence of warming and wetting across the whole SA since the mid-20th century onwards. Nighttime (minimum) temperature indices show the largest rates of warming (e.g. for tropical nights, cold and warm nights), while daytime (maximum) temperature indices also point to warming (e.g. for cold days, summer days, the annual lowest daytime temperature), but at lower rates than for minimums. Both tails of night-time temperatures have warmed by a similar magnitude, with cold days (the annual lowest nighttime and daytime temperatures) seeing reductions (increases). Trends are strong and moderate (moderate to weak) for regional-averaged (local) indices, most of them pointing to a less cold SA during the day and warmer night-time temperatures. Regionally-averaged precipitation indices show clear wetting and a signature of intensified heavy rain events over the eastern part of the continent. The annual amounts of rainfall are rising strongly over south-east SA (26.41 mm/decade) and Amazonia (16.09 mm/decade), but north-east Brazil and the western part of SA have experienced non-significant decreases. Very wet and extremely days, the annual maximum 5-day and 1-day precipitation show the largest upward trends, indicating an intensified rainfall signal for SA, particularly over Amazonia and south-east SA. Local trends for precipitation extreme indices are in general less coherent spatially, but with more general spatially coherent upward trends in extremely wet days over all SA.

Relating Regional Arctic Sea Ice and climate extremes over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Grosfeld, Klaus; Lohmann, Gerrit; Scholz, Patrick

2016-04-01

The potential increase of temperature extremes under climate change is a major threat to society, as temperature extremes have a deep impact on environment, hydrology, agriculture, society and economy. Hence, the analysis of the mechanisms underlying their occurrence, including their relationships with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea ice concentration, is of major importance. At the same time, the decline in Arctic sea ice cover during the last 30 years has been widely documented and it is clear that this change is having profound impacts at regional as well as planetary scale. As such, this study aims to investigate the relation between the autumn regional sea ice concentration variability and cold winters in Europe, as identified by the numbers of cold nights (TN10p), cold days (TX10p), ice days (ID) and consecutive frost days (CFD). We analyze the relationship between Arctic sea ice variation in autumn (September-October-November) averaged over eight different Arctic regions (Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Chukchi/Bering Seas, Central Arctic, Greenland Sea, Labrador Sea/Baffin Bay, Laptev/East Siberian Seas and Northern Hemisphere) and variations in atmospheric circulation and climate extreme indices in the following winter season over Europe using composite map analysis. Based on the composite map analysis it is shown that the response of the winter extreme temperatures over Europe is highly correlated/connected to changes in Arctic sea ice variability. However, this signal is not symmetrical for the case of high and low sea ice years. Moreover, the response of temperatures extreme over Europe to sea ice variability over the different Arctic regions differs substantially. The regions which have the strongest impact on the extreme winter temperature over Europe are: Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Central Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere. For the years of high sea ice concentration in the Barents/Kara Seas there is a reduction in the number of cold nights, cold days, ice days and consecutive frost days over the western part of Europe. In the opposite case of low sea ice concentration over the Barents/Kara Seas an increase of up to 8 days/winter of cold nights and days is observed over the whole Europe and an increase of up to 4 days/winter in the number of ID and CFD is observed over the same regions. The cold winters over Europe (low sea ice years) are associated with anomalous anticyclone and the downstream development of a mid-latitude trough, which in turn favours the advection of cold air from the north, providing favourable conditions for severe winters over Europe. We suggest that these results can help to improve the seasonal predictions of winter extreme events over Europe. Due to the non-linear response to high vs. low sea ice years, the skill of the predictions might depend on the sign and amplitude of the anomalies.

Analysis on energy-saving path of rural buildings in hot summer and cold winter zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Mingqiang; Li, Jinheng

2018-02-01

Since the reform and opening policy, the construction of rural area in China has become more and more important. The idea of establishing green villages needs to be accepted and recognized by the public. The hot summer and cold winter zone combines two contradictory weather conditions that is cold winter and hot summer. So the living conditions are limited. In response to this climate, residents extensively use electric heaters or air conditioning to adjust the indoor temperature, resulting in energy waste and environmental pollution. In order to improve the living conditions of residents, rural area energy conservation has been put on the agenda. Based on the present situation and energy consumption analysis of the rural buildings in the hot summer and cold winter zone, this article puts forward several energy saving paths from government, construction technology and so on

Quantitative assessment of relative roles of drivers of acute respiratory diseases

PubMed Central

Goswami, Prashant; Baruah, Jurismita

2014-01-01

Several thousands of people, including children, suffer from acute respiratory disease (ARD) every year worldwide. Pro-active planning and mitigation for these diseases require identification of the major drivers in a location-specific manner. While the importance of air pollutants in ARD has been extensively studied and emphasized, the role of weather variables has been less explored. With Delhi with its large population and pollution as a test case, we examine the relative roles of air pollution and weather (cold days) in ARD. It is shown that both the number of cold days and air pollution play important roles in ARD load; however, the number of cold days emerges as the major driver. These conclusions are consistent with analyses for several other states in India. The robust association between ARD load and cold days provides basis for estimating and predicting ARD load through dynamical model, as well as impact of climate change. PMID:25322687

Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

PubMed

Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

2018-04-30

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

Thermal Bridge Effect of Aerated Concrete Block Wall in Cold Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Baochang; Guo, Lirong; Li, Yubao; Zhang, Tiantian; Tan, Yufei

2018-01-01

As a self-insulating building material which can meet the 65 percent energy-efficiency requirements in cold region of China, aerated concrete blocks often go moldy, frost heaving, or cause plaster layer hollowing at thermal bridge parts in the extremely cold regions due to the restrictions of environmental climate and construction technique. L-shaped part and T-shaped part of aerated concrete walls are the most easily influenced parts by thermal bridge effect. In this paper, a field test is performed to investigate the scope of the thermal bridge effect. Moreover, a heat transfer calculation model for L-shaped wall and T-shaped wall is developed. According to the simulation results, the temperature fields of the thermal bridge affected regions are simulated and analyzed. The research outputs can provide theoretical basis for the application of aerated concrete wall in extremely cold regions.

21st Century Trends in the Potential for Ozone Depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2009-05-01

We find robust trends in the area where Antarctic stratospheric temperatures are below the threshold for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation in Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. In late winter (September-October-November), cold area trends are consistent with the respective trends in equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), i.e. negative cold area trends in 'realistic future' simulations where EESC decreases and the ozone layer recovers. In the early winter (April through June), regardless of EESC scenario, we find an increasing cold area trend in all simulations; multiple linear regression analysis shows that this early winter cooling trend is associated with the predicted increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the future. We compare the seasonality of the potential for Antarctic ozone depletion in two versions of the GEOS CCM and assess the impact of the above-mentioned cold area trends on polar stratospheric chemistry.

Recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 year

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Jingyun; Hao, Zhixin; Ge, Quansheng; Liu, Yang

2016-04-01

The study of regional climate changes for past 2000 year could present spatial pattern of climate variation and various historical analogues for the sensitivity and operation of the climate system (e.g., the modulations of internal variability, feedbacks and teleconnections, abrupt changes and regional extreme events, etc.) from inter-annual to centennial scales and provide the knowledge to predict and project climate in the near future. China is distinguished by a prominent monsoon climate in east, continental arid climate in northwest and high land cold climate in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau located at southwest. The long history of civilization and the variety of climate in China provides an abundant and well-dated documentary records and a wide range of natural archives (e.g., tree-ring, ice core, stalagmite, varved lake sediment, etc.) for high-resolution paleoclimate reconstruction. This paper presented a review of recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 years. In recent 10 years, there were many new high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstructions reported in China, e.g., the annual and decadal resolution series of temperature and precipitation in eastern China derived from historical documents, in western China derived from tree-ring and other natural archives. These new reconstructions provided more proxies and better spatial coverage to understand the characteristics of climate change over China and the uncertainty of regional reconstructions, as well as to reconstruct the high-resolution temperature series and the spatial pattern of precipitation change for whole China in the past millenniums by synthesizing the multi-proxy together. The updated results show that, in China, the warm intervals for the past 2000 years were in AD 1-200, AD 551-760, AD 951-1320, and after AD 1921; as well as the cold intervals were in AD 201-350, AD 441-530, AD 781-950, and AD 1321-1920. The extreme cold winters occurred in periods of 1500-1900 were more frequent than that after 1950. The intensity of regional heat wave occurred in the context of recent global warming may not exceed the natural climate variability during the historical times. In the eastern monsoon region of China, the significant cycles of precipitation are 90-100a, 70-80a, 43-48a, 35a, 25-27a and 17-18a in North China Plain; 90-100a, 73-75a, 63-68a, 55a, 45a, 37a and 26a in Jiang-Huai area; and 85-100a, 75-77a, 58-65a, 37-39a, 31a and 26a in Jiang-Nan area; respectively. Whereas, the spatial pattern of drought/flood for all cold periods ensemble mean showed an east to west distribution, but for all warm periods ensemble mean showed a tri-pole pattern with drought in south of 25°N, flood in 25°-30°N, and drought in north of 30°N. The extreme drought events were more frequent at the periods of 301-400, 751-800, 1051-1150, 1501-1550 and 1601-1650, the extreme flood events were more frequent at the periods of 101-150, 251-300, 951-1000, 1701-1750, 1801-1850 and 1901-1950, and for the period of 1551-1600, the coexisting extreme drought and extreme flood events most frequently occurred. In arid area, China, it was characterized by a relatively dry in AD 1000-1350, a wet in AD 1500 to 1850 and tending to moisture in recent decades. In the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, there existed evident centennial oscillations for precipitation during the past 1000 years, with interruption of several multi-decadal severe drought events, which two prominent droughty events centered on AD1480s and AD 1710s. In the Southwest of China, the extreme droughts as severe as in Sichuan and Chongqing in 2006 have also been occurred during the historical times.

The impact of extreme weather conditions on the life of settlers in the Central Russia in X - XVI centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graves, Irina; Nizovtsev, Viacheslav; Erman, Natalia

2017-04-01

A special place in the reconstruction of climate dynamics takes an analysis of extraordinary meteorological phenomena. These extreme weather events in the first place impact the functioning of, the rhythm and dynamics of the landscapes and determine not only the features of economy, but also certain aspects of historical development. In the analysis of primary chronicles and published data, along with the direct climatic characteristics (hot, warm, cold, wet, dry, etc.) a lot of attention was paid to abnormal (extreme) natural phenomena and indirect indications of climate variability (floods, crop failures, hunger years, epidemics, etc.). As a result, tables were compiled reflecting climatic basic characteristics and extremes for each year since 900 BC. X-XI centuries was a period of minor climatic optimum - the climate was warmer and drier than the modern one. In addition to higher temperatures (up to 1-3C above than mordern), during this period there were no severe winters. A small amount of summer rainfall has led to a reduction in the number of small water reservoirs and flooding rivers. This is evidenced by Slavic settlements on floodplains of a number of rivers in the Moscow region. It is in this favorable climatic time the way "from the Vikings to the Greeks" was open. Catastrophic natural events had a minimum repeatability. For example, during the X century the Russian chronicles mentioned 41 extreme event, but for the XIII century - 102. Most of the villages and towns were located on the low floodplain terraces of rivers. The main farmland was concentrated there as well. In the "period of contrasts" (XIII - XIV centuries) there was an increase of intra-seasonal climate variability, humidity and widespread reduction in summer temperatures by 1-2C. The number of extreme weather events increased: cold prolonged winters, long rains in summers, cold weather returns in the early summer, early frosts in late summer - early autumn. Such conditions often resulted in crop damage and famine. From the XIV century the little Ice Age began. Year average temperature becomes lower by 1.4°C and summer temperature - by 2-3°C. In the XIV century the chronicles mentioned a total of 100 extreme natural phenomena, as a result of which Russia experienced more than 37 years of famine. The climate was particularly variable in late XIV - early XV century and XVI - XVII centuries, when there were years of particularly cold winters and increased humidity (due to winter precipitation). The duration of the crop growing season was reduced by three weeks. At the beginning of the XVII century spruce became dominant in the spruce-deciduous forests and co-dominant in deciduous forests. There was a transfer of settlements and agricultural land to interfluve areas and higher river valleys. The determining factors were demographic, socio-economic and historical factors, but the role of natural factors cannot be overlooked. The end of the XVI century was marked by the most severe political and economic crisis in the Russian State (oprichnina (political and administrative apparatus established by Ivan IV) and Livonian Wars by Ivan IV), which, combined with deteriorating environmental conditions (increased humidity of the climate, the average annual temperature drop) caused massive desolation of the lands. Many hundreds of villages turned into wasteland. In this period the Moscow land was reported as a "wild desert, covered with shrubs, bogs and imbanks", there were also memories of the past navigation on small rivers, data on mills on the streams. The climate deterioration caused the agrarian revolution in Russia in XIV-XVI centuries. Slash-and-burn and shifting cultivation was replaced by plow farming system (two- and three-field), which was more adapted to the harsh climatic conditions. The work is performed under project № 17-05-00662of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research

Late Quaternary extraglacial cold-climate deposits in low and mid-altitude Tasmania and their climatic implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McIntosh, P. D.; Eberhard, R.; Slee, A.; Moss, P.; Price, D. M.; Donaldson, P.; Doyle, R.; Martins, J.

2012-12-01

Many Tasmanian deposits previously described as 'periglacial' have been described in more detail, re-interpreted and dated. We suggest that 'periglacial' has little meaning when applied locally and the term 'relict cold-climate deposits' is more appropriate. In this paper we examine the origin and age of relict cold-climate slope deposits, fan alluvium and aeolian sediments in Tasmania, and infer the conditions under which they accumulated. Fan alluvium dating from the penultimate Glacial (OIS 6) and capped by a prominent palaeosol deduced to date to the Last Interglacial (OIS 5e) is present at Woodstock, south of Hobart. Many fan deposits formed before 40 ka or in a period c. 30-23 ka; only a few deposits date to the Last Glacial Maximum in Tasmania, which is defined as spanning the period 23.5-17.5 ka. Slope deposits indicate widespread instability down to present-day sea level throughout the Last Glacial, probably as a result of freeze-thaw in a sparsely vegetated landscape. Layered fine gravel and coarse sand colluvial deposits resembling grèzes litées, produced both by dry deposition and by the action of water, are locally common where jointed siltstone bedrock outcrops. These deposits occur from altitudes of 500 m to near sea level and also in caves and must have formed under sparse vegetation cover, probably by freeze-thaw in extremely dry conditions. They have been radiocarbon dated from 35 to 17.5 cal. ka. Relict dunes and sandsheets are widespread at the margin of the Bassian Plain that once provided a land bridge between Tasmania and the mainland. They are also found in western Tasmania and in areas of inland southern Tasmania that now support wet eucalypt forest and rainforest and receive mean annual rainfall > 1500 mm. In the south they have been dated > 87.5-19 ka and attest to a long period of semi-arid climate in an area extending well to the west and south of the present semiarid zone. We deduce that during most of the Last Glacial anticyclones dominated Tasmania's climate and rain-bearing depressions generally passed south of the land mass. However in the east prominent palaeosols in aeolian deposits, dated between 26.4 ka and 16 ka at different locations, and palaeosols with morphology indicating formation under humid conditions, indicate periods of wetter climate in eastern Tasmania during or close to the LGM, deduced to be the result of easterlies associated with near-coastal depressions in the western Tasman Sea. Such easterlies may also be responsible for short Last Glacial wet periods noted at mainland coastal sites. A plot of ages of all dated deposits reveals an increase of erosion and deposition between 35 and 20 ka, and greater prevalence of aeolian deposits in the 35-15 ka period than earlier in the Last Glacial. There are two possible explanations for this pattern: (1) that aeolian activity increased as the result of climatic effects (e.g. increased windiness); or (2) that shrubland biomass increased after the megafauna were hunted to extinction following human arrival c. 40 ka, causing increased fire frequency, and in the cold dry climate of the late Last Glacial such fires caused increased erosion and increased aeolian accumulation.

Synergistic roles of climate warming and human occupation in Patagonian megafaunal extinctions during the Last Deglaciation.

PubMed

Metcalf, Jessica L; Turney, Chris; Barnett, Ross; Martin, Fabiana; Bray, Sarah C; Vilstrup, Julia T; Orlando, Ludovic; Salas-Gismondi, Rodolfo; Loponte, Daniel; Medina, Matías; De Nigris, Mariana; Civalero, Teresa; Fernández, Pablo Marcelo; Gasco, Alejandra; Duran, Victor; Seymour, Kevin L; Otaola, Clara; Gil, Adolfo; Paunero, Rafael; Prevosti, Francisco J; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Wheeler, Jane C; Borrero, Luis; Austin, Jeremy J; Cooper, Alan

2016-06-01

The causes of Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions (60,000 to 11,650 years ago, hereafter 60 to 11.65 ka) remain contentious, with major phases coinciding with both human arrival and climate change around the world. The Americas provide a unique opportunity to disentangle these factors as human colonization took place over a narrow time frame (~15 to 14.6 ka) but during contrasting temperature trends across each continent. Unfortunately, limited data sets in South America have so far precluded detailed comparison. We analyze genetic and radiocarbon data from 89 and 71 Patagonian megafaunal bones, respectively, more than doubling the high-quality Pleistocene megafaunal radiocarbon data sets from the region. We identify a narrow megafaunal extinction phase 12,280 ± 110 years ago, some 1 to 3 thousand years after initial human presence in the area. Although humans arrived immediately prior to a cold phase, the Antarctic Cold Reversal stadial, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until the stadial finished and the subsequent warming phase commenced some 1 to 3 thousand years later. The increased resolution provided by the Patagonian material reveals that the sequence of climate and extinction events in North and South America were temporally inverted, but in both cases, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until human presence and climate warming coincided. Overall, metapopulation processes involving subpopulation connectivity on a continental scale appear to have been critical for megafaunal species survival of both climate change and human impacts.

Environmental Predictors of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics across Temperate and Tropical Climates

PubMed Central

Tamerius, James D.; Shaman, Jeffrey; Alonso, Wladmir J.; Bloom-Feshbach, Kimberly; Uejio, Christopher K.; Comrie, Andrew; Viboud, Cécile

2013-01-01

Human influenza infections exhibit a strong seasonal cycle in temperate regions. Recent laboratory and epidemiological evidence suggests that low specific humidity conditions facilitate the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus in temperate regions, resulting in annual winter epidemics. However, this relationship is unlikely to account for the epidemiology of influenza in tropical and subtropical regions where epidemics often occur during the rainy season or transmit year-round without a well-defined season. We assessed the role of specific humidity and other local climatic variables on influenza virus seasonality by modeling epidemiological and climatic information from 78 study sites sampled globally. We substantiated that there are two types of environmental conditions associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: “cold-dry” and “humid-rainy”. For sites where monthly average specific humidity or temperature decreases below thresholds of approximately 11–12 g/kg and 18–21°C during the year, influenza activity peaks during the cold-dry season (i.e., winter) when specific humidity and temperature are at minimal levels. For sites where specific humidity and temperature do not decrease below these thresholds, seasonal influenza activity is more likely to peak in months when average precipitation totals are maximal and greater than 150 mm per month. These findings provide a simple climate-based model rooted in empirical data that accounts for the diversity of seasonal influenza patterns observed across temperate, subtropical and tropical climates. PMID:23505366

Simulated influences of Lake Agassiz on the climate of central North America 11,000 years ago

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Bartlein, P.J.; Clark, P.U.; Small, E.E.; Solomon, A.M.

2000-01-01

Eleven thousand years ago, large lakes existed in central and eastern North America along the margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The large-scale North American climate at this time has been simulated with atmospheric general circulation models, but these relatively coarse global models do not resolve potentially important features of the mesoscale circulation that arise from interactions among the atmosphere, ice sheet, and proglacial lakes. Here we present simulations of the climate of central and eastern North America 11,000 years ago with a high-resolution, regional climate model nested within a general circulation model. The simulated climate is in general agreement with that inferred from palaeoecological evidence. Our experiments indicate that through mesoscale atmospheric feedbacks, the annual delivery of moisture to the Laurentide Ice Sheet was diminished at times of a large, cold Lake Agassiz relative to periods of lower lake stands. The resulting changes in the mass balance of the ice sheet may have contributed to fluctuations of the ice margin, thus affecting the routing of fresh water to the North Atlantic Ocean. A retreating ice margin during periods of high lake level may have opened an outlet for discharge of Lake Agassiz into the North Atlantic. A subsequent advance of the ice margin due to greater moisture delivery associated with a low lake level could have dammed the outlet, thereby reducing discharge to the North Atlantic. These variations may have been decisive in causing the Younger Dryas cold even.

Scalariform-to-simple transition in vessel perforation plates triggered by differences in climate during the evolution of Adoxaceae

PubMed Central

Lens, Frederic; Vos, Rutger A.; Charrier, Guillaume; van der Niet, Timo; Merckx, Vincent; Baas, Pieter; Aguirre Gutierrez, Jesus; Jacobs, Bart; Chacon Dória, Larissa; Smets, Erik; Delzon, Sylvain; Janssens, Steven B.

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Angiosperms with simple vessel perforations have evolved many times independently of species having scalariform perforations, but detailed studies to understand why these transitions in wood evolution have happened are lacking. We focus on the striking difference in wood anatomy between two closely related genera of Adoxaceae, Viburnum and Sambucus, and link the anatomical divergence with climatic and physiological insights. Methods After performing wood anatomical observations, we used a molecular phylogenetic framework to estimate divergence times for 127 Adoxaceae species. The conditions under which the genera diversified were estimated using ancestral area reconstruction and optimization of ancestral climates, and xylem-specific conductivity measurements were performed. Key Results Viburnum, characterized by scalariform vessel perforations (ancestral), diversified earlier than Sambucus, having simple perforations (derived). Ancestral climate reconstruction analyses point to cold temperate preference for Viburnum and warm temperate for Sambucus. This is reflected in the xylem-specific conductivity rates of the co-occurring species investigated, showing that Viburnum lantana has rates much lower than Sambucus nigra. Conclusions The lack of selective pressure for high conductive efficiency during early diversification of Viburnum and the potentially adaptive value of scalariform perforations in frost-prone cold temperate climates have led to retention of the ancestral vessel perforation type, while higher temperatures during early diversification of Sambucus have triggered the evolution of simple vessel perforations, allowing more efficient long-distance water transport. PMID:27498812

Synergistic roles of climate warming and human occupation in Patagonian megafaunal extinctions during the Last Deglaciation

PubMed Central

Metcalf, Jessica L.; Turney, Chris; Barnett, Ross; Martin, Fabiana; Bray, Sarah C.; Vilstrup, Julia T.; Orlando, Ludovic; Salas-Gismondi, Rodolfo; Loponte, Daniel; Medina, Matías; De Nigris, Mariana; Civalero, Teresa; Fernández, Pablo Marcelo; Gasco, Alejandra; Duran, Victor; Seymour, Kevin L.; Otaola, Clara; Gil, Adolfo; Paunero, Rafael; Prevosti, Francisco J.; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Wheeler, Jane C.; Borrero, Luis; Austin, Jeremy J.; Cooper, Alan

2016-01-01

The causes of Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions (60,000 to 11,650 years ago, hereafter 60 to 11.65 ka) remain contentious, with major phases coinciding with both human arrival and climate change around the world. The Americas provide a unique opportunity to disentangle these factors as human colonization took place over a narrow time frame (~15 to 14.6 ka) but during contrasting temperature trends across each continent. Unfortunately, limited data sets in South America have so far precluded detailed comparison. We analyze genetic and radiocarbon data from 89 and 71 Patagonian megafaunal bones, respectively, more than doubling the high-quality Pleistocene megafaunal radiocarbon data sets from the region. We identify a narrow megafaunal extinction phase 12,280 ± 110 years ago, some 1 to 3 thousand years after initial human presence in the area. Although humans arrived immediately prior to a cold phase, the Antarctic Cold Reversal stadial, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until the stadial finished and the subsequent warming phase commenced some 1 to 3 thousand years later. The increased resolution provided by the Patagonian material reveals that the sequence of climate and extinction events in North and South America were temporally inverted, but in both cases, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until human presence and climate warming coincided. Overall, metapopulation processes involving subpopulation connectivity on a continental scale appear to have been critical for megafaunal species survival of both climate change and human impacts. PMID:27386563

Plastic rates of development and the effect of thermal extremes on offspring fitness in a cold-climate viviparous lizard.

PubMed

Cunningham, George D; Fitzpatrick, Luisa J; While, Geoffrey M; Wapstra, Erik

2018-05-23

Populations at the climatic margins of a species' distribution can be exposed to conditions that cause developmental stress, resulting in developmental abnormalities. Even within the thermal range of normal development, phenotypes often vary with developmental temperature (i.e., thermal phenotypic plasticity). These effects can have significant consequences for organismal fitness and, thus, population persistence. Reptiles, as ectotherms, are particularly vulnerable to thermal effects on development and are, therefore, considered to be at comparatively high risk from changing climates. Understanding the extent and direction of thermal effects on phenotypes and their fitness consequences is crucial if we are to make meaningful predictions of how populations and species will respond as climates warm. Here, we experimentally manipulated the thermal conditions experienced by females from a high-altitude, cold-adapted population of the viviparous skink, Niveoscincus ocellatus, to examine the consequences of thermal conditions at the margins of this population's normal temperature range. We found strong effects of thermal conditions on the development of key phenotypic traits that have implications for fitness. Specifically, we found that offspring born earlier as a result of high temperatures during gestation had increased growth over the first winter of life, but there was no effect on offspring survival, nor was there an effect of developmental temperature on the incidence of developmental abnormalities. Combined, our results suggest that advancing birth dates that result from warming climates may have positive effects in this population via increased growth. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Meeting models and mineralogy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bridges, John C.

2018-03-01

A new geochemical study shows that short-lived warm and wet episodes during a globally cold early Mars could have formed the clay deposits detected on the Martian surface. This model can reconcile climate models with mineralogical and geomorphological evidence.

Use of ``Cold Spell'' indices to quantify excess chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) morbidity during winter (November to March 2000-2007): case study in Porto

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monteiro, Ana; Carvalho, Vânia; Góis, Joaquim; Sousa, Carlos

2013-11-01

The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between the occurrence of cold episodes and excess hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Porto, Portugal, in order to further understand the effects of cold weather on health in milder climates. Excess COPD winter morbidity was calculated from admissions for November to March (2000-2007) in the Greater Porto Metropolitan Area (GPMA). Cold spells were identified using several indices (Díaz, World Meteorological Organization, Cold Spell Duration Index, Australian Index and Ondas’ Project Index) for the same period. Excess admissions in the periods before and after the occurrence of cold spells were calculated and related to the cold spells identified. The COPD seasonal variation admission coefficient (CVSA) showed excess winter admissions of 59 %, relative to other months. The effect of cold spell on the aggravation of COPD occurs with a lag of at least 2 weeks and differs according to the index used. This study indicates the important role of the persistence of cold periods of at least 2 weeks duration in the increase in COPD admissions. The persistence of moderate temperatures (Tmin ≤5 °C) for a week can be more significant for increasing COPD admissions than very low temperatures (Tmin ≤ 1.6 °C) for just a few days. The Ondas projects’ index provides the most accurate detection of the negative impacts of cold persistency on health, while the Diaz index is better at evaluating the consequences of short extreme cold events.

Črna Jama as a cold air trap cave within Postojna Cave, Slovenia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šebela, Stanka; Turk, Janez

2017-10-01

Črna Jama is the coldest section of cave within the Postojna Cave System. Mean annual air temperatures at the Črna Jama 2 site are 5.6 °C (2015) and 5.7 °C (2016), and at the Črna Jama 3 site 7.1 °C (2015) and 7.2 (2016), whereas the mean external air temperature was 10.3 °C (2015) and 10.0 °C (2016). In Lepe Jame, the passage most heavily visited by tourists, the mean cave-air temperature is 10.7 °C (2014-2017). Črna Jama exhibits winter and summer temperature regimes. During warm periods (Tcave < Tout), it acts as a cold air trap, exchanging no air with the outside atmosphere. Under such conditions the cave-air temperature shows no short-term diurnal temperature oscillations. Cave-air temperature is significantly stable and affected only by elevation of the groundwater table, which is associated with precipitation. During cold periods (Tcave > Tout), ventilation takes place and dense, cold, outside air sinks into Črna Jama because of the favourable cave entrance morphology. Recent Črna Jama air temperature data (2014-2017) indicate a < 0.5 °C higher temperature than that recorded in historical data since 1933. Črna Jama is the most appropriate place within the Postojna Cave System to study long-term climatic changes. There are hardly any tourist visits to the cave, and human impacts on the cave climate are essentially reduced.

Early Wisconsinan (MIS 4) Arctic ground squirrel middens and a squirrel-eye-view of the mammoth-steppe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zazula, Grant D.; Froese, Duane G.; Elias, Scott A.; Kuzmina, Svetlana; Mathewes, Rolf W.

2011-08-01

Fossil arctic ground squirrel ( Spermophilus parryii) middens were recovered from ice-rich loess sediments in association with Sheep Creek-Klondike and Dominion Creek tephras (ca 80 ka) exposed in west-central Yukon. These middens provide plant and insect macrofossil evidence for a steppe-tundra ecosystem during the Early Wisconsinan (MIS 4) glacial interval. Midden plant and insect macrofossil data are compared with those previously published for Late Wisconsinan middens dating to ˜25-29 14C ka BP (MIS 3/2) from the region. Although multivariate statistical comparisons suggest differences between the relative abundances of plant macrofossils, the co-occurrence of steppe-tundra plants and insects (e.g., Elymus trachycaulus, Kobresia myosuroides, Artemisia frigida, Phlox hoodii, Connatichela artemisiae) provides evidence for successive reestablishment of the zonal steppe-tundra habitats during cold stages of the Late Pleistocene. Arctic ground squirrels were well adapted to the cold, arid climates, steppe-tundra vegetation and well-drained loessal soils that characterize cold stages of Late Pleistocene Beringia. These glacial conditions enabled arctic ground squirrel populations to expand their range to the interior regions of Alaska and Yukon, including the Klondike, where they are absent today. Arctic ground squirrels have endured numerous Quaternary climate oscillations by retracting populations to disjunct "interglacial refugia" during warm interglacial periods (e.g., south-facing steppe slopes, well-drained arctic and alpine tundra areas) and expanding their distribution across the mammoth-steppe biome during cold, arid glacial intervals.

The influence of a heat and moisture exchanger on tracheal climate in a cold environment.

PubMed

Zuur, J Karel; Muller, Sara H; Vincent, Andrew; Sinaasappel, Michiel; de Jongh, Frans H C; Hilgers, Frans J M

2009-09-01

The incidence of pulmonary complaints, severe tracheitis and lung function deterioration is increased during wintertime in laryngectomized individuals. We analyzed how a heat and moisture exchanger (HME) performs in cold and dry ambient circumstances, and how its efficiency in this environmental climate might be improved. Randomized crossover. Intra-tracheal temperature and humidity were measured in 10 laryngectomized patients with and without HME, in a cold (mean, 4.7 degrees C) and dry (mean, 4.5 mgH2O/L) room. Presence of an HME causes the intra-tracheal mean humidity minima and maxima to increase with 4.2 mgH2O/L (95%CI: 3.3-5.0 mgH2O/L; p<0.001) and 2.4 mgH2O/L (95%CI: 1.7-3.1 mgH2O/L; p<0.001), respectively. The intra-tracheal mean temperature minima and maxima increased with 3.9 degrees C (95%CI: 2.7-5.1 degrees C; p<0.001) and 1.2 degrees C (95%CI: 0.8-1.2 degrees C; p<0.001), respectively. In the majority of patients, the calculated relative humidity values appear to reach well above 100% during inspiration. In a cold environment, presence of an HME significantly increases both inspiratory and expiratory temperature and humidity values. Relative humidity calculations suggest the formation of condense droplets during inspiration. To further increase its effectiveness, improvement of the HME's thermal capacity should be aimed for.

Holocene thermal optimal and climate variability of East Asian monsoon inferred from forest reconstruction of a subalpine pollen sequence, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liew, P. M.; Lee, C. Y.; Kuo, C. M.

2006-10-01

The East Asian monsoon Holocene optimal period has been debated both about duration and whether conditions were a maximum in thermal conditions or in precipitation. In this study we show Holocene climate variability inferred by a forest reconstruction of a subalpine pollen sequence from peat bog deposits in central Taiwan, based on modern analogues of various altitudinal biomes in the region. A warmer interval occurred between 8 and 4 ka BP (calibrated 14C years) when the subtropical forests were more extensive. The Holocene thermal optimum is represented by an altitudinal tropical forest at 6.1-5.9 ka BP and 6.9 ka BP and only the latter was accompanied by wet conditions, indicating decoupling of thermal and precipitation mechanism in the middle Holocene. Abrupt and relative severe cold phases, shown by biome changes, occurred at about 11.2-11.0 ka BP; 7.5 ka BP; 7.2 ka BP; 7.1 ka BP; 5.2 ka BP, 5.0 ka BP and 4.9 ka BP. A spectral analysis of pollen of a relatively cold taxon — Salix, reveals that the time series is dominated by a 1500 yr periodicity and similar to the cold cycle reported in the marine records of Indian and western Pacific Oceans. The cold-warm conditions inferred by the change of forests show close relationship to solar energy in comparison with the production rate of Be-10.

Fructan metabolism and changes in fructan composition during cold acclimation in perennial ryegrass

PubMed Central

Abeynayake, Shamila W.; Etzerodt, Thomas P.; Jonavičienė, Kristina; Byrne, Stephen; Asp, Torben; Boelt, Birte

2015-01-01

Perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) produces high levels of fructans as a mixture of oligosaccharides and polysaccharides with different degrees of polymerization (DP). The present study describes the analysis of the compositional changes in the full spectrum of fructans, fructan distribution between above ground biomass (top) and the roots, and the transcription of candidate genes involved in fructan metabolism during cold acclimation in perennial ryegrass variety “Veyo” and ecotype “Falster” from distinct geographical origins. We observed changes in fructan composition and induction of low-DP fructans, especially DP = 4, in both the top and the roots of “Veyo” and “Falster” in response to low-temperature stress. The accumulation of DP > 50 fructans was only apparent in the top tissues where the Lp1-FFT expression is higher compared to the roots in both “Veyo” and “Falster.” Our results also show the accumulation and depolymerization of fructans with different DP, together with the induction of genes encoding fructosyltransferases and fructan exohydrolases in both “Veyo” and “Falster” during cold acclimation, supporting the hypothesis that fructan synthesis and depolymerization occurring simultaneously. The ecotype “Falster,” adapted to cold climates, increased total fructan content and produced more DP > 7 fructans in the roots than the variety “Veyo,” adapted to warmer climates. This indicates that high-DP fructan accumulation in roots may be an adaptive trait for plant recovery after abiotic stresses. PMID:26029229

Sea ice-induced cold air advection as a mechanism controlling tundra primary productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macias-Fauria, M.; Karlsen, S. R.

2015-12-01

The recent sharp decline in Arctic sea ice extent, concentration, and volume leaves urgent questions regarding its effects on ecological processes. Changes in tundra productivity have been associated with sea ice dynamics on the basis that most tundra ecosystems lay close to the sea. Although some studies have addressed the potential effect of sea ice decline on the primary productivity of terrestrial arctic ecosystems (Bhatt et al., 2010), a clear picture of the mechanisms and patterns linking both processes remains elusive. We hypothesised that sea ice might influence tundra productivity through 1) cold air advection during the growing season (direct/weather effect) or 2) changes in regional climate induced by changes in sea ice (indirect/climate effect). We present a test on the direct/weather effect hypothesis: that is, tundra productivity is coupled with sea ice when sea ice remains close enough from land vegetation during the growing season for cold air advection to limit temperatures locally. We employed weekly MODIS-derived Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (as a proxy for primary productivity) and sea ice data at a spatial resolution of 232m for the period 2000-2014 (included), covering the Svalbard Archipelago. Our results suggest that sea ice-induced cold air advection is a likely mechanism to explain patterns of NDVI trends and heterogeneous spatial dynamics in the Svalbard archipelago. The mechanism offers the potential to explain sea ice/tundra productivity dynamics in other Arctic areas.

Advanced Metal-Hydrides-Based Thermal Battery: A New Generation of High Density Thermal Battery Based on Advanced Metal Hydrides

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

HEATS Project: The University of Utah is developing a compact hot-and-cold thermal battery using advanced metal hydrides that could offer efficient climate control system for EVs. The team’s innovative designs of heating and cooling systems for EVs with high energy density, low-cost thermal batteries could significantly reduce the weight and eliminate the space constraint in automobiles. The thermal battery can be charged by plugging it into an electrical outlet while charging the electric battery and it produces heat and cold through a heat exchanger when discharging. The ultimate goal of the project is a climate-controlling thermal battery that can lastmore » up to 5,000 charge and discharge cycles while substantially increasing the driving range of EVs, thus reducing the drain on electric batteries.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

New inverter-driven ASHPs are gaining ground in colder climates. These systems operate at sub-zero temperatures without the use of electric resistance backup. There are still uncertainties, however, about cold-climate capacity and efficiency in cold weather and questions such as measuring: power consumption, supply, return, and outdoor air temperatures, and air flow through the indoor fan coil. CARB observed a wide range of operating efficiencies and outputs from site to site. Maximum capacities were found to be generally in line with manufacturer's claims as outdoor temperatures fell to -10 degrees F. The reasons for the wide range in heating performance likelymore » include: low indoor air flow rates, poor placement of outdoor units, relatively high return air temperatures, thermostat set back, integration with existing heating systems, and occupants limiting indoor fan speed. Even with lower efficiencies than published in other studies, most of the heat pumps here still provide heat at lower cost than oil, propane, or certainly electric resistance systems.« less

Understanding Sun-Climate Connection by Analysis of Historical Sunspot, Auroral and Weather Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, K. D.; Yau, K. K.

2005-12-01

Fifty years of galactic cosmic ray data show changes with the solar cycle. Deflection of the highly energetic particles from exploding supernovae by the solar wind and associated magnetic field also modulates cosmogenic radioisotope production high in the atmosphere. The same trends are seen in carbon-14 and beryllium-10 abundances from long-lived trees and polar ice cores, respectively. Total solar irradiances measured by satellite radiometers show a 0.1% variance over the last two solar cycles, with only a small effect on global temperatures. A longer view is obviously needed. During the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) sunspots were rarely seen. Total solar irradiances, reconstructed from historical sunspot data, were 0.24% lower, correlating nicely with an estimated 0.5-degree drop in Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures during the Little Ice Age [Lean and Rind, J. Clim. 11, 3069, 1998]. A longer time series has been reconstructed from even earlier records. From the frequencies of sunspot and auroral sightings in East Asian and European chronicles, C-14 and Be-10 abundances we have reconstructed the recent history of a variable Sun. In the past 1800 years the Sun has gone through nine cycles of brightness change. Although these long-term changes were <1% they have clearly affected the climate [Pang and Yau, Eos 83, No. 43, 481, 2002]. We have also analyzed Chinese historical weather records for comparison. Reports of unseasonable cold are classified by their degree of severity: (1) Late (April-June) or early (July-Sept.) killing frosts; (2) Bitter cold/heavy snowfall; and (3) Heavy sustained snowfall, bitter cold with frozen wells, lakes, rivers and icebound seas. The latter cases were often widespread and multi-year. All categories occurred most often during Maunder Minimum. The Category 3 episodes were in 1652-54, 1656, 1664, 1670-72, 1676-77, 1683, 1688-91, 1716 and 1718-19. The coldest time 1670-1697 coincides with lows in aurora sightings and numerical model simulated temperatures, and highs in radioisotope production. There was only one Category 3 episode between the Maunder and Dalton Minima-in 1761 (due to a big eruption); and two in the Dalton Minimum (1795-1825)-in 1796 and 1814-17. The 1815 Tambora eruption, with the reduced solar luminosity, seem to have been responsible for the "year without summer" and long-cold spell. The Sun has brightened since the Dalton Minimum, but the climate of China stayed cold through the 19th century. However there were only two Category 3 episodes: in 1841 and 1877. The onset of global warming reduced that to just once in the 20th century: 1955. The climate of China seems to have been warm during the Late 14th-Century Maximum (1350-1410). We have found only one Category 1 episode: in 1393. It then turned cold during the Sporer Minimum (1410-1590). Category 3 episodes occurred in 1453-54, 1493, 1513, 1569, and 1577-78. The early 1453 great Kuwae eruption apparently deepened and prolonged the first [Pang, Eos 74, No. 43, 106, 1993; Simarski, Aramco World 47, No.6, 8, 1996]. We conclude that the climate of China in the past 650 years generally follows world trend. The major forcing seems to have been changing solar luminosity, as all but four severe weather episodes coincide with solar minimum. The exact mechanism remains unknown, but could have been increased cloudiness.

The SEDIBUD (Sediment Budgets in Cold Environments) Programme: Current activities and future key tasks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beylich, A. A.; Lamoureux, S. F.; Decaulne, A.

2012-04-01

Projected climate change in cold regions is expected to alter melt season duration and intensity, along with the number of extreme rainfall events, total annual precipitation and the balance between snowfall and rainfall. Similarly, changes to the thermal balance are expected to reduce the extent of permafrost and seasonal ground frost and increase active layer depths. These effects will undoubtedly change surface environments in cold regions and alter the fluxes of sediments, nutrients and solutes, but the absence of quantitative data and coordinated process monitoring and analysis to understand the sensitivity of the Earth surface environment is acute in cold climate environments. The International Association of Geomorphologists (I.A.G./A.I.G.)SEDIBUD (Sediment Budgets in Cold Environments) Programme was formed in 2005 to address this existing key knowledge gap. SEDIBUD currently has about 400 members worldwide and the Steering Committee of this international programme is composed of ten scientists from eight different countries: Achim A. Beylich (Chair) (Norway), Armelle Decaulne (Secretary) (France), John C. Dixon (USA), Scott F. Lamoureux (Vice-Chair) (Canada), John F. Orwin (Canada), Jan-Christoph Otto (Austria), Irina Overeem (USA), Thorsteinn Saemundsson (Iceland), Jeff Warburton (UK), Zbigniew Zwolinski (Poland). The central research question of this global group of scientists is to: Assess and model the contemporary sedimentary fluxes in cold climates, with emphasis on both particulate and dissolved components. Initially formed as European Science Foundation (ESF) Network SEDIFLUX (2004-2006), SEDIBUD has further expanded to a global group of researchers with field research sites located in polar and alpine regions in the northern and southern hemisphere. Research carried out at each of the close to 50 defined SEDIBUD key test sites varies by programme, logistics and available resources, but typically represent interdisciplinary collaborations of geomorphologists, hydrologists, ecologists, permafrost scientists and glaciologists. SEDIBUD has developed manuals and protocols (SEDIFLUX Manual, available online, see below) with a key set of primary surface process monitoring and research data requirements to incorporate results from these diverse projects and allow coordinated quantitative analysis across the programme. Defined SEDIBUD key test sites provide data on annual climate conditions, total discharge and particulate and dissolved fluxes as well as information on other relevant surface processes. A number of selected key test sites is providing high-resolution data on climate conditions, runoff and sedimentary fluxes, which in addition to the annual data contribute to the SEDIBUD metadata database which is currently developed. Comparable datasets from different SEDIBUD key test sites are integrated and analysed to address key research questions as defined in the SEDIBUD Objective (available online, see below). Defined SEDIBUD key tasks for the coming years include (i) The continued generation and compilation of comparable longer-term datasets on contemporary sedimentary fluxes and sediment yields from SEDIBUD key test sites worldwide, (ii) The continued extension of the SEDIBUD metadata database with these datasets, (iii) The testing of defined SEDIBUD hypotheses (available online, see below) by using the datasets continuously compiled in the SEDIBUD metadata database. Detailed information on the I.A.G./A.I.G. SEDIBUD Programme, SEDIBUD meetings, SEDIBUD publications and SEDIBUD online documents and databases is available at the SEDIBUD website under http://www.geomorph.org/wg/wgsb.html.

The ability of a cold-adapted Rhodotorula mucilaginosa strain from Tibet to control blue mold in pear fruit.

PubMed

Hu, Hao; Yan, Fujie; Wilson, Charles; Shen, Qing; Zheng, Xiaodong

2015-12-01

Cold-adapted yeasts were isolated from soil samples collected in Tibet and evaluated as potential biocontrol agents against blue mold (Penicillium expansum) of pear fruit in cold storage. YC1, an isolate identified as Rhodotorula mucilaginosa, was found to exhibit the greatest biocontrol activity among the different isolates that were screened. A washed cell suspension of YC1 exhibited the best biocontrol activity among three different preparations that were used in the current study. A concentration of 10(8) cells/ml reduced the incidence of decay to 35 %, compared to the control where decay incidence was 100 %. A higher intracellular level of trehalose and a higher proportion of polyunsaturated acids present in YC1, was associated with increased the tolerance of this strain to low temperatures, relative to the other strains that were evaluated. The increased tolerance to low temperature allowed the YC1 strain of yeast to more effectively compete for nutrients and space in wounded pear fruit that had been inoculated with spores of P. expansum and placed in cold storage. The present study demonstrated the ability to select cold-adapted yeasts from cold climates and use them as biocontrol agents of postharvest diseases of fruit placed in cold storage.

Influence of sky view factor on outdoor thermal environment and physiological equivalent temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xiaodong; Miao, Shiguang; Shen, Shuanghe; Li, Ju; Zhang, Benzhi; Zhang, Ziyue; Chen, Xiujie

2015-03-01

Sky view factor (SVF), which is an indicator of urban canyon geometry, affects the surface energy balance, local air circulation, and outdoor thermal comfort. This study focused on a continuous and long-term meteorological observation system to investigate the effects of SVF on outdoor thermal conditions and physiological equivalent temperature (PET) in the central business district (CBD) of Beijing (which is located within Chaoyang District), specifically addressed current knowledge gaps for SVF-PET relationships in cities with typical continental/microthermal climates. An urban sub-domain scale model and the RayMan model were used to diagnose wind fields and to calculate SVF and long-term PET, respectively. Analytical results show that the extent of shading contributes to variations in thermal perception distribution. Highly shaded areas (SVF <0.3) typically exhibit less frequent hot conditions during summer, while enduring longer periods of cold discomfort in winter than moderately shaded areas (0.3< SVF <0.5) and slightly shaded areas (SVF >0.5), and vice versa. Because Beijing has a monsoon-influenced humid continental climate with hot summers and long, cold, windy, and dry winters, a design project that ideally provides moderate shading should be planned to balance hot discomfort in summer and cold discomfort in winter, which effectively prolongs the comfort periods in outdoor spaces throughout the entire year. This research indicate that climate zone characteristics, urban environmental conditions, and thermal comfort requirements of residents must be accounted for in local-scale scientific planning and design, i.e., for urban canyon streets and residential estates.

Climate extremes drive changes in functional community structure.

PubMed

Boucek, Ross E; Rehage, Jennifer S

2014-06-01

The response of communities to climate extremes can be quite variable. Much of this variation has been attributed to differences in community-specific functional trait diversity, as well as community composition. Yet, few if any studies have explicitly tested the response of the functional trait structure of communities following climate extremes (CEs). Recently in South Florida, two independent, but sequential potential CEs took place, a 2010 cold front, followed by a 2011 drought, both of which had profound impacts on a subtropical estuarine fish community. These CEs provided an opportunity to test whether the structure of South Florida fish communities following each extreme was a result of species-specific differences in functional traits. From historical temperature (1927-2012) and freshwater inflows records into the estuary (1955-2012), we determined that the cold front was a statistically extreme disturbance, while the drought was not, but rather a decadal rare disturbance. The two disturbances predictably affected different parts of functional community structure and thus different component species. The cold front virtually eliminated tropical species, including large-bodied snook, mojarra species, nonnative cichlids, and striped mullet, while having little affect on temperate fishes. Likewise, the drought severely impacted freshwater fishes including Florida gar, bowfin, and two centrarchids, with little effect on euryhaline species. Our findings illustrate the ability of this approach to predict and detect both the filtering effects of different types of disturbances and the implications of the resulting changes in community structure. Further, we highlight the value of this approach to developing predictive frameworks for better understanding community responses to global change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Are human hands and feet affected by climate? A test of Allen's rule.

PubMed

Betti, Lia; Lycett, Stephen J; von Cramon-Taubadel, Noreen; Pearson, Osbjorn M

2015-09-01

In recent years, several studies have shown that populations from cold, high-latitude regions tend to have relatively shorter limbs than populations from tropical regions, with most of the difference due to the relative length of the zeugopods (i.e., radius, ulna, tibia, fibula). This pattern has been explained either as the consequence of long-term climatic selection or of phenotypic plasticity, with temperature having a direct effect on bone growth during development. The aims of this study were to test whether this pattern of intra-limb proportions extended to the bones of the hands and feet, and to determine whether the pattern remained significant after taking into account the effects of neutral evolutionary processes related to population history. Measurements of the limb bones, including the first metatarsal and metacarpal, were collected for 393 individuals from 10 globally distributed human populations. The relationship between intra-limb indices and minimum temperature was tested using generalized least squares regression, correcting for spatial autocorrelation. The results confirmed previous observations of a temperature-related gradient in intra-limb proportions, even accounting for population history. This pattern extends to the hands, with populations from cold regions displaying a relatively shorter and stockier first metacarpal; however, the first metatarsal appears to be wider but not shorter in cold-adapted populations. The results suggest that climatic adaptation played a role in shaping variation in limb proportions between human populations. The different patterns shown by the hands and feet might be due to the presence of evolutionary constraints on the foot to maintain efficient bipedal locomotion. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Seasonal variations in aridity and temperature characterize changing climate during the last deglaciation in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikes, Elisabeth L.; Medeiros, Patricia M.; Augustinus, Paul; Wilmshurst, Janet M.; Freeman, Katherine R.

2013-08-01

New multiproxy records of aridity from northern New Zealand assess the seasonality and overall pattern of wetness through the Last Glacial Coldest Period (LGCP) to the early Holocene in the subtropical Southwest Pacific. Biomass burning indicators based on terrestrial biomarkers and δ13C of individual plant leaf wax carbon compounds (n-alkanoic acids) from a maar lake were used to track aridity. In combination with published sea surface temperatures and new pollen-based temperature estimates from the same core, seasonal climatological changes in the Auckland area were determined from 27 to 9 cal. ka BP. These proxies document a shift from cold and dry conditions in the Last Glacial Maximum to seasonally wetter conditions through the deglaciation. Spring became warmer first and possibly wetter while summers remained drier and initially cooler. The progression from cold-dry to warm-wet was punctuated by the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) which stands out as having wetter conditions in both spring and summer and mild cooling largely concentrated in spring. The seasonal climate trends observed here can be plausibly explained by a rapid change from a subpolar climate to one with subtropical control in this region of the southwest Pacific across the Last Glacial to Interglacial transition. A southerly shift and decreasing intensity of the westerly wind belt after the LGCP is considered to have driven the early deglacial warming and pulse of wetness whereas a northward shift without a commensurate increase in intensity of the westerlies may explain conditions in the ACR.

Event attribution: Human influence on the record-breaking cold event in January of 2016 in Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, C.; Wang, J.; Dong, S.; Yin, H.; Burke, C.; Ciavarella, A.; Dong, B.; Freychet, N.; Lott, F. C.; Tett, S. F.

2017-12-01

It is controversial whether Asian mid-latitude cold surges are becoming more likely as a consequence of Arctic warming. Here, we present an event attribution study in mid-latitude Eastern China. A strong cold surge occurred during 21st-25th January 2016 affecting most areas of China, especially Eastern China. Daily minimum temperature (Tmin) records were broken at many stations. The area averaged anomaly of Tmin over the region (20-44N, 100-124E) for this pentad was the lowest temperature recorded since modern meteorological observations started in 1960. This cold event occurred in a background of the warmest winter Tmin since 1960. Given the vast damages caused by this extreme cold event in Eastern China and the previous mentioned controversy, it is compelling to investigate how much anthropogenic forcing agents have affected the probability of cold events with an intensity equal to or larger than the January 2016 extreme event. We use the Met Office Hadley Centre system for Attribution of extreme weather and Climate Events and station observations to investigate the effect of anthropogenic forcings on the likelihood of such a cold event. Anthropogenic influences are estimated to have reduced the likelihood of an extreme cold event in mid-winter with the intensity equal to or stronger than the record of 2016 in Eastern China by about 2/3.

Come rain or shine: Multi-model Projections of Climate Hazards affecting Transportation in the South Central United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullens, E.; Mcpherson, R. A.

2016-12-01

This work develops detailed trends in climate hazards affecting the Department of Transportation's Region 6, in the South Central U.S. Firstly, a survey was developed to gather information regarding weather and climate hazards in the region from the transportation community, identifying key phenomena and thresholds to evaluate. Statistically downscaled datasets were obtained from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues (MACA) project, and the Asynchronous Regional Regression Model (ARRM), for a total of 21 model projections, two coupled model intercomparisons (CMIP3, and CMIP5), and four emissions pathways (A1Fi, B1, RCP8.5, RCP4.5). Specific hazards investigated include winter weather, freeze-thaw cycles, hot and cold extremes, and heavy precipitation. Projections for each of these variables were calculated for the region, utilizing spatial mapping, and time series analysis at the climate division level. The results indicate that cold-season phenomena such as winter weather, freeze-thaw, and cold extremes, decrease in intensity and frequency, particularly with the higher emissions pathways. Nonetheless, specific model and downscaling method yields variability in magnitudes, with the most notable decreasing trends late in the 21st century. Hot days show a pronounced increase, particularly with greater emissions, producing annual mean 100oF day frequencies by late 21st century analogous to the 2011 heatwave over the central Southern Plains. Heavy precipitation, evidenced by return period estimates and counts-over-thresholds, also show notable increasing trends, particularly between the recent past through mid-21st Century. Conversely, mean precipitation does not show significant trends and is regionally variable. Precipitation hazards (e.g., winter weather, extremes) diverge between downscaling methods and their associated model samples much more substantially than temperature, suggesting that the choice of global model and downscaled data is particularly important when considering region-specific impacts for precipitation. These results are intended to inform region transportation professionals of the susceptibility of the area to climate extremes, and to be a resource for assessing and incorporating changing risk probabilities into their planning processes.

A Reconstruction of Sea Surface Temperature Gradients and an Assessment of the Suspected Presence of Continental Ice During the Cold Mid-Paleocene (61-57 Ma)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bijl, P.; Cramwinckel, M.; Frieling, J.; Peterse, F.

2016-12-01

The early Eocene `hothouse' climate experienced paratropical vegetation on high latitudes and high (>1100 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. It is generally considered as analogous to the endmember climate state should we use up all available fossil fuels. However, we do not know exactly through which processes this long-term warm episode came to be nor do we understand what the initial climate state was at the onset of this long-term climate. Deep-sea warming towards early Eocene hothouse conditions started in the mid-Paleocene, ending a 2 Myr time interval of relatively cold deep ocean temperatures. Reconstructed pCO2 concentrations of the mid-Paleocene seem to have been close to those of present-day, although data is scarce. The mid-Paleocene is notoriously sparsely represented in shelf sedimentary records, as most records show a conspicuous hiatus between 58 and 60 Mys. This gives the suggestion of a major global low in sea level, which is inconsistent with estimates of global ocean spreading rates, which suggest a relatively high sea level on long time scales for the Cretaceous-early Paleogene. The cold deep-sea temperatures, the conspicuously low sea level and low atmospheric CO2 during the mid-Paleocene have stimulated suggestions of the presence of major ice sheets on the poles, yet the absence of any trace for continental ice, either direct ice-proximal evidence or from benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope records, calls the presence of such ice sheets into question. I will present a number of high resolution sea surface temperature records (based mostly on organic geochemical biomarker proxies) which start to reveal a latitudinal temperature gradient for the mid-Paleocene. Reconstructions come from shelf sediments from Tasmania, Australia, Tanzania, Tropical Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey). With these new records, I put Paleogene climate evolution into context. I will further present a review of shelf sedimentary records across the mid-paleocene to assess the sea level variability in this time, to verifiy the suspected presence of continental ice, and speculate on possible alternative mechanisms for sea level change.

Communal nesting under climate change: fitness consequences of higher incubation temperatures for a nocturnal lizard.

PubMed

Dayananda, Buddhi; Gray, Sarah; Pike, David; Webb, Jonathan K

2016-07-01

Communal nesting lizards may be vulnerable to climate warming, particularly if air temperatures regulate nest temperatures. In southeastern Australia, velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii lay eggs communally inside rock crevices. We investigated whether increases in air temperatures could elevate nest temperatures, and if so, how this could influence hatching phenotypes, survival, and population dynamics. In natural nests, maximum daily air temperature influenced mean and maximum daily nest temperatures, implying that nest temperatures will increase under climate warming. To determine whether hotter nests influence hatchling phenotypes, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current 'cold' nests (mean = 23.2 °C, range 10-33 °C) and future 'hot' nests (27.0 °C, 14-37 °C). 'Hot' incubation temperatures produced smaller hatchlings than did cold temperature incubation. We released individually marked hatchlings into the wild in 2014 and 2015, and monitored their survival over 10 months. In 2014 and 2015, hot-incubated hatchlings had higher annual mortality (99%, 97%) than cold-incubated (11%, 58%) or wild-born hatchlings (78%, 22%). To determine future trajectories of velvet gecko populations under climate warming, we ran population viability analyses in Vortex and varied annual rates of hatchling mortality within the range 78- 96%. Hatchling mortality strongly influenced the probability of extinction and the mean time to extinction. When hatchling mortality was >86%, populations had a higher probability of extinction (PE: range 0.52- 1.0) with mean times to extinction of 18-44 years. Whether future changes in hatchling survival translate into reduced population viability will depend on the ability of females to modify their nest-site choices. Over the period 1992-2015, females used the same communal nests annually, suggesting that there may be little plasticity in maternal nest-site selection. The impacts of climate change may therefore be especially severe on communal nesting species, particularly if such species occupy thermally challenging environments. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

FUM2, a Cytosolic Fumarase, Is Essential for Acclimation to Low Temperature in Arabidopsis thaliana1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Dyson, Beth C.; Miller, Matthew A.E.; Feil, Regina; Rattray, Nicholas; Bowsher, Caroline G.

2016-01-01

Although cold acclimation is a key process in plants from temperate climates, the mechanisms sensing low temperature remain obscure. Here, we show that the accumulation of the organic acid fumaric acid, mediated by the cytosolic fumarase FUM2, is essential for cold acclimation of metabolism in the cold-tolerant model species Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana). A nontargeted metabolomic approach, using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, identifies fumarate as a key component of the cold response in this species. Plants of T-DNA insertion mutants, lacking FUM2, show marked differences in their response to cold, with contrasting responses both in terms of metabolite concentrations and gene expression. The fum2 plants accumulated higher concentrations of phosphorylated sugar intermediates and of starch and malate. Transcripts for proteins involved in photosynthesis were markedly down-regulated in fum2.2 but not in wild-type Columbia-0. Plants of fum2 show a complete loss of the ability to acclimate photosynthesis to low temperature. We conclude that fumarate accumulation plays an essential role in low temperature sensing in Arabidopsis, either indirectly modulating metabolic or redox signals or possibly being itself directly involved in cold sensing. PMID:27440755

Towards a wearable sensor system for continuous occupational cold stress assessment

PubMed Central

AUSTAD, Hanne; WIGGEN, Øystein; FÆREVIK, Hilde; SEEBERG, Trine M.

2018-01-01

This study investigated the usefulness of continuous sensor data for improving occupational cold stress assessment. Eleven volunteer male subjects completed a 90–120-min protocol in cold environments, consisting of rest, moderate and hard work. Biomedical data were measured using a smart jacket with integrated temperature, humidity and activity sensors, in addition to a custom-made sensor belt worn around the chest. Other relevant sensor data were measured using commercially available sensors. The study aimed to improve decision support for workers in cold climates, by taking advantage of the information provided by data from the rapidly growing market of wearable sensors. Important findings were that the subjective thermal sensation did not correspond to the measured absolute skin temperature and that large differences were observed in both metabolic energy production and skin temperatures under identical exposure conditions. Temperature, humidity, activity and heart rate were found to be relevant parameters for cold stress assessment, and the locations of the sensors in the prototype jacket were adequate. The study reveals the need for cold stress assessment and indicates that a generalised approached is not sufficient to assess the stress on an individual level. PMID:29353859

Effect of high CO{sub 2} on cold acclimation and deacclimation of three conifers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tinus, R.W.; Greer, D.H.; Robinson, L.A.

1995-12-31

Atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels are rising, and whether or not this leads to a climate change, high CO{sub 2} is known to have some direct effects of plants. One aspect that has only begun to be explored is possible effects on cold hardiness. Well adapted woody plants can tolerate the lowest temperatures to which they may be exposed at all times of the year. Every year temperate and boral woody plants must cold harden in a timely manner in autumn, become hardy enough to withstand the coldest winter temperatures, and not lose their hardiness prematurely in the spring. The authorsmore » objective was to determine the effect of elevated CO{sub 2} on cold acclimation and deacclimation of three commercially important conifers. Seedlings of three conifers were cold hardened and dehardened in growth rooms under 350 or 700 ppm CO{sub 2}. High CO{sub 2} had little effect on cold hardiness of radiata pine, but increased autumn and spring hardiness of Douglas-fir. High CO{sub 2} increased hardiness of ponderosa pine in autumn and decreased it in the spring.« less

Fossils tell of mild winters in an ancient hothouse

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, R.A.

Fossil evidence from the Eocene points to a warmer winter climate in the continental interior (e.g. North Dakota) than that predicted by computer models. Paleobotanists have been able to quantify approximate winter mean temperatures by using leaf characteristics. As one example, leaves from colder climates have toothed edges. Leaf structure was correlated with modern climate regimes, and these relations were then applied to Eocene fossils. They found cold-month mean temperatures of 1-8[degrees]C in Wyoming and Montana, well above model predictions. Climate models can be manipulated to reproduce these temperatures, but not without overheating the entire globe. The problem could bemore » that the Eocene atmospheric circulation was different from today, something not accounted for well by climate models.« less

Long-term climate change and the geochemical cycle of carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshall, Hal G.; Walker, James C. G.; Kuhn, William R.

1988-01-01

The response of the coupled climate-geochemical system to changes in paleography is examined in terms of the biogeochemical carbon cycle. The simple, zonally averaged energy balance climate model combined with a geochemical carbon cycle model, which was developed to study climate changes, is described. The effects of latitudinal distributions of the continents on the carbon cycle are investigated, and the global silicate weathering rate as a function of latitude is measured. It is observed that a concentration of land area at high altitudes results in a high CO2 partial pressure and a high global average temperature, and for land at low latitudes a cold globe and ice are detected. It is noted that the CO2 greenhouse feedback effect is potentially strong and has a stabilizing effect on the climate system.

La Niña Exit Leaves Climate Forecasts in Limbo

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-07-06

The latest image of Pacific Ocean sea surface heights from the NASA OSTIM/Jason-2 oceanography satellite, on June 11, 2010, shows that Pacific has switched from warm red to cold blue during the last few months.

Mars at war

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2018-04-01

Whether the climate of early Mars was warm and wet or cold and dry remains unclear, but the debate is overheated. With a growing toolbox and increasing data to tackle the open questions, progress is possible if there is openness to bridging the divide.

Accelerated degradation and durability of concrete in cold climates.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-08-01

Degradation of aggregate in concrete can be caused by erosion or fracture, and both cementitious materials and aggregate age over time. : The specification requirements for the degradation of aggregates have been established for hot mix asphalt and f...

Adaptations to “Thermal Time” Constraints in Papilio: Latitudinal and Local Size Clines Differ in Response to Regional Climate Change

PubMed Central

Scriber, J. Mark; Elliot, Ben; Maher, Emily; McGuire, Molly; Niblack, Marjie

2014-01-01

Adaptations to “thermal time” (=Degree-day) constraints on developmental rates and voltinism for North American tiger swallowtail butterflies involve most life stages, and at higher latitudes include: smaller pupae/adults; larger eggs; oviposition on most nutritious larval host plants; earlier spring adult emergences; faster larval growth and shorter molting durations at lower temperatures. Here we report on forewing sizes through 30 years for both the northern univoltine P. canadensis (with obligate diapause) from the Great Lakes historical hybrid zone northward to central Alaska (65° N latitude), and the multivoltine, P. glaucus from this hybrid zone southward to central Florida (27° N latitude). Despite recent climate warming, no increases in mean forewing lengths of P. glaucus were observed at any major collection location (FL to MI) from the 1980s to 2013 across this long latitudinal transect (which reflects the “converse of Bergmann’s size Rule”, with smaller females at higher latitudes). Unlike lower latitudes, the Alaska, Ontonogon, and Chippewa/Mackinac locations (for P. canadensis) showed no significant increases in D-day accumulations, which could explain lack of size change in these northernmost locations. As a result of 3–4 decades of empirical data from major collection sites across these latitudinal clines of North America, a general “voltinism/size/D-day” model is presented, which more closely predicts female size based on D-day accumulations, than does latitude. However, local “climatic cold pockets” in northern Michigan and Wisconsin historically appeared to exert especially strong size constraints on female forewing lengths, but forewing lengths quickly increased with local summer warming during the recent decade, especially near the warming edges of the cold pockets. Results of fine-scale analyses of these “cold pockets” are in contrast to non-significant changes for other Papilio populations seen across the latitudinal transect for P. glaucus and P. canadensis in general, highlighting the importance of scale in adaptations to climate change. Furthermore, we also show that rapid size increases in cold pocket P. canadensis females with recent summer warming are more likely to result from phenotypic plasticity than genotypic introgression from P. glaucus, which does increase size in late-flight hybrids and P. appalachiensis. PMID:26462585

Adaptations to "Thermal Time" Constraints in Papilio: Latitudinal and Local Size Clines Differ in Response to Regional Climate Change.

PubMed

Scriber, J Mark; Elliot, Ben; Maher, Emily; McGuire, Molly; Niblack, Marjie

2014-01-21

Adaptations to "thermal time" (=Degree-day) constraints on developmental rates and voltinism for North American tiger swallowtail butterflies involve most life stages, and at higher latitudes include: smaller pupae/adults; larger eggs; oviposition on most nutritious larval host plants; earlier spring adult emergences; faster larval growth and shorter molting durations at lower temperatures. Here we report on forewing sizes through 30 years for both the northern univoltine P. canadensis (with obligate diapause) from the Great Lakes historical hybrid zone northward to central Alaska (65° N latitude), and the multivoltine, P. glaucus from this hybrid zone southward to central Florida (27° N latitude). Despite recent climate warming, no increases in mean forewing lengths of P. glaucus were observed at any major collection location (FL to MI) from the 1980s to 2013 across this long latitudinal transect (which reflects the "converse of Bergmann's size Rule", with smaller females at higher latitudes). Unlike lower latitudes, the Alaska, Ontonogon, and Chippewa/Mackinac locations (for P. canadensis) showed no significant increases in D-day accumulations, which could explain lack of size change in these northernmost locations. As a result of 3-4 decades of empirical data from major collection sites across these latitudinal clines of North America, a general "voltinism/size/D-day" model is presented, which more closely predicts female size based on D-day accumulations, than does latitude. However, local "climatic cold pockets" in northern Michigan and Wisconsin historically appeared to exert especially strong size constraints on female forewing lengths, but forewing lengths quickly increased with local summer warming during the recent decade, especially near the warming edges of the cold pockets. Results of fine-scale analyses of these "cold pockets" are in contrast to non-significant changes for other Papilio populations seen across the latitudinal transect for P. glaucus and P. canadensis in general, highlighting the importance of scale in adaptations to climate change. Furthermore, we also show that rapid size increases in cold pocket P. canadensis females with recent summer warming are more likely to result from phenotypic plasticity than genotypic introgression from P. glaucus, which does increase size in late-flight hybrids and P. appalachiensis.

Multiple cold resistance loci confer the high cold tolerance adaptation of Dongxiang wild rice (Oryza rufipogon) to its high-latitude habitat.

PubMed

Mao, Donghai; Yu, Li; Chen, Dazhou; Li, Lanying; Zhu, Yuxing; Xiao, Yeqing; Zhang, Dechun; Chen, Caiyan

2015-07-01

Dongxiang wild rice is phylogenetically close to temperate japonica and contains multiple cold resistance loci conferring its adaptation to high-latitude habitat. Understanding the nature of adaptation in wild populations will benefit crop breeding in the development of climate-resilient crop varieties. Dongxiang wild rice (DXWR), the northernmost common wild rice known, possesses a high degree of cold tolerance and can survive overwintering in its native habitat. However, to date, it is still unclear how DXWR evolved to cope with low-temperature environment, resulting in limited application of DXWR in rice breeding programs. In this study, we carried out both QTL mapping and phylogenetic analysis to discern the genetic mechanism underlying the strong cold resistance. Through a combination of interval mapping and single locus analysis in two genetic populations, at least 13 QTLs for seedling cold tolerance were identified in DXWR. A phylogenetic study using both genome-wide InDel markers and markers associated with cold tolerance loci reveals that DXWR belongs to the Or-III group, which is most closely related to cold-tolerant Japonica rice rather than to the Indica cultivars that are predominant in the habitat where DXWR grows. Our study paves the way toward an understanding of the nature of adaptation to a northern habitat in O. rufipogon. The QTLs identified in DXWR in this study will be useful for molecular breeding of cold-tolerant rice.

Lateglacial climate reconstruction on the Bolivian Altiplano inferred from paleoglaciers and paleolakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Léo; Blard, Pierre-Henri; Lavé, Jérôme; Prémaillon, Mélody; Jomelli, Vincent; Brunstein, Daniel; Lupker, Maarten; Charreau, Julien; Mariotti, Véronique; Condom, Thomas; Bourles, Didier

2016-04-01

Recent insights shed light on the global mechanisms involved in the abrupt oscillations of the Earth climate for the Late Glacial Maximum (LGM) to Holocene period (Zhang et al., 2014; Banderas et al., 2015). Yet the concomitant patterns of regional climate reorganization on continental areas are for now poorly documented. Particularly, few attempts have been made to propose temporal reconstructions of the regional climate variables in the High Tropical Andes, a region under the influence of multiple global climate forcings (Jomelli et al., 2014). We present new glacial chronologies from four sites of the Bolivian Altiplano: the Wara-Wara valley (17.3°S - 66.1°W), the Zongo valley (16.3°S - 68.1°W), the Cerro Tunupa (19.8°S - 67.6°W) and the Nevado Sajama (18.1°S 68.9°W). These chronologies are based on Cosmic Ray Exposure dating (CRE) from an exceptional suite of recessive moraines. These new data permitted to refine existing chronologies of Smith et al., 2005; Zech et al., 2010 and Blard et al., 2009. In both sites, glaciers recorded stillstand episodes synchronous with cold events such as the Henrich 1 event, the Younger Dryas and the Antarctic Cold Reversal. Since the nearby Altiplano basin registered lake level variations over the same period, we were able to apply a joint modelling of glaciers Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) and lake budget. This method permits to derive a temporal evolution of temperature and precipitation for the four sites. These new reconstructions show for all sites that glaciers of the Tropical Andes were influenced by the major climatic events of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Furthermore, the temperature variability observed at high latitudes results in these tropical latitudes in major precipitation variability whereas the lateglacial temperature patterns remain globally monotonic. This conversion of global temperature variability into regional precipitation variability support the idea that North Hemisphere cold events are coeval with an important southward deflexion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) due to the inter-hemispheric temperature gradient (Schneider et al., 2014). Such a southward shift would lead to an increased moist supply of the subequatorial Amazonian basin (Montade et al., 2015) and thus an increased easterly driven moist transport over the Altiplano.