Cautions on the Use of Investigative Case Studies in Meta-Evaluation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Nick L.

1990-01-01

A meta-analysis combining expert evaluation with naturalistic case study methods indicates that such investigations must use special methods to render evaluative judgments of worth. It is demonstrated that descriptive, interpretive, and evaluative aspects of such a study must be combined to yield justifiable conclusions. (TJH)

Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases

PubMed Central

Aspinall, W. P.; Cooke, R. M.; Havelaar, A. H.; Hoffmann, S.; Hald, T.

2016-01-01

For many societally important science-based decisions, data are inadequate, unreliable or non-existent, and expert advice is sought. In such cases, procedures for eliciting structured expert judgments (SEJ) are increasingly used. This raises questions regarding validity and reproducibility. This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert’s statistical accuracy and informativeness, determined using between ten and fifteen calibration variables from the experts' field with known values. Equal weights combinations were also calculated. The main conclusions on expert performance are: (1) SEJ does provide a science-based method for attribution of the global burden of foodborne diseases; (2) equal weighting of experts per panel increased statistical accuracy to acceptable levels, but at the cost of informativeness; (3) performance-based weighting increased informativeness, while retaining accuracy; (4) due to study constraints individual experts’ accuracies were generally lower than in other SEJ studies, and (5) there was a negative correlation between experts' informativeness and statistical accuracy which attenuated as accuracy improved, revealing that the least accurate experts drive the negative correlation. It is shown, however, that performance-based weighting has the ability to yield statistically accurate and informative combinations of experts' judgments, thereby offsetting this contrary influence. The present findings suggest that application of SEJ on a large scale is feasible, and motivate the development of enhanced training and tools for remote elicitation of multiple, internationally-dispersed panels. PMID:26930595

Using a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to determine product usability: A proposed theoretical framework

PubMed Central

Zhou, Ronggang; Chan, Alan H. S.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: In order to compare existing usability data to ideal goals or to that for other products, usability practitioners have tried to develop a framework for deriving an integrated metric. However, most current usability methods with this aim rely heavily on human judgment about the various attributes of a product, but often fail to take into account of the inherent uncertainties in these judgments in the evaluation process. OBJECTIVE: This paper presents a universal method of usability evaluation by combining the analytic hierarchical process (AHP) and the fuzzy evaluation method. By integrating multiple sources of uncertain information during product usability evaluation, the method proposed here aims to derive an index that is structured hierarchically in terms of the three usability components of effectiveness, efficiency, and user satisfaction of a product. METHODS: With consideration of the theoretical basis of fuzzy evaluation, a two-layer comprehensive evaluation index was first constructed. After the membership functions were determined by an expert panel, the evaluation appraisals were computed by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation technique model to characterize fuzzy human judgments. Then with the use of AHP, the weights of usability components were elicited from these experts. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Compared to traditional usability evaluation methods, the major strength of the fuzzy method is that it captures the fuzziness and uncertainties in human judgments and provides an integrated framework that combines the vague judgments from multiple stages of a product evaluation process. PMID:28035943

Adaptation and fallibility in experts' judgments of novice performers.

PubMed

Larson, Jeffrey S; Billeter, Darron M

2017-02-01

Competition judges are often selected for their expertise, under the belief that a high level of performance expertise should enable accurate judgments of the competitors. Contrary to this assumption, we find evidence that expertise can reduce judgment accuracy. Adaptation level theory proposes that discriminatory capacity decreases with greater distance from one's adaptation level. Because experts' learning has produced an adaptation level close to ideal performance standards, they may be less able to discriminate among lower-level competitors. As a result, expertise increases judgment accuracy of high-level competitions but decreases judgment accuracy of low-level competitions. Additionally, we demonstrate that, consistent with an adaptation level theory account of expert judgment, experts systematically give more critical ratings than intermediates or novices. In summary, this work demonstrates a systematic change in human perception that occurs as task learning increases. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Defining the Correctness of a Diagnosis: Differential Judgments and Expert Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kanter, Steven L.; Brosenitsch, Teresa A.; Mahoney, John F.; Staszewski, James

2010-01-01

Approaches that use a simulated patient case to study and assess diagnostic reasoning usually use the correct diagnosis of the case as a measure of success and as an anchor for other measures. Commonly, the correctness of a diagnosis is determined by the judgment of one or more experts. In this study, the consistency of experts' judgments of the…

International study of expert judgment on therapeutic use of benzodiazepines and other psychotherapeutic medications: VI. Trends in recommendations for the pharmacotherapy of anxiety disorders, 1992-1997.

PubMed

Uhlenhuth, E H; Balter, M B; Ban, T A; Yang, K

1999-01-01

To assemble expert clinical experience and judgment regarding the treatment of anxiety disorders in a systematic, quantitative manner, particularly with respect to changes during the preceding five years. A panel of 73 internationally recognized experts in the pharmacotherapy of anxiety and depression was constituted by multistage peer nomination. Sixty-six completed a questionnaire in 1992, and 51 of those completed a follow-up questionnaire in 1997. This report focuses on the experts' responses to questions about therapeutic options relevant to seven vignettes describing typical cases of different anxiety disorders. The preferred initial treatment strategy in 1992 was a combination of medication with a psychological therapy for all vignettes except simple phobia, where a psychological procedure alone was favored. There was little change in 1997, primarily some decrease in the choice of psychological therapy and some increase in the choice of medication for social phobia. Experts recommending a medication in 1992 most often chose as first-line treatment a benzodiazepine anxiolytic (BZ) for panic disorder (PD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), simple phobia, and adjustment disorder. They recommended a beta-blocker most often for social phobia and a tricyclic anti-depressant (TCA) for agoraphobia and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Nearly a fourth chose a combination of medications, usually a TCA plus a BZ. In 1997, the expert panel's most frequent recommendation for agoraphobia, PD, and OCD changed to a specific serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI); and they also recommended these compounds more often for GAD, social phobia, and simple phobia. Fewer experts chose BZs or TCAs. However, in 1997 many again chose a combination of medications, often a BZ plus a SSRI, so that, overall, there was only a small decline in recommendations for BZs. As second-line medications (1997 only), the experts recommended SSRIs most often for most vignettes, but a TCA for PD and GAD. Recommendations for a combination of medications rose substantially for most vignettes, usually a BZ plus an antidepressant. Combined cognitive-behavioral therapy plus medication was highly favored by the experts as the initial treatment strategy for anxiety disorders. During the preceding five years, SSRIs displaced older antidepressants as the experts' first-line choices for the pharmacotherapy of anxiety disorders. In case of an unsatisfactory response, the experts' second-line choices more often were an older antidepressant or a combination of an antidepressant plus a BZ. According to the experts' judgements, the BZs, especially combined with an antidepressant, remain mainstays of pharmacotherapy for anxiety disorders.

Clinical judgments about endotracheal suctioning: what cues do expert pediatric critical care nurses consider?

PubMed

Thomas, Margot; Fothergill-Bourbonnais, Frances

2005-12-01

Making accurate and timely judgments based on multiple ways of knowing is an essential skill in critical care nursing practice. Studies have proposed that positive patient outcomes are linked to expert judgments in a variety of critical care situations; however, little is known about clinical judgments related to specific critical care nursing interventions. This article presents a qualitative nursing research study which examined the cues that expert pediatric critical care nurses used in making clinical judgments about suctioning intubated and ventilated, critically ill children. The participants' words and actions attest that the 'sensing' and 'thinking' of the process of cue use, are interwoven with, and integral to, the 'doing,' which is the process of skilled performance.

On Consistency Test Method of Expert Opinion in Ecological Security Assessment.

PubMed

Gong, Zaiwu; Wang, Lihong

2017-09-04

To reflect the initiative design and initiative of human security management and safety warning, ecological safety assessment is of great value. In the comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological security with the participation of experts, the expert's individual judgment level, ability and the consistency of the expert's overall opinion will have a very important influence on the evaluation result. This paper studies the consistency measure and consensus measure based on the multiplicative and additive consistency property of fuzzy preference relation (FPR). We firstly propose the optimization methods to obtain the optimal multiplicative consistent and additively consistent FPRs of individual and group judgments, respectively. Then, we put forward a consistency measure by computing the distance between the original individual judgment and the optimal individual estimation, along with a consensus measure by computing the distance between the original collective judgment and the optimal collective estimation. In the end, we make a case study on ecological security for five cities. Result shows that the optimal FPRs are helpful in measuring the consistency degree of individual judgment and the consensus degree of collective judgment.

Unleashing Expert Judgment in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, P. T.; Mach, K. J.; Mastrandrea, M.; Field, C. B.

2016-12-01

IPCC assessments are critical vehicles for evaluating and synthesizing existing knowledge about climate change, its impacts, and potential options for adaptation and mitigation. In these assessments, rigorous expert judgment is essential for characterizing current scientific understanding including persistent and complex uncertainties related to climate change. Over its history the IPCC has iteratively developed frameworks for evaluating and communicating what is known and what is not known about climate change science. In this presentation, we explore advances and challenges in approaches to evaluating and communicating expert judgment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). We present an analysis of the frequency of the use of calibrated degree-of-certainty terms in the policymaker summaries from the IPCC's AR5 and Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). We find that revised guidance for IPCC author teams in the AR5 improved the development of balanced judgments on scientific evidence across disciplines. Overall, degree-of-certainty terms are more abundant in the AR5 policymaker summaries compared to those of the AR4, demonstrating an increased commitment to extensively and transparently characterizing expert judgments underpinning report conclusions. This analysis also shows that while working groups still favor different degree-of-certainty scales in the AR5, authors employed a wider array of degree-of-certainty scales to communicate expert judgment supporting report findings compared to the policymaker summaries of the AR4. Finally, our analysis reveals greater inclusion of lower-certainty findings in the AR5 as compared to the AR4, critical for communicating a fuller range of possible climate change impacts and response options. Building on our findings we propose a simpler, more transparent, and more rigorous framework for developing and communicating expert judgments in future climate and environmental assessments.

Prioritization Methodology for Development of Required Operational Capabilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

to rank projects: The PROMETHEE method, European Journal of Operational Research, 24, 228-238. [4]. Edwards, W., F. H. Barron, (1994) SMARTS and...ISBN 0-07-052579-X. [13]. Rogers, S. H., T. P. Seager, K. H. Gardner, (2004) Combining expert judgment and stakeholder values with PROMETHEE : A

[The role of the Medical Scientific Council's Forensic Committee in the consent judgments regarding private insurance companies].

PubMed

Horváth, János

2008-08-03

During recent years the Medical Scientific Council's Forensic Committee has provided for the professional revision of the medico-legal experts' opinions and settled the inconsonance between inconsistent opinions. This paper analyses the relationship between the revised experts' opinions in damage suits and the consent judgments. The author assesses and evaluates the role and importance of the revised experts' opinions by the Forensic Committee in the process of lawsuits. The Court has evaluated positively about two thirds of the revised experts' opinions and incorporated the Committee's answers to the forensic questions into the judgments. Sometimes it has happened that the judge misunderstood the basic medical and experts' opinions terms. In certain cases the consultant doctor of forensic medicine, the expert of social insurance and the doctor of the business insurance company used different terms, which resulted in ambiguity of terms appearing in the judgments. The author recommends to elaborate a new methodical newsletter that defines the most important experts' opinions terms and background knowledge regarding damages in a way which is clear to all, and clarifies them according to everyday practice in order to make sure that experts working in different fields and dispensers of justice use a common language.

Assessing experience in the deliberate practice of running using a fuzzy decision-support system

PubMed Central

Roveri, Maria Isabel; Manoel, Edison de Jesus; Onodera, Andrea Naomi; Ortega, Neli R. S.; Tessutti, Vitor Daniel; Vilela, Emerson; Evêncio, Nelson

2017-01-01

The judgement of skill experience and its levels is ambiguous though it is crucial for decision-making in sport sciences studies. We developed a fuzzy decision support system to classify experience of non-elite distance runners. Two Mamdani subsystems were developed based on expert running coaches’ knowledge. In the first subsystem, the linguistic variables of training frequency and volume were combined and the output defined the quality of running practice. The second subsystem yielded the level of running experience from the combination of the first subsystem output with the number of competitions and practice time. The model results were highly consistent with the judgment of three expert running coaches (r>0.88, p<0.001) and also with five other expert running coaches (r>0.86, p<0.001). From the expert’s knowledge and the fuzzy model, running experience is beyond the so-called "10-year rule" and depends not only on practice time, but on the quality of practice (training volume and frequency) and participation in competitions. The fuzzy rule-based model was very reliable, valid, deals with the marked ambiguities inherent in the judgment of experience and has potential applications in research, sports training, and clinical settings. PMID:28817655

Two Methods for Classifying Jobs into Equal Employment Opportunity Categories. Working Paper 83/84-4-21.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Potter, Penny F.; Graham-Moore, Brian E.

Most organizations planning to assess adverse impact or perform a stock analysis for affirmative action planning must correctly classify their jobs into appropriate occupational categories. Two methods of job classification were assessed in a combination archival and field study. Classification results from expert judgment of functional job…

Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

2004-01-01

A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

Public judgments of information in a diazepam patient package insert.

PubMed

Fisher, S; Mansbridge, B; Lankford, D A

1982-06-01

As part of a larger study of the effects of giving patients written take-home information with prescription medications, a "patient package insert" (PPI) for diazepam was prepared based on content determined by "experts." This report compares the experts' judgments of what information should be included with judgments obtained from the public. Information judged to be most important for inclusion in a PPI was identified by having subjects sort cards containing facts about diazepam. Subjects who had previously used diazepam were no different in their judgments than inexperienced subjects. In general, there was a high degree of concordance between public and expert judgments and also a remarkably strong consensus across very different demographic samples. In those few instances of disagreement, the public attached even greater importance to warnings and "bad news" about diazepam than to information providing reassurances, benign general education, and "good news." To what extent patients would effectively use this information--whether conveyed by PPIs or alternative educational routes--must await empirical evaluation.

Influence of User Ratings, Expert Ratings and Purposes of Information Use on the Credibility Judgments of College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lim, Sook; Steffel, Nick

2015-01-01

Introduction: This study examined whether user ratings, expert ratings and the purpose of the use of a book on a user-generated site influenced the credibility of the book. It also examined whether the effects of user ratings and expert ratings on credibility judgments of the book varied according to the purpose of information use. In addition,…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pilat, Joseph F

The application of the methodology developed by the GenIV International Forum's (GIF's) Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) Working Group is an expert elicitation. Although the framework of the methodology is structured and systematic, it does not by itself constitute or require a formal elicitation. However, formal elicitation can be utilized in the PR&PP context to provide a systematic, credible and transparent qualitative analysis and develop input for quantitative analyses. This section provides an overview of expert elicitations, a discussion of the role formal expert elicitations can play in the PR&PP methodology, an outline of the formal expert elicitation processmore » and a brief practical guide to conducting formal expert elicitations. Expert elicitation is a process utilizing knowledgeable people in cases, for example, when an assessment is needed but physically based data is absent or open to interpretation. More specifically, it can be used to: (1) predict future events; (2) provide estimates on new, rare, complex or poorly understood phenomena; (3) integrate or interpret existing information; or (4) determine what is currently known, how well it is known or what is worth learning in a field. Expert elicitation can be informal or formal. The informal application of expert judgment is frequently used. Although it can produce good results, it often provides demonstrably biased or otherwise flawed answers to problems. This along with the absence of transparency can result in a loss of confidence when experts speak on issues. More formal expert elicitation is a structured process that makes use of people knowledgeable in certain areas to make assessments. The reason for advocating formal use is that the quality and accuracy of expert judgment comes from the completeness of the expert's understanding of the phenomena and the process used to elicit and analyze the data. The use of a more formal process to obtain, lU1derstand and analyze expert judgment has led to an improved acceptance of expert judgment because of the rigor and transparency of the results.« less

Examining corporate reputation judgments with generalizability theory.

PubMed

Highhouse, Scott; Broadfoot, Alison; Yugo, Jennifer E; Devendorf, Shelba A

2009-05-01

The researchers used generalizability theory to examine whether reputation judgments about corporations function in a manner consistent with contemporary theory in the corporate-reputation literature. University professors (n = 86) of finance, marketing, and human resources management made repeated judgments about the general reputations of highly visible American companies. Minimal variability in the judgments is explained by items, time, persons, and field of specialization. Moreover, experts from the different specializations reveal considerable agreement in how they weigh different aspects of corporate performance in arriving at their global reputation judgments. The results generally support the theory of the reputation construct and suggest that stable estimates of global reputation can be achieved with a small number of items and experts. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

The post-evaluation of green residential building in Ningxia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yunna; Wang, Zhen

2017-06-01

Green residential buildings are concerned by more and more people. However, the development of green residential buildings has been limited due to the single-standard requirements and lack of the multi-objective performance. At same time, the evaluation criteria system of green residential building is not comprehensive enough. So first of all, using SPSS software, residents questionnaire surveys are figured and found that the judge of experts and residents about the green elements is inconsistent, so the owners’ satisfaction is included in the post-evaluation criterial systems of green residential building from five aspects-the preliminary work of construction, construction process, economic, social benefits and owners satisfaction in Ningxia area, combined with expert interviews. Secondly, in the post-evaluation, it is difficult for many experts judgment matrix to meet the requirement of consistency, in this paper using MATLAB program, judgment matrix consistency is adjusted. And the weights of the criteria and sub-criteria and experts weights using group AHP method are determined. Finally, the grey clustering method is used to establish the post-evaluation model and the real case of Sai-shang project is carried out. It shows that the result obtained by using the improved criteria system and method in this paper is in a high degree of agreement with the actual result.

When do we believe experts? The power of the unorthodox view.

PubMed

Alison, Laurence; Almond, Louise; Christiansen, Paul; Waring, Sara; Power, Nicola; Villejoubert, Gaëlle

2012-01-01

This paper examines the extent to which orthodoxy (degree of typicality) and congruence (degree of similarity with own opinion) mediate the influence of expert advice on decision makers' judgments. Overall, 227 members of the public and 60 police officers completed an online questionnaire involving an investigation into a child sex offence. Participants were asked to first (i) formulate their own "profile" of a likely offender then (ii) estimate the guilt of two presented suspect descriptions (orthodox vs. unorthodox), and, following the presentation of an "expert's" profile that matched either the orthodox or the unorthodox suspect, (iii) re-evaluate their guilt judgments of the two suspects based on this new advice. Finally, (iv) the perceived similarity (congruence) between the participants' own and the expert profile was assessed. Results revealed two key findings. First, expert profiles that matched a suspect's description elevated perceptions of guilt in that suspect, whilst also, simultaneously, very significantly decreasing the perception of guilt of the alternative suspect. This suggests a powerful rejection and downward revision of the other suspect. Second, perceived similarity of the profile (to one's own profile) was only a significant factor in increasing guilt judgments when assigning guilt to the unorthodox (as opposed to orthodox) suspect. Comparisons of lay judgments with those of police officers revealed few significant differences in effects. The finding that advice is most influential when unorthodox and incongruent suggests that decision makers are more likely to reevaluate judgments when expert advice contributes novel information that contradicts their beliefs. The practical implications of these findings are discussed for profilers, police, and decision research in general. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Expert scientific judgment and cancer risk assessment: a pilot study of pharmacokinetic data.

PubMed

Hawkins, N C; Graham, J D

1988-12-01

When high-dose tumor data are extrapolated to low doses, it is typically assumed that the dose of a carcinogen delivered to target cells is proportional to the dose administered to test animals, even at exposure levels below the experimental range. Since pharmacokinetic data are becoming available that in some cases question the validity of this assumption, risk assessors must decide whether to maintain the standard assumption. A pilot study of formaldehyde is reported that was undertaken to demonstrate how expert scientific judgment can help guide a controversial risk assessment where pharmacokinetic data are considered inconclusive. Eight experts on pharmacokinetic data were selected by a formal procedure, and each was interviewed personally using a structured interview protocol. The results suggest that expert scientific opinion is polarized in this case, a situation that risk assessors can respond to with a range of risk characterizations considered biologically plausible by the experts. Convergence of expert opinion is likely in this case of several specific research strategies ar executed in a competent fashion. Elicitation of expert scientific judgment is a promising vehicle for evaluating the quality of pharmacokinetic data, expressing uncertainty in risk assessment, and fashioning a research agenda that offers possible forging of scientific consensus.

Bayesian methods in reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

The Galbraith judgment and the defence of diminished responsibility in Scotland.

PubMed

Hodelet, Nicola; Darjee, Rajan

2005-10-01

New case law on diminished responsibility in Scotland (Galbraith v. HM Advocate 2001) re-defined the defence and clarified the role of expert witnesses. We examined how this judgment affected the use of the defence, provision of expert evidence and the outcome of trials. We studied homicide cases in one area of Scotland in the year before and the year after the new judgment. Results indicated little change in the number of cases where the defence was used, but a difference in how psychiatrists set out their opinions.

Assessing Uncertainty in Expert Judgments About Natural Resources

Treesearch

David A. Cleaves

1994-01-01

Judgments are necessary in natural resources management, but uncertainty about these judgments should be assessed. When all judgments are rejected in the absence of hard data, valuable professional experience and knowledge are not utilized fully. The objective of assessing uncertainty is to get the best representation of knowledge and its bounds. Uncertainty...

Throwing the baby out with the bath water: is it time for clinical judgment to supplement actuarial risk assessment?

PubMed

Abbott, Brian R

2011-01-01

The assessment of the potential for sexual violence is one of three prongs that must be met to satisfy the requirements for civil confinement of dangerous sex offenders in the 21 U.S. jurisdictions that have these laws. In a recent issue of The Journal, Sreenivasan et al. argued that, because of a host of methodological problems, actuarial risk assessment methods in general and the Static-99 and its progeny in particular are insufficient for accurate assessment of risk for dangerous sex offenders. They propose using a combination of clinical judgment with actuarial science as a solution. This analysis and review of Sreenivasan et al. reveals and corrects flaws in the arguments they employed to support their position and shows how the combination of actuarial science with clinical judgment is more error prone than the actuarial approach only, and cannot be forensically defended in court. Recommendations on reporting Static-99R data in expert testimony are provided, taking into account the limitations of the instrument.

Identifying psychophysiological indices of expert vs. novice performance in deadly force judgment and decision making

PubMed Central

Johnson, Robin R.; Stone, Bradly T.; Miranda, Carrie M.; Vila, Bryan; James, Lois; James, Stephen M.; Rubio, Roberto F.; Berka, Chris

2014-01-01

Objective: To demonstrate that psychophysiology may have applications for objective assessment of expertise development in deadly force judgment and decision making (DFJDM). Background: Modern training techniques focus on improving decision-making skills with participative assessment between trainees and subject matter experts primarily through subjective observation. Objective metrics need to be developed. The current proof of concept study explored the potential for psychophysiological metrics in deadly force judgment contexts. Method: Twenty-four participants (novice, expert) were recruited. All wore a wireless Electroencephalography (EEG) device to collect psychophysiological data during high-fidelity simulated deadly force judgment and decision-making simulations using a modified Glock firearm. Participants were exposed to 27 video scenarios, one-third of which would have justified use of deadly force. Pass/fail was determined by whether the participant used deadly force appropriately. Results: Experts had a significantly higher pass rate compared to novices (p < 0.05). Multiple metrics were shown to distinguish novices from experts. Hierarchical regression analyses indicate that psychophysiological variables are able to explain 72% of the variability in expert performance, but only 37% in novices. Discriminant function analysis (DFA) using psychophysiological metrics was able to discern between experts and novices with 72.6% accuracy. Conclusion: While limited due to small sample size, the results suggest that psychophysiology may be developed for use as an objective measure of expertise in DFDJM. Specifically, discriminant function measures may have the potential to objectively identify expert skill acquisition. Application: Psychophysiological metrics may create a performance model with the potential to optimize simulator-based DFJDM training. These performance models could be used for trainee feedback, and/or by the instructor to assess performance objectively. PMID:25100966

Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

PubMed

Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

2010-12-01

Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Game management, context effects, and calibration: the case of yellow cards in soccer.

PubMed

Unkelbach, Christian; Memmert, Daniel

2008-02-01

Referees in German first-league soccer games do not award as many yellow cards in the beginning of a game as should be statistically expected. One explanation for this effect is the concept of game management (Mascarenhas, Collins, & Mortimer, 2002). Alternatively, the consistency model (Haubensak, 1992) explains the effect as a necessity of the judgment situation: Referees need to calibrate a judgment scale, and, to preserve degrees of freedom in that scale, they need to avoid extreme category judgments in the beginning (i.e., yellow cards). Experiment 1 shows that referees who judge scenes in the context of a game award fewer yellow cards than referees who see the same scenes in random order. Experiment 2 shows the combined influence of game management (by explicitly providing information about the game situation) and calibration (early vs. late scenes in the time course of a game). Theoretical implications for expert refereeing and referee training are discussed.

Natural Hazard Susceptibility Assessment for Road Planning Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karlsson, Caroline S. J.; Kalantari, Zahra; Mörtberg, Ulla; Olofsson, Bo; Lyon, Steve W.

2017-11-01

Inadequate infrastructural networks can be detrimental to society if transport between locations becomes hindered or delayed, especially due to natural hazards which are difficult to control. Thus determining natural hazard susceptible areas and incorporating them in the initial planning process, may reduce infrastructural damages in the long run. The objective of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of expert judgments for assessing natural hazard susceptibility through a spatial multi-criteria analysis approach using hydrological, geological, and land use factors. To utilize spatial multi-criteria analysis for decision support, an analytic hierarchy process was adopted where expert judgments were evaluated individually and in an aggregated manner. The estimates of susceptible areas were then compared with the methods weighted linear combination using equal weights and factor interaction method. Results showed that inundation received the highest susceptibility. Using expert judgment showed to perform almost the same as equal weighting where the difference in susceptibility between the two for inundation was around 4%. The results also showed that downscaling could negatively affect the susceptibility assessment and be highly misleading. Susceptibility assessment through spatial multi-criteria analysis is useful for decision support in early road planning despite its limitation to the selection and use of decision rules and criteria. A natural hazard spatial multi-criteria analysis could be used to indicate areas where more investigations need to be undertaken from a natural hazard point of view, and to identify areas thought to have higher susceptibility along existing roads where mitigation measures could be targeted after in-situ investigations.

Natural Hazard Susceptibility Assessment for Road Planning Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis.

PubMed

Karlsson, Caroline S J; Kalantari, Zahra; Mörtberg, Ulla; Olofsson, Bo; Lyon, Steve W

2017-11-01

Inadequate infrastructural networks can be detrimental to society if transport between locations becomes hindered or delayed, especially due to natural hazards which are difficult to control. Thus determining natural hazard susceptible areas and incorporating them in the initial planning process, may reduce infrastructural damages in the long run. The objective of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of expert judgments for assessing natural hazard susceptibility through a spatial multi-criteria analysis approach using hydrological, geological, and land use factors. To utilize spatial multi-criteria analysis for decision support, an analytic hierarchy process was adopted where expert judgments were evaluated individually and in an aggregated manner. The estimates of susceptible areas were then compared with the methods weighted linear combination using equal weights and factor interaction method. Results showed that inundation received the highest susceptibility. Using expert judgment showed to perform almost the same as equal weighting where the difference in susceptibility between the two for inundation was around 4%. The results also showed that downscaling could negatively affect the susceptibility assessment and be highly misleading. Susceptibility assessment through spatial multi-criteria analysis is useful for decision support in early road planning despite its limitation to the selection and use of decision rules and criteria. A natural hazard spatial multi-criteria analysis could be used to indicate areas where more investigations need to be undertaken from a natural hazard point of view, and to identify areas thought to have higher susceptibility along existing roads where mitigation measures could be targeted after in-situ investigations.

International System and Foreign Policy Approaches: Implications for Conflict Modelling and Management

DTIC Science & Technology

tool for conflict management , preliminary version of which is the Computer Aided Conflict Information System. Using expert judgments to describe...1961. The combined model is more relevant during the crisis phase. The results have implications for conflict modelling. With respect to conflict ... management , there is an important implication. Since the organizational processes model may be more valid than an event interaction model, then conflict

Graphical function mapping as a new way to explore cause-and-effect chains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evans, Mary Anne

2016-01-01

Graphical function mapping provides a simple method for improving communication within interdisciplinary research teams and between scientists and nonscientists. This article introduces graphical function mapping using two examples and discusses its usefulness. Function mapping projects the outcome of one function into another to show the combined effect. Using this mathematical property in a simpler, even cartoon-like, graphical way allows the rapid combination of multiple information sources (models, empirical data, expert judgment, and guesses) in an intuitive visual to promote further discussion, scenario development, and clear communication.

Adaptation and Fallibility in Experts' Judgments of Novice Performers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larson, Jeffrey S.; Billeter, Darron M.

2017-01-01

Competition judges are often selected for their expertise, under the belief that a high level of performance expertise should enable accurate judgments of the competitors. Contrary to this assumption, we find evidence that expertise can reduce judgment accuracy. Adaptation level theory proposes that discriminatory capacity decreases with greater…

The Reliability Estimation for the Open Function of Cabin Door Affected by the Imprecise Judgment Corresponding to Distribution Hypothesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Z. P.; Yue, Z. F.; Liu, W.

2018-05-01

With the development of artificial intelligence, more and more reliability experts have noticed the roles of subjective information in the reliability design of complex system. Therefore, based on the certain numbers of experiment data and expert judgments, we have divided the reliability estimation based on distribution hypothesis into cognition process and reliability calculation. Consequently, for an illustration of this modification, we have taken the information fusion based on intuitional fuzzy belief functions as the diagnosis model of cognition process, and finished the reliability estimation for the open function of cabin door affected by the imprecise judgment corresponding to distribution hypothesis.

On Consistency Test Method of Expert Opinion in Ecological Security Assessment

PubMed Central

Wang, Lihong

2017-01-01

To reflect the initiative design and initiative of human security management and safety warning, ecological safety assessment is of great value. In the comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological security with the participation of experts, the expert’s individual judgment level, ability and the consistency of the expert’s overall opinion will have a very important influence on the evaluation result. This paper studies the consistency measure and consensus measure based on the multiplicative and additive consistency property of fuzzy preference relation (FPR). We firstly propose the optimization methods to obtain the optimal multiplicative consistent and additively consistent FPRs of individual and group judgments, respectively. Then, we put forward a consistency measure by computing the distance between the original individual judgment and the optimal individual estimation, along with a consensus measure by computing the distance between the original collective judgment and the optimal collective estimation. In the end, we make a case study on ecological security for five cities. Result shows that the optimal FPRs are helpful in measuring the consistency degree of individual judgment and the consensus degree of collective judgment. PMID:28869570

Consistency of Angoff-Based Standard-Setting Judgments: Are Item Judgments and Passing Scores Replicable across Different Panels of Experts?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tannenbaum, Richard J.; Kannan, Priya

2015-01-01

Angoff-based standard setting is widely used, especially for high-stakes licensure assessments. Nonetheless, some critics have claimed that the judgment task is too cognitively complex for panelists, whereas others have explicitly challenged the consistency in (replicability of) standard-setting outcomes. Evidence of consistency in item judgments…

Incorporating expert judgments in utility evaluation of bacteroidales qPCR assays for microbial source tracking in a drinking water source.

PubMed

Åström, Johan; Pettersson, Thomas J R; Reischer, Georg H; Norberg, Tommy; Hermansson, Malte

2015-02-03

Several assays for the detection of host-specific genetic markers of the order Bacteroidales have been developed and used for microbial source tracking (MST) in environmental waters. It is recognized that the source-sensitivity and source-specificity are unknown and variable when introducing these assays in new geographic regions, which reduces their reliability and use. A Bayesian approach was developed to incorporate expert judgments with regional assay sensitivity and specificity assessments in a utility evaluation of a human and a ruminant-specific qPCR assay for MST in a drinking water source. Water samples from Lake Rådasjön were analyzed for E. coli, intestinal enterococci and somatic coliphages through cultivation and for human (BacH) and ruminant-specific (BacR) markers through qPCR assays. Expert judgments were collected regarding the probability of human and ruminant fecal contamination based on fecal indicator organism data and subjective information. Using Bayes formula, the conditional probability of a true human or ruminant fecal contamination given the presence of BacH or BacR was determined stochastically from expert judgments and regional qPCR assay performance, using Beta distributions to represent uncertainties. A web-based computational tool was developed for the procedure, which provides a measure of confidence to findings of host-specific markers and demonstrates the information value from these assays.

Incorporating Expert Judgments in Utility Evaluation of Bacteroidales qPCR Assays for Microbial Source Tracking in a Drinking Water Source

PubMed Central

Åström, Johan; Pettersson, Thomas J. R.; Reischer, Georg H.; Norberg, Tommy; Hermansson, Malte

2017-01-01

Several assays for the detection of host-specific genetic markers of the order Bacteroidales have been developed and used for microbial source tracking (MST) in environmental waters. It is recognized that the source-sensitivity and source-specificity are unknown and variable when introducing these assays in new geographic regions, which reduces their reliability and use. A Bayesian approach was developed to incorporate expert judgments with regional assay sensitivity and specificity assessments in a utility evaluation of a human and a ruminant-specific qPCR assay for MST in a drinking water source. Water samples from Lake Rådasjön were analyzed for E. coli, intestinal enterococci and somatic coliphages through cultivation and for human (BacH) and ruminant-specific (BacR) markers through qPCR assays. Expert judgments were collected regarding the probability of human and ruminant fecal contamination based on fecal indicator organism data and subjective information. Using Bayes formula, the conditional probability of a true human or ruminant fecal contamination given the presence of BacH or BacR was determined stochastically from expert judgments and regional qPCR assay performance, using Beta distributions to represent uncertainties. A web-based computational tool was developed for the procedure, which provides a measure of confidence to findings of host-specific markers and demonstrates the information value from these assays. PMID:25545113

An expert elicitation process to project the frequency and magnitude of Florida manatee mortality events caused by red tide (Karenia brevis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Julien; Runge, Michael C.; Flewelling, Leanne J.; Deutsch, Charles J.; Landsberg, Jan H.

2017-11-20

Red tides (blooms of the harmful alga Karenia brevis) are one of the major sources of mortality for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), especially in southwest Florida. It has been hypothesized that the frequency and severity of red tides may increase in the future because of global climate change and other factors. To improve our ecological forecast for the effects of red tides on manatee population dynamics and long-term persistence, we conducted a formal expert judgment process to estimate probability distributions for the frequency and relative magnitude of red-tide-related manatee mortality (RTMM) events over a 100-year time horizon in three of the four regions recognized as manatee management units in Florida. This information was used to update a population viability analysis for the Florida manatee (the Core Biological Model). We convened a panel of 12 experts in manatee biology or red-tide ecology; the panel met to frame, conduct, and discuss the elicitation. Each expert provided a best estimate and plausible low and high values (bounding a confidence level of 80 percent) for each parameter in each of three regions (Northwest, Southwest, and Atlantic) of the subspecies’ range (excluding the Upper St. Johns River region) for two time periods (0−40 and 41−100 years from present). We fitted probability distributions for each parameter, time period, and expert by using these three elicited values. We aggregated the parameter estimates elicited from individual experts and fitted a parametric distribution to the aggregated results.Across regions, the experts expected the future frequency of RTMM events to be higher than historical levels, which is consistent with the hypothesis that global climate change (among other factors) may increase the frequency of red-tide blooms. The experts articulated considerable uncertainty, however, about the future frequency of RTMM events. The historical frequency of moderate and intense RTMM (combined) in the Southwest region was 0.35 (80-percent confidence interval [CI]: 0.21−0.52), whereas the forecast probability was 0.48 (80-percent CI: 0.30−0.64) over a 40-year projected time horizon. Moderate and intense RTMM events are expected to continue to be most frequent in the Southwest region, to increase in mean frequency in the Northwest region (historical frequency of moderate and intense RTMM events [combined] in the Northwest region was 0, whereas the forecast probability was 0.12 [80-percent CI: 0.02−0.39] over a 40-year projected time horizon) and in the Atlantic region (historical frequency of moderate and intense RTMM events [combined] in the Atlantic region was 0.05 [80-percent CI: 0.005–0.18], whereas the forecast probability was 0.11 [80-percent CI: 0.03−0.25] over a 40-year projected time horizon), and to remain absent from the Upper St. Johns River region. The impact of red-tide blooms on manatee mortality has been measured for the Southwest region but not for the Northwest and Atlantic regions, where such events have been rare. The expert panel predicted that the median magnitude of RTMM events in the Atlantic and Northwest regions will be much smaller than that in the Southwest; given the large uncertainties, however, they acknowledged the possibility that these events could be larger in their mortality impacts than in the Southwest region. By its nature, forecasting requires expert judgment because it is impossible to have empirical evidence about the future. The large uncertainties in parameter estimates over a 100-year timeframe are to be expected and may also indicate that the training provided to panelists successfully minimized one common pitfall of expert judgment, that of overconfidence. This study has provided useful and needed inputs to the Florida manatee population viability analysis associated with an important and recurrent source of mortality from harmful algal blooms.

The tacit dimension of clinical judgment.

PubMed Central

Goldman, G. M.

1990-01-01

Two distinct views of the nature of clinical judgment are identified and contrasted. The dominant view that clinical judgment is a fully explicit process is compared to the relatively neglected view that tacit knowledge plays a substantial role in the clinician's mental operations. The tacit dimension of medical thinking is explored at length. The discussion suggests severe limits when applying decision analysis, expert systems, and computer-aided cost-benefit review to medicine. The goals and practices of postgraduate medical education are also examined from this perspective, as are various other implications for the clinician. The paper concludes that it is valuable to explore the nature of medical thinking in order to improve clinical practice and education. Such explorations should, however, take cognizance of the often overlooked tacit dimension of clinical judgment. Possible constraints on the medical applicability of both formal expert systems and heavily didactic instructional programs are considered. PMID:2356625

Emerging Technologies for Environmental Remediation: Integrating Data and Judgment.

PubMed

Bates, Matthew E; Grieger, Khara D; Trump, Benjamin D; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Plourde, Kenton J; Linkov, Igor

2016-01-05

Emerging technologies present significant challenges to researchers, decision-makers, industry professionals, and other stakeholder groups due to the lack of quantitative risk, benefit, and cost data associated with their use. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) can support early decisions for emerging technologies when data is too sparse or uncertain for traditional risk assessment. It does this by integrating expert judgment with available quantitative and qualitative inputs across multiple criteria to provide relative technology scores. Here, an MCDA framework provides preliminary insights on the suitability of emerging technologies for environmental remediation by comparing nanotechnology and synthetic biology to conventional remediation methods. Subject matter experts provided judgments regarding the importance of criteria used in the evaluations and scored the technologies with respect to those criteria. The results indicate that synthetic biology may be preferred over nanotechnology and conventional methods for high expected benefits and low deployment costs but that conventional technology may be preferred over emerging technologies for reduced risks and development costs. In the absence of field data regarding the risks, benefits, and costs of emerging technologies, structuring evidence-based expert judgment through a weighted hierarchy of topical questions may be helpful to inform preliminary risk governance and guide emerging technology development and policy.

Monte Carlo simulation of expert judgments on human errors in chemical analysis--a case study of ICP-MS.

PubMed

Kuselman, Ilya; Pennecchi, Francesca; Epstein, Malka; Fajgelj, Ales; Ellison, Stephen L R

2014-12-01

Monte Carlo simulation of expert judgments on human errors in a chemical analysis was used for determination of distributions of the error quantification scores (scores of likelihood and severity, and scores of effectiveness of a laboratory quality system in prevention of the errors). The simulation was based on modeling of an expert behavior: confident, reasonably doubting and irresolute expert judgments were taken into account by means of different probability mass functions (pmfs). As a case study, 36 scenarios of human errors which may occur in elemental analysis of geological samples by ICP-MS were examined. Characteristics of the score distributions for three pmfs of an expert behavior were compared. Variability of the scores, as standard deviation of the simulated score values from the distribution mean, was used for assessment of the score robustness. A range of the score values, calculated directly from elicited data and simulated by a Monte Carlo method for different pmfs, was also discussed from the robustness point of view. It was shown that robustness of the scores, obtained in the case study, can be assessed as satisfactory for the quality risk management and improvement of a laboratory quality system against human errors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment at the Cosmetic Product Manufacturer by Expert Judgment Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vtorushina, A. N.; Larionova, E. V.; Mezenceva, I. L.; Nikonova, E. D.

2017-05-01

A case study was performed in a cosmetic product manufacturer. We have identified the main risk factors of occupational accidents and their causes. Risk of accidents is assessed by the expert judgment method. Event tree for the most probable accident is built and recommendations on improvement of occupational health and safety protection system at the cosmetic product manufacturer are developed. The results of this paper can be used to develop actions to improve the occupational safety and health system in the chemical industry.

An expert system for the quantification of fault rates in construction fall accidents.

PubMed

Talat Birgonul, M; Dikmen, Irem; Budayan, Cenk; Demirel, Tuncay

2016-01-01

Expert witness reports, prepared with the aim of quantifying fault rates among parties, play an important role in a court's final decision. However, conflicting fault rates assigned by different expert witness boards lead to iterative objections raised by the related parties. This unfavorable situation mainly originates due to the subjectivity of expert judgments and unavailability of objective information about the causes of accidents. As a solution to this shortcoming, an expert system based on a rule-based system was developed for the quantification of fault rates in construction fall accidents. The aim of developing DsSafe is decreasing the subjectivity inherent in expert witness reports. Eighty-four inspection reports prepared by the official and authorized inspectors were examined and root causes of construction fall accidents in Turkey were identified. Using this information, an evaluation form was designed and submitted to the experts. Experts were asked to evaluate the importance level of the factors that govern fall accidents and determine the fault rates under different scenarios. Based on expert judgments, a rule-based expert system was developed. The accuracy and reliability of DsSafe were tested with real data as obtained from finalized court cases. DsSafe gives satisfactory results.

Assessing future vent opening locations at the Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex: 2. Probability maps of the caldera for a future Plinian/sub-Plinian event with uncertainty quantification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadini, A.; Bevilacqua, A.; Neri, A.; Cioni, R.; Aspinall, W. P.; Bisson, M.; Isaia, R.; Mazzarini, F.; Valentine, G. A.; Vitale, S.; Baxter, P. J.; Bertagnini, A.; Cerminara, M.; de Michieli Vitturi, M.; Di Roberto, A.; Engwell, S.; Esposti Ongaro, T.; Flandoli, F.; Pistolesi, M.

2017-06-01

In this study, we combine reconstructions of volcanological data sets and inputs from a structured expert judgment to produce a first long-term probability map for vent opening location for the next Plinian or sub-Plinian eruption of Somma-Vesuvio. In the past, the volcano has exhibited significant spatial variability in vent location; this can exert a significant control on where hazards materialize (particularly of pyroclastic density currents). The new vent opening probability mapping has been performed through (i) development of spatial probability density maps with Gaussian kernel functions for different data sets and (ii) weighted linear combination of these spatial density maps. The epistemic uncertainties affecting these data sets were quantified explicitly with expert judgments and implemented following a doubly stochastic approach. Various elicitation pooling metrics and subgroupings of experts and target questions were tested to evaluate the robustness of outcomes. Our findings indicate that (a) Somma-Vesuvio vent opening probabilities are distributed inside the whole caldera, with a peak corresponding to the area of the present crater, but with more than 50% probability that the next vent could open elsewhere within the caldera; (b) there is a mean probability of about 30% that the next vent will open west of the present edifice; (c) there is a mean probability of about 9.5% that the next medium-large eruption will enlarge the present Somma-Vesuvio caldera, and (d) there is a nonnegligible probability (mean value of 6-10%) that the next Plinian or sub-Plinian eruption will have its initial vent opening outside the present Somma-Vesuvio caldera.

Mapping High Dimensional Sparse Customer Requirements into Product Configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Yao; Yang, Yu; Zhang, Hongshan

2017-10-01

Mapping customer requirements into product configurations is a crucial step for product design, while, customers express their needs ambiguously and locally due to the lack of domain knowledge. Thus the data mining process of customer requirements might result in fragmental information with high dimensional sparsity, leading the mapping procedure risk uncertainty and complexity. The Expert Judgment is widely applied against that background since there is no formal requirements for systematic or structural data. However, there are concerns on the repeatability and bias for Expert Judgment. In this study, an integrated method by adjusted Local Linear Embedding (LLE) and Naïve Bayes (NB) classifier is proposed to map high dimensional sparse customer requirements to product configurations. The integrated method adjusts classical LLE to preprocess high dimensional sparse dataset to satisfy the prerequisite of NB for classifying different customer requirements to corresponding product configurations. Compared with Expert Judgment, the adjusted LLE with NB performs much better in a real-world Tablet PC design case both in accuracy and robustness.

Attitudes towards evaluation of psychiatric disability claims: a survey of Swiss stakeholders.

PubMed

Schandelmaier, Stefan; Leibold, Andrea; Fischer, Katrin; Mager, Ralph; Hoffmann-Richter, Ulrike; Bachmann, Monica Susanne; Kedzia, Sarah; Busse, Jason Walter; Guyatt, Gordon Henry; Jeger, Joerg; Marelli, Renato; De Boer, Wout Ernst Lodewijk; Kunz, Regina

2015-01-01

In Switzerland, evaluation of work capacity in individuals with mental disorders has come under criticism. We surveyed stakeholders about their concerns and expectations of the current claim process. We conducted a nationwide online survey among five stakeholder groups. We asked 37 questions addressing the claim process and the evaluation of work capacity, the maximum acceptable disagreement in judgments on work capacity, and its documentation. Response rate among 704 stakeholders (95 plaintiff lawyers, 285 treating psychiatrists, 129 expert psychiatrists evaluating work capacity, 64 social judges, 131 insurers) varied between 71% and 29%. Of the lawyers, 92% were dissatisfied with the current claim process, as were psychiatrists (73%) and experts (64%), whereas the majority of judges (72%) and insurers (81%) were satisfied. Stakeholders agreed in their concerns, such as the lack of a transparent relationship between the experts' findings and their conclusions regarding work capacity, medical evaluations inappropriately addressing legal issues, and the experts' delay in finalising the report. Findings mirror the characteristics that stakeholders consider important for an optimal work capacity evaluation. For a scenario where two experts evaluate the same claimant, stakeholders considered an inter-rater difference of 10%‒20% in work capacity at maximum acceptable. Plaintiff lawyers, treating psychiatrists and experts perceive major problems in work capacity evaluation of psychiatric claims whereas judges and insurers see the process more positively. Efforts to improve the process should include clarifying the basis on which judgments are made, restricting judgments to areas of expertise, and ensuring prompt submission of evaluations.

Expert judgment and uncertainty regarding the protection of imperiled species.

PubMed

Heeren, Alexander; Karns, Gabriel; Bruskotter, Jeremy; Toman, Eric; Wilson, Robyn; Szarek, Harmony

2017-06-01

Decisions concerning the appropriate listing status of species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) can be controversial even among conservationists. These decisions may determine whether a species persists in the near term and have long-lasting social and political ramifications. Given the ESA's mandate that such decisions be based on the best available science, it is important to examine what factors contribute to experts' judgments concerning the listing of species. We examined how a variety of factors (such as risk perception, value orientations, and norms) influenced experts' judgments concerning the appropriate listing status of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Experts were invited to complete an online survey examining their perceptions of the threats grizzly bears face and their listing recommendation. Although experts' assessments of the threats to this species were strongly correlated with their recommendations for listing status, this relationship did not exist when other cognitive factors were included in the model. Specifically, values related to human use of wildlife and norms (i.e., a respondent's expectation of peers' assessments) were most influential in listing status recommendations. These results suggest that experts' decisions about listing, like all human decisions, are subject to the use of heuristics (i.e., decision shortcuts). An understanding of how heuristics and related biases affect decisions under uncertainty can help inform decision making about threatened and endangered species and may be useful in designing effective processes for protection of imperiled species. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Apprentices' Learning of Occupationally Informed Practical Judgment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chan, Selena

2015-01-01

Learning to become trade workers requires developing the ability to make practical workplace-based judgments, often centred around difficult to articulate trade "know-how" or tacit knowledge. Apprentices learn discipline specific ways of doing, thinking, feeling and being from experts, peers and through interactions with occupational…

Knowing Who Knows: Laypersons' Capabilities to Judge Experts' Pertinence for Science Topics.

PubMed

Bromme, Rainer; Thomm, Eva

2016-01-01

Because modern societies are built on elaborate divisions of cognitive labor, individuals remain laypersons in most knowledge domains. Hence, they have to rely on others' expertise when deciding on many science-related issues in private and public life. Even children already locate and discern expertise in the minds of others (e.g., Danovitch & Keil, 2004). This study examines how far university students accurately judge experts' pertinence for science topics even when they lack proficient knowledge of the domain. Participants judged the pertinence of experts from diverse disciplines based on the experts' assumed contributions to texts adapted from original articles from Science and Nature. Subjective pertinence judgments were calibrated by comparing them with bibliometrics of the original articles. Furthermore, participants' general science knowledge was controlled. Results showed that participants made well-calibrated pertinence judgments regardless of their level of general science knowledge. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Assessing social and economic effects of perceived risk: Workshop summary: Draft: BWIP Repository Project. [Basalt Waste Isolation Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nealey, S.M.; Liebow, E.B.

1988-03-01

The US Department of Energy sponsored a one-day workshop to discuss the complex dimensions of risk judgment formation and the assessment of social and economic effects of risk perceptions related to the permanent underground storage of highly radioactive waste from commercial nuclear power plants. Affected parties have publicly expressed concerns about potentially significant risk-related effects of this approach to waste management. A selective review of relevant literature in psychology, decision analysis, economics, sociology, and anthropology was completed, along with an examination of decision analysis techniques that might assist in developing suitable responses to public risk-related concerns. The workshop was organizedmore » as a forum in which a set of distinguished experts could exchange ideas and observations about the problems of characterizing the effects of risk judgments. Out of the exchange emerged the issues or themes of problems with probabilistic risk assessment techniques are evident; differences exist in the way experts and laypersons view risk, and this leads to higher levels of public concern than experts feel are justified; experts, risk managers, and decision-makers sometimes err in assessing risk and in dealing with the public; credibility and trust are important contributing factors in the formation of risk judgments; social and economic consequences of perceived risk should be properly anticipated; improvements can be made in informing the public about risk; the role of the public in risk assessment, risk management and decisions about risk should be reconsidered; and mitigation and compensation are central to resolving conflicts arising from divergent risk judgments. 1 tab.« less

A Bayesian network modeling approach to forecasting the 21st century worldwide status of polar bears

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amstrup, Steven C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Douglas, David C.

To inform the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service decision, whether or not to list polar bears as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), we projected the status of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) for decades centered on future years 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2095. We defined four ecoregions based on current and projected sea ice conditions: seasonal ice, Canadian Archipelago, polar basin divergent, and polar basin convergent ecoregions. We incorporated general circulation model projections of future sea ice into a Bayesian network (BN) model structured around the factors considered in ESA decisions. This first-generation BN model combined empirical data, interpretations of data, and professional judgments of one polar bear expert into a probabilistic framework that identifies causal links between environmental stressors and polar bear responses. We provide guidance regarding steps necessary to refine the model, including adding inputs from other experts. The BN model projected extirpation of polar bears from the seasonal ice and polar basin divergent ecoregions, where ≈2/3 of the world's polar bears currently occur, by mid century. Projections were less dire in other ecoregions. Decline in ice habitat was the overriding factor driving the model outcomes. Although this is a first-generation model, the dependence of polar bears on sea ice is universally accepted, and the observed sea ice decline is faster than models suggest. Therefore, incorporating judgments of multiple experts in a final model is not expected to fundamentally alter the outlook for polar bears described here.

An Experimental Study of the Internal Consistency of Judgments Made in Bookmark Standard Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clauser, Brian E.; Baldwin, Peter; Margolis, Melissa J.; Mee, Janet; Winward, Marcia

2017-01-01

Validating performance standards is challenging and complex. Because of the difficulties associated with collecting evidence related to external criteria, validity arguments rely heavily on evidence related to internal criteria--especially evidence that expert judgments are internally consistent. Given its importance, it is somewhat surprising…

A Bayesian approach for calibrating probability judgments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firmino, Paulo Renato A.; Santana, Nielson A.

2012-10-01

Eliciting experts' opinions has been one of the main alternatives for addressing paucity of data. In the vanguard of this area is the development of calibration models (CMs). CMs are models dedicated to overcome miscalibration, i.e. judgment biases reflecting deficient strategies of reasoning adopted by the expert when inferring about an unknown. One of the main challenges of CMs is to determine how and when to intervene against miscalibration, in order to enhance the tradeoff between costs (time spent with calibration processes) and accuracy of the resulting models. The current paper dedicates special attention to this issue by presenting a dynamic Bayesian framework for monitoring, diagnosing, and handling miscalibration patterns. The framework is based on Beta-, Uniform, or Triangular-Bernoulli models and classes of judgmental calibration theories. Issues regarding the usefulness of the proposed framework are discussed and illustrated via simulation studies.

Historical antecedents to the philosophy of Paul Feyerabend.

PubMed

Munévar, Gonzalo

2016-06-01

Paul Feyerabend has been considered a very radical philosopher of science for proposing that we may advance hypotheses contrary to well-confirmed experimental results, that observations make theoretical assumptions, that all methodological rules have exceptions, that ordinary citizens may challenge the judgment of experts, and that human happiness should be a key value for science. As radical as these theses may sound, they all have historical antecedents. In defending the Copernican view, Galileo exemplified the first two; Mill, Aristotle and Machiavelli all argued for pluralism; Aristotle gave commonsense reasons for why ordinary citizens may be able to judge the work of experts; and a combination of Plato's and Aristotle's views can offer strong support for the connection between science and happiness. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive Sampling using Support Vector Machines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

D. Mandelli; C. Smith

2012-11-01

Reliability/safety analysis of stochastic dynamic systems (e.g., nuclear power plants, airplanes, chemical plants) is currently performed through a combination of Event-Tress and Fault-Trees. However, these conventional methods suffer from certain drawbacks: • Timing of events is not explicitly modeled • Ordering of events is preset by the analyst • The modeling of complex accident scenarios is driven by expert-judgment For these reasons, there is currently an increasing interest into the development of dynamic PRA methodologies since they can be used to address the deficiencies of conventional methods listed above.

Clinical judgment, moral anxiety, and the limits of psychiatry.

PubMed

Murray, Bradley

2017-12-01

It is common for clinicians working in psychiatry and related clinical disciplines to be called on to make diagnostic clinical judgments concerning moral anxiety, which is a kind of anxiety that is closely bound up with decisions individuals face as moral agents. To make such a judgment, it is necessary to make a moral judgment. Although it has been common to acknowledge that there are ways in which moral and clinical judgment interact, this type of interaction has remained unacknowledged. This raises questions as to the nature and limits of psychiatry-particularly concerning the extent to which psychiatric discourse ought to incorporate moral discourse, and the role of the clinician as an expert in identifying problematic anxiety.

Can cancer researchers accurately judge whether preclinical reports will reproduce?

PubMed Central

Mandel, David R.; Kimmelman, Jonathan

2017-01-01

There is vigorous debate about the reproducibility of research findings in cancer biology. Whether scientists can accurately assess which experiments will reproduce original findings is important to determining the pace at which science self-corrects. We collected forecasts from basic and preclinical cancer researchers on the first 6 replication studies conducted by the Reproducibility Project: Cancer Biology (RP:CB) to assess the accuracy of expert judgments on specific replication outcomes. On average, researchers forecasted a 75% probability of replicating the statistical significance and a 50% probability of replicating the effect size, yet none of these studies successfully replicated on either criterion (for the 5 studies with results reported). Accuracy was related to expertise: experts with higher h-indices were more accurate, whereas experts with more topic-specific expertise were less accurate. Our findings suggest that experts, especially those with specialized knowledge, were overconfident about the RP:CB replicating individual experiments within published reports; researcher optimism likely reflects a combination of overestimating the validity of original studies and underestimating the difficulties of repeating their methodologies. PMID:28662052

Expert judgments about RD&D and the future of nuclear energy.

PubMed

Anadón, Laura D; Bosetti, Valentina; Bunn, Matthew; Catenacci, Michela; Lee, Audrey

2012-11-06

Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. We used a novel elicitation approach which combined individual and group elicitation. With no change from current RD&D funding levels, experts on average expected current (Gen. III/III+) designs to be somewhat more expensive in 2030 than they were in 2010, and they expected the next generation of designs (Gen. IV) to be more expensive still as of 2030. Projected costs of proposed small modular reactors (SMRs) were similar to those of Gen. IV systems. The experts almost unanimously recommended large increases in government support for nuclear RD&D (generally 2-3 times current spending). The majority expected that such RD&D would have only a modest effect on cost, but would improve performance in other areas, such as safety, waste management, and uranium resource utilization. The U.S. and E.U. experts were in relative agreement regarding how government RD&D funds should be allocated, placing particular focus on very high temperature reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, fuels and materials, and fuel cycle technologies.

Judgments of Physics Problem Difficulty among Experts and Novices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fakcharoenphol, Witat; Morphew, Jason W.; Mestre, José P.

2015-01-01

Students' ability to effectively study for an exam, or to manage their time during an exam, is related to their metacognitive capacity. Prior research has demonstrated the effective use of metacognitive strategies during learning and retrieval is related to content expertise. Students also make judgments of their own learning and of problem…

Perceptions of Teacher Characteristics and Student Judgments of Teacher Effectiveness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Freeman, Harvey R.

1988-01-01

Uses a seven point Likert scale to examine the relationship between perceived teacher attractiveness, expertness, and trustworthiness and student judgment of teacher effectiveness. Correlations suggest that a more accurate view of teaching may be as an instance of social influence process. Urges further research to identify those cues that infer…

Integrating expert judgment in veterinary epidemiology: example guidance for disease freedom surveillance.

PubMed

Gustafson, L L; Gustafson, D H; Antognoli, M C; Remmenga, M D

2013-04-01

Expert opinions supplement empirical data in many epidemiologic assessments. For veterinary disease freedom surveillance, where the geographic scope of concern is often broad, populations subject to change, decisions eminent and empirical data, expert opinion can be a critical component of the decision making process. However, opinion is by definition subjective and the manner in which opinion is sought can impact the quality and reliability of estimates. Group interaction can hinder or improve the estimation process, depending on its facilitation. Further, whether and how validation is conducted can limit or increase acceptance of the resulting model. While the utility of expert opinion is widely recognized in many fields, and the impact of its use or misuse implicit, standards for application to veterinary assessments are not readily available. This paper aims to foster discussion on this influential component of epidemiology, with disease freedom application as a focus. Benefits and concerns attributed to expert judgment and guidelines for its structured elicitation are described, borrowing insights from its long history of use in decision science fields and examples from recent veterinary assessments. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Comparison of Trained Clinician Ratings with Expert Ratings of Aspiration on Videofluoroscopic Images from a Randomized Clinical Trial

PubMed Central

Hind, Jacqueline A.; Gensler, Gary; Brandt, Diane K.; Miller Gardner, Patricia J.; Blumenthal, Loreen; Gramigna, Gary D.; Kosek, Steven; Lundy, Donna; McGarvey-Toler, Susan; Rockafellow, Susan; Sullivan, Paula A.; Villa, Marybell; Gill, Gary D.; Lindblad, Anne S.; Logemann, Jeri A.; Robbins, JoAnne

2009-01-01

Accurate detection and classification of aspiration is a critical component of videofluoroscopic swallowing evaluation, the most commonly utilized instrumental method for dysphagia diagnosis and treatment. Currently published literature indicates that inter-judge reliability for the identification of aspiration ranges from poor to fairly good depending on the amount of training provided to clinicians. The majority of extant studies compared judgments among clinicians. No studies included judgments made during the use of a postural compensatory strategy. The purpose of this study was to examine the accuracy of judgments made by speech-language pathologists (SLPs) practicing in hospitals compared with unblinded expert judges when identifying aspiration and using the 8-point Penetration/Aspiration Scale. Clinicians received extensive training for the detection of aspiration and minimal training on use of the Penetration/Aspiration Scale. Videofluoroscopic data were collected from 669 patients as part of a large, randomized clinical trial and include judgments of 10,200 swallows made by 76 clinicians from 44 hospitals in 11 states. Judgments were made on swallows during use of dysphagia compensatory strategies: chin down posture with thin-liquids and thickened liquids (nectar-thick and honey-thick consistencies) in a head neutral posture. The subject population included patients with Parkinson’s disease and/or dementia. Kappa statistics indicate high accuracy for all interventions by SLPs for identification of aspiration (all К > .86) and variable accuracy (range 69%–76%) using the Penetration/Aspiration Scale when compared to expert judges. It is concluded that while the accuracy of identifying the presence of aspiration by SLPs is excellent, more extensive training and/or image enhancement is recommended for precise use of the Penetration/Aspiration Scale. PMID:18953607

Art Expertise and the Processing of Titled Abstract Art.

PubMed

Mullennix, John W; Robinet, Julien

2018-04-01

The effect of art expertise on viewers' processing of titled visual artwork was examined. The study extended the research of Leder, Carbon, and Ripsas by explicitly selecting art novices and art experts. The study was designed to test assumptions about how expertise modulates context in the form of titles for artworks. Viewers rated a set of abstract paintings for liking and understanding. The type of title accompanying the artwork (descriptive or elaborative) was manipulated. Viewers were allotted as much time as they wished to view each artwork. For judgments of liking, novices and experts both liked artworks with elaborative titles better, with overall rated liking similar for both groups. For judgments of understanding, type of title had no effect on ratings for both novices and experts. However, experts' rated understanding was higher than novices, with experts making their decisions faster than novices. An analysis of viewers' art expertise revealed that expertise was correlated with understanding, but not liking. Overall, the results suggest that both novices and experts integrate title with visual image in similar manner. However, expertise differentially affected liking and understanding. The results differ from those obtained by Leder et al. The differences between studies are discussed.

When science becomes too easy: Science popularization inclines laypeople to underrate their dependence on experts.

PubMed

Scharrer, Lisa; Rupieper, Yvonne; Stadtler, Marc; Bromme, Rainer

2017-11-01

Science popularization fulfills the important task of making scientific knowledge understandable and accessible for the lay public. However, the simplification of information required to achieve this accessibility may lead to the risk of audiences relying overly strongly on their own epistemic capabilities when making judgments about scientific claims. Moreover, they may underestimate how the division of cognitive labor makes them dependent on experts. This article reports an empirical study demonstrating that this "easiness effect of science popularization" occurs when laypeople read authentic popularized science depictions. After reading popularized articles addressed to a lay audience, laypeople agreed more with the knowledge claims they contained and were more confident in their claim judgments than after reading articles addressed to expert audiences. Implications for communicating scientific knowledge to the general public are discussed.

On assessing the quality of physicians' clinical judgment: the search for outcome variables.

PubMed

Wainer, Howard; Mee, Janet

2004-12-01

A primary question that must be resolved in the development of tasks to assess the quality of physicians' clinical judgment is, "What is the outcome variable?" One natural choice would seem to be the correctness of the clinical decision. In this article, we use data on the diagnosis of urinary tract infections among young girls to illustrate why, in many clinical situations, this is not a useful variable. We propose instead a judgment weighted by the relative costs of an error. This variable has the disadvantage of requiring expert judgment for scoring, but the advantage of measuring the construct of interest.

A new machine classification method applied to human peripheral blood leukocytes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rorvig, Mark E.; Fitzpatrick, Steven J.; Vitthal, Sanjay; Ladoulis, Charles T.

1994-01-01

Human beings judge images by complex mental processes, whereas computing machines extract features. By reducing scaled human judgments and machine extracted features to a common metric space and fitting them by regression, the judgments of human experts rendered on a sample of images may be imposed on an image population to provide automatic classification.

Psychometric Analysis of a Measure of Socio-Emotional Development in Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sandell, Rolf; Kimber, Birgitta; Andersson, Marie; Elg, Mattias; Fharm, Linus; Gustafsson, Niklas; Soderbaum, Wendela

2012-01-01

This is a psychometric analysis of an instrument to assess the socio-emotional development of school students, How I Feel (HIF), developed as a situational judgment test, with scoring based on expert judgments. The HIF test was administered in grades 4-9, 1999-2005. Internal consistency, retest reliability, and year-to-year stability were…

Delphi in Criminal Justice Policy: A Case Study on Judgmental Forecasting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loyens, Kim; Maesschalck, Jeroen; Bouckaert, Geert

2011-01-01

This article provides an in-depth case study analysis of a pilot project organized by the section "Strategic Analysis" of the Belgian Federal Police. Using the Delphi method, which is a judgmental forecasting technique, a panel of experts was questioned about future developments of crime, based on their expertise in criminal or social…

Development and Construct Validation of a Situational Judgment Test of Strategic Knowledge of Classroom Management in Elementary Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gold, Bernadette; Holodynski, Manfred

2015-01-01

The current study describes the development and construct validation of a situational judgment test for assessing the strategic knowledge of classroom management in elementary schools. Classroom scenarios and accompanying courses of action were constructed, of which 17 experts confirmed the content validity. A pilot study and a cross-validation…

Group elicitations yield more consistent, yet more uncertain experts in understanding risks to ecosystem services in New Zealand bays

PubMed Central

Sinner, Jim; Ellis, Joanne; Kandlikar, Milind; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Satterfield, Terre; Chan, Kai

2017-01-01

The elicitation of expert judgment is an important tool for assessment of risks and impacts in environmental management contexts, and especially important as decision-makers face novel challenges where prior empirical research is lacking or insufficient. Evidence-driven elicitation approaches typically involve techniques to derive more accurate probability distributions under fairly specific contexts. Experts are, however, prone to overconfidence in their judgements. Group elicitations with diverse experts can reduce expert overconfidence by allowing cross-examination and reassessment of prior judgements, but groups are also prone to uncritical “groupthink” errors. When the problem context is underspecified the probability that experts commit groupthink errors may increase. This study addresses how structured workshops affect expert variability among and certainty within responses in a New Zealand case study. We find that experts’ risk estimates before and after a workshop differ, and that group elicitations provided greater consistency of estimates, yet also greater uncertainty among experts, when addressing prominent impacts to four different ecosystem services in coastal New Zealand. After group workshops, experts provided more consistent ranking of risks and more consistent best estimates of impact through increased clarity in terminology and dampening of extreme positions, yet probability distributions for impacts widened. The results from this case study suggest that group elicitations have favorable consequences for the quality and uncertainty of risk judgments within and across experts, making group elicitation techniques invaluable tools in contexts of limited data. PMID:28767694

A plea for judgment.

PubMed

Davis, Michael

2012-12-01

Judgment is central to engineering, medicine, the sciences and many other practical activities. For example, one who otherwise knows what engineers know but lacks "engineering judgment" may be an expert of sorts, a handy resource much like a reference book or database, but cannot be a competent engineer. Though often overlooked or at least passed over in silence, the central place of judgment in engineering, the sciences, and the like should be obvious once pointed out. It is important here because it helps to explain where ethics fits into these disciplines. There is no good engineering, no good science, and so on without good judgment and no good judgment in these disciplines without ethics. Doing even a minimally decent job of teaching one of these disciplines necessarily includes teaching its ethics; teaching the ethics is teaching the discipline (or at least a large part of it).

Development of an antibiotic spectrum score based on veterans affairs culture and susceptibility data for the purpose of measuring antibiotic de-escalation: a modified Delphi approach.

PubMed

Madaras-Kelly, Karl; Jones, Makoto; Remington, Richard; Hill, Nicole; Huttner, Benedikt; Samore, Matthew

2014-09-01

Development of a numerical score to measure the microbial spectrum of antibiotic regimens (spectrum score) and method to identify antibiotic de-escalation events based on application of the score. Web-based modified Delphi method. Physician and pharmacist antimicrobial stewards practicing in the United States recruited through infectious diseases-focused listservs. Three Delphi rounds investigated: organisms and antibiotics to include in the spectrum score, operationalization of rules for the score, and de-escalation measurement. A 4-point ordinal scale was used to score antibiotic susceptibility for organism-antibiotic domain pairs. Antibiotic regimen scores, which represented combined activity of antibiotics in a regimen across all organism domains, were used to compare antibiotic spectrum administered early (day 2) and later (day 4) in therapy. Changes in spectrum score were calculated and compared with Delphi participants' judgments on de-escalation with 20 antibiotic regimen vignettes and with non-Delphi steward judgments on de-escalation of 300 pneumonia regimen vignettes. Method sensitivity and specificity to predict expert de-escalation status were calculated. Twenty-four participants completed all Delphi rounds. Expert support for concepts utilized in metric development was identified. For vignettes presented in the Delphi, the sign of change in score correctly classified de-escalation in all vignettes except those involving substitution of oral antibiotics. The sensitivity and specificity of the method to identify de-escalation events as judged by non-Delphi stewards were 86.3% and 96.0%, respectively. Identification of de-escalation events based on an algorithm that measures microbial spectrum of antibiotic regimens generally agreed with steward judgments of de-escalation status.

Judging Acting Ability: The Transition from Novice to Expert.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Myford, Carol M.

The aesthetic judgments of experts (casting directors and high school drama teachers), theater buffs, and novices were compared as they rated high school students' videotaped performances of Shakespearean monologues. It was hypothesized that theater buffs would represent an intermediate stage on the path to developing expertise in judging acting…

Judging Drawing Abilities of Hong Kong Chinese Gifted Students: Could Nonexperts Make Expert-Like Judgments?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chan, David W.; Chan, Lai-kwan; Chau, Amethyst

2009-01-01

Two drawings based on tasks originally used in Clark's Drawing Abilities Test from each of 297 Chinese students were first evaluated independently by two Chinese visual artists as below average, average, and above average in drawing abilities. Based on these judges' verbalization to make explicit their implicit criteria for judgments, a set of…

Using expert judgments to explore robust alternatives for forest management under climate change.

PubMed

McDaniels, Timothy; Mills, Tamsin; Gregory, Robin; Ohlson, Dan

2012-12-01

We develop and apply a judgment-based approach to selecting robust alternatives, which are defined here as reasonably likely to achieve objectives, over a range of uncertainties. The intent is to develop an approach that is more practical in terms of data and analysis requirements than current approaches, informed by the literature and experience with probability elicitation and judgmental forecasting. The context involves decisions about managing forest lands that have been severely affected by mountain pine beetles in British Columbia, a pest infestation that is climate-exacerbated. A forest management decision was developed as the basis for the context, objectives, and alternatives for land management actions, to frame and condition the judgments. A wide range of climate forecasts, taken to represent the 10-90% levels on cumulative distributions for future climate, were developed to condition judgments. An elicitation instrument was developed, tested, and revised to serve as the basis for eliciting probabilistic three-point distributions regarding the performance of selected alternatives, over a set of relevant objectives, in the short and long term. The elicitations were conducted in a workshop comprising 14 regional forest management specialists. We employed the concept of stochastic dominance to help identify robust alternatives. We used extensive sensitivity analysis to explore the patterns in the judgments, and also considered the preferred alternatives for each individual expert. The results show that two alternatives that are more flexible than the current policies are judged more likely to perform better than the current alternatives on average in terms of stochastic dominance. The results suggest judgmental approaches to robust decision making deserve greater attention and testing. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Clinical Ethics Consultants are not “Ethics” Experts—But They do Have Expertise 1

PubMed Central

Rasmussen, Lisa M.

2016-01-01

The attempt to critique the profession of clinical ethics consultation by establishing the impossibility of ethics expertise has been a red herring. Decisions made in clinical ethics cases are almost never based purely on moral judgments. Instead, they are all-things-considered judgments that involve determining how to balance other values as well. A standard of justified decision-making in this context would enable us to identify experts who could achieve these standards more often than others, and thus provide a basis for expertise in clinical ethics consultation. This expertise relies in part on what Richard Zaner calls the “expert knowledge of ethical phenomena” (1988, 8). PMID:27302970

76 FR 55673 - Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-08

... exercise was designed to elicit judgments from experts in a workshop setting, regarding climate change... influence under both current and future climate change scenarios. The experts also discussed the high impact... in the diagram, and the potential for threshold changes. These reports show how climate-sensitive...

Evaluating musical instruments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Campbell, D. Murray

Scientific measurements of sound generation and radiation by musical instruments are surprisingly hard to correlate with the subtle and complex judgments of instrumental quality made by expert musicians.

Revealing and acknowledging value judgments in health technology assessment.

PubMed

Hofmann, Bjørn; Cleemput, Irina; Bond, Kenneth; Krones, Tanja; Droste, Sigrid; Sacchini, Dario; Oortwijn, Wija

2014-12-01

Although value issues are increasingly addressed in health technology assessment (HTA) reports, HTA is still seen as a scientific endeavor and sometimes contrasted with value judgments, which are considered arbitrary and unscientific. This article aims at illustrating how numerous value judgments are at play in the HTA process, and why it is important to acknowledge and address value judgments. A panel of experts involved in HTA, including ethicists, scrutinized the HTA process with regard to implicit value judgments. It was analyzed whether these value judgments undermine the accountability of HTA results. The final results were obtained after several rounds of deliberation. Value judgments are identified before the assessment when identifying and selecting health technologies to assess, and as part of assessment. They are at play in the processes of deciding on how to select, frame, present, summarize or synthesize information in systematic reviews. Also, in economic analysis, value judgments are ubiquitous. Addressing the ethical, legal, and social issues of a given health technology involves moral, legal, and social value judgments by definition. So do the appraisal and the decision-making process. HTA by and large is a process of value judgments. However, the preponderance of value judgments does not render HTA biased or flawed. On the contrary they are basic elements of the HTA process. Acknowledging and explicitly addressing value judgments may improve the accountability of HTA.

A Delphi Investigation into Future Trends in E-Learning in Israel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aharony, Noa; Bronstein, Jenny

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the views and opinions of e-learning experts regarding future trends in the e-learning arena. The Delphi technique was chosen as a method of study. This technique is an efficient and effective group communication process designed to systematically elicit judgments from experts in their selected area of…

The Effect of Rating Unfamiliar Items on Angoff Passing Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clauser, Jerome C.; Hambleton, Ronald K.; Baldwin, Peter

2017-01-01

The Angoff standard setting method relies on content experts to review exam items and make judgments about the performance of the minimally proficient examinee. Unfortunately, at times content experts may have gaps in their understanding of specific exam content. These gaps are particularly likely to occur when the content domain is broad and/or…

Visual Analysis of Multiple Baseline across Participants Graphs when Change Is Delayed

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lieberman, Rebecca G.; Yoder, Paul J.; Reichow, Brian; Wolery, Mark

2010-01-01

A within-subjects group experimental design was used to test whether three manipulated characteristics of multiple baseline across participants (MBL-P) data showing at least a month delayed change in slope affected experts' inference of a functional relation and agreement on this judgment. Thirty-six experts completed a survey composed of 16 MBL-P…

Cognitive Task Analysis for Instruction in Single-Injection Ultrasound Guided-Regional Anesthesia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gucev, Gligor V.

2012-01-01

Cognitive task analysis (CTA) is methodology for eliciting knowledge from subject matter experts. CTA has been used to capture the cognitive processes, decision-making, and judgments that underlie expert behaviors. A review of the literature revealed that CTA has not yet been used to capture the knowledge required to perform ultrasound guided…

The Two Faces of Wisdom: Wisdom as a General Theory of Knowledge and Judgment about Excellence in Mind and Virtue vs. Wisdom as Everyday Realization in People and Products

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baltesa, Paul B.; Kunzmann, Ute

2004-01-01

There are several legitimate ways of conceptualizing and studying wisdom. One is largely informed by Western philosophy and treats wisdom as an analytic theory of expert knowledge, judgment, and advice about difficult and uncertain matters of life. Another is more consistent with Asian philosophical nonsecularized traditions and treats wisdom as…

Is Beauty in the Eyes of the Beholder? Aesthetic Quality versus Technical Skill in Movement Evaluation of Tai Chi.

PubMed

Zamparo, Paola; Zorzi, Elena; Marcantoni, Sara; Cesari, Paola

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare experts to naïve practitioners in rating the beauty and the technical quality of a Tai Chi sequence observed in video-clips (of high and middle level performances). Our hypothesis are: i) movement evaluation will correlate with the level of skill expressed in the kinematics of the observed action but ii) only experts will be able to unravel the technical component from the aesthetic component of the observed action. The judgments delivered indicate that both expert and non-expert observers are able to discern a good from a mediocre performance; however, as expected, only experts discriminate the technical from the aesthetic component of the action evaluated and do this independently of the level of skill shown by the model (high or middle level performances). Furthermore, the judgments delivered were strongly related to the kinematic variables measured in the observed model, indicating that observers rely on specific movement kinematics (e.g. movement amplitude, jerk and duration) for action evaluation. These results provide evidence of the complementary functional role of visual and motor action representation in movement evaluation and underline the role of expertise in judging the aesthetic quality of movements.

Is Beauty in the Eyes of the Beholder? Aesthetic Quality versus Technical Skill in Movement Evaluation of Tai Chi

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare experts to naïve practitioners in rating the beauty and the technical quality of a Tai Chi sequence observed in video-clips (of high and middle level performances). Our hypothesis are: i) movement evaluation will correlate with the level of skill expressed in the kinematics of the observed action but ii) only experts will be able to unravel the technical component from the aesthetic component of the observed action. The judgments delivered indicate that both expert and non-expert observers are able to discern a good from a mediocre performance; however, as expected, only experts discriminate the technical from the aesthetic component of the action evaluated and do this independently of the level of skill shown by the model (high or middle level performances). Furthermore, the judgments delivered were strongly related to the kinematic variables measured in the observed model, indicating that observers rely on specific movement kinematics (e.g. movement amplitude, jerk and duration) for action evaluation. These results provide evidence of the complementary functional role of visual and motor action representation in movement evaluation and underline the role of expertise in judging the aesthetic quality of movements. PMID:26047473

An index of effluent aquatic toxicity designed by partial least squares regression, using acute and chronic tests and expert judgments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vindimian, E.; Garric, J.; Flammarion, P.

1999-10-01

The evaluation of the ecotoxicity of effluents requires a battery of biological tests on several species. In order to derive a summary parameter from such a battery, a single endpoint was calculated for all the tests: the EC10, obtained by nonlinear regression, with bootstrap evaluation of the confidence intervals. Principal component analysis was used to characterize and visualize the correlation between the tests. The table of the toxicity of the effluents was then submitted to a panel of experts, who classified the effluents according to the test results. Partial least squares (PLS) regression was used to fit the average valuemore » of the experts' judgments to the toxicity data, using a simple equation. Furthermore, PLS regression on partial data sets and other considerations resulted in an optimum battery, with two chronic tests and one acute test. The index is intended to be used for the classification of effluents based on their toxicity to aquatic species.« less

Using structured expert judgment to assess invasive species prevention: Asian carp and the Mississippi-Great Lakes hydrologic connection.

PubMed

Wittmann, Marion E; Cooke, Roger M; Rothlisberger, John D; Lodge, David M

2014-02-18

Recently, authors have theorized that invasive species prevention is more cost-effective than control in protecting ecosystem services. However, quantification of the effectiveness of prevention is rare because experiments at field scales are expensive or infeasible. We therefore used structured expert judgment to quantify the efficacy of 17 proposed strategies to prevent Asian carp invasion of the Laurentian Great Lakes via the hydrologic connection between the Mississippi and Great Lakes watersheds. Performance-weighted expert estimates indicated that hydrologic separation would prevent 99% (95,100; median, 5th and 95th percentiles) of Asian carp access, while electric and acoustic-bubble-strobe barriers would prevent 92% (85,95) and 92% (75,95), respectively. For all other strategies, estimated effectiveness was lower, with greater uncertainty. When potential invasions by other taxa are considered, the effectiveness of hydrologic separation increases relative to strategies that are effective primarily for fishes. These results could help guide invasive species management in many waterways globally.

Once more: is beauty in the eye of the beholder? Relative contributions of private and shared taste to judgments of facial attractiveness.

PubMed

Hönekopp, Johannes

2006-04-01

Misconstruing the meaning of Cronbach's alpha, experts on facial attractiveness have conveyed the impression that facial-attractiveness judgment standards are largely shared. This claim is unsubstantiated, because information necessary for deciding whether judgments of facial attractiveness are more influenced by commonly shared or by privately held evaluation standards is lacking. Three experiments, using diverse face and rater samples to investigate the relative contributions of private and shared taste to judgments of facial attractiveness, are reported. These experiments show that for a variety of ancillary conditions, and contrary to the prevalent notion in the literature, private taste is about as powerful as shared taste. Important implications for scientific research strategy and laypeople's self-esteem are discussed.

Experiencing Art: The Influence of Expertise and Painting Abstraction Level

PubMed Central

Pihko, Elina; Virtanen, Anne; Saarinen, Veli-Matti; Pannasch, Sebastian; Hirvenkari, Lotta; Tossavainen, Timo; Haapala, Arto; Hari, Riitta

2011-01-01

How does expertise influence the perception of representational and abstract paintings? We asked 20 experts on art history and 20 laypersons to explore and evaluate a series of paintings ranging in style from representational to abstract in five categories. We compared subjective esthetic judgments and emotional evaluations, gaze patterns, and electrodermal reactivity between the two groups of participants. The level of abstraction affected esthetic judgments and emotional valence ratings of the laypersons but had no effect on the opinions of the experts: the laypersons’ esthetic and emotional ratings were highest for representational paintings and lowest for abstract paintings, whereas the opinions of the experts were independent of the abstraction level. The gaze patterns of both groups changed as the level of abstraction increased: the number of fixations and the length of the scanpaths increased while the duration of the fixations decreased. The viewing strategies – reflected in the target, location, and path of the fixations – however indicated that experts and laypersons paid attention to different aspects of the paintings. The electrodermal reactivity did not vary according to the level of abstraction in either group but expertise was reflected in weaker responses, compared with laypersons, to information received about the paintings. PMID:21941475

Human errors and measurement uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuselman, Ilya; Pennecchi, Francesca

2015-04-01

Evaluating the residual risk of human errors in a measurement and testing laboratory, remaining after the error reduction by the laboratory quality system, and quantifying the consequences of this risk for the quality of the measurement/test results are discussed based on expert judgments and Monte Carlo simulations. A procedure for evaluation of the contribution of the residual risk to the measurement uncertainty budget is proposed. Examples are provided using earlier published sets of expert judgments on human errors in pH measurement of groundwater, elemental analysis of geological samples by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, and multi-residue analysis of pesticides in fruits and vegetables. The human error contribution to the measurement uncertainty budget in the examples was not negligible, yet also not dominant. This was assessed as a good risk management result.

Fear of Progression in Parents of Children with Cancer: Results of An Online Expert Survey in Pediatric Oncology.

PubMed

Clever, Katharina; Schepper, Florian; Küpper, Luise; Christiansen, Holger; Martini, Julia

2018-04-01

Fear of Progression (FoP) is a commonly reported psychological strain in parents of children with cancer. This expert survey investigates how professionals in pediatric oncology estimate the burden and consequences of FoP in parents and how they assess and treat parental FoP. N=77 professionals in pediatric oncology (members and associates of the Psychosocial Association in Paediatric Oncology and Haematology, PSAPOH) were examined in an online survey with a self-developed questionnaire. Data were analyzed via descriptive statistics and qualitative content analysis. Three of four experts in clinical practice were (very) often confronted with parental FoP which was associated with more negative (e. g., psychosomatic reactions, reduced family functioning) than positive (e. g., active illness processing) consequences. N=40 experts indicated that they mainly assess parents' anxiety via clinical judgment (72.5%) and/or according to ICD-10/DSM-5 diagnostic criteria (37.5%), whereas standardized methods such as psycho-oncological questionnaires (12.5%) were applied less often. Only n=6 experts named a specific diagnostic approach to assess parental FoP. The most common treatment approaches for FoP were supportive counseling (74.0%), psychotherapy (59.7%) and/or relaxation techniques (55.8%). Parental FoP is frequently perceived by experts in clinical practice. A standardized diagnostic procedure would increase comparability of diagnostic judgments and harmonize treatment indications. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Research Needs for Human Factors

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-01-01

their relative merits. Until such comparisons are made, practitioners will continue to advocate their own products without a basis for choice among ...judgments among a group of experts; (2) formulating questions for "experts in a way that is compatible with their mental structures or "cognitive...system* Typically the operators work in teams and control compute3, which in turn mediate information flow among various automatic components. Other

[Ideal subspecialty training in the field of neurology - competence required for the experts: neurophysiology].

PubMed

Kohara, Nobuo

2012-01-01

All neurologists have to make a differential diagnosis of consciousness loss by EEG. The judgment of epilepsy is especially important. Experts of neurology were also required to determine the level and etiology of the acute or chronic weakness or numbness by EMG with nerve conduction study. Hands on seminar and e-learning would be useful to acquire these tools.

Water supply management using an extended group fuzzy decision-making method: a case study in north-eastern Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minatour, Yasser; Bonakdari, Hossein; Zarghami, Mahdi; Bakhshi, Maryam Ali

2015-09-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a group fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making method to be applied in rating problems associated with water resources management. Thus, here Chen's group fuzzy TOPSIS method extended by a difference technique to handle uncertainties of applying a group decision making. Then, the extended group fuzzy TOPSIS method combined with a consistency check. In the presented method, initially linguistic judgments are being surveyed via a consistency checking process, and afterward these judgments are being used in the extended Chen's fuzzy TOPSIS method. Here, each expert's opinion is turned to accurate mathematical numbers and, then, to apply uncertainties, the opinions of group are turned to fuzzy numbers using three mathematical operators. The proposed method is applied to select the optimal strategy for the rural water supply of Nohoor village in north-eastern Iran, as a case study and illustrated example. Sensitivity analyses test over results and comparing results with project reality showed that proposed method offered good results for water resources projects.

Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV IVb) risk factors and association measures derived by expert panel

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2010-01-01

Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) is an OIE-listed pathogen of fish, recently expanding in known host and geographic range in North America. Through a group process designed for subjective probability assessment, an international panel of fish health experts identified and weighted risk factors perceived important to the emergence and spread of the viral genotype, VHSV IVb, within and from the Great Lakes region of the US and Canada. Identified factors included the presence of known VHSV-susceptible species, water temperatures conducive for disease, hydrologic connectivity and proximity to known VHSV-positive areas, untested shipments of live or frozen fish from known positive regions, insufficient regulatory infrastructure for fish health oversight, and uncontrolled exposure to fomites associated with boat and equipment or fish wastes from known VHSV-positive areas. Results provide qualitative insights for use in VHSV surveillance and risk-management planning, and quantitative estimates of contextual risk for use in a Bayesian model combining multiple evidence streams for joint probability assessment of disease freedom status. Consistency checks suggest that the compiled factors positively reflect expert judgment of watershed risk for acquiring VHSV IVb. External validation is recommended as the availability of empirical data permits.

Exposure Models for the Prior Distribution in Bayesian Decision Analysis for Occupational Hygiene Decision Making

PubMed Central

Lee, Eun Gyung; Kim, Seung Won; Feigley, Charles E.; Harper, Martin

2015-01-01

This study introduces two semi-quantitative methods, Structured Subjective Assessment (SSA) and Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Essentials, in conjunction with two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations for determining prior probabilities. Prior distribution using expert judgment was included for comparison. Practical applications of the proposed methods were demonstrated using personal exposure measurements of isoamyl acetate in an electronics manufacturing facility and of isopropanol in a printing shop. Applicability of these methods in real workplaces was discussed based on the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Although these methods could not be completely independent of expert judgments, this study demonstrated a methodological improvement in the estimation of the prior distribution for the Bayesian decision analysis tool. The proposed methods provide a logical basis for the decision process by considering determinants of worker exposure. PMID:23252451

Individual Moral Judgment and Cultural Ideologies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Narvaez, Darcia; Getz, Irene; Rest, James R.; Thoma, Stephen J.

1999-01-01

Two studies examined how moral judgment and cultural ideology combine to predict moral thinking in members of a conservative church and a liberal church, and in a secular sample of university undergraduates. Found that a combination of religious ideology, political identity, and moral judgment predicted the church members' opinions on human-rights…

Determining dangerousness in sexually violent predator evaluations: cognitive-experiential self-theory and juror judgments of expert testimony.

PubMed

Lieberman, Joel D; Krauss, Daniel A; Kyger, Mariel; Lehoux, Maribeth

2007-01-01

Past research examining the effects of expert testimony on the future dangerousness of a defendant in death penalty sentencing found that jurors are more influenced by less scientific clinical expert testimony and tend to devalue scientific actuarial testimony. This study was designed to determine whether these findings extend to civil commitment trials for sexual offenders and to test a theoretical rationale for this effect. In addition, we investigated the influence of a recently developed innovation in risk assessment procedures, Guided Professional Judgment (GPJ) instruments. Consistent with a cognitive-experiential self-theory based explanation, mock jurors motivated to process information in an experiential condition were more influenced by clinical testimony, while mock jurors in a rational mode were more influenced by actuarial testimony. Participants responded to clinical and GPJ testimony in a similar manner. However, participants' gender exerted important interactive effects on dangerousness decisions, with male jurors showing the predicted effect while females did not. The policy implications of these findings are discussed. 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

The validation of science virtual test to assess 7th grade students’ critical thinking on matter and heat topic (SVT-MH)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sya’bandari, Y.; Firman, H.; Rusyati, L.

2018-05-01

The method used in this research was descriptive research for profiling the validation of SVT-MH to measure students’ critical thinking on matter and heat topic in junior high school. The subject is junior high school students of 7th grade (13 years old) while science teacher and expert as the validators. The instruments that used as a tool to obtain the data are rubric expert judgment (content, media, education) and rubric of readability test. There are four steps to validate SVT-MH in 7th grade Junior High School. These steps are analysis of core competence and basic competence based on Curriculum 2013, expert judgment (content, media, education), readability test and trial test (limited and larger trial test). The instrument validation resulted 30 items that represent 8 elements and 21 sub-elements to measure students’ critical thinking based on Inch in matter and heat topic. The alpha Cronbach (α) is 0.642 which means that the instrument is sufficient to measure students’ critical thinking matter and heat topic.

Adductor spasmodic dysphonia: Relationships between acoustic indices and perceptual judgments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannito, Michael P.; Sapienza, Christine M.; Woodson, Gayle; Murry, Thomas

2003-04-01

This study investigated relationships between acoustical indices of spasmodic dysphonia and perceptual scaling judgments of voice attributes made by expert listeners. Audio-recordings of The Rainbow Passage were obtained from thirty one speakers with spasmodic dysphonia before and after a BOTOX injection of the vocal folds. Six temporal acoustic measures were obtained across 15 words excerpted from each reading sample, including both frequency of occurrence and percent time for (1) aperiodic phonation, (2) phonation breaks, and (3) fundamental frequency shifts. Visual analog scaling judgments were also obtained from six voice experts using an interactive computer interface to quantify four voice attributes (i.e., overall quality, roughness, brokenness, breathiness) in a carefully psychoacoustically controlled environment, using the same reading passages as stimuli. Number and percent aperiodicity and phonation breaks correlated significanly with perceived overall voice quality, roughness, and brokenness before and after the BOTOX injection. Breathiness was correlated with aperidocity only prior to injection, while roughness also correlated with frequency shifts following injection. Factor analysis reduced perceived attributes to two principal components: glottal squeezing and breathiness. The acoustic measures demonstrated a strong regression relationship with perceived glottal squeezing, but no regression relationship with breathiness was observed. Implications for an analysis of pathologic voices will be discussed.

Movement evaluation of front crawl swimming: Technical skill versus aesthetic quality

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The study aim was to compare expert with non-expert swimmers’ rating of the aesthetic and technical qualities of front crawl in video-taped recordings of swimmers with low, middle, and high level proficiency. The results suggest that: i) observers’ experience affects their judgment: only the expert observers correctly rated the swimmers’ proficiency level; ii) evaluation of movement (technical and aesthetic scores) is correlated with the level of skill as expressed in the kinematics of the observed action (swimming speed, stroke frequency, and stroke length); iii) expert and non-expert observers use different strategies to rate the aesthetic and technical qualities of movement: equating the technical skill with the aesthetic quality is a general rule non-expert observers follow in the evaluation of human movement. PMID:28886063

Instruction in information structuring improves Bayesian judgment in intelligence analysts.

PubMed

Mandel, David R

2015-01-01

An experiment was conducted to test the effectiveness of brief instruction in information structuring (i.e., representing and integrating information) for improving the coherence of probability judgments and binary choices among intelligence analysts. Forty-three analysts were presented with comparable sets of Bayesian judgment problems before and immediately after instruction. After instruction, analysts' probability judgments were more coherent (i.e., more additive and compliant with Bayes theorem). Instruction also improved the coherence of binary choices regarding category membership: after instruction, subjects were more likely to invariably choose the category to which they assigned the higher probability of a target's membership. The research provides a rare example of evidence-based validation of effectiveness in instruction to improve the statistical assessment skills of intelligence analysts. Such instruction could also be used to improve the assessment quality of other types of experts who are required to integrate statistical information or make probabilistic assessments.

Clinical negligence in hospitals in France and England.

PubMed

Kelly, Michael J; de Bono Q C, John; Métayer, Patrice

2015-12-01

This article arose from the back-to-back presentations by Michael Kelly and Patrice Métayer to the Anglo-French Medical Society in 2013 on the French and English legal systems handling a case of alleged clinical negligence as it proceeds from complaint to settlement or judgment in the two jurisdictions. Both systems have a hospital-based first stage with various avenues being available for amicable resolution, the French version being more regulated and prescribed than the English one. In both jurisdictions fewer than 5% cases go down the criminal route. Before the court is involved, in England there is an elaborate lawyer-controlled phase involving negotiations between the two sides and their experts which is expensive but often leads to pre-trial settlement for significant sums of money. Medical experts are central to all of this. In England they are largely unregulated and entirely advisory in an open market, in France they are both regulated and supervised by judges, being placed on official lists. These experts take a major inquisitorial role in a Debate between the two sides, combining the functions of Single Joint Expert (SJE), arbiter and mentor. If agreement is not reached, a second Debate before a different Expert is arranged. In both countries fewer than 5% cases reach a court for a hearing before a judge. In England a trial is an elaborate lengthy, expensive adversarial contest where all of the issues are rehearsed in full with factual and expert evidence, whereas in France in a contested case the judge reviews the reports of the two Debates with the lawyers who were involved (and not the experts, factual witnesses or parties). © The Author(s) 2015.

Informing Public Perceptions About Climate Change: A 'Mental Models' Approach.

PubMed

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi

2017-10-01

As the specter of climate change looms on the horizon, people will face complex decisions about whether to support climate change policies and how to cope with climate change impacts on their lives. Without some grasp of the relevant science, they may find it hard to make informed decisions. Climate experts therefore face the ethical need to effectively communicate to non-expert audiences. Unfortunately, climate experts may inadvertently violate the maxims of effective communication, which require sharing communications that are truthful, brief, relevant, clear, and tested for effectiveness. Here, we discuss the 'mental models' approach towards developing communications, which aims to help experts to meet the maxims of effective communications, and to better inform the judgments and decisions of non-expert audiences.

Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors

PubMed Central

Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M. Granger

2013-01-01

Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable. PMID:23716682

Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors.

PubMed

Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M Granger

2013-06-11

Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable.

Use of Bayesian event trees in semi-quantitative volcano eruption forecasting and hazard analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Heather; Pallister, John; Newhall, Chris

2015-04-01

Use of Bayesian event trees to forecast eruptive activity during volcano crises is an increasingly common practice for the USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) in collaboration with foreign counterparts. This semi-quantitative approach combines conceptual models of volcanic processes with current monitoring data and patterns of occurrence to reach consensus probabilities. This approach allows a response team to draw upon global datasets, local observations, and expert judgment, where the relative influence of these data depends upon the availability and quality of monitoring data and the degree to which the volcanic history is known. The construction of such event trees additionally relies upon existence and use of relevant global databases and documented past periods of unrest. Because relevant global databases may be underpopulated or nonexistent, uncertainty in probability estimations may be large. Our 'hybrid' approach of combining local and global monitoring data and expert judgment facilitates discussion and constructive debate between disciplines: including seismology, gas geochemistry, geodesy, petrology, physical volcanology and technology/engineering, where difference in opinion between response team members contributes to definition of the uncertainty in the probability estimations. In collaboration with foreign colleagues, we have created event trees for numerous areas experiencing volcanic unrest. Event trees are created for a specified time frame and are updated, revised, or replaced as the crisis proceeds. Creation of an initial tree is often prompted by a change in monitoring data, such that rapid assessment of probability is needed. These trees are intended as a vehicle for discussion and a way to document relevant data and models, where the target audience is the scientists themselves. However, the probabilities derived through the event-tree analysis can also be used to help inform communications with emergency managers and the public. VDAP trees evaluate probabilities of: magmatic intrusion, likelihood of eruption, magnitude of eruption, and types of associated hazardous events and their extents. In a few cases, trees have been extended to also assess and communicate vulnerability and relative risk.

Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) - a bottom-up, science-led approach to identifying indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mengis, Nadine; Keller, David P.; Oschlies, Andreas

2018-01-01

This study introduces the Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) method, a bottom-up approach which combines expert judgment and statistical information to systematically select transparent, nonredundant indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the state of the Earth system. The methods consists of two basic steps: (1) the calculation of a correlation matrix among variables relevant for a given research question and (2) the systematic evaluation of the matrix, to identify clusters of variables with similar behavior and respective mutually independent indicators. Optional further analysis steps include (3) the interpretation of the identified clusters, enabling a learning effect from the selection of indicators, (4) testing the robustness of identified clusters with respect to changes in forcing or boundary conditions, (5) enabling a comparative assessment of varying scenarios by constructing and evaluating a common correlation matrix, and (6) the inclusion of expert judgment, for example, to prescribe indicators, to allow for considerations other than statistical consistency. The example application of the SCoMaE method to Earth system model output forced by different CO2 emission scenarios reveals the necessity of reevaluating indicators identified in a historical scenario simulation for an accurate assessment of an intermediate-high, as well as a business-as-usual, climate change scenario simulation. This necessity arises from changes in prevailing correlations in the Earth system under varying climate forcing. For a comparative assessment of the three climate change scenarios, we construct and evaluate a common correlation matrix, in which we identify robust correlations between variables across the three considered scenarios.

[Ascertainment of physical fitness for work in persons applying for annuities in the Federal Republic of Germany (author's transl)].

PubMed

Gramse, M; Wille, G

1980-06-01

Annuities granted because of unfitness for work in general or unfitness to perform particular professional work are being paid in Germany by a state insurance agency. Unfitness for work has to be ascertained in each individual case as has been ruled by jurisdiction of the Highest German Court. It is the task of the medical expert in the course of this procedure to register the clinical status of the applicants and to reach a medical judgment in regard to fitness for work. This judgment does not rely upon the diagnosis or prognosis of a particular disease; a decreased fitness for work because of a particular disease can only be assumed if the disease has led to long-term irreversible deficient organ functions. Annuities for a limited time period may be granted if there is a chance for improvement of health. Problems of finding expert judgement are reported.

Persistent bias in expert judgments about free will and moral responsibility: a test of the expertise defense.

PubMed

Schulz, Eric; Cokely, Edward T; Feltz, Adam

2011-12-01

Many philosophers appeal to intuitions to support some philosophical views. However, there is reason to be concerned about this practice as scientific evidence has documented systematic bias in philosophically relevant intuitions as a function of seemingly irrelevant features (e.g., personality). One popular defense used to insulate philosophers from these concerns holds that philosophical expertise eliminates the influence of these extraneous factors. Here, we test this assumption. We present data suggesting that verifiable philosophical expertise in the free will debate-as measured by a reliable and validated test of expert knowledge-does not eliminate the influence of one important extraneous feature (i.e., the heritable personality trait extraversion) on judgments concerning freedom and moral responsibility. These results suggest that, in at least some important cases, the expertise defense fails. Implications for the practice of philosophy, experimental philosophy, and applied ethics are discussed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Layman versus Professional Musician: Who Makes the Better Judge?

PubMed Central

Larrouy-Maestri, Pauline; Magis, David; Grabenhorst, Matthias; Morsomme, Dominique

2015-01-01

The increasing number of casting shows and talent contests in the media over the past years suggests a public interest in rating the quality of vocal performances. In many of these formats, laymen alongside music experts act as judges. Whereas experts' judgments are considered objective and reliable when it comes to evaluating singing voice, little is known about laymen’s ability to evaluate peers. On the one hand, layman listeners–who by definition did not have any formal training or regular musical practice–are known to have internalized the musical rules on which singing accuracy is based. On the other hand, layman listeners’ judgment of their own vocal skills is highly inaccurate. Also, when compared with that of music experts, their level of competence in pitch perception has proven limited. The present study investigates laypersons' ability to objectively evaluate melodies performed by untrained singers. For this purpose, laymen listeners were asked to judge sung melodies. The results were compared with those of music experts who had performed the same task in a previous study. Interestingly, the findings show a high objectivity and reliability in layman listeners. Whereas both the laymen's and experts' definition of pitch accuracy overlap, differences regarding the musical criteria employed in the rating task were evident. The findings suggest that the effect of expertise is circumscribed and limited and supports the view that laypersons make trustworthy judges when evaluating the pitch accuracy of untrained singers. PMID:26308213

Security during the Construction of New Nuclear Power Plants: Technical Basis for Access Authorization and Fitness-For-Duty Requirements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Branch, Kristi M.; Baker, Kathryn A.

A technical letter report to the NRC summarizing the findings of a benchmarking study, literature review, and workshop with experts on current industry standards and expert judgments about needs for security during the construction phase of critical infrastructure facilities in the post-September 11 U.S. context, with a special focus on the construction phase of nuclear power plants and personnel security measures.

Towards an understanding of adult judgments of synergistic health benefits.

PubMed

Dawson, Ian G J; Dohle, Simone

2016-02-01

Numerous scientific studies show that certain combinations of dietary and/or lifestyle factors produce health benefits which are greater than the sum of the benefits associated with each factor alone. To address an existing knowledge gap, we assessed the extent to which individuals understand that certain combinations present these 'synergistic health benefits'. Health benefit judgments were obtained from lay adults for a range of dietary and/or lifestyle combinations that have been found to present synergistic benefits. Association between these judgments and socio-cognitive characteristics such as numeracy, education, and health interest (HI) were examined. Three hundred and fifty-two Swiss adults were presented with a description of one of eight synergistically beneficial combinations. Each participant provided a categorical benefit judgment (i.e., subadditive, additive, or synergistic) for the combination and explained the cognitive reasoning underlying their judgment. Participants completed measures of numeracy and HI. The proportion of combinations judged to present a synergistic benefit was modest for 'macro-level' combinations (e.g., diet and exercise), but low for 'micro-level' combinations (e.g., two phytochemicals). Cognitive reasoning data showed that a higher proportion of judgments for micro-level (cf. macro-level) combinations were based on greater subjective epistemic uncertainty. Higher interest in health was associated with a better understanding of synergistic benefits, but numeracy and education level were not. There is considerable scope to improve the extent to which lay adults understand that specific combination of diet and lifestyle behaviours can synergistically benefit their health. Our results enable us to make informed recommendations for public health interventions. What is already known on this subject? Combining certain dietary and/or lifestyle factors can result in synergistic health benefits. People could maintain/enhance their health by combining these synergistic combinations. No previous studies have assessed the extent to which people understand that certain factors produce synergistic health benefits. What does this study add? This is the first study to identify that lay awareness of synergistic health benefits could be substantially improved. Neither education level nor numeracy moderate judgments of synergistic benefits, but health interest does. Individuals better understand that broad lifestyle behaviours (cf. specific foods and phytochemicals) are synergistic. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

WHEN AND WHY DO HEDGEHOGS AND FOXES DIFFER?

PubMed

Keil, Frank C

2010-01-01

Philip E. Tetlock's finding that "hedgehog" experts (those with one big theory) are worse predictors than "foxes" (those with multiple, less comprehensive theories) offers fertile ground for future research. Are experts as likely to exhibit hedgehog- or fox-like tendencies in areas that call for explanatory, diagnostic, and skill-based expertise-as they did when Tetlock called on experts to make predictions? Do particular domains of expertise curtail or encourage different styles of expertise? Can we trace these different styles to childhood? Finally, can we nudge hedgehogs to be more like foxes? Current research can only grope at the answers to these questions, but they are essential to gauging the health of expert political judgment.

AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF CLINICAL ENDOCRINOLOGISTS AND AMERICAN COLLEGE OF ENDOCRINOLOGY 2016 OUTPATIENT GLUCOSE MONITORING CONSENSUS STATEMENT.

PubMed

Bailey, Timothy S; Grunberger, George; Bode, Bruce W; Handelsman, Yehuda; Hirsch, Irl B; Jovanovič, Lois; Roberts, Victor Lawrence; Rodbard, David; Tamborlane, William V; Walsh, John

2016-02-01

This document represents the official position of the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists and American College of Endocrinology. Where there were no randomized controlled trials or specific U.S. FDA labeling for issues in clinical practice, the participating clinical experts utilized their judgment and experience. Every effort was made to achieve consensus among the committee members. Position statements are meant to provide guidance, but they are not to be considered prescriptive for any individual patient and cannot replace the judgment of a clinician.

Development of 3-D lithostratigraphic and confidence models at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buesch, D.C.; Nelson, J.E.; Dickerson, R.P.; Spengler, R.W.

1993-01-01

Computerized three-dimensional geologic models of potential high-level nuclear waste repositories such as Yucca Moutain, Nevada, are important for visualizing the complex interplay of (1) thickness and facies variations in lithostratigraphic units and (2) the disruption of these units by faults. The concept of a 'model of confidence' in the lithostratigraphic model is introduced to show where data are located versus regions where interpolations are included. Models of confidence can be based on (1) expert judgment, (2) geostatistical analysis, or (3) a simplified combination of these two methods. Linking of lithostratigraphic models and models of confidence provide guidelines for future characterization and modeling activities, as well as for design and construction of the Exploratory Studies Facility.

Issues in Psychological Research and Application in Transfer of Training

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-12-01

anywhere on my form to check that the subject cried. In spite of the most detailed planning, It Is Impossible to anticipate everythingi My example of the...transfer task Involves "roal-world" Job performance. I would now like to briefly characterize our major transfer of training experiments. The most ...such attempts suggests that In this complex area, task experts are not that reliable In their judgment*. The danger In trying to use the expert to

Guidelines for using the Delphi Technique to develop habitat suitability index curves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crance, Johnie H.

1987-01-01

Habitat Suitability Index (SI) curves are one method of presenting species habitat suitability criteria. The curves are often used with the Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP) and are necessary components of the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM) (Armour et al. 1984). Bovee (1986) described three categories of SI curves or habitat suitability criteria based on the procedures and data used to develop the criteria. Category I curves are based on professional judgment, with 1ittle or no empirical data. Both Category II (utilization criteria) and Category III (preference criteria) curves have as their source data collected at locations where target species are observed or collected. Having Category II and Category III curves for all species of concern would be ideal. In reality, no SI curves are available for many species, and SI curves that require intensive field sampling often cannot be developed under prevailing constraints on time and costs. One alternative under these circumstances is the development and interim use of SI curves based on expert opinion. The Delphi technique (Pill 1971; Delbecq et al. 1975; Linstone and Turoff 1975) is one method used for combining the knowledge and opinions of a group of experts. The purpose of this report is to describe how the Delphi technique may be used to develop expert-opinion-based SI curves.

Health risk assessment for nanoparticles: A case for using expert judgment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kandlikar, Milind; Ramachandran, Gurumurthy; Maynard, Andrew; Murdock, Barbara; Toscano, William A.

2007-01-01

Uncertainties in conventional quantitative risk assessment typically relate to values of parameters in risk models. For many environmental contaminants, there is a lack of sufficient information about multiple components of the risk assessment framework. In such cases, the use of default assumptions and extrapolations to fill in the data gaps is a common practice. Nanoparticle risks, however, pose a new form of risk assessment challenge. Besides a lack of data, there is deep scientific uncertainty regarding every aspect of the risk assessment framework: (a) particle characteristics that may affect toxicity; (b) their fate and transport through the environment; (c) the routes of exposure and the metrics by which exposure ought to be measured; (d) the mechanisms of translocation to different parts of the body; and (e) the mechanisms of toxicity and disease. In each of these areas, there are multiple and competing models and hypotheses. These are not merely parametric uncertainties but uncertainties about the choice of the causal mechanisms themselves and the proper model variables to be used, i.e., structural uncertainties. While these uncertainties exist for PM2.5 as well, risk assessment for PM2.5 has avoided dealing with these issues because of a plethora of epidemiological studies. However, such studies don't exist for the case of nanoparticles. Even if such studies are done in the future, they will be very specific to a particular type of engineered nanoparticle and not generalizable to other nanoparticles. Therefore, risk assessment for nanoparticles will have to deal with the various uncertainties that were avoided in the case of PM2.5. Consequently, uncertainties in estimating risks due to nanoparticle exposures may be characterized as `extreme'. This paper proposes a methodology by which risk analysts can cope with such extreme uncertainty. One way to make these problems analytically tractable is to use expert judgment approaches to study the degree of consensus and/or disagreement between experts on different parts of the exposure-response paradigm. This can be done by eliciting judgments from a wide range of experts on different parts of the risk causal chain. We also use examples to illustrate how studying expert consensus/disagreement helps in research prioritization and budget allocation exercises. The expert elicitation can be repeated over the course of several years, over which time, the state of scientific knowledge will also improve and uncertainties may possibly reduce. Results from expert the elicitation exercise can be used by risk managers or managers of funding agencies as a tool for research prioritization.

Discus: investigating subjective judgment of optic disc damage.

PubMed

Denniss, Jonathan; Echendu, Damian; Henson, David B; Artes, Paul H

2011-01-01

To describe a software package (Discus) for investigating clinicians' subjective assessment of optic disc damage [diagnostic accuracy in detecting visual field (VF) damage, decision criteria, and agreement with a panel of experts] and to provide reference data from a group of expert observers. Optic disc images were selected from patients with manifest or suspected glaucoma or ocular hypertension who attended the Manchester Royal Eye Hospital. Eighty images came from eyes without evidence of VF loss in at least four consecutive tests (VF negatives), and 20 images from eyes with repeatable VF loss (VF positives). Software was written to display these images in randomized order, for up to 60 s. Expert observers (n = 12) rated optic disc damage on a 5-point scale (definitely healthy, probably healthy, not sure, probably damaged, and definitely damaged). Optic disc damage as determined by the expert observers predicted VF loss with less than perfect accuracy (mean area under receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.78; range, 0.72 to 0.85). When the responses were combined across the panel of experts, the area under receiver-operating characteristic curve reached 0.87, corresponding to a sensitivity of ∼60% at 90% specificity. Although the observers' performances were similar, there were large differences between the criteria they adopted (p < 0.001), even though all observers had been given identical instructions. Discus provides a simple and rapid means for assessing important aspects of optic disc interpretation. The data from the panel of expert observers provide a reference against which students, trainees, and clinicians may compare themselves. The program and the analyses described in this article are freely accessible from http://www.discusproject.blogspot.com/.

Individual moral judgment and cultural ideologies.

PubMed

Narvaez, D; Getz, I; Rest, J R; Thoma, S J

1999-03-01

Moral judgment cannot be reduced to cultural ideology, or vice versa. But when each construct is measured separately, then combined, the product predicts powerfully to moral thinking. In Study 1, 2 churches (N = 96) were selected for their differences on religious ideology, political identity, and moral judgment. By combining these 3 variables, a multiple correlation of .79 predicted to members' moral thinking (opinions on human rights issues). Study 2 replicated this finding in a secular sample, with the formula established in Study 1 (R = .77). Individual conceptual development in moral judgment and socialization into cultural ideology co-occur, simultaneously and reciprocally, in parallel, and not serially. Individual development in moral judgment provides the epistemological categories for cultural ideology, which in turn influences the course of moral judgment, to produce moral thinking (e.g., opinions about abortion, free speech).

Assessment of Group Preferences and Group Uncertainty for Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-06-01

the individ- uals. decision making , group judgments should be preferred to individual judgments if obtaining group judgments costs more. -26- -YI IV... decision making group . IV. A. 3. Aggregation using conjugate distribution. Arvther procedure for combining indivi(jai probability judgments into a group...statisticized group group decision making group judgment subjective probability Delphi method expected utility nominal group 20. ABSTRACT (Continue on

The Script Concordance Test: a new tool assessing clinical judgement in neurology.

PubMed

Lubarsky, Stuart; Chalk, Colin; Kazitani, Driss; Gagnon, Robert; Charlin, Bernard

2009-05-01

Clinical judgment, the ability to make appropriate decisions in uncertain situations, is central to neurological practice, but objective measures of clinical judgment in neurology trainees are lacking. The Script Concordance Test (SCT), based on script theory from cognitive psychology, uses authentic clinical scenarios to compare a trainee's judgment skills with those of experts. The SCT has been validated in several medical disciplines, but has not been investigated in neurology. We developed an Internet-based neurology SCT (NSCT) comprising 24 clinical scenarios with three to four questions each. The scenarios were designed to reflect the uncertainty of real-life clinical encounters in adult neurology. The questions explored aspects of the scenario in which several responses might be acceptable; trainees were asked to judge which response they considered to be best. Forty-one PGY1-PGY5 neurology residents and eight medical students from three North American neurology programs (McGill, Calgary, and Mayo Clinic) completed the NSCT. The responses of trainees to each question were compared with the aggregate responses of an expert panel of 16 attending neurologists. The NSCT demonstrated good reliability (Cronbach alpha = 0.79). Neurology residents scored higher than medical students and lower than attending neurologists, supporting the test's construct validity. Furthermore, NSCT scores discriminated between senior (PGY3-5) and junior residents (PGY1-2). Our NSCT is a practical and reliable instrument, and our findings support its construct validity for assessing judgment in neurology trainees. The NSCT has potentially widespread applications as an evaluation tool, both in neurology training and for licensing examinations.

Reappraising Abstract Paintings after Exposure to Background Information

PubMed Central

Park, Seongmin A.; Yun, Kyongsik; Jeong, Jaeseung

2015-01-01

Can knowledge help viewers when they appreciate an artwork? Experts’ judgments of the aesthetic value of a painting often differ from the estimates of naïve viewers, and this phenomenon is especially pronounced in the aesthetic judgment of abstract paintings. We compared the changes in aesthetic judgments of naïve viewers while they were progressively exposed to five pieces of background information. The participants were asked to report their aesthetic judgments of a given painting after each piece of information was presented. We found that commentaries by the artist and a critic significantly increased the subjective aesthetic ratings. Does knowledge enable experts to attend to the visual features in a painting and to link it to the evaluative conventions, thus potentially causing different aesthetic judgments? To investigate whether a specific pattern of attention is essential for the knowledge-based appreciation, we tracked the eye movements of subjects while viewing a painting with a commentary by the artist and with a commentary by a critic. We observed that critics’ commentaries directed the viewers’ attention to the visual components that were highly relevant to the presented commentary. However, attention to specific features of a painting was not necessary for increasing the subjective aesthetic judgment when the artists’ commentary was presented. Our results suggest that at least two different cognitive mechanisms may be involved in knowledge- guided aesthetic judgments while viewers reappraise a painting. PMID:25945789

WHEN AND WHY DO HEDGEHOGS AND FOXES DIFFER?

PubMed Central

Keil, Frank C.

2011-01-01

Philip E. Tetlock’s finding that “hedgehog” experts (those with one big theory) are worse predictors than “foxes” (those with multiple, less comprehensive theories) offers fertile ground for future research. Are experts as likely to exhibit hedgehog- or fox-like tendencies in areas that call for explanatory, diagnostic, and skill-based expertise—as they did when Tetlock called on experts to make predictions? Do particular domains of expertise curtail or encourage different styles of expertise? Can we trace these different styles to childhood? Finally, can we nudge hedgehogs to be more like foxes? Current research can only grope at the answers to these questions, but they are essential to gauging the health of expert political judgment. PMID:21698070

Research on evaluation of third-party governance operation services for environmental pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Bingsheng; Ling, Lin; Jin, Huang

2017-11-01

This paper focuses on the evaluation of third-party governance operation services for environmental pollution, and determines the evaluation indicator system composed of 5 primary indicators as the basic competence of enterprise, operation of equipment, technique economics, environmental benefit and management level, and 26 secondary indicators via policies and regulations, standards, literature research and expert consultation in combination with the composition elements, service value judgment factors and full-life cycle of the work, providing theoretical support for the effect evaluation of third-governance over the environmental pollution in China. Then, the hierarchical analytic matrix is formed by analyzing the environmental pollution governance evaluation indicator system via analytic hierarchy process and scoring the importance of various indicators by experts by applying the Delphi method. The feature vector of the matrix is then calculated to obtain the weight of each indicator and verify the effectiveness of the Delphi method and obtain the comprehensive weight by judging the consistency of the matrix, so as to finally determine the overall ordering level of the importance of secondary indicators.

Intuitionistic fuzzy analytical hierarchical processes for selecting the paradigms of mangroves in municipal wastewater treatment.

PubMed

Ouyang, Xiaoguang; Guo, Fen

2018-04-01

Municipal wastewater discharge is widespread and one of the sources of coastal eutrophication, and is especially uncontrolled in developing and undeveloped coastal regions. Mangrove forests are natural filters of pollutants in wastewater. There are three paradigms of mangroves for municipal wastewater treatment and the selection of the optimal one is a multi-criteria decision-making problem. Combining intuitionistic fuzzy theory, the Fuzzy Delphi Method and the fuzzy analytical hierarchical process (AHP), this study develops an intuitionistic fuzzy AHP (IFAHP) method. For the Fuzzy Delphi Method, the judgments of experts and representatives on criterion weights are made by linguistic variables and quantified by intuitionistic fuzzy theory, which is also used to weight the importance of experts and representatives. This process generates the entropy weights of criteria, which are combined with indices values and weights to rank the alternatives by the fuzzy AHP method. The IFAHP method was used to select the optimal paradigm of mangroves for treating municipal wastewater. The entropy weights were entrained by the valid evaluation of 64 experts and representatives via online survey. Natural mangroves were found to be the optimal paradigm for municipal wastewater treatment. By assigning different weights to the criteria, sensitivity analysis shows that natural mangroves remain to be the optimal paradigm under most scenarios. This study stresses the importance of mangroves for wastewater treatment. Decision-makers need to contemplate mangrove reforestation projects, especially where mangroves are highly deforested but wastewater discharge is uncontrolled. The IFAHP method is expected to be applied in other multi-criteria decision-making cases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability of clinical guideline development using mail-only versus in-person expert panels.

PubMed

Washington, Donna L; Bernstein, Steven J; Kahan, James P; Leape, Lucian L; Kamberg, Caren J; Shekelle, Paul G

2003-12-01

Clinical practice guidelines quickly become outdated. One reason they might not be updated as often as needed is the expense of collecting expert judgment regarding the evidence. The RAND-UCLA Appropriateness Method is one commonly used method for collecting expert opinion. We tested whether a less expensive, mail-only process could substitute for the standard in-person process normally used. We performed a 4-way replication of the appropriateness panel process for coronary revascularization and hysterectomy, conducting 3 panels using the conventional in-person method and 1 panel entirely by mail. All indications were classified as inappropriate or not (to evaluate overuse), and coronary revascularization indications were classified as necessary or not (to evaluate underuse). Kappa statistics were calculated for the comparison in ratings from the 2 methods. Agreement beyond chance between the 2 panel methods ranged from moderate to substantial. The kappa statistic to detect overuse was 0.57 for coronary revascularization and 0.70 for hysterectomy. The kappa statistic to detect coronary revascularization underuse was 0.76. There were no cases in which coronary revascularization was considered inappropriate by 1 method, but necessary or appropriate by the other. Three of 636 (0.5%) hysterectomy cases were categorized as inappropriate by 1 method but appropriate by the other. The reproducibility of the overuse and underuse assessments from the mail-only compared with the conventional in-person conduct of expert panels in this application was similar to the underlying reproducibility of the process. This suggests a potential role for updating guidelines using an expert judgment process conducted entirely through the mail.

Sight over sound in the judgment of music performance.

PubMed

Tsay, Chia-Jung

2013-09-03

Social judgments are made on the basis of both visual and auditory information, with consequential implications for our decisions. To examine the impact of visual information on expert judgment and its predictive validity for performance outcomes, this set of seven experiments in the domain of music offers a conservative test of the relative influence of vision versus audition. People consistently report that sound is the most important source of information in evaluating performance in music. However, the findings demonstrate that people actually depend primarily on visual information when making judgments about music performance. People reliably select the actual winners of live music competitions based on silent video recordings, but neither musical novices nor professional musicians were able to identify the winners based on sound recordings or recordings with both video and sound. The results highlight our natural, automatic, and nonconscious dependence on visual cues. The dominance of visual information emerges to the degree that it is overweighted relative to auditory information, even when sound is consciously valued as the core domain content.

Sight over sound in the judgment of music performance

PubMed Central

Tsay, Chia-Jung

2013-01-01

Social judgments are made on the basis of both visual and auditory information, with consequential implications for our decisions. To examine the impact of visual information on expert judgment and its predictive validity for performance outcomes, this set of seven experiments in the domain of music offers a conservative test of the relative influence of vision versus audition. People consistently report that sound is the most important source of information in evaluating performance in music. However, the findings demonstrate that people actually depend primarily on visual information when making judgments about music performance. People reliably select the actual winners of live music competitions based on silent video recordings, but neither musical novices nor professional musicians were able to identify the winners based on sound recordings or recordings with both video and sound. The results highlight our natural, automatic, and nonconscious dependence on visual cues. The dominance of visual information emerges to the degree that it is overweighted relative to auditory information, even when sound is consciously valued as the core domain content. PMID:23959902

Data-driven risk models could help target pipeline safety inspections

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-07-01

Federal safety agencies share a common problemthe : need to target resources effectively to reduce risk. One : way this targeting is commonly done is with a risk model : that uses safety data along with expert judgment to identify : and weight ris...

75 FR 32161 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Consumer Focus...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-07

... staff relies on its expert judgment about consumer behavior, perceptions, and similar information... CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY COMMISSION [Docket No. CPSC-2010-0046] Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Consumer Focus Groups AGENCY: Consumer Product Safety...

Limits to global and Australian temperature change this century based on expert judgment of climate sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grose, Michael R.; Colman, Robert; Bhend, Jonas; Moise, Aurel F.

2017-05-01

The projected warming of surface air temperature at the global and regional scale by the end of the century is directly related to emissions and Earth's climate sensitivity. Projections are typically produced using an ensemble of climate models such as CMIP5, however the range of climate sensitivity in models doesn't cover the entire range considered plausible by expert judgment. Of particular interest from a risk-management perspective is the lower impact outcome associated with low climate sensitivity and the low-probability, high-impact outcomes associated with the top of the range. Here we scale climate model output to the limits of expert judgment of climate sensitivity to explore these limits. This scaling indicates an expanded range of projected change for each emissions pathway, including a much higher upper bound for both the globe and Australia. We find the possibility of exceeding a warming of 2 °C since pre-industrial is projected under high emissions for every model even scaled to the lowest estimate of sensitivity, and is possible under low emissions under most estimates of sensitivity. Although these are not quantitative projections, the results may be useful to inform thinking about the limits to change until the sensitivity can be more reliably constrained, or this expanded range of possibilities can be explored in a more formal way. When viewing climate projections, accounting for these low-probability but high-impact outcomes in a risk management approach can complement the focus on the likely range of projections. They can also highlight the scale of the potential reduction in range of projections, should tight constraints on climate sensitivity be established by future research.

CONSENSUS STATEMENT BY THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF CLINICAL ENDOCRINOLOGISTS AND AMERICAN COLLEGE OF ENDOCRINOLOGY ON THE COMPREHENSIVE TYPE 2 DIABETES MANAGEMENT ALGORITHM--2015 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.

PubMed

Garber, Alan J; Abrahamson, Martin Julian; Barzilay, Joshua I; Blonde, Lawrence; Bloomgarden, Zachary T; Bush, Michael A; Dagogo-Jack, Samuel; Davidson, Michael B; Einhorn, Daniel; Garber, Jeffrey R; Garvey, W Timothy; Grunberger, George; Handelsman, Yehuda; Hirsch, Irl B; Jellinger, Paul S; McGill, Janet B; Mechanick, Jeffrey I; Rosenblit, Paul David; Umpierrez, Guillermo E

2015-12-01

This document represents the official position of the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists and the American College of Endocrinology. Where there were no randomized controlled trials or specific U.S. FDA labeling for issues in clinical practice, the participating clinical experts utilized their judgment and experience. Every effort was made to achieve consensus among the committee members. Position statements are meant to provide guidance, but they are not to be considered prescriptive for any individual patient and cannot replace the judgment of a clinician.

AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF CLINICAL ENDOCRINOLOGISTS AND AMERICAN COLLEGE OF ENDOCRINOLOGY POSITION STATEMENT ON TESTING FOR AUTONOMIC AND SOMATIC NERVE DYSFUNCTION.

PubMed

Vinik, Aaron I; Camacho, Pauline M; Davidson, Jaime A; Handelsman, Yehuda; Lando, Howard M; Leddy, Anne L; Reddy, Sethu K; Cook, Richard; Spallone, Vicenza; Tesfaye, Solomon; Ziegler, Dan

2017-12-01

This document represents the official position of the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists and the American College of Endocrinology. Where there were no randomized controlled trials or specific U.S. FDA labeling for issues in clinical practice, the participating clinical experts utilized their judgment and experience. Every effort was made to achieve consensus among the committee members. Position statements are meant to provide guidance, but they are not to be considered prescriptive for any individual patient and cannot replace the judgment of a clinician.

AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF CLINICAL ENDOCRINOLOGISTS AND AMERICAN COLLEGE OF ENDOCRINOLOGY POSITION STATEMENT ON THE ASSOCIATION OF TESTOSTERONE AND CARDIOVASCULAR RISK.

PubMed

Goodman, Neil; Guay, Andre; Dandona, Paresh; Dhindsa, Sandeep; Faiman, Charles; Cunningham, Glenn R

2015-09-01

This document represents the official position of the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists and the American College of Endocrinology. Where there were no randomized controlled trials or specific U.S. FDA labeling for issues in clinical practice, the participating clinical experts utilized their judgment and experience. Every effort was made to achieve consensus among the committee members. Position statements are meant to provide guidance, but they are not to be considered prescriptive for any individual patient and cannot replace the judgment of a clinician.

Topical Interface between Managerial Finance and Managerial Accounting.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Norman C.; Swanson, G. A.

1988-01-01

The authors present a method to examine the interfaces between business courses for redundancy. The method is demonstrated by examining the content in managerial finance and managerial accounting courses. A decision model application of analysis, expert judgment, and synthesis are incorporated in this method. (CH)

Evaluating the risk of industrial espionage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bott, T.F.

1998-12-31

A methodology for estimating the relative probabilities of different compromise paths for protected information by insider and visitor intelligence collectors has been developed based on an event-tree analysis of the intelligence collection operation. The analyst identifies target information and ultimate users who might attempt to gain that information. The analyst then uses an event tree to develop a set of compromise paths. Probability models are developed for each of the compromise paths that user parameters based on expert judgment or historical data on security violations. The resulting probability estimates indicate the relative likelihood of different compromise paths and provide anmore » input for security resource allocation. Application of the methodology is demonstrated using a national security example. A set of compromise paths and probability models specifically addressing this example espionage problem are developed. The probability models for hard-copy information compromise paths are quantified as an illustration of the results using parametric values representative of historical data available in secure facilities, supplemented where necessary by expert judgment.« less

Development of self and peer performance assessment on iodometric titration experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nahadi; Siswaningsih, W.; Kusumaningtyas, H.

2018-05-01

This study aims to describe the process in developing of reliable and valid assessment to measure students’ performance on iodometric titration and the effect of the self and peer assessment on students’ performance. The self and peer-instrument provides valuable feedback for the student performance improvement. The developed assessment contains rubric and task for facilitating self and peer assessment. The participants are 24 students at the second-grade student in certain vocational high school in Bandung. The participants divided into two groups. The first 12 students involved in the validity test of the developed assessment, while the remain 12 students participated for the reliability test. The content validity was evaluated based on the judgment experts. Test result of content validity based on judgment expert show that the developed performance assessment instrument categorized as valid on each task with the realibity classified as very good. Analysis of the impact of the self and peer assessment implementation showed that the peer instrument supported the self assessment.

On the Role of Mentalizing Processes in Aesthetic Appreciation: An ERP Study.

PubMed

Beudt, Susan; Jacobsen, Thomas

2015-01-01

We used event-related brain potentials to explore the impact of mental perspective taking on processes of aesthetic appreciation of visual art. Participants (non-experts) were first presented with information about the life and attitudes of a fictitious artist. Subsequently, they were cued trial-wise to make an aesthetic judgment regarding an image depicting a piece of abstract art either from their own perspective or from the imagined perspective of the fictitious artist [i.e., theory of mind (ToM) condition]. Positive self-referential judgments were made more quickly and negative self-referential judgments were made more slowly than the corresponding judgments from the imagined perspective. Event-related potential analyses revealed significant differences between the two tasks both within the preparation period (i.e., during the cue-stimulus interval) and within the stimulus presentation period. For the ToM condition we observed a relative centro-parietal negativity during the preparation period (700-330 ms preceding picture onset) and a relative centro-parietal positivity during the stimulus presentation period (700-1100 ms after stimulus onset). These findings suggest that different subprocesses are involved in aesthetic appreciation and judgment of visual abstract art from one's own vs. from another person's perspective.

Psychiatric Diagnostic Interviews for Children and Adolescents: A Comparative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Angold, Adrian; Erkanli, Alaattin; Copeland, William; Goodman, Robert; Fisher, Prudence W.; Costello, E. Jane

2012-01-01

Objective: To compare examples of three styles of psychiatric interviews for youth: the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children (DISC) ("respondent-based"), the Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Assessment (CAPA) ("interviewer-based"), and the Development and Well-Being Assessment (DAWBA) ("expert judgment"). Method: Roughly equal numbers of…

Understanding and Interpreting Career Decision-Making Difficulties

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Amir, Tamar; Gati, Itamar; Kleiman, Tali

2008-01-01

This research develops and tests a procedure for interpreting individuals' responses in multiscale career assessments, using the Career Decision-Making Difficulties Questionnaire (CDDQ). In Study 1, criteria for ascertaining the credibility of responses were developed, based on the judgments of 39 career-counseling experts. In Study 2, the…

75 FR 56998 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission for Office of Management and Budget Review...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-17

... its expert judgment about consumer behavior, perceptions, and similar information related to consumer... CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY COMMISSION [Docket No. CPSC-2010-0046] Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission for Office of Management and Budget Review; Comment Request; Consumer Focus Groups...

Determinants of conflict detection: a model of risk judgments in air traffic control.

PubMed

Stankovic, Stéphanie; Raufaste, Eric; Averty, Philippe

2008-02-01

A model of conflict judgments in air traffic control (ATC) is proposed. Three horizontal distances determine risk judgments about conflict between two aircraft: (a) Dt(o) is the distance between the crossing of the aircraft trajectories and the first aircraft to reach that point; (b) Dt(h) is the distance between the two aircraft when they are horizontally closest; and (c) Dt(v) is the horizontal distance between the two aircraft when their growing vertical distance reaches 1000 feet. Two experiments tested whether the variables in the model reflect what controllers do. In Experiment 1, 125 certified controllers provided risk judgments about situations in which the model variables were manipulated. Experiment 2 investigated the relationship between the model and expertise by comparing a population of certified controllers with a population of ATC students. Across both experiments, the model accounted for 44% to 50% of the variance in risk judgments by certified controllers (N=161) but only 20% in judgments by ATC students (N=88). There were major individual differences in the predictive power of the model as well as in the contributions of the three variables. In Experiment 2, the model described experts better than novices. The model provided a satisfying account of the data, albeit with substantial individual differences. It is argued that an individual-differences approach is required when investigating the strategies involved in conflict judgment in ATC. These findings should have implications for developing user-friendly interfaces with conflict detection devices and for devising ATC training programs.

Take-the-best in expert-novice decision strategies for residential burglary.

PubMed

Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Dhami, Mandeep K

2009-02-01

We examined the decision strategies and cue use of experts and novices in a consequential domain: crime. Three participant groups decided which of two residential properties was more likely to be burgled, on the basis of eight cues such as location of the property. The two expert groups were experienced burglars and police officers, and the novice group was composed of graduate students. We found that experts' choices were best predicted by a lexicographic heuristic strategy called take-the-best that implies noncompensatory information processing, whereas novices' choices were best predicted by a weighted additive linear strategy that implies compensatory processing. The two expert groups, however, differed in the cues they considered important in making their choices, and the police officers were actually more similar to novices in this regard. These findings extend the literature on judgment, decision making, and expertise, and have implications for criminal justice policy.

Developing a job-exposure matrix with exposure uncertainty from expert elicitation and data modeling.

PubMed

Fischer, Heidi J; Vergara, Ximena P; Yost, Michael; Silva, Michael; Lombardi, David A; Kheifets, Leeka

2017-01-01

Job exposure matrices (JEMs) are tools used to classify exposures for job titles based on general job tasks in the absence of individual level data. However, exposure uncertainty due to variations in worker practices, job conditions, and the quality of data has never been quantified systematically in a JEM. We describe a methodology for creating a JEM which defines occupational exposures on a continuous scale and utilizes elicitation methods to quantify exposure uncertainty by assigning exposures probability distributions with parameters determined through expert involvement. Experts use their knowledge to develop mathematical models using related exposure surrogate data in the absence of available occupational level data and to adjust model output against other similar occupations. Formal expert elicitation methods provided a consistent, efficient process to incorporate expert judgment into a large, consensus-based JEM. A population-based electric shock JEM was created using these methods, allowing for transparent estimates of exposure.

Experiences of Structured Elicitation for Model-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analyses.

PubMed

Soares, Marta O; Sharples, Linda; Morton, Alec; Claxton, Karl; Bojke, Laura

2018-06-01

Empirical evidence supporting the cost-effectiveness estimates of particular health care technologies may be limited, or it may even be missing entirely. In these situations, additional information, often in the form of expert judgments, is needed to reach a decision. There are formal methods to quantify experts' beliefs, termed as structured expert elicitation (SEE), but only limited research is available in support of methodological choices. Perhaps as a consequence, the use of SEE in the context of cost-effectiveness modelling is limited. This article reviews applications of SEE in cost-effectiveness modelling with the aim of summarizing the basis for methodological choices made in each application and recording the difficulties and challenges reported by the authors in the design, conduct, and analyses. The methods used in each application were extracted along with the criteria used to support methodological and practical choices and any issues or challenges discussed in the text. Issues and challenges were extracted using an open field, and then categorised and grouped for reporting. The review demonstrates considerable heterogeneity in methods used, and authors acknowledge great methodological uncertainty in justifying their choices. Specificities of the context area emerging as potentially important in determining further methodological research in elicitation are between- expert variation and its interpretation, the fact that substantive experts in the area may not be trained in quantitative subjects, that judgments are often needed on various parameter types, the need for some form of assessment of validity, and the need for more integration with behavioural research to devise relevant debiasing strategies. This review of experiences of SEE highlights a number of specificities/constraints that can shape the development of guidance and target future research efforts in this area. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Expert Intraoperative Judgment and Decision-Making: Defining the Cognitive Competencies for Safe Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy.

PubMed

Madani, Amin; Watanabe, Yusuke; Feldman, Liane S; Vassiliou, Melina C; Barkun, Jeffrey S; Fried, Gerald M; Aggarwal, Rajesh

2015-11-01

Bile duct injuries from laparoscopic cholecystectomy remain a significant source of morbidity and are often the result of intraoperative errors in perception, judgment, and decision-making. This qualitative study aimed to define and characterize higher-order cognitive competencies required to safely perform a laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Hierarchical and cognitive task analyses for establishing a critical view of safety during laparoscopic cholecystectomy were performed using qualitative methods to map the thoughts and practices that characterize expert performance. Experts with more than 5 years of experience, and who have performed at least 100 laparoscopic cholecystectomies, participated in semi-structured interviews and field observations. Verbal data were transcribed verbatim, supplemented with content from published literature, coded, thematically analyzed using grounded-theory by 2 independent reviewers, and synthesized into a list of items. A conceptual framework was created based on 10 interviews with experts, 9 procedures, and 18 literary sources. Experts included 6 minimally invasive surgeons, 2 hepato-pancreatico-biliary surgeons, and 2 acute care general surgeons (median years in practice, 11 [range 8 to 14]). One hundred eight cognitive elements (35 [32%] related to situation awareness, 47 [44%] involving decision-making, and 26 [24%] action-oriented subtasks) and 75 potential errors were identified and categorized into 6 general themes and 14 procedural tasks. Of the 75 potential errors, root causes were mapped to errors in situation awareness (24 [32%]), decision-making (49 [65%]), or either one (61 [81%]). This study defines the competencies that are essential to establishing a critical view of safety and avoiding bile duct injuries during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. This framework may serve as the basis for instructional design, assessment tools, and quality-control metrics to prevent injuries and promote a culture of patient safety. Copyright © 2015 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

BAYESIAN META-ANALYSIS ON MEDICAL DEVICES: APPLICATION TO IMPLANTABLE CARDIOVERTER DEFIBRILLATORS

PubMed Central

Youn, Ji-Hee; Lord, Joanne; Hemming, Karla; Girling, Alan; Buxton, Martin

2012-01-01

Objectives: The aim of this study is to describe and illustrate a method to obtain early estimates of the effectiveness of a new version of a medical device. Methods: In the absence of empirical data, expert opinion may be elicited on the expected difference between the conventional and modified devices. Bayesian Mixed Treatment Comparison (MTC) meta-analysis can then be used to combine this expert opinion with existing trial data on earlier versions of the device. We illustrate this approach for a new four-pole implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) compared with conventional ICDs, Class III anti-arrhythmic drugs, and conventional drug therapy for the prevention of sudden cardiac death in high risk patients. Existing RCTs were identified from a published systematic review, and we elicited opinion on the difference between four-pole and conventional ICDs from experts recruited at a cardiology conference. Results: Twelve randomized controlled trials were identified. Seven experts provided valid probability distributions for the new ICDs compared with current devices. The MTC model resulted in estimated relative risks of mortality of 0.74 (0.60–0.89) (predictive relative risk [RR] = 0.77 [0.41–1.26]) and 0.83 (0.70–0.97) (predictive RR = 0.84 [0.55–1.22]) with the new ICD therapy compared to Class III anti-arrhythmic drug therapy and conventional drug therapy, respectively. These results showed negligible differences from the preliminary results for the existing ICDs. Conclusions: The proposed method incorporating expert opinion to adjust for a modification made to an existing device may play a useful role in assisting decision makers to make early informed judgments on the effectiveness of frequently modified healthcare technologies. PMID:22559753

The Apocalyptic Premise: Nuclear Arms Debated.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lefever, Ernest W., Ed.; Hunt, E. Stephen, Ed.

This document contains 31 position papers that reflect a wide range of views on nuclear arms policy held by political leaders, religious authorities, scholars, policy experts, journalists, and political activists. Since no judgments are made, the reader is left to decide which arguments are most compelling. Each position paper is arranged into one…

Longitudinal Rater Modeling with Splines

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dobria, Lidia

2011-01-01

Performance assessments rely on the expert judgment of raters for the measurement of the quality of responses, and raters unavoidably introduce error in the scoring process. Defined as the tendency of a rater to assign higher or lower ratings, on average, than those assigned by other raters, even after accounting for differences in examinee…

Victims of Domestic Violence and Front-Line Workers: A Helping Paradigm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peters, Scott W.; Trepal, Heather C.; de Vries, Sabina M.; Day, Sally W.; Leeth, Christopher

2009-01-01

Victims of domestic violence present a challenge to law enforcement and emergency room personnel. The authors propose a helping approach to assist these professionals. This paradigm is composed of: active and empathetic listening, acceptance without judgment, identifying victims' strengths, honoring victims as experts, and the process of leaving…

Applying Comprehensive Environmental Assessment to Research Planning for Multiwalled Carbon Nanotubes: Refinements to Inform Future Stakeholder Engagement

EPA Science Inventory

We previously described our collective judgment methods to engage expert stakeholders in the Comprehensive Environmental Assessment (CEA) workshop process applied to nano-TiO2 and nano-Ag research planning. We identified several lessons learned in engaging stakeholders to identif...

Jazz improvisers' shared understanding: a case study.

PubMed

Schober, Michael F; Spiro, Neta

2014-01-01

To what extent and in what arenas do collaborating musicians need to understand what they are doing in the same way? Two experienced jazz musicians who had never previously played together played three improvisations on a jazz standard ("It Could Happen to You") on either side of a visual barrier. They were then immediately interviewed separately about the performances, their musical intentions, and their judgments of their partner's musical intentions, both from memory and prompted with the audiorecordings of the performances. Statements from both (audiorecorded) interviews as well as statements from an expert listener were extracted and anonymized. Two months later, the performers listened to the recordings and rated the extent to which they endorsed each statement. Performers endorsed statements they themselves had generated more often than statements by their performing partner and the expert listener; their overall level of agreement with each other was greater than chance but moderate to low, with disagreements about the quality of one of the performances and about who was responsible for it. The quality of the performances combined with the disparities in agreement suggest that, at least in this case study, fully shared understanding of what happened is not essential for successful improvisation. The fact that the performers endorsed an expert listener's statements more than their partner's argues against a simple notion that performers' interpretations are always privileged relative to an outsider's.

Jazz improvisers' shared understanding: a case study

PubMed Central

Schober, Michael F.; Spiro, Neta

2014-01-01

To what extent and in what arenas do collaborating musicians need to understand what they are doing in the same way? Two experienced jazz musicians who had never previously played together played three improvisations on a jazz standard (“It Could Happen to You”) on either side of a visual barrier. They were then immediately interviewed separately about the performances, their musical intentions, and their judgments of their partner's musical intentions, both from memory and prompted with the audiorecordings of the performances. Statements from both (audiorecorded) interviews as well as statements from an expert listener were extracted and anonymized. Two months later, the performers listened to the recordings and rated the extent to which they endorsed each statement. Performers endorsed statements they themselves had generated more often than statements by their performing partner and the expert listener; their overall level of agreement with each other was greater than chance but moderate to low, with disagreements about the quality of one of the performances and about who was responsible for it. The quality of the performances combined with the disparities in agreement suggest that, at least in this case study, fully shared understanding of what happened is not essential for successful improvisation. The fact that the performers endorsed an expert listener's statements more than their partner's argues against a simple notion that performers' interpretations are always privileged relative to an outsider's. PMID:25152740

Decision support system and medical liability.

PubMed Central

Allaërt, F. A.; Dusserre, L.

1992-01-01

Expert systems, which are going to be an essential tool in Medicine, are evolving in terms of sophistication of both knowledge representation and types of reasoning models used. The more efficient they are, the more often they will be used and professional liability will be involved. So after giving a short survey of configuration and working of expert systems, the authors will study the liabilities of people building and the using expert systems regarding some various dysfunctions. Of course the expert systems have to be considered only for human support and they should not possess any authority themselves, therefore the doctors must keep in mind that it is their own responsibility and as such keep their judgment and criticism. However other professionals could be involved, if they have participated in the building of expert systems. The different liabilities and the burden of proof are discussed according to some possible dysfunctions. In any case the final proof is inside the expert system by itself through re-computation of data. PMID:1482972

Information order and outcome framing: an assesment of judgment bias in a naturalistic decision-making context.

PubMed

Perrin, B M; Barnett, B J; Walrath, L; Grossman, J D

2001-01-01

Findings that decision makers can come to different conclusions depending on the order in which they receive information have been termed the "information order bias." When trained, experienced individuals exhibit similar behaviors; however, it has been argued that this result is not a bias, but rather, a pattern-matching process. This study provides a critical examination of this claim. It also assesses both experts' susceptibility to an outcome framing bias and the effects of varying task loads on judgment. Using a simulation of state-of-the-art ship defensive systems operated by experienced, active-duty U.S. Navy officers, we found no evidence of a framing bias, while task load had a minor, but systematic effect. The order in which information was received had a significant impact, with the effect being consistent with a judgment bias. Nonetheless, we note that pattern-matching processes, similar to those that produce inferential and reconstructive effects on memory, could also explain our results. Actual or potential applications of this research include decision support system interfaces or training programs that might be developed to reduce judgment bias.

Grey Comprehensive Evaluation of Biomass Power Generation Project Based on Group Judgement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Huicong; Niu, Dongxiao

2017-06-01

The comprehensive evaluation of benefit is an important task needed to be carried out at all stages of biomass power generation projects. This paper proposed an improved grey comprehensive evaluation method based on triangle whiten function. To improve the objectivity of weight calculation result of only reference comparison judgment method, this paper introduced group judgment to the weighting process. In the process of grey comprehensive evaluation, this paper invited a number of experts to estimate the benefit level of projects, and optimized the basic estimations based on the minimum variance principle to improve the accuracy of evaluation result. Taking a biomass power generation project as an example, the grey comprehensive evaluation result showed that the benefit level of this project was good. This example demonstrates the feasibility of grey comprehensive evaluation method based on group judgment for benefit evaluation of biomass power generation project.

On the Role of Mentalizing Processes in Aesthetic Appreciation: An ERP Study

PubMed Central

Beudt, Susan; Jacobsen, Thomas

2015-01-01

We used event-related brain potentials to explore the impact of mental perspective taking on processes of aesthetic appreciation of visual art. Participants (non-experts) were first presented with information about the life and attitudes of a fictitious artist. Subsequently, they were cued trial-wise to make an aesthetic judgment regarding an image depicting a piece of abstract art either from their own perspective or from the imagined perspective of the fictitious artist [i.e., theory of mind (ToM) condition]. Positive self-referential judgments were made more quickly and negative self-referential judgments were made more slowly than the corresponding judgments from the imagined perspective. Event-related potential analyses revealed significant differences between the two tasks both within the preparation period (i.e., during the cue-stimulus interval) and within the stimulus presentation period. For the ToM condition we observed a relative centro-parietal negativity during the preparation period (700–330 ms preceding picture onset) and a relative centro-parietal positivity during the stimulus presentation period (700–1100 ms after stimulus onset). These findings suggest that different subprocesses are involved in aesthetic appreciation and judgment of visual abstract art from one’s own vs. from another person’s perspective. PMID:26617506

Comparing models for quantitative risk assessment: an application to the European Registry of foreign body injuries in children.

PubMed

Berchialla, Paola; Scarinzi, Cecilia; Snidero, Silvia; Gregori, Dario

2016-08-01

Risk Assessment is the systematic study of decisions subject to uncertain consequences. An increasing interest has been focused on modeling techniques like Bayesian Networks since their capability of (1) combining in the probabilistic framework different type of evidence including both expert judgments and objective data; (2) overturning previous beliefs in the light of the new information being received and (3) making predictions even with incomplete data. In this work, we proposed a comparison among Bayesian Networks and other classical Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques such as Neural Networks, Classification Trees, Random Forests and Logistic Regression models. Hybrid approaches, combining both Classification Trees and Bayesian Networks, were also considered. Among Bayesian Networks, a clear distinction between purely data-driven approach and combination of expert knowledge with objective data is made. The aim of this paper consists in evaluating among this models which best can be applied, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Assessment, to assess the safety of children who are exposed to the risk of inhalation/insertion/aspiration of consumer products. The issue of preventing injuries in children is of paramount importance, in particular where product design is involved: quantifying the risk associated to product characteristics can be of great usefulness in addressing the product safety design regulation. Data of the European Registry of Foreign Bodies Injuries formed the starting evidence for risk assessment. Results showed that Bayesian Networks appeared to have both the ease of interpretability and accuracy in making prediction, even if simpler models like logistic regression still performed well. © The Author(s) 2013.

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E

2013-04-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails the interaction of multiple components, including integrating wildfire simulation outputs with geospatial identification of HVRAs and the characterization of fire effects to HVRAs. We present an integrated and systematic risk assessment framework that entails 3 primary analytical components: 1) stochastic wildfire simulation and burn probability modeling to characterize wildfire hazard, 2) expert-based modeling to characterize fire effects, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis to characterize preference structures across at-risk HVRAs. We demonstrate application of this framework for a wildfire risk assessment performed on the Little Belts Assessment Area within the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, United States. We devote particular attention to our approach to eliciting and encapsulating expert judgment, in which we: 1) adhered to a structured process for using expert judgment in ecological risk assessment, 2) used as our expert base local resource scientists and fire/fuels specialists who have a direct connection to the specific landscape and HVRAs in question, and 3) introduced multivariate response functions to characterize fire effects to HVRAs that consider biophysical variables beyond fire behavior. We anticipate that this work will further the state of wildfire risk science and will lead to additional application of risk assessment to inform land management planning. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Dempster-Shafer theory applied to regulatory decision process for selecting safer alternatives to toxic chemicals in consumer products.

PubMed

Park, Sung Jin; Ogunseitan, Oladele A; Lejano, Raul P

2014-01-01

Regulatory agencies often face a dilemma when regulating chemicals in consumer products-namely, that of making decisions in the face of multiple, and sometimes conflicting, lines of evidence. We present an integrative approach for dealing with uncertainty and multiple pieces of evidence in toxics regulation. The integrative risk analytic framework is grounded in the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory that allows the analyst to combine multiple pieces of evidence and judgments from independent sources of information. We apply the integrative approach to the comparative risk assessment of bisphenol-A (BPA)-based polycarbonate and the functionally equivalent alternative, Eastman Tritan copolyester (ETC). Our results show that according to cumulative empirical evidence, the estimated probability of toxicity of BPA is 0.034, whereas the toxicity probability for ETC is 0.097. However, when we combine extant evidence with strength of confidence in the source (or expert judgment), we are guided by a richer interval measure, (Bel(t), Pl(t)). With the D-S derived measure, we arrive at various intervals for BPA, with the low-range estimate at (0.034, 0.250), and (0.097,0.688) for ETC. These new measures allow a reasonable basis for comparison and a justifiable procedure for decision making that takes advantage of multiple sources of evidence. Through the application of D-S theory to toxicity risk assessment, we show how a multiplicity of scientific evidence can be converted into a unified risk estimate, and how this information can be effectively used for comparative assessments to select potentially less toxic alternative chemicals. © 2013 SETAC.

Aligning Items and Achievement Levels: A Study Comparing Expert Judgments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaliski, Pamela; Huff, Kristen; Barry, Carol

2011-01-01

For educational achievement tests that employ multiple-choice (MC) items and aim to reliably classify students into performance categories, it is critical to design MC items that are capable of discriminating student performance according to the stated achievement levels. This is accomplished, in part, by clearly understanding how item design…

Accreditation Is Eyed as a Means to Aid Adjuncts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmidt, Peter

2012-01-01

Can a quality education be provided by any college that relies heavily on adjunct instructors it subjects to lousy working conditions? Some higher-education experts and prominent advocates for adjunct faculty members would like to see accreditors and others who pass judgment on colleges ask questions like that more often. Those concerned about the…

Coping With Nuclear Weapons Policy: How Expert Do You Have To Be?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruina, Jack

1983-01-01

Points out that policy decisions about nuclear weapons evolve from politics, bureaucracy, and technology, indicating that intelligent people can learn enough about technology to make judgments about policy issues. Suggests, however, that much more thinking is necessary to arrive at a coherent perspective about what constitutes nuclear weapons…

Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens - elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures.

PubMed

Boobis, Alan; Flari, Villie; Gosling, John Paul; Hart, Andy; Craig, Peter; Rushton, Lesley; Idahosa-Taylor, Ehi

2013-07-01

The general approach to risk assessment of genotoxic carcinogens has been to advise reduction of exposure to "as low as reasonably achievable/practicable" (ALARA/P). However, whilst this remains the preferred risk management option, it does not provide guidance on the urgency or extent of risk management actions necessary. To address this, the "Margin of Exposure" (MOE) approach has been proposed. The MOE is the ratio between the point of departure for carcinogenesis and estimated human exposure. However, interpretation of the MOE requires implicit or explicit consideration of the shape of the dose-response curve at human relevant exposures. In a structured elicitation exercise, we captured expert opinion on available scientific evidence for low dose-response relationships for genotoxic carcinogens. This allowed assessment of: available evidence for the nature of dose-response relationships at human relevant exposures; the generality of judgments about such dose-response relationships; uncertainties affecting judgments on the nature of such dose-response relationships; and whether this last should differ for different classes of genotoxic carcinogens. Elicitation results reflected the variability in experts' views on the form of the dose-response curve for low dose exposure and major sources of uncertainty affecting the assumption of a linear relationship. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating fuzzy logic, optimization, and GIS for ecological impact assessments.

PubMed

Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A; Juárez, Lourdes; Cruz-Bello, Gustavo

2002-09-01

Appraisal of ecological impacts has been problematic because of the behavior of ecological system and the responses of these systems to human intervention are far from fully understood. While it has been relatively easy to itemize the potential ecological impacts, it has been difficult to arrive at accurate predictions of how these impacts affect populations, communities, or ecosystems. Furthermore, the spatial heterogeneity of ecological systems has been overlooked because its examination is practically impossible through matrix techniques, the most commonly used impact assessment approach. Besides, the public has become increasingly aware of the importance of the EIA in decision-making and thus the interpretation of impact significance is complicated further by the different value judgments of stakeholders. Moreover, impact assessments are carried out with a minimum of data, high uncertainty, and poor conceptual understanding. Hence, the evaluation of ecological impacts entails the integration of subjective and often conflicting judgments from a variety of experts and stakeholders. The purpose of this paper is to present an environmental impact assessment approach based on the integration fuzzy logic, geographical information systems and optimization techniques. This approach enables environmental analysts to deal with the intrinsic imprecision and ambiguity associated with the judgments of experts and stakeholders, the description of ecological systems, and the prediction of ecological impacts. The application of this approach is illustrated through an example, which shows how consensus about impact mitigation can be attained within a conflict resolution framework.

COMFORT scale: a reliable and valid method to measure the amount of stress of ventilated preterm infants.

PubMed

Wielenga, J M; De Vos, R; de Leeuw, R; De Haan, R J

2004-01-01

Assessment of clinimetric properties and diagnostic quality of a stress measurement scale (COMFORT scale). Sample of an open population. Neonatology department (Neonatal Intensive Care Unit), Academic Medical Centre/Emma Children's Hospital, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. One clinical expert and 9 observers observed ventilated premature born babies simultaneously. Criterion validity was assessed by correlating the COMFORT scale with the clinical judgment regarding the amount of stress. Interobserver reliability was assessed on the clinical judgment as well as on the COMFORT scale. Diagnostic qualities were evaluated with a ROC curve. On 19 ventilated prematurely born babies (mean gestational age 30 weeks, mean birth weight 1385 gm), one clinical expert and 9 observers made 30 paired observations. The criterion validity of the COMFORT scale was good (Pearson's r of 0.84). The interobserver reliability of the clinical judgment was very good (weighted Kappa 0.84). The interobserver reliability of each item varied from good to almost perfect (weighted Kappa of 0.64 for muscle tone to 1.00 on heart rate). The reliability of the total COMFORT scale score was satisfying (intra-class correlation coefficient of 0.94). The diagnostic quality of the COMFORT scale was excellent, at a cut-off point of 20 the sensitivity was 100 percent, the specificity was 77 percent, and the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.95. In this first evaluation, the COMFORT scale appears to be a valid and reliable measurement tool to assess the stress of ventilated prematurely born babies.

Integrating Fuzzy Logic, Optimization, and GIS for Ecological Impact Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A.; Juárez, Lourdes; Cruz-Bello, Gustavo

2002-09-01

Appraisal of ecological impacts has been problematic because of the behavior of ecological system and the responses of these systems to human intervention are far from fully understood. While it has been relatively easy to itemize the potential ecological impacts, it has been difficult to arrive at accurate predictions of how these impacts affect populations, communities, or ecosystems. Furthermore, the spatial heterogeneity of ecological systems has been overlooked because its examination is practically impossible through matrix techniques, the most commonly used impact assessment approach. Besides, the public has become increasingly aware of the importance of the EIA in decision-making and thus the interpretation of impact significance is complicated further by the different value judgments of stakeholders. Moreover, impact assessments are carried out with a minimum of data, high uncertainty, and poor conceptual understanding. Hence, the evaluation of ecological impacts entails the integration of subjective and often conflicting judgments from a variety of experts and stakeholders. The purpose of this paper is to present an environmental impact assessment approach based on the integration fuzzy logic, geographical information systems and optimization techniques. This approach enables environmental analysts to deal with the intrinsic imprecision and ambiguity associated with the judgments of experts and stakeholders, the description of ecological systems, and the prediction of ecological impacts. The application of this approach is illustrated through an example, which shows how consensus about impact mitigation can be attained within a conflict resolution framework.

A Critical Meta-Analysis of Lens Model Studies in Human Judgment and Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Kaufmann, Esther; Reips, Ulf-Dietrich; Wittmann, Werner W.

2013-01-01

Achieving accurate judgment (‘judgmental achievement’) is of utmost importance in daily life across multiple domains. The lens model and the lens model equation provide useful frameworks for modeling components of judgmental achievement and for creating tools to help decision makers (e.g., physicians, teachers) reach better judgments (e.g., a correct diagnosis, an accurate estimation of intelligence). Previous meta-analyses of judgment and decision-making studies have attempted to evaluate overall judgmental achievement and have provided the basis for evaluating the success of bootstrapping (i.e., replacing judges by linear models that guide decision making). However, previous meta-analyses have failed to appropriately correct for a number of study design artifacts (e.g., measurement error, dichotomization), which may have potentially biased estimations (e.g., of the variability between studies) and led to erroneous interpretations (e.g., with regards to moderator variables). In the current study we therefore conduct the first psychometric meta-analysis of judgmental achievement studies that corrects for a number of study design artifacts. We identified 31 lens model studies (N = 1,151, k = 49) that met our inclusion criteria. We evaluated overall judgmental achievement as well as whether judgmental achievement depended on decision domain (e.g., medicine, education) and/or the level of expertise (expert vs. novice). We also evaluated whether using corrected estimates affected conclusions with regards to the success of bootstrapping with psychometrically-corrected models. Further, we introduce a new psychometric trim-and-fill method to estimate the effect sizes of potentially missing studies correct psychometric meta-analyses for effects of publication bias. Comparison of the results of the psychometric meta-analysis with the results of a traditional meta-analysis (which only corrected for sampling error) indicated that artifact correction leads to a) an increase in values of the lens model components, b) reduced heterogeneity between studies, and c) increases the success of bootstrapping. We argue that psychometric meta-analysis is useful for accurately evaluating human judgment and show the success of bootstrapping. PMID:24391781

A critical meta-analysis of lens model studies in human judgment and decision-making.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Esther; Reips, Ulf-Dietrich; Wittmann, Werner W

2013-01-01

Achieving accurate judgment ('judgmental achievement') is of utmost importance in daily life across multiple domains. The lens model and the lens model equation provide useful frameworks for modeling components of judgmental achievement and for creating tools to help decision makers (e.g., physicians, teachers) reach better judgments (e.g., a correct diagnosis, an accurate estimation of intelligence). Previous meta-analyses of judgment and decision-making studies have attempted to evaluate overall judgmental achievement and have provided the basis for evaluating the success of bootstrapping (i.e., replacing judges by linear models that guide decision making). However, previous meta-analyses have failed to appropriately correct for a number of study design artifacts (e.g., measurement error, dichotomization), which may have potentially biased estimations (e.g., of the variability between studies) and led to erroneous interpretations (e.g., with regards to moderator variables). In the current study we therefore conduct the first psychometric meta-analysis of judgmental achievement studies that corrects for a number of study design artifacts. We identified 31 lens model studies (N = 1,151, k = 49) that met our inclusion criteria. We evaluated overall judgmental achievement as well as whether judgmental achievement depended on decision domain (e.g., medicine, education) and/or the level of expertise (expert vs. novice). We also evaluated whether using corrected estimates affected conclusions with regards to the success of bootstrapping with psychometrically-corrected models. Further, we introduce a new psychometric trim-and-fill method to estimate the effect sizes of potentially missing studies correct psychometric meta-analyses for effects of publication bias. Comparison of the results of the psychometric meta-analysis with the results of a traditional meta-analysis (which only corrected for sampling error) indicated that artifact correction leads to a) an increase in values of the lens model components, b) reduced heterogeneity between studies, and c) increases the success of bootstrapping. We argue that psychometric meta-analysis is useful for accurately evaluating human judgment and show the success of bootstrapping.

Neurotechnology to accelerate learning: during marksmanship training.

PubMed

Behneman, Adrienne; Berka, Chris; Stevens, Ronald; Vila, Bryan; Tan, Veasna; Galloway, Trysha; Johnson, Robin; Raphael, Giby

2012-01-01

This article explores the psychophysiological metrics during expert and novice performances in marksmanship, combat deadly force judgment and decision making (DFJDM), and interactions of teams. Electroencephalography (EEG) and electrocardiography (ECG) are used to characterize the psychophysiological profiles within all categories. Closed-loop biofeedback was administered to accelerate learning during marksmanship training in which the results show a difference in groups that received feedback compared with the control. During known distance marksmanship and DFJDM scenarios, experts show superior ability to control physiology to meet the demands of the task. Expertise in teaming scenarios is characterized by higher levels of cohesiveness than those seen in novices.

A rule-based expert system applied to moisture durability of building envelopes

DOE PAGES

Boudreaux, Philip R.; Pallin, Simon B.; Accawi, Gina K.; ...

2018-01-09

The moisture durability of an envelope component such as a wall or roof is difficult to predict. Moisture durability depends on all the construction materials used, as well as the climate, orientation, air tightness, and indoor conditions. Modern building codes require more insulation and tighter construction but provide little guidance about how to ensure these energy-efficient assemblies remain moisture durable. Furthermore, as new products and materials are introduced, builders are increasingly uncertain about the long-term durability of their building envelope designs. Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the US Department of Energy’s Building America Program are applying a rule-based expert systemmore » methodology in a web tool to help designers determine whether a given wall design is likely to be moisture durable and provide expert guidance on moisture risk management specific to a wall design and climate. Finally, the expert system is populated with knowledge from both expert judgment and probabilistic hygrothermal simulation results.« less

Mimic expert judgement through automated procedure for selecting rainfall events responsible for shallow landslide: A statistical approach to validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giovanna, Vessia; Luca, Pisano; Carmela, Vennari; Mauro, Rossi; Mario, Parise

2016-01-01

This paper proposes an automated method for the selection of rainfall data (duration, D, and cumulated, E), responsible for shallow landslide initiation. The method mimics an expert person identifying D and E from rainfall records through a manual procedure whose rules are applied according to her/his judgement. The comparison between the two methods is based on 300 D-E pairs drawn from temporal rainfall data series recorded in a 30 days time-lag before the landslide occurrence. Statistical tests, employed on D and E samples considered both paired and independent values to verify whether they belong to the same population, show that the automated procedure is able to replicate the expert pairs drawn by the expert judgment. Furthermore, a criterion based on cumulated distribution functions (CDFs) is proposed to select the most related D-E pairs to the expert one among the 6 drawn from the coded procedure for tracing the empirical rainfall threshold line.

A rule-based expert system applied to moisture durability of building envelopes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boudreaux, Philip R.; Pallin, Simon B.; Accawi, Gina K.

The moisture durability of an envelope component such as a wall or roof is difficult to predict. Moisture durability depends on all the construction materials used, as well as the climate, orientation, air tightness, and indoor conditions. Modern building codes require more insulation and tighter construction but provide little guidance about how to ensure these energy-efficient assemblies remain moisture durable. Furthermore, as new products and materials are introduced, builders are increasingly uncertain about the long-term durability of their building envelope designs. Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the US Department of Energy’s Building America Program are applying a rule-based expert systemmore » methodology in a web tool to help designers determine whether a given wall design is likely to be moisture durable and provide expert guidance on moisture risk management specific to a wall design and climate. Finally, the expert system is populated with knowledge from both expert judgment and probabilistic hygrothermal simulation results.« less

Applications of Principled Search Methods in Climate Influences and Mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glymour, Clark

2005-01-01

Forest and grass fires cause economic losses in the billions of dollars in the U.S. alone. In addition, boreal forests constitute a large carbon store; it has been estimated that, were no burning to occur, an additional 7 gigatons of carbon would be sequestered in boreal soils each century. Effective wildfire suppression requires anticipation of locales and times for which wildfire is most probable, preferably with a two to four week forecast, so that limited resources can be efficiently deployed. The United States Forest Service (USFS), and other experts and agencies have developed several measures of fire risk combining physical principles and expert judgment, and have used them in automated procedures for forecasting fire risk. Forecasting accuracies for some fire risk indices in combination with climate and other variables have been estimated for specific locations, with the value of fire risk index variables assessed by their statistical significance in regressions. In other cases, the MAPSS forecasts [23, 241 for example, forecasting accuracy has been estimated only by simulated data. We describe alternative forecasting methods that predict fire probability by locale and time using statistical or machine learning procedures trained on historical data, and we give comparative assessments of their forecasting accuracy for one fire season year, April- October, 2003, for all U.S. Forest Service lands. Aside from providing an accuracy baseline for other forecasting methods, the results illustrate the interdependence between the statistical significance of prediction variables and the forecasting method used.

Graph-based inductive reasoning.

PubMed

Boumans, Marcel

2016-10-01

This article discusses methods of inductive inferences that are methods of visualizations designed in such a way that the "eye" can be employed as a reliable tool for judgment. The term "eye" is used as a stand-in for visual cognition and perceptual processing. In this paper "meaningfulness" has a particular meaning, namely accuracy, which is closeness to truth. Accuracy consists of precision and unbiasedness. Precision is dealt with by statistical methods, but for unbiasedness one needs expert judgment. The common view at the beginning of the twentieth century was to make the most efficient use of this kind of judgment by representing the data in shapes and forms in such a way that the "eye" can function as a reliable judge to reduce bias. The need for judgment of the "eye" is even more necessary when the background conditions of the observations are heterogeneous. Statistical procedures require a certain minimal level of homogeneity, but the "eye" does not. The "eye" is an adequate tool for assessing topological similarities when, due to heterogeneity of the data, metric assessment is not possible. In fact, graphical assessments precedes measurement, or to put it more forcefully, the graphic method is a necessary prerequisite for measurement. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

76 FR 35072 - Proposed Guidance on Stress Testing for Banking Organizations With More Than $10 Billion in Total...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-15

... ensure that each is conceptually sound. Stress tests usually vary in design and complexity, including the... quantitative tests supported by high-quality data, employ a certain amount of expert or business judgment that... generally, enterprise-wide stress testing involves robust scenario design and effective translation of...

Evaluating the Pedagogic Value of Multi-word Expressions Based on EFL Teachers' and Advanced Learners' Value Judgments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Omidian, Taha; Shahriari, Hesamoddin; Ghonsooly, Behzad

2017-01-01

Multi-word expressions play an important role in second language acquisition, comprehension, and production. Therefore, there is great need for a list of frequent, useful multi-word expressions in language teaching classrooms. Despite multiple attempts at defining multi-word sequences, researchers and teaching experts are divided over the nature…

School Funding and Resource Allocation: How It Impacts Instructional Practices at the School Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wall, Shelly R.

2012-01-01

In the 2006-2007 school year, the State of Wyoming adopted an evidenced-based school funding model. The Wyoming funding model reviewed in this study is considered an evidence-based approach, utilizing expert judgment to determine educational funding. In an evidence-based approach, educational strategies are identified and a dollar figure is…

Differential Diagnosis of Children with Suspected Childhood Apraxia of Speech

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murray, Elizabeth; McCabe, Patricia; Heard, Robert; Ballard, Kirrie J.

2015-01-01

Purpose: The gold standard for diagnosing childhood apraxia of speech (CAS) is expert judgment of perceptual features. The aim of this study was to identify a set of objective measures that differentiate CAS from other speech disorders. Method: Seventy-two children (4-12 years of age) diagnosed with suspected CAS by community speech-language…

BASES OF SCHOOL CHILDREN'S ESTHETIC JUDGMENT AND ESTHETIC PREFERENCE.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

CHILD, IRVIN L.; AND OTHERS

RESEARCH INTO CHILDREN'S ART PREFERENCES AND THEIR RELATION TO THE ESTHETIC MERIT OF ART AS JUDGED BY EXPERTS WAS DESCRIBED IN THIS REPORT THAT IS MADE UP OF NINE ARTICLES, ORIGINALLY PREPARED FOR PUBLICATION IN SCHOLARLY JOURNALS, AND A SUMMARY OF THE FINDINGS. THE GENERAL TOPICS CONSIDERED WERE (1) REASONS CHILDREN GIVE FOR THEIR PREFERENCES,…

Young-stand management options and their implications for wood quality and other values.

Treesearch

R. James Barbour; Richard R. Zaborskeb; Michael H. McClellan; Linda Christian; Donald. Golnick

2005-01-01

This study used the forest vegetation Simulator (FVS), empirical wood product recovery information, and expert judgments to examine volume production and potential revenues for different silvicultural prescriptions grown to rotation ages of 70, 110, and 150 years. Our intention was to provide policymakers and managers with some of the information needed to evaluate the...

Long-Term Outcomes of Speech Therapy for Seven Adolescents with Visual Feedback Technologies: Ultrasound and Electropalatography

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bacsfalvi, Penelope; Bernhardt, Barbara May

2011-01-01

This follow-up study investigated the speech production of seven adolescents and young adults with hearing impairment 2-4 years after speech intervention with ultrasound and electropalatography. Perceptual judgments by seven expert listeners revealed that five out of seven speakers either continued to generalize post-treatment or maintained their…

Scientists as communicators: A randomized experiment to assess public reactions to scientists' social media communication along the science-advocacy continuum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotcher, J.; Vraga, E.; Myers, T.; Stenhouse, N.; Roser-Renouf, C.; Maibach, E.

2014-12-01

The question of what type of role scientists, or experts more generally, should play in policy debates is a perennial point of discussion within the scientific community. It is often thought that communication containing some form of policy advocacy is likely to compromise the perceived credibility of the individual scientist engaged in such behavior, with the possibility that it may also harm the credibility of the scientific community more broadly. Rather than evaluating statements in a binary fashion as representing either pure objectivity or pure advocacy, one recent model proposes that public communication by scientists should instead be thought of as falling along a continuum based upon the extent of normative judgment implicit in a statement. This approach predicts that as the extent of normative judgment increases, it poses a relatively greater risk to a scientist's perceived credibility. Though such a model is conceptually useful, little empirical social science research has systematically explored how individuals form judgments about different types of advocacy to examine common assumptions about the relative risks associated with such behaviors. In this presentation, we will report results from a national online experiment (N=1200) that examines audience responses to fictional social media posts written by either a climate scientist or a television weathercaster. Following the above model, the posts represent differing degrees of advocacy defined by the extent of normative judgment implicit in each statement. In instances where a specific policy is advocated, we examine whether participants' reactions are shaped by the extent to which the policy mentioned is congruent with one's political ideology. We hope this study will serve as an exemplar of applied science communication research that can begin to help inform scientists and other experts about the potential implications of different communication options they may choose from in deciding how to engage with policy.

Forensic comparison and matching of fingerprints: using quantitative image measures for estimating error rates through understanding and predicting difficulty.

PubMed

Kellman, Philip J; Mnookin, Jennifer L; Erlikhman, Gennady; Garrigan, Patrick; Ghose, Tandra; Mettler, Everett; Charlton, David; Dror, Itiel E

2014-01-01

Latent fingerprint examination is a complex task that, despite advances in image processing, still fundamentally depends on the visual judgments of highly trained human examiners. Fingerprints collected from crime scenes typically contain less information than fingerprints collected under controlled conditions. Specifically, they are often noisy and distorted and may contain only a portion of the total fingerprint area. Expertise in fingerprint comparison, like other forms of perceptual expertise, such as face recognition or aircraft identification, depends on perceptual learning processes that lead to the discovery of features and relations that matter in comparing prints. Relatively little is known about the perceptual processes involved in making comparisons, and even less is known about what characteristics of fingerprint pairs make particular comparisons easy or difficult. We measured expert examiner performance and judgments of difficulty and confidence on a new fingerprint database. We developed a number of quantitative measures of image characteristics and used multiple regression techniques to discover objective predictors of error as well as perceived difficulty and confidence. A number of useful predictors emerged, and these included variables related to image quality metrics, such as intensity and contrast information, as well as measures of information quantity, such as the total fingerprint area. Also included were configural features that fingerprint experts have noted, such as the presence and clarity of global features and fingerprint ridges. Within the constraints of the overall low error rates of experts, a regression model incorporating the derived predictors demonstrated reasonable success in predicting objective difficulty for print pairs, as shown both in goodness of fit measures to the original data set and in a cross validation test. The results indicate the plausibility of using objective image metrics to predict expert performance and subjective assessment of difficulty in fingerprint comparisons.

Attribution of global foodborne disease to specific foods: Findings from a World Health Organization structured expert elicitation.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Sandra; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Aspinall, Willy; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie; Angulo, Frederick; Gibb, Herman; Kirk, Martyn; Lake, Robin; Speybroeck, Niko; Torgerson, Paul; Hald, Tine

2017-01-01

Recently the World Health Organization, Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) estimated that 31 foodborne diseases (FBDs) resulted in over 600 million illnesses and 420,000 deaths worldwide in 2010. Knowing the relative role importance of different foods as exposure routes for key hazards is critical to preventing illness. This study reports the findings of a structured expert elicitation providing globally comparable food source attribution estimates for 11 major FBDs in each of 14 world subregions. We used Cooke's Classical Model to elicit and aggregate judgments of 73 international experts. Judgments were elicited from each expert individually and aggregated using both equal and performance weights. Performance weighted results are reported as they increased the informativeness of estimates, while retaining accuracy. We report measures of central tendency and uncertainty bounds on food source attribution estimate. For some pathogens we see relatively consistent food source attribution estimates across subregions of the world; for others there is substantial regional variation. For example, for non-typhoidal salmonellosis, pork was of minor importance compared to eggs and poultry meat in the American and African subregions, whereas in the European and Western Pacific subregions the importance of these three food sources were quite similar. Our regional results broadly agree with estimates from earlier European and North American food source attribution research. As in prior food source attribution research, we find relatively wide uncertainty bounds around our median estimates. We present the first worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific foodborne diseases attributable to specific food exposure routes. While we find substantial uncertainty around central tendency estimates, we believe these estimates provide the best currently available basis on which to link FBDs and specific foods in many parts of the world, providing guidance for policy actions to control FBDs.

Authority dependence and judgments of utilitarian harm.

PubMed

Piazza, Jared; Sousa, Paulo; Holbrook, Colin

2013-09-01

Three studies tested the conditions under which people judge utilitarian harm to be authority dependent (i.e., whether its right or wrongness depends on the ruling of an authority). In Study 1, participants judged the right or wrongness of physical abuse when used as an interrogation method anticipated to yield useful information for preventing future terrorist attacks. The ruling of the military authority towards the harm was manipulated (prohibited vs. prescribed) and found to significantly influence judgments of the right or wrongness of inflicting harm. Study 2 established a boundary condition with regards to the influence of authority, which was eliminated when the utility of the harm was definitely obtained rather than forecasted. Finally, Study 3 replicated the findings of Studies 1-2 in a completely different context-an expert committee's ruling about the harming of chimpanzees for biomedical research. These results are discussed as they inform ongoing debates regarding the role of authority in moderating judgments of complex and simple harm. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scheduling Software for Complex Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2006-01-01

Preparing a vehicle and its payload for a single launch is a complex process that involves thousands of operations. Because the equipment and facilities required to carry out these operations are extremely expensive and limited in number, optimal assignment and efficient use are critically important. Overlapping missions that compete for the same resources, ground rules, safety requirements, and the unique needs of processing vehicles and payloads destined for space impose numerous constraints that, when combined, require advanced scheduling. Traditional scheduling systems use simple algorithms and criteria when selecting activities and assigning resources and times to each activity. Schedules generated by these simple decision rules are, however, frequently far from optimal. To resolve mission-critical scheduling issues and predict possible problem areas, NASA historically relied upon expert human schedulers who used their judgment and experience to determine where things should happen, whether they will happen on time, and whether the requested resources are truly necessary.

Identifying new persistent and bioaccumulative organics among chemicals in commerce.

PubMed

Howard, Philip H; Muir, Derek C G

2010-04-01

The goal of this study was to identify commercial chemicals that might be persistent and bioaccumulative (P&B) and that were not being considered in current Great Lakes, North American, and Arctic contaminant measurement programs. We combined the Canadian Domestic Substance List (DSL), a list of 3059 substances of "unknown or variable composition complex reaction products and biological materials" (UVCBs), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) Inventory Update Rule (IUR) database for years 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2006 yielding a database of 22263 commercial chemicals. From that list, 610 chemicals were identified by estimates from U.S EPA EPISuite software and using expert judgment. This study has yielded some interesting and probable P&B chemicals that should be considered for further study. Recent studies, following up our initial reports and presentations on this work, have confirmed the presence of many of these chemicals in the environment.

Pushing and pulling: an assessment tool for occupational health and safety practitioners.

PubMed

Lind, Carl Mikael

2018-03-01

A tool has been developed for supporting practitioners when assessing manual pushing and pulling operations based on an initiative by two global companies in the manufacturing industry. The aim of the tool is to support occupational health and safety practitioners in risk assessment and risk management of pushing and pulling operations in the manufacturing and logistics industries. The tool is based on a nine-multiplier equation that includes a wide range of factors affecting an operator's health risk and capacity in pushing and pulling. These multipliers are based on psychophysical, physiological and biomechanical studies in combination with judgments from an expert group consisting of senior researchers and ergonomists. In order to consider usability, more than 50 occupational health and safety practitioners (e.g., ergonomists, managers, safety representatives and production personnel) participated in the development of the tool. An evaluation by 22 ergonomists supports that the push/pull tool is user friendly in general.

Development and evaluation of RAMP I - a practitioner's tool for screening of musculoskeletal disorder risk factors in manual handling.

PubMed

Lind, Carl Mikael; Forsman, Mikael; Rose, Linda Maria

2017-10-16

RAMP I is a screening tool developed to support practitioners in screening for work-related musculoskeletal disorder risk factors related to manual handling. RAMP I, which is part of the RAMP tool, is based on research-based studies combined with expert group judgments. More than 80 practitioners participated in the development of RAMP I. The tool consists of dichotomous assessment items grouped into seven categories. Acceptable reliability was found for a majority of the assessment items for 15 practitioners who were given 1 h of training. The usability evaluation points to RAMP I being usable for screening for musculoskeletal disorder risk factors, i.e., usable for assessing risks, being usable as a decision base, having clear results and that the time needed for an assessment is acceptable. It is concluded that RAMP I is a usable tool for practitioners.

Identifying species conservation strategies to reduce disease-associated declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, Brian D.; Converse, Sarah J.; Muths, Erin L.; Crockett, Harry J.; Mosher, Brittany A.; Bailey, Larissa L.

2018-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a salient threat to many animal taxa, causing local and global extinctions, altering communities and ecosystem function. The EID chytridiomycosis is a prominent driver of amphibian declines, which is caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). To guide conservation policy, we developed a predictive decision-analytic model that combines empirical knowledge of host-pathogen metapopulation dynamics with expert judgment regarding effects of management actions, to select from potential conservation strategies. We apply our approach to a boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) and Bd system, identifying optimal strategies that balance tradeoffs in maximizing toad population persistence and landscape-level distribution, while considering costs. The most robust strategy is expected to reduce the decline of toad breeding sites from 53% to 21% over 50 years. Our findings are incorporated into management policy to guide conservation planning. Our online modeling application provides a template for managers of other systems challenged by EIDs.

Decision Support System (DSS) for MSMA Integrated Stormwater Management Ecohydrology for Sustainable Green Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidek, L. M.; Mohiyaden, H. A.; Haris, H.; Basri, H.; Muda, Z. C.; Roseli, Z. A.; Norlida, M. D.

2016-03-01

Rapid urbanization has known to have several adverse impacts towards hydrological cycle due to increasing impervious surface and degradation of water quality in stormwater runoff. In the past, urban waterways have been confined to narrow river corridors with the channels canalised and concrete and other synthetic materials forming the bed and banks of the river. Apart from that, stormwater pollutants such as litter, debris and sediments in drainage system are common problems that can lead to flooding and the degradation of water quality. To solve this problem, implementing stormwater Best Management Practices (BMPs) proves very promising due to its near natural characteristics and multiple effects on the drainage of stormwater runoff in urban areas. This judgment of using BMPs depends on not only relevant theoretical considerations, but also a large amount of practical experience and the availability of relevant data, as well. To fulfil this task, the so-called Decision Support System (DSS) in MSMA Design Aid and Database system are able to assist engineers and developers in management and improvement of water quantity and quality entering urban rivers from urban regions. This system is also helpful when an expert level judgment procure some repetitive and large amount of cases, like in the planning of stormwater BMPs systems for an entire city catchment. One of the advantages of an expert system is that it provides automation of expert-level judgement using availability of checking tools system.

Validation of consensus panel diagnosis in dementia.

PubMed

Gabel, Matthew J; Foster, Norman L; Heidebrink, Judith L; Higdon, Roger; Aizenstein, Howard J; Arnold, Steven E; Barbas, Nancy R; Boeve, Bradley F; Burke, James R; Clark, Christopher M; Dekosky, Steven T; Farlow, Martin R; Jagust, William J; Kawas, Claudia H; Koeppe, Robert A; Leverenz, James B; Lipton, Anne M; Peskind, Elaine R; Turner, R Scott; Womack, Kyle B; Zamrini, Edward Y

2010-12-01

The clinical diagnosis of dementing diseases largely depends on the subjective interpretation of patient symptoms. Consensus panels are frequently used in research to determine diagnoses when definitive pathologic findings are unavailable. Nevertheless, research on group decision making indicates that many factors can adversely affect panel performance. To determine conditions that improve consensus panel diagnosis. Comparison of neuropathologic diagnoses with individual and consensus panel diagnoses based on clinical scenarios only, fludeoxyglucose F 18 positron emission tomography images only, and scenarios plus images. Expert and trainee individual and consensus panel deliberations using a modified Delphi method in a pilot research study of the diagnostic utility of fludeoxyglucose F 18 positron emission tomography. Forty-five patients with pathologically confirmed Alzheimer disease or frontotemporal dementia. Statistical measures of diagnostic accuracy, agreement, and confidence for individual raters and panelists before and after consensus deliberations. The consensus protocol using trainees and experts surpassed the accuracy of individual expert diagnoses when clinical information elicited diverse judgments. In these situations, consensus was 3.5 times more likely to produce positive rather than negative changes in the accuracy and diagnostic certainty of individual panelists. A rule that forced group consensus was at least as accurate as majority and unanimity rules. Using a modified Delphi protocol to arrive at a consensus diagnosis is a reasonable substitute for pathologic information. This protocol improves diagnostic accuracy and certainty when panelist judgments differ and is easily adapted to other research and clinical settings while avoiding the potential pitfalls of group decision making.

Validation of science virtual test to assess 8th grade students' critical thinking on living things and environmental sustainability theme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusyati, Lilit; Firman, Harry

2017-05-01

This research was motivated by the importance of multiple-choice questions that indicate the elements and sub-elements of critical thinking and implementation of computer-based test. The method used in this research was descriptive research for profiling the validation of science virtual test to measure students' critical thinking in junior high school. The participant is junior high school students of 8th grade (14 years old) while science teacher and expert as the validators. The instrument that used as a tool to capture the necessary data are sheet of an expert judgment, sheet of legibility test, and science virtual test package in multiple choice form with four possible answers. There are four steps to validate science virtual test to measure students' critical thinking on the theme of "Living Things and Environmental Sustainability" in 7th grade Junior High School. These steps are analysis of core competence and basic competence based on curriculum 2013, expert judgment, legibility test and trial test (limited and large trial test). The test item criterion based on trial test are accepted, accepted but need revision, and rejected. The reliability of the test is α = 0.747 that categorized as `high'. It means the test instruments used is reliable and high consistency. The validity of Rxy = 0.63 means that the validity of the instrument was categorized as `high' according to interpretation value of Rxy (correlation).

Comparative effectiveness research: what to do when experts disagree about risks.

PubMed

Lie, Reidar K; Chan, Francis K L; Grady, Christine; Ng, Vincent H; Wendler, David

2017-06-19

Ethical issues related to comparative effectiveness research, or research that compares existing standards of care, have recently received considerable attention. In this paper we focus on how Ethics Review Committees (ERCs) should evaluate the risks of comparative effectiveness research. We discuss what has been a prominent focus in the debate about comparative effectiveness research, namely that it is justified when "nothing is known" about the comparative effectiveness of the available alternatives. We argue that this focus may be misleading. Rather, we should focus on the fact that some experts believe that the evidence points in favor of one intervention, whereas other experts believe that the evidence favors the alternative(s). We will then introduce a case that illustrates this point, and based on that, discuss how ERCs should deal with such cases of expert disagreement. We argue that ERCs have a duty to assess the range of expert opinions and based on that assessment arrive at a risk judgment about the study under consideration. We also argue that assessment of expert disagreement is important for the assignment of risk level to a clinical trial: what is the basis for expert opinions, how strong is the evidence appealed to by various experts, and how can clinical trial monitoring affect the possible increased risk of clinical trial participation.

A New Perspective on Neonatal Smiling: Differences between the Judgments of Expert Coders and Naive Observers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dondi, Marco; Messinger, Daniel; Colle, Marta; Tabasso, Alessia; Simion, Francesca; Barba, Beatrice Dalla; Fogel, Alan

2007-01-01

To better understand the form and recognizability of neonatal smiling, 32 newborns (14 girls; M = 25.6 hr) were videorecorded in the behavioral states of alertness, drowsiness, active sleep, and quiet sleep. Baby Facial Action Coding System coding of both lip corner raising (simple or non-Duchenne) and lip corner raising with cheek raising…

Methodology for characterizing potential adversaries of Nuclear Material Safeguards Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirkwood, C.W.; Pollock, S.M.

1978-11-01

The results are described of a study by Woodward--Clyde Consultants to assist the University of California Lawrence Livermore Laboratory in the development of methods to analyze and evaluate Nuclear Material Safeguards (NMS) Systems. The study concentrated on developing a methodology to assist experts in describing, in quantitative form, their judgments about the characteristics of potential adversaries of NMS Systems.

77 FR 4973 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 90-Day Finding on a Petition to List the San...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-01

... arboreal lichens and vegetation (Hall 1991, p. 616, Pyare and Longland 2001, p. 684; Smith 2007, p. 869...'s habitat seems to be related to conditions that are optimal for nesting and provide an ample supply... nonclimate conditions (e.g., habitat fragmentation). We use our expert judgment to weigh relevant information...

Consensus Theory in Expert Systems: An Adaptive Inference Framework and Application to Image Understanding

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-12-01

argument schema based on the one devel- oped by Toulmin et al. (1984). In Toulmin’s schema (Figure 4-2), a claim, or 3 conclusion whose merits we are seeking...probability judgment. Cognitive Science, 1985, 9, 309-339. Toulmin , S., Rieke, R., and Janik, A. An introduction to reasoning (2nd Edition). NY

Multi-Year Revenue and Expenditure Forecasting for Small Municipal Governments.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-03-01

Management Audit Econometric Revenue Forecast Gap and Impact Analysis Deterministic Expenditure Forecast Municipal Forecasting Municipal Budget Formlto...together with a multi-year revenue and expenditure forecasting model for the City of Monterey, California. The Monterey model includes an econometric ...65 5 D. FORECAST BASED ON THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL ------- 67 E. FORECAST BASED ON EXPERT JUDGMENT AND TREND ANALYSIS

Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach Using Expert Judgment, Volume I: Results for the San Francisco Estuary Partnership (External Review Draft)

EPA Science Inventory

As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared this draft report exploring a new metho...

Gauging Item Alignment through Online Systems While Controlling for Rater Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Daniel; Irvin, Shawn; Alonzo, Julie; Tindal, Gerald A.

2015-01-01

The alignment of test items to content standards is critical to the validity of decisions made from standards-based tests. Generally, alignment is determined based on judgments made by a panel of content experts with either ratings averaged or via a consensus reached through discussion. When the pool of items to be reviewed is large, or the…

Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach Using Expert Judgment, Volume I: Results for the San Francisco Estuary Partnership (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared this draft report exploring a new metho...

The Alignment of easyCBM[R] Math Measures to Curriculum Standards. Technical Report #1002

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nese, Joseph F. T.; Lai, Cheng-Fei; Anderson, Daniel; Park, Bitnara Jasmine; Tindal, Gerald; Alonzo, Julie

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the alignment of the easyCBM[R] mathematics benchmark and progress monitoring measures to the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics "Curriculum Focal Points" (NCTM, 2006). Based on Webb's alignment model (1997, 2002), we collected expert judgments on individual math items across a sampling of forms…

Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

1976-01-01

A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

Do metacognitive judgments alter memory performance beyond the benefits of retrieval practice? A comment on and replication attempt of Dougherty, Scheck, Nelson, and Narens (2005).

PubMed

Dougherty, Michael R; Robey, Alison M; Buttaccio, Daniel

2018-05-01

A central question in the metacognitive literature concerns whether the act of making a metacognitive judgment alters one's memory for the information about which the judgment was made. Dougherty, Scheck, Nelson, and Narens (2005, Memory & Cognition, 33(6), 1096-1115) attempted to address this question by having participants make either retrospective confidence judgments (RCJs; i.e., evaluations of past retrieval success), judgments of learning (JOLs; i.e., predictions of future retrieval success), or no explicit judgments. When comparing final retrieval accuracy they found that accuracy was greater for items where participants had made JOLs compared with items that received RCJs or no judgment, suggesting that simply making a JOL can improve later memory performance. The present article presents results from four separate replication attempts that fail to duplicate this finding. Combined results provide compelling evidence that making a metacognitive judgment, regardless of the type, has no impact on later memory performance above and beyond retrieval practice.

Appropriate Use of Drug Testing in Clinical Addiction Medicine.

PubMed

Jarvis, Margaret; Williams, Jessica; Hurford, Matthew; Lindsay, Dawn; Lincoln, Piper; Giles, Leila; Luongo, Peter; Safarian, Taleen

: Biological drug testing is a tool that provides information about an individual's recent substance use. Like any tool, its value depends on using it correctly; that is, on selecting the right test for the right person at the right time. This document is intended to clarify appropriate clinical use of drug testing in addiction medicine and aid providers in their decisions about drug testing for the identification, diagnosis, treatment, and recovery of patients with, or at risk for, addiction. The RAND Corporation (RAND)/University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Appropriateness Method (RAM) process for combining scientific evidence with the collective judgment of experts was used to identify appropriate clinical practices and highlight areas where research is needed. Although consensus panels and expert groups have offered guidance on the use of drug testing for patients with addiction, very few addressed considerations for patients across settings and in different levels of care. This document will focus primarily on patients in addiction treatment and recovery, where drug testing is used to assess patients for a substance use disorder, monitor the effectiveness of a treatment plan, and support recovery. Inasmuch as the scope includes the recognition of addiction, which often occurs in general healthcare settings, selected special populations at risk for addiction visiting these settings are briefly included.

Perspectives on knowledge in engineering design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rasdorf, W. J.

1985-01-01

Various perspectives are given of the knowledge currently used in engineering design, specifically dealing with knowledge-based expert systems (KBES). Constructing an expert system often reveals inconsistencies in domain knowledge while formalizing it. The types of domain knowledge (facts, procedures, judgments, and control) differ from the classes of that knowledge (creative, innovative, and routine). The feasible tasks for expert systems can be determined based on these types and classes of knowledge. Interpretive tasks require reasoning about a task in light of the knowledge available, where generative tasks create potential solutions to be tested against constraints. Only after classifying the domain by type and level can the engineer select a knowledge-engineering tool for the domain being considered. The critical features to be weighed after classification are knowledge representation techniques, control strategies, interface requirements, compatibility with traditional systems, and economic considerations.

Marketing practitioner’s tacit knowledge acquisition using Repertory Grid Technique (RTG)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azmi, Afdhal; Adriman, Ramzi

2018-05-01

The tacit knowledge of Marketing practitioner’s experts is excellent resources and priceless. It takes into account their experiential, skill, ideas, belief systems, insight and speculation into management decision-making. This expertise is an individual intuitive judgment and personal shortcuts to complete the work efficiently. Tacit knowledge of Marketing practitioner’s experts is one of best problem solutions in marketing strategy, environmental analysis, product management and partner’s relationship. This paper proposes the acquisition method of tacit knowledge from Marketing practitioner’s using Repertory Grid Technique (RGT). The RGT is a software application for tacit acquisition knowledge to provide a systematic approach to capture and acquire the constructs from an individual. The result shows the understanding of RGT could make TKE and MPE get a good result in capturing and acquiring tacit knowledge of Marketing practitioner’s experts.

ERP to chess stimuli reveal expert-novice differences in the amplitudes of N2 and P3 components.

PubMed

Wright, Michael J; Gobet, Fernand; Chassy, Philippe; Ramchandani, Payal Nanik

2013-10-01

ERP experiments were conducted to analyze the underlying neural events when chess players make simple judgments of a board position. Fourteen expert players and 14 age-matched novices viewed, for each of four tasks, 128 unique positions on a mini (4 × 4) chess board each presented for 0.5 s. The tasks were to respond: (a) if white king was in check, (b) if black knight was present, (c) if white king was not in check, and (d) if no black knight was present. Experts showed an enhanced N2 with check targets and a larger P3 with knight targets, relative to novices. Expert-novice differences in posterior N2 began as early as 240 ms on check-related searches. Results were consistent with the view that prolonged N2 components reflect matching of current perceptual input to memory, and thus are sensitive to experts' superior pattern recognition and memory retrieval of chunks. Copyright © 2013 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Personal Injury and Property Damage in the Moral Judgments of Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elkind, David; Dabek, Ruth F.

1977-01-01

A total of 72 elementary school students responded to six moral judgment story pairs which corresponded to all the possible combinations of intentionality (intentional/unintentional) and type of damage (personal injury/property damage). (Author/JMB)

Application of fuzzy fault tree analysis based on modified fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS for fire and explosion in the process industry.

PubMed

Yazdi, Mohammad; Korhan, Orhan; Daneshvar, Sahand

2018-05-09

This study aimed at establishing fault tree analysis (FTA) using expert opinion to compute the probability of an event. To find the probability of the top event (TE), all probabilities of the basic events (BEs) should be available when the FTA is drawn. In this case, employing expert judgment can be used as an alternative to failure data in an awkward situation. The fuzzy analytical hierarchy process as a standard technique is used to give a specific weight to each expert, and fuzzy set theory is engaged for aggregating expert opinion. In this regard, the probability of BEs will be computed and, consequently, the probability of the TE obtained using Boolean algebra. Additionally, to reduce the probability of the TE in terms of three parameters (safety consequences, cost and benefit), the importance measurement technique and modified TOPSIS was employed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated with a real-life case study.

Mobile cosmetics advisor: an imaging based mobile service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatti, Nina; Baker, Harlyn; Chao, Hui; Clearwater, Scott; Harville, Mike; Jain, Jhilmil; Lyons, Nic; Marguier, Joanna; Schettino, John; Süsstrunk, Sabine

2010-01-01

Selecting cosmetics requires visual information and often benefits from the assessments of a cosmetics expert. In this paper we present a unique mobile imaging application that enables women to use their cell phones to get immediate expert advice when selecting personal cosmetic products. We derive the visual information from analysis of camera phone images, and provide the judgment of the cosmetics specialist through use of an expert system. The result is a new paradigm for mobile interactions-image-based information services exploiting the ubiquity of camera phones. The application is designed to work with any handset over any cellular carrier using commonly available MMS and SMS features. Targeted at the unsophisticated consumer, it must be quick and easy to use, not requiring download capabilities or preplanning. Thus, all application processing occurs in the back-end system and not on the handset itself. We present the imaging pipeline technology and a comparison of the services' accuracy with respect to human experts.

Preliminary Classification of Army and Navy Entry-Level Occupations by the Holland Coding System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-12-01

Dictionary of Holland Occupational Codes (DOHC; see Gottfredson , Holland, & Ogawa, 1982) either directly or through expert judgment. Results...publications: The Dictionary of Holland Occupational Codes (DHOC; Gottfredson , Holland, & Ogawa, 192) and The Occupations Finder (Holland, 1978). The...occupational categories ( Gottfredson et al., 1982). The agreement between the first letters codes obtained from the 1977 Occupations Finder and the

Australian Defense.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-12-01

the Joint Intelligence Organization ( JIO ) came into existence. It was only an analysis and information agency and did not collect intelligence. It was...34to provide expert technical analysis and the best kind of judgment on kinds of security problems that might arise." 3 The JIO brought sections of the... JIO char er detailed its function of intelligence assessments "on military, economic, scientific, and technical matters affecting Australia’s defence

An Empirical Examination of the Permanence of Performance and Response Patterns Generated by a CRM-Reading Produced by Expert Judgment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hess, Richard Wayne

Stability of performance on a criterion referenced reading test was examined for 413 students in grades one through six. The test, which measures 367 behavioral reading objectives, was administered twice to each student, with an interval of at least three weeks between the first and second administrations. Three statistical indices of permanence…

Development and Validation of the Delinquency Reduction Outcome Profile (DROP) in a Sample of Incarcerated Juveniles: A Multiconstruct/Multisituational Scoring Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barbot, Baptiste; Haeffel, Gerald J.; Macomber, Donna; Hart, Lesley; Chapman, John; Grigorenko, Elena L.

2012-01-01

The "Delinquency Reduction Outcome Profile" ("DROP") is a novel situational-judgment test (SJT) designed to measure social decision making in delinquent youth. The DROP includes both a typical SJT scoring method, which captures the deviation of an individual response from an "ideal" expert-based response pattern, as well as a novel…

Analyzing Environmental Policies for Chlorinated Solvents with a Model of Markets and Regulations

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-01-01

electronics, aerospace, fabricated metal products, and dry cleaning depend heavily on chlorinated solvents in their production processes . For example...production processes . The second of the model’s components is a group of economic equations that represents all of the solvent substitutions in...Instead, the process for numerically specifying the substitution parameters involves eliciting expert judgments and then normalizing the parameters

Recognizing Uncertainty in the Q-Matrix via a Bayesian Extension of the DINA Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeCarlo, Lawrence T.

2012-01-01

In the typical application of a cognitive diagnosis model, the Q-matrix, which reflects the theory with respect to the skills indicated by the items, is assumed to be known. However, the Q-matrix is usually determined by expert judgment, and so there can be uncertainty about some of its elements. Here it is shown that this uncertainty can be…

Assessing the chances of success: naïve statistics versus kind experience.

PubMed

Hogarth, Robin M; Mukherjee, Kanchan; Soyer, Emre

2013-01-01

Additive integration of information is ubiquitous in judgment and has been shown to be effective even when multiplicative rules of probability theory are prescribed. We explore the generality of these findings in the context of estimating probabilities of success in contests. We first define a normative model of these probabilities that takes account of relative skill levels in contests where only a limited number of entrants can win. We then report 4 experiments using a scenario about a competition. Experiments 1 and 2 both elicited judgments of probabilities, and, although participants' responses demonstrated considerable variability, their mean judgments provide a good fit to a simple linear model. Experiment 3 explored choices. Most participants entered most contests and showed little awareness of appropriate probabilities. Experiment 4 investigated effects of providing aids to calculate probabilities, specifically, access to expert advice and 2 simulation tools. With these aids, estimates were accurate and decisions varied appropriately with economic consequences. We discuss implications by considering when additive decision rules are dysfunctional, the interpretation of overconfidence based on contest-entry behavior, and the use of aids to help people make better decisions.

Mistakes and missed opportunities regarding cosmetic surgery and conscientious objection.

PubMed

Saad, Toni C

2017-04-24

In her paper 'Cosmetic surgery and conscientious objection', Minerva rightly identifies cosmetic surgery as an interesting test case for the question of conscientious objection in medicine. Her treatment of this important subject, however, seems problematic. It is argued that Minerva's suggestion that a doctor has a prima facie duty to satisfy patient preferences even against his better clinical judgment, which we call Patient Preference Absolutism, must be regarded with scepticism. This is because (1) it overlooks an important distinction regarding autonomy's meaning and place in clinical practice, and (2) it makes obsolete the important concepts of expert clinical judgment and beneficence. Finally, we discuss two ideas which emerge from consideration of cosmetic surgery in relation to conscientious objection. These are the possible analogy between clinical judgment and conscientious objection, and the possible role the goals of medicine can play in defining the scope of conscientious objection. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Implicit and Explicit Representations of Hand Position in Tool Use

PubMed Central

Rand, Miya K.; Heuer, Herbert

2013-01-01

Understanding the interactions of visual and proprioceptive information in tool use is important as it is the basis for learning of the tool's kinematic transformation and thus skilled performance. This study investigated how the CNS combines seen cursor positions and felt hand positions under a visuo-motor rotation paradigm. Young and older adult participants performed aiming movements on a digitizer while looking at rotated visual feedback on a monitor. After each movement, they judged either the proprioceptively sensed hand direction or the visually sensed cursor direction. We identified asymmetric mutual biases with a strong visual dominance. Furthermore, we found a number of differences between explicit and implicit judgments of hand directions. The explicit judgments had considerably larger variability than the implicit judgments. The bias toward the cursor direction for the explicit judgments was about twice as strong as for the implicit judgments. The individual biases of explicit and implicit judgments were uncorrelated. Biases of these judgments exhibited opposite sequential effects. Moreover, age-related changes were also different between these judgments. The judgment variability was decreased and the bias toward the cursor direction was increased with increasing age only for the explicit judgments. These results indicate distinct explicit and implicit neural representations of hand direction, similar to the notion of distinct visual systems. PMID:23894307

Towards the next generation of climate change assessment: learning from past experiences to inform a sustainable future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mach, K. J.; Field, C. B.

2017-12-01

Over decades, assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and many others has bolstered understanding of the climate problem: unequivocal warming, pervasive impacts, and serious risks from continued high emissions of heat-trapping gases. Societies are increasingly responding with early actions to decarbonize energy systems and prepare for impacts. This emerging era of climate solutions creates a need for new approaches to assessment that emphasize learning from ongoing real-world experiences and that help close the gap between aspirations and the pace of progress. Against this backdrop, the presentation will take stock of recent advances and challenges in assessment, especially drawing from analysis of climate change assessment. Four assessment priorities will be considered: (1) integrating diverse evidence including quantitative and qualitative results, (2) applying rigorous expert judgment in evaluating knowledge and uncertainties, (3) exploring widely ranging futures and their connections to ongoing choices and actions, and (4) incorporating interactions among experts and decision-makers in assessment processes. Across these assessment priorities, the presentation will critique both opportunities and pitfalls, outlining possibilities for future experimentation, innovation, and learning. It will evaluate, in particular, lessons from risk-based approaches; strategies for transparently acknowledging persistent uncertainties and contested priorities; ways to minimize biases and foster creativity in expert judgments; scenario-based assessment of surprises, deep uncertainties, and decision-making implications; and opportunities for broadening the conception of expertise and engaging different decision-makers and stakeholders. Overall, these approaches can advance assessment products and processes as a basis for sustained dialogue supporting decision-making.

Relativism, Objectivity and Moral Judgment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Partington, Geoffrey

1979-01-01

Reaction against the naive moral absolutism of past historical writing has frequently led to unconditional moral and cultural relativism which is equally dangerous. A viable solution is contingent relativism in historical judgments, combining explicit and examinable criteria of human values and concern for contexts of time and place. (Author/SJL)

Uncovering clinical knowledge and caring practices.

PubMed

Feldman, M E

1993-06-01

Narrative storytelling is a means by which knowledge embedded in nursing practice is uncovered and examined. Benner uses this method to study and explore skill acquisition and experience-based knowledge in nursing practice. By sharing these stories, knowledge that is unique to the experienced clinician is preserved and extended. The narrative presented here describes the expert coaching, discretionary judgment, and skilled involvement in the care of a patient in the PACU.

Forensic Comparison and Matching of Fingerprints: Using Quantitative Image Measures for Estimating Error Rates through Understanding and Predicting Difficulty

PubMed Central

Kellman, Philip J.; Mnookin, Jennifer L.; Erlikhman, Gennady; Garrigan, Patrick; Ghose, Tandra; Mettler, Everett; Charlton, David; Dror, Itiel E.

2014-01-01

Latent fingerprint examination is a complex task that, despite advances in image processing, still fundamentally depends on the visual judgments of highly trained human examiners. Fingerprints collected from crime scenes typically contain less information than fingerprints collected under controlled conditions. Specifically, they are often noisy and distorted and may contain only a portion of the total fingerprint area. Expertise in fingerprint comparison, like other forms of perceptual expertise, such as face recognition or aircraft identification, depends on perceptual learning processes that lead to the discovery of features and relations that matter in comparing prints. Relatively little is known about the perceptual processes involved in making comparisons, and even less is known about what characteristics of fingerprint pairs make particular comparisons easy or difficult. We measured expert examiner performance and judgments of difficulty and confidence on a new fingerprint database. We developed a number of quantitative measures of image characteristics and used multiple regression techniques to discover objective predictors of error as well as perceived difficulty and confidence. A number of useful predictors emerged, and these included variables related to image quality metrics, such as intensity and contrast information, as well as measures of information quantity, such as the total fingerprint area. Also included were configural features that fingerprint experts have noted, such as the presence and clarity of global features and fingerprint ridges. Within the constraints of the overall low error rates of experts, a regression model incorporating the derived predictors demonstrated reasonable success in predicting objective difficulty for print pairs, as shown both in goodness of fit measures to the original data set and in a cross validation test. The results indicate the plausibility of using objective image metrics to predict expert performance and subjective assessment of difficulty in fingerprint comparisons. PMID:24788812

Attribution of global foodborne disease to specific foods: Findings from a World Health Organization structured expert elicitation

PubMed Central

Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Aspinall, Willy; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie; Angulo, Frederick; Gibb, Herman; Kirk, Martyn; Lake, Robin; Speybroeck, Niko; Torgerson, Paul; Hald, Tine

2017-01-01

Background Recently the World Health Organization, Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) estimated that 31 foodborne diseases (FBDs) resulted in over 600 million illnesses and 420,000 deaths worldwide in 2010. Knowing the relative role importance of different foods as exposure routes for key hazards is critical to preventing illness. This study reports the findings of a structured expert elicitation providing globally comparable food source attribution estimates for 11 major FBDs in each of 14 world subregions. Methods and findings We used Cooke’s Classical Model to elicit and aggregate judgments of 73 international experts. Judgments were elicited from each expert individually and aggregated using both equal and performance weights. Performance weighted results are reported as they increased the informativeness of estimates, while retaining accuracy. We report measures of central tendency and uncertainty bounds on food source attribution estimate. For some pathogens we see relatively consistent food source attribution estimates across subregions of the world; for others there is substantial regional variation. For example, for non-typhoidal salmonellosis, pork was of minor importance compared to eggs and poultry meat in the American and African subregions, whereas in the European and Western Pacific subregions the importance of these three food sources were quite similar. Our regional results broadly agree with estimates from earlier European and North American food source attribution research. As in prior food source attribution research, we find relatively wide uncertainty bounds around our median estimates. Conclusions We present the first worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific foodborne diseases attributable to specific food exposure routes. While we find substantial uncertainty around central tendency estimates, we believe these estimates provide the best currently available basis on which to link FBDs and specific foods in many parts of the world, providing guidance for policy actions to control FBDs. PMID:28910293

Preliminary Strategic Environmental Assessment of the Great Western Development Strategy: Safeguarding Ecological Security for a New Western China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wei; Liu, Yan-Ju; Yang, Zhifeng

2012-02-01

The Great Western Development Strategy (GWDS) is a long term national campaign aimed at boosting development of the western area of China and narrowing the economic gap between the western and the eastern parts of China. The Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) procedure was employed to assess the environmental challenges brought about by the western development plans. These plans include five key developmental domains (KDDs): water resource exploitation and use, land utilization, energy generation, tourism development, and ecological restoration and conservation. A combination of methods involving matrix assessment, incorporation of expert judgment and trend analysis was employed to analyze and predict the environmental impacts upon eight selected environmental indicators: water resource availability, soil erosion, soil salinization, forest destruction, land desertification, biological diversity, water quality and air quality. Based on the overall results of the assessment, countermeasures for environmental challenges that emerged were raised as key recommendations to ensure ecological security during the implementation of the GWDS. This paper is intended to introduce a consensus-based process for evaluating the complex, long term pressures on the ecological security of large areas, such as western China, that focuses on the use of combined methods applied at the strategic level.

Preliminary strategic environmental assessment of the Great Western Development Strategy: safeguarding ecological security for a new western China.

PubMed

Li, Wei; Liu, Yan-ju; Yang, Zhifeng

2012-02-01

The Great Western Development Strategy (GWDS) is a long term national campaign aimed at boosting development of the western area of China and narrowing the economic gap between the western and the eastern parts of China. The Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) procedure was employed to assess the environmental challenges brought about by the western development plans. These plans include five key developmental domains (KDDs): water resource exploitation and use, land utilization, energy generation, tourism development, and ecological restoration and conservation. A combination of methods involving matrix assessment, incorporation of expert judgment and trend analysis was employed to analyze and predict the environmental impacts upon eight selected environmental indicators: water resource availability, soil erosion, soil salinization, forest destruction, land desertification, biological diversity, water quality and air quality. Based on the overall results of the assessment, countermeasures for environmental challenges that emerged were raised as key recommendations to ensure ecological security during the implementation of the GWDS. This paper is intended to introduce a consensus-based process for evaluating the complex, long term pressures on the ecological security of large areas, such as western China, that focuses on the use of combined methods applied at the strategic level.

Deepening Prospective Mathematics Teachers' Diagnostic Judgments: Interplay of Videos, Focus Questions and Didactic Categories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prediger, Susanne; Zindel, Carina

2017-01-01

This article combines different conceptualizations of teachers' diagnostic competence in listening to students' mathematical thinking processes on the levels of general perspectives, noticed aspects and activated didactic categories. An empirical study of 159 prospective mathematics teachers' diagnostic judgments investigated how these levels are…

The Two Sides of Beauty: Laterality and the Duality of Facial Attractiveness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Franklin, Robert G., Jr.; Adams, Reginald B., Jr.

2010-01-01

We hypothesized that facial attractiveness represents a dual judgment, a combination of reward-based, sexual processes, and aesthetic, cognitive processes. Herein we describe a study that demonstrates that sexual and nonsexual processes both contribute to attractiveness judgments and that these processes can be dissociated. Female participants…

[Consequences of the judgment of the Federal Constitutional Court on the fighting dog problem].

PubMed

Hülsenbusch, M

2005-03-01

The Federal Constitutional Court decided with its "Dangerous dog-judgment" about the constitutional complaint of 53 dog breeders on the federal act combating dangerous dogs. This judgment was a so-called Pyrrhic Victory for the appellants. The Court declared the legislative competence of the federal level in this issue for null and void. But the statutory prohibition for breeding Pitbull-Terrier-, American Staffordshire-Terrier-, Staffordshire-Bullterrier-, Bullterrier-races and cross breeding out of this dogs will be governed in police laws by the Laender finally. The Standing Conference of the Ministers for Internal Affairs declared an appropriate recommendation. The use of the category "race" was refused by experts in discussions as completely wrong and not acceptable. But the Federal Constitutional Court reasons that the legislator can use the category "race" within his scope of evaluation and prognostication in accordance with the Constitution for the ban of import of dangerous dogs. The Court demands--because of the weak data background - that the legislator monitors the legislation, to adjust it according to current developments. The Constitutional Court creates with the judgment "dangerous dogs" legal certainty. The jurisprudence of the administrative courts of the Laender and of the Federal Administrative Court based on the category "race" was approved as well as the police laws of the Laender dealing with dangerous dogs.

Improving Adolescent Judgment and Decision Making

PubMed Central

Dansereau, Donald F.; Knight, Danica K.; Flynn, Patrick M.

2013-01-01

Human judgment and decision making (JDM) has substantial room for improvement, especially among adolescents. Increased technological and social complexity “ups the ante” for developing impactful JDM interventions and aids. Current explanatory advances in this field emphasize dual processing models that incorporate both experiential and analytic processing systems. According to these models, judgment and decisions based on the experiential system are rapid and stem from automatic reference to previously stored episodes. Those based on the analytic system are viewed as slower and consciously developed. These models also hypothesize that metacognitive (self-monitoring) activities embedded in the analytic system influence how and when the two systems are used. What is not included in these models is the development of an intersection between the two systems. Because such an intersection is strongly suggested by memory and educational research as the basis of wisdom/expertise, the present paper describes an Integrated Judgment and Decision-Making Model (IJDM) that incorporates this component. Wisdom/expertise is hypothesized to contain a collection of schematic structures that can emerge from the accumulation of similar episodes or repeated analytic practice. As will be argued, in comparisons to dual system models, the addition of this component provides a broader basis for selecting and designing interventions to improve adolescent JDM. Its development also has implications for generally enhancing cognitive interventions by adopting principles from athletic training to create automated, expert behaviors. PMID:24391350

A Causal Role for V5/MT Neurons Coding Motion-Disparity Conjunctions in Resolving Perceptual Ambiguity

PubMed Central

Krug, Kristine; Cicmil, Nela; Parker, Andrew J.; Cumming, Bruce G.

2013-01-01

Summary Judgments about the perceptual appearance of visual objects require the combination of multiple parameters, like location, direction, color, speed, and depth. Our understanding of perceptual judgments has been greatly informed by studies of ambiguous figures, which take on different appearances depending upon the brain state of the observer. Here we probe the neural mechanisms hypothesized as responsible for judging the apparent direction of rotation of ambiguous structure from motion (SFM) stimuli. Resolving the rotation direction of SFM cylinders requires the conjoint decoding of direction of motion and binocular depth signals [1, 2]. Within cortical visual area V5/MT of two macaque monkeys, we applied electrical stimulation at sites with consistent multiunit tuning to combinations of binocular depth and direction of motion, while the monkey made perceptual decisions about the rotation of SFM stimuli. For both ambiguous and unambiguous SFM figures, rotation judgments shifted as if we had added a specific conjunction of disparity and motion signals to the stimulus elements. This is the first causal demonstration that the activity of neurons in V5/MT contributes directly to the perception of SFM stimuli and by implication to decoding the specific conjunction of disparity and motion, the two different visual cues whose combination drives the perceptual judgment. PMID:23871244

A conceptual model for site-level ecology of the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) in the Sacramento Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halstead, Brian J.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Casazza, Michael L.; Hansen, Eric C.; Scherer, Rick D.; Patterson, Laura C.

2015-08-14

Bayesian networks further provide a clear visual display of the model that facilitates understanding among various stakeholders (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Empirical data and expert judgment can be combined, as continuous or categorical variables, to update knowledge about the system (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Importantly, Bayesian network models allow inference from causes to consequences, but also from consequences to causes, so that data can inform the states of nodes (values of different random variables) in either direction (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Because they can incorporate both decision nodes that represent management actions and utility nodes that quantify the costs and benefits of outcomes, Bayesian networks are ideally suited to risk analysis and adaptive management (Nyberg and others, 2006; Howes and others, 2010). Thus, Bayesian network models are useful in situations where empirical data are not available, such as questions concerning the responses of giant gartersnakes to management.

Support for linguistic macrofamilies from weighted sequence alignment

PubMed Central

Jäger, Gerhard

2015-01-01

Computational phylogenetics is in the process of revolutionizing historical linguistics. Recent applications have shed new light on controversial issues, such as the location and time depth of language families and the dynamics of their spread. So far, these approaches have been limited to single-language families because they rely on a large body of expert cognacy judgments or grammatical classifications, which is currently unavailable for most language families. The present study pursues a different approach. Starting from raw phonetic transcription of core vocabulary items from very diverse languages, it applies weighted string alignment to track both phonetic and lexical change. Applied to a collection of ∼1,000 Eurasian languages and dialects, this method, combined with phylogenetic inference, leads to a classification in excellent agreement with established findings of historical linguistics. Furthermore, it provides strong statistical support for several putative macrofamilies contested in current historical linguistics. In particular, there is a solid signal for the Nostratic/Eurasiatic macrofamily. PMID:26403857

Remission of rheumatoid arthritis: should we care about definitions?

PubMed

Aletaha, D; Smolen, J S

2006-01-01

A state of remission can be achieved in more and more rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. The combination of several RA disease activity measures seems to be important to provide an overall view of disease activity. Remission can be defined by two different approaches: one using a categorical model, requiring criteria for multiple variables to be fulfilled, each with its own threshold value (remission "criteria"); the other using a dimensional model, providing single measures of activity, which allow definition of remission by a single cut point (remission cut points for composite indices). The face validity of remission as defined by composite indices surpasses the one for the "criteria". Likewise, the ones that are not weighted seem to surpass the weighted ones, as can be seen by the significant proportion of patients that continues to have considerable swollen joint counts despite being in Disease Activity Score (DAS)-28 remission. All composite indices seem to perform similarly well as tests for remission using expert judgments as the gold standard.

Measuring Laypeople’s Trust in Experts in a Digital Age: The Muenster Epistemic Trustworthiness Inventory (METI)

PubMed Central

Hendriks, Friederike; Kienhues, Dorothe; Bromme, Rainer

2015-01-01

Given their lack of background knowledge, laypeople require expert help when dealing with scientific information. To decide whose help is dependable, laypeople must judge an expert’s epistemic trustworthiness in terms of competence, adherence to scientific standards, and good intentions. Online, this may be difficult due to the often limited and sometimes unreliable source information available. To measure laypeople’s evaluations of experts (encountered online), we constructed an inventory to assess epistemic trustworthiness on the dimensions expertise, integrity, and benevolence. Exploratory (n = 237) and confirmatory factor analyses (n = 345) showed that the Muenster Epistemic Trustworthiness Inventory (METI) is composed of these three factors. A subsequent experimental study (n = 137) showed that all three dimensions of the METI are sensitive to variation in source characteristics. We propose using this inventory to measure assignments of epistemic trustworthiness, that is, all judgments laypeople make when deciding whether to place epistemic trust in–and defer to–an expert in order to solve a scientific informational problem that is beyond their understanding. PMID:26474078

Modeling Music Emotion Judgments Using Machine Learning Methods

PubMed Central

Vempala, Naresh N.; Russo, Frank A.

2018-01-01

Emotion judgments and five channels of physiological data were obtained from 60 participants listening to 60 music excerpts. Various machine learning (ML) methods were used to model the emotion judgments inclusive of neural networks, linear regression, and random forests. Input for models of perceived emotion consisted of audio features extracted from the music recordings. Input for models of felt emotion consisted of physiological features extracted from the physiological recordings. Models were trained and interpreted with consideration of the classic debate in music emotion between cognitivists and emotivists. Our models supported a hybrid position wherein emotion judgments were influenced by a combination of perceived and felt emotions. In comparing the different ML approaches that were used for modeling, we conclude that neural networks were optimal, yielding models that were flexible as well as interpretable. Inspection of a committee machine, encompassing an ensemble of networks, revealed that arousal judgments were predominantly influenced by felt emotion, whereas valence judgments were predominantly influenced by perceived emotion. PMID:29354080

Modeling Music Emotion Judgments Using Machine Learning Methods.

PubMed

Vempala, Naresh N; Russo, Frank A

2017-01-01

Emotion judgments and five channels of physiological data were obtained from 60 participants listening to 60 music excerpts. Various machine learning (ML) methods were used to model the emotion judgments inclusive of neural networks, linear regression, and random forests. Input for models of perceived emotion consisted of audio features extracted from the music recordings. Input for models of felt emotion consisted of physiological features extracted from the physiological recordings. Models were trained and interpreted with consideration of the classic debate in music emotion between cognitivists and emotivists. Our models supported a hybrid position wherein emotion judgments were influenced by a combination of perceived and felt emotions. In comparing the different ML approaches that were used for modeling, we conclude that neural networks were optimal, yielding models that were flexible as well as interpretable. Inspection of a committee machine, encompassing an ensemble of networks, revealed that arousal judgments were predominantly influenced by felt emotion, whereas valence judgments were predominantly influenced by perceived emotion.

First tier modeling of consumer dermal exposure to substances in consumer articles under REACH: a quantitative evaluation of the ECETOC TRA for consumers tool.

PubMed

Delmaar, J E; Bokkers, B G H; ter Burg, W; van Engelen, J G M

2013-02-01

The demonstration of safe use of chemicals in consumer products, as required under REACH, is proposed to follow a tiered process. In the first tier, simple conservative methods and assumptions should be made to quickly verify whether risks for a particular use are expected. The ECETOC TRA Consumer Exposure Tool was developed to assist in first tier risk assessments for substances in consumer products. The ECETOC TRA is not a prioritization tool, but is meant as a first screening. Therefore, the exposure assessment needs to cover all products/articles in a specific category. For the assessment of the dermal exposure for substances in articles, ECETOC TRA uses the concept of a 'contact layer', a hypothetical layer that limits the exposure to a substance contained in the product. For each product/article category, ECETOC TRA proposes default values for the thickness of this contact layer. As relevant experimental exposure data is currently lacking, default values are based on expert judgment alone. In this paper it is verified whether this concept meets the requirement of being a conservative exposure evaluation method. This is done by confronting the ECETOC TRA expert judgment based predictions with a mechanistic emission model, based on the well established theory of diffusion of substances in materials. Diffusion models have been applied and tested in many applications of emission modeling. Experimentally determined input data for a number of material and substance combinations are available. The estimated emissions provide information on the range of emissions that could occur in reality. First tier tools such as ECETOC TRA tool are required to cover all products/articles in a category and to provide estimates that are at least as high as is expected on the basis of current scientific knowledge. Since this was not the case, it is concluded that the ECETOC TRA does not provide a proper conservative estimation method for the dermal exposure to articles. An alternative method was proposed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Defense Health Care: Research on Hyperbaric Oxygen Therapy to Treat Traumatic Brain Injury and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

injuries that are not combat related. Letter Page 2 GAO-16-154 Hyperbaric Oxygen Therapy depression , and suicide. Experts believe...fatigue, visual disturbances, sensitivity to noise, judgment problems, depression , and anxiety. Although the majority of individuals with mild TBI have...suffer from other ailments, such as depression and substance abuse. PTSD is one of the most prevalent mental disorders arising from combat. HBO2

Visualization support for risk-informed decision making when planning and managing software developments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, Martin S.; Kiper, James D.; Menzies, Tim

2005-01-01

Key decisions are made in the early stages of planning and management of software developments. The information basis for these decisions is often a mix of analogy with past developments, and the best judgments of domain experts. Visualization of this information can support to such decision making by clarifying the status of the information and yielding insights into the ramifications of that information vis-a-vis decision alternatives.

Concept formation: a supportive process for early career nurses.

PubMed

Thornley, Tracey; West, Sandra

2010-09-01

Individuals come to understand abstract constructs such as that of the 'expert' through the formation of concepts. Time and repeated opportunity for observation to support the generalisation and abstraction of the developing concept are essential if the concept is to form successfully. Development of an effective concept of the 'expert nurse' is critical for early career nurses who are attempting to integrate theory, values and beliefs as they develop their clinical practice. This study explores the use of a concept development framework in a grounded theory study of the 'expert nurse'. Qualitative. Using grounded theory methods for data collection and analysis, semi-structured interviews were conducted with registered nurses. The participants were asked to describe their concept of the 'expert nurse' and to discuss their experience of developing this. Participants reported forming their concept of the 'expert nurse', after multiple opportunities to engage with nurses identified as 'expert'. This identification did not necessarily relate to the designated position of the 'expert nurse' or assigned mentors. When the early career nurse does not successfully form a concept of the 'expert nurse', difficulties in personal and professional development including skill/knowledge development may arise. To underpin development of their clinical practice effectively, early career nurses need to be provided with opportunities that facilitate the purposive formation of their own concept of the 'expert nurse'. Formation of this concept is not well supported by the common practice of assigning mentors. Early career nurses must be provided with the time and the opportunity to individually develop and refine their concept of the 'expert nurse'. To achieve this, strategies including providing opportunities to engage with expert nurses and discussion of the process of concept formation and its place in underpinning personal judgments may be of assistance. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Processing of proprioceptive and vestibular body signals and self-transcendence in Ashtanga yoga practitioners.

PubMed

Fiori, Francesca; David, Nicole; Aglioti, Salvatore M

2014-01-01

In the rod and frame test (RFT), participants are asked to set a tilted visual linear marker (i.e., a rod), embedded in a square, to the subjective vertical, irrespective of the surrounding frame. People not influenced by the frame tilt are defined as field-independent, while people biased in their rod verticality perception are field-dependent. Performing RFT requires the integration of proprioceptive, vestibular and visual signals with the latter accounting for field-dependency. Studies indicate that motor experts in body-related, balance-improving disciplines tend to be field-independent, i.e., better at verticality perception, suggesting that proprioceptive and vestibular expertise acquired by such exercise may weaken the influence of irrelevant visual signals. What remains unknown is whether the effect of body-related expertise in weighting perceptual information might also be mediated by personality traits, in particular those indexing self-focusing abilities. To explore this issue, we tested field-dependency in a class of body experts, namely yoga practitioners and in non-expert participants. Moreover we explored any link between performance on RFT and self-transcendence (ST), a complex personality construct, which refers to tendency to experience spiritual feelings and ideas. As expected, yoga practitioners (i) were more accurate in assessing the rod's verticality on the RFT, and (ii) expressed significantly higher ST. Interestingly, the performance in these two tests was negatively correlated. More specifically, when asked to provide verticality judgments, highly self-transcendent yoga practitioners were significantly less influenced by a misleading visual context. Our results suggest that being highly self-transcendent may enable yoga practitioners to optimize verticality judgment tasks by relying more on internal (vestibular and proprioceptive) signals coming from their own body, rather than on exteroceptive, visual cues.

Development of Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Recommendations: Relevance and Influence of the Evidence on the Decision-Making Process in France and the Netherlands.

PubMed

Silva, Maria Laura; Paget, W John; Mosnier, Anne; Buthion, Valérie; Cohen, Jean Marie; Perrier, Lionel; Späth, Hans Martin

2016-01-01

Target groups for seasonal influenza vaccination are defined at the country level and are based on several factors. However, little is known about the national decision-making procedures. The purpose of this study was to compare the evidence used for the development of recommendations and its impact on the choice of target groups in France and the Netherlands. A preliminary documentary analysis identified institutions to include in the assessment: governmental authorities, research institutions, associations, and manufacturers. At least one expert from each group was invited to our study. Thirty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted in 2013 (16 France, 17 the Netherlands). We used NVivo10® to perform a thematic content analysis. Clinical/epidemiological studies were the evidence most used in both countries. Economic models were increasingly being used; these had greater influence on the decision making in the Netherlands than in France, probably because of the presence of a modeler. Generally, the quality of the evidence used was poor, although no systematic use of standard protocol for its assessment was observed. A general protocol was sometimes used in France; however, the personal judgment of the experts was crucial for the assessment in both countries. There were differences in the target groups, for example, pregnant women, recommended only in France. France and the Netherlands use similar evidence for developing vaccination recommendations, although different decisions are sometimes made regarding target groups. This could be associated with the lack of systematic standard appraisals, increasing the influence of the experts' judgment on decision making. The development of standards for the appraisal of evidence is recommended. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon Monica; Reveley, Mary S.; Luxhoj, James T.

2012-01-01

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Processing of proprioceptive and vestibular body signals and self-transcendence in Ashtanga yoga practitioners

PubMed Central

Fiori, Francesca; David, Nicole; Aglioti, Salvatore M.

2014-01-01

In the rod and frame test (RFT), participants are asked to set a tilted visual linear marker (i.e., a rod), embedded in a square, to the subjective vertical, irrespective of the surrounding frame. People not influenced by the frame tilt are defined as field-independent, while people biased in their rod verticality perception are field-dependent. Performing RFT requires the integration of proprioceptive, vestibular and visual signals with the latter accounting for field-dependency. Studies indicate that motor experts in body-related, balance-improving disciplines tend to be field-independent, i.e., better at verticality perception, suggesting that proprioceptive and vestibular expertise acquired by such exercise may weaken the influence of irrelevant visual signals. What remains unknown is whether the effect of body-related expertise in weighting perceptual information might also be mediated by personality traits, in particular those indexing self-focusing abilities. To explore this issue, we tested field-dependency in a class of body experts, namely yoga practitioners and in non-expert participants. Moreover we explored any link between performance on RFT and self-transcendence (ST), a complex personality construct, which refers to tendency to experience spiritual feelings and ideas. As expected, yoga practitioners (i) were more accurate in assessing the rod's verticality on the RFT, and (ii) expressed significantly higher ST. Interestingly, the performance in these two tests was negatively correlated. More specifically, when asked to provide verticality judgments, highly self-transcendent yoga practitioners were significantly less influenced by a misleading visual context. Our results suggest that being highly self-transcendent may enable yoga practitioners to optimize verticality judgment tasks by relying more on internal (vestibular and proprioceptive) signals coming from their own body, rather than on exteroceptive, visual cues. PMID:25278866

AgMIP 1.5°C Assessment: Mitigation and Adaptation at Coordinated Global and Regional Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.

2016-12-01

The AgMIP 1.5°C Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (AgMIP 1.5 CGRA) is linking site-based crop and livestock models with similar models run on global grids, and then links these biophysical components with economics models and nutrition metrics at regional and global scales. The AgMIP 1.5 CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, nutrition, and food security to define the 1.5°C Protocols and guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including socioeconomic development (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), greenhouse gas concentrations (Representative Concentration Pathways), and specific pathways of agricultural sector development (Representative Agricultural Pathways). Shared Climate Policy Assumptions will be extended to provide additional agricultural detail on mitigation and adaptation strategies. The multi-model, multi-disciplinary, multi-scale integrated assessment framework is using scenarios of economic development, adaptation, mitigation, food policy, and food security. These coordinated assessments are grounded in the expertise of AgMIP partners around the world, leading to more consistent results and messages for stakeholders, policymakers, and the scientific community. The early inclusion of nutrition and food security experts has helped to ensure that assessment outputs include important metrics upon which investment and policy decisions may be based. The CGRA builds upon existing AgMIP research groups (e.g., the AgMIP Wheat Team and the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Modeling Initiative; GGCMI) and regional programs (e.g., AgMIP Regional Teams in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia), with new protocols for cross-scale and cross-disciplinary linkages to ensure the propagation of expert judgment and consistent assumptions.

Drug- and Herb-Induced Liver Injury in Clinical and Translational Hepatology: Causality Assessment Methods, Quo Vadis?

PubMed Central

Eickhoff, Axel; Schulze, Johannes

2013-01-01

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) and herb-induced liver injury (HILI) are typical diseases of clinical and translational hepatology. Their diagnosis is complex and requires an experienced clinician to translate basic science into clinical judgment and identify a valid causality algorithm. To prospectively assess causality starting on the day DILI or HILI is suspected, the best approach for physicians is to use the Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS) scale in its original or preferably its updated version. The CIOMS scale is validated, liver-specific, structured, and quantitative, providing final causality grades based on scores of specific items for individual patients. These items include latency period, decline in liver values after treatment cessation, risk factors, co-medication, alternative diagnoses, hepatotoxicity track record of the suspected product, and unintentional re-exposure. Provided causality is established as probable or highly probable, data of the CIOMS scale with all individual items, a short clinical report, and complete raw data should be transmitted to the regulatory agencies, manufacturers, expert panels, and possibly to the scientific community for further refinement of the causality evaluation in a setting of retrospective expert opinion. Good-quality case data combined with thorough CIOMS-based assessment as a standardized approach should avert subsequent necessity for other complex causality assessment methods that may have inter-rater problems because of poor-quality data. In the future, the CIOMS scale will continue to be the preferred tool to assess causality of DILI and HILI cases and should be used consistently, both prospectively by physicians, and retrospectively for subsequent expert opinion if needed. For comparability and international harmonization, all parties assessing causality in DILI and HILI cases should attempt this standardized approach using the updated CIOMS scale. PMID:26357608

Cognitive Engineering of Advanced Information Technology for Air Force Systems Design and Deployment: Prototype for Air Defense Intelligence and Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-10-01

train members of the eventual decision-making group to have different strategies, called " policies ," for making inferences and/or decisions. For example...group task, the task side of the lens model is structured so that each person must modify his judgment policy by learning from the other person in order...judgment policy ; that is, they would receive in both pictorial and textual form a description of how each person combines information to make a judgment

Neural substrates of similarity and rule-based strategies in judgment

PubMed Central

von Helversen, Bettina; Karlsson, Linnea; Rasch, Björn; Rieskamp, Jörg

2014-01-01

Making accurate judgments is a core human competence and a prerequisite for success in many areas of life. Plenty of evidence exists that people can employ different judgment strategies to solve identical judgment problems. In categorization, it has been demonstrated that similarity-based and rule-based strategies are associated with activity in different brain regions. Building on this research, the present work tests whether solving two identical judgment problems recruits different neural substrates depending on people's judgment strategies. Combining cognitive modeling of judgment strategies at the behavioral level with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we compare brain activity when using two archetypal judgment strategies: a similarity-based exemplar strategy and a rule-based heuristic strategy. Using an exemplar-based strategy should recruit areas involved in long-term memory processes to a larger extent than a heuristic strategy. In contrast, using a heuristic strategy should recruit areas involved in the application of rules to a larger extent than an exemplar-based strategy. Largely consistent with our hypotheses, we found that using an exemplar-based strategy led to relatively higher BOLD activity in the anterior prefrontal and inferior parietal cortex, presumably related to retrieval and selective attention processes. In contrast, using a heuristic strategy led to relatively higher activity in areas in the dorsolateral prefrontal and the temporal-parietal cortex associated with cognitive control and information integration. Thus, even when people solve identical judgment problems, different neural substrates can be recruited depending on the judgment strategy involved. PMID:25360099

Effect of pooled comparative information on judgments of quality

PubMed Central

Baumgart, Leigh A.; Bass, Ellen J.; Voss, John D.; Lyman, Jason A.

2015-01-01

Quality assessment is the focus of many health care initiatives. Yet it is not well understood how the type of information used in decision support tools to enable judgments of quality based on data impacts the accuracy, consistency and reliability of judgments made by physicians. Comparative pooled information could allow physicians to judge the quality of their practice by making comparisons to other practices or other specific populations of patients. In this study, resident physicians were provided with varying types of information derived from pooled patient data sets: quality component measures at the individual and group level, a qualitative interpretation of the quality measures using percentile rank, and an aggregate composite quality score. 32 participants viewed thirty quality profiles consisting of information applicable to the practice of thirty de-identified resident physicians. Those provided with quality component measures and a qualitative interpretation of the quality measures (rankings) judged quality of care more similarly to experts and were more internally consistent compared to participants who were provided with quality component measures alone. Reliability between participants was significantly less for those who were provided with a composite quality score compared to those who were not. PMID:26949581

Face and Content Validity of the MacArthur Competence Assessment Tool for the Treatment of Iranian Patients.

PubMed

Saber, Ali; Tabatabaei, Seyed Mahmoud; Akasheh, Godarz; Sehat, Mojtaba; Zanjani, Zahra; Larijani, Bagher

2017-01-01

There is not a valid Persian tool for measuring the decision-making competency of patients. The aim of this study is to evaluate the face and content validity of the MacArthur Competence Assessment Tool for the treatment of Iranian Persian-speaking patients. To assess the validity of the Persian version of the tool, a self-administrated questionnaire was designed. The Lawshe method was also used for assessing each item. Content validity ratio (CVR) and content validity index (CVI) were used to assess the content validity quantitatively. According to the experts' judgment, questions with a CVR ≥0.62 and CVR <0.62 were maintainable and unmaintainable, respectively. The questions were designed in a manner to achieve the desirable result (CVR ≥0.62). The CVI scale (S-CVI) and CVI (S-CVI/Ave) were 0.94 (higher than 0.79). Thus, the content validity was confirmed. Since capacity assessments are usually based on physician's subjective judgment, they are likely to bias and therefore, with this suitably validated tool, we can improve judgment of physicians and health-care providers in out- and in-patient cases.

Simplification and Shift in Cognition of Political Difference: Applying the Geometric Modeling to the Analysis of Semantic Similarity Judgment

PubMed Central

Kato, Junko; Okada, Kensuke

2011-01-01

Perceiving differences by means of spatial analogies is intrinsic to human cognition. Multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) analysis based on Minkowski geometry has been used primarily on data on sensory similarity judgments, leaving judgments on abstractive differences unanalyzed. Indeed, analysts have failed to find appropriate experimental or real-life data in this regard. Our MDS analysis used survey data on political scientists' judgments of the similarities and differences between political positions expressed in terms of distance. Both distance smoothing and majorization techniques were applied to a three-way dataset of similarity judgments provided by at least seven experts on at least five parties' positions on at least seven policies (i.e., originally yielding 245 dimensions) to substantially reduce the risk of local minima. The analysis found two dimensions, which were sufficient for mapping differences, and fit the city-block dimensions better than the Euclidean metric in all datasets obtained from 13 countries. Most city-block dimensions were highly correlated with the simplified criterion (i.e., the left–right ideology) for differences that are actually used in real politics. The isometry of the city-block and dominance metrics in two-dimensional space carries further implications. More specifically, individuals may pay attention to two dimensions (if represented in the city-block metric) or focus on a single dimension (if represented in the dominance metric) when judging differences between the same objects. Switching between metrics may be expected to occur during cognitive processing as frequently as the apparent discontinuities and shifts in human attention that may underlie changing judgments in real situations occur. Consequently, the result has extended strong support for the validity of the geometric models to represent an important social cognition, i.e., the one of political differences, which is deeply rooted in human nature. PMID:21673959

Simplification and shift in cognition of political difference: applying the geometric modeling to the analysis of semantic similarity judgment.

PubMed

Kato, Junko; Okada, Kensuke

2011-01-01

Perceiving differences by means of spatial analogies is intrinsic to human cognition. Multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) analysis based on Minkowski geometry has been used primarily on data on sensory similarity judgments, leaving judgments on abstractive differences unanalyzed. Indeed, analysts have failed to find appropriate experimental or real-life data in this regard. Our MDS analysis used survey data on political scientists' judgments of the similarities and differences between political positions expressed in terms of distance. Both distance smoothing and majorization techniques were applied to a three-way dataset of similarity judgments provided by at least seven experts on at least five parties' positions on at least seven policies (i.e., originally yielding 245 dimensions) to substantially reduce the risk of local minima. The analysis found two dimensions, which were sufficient for mapping differences, and fit the city-block dimensions better than the Euclidean metric in all datasets obtained from 13 countries. Most city-block dimensions were highly correlated with the simplified criterion (i.e., the left-right ideology) for differences that are actually used in real politics. The isometry of the city-block and dominance metrics in two-dimensional space carries further implications. More specifically, individuals may pay attention to two dimensions (if represented in the city-block metric) or focus on a single dimension (if represented in the dominance metric) when judging differences between the same objects. Switching between metrics may be expected to occur during cognitive processing as frequently as the apparent discontinuities and shifts in human attention that may underlie changing judgments in real situations occur. Consequently, the result has extended strong support for the validity of the geometric models to represent an important social cognition, i.e., the one of political differences, which is deeply rooted in human nature.

The role of judgment frames and task precision in object attention: Reduced template sharpness limits dual-object performance.

PubMed

Liu, Shiau-Hua; Dosher, Barbara Anne; Lu, Zhong-Lin

2009-06-01

Multiple attributes of a single-object are often processed more easily than attributes of different objects-a phenomenon associated with object attention. Here we investigate the influence of two factors, judgment frames and judgment precision, on dual-object report deficits as an index of object attention. [Han, S., Dosher, B., & Lu, Z.-L. (2003). Object attention revisited: Identifying mechanisms and boundary conditions. Psychological Science, 14, 598-604] predicted that consistency of the frame for judgments about two separate objects could reduce or eliminate the expression of object attention limitations. The current studies examine the effects of judgment frames and of task precision in orientation identification and find that dual-object report deficits within one feature are indeed affected modestly by the congruency of the judgments and more substantially by the required precision of judgments. The observed dual-object deficits affected contrast thresholds for incongruent frame conditions and for high precision judgments and reduce psychometric asymptotes. These dual-object deficits reflect a combined effect of multiplicative noise and external noise exclusion in dual-object conditions, both related to the effects of attention on the tuning of perceptual templates. These results have implications for modification of object attention theory, for understanding limitations on concurrent tasks.

Non-pharmaceutical public health interventions for pandemic influenza: an evaluation of the evidence base.

PubMed

Aledort, Julia E; Lurie, Nicole; Wasserman, Jeffrey; Bozzette, Samuel A

2007-08-15

In an influenza pandemic, the benefit of vaccines and antiviral medications will be constrained by limitations on supplies and effectiveness. Non-pharmaceutical public health interventions will therefore be vital in curtailing disease spread. However, the most comprehensive assessments of the literature to date recognize the generally poor quality of evidence on which to base non-pharmaceutical pandemic planning decisions. In light of the need to prepare for a possible pandemic despite concerns about the poor quality of the literature, combining available evidence with expert opinion about the relative merits of non-pharmaceutical interventions for pandemic influenza may lead to a more informed and widely accepted set of recommendations. We evaluated the evidence base for non-pharmaceutical public health interventions. Then, based on the collective evidence, we identified a set of recommendations for and against interventions that are specific to both the setting in which an intervention may be used and the pandemic phase, and which can be used by policymakers to prepare for a pandemic until scientific evidence can definitively respond to planners' needs. Building on reviews of past pandemics and recent historical inquiries, we evaluated the relative merits of non-pharmaceutical interventions by combining available evidence from the literature with qualitative and quantitative expert opinion. Specifically, we reviewed the recent scientific literature regarding the prevention of human-to-human transmission of pandemic influenza, convened a meeting of experts from multiple disciplines, and elicited expert recommendation about the use of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions in a variety of settings (healthcare facilities; community-based institutions; private households) and pandemic phases (no pandemic; no US pandemic; early localized US pandemic; advanced US pandemic). The literature contained a dearth of evidence on the efficacy or effectiveness of most non-pharmaceutical interventions for influenza. In an effort to inform decision-making in the absence of strong scientific evidence, the experts ultimately endorsed hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette, surveillance and case reporting, and rapid viral diagnosis in all settings and during all pandemic phases. They also encouraged patient and provider use of masks and other personal protective equipment as well as voluntary self-isolation of patients during all pandemic phases. Other non-pharmaceutical interventions including mask-use and other personal protective equipment for the general public, school and workplace closures early in an epidemic, and mandatory travel restrictions were rejected as likely to be ineffective, infeasible, or unacceptable to the public. The demand for scientific evidence on non-pharmaceutical public health interventions for influenza is pervasive, and present policy recommendations must rely heavily on expert judgment. In the absence of a definitive science base, our assessment of the evidence identified areas for further investigation as well as non-pharmaceutical public health interventions that experts believe are likely to be beneficial, feasible and widely acceptable in an influenza pandemic.

Optimization of space system development resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosmann, William J.; Sarkani, Shahram; Mazzuchi, Thomas

2013-06-01

NASA has had a decades-long problem with cost growth during the development of space science missions. Numerous agency-sponsored studies have produced average mission level cost growths ranging from 23% to 77%. A new study of 26 historical NASA Science instrument set developments using expert judgment to reallocate key development resources has an average cost growth of 73.77%. Twice in history, a barter-based mechanism has been used to reallocate key development resources during instrument development. The mean instrument set development cost growth was -1.55%. Performing a bivariate inference on the means of these two distributions, there is statistical evidence to support the claim that using a barter-based mechanism to reallocate key instrument development resources will result in a lower expected cost growth than using the expert judgment approach. Agent-based discrete event simulation is the natural way to model a trade environment. A NetLogo agent-based barter-based simulation of science instrument development was created. The agent-based model was validated against the Cassini historical example, as the starting and ending instrument development conditions are available. The resulting validated agent-based barter-based science instrument resource reallocation simulation was used to perform 300 instrument development simulations, using barter to reallocate development resources. The mean cost growth was -3.365%. A bivariate inference on the means was performed to determine that additional significant statistical evidence exists to support a claim that using barter-based resource reallocation will result in lower expected cost growth, with respect to the historical expert judgment approach. Barter-based key development resource reallocation should work on spacecraft development as well as it has worked on instrument development. A new study of 28 historical NASA science spacecraft developments has an average cost growth of 46.04%. As barter-based key development resource reallocation has never been tried in a spacecraft development, no historical results exist, and a simulation of using that approach must be developed. The instrument development simulation should be modified to account for spacecraft development market participant differences. The resulting agent-based barter-based spacecraft resource reallocation simulation would then be used to determine if significant statistical evidence exists to prove a claim that using barter-based resource reallocation will result in lower expected cost growth.

Thinking like a nurse: a research-based model of clinical judgment in nursing.

PubMed

Tanner, Christine A

2006-06-01

This article reviews the growing body of research on clinical judgment in nursing and presents an alternative model of clinical judgment based on these studies. Based on a review of nearly 200 studies, five conclusions can be drawn: (1) Clinical judgments are more influenced by what nurses bring to the situation than the objective data about the situation at hand; (2) Sound clinical judgment rests to some degree on knowing the patient and his or her typical pattern of responses, as well as an engagement with the patient and his or her concerns; (3) Clinical judgments are influenced by the context in which the situation occurs and the culture of the nursing care unit; (4) Nurses use a variety of reasoning patterns alone or in combination; and (5) Reflection on practice is often triggered by a breakdown in clinical judgment and is critical for the development of clinical knowledge and improvement in clinical reasoning. A model based on these general conclusions emphasizes the role of nurses' background, the context of the situation, and nurses' relationship with their patients as central to what nurses notice and how they interpret findings, respond, and reflect on their response.

Influence of Professional Affiliation on Expert’s View on Welfare Measures

PubMed Central

Rousing, Tine; Forkman, Björn

2017-01-01

Simple Summary Animal welfare can be assessed from different ethical points of view, which may vary from one individual to another. This is often met by including different stakeholders’ opinions in the process of adding up welfare benefits and or welfare risks. However, in order to obtain the most reliable results, these expert panels should be balanced; since experts’ professional affiliations can influence their judgment on different welfare aspects as shown in the present study. Abstract The present study seeks to investigate the influence of expert affiliation in the weighing procedures within animal welfare assessments. Experts are often gathered with different backgrounds with differing approaches to animal welfare posing a potential pitfall if affiliation groups are not balanced in numbers of experts. At two time points (2012 and 2016), dairy cattle and swine experts from four different stakeholder groups, namely researchers (RES), production advisors (CONS), practicing veterinarians (VET) and animal welfare control officers (AWC) were asked to weigh eight different welfare criteria: Hunger, Thirst, Resting comfort, Ease of movement, Injuries, Disease, Human-animal bond and Emotional state. A total of 54 dairy cattle experts (RES = 15%, CONS = 22%, VET = 35%, AWC = 28%) and 34 swine experts (RES = 24%, CONS = 35%, AWC = 41%) participated. Between—and within—group differences in the prioritization of criteria were assessed. AWC cattle experts differed consistently from the other cattle expert groups but only significantly for the criteria Hunger (p = 0.04), and tendencies towards significance within the criteria Thirst (p = 0.06). No significant differences were found between expert groups among swine experts. Inter-expert differences were more pronounced for both species. The results highlight the challenges of using expert weightings in aggregated welfare assessment models, as the choice of expert affiliation may play a confounding role in the final aggregation due to different prioritization of criteria. PMID:29140262

Decisional Bias as Implicit Moral Judgment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spring, Toni; Saltzstein, Herbert D.

2017-01-01

Decisional bias (false alarm rate) when judging the guilt/innocence of a suspect is offered as an implicit measure of moral judgment. Combining two data sets, 215 participants, ages 10-12, 13-15, and 16-18 watched the visually identical film involving a person setting a fire, framed either as (1) intentional but not resulting in a fire (BI-NF),…

An Examination of Dependence Power, Father Involvement, and Judgments about Violence in an At-Risk Community Sample of Mothers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samp, Jennifer A.; Abbott, Leslie

2011-01-01

Individuals sometimes remain in dysfunctional, and even violent, relationships due to a perceived dependence on a partner. We examined the influence of dependence power judgments (defined by a combined assessment of mother commitment, perceived father commitment, and perceived father alternatives) in a community sample of mothers potentially bound…

Combining Excellence and Ethics: Implications for Moral Education for the Gifted

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tirri, Kirsi

2011-01-01

In this article the current empirical research on morality and giftedness is reviewed with an emphasis on moral sensitivity. The component of moral judgment has been the most studied aspect in morality. Although high-ability students have been shown to be superior in moral judgment when compared to average-ability students, morality includes other…

What is the role of the research ethics committee? Paternalism, inducements, and harm in research ethics

PubMed Central

Garrard, E; Dawson, A

2005-01-01

In a recent paper Edwards, Kirchin, and Huxtable have argued that research ethics committees (RECs) are often wrongfully paternalistic in their approach to medical research. They argue that it should be left to competent potential research subjects to make judgments about the acceptability of harms and benefits relating to research, and that this is not a legitimate role for any REC. They allow an exception to their overall antipaternalism, however, in that they think RECs should have the power to prohibit the use of financial inducements to recruit research subjects into trials. In this paper it is argued that these claims are unjustified and implausible. A sketch is provided of an alternative model of the role of the REC as an expert body making judgments about the acceptability of research proposals through a consensual weighing of different moral considerations. PMID:15994364

Granularity analysis for mathematical proofs.

PubMed

Schiller, Marvin R G

2013-04-01

Mathematical proofs generally allow for various levels of detail and conciseness, such that they can be adapted for a particular audience or purpose. Using automated reasoning approaches for teaching proof construction in mathematics presupposes that the step size of proofs in such a system is appropriate within the teaching context. This work proposes a framework that supports the granularity analysis of mathematical proofs, to be used in the automated assessment of students' proof attempts and for the presentation of hints and solutions at a suitable pace. Models for granularity are represented by classifiers, which can be generated by hand or inferred from a corpus of sample judgments via machine-learning techniques. This latter procedure is studied by modeling granularity judgments from four experts. The results provide support for the granularity of assertion-level proofs but also illustrate a degree of subjectivity in assessing step size. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

A causal role for V5/MT neurons coding motion-disparity conjunctions in resolving perceptual ambiguity.

PubMed

Krug, Kristine; Cicmil, Nela; Parker, Andrew J; Cumming, Bruce G

2013-08-05

Judgments about the perceptual appearance of visual objects require the combination of multiple parameters, like location, direction, color, speed, and depth. Our understanding of perceptual judgments has been greatly informed by studies of ambiguous figures, which take on different appearances depending upon the brain state of the observer. Here we probe the neural mechanisms hypothesized as responsible for judging the apparent direction of rotation of ambiguous structure from motion (SFM) stimuli. Resolving the rotation direction of SFM cylinders requires the conjoint decoding of direction of motion and binocular depth signals [1, 2]. Within cortical visual area V5/MT of two macaque monkeys, we applied electrical stimulation at sites with consistent multiunit tuning to combinations of binocular depth and direction of motion, while the monkey made perceptual decisions about the rotation of SFM stimuli. For both ambiguous and unambiguous SFM figures, rotation judgments shifted as if we had added a specific conjunction of disparity and motion signals to the stimulus elements. This is the first causal demonstration that the activity of neurons in V5/MT contributes directly to the perception of SFM stimuli and by implication to decoding the specific conjunction of disparity and motion, the two different visual cues whose combination drives the perceptual judgment. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation and calibration of structural models that combine information from multiple sources.

PubMed

Dahabreh, Issa J; Wong, John B; Trikalinos, Thomas A

2017-02-01

Mathematical models that attempt to capture structural relationships between their components and combine information from multiple sources are increasingly used in medicine. Areas covered: We provide an overview of methods for model validation and calibration and survey studies comparing alternative approaches. Expert commentary: Model validation entails a confrontation of models with data, background knowledge, and other models, and can inform judgments about model credibility. Calibration involves selecting parameter values to improve the agreement of model outputs with data. When the goal of modeling is quantitative inference on the effects of interventions or forecasting, calibration can be viewed as estimation. This view clarifies issues related to parameter identifiability and facilitates formal model validation and the examination of consistency among different sources of information. In contrast, when the goal of modeling is the generation of qualitative insights about the modeled phenomenon, calibration is a rather informal process for selecting inputs that result in model behavior that roughly reproduces select aspects of the modeled phenomenon and cannot be equated to an estimation procedure. Current empirical research on validation and calibration methods consists primarily of methodological appraisals or case-studies of alternative techniques and cannot address the numerous complex and multifaceted methodological decisions that modelers must make. Further research is needed on different approaches for developing and validating complex models that combine evidence from multiple sources.

List of U.S. Army Research Institute Research and Technical Publications: January 1, 1986 thru September 30, 1989

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-06-01

for Synthetic Validation for Entry- Level Army Jobs, Crafts, J. ; Szenas, P.L. ; Chia, W.J.; Pulakos, E.D. December 1988. (AD A205 438) This review...presents relevant literature in the areas of synthetic validation, job component models, and expert judgments. Synthetic validation is a logical...for synthetic validation, presents a model of the steps to establish linkages, reviews and evaluates synthetic validation studies in terms of how

Quantifying Uncertainty in Expert Judgment: Initial Results

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

lines of source code were added in . ---------- C++ = 32%; JavaScript = 29%; XML = 15%; C = 7%; CSS = 7%; Java = 5%; Oth- er = 5% LOC = 927,266...much total effort in person years has been spent on this project? CMU/SEI-2013-TR-001 | 33 5 MySQL , the most popular Open Source SQL...as MySQL , Oracle, PostgreSQL, MS SQL Server, ODBC, or Interbase. Features include email reminders, iCal/vCal import/export, re- mote subscriptions

[Study on Information Extraction of Clinic Expert Information from Hospital Portals].

PubMed

Zhang, Yuanpeng; Dong, Jiancheng; Qian, Danmin; Geng, Xingyun; Wu, Huiqun; Wang, Li

2015-12-01

Clinic expert information provides important references for residents in need of hospital care. Usually, such information is hidden in the deep web and cannot be directly indexed by search engines. To extract clinic expert information from the deep web, the first challenge is to make a judgment on forms. This paper proposes a novel method based on a domain model, which is a tree structure constructed by the attributes of search interfaces. With this model, search interfaces can be classified to a domain and filled in with domain keywords. Another challenge is to extract information from the returned web pages indexed by search interfaces. To filter the noise information on a web page, a block importance model is proposed. The experiment results indicated that the domain model yielded a precision 10.83% higher than that of the rule-based method, whereas the block importance model yielded an F₁ measure 10.5% higher than that of the XPath method.

The effect of food label cues on perceptions of quality and purchase intentions among high-involvement consumers with varying levels of nutrition knowledge.

PubMed

Walters, Amber; Long, Marilee

2012-01-01

To determine whether differences in nutrition knowledge affected how women (a high-involvement group) interpreted intrinsic cues (ingredient list) and extrinsic cues ("all natural" label) on food labels. A 2 (intrinsic cue) × 2 (extrinsic cue) × 2 (nutrition knowledge expert vs novice) within-subject factorial design was used. Participants were 106 female college students (61 experts, 45 novices). Dependent variables were perception of product quality and purchase intention. As predicted by the elaboration likelihood model, experts used central route processing to scrutinize intrinsic cues and make judgments about food products. Novices used peripheral route processing to make simple inferences about the extrinsic cues in labels. Consumers' levels of nutrition knowledge influenced their ability to process food labels. The United States Food and Drug Administration should regulate the "all natural" food label, because this claim is likely to mislead most consumers. Copyright © 2012 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scientists versus regulators: precaution, novelty & regulatory oversight as predictors of perceived risks of engineered nanomaterials.

PubMed

Beaudrie, Christian E H; Satterfield, Terre; Kandlikar, Milind; Harthorn, Barbara H

2014-01-01

Engineered nanoscale materials (ENMs) present a difficult challenge for risk assessors and regulators. Continuing uncertainty about the potential risks of ENMs means that expert opinion will play an important role in the design of policies to minimize harmful implications while supporting innovation. This research aims to shed light on the views of 'nano experts' to understand which nanomaterials or applications are regarded as more risky than others, to characterize the differences in risk perceptions between expert groups, and to evaluate the factors that drive these perceptions. Our analysis draws from a web-survey (N = 404) of three groups of US and Canadian experts: nano-scientists and engineers, nano-environmental health and safety scientists, and regulatory scientists and decision-makers. Significant differences in risk perceptions were found across expert groups; differences found to be driven by underlying attitudes and perceptions characteristic of each group. Nano-scientists and engineers at the upstream end of the nanomaterial life cycle perceived the lowest levels of risk, while those who are responsible for assessing and regulating risks at the downstream end perceived the greatest risk. Perceived novelty of nanomaterial risks, differing preferences for regulation (i.e. the use of precaution versus voluntary or market-based approaches), and perceptions of the risk of technologies in general predicted variation in experts' judgments of nanotechnology risks. Our findings underscore the importance of involving a diverse selection of experts, particularly those with expertise at different stages along the nanomaterial lifecycle, during policy development.

Application of Fuzzy Delphi in the Selection of COPD Risk Factors among Steel Industry Workers.

PubMed

Dapari, Rahmat; Ismail, Halim; Ismail, Rosnah; Ismail, Noor Hassim

2017-01-01

The Delphi method has been widely applied in many study areas to systematically gather experts' input on particular topic. Recently, it has become increasingly well known in health related research. This paper applied the Fuzzy Delphi method to enhance the validation of a questionnaire pertaining chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk factors among metal industry workers. A detailed, predefined list of possible risk factors for COPD among metal industry workers was created through a comprehensive and exhaustive review of literature from 1995 to 2015. The COPD questionnaire were distributed among people identified as occupational, environmental, and hygiene experts. Linguistic variable using Likert scale was used by the expert to indicate their expert judgment of each item. Subsequently, the linguistic variable was converted into a triangular fuzzy number. The average score of the fuzzy number will be used to determine whether the item will be removed or retained. Ten experts were involved in evaluating 26 items. The experts were in agreement with most of the items, with an average fuzzy number range between 0.429 and 0.800. Two items were removed and three items were added, leaving a total 26 items selected for the COPD risk factors questionnaire. The experts were in disagreement with each other for items F10 and F11 where most of the experts claimed that the question is too subjective and based on self-perception only. The fuzzy Delphi method enhanced the accuracy of the questionnaire pertaining to COPD risk factors, and decreased the length of the established tools.

Hemispheric asymmetry in holistic processing of words.

PubMed

Ventura, Paulo; Delgado, João; Ferreira, Miguel; Farinha-Fernandes, António; Guerreiro, José C; Faustino, Bruno; Leite, Isabel; Wong, Alan C-N

2018-05-13

Holistic processing has been regarded as a hallmark of face perception, indicating the automatic and obligatory tendency of the visual system to process all face parts as a perceptual unit rather than in isolation. Studies involving lateralized stimulus presentation suggest that the right hemisphere dominates holistic face processing. Holistic processing can also be shown with other categories such as words and thus it is not specific to faces or face-like expertize. Here, we used divided visual field presentation to investigate the possibly different contributions of the two hemispheres for holistic word processing. Observers performed same/different judgment on the cued parts of two sequentially presented words in the complete composite paradigm. Our data indicate a right hemisphere specialization for holistic word processing. Thus, these markers of expert object recognition are domain general.

Traceable accounts of subjective probability judgments in the IPCC and beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baer, P. G.

2012-12-01

One of the major sources of controversy surrounding the reports of the IPCC has been the characterization of uncertainty. Although arguably the IPCC has paid more attention to the process of uncertainty analysis and communication than any comparable assessment body, its efforts to achieve consistency have produced mixed results. In particular, the extensive use of subjective probability assessment has attracted widespread criticism. Statements such as "Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years" are ubiquitous (one online database lists nearly 3000 such claims), and indeed are the primary way in which its key "findings" are reported. Much attention is drawn to the precise quantitative definition of such statements (e.g., "very likely" means >90% probability, vs. "extremely likely" which means >95% certainty). But there is no process by which the decision regarding the choice of such uncertainty level for a given finding is formally made or reported, and thus they are easily by disputed by anyone, expert or otherwise, who disagrees with the assessment. In the "Uncertainty Guidance Paper" for the Third Assessment Report, Richard Moss and Steve Schneider defined the concept of a "traceable account," which gave exhaustive detail regarding how one ought to provide documentation of such an uncertainty assessment. But the guidance, while appearing straightforward and reasonable, in fact was an unworkable recipe, which would have taken near-infinite time if used for more than a few key results, and would have required a different structuring of the text than the conventional scientific assessment. And even then it would have left a gap when it came to the actual provenance of any such specific judgments, because there simply is no formal step at which individuals turn their knowledge of the evidence on some finding into a probability judgment. The Uncertainty Guidance Papers for the TAR and subsequent assessments have left open the possibility of using such an expert elicitation within the IPCC drafting process, but to my knowledge it has never been done. Were it in fact attempted, it would reveal the inconvenient truth that there is no uniquely correct method for aggregating probability statements; indeed the standard practice within climate-related expert elicitations has been to report all individual estimates without aggregation. But if a report requires a single "consensus estimate," once you have even a single divergent opinion, the question of how to aggregate becomes unavoidable. In this paper, I review in greater detail the match or lack of it between the vision of a "traceable account" and IPCC practice, and the public discussion of selected examples of probabilistic judgments in AR4. I propose elements of a structure based on a flexible software architecture that could facilitate the development and documentation of what I call "collective subjective probability." Using a simple prototype and a pair of sample "findings" from AR4, I demonstrate an example of how such a structure could be used by a small expert community to implement a practical model of a "traceable account." I conclude with as discussion of the prospects of using such modular elicitations in support of, or as an alternative to, conventional IPCC assessment processes.

Feasibility of an Assessment Tool for Children's Competence to Consent to Predictive Genetic Testing: a Pilot Study.

PubMed

Hein, Irma M; Troost, Pieter W; Lindeboom, Robert; Christiaans, Imke; Grisso, Thomas; van Goudoever, Johannes B; Lindauer, Ramón J L

2015-12-01

Knowledge on children's capacities to consent to medical treatment is limited. Also, age limits for asking children's consent vary considerably between countries. Decision-making on predictive genetic testing (PGT) is especially complicated, considering the ongoing ethical debate. In order to examine just age limits for alleged competence to consent in children, we evaluated feasibility of a standardized assessment tool, and investigated cutoff ages for children's competence to consent to PGT. We performed a pilot study, including 17 pediatric outpatients between 6 and 18 years at risk for an autosomal dominantly inherited cardiac disease, eligible for predictive genetic testing. The reference standard for competence was established by experts trained in the relevant criteria for competent decision-making. The MacArthur Competence Assessment Tool for Treatment (MacCAT-T) served as index test. Data analysis included raw agreement between competence classifications, difference in mean ages between children judged competent and judged incompetent, and estimation of cutoff ages for judgments of competence. Twelve (71 %) children were considered competent by the reference standard, and 16 (94 %) by the MacCAT-T, with an overall agreement of 76 %. The expert judgments disagreed in most cases, while the MacCAT-T judgments agreed in 65 %. Mean age of children judged incompetent was 9.3 years and of children judged competent 12.1 years (p = .035). With 90 % sensitivity, children younger than 10.0 years were judged incompetent, with 90 % specificity children older than 11.8 years were judged competent. Feasibility of the MacCAT-T in children is confirmed. Initial findings on age cutoffs are indicative for children between the age of 12 and 18 to be judged competent for involvement in the informed consent process. Future research on appropriate age-limits for children's alleged competence to consent is needed.

Human Judgment and the Logic of Evidence: A Critical Examination of Research Methods in Special Education Transition Literature.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harnisch, Delwyn L.; And Others

This paper describes several common types of research studies in special education transition literature and the threats to their validity. It then describes how the evidential base may be broadened, how diverse sources of evidence can be combined to strengthen causal inferences, and the role of judgment within quasi-experimentation. The paper…

Unifying Kohlberg with Information Integration: The Moral Algebra of Recompense and of Kohlbergian Moral Informers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hommers, Wilfried; Lee, Wha-Yong

2010-01-01

In order to unify two major theories of moral judgment, a novel task is employed which combines elements of Kohlberg's stage theory and of the theory of information integration. In contrast to the format of Kohlberg's moral judgment interview, a nonverbal and quantitative response which makes low demands on verbal facility was used. Moral…

Information Extraction of High Resolution Remote Sensing Images Based on the Calculation of Optimal Segmentation Parameters

PubMed Central

Zhu, Hongchun; Cai, Lijie; Liu, Haiying; Huang, Wei

2016-01-01

Multi-scale image segmentation and the selection of optimal segmentation parameters are the key processes in the object-oriented information extraction of high-resolution remote sensing images. The accuracy of remote sensing special subject information depends on this extraction. On the basis of WorldView-2 high-resolution data, the optimal segmentation parameters methodof object-oriented image segmentation and high-resolution image information extraction, the following processes were conducted in this study. Firstly, the best combination of the bands and weights was determined for the information extraction of high-resolution remote sensing image. An improved weighted mean-variance method was proposed andused to calculatethe optimal segmentation scale. Thereafter, the best shape factor parameter and compact factor parameters were computed with the use of the control variables and the combination of the heterogeneity and homogeneity indexes. Different types of image segmentation parameters were obtained according to the surface features. The high-resolution remote sensing images were multi-scale segmented with the optimal segmentation parameters. Ahierarchical network structure was established by setting the information extraction rules to achieve object-oriented information extraction. This study presents an effective and practical method that can explain expert input judgment by reproducible quantitative measurements. Furthermore the results of this procedure may be incorporated into a classification scheme. PMID:27362762

Multi-indicator Evaluation System for Broadsword, Rod, Sword and Spear Athletes Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Lin

2017-08-01

In the practical selection of Wushu athletes, the objective evaluation of the level of athletes lacks sufficient technical indicators and often relies on the coach’s subjective judgments. It is difficult to accurately and objectively reflect the overall quality of the athletes without a fully quantified indicator system, thus affecting the level improvement of Wushu competition. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a systemic analysis method combining quantitative and qualitative analysis. This paper realizes structured, hierarchized and quantified decision-making process of evaluating broadsword, rod, sword and spear athletes in the AHP. Combing characteristics of the athletes, analysis is carried out from three aspects, i.e., the athlete’s body shape, physical function and sports quality and 18 specific evaluation indicators established, and then combining expert advice and practical experience, pairwise comparison matrix is determined, and then the weight of the indicators and comprehensive evaluation coefficient are obtained to establish the evaluation model for the athletes, thus providing a scientific theoretical basis for the selection of Wushu athletes. The evaluation model proposed in this paper has realized the evaluation system of broadsword, rod, sword and spear athletes, which has effectively improved the scientific level of Wushu athletes selection in practical application.

Information Extraction of High Resolution Remote Sensing Images Based on the Calculation of Optimal Segmentation Parameters.

PubMed

Zhu, Hongchun; Cai, Lijie; Liu, Haiying; Huang, Wei

2016-01-01

Multi-scale image segmentation and the selection of optimal segmentation parameters are the key processes in the object-oriented information extraction of high-resolution remote sensing images. The accuracy of remote sensing special subject information depends on this extraction. On the basis of WorldView-2 high-resolution data, the optimal segmentation parameters methodof object-oriented image segmentation and high-resolution image information extraction, the following processes were conducted in this study. Firstly, the best combination of the bands and weights was determined for the information extraction of high-resolution remote sensing image. An improved weighted mean-variance method was proposed andused to calculatethe optimal segmentation scale. Thereafter, the best shape factor parameter and compact factor parameters were computed with the use of the control variables and the combination of the heterogeneity and homogeneity indexes. Different types of image segmentation parameters were obtained according to the surface features. The high-resolution remote sensing images were multi-scale segmented with the optimal segmentation parameters. Ahierarchical network structure was established by setting the information extraction rules to achieve object-oriented information extraction. This study presents an effective and practical method that can explain expert input judgment by reproducible quantitative measurements. Furthermore the results of this procedure may be incorporated into a classification scheme.

Organizing knowledge for tutoring fire loss prevention

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmoldt, Daniel L.

1989-09-01

The San Bernardino National Forest in southern California has recently developed a systematic approach to wildfire prevention planning. However, a comprehensive document or other mechanism for teaching this process to other prevention personnel does not exist. An intelligent tutorial expert system is being constructed to provide a means for learning the process and to assist in the creation of specific prevention plans. An intelligent tutoring system (ITS) contains two types of knowledge—domain and tutoring. The domain knowledge for wildfire prevention is structured around several foci: (1) individual concepts used in prevention planning; (2) explicitly specified interrelationships between concepts; (3) deductive methods that contain subjective judgment normally unavailable to less-experienced users; (4) analytical models of fire behavior used for identification of hazard areas; (5) how-to guidance needed for performance of planning tasks; and (6) expository information that provides a rationale for planning steps and ideas. Combining analytical, procedure, inferential, conceptual, and expositional knowledge into a tutoring environment provides the student and/or user with a multiple perspective of the subject matter. A concept network provides a unifying framework for structuring and utilizing these diverse forms of prevention planning knowledge. This network structure borrows from and combines semantic networks and frame-based knowledge representations. The flexibility of this organization facilitates an effective synthesis and organization of multiple knowledge forms.

Personality judgments from everyday images of faces

PubMed Central

Sutherland, Clare A. M.; Rowley, Lauren E.; Amoaku, Unity T.; Daguzan, Ella; Kidd-Rossiter, Kate A.; Maceviciute, Ugne; Young, Andrew W.

2015-01-01

People readily make personality attributions to images of strangers' faces. Here we investigated the basis of these personality attributions as made to everyday, naturalistic face images. In a first study, we used 1000 highly varying “ambient image” face photographs to test the correspondence between personality judgments of the Big Five and dimensions known to underlie a range of facial first impressions: approachability, dominance, and youthful-attractiveness. Interestingly, the facial Big Five judgments were found to separate to some extent: judgments of openness, extraversion, emotional stability, and agreeableness were mainly linked to facial first impressions of approachability, whereas conscientiousness judgments involved a combination of approachability and dominance. In a second study we used average face images to investigate which main cues are used by perceivers to make impressions of the Big Five, by extracting consistent cues to impressions from the large variation in the original images. When forming impressions of strangers from highly varying, naturalistic face photographs, perceivers mainly seem to rely on broad facial cues to approachability, such as smiling. PMID:26579008

Issues and recent advances in optimal experimental design for site investigation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowak, W.

2013-12-01

This presentation provides an overview over issues and recent advances in model-based experimental design for site exploration. The addressed issues and advances are (1) how to provide an adequate envelope to prior uncertainty, (2) how to define the information needs in a task-oriented manner, (3) how to measure the expected impact of a data set that it not yet available but only planned to be collected, and (4) how to perform best the optimization of the data collection plan. Among other shortcomings of the state-of-the-art, it is identified that there is a lack of demonstrator studies where exploration schemes based on expert judgment are compared to exploration schemes obtained by optimal experimental design. Such studies will be necessary do address the often voiced concern that experimental design is an academic exercise with little improvement potential over the well- trained gut feeling of field experts. When addressing this concern, a specific focus has to be given to uncertainty in model structure, parameterizations and parameter values, and to related surprises that data often bring about in field studies, but never in synthetic-data based studies. The background of this concern is that, initially, conceptual uncertainty may be so large that surprises are the rule rather than the exception. In such situations, field experts have a large body of experience in handling the surprises, and expert judgment may be good enough compared to meticulous optimization based on a model that is about to be falsified by the incoming data. In order to meet surprises accordingly and adapt to them, there needs to be a sufficient representation of conceptual uncertainty within the models used. Also, it is useless to optimize an entire design under this initial range of uncertainty. Thus, the goal setting of the optimization should include the objective to reduce conceptual uncertainty. A possible way out is to upgrade experimental design theory towards real-time interaction with the ongoing site investigation, such that surprises in the data are immediately accounted for to restrict the conceptual uncertainty and update the optimization of the plan.

Visual features as stepping stones toward semantics: Explaining object similarity in IT and perception with non-negative least squares

PubMed Central

Jozwik, Kamila M.; Kriegeskorte, Nikolaus; Mur, Marieke

2016-01-01

Object similarity, in brain representations and conscious perception, must reflect a combination of the visual appearance of the objects on the one hand and the categories the objects belong to on the other. Indeed, visual object features and category membership have each been shown to contribute to the object representation in human inferior temporal (IT) cortex, as well as to object-similarity judgments. However, the explanatory power of features and categories has not been directly compared. Here, we investigate whether the IT object representation and similarity judgments are best explained by a categorical or a feature-based model. We use rich models (>100 dimensions) generated by human observers for a set of 96 real-world object images. The categorical model consists of a hierarchically nested set of category labels (such as “human”, “mammal”, and “animal”). The feature-based model includes both object parts (such as “eye”, “tail”, and “handle”) and other descriptive features (such as “circular”, “green”, and “stubbly”). We used non-negative least squares to fit the models to the brain representations (estimated from functional magnetic resonance imaging data) and to similarity judgments. Model performance was estimated on held-out images not used in fitting. Both models explained significant variance in IT and the amounts explained were not significantly different. The combined model did not explain significant additional IT variance, suggesting that it is the shared model variance (features correlated with categories, categories correlated with features) that best explains IT. The similarity judgments were almost fully explained by the categorical model, which explained significantly more variance than the feature-based model. The combined model did not explain significant additional variance in the similarity judgments. Our findings suggest that IT uses features that help to distinguish categories as stepping stones toward a semantic representation. Similarity judgments contain additional categorical variance that is not explained by visual features, reflecting a higher-level more purely semantic representation. PMID:26493748

Visual features as stepping stones toward semantics: Explaining object similarity in IT and perception with non-negative least squares.

PubMed

Jozwik, Kamila M; Kriegeskorte, Nikolaus; Mur, Marieke

2016-03-01

Object similarity, in brain representations and conscious perception, must reflect a combination of the visual appearance of the objects on the one hand and the categories the objects belong to on the other. Indeed, visual object features and category membership have each been shown to contribute to the object representation in human inferior temporal (IT) cortex, as well as to object-similarity judgments. However, the explanatory power of features and categories has not been directly compared. Here, we investigate whether the IT object representation and similarity judgments are best explained by a categorical or a feature-based model. We use rich models (>100 dimensions) generated by human observers for a set of 96 real-world object images. The categorical model consists of a hierarchically nested set of category labels (such as "human", "mammal", and "animal"). The feature-based model includes both object parts (such as "eye", "tail", and "handle") and other descriptive features (such as "circular", "green", and "stubbly"). We used non-negative least squares to fit the models to the brain representations (estimated from functional magnetic resonance imaging data) and to similarity judgments. Model performance was estimated on held-out images not used in fitting. Both models explained significant variance in IT and the amounts explained were not significantly different. The combined model did not explain significant additional IT variance, suggesting that it is the shared model variance (features correlated with categories, categories correlated with features) that best explains IT. The similarity judgments were almost fully explained by the categorical model, which explained significantly more variance than the feature-based model. The combined model did not explain significant additional variance in the similarity judgments. Our findings suggest that IT uses features that help to distinguish categories as stepping stones toward a semantic representation. Similarity judgments contain additional categorical variance that is not explained by visual features, reflecting a higher-level more purely semantic representation. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Forty-Five Years of Civil Litigation Against Canadian Psychiatrists: An Empirical Pilot Study

PubMed Central

Luther, Glen; Gutheil, Thomas G.

2016-01-01

Objectives: To extract the themes pertaining to prudent psychiatric practice from written court judgments in Canada. Methods: We searched the medical and legal literature for cases involving civil litigation against Canadian psychiatrist and reviewed all available written judgments. We completed a thematic analysis of the civil actions against psychiatrists as conveyed by those written court judgments. We classified the cases according to the disposal status and the essential lessons from the decisions on standard of care and practice by Canadian psychiatrists. Results: Forty such cases were identified as involving psychiatrists over a 45-year period. A subgroup included those dealing with limitation periods and disclosure applications. Thirty of the 40 cases (75%) were decided in favour of the defendant psychiatrists, including 2 dismissed for running over the limitation period. The cases that actually went to trial suggest that documentation and obtaining second opinions are protective against claims of negligence. Inpatient cases resulting in successful litigation against psychiatrists involved fatal outcomes, but not all fatal outcomes led to successful litigation. Conclusions: The key lessons from these cases are the importance and relevance of regular best clinical practices, such as documentation, obtaining second opinions, following guidelines, and balancing competencies in the expert and manager or advocate roles. Incorporating these practices should allay concerns about litigation against psychiatrists. PMID:27253702

Forty-Five Years of Civil Litigation Against Canadian Psychiatrists: An Empirical Pilot Study.

PubMed

Mela, Mansfield; Luther, Glen; Gutheil, Thomas G

2016-02-01

To extract the themes pertaining to prudent psychiatric practice from written court judgments in Canada. We searched the medical and legal literature for cases involving civil litigation against Canadian psychiatrist and reviewed all available written judgments. We completed a thematic analysis of the civil actions against psychiatrists as conveyed by those written court judgments. We classified the cases according to the disposal status and the essential lessons from the decisions on standard of care and practice by Canadian psychiatrists. Forty such cases were identified as involving psychiatrists over a 45-year period. A subgroup included those dealing with limitation periods and disclosure applications. Thirty of the 40 cases (75%) were decided in favour of the defendant psychiatrists, including 2 dismissed for running over the limitation period. The cases that actually went to trial suggest that documentation and obtaining second opinions are protective against claims of negligence. Inpatient cases resulting in successful litigation against psychiatrists involved fatal outcomes, but not all fatal outcomes led to successful litigation. The key lessons from these cases are the importance and relevance of regular best clinical practices, such as documentation, obtaining second opinions, following guidelines, and balancing competencies in the expert and manager or advocate roles. Incorporating these practices should allay concerns about litigation against psychiatrists. © The Author(s) 2015.

Your visual system provides all the information you need to make moral judgments about generic visual events.

PubMed

De Freitas, Julian; Alvarez, George A

2018-05-28

To what extent are people's moral judgments susceptible to subtle factors of which they are unaware? Here we show that we can change people's moral judgments outside of their awareness by subtly biasing perceived causality. Specifically, we used subtle visual manipulations to create visual illusions of causality in morally relevant scenarios, and this systematically changed people's moral judgments. After demonstrating the basic effect using simple displays involving an ambiguous car collision that ends up injuring a person (E1), we show that the effect is sensitive on the millisecond timescale to manipulations of task-irrelevant factors that are known to affect perceived causality, including the duration (E2a) and asynchrony (E2b) of specific task-irrelevant contextual factors in the display. We then conceptually replicate the effect using a different paradigm (E3a), and also show that we can eliminate the effect by interfering with motion processing (E3b). Finally, we show that the effect generalizes across different kinds of moral judgments (E3c). Combined, these studies show that obligatory, abstract inferences made by the visual system influence moral judgments. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of Fuzzy Delphi in the Selection of COPD Risk Factors among Steel Industry Workers

PubMed Central

Ismail, Halim; Ismail, Rosnah; Ismail, Noor Hassim

2017-01-01

Background: The Delphi method has been widely applied in many study areas to systematically gather experts’ input on particular topic. Recently, it has become increasingly well known in health related research. This paper applied the Fuzzy Delphi method to enhance the validation of a questionnaire pertaining chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk factors among metal industry workers. Materials and Methods: A detailed, predefined list of possible risk factors for COPD among metal industry workers was created through a comprehensive and exhaustive review of literature from 1995 to 2015. The COPD questionnaire were distributed among people identified as occupational, environmental, and hygiene experts. Linguistic variable using Likert scale was used by the expert to indicate their expert judgment of each item. Subsequently, the linguistic variable was converted into a triangular fuzzy number. The average score of the fuzzy number will be used to determine whether the item will be removed or retained. Results: Ten experts were involved in evaluating 26 items. The experts were in agreement with most of the items, with an average fuzzy number range between 0.429 and 0.800. Two items were removed and three items were added, leaving a total 26 items selected for the COPD risk factors questionnaire. The experts were in disagreement with each other for items F10 and F11 where most of the experts claimed that the question is too subjective and based on self-perception only. Conclusion: The fuzzy Delphi method enhanced the accuracy of the questionnaire pertaining to COPD risk factors, and decreased the length of the established tools. PMID:28638424

Quality assessment of structure and language elements of written responses given by seven Scandinavian drug information centres.

PubMed

Reppe, Linda Amundstuen; Spigset, Olav; Kampmann, Jens Peter; Damkier, Per; Christensen, Hanne Rolighed; Böttiger, Ylva; Schjøtt, Jan

2017-05-01

The aim of this study was to identify structure and language elements affecting the quality of responses from Scandinavian drug information centres (DICs). Six different fictitious drug-related queries were sent to each of seven Scandinavian DICs. The centres were blinded for which queries were part of the study. The responses were assessed qualitatively by six clinical pharmacologists (internal experts) and six general practitioners (GPs, external experts). In addition, linguistic aspects of the responses were evaluated by a plain language expert. The quality of responses was generally judged as satisfactory to good. Presenting specific advice and conclusions were considered to improve the quality of the responses. However, small nuances in language formulations could affect the individual judgments of the experts, e.g. on whether or not advice was given. Some experts preferred the use of primary sources to the use of secondary and tertiary sources. Both internal and external experts criticised the use of abbreviations, professional terminology and study findings that was left unexplained. The plain language expert emphasised the importance of defining and explaining pharmacological terms to ensure that enquirers understand the response as intended. In addition, more use of active voice and less compressed text structure would be desirable. This evaluation of responses to DIC queries may give some indications on how to improve written responses on drug-related queries with respect to language and text structure. Giving specific advice and precise conclusions and avoiding too compressed language and non-standard abbreviations may aid to reach this goal.

Scientists versus Regulators: Precaution, Novelty & Regulatory Oversight as Predictors of Perceived Risks of Engineered Nanomaterials

PubMed Central

Beaudrie, Christian E. H.; Satterfield, Terre; Kandlikar, Milind; Harthorn, Barbara H.

2014-01-01

Engineered nanoscale materials (ENMs) present a difficult challenge for risk assessors and regulators. Continuing uncertainty about the potential risks of ENMs means that expert opinion will play an important role in the design of policies to minimize harmful implications while supporting innovation. This research aims to shed light on the views of ‘nano experts’ to understand which nanomaterials or applications are regarded as more risky than others, to characterize the differences in risk perceptions between expert groups, and to evaluate the factors that drive these perceptions. Our analysis draws from a web-survey (N = 404) of three groups of US and Canadian experts: nano-scientists and engineers, nano-environmental health and safety scientists, and regulatory scientists and decision-makers. Significant differences in risk perceptions were found across expert groups; differences found to be driven by underlying attitudes and perceptions characteristic of each group. Nano-scientists and engineers at the upstream end of the nanomaterial life cycle perceived the lowest levels of risk, while those who are responsible for assessing and regulating risks at the downstream end perceived the greatest risk. Perceived novelty of nanomaterial risks, differing preferences for regulation (i.e. the use of precaution versus voluntary or market-based approaches), and perceptions of the risk of technologies in general predicted variation in experts' judgments of nanotechnology risks. Our findings underscore the importance of involving a diverse selection of experts, particularly those with expertise at different stages along the nanomaterial lifecycle, during policy development. PMID:25222742

Priority of a Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relation with a Normal Distribution in Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Wang, Lihong; Gong, Zaiwu

2017-10-10

As meteorological disaster systems are large complex systems, disaster reduction programs must be based on risk analysis. Consequently, judgment by an expert based on his or her experience (also known as qualitative evaluation) is an important link in meteorological disaster risk assessment. In some complex and non-procedural meteorological disaster risk assessments, a hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation (HFLPR) is often used to deal with a situation in which experts may be hesitant while providing preference information of a pairwise comparison of alternatives, that is, the degree of preference of one alternative over another. This study explores hesitation from the perspective of statistical distributions, and obtains an optimal ranking of an HFLPR based on chance-restricted programming, which provides a new approach for hesitant fuzzy optimisation of decision-making in meteorological disaster risk assessments.

Adults' and Children's Understanding of How Expertise Influences Learning.

PubMed

Danovitch, Judith H; Shenouda, Christine K

2018-01-01

Adults and children use information about expertise to infer what a person is likely to know, but it is unclear whether they realize that expertise also has implications for learning. We explore adults' and children's understanding that expertise in a particular category supports learning about a closely related category. In four experiments, 5-year-olds and adults (n = 160) judged which of two people would be better at learning about a new category. When faced with an expert and a nonexpert, adults consistently indicated that expertise supports learning in a closely related category; however, children's judgments were inconsistent and were strongly influenced by the description of the nonexpert. The results suggest that although children understand what it means to be an expert, they may judge an individual's learning capacity based on different considerations than adults.

Bayesian model for fate and transport of polychlorinated biphenyl in upper Hudson River

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steinberg, L.J.; Reckhow, K.H.; Wolpert, R.L.

1996-05-01

Modelers of contaminant fate and transport in surface waters typically rely on literature values when selecting parameter values for mechanistic models. While the expert judgment with which these selections are made is valuable, the information contained in contaminant concentration measurements should not be ignored. In this full-scale Bayesian analysis of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination in the upper Hudson River, these two sources of information are combined using Bayes` theorem. A simulation model for the fate and transport of the PCBs in the upper Hudson River forms the basis of the likelihood function while the prior density is developed from literaturemore » values. The method provides estimates for the anaerobic biodegradation half-life, aerobic biodegradation plus volatilization half-life, contaminated sediment depth, and resuspension velocity of 4,400 d, 3.2 d, 0.32 m, and 0.02 m/yr, respectively. These are significantly different than values obtained with more traditional methods, and are shown to produce better predictions than those methods when used in a cross-validation study.« less

The influence of first impressions on subsequent ratings within an OSCE station.

PubMed

Wood, Timothy J; Chan, James; Humphrey-Murto, Susan; Pugh, Debra; Touchie, Claire

2017-10-01

Competency-based assessment is placing increasing emphasis on the direct observation of learners. For this process to produce valid results, it is important that raters provide quality judgments that are accurate. Unfortunately, the quality of these judgments is variable and the roles of factors that influence the accuracy of those judgments are not clearly understood. One such factor is first impressions: that is, judgments about people we do not know, made quickly and based on very little information. This study explores the influence of first impressions in an OSCE. Specifically, the purpose is to begin to examine the accuracy of a first impression and its influence on subsequent ratings. We created six videotapes of history-taking performance. Each video was scripted from a real performance by six examinee residents within a single OSCE station. Each performance was re-enacted with six different actors playing the role of the examinees and one actor playing the role of the patient and videotaped. A total of 23 raters (i.e., physician examiners) reviewed each video and were asked to make a global judgment of the examinee's clinical abilities after 60 s (First Impression GR) by providing a rating on a six-point global rating scale and then to rate their confidence in the accuracy of that judgment by providing a rating on a five-point rating scale (Confidence GR). After making these ratings, raters then watched the remainder of the examinee's performance and made another global rating of performance (Final GR) before moving on to the next video. First impression ratings of ability varied across examinees and were moderately correlated to expert ratings (r = .59, 95% CI [-.13, .90]). There were significant differences in mean ratings for three examinees. Correlations ranged from .05 to .56 but were only significant for three examinees. Rater confidence in their first impression was not related to the likelihood of a rater changing their rating between the first impression and a subsequent rating. The findings suggest that first impressions could play a role in explaining variability in judgments, but their importance was determined by the videotaped performance of the examinees. More work is needed to clarify conditions that support or discourage the use of first impressions.

Head Motion Modeling for Human Behavior Analysis in Dyadic Interaction

PubMed Central

Xiao, Bo; Georgiou, Panayiotis; Baucom, Brian; Narayanan, Shrikanth S.

2015-01-01

This paper presents a computational study of head motion in human interaction, notably of its role in conveying interlocutors’ behavioral characteristics. Head motion is physically complex and carries rich information; current modeling approaches based on visual signals, however, are still limited in their ability to adequately capture these important properties. Guided by the methodology of kinesics, we propose a data driven approach to identify typical head motion patterns. The approach follows the steps of first segmenting motion events, then parametrically representing the motion by linear predictive features, and finally generalizing the motion types using Gaussian mixture models. The proposed approach is experimentally validated using video recordings of communication sessions from real couples involved in a couples therapy study. In particular we use the head motion model to classify binarized expert judgments of the interactants’ specific behavioral characteristics where entrainment in head motion is hypothesized to play a role: Acceptance, Blame, Positive, and Negative behavior. We achieve accuracies in the range of 60% to 70% for the various experimental settings and conditions. In addition, we describe a measure of motion similarity between the interaction partners based on the proposed model. We show that the relative change of head motion similarity during the interaction significantly correlates with the expert judgments of the interactants’ behavioral characteristics. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed head motion model, and underscore the promise of analyzing human behavioral characteristics through signal processing methods. PMID:26557047

Hindsight bias and outcome bias in the social construction of medical negligence: a review.

PubMed

Hugh, Thomas B; Dekker, Sidney W A

2009-05-01

Medical negligence has been the subject of much public debate in recent decades. Although the steep increase in the frequency and size of claims against doctors at the end of the last century appears to have plateaued, in Australia at least, medical indemnity costs and consequences are still a matter of concern for doctors, medical defence organisations and governments in most developed countries. Imprecision in the legal definition of negligence opens the possibility that judgments of this issue at several levels may be subject to hindsight and outcome bias. Hindsight bias relates to the probability of an adverse event perceived by a retrospective observer ("I would have known it was going to happen"), while outcome bias is a largely subconscious cognitive distortion produced by the observer's knowledge of the adverse outcome. This review examines the relevant legal, medical, psychological and sociological literature on the operation of these pervasive and universal biases in the retrospective evaluation of adverse events. A finding of medical negligence is essentially an after-the-event social construction and is invariably affected by hindsight bias and knowledge of the adverse outcome. Such biases obviously pose a threat to the fairness of judgments. A number of debiasing strategies have been suggested but are relatively ineffective because of the universality and strength of these biases and the inherent difficulty of concealing from expert witnesses knowledge of the outcome. Education about the effect of the biases is therefore important for lawyers, medical expert witnesses and the judiciary.

Nature Disaster Risk Evaluation with a Group Decision Making Method Based on Incomplete Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relations.

PubMed

Tang, Ming; Liao, Huchang; Li, Zongmin; Xu, Zeshui

2018-04-13

Because the natural disaster system is a very comprehensive and large system, the disaster reduction scheme must rely on risk analysis. Experts' knowledge and experiences play a critical role in disaster risk assessment. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is an effective tool to express experts' preference information when comparing pairwise alternatives. Owing to the lack of knowledge or a heavy workload, information may be missed in the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Thus, an incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation is constructed. In this paper, we firstly discuss some properties of the additive consistent hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation. Next, the incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, the normalized hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation, and the acceptable hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation are defined. Afterwards, three procedures to estimate the missing information are proposed. The first one deals with the situation in which there are only n-1 known judgments involving all the alternatives; the second one is used to estimate the missing information of the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation with more known judgments; while the third procedure is used to deal with ignorance situations in which there is at least one alternative with totally missing information. Furthermore, an algorithm for group decision making with incomplete hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relations is given. Finally, we illustrate our model with a case study about flood disaster risk evaluation. A comparative analysis is presented to testify the advantage of our method.

Validation of a clinical critical thinking skills test in nursing.

PubMed

Shin, Sujin; Jung, Dukyoo; Kim, Sungeun

2015-01-27

The purpose of this study was to develop a revised version of the clinical critical thinking skills test (CCTS) and to subsequently validate its performance. This study is a secondary analysis of the CCTS. Data were obtained from a convenience sample of 284 college students in June 2011. Thirty items were analyzed using item response theory and test reliability was assessed. Test-retest reliability was measured using the results of 20 nursing college and graduate school students in July 2013. The content validity of the revised items was analyzed by calculating the degree of agreement between instrument developer intention in item development and the judgments of six experts. To analyze response process validity, qualitative data related to the response processes of nine nursing college students obtained through cognitive interviews were analyzed. Out of initial 30 items, 11 items were excluded after the analysis of difficulty and discrimination parameter. When the 19 items of the revised version of the CCTS were analyzed, levels of item difficulty were found to be relatively low and levels of discrimination were found to be appropriate or high. The degree of agreement between item developer intention and expert judgments equaled or exceeded 50%. From above results, evidence of the response process validity was demonstrated, indicating that subjects respondeds as intended by the test developer. The revised 19-item CCTS was found to have sufficient reliability and validity and will therefore represents a more convenient measurement of critical thinking ability.

Validation of a clinical critical thinking skills test in nursing

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop a revised version of the clinical critical thinking skills test (CCTS) and to subsequently validate its performance. Methods: This study is a secondary analysis of the CCTS. Data were obtained from a convenience sample of 284 college students in June 2011. Thirty items were analyzed using item response theory and test reliability was assessed. Test-retest reliability was measured using the results of 20 nursing college and graduate school students in July 2013. The content validity of the revised items was analyzed by calculating the degree of agreement between instrument developer intention in item development and the judgments of six experts. To analyze response process validity, qualitative data related to the response processes of nine nursing college students obtained through cognitive interviews were analyzed. Results: Out of initial 30 items, 11 items were excluded after the analysis of difficulty and discrimination parameter. When the 19 items of the revised version of the CCTS were analyzed, levels of item difficulty were found to be relatively low and levels of discrimination were found to be appropriate or high. The degree of agreement between item developer intention and expert judgments equaled or exceeded 50%. Conclusion: From above results, evidence of the response process validity was demonstrated, indicating that subjects respondeds as intended by the test developer. The revised 19-item CCTS was found to have sufficient reliability and validity and will therefore represents a more convenient measurement of critical thinking ability. PMID:25622716

Physician Bayesian updating from personal beliefs about the base rate and likelihood ratio.

PubMed

Rottman, Benjamin Margolin

2017-02-01

Whether humans can accurately make decisions in line with Bayes' rule has been one of the most important yet contentious topics in cognitive psychology. Though a number of paradigms have been used for studying Bayesian updating, rarely have subjects been allowed to use their own preexisting beliefs about the prior and the likelihood. A study is reported in which physicians judged the posttest probability of a diagnosis for a patient vignette after receiving a test result, and the physicians' posttest judgments were compared to the normative posttest calculated from their own beliefs in the sensitivity and false positive rate of the test (likelihood ratio) and prior probability of the diagnosis. On the one hand, the posttest judgments were strongly related to the physicians' beliefs about both the prior probability as well as the likelihood ratio, and the priors were used considerably more strongly than in previous research. On the other hand, both the prior and the likelihoods were still not used quite as much as they should have been, and there was evidence of other nonnormative aspects to the updating, such as updating independent of the likelihood beliefs. By focusing on how physicians use their own prior beliefs for Bayesian updating, this study provides insight into how well experts perform probabilistic inference in settings in which they rely upon their own prior beliefs rather than experimenter-provided cues. It suggests that there is reason to be optimistic about experts' abilities, but that there is still considerable need for improvement.

Perceptual analyses of spasmodic dysphonia before and after treatment.

PubMed

Cannito, Michael P; Woodson, Gayle E; Murry, Thomas; Bender, Brenda

2004-12-01

To evaluate expert listeners' perceptions of voice and fluency in persons with adductor spasmodic dysphonia (ADSD) before and after treatment with botulinum toxin type A (Botox), as a function of initial severity of the disorder (while controlling for patients' age at injection). Simple before-and-after trial with blinded randomized listener judgments. Ambulatory care clinic at a single medical center. Forty-two consecutive patients with ADSD who underwent examination, with a 3- to 6-week follow-up, after initial botulinum toxin type A injection. There were also 42 age- and sex-matched healthy control subjects. Injections of botulinum toxin type A into the thyroarytenoid muscle(s). Computer-implemented visual analog scaling judgments of voice quality and speech fluency made by expert listeners under psychoacoustically controlled conditions. Response to botulinum toxin type A varied markedly as a function of pretreatment severity of ADSD. More severe initial symptoms exhibited greater magnitudes of improvement. Patients with mild dysphonia did not exhibit pretreatment to posttreatment change. Following treatment, voice and fluency remained significantly (P<.05) poorer in ADSD than in healthy speakers. Older patients exhibited less improvement than younger patients when the effect of initial severity was statistically controlled. Voice quality and fluency improved for most patients following treatment, but older patients and those with milder dysphonia exhibited the least optimal responses to the procedure. Patients who were profoundly impaired demonstrated the greatest amount of improvement. Computer-implemented visual analog scaling provided a reliable clinical tool for determining treatment-related changes in those with ADSD.

Tracking and data relay satellite fault isolation and correction using PACES: Power and attitude control expert system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erikson, Carol-Lee; Hooker, Peggy

1989-01-01

The Power and Attitude Control Expert System (PACES) is an object oriented and rule based expert system which provides spacecraft engineers with assistance in isolating and correcting problems within the Power and Attitude Control Subsystems of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS). PACES is designed to act in a consultant role. It will not interface to telemetry data, thus preserving full operator control over spacecraft operations. The spacecraft engineer will input requested information. This information will include telemetry data, action being performed, problem characteristics, spectral characteristics, and judgments of spacecraft functioning. Questions are answered either by clicking on appropriate responses (for text), or entering numeric values. A context sensitive help facility allows access to additional information when the user has difficulty understanding a question or deciding on an answer. The major functionality of PACES is to act as a knowledge rich system which includes block diagrams, text, and graphics, linked using hypermedia techniques. This allows easy movement among pieces of the knowledge. Considerable documentation of the spacecraft Power and Attitude Control Subsystems is embedded within PACES. The development phase of TDRSS expert system technology is intended to provide NASA with the necessary expertise and capability to define requirements, evaluate proposals, and monitor the development progress of a highly competent expert system for NASA's Tracking and Data Relay Satellite Program.

On System Engineering a Barter-Based Re-allocation of Space System Key Development Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosmann, William J.

NASA has had a decades-long problem with cost growth during the development of space science missions. Numerous agency-sponsored studies have produced average mission level development cost growths ranging from 23 to 77%. A new study of 26 historical NASA science instrument set developments using expert judgment to re-allocate key development resources has an average cost growth of 73.77%. Twice in history, during the Cassini and EOS-Terra science instrument developments, a barter-based mechanism has been used to re-allocate key development resources. The mean instrument set development cost growth was -1.55%. Performing a bivariate inference on the means of these two distributions, there is statistical evidence to support the claim that using a barter-based mechanism to re-allocate key instrument development resources will result in a lower expected cost growth than using the expert judgment approach. Agent-based discrete event simulation is the natural way to model a trade environment. A NetLogo agent-based barter-based simulation of science instrument development was created. The agent-based model was validated against the Cassini historical example, as the starting and ending instrument development conditions are available. The resulting validated agent-based barter-based science instrument resource re-allocation simulation was used to perform 300 instrument development simulations, using barter to re-allocate development resources. The mean cost growth was -3.365%. A bivariate inference on the means was performed to determine that additional significant statistical evidence exists to support a claim that using barter-based resource re-allocation will result in lower expected cost growth, with respect to the historical expert judgment approach. Barter-based key development resource re-allocation should work on science spacecraft development as well as it has worked on science instrument development. A new study of 28 historical NASA science spacecraft developments has an average cost growth of 46.04%. As barter-based key development resource re-allocation has never been tried in a spacecraft development, no historical results exist, and an inference on the means test is not possible. A simulation of using barter-based resource re-allocation should be developed. The NetLogo instrument development simulation should be modified to account for spacecraft development market participant differences. The resulting agent-based barter-based spacecraft resource re-allocation simulation would then be used to determine if significant statistical evidence exists to prove a claim that using barter-based resource re-allocation will result in lower expected cost growth.

Procalcitonin and C-reactive protein as markers of bacterial infection in critically ill children at onset of systemic inflammatory response syndrome.

PubMed

Simon, Liliana; Saint-Louis, Patrick; Amre, Devendra K; Lacroix, Jacques; Gauvin, France

2008-07-01

To compare the accuracy of procalcitonin and C-reactive protein as diagnostic markers of bacterial infection in critically ill children at the onset of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). Prospective cohort study. Tertiary care, university-affiliated pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Consecutive patients with SIRS. From June to December 2002, all PICU patients were screened daily to include cases of SIRS. At inclusion (onset of SIRS), procalcitonin and C-reactive protein levels as well as an array of cultures were obtained. Diagnosis of bacterial infection was made a posteriori by an adjudicating process (consensus of experts unaware of the results of procalcitonin and C-reactive protein). Baseline and daily data on severity of illness, organ dysfunction, and outcome were collected. Sixty-four patients were included in the study and were a posteriori divided into the following groups: bacterial SIRS (n = 25) and nonbacterial SIRS (n = 39). Procalcitonin levels were significantly higher in patients with bacterial infection compared with patients without bacterial infection (p = .01). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for procalcitonin was greater than that for C-reactive protein (0.71 vs. 0.65, respectively). A positive procalcitonin level (>or=2.5 ng/mL), when added to bedside clinical judgment, increased the likelihood of bacterial infection from 39% to 92%, while a negative C-reactive protein level (<40 mg/L) decreased the probability of bacterial infection from 39% to 2%. Procalcitonin is better than C-reactive protein for differentiating bacterial from nonbacterial SIRS in critically ill children, although the accuracy of both tests is moderate. Diagnostic accuracy could be enhanced by combining these tests with bedside clinical judgment.

The Arithmetic of Emotion: Integration of Incidental and Integral Affect in Judgments and Decisions

PubMed Central

Västfjäll, Daniel; Slovic, Paul; Burns, William J.; Erlandsson, Arvid; Koppel, Lina; Asutay, Erkin; Tinghög, Gustav

2016-01-01

Research has demonstrated that two types of affect have an influence on judgment and decision making: incidental affect (affect unrelated to a judgment or decision such as a mood) and integral affect (affect that is part of the perceiver’s internal representation of the option or target under consideration). So far, these two lines of research have seldom crossed so that knowledge concerning their combined effects is largely missing. To fill this gap, the present review highlights differences and similarities between integral and incidental affect. Further, common and unique mechanisms that enable these two types of affect to influence judgment and choices are identified. Finally, some basic principles for affect integration when the two sources co-occur are outlined. These mechanisms are discussed in relation to existing work that has focused on incidental or integral affect but not both. PMID:27014136

Image statistics for surface reflectance perception.

PubMed

Sharan, Lavanya; Li, Yuanzhen; Motoyoshi, Isamu; Nishida, Shin'ya; Adelson, Edward H

2008-04-01

Human observers can distinguish the albedo of real-world surfaces even when the surfaces are viewed in isolation, contrary to the Gelb effect. We sought to measure this ability and to understand the cues that might underlie it. We took photographs of complex surfaces such as stucco and asked observers to judge their diffuse reflectance by comparing them to a physical Munsell scale. Their judgments, while imperfect, were highly correlated with the true reflectance. The judgments were also highly correlated with certain image statistics, such as moment and percentile statistics of the luminance and subband histograms. When we digitally manipulated these statistics in an image, human judgments were correspondingly altered. Moreover, linear combinations of such statistics allow a machine vision system (operating within the constrained world of single surfaces) to estimate albedo with an accuracy similar to that of human observers. Taken together, these results indicate that some simple image statistics have a strong influence on the judgment of surface reflectance.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Late health effects uncertain assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R.; Goossens, L.H.J.

1997-12-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library ofmore » uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the expert panel on late health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.« less

The Potential of Automatic Word Comparison for Historical Linguistics.

PubMed

List, Johann-Mattis; Greenhill, Simon J; Gray, Russell D

2017-01-01

The amount of data from languages spoken all over the world is rapidly increasing. Traditional manual methods in historical linguistics need to face the challenges brought by this influx of data. Automatic approaches to word comparison could provide invaluable help to pre-analyze data which can be later enhanced by experts. In this way, computational approaches can take care of the repetitive and schematic tasks leaving experts to concentrate on answering interesting questions. Here we test the potential of automatic methods to detect etymologically related words (cognates) in cross-linguistic data. Using a newly compiled database of expert cognate judgments across five different language families, we compare how well different automatic approaches distinguish related from unrelated words. Our results show that automatic methods can identify cognates with a very high degree of accuracy, reaching 89% for the best-performing method Infomap. We identify the specific strengths and weaknesses of these different methods and point to major challenges for future approaches. Current automatic approaches for cognate detection-although not perfect-could become an important component of future research in historical linguistics.

The Potential of Automatic Word Comparison for Historical Linguistics

PubMed Central

Greenhill, Simon J.; Gray, Russell D.

2017-01-01

The amount of data from languages spoken all over the world is rapidly increasing. Traditional manual methods in historical linguistics need to face the challenges brought by this influx of data. Automatic approaches to word comparison could provide invaluable help to pre-analyze data which can be later enhanced by experts. In this way, computational approaches can take care of the repetitive and schematic tasks leaving experts to concentrate on answering interesting questions. Here we test the potential of automatic methods to detect etymologically related words (cognates) in cross-linguistic data. Using a newly compiled database of expert cognate judgments across five different language families, we compare how well different automatic approaches distinguish related from unrelated words. Our results show that automatic methods can identify cognates with a very high degree of accuracy, reaching 89% for the best-performing method Infomap. We identify the specific strengths and weaknesses of these different methods and point to major challenges for future approaches. Current automatic approaches for cognate detection—although not perfect—could become an important component of future research in historical linguistics. PMID:28129337

Application of omics data in regulatory toxicology: report of an international BfR expert workshop.

PubMed

Marx-Stoelting, P; Braeuning, A; Buhrke, T; Lampen, A; Niemann, L; Oelgeschlaeger, M; Rieke, S; Schmidt, F; Heise, T; Pfeil, R; Solecki, R

2015-11-01

Advances in omics techniques and molecular toxicology are necessary to provide new perspectives for regulatory toxicology. By the application of modern molecular techniques, more mechanistic information should be gained to support standard toxicity studies and to contribute to a reduction and refinement of animal experiments required for certain regulatory purposes. The relevance and applicability of data obtained by omics methods to regulatory purposes such as grouping of chemicals, mode of action analysis or classification and labelling needs further improvement, defined validation and cautious expert judgment. Based on the results of an international expert workshop organized 2014 by the Federal Institute for Risk Assessment in Berlin, this paper is aimed to provide a critical overview of the regulatory relevance and reliability of omics methods, basic requirements on data quality and validation, as well as regulatory criteria to decide which effects observed by omics methods should be considered adverse or non-adverse. As a way forward, it was concluded that the inclusion of omics data can facilitate a more flexible approach for regulatory risk assessment and may help to reduce or refine animal testing.

Human judgment vs. quantitative models for the management of ecological resources.

PubMed

Holden, Matthew H; Ellner, Stephen P

2016-07-01

Despite major advances in quantitative approaches to natural resource management, there has been resistance to using these tools in the actual practice of managing ecological populations. Given a managed system and a set of assumptions, translated into a model, optimization methods can be used to solve for the most cost-effective management actions. However, when the underlying assumptions are not met, such methods can potentially lead to decisions that harm the environment and economy. Managers who develop decisions based on past experience and judgment, without the aid of mathematical models, can potentially learn about the system and develop flexible management strategies. However, these strategies are often based on subjective criteria and equally invalid and often unstated assumptions. Given the drawbacks of both methods, it is unclear whether simple quantitative models improve environmental decision making over expert opinion. In this study, we explore how well students, using their experience and judgment, manage simulated fishery populations in an online computer game and compare their management outcomes to the performance of model-based decisions. We consider harvest decisions generated using four different quantitative models: (1) the model used to produce the simulated population dynamics observed in the game, with the values of all parameters known (as a control), (2) the same model, but with unknown parameter values that must be estimated during the game from observed data, (3) models that are structurally different from those used to simulate the population dynamics, and (4) a model that ignores age structure. Humans on average performed much worse than the models in cases 1-3, but in a small minority of scenarios, models produced worse outcomes than those resulting from students making decisions based on experience and judgment. When the models ignored age structure, they generated poorly performing management decisions, but still outperformed students using experience and judgment 66% of the time. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Pre- and posttreatment voice and speech outcomes in patients with advanced head and neck cancer treated with chemoradiotherapy: expert listeners' and patient's perception.

PubMed

van der Molen, Lisette; van Rossum, Maya A; Jacobi, Irene; van Son, Rob J J H; Smeele, Ludi E; Rasch, Coen R N; Hilgers, Frans J M

2012-09-01

Perceptual judgments and patients' perception of voice and speech after concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) for advanced head and neck cancer. Prospective clinical trial. A standard Dutch text and a diadochokinetic task were recorded. Expert listeners rated voice and speech quality (based on Grade, Roughness, Breathiness, Asthenia, and Strain), articulation (overall, [p], [t], [k]), and comparative mean opinion scores of voice and speech at three assessment points calculated. A structured study-specific questionnaire evaluated patients' perception pretreatment (N=55), at 10-week (N=49) and 1-year posttreatment (N=37). At 10 weeks, perceptual voice quality is significantly affected. The parameters overall voice quality (mean, -0.24; P=0.008), strain (mean, -0.12; P=0.012), nasality (mean, -0.08; P=0.009), roughness (mean, -0.22; P=0.001), and pitch (mean, -0.03; P=0.041) improved over time but not beyond baseline levels, except for asthenia at 1-year posttreatment (voice is less asthenic than at baseline; mean, +0.20; P=0.03). Perceptual analyses of articulation showed no significant differences. Patients judge their voice quality as good (score, 18/20) at all assessment points, but at 1-year posttreatment, most of them (70%) judge their "voice not as it used to be." In the 1-year versus 10-week posttreatment comparison, the larynx-hypopharynx tumor group was more strained, whereas nonlarynx tumor voices were judged less strained (mean, -0.33 and +0.07, respectively; P=0.031). Patients' perceived changes in voice and speech quality at 10-week post- versus pretreatment correlate weakly with expert judgments. Overall, perceptual CCRT effects on voice and speech seem to peak at 10-week posttreatment but level off at 1-year posttreatment. However, at that assessment point, most patients still perceive their voice as different from baseline. Copyright © 2012 The Voice Foundation. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Logopenic and Nonfluent Variants of Primary Progressive Aphasia Are Differentiated by Acoustic Measures of Speech Production

PubMed Central

Ballard, Kirrie J.; Savage, Sharon; Leyton, Cristian E.; Vogel, Adam P.; Hornberger, Michael; Hodges, John R.

2014-01-01

Differentiation of logopenic (lvPPA) and nonfluent/agrammatic (nfvPPA) variants of Primary Progressive Aphasia is important yet remains challenging since it hinges on expert based evaluation of speech and language production. In this study acoustic measures of speech in conjunction with voxel-based morphometry were used to determine the success of the measures as an adjunct to diagnosis and to explore the neural basis of apraxia of speech in nfvPPA. Forty-one patients (21 lvPPA, 20 nfvPPA) were recruited from a consecutive sample with suspected frontotemporal dementia. Patients were diagnosed using the current gold-standard of expert perceptual judgment, based on presence/absence of particular speech features during speaking tasks. Seventeen healthy age-matched adults served as controls. MRI scans were available for 11 control and 37 PPA cases; 23 of the PPA cases underwent amyloid ligand PET imaging. Measures, corresponding to perceptual features of apraxia of speech, were periods of silence during reading and relative vowel duration and intensity in polysyllable word repetition. Discriminant function analyses revealed that a measure of relative vowel duration differentiated nfvPPA cases from both control and lvPPA cases (r 2 = 0.47) with 88% agreement with expert judgment of presence of apraxia of speech in nfvPPA cases. VBM analysis showed that relative vowel duration covaried with grey matter intensity in areas critical for speech motor planning and programming: precentral gyrus, supplementary motor area and inferior frontal gyrus bilaterally, only affected in the nfvPPA group. This bilateral involvement of frontal speech networks in nfvPPA potentially affects access to compensatory mechanisms involving right hemisphere homologues. Measures of silences during reading also discriminated the PPA and control groups, but did not increase predictive accuracy. Findings suggest that a measure of relative vowel duration from of a polysyllable word repetition task may be sufficient for detecting most cases of apraxia of speech and distinguishing between nfvPPA and lvPPA. PMID:24587083

The challenges and rewards of engaging a skeptical public

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Findings published in this issue suggest that a substantial subset of the Israeli public generally trusts government, yet is determined to make their own judgments about the need for precautionary action in certain types of public health emergencies. This reflective approach, which may be common in other countries as well, poses a substantial challenge to achieving desired levels of compliance, particularly when the threat requires swift and concerted action. The aim of this commentary is to discuss both the challenges and the rewards of engaging a public that wants to weigh evidence prior to taking action in an emergency, rather than defer to expert judgment. While engaging a skeptical public can be difficult, a reflective public acknowledges that preparedness is a shared responsibility of government and individuals and may be receptive to messages about the need for household and community self-sufficiency in a disaster. This is a commentary on the article “Analysis of Public Responses to Preparedness Policies” by Velan and colleagues. PMID:23537194

Audiovisual Simultaneity Judgment and Rapid Recalibration throughout the Lifespan.

PubMed

Noel, Jean-Paul; De Niear, Matthew; Van der Burg, Erik; Wallace, Mark T

2016-01-01

Multisensory interactions are well established to convey an array of perceptual and behavioral benefits. One of the key features of multisensory interactions is the temporal structure of the stimuli combined. In an effort to better characterize how temporal factors influence multisensory interactions across the lifespan, we examined audiovisual simultaneity judgment and the degree of rapid recalibration to paired audiovisual stimuli (Flash-Beep and Speech) in a sample of 220 participants ranging from 7 to 86 years of age. Results demonstrate a surprisingly protracted developmental time-course for both audiovisual simultaneity judgment and rapid recalibration, with neither reaching maturity until well into adolescence. Interestingly, correlational analyses revealed that audiovisual simultaneity judgments (i.e., the size of the audiovisual temporal window of simultaneity) and rapid recalibration significantly co-varied as a function of age. Together, our results represent the most complete description of age-related changes in audiovisual simultaneity judgments to date, as well as being the first to describe changes in the degree of rapid recalibration as a function of age. We propose that the developmental time-course of rapid recalibration scaffolds the maturation of more durable audiovisual temporal representations.

[The pandemic of the experts in the mass media. How to create trust in public communication by acknowledging ignorance and uncertainty].

PubMed

Stollorz, V

2013-01-01

The first influenza pandemic in the twenty-first century is an example of how public trust in expert recommendations can erode if prognostic ability of these experts is suddenly doubted in the mass media. A highly consonant pandemic alarm communicated through the mass media can later cause heightened resonance concerning the appropriateness of the same alarm. In this case a paradoxical effect can develop, in which the same media outlet first paints an overly risky picture of an unfolding pandemic only to later condemn this assessment as alarmist. Can such behavior be considered a defect of journalism? In this article I describe the circumstances under which such media dynamics and "hypes" without trust in expertise are more likely to develop: when there is nontransparent decision making; when uncertainty and nescience of expert judgments are not communicated transparently; when warnings and measures taken are not readily adapted to the evolving risk situation in reality. If these basic principles are recognized in future pandemic risk communication, long-term public trust in scientific expertise can be secured. In this way, despite a public health crisis, a long-lasting break in the credibility of sound science can be avoided.

Cognitive task analysis for instruction in single-injection ultrasound guided-regional anesthesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gucev, Gligor V.

Cognitive task analysis (CTA) is methodology for eliciting knowledge from subject matter experts. CTA has been used to capture the cognitive processes, decision-making, and judgments that underlie expert behaviors. A review of the literature revealed that CTA has not yet been used to capture the knowledge required to perform ultrasound guided regional anesthesia (UGRA). The purpose of this study was to utilize CTA to extract knowledge from UGRA experts and to determine whether instruction based on CTA of UGRA will produce results superior to the results of traditional training. This study adds to the knowledge base of CTA in being the first one to effectively capture the expert knowledge of UGRA. The derived protocol was used in a randomized, double blinded experiment involving UGRA instruction to 39 novice learners. The results of this study strongly support the hypothesis that CTA-based instruction in UGRA is more effective than conventional clinical instruction, as measured by conceptual pre- and post-tests, performance of a simulated UGRA procedure, and time necessary for the task performance. This study adds to the number of studies that have proven the superiority of CTA-informed instruction. Finally, it produced several validated instruments that can be used in instructing and evaluating UGRA.

A theoretical framework for holistic hospital management in the Japanese healthcare context.

PubMed

Liu, Hu-Chen

2013-11-01

This paper develops a conceptual framework for performance measurement as a pilot study on holistic hospital management in the Japanese healthcare context. We primarily used two data sources as well as expert statements obtained through interviews: a systematic review of literature and a questionnaire survey to healthcare experts. The systematic survey searched PubMed and PubMed Central, and 24 relevant papers were elicited. The expert questionnaire asked respondents to rate the degree of "usefulness" for each of 66 indicators on a three-point scale. Applying the theoretical framework, a minimum set of performance indicators was selected for holistic hospital management, which well fit the healthcare context in Japan. This indicator set comprised 35 individual indicators and several factors measured through questionnaire surveys. The indicators were confirmed by expert judgments from viewpoints of face, content and construct validities as well as their usefulness. A theoretical framework of performance measurement was established from primary healthcare stakeholders' perspectives. Performance indicators were largely divided into healthcare outcomes and performance shaping factors. Indicators in the former category may be applied for the detection of operational problems, while their latent causes can be effectively addressed by the latter category in terms of process, structure and culture/climate within the organization. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The ADA's practice parameters.

PubMed

Ellek, Donalda M

2005-01-01

The ADA parameters of care have served the needs of practicing dentists for fifteen years. Their purpose is to describe a range of treatment options that dentists will want to consider, in combination with particular clinical conditions and patient preferences. These options have been developed based on available evidence and a consensus of professional judgment. The ADA has exercised concern that parameters not be used, out of the context of individual professional judgment, for policy purposes.

Effects of Incidental Emotions on Moral Dilemma Judgments: An Analysis Using the CNI Model.

PubMed

Gawronski, Bertram; Conway, Paul; Armstrong, Joel; Friesdorf, Rebecca; Hütter, Mandy

2018-02-01

Effects of incidental emotions on moral dilemma judgments have garnered interest because they demonstrate the context-dependent nature of moral decision-making. Six experiments (N = 727) investigated the effects of incidental happiness, sadness, and anger on responses in moral dilemmas that pit the consequences of a given action for the greater good (i.e., utilitarianism) against the consistency of that action with moral norms (i.e., deontology). Using the CNI model of moral decision-making, we further tested whether the three kinds of emotions shape moral dilemma judgments by influencing (a) sensitivity to consequences, (b) sensitivity to moral norms, or (c) general preference for inaction versus action regardless of consequences and moral norms (or some combination of the three). Incidental happiness reduced sensitivity to moral norms without affecting sensitivity to consequences or general preference for inaction versus action. Incidental sadness and incidental anger did not show any significant effects on moral dilemma judgments. The findings suggest a central role of moral norms in the contribution of emotional responses to moral dilemma judgments, requiring refinements of dominant theoretical accounts and supporting the value of formal modeling approaches in providing more nuanced insights into the determinants of moral dilemma judgments. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Using Discrete Event Simulation to predict KPI's at a Projected Emergency Room.

PubMed

Concha, Pablo; Neriz, Liliana; Parada, Danilo; Ramis, Francisco

2015-01-01

Discrete Event Simulation (DES) is a powerful factor in the design of clinical facilities. DES enables facilities to be built or adapted to achieve the expected Key Performance Indicators (KPI's) such as average waiting times according to acuity, average stay times and others. Our computational model was built and validated using expert judgment and supporting statistical data. One scenario studied resulted in a 50% decrease in the average cycle time of patients compared to the original model, mainly by modifying the patient's attention model.

A Framework for Evidence-Based Licensure of Adaptive Autonomous Systems: Technical Areas

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

subjective judgments by human experts . They are design dependent, but address questions of whether the system is performing as needed, as opposed...I N S T I T U T E F O R D E F E N S E A N A L Y S E S A Framework for Evidence-Based Licensure of Adaptive Autonomous Systems : Technical Areas...and Licensure of Autonomous Systems ,” for the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). The views, opinions, and findings should not be construed as

High throughput light absorber discovery, Part 1: An algorithm for automated tauc analysis

DOE PAGES

Suram, Santosh K.; Newhouse, Paul F.; Gregoire, John M.

2016-09-23

High-throughput experimentation provides efficient mapping of composition-property relationships, and its implementation for the discovery of optical materials enables advancements in solar energy and other technologies. In a high throughput pipeline, automated data processing algorithms are often required to match experimental throughput, and we present an automated Tauc analysis algorithm for estimating band gap energies from optical spectroscopy data. The algorithm mimics the judgment of an expert scientist, which is demonstrated through its application to a variety of high throughput spectroscopy data, including the identification of indirect or direct band gaps in Fe 2O 3, Cu 2V 2O 7, and BiVOmore » 4. Here, the applicability of the algorithm to estimate a range of band gap energies for various materials is demonstrated by a comparison of direct-allowed band gaps estimated by expert scientists and by automated algorithm for 60 optical spectra.« less

Politics or Technocracy – What Next for Global Health?

PubMed Central

Kickbusch, Ilona

2016-01-01

Politics play a central part in determining health and development outcomes as Gorik Ooms highlights in his recent commentary. As health becomes more global and more politicized the need grows to better understand the inherently political processes at all levels of governance, such as ideological positions, ideas, value judgments, and power. I agree that global health research should strengthen its contribution to generating such knowledge by drawing more on political science, such research is gaining ground. Even more important is – as Ooms indicates – that global health scholars better understand their own role in the political process. It is time to acknowledge that expert-based technocratic approaches are no less political. We will need to reflect and analyse the role of experts in global health governance to a greater extent and in that context explore the links between politics, expertise and democracy. PMID:26927593

Study on Failure of Third-Party Damage for Urban Gas Pipeline Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Jun; Zhang, Hong; Han, Yinshan; Wang, Baodong

2016-01-01

Focusing on the diversity, complexity and uncertainty of the third-party damage accident, the failure probability of third-party damage to urban gas pipeline was evaluated on the theory of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics. The fault tree of third-party damage containing 56 basic events was built by hazard identification of third-party damage. The fuzzy evaluation of basic event probabilities were conducted by the expert judgment method and using membership function of fuzzy set. The determination of the weight of each expert and the modification of the evaluation opinions were accomplished using the improved analytic hierarchy process, and the failure possibility of the third-party to urban gas pipeline was calculated. Taking gas pipelines of a certain large provincial capital city as an example, the risk assessment structure of the method was proved to conform to the actual situation, which provides the basis for the safety risk prevention.

Clinic expert information extraction based on domain model and block importance model.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuanpeng; Wang, Li; Qian, Danmin; Geng, Xingyun; Yao, Dengfu; Dong, Jiancheng

2015-11-01

To extract expert clinic information from the Deep Web, there are two challenges to face. The first one is to make a judgment on forms. A novel method based on a domain model, which is a tree structure constructed by the attributes of query interfaces is proposed. With this model, query interfaces can be classified to a domain and filled in with domain keywords. Another challenge is to extract information from response Web pages indexed by query interfaces. To filter the noisy information on a Web page, a block importance model is proposed, both content and spatial features are taken into account in this model. The experimental results indicate that the domain model yields a precision 4.89% higher than that of the rule-based method, whereas the block importance model yields an F1 measure 10.5% higher than that of the XPath method. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of casthouse expert system for tapping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Takihira, K.; Ino, K.; Yamana, S.

1993-01-01

Although the standardization of casting operations is necessary to secure stable blast furnace operation, intuitive practices (which are by definition non-quantifiable) and experience are prevalent. Because BF operation is a field which is difficult to standardize and reduce to documentary form, the present work had as its goal the standardization of judgments and systematization of information related to taphole opening and closing. The project was carried out in the highly computerized environment at Mizushima No. 3 BF, where the authors introduced an expert system guidance function in February, 1992. Standardization of operations through the use of this guidance system andmore » the completion of guidance function development resulted in better consistency in taphole depths and optimization of the size of the taphole (taphole volume), which have in turn led to improvement in the pig/slag balance and a reduction in the time required for taphole opening.« less

Best Practices: How to Evaluate Psychological Science for Use by Organizations.

PubMed

Fiske, Susan T; Borgida, Eugene

2011-01-01

We discuss how organizations can evaluate psychological science for its potential usefulness to their own purposes. Common sense is often the default but inadequate alternative, and bench-marking supplies only collective hunches instead of validated principles. External validity is an empirical process of identifying moderator variables, not a simple yes-no judgment about whether lab results replicate in the field. Hence, convincing criteria must specify what constitutes high-quality empirical evidence for organizational use. First, we illustrate some theories and science that have potential use. Then we describe generally accepted criteria for scientific quality and consensus, starting with peer review for quality, and scientific agreement in forms ranging from surveys of experts to meta-analyses to National Research Council consensus reports. Linkages of basic science to organizations entail communicating expert scientific consensus, motivating managerial interest, and translating broad principles to specific contexts. We close with parting advice to both sides of the researcher-practitioner divide.

The effect of falsely balanced reporting of the autism-vaccine controversy on vaccine safety perceptions and behavioral intentions.

PubMed

Dixon, Graham; Clarke, Christopher

2013-04-01

Controversy surrounding an autism-vaccine link has elicited considerable news media attention. Despite being widely discredited, research suggests that journalists report this controversy by presenting claims both for and against a link in a relatively 'balanced' fashion. To investigate how this reporting style influences judgments of vaccine risk, we randomly assigned 320 undergraduate participants to read a news article presenting either claims both for/against an autism-vaccine link, link claims only, no-link claims only or non-health-related information. Participants who read the balanced article were less certain that vaccines are safe, more likely to believe experts were less certain that vaccines are safe and less likely to have their future children vaccinated. Results suggest that balancing conflicting views of the autism-vaccine controversy may lead readers to erroneously infer the state of expert knowledge regarding vaccine safety and negatively impact vaccine intentions.

Can Simple Transmission Chains Foster Collective Intelligence in Binary-Choice Tasks?

PubMed

Moussaïd, Mehdi; Seyed Yahosseini, Kyanoush

2016-01-01

In many social systems, groups of individuals can find remarkably efficient solutions to complex cognitive problems, sometimes even outperforming a single expert. The success of the group, however, crucially depends on how the judgments of the group members are aggregated to produce the collective answer. A large variety of such aggregation methods have been described in the literature, such as averaging the independent judgments, relying on the majority or setting up a group discussion. In the present work, we introduce a novel approach for aggregating judgments-the transmission chain-which has not yet been consistently evaluated in the context of collective intelligence. In a transmission chain, all group members have access to a unique collective solution and can improve it sequentially. Over repeated improvements, the collective solution that emerges reflects the judgments of every group members. We address the question of whether such a transmission chain can foster collective intelligence for binary-choice problems. In a series of numerical simulations, we explore the impact of various factors on the performance of the transmission chain, such as the group size, the model parameters, and the structure of the population. The performance of this method is compared to those of the majority rule and the confidence-weighted majority. Finally, we rely on two existing datasets of individuals performing a series of binary decisions to evaluate the expected performances of the three methods empirically. We find that the parameter space where the transmission chain has the best performance rarely appears in real datasets. We conclude that the transmission chain is best suited for other types of problems, such as those that have cumulative properties.

Evidence-based medicine, clinical practice guidelines, and common sense in the management of osteoporosis.

PubMed

Lewiecki, E Michael; Binkley, Neil

2009-01-01

To evaluate the benefits and limitations of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), clinical practice guidelines (CPGs), and clinical judgment in the management of osteoporosis. A review was conducted of the English-language literature on the origins and applications of RCTs, CPGs, evidence-based medicine, and clinical judgment in the management of osteoporosis. Evidence-based medicine is use of the currently available best evidence in making clinical decisions for individual patients. CPGs are recommendations for making clinical decisions based on research evidence, sometimes with consideration of expert opinion, health care policy, and costs of care. The highest levels of medical evidence are usually thought to be RCTs and meta-analyses of high-quality RCTs. Although it is desirable and appropriate for clinicians to consider research evidence from RCTs and recommendations presented in CPGs in making clinical decisions, other factors-such as patient preference, comorbidities, affordability, and availability of care-are important for the actual implementation of evidence-based medicine. Decisions about who to treat, which drug to use, how best to monitor, and how long to treat require clinical skills in addition to knowledge of medical research. The necessity of integrating common sense and clinical judgment is highlighted by the fact that many patients treated for osteoporosis in clinical practice would not qualify for participation in the pivotal clinical trials that demonstrated efficacy and safety of the drugs used to treat them.

Consensus document for the use of the Polypill in the secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

González-Juanatey, José Ramón; Mostaza, José María; Lobos, José María; Abarca, Benjamín; Llisterri, José Luis; Baron-Esquivias, Gonzalo; Galve, Enrique; Lidón, Rosa María; Garcia-Moll, Francisco Xavier; Sánchez, Pedro Luis; Suárez, Carmen; Millán, Jesús; Pallares, Vicente; Alemán, José Juan; Egocheaga, Isabel

2017-02-09

Cardiovascular disease is a chronic disorder which is usually already at an advanced stage when the first symptoms develop. The fact that the initial clinical presentation can be lethal or highly incapacitating emphasizes the need for primary and secondary prevention. It is estimated that the ratio of patients with good adherence to secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease is low and also decreases gradually over time. The Polypill for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease is the first fixed-dose combination therapy of salicylic acid, atorvastatin and ramipril approved in Spain. The purpose of this consensus document was to define and recommend, through the evidence available in the literature and clinical expert opinion, the impact of treatment adherence in the secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease and the use of the Polypill in daily clinical practice as part of a global strategy including adjustments in patient lifestyle. A RAND/UCLA methodology based on scientific evidence, as well as the collective judgment and clinical expertise of an expert panel was used for this assessment. As a result, a final report of recommendations on the impact of the lack of adherence to treatment of secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease and the effect of using a Polypill in adherence of patients was produced. The recommendations included in this document have been addressed to all those specialists, cardiologists, internists and primary care physicians with competence in prescribing and monitoring patients with high and very high cardiovascular risks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

The Navigation Guide systematic review methodology: a rigorous and transparent method for translating environmental health science into better health outcomes.

PubMed

Woodruff, Tracey J; Sutton, Patrice

2014-10-01

Synthesizing what is known about the environmental drivers of health is instrumental to taking prevention-oriented action. Methods of research synthesis commonly used in environmental health lag behind systematic review methods developed in the clinical sciences over the past 20 years. We sought to develop a proof of concept of the "Navigation Guide," a systematic and transparent method of research synthesis in environmental health. The Navigation Guide methodology builds on best practices in research synthesis in evidence-based medicine and environmental health. Key points of departure from current methods of expert-based narrative review prevalent in environmental health include a prespecified protocol, standardized and transparent documentation including expert judgment, a comprehensive search strategy, assessment of "risk of bias," and separation of the science from values and preferences. Key points of departure from evidence-based medicine include assigning a "moderate" quality rating to human observational studies and combining diverse evidence streams. The Navigation Guide methodology is a systematic and rigorous approach to research synthesis that has been developed to reduce bias and maximize transparency in the evaluation of environmental health information. Although novel aspects of the method will require further development and validation, our findings demonstrated that improved methods of research synthesis under development at the National Toxicology Program and under consideration by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are fully achievable. The institutionalization of robust methods of systematic and transparent review would provide a concrete mechanism for linking science to timely action to prevent harm.

[Fool's gold standards in language screening. Sensitivity and specificity of the Hessian child language screening test (Kindersprachscreening, KiSS)].

PubMed

Neumann, K; Holler-Zittlau, I; van Minnen, S; Sick, U; Zaretsky, Y; Euler, H A

2011-01-01

The German Kindersprachscreening (KiSS) is a universal speech and language screening test for large-scale identification of Hessian kindergarten children requiring special educational language training or clinical speech/language therapy. To calculate the procedural screening validity, 257 children (aged 4.0 to 4.5 years) were tested using KiSS and four language tests (Reynell Development Language Scales III, Patholinguistische Diagnostik, PLAKSS, AWST-R). The majority or consensus judgements of three speech-language professionals, based on the language test results, served as a reference criterion. The base (fail) rates of the professionals were either self-determined or preset based on known prevalence rates. Screening validity was higher for preset than for self-determined base rates due to higher inter-judge agreement. The confusion matrices of the overall index classification of the KiSS (speech-language abnormalities with educational or clinical needs) with the fixed base rate expert judgement about language impairment, including fluency or voice disorders, yielded a sensitivity of 88% and a specificity of 78%, for just language impairment 84% and 75%, respectively. Specificities for disorders requiring clinical diagnostics in the KiSS (language impairment alone or combined with fluency/voice disorders) related to the test-based consensus expert judgment was about 93%. Sensitivities were unsatisfactory because the differentiation between educational and clinical needs requires improvement. Since the judgement concordances between the speech-language professionals was only moderate, the development of a comprehensive German reference test for speech and language disorders with evidence-based algorithmic decision rules rather than subjective clinical judgement is advocated.

Collocational Processing in Light of the Phraseological Continuum Model: Does Semantic Transparency Matter?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gyllstad, Henrik; Wolter, Brent

2016-01-01

The present study investigates whether two types of word combinations (free combinations and collocations) differ in terms of processing by testing Howarth's Continuum Model based on word combination typologies from a phraseological tradition. A visual semantic judgment task was administered to advanced Swedish learners of English (n = 27) and…

Principal component analysis acceleration of rovibrational coarse-grain models for internal energy excitation and dissociation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellemans, Aurélie; Parente, Alessandro; Magin, Thierry

2018-04-01

The present work introduces a novel approach for obtaining reduced chemistry representations of large kinetic mechanisms in strong non-equilibrium conditions. The need for accurate reduced-order models arises from compression of large ab initio quantum chemistry databases for their use in fluid codes. The method presented in this paper builds on existing physics-based strategies and proposes a new approach based on the combination of a simple coarse grain model with Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The internal energy levels of the chemical species are regrouped in distinct energy groups with a uniform lumping technique. Following the philosophy of machine learning, PCA is applied on the training data provided by the coarse grain model to find an optimally reduced representation of the full kinetic mechanism. Compared to recently published complex lumping strategies, no expert judgment is required before the application of PCA. In this work, we will demonstrate the benefits of the combined approach, stressing its simplicity, reliability, and accuracy. The technique is demonstrated by reducing the complex quantum N2(g+1Σ) -N(S4u ) database for studying molecular dissociation and excitation in strong non-equilibrium. Starting from detailed kinetics, an accurate reduced model is developed and used to study non-equilibrium properties of the N2(g+1Σ) -N(S4u ) system in shock relaxation simulations.

Expert explanations of honeybee losses in areas of extensive agriculture in France: Gaucho® compared with other supposed causal factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxim, L.; van der Sluijs, J. P.

2010-01-01

Debates on causality are at the core of controversies as regards environmental changes. The present paper presents a new method for analyzing controversies on causality in a context of social debate and the results of its empirical testing. The case study used is the controversy as regards the role played by the insecticide Gaucho®, compared with other supposed causal factors, in the substantial honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) losses reported to have occurred in France between 1994 and 2004. The method makes use of expert elicitation of the perceived strength of evidence regarding each of Bradford Hill's causality criteria, as regards the link between each of eight possible causal factors identified in attempts to explain each of five signs observed in honeybee colonies. These judgments are elicited from stakeholders and experts involved in the debate, i.e., representatives of Bayer Cropscience, of the Ministry of Agriculture, of the French Food Safety Authority, of beekeepers and of public scientists. We show that the intense controversy observed in confused and passionate public discourses is much less salient when the various arguments are structured using causation criteria. The contradictions between the different expert views have a triple origin: (1) the lack of shared definition and quantification of the signs observed in colonies; (2) the lack of specialist knowledge on honeybees; and (3) the strategic discursive practices associated with the lack of trust between experts representing stakeholders having diverging stakes in the case.

Fashion versus perception: the impact of surface lightness on the perceived dimensions of interior space.

PubMed

Oberfeld, Daniel; Hecht, Heiko

2011-06-01

We compare expert opinion with perceptual judgment regarding the influence of color on the perceived height and width of interior rooms. We hypothesize that contrary to popular belief, ceiling and wall lightness have additive effects on perceived height, whereas the lightness contrast between these surfaces is less important. We assessed the intuitions of architectural experts as to which surface colors maximize apparent height and compared these intuitions with psychophysical height and width estimates for rooms differing in ceiling, floor, and wall lightness. Experiment 1 was a survey of architectural experts and nonexperts. Experiments 2 and 3 presented virtual rooms varying in physical height, physical width, and surface lightness. In Experiment 1, both experts and nonexperts erroneously assumed that the lightness contrast between ceiling and walls influences perceived height Experiment 2 showed that the lightness contrast does not determine apparent height but that ceiling and wall lightness have additive effects. Experiment 3 demonstrated a decrease in perceived width with physical height, whereas the perceived height was not related to physical width. Apparent width was unaffected by ceiling lightness. Light ceiling and light walls make a room appear higher, whereas floor color has a weaker effect. We also found evidence for an asymmetric interaction between height and width. The question of how to color walls and ceiling to maximize the apparent size of a room can be answered empirically. Aesthetic considerations may interfere with the correct assessment of the effects of color in experts.

The role of proximal body information on anticipatory judgment in tennis using graphical information richness.

PubMed

Fukuhara, Kazunobu; Ida, Hirofumi; Ogata, Takahiro; Ishii, Motonobu; Higuchi, Takahiro

2017-01-01

Recent studies have reported that skilled tennis players are likely to use proximal body information for anticipating the direction of their opponent's forehand shot. However, in these studies, the visual stimuli did not include visual information about the ball. Skilled players may have used proximal information owing to the lack of distal information. To address this issue, we developed a novel methodological approach using computer graphics (CG) images in which the entire body was presented by a combination of point-light display (i.e., poor graphical information, PLD) and polygons (i.e., rich graphical information). Using our novel methodological approach, we examined whether skilled tennis players use proximal body information when anticipating shot directions. Fifteen skilled tennis players and fifteen novice players tried to anticipate shot directions by observing four CG forehand strokes (ALPOL: all body parts were represented with polygon; RAPLD: racket and arm were represented with PLD; BOPLD: body parts without racket and arm were represented with PLD; and ALPLD: all body parts were represented with PLD). Our intention in creating CG models with such combinations (i.e., RAPLD and BOPLD) was that because of the richer graphical information provided by polygons compared to PLD, the participant's anticipatory judgment would be influenced more by body parts expressed with polygons. The results showed that for skilled players, anticipatory judgment was more accurate when they observed RAPLD than when they observed BOPLD and ALPLD. In contrast, for novice players, there were no differences in the accuracy of anticipatory judgments with the four CG models. Only skilled players made more accurate anticipatory judgments when body regions were expressed with rich graphical information, and the racket and arm were expressed with poor graphical information. These suggest that skilled players used proximal information to effectively anticipate shot directions.

Perceptual Learning in the Absence of Task or Stimulus Specificity

PubMed Central

Webb, Ben S.; Roach, Neil W.; McGraw, Paul V.

2007-01-01

Performance on most sensory tasks improves with practice. When making particularly challenging sensory judgments, perceptual improvements in performance are tightly coupled to the trained task and stimulus configuration. The form of this specificity is believed to provide a strong indication of which neurons are solving the task or encoding the learned stimulus. Here we systematically decouple task- and stimulus-mediated components of trained improvements in perceptual performance and show that neither provides an adequate description of the learning process. Twenty-four human subjects trained on a unique combination of task (three-element alignment or bisection) and stimulus configuration (vertical or horizontal orientation). Before and after training, we measured subjects' performance on all four task-configuration combinations. What we demonstrate for the first time is that learning does actually transfer across both task and configuration provided there is a common spatial axis to the judgment. The critical factor underlying the transfer of learning effects is not the task or stimulus arrangements themselves, but rather the recruitment of commons sets of neurons most informative for making each perceptual judgment. PMID:18094748

A multi-factor Rasch scale for artistic judgment.

PubMed

Bezruczko, Nikolaus

2002-01-01

Measurement properties are reported for a combined scale of abstract and figurative artistic judgment aptitude items. Abstract items are synthetic, rule-based images from Visual Designs Test which implements a statistical algorithm to control design complexity and redundancy, and figurative items are canvas paintings in five styles, Fauvism, Post-Impressionism, Surrealism, Renaissance, and Baroque especially created for this research. The paintings integrate syntactic structure from VDT Abstract designs with thematic content for each style at four levels of complexity while controlling redundancy. Trained test administrators collected preference for synthetic abstract designs and authentic figurative art from 462 examinees in Johnson O'Connor Research Foundation testing offices in Boston, New York, Chicago, and Dallas. The Rasch model replicated measurement properties for VDT Abstract items and identified an item hierarchy that was statistically invariant between genders and generally stable across age for new, authentic figurative items. Further examination of the figurative item hierarchy revealed that complexity interacts with style and meaning. Sound measurement properties for a combined VDT Abstract and Figurative scale shows promise for a comprehensive artistic judgment construct.

Decision-Making under Risk of Loss in Children

PubMed Central

Steelandt, Sophie; Broihanne, Marie-Hélène; Romain, Amélie; Thierry, Bernard; Dufour, Valérie

2013-01-01

In human adults, judgment errors are known to often lead to irrational decision-making in risky contexts. While these errors can affect the accuracy of profit evaluation, they may have once enhanced survival in dangerous contexts following a “better be safe than sorry” rule of thumb. Such a rule can be critical for children, and it could develop early on. Here, we investigated the rationality of choices and the possible occurrence of judgment errors in children aged 3 to 9 years when exposed to a risky trade. Children were allocated with a piece of cookie that they could either keep or risk in exchange of the content of one cup among 6, visible in front of them. In the cups, cookies could be of larger, equal or smaller sizes than the initial allocation. Chances of losing or winning were manipulated by presenting different combinations of cookie sizes in the cups (for example 3 large, 2 equal and 1 small cookie). We investigated the rationality of children's response using the theoretical models of Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Children aged 3 to 4 years old were unable to discriminate the profitability of exchanging in the different combinations. From 5 years, children were better at maximizing their benefit in each combination, their decisions were negatively induced by the probability of losing, and they exhibited a framing effect, a judgment error found in adults. Confronting data to the EUT indicated that children aged over 5 were risk-seekers but also revealed inconsistencies in their choices. According to a complementary model, the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), they exhibited loss aversion, a pattern also found in adults. These findings confirm that adult-like judgment errors occur in children, which suggests that they possess a survival value. PMID:23349682

Decision-making under risk of loss in children.

PubMed

Steelandt, Sophie; Broihanne, Marie-Hélène; Romain, Amélie; Thierry, Bernard; Dufour, Valérie

2013-01-01

In human adults, judgment errors are known to often lead to irrational decision-making in risky contexts. While these errors can affect the accuracy of profit evaluation, they may have once enhanced survival in dangerous contexts following a "better be safe than sorry" rule of thumb. Such a rule can be critical for children, and it could develop early on. Here, we investigated the rationality of choices and the possible occurrence of judgment errors in children aged 3 to 9 years when exposed to a risky trade. Children were allocated with a piece of cookie that they could either keep or risk in exchange of the content of one cup among 6, visible in front of them. In the cups, cookies could be of larger, equal or smaller sizes than the initial allocation. Chances of losing or winning were manipulated by presenting different combinations of cookie sizes in the cups (for example 3 large, 2 equal and 1 small cookie). We investigated the rationality of children's response using the theoretical models of Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Children aged 3 to 4 years old were unable to discriminate the profitability of exchanging in the different combinations. From 5 years, children were better at maximizing their benefit in each combination, their decisions were negatively induced by the probability of losing, and they exhibited a framing effect, a judgment error found in adults. Confronting data to the EUT indicated that children aged over 5 were risk-seekers but also revealed inconsistencies in their choices. According to a complementary model, the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), they exhibited loss aversion, a pattern also found in adults. These findings confirm that adult-like judgment errors occur in children, which suggests that they possess a survival value.

Clearing Unexploded Ordnance: Bayesian Methodology for Assessing Success

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, K K.

2005-10-30

The Department of Defense has many Formerly Used Defense Sites (FUDS) that are slated for transfer for public use. Some sites have unexploded ordnance (UXO) that must be cleared prior to any land transfers. Sites are characterized using geophysical sensing devices and locations are identified where possible UXO may be located. In practice, based on the analysis of the geophysical surveys, a dig list of N suspect locations is created for a site that is possibly contaminated with UXO. The suspect locations on the dig list are often assigned into K bins ranging from ``most likely to contain UXO" tomore » ``least likely to be UXO" based on signal discrimination techniques and expert judgment. Usually all dig list locations are sampled to determine if UXO is present before the site is determined to be free of UXO. While this method is 100% certain to insure no UXO remains in the locations identified by the signal discrimination and expert judgment, it is very costly. This paper proposes a statistical Bayesian methodology that may result in digging less than 100% of the suspect locations to reach a pre-defined tolerable risk, where risk is defined in terms of a low probability that any UXO remains in the unsampled dig list locations. Two important features of a Bayesian approach are that it can account for uncertainties in model parameters and that it can handle data that becomes available in stages. The results from each stage of data can be used to direct the subsequent digs.« less

Domain expertise insulates against judgment bias by monetary favors through a modulation of ventromedial prefrontal cortex

PubMed Central

Kirk, Ulrich; Harvey, Ann; Montague, P. Read

2011-01-01

Recent work using an art-viewing paradigm shows that monetary sponsorship of the experiment by a company (a favor) increases the valuation of paintings placed next to the sponsoring corporate logo, an effect that correlates with modulation of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC). We used the same art-viewing paradigm to test a prevailing idea in the domain of conflict-of-interest: that expertise in a domain insulates against judgment bias even in the presence of a monetary favor. Using a cohort of art experts, we show that monetary favors do not bias the experts’ valuation of art, an effect that correlates with a lack of modulation of the VMPFC across sponsorship conditions. The lack of sponsorship effect in the VMPFC suggests the hypothesis that their brains remove the behavioral sponsorship effect by censoring sponsorship-dependent modulation of VMPFC activity. We tested the hypothesis that prefrontal regions play a regulatory role in mediating the sponsorship effect. We show that the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) is recruited in the expert group. Furthermore, we tested the hypothesis in nonexpert controls by contrasting brain responses in controls who did not show a sponsorship effect to controls who did. Changes in effective connectivity between the DLPFC and VMPFC were greater in nonexpert controls, with an absence of the sponsorship effect relative to those with a presence of the sponsorship effect. The role of the DLPFC in cognitive control and emotion regulation suggests that it removes the influence of a monetary favor by controlling responses in known valuation regions of the brain including the the VMPFC. PMID:21646526

The development of a valid discovery-based learning module to improve students' mathematical connection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuneni, Erna; Mardiyana, Pramudya, Ikrar

2017-08-01

Geometry is the most important branch in mathematics. The purpose of teaching this material is to develop students' level of thinking for a better understanding. Otherwise, geometry in particular, has contributed students' failure in mathematics examinations. This problem occurs due to special feature in geometry which has complexity of correlation among its concept. This relates to mathematical connection. It is still difficult for students to improve this ability. This is because teachers' lack in facilitating students towards it. Eventhough, facilitating students can be in the form of teaching material. A learning module can be a solution because it consists of series activities that should be taken by students to achieve a certain goal. A series activities in this case is adopted by the phases of discovery-based learning model. Through this module, students are facilitated to discover concept by deep instruction and guidance. It can build the mathematical habits of mind and also strengthen the mathematical connection. Method used in this research was ten stages of research and development proposed by Bord and Gall. The research purpose is to create a valid learning module to improve students' mathematical connection in teaching quadrilateral. The retrieved valid module based on media expert judgment is 2,43 for eligibility chart aspect, 2,60 for eligibility presentation aspect, and 3,00 for eligibility contents aspect. Then the retrieved valid module based on material expert judgment is 3,10 for eligibility content aspect, 2,87 for eligibility presentation aspect, and 2,80 for eligibility language and legibility aspect.

An examination of dependence power, father involvement, and judgments about violence in an at-risk community sample of mothers.

PubMed

Samp, Jennifer A; Abbott, Leslie

2011-12-01

Individuals sometimes remain in dysfunctional, and even violent, relationships due to a perceived dependence on a partner. We examined the influence of dependence power judgments (defined by a combined assessment of mother commitment, perceived father commitment, and perceived father alternatives) in a community sample of mothers potentially bound to a relationship with the father of her child. We also considered the influence of perceived father involvement in the child's life on judgments related to dependence power. Using a survey design with a sample of 100 mothers (age: 16-43, M = 29.16, SD = 7.17 years old) enrolled in a local Early Head Start/Head Start program, we observed that a mother's perceived father involvement was positively associated with judgments of her dependence power. Furthermore, we observed that her assessment of dependence power was negatively associated with her tolerance for both physical and psychological violence as well as the use of destructive child discipline tactics.

14 CFR 33.75 - Safety analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... judgment and previous experience combined with sound design and test philosophies. (4) The applicant must... STANDARDS: AIRCRAFT ENGINES Design and Construction; Turbine Aircraft Engines § 33.75 Safety analysis. (a... the effects of failures and likely combination of failures be verified by test. (c) The primary...

14 CFR 33.75 - Safety analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... judgment and previous experience combined with sound design and test philosophies. (4) The applicant must... STANDARDS: AIRCRAFT ENGINES Design and Construction; Turbine Aircraft Engines § 33.75 Safety analysis. (a... the effects of failures and likely combination of failures be verified by test. (c) The primary...

14 CFR 33.75 - Safety analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... judgment and previous experience combined with sound design and test philosophies. (4) The applicant must... STANDARDS: AIRCRAFT ENGINES Design and Construction; Turbine Aircraft Engines § 33.75 Safety analysis. (a... the effects of failures and likely combination of failures be verified by test. (c) The primary...

14 CFR 33.75 - Safety analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... judgment and previous experience combined with sound design and test philosophies. (4) The applicant must... STANDARDS: AIRCRAFT ENGINES Design and Construction; Turbine Aircraft Engines § 33.75 Safety analysis. (a... the effects of failures and likely combination of failures be verified by test. (c) The primary...

Property Attribution in Combined Concepts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spalding, Thomas L.; Gagné, Christina L.

2015-01-01

Recent research shows that the judged likelihood of properties of modified nouns ("baby ducks have webbed feet") is reduced relative to judgments for unmodified nouns ("ducks have webbed feet"). This modification effect has been taken as evidence both for and against the idea that combined concepts automatically inherit…

Combining heuristic and statistical techniques in landslide hazard assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cepeda, Jose; Schwendtner, Barbara; Quan, Byron; Nadim, Farrokh; Diaz, Manuel; Molina, Giovanni

2014-05-01

As a contribution to the Global Assessment Report 2013 - GAR2013, coordinated by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction - UNISDR, a drill-down exercise for landslide hazard assessment was carried out by entering the results of both heuristic and statistical techniques into a new but simple combination rule. The data available for this evaluation included landslide inventories, both historical and event-based. In addition to the application of a heuristic method used in the previous editions of GAR, the availability of inventories motivated the use of statistical methods. The heuristic technique is largely based on the Mora & Vahrson method, which estimates hazard as the product of susceptibility and triggering factors, where classes are weighted based on expert judgment and experience. Two statistical methods were also applied: the landslide index method, which estimates weights of the classes for the susceptibility and triggering factors based on the evidence provided by the density of landslides in each class of the factors; and the weights of evidence method, which extends the previous technique to include both positive and negative evidence of landslide occurrence in the estimation of weights for the classes. One key aspect during the hazard evaluation was the decision on the methodology to be chosen for the final assessment. Instead of opting for a single methodology, it was decided to combine the results of the three implemented techniques using a combination rule based on a normalization of the results of each method. The hazard evaluation was performed for both earthquake- and rainfall-induced landslides. The country chosen for the drill-down exercise was El Salvador. The results indicate that highest hazard levels are concentrated along the central volcanic chain and at the centre of the northern mountains.

An integrated assessment instrument: Developing and validating instrument for facilitating critical thinking abilities and science process skills on electrolyte and nonelectrolyte solution matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astuti, Sri Rejeki Dwi; Suyanta, LFX, Endang Widjajanti; Rohaeti, Eli

2017-05-01

The demanding of assessment in learning process was impact by policy changes. Nowadays, assessment is not only emphasizing knowledge, but also skills and attitudes. However, in reality there are many obstacles in measuring them. This paper aimed to describe how to develop integrated assessment instrument and to verify instruments' validity such as content validity and construct validity. This instrument development used test development model by McIntire. Development process data was acquired based on development test step. Initial product was observed by three peer reviewer and six expert judgments (two subject matter experts, two evaluation experts and two chemistry teachers) to acquire content validity. This research involved 376 first grade students of two Senior High Schools in Bantul Regency to acquire construct validity. Content validity was analyzed used Aiken's formula. The verifying of construct validity was analyzed by exploratory factor analysis using SPSS ver 16.0. The result show that all constructs in integrated assessment instrument are asserted valid according to content validity and construct validity. Therefore, the integrated assessment instrument is suitable for measuring critical thinking abilities and science process skills of senior high school students on electrolyte solution matter.

What is healthy food? Objective nutrient profile scores and subjective lay evaluations in comparison.

PubMed

Bucher, T; Müller, B; Siegrist, M

2015-12-01

To date, it is unclear how consumers evaluate the healthiness of individual foods and meals and how consumers' perceptions are related to expert opinions. This knowledge is essential for efficient communication of nutrition information with the goal of promoting healthy eating. This study used the fake food buffet method to investigate health perceptions of selected meals and of 54 individual foods and beverages. Lay consumers' subjective healthiness evaluations of meals and foods were compared to objective nutrient profile scores, which were previously shown to correlate highly with expert opinions. The results show that nutrition profile scores and lay evaluations were highly correlated, which indicates that lay people used similar criteria as experts to evaluate the healthiness of foods. However, lay consumers tended to neglect the amount of saturated fat, protein and sodium for their judgments. Also, it was found that while lay consumers were quite able to evaluate single food products, they had difficulties in evaluating entire meals. Future interventions should focus particularly on educating the consumer about the negative effects of diets high in salt and saturated fat and they should improve the consumer's abilities to evaluate entire meals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expert study to select indicators of the occurrence of emerging mycotoxin hazards.

PubMed

Kandhai, M C; Booij, C J H; Van der Fels-Klerx, H J

2011-01-01

This article describes a Delphi-based expert judgment study aimed at the selection of indicators to identify the occurrence of emerging mycotoxin hazards related to Fusarium spp. in wheat supply chains. A panel of 29 experts from 12 European countries followed a holistic approach to evaluate the most important indicators for different chain stages (growth, transport and storage, and processing) and their relative importance. After three e-mailing rounds, the experts reached consensus on the most important indicators for each of the three stages: wheat growth, transport and storage, and processing. For wheat growth, these indicators include: relative humidity/rainfall, crop rotation, temperature, tillage practice, water activity of the kernels, and crop variety/cultivar. For the transport and storage stage, they include water activity in the kernels, relative humidity, ventilation, temperature, storage capacity, and logistics. For wheat processing, indicators include quality data, fraction of the cereal used, water activity in the kernels, quality management and traceability systems, and carryover of contamination. The indicators selected in this study can be used in an identification system for the occurrence of emerging mycotoxin hazards in wheat supply chains. Such a system can be used by risk managers within governmental (related) organizations and/or the food and feed industry in order to react proactively to the occurrence of these emerging mycotoxins. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Mind-Reader Does Not Always Have Deontological Moral Judgments and Prosocial Behavior: A Developmental Perspective

PubMed Central

Hao, Jian; Liu, Yanchun

2016-01-01

The rationalistic theories of morality emphasize that reasoning plays an important role in moral judgments and prosocial behavior. Theory of mind as a reasoning ability in the mental domain has been considered a facilitator of moral development. The present study examined whether theory of mind was consistently positively associated with morality from middle childhood to late adulthood. Two hundred and four participants, including 48 elementary school children, 45 adolescents, 62 younger adults, and 49 older adults, completed theory of mind, moral judgment and prosocial behavior tasks. Theory of mind was measured with strange stories that tapped into an understanding of lies, white lies, double bluffs, irony, and persuasion. Moral judgments were measured with variants of the trolley dilemma. Prosocial behavior was measured through participants' performance in an interactive situation in which a helping request was made. The results indicated specific rather than similar developmental trajectories of theory of mind, moral judgments, and prosocial behavior. There was a quadratic trend in theory of mind, a combination of quadratic and cubic trends in deontological moral judgments and a linear decline in helping behavior. It is thus suggested that theory of mind may not be associated with morality in an unchanging way during development. Further results indicated that theory of mind and deontological moral judgments were negatively correlated for children, adolescents, and older adults but positively correlated for younger adults. Theory of mind and helping behavior were positively correlated for children but negatively correlated for adolescents. However, the relationships disappeared in adulthood. In sum, the present study reveals that theory of mind may be a nice tool for its facilitation of deontological moral judgments and prosocial behavior, but it may also be a nasty tool for its blocking of deontological moral judgments and prosocial behavior. Moreover, theory of mind may be a permanent tool for moral judgment development but a temporary tool for prosocial behavior development. Thus, the present study enriches the rationalistic theories of morality from a developmental perspective. Different relationships between theory of mind and morality from middle childhood to late adulthood are discussed. PMID:27602011

A Mind-Reader Does Not Always Have Deontological Moral Judgments and Prosocial Behavior: A Developmental Perspective.

PubMed

Hao, Jian; Liu, Yanchun

2016-01-01

The rationalistic theories of morality emphasize that reasoning plays an important role in moral judgments and prosocial behavior. Theory of mind as a reasoning ability in the mental domain has been considered a facilitator of moral development. The present study examined whether theory of mind was consistently positively associated with morality from middle childhood to late adulthood. Two hundred and four participants, including 48 elementary school children, 45 adolescents, 62 younger adults, and 49 older adults, completed theory of mind, moral judgment and prosocial behavior tasks. Theory of mind was measured with strange stories that tapped into an understanding of lies, white lies, double bluffs, irony, and persuasion. Moral judgments were measured with variants of the trolley dilemma. Prosocial behavior was measured through participants' performance in an interactive situation in which a helping request was made. The results indicated specific rather than similar developmental trajectories of theory of mind, moral judgments, and prosocial behavior. There was a quadratic trend in theory of mind, a combination of quadratic and cubic trends in deontological moral judgments and a linear decline in helping behavior. It is thus suggested that theory of mind may not be associated with morality in an unchanging way during development. Further results indicated that theory of mind and deontological moral judgments were negatively correlated for children, adolescents, and older adults but positively correlated for younger adults. Theory of mind and helping behavior were positively correlated for children but negatively correlated for adolescents. However, the relationships disappeared in adulthood. In sum, the present study reveals that theory of mind may be a nice tool for its facilitation of deontological moral judgments and prosocial behavior, but it may also be a nasty tool for its blocking of deontological moral judgments and prosocial behavior. Moreover, theory of mind may be a permanent tool for moral judgment development but a temporary tool for prosocial behavior development. Thus, the present study enriches the rationalistic theories of morality from a developmental perspective. Different relationships between theory of mind and morality from middle childhood to late adulthood are discussed.

Appropriate Use Criteria in Dermatopathology: Initial Recommendations from the American Society of Dermatopathology.

PubMed

Vidal, Claudia I; Armbrect, Eric A; Andea, Aleodor A; Bohlke, Angela K; Comfere, Nneka I; Hughes, Sarah R; Kim, Jinah; Kozel, Jessica A; Lee, Jason B; Linos, Konstantinos; Litzner, Brandon R; Missall, Tricia A; Novoa, Roberto A; Sundram, Uma; Swick, Brian L; Hurley, M Yadira; Alam, Murad; Argenyi, Zsolt; Duncan, Lyn M; Elston, Dirk M; Emanuel, Patrick O; Ferringer, Tammie; Fung, Maxwell A; Hosler, Gregory A; Lazar, Alexander J; Lowe, Lori; Plaza, Jose A; Prieto, Victor G; Robinson, June K; Schaffer, Andras; Subtil, Antonio; Wang, Wei-Lien

2018-04-21

Appropriate use criteria (AUC) provide physicians guidance in test selection, can affect health care delivery, reimbursement policy, and physician decision-making. The American Society of Dermatopathology (ASDP), with input from the American Academy of Dermatology (AAD) and the College of American Pathologists (CAP), sought to develop AUC in dermatopathology. The RAND/UCLA appropriateness methodology, which combines evidence-based medicine, clinical experience and expert judgment, was used to develop AUC in dermatopathology. With the number of ratings predetermined at 3, AUC were developed for 211 clinical scenarios (CS) involving 12 ancillary studies (AS). Consensus was reached for 188 (89%) CS, with 93 (44%) considered "usually appropriate", 52 (25%) "rarely appropriate", and 43 (20%) "uncertain appropriateness". The methodology requires a focus on appropriateness without comparison between tests and irrespective of cost. The ultimate decision of when to order specific test rests with the physician and is one where the expected benefit exceeds the negative consequences. This publication outlines the recommendation of appropriateness - AUC for 12 tests used in dermatopathology. Importantly, these recommendations may change considering new evidence. Results deemed "uncertain appropriateness" and where consensus was not reached may benefit from further research. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Predictive Analytics for City Agencies: Lessons from Children's Services.

PubMed

Shroff, Ravi

2017-09-01

Many municipal agencies maintain detailed and comprehensive electronic records of their interactions with citizens. These data, in combination with machine learning and statistical techniques, offer the promise of better decision making, and more efficient and equitable service delivery. However, a data scientist employed by an agency to implement these techniques faces numerous and varied choices that cumulatively can have significant real-world consequences. The data scientist, who may be the only person at an agency equipped to understand the technical complexity of a predictive algorithm, therefore, bears a good deal of responsibility in making judgments. In this perspective, I use a concrete example from my experience of working with New York City's Administration for Children's Services to illustrate the social and technical tradeoffs that can result from choices made in each step of data analysis. Three themes underlie these tradeoffs: the importance of frequent communication between the data scientist, agency leadership, and domain experts; the agency's resources and organizational constraints; and the necessity of an ethical framework to evaluate salient costs and benefits. These themes inform specific recommendations that I provide to guide agencies that employ data scientists and rely on their work in designing, testing, and implementing predictive algorithms.

Judgments of facial attractiveness as a combination of facial parts information over time: Social and aesthetic factors.

PubMed

Saegusa, Chihiro; Watanabe, Katsumi

2016-02-01

Facial attractiveness can be judged on the basis of visual information acquired in a very short duration, but the absolute level of attractiveness changes depending on the duration of the observation. However, how information from individual facial parts contributes to the judgment of whole-face attractiveness is unknown. In the current study, we examined how contributions of facial parts to the judgment of whole-face attractiveness would change over time. In separate sessions, participants evaluated the attractiveness of whole faces, as well as of the eyes, nose, and mouth after observing them for 20, 100, and 1,000 ms. Correlation and multiple regression analyses indicated that the eyes made a consistently high contribution to whole-face attractiveness, even with an observation duration of 20 ms, whereas the contribution of other facial parts increased as the observation duration grew longer. When the eyes were averted, the attractiveness ratings for the whole face were decreased marginally. In addition, the contribution advantage of the eyes at the 20-ms observation duration was diminished. We interpret these results to indicate that (a) eye gaze signals social attractiveness at the early stage (perhaps in combination with emotional expression), (b) other facial parts start contributing to the judgment of whole-face attractiveness by forming aesthetic attractiveness, and (c) there is a dynamic interplay between social and aesthetic attractiveness. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Overrated adults: 4-year-olds' false belief understanding is influenced by the believer's age.

PubMed

Seehagen, Sabine; Dreier, Larissa; Zmyj, Norbert

2018-03-01

Children perceive adults as more knowledgeable than peers. We tested whether this general preconception influences preschoolers' performance in a false-belief task. Children (4- and 5-year-olds; N = 146) watched videos showing a peer protagonist or an adult protagonist experiencing events that should lead the protagonist to hold a false belief. Then children were asked to infer the protagonist's perception of the situation. Age of the protagonist influenced 4-year-olds' judgments but not 5-year-olds' judgments. Specifically, 4-year-olds' performance was at chance when presented with a peer protagonist. Their performance dropped further when presented with an adult protagonist and was significantly below chance. Children aged around 5 years performed above chance level regardless of whether they were presented with an adult or peer protagonist. This suggests that in the younger age group, children's tendency to regard adults as experts in general knowledge undermined their ability to accurately judge the possibility that an adult could hold a false belief. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Anchoring in Numeric Judgments of Visual Stimuli

PubMed Central

Langeborg, Linda; Eriksson, Mårten

2016-01-01

This article investigates effects of anchoring in age estimation and estimation of quantities, two tasks which to different extents are based on visual stimuli. The results are compared to anchoring in answers to classic general knowledge questions that rely on semantic knowledge. Cognitive load was manipulated to explore possible differences between domains. Effects of source credibility, manipulated by differing instructions regarding the selection of anchor values (no information regarding anchor selection, information that the anchors are randomly generated or information that the anchors are answers from an expert) on anchoring were also investigated. Effects of anchoring were large for all types of judgments but were not affected by cognitive load or by source credibility in either one of the researched domains. A main effect of cognitive load on quantity estimations and main effects of source credibility in the two visually based domains indicate that the manipulations were efficient. Implications for theoretical explanations of anchoring are discussed. In particular, because anchoring did not interact with cognitive load, the results imply that the process behind anchoring in visual tasks is predominantly automatic and unconscious. PMID:26941684

Interrater Agreement on the Visual Analysis of Individual Tiers and Functional Relations in Multiple Baseline Designs.

PubMed

Wolfe, Katie; Seaman, Michael A; Drasgow, Erik

2016-11-01

Previous research on visual analysis has reported low levels of interrater agreement. However, many of these studies have methodological limitations (e.g., use of AB designs, undefined judgment task) that may have negatively influenced agreement. Our primary purpose was to evaluate whether agreement would be higher than previously reported if we addressed these weaknesses. Our secondary purposes were to investigate agreement at the tier level (i.e., the AB comparison) and at the functional relation level in multiple baseline designs and to examine the relationship between raters' decisions at each of these levels. We asked experts (N = 52) to make judgments about changes in the dependent variable in individual tiers and about the presence of an overall functional relation in 31 multiple baseline graphs. Our results indicate that interrater agreement was just at or just below minimally adequate levels for both types of decisions and that agreement at the individual tier level often resulted in agreement about the overall functional relation. We report additional findings and discuss implications for practice and future research. © The Author(s) 2016.

Planning Model of Physics Learning In Senior High School To Develop Problem Solving Creativity Based On National Standard Of Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putra, A.; Masril, M.; Yurnetti, Y.

2018-04-01

One of the causes of low achievement of student’s competence in physics learning in high school is the process which they have not been able to develop student’s creativity in problem solving. This is shown that the teacher’s learning plan is not accordance with the National Eduction Standard. This study aims to produce a reconstruction model of physics learning that fullfil the competency standards, content standards, and assessment standards in accordance with applicable curriculum standards. The development process follows: Needs analysis, product design, product development, implementation, and product evaluation. The research process involves 2 peers judgment, 4 experts judgment and two study groups of high school students in Padang. The data obtained, in the form of qualitative and quantitative data that collected through documentation, observation, questionnaires, and tests. The result of this research up to the product development stage that obtained the physics learning plan model that meets the validity of the content and the validity of the construction in terms of the fulfillment of Basic Competence, Content Standards, Process Standards and Assessment Standards.

Progress in national-scale landslide susceptibility mapping in Romania using a combined statistical-heuristical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bălteanu, Dan; Micu, Mihai; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Jurchescu, Marta; Sima, Mihaela; Kucsicsa, Gheorghe; Dumitrică, Cristina; Petrea, Dănuţ; Mărgărint, Ciprian; Bilaşco, Ştefan; Văcăreanu, Radu; Georgescu, Sever; Senzaconi, Francisc

2017-04-01

Landslide processes represent a very widespread geohazard in Romania, affecting mainly the hilly and plateau regions as well as the mountain sectors developed on flysch formations. Two main projects provided the framework for improving the existing national landslide susceptibility map (Bălteanu et al. 2010): the ELSUS (Pan-European and nation-wide landslide susceptibility assessment, EC-CERG) and the RO-RISK (Disaster Risk Evaluation at National Level, ESF-POCA) projects. The latter one, a flagship project aiming at strengthening risk prevention and management in Romania, focused on a national-level evaluation of the main risks in the country including landslides. The strategy for modeling landslide susceptibility was designed based on the experience gained from continental and national level assessments conducted in the frame of the International Programme on Landslides (IPL) project IPL-162, the European Landslides Expert Group - JRC and the ELSUS project. The newly proposed landslide susceptibility model used as input a reduced set of landslide conditioning factor maps available at scales of 1:100,000 - 1:200,000 and consisting of lithology, slope angle and land cover. The input data was further differentiated for specific natural environments, defined here as morpho-structural units in order to incorporate differences induced by elevation (vertical climatic zonation), morpho-structure as well as neotectonic features. In order to best discern the specific landslide conditioning elements, the analysis has been carried out for one single process category, namely slides. The existence of a landslide inventory covering the whole country's territory ( 30,000 records, Micu et al. 2014), although affected by incompleteness and lack of homogeneity, allowed for the application of a semi-quantitative, mixed statistical-heuristical approach having the advantage of combining the objectivity of statistics with expert-knowledge in calibrating class and factor weights. The maps obtained for the different units were subjected to evaluation and validation using both expert judgment and two additional landslide inventories with national coverage. Expert evaluations were provided for several parts of the country, where possible also using available regional zonations, and derived knowledge was subsequently used for map improvements. The external landslide datasets allowed for validation of the maps through prediction-rate curves (PRC). An improved national landslide susceptibility map of Romania (100 m resolution) resulted from merging the various unit maps and classifying them according to the PRC-thresholds. The final map reveals good performance for most areas. Finally, improvements compared to the previous version of the national map as well as model limitations and possible enhancement requirements are discussed. This study is part of the RO-RISK project (2016) coordinated by the Romanian General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations (IGSU) and supported by the European Social Fund through the Operational Programme for Administrative Capacity (POCA).

"Vámonos means go, but that's made up for the show": reality confusions and learning from educational TV.

PubMed

Mares, Marie-Louise; Sivakumar, Gayathri

2014-11-01

Educational television for young children often combines factual content with fantasy. In 2 experiments, we examined 3- to 5-year-olds' reality judgments and the implications for their learning. In the 1st study, 145 children watched 3 clips featuring (respectively) a Hispanic, a Chinese American, and an Anglo character. Responses indicated age differences in character-reality judgments (e.g., "X can hear me"), acceptance of fantasy (e.g., talking backpacks), rejection of factual content (i.e., Spanish and Chinese words are "just pretend") but not perceived learning. Perceived reality of Chinese and Spanish words used by the characters partially mediated age differences in word comprehension, controlling for viewer ethnicity. In the 2nd study, 114 children were randomly assigned to see clips featuring either Hispanic or Chinese traditions and words. Age differences in reality judgments were replicated and were partially mediated by children's use of evidence or arguments to justify reality judgments and (to a lesser extent) by their cognitive flexibility. Further, children's reality judgments partially mediated age differences in learning of the educational content. Results suggest that reality distinctions improve with age, contributing to children's learning. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Are judgments a form of data clustering? Reexamining contrast effects with the k-means algorithm.

PubMed

Boillaud, Eric; Molina, Guylaine

2015-04-01

A number of theories have been proposed to explain in precise mathematical terms how statistical parameters and sequential properties of stimulus distributions affect category ratings. Various contextual factors such as the mean, the midrange, and the median of the stimuli; the stimulus range; the percentile rank of each stimulus; and the order of appearance have been assumed to influence judgmental contrast. A data clustering reinterpretation of judgmental relativity is offered wherein the influence of the initial choice of centroids on judgmental contrast involves 2 combined frequency and consistency tendencies. Accounts of the k-means algorithm are provided, showing good agreement with effects observed on multiple distribution shapes and with a variety of interaction effects relating to the number of stimuli, the number of response categories, and the method of skewing. Experiment 1 demonstrates that centroid initialization accounts for contrast effects obtained with stretched distributions. Experiment 2 demonstrates that the iterative convergence inherent to the k-means algorithm accounts for the contrast reduction observed across repeated blocks of trials. The concept of within-cluster variance minimization is discussed, as is the applicability of a backward k-means calculation method for inferring, from empirical data, the values of the centroids that would serve as a representation of the judgmental context. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Testing Bayesian and heuristic predictions of mass judgments of colliding objects

PubMed Central

Sanborn, Adam N.

2014-01-01

Mass judgments of colliding objects have been used to explore people's understanding of the physical world because they are ecologically relevant, yet people display biases that are most easily explained by a small set of heuristics. Recent work has challenged the heuristic explanation, by producing the same biases from a model that copes with perceptual uncertainty by using Bayesian inference with a prior based on the correct combination rules from Newtonian mechanics (noisy Newton). Here I test the predictions of the leading heuristic model (Gilden and Proffitt, 1989) against the noisy Newton model using a novel manipulation of the standard mass judgment task: making one of the objects invisible post-collision. The noisy Newton model uses the remaining information to predict above-chance performance, while the leading heuristic model predicts chance performance when one or the other final velocity is occluded. An experiment using two different types of occlusion showed better-than-chance performance and response patterns that followed the predictions of the noisy Newton model. The results demonstrate that people can make sensible physical judgments even when information critical for the judgment is missing, and that a Bayesian model can serve as a guide in these situations. Possible algorithmic-level accounts of this task that more closely correspond to the noisy Newton model are explored. PMID:25206345

Effects of road traffic background noise on judgments of individual airplane noises. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powell, C. A.

1979-01-01

Two laboratory experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of road-traffic background noise on judgments of individual airplane flyover noises. In the first experiment, 27 subjects judged a set of 16 airplane flyover noises in the presence of traffic-noise sessions of 30-min duration consisting of the combinations of 3 traffic-noise types and 3 noise levels. In the second experiment, 24 subjects judged the same airplane flyover noises in the presence of traffic-noise sessions of 10-min duration consisting of the combinations of 2 traffic-noise types and 4 noise levels. In both experiments the airplane noises were judged less annoying in the presence of high traffic-noise levels than in the presence of low traffic-noise levels.

How Well Can Analytic Hierarchy Process be Used to Elicit Individual Preferences? Insights from a Survey in Patients Suffering from Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

PubMed

Danner, Marion; Vennedey, Vera; Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Fauser, Sascha; Gross, Christian; Stock, Stephanie

2016-10-01

In this study, we tested the feasibility of an interviewer-assisted analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in a special patient population with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). One aim was to generate preference weights regarding AMD treatment characteristics. A secondary aim was to explore the consistency of preference judgments and reasons for inconsistency. We generated quantitative importance weights for decision criteria using the matrix multiplication method. A qualitative study component in the form of asking patients to think aloud throughout their judgments was implemented to facilitate understanding of quantitative findings. Consistency ratios were calculated as a measure of logical judgment performance within AHP. If consistency ratios exceeded 0.2, we explored reasons for inconsistency. We interviewed 86 patients and generated preference weights for criteria. Patients rated the injection's effect on visual function the highest (0.44), followed by the frequency of monitoring visits (0.18), approval status (0.13), injection frequency (0.13), and side effects (0.12). Inconsistency in judgments was prevalent at the subcriteria level. Whereas much of the observed inconsistency was due to an excessive use of high/extreme value judgments, these judgments seemed to result from patients reasonably trying to highlight their strong preferences. Our study combines quantitative with qualitative data to explore patients' preference weights and decision processes using the AHP. It suggests that the type of inconsistency observed in judgments of AMD patients mostly results from rational decision making, not from error or lack of understanding. Further research should address which type and extent of inconsistency might be acceptable in different AHP settings.

Height perception influenced by texture gradient.

PubMed

Tozawa, Junko

2012-01-01

Three experiments were carried out to examine whether a texture gradient influences perception of relative object height. Previous research implicated texture cues in judgments of object width, but similar influences have not been demonstrated for relative height. In this study, I evaluate a hypothesis that the projective ratio of the number of texture elements covered by the objects combined with the ratio of the retinal object heights determines percepts of relative object height. Density of texture background was varied: four density conditions ranged from no-texture to very dense texture. In experiments 1 and 2, participants judged the height of comparison bar compared to the standard bar positioned on no-texture or textured backgrounds. Results showed relative height judgments differed with texture manipulations, consistent with predictions from a hypothesised combination of the number of texture elements with retinal height (experiment 1), or partially consistent with this hypothesis (experiment 2). In experiment 2, variations in the position of a comparison object showed that comparisons located far from the horizon were judged more poorly than in other positions. In experiment 3 I examined distance perception; relative distance judgments were found to be also affected by textured backgrounds. Results are discussed in terms of Gibson's relational theory and distance calibration theory.

Multisensory Self-Motion Compensation During Object Trajectory Judgments

PubMed Central

Dokka, Kalpana; MacNeilage, Paul R.; DeAngelis, Gregory C.; Angelaki, Dora E.

2015-01-01

Judging object trajectory during self-motion is a fundamental ability for mobile organisms interacting with their environment. This fundamental ability requires the nervous system to compensate for the visual consequences of self-motion in order to make accurate judgments, but the mechanisms of this compensation are poorly understood. We comprehensively examined both the accuracy and precision of observers' ability to judge object trajectory in the world when self-motion was defined by vestibular, visual, or combined visual–vestibular cues. Without decision feedback, subjects demonstrated no compensation for self-motion that was defined solely by vestibular cues, partial compensation (47%) for visually defined self-motion, and significantly greater compensation (58%) during combined visual–vestibular self-motion. With decision feedback, subjects learned to accurately judge object trajectory in the world, and this generalized to novel self-motion speeds. Across conditions, greater compensation for self-motion was associated with decreased precision of object trajectory judgments, indicating that self-motion compensation comes at the cost of reduced discriminability. Our findings suggest that the brain can flexibly represent object trajectory relative to either the observer or the world, but a world-centered representation comes at the cost of decreased precision due to the inclusion of noisy self-motion signals. PMID:24062317

Multiple paths in complex tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Galanter, Eugene; Wiegand, Thomas; Mark, Gloria

1987-01-01

The relationship between utility judgments of subtask paths and the utility of the task as a whole was examined. The convergent validation procedure is based on the assumption that measurements of the same quantity done with different methods should covary. The utility measures of the subtasks were obtained during the performance of an aircraft flight controller navigation task. Analyses helped decide among various models of subtask utility combination, whether the utility ratings of subtask paths predict the whole tasks utility rating, and indirectly, whether judgmental models need to include the equivalent of cognitive noise.

An expert judgment model applied to estimating the safety effect of a bicycle facility.

PubMed

Leden, L; Gårder, P; Pulkkinen, U

2000-07-01

This paper presents a risk index model that can be used for assessing the safety effect of countermeasures. The model estimates risk in a multiplicative way, which makes it possible to analyze the impact of different factors separately. Expert judgments are incorporated through a Bayesian error model. The variance of the risk estimate is determined by Monte-Carlo simulation. The model was applied to assess the safety effect of a new design of a bicycle crossing. The intent was to gain safety by raising the crossings to reduce vehicle speeds and by making the crossings more visible by painting them in a bright color. Before the implementations, bicyclists were riding on bicycle crossings of conventional Swedish type, i.e. similar to crosswalks but delineated by white squares rather than solid lines or zebra markings. Automobile speeds were reduced as anticipated. However, it seems as if the positive effect of this was more or less canceled out by increased bicycle speeds. The safety per bicyclist was still improved by approximately 20%. This improvement was primarily caused by an increase in bicycle flow, since the data show that more bicyclists at a given location seem to benefit their safety. The increase in bicycle flow was probably caused by the new layout of the crossings since bicyclists perceived them as safer and causing less delay. Some future development work is suggested. Pros and cons with the used methodology are discussed. The most crucial parameter to be added is probably a model describing the interaction between motorists and bicyclists, for example, how risk is influenced by the lateral position of the bicyclist in relation to the motorist. It is concluded that the interaction seems to be optimal when both groups share the roadway.

Comparison of automatic procedures in the selection of peaks over threshold in flood frequency analysis: A Canadian case study in the context of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durocher, M.; Mostofi Zadeh, S.; Burn, D. H.; Ashkar, F.

2017-12-01

Floods are one of the most costly hazards and frequency analysis of river discharges is an important part of the tools at our disposal to evaluate their inherent risks and to provide an adequate response. In comparison to the common examination of annual streamflow maximums, peaks over threshold (POT) is an interesting alternative that makes better use of the available information by including more than one flood event per year (on average). However, a major challenge is the selection of a satisfactory threshold above which peaks are assumed to respect certain conditions necessary for an adequate estimation of the risk. Additionally, studies have shown that POT is also a valuable approach to investigate the evolution of flood regimes in the context of climate change. Recently, automatic procedures for the selection of the threshold were suggested to guide that important choice, which otherwise rely on graphical tools and expert judgment. Furthermore, having an automatic procedure that is objective allows for quickly repeating the analysis on a large number of samples, which is useful in the context of large databases or for uncertainty analysis based on a resampling approach. This study investigates the impact of considering such procedures in a case study including many sites across Canada. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the bias and predictive power of the automatic procedures in similar conditions as well as investigating the power of derived nonstationarity tests. The results obtained are also evaluated in the light of expert judgments established in a previous study. Ultimately, this study provides a thorough examination of the considerations that need to be addressed when conducting POT analysis using automatic threshold selection.

Developing a situational judgment test blueprint for assessing the non-cognitive skills of applicants to the University of Utah School of Medicine, the United States

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Purpose: The situational judgment test (SJT) shows promise for assessing the non-cognitive skills of medical school applicants, but has only been used in Europe. Since the admissions processes and education levels of applicants to medical school are different in the United States and in Europe, it is necessary to obtain validity evidence of the SJT based on a sample of United States applicants. Methods: Ninety SJT items were developed and Kane’s validity framework was used to create a test blueprint. A total of 489 applicants selected for assessment/interview day at the University of Utah School of Medicine during the 2014-2015 admissions cycle completed one of five SJTs, which assessed professionalism, coping with pressure, communication, patient focus, and teamwork. Item difficulty, each item’s discrimination index, internal consistency, and the categorization of items by two experts were used to create the test blueprint. Results: The majority of item scores were within an acceptable range of difficulty, as measured by the difficulty index (0.50-0.85) and had fair to good discrimination. However, internal consistency was low for each domain, and 63% of items appeared to assess multiple domains. The concordance of categorization between the two educational experts ranged from 24% to 76% across the five domains. Conclusion: The results of this study will help medical school admissions departments determine how to begin constructing a SJT. Further testing with a more representative sample is needed to determine if the SJT is a useful assessment tool for measuring the non-cognitive skills of medical school applicants. PMID:26582629

Do Surgeons and Gastroenterologists Describe Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Differently? A Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Boehler, Margaret L; Roberts, Nicole; Sanfey, Hilary; Mellinger, John

2016-01-01

Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is a technically challenging procedure performed by both surgeons and gastroenterologists. There is controversy in the field regarding the training necessary to perform ERCP. Widely disparate requisite volumes of experience to achieve proficiency have been published by representatives of each specialty. The basis for these differences has not been fully explored, with particular reference to the cognitive mindset of the different specialties. Structured cognitive task analytic interviews were conducted with 7 expert gastroenterologists and 4 expert surgeons from 4 institutions, each of whom performs ERCP as a common procedure in their clinical practice. A qualitative analysis and grounded theory approach was used, focusing specifically on duct cannulation as a critical procedural element. Transcripts were analyzed using Atlas.ti software. The qualitative analysis of 11 transcripts identified 173 unique codes from a total of 653 quotes. In all, 5 themes were found to describe the codes: judgment, teaching, techniques, principles, and equipment. Significant differences were noted between gastroenterologists and surgeons across these themes. Gastroenterologists placed emphasis on issues of judgment including rationale, and emphasized explanation and clarification in teaching. Surgeons placed more emphasis on use of visual cues, and emphasized technique and equipment nuances. The data suggest that gastroenterologists deconstruct ERCP competence based on application of rules and rationale through reflection. Surgeons focus more on visual and tactile cues in task deconstruction, and may be more likely to measure proficiency based on technical response to such cues. Based on this study, it is proposed that both specialties might have complementary roles in training therapeutic endoscopists. Copyright © 2015 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evidence-based recommendations for the diagnosis and management of rheumatoid arthritis for non-rheumatologists: Integrating systematic literature research and expert opinion of the Thai Rheumatism Association.

PubMed

Katchamart, Wanruchada; Narongroeknawin, Pongthorn; Chevaisrakul, Parawee; Dechanuwong, Pornchai; Mahakkanukrauh, Ajanee; Kasitanon, Nuntana; Pakchotanon, Rattapol; Sumethkul, Kittiwan; Ueareewongsa, Parichat; Ukritchon, Sittichai; Bhurihirun, Thitirat; Duangkum, Kittikorn; Intapiboon, Porntip; Intongkam, Samanan; Jangsombatsiri, Wimol; Jatuworapruk, Kanon; Kositpesat, Naravadee; Leungroongroj, Pawinee; Lomarat, Wiyanoot; Petcharat, Chonachan; Sittivutworapant, Siriluck; Suebmee, Patcharawan; Tantayakom, Pongchirat; Tipsing, Worakan; Asavatanabodee, Paijit; Chiowchanwisawakit, Praveena; Foocharoen, Chingching; Koolvisoot, Ajchara; Louthrenoo, Worawit; Siripaitoon, Boonjing; Totemchokchyakarn, Kitti; Kitumnuaypong, Tasanee

2017-09-01

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic inflammatory joint disease leading to joint damage, functional disability, poor quality of life and shortened life expectancy. Early diagnosis and aggressive treatment are a principal strategy to improve outcomes. To provide best practices in the diagnosis and management of patients with RA, the Thai Rheumatism Association (TRA) developed scientifically sound and clinically relevant evidence-based recommendations for general practitioners, internists, orthopedists, and physiatrists. Thirty-seven rheumatologists from across Thailand formulated 18 clinically relevant questions: three for diagnosis, 10 for treatments, four for monitoring, and one for referral. A bibliographic team systematically reviewed the relevant literature on these topics up to December 2013. A set of recommendations was proposed based on the results of systematic reviews combined with expert opinions. Group consensus was achieved for all statements and recommendations using the nominal group technique. A set of recommendations was proposed. For diagnosis, either American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 1987 or ACR/European League Against Rheumatism 2010 classification criteria can be applied. For treatment, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, glucocorticoid, and disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs, including antimalarials, methotrexate and sulfasalazine are recommended. Physiotherapy should be suggested to all patients. Tight control strategy and monitoring for efficacy and side effects of treatments, as well as indications for referral to a rheumatologist are provided. These evidence-based recommendations provide practical guidance for diagnosis, fundamental management and referral of patients with RA for non-rheumatologists. However, it should be incorporated with clinical judgments and decisions about care for each individual patient. © 2016 Asia Pacific League of Associations for Rheumatology and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Comparison of two expert-based assessments of diesel exhaust exposure in a case-control study: programmable decision rules versus expert review of individual jobs.

PubMed

Pronk, Anjoeka; Stewart, Patricia A; Coble, Joseph B; Katki, Hormuzd A; Wheeler, David C; Colt, Joanne S; Baris, Dalsu; Schwenn, Molly; Karagas, Margaret R; Johnson, Alison; Waddell, Richard; Verrill, Castine; Cherala, Sai; Silverman, Debra T; Friesen, Melissa C

2012-10-01

Professional judgment is necessary to assess occupational exposure in population-based case-control studies; however, the assessments lack transparency and are time-consuming to perform. To improve transparency and efficiency, we systematically applied decision rules to questionnaire responses to assess diesel exhaust exposure in the population-based case-control New England Bladder Cancer Study. 2631 participants reported 14 983 jobs; 2749 jobs were administered questionnaires ('modules') with diesel-relevant questions. We applied decision rules to assign exposure metrics based either on the occupational history (OH) responses (OH estimates) or on the module responses (module estimates); we then combined the separate OH and module estimates (OH/module estimates). Each job was also reviewed individually to assign exposure (one-by-one review estimates). We evaluated the agreement between the OH, OH/module and one-by-one review estimates. The proportion of exposed jobs was 20-25% for all jobs, depending on approach, and 54-60% for jobs with diesel-relevant modules. The OH/module and one-by-one review estimates had moderately high agreement for all jobs (κ(w)=0.68-0.81) and for jobs with diesel-relevant modules (κ(w)=0.62-0.78) for the probability, intensity and frequency metrics. For exposed subjects, the Spearman correlation statistic was 0.72 between the cumulative OH/module and one-by-one review estimates. The agreement seen here may represent an upper level of agreement because the algorithm and one-by-one review estimates were not fully independent. This study shows that applying decision-based rules can reproduce a one-by-one review, increase transparency and efficiency, and provide a mechanism to replicate exposure decisions in other studies.

Effects of age on the soccer-specific cognitive-motor performance of elite young soccer players: Comparison between objective measurements and coaches’ evaluation

PubMed Central

Chauvin, Alan; Chassot, Steve; Chenevière, Xavier; Taube, Wolfgang

2017-01-01

The cognitive-motor performance (CMP), defined here as the capacity to rapidly use sensory information and transfer it into efficient motor output, represents a major contributor to performance in almost all sports, including soccer. Here, we used a high-technology system (COGNIFOOT) which combines a visual environment simulator fully synchronized with a motion capture system. This system allowed us to measure objective real-time CMP parameters (passing accuracy/speed and response times) in a large turf-artificial grass playfield. Forty-six (46) young elite soccer players (including 2 female players) aged between 11 and 16 years who belonged to the same youth soccer academy were tested. Each player had to pass the ball as fast and as accurately as possible towards visual targets projected onto a large screen located 5.32 meters in front of him (a short pass situation). We observed a linear age-related increase in the CMP: the passing accuracy, speed and reactiveness of players improved by 4 centimeters, 2.3 km/h and 30 milliseconds per year of age, respectively. These data were converted into 5 point-scales and compared to the judgement of expert coaches, who also used a 5 point-scale to evaluate the same CMP parameters but based on their experience with the players during games and training. The objectively-measured age-related CMP changes were also observed in expert coaches’ judgments although these were more variable across coaches and age categories. This demonstrates that high-technology systems like COGNIFOOT can be used in complement to traditional approaches of talent identification and to objectively monitor the progress of soccer players throughout a cognitive-motor training cycle. PMID:28953958

Effects of age on the soccer-specific cognitive-motor performance of elite young soccer players: Comparison between objective measurements and coaches' evaluation.

PubMed

Hicheur, Halim; Chauvin, Alan; Chassot, Steve; Chenevière, Xavier; Taube, Wolfgang

2017-01-01

The cognitive-motor performance (CMP), defined here as the capacity to rapidly use sensory information and transfer it into efficient motor output, represents a major contributor to performance in almost all sports, including soccer. Here, we used a high-technology system (COGNIFOOT) which combines a visual environment simulator fully synchronized with a motion capture system. This system allowed us to measure objective real-time CMP parameters (passing accuracy/speed and response times) in a large turf-artificial grass playfield. Forty-six (46) young elite soccer players (including 2 female players) aged between 11 and 16 years who belonged to the same youth soccer academy were tested. Each player had to pass the ball as fast and as accurately as possible towards visual targets projected onto a large screen located 5.32 meters in front of him (a short pass situation). We observed a linear age-related increase in the CMP: the passing accuracy, speed and reactiveness of players improved by 4 centimeters, 2.3 km/h and 30 milliseconds per year of age, respectively. These data were converted into 5 point-scales and compared to the judgement of expert coaches, who also used a 5 point-scale to evaluate the same CMP parameters but based on their experience with the players during games and training. The objectively-measured age-related CMP changes were also observed in expert coaches' judgments although these were more variable across coaches and age categories. This demonstrates that high-technology systems like COGNIFOOT can be used in complement to traditional approaches of talent identification and to objectively monitor the progress of soccer players throughout a cognitive-motor training cycle.

Research on AHP decision algorithms based on BP algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Ning; Guan, Jianhe

2017-10-01

Decision making is the thinking activity that people choose or judge, and scientific decision-making has always been a hot issue in the field of research. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a simple and practical multi-criteria and multi-objective decision-making method that combines quantitative and qualitative and can show and calculate the subjective judgment in digital form. In the process of decision analysis using AHP method, the rationality of the two-dimensional judgment matrix has a great influence on the decision result. However, in dealing with the real problem, the judgment matrix produced by the two-dimensional comparison is often inconsistent, that is, it does not meet the consistency requirements. BP neural network algorithm is an adaptive nonlinear dynamic system. It has powerful collective computing ability and learning ability. It can perfect the data by constantly modifying the weights and thresholds of the network to achieve the goal of minimizing the mean square error. In this paper, the BP algorithm is used to deal with the consistency of the two-dimensional judgment matrix of the AHP.

Emotional and Utilitarian Appraisals of Moral Dilemmas Are Encoded in Separate Areas and Integrated in Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex

PubMed Central

Montaser-Kouhsari, Leila; Woodward, James; Rangel, Antonio

2015-01-01

Moral judgment often requires making difficult tradeoffs (e.g., is it appropriate to torture to save the lives of innocents at risk?). Previous research suggests that both emotional appraisals and more deliberative utilitarian appraisals influence such judgments and that these appraisals often conflict. However, it is unclear how these different types of appraisals are represented in the brain, or how they are integrated into an overall moral judgment. We addressed these questions using an fMRI paradigm in which human subjects provide separate emotional and utilitarian appraisals for different potential actions, and then make difficult moral judgments constructed from combinations of these actions. We found that anterior cingulate, insula, and superior temporal gyrus correlated with emotional appraisals, whereas temporoparietal junction and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex correlated with utilitarian appraisals. Overall moral value judgments were represented in an anterior portion of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Critically, the pattern of responses and functional interactions between these three sets of regions are consistent with a model in which emotional and utilitarian appraisals are computed independently and in parallel, and passed to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex where they are integrated into an overall moral value judgment. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Popular accounts of moral judgment often describe it as a battle for control between two systems, one intuitive and emotional, the other rational and utilitarian, engaged in winner-take-all inhibitory competition. Using a novel fMRI paradigm, we identified distinct neural signatures of emotional and utilitarian appraisals and used them to test different models of how they compete for the control of moral behavior. Importantly, we find little support for competitive inhibition accounts. Instead, moral judgments resembled the architecture of simple economic choices: distinct regions represented emotional and utilitarian appraisals independently and passed this information to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex for integration into an overall moral value signal. PMID:26354924

Emotional and Utilitarian Appraisals of Moral Dilemmas Are Encoded in Separate Areas and Integrated in Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex.

PubMed

Hutcherson, Cendri A; Montaser-Kouhsari, Leila; Woodward, James; Rangel, Antonio

2015-09-09

Moral judgment often requires making difficult tradeoffs (e.g., is it appropriate to torture to save the lives of innocents at risk?). Previous research suggests that both emotional appraisals and more deliberative utilitarian appraisals influence such judgments and that these appraisals often conflict. However, it is unclear how these different types of appraisals are represented in the brain, or how they are integrated into an overall moral judgment. We addressed these questions using an fMRI paradigm in which human subjects provide separate emotional and utilitarian appraisals for different potential actions, and then make difficult moral judgments constructed from combinations of these actions. We found that anterior cingulate, insula, and superior temporal gyrus correlated with emotional appraisals, whereas temporoparietal junction and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex correlated with utilitarian appraisals. Overall moral value judgments were represented in an anterior portion of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Critically, the pattern of responses and functional interactions between these three sets of regions are consistent with a model in which emotional and utilitarian appraisals are computed independently and in parallel, and passed to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex where they are integrated into an overall moral value judgment. Significance statement: Popular accounts of moral judgment often describe it as a battle for control between two systems, one intuitive and emotional, the other rational and utilitarian, engaged in winner-take-all inhibitory competition. Using a novel fMRI paradigm, we identified distinct neural signatures of emotional and utilitarian appraisals and used them to test different models of how they compete for the control of moral behavior. Importantly, we find little support for competitive inhibition accounts. Instead, moral judgments resembled the architecture of simple economic choices: distinct regions represented emotional and utilitarian appraisals independently and passed this information to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex for integration into an overall moral value signal. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/3512593-14$15.00/0.

Development of a body motion interactive system with a weight voting mechanism and computer vision technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Chern-Sheng; Chen, Chia-Tse; Shei, Hung-Jung; Lay, Yun-Long; Chiu, Chuang-Chien

2012-09-01

This study develops a body motion interactive system with computer vision technology. This application combines interactive games, art performing, and exercise training system. Multiple image processing and computer vision technologies are used in this study. The system can calculate the characteristics of an object color, and then perform color segmentation. When there is a wrong action judgment, the system will avoid the error with a weight voting mechanism, which can set the condition score and weight value for the action judgment, and choose the best action judgment from the weight voting mechanism. Finally, this study estimated the reliability of the system in order to make improvements. The results showed that, this method has good effect on accuracy and stability during operations of the human-machine interface of the sports training system.

Spatial modelling of landscape aesthetic potential in urban-rural fringes.

PubMed

Sahraoui, Yohan; Clauzel, Céline; Foltête, Jean-Christophe

2016-10-01

The aesthetic potential of landscape has to be modelled to provide tools for land-use planning. This involves identifying landscape attributes and revealing individuals' landscape preferences. Landscape aesthetic judgments of individuals (n = 1420) were studied by means of a photo-based survey. A set of landscape visibility metrics was created to measure landscape composition and configuration in each photograph using spatial data. These metrics were used as explanatory variables in multiple linear regressions to explain aesthetic judgments. We demonstrate that landscape aesthetic judgments may be synthesized in three consensus groups. The statistical results obtained show that landscape visibility metrics have good explanatory power. Ultimately, we propose a spatial modelling of landscape aesthetic potential based on these results combined with systematic computation of visibility metrics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Politics or Technocracy - What Next for Global Health? Comment on "Navigating Between Stealth Advocacy and Unconscious Dogmatism: The Challenge of Researching the Norms, Politics and Power of Global Health".

PubMed

Kickbusch, Ilona

2015-12-12

Politics play a central part in determining health and development outcomes as Gorik Ooms highlights in his recent commentary. As health becomes more global and more politicized the need grows to better understand the inherently political processes at all levels of governance, such as ideological positions, ideas, value judgments, and power. I agree that global health research should strengthen its contribution to generating such knowledge by drawing more on political science, such research is gaining ground. Even more important is - as Ooms indicates - that global health scholars better understand their own role in the political process. It is time to acknowledge that expert-based technocratic approaches are no less political. We will need to reflect and analyse the role of experts in global health governance to a greater extent and in that context explore the links between politics, expertise and democracy. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

Study on Failure of Third-Party Damage for Urban Gas Pipeline Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

PubMed Central

Li, Jun; Zhang, Hong; Han, Yinshan; Wang, Baodong

2016-01-01

Focusing on the diversity, complexity and uncertainty of the third-party damage accident, the failure probability of third-party damage to urban gas pipeline was evaluated on the theory of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics. The fault tree of third-party damage containing 56 basic events was built by hazard identification of third-party damage. The fuzzy evaluation of basic event probabilities were conducted by the expert judgment method and using membership function of fuzzy set. The determination of the weight of each expert and the modification of the evaluation opinions were accomplished using the improved analytic hierarchy process, and the failure possibility of the third-party to urban gas pipeline was calculated. Taking gas pipelines of a certain large provincial capital city as an example, the risk assessment structure of the method was proved to conform to the actual situation, which provides the basis for the safety risk prevention. PMID:27875545

Developing a Methodology for Eliciting Subjective Probability Estimates During Expert Evaluations of Safety Interventions: Application for Bayesian Belief Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiegmann, Douglas A.a

2005-01-01

The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has defined several products that will potentially modify airline and/or ATC operations, enhance aircraft systems, and improve the identification of potential hazardous situations within the National Airspace System (NAS). Consequently, there is a need to develop methods for evaluating the potential safety benefit of each of these intervention products so that resources can be effectively invested to produce the judgments to develop Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN's) that model the potential impact that specific interventions may have. Specifically, the present report summarizes methodologies for improving the elicitation of probability estimates during expert evaluations of AvSP products for use in BBN's. The work involved joint efforts between Professor James Luxhoj from Rutgers University and researchers at the University of Illinois. The Rutgers' project to develop BBN's received funding by NASA entitled "Probabilistic Decision Support for Evaluating Technology Insertion and Assessing Aviation Safety System Risk." The proposed project was funded separately but supported the existing Rutgers' program.

Best Practices: How to Evaluate Psychological Science for Use by Organizations

PubMed Central

Fiske, Susan T.; Borgida, Eugene

2014-01-01

We discuss how organizations can evaluate psychological science for its potential usefulness to their own purposes. Common sense is often the default but inadequate alternative, and bench-marking supplies only collective hunches instead of validated principles. External validity is an empirical process of identifying moderator variables, not a simple yes-no judgment about whether lab results replicate in the field. Hence, convincing criteria must specify what constitutes high-quality empirical evidence for organizational use. First, we illustrate some theories and science that have potential use. Then we describe generally accepted criteria for scientific quality and consensus, starting with peer review for quality, and scientific agreement in forms ranging from surveys of experts to meta-analyses to National Research Council consensus reports. Linkages of basic science to organizations entail communicating expert scientific consensus, motivating managerial interest, and translating broad principles to specific contexts. We close with parting advice to both sides of the researcher-practitioner divide. PMID:24478533

Expert judgment on markers to deter inadvertent human intrusion into the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Trauth, K.M.; Hora, S.C.; Guzowski, R.V.

1993-11-01

The expert panel identified basic principles to guide current and future marker development efforts: (1) the site must be marked, (2) message(s) must be truthful and informative, (3) multiple components within a marker system, (4) multiple means of communication (e.g., language, pictographs, scientific diagrams), (5) multiple levels of complexity within individual messages on individual marker system elements, (6) use of materials with little recycle value, and (7) international effort to maintain knowledge of the locations and contents of nuclear waste repositories. The efficacy of the markers in deterring inadvertent human intrusion was estimated to decrease with time, with the probabilitymore » function varying with the mode of intrusion (who is intruding and for what purpose) and the level of technological development of the society. The development of a permanent, passive marker system capable of surviving and remaining interpretable for 10,000 years will require further study prior to implementation.« less

NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

1988-01-01

An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

A Hearing-Based, Frequency Domain Sound Quality Model for Combined Aerodynamic and Power Transmission Response with Application to Rotorcraft Interior Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sondkar, Pravin B.

The severity of combined aerodynamics and power transmission response in high-speed, high power density systems such as a rotorcraft is still a major cause of annoyance in spite of recent advancement in passive, semi-active and active control. With further increase in the capacity and power of this class of machinery systems, the acoustic noise levels are expected to increase even more. To achieve further improvements in sound quality, a more refined understanding of the factors and attributes controlling human perception is needed. In the case of rotorcraft systems, the perceived quality of the interior sound field is a major determining factor of passenger comfort. Traditionally, this sound quality factor is determined by measuring the response of a chosen set of juries who are asked to compare their qualitative reactions to two or more sounds based on their subjective impressions. This type of testing is very time-consuming, costly, often inconsistent, and not useful for practical design purposes. Furthermore, there is no known universal model for sound quality. The primary aim of this research is to achieve significant improvements in quantifying the sound quality of combined aerodynamic and power transmission response in high-speed, high power density machinery systems such as a rotorcraft by applying relevant objective measures related to the spectral characteristics of the sound field. Two models have been proposed in this dissertation research. First, a classical multivariate regression analysis model based on currently known sound quality metrics as well some new metrics derived in this study is presented. Even though the analysis resulted in the best possible multivariate model as a measure of the acoustic noise quality, it lacks incorporation of human judgment mechanism. The regression model can change depending on specific application, nature of the sounds and types of juries used in the study. Also, it predicts only the averaged preference scores and does not explain why two jury members differ in their judgment. To address the above shortcoming of applying regression analysis, a new human judgment model is proposed to further improve the ability to predict the degree of subjective annoyance. The human judgment model involves extraction of subjective attributes and their values using a proposed artificial jury processor. In this approach, a set of ear transfer functions are employed to compute the characteristics of sound pressure waves as perceived subjectively by human. The resulting basilar membrane displacement data from this proposed model is then applied to analyze the attribute values. Using this proposed human judgment model, the human judgment mechanism, which is highly sophisticated, will be examined. Since the human judgment model is essentially based on jury attributes that are not expected to change significantly with application or nature of the sound field, it gives a more common basis to evaluate sound quality. This model also attempts to explain the inter-juror differences in opinion, which is critical in understanding the variability in human response.

Bayesian Integration of Spatial Information

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheng, Ken; Shettleworth, Sara J.; Huttenlocher, Janellen; Rieser, John J.

2007-01-01

Spatial judgments and actions are often based on multiple cues. The authors review a multitude of phenomena on the integration of spatial cues in diverse species to consider how nearly optimally animals combine the cues. Under the banner of Bayesian perception, cues are sometimes combined and weighted in a near optimal fashion. In other instances…

Ethical Challenges of In-The-Field Training: A Surgical Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bernstein, Mark; Knifed, Eva

2007-01-01

The teaching of professions in which technical and manual acts combined with excellent judgment are used to enhance the safety of people, poses challenges to educators. Book learning combined with mock or simulated situations goes a long way, but ultimately "in-the-field" instruction and learning is necessary to qualify trainees for many…

Comparison of Two Sepsis Recognition Methods in a Pediatric Emergency Department

PubMed Central

Balamuth, Fran; Alpern, Elizabeth R.; Grundmeier, Robert W.; Chilutti, Marianne; Weiss, Scott L.; Fitzgerald, Julie C.; Hayes, Katie; Bilker, Warren; Lautenbach, Ebbing

2015-01-01

Objectives To compare the effectiveness of physician judgment and an electronic algorithmic alert to identify pediatric patients with severe sepsis/septic shock in a pediatric emergency department (ED). Methods This was an observational cohort study of patients older than 56 days with fever or hypothermia. All patients were evaluated for potential sepsis in real time by the ED clinical team. An electronic algorithmic alert was retrospectively applied to identify patients with potential sepsis independent of physician judgment. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients correctly identified with severe sepsis/septic shock defined by consensus criteria. Test characteristics were determined and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were compared. Results Of 19,524 eligible patient visits, 88 patients developed consensus-confirmed severe sepsis or septic shock. Physician judgment identified 159, and the algorithmic alert identified 3,301 patients with potential sepsis. Physician judgment had sensitivity of 72.7% (95% CI = 72.1% to 73.4%) and specificity 99.5% (95% CI = 99.4% to 99.6%); the algorithmic alert had sensitivity 92.1% (95% CI = 91.7% to 92.4%), and specificity 83.4% (95% CI = 82.9% to 83.9%) for severe sepsis/septic shock. There was no significant difference in the area under the ROC curve for physician judgment (0.86, 95% CI = 0.81 to 0.91) or the algorithm (0.88, 95% CI = 0.85 to 0.91; p = 0.54). A combination method using either positive physician judgment or an algorithmic alert improved sensitivity to 96.6% and specificity to 83.3%. A sequential approach, in which positive identification by the algorithmic alert was then confirmed by physician judgment, achieved 68.2% sensitivity and 99.6% specificity. Positive and negative predictive values for physician judgment vs. algorithmic alert were 40.3% vs. 2.5% and 99.88 % vs. 99.96%, respectively. Conclusions The electronic algorithmic alert was more sensitive but less specific than physician judgment for recognition of pediatric severe sepsis and septic shock. These findings can help to guide institutions in selecting pediatric sepsis recognition methods based on institutional needs and priorities. PMID:26474032

Comparison of Two Sepsis Recognition Methods in a Pediatric Emergency Department.

PubMed

Balamuth, Fran; Alpern, Elizabeth R; Grundmeier, Robert W; Chilutti, Marianne; Weiss, Scott L; Fitzgerald, Julie C; Hayes, Katie; Bilker, Warren; Lautenbach, Ebbing

2015-11-01

The objective was to compare the effectiveness of physician judgment and an electronic algorithmic alert to identify pediatric patients with severe sepsis/septic shock in a pediatric emergency department (ED). This was an observational cohort study of patients older than 56 days with fever or hypothermia. All patients were evaluated for potential sepsis in real time by the ED clinical team. An electronic algorithmic alert was retrospectively applied to identify patients with potential sepsis independent of physician judgment. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients correctly identified with severe sepsis/septic shock defined by consensus criteria. Test characteristics were determined and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were compared. Of 19,524 eligible patient visits, 88 patients developed consensus-confirmed severe sepsis or septic shock. Physician judgment identified 159 and the algorithmic alert identified 3,301 patients with potential sepsis. Physician judgment had sensitivity of 72.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 72.1% to 73.4%) and specificity of 99.5% (95% CI = 99.4% to 99.6%); the algorithmic alert had sensitivity of 92.1% (95% CI = 91.7% to 92.4%) and specificity of 83.4% (95% CI = 82.9% to 83.9%) for severe sepsis/septic shock. There was no significant difference in the area under the ROC curve for physician judgment (0.86, 95% CI = 0.81 to 0.91) or the algorithm (0.88, 95% CI = 0.85 to 0.91; p = 0.54). A combination method using either positive physician judgment or an algorithmic alert improved sensitivity to 96.6% and specificity to 83.3%. A sequential approach, in which positive identification by the algorithmic alert was then confirmed by physician judgment, achieved 68.2% sensitivity and 99.6% specificity. Positive and negative predictive values for physician judgment versus algorithmic alert were 40.3% versus 2.5% and 99.88% versus 99.96%, respectively. The electronic algorithmic alert was more sensitive but less specific than physician judgment for recognition of pediatric severe sepsis and septic shock. These findings can help to guide institutions in selecting pediatric sepsis recognition methods based on institutional needs and priorities. © 2015 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Decision support model for assessing aquifer pollution hazard and prioritizing groundwater resources management in the wet Pampa plain, Argentina.

PubMed

Lima, M Lourdes; Romanelli, Asunción; Massone, Héctor E

2013-06-01

This paper gives an account of the implementation of a decision support system for assessing aquifer pollution hazard and prioritizing subwatersheds for groundwater resources management in the southeastern Pampa plain of Argentina. The use of this system is demonstrated with an example from Dulce Stream Basin (1,000 km(2) encompassing 27 subwatersheds), which has high level of agricultural activities and extensive available data regarding aquifer geology. In the logic model, aquifer pollution hazard is assessed as a function of two primary topics: groundwater and soil conditions. This logic model shows the state of each evaluated landscape with respect to aquifer pollution hazard based mainly on the parameters of the DRASTIC and GOD models. The decision model allows prioritizing subwatersheds for groundwater resources management according to three main criteria including farming activities, agrochemical application, and irrigation use. Stakeholder participation, through interviews, in combination with expert judgment was used to select and weight each criterion. The resulting subwatershed priority map, by combining the logic and decision models, allowed identifying five subwatersheds in the upper and middle basin as the main aquifer protection areas. The results reasonably fit the natural conditions of the basin, identifying those subwatersheds with shallow water depth, loam-loam silt texture soil media and pasture land cover in the middle basin, and others with intensive agricultural activity, coinciding with the natural recharge area to the aquifer system. Major difficulties and some recommendations of applying this methodology in real-world situations are discussed.

Global assessment of surfing conditions: seasonal, interannual and long-term variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espejo, A.; Losada, I.; Mendez, F.

2012-12-01

International surfing destinations owe a great debt to specific combinations of wind-wave, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. As surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, a multivariable standardized index on the basis of expert judgment is proposed to analyze surf resource in a worldwide domain. Data needed is obtained by combining several datasets (reanalyses): 60-year satellite-calibrated spectral wave hindcast (GOW, WaveWatchIII), wind fields from NCEP/NCAR, global sea surface temperature from ERSST.v3b, and global tides from TPXO7.1. A summary of the global surf resource is presented, which highlights the high degree of variability in surfable events. According to general atmospheric circulation, results show that west facing low to middle latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in Southern Hemisphere. Month to month analysis reveals strong seasonal changes in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing those in North Atlantic or North Pacific. Interannual variability is investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional climate patterns showing a great influence at both, global and regional scales. Analysis of long term trends shows an increase in the probability of surfable events over the west facing coasts on the planet (i.e. + 30 hours/year in California). The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers and surf related stakeholders, coastal planning, education, and basic research.; Figure 1. Global distribution of medium quality (a) and high quality surf conditions probability (b).

The role of proximal body information on anticipatory judgment in tennis using graphical information richness

PubMed Central

Ida, Hirofumi; Ogata, Takahiro; Ishii, Motonobu; Higuchi, Takahiro

2017-01-01

Objective Recent studies have reported that skilled tennis players are likely to use proximal body information for anticipating the direction of their opponent’s forehand shot. However, in these studies, the visual stimuli did not include visual information about the ball. Skilled players may have used proximal information owing to the lack of distal information. To address this issue, we developed a novel methodological approach using computer graphics (CG) images in which the entire body was presented by a combination of point-light display (i.e., poor graphical information, PLD) and polygons (i.e., rich graphical information). Using our novel methodological approach, we examined whether skilled tennis players use proximal body information when anticipating shot directions. Methods and results Fifteen skilled tennis players and fifteen novice players tried to anticipate shot directions by observing four CG forehand strokes (ALPOL: all body parts were represented with polygon; RAPLD: racket and arm were represented with PLD; BOPLD: body parts without racket and arm were represented with PLD; and ALPLD: all body parts were represented with PLD). Our intention in creating CG models with such combinations (i.e., RAPLD and BOPLD) was that because of the richer graphical information provided by polygons compared to PLD, the participant’s anticipatory judgment would be influenced more by body parts expressed with polygons. The results showed that for skilled players, anticipatory judgment was more accurate when they observed RAPLD than when they observed BOPLD and ALPLD. In contrast, for novice players, there were no differences in the accuracy of anticipatory judgments with the four CG models. Conclusions Only skilled players made more accurate anticipatory judgments when body regions were expressed with rich graphical information, and the racket and arm were expressed with poor graphical information. These suggest that skilled players used proximal information to effectively anticipate shot directions. PMID:28704485

The expert consensus guideline series. Optimizing pharmacologic treatment of psychotic disorders. Introduction: methods, commentary, and summary.

PubMed

Kane, John M; Leucht, Stefan; Carpenter, Daniel; Docherty, John P

2003-01-01

A growing number of atypical antipsychotics are available for clinicians to choose from in the treatment of psychotic disorders. However, a number of important questions concerning medication selection, dosing and dose equivalence, and the management of inadequate response, compliance problems, and relapse have not been adequately addressed by clinical trials. To aid clinical decision-making, a consensus survey of expert opinion on the pharmacologic treatment of psychotic disorders was undertaken to address questions not definitively answered in the research literature. Based on a literature review, a written survey was developed with 60 questions and 994 options. Approximately half of the options were scored using a modified version of the RAND 9-point scale for rating the appropriateness of medical decisions. For the other options, the experts were asked to write in answers (e.g., average doses) or check a box to indicate their preferred answer. The survey was sent to 50 national experts on the pharmacologic treatment of psychotic disorders, 47 (94%) of whom completed it. In analyzing the responses to items rated on the 9-point scale, consensus on each option was defined as a non random distribution of scores by chi-square "goodness-of-fit"test. We assigned a categorical rank (first line/preferred choice,second line/alternate choice, third line/usually inappropriate) to each option based on the 95% confidence interval around the mean rating. Guideline tables indicating preferred treatment strategies were then developed for key clinical situations. The expert panel reached consensus on 88% of the options rated on the 9-point scale. The experts overwhelmingly endorsed the atypical antipsychotics for the treatment of psychotic disorders. Risperidone was the top choice for first-episode and multi-episode patients, with the other newer atypicals rated first line or high second line depending on the clinical situation. Clozapine and a long-acting injectable atypical (when available)were other high second line options for multi-episode patients. The expert's dosing recommendations agreed closely with the package inserts for the drugs, and their estimates of dose equivalence among the antipsychotics followed a linear pattern. The experts considered 3-6 weeks an adequate antipsychotic trial, but would wait a little longer (4-10 weeks) before making a major change in treatment regimen if there is a partial response. The experts recommended trying to improve response by increasing the dose of atypical and depot antipsychotics before switching to a different agent; there was less agreement about increasing the dose of conventional antipsychotics before switching, probably because of concern about side effects at higher doses. If it is decided to switch because of inadequate response, risperidone was the expert's first choice to switch to, no matter what drug was initially tried. Although there was some disparity in the expert's recommendations concerning how many agents to try before switching to clozapine, the expert's responses suggest that switching to clozapine should be Clozapine was also the antipsychotic of choice for patients with suicidal behavior. When switching oral antipsychotics,the experts considered cross-titration the preferred strategy. When switching to an injectable antipsychotic, the experts stressed the importance of continuing the oral antipsychotic until therapeutic levels of the injectable agent are achieved. The experts considered psychosocial interventions the first choice strategy for partially compliant patients, with pharmacologic interventions the first choice for patients with clear evidence of noncompliance. However, because it can be difficult to distinguish partially compliant from noncompliant patients, the editors recommended combining psychosocial and pharmacologic interventions to improve compliance whenever possible. When patients relapse because of compliance problems or if there is any doubt about compliance, the experts recommended the use of a long-acting injectable antipsychotic and would select an injectable atypical when this option becomes available. The experts would also consider using an injectable atypical antipsychotic (when available) in many clinical situations that do not involve compliance problems. The experts stressed the importance of monitoring for health problems-especially obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular problems,HIV risk behaviors, medical complications of substance abuse, heavy smoking and its effects, hypertension, and amenorrhea-in patients being treated with antipsychotics. Although many patients are prescribed adjunctive treatments,multiple antipsychotics, and combinations of different classes of drugs (e.g., antipsychotics plus mood stabilizers or antidepressants) in an effort to enhance response, the experts gave little support to any of these strategies, with the exception of antidepressants for patients with dysphoria/depression, antidepressants or ECT for patients with suicidal behavior, and mood stabilizers for patients with aggression/violence. When asked about indicators of remission and recovery, the experts considered acute improvement in psychotic symptoms the most important indicator of remission, whereas they considered more sustained improvement in multiple outcome domains (e.g., occupational/educational functioning, peer relationships,independent living) important in assessing recovery. The experts reached a high level of consensus on many of the key treatment questions in the survey. Within the limits of expert opinion and with the expectation that future research data will take precedence, these guidelines provide direction for addressing common clinical dilemmas that arise in the pharmacologic treatment of psychotic disorders. They can be used to inform clinicians and educate patients regarding the relative merits of a variety of interventions. Clinicians should keep in mind that no guidelines can address the complexities involved in the care of each individual patient and that sound clinical judgment based on clinical experience should be used in applying these recommendations.

A model to inform management actions as a response to chytridiomycosis-associated decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, Sarah J.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Mosher, Brittany A.; Funk, W. Chris; Gerber, Brian D.; Muths, Erin L.

2017-01-01

Decision-analytic models provide forecasts of how systems of interest will respond to management. These models can be parameterized using empirical data, but sometimes require information elicited from experts. When evaluating the effects of disease in species translocation programs, expert judgment is likely to play a role because complete empirical information will rarely be available. We illustrate development of a decision-analytic model built to inform decision-making regarding translocations and other management actions for the boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas), a species with declines linked to chytridiomycosis caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Using the model, we explored the management implications of major uncertainties in this system, including whether there is a genetic basis for resistance to pathogenic infection by Bd, how translocation can best be implemented, and the effectiveness of efforts to reduce the spread of Bd. Our modeling exercise suggested that while selection for resistance to pathogenic infectionDecision-analytic models provide forecasts of how systems of interest will respond to management. These models can be parameterized using empirical data, but sometimes require information elicited from experts. When evaluating the effects of disease in species translocation programs, expert judgment is likely to play a role because complete empirical information will rarely be available. We illustrate development of a decision-analytic model built to inform decision-making regarding translocations and other management actions for the boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas), a species with declines linked to chytridiomycosis caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Using the model, we explored the management implications of major uncertainties in this system, including whether there is a genetic basis for resistance to pathogenic infection by Bd, how translocation can best be implemented, and the effectiveness of efforts to reduce the spread of Bd. Our modeling exercise suggested that while selection for resistance to pathogenic infection by Bd could increase numbers of sites occupied by toads, and translocations could increase the rate of toad recovery, efforts to reduce the spread of Bd may have little effect. We emphasize the need to continue developing and parameterizing models necessary to assess management actions for combating chytridiomycosis-associated declines. by Bd could increase numbers of sites occupied by toads, and translocations could increase the rate of toad recovery, efforts to reduce the spread of Bd may have little effect. We emphasize the need to continue developing and parameterizing models necessary to assess management actions for combating chytridiomycosis-associated declines.

Knowing the operative game plan: a novel tool for the assessment of surgical procedural knowledge.

PubMed

Balayla, Jacques; Bergman, Simon; Ghitulescu, Gabriela; Feldman, Liane S; Fraser, Shannon A

2012-08-01

What is the source of inadequate performance in the operating room? Is it a lack of technical skills, poor judgment or a lack of procedural knowledge? We created a surgical procedural knowledge (SPK) assessment tool and evaluated its use. We interviewed medical students, residents and training program staff on SPK assessment tools developed for 3 different common general surgery procedures: inguinal hernia repair with mesh in men, laparoscopic cholecystectomy and right hemicolectomy. The tools were developed as a step-wise assessment of specific surgical procedures based on techniques described in a current surgical text. We compared novice (medical student to postgraduate year [PGY]-2) and expert group (PGY-3 to program staff) scores using the Mann-Whitney U test. We calculated the total SPK score and defined a cut-off score using receiver operating characteristic analysis. In all, 5 participants in 7 different training groups (n = 35) underwent an interview. Median scores for each procedure and overall SPK scores increased with experience. The median SPK for novices was 54.9 (95% confidence interval [CI] 21.6-58.8) compared with 98.05 (95% CP 94.1-100.0) for experts (p = 0.012). The SPK cut-off score of 93.1 discriminates between novice and expert surgeons. Surgical procedural knowledge can reliably be assessed using our SPK assessment tool. It can discriminate between novice and expert surgeons for common general surgical procedures. Future studies are planned to evaluate its use for more complex procedures.

Time Perception and Depressive Realism: Judgment Type, Psychophysical Functions and Bias

PubMed Central

Kornbrot, Diana E.; Msetfi, Rachel M.; Grimwood, Melvyn J.

2013-01-01

The effect of mild depression on time estimation and production was investigated. Participants made both magnitude estimation and magnitude production judgments for five time intervals (specified in seconds) from 3 sec to 65 sec. The parameters of the best fitting psychophysical function (power law exponent, intercept, and threshold) were determined individually for each participant in every condition. There were no significant effects of mood (high BDI, low BDI) or judgment (estimation, production) on the mean exponent, n = .98, 95% confidence interval (.96–1.04) or on the threshold. However, the intercept showed a ‘depressive realism’ effect, where high BDI participants had a smaller deviation from accuracy and a smaller difference between estimation and judgment than low BDI participants. Accuracy bias was assessed using three measures of accuracy: difference, defined as psychological time minus physical time, ratio, defined as psychological time divided by physical time, and a new logarithmic accuracy measure defined as ln (ratio). The ln (ratio) measure was shown to have approximately normal residuals when subjected to a mixed ANOVA with mood as a between groups explanatory factor and judgment and time category as repeated measures explanatory factors. The residuals of the other two accuracy measures flagrantly violated normality. The mixed ANOVAs of accuracy also showed a strong depressive realism effect, just like the intercepts of the psychophysical functions. There was also a strong negative correlation between estimation and production judgments. Taken together these findings support a clock model of time estimation, combined with additional cognitive mechanisms to account for the depressive realism effect. The findings also suggest strong methodological recommendations. PMID:23990960

Interactive data based on Apriori - AHP - C4.5 results assessment method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Quan; Zhang, Li

2017-05-01

AHP method for weight calculation method, will introduce the subjective concept of "experts, supposed steps", for the objective result has certain uncertainty, causes the classroom interaction data attribute weights proportion difference is not big, the whole class achievement trend of convergence, introduce the concept of Apriori-AHP. C4.5 is used to calculate the weight of attribute column, and then using the Apriori-AHP algorithm calculate attribute weights, attribute importance weights on judgment performance indicators table overall consideration, with the weight of index table of gifted student achievement, make the class performance trends to fluctuate, have tended to be "standard" real results for teacher reference.

Developing Teaching Materials Using Comic Media to Enhance Students’ Mathematical Communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yulian, V. N.

2018-04-01

Teaching materials are a set of materials that are arranged systematically written or not, to create an environment or atmosphere that allows students to learn. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of how the development of teaching materials using comic media that enhance mathematical communication, as well as feasible and effective teaching materials developed. Research method used in this research is Research and Development. In the sense of research contains about how to develop teaching materials through several stages such as validation by experts, as well as revisions. Sources of data used in this study were students and teachers SMK Bandung Barat. The results showed that the teaching materials developed feasible and effective use for students of class X SMK Bandung Barat. Teaching materials received a proper assessment of the experts after going through several stages of revision, in addition to the effective teaching materials used by students seen from the liveliness and the value of classical completeness that reaches more 85% of students. Based on the result of the research, it can be concluded that the developed teaching material gets the proper judgment from the expert, and effectively used in the learning by the students of X-1 Pharmacy class with the classical completeness reach 86% and the student activity is 91,4%.

Design e-learning with flipped learning model to improve layout understanding the concepts basic of the loop control structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handayani, D. P.; Sutarno, H.; Wihardi, Y.

2018-05-01

This study aimed in design and build e-learning with classroom flipped model to improve the concept of understanding of SMK students on the basic programming subject. Research and development obtained research data from survey questionnaire given to students of SMK class X RPL in SMK Negeri 2 Bandung and interviews to RPL productive teacher. Data also obtained from questionnaire of expert validation and students' assessment from e-learning with flipped classroom models. Data also obtained from multiple-choice test to measure improvements in conceptual understanding. The results of this research are: 1) Developed e- learning with flipped classroom model considered good and worthy of use by the average value of the percentage of 86,3% by media experts, and 85,5% by subjects matter experts, then students gave judgment is very good on e-learning either flipped classroom model with a percentage of 79,15% votes. 2) e-learning with classroom flipped models show an increase in the average value of pre-test before using e-learning 26.67 compared to the average value post-test after using e- learning at 63.37 and strengthened by the calculation of the index gains seen Increased understanding of students 'concepts by 50% with moderate criteria indicating that students' understanding is improving.

Why moral philosophers are not and should not be moral experts.

PubMed

Archard, David

2011-03-01

Professional philosophers are members of bioethical committees and regulatory bodies in areas of interest to bioethicists. This suggests they possess moral expertise even if they do not exercise it directly and without constraint. Moral expertise is defined, and four arguments given in support of scepticism about their possession of such expertise are considered and rejected: the existence of extreme disagreement between moral philosophers about moral matters; the lack of a means clearly to identify moral experts; that expertise cannot be claimed in that which lacks objectivity; and that ordinary people do not follow the advice of moral experts. I offer a better reason for scepticism grounded in the relation between moral philosophy and common-sense morality: namely that modern moral philosophy views even a developed moral theory as ultimately anchored in common-sense morality, that set of basic moral precepts which ordinary individuals have command of and use to regulate their own lives. Even if moral philosophers do nevertheless have a limited moral expertise, in that they alone can fully develop a set of moral judgments, I sketch reasons - grounded in the values of autonomy and of democracy - why moral philosophers should not wish non-philosophers to defer to their putative expertise. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Neuropsychologist Experts and Civil Capacity Evaluations: Representative Cases.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Paul M

2016-09-01

Clinical neuropsychologists accept more forensic referrals now and spend more time in forensic consulting than ever before. Recent surveys show weekly hours devoted to forensic consulting increased 97% in the past decade. During the same time period, the number of board certified neuropsychologists more than doubled. Under recently published Specialty Guidelines for Forensic Psychology, clinical neuropsychologists practice forensic psychology when applying scientific, technical, or specialized knowledge of neuropsychology to the law to assist in addressing legal, contractual, or administrative matters. Among those increasingly varied forensic referrals, clinical neuropsychologists are conducting more civil competency and capacity evaluations. Representative cases from three jurisdictions demonstrate how neuropsychologists provide expertize in matters involving testamentary capacity, contractual capacity, business judgments, and job capacity. Case presentations illustrate some of the strengths and weaknesses of neuropsychological evaluation of civil capacities. The article concludes with a "battle of experts" case involving five neuropsychologists with opposing opinions recently heard in a Federal Appellate court. Implications for neuropschology training and forensic competencies are considered. In offering quality services to the legal profession, neuropsychologists support the truth-seeking function of the judiciary, promote justice, protect the profession, and serve public policy. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

2015 SCAI/ACC/HFSA/STS Clinical Expert Consensus Statement on the Use of Percutaneous Mechanical Circulatory Support Devices in Cardiovascular Care (Endorsed by the American Heart Association, the Cardiological Society of India, and Sociedad Latino Americana de Cardiología Intervencionista; Affirmation of Value by the Canadian Association of Interventional Cardiology-Association Canadienne de Cardiologie d'intervention).

PubMed

Rihal, Charanjit S; Naidu, Srihari S; Givertz, Michael M; Szeto, Wilson Y; Burke, James A; Kapur, Navin K; Kern, Morton; Garratt, Kirk N; Goldstein, James A; Dimas, Vivian; Tu, Thomas

2015-06-01

This article provides a brief summary of the relevant recommendations and references related to percutaneous mechanical circulatory support. The goal was to provide the clinician with concise, evidence-based contemporary recommendations, and the supporting documentation to encourage their application. The full text includes disclosure of all relevant relationships with industry for each writing committee member. A fundamental aspect of all expert consensus statements is that these carefully developed, evidence-based documents can neither encompass all clinical circumstances, nor replace the judgment of individual physicians in management of each patient. The science of medicine is rooted in evidence, and the art of medicine is based on the application of this evidence to the individual patient. This expert consensus statement has adhered to these principles for optimal management of patients requiring percutaneous mechanical circulatory support. © 2015 by The Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions, The American College of Cardiology Foundation, the Heart Failure Society of America, and The Society for Thoracic Surgery.

Transient and sustained neural responses to death-related linguistic cues

PubMed Central

Shi, Zhenhao

2013-01-01

Recent research showed that perception of death-related vs death-unrelated linguistic cues produced increased frontoparietal activity but decreased insular activity. This study investigated (i) whether the increased frontoparietal and decreased insular activities are, respectively, associated with transient trial-specific processes of death-related linguistic cues and sustained death-related thought during death-relevance judgments on linguistic cues and (ii) whether the neural activity underlying death-related thought can predict individuals’ dispositional death anxiety. Participants were presented with death-related/unrelated words, life-related/unrelated words, and negative-valence/neutral words in separate sessions. Participants were scanned using functional magnetic resonance imaging while performing death-relevance, life-relevance, and valence judgments on the words, respectively. The contrast of death-related vs death-unrelated words during death-relevance judgments revealed transient increased activity in the left inferior parietal lobule, the right frontal eye field, and the right superior parietal lobule. The contrast of death-relevance judgments vs life-relevance/valence judgments showed decreased activity in the bilateral insula. The sustained insular activity was correlated with dispositional death anxiety, but only in those with weak transient frontoparietal responses to death-related words. Our results dissociate the transient and sustained neural responses to death-related linguistic cues and suggest that the combination of the transient and sustained neural activities can predict dispositional death anxiety. PMID:22422804

Stable aesthetic standards delusion: changing 'artistic quality' by elaboration.

PubMed

Carbon, Claus-Christian; Hesslinger, Vera M

2014-01-01

The present study challenges the notion that judgments of artistic quality are based on stable aesthetic standards. We propose that such standards are a delusion and that judgments of artistic quality are the combined result of exposure, elaboration, and discourse. We ran two experiments using elaboration tasks based on the repeated evaluation technique in which different versions of the Mona Lisa had to be elaborated deeply. During the initial task either the version known from the Louvre or an alternative version owned by the Prado was elaborated; during the second task both versions were elaborated in a comparative fashion. After both tasks multiple blends of the two versions had to be evaluated concerning several aesthetic key variables. Judgments of artistic quality of the blends were significantly different depending on the initially elaborated version of the Mona Lisa, indicating experience-based aesthetic processing, which contradicts the notion of stable aesthetic standards.

Risk of surgery for subacromial impingement syndrome in relation to neck-shoulder complaints and occupational biomechanical exposures: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Svendsen, Susanne Wulff; Dalbøge, Annett; Andersen, Johan Hviid; Thomsen, Jane Frølund; Frost, Poul

2013-11-01

The aim of this longitudinal study was to evaluate the risk of surgery for subacromial impingement syndrome (SIS) in relation to neck-shoulder complaints and occupational biomechanical shoulder exposures. The study was based on the Musculoskeletal Research Database at the Danish Ramazzini Centre. We linked baseline questionnaire information from 1993-2004 on neck-shoulder complaints, job titles, psychosocial work factors, body mass index, and smoking with register information on first-time surgery for SIS from 1996-2008. Biomechanical exposure measures were obtained from a job exposure matrix based on expert judgment. We applied multivariable Cox regression. During 280 125 person-years of follow-up among 37 402 persons, 557 first-time operations for SIS occurred. Crude surgery rates increased from 1.1 to 2.5 per 1000 person-years with increasing shoulder load. Using no neck-shoulder complaints and low shoulder load at baseline as a reference, no neck-shoulder complaints and high shoulder load showed an adjusted hazard ratio (HR(adj)) of 2.55 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.59-4.09], while neck-shoulder complaints in combination with high shoulder load showed an HR(adj) of 4.52 (95% CI 2.87-7.13). Subanalyses based on 18 856 persons showed an HR(adj) of 5.40 (95% CI 2.88-10.11) for complaints located specifically in the shoulder in combination with high shoulder load. Based on these findings, persons with neck-shoulder and especially shoulder complaints in combination with high shoulder load seem an obvious target group for interventions aimed at reducing exposures to prevent surgery for SIS.

The use of cognitive task analysis to improve instructional descriptions of procedures.

PubMed

Clark, Richard E; Pugh, Carla M; Yates, Kenneth A; Inaba, Kenji; Green, Donald J; Sullivan, Maura E

2012-03-01

Surgical training relies heavily on the ability of expert surgeons to provide complete and accurate descriptions of a complex procedure. However, research from a variety of domains suggests that experts often omit critical information about the judgments, analysis, and decisions they make when solving a difficult problem or performing a complex task. In this study, we compared three methods for capturing surgeons' descriptions of how to perform the procedure for inserting a femoral artery shunt (unaided free-recall, unaided free-recall with simulation, and cognitive task analysis methods) to determine which method produced more accurate and complete results. Cognitive task analysis was approximately 70% more complete and accurate than free-recall and or free-recall during a simulation of the procedure. Ten expert trauma surgeons at a major urban trauma center were interviewed separately and asked to describe how to perform an emergency shunt procedure. Four surgeons provided an unaided free-recall description of the shunt procedure, five surgeons provided an unaided free-recall description of the procedure using visual aids and surgical instruments (simulation), and one (chosen randomly) was interviewed using cognitive task analysis (CTA) methods. An 11th vascular surgeon approved the final CTA protocol. The CTA interview with only one expert surgeon resulted in significantly greater accuracy and completeness of the descriptions compared with the unaided free-recall interviews with multiple expert surgeons. Surgeons in the unaided group omitted nearly 70% of necessary decision steps. In the free-recall group, heavy use of simulation improved surgeons' completeness when describing the steps of the procedure. CTA significantly increases the completeness and accuracy of surgeons' instructional descriptions of surgical procedures. In addition, simulation during unaided free-recall interviews may improve the completeness of interview data. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Entangled judgments: expert preferences for adapting biodiversity conservation to climate change.

PubMed

Hagerman, Shannon M; Satterfield, Terre

2013-11-15

A major challenge facing conservation experts is how to adapt biodiversity planning and practice to the impacts of climate change. To date, most commonly advocated adaptation actions mirror conventional approaches (e.g. protected areas) despite decades of concern regarding their efficacy and widespread discussion of less conventional, interventionist actions. This survey of 160 experts (scientists and practitioners with specialized knowledge of the implications of climate change for biodiversity conservation) seeks to explain this deep incongruity. Specifically, we quantify current preferences for a diverse set of adaptation actions, and examine the choice logics that underpin them. We find near unanimous agreement in principle with the need for extensive active management and restoration interventions given climate change. However, when interventionist actions are provided as options alongside conventional actions, experts overwhelming prefer the latter. Four hypotheses, developed by linking the conservation adaptation literature with that of preference formation and risk and decision making, explore enduring preferences for conventional actions. They are (1) judged most ecologically effective, least risky and best understood; (2) linked with pro-ecological worldviews, marked by positive affective feelings, and an aversion to the hubris of managing nature; (3) a function of trust in biodiversity governance; and/or (4) driven by demographic factors such as gender. Overall, we find that experts prefer conventional over unconventional actions because they are viewed as relatively more effective and less risky from an ecological point of view, and because they are linked with positive affect ratings, and worldviews that are strongly pro-ecological. We discuss the roles of value-based and affective cues in shaping policy outcomes for adaptation specifically, and sustainable resource management more broadly. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

LTDNA Evidence on Trial

PubMed Central

Roberts, Paul

2016-01-01

Adopting the interpretative/hermeneutical method typical of much legal scholarship, this article considers two sets of issues pertaining to LTDNA profiles as evidence in criminal proceedings. The section titled Expert Evidence as Forensic Epistemic Warrant addresses some rather large questions about the epistemic status and probative value of expert testimony in general. It sketches a theoretical model of expert evidence, highlighting five essential criteria: (1) expert competence; (2) disciplinary domain; (3) methodological validity; (4) materiality; and (5) legal admissibility. This generic model of expert authority, highlighting law's fundamentally normative character, applies to all modern forms of criminal adjudication, across Europe and farther afield. The section titled LTDNA Evidence in UK Criminal Trials then examines English and Northern Irish courts' attempts to get to grips with LTDNA evidence in recent cases. Better appreciating the ways in which UK courts have addressed the challenges of LTDNA evidence may offer some insights into parallel developments in other legal systems. Appellate court rulings follow a predictable judicial logic, which might usefully be studied and reflected upon by any forensic scientist or statistician seeking to operate effectively in criminal proceedings. Whilst each legal jurisdiction has its own unique blend of jurisprudence, institutions, cultures and historical traditions, there is considerable scope for comparative analysis and cross-jurisdictional borrowing and instruction. In the spirit of promoting more nuanced and sophisticated international interdisciplinary dialogue, this article examines UK judicial approaches to LTDNA evidence and begins to elucidate their underlying institutional logic. Legal argument and broader policy debates are not confined to considerations of scientific validity, contamination risks and evidential integrity, or associated judgments of legal admissibility or exclusion. They also crucially concern the manner in which LTDNA profiling results are presented and explained to factfinders in criminal trials. PMID:27826316

LTDNA Evidence on Trial.

PubMed

Roberts, Paul

2016-01-01

Adopting the interpretative/hermeneutical method typical of much legal scholarship, this article considers two sets of issues pertaining to LTDNA profiles as evidence in criminal proceedings. The section titled Expert Evidence as Forensic Epistemic Warrant addresses some rather large questions about the epistemic status and probative value of expert testimony in general. It sketches a theoretical model of expert evidence, highlighting five essential criteria: (1) expert competence; (2) disciplinary domain; (3) methodological validity; (4) materiality; and (5) legal admissibility. This generic model of expert authority, highlighting law's fundamentally normative character, applies to all modern forms of criminal adjudication, across Europe and farther afield. The section titled LTDNA Evidence in UK Criminal Trials then examines English and Northern Irish courts' attempts to get to grips with LTDNA evidence in recent cases. Better appreciating the ways in which UK courts have addressed the challenges of LTDNA evidence may offer some insights into parallel developments in other legal systems. Appellate court rulings follow a predictable judicial logic, which might usefully be studied and reflected upon by any forensic scientist or statistician seeking to operate effectively in criminal proceedings. Whilst each legal jurisdiction has its own unique blend of jurisprudence, institutions, cultures and historical traditions, there is considerable scope for comparative analysis and cross-jurisdictional borrowing and instruction. In the spirit of promoting more nuanced and sophisticated international interdisciplinary dialogue, this article examines UK judicial approaches to LTDNA evidence and begins to elucidate their underlying institutional logic. Legal argument and broader policy debates are not confined to considerations of scientific validity, contamination risks and evidential integrity, or associated judgments of legal admissibility or exclusion. They also crucially concern the manner in which LTDNA profiling results are presented and explained to factfinders in criminal trials.

The Inverse Relation Between Risks and Benefits: The Role of Affect and Expertise.

PubMed

Sokolowska, Joanna; Sleboda, Patrycja

2015-07-01

Although risk and benefits of risky activities are positively correlated in the real world, empirical results indicate that people perceive them as negatively correlated. The common explanation is that confounding benefits and losses stems from affect. In this article, we address the issue that has not been clearly established in studies on the affect heuristic: to what extent boundary conditions, such as judgments' generality and expertise, influence the presence of the inverse relation in judgments of hazards. These conditions were examined in four studies in which respondents evaluated general or specific benefits and risks of "affect-rich" and "affect-poor" hazards (ranging from investments to applications of stem cell research). In line with previous research, affect is defined as good or bad feelings integral to a stimulus. In contrast to previous research, affect is considered as related both to personal feelings and to social controversies associated with a hazard. Expertise is related to personal knowledge (laypersons vs. experts) as well as to objective knowledge (targets well vs. poorly known to science). The direct comparison of the input from personal and objective ignorance into the inverse relation has not been investigated previously. It was found that affect invoked by a hazard guides general but not specific judgments of its benefits and risks. Technical expertise helps to avoid simplified evaluations of consequences as long as they are well known to science. For new, poorly understood hazards (e.g., stem cell research), expertise does not protect from the perception of the inverse relation between benefits and risks. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Problematizing the concept of the "borderline" group in performance assessments.

PubMed

Homer, Matt; Pell, Godfrey; Fuller, Richard

2017-05-01

Many standard setting procedures focus on the performance of the "borderline" group, defined through expert judgments by assessors. In performance assessments such as Objective Structured Clinical Examinations (OSCEs), these judgments usually apply at the station level. Using largely descriptive approaches, we analyze the assessment profile of OSCE candidates at the end of a five year undergraduate medical degree program to investigate the consistency of the borderline group across stations. We look specifically at those candidates who are borderline in individual stations, and in the overall assessment. While the borderline group can be clearly defined at the individual station level, our key finding is that the membership of this group varies considerably across stations. These findings pose challenges for some standard setting methods, particularly the borderline group and objective borderline methods. They also suggest that institutions should ensure appropriate conjunctive rules to limit compensation in performance between stations to maximize "diagnostic accuracy". In addition, this work highlights a key benefit of sequential testing formats in OSCEs. In comparison with a traditional, single-test format, sequential models allow assessment of "borderline" candidates across a wider range of content areas with concomitant improvements in pass/fail decision-making.

[Constitutional analysis of Mexican Official Norm NOM-174-SSA1-1998 for the handling of obesity].

PubMed

Cossío Díaz, José Ramón

2013-01-01

The First Chamber of the Mexican Supreme Court of Justice decided, by a majority of four votes, on a case where it had to be evaluated if some articles of a Mexican Official Norm (NOM) on obesity violated human rights. The majority in the chamber concluded that the restrictions went against Medics' prescribing or therapeutic rights, and therefore their freedom to work. Justice Cossío Díaz voted against the judgment and wrote a separate opinion where he holds, first of all, that the prescribing right works as a guideline for the medical profession and is not an essential element of the freedom to work. Secondly, he points out that the freedom to work is not an absolute right, for it has certain limits permitted by the Constitution. Consequently, experts' opinions should have been consulted for them to be able to determine if the NOM´s requirements were in accordance with the Constitution. Finally, he considers that the judgment should have introduced a balancing test between freedom to work and the patient's health rights, since this last-mentioned right was what the NOM intended to protect.

Sometimes area counts more than number.

PubMed

Hurewitz, Felicia; Gelman, Rochel; Schnitzer, Brian

2006-12-19

Using an interference paradigm, we show across three experiments that adults' order judgments of numbers, sizes, or combined area of dots in pairs of arrays occur spontaneously and automatically, but at different speeds and levels of accuracy. Experiment 1 used circles whose sizes varied between but not within arrays. Variation in circle size interfered with judgments of which array had more circles. Experiment 2 used displays in which circle size varied within and between arrays. Between-array differences in the amount of "circle stuff" (area occupied by circles) interfered with judgments of number. Experiment 3 examined whether variation in number also interferes with judgments of area. Interference between discrete and continuous stimulus dimensions occurred in both directions, although it was stronger from the continuous to the discrete than vice versa. These results bear on interpretations of studies with infants and preschoolers wherein subjects respond on the basis of continuous quantity rather than discrete quantity. In light of our results with adults, these findings do not license the conclusion that young children cannot represent discrete quantity. Absent data on attentional hierarchies and speed of processing, it is premature to conclude that infant and child quantity processes are fundamentally different from that of adults.

ALE meta-analysis on facial judgments of trustworthiness and attractiveness.

PubMed

Bzdok, D; Langner, R; Caspers, S; Kurth, F; Habel, U; Zilles, K; Laird, A; Eickhoff, Simon B

2011-01-01

Faces convey a multitude of information in social interaction, among which are trustworthiness and attractiveness. Humans process and evaluate these two dimensions very quickly due to their great adaptive importance. Trustworthiness evaluation is crucial for modulating behavior toward strangers; attractiveness evaluation is a crucial factor for mate selection, possibly providing cues for reproductive success. As both dimensions rapidly guide social behavior, this study tests the hypothesis that both judgments may be subserved by overlapping brain networks. To this end, we conducted an activation likelihood estimation meta-analysis on 16 functional magnetic resonance imaging studies pertaining to facial judgments of trustworthiness and attractiveness. Throughout combined, individual, and conjunction analyses on those two facial judgments, we observed consistent maxima in the amygdala which corroborates our initial hypothesis. This finding supports the contemporary paradigm shift extending the amygdala's role from dominantly processing negative emotional stimuli to processing socially relevant ones. We speculate that the amygdala filters sensory information with evolutionarily conserved relevance. Our data suggest that such a role includes not only "fight-or-flight" decisions but also social behaviors with longer term pay-off schedules, e.g., trustworthiness and attractiveness evaluation. © Springer-Verlag 2010

Combining Techniques to Refine Item to Skills Q-Matrices with a Partition Tree

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Desmarais, Michel C.; Xu, Peng; Beheshti, Behzad

2015-01-01

The problem of mapping items to skills is gaining interest with the emergence of recent techniques that can use data for both defining this mapping, and for refining mappings given by experts. We investigate the problem of refining mapping from an expert by combining the output of different techniques. The combination is based on a partition tree…

A model to systematically employ professional judgment in the Bayesian Decision Analysis for a semiconductor industry exposure assessment.

PubMed

Torres, Craig; Jones, Rachael; Boelter, Fred; Poole, James; Dell, Linda; Harper, Paul

2014-01-01

Bayesian Decision Analysis (BDA) uses Bayesian statistics to integrate multiple types of exposure information and classify exposures within the exposure rating categorization scheme promoted in American Industrial Hygiene Association (AIHA) publications. Prior distributions for BDA may be developed from existing monitoring data, mathematical models, or professional judgment. Professional judgments may misclassify exposures. We suggest that a structured qualitative risk assessment (QLRA) method can provide consistency and transparency in professional judgments. In this analysis, we use a structured QLRA method to define prior distributions (priors) for BDA. We applied this approach at three semiconductor facilities in South Korea, and present an evaluation of the performance of structured QLRA for determination of priors, and an evaluation of occupational exposures using BDA. Specifically, the structured QLRA was applied to chemical agents in similar exposure groups to identify provisional risk ratings. Standard priors were developed for each risk rating before review of historical monitoring data. Newly collected monitoring data were used to update priors informed by QLRA or historical monitoring data, and determine the posterior distribution. Exposure ratings were defined by the rating category with the highest probability--i.e., the most likely. We found the most likely exposure rating in the QLRA-informed priors to be consistent with historical and newly collected monitoring data, and the posterior exposure ratings developed with QLRA-informed priors to be equal to or greater than those developed with data-informed priors in 94% of comparisons. Overall, exposures at these facilities are consistent with well-controlled work environments. That is, the 95th percentile of exposure distributions are ≤50% of the occupational exposure limit (OEL) for all chemical-SEG combinations evaluated; and are ≤10% of the limit for 94% of chemical-SEG combinations evaluated.

New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands.

PubMed

van den Hurk, B; Tank, A K; Lenderink, G; Ulden, A van; Oldenborgh, G J van; Katsman, C; Brink, H van den; Keller, F; Bessembinder, J; Burgers, G; Komen, G; Hazeleger, W; Drijfhout, S

2007-01-01

A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.

An expert system for choosing the best combination of options in a general purpose program for automated design synthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rogers, J. L.; Barthelemy, J.-F. M.

1986-01-01

An expert system called EXADS has been developed to aid users of the Automated Design Synthesis (ADS) general purpose optimization program. ADS has approximately 100 combinations of strategy, optimizer, and one-dimensional search options from which to choose. It is difficult for a nonexpert to make this choice. This expert system aids the user in choosing the best combination of options based on the users knowledge of the problem and the expert knowledge stored in the knowledge base. The knowledge base is divided into three categories; constrained problems, unconstrained problems, and constrained problems being treated as unconstrained problems. The inference engine and rules are written in LISP, contains about 200 rules, and executes on DEC-VAX (with Franz-LISP) and IBM PC (with IQ-LISP) computers.

Expert Systems: A Challenge for the Reading Profession.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Balajthy, Ernest

The expert systems are designed to imitate the reasoning of a human expert in a content area field. Designed to be advisors, these software systems combine the content area knowledge and decision-making ability of an expert with the user's understanding and knowledge of particular circumstances. The reading diagnosis system, the RD2P System…

Optimal frame-by-frame result combination strategy for OCR in video stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulatov, Konstantin; Lynchenko, Aleksander; Krivtsov, Valeriy

2018-04-01

This paper describes the problem of combining classification results of multiple observations of one object. This task can be regarded as a particular case of a decision-making using a combination of experts votes with calculated weights. The accuracy of various methods of combining the classification results depending on different models of input data is investigated on the example of frame-by-frame character recognition in a video stream. Experimentally it is shown that the strategy of choosing a single most competent expert in case of input data without irrelevant observations has an advantage (in this case irrelevant means with character localization and segmentation errors). At the same time this work demonstrates the advantage of combining several most competent experts according to multiplication rule or voting if irrelevant samples are present in the input data.

Patients' ratings of genetic conditions validate a taxonomy to simplify decisions about preconception carrier screening via genome sequencing.

PubMed

Leo, Michael C; McMullen, Carmit; Wilfond, Benjamin S; Lynch, Frances L; Reiss, Jacob A; Gilmore, Marian J; Himes, Patricia; Kauffman, Tia L; Davis, James V; Jarvik, Gail P; Berg, Jonathan S; Harding, Cary; Kennedy, Kathleen A; Simpson, Dana Kostiner; Quigley, Denise I; Richards, C Sue; Rope, Alan F; Goddard, Katrina A B

2016-03-01

Advances in genome sequencing and gene discovery have created opportunities to efficiently assess more genetic conditions than ever before. Given the large number of conditions that can be screened, the implementation of expanded carrier screening using genome sequencing will require practical methods of simplifying decisions about the conditions for which patients want to be screened. One method to simplify decision making is to generate a taxonomy based on expert judgment. However, expert perceptions of condition attributes used to classify these conditions may differ from those used by patients. To understand whether expert and patient perceptions differ, we asked women who had received preconception genetic carrier screening in the last 3 years to fill out a survey to rate the attributes (predictability, controllability, visibility, and severity) of several autosomal recessive or X-linked genetic conditions. These conditions were classified into one of five taxonomy categories developed by subject experts (significantly shortened lifespan, serious medical problems, mild medical problems, unpredictable medical outcomes, and adult-onset conditions). A total of 193 women provided 739 usable ratings across 20 conditions. The mean ratings and correlations demonstrated that participants made distinctions across both attributes and categories. Aggregated mean attribute ratings across categories demonstrated logical consistency between the key features of each attribute and category, although participants perceived little difference between the mild and serious categories. This study provides empirical evidence for the validity of our proposed taxonomy, which will simplify patient decisions for results they would like to receive from preconception carrier screening via genome sequencing. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Defining decision making: a qualitative study of international experts' views on surgical trainee decision making.

PubMed

Rennie, Sarah C; van Rij, Andre M; Jaye, Chrystal; Hall, Katherine H

2011-06-01

Decision making is a key competency of surgeons; however, how best to assess decisions and decision makers is not clearly established. The aim of the present study was to identify criteria that inform judgments about surgical trainees' decision-making skills. A qualitative free text web-based survey was distributed to recognized international experts in Surgery, Medical Education, and Cognitive Research. Half the participants were asked to identify features of good decisions, characteristics of good decision makers, and essential factors for developing good decision-making skills. The other half were asked to consider these areas in relation to poor decision making. Template analysis of free text responses was performed. Twenty-nine (52%) experts responded to the survey, identifying 13 categories for judging a decision and 14 for judging a decision maker. Twelve features/characteristics overlapped (considered, informed, well timed, aware of limitations, communicated, knowledgeable, collaborative, patient-focused, flexible, able to act on the decision, evidence-based, and coherent). Fifteen categories were generated for essential factors leading to development of decision-making skills that fall into three major themes (personal qualities, training, and culture). The categories compiled from the perspectives of good/poor were predominantly the inverse of each other; however, the weighting given to some categories varied. This study provides criteria described by experts when considering surgical decisions, decision makers, and development of decision-making skills. It proposes a working definition of a good decision maker. Understanding these criteria will enable clinical teachers to better recognize and encourage good decision-making skills and identify poor decision-making skills for remediation.

The application of machine vision in fire protection system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Jiang

2018-04-01

Based on the previous research, this paper introduces the theory of wavelet, collects the situation through the video system, and calculates the key information needed in the fire protection system. That is, through the algorithm to collect the information, according to the flame color characteristics and smoke characteristics were extracted, and as the characteristic information corresponding processing. Alarm system set the corresponding alarm threshold, when more than this alarm threshold, the system will alarm. This combination of flame color characteristics and smoke characteristics of the fire method not only improve the accuracy of judgment, but also improve the efficiency of judgments. Experiments show that the scheme is feasible.

Rotation and direction judgment from visual images head-slaved in two and three degrees-of-freedom.

PubMed

Adelstein, B D; Ellis, S R

2000-03-01

The contribution to spatial awareness of adding a roll degree-of-freedom (DOF) to telepresence camera platform yaw and pitch was examined in an experiment where subjects judged direction and rotation of stationary target markers in a remote scene. Subjects viewed the scene via head-slaved camera images in a head-mounted display. Elimination of the roll DOF affected rotation judgment, but only at extreme yaw and pitch combinations, and did not affect azimuth and elevation judgement. Systematic azimuth overshoot occurred regardless of roll condition. Observed rotation misjudgments are explained by kinematic models for eye-head direction of gaze.

Satellite Power System (SPS): an Overview of Prospective Organizational Structures in the Solar Satellite Field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edler, H. G.

1978-01-01

A literature survey, interviews with acknowledged experts in the fields of organizational entities, space, solar energy, and the SPS concept, and an analysis of these inputs to identify the organizational alternatives and make judgments as to their feasibility to serve as patterns for a future SPS entity are presented. Selection and evaluation criteria were determined to include timeliness, reliability, and adequacy to contribute meaningfully to the U.S. supply; political feasibility (both national and international) and cost-effectiveness (including environmental and other external costs). Based on these criteria, four organizational alternatives are discussed which offer reasonable promise as potential options for SPS. These included three domestic alternatives and one international alternative.

Content validity of critical success factors for e-Government implementation in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Napitupulu, D.; Syafrullah, M.; Rahim, R.; Amar, A.; Sucahyo, YG

2018-05-01

The purpose of this research is to validate the Critical Success Factors (CSFs) of e-Government implementation in Indonesia. The e-Government initiative conducted only to obey the regulation but ignoring the quality. Defining CSFs will help government agencies to avoid failure of e-Government projects. A survey with the questionnaire was used to validate the item of CSF based on expert judgment through two round of Delphi. The result showed from 67 subjects in instrument tested; there are 11 invalid items deleted and remain only 56 items that had good content validity and internal reliability. Therefore, all 56 CSFs should be adopted by government agencies in Indonesia to support e-Government implementation.

EXSPRT: An Expert Systems Approach to Computer-Based Adaptive Testing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frick, Theodore W.; And Others

Expert systems can be used to aid decision making. A computerized adaptive test (CAT) is one kind of expert system, although it is not commonly recognized as such. A new approach, termed EXSPRT, was devised that combines expert systems reasoning and sequential probability ratio test stopping rules. EXSPRT-R uses random selection of test items,…

Job Exposure Matrix for Electric Shock Risks with Their Uncertainties

PubMed Central

Vergara, Ximena P.; Fischer, Heidi J.; Yost, Michael; Silva, Michael; Lombardi, David A.; Kheifets, Leeka

2015-01-01

We present an update to an electric shock job exposure matrix (JEM) that assigned ordinal electric shocks exposure for 501 occupational titles based on electric shocks and electrocutions from two available data sources and expert judgment. Using formal expert elicitation and starting with data on electric injury, we arrive at a consensus-based JEM. In our new JEM, we quantify exposures by adding three new dimensions: (1) the elicited median proportion; (2) the elicited 25th percentile; and (3) and the elicited 75th percentile of those experiencing occupational electric shocks in a working lifetime. We construct the relative interquartile range (rIQR) based on uncertainty interval and the median. Finally, we describe overall results, highlight examples demonstrating the impact of cut point selection on exposure assignment, and evaluate potential impacts of such selection on epidemiologic studies of the electric work environment. In conclusion, novel methods allowed for consistent exposure estimates that move from qualitative to quantitative measures in this population-based JEM. Overlapping ranges of median exposure in various categories reflect our limited knowledge about this exposure. PMID:25856552

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.

1998-04-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library ofmore » uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.« less

Elemental Study on Auscultaiting Diagnosis Support System of Hemodialysis Shunt Stenosis by ANN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Yutaka; Fukasawa, Mizuya; Mori, Takahiro; Sakata, Osamu; Hattori, Asobu; Kato, Takaya

It is desired to detect stenosis at an early stage to use hemodailysis shunt for longer time. Stethoscope auscultation of vascular murmurs is useful noninvasive diagnostic approach, but an experienced expert operator is necessary. Some experts often say that the high-pitch murmurs exist if the shunt becomes stenosed, and some studies report that there are some features detected at high frequency by time-frequency analysis. However, some of the murmurs are difficult to detect, and the final judgment is difficult. This study proposes a new diagnosis support system to screen stenosis by using vascular murmurs. The system is performed using artificial neural networks (ANN) with the analyzed frequency data by maximum entropy method (MEM). The author recorded vascular murmurs both before percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) and after. Examining the MEM spectral characteristics of the high-pitch stenosis murmurs, three features could be classified, which covered 85 percent of stenosis vascular murmurs. The features were learnt by the ANN, and judged. As a result, a percentage of judging the classified stenosis murmurs was 100%, and that of normal was 86%.

Job exposure matrix for electric shock risks with their uncertainties.

PubMed

Vergara, Ximena P; Fischer, Heidi J; Yost, Michael; Silva, Michael; Lombardi, David A; Kheifets, Leeka

2015-04-08

We present an update to an electric shock job exposure matrix (JEM) that assigned ordinal electric shocks exposure for 501 occupational titles based on electric shocks and electrocutions from two available data sources and expert judgment. Using formal expert elicitation and starting with data on electric injury, we arrive at a consensus-based JEM. In our new JEM, we quantify exposures by adding three new dimensions: (1) the elicited median proportion; (2) the elicited 25th percentile; and (3) and the elicited 75th percentile of those experiencing occupational electric shocks in a working lifetime. We construct the relative interquartile range (rIQR) based on uncertainty interval and the median. Finally, we describe overall results, highlight examples demonstrating the impact of cut point selection on exposure assignment, and evaluate potential impacts of such selection on epidemiologic studies of the electric work environment. In conclusion, novel methods allowed for consistent exposure estimates that move from qualitative to quantitative measures in this population-based JEM. Overlapping ranges of median exposure in various categories reflect our limited knowledge about this exposure.

Harnessing ecosystem models and multi-criteria decision analysis for the support of forest management.

PubMed

Wolfslehner, Bernhard; Seidl, Rupert

2010-12-01

The decision-making environment in forest management (FM) has changed drastically during the last decades. Forest management planning is facing increasing complexity due to a widening portfolio of forest goods and services, a societal demand for a rational, transparent decision process and rising uncertainties concerning future environmental conditions (e.g., climate change). Methodological responses to these challenges include an intensified use of ecosystem models to provide an enriched, quantitative information base for FM planning. Furthermore, multi-criteria methods are increasingly used to amalgamate information, preferences, expert judgments and value expressions, in support of the participatory and communicative dimensions of modern forestry. Although the potential of combining these two approaches has been demonstrated in a number of studies, methodological aspects in interfacing forest ecosystem models (FEM) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are scarcely addressed explicitly. In this contribution we review the state of the art in FEM and MCDA in the context of FM planning and highlight some of the crucial issues when combining ecosystem and preference modeling. We discuss issues and requirements in selecting approaches suitable for supporting FM planning problems from the growing body of FEM and MCDA concepts. We furthermore identify two major challenges in a harmonized application of FEM-MCDA: (i) the design and implementation of an indicator-based analysis framework capturing ecological and social aspects and their interactions relevant for the decision process, and (ii) holistic information management that supports consistent use of different information sources, provides meta-information as well as information on uncertainties throughout the planning process.

Harnessing Ecosystem Models and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Support of Forest Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfslehner, Bernhard; Seidl, Rupert

2010-12-01

The decision-making environment in forest management (FM) has changed drastically during the last decades. Forest management planning is facing increasing complexity due to a widening portfolio of forest goods and services, a societal demand for a rational, transparent decision process and rising uncertainties concerning future environmental conditions (e.g., climate change). Methodological responses to these challenges include an intensified use of ecosystem models to provide an enriched, quantitative information base for FM planning. Furthermore, multi-criteria methods are increasingly used to amalgamate information, preferences, expert judgments and value expressions, in support of the participatory and communicative dimensions of modern forestry. Although the potential of combining these two approaches has been demonstrated in a number of studies, methodological aspects in interfacing forest ecosystem models (FEM) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are scarcely addressed explicitly. In this contribution we review the state of the art in FEM and MCDA in the context of FM planning and highlight some of the crucial issues when combining ecosystem and preference modeling. We discuss issues and requirements in selecting approaches suitable for supporting FM planning problems from the growing body of FEM and MCDA concepts. We furthermore identify two major challenges in a harmonized application of FEM-MCDA: (i) the design and implementation of an indicator-based analysis framework capturing ecological and social aspects and their interactions relevant for the decision process, and (ii) holistic information management that supports consistent use of different information sources, provides meta-information as well as information on uncertainties throughout the planning process.

A New Method to Retrieve the Data Requirements of the Remote Sensing Community – Exemplarily Demonstrated for Hyperspectral User Needs

PubMed Central

Nieke, Jens; Reusen, Ils

2007-01-01

User-driven requirements for remote sensing data are difficult to define, especially details on geometric, spectral and radiometric parameters. Even more difficult is a decent assessment of the required degrees of processing and corresponding data quality. It is therefore a real challenge to appropriately assess data costs and services to be provided. In 2006, the HYRESSA project was initiated within the framework 6 programme of the European Commission to analyze the user needs of the hyperspectral remote sensing community. Special focus was given to finding an answer to the key question, “What are the individual user requirements for hyperspectral imagery and its related data products?”. A Value-Benefit Analysis (VBA) was performed to retrieve user needs and address open items accordingly. The VBA is an established tool for systematic problem solving by supporting the possibility of comparing competing projects or solutions. It enables evaluation on the basis of a multidimensional objective model and can be augmented with expert's preferences. After undergoing a VBA, the scaling method (e.g., Law of Comparative Judgment) was applied for achieving the desired ranking judgments. The result, which is the relative value of projects with respect to a well-defined main objective, can therefore be produced analytically using a VBA. A multidimensional objective model adhering to VBA methodology was established. Thereafter, end users and experts were requested to fill out a Questionnaire of User Needs (QUN) at the highest level of detail - the value indicator level. The end user was additionally requested to report personal preferences for his particular research field. In the end, results from the experts' evaluation and results from a sensor data survey can be compared in order to understand user needs and the drawbacks of existing data products. The investigation – focusing on the needs of the hyperspectral user community in Europe – showed that a VBA is a suitable method for analyzing the needs of hyperspectral data users and supporting the sensor/data specification-building process. The VBA has the advantage of being easy to handle, resulting in a comprehensive evaluation. The primary disadvantage is the large effort in realizing such an analysis because the level of detail is extremely high.

17 CFR 229.303 - (Item 303) Management's discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... may be combined whenever the two topics are interrelated. Where in the registrant's judgment a... or credit risk support to, or engages in leasing, hedging or research and development services with...

The Role of Agent and Social Context in Judgments of Freedom of Speech and Religion.

PubMed

Helwig, Charles C

1997-06-01

This study examined children's, adolescents', and college students' judgments of the rights of child and adult agents to freedom of speech and religion in 3 social contexts: the general level of society, the school, and the family. Two hundred forty participants, evenly divided into 5 grade levels (mean ages 6,6, 8,5,10,6,12,4, and 22,7) made judgments of the legitimacy of authority prohibition, rule evaluation, generalizability, and rule violation for all freedom/social context/agent combinations. Concepts of freedom of speech and religion were found to emerge in the early elementary school years, and endorsements of freedoms were increasingly affected by social context and agent with age. College students were less likely than any other age group to affirm children's freedom of religion in the family context. Considerations of the mental competence and maturity of agents and the potential for harm to ensue from acting on freedoms played an important part in the decisions of older, but not younger, participants.

Interface strategies in monolingual and end-state L2 Spanish grammars are not that different.

PubMed

Parafita Couto, María C; Mueller Gathercole, Virginia C; Stadthagen-González, Hans

2014-01-01

This study explores syntactic, pragmatic, and lexical influences on adherence to SV and VS orders in native and fluent L2 speakers of Spanish. A judgment task examined 20 native monolingual and 20 longstanding L2 bilingual Spanish speakers' acceptance of SV and VS structures. Seventy-six distinct verbs were tested under a combination of syntactic and pragmatic constraints. Our findings challenge the hypothesis that internal interfaces are acquired more easily than external interfaces (Sorace, 2005, 2011; Sorace and Filiaci, 2006; White, 2006). Additional findings are that (a) bilinguals' judgments are less firm overall than monolinguals' (i.e., monolinguals are more likely to give extreme "yes" or "no" judgments) and (b) individual verbs do not necessarily behave as predicted under standard definitions of unaccusatives and unergatives. Correlations of the patterns found in the data with verb frequencies suggest that usage-based accounts of grammatical knowledge could help provide insight into speakers' knowledge of these constructs.

COMPUTERIZED RISK AND BIOACCUMULATION SYSTEM (VERSION 1.0)

EPA Science Inventory

CRABS is a combination of a rule-based expert system and more traditional procedural programming techniques. ule-based expert systems attempt to emulate the decision making process of human experts within a clearly defined subject area. xpert systems consist of an "inference engi...

American Society of Nephrology Quiz and Questionnaire 2015: Electrolytes and Acid-Base Disorders.

PubMed

Rosner, Mitchell H; Perazella, Mark A; Choi, Michael J

2016-04-07

The Nephrology Quiz and Questionnaire remains an extremely popular session for attendees of the annual Kidney Week meeting of the American Society of Nephrology. During the 2015 meeting the conference hall was once again overflowing with eager quiz participants. Topics covered by the experts included electrolyte and acid-base disorders, glomerular disease, end-stage renal disease and dialysis, and kidney transplantation. Complex cases representing each of these categories together with single-best-answer questions were prepared and submitted by the panel of experts. Before the meeting, training program directors of nephrology fellowship programs and nephrology fellows in the United States answered the questions through an internet-based questionnaire. During the live session members of the audience tested their knowledge and judgment on the same series of case-oriented questions in a quiz. The audience compared their answers in real time using a cell-phone app containing the answers of the nephrology fellows and training program directors. The results of the online questionnaire were displayed, and then the quiz answers were discussed. As always, the audience, lecturers, and moderators enjoyed this highly educational session. This article recapitulates the session and reproduces selected content of educational value for theClinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrologyreaders. Enjoy the clinical cases and expert discussions. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

The "right" way is not always popular: comparison of surgeons' perceptions during laparoscopic cholecystectomy for acute cholecystitis among experts from Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

PubMed

Hibi, Taizo; Iwashita, Yukio; Ohyama, Tetsuji; Honda, Goro; Yoshida, Masahiro; Takada, Tadahiro; Han, Ho-Seong; Hwang, Tsann-Long; Shinya, Satoshi; Suzuki, Kenji; Umezawa, Akiko; Yoon, Yoo-Seok; Choi, In-Seok; Huang, Wayne Shih-Wei; Chen, Kuo-Hsin; Miura, Fumihiko; Watanabe, Manabu; Abe, Yuta; Misawa, Takeyuki; Nagakawa, Yuichi; Yoon, Dong-Sup; Jang, Jin-Young; Yu, Hee Chul; Ahn, Keun Soo; Kim, Song Cheol; Song, In Sang; Kim, Ji Hoon; Yun, Sung Su; Choi, Seong Ho; Jan, Yi-Yin; Sheen-Chen, Shyr-Ming; Shan, Yan-Shen; Ker, Chen-Guo; Chan, De-Chuan; Wu, Cheng-Chung; Toyota, Naoyuki; Higuchi, Ryota; Nakamura, Yoshiharu; Mizuguchi, Yoshiaki; Takeda, Yutaka; Ito, Masahiro; Norimizu, Shinji; Yamada, Shigetoshi; Matsumura, Naoki; Shindoh, Junichi; Sunagawa, Hiroki; Gocho, Takeshi; Hasegawa, Hiroshi; Rikiyama, Toshiki; Sata, Naohiro; Kano, Nobuyasu; Kitano, Seigo; Tokumura, Hiromi; Yamashita, Yuichi; Watanabe, Goro; Nakagawa, Kunitoshi; Kimura, Taizo; Yamakawa, Tatsuo; Wakabayashi, Go; Endo, Itaru; Miyazaki, Masaru; Yamamoto, Masakazu

2017-01-01

Generally, surgeons' perceptions of surgical safety are based on experience and institutional policy. Our recent pilot survey demonstrated that the acceptable duration of surgery and criteria for open conversion during laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) vary among workplaces. A web-based survey was distributed to 554 expert LC surgeons in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. The questionnaire covered LC experience, safety measures and recognition of landmarks, decision-making regarding conversion to open/partial cholecystectomy and the implications of this decision. Overall responses were compared among nations, and then stratified by LC experience level (lifetime cases 200-499, 500-999, and ≥1,000). The response rate was 92.6% (513/554); 67 surgeons with ≤199 LCs were excluded, and responses from 446 surgeons were analyzed. We observed significant differences among nations on almost all questions. Differences that remained after stratification by LC experience were on questions related to acceptable duration of surgery, adoption rates of intraoperative cholangiography, the "critical view of safety" technique, identification of Rouvière's sulcus, recognition of the SS-Inner layer theory, and intraoperative judgment to abandon conventional LC. Even among experts, surgeons' perceptions during LC are workplace-dependent. A novel grading system of surgical difficulty and standardized LC procedures are paramount to generate high-level evidence. © 2016 Japanese Society of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery.

Debiasing Health-Related Judgments and Decision Making: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Ludolph, Ramona; Schulz, Peter J

2018-01-01

Being confronted with uncertainty in the context of health-related judgments and decision making can give rise to the occurrence of systematic biases. These biases may detrimentally affect lay persons and health experts alike. Debiasing aims at mitigating these negative effects by eliminating or reducing the biases. However, little is known about its effectiveness. This study seeks to systematically review the research on health-related debiasing to identify new opportunities and challenges for successful debiasing strategies. A systematic search resulted in 2748 abstracts eligible for screening. Sixty-eight articles reporting 87 relevant studies met the predefined inclusion criteria and were categorized and analyzed with regard to content and quality. All steps were undertaken independently by 2 reviewers, and inconsistencies were resolved through discussion. The majority of debiasing interventions ( n = 60) was at least partially successful. Optimistic biases ( n = 25), framing effects ( n = 14), and base rate neglects ( n = 10) were the main targets of debiasing efforts. Cognitive strategies ( n = 36) such as "consider-the-opposite" and technological interventions ( n = 33) such as visual aids were mainly tested. Thirteen studies aimed at debiasing health care professionals' judgments, while 74 interventions addressed the general population. Studies' methodological quality ranged from 26.2% to 92.9%, with an average rating of 68.7%. In the past, the usefulness of debiasing was often debated. Yet most of the interventions reviewed here are found to be effective, pointing to the utility of debiasing in the health context. In particular, technological strategies offer a novel opportunity to pursue large-scale debiasing outside the laboratory. The need to strengthen the transfer of debiasing interventions to real-life settings and a lack of conceptual rigor are identified as the main challenges requiring further research.

Can Simple Transmission Chains Foster Collective Intelligence in Binary-Choice Tasks?

PubMed Central

Moussaïd, Mehdi; Seyed Yahosseini, Kyanoush

2016-01-01

In many social systems, groups of individuals can find remarkably efficient solutions to complex cognitive problems, sometimes even outperforming a single expert. The success of the group, however, crucially depends on how the judgments of the group members are aggregated to produce the collective answer. A large variety of such aggregation methods have been described in the literature, such as averaging the independent judgments, relying on the majority or setting up a group discussion. In the present work, we introduce a novel approach for aggregating judgments—the transmission chain—which has not yet been consistently evaluated in the context of collective intelligence. In a transmission chain, all group members have access to a unique collective solution and can improve it sequentially. Over repeated improvements, the collective solution that emerges reflects the judgments of every group members. We address the question of whether such a transmission chain can foster collective intelligence for binary-choice problems. In a series of numerical simulations, we explore the impact of various factors on the performance of the transmission chain, such as the group size, the model parameters, and the structure of the population. The performance of this method is compared to those of the majority rule and the confidence-weighted majority. Finally, we rely on two existing datasets of individuals performing a series of binary decisions to evaluate the expected performances of the three methods empirically. We find that the parameter space where the transmission chain has the best performance rarely appears in real datasets. We conclude that the transmission chain is best suited for other types of problems, such as those that have cumulative properties. PMID:27880825

Method for appraising model validity of randomised controlled trials of homeopathic treatment: multi-rater concordance study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background A method for assessing the model validity of randomised controlled trials of homeopathy is needed. To date, only conventional standards for assessing intrinsic bias (internal validity) of trials have been invoked, with little recognition of the special characteristics of homeopathy. We aimed to identify relevant judgmental domains to use in assessing the model validity of homeopathic treatment (MVHT). We define MVHT as the extent to which a homeopathic intervention and the main measure of its outcome, as implemented in a randomised controlled trial (RCT), reflect 'state-of-the-art' homeopathic practice. Methods Using an iterative process, an international group of experts developed a set of six judgmental domains, with associated descriptive criteria. The domains address: (I) the rationale for the choice of the particular homeopathic intervention; (II) the homeopathic principles reflected in the intervention; (III) the extent of homeopathic practitioner input; (IV) the nature of the main outcome measure; (V) the capability of the main outcome measure to detect change; (VI) the length of follow-up to the endpoint of the study. Six papers reporting RCTs of homeopathy of varying design were randomly selected from the literature. A standard form was used to record each assessor's independent response per domain, using the optional verdicts 'Yes', 'Unclear', 'No'. Concordance among the eight verdicts per domain, across all six papers, was evaluated using the kappa (κ) statistic. Results The six judgmental domains enabled MVHT to be assessed with 'fair' to 'almost perfect' concordance in each case. For the six RCTs examined, the method allowed MVHT to be classified overall as 'acceptable' in three, 'unclear' in two, and 'inadequate' in one. Conclusion Future systematic reviews of RCTs in homeopathy should adopt the MVHT method as part of a complete appraisal of trial validity. PMID:22510227

Positive and negative remember judgments and ROCs in the plurals paradigm: Evidence for alternative decision strategies

PubMed Central

Kapucu, Aycan; Macmillan, Neil A.; Rotello, Caren M.

2010-01-01

Using old-new ratings and remember-know judgments we explored the plurals paradigm, in which studied words must be distinguished from plurality-changed lures. The paradigm allowed us to investigate negative remembering, that is, the remembering of a plural-altered study item; capacity for this judgment was found to be poorer than or equivalent to the conventional positive remembering. A response-bias manipulation affected positive but not negative remembering. The ratings were used to construct ROC curves and test the prediction of the most common dual-process theory of recognition memory (Yonelinas, 2001) that the amount of recollection can be independently estimated from ROC curves and from remember judgments. By fitting the individual data with pure signal-detection (SDT) models and dual-process models that combined SDT and threshold components (HTSDT), we identified two types of subjects. For those who were better described by HTSDT, the predicted convergence of remember-know and ROC measures was observed. For those who were better described by SDT the ROC intercept could not predict the remember rate. The data are consistent with the idea that all subjects rely on the same representation but base their decisions on different partitions of a decision space. PMID:20551335

Rejected by peers-attracted to antisocial media content: rejection-based anger impairs moral judgment among adolescents.

PubMed

Plaisier, Xanthe S; Konijn, Elly A

2013-06-01

Adolescence is an important developmental stage during which both peers and the media have a strong influence. Both peer rejection and the use of morally adverse media are associated with negative developmental outcomes. This study examines processes by which peer rejection might drive adolescents to select antisocial media content by tying together developmental research on peer rejection and research on media effects. Assumed underlying mechanisms are rejection-based anger and frustration and the adolescent's moral judgment. A between-participants experimental design manipulated peer rejection versus acceptance in adolescents (Mage = 13.88 years; N = 74) and young adults (Mage = 21.37 years; N = 75), applying the Cyberball paradigm. Measures included the State Anger Inventory (STAXI) to assess feelings of rejection and the newly devised Media, Morals, and Youth Questionnaire (MMaYQue) to assess media preferences and moral judgment of media content. Using bootstrapping analyses, a double mediation was established: Higher levels of state anger in peer-rejected adolescents induced more tolerable moral judgments of antisocial media content, subsequently instigating a preference for antisocial media content. In contrast, the young adult sample showed no relations between peer rejection and antisocial media preference. Results are discussed within a downward spiral framework of combined peer and media influences. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Experts stress both wellness and amenity aspects of food and nutrition services in assisted living facilities for older adults.

PubMed

Chao, Shirley Y; Dwyer, Johanna T; Houser, Robert F; Jacques, Paul; Tennstedt, Sharon

2008-10-01

There has been no consensus on best practices in food and nutrition services in assisted living facilities for older adults. We documented experts' views on optimal food and nutrition services emphases in assisted living facilities, and factors affecting their views. One hundred thirty-five national experts specializing in health, aging, nutrition and assisted living facilities completed a survey consisting four scenarios (ie, home-style, restaurant/hotel, and health/medical, and a combination of these three) in six food and nutrition services areas: dining room environment, meal services, meal quality, nutrition services, employees' qualifications, and therapeutic nutrition services. Sixty-three percent of experts favored the combination scenario. Dietetics education and experts' beliefs that assisted living facilities should be health promotion and maintenance facilities were significant predictors of emphases, including wellness considerations. Experts' personal views exerted a powerful influence. Experts chose food and nutrition service quality indicators that emphasized a focus on both wellness and amenities as their ideal scenarios for optimal food and nutrition services in assisted living facilities.

Expert systems applied to spacecraft fire safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Richard L.; Kashiwagi, Takashi

1989-01-01

Expert systems are problem-solving programs that combine a knowledge base and a reasoning mechanism to simulate a human expert. The development of an expert system to manage fire safety in spacecraft, in particular the NASA Space Station Freedom, is difficult but clearly advantageous in the long-term. Some needs in low-gravity flammability characteristics, ventilating-flow effects, fire detection, fire extinguishment, and decision models, all necessary to establish the knowledge base for an expert system, are discussed.

Measuring Musical Consonance and Dissonance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

LoPresto, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Most combinations of musical tones are perceived as either "consonant," "pleasing" to the human ear, or "dissonant," which is "not pleasing." Despite being largely subjective in nature, sensations of consonance and dissonance can be quantified and then compared to the judgments of human subjects. The…

Multispectral imaging burn wound tissue classification system: a comparison of test accuracies between several common machine learning algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Squiers, John J.; Li, Weizhi; King, Darlene R.; Mo, Weirong; Zhang, Xu; Lu, Yang; Sellke, Eric W.; Fan, Wensheng; DiMaio, J. Michael; Thatcher, Jeffrey E.

2016-03-01

The clinical judgment of expert burn surgeons is currently the standard on which diagnostic and therapeutic decisionmaking regarding burn injuries is based. Multispectral imaging (MSI) has the potential to increase the accuracy of burn depth assessment and the intraoperative identification of viable wound bed during surgical debridement of burn injuries. A highly accurate classification model must be developed using machine-learning techniques in order to translate MSI data into clinically-relevant information. An animal burn model was developed to build an MSI training database and to study the burn tissue classification ability of several models trained via common machine-learning algorithms. The algorithms tested, from least to most complex, were: K-nearest neighbors (KNN), decision tree (DT), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), weighted linear discriminant analysis (W-LDA), quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), ensemble linear discriminant analysis (EN-LDA), ensemble K-nearest neighbors (EN-KNN), and ensemble decision tree (EN-DT). After the ground-truth database of six tissue types (healthy skin, wound bed, blood, hyperemia, partial injury, full injury) was generated by histopathological analysis, we used 10-fold cross validation to compare the algorithms' performances based on their accuracies in classifying data against the ground truth, and each algorithm was tested 100 times. The mean test accuracy of the algorithms were KNN 68.3%, DT 61.5%, LDA 70.5%, W-LDA 68.1%, QDA 68.9%, EN-LDA 56.8%, EN-KNN 49.7%, and EN-DT 36.5%. LDA had the highest test accuracy, reflecting the bias-variance tradeoff over the range of complexities inherent to the algorithms tested. Several algorithms were able to match the current standard in burn tissue classification, the clinical judgment of expert burn surgeons. These results will guide further development of an MSI burn tissue classification system. Given that there are few surgeons and facilities specializing in burn care, this technology may improve the standard of burn care for patients without access to specialized facilities.

Evidence for different processes involved in the effects of nontemporal stimulus size and numerical digit value on duration judgments.

PubMed

Rammsayer, Thomas H; Verner, Martin

2016-05-01

Perceived duration has been shown to be positively related to task-irrelevant, nontemporal stimulus magnitude. To account for this finding, Walsh's (2003) A Theory of Magnitude (ATOM) model suggests that magnitude of time is not differentiated from magnitude of other nontemporal stimulus characteristics and collectively processed by a generalized magnitude system. In Experiment 1, we investigated the combined effects of stimulus size and numerical quantity, as two nontemporal stimulus dimensions covered by the ATOM model, on duration judgments. Participants were required to reproduce the duration of target intervals marked by Arabic digits varying in physical size and numerical value. While the effect of stimulus size was effectively moderated by target duration, the effect of numerical value appeared to require attentional resources directed to the numerical value in order to become effective. Experiment 2 was designed to further elucidate the mediating influence of attention on the effect of numerical value on duration judgments. An effect of numerical value was only observed when participants' attention was directed to digit value, but not when participants were required to pay special attention to digit parity. While the ATOM model implies a common metrics and generalized magnitude processing for time, size, and quantity, the present findings provided converging evidence for the notion of two qualitatively different mechanisms underlying the effects of nontemporal stimulus size and numerical value on duration judgments. Furthermore, our data challenge the implicit common assumption that the effect of numerical value on duration judgments represents a continuously increasing function of digit magnitude.

A note by any other name: Intonation context rapidly changes absolute note judgments.

PubMed

Van Hedger, Stephen C; Heald, Shannon L M; Uddin, Sophia; Nusbaum, Howard C

2018-04-30

Absolute pitch (AP) judgments, by definition, do not require a reference note, and thus might be viewed as context independent. Here, we specifically test whether short-term exposure to particular intonation contexts influences AP categorization on a rapid time scale and whether such context effects can change from moment to moment. In Experiment 1, participants heard duets in which a "lead" instrument always began before a "secondary" instrument. Both instruments independently varied on intonation (flat, in-tune, or sharp). Despite participants being instructed to judge only the intonation of the secondary instrument, we found that participants treated the lead instrument's intonation as "in-tune" and intonation judgments of the secondary instrument were relativized against this standard. In Experiment 2, participants heard a short antecedent context melody (flat, in-tune, or sharp) followed by an isolated target note (flat, in-tune, or sharp). Target note intonation judgments were once again relativized against the context melody's intonation, though only for notes that were experienced in the context or implied by the context key signature. Moreover, maximally contrastive intonation combinations of context and target engendered systematic note misclassifications. For example, a flat melody resulted in a greater likelihood of misclassifying a "sharp F-sharp" as a "G." These results highlight that both intonation and note category judgments among AP possessors are rapidly modified by the listening environment on the order of seconds, arguing against an invariant mental representation of the absolute pitches of notes. Implications for general auditory theories of perception are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Ordinal judgments of numerical symbols by macaques (Macaca mulatta)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Washburn, David A.; Rumbaugh, Duane M.

1991-01-01

Two rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) learned that the arabic numerals 0 through 9 represented corresponding quantities of food pellets. By manipulating a joystick, the monkeys were able to make a selection of paired numerals presented on a computer screen. Although the monkeys received a corresponding number of pellets even if the lesser of the two numerals was selected, they learned generally to choose the numeral of greatest value even when pellet delivery was made arrhythmic. In subsequent tests, they chose the numerals of greater value when presented in novel combinations or in random arrays of up to five numerals. Thus, the monkeys made ordinal judgments of numerical symbols in accordance with their absolute or relative values.

Potential pros and cons of external healthcare performance evaluation systems: real-life perspectives on Iranian hospital evaluation and accreditation program

PubMed Central

Jaafaripooyan, Ebrahim

2014-01-01

Background: Performance evaluation is essential to quality improvement in healthcare. The current study has identified the potential pros and cons of external healthcare evaluation programs, utilizing them subsequently to look into the merits of a similar case in a developing country. Methods: A mixed method study employing both qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis techniques was adopted to achieve the study end. Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) and professionals were approached for two-stage process of data collection. Results: Potential advantages included greater attractiveness of high accreditation rank healthcare organizations to their customers/purchasers and boosted morale of their personnel. Downsides, as such, comprised the programs’ over-reliance on value judgment of surveyors, routinization and incurring undue cost on the organizations. In addition, the improved, standardized care processes as well as the judgmental nature of program survey were associated, as pros and cons, to the program investigated by the professionals. Conclusion: Besides rendering a tentative assessment of Iranian hospital evaluation program, the study provides those running external performance evaluations with a lens to scrutinize the virtues of their own evaluation systems through identifying the potential advantages and drawbacks of such programs. Moreover, the approach followed could be utilized for performance assessment of similar evaluation programs. PMID:25279381

Judging without criteria? Sickness certification in Dutch disability schemes.

PubMed

Meershoek, Agnes; Krumeich, Anja; Vos, Rein

2007-05-01

The gate-keeping function that physicians perform in determining clients' physical and mental incapacities is widely assumed to be the main reason for the rising numbers of disabled people. The sharp rise in the number of disabled has led many to claim that the disability benefits schemes are untenable. In order to regain public control and to make disabled eligibility procedures more transparent guidelines have been introduced in which medical evaluations are conceptualised as formal rational decisions. It is, however, questionable whether such measures are helpful in achieving their stated aims. This paper is based on ethnographic research on the ways physicians evaluate the eligibility of clients for disability benefits. It argues that assessing incapacity involves much more than formal rational decision-making. Doctors' reasoning is contextual and deliberative in character, and thus their assessment of a client's incapacity is less a technical matter than a normative one. Instead of generating transparency, guidelines based on formal rationality make the complex deliberations on which such judgments are based invisible, because they deny the normative dimension of medical expert decision-making. Therefore, different measures have to be developed that allow this normative dimension to be articulated, since insight into this normative dimension is a necessary pre-condition to be able to criticise disability judgments at all.

[A Triage Scale for Mental Health, an Emerging Practice, a Value-Add for Measuring Demand for Mental Health Services].

PubMed

Boucher, Lucie

Objectives The article aims to present two studies supporting the development of l'Échelle brève de triage RIFCAS en santé mentale 0-99 ans, a measuring instrument used to determine - based on the level of customer demand, seriousness, and urgent need for intervention - the priority of a mental health service across all age groups.Methods Both versions have been subject to a measurement interjudge agreement that is compared against the judgment of professionals and other comparison tools.Results The results produced by the interjudge agreement reflect significant correlations with the priorities established by l'Échelle brève de triage RIFCAS en santé mentale 0-99 ans, the judgment of professional experts and the usual instruments used.Conclusion The final version of the triage scale provides an objective measure for the priority that should be given to all mental health service requests - these encompass all recognized and essential clinical information. Clinicians can rely on a reliable and proven instrument to prioritize service requests before placing them on the waiting list. The use of this instrument facilitates the development of a common procedure between professionals and ensures a fair and safe treatment of users.

Potential pros and cons of external healthcare performance evaluation systems: real-life perspectives on Iranian hospital evaluation and accreditation program.

PubMed

Jaafaripooyan, Ebrahim

2014-09-01

Performance evaluation is essential to quality improvement in healthcare. The current study has identified the potential pros and cons of external healthcare evaluation programs, utilizing them subsequently to look into the merits of a similar case in a developing country. A mixed method study employing both qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis techniques was adopted to achieve the study end. Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) and professionals were approached for two-stage process of data collection. Potential advantages included greater attractiveness of high accreditation rank healthcare organizations to their customers/purchasers and boosted morale of their personnel. Downsides, as such, comprised the programs' over-reliance on value judgment of surveyors, routinization and incurring undue cost on the organizations. In addition, the improved, standardized care processes as well as the judgmental nature of program survey were associated, as pros and cons, to the program investigated by the professionals. Besides rendering a tentative assessment of Iranian hospital evaluation program, the study provides those running external performance evaluations with a lens to scrutinize the virtues of their own evaluation systems through identifying the potential advantages and drawbacks of such programs. Moreover, the approach followed could be utilized for performance assessment of similar evaluation programs.

Speaker and Observer Perceptions of Physical Tension during Stuttering.

PubMed

Tichenor, Seth; Leslie, Paula; Shaiman, Susan; Yaruss, J Scott

2017-01-01

Speech-language pathologists routinely assess physical tension during evaluation of those who stutter. If speakers experience tension that is not visible to clinicians, then judgments of severity may be inaccurate. This study addressed this potential discrepancy by comparing judgments of tension by people who stutter and expert clinicians to determine if clinicians could accurately identify the speakers' experience of physical tension. Ten adults who stutter were audio-video recorded in two speaking samples. Two board-certified specialists in fluency evaluated the samples using the Stuttering Severity Instrument-4 and a checklist adapted for this study. Speakers rated their tension using the same forms, and then discussed their experiences in a qualitative interview so that themes related to physical tension could be identified. The degree of tension reported by speakers was higher than that observed by specialists. Tension in parts of the body that were less visible to the observer (chest, abdomen, throat) was reported more by speakers than by specialists. The thematic analysis revealed that speakers' experience of tension changes over time and that these changes may be related to speakers' acceptance of stuttering. The lack of agreement between speaker and specialist perceptions of tension suggests that using self-reports is a necessary component for supporting the accurate diagnosis of tension in stuttering. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

The expert witness in medical malpractice litigation: through the looking glass.

PubMed

Johnston, James C; Sartwelle, Thomas P

2013-04-01

Neurologists have professional, ethical, and social obligations to ensure that expert witness testimony is reliable, objective, and truthful. In the past, an absence of professional regulatory oversight combined with immunity from civil litigation allowed the partisan expert to flourish. This is no longer the case. The expert witness unquestionably faces an increasingly perilous liability climate, and must be cognizant of the legal rules and procedures. The authors provide guidelines with risk management strategies for the neurologist serving as an expert witness.

Expert systems and simulation models; Proceedings of the Seminar, Tucson, AZ, November 18, 19, 1985

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1986-01-01

The seminar presents papers on modeling and simulation methodology, artificial intelligence and expert systems, environments for simulation/expert system development, and methodology for simulation/expert system development. Particular attention is given to simulation modeling concepts and their representation, modular hierarchical model specification, knowledge representation, and rule-based diagnostic expert system development. Other topics include the combination of symbolic and discrete event simulation, real time inferencing, and the management of large knowledge-based simulation projects.

The Navigation Guide Systematic Review Methodology: A Rigorous and Transparent Method for Translating Environmental Health Science into Better Health Outcomes

PubMed Central

Sutton, Patrice

2014-01-01

Background: Synthesizing what is known about the environmental drivers of health is instrumental to taking prevention-oriented action. Methods of research synthesis commonly used in environmental health lag behind systematic review methods developed in the clinical sciences over the past 20 years. Objectives: We sought to develop a proof of concept of the “Navigation Guide,” a systematic and transparent method of research synthesis in environmental health. Discussion: The Navigation Guide methodology builds on best practices in research synthesis in evidence-based medicine and environmental health. Key points of departure from current methods of expert-based narrative review prevalent in environmental health include a prespecified protocol, standardized and transparent documentation including expert judgment, a comprehensive search strategy, assessment of “risk of bias,” and separation of the science from values and preferences. Key points of departure from evidence-based medicine include assigning a “moderate” quality rating to human observational studies and combining diverse evidence streams. Conclusions: The Navigation Guide methodology is a systematic and rigorous approach to research synthesis that has been developed to reduce bias and maximize transparency in the evaluation of environmental health information. Although novel aspects of the method will require further development and validation, our findings demonstrated that improved methods of research synthesis under development at the National Toxicology Program and under consideration by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are fully achievable. The institutionalization of robust methods of systematic and transparent review would provide a concrete mechanism for linking science to timely action to prevent harm. Citation: Woodruff TJ, Sutton P. 2014. The Navigation Guide systematic review methodology: a rigorous and transparent method for translating environmental health science into better health outcomes. Environ Health Perspect 122:1007–1014; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307175 PMID:24968373

International consensus on preliminary definitions of improvement in adult and juvenile myositis.

PubMed

Rider, Lisa G; Giannini, Edward H; Brunner, Hermine I; Ruperto, Nicola; James-Newton, Laura; Reed, Ann M; Lachenbruch, Peter A; Miller, Frederick W

2004-07-01

To use a core set of outcome measures to develop preliminary definitions of improvement for adult and juvenile myositis as composite end points for therapeutic trials. Twenty-nine experts in the assessment of myositis achieved consensus on 102 adult and 102 juvenile paper patient profiles as clinically improved or not improved. Two hundred twenty-seven candidate definitions of improvement were developed using the experts' consensus ratings as a gold standard and their judgment of clinically meaningful change in the core set of measures. Seventeen additional candidate definitions of improvement were developed from classification and regression tree analysis, a data-mining decision tree tool analysis. Six candidate definitions specifying percentage change or raw change in the core set of measures were developed using logistic regression analysis. Adult and pediatric working groups ranked the 13 top-performing candidate definitions for face validity, clinical sensibility, and ease of use, in which the sensitivity and specificity were >/=75% in adult, pediatric, and combined data sets. Nominal group technique was used to facilitate consensus formation. The definition of improvement (common to the adult and pediatric working groups) that ranked highest was 3 of any 6 of the core set measures improved by >/=20%, with no more than 2 worse by >/=25% (which could not include manual muscle testing to assess strength). Five and 4 additional preliminary definitions of improvement for adult and juvenile myositis, respectively, were also developed, with several definitions common to both groups. Participants also agreed to prospectively test 6 logistic regression definitions of improvement in clinical trials. Consensus preliminary definitions of improvement were developed for adult and juvenile myositis, and these incorporate clinically meaningful change in all myositis core set measures in a composite end point. These definitions require prospective validation, but they are now proposed for use as end points in all myositis trials.

Comparison of two expert-based assessments of diesel exhaust exposure in a case-control study: Programmable decision rules versus expert review of individual jobs

PubMed Central

Pronk, Anjoeka; Stewart, Patricia A.; Coble, Joseph B.; Katki, Hormuzd A.; Wheeler, David C.; Colt, Joanne S.; Baris, Dalsu; Schwenn, Molly; Karagas, Margaret R.; Johnson, Alison; Waddell, Richard; Verrill, Castine; Cherala, Sai; Silverman, Debra T.; Friesen, Melissa C.

2012-01-01

Objectives Professional judgment is necessary to assess occupational exposure in population-based case-control studies; however, the assessments lack transparency and are time-consuming to perform. To improve transparency and efficiency, we systematically applied decision rules to the questionnaire responses to assess diesel exhaust exposure in the New England Bladder Cancer Study, a population-based case-control study. Methods 2,631 participants reported 14,983 jobs; 2,749 jobs were administered questionnaires (‘modules’) with diesel-relevant questions. We applied decision rules to assign exposure metrics based solely on the occupational history responses (OH estimates) and based on the module responses (module estimates); we combined the separate OH and module estimates (OH/module estimates). Each job was also reviewed one at a time to assign exposure (one-by-one review estimates). We evaluated the agreement between the OH, OH/module, and one-by-one review estimates. Results The proportion of exposed jobs was 20–25% for all jobs, depending on approach, and 54–60% for jobs with diesel-relevant modules. The OH/module and one-by-one review had moderately high agreement for all jobs (κw=0.68–0.81) and for jobs with diesel-relevant modules (κw=0.62–0.78) for the probability, intensity, and frequency metrics. For exposed subjects, the Spearman correlation statistic was 0.72 between the cumulative OH/module and one-by-one review estimates. Conclusions The agreement seen here may represent an upper level of agreement because the algorithm and one-by-one review estimates were not fully independent. This study shows that applying decision-based rules can reproduce a one-by-one review, increase transparency and efficiency, and provide a mechanism to replicate exposure decisions in other studies. PMID:22843440

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, appendices A and B

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A.

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulatedmore » jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the second of a three-volume document describing the project and contains two appendices describing the rationales for the dispersion and deposition data along with short biographies of the 16 experts who participated in the project.« less

AutoIHC-scoring: a machine learning framework for automated Allred scoring of molecular expression in ER- and PR-stained breast cancer tissue.

PubMed

Tewary, S; Arun, I; Ahmed, R; Chatterjee, S; Chakraborty, C

2017-11-01

In prognostic evaluation of breast cancer Immunohistochemical (IHC) markers namely, oestrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) are widely used. The expert pathologist investigates qualitatively the stained tissue slide under microscope to provide the Allred score; which is clinically used for therapeutic decision making. Such qualitative judgment is time-consuming, tedious and more often suffers from interobserver variability. As a result, it leads to imprecise IHC score for ER and PR. To overcome this, there is an urgent need of developing a reliable and efficient IHC quantifier for high throughput decision making. In view of this, our study aims at developing an automated IHC profiler for quantitative assessment of ER and PR molecular expression from stained tissue images. We propose here to use CMYK colour space for positively and negatively stained cell extraction for proportion score. Also colour features are used for quantitative assessment of intensity scoring among the positively stained cells. Five different machine learning models namely artificial neural network, Naïve Bayes, K-nearest neighbours, decision tree and random forest are considered for learning the colour features using average red, green and blue pixel values of positively stained cell patches. Fifty cases of ER- and PR-stained tissues have been evaluated for validation with the expert pathologist's score. All five models perform adequately where random forest shows the best correlation with the expert's score (Pearson's correlation coefficient = 0.9192). In the proposed approach the average variation of diaminobenzidine (DAB) to nuclear area from the expert's score is found to be 7.58%, as compared to 27.83% for state-of-the-art ImmunoRatio software. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Microscopy © 2017 Royal Microscopical Society.