Techno-economic analysis for a sugarcane biorefinery: Colombian case.

PubMed

Moncada, Jonathan; El-Halwagi, Mahmoud M; Cardona, Carlos A

2013-05-01

In this paper a techno-economic analysis for a sugarcane biorefinery is presented for the Colombian case. It is shown two scenarios for different conversion pathways as function of feedstock distribution and technologies for sugar, fuel ethanol, PHB, anthocyanins and electricity production. These scenarios are compared with the Colombian base case which simultaneously produce sugar, fuel ethanol and electricity. A simulation procedure was used in order to evaluate biorefinery schemes for all the scenarios, using Aspen Plus software, that include productivity analysis, energy calculations and economic evaluation for each process configuration. The results showed that the configuration with the best economic, environmental and social performance is the one that considers fuel ethanol and PHB production from combined cane bagasse and molasses. This result served as the basis to draw recommendations on technological and economic feasibility as well as social aspects for the implementation of such type of biorefinery in Colombia. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projected use of grazed forages in the United States: 2000 to 2050: A technical document supporting the 2000 USDA Forest Service RPA Assessment

Treesearch

Larry W. van Tassell; E. Tom Bartlett; John E. Mitchell

2001-01-01

Scenario analysis techniques were used to combine projections from 35 grazed forage experts to estimate future forage demand scenarios and examine factors that are anticipated to impact the use of grazed forages in the South, North, and West Regions of the United States. The amount of land available for forage production is projected to decrease in all regions while...

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security in 2050 under a Range of Plausible Socioeconomic and Emissions Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiebe, K.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bodirsky, B.; Kavallari, A.; Mason-d'Croz, D.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Robinson, S.; Sands, R.; Tabeau, A.; Willenbockel, D.; Islam, S.; van Meijl, H.; Mueller, C.; Robertson, R.

2014-12-01

Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. New work extends that analysis to cover a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from three general circulation models are combined with one crop model and five global economic models to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on yields, area, production, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar to 2050. Results show that yield impacts vary with changes in population, income and technology as well as emissions, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.

New generation of elastic network models.

PubMed

López-Blanco, José Ramón; Chacón, Pablo

2016-04-01

The intrinsic flexibility of proteins and nucleic acids can be grasped from remarkably simple mechanical models of particles connected by springs. In recent decades, Elastic Network Models (ENMs) combined with Normal Model Analysis widely confirmed their ability to predict biologically relevant motions of biomolecules and soon became a popular methodology to reveal large-scale dynamics in multiple structural biology scenarios. The simplicity, robustness, low computational cost, and relatively high accuracy are the reasons behind the success of ENMs. This review focuses on recent advances in the development and application of ENMs, paying particular attention to combinations with experimental data. Successful application scenarios include large macromolecular machines, structural refinement, docking, and evolutionary conservation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term prospects for the environmental profile of advanced sugar cane ethanol.

PubMed

da Silva, Cinthia R U; Franco, Henrique Coutinho Junqueira; Junqueira, Tassia Lopes; van Oers, Lauran; van der Voet, Ester; Seabra, Joaquim E A

2014-10-21

This work assessed the environmental impacts of the production and use of 1 MJ of hydrous ethanol (E100) in Brazil in prospective scenarios (2020-2030), considering the deployment of technologies currently under development and better agricultural practices. The life cycle assessment technique was employed using the CML method for the life cycle impact assessment and the Monte Carlo method for the uncertainty analysis. Abiotic depletion, global warming, human toxicity, ecotoxicity, photochemical oxidation, acidification, and eutrophication were the environmental impacts categories analyzed. Results indicate that the proposed improvements (especially no-til farming-scenarios s2 and s4) would lead to environmental benefits in prospective scenarios compared to the current ethanol production (scenario s0). Combined first and second generation ethanol production (scenarios s3 and s4) would require less agricultural land but would not perform better than the projected first generation ethanol, although the uncertainties are relatively high. The best use of 1 ha of sugar cane was also assessed, considering the displacement of the conventional products by ethanol and electricity. No-til practices combined with the production of first generation ethanol and electricity (scenario s2) would lead to the largest mitigation effects for global warming and abiotic depletion. For the remaining categories, emissions would not be mitigated with the utilization of the sugar cane products. However, this conclusion is sensitive to the displaced electricity sources.

Investigating and Modelling Effects of Climatically and Hydrologically Indicators on the Urmia Lake Coastline Changes Using Time Series Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadijamal, M.; Hasanlou, M.

2017-09-01

Study of hydrological parameters of lakes and examine the variation of water level to operate management on water resources are important. The purpose of this study is to investigate and model the Urmia Lake water level changes due to changes in climatically and hydrological indicators that affects in the process of level variation and area of this lake. For this purpose, Landsat satellite images, hydrological data, the daily precipitation, the daily surface evaporation and the daily discharge in total of the lake basin during the period of 2010-2016 have been used. Based on time-series analysis that is conducted on individual data independently with same procedure, to model variation of Urmia Lake level, we used polynomial regression technique and combined polynomial with periodic behavior. In the first scenario, we fit a multivariate linear polynomial to our datasets and determining RMSE, NRSME and R² value. We found that fourth degree polynomial can better fit to our datasets with lowest RMSE value about 9 cm. In the second scenario, we combine polynomial with periodic behavior for modeling. The second scenario has superiority comparing to the first one, by RMSE value about 3 cm.

Minimizing Erosion and Agro-Pollutants Transport from Furrow Irrigated Fields to the Nearby Water Body Using Spatially-Explicit Agent Based Model and Decision Optimization Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghoveisi, H.; Al Dughaishi, U.; Kiker, G.

2017-12-01

Maintaining water quality in agricultural watersheds is a worldwide challenge, especially where furrow irrigation is being practiced. The Yakima River Basin watershed in south central Washington State, (USA) is an example of these impacted areas with elevated load of sediments and other agricultural products due to runoff from furrow-irrigated fields. Within the Yakima basin, the Granger Drain watershed (area of 75 km2) is particularly challenged in this regard with more than 400 flood-irrigated individual parcels (area of 21 km2) growing a variety of crops from maize to grapes. Alternatives for improving water quality from furrow-irrigated parcels include vegetated filter strip (VFS) implementation, furrow water application efficiency, polyacrylamide (PAM) application and irrigation scheduling. These alternatives were simulated separately and in combinations to explore potential Best Management Practices (BMPs) for runoff-related-pollution reduction in a spatially explicit, agent based modeling system (QnD:GrangerDrain). Two regulatory scenarios were tested to BMP adoption within individual parcels. A blanket-style regulatory scenario simulated a total of 60 BMP combinations implemented in all 409 furrow-irrigated parcels. A second regulatory scenario simulated the BMPs in 119 furrow-irrigated parcels designated as "hotspots" based on a standard 12 Mg ha-1 seasonal sediment load. The simulated cumulative runoff and sediment loading from all BMP alternatives were ranked using Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), specifically the Stochastic Multi-Attribute Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) method. Several BMP combinations proved successful in reducing loads below a 25 NTU (91 mg L-1) regulatory sediment concentration. The QnD:GrangerDrain simulations and subsequent MCDA ranking revealed that the BMP combinations of 5 m-VFS and high furrow water efficiency were highly ranked alternatives for both the blanket and hotspot scenarios.

Quantitative assessment of building fire risk to life safety.

PubMed

Guanquan, Chu; Jinhua, Sun

2008-06-01

This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.

Multi-criteria decision analysis of concentrated solar power with thermal energy storage and dry cooling.

PubMed

Klein, Sharon J W

2013-12-17

Decisions about energy backup and cooling options for parabolic trough (PT) concentrated solar power have technical, economic, and environmental implications. Although PT development has increased rapidly in recent years, energy policies do not address backup or cooling option requirements, and very few studies directly compare the diverse implications of these options. This is the first study to compare the annual capacity factor, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), water consumption, land use, and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of PT with different backup options (minimal backup (MB), thermal energy storage (TES), and fossil fuel backup (FF)) and different cooling options (wet (WC) and dry (DC). Multicriteria decision analysis was used with five preference scenarios to identify the highest-scoring energy backup-cooling combination for each preference scenario. MB-WC had the highest score in the Economic and Climate Change-Economy scenarios, while FF-DC and FF-WC had the highest scores in the Equal and Availability scenarios, respectively. TES-DC had the highest score for the Environmental scenario. DC was ranked 1-3 in all preference scenarios. Direct comparisons between GHG emissions and LCOE and between GHG emissions and land use suggest a preference for TES if backup is require for PT plants to compete with baseload generators.

Alternative futures of proactive tools for a citizen's own wellbeing.

PubMed

Meristö, Tarja; Tuohimaa, Hanna; Leppimäki, Sami; Laitinen, Jukka

2009-01-01

The aim of this paper is to create the basis for a vision of an empowered citizen who can control his/her life, especially in relation to health and personal wellbeing with the use of new ICT-tools. The methods used in the study are based on futures studies, especially on scenario methodology. Alternative future paths, i.e. scenarios are constructed using the scenario filter model that we have developed, with market, technology and society perspectives. Scenarios not resulting in the vision are described in what if - analysis as well. The scenarios are combined with Viherä's model on citizen's skills, access and motivation to use new ICT-tools. The concept COPER is targeted to different user groups with an adaptable user interface and its development is user centered. We will consider the effects and the appropriate elements of COPER in every scenario, as well as the possibilities and challenges nursing will confront. As a result we will gain information of the characteristic of COPER that advance the vision. For the future development of COPER the alternative scenarios give the basis for flexibility planning, too.

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

PubMed

Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

2016-07-24

There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation.

Extracting recurrent scenarios from narrative texts using a Bayesian network: application to serious occupational accidents with movement disturbance.

PubMed

Abdat, F; Leclercq, S; Cuny, X; Tissot, C

2014-09-01

A probabilistic approach has been developed to extract recurrent serious Occupational Accident with Movement Disturbance (OAMD) scenarios from narrative texts within a prevention framework. Relevant data extracted from 143 accounts was initially coded as logical combinations of generic accident factors. A Bayesian Network (BN)-based model was then built for OAMDs using these data and expert knowledge. A data clustering process was subsequently performed to group the OAMDs into similar classes from generic factor occurrence and pattern standpoints. Finally, the Most Probable Explanation (MPE) was evaluated and identified as the associated recurrent scenario for each class. Using this approach, 8 scenarios were extracted to describe 143 OAMDs in the construction and metallurgy sectors. Their recurrent nature is discussed. Probable generic factor combinations provide a fair representation of particularly serious OAMDs, as described in narrative texts. This work represents a real contribution to raising company awareness of the variety of circumstances, in which these accidents occur, to progressing in the prevention of such accidents and to developing an analysis framework dedicated to this kind of accident. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multi-criteria spatial deprivation index to support health inequality analyses.

PubMed

Cabrera-Barona, Pablo; Murphy, Thomas; Kienberger, Stefan; Blaschke, Thomas

2015-03-20

Deprivation indices are useful measures to analyze health inequalities. There are several methods to construct these indices, however, few studies have used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-Criteria methods to construct a deprivation index. Therefore, this study applies Multi-Criteria Evaluation to calculate weights for the indicators that make up the deprivation index and a GIS-based fuzzy approach to create different scenarios of this index is also implemented. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to obtain the weights for the indicators of the index. The Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) method using linguistic quantifiers is applied in order to create different deprivation scenarios. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and a Moran's I analysis are employed to explore spatial relationships between the different deprivation measures and two health factors: the distance to health services and the percentage of people that have never had a live birth. This last indicator was considered as the dependent variable in the GWR. The case study is Quito City, in Ecuador. The AHP-based deprivation index show medium and high levels of deprivation (0,511 to 1,000) in specific zones of the study area, even though most of the study area has low values of deprivation. OWA results show deprivation scenarios that can be evaluated considering the different attitudes of decision makers. GWR results indicate that the deprivation index and its OWA scenarios can be considered as local estimators for health related phenomena. Moran's I calculations demonstrate that several deprivation scenarios, in combination with the 'distance to health services' factor, could be explanatory variables to predict the percentage of people that have never had a live birth. The AHP-based deprivation index and the OWA deprivation scenarios developed in this study are Multi-Criteria instruments that can support the identification of highly deprived zones and can support health inequalities analysis in combination with different health factors. The methodology described in this study can be applied in other regions of the world to develop spatial deprivation indices based on Multi-Criteria analysis.

Estimation of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions considering Aging and Climate Change in Residential Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, M.; Park, C.; Park, J. H.; Jung, T. Y.; Lee, D. K.

2015-12-01

The impacts of climate change, particularly that of rising temperatures, are being observed across the globe and are expected to further increase. To counter this phenomenon, numerous nations are focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because energy demand management is considered as a key factor in emissions reduction, it is necessary to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in relation to climate change. Further, because South Korea is the world's fastest nation to become aged, demographics have also become instrumental in the accurate estimation of energy demands and emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sectors of South Korea with regard to climate change and aging to build more accurate strategies for energy demand management and emissions reduction goals. This study, which was stablished with 2010 and 2050 as the base and target years, respectively, was divided into a two-step process. The first step evaluated the effects of aging and climate change on energy demand, and the second estimated future energy use and GHG emissions through projected scenarios. First, aging characteristics and climate change factors were analyzed by using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis and the application of historical data. In the analysis of changes in energy use, the effects of activity, structure, and intensity were considered; the degrees of contribution were derived from each effect in addition to their relations to energy demand. Second, two types of scenarios were stablished based on this analysis. The aging scenarios are business as usual and future characteristics scenarios, and were used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emissions were estimated by using a combination of scenarios. The results of these scenarios show an increase in energy consumption and GHG emissions from 2010 to 2050. This growth is caused by increases in heating energy because the elderly generally spend more time at home, and cooling energy owing to rising temperatures. This study will be useful in the preparation of energy demand management policies and the establishment and attainability of GHG emissions reduction goals.

Student Engagement with a Flipped Classroom Teaching Design Affects Pharmacology Examination Performance in a Manner Dependent on Question Type.

PubMed

White, Paul J; Naidu, Som; Yuriev, Elizabeth; Short, Jennifer L; McLaughlin, Jacqueline E; Larson, Ian C

2017-11-01

Objective: To investigate the relationship between student engagement with the key elements of a flipped classroom approach (preparation and attendance), their attitudes to learning, including strategy development, and their performance on two types of examination questions (knowledge recall and providing rational predictions when faced with novel scenarios). Methods. This study correlated student engagement with the flipped classroom and student disposition to learning with student ability to solve novel scenarios in examinations. Results. Students who both prepared for and attended classes performed significantly better on examination questions that required analysis of novel scenarios compared to students who did not prepare and missed classes. However, there was no difference for both groups of students on examination questions that required knowledge and comprehension. Student motivation and use of strategies correlated with higher examination scores on questions requiring novel scenario analysis. Conclusion. There is a synergistic relationship between class preparation and attendance. The combination of preparation and attendance was positively correlated to assessment type; the relationship was apparent for questions requiring students to solve novel problems but not for questions requiring knowledge or comprehension.

Integrating remediation and resource recovery: On the economic conditions of landfill mining

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frändegård, Per, E-mail: per.frandegard@liu.se; Krook, Joakim; Svensson, Niclas

Highlights: • We compare two remediation scenarios; one with resource recovery and one without. • Economic analysis includes relevant direct costs and revenues for the landfill owner. • High degrees of metal and/or combustible contents are important economic factors. • Landfill tax and the access to a CHP can have a large impact on the result. • Combining landfill mining and remediation may decrease the project cost. - Abstract: This article analyzes the economic potential of integrating material separation and resource recovery into a landfill remediation project, and discusses the result and the largest impact factors. The analysis is donemore » using a direct costs/revenues approach and the stochastic uncertainties are handled using Monte Carlo simulation. Two remediation scenarios are applied to a hypothetical landfill. One scenario includes only remediation, while the second scenario adds resource recovery to the remediation project. Moreover, the second scenario is divided into two cases, case A and B. In case A, the landfill tax needs to be paid for re-deposited material and the landfill holder does not own a combined heat and power plant (CHP), which leads to disposal costs in the form of gate fees. In case B, the landfill tax is waived on the re-deposited material and the landfill holder owns its own CHP. Results show that the remediation project in the first scenario costs about €23/ton. Adding resource recovery as in case A worsens the result to −€36/ton, while for case B the result improves to −€14/ton. This shows the importance of landfill tax and the access to a CHP. Other important factors for the result are the material composition in the landfill, the efficiency of the separation technology used, and the price of the saleable material.« less

Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios

PubMed Central

Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

2016-01-01

The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual-level preventive behaviours combined with the application of larvicides to manage the risk of WNV infection are the interventions most acceptable and effective at reaching current management objectives now and under future theoretical transmission risk. PMID:27494136

Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers - a new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, David; Renau-Pruñonosa, Arianna; Llopis-Albert, Carlos; Morell, Ignacio; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Senent-Aparicio, Javier; Baena-Ruiz, Leticia

2018-05-01

Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastal aquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the freshwater-salt water equilibrium. In this sense climate change (CC) and land use and land cover (LULC) change might significantly influence the availability of groundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand an integrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriate assessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions. The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potential global change (GC) scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquifer that extends over 75 km2 in which important historical LULC changes have been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios will be defined by using an equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projections based on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generated from several regional climatic models with different downscaling approaches. The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULC scenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequential coupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigation requirements and irrigation return models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feed it), and a density-dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibrated using the available historical data, allow testing of the conceptual approximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential global change scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding future scenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows coming from the hydraulically connected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into account expected future LULC changes) and sea level rise (SLR). The proposed analysis is valuable for improving our knowledge about the aquifer, and so comprises a tool to design sustainable adaptation management strategies taking into account the uncertainty in future GC conditions and their impacts. The results show that GC scenarios produce significant increases in the variability of flow budget components and in the salinity.

Scenario Planning for Water Resources: a Forward-looking Approach Combining Science, Demographic Trends and Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, F.; Thorsten, W.

2007-12-01

Although there has been much written about the use of scenario analysis for long-term planning, particularly with respect to the decisions facing firms, the extant literature has few examples of scenarios explicitly applied to water resource issues. Fewer still have considered short-fuse events such as floods and failure of water retention and conveyance structures in the context of longer-term scenarios for water resources planning. We report progress on an effort to develop a unified framework for constructing scenarios for water resource management. We place particular emphasis on semi-arid environments and forces external to the traditional water management process such as high-impact weather and climate events or unforeseen changes in government institutions that may drive unanticipated change in environmental systems. Most water resource scenarios are typically based on high, medium and low projections of demographics (gpcd), climate (precipitation, temperature), and perhaps institutional variables (conveyance infrastructure, legal issues). We discuss the relative merits of this with other approaches including: probabalistic scenarios, which explicitly weight the likelihood of different outcomes; anticipatory scenarios, which consider how to achieve or avoid some subjective future state; strategic scenarios, which seeks to identify the inconsistencies between disciplines in the way the environmental models are constructed

Dynamics of Aviation Biofuel Investment, Incentives, and Market Growth: An Exploration Using the Biomass Scenario Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vimmerstedt, Laura; Newes, Emily

The Federal Aviation Administration promotes the development of an aviation biofuel market, and has pursued a goal of 1 billion gallons of production annually by 2018. Although this goal is unlikely to be met, this analysis applies the Biomass Scenario Model to explore conditions affecting market growth, and identifies policy incentive and oil price conditions under which this level of production might occur, and by what year. Numerous combinations of conditions that are more favorable than current conditions can reach the goal before 2030.

Evaluation of comparative advantages in the profitability and competitiveness of the small-scale dairy system of Tulancingo Valley, Mexico.

PubMed

Posadas-Domínguez, Rodolfo Rogelio; Del Razo-Rodríguez, Oscar Enrique; Almaraz-Buendía, Isaac; Pelaez-Acero, Armando; Espinosa-Muñoz, Verónica; Rebollar-Rebollar, Samuel; Salinas-Martínez, Jesús Armando

2018-06-01

This article combines a Policy Analysis Matrix with a sensitivity and poverty line analysis with the objective of evaluating the economic contribution of comparative advantages to the private profitability and competitiveness of small-scale dairy systems. For 1 year, socioeconomic data were collected from 82 farms selected from four strata via statistical sampling. Two scenarios were established to determine the quantitative contribution of comparative advantages: (1) a simulated scenario, which accounted for the cost of purchasing the total food and the opportunity cost of the family labour force (FLF), and (2) an actual production scenario, which accounted for the cost of producing food and eliminating the payment of the FLF and included other income. The E3 and E4 producers were the most profitable and competitive in the simulated scenario and actual production scenario. Of the four scales evaluated, the E2 and E1 producers were the most efficient in taking advantage of the economic contribution provided by the comparative advantages in their own production of food and employment of the FLF, in addition to accounting for other income, a condition that increased their profitability by 171 and 144% and competitiveness by 346 and 273%, respectively. The poverty results indicated that only E3 and E4 producers were non-vulnerable in the simulated scenario and actual production scenario. The purchase of food was the comparative advantage with the greatest sensitivity to cost increases in the two scenarios analysed, which exacerbated the effect on the E1 and E2 producers.

Dynamic assessment of urban economy-environment-energy system using system dynamics model: A case study in Beijing.

PubMed

Wu, Desheng; Ning, Shuang

2018-07-01

Economic development, accompanying with environmental damage and energy depletion, becomes essential nowadays. There is a complicated and comprehensive interaction between economics, environment and energy. Understanding the operating mechanism of Energy-Environment-Economy model (3E) and its key factors is the inherent part in dealing with the issue. In this paper, we combine System Dynamics model and Geographic Information System to analyze the energy-environment-economy (3E) system both temporally and spatially, which explicitly explore the interaction of economics, energy, and environment and effects of the key influencing factors. Beijing is selected as a case study to verify our SD-GIS model. Alternative scenarios, e.g., current, technology, energy and environment scenarios are explored and compared. Simulation results shows that, current scenario is not sustainable; technology scenario is applicable to economic growth; environment scenario maintains a balanced path of development for long term stability. Policy-making insights are given based on our results and analysis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

CSP opportunity and challenges in a national system: The WWF renewable vision for a 2030 South African electricity mix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gauché, Paul; von Backström, Theodor W.; Brent, Alan C.; Rudman, Justine

2016-05-01

The WWF proposes a renewable energy vision scenario for South Africa as an alternative to the currently mandated policy which favors additional nuclear in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Current policy also blends additional coal, hydropower, renewables and gas turbine (open and combined cycle) capacity. We validated and refined the WWF scenario showing that a renewable favored scenario potentially leads to the lowest cost system while also demonstrating better resilience. This paper focusses on the role that CSP plays within the WWF scenario. For the WWF scenario to lead to a low cost and reliable system, significant CSP capacity was needed and the optimal storage rating was high (avg. 12 hours). Through initial sensitivity analysis of the WWF scenario, we try to understand this role. Our findings suggest that provided CSP capacity is planned well, it indeed can play a pivotal role in our future. Not just in justifying a renewable path, but as essential in the best solution for South Africa in the period leading to 2030.

Benefits and costs of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, under different policy scenarios.

PubMed

Sumarga, Elham; Hein, Lars

Deforestation and oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan province are among the highest in Indonesia. This study examines the physical and monetary impacts of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan up to 2025 under three policy scenarios. Our modelling approach combines a spatial logistic regression model with a set of rules governing land use change as a function of the policy scenario. Our physical and monetary analyses include palm oil expansion and five other ecosystem services: timber, rattan, paddy rice, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat (the last service is analysed in physical units only). In monetary terms, our analysis comprises the contribution of land and ecosystems to economic production, as measured according to the valuation approach of the System of National Accounts. We focus our analysis on government-owned land which covers around 97 % of the province, where the main policy issues are. We show that, in the business-as-usual scenario, the societal costs of carbon emissions and the loss of other ecosystem services far exceed the benefits from increased oil palm production. This is, in particular, related to the conversion of peatlands. We also show that, for Central Kalimantan, the moratorium scenario, which is modelled based on the moratorium currently in place in Indonesia, generates important economic benefits compared to the business-as-usual scenario. In the moratorium scenario, however, there is still conversion of forest to plantation and associated loss of ecosystem services. We developed an alternative, sustainable production scenario based on an ecosystem services approach and show that this policy scenario leads to higher net social benefits including some more space for oil palm expansion.

A novel methodology for interpreting air quality measurements from urban streets using CFD modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solazzo, Efisio; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Cai, Xiaoming

2011-09-01

In this study, a novel computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based methodology has been developed to interpret long-term averaged measurements of pollutant concentrations collected at roadside locations. The methodology is applied to the analysis of pollutant dispersion in Stratford Road (SR), a busy street canyon in Birmingham (UK), where a one-year sampling campaign was carried out between August 2005 and July 2006. Firstly, a number of dispersion scenarios are defined by combining sets of synoptic wind velocity and direction. Assuming neutral atmospheric stability, CFD simulations are conducted for all the scenarios, by applying the standard k-ɛ turbulence model, with the aim of creating a database of normalised pollutant concentrations at specific locations within the street. Modelled concentration for all wind scenarios were compared with hourly observed NO x data. In order to compare with long-term averaged measurements, a weighted average of the CFD-calculated concentration fields was derived, with the weighting coefficients being proportional to the frequency of each scenario observed during the examined period (either monthly or annually). In summary the methodology consists of (i) identifying the main dispersion scenarios for the street based on wind speed and directions data, (ii) creating a database of CFD-calculated concentration fields for the identified dispersion scenarios, and (iii) combining the CFD results based on the frequency of occurrence of each dispersion scenario during the examined period. The methodology has been applied to calculate monthly and annually averaged benzene concentration at several locations within the street canyon so that a direct comparison with observations could be made. The results of this study indicate that, within the simplifying assumption of non-buoyant flow, CFD modelling can aid understanding of long-term air quality measurements, and help assessing the representativeness of monitoring locations for population exposure studies.

Impacts of the Minamata convention on mercury emissions and global deposition from coal-fired power generation in Asia.

PubMed

Giang, Amanda; Stokes, Leah C; Streets, David G; Corbitt, Elizabeth S; Selin, Noelle E

2015-05-05

We explore implications of the United Nations Minamata Convention on Mercury for emissions from Asian coal-fired power generation, and resulting changes to deposition worldwide by 2050. We use engineering analysis, document analysis, and interviews to construct plausible technology scenarios consistent with the Convention. We translate these scenarios into emissions projections for 2050, and use the GEOS-Chem model to calculate global mercury deposition. Where technology requirements in the Convention are flexibly defined, under a global energy and development scenario that relies heavily on coal, we project ∼90 and 150 Mg·y(-1) of avoided power sector emissions for China and India, respectively, in 2050, compared to a scenario in which only current technologies are used. Benefits of this avoided emissions growth are primarily captured regionally, with projected changes in annual average gross deposition over China and India ∼2 and 13 μg·m(-2) lower, respectively, than the current technology case. Stricter, but technologically feasible, mercury control requirements in both countries could lead to a combined additional 170 Mg·y(-1) avoided emissions. Assuming only current technologies but a global transition away from coal avoids 6% and 36% more emissions than this strict technology scenario under heavy coal use for China and India, respectively.

Simulating The Change In Agricultural Fruit Patterns In The Context of River Basin Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloecking, B.; Laue, K.; Stroebl, B.

A new concept has been developed for the integrated analysis of impacts of Global Change and direct human activities on the environment and the society in mesoscale river basins. The main steps of this approach are: (1) Developing a set of regional scenarios of change considering expected changes in climate, economic, demographic and social development, (2) Identification of indicators of sustainability for the impact assessment, (3) Impact analysis of the defined scenarios of development, (4) Evalu- ation of the different scenarios on the basis of the impact analysis to elaborate new stategies in regional development. All steps include consultations with actors and stakeholders. The concept is applied in the western part of Thuringia (7.500 km2), covering the basin of the Unstrut river. This part of the German Elbe river basin is highly suited for food production under the present conditions. Therefore it is a good site for vulnerability studies focused on agriculture. The development of agricultural land-use scenarios for the Unstrut region will be done in form of a bottom-up approach based on adaptation reactions of example farms within the expected boundary condi- tions such as the global food markets and other global economic trends as well as in- ternational agreements. Representing the present conditions in Thuringia, a referential land-use scenario was developed, assuming a complete realisation of the AGENDA 2000 resolutions. Impacts of changed land use in combination with climate change scenarios on plant production and on availability and quality of water are been inves- tigated with the help of a spatial distributed river basin model. A GIS-based approach was developed to locate the spatially not explicit land use scenarios. This approach allows to reproduce the agricultural fruit patterns of a region in a river basin model without taking into account the real field boundaries. First simulation results for the referential climate and land-use scenario for the Unstrut region will be presented.

Exploring climate change vulnerability across sectors and scenarios using indicators of impacts and coping capacity.

PubMed

Dunford, R; Harrison, P A; Jäger, J; Rounsevell, M D A; Tinch, R

Addressing climate change vulnerability requires an understanding of both the level of climate impacts and the capacity of the exposed population to cope. This study developed a methodology for allowing users to explore vulnerability to changes in ecosystem services as a result of climatic and socio-economic changes. It focuses on the vulnerability of Europe across multiple sectors by combining the outputs of a regional integrated assessment (IA) model, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, with maps of coping capacity based on the five capitals approach. The presented methodology enables stakeholder-derived socio-economic futures to be represented within a quantitative integrated modelling framework in a way that changes spatially and temporally with the socio-economic storyline. Vulnerability was mapped for six key ecosystem services in 40 combined climate and socio-economic scenarios. The analysis shows that, whilst the north and west of Europe are generally better placed to cope with climate impacts than the south and east, coping could be improved in all areas. Furthermore, whilst the lack of coping capacity in dystopian scenarios often leads to greater vulnerability, there are complex interactions between sectors that lead to patterns of vulnerability that vary spatially, with scenario and by sector even within the more utopian futures.

Comparison of a Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach with Advanced Safety Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Curtis L; Mandelli, Diego; Zhegang Ma

2014-11-01

As part of the Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) [1], the purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) [2] Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” (SBO) wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe themore » RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario. We also describe our approach we are using to represent advanced flooding analysis.« less

Information Extraction for System-Software Safety Analysis: Calendar Year 2007 Year-End Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.

2008-01-01

This annual report describes work to integrate a set of tools to support early model-based analysis of failures and hazards due to system-software interactions. The tools perform and assist analysts in the following tasks: 1) extract model parts from text for architecture and safety/hazard models; 2) combine the parts with library information to develop the models for visualization and analysis; 3) perform graph analysis on the models to identify possible paths from hazard sources to vulnerable entities and functions, in nominal and anomalous system-software configurations; 4) perform discrete-time-based simulation on the models to investigate scenarios where these paths may play a role in failures and mishaps; and 5) identify resulting candidate scenarios for software integration testing. This paper describes new challenges in a NASA abort system case, and enhancements made to develop the integrated tool set.

A Bayesian Network Based Global Sensitivity Analysis Method for Identifying Dominant Processes in a Multi-physics Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, H.; Chen, X.; Ye, M.; Song, X.; Zachara, J. M.

2016-12-01

Sensitivity analysis has been an important tool in groundwater modeling to identify the influential parameters. Among various sensitivity analysis methods, the variance-based global sensitivity analysis has gained popularity for its model independence characteristic and capability of providing accurate sensitivity measurements. However, the conventional variance-based method only considers uncertainty contribution of single model parameters. In this research, we extended the variance-based method to consider more uncertainty sources and developed a new framework to allow flexible combinations of different uncertainty components. We decompose the uncertainty sources into a hierarchical three-layer structure: scenario, model and parametric. Furthermore, each layer of uncertainty source is capable of containing multiple components. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis framework was then constructed following this three-layer structure using Bayesian network. Different uncertainty components are represented as uncertain nodes in this network. Through the framework, variance-based sensitivity analysis can be implemented with great flexibility of using different grouping strategies for uncertainty components. The variance-based sensitivity analysis thus is improved to be able to investigate the importance of an extended range of uncertainty sources: scenario, model, and other different combinations of uncertainty components which can represent certain key model system processes (e.g., groundwater recharge process, flow reactive transport process). For test and demonstration purposes, the developed methodology was implemented into a test case of real-world groundwater reactive transport modeling with various uncertainty sources. The results demonstrate that the new sensitivity analysis method is able to estimate accurate importance measurements for any uncertainty sources which were formed by different combinations of uncertainty components. The new methodology can provide useful information for environmental management and decision-makers to formulate policies and strategies.

Risk analysis based on hazards interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Trasforini, Eva; De Angeli, Silvia; Becker, Joost

2017-04-01

Despite an increasing need for open, transparent, and credible multi-hazard risk assessment methods, models, and tools, the availability of comprehensive risk information needed to inform disaster risk reduction is limited, and the level of interaction across hazards is not systematically analysed. Risk assessment methodologies for different hazards often produce risk metrics that are not comparable. Hazard interactions (consecutive occurrence two or more different events) are generally neglected, resulting in strongly underestimated risk assessment in the most exposed areas. This study presents cases of interaction between different hazards, showing how subsidence can affect coastal and river flood risk (Jakarta and Bandung, Indonesia) or how flood risk is modified after a seismic event (Italy). The analysis of well documented real study cases, based on a combination between Earth Observation and in-situ data, would serve as basis the formalisation of a multi-hazard methodology, identifying gaps and research frontiers. Multi-hazard risk analysis is performed through the RASOR platform (Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation Of Risk). A scenario-driven query system allow users to simulate future scenarios based on existing and assumed conditions, to compare with historical scenarios, and to model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event (www.rasor.eu).

Characterizing dark matter interacting with extra charged leptons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barducci, D.; Deandrea, A.; Moretti, S.; Panizzi, L.; Prager, H.

2018-04-01

In the context of a simplified leptophilic dark matter (DM) scenario where the mediator is a new charged fermion carrying leptonic quantum number and the DM candidate is either scalar or vector, the complementarity of different bounds is analyzed. In this framework, the extra lepton and DM are odd under a Z2 symmetry, and hence the leptonic mediator can only interact with the DM state and Standard Model leptons of various flavors. We show that there is the possibility to characterize the DM spin (scalar or vector), as well as the nature of the mediator, through a combined analysis of cosmological, flavor and collider data. We present an explicit numerical analysis for a set of benchmarks points of the viable parameter space of our scenario.

Using Multi-Scenario Tsunami Modelling Results combined with Probabilistic Analyses to provide Hazard Information for the South-WestCoast of Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zosseder, K.; Post, J.; Steinmetz, T.; Wegscheider, S.; Strunz, G.

2009-04-01

Indonesia is located at one of the most active geological subduction zones in the world. Following the most recent seaquakes and their subsequent tsunamis in December 2004 and July 2006 it is expected that also in the near future tsunamis are likely to occur due to increased tectonic tensions leading to abrupt vertical seafloor alterations after a century of relative tectonic silence. To face this devastating threat tsunami hazard maps are very important as base for evacuation planning and mitigation strategies. In terms of a tsunami impact the hazard assessment is mostly covered by numerical modelling because the model results normally offer the most precise database for a hazard analysis as they include spatially distributed data and their influence to the hydraulic dynamics. Generally a model result gives a probability for the intensity distribution of a tsunami at the coast (or run up) and the spatial distribution of the maximum inundation area depending on the location and magnitude of the tsunami source used. The boundary condition of the source used for the model is mostly chosen by a worst case approach. Hence the location and magnitude which are likely to occur and which are assumed to generate the worst impact are used to predict the impact at a specific area. But for a tsunami hazard assessment covering a large coastal area, as it is demanded in the GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project in which the present work is embedded, this approach is not practicable because a lot of tsunami sources can cause an impact at the coast and must be considered. Thus a multi-scenario tsunami model approach is developed to provide a reliable hazard assessment covering large areas. For the Indonesian Early Warning System many tsunami scenarios were modelled by the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) at different probable tsunami sources and with different magnitudes along the Sunda Trench. Every modelled scenario delivers the spatial distribution of the inundation for a specific area, the wave height at coast at this area and the estimated times of arrival (ETAs) of the waves, caused by one tsunamigenic source with a specific magnitude. These parameters from the several scenarios can overlap each other along the coast and must be combined to get one comprehensive hazard assessment for all possible future tsunamis at the region under observation. The simplest way to derive the inundation probability along the coast using the multiscenario approach is to overlay all scenario inundation results and to determine how often a point on land will be significantly inundated from the various scenarios. But this does not take into account that the used tsunamigenic sources for the modeled scenarios have different likelihoods of causing a tsunami. Hence a statistical analysis of historical data and geophysical investigation results based on numerical modelling results is added to the hazard assessment, which clearly improves the significance of the hazard assessment. For this purpose the present method is developed and contains a complex logical combination of the diverse probabilities assessed like probability of occurrence for different earthquake magnitudes at different localities, probability of occurrence for a specific wave height at the coast and the probability for every point on land likely to get hit by a tsunami. The values are combined by a logical tree technique and quantified by statistical analysis of historical data and of the tsunami modelling results as mentioned before. This results in a tsunami inundation probability map covering the South West Coast of Indonesia which nevertheless shows a significant spatial diversity offering a good base for evacuation planning and mitigation strategies. Keywords: tsunami hazard assessment, tsunami modelling, probabilistic analysis, early warning

Linear stability analysis of particle-laden hypopycnal plumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farenzena, Bruno Avila; Silvestrini, Jorge Hugo

2017-12-01

Gravity-driven riverine outflows are responsible for carrying sediments to the coastal waters. The turbulent mixing in these flows is associated with shear and gravitational instabilities such as Kelvin-Helmholtz, Holmboe, and Rayleigh-Taylor. Results from temporal linear stability analysis of a two-layer stratified flow are presented, investigating the behavior of settling particles and mixing region thickness on the flow stability in the presence of ambient shear. The particles are considered suspended in the transport fluid, and its sedimentation is modeled with a constant valued settling velocity. Three scenarios, regarding the mixing region thickness, were identified: the poorly mixed environment, the strong mixed environment, and intermediate scenario. It was observed that Kelvin-Helmholtz and settling convection modes are the two fastest growing modes depending on the particles settling velocity and the total Richardson number. The second scenario presents a modified Rayleigh-Taylor instability, which is the dominant mode. The third case can have Kelvin-Helmholtz, settling convection, and modified Rayleigh-Taylor modes as the fastest growing mode depending on the combination of parameters.

Ecological scenarios analyzed and evaluated by a shallow lake model.

PubMed

Kardaetz, Sascha; Strube, Torsten; Brüggemann, Rainer; Nützmann, Gunnar

2008-07-01

We applied the complex ecosystem model EMMO, which was adopted to the shallow lake Müggelsee (Germany), in order to evaluate a large set of ecological scenarios. By means of EMMO, 33 scenarios and 17 indicators were defined to characterize their effects on the lake ecosystem. The indicators were based on model outputs of EMMO and can be separated into biological indicators, such as chlorophyll-a and cyanobacteria, and hydro-chemical indicators, such as phosphorus. The question to be solved was, what is the ranking of the scenarios based on their characterization by these 17 indicators? And how can we handle high quantities of complex data within evaluation procedures? The scenario evaluation was performed by partial order theory which, however, did not provide a clear result. By subsequently applying the hierarchical cluster analysis (complete linkage) it was possible to reduce the data matrix to indicator and scenario representatives. Even though this step implies losses of information, it simplifies the application of partial order theory and the post processing by METEOR. METEOR is derived from partial order theory and allows the stepwise aggregation of indicators, which subsequently leads to a distinct and clear decision. In the final evaluation result the best scenario was the one which defines a minimum nutrient input and no phosphorus release from the sediment while the worst scenario is characterized by a maximum nutrient input and extensive phosphorus release from the sediment. The reasonable and comprehensive results show that the combination of partial order, cluster analysis and METEOR can handle big amounts of data in a very clear and transparent way, and therefore is ideal in the context of complex ecosystem models, like that we applied.

About the Need of Combining Power Market and Power Grid Model Results for Future Energy System Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mende, Denis; Böttger, Diana; Löwer, Lothar; Becker, Holger; Akbulut, Alev; Stock, Sebastian

2018-02-01

The European power grid infrastructure faces various challenges due to the expansion of renewable energy sources (RES). To conduct investigations on interactions between power generation and the power grid, models for the power market as well as for the power grid are necessary. This paper describes the basic functionalities and working principles of both types of models as well as steps to couple power market results and the power grid model. The combination of these models is beneficial in terms of gaining realistic power flow scenarios in the grid model and of being able to pass back results of the power flow and restrictions to the market model. Focus is laid on the power grid model and possible application examples like algorithms in grid analysis, operation and dynamic equipment modelling.

Student Engagement with a Flipped Classroom Teaching Design Affects Pharmacology Examination Performance in a Manner Dependent on Question Type

PubMed Central

Naidu, Som; Yuriev, Elizabeth; Short, Jennifer L.; McLaughlin, Jacqueline E.; Larson, Ian C.

2017-01-01

Objective: To investigate the relationship between student engagement with the key elements of a flipped classroom approach (preparation and attendance), their attitudes to learning, including strategy development, and their performance on two types of examination questions (knowledge recall and providing rational predictions when faced with novel scenarios). Methods. This study correlated student engagement with the flipped classroom and student disposition to learning with student ability to solve novel scenarios in examinations. Results. Students who both prepared for and attended classes performed significantly better on examination questions that required analysis of novel scenarios compared to students who did not prepare and missed classes. However, there was no difference for both groups of students on examination questions that required knowledge and comprehension. Student motivation and use of strategies correlated with higher examination scores on questions requiring novel scenario analysis. Conclusion. There is a synergistic relationship between class preparation and attendance. The combination of preparation and attendance was positively correlated to assessment type; the relationship was apparent for questions requiring students to solve novel problems but not for questions requiring knowledge or comprehension. PMID:29302082

Assessment of environmental impacts following alternative agricultural policy scenarios.

PubMed

Bárlund, I; Lehtonen, H; Tattari, S

2005-01-01

Abstract Finnish agriculture is likely to undergo major changes in the near and intermediate future. The ifuture policy context can be examined at a general level by strategic scenario building. Computer-based modelling in combination with agricultural policy scenarios can in turn create a basis for the assessments of changes in environmental quality following possible changes in Finnish agriculture. The analysis of economic consequences is based on the DREMFIA model, which is applied to study effects of various agricultural policies on land use, animal production, and farmers' income. The model is suitable for an impact analysis covering an extended time span--here up to the year 2015. The changes in land use, obtained with the DREMFIA model assuming rational economic behaviour, form the basis when evaluating environmental impacts of different agricultural policies. The environmental impact assessment is performed using the field scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. The modelled variables are nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and percolation. In this paper the modelling strategy will be presented and highlighted using two case study catchments with varying environmental conditions and land use as an example. In addition, the paper identifies issues arising when connecting policy scenarios with impact modelling.

Modelling a budgetary impact analysis for funding drug-based smoking cessation therapies for patients with major depressive disorder in Spain.

PubMed

Rejas-Gutiérrez, J; Bruguera, E; Cedillo, S

2017-09-01

Smoking is associated with high healthcare resource utilisation and cost to society. Patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) exhibit high susceptibility to nicotine dependence. Varenicline, bupropion and nicotine replacement therapy are all indicated for smoking cessation; however funding by the Spanish national health system (SNHS) is limited. We modelled a budgetary impact analysis (BIA) to estimate the impact of the SNHS funding drug-based therapies for smoking cessation in smokers with MDD. The BIA compared the current unfunded scenario versus a funded scenario (varenicline, bupropion, nicotine replacement therapy combined with medical follow-up and counselling) using the Spanish SNHS and societal perspectives. The BIA design was a hybrid model using a decision tree algorithm (population size: smokers with MDD) and Markov chains (smoking cessation attempts) over a 5-year horizon. Smoking cessation drug efficacy was derived from clinical trials, and smoking cessation costs avoided were taken from an analysis of the Spanish National Health Survey. Results were shown as incremental cost savings. Scenarios and threshold univariate sensitivity analyses tested model robustness. The funded scenario resulted in an increase of 43,478 cessation attempts and 8930 fewer smokers after 5 years compared to the unfunded scenario. The cost of funding was €25.3 million and costs avoided were €26.5 million. There was a cumulative 5-year incremental cost saving of €1.2 million to Spanish society. Results were robust using alternative scenarios. Funding smoking cessation drugs in patients with MDD is of economic benefit to Spain and could produce net savings from the third year of implementation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Role Assessment of GIS Analysis and its Reliability while Ranking Urban Sustainability Using Scenarios Specific to Regional Climate, Community and Culture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salmi, H. Al; Abdulmuttalib, H. M.

2012-07-01

Urban Sustainability expresses the level of conservation of a city while living a town or consuming its urban resources, but the measurement of urban sustainability depends on what are considered important indicators of conservation besides the permitted levels of consumption in accordance with adopted criteria. This criterion should have common factors that are shared for all the members tested or cities to be evaluated as in this particular case for Abu Dhabi, but also have specific factors that are related to the geographic place, community and culture, that is the measures of urban sustainability specific to a middle east climate, community and culture where GIS Vector and Raster analysis have a role or add a value in urban sustainability measurements or grading are considered herein. Scenarios were tested using various GIS data types to replicate urban history (ten years period), current status and expected future of Abu Dhabi City setting factors to climate, community needs and culture. The useful Vector or Raster GIS data sets that are related to every scenario where selected and analysed in the sense of how and how much it can benefit the urban sustainability ranking in quantity and quality tests, this besides assessing the suitable data nature, type and format, the important topology rules to be considered, the useful attributes to be added, the relationships which should be maintained between data types of a geo- database, and specify its usage in a specific scenario test, then setting weights to each and every data type representing some elements of a phenomenon related to urban suitability factor. The results of assessing the role of GIS analysis provided data collection specifications such as the measures of accuracy reliable to a certain type of GIS functional analysis used in an urban sustainability ranking scenario tests. This paper reflects the prior results of the research that is conducted to test the multidiscipline evaluation of urban sustainability using different indicator metrics, that implement vector GIS Analysis and Raster GIS analysis as basic tools to assist the evaluation and increase of its reliability besides assessing and decomposing it, after which a hypothetical implementation of the chosen evaluation model represented by various scenarios was implemented on the planned urban sustainability factors for a certain period of time to appraise the expected future grade of urban sustainability and come out with advises associated with scenarios for assuring gap filling and relative high urban future sustainability. The results this paper is reflecting are concentrating on the elements of vector and raster GIS analysis that assists the proper urban sustainability grading within the chosen model, the reliability of spatial data collected; analysis selected and resulted spatial information. Starting from selecting some important indicators to comprise the model which include regional culture, climate and community needs an example of what was used is Energy Demand & Consumption (Cooling systems). Thus, this factor is related to the climate and it's regional specific as the temperature varies around 30-45 degrees centigrade in city areas, GIS 3D Polygons of building data used to analyse the volume of buildings, attributes "building heights", estimate the number of floors from the equation, following energy demand was calculated and consumption for the unit volume, and compared it in scenario with possible sustainable energy supply or using different environmental friendly cooling systems this is followed by calculating the cooling system effects on an area unit selected to be 1 sq. km, combined with the level of greenery area, and open space, as represented by parks polygons, trees polygons, empty areas, pedestrian polygons and road surface area polygons. (initial measures showed that cooling system consumption can be reduced by around 15-20% with a well-planned building distributions, proper spaces and with using environmental friendly products and building material, temperature levels were also combined in the scenario extracted from satellite images as interpreted from thermal bands 3 times during the period of assessment. Other examples of the assessment of GIS analysis to urban sustainability took place included Waste Productivity, some effects of greenhouse gases measured by the intensity of road polygons and closeness to dwelling areas, industry areas as defined from land use land cover thematic maps produced from classified satellite images then vectors were created to take part in defining their role within the scenarios. City Noise and light intensity assessment was also investigated, as the region experiences rapid development and noise is magnified due to construction activities, closeness of the airports, and highways. The assessment investigated the measures taken by urban planners to reduce degradation or properly manage it. Finally as a conclusion tables were presented to reflect the scenario results in combination with GIS data types, analysis types, and the level of GIS data reliability to measure the sustainability level of a city related to cultural and regional demands.

Simulating surface oil transport during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill: Experiments with the BioCast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolliff, Jason Keith; Smith, Travis A.; Ladner, Sherwin; Arnone, Robert A.

2014-03-01

The U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) is developing nowcast/forecast software systems designed to combine satellite ocean color data streams with physical circulation models in order to produce prognostic fields of ocean surface materials. The Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico provided a test case for the Bio-Optical Forecasting (BioCast) system to rapidly combine the latest satellite imagery of the oil slick distribution with surface circulation fields in order to produce oil slick transport scenarios and forecasts. In one such sequence of experiments, MODIS satellite true color images were combined with high-resolution ocean circulation forecasts from the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) to produce 96-h oil transport simulations. These oil forecasts predicted a major oil slick landfall at Grand Isle, Louisiana, USA that was subsequently observed. A key driver of the landfall scenario was the development of a coastal buoyancy current associated with Mississippi River Delta freshwater outflow. In another series of experiments, longer-term regional circulation model results were combined with oil slick source/sink scenarios to simulate the observed containment of surface oil within the Gulf of Mexico. Both sets of experiments underscore the importance of identifying and simulating potential hydrodynamic conduits of surface oil transport. The addition of explicit sources and sinks of surface oil concentrations provides a framework for increasingly complex oil spill modeling efforts that extend beyond horizontal trajectory analysis.

[Forensic entomology exemplified by a homicide. A combined stain and postmortem time analysis].

PubMed

Benecke, M; Seifert, B

1999-01-01

The combined analysis of both ant and blow fly evidence recovered from a corpse, and from the boot of a suspect, suggested that an assumed scenario in a high profile murder case was likely to be true. The ants (Lasius fuliginous) were used as classical crime scene stains that linked the suspect to the scene. Blow fly maggots (Calliphora spec.) helped to determine the post mortem interval (PMI) with the calculated PMI overlapping with the assumed time of the killing. In the trial, the results of the medico-legal analysis of the insects was understood to be crucial scientific evidence, and the suspect was sentenced to 8 years in prison.

Can we do better? Economic analysis of human resource investment to improve home care service for the elderly in Serbia.

PubMed

Mihic, Marko M; Todorovic, Marija Lj; Obradovic, Vladimir Lj; Mitrovic, Zorica M

2016-01-01

Social services aimed at the elderly are facing great challenges caused by progressive aging of the global population but also by the constant pressure to spend funds in a rational manner. This paper focuses on analyzing the investments into human resources aimed at enhancing home care for the elderly since many countries have recorded progress in the area over the past years. The goal of this paper is to stress the significance of performing an economic analysis of the investment. This paper combines statistical analysis methods such as correlation and regression analysis, methods of economic analysis, and scenario method. The economic analysis of investing in human resources for home care service in Serbia showed that the both scenarios of investing in either additional home care hours or more beneficiaries are cost-efficient. However, the optimal solution with the positive (and the highest) value of economic net present value criterion is to invest in human resources to boost the number of home care hours from 6 to 8 hours per week and increase the number of the beneficiaries to 33%. This paper shows how the statistical and economic analysis results can be used to evaluate different scenarios and enable quality decision-making based on exact data in order to improve health and quality of life of the elderly and spend funds in a rational manner.

Inferring population history with DIY ABC: a user-friendly approach to approximate Bayesian computation.

PubMed

Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Santos, Filipe; Beaumont, Mark A; Robert, Christian P; Marin, Jean-Michel; Balding, David J; Guillemaud, Thomas; Estoup, Arnaud

2008-12-01

Genetic data obtained on population samples convey information about their evolutionary history. Inference methods can extract part of this information but they require sophisticated statistical techniques that have been made available to the biologist community (through computer programs) only for simple and standard situations typically involving a small number of samples. We propose here a computer program (DIY ABC) for inference based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), in which scenarios can be customized by the user to fit many complex situations involving any number of populations and samples. Such scenarios involve any combination of population divergences, admixtures and population size changes. DIY ABC can be used to compare competing scenarios, estimate parameters for one or more scenarios and compute bias and precision measures for a given scenario and known values of parameters (the current version applies to unlinked microsatellite data). This article describes key methods used in the program and provides its main features. The analysis of one simulated and one real dataset, both with complex evolutionary scenarios, illustrates the main possibilities of DIY ABC. The software DIY ABC is freely available at http://www.montpellier.inra.fr/CBGP/diyabc.

Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

PubMed

Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

2016-04-12

Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

Hydrogen production by the solar-powered hybrid sulfur process: Analysis of the integration of the CSP and chemical plants in selected scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberatore, Raffaele; Lanchi, Michela; Turchetti, Luca

2016-05-01

The Hybrid Sulfur (HyS) is a water splitting process for hydrogen production powered with high temperature nuclear heat and electric power; among the numerous thermo-chemical and thermo-electro-chemical cycles proposed in the literature, such cycle is considered to have a particularly high potential also if powered by renewable energy. SOL2HY2 (Solar to Hydrogen Hybrid Cycles) is a 3 year research project, co-funded by the Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking (FCH JU). A significant part of the project activities are devoted to the analysis and optimization of the integration of the solar power plant with the chemical, hydrogen production plant. This work reports a part of the results obtained in such research activity. The analysis presented in this work builds on previous process simulations used to determine the energy requirements of the hydrogen production plant in terms of electric power, medium (<550°C) and high (>550°C) temperature heat. For the supply of medium temperature (MT) heat, a parabolic trough CSP plant using molten salts as heat transfer and storage medium is considered. A central receiver CSP (Concentrated Solar Power) plant is considered to provide high temperature (HT) heat, which is only needed for sulfuric acid decomposition. Finally, electric power is provided by a power block included in the MT solar plant and/or drawn from the grid, depending on the scenario considered. In particular, the analysis presented here focuses on the medium temperature CSP plant, possibly combined with a power block. Different scenarios were analysed by considering plants with different combinations of geographical location and sizing criteria.

Cost-effectiveness of Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) vaccination in Nigeria: a decision analysis using pragmatic parameter estimates for cost and programme coverage.

PubMed

Ekwunife, Obinna I; Lhachimi, Stefan K

2017-12-08

World Health Organisation recommends routine Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) vaccination for girls when its cost-effectiveness in the country or region has been duly considered. We therefore aimed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in Nigeria using pragmatic parameter estimates for cost and programme coverage, i.e. realistically achievable in the studied context. A microsimulation frame-work was used. The natural history for cervical cancer disease was remodelled from a previous Nigerian model-based study. Costing was based on health providers' perspective. Disability adjusted life years attributable to cervical cancer mortality served as benefit estimate. Suitable policy option was obtained by calculating the incremental costs-effectiveness ratio. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to assess parameter uncertainty. One-way sensitivity analysis was used to explore the robustness of the policy recommendation to key parameters alteration. Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was calculated to determine the expected opportunity cost associated with choosing the optimal scenario or strategy at the maximum cost-effectiveness threshold. Combination of the current scenario of opportunistic screening and national HPV vaccination programme (CS + NV) was the only cost-effective and robust policy option. However, CS + NV scenario was only cost-effective so far the unit cost of HPV vaccine did not exceed $5. EVPI analysis showed that it may be worthwhile to conduct additional research to inform the decision to adopt CS + NV. National HPV vaccination combined with opportunist cervical cancer screening is cost-effective in Nigeria. However, adoption of this strategy should depend on its relative efficiency when compared to other competing new vaccines and health interventions.

Risk-based maintenance of ethylene oxide production facilities.

PubMed

Khan, Faisal I; Haddara, Mahmoud R

2004-05-20

This paper discusses a methodology for the design of an optimum inspection and maintenance program. The methodology, called risk-based maintenance (RBM) is based on integrating a reliability approach and a risk assessment strategy to obtain an optimum maintenance schedule. First, the likely equipment failure scenarios are formulated. Out of many likely failure scenarios, the ones, which are most probable, are subjected to a detailed study. Detailed consequence analysis is done for the selected scenarios. Subsequently, these failure scenarios are subjected to a fault tree analysis to determine their probabilities. Finally, risk is computed by combining the results of the consequence and the probability analyses. The calculated risk is compared against known acceptable criteria. The frequencies of the maintenance tasks are obtained by minimizing the estimated risk. A case study involving an ethylene oxide production facility is presented. Out of the five most hazardous units considered, the pipeline used for the transportation of the ethylene is found to have the highest risk. Using available failure data and a lognormal reliability distribution function human health risk factors are calculated. Both societal risk factors and individual risk factors exceeded the acceptable risk criteria. To determine an optimal maintenance interval, a reverse fault tree analysis was used. The maintenance interval was determined such that the original high risk is brought down to an acceptable level. A sensitivity analysis is also undertaken to study the impact of changing the distribution of the reliability model as well as the error in the distribution parameters on the maintenance interval.

Combining Water Quality and Cost-Benefit Analysis to Examine the Implications of Agricultural Best Management Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, N. S.; Easton, Z. M.; Lee, D. R.; Steenhuis, T. S.

2007-12-01

Nutrient runoff from agricultural fields threatens water quality and can impair habitats in many watersheds. Agencies consider these potential risks as they determine acceptable levels of nutrient loading. For example, in the New York City (NYC) watershed, the Environmental Protection Agency's Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for phosphorus (P) has been set at 15μg P L-1 to protect against eutrophication and bacterial outbreaks. In the NYC watersheds agricultural Best Management Practices (BMPs) are the primary means to control nonpoint source P loading. BMPs include riparian buffers, filter strips, manure storage facilities, crop rotation, stripcropping, tree planting and nutrient management plans (NMPs). Water quality research on BMPs to date has included studies on site-specificity of different BMPs, short and long term BMP efficacy, and placement of BMPs with respect to critical source areas. A necessary complement to studies addressing water quality aspects of different BMPs are studies examining the cost-benefit aspects of BMPs. In general, there are installment, maintenance and opportunity costs associated with each BMP, and there are benefits, including cost share agreements between farmers and farm agencies, and increased efficiency of farm production and maintenance. Combining water quality studies and related cost-benefit analyses would help planners and watershed managers determine how best improve water quality. Our research examines the costs-benefit structure associated with BMP scenarios on a one-farm headwater watershed in the Catskill Mountains of NY. The different scenarios include "with and without" BMPs, combinations of BMPs, and different BMP placements across agricultural fields. The costs associated with each BMP scenarios are determined using information from farm agencies and watershed planning agencies. With these data we perform a cost-benefit analysis for the different BMP scenarios and couple the water quality modeling using the Variable Source Loading Function (VSLF) model (Schneiderman et al., 2007) with the cost-benefit analysis to look at the specific water quality and economic consequences of different watershed management scenarios. The results of our study will be useful for planners and watershed managers in determining how best to reduce nonpoint source pollution in a cost-effective manner. References Schneiderman, E.M., T.S. Steenhuis, D.J. Thongs, Z.M. Easton, M.S. Zion, G.F. Mendoza, M.T. Walter, and A.C. Neal. 2007. Incorporating variable source area hydrology into curve number based watershed loading functions. Hydrol. Proc. (In Press).

Impacts of the Minamata Conventionon on Mercury Emissions and Global Deposition from Coal-Fired Power Generation in Asia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Giang, Amanda; Stokes, Leah C.; Streets, David G.

We explore implications of the United Nations Minamata Convention on Mercury for emissions from Asian coal-fired power generation, and resulting changes to deposition worldwide by 2050. We use engineering analysis, document analysis, and interviews to construct plausible technology scenarios consistent with the Convention. We translate these scenarios into emissions projections for 2050, and use the GEOS-Chem model to calculate global mercury deposition. Where technology requirements in the Convention are flexibly defined, under a global energy and development scenario that relies heavily on coal, we project similar to 90 and 150 Mg.y(-1) of avoided power sector emissions for China and India,more » respectively, in 2050, compared to a scenario in which only current technologies are used. Benefits of this avoided emissions growth are primarily captured regionally, with projected changes in annual average gross deposition over China and India similar to 2 and 13 mu g.m(-2) lower, respectively, than the current technology case. Stricter, but technologically feasible, mercury control requirements in both countries could lead to a combined additional 170 Mg.y(-1) avoided emissions. Assuming only current technologies but a global transition away from coal avoids 6% and 36% more emissions than this strict technology scenario under heavy coal use for China and India, respectively.« less

Analysis of ground-motion simulation big data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeda, T.; Fujiwara, H.

2016-12-01

We developed a parallel distributed processing system which applies a big data analysis to the large-scale ground motion simulation data. The system uses ground-motion index values and earthquake scenario parameters as input. We used peak ground velocity value and velocity response spectra as the ground-motion index. The ground-motion index values are calculated from our simulation data. We used simulated long-period ground motion waveforms at about 80,000 meshes calculated by a three dimensional finite difference method based on 369 earthquake scenarios of a great earthquake in the Nankai Trough. These scenarios were constructed by considering the uncertainty of source model parameters such as source area, rupture starting point, asperity location, rupture velocity, fmax and slip function. We used these parameters as the earthquake scenario parameter. The system firstly carries out the clustering of the earthquake scenario in each mesh by the k-means method. The number of clusters is determined in advance using a hierarchical clustering by the Ward's method. The scenario clustering results are converted to the 1-D feature vector. The dimension of the feature vector is the number of scenario combination. If two scenarios belong to the same cluster the component of the feature vector is 1, and otherwise the component is 0. The feature vector shows a `response' of mesh to the assumed earthquake scenario group. Next, the system performs the clustering of the mesh by k-means method using the feature vector of each mesh previously obtained. Here the number of clusters is arbitrarily given. The clustering of scenarios and meshes are performed by parallel distributed processing with Hadoop and Spark, respectively. In this study, we divided the meshes into 20 clusters. The meshes in each cluster are geometrically concentrated. Thus this system can extract regions, in which the meshes have similar `response', as clusters. For each cluster, it is possible to determine particular scenario parameters which characterize the cluster. In other word, by utilizing this system, we can obtain critical scenario parameters of the ground-motion simulation for each evaluation point objectively. This research was supported by CREST, JST.

A Holistic Approach to Scoring in Complex Mobile Learning Scenarios

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gebbe, Marcel; Teine, Matthias; Beutner, Marc

2016-01-01

Interactive dialogues are key elements for designing authentic and motivating learning situations, and in combination with learning analysis they provide educators and users with the opportunity to track information related to professional competences, but mind-sets as well. This paper offers exemplary insights into the project NetEnquiry that is…

Nuclear powered Mars cargo transport mission utilizing advanced ion propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Galecki, Diane L.; Patterson, Michael J.

1987-01-01

Nuclear-powered ion propulsion technology was combined with detailed trajectory analysis to determine propulsion system and trajectory options for an unmanned cargo mission to Mars in support of manned Mars missions. A total of 96 mission scenarios were identified by combining two power levels, two propellants, four values of specific impulse per propellant, three starting altitudes, and two starting velocities. Sixty of these scenarios were selected for a detailed trajectory analysis; a complete propulsion system study was then conducted for 20 of these trajectories. Trip times ranged from 344 days for a xenon propulsion system operating at 300 kW total power and starting from lunar orbit with escape velocity, to 770 days for an argon propulsion system operating at 300 kW total power and starting from nuclear start orbit with circular velocity. Trip times for the 3 MW cases studied ranged from 356 to 413 days. Payload masses ranged from 5700 to 12,300 kg for the 300 kW power level, and from 72,200 to 81,500 kg for the 3 MW power level.

Budgetary impact analysis of buprenorphine-naloxone combination (Suboxone®) in Spain

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Opioid addiction is a worldwide problem. Agonist opioid treatment (AOT) is the most widespread and frequent pharmacotherapeutic approach. Methadone has been the most widely used AOT, but buprenorphine, a partial μ-opiod agonist and a κ-opiod antagonist, is fast gaining acceptance. The objective was to assess the budgetary impact in Spain of the introduction of buprenorphine-naloxone (B/N) combination. Methods A budgetary impact model was developed to estimate healthcare costs of the addition of B/N combination to the therapeutic arsenal for treating opioid dependent patients, during a 3-year period under the National Health System perspective. Inputs for the model were obtained from the specialized scientific literature. Detailed information concerning resource consumption (drug cost, logistics, dispensing, medical, psychiatry and pharmacy supervision, counselling and laboratory test) was obtained from a local expert panel. Costs are expressed in euros (€, 2010). Results The number of patients estimated to be prescribed B/N combination was 2,334; 2,993 and 3,589 in the first, second and third year respectively. Total budget is €85,766,129; €79,855,471 and €79,137,502 in the first, second and third year for the scenario without B/N combination. With B/N combination the total budget would be €86,589,210; €80,398,259 and €79,708,964 in the first, second and third year of the analyses. Incremental cost/patient comparing the addition of the B/N combination to the scenario only with methadone is €10.58; €6.98 and €7.34 in the first, second and third year respectively. Conclusion Addition of B/N combination would imply a maximum incremental yearly cost of €10.58 per patient compared to scenario only with methadone and would provide additional benefits. PMID:22828157

Scenario analysis of fertilizer management practices for N2O mitigation from corn systems in Canada.

PubMed

Abalos, Diego; Smith, Ward N; Grant, Brian B; Drury, Craig F; MacKell, Sarah; Wagner-Riddle, Claudia

2016-12-15

Effective management of nitrogen (N) fertilizer application by farmers provides great potential for reducing emissions of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O). However, such potential is rarely achieved because our understanding of what practices (or combination of practices) lead to N 2 O reductions without compromising crop yields remains far from complete. Using scenario analysis with the process-based model DNDC, this study explored the effects of nine fertilizer practices on N 2 O emissions and crop yields from two corn production systems in Canada. The scenarios differed in: timing of fertilizer application, fertilizer rate, number of applications, fertilizer type, method of application and use of nitrification/urease inhibitors. Statistical analysis showed that during the initial calibration and validation stages the simulated results had no significant total error or bias compared to measured values, yet grain yield estimations warrant further model improvement. Sidedress fertilizer applications reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 60% compared to fall fertilization. Nitrification inhibitors further reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 10%; urease inhibitors had no effect on either N 2 O emissions or crop productivity. The combined adoption of split fertilizer application with inhibitors at a rate 10% lower than the conventional application rate (i.e. 150kgNha -1 ) was successful, but the benefits were lower than those achieved with single fertilization at sidedress. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of fertilizer management practices that enables policy development regarding N 2 O mitigation from agricultural soils in Canada. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparative Analysis of Modeling Studies on China's Future Energy and Emissions Outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zheng, Nina; Zhou, Nan; Fridley, David

The past decade has seen the development of various scenarios describing long-term patterns of future Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, with each new approach adding insights to our understanding of the changing dynamics of energy consumption and aggregate future energy trends. With the recent growing focus on China's energy use and emission mitigation potential, a range of Chinese outlook models have been developed across different institutions including in China's Energy Research Institute's 2050 China Energy and CO2 Emissions Report, McKinsey & Co's China's Green Revolution report, the UK Sussex Energy Group and Tyndall Centre's China's Energy Transition report, and the China-specificmore » section of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009. At the same time, the China Energy Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed a bottom-up, end-use energy model for China with scenario analysis of energy and emission pathways out to 2050. A robust and credible energy and emission model will play a key role in informing policymakers by assessing efficiency policy impacts and understanding the dynamics of future energy consumption and energy saving and emission reduction potential. This is especially true for developing countries such as China, where uncertainties are greater while the economy continues to undergo rapid growth and industrialization. A slightly different assumption or storyline could result in significant discrepancies among different model results. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the key models in terms of their scope, methodologies, key driver assumptions and the associated findings. A comparative analysis of LBNL's energy end-use model scenarios with the five above studies was thus conducted to examine similarities and divergences in methodologies, scenario storylines, macroeconomic drivers and assumptions as well as aggregate energy and emission scenario results. Besides directly tracing different energy and CO{sub 2} savings potential back to the underlying strategies and combination of efficiency and abatement policy instruments represented by each scenario, this analysis also had other important but often overlooked findings.« less

National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments

PubMed Central

Bierwagen, Britta G.; Theobald, David M.; Pyke, Christopher R.; Choate, Anne; Groth, Philip; Thomas, John V.; Morefield, Philip

2010-01-01

Understanding the impacts of climate change on people and the environment requires an understanding of the dynamics of both climate and land use/land cover changes. A range of future climate scenarios is available for the conterminous United States that have been developed based on widely used international greenhouse gas emissions storylines. Climate scenarios derived from these emissions storylines have not been matched with logically consistent land use/cover maps for the United States. This gap is a critical barrier to conducting effective integrated assessments. This study develops novel national scenarios of housing density and impervious surface cover that are logically consistent with emissions storylines. Analysis of these scenarios suggests that combinations of climate and land use/cover can be important in determining environmental conditions regulated under the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts. We found significant differences in patterns of habitat loss and the distribution of potentially impaired watersheds among scenarios, indicating that compact development patterns can reduce habitat loss and the number of impaired watersheds. These scenarios are also associated with lower global greenhouse gas emissions and, consequently, the potential to reduce both the drivers of anthropogenic climate change and the impacts of changing conditions. The residential housing and impervious surface datasets provide a substantial first step toward comprehensive national land use/land cover scenarios, which have broad applicability for integrated assessments as these data and tools are publicly available. PMID:21078956

Inventories and reduction scenarios of urban waste-related greenhouse gas emissions for management potential.

PubMed

Yang, Dewei; Xu, Lingxing; Gao, Xueli; Guo, Qinghai; Huang, Ning

2018-06-01

Waste-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been recognized as one of the prominent contributors to global warming. Current urban waste regulations, however, face increasing challenges from stakeholders' trade-offs and hierarchic management. A combined method, i.e., life cycle inventories and scenario analysis, was employed to investigate waste-related GHG emissions during 1995-2015 and to project future scenarios of waste-driven carbon emissions by 2050 in a pilot low carbon city, Xiamen, China. The process-based carbon analysis of waste generation (prevention and separation), transportation (collection and transfer) and disposal (treatment and recycling) shows that the main contributors of carbon emissions are associated with waste disposal processes, solid waste, the municipal sector and Xiamen Mainland. Significant spatial differences of waste-related CO 2e emissions were observed between Xiamen Island and Xiamen Mainland using the carbon intensity and density indexes. An uptrend of waste-related CO 2e emissions from 2015 to 2050 is identified in the business as usual, waste disposal optimization, waste reduction and the integrated scenario, with mean annual growth rates of 8.86%, 8.42%, 6.90% and 6.61%, respectively. The scenario and sensitivity analysis imply that effective waste-related carbon reduction requires trade-offs among alternative strategies, actions and stakeholders in a feasible plan, and emphasize a priority of waste prevention and collection in Xiamen. Our results could benefit to the future modeling of urban multiple wastes and life-cycle carbon control in similar cities within and beyond China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neutrino constraints: what large-scale structure and CMB data are telling us?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costanzi, Matteo; Sartoris, Barbara; Viel, Matteo; Borgani, Stefano

2014-10-01

We discuss the reliability of neutrino mass constraints, either active or sterile, from the combination of different low redshift Universe probes with measurements of CMB anisotropies. In our analyses we consider WMAP 9-year or Planck Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data in combination with Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) measurements from BOSS DR11, galaxy shear measurements from CFHTLenS, SDSS Ly α forest constraints and galaxy cluster mass function from Chandra observations. At odds with recent similar studies, to avoid model dependence of the constraints we perform a full likelihood analysis for all the datasets employed. As for the cluster data analysis we rely on to the most recent calibration of massive neutrino effects in the halo mass function and we explore the impact of the uncertainty in the mass bias and re-calibration of the halo mass function due to baryonic feedback processes on cosmological parameters. We find that none of the low redshift probes alone provide evidence for massive neutrino in combination with CMB measurements, while a larger than 2σ detection of non zero neutrino mass, either active or sterile, is achieved combining cluster or shear data with CMB and BAO measurements. Yet, the significance of the detection exceeds 3σ if we combine all four datasets. For a three active neutrino scenario, from the joint analysis of CMB, BAO, shear and cluster data including the uncertainty in the mass bias we obtain ∑ mν =0.29+0.18-0.21 eV and ∑ mν =0.22+0.17-0.18 eV 95%CL) using WMAP9 or Planck as CMB dataset, respectively. The preference for massive neutrino is even larger in the sterile neutrino scenario, for which we get mseff=0.44+0.28-0.26 eV and Δ Neff=0.78+0.60-0.59 95%CL) from the joint analysis of Planck, BAO, shear and cluster datasets. For this data combination the vanilla ΛCDM model is rejected at more than 3σ and a sterile neutrino mass as motivated by accelerator anomaly is within the 2σ errors. Conversely, the Ly α data favour vanishing neutrino masses and from the data combination Planck+BAO+Ly α we get the tight upper limits ∑ mν <0.14 eV and mseff<0.22 eV—Δ Neff<1.11 95%CL) for the active and sterile neutrino model, respectively. Finally, results from the full data combination reflect the tension between the σ8 constraints obtained from cluster and shear data and that inferred from Ly α forest measurements; in the active neutrino scenario for both CMB datasets employed, the full data combination yields only an upper limits on ∑ mν, while assuming an extra sterile neutrino we still get preference for non-vanishing mass, mseff=0.26+0.22-0.24 eV, and dark contribution to the radiation content, Δ Neff=0.82±0.55.

Modelling irrigated maize with a combination of coupled-model simulation and uncertainty analysis, in the northwest of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Kinzelbach, W.; Zhou, J.; Cheng, G. D.; Li, X.

2012-05-01

The hydrologic model HYDRUS-1-D and the crop growth model WOFOST are coupled to efficiently manage water resources in agriculture and improve the prediction of crop production. The results of the coupled model are validated by experimental studies of irrigated-maize done in the middle reaches of northwest China's Heihe River, a semi-arid to arid region. Good agreement is achieved between the simulated evapotranspiration, soil moisture and crop production and their respective field measurements made under current maize irrigation and fertilization. Based on the calibrated model, the scenario analysis reveals that the most optimal amount of irrigation is 500-600 mm in this region. However, for regions without detailed observation, the results of the numerical simulation can be unreliable for irrigation decision making owing to the shortage of calibrated model boundary conditions and parameters. So, we develop a method of combining model ensemble simulations and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis to speculate the probability of crop production. In our studies, the uncertainty analysis is used to reveal the risk of facing a loss of crop production as irrigation decreases. The global sensitivity analysis is used to test the coupled model and further quantitatively analyse the impact of the uncertainty of coupled model parameters and environmental scenarios on crop production. This method can be used for estimation in regions with no or reduced data availability.

Is story-based blended learning a promising avenue for skin and sexual health education? Results from the PAEDIMED project.

PubMed

Apfelbacher, Christian J; Deimling, Erika; Wulfhorst, Britta; Adler, Frederic; Diepgen, Thomas L; Linder, Dennis; Blenk, Holger; Stosiek, Nikolaus; Reinmann, Gabi

2010-03-01

The PAEDIMED study group developed a learning and teaching scenario for school health education in the area of skin and sexual health in Italy, Romania and Germany, combining web-based and traditional learning ("blended learning"). A questionnaire-based needs assessment and context analysis were conducted, based on which an education scenario was designed. Particular emphasis was put on emotional and motivational aspects, using narrative components in the didactic concept. The design process occupied a central role in the project (design-based research). Evaluation was both formative and summative. Continuous feedback was obtained from relevant stakeholders. Following a prototypical implementation, the scenario was evaluated using questionnaires. The results revealed a high level of acceptance of the education scenario as well as an increase in students' knowledge concerning skin and sexual health. Evaluation also suggested that health education is highly influenced by cultural background and habits as well as diverse contextual and personal conditions.

Scenarios of future lung cancer incidence by educational level: Modelling study in Denmark.

PubMed

Menvielle, Gwenn; Soerjomataram, Isabelle; de Vries, Esther; Engholm, Gerda; Barendregt, Jan J; Coebergh, Jan Willem; Kunst, Anton E

2010-09-01

To model future trends in lung cancer incidence in Denmark by education under different scenarios for cigarette smoking. Lung cancer incidence until 2050 was modelled using Prevent software. We estimated lung cancer incidence under a baseline scenario and under four alternative scenarios for smoking reduction: decreasing initiation rates among the young, increasing cessation rates among smokers, a scenario combining both changes and a levelling-up scenario in which people with low and medium levels of education acquired the smoking prevalence of the highly educated. Danish National Health Interview Surveys (1987-2005) and cancer registry data combined with individual education status from Statistics Denmark were used for empirical input. Under the baseline scenario, lung cancer rates are expected to decrease for most educational groups during the next few decades, but educational inequalities will increase further. Under the alternative scenarios, an additional decrease in lung cancer rates will be observed from 2030 onwards, but only from 2050 onwards it will be observed under the initiation scenario. The cessation and the combined scenarios show the largest decrease in lung cancer rates for all educational groups. However, in none of these scenarios would the relative differences between educational groups be reduced. A modest decrease in these inequalities will be observed under the levelling-up scenario. Our analyses show that relative inequalities in lung cancer incidence rates will tend to increase. They may be reduced to a small extent if the smoking prevalence of people with a low level of education was to converge towards those more highly educated people. An important decrease in lung cancer rates will be observed in all educational groups, however, especially when focusing on both initiation and cessation strategies. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lempert, R. J.

2015-12-01

Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

Strategic rehabilitation planning of piped water networks using multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Scholten, Lisa; Scheidegger, Andreas; Reichert, Peter; Maurer, Max; Mauer, Max; Lienert, Judit

2014-02-01

To overcome the difficulties of strategic asset management of water distribution networks, a pipe failure and a rehabilitation model are combined to predict the long-term performance of rehabilitation strategies. Bayesian parameter estimation is performed to calibrate the failure and replacement model based on a prior distribution inferred from three large water utilities in Switzerland. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and scenario planning build the framework for evaluating 18 strategic rehabilitation alternatives under future uncertainty. Outcomes for three fundamental objectives (low costs, high reliability, and high intergenerational equity) are assessed. Exploitation of stochastic dominance concepts helps to identify twelve non-dominated alternatives and local sensitivity analysis of stakeholder preferences is used to rank them under four scenarios. Strategies with annual replacement of 1.5-2% of the network perform reasonably well under all scenarios. In contrast, the commonly used reactive replacement is not recommendable unless cost is the only relevant objective. Exemplified for a small Swiss water utility, this approach can readily be adapted to support strategic asset management for any utility size and based on objectives and preferences that matter to the respective decision makers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Protein analysis and gene expression indicate differential vulnerability of Iberian fish species under a climate change scenario.

PubMed

Jesus, Tiago F; Moreno, João M; Repolho, Tiago; Athanasiadis, Alekos; Rosa, Rui; Almeida-Val, Vera M F; Coelho, Maria M

2017-01-01

Current knowledge on the biological responses of freshwater fish under projected scenarios of climate change remains limited. Here, we examine differences in the protein configuration of two endemic Iberian freshwater fish species, Squalius carolitertii and the critically endangered S. torgalensis that inhabit in the Atlantic-type northern and in the Mediterranean-type southwestern regions, respectively. We performed protein structure modeling of fourteen genes linked to protein folding, energy metabolism, circadian rhythms and immune responses. Structural differences in proteins between the two species were found for HSC70, FKBP52, HIF1α and GPB1. For S. torgalensis, besides structural differences, we found higher thermostability for two proteins (HSP90 and GBP1), which can be advantageous in a warmer environment. Additionally, we investigated how these species might respond to projected scenarios of 3° climate change warming, acidification (ΔpH = -0.4), and their combined effects. Significant changes in gene expression were observed in response to all treatments, particularly under the combined warming and acidification. While S. carolitertii presented changes in gene expression for multiple proteins related to folding (hsp90aa1, hsc70, fkbp4 and stip1), only one such gene was altered in S. torgalensis (stip1). However, S. torgalensis showed a greater capacity for energy production under both the acidification and combined scenarios by increasing cs gene expression and maintaining ldha gene expression in muscle. Overall, these findings suggest that S. torgalensis is better prepared to cope with projected climate change. Worryingly, under the simulated scenarios, disturbances to circadian rhythm and immune system genes (cry1aa, per1a and gbp1) raise concerns for the persistence of both species, highlighting the need to consider multi-stressor effects when evaluating climate change impacts upon fish. This work also highlights that assessments of the potential of endangered freshwater species to cope with environmental change are crucial to help decision-makers adopt future conservation strategies.

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit measures that capture magnitude only, sequence only, and combined magnitude and sequence errors. The performance measures include error analysis, coefficient of determination, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, and a new weighted rank method. These performance metrics only provide useful information about the overall model performance. Note that MPESA is based on the separation of observed and simulated time series into magnitude and sequence components. The separation of time series into magnitude and sequence components and the reconstruction back to time series provides diagnostic insights to modelers. For example, traditional approaches lack the capability to identify if the source of uncertainty in the simulated data is due to the quality of the input data or the way the analyst adjusted the model parameters. This report presents a suite of model diagnostics that identify if mismatches between observed and simulated data result from magnitude or sequence related errors. MPESA offers graphical and statistical options that allow HSPF users to compare observed and simulated time series and identify the parameter values to adjust or the input data to modify. The scenario analysis part of the too

UNDERSTANDING THE PAST, MANAGING THE FUTURE - Remotely sensed analysis of the urban sprawl of Istanbul for supporting decision making for a sustainable future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altan, O.; Kemper, G.

2012-07-01

The GIS based analysis of the land use change of Istanbul delivers a huge and comprehensive database that can be used for further analysis. Trend analysis and scenarios enable a view to the future that highlights the needs for a proper planning. Also the understanding via comparison to other cities assists in order not to copy errors from other cities. GIS in combination with ancillary data open a wide field for managing the future of Istanbul.

Analysis of potential water-supply management options, 2010-60, and documentation of revisions to the model of the Irwin Basin Aquifer System, Fort Irwin National Training Center, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Voronin, Lois M.; Densmore, Jill N.; Martin, Peter

2014-01-01

The Fort Irwin National Training Center is considering several alternatives to manage their limited water-supply sources in the Irwin Basin. An existing three-dimensional, finite-difference groundwater-flow model—the U.S. Geological Survey’s MODFLOW—of the aquifer system in the basin was updated and the initial input dataset was supplemented with groundwater withdrawal data for the period 2000–10. The updated model was then used to simulate four combinations, or scenarios, of groundwater withdrawal and recharge over the next 50 years (January 2011 through December 2060). The scenarios included combinations of continuing withdrawals from currently active production wells, supplementing any increases in demand with withdrawals from an inactive production well, reducing withdrawal amounts and rates, and reducing the discharge of treated wastewater to infiltration ponds that provide a recharge source to the underlying aquifer. Results of the simulations indicated that, depending on the scenario implemented, groundwater levels would rise (over the next 50 years) from 40 feet to as much as 65 feet in the northwestern part of the Irwin Basin, and from 5 feet to 10 feet in the southeastern part.

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems.

PubMed

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Geoengineering to Avoid Overshoot: An Uncertainty Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, K.

2009-04-01

Geoengineering (or climate engineering) using stratospheric sulfur injections (Crutzen, 2006) has been called for research in case of an urgent need for stopping global warming when other mitigation efforts were exhausted. Although there are a number of concerns over this idea (e.g. Robock, 2008), it is still useful to consider geoengineering as a possible method to limit warming caused by overshoot. Overshoot is a feature accompanied by low stabilizations scenarios aiming for a stringent target (Rao et al., 2008) in which total radiative forcing temporarily exceeds the target before reaching there. Scenarios achieving a 50% emission reduction by 2050 produces overshoot. Overshoot could cause sustained warming for decades due to the inertia of the climate system. If stratospheric sulfur injections were to be used as a "last resort" to avoid overshoot, what would be the suitable start-year and injection profile of such an intervention? Wigley (2006) examined climate response to combined mitigation/geoengineering scenarios with the intent to avert overshoot. Wigley's analysis demonstrated a basic potential of such a combined mitigation/geoengineering approach to avoid temperature overshoot - however it considered only simplistic sulfur injection profiles (all started in 2010), just one mitigation scenario, and did not examine the sensitivity of the climate response to any underlying uncertainties. This study builds upon Wigley's premise of the combined mitigation/geoengineering approach and brings associated uncertainty into the analysis. First, this study addresses the question as to how much geoengineering intervention would be needed to avoid overshoot by considering associated uncertainty? Then, would a geoengineering intervention of such a magnitude including uncertainty be permissible in considering all the other side effects? This study begins from the supposition that geoengineering could be employed to cap warming at 2.0°C since preindustrial. A few mitigation scenarios having overshoot are formulated. Optimal injection profiles (start-year and magnitude) for capping temperature rise at 2.0°C are calculated for each mitigation scenario. The sensitivity of such results to the uncertain parameters (climate sensitivity, tropospheric aerosol forcing, and ocean diffusivity) is then examined - in particular, I account for the inter-dependency of the estimates of these parameters such that they are consistent with historical observations (e.g. temperature records) by using an inverse estimation approach. I use the simple climate model ACC2 (Tanaka and Kriegler et al., 2007; Tanaka, 2008) - which (unlike Wigley's MAGICC model (Wigley and Raper, 2001)) includes an inversion setup that allows for the exploration of parameter inter-dependency based on historical observational constraints. References Crutzen, P. J. (2006) Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: a contribution to resolve a policy dilemma? Climatic Change, 77, 211-219. Rao, S., K. Riahi, E. Stehfest, D. van Vuuren, C. Cho, M. den Elzen, M. Isaac, J. van Vliet (2008) IMAGE and MESSAGE scenarios limiting GHG concentration to low levels. Interim Report at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) IR-08-020. 57 pp. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/IR-08-020.pdf Robock, A. (2008) 20 reasons why geoengineering may be a bad idea. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 64, 14-18. Tanaka, K., E. Kriegler, T. Bruckner, G. Hooss, W. Knorr, T. Raddatz (2007) Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry, and Climate Model (ACC2): description of the forward and inverse modes. Reports on Earth System Science No. 40. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany. 188 pp. http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/wissenschaft/publikationen/erdsystemforschung.html Tanaka, K. (2008) Inverse estimation for the simple Earth system model ACC2 and its applications. Ph.D. dissertation. Hamburg, Germany: Hamburg Universität, International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, 296 pp. http://www.sub.uni-hamburg.de/opus/volltexte/2008/3654/ Wigley, T. M. L., S. C. B. Raper (2001) Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming. Science, 293, 451-454. Wigley, T. M. L. (2006) A combined mitigation/geoengineering approach to climate stabilization. Science, 314, 452-454.

Automation for System Safety Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land; Throop, David; Thronesbery, Carroll; Flores, Joshua; Bennett, Ted; Wennberg, Paul

2009-01-01

This presentation describes work to integrate a set of tools to support early model-based analysis of failures and hazards due to system-software interactions. The tools perform and assist analysts in the following tasks: 1) extract model parts from text for architecture and safety/hazard models; 2) combine the parts with library information to develop the models for visualization and analysis; 3) perform graph analysis and simulation to identify and evaluate possible paths from hazard sources to vulnerable entities and functions, in nominal and anomalous system-software configurations and scenarios; and 4) identify resulting candidate scenarios for software integration testing. There has been significant technical progress in model extraction from Orion program text sources, architecture model derivation (components and connections) and documentation of extraction sources. Models have been derived from Internal Interface Requirements Documents (IIRDs) and FMEA documents. Linguistic text processing is used to extract model parts and relationships, and the Aerospace Ontology also aids automated model development from the extracted information. Visualizations of these models assist analysts in requirements overview and in checking consistency and completeness.

Using "Audacity" and One Classroom Computer to Experiment with Timbre

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Kenneth H.

2011-01-01

One computer, one class, and one educator can be an effective combination to engage students as a group in music composition, performance, and analysis. Having one desktop computer and a television monitor in the music classroom is not an uncommon or new scenario, especially in a time when many school budgets are being cut. This article…

Energy efficiency in waste-to-energy and its relevance with regard to climate control.

PubMed

Ragossnig, Arne M; Wartha, Christian; Kirchner, Andreas

2008-02-01

This article focuses on systematically highlighting the ways to optimize waste-to-energy plants in terms of their energy efficiency as an indicator of the positive effect with regard to climate control. Potentials for increasing energy efficiency are identified and grouped into categories. The measures mentioned are illustrated by real-world examples. As an example, district cooling as a means for increasing energy efficiency in the district heating network of Vienna is described. Furthermore a scenario analysis shows the relevance of energy efficiency in waste management scenarios based on thermal treatment of waste with regard to climate control. The description is based on a model that comprises all relevant processes from the collection and transportation up to the thermal treatment of waste. The model has been applied for household-like commercial waste. The alternatives compared are a combined heat and power incinerator, which is being introduced in many places as an industrial utility boiler or in metropolitan areas where there is a demand for district heating and a classical municipal solid waste incinerator producing solely electrical power. For comparative purposes a direct landfilling scenario has been included in the scenario analysis. It is shown that the energy efficiency of thermal treatment facilities is crucial to the quantity of greenhouse gases emitted.

Scenario analysis of freight vehicle accident risks in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Ming-Chih; Su, Chien-Chih

2004-07-01

This study develops a quantitative risk model by utilizing Generalized Linear Interactive Model (GLIM) to analyze the major freight vehicle accidents in Taiwan. Eight scenarios are established by interacting three categorical variables of driver ages, vehicle types and road types, each of which contains two levels. The database that consists of 2043 major accidents occurring between 1994 and 1998 in Taiwan is utilized to fit and calibrate the model parameters. The empirical results indicate that accident rates of freight vehicles in Taiwan were high in the scenarios involving trucks and non-freeway systems, while; accident consequences were severe in the scenarios involving mature drivers or non-freeway systems. Empirical evidences also show that there is no significant relationship between accident rates and accident consequences. This is to stress that safety studies that describe risk merely as accident rates rather than the combination of accident rates and consequences by definition might lead to biased risk perceptions. Finally, the study recommends using number of vehicle as an alternative of traffic exposure in commercial vehicle risk analysis. The merits of this would be that it is simple and thus reliable; meanwhile, the resulted risk that is termed as fatalities per vehicle could provide clear and direct policy implications for insurance practices and safety regulations.

Pre-crash scenarios at road junctions: A clustering method for car crash data.

PubMed

Nitsche, Philippe; Thomas, Pete; Stuetz, Rainer; Welsh, Ruth

2017-10-01

Given the recent advancements in autonomous driving functions, one of the main challenges is safe and efficient operation in complex traffic situations such as road junctions. There is a need for comprehensive testing, either in virtual simulation environments or on real-world test tracks. This paper presents a novel data analysis method including the preparation, analysis and visualization of car crash data, to identify the critical pre-crash scenarios at T- and four-legged junctions as a basis for testing the safety of automated driving systems. The presented method employs k-medoids to cluster historical junction crash data into distinct partitions and then applies the association rules algorithm to each cluster to specify the driving scenarios in more detail. The dataset used consists of 1056 junction crashes in the UK, which were exported from the in-depth "On-the-Spot" database. The study resulted in thirteen crash clusters for T-junctions, and six crash clusters for crossroads. Association rules revealed common crash characteristics, which were the basis for the scenario descriptions. The results support existing findings on road junction accidents and provide benchmark situations for safety performance tests in order to reduce the possible number parameter combinations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Paleoflood Data, Extreme Floods and Frequency: Data and Models for Dam Safety Risk Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, J. F.; Godaire, J.; Klinger, R.

2007-12-01

Extreme floods and probability estimates are crucial components in dam safety risk analysis and scenarios for water-resources decision making. The field-based collection of paleoflood data provides needed information on the magnitude and probability of extreme floods at locations of interest in a watershed or region. The stratigraphic record present along streams in the form of terrace and floodplain deposits represent direct indicators of the magnitude of large floods on a river, and may provide 10 to 100 times longer records than conventional stream gaging records of large floods. Paleoflood data is combined with gage and historical streamflow estimates to gain insights to flood frequency scaling, model extrapolations and uncertainty, and provide input scenarios to risk analysis event trees. We illustrate current data collection and flood frequency modeling approaches via case studies in the western United States, including the American River in California and the Arkansas River in Colorado. These studies demonstrate the integration of applied field geology, hydraulics, and surface-water hydrology. Results from these studies illustrate the gains in information content on extreme floods, provide data- based means to separate flood generation processes, guide flood frequency model extrapolations, and reduce uncertainties. These data and scenarios strongly influence water resources management decisions.

Telling better stories: strengthening the story in story and simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kemp-Benedict, Eric

2012-12-01

The scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000) are both widely cited and widely criticized. This combination of censure and regard reflects their importance, as they provide both a point of reference and a point of departure for those wishing to understand the long-term implications of policies and human activities for the climate and adaptive capacity. The paper by Schweizer and Kriegler in this issue (Schweizer and Kriegler 2012) reports a unique and interesting critique of the SRES scenarios. The authors find several results, including that the path the world may now be on (labeled by them 'coal-powered growth') is under-represented in the SRES scenarios. While such post-hoc critiques are easy to dismiss, Schweizer and Kriegler were careful to use only the information available to the SRES authors, and they applied a technique that (if it had been available) could have been carried out at that time. In this way they demonstrate that not only was coal-powered growth a clearly discernible possible future at the time of the SRES, but variants on the theme dominate the handful of highly consistent and robust scenarios as identified by their method. Their paper is well-timed because a new round of climate scenarios is now under development (Kriegler et al 2012, van Vuuren et al 2012), and it could learn from evaluations of the SRES process and scenarios. Schweizer and Kriegler (2012) construct a consistent scenario logic using a relatively new foresight technique, cross-impact balances (CIB) (Weimer-Jehle 2006). As explained above, to sharpen their critique and properly evaluate the method, they apply CIB to the information that the authors of the SRES had at their disposal at the time they constructed their scenarios. Their study is therefore anachronistic, in that the CIB method was not published when the SRES was released, but historically faithful in that Schweizer and Kriegler limit themselves to the information available at that time, based on statements that appear in the SRES itself. The CIB method is a technique for constructing internally consistent qualitative scenarios. Global-scale scenario exercises, in particular climate scenarios, typically include both qualitative (narrative) and quantitative (model) elements. As noted by Schweizer and Kriegler, the dominant method for such studies, which Alcamo (2001, 2008) formalized and named the 'story and simulation' (SAS) approach, relies at least in part on quantitative modeling to ensure consistency. Schweizer and Kriegler rightly criticize the idea that models alone can ensure consistency of a scenario narrative. By itself, this critique is not new. Indeed, if asked, both Alcamo and Raskin et al (Raskin et al 2005), whom Schweizer and Kriegler (2012) cite, would probably agree with them; both sources emphasize the need for qualitative storylines that go beyond what models can provide. However, Schweizer and Kriegler correctly point out that these sources provide little or no guidance to those responsible for the narratives beyond a dialog with the model outputs. The CIB method addresses this problem, and Schweizer and Kriegler's application of the method shows that even the best narrative-writing teams can benefit from this guidance. While the paper of Schweizer and Kriegler makes a compelling argument for using CIB in global scenarios, it should be used in combination with other methods. A scenario exercise has several aims, of which consistency is one. Another important goal is diversity: given a set of internally consistent scenarios, a diverse set covers the space of possibilities, and thereby helps users of the scenarios avoid underestimating or overestimating the potential for change in one or another key factor (e.g., see (Carlsen 2009)). From this point of view, the SRES authors could legitimately respond to Schweizer and Kriegler's finding that the SRES scenarios excluded interesting variants on coal-fueled growth by arguing that they did include some variants, and to include more would have conflicted with a legitimate goal of breadth. In this imagined dialog, Schweizer and Kriegler could concede the point, but then point out that several of the SRES scenarios were revealed to be either marginally or very inconsistent by their exercise. Thus, CIB and a technique that helps ensure breadth can usefully complement one another. The CIB method is also liable to a form of specification error, in that the worldviews of the people filling in the cross-impact table influence the results. This is a problem with many foresight techniques, but it is masked by the formalism of CIB, and there is a danger it will go unnoticed. For example, Schweizer and Kriegler's paper suggests that the A1T2 scenario is (marginally) internally consistent. It has relatively low carbon emissions, low rates of population growth, very high GDP per capita growth rates, low primary energy intensity, very low carbon intensity, high fossil-fuel availability, global economic policy focus, and mixed global and regional energy policy focus. It has been argued by Jackson (2009) and Victor (2008), among others, that the evidence is slim that we ever will decouple carbon emissions from GDP to any meaningful extent. Thus, they would presumably argue that this is an inconsistent scenario, and might very well have done so at the time the SRES was written. That is not by itself a reason to reject the scenario, but it suggests that a CIB exercise could be run assuming the qualitative models implied by different worldviews, and the results contrasted. Such an exercise would go beyond the sensitivity analysis that Schweizer and Kriegler report in their paper. The cross-impact balance method should be a useful tool for constructing the next round of climate scenarios. It will be even more useful if combined with techniques that ensure a diversity of scenarios. This could include formal techniques such as 'scenario diversity analysis', which maximizes a quantitative measure of the spread of a set of qualitative scenarios defined by states of driving forces (Carlsen 2009). It could also include a survey of different worldviews, and the qualitative models that they imply, such as that carried out by Sunderlin (Sunderlin 2003). Futures studies has moved forward from the time the SRES was published, and new techniques are now available that can help us to tell better stories of the future. References Alcamo J 2001 Scenarios as Tools for International Environmental Assessments (Cophenhagen: European Environment Agency) Alcamo J 2008 The SAS approach: combining qualitative and quantitative knowledge in environmental scenarios Environmental Futures—The Practice of Environmental Scenario Analysis vol 2, ed J Alcamo (Amsterdam: Elsevier) pp 123-50 Carlsen H 2009 Climate change and the construction of scenario sets that span the range of societal uncertainties Paper for International Studies Association Annual Convention 2009 (New York City, February) Jackson T 2009 Prosperity Without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet (London: Earthscan) Kriegler E, O'Neill B C, Hallegatte S, Kram T, Lempert R J, Moss R H and Wilbanks T 2012 The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: a new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways Glob. Environ. Change 22 807-22 Nakicenovic N and Swart R (eds) 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Raskin P, Monks F, Ribeiro T, van Vuuren D and Zurek M 2005 Global scenarios in historical perspective Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Scenarios: Findings of the Scenarios Working Group vol 2, ed S R Carpenter et al (Washington, DC: Island) pp 35-44 Schweizer V J and Kriegler E 2012 Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios Environ. Res. Lett. 7 044011 Sunderlin W D 2003 Ideology, Social Theory, and the Environment (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield) van Vuuren D P et al 2012 A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities Glob. Environ. Change 22 21-35 Victor P A 2008 Managing Without Growth: Slower by Design, Not Disaster (Advances in Ecological Economics Series) (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar) Weimer-Jehle W 2006 Cross-impact balances: a system—theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis Technol. Forecast. Social Change 73 334-61

Energy and environmental evaluation of combined cooling heating and power system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bugaj, Andrzej

2017-11-01

The paper addresses issues involving problems of implementing combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) system to industrial facility with well-defined demand profiles of cooling, heating and electricity. The application of CCHP system in this particular industrial facility is being evaluated by comparison with the reference system that consists of three conventional methods of energy supply: (a) electricity from external grid, (b) heat from gas-fired boilers and (c) cooling from vapour compression chillers run by electricity from the grid. The CCHP system scenario is based on the combined heat and power (CHP) plant with gas turbine-compressor arrangement and water/lithium bromide absorption chiller of a single-effect type. Those two scenarios are analysed in terms of annual primary energy usage as well as emissions of CO2. The results of the analysis show an extent of primary energy savings of the CCHP system in comparison with the reference system. Furthermore, the environmental impact of the CCHP usage, in the form of greenhouse gases emission reductions, compares quite favourably with the reference conventional option.

Can we do better? Economic analysis of human resource investment to improve home care service for the elderly in Serbia

PubMed Central

Mihic, Marko M; Todorovic, Marija Lj; Obradovic, Vladimir Lj; Mitrovic, Zorica M

2016-01-01

Background Social services aimed at the elderly are facing great challenges caused by progressive aging of the global population but also by the constant pressure to spend funds in a rational manner. Purpose This paper focuses on analyzing the investments into human resources aimed at enhancing home care for the elderly since many countries have recorded progress in the area over the past years. The goal of this paper is to stress the significance of performing an economic analysis of the investment. Methods This paper combines statistical analysis methods such as correlation and regression analysis, methods of economic analysis, and scenario method. Results The economic analysis of investing in human resources for home care service in Serbia showed that the both scenarios of investing in either additional home care hours or more beneficiaries are cost-efficient. However, the optimal solution with the positive (and the highest) value of economic net present value criterion is to invest in human resources to boost the number of home care hours from 6 to 8 hours per week and increase the number of the beneficiaries to 33%. Conclusion This paper shows how the statistical and economic analysis results can be used to evaluate different scenarios and enable quality decision-making based on exact data in order to improve health and quality of life of the elderly and spend funds in a rational manner. PMID:26869778

Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

PubMed Central

Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

2016-01-01

Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for. PMID:27067389

Inferring population history with DIY ABC: a user-friendly approach to approximate Bayesian computation

PubMed Central

Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Santos, Filipe; Beaumont, Mark A.; Robert, Christian P.; Marin, Jean-Michel; Balding, David J.; Guillemaud, Thomas; Estoup, Arnaud

2008-01-01

Summary: Genetic data obtained on population samples convey information about their evolutionary history. Inference methods can extract part of this information but they require sophisticated statistical techniques that have been made available to the biologist community (through computer programs) only for simple and standard situations typically involving a small number of samples. We propose here a computer program (DIY ABC) for inference based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), in which scenarios can be customized by the user to fit many complex situations involving any number of populations and samples. Such scenarios involve any combination of population divergences, admixtures and population size changes. DIY ABC can be used to compare competing scenarios, estimate parameters for one or more scenarios and compute bias and precision measures for a given scenario and known values of parameters (the current version applies to unlinked microsatellite data). This article describes key methods used in the program and provides its main features. The analysis of one simulated and one real dataset, both with complex evolutionary scenarios, illustrates the main possibilities of DIY ABC. Availability: The software DIY ABC is freely available at http://www.montpellier.inra.fr/CBGP/diyabc. Contact: j.cornuet@imperial.ac.uk Supplementary information: Supplementary data are also available at http://www.montpellier.inra.fr/CBGP/diyabc PMID:18842597

40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis... scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify and analyze at least... release scenario under § 68.25; and (ii) That will reach an endpoint offsite, unless no such scenario...

Human Health Risk Assessment Calculator. In: SMARTe20ll, EPA/600/C-10/007

EPA Science Inventory

This calculator is aimed at supporting a human health risk assessment. Risk scenarios can be built by combining various health effects, exposure pathways, exposure parameters, and analytes. Scenario risk are calculated for each exposure pathway and analyte combination. The out...

Bias, precision and statistical power of analysis of covariance in the analysis of randomized trials with baseline imbalance: a simulation study.

PubMed

Egbewale, Bolaji E; Lewis, Martyn; Sim, Julius

2014-04-09

Analysis of variance (ANOVA), change-score analysis (CSA) and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) respond differently to baseline imbalance in randomized controlled trials. However, no empirical studies appear to have quantified the differential bias and precision of estimates derived from these methods of analysis, and their relative statistical power, in relation to combinations of levels of key trial characteristics. This simulation study therefore examined the relative bias, precision and statistical power of these three analyses using simulated trial data. 126 hypothetical trial scenarios were evaluated (126,000 datasets), each with continuous data simulated by using a combination of levels of: treatment effect; pretest-posttest correlation; direction and magnitude of baseline imbalance. The bias, precision and power of each method of analysis were calculated for each scenario. Compared to the unbiased estimates produced by ANCOVA, both ANOVA and CSA are subject to bias, in relation to pretest-posttest correlation and the direction of baseline imbalance. Additionally, ANOVA and CSA are less precise than ANCOVA, especially when pretest-posttest correlation ≥ 0.3. When groups are balanced at baseline, ANCOVA is at least as powerful as the other analyses. Apparently greater power of ANOVA and CSA at certain imbalances is achieved in respect of a biased treatment effect. Across a range of correlations between pre- and post-treatment scores and at varying levels and direction of baseline imbalance, ANCOVA remains the optimum statistical method for the analysis of continuous outcomes in RCTs, in terms of bias, precision and statistical power.

Bias, precision and statistical power of analysis of covariance in the analysis of randomized trials with baseline imbalance: a simulation study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Analysis of variance (ANOVA), change-score analysis (CSA) and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) respond differently to baseline imbalance in randomized controlled trials. However, no empirical studies appear to have quantified the differential bias and precision of estimates derived from these methods of analysis, and their relative statistical power, in relation to combinations of levels of key trial characteristics. This simulation study therefore examined the relative bias, precision and statistical power of these three analyses using simulated trial data. Methods 126 hypothetical trial scenarios were evaluated (126 000 datasets), each with continuous data simulated by using a combination of levels of: treatment effect; pretest-posttest correlation; direction and magnitude of baseline imbalance. The bias, precision and power of each method of analysis were calculated for each scenario. Results Compared to the unbiased estimates produced by ANCOVA, both ANOVA and CSA are subject to bias, in relation to pretest-posttest correlation and the direction of baseline imbalance. Additionally, ANOVA and CSA are less precise than ANCOVA, especially when pretest-posttest correlation ≥ 0.3. When groups are balanced at baseline, ANCOVA is at least as powerful as the other analyses. Apparently greater power of ANOVA and CSA at certain imbalances is achieved in respect of a biased treatment effect. Conclusions Across a range of correlations between pre- and post-treatment scores and at varying levels and direction of baseline imbalance, ANCOVA remains the optimum statistical method for the analysis of continuous outcomes in RCTs, in terms of bias, precision and statistical power. PMID:24712304

Evaluation of new alternatives in wastewater treatment plants based on dynamic modelling and life cycle assessment (DM-LCA).

PubMed

Bisinella de Faria, A B; Spérandio, M; Ahmadi, A; Tiruta-Barna, L

2015-11-01

With a view to quantifying the energy and environmental advantages of Urine Source-Separation (USS) combined with different treatment processes, five wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) scenarios were compared to a reference scenario using Dynamic Modelling (DM) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), and an integrated DM-LCA framework was thus developed. Dynamic simulations were carried out in BioWin(®) in order to obtain a realistic evaluation of the dynamic behaviour and performance of plants under perturbation. LCA calculations were performed within Umberto(®) using the Ecoinvent database. A Python™ interface was used to integrate and convert simulation data and to introduce them into Umberto(®) to achieve a complete LCA evaluation comprising foreground and background processes. Comparisons between steady-state and dynamic simulations revealed the importance of considering dynamic aspects such as nutrient and flow peaks. The results of the evaluation highlighted the potential of the USS scenario for nutrient recovery whereas the Enhanced Primary Clarification (EPC) scenario gave increased biogas production and also notably decreased aeration consumption, leading to a positive energy balance. Both USS and EPC scenarios also showed increased stability of plant operation, with smaller daily averages of total nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, USS and EPC results demonstrated that the coupled USS + EPC scenario and its combinations with agricultural spreading of N-rich effluent and nitritation/anaerobic deammonification could present an energy-positive balance with respectively 27% and 33% lower energy requirements and an increase in biogas production of 23%, compared to the reference scenario. The coupled scenarios also presented lesser environmental impacts (reduction of 31% and 39% in total endpoint impacts) along with effluent quality well within the specified limits. The marked environmental performance (reduction of global warming) when nitrogen is used in agriculture shows the importance of future research on sustainable solutions for nitrogen recovery. The contribution analysis of midpoint impacts also showed hotspots that it will be important to optimize further, such as plant infrastructure and direct N2O emissions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Micropollutants throughout an integrated urban drainage model: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mannina, Giorgio; Cosenza, Alida; Viviani, Gaspare

2017-11-01

The paper presents the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of an integrated urban drainage model which includes micropollutants. Specifically, a bespoke integrated model developed in previous studies has been modified in order to include the micropollutant assessment (namely, sulfamethoxazole - SMX). The model takes into account also the interactions between the three components of the system: sewer system (SS), wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and receiving water body (RWB). The analysis has been applied to an experimental catchment nearby Palermo (Italy): the Nocella catchment. Overall, five scenarios, each characterized by different uncertainty combinations of sub-systems (i.e., SS, WWTP and RWB), have been considered applying, for the sensitivity analysis, the Extended-FAST method in order to select the key factors affecting the RWB quality and to design a reliable/useful experimental campaign. Results have demonstrated that sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool for increasing operator confidence in the modelling results. The approach adopted here can be used for blocking some non-identifiable factors, thus wisely modifying the structure of the model and reducing the related uncertainty. The model factors related to the SS have been found to be the most relevant factors affecting the SMX modeling in the RWB when all model factors (scenario 1) or model factors of SS (scenarios 2 and 3) are varied. If the only factors related to the WWTP are changed (scenarios 4 and 5), the SMX concentration in the RWB is mainly influenced (till to 95% influence of the total variance for SSMX,max) by the aerobic sorption coefficient. A progressive uncertainty reduction from the upstream to downstream was found for the soluble fraction of SMX in the RWB.

[Estimating the impacts of future climate change on water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat in Henan Province, China].

PubMed

Ji, Xing-jie; Cheng, Lin; Fang, Wen-song

2015-09-01

Based on the analysis of water requirement and water deficit during development stage of winter wheat in recent 30 years (1981-2010) in Henan Province, the effective precipitation was calculated using the U.S. Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation method, the water requirement (ETC) was estimated by using FAO Penman-Monteith equation and crop coefficient method recommended by FAO, combined with the climate change scenario A2 (concentration on the economic envelopment) and B2 ( concentration on the sustainable development) of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) , the spatial and temporal characteristics of impacts of future climate change on effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat were estimated. The climatic impact factors of ETc and WD also were analyzed. The results showed that under A2 and B2 scenarios, there would be a significant increase in anomaly percentage of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period compared with the average value from 1981 to 2010. Effective precipitation increased the most in 2030s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 33.5% and 39.2%, respectively. Water requirement increased the most in 2010s under A2 and B2 scenarios by 22.5% and 17.5%, respectively, and showed a significant downward trend with time. Water deficit increased the most under A2 scenario in 2010s by 23.6% and under B2 scenario in 2020s by 13.0%. Partial correlation analysis indicated that solar radiation was the main cause for the variation of ETc and WD in future under A2 and B2 scenarios. The spatial distributions of effective precipitation, water requirement and water deficit of winter wheat during the whole growing period were spatially heterogeneous because of the difference in geographical and climatic environments. A possible tendency of water resource deficiency may exist in Henan Province in the future.

Modelling the response of shallow groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xue; Ye, Si-Yuan; Wei, Ai-Hua; Zhou, Peng-Peng; Wang, Li-Heng

2017-09-01

A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was implemented to quantify the temporal variation of shallow groundwater levels in response to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios over the next 40 years (2011-2050) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) Plain, China. Groundwater plays a key role in the water supply, but the Jing-Jin-Ji Plain is facing a water crisis. Groundwater levels have declined continuously over the last five decades (1961-2010) due to extensive pumping and climate change, which has resulted in decreased recharge. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) will provide an opportunity to restore the groundwater resources. The response of groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios has been quantified using a groundwater flow model. The impacts of climate change were based on the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset for future high (A2), medium (A1B), and low (B1) greenhouse gas scenarios; precipitation data from CMIP3 were applied in the model. The results show that climate change will slow the rate of decrease of the shallow groundwater levels under three climate-change scenarios over the next 40 years compared to the baseline scenario; however, the shallow groundwater levels will rise significantly (maximum of 6.71 m) when considering scenarios that combine climate change and restrictions on groundwater exploitation. Restrictions on groundwater exploitation for water resource management are imperative to control the decline of levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji area.

Analysis of radio wave propagation for ISM 2.4 GHz Wireless Sensor Networks in inhomogeneous vegetation environments.

PubMed

Azpilicueta, Leire; López-Iturri, Peio; Aguirre, Erik; Mateo, Ignacio; Astrain, José Javier; Villadangos, Jesús; Falcone, Francisco

2014-12-10

The use of wireless networks has experienced exponential growth due to the improvements in terms of battery life and low consumption of the devices. However, it is compulsory to conduct previous radio propagation analysis when deploying a wireless sensor network. These studies are necessary to perform an estimation of the range coverage, in order to optimize the distance between devices in an actual network deployment. In this work, the radio channel characterization for ISM 2.4 GHz Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) in an inhomogeneous vegetation environment has been analyzed. This analysis allows designing environment monitoring tools based on ZigBee and WiFi where WSN and smartphones cooperate, providing rich and customized monitoring information to users in a friendly manner. The impact of topology as well as morphology of the environment is assessed by means of an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching code, to emulate the realistic operation in the framework of the scenario. Experimental results gathered from a measurement campaign conducted by deploying a ZigBee Wireless Sensor Network, are analyzed and compared with simulations in this paper. The scenario where this network is intended to operate is a combination of buildings and diverse vegetation species. To gain insight in the effects of radio propagation, a simplified vegetation model has been developed, considering the material parameters and simplified geometry embedded in the simulation scenario. An initial location-based application has been implemented in a real scenario, to test the functionality within a context aware scenario. The use of deterministic tools can aid to know the impact of the topological influence in the deployment of the optimal Wireless Sensor Network in terms of capacity, coverage and energy consumption, making the use of these systems attractive for multiple applications in inhomogeneous vegetation environments.

Power plant allocation in East Kalimantan considering total cost and emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muslimin; Utomo, D. S.

2018-04-01

The fulfillment of electricity need in East Kalimantan is the responsibility of State Electricity Company/Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN). But PLN faces constraints in the lack of generating capacity it has. So the allocation of power loads in East Kalimantan has its own challenges. Additional power supplies from other parties are required. In this study, there are four scenarios tested to meet the electricity needs in East Kalimantan with the goal of minimizing costs and emissions. The first scenario is only by using PLN power plant. The second scenario is by combining PLN + Independent Power Producer (IPP) power plants. The third scenario is by using PLN + Rented power plants. The fourth scenario is by using PLN + Excess capacity generation. Numerical experiment using nonlinear programming is conducted with the help of the solver. The result shows that in the peak load condition, the best combination is scenario 2 (PLN + IPP). While at the lowest load condition, the cheapest scenario is PLN + IPP while the lowest emission is PLN + Rent.

Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

DOE PAGES

Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander; ...

2016-08-18

Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, markingmore » the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.« less

Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander

Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, markingmore » the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.« less

Validation of a model with climatic and flow scenario analysis: case of Lake Burrumbeet in southeastern Australia.

PubMed

Yihdego, Yohannes; Webb, John

2016-05-01

Forecast evaluation is an important topic that addresses the development of reliable hydrological probabilistic forecasts, mainly through the use of climate uncertainties. Often, validation has no place in hydrology for most of the times, despite the parameters of a model are uncertain. Similarly, the structure of the model can be incorrectly chosen. A calibrated and verified dynamic hydrologic water balance spreadsheet model has been used to assess the effect of climate variability on Lake Burrumbeet, southeastern Australia. The lake level has been verified to lake level, lake volume, lake surface area, surface outflow and lake salinity. The current study aims to increase lake level confidence model prediction through historical validation for the year 2008-2013, under different climatic scenario. Based on the observed climatic condition (2008-2013), it fairly matches with a hybridization of scenarios, being the period interval (2008-2013), corresponds to both dry and wet climatic condition. Besides to the hydrologic stresses uncertainty, uncertainty in the calibrated model is among the major drawbacks involved in making scenario simulations. In line with this, the uncertainty in the calibrated model was tested using sensitivity analysis and showed that errors in the model can largely be attributed to erroneous estimates of evaporation and rainfall, and surface inflow to a lesser. The study demonstrates that several climatic scenarios should be analysed, with a combination of extreme climate, stream flow and climate change instead of one assumed climatic sequence, to improve climate variability prediction in the future. Performing such scenario analysis is a valid exercise to comprehend the uncertainty with the model structure and hydrology, in a meaningful way, without missing those, even considered as less probable, ultimately turned to be crucial for decision making and will definitely increase the confidence of model prediction for management of the water resources.

Ordered weighted averaging with fuzzy quantifiers: GIS-based multicriteria evaluation for land-use suitability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malczewski, Jacek

2006-12-01

The objective of this paper is to incorporate the concept of fuzzy (linguistic) quantifiers into the GIS-based land suitability analysis via ordered weighted averaging (OWA). OWA is a multicriteria evaluation procedure (or combination operator). The nature of the OWA procedure depends on some parameters, which can be specified by means of fuzzy (linguistic) quantifiers. By changing the parameters, OWA can generate a wide range of decision strategies or scenarios. The quantifier-guided OWA procedure is illustrated using land-use suitability analysis in a region of Mexico.

Impacts of climate change on cropping patterns in a tropical, sub-humid watershed

PubMed Central

Zwart, Sander J.; Hein, Lars

2018-01-01

In recent decades, there have been substantial increases in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a result of higher yields, increased cropping intensity, expansion of irrigated cropping systems, and rainfed cropland expansion. Yet, to date much of the research focus of the impact of climate change on crop production in the coming decades has been on crop yield responses. In this study, we analyse the impact of climate change on the potential for increasing rainfed cropping intensity through sequential cropping and irrigation expansion in central Benin. Our approach combines hydrological modelling and scenario analysis involving two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), two water-use scenarios for the watershed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and environmental water requirements leading to sustained streamflow. Our analyses show that in Benin, warmer temperatures will severely limit crop production increases achieved through the expansion of sequential cropping. Depending on the climate change scenario, between 50% and 95% of cultivated areas that can currently support sequential cropping or will need to revert to single cropping. The results also show that the irrigation potential of the watershed will be at least halved by mid-century in all scenario combinations. Given the urgent need to increase crop production to meet the demands of a growing population in SSA, our study outlines challenges and the need for planned development that need to be overcome to improve food security in the coming decades. PMID:29513753

The Southern Forest Futures Project: summary report

Treesearch

David N. Wear; John G. Greis

2012-01-01

The Southern Forest Futures Project provides a science-based “futuring” analysis of the forests of the 13 States of the Southeastern United States. With findings organized in a set of scenarios and using a combination of computer models and science synthesis, the authors of the Southern Forest Futures Project examine a variety of possible futures that could shape...

Using Image Modelling to Teach Newton's Laws with the Ollie Trick

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dias, Marco Adriano; Carvalho, Paulo Simeão; Vianna, Deise Miranda

2016-01-01

Image modelling is a video-based teaching tool that is a combination of strobe images and video analysis. This tool can enable a qualitative and a quantitative approach to the teaching of physics, in a much more engaging and appealling way than the traditional expositive practice. In a specific scenario shown in this paper, the Ollie trick, we…

Implementation of Lean System on Erbium Doped Fibre Amplifier Manufacturing Process to Reduce Production Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maneechote, T.; Luangpaiboon, P.

2010-10-01

A manufacturing process of erbium doped fibre amplifiers is complicated. It needs to meet the customers' requirements under a present economic status that products need to be shipped to customers as soon as possible after purchasing orders. This research aims to study and improve processes and production lines of erbium doped fibre amplifiers using lean manufacturing systems via an application of computer simulation. Three scenarios of lean tooled box systems are selected via the expert system. Firstly, the production schedule based on shipment date is combined with a first in first out control system. The second scenario focuses on a designed flow process plant layout. Finally, the previous flow process plant layout combines with production schedule based on shipment date including the first in first out control systems. The computer simulation with the limited data via an expected value is used to observe the performance of all scenarios. The most preferable resulted lean tooled box systems from a computer simulation are selected to implement in the real process of a production of erbium doped fibre amplifiers. A comparison is carried out to determine the actual performance measures via an analysis of variance of the response or the production time per unit achieved in each scenario. The goodness of an adequacy of the linear statistical model via experimental errors or residuals is also performed to check the normality, constant variance and independence of the residuals. The results show that a hybrid scenario of lean manufacturing system with the first in first out control and flow process plant lay out statistically leads to better performance in terms of the mean and variance of production times.

Vulnerability assessment of the impact of sea-level rise and flooding on the Moroccan coast: The case of the Mediterranean eastern zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snoussi, Maria; Ouchani, Tachfine; Niazi, Saïda

2008-04-01

The eastern part of the Mediterranean coast of Morocco is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise, due to its low topography and its high ecological and touristic value. Assessment of the potential land loss by inundation has been based on empirical approaches using a minimum inundation level of 2 m and a maximum inundation level of 7 m, where scenarios for future sea-level rise range from 200 to 860 mm, with a 'best estimate' of 490 mm. The socio-economic impacts have been based on two possible alternative futures: (1) a 'worst-case' scenario, obtained by combining the 'economic development first' scenario with the maximum inundation level; and (2) a 'best-case' scenario, by combining the 'sustainability first' scenario with the minimum inundation level. Inundation analysis, based on Geographical Information Systems and a modelling approach to erosion, has identified both locations and the socioeconomic sectors that are most at risk to accelerated sea-level rise. Results indicate that 24% and 59% of the area will be lost by flooding at minimum and maximum inundation levels, respectively. The most severely impacted sectors are expected to be the residential and recreational areas, agricultural land, and the natural ecosystem. Shoreline erosion will affect 50% and 70% of the total area in 2050 and 2100, respectively. Potential strategies to ameliorate the impact of seawater inundation include: wetland preservation; beach nourishment at tourist resorts; and the afforestation of dunes. As this coast is planned to become one of the most developed tourist resorts in Morocco by 2010, measures such as building regulation, urban growth planning and development of an Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan, are recommended for the region.

Global sensitivity analysis for identifying important parameters of nitrogen nitrification and denitrification under model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhuowei; Shi, Liangsheng; Ye, Ming; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong

2018-06-01

Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. By using a new variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters for nitrogen reactive transport with simultaneous consideration of these three uncertainties. A combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture creates a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models describing the effect of soil temperature and moisture content are used to evaluate the reduction functions used for calculating actual reaction rates. The results show that for nitrogen reactive transport problem, parameter importance varies substantially among different models and scenarios. Denitrification and nitrification process is sensitive to soil moisture content status rather than to the moisture function parameter. Nitrification process becomes more important at low moisture content and low temperature. However, the changing importance of nitrification activity with respect to temperature change highly relies on the selected model. Model-averaging is suggested to assess the nitrification (or denitrification) contribution by reducing the possible model error. Despite the introduction of biochemical heterogeneity or not, fairly consistent parameter importance rank is obtained in this study: optimal denitrification rate (Kden) is the most important parameter; reference temperature (Tr) is more important than temperature coefficient (Q10); empirical constant in moisture response function (m) is the least important one. Vertical distribution of soil moisture but not temperature plays predominant role controlling nitrogen reaction. This study provides insight into the nitrogen reactive transport modeling and demonstrates an effective strategy of selecting the important parameters when future temperature and soil moisture carry uncertainties or when modelers face with multiple ways of establishing nitrogen models.

Combined and synergistic effects of climate change and urbanization on water quality in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama.

PubMed

Wang, Ruoyu; Kalin, Latif

2018-02-01

This study investigated potential changes in flow, total suspended solid (TSS) and nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorous) loadings under future climate change, land use/cover (LULC) change and combined change scenarios in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama, USA. Four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES) of greenhouse gas were used to assess the future climate change (2016-2040). Three projected LULC maps (2030) were employed to reflect different extents of urbanization in future. The individual, combined and synergistic impacts of LULC and climate change on water quantity/quality were analyzed by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Under the "climate change only" scenario, monthly distribution and projected variation of TSS are expected to follow a pattern similar to streamflow. Nutrients are influenced both by flow and management practices. The variation of Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorous (TP) generally follow the flow trend as well. No evident difference in the N:P ratio was projected. Under the "LULC change only" scenario, TN was projected to decrease, mainly due to the shrinkage of croplands. TP will increase in fall and winter. The N:P ratio shows a strong decreasing potential. Under the "combined change" scenario, LULC and climate change effect were considered simultaneously. Results indicate that if future loadings are expected to increase/decrease under any individual scenario, then the combined change will intensify that trend. Conversely, if their effects are in opposite directions, an offsetting effect occurs. Science-based management practices are needed to reduce nutrient loadings to the Bay. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Cloud Service Provider Methods for Managing Insider Threats: Analysis Phase 2, Expanded Analysis and Recommendations

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

and software as a service ( SaaS )) for staff’s abnormal behavior that may indicate an insider incident. As mentioned above, combining SIEM data...Mellon Software Engineering Institute, contacted commercial and government cloud service providers (CSPs) to better understand the administrative and...availability services . We have observed a number of scenarios in which a customer leaves a CSP’s IaaS, PaaS, or SaaS , but its data remains online for some

Past Performance analysis of HPOTP bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhat, B. N.; Dolan, F. J.

1982-01-01

The past performance analysis conducted on three High Pressure Oxygen Turbopump (HPOTP) bearings from the Space Shuttle Main Engine is presented. Metallurgical analysis of failed bearing balls and races, and wear track and crack configuration analyses were carried out. In addition, one bearing was tested in laboratory at very high axial loads. The results showed that the cracks were surface initiated and propagated into subsurface locations at relatively small angles. Subsurface cracks were much more extensive than was appeared on the surface. The location of major cracks in the races corresponded to high radial loads rather than high axial loads. There was evidence to suggest that the inner races were heated to elevated temperatures. A failure scenario was developed based on the above findings. According to this scenario the HPOTP bearings are heated by a combination of high loads and high coefficient of friction (poor lubrication). Different methods of extending the HPOTP bearing life are also discussed. These include reduction of axial loads, improvements in bearing design, lubrication and cooling, and use of improved bearing materials.

Global sensitivity analysis of the BSM2 dynamic influent disturbance scenario generator.

PubMed

Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Gernaey, Krist V; Jeppsson, Ulf

2012-01-01

This paper presents the results of a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a phenomenological model that generates dynamic wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent disturbance scenarios. This influent model is part of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) family and creates realistic dry/wet weather files describing diurnal, weekend and seasonal variations through the combination of different generic model blocks, i.e. households, industry, rainfall and infiltration. The GSA is carried out by combining Monte Carlo simulations and standardized regression coefficients (SRC). Cluster analysis is then applied, classifying the influence of the model parameters into strong, medium and weak. The results show that the method is able to decompose the variance of the model predictions (R(2)> 0.9) satisfactorily, thus identifying the model parameters with strongest impact on several flow rate descriptors calculated at different time resolutions. Catchment size (PE) and the production of wastewater per person equivalent (QperPE) are two parameters that strongly influence the yearly average dry weather flow rate and its variability. Wet weather conditions are mainly affected by three parameters: (1) the probability of occurrence of a rain event (Llrain); (2) the catchment size, incorporated in the model as a parameter representing the conversion from mm rain · day(-1) to m(3) · day(-1) (Qpermm); and, (3) the quantity of rain falling on permeable areas (aH). The case study also shows that in both dry and wet weather conditions the SRC ranking changes when the time scale of the analysis is modified, thus demonstrating the potential to identify the effect of the model parameters on the fast/medium/slow dynamics of the flow rate. The paper ends with a discussion on the interpretation of GSA results and of the advantages of using synthetic dynamic flow rate data for WWTP influent scenario generation. This section also includes general suggestions on how to use the proposed methodology to any influent generator to adapt the created time series to a modeller's demands.

Capacity Model and Constraints Analysis for Integrated Remote Wireless Sensor and Satellite Network in Emergency Scenarios

PubMed Central

Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Gengxin; Dong, Feihong; Xie, Zhidong; Bian, Dongming

2015-01-01

This article investigates the capacity problem of an integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network (IWSSN) in emergency scenarios. We formulate a general model to evaluate the remote sensor and satellite network capacity. Compared to most existing works for ground networks, the proposed model is time varying and space oriented. To capture the characteristics of a practical network, we sift through major capacity-impacting constraints and analyze the influence of these constraints. Specifically, we combine the geometric satellite orbit model and satellite tool kit (STK) engineering software to quantify the trends of the capacity constraints. Our objective in analyzing these trends is to provide insights and design guidelines for optimizing the integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network schedules. Simulation results validate the theoretical analysis of capacity trends and show the optimization opportunities of the IWSSN. PMID:26593919

Analysis and performance assessment of a fragment retransmission scheme for energy efficient IEEE 802.11 WLANs.

PubMed

Mafole, Prosper; Aritsugi, Masayoshi

2016-01-01

Backoff-free fragment retransmission (BFFR) scheme enhances the performance of legacy MAC layer fragmentation by eliminating contention overhead. The eliminated overhead is the result of backoff executed before a retransmission attempt is made when fragment transmission failure occurs within a fragment burst. This paper provides a mathematical analysis of BFFR energy efficiency and further assesses, by means of simulations, the energy efficiency, throughput and delay obtained when BFFR is used. The validity of the new scheme is evaluated in different scenarios namely, constant bit rate traffic, realistic bursty internet traffic, node mobility, rigid and elastic flows and their combinations at different traffic loads. We also evaluate and discuss the impact of BFFR on MAC fairness when the number of nodes is varied from 4 to 10. It is shown that BFFR has advantages over legacy MAC fragmentation scheme in all the scenarios.

Capacity Model and Constraints Analysis for Integrated Remote Wireless Sensor and Satellite Network in Emergency Scenarios.

PubMed

Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Gengxin; Dong, Feihong; Xie, Zhidong; Bian, Dongming

2015-11-17

This article investigates the capacity problem of an integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network (IWSSN) in emergency scenarios. We formulate a general model to evaluate the remote sensor and satellite network capacity. Compared to most existing works for ground networks, the proposed model is time varying and space oriented. To capture the characteristics of a practical network, we sift through major capacity-impacting constraints and analyze the influence of these constraints. Specifically, we combine the geometric satellite orbit model and satellite tool kit (STK) engineering software to quantify the trends of the capacity constraints. Our objective in analyzing these trends is to provide insights and design guidelines for optimizing the integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network schedules. Simulation results validate the theoretical analysis of capacity trends and show the optimization opportunities of the IWSSN.

A regional scale modeling framework combining biogeochemical model with life cycle and economic analysis for integrated assessment of cropping systems.

PubMed

Tabatabaie, Seyed Mohammad Hossein; Bolte, John P; Murthy, Ganti S

2018-06-01

The goal of this study was to integrate a crop model, DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition), with life cycle assessment (LCA) and economic analysis models using a GIS-based integrated platform, ENVISION. The integrated model enables LCA practitioners to conduct integrated economic analysis and LCA on a regional scale while capturing the variability of soil emissions due to variation in regional factors during production of crops and biofuel feedstocks. In order to evaluate the integrated model, the corn-soybean cropping system in Eagle Creek Watershed, Indiana was studied and the integrated model was used to first model the soil emissions and then conduct the LCA as well as economic analysis. The results showed that the variation in soil emissions due to variation in weather is high causing some locations to be carbon sink in some years and source of CO 2 in other years. In order to test the model under different scenarios, two tillage scenarios were defined: 1) conventional tillage (CT) and 2) no tillage (NT) and analyzed with the model. The overall GHG emissions for the corn-soybean cropping system was simulated and results showed that the NT scenario resulted in lower soil GHG emissions compared to CT scenario. Moreover, global warming potential (GWP) of corn ethanol from well to pump varied between 57 and 92gCO 2 -eq./MJ while GWP under the NT system was lower than that of the CT system. The cost break-even point was calculated as $3612.5/ha in a two year corn-soybean cropping system and the results showed that under low and medium prices for corn and soybean most of the farms did not meet the break-even point. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tools and Techniques for Basin-Scale Climate Change Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagona, E.; Rajagopalan, B.; Oakley, W.; Wilson, N.; Weinstein, P.; Verdin, A.; Jerla, C.; Prairie, J. R.

2012-12-01

The Department of Interior's WaterSMART Program seeks to secure and stretch water supplies to benefit future generations and identify adaptive measures to address climate change. Under WaterSMART, Basin Studies are comprehensive water studies to explore options for meeting projected imbalances in water supply and demand in specific basins. Such studies could be most beneficial with application of recent scientific advances in climate projections, stochastic simulation, operational modeling and robust decision-making, as well as computational techniques to organize and analyze many alternatives. A new integrated set of tools and techniques to facilitate these studies includes the following components: Future supply scenarios are produced by the Hydrology Simulator, which uses non-parametric K-nearest neighbor resampling techniques to generate ensembles of hydrologic traces based on historical data, optionally conditioned on long paleo reconstructed data using various Markov Chain techniuqes. Resampling can also be conditioned on climate change projections from e.g., downscaled GCM projections to capture increased variability; spatial and temporal disaggregation is also provided. The simulations produced are ensembles of hydrologic inputs to the RiverWare operations/infrastucture decision modeling software. Alternative demand scenarios can be produced with the Demand Input Tool (DIT), an Excel-based tool that allows modifying future demands by groups such as states; sectors, e.g., agriculture, municipal, energy; and hydrologic basins. The demands can be scaled at future dates or changes ramped over specified time periods. Resulting data is imported directly into the decision model. Different model files can represent infrastructure alternatives and different Policy Sets represent alternative operating policies, including options for noticing when conditions point to unacceptable vulnerabilities, which trigger dynamically executing changes in operations or other options. The over-arching Study Manager provides a graphical tool to create combinations of future supply scenarios, demand scenarios, infrastructure and operating policy alternatives; each scenario is executed as an ensemble of RiverWare runs, driven by the hydrologic supply. The Study Manager sets up and manages multiple executions on multi-core hardware. The sizeable are typically direct model outputs, or post-processed indicators of performance based on model outputs. Post processing statistical analysis of the outputs are possible using the Graphical Policy Analysis Tool or other statistical packages. Several Basin Studies undertaken have used RiverWare to evaluate future scenarios. The Colorado River Basin Study, the most complex and extensive to date, has taken advantage of these tools and techniques to generate supply scenarios, produce alternative demand scenarios and to set up and execute the many combinations of supplies, demands, policies, and infrastructure alternatives. The tools and techniques will be described with example applications.

Integrating Climate Change Scenarios and Co-developed Policy Scenarios to Inform Coastal Adaptation: Results from a Tillamook County, Oregon Knowledge to Action Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipiec, E.; Ruggiero, P.; Serafin, K.; Bolte, J.; Mills, A.; Corcoran, P.; Stevenson, J.; Lach, D.

2014-12-01

Local decision-makers often lack both the information and tools to reduce their community's overall vulnerability to current and future climate change impacts. Managers are restricted in their actions by the scale of the problem, inherent scientific uncertainty, limits of information exchange, and the global nature of available data, rendering place-based strategies difficult to generate. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal communities are already experiencing chronic erosion and flooding, hazards only to be exacerbated by sea level rise and changing patterns of storminess associated with climate change. To address these issues, a knowledge to action network (KTAN) consisting of local Tillamook County stakeholders and Oregon State University researchers, was formed to project future flooding and erosion impacts and determine possible adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability. Via an iterative scenario planning process, the KTAN has developed four distinct adaptation policy scenarios, including 'Status Quo', 'Hold The Line', 'ReAlign', and 'Laissez-Faire'. These policy scenarios are being integrated with a range of climate change scenarios within the modeling framework Envision, a multi-agent GIS-based tool, which allows for the combination of physical processes data, probabilistic climate change information, coastal flood and erosion models, and stakeholder driven adaptation strategies into distinct plausible future scenarios. Because exact physical and social responses to climate change are impossible to ascertain, information about the differences between possible future scenarios can provide valuable information to decision-makers and the community at large. For example, the fewest projected coastal flood and erosion impacts to buildings occur under the 'ReAlign' policy scenario (i.e., adaptation strategies that move dwellings away from the coast) under both low and high climate change scenarios, especially in comparison to the 'Status Quo' or 'Hold The Line' scenarios. Statistical analysis of the scenario-based variations in impacts to private and public resources can help guide future adaptation policy implementation and support Oregon's coastal communities for years to come.

Using the scenario method in the context of health and health care--a scoping review.

PubMed

Vollmar, Horst Christian; Ostermann, Thomas; Redaèlli, Marcus

2015-10-16

The scenario technique is a method for future research and for strategic planning. Today, it includes both qualitative and quantitative elements. The aims of this scoping review are to give an overview of the application of the scenario method in the fields of health care and to make suggestions for better reporting in future scenario projects. Between January 2013 and October 2013 we conducted a systematic search in the databases Medline, Embase, PsycInfo, Eric, The Cochrane Library, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cinahl since inception for the term 'scenario(s)' in combination with other terms, e.g. method, model, and technique. Our search was not restricted by date or language. In addition, we screened the reference lists of the included articles. A total of 576 bibliographical records were screened. After removing duplicates and three rounds of screening, 41 articles covering 38 different scenario projects were included for the final analysis. Nine of the included articles addressed disease related issues, led by mental health and dementia (n = 4), and followed by cancer (n = 3). Five scenario projects focused on public health issues at an organizational level and five focused on the labor market for different health care professionals. In addition, four projects dealt with health care 'in general', four with the field of biotechnology and personalized medicine, and additional four with other technology developments. Some of the scenario projects suffered from poor reporting of methodological aspects. Despite its potential, use of the scenario method seems to be published rarely in comparison to other methods such as the Delphi-technique, at least in the field of health care. This might be due to the complexity of the methodological approach. Individual project methods and activities vary widely and are poorly reported. Improved criteria are required for reporting of scenario project methods. With improved standards and greater transparency, the scenario method will be a good tool for scientific health care planning and strategic decision-making in public health.

Environmental implications of carbon limits on market ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Combined heat and power (CHP) is promoted as an economical, energy-efficient option for combating climate change. To fully examine the viability of CHP as a clean-technology solution, its market potential and impacts need to be analyzed as part of scenarios of the future energy system, particularly those with policies limiting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper develops and analyzes scenarios using a bottom-up, technology rich optimization model of the U.S. energy system. Two distinct carbon reduction goals were set up for analysis. In Target 1, carbon emission reduction goals were only included for the electric sector. In Target 2, carbon emission reduction goals were set across the entire energy system with the target patterned after the U.S.’s commitment to reducing GHG emissions as part of the Paris Agreement reached at the COP21 summit. From a system-wide carbon reduction standpoint, Target 2 is significantly more stringent. In addition, these scenarios examine the implications of various CHP capacity expansion and contraction assumptions and energy prices. The largest CHP capacity expansion are observed in scenarios that included Target 1, but investments were scaled back in scenarios that incorporated Target 2. The latter scenario spurred rapid development of zero-emissions technologies within the electric sector, and purchased electricity increased dramatically in many end-use sectors. The results suggest that CHP may play a role in a carbon-c

TRU Waste Management Program cost/schedule optimization analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Detamore, J.A.; Raudenbush, M.H.; Wolaver, R.W.

1985-10-01

The cost/schedule optimization task is a necessary function to insure that program goals and plans are optimized from a cost and schedule aspect. Results of this study will offer DOE information with which it can establish, within institutional constraints, the most efficient program for the long-term management and disposal of contact handled transuranic waste (CH-TRU). To this end, a comprehensive review of program cost/schedule tradeoffs has been made, to identify any major cost saving opportunities that may be realized by modification of current program plans. It was decided that all promising scenarios would be explored, and institutional limitations to implementationmore » would be described. Since a virtually limitless number of possible scenarios can be envisioned, it was necessary to distill these possibilities into a manageable number of alternatives. The resultant scenarios were described in the cost/schedule strategy and work plan document. Each scenario was compared with the base case: waste processing at the originating site; transport of CH-TRU wastes in TRUPACT; shipment of drums in 6-Packs; 25 year stored waste workoff; WIPP operational 10/88, with all sites shipping to WIPP beginning 10/88; and no processing at WIPP. Major savings were identified in two alternate scenarios: centralize waste processing at INEL and eliminate rail shipment of TRUPACT. No attempt was made to calculate savings due to combination of scenarios. 1 ref., 5 figs., 1 tab. (MHB)« less

Effect of pesticide fate parameters and their uncertainty on the selection of 'worst-case' scenarios of pesticide leaching to groundwater.

PubMed

Vanderborght, Jan; Tiktak, Aaldrik; Boesten, Jos J T I; Vereecken, Harry

2011-03-01

For the registration of pesticides in the European Union, model simulations for worst-case scenarios are used to demonstrate that leaching concentrations to groundwater do not exceed a critical threshold. A worst-case scenario is a combination of soil and climate properties for which predicted leaching concentrations are higher than a certain percentile of the spatial concentration distribution within a region. The derivation of scenarios is complicated by uncertainty about soil and pesticide fate parameters. As the ranking of climate and soil property combinations according to predicted leaching concentrations is different for different pesticides, the worst-case scenario for one pesticide may misrepresent the worst case for another pesticide, which leads to 'scenario uncertainty'. Pesticide fate parameter uncertainty led to higher concentrations in the higher percentiles of spatial concentration distributions, especially for distributions in smaller and more homogeneous regions. The effect of pesticide fate parameter uncertainty on the spatial concentration distribution was small when compared with the uncertainty of local concentration predictions and with the scenario uncertainty. Uncertainty in pesticide fate parameters and scenario uncertainty can be accounted for using higher percentiles of spatial concentration distributions and considering a range of pesticides for the scenario selection. Copyright © 2010 Society of Chemical Industry.

Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model

PubMed Central

Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

2016-01-01

Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML. PMID:27023575

Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model.

PubMed

Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

2016-03-24

Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML.

The admixture maximum likelihood test to test for association between rare variants and disease phenotypes.

PubMed

Tyrer, Jonathan P; Guo, Qi; Easton, Douglas F; Pharoah, Paul D P

2013-06-06

The development of genotyping arrays containing hundreds of thousands of rare variants across the genome and advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies have made feasible empirical genetic association studies to search for rare disease susceptibility alleles. As single variant testing is underpowered to detect associations, the development of statistical methods to combine analysis across variants - so-called "burden tests" - is an area of active research interest. We previously developed a method, the admixture maximum likelihood test, to test multiple, common variants for association with a trait of interest. We have extended this method, called the rare admixture maximum likelihood test (RAML), for the analysis of rare variants. In this paper we compare the performance of RAML with six other burden tests designed to test for association of rare variants. We used simulation testing over a range of scenarios to test the power of RAML compared to the other rare variant association testing methods. These scenarios modelled differences in effect variability, the average direction of effect and the proportion of associated variants. We evaluated the power for all the different scenarios. RAML tended to have the greatest power for most scenarios where the proportion of associated variants was small, whereas SKAT-O performed a little better for the scenarios with a higher proportion of associated variants. The RAML method makes no assumptions about the proportion of variants that are associated with the phenotype of interest or the magnitude and direction of their effect. The method is flexible and can be applied to both dichotomous and quantitative traits and allows for the inclusion of covariates in the underlying regression model. The RAML method performed well compared to the other methods over a wide range of scenarios. Generally power was moderate in most of the scenarios, underlying the need for large sample sizes in any form of association testing.

Including the temporal change in PM{sub 2.5} concentration in the assessment of human health impact: Illustration with renewable energy scenarios to 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gschwind, Benoit, E-mail: benoit.gschwind@mines-paristech.fr; Lefevre, Mireille, E-mail: mireille.lefevre@mines-paristech.fr; Blanc, Isabelle, E-mail: isabelle.blanc@mines-paristech.fr

This article proposes a new method to assess the health impact of populations exposed to fine particles (PM{sub 2.5}) during their whole lifetime, which is suitable for comparative analysis of energy scenarios. The method takes into account the variation of particle concentrations over time as well as the evolution of population cohorts. Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050: the Baseline (BL) and the Low Carbon, Maximum Renewable Power (LC-MRP). These pathways were combined with three sets of assumptions about emission control measures: Current Legislation (CLE), Fixed Emission Factors (FEFs), and themore » Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFRs). Analysis was carried out for 45 European countries. Average PM{sub 2.5} concentration over Europe in the LC-MRP/CLE scenario is reduced by 58% compared with the BL/FEF case. Health impacts (expressed in days of loss of life expectancy) decrease by 21%. For the LC-MRP/MTFR scenario the average PM{sub 2.5} concentration is reduced by 85% and the health impact by 34%. The methodology was developed within the framework of the EU's FP7 EnerGEO project and was implemented in the Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA). The Platform enables performing health impact assessments for various energy scenarios. - Highlights: • A new method to assess health impact of PM{sub 2.5} for energy scenarios is proposed. • An algorithm to compute Loss of Life Expectancy attributable to exposure to PM{sub 2.5} is depicted. • Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050. • Integrating the temporal evolution of PM{sub 2.5} is of great interest for assessing the potential impacts of energy scenarios.« less

Skills for a Low-Carbon Europe: The Role of VET in a Sustainable Energy Scenario. Synthesis Report. Research Paper No 34

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ranieri, Antonio, Ed.

2013-01-01

This report provides an analysis of the labour market impacts of EU policy interventions designed to support the transition to a job-rich, low-carbon economy. The approach taken is innovative as it combines quantitative (econometric modelling) and qualitative (case study) methods to investigate the expected impact of sustainable energy policies on…

Information Extraction for System-Software Safety Analysis: Calendar Year 2008 Year-End Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.

2009-01-01

This annual report describes work to integrate a set of tools to support early model-based analysis of failures and hazards due to system-software interactions. The tools perform and assist analysts in the following tasks: 1) extract model parts from text for architecture and safety/hazard models; 2) combine the parts with library information to develop the models for visualization and analysis; 3) perform graph analysis and simulation to identify and evaluate possible paths from hazard sources to vulnerable entities and functions, in nominal and anomalous system-software configurations and scenarios; and 4) identify resulting candidate scenarios for software integration testing. There has been significant technical progress in model extraction from Orion program text sources, architecture model derivation (components and connections) and documentation of extraction sources. Models have been derived from Internal Interface Requirements Documents (IIRDs) and FMEA documents. Linguistic text processing is used to extract model parts and relationships, and the Aerospace Ontology also aids automated model development from the extracted information. Visualizations of these models assist analysts in requirements overview and in checking consistency and completeness.

Plant growth and mineral recycle trade-offs in different scenarios for a CELSS. [Closed Ecological Life Support System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ballou, E. V.; Wydeven, T.; Spitze, L. A.

1982-01-01

Data for hydroponic plant growth in a manned system test is combined with nutritional recommendations to suport trade-off calculations for closed and partially closed life support system scenarios. Published data are used as guidelines for the masses of mineral nutrients needed for higher plant production. The results of calculations based on various scenarios are presented for various combinations of plant growth chamber utilization and fraction of mineral recycle. Estimates are made of the masses of material needed to meet human nutritional requirements in the various scenarios. It appears that food production from a plant growth chamber with mineral recycle is favorable to reduction of the total launch weight in missions exceeding 3 years.

Using Formative Scenario Analysis approach for landslide risk analysis in a relatively scarce data environment: preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zumpano, Veronica; Balteanu, Dan; Mazzorana, Bruno; Micu, Mihai

2014-05-01

It is increasingly important to provide to stakeholders tools that will enable them to better understand what is the state of the environment in which they live and manage and to help them to make decisions that aim to minimize the consequences of hydro-meteorological hazards. Very often, however, quantitative studies, especially for large areas, are difficult to perform. This is due to the fact that unfortunately isn't often possible to have the numerous data required to perform the analysis. In addition it has been proven that in scenario analysis, often deterministic approaches are not able to detect some features of the system revealing unexpected behaviors, and resulting in underestimation or omission of some impact factors. Here are presented some preliminary results obtained applying Formative Scenario Analysis that can be considered a possible solution for landslide risk analysis in cases where the data needed even if existent are not available. This method is an expert based approach that integrates intuitions and qualitative evaluations of impact factors with the quantitative analysis of relations between these factors: a group of experts with different but pertinent expertise, determine (by a rating procedure) quantitative relations between these factors, then through mathematical operations the scenarios describing a certain state of the system are obtained. The approach is applied to Buzau County (Romania), an area belonging to the Curvature Romanian Carpathians and Subcarpathians, a region strongly affected by environmental hazards. The region has been previously involved in numerous episodes of severe hydro-meteorological events that caused considerable damages (1975, 2005, 2006). In this application we are referring only to one type of landslides that can be described as shallow and medium-seated with a (mainly) translational movement that can go from slide to flow. The material involved can be either soil, debris or a mixture of both, in Romanian literature these typical movements has been described as alunecare curgatoare. The Formative Scenario Analysis approach will be applied for each component of risk (H,V,and A) and then the acquired states will be combined in order to obtain for obtaining a series of alternatives scenarios for risk. The approach is structured in two main sections corresponding to a level of influence of conditioning factors and a response. In this latter are obtained the results of the formative scenario approach trained with the conditioning factors of the first level. These factors are divided in two subsets representing 2 levels of influences, k=1 comprises the global factors while in k=2 one finds local factors. In order to include uncertainty estimation within the analysis the method of knowledge representation type-1 fuzzy sets is introduced and hence decisions made by experts on certain events are expressed in terms of triangular fuzzy numbers.

DESTINY+ Trajectory Design to (3200) Phaethon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarli, Bruno Victorino; Horikawa, Makoto; Yam, Chit Hong; Kawakatsu, Yasuhiro; Yamamoto, Takayuki

2018-03-01

This work explores the target selection and trajectory design of the mission candidate for ISAS/JAXA's small science satellite series, DESTINY PLUS or DESTINY+. This mission combines unique aspects of the latest satellite technology and exploration of transition bodies to fill a technical and scientific gap in the Japanese space science program. The spacecraft is targeted to study the comet-asteroid transition body (3200) Phaethon through a combination of low-thrust propulsion and Earth Gravity Assist. The trajectory design concept is presented in details together with the launch window and flyby date analysis. Alternative targets for a possible mission extension scenario are also explored.

Building a Unique Scenario to Support Cross-Mission Science with SPICE: The Siding-Spring comet encounter with Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, M.; Witasse, O.; Sánchez-Cano, B.

2017-09-01

On October 2014, Mars experienced a close encounter with Comet Siding Spring. This contribution outlines a SPICE scenario built to assist studies combining MEX, MAVEN, Mars Odyssey, MSL, and Siding-Spring data focused on a Cosmographia 3D scenario.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of guidelines for antihypertensive care in Finland

PubMed Central

Booth, Neill; Jula, Antti; Aronen, Pasi; Kaila, Minna; Klaukka, Timo; Kukkonen-Harjula, Katriina; Reunanen, Antti; Rissanen, Pekka; Sintonen, Harri; Mäkelä, Marjukka

2007-01-01

Background Hypertension is one of the major causes of disease burden affecting the Finnish population. Over the last decade, evidence-based care has emerged to complement other approaches to antihypertensive care, often without health economic assessment of its costs and effects. This study looks at the extent to which changes proposed by the 2002 Finnish evidence-based Current Care Guidelines concerning the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of hypertension (the ACCG scenario) can be considered cost-effective when compared to modelled prior clinical practice (the PCP scenario). Methods A decision analytic model compares the ACCG and PCP scenarios using information synthesised from a set of national registers covering prescription drug reimbursements, morbidity, and mortality with data from two national surveys concerning health and functional capacity. Statistical methods are used to estimate model parameters from Finnish data. We model the potential impact of the different treatment strategies under the ACCG and PCP scenarios, such as lifestyle counselling and drug therapy, for subgroups stratified by age, gender, and blood pressure. The model provides estimates of the differences in major health-related outcomes in the form of life-years and costs as calculated from a 'public health care system' perspective. Cost-effectiveness analysis results are presented for subgroups and for the target population as a whole. Results The impact of the use of the ACCG scenario in subgroups (aged 40–80) without concomitant cardiovascular and related diseases is mainly positive. Generally, costs and life-years decrease in unison in the lowest blood pressure group, while in the highest blood pressure group costs and life-years increase together and in the other groups the ACCG scenario is less expensive and produces more life-years. When the costs and effects for subgroups are combined using standard decision analytic aggregation methods, the ACCG scenario is cost-saving and more effective. Conclusion The ACCG scenario is likely to reduce costs and increase life-years compared to the PCP scenario in many subgroups. If the estimated trade-offs between the subgroups in terms of outcomes and costs are acceptable to decision-makers, then widespread implementation of the ACCG scenario is expected to reduce overall costs and be accompanied by positive outcomes overall. PMID:17958883

Combining integrated models and participatory methods to quantify water and agricultural trade-offs linked to different rural development scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivas, David; Willaarts, Barbara; García, Ángel de Miguel; Tarquis, Ana Maria

2017-04-01

This study explores the water and agricultural tradeoffs linked to three different rural development scenarios in the Cega-Eresma-Adaja basin (CEA) in Central Spain. Agriculture is a key socioeconomic activity in CEA, and nearly 44% of the basin is devoted to croplands and pastures. Irrigated agriculture accounts for 12% of the cropland area and is currently using over 84% of available water resources. To define the three scenarios for CEA, we conducted a workshop with local stakeholders to infer how contrasting evolutions of EU agricultural, water and environmental policies could affect the local land use and agricultural management using participatory mapping techniques. The three scenarios reflect 1) a business as usual (BAU) rural development; 2) a land sharing strategy (LSH); and 3) a land sparing (LSP) situation. The integrated Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the changes in water use (hm^3/year) and agricultural productivity (ton/year) under each scenario. To account for changes in agricultural land use and management, the model integrates a large set of agricultural patterns obtained from combining high resolution remote sensing images (20m x 20m) for the years 2011-2015, agricultural productivity from survey by municipality and land use information obtained from the national map SIOSE2011 (1:50.000). Model calibration and sensitivity analysis were performed using SWAT-CUP/SUFI2 The period of the years 2005 to 2008 were used for parameter calibration and validation period extending between 2009 and 2014. The predicted daily streamflow presents a correlation coefficient of 0.76 and a NS coefficient of 0.81. The preliminary results reveal that under a BAU and a LSP scenario agricultural production and water demand will increase significantly (>25%) despite the improvements in water use efficiency and agricultural productivity. Under these scenarios, allocated water is likely to exceed the natural renewable water resources compromising the hydrological and natural balance of the basin. Under a LSH scenario, water use will decrease (10%) from the current situation, but it will entail a loss of agricultural productivity that depends of crop rotations. The results of this study exemplify how participatory approaches and stakeholder knowledge can be incorporated into modeling exercises to address complex water-agriculture problems, as well as the high data requirements needed to provide robust results that can support better decision making.

Agricultural Early Warning Informing Humanitarian Response in East Africa for 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.

2012-12-01

Long rains during the March-April-May (MAM) 2011 growing season were a failure for much of the Greater Horn of Africa. These conditions resulted in severe food shortages, with the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) estimating that 12.4 million people were in need of food assistance in Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia and Djibouti. Heading into the 2012 season, La Niña conditions, an exceptionally strong western-to-central Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, and warm SSTs in the eastern Indian Ocean foretold further dryness, compounding the difficulties faced by the already vulnerable populations of this region. In an effort to assess the potential for greater food insecurity in the region, FEWS NET scientists attempted to quantify the likelihood of a dry event. This work used satellite rainfall estimates with a 13-year rainfall history. Weights were assigned to previous years based on the similarity of existing SST conditions to those of previous years in the rainfall record. Scenarios were created by randomly combining dekadal rainfall from the historical record, in accordance with the weights. This bootstrapping resulted in a suite of simulations which could be used to identify the likelihood of specific rainfall outcomes. Areal averages of each simulation were used in the analysis. Analysis of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) rainfall record, a gridded rainfall product based on available station data, showed that the mean rainfall value for the time period of the satellite data for this region was only about 80% of the 30-year mean. The bootstrapped scenarios were corrected for this bias during the period of the satellite record. Results were expressed as percent of average rather than in absolute rainfall amounts, to account for biases in the satellite products as well as variability in spatial amounts. The results showed that during a normal year the interquartile range is typically 80-120% of normal. However, using the weighted scenarios based on February SSTs, the interquartile range shifted to 75-105% of normal. As the season progressed, March turned out to be exceptionally dry, with a lack of onset of rains for much of the region. This delayed start to the season allowed for the combination of satellite estimates for the start of March to be combined with scenarios to look ahead to end-of-season values. By the end of March, combining estimated 2012 rains with the scenarios built before the season resulted in the interquartile range for expected outcomes dropping to 60-85% of normal. This information was relayed to FEWS NET food security analysts and used in a special report, highlighting the potential for crisis in the region. In April, this forecasting effort, combined with FEWS NET's extensive monitoring activities, helped motivate allocation of an additional $50M in food aid from the U.S. government. This presentation examines the climate conditions associated with MAM drought in the eastern sector of the Greater Horn, reviews the techniques behind the 2012 forecasts, and analyzes the actual outcome for the region. Methods for improving the work to more accurately reflect the variability and future directions and applications will be discussed.

Establishing a cost-effective national surveillance system for Bluetongue using scenario tree modelling.

PubMed

Hadorn, Daniela C; Racloz, Vanessa; Schwermer, Heinzpeter; Stärk, Katharina D C

2009-01-01

Vector-borne diseases pose a special challenge to veterinary authorities due to complex and time-consuming surveillance programs taking into account vector habitat. Using stochastic scenario tree modelling, each possible surveillance activity of a future surveillance system can be evaluated with regard to its sensitivity and the expected cost. The overall sensitivity of various potential surveillance systems, composed of different combinations of surveillance activities, is calculated and the proposed surveillance system is optimized with respect to the considered surveillance activities, the sensitivity and the cost. The objective of this project was to use stochastic scenario tree modelling in combination with a simple cost analysis in order to develop the national surveillance system for Bluetongue in Switzerland. This surveillance system was established due to the emerging outbreak of Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in Northern Europe in 2006. Based on the modelling results, it was decided to implement an improved passive clinical surveillance in cattle and sheep through campaigns in order to increase disease awareness alongside a targeted bulk milk testing strategy in 200 dairy cattle herds located in high-risk areas. The estimated median probability of detection of cases (i.e. sensitivity) of the surveillance system in this combined approach was 96.4%. The evaluation of the prospective national surveillance system predicted that passive clinical surveillance in cattle would provide the highest probability to detect BTV-8 infected animals, followed by passive clinical surveillance in sheep and bulk milk testing of 200 dairy cattle farms in high-risk areas. This approach is also applicable in other countries and to other epidemic diseases.

Neutrino constraints: what large-scale structure and CMB data are telling us?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Costanzi, Matteo; Sartoris, Barbara; Borgani, Stefano

We discuss the reliability of neutrino mass constraints, either active or sterile, from the combination of different low redshift Universe probes with measurements of CMB anisotropies. In our analyses we consider WMAP 9-year or Planck Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data in combination with Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) measurements from BOSS DR11, galaxy shear measurements from CFHTLenS, SDSS Ly α forest constraints and galaxy cluster mass function from Chandra observations. At odds with recent similar studies, to avoid model dependence of the constraints we perform a full likelihood analysis for all the datasets employed. As for the cluster data analysis wemore » rely on to the most recent calibration of massive neutrino effects in the halo mass function and we explore the impact of the uncertainty in the mass bias and re-calibration of the halo mass function due to baryonic feedback processes on cosmological parameters. We find that none of the low redshift probes alone provide evidence for massive neutrino in combination with CMB measurements, while a larger than 2σ detection of non zero neutrino mass, either active or sterile, is achieved combining cluster or shear data with CMB and BAO measurements. Yet, the significance of the detection exceeds 3σ if we combine all four datasets. For a three active neutrino scenario, from the joint analysis of CMB, BAO, shear and cluster data including the uncertainty in the mass bias we obtain ∑ m{sub ν} =0.29{sup +0.18}{sub -0.21} eV and ∑ m{sub ν} =0.22{sup +0.17}{sub -0.18} eV 95%CL) using WMAP9 or Planck as CMB dataset, respectively. The preference for massive neutrino is even larger in the sterile neutrino scenario, for which we get m{sub s}{sup eff}=0.44{sup +0.28}{sub -0.26} eV and Δ N{sub eff}=0.78{sup +0.60}{sub -0.59} 95%CL) from the joint analysis of Planck, BAO, shear and cluster datasets. For this data combination the vanilla ΛCDM model is rejected at more than 3σ and a sterile neutrino mass as motivated by accelerator anomaly is within the 2σ errors. Conversely, the Ly α data favour vanishing neutrino masses and from the data combination Planck+BAO+Ly α we get the tight upper limits ∑ m{sub ν} <0.14 eV and m{sub s}{sup eff}<0.22 eV—Δ N{sub eff}<1.11 95%CL) for the active and sterile neutrino model, respectively. Finally, results from the full data combination reflect the tension between the σ{sub 8} constraints obtained from cluster and shear data and that inferred from Ly α forest measurements; in the active neutrino scenario for both CMB datasets employed, the full data combination yields only an upper limits on ∑ m{sub ν}, while assuming an extra sterile neutrino we still get preference for non-vanishing mass, m{sub s}{sup eff}=0.26{sup +0.22}{sub -0.24} eV, and dark contribution to the radiation content, Δ N{sub eff}=0.82±0.55.« less

Predictions in the face of clinical reality: HistoCheck versus high-risk HLA allele mismatch combinations responsible for severe acute graft-versus-host disease.

PubMed

Askar, Medhat; Sobecks, Ronald; Morishima, Yasuo; Kawase, Takakazu; Nowacki, Amy; Makishima, Hideki; Maciejewski, Jaroslaw

2011-09-01

HLA polymorphism remains a major hurdle for hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). In 2004, Elsner et al. proposed the HistoCheck Web-based tool to estimate the allogeneic potential between HLA-mismatched stem cell donor/recipient pairs expressed as a sequence similarity matching (SSM). SSM is based on the structure of HLA molecules and the functional similarity of amino acids. According to this algorithm, a high SSM score represents high dissimilarity between MHC molecules, resulting in a potentially more deleterious impact on stem cell transplant outcomes. We investigated the potential of SSM to predict high-risk HLA allele mismatch combinations responsible for severe acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD grades III and IV) published by Kawase et al., by comparing SSM in low- and high-risk combinations. SSM was calculated for allele mismatch combinations using the HistoCheck tool available on the Web (www.histocheck.org). We compared ranges and means of SSM among high-risk (15 combinations observed in 722 donor/recipient pairs) versus low-risk allele combinations (94 combinations in 3490 pairs). Simulation scenarios were created where the recipient's HLA allele was involved in multiple allele mismatch combinations with at least 1 high-risk and 1 low-risk mismatch combination. SSM values were then compared. The mean SSM for high- versus low-risk combinations were 2.39 and 2.90 at A, 1.06 and 2.53 at B, 16.60 and 14.99 at C, 4.02 and 3.81 at DRB1, and 7.47 and 6.94 at DPB1 loci, respectively. In simulation scenarios, no predictable SSM association with high- or low-risk combinations could be distinguished. No DQB1 combinations met the statistical criteria for our study. In conclusion, our analysis demonstrates that mean SSM scores were not significantly different, and SSM distributions were overlapping among high- and low-risk allele combinations within loci HLA-A, B, C, DRB1, and DPB1. This analysis does not support selecting donors for HSCT recipients based on low HistoCheck SSM scores. Copyright © 2011 American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An ex-post evaluation approach to assess the impacts of accomplished urban structure shift on landscape connectivity.

PubMed

Huang, Junlong; He, Jianhua; Liu, Dianfeng; Li, Chun; Qian, Jing

2018-05-01

Many studies have been conducted to evaluate the effects of different urban structures on landscape connectivity, and most of them rely on the comparison approach or ex-ante scenario analysis. However, we still lack an ex-post method to capture the consequences of accomplished urban structure shift (from monocentric to polycentric), which is guided by the land use planning. To fill this gap, we develop an ex-post evaluation approach which integrates counterfactual analysis and landscape graphs. Counterfactual analysis is combined with cellular automata simulation model, to uncover what the city might look like, if it had continued to expand in a monocentric structure; and the landscape graphs enable us to reveal the possible landscape connectivity in actual and counterfactual scenarios. We select Nanjing city as the study area and 4 target species, to delve into the varying impacts of the urban structure shift on different taxonomic groups. Our case study demonstrates that: (1) the impact of urban structure shift is more relevant to the long disperser; (2) the actual landscape (polycentric) would facilitate the bird's dispersal, while (3) forest mammals have higher connectivity in the counterfactual scenario (monocentric), and the possible reasons are discussed. Finally, we demonstrate that the urban structure shift might not necessarily cause the connectivity decline, on condition that the key connectivity providers are identified by integrating ecological network analysis into the land use planning, and well preserved in the shift. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A GIS-based methodology for the estimation of potential volcanic damage and its application to Tenerife Island, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scaini, C.; Felpeto, A.; Martí, J.; Carniel, R.

2014-05-01

This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to estimate damages produced by volcanic eruptions. The methodology is constituted by four parts: definition and simulation of eruptive scenarios, exposure analysis, vulnerability assessment and estimation of expected damages. Multi-hazard eruptive scenarios are defined for the Teide-Pico Viejo active volcanic complex, and simulated through the VORIS tool. The exposure analysis identifies the elements exposed to the hazard at stake and focuses on the relevant assets for the study area. The vulnerability analysis is based on previous studies on the built environment and complemented with the analysis of transportation and urban infrastructures. Damage assessment is performed associating a qualitative damage rating to each combination of hazard and vulnerability. This operation consists in a GIS-based overlap, performed for each hazardous phenomenon considered and for each element. The methodology is then automated into a GIS-based tool using an ArcGIS® program. Given the eruptive scenarios and the characteristics of the exposed elements, the tool produces expected damage maps. The tool is applied to the Icod Valley (North of Tenerife Island) which is likely to be affected by volcanic phenomena in case of eruption from both the Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex and North-West basaltic rift. Results are thematic maps of vulnerability and damage that can be displayed at different levels of detail, depending on the user preferences. The aim of the tool is to facilitate territorial planning and risk management in active volcanic areas.

Cost Benefit Analysis of Boat Lifts

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

boats in the high tempo operations scenario, and combined information for all lifts. Crystal Ball ran the model and estimated this total impact...the Department of Homeland Security in the interest of information exchange. The United States Government assumes no liability for its contents or...and recovery of the craft were considered and a total of three were tested. These models included: Hydro Hoist, SunStream, and Jet Dock. The study

Summarizing techniques that combine three non-parametric scores to detect disease-associated 2-way SNP-SNP interactions.

PubMed

Sengupta Chattopadhyay, Amrita; Hsiao, Ching-Lin; Chang, Chien Ching; Lian, Ie-Bin; Fann, Cathy S J

2014-01-01

Identifying susceptibility genes that influence complex diseases is extremely difficult because loci often influence the disease state through genetic interactions. Numerous approaches to detect disease-associated SNP-SNP interactions have been developed, but none consistently generates high-quality results under different disease scenarios. Using summarizing techniques to combine a number of existing methods may provide a solution to this problem. Here we used three popular non-parametric methods-Gini, absolute probability difference (APD), and entropy-to develop two novel summary scores, namely principle component score (PCS) and Z-sum score (ZSS), with which to predict disease-associated genetic interactions. We used a simulation study to compare performance of the non-parametric scores, the summary scores, the scaled-sum score (SSS; used in polymorphism interaction analysis (PIA)), and the multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR). The non-parametric methods achieved high power, but no non-parametric method outperformed all others under a variety of epistatic scenarios. PCS and ZSS, however, outperformed MDR. PCS, ZSS and SSS displayed controlled type-I-errors (<0.05) compared to GS, APDS, ES (>0.05). A real data study using the genetic-analysis-workshop 16 (GAW 16) rheumatoid arthritis dataset identified a number of interesting SNP-SNP interactions. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Play seriously: Effectiveness of serious games and their features in motor rehabilitation. A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tăut, Diana; Pintea, Sebastian; Roovers, Jan-Paul W R; Mañanas, Miguel-Angel; Băban, Adriana

2017-01-01

Evidence for the effectiveness of serious games (SGs) and their various features is inconsistent in the motor rehabilitation field, which makes evidence based development of SGs a rare practice. To investigate the effectiveness of SGs in motor rehabilitation for upper limb and movement/balance and to test the potential moderating role of SGs features like feedback, activities, characters and background. We ran a meta-analysis including 61 studies reporting randomized controlled trials (RCTs), controlled trials (CTs) or case series designs in which at least one intervention for motor rehabilitation included the use of SGs as standalone or in combination. There was an overall moderate effect of SGs on motor indices, d = 0.59, [95% CI, 0.48, 0.71], p <  0.001. Regarding the game features, only two out of 17 moderators were statistically different in terms of effect sizes: type of activity (combination of group with individual activities had the highest effects), and realism of the scenario (fantasy scenarios had the highest effects). While we showed that SGs are more effective in improving motor upper limb and movement/balance functions compared to conventional rehabilitation, there were no consistent differences between various game features in their contribution to effects. Further research should systematically investigate SGs features that might have added value in improving effectiveness.

Human and Organizational Factors in the U.S. Naval Construction Force: A Qualitative Analysis of the U.S. Naval Mobile Construction Battalion Peacetime Deployment Construction Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-09-01

a program in its weapons systems acquisition program known as HARDMAN (Hardware/ Manpower Comparability Analysis Methodology) which combined...battalion-wide real-time training exercises out in the field each homeport. These field exercises are driven by tactical scenarios that tax the full range...received the proper training for your rating during A-School? q 1 q 2 q 3 q 4 q 5 q 6 q 7 If not, why not

Decision support framework for evaluating the operational environment of forest bioenergy production and use: Case of four European countries.

PubMed

Pezdevšek Malovrh, Špela; Kurttila, Mikko; Hujala, Teppo; Kärkkäinen, Leena; Leban, Vasja; Lindstad, Berit H; Peters, Dörte Marie; Rhodius, Regina; Solberg, Birger; Wirth, Kristina; Zadnik Stirn, Lidija; Krč, Janez

2016-09-15

Complex policy-making situations around bioenergy production and use require examination of the operational environment of the society and a participatory approach. This paper presents and demonstrates a three-phase decision-making framework for analysing the operational environment of strategies related to increased forest bioenergy targets. The framework is based on SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis and the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART). Stakeholders of four case countries (Finland, Germany, Norway and Slovenia) defined the factors that affect the operational environments, classified in four pre-set categories (Forest Characteristics and Management, Policy Framework, Technology and Science, and Consumers and Society). The stakeholders participated in weighting of SWOT items for two future scenarios with SMART technique. The first scenario reflected the current 2020 targets (the Business-as-Usual scenario), and the second scenario contained a further increase in the targets (the Increase scenario). This framework can be applied to various problems of environmental management and also to other fields where public decision-making is combined with stakeholders' engagement. The case results show that the greatest differences between the scenarios appear in Germany, indicating a notably negative outlook for the Increase scenario, while the smallest differences were found in Finland. Policy Framework was a highly rated category across the countries, mainly with respect to weaknesses and threats. Intensified forest bioenergy harvesting and utilization has potentially wide country-specific impacts which need to be anticipated and considered in national policies and public dialogue. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir.

PubMed

Nunes, João Pedro; Jacinto, Rita; Keizer, Jan Jacob

2017-04-15

The impacts of climate and associated socio-economic changes on water availability, including supply and demand, quality, and storage volume, were evaluated for the Vale do Gaio reservoir in southern Portugal, located in a dry Mediterranean climate and already under drought stress. The SWAT model was applied with 6 scenarios for 2071-2100, involving two storylines (A1B and B1) with individual changes in climate (-9% rainfall, increasing in winter by +28 to +30%), socio-economic conditions (an increase in irrigation demand by 11%, and a replacement of cereals and pastures by sunflower), and a combination of both. Most future scenarios resulted in lower water availability, due to lower supply (-19 to -27%) combined with higher irrigation demand (+3 to +21%). This resulted in more years with limited irrigation supplies (presently: 28%; scenarios: 37 to 43%), although limitations were mitigated by lower losses to excess discharge. Land-use changes also decreased quality by increasing P concentrations (+29 to +93%). Impacts were more severe in scenario A1B than in B1, and in combined changes than in climate or socio-economic changes only. Water availability was resilient to climate change, as impacts led only to a moderate aggravation of present-day conditions. Lower future water availability could be addressed by supply and demand management strategies and, in the most extreme scenario, by water transfers from regional water reserves; water quality issues could be addressed through land-use policies. Results also highlighted the importance of taking the characteristics of water supply systems into account when designing adaptation measures for future changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of groundwater artificial recharge management scenario for sustainable water resources development in Gaza Strip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusteberg, Bernd; Azizur Rahman, M.; Abusaada, Muath; Rabi, Ayman; Rahman Tamimi, A.; Sauter, Martin

2010-05-01

The water resources in Gaza Strip are currently facing extreme over-exploitation which has led to a sharp decline of the groundwater level in this Mediterranean coastal aquifer overtime. Salinity of the groundwater is very high as a result of subsequent seawater intrusion of the aquifer. The contamination of the Gaza Strip groundwater by seawater has wide-ranging effects on the regional economy as well as agricultural productivity. In order to guarantee the sustainability of regional development, which requires the access to clean water, groundwater artificial recharge (AR) is being considered as a potential solution to this current water resources problem. The objective of the present study is to analyze several strategies for the implementation and management of AR in Gaza Strip and their potential impacts on agriculture, environment, and the socio-economy. Based on the water policy on wastewater reclamation and reuse (Yr. 2005 - 2025), six AR management strategies were developed in close cooperation with the local stakeholder community. These scenarios take into consideration the development of the new North Gaza Wastewater Treatment Plant and were also judged with respect to a base-line scenario, otherwise known as the "Do Nothing Approach." Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) on ranking of the AR management scenarios was used. Twenty-one criteria ranging over a wide spectrum and four categories (Environmental, Public Health, Social, and Economical) were defined to ensure sound evaluation of each of the six AR management scenarios. A detailed geo-database was prepared to analyze all the related spatial, non-spatial, and temporal data. Socio-economic studies, field surveys, mathematical modeling, and GIS analysis were used for the criteria quantification. In the MCDA, Analytical Hierarchy Method (AHP) combined with weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and Composite Programming (CP) was employed. The six AR management strategies were thus compared to the "Do Nothing Approach" based on the defined environmental, health, social, and economical criteria, the most important being related to the environment and the economy. The robustness of the achieved ranking of AR management options has been tested by changing the selected criteria, criteria importance and criteria structure. The final analysis shows that all six AR management strategies are better than "doing nothing". The implementation of groundwater artificial recharge with maximum possible infiltration of secondary treated effluent in conjunction with sustainable reuse of the recharged water for agricultural development is the most effective AR solution to the water resources problems of the Gaza Strip.

Scenario design and basic analysis of the National Data Centre Preparedness Exercise 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, Ole; Ceranna, Lars; Hartmann, Gernot; Gestermann, Nicolai; Bönneman, Christian

2014-05-01

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) prohibits all kinds of nuclear explosions. For the detection of treaty violations the International Monitoring System (IMS) operates stations observing seismic, hydroacoustic, and infrasound signals as well as radioisotopes in the atmosphere. While the IMS data is collected, processed and technically analyzed in the International Data Center (IDC) of the CTBT-Organization, National Data Centers (NDC) provide interpretation and advice to their government concerning suspicious detections occurring in IMS data. NDC Preparedness Exercises (NPE) are regularly performed dealing with fictitious treaty violations to practice the combined analysis of CTBT verification technologies and for the mutual exchange of information between NDC and also with the IDC. The NPE2010 and NPE2012 trigger scenarios were based on selected seismic events from the Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) serving as starting point for fictitious Radionuclide dispersion. The main task was the identification of the original REB event and the discrimination between earthquakes and explosions as source. The scenario design of NPE2013 differs from those of previous NPEs. The waveform event selection is not constrained to events in the REB. The exercise trigger is a combination of a tempo-spatial indication pointing to a certain waveform event and simulated radionuclide concentrations generated by forward Atmospheric Transport Modelling based on a fictitious release. For the waveform event the date (4 Sept. 2013) is given and the region is communicated in a map showing the fictitious state of "Frisia" at the Coast of the North Sea in Central Europe. The synthetic radionuclide detections start in Vienna (8 Sept, I-131) and Schauinsland (11 Sept, Xe-133) with rather low activity concentrations and are most prominent in Stockholm and Spitsbergen mid of September 2013. Smaller concentrations in Asia follow later on. The potential connection between the waveform and radionuclide evidence remains unclear. The verification task is to identify the waveform event and to investigate potential sources of the radionuclide findings. Finally the potential conjunction between the sources and the CTBT-relevance of the whole picture has to be evaluated. The overall question is whether requesting an On-Site-Inspection in "Frisia" would be justified. The poster presents the NPE2013 scenario and gives a basic analysis of the initial situation concerning both waveform detections and atmospheric dispersion conditions in Central Europe in early September 2013. The full NPE2013 scenario will be presented at the NDC Workshop mid of May 2014.

Dairy Analytics and Nutrient Analysis (DANA) Prototype System User Manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sam Alessi; Dennis Keiser

2012-10-01

This document is a user manual for the Dairy Analytics and Nutrient Analysis (DANA) model. DANA provides an analysis of dairy anaerobic digestion technology and allows users to calculate biogas production, co-product valuation, capital costs, expenses, revenue and financial metrics, for user customizable scenarios, dairy and digester types. The model provides results for three anaerobic digester types; Covered Lagoons, Modified Plug Flow, and Complete Mix, and three main energy production technologies; electricity generation, renewable natural gas generation, and compressed natural gas generation. Additional options include different dairy types, bedding types, backend treatment type as well as numerous production, and economicmore » parameters. DANA’s goal is to extend the National Market Value of Anaerobic Digester Products analysis (informa economics, 2012; Innovation Center, 2011) to include a greater and more flexible set of regional digester scenarios and to provide a modular framework for creation of a tool to support farmer and investor needs. Users can set up scenarios from combinations of existing parameters or add new parameters, run the model and view a variety of reports, charts and tables that are automatically produced and delivered over the web interface. DANA is based in the INL’s analysis architecture entitled Generalized Environment for Modeling Systems (GEMS) , which offers extensive collaboration, analysis, and integration opportunities and greatly speeds the ability construct highly scalable web delivered user-oriented decision tools. DANA’s approach uses server-based data processing and web-based user interfaces, rather a client-based spreadsheet approach. This offers a number of benefits over the client-based approach. Server processing and storage can scale up to handle a very large number of scenarios, so that analysis of county, even field level, across the whole U.S., can be performed. Server based databases allow dairy and digester parameters be held and managed in a single managed data repository, while allows users to customize standard values and perform individual analysis. Server-based calculations can be easily extended, versions and upgrades managed, and any changes are immediately available to all users. This user manual describes how to use and/or modify input database tables, run DANA, view and modify reports.« less

The value of superpower-submitted INDCs in cooperative and non-cooperative action scenarios: economic impact, dynamic risk, and temperature rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Augustin, C. M.

2015-12-01

As the 2015 Paris climate talks near, policy discussions are focused on "intended nationally determined contributions" (INDCs) submitted in advance of the discussions. As the major global emitters - specifically the United States and China - have already submitted their INDCs, we have a point of comparison for evaluating the relative potential impacts of the proposed targets. By applying integrated assessment models to robust, publicly available data sets,we aim to evaluate the interplay between climate change and economic development, comment on emissions reduction scenarios in cooperative and non-cooperative situations, and assess the dynamic risks of multiple regional emissions scenarios. We use both the RICE model and the C-ROADS model to examine alternative regional outcomes for emissions, climate change, and damages,under different reduction scenarios, including a scenario where geo-engineering plays a prominent role. These simulators allow us to vary emissions, population, and economic levels in China and the United States specifically to comment on the international climate risk impact of actors working jointly - or not - toward a global climate goal. In a complementary piece of analysis we seek to understand the value judgments, trade-offs, and regional policies that would lead to favorable climate finance flows. To reach an international sample of industry decision-makers, we propose a novel application of a standard discrete-choice survey methodology. A conjoint analysis requires a participant to chose between combinations of attributes and identify trade-offs while allowing the researcher to determine the relative importance of each individual attribute by mathematically assessing the impact each attribute could have on total item utility. As climate policy negotiations will consist of allocation of scarce resources and rejection of certain attributes, a conjoint analysis is an ideal tool for evaluating policy outcomes. This research program seeks to provide a commentary useful to policy makers on the most desirable outcomes of the negotiations and other international cooperation.

Meeting China's electricity needs through clean energy sources: A 2030 low-carbon energy roadmap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zheng

China is undergoing rapid economic development that generates significant increase in energy demand, primarily for electricity. Energy supply in China is heavily relying on coal, which leads to high carbon emissions. This dissertation explores opportunities for meeting China's growing power demand through clean energy sources. The utilization of China's clean energy sources as well as demand-side management is still at the initial phase. Therefore, development of clean energy sources would require substantial government support in order to be competitive in the market. One of the widely used means to consider clean energy in power sector supplying is Integrated Resource Strategic Planning, which aims to minimize the long term electricity costs while screening various power supply options for the power supply and demand analysis. The IRSP tool tackles the energy problem from the perspective of power sector regulators, and provides different policy scenarios to quantify the impacts of combined incentives. Through three scenario studies, Business as Usual, High Renewable, and Renewable and Demand Side Management, this dissertation identifies the optimized scenario for China to achieve the clean energy target of 2030. The scenarios are assessed through energy, economics, environment, and equity dimensions.

[Horizon scanning in preparation for future health threats: a pilot exercise conducted by the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance in 2014].

PubMed

Eilstein, Daniel; Xerri, Bertrand; Viso, Anne-Catherine; Therre, Hélène; Gorza, Maud; Fuchs, Doriane; Pozuelos, Jérôme; Ioos, Sophie; Che, Didier; Bertrand, Edwige; El Yamani, Mounia; Empereur-Bissonnet, Pascal; Duport, Nicolas; Desenclos, Jean-Claude

2016-01-01

Background: Health surveillance is a reactive process, with no real hindsight for dealing with signals and alerts. It may fail to detect more radical changes with a major medium-term or long-term impact on public health. To increase proactivity, the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance has opted for a prospective monitoring approach.Methods: Several steps were necessary: 1) Identification of public health determinants. 2) Identification of key variables based on a combination of determinants. Variables were classified into three groups (health event trigger factors, dissemination factors and response factors) and were submitted to future development assumptions. 3) Identification, in each of the three groups, of micro-scenarios derived from variable trends. 4) Identification of macro-scenarios, each built from the three micro-scenarios for each of the three groups. 5) Identification of issues for the future of public health.Results: The exercise identified 22 key variables, 17 micro-scenarios and 5 macro-scenarios. The topics retained relate to issues on social and territorial health inequalities, health burden, individual and collective responsibilities in terms of health, ethical aspects, emerging phenomena, ‘Big data’, data mining, new health technologies, interlocking of analysis scales.Conclusions: The approach presented here guides the programming of activities of a health safety agency, particularly for monitoring and surveillance. By describing possible future scenarios, health surveillance can help decision-makers to influence the context towards one or more favourable futures.

Integrated assessments of green infrastructure for flood mitigation to support robust decision-making for sponge city construction in an urbanized watershed.

PubMed

Mei, Chao; Liu, Jiahong; Wang, Hao; Yang, Zhiyong; Ding, Xiangyi; Shao, Weiwei

2018-10-15

Green Infrastructure (GI) has become increasingly important in urban stormwater management because of the effects of climate change and urbanization. To mitigate severe urban water-related problems, China is implementing GI at the national scale under its Sponge City Program (SCP). The SCP is currently in a pilot period, however, little attention has been paid to the cost-effectiveness of GI implementation in China. In this study, an evaluation framework based on the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) was applied to undertake integrated assessments of the development of GI for flood mitigation, to support robust decision making regarding sponge city construction in urbanized watersheds. A baseline scenario and 15 GI scenarios under six design rainfall events with recurrence intervals ranging from 2-100 years were simulated and assessed. Model simulation results confirmed the effectiveness of GI for flood mitigation. Nevertheless, even under the most beneficial scenario, the results showed the hydrological performance of GI was incapable of eliminating flooding. Analysis indicated the bioretention cell (BC) plus vegetated swale (VS) scenario was the most cost-effective GI option for unit investment under all rainfall events. However, regarding the maximum potential of the implementation areas of all GI scenarios, the porous pavement plus BC + VS strategy was considered most reasonable for the study area. Although the optimal combinations are influenced by uncertainties in both the model and the GI parameters, the main trends and key insights derived remain unaffected; therefore, the conclusions are relevant regarding sponge city construction within the study area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scenario-targeted toxicity assessment through multiple endpoint bioassays in a soil posing unacceptable environmental risk according to regulatory screening values.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Ruiz, A; Etxebarria, J; Boatti, L; Marigómez, I

2015-09-01

Lanestosa is a chronically polluted site (derelict mine) where the soil (Lanestosa (LA) soil) exceeds screening values (SVs) of regulatory policies in force (Basque Country; Europe) for Zn, Pb and Cd. A scenario-targeted toxicity assessment was carried out on the basis of a multi-endpoint bioassay approach. Acute and chronic toxicity bioassays were conducted with selected test species (Vibrio fischeri, Dictyostelium discoideum, Lactuca sativa, Raphanus sativus and Eisenia fetida) in combination with chemical analysis of soils and elutriates and with bioaccumulation studies in earthworms. Besides, the toxicity profile was compared with that of the mine runoff (RO) soil and of a fresh artificially polluted soil (LAAPS) resembling LA soil pollutant profile. Extractability studies in LA soil revealed that Pb, Zn and Cd were highly available for exchange and/or release into the environment. Indeed, Pb and Zn were accumulated in earthworms and LA soil resulted to be toxic. Soil respiration, V. fischeri, vegetative and developmental cycles of D. discoideum and survival and juvenile production of E. fetida were severely affected. These results confirmed that LA soil had unacceptable environmental risk and demanded intervention. In contrast, although Pb and Zn concentrations in RO soil revealed also unacceptable risk, both metal extractability and toxicity were much lower than in LA soil. Thus, within the polluted site, the need for intervention varied between areas that posed dissimilar risk. Besides, since LAAPS, with a high exchangeable metal fraction, was the most toxic, ageing under in situ natural conditions seemingly contributed to attenuate LA soil risk. As a whole, combining multi-endpoint bioassays with scenario-targeted analysis (including leaching and ageing) provides reliable risk assessment in soils posing unacceptable environmental risk according to SVs, which is useful to optimise the required intervention measures.

Multi-Factor Impact Analysis of Agricultural Production in Bangladesh with Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Major, David C.; Yu, Winston H.; Alam, Mozaharul; Hussain, Sk. Ghulam; Khan, Abu Saleh; Hassan, Ahmadul; Al Hossain, Bhuiya Md. Tamim; Goldberg, Richard; Horton, Radley M.;

E-GRASP/Eratosthenes: a mission proposal for millimetric TRF realization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biancale, Richard; Pollet, Arnaud; Coulot, David; Mandea, Mioara

2017-04-01

The ITRF is currently worked out by independent concatenation of space technique information. GNSS, DORIS, SLR and VLBI data are processed independently by analysis centers before combination centers form mono-technique sets which are then combined together to produce official ITRF solutions. Actually this approach performs quite well, although systematisms between techniques remain visible in origin or scale parameters of the underlying terrestrial frames, for instance. Improvement and homogenization of TRF are expected in the future, provided that dedicated multi-technique platforms are used at best. The goal fixed by GGOS to realizing the terrestrial reference system with an accuracy of 1 mm and a long-term stability of 0.1 mm/yr can be next achieved in the E-GRASP/Eratosthenes scenario. This mission proposed to ESA as response of the 2017 Earth Explorer-9 call was already scientifically well assessed in the 2016 EE9 call. It co-locates all of the fundamental space-based geodetic instruments, GNSS and DORIS receivers, laser retro-reflectors, and a VLBI transmitter on the same satellite platform on a highly eccentric orbit with particular attention paid to the time and space metrology on board. Different kinds of simulations were performed both for discriminating the best orbital scenario according to many geometric/technical/physical criteria and for assessing the expected performances on the TRF according to GGOS goals. The presentation will focus on the mission scenario and simulation results.

Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Ruardij, P.

2014-11-01

An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg mortality, background mortality, food competition, and predation (including cannibalism) were additional population processes. Model properties were studied through the analysis of theoretical scenarios and by simulation of different mortality parameter combinations in a realistic setup, imposing environmental measurements. Realistic criteria were applied to narrow down the possible combination of parameter values. Field observations obtained in the long-term and multi-station monitoring program were compared with the model scenarios. The realistically selected modeling scenarios were able to reproduce reasonably the timing of some peaks in the individual abundances in the mussel bed and its size distribution but the number of individuals was not well predicted. The results suggest that the mortality in the early life stages (egg and larvae) plays an important role in population dynamics, either by initial egg mortality, larvae dispersion, settlement failure or shrimp predation. Future steps include the coupling of the population model with a hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model to improve the simulation of egg/larvae dispersion, settlement probability, food transport and also to simulate the feedback of the organisms' activity on the water column properties, which will result in an improvement of the food quantity and quality characterization.

Proposing "the burns suite" as a novel simulation tool for advancing the delivery of burns education.

PubMed

Sadideen, Hazim; Wilson, David; Moiemen, Naiem; Kneebone, Roger

2014-01-01

Educational theory highlights the importance of contextualized simulation for effective learning. We explored this concept in a burns scenario in a novel, low-cost, high-fidelity, portable, immersive simulation environment (referred to as distributed simulation). This contextualized simulation/distributed simulation combination was named "The Burns Suite" (TBS). A pediatric burn resuscitation scenario was selected after high trainee demand. It was designed on Advanced Trauma and Life Support and Emergency Management of Severe Burns principles and refined using expert opinion through cognitive task analysis. TBS contained "realism" props, briefed nurses, and a simulated patient. Novices and experts were recruited. Five-point Likert-type questionnaires were developed for face and content validity. Cronbach's α was calculated for scale reliability. Semistructured interviews captured responses for qualitative thematic analysis allowing for data triangulation. Twelve participants completed TBS scenario. Mean face and content validity ratings were high (4.6 and 4.5, respectively; range, 4-5). The internal consistency of questions was high. Qualitative data analysis revealed that participants felt 1) the experience was "real" and they were "able to behave as if in a real resuscitation environment," and 2) TBS "addressed what Advanced Trauma and Life Support and Emergency Management of Severe Burns didn't" (including the efficacy of incorporating nontechnical skills). TBS provides a novel, effective simulation tool to significantly advance the delivery of burns education. Recreating clinical challenge is crucial to optimize simulation training. This low-cost approach also has major implications for surgical education, particularly during increasing financial austerity. Alternative scenarios and/or procedures can be recreated within TBS, providing a diverse educational immersive simulation experience.

Robotic Mars Sample Return: Risk Assessment and Analysis Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lalk, Thomas R.; Spence, Cliff A.

2003-01-01

A comparison of the risk associated with two alternative scenarios for a robotic Mars sample return mission was conducted. Two alternative mission scenarios were identified, the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) reference Mission and a mission proposed by Johnson Space Center (JSC). The JPL mission was characterized by two landers and an orbiter, and a Mars orbit rendezvous to retrieve the samples. The JSC mission (Direct/SEP) involves a solar electric propulsion (SEP) return to earth followed by a rendezvous with the space shuttle in earth orbit. A qualitative risk assessment to identify and characterize the risks, and a risk analysis to quantify the risks were conducted on these missions. Technical descriptions of the competing scenarios were developed in conjunction with NASA engineers and the sequence of events for each candidate mission was developed. Risk distributions associated with individual and combinations of events were consolidated using event tree analysis in conjunction with Monte Carlo techniques to develop probabilities of mission success for each of the various alternatives. The results were the probability of success of various end states for each candidate scenario. These end states ranged from complete success through various levels of partial success to complete failure. Overall probability of success for the Direct/SEP mission was determined to be 66% for the return of at least one sample and 58% for the JPL mission for the return of at least one sample cache. Values were also determined for intermediate events and end states as well as for the probability of violation of planetary protection. Overall mission planetary protection event probabilities of occurrence were determined to be 0.002% and 1.3% for the Direct/SEP and JPL Reference missions respectively.

Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

2015-01-01

The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

Scenario Analysis for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Critical Review.

PubMed

Tosoni, Edoardo; Salo, Ahti; Zio, Enrico

2018-04-01

A major challenge in scenario analysis for the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories pertains to the comprehensiveness of the set of scenarios selected for assessing the safety of the repository. Motivated by this challenge, we discuss the aspects of scenario analysis relevant to comprehensiveness. Specifically, we note that (1) it is necessary to make it clear why scenarios usually focus on a restricted set of features, events, and processes; (2) there is not yet consensus on the interpretation of comprehensiveness for guiding the generation of scenarios; and (3) there is a need for sound approaches to the treatment of epistemic uncertainties. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Environmental and natural resource implications of sustainable urban infrastructure systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergesen, Joseph D.; Suh, Sangwon; Baynes, Timothy M.; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

2017-12-01

As cities grow, their environmental and natural resource footprints also tend to grow to keep up with the increasing demand on essential urban services such as passenger transportation, commercial space, and thermal comfort. The urban infrastructure systems, or socio-technical systems providing these services are the major conduits through which natural resources are consumed and environmental impacts are generated. This paper aims to gauge the potential reductions in environmental and resources footprints through urban transformation, including the deployment of resource-efficient socio-technical systems and strategic densification. Using hybrid life cycle assessment approach combined with scenarios, we analyzed the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water use, metal consumption and land use of selected socio-technical systems in 84 cities from the present to 2050. The socio-technical systems analyzed are: (1) bus rapid transit with electric buses, (2) green commercial buildings, and (3) district energy. We developed a baseline model for each city considering gross domestic product, population density, and climate conditions. Then, we overlaid three scenarios on top of the baseline model: (1) decarbonization of electricity, (2) aggressive deployment of resource-efficient socio-technical systems, and (3) strategic urban densification scenarios to each city and quantified their potentials in reducing the environmental and resource impacts of cities by 2050. The results show that, under the baseline scenario, the environmental and natural resource footprints of all 84 cities combined would increase 58%-116% by 2050. The resource-efficient scenario along with strategic densification, however, has the potential to curve down GHG emissions to 17% below the 2010 level in 2050. Such transformation can also limit the increase in all resource footprints to less than 23% relative to 2010. This analysis suggests that resource-efficient urban infrastructure and decarbonization of electricity coupled with strategic densification have a potential to mitigate resources and environmental footprints of growing cities.

Vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef to climate change and local pressures.

PubMed

Wolff, Nicholas H; Mumby, Peter J; Devlin, Michelle; Anthony, Kenneth R N

2018-05-01

Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under pressure from a suite of stressors including cyclones, crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), nutrients from river run-off and warming events that drive mass coral bleaching. Two key questions are: how vulnerable will the GBR be to future environmental scenarios, and to what extent can local management actions lower vulnerability in the face of climate change? To address these questions, we use a simple empirical and mechanistic coral model to explore six scenarios that represent plausible combinations of climate change projections (from four Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs), cyclones and local stressors. Projections (2017-2050) indicate significant potential for coral recovery in the near-term, relative to current state, followed by climate-driven decline. Under a scenario of unmitigated emissions (RCP8.5) and business-as-usual management of local stressors, mean coral cover on the GBR is predicted to recover over the next decade and then rapidly decline to only 3% by year 2050. In contrast, a scenario of strong carbon mitigation (RCP2.6) and improved water quality, predicts significant coral recovery over the next two decades, followed by a relatively modest climate-driven decline that sustained coral cover above 26% by 2050. In an analysis of the impacts of cumulative stressors on coral cover relative to potential coral cover in the absence of such impacts, we found that GBR-wide reef performance will decline 27%-74% depending on the scenario. Up to 66% of performance loss is attributable to local stressors. The potential for management to reduce vulnerability, measured here as the mean number of years coral cover can be kept above 30%, is spatially variable. Management strategies that alleviate cumulative impacts have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of some midshelf reefs in the central GBR by 83%, but only if combined with strong mitigation of carbon emissions. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of the performance of accelerometer-based gait event detection algorithms in different real-world scenarios using the MAREA gait database.

PubMed

Khandelwal, Siddhartha; Wickström, Nicholas

2017-01-01

Numerous gait event detection (GED) algorithms have been developed using accelerometers as they allow the possibility of long-term gait analysis in everyday life. However, almost all such existing algorithms have been developed and assessed using data collected in controlled indoor experiments with pre-defined paths and walking speeds. On the contrary, human gait is quite dynamic in the real-world, often involving varying gait speeds, changing surfaces and varying surface inclinations. Though portable wearable systems can be used to conduct experiments directly in the real-world, there is a lack of publicly available gait datasets or studies evaluating the performance of existing GED algorithms in various real-world settings. This paper presents a new gait database called MAREA (n=20 healthy subjects) that consists of walking and running in indoor and outdoor environments with accelerometers positioned on waist, wrist and both ankles. The study also evaluates the performance of six state-of-the-art accelerometer-based GED algorithms in different real-world scenarios, using the MAREA gait database. The results reveal that the performance of these algorithms is inconsistent and varies with changing environments and gait speeds. All algorithms demonstrated good performance for the scenario of steady walking in a controlled indoor environment with a combined median F1score of 0.98 for Heel-Strikes and 0.94 for Toe-Offs. However, they exhibited significantly decreased performance when evaluated in other lesser controlled scenarios such as walking and running in an outdoor street, with a combined median F1score of 0.82 for Heel-Strikes and 0.53 for Toe-Offs. Moreover, all GED algorithms displayed better performance for detecting Heel-Strikes as compared to Toe-Offs, when evaluated in different scenarios. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison between the Trachway video intubating stylet and Macintosh laryngoscope in four simulated difficult tracheal intubations: A manikin study

PubMed Central

Ong, Jimmy; Lee, Chia-Ling; Huang, Shen-Jer; Shyr, Ming-Hwang

2016-01-01

Objectives: It remains to be determined whether the TVI-4000 Trachway video intubating (TVI) stylet (Markstein Sichtec Medical Corp, Taichung, Taiwan), an airway device for novices, improves airway management practice by experienced anesthesiologists. The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of using the TVI stylet in difficult tracheal intubation situations compared with that of using the Macintosh laryngoscope on an airway manikin. Materials and Methods: Ten anesthesiologists (with 3–21 years’ experience), including three senior residents, participated. We compared tracheal intubation in four airway scenarios: normal airway, tongue edema, cervical spine immobilization, and tongue edema combined with cervical spine immobilization. The time of tracheal intubation (TTI), success rate, and perceived difficulty of intubation for each scenario were compared and analyzed. Results: The TTI was significantly shorter in both the tongue edema and combined scenarios with the TVI stylet compared with the Macintosh laryngoscope (21.60 ± 1.45 seconds vs. 24.07 ± 1.58 seconds and 23.73 ± 2.05 seconds vs. 26.6 ± 2.77 seconds, respectively). Success rates for both devices were 100%. Concomitantly, participants rated using the TVI stylet in these two scenarios as being less difficult. Conclusion: The learning time for tracheal intubation using the TVI stylet in difficult airway scenarios was short. Use of the TVI stylet was easier and required a shorter TTI for tracheal intubation in the tongue edema and combined scenarios. PMID:28757736

Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: concept development and application to Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, Heiko; Martínez Trepat, Oriol; Nghia Hung, Nguyen; Thi Chinh, Do; Merz, Bruno; Viet Dung, Nguyen

2016-04-01

Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either a fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of a combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims to analyse a fluvial and a pluvial flood hazard individually, but also to develop a method for the analysis of a combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as an example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River, which can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events, causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. The fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula-based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. The pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data and a stochastic rainstorm generator. Inundation for all flood scenarios was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. The combined fluvial-pluvial flood scenarios were derived by adding rainstorms to the fluvial flood events during the highest fluvial water levels. The probabilities of occurrence of the combined events were determined assuming independence of the two flood types and taking the seasonality and probability of coincidence into account. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation taking into account the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

The Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change in Agriculture and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, A.; Quiroga, S.; Garrote, L.; Cunningham, R.

2012-04-01

This paper provides monetary estimates of the effects of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. The model computes spatial crop productivity changes as a response to climate change linking biophysical and socioeconomic components. It combines available data sets of crop productivity changes under climate change (Iglesias et al 2011, Ciscar et al 2011), statistical functions of productivity response to water and nitrogen inputs, catchment level water availability, and environmental policy scenarios. Future global change scenarios are derived from several socio-economic futures of representative concentration pathways and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model. The marginal productivity changes has been used as an input for the economic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the economic impact of the agricultural changes induced by climate change in the world. The study also includes the analysis of an adaptive capacity index computed by using the socio-economic results of GTAP. The results are combined to prioritize agricultural adaptation policy needs in Europe.

Process simulation and cost analysis for removing inorganics from wood chips using combined mechanical and chemical preprocessing

DOE PAGES

Hu, Hongqiang; Westover, Tyler L.; Cherry, Robert; ...

2016-10-03

Inorganic species (ash) in biomass feedstocks negatively impact thermochemical and biochemical energy conversion processes. In this work, a process simulation model is developed to model the reduction in ash content of loblolly logging residues using a combination of air classification and dilute-acid leaching. Various scenarios are considered, and it is found that costs associated with discarding high-ash material from air classification are substantial. The costs of material loss can be reduced by chemical leaching the high-ash fraction obtained from air classification. The optimal leaching condition is found to be approximately 0.1 wt% sulfuric acid at 24°C. In example scenarios, totalmore » process costs in the range of $10-12/dry tonnes of product are projected that result in a removal of 11, 66, 53 and 86% of organics, total ash (inorganics), alkaline earth metals and phosphorus (AAEMS+P), and silicon, respectively. Here, sensitivity analyses indicate that costs associated with loss of organic material during processing (yield losses), brine disposal, and labor have the greatest potential to impact the total processing cost.« less

Wives without husbands: gendered vulnerability to sexually transmitted infections among previously married women in India.

PubMed

Walters, Kimberly; Dandona, Rakhi; Walters, Lawrence C; Lakshmi, Vemu; Dandona, Lalit; Schneider, John A

2012-01-01

Using population-based and family structural data from a high HIV-prevalence district of Southern India, this paper considers four suggested social scenarios used to explain the positive correlation between HIV prevalence and previously married status among Indian women: (1) infection from and then bereavement of an infected husband; (2) abandonment after husbands learn of their wives' HIV status; (3) economic instability after becoming previously married, leading women to seek financial support through male partners; and (4) the social status of being previously married exposing women to sexual harassment and predation. By also considering seroprevalence of two other common sexually transmitted infections (STIs), herpes and syphilis, in a combined variable with HIV, we limit the likelihood of the first two scenarios accounting for the greater part of this correlation. Through a nuanced analysis of household residences patterns (family structure), standard of living, and education, we also limit the probability that scenario three explains a greater portion of the correlation. Scenario four emerges as the most likely explanation for this correlation, recognizing that other scenarios are also possible. Further, the interdisciplinary literature on the social position of previously married women in India strongly supports the suggestion that, as a population, previously married women are sexually vulnerable in India. Previously married status as an STI risk factor requires further biosocial research and warrants concentrated public health attention.

Economic and environmental evaluation model for selecting the optimum design of green roof systems in elementary schools.

PubMed

Kim, JiMin; Hong, TaeHoon; Koo, Choong-Wan

2012-08-07

Green-roof systems offer various benefits to man and nature, such as establishing ecological environments, improving landscape and air quality, and offering pleasant living environments. This study aimed to develop an optimal-scenario selection model that considers both the economic and the environmental effect in applying GRSs to educational facilities. The following process was carried out: (i) 15 GRSs scenarios were established by combining three soil and five plant types and (ii) the results of the life cycle CO(2) analyses with the GRSs scenarios were converted to an economic value using certified emission reductions (CERs) carbon credits. Life cycle cost (LCC) analyses were performed based on these results. The results showed that when considering only the currently realized economic value, the conventional roof system is superior to the GRSs. However, the LCC analysis that included the environmental value, revealed that compared to the conventional roof system, the following six GRSs scenarios are superior (cost reduction; reduction ratio; in descending order): scenarios 13 ($195,229; 11.0%), 3 ($188,178; 10.6%), 8 ($181,558; 10.3%), 12 ($130,464; 7.4%), 2 ($124,566; 7.0%), and 7 ($113,931; 6.4%). Although the effect is relatively small in terms of cost reduction, environmental value attributes cannot be ignored in terms of the reduction ratio.

Integrating remediation and resource recovery: On the economic conditions of landfill mining.

PubMed

Frändegård, Per; Krook, Joakim; Svensson, Niclas

2015-08-01

This article analyzes the economic potential of integrating material separation and resource recovery into a landfill remediation project, and discusses the result and the largest impact factors. The analysis is done using a direct costs/revenues approach and the stochastic uncertainties are handled using Monte Carlo simulation. Two remediation scenarios are applied to a hypothetical landfill. One scenario includes only remediation, while the second scenario adds resource recovery to the remediation project. Moreover, the second scenario is divided into two cases, case A and B. In case A, the landfill tax needs to be paid for re-deposited material and the landfill holder does not own a combined heat and power plant (CHP), which leads to disposal costs in the form of gate fees. In case B, the landfill tax is waived on the re-deposited material and the landfill holder owns its own CHP. Results show that the remediation project in the first scenario costs about €23/ton. Adding resource recovery as in case A worsens the result to -€36/ton, while for case B the result improves to -€14/ton. This shows the importance of landfill tax and the access to a CHP. Other important factors for the result are the material composition in the landfill, the efficiency of the separation technology used, and the price of the saleable material. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wives without husbands: Gendered vulnerability to sexually transmitted infections among previously married women in India

PubMed Central

Walters, Kimberly; Dandona, Rakhi; Walters, Lawrence C.; Dandona, Lalit; Lakshmi, Vemu; Schneider, John A.

2013-01-01

Using population-based and family structural data from a high HIV-prevalence district of southern India, this paper considers four suggested social scenarios used to explain the positive correlation between HIV prevalence and previously married status among Indian women: I) infection from and then bereavement of an infected husband; II) abandonment after husbands learn of their wives’ HIV status; III) economic instability after becoming previously married, leading women to seek financial support through male partners; IV) the social status of being previously married exposing women to sexual harassment and predation. By also considering seroprevalence of two other common sexually transmitted infections (STI), herpes and syphilis, in a combined variable with HIV, we limit the likelihood of the first two scenarios accounting for the greater part of this correlation. Through a nuanced analysis of household residences patterns (family structure), standard of living and education, we also limit the probability that scenario three explains a greater portion of the correlation. Scenario four emerges as the most likely explanation for this correlation, recognizing that other scenarios are also possible. Further, the interdisciplinary literature on the social position of previously married women in India strongly supports the suggestion that, as a population, previously married women are sexually vulnerable in India. Previously married status as an STI risk factor requires further biosocial research and warrants concentrated public health attention. PMID:22519844

Relevant climate response tests for stratospheric aerosol injection: A combined ethical and scientific analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenferna, Georges Alexandre; Russotto, Rick D.; Tan, Amanda; Gardiner, Stephen M.; Ackerman, Thomas P.

2017-06-01

In this paper, we focus on stratospheric sulfate injection as a geoengineering scheme, and provide a combined scientific and ethical analysis of climate response tests, which are a subset of outdoor tests that would seek to impose detectable and attributable changes to climate variables on global or regional scales. We assess the current state of scientific understanding on the plausibility and scalability of climate response tests. Then, we delineate a minimal baseline against which to consider whether certain climate response tests would be relevant for a deployment scenario. Our analysis shows that some climate response tests, such as those attempting to detect changes in regional climate impacts, may not be deployable in time periods relevant to realistic geoengineering scenarios. This might pose significant challenges for justifying stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection deployment overall. We then survey some of the major ethical challenges that proposed climate response tests face. We consider what levels of confidence would be required to ethically justify approving a proposed test; whether the consequences of tests are subject to similar questions of justice, compensation, and informed consent as full-scale deployment; and whether questions of intent and hubris are morally relevant for climate response tests. We suggest further research into laboratory-based work and modeling may help to narrow the scientific uncertainties related to climate response tests, and help inform future ethical debate. However, even if such work is pursued, the ethical issues raised by proposed climate response tests are significant and manifold.

Analysis of the build-up of semi and non volatile organic compounds on urban roads.

PubMed

Mahbub, Parvez; Ayoko, Godwin A; Goonetilleke, Ashantha; Egodawatta, Prasanna

2011-04-01

Vehicular traffic in urban areas may adversely affect urban water quality through the build-up of traffic generated semi and non volatile organic compounds (SVOCs and NVOCs) on road surfaces. The characterisation of the build-up processes is the key to developing mitigation measures for the removal of such pollutants from urban stormwater. An in-depth analysis of the build-up of SVOCs and NVOCs was undertaken in the Gold Coast region in Australia. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Multicriteria Decision tools such as PROMETHEE and GAIA were employed to understand the SVOC and NVOC build-up under combined traffic scenarios of low, moderate, and high traffic in different land uses. It was found that congestion in the commercial areas and use of lubricants and motor oils in the industrial areas were the main sources of SVOCs and NVOCs on urban roads, respectively. The contribution from residential areas to the build-up of such pollutants was hardly noticeable. It was also revealed through this investigation that the target SVOCs and NVOCs were mainly attached to particulate fractions of 75-300 μm whilst the redistribution of coarse fractions due to vehicle activity mainly occurred in the >300 μm size range. Lastly, under combined traffic scenario, moderate traffic with average daily traffic ranging from 2300 to 5900 and average congestion of 0.47 were found to dominate SVOC and NVOC build-up on roads. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clusters of community exposure to coastal flooding hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios—implications for adaptation networks in the San Francisco Bay region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hummel, Michelle; Wood, Nathan J.; Schweikert, Amy; Stacey, Mark T.; Jones, Jeanne; Barnard, Patrick L.; Erikson, Li H.

2018-01-01

Sea level is projected to rise over the coming decades, further increasing the extent of flooding hazards in coastal communities. Efforts to address potential impacts from climate-driven coastal hazards have called for collaboration among communities to strengthen the application of best practices. However, communities currently lack practical tools for identifying potential partner communities based on similar hazard exposure characteristics. This study uses statistical cluster analysis to identify similarities in community exposure to flooding hazards for a suite of sea level rise and storm scenarios. We demonstrate this approach using 63 jurisdictions in the San Francisco Bay region of California (USA) and compare 21 distinct exposure variables related to residents, employees, and structures for six hazard scenario combinations of sea level rise and storms. Results indicate that cluster analysis can provide an effective mechanism for identifying community groupings. Cluster compositions changed based on the selected societal variables and sea level rise scenarios, suggesting that a community could participate in multiple networks to target specific issues or policy interventions. The proposed clustering approach can serve as a data-driven foundation to help communities identify other communities with similar adaptation challenges and to enhance regional efforts that aim to facilitate adaptation planning and investment prioritization.

Feeding nine billion people sustainably: conserving land and water through shifting diets and changes in technologies.

PubMed

Springer, Nathaniel P; Duchin, Faye

2014-04-15

In the early 21st century the extensive clearing of forestland, fresh water scarcity, and sharp rises in the price of food have become causes for concern. These concerns may be substantially exacerbated over the next few decades by the need to provide improved diets for a growing global population. This study applies an inter-regional input-output model of the world economy, the World Trade Model, for analysis of alternative scenarios about satisfying future food requirements by midcentury. The scenario analysis indicates that relying only on more extensive use of arable land and fresh water would require clearing forests and exacerbating regional water scarcities. However, a combination of less resource-intensive diets and improved agricultural productivity, the latter especially in Africa, could make it possible to use these resources sustainably while also constraining increases in food prices. Unlike the scenario outcomes from other kinds of economic models, our framework reveals the potential for a decisive shift of production and export of agricultural products away from developed countries toward Africa and Latin America. Although the assumed changes in diets and technologies may not be realizable without incentives, our results suggest that these regions exhibit comparative advantages in agricultural production due to their large remaining resource endowments and their potential for higher yields.

Generation of future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment by applying bias-correction techniques, delta-change approaches and stochastic Weather Generators at different spatial scale. Analysis of their influence on basic and drought statistics.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio

2017-04-01

Assessing impacts of potential future climate change scenarios in precipitation and temperature is essential to design adaptive strategies in water resources systems. The objective of this work is to analyze the possibilities of different statistical downscaling methods to generate future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment from historical data and the available climate models simulations performed in the frame of the CORDEX EU project. The initial information employed to define these downscaling approaches are the historical climatic data (taken from the Spain02 project for the period 1971-2000 with a spatial resolution of 12.5 Km) and the future series provided by climatic models in the horizon period 2071-2100 . We have used information coming from nine climate model simulations (obtained from five different Regional climate models (RCM) nested to four different Global Climate Models (GCM)) from the European CORDEX project. In our application we have focused on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For each RCM we have generated future climate series for the period 2071-2100 by applying two different approaches, bias correction and delta change, and five different transformation techniques (first moment correction, first and second moment correction, regression functions, quantile mapping using distribution derived transformation and quantile mapping using empirical quantiles) for both of them. Ensembles of the obtained series were proposed to obtain more representative potential future climate scenarios to be employed to study potential impacts. In this work we propose a non-equifeaseble combination of the future series giving more weight to those coming from models (delta change approaches) or combination of models and techniques that provides better approximation to the basic and drought statistic of the historical data. A multi-objective analysis using basic statistics (mean, standard deviation and asymmetry coefficient) and droughts statistics (duration, magnitude and intensity) has been performed to identify which models are better in terms of goodness of fit to reproduce the historical series. The drought statistics have been obtained from the Standard Precipitation index (SPI) series using the Theory of Runs. This analysis allows discriminate the best RCM and the best combination of model and correction technique in the bias-correction method. We have also analyzed the possibilities of using different Stochastic Weather Generators to approximate the basic and droughts statistics of the historical series. These analyses have been performed in our case study in a lumped and in a distributed way in order to assess its sensibility to the spatial scale. The statistic of the future temperature series obtained with different ensemble options are quite homogeneous, but the precipitation shows a higher sensibility to the adopted method and spatial scale. The global increment in the mean temperature values are 31.79 %, 31.79 %, 31.03 % and 31.74 % for the distributed bias-correction, distributed delta-change, lumped bias-correction and lumped delta-change ensembles respectively and in the precipitation they are -25.48 %, -28.49 %, -26.42 % and -27.35% respectively. Acknowledgments: This research work has been partially supported by the GESINHIMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R) with Spanish MINECO funds. We would also like to thank Spain02 and CORDEX projects for the data provided for this study and the R package qmap.

Willingness to pay for a new drug delivery in Parkinson patients.

PubMed

Lökk, Johan; Olofsson, Sara; Persson, Ulf

2014-01-01

The Swedish reimbursement system operates a system where prices are set based on the expected value to the consumer. This value can be measured using willingness to pay (WTP). To assess Parkinson's disease (PD) patients' WTP for newly developed microtablets of levodopa in combination with a drug-delivering electronic device (M/E) compared to standard treatment with levodopa in combination with the COMT (catechol-O-methyl transferase)-inhibitor entacapone (L/e). A total of 2,000 randomly included PD patients had a postal questionnaire covering demographics, disease-specific issues, views on medication and WTP in different hypothetical scenarios. The first scenario was M/E with no change in effects or side effects; the second scenario was M/E with same effect and less side effects; and the third scenario was M/E with improved effect and less side effects. These scenarios were coupled to different costs to choose from. A total of 999 patients (50%) responded, mean age of 71 years and a mean PD duration of 9 years. Of all respondents, 50% preferred M/E before L/e in scenario one with increasing preference to scenario three. The average monthly WTP among all respondents in scenario one was SEK 230 and SEK 226 in L/e, both with an almost longitudinal doubling up to scenario three. Duration of PD-related symptoms, high education, and high medication intake implied a higher WTP in all scenarios in contrast to age, sex, and extra doses of levodopa. WTP for M/E increased gradually with high medication intake and education as well as with expected increased reduction of PD symptoms.

The role of patient simulation and incident reporting in the development and evaluation of medical devices and the training of their users.

PubMed

Dieckmann, P; Rall, M; Ostergaard, D

2009-01-01

We describe how simulation and incident reporting can be used in combination to make the interaction between people, (medical) technology and organisation safer for patients and users. We provide the background rationale for our conceptual ideas and apply the concepts to the analysis of an actual incident report. Simulation can serve as a laboratory to analyse such cases and to create relevant and effective training scenarios based on such analyses. We will describe a methodological framework for analysing simulation scenarios in a way that allows discovering and discussing mismatches between conceptual models of the device design and mental models users hold about the device and its use. We further describe how incident reporting systems can be used as one source of data to conduct the necessary needs analyses - both for training and further needs for closer analysis of specific devices or some of their special features or modes during usability analyses.

Spectral analysis of the binary nucleus of the planetary nebula Hen 2-428 - first results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finch, Nicolle L.; Reindl, Nicole; Barstow, Martin A.; Casewell, Sarah L.; Geier, Stephan; Bertolami, Marcelo M. Miller; Taubenberger, Stefan

2018-04-01

Identifying progenitor systems for the double-degenerate scenario is crucial to check the reliability of type Ia supernovae as cosmological standard candles. Santander-Garcia et al. (2015) claimed that Hen 2-428 has a doubledegenerate core whose combined mass significantly exceeds the Chandrasekhar limit. Together with the short orbital period (4.2 hours), the authors concluded that the system should merge within a Hubble time triggering a type Ia supernova event. Garcia-Berro et al. (2016) explored alternative scenarios to explain the observational evidence, as the high mass conclusion is highly unlikely within predictions from stellar evolution theory. They conclude that the evidence supporting the supernova progenitor status of the system is premature. Here we present the first quantitative spectral analysis of Hen 2-428which allows us to derive the effective temperatures, surface gravities and helium abundance of the two CSPNe based on state-of-the-art, non-LTE model atmospheres. These results provide constrains for further studies of this particularly interesting system.

Optimized ISRU Propellants for Propulsion and Power Needs for Future Mars Colonization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, Eric E.; Gustafson, Robert J.; Gramer, Daniel J.; Chiaverini, Martin J.; Teeter, Ronald R.; White, Brant C.

2003-01-01

In recent studies (Rice, 2000, 2002) conducted by ORBITEC for the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (NIAC), we conceptualized systems and an evolving optimized architecture for producing and utilizing Mars-based in-situ space resources utilization (ISRU) propellant combinations for future Mars colonization. The propellants are to be used to support the propulsion and power systems for ground and flight vehicles. The key aspect of the study was to show the benefits of ISRU, develop an analysis methodology, as well as provide guidance to propellant system choices in the future based upon what is known today about Mars. The study time frame included an early unmanned and manned exploration period (through 2040) and two colonization scenarios that are postulated to occur from 2040 to 2090. As part of this feasibility study, ORBITEC developed two different Mars colonization scenarios: a low case that ends with a 100-person colony (an Antarctica analogy) and a high case that ends with a 10,000-person colony (a Mars terraforming scenario). A population growth model, mission traffic model, and infrastructure model were developed for each scenario to better understand the requirements of future Mars colonies. Additionally, propellant and propulsion systems design concepts were developed. Cost models were also developed to allow comparison of the different ISRU propellant approaches. This paper summarizes the overall results of the study. ISRU proved to be a key enabler for these colonization missions. Carbon monoxide and oxygen, proved to be the most cost-effective ISRU propellant combination. The entire final reports Phase I and II) and all the details can be found at the NIAC website www.niac.usra.edu.

Analysis of Active Sensor Discrimination Requirements for Various Defense Missile Defense Scenarios Final Report 1999(99-ERD-080)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ledebuhr, A.G.; Ng, L.C.; Gaughan, R.J.

2000-02-15

During FY99, we have explored and analyzed a combined passive/active sensor concept to support the advanced discrimination requirements for various missile defense scenario. The idea is to combine multiple IR spectral channels with an imaging LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) behind a common optical system. The imaging LIDAR would itself consist of at least two channels; one at the fundamental laser wavelength (e.g., the 1.064 {micro}m for Nd:YAG) and one channel at the frequency doubled (at 532 nm for Nd:YAG). two-color laser output would, for example, allow the longer wavelength for a direct detection time of flight ranger and anmore » active imaging channel at the shorter wavelength. The LIDAR can function as a high-resolution 2D spatial image either passively or actively with laser illumination. Advances in laser design also offer three color (frequency tripled) systems, high rep-rate operation, better pumping efficiencies that can provide longer distance acquisition, and ranging for enhanced discrimination phenomenology. New detector developments can enhance the performance and operation of both LIDAR channels. A real time data fusion approach that combines multi-spectral IR phenomenology with LIDAR imagery can improve both discrimination and aim-point selection capability.« less

Integrating software architectures for distributed simulations and simulation analysis communities.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldsby, Michael E.; Fellig, Daniel; Linebarger, John Michael

2005-10-01

The one-year Software Architecture LDRD (No.79819) was a cross-site effort between Sandia California and Sandia New Mexico. The purpose of this research was to further develop and demonstrate integrating software architecture frameworks for distributed simulation and distributed collaboration in the homeland security domain. The integrated frameworks were initially developed through the Weapons of Mass Destruction Decision Analysis Center (WMD-DAC), sited at SNL/CA, and the National Infrastructure Simulation & Analysis Center (NISAC), sited at SNL/NM. The primary deliverable was a demonstration of both a federation of distributed simulations and a federation of distributed collaborative simulation analysis communities in the context ofmore » the same integrated scenario, which was the release of smallpox in San Diego, California. To our knowledge this was the first time such a combination of federations under a single scenario has ever been demonstrated. A secondary deliverable was the creation of the standalone GroupMeld{trademark} collaboration client, which uses the GroupMeld{trademark} synchronous collaboration framework. In addition, a small pilot experiment that used both integrating frameworks allowed a greater range of crisis management options to be performed and evaluated than would have been possible without the use of the frameworks.« less

Validation of pharmaceutical potency determinations by quantitative nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometry.

PubMed

Webster, Gregory K; Marsden, Ian; Pommerening, Cynthia A; Tyrakowski, Christina M

2010-05-01

With the changing development paradigms in the pharmaceutical industry, laboratories are challenged to release materials for clinical studies with rapid turnaround times. To minimize cost demands, many businesses are looking to develop ways of using early Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) materials of active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) for Good Laboratory Practice (GLP) toxicology studies. To make this happen, the analytical laboratory releases the material by one of three scenarios: (1) holding the GLP release until full GMP testing is ready, (2) issuing a separate lot number for a portion of the GMP material and releasing the material for GLP use, or (3) releasing the lot of material for GLP using alternate (equivalent) method(s) not specified for GMP release testing. Many companies are finding the third scenario to be advantageous in terms of cost and efficiency through the use of quantitative nuclear magnetic resonance (q-NMR). The use of q-NMR has proved to be a single-point replacement for routine early development testing that previously combined elements of identity testing, chromatographic assay, moisture analysis, residual solvent analysis, and elemental analysis. This study highlights that q-NMR can be validated to meet current regulatory analytical method guidelines for routine pharmaceutical analysis.

Impacts of changes in climate and land use/land cover under IPCC RCP scenarios on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Jinsoo; Choi, Jisun; Choi, Chuluong; Park, Soyoung

2013-05-01

This study examined the separate and combined impacts of future changes in climate and land use/land cover (LULC) on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, South Korea, using the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). First, a LULC change model was developed using RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 storylines and logistic regression. Three scenarios (climate change only, LULC change only, and climate and LULC change combined) were established, and the streamflow in future periods under these scenarios was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Each scenario showed distinct seasonal variations in streamflow. Under climate change only, streamflow increased in spring and winter but decreased in summer and autumn, whereas LULC change increased high flow during wet periods but decreased low flow in dry periods. Although the LULC change had less effect than climate change on the changes in streamflow, the effect of LULC change on streamflow was significant. The result for the combined scenario was similar to that of the climate change only scenario, but with larger seasonal changes in streamflow. Although the effects of LULC change were smaller than those caused by climate change, LULC changes may heighten the problems of increased seasonal variability in streamflow caused by climate change. The results obtained in this study provide further insight into the availability of future streamflow and can aid in water resource management planning in the study area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing water quality of the Chesapeake Bay by the impact of sea level rise and warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, P.; Linker, L.; Wang, H.; Bhatt, G.; Yactayo, G.; Hinson, K.; Tian, R.

2017-08-01

The influence of sea level rise and warming on circulation and water quality of the Chesapeake Bay under projected climate conditions in 2050 were estimated by computer simulation. Four estuarine circulation scenarios in the estuary were run using the same watershed load in 1991-2000 period. They are, 1) the Base Scenario, which represents the current climate condition, 2) a Sea Level Rise Scenario, 3) a Warming Scenario, and 4) a combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario. With a 1.6-1.9°C increase in monthly air temperatures in the Warming Scenario, water temperature in the Bay is estimated to increase by 0.8-1°C. Summer average anoxic volume is estimated to increase 1.4 percent compared to the Base Scenario, because of an increase in algal blooms in the spring and summer, promotion of oxygen consumptive processes, and an increase of stratification. However, a 0.5-meter Sea Level Rise Scenario results in a 12 percent reduction of anoxic volume. This is mainly due to increased estuarine circulation that promotes oxygen-rich sea water intrusion in lower layers. The combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario results in a 10.8 percent reduction of anoxic volume. Global warming increases precipitation and consequently increases nutrient loads from the watershed by approximately 5-7 percent. A scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and current estuarine circulation patterns yielded a 19 percent increase in summer anoxic volume, while a scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and modified estuarine circulation patterns by the aforementioned sea level rise and warming yielded a 6 percent increase in summer anoxic volume. Impacts on phytoplankton, sediments, and water clarity were also analysed.

Final Report: Assessment of Combined Heat and Power Premium Power Applications in California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Norwood, Zack; Lipman, Tim; Marnay, Chris

2008-09-30

This report analyzes the current economic and environmental performance of combined heat and power (CHP) systems in power interruption intolerant commercial facilities. Through a series of three case studies, key trade-offs are analyzed with regard to the provision of black-out ridethrough capability with the CHP systems and the resutling ability to avoid the need for at least some diesel backup generator capacity located at the case study sites. Each of the selected sites currently have a CHP or combined heating, cooling, and power (CCHP) system in addition to diesel backup generators. In all cases the CHP/CCHP system have a smallmore » fraction of the electrical capacity of the diesel generators. Although none of the selected sites currently have the ability to run the CHP systems as emergency backup power, all could be retrofitted to provide this blackout ride-through capability, and new CHP systems can be installed with this capability. The following three sites/systems were used for this analysis: (1) Sierra Nevada Brewery - Using 1MW of installed Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells operating on a combination of digestor gas (from the beer brewing process) and natural gas, this facility can produce electricty and heat for the brewery and attached bottling plant. The major thermal load on-site is to keep the brewing tanks at appropriate temperatures. (2) NetApp Data Center - Using 1.125 MW of Hess Microgen natural gas fired reciprocating engine-generators, with exhaust gas and jacket water heat recovery attached to over 300 tons of of adsorption chillers, this combined cooling and power system provides electricity and cooling to a data center with a 1,200 kW peak electrical load. (3) Kaiser Permanente Hayward Hospital - With 180kW of Tecogen natural gas fired reciprocating engine-generators this CHP system generates steam for space heating, and hot water for a city hospital. For all sites, similar assumptions are made about the economic and technological constraints of the power generation system. Using the Distributed Energy Resource Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM) developed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we model three representative scenarios and find the optimal operation scheduling, yearly energy cost, and energy technology investments for each scenario below: Scenario 1 - Diesel generators and CHP/CCHP equipment as installed in the current facility. Scenario 1 represents a baseline forced investment in currently installed energy equipment. Scenario 2 - Existing CHP equipment installed with blackout ride-through capability to replace approximately the same capacity of diesel generators. In Scenario 2 the cost of the replaced diesel units is saved, however additional capital cost for the controls and switchgear for blackout ride-through capability is necessary. Scenario 3 - Fully optimized site analysis, allowing DER-CAM to specify the number of diesel and CHP/CCHP units (with blackout ride-through capability) that should be installed ignoring any constraints on backup generation. Scenario 3 allows DER-CAM to optimize scheduling and number of generation units from the currently available technologies at a particular site. The results of this analysis, using real data to model the optimal schedulding of hypothetical and actual CHP systems for a brewery, data center, and hospital, lead to some interesting conclusions. First, facilities with high heating loads will typically prove to be the most appropriate for CHP installation from a purely economic standpoint. Second, absorption/adsorption cooling systems may only be economically feasible if the technology for these chillers can increase above current best system efficiency. At a coefficient of performance (COP) of 0.8, for instance, an adsorption chiller paired with a natural gas generator with waste heat recovery at a facility with large cooling loads, like a data center, will cost no less on a yearly basis than purchasing electricity and natural gas directly from a utility. Third, at marginal additional cost, if the reliability of CHP systems proves to be at least as high as diesel generators (which we expect to be the case), the CHP system could replace the diesel generator at little or no additional cost. This is true if the thermal to electric (relative) load of those facilities was already high enough to economically justify a CHP system. Last, in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, the modeled CHP and CCHP systems provide some degree of decreased emissions relative to systems with less CHP installed. The emission reduction can be up to 10% in the optimized case (Scenario 3) in the application with the highest relative thermal load, in this case the hospital. Although these results should be qualified because they are only based on the three case studies, the general results and lessons learned are expected to be applicable across a broad range of potential and existing CCHP systems.« less

Synthetic fuels development in Kentucky: Four scenarios for an energy future as constructed from lessons of the past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musulin, Mike, II

The continued failure of synthetic fuels development in the United States to achieve commercialization has been documented through the sporadic periods of mounting corporate and government enthusiasm and high levels of research and development efforts. Four periods of enthusiasm at the national level were followed by waning intervals of shrinking financial support and sagging R&D work. The continuing cycle of mobilization and stagnation has had a corresponding history in Kentucky. To better understand the potential and the pitfalls of this type of technological development the history of synthetic fuels development in the United States is presented as background, with a more detailed analysis of synfuels development in Kentucky. The first two periods of interest in synthetic fuels immediately after the Second World War and in the 1950s did not result in any proposed plants for Kentucky, but the third and fourth periods of interest created a great deal of activity. A theoretically grounded case study is utilized in this research project to create four different scenarios for the future of synthetic fuels development. The Kentucky experience is utilized in this case study because a fifth incarnation of synthetic fuels development has been proposed for the state in the form of an integrated gasification combined cycle power plant (IGCC) to utilize coal and refuse derived fuel (RDF). The project has been awarded a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy Clean Coal Technology program. From an examination and analysis of these periods of interest and the subsequent dwindling of interest and participation, four alternative scenarios are constructed. A synfuels breakthrough scenario is described whereby IGCC becomes a viable part of the country's energy future. A multiplex scenario describes how IGCC becomes a particular niche in energy production. The status quo scenario describes how the old patterns of project failure repeat themselves. The fourth scenario describes how synfuels and other conventional energy sources are rejected in favor of conservation, use of nuclear facilities, and use of alternative fuels.

Evaluating Uncertainty in GHG Emission Scenarios: Mapping IAM Outlooks With an Energy System Phase Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritchie, W. J.; Dowlatabadi, H.

2017-12-01

Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing (RF). Pathways for long-run fossil energy use that map to total forcing outcomes are commonly depicted with integrated assessment models (IAMs). IAMs structure outlooks for 21st-century emissions with various theories for developments in demographics, economics, land-use, energy markets and energy service demands. These concepts are applied to understand global changes in two key factors relevant for scenarios of carbon emissions: total energy use (E) this century and the carbon intensity of that energy (F/E). A simple analytical and graphical approach can also illustrate the full range of outcomes for these variables to determine if IAMs provide sufficient coverage of the uncertainty space for future energy use. In this talk, we present a method for understanding uncertainties relevant to RF scenario components in a phase space. The phase space of a dynamic system represents significant factors as axes to capture the full range of physically possible states. A two-dimensional phase space of E and F/E presents the possible system states that can lead to various levels of total 21st-century carbon emissions. Once defined in this way, a phase space of these energy system coordinates allows for rapid characterization of large IAM scenario sets with machine learning techniques. This phase space method is applied to the levels of RF described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The resulting RCP phase space identifies characteristics of the baseline energy system outlooks provided by IAMs for IPCC Working Group III. We conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the major features of IAM scenarios for each RCP range. Cluster analysis finds the IAM scenarios in AR5 illustrate RCPs with consistent combinations of energy resources. This suggests IAM scenarios understate uncertainty ranges for future fossil energy combustion and are overly constrained, implying it is likely easier to achieve a 1.5˚ climate policy goal than previously demonstrated.

Effects of changes along the risk chain on flood risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duha Metin, Ayse; Apel, Heiko; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Guse, Björn; Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Interactions of hydrological and socio-economic factors shape flood disaster risk. For this reason, assessment of flood risk ideally takes into account the whole flood risk chain from atmospheric processes, through the catchment and river system processes to the damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Since very different processes at various scales are interacting along the flood risk, the impact of the single components is rather unclear. However for flood risk management, it is required to know the controlling factor of flood damages. The present study, using the flood-prone Mulde catchment in Germany, discusses the sensitivity of flood risk to disturbances along the risk chain: How do disturbances propagate through the risk chain? How do different disturbances combine or conflict and affect flood risk? In this sensitivity analysis, the five components of the flood risk change are included. These are climate, catchment, river system, exposure and vulnerability. A model framework representing the complete risk chain is combined with observational data to understand how the sensitivities evolve along the risk chain by considering three plausible change scenarios for each of five components. The flood risk is calculated by using the Regional Flood Model (RFM) which is based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, 1D river network, 2D hinterland inundation and damage estimation models. The sensitivity analysis covers more than 240 scenarios with different combinations of the five components. It is investigated how changes in different components affect risk indicators, such as the risk curve and expected annual damage (EAD). In conclusion, it seems that changes in exposure and vulnerability seem to outweigh changes in hazard.

Downcycling versus recycling of construction and demolition waste: Combining LCA and LCC to support sustainable policy making.

PubMed

Di Maria, Andrea; Eyckmans, Johan; Van Acker, Karel

2018-05-01

Urgent solutions are needed in Europe to deal with construction and demolition waste (CDW). EU policy has contributed to significantly reducing the amount of CDW going to landfill, but most of the effort has been put in downcycling practices. Therefore, further policies are needed to stimulate high-quality recycling of CDW. The present paper presents a combined life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC) methodologies to analyse the environmental and the economic drivers in four alternative CDW end-of-life scenarios in the region of Flanders, in Belgium. The four analysed alternatives are (i) landfilling, (ii) downcycling, (iii) advanced recycling and (iv) recycling after selective demolition. LCA results show that landiflling is the scenario having the highest environmental impacts in terms of person equivalent (PE), followed by downcycling and recycling (-36%) and recycling after selective demolition (-59%). The decrease in environmental impacts is mostly due to the avoided landfilling of CDW and the recovery of materials from selective demolition. LCC results indicate that landfilling is the scenario bearing the highest total economic costs. This is due to the high landfill tax in Flanders. The recycling after selective demolition bears the second highest cost. The increase of high-quality CDW recycling can significantly reduce the overall environmental impact of the system. Implementing a high landfill tax, increasing the gate fee to the recycling plant, and boosting the sales price of recycled aggregates are the most effective drivers to facilitate a transition towards a more sustainable CDW management system. The paper demonstrates that the combined LCA and LCC results can highlight the environmental and economic drivers in CDW management. The results of the combined analysis can help policymakers to promote the aspects contributing to sustainability and to limit the ones creating a barrier. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combined Dielectrophoresis and Impedance Systems for Bacteria Analysis in Microfluidic On-Chip Platforms

PubMed Central

Páez-Avilés, Cristina; Juanola-Feliu, Esteve; Punter-Villagrasa, Jaime; del Moral Zamora, Beatriz; Homs-Corbera, Antoni; Colomer-Farrarons, Jordi; Miribel-Català, Pere Lluís; Samitier, Josep

2016-01-01

Bacteria concentration and detection is time-consuming in regular microbiology procedures aimed to facilitate the detection and analysis of these cells at very low concentrations. Traditional methods are effective but often require several days to complete. This scenario results in low bioanalytical and diagnostic methodologies with associated increased costs and complexity. In recent years, the exploitation of the intrinsic electrical properties of cells has emerged as an appealing alternative approach for concentrating and detecting bacteria. The combination of dielectrophoresis (DEP) and impedance analysis (IA) in microfluidic on-chip platforms could be key to develop rapid, accurate, portable, simple-to-use and cost-effective microfluidic devices with a promising impact in medicine, public health, agricultural, food control and environmental areas. The present document reviews recent DEP and IA combined approaches and the latest relevant improvements focusing on bacteria concentration and detection, including selectivity, sensitivity, detection time, and conductivity variation enhancements. Furthermore, this review analyses future trends and challenges which need to be addressed in order to successfully commercialize these platforms resulting in an adequate social return of public-funded investments. PMID:27649201

Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From thesemore » five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.« less

From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

1994-03-01

The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

Evaluation of co-benefits from combined climate change and air pollution reduction strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leitao, Joana; Van Dingenen, Rita; Dentener, Frank; Rao, Shilpa

2014-05-01

The connection of climate change and air pollution is becoming more relevant in the process of policy making and implementation of emission control strategies because of resulting co-benefits and trade-offs. Some sectors, such as fossil fuel combustion, are sources of both pollutants (NOx and PM) as well as greenhouse gas (CO2). Additionally, the use of wood burning as biofuel to reduce climate impact may in fact deteriorate air quality. Furthermore, several air pollutants are important radiative forcers and regulating their emissions impacts on climate. It is evident that both problems need to be undertaken with a common strategy and the existence of cross-policy with co-benefits may encourage their implementation. The LIMITS FP7 project (http://www.feem-project.net/limits/index.html) was designed with the main goal of assessing strategies for reduction of GHG emissions so that the 2°C target can be achieved. The work developed focus on the evaluation of the implementation of strategies analysing several aspects of different scenarios, namely: the feasibility of low carbon scenarios in terms of available technologies and infrastructure, the required financial mechanisms, and also the co-benefits regarding energy security, economic development and air pollution. For the latter, five integrated assessment models (IAMs) provided greenhouse gases and pollutant emission values for several scenarios. These were based on air pollution scenarios defined according to stringency and implementation of future global legislation. They which were also combined with 2 climate policy scenarios (no climate policy and 2.8 W/m2 target). The former are mostly focused on non-climate policies and technical control measures for emissions of air pollutants, such as PM2.5, NOx and SO2, with their emission factors harmonized between the IAMs. With the global air quality source-receptor model TM5-FASST the impact of the resulting emissions was analysed and the co-benefits of combined climate and air pollution strategies assessed. The TM5-FASST tool allows for a fast screening of emission scenario variants and the resulting impacts can be investigated by source country, source sector level or by precursor. Developed at JRC, this model is a linearized version derived from the full chemical transport model TM5-CTM, taking as input pollutants emissions from 56 source regions with global coverage. The resulting pollutant concentrations are determined and their associated effect on human health (from PM2.5 and O3), the yield loss of damaged crops (from O3), and CO2eq of short lived climate forcers are quantified. The analysis of the LIMITS scenarios allows for impact assessment of alternate air pollution control assumptions on pollutant emission trajectories out to 2030 and 2050. The results show that stringent climate policies provide a significant air quality benefit compared to current legislation air quality policy. The identified benefits and trade-offs provide a strong incentive for the implementation of combined national policy focusing both on climate change and air pollution.

Screening approach for identifying candidate drugs and drug-drug interactions related to hip fracture risk in persons with Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Tolppanen, Anna-Maija; Taipale, Heidi; Koponen, Marjaana; Tanskanen, Antti; Lavikainen, Piia; Paananen, Jussi; Tiihonen, Jari; Hartikainen, Sirpa

2017-08-01

To assess whether a "drugome-wide" screen with case-crossover design is a feasible approach for identifying candidate drugs and drug-drug interactions. All community-dwelling residents of Finland who received a clinically verified Alzheimer disease diagnosis in 2005 to 2011 and experienced incident hip fracture (HF) afterwards (N = 4851). Three scenarios were used to test the sensitivity of this approach (1) hazard period 0 to 30 and control period 31 to 61 days before HF, (2) hazard period 0 to 30 and control period 336 to 366 days before HF, and (3) hazard period 0 to 14 and control period 16 to 30 days before HF. Nine, 44, and 5 drugs were associated with increased HF risk and 8, 23, and 4 with decreased risk in scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Six drugs were identified with scenario 1 only and 54 and 1 with scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Only six drugs (metoprolol, simvastatin, trimethoprim, codeine combinations, fentanyl, and paracetamol) were associated with HF in all scenarios, four with 1 and 2 (cefalexin, buprenorphine, olanzapine, and memantine), and one with 1 and 3 (enalapril) or 2 and 3 (ciprofloxacin). The direction of associations was the same in all/both scenarios. The interaction results were equally versatile, with hydroxocobalamin*oxazepam being the only interaction observed in all scenarios. Case-crossover analysis is a potential approach for identifying candidate drugs and drug-drug interactions associated with adverse events as it implicitly controls for fixed confounders. The results are highly dependent on applied hazard and control periods, but the choice of periods can help in targeting the analyses to different phases of drug use. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

TMS for Instantiating a Knowledge Base With Incomplete Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, Mark

2007-01-01

A computer program that belongs to the class known among software experts as output truth-maintenance-systems (output TMSs) has been devised as one of a number of software tools for reducing the size of the knowledge base that must be searched during execution of artificial- intelligence software of the rule-based inference-engine type in a case in which data are missing. This program determines whether the consequences of activation of two or more rules can be combined without causing a logical inconsistency. For example, in a case involving hypothetical scenarios that could lead to turning a given device on or off, the program determines whether a scenario involving a given combination of rules could lead to turning the device both on and off at the same time, in which case that combination of rules would not be included in the scenario.

Computer-aided testing of pilot response to critical in-flight events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giffin, W. C.; Rockwell, T. H.

1984-01-01

This research on pilot response to critical in-flight events employs a unique methodology including an interactive computer-aided scenario-testing system. Navigation displays, instrument-panel displays, and assorted textual material are presented on a touch-sensitive CRT screen. Problem diagnosis scenarios, destination-diversion scenarios and combined destination/diagnostic tests are available. A complete time history of all data inquiries and responses is maintained. Sample results of diagnosis scenarios obtained from testing 38 licensed pilots are presented and discussed.

Retention payoff-based cost per day open regression equations: Application in a user-friendly decision support tool for investment analysis of automated estrus detection technologies.

PubMed

Dolecheck, K A; Heersche, G; Bewley, J M

2016-12-01

Assessing the economic implications of investing in automated estrus detection (AED) technologies can be overwhelming for dairy producers. The objectives of this study were to develop new regression equations for estimating the cost per day open (DO) and to apply the results to create a user-friendly, partial budget, decision support tool for investment analysis of AED technologies. In the resulting decision support tool, the end user can adjust herd-specific inputs regarding general management, current reproductive management strategies, and the proposed AED system. Outputs include expected DO, reproductive cull rate, net present value, and payback period for the proposed AED system. Utility of the decision support tool was demonstrated with an example dairy herd created using data from DairyMetrics (Dairy Records Management Systems, Raleigh, NC), Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (Columbia, MO), and published literature. Resulting herd size, rolling herd average milk production, milk price, and feed cost were 323 cows, 10,758kg, $0.41/kg, and $0.20/kg of dry matter, respectively. Automated estrus detection technologies with 2 levels of initial system cost (low: $5,000 vs. high: $10,000), tag price (low: $50 vs. high: $100), and estrus detection rate (low: 60% vs. high: 80%) were compared over a 7-yr investment period. Four scenarios were considered in a demonstration of the investment analysis tool: (1) a herd using 100% visual observation for estrus detection before adopting 100% AED, (2) a herd using 100% visual observation before adopting 75% AED and 25% visual observation, (3) a herd using 100% timed artificial insemination (TAI) before adopting 100% AED, and (4) a herd using 100% TAI before adopting 75% AED and 25% TAI. Net present value in scenarios 1 and 2 was always positive, indicating a positive investment situation. Net present value in scenarios 3 and 4 was always positive in combinations using a $50 tag price, and in scenario 4, the $5,000, $100, and 80% combination. Overall, the payback period ranged from 1.6 yr to greater than 10 yr. Investment analysis demonstration results were highly dependent on assumptions, especially AED system initial investment and labor costs. Dairy producers can use herd-specific inputs with the cost per day open regression equations and the decision support tool to estimate individual herd results. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Flood-inundation and flood-mitigation modeling of the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek Watershed in West Branch, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cigrand, Charles V.

2018-03-26

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the city of West Branch and the Herbert Hoover National Historic Site of the National Park Service assessed flood-mitigation scenarios within the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek watershed. The scenarios are intended to demonstrate several means of decreasing peak streamflows and improving the conveyance of overbank flows from the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek and its tributary Hoover Creek where they flow through the city and the Herbert Hoover National Historic Site located within the city.Hydrologic and hydraulic models of the watershed were constructed to assess the flood-mitigation scenarios. To accomplish this, the models used the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) version 4.2 to simulate the amount of runoff and streamflow produced from single rain events. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) version 5.0 was then used to construct an unsteady-state model that may be used for routing streamflows, mapping areas that may be inundated during floods, and simulating the effects of different measures taken to decrease the effects of floods on people and infrastructure.Both models were calibrated to three historic rainfall events that produced peak streamflows ranging between the 2-year and 10-year flood-frequency recurrence intervals at the USGS streamgage (05464942) on Hoover Creek. The historic rainfall events were calibrated by using data from two USGS streamgages along with surveyed high-water marks from one of the events. The calibrated HEC–HMS model was then used to simulate streamflows from design rainfall events of 24-hour duration ranging from a 20-percent to a 1-percent annual exceedance probability. These simulated streamflows were incorporated into the HEC–RAS model.The unsteady-state HEC–RAS model was calibrated to represent existing conditions within the watershed. HEC–RAS model simulations with the existing conditions and streamflows from the design rainfall events were then done to serve as a baseline for evaluating flood-mitigation scenarios. After these simulations were completed, three different flood-mitigation scenarios were developed with HEC–RAS: a detention-storage scenario, a conveyance improvement scenario, and a combination of both. In the detention-storage scenario, four in-channel detention structures were placed upstream from the city of West Branch to attenuate peak streamflows. To investigate possible improvements to conveying floodwaters through the city of West Branch, a section of abandoned railroad embankment and an old truss bridge were removed in the model, because these structures were producing backwater areas during flooding events. The third scenario combines the detention and conveyance scenarios so their joint efficiency could be evaluated. The scenarios with the design rainfall events were run in the HEC–RAS model so their flood-mitigation effects could be analyzed across a wide range of flood magnitudes.

Runoff scenarios of the Ötz catchment (Tyrol, Austria) considering climate change driven changes of the cryosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helfricht, Kay; Schneeberger, Klaus; Welebil, Irene; Schöber, Johannes; Huss, Matthias; Formayer, Herbert; Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneider, Katrin

2014-05-01

The seasonal distribution of runoff in alpine catchments is markedly influenced by the cryospheric contribution (snow and ice). Long-term climate change will alter these reservoirs and consequently have an impact on the water balance. Glacierized catchments like the Ötztal (Tyrol, Austria) are particularly sensitive to changes in the cryosphere and the hydrological changes related to them. The Ötztal possesses an outstanding role in Austrian and international cryospheric research and reacts sensitive to changes in hydrology due to its socio-economic structure (e.g. importance of tourism, hydro-power). In this study future glacier scenarios for the runoff calculations in the Ötztal catchment are developed. In addition to climatological scenario data, glacier scenarios were established for the hydrological simulation of future runoff. Glacier outlines and glacier surface elevation changes of the Austrian Glacier Inventory were used to derive present ice thickness distribution and scenarios of glacier area distribution. Direct effects of climate change (i.e. temperature and precipitation change) and indirect effects in terms of variations in the cryosphere were considered for the analysis of the mean runoff and particularly flood frequencies. Runoff was modelled with the hydrological model HQSim, which was calibrated for the runoff gauges at Brunau, Obergurgl and Vent. For a sensitivity study, the model was driven by separate glacier scenarios. Keeping glacier area constant, variable climate input was used to separate the effect of climate sensitivity. Results of the combination of changed glacier areas and changed climate input were subsequently analysed. Glacier scenarios show first a decrease in volume, before glacier area shrinks. The applied method indicates a 50% ice volume loss by 2050 relative to today. Further, model results show a reduction in glacier volume and area to less than 20% of the current ice cover towards the end of the 21st century. The effect of reduced glacier areas can be seen in a reduction of runoff particularly in summer. Maintaining the glacier areas constant, runoff would increase in summer month caused by higher ice melt under climate change conditions. Also runoff increases in spring and fall is expected due to a shift from solid to liquid precipitation in the mountain catchments. The simulation of the combination of glacier change and climate change scenarios results in an increase in runoff in spring due to a shift in the snowline and a decrease in runoff in summer caused by reduced glacier area.

Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Control Technology Options within the Energy, Water and Food Nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Ansari, Tareq; Korre, Anna; Nie, Zhenggang; Shah, Nilay

2015-04-01

The utilisation of Energy, Water and Food (EWF) resources can be described as a nexus of complex linkages embodied in industrial and natural processes. Food production is one such example of a system that mobilises EWF resources to deliver a product which is highly influenced by the efficiency of the industrial processes contributing to it and the conditions of the surrounding natural environment. Aggregating the utilisation of EWF resources into interconnected sub-systems is necessary for the accurate representation of the system's dynamics in terms of its material flow and resource consumption. The methodology used in this study is an extension of previous work developed regarding nexus analysis (Al-Ansari et al. 2014a, Al-Ansari et al. 2014b). Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to prepare detailed models of the sub-system components, determine the linkages between the different nexus constituents and evaluate impacts on the natural environment. The nexus system is comprised of water sub-systems represented by a reverse osmosis (RO) desalination process. Energy sub-systems for power generation include models for a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) and solar Photovoltaics (PV) energy generation, as well as an amine based CO2 capture process enabling the utilisation of CO2 for the artificial fertilization of crops. The agricultural sub-systems include the production and application of fertilizers and the raising of livestock. A biomass integrated gasification combined cycle (BIGCC) for power generation using waste manure from the livestock sub-system is also included. The objective of this study is to consider a conventional food system in Qatar and enhance its environmental performance by using a nexus approach to examine different scenarios and operating modes. For the Qatar case study, three scenarios and four modes of operation were developed as part of the analysis. The baseline scenario uses fossil fuel to power the entire EWF nexus system using CCGT, the second scenario integrates PV to power the RO units and the third scenario uses solar PV to power the RO and fertilizer production facilities. The second operating mode integrates the BIGCC for power generation and the third mode utilises the gasification by-product biochar for the enhancement of agricultural productivity in addition to the power generated from the BIGCC. The final mode of operation examines the use of CO2 capture technology in the baseline scenario to support fertilization resulting in productivity increases for crops. References: Al-Ansari, T., Korre, A., Nie, Z., Shah, N., "Development of a life cycle assessment model for the analysis of the energy, water and food nexus" Computer Aided Chemical Engineering, 33, (2014), 1039-1044. Al-Ansari, T., Korre, A., Nie, Z., Shah, N., Integrated Modelling of the Energy, Water and Food Nexus to Enhance the Environmental Performance of Food Production Systems, 9th International Conference LCA of Food, San Francisco, USA, 8 - 10 October 2014

Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng

2017-01-01

Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchicalmore » clustering approach.« less

Investigation of Alternative Return Strategies for Orion Trans-earth Injection Design Options

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marchand, Belinda G.; Scarritt, Sara K.; Howell, Kathleen C.; Weeks, Michael W.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate alternative return strategies for the Orion trans-Earth injection (TEI) phase. A dynamical systems analysis approach considers the structure of the stable and unstable Sun perturbed Earth-Moon manifolds near the Earth-Moon interface region. A hybrid approach, then, combines the results from this analysis with classical two-body methods in a targeting process that seeks to expand the window of return opportunities in a precision entry scenario. The resulting startup arcs can be used, for instance, to enhance the block set of solutions available onboard during an autonomous targeting process.

Evaluation of effects of groundwater withdrawals at the proposed Allen combined-cycle combustion turbine plant, Shelby County, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haugh, Connor J.

2016-08-10

The Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater-flow model was used to simulate the potential effects of future groundwater withdrawals at the proposed Allen combined-cycle combustion turbine plant in Shelby County, Tennessee. The scenario used in the simulation consisted of a 30-year average withdrawal period followed by a 30-day maximum withdrawal period. Effects of withdrawals at the Allen plant site on the Mississippi embayment aquifer system were evaluated by comparing the difference in simulated water levels in the aquifers at the end of the 30-year average withdrawal period and at the end of the scenario to a base case without the Allen combined-cycle combustion turbine plant withdrawals. Simulated potentiometric surface declines in the Memphis aquifer at the Allen plant site were about 7 feet at the end of the 30-year average withdrawal period and 11 feet at the end of the scenario. The affected area of the Memphis aquifer at the Allen plant site as delineated by the 4-foot potentiometric surface-decline contour was 2,590 acres at the end of the 30-year average withdrawal period and 11,380 acres at the end of the scenario. Simulated declines in the underlying Fort Pillow aquifer and overlying shallow aquifer were both less than 1 foot at the end of the 30-year average withdrawal period and the end of the scenario.

Automating the evaluation of flood damages: methodology and potential gains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eleutério, Julian; Martinez, Edgar Daniel

2010-05-01

The evaluation of flood damage potential consists of three main steps: assessing and processing data, combining data and calculating potential damages. The first step consists of modelling hazard and assessing vulnerability. In general, this step of the evaluation demands more time and investments than the others. The second step of the evaluation consists of combining spatial data on hazard with spatial data on vulnerability. Geographic Information System (GIS) is a fundamental tool in the realization of this step. GIS software allows the simultaneous analysis of spatial and matrix data. The third step of the evaluation consists of calculating potential damages by means of damage-functions or contingent analysis. All steps demand time and expertise. However, the last two steps must be realized several times when comparing different management scenarios. In addition, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity test are made during the second and third steps of the evaluation. The feasibility of these steps could be relevant in the choice of the extent of the evaluation. Low feasibility could lead to choosing not to evaluate uncertainty or to limit the number of scenario comparisons. Several computer models have been developed over time in order to evaluate the flood risk. GIS software is largely used to realise flood risk analysis. The software is used to combine and process different types of data, and to visualise the risk and the evaluation results. The main advantages of using a GIS in these analyses are: the possibility of "easily" realising the analyses several times, in order to compare different scenarios and study uncertainty; the generation of datasets which could be used any time in future to support territorial decision making; the possibility of adding information over time to update the dataset and make other analyses. However, these analyses require personnel specialisation and time. The use of GIS software to evaluate the flood risk requires personnel with a double professional specialisation. The professional should be proficient in GIS software and in flood damage analysis (which is already a multidisciplinary field). Great effort is necessary in order to correctly evaluate flood damages, and the updating and the improvement of the evaluation over time become a difficult task. The automation of this process should bring great advance in flood management studies over time, especially for public utilities. This study has two specific objectives: (1) show the entire process of automation of the second and third steps of flood damage evaluations; and (2) analyse the induced potential gains in terms of time and expertise needed in the analysis. A programming language is used within GIS software in order to automate hazard and vulnerability data combination and potential damages calculation. We discuss the overall process of flood damage evaluation. The main result of this study is a computational tool which allows significant operational gains on flood loss analyses. We quantify these gains by means of a hypothetical example. The tool significantly reduces the time of analysis and the needs for expertise. An indirect gain is that sensitivity and cost-benefit analyses can be more easily realized.

Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) - a bottom-up, science-led approach to identifying indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mengis, Nadine; Keller, David P.; Oschlies, Andreas

2018-01-01

This study introduces the Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) method, a bottom-up approach which combines expert judgment and statistical information to systematically select transparent, nonredundant indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the state of the Earth system. The methods consists of two basic steps: (1) the calculation of a correlation matrix among variables relevant for a given research question and (2) the systematic evaluation of the matrix, to identify clusters of variables with similar behavior and respective mutually independent indicators. Optional further analysis steps include (3) the interpretation of the identified clusters, enabling a learning effect from the selection of indicators, (4) testing the robustness of identified clusters with respect to changes in forcing or boundary conditions, (5) enabling a comparative assessment of varying scenarios by constructing and evaluating a common correlation matrix, and (6) the inclusion of expert judgment, for example, to prescribe indicators, to allow for considerations other than statistical consistency. The example application of the SCoMaE method to Earth system model output forced by different CO2 emission scenarios reveals the necessity of reevaluating indicators identified in a historical scenario simulation for an accurate assessment of an intermediate-high, as well as a business-as-usual, climate change scenario simulation. This necessity arises from changes in prevailing correlations in the Earth system under varying climate forcing. For a comparative assessment of the three climate change scenarios, we construct and evaluate a common correlation matrix, in which we identify robust correlations between variables across the three considered scenarios.

Comparative study of signalling methods for high-speed backplane transceiver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Kejun

2017-11-01

A combined analysis of transient simulation and statistical method is proposed for comparative study of signalling methods applied to high-speed backplane transceivers. This method enables fast and accurate signal-to-noise ratio and symbol error rate estimation of a serial link based on a four-dimension design space, including channel characteristics, noise scenarios, equalisation schemes, and signalling methods. The proposed combined analysis method chooses an efficient sampling size for performance evaluation. A comparative study of non-return-to-zero (NRZ), PAM-4, and four-phase shifted sinusoid symbol (PSS-4) using parameterised behaviour-level simulation shows PAM-4 and PSS-4 has substantial advantages over conventional NRZ in most of the cases. A comparison between PAM-4 and PSS-4 shows PAM-4 gets significant bit error rate degradation when noise level is enhanced.

Applying Qualitative Hazard Analysis to Support Quantitative Safety Analysis for Proposed Reduced Wake Separation Conops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shortle, John F.; Allocco, Michael

2005-01-01

This paper describes a scenario-driven hazard analysis process to identify, eliminate, and control safety-related risks. Within this process, we develop selective criteria to determine the applicability of applying engineering modeling to hypothesized hazard scenarios. This provides a basis for evaluating and prioritizing the scenarios as candidates for further quantitative analysis. We have applied this methodology to proposed concepts of operations for reduced wake separation for closely spaced parallel runways. For arrivals, the process identified 43 core hazard scenarios. Of these, we classified 12 as appropriate for further quantitative modeling, 24 that should be mitigated through controls, recommendations, and / or procedures (that is, scenarios not appropriate for quantitative modeling), and 7 that have the lowest priority for further analysis.

Water-Energy Nexus Challenges & Opportunities in the Arabian Peninsula under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores-Lopez, F.; Yates, D. N.; Galaitsi, S.; Binnington, T.; Dougherty, W.; Vinnaccia, M.; Glavan, J. C.

2016-12-01

Demand for water in the GCC countries relies mainly on fossil groundwater resources and desalination. Satisfying water demand requires a great deal of energy as it treats and moves water along the supply chain from sources, through treatment processes, and ultimately to the consumer. Hence, there is an inherent connection between water and energy and with climate change, the links between water and energy are expected to become even stronger. As part of AGEDI's Local, National, and Regional Climate Change Programme, a study of the water-energy nexus of the countries in the Arabian Peninsula was implemented. For water, WEAP models both water demand - and its main drivers - and water supply, simulating policies, priorities and preferences. For energy, LEAP models both energy supply and demand, and is able to capture the impacts of low carbon development strategies. A coupled WEAP-LEAP model was then used to evaluate the future performance of the energy-water system under climate change and policy scenarios. The coupled models required detailed data, which were obtained through literature reviews and consultations with key stakeholders in the region. As part of this process, the outputs of both models were validated for historic periods using existing data The models examined 5 policy scenarios of different futures of resource management to the year 2060. A future under current management practices with current climate and a climate projection based on the RCP8.5; a High Efficiency scenario where each country gradually implements policies to reduce the consumption of water and electricity; a Natural Resource Protection scenario with resource efficiency and phasing out of groundwater extraction and drastic reduction of fossil fuel usage in favor of solar; and an Integrated Policy scenario that integrates the prior two policy scenarios Water demands can mostly be met in any scenario through supply combinations of groundwater, desalination and wastewater reuse, with some regional fossil groundwater basins draw to extinction by 2060. While the analysis includes both demand and supply oriented scenarios, the results of the analysis strongly suggest that the region will need to simultaneously purse demand and supply side policies to achieve more sustainable uses of water and energy into the second half of the 21st century.

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Makowski, David; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Bassu, Simona; Durand, Jean-Louis; Martre, Pierre; Adam, Myriam; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos; Baron, Chritian;

Dark Matter Search in Space: Combined Analysis of Cosmic-Ray Antiproton-to-proton Flux Ratio and Positron Flux Measured by AMS-02

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Jie; Zhang, Hong-Hao

2018-05-01

Dark matter searches in space have been carried out for many years. Measurements of cosmic-ray (CR) photons, charged antiparticles, and neutrinos are useful tools for dark matter indirect searches. The antiparticle energy spectra of CRs have several exciting features, such as the unexpected positron excess at E ∼ 10–500 GeV and the remarkably flattening antiproton/proton at E ∼ 60–450 GeV precisely measured by the AMS-02 experiment, which cannot be explained simultaneously by secondary production in the interstellar medium. In this work, we report a combined analysis of CR antiproton and positron spectra arising from dark matter on the top of a secondary production in a spatial-dependent propagation model. We discuss the systematic uncertainties from the antiproton production cross section using the two latest Monte Carlo generators, i.e., EPOS LHC and QGSJET-II-04m. We compare their results. In the case of EPOS LHC, we find that the dark matter pair annihilating into τ leptons channel with a 100% branching ratio and the p-wave annihilation cross section assumption is the only possible one-channel scenario to explain the data. On the other hand, there is not a single possible channel in the case of QGSJET-II-04m. We also propose possible two-channel scenarios based on these two Monte Carlo generators.

Finding the right compromise between productivity and environmental efficiency on high input tropical dairy farms: a case study.

PubMed

Berre, David; Blancard, Stéphane; Boussemart, Jean-Philippe; Leleu, Hervé; Tillard, Emmanuel

2014-12-15

This study focused on the trade-off between milk production and its environmental impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and nitrogen surplus in a high input tropical system. We first identified the objectives of the three main stakeholders in the dairy sector (farmers, a milk cooperative and environmentalists). The main aim of the farmers and cooperative's scenarios was to increase milk production without additional environmental deterioration but with the possibility of increasing the inputs for the cooperative. The environmentalist's objective was to reduce environmental deterioration. Second, we designed a sustainable intensification scenario combining maximization of milk production and minimization of environmental impacts. Third, the objectives for reducing the eco-inefficiency of dairy systems in Reunion Island were incorporated in a framework for activity analysis, which was used to model a technological approach with desirable and undesirable outputs. Of the four scenarios, the sustainable intensification scenario produced the best results, with a potential decrease of 238 g CO2-e per liter of milk (i.e. a reduction of 13.93% compared to the current level) and a potential 7.72 L increase in milk produced for each kg of nitrogen surplus (i.e. an increase of 16.45% compared to the current level). These results were based on the best practices observed in Reunion Island and optimized manure management, crop-livestock interactions, and production processes. Our results also showed that frontier efficiency analysis can shed new light on the challenge of developing sustainable intensification in high input tropical dairy systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Systems Approach to Designing Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Water Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, D.; Malano, H. M.; Davidson, B.; George, B.

2014-12-01

Climate change projections are characterised by large uncertainties with rainfall variability being the key challenge in designing adaptation policies. Climate change adaptation in water resources shows all the typical characteristics of 'wicked' problems typified by cognitive uncertainty as new scientific knowledge becomes available, problem instability, knowledge imperfection and strategic uncertainty due to institutional changes that inevitably occur over time. Planning that is characterised by uncertainties and instability requires an approach that can accommodate flexibility and adaptive capacity for decision-making. An ability to take corrective measures in the event that scenarios and responses envisaged initially derive into forms at some future stage. We present an integrated-multidisciplinary and comprehensive framework designed to interface and inform science and decision making in the formulation of water resource management strategies to deal with climate change in the Musi Catchment of Andhra Pradesh, India. At the core of this framework is a dialogue between stakeholders, decision makers and scientists to define a set of plausible responses to an ensemble of climate change scenarios derived from global climate modelling. The modelling framework used to evaluate the resulting combination of climate scenarios and adaptation responses includes the surface and groundwater assessment models (SWAT & MODFLOW) and the water allocation modelling (REALM) to determine the water security of each adaptation strategy. Three climate scenarios extracted from downscaled climate models were selected for evaluation together with four agreed responses—changing cropping patterns, increasing watershed development, changing the volume of groundwater extraction and improving irrigation efficiency. Water security in this context is represented by the combination of level of water availability and its associated security of supply for three economic activities (agriculture, urban, industrial) on a spatially distributed basis. The resulting combinations of climate scenarios and adaptation responses were subjected to a combined hydro-economic assessment based on the degree of water security together with its cost-effectiveness against the Business-as-usual scenario.

Climate change risk to forests in China associated with warming.

PubMed

Yin, Yunhe; Ma, Danyang; Wu, Shaohong

2018-01-11

Variations in forest net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the combined effects of key climate variables on ecosystem structure and function, especially on the carbon cycle. We performed risk analysis indicated by the magnitude of future negative anomalies in NPP in comparison with the natural interannual variability to investigate the impact of future climatic projections on forests in China. Results from the multi-model ensemble showed that climate change risk of decreases in forest NPP would be more significant in higher emission scenario in China. Under relatively low emission scenarios, the total area of risk was predicted to decline, while for RCP8.5, it was predicted to first decrease and then increase after the middle of 21st century. The rapid temperature increases predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario would be probably unfavorable for forest vegetation growth in the long term. High-level risk area was likely to increase except RCP2.6. The percentage area at high risk was predicted to increase from 5.39% (2021-2050) to 27.62% (2071-2099) under RCP8.5. Climate change risk to forests was mostly concentrated in southern subtropical and tropical regions, generally significant under high emission scenario of RCP8.5, which was mainly attributed to the intensified dryness in south China.

Research on the food security condition and food supply capacity of Egypt.

PubMed

Deng, Jian; Xiang, Youzhen; Hao, Wenhui; Feng, Yongzhong; Yang, Gaihe; Ren, Guangxin; Han, Xinhui

2014-01-01

Food security is chronically guaranteed in Egypt because of the food subsidy policy of the country. However, the increasing Egyptian population is straining the food supply. To study changes in Egyptian food security and future food supply capacity, we analysed the historical grain production, yield per unit, grain-cultivated area, and per capita grain possession of Egypt. The GM (1,1) model of the grey system was used to predict the future population. Thereafter, the result was combined with scenario analysis to forecast the grain possession and population carrying capacity of Egypt under different scenarios. Results show that the increasing population and limitations in cultivated land will strain Egyptian food security. Only in high cultivated areas and high grain yield scenarios before 2020, or in high cultivated areas and mid grain yield scenarios before 2015, can food supply be basically satisfied (assurance rate ≥ 80%) under a standard of 400 kg per capita. Population carrying capacity in 2030 is between 51.45 and 89.35 million. Thus, we propose the use of advanced technologies in agriculture and the adjustment of plant structure and cropping systems to improve land utilization efficiency. Furthermore, urbanization and other uses of cultivated land should be strictly controlled to ensure the planting of grains.

[Generalized cost-effectiveness of preventive interventions against cervical cancer in Mexican women: results of a Markov model from the public sector perspective].

PubMed

Gutiérrez-Delgado, Cristina; Báez-Mendoza, Camilo; González-Pier, Eduardo; de la Rosa, Alejandra Prieto; Witlen, Renee

2008-01-01

To develop a generalized cost-effectiveness analysis (GCEA) of the HPV vaccine, hybrid capture screening (HC) and Papanicolaou screening (Pap) in the Mexican context. From April to August 2007, in Mexico, a GCEA of the interventions was developed for 10 possible scenarios using a Markov model from the public sector perspective as payer. Scenarios considering 80% coverage show an ACER per DALY averted of $16678 pesos for Pap of women between ages 25 and 64, $17277 pesos for HC of women between ages 30 and 64, and $84008 pesos for vaccination of 12-year-old girls. Annual financing of $621, $741 and $2255 million pesos, respectively, is needed for these scenarios. A selective, combined introduction of Pap-HC screening that considers the comparative advantages of application in different populations and geographical areas is suggested. Additionally, it is suggested to introduce the vaccine once a threshold price of $181 pesos per dose -when the vaccine becomes equal in terms of cost-effectiveness to HC- has been achieved.

Oil supply between OPEC and non-OPEC based on game theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Yuwen; Yi, Jiexin; Yan, Wei; Yang, Xinshe; Zhang, Song; Gao, Yifan; Wang, Xi

2014-10-01

The competing strategies between OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and non-OPEC producers make the oil supply market a complex system, and thus, it is very difficult to model and to make predictions. In this paper, we combine the macro-model based on game theory and micro-model to propose a new approach for forecasting oil supply. We take into account the microscopic behaviour in the clearing market and also use the game relationships to adjust oil supplies in our approach. For the supply model, we analyse and consider the different behaviour of non-OPEC and OPEC producers. According to our analysis, limiting the oil supply, and thus maintaining oil price, is the best strategy for OPEC in the low-price scenario, while the rising supply is the best strategy in the high-price scenario. No matter what the oil price is, the dominant strategy for non-OPEC producers is to increase their oil supply. In the high-price scenario, OPEC will try to deplete non-OPEC's share in the oil supply market, which is to OPEC's advantage.

A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Race, Caitlin; Steinbach, Michael; Ganguly, Auroop R

2010-01-01

The connections among greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios, global warming, and frequencies of hurricanes or tropical cyclones are among the least understood in climate science but among the most fiercely debated in the context of adaptation decisions or mitigation policies. Here we show that a knowledge discovery strategy, which leverages observations and climate model simulations, offers the promise of developing credible projections of tropical cyclones based on sea surface temperatures (SST) in a warming environment. While this study motivates the development of new methodologies in statistics and data mining, the ability to solve challenging climate science problems with innovative combinations of traditionalmore » and state-of-the-art methods is demonstrated. Here we develop new insights, albeit in a proof-of-concept sense, on the relationship between sea surface temperatures and hurricane frequencies, and generate the most likely projections with uncertainty bounds for storm counts in the 21st-century warming environment based in turn on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our preliminary insights point to the benefits that can be achieved for climate science and impacts analysis, as well as adaptation and mitigation policies, by a solution strategy that remains tailored to the climate domain and complements physics-based climate model simulations with a combination of existing and new computational and data science approaches.« less

Nonstationary decision model for flood risk decision scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, Caitlin M.; Brown, Casey M.

2016-11-01

Hydroclimatic stationarity is increasingly questioned as a default assumption in flood risk management (FRM), but successor methods are not yet established. Some potential successors depend on estimates of future flood quantiles, but methods for estimating future design storms are subject to high levels of uncertainty. Here we apply a Nonstationary Decision Model (NDM) to flood risk planning within the decision scaling framework. The NDM combines a nonstationary probability distribution of annual peak flow with optimal selection of flood management alternatives using robustness measures. The NDM incorporates structural and nonstructural FRM interventions and valuation of flows supporting ecosystem services to calculate expected cost of a given FRM strategy. A search for the minimum-cost strategy under incrementally varied representative scenarios extending across the plausible range of flood trend and value of the natural flow regime discovers candidate FRM strategies that are evaluated and compared through a decision scaling analysis (DSA). The DSA selects a management strategy that is optimal or close to optimal across the broadest range of scenarios or across the set of scenarios deemed most likely to occur according to estimates of future flood hazard. We illustrate the decision framework using a stylized example flood management decision based on the Iowa City flood management system, which has experienced recent unprecedented high flow episodes. The DSA indicates a preference for combining infrastructural and nonstructural adaptation measures to manage flood risk and makes clear that options-based approaches cannot be assumed to be "no" or "low regret."

DIY Solar Market Analysis Webinar Series: Community Solar Scenario Tool |

Science.gov Websites

State, Local, and Tribal Governments | NREL Webinar Series: Community Solar Scenario Tool DIY Solar Market Analysis Webinar Series: Community Solar Scenario Tool Wednesday, August 13, 2014 As part ) presented a live webinar titled, "Community Solar Scenario Tool: Planning for a fruitful solar garden

Flight deck engine advisor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shontz, W. D.; Records, R. M.; Antonelli, D. R.

1992-01-01

The focus of this project is on alerting pilots to impending events in such a way as to provide the additional time required for the crew to make critical decisions concerning non-normal operations. The project addresses pilots' need for support in diagnosis and trend monitoring of faults as they affect decisions that must be made within the context of the current flight. Monitoring and diagnostic modules developed under the NASA Faultfinder program were restructured and enhanced using input data from an engine model and real engine fault data. Fault scenarios were prepared to support knowledge base development activities on the MONITAUR and DRAPhyS modules of Faultfinder. An analysis of the information requirements for fault management was included in each scenario. A conceptual framework was developed for systematic evaluation of the impact of context variables on pilot action alternatives as a function of event/fault combinations.

A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

PubMed

Savary, S; Djurle, A; Yuen, J; Ficke, A; Rossi, V; Esker, P D; Fernandes, J M C; Del Ponte, E M; Kumar, J; Madden, L V; Paul, P; McRoberts, N; Singh, P K; Huber, L; Pope de Vallavielle, C; Saint-Jean, S; Willocquet, L

2017-10-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global changes on the six functional groups, in terms of their epidemiology and of the crop losses they cause. Scenario analysis enables qualitative analysis of complex systems, such as plant pathosystems that are evolving in response to global changes, including climate change and technology shifts. It also provides a useful framework for quantitative simulation modeling analysis for plant disease epidemiology.

[Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

PubMed

Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

2015-08-01

Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

Optimizing Environmental Flow Operation Rules based on Explicit IHA Constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dongnan, L.; Wan, W.; Zhao, J.

2017-12-01

Multi-objective operation of reservoirs are increasingly asked to consider the environmental flow to support ecosystem health. Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) is widely used to describe environmental flow regimes, but few studies have explicitly formulated it into optimization models and thus is difficult to direct reservoir release. In an attempt to incorporate the benefit of environmental flow into economic achievement, a two-objective reservoir optimization model is developed and all 33 hydrologic parameters of IHA are explicitly formulated into constraints. The benefit of economic is defined by Hydropower Production (HP) while the benefit of environmental flow is transformed into Eco-Index (EI) that combined 5 of the 33 IHA parameters chosen by principal component analysis method. Five scenarios (A to E) with different constraints are tested and solved by nonlinear programming. The case study of Jing Hong reservoir, located in the upstream of Mekong basin, China, shows: 1. A Pareto frontier is formed by maximizing on only HP objective in scenario A and on only EI objective in scenario B. 2. Scenario D using IHA parameters as constraints obtains the optimal benefits of both economic and ecological. 3. A sensitive weight coefficient is found in scenario E, but the trade-offs between HP and EI objectives are not within the Pareto frontier. 4. When the fraction of reservoir utilizable capacity reaches 0.8, both HP and EI capture acceptable values. At last, to make this modelmore conveniently applied to everyday practice, a simplified operation rule curve is extracted.

Evaluating management tradeoffs between economic fiber production and other ecosystem services in a Chinese-fir dominated forest plantation in Fujian Province.

PubMed

Kang, Haijun; Seely, Brad; Wang, Guangyu; Innes, John; Zheng, Dexiang; Chen, Pingliu; Wang, Tongli; Li, Qinglin

2016-07-01

Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) is not only a valuable timber species, but also plays an important role in the provision of ecosystem services. Forest management decisions to increase the production of fiber for economic gain may have negative impacts on the long-term flow of ecosystem services from forest resources. Such tradeoffs should be taken into account to fulfill the requirements of sustainable forest management. Here we employed an established, ecosystem-based, stand-level model (FORECAST) in combination with a simplified harvest-scheduling model to evaluate the potential tradeoffs among indicators of provisional, regulating and supporting ecosystem services in a Chinese-fir-dominated landscape located in Fujian Province as a case study. Indicators included: merchantable volume harvested, biomass harvested, ecosystem carbon storage, CO2 fixation, O2 released, biomass nitrogen content, pollutant absorption, and soil fertility. A series of alternative management scenarios, representing different combinations of rotation length and harvest intensity, were simulated to facilitate the analysis. Results from the analysis were summarized in the form of a decision matrix designed to provide a method for forest managers to evaluate management alternatives and tradeoffs in the context of key indicators of ecosystem services. The scenario analysis suggests that there are considerable tradeoffs in terms of ecosystem services associated with stand and landscape-level management decisions. Longer rotations and increased retention tended to favor regulating and supporting services while the opposite was true for provisional services. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Systems study of fuels from grains and grasses. Phase I. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Benson, W.; Allen, A.; Athey, R.

1978-02-24

The program reported on herein consists of a first phase analysis of the potential for significant and economically viable contributions to U.S. energy needs from grasses and grains by the photosynthetic production of biomass. The study does not include other cultivated crops such as sugar cane, sugar beets, cotton, tobacco, vegetables, fruits, etc. The scope of the study encompasses grain crop residues, whole plant biomass from grain crops and nongrain crops on cropland, and whole plant biomass from grasses on pasture, rangeland, and federal range. The basic approach to the study involves first an assessment of current total biomass generationmore » from the various grasses and grains on cropland, pasture, range, and federal range, and aggregating the production by combinations of crop residues and whole plant biomass; second, evaluation of possibilities for introduction of new crops and expanding production to marginal or presently idle land; third, development of proposed reasonable scenarios for actually harvesting biomass from selected combinations of crop residues, forages and hays, and new crops from land now in production, plus additional marginal or underutilized land brought into production; and finally, assessment on national and regional or local scales of the production that might be affected by reasonable scenarios. This latter effort includes analysis of tentative possibilities for reallocating priorities and needs with regard to production of grain for export or for livestock production. The overall program includes a case study analysis of production economics for a representative farm of about 1,000 acres (405 ha) located in Iowa.« less

Information content of visible and midinfrared radiances for retrieving tropical ice cloud properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Kai-Wei; L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.; Kahn, Brian H.; Natraj, Vijay

2017-05-01

Hyperspectral instruments such as Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) have spectrally dense observations effective for ice cloud retrievals. However, due to the large number of channels, only a small subset is typically used. It is crucial that this subset of channels be chosen to contain the maximum possible information about the retrieved variables. This study describes an information content analysis designed to select optimal channels for ice cloud retrievals. To account for variations in ice cloud properties, we perform channel selection over an ensemble of cloud regimes, extracted with a clustering algorithm, from a multiyear database at a tropical Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site. Multiple satellite viewing angles over land and ocean surfaces are considered to simulate the variations in observation scenarios. The results suggest that AIRS channels near wavelengths of 14, 10.4, 4.2, and 3.8 μm contain the most information. With an eye toward developing a joint AIRS-MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) retrieval, the analysis is also applied to combined measurements from both instruments. While application of this method to MODIS yields results consistent with previous channel sensitivity studies, the analysis shows that this combination may yield substantial improvement in cloud retrievals. MODIS provides most information on optical thickness and particle size, aided by a better constraint on cloud vertical placement from AIRS. An alternate scenario where cloud top boundaries are supplied by the active sensors in the A-train is also explored. The more robust cloud placement afforded by active sensors shifts the optimal channels toward the window region and shortwave infrared, further constraining optical thickness and particle size.

Moon manned missions radiation safety analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathi, R. K.; Wilson, J. W.; de Anlelis, G.; Badavi, F. F.

An analysis is performed on the radiation environment found on the surface of the Moon, and applied to different possible lunar base mission scenarios. An optimization technique has been used to obtain mission scenarios minimizing the astronaut radiation exposure and at the same time controlling the effect of shielding, in terms of mass addition and material choice, as a mission cost driver. The optimization process has been realized through minimization of mass along all phases of a mission scenario, in terms of time frame (dates, transfer time length and trajectory, radiation environment), equipment (vehicles, in terms of shape, volume, onboard material choice, size and structure), location (if in space, on the surface, inside or outside a certain habitats), crew characteristics (number, gender, age, tasks) and performance required (spacecraft and habitat volumes), radiation exposure annual and career limit constraint (from NCRP 132), and implementation of the ALARA principle (shelter from the occurrence of Solar Particle Events). On the lunar surface the most important contribution to radiation exposure is given by background Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) particles, mostly protons, alpha particles, and some heavy ions, and by locally induced particles, mostly neutrons, created by the interaction between GCR and surface material and emerging from below the surface due to backscattering processes. In this environment manned habitats are to host future crews involved in the construction and/or in the utilization of moon based infrastructure. Three different kinds of lunar missions are considered in the analysis, Moon Base Construction Phase, during which astronauts are on the surface just to build an outpost for future resident crews, Moon Base Outpost Phase, during which astronaut crews are resident but continuing exploration and installation activities, and Moon Base Routine Phase, with long-term shifting resident crews. In each scenario various kinds of habitats, from very simple shelters to more complex bases, are considered in full detail (e.g., shape, thickness, materials, etc) with considerations of various shielding strategies. In this first analysis all the shape considered are cylindrical or composed of combination of cylinders. Moreover, a radiation safety analysis of more future possible habitats like lava tubes has been also performed.

Fuzzy logic based sensor performance evaluation of vehicle mounted metal detector systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abeynayake, Canicious; Tran, Minh D.

2015-05-01

Vehicle Mounted Metal Detector (VMMD) systems are widely used for detection of threat objects in humanitarian demining and military route clearance scenarios. Due to the diverse nature of such operational conditions, operational use of VMMD without a proper understanding of its capability boundaries may lead to heavy causalities. Multi-criteria fitness evaluations are crucial for determining capability boundaries of any sensor-based demining equipment. Evaluation of sensor based military equipment is a multi-disciplinary topic combining the efforts of researchers, operators, managers and commanders having different professional backgrounds and knowledge profiles. Information acquired through field tests usually involves uncertainty, vagueness and imprecision due to variations in test and evaluation conditions during a single test or series of tests. This report presents a fuzzy logic based methodology for experimental data analysis and performance evaluation of VMMD. This data evaluation methodology has been developed to evaluate sensor performance by consolidating expert knowledge with experimental data. A case study is presented by implementing the proposed data analysis framework in a VMMD evaluation scenario. The results of this analysis confirm accuracy, practicability and reliability of the fuzzy logic based sensor performance evaluation framework.

Station Blackout: A case study in the interaction of mechanistic and probabilistic safety analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis Smith; Diego Mandelli; Cristian Rabiti

2013-11-01

The ability to better characterize and quantify safety margins is important to improved decision making about nuclear power plant design, operation, and plant life extension. As research and development (R&D) in the light-water reactor (LWR) Sustainability (LWRS) Program and other collaborative efforts yield new data, sensors, and improved scientific understanding of physical processes that govern the aging and degradation of plant SSCs needs and opportunities to better optimize plant safety and performance will become known. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway R&D is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim tomore » improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe the RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario.« less

A Comparison of Probabilistic and Deterministic Campaign Analysis for Human Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merrill, R. Gabe; Andraschko, Mark; Stromgren, Chel; Cirillo, Bill; Earle, Kevin; Goodliff, Kandyce

2008-01-01

Human space exploration is by its very nature an uncertain endeavor. Vehicle reliability, technology development risk, budgetary uncertainty, and launch uncertainty all contribute to stochasticity in an exploration scenario. However, traditional strategic analysis has been done in a deterministic manner, analyzing and optimizing the performance of a series of planned missions. History has shown that exploration scenarios rarely follow such a planned schedule. This paper describes a methodology to integrate deterministic and probabilistic analysis of scenarios in support of human space exploration. Probabilistic strategic analysis is used to simulate "possible" scenario outcomes, based upon the likelihood of occurrence of certain events and a set of pre-determined contingency rules. The results of the probabilistic analysis are compared to the nominal results from the deterministic analysis to evaluate the robustness of the scenario to adverse events and to test and optimize contingency planning.

The impact of variation in scaling factors on the estimation of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Many physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models include values for metabolic rate parameters extrapolated from in vitro metabolism studies using scaling factors such as mg of microsomal protein per gram of liver (MPPGL) and liver mass (FVL). Variation in scaling factor values impacts metabolic rate parameter estimates (Vmax) and hence estimates of internal dose used in dose response analysis. The impacts of adult human variation in MPPGL and FVL on estimates of internal dose were assessed using a human PBPK model for BDCM for several internal dose metrics for two exposure scenarios (single 0.25 liter drink of water or 10 minute shower) under plausible (5 micrograms/L) and high level (20 micrograms/L) water concentrations. For both concentrations, all internal dose metrics were changed less than 5% for the showering scenario (combined inhalation and dermal exposure). In contrast, a 27-fold variation in area under the curve for BDCM in venous blood was observed at both oral exposure concentrations, whereas total amount of BDCM metabolized in liver was relatively unchanged. This analysis demonstrates that variability in the scaling factors used for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) for metabolic rate parameters can have a significant route-dependent impact on estimates of internal dose under environmentally relevant exposure scenarios. This indicates the need to evaluate both uncertainty and variability for scaling factors used for IVIVE. Sca

Exploring the Analytical Processes of Intelligence Analysts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, George; Kuchar, Olga A.; Wolf, Katherine E.

We present an observational case study in which we investigate and analyze the analytical processes of intelligence analysts. Participating analysts in the study carry out two scenarios where they organize and triage information, conduct intelligence analysis, report results, and collaborate with one another. Through a combination of artifact analyses, group interviews, and participant observations, we explore the space and boundaries in which intelligence analysts work and operate. We also assess the implications of our findings on the use and application of relevant information technologies.

Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST): A Framework for Analyzing Compounding Effects of Multiple Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadegh, M.; Moftakhari, H.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Many natural hazards are driven by multiple forcing variables, and concurrence/consecutive extreme events significantly increases risk of infrastructure/system failure. It is a common practice to use univariate analysis based upon a perceived ruling driver to estimate design quantiles and/or return periods of extreme events. A multivariate analysis, however, permits modeling simultaneous occurrence of multiple forcing variables. In this presentation, we introduce the Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST) that comprehensively analyzes marginal and joint probability distributions of natural hazards. MhAST also offers a wide range of scenarios of return period and design levels and their likelihoods. Contribution of this study is four-fold: 1. comprehensive analysis of marginal and joint probability of multiple drivers through 17 continuous distributions and 26 copulas, 2. multiple scenario analysis of concurrent extremes based upon the most likely joint occurrence, one ruling variable, and weighted random sampling of joint occurrences with similar exceedance probabilities, 3. weighted average scenario analysis based on a expected event, and 4. uncertainty analysis of the most likely joint occurrence scenario using a Bayesian framework.

The Role of Combined ICRF and NBI Heating in JET Hybrid Plasmas in Quest for High D-T Fusion Yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantsinen, Mervi; Challis, Clive; Frigione, Domenico; Graves, Jonathan; Hobirk, Joerg; Belonohy, Eva; Czarnecka, Agata; Eriksson, Jacob; Gallart, Dani; Goniche, Marc; Hellesen, Carl; Jacquet, Philippe; Joffrin, Emmanuel; King, Damian; Krawczyk, Natalia; Lennholm, Morten; Lerche, Ernesto; Pawelec, Ewa; Sips, George; Solano, Emilia R.; Tsalas, Maximos; Valisa, Marco

2017-10-01

Combined ICRF and NBI heating played a key role in achieving the world-record fusion yield in the first deuterium-tritium campaign at the JET tokamak in 1997. The current plans for JET include new experiments with deuterium-tritium (D-T) plasmas with more ITER-like conditions given the recently installed ITER-like wall (ILW). In the 2015-2016 campaigns, significant efforts have been devoted to the development of high-performance plasma scenarios compatible with ILW in preparation of the forthcoming D-T campaign. Good progress was made in both the inductive (baseline) and the hybrid scenario: a new record JET ILW fusion yield with a significantly extended duration of the high-performance phase was achieved. This paper reports on the progress with the hybrid scenario which is a candidate for ITER longpulse operation (˜1000 s) thanks to its improved normalized confinement, reduced plasma current and higher plasma beta with respect to the ITER reference baseline scenario. The combined NBI+ICRF power in the hybrid scenario was increased to 33 MW and the record fusion yield, averaged over 100 ms, to 2.9x1016 neutrons/s from the 2014 ILW fusion record of 2.3x1016 neutrons/s. Impurity control with ICRF waves was one of the key means for extending the duration of the high-performance phase. The main results are reviewed covering both key core and edge plasma issues.

A fluvial and pluvial probabilistic flood hazard analysis for Can Tho city, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, Heiko; Martinez, Oriol; Thi Chinh, Do; Viet Dung, Nguyen

2014-05-01

Can Tho city is the largest city and the economic heart of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Due to its economic importance and envisaged development goals the city grew rapidly in population size and extend over the last two decades. Large parts of the city are located in flood prone areas, and also the central parts of the city recently experienced an increasing number of flood events, both of fluvial and pluvial nature. As the economic power and asset values are constantly increasing, this poses a considerable risk for the city. The the aim of this study is to perform a flood hazard analysis considering both fluvial and pluvial floods and to derive probabilistic flood hazard maps. This requires in a first step an understanding of the typical flood mechanisms. Fluvial floods are triggered by a coincidence of high water levels during the annual flood period in the Mekong Delta with high tidal levels, which cause in combination short term inundations in Can Tho. Pluvial floods are triggered by typical tropical convective rain storms during the monsoon season. These two flood pathways are essentially independent in its sources and can thus be treated in the hazard analysis accordingly. For the fluvial hazard analysis we propose a bivariate frequency analysis of the Mekong flood characteristics, the annual maximum flood discharge Q and the annual flood volume V at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta, the gauging station Kratie. This defines probabilities of exceedance of different Q-V pairs, which are transferred into synthetic flood hydrographs. The synthetic hydrographs are routed through a quasi-2D hydrodynamic model of the entire Mekong Delta in order to provide boundary conditions for a detailed hazard mapping of Can Tho. This downscaling step is necessary, because the huge complexity of the river and channel network does not allow for a proper definition of boundary conditions for Can Tho city by gauge data alone. In addition the available gauge data around Can Tho are too short for a meaningful frequency analysis. The detailed hazard mapping is performed by a 2D hydrodynamic model for Can Tho city. As the scenarios are derived in a Monte-Carlo framework, the final flood hazard maps are probabilistic, i.e. show the median flood hazard along with uncertainty estimates for each defined level of probabilities of exceedance. For the pluvial flood hazard a frequency analysis of the hourly rain gauge data of Can Tho is performed implementing a peak-over-threshold procedure. Based on this frequency analysis synthetic rains storms are generated in a Monte-Carlo framework for the same probabilities of exceedance as in the fluvial flood hazard analysis. Probabilistic flood hazard maps were then generated with the same 2D hydrodynamic model for the city. In a last step the fluvial and pluvial scenarios are combined assuming independence of the events. These scenarios were also transferred into hazard maps by the 2D hydrodynamic model finally yielding combined fluvial-pluvial probabilistic flood hazard maps for Can Tho. The derived set of maps may be used for an improved city planning or a flood risk analysis.

Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces of land change, and is transferable to other case study areas with different land use change processes and consequences. The framework starts with the involvement of stakeholders where driving forces of land use change are being studied by performing interviews and group discussions. In order to bridge the gap between qualitative methods and conventional geospatial techniques, we applied cognitive mapping and the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact and Response framework (DPSIR) to develop a conceptual land use change model. This was later transformed into a spatially explicit land use change model based on remote sensing data, GIS and cellular automata spatial allocation. The methodology was developed and applied in a study area in the eastern Italian Alps, where the uncertainties regarding future urban expansion are high. Later, we transferred it to a study area in the Romanian Carpathians, where the identified prevailing process of land use change is deforestation. Both areas are subject to hydro-meteorological risk, posing a need for the analysis of the possible future spatial pattern and locations of land use change. The resulting scenarios enabled us, to point at identifying hot-spots of land use change, serving as a possible input for a risk assessment.

Combination of precise GNSS orbit and clock solutions in a multi-constellation, multi-frequency environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz Geist, Estefania

2015-04-01

Precise GNSS orbit and clock solutions are essential for the generation of the Terrestrial Reference Frame (TRF) and required for a broad variety of applications. Over the last decades the combination products of the International GNSS Service (IGS) have become the standard for all kinds of GNSS applications requiring highest accuracy. The emerging new GNSS constellations Galileo, BeiDou and the QZSS as well as the modernization of the already established GPS and GLONASS constellations will stimulate a new development in the GNSS data processing in order to gain be best benefit from the new signals and systems for geodetic and geodynamic applications. This introduces the question regarding the influence of this development on the orbit and clock products. What are the consequences for the consistency of the contributions from the Analysis Centres (ACs) of the IGS and how does the combination procedure need to react on his development? Another set of questions is related to the expected scenario in which not all IGS ACs will likely include all GNSS. The algorithm for the orbit and clock combination needs to be adapted for a multi-system combination to keep on one hand the internal consistency between the GNSS during the combination procedure but also consider the differences in the expected orbit qualities between the satellite systems (e.g., due to the number of satellites or network coverage). To investigate these questions ESOC and AIUB have agreed on a joint research fellowship for three years. The objective of this research is to analyse the capabilities and challenges when combining hybrid multi-GNSS solutions and to develop a concept, which compares and combines orbit and clock contributions to come up with a consistent, reliable, truly combined multi-GNSS combination product. Well-defined test scenarios shall be constructed and analysed based on the GNSS data processing software packages in the two institutions, namely "NAPEOS" and "Bernese GNSS Software". The presentation will show selected results from the on-going research, to address the impact of several key elements, on the potential combination, which will ultimately give the criteria for the weighting scheme undertaken in the combination.

Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts.

PubMed

Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A M; Bayer, Anita D; Li, Wei; Leung, Felix; Bondeau, Alberte; Doelman, Jonathan C; Humpenöder, Florian; Anthoni, Peter; Bodirsky, Benjamin L; Ciais, Philippe; Müller, Christoph; Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo; Olin, Stefan; Popp, Alexander; Sitch, Stephen; Stehfest, Elke; Arneth, Almut

2018-07-01

Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land-use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land-use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land-use change. Differences between land-use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land-based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Forecast and analysis of the ratio of electric energy to terminal energy consumption for global energy internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wei; Zhong, Ming; Cheng, Ling; Jin, Lu; Shen, Si

2018-02-01

In the background of building global energy internet, it has both theoretical and realistic significance for forecasting and analysing the ratio of electric energy to terminal energy consumption. This paper firstly analysed the influencing factors of the ratio of electric energy to terminal energy and then used combination method to forecast and analyse the global proportion of electric energy. And then, construct the cointegration model for the proportion of electric energy by using influence factor such as electricity price index, GDP, economic structure, energy use efficiency and total population level. At last, this paper got prediction map of the proportion of electric energy by using the combination-forecasting model based on multiple linear regression method, trend analysis method, and variance-covariance method. This map describes the development trend of the proportion of electric energy in 2017-2050 and the proportion of electric energy in 2050 was analysed in detail using scenario analysis.

Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web.

PubMed

Niiranen, Susa; Yletyinen, Johanna; Tomczak, Maciej T; Blenckner, Thorsten; Hjerne, Olle; Mackenzie, Brian R; Müller-Karulis, Bärbel; Neumann, Thomas; Meier, H E Markus

2013-11-01

Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

EPA Science Inventory

Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

Expectations for inflationary observables: simple or natural?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musoke, Nathan; Easther, Richard

2017-12-01

We describe the general inflationary dynamics that can arise with a single, canonically coupled field where the inflaton potential is a 4-th order polynomial. This scenario yields a wide range of combinations of the empirical spectral observables, ns, r and αs. However, not all combinations are possible and next-generation cosmological experiments have the ability to rule out all inflationary scenarios based on this potential. Further, we construct inflationary priors for this potential based on physically motivated choices for its free parameters. These can be used to determine the degree of tuning associated with different combinations of ns, r and αs and will facilitate treatments of the inflationary model selection problem. Finally, we comment on the implications of these results for the naturalness of the overall inflationary paradigm. We argue that ruling out all simple, renormalizable potentials would not necessarily imply that the inflationary paradigm itself was unnatural, but that this eventuality would increase the importance of building inflationary scenarios in the context of broader paradigms of ultra-high energy physics.

Risk assessment for tephra dispersal and sedimentation: the example of four Icelandic volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biass, Sebastien; Scaini, Chiara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Smith, Kate; Folch, Arnau; Höskuldsson, Armann; Galderisi, Adriana

2014-05-01

In order to assist the elaboration of proactive measures for the management of future Icelandic volcanic eruptions, we developed a new approach to assess the impact associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation at various scales and for multiple sources. Target volcanoes are Hekla, Katla, Eyjafjallajökull and Askja, selected for their high probabilities of eruption and/or their high potential impact. We combined stratigraphic studies, probabilistic strategies and numerical modelling to develop comprehensive eruption scenarios and compile hazard maps for local ground deposition and regional atmospheric concentration using both TEPHRA2 and FALL3D models. New algorithms for the identification of comprehensive probability density functions of eruptive source parameters were developed for both short and long-lasting activity scenarios. A vulnerability assessment of socioeconomic and territorial aspects was also performed at both national and continental scales. The identification of relevant vulnerability indicators allowed for the identification of the most critical areas and territorial nodes. At a national scale, the vulnerability of economic activities and the accessibility to critical infrastructures was assessed. At a continental scale, we assessed the vulnerability of the main airline routes and airports. Resulting impact and risk were finally assessed by combining hazard and vulnerability analysis.

Security Analysis of Smart Grid Cyber Physical Infrastructures Using Modeling and Game Theoretic Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T.

Cyber physical computing infrastructures typically consist of a number of sites are interconnected. Its operation critically depends both on cyber components and physical components. Both types of components are subject to attacks of different kinds and frequencies, which must be accounted for the initial provisioning and subsequent operation of the infrastructure via information security analysis. Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, andmore » information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the electric sector failure scenarios and impact analyses by the NESCOR Working Group Study, From the Section 5 electric sector representative failure scenarios; we extracted the four generic failure scenarios and grouped them into three specific threat categories (confidentiality, integrity, and availability) to the system. These specific failure scenarios serve as a demonstration of our simulation. The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the electric sector functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the cyber physical infrastructure network with respect to CIA.« less

Cost-Effectiveness of Histamine2 Receptor Antagonists Versus Proton Pump Inhibitors for Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in Critically Ill Patients.

PubMed

Hammond, Drayton A; Kathe, Niranjan; Shah, Anuj; Martin, Bradley C

2017-01-01

To determine the cost-effectiveness of stress ulcer prophylaxis with histamine 2 receptor antagonists (H2RAs) versus proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) in critically ill and mechanically ventilated adults. A decision analytic model estimating the costs and effectiveness of stress ulcer prophylaxis (with H2RAs and PPIs) from a health care institutional perspective. Adult mixed intensive care unit (ICU) population who received an H2RA or PPI for up to 9 days. Effectiveness measures were mortality during the ICU stay and complication rate. Costs (2015 U.S. dollars) were combined to include medication regimens and untoward events associated with stress ulcer prophylaxis (pneumonia, Clostridium difficile infection, and stress-related mucosal bleeding). Costs and probabilities for complications and mortality from complications came from randomized controlled trials and observational studies. A base case scenario was developed with pooled data from an observational study and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. Scenarios based on observational and meta-analysis data alone were evaluated. Outcomes were expected and incremental costs, mortalities, and complication rates. Univariate sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the influence of inputs on cost, mortality, and complication rates. Monte Carlo simulations evaluated second-order uncertainty. In the base case scenario, the costs, complication rates, and mortality rates were $9039, 17.6%, and 2.50%, respectively, for H2RAs and $11,249, 22.0%, and 3.34%, respectively, for PPIs, indicating that H2RAs dominated PPIs. The observational study-based model provided similar results; however, in the meta-analysis-based model, H2RAs had a cost of $8364 and mortality rate of 3.2% compared with $7676 and 2.0%, respectively, for PPIs. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/death averted, H2RA therapy was superior or preferred 70.3% in the base case and 97.0% in the observational study-based scenario. PPI therapy was preferred 87.2% in the meta-analysis-based scenario. Providing stress ulcer prophylaxis with H2RA therapy may reduce costs, increase survival, and avoid complications compared with PPI therapy. This finding is highly sensitive to the pneumonia and stress-related mucosal bleeding rates and whether observational data are used to inform the model. © 2016 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.

A cost-benefit analysis of landfill mining and material recycling in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Chuanbin, E-mail: cbzhou@rcees.ac.cn; Gong, Zhe; Hu, Junsong

Highlights: • Assessing the economic feasibility of landfill mining. • We applied a cost-benefit analysis model for landfill mining. • Four material cycling and energy recovery scenarios were designed. • We used net present value to evaluate the cost-benefit efficiency. - Abstract: Landfill mining is an environmentally-friendly technology that combines the concepts of material recycling and sustainable waste management, and it has received a great deal of worldwide attention because of its significant environmental and economic potential in material recycling, energy recovery, land reclamation and pollution prevention. This work applied a cost-benefit analysis model for assessing the economic feasibility, whichmore » is important for promoting landfill mining. The model includes eight indicators of costs and nine indicators of benefits. Four landfill mining scenarios were designed and analyzed based on field data. The economic feasibility of landfill mining was then evaluated by the indicator of net present value (NPV). According to our case study of a typical old landfill mining project in China (Yingchun landfill), rental of excavation and hauling equipment, waste processing and material transportation were the top three costs of landfill mining, accounting for 88.2% of the total cost, and the average cost per unit of stored waste was 12.7 USD ton{sup −1}. The top three benefits of landfill mining were electricity generation by incineration, land reclamation and recycling soil-like materials. The NPV analysis of the four different scenarios indicated that the Yingchun landfill mining project could obtain a net positive benefit varying from 1.92 million USD to 16.63 million USD. However, the NPV was sensitive to the mode of land reuse, the availability of energy recovery facilities and the possibility of obtaining financial support by avoiding post-closure care.« less

The Hindmarsh-Rose neuron model: bifurcation analysis and piecewise-linear approximations.

PubMed

Storace, Marco; Linaro, Daniele; de Lange, Enno

2008-09-01

This paper provides a global picture of the bifurcation scenario of the Hindmarsh-Rose model. A combination between simulations and numerical continuations is used to unfold the complex bifurcation structure. The bifurcation analysis is carried out by varying two bifurcation parameters and evidence is given that the structure that is found is universal and appears for all combinations of bifurcation parameters. The information about the organizing principles and bifurcation diagrams are then used to compare the dynamics of the model with that of a piecewise-linear approximation, customized for circuit implementation. A good match between the dynamical behaviors of the models is found. These results can be used both to design a circuit implementation of the Hindmarsh-Rose model mimicking the diversity of neural response and as guidelines to predict the behavior of the model as well as its circuit implementation as a function of parameters. (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Cladistic analysis of Bantu languages: a new tree based on combined lexical and grammatical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rexová, Kateřina; Bastin, Yvonne; Frynta, Daniel

2006-04-01

The phylogeny of the Bantu languages is reconstructed by application of the cladistic methodology to the combined lexical and grammatical data (87 languages, 144 characters). A maximum parsimony tree and Bayesian analysis supported some previously recognized clades, e.g., that of eastern and southern Bantu languages. Moreover, the results revealed that Bantu languages south and east of the equatorial forest are probably monophyletic. It suggests an unorthodox scenario of Bantu expansion including (after initial radiation in their homelands and neighboring territories) just a single passage through rainforest areas followed by a subsequent divergence into major clades. The likely localization of this divergence is in the area west of the Great Lakes. It conforms to the view that demographic expansion and dispersal throughout the dry-forests and savanna regions of subequatorial Africa was associated with the acquisition of new technologies (iron metallurgy and grain cultivation).

Modeling Compound Flood Hazards in Coastal Embayments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari, H.; Schubert, J. E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Luke, A.; Matthew, R.; Sanders, B. F.

2017-12-01

Coastal cities around the world are built on lowland topography adjacent to coastal embayments and river estuaries, where multiple factors threaten increasing flood hazards (e.g. sea level rise and river flooding). Quantitative risk assessment is required for administration of flood insurance programs and the design of cost-effective flood risk reduction measures. This demands a characterization of extreme water levels such as 100 and 500 year return period events. Furthermore, hydrodynamic flood models are routinely used to characterize localized flood level intensities (i.e., local depth and velocity) based on boundary forcing sampled from extreme value distributions. For example, extreme flood discharges in the U.S. are estimated from measured flood peaks using the Log-Pearson Type III distribution. However, configuring hydrodynamic models for coastal embayments is challenging because of compound extreme flood events: events caused by a combination of extreme sea levels, extreme river discharges, and possibly other factors such as extreme waves and precipitation causing pluvial flooding in urban developments. Here, we present an approach for flood risk assessment that coordinates multivariate extreme analysis with hydrodynamic modeling of coastal embayments. First, we evaluate the significance of correlation structure between terrestrial freshwater inflow and oceanic variables; second, this correlation structure is described using copula functions in unit joint probability domain; and third, we choose a series of compound design scenarios for hydrodynamic modeling based on their occurrence likelihood. The design scenarios include the most likely compound event (with the highest joint probability density), preferred marginal scenario and reproduced time series of ensembles based on Monte Carlo sampling of bivariate hazard domain. The comparison between resulting extreme water dynamics under the compound hazard scenarios explained above provides an insight to the strengths/weaknesses of each approach and helps modelers choose the appropriate scenario that best fit to the needs of their project. The proposed risk assessment approach can help flood hazard modeling practitioners achieve a more reliable estimate of risk, by cautiously reducing the dimensionality of the hazard analysis.

Estimating the sample mean and standard deviation from the sample size, median, range and/or interquartile range.

PubMed

Wan, Xiang; Wang, Wenqian; Liu, Jiming; Tong, Tiejun

2014-12-19

In systematic reviews and meta-analysis, researchers often pool the results of the sample mean and standard deviation from a set of similar clinical trials. A number of the trials, however, reported the study using the median, the minimum and maximum values, and/or the first and third quartiles. Hence, in order to combine results, one may have to estimate the sample mean and standard deviation for such trials. In this paper, we propose to improve the existing literature in several directions. First, we show that the sample standard deviation estimation in Hozo et al.'s method (BMC Med Res Methodol 5:13, 2005) has some serious limitations and is always less satisfactory in practice. Inspired by this, we propose a new estimation method by incorporating the sample size. Second, we systematically study the sample mean and standard deviation estimation problem under several other interesting settings where the interquartile range is also available for the trials. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed methods through simulation studies for the three frequently encountered scenarios, respectively. For the first two scenarios, our method greatly improves existing methods and provides a nearly unbiased estimate of the true sample standard deviation for normal data and a slightly biased estimate for skewed data. For the third scenario, our method still performs very well for both normal data and skewed data. Furthermore, we compare the estimators of the sample mean and standard deviation under all three scenarios and present some suggestions on which scenario is preferred in real-world applications. In this paper, we discuss different approximation methods in the estimation of the sample mean and standard deviation and propose some new estimation methods to improve the existing literature. We conclude our work with a summary table (an Excel spread sheet including all formulas) that serves as a comprehensive guidance for performing meta-analysis in different situations.

Hydrothermal Liquefaction Treatment Hazard Analysis Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

Hazard analyses were performed to evaluate the modular hydrothermal liquefaction treatment system. The hazard assessment process was performed in 2 stages. An initial assessment utilizing Hazard Identification and Preliminary Hazards Analysis (PHA) techniques identified areas with significant or unique hazards (process safety-related hazards) that fall outside of the normal operating envelope of PNNL and warranted additional analysis. The subsequent assessment was based on a qualitative What-If analysis. The analysis was augmented, as necessary, by additional quantitative analysis for scenarios involving a release of hazardous material or energy with the potential for affecting the public. The following selected hazardous scenarios receivedmore » increased attention: •Scenarios involving a release of hazardous material or energy, controls were identified in the What-If analysis table that prevent the occurrence or mitigate the effects of the release. •Scenarios with significant consequences that could impact personnel outside the immediate operations area, quantitative analyses were performed to determine the potential magnitude of the scenario. The set of “critical controls” were identified for these scenarios (see Section 4) which prevent the occurrence or mitigate the effects of the release of events with significant consequences.« less

Resolving the interactions between population density and air pollution emissions controls in the San Joaquin Valley, USA.

PubMed

Hixson, Mark; Mahmud, Abdullah; Hu, Jianlin; Kleeman, Michael J

2012-05-01

The effectiveness of emissions control programs designed to reduce concentrations of airborne particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) in California's San Joaquin Valley was studied in the year 2030 under three growth scenarios: low, medium, and high population density. Base-case inventories for each choice of population density were created using a coupled emissions modeling system that simultaneously considered interactions between land use and transportation, area source, and point source emissions. The ambient PM2.5 response to each combination of population density and emissions control was evaluated using a regional chemical transport model over a 3-week winter stagnation episode. Comparisons between scenarios were based on regional average and population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations. In the absence of any emissions control program, population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5 in the future San Joaquin Valley are lowest undergrowth scenarios that emphasize low population density. A complete ban on wood burning and a 90% reduction in emissions from food cooking operations and diesel engines must occur before medium- to high-density growth scenarios result in lower population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5. These trends partly reflect the fact that existing downtown urban cores that naturally act as anchor points for new high-density growth in the San Joaquin Valley are located close to major transportation corridors for goods movement. Adding growth buffers around transportation corridors had little impact in the current analysis, since the 8-km resolution of the chemical transport model already provided an artificial buffer around major emissions sources. Assuming that future emissions controls will greatly reduce or eliminate emissions from residential wood burning, food cooking, and diesel engines, the 2030 growth scenario using "as-planned" (medium) population density achieves the lowest population-weighted average PM2.5 concentration in the future San Joaquin Valley during a severe winter stagnation event. The San Joaquin Valley is one of the most heavily polluted air basins in the United States that are projected to experience strong population growth in the coming decades. The best plan to improve air quality in the region combines medium- or high-density population growth with rigorous emissions controls. In the absences of controls, high-density growth leads to increased population exposure to PM2.5 compared with low-density growth scenarios (urban sprawl).

Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in RCP-like scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuwah, Clifford; van Noije, Twan; van Vuuren, Detlef; Hazeleger, Wilco; Strunk, Achim; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; van Vliet, Jasper

2013-04-01

Estimation of future emissions of short-lived trace gases and aerosols from human activities is a main source of uncertainty in projections of future air quality and climate forcing. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), however, all assume that worldwide ambitious air pollution control policies will be implemented in the coming decades. In this study, we therefore explore the consequences of four alternative emission scenarios generated using the IMAGE integrated assessment model following the methods used to generate the RCPs. These scenarios combine low and high air pollution variants of the scenarios with radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 2.6 W/m2 and 6.0 W/m2 (the high air pollution variants assume no improvement in emission factors, representing a hypothetical upper end of emission levels). Analysis using the global atmospheric chemistry and transport model TM5 shows that climate mitigation and air pollution control policy variants studied here have similar large-scale effects on the concentrations of ozone and black carbon; the impact of climate policy, however, has a stronger impact on sulphate concentrations. Air pollution control measures could significantly reduce the warming by tropospheric ozone and black carbon and the cooling by sulphate already in 2020, and on the longer term contribute to enhanced warming by methane. These effects tend to cancel each other at the global scale. According to our estimates the effect of the worldwide implementation of air pollution control measures on the total global mean direct radiative forcing in 2050 is +0.09 W/m2 in the 6.0 W/m2 scenario and -0.16 W/m2 in the 2.6 W/m2 scenario.

ICU early physical rehabilitation programs: financial modeling of cost savings.

PubMed

Lord, Robert K; Mayhew, Christopher R; Korupolu, Radha; Mantheiy, Earl C; Friedman, Michael A; Palmer, Jeffrey B; Needham, Dale M

2013-03-01

To evaluate the potential annual net cost savings of implementing an ICU early rehabilitation program. Using data from existing publications and actual experience with an early rehabilitation program in the Johns Hopkins Hospital Medical ICU, we developed a model of net financial savings/costs and presented results for ICUs with 200, 600, 900, and 2,000 annual admissions, accounting for both conservative- and best-case scenarios. Our example scenario provided a projected financial analysis of the Johns Hopkins Medical ICU early rehabilitation program, with 900 admissions per year, using actual reductions in length of stay achieved by this program. U.S.-based adult ICUs. Financial modeling of the introduction of an ICU early rehabilitation program. Net cost savings generated in our example scenario, with 900 annual admissions and actual length of stay reductions of 22% and 19% for the ICU and floor, respectively, were $817,836. Sensitivity analyses, which used conservative- and best-case scenarios for length of stay reductions and varied the per-day ICU and floor costs, across ICUs with 200-2,000 annual admissions, yielded financial projections ranging from -$87,611 (net cost) to $3,763,149 (net savings). Of the 24 scenarios included in these sensitivity analyses, 20 (83%) demonstrated net savings, with a relatively small net cost occurring in the remaining four scenarios, mostly when simultaneously combining the most conservative assumptions. A financial model, based on actual experience and published data, projects that investment in an ICU early rehabilitation program can generate net financial savings for U.S. hospitals. Even under the most conservative assumptions, the projected net cost of implementing such a program is modest relative to the substantial improvements in patient outcomes demonstrated by ICU early rehabilitation programs.

Modelling the impacts of global change on concentrations of Escherichia coli in an urban river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalliffier-Verne, Isabelle; Leconte, Robert; Huaringa-Alvarez, Uriel; Heniche, Mourad; Madoux-Humery, Anne-Sophie; Autixier, Laurène; Galarneau, Martine; Servais, Pierre; Prévost, Michèle; Dorner, Sarah

2017-10-01

Discharges of combined sewer system overflows (CSOs) affect water quality in drinking water sources despite increasing regulation and discharge restrictions. A hydrodynamic model was applied to simulate the transport and dispersion of fecal contaminants from CSO discharges and to quantify the impacts of climate and population changes on the water quality of the river used as a drinking water source in Québec, Canada. The dispersion model was used to quantify Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations at drinking water intakes. Extreme flows during high and low water events were based on a frequency analysis in current and future climate scenarios. The increase of the number of discharges was quantified in current and future climate scenarios with regards to the frequency of overflows observed between 2009 and 2012. For future climate scenarios, effects of an increase of population were estimated according to current population growth statistics, independently of local changes in precipitation that are more difficult to predict than changes to regional scale hydrology. Under ;business-as-usual; scenarios restricting increases in CSO discharge frequency, mean E. coli concentrations at downstream drinking water intakes are expected to increase by up to 87% depending on the future climate scenario and could lead to changes in drinking water treatment requirements for the worst case scenarios. The greatest uncertainties are related to future local discharge loads. Climate change adaptation with regards to drinking water quality must focus on characterizing the impacts of global change at a local scale. Source water protection planning must consider the impacts of climate and population change to avoid further degradation of water quality.

Evaluation of ecosystem service based on scenario simulation of land use in Yunnan Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hong; Liao, Xiaoli; Zhai, Tianlin

2018-04-01

Climate change and rapid urbanization are important factors restricting future land use. Situational analysis, as an important foundation for the optimization of land use, needs to focus on the impact of climate factors and socio-economic factors. In this paper, the Markov model and the DLS (Simulation of Land System Dynamics) model are combined for the first time, and the land use pattern in 2020 is simulated based on the data of land use in 2000 and 2010 as well as the climate, soil, topography and socio-economic factors of Yunnan Province. In his paper, we took Yunnan Province as the case study area, and selected 12 driving factors by logistic regression method, then the land use demands and layout of Yunnan Province in 2020 has been forecasted and simulated under business as usual (BAU) scenario and farmland protection (FP) scenario and the changes in ecosystem service value has been calculated. The result shows that: (1) after the regression analysis and ROC (Relative Operating Characteristics) test, the 12 factors selected in this paper have a strong ability to explain the land use change in Yunnan Province. (2) Under the two scenarios, the significant reduction of arable land area is a common feature of land use change in Yunnan Province in the future, and its main land use type will be construction land. However, under FP scenario, the current situation where construction land encroach on arable land will be improved. Compared with the change from 2000 to 2010, the trend of arable land, forest land, water area, construction land and unused land will be the same under the two scenarios, whereas the change trend of grassland was opposite. (3) From 2000 to 2020, the value of ecosystem services in Yunnan Province is on the rise, but the ecosystem service value under FP scenario is higher than that of the ecosystem services under BAU scenario. In general, land use in 2020 in Yunnan Province continues the pattern of 2010, but there are also significant spatial differences. Under the BAU scenario, the construction land is mainly in the south of Lijiang City and the northeastern part of Kunming. Under the FP scenario, the new construction land is concentrated near the Lashi dam in northern Yunnan Province, and the high-quality arable land in the valley will be better protected. The research results can provide reference for the optimization of land use pattern in Yunnan Province, and provide scientific basis for land use management and planning. Based on the value of ecosystem services, we should implement the policy of strict protection of arable land, both to ensure food supply and promote the healthy development of ecological environment.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Braced Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mourhatch, Ramses

This thesis examines collapse risk of tall steel braced frame buildings using rupture-to-rafters simulations due to suite of San Andreas earthquakes. Two key advancements in this work are the development of (i) a rational methodology for assigning scenario earthquake probabilities and (ii) an artificial correction-free approach to broadband ground motion simulation. The work can be divided into the following sections: earthquake source modeling, earthquake probability calculations, ground motion simulations, building response, and performance analysis. As a first step the kinematic source inversions of past earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6-8 are used to simulate 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. For each scenario earthquake a 30-year occurrence probability is calculated and we present a rational method to redistribute the forecast earthquake probabilities from UCERF to the simulated scenario earthquake. We illustrate the inner workings of the method through an example involving earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in southern California. Next, three-component broadband ground motion histories are computed at 636 sites in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area by superposing short-period (0.2s-2.0s) empirical Green's function synthetics on top of long-period (> 2.0s) spectral element synthetics. We superimpose these seismograms on low-frequency seismograms, computed from kinematic source models using the spectral element method, to produce broadband seismograms. Using the ground motions at 636 sites for the 60 scenario earthquakes, 3-D nonlinear analysis of several variants of an 18-story steel braced frame building, designed for three soil types using the 1994 and 1997 Uniform Building Code provisions and subjected to these ground motions, are conducted. Model performance is classified into one of five performance levels: Immediate Occupancy, Life Safety, Collapse Prevention, Red-Tagged, and Model Collapse. The results are combined with the 30-year probability of occurrence of the San Andreas scenario earthquakes using the PEER performance based earthquake engineering framework to determine the probability of exceedance of these limit states over the next 30 years.

Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

PubMed

Kebede, Abiy S; Nicholls, Robert J; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Iñaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A; Hill, Chris T; Hutton, Craig W; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N; Macadam, Ian; Palmer, Matthew; Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L; Vincent, Katharine; Whitehead, Paul W

2018-09-01

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Practical quantification of necrosis in histological whole-slide images.

PubMed

Homeyer, André; Schenk, Andrea; Arlt, Janine; Dahmen, Uta; Dirsch, Olaf; Hahn, Horst K

2013-06-01

Since the histological quantification of necrosis is a common task in medical research and practice, we evaluate different image analysis methods for quantifying necrosis in whole-slide images. In a practical usage scenario, we assess the impact of different classification algorithms and feature sets on both accuracy and computation time. We show how a well-chosen combination of multiresolution features and an efficient postprocessing step enables the accurate quantification necrosis in gigapixel images in less than a minute. The results are general enough to be applied to other areas of histological image analysis as well. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of CDMA system capacity for mobile satellite system applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Partrick O.; Geraniotis, Evaggelos A.

1988-01-01

A specific Direct-Sequence/Pseudo-Noise (DS/PN) Code-Division Multiple-Access (CDMA) mobile satellite system (MSAT) architecture is discussed. The performance of this system is evaluated in terms of the maximum number of active MSAT subscribers that can be supported at a given uncoded bit-error probability. The evaluation decouples the analysis of the multiple-access capability (i.e., the number of instantaneous user signals) from the analysis of the multiple-access mutliplier effect allowed by the use of CDMA with burst-modem operation. We combine the results of these two analyses and present numerical results for scenarios of interest to the mobile satellite system community.

Search for neutral MSSM Higgs bosons decaying into a pair of bottom quarks

DOE PAGES

Khachatryan, Vardan

2015-11-11

A search for neutral Higgs bosons decaying into a bb¯ quark pair and produced in association with at least one additional b quark is presented. This signature is sensitive to the Higgs sector of the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) with large values of the parameter tan β. The analysis is based on data from proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV collected with the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb –1. The results are combined with a previous analysis based on 7 TeV data. No signal is observed. Stringent uppermore » limits on the cross section times branching fraction are derived for Higgs bosons with masses up to 900 GeV, and the results are interpreted within different MSSM benchmark scenarios, m h max, m h mod+, m h mod–, light-stau and light-stop. Observed 95% confidence level upper limits on tan β, ranging from 14 to 50, are obtained in the m h mod+ benchmark scenario.« less

Search for weakly-produced supersymmetry in same-sign di-lepton final state at the square root ofs = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hines, Elizabeth J.

A search for weakly-produced Chargino1, Neutralino2 supersymmetric particles decaying to two final state electrons or muons with the same electric charge is presented. The analysis is performed on 20.3fb-1 of integrated luminosity collected in 2012 with the Atlas Detector at the Large Hadron Collider, running at √s = 8 TeV. Pairs of like-sign leptons are collected and discriminated against background using Boosted Decision Trees trained on compressed supersymmetric simplified models. No significant excesses above background expectations are observed. The 95% confidence limits are placed on Chargino1 Neutralino2 pairs decaying via W and Z bosons and via intermediate sleptons with two different assumptions on the relative slepton mass. In the most optimistic scenarios considered, Chargino1 below 410 GeV are excluded assuming a massless LSP. In the compressed scenario, Chargino1 20 GeV. Results from this analysis are also combined with those from a complementary search in the three lepton final state.

Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

PubMed

He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

2015-11-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Local and global analysis of a speculative housing market with production lag

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campisi, Giovanni; Naimzada, Ahmad K.; Tramontana, Fabio

2018-05-01

We extend the model of Dieci and Westerhoff [J. Evol. Econ. 22(2), 303-329 (2012)], where the authors analyse a speculative housing market populated by heterogeneous interacting agents described by a two dimensional nonlinear discrete time dynamical system. They show the emergence of complicated dynamics through the occurrence of bifurcations for particular parameter combinations. We enlarge their model in several ways. On one hand, we introduce time lag in the supply side and we consider two new scenarios characterised by agents' expectations formation. First, naive expectations instead of perfect foresight are considered, while in the second scenario, we study a mix between the model of Dieci and Westerhoff [J. Evol. Econ. 22(2), 303-329 (2012)] and the one we propose. As a consequence, we, analytically and numerically, explain the appearance of instability in the housing market providing conditions on the parameters that lead to a bifurcation. On the other hand, thanks to further numerical simulations, we conduct a global analysis providing the structure of the basin of attractions of the map showing coexistence of attractors.

Future electro-optical sensors and processing in urban operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grönwall, Christina; Schwering, Piet B.; Rantakokko, Jouni; Benoist, Koen W.; Kemp, Rob A. W.; Steinvall, Ove; Letalick, Dietmar; Björkert, Stefan

2013-10-01

In the electro-optical sensors and processing in urban operations (ESUO) study we pave the way for the European Defence Agency (EDA) group of Electro-Optics experts (IAP03) for a common understanding of the optimal distribution of processing functions between the different platforms. Combinations of local, distributed and centralized processing are proposed. In this way one can match processing functionality to the required power, and available communication systems data rates, to obtain the desired reaction times. In the study, three priority scenarios were defined. For these scenarios, present-day and future sensors and signal processing technologies were studied. The priority scenarios were camp protection, patrol and house search. A method for analyzing information quality in single and multi-sensor systems has been applied. A method for estimating reaction times for transmission of data through the chain of command has been proposed and used. These methods are documented and can be used to modify scenarios, or be applied to other scenarios. Present day data processing is organized mainly locally. Very limited exchange of information with other platforms is present; this is performed mainly at a high information level. Main issues that arose from the analysis of present-day systems and methodology are the slow reaction time due to the limited field of view of present-day sensors and the lack of robust automated processing. Efficient handover schemes between wide and narrow field of view sensors may however reduce the delay times. The main effort in the study was in forecasting the signal processing of EO-sensors in the next ten to twenty years. Distributed processing is proposed between hand-held and vehicle based sensors. This can be accompanied by cloud processing on board several vehicles. Additionally, to perform sensor fusion on sensor data originating from different platforms, and making full use of UAV imagery, a combination of distributed and centralized processing is essential. There is a central role for sensor fusion of heterogeneous sensors in future processing. The changes that occur in the urban operations of the future due to the application of these new technologies will be the improved quality of information, with shorter reaction time, and with lower operator load.

Effects of combined dredging-related stressors on sponges: a laboratory approach using realistic scenarios.

PubMed

Pineda, Mari-Carmen; Strehlow, Brian; Kamp, Jasmine; Duckworth, Alan; Jones, Ross; Webster, Nicole S

2017-07-12

Dredging can cause increased suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs), light attenuation and sedimentation in marine communities. In order to determine the combined effects of dredging-related pressures on adult sponges, three species spanning different nutritional modes and morphologies were exposed to 5 treatment levels representing realistic dredging scenarios. Most sponges survived under low to moderate turbidity scenarios (SSCs of ≤ 33 mg L -1 , and a daily light integral of ≥0.5 mol photons m -2 d -1 ) for up to 28 d. However, under the highest turbidity scenario (76 mg L -1 , 0.1 mol photons m -2 d -1 ) there was 20% and 90% mortality of the phototrophic sponges Cliona orientalis and Carteriospongia foliascens respectively, and tissue regression in the heterotrophic Ianthella basta. All three sponge species exhibited mechanisms to effectively tolerate dredging-related pressures in the short term (e.g. oscula closure, mucus production and tissue regression), although reduced lipids and deterioration of sponge health suggest that longer term exposure to similar conditions is likely to result in higher mortality. These results suggest that the combination of high SSCs and low light availability can accelerate mortality, increasing the probability of biological effects, although there is considerable interspecies variability in how adult sponges respond to dredging pressures.

Parents’ Aggressive Influences and Children's Aggressive Problem Solutions with Peers

PubMed Central

Duman, Sarah; Margolin, Gayla

2009-01-01

This study examined children's aggressive and assertive solutions to hypothetical peer scenarios in relation to parents’ responses to similar hypothetical social scenarios and parents’ actual marital aggression. The study included 118 9−10 year old children, and their mothers and fathers. Children's aggressive solutions correlated with same-sex parents’ actual marital aggression. For children with mothers who exhibit low actual marital aggression, mothers’ aggressive solutions to hypothetical situations corresponded with children's tendencies to propose aggressive but not assertive solutions. In a 3-way interaction, fathers’ aggressive solutions to peer scenarios and marital aggression, combined, exacerbated girls’ aggressive problem solving, but had the opposite effect for boys. Discussion addresses the complexity, particularly with respect to parent and child gender combinations, in understanding parents’ aggressive influences on children's peer relationships. PMID:17206880

Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Long-Tailed Climate Sensitivity Probability Density Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roshan, E.; Mohammadi Khabbazan, M.; Held, H.

2016-12-01

Solar radiation management (SRM) might be able to reduce the anthropogenic global mean temperature rise but unable to do so for other climate variables such as precipitation, particularly with respect to regional disparities due to changes in planetary energy budget. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that trades off the expected welfare-loss from climate policies costs against the climate risks from exceeding an environmental target. Here, in both global- and `Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we study the optimal mix of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic knowledge about climate sensitivity, in our numerics ranging from 1.01°C to 7.17°C. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including temperature risk, global and regional precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized in three scenarios, considering a convex combination of climate risks: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. Our global results represent 100%, 65%, and 90% compliance with 2°C-temperature target and simultaneously 0%, 100%, and 100% compliance with 2°C-compatible-precipitation corridor respectively in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios. On the other hand, our regional results emphasize that SRM would alleviate the global mean temperature to be complied with 2°C-temperature target for about 100%, 95%, and 95% of climate sensitivities in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios, respectively. However, half of the regions suffer a very high precipitation risks when the society only cares about global temperature reduction in temperature-risk-only scenario. Our results indicate that although SRM might almost substitute for mitigation in the global analysis, it only saves about a half of the welfare-loss in a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks.

Bio-physical vs. Economic Uncertainty in the Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on World Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertel, T. W.; Lobell, D. B.

2010-12-01

Accumulating evidence suggests that agricultural production could be greatly affected by climate change, but there remains little quantitative understanding of how these agricultural impacts would affect economic livelihoods in poor countries. The recent paper by Hertel, Burke and Lobell (GEC, 2010) considers three scenarios of agricultural impacts of climate change, corresponding to the fifth, fiftieth, and ninety fifth percentiles of projected yield distributions for the world’s crops in 2030. They evaluate the resulting changes in global commodity prices, national economic welfare, and the incidence of poverty in a set of 15 developing countries. Although the small price changes under the medium scenario are consistent with previous findings, their low productivity scenario reveals the potential for much larger food price changes than reported in recent studies which have hitherto focused on the most likely outcomes. The poverty impacts of price changes under the extremely adverse scenario are quite heterogeneous and very significant in some population strata. They conclude that it is critical to look beyond central case climate shocks and beyond a simple focus on yields and highly aggregated poverty impacts. In this paper, we conduct a more formal, systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA) with respect to uncertainty in the biophysical impacts of climate change on agriculture, by explicitly specifying joint distributions for global yield changes - this time focusing on 2050. This permits us to place confidence intervals on the resulting price impacts and poverty results which reflect the uncertainty inherited from the biophysical side of the analysis. We contrast this with the economic uncertainty inherited from the global general equilibrium model (GTAP), by undertaking SSA with respect to the behavioral parameters in that model. This permits us to assess which type of uncertainty is more important for regional price and poverty outcomes. Finally, we undertake a combined SSA, wherein climate change-induced productivity shocks are permitted to interact with the uncertain economic parameters. This permits us to examine potential interactions between the two sources of uncertainty.

An economic assessment of foot and mouth disease in Japan.

PubMed

Hayama, Y; Osada, Y; Oushiki, D; Tsutsui, T

2017-04-01

A large-scale foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Japan in 2010 caused severe economic losses for livestock and related industries. In this paper, the authors develop a clear and usable framework to estimate the economic impact of this FMD outbreak. An economic analysis is then conducted by combining this framework with an epidemiological model. The framework estimates the direct and indirect costs to livestock and related industries by applying an input-output model, as well as by addressing expenditure on disease control. The direct cost to the livestock industry was estimated at 51.2 billion Japanese yen (JPY), engendering an indirect cost to related industries of JPY 25.5 billion. The expenditure for disease control activities was estimated at JPY 8.2 billion. The total impact of the 2010 FMD epidemic was estimated at almost JPY 85 billion. Within the economic analysis, the authors evaluate several control measure scenarios: a baseline scenario, which assumes that the rapid disease spread observed in the early phase of the 2010 FMD epidemic would continue; prompt culling within 24 hours; early detection of the first case; and emergency vaccination within a radius of 10 km around the affected farms in either seven or 28 days. Prompt culling and early detection were superior from an economic point of view, reducing the total economic impact to 30% and 2% of that in the baseline scenario, respectively. Compared with these scenarios, vaccination was less cost effective. However, vaccination suppressed the speed of disease spread and shortened the duration of the epidemic, suggesting its potential effectiveness in curbing rapid disease spread in a densely populated area.

The ALMA CONOPS project: the impact of funding decisions on observatory performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibsen, Jorge; Hibbard, John; Filippi, Giorgio

2014-08-01

In time when every penny counts, many organizations are facing the question of how much scientific impact a budget cut can have or, putting it in more general terms, which is the science impact of alternative (less costly) operational modes. In reply to such question posted by the governing bodies, the ALMA project had to develop a methodology (ALMA Concepts for Operations, CONOPS) that attempts to measure the impact that alternative operational scenarios may have on the overall scientific production of the Observatory. Although the analysis and the results are ALMA specific, the developed approach is rather general and provides a methodology for a cost-performance analysis of alternatives before any radical alterations to the operations model are adopted. This paper describes the key aspects of the methodology: a) the definition of the Figures of Merit (FoMs) for the assessment of quantitative science performance impacts as well as qualitative impacts, and presents a methodology using these FoMs to evaluate the cost and impact of the different operational scenarios; b) the definition of a REFERENCE operational baseline; c) the identification of Alternative Scenarios each replacing one or more concepts in the REFERENCE by a different concept that has a lower cost and some level of scientific and/or operational impact; d) the use of a Cost-Performance plane to graphically combine the effects that the alternative scenarios can have in terms of cost reduction and affected performance. Although is a firstorder assessment, we believe this approach is useful for comparing different operational models and to understand the cost performance impact of these choices. This can be used to take decision to meet budget cuts as well as in evaluating possible new emergent opportunities.

Analysis of the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of best management practices for controlling sediment yield: A case study of the Joumine watershed, Tunisia.

PubMed

Mtibaa, Slim; Hotta, Norifumi; Irie, Mitsuteru

2018-03-01

Soil erosion can be reduced through the strategic selection and placement of best management practices (BMPs) in critical source areas (CSAs). In the present study, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to identify CSAs and investigate the effectiveness of different BMPs in reducing sediment yield in the Joumine watershed, an agricultural river catchment located in northern Tunisia. A cost-benefit analysis (CBA) was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different BMP scenarios. The objective of the present study was to determine the most cost-effective management scenario for controlling sediment yield. The model performance for the simulation of streamflow and sediment yield at the outlet of the Joumine watershed was good and satisfactory, respectively. The model indicated that most of the sediment was originated from the cultivated upland area. About 34% of the catchment area consisted of CSAs that were affected by high to very high soil erosion risk (sediment yield >10t/ha/year). Contour ridges were found to be the most effective individual BMP in terms of sediment yield reduction. At the watershed level, implementing contour ridges in the CSAs reduced sediment yield by 59%. Combinations of BMP scenarios were more cost-effective than the contour ridges alone. Combining buffer strips (5-m width) with other BMPs depending on land slope (> 20% slope: conversion to olive orchards; 10-20% slope: contour ridges; 5-10% slope: grass strip cropping) was the most effective approach in terms of sediment yield reduction and economic benefits. This approach reduced sediment yield by 61.84% with a benefit/cost ratio of 1.61. Compared with the cost of dredging, BMPs were more cost-effective for reducing sediment loads to the Joumine reservoir, located downstream of the catchment. Our findings may contribute to ensure the sustainability of future conservation programs in Tunisian regions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Screening for and Managing Identified Hypertension for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Vietnam

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Thi-Phuong-Lan; Wright, E. Pamela; Nguyen, Thanh-Trung; Schuiling-Veninga, C. C. M.; Bijlsma, M. J.; Nguyen, Thi-Bach-Yen; Postma, M. J.

2016-01-01

Objective To inform development of guidelines for hypertension management in Vietnam, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different strategies on screening for hypertension in preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods A decision tree was combined with a Markov model to measure incremental cost-effectiveness of different approaches to hypertension screening. Values used as input parameters for the model were taken from different sources. Various screening intervals (one-off, annually, biannually) and starting ages to screen (35, 45 or 55 years) and coverage of treatment were analysed. We ran both a ten-year and a lifetime horizon. Input parameters for the models were extracted from local and regional data. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate parameter uncertainty. A threshold of three times GDP per capita was applied. Results Cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained varied in different screening scenarios. In a ten-year horizon, the cost-effectiveness of screening for hypertension ranged from cost saving to Int$ 758,695 per QALY gained. For screening of men starting at 55 years, all screening scenarios gave a high probability of being cost-effective. For screening of females starting at 55 years, the probability of favourable cost-effectiveness was 90% with one-off screening. In a lifetime horizon, cost per QALY gained was lower than the threshold of Int$ 15,883 in all screening scenarios among males. Similar results were found in females when starting screening at 55 years. Starting screening in females at 45 years had a high probability of being cost-effective if screening biannually was combined with increasing coverage of treatment by 20% or even if sole biannual screening was considered. Conclusion From a health economic perspective, integrating screening for hypertension into routine medical examination and related coverage by health insurance could be recommended. Screening for hypertension has a high probability of being cost-effective in preventing CVD. An adequate screening strategy can best be selected based on age, sex and screening interval. PMID:27192051

Apples to Apples: Equivalent-Reliability Power Systems Across Diverse Resource Mix Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stephen, Gordon W; Frew, Bethany A; Sigler, Devon

Electricity market research is highly price sensitive, and prices are strongly influenced by balance of supply and demand. This work looks at how to combine capacity expansion models and reliability assessment tools to assess equivalent-reliability power systems across diverse resource mix scenarios.

SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bush, B.; Melaina, M.; Penev, M.

This report describes the development and analysis of detailed temporal and spatial scenarios for early market hydrogen fueling infrastructure clustering and fuel cell electric vehicle rollout using the Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization and Analysis (SERA) model. The report provides an overview of the SERA scenario development framework and discusses the approach used to develop the nationwidescenario.

AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSIS OF FARMINGTON BAY WETLANDS IN THE GREAT SALT LAKE

EPA Science Inventory

An Alternative Futures Analysis (AFA) was conducted to evaluate tradeoffs between landscape design scenarios and ecological services for Farmington Bay, Great Salt Lake (GSL), wetlands. Model scenarios included plan trend and conservation "futures" scenarios projected to 2030. ...

A new scenario-based approach to damage detection using operational modal parameter estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, J. B.; Brincker, R.; López-Aenlle, M.; Overgaard, C. F.; Kloborg, K.

2017-09-01

In this paper a vibration-based damage localization and quantification method, based on natural frequencies and mode shapes, is presented. The proposed technique is inspired by a damage assessment methodology based solely on the sensitivity of mass-normalized experimental determined mode shapes. The present method differs by being based on modal data extracted by means of Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) combined with a reasonable Finite Element (FE) representation of the test structure and implemented in a scenario-based framework. Besides a review of the basic methodology this paper addresses fundamental theoretical as well as practical considerations which are crucial to the applicability of a given vibration-based damage assessment configuration. Lastly, the technique is demonstrated on an experimental test case using automated OMA. Both the numerical study as well as the experimental test case presented in this paper are restricted to perturbations concerning mass change.

Control of a flexible bracing manipulator: Integration of current research work to realize the bracing manipulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwon, Dong-Soo

1991-01-01

All research results about flexible manipulator control were integrated to show a control scenario of a bracing manipulator. First, dynamic analysis of a flexible manipulator was done for modeling. Second, from the dynamic model, the inverse dynamic equation was derived, and the time domain inverse dynamic method was proposed for the calculation of the feedforward torque and the desired flexible coordinate trajectories. Third, a tracking controller was designed by combining the inverse dynamic feedforward control with the joint feedback control. The control scheme was applied to the tip position control of a single link flexible manipulator for zero and non-zero initial condition cases. Finally, the contact control scheme was added to the position tracking control. A control scenario of a bracing manipulator is provided and evaluated through simulation and experiment on a single link flexible manipulator.

Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

2016-04-01

Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as an important element in management and decision-making as problems in today's world are complex and require knowledge from many different domains and disciplines. Participation is also said to be a process of collective learning that changes the way people think and act which is a relevant point in forming appropriate region-specific climate adaptation strategies. The scenarios are based on an analysis of data on recent states and trends in major local sector developments concerning absolute and relative employment and value creation as well as on distinct socio-demographic developments in the region. Categories discussed in the scenario workshop cover inter alia institutions and governance, demographics, production and demand, markets, value-chains and trade, scientific and technological innovations, education and health. The derived stakeholder-based socio-economic scenarios were, in a second step, matched with the Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) in order to frame the locally produced scenarios with global narratives. Both strains were, in a third step, combined and backed-up by scientific literature in order to build the local socio-economic scenarios that served as background information in the analysis of risks, vulnerability and appropriate adaptation measures in the case-study region.

Modelling the influence of climate change on the chemical concentrations in the Baltic Sea region with the POPCYCLING-Baltic model.

PubMed

Kong, Deguo; MacLeod, Matthew; Cousins, Ian T

2014-09-01

The effect of projected future changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation and particulate organic carbon on concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea regional environment is evaluated using the POPCYCLING-Baltic multimedia chemical fate model. Steady-state concentrations of hypothetical perfectly persistent chemicals with property combinations that encompass the entire plausible range for non-ionizing organic substances are modelled under two alternative climate change scenarios (IPCC A2 and B2) and compared to a baseline climate scenario. The contributions of individual climate parameters are deduced in model experiments in which only one of the four parameters is changed from the baseline scenario. Of the four selected climate parameters, temperature is the most influential, and wind speed is least. Chemical concentrations in the Baltic region are projected to change by factors of up to 3.0 compared to the baseline climate scenario. For chemicals with property combinations similar to legacy persistent organic pollutants listed by the Stockholm Convention, modelled concentration ratios between two climate change scenarios and the baseline scenario range from factors of 0.5 to 2.0. This study is a first step toward quantitatively assessing climate change-induced changes in the environmental concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea region. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Scenario analysis--a method for long-term planning].

PubMed

Stavem, K

2000-01-10

Scenarios are known from the film industry, as detailed descriptions of films. This has given name to scenario analysis, a method for long term planning using descriptions of composite future pictures. This article is an introduction to the scenario method. Scenarios describe plausible, not necessarily probable, developments. They focus on problems and questions that decision makers must be aware of and prepare to deal with, and the consequences of alternative decisions. Scenarios are used in corporate and governmental planning, and they can be useful and complementary to traditional planning and extrapolation of past experience. The method is particularly useful in a rapidly changing world with shifting external conditions.

Use of computer-aided testing in the investigation of pilot response to critical in-flight events. Volume 2: Appendix

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rockwell, T. H.; Giffin, W. C.

1982-01-01

Computer displays using PLATO are illustrated. Diagnostic scenarios are described. A sample of subject data is presented. Destination diversion displays, a combined destination, diversion scenario, and critical in-flight event (CIFE) data collection/subject testing system are presented.

77 FR 41417 - Regulatory Science Considerations for Medical Countermeasure Radiation Biodosimetry Devices

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-13

... irradiation scenarios? F. How should the impact of delays in sampling, delays in testing, combined injury, and... biodosimeter for use in a mass exposure scenario, the development of proper radiation biodosimetry tools is a... clinical animal model testing might be necessary to demonstrate radiation biodosimeter performance? D...

The role of scenario analysis in water resources management in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W. K.; Li, W.; Dong, X.

2011-12-01

With the rapid increase of world population and food demand, the demand for water resources is also increasing. At the same time shifts in rain patterns due to global climate change make the water resources situation more uncertain. A global water crisis can therefore not be excluded. The socio-economic and environmental problems induced by such a water crisis are especially prominent in arid and semiarid regions. The Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang province is a typical case study in China's arid and semi-arid areas, where rainfall is scarce and evaporation is extremely high. Thus its water resources have been under great pressure to satisfy the increasing water demand of agriculture and urban and industrial expansion in the last decades. The development has been accompanied by a number of environmental problems. Yanqi Basin is an important cultivated area which is irrigated by water diverted from rivers. Because of the long-term flood irrigation and an inefficient drainage system, the groundwater level under the cultivated area rose, accelerating the phreatic evaporation and leading to increased soil salinization. Simultaneously, the water quantity and quality of Boston Lake have been impaired in past years because of the decreased river discharge and the increased salt flux contained in the drainage discharge. Thus the ecosystems depending on the inflow to and outflow from the lake suffered. The riverine forests in the downstream area were degraded due to declining groundwater levels, and aquatic life as well as downstream water users had to cope with deteriorating water quality. The big challenge for decision makers in the basin is how to balance the justified requirements of agriculture, industrial development and the ecosystem. In order to provide a scientific basis to the decision making process, a scenario analysis was adopted. Here several scenarios are proposed: the basic scenario, scenario 1, describes the status of the year 2008. A second scenario maximizes the use of groundwater. Scenario 3 applies water saving for maximum increase of discharge to the downstream area, and scenario 4 looks at different climatic extremes. As groundwater lends it self readily to water saving irrigation, a present danger is over pumping of groundwater which leads to less efficient drainage, and recycling and accumulation of TDS. In an effort to allow high groundwater use scenario 5 analyses the use of irrigation channels for artificial groundwater recharge by surface water. All of the scenarios are implemented and compared through simulation, using an integrated 3D distributed flow and transport model of Yanqi Basin based on MikeSHE/Mike11 software. After the comparison of the different scenarios, an optimal combination of surface and groundwater resources use is suggested to reach an acceptable and sustainable compromise between the various water users i.e. agriculture, industry and the ecosystem.

Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, A.; Fogli, P. G.; Vichi, M.; Zeng, N.

2012-07-01

Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen hydrological cycle during 21st century by comparison with the last decades of 20th century. We analyze strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. Furthermore, by combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere we profitably obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and for the partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. Above approach is applied to investigate difference in strengthening of hydrological cycle in two scenario centennial simulations performed with an Earth System model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B, we considered a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K. Quite unexpectedly, mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen hydrological cycle more than SRES A1B till around 2070. Our analysis shows that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to the abated aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B. In contrast, last decades of 21st century (21C) show marked increase of global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to 20th century. Our results show that radiative cooling is weakly effective in A1B throughout all 21C, so that two distinct mechanisms characterize the diverse strengthening of hydrological cycle in mid and end 21C. It is only through a very large perturbation of surface fluxes that A1B achieves larger increase of global precipitation in the last decades of 21C. Our energy/water budget analysis shows that this behavior is ultimately due to a bifurcation in the Bowen ratios change between the two scenarios. This work warns that mitigation policies, by abating aerosols, may lead to unexpected stronger intensification of hydrological cycle and associated changes that may last for decades after that global warming is effectively mitigated. On the other hand, it is here suggested that predictable components of the radiative forcing by aerosols may have the potential to effectively contribute to the decadal-scale predictability of changes in the hydrological strength.

Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models.

PubMed

Houben, Rein M G J; Menzies, Nicolas A; Sumner, Tom; Huynh, Grace H; Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D; Lin, Hsien-Ho; Wu, Chieh-Yin; Mandal, Sandip; Pandey, Surabhi; Suen, Sze-Chuan; Bendavid, Eran; Azman, Andrew S; Dowdy, David W; Bacaër, Nicolas; Rhines, Allison S; Feldman, Marcus W; Handel, Andreas; Whalen, Christopher C; Chang, Stewart T; Wagner, Bradley G; Eckhoff, Philip A; Trauer, James M; Denholm, Justin T; McBryde, Emma S; Cohen, Ted; Salomon, Joshua A; Pretorius, Carel; Lalli, Marek; Eaton, Jeffrey W; Boccia, Delia; Hosseini, Mehran; Gomez, Gabriela B; Sahu, Suvanand; Daniels, Colleen; Ditiu, Lucica; Chin, Daniel P; Wang, Lixia; Chadha, Vineet K; Rade, Kiran; Dewan, Puneet; Hippner, Piotr; Charalambous, Salome; Grant, Alison D; Churchyard, Gavin; Pillay, Yogan; Mametja, L David; Kimerling, Michael E; Vassall, Anna; White, Richard G

2016-11-01

The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements. 11 independently developed mathematical models of tuberculosis transmission projected the epidemiological impact of currently available tuberculosis interventions for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in China, India, and South Africa. Models were calibrated with data on tuberculosis incidence and mortality in 2012. Representatives from national tuberculosis programmes and the advocacy community provided distinct country-specific intervention scenarios, which included screening for symptoms, active case finding, and preventive therapy. Aggressive scale-up of any single intervention scenario could not achieve the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets in any country. However, the models projected that, in the South Africa national tuberculosis programme scenario, a combination of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy for individuals on antiretroviral therapy, expanded facility-based screening for symptoms of tuberculosis at health centres, and improved tuberculosis care could achieve a 55% reduction in incidence (range 31-62%) and a 72% reduction in mortality (range 64-82%) compared with 2015 levels. For India, and particularly for China, full scale-up of all interventions in tuberculosis-programme performance fell short of the 2025 targets, despite preventing a cumulative 3·4 million cases. The advocacy scenarios illustrated the high impact of detecting and treating latent tuberculosis. Major reductions in tuberculosis burden seem possible with current interventions. However, additional interventions, adapted to country-specific tuberculosis epidemiology and health systems, are needed to reach the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets at country level. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Urban expansion simulation and the spatio-temporal changes of ecosystem services, a case study in Atlanta Metropolitan area, USA.

PubMed

Sun, Xiao; Crittenden, John C; Li, Feng; Lu, Zhongming; Dou, Xiaolin

2018-05-01

Urban expansion can lead to land use changes and, hence, threatens the ecosystems. Understanding the effects of urbanization on ecosystem services (ESs) can provide scientific guidance for land use planning and the protection of ESs. We established a framework to assess the spatial distributions of ESs based on land use changes in the Atlanta Metropolitan area (AMA) from 1985 to 2012. A new comprehensive ecosystem service (CES) index was developed to reflect the comprehensive level of ESs. Associated with the influential factors, we simulated the business as usual scenario in 2030. Four alternative scenarios, including more compact growth (MCG), riparian vegetation buffer (RVB), soil conservation (SC), and combined development (CD) scenarios were developed to explore the optimal land use strategies which can enhance the ESs. The results showed that forest and wetland had the greatest decreases, while low and high intensity built-up lands had the greatest increases. The values of CES and most of ESs decreased significantly due to the sprawling expansion of built-up land. The scenario analysis revealed that the CD scenario performs best in CES value, while it performs the worst in food supply. Compared with the RVB and SC scenarios, MCG scenario is a more optimal land use strategy to enhance the ESs without at the expense of food supply. To integrate multiple ESs into land use planning and decision making, corresponding land management policies and ecological engineering measures should be implemented to enhance: (1) the water yield and water purification in urban core counties, (2) the carbon storage, habitat quality, and recreational opportunity in counties around the core area, and (3) the soil conservation and food supply in surrounding suburban counties. The land use strategies and ecological engineering measures in this study can provide references for enhancing the ESs in the AMA and other metropolitan areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating science, policy and stakeholder perspectives for water resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbour, Emily; Allan, Andrew; Whitehead, Paul; Salehin, Mashfiqus; Lazzar, Attila; Lim, Michelle; Munsur Rahman, Md.

2015-04-01

Successful management of water resources requires an integrated approach considering the complex relationships between different biophysical processes, governance frameworks and socio-economic factors. The Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) Deltas project has developed a range of socio-economic scenarios using a participatory approach, and applied these across different biophysical models as well as an integrated environmental, socio-economic model of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta. This work demonstrates a novel approach through the consideration of multiple ecosystem services and related socio-economic factors in the development of scenarios; the application of these to multiple models at multiple scales; and the participatory approach to improve project outcomes and engage national level stakeholders and policy makers. Scenarios can assist in planning for an uncertain future through exploring plausible alternatives. To adequately assess the potential impacts of future changes and management strategies on water resources, the wider biophysical, socio-economic and governance context needs to be considered. A series of stakeholder workshops have been held in Bangladesh to identify issues of main concern relating to the GBM Delta; to iteratively develop scenario narratives for business as usual, less sustainable, and more sustainable development pathways; and to translate these qualitative scenarios into a quantitative form suitable for analysis. The combined impact of these scenarios and climate change on water quantity and quality within the GBM Basin are demonstrated. Results suggest that climate change is likely to impact on both peak and low flows to a greater extent than most socio-economic changes. However, the diversion of water from the Ganges and Brahmaputra has the potential to significantly impact on water availability in Bangladesh depending on the timing and quantity of diversions. Both climate change and socio-economic scenarios are likely to impact on water quality. This work provides the foundation for investigating the effects of different policy and management interventions in coastal Bangladesh, and exploring trade-offs between different water resource objectives, and other ecosystem, social or economic objectives.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

PubMed

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teshager, Awoke D.; Gassman, Philip W.; Schoof, Justin T.; Secchi, Silvia

2016-08-01

Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists that describes the combined impacts of agricultural land use change and climate change on future bioenergy crop yields and watershed hydrology. In this study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural land use change scenarios and three downscaled climate pathways (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) that were created from an ensemble of eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). These scenarios were implemented in a well-calibrated SWAT model for the intensively farmed and tiled Raccoon River watershed (RRW) located in western Iowa. The scenarios were executed for the historical baseline, early century, mid-century and late century periods. The results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-to-late century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid- and late 21st century.

A mathematical model for CTL effect on a latently infected cell inclusive HIV dynamics and treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarfulea, N. E.

2017-10-01

This paper investigates theoretically and numerically the effect of immune effectors, such as the cytotoxic lymphocyte (CTL), in modeling HIV pathogenesis (via a newly developed mathematical model); our results suggest the significant impact of the immune response on the control of the virus during primary infection. Qualitative aspects (including positivity, boundedness, stability, uncertainty, and sensitivity analysis) are addressed. Additionally, by introducing drug therapy, we analyze numerically the model to assess the effect of treatment consisting of a combination of several antiretroviral drugs. Our results show that the inclusion of the CTL compartment produces a higher rebound for an individual's healthy helper T-cell compartment than drug therapy alone. Furthermore, we quantitatively characterize successful drugs or drug combination scenarios.

Search for a high-mass Higgs boson decaying to a W boson pair in pp collisions at √s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aad, G.; Aad, G.; Abbott, B.

A search for a high-mass Higgs boson H is performed in the H→WW→ℓνℓν and H→WW→ℓνqq decay channels, using pp collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb -1, collected at √s = 8 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. No evidence of a high-mass Higgs boson is found. Limits on σ H×BR(H→WW) as a function of the Higgs boson mass mH are determined in three different scenarios: one in which the heavy Higgs boson has a narrow width compared to the experimental resolution, one a width increasing with the boson mass and modeled bymore » the complex-pole scheme following the same behavior as in the Standard Model, and one for intermediate widths. The upper range of the search is m H=1500 GeV for the narrow-width scenario and m H=1000 GeV for the other two scenarios. The lower edge of the search range is 200-300 GeV and depends on the analysis channel and search scenario. For each scenario, individual and combined limits from the two WW decay channels are presented. At mH=1500 GeV, the highest mass point tested, σ H∙BR(H→WW) for a narrow-width Higgs boson is constrained to be less than 22 fb and 6.6 fb at the 95% CL for the gluon fusion and vector-boson fusion production modes, respectively.« less

Simulation of the impact of managed aquifer recharge on the groundwater system in Hanoi, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glass, Jana; Via Rico, Daniela A.; Stefan, Catalin; Nga, Tran Thi Viet

2018-05-01

A transient numerical groundwater flow model using MODFLOW-NWT was set up and calibrated for Hanoi city, Vietnam, to understand the local groundwater flow system and to suggest solutions for sustainable water resource management. Urban development in Hanoi has caused a severe decline of groundwater levels. The present study evaluates the actual situation and investigates the suitability of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) to stop further depletion of groundwater resources. The results suggest that groundwater is being overexploited, as vast cones of depression exist in parts of the study area. Suitable locations to implement two MAR techniques—riverbank filtration and injection wells—were identified using multi-criteria decision analysis based on geographic information system (GIS). Three predictive scenarios were simulated. The relocation of pumping wells towards the Red River to induce riverbank filtration (first scenario) demonstrates that groundwater levels can be increased, especially in the depression cones. Groundwater levels can also be improved locally by the infiltration of surplus water into the upper aquifer (Holocene) via injection wells during the rainy season (second scenario), but this is not effective to raise the water table in the depression cones. Compared to the first scenario, the combination of riverbank filtration and injection wells (third scenario) shows a slightly raised overall water table. Groundwater flow modeling suggests that local overexploitation can be stopped by a smart relocation of wells from the main depression cones and the expansion of riverbank filtration. This could also avoid further land subsidence while the city's water demand is met.

Developing Scenarios: Linking Environmental Scanning and Strategic Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whiteley, Meredith A.; And Others

1990-01-01

The multiple scenario analysis technique for organizational planning used by multinational corporations is adaptable for colleges and universities. Arizona State University launched a futures-based planning project using the Delphi technique and cross-impact analysis to produce three alternative scenarios (stable, turbulent, and chaotic) to expand…

River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

2016-03-01

Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

Social transformation in transdisciplinary natural hazard management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attems, Marie-Sophie; Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas

2017-04-01

Due to annual increases of natural hazard losses, there is a discussion among authorities and communities in Europe on innovative solutions to increase resilience, and consequently, business-as-usual in risk management practices is often questioned. Therefore, the current situation of risk management requests a societal transformation to response adequately and effectively to the new global dynamics. An emerging concept is the implementation of multiple-use mitigation systems against hazards such as floods, avalanches and land-slides. However, one key aspect refers to the involvement of knowledge outside academic research. Therefore, transdisciplinary knowledge can be used to discuss vital factors which are needed to upscale the implementation of multiple-use mitigation measures. The method used in this contribution is an explorative scenario analysis applied in Austria and processes the knowledge gained in transdisciplinary workshops. The scenario analysis combines qualitative data and the quantitative relations in order to generate a set of plausible future outcomes. The goal is to establish a small amount of consistent scenarios, which are efficient and thereby representative as well as significantly different from each other. The results of the discussions among relevant stakeholders within the workshops and a subsequent quantitative analysis, showed that vital variables influencing the multiple use of mitigation measures are the (1) current legislation, (2) risk acceptance among authorities and the public, (3) land-use pressure, (4) the demand for innovative solutions, (5) the available technical standards and possibilities and (6) finally the policy entrepreneurship. Four different scenarios were the final result of the analysis. Concluding the results, in order to make multiple-use alleviations systems possible contemporary settings concerning risk management strategies will have to change in the future. Legislation and thereby current barriers have to be altered in order to create a possibility for innovative solutions. If the state of the art in technical perspectives allows constructions with limited additional risk, multiple-use structures are an option in risk management. The present and future land-use pressure also intensifies the economic interest in finding and accepting such measures.

Impaired ecosystem process despite little effects on populations: modeling combined effects of warming and toxicants.

PubMed

Galic, Nika; Grimm, Volker; Forbes, Valery E

2017-08-01

Freshwater ecosystems are exposed to many stressors, including toxic chemicals and global warming, which can impair, separately or in combination, important processes in organisms and hence higher levels of organization. Investigating combined effects of warming and toxicants has been a topic of little research, but neglecting their combined effects may seriously misguide management efforts. To explore how toxic chemicals and warming, alone and in combination, propagate across levels of biological organization, including a key ecosystem process, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) of a freshwater amphipod detritivore, Gammarus pseudolimnaeus, feeding on leaf litter. In this IBM, life history emerges from the individuals' energy budgets. We quantified, in different warming scenarios (+1-+4 °C), the effects of hypothetical toxicants on suborganismal processes, including feeding, somatic and maturity maintenance, growth, and reproduction. Warming reduced mean adult body sizes and population abundance and biomass, but only in the warmest scenarios. Leaf litter processing, a key contributor to ecosystem functioning and service delivery in streams, was consistently enhanced by warming, through strengthened interaction between the detritivorous consumer and its resource. Toxicant effects on feeding and maintenance resulted in initially small adverse effects on consumers, but ultimately led to population extinction and loss of ecosystem process. Warming in combination with toxicants had little effect at the individual and population levels, but ecosystem process was impaired in the warmer scenarios. Our results suggest that exposure to the same amount of toxicants can disproportionately compromise ecosystem processing depending on global warming scenarios; for example, reducing organismal feeding rates by 50% will reduce resource processing by 50% in current temperature conditions, but by up to 200% with warming of 4 °C. Our study has implications for assessing and monitoring impacts of chemicals on ecosystems facing global warming. We advise complementing existing monitoring approaches with directly quantifying ecosystem processes and services. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How much do electric drive vehicles matter to future U.S. emissions?

PubMed

Babaee, Samaneh; Nagpure, Ajay S; DeCarolis, Joseph F

2014-01-01

Hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles--known collectively as electric drive vehicles (EDVs)--may represent a clean and affordable option to meet growing U.S. light duty vehicle (LDV) demand. The goal of this study is 2-fold: identify the conditions under which EDVs achieve high LDV market penetration in the U.S. and quantify the associated change in CO2, SO2, and NOX emissions through midcentury. We employ the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES), a bottom-up energy system model, along with a U.S. data set developed for this analysis. To characterize EDV deployment through 2050, varying assumptions related to crude oil and natural gas prices, a CO2 policy, a federal renewable portfolio standard, and vehicle battery cost were combined to form 108 different scenarios. Across these scenarios, oil prices and battery cost have the biggest effect on EDV deployment. The model results do not demonstrate a clear and consistent trend toward lower system-wide emissions as EDV deployment increases. In addition to the trade-off between lower tailpipe and higher electric sector emissions associated with plug-in vehicles, the scenarios produce system-wide emissions effects that often mask the effect of EDV deployment.

Tail mean and related robust solution concepts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogryczak, Włodzimierz

2014-01-01

Robust optimisation might be viewed as a multicriteria optimisation problem where objectives correspond to the scenarios although their probabilities are unknown or imprecise. The simplest robust solution concept represents a conservative approach focused on the worst-case scenario results optimisation. A softer concept allows one to optimise the tail mean thus combining performances under multiple worst scenarios. We show that while considering robust models allowing the probabilities to vary only within given intervals, the tail mean represents the robust solution for only upper bounded probabilities. For any arbitrary intervals of probabilities the corresponding robust solution may be expressed by the optimisation of appropriately combined mean and tail mean criteria thus remaining easily implementable with auxiliary linear inequalities. Moreover, we use the tail mean concept to develope linear programming implementable robust solution concepts related to risk averse optimisation criteria.

The use of scenario analysis in local public health departments: alternative futures for strategic planning.

PubMed Central

Venable, J M; Ma, Q L; Ginter, P M; Duncan, W J

1993-01-01

Scenario analysis is a strategic planning technique used to describe and evaluate an organization's external environment. A methodology for conducting scenario analysis using the Jefferson County Department of Health and the national, State, and county issues confronting it is outlined. Key health care and organizational issues were identified using published sources, focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interviews. The most important of these issues were selected by asking health department managers to evaluate the issues according to their probability of occurrence and likely impact on the health department. The high-probability, high-impact issues formed the basis for developing scenario logics that constitute the story line holding the scenario together. The results were a set of plausible scenarios that aided in strategic planning, encouraged strategic thinking among managers, eliminated or reduced surprise about environmental changes, and improved managerial discussion and communication. PMID:8265754

Concurrent elevation of CO2, O3 and temperature severely affects oil quality and quantity in rapeseed

PubMed Central

Namazkar, Shahla; Stockmarr, Anders; Frenck, Georg; Egsgaard, Helge; Terkelsen, Thilde; Mikkelsen, Teis; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Jørgensen, Rikke Bagger

2016-01-01

Plant oil is an essential dietary and bio-energy resource. Despite this, the effects of climate change on plant oil quality remain to be elucidated. The present study is the first to show changes in oil quality and quantity of four rapeseed cultivars in climate scenarios with elevated [CO2], [O3] and temperature (T) combined and as single factors. The combination of environmental factors resembled IPCC’s ‘business as usual’ emission scenario predicted for late this century. Generally, the climate scenarios reduced the average amounts of the six fatty acids (FAs) analysed, though in some treatments single FAs remained unchanged or even increased. Most reduced was the FA essential for human nutrition, C18:3-ω3, which decreased by 39% and 45% in the combined scenarios with elevated [CO2]+T+[O3] and [CO2]+T, respectively. Average oil content decreased 3–17%. When [CO2] and T were elevated concurrently, the seed biomass was reduced by half, doubling the losses in FAs and oil content. This corresponded to a 58% reduction in the oil yield per hectare, and C18:3-ω3 decreased by 77%. Furthermore, the polyunsaturated FAs were significantly decreased. The results indicate undesirable consequences for production and health benefits of rapeseed oil with future climate change. The results also showed strong interactive effects of CO2, T and O3 on oil quality, demonstrating why prediction of climate effects requires experiments with combined factors and should not be based on extrapolation from single factor experiments. PMID:27222513

Scenario Analysis of Soil and Water Conservation in Xiejia Watershed Based on Improved CSLE Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jieying; Yu, Ming; Wu, Yong; Huang, Yao; Nie, Yawen

2018-01-01

According to the existing research results and related data, use the scenario analysis method, to evaluate the effects of different soil and water conservation measures on soil erosion in a small watershed. Based on the analysis of soil erosion scenarios and model simulation budgets in the study area, it is found that all scenarios simulated soil erosion rates are lower than the present situation of soil erosion in 2013. Soil and water conservation measures are more effective in reducing soil erosion than soil and water conservation biological measures and soil and water conservation tillage measures.

Dissecting the polysaccharide-rich grape cell wall matrix using recombinant pectinases during winemaking.

PubMed

Gao, Yu; Fangel, Jonatan U; Willats, William G T; Vivier, Melané A; Moore, John P

2016-11-05

The effectiveness of enzyme-mediated-maceration in red winemaking relies on the use of an optimum combination of specific enzymes. A lack of information on the relevant enzyme activities and the corresponding polysaccharide-rich berry cell wall structure is a major limitation. This study used different combinations of purified recombinant pectinases with cell wall profiling tools to follow the deconstruction process during winemaking. Multivariate data analysis of the glycan microarray (CoMPP) and gas chromatography (GC) results revealed that pectin lyase performed almost as effectively in de-pectination as certain commercial enzyme mixtures. Surprisingly the combination of endo-polygalacturonase and pectin-methyl-esterase only unraveled the cell walls without de-pectination. Datasets from the various combinations used confirmed pectin-rich and xyloglucan-rich layers within the grape pomace. These data support a proposed grape cell wall model which can serve as a foundation to evaluate testable hypotheses in future studies aimed at developing tailor-made enzymes for winemaking scenarios. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Complexity associated with the optimisation of capability options in military operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pincombe, A.; Bender, A.; Allen, G.

2005-12-01

In the context of a military operation, even if the intended actions, the geographic location, and the capabilities of the opposition are known, there are still some critical uncertainties that could have a major impact on the effectiveness of a given set of capabilities. These uncertainties include unpredictable events and the response alternatives that are available to the command and control elements of the capability set. They greatly complicate any a priori mathematical description. In a forecasting approach, the most likely future might be chosen and a solution sought that is optimal for that case. With scenario analysis, futures are proposed on the basis of critical uncertainties and the option that is most robust is chosen. We use scenario analysis but our approach is different in that we focus on the complexity and use the coupling between scenarios and options to create information on ideal options. The approach makes use of both soft and hard operations research methods, with subject matter expertise being used to define plausible responses to scenarios. In each scenario, uncertainty affects only a subset of the system-inherent variables and the variables that describe system-environment interactions. It is this scenario-specific reduction of variables that makes the problem mathematically tractable. The process we define is significantly different to existing scenario analysis processes, so we have named it adversarial scenario analysis. It can be used in conjunction with other methods, including recent improvements to the scenario analysis process. To illustrate the approach, we undertake a tactical level scenario analysis for a logistics problem that is defined by a network, expected throughputs to end users, the transport capacity available, the infrastructure at the nodes and the capacities of roads, stocks etc. The throughput capacity, e.g. the effectiveness, of the system relies on all of these variables and on the couplings between them. The system is initially in equilibrium for a given level of demand. However, different, and simpler, solutions emerge as the balance of couplings and the importance of variables change. The scenarios describe such changes in conditions. For each scenario it was possible to define measures that describe the differences between options. As with agent-based distillations, the solution is essentially qualitative and exploratory, bringing awareness of possible future difficulties and of the capabilities that are necessary if we are to deal successfully with those difficulties.

Temperature humidity index scenarios in the Mediterranean basin.

PubMed

Segnalini, M; Bernabucci, U; Vitali, A; Nardone, A; Lacetera, N

2013-05-01

The study was undertaken to describe the temperature humidity index (THI) dynamics over the Mediterranean basin for the period 1971-2050. The THI combines temperature and humidity into a single value, and has been widely used to predict the effects of environmental warmth in farm animals. The analysis was based on daily outputs of the temperature and relative humidity from the Max Planck Institute data using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Emission Scenario A1B. Data revealed a gradual increase of both annual and seasonal THI during the period under investigation and a strong heterogeneity of the Mediterranean area. In particular, the analysis indicated that Spain, southern France and Italy should be expected to undergo the highest THI increase, which in the last decade under study (2041-2050) will range between 3 and 4 units. However, only during summer months the area presents characteristics indicating risk of thermal (heat) stress for farm animals. In this regard, scenario maps relative to the summer season suggested an enlargement of the areas in the basin where summer THI values will likely cause thermal discomfort in farm animals. In conclusion, the study indicated that the Mediterranean basin is likely to undergo THI changes, which may aggravate the consequences of hot weather on animal welfare, performances, health and survival and may help farmers, nutritionists, veterinarians, and policy-makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to limit consequences of climate change for the livestock sector in the Mediterranean countries.

Sedation provider practice variation: a survey analysis of pediatric emergency subspecialists and fellows.

PubMed

Shavit, Itai; Leder, Marc; Cohen, Daniel M

2010-10-01

Pediatric emergency physicians use various techniques and medications when performing procedural sedation and analgesia. The goals of our study were to assess US pediatric emergency medicine subspecialists and fellows (PEMSSFs) for individual practice variation and to evaluate (1) the use of supplemental oxygen and capnography monitoring and (2) adverse sedation events (ADSEs). A Web-based tool was used to survey and analyze data collected from a selected group of PEMSSFs, regarding their responses to 5 common sedation case scenarios, use of supplemental oxygen and capnography monitoring, and ADSEs. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between medication strategy and various levels of professional experience. Two hundred one surveys were received. One hundred ninety-five of these were eligible for the study: 140 from specialists and 55 from fellows. Respondents used multiple combinations of pharmaceutical agents to the scenarios presented. For some scenarios, statistical association was found between medication selection strategy and longer professional experience. Sixty percent of respondents do not routinely provide oxygen supplementation. Despite current guidelines supporting the routine use of capnography monitoring, 45% of respondents never use it. Adverse sedation event was reported in 17 cases; all patients were discharged with no further complications. A statistical association was found between years of practitioner experience and the likelihood of reporting an ADSE (P < 0.018). This group of PEMSSFs reported a wide spectrum of medication sedation strategies, dichotomous approaches to the use of oxygen supplementation and capnography monitoring, and a low rate of ADSEs.

Temperature humidity index scenarios in the Mediterranean basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segnalini, M.; Bernabucci, U.; Vitali, A.; Nardone, A.; Lacetera, N.

2013-05-01

The study was undertaken to describe the temperature humidity index (THI) dynamics over the Mediterranean basin for the period 1971-2050. The THI combines temperature and humidity into a single value, and has been widely used to predict the effects of environmental warmth in farm animals. The analysis was based on daily outputs of the temperature and relative humidity from the Max Planck Institute data using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Emission Scenario A1B. Data revealed a gradual increase of both annual and seasonal THI during the period under investigation and a strong heterogeneity of the Mediterranean area. In particular, the analysis indicated that Spain, southern France and Italy should be expected to undergo the highest THI increase, which in the last decade under study (2041-2050) will range between 3 and 4 units. However, only during summer months the area presents characteristics indicating risk of thermal (heat) stress for farm animals. In this regard, scenario maps relative to the summer season suggested an enlargement of the areas in the basin where summer THI values will likely cause thermal discomfort in farm animals. In conclusion, the study indicated that the Mediterranean basin is likely to undergo THI changes, which may aggravate the consequences of hot weather on animal welfare, performances, health and survival and may help farmers, nutritionists, veterinarians, and policy-makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to limit consequences of climate change for the livestock sector in the Mediterranean countries.

Scenario analysis of carbon emissions' anti-driving effect on Qingdao's energy structure adjustment with an optimization model, Part II: Energy system planning and management.

PubMed

Wu, C B; Huang, G H; Liu, Z P; Zhen, J L; Yin, J G

2017-03-01

In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming (IMSMP) method was developed for supporting regional-scale energy system planning (EPS) associated with multiple uncertainties presented as discrete intervals, probability distributions and their combinations. An IMSMP-based energy system planning (IMSMP-ESP) model was formulated for Qingdao to demonstrate its applicability. Solutions which can provide optimal patterns of energy resources generation, conversion, transmission, allocation and facility capacity expansion schemes have been obtained. The results can help local decision makers generate cost-effective energy system management schemes and gain a comprehensive tradeoff between economic objectives and environmental requirements. Moreover, taking the CO 2 emissions scenarios mentioned in Part I into consideration, the anti-driving effect of carbon emissions on energy structure adjustment was studied based on the developed model and scenario analysis. Several suggestions can be concluded from the results: (a) to ensure the smooth realization of low-carbon and sustainable development, appropriate price control and fiscal subsidy on high-cost energy resources should be considered by the decision-makers; (b) compared with coal, natural gas utilization should be strongly encouraged in order to insure that Qingdao could reach the carbon discharges peak value in 2020; (c) to guarantee Qingdao's power supply security in the future, the construction of new power plants should be emphasised instead of enhancing the transmission capacity of grid infrastructure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nuclear energy in Europe: uranium flow modeling and fuel cycle scenario trade-offs from a sustainability perspective.

PubMed

Tendall, Danielle M; Binder, Claudia R

2011-03-15

The European nuclear fuel cycle (covering the EU-27, Switzerland and Ukraine) was modeled using material flow analysis (MFA).The analysis was based on publicly available data from nuclear energy agencies and industries, national trade offices, and nongovernmental organizations. Military uranium was not considered due to lack of accessible data. Nuclear fuel cycle scenarios varying spent fuel reprocessing, depleted uranium re-enrichment, enrichment assays, and use of fast neutron reactors, were established. They were then assessed according to environmental, economic and social criteria such as resource depletion, waste production, chemical and radiation emissions, costs, and proliferation risks. The most preferable scenario in the short term is a combination of reduced tails assay and enrichment grade, allowing a 17.9% reduction of uranium demand without significantly increasing environmental, economic, or social risks. In the long term, fast reactors could theoretically achieve a 99.4% decrease in uranium demand and nuclear waste production. However, this involves important costs and proliferation risks. Increasing material efficiency is not systematically correlated with the reduction of other risks. This suggests that an overall optimization of the nuclear fuel cycle is difficult to obtain. Therefore, criteria must be weighted according to stakeholder interests in order to determine the most sustainable solution. This paper models the flows of uranium and associated materials in Europe, and provides a decision support tool for identifying the trade-offs of the alternative nuclear fuel cycles considered.

Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartram, Bart W.; Vaughan, Frank R.; Englehart, Richard W.

An account is given of the method used to quantify the risks accruing to the use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled by Pu-238 dioxide aboard the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission. After using a Monte Carlo technique to develop probability distributions for the radiological consequences of a range of accident scenarios throughout the mission, factors affecting those consequences are identified in conjunction with their probability distributions. The functional relationship among all the factors is then established, and probability distributions for all factor effects are combined by means of a Monte Carlo technique.

Adaptive Sampling using Support Vector Machines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

D. Mandelli; C. Smith

2012-11-01

Reliability/safety analysis of stochastic dynamic systems (e.g., nuclear power plants, airplanes, chemical plants) is currently performed through a combination of Event-Tress and Fault-Trees. However, these conventional methods suffer from certain drawbacks: • Timing of events is not explicitly modeled • Ordering of events is preset by the analyst • The modeling of complex accident scenarios is driven by expert-judgment For these reasons, there is currently an increasing interest into the development of dynamic PRA methodologies since they can be used to address the deficiencies of conventional methods listed above.

Robust Control Analysis of Hydraulic Turbine Speed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jekan, P.; Subramani, C.

2018-04-01

An effective control strategy for the hydro-turbine governor in time scenario is adjective for this paper. Considering the complex dynamic characteristic and the uncertainty of the hydro-turbine governor model and taking the static and dynamic performance of the governing system as the ultimate goal, the designed logic combined the classical PID control theory with artificial intelligence used to obtain the desired output. The used controller will be a variable control techniques, therefore, its parameters can be adaptively adjusted according to the information about the control error signal.

2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley; Mai, Trieu; Logan, Jeffrey

The Standard Scenarios and this associated report, which are now in their second year, present an examination of some of the key aspects of the change occurring, or anticipated to occur, in the power sector over the next several decades. The Standard Scenarios consist of 18 power sector scenarios which have been projected using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) long-term capacity expansion model and the dGen rooftop PV diffusion model. The purpose of the Standard Scenarios and this associated report is to provide context, discussion, and data to inform stakeholder decision-making regarding the futuremore » direction of U.S. power sector. As an extension to this report, the Standard Scenario outputs are presented in a downloadable format online using the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer at http://en.openei.org/apps/reeds/. This report reflects high-level conclusions and analysis, whereas the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer includes the scenario results that can be used for more in-depth analysis.« less

Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects Electric Power Marketing. Draft environmental impact statement: Volume 4, Appendixes B-D

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1994-02-01

The Salt Lake City Area Office of the Western Area Power Administration (Western) markets electricity produced at hydroelectric facilities operated by the Bureau of Reclamation. The facilities are known collectively as the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP) and include dams equipped for power generation on the Green, Gunnison, Rio Grande, and Colorado rivers and on Deer and Plateau creeks in the states of Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. Of these facilities, only the Glen Canyon Unit, the Flaming Gorge Unit, and the Aspinall Unit (which includes Blue Mesa, Morrow Point, and Crystal dams;) are influenced bymore » Western power scheduling and transmission decisions. The EIS alternatives, called commitment-level alternatives, reflect combinations of capacity and energy that would feasibly and reasonably fulfill Westerns firm power marketing responsibilities, needs, and statutory obligations. The viability of these alternatives relates directly to the combination of generation capability of the SLCA/IP with energy purchases and interchange. The economic and natural resource assessments in this environmental impact statement (EIS) include an analysis of commitment-level alternatives. Impacts of the no-action alternative are also assessed. Supply options, which include combinations of electrical power purchases and hydropower operational scenarios reflecting different operations of the dams, are also assessed. The EIS evaluates the impacts of these scenarios relative to socioeconomics, air resources, water resources, ecological resources, cultural resources, land use, recreation, and visual resources.« less

Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects Electric Power Marketing. Draft environmental impact statement: Volume 2, Sections 1-16

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The Salt Lake City Area Office of the Western Area Power Administration (Western) markets electricity produced at hydroelectric facilities operated by the Bureau of Reclamation. The facilities are known collectively as the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP) and include dams equipped for power generation on the Green, Gunnison, Rio Grande, and Colorado rivers and on Deer and Plateau creeks in the states of Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. Of these facilities, only the Glen Canyon Unit, the Flaming Gorge Unit, and the Aspinall Unit (which includes Blue Mesa, Morrow Point, and Crystal dams;) are influenced bymore » Western power scheduling and transmission decisions. The EIS alternatives, called commitment-level alternatives, reflect combinations of capacity and energy that would feasibly and reasonably fulfill Westerns firm power marketing responsibilities, needs, and statutory obligations. The viability of these alternatives relates directly to the combination of generation capability of the SLCA/IP with energy purchases and interchange. The economic and natural resource assessments in this environmental impact statement (EIS) include an analysis of commitment-level alternatives. Impacts of the no-action alternative are also assessed. Supply options, which include combinations of electrical power purchases and hydropower operational scenarios reflecting different operations of the dams, are also assessed. The EIS evaluates the impacts of these scenarios relative to socioeconomics, air resources, water resources, ecological resources, cultural resources, land use, recreation, and visual resources.« less

Integrated modelling of steady-state scenarios and heating and current drive mixes for ITER

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murakami, Masanori; Park, Jin Myung; Giruzzi, G.

2011-01-01

Recent progress on ITER steady-state (SS) scenario modelling by the ITPA-IOS group is reviewed. Code-to-code benchmarks as the IOS group's common activities for the two SS scenarios (weak shear scenario and internal transport barrier scenario) are discussed in terms of transport, kinetic profiles, and heating and current drive (CD) sources using various transport codes. Weak magnetic shear scenarios integrate the plasma core and edge by combining a theory-based transport model (GLF23) with scaled experimental boundary profiles. The edge profiles (at normalized radius rho = 0.8-1.0) are adopted from an edge-localized mode-averaged analysis of a DIII-D ITER demonstration discharge. A fullymore » noninductive SS scenario is achieved with fusion gain Q = 4.3, noninductive fraction f(NI) = 100%, bootstrap current fraction f(BS) = 63% and normalized beta beta(N) = 2.7 at plasma current I(p) = 8MA and toroidal field B(T) = 5.3 T using ITER day-1 heating and CD capability. Substantial uncertainties come from outside the radius of setting the boundary conditions (rho = 0.8). The present simulation assumed that beta(N)(rho) at the top of the pedestal (rho = 0.91) is about 25% above the peeling-ballooning threshold. ITER will have a challenge to achieve the boundary, considering different operating conditions (T(e)/T(i) approximate to 1 and density peaking). Overall, the experimentally scaled edge is an optimistic side of the prediction. A number of SS scenarios with different heating and CD mixes in a wide range of conditions were explored by exploiting the weak-shear steady-state solution procedure with the GLF23 transport model and the scaled experimental edge. The results are also presented in the operation space for DT neutron power versus stationary burn pulse duration with assumed poloidal flux availability at the beginning of stationary burn, indicating that the long pulse operation goal (3000s) at I(p) = 9 MA is possible. Source calculations in these simulations have been revised for electron cyclotron current drive including parallel momentum conservation effects and for neutral beam current drive with finite orbit and magnetic pitch effects.« less

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China.

PubMed

Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

2015-11-09

Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution-severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

PubMed Central

Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

2015-01-01

Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems. PMID:26569270

Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

2016-04-01

A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people (46% of Asian population) are going to live in countries classified as high hydrological complexity. In particular, in Afghanistan, Azerbaijan and Pakistan, then home to 370 million people, hydrological complexity will be high while adaptation capacity is still low. On the other hand, a part of people however who live in countries with higher expected adaptive capacities may have better futures depending on policies and investment. Besides country scale, grid scale analyses clearly highlighted that a large part of population living under strong water stress in highly populated areas of Asia, such as east and coastal areas in China and large parts of India. Our preliminary results show that a significant impact of socioeconomic scenarios on each of the indexes which is comparable to that of climate scenarios. For instance, the least timing, trend and spatial distribution of water resource per capita are highly affected by projected population. This study shows that features of time series change in each indexes are also informative particularly for decision makers because they support in optimal timing of investment for countermeasures. In this presentation, we are showing our analysis framework and results of each integrated indexes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xing, Y; Macq, B; Bondar, L

Purpose: To quantify the accuracy in predicting the Bragg peak position using simulated in-room measurements of prompt gamma (PG) emissions for realistic treatment error scenarios that combine several sources of errors. Methods: Prompt gamma measurements by a knife-edge slit camera were simulated using an experimentally validated analytical simulation tool. Simulations were performed, for 143 treatment error scenarios, on an anthropomorphic phantom and a pencil beam scanning plan for nasal cavity. Three types of errors were considered: translation along each axis, rotation around each axis, and CT-calibration errors with magnitude ranging respectively, between −3 and 3 mm, −5 and 5 degrees,more » and between −5 and +5%. We investigated the correlation between the Bragg peak (BP) shift and the horizontal shift of PG profiles. The shifts were calculated between the planned (reference) position and the position by the error scenario. The prediction error for one spot was calculated as the absolute difference between the PG profile shift and the BP shift. Results: The PG shift was significantly and strongly correlated with the BP shift for 92% of the cases (p<0.0001, Pearson correlation coefficient R>0.8). Moderate but significant correlations were obtained for all cases that considered only CT-calibration errors and for 1 case that combined translation and CT-errors (p<0.0001, R ranged between 0.61 and 0.8). The average prediction errors for the simulated scenarios ranged between 0.08±0.07 and 1.67±1.3 mm (grand mean 0.66±0.76 mm). The prediction error was moderately correlated with the value of the BP shift (p=0, R=0.64). For the simulated scenarios the average BP shift ranged between −8±6.5 mm and 3±1.1 mm. Scenarios that considered combinations of the largest treatment errors were associated with large BP shifts. Conclusion: Simulations of in-room measurements demonstrate that prompt gamma profiles provide reliable estimation of the Bragg peak position for complex error scenarios. Yafei Xing and Luiza Bondar are funded by BEWARE grants from the Walloon Region. The work presents simulations results for a prompt gamma camera prototype developed by IBA.« less

Controlled ecological life support system: Transportation analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gustan, E.; Vinopal, T.

1982-01-01

This report discusses a study utilizing a systems analysis approach to determine which NASA missions would benefit from controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) technology. The study focuses on manned missions selected from NASA planning forecasts covering the next half century. Comparison of various life support scenarios for the selected missions and characteristics of projected transportation systems provided data for cost evaluations. This approach identified missions that derived benefits from a CELSS, showed the magnitude of the potential cost savings, and indicated which system or combination of systems would apply. This report outlines the analytical approach used in the evaluation, describes the missions and systems considered, and sets forth the benefits derived from CELSS when applicable.

Response of a multi-stressed Mediterranean river to future climate and socio-economic scenarios.

PubMed

Stefanidis, Konstantinos; Panagopoulos, Yiannis; Mimikou, Maria

2018-06-15

Streams and rivers are among the most threatened ecosystems in Europe due to the combined effects of multiple pressures related to anthropogenic activities. Particularly in the Mediterranean region, changes in hydromorphology along with increased nutrient loadings are known to affect the ecological functions and ecosystem services of streams and rivers with the anticipated climate change being likely to further impair their functionality and structure. In this study, we investigated the combined effects of agricultural driven stressors on the ecology and delivered services of the Pinios river basin in Greece under three future world scenarios developed within the EU funded MARS project. Scenarios are based on combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and refer to early century (2030) and mid-century (2060) representing future climate worlds with particular socioeconomic characteristics. To assess the responses of ecological and ecosystem service indicators to the scenarios we first simulated hydrology and water quality in Pinios with a process-based model. Simulated abiotic stressor parameters (predictors) were linked to two biotic indicators, the macroinvertebrate indicators ASPT and EPT, with empirical modelling based on boosted regression trees and general linear models. Our results showed that the techno world scenario driven by fast economic growth and intensive exploitation of energy resources had the largest impact on both the abiotic status (nutrient loads and concentrations in water) and the biotic indicators. In contrast, the predicted changes under the other two future worlds, consensus and fragmented, were more diverse and were mostly dictated by the projected climate. This work showed that the future scenarios, especially the mid-century ones, had significant impact on both abiotic status and biotic responses underpinning the need for implementing catchment management practices able to mitigate the ecological threat on waters in the long-term. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Community Solar Scenario Tool | Integrated Energy Solutions | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Community Solar Scenario Tool Community Solar Scenario Tool The Community Solar Scenario Tool (CSST ) provides a "first cut" analysis of different community or shared solar program options. NREL sponsoring utility. Community Solar Scenario Tool -Beta Version Available as a Microsoft Excel file, which

On the dynamical mechanisms of influence of synaptic currents on the neuron model with response differentiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakharov, D. G.; Kuznetsov, A. S.

2015-08-01

The combined effect of synaptic NMDA, AMPA, and GABA currents on the neuron model with response differentiation has been considered. It has been shown that the GABA and NMDA currents can compensate the effects of each other, whereas the AMPA current not only leads to the suppression of oscillations but also significantly amplifies the high-frequency activity of the neuron induced by the NMDA current. Two bifurcation scenarios underlying these effects have been revealed. It has been predicted which scenario takes place under the combined influence of all three currents.

Minority heating scenarios in ^4He(H) and ^3He(H) SST-1 plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chattopadhyay, Asim Kumar

2018-01-01

A numerical analysis of ion cyclotron resonance heating scenarios in two species of low ion temperature plasma has been done to elucidate the physics and possibility to achieve H-mode in tokamak plasma. The analysis is done in the steady-state superconducting tokamak, SST-1, using phase-I plasma parameters which is basically L-mode plasma parameters having low ion temperature and magnetic field with the help of the ion cyclotron heating code TORIC combined with `steady state Fokker-Planck quasilinear' (SSFPQL) solver. As a minority species hydrogen has been used in ^3He and ^4He plasmas to make two species ^3He(H) and ^4He(H) plasmas to study the ion cyclotron wave absorption scenarios. The minority heating is predominant in ^3He(H) and ^4He(H) plasmas as minority resonance layers are not shielded by ion-ion resonance and cut-off layers in both cases, and it is better in ^4He(H) plasma due to the smooth penetration of wave through plasma-vacuum surface. In minority concentration up to 15%, it has been observed that minority ion heating is the principal heating mechanism compared to electron heating and heating due to mode conversion phenomena. Numerical analysis with the help of SSFPQL solver shows that the tail of the distribution function of the minority ion is more energetic than that of the majority ion and therefore, more anisotropic. Due to good coupling of the wave and predominance of the minority heating regime, producing energetic ions in the tail region of the distribution function, the ^4He(H) and ^3He(H) plasmas could be studied in-depth to achieve H-mode in two species of low-temperature plasma.

An index-based robust decision making framework for watershed management in a changing climate.

PubMed

Kim, Yeonjoo; Chung, Eun-Sung

2014-03-01

This study developed an index-based robust decision making framework for watershed management dealing with water quantity and quality issues in a changing climate. It consists of two parts of management alternative development and analysis. The first part for alternative development consists of six steps: 1) to understand the watershed components and process using HSPF model, 2) to identify the spatial vulnerability ranking using two indices: potential streamflow depletion (PSD) and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD), 3) to quantify the residents' preferences on water management demands and calculate the watershed evaluation index which is the weighted combinations of PSD and PWQD, 4) to set the quantitative targets for water quantity and quality, 5) to develop a list of feasible alternatives and 6) to eliminate the unacceptable alternatives. The second part for alternative analysis has three steps: 7) to analyze all selected alternatives with a hydrologic simulation model considering various climate change scenarios, 8) to quantify the alternative evaluation index including social and hydrologic criteria with utilizing multi-criteria decision analysis methods and 9) to prioritize all options based on a minimax regret strategy for robust decision. This framework considers the uncertainty inherent in climate models and climate change scenarios with utilizing the minimax regret strategy, a decision making strategy under deep uncertainty and thus this procedure derives the robust prioritization based on the multiple utilities of alternatives from various scenarios. In this study, the proposed procedure was applied to the Korean urban watershed, which has suffered from streamflow depletion and water quality deterioration. Our application shows that the framework provides a useful watershed management tool for incorporating quantitative and qualitative information into the evaluation of various policies with regard to water resource planning and management. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness comparison of lamivudine plus adefovir combination treatment and nucleos(t)ide analog monotherapies in Chinese chronic hepatitis B patients.

PubMed

Zhang, Chi; Ke, Weixia; Liu, Li; Gao, Yanhui; Yao, Zhenjiang; Ye, Xiaohua; Zhou, Shudong; Yang, Yi

2016-01-01

Lamivudine (LAM) plus adefovir (ADV) combination therapy is clinically efficacious for treating chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients in China, but no pharmacoeconomic evaluations of this strategy are available. The aim of this study was to examine the cost-effectiveness of LAM plus ADV combination treatment compared with five other nucleos(t)ide analog monotherapies (LAM, ADV, telbivudine [TBV], entecavir [ETV], and tenofovir [TDF]). To simulate the lifetime (40-year time span) costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for different therapy options, a Markov model that included five initial monotherapies and LAM plus ADV combination as an initial treatment was developed. Two kinds of rescue combination strategies (base-case: LAM + ADV then ETV + ADV; alternative: direct use of ETV + ADV) were considered separately for treating patients refractory to initial therapy. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to explore model uncertainties. In base-case analysis, ETV had the lowest lifetime cost and served as the reference therapy. Compared to the reference, LAM, ADV, and TBV had higher costs and lower efficacy, and were completely dominated by ETV. LAM plus ADV combination therapy or TDF was more efficacious than ETV, but also more expensive. Although the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of combination therapy or TDF were both higher than the willingness-to-pay threshold of $20,466/QALY gained for the reference treatment, in an alternative scenario analysis LAM plus ADV combination therapy would be the preferable treatment option. ETV and LAM plus ADV combination therapy are both cost-effective strategies for treating Chinese CHB patients.

Adaption strategies to the effect of climate change on a coastal area in Northwest Germany with different land management scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graeff, Thomas; Krause, Stefan; Maier, Martin; Oswald, Sascha

2015-04-01

Coastal areas are highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change and handling is difficult. Adaption to two different situations has to be taken into account. On the one hand, increasing global sea level in combination with increased precipitation and higher storm surge frequency has to be handled. On the other hand, in summer periods due to the increase of temperature, enhanced evapotranspiration and an increase of salty seawater intrusion into groundwater have to be managed. In this study we present different landuse management scenarios on a coastal area in Northwest Germany, East Frisia, and their effect on the hydrological response. Landuse is dominated by dairy farming and intensive crop farming. 30 percent of the area lies below sea level. A dense channel network in combination with several pumping stations allows permeant drainage. The soils are characterised by marsh soils and impermeable layers which prevent an interaction with the confined brackish aquifer. Observations in those areas indicate a high salinity with concentrations peaking during the summer period. The landuse strategies include a scenario that the technological level of the management will be adapted to rainfall and sea level but without additional drainage from the hinterland to reduce salt water concentration. A second scenario includes the adaptation to increasing precipitation and the sea level with a polder system and wetland areas designated as potential buffer for winter storm surges and inland floods and as freshwater storage for dry summer periods. Two scenarios use large polder areas in the future as potential buffer for winter storm surges and inland floods and as freshwater storage for dry summer periods, additional usage for nature conservation and as the storage of carbon sequestration or extensive farming are planned. Also, stakeholders have developed a system of several smaller polders in combination with an intensification of the water resource management, and this is used as a third landuse scenario. A hydrological model that couples surface water and groundwater interactions is used. Several climate scenarios based on the IPCC emission scenarios are applied (A1B, A2 and B1 are used to cover an increase of future temperature between 1 and 3.5 K) in combination with three different heights of sea water level increase. Furthermore, the effectivity of the scenarios in respect to ecosystem services and economic efficiency are calculated. The business as usual scenario is able to guaranty the current farming strategy by coastal defences and prevention of inundation, but the cost intensive pumping rates increase. Areas with subsurface preferential pathways for groundwater to the land surface have the potential to be affected by salinization of groundwater, soil and drainages, without coastal defences to be able to prevent that. The large polder systems are able to buffer the increasing precipitation volumes to the price of losing 20 percent of the agriculture area and locally the creation of a completely different landscape. The polders are used effectively to store freshwater in summer periods and can actually also be used to prevent salinization. The stakeholder scenario with small distributed polders have a comparable effect with the benefit of preserving the original landscape and higher acceptance by the local residents, but with higher cost for more elaborate water resources management and maintenance.

Strategic Analysis Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cirillo, William M.; Earle, Kevin D.; Goodliff, Kandyce E.; Reeves, J. D.; Stromgren, Chel; Andraschko, Mark R.; Merrill, R. Gabe

2008-01-01

NASA s Constellation Program employs a strategic analysis methodology in providing an integrated analysis capability of Lunar exploration scenarios and to support strategic decision-making regarding those scenarios. The strategic analysis methodology integrates the assessment of the major contributors to strategic objective satisfaction performance, affordability, and risk and captures the linkages and feedbacks between all three components. Strategic analysis supports strategic decision making by senior management through comparable analysis of alternative strategies, provision of a consistent set of high level value metrics, and the enabling of cost-benefit analysis. The tools developed to implement the strategic analysis methodology are not element design and sizing tools. Rather, these models evaluate strategic performance using predefined elements, imported into a library from expert-driven design/sizing tools or expert analysis. Specific components of the strategic analysis tool set include scenario definition, requirements generation, mission manifesting, scenario lifecycle costing, crew time analysis, objective satisfaction benefit, risk analysis, and probabilistic evaluation. Results from all components of strategic analysis are evaluated a set of pre-defined figures of merit (FOMs). These FOMs capture the high-level strategic characteristics of all scenarios and facilitate direct comparison of options. The strategic analysis methodology that is described in this paper has previously been applied to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station Programs and is now being used to support the development of the baseline Constellation Program lunar architecture. This paper will present an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and will present sample results from the application of the strategic analysis methodology to the Constellation Program lunar architecture.

The use of multi criteria analysis to compare the operating scenarios of the hybrid generation system of wind turbines, photovoltaic modules and a fuel cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceran, Bartosz

2017-11-01

The paper presents the results of the use of multi-criteria analysis to compare hybrid power generation system collaboration scenarios (HSW) consisting of wind turbines, solar panels and energy storage electrolyzer - PEM type fuel cell with electricity system. The following scenarios were examined: the base S-I-hybrid system powers the off-grid mode receiver, S-II, S-III, S-IV scenarios-electricity system covers 25%, 50%, 75% of energy demand by the recipient. The effect of weights of the above-mentioned criteria on the final result of the multi-criteria analysis was examined.

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal; Stutts, Richard; Huang, Zhaofeng

2015-01-01

Since the Space Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, NASA has extensively used probabilistic analysis methods to assess, understand, and communicate the risk of space launch vehicles. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), used in the nuclear industry, is one of the probabilistic analysis methods NASA utilizes to assess Loss of Mission (LOM) and Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability distributions to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: 1) what can go wrong that would lead to loss or degraded performance (i.e., scenarios involving undesired consequences of interest), 2) how likely is it (probabilities), and 3) what is the severity of the degradation (consequences). Since the Challenger accident, PRA has been used in supporting decisions regarding safety upgrades for launch vehicles. Another area that was given a lot of emphasis at NASA after the Challenger accident is reliability engineering. Reliability engineering has been a critical design function at NASA since the early Apollo days. However, after the Challenger accident, quantitative reliability analysis and reliability predictions were given more scrutiny because of their importance in understanding failure mechanism and quantifying the probability of failure, which are key elements in resolving technical issues, performing design trades, and implementing design improvements. Although PRA and reliability are both probabilistic in nature and, in some cases, use the same tools, they are two different activities. Specifically, reliability engineering is a broad design discipline that deals with loss of function and helps understand failure mechanism and improve component and system design. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment process intended to assess the risk scenarios that could lead to a major/top undesirable system event, and to identify those scenarios that are high-risk drivers. PRA output is critical to support risk informed decisions concerning system design. This paper describes the PRA process and the reliability engineering discipline in detail. It discusses their differences and similarities and how they work together as complementary analyses to support the design and risk assessment processes. Lessons learned, applications, and case studies in both areas are also discussed in the paper to demonstrate and explain these differences and similarities.

Dry-bean production under climate change conditions in the north of Argentina: Risk assessment and economic implications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feijoo, M.; Mestre, F.; Castagnaro, A.

This study evaluates the potential effect of climate change on Dry-bean production in Argentina, combining climate models, a crop productivity model and a yield response model estimation of climate variables on crop yields. The study was carried out in the North agricultural regions of Jujuy, Salta, Santiago del Estero and Tucuman which include the largest areas of Argentina where dry beans are grown as a high input crop. The paper combines the output from a crop model with different techniques of analysis. The scenarios used in this study were generated from the output of two General Circulation Models (GCMs): themore » Goddard Institute for Space Studies model (GISS) and the Canadian Climate Change Model (CCCM). The study also includes a preliminary evaluation of the potential changes in monetary returns taking into account the possible variability of yields and prices, using mean-Gini stochastic dominance (MGSD). The results suggest that large climate change may have a negative impact on the Argentine agriculture sector, due to the high relevance of this product in the export sector. The difference negative effect depends on the varieties of dry bean and also the General Circulation Model scenarios considered for double levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.« less

Molecular Evidence for a Natural Primary Triple Hybrid in Plants Revealed from Direct Sequencing

PubMed Central

Kaplan, Zdenek; Fehrer, Judith

2007-01-01

Background and Aims Molecular evidence for natural primary hybrids composed of three different plant species is very rarely reported. An investigation was therefore carried out into the origin and a possible scenario for the rise of a sterile plant clone showing a combination of diagnostic morphological features of three separate, well-defined Potamogeton species. Methods The combination of sequences from maternally inherited cytoplasmic (rpl20-rps12) and biparentally inherited nuclear ribosomal DNA (ITS) was used to identify the exact identity of the putative triple hybrid. Key Results Direct sequencing showed ITS variants of three parental taxa, P. gramineus, P. lucens and P. perfoliatus, whereas chloroplast DNA identified P. perfoliatus as the female parent. A scenario for the rise of the triple hybrid through a fertile binary hybrid P. gramineus × P. lucens crossed with P. perfoliatus is described. Conclusions Even though the triple hybrid is sterile, it possesses an efficient strategy for its existence and became locally successful even in the parental environment, perhaps as a result of heterosis. The population investigated is the only one known of this hybrid, P. × torssanderi, worldwide. Isozyme analysis indicated the colony to be genetically uniform. The plants studied represented a single clone that seems to have persisted at this site for a long time. PMID:17478544

Groundwater-abstraction induced land subsidence and groundwater regulation in the North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, H.; Wang, L.; Cheng, G.; Zhang, Z.

2015-11-01

Land subsidence can be induced when various factors such as geological, and hydrogeological conditions and intensive groundwater abstraction combine. The development and utilization of groundwater in the North China Plain (NCP) bring great benefits, and at the same time have led to a series of environmental and geological problems accompanying groundwater-level declines and land subsidence. Subsidence occurs commonly in the NCP and analyses show that multi-layer aquifer systems with deep confined aquifers and thick compressible clay layers are the key geological and hydrogeological conditions responsible for its development in this region. Groundwater overdraft results in aquifer-system compaction, resulting in subsidence. A calibrated, transient groundwater-flow numerical model of the Beijing plain portion of the NCP was developed using MODFLOW. According to available water supply and demand in Beijing plain, several groundwater regulation scenarios were designed. These different regulation scenarios were simulated with the groundwater model, and assessed using a multi-criteria fuzzy pattern recognition model. This approach is proven to be very useful for scientific analysis of sustainable development and utilization of groundwater resources. The evaluation results show that sustainable development of groundwater resources may be achieved in Beijing plain when various measures such as control of groundwater abstraction and increase of artificial recharge combine favourably.

Computational Identification of Mechanistic Factors That Determine the Timing and Intensity of the Inflammatory Response

PubMed Central

Nagaraja, Sridevi; Reifman, Jaques; Mitrophanov, Alexander Y.

2015-01-01

Timely resolution of inflammation is critical for the restoration of homeostasis in injured or infected tissue. Chronic inflammation is often characterized by a persistent increase in the concentrations of inflammatory cells and molecular mediators, whose distinct amount and timing characteristics offer an opportunity to identify effective therapeutic regulatory targets. Here, we used our recently developed computational model of local inflammation to identify potential targets for molecular interventions and to investigate the effects of individual and combined inhibition of such targets. This was accomplished via the development and application of computational strategies involving the simulation and analysis of thousands of inflammatory scenarios. We found that modulation of macrophage influx and efflux is an effective potential strategy to regulate the amount of inflammatory cells and molecular mediators in both normal and chronic inflammatory scenarios. We identified three molecular mediators − tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β), and the chemokine CXCL8 − as potential molecular targets whose individual or combined inhibition may robustly regulate both the amount and timing properties of the kinetic trajectories for neutrophils and macrophages in chronic inflammation. Modulation of macrophage flux, as well as of the abundance of TNF-α, TGF-β, and CXCL8, may improve the resolution of chronic inflammation. PMID:26633296

Overview of the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, Marc; Bush, Brian; Penev, Michael

This presentation provides an introduction to the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) and includes an overview of each of the three versions of H2FAST: the Web tool, the Excel spreadsheet version, and the beta version of the H2FAST Business Case Scenario tool.

Annual Technology Baseline and Standard Scenarios | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov Websites

electric sector analysis in the United States. NREL analysts consistently apply the products of this work Scenarios Annual Report and A U.S. Electric Sector Outlook - This annual report presents an outlook of the U.S. electricity sector based on a suite of standard scenarios with their associated assumptions

Combining evidence from multiple electronic health care databases: performances of one-stage and two-stage meta-analysis in matched case-control studies.

PubMed

La Gamba, Fabiola; Corrao, Giovanni; Romio, Silvana; Sturkenboom, Miriam; Trifirò, Gianluca; Schink, Tania; de Ridder, Maria

2017-10-01

Clustering of patients in databases is usually ignored in one-stage meta-analysis of multi-database studies using matched case-control data. The aim of this study was to compare bias and efficiency of such a one-stage meta-analysis with a two-stage meta-analysis. First, we compared the approaches by generating matched case-control data under 5 simulated scenarios, built by varying: (1) the exposure-outcome association; (2) its variability among databases; (3) the confounding strength of one covariate on this association; (4) its variability; and (5) the (heterogeneous) confounding strength of two covariates. Second, we made the same comparison using empirical data from the ARITMO project, a multiple database study investigating the risk of ventricular arrhythmia following the use of medications with arrhythmogenic potential. In our study, we specifically investigated the effect of current use of promethazine. Bias increased for one-stage meta-analysis with increasing (1) between-database variance of exposure effect and (2) heterogeneous confounding generated by two covariates. The efficiency of one-stage meta-analysis was slightly lower than that of two-stage meta-analysis for the majority of investigated scenarios. Based on ARITMO data, there were no evident differences between one-stage (OR = 1.50, CI = [1.08; 2.08]) and two-stage (OR = 1.55, CI = [1.12; 2.16]) approaches. When the effect of interest is heterogeneous, a one-stage meta-analysis ignoring clustering gives biased estimates. Two-stage meta-analysis generates estimates at least as accurate and precise as one-stage meta-analysis. However, in a study using small databases and rare exposures and/or outcomes, a correct one-stage meta-analysis becomes essential. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, M.

This presentation provides an overview of the Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model, describes the methodology for developing scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure development, outlines an example "Hydrogen Success" scenario, and discusses detailed scenario metrics for a particular case study region, the Northeast Corridor.

Supporting Primary-Level Mathematics Teachers' Collaboration in Designing and Using Technology-Based Scenarios

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Misfeldt, Morten; Zacho, Lis

2016-01-01

In this article, we address how the design of educational scenarios can support teachers' adoption of both technology and open-ended projects indorsing creativity and innovation. We do that by describing how groups of teachers develop digital learning environments supporting using a combination of GeoGebra and Google sites. Both teachers and…

Projected Employment Scenarios Show Possible Shortages in Some Engineering and Computer Specialties. Science Resources Studies Highlights.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. Div. of Science Resources Studies.

This report presents findings of a National Science Foundation (NSF) assessment of the adequacy of the supply of science, engineering, and technician (SET) personnel for meeting defense and non-defense requirements between 1982 and 1987. Selected findings included in the report follow. Based on four scenarios representing combinations of low and…

Navier-Stokes flow field analysis of compressible flow in a high pressure safety relief valve

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vu, Bruce; Wang, Ten-See; Shih, Ming-Hsin; Soni, Bharat

1993-01-01

The objective of this study is to investigate the complex three-dimensional flowfield of an oxygen safety pressure relieve valve during an incident, with a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) analysis. Specifically, the analysis will provide a flow pattern that would lead to the expansion of the eventual erosion pattern of the hardware, so as to combine it with other findings to piece together a most likely scenario for the investigation. The CFD model is a pressure based solver. An adaptive upwind difference scheme is employed for the spatial discretization, and a predictor, multiple corrector method is used for the velocity-pressure coupling. The computational result indicated vortices formation near the opening of the valve which matched the erosion pattern of the damaged hardware.

Modelling multiple sources of dissemination bias in meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bowden, Jack; Jackson, Dan; Thompson, Simon G

2010-03-30

Asymmetry in the funnel plot for a meta-analysis suggests the presence of dissemination bias. This may be caused by publication bias through the decisions of journal editors, by selective reporting of research results by authors or by a combination of both. Typically, study results that are statistically significant or have larger estimated effect sizes are more likely to appear in the published literature, hence giving a biased picture of the evidence-base. Previous statistical approaches for addressing dissemination bias have assumed only a single selection mechanism. Here we consider a more realistic scenario in which multiple dissemination processes, involving both the publishing authors and journals, are operating. In practical applications, the methods can be used to provide sensitivity analyses for the potential effects of multiple dissemination biases operating in meta-analysis.

Landscape Characterization and Representativeness Analysis for Understanding Sampling Network Coverage

DOE Data Explorer

Maddalena, Damian; Hoffman, Forrest; Kumar, Jitendra; Hargrove, William

2014-08-01

Sampling networks rarely conform to spatial and temporal ideals, often comprised of network sampling points which are unevenly distributed and located in less than ideal locations due to access constraints, budget limitations, or political conflict. Quantifying the global, regional, and temporal representativeness of these networks by quantifying the coverage of network infrastructure highlights the capabilities and limitations of the data collected, facilitates upscaling and downscaling for modeling purposes, and improves the planning efforts for future infrastructure investment under current conditions and future modeled scenarios. The work presented here utilizes multivariate spatiotemporal clustering analysis and representativeness analysis for quantitative landscape characterization and assessment of the Fluxnet, RAINFOR, and ForestGEO networks. Results include ecoregions that highlight patterns of bioclimatic, topographic, and edaphic variables and quantitative representativeness maps of individual and combined networks.

Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

2014-02-01

Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

Default values for assessment of potential dermal exposure of the hands to industrial chemicals in the scope of regulatory risk assessments.

PubMed

Marquart, Hans; Warren, Nicholas D; Laitinen, Juha; van Hemmen, Joop J

2006-07-01

Dermal exposure needs to be addressed in regulatory risk assessment of chemicals. The models used so far are based on very limited data. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a large number of new measurements on dermal exposure to industrial chemicals in various work situations, together with information on possible determinants of exposure. These data and information, together with some non-RISKOFDERM data were used to derive default values for potential dermal exposure of the hands for so-called 'TGD exposure scenarios'. TGD exposure scenarios have similar values for some very important determinant(s) of dermal exposure, such as amount of substance used. They form narrower bands within the so-called 'RISKOFDERM scenarios', which cluster exposure situations according to the same purpose of use of the products. The RISKOFDERM scenarios in turn are narrower bands within the so-called Dermal Exposure Operation units (DEO units) that were defined in the RISKOFDERM project to cluster situations with similar exposure processes and exposure routes. Default values for both reasonable worst case situations and typical situations were derived, both for single datasets and, where possible, for combined datasets that fit the same TGD exposure scenario. The following reasonable worst case potential hand exposures were derived from combined datasets: (i) loading and filling of large containers (or mixers) with large amounts (many litres) of liquids: 11,500 mg per scenario (14 mg cm(-2) per scenario with surface of the hands assumed to be 820 cm(2)); (ii) careful mixing of small quantities (tens of grams in <1l): 4.1 mg per scenario (0.005 mg cm(-2) per scenario); (iii) spreading of (viscous) liquids with a comb on a large surface area: 130 mg per scenario (0.16 mg cm(-2) per scenario); (iv) brushing and rolling of (relatively viscous) liquid products on surfaces: 6500 mg per scenario (8 mg cm(-2) per scenario) and (v) spraying large amounts of liquids (paints, cleaning products) on large areas: 12,000 mg per scenario (14 mg cm(-2) per scenario). These default values are considered useful for estimating exposure for similar substances in similar situations with low uncertainty. Several other default values based on single datasets can also be used, but lead to estimates with a higher uncertainty, due to their more limited basis. Sufficient analogy in all described parameters of the scenario, including duration, is needed to enable proper use of the default values. The default values lead to similar estimates as the RISKOFDERM dermal exposure model that was based on the same datasets, but uses very different parameters. Both approaches are preferred over older general models, such as EASE, that are not based on data from actual dermal exposure situations.

Calibration of Passive Microwave Polarimeters that Use Hybrid Coupler-Based Correlators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Piepmeier, J. R.

2003-01-01

Four calibration algorithms are studied for microwave polarimeters that use hybrid coupler-based correlators: 1) conventional two-look of hot and cold sources, 2) three looks of hot and cold source combinations, 3) two-look with correlated source, and 4) four-look combining methods 2 and 3. The systematic errors are found to depend on the polarimeter component parameters and accuracy of calibration noise temperatures. A case study radiometer in four different remote sensing scenarios was considered in light of these results. Applications for Ocean surface salinity, Ocean surface winds, and soil moisture were found to be sensitive to different systematic errors. Finally, a standard uncertainty analysis was performed on the four-look calibration algorithm, which was found to be most sensitive to the correlated calibration source.

Scenario analysis on the goal of carbon emission peaking around 2030 of China proposed in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, T.

2015-12-01

A goal of carbon (C) emission peaking around 2030 of China was declared in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change, and emphasized in China's intended nationally determined contributions (INDC). Here, we predicted the carbon emission of China during the period 2011~2050 under seven scenarios, and analyzed the scientific and social implications of realizing the goal. Our results showed that: (1) C emissions of China will reach their peaks at 2022~2045 (with peak values 3.15~5.10 Pg C), and the predicted decay rates of C intensity were 2.1~4.2% in 2011~2050; (2) the precondition that the national C emission reaches the peak before 2030 is that the annual decay rates of C intensity must exceed 3.3% , as decay rates under different scenarios were predicted higher than that except for Past G8 scenario; (3) the national C emission would reach the peak before 2030, if the government of China should realize the C emissions reduction goals of China's 12th five-year plan, climate commitments of Copenhagen and INDC; (4) Chinese government could realize the goal of C emission peaking around 2030 from just controlling C emission intensity , but associated with relatively higher government's burden. In summary, China's C emission may well peak before 2030, meanwhile the combination of emissions reduction and economic macro-control would be demanded to avoid heavier social pressure of C emissions reduction occurred.

Handling incomplete correlated continuous and binary outcomes in meta-analysis of individual participant data.

PubMed

Gomes, Manuel; Hatfield, Laura; Normand, Sharon-Lise

2016-09-20

Meta-analysis of individual participant data (IPD) is increasingly utilised to improve the estimation of treatment effects, particularly among different participant subgroups. An important concern in IPD meta-analysis relates to partially or completely missing outcomes for some studies, a problem exacerbated when interest is on multiple discrete and continuous outcomes. When leveraging information from incomplete correlated outcomes across studies, the fully observed outcomes may provide important information about the incompleteness of the other outcomes. In this paper, we compare two models for handling incomplete continuous and binary outcomes in IPD meta-analysis: a joint hierarchical model and a sequence of full conditional mixed models. We illustrate how these approaches incorporate the correlation across the multiple outcomes and the between-study heterogeneity when addressing the missing data. Simulations characterise the performance of the methods across a range of scenarios which differ according to the proportion and type of missingness, strength of correlation between outcomes and the number of studies. The joint model provided confidence interval coverage consistently closer to nominal levels and lower mean squared error compared with the fully conditional approach across the scenarios considered. Methods are illustrated in a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials comparing the effectiveness of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator devices alone to implantable cardioverter-defibrillator combined with cardiac resynchronisation therapy for treating patients with chronic heart failure. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Life cycle analysis of pistachio production in Greece.

PubMed

Bartzas, Georgios; Komnitsas, Kostas

2017-10-01

In the present paper, a life cycle assessment (LCA) study regarding pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) cultivation in Aegina island, Greece, was performed to evaluate the energy use footprint and the associated environmental impacts. In this context, a detailed life cycle inventory was created based on site-survey data and used for a holistic cradle-to-farm gate LCA analysis using the GaBi 6.5 software. The main impact categories assessed were acidification potential (AP), eutrophication potential (EP), global warming potential (GWP), ozone depletion potential (ODP), photochemical ozone creation potential (POCP) and cumulative energy demand (CED). In order to reveal the main environmental concerns pertinent to pistachio production and in turn propose measures for the reduction of environmental and energetic impacts, three scenarios were compared, namely the Baseline scenario (BS) that involves current cultivation practices, the Green Energy (GE) scenario that involves the use of biological fertilizers i.e. compost, and the Waste Utilization (WU) scenario that involves the production of biochar from pistachio and other agricultural wastes and its subsequent soil application to promote carbon sequestration and improve soil quality. Based on the results of this study, the use of compost for fertilization (GE scenario), which results in approximately 9% savings in terms of energy consumption and the five environmental impact categories studied compared to BS scenario, is considered a promising alternative cultivation strategy. Slightly higher savings (10% on average) in terms of the five calculated environmental impact categories, compared to the BS scenario, were indicated when the WU scenario was considered. Regarding energy consumption, the WU scenario results in minor increase, 3%, compared to the BS scenario. Results of uncertainty analysis performed using the Monte Carlo technique and contribution analysis showed that GE and WU scenarios offer reliable and significant eco-profile improvements for pistachio production in the study area compared to the current situation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Wave Mode Discrimination of Coded Ultrasonic Guided Waves Using Two-Dimensional Compressed Pulse Analysis.

PubMed

Malo, Sergio; Fateri, Sina; Livadas, Makis; Mares, Cristinel; Gan, Tat-Hean

2017-07-01

Ultrasonic guided waves testing is a technique successfully used in many industrial scenarios worldwide. For many complex applications, the dispersive nature and multimode behavior of the technique still poses a challenge for correct defect detection capabilities. In order to improve the performance of the guided waves, a 2-D compressed pulse analysis is presented in this paper. This novel technique combines the use of pulse compression and dispersion compensation in order to improve the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and temporal-spatial resolution of the signals. The ability of the technique to discriminate different wave modes is also highlighted. In addition, an iterative algorithm is developed to identify the wave modes of interest using adaptive peak detection to enable automatic wave mode discrimination. The employed algorithm is developed in order to pave the way for further in situ applications. The performance of Barker-coded and chirp waveforms is studied in a multimodal scenario where longitudinal and flexural wave packets are superposed. The technique is tested in both synthetic and experimental conditions. The enhancements in SNR and temporal resolution are quantified as well as their ability to accurately calculate the propagation distance for different wave modes.

Hybrid life-cycle assessment of natural gas based fuel chains for transportation.

PubMed

Strømman, Anders Hammer; Solli, Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G

2006-04-15

This research compares the use of natural gas, methanol, and hydrogen as transportation fuels. These three fuel chains start with the extraction and processing of natural gas in the Norwegian North Sea and end with final use in Central Europe. The end use is passenger transportation with a sub-compact car that has an internal combustion engine for the natural gas case and a fuel cell for the methanol and hydrogen cases. The life cycle assessment is performed by combining a process based life-cycle inventory with economic input-output data. The analysis shows that the potential climate impacts are lowest for the hydrogen fuel scenario with CO2 deposition. The hydrogen fuel chain scenario has no significant environmental disadvantage compared to the other fuel chains. Detailed analysis shows that the construction of the car contributes significantly to most impact categories. Finally, it is shown how the application of a hybrid inventory model ensures a more complete inventory description compared to standard process-based life-cycle assessment. This is particularly significant for car construction which would have been significantly underestimated in this study using standard process life-cycle assessment alone.

Sustainable food security in India-Domestic production and macronutrient availability.

PubMed

Ritchie, Hannah; Reay, David; Higgins, Peter

2018-01-01

India has been perceived as a development enigma: Recent rates of economic growth have not been matched by similar rates in health and nutritional improvements. To meet the second Sustainable Development Goal (SDG2) of achieving zero hunger by 2030, India faces a substantial challenge in meeting basic nutritional needs in addition to addressing population, environmental and dietary pressures. Here we have mapped-for the first time-the Indian food system from crop production to household-level availability across three key macronutrients categories of 'calories', 'digestible protein' and 'fat'. To better understand the potential of reduced food chain losses and improved crop yields to close future food deficits, scenario analysis was conducted to 2030 and 2050. Under India's current self-sufficiency model, our analysis indicates severe shortfalls in availability of all macronutrients across a large proportion (>60%) of the Indian population. The extent of projected shortfalls continues to grow such that, even in ambitious waste reduction and yield scenarios, enhanced domestic production alone will be inadequate in closing the nutrition supply gap. We suggest that to meet SDG2 India will need to take a combined approach of optimising domestic production and increasing its participation in global trade.

Sustainable food security in India—Domestic production and macronutrient availability

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

India has been perceived as a development enigma: Recent rates of economic growth have not been matched by similar rates in health and nutritional improvements. To meet the second Sustainable Development Goal (SDG2) of achieving zero hunger by 2030, India faces a substantial challenge in meeting basic nutritional needs in addition to addressing population, environmental and dietary pressures. Here we have mapped—for the first time—the Indian food system from crop production to household-level availability across three key macronutrients categories of ‘calories’, ‘digestible protein’ and ‘fat’. To better understand the potential of reduced food chain losses and improved crop yields to close future food deficits, scenario analysis was conducted to 2030 and 2050. Under India’s current self-sufficiency model, our analysis indicates severe shortfalls in availability of all macronutrients across a large proportion (>60%) of the Indian population. The extent of projected shortfalls continues to grow such that, even in ambitious waste reduction and yield scenarios, enhanced domestic production alone will be inadequate in closing the nutrition supply gap. We suggest that to meet SDG2 India will need to take a combined approach of optimising domestic production and increasing its participation in global trade. PMID:29570702

Future groundwater extraction scenarios for an aquifer in a semiarid environment: case study of Guadalupe Valley Aquifer, Baja California, Northwest Mexico.

PubMed

Campos-Gaytan, Jose Ruben; Kretzschmar, Thomas; Herrera-Oliva, Claudia Soledad

2014-11-01

Semiarid northwestern Mexico presents a growing water demand produced by agricultural and domestic requirements during the last two decades. The community of Guadalupe Valley and the city of Ensenada rely on groundwater pumping from the local aquifer as its sole source of water supply. This dependency has resulted in an imbalance between groundwater pumpage and natural recharge. A two-dimensional groundwater flow model was applied to the Guadalupe Valley Aquifer, which was calibrated and validated for the period 1984-2005. The model analysis verified that groundwater levels in the region are subject to steep declines due to decades of intensive groundwater exploitation for agricultural and domestic purposes. The calibrated model was used to assess the effects of different water management scenarios for the period 2007-2025. If the base case (status quo) scenario continues, groundwater levels are in a continuous drawdown trend. Some wells would run dry by August 2017, and water demand may not be met without incurring in an overdraft. The optimistic scenario implies the achievement of the mean groundwater recharge and discharge. Groundwater level depletion could be stopped and restored. The sustainable scenario implies the reduction of current extraction (up to about 50 %), when groundwater level depletion could be stopped. A reduction in current extraction mitigates water stress in the aquifer but cannot solely reverse declining water tables across the region. The combination of reduced current extraction and an implemented alternative solution (such as groundwater artificial recharge), provides the most effective measure to stabilize and reverse declining groundwater levels while meeting water demands in the region.

Influences of man-made emissions and climate changes on tropospheric ozone, methane, and sulfate at 2030 from a broad range of possible futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unger, Nadine; Shindell, Drew T.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Amann, Markus; Cofala, Janusz; Streets, David G.

2006-06-01

We apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies composition-climate model to an assessment of tropospheric O3, CH4, and sulfate at 2030. We compare four different anthropogenic emissions forecasts: A1B and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and Current Legislation (CLE) and Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. The projections encompass a wide range of possible man-made emissions changes. The A1B, B1, and CLE forecasts all suggest large increases in surface O3 and sulfate baseline pollution at tropical and subtropical latitudes, especially over the Indian subcontinent, where the pollution increases may be as large as 100%. The ranges of annual mean regional ground level O3 and sulfate changes across all scenarios are -10 to +30 ppbv and -1200 to +3000 pptv, respectively. Physical climate changes reduce future surface O3, but tend to increase ground level sulfate locally over North Africa because of an enhancement of aqueous-phase SO2 oxidation. For all examined future scenarios the combined sum of the CH4, O3, and sulfate radiative forcings is positive, even for the MFR scenario, because of the large reduction in sulfate. For A1B the forcings are as much as half of that of the preindustrial to present-day forcing for each species. For MFR the sign of the forcing for each species is reversed with respect to the other scenarios. At 2030, global changes in climate-sensitive natural emissions of CH4 from wetlands, NOx from lightning, and dimethyl sulfide from the ocean appear to be small (<5%).

Multi-task Gaussian process for imputing missing data in multi-trait and multi-environment trials.

PubMed

Hori, Tomoaki; Montcho, David; Agbangla, Clement; Ebana, Kaworu; Futakuchi, Koichi; Iwata, Hiroyoshi

2016-11-01

A method based on a multi-task Gaussian process using self-measuring similarity gave increased accuracy for imputing missing phenotypic data in multi-trait and multi-environment trials. Multi-environmental trial (MET) data often encounter the problem of missing data. Accurate imputation of missing data makes subsequent analysis more effective and the results easier to understand. Moreover, accurate imputation may help to reduce the cost of phenotyping for thinned-out lines tested in METs. METs are generally performed for multiple traits that are correlated to each other. Correlation among traits can be useful information for imputation, but single-trait-based methods cannot utilize information shared by traits that are correlated. In this paper, we propose imputation methods based on a multi-task Gaussian process (MTGP) using self-measuring similarity kernels reflecting relationships among traits, genotypes, and environments. This framework allows us to use genetic correlation among multi-trait multi-environment data and also to combine MET data and marker genotype data. We compared the accuracy of three MTGP methods and iterative regularized PCA using rice MET data. Two scenarios for the generation of missing data at various missing rates were considered. The MTGP performed a better imputation accuracy than regularized PCA, especially at high missing rates. Under the 'uniform' scenario, in which missing data arise randomly, inclusion of marker genotype data in the imputation increased the imputation accuracy at high missing rates. Under the 'fiber' scenario, in which missing data arise in all traits for some combinations between genotypes and environments, the inclusion of marker genotype data decreased the imputation accuracy for most traits while increasing the accuracy in a few traits remarkably. The proposed methods will be useful for solving the missing data problem in MET data.

Water and Climate Impacts on Power System Operations: The Importance of Cooling Systems and Demand Response Measures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Macknick, Jordan; Zhou, Ella; O'Connell, Matthew

The U.S. electricity sector is highly dependent upon water resources; changes in water temperatures and water availability can affect operational costs and the reliability of power systems. Despite the importance of water for power system operations, the effects of changes in water characteristics on multiple generators in a system are generally not modeled. Moreover, demand response measures, which can change the magnitude and timing of loads and can have beneficial impacts on power system operations, have not yet been evaluated in the context of water-related power vulnerabilities. This effort provides a first comprehensive vulnerability and cost analysis of water-related impactsmore » on a modeled power system and the potential for demand response measures to address vulnerability and cost concerns. This study uniquely combines outputs and inputs of a water and power plant system model, production cost, model, and relative capacity value model to look at variations in cooling systems, policy-related thermal curtailments, and demand response measures to characterize costs and vulnerability for a test system. Twenty-five scenarios over the course of one year are considered: a baseline scenario as well as a suite of scenarios to evaluate six cooling system combinations, the inclusion or exclusion of policy-related thermal curtailments, and the inclusion or exclusion of demand response measures. A water and power plant system model is utilized to identify changes in power plant efficiencies resulting from ambient conditions, a production cost model operating at an hourly scale is used to calculate generation technology dispatch and costs, and a relative capacity value model is used to evaluate expected loss of carrying capacity for the test system.« less

Predicting Plant Diversity Patterns in Madagascar: Understanding the Effects of Climate and Land Cover Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot

PubMed Central

Brown, Kerry A.; Parks, Katherine E.; Bethell, Colin A.; Johnson, Steig E.; Mulligan, Mark

2015-01-01

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar’s plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future. PMID:25856241

Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Brown, Kerry A; Parks, Katherine E; Bethell, Colin A; Johnson, Steig E; Mulligan, Mark

2015-01-01

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.

Concurrent elevation of CO2, O3 and temperature severely affects oil quality and quantity in rapeseed.

PubMed

Namazkar, Shahla; Stockmarr, Anders; Frenck, Georg; Egsgaard, Helge; Terkelsen, Thilde; Mikkelsen, Teis; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Jørgensen, Rikke Bagger

2016-07-01

Plant oil is an essential dietary and bio-energy resource. Despite this, the effects of climate change on plant oil quality remain to be elucidated. The present study is the first to show changes in oil quality and quantity of four rapeseed cultivars in climate scenarios with elevated [CO2], [O3] and temperature (T) combined and as single factors. The combination of environmental factors resembled IPCC's 'business as usual' emission scenario predicted for late this century. Generally, the climate scenarios reduced the average amounts of the six fatty acids (FAs) analysed, though in some treatments single FAs remained unchanged or even increased. Most reduced was the FA essential for human nutrition, C18:3-ω3, which decreased by 39% and 45% in the combined scenarios with elevated [CO2]+T+[O3] and [CO2]+T, respectively. Average oil content decreased 3-17%. When [CO2] and T were elevated concurrently, the seed biomass was reduced by half, doubling the losses in FAs and oil content. This corresponded to a 58% reduction in the oil yield per hectare, and C18:3-ω3 decreased by 77%. Furthermore, the polyunsaturated FAs were significantly decreased. The results indicate undesirable consequences for production and health benefits of rapeseed oil with future climate change. The results also showed strong interactive effects of CO2, T and O3 on oil quality, demonstrating why prediction of climate effects requires experiments with combined factors and should not be based on extrapolation from single factor experiments. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology.

Future methane emissions from the heavy-duty natural gas transportation sector for stasis, high, medium, and low scenarios in 2035.

PubMed

Clark, Nigel N; Johnson, Derek R; McKain, David L; Wayne, W Scott; Li, Hailin; Rudek, Joseph; Mongold, Ronald A; Sandoval, Cesar; Covington, April N; Hailer, John T

2017-12-01

Today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than 2% of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50%. Although fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas-fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet penetration is low, today's total fleet-wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas-fueled vehicles, and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These "pump-to-wheels"(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete wells-to-wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emissions projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emissions reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions. Newly collected pump-to-wheels methane emissions data for current natural gas technologies were combined with future market growth scenarios, estimated technology advancements, and best practices to examine the climate benefit of future fuel switching. The analysis indicates the necessary targets of efficiency, methane emissions, market penetration, and best practices necessary to enable a pathway for natural gas to reduce the carbon intensity of the heavy-duty transportation sector.

Water within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Constraints and the Impact on Future Global Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Davies, E. G.; Calvin, K. V.; Kim, S. H.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

2017-12-01

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) represent the next generation of future global change scenarios and their inclusion in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios reinforces the importance of a complete understanding of the SSPs. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the effects of limited water supplies on future withdrawals at regional and water basin scales across all SSPs in combination with various climate mitigation scenarios. Water supply is calculated using a global hydrologic model and water data from five ISI-MIP models across the four RCP scenarios. When water constraints are incorporated, our results show that water withdrawals are reduced by as much as 40% across all SSP scenarios without climate policies. As climate policies are imposed and become more stringent, water withdrawals increase in regions already affected by water stress in order to allow for greater biomass production. The results of this research show the importance of including water resource constraints within the SSP scenarios for establishing water withdrawal scenarios under a wide range of scenarios including different climate policies. The results will also provide data products - such as gridded land use and water demand estimates - of potential interest to the impact, adaptation, and vulnerability community following the SSP scenarios.

Multi-criteria decision analysis using hydrological indicators for decision support - a conceptual framework.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butchart-Kuhlmann, Daniel; Kralisch, Sven; Meinhardt, Markus; Fleischer, Melanie

2017-04-01

Assessing the quantity and quality of water available in water stressed environments under various potential climate and land-use changes is necessary for good water and environmental resources management and governance. Within the region covered by the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) project, such areas are common. One goal of the SASSCAL project is to develop and provide an integrated decision support system (DSS) with which decision makers (DMs) within a given catchment can obtain objective information regarding potential changes in water flow quantity and timing. The SASSCAL DSS builds upon existing data storage and distribution capability, through the SASSCAL Information System (IS), as well as the J2000 hydrological model. Using output from validated J2000 models, the SASSCAL DSS incorporates the calculation of a range of hydrological indicators based upon Indicators of Hydrological Alteration/Environmental Flow Components (IHA/EFC) calculated for a historic time series (pre-impact) and a set of model simulations based upon a selection of possible climate and land-use change scenarios (post-impact). These indicators, obtained using the IHA software package, are then used as input for a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) undertaken using the open source diviz software package. The results of these analyses will provide DMs with an indication as to how various hydrological indicators within a catchment may be altered under different future scenarios, as well providing a ranking of how each scenario is preferred according to different DM preferences. Scenarios are represented through a combination of model input data and parameter settings in J2000, and preferences are represented through criteria weighting in the MCDA. Here, the methodology is presented and applied to the J2000 Luanginga model results using a set of hypothetical decision maker preference values as input for an MCDA based on the PROMETHEE II outranking method. Future work on the SASSCAL DSS will entail automation of this process, as well as its application to other hydrological models and land-use and/or climate change scenarios.

Material and energy recovery in integrated waste management systems: a life-cycle costing approach.

PubMed

Massarutto, Antonio; de Carli, Alessandro; Graffi, Matteo

2011-01-01

A critical assumption of studies assessing comparatively waste management options concerns the constant average cost for selective collection regardless the source separation level (SSL) reached, and the neglect of the mass constraint. The present study compares alternative waste management scenarios through the development of a desktop model that tries to remove the above assumption. Several alternative scenarios based on different combinations of energy and materials recovery are applied to two imaginary areas modelled in order to represent a typical Northern Italian setting. External costs and benefits implied by scenarios are also considered. Scenarios are compared on the base of the full cost for treating the total waste generated in the area. The model investigates the factors that influence the relative convenience of alternative scenarios. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Examining the Pilot and Controller Performance Data When in a Free Flight with Weather Phenomenon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nituen, Celestine A.; Lozito, Sandra C. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The present study investigated effects of weather related factors on the performance of pilots under free flight. A weather scenario was defined by a combination of precipitation factors (light rain, moderate rain, and heavy rain or snow), visibility (1,4,8 miles), wind conditions (light, medium, or heavy), cloud ceiling (800ft. below, 1800ft above, and 4000ft horizontal). The performance of the aircraft self-separation was evaluated in terms of detection accuracy and detection times for student- and commercial (expert) pilots. Overall, the results obtained from a behavioral analysis showed that in general, the ability to recognize intruder aircraft conflict incidents, followed by the ability to acquire the spatial location of the intruder aircraft relative to ownership aircraft were judged to be the major cognitive tasks as perceived by the participants during self-separation. Further, the participants rarely used cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) during conflict management related to aircraft separation, but used CDTI highly during decision-making tasks. In all weather scenarios, there were remarkable differences between expert and student pilots in detection times. In summary, weather scenarios were observed to affect intruder aircraft detection performance accuracies. There was interaction effects between weather Scenario-1 and Scenario-2 for climbing task data generated by both expert- and student- pilots at high traffic density. Scenario-3 weather condition provided an opportunity for poor detection accuracy as well as detection time increase. This may be attributed to low visibility. The intruder aircraft detection times were not affected by the weather conditions during climbing and descending tasks. The decision of pilots to fly into certain weather condition was dependent in part on the warning distance to the location of the weather. When pilots were warned of the weather conditions, they were more likely to fly their aircraft into it, but mostly when the warning was not close to the weather location.

Climate impact analysis of waste treatment scenarios--thermal treatment of commercial and pretreated waste versus landfilling in Austria.

PubMed

Ragossnig, A M; Wartha, C; Pomberger, R

2009-11-01

A major challenge for modern waste management lies in a smart integration of waste-to-energy installations in local energy systems in such a way that the energy efficiency of the waste-to-energy plant is optimized and that the energy contained in the waste is, therefore, optimally utilized. The extent of integration of thermal waste treatment processes into regular energy supply systems plays a major role with regard to climate control. In this research, the specific waste management situation looked at scenarios aiming at maximizing the energy recovery from waste (i.e. actual scenario and waste-to-energy process with 75% energy efficiency [22.5% electricity, 52.5% heat]) yield greenhouse gas emission savings due to the fact that more greenhouse gas emissions are avoided in the energy sector than caused by the various waste treatment processes. Comparing dedicated waste-to-energy-systems based on the combined heat and power (CHP) process with concepts based on sole electricity production, the energy efficiency proves to be crucial with regard to climate control. This underlines the importance of choosing appropriate sites for waste-to-energy-plants. This research was looking at the effect with regard to the climate impact of various waste management scenarios that could be applied alternatively by a private waste management company in Austria. The research is, therefore, based on a specific set of data for the waste streams looked at (waste characteristics, logistics needed, etc.). Furthermore, the investigated scenarios have been defined based on the actual available alternatives with regard to the usage of treatment plants for this specific company. The standard scenarios for identifying climate impact implications due to energy recovery from waste are based on the respective marginal energy data for the power and heat generation facilities/industrial processes in Austria.

Disentangling the role of seed bank and dispersal in plant metapopulation dynamics using patch occupancy surveys.

PubMed

Manna, F; Pradel, R; Choquet, R; Fréville, H; Cheptou, P-O

2017-10-01

In plants, the presence of a seed bank challenges the application of classical metapopulation models to aboveground presence surveys; ignoring seed bank leads to overestimated extinction and colonization rates. In this article, we explore the possibility to detect seed bank using hidden Markov models in the analysis of aboveground patch occupancy surveys of an annual plant with limited dispersal. Patch occupancy data were generated by simulation under two metapopulation sizes (N = 200 and N = 1,000 patches) and different metapopulation scenarios, each scenario being a combination of the presence/absence of a 1-yr seed bank and the presence/absence of limited dispersal in a circular 1-dimension configuration of patches. In addition, because local conditions often vary among patches in natural metapopulations, we simulated patch occupancy data with heterogeneous germination rate and patch disturbance. Seed bank is not observable from aboveground patch occupancy surveys, hence hidden Markov models were designed to account for uncertainty in patch occupancy. We explored their ability to retrieve the correct scenario. For 10 yr surveys and metapopulation sizes of N = 200 or 1,000 patches, the correct metapopulation scenario was detected at a rate close to 100%, whatever the underlying scenario considered. For smaller, more realistic, survey duration, the length for a reliable detection of the correct scenario depends on the metapopulation size: 3 yr for N = 1,000 and 6 yr for N = 200 are enough. Our method remained powerful to disentangle seed bank from dispersal in the presence of patch heterogeneity affecting either seed germination or patch extinction. Our work shows that seed bank and limited dispersal generate different signatures on aboveground patch occupancy surveys. Therefore, our method provides a powerful tool to infer metapopulation dynamics in a wide range of species with an undetectable life form. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Epidemiological and partial budget analysis for treatment of subclinical Staphylococcus aureus intramammary infections considering microbiological and cytological scenarios.

PubMed

Petzer, Inge-Marié; Etter, Eric M C; Donkin, Edward F; Webb, Edward C; Karzis, Joanne

2017-12-01

An innovative method was investigated to aid in the elimination of Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) intramammary infections (IMI) from dairy herds. A stochastic model explore the economic benefit of three-day or eight-day treatment of subclinical IMI in all S. aureus infected cows or in only those with a somatic cell count (SCC) exceeding 200,000 cells/ml. An epidemiological model was developed to run parallel to the economic model that would predict the S. aureus IMI likely to persist, develop new infections and clinical mastitis. In the economic model a first algorithm was used to consider the low prevalence (LP) scenario and made use of S. aureus prevalence information provided by retrospective analysis of microbiological and cytological results in South Africa (2008-2012). The data used considered Staphylococcus aureus prevalence from [1.495; 1.595] 95% to [6.72; 6.95] 95% for SCC≤200,000 and SCC>200,000 cells/ml respectively. A second algorithm considered the high prevalence (HP) scenario to evaluate a simulated situation with a 5[U1] [R12] to 25% prevalence. Scenarios of low or high transmission ratio (TR) were included in the model according to the hygiene management on the farm. Probabilities and costs were calculated over 255days. The economic models predicted average cost indices for low S. aureus IMI and low TR to vary from -3179 ZAR (South African Rands) when subclinical cases with SCC higher than 200,000 cell/ml were treated for eight days, to -3663 ZAR when all subclinical S. aureus IMI were treated for three days. With a HP and high TR of S. aureus the average cost indices changed from -18,042 ZAR when none to -5433 ZAR per 255days when all S. aureus IMI were treated for eight days. The epidemiological model in this study predicted substantial benefit of treatment mainly in high TR scenarios. New IMI decreased up to77% in the three-day and up to 91% in the eight-day treatment scenarios. In the HP scenarios, persistent IMI were reduced by 94%. The number of clinical cases predicted with no treatment for subclinical infections was higher than the total number of clinical and subclinical cases in scenarios where cows were treated three or eight days. Initial prudent treatment of subclinical IMI resulted in less overall treatments and less new, persistent and clinical cases. Combined results of economic and epidemiological models indicated that the option that cost the least did not always have the best epidemiological outcome. Models may assist in optimising and balancing decisions relating to financial and IMI. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Climate and change: simulating flooding impacts on urban transport network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pregnolato, Maria; Ford, Alistair; Dawson, Richard

2015-04-01

National-scale climate projections indicate that in the future there will be hotter and drier summers, warmer and wetter winters, together with rising sea levels. The frequency of extreme weather events is expected to increase, causing severe damage to the built environment and disruption of infrastructures (Dawson, 2007), whilst population growth and changed demographics are placing new demands on urban infrastructure. It is therefore essential to ensure infrastructure networks are robust to these changes. This research addresses these challenges by focussing on the development of probabilistic tools for managing risk by modelling urban transport networks within the context of extreme weather events. This paper presents a methodology to investigate the impacts of extreme weather events on urban environment, in particular infrastructure networks, through a combination of climate simulations and spatial representations. By overlaying spatial data on hazard thresholds from a flood model and a flood safety function, mitigated by potential adaptation strategies, different levels of disruption to commuting journeys on road networks are evaluated. The method follows the Catastrophe Modelling approach and it consists of a spatial model, combining deterministic loss models and probabilistic risk assessment techniques. It can be applied to present conditions as well as future uncertain scenarios, allowing the examination of the impacts alongside socio-economic and climate changes. The hazard is determined by simulating free surface water flooding, with the software CityCAT (Glenis et al., 2013). The outputs are overlapped to the spatial locations of a simple network model in GIS, which uses journey-to-work (JTW) observations, supplemented with speed and capacity information. To calculate the disruptive effect of flooding on transport networks, a function relating water depth to safe driving car speed has been developed by combining data from experimental reports (Morris et al., 2011) safety literature (Great Britain Department for Transport, 1999), analysis of videos of cars driving through floodwater, and expert judgement. A preliminary analysis has been run in the Tyne & Wear (in North-East England) region to demonstrate how the analysis can be used to assess the disruptions for commuter journeys due to flooding and will be demonstrated in this paper. The research will also investigate the effectiveness of adaptation strategies for extreme rainfall events, such as permeable surfaces and roof storages for buildings. Multiple scenarios (from the every-day-rainfall to the extreme weather phenomena) will be modelled, with different rainfall rates, rainfall durations and return periods. The comparison between the scenarios in which no interventions are adopted and those improved by one of the adaptation option will be compared to determine the cost-effectiveness of the solution considered. Integrating spatial analysis of transport use with an urban flood model and flood safety function enables the investigation of the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks. Further work will develop the analysis in a number of ways (i) testing a range of flood events with different severity and frequency, (ii) exploration of the influence of climate and socio-economic change (iii) analysis of multiple hazard events and (iv) consideration of cascading disruption across different infrastructure networks.

Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios.

PubMed

Tarancón, Alicia Azpeleta; Fulé, Peter Z; Shive, Kristen L; Sieg, Carolyn H; Meador, Andrew Sánchez; Strom, Barbara

Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multispecies forest of Arizona, USA. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) predictions of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon stock. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon stock relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S. forest management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate and management actions. Managers should incorporate climate change into the process of analyzing the environmental effects of alternative actions.

Improving Conflict Alert Performance Using Moving Target Detector Data.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-01

2 L136 IIIII I lIlS 1 1 10 11120 125 11111I ~1.6 MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHART NATIONAL BUREAU Of SIANDARDg 19bi A DOT/FAA/RD-82/47 DOT/FAA/CT-81...Differences for Stochastic Case 23 7 Illustration of Scenarios for Warning Time Tests 30 8 Illustration of Scenarios Used for Nuisance Alert 35 Area...Nuisance Alert Area Analysis of Scenario 3 with a Target 64 Velocity of 480 Knots and SPMB= SPPB =2.8 nmi 12 Nuisance Alert Area Analysis of Scenario 3

Impacts of Combined Cooling, Heating and Power Systems, and Rainwater Harvesting on Water Demand, Carbon Dioxide, and NOx Emissions for Atlanta.

PubMed

James, Jean-Ann; Sung, Sangwoo; Jeong, Hyunju; Broesicke, Osvaldo A; French, Steven P; Li, Duo; Crittenden, John C

2018-01-02

The purpose of this study is to explore the potential water, CO 2 and NO x emission, and cost savings that the deployment of decentralized water and energy technologies within two urban growth scenarios can achieve. We assess the effectiveness of urban growth, technological, and political strategies to reduce these burdens in the 13-county Atlanta metropolitan region. The urban growth between 2005 and 2030 was modeled for a business as usual (BAU) scenario and a more compact growth (MCG) scenario. We considered combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) systems using microturbines for our decentralized energy technology and rooftop rainwater harvesting and low flow fixtures for the decentralized water technologies. Decentralized water and energy technologies had more of an impact in reducing the CO 2 and NO x emissions and water withdrawal and consumption than an MCG growth scenario (which does not consider energy for transit). Decentralized energy can reduce the CO 2 and NO x emissions by 8% and 63%, respectively. Decentralized energy and water technologies can reduce the water withdrawal and consumption in the MCG scenario by 49% and 50% respectively. Installing CCHP systems on both the existing and new building stocks with a net metering policy could reduce the CO 2 , NO x , and water consumption by 50%, 90%, and 75% respectively.

A detailed comparison of analysis processes for MCC-IMS data in disease classification—Automated methods can replace manual peak annotations

PubMed Central

Horsch, Salome; Kopczynski, Dominik; Kuthe, Elias; Baumbach, Jörg Ingo; Rahmann, Sven

2017-01-01

Motivation Disease classification from molecular measurements typically requires an analysis pipeline from raw noisy measurements to final classification results. Multi capillary column—ion mobility spectrometry (MCC-IMS) is a promising technology for the detection of volatile organic compounds in the air of exhaled breath. From raw measurements, the peak regions representing the compounds have to be identified, quantified, and clustered across different experiments. Currently, several steps of this analysis process require manual intervention of human experts. Our goal is to identify a fully automatic pipeline that yields competitive disease classification results compared to an established but subjective and tedious semi-manual process. Method We combine a large number of modern methods for peak detection, peak clustering, and multivariate classification into analysis pipelines for raw MCC-IMS data. We evaluate all combinations on three different real datasets in an unbiased cross-validation setting. We determine which specific algorithmic combinations lead to high AUC values in disease classifications across the different medical application scenarios. Results The best fully automated analysis process achieves even better classification results than the established manual process. The best algorithms for the three analysis steps are (i) SGLTR (Savitzky-Golay Laplace-operator filter thresholding regions) and LM (Local Maxima) for automated peak identification, (ii) EM clustering (Expectation Maximization) and DBSCAN (Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise) for the clustering step and (iii) RF (Random Forest) for multivariate classification. Thus, automated methods can replace the manual steps in the analysis process to enable an unbiased high throughput use of the technology. PMID:28910313

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process-oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized as meaningful mostly (or only) in the social context in which they were developed. It should be noted that those seeking to understand the functions, implications and utility of scenarios can approach analysis of scenarios and their impacts from either perspective—focusing attention on product outcomes and influence or assessing procedural and contextual dynamics and implications. Papers in this issue examine various aspects of scenario products, scenario processes and their interactions, with specific reference to global environmental change scenarios. Hulme and Dessai (2008) use the product-process distinction as a starting point for developing a framework to evaluate the success of scenario exercises. They identify 'prediction success', 'decision success' and 'learning success' as three evaluation metrics for scenarios, with the first two most relevant to scenario products and the last emphasizing procedural aspects of scenarios. They suggest that viewing scenarios primarily as products implies examining how closely actual outcomes have matched envisioned outcomes, while viewing them primarily as processes suggests evaluating the extent to which scenarios engaged participants and enabled their learning. O'Neill and Nakicenovic (2008) focus on Hulme and Dessai's evaluation metric, learning. Based on a review of six scenario/assessment exercises, they ask if and how scenario products have incorporated comparative assessments of results in order to enable cumulative learning across scenario efforts. The authors conclude that, although participating modelling teams have benefited greatly from the process of scenario activities and applied that learning to other scenario exercises in which they engage, learning from comparative assessments of scenario products has been rather limited; the latter due to the limited time and resources invested in comparative analysis. Pitcher (2009) speaks to a similar audience, namely the emissions scenario communities that are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. His focus is primarily on a set of concerns that need to be addressed if the new set of socio-economic and emissions scenario products are to adequately support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research. Pitcher flags issues associated with assessment and measurement of economic growth, challenges associated with downscaling long-term, global scenarios to finer geographic and time scales, and possible ways to grapple with probability and uncertainty in scenario analyses. Garb et al (2008) shift focus to the process aspects of scenarios, focusing on how scenarios simultaneously shape and embed their social contexts. They outline and give examples from a research agenda, drawing on concepts and methods from sociology, political science, and science and technology studies, aimed at redressing the growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the quantitative components of scenarios on the one hand, and the continued simplicity of our understandings of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled on the other. Focusing on the treatment of equity concerns in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Baer (2009) offers a concrete example of how particular social assumptions and definitions of equity are built into scenarios which then create particular worldviews about rights and responsibilities. Baer argues that incorporating distributions of income within—and not only between—countries in quantitative scenario exercises makes visible questions regarding the assignment of rights and the distribution of costs and benefits; such equity considerations, he argues, are central to engendering the cooperation necessary to address the climate crisis. For Parson (2008), the product-process distinction serves to highlight the unique characteristics and challenges of scenarios for global environmental change, including their use in large-scale official assessments, basis in biophysical modelling, weak connections to decision-makers, and roles as sites of public controversy. Parson argues that these characteristics of global environmental change scenarios prohibit process-oriented approaches, which rely on pre-identifying intended users and engaging them in the scenario development process. Instead, he proposes ways in which scenario products can be enhanced to support use by multiple, non-participant user communities. Wilkinson and Eidinow (2008) reach a different conclusion. They too identify the particular challenges of grappling with global environmental change. They examine approaches to past scenario efforts and categorize them into two groups that map loosely onto the product-process distinction: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric' approaches. They propose that progress in global environmental issues can best be made through a new, third type of approach ('reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based') that would combine elements of problem- and actor-focused approaches, creating scenario processes that can simultaneously support longer-term thinking as well as more immediate actions. Collectively, the papers in this issue range widely across issues associated with contemporary scenario processes and products. We can discern in them the outlines of an important set of suggestions for improving scenario development in the future, including, among others, the following: Focus scenario exercises on more specific questions so that results from multiple models can be more illuminating (O'Neill and Nakicenovic; Garb et al 2008). Enhance scenario transparency so as to enable extensions by users, rather than further expanding representation in global scenarios themselves (Parson 2008). Incorporate relatively simple measures (such as sub-national disaggregation of income distributions and climate change impacts) in order to boost the equity sensitivity of scenarios (Baer 2009). Recognize topics where social science inputs are becoming important for improving modelling and model relevance, such as providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, or developing measures of well-being which are independent of income levels, and include in global environmental scenario teams more representatives of social science professionals (Pitcher 2009; Garb et al 2008). Invest greater resources in assessing scenario results, and in understanding and overcoming the barriers to carrying out such assessment (Hulme and Dessai 2008; O'Neill and Nakicenovic, 2008). Disaggregate the variety of global change decision makers targeted as audiences for scenarios (Parson 2008; Garb et al 2008). Develop an additional 'reflective interventionist' scenarios approach that involves different epistemologies for active learning in the public interest (Wilkinson and Eidinow 2008). Draw on the extensive toolkit of social science research methods to analyze the social work of scenarios (Garb et al 2008). Create new institutions and scenario activities that can adapt and extend global scenarios to specific, often local or regional decision contexts (Parson 2008). Create fora in which scenario practitioners, modellers, decision-makers, and social scientists of various kinds can discuss the process of scenario construction and use (Garb et al 2008). We do not mean to imply a consensus among the participants in the Brown University workshop or of contributors to this collection of papers. At the same time, we believe that these and other insights and suggestions from these contributions do have a certain coherence, and collectively point to a deepening and reinvigoration of the environmental scenario-modelling enterprise—an enterprise now facing environmental change processes that are emerging as some of the most pressing challenges of our time. Acknowledgements We would like to thank the Global Environment Program at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University and the US Environmental Protection Agency for financially supporting publication of this focus issue. Focus on Global Environmental Scenarios Contents Predicting, deciding, learning: can one evaluate the 'success' of national climate scenarios? Mike Hulme and Suraje Dessai Learning from global emissions scenarios Brian C O'Neill and Nebojsa Nakicenovic Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling Yaakov Garb, Simone Pulver and Stacy D VanDeveer Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges E A Parson Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology Angela Wilkinson and Esther Eidinow Notes Note1 The workshop was held in March 2007, jointly sponsored by the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, and the US National Intelligence Council. See http://www.watsoninstitute.org/ge/scenarios/ for more information.

Many multicenter trials had few events per center, requiring analysis via random-effects models or GEEs.

PubMed

Kahan, Brennan C; Harhay, Michael O

2015-12-01

Adjustment for center in multicenter trials is recommended when there are between-center differences or when randomization has been stratified by center. However, common methods of analysis (such as fixed-effects, Mantel-Haenszel, or stratified Cox models) often require a large number of patients or events per center to perform well. We reviewed 206 multicenter randomized trials published in four general medical journals to assess the average number of patients and events per center and determine whether appropriate methods of analysis were used in trials with few patients or events per center. The median number of events per center/treatment arm combination for trials using a binary or survival outcome was 3 (interquartile range, 1-10). Sixteen percent of trials had less than 1 event per center/treatment combination, 50% fewer than 3, and 63% fewer than 5. Of the trials which adjusted for center using a method of analysis which requires a large number of events per center, 6% had less than 1 event per center-treatment combination, 25% fewer than 3, and 50% fewer than 5. Methods of analysis that allow for few events per center, such as random-effects models or generalized estimating equations (GEEs), were rarely used. Many multicenter trials contain few events per center. Adjustment for center using random-effects models or GEE with model-based (non-robust) standard errors may be beneficial in these scenarios. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Potential Commercial Development Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Creech, Stephen D.; Rogacki, John R. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The presentation will discuss potential commercial development scenarios for a Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle. The analysis of potential scenarios will include commercial rates of return, government return on investment, and market considerations. The presentation will include policy considerations in addition to analysis of Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle economics. The data discussed is being developed as a part of NASA's Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Program, for consideration as potential scenarios for enabling a next generation system. Material will include potential scenarios not previously considered by NASA or presented at other conferences. Candidate paper has not been presented at a previous meeting, and conference attendance of the author has been approved by NASA.

Benefit-Cost Analysis of Integrated Paratransit Systems : Volume 3. Scenario Analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-09-01

This is the third volume of a six-volume report documenting the results of a study entitled "Benefit-Cost Analysis of Integrated Paratransit Systems." This volume provides detailed results of a series of scenario analyses designed to determine the im...

Combining Learning and Assessment in Assessment-Based Gaming Environments: A Case Study from a New York City School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zapata-Rivera, Diego; VanWinkle, Waverely; Doyle, Bryan; Buteux, Alyssa; Bauer, Malcolm

2009-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to propose and demonstrate an evidence-based scenario design framework for assessment-based computer games. Design/methodology/approach: The evidence-based scenario design framework is presented and demonstrated by using BELLA, a new assessment-based gaming environment aimed at supporting student learning of…

Sourcing of Steam and Electricity for Carbon Capture Retrofits.

PubMed

Supekar, Sarang D; Skerlos, Steven J

2017-11-07

This paper compares different steam and electricity sources for carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) retrofits of pulverized coal (PC) and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants. Analytical expressions for the thermal efficiency of these power plants are derived under 16 different CCS retrofit scenarios for the purpose of illustrating their environmental and economic characteristics. The scenarios emerge from combinations of steam and electricity sources, fuel used in each source, steam generation equipment and process details, and the extent of CO 2 capture. Comparing these scenarios reveals distinct trade-offs between thermal efficiency, net power output, levelized cost, profit, and net CO 2 reduction. Despite causing the highest loss in useful power output, bleeding steam and extracting electric power from the main power plant to meet the CCS plant's electricity and steam demand maximizes plant efficiency and profit while minimizing emissions and levelized cost when wholesale electricity prices are below 4.5 and 5.2 US¢/kWh for PC-CCS and NGCC-CCS plants, respectively. At prices higher than these higher profits for operating CCS retrofits can be obtained by meeting 100% of the CCS plant's electric power demand using an auxiliary natural gas turbine-based combined heat and power plant.

Compounding Impacts of Climate Change and Increased Human Water Withdrawal on Urmia Lake Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alborzi, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Azaranfar, A.; Mallakpour, I.; Ashraf, B.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

In recent decades, climate change and increase in human water withdrawal, combined, have caused ecological degradation in several terminal lakes worldwide. Among them, the shallow and hyper-saline Urmia Lake in Iran has experienced about 6 meters drawdown in lake level and 80% reduction in surface area. Here, we assess the imposed stress on Urmia Basin's water availability and Lake's ecological condition in response to coupled climate change and human-induced water withdrawal. A generalized river basin decision support system model consisting network flow is developed to simulate the basin-lake interactions under a wide range of scenarios. This model explicitly includes water management infrastructure, reservoirs, and irrigation and municipal water use. Studied scenarios represent a wide range of historic climate and water use scenarios including a historical baseline, future increase in water demand, and also improved water efficiency. In this presentation, we show the lake's water level, as a measure of lake's ecological health, under the compounding effects of the climate condition (top-down) and water use (bottom-up) scenarios. This method illustrates what combinations lead to failure in meeting the lake's ecological level.

Naturalness of MSSM dark matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabrera, María Eugenia; Casas, J. Alberto; Delgado, Antonio; Robles, Sandra; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz

2016-08-01

There exists a vast literature examining the electroweak (EW) fine-tuning problem in supersymmetric scenarios, but little concerned with the dark matter (DM) one, which should be combined with the former. In this paper, we study this problem in an, as much as possible, exhaustive and rigorous way. We have considered the MSSM framework, assuming that the LSP is the lightest neutralino, χ 1 0 , and exploring the various possibilities for the mass and composition of χ 1 0 , as well as different mechanisms for annihilation of the DM particles in the early Universe (well-tempered neutralinos, funnels and co-annihilation scenarios). We also present a discussion about the statistical meaning of the fine-tuning and how it should be computed for the DM abundance, and combined with the EW fine-tuning. The results are very robust and model-independent and favour some scenarios (like the h-funnel when {M}_{χ_1^0} is not too close to m h /2) with respect to others (such as the pure wino case). These features should be taken into account when one explores "natural SUSY" scenarios and their possible signatures at the LHC and in DM detection experiments.

Environmental and economic analysis of power generation in a thermophilic biogas plant.

PubMed

Ruiz, D; San Miguel, G; Corona, B; Gaitero, A; Domínguez, A

2018-08-15

This paper investigates the environmental and economic performance of the power production from biogas using Life Cycle Assessment, Life Cycle Costing and Cost Benefit Analysis methodologies. The analysis is based on a commercial thermophilic biogas plant located in Spain where is installed a Combined Heat and Power system that produces electricity that is sold to the grid. Power generation has been assumed as the only function of the biogas system, expanding the system boundaries to include the additional function related to the end-of-life management of the biowastes. Thus environmental burdens from the conventional management of residues were calculated separately and subtracted. The base scenario involves using agri-food waste, sewage sludge and pig/cow manure as substrates. This situation is compared against an alternative scenario where the production of synthetic fertilizer is surrogated by the digestate. The results have shown that the most impacting activities in all impacts categories of power production are primarily attributable to the operation and maintenance of the biogas plant except for water resource depletion and climate change. The avoided emissions associated with the conventional management of pig/cow manure more than offset GHG emissions of the biogas system resulting in a negative impact value of -73.9gCO 2 eq/kWh in the base case scenario. The normalized results show that local impact categories such as primarily human toxicity, fresh water ecotoxicity and particulate matter are the most significantly affected by the biogas system while global impact categories as climate change and ozone depletion are less severely affected. The operation and maintenance phase is also shown to be the largest contributor after the life cycle cost analysis, followed by the construction and dismantling of the biogas plant and the profitability of the project is primarily related to the income obtained from the management of the biowastes used as substrates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Blended learning in ethics education: a survey of nursing students.

PubMed

Hsu, Li-Ling

2011-05-01

Nurses are experiencing new ethical issues as a result of global developments and changes in health care. With health care becoming increasingly sophisticated, and countries facing challenges of graying population, ethical issues involved in health care are bound to expand in quantity and in depth. Blended learning rather as a combination of multiple delivery media designed to promote meaningful learning. Specifically, this study was focused on two questions: (1) the students' satisfaction and attitudes as members of a scenario-based learning process in a blended learning environment; (2) the relationship between students' satisfaction ratings of nursing ethics course and their attitudes in the blended learning environment. In total, 99 senior undergraduate nursing students currently studying at a public nursing college in Taiwan were invited to participate in this study. A cross-sectional survey design was adopted in this study. The participants were asked to fill out two Likert-scale questionnaire surveys: CAAS (Case Analysis Attitude Scale), and BLSS (Blended Learning Satisfaction Scale). The results showed what students felt about their blended learning experiences - mostly items ranged from 3.27-3.76 (the highest score is 5). Another self-assessment of scenario analysis instrument revealed the mean scores ranged from 2.87-4.19. Nearly 57.8% of the participants rated the course 'extremely helpful' or 'very helpful.' This study showed statistically significant correlations (r=0.43) between students' satisfaction with blended learning and case analysis attitudes. In addition, results testified to a potential of the blended learning model proposed in this study to bridge the gap between students and instructors and the one between students and their peers, which are typical of blended learning, and to create meaningful learning by employing blended pedagogical consideration in the course design. The use of scenario instruction enables students to develop critical analysis and problem solving skills through active learning and social exchange of ideas. © The Author(s) 2011

Probing flavor models with ^{ {76}}Ge-based experiments on neutrinoless double-β decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agostini, Matteo; Merle, Alexander; Zuber, Kai

2016-04-01

The physics impact of a staged approach for double-β decay experiments based on ^{ {76}}Ge is studied. The scenario considered relies on realistic time schedules envisioned by the Gerda and the Majorana collaborations, which are jointly working towards the realization of a future larger scale ^{ {76}}Ge experiment. Intermediate stages of the experiments are conceived to perform quasi background-free measurements, and different data sets can be reliably combined to maximize the physics outcome. The sensitivity for such a global analysis is presented, with focus on how neutrino flavor models can be probed already with preliminary phases of the experiments. The synergy between theory and experiment yields strong benefits for both sides: the model predictions can be used to sensibly plan the experimental stages, and results from intermediate stages can be used to constrain whole groups of theoretical scenarios. This strategy clearly generates added value to the experimental efforts, while at the same time it allows to achieve valuable physics results as early as possible.

Integrating multi-criteria evaluation techniques with geographic information systems for landfill site selection: a case study using ordered weighted average.

PubMed

Gorsevski, Pece V; Donevska, Katerina R; Mitrovski, Cvetko D; Frizado, Joseph P

2012-02-01

This paper presents a GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis approach for evaluating the suitability for landfill site selection in the Polog Region, Macedonia. The multi-criteria decision framework considers environmental and economic factors which are standardized by fuzzy membership functions and combined by integration of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and ordered weighted average (OWA) techniques. The AHP is used for the elicitation of attribute weights while the OWA operator function is used to generate a wide range of decision alternatives for addressing uncertainty associated with interaction between multiple criteria. The usefulness of the approach is illustrated by different OWA scenarios that report landfill suitability on a scale between 0 and 1. The OWA scenarios are intended to quantify the level of risk taking (i.e., optimistic, pessimistic, and neutral) and to facilitate a better understanding of patterns that emerge from decision alternatives involved in the decision making process. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal scheduling and its Lyapunov stability for advanced load-following energy plants with CO 2 capture

DOE PAGES

Bankole, Temitayo; Jones, Dustin; Bhattacharyya, Debangsu; ...

2017-11-03

In this study, a two-level control methodology consisting of an upper-level scheduler and a lower-level supervisory controller is proposed for an advanced load-following energy plant with CO 2 capture. With the use of an economic objective function that considers fluctuation in electricity demand and price at the upper level, optimal scheduling of energy plant electricity production and carbon capture with respect to several carbon tax scenarios is implemented. The optimal operational profiles are then passed down to corresponding lower-level supervisory controllers designed using a methodological approach that balances control complexity with performance. Finally, it is shown how optimal carbon capturemore » and electricity production rate profiles for an energy plant such as the integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant are affected by electricity demand and price fluctuations under different carbon tax scenarios. As a result, the paper also presents a Lyapunov stability analysis of the proposed scheme.« less

Search for the electroweak production of supersymmetric particles in $$\\sqrt{s}$$ = 8 TeV $pp$ collisions with the ATLAS detector

DOE PAGES

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.; ...

2016-03-04

In this study, the ATLAS experiment has performed extensive searches for the electroweak production of charginos, neutralinos, and staus. This article summarizes and extends the search for electroweak supersymmetry with new analyses targeting scenarios not covered by previously published searches. New searches use vector-boson fusion production, initial-state radiation jets, and low-momentum lepton final states, as well as multivariate analysis techniques to improve the sensitivity to scenarios with small mass splittings and low-production cross sections. Results are based on 20 fb -1 of proton-proton collision data at √s = 8 TeV recorded with the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider.more » No significant excess beyond Standard Model expectations is observed. The new and existing searches are combined and interpreted in terms of 95% confidence-level exclusion limits in simplified models, where a single production process and decay mode is assumed, as well as within phenomenological supersymmetric models.« less

Evaluating an education/training module to foster knowledge of cockpit weather technology.

PubMed

Cobbett, Erin A; Blickensderfer, Elizabeth L; Lanicci, John

2014-10-01

Previous research has indicated that general aviation (GA) pilots may use the sophisticated meteorological information available to them via a variety of Next-Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) based weather products in a manner that actually decreases flight safety. The current study examined an education/training method designed to enable GA pilots to use NEXRAD-based products effectively in convective weather situations. The training method was lecture combined with paper-based scenario exercises. A multivariate analysis of variance revealed that subjects in the training condition performed significantly better than did subjects in the control condition on several knowledge and attitude measures. Subjects in the training condition improved from a mean score of 66% to 80% on the radar-knowledge test and from 62% to 75% on the scenario-knowledge test. Although additional research is needed, these results demonstrated that pilots can benefit from a well-designed education/training program involving specific areas of aviation weather-related knowledge.

Optimal scheduling and its Lyapunov stability for advanced load-following energy plants with CO 2 capture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bankole, Temitayo; Jones, Dustin; Bhattacharyya, Debangsu

In this study, a two-level control methodology consisting of an upper-level scheduler and a lower-level supervisory controller is proposed for an advanced load-following energy plant with CO 2 capture. With the use of an economic objective function that considers fluctuation in electricity demand and price at the upper level, optimal scheduling of energy plant electricity production and carbon capture with respect to several carbon tax scenarios is implemented. The optimal operational profiles are then passed down to corresponding lower-level supervisory controllers designed using a methodological approach that balances control complexity with performance. Finally, it is shown how optimal carbon capturemore » and electricity production rate profiles for an energy plant such as the integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant are affected by electricity demand and price fluctuations under different carbon tax scenarios. As a result, the paper also presents a Lyapunov stability analysis of the proposed scheme.« less

Climate and human intervention effects on future fire activity and consequences for air pollution across the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Val Martin, M.; Pierce, J. R.; Heald, C. L.; Li, F.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Tilmes, S.; Vitt, F.

2016-12-01

Emissions of aerosols and gases from fires have been shown to adversely affect air quality across the world. Fire activity is strongly related to climate and anthropogenic activities. Current fire projections for the 21st century seem very uncertain, ranging from increasing to declining depending on the climate, land cover change and population growth scenarios used. Here we present an analysis of the changes in future wildfire activity and consequences on air quality, with focus on PM2.5 and surface O3 over regions vulnerable to fire. We use the global Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a process-based fire model to simulate emissions from agriculture, peatland, deforestation and landscape fires for present-day and throughout the current century. We consider two future Representative Concentration Pathways climate scenarios combined with population density changes predicted from Shared Socio-economic Pathways to project climate and demographic effects on fire activity and further consequences for future air quality.

Coupling Matched Molecular Pairs with Machine Learning for Virtual Compound Optimization.

PubMed

Turk, Samo; Merget, Benjamin; Rippmann, Friedrich; Fulle, Simone

2017-12-26

Matched molecular pair (MMP) analyses are widely used in compound optimization projects to gain insights into structure-activity relationships (SAR). The analysis is traditionally done via statistical methods but can also be employed together with machine learning (ML) approaches to extrapolate to novel compounds. The here introduced MMP/ML method combines a fragment-based MMP implementation with different machine learning methods to obtain automated SAR decomposition and prediction. To test the prediction capabilities and model transferability, two different compound optimization scenarios were designed: (1) "new fragments" which occurs when exploring new fragments for a defined compound series and (2) "new static core and transformations" which resembles for instance the identification of a new compound series. Very good results were achieved by all employed machine learning methods especially for the new fragments case, but overall deep neural network models performed best, allowing reliable predictions also for the new static core and transformations scenario, where comprehensive SAR knowledge of the compound series is missing. Furthermore, we show that models trained on all available data have a higher generalizability compared to models trained on focused series and can extend beyond chemical space covered in the training data. Thus, coupling MMP with deep neural networks provides a promising approach to make high quality predictions on various data sets and in different compound optimization scenarios.

An Integrated Environmental Assessment of Green and Gray Infrastructure Strategies for Robust Decision Making.

PubMed

Casal-Campos, Arturo; Fu, Guangtao; Butler, David; Moore, Andrew

2015-07-21

The robustness of a range of watershed-scale "green" and "gray" drainage strategies in the future is explored through comprehensive modeling of a fully integrated urban wastewater system case. Four socio-economic future scenarios, defined by parameters affecting the environmental performance of the system, are proposed to account for the uncertain variability of conditions in the year 2050. A regret-based approach is applied to assess the relative performance of strategies in multiple impact categories (environmental, economic, and social) as well as to evaluate their robustness across future scenarios. The concept of regret proves useful in identifying performance trade-offs and recognizing states of the world most critical to decisions. The study highlights the robustness of green strategies (particularly rain gardens, resulting in half the regret of most options) over end-of-pipe gray alternatives (surface water separation or sewer and storage rehabilitation), which may be costly (on average, 25% of the total regret of these options) and tend to focus on sewer flooding and CSO alleviation while compromising on downstream system performance (this accounts for around 50% of their total regret). Trade-offs and scenario regrets observed in the analysis suggest that the combination of green and gray strategies may still offer further potential for robustness.

The eco-evolutionary responses of a generalist consumer to resource competition.

PubMed

Abrams, Peter A

2012-10-01

This article explores the combined evolutionary and ecological responses of resource uptake abilities in a generalist consumer to exploitative competition for one resource using a simple 2-resource model. It compares the sizes of ecologically and evolutionarily caused changes in population densities in cases where the original consumer has a strong or a weak trade-off in its abilities to consume the two resources. The analysis also compares the responses of the original species to competition when the competitor's population size is or is not limited by the shared resource. Although divergence in resource use traits in the resident generalist consumer is expected under all scenarios when resources are substitutable, the changes in population densities of the resources and resident consumer frequently differ between scenarios. The population of the original consumer often decreases as a result of its own adaptive divergence, and this decrease is often much greater than the initial ecological decrease. If the evolving consumer has a strong trade-off, the overlapped resource increases in equilibrium population density in response to being consumed by a generalist competitor. Some of these predictions differ qualitatively in alternative scenarios involving sustained variation in population densities or nutritionally essential resources. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Closing in on the chargino contribution to the muon g -2 in the MSSM: Current LHC constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagiwara, Kaoru; Ma, Kai; Mukhopadhyay, Satyanarayan

2018-03-01

We revisit the current LHC constraints on the electroweak-ino sector parameters in the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) that are relevant to explaining the (g -2 )μ anomaly via the dominant chargino and muon sneutrino loop. Since the LHC bounds on electroweak-inos become weaker if they decay via an intermediate stau or a tau sneutrino instead of the first two generation sleptons, we perform a detailed analysis of the scenario with a bino as the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) and a light stau as the next-to-lightest one (NLSP). Even in this scenario, the chargino sector parameters in the MSSM that can account for the (g -2 )μ anomaly within 1 σ are already found to be significantly constrained by the 8 TeV LHC and the available subset of the 13 TeV LHC limits. We also estimate the current LHC exclusions in the left-smuon (and/or left-selectron) NLSP scenario from multilepton searches, and further combine the constraints from the multitau and multilepton channels for a mass spectrum in which all three generations of sleptons are lighter than the chargino. In the latter two cases, small corners of the 1 σ favored region for (g -2 )μ are still allowed at present.

Quantifying Anthropogenic Stress on Groundwater Resources.

PubMed

Ashraf, Batool; AghaKouchak, Amir; Alizadeh, Amin; Mousavi Baygi, Mohammad; R Moftakhari, Hamed; Mirchi, Ali; Anjileli, Hassan; Madani, Kaveh

2017-10-10

This study explores a general framework for quantifying anthropogenic influences on groundwater budget based on normalized human outflow (h out ) and inflow (h in ). The framework is useful for sustainability assessment of groundwater systems and allows investigating the effects of different human water abstraction scenarios on the overall aquifer regime (e.g., depleted, natural flow-dominated, and human flow-dominated). We apply this approach to selected regions in the USA, Germany and Iran to evaluate the current aquifer regime. We subsequently present two scenarios of changes in human water withdrawals and return flow to the system (individually and combined). Results show that approximately one-third of the selected aquifers in the USA, and half of the selected aquifers in Iran are dominated by human activities, while the selected aquifers in Germany are natural flow-dominated. The scenario analysis results also show that reduced human withdrawals could help with regime change in some aquifers. For instance, in two of the selected USA aquifers, a decrease in anthropogenic influences by ~20% may change the condition of depleted regime to natural flow-dominated regime. We specifically highlight a trending threat to the sustainability of groundwater in northwest Iran and California, and the need for more careful assessment and monitoring practices as well as strict regulations to mitigate the negative impacts of groundwater overexploitation.

Integrated Testing, Simulation and Analysis of Electric Drive Options for Medium-Duty Parcel Delivery Vehicles: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramroth, L. A.; Gonder, J.; Brooker, A.

2012-09-01

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory verified diesel-conventional and diesel-hybrid parcel delivery vehicle models to evaluate petroleum reduction and cost implications of plug-in hybrid gasoline and diesel variants. These variants are run on a field-data-derived design matrix to analyze the effects of drive cycle, distance, battery replacements, battery capacity, and motor power on fuel consumption and lifetime cost. Two cost scenarios using fuel prices corresponding to forecasted highs for 2011 and 2030 and battery costs per kilowatt-hour representing current and long-term targets compare plug-in hybrid lifetime costs with diesel conventional lifetime costs. Under a future cost scenario of $100/kWh battery energymore » and $5/gal fuel, plug-in hybrids are cost effective. Assuming a current cost of $700/kWh and $3/gal fuel, they rarely recoup the additional motor and battery cost. The results highlight the importance of understanding the application's drive cycle, daily driving distance, and kinetic intensity. For instances in the current-cost scenario where the additional plug-in hybrid cost is regained in fuel savings, the combination of kinetic intensity and daily distance travelled does not coincide with the usage patterns observed in the field data. If the usage patterns were adjusted, the hybrids could become cost effective.« less

Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of a small watershed using semi-distributed model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, Brij Kishor; Gosain, A. K.; Paul, George; Khare, Deepak

2017-07-01

This study is an attempt to quantify the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Armur watershed in Godavari river basin, India. A GIS-based semi-distributed hydrological model, soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been employed to estimate the water balance components on the basis of unique combinations of slope, soil and land cover classes for the base line (1961-1990) and future climate scenarios (2071-2100). Sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed to identify the most critical parameters of the watershed. Average monthly calibration (1987-1994) and validation (1995-2000) have been performed using the observed discharge data. Coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the model performance. Calibrated SWAT setup has been used to evaluate the changes in water balance components of future projection over the study area. HadRM3, a regional climatic data, have been used as input of the hydrological model for climate change impact studies. In results, it was found that changes in average annual temperature (+3.25 °C), average annual rainfall (+28 %), evapotranspiration (28 %) and water yield (49 %) increased for GHG scenarios with respect to the base line scenario.

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

Scenario analysis of the future of medicines.

PubMed Central

Leufkens, H.; Haaijer-Ruskamp, F.; Bakker, A.; Dukes, G.

1994-01-01

Planning future policy for medicines poses difficult problems. The main players in the drug business have their own views as to how the world around them functions and how the future of medicines should be shaped. In this paper we show how a scenario analysis can provide a powerful teaching device to readjust peoples' preconceptions. Scenarios are plausible, not probable or preferable, portraits of alternative futures. A series of four of alternative scenarios were constructed: "sobriety in sufficiency," "risk avoidance," "technology on demand," and "free market unfettered." Each scenario was drawn as a narrative, documented quantitatively wherever possible, that described the world as it might be if particular trends were to dominate development. The medical community and health policy markers may use scenarios to take a long term view in order to be prepared adequately for the future. PMID:7987110

Regional flow in a complex coastal aquifer system: Combining voxel geological modelling with regularized calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Rena; Engesgaard, Peter; Høyer, Anne-Sophie; Jørgensen, Flemming; Vignoli, Giulio; Sonnenborg, Torben O.

2018-07-01

Low-lying coastal regions are often highly populated, constitute sensitive habitats and are at the same time exposed to challenging hydrological environments due to surface flooding from storm events and saltwater intrusion, which both may affect drinking water supply from shallow and deeper aquifers. Near the Wadden Sea at the border of Southern Denmark and Northern Germany, the hydraulic system (connecting groundwater, river water, and the sea) was altered over centuries (until the 19th century) by e.g. the construction of dikes and drains to prevent flooding and allow agricultural use. Today, massive saltwater intrusions extend up to 20 km inland. In order to understand the regional flow, a methodological approach was developed that combined: (1) a highly-resolved voxel geological model, (2) a ∼1 million node groundwater model with 46 hydrofacies coupled to rivers, drains and the sea, (3) Tikhonov regularization calibration using hydraulic heads and average stream discharges as targets and (4) parameter uncertainty analysis. It is relatively new to use voxel models for constructing geological models that often have been simplified to stacked, pseudo-3D layer geology. The study is therefore one of the first to combine a voxel geological model with state-of-the-art flow calibration techniques. The results show that voxel geological modelling, where lithofacies information are transferred to each volumetric element, is a useful method to preserve 3D geological heterogeneity on a local scale, which is important when distinct geological features such as buried valleys are abundant. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that simpler geological models and simpler calibration methods do not perform as well. The proposed approach is applicable to many other systems, because it combines advanced and flexible geological modelling and flow calibration techniques. This has led to new insights in the regional flow patterns and especially about water cycling in the marsh area near the coast based on the ability to define six predictive scenarios from the linear analysis of parameter uncertainty. The results show that the coastal system near the Danish-German border is mainly controlled by flow in the two aquifers separated by a thick clay layer, and several deep high-permeable buried valleys that connect the sea with the interior and the two aquifers. The drained marsh area acts like a huge regional sink limiting submarine groundwater discharge. With respect to water balance, the greatest sensitivity to parameter uncertainty was observed in the drained marsh area, where some scenarios showed increased flow of sea water into the interior and increased drainage. We speculate that the massive salt water intrusion may be caused by a combination of the preferential pathways provided by the buried valleys, the marsh drainage and relatively high hydraulic conductivities in the two main aquifers as described by one of the scenarios. This is currently under investigation by using a salt water transport model.

Investment appraisal of technology innovations on dairy farm electricity consumption.

PubMed

Upton, J; Murphy, M; De Boer, I J M; Groot Koerkamp, P W G; Berentsen, P B M; Shalloo, L

2015-02-01

The aim of this study was to conduct an investment appraisal for milk-cooling, water-heating, and milk-harvesting technologies on a range of farm sizes in 2 different electricity-pricing environments. This was achieved by using a model for electricity consumption on dairy farms. The model simulated the effect of 6 technology investment scenarios on the electricity consumption and electricity costs of the 3 largest electricity-consuming systems within the dairy farm (i.e., milk-cooling, water-heating, and milking machine systems). The technology investment scenarios were direct expansion milk-cooling, ice bank milk-cooling, milk precooling, solar water-heating, and variable speed drive vacuum pump-milking systems. A dairy farm profitability calculator was combined with the electricity consumption model to assess the effect of each investment scenario on the total discounted net income over a 10-yr period subsequent to the investment taking place. Included in the calculation were the initial investments, which were depreciated to zero over the 10-yr period. The return on additional investment for 5 investment scenarios compared with a base scenario was computed as the investment appraisal metric. The results of this study showed that the highest return on investment figures were realized by using a direct expansion milk-cooling system with precooling of milk to 15°C with water before milk entry to the storage tank, heating water with an electrical water-heating system, and using standard vacuum pump control on the milking system. Return on investment figures did not exceed the suggested hurdle rate of 10% for any of the ice bank scenarios, making the ice bank system reliant on a grant aid framework to reduce the initial capital investment and improve the return on investment. The solar water-heating and variable speed drive vacuum pump scenarios failed to produce positive return on investment figures on any of the 3 farm sizes considered on either the day and night tariff or the flat tariff, even when the technology costs were reduced by 40% in a sensitivity analysis of technology costs. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Structured analysis and modeling of complex systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strome, David R.; Dalrymple, Mathieu A.

1992-01-01

The Aircrew Evaluation Sustained Operations Performance (AESOP) facility at Brooks AFB, Texas, combines the realism of an operational environment with the control of a research laboratory. In recent studies we collected extensive data from the Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) Weapons Directors subjected to high and low workload Defensive Counter Air Scenarios. A critical and complex task in this environment involves committing a friendly fighter against a hostile fighter. Structured Analysis and Design techniques and computer modeling systems were applied to this task as tools for analyzing subject performance and workload. This technology is being transferred to the Man-Systems Division of NASA Johnson Space Center for application to complex mission related tasks, such as manipulating the Shuttle grappler arm.

Effects of river geomorphology on the spatial importance of aquatic energy flows into terrestrial food webs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muehlbauer, J. D.; Doyle, M. W.; Tockner, K.

2011-12-01

This presentation will present the results of a meta-analysis on river-floodplain carbon/energy subsidies. This analysis combines data from the existing body of literature (ca. 100 studies) to determine a "stream signature:" a regression equation that fits the decline in aquatic-derived energy in terrestrial predator food webs as a function of distance from the river. The nature of this decay curve and its implications for river/riparian ecological dynamics will be desrcibed. Variation in this metric due to the influence of stream order, river bank characteristics, and channel geomorphology will be assessed. In addition, the implications of variation in the stream signature for terrestrial aquatic food webs under different geomorphic and anthropogenic scenarios will be discussed.

Continuous thermal hydrolysis and anaerobic digestion of sludge. Energy integration study.

PubMed

Pérez-Elvira, S I; Fdz-Polanco, F

2012-01-01

Experimental data obtained from the operation in a pilot plant are used to perform mass and energy balances to a global process combining units of thermal hydrolysis (TH) of secondary sludge, anaerobic digestion (AD) of hydrolysed secondary sludge together with fresh primary sludge, and cogeneration from biogas by using a gas engine in which the biogas produces electricity and heat from the exhaust gases. Three scenarios were compared, corresponding to the three digesters operated: C (conventional AD, 17 days residence time), B (combined TH + AD, same time), and A (TH + AD at half residence time). The biogas production of digesters B and A was 33 and 24% better, respectively when compared with C. In the case of the combined TH + AD process (scenarios A and B), the key factors in the energy balance were the recovery of heat from hot streams, and the concentration of sludge. The results of the balances showed that for 8% DS concentration of the secondary sludge tested in the pilot plant, the process can be energetically self-sufficient, but a fraction of the biogas must by-pass the gas engine to be directly burned. From an economic point of view, scenario B is more profitable in terms of green energy and higher waste removal, while scenario A reduces the digester volume required by a half. Considering a population of 100,000 inhabitants, the economic benefit is 87,600 €/yr for scenario A and 132,373 €/yr for B. This value can be increased to 223,867 €/yr by increasing the sludge concentration of the feeding to the TH unit to a minimum value that allows use of all the biogas to produce green energy. This concentration is 13% DS, which is still possible from a practical point of view. Additional benefits gained with the combined TH + AD process are the enhancement of the digesters rheology and the possibility of getting Class A biosolids. The integration study presented here set the basis for the scale-up to a demonstration plant.

Mixed oxidizer hybrid propulsion system optimization under uncertainty using applied response surface methodology and Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitehead, James Joshua

The analysis documented herein provides an integrated approach for the conduct of optimization under uncertainty (OUU) using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) techniques coupled with response surface-based methods for characterization of mixture-dependent variables. This novel methodology provides an innovative means of conducting optimization studies under uncertainty in propulsion system design. Analytic inputs are based upon empirical regression rate information obtained from design of experiments (DOE) mixture studies utilizing a mixed oxidizer hybrid rocket concept. Hybrid fuel regression rate was selected as the target response variable for optimization under uncertainty, with maximization of regression rate chosen as the driving objective. Characteristic operational conditions and propellant mixture compositions from experimental efforts conducted during previous foundational work were combined with elemental uncertainty estimates as input variables. Response surfaces for mixture-dependent variables and their associated uncertainty levels were developed using quadratic response equations incorporating single and two-factor interactions. These analysis inputs, response surface equations and associated uncertainty contributions were applied to a probabilistic MCS to develop dispersed regression rates as a function of operational and mixture input conditions within design space. Illustrative case scenarios were developed and assessed using this analytic approach including fully and partially constrained operational condition sets over all of design mixture space. In addition, optimization sets were performed across an operationally representative region in operational space and across all investigated mixture combinations. These scenarios were selected as representative examples relevant to propulsion system optimization, particularly for hybrid and solid rocket platforms. Ternary diagrams, including contour and surface plots, were developed and utilized to aid in visualization. The concept of Expanded-Durov diagrams was also adopted and adapted to this study to aid in visualization of uncertainty bounds. Regions of maximum regression rate and associated uncertainties were determined for each set of case scenarios. Application of response surface methodology coupled with probabilistic-based MCS allowed for flexible and comprehensive interrogation of mixture and operating design space during optimization cases. Analyses were also conducted to assess sensitivity of uncertainty to variations in key elemental uncertainty estimates. The methodology developed during this research provides an innovative optimization tool for future propulsion design efforts.

Developing a top-down land-use management procedure for fish habitat enhancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, Li-Chi; Lin, Yu-Pin; Wu, Chen-Huan

2013-04-01

Land-use change can influence stream ecosystem and alter instream physical, chemical and biological habitat. For example, urbanization usually contributes to increasing sediment loadings to streams and inappropriate agricultural management results in degradation of stream water quality. Watershed model is an effective way to forecast the watershed response to different land-use change scenarios. We developed a top-down approach from the watershed scale to the microscale by combining the habitat model, land-use change model and watershed hydrological model. This approach can assist land-use planner to make optimal decisions with fish habitat enhancement. The study was conducted in Datuan Stream, located in Tamsui District, New Taipei City and the target species is monk goby (Sicyopterus japonicus). The spatially explicit land-use change model, CLUE-s was first applied to project several future land-use scenarios and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was then applied to simulate streamflow for different land-use scenarios. The simulated streamflow were used as input data for simulating river habitat, where Habitat Suitability Analysis is one of the most important processes. The relationship between target species and multiple environmental factors of habitat was first developed using the Habitat suitability index (HSI). In this study, we used fish presence probabilities for each velocity and water depth to establish different HSI functions under 4 flow conditions (slack, riffle, pool and run) using genetic programming (GP). The physical habitat model, River 2D, was then applied to simulate the river section and calculate weighted usable area (WUA). Based on the WUA results for different land-use scenarios, we further evaluated the relationships between WUA and land-use/landscape patterns using a spatial pattern analysis program, Fragstats. The results showed that by using the habitat model for classified flows, the habitat suitability curve which reflects different activities of fish (ex: spawning, preying) is more practical. Moreover, the proposed land-use management procedure can be useful for future land-use planning with fish habitat conservation.

Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

2013-12-01

Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted two metropolitan communities that exhibit differing growth projections and water portfolios; moderate growth with a diverse portfolio versus high growth for a more restrictive portfolio. Results illustrate that both communities exhibited an expanding envelope of possible, future water outcomes with rational water management trajectories. However, a more diverse portfolio resulted in a broad, time-insensitive decision space for management interventions. The reverse was true for the more restrictive water portfolio with high growth projections.

Wearable Sensor-Based Human Activity Recognition Method with Multi-Features Extracted from Hilbert-Huang Transform.

PubMed

Xu, Huile; Liu, Jinyi; Hu, Haibo; Zhang, Yi

2016-12-02

Wearable sensors-based human activity recognition introduces many useful applications and services in health care, rehabilitation training, elderly monitoring and many other areas of human interaction. Existing works in this field mainly focus on recognizing activities by using traditional features extracted from Fourier transform (FT) or wavelet transform (WT). However, these signal processing approaches are suitable for a linear signal but not for a nonlinear signal. In this paper, we investigate the characteristics of the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) for dealing with activity data with properties such as nonlinearity and non-stationarity. A multi-features extraction method based on HHT is then proposed to improve the effect of activity recognition. The extracted multi-features include instantaneous amplitude (IA) and instantaneous frequency (IF) by means of empirical mode decomposition (EMD), as well as instantaneous energy density (IE) and marginal spectrum (MS) derived from Hilbert spectral analysis. Experimental studies are performed to verify the proposed approach by using the PAMAP2 dataset from the University of California, Irvine for wearable sensors-based activity recognition. Moreover, the effect of combining multi-features vs. a single-feature are investigated and discussed in the scenario of a dependent subject. The experimental results show that multi-features combination can further improve the performance measures. Finally, we test the effect of multi-features combination in the scenario of an independent subject. Our experimental results show that we achieve four performance indexes: recall, precision, F-measure, and accuracy to 0.9337, 0.9417, 0.9353, and 0.9377 respectively, which are all better than the achievements of related works.

Wearable Sensor-Based Human Activity Recognition Method with Multi-Features Extracted from Hilbert-Huang Transform

PubMed Central

Xu, Huile; Liu, Jinyi; Hu, Haibo; Zhang, Yi

2016-01-01

Wearable sensors-based human activity recognition introduces many useful applications and services in health care, rehabilitation training, elderly monitoring and many other areas of human interaction. Existing works in this field mainly focus on recognizing activities by using traditional features extracted from Fourier transform (FT) or wavelet transform (WT). However, these signal processing approaches are suitable for a linear signal but not for a nonlinear signal. In this paper, we investigate the characteristics of the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) for dealing with activity data with properties such as nonlinearity and non-stationarity. A multi-features extraction method based on HHT is then proposed to improve the effect of activity recognition. The extracted multi-features include instantaneous amplitude (IA) and instantaneous frequency (IF) by means of empirical mode decomposition (EMD), as well as instantaneous energy density (IE) and marginal spectrum (MS) derived from Hilbert spectral analysis. Experimental studies are performed to verify the proposed approach by using the PAMAP2 dataset from the University of California, Irvine for wearable sensors-based activity recognition. Moreover, the effect of combining multi-features vs. a single-feature are investigated and discussed in the scenario of a dependent subject. The experimental results show that multi-features combination can further improve the performance measures. Finally, we test the effect of multi-features combination in the scenario of an independent subject. Our experimental results show that we achieve four performance indexes: recall, precision, F-measure, and accuracy to 0.9337, 0.9417, 0.9353, and 0.9377 respectively, which are all better than the achievements of related works. PMID:27918414

Insights into future air quality: a multipollutant analysis of future scenarios using the MARKAL model

EPA Science Inventory

In this presentation, we will provide an update on the development and evaluation of the Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The four AQF scenarios di...

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging activities. The method results in the development of LULC maps providing insights into a range of alternative futures using a scope of socio-economic and environmental conditions. A landslides assessment model, the ALICE model is then used as a final tool to analyze the potential impacts of simulated LUCC on landslide risks and the consequences in terms of vulnerability, e.g. changes in disaster risk allocation or characterization, degree of perturbation. This assessment intends to provide insights onto the potential future development of the valley to help identify areas at stake and to guide decision makers to help the risk management. Preliminary results show strong differences of futures land use and land cover maps that have significant influence on landslides hazards.

Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

PubMed

Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

2013-01-01

This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model

PubMed Central

Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

2013-01-01

This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40–45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China’s low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance. PMID:24204922

Eutrophication assessment and management methodology of multiple pollution sources of a landscape lake in North China.

PubMed

Chen, Yanxi; Niu, Zhiguang; Zhang, Hongwei

2013-06-01

Landscape lakes in the city suffer high eutrophication risk because of their special characters and functions in the water circulation system. Using a landscape lake HMLA located in Tianjin City, North China, with a mixture of point source (PS) pollution and non-point source (NPS) pollution, we explored the methodology of Fluent and AQUATOX to simulate and predict the state of HMLA, and trophic index was used to assess the eutrophication state. Then, we use water compensation optimization and three scenarios to determine the optimal management methodology. Three scenarios include ecological restoration scenario, best management practices (BMPs) scenario, and a scenario combining both. Our results suggest that the maintenance of a healthy ecosystem with ecoremediation is necessary and the BMPs have a far-reaching effect on water reusing and NPS pollution control. This study has implications for eutrophication control and management under development for urbanization in China.

Indirect health costs in ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kawalec, Paweł; Malinowski, Krzysztof Piotr

2015-04-01

The aim of this systematic review was to collect all current data on indirect costs related to inflammatory bowel disease as well as assessing homogeneity and comparability, and conducting a meta-analysis. Costs were collected using databases from Medline, Embase and Centre for Reviews and Dissemination databases, then average annual cost per patient was calculated and expressed in 2013-rate USD using the consumer price index and purchasing power parity (scenario 1) and then adjusted to specific gross domestic product (scenario 2) to make them comparable. The studies were then included in quantitative synthesis using the meta-analysis and bootstrap methods. This systematic review was carried out and reported in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. From 18 publications, overall annual indirect costs per patient as a result of the quantitative synthesis among all studies eligible for meta-analysis ranged from US$2425.01-US$9622.15 depending on the scenario and model used for analysis. The cost of presenteeism was assessed in only two studies. Considering heterogeneity among all identified studies random-effect model presented the most accurate results of meta-analysis equal to US$7189.27 and US$9622.15 per patient per year for scenario 1 and scenario 2, respectively. This systematic review revealed the existence of a relatively small number of studies that reported on the great economic burden of the disease upon society. A great variety of methodologies and cost components resulted in a very large discrepancy in indirect costs and made meta-analysis difficult to perform, so two scenarios were considered and meta-analysis conducted in subgroups to make data more comparable.

RMP Guidance for Offsite Consequence Analysis

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Offsite consequence analysis (OCA) consists of a worst-case release scenario and alternative release scenarios. OCA is required from facilities with chemicals above threshold quantities. RMP*Comp software can be used to perform calculations described here.

Assessing green waste route by using Network Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasmantika, I. H.; Maryono, M.

2018-02-01

Green waste, such as waste from park need treat proper. One of the main problems of green waste management is how to design optimum collection. This research aims to determine the optimum green waste collection by determining optimum route among park. The route optimum was assessed by using network analysis method. And the region five of Semarang city’s park within 20 parks in chose as case study. To enhancing recycle of green waste, three scenarios of treatment are proposed. Scenario 1 used one integrated treatment facility as terminal for enhancing recycle of green waste, Scenario 2 used two sites and scenario 3 used three sites. According to the assessment, the length of route of scenario 1 is 36.126 km and the time for collection estimated is 46 minutes. In scenario 2, the length of route is 36.471 km with a travel time is 47 minutes. The length of scenario three is 46.934 km and the time of collection is 60 minutes.

Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2018-03-01

An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

Scenario tree model for animal disease freedom framed in the OIE context using the example of a generic swine model for Aujeszky's disease in commercial swine in Canada.

PubMed

Christensen, Jette; Vallières, André

2016-01-01

"Freedom from animal disease" is an ambiguous concept that may have a different meaning in trade and science. For trade alone, there are different levels of freedom from OIE listed diseases. A country can: be recognized by OIE to be "officially free"; self-declare freedom, with no official recognition by the OIE; or report animal disease as absent (no occurrence) in six-monthly reports. In science, we apply scenario tree models to calculate the probability of a population being free from disease at a given prevalence to provide evidence of freedom from animal disease. Here, we link science with application by describing how a scenario tree model may contribute to a country's claim of freedom from animal disease. We combine the idea of a standardized presentation of scenario tree models for disease freedom and having a similar model for two different animal diseases to suggest that a simple generic model may help veterinary authorities to build and evaluate scenario tree models for disease freedom. Here, we aim to develop a generic scenario tree model for disease freedom that is: animal species specific, population specific, and has a simple structure. The specific objectives were: to explore the levels of freedom described in the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code; to describe how scenario tree models may contribute to a country's claim of freedom from animal disease; and to present a generic swine scenario tree model for disease freedom in Canada's domestic (commercial) swine applied to Aujeszky's disease (AD). In particular, to explore how historical survey data, and data mining may affect the probability of freedom and to explore different sampling strategies. Finally, to frame the generic scenario tree model in the context of Canada's claim of freedom from AD. We found that scenario tree models are useful to support a country's claim of freedom either as "recognized officially free" or as part of a self-declaration but the models should not stand alone in a claim. The generic AD scenario tree model demonstrated the benefit of combining three sources of surveillance data and helped to design the surveillance for the next year. The generic AD scenario model is one piece in Canada's self-declaration of freedom from AD. The model is strongly supported by the fact that AD has never been detected in Canada. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, Marc

This presentation describes the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool, H2FAST, and provides an overview of each of the three H2FAST formats: the H2FAST web tool, the H2FAST Excel spreadsheet, and the H2FAST Business Case Scenario (BCS) tool. Examples are presented to illustrate the types of questions that H2FAST can help answer.

Effect of Seepage on Change in Stress Distribution Scenario in Static and Seismic Behaviour of Earthen Dams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nandi, N.; Chowdhury, Roy; Dutta, S. C.

2018-02-01

The present study makes an effort to understand the damage of earthen dams under static and seismic loading condition. To make the investigation more realistic, behaviour of earthen dams considering the occurrence of a phreatic line indicating the submerged zone due to seepage within the dam body is considered. In case of earthen dams, homogeneous or nonhomogeneous, the consideration of the occurrence of a phreatic line or seepage line through the dam body is an important part of the earthen dam design methodology. The impervious material properties in the submerged zone below the phreatic line due to seepage may differ a lot in magnitudes as compared to the value of the same materials lying above this line. Hence, to have the exact stress distribution scenarios within the earthen dam, the different material properties above and below the phreatic line are considered in this present study. The study is first carried out by two-dimensional as well as three-dimensional finite element analysis under static loading condition. The work is further extended to observe the effect of seepage due to the consideration of the phreatic line on dynamic characteristics of earthen dams. Free vibration analysis and seismic analysis based on the Complete Quadratic Combination (CQC) method by considering twodimensional and three-dimensional modeling are carried out to present the frequencies, mode shapes and the stress distribution pattern of the earthen dam.

Artemisinin resistance--modelling the potential human and economic costs.

PubMed

Lubell, Yoel; Dondorp, Arjen; Guérin, Philippe J; Drake, Tom; Meek, Sylvia; Ashley, Elizabeth; Day, Nicholas P J; White, Nicholas J; White, Lisa J

2014-11-23

Artemisinin combination therapy is recommended as first-line treatment for falciparum malaria across the endemic world and is increasingly relied upon for treating vivax malaria where chloroquine is failing. Artemisinin resistance was first detected in western Cambodia in 2007, and is now confirmed in the Greater Mekong region, raising the spectre of a malaria resurgence that could undo a decade of progress in control, and threaten the feasibility of elimination. The magnitude of this threat has not been quantified. This analysis compares the health and economic consequences of two future scenarios occurring once artemisinin-based treatments are available with high coverage. In the first scenario, artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) is largely effective in the management of uncomplicated malaria and severe malaria is treated with artesunate, while in the second scenario ACT are failing at a rate of 30%, and treatment of severe malaria reverts to quinine. The model is applied to all malaria-endemic countries using their specific estimates for malaria incidence, transmission intensity and GDP. The model describes the direct medical costs for repeated diagnosis and retreatment of clinical failures as well as admission costs for severe malaria. For productivity losses, the conservative friction costing method is used, which assumes a limited economic impact for individuals that are no longer economically active until they are replaced from the unemployment pool. Using conservative assumptions and parameter estimates, the model projects an excess of 116,000 deaths annually in the scenario of widespread artemisinin resistance. The predicted medical costs for retreatment of clinical failures and for management of severe malaria exceed US$32 million per year. Productivity losses resulting from excess morbidity and mortality were estimated at US$385 million for each year during which failing ACT remained in use as first-line treatment. These 'ballpark' figures for the magnitude of the health and economic threat posed by artemisinin resistance add weight to the call for urgent action to detect the emergence of resistance as early as possible and contain its spread from known locations in the Mekong region to elsewhere in the endemic world.

Advancing Usability Evaluation through Human Reliability Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ronald L. Boring; David I. Gertman

2005-07-01

This paper introduces a novel augmentation to the current heuristic usability evaluation methodology. The SPAR-H human reliability analysis method was developed for categorizing human performance in nuclear power plants. Despite the specialized use of SPAR-H for safety critical scenarios, the method also holds promise for use in commercial off-the-shelf software usability evaluations. The SPAR-H method shares task analysis underpinnings with human-computer interaction, and it can be easily adapted to incorporate usability heuristics as performance shaping factors. By assigning probabilistic modifiers to heuristics, it is possible to arrive at the usability error probability (UEP). This UEP is not a literal probabilitymore » of error but nonetheless provides a quantitative basis to heuristic evaluation. When combined with a consequence matrix for usability errors, this method affords ready prioritization of usability issues.« less

A scenario-planning approach to human resources for health: the case of community pharmacists in Portugal.

PubMed

Gregório, João; Cavaco, Afonso; Velez Lapão, Luís

2014-10-13

Health workforce planning is especially important in a setting of political, social, and economic uncertainty. Portuguese community pharmacists are experiencing such conditions as well as increasing patient empowerment, shortage of primary care physicians, and primary health care reforms. This study aims to design three future scenarios for Portuguese community pharmacists, recognizing the changing environment as an opportunity to develop the role that community pharmacists may play in the Portuguese health system. The community pharmacist scenario design followed a three-stage approach. The first stage comprised thinking of relevant questions to be addressed and definition of the scenarios horizon. The second stage comprised two face-to-face, scenario-building workshops, for which 10 experts from practice and academic settings were invited. Academic and professional experience was the main selection criteria. The first workshop was meant for context analysis and design of draft scenarios, while the second was aimed at scenario analysis and validation. The final scenarios were built merging workshops' information with data collected from scientific literature followed by team consensus. The final stage involved scenario development carried by the authors alone, developing the narratives behind each scenario. Analysis allowed the identification of critical factors expected to have particular influence in 2020 for Portuguese community pharmacists, leading to two critical uncertainties: the "Legislative environment" and "Ability to innovate and develop services". Three final scenarios were built, namely "Pharmacy-Mall", "e-Pharmacist", and "Reorganize or Die". These scenarios provide possible trends for market needs, pharmacist workforce numbers, and expected qualifications to be developed by future professionals. In all scenarios it is clear that the future advance of Portuguese community pharmacists will depend on pharmaceutical services provision beyond medicine dispensing. This innovative professional role will require the acquisition or development of competencies in the fields of management, leadership, marketing, information technologies, teamwork abilities, and behavioural and communication skills. To accomplish a sustainable evolution, legislative changes and adequate financial incentives will be beneficial. The scenario development proves to be valuable as a strategic planning tool, not only for understanding future community pharmacist needs in a complex and uncertain environment, but also for other health care professionals.

Demonstration of a modelling-based multi-criteria decision analysis procedure for prioritisation of occupational risks from manufactured nanomaterials.

PubMed

Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Alstrup Jensen, Keld; Gottardo, Stefania; Isigonis, Panagiotis; Maccalman, Laura; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-11-01

Several tools to facilitate the risk assessment and management of manufactured nanomaterials (MN) have been developed. Most of them require input data on physicochemical properties, toxicity and scenario-specific exposure information. However, such data are yet not readily available, and tools that can handle data gaps in a structured way to ensure transparent risk analysis for industrial and regulatory decision making are needed. This paper proposes such a quantitative risk prioritisation tool, based on a multi-criteria decision analysis algorithm, which combines advanced exposure and dose-response modelling to calculate margins of exposure (MoE) for a number of MN in order to rank their occupational risks. We demonstrated the tool in a number of workplace exposure scenarios (ES) involving the production and handling of nanoscale titanium dioxide, zinc oxide (ZnO), silver and multi-walled carbon nanotubes. The results of this application demonstrated that bag/bin filling, manual un/loading and dumping of large amounts of dry powders led to high emissions, which resulted in high risk associated with these ES. The ZnO MN revealed considerable hazard potential in vivo, which significantly influenced the risk prioritisation results. In order to study how variations in the input data affect our results, we performed probabilistic Monte Carlo sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, which demonstrated that the performance of the proposed model is stable against changes in the exposure and hazard input variables.

A negotiation support system for disputes between Iraq and Turkey over the Tigris-Euphrates basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagonari, Fabio; Rossi, Claudio

2014-06-01

This paper describes a flexible prototype negotiation support system (NSS), to be used in a participatory context, based on the negotiation setting that was suggested by Turkey: bilateral negotiations between Turkey and Iraq, annual analysis, the assumption that Iraq and Syria have no inherent water rights, differences in water entitlements or needs are neglected, analysis restricted to the Tigris-Euphrates basin, current irrigation technologies in Turkey and Iraq, and negotiations on water quantity and quality that account for national dam construction plans. The analysis is based on all principles of the 1997 UN Convention that are recognised by Turkey: net benefits defined at a basin level, equitable use, non-significant harm, maintenance of water quality. The goal is to achieve a balance of interests among the parties that combines analysis of the quantity and quality of water and the net benefits. The negotiation outcomes arise from simulated dynamic interactions between the parties. We demonstrate an application of the NSS based on plausible and reasonable, but tentative, data to provide insights into water allocation rules, side-payments, water requirements of the two parties, and cooperation. Allocations should meet Iraqi non-significant harm and equitable use constraints and allocate the remaining water to Turkey for agricultural use in the feasible negotiation scenario, whereas allocations should meet Turkish maximum agricultural water demands and allocate the remaining water to Iraq for agricultural use in the unlikely cooperation scenario.

Waste management facility accident analysis (WASTE ACC) system: software for analysis of waste management alternatives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kohout, E.F.; Folga, S.; Mueller, C.

1996-03-01

This paper describes the Waste Management Facility Accident Analysis (WASTE{underscore}ACC) software, which was developed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) to support the US Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Waste Management (WM) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). WASTE{underscore}ACC is a decision support and database system that is compatible with Microsoft{reg_sign} Windows{trademark}. It assesses potential atmospheric releases from accidents at waste management facilities. The software provides the user with an easy-to-use tool to determine the risk-dominant accident sequences for the many possible combinations of process technologies, waste and facility types, and alternative cases described in the WM PEIS. In addition, its structure willmore » allow additional alternative cases and assumptions to be tested as part of the future DOE programmatic decision-making process. The WASTE{underscore}ACC system demonstrates one approach to performing a generic, systemwide evaluation of accident risks at waste management facilities. The advantages of WASTE{underscore}ACC are threefold. First, the software gets waste volume and radiological profile data that were used to perform other WM PEIS-related analyses directly from the WASTE{underscore}MGMT system. Second, the system allows for a consistent analysis across all sites and waste streams, which enables decision makers to understand more fully the trade-offs among various policy options and scenarios. Third, the system is easy to operate; even complex scenario runs are completed within minutes.« less

Climate change and socio-economic scenarios, land use modelling implications on water resources in an inner alpine area, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rey, Emmanuel; Schneider, Flurina; Liniger, Hanspeter; Weingartner, Rolf; Herweg, Karl

2014-05-01

The MontanAqua project aims to study the water resources management in the region Sierre-Montana (Valais, Switzerland). Land use is known to have an influence on the water resources (soil moisture dynamic, soil sealing, surface runoff and deep percolation). Thus land use modelling is of importance for the water resources management. An actual land use map was produced using infrared imagery (Niklaus 2012, Fig.1). Land use changes are known to be mainly drived by socio-economic factors as well as climatic factors (Dolman et al. 2003). Potential future Land uses was separatly predicted according to 1-. socio-economic and 2-. climatic/abiotic drivers : 1. 4 socio-economic scenarios were developped with stakeholders (Schneider et al. 2013) between 2010 and 2012. We modeled those socio-economic scenarios into a GIS application using Python programming (ModelBuilder in ArcGIS 10) to get a cartographic transcription of the wishes of the stakeholders for their region in 2050. 2. Uncorrelated climatic and abiotic drivers were used in a BIOMOD2 (Georges et al. 2013) framework. 4 models were used: Maximum Entropy (MAXENT), Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) and the Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA) to predict grassland, alpine pasture, vineyards and forest in our study region. Climatic scenarios were then introduced into the models to predict potential land use in 2050 driven only by climatic and abiotic factors The comparison of all the outputs demonstrates that the socio-economic drivers will have a more important impact in the region than the climatic drivers (e.g. -70% grassland surface for the worst socio-economic scenario vs. -40% of grassland surface for the worst climatic models). Further analysis also brings out the sensitivity of the grassland/alpine pasture system to the climate change and to socio-economic changes. Future work will be to cross the different land use maps obtained by the two model types and to use them to implement soil moisture and evaporation data for the near-future in the region Sierre-Montana. REFERENCES Niklaus M. 2012. An Object-oriented Approach for Mapping Current Land Use/Land Cover in the Study Area Crans-Montana-Sierre, Valais. MSc, Geography Institute, University of Bern Dolman A.J., Verhagen A. & Rovers C.A. 2003. Global environmental change and land use. Kluwer Academic Publisher. Dordrecht. Schneider F. & Rist S. 2013. Envisioning sustainable water futures in a transdisciplinary learning process: combining normative, explorative, and participatory scenario approaches. Sustainability Science, in press. Georges D. & Thuiller W. 2012. An example of species distribution modelling with biomod2. biomod2 version : 2.0.17

Analysis of drought impacts on electricity production in the Western and Texas interconnections of the United States.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harto, C. B.; Yan, Y. E.; Demissie, Y. K.

2012-02-09

Electricity generation relies heavily on water resources and their availability. To examine the interdependence of energy and water in the electricity context, the impacts of a severe drought to assess the risk posed by drought to electricity generation within the western and Texas interconnections has been examined. The historical drought patterns in the western United States were analyzed, and the risk posed by drought to electricity generation within the region was evaluated. The results of this effort will be used to develop scenarios for medium- and long-term transmission modeling and planning efforts by the Western Electricity Coordination Council (WECC) andmore » the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). The study was performed in response to a request developed by the Western Governors Association in conjunction with the transmission modeling teams at the participating interconnections. It is part of a U.S. Department of Energy-sponsored, national laboratory-led research effort to develop tools related to the interdependency of energy and water as part of a larger interconnection-wide transmission planning project funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. This study accomplished three main objectives. It provided a thorough literature review of recent studies of drought and the potential implications for electricity generation. It analyzed historical drought patterns in the western United States and used the results to develop three design drought scenarios. Finally, it quantified the risk to electricity generation for each of eight basins for each of the three drought scenarios and considered the implications for transmission planning. Literature on drought impacts on electricity generation describes a number of examples where hydroelectric generation capacity has been limited because of drought but only a few examples of impact on thermoelectric generation. In all documented cases, shortfalls of generation were met by purchasing power from the market, albeit at higher prices. However, sufficient excess generation and transmission must be available for this strategy to work. Although power purchase was the most commonly discussed drought mitigation strategy, a total of 12 response strategies were identified in the literature, falling into four main categories: electricity supply, electricity demand response, alternative water supplies, and water demand response. Three hydrological drought scenarios were developed based on a literature review and historical data analysis. The literature review helped to identify key drought parameters and data on drought frequency and severity. Historical hydrological drought data were analyzed for the western United States to identify potential drought correlations and estimate drought parameters. The first scenario was a West-wide drought occurring in 1977; it represented a severe drought in five of the eight basins in the study area. A second drought scenario was artificially defined by selecting the conditions from the 10th-percentile drought year for each individual basin; this drought was defined in this way to allow more consistent analysis of risk to electricity generation in each basin. The final scenario was based upon the current low-flow hydro modeling scenario defined by WECC, which uses conditions from the year 2001. These scenarios were then used to quantify the risk to electricity generation in each basin. The risk calculations represent a first-order estimate of the maximum amount of electricity generation that might be lost from both hydroelectric and thermoelectric sources under a worst-case scenario. Even with the conservative methodology used, the majority of basins showed a limited amount of risk under most scenarios. The level of risk in these basins is likely to be amenable to mitigation by known strategies, combined with existing reserve generation and transmission capacity. However, the risks to the Pacific Northwest and Texas Basins require further study. The Pacific Northwest is vulnerable because of its heavy reliance on hydroelectric generation. Texas, conversely, is vulnerable because of its heavy dependence on thermoelectric generation, which relies on surface water for cooling, along with the fact that this basin seems to experience more severe drought events on average. Further modeling analysis will be performed in conjunction with the modeling teams at the participating interconnections (WECC and ERCOT) to explore the transmission implications of the drought scenarios in more detail. Given the first-order nature of this analysis, more detailed study of the potential impacts of drought on electricity generation is recommended. Future analyses should attempt to model the potential impacts of drought at the power-plant level, including potential mitigation strategies; include the effects of drought duration; understand the impacts of climate change; and consider economic impacts.« less

Multi-diversity combining and selection for relay-assisted mixed RF/FSO system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Li; Wang, Weidong

2017-12-01

We propose and analyze multi-diversity combining and selection to enhance the performance of relay-assisted mixed radio frequency/free-space optics (RF/FSO) system. We focus on a practical scenario for cellular network where a single-antenna source is communicating to a multi-apertures destination through a relay equipped with multiple receive antennas and multiple transmit apertures. The RF single input multiple output (SIMO) links employ either maximal-ratio combining (MRC) or receive antenna selection (RAS), and the FSO multiple input multiple output (MIMO) links adopt either repetition coding (RC) or transmit laser selection (TLS). The performance is evaluated via an outage probability analysis over Rayleigh fading RF links and Gamma-Gamma atmospheric turbulence FSO links with pointing errors where channel state information (CSI) assisted amplify-and-forward (AF) scheme is considered. Asymptotic closed-form expressions at high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) are also derived. Coding gain and diversity order for different combining and selection schemes are further discussed. Numerical results are provided to verify and illustrate the analytical results.

Computer aided radiation analysis for manned spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Appleby, Matthew H.; Griffin, Brand N.; Tanner, Ernest R., II; Pogue, William R.; Golightly, Michael J.

1991-01-01

In order to assist in the design of radiation shielding an analytical tool is presented that can be employed in combination with CAD facilities and NASA transport codes. The nature of radiation in space is described, and the operational requirements for protection are listed as background information for the use of the technique. The method is based on the Boeing radiation exposure model (BREM) for combining NASA radiation transport codes and CAD facilities, and the output is given as contour maps of the radiation-shield distribution so that dangerous areas can be identified. Computational models are used to solve the 1D Boltzmann transport equation and determine the shielding needs for the worst-case scenario. BREM can be employed directly with the radiation computations to assess radiation protection during all phases of design which saves time and ultimately spacecraft weight.

A quantitative risk-analysis for introduction of Bovine Viral Diarrhoea Virus in the Netherlands through cattle imports.

PubMed

Santman-Berends, I M G A; Mars, M H; Van Duijn, L; Van den Broek, K W H; Van Schaik, G

2017-10-01

Many countries have implemented control programmes aiming to eradicate Bovine Viral Diarrhoea Virus (BVDV). After obtaining the free status, a risk of re-introduction of the virus through import may remain. Therefore the risk of introduction of BVDV through cattle imports in the Netherlands was quantified and the effectiveness of subsequent intervention measures was assessed. Data, literature and expert opinion were used to estimate values for input parameters to feed a stochastic simulation model. The probability that BVDV was imported was differentiated into persistently infected (PI) cattle, trojan cows that transmitted the virus vertically resulting in a PI foetus (TR) and transient infected cattle (TI). The import risk was stratified to beef, dairy, small scale, suckler, trade, veal and young stock herds. The intervention scenarios that were evaluated consisted of virus testing, a combination of virus testing and antibody testing in pregnant cows, abolishment of imports from high risk countries (i.e. countries with a BVDV prevalence >15%) and a combination of import restrictions and testing prior to import. Each year, 334 (5th and 95th percentile: 65-902) Dutch cattle herds were estimated to be infected with BVDV through import. Veal herds account for most infections associated with import (87%), whereas in the other herd types, only 9 beef, 6 dairy, 2 small scale, 16 suckler, 10 trade and 2 young stock herds are infected through imports per year. Import of PI cattle is the most important risk for introduction in veal herds, while import of TR cows is the main source of BVDV introduction in dairy, small scale and suckler herds. With the intervention scenarios, the number of BVDV infected herds in the Netherlands could be reduced to 81 and 58 herds per year when respectively virus testing or a combination of virus and antibody testing was applied or to 108 herds when import from high risk countries was abolished. With the scenario in which both import from high risk countries was abolished combined with virus and antibody testing, the number of BVDV infected herds could be reduced to 17 herds per year. The risk assessment showed that BVDV is regularly imported in the Netherlands. The import risk can effectively be reduced by implementing diagnostic testing prior to import and only import cattle with a favourable result, eventually combined with certain trade restrictions. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Evolutionary Algorithms for Boolean Functions in Diverse Domains of Cryptography.

PubMed

Picek, Stjepan; Carlet, Claude; Guilley, Sylvain; Miller, Julian F; Jakobovic, Domagoj

2016-01-01

The role of Boolean functions is prominent in several areas including cryptography, sequences, and coding theory. Therefore, various methods for the construction of Boolean functions with desired properties are of direct interest. New motivations on the role of Boolean functions in cryptography with attendant new properties have emerged over the years. There are still many combinations of design criteria left unexplored and in this matter evolutionary computation can play a distinct role. This article concentrates on two scenarios for the use of Boolean functions in cryptography. The first uses Boolean functions as the source of the nonlinearity in filter and combiner generators. Although relatively well explored using evolutionary algorithms, it still presents an interesting goal in terms of the practical sizes of Boolean functions. The second scenario appeared rather recently where the objective is to find Boolean functions that have various orders of the correlation immunity and minimal Hamming weight. In both these scenarios we see that evolutionary algorithms are able to find high-quality solutions where genetic programming performs the best.

Model selection and constraints from holographic dark energy scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhlaghi, I. A.; Malekjani, M.; Basilakos, S.; Haghi, H.

2018-07-01

In this study, we combine the expansion and the growth data in order to investigate the ability of the three most popular holographic dark energy models, namely event future horizon, Ricci scale, and Granda-Oliveros IR cutoffs, to fit the data. Using a standard χ2 minimization method, we place tight constraints on the free parameters of the models. Based on the values of the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, we find that two out of three holographic dark energy models are disfavoured by the data, because they predict a non-negligible amount of fractional dark energy density at early enough times. Although the growth rate data are relatively consistent with the holographic dark energy models which are based on Ricci scale and Granda-Oliveros IR cutoffs, the combined analysis provides strong indications against these models. Finally, we find that the model for which the holographic dark energy is related with the future horizon is consistent with the combined observational data.

Combined search for anomalous pseudoscalar HVV couplings in VH (H → b b ‾) production and H → VV decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khachatryan, V.; Sirunyan, A. M.; Tumasyan, A.; Adam, W.; Asilar, E.; Bergauer, T.; Brandstetter, J.; Brondolin, E.; Dragicevic, M.; Erö, J.; Flechl, M.; Friedl, M.; Frühwirth, R.; Ghete, V. M.; Hartl, C.; Hörmann, N.; Hrubec, J.; Jeitler, M.; Knünz, V.; König, A.; Krammer, M.; Krätschmer, I.; Liko, D.; Matsushita, T.; Mikulec, I.; Rabady, D.; Rad, N.; Rahbaran, B.; Rohringer, H.; Schieck, J.; Schöfbeck, R.; Strauss, J.; Treberer-Treberspurg, W.; Waltenberger, W.; Wulz, C.-E.; Mossolov, V.; Shumeiko, N.; Suarez Gonzalez, J.; Alderweireldt, S.; Cornelis, T.; De Wolf, E. A.; Janssen, X.; Knutsson, A.; Lauwers, J.; Luyckx, S.; Van De Klundert, M.; Van Haevermaet, H.; Van Mechelen, P.; Van Remortel, N.; Van Spilbeeck, A.; Abu Zeid, S.; Blekman, F.; D'Hondt, J.; Daci, N.; De Bruyn, I.; Deroover, K.; Heracleous, N.; Keaveney, J.; Lowette, S.; Moreels, L.; Olbrechts, A.; Python, Q.; Strom, D.; Tavernier, S.; Van Doninck, W.; Van Mulders, P.; Van Onsem, G. P.; Van Parijs, I.; Barria, P.; Brun, H.; Caillol, C.; Clerbaux, B.; De Lentdecker, G.; Fasanella, G.; Favart, L.; Goldouzian, R.; Grebenyuk, A.; Karapostoli, G.; Lenzi, T.; Léonard, A.; Maerschalk, T.; Marinov, A.; Perniè, L.; Randle-Conde, A.; Seva, T.; Vander Velde, C.; Vanlaer, P.; Yonamine, R.; Zenoni, F.; Zhang, F.; Beernaert, K.; Benucci, L.; Cimmino, A.; Crucy, S.; Dobur, D.; Fagot, A.; Garcia, G.; Gul, M.; Mccartin, J.; Ocampo Rios, A. A.; Poyraz, D.; Ryckbosch, D.; Salva, S.; Sigamani, M.; Tytgat, M.; Van Driessche, W.; Yazgan, E.; Zaganidis, N.; Basegmez, S.; Beluffi, C.; Bondu, O.; Brochet, S.; Bruno, G.; Caudron, A.; Ceard, L.; Delaere, C.; Favart, D.; Forthomme, L.; Giammanco, A.; Jafari, A.; Jez, P.; Komm, M.; Lemaitre, V.; Mertens, A.; Musich, M.; Nuttens, C.; Perrini, L.; Piotrzkowski, K.; Popov, A.; Quertenmont, L.; Selvaggi, M.; Vidal Marono, M.; Beliy, N.; Hammad, G. H.; Aldá Júnior, W. L.; Alves, F. L.; Alves, G. A.; Brito, L.; Correa Martins Junior, M.; Hamer, M.; Hensel, C.; Moraes, A.; Pol, M. E.; Rebello Teles, P.; Belchior Batista Das Chagas, E.; Carvalho, W.; Chinellato, J.; Custódio, A.; Da Costa, E. M.; De Jesus Damiao, D.; De Oliveira Martins, C.; Fonseca De Souza, S.; Huertas Guativa, L. M.; Malbouisson, H.; Matos Figueiredo, D.; Mora Herrera, C.; Mundim, L.; Nogima, H.; Prado Da Silva, W. L.; Santoro, A.; Sznajder, A.; Tonelli Manganote, E. J.; Vilela Pereira, A.; Ahuja, S.; Bernardes, C. A.; De Souza Santos, A.; Dogra, S.; Fernandez Perez Tomei, T. R.; Gregores, E. M.; Mercadante, P. G.; Moon, C. S.; Novaes, S. F.; Padula, Sandra S.; Romero Abad, D.; Ruiz Vargas, J. C.; Aleksandrov, A.; Hadjiiska, R.; Iaydjiev, P.; Rodozov, M.; Stoykova, S.; Sultanov, G.; Vutova, M.; Dimitrov, A.; Glushkov, I.; Litov, L.; Pavlov, B.; Petkov, P.; Ahmad, M.; Bian, J. G.; Chen, G. M.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, M.; Cheng, T.; Du, R.; Jiang, C. H.; Leggat, D.; Plestina, R.; Romeo, F.; Shaheen, S. M.; Spiezia, A.; Tao, J.; Wang, C.; Wang, Z.; Zhang, H.; Asawatangtrakuldee, C.; Ban, Y.; Li, Q.; Liu, S.; Mao, Y.; Qian, S. J.; Wang, D.; Xu, Z.; Avila, C.; Cabrera, A.; Chaparro Sierra, L. F.; Florez, C.; Gomez, J. P.; Gomez Moreno, B.; Sanabria, J. C.; Godinovic, N.; Lelas, D.; Puljak, I.; Ribeiro Cipriano, P. M.; Antunovic, Z.; Kovac, M.; Brigljevic, V.; Kadija, K.; Luetic, J.; Micanovic, S.; Sudic, L.; Attikis, A.; Mavromanolakis, G.; Mousa, J.; Nicolaou, C.; Ptochos, F.; Razis, P. A.; Rykaczewski, H.; Bodlak, M.; Finger, M.; Finger, M.; Assran, Y.; Elgammal, S.; Ellithi Kamel, A.; Mahmoud, M. A.; Calpas, B.; Kadastik, M.; Murumaa, M.; Raidal, M.; Tiko, A.; Veelken, C.; Eerola, P.; Pekkanen, J.; Voutilainen, M.; Härkönen, J.; Karimäki, V.; Kinnunen, R.; Lampén, T.; Lassila-Perini, K.; Lehti, S.; Lindén, T.; Luukka, P.; Peltola, T.; Tuominen, E.; Tuominiemi, J.; Tuovinen, E.; Wendland, L.; Talvitie, J.; Tuuva, T.; Besancon, M.; Couderc, F.; Dejardin, M.; Denegri, D.; Fabbro, B.; Faure, J. L.; Favaro, C.; Ferri, F.; Ganjour, S.; Givernaud, A.; Gras, P.; Hamel de Monchenault, G.; Jarry, P.; Locci, E.; Machet, M.; Malcles, J.; Rander, J.; Rosowsky, A.; Titov, M.; Zghiche, A.; Antropov, I.; Baffioni, S.; Beaudette, F.; Busson, P.; Cadamuro, L.; Chapon, E.; Charlot, C.; Davignon, O.; Filipovic, N.; Granier de Cassagnac, R.; Jo, M.; Lisniak, S.; Mastrolorenzo, L.; Miné, P.; Naranjo, I. N.; Nguyen, M.; Ochando, C.; Ortona, G.; Paganini, P.; Pigard, P.; Regnard, S.; Salerno, R.; Sauvan, J. B.; Sirois, Y.; Strebler, T.; Yilmaz, Y.; Zabi, A.; Agram, J.-L.; Andrea, J.; Aubin, A.; Bloch, D.; Brom, J.-M.; Buttignol, M.; Chabert, E. C.; Chanon, N.; Collard, C.; Conte, E.; Coubez, X.; Fontaine, J.-C.; Gelé, D.; Goerlach, U.; Goetzmann, C.; Le Bihan, A.-C.; Merlin, J. A.; Skovpen, K.; Van Hove, P.; Gadrat, S.; Beauceron, S.; Bernet, C.; Boudoul, G.; Bouvier, E.; Carrillo Montoya, C. A.; Chierici, R.; Contardo, D.; Courbon, B.; Depasse, P.; El Mamouni, H.; Fan, J.; Fay, J.; Gascon, S.; Gouzevitch, M.; Ille, B.; Lagarde, F.; Laktineh, I. B.; Lethuillier, M.; Mirabito, L.; Pequegnot, A. L.; Perries, S.; Ruiz Alvarez, J. D.; Sabes, D.; Sgandurra, L.; Sordini, V.; Vander Donckt, M.; Verdier, P.; Viret, S.; Toriashvili, T.; Tsamalaidze, Z.; Autermann, C.; Beranek, S.; Feld, L.; Heister, A.; Kiesel, M. K.; Klein, K.; Lipinski, M.; Ostapchuk, A.; Preuten, M.; Raupach, F.; Schael, S.; Schulte, J. F.; Verlage, T.; Weber, H.; Zhukov, V.; Ata, M.; Brodski, M.; Dietz-Laursonn, E.; Duchardt, D.; Endres, M.; Erdmann, M.; Erdweg, S.; Esch, T.; Fischer, R.; Güth, A.; Hebbeker, T.; Heidemann, C.; Hoepfner, K.; Knutzen, S.; Kreuzer, P.; Merschmeyer, M.; Meyer, A.; Millet, P.; Mukherjee, S.; Olschewski, M.; Padeken, K.; Papacz, P.; Pook, T.; Radziej, M.; Reithler, H.; Rieger, M.; Scheuch, F.; Sonnenschein, L.; Teyssier, D.; Thüer, S.; Cherepanov, V.; Erdogan, Y.; Flügge, G.; Geenen, H.; Geisler, M.; Hoehle, F.; Kargoll, B.; Kress, T.; Künsken, A.; Lingemann, J.; Nehrkorn, A.; Nowack, A.; Nugent, I. M.; Pistone, C.; Pooth, O.; Stahl, A.; Aldaya Martin, M.; Asin, I.; Bartosik, N.; Behnke, O.; Behrens, U.; Borras, K.; Burgmeier, A.; Campbell, A.; Contreras-Campana, C.; Costanza, F.; Diez Pardos, C.; Dolinska, G.; Dooling, S.; Dorland, T.; Eckerlin, G.; Eckstein, D.; Eichhorn, T.; Flucke, G.; Gallo, E.; Garay Garcia, J.; Geiser, A.; Gizhko, A.; Gunnellini, P.; Hauk, J.; Hempel, M.; Jung, H.; Kalogeropoulos, A.; Karacheban, O.; Kasemann, M.; Katsas, P.; Kieseler, J.; Kleinwort, C.; Korol, I.; Lange, W.; Leonard, J.; Lipka, K.; Lobanov, A.; Lohmann, W.; Mankel, R.; Melzer-Pellmann, I.-A.; Meyer, A. B.; Mittag, G.; Mnich, J.; Mussgiller, A.; Naumann-Emme, S.; Nayak, A.; Ntomari, E.; Perrey, H.; Pitzl, D.; Placakyte, R.; Raspereza, A.; Roland, B.; Sahin, M. Ö.; Saxena, P.; Schoerner-Sadenius, T.; Seitz, C.; Spannagel, S.; Trippkewitz, K. D.; Walsh, R.; Wissing, C.; Blobel, V.; Centis Vignali, M.; Draeger, A. R.; Erfle, J.; Garutti, E.; Goebel, K.; Gonzalez, D.; Görner, M.; Haller, J.; Hoffmann, M.; Höing, R. S.; Junkes, A.; Klanner, R.; Kogler, R.; Kovalchuk, N.; Lapsien, T.; Lenz, T.; Marchesini, I.; Marconi, D.; Meyer, M.; Nowatschin, D.; Ott, J.; Pantaleo, F.; Peiffer, T.; Perieanu, A.; Pietsch, N.; Poehlsen, J.; Rathjens, D.; Sander, C.; Scharf, C.; Schleper, P.; Schlieckau, E.; Schmidt, A.; Schumann, S.; Schwandt, J.; Sola, V.; Stadie, H.; Steinbrück, G.; Stober, F. M.; Tholen, H.; Troendle, D.; Usai, E.; Vanelderen, L.; Vanhoefer, A.; Vormwald, B.; Barth, C.; Baus, C.; Berger, J.; Böser, C.; Butz, E.; Chwalek, T.; Colombo, F.; De Boer, W.; Descroix, A.; Dierlamm, A.; Fink, S.; Frensch, F.; Friese, R.; Giffels, M.; Gilbert, A.; Haitz, D.; Hartmann, F.; Heindl, S. M.; Husemann, U.; Katkov, I.; Kornmayer, A.; Lobelle Pardo, P.; Maier, B.; Mildner, H.; Mozer, M. U.; Müller, T.; Müller, Th.; Plagge, M.; Quast, G.; Rabbertz, K.; Röcker, S.; Roscher, F.; Schröder, M.; Sieber, G.; Simonis, H. J.; Ulrich, R.; Wagner-Kuhr, J.; Wayand, S.; Weber, M.; Weiler, T.; Williamson, S.; Wöhrmann, C.; Wolf, R.; Anagnostou, G.; Daskalakis, G.; Geralis, T.; Giakoumopoulou, V. A.; Kyriakis, A.; Loukas, D.; Psallidas, A.; Topsis-Giotis, I.; Agapitos, A.; Kesisoglou, S.; Panagiotou, A.; Saoulidou, N.; Tziaferi, E.; Evangelou, I.; Flouris, G.; Foudas, C.; Kokkas, P.; Loukas, N.; Manthos, N.; Papadopoulos, I.; Paradas, E.; Strologas, J.; Bencze, G.; Hajdu, C.; Hazi, A.; Hidas, P.; Horvath, D.; Sikler, F.; Veszpremi, V.; Vesztergombi, G.; Zsigmond, A. J.; Beni, N.; Czellar, S.; Karancsi, J.; Molnar, J.; Szillasi, Z.; Bartók, M.; Makovec, A.; Raics, P.; Trocsanyi, Z. L.; Ujvari, B.; Choudhury, S.; Mal, P.; Mandal, K.; Sahoo, D. K.; Sahoo, N.; Swain, S. K.; Bansal, S.; Beri, S. B.; Bhatnagar, V.; Chawla, R.; Gupta, R.; Bhawandeep, U.; Kalsi, A. K.; Kaur, A.; Kaur, M.; Kumar, R.; Mehta, A.; Mittal, M.; Singh, J. B.; Walia, G.; Kumar, Ashok; Bhardwaj, A.; Choudhary, B. C.; Garg, R. B.; Malhotra, S.; Naimuddin, M.; Nishu, N.; Ranjan, K.; Sharma, R.; Sharma, V.; Bhattacharya, S.; Chatterjee, K.; Dey, S.; Dutta, S.; Majumdar, N.; Modak, A.; Mondal, K.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Roy, A.; Roy, D.; Roy Chowdhury, S.; Sarkar, S.; Sharan, M.; Abdulsalam, A.; Chudasama, R.; Dutta, D.; Jha, V.; Kumar, V.; Mohanty, A. K.; Pant, L. M.; Shukla, P.; Topkar, A.; Aziz, T.; Banerjee, S.; Bhowmik, S.; Chatterjee, R. M.; Dewanjee, R. K.; Dugad, S.; Ganguly, S.; Ghosh, S.; Guchait, M.; Gurtu, A.; Jain, Sa.; Kole, G.; Kumar, S.; Mahakud, B.; Maity, M.; Majumder, G.; Mazumdar, K.; Mitra, S.; Mohanty, G. B.; Parida, B.; Sarkar, T.; Sur, N.; Sutar, B.; Wickramage, N.; Chauhan, S.; Dube, S.; Kapoor, A.; Kothekar, K.; Sharma, S.; Bakhshiansohi, H.; Behnamian, H.; Etesami, S. M.; Fahim, A.; Khakzad, M.; Mohammadi Najafabadi, M.; Naseri, M.; Paktinat Mehdiabadi, S.; Rezaei Hosseinabadi, F.; Safarzadeh, B.; Zeinali, M.; Felcini, M.; Grunewald, M.; Abbrescia, M.; Calabria, C.; Caputo, C.; Colaleo, A.; Creanza, D.; Cristella, L.; De Filippis, N.; De Palma, M.; Fiore, L.; Iaselli, G.; Maggi, G.; Maggi, M.; Miniello, G.; My, S.; Nuzzo, S.; Pompili, A.; Pugliese, G.; Radogna, R.; Ranieri, A.; Selvaggi, G.; Silvestris, L.; Venditti, R.; Abbiendi, G.; Battilana, C.; Benvenuti, A. C.; Bonacorsi, D.; Braibant-Giacomelli, S.; Brigliadori, L.; Campanini, R.; Capiluppi, P.; Castro, A.; Cavallo, F. R.; Chhibra, S. S.; Codispoti, G.; Cuffiani, M.; Dallavalle, G. M.; Fabbri, F.; Fanfani, A.; Fasanella, D.; Giacomelli, P.; Grandi, C.; Guiducci, L.; Marcellini, S.; Masetti, G.; Montanari, A.; Navarria, F. L.; Perrotta, A.; Rossi, A. M.; Rovelli, T.; Siroli, G. P.; Tosi, N.; Travaglini, R.; Cappello, G.; Chiorboli, M.; Costa, S.; Di Mattia, A.; Giordano, F.; Potenza, R.; Tricomi, A.; Tuve, C.; Barbagli, G.; Ciulli, V.; Civinini, C.; D'Alessandro, R.; Focardi, E.; Gori, V.; Lenzi, P.; Meschini, M.; Paoletti, S.; Sguazzoni, G.; Viliani, L.; Benussi, L.; Bianco, S.; Fabbri, F.; Piccolo, D.; Primavera, F.; Calvelli, V.; Ferro, F.; Lo Vetere, M.; Monge, M. R.; Robutti, E.; Tosi, S.; Brianza, L.; Dinardo, M. E.; Fiorendi, S.; Gennai, S.; Gerosa, R.; Ghezzi, A.; Govoni, P.; Malvezzi, S.; Manzoni, R. A.; Marzocchi, B.; Menasce, D.; Moroni, L.; Paganoni, M.; Pedrini, D.; Ragazzi, S.; Redaelli, N.; Tabarelli de Fatis, T.; Buontempo, S.; Cavallo, N.; Di Guida, S.; Esposito, M.; Fabozzi, F.; Iorio, A. O. M.; Lanza, G.; Lista, L.; Meola, S.; Merola, M.; Paolucci, P.; Sciacca, C.; Thyssen, F.; Azzi, P.; Bacchetta, N.; Benato, L.; Bisello, D.; Boletti, A.; Branca, A.; Carlin, R.; Checchia, P.; Dall'Osso, M.; Dorigo, T.; Dosselli, U.; Fanzago, F.; Gasparini, F.; Gasparini, U.; Gozzelino, A.; Kanishchev, K.; Lacaprara, S.; Margoni, M.; Meneguzzo, A. T.; Pazzini, J.; Pozzobon, N.; Ronchese, P.; Simonetto, F.; Torassa, E.; Tosi, M.; Zanetti, M.; Zotto, P.; Zucchetta, A.; Zumerle, G.; Braghieri, A.; Magnani, A.; Montagna, P.; Ratti, S. P.; Re, V.; Riccardi, C.; Salvini, P.; Vai, I.; Vitulo, P.; Alunni Solestizi, L.; Bilei, G. M.; Ciangottini, D.; Fanò, L.; Lariccia, P.; Mantovani, G.; Menichelli, M.; Saha, A.; Santocchia, A.; Androsov, K.; Azzurri, P.; Bagliesi, G.; Bernardini, J.; Boccali, T.; Castaldi, R.; Ciocci, M. A.; Dell'Orso, R.; Donato, S.; Fedi, G.; Foà, L.; Giassi, A.; Grippo, M. T.; Ligabue, F.; Lomtadze, T.; Martini, L.; Messineo, A.; Palla, F.; Rizzi, A.; Savoy-Navarro, A.; Serban, A. T.; Spagnolo, P.; Tenchini, R.; Tonelli, G.; Venturi, A.; Verdini, P. G.; Barone, L.; Cavallari, F.; D'imperio, G.; Del Re, D.; Diemoz, M.; Gelli, S.; Jorda, C.; Longo, E.; Margaroli, F.; Meridiani, P.; Organtini, G.; Paramatti, R.; Preiato, F.; Rahatlou, S.; Rovelli, C.; Santanastasio, F.; Traczyk, P.; Amapane, N.; Arcidiacono, R.; Argiro, S.; Arneodo, M.; Bellan, R.; Biino, C.; Cartiglia, N.; Costa, M.; Covarelli, R.; Degano, A.; Demaria, N.; Finco, L.; Kiani, B.; Mariotti, C.; Maselli, S.; Migliore, E.; Monaco, V.; Monteil, E.; Obertino, M. M.; Pacher, L.; Pastrone, N.; Pelliccioni, M.; Pinna Angioni, G. L.; Ravera, F.; Romero, A.; Ruspa, M.; Sacchi, R.; Solano, A.; Staiano, A.; Belforte, S.; Candelise, V.; Casarsa, M.; Cossutti, F.; Della Ricca, G.; Gobbo, B.; La Licata, C.; Marone, M.; Schizzi, A.; Zanetti, A.; Kropivnitskaya, A.; Nam, S. K.; Kim, D. H.; Kim, G. N.; Kim, M. S.; Kong, D. J.; Lee, S.; Oh, Y. D.; Sakharov, A.; Son, D. C.; Brochero Cifuentes, J. A.; Kim, H.; Kim, T. J.; Song, S.; Cho, S.; Choi, S.; Go, Y.; Gyun, D.; Hong, B.; Kim, H.; Kim, Y.; Lee, B.; Lee, K.; Lee, K. S.; Lee, S.; Park, S. K.; Roh, Y.; Yoo, H. D.; Choi, M.; Kim, H.; Kim, J. H.; Lee, J. S. H.; Park, I. C.; Ryu, G.; Ryu, M. S.; Choi, Y.; Goh, J.; Kim, D.; Kwon, E.; Lee, J.; Yu, I.; Dudenas, V.; Juodagalvis, A.; Vaitkus, J.; Ahmed, I.; Ibrahim, Z. A.; Komaragiri, J. R.; Md Ali, M. A. B.; Mohamad Idris, F.; Wan Abdullah, W. A. T.; Yusli, M. N.; Casimiro Linares, E.; Castilla-Valdez, H.; De La Cruz-Burelo, E.; Heredia-De La Cruz, I.; Hernandez-Almada, A.; Lopez-Fernandez, R.; Sanchez-Hernandez, A.; Carrillo Moreno, S.; Vazquez Valencia, F.; Pedraza, I.; Salazar Ibarguen, H. A.; Morelos Pineda, A.; Krofcheck, D.; Butler, P. H.; Ahmad, A.; Ahmad, M.; Hassan, Q.; Hoorani, H. R.; Khan, W. A.; Khurshid, T.; Shoaib, M.; Bialkowska, H.; Bluj, M.; Boimska, B.; Frueboes, T.; Górski, M.; Kazana, M.; Nawrocki, K.; Romanowska-Rybinska, K.; Szleper, M.; Zalewski, P.; Brona, G.; Bunkowski, K.; Byszuk, A.; Doroba, K.; Kalinowski, A.; Konecki, M.; Krolikowski, J.; Misiura, M.; Olszewski, M.; Walczak, M.; Bargassa, P.; Beirão Da Cruz E Silva, C.; Di Francesco, A.; Faccioli, P.; Ferreira Parracho, P. G.; Gallinaro, M.; Hollar, J.; Leonardo, N.; Lloret Iglesias, L.; Nguyen, F.; Rodrigues Antunes, J.; Seixas, J.; Toldaiev, O.; Vadruccio, D.; Varela, J.; Vischia, P.; Afanasiev, S.; Bunin, P.; Gavrilenko, M.; Golutvin, I.; Gorbunov, I.; Kamenev, A.; Karjavin, V.; Lanev, A.; Malakhov, A.; Matveev, V.; Moisenz, P.; Palichik, V.; Perelygin, V.; Shmatov, S.; Shulha, S.; Skatchkov, N.; Smirnov, V.; Zarubin, A.; Golovtsov, V.; Ivanov, Y.; Kim, V.; Kuznetsova, E.; Levchenko, P.; Murzin, V.; Oreshkin, V.; Smirnov, I.; Sulimov, V.; Uvarov, L.; Vavilov, S.; Vorobyev, A.; Andreev, Yu.; Dermenev, A.; Gninenko, S.; Golubev, N.; Karneyeu, A.; Kirsanov, M.; Krasnikov, N.; Pashenkov, A.; Tlisov, D.; Toropin, A.; Epshteyn, V.; Gavrilov, V.; Lychkovskaya, N.; Popov, V.; Pozdnyakov, I.; Safronov, G.; Spiridonov, A.; Vlasov, E.; Zhokin, A.; Bylinkin, A.; Andreev, V.; Azarkin, M.; Dremin, I.; Kirakosyan, M.; Leonidov, A.; Mesyats, G.; Rusakov, S. V.; Baskakov, A.; Belyaev, A.; Boos, E.; Bunichev, V.; Dubinin, M.; Dudko, L.; Ershov, A.; Gribushin, A.; Klyukhin, V.; Kodolova, O.; Lokhtin, I.; Miagkov, I.; Obraztsov, S.; Petrushanko, S.; Savrin, V.; Azhgirey, I.; Bayshev, I.; Bitioukov, S.; Kachanov, V.; Kalinin, A.; Konstantinov, D.; Krychkine, V.; Petrov, V.; Ryutin, R.; Sobol, A.; Tourtchanovitch, L.; Troshin, S.; Tyurin, N.; Uzunian, A.; Volkov, A.; Adzic, P.; Cirkovic, P.; Milosevic, J.; Rekovic, V.; Alcaraz Maestre, J.; Calvo, E.; Cerrada, M.; Chamizo Llatas, M.; Colino, N.; De La Cruz, B.; Delgado Peris, A.; Escalante Del Valle, A.; Fernandez Bedoya, C.; Fernández Ramos, J. P.; Flix, J.; Fouz, M. C.; Garcia-Abia, P.; Gonzalez Lopez, O.; Goy Lopez, S.; Hernandez, J. M.; Josa, M. I.; Navarro De Martino, E.; Pérez-Calero Yzquierdo, A.; Puerta Pelayo, J.; Quintario Olmeda, A.; Redondo, I.; Romero, L.; Santaolalla, J.; Soares, M. S.; Albajar, C.; de Trocóniz, J. F.; Missiroli, M.; Moran, D.; Cuevas, J.; Fernandez Menendez, J.; Folgueras, S.; Gonzalez Caballero, I.; Palencia Cortezon, E.; Vizan Garcia, J. M.; Cabrillo, I. J.; Calderon, A.; Castiñeiras De Saa, J. R.; De Castro Manzano, P.; Fernandez, M.; Garcia-Ferrero, J.; Gomez, G.; Lopez Virto, A.; Marco, J.; Marco, R.; Martinez Rivero, C.; Matorras, F.; Piedra Gomez, J.; Rodrigo, T.; Rodríguez-Marrero, A. Y.; Ruiz-Jimeno, A.; Scodellaro, L.; Trevisani, N.; Vila, I.; Vilar Cortabitarte, R.; Abbaneo, D.; Auffray, E.; Auzinger, G.; Bachtis, M.; Baillon, P.; Ball, A. H.; Barney, D.; Benaglia, A.; Bendavid, J.; Benhabib, L.; Berruti, G. M.; Bloch, P.; Bocci, A.; Bonato, A.; Botta, C.; Breuker, H.; Camporesi, T.; Castello, R.; Cerminara, G.; D'Alfonso, M.; d'Enterria, D.; Dabrowski, A.; Daponte, V.; David, A.; De Gruttola, M.; De Guio, F.; De Roeck, A.; De Visscher, S.; Di Marco, E.; Dobson, M.; Dordevic, M.; Dorney, B.; du Pree, T.; Duggan, D.; Dünser, M.; Dupont, N.; Elliott-Peisert, A.; Franzoni, G.; Fulcher, J.; Funk, W.; Gigi, D.; Gill, K.; Giordano, D.; Girone, M.; Glege, F.; Guida, R.; Gundacker, S.; Guthoff, M.; Hammer, J.; Harris, P.; Hegeman, J.; Innocente, V.; Janot, P.; Kirschenmann, H.; Kortelainen, M. J.; Kousouris, K.; Krajczar, K.; Lecoq, P.; Lourenço, C.; Lucchini, M. T.; Magini, N.; Malgeri, L.; Mannelli, M.; Martelli, A.; Masetti, L.; Meijers, F.; Mersi, S.; Meschi, E.; Moortgat, F.; Morovic, S.; Mulders, M.; Nemallapudi, M. V.; Neugebauer, H.; Orfanelli, S.; Orsini, L.; Pape, L.; Perez, E.; Peruzzi, M.; Petrilli, A.; Petrucciani, G.; Pfeiffer, A.; Pierini, M.; Piparo, D.; Racz, A.; Reis, T.; Rolandi, G.; Rovere, M.; Ruan, M.; Sakulin, H.; Schäfer, C.; Schwick, C.; Seidel, M.; Sharma, A.; Silva, P.; Simon, M.; Sphicas, P.; Steggemann, J.; Stieger, B.; Stoye, M.; Takahashi, Y.; Treille, D.; Triossi, A.; Tsirou, A.; Veres, G. I.; Wardle, N.; Wöhri, H. K.; Zagozdzinska, A.; Zeuner, W. D.; Bertl, W.; Deiters, K.; Erdmann, W.; Horisberger, R.; Ingram, Q.; Kaestli, H. C.; Kotlinski, D.; Langenegger, U.; Renker, D.; Rohe, T.; Bachmair, F.; Bäni, L.; Bianchini, L.; Casal, B.; Dissertori, G.; Dittmar, M.; Donegà, M.; Eller, P.; Grab, C.; Heidegger, C.; Hits, D.; Hoss, J.; Kasieczka, G.; Lecomte, P.; Lustermann, W.; Mangano, B.; Marionneau, M.; Martinez Ruiz del Arbol, P.; Masciovecchio, M.; Meister, D.; Micheli, F.; Musella, P.; Nessi-Tedaldi, F.; Pandolfi, F.; Pata, J.; Pauss, F.; Perrozzi, L.; Quittnat, M.; Rossini, M.; Schönenberger, M.; Starodumov, A.; Takahashi, M.; Tavolaro, V. R.; Theofilatos, K.; Wallny, R.; Aarrestad, T. K.; Amsler, C.; Caminada, L.; Canelli, M. F.; Chiochia, V.; De Cosa, A.; Galloni, C.; Hinzmann, A.; Hreus, T.; Kilminster, B.; Lange, C.; Ngadiuba, J.; Pinna, D.; Rauco, G.; Robmann, P.; Ronga, F. J.; Salerno, D.; Yang, Y.; Cardaci, M.; Chen, K. H.; Doan, T. H.; Jain, Sh.; Khurana, R.; Konyushikhin, M.; Kuo, C. M.; Lin, W.; Lu, Y. J.; Pozdnyakov, A.; Yu, S. S.; Kumar, Arun; Chang, P.; Chang, Y. H.; Chang, Y. W.; Chao, Y.; Chen, K. F.; Chen, P. H.; Dietz, C.; Fiori, F.; Grundler, U.; Hou, W.-S.; Hsiung, Y.; Liu, Y. F.; Lu, R.-S.; Miñano Moya, M.; Petrakou, E.; Tsai, J. f.; Tzeng, Y. M.; Asavapibhop, B.; Kovitanggoon, K.; Singh, G.; Srimanobhas, N.; Suwonjandee, N.; Adiguzel, A.; Cerci, S.; Demiroglu, Z. S.; Dozen, C.; Dumanoglu, I.; Gecit, F. H.; Girgis, S.; Gokbulut, G.; Guler, Y.; Gurpinar, E.; Hos, I.; Kangal, E. E.; Kayis Topaksu, A.; Onengut, G.; Ozcan, M.; Ozdemir, K.; Ozturk, S.; Tali, B.; Topakli, H.; Zorbilmez, C.; Bilin, B.; Bilmis, S.; Isildak, B.; Karapinar, G.; Yalvac, M.; Zeyrek, M.; Gülmez, E.; Kaya, M.; Kaya, O.; Yetkin, E. A.; Yetkin, T.; Cakir, A.; Cankocak, K.; Sen, S.; Vardarlı, F. I.; Grynyov, B.; Levchuk, L.; Sorokin, P.; Aggleton, R.; Ball, F.; Beck, L.; Brooke, J. J.; Clement, E.; Cussans, D.; Flacher, H.; Goldstein, J.; Grimes, M.; Heath, G. P.; Heath, H. F.; Jacob, J.; Kreczko, L.; Lucas, C.; Meng, Z.; Newbold, D. M.; Paramesvaran, S.; Poll, A.; Sakuma, T.; Seif El Nasr-Storey, S.; Senkin, S.; Smith, D.; Smith, V. J.; Bell, K. W.; Belyaev, A.; Brew, C.; Brown, R. M.; Calligaris, L.; Cieri, D.; Cockerill, D. J. A.; Coughlan, J. A.; Harder, K.; Harper, S.; Olaiya, E.; Petyt, D.; Shepherd-Themistocleous, C. H.; Thea, A.; Tomalin, I. R.; Williams, T.; Worm, S. D.; Baber, M.; Bainbridge, R.; Buchmuller, O.; Bundock, A.; Burton, D.; Casasso, S.; Citron, M.; Colling, D.; Corpe, L.; Dauncey, P.; Davies, G.; De Wit, A.; Della Negra, M.; Dunne, P.; Elwood, A.; Futyan, D.; Hall, G.; Iles, G.; Lane, R.; Lucas, R.; Lyons, L.; Magnan, A.-M.; Malik, S.; Nash, J.; Nikitenko, A.; Pela, J.; Pesaresi, M.; Raymond, D. M.; Richards, A.; Rose, A.; Seez, C.; Tapper, A.; Uchida, K.; Vazquez Acosta, M.; Virdee, T.; Zenz, S. C.; Cole, J. E.; Hobson, P. R.; Khan, A.; Kyberd, P.; Leslie, D.; Reid, I. D.; Symonds, P.; Teodorescu, L.; Turner, M.; Borzou, A.; Call, K.; Dittmann, J.; Hatakeyama, K.; Liu, H.; Pastika, N.; Charaf, O.; Cooper, S. I.; Henderson, C.; Rumerio, P.; Arcaro, D.; Avetisyan, A.; Bose, T.; Gastler, D.; Rankin, D.; Richardson, C.; Rohlf, J.; Sulak, L.; Zou, D.; Alimena, J.; Berry, E.; Cutts, D.; Ferapontov, A.; Garabedian, A.; Hakala, J.; Heintz, U.; Jesus, O.; Laird, E.; Landsberg, G.; Mao, Z.; Narain, M.; Piperov, S.; Sagir, S.; Syarif, R.; Breedon, R.; Breto, G.; Calderon De La Barca Sanchez, M.; Chauhan, S.; Chertok, M.; Conway, J.; Conway, R.; Cox, P. T.; Erbacher, R.; Funk, G.; Gardner, M.; Ko, W.; Lander, R.; Mclean, C.; Mulhearn, M.; Pellett, D.; Pilot, J.; Ricci-Tam, F.; Shalhout, S.; Smith, J.; Squires, M.; Stolp, D.; Tripathi, M.; Wilbur, S.; Yohay, R.; Cousins, R.; Everaerts, P.; Florent, A.; Hauser, J.; Ignatenko, M.; Saltzberg, D.; Takasugi, E.; Valuev, V.; Weber, M.; Burt, K.; Clare, R.; Ellison, J.; Gary, J. W.; Hanson, G.; Heilman, J.; Ivova Paneva, M.; Jandir, P.; Kennedy, E.; Lacroix, F.; Long, O. R.; Malberti, M.; Olmedo Negrete, M.; Shrinivas, A.; Wei, H.; Wimpenny, S.; Yates, B. R.; Branson, J. G.; Cerati, G. B.; Cittolin, S.; D'Agnolo, R. T.; Derdzinski, M.; Holzner, A.; Kelley, R.; Klein, D.; Letts, J.; Macneill, I.; Olivito, D.; Padhi, S.; Pieri, M.; Sani, M.; Sharma, V.; Simon, S.; Tadel, M.; Vartak, A.; Wasserbaech, S.; Welke, C.; Würthwein, F.; Yagil, A.; Zevi Della Porta, G.; Bradmiller-Feld, J.; Campagnari, C.; Dishaw, A.; Dutta, V.; Flowers, K.; Franco Sevilla, M.; Geffert, P.; George, C.; Golf, F.; Gouskos, L.; Gran, J.; Incandela, J.; Mccoll, N.; Mullin, S. D.; Richman, J.; Stuart, D.; Suarez, I.; West, C.; Yoo, J.; Anderson, D.; Apresyan, A.; Bornheim, A.; Bunn, J.; Chen, Y.; Duarte, J.; Mott, A.; Newman, H. B.; Pena, C.; Spiropulu, M.; Vlimant, J. R.; Xie, S.; Zhu, R. Y.; Andrews, M. B.; Azzolini, V.; Calamba, A.; Carlson, B.; Ferguson, T.; Paulini, M.; Russ, J.; Sun, M.; Vogel, H.; Vorobiev, I.; Cumalat, J. P.; Ford, W. T.; Gaz, A.; Jensen, F.; Johnson, A.; Krohn, M.; Mulholland, T.; Nauenberg, U.; Stenson, K.; Wagner, S. R.; Alexander, J.; Chatterjee, A.; Chaves, J.; Chu, J.; Dittmer, S.; Eggert, N.; Mirman, N.; Nicolas Kaufman, G.; Patterson, J. R.; Rinkevicius, A.; Ryd, A.; Skinnari, L.; Soffi, L.; Sun, W.; Tan, S. M.; Teo, W. D.; Thom, J.; Thompson, J.; Tucker, J.; Weng, Y.; Wittich, P.; Abdullin, S.; Albrow, M.; Apollinari, G.; Banerjee, S.; Bauerdick, L. A. T.; Beretvas, A.; Berryhill, J.; Bhat, P. C.; Bolla, G.; Burkett, K.; Butler, J. N.; Cheung, H. W. K.; Chlebana, F.; Cihangir, S.; Elvira, V. D.; Fisk, I.; Freeman, J.; Gottschalk, E.; Gray, L.; Green, D.; Grünendahl, S.; Gutsche, O.; Hanlon, J.; Hare, D.; Harris, R. M.; Hasegawa, S.; Hirschauer, J.; Hu, Z.; Jayatilaka, B.; Jindariani, S.; Johnson, M.; Joshi, U.; Klima, B.; Kreis, B.; Lammel, S.; Linacre, J.; Lincoln, D.; Lipton, R.; Liu, T.; Lopes De Sá, R.; Lykken, J.; Maeshima, K.; Marraffino, J. M.; Maruyama, S.; Mason, D.; McBride, P.; Merkel, P.; Mrenna, S.; Nahn, S.; Newman-Holmes, C.; O'Dell, V.; Pedro, K.; Prokofyev, O.; Rakness, G.; Sexton-Kennedy, E.; Soha, A.; Spalding, W. J.; Spiegel, L.; Stoynev, S.; Strobbe, N.; Taylor, L.; Tkaczyk, S.; Tran, N. V.; Uplegger, L.; Vaandering, E. W.; Vernieri, C.; Verzocchi, M.; Vidal, R.; Wang, M.; Weber, H. A.; Whitbeck, A.; Acosta, D.; Avery, P.; Bortignon, P.; Bourilkov, D.; Carnes, A.; Carver, M.; Curry, D.; Das, S.; Field, R. D.; Furic, I. K.; Gleyzer, S. V.; Konigsberg, J.; Korytov, A.; Kotov, K.; Ma, P.; Matchev, K.; Mei, H.; Milenovic, P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Rank, D.; Rossin, R.; Shchutska, L.; Snowball, M.; Sperka, D.; Terentyev, N.; Thomas, L.; Wang, J.; Wang, S.; Yelton, J.; Hewamanage, S.; Linn, S.; Markowitz, P.; Martinez, G.; Rodriguez, J. L.; Ackert, A.; Adams, J. R.; Adams, T.; Askew, A.; Bein, S.; Bochenek, J.; Diamond, B.; Haas, J.; Hagopian, S.; Hagopian, V.; Johnson, K. F.; Khatiwada, A.; Prosper, H.; Weinberg, M.; Baarmand, M. M.; Bhopatkar, V.; Colafranceschi, S.; Hohlmann, M.; Kalakhety, H.; Noonan, D.; Roy, T.; Yumiceva, F.; Adams, M. R.; Apanasevich, L.; Berry, D.; Betts, R. R.; Bucinskaite, I.; Cavanaugh, R.; Evdokimov, O.; Gauthier, L.; Gerber, C. E.; Hofman, D. J.; Kurt, P.; O'Brien, C.; Sandoval Gonzalez, I. D.; Turner, P.; Varelas, N.; Wu, Z.; Zakaria, M.; Bilki, B.; Clarida, W.; Dilsiz, K.; Durgut, S.; Gandrajula, R. P.; Haytmyradov, M.; Khristenko, V.; Merlo, J.-P.; Mermerkaya, H.; Mestvirishvili, A.; Moeller, A.; Nachtman, J.; Ogul, H.; Onel, Y.; Ozok, F.; Penzo, A.; Snyder, C.; Tiras, E.; Wetzel, J.; Yi, K.; Anderson, I.; Barnett, B. A.; Blumenfeld, B.; Eminizer, N.; Fehling, D.; Feng, L.; Gritsan, A. V.; Maksimovic, P.; Martin, C.; Osherson, M.; Roskes, J.; Sady, A.; Sarica, U.; Swartz, M.; Xiao, M.; Xin, Y.; You, C.; Baringer, P.; Bean, A.; Benelli, G.; Bruner, C.; Kenny, R. P., III; Majumder, D.; Malek, M.; Mcbrayer, W.; Murray, M.; Sanders, S.; Stringer, R.; Wang, Q.; Ivanov, A.; Kaadze, K.; Khalil, S.; Makouski, M.; Maravin, Y.; Mohammadi, A.; Saini, L. K.; Skhirtladze, N.; Toda, S.; Lange, D.; Rebassoo, F.; Wright, D.; Anelli, C.; Baden, A.; Baron, O.; Belloni, A.; Calvert, B.; Eno, S. C.; Ferraioli, C.; Gomez, J. A.; Hadley, N. J.; Jabeen, S.; Kellogg, R. G.; Kolberg, T.; Kunkle, J.; Lu, Y.; Mignerey, A. C.; Shin, Y. H.; Skuja, A.; Tonjes, M. B.; Tonwar, S. C.; Apyan, A.; Barbieri, R.; Baty, A.; Bierwagen, K.; Brandt, S.; Busza, W.; Cali, I. A.; Demiragli, Z.; Di Matteo, L.; Gomez Ceballos, G.; Goncharov, M.; Gulhan, D.; Iiyama, Y.; Innocenti, G. M.; Klute, M.; Kovalskyi, D.; Lai, Y. S.; Lee, Y.-J.; Levin, A.; Luckey, P. D.; Marini, A. C.; Mcginn, C.; Mironov, C.; Narayanan, S.; Niu, X.; Paus, C.; Roland, C.; Roland, G.; Salfeld-Nebgen, J.; Stephans, G. S. F.; Sumorok, K.; Varma, M.; Velicanu, D.; Veverka, J.; Wang, J.; Wang, T. W.; Wyslouch, B.; Yang, M.; Zhukova, V.; Dahmes, B.; Evans, A.; Finkel, A.; Gude, A.; Hansen, P.; Kalafut, S.; Kao, S. C.; Klapoetke, K.; Kubota, Y.; Lesko, Z.; Mans, J.; Nourbakhsh, S.; Ruckstuhl, N.; Rusack, R.; Tambe, N.; Turkewitz, J.; Acosta, J. G.; Oliveros, S.; Avdeeva, E.; Bartek, R.; Bloom, K.; Bose, S.; Claes, D. R.; Dominguez, A.; Fangmeier, C.; Gonzalez Suarez, R.; Kamalieddin, R.; Knowlton, D.; Kravchenko, I.; Meier, F.; Monroy, J.; Ratnikov, F.; Siado, J. E.; Snow, G. R.; Alyari, M.; Dolen, J.; George, J.; Godshalk, A.; Harrington, C.; Iashvili, I.; Kaisen, J.; Kharchilava, A.; Kumar, A.; Rappoccio, S.; Roozbahani, B.; Alverson, G.; Barberis, E.; Baumgartel, D.; Chasco, M.; Hortiangtham, A.; Massironi, A.; Morse, D. M.; Nash, D.; Orimoto, T.; Teixeira De Lima, R.; Trocino, D.; Wang, R.-J.; Wood, D.; Zhang, J.; Bhattacharya, S.; Hahn, K. A.; Kubik, A.; Low, J. F.; Mucia, N.; Odell, N.; Pollack, B.; Schmitt, M.; Sung, K.; Trovato, M.; Velasco, M.; Brinkerhoff, A.; Dev, N.; Hildreth, M.; Jessop, C.; Karmgard, D. J.; Kellams, N.; Lannon, K.; Marinelli, N.; Meng, F.; Mueller, C.; Musienko, Y.; Planer, M.; Reinsvold, A.; Ruchti, R.; Smith, G.; Taroni, S.; Valls, N.; Wayne, M.; Wolf, M.; Woodard, A.; Antonelli, L.; Brinson, J.; Bylsma, B.; Durkin, L. S.; Flowers, S.; Hart, A.; Hill, C.; Hughes, R.; Ji, W.; Ling, T. Y.; Liu, B.; Luo, W.; Puigh, D.; Rodenburg, M.; Winer, B. L.; Wulsin, H. W.; Driga, O.; Elmer, P.; Hardenbrook, J.; Hebda, P.; Koay, S. A.; Lujan, P.; Marlow, D.; Medvedeva, T.; Mooney, M.; Olsen, J.; Palmer, C.; Piroué, P.; Stickland, D.; Tully, C.; Zuranski, A.; Malik, S.; Barker, A.; Barnes, V. E.; Benedetti, D.; Bortoletto, D.; Gutay, L.; Jha, M. K.; Jones, M.; Jung, A. W.; Jung, K.; Kumar, A.; Miller, D. H.; Neumeister, N.; Radburn-Smith, B. C.; Shi, X.; Shipsey, I.; Silvers, D.; Sun, J.; Svyatkovskiy, A.; Wang, F.; Xie, W.; Xu, L.; Parashar, N.; Stupak, J.; Adair, A.; Akgun, B.; Chen, Z.; Ecklund, K. M.; Geurts, F. J. M.; Guilbaud, M.; Li, W.; Michlin, B.; Northup, M.; Padley, B. P.; Redjimi, R.; Roberts, J.; Rorie, J.; Tu, Z.; Zabel, J.; Betchart, B.; Bodek, A.; de Barbaro, P.; Demina, R.; Eshaq, Y.; Ferbel, T.; Galanti, M.; Garcia-Bellido, A.; Han, J.; Harel, A.; Hindrichs, O.; Khukhunaishvili, A.; Lo, K. H.; Petrillo, G.; Tan, P.; Verzetti, M.; Chou, J. P.; Contreras-Campana, E.; Ferencek, D.; Gershtein, Y.; Halkiadakis, E.; Heindl, M.; Hidas, D.; Hughes, E.; Kaplan, S.; Kunnawalkam Elayavalli, R.; Lath, A.; Nash, K.; Saka, H.; Salur, S.; Schnetzer, S.; Sheffield, D.; Somalwar, S.; Stone, R.; Thomas, S.; Thomassen, P.; Walker, M.; Foerster, M.; Riley, G.; Rose, K.; Spanier, S.; Thapa, K.; Bouhali, O.; Castaneda Hernandez, A.; Celik, A.; Dalchenko, M.; De Mattia, M.; Delgado, A.; Dildick, S.; Eusebi, R.; Gilmore, J.; Huang, T.; Kamon, T.; Krutelyov, V.; Mueller, R.; Osipenkov, I.; Pakhotin, Y.; Patel, R.; Perloff, A.; Rose, A.; Safonov, A.; Tatarinov, A.; Ulmer, K. A.; Akchurin, N.; Cowden, C.; Damgov, J.; Dragoiu, C.; Dudero, P. R.; Faulkner, J.; Kunori, S.; Lamichhane, K.; Lee, S. W.; Libeiro, T.; Undleeb, S.; Volobouev, I.; Appelt, E.; Delannoy, A. G.; Greene, S.; Gurrola, A.; Janjam, R.; Johns, W.; Maguire, C.; Mao, Y.; Melo, A.; Ni, H.; Sheldon, P.; Tuo, S.; Velkovska, J.; Xu, Q.; Arenton, M. W.; Cox, B.; Francis, B.; Goodell, J.; Hirosky, R.; Ledovskoy, A.; Li, H.; Lin, C.; Neu, C.; Sinthuprasith, T.; Sun, X.; Wang, Y.; Wolfe, E.; Wood, J.; Xia, F.; Clarke, C.; Harr, R.; Karchin, P. E.; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, C.; Lamichhane, P.; Sturdy, J.; Belknap, D. A.; Carlsmith, D.; Cepeda, M.; Dasu, S.; Dodd, L.; Duric, S.; Gomber, B.; Grothe, M.; Hall-Wilton, R.; Herndon, M.; Hervé, A.; Klabbers, P.; Lanaro, A.; Levine, A.; Long, K.; Loveless, R.; Mohapatra, A.; Ojalvo, I.; Perry, T.; Pierro, G. A.; Polese, G.; Ruggles, T.; Sarangi, T.; Savin, A.; Sharma, A.; Smith, N.; Smith, W. H.; Taylor, D.; Verwilligen, P.; Woods, N.

2016-08-01

A search for anomalous pseudoscalar couplings of the Higgs boson H to electroweak vector bosons V (= W or Z) in a sample of proton-proton collision events corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 18.9 fb-1 at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV is presented. Events consistent with the topology of associated VH production, where the Higgs boson decays to a pair of bottom quarks and the vector boson decays leptonically, are analyzed. The consistency of data with a potential pseudoscalar contribution to the HVV interaction, expressed by the effective pseudoscalar cross section fractions fa3, is assessed by means of profile likelihood scans. Results are given for the VH channels alone and for a combined analysis of the VH and previously published H → VV channels. Under certain assumptions, fa3ZZ > 0.0034 is excluded at 95% confidence level in the combination. Scenarios in which these assumptions are relaxed are also considered.

RMP Guidance for Warehouses - Chapter 4: Offsite Consequence Analysis

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Offsite consequence analysis (OCA) informs government and the public about potential consequences of an accidental toxic or flammable chemical release at your facility, and consists of a worst-case release scenario and alternative release scenarios.

Analysis of LNG peakshaving-facility release-prevention systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pelto, P.J.; Baker, E.G.; Powers, T.B.

1982-05-01

The purpose of this study is to provide an analysis of release prevention systems for a reference LNG peakshaving facility. An overview assessment of the reference peakshaving facility, which preceeded this effort, identified 14 release scenarios which are typical of the potential hazards involved in the operation of LNG peakshaving facilities. These scenarios formed the basis for this more detailed study. Failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analysis were used to estimate the expected frequency of each release scenario for the reference peakshaving facility. In addition, the effectiveness of release prevention, release detection, and release control systems weremore » evaluated.« less

Vaccination strategies for future influenza pandemics: a severity-based cost effectiveness analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A critical issue in planning pandemic influenza mitigation strategies is the delay between the arrival of the pandemic in a community and the availability of an effective vaccine. The likely scenario, born out in the 2009 pandemic, is that a newly emerged influenza pandemic will have spread to most parts of the world before a vaccine matched to the pandemic strain is produced. For a severe pandemic, additional rapidly activated intervention measures will be required if high mortality rates are to be avoided. Methods A simulation modelling study was conducted to examine the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of plausible combinations of social distancing, antiviral and vaccination interventions, assuming a delay of 6-months between arrival of an influenza pandemic and first availability of a vaccine. Three different pandemic scenarios were examined; mild, moderate and extreme, based on estimates of transmissibility and pathogenicity of the 2009, 1957 and 1918 influenza pandemics respectively. A range of different durations of social distancing were examined, and the sensitivity of the results to variation in the vaccination delay, ranging from 2 to 6 months, was analysed. Results Vaccination-only strategies were not cost effective for any pandemic scenario, saving few lives and incurring substantial vaccination costs. Vaccination coupled with long duration social distancing, antiviral treatment and antiviral prophylaxis was cost effective for moderate pandemics and extreme pandemics, where it saved lives while simultaneously reducing the total pandemic cost. Combined social distancing and antiviral interventions without vaccination were significantly less effective, since without vaccination a resurgence in case numbers occurred as soon as social distancing interventions were relaxed. When social distancing interventions were continued until at least the start of the vaccination campaign, attack rates and total costs were significantly lower, and increased rates of vaccination further improved effectiveness and cost effectiveness. Conclusions The effectiveness and cost effectiveness consequences of the time-critical interplay of pandemic dynamics, vaccine availability and intervention timing has been quantified. For moderate and extreme pandemics, vaccination combined with rapidly activated antiviral and social distancing interventions of sufficient duration is cost effective from the perspective of life years saved. PMID:23398722

Vaccination strategies for future influenza pandemics: a severity-based cost effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Kelso, Joel K; Halder, Nilimesh; Milne, George J

2013-02-11

A critical issue in planning pandemic influenza mitigation strategies is the delay between the arrival of the pandemic in a community and the availability of an effective vaccine. The likely scenario, born out in the 2009 pandemic, is that a newly emerged influenza pandemic will have spread to most parts of the world before a vaccine matched to the pandemic strain is produced. For a severe pandemic, additional rapidly activated intervention measures will be required if high mortality rates are to be avoided. A simulation modelling study was conducted to examine the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of plausible combinations of social distancing, antiviral and vaccination interventions, assuming a delay of 6-months between arrival of an influenza pandemic and first availability of a vaccine. Three different pandemic scenarios were examined; mild, moderate and extreme, based on estimates of transmissibility and pathogenicity of the 2009, 1957 and 1918 influenza pandemics respectively. A range of different durations of social distancing were examined, and the sensitivity of the results to variation in the vaccination delay, ranging from 2 to 6 months, was analysed. Vaccination-only strategies were not cost effective for any pandemic scenario, saving few lives and incurring substantial vaccination costs. Vaccination coupled with long duration social distancing, antiviral treatment and antiviral prophylaxis was cost effective for moderate pandemics and extreme pandemics, where it saved lives while simultaneously reducing the total pandemic cost. Combined social distancing and antiviral interventions without vaccination were significantly less effective, since without vaccination a resurgence in case numbers occurred as soon as social distancing interventions were relaxed. When social distancing interventions were continued until at least the start of the vaccination campaign, attack rates and total costs were significantly lower, and increased rates of vaccination further improved effectiveness and cost effectiveness. The effectiveness and cost effectiveness consequences of the time-critical interplay of pandemic dynamics, vaccine availability and intervention timing has been quantified. For moderate and extreme pandemics, vaccination combined with rapidly activated antiviral and social distancing interventions of sufficient duration is cost effective from the perspective of life years saved.

Economic consequences of paratuberculosis control in dairy cattle: A stochastic modeling study.

PubMed

Smith, R L; Al-Mamun, M A; Gröhn, Y T

2017-03-01

The cost of paratuberculosis to dairy herds, through decreased milk production, early culling, and poor reproductive performance, has been well-studied. The benefit of control programs, however, has been debated. A recent stochastic compartmental model for paratuberculosis transmission in US dairy herds was modified to predict herd net present value (NPV) over 25 years in herds of 100 and 1000 dairy cattle with endemic paratuberculosis at initial prevalence of 10% and 20%. Control programs were designed by combining 5 tests (none, fecal culture, ELISA, PCR, or calf testing), 3 test-related culling strategies (all test-positive, high-positive, or repeated positive), 2 test frequencies (annual and biannual), 3 hygiene levels (standard, moderate, or improved), and 2 cessation decisions (testing ceased after 5 negative whole-herd tests or testing continued). Stochastic dominance was determined for each herd scenario; no control program was fully dominant for maximizing herd NPV in any scenario. Use of the ELISA test was generally preferred in all scenarios, but no paratuberculosis control was highly preferred for the small herd with 10% initial prevalence and was frequently preferred in other herd scenarios. Based on their effect on paratuberculosis alone, hygiene improvements were not found to be as cost-effective as test-and-cull strategies in most circumstances. Global sensitivity analysis found that economic parameters, such as the price of milk, had more influence on NPV than control program-related parameters. We conclude that paratuberculosis control can be cost effective, and multiple control programs can be applied for equivalent economic results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parametric Studies for Scenario Earthquakes: Site Effects and Differential Motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panza, G. F.; Panza, G. F.; Romanelli, F.

2001-12-01

In presence of strong lateral heterogeneities, the generation of local surface waves and local resonance can give rise to a complicated pattern in the spatial groundshaking scenario. For any object of the built environment with dimensions greater than the characteristic length of the ground motion, different parts of its foundations can experience severe non-synchronous seismic input. In order to perform an accurate estimate of the site effects, and of differential motion, in realistic geometries, it is necessary to make a parametric study that takes into account the complex combination of the source and propagation parameters. The computation of a wide set of time histories and spectral information, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios for different source and structural models, allows us the construction of damage scenarios that are out of reach of stochastic models. Synthetic signals, to be used as seismic input in a subsequent engineering analysis, e.g. for the design of earthquake-resistant structures or for the estimation of differential motion, can be produced at a very low cost/benefit ratio. We illustrate the work done in the framework of a large international cooperation following the guidelines of the UNESCO IUGS IGCP Project 414 "Realistic Modeling of Seismic Input for Megacities and Large Urban Areas" and show the very recent numerical experiments carried out within the EC project "Advanced methods for assessing the seismic vulnerability of existing motorway bridges" (VAB) to assess the importance of non-synchronous seismic excitation of long structures. >http://www.ictp.trieste.it/www_users/sand/projects.html

Cost-effectiveness and resource implications of aggressive action on TB in China, India and South Africa: a combined analysis of nine models

PubMed Central

Menzies, Nicolas A; Gomez, Gabriela B; Bozzani, Fiammetta; Chatterjee, Susmita; Foster, Nicola; Baena, Ines Garcia; Laurence, Yoko V; Qiang, Sun; Siroka, Andrew; Sweeney, Sedona; Verguet, Stéphane; Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Azman, Andrew S; Bendavid, Eran; Chang, Stewart T; Cohen, Ted; Denholm, Justin T; Dowdy, David W; Eckhoff, Philip A; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D; Handel, Andreas; Huynh, Grace H; Lalli, Marek; Lin, Hsien-Ho; Mandal, Sandip; McBryde, Emma S; Pandey, Surabhi; Salomon, Joshua A; Suen, Sze-chuan; Sumner, Tom; Trauer, James M; Wagner, Bradley G; Whalen, Christopher C; Wu, Chieh-Yin; Boccia, Delia; Chadha, Vineet K; Charalambous, Salome; Chin, Daniel P; Churchyard, Gavin; Daniels, Colleen; Dewan, Puneet; Ditiu, Lucica; Eaton, Jeffrey W; Grant, Alison D; Hippner, Piotr; Hosseini, Mehran; Mametja, David; Pretorius, Carel; Pillay, Yogan; Rade, Kiran; Sahu, Suvanand; Wang, Lixia; Houben, Rein MGJ; Kimerling, Michael E; White, Richard G; Vassall, Anna

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND The End TB Strategy sets global goals of reducing TB incidence and mortality by 50% and 75% respectively by 2025. We assessed resource requirements and cost-effectiveness of strategies to achieve these targets in China, India, and South Africa. METHODS We examined intervention scenarios developed in consultation with country stakeholders, which scaled-up existing interventions to high but feasible coverage by 2025. Nine independent TB modelling groups collaborated to estimate policy outcomes, and we costed each scenario by synthesizing service utilization estimates, empirical cost data, and expert opinion on implementation strategies. We estimated health impact and resource implications for 2016–2035, including patient-incurred costs. To assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness, we compared scenarios to a base case representing continued current practice. FINDINGS Incremental TB service costs differed by scenario and country, and in some cases more than doubled current funding needs. In general, expanding TB services substantially reduced patient-incurred costs; and in India and China this produced net cost-savings for most interventions under a societal perspective. In all countries, expanding TB care access produced substantial health gains. Compared to current practice, most intervention approaches appeared highly cost-effective when compared to conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds. INTERPRETATION Expanding TB services appears cost-effective for high-burden countries and could generate substantial health and economic benefits for patients, though funding needs challenge affordability. Further work is required to determine the optimal intervention mix for each country. PMID:27720689

Inferring Invasion History of Red Swamp Crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) in China from Mitochondrial Control Region and Nuclear Intron Sequences

PubMed Central

Li, Yanhe; Guo, Xianwu; Chen, Liping; Bai, Xiaohui; Wei, Xinlan; Zhou, Xiaoyun; Huang, Songqian; Wang, Weimin

2015-01-01

Identifying the dispersal pathways of an invasive species is useful for adopting the appropriate strategies to prevent and control its spread. However, these processes are exceedingly complex. So, it is necessary to apply new technology and collect representative samples for analysis. This study used Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) in combination with traditional genetic tools to examine extensive sample data and historical records to infer the invasion history of the red swamp crayfish, Procambarus clarkii, in China. The sequences of the mitochondrial control region and the proPOx intron in the nuclear genome of samples from 37 sites (35 in China and one each in Japan and the USA) were analyzed. The results of combined scenarios testing and historical records revealed a much more complex invasion history in China than previously believed. P. clarkii was most likely originally introduced into China from Japan from an unsampled source, and the species then expanded its range primarily into the middle and lower reaches and, to a lesser extent, into the upper reaches of the Changjiang River in China. No transfer was observed from the upper reaches to the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River. Human-mediated jump dispersal was an important dispersal pathway for P. clarkii. The results provide a better understanding of the evolutionary scenarios involved in the rapid invasion of P. clarkii in China. PMID:26132567

Modelling multiple threats to water security in the Peruvian Amazon using the WaterWorld Policy Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Soesbergen, A. J. J.; Mulligan, M.

2013-06-01

This paper explores a multitude of threats to water security in the Peruvian Amazon using the WaterWorld policy support system. WaterWorld is a spatially explicit, physically-based globally-applicable model for baseline and scenario water balance that is particularly well suited to heterogeneous environments with little locally available data (e.g. ungauged basins) and which is delivered through a simple web interface, requiring little local capacity for use. The model is capable of producing a hydrological baseline representing the mean water balance for 1950-2000 and allows for examining impacts of population, climate and land use change as well as land and water management interventions on hydrology. This paper describes the application of WaterWorld to the Peruvian Amazon, an area that is increasingly under pressure from deforestation and water pollution as a result of population growth, rural to urban migration and oil and gas extraction, potentially impacting both water quantity and water quality. By applying single and combined scenarios of: climate change, deforestation around existing and planned roads, population growth and rural-urban migration, mining and oil and gas exploitation, we explore the potential combined impacts of these multiple changes on water resources in the Peruvian Amazon and discuss the likely pathways for adaptation to and mitigation against their worst effects. See Mulligan et al. (2013) for a similar analysis for the entire Amazon Basin.

Personal Verification/Identification via Analysis of the Peripheral ECG Leads: Influence of the Personal Health Status on the Accuracy

PubMed Central

Bortolan, Giovanni

2015-01-01

Traditional means for identity validation (PIN codes, passwords), and physiological and behavioral biometric characteristics (fingerprint, iris, and speech) are susceptible to hacker attacks and/or falsification. This paper presents a method for person verification/identification based on correlation of present-to-previous limb ECG leads: I (r I), II (r II), calculated from them first principal ECG component (r PCA), linear and nonlinear combinations between r I, r II, and r PCA. For the verification task, the one-to-one scenario is applied and threshold values for r I, r II, and r PCA and their combinations are derived. The identification task supposes one-to-many scenario and the tested subject is identified according to the maximal correlation with a previously recorded ECG in a database. The population based ECG-ILSA database of 540 patients (147 healthy subjects, 175 patients with cardiac diseases, and 218 with hypertension) has been considered. In addition a common reference PTB dataset (14 healthy individuals) with short time interval between the two acquisitions has been taken into account. The results on ECG-ILSA database were satisfactory with healthy people, and there was not a significant decrease in nonhealthy patients, demonstrating the robustness of the proposed method. With PTB database, the method provides an identification accuracy of 92.9% and a verification sensitivity and specificity of 100% and 89.9%. PMID:26568954

Personal Verification/Identification via Analysis of the Peripheral ECG Leads: Influence of the Personal Health Status on the Accuracy.

PubMed

Jekova, Irena; Bortolan, Giovanni

2015-01-01

Traditional means for identity validation (PIN codes, passwords), and physiological and behavioral biometric characteristics (fingerprint, iris, and speech) are susceptible to hacker attacks and/or falsification. This paper presents a method for person verification/identification based on correlation of present-to-previous limb ECG leads: I (r I), II (r II), calculated from them first principal ECG component (r PCA), linear and nonlinear combinations between r I, r II, and r PCA. For the verification task, the one-to-one scenario is applied and threshold values for r I, r II, and r PCA and their combinations are derived. The identification task supposes one-to-many scenario and the tested subject is identified according to the maximal correlation with a previously recorded ECG in a database. The population based ECG-ILSA database of 540 patients (147 healthy subjects, 175 patients with cardiac diseases, and 218 with hypertension) has been considered. In addition a common reference PTB dataset (14 healthy individuals) with short time interval between the two acquisitions has been taken into account. The results on ECG-ILSA database were satisfactory with healthy people, and there was not a significant decrease in nonhealthy patients, demonstrating the robustness of the proposed method. With PTB database, the method provides an identification accuracy of 92.9% and a verification sensitivity and specificity of 100% and 89.9%.

Economic (gross cost) analysis of systematically implementing a programme of advance care planning in three Irish nursing homes.

PubMed

O'Sullivan, Ronan; Murphy, Aileen; O'Caoimh, Rónán; Cornally, Nicola; Svendrovski, Anton; Daly, Brian; Fizgerald, Carol; Twomey, Cillian; McGlade, Ciara; Molloy, D William

2016-04-26

Although advance care planning (ACP) and the use of advanced care directives (ACD) and end-of-life care plans are associated with a reduction in inappropriate hospitalisation, there is little evidence supporting the economic benefits of such programmes. We assessed the economic impact (gross savings) of the Let Me Decide (LMD) ACP programme in Ireland, specifically the impact on hospitalisations, bed days and location of resident deaths, before and after systematic implementation of the LMD-ACP combined with a palliative care education programme. The LMD-ACP was introduced into three long-term care (LTC) facilities in Southern Ireland and outcomes were compared pre and post implementation. In addition, 90 staff were trained in a palliative care educational programme. Economic analysis including probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. The uptake of an ACD or end-of-life care post-implementation rose from 25 to 76%. Post implementation, there were statistically significant decreases in hospitalisation rates from baseline (hospitalisation incidents declined from 27.8 to 14.6%, z = 3.96, p < 0.001; inpatient hospital days reduced from 0.54 to 0.36%, z = 8.85, p < 0.001). The percentage of hospital deaths also decreased from 22.9 to 8.4%, z = 3.22, p = 0.001. However, length of stay (LOS) increased marginally (7-9 days). Economic analysis suggested a cost-reduction related to reduced hospitalisations ranging between €10 and €17.8 million/annum and reduction in ambulance transfers, estimated at €0.4 million/annum if these results were extrapolated nationally. When unit costs and LOS estimates were varied in scenario analyses, the expected cost reduction owing to reduced hospitalisations, ranged from €17.7 to €42.4 million nationally. Implementation of the LMD-ACP (ACD/end-of-life care plans combined with palliative care education) programme resulted in reduced rates of hospitalisation. Despite an increase in LOS, likely reflecting more complex care needs of admitted residents, gross costs were reduced and scenario analysis projected large annual savings if these results were extrapolated to the wider LTC population in Ireland.

Future climate and land uses effects on flow and nutrient loads of a Mediterranean catchment in South Australia.

PubMed

Shrestha, Manoj K; Recknagel, Friedrich; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Meyer, Wayne

2017-07-15

Mediterranean catchments experience already high seasonal variability alternating between dry and wet periods, and are more vulnerable to future climate and land use changes. Quantification of catchment response under future changes is particularly crucial for better water resources management. This study assessed the combined effects of future climate and land use changes on water yield, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads of the Mediterranean Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia by means of the eco-hydrological model SWAT. Six different global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and a hypothetical land use change were used for future simulations. The climate models suggested a high degree of uncertainty, varying seasonally, in both flow and nutrient loads; however, a decreasing trend was observed. Average monthly TN and TP load decreased up to -55% and -56% respectively and were found to be dependent on flow magnitude. The annual and seasonal water yield and nutrient loads may only slightly be affected by envisaged land uses, but significantly altered by intermediate and high emission scenarios, predominantly during the spring season. The combined scenarios indicated the possibility of declining flow in future but nutrient enrichment in summer months, originating mainly from the land use scenario, that may elevate the risk of algal blooms in downstream drinking water reservoir. Hence, careful planning of future water resources in a Mediterranean catchment requires the assessment of combined effects of multiple climate models and land use scenarios on both water quantity and quality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The age of Homo naledi and associated sediments in the Rising Star Cave, South Africa

PubMed Central

Dirks, Paul HGM; Roberts, Eric M; Hilbert-Wolf, Hannah; Kramers, Jan D; Hawks, John; Dosseto, Anthony; Duval, Mathieu; Elliott, Marina; Evans, Mary; Grün, Rainer; Hellstrom, John; Herries, Andy IR; Joannes-Boyau, Renaud; Makhubela, Tebogo V; Placzek, Christa J; Robbins, Jessie; Spandler, Carl; Wiersma, Jelle; Woodhead, Jon; Berger, Lee R

2017-01-01

New ages for flowstone, sediments and fossil bones from the Dinaledi Chamber are presented. We combined optically stimulated luminescence dating of sediments with U-Th and palaeomagnetic analyses of flowstones to establish that all sediments containing Homo naledi fossils can be allocated to a single stratigraphic entity (sub-unit 3b), interpreted to be deposited between 236 ka and 414 ka. This result has been confirmed independently by dating three H. naledi teeth with combined U-series and electron spin resonance (US-ESR) dating. Two dating scenarios for the fossils were tested by varying the assumed levels of 222Rn loss in the encasing sediments: a maximum age scenario provides an average age for the two least altered fossil teeth of 253 +82/–70 ka, whilst a minimum age scenario yields an average age of 200 +70/–61 ka. We consider the maximum age scenario to more closely reflect conditions in the cave, and therefore, the true age of the fossils. By combining the US-ESR maximum age estimate obtained from the teeth, with the U-Th age for the oldest flowstone overlying Homo naledi fossils, we have constrained the depositional age of Homo naledi to a period between 236 ka and 335 ka. These age results demonstrate that a morphologically primitive hominin, Homo naledi, survived into the later parts of the Pleistocene in Africa, and indicate a much younger age for the Homo naledi fossils than have previously been hypothesized based on their morphology. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.24231.001 PMID:28483040

Ecosystem service provision in a changing Europe: adapting to the impacts of combined climate and socio-economic change.

PubMed

Dunford, Robert W; Smith, Alison C; Harrison, Paula A; Hanganu, Diana

Future patterns of European ecosystem services provision are likely to vary significantly as a result of climatic and socio-economic change and the implementation of adaptation strategies. However, there is little research in mapping future ecosystem services and no integrated assessment approach to map the combined impacts of these drivers. Map changing patterns in ecosystem services for different European futures and (a) identify the role of driving forces; (b) explore the potential influence of different adaptation options. The CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform is used to map spatial patterns in services (food, water and timber provision, atmospheric regulation, biodiversity existence/bequest, landscape experience and land use diversity) for a number of combined climatic and socio-economic scenarios. Eight adaptation strategies are explored within each scenario. Future service provision (particularly water provision) will be significantly impacted by climate change. Socio-economic changes shift patterns of service provision: more dystopian societies focus on food provision at the expense of other services. Adaptation options offer significant opportunities, but may necessitate trade-offs between services, particularly between agriculture- and forestry-related services. Unavoidable trade-offs between regions (particularly South-North) are also identified in some scenarios. Coordinating adaptation across regions and sectors will be essential to ensure that all needs are met: a factor that will become increasingly pressing under dystopian futures where inter-regional cooperation breaks down. Integrated assessment enables exploration of interactions and trade-offs between ecosystem services, highlighting the importance of taking account of complex cross-sectoral interactions under different future scenarios of planning adaptation responses.

Investigation of Active Interrogation Techniques to Detect Special Nuclear Material in Maritime Environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, Thomas Martin; Patton, Bruce W

The detection and interdiction of special nuclear material (SNM) is still a high-priority focus area for many organizations around the world. One method that is commonly considered a leading candidate in the detection of SNM is active interrogation (AI). AI is different from its close relative, passive interrogation, in that an active source is used to enhance or create a detectable signal (usually fission) from SNM, particularly in shielded scenarios or scenarios where the SNM has a low activity. The use of AI thus makes the detection of SNM easier or, in some scenarios, even enables previously impossible detection. Inmore » this work the signal from prompt neutrons and photons as well as delayed neutrons and photons will be combined, as is typically done in AI. In previous work AI has been evaluated experimentally and computationally. However, for the purposes of this work, past scenarios are considered lightly shielded and tightly coupled spatially. At most, the previous work interrogated the contents of one standard cargo container (2.44 x 2.60 x 6.10 m) and the source and detector were both within a few meters of the object being interrogated. A few examples of this type of previous work can be found in references 1 and 2. Obviously, more heavily shielded AI scenarios will require larger source intensities, larger detector surface areas (larger detectors or more detectors), greater detector efficiencies, longer count times, or some combination of these.« less

Surgical considerations in the management of combined radiation blast injury casualties caused by a radiological dirty bomb.

PubMed

Williams, Geraint; O'Malley, Michael

2010-09-01

The capacity for surgical teams to respond appropriately to the consequences caused by the detonation of a radiological dirty bomb will be determined by prior knowledge, familiarity and training for this type unique terrorist event. This paper will focus on the surgical aspects of this scenario with particular emphasis on the management of combined trauma-radiological injury. The paper also describes some of the more serious explosion-contamination incidents from nuclear industrial sources, summarises learning points and parallels taken from these scenarios in relation to subject of a radiological dirty bomb and describes the likely radioactive substances involved. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A key to improved ion core confinement in the JET tokamak: ion stiffness mitigation due to combined plasma rotation and low magnetic shear.

PubMed

Mantica, P; Angioni, C; Challis, C; Colyer, G; Frassinetti, L; Hawkes, N; Johnson, T; Tsalas, M; deVries, P C; Weiland, J; Baiocchi, B; Beurskens, M N A; Figueiredo, A C A; Giroud, C; Hobirk, J; Joffrin, E; Lerche, E; Naulin, V; Peeters, A G; Salmi, A; Sozzi, C; Strintzi, D; Staebler, G; Tala, T; Van Eester, D; Versloot, T

2011-09-23

New transport experiments on JET indicate that ion stiffness mitigation in the core of a rotating plasma, as described by Mantica et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 102, 175002 (2009)] results from the combined effect of high rotational shear and low magnetic shear. The observations have important implications for the understanding of improved ion core confinement in advanced tokamak scenarios. Simulations using quasilinear fluid and gyrofluid models show features of stiffness mitigation, while nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations do not. The JET experiments indicate that advanced tokamak scenarios in future devices will require sufficient rotational shear and the capability of q profile manipulation.

Bit error rate analysis of the K channel using wavelength diversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, Dhaval; Kothari, Dilip Kumar; Ghosh, Anjan K.

2017-05-01

The presence of atmospheric turbulence in the free space causes fading and degrades the performance of a free space optical (FSO) system. To mitigate the turbulence-induced fading, multiple copies of the signal can be transmitted on a different wavelength. Each signal, in this case, will undergo different fadings. This is known as the wavelength diversity technique. Bit error rate (BER) performance of the FSO systems with wavelength diversity under strong turbulence condition is investigated. K-distribution is chosen to model a strong turbulence scenario. The source information is transmitted onto three carrier wavelengths of 1.55, 1.31, and 0.85 μm. The signals at the receiver side are combined using three different methods: optical combining (OC), equal gain combining (EGC), and selection combining (SC). Mathematical expressions are derived for the calculation of the BER for all three schemes (OC, EGC, and SC). Results are presented for the link distance of 2 and 3 km under strong turbulence conditions for all the combining methods. The performance of all three schemes is also compared. It is observed that OC provides better performance than the other two techniques. Proposed method results are also compared with the published article.

Structural landscape of base pairs containing post-transcriptional modifications in RNA

PubMed Central

Seelam, Preethi P.; Sharma, Purshotam

2017-01-01

Base pairs involving post-transcriptionally modified nucleobases are believed to play important roles in a wide variety of functional RNAs. Here we present our attempts toward understanding the structural and functional role of naturally occurring modified base pairs using a combination of X-ray crystal structure database analysis, sequence analysis, and advanced quantum chemical methods. Our bioinformatics analysis reveals that despite their presence in all major secondary structural elements, modified base pairs are most prevalent in tRNA crystal structures and most commonly involve guanine or uridine modifications. Further, analysis of tRNA sequences reveals additional examples of modified base pairs at structurally conserved tRNA regions and highlights the conservation patterns of these base pairs in three domains of life. Comparison of structures and binding energies of modified base pairs with their unmodified counterparts, using quantum chemical methods, allowed us to classify the base modifications in terms of the nature of their electronic structure effects on base-pairing. Analysis of specific structural contexts of modified base pairs in RNA crystal structures revealed several interesting scenarios, including those at the tRNA:rRNA interface, antibiotic-binding sites on the ribosome, and the three-way junctions within tRNA. These scenarios, when analyzed in the context of available experimental data, allowed us to correlate the occurrence and strength of modified base pairs with their specific functional roles. Overall, our study highlights the structural importance of modified base pairs in RNA and points toward the need for greater appreciation of the role of modified bases and their interactions, in the context of many biological processes involving RNA. PMID:28341704

Modelling the impact of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on river microbial water quality.

PubMed

Islam, M M Majedul; Iqbal, Muhammad Shahid; Leemans, Rik; Hofstra, Nynke

2018-03-01

Microbial surface water quality is important, as it is related to health risk when the population is exposed through drinking, recreation or consumption of irrigated vegetables. The microbial surface water quality is expected to change with socio-economic development and climate change. This study explores the combined impacts of future socio-economic and climate change scenarios on microbial water quality using a coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model (MIKE21FM-ECOLab). The model was applied to simulate the baseline (2014-2015) and future (2040s and 2090s) faecal indicator bacteria (FIB: E. coli and enterococci) concentrations in the Betna river in Bangladesh. The scenarios comprise changes in socio-economic variables (e.g. population, urbanization, land use, sanitation and sewage treatment) and climate variables (temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise). Scenarios have been developed building on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways: SSP1 and SSP3 and Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in a matrix. An uncontrolled future results in a deterioration of the microbial water quality (+75% by the 2090s) due to socio-economic changes, such as higher population growth, and changes in rainfall patterns. However, microbial water quality improves under a sustainable scenario with improved sewage treatment (-98% by the 2090s). Contaminant loads were more influenced by changes in socio-economic factors than by climatic change. To our knowledge, this is the first study that combines climate change and socio-economic development scenarios to simulate the future microbial water quality of a river. This approach can also be used to assess future consequences for health risks. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

Entropy Econometrics for combining regional economic forecasts: A Data-Weighted Prior Estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Vázquez, Esteban; Moreno, Blanca

2017-10-01

Forecast combination has been studied in econometrics for a long time, and the literature has shown the superior performance of forecast combination over individual predictions. However, there is still controversy on which is the best procedure to specify the forecast weights. This paper explores the possibility of using a procedure based on Entropy Econometrics, which allows setting the weights for the individual forecasts as a mixture of different alternatives. In particular, we examine the ability of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed by Golan (J Econom 101(1):165-193, 2001) to combine forecasting models in a context of small sample sizes, a relative common scenario when dealing with time series for regional economies. We test the validity of the proposed approach using a simulation exercise and a real-world example that aims at predicting gross regional product growth rates for a regional economy. The forecasting performance of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed is compared with other combining methods. The simulation results indicate that in scenarios of heavily ill-conditioned datasets the approach suggested dominates other forecast combination strategies. The empirical results are consistent with the conclusions found in the numerical experiment.

Simulated effects of proposed Arkansas Valley Conduit on hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands through 2070, Pueblo Reservoir, southeastern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortiz, Roderick F.

2013-01-01

The purpose of the Arkansas Valley Conduit (AVC) is to deliver water for municipal and industrial use within the boundaries of the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District. Water supplied through the AVC would serve two needs: (1) to supplement or replace existing poor-quality water to communities downstream from Pueblo Reservoir; and (2) to meet a portion of the AVC participants’ projected water demands through 2070. The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) initiated an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) to address the potential environmental consequences associated with constructing and operating the proposed AVC, entering into a conveyance contract for the Pueblo Dam north-south outlet works interconnect (Interconnect), and entering into a long-term excess capacity master contract (Master Contract). Operational changes, as a result of implementation of proposed EIS alternatives, could change the hydrodynamics and water-quality conditions in Pueblo Reservoir. An interagency agreement was initiated between Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey to accurately simulate hydrodynamics and water quality in Pueblo Reservoir for projected demands associated with four of the seven proposed EIS alternatives. The four alternatives submitted to the USGS for scenario simulation included various combinations (action or no action) of the proposed Arkansas Valley Conduit, Master Contract, and Interconnect options. The four alternatives were the No Action, Comanche South, Joint Use Pipeline North, and Master Contract Only. Additionally, scenario simulations were done that represented existing conditions (Existing Conditions scenario) in Pueblo Reservoir. Water-surface elevations, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, dissolved solids, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrate, total phosphorus, total iron, and algal biomass (measured as chlorophyll-a) were simulated. Each of the scenarios was simulated for three contiguous water years representing a wet, average, and dry annual hydrologic cycle. Each selected simulation scenario also was evaluated for differences in direct/indirect effects and cumulative effects on a particular scenario. Analysis of the results for the direct/indirect- and cumulative-effects analyses indicated that, in general, the results were similar for most of the scenarios and comparisons in this report focused on results from the direct/indirect-effects analyses. Scenario simulations that represented existing conditions in Pueblo Reservoir were compared to the No Action scenario to assess changes in water quality from current demands (2006) to projected demands in 2070. Overall, comparisons of the results between the Existing Conditions and the No Action scenarios for water-surface elevations, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen, dissolved solids, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrate, total phosphorus, and total iron concentrations indicated that the annual median values generally were similar for all three simulated years. Additionally, algal groups and chlorophyll-a concentrations (algal biomass) were similar for the Existing Conditions and the No Action scenarios at site 7B in the epilimnion for the simulated period (Water Year 2000 through 2002). The No Action scenario also was compared individually to the Comanche South, Joint Use Pipeline North, and Master Contract Only scenarios. These comparisons were made to describe changes in the annual median, 85th percentile, or 15th percentile concentration between the No Action scenario and each of the other three simulation scenarios. Simulated water-surface elevations, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, dissolved solids, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrate, total phosphorus, total iron, algal groups, and chlorophyll-a concentrations in Pueblo Reservoir generally were similar between the No Action scenario and each of the other three simulation scenarios.

Glomed-Land: a research project to study the effect of global change in contrasted mediterranean landscapes and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Sinoga, José D.; Hueso-González, Paloma; León-Gross, Teodoro; Molina, Julián; Remond, Ricardo; Martínez-Murillo, Juan F.

2017-04-01

The Global Change is referred to the occurrence of great environmental changes associated to climatic fluctuations and human activity as wel (Vitousek et al., 1997; Steffen et al., 2004; Dearing et al., 2006). García-Ruiz et al. (2015) indicated that the relief varies very slowly in time while the changes in vegetation, overland flow generation and erosion occurred very rapidly and conditioned by their interactions and the climate variability as well. The GLOMED-LAND Project has its bases and scientific justification on the combination of the experience of the members of the research team, from one side, in the analysis of the dynamics and eco-geomorphological and climatic processes in Mediterranean environments of southern Spain, in the context of current Global change, and from another, in the study, development and application of new tools for simulation and modelling of future scenarios, and finally, in the analysis of the impact that society exercises the broadcast media related to the problem derived from the awareness and adaptation to Global change. Climate change (CC), directly affects the elements that compose the landscape. Both in the analysis of future climate scenarios raised by the IPCC (2013), such as the regionalisation carried out by AEMET, the Mediterranean region and, especially, the South of Spain, - with its defined longitudinal pluviometric gradient - configured as one of the areas of greatest uncertainty, reflected in a higher concentration of temporal rainfall, and even a reduction in the rainfall. Faced with this situation, the CC can modify the current landscape setting, with all the environmental impacts that this would entail for the terrestrial ecosystems and the systemic services rendered to the society. The combination of different work scales allows the analysis of the dynamics of the landscape and the consequence of its modifications on, hydro-geomorphological processes, closely related to degradation processes that can affect the abiotic, biotic, and human elements of the landscape (soil, plant cover, crops, water resources, etc.). Simulation and modelling is now an essential tool in the study of landscape and of the effects of Climate Change, not only towards the future through scenarios and simulation modelling, also to the past, to better understand what causes have led to effects, and to what extent. In this work we aim to create a set of software tools for analysis, modelling and simulation of the effects of Global change on two Mediterranean catchments: the middle and upper basin of the Grande River and the high Benamargosa River, both of them in the Province of Málaga (South of Spain). This will allow a full analysis, monitor, and predict those effects at local scale. Finally, we analyse the role that the impact of Global Change issues has had from the media point of view and what tendency can follow. References Dearing, J. et al. (2006): «Human-environment interactions: towards synthesis and simulation». Regional Environmental Change, n° 6, 115-123. García-Ruiz et al. (2015): «Los efectos geoecológicos del cambio global en el Pirineo central español: una revisión a distintas escalas espaciales y temporales». Pirineos, 170. Steffen, W. et al. (2004): Global Change and the Earth System: a planet under pressure. Executive summary. The IGBP Global Change Series. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelburg, 44 pp., New York. Vitousek, P.M. et al. (1997): «Human domination of earth's ecosystems». Science, n° 277, 494-499.

Examination of turbulent entrainment-mixing mechanisms using a combined approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, C.; Liu, Y.; Niu, S.

2011-10-01

Turbulent entrainment-mixing mechanisms are investigated by applying a combined approach to the aircraft measurements of three drizzling and two nondrizzling stratocumulus clouds collected over the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site during the March 2000 cloud Intensive Observation Period. Microphysical analysis shows that the inhomogeneous entrainment-mixing process occurs much more frequently than the homogeneous counterpart, and most cases of the inhomogeneous entrainment-mixing process are close to the extreme scenario, having drastically varying cloud droplet concentration but roughly constant volume-mean radius. It is also found that the inhomogeneous entrainment-mixing process can occur both near the cloudmore » top and in the middle level of a cloud, and in both the nondrizzling clouds and nondrizzling legs in the drizzling clouds. A new dimensionless number, the scale number, is introduced as a dynamical measure for different entrainment-mixing processes, with a larger scale number corresponding to a higher degree of homogeneous entrainment mixing. Further empirical analysis shows that the scale number that separates the homogeneous from the inhomogeneous entrainment-mixing process is around 50, and most legs have smaller scale numbers. Thermodynamic analysis shows that sampling average of filament structures finer than the instrumental spatial resolution also contributes to the dominance of inhomogeneous entrainment-mixing mechanism. The combined microphysical-dynamical-thermodynamic analysis sheds new light on developing parameterization of entrainment-mixing processes and their microphysical and radiative effects in large-scale models.« less

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

EPA Science Inventory

This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit m...

Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

DOE Data Explorer

Sullivan, John

2014-03-14

The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

PubMed Central

Johnson, Fred A.

2017-01-01

Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management implications and extensions. PMID:28800591

Integrating land use and climate change scenarios and models into assessment of forested watershed services in Southern Thailand.

PubMed

Trisurat, Yongyut; Eawpanich, Piyathip; Kalliola, Risto

2016-05-01

The Thadee watershed, covering 112km(2), is the main source of water for agriculture and household consumption in the Nakhon Srithammarat Province in Southern Thailand. As the natural forests upstream have been largely degraded and transformed to fruit tree and rubber plantations, problems with landslides and flooding have resulted. This research attempts to predict how further land-use/land-cover changes during 2009-2020 and conceivable changes in rainfall may influence the future levels of water yield and sediment load in the Thadee River. Three different land use scenarios (trend, development and conservation) were defined in collaboration with the local stakeholders, and three different rainfall scenarios (average rainfall, climate change and extreme wet) were determined on the basis of literature sources. Spatially explicit empirical modelling was employed to allocate future land demands and to assess the contributions of land use and rainfall changes, considering both their separate and combined effects. The results suggest that substantial land use changes may occur from a large expansion of rubber plantations in the upper sub-watersheds, especially under the development land use scenario. The reduction of the current annual rainfall by approximately 30% would decrease the predicted water yields by 38% from 2009. According to the extreme rainfall scenario (an increase of 36% with respect to current rainfall), an amplification of 50% of the current runoff could result. Sensitivity analyses showed that the predicted soil loss is more responsive to changes in rainfall than to the compared land use scenarios alone. However, very high sediment load and runoff levels were predicted on the basis of combined intensified land use and extreme rainfall scenarios. Three conservation activities-protection, reforestation and a mixed-cropping system-are proposed to maintain the functional watershed services of the Thadee watershed region. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

2017-01-01

Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management implications and extensions.

Designing Peace and Conflict Exercises: Level of Analysis, Scenario, and Role Specification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bartels, Elizabeth; McCown, Margaret; Wilkie, Timothy

2013-01-01

Attentiveness to and transparency about the methodological implications of the level of analysis selected for peace and conflict exercises constitute essential elements of good game design. The article explores the impact of level of analysis choices in the context of two key portions of exercises, scenario construction and role specification. It…

Uncertainty of simulated groundwater levels arising from stochastic transient climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley; Dassargues, Alain

2010-05-01

The evaluation of climate change impact on groundwater reserves represents a difficult task because both hydrological and climatic processes are complex and difficult to model. In this study, we present an innovative methodology that combines the use of integrated surface - subsurface hydrological models with advanced stochastic transient climate change scenarios. This methodology is applied to the Geer basin (480 km²) in Belgium, which is intensively exploited to supply the city of Liège (Belgium) with drinking water. The physically-based, spatially-distributed, surface-subsurface flow model has been developed with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere . The simultaneous solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere, as well as the internal calculation of the actual evapotranspiration as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the evaporative zone, enables a better representation of interconnected processes in all domains of the catchment (fully saturated zone, partially saturated zone, surface). Additionally, the use of both surface and subsurface observed data to calibrate the model better constrains the calibration of the different water balance terms. Crucially, in the context of climate change impacts on groundwater resources, the evaluation of groundwater recharge is improved. . This surface-subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin. Climate change simulations were obtained from six regional climate model (RCM) scenarios assuming the SRES A2 greenhouse gases emission (medium-high) scenario. These RCM scenarios were statistically downscaled using a transient stochastic weather generator technique, combining 'RainSim' and the 'CRU weather generator' for temperature and evapotranspiration time series. This downscaling technique exhibits three advantages compared with the 'delta change' method usually used in groundwater impact studies. (1) Corrections to climate model output are applied not only to the mean of climatic variables, but also across the statistical distributions of these variables. This is important as these distributions are expected to change in the future, with more extreme rainfall events, separated by longer dry periods. (2) The novel approach used in this study can simulate transient climate change from 2010 to 2085, rather than time series representative of a stationary climate for the period 2071-2100. (3) The weather generator is used to generate a large number of equiprobable climate change scenarios for each RCM, representative of the natural variability of the weather. All of these scenarios are applied as input to the Geer basin model to assess the projected impact of climate change on groundwater levels, the uncertainty arising for different RCM projections and the uncertainty linked to natural climatic variability. Using the output results from all scenarios, 95% confidence intervals are calculated for each year and month between 2010 and 2085. The climate change scenarios for the Geer basin model predict hotter and drier summers and warmer and wetter winters. Considering the results of this study, it is very likely that groundwater levels and surface flow rates in the Geer basin will decrease by the end of the century. This is of concern because it also means that groundwater quantities available for abstraction will also decrease. However, this study also shows that the uncertainty of these projections is relatively large compared to the projected changes so that it remains difficult to confidently determine the magnitude of the decrease. The use and combination of an integrated surface - subsurface model and stochastic climate change scenarios has never been used in previous climate change impact studies on groundwater resources. It constitutes an innovation and is an important tool for helping water managers to take decisions.

User needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger Knutti, Jacqueline

2017-04-01

In the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS) new climate change scenarios for Switzerland are currently under development that will be released in 2018 ("CH2018 scenarios"). An important component herein is the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user tailored and hence find a wide applicability in different sectors in Switzerland. A comprehensive market research was conducted to get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need. The survey targeted the most climate relevant sectors, and involved representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users and two specific workshops gathering the needs in dissemination. Additionally, the survey results were consolidated at a national symposium with around 150 participants from research, administration and practice. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the users of climate scenarios according to their level of usage and according to the different sectors. It turns out that the less intensive the usage of the climate scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. According to the survey it is especially the non-experts that should be better addressed in the new cycle of national climate scenarios. In terms of content, the survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in the predecessor climate scenario suite CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy sector for the combination of wind speed and global radiation. Furthermore, the survey reveals that the incorporation of provided uncertainty depends on the user type: while intensive users often can handle uncertainties, there are a lot of other users that either cannot or purposely do not make use of the uncertainty. For the development of new Swiss climate scenarios the survey results on end-user needs are considered as a starting point for further interactions with users. This is accomplished with the establishment of a sounding board accompagning the project throught its time span. Furthermore, explicit stakeholder-dialogues with key users of different sectors will be carried during the project phase.

Linking global scenarios to national assessments: Experiences from the Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment

Treesearch

Linda L. Langner; Peter J. Ince

2012-01-01

The Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment provides a nationally consistent analysis of the status and trends of the Nation's renewable forest resources. A global scenario approach was taken for the 2010 RPA Assessment to provide a shared world view of potential futures. The RPA Assessment scenarios were linked to the global scenarios and climate projections used...

Inadvertent Intruder Analysis For The Portsmouth On-Site Waste Disposal Facility (OSWDF)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Frank G.; Phifer, Mark A.

2014-01-22

The inadvertent intruder analysis considers the radiological impacts to hypothetical persons who are assumed to inadvertently intrude on the Portsmouth OSWDF site after institutional control ceases 100 years after site closure. For the purposes of this analysis, we assume that the waste disposal in the OSWDF occurs at time zero, the site is under institutional control for the next 100 years, and inadvertent intrusion can occur over the following 1,000 year time period. Disposal of low-level radioactive waste in the OSWDF must meet a requirement to assess impacts on such individuals, and demonstrate that the effective dose equivalent to anmore » intruder would not likely exceed 100 mrem per year for scenarios involving continuous exposure (i.e. chronic) or 500 mrem for scenarios involving a single acute exposure. The focus in development of exposure scenarios for inadvertent intruders was on selecting reasonable events that may occur, giving consideration to regional customs and construction practices. An important assumption in all scenarios is that an intruder has no prior knowledge of the existence of a waste disposal facility at the site. Results of the analysis show that a hypothetical inadvertent intruder at the OSWDF who, in the worst case scenario, resides on the site and consumes vegetables from a garden established on the site using contaminated soil (chronic agriculture scenario) would receive a maximum chronic dose of approximately 7.0 mrem/yr during the 1000 year period of assessment. This dose falls well below the DOE chronic dose limit of 100 mrem/yr. Results of the analysis also showed that a hypothetical inadvertent intruder at the OSWDF who, in the worst case scenario, excavates a basement in the soil that reaches the waste (acute basement construction scenario) would receive a maximum acute dose of approximately 0.25 mrem/yr during the 1000 year period of assessment. This dose falls well below the DOE acute dose limit of 500 mrem/yr. Disposal inventory constraints based on the intruder analysis are well above conservative estimates of the OSWDF inventory and, based on intruder disposal limits; about 7% of the disposal capacity is reached with the estimated OSWDF inventory.« less

Accuracy Analysis and Parameters Optimization in Urban Flood Simulation by PEST Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keum, H.; Han, K.; Kim, H.; Ha, C.

2017-12-01

The risk of urban flooding has been increasing due to heavy rainfall, flash flooding and rapid urbanization. Rainwater pumping stations, underground reservoirs are used to actively take measures against flooding, however, flood damage from lowlands continues to occur. Inundation in urban areas has resulted in overflow of sewer. Therefore, it is important to implement a network system that is intricately entangled within a city, similar to the actual physical situation and accurate terrain due to the effects on buildings and roads for accurate two-dimensional flood analysis. The purpose of this study is to propose an optimal scenario construction procedure watershed partitioning and parameterization for urban runoff analysis and pipe network analysis, and to increase the accuracy of flooded area prediction through coupled model. The establishment of optimal scenario procedure was verified by applying it to actual drainage in Seoul. In this study, optimization was performed by using four parameters such as Manning's roughness coefficient for conduits, watershed width, Manning's roughness coefficient for impervious area, Manning's roughness coefficient for pervious area. The calibration range of the parameters was determined using the SWMM manual and the ranges used in the previous studies, and the parameters were estimated using the automatic calibration method PEST. The correlation coefficient showed a high correlation coefficient for the scenarios using PEST. The RPE and RMSE also showed high accuracy for the scenarios using PEST. In the case of RPE, error was in the range of 13.9-28.9% in the no-parameter estimation scenarios, but in the scenario using the PEST, the error range was reduced to 6.8-25.7%. Based on the results of this study, it can be concluded that more accurate flood analysis is possible when the optimum scenario is selected by determining the appropriate reference conduit for future urban flooding analysis and if the results is applied to various rainfall event scenarios and parameter optimization. Keywords: Parameters Optimization; PEST model; Urban area Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (17AWMP-B079625-04) from Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Bioenergy production from perennial energy crops: a consequential LCA of 12 bioenergy scenarios including land use changes.

PubMed

Tonini, Davide; Hamelin, Lorie; Wenzel, Henrik; Astrup, Thomas

2012-12-18

In the endeavor of optimizing the sustainability of bioenergy production in Denmark, this consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) evaluated the environmental impacts associated with the production of heat and electricity from one hectare of Danish arable land cultivated with three perennial crops: ryegrass (Lolium perenne), willow (Salix viminalis) and Miscanthus giganteus. For each, four conversion pathways were assessed against a fossil fuel reference: (I) anaerobic co-digestion with manure, (II) gasification, (III) combustion in small-to-medium scale biomass combined heat and power (CHP) plants and IV) co-firing in large scale coal-fired CHP plants. Soil carbon changes, direct and indirect land use changes as well as uncertainty analysis (sensitivity, MonteCarlo) were included in the LCA. Results showed that global warming was the bottleneck impact, where only two scenarios, namely willow and Miscanthus co-firing, allowed for an improvement as compared with the reference (-82 and -45 t CO₂-eq. ha⁻¹, respectively). The indirect land use changes impact was quantified as 310 ± 170 t CO₂-eq. ha⁻¹, representing a paramount average of 41% of the induced greenhouse gas emissions. The uncertainty analysis confirmed the results robustness and highlighted the indirect land use changes uncertainty as the only uncertainty that can significantly change the outcome of the LCA results.

Application of scenario analysis and multiagent technique in land-use planning: a case study on Sanjiang wetlands.

PubMed

Yu, Huan; Ni, Shi-Jun; Kong, Bo; He, Zheng-Wei; Zhang, Cheng-Jiang; Zhang, Shu-Qing; Pan, Xin; Xia, Chao-Xu; Li, Xuan-Qiong

2013-01-01

Land-use planning has triggered debates on social and environmental values, in which two key questions will be faced: one is how to see different planning simulation results instantaneously and apply the results back to interactively assist planning work; the other is how to ensure that the planning simulation result is scientific and accurate. To answer these questions, the objective of this paper is to analyze whether and how a bridge can be built between qualitative and quantitative approaches for land-use planning work and to find out a way to overcome the gap that exists between the ability to construct computer simulation models to aid integrated land-use plan making and the demand for them by planning professionals. The study presented a theoretical framework of land-use planning based on scenario analysis (SA) method and multiagent system (MAS) simulation integration and selected freshwater wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain of China as a case study area. Study results showed that MAS simulation technique emphasizing quantitative process effectively compensated for the SA method emphasizing qualitative process, which realized the organic combination of qualitative and quantitative land-use planning work, and then provided a new idea and method for the land-use planning and sustainable managements of land resources.

Application of Scenario Analysis and Multiagent Technique in Land-Use Planning: A Case Study on Sanjiang Wetlands

PubMed Central

Ni, Shi-Jun; He, Zheng-Wei; Zhang, Cheng-Jiang; Zhang, Shu-Qing; Pan, Xin; Xia, Chao-Xu; Li, Xuan-Qiong

2013-01-01

Land-use planning has triggered debates on social and environmental values, in which two key questions will be faced: one is how to see different planning simulation results instantaneously and apply the results back to interactively assist planning work; the other is how to ensure that the planning simulation result is scientific and accurate. To answer these questions, the objective of this paper is to analyze whether and how a bridge can be built between qualitative and quantitative approaches for land-use planning work and to find out a way to overcome the gap that exists between the ability to construct computer simulation models to aid integrated land-use plan making and the demand for them by planning professionals. The study presented a theoretical framework of land-use planning based on scenario analysis (SA) method and multiagent system (MAS) simulation integration and selected freshwater wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain of China as a case study area. Study results showed that MAS simulation technique emphasizing quantitative process effectively compensated for the SA method emphasizing qualitative process, which realized the organic combination of qualitative and quantitative land-use planning work, and then provided a new idea and method for the land-use planning and sustainable managements of land resources. PMID:23818816

Ecosystem Services in Agricultural Landscapes: A Spatially Explicit Approach to Support Sustainable Soil Management

PubMed Central

Crossman, Neville D.; MacEwan, Richard J.; Wallace, D. Dugal; Bennett, Lauren T.

2014-01-01

Soil degradation has been associated with a lack of adequate consideration of soil ecosystem services. We demonstrate a broadly applicable method for mapping changes in the supply of two priority soil ecosystem services to support decisions about sustainable land-use configurations. We used a landscape-scale study area of 302 km2 in northern Victoria, south-eastern Australia, which has been cleared for intensive agriculture. Indicators representing priority soil services (soil carbon sequestration and soil water storage) were quantified and mapped under both a current and a future 25-year land-use scenario (the latter including a greater diversity of land uses and increased perennial crops and irrigation). We combined diverse methods, including soil analysis using mid-infrared spectroscopy, soil biophysical modelling, and geostatistical interpolation. Our analysis suggests that the future land-use scenario would increase the landscape-level supply of both services over 25 years. Soil organic carbon content and water storage to 30 cm depth were predicted to increase by about 11% and 22%, respectively. Our service maps revealed the locations of hotspots, as well as potential trade-offs in service supply under new land-use configurations. The study highlights the need to consider diverse land uses in sustainable management of soil services in changing agricultural landscapes. PMID:24616632

Ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes: a spatially explicit approach to support sustainable soil management.

PubMed

Forouzangohar, Mohsen; Crossman, Neville D; MacEwan, Richard J; Wallace, D Dugal; Bennett, Lauren T

2014-01-01

Soil degradation has been associated with a lack of adequate consideration of soil ecosystem services. We demonstrate a broadly applicable method for mapping changes in the supply of two priority soil ecosystem services to support decisions about sustainable land-use configurations. We used a landscape-scale study area of 302 km(2) in northern Victoria, south-eastern Australia, which has been cleared for intensive agriculture. Indicators representing priority soil services (soil carbon sequestration and soil water storage) were quantified and mapped under both a current and a future 25-year land-use scenario (the latter including a greater diversity of land uses and increased perennial crops and irrigation). We combined diverse methods, including soil analysis using mid-infrared spectroscopy, soil biophysical modelling, and geostatistical interpolation. Our analysis suggests that the future land-use scenario would increase the landscape-level supply of both services over 25 years. Soil organic carbon content and water storage to 30 cm depth were predicted to increase by about 11% and 22%, respectively. Our service maps revealed the locations of hotspots, as well as potential trade-offs in service supply under new land-use configurations. The study highlights the need to consider diverse land uses in sustainable management of soil services in changing agricultural landscapes.

Application of an uncertainty analysis approach to strategic environmental assessment for urban planning.

PubMed

Liu, Yi; Chen, Jining; He, Weiqi; Tong, Qingyuan; Li, Wangfeng

2010-04-15

Urban planning has been widely applied as a regulatory measure to guide a city's construction and management. It represents official expectations on future population and economic growth and land use over the urban area. No doubt, significant variations often occur between planning schemes and actual development; in particular in China, the world's largest developing country experiencing rapid urbanization and industrialization. This in turn leads to difficulty in estimating the environmental consequences of the urban plan. Aiming to quantitatively analyze the uncertain environmental impacts of the urban plan's implementation, this article developed an integrated methodology combining a scenario analysis approach and a stochastic simulation technique for strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Based on industrial development scenarios, Monte Carlo sampling is applied to generate all possibilities of the spatial distribution of newly emerged industries. All related environmental consequences can be further estimated given the industrial distributions as input to environmental quality models. By applying a HSY algorithm, environmentally unacceptable urban growth, regarding both economic development and land use spatial layout, can be systematically identified, providing valuable information to urban planners and decision makers. A case study in Dalian Municipality, Northeast China, is used to illustrate applicability of this methodology. The impacts of Urban Development Plan for Dalian Municipality (2003-2020) (UDP) on atmospheric environment are also discussed in this article.

Qualitative Environmental Analysis for Industrial Districts Implantation Using Geoprocessing Techniques

PubMed Central

Baretta, Luciane; Veronez, Maurício Roberto; Reinhardt, Alessandro Ott

2008-01-01

Industrial districts became important instruments which are used by the Public Power to induce economic decentralization and create new development poles. For this reason the legislative process is an indispensable means to define the priorities in the uses of soil, also to conduct and follow the process of industrial registration. However, the industrial district establishment shall not be analyzed by taking into account just the economic factor, but also the environmental issue of the enterprise. Thus, this research has the objective of determining adequate places for industrial districts implantation, having as a pilot area the city of São Leopoldo, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. A Geographic Information System for execution of spatial analysis and criteria creation on a large volume of environmental information will be used as a tool, which will be guided by the Municipal, State and Federal legislation and a Quickbird satellite image that covers the interest area. The main information used on this research are: altimeter, hydrography, soil use, pedology, geology and infrastructure. The results are visualized in scenarios modeled in accordance with the restrictions imposed upon the information, allowing at the end, to combine all scenarios and create through the multiple criteria method a map that indicates adequate places for implantation of industrial districts. PMID:19151443

Atmospheric energy and water balance perspective to projection of global-scale precipitation increase: may mitigation policies unexpectedly amplify precipitation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, A.; Fogli, P.; Vichi, M.; Zeng, N.

2012-12-01

Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen hydrological cycle during 21st century by comparison with the last decades of 20th century. From the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy budgets, we analyze strengthening of the hydrological cycle as measured by the increase in global-scale precipitation. Furthermore, by combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere we profitably obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and for the partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. Above approach is applied to investigate difference in precipitation increase in two scenario centennial simulations performed with an Earth System model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside medium-high non-mitigation scenario (baseline), we considered an aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2K. Quite unexpectedly, mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen hydrological cycle more than baseline till around 2070, that is a couple of decades after that mitigation of global temperature was already well established in E1. Our analysis shows that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to baseline. This appears to be primarily related to the abated aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to baseline. In contrast, last decades of 21st century (21C) show marked increase of global precipitation in baseline compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to 20th century. Our results show that radiative cooling is weakly effective in baseline throughout all 21C, so that two distinct mechanisms characterize the diverse strengthening of hydrological cycle in mid and end 21C. It is only through a very large perturbation of surface fluxes that baseline achieves larger increase of global precipitation in the last decades of 21C. Our energy/water budget analysis shows that this behavior is ultimately due to a bifurcation in the Bowen ratios change between the two scenarios. This work warns that mitigation policies, by abating aerosols, may lead to unexpected stronger intensification of hydrological cycle and associated changes that may last for decades after that global warming is effectively mitigated. On the other hand, it is here suggested that predictable components of the radiative forcing by aerosols may have the potential to effectively contribute to the decadal-scale predictability of changes in the hydrological strength.

What makes a good LOFT scenario? Issues in advancing current knowledge of scenario design. [Line Oriented Flight Training

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregorich, Steven E.

1991-01-01

An effort is made to ascertain which combinations of technical demands and crew coordination should be incorporated in training scenarios in order to maximize the effectiveness of training for crew members. Such high-fidelity simulation, which has come to be known as 'line-oriented flight training' or LOFT, involves the practice of both technical and crew coordination skills in a realistic setting, in conjunction with periodic reviews of performance via videotaped feedback. Attention is given to the integration of appropriate information, the measurement of objective task demands, the character of information from LOFT students, and the leeway allowed LOFT instructors.

Determining which land management practices reduce catchment scale flood risk and where to implement them for optimum effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattison, Ian; Lane, Stuart; Hardy, Richard; Reaney, Sim

2010-05-01

The theoretical basis for why changes in land management might increase flood risk are well known, but proving them through numerical modelling still remains a challenge. In large catchments, like the River Eden in Cumbria, NW England, one of the reasons for this is that it is unfeasible to test multiple scenarios in all their possible locations. We have developed two linked approaches to refine the number of scenarios and locations using 1) spatial downscaling and 2) participatory decision making, which potentially should increase the likelihood of finding a link between land use and downstream flooding. Firstly, land management practices can have both flood reducing and flood increasing effects, depending on their location. As a result some areas of the catchment are more important in determining downstream flood risk than others, depending on the land use and hydrological connectivity. We apply a downscaling approach to identify which sub-catchments are most important in explaining downstream flooding. This is important because it is in these areas that management options are most likely to have a positive and detectable effect. Secondly, once the dominant sub-catchment has been identified, the land management scenarios that are both feasible and likely to impact flood risk need to be determined. This was done through active stakeholder engagement. The stakeholder group undertook a brainstorming exercise, which suggested about 30 different rural land management scenarios, which were mapped on to a literature-based conceptual framework of hydrological processes. Then these options were evaluated based on five criteria: relevance to catchment, scientific effectiveness, testability, robustness/uncertainty and feasibility of implementation. The suitability of each scenario was discussed and prioritised by the stakeholder group based on scientific needs and expectations and local suitability and feasibility. The next stage of the participatory approach was a mapping workshop, whereby a map of the catchment was laid out and locations where each scenario could feasibly be implemented were drawn on. This was combined with an analysis of historical maps to identify past land covers and a catchment walkover survey to put modelling work in the real world context. The land management scenarios were tested using hydrological and hydraulic models. Landscape scale changes, such as the effects of compaction and afforestation were tested using a catchment scale hydrological mode, CRUM2D. Channel scale changes, such as re-meandering and floodplain storage were tested using the 1D hydraulic model, iSIS, by altering channel cross sections and creating spills between the channel and floodplain. It is expected that the channel modification and floodplain storage scenarios will have the greatest impact on flooding both at the local and catchment scales. The landscape scale changes are more diffuse and therefore their impact is expected to be less significant. Although, early analysis indicates that the spatial location of changes strongly influences their effect on flooding.