AgRISTARS: Agriculture and resources inventory surveys through aerospace remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

The rationale, objectives, participants, and approach of the AgRISTARS program are described. Progress is reported in activities related to early warning and crop condition assessment; inventory technology development (formerly foreign commodity production forecasting); yield model development; supporting research; soil moisture; renewable resources inventory; domestic crops and land cover; and conservation and pollution. Emphasis is on technological highlights.

Stochastic modeling of economic injury levels with respect to yearly trends in price commodity.

PubMed

Damos, Petros

2014-05-01

The economic injury level (EIL) concept integrates economics and biology and uses chemical applications in crop protection only when economic loss by pests is anticipated. The EIL is defined by five primary variables: the cost of management tactic per production unit, the price of commodity, the injury units per pest, the damage per unit injury, and the proportionate reduction of injury averted by the application of a tactic. The above variables are related according to the formula EIL = C/VIDK. The observable dynamic alteration of the EIL due to its different parameters is a major characteristic of its concept. In this study, the yearly effect of the economic variables is assessed, and in particular the influence of the parameter commodity value on the shape of the EIL function. In addition, to predict the effects of the economic variables on the EIL level, yearly commodity values were incorporated in the EIL formula and the generated outcomes were further modelled with stochastic linear autoregressive models having different orders. According to the AR(1) model, forecasts for the five-year period of 2010-2015 ranged from 2.33 to 2.41 specimens per sampling unit. These values represent a threshold that is in reasonable limits to justify future control actions. Management actions as related to productivity and price commodity significantly affect costs of crop production and thus define the adoption of IPM and sustainable crop production systems at local and international levels. This is an open access paper. We use the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license that permits unrestricted use, provided that the paper is properly attributed.

Profitability of Using Forecasting Techniques in the Commodities Market

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-12-01

12 II. THE NATURE OF THE COMMODITIES MARKET . . . . . 13 A. FUTURES TRADING . . . . ...... . . . . . 13 B. HEDGING IN THE COMMODITIES...1984 WHEAT ........ . . . ............... . 74 j7 4’ -- S . LIST OF FIGURES 2.1 Example of a Perfect Hedge . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 3.1 Iterative...actually results in a commodity delivery [Ref. 31. The majority of these transactions are * taken up by hedgers and speculators. B. HEDGING IN THE

Weather analysis and interpretation procedures developed for the US/Canada wheat and barley exploratory experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trenchard, M. H. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

Procedures and techniques for providing analyses of meteorological conditions at segments during the growing season were developed for the U.S./Canada Wheat and Barley Exploratory Experiment. The main product and analysis tool is the segment-level climagraph which depicts temporally meteorological variables for the current year compared with climatological normals. The variable values for the segment are estimates derived through objective analysis of values obtained at first-order station in the region. The procedures and products documented represent a baseline for future Foreign Commodity Production Forecasting experiments.

Normal crop calendars. Volume 2: The spring wheat states of Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

West, W. L., III (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The state crop calendars for the principal spring wheat producing states within the United States are presented. These crop calendars are an update of those produced for the large area crop inventory experiment multilabeling task during 1978and are compiled for the foreign commodity production forecasting (FCPF) project of the agriculture and resources inventory surveys through aerospace remote sensing program.

Regional crop yield forecasting: a probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Wit, A.; van Diepen, K.; Boogaard, H.

2009-04-01

Information on the outlook on yield and production of crops over large regions is essential for government services dealing with import and export of food crops, for agencies with a role in food relief, for international organizations with a mandate in monitoring the world food production and trade, and for commodity traders. Process-based mechanistic crop models are an important tool for providing such information, because they can integrate the effect of crop management, weather and soil on crop growth. When properly integrated in a yield forecasting system, the aggregated model output can be used to predict crop yield and production at regional, national and continental scales. Nevertheless, given the scales at which these models operate, the results are subject to large uncertainties due to poorly known weather conditions and crop management. Current yield forecasting systems are generally deterministic in nature and provide no information about the uncertainty bounds on their output. To improve on this situation we present an ensemble-based approach where uncertainty bounds can be derived from the dispersion of results in the ensemble. The probabilistic information provided by this ensemble-based system can be used to quantify uncertainties (risk) on regional crop yield forecasts and can therefore be an important support to quantitative risk analysis in a decision making process.

Development of a comprehensive urban commodity/freight movement model for Texas.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

The Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) developed the Texas Statewide Analysis Model (SAM) to provide analysis and : forecasting capabilities of passenger and commodity/freight movements in Texas. The SAM provides data and results at a level :...

Notes for Brazil sampling frame evaluation trip

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horvath, R. (Principal Investigator); Hicks, D. R. (Compiler)

1981-01-01

Field notes describing a trip conducted in Brazil are presented. This trip was conducted for the purpose of evaluating a sample frame developed using LANDSAT full frame images by the USDA Economic and Statistics Service for the eventual purpose of cropland production estimation with LANDSAT by the Foreign Commodity Production Forecasting Project of the AgRISTARS program. Six areas were analyzed on the basis of land use, crop land in corn and soybean, field size and soil type. The analysis indicated generally successful use of LANDSAT images for purposes of remote large area land use stratification.

AgRISTARS: Foreign commodity production forecasting. Country summary report, Australia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henninger, D. L.; Reed, C. R. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

Australia is one of the world's major growers and exporters of wheat and as such is one of the countries of interest in the AgRISTARS program which endeavors to develop technology to estimate crop production using aerospace remote sensing. A compilation of geographic, political, and agricultural information on Australia is presented. Also included is a summary of the aerospace remote sensing, meteorological, and ground-observed data which were collected with respect to Australia, as well as a summary of contacts between AgRISTARS and Australia personnel.

Gravity models of forest products trade: applications to forecasting and policy analysis

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno

2016-01-01

To predict the value of trade between countries, a differential gravity model of bilateral trade flowswas formulated and estimated with panel data from 2005 to 2014 for each of the commodity groups HS44 (wood and articles of wood), HS47 (pulp of wood, fibrous cellulosic material) and HS48 (paper and paperboard). The parameters were estimated with a large database by...

Urban commodity flow data collection and analysis using global positioning systems

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-05-01

The Urban Commodity Flow Data Collection and Analysis project is a joint effort between : Oregon State University (OSU) and the City of Portland, Oregon Travel Forecasting Group (Port : of Portland and Portland Metro). The broad objective of this pro...

Analysis of scanner data for crop inventories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horvath, R. (Principal Investigator); Cicone, R. C.; Kauth, R. J.; Malila, W. A.; Pont, W.; Thelen, B.; Sellman, A.

1981-01-01

Accomplishments for a machine-oriented small grains labeler T&E, and for Argentina ground data collection are reported. Features of the small grains labeler include temporal-spectral profiles, which characterize continuous patterns of crop spectral development, and crop calendar shift estimation, which adjusts for planting date differences of fields within a crop type. Corn and soybean classification technology development for area estimation for foreign commodity production forecasting is reported. Presentations supporting quarterly project management reviews and a quarterly technical interchange meeting are also included.

Time series analysis of gold production in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muda, Nora; Hoon, Lee Yuen

2012-05-01

Gold is a soft, malleable, bright yellow metallic element and unaffected by air or most reagents. It is highly valued as an asset or investment commodity and is extensively used in jewellery, industrial application, dentistry and medical applications. In Malaysia, gold mining is limited in several areas such as Pahang, Kelantan, Terengganu, Johor and Sarawak. The main purpose of this case study is to obtain a suitable model for the production of gold in Malaysia. The model can also be used to predict the data of Malaysia's gold production in the future. Box-Jenkins time series method was used to perform time series analysis with the following steps: identification, estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting. In addition, the accuracy of prediction is tested using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). From the analysis, the ARIMA (3,1,1) model was found to be the best fitted model with MAPE equals to 3.704%, indicating the prediction is very accurate. Hence, this model can be used for forecasting. This study is expected to help the private and public sectors to understand the gold production scenario and later plan the gold mining activities in Malaysia.

The development of a model and decision support system to use in forecasting truck freight flow in the continental United States

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

This research develops a regression-based model for forecasting truck borne freight in the continental United States. This model is capable of predicting freight commodity flow information via trucks to assist transportation planners who wish to unde...

The Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment /LACIE/ - A summary of three years' experience

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erb, R. B.; Moore, B. H.

1979-01-01

Aims, history and schedule of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) conducted by NASA, USDA and NOAA from 1974-1977 are described. The LACIE experiment designed to research, develop, apply and evaluate a technology to monitor wheat production in important regions throughout the world (U.S., Canada, USSR, Brasil) utilized quantitative multispectral data collected by Landsat in concert with current weather data and historical information. The experiment successfully exploited computer data and mathematical models to extract timely corp information. A follow-on activities for the early 1980's is planned focusing especially on the early warning of changes affecting production and quality of renewable resources and commodity production forecast.

A generalized approach to wheat yield forecasting using earth observations: Data considerations, application and relevance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker-Reshef, Inbal

In recent years there has been a dramatic increase in the demand for timely, comprehensive global agricultural intelligence. The issue of food security has rapidly risen to the top of government agendas around the world as the recent lack of food access led to unprecedented food prices, hunger, poverty, and civil conflict. Timely information on global crop production is indispensable for combating the growing stress on the world's crop production, for stabilizing food prices, developing effective agricultural policies, and for coordinating responses to regional food shortages. Earth Observations (EO) data offer a practical means for generating such information as they provide global, timely, cost-effective, and synoptic information on crop condition and distribution. Their utility for crop production forecasting has long been recognized and demonstrated across a wide range of scales and geographic regions. Nevertheless it is widely acknowledged that EO data could be better utilized within the operational monitoring systems and thus there is a critical need for research focused on developing practical robust methods for agricultural monitoring. Within this context this dissertation focused on advancing EO-based methods for crop yield forecasting and on demonstrating the potential relevance for adopting EO-based crop forecasts for providing timely reliable agricultural intelligence. This thesis made contributions to this field by developing and testing a robust EO-based method for wheat production forecasting at state to national scales using available and easily accessible data. The model was developed in Kansas (KS) using coarse resolution normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series data in conjunction with out-of-season wheat masks and was directly applied in Ukraine to assess its transferability. The model estimated yields within 7% in KS and 10% in Ukraine of final estimates 6 weeks prior to harvest. The relevance of adopting such methods to provide timely reliable information to crop commodity markets is demonstrated through a 2010 case study.

Impacts of the Midwestern Drought Forecasts of 2000.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.

2002-10-01

In March of 2000 (and again in April and May) NOAA issued long-range forecasts indicating that an existing Midwestern drought would continue and intensify through the upcoming summer. These forecasts received extensive media coverage and wide public attention. If the drought persisted and intensified during the summer of 2000, significant agricultural and water supply problems would occur. However, in late May, June, and July heavy rains fell throughout most of the Midwest, ending the drought in most areas and revealing that the forecast was incorrect for most of the Midwest. Significant media coverage was devoted to the `failed' forecast, with considerable speculation that major economic hardship had resulted from the forecast. This study assesses the effects of the failed drought forecast on agricultural and water agency actions in the Midwest. Assessment of the agricultural and water management sectors revealed notable commonalities. Most people surveyed were aware of the drought forecasts, and the information sources were diverse. One-third of those surveyed indicated they did nothing as a result of the forecasts. The decisions and actions taken by others as a result of the forecasts provided mixed impacts. The water resource actions such as conserving water, seeking new sources, and convening state drought groups resulted in little cost and were considered to be beneficial. However, in the three areas of agricultural impacts (crop production shifts, crop insurance purchases, and grain market choices), mainly negative outcomes occurred. The 13 March issuance of the forecast was too late for producers to make sizable changes in production practices or to alter insurance coverage greatly, and most forecast-based actions taken in these two areas were considered to be negative but financially minor losses. However, 48% of the 1017 producers sampled altered their normal crop marketing practices, which in 84% of the cases led to sizable losses in revenue. This loss can be extrapolated as $1.1 billion for the entire Midwest if the sample statistics are representative of the region. A common result of the failed drought forecast among its users was a loss of credibility in climate predictions and a reluctance to use them in the future. Credibility is a fragile commodity that is difficult to obtain and is easy to lose.

AgRISTARS: Foreign commodity production forecasting. Corn/soybean decision logic development and testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dailey, C. L.; Abotteen, K. M. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The development and testing of an analysis procedure which was developed to improve the consistency and objectively of crop identification using Landsat data is described. The procedure was developed to identify corn and soybean crops in the U.S. corn belt region. The procedure consists of a series of decision points arranged in a tree-like structure, the branches of which lead an analyst to crop labels. The specific decision logic is designed to maximize the objectively of the identification process and to promote the possibility of future automation. Significant results are summarized.

AgRISTARS: Agriculture and resources inventory surveys through aerospace remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

The major objectives and FY 1980 accomplishments are described of a long term program designed to determine the usefulness, cost, and extent to which aerospace remote sensing data can be integrated into existing or future USDA systems to improve the objectivity, reliability, timeliness, and adequacy of information. A general overview, the primary and participating agencies, and the technical highlights of each of the following projects are presented: early warning/crop condition assessment; foreign commodity production forecasting; yield model development; supporting research; soil moisture; domestic crops and land cover; renewable resources inventory; and conservation and pollution.

Fiscal year 1981 US corn and soybeans pilot preliminary experiment plan, phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Livingston, G. P.; Nedelman, K. S.; Norwood, D. F.; Smith, J. H. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

A draft of the preliminary experiment plan for the foreign commodity production forecasting project fiscal year 1981 is presented. This draft plan includes: definition of the phase 1 and 2 U.S. pilot objectives; the proposed experiment design to evaluate crop calendar, area estimation, and area aggregation components for corn and soybean technologies using 1978/1979 crop-year data; a description of individual sensitivity evaluations of the baseline corn and soybean segment classification procedure; and technology and data assessment in support of the corn and soybean estimation technology for use in the U.S. central corn belt.

Preliminary technical results review of FY81 experiments. Volume 1: Fiscal year 1981/82 spring small grains pilot experiment. [Canada and the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Technical progress made in the foreign commodity production forecasting for the advancement of spring small grains (SSG) area estimation is reported with emphasis on results achieved since the last AgRISTARS level semiannual review. Major objectives and accomplishments are reviewed and the experiment is described. The technical approach data assessment, and data systems used are considered. Results of the group approach comparison study are presented along with preliminary aggregation results for SSG processing procedures. The outlook for the future is assessed.

On the importance of commodity and energy price shocks for the macroeconomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edelstein, Paul S.

Although higher commodity prices are commonly thought to presage higher rates of inflation, the existing literature suggests that the predictive power of commodity prices for inflation has waned since the 1980s. In the first chapter, I show that this result can be overturned using state-of-the-art forecast combination methods. Moreover, commodity prices are shown to contain predictive information not contained in the leading principal components of a broad set of macroeconomic and financial variables. These improved inflation forecasts are of little value, however, for predicting actual Fed policy decisions. The remaining two chapters study the effect of energy price shocks on U.S. consumer and business expenditures. In the second chapter, I show that there is no statistical support for the presence of asymmetries in the response of real consumption to energy price increases and decreases. This finding has important implications for empirical and theoretical models of the transmission of energy price shocks. I then quantify the direct effect on real consumption of (1) unanticipated changes in discretionary income, (2) shifts in precautionary savings, and (3) changes in the operating cost of energy-using durables. Finally, I trace the declining importance of energy price shocks relative to the 1970s to changes in the composition of U.S. automobile production and the declining overall importance of the U.S. automobile sector. An alternative source of asymmetry is the response of nonresidential fixed investment to energy price shocks. In the third chapter, I show that the apparent asymmetry in the estimated responses of business fixed investment in equipment and structures is largely an artifact (1) of the aggregation of mining-related expenditures by the oil, natural gas, and coal mining industry and all other expenditures, and (2) of ignoring an exogenous shift in investment caused by the 1986 Tax Reform Act. Once symmetry is imposed and miningrelated expenditures are excluded, the estimated response of business fixed investment in equipment and structures tends to be small and mostly statistically insignificant. Historical decompositions show that energy price shocks have played a minor role in driving fluctuations in nonresidential fixed investment other than investment in mining.

The development rainfall forecasting using kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulfi, Mohammad; Hasan, Moh.; Dwidja Purnomo, Kosala

2018-04-01

Rainfall forecasting is very interesting for agricultural planing. Rainfall information is useful to make decisions about the plan planting certain commodities. In this studies, the rainfall forecasting by ARIMA and Kalman Filter method. Kalman Filter method is used to declare a time series model of which is shown in the form of linear state space to determine the future forecast. This method used a recursive solution to minimize error. The rainfall data in this research clustered by K-means clustering. Implementation of Kalman Filter method is for modelling and forecasting rainfall in each cluster. We used ARIMA (p,d,q) to construct a state space for KalmanFilter model. So, we have four group of the data and one model in each group. In conclusions, Kalman Filter method is better than ARIMA model for rainfall forecasting in each group. It can be showed from error of Kalman Filter method that smaller than error of ARIMA model.

The economic value of remote sensing of earth resources from space: An ERTS overview and the value of continuity of service. Volume 3: Intensive use of living resources, agriculture. Part 3: The integrated impact of improved (ERS) information on US agricultural commodities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seidel, A. D.

1974-01-01

The economic value of information produced by an assumed operational version of an earth resources survey satellite of the ERTS class is assessed. The theoretical capability of an ERTS system to provide improved agricultural forecasts is analyzed and this analysis is used as a reasonable input to the econometric methods derived by ECON. An econometric investigation into the markets for agricultural commodities is summarized. An overview of the effort including the objectives, scopes, and architecture of the analysis, and the estimation strategy employed is presented. The results and conclusions focus on the economic importance of improved crop forecasts, U.S. exports, and government policy operations. Several promising avenues of further investigation are suggested.

The Influence Of Highway Transportation Infrastructure Condition Toward Commodity Production Generation for The Resilience Needs at Regional Internal Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akbardin, Juang; Parikesit, Danang; Riyanto, Bambang; Mulyono, Agus Taufik

2018-02-01

The poultry commodity consumption and requirement is one of the main commodities that must be fulfilled in a region to maintain the availability of meat from poultry. Poultry commodity production is one of the production sectors that have a clean environment resistance. An increasing of poultry commodity generation production requires a smooth distribution to arrive at the processing. The livestock location as a commodity production is placed at a considerable far distance from residential and market locations. Zones that have poultry commodity production have an excess potential to supply other zones that are lacking in production to the consumption of these commodities. The condition of highway transportation infrastructure that is very diverse with the damage level availability in a zone has an influence in the supply and demand of poultry commodity requirement in the regional internal of Central Java province. In order to know the effect of highway transportation infrastructure condition toward the poultry commodity movement, demography factor and availability of freight vehicles will be reviewed to estimate the amount of poultry commodity movement generation production. Thus the poultry commodity consumption requirement that located in the internal - regional zone of central java province can be adequated from the zone. So it can be minimized the negative impacts that affect the environment at the zone in terms of comparison of the movement attraction and generation production at poultry commodity in Central Java.

AgRISTARS: Foreign commodity production forecasting. The 1980 US corn and soybeans exploratory experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, J. T.; Carnes, J. G. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The U.S. corn and soybeans exploratory experiment is described which consisted of evaluations of two technology components of a production forecasting system: classification procedures (crop labeling and proportion estimation at the level of a sampling unit) and sampling and aggregation procedures. The results from the labeling evaluations indicate that the corn and soybeans labeling procedure works very well in the U.S. corn belt with full season (after tasseling) LANDSAT data. The procedure should be readily adaptable to corn and soybeans labeling required for subsequent exploratory experiments or pilot tests. The machine classification procedures evaluated in this experiment were not effective in improving the proportion estimates. The corn proportions produced by the machine procedures had a large bias when the bias correction was not performed. This bias was caused by the manner in which the machine procedures handled spectrally impure pixels. The simulation test indicated that the weighted aggregation procedure performed quite well. Although further work can be done to improve both the simulation tests and the aggregation procedure, the results of this test show that the procedure should serve as a useful baseline procedure in future exploratory experiments and pilot tests.

Real Time Business Analytics for Buying or Selling Transaction on Commodity Warehouse Receipt System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djatna, Taufik; Teniwut, Wellem A.; Hairiyah, Nina; Marimin

2017-10-01

The requirement for smooth information such as buying and selling is essential for commodity warehouse receipt system such as dried seaweed and their stakeholders to transact for an operational transaction. Transactions of buying or selling a commodity warehouse receipt system are a risky process due to the fluctuations in dynamic commodity prices. An integrated system to determine the condition of the real time was needed to make a decision-making transaction by the owner or prospective buyer. The primary motivation of this study is to propose computational methods to trace market tendency for either buying or selling processes. The empirical results reveal that feature selection gain ratio and k-NN outperforms other forecasting models, implying that the proposed approach is a promising alternative to the stock market tendency of warehouse receipt document exploration with accurate level rate is 95.03%.

Landscape contexts and commonalities: building the LTAR network

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The United States Department of Agriculture has established a Long-Term Agroecosystem Research Network to provide a coordinated framework to, “Enable understanding and forecasting of regional landscape capacities to provide agricultural commodities and ecosystem services under changing conditions.” ...

Towards a Tool for Malaria Supply Chain Management Improvement in Rural Ghana.

PubMed

Carlo, Lorena; Bakken, Suzanne; Mamykina, Lena; Kodie, Richmond; Kanter, Andrew S

2015-01-01

The maintenance of adequate quantities of antimalarial medicines and rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) at health facilities in rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa is a challenging task because of poor supply chain management. Antimalarial stock-outs in the communities could lead patients (that need to travel long distances to get medications) to remain untreated, develop severe malaria and die. A prototype to improve the management of health commodities in rural Ghana through the visualization of current stock levels and the forecasting of commodities is proposed.

17 CFR 210.11-03 - Presentation of financial forecast.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... required by generally accepted accounting principles. Form and Content of Schedules general ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Presentation of financial... FORM AND CONTENT OF AND REQUIREMENTS FOR FINANCIAL STATEMENTS, SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, SECURITIES...

The Transshipment Problem in Travel Forecasting: Preliminary Analysis of the Ontario Commercial Vehicle Survey

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-05-15

Transshipment has large implications for the provision of public infrastructure, and most of the available data on commodity shipments within a single country do not identity any transshipment points along their way. The Ontario Commercial Vehicle Su...

Research needs for developing a commodity-driven freight modeling approach.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-01-01

It is well known that better freight forecasting models and data are needed, but the literature does not clearly indicate which components of the modeling methodology are most in need of improvement, which is a critical need in an era of limited rese...

Linked population and economic models: some methodological issues in forecasting, analysis, and policy optimization.

PubMed

Madden, M; Batey Pwj

1983-05-01

Some problems associated with demographic-economic forecasting include finding models appropriate for a declining economy with unemployment, using a multiregional approach in an interregional model, finding a way to show differential consumption while endogenizing unemployment, and avoiding unemployment inconsistencies. The solution to these problems involves the construction of an activity-commodity framework, locating it within a group of forecasting models, and indicating possible ratios towards dynamization of the framework. The authors demonstrate the range of impact multipliers that can be derived from the framework and show how these multipliers relate to Leontief input-output multipliers. It is shown that desired population distribution may be obtained by selecting instruments from the economic sphere to produce, through the constraints vector of an activity-commodity framework, targets selected from demographic activities. The next step in this process, empirical exploitation, was carried out by the authors in the United Kingdom, linking an input-output model with a wide selection of demographic and demographic-economic variables. The generally tenuous control which government has over any variables in systems of this type, especially in market economies, makes application in the policy field of the optimization approach a partly conjectural exercise, although the analytic capacity of the approach can provide clear indications of policy directions.

Early season monitoring of corn and soybeans with TerraSAR-X and RADARSAT-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNairn, H.; Kross, A.; Lapen, D.; Caves, R.; Shang, J.

2014-05-01

Early and on-going crop production forecasts are important to facilitate food price stability for regions at risk, and for agriculture exporters, to set market value. Most regional and global efforts in forecasting rely on multiple sources of information from the field. With increased access to data from spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), these sensors could contribute information on crop acreage. But these acreage estimates must be available early in the season to assist with production forecasts. This study acquired TerraSAR-X and RADARSAT-2 data over a region in eastern Canada dominated by economically important corn and soybean production. Using a supervised decision tree classifier, results determined that either sensor was capable of delivering highly accurate maps of corn and soybeans at the end of the growing season. Accuracies far exceeded 90%. Spatial and multi-temporal filtering approaches were compared and small improvements in accuracies were found by applying the multi-temporal filter to the RADARSAT-2 data. Of significant interest, this study determined that by using only three TerraSAR-X images corn could be accurately identified by the end of June, a mere six weeks after planting and at a vegetative growth stage (V6 - sixth leaf collar developed). However, soybeans required additional acquisitions given the variance in planting densities and planting dates in this region of Canada. In this case, accurate soybean classification required TerraSAR-X images until early August at the start of the reproductive stage (R5 - seed development is beginning). Also important, by applying a multi-temporal filter accurate mapping (close to 90%) of corn and soybeans from RADARSAT-2 could occur five weeks earlier (by August 19) than if a spatial filter was used. Thus application of this filtering approach could accelerate delivery of a crop inventory for this region of Canada. Corn and soybeans are important commodities both globally and within Canada. This study makes an important contribution as it demonstrates that TerraSAR-X can deliver acreage estimates of these two crops early enough to assist with in-season production forecasting.

Microwave Soil Moisture Retrieval Under Trees Using a Modified Tau-Omega Model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

IPAD is to provide timely and accurate estimates of global crop conditions for use in up-to-date commodity intelligence reports. A crucial requirement of these global crop yield forecasts is the regional characterization of surface and sub-surface soil moisture. However, due to the spatial heterogen...

17 CFR 41.24 - Rule amendments to security futures products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... rule amendment relating to a security futures product if the registered derivatives transaction... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Rule amendments to security futures products. 41.24 Section 41.24 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING...

17 CFR 41.23 - Listing of security futures products for trading.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... security futures products for trading, a designated contract market or registered derivatives transaction... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Listing of security futures products for trading. 41.23 Section 41.23 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING...

17 CFR 40.2 - Listing products for trading by certification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Listing products for trading by certification. 40.2 Section 40.2 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION PROVISIONS COMMON TO REGISTERED ENTITIES § 40.2 Listing products for trading by certification. (a...

17 CFR 40.2 - Listing products for trading by certification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Listing products for trading by certification. 40.2 Section 40.2 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION PROVISIONS COMMON TO REGISTERED ENTITIES § 40.2 Listing products for trading by certification. (a...

17 CFR 40.2 - Listing products for trading by certification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Listing products for trading by certification. 40.2 Section 40.2 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION PROVISIONS COMMON TO REGISTERED ENTITIES § 40.2 Listing products for trading by certification. (a...

Mineral production and mining trends for selected non-fuel commodities in Idaho and Montana, 1905-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, Jeremy C.; Long, Keith R.; Assmus, Kenneth C.; Zientek, Michael L.

2004-01-01

Idaho and Montana state mining statistics were obtained from historical mineral production records and compiled into a continuous record from 1905 through 2001. To facilitate comparisons, the mineral production data were normalized by converting the units of measure to metric tons for all included commodities. These standardized statistical data include production rates for principal non-fuel mineral commodities from both Idaho and Montana, as well as the production rates of similar commodities for the U.S. and the world for contrast. Data are presented here in both tabular and bar chart format. Moreover, the tables of standardized mineral production data are also provided in digital format as, commodity_production.xls. Some significant historical events pertaining to the mining industry are described as well. When taken into account with the historical production data, this combined information may to help explain both specific fluctuations and general tendencies in the overall trends in the rates of mineral resource production over time.

Estimation of within-stratum variance for sample allocation: Foreign commodity production forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chhikara, R. S.; Perry, C. R., Jr. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The problem of determining the stratum variances required for an optimum sample allocation for remotely sensed crop surveys is investigated with emphasis on an approach based on the concept of stratum variance as a function of the sampling unit size. A methodology using the existing and easily available information of historical statistics is developed for obtaining initial estimates of stratum variances. The procedure is applied to variance for wheat in the U.S. Great Plains and is evaluated based on the numerical results obtained. It is shown that the proposed technique is viable and performs satisfactorily with the use of a conservative value (smaller than the expected value) for the field size and with the use of crop statistics from the small political division level.

48 CFR 470.101 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... commodity or product produced in the United States cannot be readily distinguished from a commodity or product not produced in the United States. Department means the Department of Agriculture. Food and... organization means an organization which will receive commodities from the United States Agency for...

17 CFR 41.21 - Requirements for underlying securities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Requirements for underlying securities. 41.21 Section 41.21 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION SECURITY FUTURES PRODUCTS Requirements and Standards for Listing Security Futures Products § 41.21...

12 CFR 613.3200 - International lending.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... commodities or products therefrom, aquatic products, and agricultural supplies into the United States: (1) An... products therefrom, aquatic products, or agricultural supplies from the United States to any foreign... policies that ensure that exports of agricultural products and commodities, aquatic products, and...

Dzhida Ore District: Geology, Structural and Metallogenic Regionalization, Genetic Types of Ore Deposits, Geodynamic Conditions of Their Formation, Forecast, and Outlook for Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordienko, I. V.; Gorokhovsky, D. V.; Smirnova, O. K.; Lantseva, V. S.; Badmatsyrenova, R. A.; Orsoev, D. A.

2018-01-01

Based on complex structural, rheological, and metallogenic studies, taking into account the results of earlier subject-specific, prospecting, mapping, and exploration works, it has been established that the geological structure of the district was caused by the ensimatic evolution of the Vendian-Early Paleozoic Dzhida island-arc system, in which oceanic and island-arc complexes served as a melanocratic basement for Late Paleozoic-Mesozoic active within-plate (riftogenic) processes, which gave rise to the formation of ore deposits and occurrences of strategic mineral commodities (Mo, W, Au, Pt, Ag, and rare elements, including REE). Mantle plumes and flows of deep-seated transmagmatic solutions (ore-forming fluids) played a critical role in these processes, the significance of which increases in upper crustal swarms of dikes and fault systems. The forecasts and development prospects of the Dzhida ore district envisage the expansion of geological prospecting and exploration, scientific research, and technological testing of ore for insight into strategic mineral commodities, as well as reanimation of mining within the areas of the Dzhida's large territorial and industrial complex (TIC) in eastern Siberia.

Hierarchical time series bottom-up approach for forecast the export value in Central Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahkya, D. A.; Ulama, B. S.; Suhartono

2017-10-01

The purpose of this study is Getting the best modeling and predicting the export value of Central Java using a Hierarchical Time Series. The export value is one variable injection in the economy of a country, meaning that if the export value of the country increases, the country’s economy will increase even more. Therefore, it is necessary appropriate modeling to predict the export value especially in Central Java. Export Value in Central Java are grouped into 21 commodities with each commodity has a different pattern. One approach that can be used time series is a hierarchical approach. Hierarchical Time Series is used Buttom-up. To Forecast the individual series at all levels using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN), and Hybrid ARIMA-RBFNN. For the selection of the best models used Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (sMAPE). Results of the analysis showed that for the Export Value of Central Java, Bottom-up approach with Hybrid ARIMA-RBFNN modeling can be used for long-term predictions. As for the short and medium-term predictions, it can be used a bottom-up approach RBFNN modeling. Overall bottom-up approach with RBFNN modeling give the best result.

A Data Driven Network Approach to Rank Countries Production Diversity and Food Specialization

PubMed Central

Tu, Chengyi; Carr, Joel

2016-01-01

The easy access to large data sets has allowed for leveraging methodology in network physics and complexity science to disentangle patterns and processes directly from the data, leading to key insights in the behavior of systems. Here we use country specific food production data to study binary and weighted topological properties of the bipartite country-food production matrix. This country-food production matrix can be: 1) transformed into overlap matrices which embed information regarding shared production of products among countries, and or shared countries for individual products, 2) identify subsets of countries which produce similar commodities or subsets of commodities shared by a given country allowing for visualization of correlations in large networks, and 3) used to rank country fitness (the ability to produce a diverse array of products weighted on the type of food commodities) and food specialization (quantified on the number of countries producing a specific food product weighted on their fitness). Our results show that, on average, countries with high fitness produce both low and high specializion food commodities, whereas nations with low fitness tend to produce a small basket of diverse food products, typically comprised of low specializion food commodities. PMID:27832118

A Data Driven Network Approach to Rank Countries Production Diversity and Food Specialization.

PubMed

Tu, Chengyi; Carr, Joel; Suweis, Samir

2016-01-01

The easy access to large data sets has allowed for leveraging methodology in network physics and complexity science to disentangle patterns and processes directly from the data, leading to key insights in the behavior of systems. Here we use country specific food production data to study binary and weighted topological properties of the bipartite country-food production matrix. This country-food production matrix can be: 1) transformed into overlap matrices which embed information regarding shared production of products among countries, and or shared countries for individual products, 2) identify subsets of countries which produce similar commodities or subsets of commodities shared by a given country allowing for visualization of correlations in large networks, and 3) used to rank country fitness (the ability to produce a diverse array of products weighted on the type of food commodities) and food specialization (quantified on the number of countries producing a specific food product weighted on their fitness). Our results show that, on average, countries with high fitness produce both low and high specializion food commodities, whereas nations with low fitness tend to produce a small basket of diverse food products, typically comprised of low specializion food commodities.

AgRISTARS: Foreign commodity production forecasting. The 1980 US/Canada wheat and barley exploratory experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Payne, R. W. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The crop identification procedures used performed were for spring small grains and are conducive to automation. The performance of the machine processing techniques shows a significant improvement over previously evaluated technology; however, the crop calendars require additional development and refinements prior to integration into automated area estimation technology. The integrated technology is capable of producing accurate and consistent spring small grains proportion estimates. Barley proportion estimation technology was not satisfactorily evaluated because LANDSAT sample segment data was not available for high density barley of primary importance in foreign regions and the low density segments examined were not judged to give indicative or unequvocal results. Generally, the spring small grains technology is ready for evaluation in a pilot experiment focusing on sensitivity analysis to a variety of agricultural and meteorological conditions representative of the global environment.

17 CFR 37.3 - Requirements for underlying commodities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 5a(b)(3) of the Act, may trade any contract of sale of a commodity for future delivery (or option on... that are a security futures product, and the registered derivatives transaction execution facility is a... commodities. 37.3 Section 37.3 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION...

17 CFR 15.03 - Reporting levels.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

...Street products are contracts offered by HedgeStreet, Inc., a designated contract market, that pay up to... Commodity Exchange Act. Security futures product has the same meaning as in section 1a(32) of the Commodity... as follows: Commodity Number of contracts Agricultural: Cocoa 100 Coffee 50 Corn 250 Cotton 100...

Preliminary analysis on hybrid Box-Jenkins - GARCH modeling in forecasting gold price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaziz, Siti Roslindar; Azizan, Noor Azlinna; Ahmad, Maizah Hura; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Agrawal, Manju; Boland, John

2015-02-01

Gold has been regarded as a valuable precious metal and the most popular commodity as a healthy return investment. Hence, the analysis and prediction of gold price become very significant to investors. This study is a preliminary analysis on gold price and its volatility that focuses on the performance of hybrid Box-Jenkins models together with GARCH in analyzing and forecasting gold price. The Box-Cox formula is used as the data transformation method due to its potential best practice in normalizing data, stabilizing variance and reduces heteroscedasticity using 41-year daily gold price data series starting 2nd January 1973. Our study indicates that the proposed hybrid model ARIMA-GARCH with t-innovation can be a new potential approach in forecasting gold price. This finding proves the strength of GARCH in handling volatility in the gold price as well as overcomes the non-linear limitation in the Box-Jenkins modeling.

A world of minerals in your mobile device

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenness, Jane E.; Ober, Joyce A.; Wilkins, Aleeza M.; Gambogi, Joseph

2016-09-15

Mobile phones and other high-technology communications devices could not exist without mineral commodities. More than one-half of all components in a mobile device—including its electronics, display, battery, speakers, and more—are made from mined and semiprocessed materials (mineral commodities). Some mineral commodities can be recovered as byproducts during the production and processing of other commodities. As an example, bauxite is mined for its aluminum content, but gallium is recovered during the aluminum production process. The images show the ore minerals (sources) of some mineral commodities that are used to make components of a mobile device. On the reverse side, the map and table depict the major source countries producing these mineral commodities along with how these commodities are used in mobile devices. For more information on minerals, visit http://minerals.usgs.gov.

17 CFR 41.43 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... options with persons other than brokers, dealers, futures commission merchants, floor brokers, or floor... securities, commodity futures, or commodity options with persons other than brokers, dealers, persons....43 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION SECURITY FUTURES PRODUCTS...

75 FR 54199 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing of a Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-03

... Commission has approved other exchange-traded fund- like products linked to the performance of underlying... (each, an ``Index Commodity'' and, collectively, ``Index Commodities''): Aluminum, cocoa, coffee, copper... products; Group II includes seven Index Commodities which are highly liquid; Group III is comprised of four...

17 CFR 39.4 - Procedures for implementing derivatives clearing organization rules and clearing new products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Procedures for implementing derivatives clearing organization rules and clearing new products. 39.4 Section 39.4 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION DERIVATIVES CLEARING ORGANIZATIONS § 39.4 Procedures for...

17 CFR 41.23 - Listing of security futures products for trading.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... products for trading. 41.23 Section 41.23 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... Products § 41.23 Listing of security futures products for trading. (a) Initial listing of products for trading. To list new security futures products for trading, a designated contract market shall submit to...

17 CFR 41.25 - Additional conditions for trading for security futures products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... trading for security futures products. 41.25 Section 41.25 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION SECURITY FUTURES PRODUCTS Requirements and Standards for Listing Security Futures Products § 41.25 Additional conditions for trading for security futures products. (a) Common...

17 CFR 41.25 - Additional conditions for trading for security futures products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... trading for security futures products. 41.25 Section 41.25 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION SECURITY FUTURES PRODUCTS Requirements and Standards for Listing Security Futures Products § 41.25 Additional conditions for trading for security futures products. (a) Common...

17 CFR 41.25 - Additional conditions for trading for security futures products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... trading for security futures products. 41.25 Section 41.25 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION SECURITY FUTURES PRODUCTS Requirements and Standards for Listing Security Futures Products § 41.25 Additional conditions for trading for security futures products. (a) Common...

17 CFR 41.25 - Additional conditions for trading for security futures products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... trading for security futures products. 41.25 Section 41.25 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION (CONTINUED) SECURITY FUTURES PRODUCTS Requirements and Standards for Listing Security Futures Products § 41.25 Additional conditions for trading for security futures products. (a...

Agricultural Productivity Forecasts for Improved Drought Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Limaye, Ashutosh; McNider, Richard; Moss, Donald; Alhamdan, Mohammad

2010-01-01

Water stresses on agricultural crops during critical phases of crop phenology (such as grain filling) has higher impact on the eventual yield than at other times of crop growth. Therefore farmers are more concerned about water stresses in the context of crop phenology than the meteorological droughts. However the drought estimates currently produced do not account for the crop phenology. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a drought monitoring decision support tool: The U.S. Drought Monitor, which currently uses meteorological droughts to delineate and categorize drought severity. Output from the Drought Monitor is used by the States to make disaster declarations. More importantly, USDA uses the Drought Monitor to make estimates of crop yield to help the commodities market. Accurate estimation of corn yield is especially critical given the recent trend towards diversion of corn to produce ethanol. Ethanol is fast becoming a standard 10% ethanol additive to petroleum products, the largest traded commodity. Thus the impact of large-scale drought will have dramatic impact on the petroleum prices as well as on food prices. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as a focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. WAOB depends on Drought Monitor and has emphatically stated that accurate and timely data are needed in operational agrometeorological services to generate reliable projections for agricultural decision makers. Thus, improvements in the prediction of drought will reflect in early and accurate assessment of crop yields, which in turn will improve commodity projections. We have developed a drought assessment tool, which accounts for the water stress in the context of crop phenology. The crop modeling component is done using various crop modules within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). DSSAT is an agricultural crop simulation system, which integrates the effects of soil, crop phenotype, weather, and management options. It has been in use for more than 15 years by researchers, growers and has become a de-facto standard in crop modeling communities spanning over 100 countries. The meteorological forcings to DSSAT are provided by NASA s National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) datasets. NLDAS is a framework that incorporates atmospheric forcing and land parameter values along with land surface models to diagnose and predict the state of the land surface.

On the dynamics of the world demographic transition and financial-economic crises forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akaev, A.; Sadovnichy, V.; Korotayev, A.

2012-05-01

The article considers dynamic processes involving non-linear power-law behavior in such apparently diverse spheres, as demographic dynamics and dynamics of prices of highly liquid commodities such as oil and gold. All the respective variables exhibit features of explosive growth containing precursors indicating approaching phase transitions/catastrophes/crises. The first part of the article analyzes mathematical models of demographic dynamics that describe various scenarios of demographic development in the post-phase-transition period, including a model that takes the limitedness of the Earth carrying capacity into account. This model points to a critical point in the early 2050s, when the world population, after reaching its maximum value may decrease afterward stabilizing then at a certain stationary level. The article presents an analysis of the influence of the demographic transition (directly connected with the hyperexponential growth of the world population) on the global socioeconomic and geopolitical development. The second part deals with the phenomenon of explosive growth of prices of such highly liquid commodities as oil and gold. It is demonstrated that at present the respective processes could be regarded as precursors of waves of the global financial-economic crisis that will demand the change of the current global economic and political system. It is also shown that the moments of the start of the first and second waves of the current global crisis could have been forecasted with a model of accelerating log-periodic fluctuations superimposed over a power-law trend with a finite singularity developed by Didier Sornette and collaborators. With respect to the oil prices, it is shown that it was possible to forecast the 2008 crisis with a precision up to a month already in 2007. The gold price dynamics was used to calculate the possible time of the start of the second wave of the global crisis (July-August 2011); note that this forecast has turned out to be quite correct.

United States trade in forest products, 1978 To 1987.

Treesearch

John T. Chmelik; David J. Brooks; Richard W. Haynes

1989-01-01

Tables summarize volume and unit value of United States trade in forest products. Import and export data are shown for 18 groups of commodities aggregated from 800 individual commodity items; original data were collected and reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Data given for each commodity group include detail on trading partners and information on shipments...

17 CFR 41.23 - Listing of security futures products for trading.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... products for trading. 41.23 Section 41.23 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... Listing of security futures products for trading. (a) Initial listing of products for trading. To list new security futures products for trading, a designated contract market or registered derivatives transaction...

17 CFR 41.23 - Listing of security futures products for trading.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... products for trading. 41.23 Section 41.23 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... Listing of security futures products for trading. (a) Initial listing of products for trading. To list new security futures products for trading, a designated contract market shall submit to the Commission at its...

17 CFR 41.23 - Listing of security futures products for trading.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... products for trading. 41.23 Section 41.23 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... Listing of security futures products for trading. (a) Initial listing of products for trading. To list new security futures products for trading, a designated contract market or registered derivatives transaction...

17 CFR 229.1204 - (Item 1204) Oil and gas production, production prices and production costs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false (Item 1204) Oil and gas production, production prices and production costs. 229.1204 Section 229.1204 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION STANDARD INSTRUCTIONS FOR FILING FORMS UNDER SECURITIES ACT OF...

7 CFR 17.2 - Definition of terms.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Office of the Secretary of Agriculture SALES OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES MADE AVAILABLE UNDER TITLE I OF... in the second legal entity. CCC. The Commodity Credit Corporation, USDA. Commodity. An agricultural commodity produced in the United States, or product thereof produced in the United States, as specified in...

Users manual for the US baseline corn and soybean segment classification procedure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horvath, R.; Colwell, R. (Principal Investigator); Hay, C.; Metzler, M.; Mykolenko, O.; Odenweller, J.; Rice, D.

1981-01-01

A user's manual for the classification component of the FY-81 U.S. Corn and Soybean Pilot Experiment in the Foreign Commodity Production Forecasting Project of AgRISTARS is presented. This experiment is one of several major experiments in AgRISTARS designed to measure and advance the remote sensing technologies for cropland inventory. The classification procedure discussed is designed to produce segment proportion estimates for corn and soybeans in the U.S. Corn Belt (Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois) using LANDSAT data. The estimates are produced by an integrated Analyst/Machine procedure. The Analyst selects acquisitions, participates in stratification, and assigns crop labels to selected samples. In concert with the Analyst, the machine digitally preprocesses LANDSAT data to remove external effects, stratifies the data into field like units and into spectrally similar groups, statistically samples the data for Analyst labeling, and combines the labeled samples into a final estimate.

Something fishy: Chile's blue revolution, commodity diseases, and the problem of sustainability.

PubMed

Soluri, John

2011-01-01

The United Nations describes aquaculture as the fastest-growing method of food production, and some industry boosters have heralded the coming of a sustainable blue revolution. This article interprets the meteoric rise and sudden collapse of Atlantic salmon aquaculture in southern Chile (1980-2010) by integrating concepts from commodity studies and comparative environmental history. I juxtapose salmon aquaculture to twentieth-century export banana production to reveal the similar dynamics that give rise to "commodity diseases"—events caused by the entanglement of biological, social, and political-economic processes that operate on local, regional, and transoceanic geographical scales. Unsurprisingly, the risks and burdens associated with commodity diseases are borne disproportionately by production workers and residents in localities where commodity disease events occur. Chile's blue revolution suggests that evaluating the sustainability of aquaculture in Latin America cannot be divorced from processes of accumulation.

Transgenic Hybrid Poplar for Sustainable and Scalable Production of the Commodity/Specialty Chemical, 2-Phenylethanol

PubMed Central

Costa, Michael A.; Marques, Joaquim V.; Dalisay, Doralyn S.; Herman, Barrington; Bedgar, Diana L.; Davin, Laurence B.; Lewis, Norman G.

2013-01-01

Fast growing hybrid poplar offers the means for sustainable production of specialty and commodity chemicals, in addition to rapid biomass production for lignocellulosic deconstruction. Herein we describe transformation of fast-growing transgenic hybrid poplar lines to produce 2-phenylethanol, this being an important fragrance, flavor, aroma, and commodity chemical. It is also readily converted into styrene or ethyl benzene, the latter being an important commodity aviation fuel component. Introducing this biochemical pathway into hybrid poplars marks the beginnings of developing a platform for a sustainable chemical delivery system to afford this and other valuable specialty/commodity chemicals at the scale and cost needed. These modified plant lines mainly sequester 2-phenylethanol via carbohydrate and other covalently linked derivatives, thereby providing an additional advantage of effective storage until needed. The future potential of this technology is discussed. MALDI metabolite tissue imaging also established localization of these metabolites in the leaf vasculature. PMID:24386157

Effects of Regulation and Technology on End Uses of Nonfuel Mineral Commodities in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matos, Grecia R.

2007-01-01

The regulatory system and advancement of technologies have shaped the end-use patterns of nonfuel minerals used in the United States. These factors affected the quantities and types of materials used by society. Environmental concerns and awareness of possible negative effects on public health prompted numerous regulations that have dramatically altered the use of commodities like arsenic, asbestos, lead, and mercury. While the selected commodities represent only a small portion of overall U.S. materials use, they have the potential for harmful effects on human health or the environment, which other commodities, like construction aggregates, do not normally have. The advancement of technology allowed for new uses of mineral materials in products like high-performance computers, telecommunications equipment, plasma and liquid-crystal display televisions and computer monitors, mobile telephones, and electronic devices, which have become mainstream products. These technologies altered the end-use pattern of mineral commodities like gallium, germanium, indium, and strontium. Human ingenuity and people?s demand for different and creative services increase the demand for new materials and industries while shifting the pattern of use of mineral commodities. The mineral commodities? end-use data are critical for the understanding of the magnitude and character of these flows, assessing their impact on the environment, and providing an early warning of potential problems in waste management of products containing these commodities. The knowledge of final disposition of the mineral commodity allows better decisions as to how regulation should be tailored.

31 CFR 538.525 - Payment for and financing of commercial sales of agricultural commodities, medicine, and medical...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... commercial sales of agricultural commodities, medicine, and medical equipment. 538.525 Section 538.525 Money... commodities, medicine, and medical equipment. (a) General license for payment terms. The following payment terms for sales, pursuant to § 538.523(a)(1), of agricultural commodities and products, medicine, and...

31 CFR 560.532 - Payment for and financing of exports and reexports of agricultural commodities, medicine, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... and reexports of agricultural commodities, medicine, and medical devices. 560.532 Section 560.532... commodities, medicine, and medical devices. (a) General license for payment terms. The following payment terms for sales of agricultural commodities and products, medicine, and medical equipment pursuant to §§ 560...

31 CFR 560.532 - Payment for and financing of exports and reexports of agricultural commodities, medicine, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... and reexports of agricultural commodities, medicine, and medical devices. 560.532 Section 560.532... commodities, medicine, and medical devices. (a) General license for payment terms. The following payment terms for sales of agricultural commodities and products, medicine, and medical equipment pursuant to §§ 560...

31 CFR 538.525 - Payment for and financing of commercial sales of agricultural commodities, medicine, and medical...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... commercial sales of agricultural commodities, medicine, and medical equipment. 538.525 Section 538.525 Money... commodities, medicine, and medical equipment. (a) General license for payment terms. The following payment terms for sales, pursuant to § 538.523(a)(1), of agricultural commodities and products, medicine, and...

Evaluation of pesticide residue dynamics in Chinese cabbage, head cabbage and cauliflower.

PubMed

Kocourek, František; Stará, Jitka; Holý, Kamil; Horská, Tereza; Kocourek, Vladimír; Kováčová, Jana; Kohoutková, Jana; Suchanová, Marie; Hajšlová, Jana

2017-06-01

Pesticide residues from the time of application until harvest were analysed for 20, 17 and 18 active insecticidal and fungicidal substances in Chinese cabbage, head cabbage and cauliflower, respectively. In total, 40 mathematical models of residue degradation were developed using a first-order kinetic equation, and from these models it was possible to forecast the action pre-harvest interval for a given action threshold for low-residue production in Brassica vegetables as a percentage of the maximum residue level. Additionally, it was possible to establish an action pre-harvest interval based on an action threshold of 0.01 mg kg ‒1 for the production of Brassica vegetables for baby food. Among the evaluated commodities, the speed of residue degradation was highest in head cabbage, medium in Chinese cabbage and lowest in cauliflower. The half-lives of pesticide in various vegetables were also determined: they ranged from 1.55 to 5.25 days in Chinese cabbage, from 0.47 to 6.54 days in head cabbage and from 1.88 to 7.22 days in cauliflower.

CLUSTERS OF TASKS PERFORMED BY WASHINGTON STATE FARM OPERATORS ENGAGED IN SEVEN TYPES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION--GRAIN, DAIRY, FORESTRY, LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, HORTICULTURE, AND GENERAL FARMING. REPORT NO. 27.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

LONG, GILBERT A.

THE OBJECTIVE OF THIS STUDY WAS TO OBTAIN UP-TO-DATE FACTS ABOUT CLUSTERS OF TASKS PERFORMED BY WASHINGTON STATE FARM OPERATORS ENGAGED PRIMARILY IN PRODUCING GRAIN, LIVESTOCK, DAIRY COMMODITIES, POULTRY, FOREST PRODUCTS, HORTICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AND GENERAL FARMING COMMODITIES. FROM A RANDOM SAMPLE OF 267 FARMERS REPRESENTING THOSE CATEGORIES…

29 CFR 780.115 - Forest products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Agricultural Or Horticultural Commodities § 780.115 Forest products. Trees grown in forests and the lumber derived therefrom are not “agricultural or horticultural commodities.” Christmas trees, whether wild or..., and harvesting of such trees or timber products is not sufficient to bring an employee within section...

29 CFR 780.115 - Forest products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Agricultural Or Horticultural Commodities § 780.115 Forest products. Trees grown in forests and the lumber derived therefrom are not “agricultural or horticultural commodities.” Christmas trees, whether wild or..., and harvesting of such trees or timber products is not sufficient to bring an employee within section...

Fatty acid profile of alternative feedstocks for biodiesel production and implications for fuel properties

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Feedstock accounts for approximately 80% of biodiesel production expenses when commodity lipids such as soybean oil are utilized. Furthermore, commodity lipids have competing food-related applications. Consequently, low-cost alternatives that do not displace existing food production are of interest ...

Recent history and geography of virtual water trade.

PubMed

Carr, Joel A; D'Odorico, Paolo; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2013-01-01

The global trade of goods is associated with a virtual transfer of the water required for their production. The way changes in trade affect the virtual redistribution of freshwater resources has been recently documented through the analysis of the virtual water network. It is, however, unclear how these changes are contributed by different types of products and regions of the world. Here we show how the global patterns of virtual water transport are contributed by the trade of different commodity types, including plant, animal, luxury (e.g., coffee, tea, and alcohol), and other products. Major contributors to the virtual water network exhibit different trade patterns with regard to these commodity types. The net importers rely on the supply of virtual water from a small percentage of the global population. However, discrepancies exist among the different commodity networks. While the total virtual water flux through the network has increased between 1986 and 2010, the proportions associated with the four commodity groups have remained relatively stable. However, some of the major players have shown significant changes in the virtual water imports and exports associated with those commodity groups. For instance, China has switched from being a net exporter of virtual water associated with other products (non-edible plant and animal products typically used for manufacturing) to being the largest importer, accounting for 31% of the total water virtually transported with these products. Conversely, in the case of The United states of America, the commodity proportions have remained overall unchanged throughout the study period: the virtual water exports from The United States of America are dominated by plant products, whereas the imports are comprised mainly of animal and luxury products.

Recent History and Geography of Virtual Water Trade

PubMed Central

Carr, Joel A.; D’Odorico, Paolo; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2013-01-01

The global trade of goods is associated with a virtual transfer of the water required for their production. The way changes in trade affect the virtual redistribution of freshwater resources has been recently documented through the analysis of the virtual water network. It is, however, unclear how these changes are contributed by different types of products and regions of the world. Here we show how the global patterns of virtual water transport are contributed by the trade of different commodity types, including plant, animal, luxury (e.g., coffee, tea, and alcohol), and other products. Major contributors to the virtual water network exhibit different trade patterns with regard to these commodity types. The net importers rely on the supply of virtual water from a small percentage of the global population. However, discrepancies exist among the different commodity networks. While the total virtual water flux through the network has increased between 1986 and 2010, the proportions associated with the four commodity groups have remained relatively stable. However, some of the major players have shown significant changes in the virtual water imports and exports associated with those commodity groups. For instance, China has switched from being a net exporter of virtual water associated with other products (non-edible plant and animal products typically used for manufacturing) to being the largest importer, accounting for 31% of the total water virtually transported with these products. Conversely, in the case of The United states of America, the commodity proportions have remained overall unchanged throughout the study period: the virtual water exports from The United States of America are dominated by plant products, whereas the imports are comprised mainly of animal and luxury products. PMID:23457481

National Freight Demand Modeling - Bridging the Gap between Freight Flow Statistics and U.S. Economic Patterns

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, Shih-Miao; Hwang, Ho-Ling

2007-01-01

This paper describes a development of national freight demand models for 27 industry sectors covered by the 2002 Commodity Flow Survey. It postulates that the national freight demands are consistent with U.S. business patterns. Furthermore, the study hypothesizes that the flow of goods, which make up the national production processes of industries, is coherent with the information described in the 2002 Annual Input-Output Accounts developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The model estimation framework hinges largely on the assumption that a relatively simple relationship exists between freight production/consumption and business patterns for each industry defined by the three-digit Northmore » American Industry Classification System industry codes (NAICS). The national freight demand model for each selected industry sector consists of two models; a freight generation model and a freight attraction model. Thus, a total of 54 simple regression models were estimated under this study. Preliminary results indicated promising freight generation and freight attraction models. Among all models, only four of them had a R2 value lower than 0.70. With additional modeling efforts, these freight demand models could be enhanced to allow transportation analysts to assess regional economic impacts associated with temporary lost of transportation services on U.S. transportation network infrastructures. Using such freight demand models and available U.S. business forecasts, future national freight demands could be forecasted within certain degrees of accuracy. These freight demand models could also enable transportation analysts to further disaggregate the CFS state-level origin-destination tables to county or zip code level.« less

29 CFR 780.115 - Forest products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... Agricultural Or Horticultural Commodities § 780.115 Forest products. Trees grown in forests and the lumber derived therefrom are not “agricultural or horticultural commodities.” Christmas trees, whether wild or... 29 Labor 3 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Forest products. 780.115 Section 780.115 Labor Regulations...

29 CFR 780.115 - Forest products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Agricultural Or Horticultural Commodities § 780.115 Forest products. Trees grown in forests and the lumber derived therefrom are not “agricultural or horticultural commodities.” Christmas trees, whether wild or... 29 Labor 3 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Forest products. 780.115 Section 780.115 Labor Regulations...

29 CFR 780.115 - Forest products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Agricultural Or Horticultural Commodities § 780.115 Forest products. Trees grown in forests and the lumber derived therefrom are not “agricultural or horticultural commodities.” Christmas trees, whether wild or... 29 Labor 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Forest products. 780.115 Section 780.115 Labor Regulations...

17 CFR 39.4 - Procedures for implementing derivatives clearing organization rules and clearing new products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... derivatives clearing organization rules and clearing new products. 39.4 Section 39.4 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION DERIVATIVES CLEARING ORGANIZATIONS § 39.4 Procedures for implementing derivatives clearing organization rules and clearing new products. (a) Request for approval of...

7 CFR 1493.440 - Certification requirements for payment guarantee.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... complies with applicable United States law; (c) If the agricultural commodity is vegetable oil or a vegetable oil product, that none of the agricultural commodity or product has been or will be used as a...

7 CFR 1493.440 - Certification requirements for payment guarantee.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... complies with applicable United States law; (c) If the agricultural commodity is vegetable oil or a vegetable oil product, that none of the agricultural commodity or product has been or will be used as a...

Determining economic benefits of satellite data in short-range forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suchman, D.; Auvine, B.; Hinton, B.

1981-01-01

The chances of enhanced short term weather predictions and economic benefits from the use of GOES satellite data were examined. Results for a meteorological consulting firm before and after the introduction of GOES data were chosen as the method, and monetary benefits were selected as the measure. Services were provided for use by road and street departments, commodities dealers, and marine clients of the consulting firm. The Man-computer Interactive Data Access Program (McIDAS) was employed to furnish 1/2 hour visual or IR imagery for remote access. The commodities clients reconnected the GOES real-time imagery once the study was completed, while the consulting firm, which was personnel and not equipment intensive, did not. Further development of the flexibility of access to the GOES data and improvements in the projected grids are indicated.

United States benefits of improved worldwide wheat crop information from a LANDSAT system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heiss, K. P.; Sand, F.; Seidel, A.; Warner, D.; Sheflin, N.; Bhattacharyya, R.; Andrews, J.

1975-01-01

The value of worldwide information improvements on wheat crops, promised by LANDSAT, is measured in the context of world wheat markets. These benefits are based on current LANDSAT technical goals and assume that information is made available to all (United States and other countries) at the same time. A detailed empirical sample demonstration of the effect of improved information is given; the history of wheat commodity prices for 1971-72 is reconstructed and the price changes from improved vs. historical information are compared. The improved crop forecasting from a LANDSAT system assumed include wheat crop estimates of 90 percent accuracy for each major wheat producing region. Accurate, objective worldwide wheat crop information using space systems may have a very stabilizing influence on world commodity markets, in part making possible the establishment of long-term, stable trade relationships.

17 CFR 41.22 - Required certifications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Section 41.22 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION SECURITY FUTURES PRODUCTS Requirements and Standards for Listing Security Futures Products § 41.22 Required certifications. It shall be unlawful for a designated contract market or registered derivatives transaction execution...

Critical mineral resources of the United States—An introduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schulz, Klaus J.; DeYoung, John H.; Seal, Robert R.; Bradley, Dwight C.; Schulz, Klaus J.; DeYoung,, John H.; Seal, Robert R.; Bradley, Dwight C.

2017-12-19

Many changes have taken place in the mineral resource sector since the publication by the U.S. Geological Survey of Professional Paper 820, “United States Mineral Resources,” which is a review of the long-term United States resource position for 65 mineral commodities or commodity groups. For example, since 1973, the United States has continued to become increasingly dependent on imports to meet its demands for an increasing number of mineral commodities. The global demand for mineral commodities is at an alltime high and is expected to continue to increase, and the development of new technologies and products has led to the use of a greater number of mineral commodities in increasing quantities to the point that, today, essentially all naturally occurring elements have several significant industrial uses. Although most mineral commodities are present in sufficient amounts in the earth to provide adequate supplies for many years to come, their availability can be affected by such factors as social constraints, politics, laws, environmental regulations, land-use restrictions, economics, and infrastructure.This volume presents updated reviews of 23 mineral commodities and commodity groups viewed as critical to a broad range of existing and emerging technologies, renewable energy, and national security. The commodities or commodity groups included are antimony, barite, beryllium, cobalt, fluorine, gallium, germanium, graphite, hafnium, indium, lithium, manganese, niobium, platinum-group elements, rare-earth elements, rhenium, selenium, tantalum, tellurium, tin, titanium, vanadium, and zirconium. All these commodities have been listed as critical and (or) strategic in one or more of the recent studies based on assessed likelihood of supply interruption and the possible cost of such a disruption to the assessor. For some of the minerals, current production is limited to only one or a few countries. For many, the United States currently has no mine production or any significant identified resources and is largely dependent on imports to meet its needs. As a result, the emphasis in this volume is on the global distribution and availability of each mineral commodity. The environmental issues related to production of each mineral commodity, including current mitigation and remediation approaches to deal with these challenges, are also addressed.This introductory chapter provides an overview of the mineral resource classifications, terms, and definitions used in this volume. A review of the history of the use and meaning of the term “critical” minerals (or materials) is included as an appendix to the chapter.

From Commodity Production to Sign Production: A Triple Triangle Model for Marx's Semiotics and Peirce's Economics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Joohoan

Using the viewpoint of semiotics, this paper "re-reads" Karl Marx's labor theory of value and suggests a "triple triangle" model for commodity production and shows how this model could be a model for semiosis in general. The paper argues that there are three advantages to considering homogeneity of the sign production and the…

Modelling of cayenne production in Central Java using ARIMA-GARCH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarno; Sudarno; Ispriyanti, Dwi; Suparti

2018-05-01

Some regencies/cities in Central Java Province are known as producers of horticultural crops in Indonesia, for example, Brebes which is the largest area of shallot producer in Central Java, while the others, such as Cilacap and Wonosobo are the areas of cayenne commodities production. Currently, cayenne is a strategic commodity and it has broad impact to Indonesian economic development. Modelling the cayenne production is necessary to predict about the commodity to meet the need for society. The needs fulfillment of society will affect stability of the concerned commodity price. Based on the reality, the decreasing of cayenne production will cause the increasing of society’s basic needs price, and finally it will affect the inflation level at that area. This research focused on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling by considering the effect of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) to study about cayenne production in Central Java. The result of empirical study of ARIMA-GARCH modelling for cayenne production in Central Java from January 2003 to November 2015 is ARIMA([1,3],0,0)-GARCH(1,0) as the best model.

Strategic contracting practices to improve procurement of health commodities

PubMed Central

Arney, Leslie; Yadav, Prashant; Miller, Roger; Wilkerson, Taylor

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT Public-sector entities responsible for procurement of essential medicines and health commodities in developing countries often lack the technical capacity to efficiently ensure supply security. Under strict public scrutiny and pressures to be transparent, many agencies continue to use archaic procurement methods and to depend on inflexible forecasts and cumbersome tendering processes. On the basis of semi-structured literature reviews and interviews, we identified framework agreements as a strategic procurement practice used by the U.S. federal government that may also be suitable for global health supply chains. Framework agreements are long-term contracts that provide the terms and conditions under which smaller repeat purchasing orders may be issued for a defined period of time. Such agreements are common in U.S. and United Nations procurement systems and in other developed countries and multilateral organizations. In contrast, framework agreements appear to be seldom used in procurement of health commodities in countries of sub-Saharan Africa. The current practice of floating tenders multiple times a year contributes to long lead times and stock-outs, and it hampers the manufacturer's or supplier's ability to plan and respond to the government's needs. To date, government's use of strategic contracting practices in public procurement of health commodities has not received much attention in most developing countries. It may present an opportunity for substantial improvements in procurement efficiency and commodity availability. Enabling legislation and strengthened technical capacity to develop and manage long-term contracts could facilitate the use of framework contracts in sub-Saharan Africa, with improved supply security and cost savings likely to result. PMID:25276589

Strategic contracting practices to improve procurement of health commodities.

PubMed

Arney, Leslie; Yadav, Prashant; Miller, Roger; Wilkerson, Taylor

2014-08-01

Public-sector entities responsible for procurement of essential medicines and health commodities in developing countries often lack the technical capacity to efficiently ensure supply security. Under strict public scrutiny and pressures to be transparent, many agencies continue to use archaic procurement methods and to depend on inflexible forecasts and cumbersome tendering processes. On the basis of semi-structured literature reviews and interviews, we identified framework agreements as a strategic procurement practice used by the U.S. federal government that may also be suitable for global health supply chains. Framework agreements are long-term contracts that provide the terms and conditions under which smaller repeat purchasing orders may be issued for a defined period of time. Such agreements are common in U.S. and United Nations procurement systems and in other developed countries and multilateral organizations. In contrast, framework agreements appear to be seldom used in procurement of health commodities in countries of sub-Saharan Africa. The current practice of floating tenders multiple times a year contributes to long lead times and stock-outs, and it hampers the manufacturer's or supplier's ability to plan and respond to the government's needs. To date, government's use of strategic contracting practices in public procurement of health commodities has not received much attention in most developing countries. It may present an opportunity for substantial improvements in procurement efficiency and commodity availability. Enabling legislation and strengthened technical capacity to develop and manage long-term contracts could facilitate the use of framework contracts in sub-Saharan Africa, with improved supply security and cost savings likely to result.

17 CFR 41.2 - Required records.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Required records. 41.2 Section 41.2 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION SECURITY FUTURES PRODUCTS General Provisions § 41.2 Required records. A designated contract market or registered derivatives...

Apparent Consumption vs. Total Consumption--A Lead-Acid Battery Case Study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilburn, David R.; Buckingham, David A.

2006-01-01

Introduction: This report compares estimates of U.S. apparent consumption of lead with estimates of total U.S. consumption of this mineral commodity from a materials flow perspective. The difference, attributed to the amount of lead contained in imported and exported products, was found to be significant for this sector. The study also assesses the effects of including mineral commodities incorporated in manufactured products on the interpretation of observed trends in minerals consumption and trade. Materials flow is a systems approach to understanding what happens to the materials we use from the time a material is extracted, through its processing and manufacturing, to its ultimate disposition. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides accurate and detailed mineral production and mineral commodity consumption statistics that are essential for government, nongovernment organizations, and the public to gain a better understanding of how and where materials are used and their effect on the environment and society. Published statistics on mineral apparent consumption are limited to estimates of consumption of raw material forms (ore, concentrate, and [or] refined metal). For this study, apparent consumption is defined as mine production + secondary refined production + imports (concentrates and refined metal) ? exports (concentrates and refined metal) + adjustments for government and industry stock changes. These estimates do not account for the amount of mineral commodities contained in manufactured products that are imported to the United States, nor do they deduct the amount of these mineral commodities contained in manufactured products that are exported from the United States. When imports or exports of manufactured products contribute significantly to the total use of a particular raw material, an estimate of consumption that does not consider the incorporated forms of these mineral commodities within imported or exported manufactured products can be either under- or overreported (depending on the net trade flow). Factors that influence consumption and trade patterns include variations in industry structure, labor or financial markets, legislation, and technology. As U.S. trade patterns of manufactured products change, omitting mineral commodities incorporated into these goods as part of U.S. mineral commodity consumption estimates may affect the interpretation of observed trends in minerals consumption and trade. Although it may be desirable to include minerals contained in manufactured products as part of consumption estimates, collection and estimation of these data are sometimes difficult. Consumption and trade data for every traded product may not be readily available. Compiling comprehensive consumption statistics for mineral commodities, which have many end uses, each including multiple products, may be time consuming. For these reasons, studies of all mineral commodities are not feasible. Mineral commodity selection for this study is based on data accessibility considerations and the relative importance of lead contained in imported and exported products when considered part of total U.S. lead consumption. Lead was selected for this initial evaluation of total mineral consumption because of the need to understand the consumption pattern of this potentially toxic metal and its compounds, the relative simplicity of this sector?s end-use structure, and the availability of trade data. This study draws upon the findings of an earlier lead consumption study (Biviano and others, 1999) conducted by the USGS for the period 1984 to 1993, but uses a different study methodology for an industry whose structure has changed from that considered in the earlier study. Figure 1 shows the quantity of material contributing to U.S. total consumption of lead metal from domestic and foreign industrial sectors in 2004, based upon trade data reported by the USGS and the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC). For

Estimating statewide truck trips using commodity flows and input-output coefficients

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-04-01

This study uses commodity flows from the 1993 Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) together with Input-Output (I-O) coefficients to generate truck : flows for the state of Wisconsin. Production and attraction rates in tons, for the heavy truck mode only, were...

17 CFR 40.7 - Delegations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Delegations. 40.7 Section 40.7 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION PROVISIONS COMMON TO REGISTERED ENTITIES § 40.7 Delegations. (a) Procedural matters—(1) Review of products or rules. The Commission hereby...

Forecasting jobs in the supply chain for investments in residential energy efficiency retrofits in Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fobair, Richard C., II

This research presents a model for forecasting the numbers of jobs created in the energy efficiency retrofit (EER) supply chain resulting from an investment in upgrading residential buildings in Florida. This investigation examined material supply chains stretching from mining to project installation for three product types: insulation, windows/doors, and heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. Outputs from the model are provided for the project, sales, manufacturing, and mining level. The model utilizes reverse-estimation to forecast the numbers of jobs that result from an investment. Reverse-estimation is a process that deconstructs a total investment into its constituent parts. In this research, an investment is deconstructed into profit, overhead, and hard costs for each level of the supply chain and over multiple iterations of inter-industry exchanges. The model processes an investment amount, the type of work and method of contracting into a prediction of the number of jobs created. The deconstruction process utilizes data from the U.S. Economic Census. At each supply chain level, the cost of labor is reconfigured into full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs (i.e. equivalent to 40 hours per week for 52 weeks) utilizing loaded labor rates and a typical employee mix. The model is sensitive to adjustable variables, such as percentage of work performed per type of product, allocation of worker time per skill level, annual hours for FTE calculations, wage rate, and benefits. This research provides several new insights into job creation. First, it provides definitions that can be used for future research on jobs in supply chains related to energy efficiency. Second, it provides a methodology for future investigators to calculate jobs in a supply chain resulting from an investment in energy efficiency upgrades to a building. The methodology used in this research is unique because it examines gross employment at the sub-industry level for specific commodities. Most research on employment examines the net employment change (job creation less job destruction) at levels for regions, industries, and the aggregate economy. Third, it provides a forecast of the numbers of jobs for an investment in energy efficiency over the entire supply chain for the selected industries and the job factors for major levels of the supply chain.

Scientific assessment of accuracy, skill and reliability of ocean probabilistic forecast products.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, M.; Rowley, C. D.; Barron, C. N.; Hogan, P. J.

2016-02-01

As ocean operational centers are increasingly adopting and generating probabilistic forecast products for their customers with valuable forecast uncertainties, how to assess and measure these complicated probabilistic forecast products objectively is challenging. The first challenge is how to deal with the huge amount of the data from the ensemble forecasts. The second one is how to describe the scientific quality of probabilistic products. In fact, probabilistic forecast accuracy, skills, reliability, resolutions are different attributes of a forecast system. We briefly introduce some of the fundamental metrics such as the Reliability Diagram, Reliability, Resolution, Brier Score (BS), Brier Skill Score (BSS), Ranked Probability Score (RPS), Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS), Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), and Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS). The values and significance of these metrics are demonstrated for the forecasts from the US Navy's regional ensemble system with different ensemble members. The advantages and differences of these metrics are studied and clarified.

Engineering biocatalysts for production of commodity chemicals.

PubMed

Shanmugam, K T; Ingram, L O

2008-01-01

Lignocellulosic biomass is an attractive alternate to petroleum for production of both fuels and commodity chemicals. This conversion of biomass would require a new generation of microbial biocatalysts that can convert all the sugars present in the biomass to the desired compounds. In this review, the critical factors that need to be considered in engineering such microbial biocatalysts for cost-effective fermentation of sugars are discussed with specific emphasis on commodity chemicals such as lactic acid, succinic acid and acetic acid. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Effect of Streamflow Forecast Uncertainty on Real-Time Reservoir Operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, T.; Cai, X.; Yang, D.

2010-12-01

Various hydrological forecast products have been applied to real-time reservoir operation, including deterministic streamflow forecast (DSF), DSF-based probabilistic streamflow forecast (DPSF), and ensemble streamflow forecast (ESF), which represent forecast uncertainty in the form of deterministic forecast error, deterministic forecast error-based uncertainty distribution, and ensemble forecast errors, respectively. Compared to previous studies that treat these forecast products as ad hoc inputs for reservoir operation models, this paper attempts to model the uncertainties involved in the various forecast products and explores their effect on real-time reservoir operation decisions. In hydrology, there are various indices reflecting the magnitude of streamflow forecast uncertainty; meanwhile, few models illustrate the forecast uncertainty evolution process. This research introduces Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE) from supply chain management and justifies its assumptions for quantifying the evolution of uncertainty in streamflow forecast as time progresses. Based on MMFE, this research simulates the evolution of forecast uncertainty in DSF, DPSF, and ESF, and applies the reservoir operation models (dynamic programming, DP; stochastic dynamic programming, SDP; and standard operation policy, SOP) to assess the effect of different forms of forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation. Through a hypothetical single-objective real-time reservoir operation model, the results illustrate that forecast uncertainty exerts significant effects. Reservoir operation efficiency, as measured by a utility function, decreases as the forecast uncertainty increases. Meanwhile, these effects also depend on the type of forecast product being used. In general, the utility of reservoir operation with ESF is nearly as high as the utility obtained with a perfect forecast; the utilities of DSF and DPSF are similar to each other but not as efficient as ESF. Moreover, streamflow variability and reservoir capacity can change the magnitude of the effects of forecast uncertainty, but not the relative merit of DSF, DPSF, and ESF. Schematic diagram of the increase in forecast uncertainty with forecast lead-time and the dynamic updating property of real-time streamflow forecast

7 CFR 1424.4 - General eligibility rules.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... OF AGRICULTURE LOANS, PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS BIOENERGY PROGRAM § 1424.4 General eligibility.... (d) For producers not purchasing raw commodity inputs, the production must equal or exceed that amount of production that would be calculated using the raw commodity inputs and the conversion factor...

Major Risks, Uncertain Outcomes: Making Ensemble Forecasts Work for Multiple Audiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semmens, K. A.; Montz, B.; Carr, R. H.; Maxfield, K.; Ahnert, P.; Shedd, R.; Elliott, J.

2017-12-01

When extreme river levels are possible in a community, effective communication of weather and hydrologic forecasts is critical to protect life and property. Residents, emergency personnel, and water resource managers need to make timely decisions about how and when to prepare. Uncertainty in forecasting is a critical component of this decision-making, but often poses a confounding factor for public and professional understanding of forecast products. In 2016 and 2017, building on previous research about the use of uncertainty forecast products, and with funding from NOAA's CSTAR program, East Carolina University and Nurture Nature Center (a non-profit organization with a focus on flooding issues, based in Easton, PA) conducted a research project to understand how various audiences use and interpret ensemble forecasts showing a range of hydrologic forecast possibilities. These audiences include community residents, emergency managers and water resource managers. The research team held focus groups in Jefferson County, WV and Frederick County, MD, to test a new suite of products from the National Weather Service's Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS). HEFS is an ensemble system that provides short and long-range forecasts, ranging from 6 hours to 1 year, showing uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts. The goal of the study was to assess the utility of the HEFS products, identify the barriers to proper understanding of the products, and suggest modifications to product design that could improve the understandability and accessibility for residential, emergency managers, and water resource managers. The research team worked with the Sterling, VA Weather Forecast Office and the Middle Atlantic River Forecast center to develop a weather scenario as the basis of the focus group discussions, which also included pre and post session surveys. This presentation shares the findings from those focus group discussions and surveys, including recommendations for revisions to HEFS products to improve accessibility of the forecast tools for various audiences. The presentation will provide a broad perspective on the range of graphic design considerations that affected how the public responded to products and will provide an overview of lessons learned about how product design can influence decision-making by users.

Environmental Certification of Forests: The Evolution of Environmental Governance in a Commodity Network

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klooster, Dan

2005-01-01

Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) influence social and environmental aspects of commodity production through certification schemes like organic and forest certification. As these become mainstream, however, they are often compromised by the interests of more powerful agents. Utilizing the concept of governance in global commodity networks,…

Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies

PubMed Central

Cohen, Justin M; Singh, Inder; O'Brien, Megan E

2008-01-01

Background An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding. Methods Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries. Results Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). Additionally, predicted ACT procurement, extrapolated from forecasted disbursements, was correlated strongly with actual ACT procurement supported by two grants from the Global Fund's first (r = 0.945, p < 0.0001) and fourth (r = 0.938, p < 0.0001) funding rounds. Conclusion This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability. PMID:18831742

12 CFR 32.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

...) Consumer means the user of any products, commodities, goods, or services, whether leased or purchased, but does not include any person who purchases products or commodities for resale or fabrication into goods... also includes paper covering the lease (where the bank is not the owner or lessor) or purchase of...

What commodities and countries impact inequality in the global food system?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carr, Joel A.; D'Odorico, Paolo; Suweis, Samir; Seekell, David A.

2016-09-01

The global distribution of food production is unequal relative to the distribution of human populations. International trade can increase or decrease inequality in food availability, but little is known about how specific countries and commodities contribute to this redistribution. We present a method based on the Gini coefficient for evaluating the contributions of country and commodity specific trade to inequality in the global food system. We applied the method to global food production and trade data for the years 1986-2011 to identify the specific countries and commodities that contribute to increasing and decreasing inequality in global food availability relative to food production. Overall, international trade reduced inequality in food availability by 25%-33% relative to the distribution of food production, depending on the year. Across all years, about 58% of the total trade links acted to reduce inequality with ˜4% of the links providing 95% of the reduction in inequality. Exports from United States of America, Malaysia, Argentina, and Canada are particularly important in decreasing inequality. Specific commodities that reduce inequality when traded include cereals and vegetables. Some trade connections contribute to increasing inequality, but this effect is mostly concentrated within a small number of commodities including fruits, stimulants, and nuts. In terms of specific countries, exports from Slovenia, Oman, Singapore, and Germany act to increase overall inequality. Collectively, our analysis and results represent an opportunity for building an enhanced understanding of global-scale patterns in food availability.

Regime shift in fertilizer commodities indicates more turbulence ahead for food security.

PubMed

Elser, James J; Elser, Timothy J; Carpenter, Stephen R; Brock, William A

2014-01-01

Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this "Green Revolution" has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium) for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice) and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum). Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007-2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication.

Regime Shift in Fertilizer Commodities Indicates More Turbulence Ahead for Food Security

PubMed Central

Elser, James J.; Elser, Timothy J.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Brock, William A.

2014-01-01

Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this “Green Revolution” has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium) for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice) and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum). Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007–2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication. PMID:24787624

Estimating the impact of cannabis production on rural land prices in Humboldt County, CA

Treesearch

Benjamin Schwab; Van Butsic

2017-01-01

Amenity values, development potential, commodity prices and productive capacity largely determine rural land prices. For rural lands used in timber and agricultural production, capacity and expected future commodity prices play primary roles. For rural lands that are used as second homes or recreational properties, amenities— such as being near lakes or having scenic...

Potential impact of Thailand's alcohol program on production, consumption, and trade of cassava, sugarcane, and corn

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boonserm, P.

1985-01-01

On the first of May 1980, Thailand's fuel-alcohol program was announced by the Thai government. According to the program, a target of 147 million liters of ethanol would be produced in 1981, from cassava, sugarcane, and other biomasses. Projecting increases in output each year, the target level of ethanol produciton was set at 482 million liters of ethanol for 1986. The proposed amount of ethanol production could create a major shift up in the demand schedule of energy crops such as cassava, sugarcane, and corn. The extent of the adjustments in price, production, consumption, and exports for these energy cropsmore » need to be evaluated. The purpose of this study is to assess the potential impact of Thailand's fuel-alcohol program on price, production, consumption, and exports of three potential energy crops: cassava, sugarcane, and corn. Econometric commodity models of cassava, sugarcane, and corn are constructed and used as a method of assessment. The overall results of the forecasting simulations of the models indicate that the fuel-alcohol program proposed by the Thai government will cause the price, production, and total consumption of cassava, sugarcane, and corn to increase; on the other hand, it will cause exports to decline. In addition, based on the relative prices and the technical coefficients of ethanol production of these three energy crops, this study concludes that only cassava should be used to produce the proposed target of ethanol production.« less

NCEP Data Products

Science.gov Websites

Image of NCEP Logo WHERE AMERICA'S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN Inventory of Data Products on Generated Products Image of horizontal rule Global Forecast System (GFS) GFS Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS of horizontal rule External Products Image of horizontal rule Canadian Ensemble Forecast System

7 CFR 65.250 - Slaughter.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... OF BEEF, PORK, LAMB, CHICKEN, GOAT MEAT, PERISHABLE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, MACADAMIA NUTS, PECANS... a livestock animal (including chicken) is prepared into meat products (covered commodities) for...

Bias correction of satellite precipitation products for flood forecasting application at the Upper Mahanadi River Basin in Eastern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beria, H.; Nanda, T., Sr.; Chatterjee, C.

2015-12-01

High resolution satellite precipitation products such as Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), etc., offer a promising alternative to flood forecasting in data scarce regions. At the current state-of-art, these products cannot be used in the raw form for flood forecasting, even at smaller lead times. In the current study, these precipitation products are bias corrected using statistical techniques, such as additive and multiplicative bias corrections, and wavelet multi-resolution analysis (MRA) with India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded precipitation product,obtained from gauge-based rainfall estimates. Neural network based rainfall-runoff modeling using these bias corrected products provide encouraging results for flood forecasting upto 48 hours lead time. We will present various statistical and graphical interpretations of catchment response to high rainfall events using both the raw and bias corrected precipitation products at different lead times.

Assessment of the safety of aquatic animal commodities for international trade: the OIE Aquatic Animal Health code.

PubMed

Oidtmann, B; Johnston, C; Klotins, K; Mylrea, G; Van, P T; Cabot, S; Martin, P Rosado; Ababouch, L; Berthe, F

2013-02-01

Trading of aquatic animals and aquatic animal products has become increasingly globalized during the last couple of decades. This commodity trade has increased the risk for the spread of aquatic animal pathogens. The World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) is recognized as the international standard-setting organization for measures relating to international trade in animals and animal products. In this role, OIE has developed the Aquatic Animal Health Code, which provides health measures to be used by competent authorities of importing and exporting countries to avoid the transfer of agents pathogenic for animals or humans, whilst avoiding unjustified sanitary barriers. An OIE ad hoc group developed criteria for assessing the safety of aquatic animals or aquatic animal products for any purpose from a country, zone or compartment not declared free from a given disease 'X'. The criteria were based on the absence of the pathogenic agent in the traded commodity or inactivation of the pathogenic agent by the commercial processing used to produce the commodity. The group also developed criteria to assess the safety of aquatic animals or aquatic animal products for retail trade for human consumption from potentially infected areas. Such commodities were assessed considering the form and presentation of the product, the expected volume of waste tissues generated by the consumer and the likely presence of viable pathogenic agent in the waste. The ad hoc group applied the criteria to commodities listed in the individual disease chapters of the Aquatic Animal Health Code (2008 edition). Revised lists of commodities for which no additional measures should be required by the importing countries regardless of the status for disease X of the exporting country were developed and adopted by the OIE World Assembly of Delegates in May 2011. The rationale of the criteria and their application will be explained and demonstrated using examples. © 2012 Crown Copyright. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office and Cefas, Aquatic Animal Disease Group.

Extending flood forecasting lead time in a large watershed by coupling WRF QPF with a distributed hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ji; Chen, Yangbo; Wang, Huanyu; Qin, Jianming; Li, Jie; Chiao, Sen

2017-03-01

Long lead time flood forecasting is very important for large watershed flood mitigation as it provides more time for flood warning and emergency responses. The latest numerical weather forecast model could provide 1-15-day quantitative precipitation forecasting products in grid format, and by coupling this product with a distributed hydrological model could produce long lead time watershed flood forecasting products. This paper studied the feasibility of coupling the Liuxihe model with the Weather Research and Forecasting quantitative precipitation forecast (WRF QPF) for large watershed flood forecasting in southern China. The QPF of WRF products has three lead times, including 24, 48 and 72 h, with the grid resolution being 20 km  × 20 km. The Liuxihe model is set up with freely downloaded terrain property; the model parameters were previously optimized with rain gauge observed precipitation, and re-optimized with the WRF QPF. Results show that the WRF QPF has bias with the rain gauge precipitation, and a post-processing method is proposed to post-process the WRF QPF products, which improves the flood forecasting capability. With model parameter re-optimization, the model's performance improves also. This suggests that the model parameters be optimized with QPF, not the rain gauge precipitation. With the increasing of lead time, the accuracy of the WRF QPF decreases, as does the flood forecasting capability. Flood forecasting products produced by coupling the Liuxihe model with the WRF QPF provide a good reference for large watershed flood warning due to its long lead time and rational results.

Analysis of scanner data for crop inventories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horvath, R. (Principal Investigator); Cicone, R. C.; Kauth, R. J.; Malila, W. A.

1981-01-01

Progress and technical issues are reported in the development of corn/soybeans area estimation procedures for use on data from South America, with particular emphasis on Argentina. Aspects related to the supporting research section of the AgRISTARS Project discussed include: (1) multisegment corn/soybean estimation; (2) through the season separability of corn and soybeans within the U.S. corn belt; (3) TTS estimation; (4) insights derived from the baseline corn and soybean procedure; (5) small fields research; and (6) simulating the spectral appearance of wheat as a function of its growth and development. To assist the foreign commodity production forecasting, the performance of the baseline corn/soybean procedure was analyzed and the procedure modified. Fundamental limitations were found in the existing guidelines for discriminating these two crops. The temporal and spectral characteristics of corn and soybeans must be determined because other crops grow with them in Argentina. The state of software technology is assessed and the use of profile techniques for estimation is considered.

Design and development of surface rainfall forecast products on GRAPES_MESO model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhili, Liu

2016-04-01

In this paper, we designed and developed the surface rainfall forecast products using medium scale GRAPES_MESO model precipitation forecast products. The horizontal resolution of GRAPES_MESO model is 10km*10km, the number of Grids points is 751*501, vertical levels is 26, the range is 70°E－145.15°E, 15°N－64.35 °N. We divided the basin into 7 major watersheds. Each watersheds was divided into a number of sub regions. There were 95 sub regions in all. Tyson polygon method is adopted in the calculation of surface rainfall. We used 24 hours forecast precipitation data of GRAPES_MESO model to calculate the surface rainfall. According to the site of information and boundary information of the 95 sub regions, the forecast surface rainfall of each sub regions was calculated. We can provide real-time surface rainfall forecast products every day. We used the method of fuzzy evaluation to carry out a preliminary test and verify about the surface rainfall forecast product. Results shows that the fuzzy score of heavy rain, rainstorm and downpour level forecast rainfall were higher, the fuzzy score of light rain level was lower. The forecast effect of heavy rain, rainstorm and downpour level surface rainfall were better. The rate of missing and empty forecast of light rainfall level surface rainfall were higher, so it's fuzzy score were lower.

New product forecasting with limited or no data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismai, Zuhaimy; Abu, Noratikah; Sufahani, Suliadi

2016-10-01

In the real world, forecasts would always be based on historical data with the assumption that the behaviour be the same for the future. But how do we forecast when there is no such data available? New product or new technologies normally has limited amount of data available. Knowing that forecasting is valuable for decision making, this paper presents forecasting of new product or new technologies using aggregate diffusion models and modified Bass Model. A newly launched Proton car and its penetration was chosen to demonstrate the possibility of forecasting sales demand where there is limited or no data available. The model was developed to forecast diffusion of new vehicle or an innovation in the Malaysian society. It is to represent the level of spread on the new vehicle among a given set of the society in terms of a simple mathematical function that elapsed since the introduction of the new product. This model will forecast the car sales volume. A procedure of the proposed diffusion model was designed and the parameters were estimated. Results obtained by applying the proposed diffusion model and numerical calculation shows that the model is robust and effective for forecasting demand of the new vehicle. The results reveal that newly developed modified Bass diffusion of demand function has significantly contributed for forecasting the diffusion of new Proton car or new product.

United States trade in wood products, 1978?2005.

Treesearch

Jean M. Daniels

2008-01-01

Tables summarize volume and values of United States trade in wood products from 1978 to 2005. Import and export data are shown for 21 commodities aggregated from over 1,700 wood products. Data were obtained from an earlier report by Chmelik and others and the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Trade in each commodity is delineated by trading partner and...

17 CFR 240.15b11-1 - Registration by notice of security futures product broker-dealers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... § 240.15b11-1 Registration by notice of security futures product broker-dealers. (a) A broker or dealer... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Registration by notice of security futures product broker-dealers. 240.15b11-1 Section 240.15b11-1 Commodity and Securities Exchanges...

Characterization of the Virtual Water Commodity Network of Major U.S. Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, S.; Ahams, I. C.; Ruddell, B. L.; Mejia, A.

2016-12-01

Cities, through their socioeconomic power and consumption patterns, drive an intricate web of commodity flows that gives rise to an underlying network of indirect transfers of energy and water. The virtual water content of a commodity represents the water embedded in its production. It can serve as a measure of city water consumption that, along with direct, metabolic consumption, exposes the dependence of cities on distant regions and the potential vulnerabilities of the network to shocks and stresses. Using the U.S. network of commodities flows, together with their associated virtual water content, we use network theory to analyze first-order and higher-order topological properties of virtual water flows for major U.S. cities, defined by their metropolitan boundaries. They are represented as nodes and weighted directed links, symbolizing the volume and direction of the virtual water flows associated with the transfer of agricultural, livestock and industrial commodities. We find that network properties, generally, vary across commodities and reveal complex structures such as the appearance of hubs like Chicago, Houston, and New Orleans for industrial commodities and the formation of communities (megaregions). Additionally, using scaling arguments, we find that increasing city size makes larger cities more water efficient and hydroeconomically productive than smaller ones. This work represents an initial step towards understanding the role played by cities in the U.S. commodity network and food-energy-water (FEW) nexus.

40 CFR 180.127 - Piperonyl butoxide; tolerances for residues.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... following food commodities: Commodity Parts per million Almond, postharvest 8 Apple, postharvest 8 Barley... cereal grain products, whereby the amount of piperonyl butoxide is at least equal to but not more than 10... piperonyl butoxide per ounce of fruit (0.10 milligram of piperonyl butoxide per gram of product). (E) In...

40 CFR 180.127 - Piperonyl butoxide; tolerances for residues.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... following food commodities: Commodity Parts per million Almond, postharvest 8 Apple, postharvest 8 Barley... cereal grain products, whereby the amount of piperonyl butoxide is at least equal to but not more than 10... piperonyl butoxide per ounce of fruit (0.10 milligram of piperonyl butoxide per gram of product). (E) In...

17 CFR 160.13 - Exception to opt out requirements for service providers and joint marketing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... this section may include marketing of your own products or services or marketing of financial products... requirements for service providers and joint marketing. 160.13 Section 160.13 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION PRIVACY OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL INFORMATION Exceptions § 160.13...

17 CFR 40.2 - Listing and accepting products for trading or clearing by certification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... for trading or clearing by certification. 40.2 Section 40.2 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION PROVISIONS COMMON TO REGISTERED ENTITIES § 40.2 Listing and accepting products for trading or clearing by certification. (a) Unless permitted otherwise by § 37.7 of this chapter...

Economic Indicators of the Farm Sector. Costs of Production, 1985.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Economic Research Service (USDA), Washington, DC.

This report presents the Economic Research Service's estimates of the costs of producing wheat, feed grains, cotton, and dairy commodities. It includes costs for other farm products that compete with the required commodities, namely rice, peanuts, soybeans, flax, sunflowers, fed cattle, hogs, sheep, and sugar. The report begins by assessing costs…

Estimates of immediate effects on world markets of a hypothetical disruption to Russia’s supply of six mineral commodities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safirova, Elena; Barry, James J.; Hastorun, Sinan; Matos, Grecia R.; Perez, Alberto Alexander; Bedinger, George M.; Bray, E. Lee; Jasinski, Stephen M.; Kuck, Peter H.; Loferski, Patricia J.

2017-05-18

The potential immediate effects of a hypothetical shock to Russia’s supply of selected mineral commodities on the world market and on individual countries were determined and monetized (in 2014 U.S. dollars). The mineral commodities considered were aluminum (refined primary), nickel (refined primary), palladium (refined) and platinum (refined), potash, and titanium (mill products), and the regions and countries of primary interest were the United States, the European Union (EU–28), and China. The shock is assumed to have infinite duration, but only the immediate effects, those limited by a 1-year period, are considered.A methodology for computing and monetizing the potential impacts was developed. Then the data pertaining to all six mineral commodities were collected and the most likely effects were computed. Because of the uncertainties associated with some of the data, sensitivity analyses were conducted to confirm the validity of the results.Results indicate that the impact on the United States arising from a shock to Russia’s supply, in terms of the value of net exports, would range from a gain of \\$336 million for titanium mill products to a loss of \\$237 million for potash; thus, the overall effect of a supply shock is likely to be quite modest. The study also demonstrates that, taken alone, Russia’s share in the world production of a particular commodity is not necessarily indicative of the size of potential impacts resulting from a supply shock; other factors, such as prices, domestic production, and the structure of international commodity flows were found to be important as well.

Manufacturing process design for multi commodities in agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasetyawan, Yudha; Santosa, Andrian Henry

2017-06-01

High-potential commodities within particular agricultural sectors should be accompanied by maximum benefit value that can be attained by both local farmers and business players. In several cases, the business players are small-medium enterprises (SMEs) which have limited resources to perform added value process of the local commodities into the potential products. The weaknesses of SMEs such as the manual production process with low productivity, limited capacity to maintain prices, and unattractive packaging due to conventional production. Agricultural commodity is commonly created into several products such as flour, chips, crackers, oil, juice, and other products. This research was initiated by collecting data by interview method particularly to obtain the perspectives of SMEs as the business players. Subsequently, the information was processed based on the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) to determine House of Quality from the first to fourth level. A proposed design as the result of QFD was produced and evaluated with Technology Assessment Model (TAM) and continued with a revised design. Finally, the revised design was analyzed with financial perspective to obtain the cost structure of investment, operational, maintenance, and workers. The machine that performs manufacturing process, as the result of revised design, was prototyped and tested to determined initial production process. The designed manufacturing process offers IDR 337,897, 651 of Net Present Value (NPV) in comparison with the existing process value of IDR 9,491,522 based on similar production input.

76 FR 80433 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change To List...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-23

... commodities portion of the Index consists of multiple commodity sectors (e.g., Energy, Industrial Metals) and... component weight. Weightings of the Commodities Futures Contracts are based on generally known world production levels, as adjusted to limit the impact of the energy sector. Weightings of the Financials Futures...

Commodity Agriculture, Civic Agriculture and the Future of U.S. Farming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lyson, Thomas A.; Guptill, Amy

2004-01-01

Commodity agriculture and civic agriculture represent two distinct types of farming found in the U.S. today. Commodity agriculture is grounded on the belief that the primary objectives of farming should be to produce as much food/fiber as possible for the least cost. It is driven by the twin goals of productivity and efficiency. Civic…

Cooperation with Commodity Groups and Hands-On Demonstrations Improve the Effectiveness of Commodity-Focused Educational Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kandel, Herman J.; Ransom, Joel K.; Torgerson, David A.; Wiersma, Jochum J.

2010-01-01

Wheat and soybean producers pay a small amount per bushel produced as a check-off. Funds are used for research, outreach, and crop promotion. Commodity organizations and Extension joined forces to develop multi-state educational outreach on spring wheat and soybean production. Participatory planning involved producers in developing these…

Transition of Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Data Products for Operational Weather Forecasting Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Matthew R.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Fuell, Kevin K.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2012-01-01

SPoRT is a team of NASA/NOAA scientists focused on demonstrating the utility of NASA and future NOAA data and derived products on improving short-term weather forecasts. Work collaboratively with a suite of unique products and selected WFOs in an end-to-end transition activity. Stable funding from NASA and NOAA. Recognized by the science community as the "go to" place for transitioning experimental and research data to the operational weather community. Endorsed by NWS ESSD/SSD chiefs. Proven paradigm for transitioning satellite observations and modeling capabilities to operations (R2O). SPoRT s transition of NASA satellite instruments provides unique or higher resolution data products to complement the baseline suite of geostationary data available to forecasters. SPoRT s partnership with NWS WFOs provides them with unique imagery to support disaster response and local forecast challenges. SPoRT has years of proven experience in developing and transitioning research products to the operational weather community. SPoRT has begun work with CONUS and OCONUS WFOs to determine the best products for maximum benefit to forecasters. VIIRS has already proven to be another extremely powerful tool, enhancing forecasters ability to handle difficult forecasting situations.

Wind power application research on the fusion of the determination and ensemble prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lan, Shi; Lina, Xu; Yuzhu, Hao

2017-07-01

The fused product of wind speed for the wind farm is designed through the use of wind speed products of ensemble prediction from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and professional numerical model products on wind power based on Mesoscale Model5 (MM5) and Beijing Rapid Update Cycle (BJ-RUC), which are suitable for short-term wind power forecasting and electric dispatch. The single-valued forecast is formed by calculating the different ensemble statistics of the Bayesian probabilistic forecasting representing the uncertainty of ECMWF ensemble prediction. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to improve the time resolution of the single-valued forecast, and based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the deterministic numerical model prediction, the optimal wind speed forecasting curve and the confidence interval are provided. The result shows that the fusion forecast has made obvious improvement to the accuracy relative to the existing numerical forecasting products. Compared with the 0-24 h existing deterministic forecast in the validation period, the mean absolute error (MAE) is decreased by 24.3 % and the correlation coefficient (R) is increased by 12.5 %. In comparison with the ECMWF ensemble forecast, the MAE is reduced by 11.7 %, and R is increased 14.5 %. Additionally, MAE did not increase with the prolongation of the forecast ahead.

Multiresolution analysis of Bursa Malaysia KLCI time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Dghais, Amel Abdoullah Ahmed

2017-05-01

In general, a time series is simply a sequence of numbers collected at regular intervals over a period. Financial time series data processing is concerned with the theory and practice of processing asset price over time, such as currency, commodity data, and stock market data. The primary aim of this study is to understand the fundamental characteristics of selected financial time series by using the time as well as the frequency domain analysis. After that prediction can be executed for the desired system for in sample forecasting. In this study, multiresolution analysis which the assist of discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) will be used to pinpoint special characteristics of Bursa Malaysia KLCI (Kuala Lumpur Composite Index) daily closing prices and return values. In addition, further case study discussions include the modeling of Bursa Malaysia KLCI using linear ARIMA with wavelets to address how multiresolution approach improves fitting and forecasting results.

History and geography of virtual water trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carr, J. A.; D'Odorico, P.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.

2012-12-01

The global trade of goods is associated with a virtual transfer of the water required for their production. The way changes in trade affect the virtual redistribution of freshwater resources has been recently documented through the analysis of the virtual water network. It is, however, unclear how these changes are contributed by different types of products and regions of the world. Here we show how the global patterns of virtual water transport are contributed by the trade of different commodity types, including plant, animal, luxury (e.g., coffee, tea, and alcohol), and other products (non-edible plant and animal products typically used for manufacturing). Major contributors to the virtual water network exhibit different trade patterns with regard to these commodity types with the net importers of virtual water relying on the supply of virtual water from a small percentage of the global population. Discrepancies exist among the different commodity networks. Surprisingly, while the total virtual water flux through the network has increased between 1986 and 2008, the global proportions associated with the four commodity groups have remained relatively stable. Here we discuss some major changes in the global patterns of virtual water trade with a focus on the increase in regional dependencies on foreign virtual water. The increase in virtual water trade and the percentage of the total virtual water flux in the network corresponding to plant, animals, luxury, and other commodities.

Development and Application of Hyperspectral Infrared Ozone Retrieval Products for Operational Meteorology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, Emily; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary

2015-01-01

Cyclogenesis is a key forecast challenge at operational forecasting centers such as WPC and OPC, so these centers have a particular interest in unique products that can identify key storm features. In some cases, explosively developing extratropical cyclones can produce hurricane force, non-convective winds along the East Coast and north Atlantic as well as the Pacific Ocean, with the potential to cause significant damage to life and property. Therefore, anticipating cyclogenesis for these types of storms is crucial for furthering the NOAA goal of a "Weather Ready Nation". Over the last few years, multispectral imagery (i.e. RGB) products have gained popularity among forecasters. The GOES-R satellite champion at WPC/OPC has regularly evaluated the Air Mass RGB products from GOES Sounder, MODIS, and SEVIRI to aid in forecasting cyclogenesis as part of ongoing collaborations with SPoRT within the framework of the GOES-R Proving Ground. WPC/OPC has used these products to identify regions of stratospheric air associated with tropopause folds that can lead to cyclogenesis and hurricane force winds. RGB products combine multiple channels or channel differences into multi-color imagery in which different colors represent a particular cloud or air mass type. Initial interaction and feedback from forecasters evaluating the legacy Air Mass RGBs revealed some uncertainty regarding what physical processes the qualitative RGB products represent and color interpretation. To enhance forecaster confidence and interpretation of the Air Mass RGB, NASA SPoRT has transitioned a total column ozone product from AIRS retrievals to the WPC/OPC. The use of legacy AIRS demonstrates future JPSS capabilities possible with CrIS or OMPS. Since stratospheric air can be identified by anomalous potential vorticity and warm, dry, ozone-rich air, hyperspectral infrared sounder ozone products can be used in conjunction with the Air Mass RGB for identifying the role of stratospheric air in explosive cyclogenesis and hurricane force wind events. Currently, forecasters at WPC/OPC are evaluating the Air Mass RGB imagery in conjunction with the AIRS total column ozone to aid forecasting cyclogenesis and high wind forecasts. One of the limitations of the total ozone product is that it is difficult for forecasters to determine whether elevated ozone concentrations are related to stratospheric air or climatologically high values of ozone in certain regions. To address this limitation, SPoRT created an AIRS ozone anomaly product which calculates the percent of normal ozone based on a global stratospheric ozone mean climatology. With the knowledge that ozone values 125 percent of normal and greater typically represent stratospheric air; the anomaly product can be used with the total column ozone product to confirm regions of stratospheric air on the Air Mass RGB. This presentation describes the generation of these products along with forecaster feedback concerning the use of the AIRS ozone products in conjunction with the Air Mass RGB product for the unique forecast challenges WPC/OPC face. Additionally examples of CrIS ozone and anomaly products will be shown to further demonstrate the utility and capability of JPSS in forecasting unique events.

Demonstration of AIRS Total Ozone Products to Operations to Enhance User Readiness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, Emily; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary

2014-01-01

Cyclogenesis is a key forecast challenge at operational forecasting centers such as WPC and OPC, so these centers have a particular interest in unique products that can identify key storm features. In some cases, explosively developing extratropical cyclones can produce hurricane force, non-convective winds along the East Coast and north Atlantic as well as the Pacific Ocean, with the potential to cause significant damage to life and property. Therefore, anticipating cyclogenesis for these types of storms is crucial for furthering the NOAA goal of a "Weather Ready Nation". Over the last few years, multispectral imagery (i.e. RGB) products have gained popularity among forecasters. The GOES-R satellite champion at WPC/OPC has regularly evaluated the Air Mass RGB products from GOES Sounder, MODIS, and SEVIRI to aid in forecasting cyclogenesis as part of ongoing collaborations with SPoRT within the framework of the GOES-R Proving Ground. WPC/OPC has used these products to identify regions of stratospheric air associated with tropopause folds that can lead to cyclogenesis and hurricane force winds. RGB products combine multiple channels or channel differences into multi-color imagery in which different colors represent a particular cloud or air mass type. Initial interaction and feedback from forecasters evaluating the legacy Air Mass RGBs revealed some uncertainty regarding what physical processes the qualitative RGB products represent and color interpretation. To enhance forecaster confidence and interpretation of the Air Mass RGB, NASA SPoRT has transitioned a total column ozone product from AIRS retrievals to the WPC/OPC. The use of legacy AIRS demonstrates future JPSS capabilities possible with CrIS or OMPS. Since stratospheric air can be identified by anomalous potential vorticity and warm, dry, ozone-rich air, hyperspectral infrared sounder ozone products can be used in conjunction with the Air Mass RGB for identifying the role of stratospheric air in explosive cyclogenesis and hurricane force wind events. Currently, forecasters at WPC/OPC are evaluating the Air Mass RGB imagery in conjunction with the AIRS total column ozone to aid forecasting cyclogenesis and high wind forecasts. One of the limitations of the total ozone product is that it is difficult for forecasters to determine whether elevated ozone concentrations are related to stratospheric air or climatologically high values of ozone in certain regions. To address this limitation, SPoRT created an AIRS ozone anomaly product which calculates the percent of normal ozone based on a global stratospheric ozone mean climatology. With the knowledge that ozone values 125 percent of normal and greater typically represent stratospheric air; the anomaly product can be used with the total column ozone product to confirm regions of stratospheric air on the Air Mass RGB. This presentation describes the generation of these products along with forecaster feedback concerning the use of the AIRS ozone products in conjunction with the Air Mass RGB product for the unique forecast challenges WPC/OPC face. Additionally examples of CrIS ozone and anomaly products will be shown to further demonstrate the utility and capability of JPSS in forecasting unique events.

Hydro-economic assessment of hydrological forecasting systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucher, M.-A.; Tremblay, D.; Delorme, L.; Perreault, L.; Anctil, F.

2012-01-01

SummaryAn increasing number of publications show that ensemble hydrological forecasts exhibit good performance when compared to observed streamflow. Many studies also conclude that ensemble forecasts lead to a better performance than deterministic ones. This investigation takes one step further by not only comparing ensemble and deterministic forecasts to observed values, but by employing the forecasts in a stochastic decision-making assistance tool for hydroelectricity production, during a flood event on the Gatineau River in Canada. This allows the comparison between different types of forecasts according to their value in terms of energy, spillage and storage in a reservoir. The motivation for this is to adopt the point of view of an end-user, here a hydroelectricity production society. We show that ensemble forecasts exhibit excellent performances when compared to observations and are also satisfying when involved in operation management for electricity production. Further improvement in terms of productivity can be reached through the use of a simple post-processing method.

Performance of an Advanced MOS System in the 1996-97 National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Contest.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vislocky, Robert L.; Fritsch, J. Michael

1997-12-01

A prototype advanced model output statistics (MOS) forecast system that was entered in the 1996-97 National Collegiate Weather Forecast Contest is described and its performance compared to that of widely available objective guidance and to contest participants. The prototype system uses an optimal blend of aviation (AVN) and nested grid model (NGM) MOS forecasts, explicit output from the NGM and Eta guidance, and the latest surface weather observations from the forecast site. The forecasts are totally objective and can be generated quickly on a personal computer. Other "objective" forms of guidance tracked in the contest are 1) the consensus forecast (i.e., the average of the forecasts from all of the human participants), 2) the combination of NGM raw output (for precipitation forecasts) and NGM MOS guidance (for temperature forecasts), and 3) the combination of Eta Model raw output (for precipitation forecasts) and AVN MOS guidance (for temperature forecasts).Results show that the advanced MOS system finished in 20th place out of 737 original entrants, or better than approximately 97% of the human forecasters who entered the contest. Moreover, the advanced MOS system was slightly better than consensus (23d place). The fact that an objective forecast system finished ahead of consensus is a significant accomplishment since consensus is traditionally a very formidable "opponent" in forecast competitions. Equally significant is that the advanced MOS system was superior to the traditional guidance products available from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Specifically, the combination of NGM raw output and NGM MOS guidance finished in 175th place, and the combination of Eta Model raw output and AVN MOS guidance finished in 266th place. The latter result is most intriguing since the proposed elimination of all NGM products would likely result in a serious degradation of objective products disseminated by NCEP, unless they are replaced with equal or better substitutes. On the other hand, the positive performance of the prototype advanced MOS system shows that it is possible to create a single objective product that is not only superior to currently available objective guidance products, but is also on par with some of the better human forecasters.

75 FR 38072 - Notice of a Request for Extension of a Currently Approved Information Collection

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-01

.... wheat and corn by the Soviet Union in 1972. To make sure that all parties involved in the production and.... The designated commodities for these daily reports are wheat (by class), barley, corn, grain sorghum... the size of the sales transaction, for all of these commodities, as well as wheat products, rye...

Making large amounts of meteorological plots easily accessible to users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamy-Thepaut, Sylvie; Siemen, Stephan; Sahin, Cihan; Raoult, Baudouin

2015-04-01

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an international organisation providing its member organisations with forecasts in the medium time range of 3 to 15 days, and some longer-range forecasts for up to a year ahead, with varying degrees of detail. As part of its mission, ECMWF generates an increasing number of forecast data products for its users. To support the work of forecasters and researchers and to let them make best use of ECMWF forecasts, the Centre also provides tools and interfaces to visualise their products. This allows users to make use of and explore forecasts without having to transfer large amounts of raw data. This is especially true for products based on ECMWF's 50 member ensemble forecast, where some specific processing and visualisation are applied to extract information. Every day, thousands of raw data are being pushed to the ECMWF's interactive web charts application called ecCharts, and thousands of products are processed and pushed to ECMWF's institutional web site ecCharts provides a highly interactive application to display and manipulate recent numerical forecasts to forecasters in national weather services and ECMWF's commercial customers. With ecCharts forecasters are able to explore ECMWF's medium-range forecasts in far greater detail than has previously been possible on the web, and this as soon as the forecast becomes available. All ecCharts's products are also available through a machine-to-machine web map service based on the OGC Web Map Service (WMS) standard. ECMWF institutional web site provides access to a large number of graphical products. It was entirely redesigned last year. It now shares the same infrastructure as ECMWF's ecCharts, and can benefit of some ecCharts functionalities, for example the dashboard. The dashboard initially developed for ecCharts allows users to organise their own collection of products depending on their work flow, and is being further developed. In its first implementation, It presents the user's products in a single interface with fast access to the original product, and possibilities of synchronous animations between them. But its functionalities are being extended to give users the freedom to collect not only ecCharts's 2D maps and graphs, but also other ECMWF Web products such as monthly and seasonal products, scores, and observation monitoring. The dashboard will play a key role to help the user to interpret the large amount of information that ECMWF is providing. This talk will present examples of how the new user interface can organise complex meteorological maps and graphs and show the new possibilities users have gained by using the web as a medium.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

/ VISION | About EMC EMC > NAM > EXPERIMENTAL DATA Home NAM Operational Products HIRESW Operational Products Operational Forecast Graphics Experimental Forecast Graphics Verification and Diagnostics Model PARALLEL/EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FORECAST GRAPHICS OPERATIONAL VERIFICATION / DIAGNOSTICS PARALLEL VERIFICATION

Transition from Research to Operations: Assessing Value of Experimental Forecast Products within the NWSFO Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapenta, William M.; Wohlman, Richard; Bradshaw, Tom; Burks, Jason; Jedlovec, Gary; Goodman, Steve; Darden, Chris; Meyer, Paul

2003-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center seeks to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. To meet long-term program expectations, it is not sufficient simply to give forecasters sophisticated workstations or new forecast products without fully assessing the ways in which they will be utilized. Close communication must be established between the research and operational communities so that developers have a complete understanding of user needs. In turn, forecasters must obtain a more comprehensive knowledge of the modeling and sensing tools available to them. A major goal of the SPoRT Program is to develop metrics and conduct assessment studies with NWS forecasters to evaluate the impacts and benefits of ESE experimental products on forecast skill. At a glance the task seems relatively straightforward. However, performing assessment of experimental products in an operational environment is demanding. Given the tremendous time constraints placed on NWS forecasters, it is imperative that forecaster input be obtained in a concise unobtrusive manor. Great care must also be taken to ensure that forecasters understand their participation will eventually benefit them and WFO operations in general. Two requirements of the assessment plan developed under the SPoRT activity are that it 1) Can be implemented within the WFO environment; and 2) Provide tangible results for BOTH the research and operational communities. Supplemental numerical quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) were chosen as the first experimental SPoRT product to be evaluated during a Pilot Assessment Program conducted 1 May 2003 within the Huntsville AL National Weather Service Forecast Office. Forecast time periods were broken up into six- hour bins ranging from zero to twenty-four hours. Data were made available for display in AWIPS on an operational basis so they could be efficiently incorporated into the forecast process. The methodology used to assess the value of experimental QPFs compared to available operational products is best described as a three-tier approach involving both forecasters and research scientists. Tier-one is a web-based survey completed by duty forecasters on the aviation and public desks. The survey compiles information on how the experimental product was used in the forecast decision making process. Up to 6 responses per twenty-four hours can be compiled during a precipitation event. Tier-two consists of an event post mortem and experimental product assessment performed daily by the NASA/NWS Liaison. Tier-three is a detailed breakdown/analysis of specific events targeted by either the NWS SO0 or SPoRT team members. The task is performed by both NWS and NASA research scientists and may be conducted once every couple of months. The findings from the Pilot Assessment Program will be reported at the meeting.

Susceptibility of juvenile European lobster Homarus gammarus to shrimp products infected with high and low doses of white spot syndrome virus.

PubMed

Bateman, K S; Munro, J; Uglow, B; Small, H J; Stentiford, G D

2012-08-27

White spot syndrome virus (WSSV) is the most important pathogen known to affect the sustainability and growth of the global penaeid shrimp farming industry. Although most commonly associated with penaeid shrimp farmed in warm waters, WSSV is also able to infect, cause disease in and kill a wide range of other decapod crustaceans, including lobsters, from temperate regions. In 2005, the European Union imported US$500 million worth of raw frozen or cooked frozen commodity products, much of which originated in regions positive for white spot disease (WSD). The presence of WSSV within the UK food market was verified by means of nested PCR performed on samples collected from a small-scale survey of supermarket commodity shrimp. Passage trials using inoculum derived from commodity shrimp from supermarkets and delivered by injection to specific pathogen-free Pacific white shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei led to rapid mortality and pathognomonic signs of WSD in the shrimp, demonstrating that WSSV present within commodity shrimp was viable. We exposed a representative European decapod crustacean, the European lobster Homarus gammarus, to a single feeding of WSSV-positive, supermarket-derived commodity shrimp, and to positive control material (L. vannamei infected with a high dose of WSSV). These trials demonstrated that lobsters fed positive control (high dose) frozen raw products succumbed to WSD and displayed pathognomonic signs associated with the disease as determined by means of histology and transmission electron microscopy. Lobsters fed WSSV-positive, supermarket-derived commodity shrimp (low dose) did not succumb to WSD (no mortality or pathognomonic signs of WSD) but demonstrated a low level or latent infection via PCR. This study confirms susceptibility of H. gammarus to WSSV via single feedings of previously frozen raw shrimp products obtained directly from supermarkets.

Application of satellite-based rainfall and medium range meteorological forecast in real-time flood forecasting in the Mahanadi River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanda, Trushnamayee; Beria, Harsh; Sahoo, Bhabagrahi; Chatterjee, Chandranath

2016-04-01

Increasing frequency of hydrologic extremes in a warming climate call for the development of reliable flood forecasting systems. The unavailability of meteorological parameters in real-time, especially in the developing parts of the world, makes it a challenging task to accurately predict flood, even at short lead times. The satellite-based Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) provides an alternative to the real-time precipitation data scarcity. Moreover, rainfall forecasts by the numerical weather prediction models such as the medium term forecasts issued by the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are promising for multistep-ahead flow forecasts. We systematically evaluate these rainfall products over a large catchment in Eastern India (Mahanadi River basin). We found spatially coherent trends, with both the real-time TRMM rainfall and ECMWF rainfall forecast products overestimating low rainfall events and underestimating high rainfall events. However, no significant bias was found for the medium rainfall events. Another key finding was that these rainfall products captured the phase of the storms pretty well, but suffered from consistent under-prediction. The utility of the real-time TRMM and ECMWF forecast products are evaluated by rainfall-runoff modeling using different artificial neural network (ANN)-based models up to 3-days ahead. Keywords: TRMM; ECMWF; forecast; ANN; rainfall-runoff modeling

Assessing the Effects of Climate Variability on Orange Yield in Florida to Reduce Production Forecast Errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Concha Larrauri, P.

2015-12-01

Orange production in Florida has experienced a decline over the past decade. Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 greatly affected production, almost to the same degree as strong freezes that occurred in the 1980's. The spread of the citrus greening disease after the hurricanes has also contributed to a reduction in orange production in Florida. The occurrence of hurricanes and diseases cannot easily be predicted but the additional effects of climate on orange yield can be studied and incorporated into existing production forecasts that are based on physical surveys, such as the October Citrus forecast issued every year by the USDA. Specific climate variables ocurring before and after the October forecast is issued can have impacts on flowering, orange drop rates, growth, and maturation, and can contribute to the forecast error. Here we present a methodology to incorporate local climate variables to predict the USDA's orange production forecast error, and we study the local effects of climate on yield in different counties in Florida. This information can aid farmers to gain an insight on what is to be expected during the orange production cycle, and can help supply chain managers to better plan their strategy.

Agent Based Model of Livestock Movements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miron, D. J.; Emelyanova, I. V.; Donald, G. E.; Garner, G. M.

The modelling of livestock movements within Australia is of national importance for the purposes of the management and control of exotic disease spread, infrastructure development and the economic forecasting of livestock markets. In this paper an agent based model for the forecasting of livestock movements is presented. This models livestock movements from farm to farm through a saleyard. The decision of farmers to sell or buy cattle is often complex and involves many factors such as climate forecast, commodity prices, the type of farm enterprise, the number of animals available and associated off-shore effects. In this model the farm agent's intelligence is implemented using a fuzzy decision tree that utilises two of these factors. These two factors are the livestock price fetched at the last sale and the number of stock on the farm. On each iteration of the model farms choose either to buy, sell or abstain from the market thus creating an artificial supply and demand. The buyers and sellers then congregate at the saleyard where livestock are auctioned using a second price sealed bid. The price time series output by the model exhibits properties similar to those found in real livestock markets.

A Comparative Cost Analysis of Commodity Foods from the U. S. Department of Agriculture in the National School Lunch Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peterson, Cora

2009-01-01

Schools that participate in the National School Lunch Program receive a portion of their federal funding as commodity foods rather than cash payments. This research compared the product costs and estimated total procurement costs of commodity and commercial foods from the school district perspective using data from 579 Minnesota ordering sites in…

7 CFR 1484.13 - What special definitions apply to the Cooperator program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Marketing Programs, FAS, USDA, or designee. Division Director—the director of a commodity division... agricultural commodities or products and does not have a business interest in or receive remuneration from...

Trading forests: land-use change and carbon emissions embodied in production and exports of forest-risk commodities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henders, Sabine; Persson, U. Martin; Kastner, Thomas

2015-12-01

Production of commercial agricultural commodities for domestic and foreign markets is increasingly driving land clearing in tropical regions, creating links and feedback effects between geographically separated consumption and production locations. Such teleconnections are commonly studied through calculating consumption footprints and quantifying environmental impacts embodied in trade flows, e.g., virtual water and land, biomass, or greenhouse gas emissions. The extent to which land-use change (LUC) and associated carbon emissions are embodied in the production and export of agricultural commodities has been less studied. Here we quantify tropical deforestation area and carbon emissions from LUC induced by the production and the export of four commodities (beef, soybeans, palm oil, and wood products) in seven countries with high deforestation rates (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea). We show that in the period 2000-2011, the production of the four analyzed commodities in our seven case countries was responsible for 40% of total tropical deforestation and resulting carbon losses. Over a third of these impacts was embodied in exports in 2011, up from a fifth in 2000. This trend highlights the growing influence of global markets in deforestation dynamics. Main flows of embodied LUC are Latin American beef and soybean exports to markets in Europe, China, the former Soviet bloc, the Middle East and Northern Africa, whereas embodied emission flows are dominated by Southeast Asian exports of palm oil and wood products to consumers in China, India and the rest of Asia, as well as to the European Union. Our findings illustrate the growing role that global consumers play in tropical LUC trajectories and highlight the need for demand-side policies covering whole supply chains. We also discuss the limitations of such demand-side measures and call for a combination of supply- and demand-side policies to effectively limit tropical deforestation, along with research into the interactions of different types of policy interventions.

GCAM 3.0 Agriculture and Land Use: Data Sources and Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Calvin, Katherine V.

This report presents the data processing methods used in the GCAM 3.0 agriculture and land use component, starting from all source data used, and detailing all calculations and assumptions made in generating the model inputs. The report starts with a brief introduction to modeling of agriculture and land use in GCAM 3.0, and then provides documentation of the data and methods used for generating the base-year dataset and future scenario parameters assumed in the model input files. Specifically, the report addresses primary commodity production, secondary (animal) commodity production, disposition of commodities, land allocation, land carbon contents, and land values.

The Effects of Digital Marketing of Unhealthy Commodities on Young People: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Buchanan, Limin; Kelly, Bridget; Kariippanon, Kishan

2018-01-01

The marketing of unhealthy commodities through traditional media is known to impact consumers’ product attitudes and behaviors. Less is known about the impacts of digital marketing (online promotional activities), especially among young people who have a strong online presence. This review systematically assesses the relationship between digital marketing and young people’s attitudes and behaviors towards unhealthy commodities. Literature was identified in June 2017 by searches in six electronic databases. Primary studies (both qualitative and quantitative) that examined the effect of digital marketing of unhealthy food or beverages, alcohol and tobacco products on young people’s (12 to 30 years) attitudes, intended and actual consumption were reviewed. 28 relevant studies were identified. Significant detrimental effects of digital marketing on the intended use and actual consumption of unhealthy commodities were revealed in the majority of the included studies. Findings from the qualitative studies were summarized and these findings provided insights on how digital marketing exerts effects on young people. One of the key findings was that marketers used peer-to-peer transmission of messages on social networking sites (e.g., friends’ likes and comments on Facebook) to blur the boundary between marketing contents and online peer activities. Digital marketing of unhealthy commodities is associated with young people’s use and beliefs of these products. The effects of digital marketing varied between product types and peer endorsed marketing (earned media) may exert greater negative impacts than owned or paid media marketing. PMID:29382140

The Effects of Digital Marketing of Unhealthy Commodities on Young People: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Buchanan, Limin; Kelly, Bridget; Yeatman, Heather; Kariippanon, Kishan

2018-01-29

The marketing of unhealthy commodities through traditional media is known to impact consumers' product attitudes and behaviors. Less is known about the impacts of digital marketing (online promotional activities), especially among young people who have a strong online presence. This review systematically assesses the relationship between digital marketing and young people's attitudes and behaviors towards unhealthy commodities. Literature was identified in June 2017 by searches in six electronic databases. Primary studies (both qualitative and quantitative) that examined the effect of digital marketing of unhealthy food or beverages, alcohol and tobacco products on young people's (12 to 30 years) attitudes, intended and actual consumption were reviewed. 28 relevant studies were identified. Significant detrimental effects of digital marketing on the intended use and actual consumption of unhealthy commodities were revealed in the majority of the included studies. Findings from the qualitative studies were summarized and these findings provided insights on how digital marketing exerts effects on young people. One of the key findings was that marketers used peer-to-peer transmission of messages on social networking sites (e.g., friends' likes and comments on Facebook) to blur the boundary between marketing contents and online peer activities. Digital marketing of unhealthy commodities is associated with young people's use and beliefs of these products. The effects of digital marketing varied between product types and peer endorsed marketing (earned media) may exert greater negative impacts than owned or paid media marketing.

Global Impacts and Regional Actions: Preparing for the 1997-98 El Niño.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buizer, James L.; Foster, Josh; Lund, David

2000-09-01

It has been estimated that severe El Niño-related flooding and droughts in Africa, Latin America, North America, and Southeast Asia resulted in more than 22 000 lives lost and in excess of $36 billion in damages during 1997-98. As one of the most severe events this century, the 1997-98 El Niño was unique not only in terms of physical magnitude, but also in terms of human response. This response was made possible by recent advances in climate-observing and forecasting systems, creation and dissemination of forecast information by institutions such as the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, and individuals in climate-sensitive sectors willing to act on forecast information by incorporating it into their decision-making. The supporting link between the forecasts and their practical application was a product of efforts by several national and international organizations, and a primary focus of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office of Global Programs (NOAA/OGP).NOAA/OGP over the last decade has supported pilot projects in Latin America, the Caribbean, the South Pacific, Southeast Asia, and Africa to improve transfer of forecast information to climate sensitive sectors, study linkages between climate and human health, and distribute climate information products in certain areas. Working with domestic and international partners, NOAA/OGP helped organize a total of 11 Climate Outlook Fora around the world during the 1997-98 El Niño. At each Outlook Forum, climatologists and meteorologists created regional, consensus-based, seasonal precipitation forecasts and representatives from climate-sensitive sectors discussed options for applying forecast information. Additional ongoing activities during 1997-98 included research programs focused on the social and economic impacts of climate change and the regional manifestations of global-scale climate variations and their effect on decision-making in climate-sensitive sectors in the United States.The overall intent of NOAA/OGP's activities was to make experimental forecast information broadly available to potential users, and to foster a learning process on how seasonal-to-interannual forecasts could be applied in sectors susceptible to climate variability. This process allowed users to explore the capabilities and limitations of climate forecasts currently available, and forecast producers to receive feedback on the utility of their products. Through activities in which NOAA/OGP and its partners were involved, it became clear that further application of forecast information will be aided by improved forecast accuracy and detail, creation of common validation techniques, continued training in forecast generation and application, alternate methods for presenting forecast information, and a systematic strategy for creation and dissemination of forecast products.The overall intent of NOAA/OGP's activities was to make experimental forecast information broadly available to potential users, and to foster a learning process on how seasonal-to-interannual forecasts could be applied in sectors susceptible to climate variability. This process allowed users to explore the capabilities and limitations of climate forecasts currently available, and forecast producers to receive feedback on the utility of their products. Through activities in which NOAA/OGP and its partners were involved, it became clear that further application of forecast information will be aided by improved forecast accuracy and detail, creation of common validation techniques, continued training in forecast generation and application, alternate methods for presenting forecast information, and a systematic strategy for creation and dissemination of forecast products.

An Enhanced Convective Forecast (ECF) for the New York TRACON Area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Mark; Stobie, James; Gillen, Robert; Jedlovec, Gary; Sims, Danny

2008-01-01

In an effort to relieve summer-time congestion in the NY Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) area, the FAA is testing an enhanced convective forecast (ECF) product. The test began in June 2008 and is scheduled to run through early September. The ECF is updated every two hours, right before the Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) national planning telcon. It is intended to be used by traffic managers throughout the National Airspace System (NAS) and airlines dispatchers to supplement information from the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) and the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS). The ECF begins where the current CIWS forecast ends at 2 hours and extends out to 12 hours. Unlike the CCFP it is a detailed deterministic forecast with no aerial coverage limits. It is created by an ENSCO forecaster using a variety of guidance products including, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. This is the same version of the WRF that ENSCO runs over the Florida peninsula in support of launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center. For this project, the WRF model domain has been shifted to the Northeastern US. Several products from the NASA SPoRT group are also used by the ENSCO forecaster. In this paper we will provide examples of the ECF products and discuss individual cases of traffic management actions using ECF guidance.

Optimal Day-Ahead Scheduling of a Hybrid Electric Grid Using Weather Forecasts

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

ahead scheduling, Weather forecast , Wind power , Photovoltaic Power 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 107 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF...cost can be reached by accurately anticipating the future renewable power productions. This thesis suggests the use of weather forecasts to establish...reached by accurately anticipating the future renewable power productions. This thesis suggests the use of weather forecasts to establish day-ahead

Utilization of Precipitation and Moisture Products Derived from Satellites to Support NOAA Operational Precipitation Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferraro, R.; Zhao, L.; Kuligowski, R. J.; Kusselson, S.; Ma, L.; Kidder, S. Q.; Forsythe, J. M.; Jones, A. S.; Ebert, E. E.; Valenti, E.

2012-12-01

NOAA/NESDIS operates a constellation of polar and geostationary orbiting satellites to support weather forecasts and to monitor the climate. Additionally, NOAA utilizes satellite assets from other U.S. agencies like NASA and the Department of Defense, as well as those from other nations with similar weather and climate responsibilities (i.e., EUMETSAT and JMA). Over the past two decades, through joint efforts between U.S. and international government researchers, academic partners, and private sector corporations, a series of "value added" products have been developed to better serve the needs of weather forecasters and to exploit the full potential of precipitation and moisture products generated from these satellites. In this presentation, we will focus on two of these products - Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP) and Blended Total Precipitable Water (bTPW) - and provide examples on how they contribute to hydrometeorological forecasts. In terms of passive microwave satellite products, TPW perhaps is most widely used to support real-time forecasting applications, as it accurately depicts tropospheric water vapor and its movement. In particular, it has proven to be extremely useful in determining the location, timing, and duration of "atmospheric rivers" which contribute to and sustain flooding events. A multi-sensor approach has been developed and implemented at NESDIS in which passive microwave estimates from multiple satellites and sensors are merged to create a seamless, bTPW product that is more efficient for forecasters to use. Additionally, this product is being enhanced for utilization for television weather forecasters. Examples will be shown to illustrate the roll of atmospheric rivers and contribution to flooding events, and how the bTPW product was used to improve the forecast of these events. Heavy rains associated with land falling tropical cyclones (TC) frequently trigger floods that cause millions of dollars of damage and tremendous loss of lives. To provide observations-based forecast guidance for TC heavy rain, the Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP), an extrapolation forecast generated by accumulating rainfall estimates from satellites with microwave sensors as the storm is translated along the forecast track, was originally developed to predict the maximum rainfall at landfall, as well as the spatial pattern of precipitation. More recently, an enhancement has been made to combine the TRaP forecasts from multiple sensors and various start times into an ensemble (eTRaP). The ensemble approach provides not only more accurate quantitative precipitation forecasts, including more skillful maximum rainfall amount and location, it also produces probabilistic forecasts of rainfall exceeding various thresholds that decision makers can use to make critical risk assessments. Examples of the utilization and performance of eTRaP will be given in the presentation.

Converting Carbon Dioxide to Butyrate with an Engineered Strain of Clostridium ljungdahlii

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ueki, T; Nevin, KP; Woodard, TL

2014-08-26

Microbial conversion of carbon dioxide to organic commodities via syngas metabolism or microbial electrosynthesis is an attractive option for production of renewable biocommodities. The recent development of an initial genetic toolbox for the acetogen Clostridium ljungdahlii has suggested that C. ljungdahlii may be an effective chassis for such conversions. This possibility was evaluated by engineering a strain to produce butyrate, a valuable commodity that is not a natural product of C. ljungdahlii metabolism. Heterologous genes required for butyrate production from acetyl-coenzyme A (CoA) were identified and introduced initially on plasmids and in subsequent strain designs integrated into the C. ljungdahliimore » chromosome. Iterative strain designs involved increasing translation of a key enzyme by modifying a ribosome binding site, inactivating the gene encoding the first step in the conversion of acetyl-CoA to acetate, disrupting the gene which encodes the primary bifunctional aldehyde/alcohol dehydrogenase for ethanol production, and interrupting the gene for a CoA transferase that potentially represented an alternative route for the production of acetate. These modifications yielded a strain in which ca. 50 or 70% of the carbon and electron flow was diverted to the production of butyrate with H-2 or CO as the electron donor, respectively. These results demonstrate the possibility of producing high-value commodities from carbon dioxide with C. ljungdahlii as the catalyst. IMPORTANCE The development of a microbial chassis for efficient conversion of carbon dioxide directly to desired organic products would greatly advance the environmentally sustainable production of biofuels and other commodities. Clostridium ljungdahlii is an effective catalyst for microbial electrosynthesis, a technology in which electricity generated with renewable technologies, such as solar or wind, powers the conversion of carbon dioxide and water to organic products. Other electron donors for C. ljungdahlii include carbon monoxide, which can be derived from industrial waste gases or the conversion of recalcitrant biomass to syngas, as well as hydrogen, another syngas component. The finding that carbon and electron flow in C. ljungdahlii can be diverted from the production of acetate to butyrate synthesis is an important step toward the goal of renewable commodity production from carbon dioxide with this organism.« less

Methyl Bromide Commodity Fumigation Buffer Zone Lookup Tables

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Product labels for methyl bromide used in commodity and structural fumigation include requirements for buffer zones around treated areas. The information on this page will allow you to find the appropriate buffer zone for your planned application.

The inevitable commoditization of electric power markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mango, B.; Woodley, J.A.C.

1994-11-01

As competition grows between electric suppliers it is inevitable that a spot market in electricity will evolve. The impetus is the market demand for greater asset productivity. With prices revealed, a commodity market will follow. With spot and commodity markets will come the power to reallocate risk and make capital investment more productive. Given price volatility, separate markets will develop for near- and long-term hedging instruments.

A Multi-Attribute Assessment of Site Preparation Effects on the Socioeconomical and Ecological Attributes of Loblolly Pine (Pinus taeda) Stands

Treesearch

James H. Miller; Jianbang Gan; Stephen H. Kolison; Robert S. Boyd; Kenneth L. McNabb; B. Graeme Lockaby

1998-01-01

The public demands both commodity and non-commodity goods and srvices from our forests. This requires management options that not only provide fiber, clean water, wildlife habitat, and mcreation, but do so in a biologically sustainable manner, resulting in healthy productive forests into perpetuity. A common forest management activity used to enhance fiber production...

17 CFR 41.13 - Futures contracts on security indexes trading on or subject to the rules of a foreign board of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Futures contracts on security indexes trading on or subject to the rules of a foreign board of trade. 41.13 Section 41.13 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION SECURITY FUTURES PRODUCTS Narrow-Based Security Indexes § 41.13 Futures contracts on...

Forecasting in foodservice: model development, testing, and evaluation.

PubMed

Miller, J L; Thompson, P A; Orabella, M M

1991-05-01

This study was designed to develop, test, and evaluate mathematical models appropriate for forecasting menu-item production demand in foodservice. Data were collected from residence and dining hall foodservices at Ohio State University. Objectives of the study were to collect, code, and analyze the data; develop and test models using actual operation data; and compare forecasting results with current methods in use. Customer count was forecast using deseasonalized simple exponential smoothing. Menu-item demand was forecast by multiplying the count forecast by a predicted preference statistic. Forecasting models were evaluated using mean squared error, mean absolute deviation, and mean absolute percentage error techniques. All models were more accurate than current methods. A broad spectrum of forecasting techniques could be used by foodservice managers with access to a personal computer and spread-sheet and database-management software. The findings indicate that mathematical forecasting techniques may be effective in foodservice operations to control costs, increase productivity, and maximize profits.

Using Forecast and Observed Weather Data to Assess Performance of Forecast Products in Identifying Heat Waves and Estimating Heat Wave Effects on Mortality

PubMed Central

Chen, Yeh-Hsin; Schwartz, Joel D.; Rood, Richard B.; O’Neill, Marie S.

2014-01-01

Background: Heat wave and health warning systems are activated based on forecasts of health-threatening hot weather. Objective: We estimated heat–mortality associations based on forecast and observed weather data in Detroit, Michigan, and compared the accuracy of forecast products for predicting heat waves. Methods: We derived and compared apparent temperature (AT) and heat wave days (with heat waves defined as ≥ 2 days of daily mean AT ≥ 95th percentile of warm-season average) from weather observations and six different forecast products. We used Poisson regression with and without adjustment for ozone and/or PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm) to estimate and compare associations of daily all-cause mortality with observed and predicted AT and heat wave days. Results: The 1-day-ahead forecast of a local operational product, Revised Digital Forecast, had about half the number of false positives compared with all other forecasts. On average, controlling for heat waves, days with observed AT = 25.3°C were associated with 3.5% higher mortality (95% CI: –1.6, 8.8%) than days with AT = 8.5°C. Observed heat wave days were associated with 6.2% higher mortality (95% CI: –0.4, 13.2%) than non–heat wave days. The accuracy of predictions varied, but associations between mortality and forecast heat generally tended to overestimate heat effects, whereas associations with forecast heat waves tended to underestimate heat wave effects, relative to associations based on observed weather metrics. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that incorporating knowledge of local conditions may improve the accuracy of predictions used to activate heat wave and health warning systems. Citation: Zhang K, Chen YH, Schwartz JD, Rood RB, O’Neill MS. 2014. Using forecast and observed weather data to assess performance of forecast products in identifying heat waves and estimating heat wave effects on mortality. Environ Health Perspect 122:912–918; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306858 PMID:24833618

Applications of GARCH models to energy commodities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humphreys, H. Brett

This thesis uses GARCH methods to examine different aspects of the energy markets. The first part of the thesis examines seasonality in the variance. This study modifies the standard univariate GARCH models to test for seasonal components in both the constant and the persistence in natural gas, heating oil and soybeans. These commodities exhibit seasonal price movements and, therefore, may exhibit seasonal variances. In addition, the heating oil model is tested for a structural change in variance during the Gulf War. The results indicate the presence of an annual seasonal component in the persistence for all commodities. Out-of-sample volatility forecasting for natural gas outperforms standard forecasts. The second part of this thesis uses a multivariate GARCH model to examine volatility spillovers within the crude oil forward curve and between the London and New York crude oil futures markets. Using these results the effect of spillovers on dynamic hedging is examined. In addition, this research examines cointegration within the oil markets using investable returns rather than fixed prices. The results indicate the presence of strong volatility spillovers between both markets, weak spillovers from the front of the forward curve to the rest of the curve, and cointegration between the long term oil price on the two markets. The spillover dynamic hedge models lead to a marginal benefit in terms of variance reduction, but a substantial decrease in the variability of the dynamic hedge; thereby decreasing the transactions costs associated with the hedge. The final portion of the thesis uses portfolio theory to demonstrate how the energy mix consumed in the United States could be chosen given a national goal to reduce the risks to the domestic macroeconomy of unanticipated energy price shocks. An efficient portfolio frontier of U.S. energy consumption is constructed using a covariance matrix estimated with GARCH models. The results indicate that while the electric utility industry is operating close to the minimum variance position, a shift towards coal consumption would reduce price volatility for overall U.S. energy consumption. With the inclusion of potential externality costs, the shift remains away from oil but towards natural gas instead of coal.

40 CFR 180.449 - Avermectin B1 and its delta-8,9-isomer; tolerances for residues.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... on the following commodities: Commodity Parts per million Almond, hulls 0.10 Apple 0.020 Apple, wet....02 Food products in food handling establishments (other than those already covered by higher...

40 CFR 180.449 - Avermectin B1 and its delta-8,9-isomer; tolerances for residues.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... on the following commodities: Commodity Parts per million Almond, hulls 0.10 Apple 0.020 Apple, wet....02 Food products in food handling establishments (other than those already covered by higher...

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Treatment 8 Hours or Less

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Treatment Longer than 8 Hours

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

New watershed-based climate forecast products for hydrologists and water managers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, S. A.; Wood, A.; Rajagopalan, B.; Lehner, F.; Peng, P.; Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Werner, K.

2017-12-01

Operational sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) climate predictions have advanced in skill in recent years but are yet to be broadly utilized by stakeholders in the water management sector. While some of the challenges that relate to fundamental predictability are difficult or impossible to surmount, other hurdles related to forecast product formulation, translation, relevance, and accessibility can be directly addressed. These include products being misaligned with users' space-time needs, products disseminated in formats users cannot easily process, and products based on raw model outputs that are biased relative to user climatologies. In each of these areas, more can be done to bridge the gap by enhancing the usability, quality, and relevance of water-oriented predictions. In addition, water stakeholder impacts can benefit from short-range extremes predictions (such as 2-3 day storms or 1-week heat waves) at S2S time-scales, for which few products exist. We present interim results of a Research to Operations (R2O) effort sponsored by the NOAA MAPP Climate Testbed to (1) formulate climate prediction products so as to reduce hurdles to in water stakeholder adoption, and to (2) explore opportunities for extremes prediction at S2S time scales. The project is currently using CFSv2 and National Multi-­Model Ensemble (NMME) reforecasts and forecasts to develop real-time watershed-based climate forecast products, and to train post-processing approaches to enhance the skill and reliability of raw real-time S2S forecasts. Prototype S2S climate data products (forecasts and associated skill analyses) are now being operationally staged at NCAR on a public website to facilitate further product development through interactions with water managers. Initial demonstration products include CFSv2-based bi-weekly climate forecasts (weeks 1-2, 2-3, and 3-4) for sub-regional scale hydrologic units, and NMME-based monthly and seasonal prediction products. Raw model mean skill at these time-space resolutions for some periods (e.g., weeks 3-4) is unusably low, but for other periods, and for multi-month leads with NMME, precipitation and particularly temperature forecasts exhibit useful skill. Website: http://hydro.rap.ucar.edu/s2s/

Forecasting production in Liquid Rich Shale plays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikfarman, Hanieh

Production from Liquid Rich Shale (LRS) reservoirs is taking center stage in the exploration and production of unconventional reservoirs. Production from the low and ultra-low permeability LRS plays is possible only through multi-fractured horizontal wells (MFHW's). There is no existing workflow that is applicable to forecasting multi-phase production from MFHW's in LRS plays. This project presents a practical and rigorous workflow for forecasting multiphase production from MFHW's in LRS reservoirs. There has been much effort in developing workflows and methodology for forecasting in tight/shale plays in recent years. The existing workflows, however, are applicable only to single phase flow, and are primarily used in shale gas plays. These methodologies do not apply to the multi-phase flow that is inevitable in LRS plays. To account for complexities of multiphase flow in MFHW's the only available technique is dynamic modeling in compositional numerical simulators. These are time consuming and not practical when it comes to forecasting production and estimating reserves for a large number of producers. A workflow was developed, and validated by compositional numerical simulation. The workflow honors physics of flow, and is sufficiently accurate while practical so that an analyst can readily apply it to forecast production and estimate reserves in a large number of producers in a short period of time. To simplify the complex multiphase flow in MFHW, the workflow divides production periods into an initial period where large production and pressure declines are expected, and the subsequent period where production decline may converge into a common trend for a number of producers across an area of interest in the field. Initial period assumes the production is dominated by single-phase flow of oil and uses the tri-linear flow model of Erdal Ozkan to estimate the production history. Commercial software readily available can simulate flow and forecast production in this period. In the subsequent Period, dimensionless rate and dimensionless time functions are introduced that help identify transition from initial period into subsequent period. The production trends in terms of the dimensionless parameters converge for a range of rock permeability and stimulation intensity. This helps forecast production beyond transition to the end of life of well. This workflow is applicable to single fluid system.

Verifying Operational and Developmental Air Force Weather Cloud Analysis and Forecast Products Using Lidar Data from Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hildebrand, E. P.

2017-12-01

Air Force Weather has developed various cloud analysis and forecast products designed to support global Department of Defense (DoD) missions. A World-Wide Merged Cloud Analysis (WWMCA) and short term Advected Cloud (ADVCLD) forecast is generated hourly using data from 16 geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites. Additionally, WWMCA and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data are used in a statistical long-term (out to five days) cloud forecast model known as the Diagnostic Cloud Forecast (DCF). The WWMCA and ADVCLD are generated on the same polar stereographic 24 km grid for each hemisphere, whereas the DCF is generated on the same grid as its parent NWP model. When verifying the cloud forecast models, the goal is to understand not only the ability to detect cloud, but also the ability to assign it to the correct vertical layer. ADVCLD and DCF forecasts traditionally have been verified using WWMCA data as truth, but this might over-inflate the performance of those models because WWMCA also is a primary input dataset for those models. Because of this, in recent years, a WWMCA Reanalysis product has been developed, but this too is not a fully independent dataset. This year, work has been done to incorporate data from external, independent sources to verify not only the cloud forecast products, but the WWMCA data itself. One such dataset that has been useful for examining the 3-D performance of the cloud analysis and forecast models is Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data from various sites around the globe. This presentation will focus on the use of the Department of Energy (DoE) ARM data to verify Air Force Weather cloud analysis and forecast products. Results will be presented to show relative strengths and weaknesses of the analyses and forecasts.

AgRISTARS - Plans and first-year achievements. [Agriculture and Resources Inventory Surveys Through Aerospace Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, F. G.; Hogg, R. C.; Caudill, C. E.

1981-01-01

The results of the agriculture and resources inventory surveys through aerospace remote sensing (AgRISTARS) program managed by the USDA for exploring the use of satellite data for domestic and global commodity information needs are discussed. The program was intended to gather early warning of changes affecting production and quality of commodities and renewable resources, for predicting commodity production, land use classification and quantification, for inventories and assessments of renewable resources, land productivity measurements, assessment of conservation practices, and for pollution detection and impact evaluation. Up to 20 crop/region combinations in 7 countries were covered by the experiments, which comprised NOAA 6 and Landsat data analyses. Attempts to reduce variances through improved machine classification techniques are reported, together with soil moisture profiling, and the use of airborne sensors for providing comparative data.

Recent and Upcoming Changes to NOAA Marine Forecasts

Science.gov Websites

tropical cyclone forecast products effective on or about June 1, 2018 Updated: Continuing experimental around May 15, 2018 Updated: Continuing experimental status in offshore and high seas gridded forecasts been disestablished Discontinuing experimental text products used in the creation of the Tampa Bay

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE PRODUCTS VIA INTERNET

Science.gov Websites

! Boating Safety Beach Hazards Rip Currents Hypothermia Hurricanes Thunderstorms Lightning Coastal Flooding Text Forecasts and Products. For convenience, High Seas, Offshore and Coastal marine forecasts are available via the Internet for most U.S. coastal areas. Gridded forecast data for offshore and high seas

Improved Weather and Power Forecasts for Energy Operations - the German Research Project EWeLiNE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundgren, Kristina; Siefert, Malte; Hagedorn, Renate; Majewski, Detlev

2014-05-01

The German energy system is going through a fundamental change. Based on the energy plans of the German federal government, the share of electrical power production from renewables should increase to 35% by 2020. This means that, in the near future at certain times renewable energies will provide a major part of Germany's power production. Operating a power supply system with a large share of weather-dependent power sources in a secure way requires improved power forecasts. One of the most promising strategies to improve the existing wind power and PV power forecasts is to optimize the underlying weather forecasts and to enhance the collaboration between the meteorology and energy sectors. Deutscher Wetterdienst addresses these challenges in collaboration with Fraunhofer IWES within the research project EWeLiNE. The overarching goal of the project is to improve the wind and PV power forecasts by combining improved power forecast models and optimized weather forecasts. During the project, the numerical weather prediction models COSMO-DE and COSMO-DE-EPS (Ensemble Prediction System) by Deutscher Wetterdienst will be generally optimized towards improved wind power and PV forecasts. For instance, it will be investigated whether the assimilation of new types of data, e.g. power production data, can lead to improved weather forecasts. With regard to the probabilistic forecasts, the focus is on the generation of ensembles and ensemble calibration. One important aspect of the project is to integrate the probabilistic information into decision making processes by developing user-specified products. In this paper we give an overview of the project and present first results.

7 CFR 65.250 - Slaughter.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... OF BEEF, PORK, LAMB, CHICKEN, GOAT MEAT, PERISHABLE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, MACADAMIA NUTS, PECANS... a livestock animal (including chicken) is prepared into meat products (covered commodities) for human consumption. For purposes of labeling under this part, the word harvested may be used in lieu of...

Bayesian Networks to Compare Pest Control Interventions on Commodities Along Agricultural Production Chains.

PubMed

Holt, J; Leach, A W; Johnson, S; Tu, D M; Nhu, D T; Anh, N T; Quinlan, M M; Whittle, P J L; Mengersen, K; Mumford, J D

2018-02-01

The production of an agricultural commodity involves a sequence of processes: planting/growing, harvesting, sorting/grading, postharvest treatment, packing, and exporting. A Bayesian network has been developed to represent the level of potential infestation of an agricultural commodity by a specified pest along an agricultural production chain. It reflects the dependency of this infestation on the predicted level of pest challenge, the anticipated susceptibility of the commodity to the pest, the level of impact from pest control measures as designed, and any variation from that due to uncertainty in measure efficacy. The objective of this Bayesian network is to facilitate agreement between national governments of the exporters and importers on a set of phytosanitary measures to meet specific phytosanitary measure requirements to achieve target levels of protection against regulated pests. The model can be used to compare the performance of different combinations of measures under different scenarios of pest challenge, making use of available measure performance data. A case study is presented using a model developed for a fruit fly pest on dragon fruit in Vietnam; the model parameters and results are illustrative and do not imply a particular level of fruit fly infestation of these exports; rather, they provide the most likely, alternative, or worst-case scenarios of the impact of measures. As a means to facilitate agreement for trade, the model provides a framework to support communication between exporters and importers about any differences in perceptions of the risk reduction achieved by pest control measures deployed during the commodity production chain. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Improved Dust Forecast Products for Southwest Asia Forecasters through Dust Source Database Advancements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, G. R.

2011-12-01

Dust storm forecasting is a critical part of military theater operations in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as other strategic areas of the globe. The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) has been using the Dust Transport Application (DTA) as a forecasting tool since 2001. Initially developed by The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHUAPL), output products include dust concentration and reduction of visibility due to dust. The performance of the products depends on several factors including the underlying dust source database, treatment of soil moisture, parameterization of dust processes, and validity of the input atmospheric model data. Over many years of analysis, seasonal dust forecast biases of the DTA have been observed and documented. As these products are unique and indispensible for U.S. and NATO forces, amendments were required to provide the best forecasts possible. One of the quickest ways to scientifically address the dust concentration biases noted over time was to analyze the weaknesses in, and adjust the dust source database. Dust source database strengths and weaknesses, the satellite analysis and adjustment process, and tests which confirmed the resulting improvements in the final dust concentration and visibility products will be shown.

Improving Timeliness of Winter Wheat Production Forecast in United States of America, Ukraine and China Using MODIS Data and NCAR Growing Degree Day

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermote, E.; Franch, B.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Claverie, M.; Huang, J.; Zhang, J.; Sobrino, J. A.

2014-12-01

Wheat is the most important cereal crop traded on international markets and winter wheat constitutes approximately 80% of global wheat production. Thus, accurate and timely forecasts of its production are critical for informing agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) used an empirical generalized model for forecasting winter wheat production. Their approach combined BRDF-corrected daily surface reflectance from Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) with detailed official crop statistics and crop type masks. It is based on the relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at the peak of the growing season, percent wheat within the CMG pixel, and the final yields. This method predicts the yield approximately one month to six weeks prior to harvest. In this study, we include the Growing Degree Day (GDD) information extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to improve the winter wheat production forecast by increasing the timeliness of the forecasts while conserving the accuracy of the original model. We apply this modified model to three major wheat-producing countries: United States of America, Ukraine and China from 2001 to 2012. We show that a reliable forecast can be made between one month to a month and a half prior to the peak NDVI (meaning two months to two and a half months prior to harvest) while conserving an accuracy of 10% in the production forecast.

The Value of Humans in the Operational River Forecasting Enterprise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagano, T. C.

2012-04-01

The extent of human control over operational river forecasts, such as by adjusting model inputs and outputs, varies from nearly completely automated systems to those where forecasts are generated after discussion among a group of experts. Historical and realtime data availability, the complexity of hydrologic processes, forecast user needs, and forecasting institution support/resource availability (e.g. computing power, money for model maintenance) influence the character and effectiveness of operational forecasting systems. Automated data quality algorithms, if used at all, are typically very basic (e.g. checks for impossible values); substantial human effort is devoted to cleaning up forcing data using subjective methods. Similarly, although it is an active research topic, nearly all operational forecasting systems struggle to make quantitative use of Numerical Weather Prediction model-based precipitation forecasts, instead relying on the assessment of meteorologists. Conversely, while there is a strong tradition in meteorology of making raw model outputs available to forecast users via the Internet, this is rarely done in hydrology; Operational river forecasters express concerns about exposing users to raw guidance, due to the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. However, this limits the ability of users to build their confidence in operational products through their own value-added analyses. Forecasting agencies also struggle with provenance (i.e. documenting the production process and archiving the pieces that went into creating a forecast) although this is necessary for quantifying the benefits of human involvement in forecasting and diagnosing weak links in the forecasting chain. In hydrology, the space between model outputs and final operational products is nearly unstudied by the academic community, although some studies exist in other fields such as meteorology.

Energy service companies -- The sky's the limit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fraser, M.; Montross, C.

The term ESCO has a different meaning to different people. Increasingly, the term is used in its broadest sense to describe any company providing services related to a customer's energy acquisition and use. Previously, the term ESCO was synonymous with contractors who installed new equipment that was paid for by the energy cost savings that resulted. As a result of competition, restructuring and de-regulation of the electricity and gas sectors, the range of firms offering energy services now includes: local utilities using services to retain customers, remote utilities offering services to customers outside their franchise as a door opener tomore » future commodity sales, local and remote utilities who see services as a more lucrative growth opportunity than commodities or transportation of the commodity, facility managers taking advantage of outsourcing trends and using energy management to reduce costs, power marketers, power brokers, aggregators combining energy analysis to segment their customers with processes to identify potential conservation and load management opportunities, cogeneration developers, and agents who help their customers navigate the uncharted waters of the deregulated energy business. This paper will review the impact of the broader definition of ESCOs with a view toward forecasting future trends in the industry including consideration of the fact that the term, energy service, may, itself, be too narrow a definition for a successful business of industry.« less

The promise of air cargo: System aspects and vehicle design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitehead, A. H., Jr.

1976-01-01

The current operation of the air cargo system is reviewed. An assessment of the future of air cargo is provided by: (1) analyzing statistics and trends, (2) by noting system problems and inefficiencies, (3) by analyzing characteristics of 'air eligible' commodities, and (4) by showing the promise of new technology for future cargo aircraft with significant improvements in costs and efficiency. The following topics are discussed: (1) air cargo demand forecasts; (2) economics of air cargo transport; (3) the integrated air cargo system; (4) evolution of airfreighter design; and (5) the span distributed load concept.

Assessing the value of post-processed state-of-the-art long-term weather forecast ensembles for agricultural water management mediated by farmers' behaviours

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yu; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

2016-04-01

Recent advances in modelling of coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics significantly improved skills of long-term climate forecast from global circulation models (GCMs). These more accurate weather predictions are supposed to be a valuable support to farmers in optimizing farming operations (e.g. crop choice, cropping and watering time) and for more effectively coping with the adverse impacts of climate variability. Yet, assessing how actually valuable this information can be to a farmer is not straightforward and farmers' response must be taken into consideration. Indeed, in the context of agricultural systems potentially useful forecast information should alter stakeholders' expectation, modify their decisions, and ultimately produce an impact on their performance. Nevertheless, long-term forecast are mostly evaluated in terms of accuracy (i.e., forecast quality) by comparing hindcast and observed values and only few studies investigated the operational value of forecast looking at the gain of utility within the decision-making context, e.g. by considering the derivative of forecast information, such as simulated crop yields or simulated soil moisture, which are essential to farmers' decision-making process. In this study, we contribute a step further in the assessment of the operational value of long-term weather forecasts products by embedding these latter into farmers' behavioral models. This allows a more critical assessment of the forecast value mediated by the end-users' perspective, including farmers' risk attitudes and behavioral patterns. Specifically, we evaluate the operational value of thirteen state-of-the-art long-range forecast products against climatology forecast and empirical prediction (i.e. past year climate and historical average) within an integrated agronomic modeling framework embedding an implicit model of the farmers' decision-making process. Raw ensemble datasets are bias-corrected and downscaled using a stochastic weather generator, in order to address the mismatch of the spatio-temporal scale between forecast data from GCMs and our model. For each product, the experiment is composed by two cascade simulations: 1) an ex-ante simulation using forecast data, and 2) an ex-post simulation with observations. Multi-year simulations are performed to account for climate variability, and the operational value of the different forecast products is evaluated against the perfect foresight on the basis of expected crop productivity as well as the final decisions under different decision-making criterions. Our results show that not all products generate beneficial effects to farmers' performance, and the forecast errors might be amplified due to farmers' decision-making process and risk attitudes, yielding little or even worse performance compared with the empirical approaches.

Historical statistics for mineral and material commodities in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelly, Thomas; Matos, Grecia; with Buckingham, David; DiFrancesco, Carl; Porter, Kenneth; Berry, Cyrus; Crane, Melissa; Goonan, Thomas; Sznopek, John

2005-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides information to the public and to policy-makers concerning the current use and flow of minerals and materials in the United States economy. The USGS collects, analyzes, and disseminates minerals information on most nonfuel mineral commodities.This USGS digital database is an online compilation of historical U.S. statistics on mineral and material commodities. The database contains information on approximately 90 mineral commodities, including production, imports, exports, and stocks; reported and apparent consumption; and unit value (the real and nominal price in U.S. dollars of a metric ton of apparent consumption). For many of the commodities, data are reported as far back as 1900. Each commodity file includes a document that describes the units of measure, defines terms, and lists USGS contacts for additional information End-use tables complement these statistics by supplying, for most of these commodities, information about the distribution of apparent consumption.This publication draws on more than 125 years of minerals information experience. At the request of the 47th Congress of the United States (1882; 22 Stat. 329), the U.S. Government began the collection and public distribution of these types of data. The Federal agencies responsible for the collection of the data have changed through time. For the years 1882-1924, the USGS collected and published these data; the U.S. Bureau of Mines (USBM) performed these tasks from 1925-95; and in 1996, the responsibilities once again passed to the USGS (following the closure of the USBM) (Mlynarski, 1998).The USGS collects data on a monthly, quarterly, semiannual, and annual basis from more than 18,000 minerals-related producer and consumer establishments that cooperate with the USGS. These companies voluntarily complete about 40,000 canvass forms that survey production, consumption, recycling, stocks, shipments, and other essential information. Data are also gathered from site visits, memberships on domestic and international minerals-related committees, and coordination with other government organizations and trade associations.The USGS makes this information available through published products, including monthly, quarterly, and annual Mineral Industry Surveys, the annual Minerals Yearbook (MYB), the annual Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS), and special mineral commodity studies, including the history of metal prices and materials flow studies. 

Agroclimate.Org: Tools and Information for a Climate Resilient Agriculture in the Southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraisse, C.

2014-12-01

AgroClimate (http://agroclimate.org) is a web-based system developed to help the agricultural industry in the southeastern USA reduce risks associated with climate variability and change. It includes climate related information and dynamic application tools that interact with a climate and crop database system. Information available includes climate monitoring and forecasts combined with information about crop management practices that help increase the resiliency of the agricultural industry in the region. Recently we have included smartphone apps in the AgroClimate suite of tools, including irrigation management and crop disease alert systems. Decision support tools available in AgroClimate include: (a) Climate risk: expected (probabilistic) and historical climate information and freeze risk; (b) Crop yield risk: expected yield based on soil type, planting date, and basic management practices for selected commodities and historical county yield databases; (c) Crop diseases: disease risk monitoring and forecasting for strawberry and citrus; (d) Crop development: monitoring and forecasting of growing degree-days and chill accumulation; (e) Drought: monitoring and forecasting of selected drought indices, (f) Footprints: Carbon and water footprint calculators. The system also provides background information about the main drivers of climate variability and basic information about climate change in the Southeast USA. AgroClimate has been widely used as an educational tool by the Cooperative Extension Services in the region and also by producers. It is now being replicated internationally with version implemented in Mozambique and Paraguay.

78 FR 77439 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request: Part 41, Relating...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-23

... the proposed Information Collection Request (ICR) titled: Part 41, Relating to Security Futures... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request: Part 41, Relating to Security Futures Products AGENCY: Commodity Futures Trading...

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Active Aeration, Horizontal Stacks, 8 Hours or Less

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Active Aeration, No Stack, More than 8 Hours

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Active Aeration, No Stack, 8 Hours or Less

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR BIOETHANOL RECOVERY USING MEMBRANE PROCESSES

EPA Science Inventory

Petroleum is currently used as the starting material for many commodity chemicals and fuels, but the prospect of dwindling oil supplies, reliance on unpredictable oil sources, and the carbon balance of the planet are concerns. Sustainable production of commodity chemicals and bi...

Supplier Short Term Load Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression and Exogenous Input

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matijaš, Marin; Vukićcević, Milan; Krajcar, Slavko

2011-09-01

In power systems, task of load forecasting is important for keeping equilibrium between production and consumption. With liberalization of electricity markets, task of load forecasting changed because each market participant has to forecast their own load. Consumption of end-consumers is stochastic in nature. Due to competition, suppliers are not in a position to transfer their costs to end-consumers; therefore it is essential to keep forecasting error as low as possible. Numerous papers are investigating load forecasting from the perspective of the grid or production planning. We research forecasting models from the perspective of a supplier. In this paper, we investigate different combinations of exogenous input on the simulated supplier loads and show that using points of delivery as a feature for Support Vector Regression leads to lower forecasting error, while adding customer number in different datasets does the opposite.

Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center: Transitioning Satellite Data to Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley

2012-01-01

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center located at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center has been conducting testbed activities aimed at transitioning satellite products to National Weather Service operational end users for the last 10 years. SPoRT is a NASA/NOAA funded project that has set the bar for transition of products to operational end users through a paradigm of understanding forecast challenges and forecaster needs, displaying products in end users decision support systems, actively assessing the operational impact of these products, and improving products based on forecaster feedback. Aiming for quality partnerships rather than a large quantity of data users, SPoRT has become a community leader in training operational forecasters on the use of up-and-coming satellite data through the use of legacy instruments and proxy data. Traditionally, SPoRT has supplied satellite imagery and products from NASA instruments such as the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). However, recently, SPoRT has been funded by the GOES-R and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Proving Grounds to accelerate the transition of selected imagery and products to help improve forecaster awareness of upcoming operational data from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), and Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). This presentation provides background on the SPoRT Center, the SPoRT paradigm, and some example products that SPoRT is excited to work with forecasters to evaluate.

Balancing detail and scale in assessing transparency to improve the governance of agricultural commodity supply chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godar, Javier; Suavet, Clément; Gardner, Toby A.; Dawkins, Elena; Meyfroidt, Patrick

2016-03-01

To date, assessments of the sustainability of agricultural commodity supply chains have largely relied on some combination of macro-scale footprint accounts, detailed life-cycle analyses and fine-scale traceability systems. Yet these approaches are limited in their ability to support the sustainability governance of agricultural supply chains, whether because they are intended for coarser-grained analyses, do not identify individual actors, or are too costly to be implemented in a consistent manner for an entire region of production. Here we illustrate some of the advantages of a complementary middle-ground approach that balances detail and scale of supply chain transparency information by combining consistent country-wide data on commodity production at the sub-national (e.g. municipal) level with per shipment customs data to describe trade flows of a given commodity covering all companies and production regions within that country. This approach can support supply chain governance in two key ways. First, enhanced spatial resolution of the production regions that connect to individual supply chains allows for a more accurate consideration of geographic variability in measures of risk and performance that are associated with different production practices. Second, identification of key actors that operate within a specific supply chain, including producers, traders, shippers and consumers can help discriminate coalitions of actors that have shared stake in a particular region, and that together are capable of delivering more cost-effective and coordinated interventions. We illustrate the potential of this approach with examples from Brazil, Indonesia and Colombia. We discuss how transparency information can deepen understanding of the environmental and social impacts of commodity production systems, how benefits are distributed among actors, and some of the trade-offs involved in efforts to improve supply chain sustainability. We then discuss the challenges and opportunities of our approach to strengthen supply chain governance and leverage more effective and fair accountability systems.

Impact of global financial crisis on stylized facts between energy markets and stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, Tan Kim; Cheong, Chin Wen; Hooi, Tan Siow

2014-06-01

Understanding the stylized facts is extremely important and has becomes a hot issue nowadays. However, recent global financial crisis that started from United States had spread all over the world and adversely affected the commodities and financial sectors of both developed and developing countries. This paper tends to examine the impact of crisis on stylized facts between energy and stock markets using ARCH-family models based on the experience over 2008 global financial crisis. Empirical results denote that there is long lasting, persists and positively significant the autocorrelation function of absolute returns and their squares in both markets for before and during crisis. Besides that, leverage effects are found in stock markets whereby bad news has a greater impact on volatility than good news for both before and during crisis. However, crisis does not indicate any impact on risk-return tradeoff for both energy and stock markets. For forecasting evaluations, GARCH model and FIAPARCH model indicate superior out of sample forecasts for before and during crisis respectively.

International trade standards for commodities and products derived from animals: the need for a system that integrates food safety and animal disease risk management.

PubMed

Thomson, G R; Penrith, M-L; Atkinson, M W; Thalwitzer, S; Mancuso, A; Atkinson, S J; Osofsky, S A

2013-12-01

A case is made for greater emphasis to be placed on value chain management as an alternative to geographically based disease risk mitigation for trade in commodities and products derived from animals. The geographic approach is dependent upon achievement of freedom in countries or zones from infectious agents that cause so-called transboundary animal diseases, while value chain-based risk management depends upon mitigation of animal disease hazards potentially associated with specific commodities or products irrespective of the locality of production. This commodity-specific approach is founded on the same principles upon which international food safety standards are based, viz. hazard analysis critical control points (HACCP). Broader acceptance of a value chain approach enables animal disease risk management to be combined with food safety management by the integration of commodity-based trade and HACCP methodologies and thereby facilitates 'farm to fork' quality assurance. The latter is increasingly recognized as indispensable to food safety assurance and is therefore a pre-condition to safe trade. The biological principles upon which HACCP and commodity-based trade are based are essentially identical, potentially simplifying sanitary control in contrast to current separate international sanitary standards for food safety and animal disease risks that are difficult to reconcile. A value chain approach would not only enable more effective integration of food safety and animal disease risk management of foodstuffs derived from animals but would also ameliorate adverse environmental and associated socio-economic consequences of current sanitary standards based on the geographic distribution of animal infections. This is especially the case where vast veterinary cordon fencing systems are relied upon to separate livestock and wildlife as is the case in much of southern Africa. A value chain approach would thus be particularly beneficial to under-developed regions of the world such as southern Africa specifically and sub-Saharan Africa more generally where it would reduce incompatibility between attempts to expand and commercialize livestock production and the need to conserve the subcontinent's unparalleled wildlife and wilderness resources. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Nanotechnology - An emerging technology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buckingham, D.

2007-01-01

The science of nanotechnology is still in its infancy. However, progress is being made in research and development of potential beneficial properties of nanomaterials that could play an integral part in the development of new and changing uses for mineral commodities. Nanotechnology is a kind of toolbox that allows industry to make nanomaterials and nanostructures with special properties. New nanotechnology applications of mineral commodities in their nanoscale form are being discovered, researched and developed. At the same time, there is continued research into environmental, human health and safety concerns that inherently arise from the development of a new technology. Except for a few nanomaterials (CNTs, copper, silver and zinc oxide), widespread applications are hampered by processing and suitable commercial-scale production techniques, high manufacturing costs, product price, and environmental, and human health and safety concerns. Whether nanotechnology causes a tidal wave of change or is a long-term evolutionary process of technology, new applications of familiar mineral commodities will be created. As research and development continues, the ability to manipulate matter at the nanoscale into increasingly sophisticated nanomaterials will improve and open up new possibilities for industry that will change the flow and use of mineral commodities and the materials and products that are used.

Black bear depredation on agricultural commodities in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jonker, S.A.; Parkhurst, J.A.; Field, R.; Fuller, T.K.

1998-01-01

We used response to a mail survey (n = 848) to evaluate the extent and severity of depredation by black bears (Ursus americanus) on agricultural commodities in Massachusetts and to assess producers' attitudes toward and tolerance of bear depredation. Damage abatement techniques were ranked for effectiveness by producers of corn, bees and honey, and livestock and dairy products. Results showed differences in perception of effects of bear depredation among commodity groups. Producers of corn and livestock and dairy products considered bear damage to be low to moderate in severity whereas beekeepers thought their losses were substantial or severe. Most estimates of economic loss were <$1,000 per year. Respondents considered bears to be an inconvenience, but thought they should remain a part of our natural heritage. There was no significant relationship between producers' experience with or economic dependence on their product and their attitude toward bears or their tolerance of bear damage. We conclude that there is need for effective education programs for agricultural producers, strengthened working relationships between producers and state fish and wildlife agencies, incorporation of producers' suggestions into management decisions, and investment in effective, economical, and long-term solutions to bear depredations for each affected commodity group.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Products Operational Forecast Graphics Experimental Forecast Graphics Verification and Diagnostics Model PARALLEL/EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FORECAST GRAPHICS OPERATIONAL VERIFICATION / DIAGNOSTICS PARALLEL VERIFICATION Developmental Air Quality Forecasts and Verification Back to Table of Contents 2. PARALLEL/EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICS

Development of an industrializable fermentation process for propionic acid production.

PubMed

Stowers, Chris C; Cox, Brad M; Rodriguez, Brandon A

2014-05-01

Propionic acid (PA) is a short-chain fatty acid with wide industrial application including uses in pharmaceuticals, herbicides, cosmetics, and food preservatives. As a three-carbon building block, PA also has potential as a precursor for high-volume commodity chemicals such as propylene. Currently, most PA is manufactured through petrochemical routes, which can be tied to increasing prices and volatility due to difficulty in demand forecasting and feedstock availability. Herein described are research advancements to develop an industrially feasible, renewable route to PA. Seventeen Propionibacterium strains were screened using glucose and sucrose as the carbon source to identify the best platform strain. Propionibacterium acidipropionici ATCC 4875 was selected as the platform strain and subsequent fermentation optimization studies were performed to maximize productivity and yield. Fermentation productivity was improved three-fold to exceed 2 g/l/h by densifying the inoculum source. Byproduct levels, particularly lactic and succinic acid, were reduced by optimizing fermentor headspace pressure and shear. Following achievement of commercially viable productivities, the lab-grade medium components were replaced with industrial counterparts to further reduce fermentation costs. A pure enzymatically treated corn mash (ECM) medium improved the apparent PA yield to 0.6 g/g (PA produced/glucose consumed), but it came at the cost of reduced productivity. Supplementation of ECM with cyanocobalamin restored productivity to near lab-grade media levels. The optimized ECM recipe achieved a productivity of 0.5 g/l/h with an apparent PA yield of 0.60 g/g corresponding to a media cost <1 USD/kg of PA. These improvements significantly narrow the gap between the fermentation and incumbent petrochemical processes, which is estimated to have a manufacturing cost of 0.82 USD/kg in 2017.

Evaluation of the product ratio coherent model in forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy at births by States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shair, Syazreen Niza; Yusof, Aida Yuzi; Asmuni, Nurin Haniah

2017-05-01

Coherent mortality forecasting models have recently received increasing attention particularly in their application to sub-populations. The advantage of coherent models over independent models is the ability to forecast a non-divergent mortality for two or more sub-populations. One of the coherent models was recently developed by [1] known as the product-ratio model. This model is an extension version of the functional independent model from [2]. The product-ratio model has been applied in a developed country, Australia [1] and has been extended in a developing nation, Malaysia [3]. While [3] accounted for coherency of mortality rates between gender and ethnic group, the coherency between states in Malaysia has never been explored. This paper will forecast the mortality rates of Malaysian sub-populations according to states using the product ratio coherent model and its independent version— the functional independent model. The forecast accuracies of two different models are evaluated using the out-of-sample error measurements— the mean absolute forecast error (MAFE) for age-specific death rates and the mean forecast error (MFE) for the life expectancy at birth. We employ Malaysian mortality time series data from 1991 to 2014, segregated by age, gender and states.

7 CFR 251.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... following categories: (i) Emergency feeding organizations (including food banks, food pantries and soup... of food or edible commodities, or the products of food or edible commodities, to food pantries, soup... into an agreement with the United States Department of Agriculture under § 251.2(c). (j) Soup kitchen...

The UN Commission on Life Saving Commodities 3 years on: global progress update and results of a multicountry assessment.

PubMed

Pronyk, Paul M; Nemser, Bennett; Maliqi, Blerta; Springstubb, Nora; Sera, Diana; Karimov, Rouslan; Katwan, Elizabeth; Walter, Benedicte; Bijleveld, Pascal

2016-04-01

In September, 2012, the UN Commission on Life Saving Commodities (UNCoLSC) outlined a plan to expand availability and access to 13 life saving commodities. We profile global and country progress against these recommendations between 2012 and 2015. For 12 countries in sub-Saharan Africa that were off-track to achieve the Millennium Development Goals for maternal and child survival, we reviewed key documents and reference data, and conducted interviews with ministry staff and partners to assess the status of the UNCoLSC recommendations. The RMNCH fund provided short-term catalytic financing to support country plans to advance the commodity agenda, with activities coded by UNCoLSC recommendation. Our network of technical resource teams identified, addressed, and monitored progress against cross-cutting commodity-related challenges that needed coordinated global action. In 2014 and 2015, child and maternal health commodities had fewer bottlenecks than reproductive and neonatal commodities. Common bottlenecks included regulatory challenges (ten of 12 countries); poor quality assurance (11 of 12 countries); insufficient staff training (more than half of facilities on average); and weak supply chains systems (11 of 12 countries), with stock-outs of priority commodities in about 40% of facilities on average. The RMNCH fund committed US$175·7 million to 19 countries to support strategies addressing crucial gaps. $68·2 million (39·0%) of the funds supported systems-strengthening interventions with the remainder split across reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health. Health worker training ($88·6 million, 50·4%), supply chain ($53·3 million, 30·0%), and demand generation ($21·1 million, 12·0%) were the major topics of focus. All priority commodities are now listed in the WHO Essential Medicines List; appropriate price reductions were secured; quality manufacturing was improved; a fast-track registration mechanism for prequalified products was established; and methods were developed for advocacy, quantification, demand generation, supply chain, and provider training. Slower progress was evident around regulatory harmonisation and quality assurance. Much work is needed to achieve full implementation of the UNCoLSC recommendations. Coordinated efforts to secure price reductions beyond the 13 commodities and improve regulatory efficiency, quality, and supply chains are still needed alongside broader dissemination of work products. Governments of Norway (NORAD) and the UK (DFID). Copyright © 2015 World Health Organization; licensee Elsevier. This is an Open Access article published without any waiver of WHO's privileges and immunities under international law, convention, or agreement. This Article should not be reproduced for use in association with the promotion of commercial products, services, or any legal entity. There should be no suggestion that WHO endorses any specific organisation or products. The use of the WHO logo is not permitted. This notice should be preserved along with the Article's original URL.

IN31A-1734 Development and Evaluation of a Gridded CrIS/ATMS Visualization for Operational Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley; Smith, Nadia; Dostalek, Jack; Stevens, Eric; Nelson, Kristine; Weisz, Elisabeth; Berndt, Emily; Line, Bill; Barnet, Chris; Gambacorta, Antonia;

Computerized commodity management system in Thailand and Brazil.

PubMed

1984-01-01

Thailand's National Family Planning Program is testing a computerized contraceptive commodity reporting management in 4 provinces with 104 National Family Planning Program (NFPP) reporting entities. Staff in the Brazilian Association of Family Planning Entities (ABEPF) and CPAIMC, a major family planning service agency, have been trained in the use of a computerized commodity distribution management system and are ready to initiate test use. The systems were designed in response to specific commodity management needs of the concerned organizations. Neither distribution program functions as a contraceptive social marketing (CSM) program, but each system reviewed has aspects that are relevant to CSM commodity management needs. Both the Thai and Brazilian systems were designed to be as automatic and user friendly as possible. Both have 3 main databases and perform similar management and reporting functions. Differing program configurations and basic data forms reflect the specific purposes of each system. Databases for the logistics monitoring system in Thailand arethe reporting entity (or ID) file; the current month's data file; and the master balance file. The data source is the basic reporting form that also serves as a Request and Issue Voucher for commodities. Editing functions in the program check to see that the current "beginning balance" equals the previous month's ending balance. Indexing functions in the system allow direct access to the records of any reporting entity via the ID number, as well as the sequential processing of records by ID number. 6 reports can be generated: status report by issuing entity; status report by dispensing entity; aggregate status report; out of compliance products report; out of compliance outlets report; and suggested shipment to regional warehouse report. Databases for the distribution management system in Brazil are: the name-ID (client institution) file; the product file; and the data file. The data source is an order form that contains a client code similar to the code used in Thailand. An interrogative data entry program enhances the management function of the system. 8 reports can be individually issued: a status report on back orders by product; a status report on back orders by institution and product; a historical report of year to date shipments and value by product; a historical report of year to date shipments by client and product; year to date payment reports from each client; outstanding invoices by month for the previous 12 months; a product report showing the amount of each product or order with outstanding invoices; and a stock position report.

Impact of High Resolution SST Data on Regional Weather Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary J.; Case, Jonathon; LaFontaine, Frank; Vazquez, Jorge; Mattocks, Craig

2010-01-01

Past studies have shown that the use of coarse resolution SST products such as from the real-time global (RTG) SST analysis[1] or other coarse resolution once-a-day products do not properly portray the diurnal variability of fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean that drive the formation of low level clouds and precipitation over the ocean. For example, the use of high resolution MODIS SST composite [2] to initialize the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) (ARW) [3] has been shown to improve the prediction of sensible weather parameters in coastal regions [4][5}. In an extend study, [6] compared the MODIS SST composite product to the RTG SST analysis and evaluated forecast differences for a 6 month period from March through August 2007 over the Florida coastal regions. In a comparison to buoy data, they found that that the MODIS SST composites reduced the bias and standard deviation over that of the RTG data. These improvements led to significant changes in the initial and forecasted heat fluxes and the resulting surface temperature fields, wind patterns, and cloud distributions. They also showed that the MODIS composite SST product, produced for the Terra and Aqua satellite overpass times, captured a component of the diurnal cycle in SSTs not represented in the RTG or other one-a-day SST analyses. Failure to properly incorporate these effects in the WRF initialization cycle led to temperature biases in the resulting short term forecasts. The forecast impact was limited in some situations however, due to composite product inaccuracies brought about by data latency during periods of long-term cloud cover. This paper focuses on the forecast impact of an enhanced MODIS/AMSR-E composite SST product designed to reduce inaccuracies due data latency in the MODIS only composite product.

Alaska North Slope regional gas hydrate production modeling forecasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, S.J.; Hunter, R.B.; Collett, T.S.; Hancock, S.; Boswell, R.; Anderson, B.J.

2011-01-01

A series of gas hydrate development scenarios were created to assess the range of outcomes predicted for the possible development of the "Eileen" gas hydrate accumulation, North Slope, Alaska. Production forecasts for the "reference case" were built using the 2002 Mallik production tests, mechanistic simulation, and geologic studies conducted by the US Geological Survey. Three additional scenarios were considered: A "downside-scenario" which fails to identify viable production, an "upside-scenario" describes results that are better than expected. To capture the full range of possible outcomes and balance the downside case, an "extreme upside scenario" assumes each well is exceptionally productive.Starting with a representative type-well simulation forecasts, field development timing is applied and the sum of individual well forecasts creating the field-wide production forecast. This technique is commonly used to schedule large-scale resource plays where drilling schedules are complex and production forecasts must account for many changing parameters. The complementary forecasts of rig count, capital investment, and cash flow can be used in a pre-appraisal assessment of potential commercial viability.Since no significant gas sales are currently possible on the North Slope of Alaska, typical parameters were used to create downside, reference, and upside case forecasts that predict from 0 to 71??BM3 (2.5??tcf) of gas may be produced in 20 years and nearly 283??BM3 (10??tcf) ultimate recovery after 100 years.Outlining a range of possible outcomes enables decision makers to visualize the pace and milestones that will be required to evaluate gas hydrate resource development in the Eileen accumulation. Critical values of peak production rate, time to meaningful production volumes, and investments required to rule out a downside case are provided. Upside cases identify potential if both depressurization and thermal stimulation yield positive results. An "extreme upside" case captures the full potential of unconstrained development with widely spaced wells. The results of this study indicate that recoverable gas hydrate resources may exist in the Eileen accumulation and that it represents a good opportunity for continued research. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Current Status of Mycotoxin Contamination of Food Commodities in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Nleya, Nancy; Adetunji, Modupeade Christianah; Mwanza, Mulunda

2018-05-03

Agricultural products, especially cereal grains, serve as staple foods in sub-Saharan Africa. However, climatic conditions in this region can lead to contamination of these commodities by moulds, with subsequent production of mycotoxins posing health risks to both humans and animals. There is limited documentation on the occurrence of mycotoxins in sub-Saharan African countries, leading to the exposure of their populations to a wide variety of mycotoxins through consumption of contaminated foods. This review aims at highlighting the current status of mycotoxin contamination of food products in Zimbabwe and recommended strategies of reducing this problem. Zimbabwe is one of the African countries with very little information with regards to mycotoxin contamination of its food commodities, both on the market and at household levels. Even though evidence of multitoxin occurrence in some food commodities such as maize and other staple foods exist, available published research focuses only on Aspergillus and Fusarium mycotoxins, namely aflatoxins, deoxynivalenol (DON), trichothecenes, fumonisins, and zearalenone (ZEA). Occurrence of mycotoxins in the food chain has been mainly associated with poor agricultural practices. Analysis of mycotoxins has been done mainly using chromatographic and immunological methods. Zimbabwe has adopted European standards, but the legislation is quite flexible, with testing for mycotoxin contamination in food commodities being done voluntarily or upon request. Therefore, the country needs to tighten its legislation as well as adopt stricter standards that will improve the food safety and security of the masses.

Effect of temperature and commodity on insecticidal efficacy of spinosad dust against Sitophilus oryzae (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) and Rhyzopertha dominica (Coleoptera: Bostrychidae).

PubMed

Athanassiou, Christos G; Kavallieratos, Nickolas G; Chintzoglou, George J; Peteinatos, Gerassimos G; Boukouvala, Maria C; Petrou, Stamatina S; Panoussakis, Emmanouel C

2008-06-01

The insecticidal effect of spinosad dust, a formulation that contains 0.125% spinosad, was evaluated against adults of Sitophilus oryzae (L.) and Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) at three temperature levels (20, 25, and 30 degrees C) and four commodities (wheat, Triticum aestivum L.; barley, Hordeum vulgare L.; rice, Oryza sativa L.; and maize, Zea mays L.). For this purpose, quantities of the above-mentioned grains were treated with spinosad at two dose rates (20 and 50 ppm of the formulation, corresponding to 0.025 and 0.06 ppm AI, respectively), and mortality of the exposed adults in the treated grains was measured after 7 and 14 d, whereas progeny production was assessed 65 d later. Generally, for both species, mortality increased with dose, exposure interval, and temperature. For S. oryzae, adult survival and progeny production were lower on wheat than the other grains. After 14 d of exposure, mortality of S. oryzae adults on wheat treated with 50 ppm ranged between 61 and 98%, whereas in the other three commodities it did not exceed 42%. Mortality of R. dominica after 14 d on grains treated 50 ppm ranged between 91 and 100%. For this species, progeny production from exposed parental adults was low in all commodities regardless of temperature. Results indicate that spinosad dust can be used as an alternative to traditional grain protectants, but its effectiveness is highly determined by the target species, commodity, dose, and temperature.

Short time ahead wind power production forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapronova, Alla; Meissner, Catherine; Mana, Matteo

2016-09-01

An accurate prediction of wind power output is crucial for efficient coordination of cooperative energy production from different sources. Long-time ahead prediction (from 6 to 24 hours) of wind power for onshore parks can be achieved by using a coupled model that would bridge the mesoscale weather prediction data and computational fluid dynamics. When a forecast for shorter time horizon (less than one hour ahead) is anticipated, an accuracy of a predictive model that utilizes hourly weather data is decreasing. That is because the higher frequency fluctuations of the wind speed are lost when data is averaged over an hour. Since the wind speed can vary up to 50% in magnitude over a period of 5 minutes, the higher frequency variations of wind speed and direction have to be taken into account for an accurate short-term ahead energy production forecast. In this work a new model for wind power production forecast 5- to 30-minutes ahead is presented. The model is based on machine learning techniques and categorization approach and using the historical park production time series and hourly numerical weather forecast.

Global stocks of selected mineral-based commodities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilburn, David R.; Bleiwas, Donald I.; Karl, Nick A.

2016-12-05

IntroductionThe U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, analyzes mineral and metal supply chains by identifying and describing major components of mineral and material flows from ore extraction, through intermediate forms, to a final product. This report focuses on an important component of the world’s supply chain: the amounts and global distribution of major consumer, producer, and exchange stocks of selected mineral commodities. In this report, the term “stock” is used instead of “inventory” and refers to accumulations of mined ore, intermediate products, and refined mineral-based commodities that are in a form that meets the agreed-upon specifications of a buyer or processor of intermediate products. These may include certain ores such as bauxite, concentrates, smelter products, and refined metals. Materials sometimes referred to as inventory for accounting purposes, such as ore contained in a deposit or in a leach pile, or materials that need to be further processed before they can be shipped to a consumer, are not considered. Stocks may be held (owned) by consumers, governments, investors, producers, and traders. They may serve as (1) a means to achieve economic, social, and strategic goals through government policies; (2) a secure source of supply to meet demand and to mitigate potential shortages in the supply chain; (3) a hedge to mitigate price volatility; and (4) vehicles for speculative investment.The paucity and uneven reliability of data for stocks of ores and concentrates and for material held by producers, consumers, and merchants hinder the accurate estimating of the size and distribution of this portion of the supply chain for certain commodities. This paper reviews the more visible stocks held in commodity exchange warehouses distributed throughout the world.

17 CFR 40.6 - Self-certification of rules.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... calculated solely for use in connection with futures or option trading and such changes do not affect... in connection with a futures or option product; (iv) Option contract terms. Changes to option.... 40.6 Section 40.6 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION PROVISIONS...

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Active Aeration, Attached Vertical Stacks, More than 8 hours, 10 Foot Stack Height

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Active Aeration, Attached Vertical Stacks , 8 Hours or Less, 10 Foot Stack Height

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

46 CFR 531.10 - Excepted and exempted commodities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... United States and foreign countries. (2) Department of Defense cargo. Transportation of U.S. Department...; (2) Forest products; (3) Recycled metal scrap; (4) New assembled motor vehicles; and (5) Waste paper or paper waste. (b) Commission exemptions. The following commodities and/or services are not subject...

46 CFR 531.10 - Excepted and exempted commodities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... United States and foreign countries. (2) Department of Defense cargo. Transportation of U.S. Department...; (2) Forest products; (3) Recycled metal scrap; (4) New assembled motor vehicles; and (5) Waste paper or paper waste. (b) Commission exemptions. The following commodities and/or services are not subject...

46 CFR 531.10 - Excepted and exempted commodities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... United States and foreign countries. (2) Department of Defense cargo. Transportation of U.S. Department...; (2) Forest products; (3) Recycled metal scrap; (4) New assembled motor vehicles; and (5) Waste paper or paper waste. (b) Commission exemptions. The following commodities and/or services are not subject...

46 CFR 531.10 - Excepted and exempted commodities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... United States and foreign countries. (2) Department of Defense cargo. Transportation of U.S. Department...; (2) Forest products; (3) Recycled metal scrap; (4) New assembled motor vehicles; and (5) Waste paper or paper waste. (b) Commission exemptions. The following commodities and/or services are not subject...

46 CFR 531.10 - Excepted and exempted commodities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... United States and foreign countries. (2) Department of Defense cargo. Transportation of U.S. Department...; (2) Forest products; (3) Recycled metal scrap; (4) New assembled motor vehicles; and (5) Waste paper or paper waste. (b) Commission exemptions. The following commodities and/or services are not subject...

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Active Aeration, Attached Vertical Stacks, 8 Hours or Less, 50 Foot Stack Height

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Active Aeration, Attached Vertical Stacks , 8 Hours or Less, 25 Foot Stack Height

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) 1997 - U.S. Summary : Place of Residence by Place of Work Data.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

This CD presents data and information from the 1997 Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) on the movement of goods and products shipped by manufacturing, mining, wholesale, and selected retail establishments in the United States. The data cover domestic shipme...

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Active Aeration, Attached Vertical Stacks, More than 8 hours, 25 Foot Stack Height

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Active Aeration, Attached Vertical Stacks, More than 8 hours, 50 Foot Stack Height

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

Supply of and demand for selected energy related mineral commodities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sibley, Scott F.

2010-01-01

In this report, subjects discussed include components of mineral supply, production, and consumption data, and information on selected mineral commodities in which the Energy Critical Elements Study Group has an interest, and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recycling studies, with some results of these studies.

Development, Application, and Transition of Aerosol and Trace Gas Products Derived from Next-Generation Satellite Observations to Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, Emily; Naeger, Aaron; Zavodsky, Bradley; McGrath, Kevin; LaFontaine, Frank

2016-01-01

NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has a history of successfully transitioning unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community to improve short-term forecasts. SPoRTstrives to bridge the gap between research and operations by maintaining interactive partnerships with end users to develop products that match specific forecast challenges, provide training, and assess the products in the operational environment. This presentation focuses on recent product development, application, and transition of aerosol and trace gas products to operations for specific forecasting applications. Recent activities relating to the SPoRT ozone products, aerosol optical depth composite product, sulfur dioxide, and aerosol index products are discussed.

Forecasting wheat and barley crop production in arid and semi-arid regions using remotely sensed primary productivity and crop phenology: A case study in Iraq.

PubMed

Qader, Sarchil Hama; Dash, Jadunandan; Atkinson, Peter M

2018-02-01

Crop production and yield estimation using remotely sensed data have been studied widely, but such information is generally scarce in arid and semi-arid regions. In these regions, inter-annual variation in climatic factors (such as rainfall) combined with anthropogenic factors (such as civil war) pose major risks to food security. Thus, an operational crop production estimation and forecasting system is required to help decision-makers to make early estimates of potential food availability. Data from NASA's MODIS with official crop statistics were combined to develop an empirical regression-based model to forecast winter wheat and barley production in Iraq. The study explores remotely sensed indices representing crop productivity over the crop growing season to find the optimal correlation with crop production. The potential of three different remotely sensed indices, and information related to the phenology of crops, for forecasting crop production at the governorate level was tested and their results were validated using the leave-one-year-out approach. Despite testing several methodological approaches, and extensive spatio-temporal analysis, this paper depicts the difficulty in estimating crop yield on an annual base using current satellite low-resolution data. However, more precise estimates of crop production were possible. The result of the current research implies that the date of the maximum vegetation index (VI) offered the most accurate forecast of crop production with an average R 2 =0.70 compared to the date of MODIS EVI (Avg R 2 =0.68) and a NPP (Avg R 2 =0.66). When winter wheat and barley production were forecasted using NDVI, EVI and NPP and compared to official statistics, the relative error ranged from -20 to 20%, -45 to 28% and -48 to 22%, respectively. The research indicated that remotely sensed indices could characterize and forecast crop production more accurately than simple cropping area, which was treated as a null model against which to evaluate the proposed approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of the economic impact of different wind power forecast systems for producers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandrini, S.; Davò, F.; Sperati, S.; Benini, M.; Delle Monache, L.

2014-05-01

Deterministic forecasts of wind production for the next 72 h at a single wind farm or at the regional level are among the main end-users requirement. However, for an optimal management of wind power production and distribution it is important to provide, together with a deterministic prediction, a probabilistic one. A deterministic forecast consists of a single value for each time in the future for the variable to be predicted, while probabilistic forecasting informs on probabilities for potential future events. This means providing information about uncertainty (i.e. a forecast of the PDF of power) in addition to the commonly provided single-valued power prediction. A significant probabilistic application is related to the trading of energy in day-ahead electricity markets. It has been shown that, when trading future wind energy production, using probabilistic wind power predictions can lead to higher benefits than those obtained by using deterministic forecasts alone. In fact, by using probabilistic forecasting it is possible to solve economic model equations trying to optimize the revenue for the producer depending, for example, on the specific penalties for forecast errors valid in that market. In this work we have applied a probabilistic wind power forecast systems based on the "analog ensemble" method for bidding wind energy during the day-ahead market in the case of a wind farm located in Italy. The actual hourly income for the plant is computed considering the actual selling energy prices and penalties proportional to the unbalancing, defined as the difference between the day-ahead offered energy and the actual production. The economic benefit of using a probabilistic approach for the day-ahead energy bidding are evaluated, resulting in an increase of 23% of the annual income for a wind farm owner in the case of knowing "a priori" the future energy prices. The uncertainty on price forecasting partly reduces the economic benefit gained by using a probabilistic energy forecast system.

How market structure drives commodity prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bin; Wong, K. Y. Michael; Chan, Amos H. M.; So, Tsz Yan; Heimonen, Hermanni; Wei, Junyi; Saad, David

2017-11-01

We introduce an agent-based model, in which agents set their prices to maximize profit. At steady state the market self-organizes into three groups: excess producers, consumers and balanced agents, with prices determined by their own resource level and a couple of macroscopic parameters that emerge naturally from the analysis, akin to mean-field parameters in statistical mechanics. When resources are scarce prices rise sharply below a turning point that marks the disappearance of excess producers. To compare the model with real empirical data, we study the relationship between commodity prices and stock-to-use ratios in a range of commodities such as agricultural products and metals. By introducing an elasticity parameter to mitigate noise and long-term changes in commodities data, we confirm the trend of rising prices, provide evidence for turning points, and indicate yield points for less essential commodities.

NOMADS-NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System

Science.gov Websites

Forecast Maps Climate Climate Prediction Climate Archives Weather Safety Storm Ready NOAA Central Library (16km) 6 hours grib filter http OpenDAP-alt URMA hourly - http - Climate Models Climate Forecast System Flux Products 6 hours grib filter http - Climate Forecast System 3D Pressure Products 6 hours grib

Is the economic value of hydrological forecasts related to their quality? Case study of the hydropower sector.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassagnole, Manon; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Thirel, Guillaume; Gailhard, Joël; Garçon, Rémy

2017-04-01

The improvement of a forecasting system and the evaluation of the quality of its forecasts are recurrent steps in operational practice. However, the evaluation of forecast value or forecast usefulness for better decision-making is, to our knowledge, less frequent, even if it might be essential in many sectors such as hydropower and flood warning. In the hydropower sector, forecast value can be quantified by the economic gain obtained with the optimization of operations or reservoir management rules. Several hydropower operational systems use medium-range forecasts (up to 7-10 days ahead) and energy price predictions to optimize hydropower production. Hence, the operation of hydropower systems, including the management of water in reservoirs, is impacted by weather, climate and hydrologic variability as well as extreme events. In order to assess how the quality of hydrometeorological forecasts impact operations, it is essential to first understand if and how operations and management rules are sensitive to input predictions of different quality. This study investigates how 7-day ahead deterministic and ensemble streamflow forecasts of different quality might impact the economic gains of energy production. It is based on a research model developed by Irstea and EDF to investigate issues relevant to the links between quality and value of forecasts in the optimisation of energy production at the short range. Based on streamflow forecasts and pre-defined management constraints, the model defines the best hours (i.e., the hours with high energy prices) to produce electricity. To highlight the link between forecasts quality and their economic value, we built several synthetic ensemble forecasts based on observed streamflow time series. These inputs are generated in a controlled environment in order to obtain forecasts of different quality in terms of accuracy and reliability. These forecasts are used to assess the sensitivity of the decision model to forecast quality. Relationships between forecast quality and economic value are discussed. This work is part of the IMPREX project, a research project supported by the European Commission under the Horizon 2020 Framework programme, with grant No. 641811 (http://www.imprex.eu)

Forecast horizon of multi-item dynamic lot size model with perishable inventory.

PubMed

Jing, Fuying; Lan, Zirui

2017-01-01

This paper studies a multi-item dynamic lot size problem for perishable products where stock deterioration rates and inventory costs are age-dependent. We explore structural properties in an optimal solution under two cost structures and develop a dynamic programming algorithm to solve the problem in polynomial time when the number of products is fixed. We establish forecast horizon results that can help the operation manager to decide the precise forecast horizon in a rolling decision-making process. Finally, based on a detailed test bed of instance, we obtain useful managerial insights on the impact of deterioration rate and lifetime of products on the length of forecast horizon.

Forecast horizon of multi-item dynamic lot size model with perishable inventory

PubMed Central

Jing, Fuying

2017-01-01

This paper studies a multi-item dynamic lot size problem for perishable products where stock deterioration rates and inventory costs are age-dependent. We explore structural properties in an optimal solution under two cost structures and develop a dynamic programming algorithm to solve the problem in polynomial time when the number of products is fixed. We establish forecast horizon results that can help the operation manager to decide the precise forecast horizon in a rolling decision-making process. Finally, based on a detailed test bed of instance, we obtain useful managerial insights on the impact of deterioration rate and lifetime of products on the length of forecast horizon. PMID:29125856

Outbreak-associated Salmonella enterica Serotypes and Food Commodities, United States, 1998–2008

PubMed Central

Griffin, Patricia M.; Cole, Dana; Walsh, Kelly A.; Chai, Shua J.

2013-01-01

Salmonella enterica infections are transmitted not only by animal-derived foods but also by vegetables, fruits, and other plant products. To clarify links between Salmonella serotypes and specific foods, we examined the diversity and predominance of food commodities implicated in outbreaks of salmonellosis during 1998–2008. More than 80% of outbreaks caused by serotypes Enteritidis, Heidelberg, and Hadar were attributed to eggs or poultry, whereas >50% of outbreaks caused by serotypes Javiana, Litchfield, Mbandaka, Muenchen, Poona, and Senftenberg were attributed to plant commodities. Serotypes Typhimurium and Newport were associated with a wide variety of food commodities. Knowledge about these associations can help guide outbreak investigations and control measures. PMID:23876503

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Active Aeration, Open Area Vertical Stacks, More than 8 Hours, 25 Foot Stack Height

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Active Aeration, Open Area Vertical Stacks , 8 Hours or Less, 5 Foot Stack Height

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Active Aeration, Open Area Vertical Stacks, More than 8 Hours, 5 Foot Stack Height

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Active Aeration, Open Area Vertical Stacks, 8 Hours or Less, 10 Foot Stack Height

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Active Aeration, Open Area Vertical Stacks, 8 Hours or Less, 50 Foot Stack Height

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Active Aeration, Open Area Vertical Stacks, 8 Hours or Less, 25 Foot Stack Height

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

17 CFR 248.126 - Delivery of opt out notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 4 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Delivery of opt out notices. 248.126 Section 248.126 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION... Internet Web site at which the consumer obtained a product or service electronically and requires the...

17 CFR 248.124 - Reasonable opportunity to opt out.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Reasonable opportunity to opt out. 248.124 Section 248.124 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION... Internet Web site at which the consumer has obtained a product or service. The consumer acknowledges...

17 CFR 248.124 - Reasonable opportunity to opt out.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Reasonable opportunity to opt out. 248.124 Section 248.124 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION... Internet Web site at which the consumer has obtained a product or service. The consumer acknowledges...

17 CFR 248.126 - Delivery of opt out notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Delivery of opt out notices. 248.126 Section 248.126 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION... Internet Web site at which the consumer obtained a product or service electronically and requires the...

17 CFR 248.124 - Reasonable opportunity to opt out.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 4 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Reasonable opportunity to opt out. 248.124 Section 248.124 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION... Internet Web site at which the consumer has obtained a product or service. The consumer acknowledges...

17 CFR 248.126 - Delivery of opt out notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Delivery of opt out notices. 248.126 Section 248.126 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION... Internet Web site at which the consumer obtained a product or service electronically and requires the...

17 CFR 248.124 - Reasonable opportunity to opt out.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Reasonable opportunity to opt out. 248.124 Section 248.124 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION... Internet Web site at which the consumer has obtained a product or service. The consumer acknowledges...

17 CFR 248.126 - Delivery of opt out notices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Delivery of opt out notices. 248.126 Section 248.126 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION... Internet Web site at which the consumer obtained a product or service electronically and requires the...

7 CFR 305.1 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... specified temperature for a specific time period to kill targeted pests. Vapor heat. Heated air saturated with water vapor and used to raise the temperature of a commodity to a required point for a specific... products. Hot water immersion dip. Complete immersion of a commodity in heated water to raise the...

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Active Aeration, Open Area Vertical Stacks, More than 8 Hours, 50 Foot Stack Height

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

Methyl Bromide Buffer Zone Distances for Commodity and Structural Fumigation: Active Aeration, Open Area Vertical Stacks, More than 8 Hours, 10 Foot Stack Height

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document contains buffer zone tables required by certain methyl bromide commodity fumigant product labels that refer to Buffer Zone Lookup Tables located at epa.gov/pesticide-registration/mbcommoditybuffer on the label.

17 CFR 248.124 - Reasonable opportunity to opt out.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Reasonable opportunity to opt out. 248.124 Section 248.124 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION... Internet Web site at which the consumer has obtained a product or service. The consumer acknowledges...

Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) 1993 - State and National Transportation Analysis Regions : Place of Residence by Place of Work Data.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-01-01

This 2-CD set presents data and information from the 1993 Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) on the movement of goods and products shipped by manufacturing, mining, wholesale, and selected retail establishments in the United States. The data cover domestic ...

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John

This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10more » - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.« less

Forecasting the (un)productivity of the 2014 M 6.0 South Napa aftershock sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

2017-01-01

The 24 August 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa mainshock produced fewer aftershocks than expected for a California earthquake of its magnitude. In the first 4.5 days, only 59 M≥1.8 aftershocks occurred, the largest of which was an M 3.9 that happened a little over two days after the mainshock. We investigate the aftershock productivity of the South Napa sequence and compare it with other M≥5.5 California strike‐slip mainshock–aftershock sequences. While the productivity of the South Napa sequence is among the lowest, northern California mainshocks generally have fewer aftershocks than mainshocks further south, although the productivities vary widely in both regions. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, 1988) fit to Napa seismicity from 1980 to 23 August 2014 fits the sequence well and suggests that low‐productivity sequences are typical of this area. Utilizing regional variations in productivity could improve operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) by improving the model used immediately after the mainshock. We show this by comparing the daily rate of M≥2 aftershocks to forecasts made with the generic California model (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989; hereafter, RJ89), RJ89 models with productivity updated daily, a generic California ETAS model, an ETAS model based on premainshock seismicity, and ETAS models updated daily following the mainshock. RJ89 models for which only the productivity is updated provide better forecasts than the generic RJ89 California model, and the Napa‐specific ETAS models forecast the aftershock rates more accurately than either generic model. Therefore, forecasts that use localized initial parameters and that rapidly update the productivity may be better for OEF than using a generic model and/or updating all parameters.

Computer-Aided Analysis of Patents for Product Technology Maturity Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Yanhong; Gan, Dequan; Guo, Yingchun; Zhang, Peng

Product technology maturity foresting is vital for any enterprises to hold the chance for innovation and keep competitive for a long term. The Theory of Invention Problem Solving (TRIZ) is acknowledged both as a systematic methodology for innovation and a powerful tool for technology forecasting. Based on TRIZ, the state -of-the-art on the technology maturity of product and the limits of application are discussed. With the application of text mining and patent analysis technologies, this paper proposes a computer-aided approach for product technology maturity forecasting. It can overcome the shortcomings of the current methods.

ALASKA MARINE VHF VOICE

Science.gov Websites

Tsunamis 406 EPIRB's National Weather Service Marine Forecasts ALASKA MARINE VHF VOICE Marine Forecast greater danger near shore or any shallow waters? NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PRODUCTS VIA ALASKA MARINE VHF VOICE NOAA broadcasts offshore forecasts, nearshore forecasts and storm warnings on marine VHF channels

JPSS Products, Applications and Training

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres, J. R.; Connell, B. H.; Miller, S. D.

2017-12-01

The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) is a new generation polar-orbiting operational environmental satellite system that will monitor the weather and environment around the globe. JPSS will provide technological and scientific improvements in environmental monitoring via high resolution satellite imagery and derived products that stand to improve weather forecasting capabilities for National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters and complement operational Geostationary satellites. JPSS will consist of four satellites, JPSS-1 through JPSS-4, where JPSS-1 is due to launch in Fall 2017. A predecessor, prototype and operational risk-reduction for JPSS is the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite, launched on 28 October 2011. The following instruments on-board S-NPP will also be hosted on JPSS-1: Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) and the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). JPSS-1 instruments will provide satellite imagery, products and applications to users. The applications include detecting water and ice clouds, snow, sea surface temperatures, fog, fire, severe weather, vegetation health, aerosols, and sensing reflected lunar and emitted visible-wavelength light during the nighttime via the Day/Night Band (DNB) sensor included on VIIRS. Currently, there are only a few polar products that are operational for forecasters, however, more products will become available in the near future via Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System-II (AWIPS-II)-a forecasting analysis software package that forecasters can use to analyze meteorological data. To complement the polar products an wealth of training materials are currently in development. Denoted as the Satellite Foundational Course for JPSS (SatFC-J), this training will benefit NWS forecasters to utilize satellite data in their forecasts and daily operations as they discover their operational value in the NWS forecast process. As JPSS-1 launch nears, training materials will be produced in the form of modules, videos, quick guides, fact sheets, and hands-on exercises.

Optimising seasonal streamflow forecast lead time for operational decision making in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schepen, Andrew; Zhao, Tongtiegang; Wang, Q. J.; Zhou, Senlin; Feikema, Paul

2016-10-01

Statistical seasonal forecasts of 3-month streamflow totals are released in Australia by the Bureau of Meteorology and updated on a monthly basis. The forecasts are often released in the second week of the forecast period, due to the onerous forecast production process. The current service relies on models built using data for complete calendar months, meaning the forecast production process cannot begin until the first day of the forecast period. Somehow, the bureau needs to transition to a service that provides forecasts before the beginning of the forecast period; timelier forecast release will become critical as sub-seasonal (monthly) forecasts are developed. Increasing the forecast lead time to one month ahead is not considered a viable option for Australian catchments that typically lack any predictability associated with snowmelt. The bureau's forecasts are built around Bayesian joint probability models that have antecedent streamflow, rainfall and climate indices as predictors. In this study, we adapt the modelling approach so that forecasts have any number of days of lead time. Daily streamflow and sea surface temperatures are used to develop predictors based on 28-day sliding windows. Forecasts are produced for 23 forecast locations with 0-14- and 21-day lead time. The forecasts are assessed in terms of continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) skill score and reliability metrics. CRPS skill scores, on average, reduce monotonically with increase in days of lead time, although both positive and negative differences are observed. Considering only skilful forecast locations, CRPS skill scores at 7-day lead time are reduced on average by 4 percentage points, with differences largely contained within +5 to -15 percentage points. A flexible forecasting system that allows for any number of days of lead time could benefit Australian seasonal streamflow forecast users by allowing more time for forecasts to be disseminated, comprehended and made use of prior to the commencement of a forecast season. The system would allow for forecasts to be updated if necessary.

Analyzing Commodity Council Development and Implementation: The Air Force Furnishings Commodity Council

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

all production carried on by one big firm? … First, as a firm gets larger, there may be decreasing returns to the entrepreneur function, that is, the...the entrepreneur fails to place the factors of production in the uses where their value is greatest, that is, fails to make the best use of the...three one-week classroom modules. UT coordinated with AFFCC to ensure team members received the module training at a specific point during the strategy

Smooth Sailing for Weather Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Through a cooperative venture with NASA's Stennis Space Center, WorldWinds, Inc., developed a unique weather and wave vector map using space-based radar satellite information and traditional weather observations. Called WorldWinds, the product provides accurate, near real-time, high-resolution weather forecasts. It was developed for commercial and scientific users. In addition to weather forecasting, the product's applications include maritime and terrestrial transportation, aviation operations, precision farming, offshore oil and gas operations, and coastal hazard response support. Target commercial markets include the operational maritime and aviation communities, oil and gas providers, and recreational yachting interests. Science applications include global long-term prediction and climate change, land-cover and land-use change, and natural hazard issues. Commercial airlines have expressed interest in the product, as it can provide forecasts over remote areas. WorldWinds, Inc., is currently providing its product to commercial weather outlets.

Snowfall Rate Retrieval Using Passive Microwave Measurements and Its Applications in Weather Forecast and Hydrology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meng, Huan; Ferraro, Ralph; Kongoli, Cezar; Yan, Banghua; Zavodsky, Bradley; Zhao, Limin; Dong, Jun; Wang, Nai-Yu

2015-01-01

(AMSU), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) and Advance Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). ATMS is the follow-on sensor to AMSU and MHS. Currently, an AMSU and MHS based land snowfall rate (SFR) product is running operationally at NOAA/NESDIS. Based on the AMSU/MHS SFR, an ATMS SFR algorithm has also been developed. The algorithm performs retrieval in three steps: snowfall detection, retrieval of cloud properties, and estimation of snow particle terminal velocity and snowfall rate. The snowfall detection component utilizes principal component analysis and a logistic regression model. It employs a combination of temperature and water vapor sounding channels to detect the scattering signal from falling snow and derives the probability of snowfall. Cloud properties are retrieved using an inversion method with an iteration algorithm and a two-stream radiative transfer model. A method adopted to calculate snow particle terminal velocity. Finally, snowfall rate is computed by numerically solving a complex integral. The SFR products are being used mainly in two communities: hydrology and weather forecast. Global blended precipitation products traditionally do not include snowfall derived from satellites because such products were not available operationally in the past. The ATMS and AMSU/MHS SFR now provide the winter precipitation information for these blended precipitation products. Weather forecasters mainly rely on radar and station observations for snowfall forecast. The SFR products can fill in gaps where no conventional snowfall data are available to forecasters. The products can also be used to confirm radar and gauge snowfall data and increase forecasters' confidence in their prediction.

Historical trends in U.S. mineral statistics for selected non-ferrous metals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piper, David Z.; Nokleberg, Warren J.

2002-01-01

Production figures for selected nonferrous metals-aluminum (including bauxite and alumina), copper, lead, tin, titanium, and zinc-by the United States, as well as other statistics for these commodities, show strong volatility during 20th century. Major shifts were driven by the Great Depression and the two World Wars, but other major temporal changes are also noted that are not directly related to such global crises. For example, the price of tin exhibited a strong maximum in the 1980's, which is unrelated to world production, but rather to failed efforts of the International Tin Council to control price. In the case of copper, U.S. exports have varied throughout the second half of the century, by more than a factor of 5. Such volatility might be explained in part by global economic conditions, at least throughout recent decades. Supporting the interpretation of the importance of foreign pressure on the domestic commodities market is a close correlation between domestic consumption of antimony and its elevated price in the mid 1980's,possibly pushed up mostly by the world dominance in production of this commodity by China. However, only very superficial explanations can be advanced for such relations before we have examined, in concert, information for a much larger suite of commodities.

Estimates of Embodied Global Energy and Air-Emission Intensities of Japanese Products for Building a Japanese Input–Output Life Cycle Assessment Database with a Global System Boundary

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

To build a life cycle assessment (LCA) database of Japanese products embracing their global supply chains in a manner requiring lower time and labor burdens, this study estimates the intensity of embodied global environmental burden for commodities produced in Japan. The intensity of embodied global environmental burden is a measure of the environmental burden generated globally by unit production of the commodity and can be used as life cycle inventory data in LCA. The calculation employs an input–output LCA method with a global link input–output model that defines a global system boundary grounded in a simplified multiregional input–output framework. As results, the intensities of embodied global environmental burden for 406 Japanese commodities are determined in terms of energy consumption, greenhouse-gas emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, perfluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, and their summation), and air-pollutant emissions (nitrogen oxide and sulfur oxide). The uncertainties in the intensities of embodied global environmental burden attributable to the simplified structure of the global link input–output model are quantified using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, by analyzing the structure of the embodied global greenhouse-gas intensities we characterize Japanese commodities in the context of LCA embracing global supply chains. PMID:22881452

Applying commodity chain analysis to changing modes of alcohol supply in a developing country.

PubMed

Jernigan, D H

2000-12-01

Development sociology has used global commodity chains as one way of analyzing the dynamics of power and profit-taking in globalized production networks made up of multiple firms and occurring in multiple national settings. A substantial portion of the alcohol supply in developing countries is now produced through such production networks. Particularly in the beer and spirits trade, a small number of transnational firms control networks of local producers, importers, advertisers and distributors. These networks serve to embed transnational or transnationally backed brands in the local culture, using the tools of market research, product design and marketing to influence local drinking practices. Case materials from Malaysia's beer industry help to illustrate how the transnational firms dominate in those links of the commodity chain in which monopoly or oligopoly control is most likely to be found: the design/recipe and marketing/advertising nodes. Their control of the commodity chains and extraction of monopoly or oligopoly profits from them places substantial resources and influence over drinking settings and practices in foreign hands. The impact of this influence on state efficacy and autonomy in setting alcohol policy is an important subject for future research on the creation and implementation of effective alcohol policies in developing societies.

Improved Satellite Techniques for Monitoring and Forecasting the Transition of Hurricanes to Extratropical Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Folmer, Michael; Halverson, Jeffrey; Berndt, Emily; Dunion, Jason; Goodman, Steve; Goldberg, Mitch

2014-01-01

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites R-Series (GOES-R) and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Satellite Proving Grounds have introduced multiple proxy and operational products into operations over the last few years. Some of these products have proven to be useful in current operations at various National Weather Service (NWS) offices and national centers as a first look at future satellite capabilities. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) field campaign have had access to a few of these products to assist in monitoring extratropical transitions of hurricanes. The red, green, blue (RGB) Air Mass product provides forecasters with an enhanced view of various air masses in one complete image to help differentiate between possible stratospheric/tropospheric interactions, moist tropical air masses, and cool, continental/maritime air masses. As a compliment to this product, a new Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) Ozone product was introduced in the past year to assist in diagnosing the dry air intrusions seen in the RGB Air Mass product. Finally, a lightning density product was introduced to forecasters as a precursor to the new Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) that will be housed on GOES-R, to monitor the most active regions of convection, which might indicate a disruption in the tropical environment and even signal the onset of extratropical transition. This presentation will focus on a few case studies that exhibit extratropical transition and point out the usefulness of these new satellite techniques in aiding forecasters forecast these challenging events.

[Study on commercial specification of atractylodes based on Delphi method].

PubMed

Wang, Hao; Chen, Li-Xiao; Huang, Lu-Qi; Zhang, Tian-Tian; Li, Ying; Zheng, Yu-Guang

2016-03-01

This research adopts "Delphi method" to evaluate atractylodes traditional traits and rank correlation. By using methods of mathematical statistics the relationship of the traditional identification indicators and atractylodes goods rank correlation was analyzed, It is found that the main characteristics affectingatractylodes commodity specifications and grades of main characters wereoil points of transaction,color of transaction,color of surface,grain of transaction,texture of transaction andspoilage. The study points out that the original "seventy-six kinds of medicinal materials commodity specification standards of atractylodes differentiate commodity specification" is not in conformity with the actual market situation, we need to formulate corresponding atractylodes medicinal products specifications and grades.This study combined with experimental results "Delphi method" and the market actual situation, proposed the new draft atractylodes commodity specifications and grades, as the new atractylodes commodity specifications and grades standards. It provides a reference and theoretical basis. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Modeling commodity salam contract between two parties for discrete and continuous time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hisham, Azie Farhani Badrol; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

2017-08-01

In order for Islamic finance to remain competitive as the conventional, there needs a new development of Islamic compliance product such as Islamic derivative that can be used to manage the risk. However, under syariah principles and regulations, all financial instruments must not be conflicting with five syariah elements which are riba (interest paid), rishwah (corruption), gharar (uncertainty or unnecessary risk), maysir (speculation or gambling) and jahl (taking advantage of the counterparty's ignorance). This study has proposed a traditional Islamic contract namely salam that can be built as an Islamic derivative product. Although a lot of studies has been done on discussing and proposing the implementation of salam contract as the Islamic product however they are more into qualitative and law issues. Since there is lack of quantitative study of salam contract being developed, this study introduces mathematical models that can value the appropriate salam price for a commodity salam contract between two parties. In modeling the commodity salam contract, this study has modified the existing conventional derivative model and come out with some adjustments to comply with syariah rules and regulations. The cost of carry model has been chosen as the foundation to develop the commodity salam model between two parties for discrete and continuous time series. However, the conventional time value of money results from the concept of interest that is prohibited in Islam. Therefore, this study has adopted the idea of Islamic time value of money which is known as the positive time preference, in modeling the commodity salam contract between two parties for discrete and continuous time series.

Time series ARIMA models for daily price of palm oil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd; Zamhawari, Nor Hashimah; Bakar, Mohd Aftar Abu

2015-02-01

Palm oil is deemed as one of the most important commodity that forms the economic backbone of Malaysia. Modeling and forecasting the daily price of palm oil is of great interest for Malaysia's economic growth. In this study, time series ARIMA models are used to fit the daily price of palm oil. The Akaike Infromation Criterion (AIC), Akaike Infromation Criterion with a correction for finite sample sizes (AICc) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used to compare between different ARIMA models being considered. It is found that ARIMA(1,2,1) model is suitable for daily price of crude palm oil in Malaysia for the year 2010 to 2012.

Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Forecasts

Science.gov Websites

Archive NOAA Weather Radio Research Non-op. Products Forecast Tools Svr. Tstm. Events SPC Publications SPC Composite Maps Fire Weather Graphical Composite Maps Forecast and observational maps for various fire

Near real time wind energy forecasting incorporating wind tunnel modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubitz, William David

A series of experiments and investigations were carried out to inform the development of a day-ahead wind power forecasting system. An experimental near-real time wind power forecasting system was designed and constructed that operates on a desktop PC and forecasts 12--48 hours in advance. The system uses model output of the Eta regional scale forecast (RSF) to forecast the power production of a wind farm in the Altamont Pass, California, USA from 12 to 48 hours in advance. It is of modular construction and designed to also allow diagnostic forecasting using archived RSF data, thereby allowing different methods of completing each forecasting step to be tested and compared using the same input data. Wind-tunnel investigations of the effect of wind direction and hill geometry on wind speed-up above a hill were conducted. Field data from an Altamont Pass, California site was used to evaluate several speed-up prediction algorithms, both with and without wind direction adjustment. These algorithms were found to be of limited usefulness for the complex terrain case evaluated. Wind-tunnel and numerical simulation-based methods were developed for determining a wind farm power curve (the relation between meteorological conditions at a point in the wind farm and the power production of the wind farm). Both methods, as well as two methods based on fits to historical data, ultimately showed similar levels of accuracy: mean absolute errors predicting power production of 5 to 7 percent of the wind farm power capacity. The downscaling of RSF forecast data to the wind farm was found to be complicated by the presence of complex terrain. Poor results using the geostrophic drag law and regression methods motivated the development of a database search method that is capable of forecasting not only wind speeds but also power production with accuracy better than persistence.

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center: A Collaborative Model for Accelerating Research into Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, S. J.; Lapenta, W.; Jedlovec, G.; Dodge, J.; Bradshaw, T.

2003-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama was created to accelerate the infusion of NASA earth science observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. The principal focus of experimental products is on the regional scale with an emphasis on forecast improvements on a time scale of 0-24 hours. The SPoRT Center research is aligned with the regional prediction objectives of the US Weather Research Program dealing with 0-1 day forecast issues ranging from convective initiation to 24-hr quantitative precipitation forecasting. The SPoRT Center, together with its other interagency partners, universities, and the NASA/NOAA Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, provides a means and a process to effectively transition NASA Earth Science Enterprise observations and technology to National Weather Service operations and decision makers at both the global/national and regional scales. This paper describes the process for the transition of experimental products into forecast operations, current products undergoing assessment by forecasters, and plans for the future.

29 CFR 780.116 - Commodities included by reference to the Agricultural Marketing Act.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... commodity’ includes, in addition to other agricultural commodities, crude gum (oleoresin) from a living tree... spirits of turpentine made from gum (oleoresin) from a living tree” and “ ‘gum rosin’ means rosin...) of the Agricultural Marketing Act is that derived from a living tree, the production of oleoresin...

7 CFR 12.32 - Converted wetland identification criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... hydric soils have been used for production of an agricultural commodity and the effect of the drainage or... containing the same hydric soils in a natural condition to determine if the hydric soils can or cannot be used to produce an agricultural commodity under natural conditions. If the soil on the comparison site...

7 CFR 12.32 - Converted wetland identification criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... hydric soils have been used for production of an agricultural commodity and the effect of the drainage or... containing the same hydric soils in a natural condition to determine if the hydric soils can or cannot be used to produce an agricultural commodity under natural conditions. If the soil on the comparison site...

7 CFR 12.32 - Converted wetland identification criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... hydric soils have been used for production of an agricultural commodity and the effect of the drainage or... containing the same hydric soils in a natural condition to determine if the hydric soils can or cannot be used to produce an agricultural commodity under natural conditions. If the soil on the comparison site...

7 CFR 12.32 - Converted wetland identification criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... hydric soils have been used for production of an agricultural commodity and the effect of the drainage or... containing the same hydric soils in a natural condition to determine if the hydric soils can or cannot be used to produce an agricultural commodity under natural conditions. If the soil on the comparison site...

7 CFR 12.32 - Converted wetland identification criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... hydric soils have been used for production of an agricultural commodity and the effect of the drainage or... containing the same hydric soils in a natural condition to determine if the hydric soils can or cannot be used to produce an agricultural commodity under natural conditions. If the soil on the comparison site...

40 CFR 180.493 - Dimethomorph; tolerances for residues.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... grapes grown for raisin production. (b) Section 18 emergency exemptions. [Reserved] (c) Tolerances with... stem, subgroup 5A 2.0 Brassica, leafy greens, subgroup 5B 20.0 Ginseng 0.90 Grape, raisin 1 6.0 Hop... or on the following commodities: Commodity Parts per million Bean, lima, succulent 0.60 Grape 3.5 (d...

The Integration of the Information and Communication Functions, and the Marketing of the Resulting Products.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, Susan C.

1985-01-01

Discusses the theoretical basis for integration of information functions and communication functions, the relevance of this integration in the scientific information cycle, and its positive effect on commodity research networks. The application of this theory is described using three commodity programs of the Centro Internacional de Agricultura…

17 CFR 41.42 - Customer margin requirements for security futures-authority, purpose, interpretation, and scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... as being willing to buy and sell security futures for its own account on a regular or continuous... for security futures-authority, purpose, interpretation, and scope. 41.42 Section 41.42 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION SECURITY FUTURES PRODUCTS Customer Accounts and...

17 CFR 41.12 - Indexes underlying futures contracts trading for fewer than 30 days.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... contracts trading for fewer than 30 days. 41.12 Section 41.12 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION (CONTINUED) SECURITY FUTURES PRODUCTS Narrow-Based Security Indexes § 41.12 Indexes underlying futures contracts trading for fewer than 30 days. (a) An index on which a contract of...

Mineral commodity summaries 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2013-01-01

Each chapter of the 2013 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2012 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses. For mineral commodities for which there is a Government stockpile, detailed information concerning the stockpile status is included in the two-page synopsis. Abbreviations and units of measure, and definitions of selected terms used in the report, are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. “Appendix C—Reserves and Resources” includes “Part A—Resource/Reserve Classification for Minerals” and “Part B—Sources of Reserves Data.” A directory of USGS minerals information country specialists and their responsibilities is Appendix D. The USGS continually strives to improve the value of its publications to users. Constructive comments and suggestions by readers of the MCS 2013 are welcomed.

Mineral commodity summaries 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2014-01-01

Each chapter of the 2014 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2013 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses. For mineral commodities for which there is a Government stockpile, detailed information concerning the stockpile status is included in the two-page synopsis. Abbreviations and units of measure, and definitions of selected terms used in the report, are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. “Appendix C—Reserves and Resources” includes “Part A—Resource/Reserve Classification for Minerals” and “Part B—Sources of Reserves Data.” A directory of USGS minerals information country specialists and their responsibilities is Appendix D. The USGS continually strives to improve the value of its publications to users. Constructive comments and suggestions by readers of the MCS 2014 are welcomed.

Medium range forecasting of Hurricane Harvey flash flooding using ECMWF and social vulnerability data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillosu, F. M.; Jurlina, T.; Baugh, C.; Tsonevsky, I.; Hewson, T.; Prates, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Prudhomme, C.

2017-12-01

During hurricane Harvey the greater east Texas area was affected by extensive flash flooding. Their localised nature meant they were too small for conventional large scale flood forecasting systems to capture. We are testing the use of two real time forecast products from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in combination with local vulnerability information to provide flash flood forecasting tools at the medium range (up to 7 days ahead). Meteorological forecasts are the total precipitation extreme forecast index (EFI), a measure of how the ensemble forecast probability distribution differs from the model-climate distribution for the chosen location, time of year and forecast lead time; and the shift of tails (SOT) which complements the EFI by quantifying how extreme an event could potentially be. Both products give the likelihood of flash flood generating precipitation. For hurricane Harvey, 3-day EFI and SOT products for the period 26th - 29th August 2017 were used, generated from the twice daily, 18 km, 51 ensemble member ECMWF Integrated Forecast System. After regridding to 1 km resolution the forecasts were combined with vulnerable area data to produce a flash flood hazard risk area. The vulnerability data were floodplains (EU Joint Research Centre), road networks (Texas Department of Transport) and urban areas (Census Bureau geographic database), together reflecting the susceptibility to flash floods from the landscape. The flash flood hazard risk area forecasts were verified using a traditional approach against observed National Weather Service flash flood reports, a total of 153 reported flash floods have been detected in that period. Forecasts performed best for SOT = 5 (hit ratio = 65%, false alarm ratio = 44%) and EFI = 0.7 (hit ratio = 74%, false alarm ratio = 45%) at 72 h lead time. By including the vulnerable areas data, our verification results improved by 5-15%, demonstrating the value of vulnerability information within natural hazard forecasts. This research shows that flash flooding from hurricane Harvey was predictable up to 4 days ahead and that filtering the forecasts to vulnerable areas provides a more focused guidance to civil protection agencies planning their emergency response.

Wheat productivity estimates using LANDSAT data. [Michigan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nalepka, R. F.; Colwell, J. (Principal Investigator); Rice, D. P.

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. An initial demonstration was made of the capability to make direct production forecasts for winter wheat using early season LANDSAT data. The approach offers the potential to make production forecasts quickly and simply, possibly avoiding some of the complexities of alternate procedures.

Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced single-valued streamflow forecasts - A Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regonda, Satish Kumar; Seo, Dong-Jun; Lawrence, Bill; Brown, James D.; Demargne, Julie

2013-08-01

We present a statistical procedure for generating short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts from single-valued, or deterministic, streamflow forecasts produced operationally by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs). The resulting ensemble streamflow forecast provides an estimate of the predictive uncertainty associated with the single-valued forecast to support risk-based decision making by the forecasters and by the users of the forecast products, such as emergency managers. Forced by single-valued quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts (QPF, QTF), the single-valued streamflow forecasts are produced at a 6-h time step nominally out to 5 days into the future. The single-valued streamflow forecasts reflect various run-time modifications, or "manual data assimilation", applied by the human forecasters in an attempt to reduce error from various sources in the end-to-end forecast process. The proposed procedure generates ensemble traces of streamflow from a parsimonious approximation of the conditional multivariate probability distribution of future streamflow given the single-valued streamflow forecast, QPF, and the most recent streamflow observation. For parameter estimation and evaluation, we used a multiyear archive of the single-valued river stage forecast produced operationally by the NWS Arkansas-Red River Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC) in Tulsa, Oklahoma. As a by-product of parameter estimation, the procedure provides a categorical assessment of the effective lead time of the operational hydrologic forecasts for different QPF and forecast flow conditions. To evaluate the procedure, we carried out hindcasting experiments in dependent and cross-validation modes. The results indicate that the short-term streamflow ensemble hindcasts generated from the procedure are generally reliable within the effective lead time of the single-valued forecasts and well capture the skill of the single-valued forecasts. For smaller basins, however, the effective lead time is significantly reduced by short basin memory and reduced skill in the single-valued QPF.

Early Transition and Use of VIIRS and GOES-R Products by NWS Forecast Offices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuell, Kevin K.; Smith, Mathew; Jedlovec, Gary

2012-01-01

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite, part of the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), and the ABI and GLM sensors scheduled for the GOES-R geostationary satellite will bring advanced observing capabilities to the operational weather community. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) project at Marshall Space Flight Center has been facilitating the use of real-time experimental and research satellite data by NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) for a number of years to demonstrate the planned capabilities of future sensors to address particular forecast challenges through improve situational awareness and short-term weather forecasts. For the NOAA GOES-R Proving Ground (PG) activity, SPoRT is developing and disseminating selected GOES-R proxy products to collaborating WFOs and National Centers. SPoRT developed the a pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper product and helped in the transition of the Algorithm Working Group (AWG) Convective Initiation (CI) proxy product for the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Experiment,. Along with its partner WFOs, SPoRT is evaluating MODIS/GOES Hybrid products, which brings ABI-like data sets from existing NASA instrumentation in front of the forecaster for everyday use. The Hybrid uses near real-time MODIS imagery to demonstrate future ABI capabilities, while utilizing standard GOES imagery to provide the temporal frequency of geostationary imagery expected by operational forecasters. In addition, SPoRT is collaborating with the GOES-R hydrology AWG to transition a baseline proxy product for rainfall rate / quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) to the OCONUS regions. For VIIRS, SPoRT is demonstrating multispectral observing capabilities and the utility of low-light channels not previously available on operational weather satellites to address a variety of weather forecast challenges. This presentation will discuss the results of transitioning these products to collaborating WFOs throughout the country.

Flare forecasting at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, S. A.; Bingham, S.; Sharpe, M.; Jackson, D. R.

2017-04-01

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre produces 24/7/365 space weather guidance, alerts, and forecasts to a wide range of government and commercial end-users across the United Kingdom. Solar flare forecasts are one of its products, which are issued multiple times a day in two forms: forecasts for each active region on the solar disk over the next 24 h and full-disk forecasts for the next 4 days. Here the forecasting process is described in detail, as well as first verification of archived forecasts using methods commonly used in operational weather prediction. Real-time verification available for operational flare forecasting use is also described. The influence of human forecasters is highlighted, with human-edited forecasts outperforming original model results and forecasting skill decreasing over longer forecast lead times.

NCEP ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS

Science.gov Websites

://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GEFS/ The links to the various Forecast Plots are listed under Experimental Data on the new GEFS page. This NCEP Ensemble Home Page is a collection of experimental analysis and forecast products

ECPC’s weekly to seasonal global forecasts

Treesearch

John O. Roads; Shyh-Chin Chen; Francis M. Fujioka

2001-01-01

The Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) has been making experimental, near-real-time seasonal global forecasts since 26 September 1997 with the NCEP global spectral model used for the reanalysis. Images of these forecasts, at daily to seasonal timescales, are provided on the World Wide Web and digital forecast products are provided on the ECPC...

Transition, Training, and Assessment of Multispectral Composite Imagery in Support of the NWS Aviation Forecast Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuell, Kevin; Jedlovec, Gary; Leroy, Anita; Schultz, Lori

2015-01-01

The NASA/Short-term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program works closely with NOAA/NWS weather forecasters to transition unique satellite data and capabilities into operations in order to assist with nowcasting and short-term forecasting issues. Several multispectral composite imagery (i.e. RGB) products were introduced to users in the early 2000s to support hydrometeorology and aviation challenges as well as incident support. These activities lead to SPoRT collaboration with the GOES-R Proving Ground efforts where instruments such as MODIS (Aqua, Terra) and S-NPP/VIIRS imagers began to be used as near-realtime proxies to future capabilities of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). One of the composite imagery products introduced to users was the Night-time Microphysics RGB, originally developed by EUMETSAT. SPoRT worked to transition this imagery to NWS users, provide region-specific training, and assess the impact of the imagery to aviation forecast needs. This presentation discusses the method used to interact with users to address specific aviation forecast challenges, including training activities undertaken to prepare for a product assessment. Users who assessed the multispectral imagery ranged from southern U.S. inland and coastal NWS weather forecast offices (WFOs), to those in the Rocky Mountain Front Range region and West Coast, as well as highlatitude forecasters of Alaska. These user-based assessments were documented and shared with the satellite community to support product developers and the broad users of new generation satellite data.

Development, Implementation, and Skill Assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast System

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

USA) 2011 Abstract The NOAA Great Lakes Operational Forecast System ( GLOFS ) uses near-real-time atmospheric observa- tions and numerical weather...Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) in Silver Spring, MD. GLOFS has been making operational nowcasts and forecasts at CO-OPS... GLOFS ) uses near-real-time atmospheric observations and numerical weather prediction forecast guidance to produce three-dimensional forecasts of water

Determine the optimal carrier selection for a logistics network based on multi-commodity reliability criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yi-Kuei; Yeh, Cheng-Ta

2013-05-01

From the perspective of supply chain management, the selected carrier plays an important role in freight delivery. This article proposes a new criterion of multi-commodity reliability and optimises the carrier selection based on such a criterion for logistics networks with routes and nodes, over which multiple commodities are delivered. Carrier selection concerns the selection of exactly one carrier to deliver freight on each route. The capacity of each carrier has several available values associated with a probability distribution, since some of a carrier's capacity may be reserved for various orders. Therefore, the logistics network, given any carrier selection, is a multi-commodity multi-state logistics network. Multi-commodity reliability is defined as a probability that the logistics network can satisfy a customer's demand for various commodities, and is a performance indicator for freight delivery. To solve this problem, this study proposes an optimisation algorithm that integrates genetic algorithm, minimal paths and Recursive Sum of Disjoint Products. A practical example in which multi-sized LCD monitors are delivered from China to Germany is considered to illustrate the solution procedure.

Virtual Water Transfers in U.S. Cities from Domestic Commodity Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahams, I. C.; Mejia, A.; Paterson, W.

2015-12-01

Cities have imported water into their boundaries for centuries but understanding how cities indirectly affect watersheds through the commodities which they import is fairly unknown. Thus, we present and discuss here a methodology for determining the virtual water transfers to and from U.S. cities associated with domestic commodity flows. For our methodology, we only consider agricultural and industrial commodities and, to represent the commodity flows, we use the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) dataset from the U.S. Department of Transportation. Accordingly, we determine virtual water transfers for the 123 geographic regions in the FAF, which consists of 17 states, 73 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and 33 remainders of states. Out of the 41 sectors that comprise the FAF data, we consider only the 29 sectors that account for the agricultural and industrial commodities. Using both water use data for macro-sectors and national water use coefficients for different industries, we determine a weighted water use coefficient for each of the 29 sectors considered. Ultimately, we use these weighted coefficients to estimate virtual water transfers and the water footprint for each city. Preliminary comparisons with other water footprint estimates indicate that our methodology yields reasonable results. In terms of the water footprint, we find that cities (i.e. MSAs) are net consumers, can consume a large proportion of their own production, and can have a large agricultural production. We also find that the per capita water footprint of industrial consumption decreases with increasing population in cities, suggesting that large cities may be more efficient.

Projecting county pulpwood production with historical production and macro-economic variables

Treesearch

Consuelo Brandeis; Dayton M. Lambert

2014-01-01

We explored forecasting of county roundwood pulpwood produc-tion with county-vector autoregressive (CVAR) and spatial panelvector autoregressive (SPVAR) methods. The analysis used timberproducts output data for the state of Florida, together with a set ofmacro-economic variables. Overall, we found the SPVAR specifica-tion produced forecasts with lower error rates...

Production data from five major geothermal fields in Nevada analysed using a physiostatistical algorithm developed for oil and gas: temperature decline forecasts and type curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzma, H. A.; Golubkova, A.; Eklund, C.

2015-12-01

Nevada has the second largest output of geothermal energy in the United States (after California) with 14 major power plants producing over 425 megawatts of electricity meeting 7% of the state's total energy needs. A number of wells, particularly older ones, have shown significant temperature and pressure declines over their lifetimes, adversely affecting economic returns. Production declines are almost universal in the oil and gas (O&G) industry. BetaZi (BZ) is a proprietary algorithm which uses a physiostatistical model to forecast production from the past history of O&G wells and to generate "type curves" which are used to estimate the production of undrilled wells. Although BZ was designed and calibrated for O&G, it is a general purpose diffusion equation solver, capable of modeling complex fluid dynamics in multi-phase systems. In this pilot study, it is applied directly to the temperature data from five Nevada geothermal fields. With the data appropriately normalized, BZ is shown to accurately predict temperature declines. The figure shows several examples of BZ forecasts using historic data from Steamboat Hills field near Reno. BZ forecasts were made using temperature on a normalized scale (blue) with two years of data held out for blind testing (yellow). The forecast is returned in terms of percentiles of probability (red) with the median forecast marked (solid green). Actual production is expected to fall within the majority of the red bounds 80% of the time. Blind tests such as these are used to verify that the probabilistic forecast can be trusted. BZ is also used to compute and accurate type temperature profile for wells that have yet to be drilled. These forecasts can be combined with estimated costs to evaluate the economics and risks of a project or potential capital investment. It is remarkable that an algorithm developed for oil and gas can accurately predict temperature in geothermal wells without significant recasting.

Present and future hydropower scheduling in Statkraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruland, O.

2012-12-01

Statkraft produces close to 40 TWH in an average year and is one of the largest hydropower producers in Europe. For hydropower producers the scheduling of electricity generation is the key to success and this depend on optimal use of the water resources. The hydrologist and his forecasts both on short and on long terms are crucial to this success. The hydrological forecasts in Statkraft and most hydropower companies in Scandinavia are based on lumped models and the HBV concept. But before the hydrological model there is a complex system for collecting, controlling and correcting data applied in the models and the production scheduling and, equally important, routines for surveillance of the processes and manual intervention. Prior to the forecasting the states in the hydrological models are updated based on observations. When snow is present in the catchments snow surveys are an important source for model updating. The meteorological forecast is another premise provider to the hydrological forecast and to get as precise meteorological forecast as possible Statkraft hires resources from the governmental forecasting center. Their task is to interpret the meteorological situation, describe the uncertainties and if necessary use their knowledge and experience to manually correct the forecast in the hydropower production regions. This is one of several forecast applied further in the scheduling process. Both to be able to compare and evaluate different forecast providers and to ensure that we get the best available forecast, forecasts from different sources are applied. Some of these forecasts have undergone statistical corrections to reduce biases. The uncertainties related to the meteorological forecast have for a long time been approached and described by ensemble forecasts. But also the observations used for updating the model have a related uncertainty. Both to the observations itself and to how well they represent the catchment. Though well known, these uncertainties have thus far been handled superficially. Statkraft has initiated a program called ENKI to approach these issues. A part of this program is to apply distributed models for hydrological forecasting. Developing methodologies to handle uncertainties in the observations, the meteorological forecasts, the model itself and how to update the model with this information are other parts of the program. Together with energy price expectations and information about the state of the energy production system the hydrological forecast is input to the next step in the production scheduling both on short and long term. The long term schedule for reservoir filling is premise provider to the short term optimizing of water. The long term schedule is based on the actual reservoir levels, snow storages and a long history of meteorological observations and gives an overall schedule at a regional level. Within the regions a more detailed tool is used for short term optimizing of the hydropower production Each reservoir is scheduled taking into account restrictions in the water courses and cost of start and stop of aggregates. The value of the water is calculated for each reservoir and reflects the risk of water spillage. This compared to the energy price determines whether an aggregate will run or not. In a gradually more complex energy system with relatively lower regulated capacity this is an increasingly more challenging task.

Applications of Experimental Suomi-NPP VIIRS Flood Inundation Maps in Operational Flood Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deweese, M. M.

2017-12-01

Flooding is the most costly natural disaster across the globe. In 2016 flooding caused more fatalities than any other natural disaster in the United States. The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) is mandated to forecast rivers for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Since 2014, the NWS North Central River Forecast Center has utilized experimental near real time flood mapping products from the JPSS Suomi-NPP VIIRS satellite. These products have been demonstrated to provide reliable and high value information for forecasters in ice jam and snowmelt flooding in data sparse regions of the northern plains. In addition, they have proved valuable in rainfall induced flooding within the upper Mississippi River basin. Aerial photography and ground observations have validated the accuracy of the products. Examples are provided from numerous flooding events to demonstrate the operational application of this satellite derived information as a remotely sensed observational data source and it's utility in real time flood forecasting.

75 FR 81977 - Order Exempting the Trading and Clearing of Certain Products Related to the CBOE Gold ETF...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-29

... derivatives transaction execution facility for transactions for future delivery in any commodity under section... categorical Section 4(c) exemption to permit options and futures on shares of all or some precious metal commodity-based ETFs to be traded and cleared as options on securities and security futures, respectively...

40 CFR 180.6 - Pesticide tolerances regarding milk, eggs, meat, and/or poultry; statement of policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... residues in or on raw agricultural commodities, consideration is always given to possible residues of those pesticide chemicals or their conversion products entering the diet of man through the ingestion of milk... finite residues will actually be incurred in these foods from feed use of the raw agricultural commodity...

40 CFR 180.6 - Pesticide tolerances regarding milk, eggs, meat, and/or poultry; statement of policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... residues in or on raw agricultural commodities, consideration is always given to possible residues of those pesticide chemicals or their conversion products entering the diet of man through the ingestion of milk... finite residues will actually be incurred in these foods from feed use of the raw agricultural commodity...

17 CFR 41.12 - Indexes underlying futures contracts trading for fewer than 30 days.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... contracts trading for fewer than 30 days. 41.12 Section 41.12 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION SECURITY FUTURES PRODUCTS Narrow-Based Security Indexes § 41.12 Indexes underlying futures contracts trading for fewer than 30 days. (a) An index on which a contract of sale for...

75 FR 60411 - Request for Comment on Options for a Proposed Exemptive Order Relating to the Trading and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-30

... in the precious metals markets. \\28\\ See http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1459862... efficient exposure to commodity market price movements.\\4\\ These Precious Metal Commodity-Based ETFs have... conditions to the exemption orders) and that novel products may be introduced without undue delay for market...

A brief review of some pathology research supported by the Georgia Commodity Commission for Pecans at the USDA-ARS, Byron

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

With the changes currently taking place nationally in the pecan industry, and the production issues faced specifically by growers in Georgia and elsewhere in the southeastern region, the pathology research projects funded by the Georgia Commodity Commission for Pecans (CC) are reviewed. The results ...

17 CFR 41.12 - Indexes underlying futures contracts trading for fewer than 30 days.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... contracts trading for fewer than 30 days. 41.12 Section 41.12 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION SECURITY FUTURES PRODUCTS Narrow-Based Security Indexes § 41.12 Indexes underlying futures contracts trading for fewer than 30 days. (a) An index on which a contract of sale for...

17 CFR 41.12 - Indexes underlying futures contracts trading for fewer than 30 days.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... contracts trading for fewer than 30 days. 41.12 Section 41.12 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION SECURITY FUTURES PRODUCTS Narrow-Based Security Indexes § 41.12 Indexes underlying futures contracts trading for fewer than 30 days. (a) An index on which a contract of sale for...

An Internet portal dedicated to pig production and wild suids in the tropics: PigTrop web site http://pigtrop.cirad.fr.

PubMed

Porphyre, Vincent; Gourment, Cyricce; Erwin, Thierry; Nouaille, Christine

2006-10-01

Considering that a wide access to updated and relevant data is a key point for livestock development and research improvement in tropics, The PigTrop web site (http://pigtrop.cirad.fr) is dedicated to pig production and pork commodity chains in developing countries. It mainly addresses stakeholders involved in the pig commodity chain, but also researchers, students, or development agencies with an interest in tropical pig breeding. It is run by the French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD).

Implementation of Automatic Clustering Algorithm and Fuzzy Time Series in Motorcycle Sales Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasim; Junaeti, E.; Wirantika, R.

2018-01-01

Accurate forecasting for the sale of a product depends on the forecasting method used. The purpose of this research is to build motorcycle sales forecasting application using Fuzzy Time Series method combined with interval determination using automatic clustering algorithm. Forecasting is done using the sales data of motorcycle sales in the last ten years. Then the error rate of forecasting is measured using Means Percentage Error (MPE) and Means Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of forecasting in the one-year period obtained in this study are included in good accuracy.

About NCEP

Science.gov Websites

through programs of applied research in data analysis, modeling and product development in partnership with the broader research community. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) provides official NWS ) provides analysis and forecast products, specializing in quantitative precipitation forecasts to five days

Storm Prediction Center Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on May 27,

Science.gov Websites

National RADAR Product Archive NOAA Weather Radio Research Non-op. Products Forecast Tools Svr. Tstm information in MS-Word or PDF. Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

/ VISION | About EMC EMC > NAM > Home NAM Operational Products HIRESW Operational Products Operational Forecast Graphics Experimental Forecast Graphics Verification and Diagnostics Model Configuration Collaborators Documentation and Code FAQ Operational Change Log Parallel Experiment Change Log Contacts

Forecasting coconut production in the Philippines with ARIMA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Cristina Teresa

2015-02-01

The study aimed to depict the situation of the coconut industry in the Philippines for the future years applying Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. Data on coconut production, one of the major industrial crops of the country, for the period of 1990 to 2012 were analyzed using time-series methods. Autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins autoregressive moving average model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. The forecasting power of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model was used to forecast coconut production for the eight leading years.

Managing the risks of disease transmission through trade: a commodities-based approach?

PubMed

Brückner, G K

2011-04-01

Since its founding in 1924, the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) has facilitated safe trade in animals and animal products by developing effective standards to prevent the spread of animal diseases across the globe. A protocol for recognising the disease-free status of countries is an integral part of this process and has been adopted and advanced through the years to assist OIE Member Countries in placing disease-free animals and their products on the international market. Options such as trade from disease-free zones and disease-free compartments are now available to Members and have proven to be a positive mechanism for facilitating trade. A further option is trading in safe commodities, i.e. animals and animal products that have been identified as safe to trade even in the presence of disease, either with or without applying risk mitigation measures before export. Although most Members have incorporated the acceptance of disease-free countries or zones into their animal health policies and sanitary measures, there still appears to be a reluctance to trade in commodities from infected countries, despite clear, scientifically based risk management standards that can be applied if needed. This paper offers some examples reflecting the apparent reluctance to trade in commodities and discusses how the standards in the OIE's Terrestrial Animal Health Code could be used to apply scientifically based risk management practices to review outdated policies.

Use of EOS Data in AWIPS for Weather Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary J.; Haines, Stephanie L.; Suggs, Ron J.; Bradshaw, Tom; Darden, Chris; Burks, Jason

2003-01-01

Operational weather forecasting relies heavily on real time data and modeling products for forecast preparation and dissemination of significant weather information to the public. The synthesis of this information (observations and model products) by the meteorologist is facilitated by a decision support system to display and integrate the information in a useful fashion. For the NWS this system is called Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). Over the last few years NASA has launched a series of new Earth Observation Satellites (EOS) for climate monitoring that include several instruments that provide high-resolution measurements of atmospheric and surface features important for weather forecasting and analysis. The key to the utilization of these unique new measurements by the NWS is the real time integration of the EOS data into the AWIPS system. This is currently being done in the Huntsville and Birmingham NWS Forecast Offices under the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Program. This paper describes the use of near real time MODIS and AIRS data in AWIPS to improve the detection of clouds, moisture variations, atmospheric stability, and thermal signatures that can lead to significant weather development. The paper and the conference presentation will focus on several examples where MODIS and AIRS data have made a positive impact on forecast accuracy. The results of an assessment of the utility of these products for weather forecast improvement made at the Huntsville NWS Forecast Office will be presented.

Impact of Brexit on the forest products industry of the United Kingdom and the rest of the world

Treesearch

Craig M. T. Johnston; Joseph Buongiorno

2016-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model was applied to forecast the effect of Brexit on the global forest products industry to2003 under two scenarios; an optimistic and pessimistic future storyline regarding the potential economic effect of Brexit. The forecasts integrated a range of gross domestic product growth rates using an average of the optimistic and...

Analysis of forecasting and inventory control of raw material supplies in PT INDAC INT’L

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesmana, E.; Subartini, B.; Riaman; Jabar, D. A.

2018-03-01

This study discusses the data forecasting sales of carbon electrodes at PT. INDAC INT L uses winters and double moving average methods, while for predicting the amount of inventory and cost required in ordering raw material of carbon electrode next period using Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model. The result of error analysis shows that winters method for next period gives result of MAE, MSE, and MAPE, the winters method is a better forecasting method for forecasting sales of carbon electrode products. So that PT. INDAC INT L is advised to provide products that will be sold following the sales amount by the winters method.

Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement March 1998)

EIA Publications

1998-01-01

The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

Comparison of production-phase environmental impact metrics derived at the farm- and national-scale for United States agricultural commodities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costello, Christine; Xue, Xiaobo; Howarth, Robert W.

2015-11-01

Agricultural production is critical for human survival and simultaneously contributes to ecosystem degradation. There is a need for transparent, rapid methods for evaluating the environmental impacts of agricultural production at the system-level in order to develop sustainable food supplies. We have developed a method for estimating the greenhouse gas (GHG), land use and reactive nitrogen inputs associated with the agricultural production phase of major crop and livestock commodities produced in the United States (US). Materials flow analysis (MFA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) techniques were applied to national inventory datasets. The net anthropogenic nitrogen inputs (NANI) toolbox served as the primary accounting tool for LCA and MFA. NANI was updated to create links between nitrogen fertilizer and nitrogen fixation associated with feed crops and animal food commodities. Results for the functional units kilogram (kg) of product and kg of protein for 2002 data fall within ranges of published LCA results from farm-scale studies across most metrics. Exceptions include eutrophication potential for milk and GHGs for chicken and eggs, these exceptions arise due to differing methods and boundary assumptions; suggestions for increasing agreement are identified. Land use for livestock commodities are generally higher than reported by other LCA studies due to the inclusion of all land identified as pasture or grazing land in the US in this study and given that most of the estimates from other LCAs were completed in Europe where land is less abundant. The method provides a view of the entire US agricultural system and could be applied to any year using publically available data. Additionally, utilizing a top-down approach reduces data collection and processing time making it possible to develop environmental inventory metrics rapidly for system-level decision-making.

Improvement of inventory control and forecast according to activity-based classifications: T company as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jui-Chan; Wu, Tzu-Jung; Chiu, Yen-Chun; Lu, Chunwei

2017-06-01

Inventory management is a major issue for all the industries. The supply of products to customers requires the readiness of the inventory. This allows rapid delivery and reduces waiting time for customers so that companies can profit from it. Any stock out or insufficiency will lead to loss of customers because their needs cannot be met. This will hurt firm profitability and market competitiveness. Inventory control is critical to retain liquidity and avoid overstocking. This is also the key to firm's survival and sustainability. To ensure an appropriate level of inventory, it is necessary to manage the inventory levels with sales forecast on an on-going basis. This paper seeks to assist Company T to improve its inventory control. Firstly, the products offered by Company T are classified into groups. The R programming language is used to stimulate and forecast future sales of different products. Different techniques are applied to manage the inventory levels according to the results of categorizations and forecasts that are consolidation of all the product items and grouping them into activity-based classifications, simulation and forecasting of future sales according to the categorization results, and formulation of different control techniques based on the simulations and forecasts. The results and the inventory management can be used to enhance the inventory control as well.

Helping Resource Managers Understand Hydroclimatic Variability and Forecasts: A Case Study in Research Equity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, H. C.; Pagano, T. C.; Sorooshian, S.; Bales, R.

2002-12-01

Expectations for hydroclimatic research are evolving as changes in the contract between science and society require researchers to provide "usable science" that can improve resource management policies and practices. However, decision makers have a broad range of abilities to access, interpret, and apply scientific research. "High-end users" have technical capabilities and operational flexibility capable of readily exploiting new information and products. "Low-end users" have fewer resources and are less likely to change their decision making processes without clear demonstration of benefits by influential early adopters (i.e., high-end users). Should research programs aim for efficiency, targeting high-end users? Should they aim for impact, targeting decisions with high economic value or great influence (e.g., state or national agencies)? Or should they focus on equity, whereby outcomes benefit groups across a range of capabilities? In this case study, we focus on hydroclimatic variability and forecasts. Agencies and individuals responsible for resource management decisions have varying perspectives about hydroclimatic variability and opportunities for using forecasts to improve decision outcomes. Improper interpretation of forecasts is widespread and many individuals find it difficult to place forecasts in an appropriate regional historical context. In addressing these issues, we attempted to mitigate traditional inequities in the scope, communication, and accessibility of hydroclimatic research results. High-end users were important in prioritizing information needs, while low-end users were important in determining how information should be communicated. For example, high-end users expressed hesitancy to use seasonal forecasts in the absence of quantitative performance evaluations. Our subsequently developed forecast evaluation framework and research products, however, were guided by the need for a continuum of evaluation measures and interpretive materials to enable low-end users to increase their understanding of probabilistic forecasts, credibility concepts, and implications for decision making. We also developed an interactive forecast assessment tool accessible over the Internet, to support resource decisions by individuals as well as agencies. The tool provides tutorials for guiding forecast interpretation, including quizzes that allow users to test their forecast interpretation skills. Users can monitor recent and historical observations for selected regions, communicated using terminology consistent with available forecast products. The tool also allows users to evaluate forecast performance for the regions, seasons, forecast lead times, and performance criteria relevant to their specific decision making situations. Using consistent product formats, the evaluation component allows individuals to use results at the level they are capable of understanding, while offering opportunity to shift to more sophisticated criteria. Recognizing that many individuals lack Internet access, the forecast assessment webtool design also includes capabilities for customized report generation so extension agents or other trusted information intermediaries can provide material to decision makers at meetings or site visits.

The CMEMS IBI-MFC Forecasting Service in 2017: Evolution and Novelties associated to the CMEMS service release

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorente, Pablo; Sotillo, Marcos G.; Gutknecht, Elodie; Dabrowski, Tomasz; Aouf, Lotfi; Toledano, Cristina; Amo-Baladron, Arancha; Aznar, Roland; De Pascual, Alvaro; Levier, Bruno; Bowyer, Peter; Rainaud, Romain; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique

2017-04-01

The IBI-MFC (Iberia-Biscay-Ireland Monitoring & Forecasting Centre) has been providing daily ocean model estimates and forecasts of diverse physical parameters for the IBI regional seas since 2011, first in the frame of MyOcean projects and later as part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). By April 2017, coincident with the V3 CMEMS Service Release, the IBI-MFC will extend their near real time (NRT) forecast capabilities. Two new operational IBI forecast systems will be operationally run to generate high resolution biochemical (BIO) and wave (WAV) products on the IBI area. The IBI-NRT-BIO forecast system, based on a 1/36° NEMO-PISCES model application, is run once a week coupled with the IBI physical forecast solution and nested to the CMEMS GLOBAL-BIO solution. On the other hand, the IBI-NRT-WAV system, based on a MeteoFrance-WAM 10km resolution model application, runs twice a day using ECMWF wind forcing. Among other novelties related to the evolution of the IBI physical (PHY) solution, it is worthwhile mentioning the provision, as part of the IBI-NRT-PHY product daily updated, of three-dimensional hourly data on specific areas within the IBI domain. The delivery of these new hourly data along the whole water column has been achieved after the request from IBI users, in order to foster downscaling approaches by providing coherent open boundary conditions to any potential high-resolution coastal model nested to IBI regional solution. An extensive skill assessment of IBI-NRT forecast products has been conducted through the NARVAL (North Atlantic Regional VALidation) web tool, by means of the automatic computation of statistical metrics and quality indicators. By now, this tool has been focused on the validation of the IBI-NRT-PHY system. Nowadays, NARVAL is facing a significant upgrade to validate the aforementioned new biogeochemical and wave IBI products. To this aim, satellite derived observations of chlorophyll and significant wave height will be used, together with in-situ wave parameters measured by mooring buoys. Within this validation framework, special emphasis has been placed on the intercomparison of different forecast model solutions in overlapping areas in order to evaluate models' performances and prognostic capabilities. This common uncertainty estimates of IBI and other model solution is currently performed by NARVAL using both CMEMS forecast model sources (i.e. GLOBAL-MFC, MED-MFC and NWS-MFC) and non-CMEMS operational forecast solutions (mostly downstream application nested to the IBI solution). With respect to the IBI multi-year (MY) products, it is worth mentioning that the actual biogeochemical and physical reanalysis products will be re-run along year 2017, extending its time coverage backwards until 1992. Based on these IBI-MY products, a variety of climatic indicators related to essential oceanographic processes (i.e. western coastal upwelling or the Mediterranean Outflow Water) are currently being computed.

Food, Feed and Fuel: a Story About Nitrogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galloway, J. N.; Burke, M. B.; Mooney, H. A.; Steinfeld, H.

2008-12-01

Humans obtain metabolic energy by eating food. Nitrogen is required to grow food, but natural supplies of N for human purposes have been inadequate since the beginning of the twentieth century. The Haber-Bosch process now provides a virtually inexhaustible supply of nitrogen, limited primarily by the cost of energy. However, most nitrogen used in food production is lost to the environment, where it cascades through environmental reservoirs contributing to many of the major environmental issues of the day. Furthermore, growing international trade in nitrogen-containing commodities is increasingly replacing wind and water as an important international transporter of nitrogen around the globe. Finally, the rapid growth in crop-based biofuels, and its attendant effects on the global production and trade of all agricultural commodities, could greatly affect global patterns of N use and loss. In the light of the findings above, this paper examines the role of nitrogen in food, feed and fuel production. It describes the beneficial consequences for food production and the negative consequences associated with the commodity nitrogen cascade and the environmental nitrogen cascade. The paper reviews estimates of future projections of nitrogen demands for food and fuel, including the impact of changing diets in the developing world. The paper concludes by presenting the potential interactions among global change, agricultural production and the nitrogen and carbon cycles.

Understanding Farmers’ Forecast Use from Their Beliefs, Values, Social Norms, and Perceived Obstacles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Qi; Pytlik Zillig, Lisa M.; Lynne, Gary D.; Tomkins, Alan J.; Waltman, William J.; Hayes, Michael J.; Hubbard, Kenneth G.; Artikov, Ikrom; Hoffman, Stacey J.; Wilhite, Donald A.

2006-09-01

Although the accuracy of weather and climate forecasts is continuously improving and new information retrieved from climate data is adding to the understanding of climate variation, use of the forecasts and climate information by farmers in farming decisions has changed little. This lack of change may result from knowledge barriers and psychological, social, and economic factors that undermine farmer motivation to use forecasts and climate information. According to the theory of planned behavior (TPB), the motivation to use forecasts may arise from personal attitudes, social norms, and perceived control or ability to use forecasts in specific decisions. These attributes are examined using data from a survey designed around the TPB and conducted among farming communities in the region of eastern Nebraska and the western U.S. Corn Belt. There were three major findings: 1) the utility and value of the forecasts for farming decisions as perceived by farmers are, on average, around 3.0 on a 0 7 scale, indicating much room to improve attitudes toward the forecast value. 2) The use of forecasts by farmers to influence decisions is likely affected by several social groups that can provide “expert viewpoints” on forecast use. 3) A major obstacle, next to forecast accuracy, is the perceived identity and reliability of the forecast makers. Given the rapidly increasing number of forecasts in this growing service business, the ambiguous identity of forecast providers may have left farmers confused and may have prevented them from developing both trust in forecasts and skills to use them. These findings shed light on productive avenues for increasing the influence of forecasts, which may lead to greater farming productivity. In addition, this study establishes a set of reference points that can be used for comparisons with future studies to quantify changes in forecast use and influence.

48 CFR 32.905 - Payment documentation and process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... products, or fish; 5 days on contracts for perishable agricultural commodities, dairy products, edible fats or oils, and food products prepared from edible fats or oils), with the reasons why it is not a...

Demand Forecasting: DLA’S Aviation Supply Chain High Value Products

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-09

program at USS CONSTELLATION (CV 64), San Diego CA LCDR Carlos Lopez Education  MBA in Supply Chain Management, Naval Postgraduate School  BS in...Exponential Smoothing Forecasts ............... 118 xv Figure 80. NIIN 01-463-4340 Seasonal Exponential Smoothing Forecast .............. 119 Figure...5310 Seasonal Exponential Smoothing ............................ 142 Figure 102. NIIN 01-507-5310 12-Month Forecast Simulation

The Transition of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Total Ozone Products to Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, E. B.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedlovec, G. J.

2014-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (NASA SPoRT) has transitioned a total column ozone product from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrievals to the Weather Prediction Center and Ocean Prediction Center. The total column ozone product is used to diagnose regions of warm, dry, ozone-rich, stratospheric air capable of descending to the surface to create high-impact non-convective winds. Over the past year, forecasters have analyzed the Red, Green, Blue (RGB) Air Mass imagery in conjunction with the AIRS total column ozone to aid high wind forecasts. One of the limitations of the total ozone product is that it is difficult for forecasters to determine whether elevated ozone concentrations are related to stratospheric air or climatologically high values of ozone in certain regions. During the summer of 2013, SPoRT created an AIRS ozone anomaly product which calculates the percent of normal ozone based on a global stratospheric ozone mean climatology. With the knowledge that ozone values 125 percent of normal and greater typically represent stratospheric air; the anomaly product can be used with the total column ozone product to confirm regions of stratospheric air. This paper describes the generation of these products along with forecaster feedback concerning the use of the AIRS ozone products in conjunction with the RGB Air Mass product to access the utility and transition of the products.

Ensemble forecasting for renewable energy applications - status and current challenges for their generation and verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinson, Pierre

2016-04-01

The operational management of renewable energy generation in power systems and electricity markets requires forecasts in various forms, e.g., deterministic or probabilistic, continuous or categorical, depending upon the decision process at hand. Besides, such forecasts may also be necessary at various spatial and temporal scales, from high temporal resolutions (in the order of minutes) and very localized for an offshore wind farm, to coarser temporal resolutions (hours) and covering a whole country for day-ahead power scheduling problems. As of today, weather predictions are a common input to forecasting methodologies for renewable energy generation. Since for most decision processes, optimal decisions can only be made if accounting for forecast uncertainties, ensemble predictions and density forecasts are increasingly seen as the product of choice. After discussing some of the basic approaches to obtaining ensemble forecasts of renewable power generation, it will be argued that space-time trajectories of renewable power production may or may not be necessitate post-processing ensemble forecasts for relevant weather variables. Example approaches and test case applications will be covered, e.g., looking at the Horns Rev offshore wind farm in Denmark, or gridded forecasts for the whole continental Europe. Eventually, we will illustrate some of the limitations of current frameworks to forecast verification, which actually make it difficult to fully assess the quality of post-processing approaches to obtain renewable energy predictions.

Farming and the geography of nutrient production for human use: a transdisciplinary analysis.

PubMed

Herrero, Mario; Thornton, Philip K; Power, Brendan; Bogard, Jessica R; Remans, Roseline; Fritz, Steffen; Gerber, James S; Nelson, Gerald; See, Linda; Waha, Katharina; Watson, Reg A; West, Paul C; Samberg, Leah H; van de Steeg, Jeannette; Stephenson, Eloise; van Wijk, Mark; Havlík, Petr

2017-04-01

Information about the global structure of agriculture and nutrient production and its diversity is essential to improve present understanding of national food production patterns, agricultural livelihoods, and food chains, and their linkages to land use and their associated ecosystems services. Here we provide a plausible breakdown of global agricultural and nutrient production by farm size, and also study the associations between farm size, agricultural diversity, and nutrient production. This analysis is crucial to design interventions that might be appropriately targeted to promote healthy diets and ecosystems in the face of population growth, urbanisation, and climate change. We used existing spatially-explicit global datasets to estimate the production levels of 41 major crops, seven livestock, and 14 aquaculture and fish products. From overall production estimates, we estimated the production of vitamin A, vitamin B 12 , folate, iron, zinc, calcium, calories, and protein. We also estimated the relative contribution of farms of different sizes to the production of different agricultural commodities and associated nutrients, as well as how the diversity of food production based on the number of different products grown per geographic pixel and distribution of products within this pixel (Shannon diversity index [ H ]) changes with different farm sizes. Globally, small and medium farms (≤50 ha) produce 51-77% of nearly all commodities and nutrients examined here. However, important regional differences exist. Large farms (>50 ha) dominate production in North America, South America, and Australia and New Zealand. In these regions, large farms contribute between 75% and 100% of all cereal, livestock, and fruit production, and the pattern is similar for other commodity groups. By contrast, small farms (≤20 ha) produce more than 75% of most food commodities in sub-Saharan Africa, southeast Asia, south Asia, and China. In Europe, west Asia and north Africa, and central America, medium-size farms (20-50 ha) also contribute substantially to the production of most food commodities. Very small farms (≤2 ha) are important and have local significance in sub-Saharan Africa, southeast Asia, and south Asia, where they contribute to about 30% of most food commodities. The majority of vegetables (81%), roots and tubers (72%), pulses (67%), fruits (66%), fish and livestock products (60%), and cereals (56%) are produced in diverse landscapes ( H >1·5). Similarly, the majority of global micronutrients (53-81%) and protein (57%) are also produced in more diverse agricultural landscapes ( H >1·5). By contrast, the majority of sugar (73%) and oil crops (57%) are produced in less diverse ones ( H ≤1·5), which also account for the majority of global calorie production (56%). The diversity of agricultural and nutrient production diminishes as farm size increases. However, areas of the world with higher agricultural diversity produce more nutrients, irrespective of farm size. Our results show that farm size and diversity of agricultural production vary substantially across regions and are key structural determinants of food and nutrient production that need to be considered in plans to meet social, economic, and environmental targets. At the global level, both small and large farms have key roles in food and nutrition security. Efforts to maintain production diversity as farm sizes increase seem to be necessary to maintain the production of diverse nutrients and viable, multifunctional, sustainable landscapes. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, CGIAR Research Programs on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security and on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health funded by the CGIAR Fund Council, Daniel and Nina Carasso Foundation, European Union, International Fund for Agricultural Development, Australian Research Council, National Science Foundation, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change-Belmont Forum.

Implications of Climate Volatility for Agricultural Commodity Markets in the Presence of Biofuel Mandates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Hertel, T. W.; Beckman, J.

2011-12-01

In presence of bio-fuels, link between energy and agricultural commodity markets has become more complex. An increase in ethanol production to minimum 15bn gallons a year - Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and current technically permissible maximum 10% blending limit - Blend Wall (BW); make the link even stronger. If oil prices in future do not rise significantly from their current levels, this minimum production requirement would likely be binding. In such a scenario any fluctuation in crop production will have to be absorbed by the non-ethanol usage of the crop and would translate into crop prices adjusting to clear the markets and therefore the commodity prices will be more volatile. At high oil prices it is possible that the BW may become binding, severing the link between oil prices and commodity prices as well, potentially leading to higher price volatility. Hertel and Beckman (2010) find that, with both RFS and BW simultaneously binding, corn price volatility due to supply side shocks (which could arise from extreme climate events) could be more than 50% as large as in the absence of bio-fuel policies. So energy markets are important determinants of agricultural commodity price volatility. This proposal intends to introduce the increased supply side volatility on account of climate change and volatility, in the framework. Global warming on account of increased GHG concentrations is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of hot extremes in US (Diffenbaugh et al. 2008) and therefore affect corn yields. With supply shocks expected to increase, binding RFS and BW will exacerbate the volatility, while if they are non-binding then the price changes could be cushioned. We propose to model the impacts of climate changes and volatility on commodity prices by linking three main components - a. Projections for change in temperature and precipitation using climate model b. A statistical model to predict impacts of change in climate variable on corn yields in US c. Computable General Equilibrium economic model that uses the results of the two above as inputs, to predict commodity prices under alternative energy price scenarios We start with the high resolution projections on temperature and precipitation for US corn-belt for years 2020-2040. A modified version of statistical relationship estimated by Schlenker and Roberts, is used to translate climate variables' change into yield changes for each. Shocks are sampled from this distribution to decipher the corresponding volatility in commodity prices. All else constant, the increased supply side variability should result in increased price volatility; high oil prices however give markets an incentive to produce more than 15bn gallons ethanol a year (non-binding RFS) and part of supply fluctuation in crop production can be borne by ethanol production and impact of climate change on crop prices would be less dramatic than it would have been if the entire adjustment was to come through non-ethanol usage. So impact of climate change clearly depends on energy markets and policy decisions and results should provide insights into impact of climate change on agricultural prices under different energy market scenarios.

17 CFR 240.6a-4 - Notice of registration under Section 6(g) of the Act, amendment to such notice, and supplemental...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and such designation is not suspended by order of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission; or (B) Is registered as a derivative transaction execution facility... security futures products by filing Form 1-N (§ 249.10 of this chapter) (“notice of registration”), in...

40 CFR Appendix K to Subpart A of... - Commodity Codes From the Harmonized Tariff Schedule for Controlled Substances and Used Controlled...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Commodity Codes From the Harmonized Tariff Schedule for Controlled Substances and Used Controlled Substances K Appendix K to Subpart A of...) PROTECTION OF STRATOSPHERIC OZONE Production and Consumption Controls Pt. 82, Subpt. A, App. K Appendix K to...

40 CFR Appendix K to Subpart A of... - Commodity Codes From the Harmonized Tariff Schedule for Controlled Substances and Used Controlled...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Commodity Codes From the Harmonized Tariff Schedule for Controlled Substances and Used Controlled Substances K Appendix K to Subpart A of...) PROTECTION OF STRATOSPHERIC OZONE Production and Consumption Controls Pt. 82, Subpt. A, App. K Appendix K to...

40 CFR Appendix K to Subpart A of... - Commodity Codes From the Harmonized Tariff Schedule for Controlled Substances and Used Controlled...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Commodity Codes From the Harmonized Tariff Schedule for Controlled Substances and Used Controlled Substances K Appendix K to Subpart A of...) PROTECTION OF STRATOSPHERIC OZONE Production and Consumption Controls Pt. 82, Subpt. A, App. K Appendix K to...

40 CFR Appendix K to Subpart A of... - Commodity Codes From the Harmonized Tariff Schedule for Controlled Substances and Used Controlled...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Commodity Codes From the Harmonized Tariff Schedule for Controlled Substances and Used Controlled Substances K Appendix K To Subpart A Of...) PROTECTION OF STRATOSPHERIC OZONE Production and Consumption Controls Pt. 82, Subpt. A, App. K Appendix K To...

40 CFR Appendix K to Subpart A of... - Commodity Codes From the Harmonized Tariff Schedule for Controlled Substances and Used Controlled...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Commodity Codes From the Harmonized Tariff Schedule for Controlled Substances and Used Controlled Substances K Appendix K to Subpart A of...) PROTECTION OF STRATOSPHERIC OZONE Production and Consumption Controls Pt. 82, Subpt. A, App. K Appendix K to...

76 FR 6599 - Notice of Intent To Request Revision and Extension of a Currently Approved Information Collection

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-07

... Production Survey. Revision to burden hours will be needed due to changes in the size of the target... questions that would be directed at different commodities each year. In the pilot year we plan to target organically grown apples and grapes. Each year as new target commodities are selected for this survey an...

17 CFR 41.13 - Futures contracts on security indexes trading on or subject to the rules of a foreign board of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Futures contracts on security... Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION SECURITY FUTURES PRODUCTS Narrow-Based Security Indexes § 41.13 Futures contracts on security indexes trading on or subject to the rules of a foreign...

The future of the non-timber forest product industry

Treesearch

Luc C. Duchesne; Iain Davidson-Hunt; John C. Zasada

2001-01-01

The boreal and northern forests of North America cover a vast area and have low population density with many inhabitants living in small communities. The inhabitants of these communities as well as those from urban areas are dependent on the forest resource for many commodity and non-commodity values. Although the socio-cultural outlook is changing somewhat, past and...

Hardware Testing and System Evaluation: Procedures to Evaluate Commodity Hardware for Production Clusters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goebel, J

2004-02-27

Without stable hardware any program will fail. The frustration and expense of supporting bad hardware can drain an organization, delay progress, and frustrate everyone involved. At Stanford Linear Accelerator Center (SLAC), we have created a testing method that helps our group, SLAC Computer Services (SCS), weed out potentially bad hardware and purchase the best hardware at the best possible cost. Commodity hardware changes often, so new evaluations happen periodically each time we purchase systems and minor re-evaluations happen for revised systems for our clusters, about twice a year. This general framework helps SCS perform correct, efficient evaluations. This article outlinesmore » SCS's computer testing methods and our system acceptance criteria. We expanded the basic ideas to other evaluations such as storage, and we think the methods outlined in this article has helped us choose hardware that is much more stable and supportable than our previous purchases. We have found that commodity hardware ranges in quality, so systematic method and tools for hardware evaluation were necessary. This article is based on one instance of a hardware purchase, but the guidelines apply to the general problem of purchasing commodity computer systems for production computational work.« less

Climate forecasts for corn producer decision making

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Corn is the most widely grown crop in the Americas, with annual production in the United States of approximately 332 million metric tons. Improved climate forecasts, together with climate-related decision tools for corn producers based on these improved forecasts, could substantially reduce uncertai...

Consensus Seasonal Flood Forecasts and Warning Response System (FFWRS): an alternate for nonstructural flood management in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Rashed

2005-06-01

Despite advances in short-range flood forecasting and information dissemination systems in Bangladesh, the present system is less than satisfactory. This is because of short lead-time products, outdated dissemination networks, and lack of direct feedback from the end-user. One viable solution is to produce long-lead seasonal forecasts--the demand for which is significantly increasing in Bangladesh--and disseminate these products through the appropriate channels. As observed in other regions, the success of seasonal forecasts, in contrast to short-term forecast, depends on consensus among the participating institutions. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Response System (henceforth, FFWRS) has been found to be an important component in a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood management. A general consensus in producing seasonal forecasts can thus be achieved by enhancing the existing FFWRS. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to revisit and modify the framework of an ideal warning response system for issuance of consensus seasonal flood forecasts in Bangladesh. The five-stage FFWRS-i) Flood forecasting, ii) Forecast interpretation and message formulation, iii) Warning preparation and dissemination, iv) Responses, and v) Review and analysis-has been modified. To apply the concept of consensus forecast, a framework similar to that of the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) has been discussed. Finally, the need for a climate Outlook Fora has been emphasized for a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood hazard management in Bangladesh.

Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page

Science.gov Websites

grids, quantitative precipitation, and winter weather outlook probabilities can be found at: http Short Range Products » More Medium Range Products Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Legacy Page Discussion (Day 1-3) Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College

Egg production forecasting: Determining efficient modeling approaches.

PubMed

Ahmad, H A

2011-12-01

Several mathematical or statistical and artificial intelligence models were developed to compare egg production forecasts in commercial layers. Initial data for these models were collected from a comparative layer trial on commercial strains conducted at the Poultry Research Farms, Auburn University. Simulated data were produced to represent new scenarios by using means and SD of egg production of the 22 commercial strains. From the simulated data, random examples were generated for neural network training and testing for the weekly egg production prediction from wk 22 to 36. Three neural network architectures-back-propagation-3, Ward-5, and the general regression neural network-were compared for their efficiency to forecast egg production, along with other traditional models. The general regression neural network gave the best-fitting line, which almost overlapped with the commercial egg production data, with an R(2) of 0.71. The general regression neural network-predicted curve was compared with original egg production data, the average curves of white-shelled and brown-shelled strains, linear regression predictions, and the Gompertz nonlinear model. The general regression neural network was superior in all these comparisons and may be the model of choice if the initial overprediction is managed efficiently. In general, neural network models are efficient, are easy to use, require fewer data, and are practical under farm management conditions to forecast egg production.

An analysis of cropland mask choice and ancillary data for annual corn yield forecasting using MODIS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Yang; Campbell, James B.; Taff, Gregory N.; Zheng, Baojuan

2015-06-01

The Midwestern United States is one of the world's most important corn-producing regions. Monitoring and forecasting of corn yields in this intensive agricultural region are important activities to support food security, commodity markets, bioenergy industries, and formation of national policies. This study aims to develop forecasting models that have the capability to provide mid-season prediction of county-level corn yields for the entire Midwestern United States. We used multi-temporal MODIS NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) 16-day composite data as the primary input, with digital elevation model (DEM) and parameter-elevation relationships on independent slopes model (PRISM) climate data as additional inputs. The DEM and PRISM data, along with three types of cropland masks were tested and compared to evaluate their impacts on model predictive accuracy. Our results suggested that the use of general cropland masks (e.g., summer crop or cultivated crops) generated similar results compared with use of an annual corn-specific mask. Leave-one-year-out cross-validation resulted in an average R2 of 0.75 and RMSE value of 1.10 t/ha. Using a DEM as an additional model input slightly improved performance, while inclusion of PRISM climate data appeared not to be important for our regional corn-yield model. Furthermore, our model has potential for real-time/early prediction. Our corn yield esitmates are available as early as late July, which is an improvement upon previous corn-yield prediction models. In addition to annual corn yield forecasting, we examined model uncertainties through spatial and temporal analysis of the model's predictive error distribution. The magnitude of predictive error (by county) appears to be associated with the spatial patterns of corn fields in the study area.

Technology Development of Salak (Salacca Zalacca) Chips With Vacuum Frying Machine Base On Expert System In Kramat-Bangkalan Regency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosida, D. F.; Happyanto; Anggraeni; Sugiarto; Hapsari

2018-01-01

Agropolitan Program is one form of regional development to improve agribusiness system and effort to improve the welfare of the community. One of the leading commodities in Bangkalan agroclimates is salak which is a potentially very large commodity to be developed. Salak commodities in Kramat Bangkalan Indonesia have developed varous salak produced such as dates of salak, syrup and dodol salak. Salak chips was the target of innovation from processed salak. The Production of salak chips using frying technology with vacuum system to obtain crunchy chips. To get the results need to be developed synergy technology to combine the process conditions and the right system in producing good quality salak chips. Bangkalan Regency is the potential to continue to develop products using a variety of salak to the processed form of vacuum frying machine based on expert system so that the resulting product would be great texture, aroma and taste. This will make the area of Bangkalan, Indonesia be more independent in producing and increasing revenue.

Resource nationalism in Indonesia—Effects of the 2014 mineral export ban

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lederer, Graham W.

2016-09-27

Resource nationalism encompasses a broad range of political and economic actions taken by Governments to regulate the extraction of natural resources within their borders. Policies such as increased tariffs or export restrictions can have far-reaching economic effects on international trade. As the Governments of several developing countries consider enacting nationalistic policies, an examination of the 2014 mineral export ban in Indonesia provides an instructive example of the possible impacts of resource nationalism. Significant changes in the production and trade of unprocessed (that is, ores and concentrates) and processed (that is, refined metal) aluminum, copper, and nickel before and after the export ban form the basis of this study.The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Minerals Information Center (NMIC) tracks production and trade of mineral commodities between producer and consumer countries. Materials flow studies clarify the effects of an export ban on different mineral commodities by assessing changes in production, processing capacity, and trade. Using extensive data collection and monitoring procedures, the USGS NMIC investigated the effects of resource nationalism on the flow of mineral commodities from Indonesia to the global economy.

Molecular Breeding Algae For Improved Traits For The Conversion Of Waste To Fuels And Commodities.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bagwell, C.

This Exploratory LDRD aimed to develop molecular breeding methodology for biofuel algal strain improvement for applications in waste to energy / commodity conversion technologies. Genome shuffling technologies, specifically protoplast fusion, are readily available for the rapid production of genetic hybrids for trait improvement and have been used successfully in bacteria, yeast, plants and animals. However, genome fusion has not been developed for exploiting the remarkable untapped potential of eukaryotic microalgae for large scale integrated bio-conversion and upgrading of waste components to valued commodities, fuel and energy. The proposed molecular breeding technology is effectively sexual reproduction in algae; though compared tomore » traditional breeding, the molecular route is rapid, high-throughput and permits selection / improvement of complex traits which cannot be accomplished by traditional genetics. Genome fusion technologies are the cutting edge of applied biotechnology. The goals of this Exploratory LDRD were to 1) establish reliable methodology for protoplast production among diverse microalgal strains, and 2) demonstrate genome fusion for hybrid strain production using a single gene encoded trait as a proof of the concept.« less

Modelling world gold prices and USD foreign exchange relationship using multivariate GARCH model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ping, Pung Yean; Ahmad, Maizah Hura Binti

2014-12-01

World gold price is a popular investment commodity. The series have often been modeled using univariate models. The objective of this paper is to show that there is a co-movement between gold price and USD foreign exchange rate. Using the effect of the USD foreign exchange rate on the gold price, a model that can be used to forecast future gold prices is developed. For this purpose, the current paper proposes a multivariate GARCH (Bivariate GARCH) model. Using daily prices of both series from 01.01.2000 to 05.05.2014, a causal relation between the two series understudied are found and a bivariate GARCH model is produced.

Critical mineral resources of the United States—Economic and environmental geology and prospects for future supply

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schulz, Klaus J.; DeYoung,, John H.; Seal, Robert R.; Bradley, Dwight C.

2017-12-19

SummaryMineral commodities are vital for economic growth, improving the quality of life, providing for national defense, and the overall functioning of modern society. Minerals are being used in larger quantities than ever before and in an increasingly diverse range of applications. With the increasing demand for a considerably more diverse suite of mineral commodities has come renewed recognition that competition and conflict over mineral resources can pose significant risks to the manufacturing industries that depend on them. In addition, production of many mineral commodities has become concentrated in relatively few countries (for example, tungsten, rare-earth elements, and antimony in China; niobium in Brazil; and platinum-group elements in South Africa and Russia), thus increasing the risk for supply disruption owing to political, social, or other factors. At the same time, an increasing awareness of and sensitivity to potential environmental and health issues caused by the mining and processing of many mineral commodities may place additional restrictions on mineral supplies. These factors have led a number of Governments, including the Government of the United States, to attempt to identify those mineral commodities that are viewed as most “critical” to the national economy and (or) security if supplies should be curtailed.This book presents resource and geologic information on the following 23 mineral commodities currently among those viewed as important to the national economy and national security of the United States: antimony (Sb), barite (barium, Ba), beryllium (Be), cobalt (Co), fluorite or fluorspar (fluorine, F), gallium (Ga), germanium (Ge), graphite (carbon, C), hafnium (Hf), indium (In), lithium (Li), manganese (Mn), niobium (Nb), platinum-group elements (PGE), rare-earth elements (REE), rhenium (Re), selenium (Se), tantalum (Ta), tellurium (Te), tin (Sn), titanium (Ti), vanadium (V), and zirconium (Zr). For a number of these commodities—for example, graphite, manganese, niobium, and tantalum—the United States is currently wholly dependent on imports to meet its needs. The first two chapters (A and B) deal with general information pertinent to the study of mineral resources. Chapters C through V describe individual mineral commodities and include an overview of current uses of the commodity, identified resources and their distribution nationally and globally, the state of current geologic knowledge, the potential for finding additional deposits nationally and globally, and geoenvironmental issues that may be related to the production and uses of the commodity. These chapters are updates of the commodity chapters published in 1973 in U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 820, “United States Mineral Resources.”

Application of polar orbiter products in weather forecasting using open source tools and open standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plieger, Maarten; de Vreede, Ernst

2015-04-01

EUMETSAT disseminates data for a number of polar satellites. At KNMI these data are not fully used for operational weather forecasting mainly because of the irregular coverage and lack of tools for handling these different types of data and products. For weather forecasting there is a lot of interest in the application of products from these polar orbiters. One of the key aspects is the high-resolution of these products, which can complement the information provided by numerical weather forecasts. Another advantage over geostationary satellites is the high coverage at higher latitudes and lack of parallax. Products like the VIIRS day-night band offer many possibilities for this application. This presentation will describe a project that aims to make available a number of products from polar satellites to the forecasting operation. The goal of the project is to enable easy and timely access to polar orbiter products and enable combined presentations of satellite imagery with model data. The system will be able to generate RGB composites (“false colour images”) for operational use. The system will be built using open source components and open standards. Pytroll components are used for data handling, reprojection and derived product generation. For interactive presentation of imagery the browser based ADAGUC WMS viewer component is used. Image generation is done by ADAGUC server components, which provide OGC WMS services. Polar satellite products are stored as true color RGBA data in the NetCDF file format, the satellite swaths are stored as regular grids with their own custom geographical projection. The ADAGUC WMS system is able to reproject, render and combine these data in a webbrowser interactively. Results and lessons learned will be presented at the conference.

Solvent (acetone-butanol: ab) production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This article describes production of butanol [acetone-butanol-ethanol, (also called AB or ABE or solvent)] by fermentation using both traditional and current technologies. AB production from agricultural commodities, such as corn and molasses, was an important historical fermentation. Unfortunately,...

Predicting Airspace Capacity Impacts Using the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Carl

2010-01-01

Convective weather is currently the largest contributor to air traffic delays in the United States. In order to make effective traffic flow management decisions to mitigate these delays, weather forecasts must be made as early and as accurately as possible. A forecast product that could be used to mitigate convective weather impacts is the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation. This product provides forecasts of cloud water content and convective top heights at 0- to 8-hour look-ahead times. The objective of this study was to examine a method of predicting the impact of convective weather on air traffic sector capacities using these forecasts. Polygons representing forecast convective weather were overlaid at multiple flight levels on a sector map to calculate the fraction of each sector covered by weather. The fractional volume coverage was used as the primary metric to determine convection s impact on sectors. Results reveal that the forecasts can be used to predict the probability and magnitude of weather impacts on sector capacity up to eight hours in advance.

Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Adoption by Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garbrecht, Jurgen; Meinke, Holger; Sivakumar, Mannava V. K.; Motha, Raymond P.; Salinger, Michael J.

2005-06-01

Recent advances in atmospheric and ocean sciences and a better understanding of the global climate have led to skillful climate forecasts at seasonal to interannual timescales, even in midlatitudes. These scientific advances and forecasting capabilities have opened the door to practical applications that benefit society. The benefits include the reduction of weather/climate related risks and vulnerability, increased economic opportunities, enhanced food security, mitigation of adverse climate impacts, protection of environmental quality, and so forth. Agriculture in particular can benefit substantially from accurate long-lead seasonal climate forecasts. Indeed, agricultural production very much depends on weather, climate, and water availability, and unexpected departures from anticipated climate conditions can thwart the best laid management plans. Timely climate forecasts offer means to reduce losses in drought years, increase profitability in good years, deal more effectively with climate variability, and choose from targeted risk-management strategies. In addition to benefiting farmers, forecasts can also help marketing systems and downstream users prepare for anticipated production outcomes and associated consequences.

The GOES-R/JPSS Approach for Identifying Hazardous Low Clouds: Overview and Operational Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvert, Corey; Pavolonis, Michael; Lindstrom, Scott; Gravelle, Chad; Terborg, Amanda

2017-04-01

Low ceiling and visibility is a weather hazard that nearly every forecaster, in nearly every National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office (WFO), must regularly address. In addition, national forecast centers such as the Aviation Weather Center (AWC), Alaska Aviation Weather Unit (AAWU) and the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) are responsible for issuing low ceiling and visibility related products. As such, reliable methods for detecting and characterizing hazardous low clouds are needed. Traditionally, hazardous areas of Fog/Low Stratus (FLS) are identified using a simple stand-alone satellite product that is constructed by subtracting the 3.9 and 11 μm brightness temperatures. However, the 3.9-11 μm brightness temperature difference (BTD) has several major limitations. In an effort to address the limitations of the BTD product, the GOES-R Algorithm Working Group (AWG) developed an approach that fuses satellite, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) analyses, and other data sets (e.g. digital surface elevation maps, surface emissivity maps, and surface type maps) to determine the probability that hazardous low clouds are present using a naïve Bayesian classifier. In addition, recent research has focused on blending geostationary (e.g. GOES-R) and low earth orbit (e.g. JPSS) satellite data to further improve the products. The FLS algorithm has adopted an enterprise approach in that it can utilize satellite data from a variety of current and future operational sensors and NWP data from a variety of models. The FLS products are available in AWIPS/N-AWIPS/AWIPS-II and have been evaluated within NWS operations over the last four years as part of the Satellite Proving Ground. Forecaster feedback has been predominantly positive and references to these products within Area Forecast Discussions (AFD's) indicate that the products are influencing operational forecasts. At the request of the NWS, the FLS products are currently being transitioned to NOAA/NESDIS operations, which will ensure that users have long-term access to these products. This paper will provide an overview of the FLS products and illustrate how they are being used to improve transportation safety and efficiency.

Forecasting annual aboveground net primary production in the intermountain west

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

For many land manager’s annual aboveground net primary production, or plant growth, is a key factor affecting business success, profitability and each land manager's ability to successfully meet land management objectives. The strategy often utilized for forecasting plant growth is to assume every y...

PERVAPORATION MEMBRANE SYSTEMS FOR VOLATILE FERMENTATION PRODUCT RECOVERY AND DEHYDRATION

EPA Science Inventory

The economics of fermentative production of fuels and commodity chemicals can be a strong function of the efficiency with which the fermentation products are removed from the biological media. Due to growth inhibition by some fermentation products, including ethanol, concentrati...

Evaluation of weather forecast systems for storm surge modeling in the Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garzon, Juan L.; Ferreira, Celso M.; Padilla-Hernandez, Roberto

2018-01-01

Accurate forecast of sea-level heights in coastal areas depends, among other factors, upon a reliable coupling of a meteorological forecast system to a hydrodynamic and wave system. This study evaluates the predictive skills of the coupled circulation and wind-wave model system (ADCIRC+SWAN) for simulating storm tides in the Chesapeake Bay, forced by six different products: (1) Global Forecast System (GFS), (2) Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2, (3) North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), (4) Rapid Refresh (RAP), (5) European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and (6) the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2). This evaluation is based on the hindcasting of four events: Irene (2011), Sandy (2012), Joaquin (2015), and Jonas (2016). By comparing the simulated water levels to observations at 13 monitoring stations, we have found that the ADCIR+SWAN System forced by the following: (1) the HURDAT2-based system exhibited the weakest statistical skills owing to a noteworthy overprediction of the simulated wind speed; (2) the ECMWF, RAP, and NAM products captured the moment of the peak and moderately its magnitude during all storms, with a correlation coefficient ranging between 0.98 and 0.77; (3) the CFS system exhibited the worst averaged root-mean-square difference (excepting HURDAT2); (4) the GFS system (the lowest horizontal resolution product tested) resulted in a clear underprediction of the maximum water elevation. Overall, the simulations forced by NAM and ECMWF systems induced the most accurate results best accuracy to support water level forecasting in the Chesapeake Bay during both tropical and extra-tropical storms.

Combining a Spatial Model and Demand Forecasts to Map Future Surface Coal Mining in Appalachia

PubMed Central

Strager, Michael P.; Strager, Jacquelyn M.; Evans, Jeffrey S.; Dunscomb, Judy K.; Kreps, Brad J.; Maxwell, Aaron E.

2015-01-01

Predicting the locations of future surface coal mining in Appalachia is challenging for a number of reasons. Economic and regulatory factors impact the coal mining industry and forecasts of future coal production do not specifically predict changes in location of future coal production. With the potential environmental impacts from surface coal mining, prediction of the location of future activity would be valuable to decision makers. The goal of this study was to provide a method for predicting future surface coal mining extents under changing economic and regulatory forecasts through the year 2035. This was accomplished by integrating a spatial model with production demand forecasts to predict (1 km2) gridded cell size land cover change. Combining these two inputs was possible with a ratio which linked coal extraction quantities to a unit area extent. The result was a spatial distribution of probabilities allocated over forecasted demand for the Appalachian region including northern, central, southern, and eastern Illinois coal regions. The results can be used to better plan for land use alterations and potential cumulative impacts. PMID:26090883

The GOES-R Proving Ground: 2012 Update

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurka, J.; Goodman, S. J.; Schmit, T.; Demaria, M.; Mostek, A.; Siewert, C.; Reed, B.

2011-12-01

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-R will provide a great leap forward in observing capabilities, but will also offer a significant challenge to ensure that users are ready to exploit the vast improvements in spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions. To ensure user readiness, forecasters and other users must have access to prototype advanced products well before launch, and have the opportunity to provide feedback to product developers and computing and communications managers. The operational assessment is critical to ensure that the end products and NOAA's computing and communications systems truly meet their needs in a rapidly evolving environment. The GOES-R Proving Ground (PG) engages the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast, watch and warning community and other agency users in pre-operational demonstrations of select products with GOES-R attributes (enhanced spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution). In the PG, developers and forecasters test and apply algorithms for new GOES-R satellite data and products using proxy and simulated data sets, including observations from current and future satellite instruments (MODIS, AIRS, IASI, SEVIRI, NAST-I, NPP/VIIRS/CrIS, LIS), lightning networks, and computer simulated products. The complete list of products to be evaluated in 2012 will be determined after evaluating results from experiments in 2011 at the NWS' Storm Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, Aviation Weather Center, Ocean Prediction Center, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, and from the six NWS regions. In 2012 and beyond, the PG will test and validate data processing and distribution systems and the applications of these products in operational settings. Additionally developers and forecasters will test and apply display techniques and decision aid tools in operational environments. The PG is both a recipient and a source of training. Training materials are developed using various distance training tools in close collaboration with NWS Training Division and its partners at COMET, CIMSS, CIRA and other offices. The training is used to prepare the participants of PG activities, such as the Hazardous Weather Testbed's Spring Experiment and other locations listed above. A key component of the proving ground is two-way interaction, where researchers introduce new products and techniques to forecasters and other scientists. The forecasters and other users then provide feedback and ideas for improved or new products and how to best incorporate these into NOAA's integrated observing and analysis operations. This presentation will provide examples of GOES-R proxy products and forecaster evaluations from experiments at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Aviation Weather Center (AWC), and the Alaska Region.

Forecasting new product diffusion using both patent citation and web search traffic.

PubMed

Lee, Won Sang; Choi, Hyo Shin; Sohn, So Young

2018-01-01

Accurate demand forecasting for new technology products is a key factor in the success of a business. We propose a way to forecasting a new product's diffusion through technology diffusion and interest diffusion. Technology diffusion and interest diffusion are measured by the volume of patent citations and web search traffic, respectively. We apply the proposed method to forecast the sales of hybrid cars and industrial robots in the US market. The results show that that technology diffusion, as represented by patent citations, can explain long-term sales for hybrid cars and industrial robots. On the other hand, interest diffusion, as represented by web search traffic, can help to improve the predictability of market sales of hybrid cars in the short-term. However, interest diffusion is difficult to explain the sales of industrial robots due to the different market characteristics. Finding indicates our proposed model can relatively well explain the diffusion of consumer goods.

77 FR 15847 - Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy; Importation of Bovines and Bovine Products

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-16

...We are proposing to amend the regulations that govern the importation of animals and animal products to revise the conditions for the importation of live bovines and products derived from bovines with regard to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). We are proposing to base importation conditions on the inherent risk of BSE infectivity in specified commodities, as well as on the BSE risk status of the region from which the commodities originate. We are proposing to establish a system for classifying regions as to BSE risk that is consistent with the system employed by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), the international standard-setting organization for guidelines related to animal health. The conditions we are proposing for the importation of specified commodities are based on internationally accepted scientific literature and, except in a few instances, are consistent with guidelines set out in the OIE's Terrestrial Animal Health Code. We are also proposing to classify certain specified countries as to BSE risk and are proposing to remove BSE restrictions on the importation of cervids and camelids and products derived from such animals. We are proposing to make these amendments after conducting a thorough review of relevant scientific literature and a comprehensive evaluation of the issues and concluding that the proposed changes to the regulations would continue to guard against the introduction of BSE into the United States, while allowing the importation of additional animals and animal products into this country. In this document we are also affirming the position we took in removing the delay of applicability of certain provisions of the rule entitled ``Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy; Minimal-Risk Regions and Importation of Commodities,'' published in the Federal Register on January 4, 2005 (70 FR 460-553). The delay of applicability was removed in a final rule entitled ``Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy; Minimal-Risk Regions; Importation of Live Bovines and Products Derived from Bovines,'' published in the Federal Register on September 18, 2007 (72 FR 53314-53379).

Some Initiatives in a Business Forecasting Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chu, Singfat

2007-01-01

The paper reports some initiatives to freshen up the typical undergraduate business forecasting course. These include (1) students doing research and presentations on contemporary tools and industry practices such as neural networks and collaborative forecasting (2) insertion of Logistic Regression in the curriculum (3) productive use of applets…

Olive Actual "on Year" Yield Forecast Tool Based on the Tree Canopy Geometry Using UAS Imagery.

PubMed

Sola-Guirado, Rafael R; Castillo-Ruiz, Francisco J; Jiménez-Jiménez, Francisco; Blanco-Roldan, Gregorio L; Castro-Garcia, Sergio; Gil-Ribes, Jesus A

2017-07-30

Olive has a notable importance in countries of Mediterranean basin and its profitability depends on several factors such as actual yield, production cost or product price. Actual "on year" Yield (AY) is production (kg tree -1 ) in "on years", and this research attempts to relate it with geometrical parameters of the tree canopy. Regression equation to forecast AY based on manual canopy volume was determined based on data acquired from different orchard categories and cultivars during different harvesting seasons in southern Spain. Orthoimages were acquired with unmanned aerial systems (UAS) imagery calculating individual crown for relating to canopy volume and AY. Yield levels did not vary between orchard categories; however, it did between irrigated orchards (7000-17,000 kg ha -1 ) and rainfed ones (4000-7000 kg ha -1 ). After that, manual canopy volume was related with the individual crown area of trees that were calculated by orthoimages acquired with UAS imagery. Finally, AY was forecasted using both manual canopy volume and individual tree crown area as main factors for olive productivity. AY forecast only by using individual crown area made it possible to get a simple and cheap forecast tool for a wide range of olive orchards. Finally, the acquired information was introduced in a thematic map describing spatial AY variability obtained from orthoimage analysis that may be a powerful tool for farmers, insurance systems, market forecasts or to detect agronomical problems.

Prediction of Seasonal Climate-induced Variations in Global Food Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

2013-01-01

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are therefore exposed to variations in yields, production, and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of major food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We assessed the reliability of hindcasts (i.e., retrospective forecasts for the past) of crop yield loss relative to the previous year for two lead times. Pre-season yield predictions employ climatic forecasts and have lead times of approximately 3 to 5 months for providing information regarding variations in yields for the coming cropping season. Within-season yield predictions use climatic forecasts with lead times of 1 to 3 months. Pre-season predictions can be of value to national governments and commercial concerns, complemented by subsequent updates from within-season predictions. The latter incorporate information on the most recent climatic data for the upcoming period of reproductive growth. In addition to such predictions, hindcasts using observations from satellites were performed to demonstrate the upper limit of the reliability of crop forecasting.

Olive Actual “on Year” Yield Forecast Tool Based on the Tree Canopy Geometry Using UAS Imagery

PubMed Central

Sola-Guirado, Rafael R.; Castillo-Ruiz, Francisco J.; Jiménez-Jiménez, Francisco; Blanco-Roldan, Gregorio L.; Gil-Ribes, Jesus A.

2017-01-01

Olive has a notable importance in countries of Mediterranean basin and its profitability depends on several factors such as actual yield, production cost or product price. Actual “on year” Yield (AY) is production (kg tree−1) in “on years”, and this research attempts to relate it with geometrical parameters of the tree canopy. Regression equation to forecast AY based on manual canopy volume was determined based on data acquired from different orchard categories and cultivars during different harvesting seasons in southern Spain. Orthoimages were acquired with unmanned aerial systems (UAS) imagery calculating individual crown for relating to canopy volume and AY. Yield levels did not vary between orchard categories; however, it did between irrigated orchards (7000–17,000 kg ha−1) and rainfed ones (4000–7000 kg ha−1). After that, manual canopy volume was related with the individual crown area of trees that were calculated by orthoimages acquired with UAS imagery. Finally, AY was forecasted using both manual canopy volume and individual tree crown area as main factors for olive productivity. AY forecast only by using individual crown area made it possible to get a simple and cheap forecast tool for a wide range of olive orchards. Finally, the acquired information was introduced in a thematic map describing spatial AY variability obtained from orthoimage analysis that may be a powerful tool for farmers, insurance systems, market forecasts or to detect agronomical problems. PMID:28758945

Application and verification of ECMWF seasonal forecast for wind energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Žagar, Mark; Marić, Tomislav; Qvist, Martin; Gulstad, Line

2015-04-01

A good understanding of long-term annual energy production (AEP) is crucial when assessing the business case of investing in green energy like wind power. The art of wind-resource assessment has emerged into a scientific discipline on its own, which has advanced at high pace over the last decade. This has resulted in continuous improvement of the AEP accuracy and, therefore, increase in business case certainty. Harvesting the full potential output of a wind farm or a portfolio of wind farms depends heavily on optimizing operation and management strategy. The necessary information for short-term planning (up to 14 days) is provided by standard weather and power forecasting services, and the long-term plans are based on climatology. However, the wind-power industry is lacking quality information on intermediate scales of the expected variability in seasonal and intra-annual variations and their geographical distribution. The seasonal power forecast presented here is designed to bridge this gap. The seasonal power production forecast is based on the ECMWF seasonal weather forecast and the Vestas' high-resolution, mesoscale weather library. The seasonal weather forecast is enriched through a layer of statistical post-processing added to relate large-scale wind speed anomalies to mesoscale climatology. The resulting predicted energy production anomalies, thus, include mesoscale effects not captured by the global forecasting systems. The turbine power output is non-linearly related to the wind speed, which has important implications for the wind power forecast. In theory, the wind power is proportional to the cube of wind speed. However, due to the nature of turbine design, this exponent is close to 3 only at low wind speeds, becomes smaller as the wind speed increases, and above 11-13 m/s the power output remains constant, called the rated power. The non-linear relationship between wind speed and the power output generally increases sensitivity of the forecasted power to the wind speed anomalies. On the other hand, in some cases and areas where turbines operate close to, or above the rated power, the sensitivity of power forecast is reduced. Thus, the seasonal power forecasting system requires good knowledge of the changes in frequency of events with sufficient wind speeds to have acceptable skill. The scientific background for the Vestas seasonal power forecasting system is described and the relationship between predicted monthly wind speed anomalies and observed wind energy production are investigated for a number of operating wind farms in different climate zones. Current challenges will be discussed and some future research and development areas identified.

Improving the Transition of Earth Satellite Observations from Research to Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven J.; Lapenta, William M.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2004-01-01

There are significant gaps between the observations, models, and decision support tools that make use of new data. These challenges include: 1) Decreasing the time to incorporate new satellite data into operational forecast assimilation systems, 2) Blending in-situ and satellite observing systems to produce the most accurate and comprehensive data products and assessments, 3) Accelerating the transition from research to applications through national test beds, field campaigns, and pilot demonstrations, and 4) Developing the partnerships and organizational structures to effectively transition new technology into operations. At the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama, a NASA-NOAA-University collaboration has been developed to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth science observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. The SPoRT Center research focus is to improve forecasts through new observation capability and the regional prediction objectives of the US Weather Research Program dealing with 0-1 day forecast issues such as convective initiation and 24-hr quantitative precipitation forecasting. The near real-time availability of high-resolution experimental products of the atmosphere, land, and ocean from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Infrared Spectroradiometer (AIRS), and lightning mapping systems provide an opportunity for science and algorithm risk reduction, and for application assessment prior to planned observations from the next generation of operational low Earth orbiting and geostationary Earth orbiting satellites. This paper describes the process for the transition of experimental products into forecast operations, current products undergoing assessment by forecasters, and plans for the future. The SPoRT Web page is at (http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/sport).

Three ingredients for Improved global aftershock forecasts: Tectonic region, time-dependent catalog incompleteness, and inter-sequence variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Page, Morgan T.; Van Der Elst, Nicholas; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Felzer, Karen; Michael, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

Following a large earthquake, seismic hazard can be orders of magnitude higher than the long‐term average as a result of aftershock triggering. Because of this heightened hazard, emergency managers and the public demand rapid, authoritative, and reliable aftershock forecasts. In the past, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aftershock forecasts following large global earthquakes have been released on an ad hoc basis with inconsistent methods, and in some cases aftershock parameters adapted from California. To remedy this, the USGS is currently developing an automated aftershock product based on the Reasenberg and Jones (1989) method that will generate more accurate forecasts. To better capture spatial variations in aftershock productivity and decay, we estimate regional aftershock parameters for sequences within the García et al. (2012) tectonic regions. We find that regional variations for mean aftershock productivity reach almost a factor of 10. We also develop a method to account for the time‐dependent magnitude of completeness following large events in the catalog. In addition to estimating average sequence parameters within regions, we develop an inverse method to estimate the intersequence parameter variability. This allows for a more complete quantification of the forecast uncertainties and Bayesian updating of the forecast as sequence‐specific information becomes available.

Building and managing high performance, scalable, commodity mass storage systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lekashman, John

1998-01-01

The NAS Systems Division has recently embarked on a significant new way of handling the mass storage problem. One of the basic goals of this new development are to build systems at very large capacity and high performance, yet have the advantages of commodity products. The central design philosophy is to build storage systems the way the Internet was built. Competitive, survivable, expandable, and wide open. The thrust of this paper is to describe the motivation for this effort, what we mean by commodity mass storage, what the implications are for a facility that performs such an action, and where we think it will lead.

Using JPSS Retrievals to Implement a Multisensor, Synoptic, Layered Water Vapor Product for Forecasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, J. M.; Jones, A. S.; Kidder, S. Q.; Fuell, K.; LeRoy, A.; Bikos, D.; Szoke, E.

2015-12-01

Forecasters have been using the NOAA operational blended total precipitable water (TPW) product, developed by the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), since 2009. Blended TPW has a wide variety of uses related to heavy precipitation and flooding, such as measuring the amount of moisture in an atmospheric river originating in the tropics. But blended TPW conveys no information on the vertical distribution of moisture, which is relevant to a variety of forecast concerns. Vertical profile information is particularly lacking over the oceans for landfalling storms. A blended six-satellite, four-layer, layered water vapor product demonstrated by CIRA and the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) in allows forecasters to see the vertical distribution of water vapor in near real-time. National Weather Service (NWS) forecaster feedback indicated that this new, vertically-resolved view of water vapor has a substantial impact on forecasts. This product uses NOAA investments in polar orbiting satellite sounding retrievals from passive microwave radiances, in particular, the Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MIRS). The product currently utilizes data from the NOAA-18 and -19 spacecraft, Metop-A and -B, and the Defense Meteorological Program (DMSP) F18 spacecraft. The sounding instruments onboard the Suomi-NPP and JPSS spacecraft will be cornerstone instruments in the future evolution of this product. Applications of the product to heavy rain cases will be presented and compared to commonly used data such as radiosondes and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) water vapor channel imagery. Research is currently beginning to implement advective blending, where model winds are used to move the water vapor profiles to a common time. Interactions with the NOAA Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) centers including the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) and Weather Prediction Center (WPC) will be discussed.

The added value of stochastic spatial disaggregation for short-term rainfall forecasts currently available in Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagnon, Patrick; Rousseau, Alain N.; Charron, Dominique; Fortin, Vincent; Audet, René

2017-11-01

Several businesses and industries rely on rainfall forecasts to support their day-to-day operations. To deal with the uncertainty associated with rainfall forecast, some meteorological organisations have developed products, such as ensemble forecasts. However, due to the intensive computational requirements of ensemble forecasts, the spatial resolution remains coarse. For example, Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) data is freely available on a 1-degree grid (about 100 km), while those of the so-called High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) are available on a 2.5-km grid (about 40 times finer). Potential users are then left with the option of using either a high-resolution rainfall forecast without uncertainty estimation and/or an ensemble with a spectrum of plausible rainfall values, but at a coarser spatial scale. The objective of this study was to evaluate the added value of coupling the Gibbs Sampling Disaggregation Model (GSDM) with ECCC products to provide accurate, precise and consistent rainfall estimates at a fine spatial resolution (10-km) within a forecast framework (6-h). For 30, 6-h, rainfall events occurring within a 40,000-km2 area (Québec, Canada), results show that, using 100-km aggregated reference rainfall depths as input, statistics of the rainfall fields generated by GSDM were close to those of the 10-km reference field. However, in forecast mode, GSDM outcomes inherit of the ECCC forecast biases, resulting in a poor performance when GEPS data were used as input, mainly due to the inherent rainfall depth distribution of the latter product. Better performance was achieved when the Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS), available on a 10-km grid and aggregated at 100-km, was used as input to GSDM. Nevertheless, most of the analyzed ensemble forecasts were weakly consistent. Some areas of improvement are identified herein.

Assessing Applications of GPM and IMERG Passive Microwave Rain Rates in Modeling and Operational Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavodsky, B.; Le Roy, A.; Smith, M. R.; Case, J.

2016-12-01

In support of NASA's recently launched GPM `core' satellite, the NASA-SPoRT project is leveraging experience in research-to-operations transitions and training to provide feedback on the operational utility of GPM products. Thus far, SPoRT has focused on evaluating the Level 2 GPROF passive microwave and IMERG rain rate estimates. Formal evaluations with end-users have occurred, as well as internal evaluations of the datasets. One set of end users for these products is National Weather Service Forecast Offices (WFOs) and National Weather Service River Forecast Centers (RFCs), comprising forecasters and hydrologists. SPoRT has hosted a series of formal assessments to determine uses and utility of these datasets for NWS operations at specific offices. Forecasters primarily have used Level 2 swath rain rates to observe rainfall in otherwise data-void regions and to confirm model QPF for their nowcasting or short-term forecasting. Hydrologists have been evaluating both the Level 2 rain rates and the IMERG rain rates, including rain rate accumulations derived from IMERG; hydrologists have used these data to supplement gauge data for post-event analysis as well as for longer-term forecasting. Results from specific evaluations will be presented. Another evaluation of the GPM passive microwave rain rates has been in using the data within other products that are currently transitioned to end-users, rather than as stand-alone observations. For example, IMERG Early data is being used as a forcing mechanism in the NASA Land Information System (LIS) for real-time soil moisture product over eastern Africa. IMERG is providing valuable precipitation information to LIS in an otherwise data-void region. Results and caveats will briefly be discussed. A third application of GPM data is using the IMERG Late and Final products for model verification in remote regions where high-quality gridded precipitation fields are not readily available. These datasets can now be used to verify NWP model forecasts over Eastern Africa using the SPoRT-MET scripts verification package, a wrapper around the NCAR Model Evaluation Toolkit (MET) verification software.

Automated turbulence forecasts for aviation hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharman, R.; Frehlich, R.; Vandenberghe, F.

2010-09-01

An operational turbulence forecast system for commercial and aviation use is described that is based on an ensemble of turbulence diagnostics derived from standard NWP model outputs. In the U. S. this forecast product is named GTG (Graphical Turbulence Guidance) and has been described in detail in Sharman et al., WAF 2006. Since turbulence has many sources in the atmosphere, the ensemble approach of combining diagnostics has been shown to provide greater statistical accuracy than the use of a single diagnostic, or of a subgrid tke parameterization. GTG is sponsored by the FAA, and has undergone rigorous accuracy, safety, and usability evaluations. The GTG product is now hosted on NOAA's Aviation Data Service (ADDS), web site (http://aviationweather.gov/), for access by pilots, air traffic controllers, and dispatchers. During this talk the various turbulence diagnostics, their statistical properties, and their relative performance (based on comparisons to observations) will be presented. Importantly, the model output is ɛ1/3 (where ɛ is the eddy dissipation rate), so is aircraft independent. The diagnostics are individually and collectively calibrated so that their PDFs satisfy the expected log normal distribution of ɛ^1/3. Some of the diagnostics try to take into account the role of gravity waves and inertia-gravity waves in the turbulence generation process. Although the current GTG product is based on the RUC forecast model running over the CONUS, it is transitioning to a WRF based product, and in fact WRF-based versions are currently running operationally over Taiwan and has also been implemented for use by the French Navy in climatological studies. Yet another version has been developed which uses GFS model output to provide global turbulence forecasts. Thus the forecast product is available as a postprocessing program for WRF or other model output and provides 3D maps of turbulence likelihood of any region where NWP model data is available. Although the current GTG has been used mainly for large commercial aircraft, since the output is aircraft independent it could readily be scaled to smaller aircraft such as UAVs. Further, the ensemble technique allows the diagnostics to be used to form probabilistic forecasts, in a manner similar to ensemble NWP forecasts.

40 CFR 180.449 - Avermectin B1 and its delta-8,9-isomer; tolerances for residues.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...-isomer in or on the following commodities: Commodity Parts per million Almond, hulls 0.10 Apple 0.020 Apple, wet pomace 0.10 Avocado 0.020 Bean, dry, seed 0.01 Cattle, fat 0.03 Cattle, meat 0.02 Cattle..., undelinted seed 0.005 Food products in food handling establishments (other than those already covered by...

75 FR 34434 - Request To Amend an Existing Order Under Section 4(c) of the Commodity Exchange Act Permitting...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-17

...) pursuant to Section 4(c) of the Act, (a) to permit the clearing of coffee, sugar, and cocoa OTC swap..., ``a * * * commodity swap,'' which latter term includes swaps on agricultural products. While the...(c) of the Act, ICE Clear could not engage in the clearing of OTC swap contracts in cocoa, sugar and...

Constellation Commodities Studies Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dirschka, Eric

2011-01-01

Constellation program was NASA's long-term program for space exploration. The goal of the commodities studies was to solicit industry expertise in production, storage, and transportation required for future use and to improve efficiency and life cycle cost over legacy methods. Objectives were to consolidate KSC, CCAFS and other requirements; extract available industry expertise; identify commercial opportunities; and establish synergy with State of Florida partnerships. Study results are reviewed.

Oil and Gas Supply Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gass, S. I.

1982-05-01

The theoretical and applied state of the art of oil and gas supply models was discussed. The following areas were addressed: the realities of oil and gas supply, prediction of oil and gas production, problems in oil and gas modeling, resource appraisal procedures, forecasting field size and production, investment and production strategies, estimating cost and production schedules for undiscovered fields, production regulations, resource data, sensitivity analysis of forecasts, econometric analysis of resource depletion, oil and gas finding rates, and various models of oil and gas supply.

29 CFR 784.110 - Performing operations both on nonaquatic products and named aquatic products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... of the exemptions is applicable to the making of any commodities from ingredients only part of which... codfish cakes, clam chowder, dog food, crab cakes, or livestock food containing aquatic products is often...

Cardiac surgery productivity and throughput improvements.

PubMed

Lehtonen, Juha-Matti; Kujala, Jaakko; Kouri, Juhani; Hippeläinen, Mikko

2007-01-01

The high variability in cardiac surgery length--is one of the main challenges for staff managing productivity. This study aims to evaluate the impact of six interventions on open-heart surgery operating theatre productivity. A discrete operating theatre event simulation model with empirical operation time input data from 2603 patients is used to evaluate the effect that these process interventions have on the surgery output and overtime work. A linear regression model was used to get operation time forecasts for surgery scheduling while it also could be used to explain operation time. A forecasting model based on the linear regression of variables available before the surgery explains 46 per cent operating time variance. The main factors influencing operation length were type of operation, redoing the operation and the head surgeon. Reduction of changeover time between surgeries by inducing anaesthesia outside an operating theatre and by reducing slack time at the end of day after a second surgery have the strongest effects on surgery output and productivity. A more accurate operation time forecast did not have any effect on output, although improved operation time forecast did decrease overtime work. A reduction in the operation time itself is not studied in this article. However, the forecasting model can also be applied to discover which factors are most significant in explaining variation in the length of open-heart surgery. The challenge in scheduling two open-heart surgeries in one day can be partly resolved by increasing the length of the day, decreasing the time between two surgeries or by improving patient scheduling procedures so that two short surgeries can be paired. A linear regression model is created in the paper to increase the accuracy of operation time forecasting and to identify factors that have the most influence on operation time. A simulation model is used to analyse the impact of improved surgical length forecasting and five selected process interventions on productivity in cardiac surgery.

MAG4 versus alternative techniques for forecasting active region flare productivity.

PubMed

Falconer, David A; Moore, Ronald L; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F; Khazanov, Igor

2014-05-01

MAG4 is a technique of forecasting an active region's rate of production of major flares in the coming few days from a free magnetic energy proxy. We present a statistical method of measuring the difference in performance between MAG4 and comparable alternative techniques that forecast an active region's major-flare productivity from alternative observed aspects of the active region. We demonstrate the method by measuring the difference in performance between the "Present MAG4" technique and each of three alternative techniques, called "McIntosh Active-Region Class," "Total Magnetic Flux," and "Next MAG4." We do this by using (1) the MAG4 database of magnetograms and major flare histories of sunspot active regions, (2) the NOAA table of the major-flare productivity of each of 60 McIntosh active-region classes of sunspot active regions, and (3) five technique performance metrics (Heidke Skill Score, True Skill Score, Percent Correct, Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Rate) evaluated from 2000 random two-by-two contingency tables obtained from the databases. We find that (1) Present MAG4 far outperforms both McIntosh Active-Region Class and Total Magnetic Flux, (2) Next MAG4 significantly outperforms Present MAG4, (3) the performance of Next MAG4 is insensitive to the forward and backward temporal windows used, in the range of one to a few days, and (4) forecasting from the free-energy proxy in combination with either any broad category of McIntosh active-region classes or any Mount Wilson active-region class gives no significant performance improvement over forecasting from the free-energy proxy alone (Present MAG4). Quantitative comparison of performance of pairs of forecasting techniques Next MAG4 forecasts major flares more accurately than Present MAG4 Present MAG4 forecast outperforms McIntosh AR Class and total magnetic flux.

MAG4 versus alternative techniques for forecasting active region flare productivity

PubMed Central

Falconer, David A; Moore, Ronald L; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F; Khazanov, Igor

2014-01-01

MAG4 is a technique of forecasting an active region's rate of production of major flares in the coming few days from a free magnetic energy proxy. We present a statistical method of measuring the difference in performance between MAG4 and comparable alternative techniques that forecast an active region's major-flare productivity from alternative observed aspects of the active region. We demonstrate the method by measuring the difference in performance between the “Present MAG4” technique and each of three alternative techniques, called “McIntosh Active-Region Class,” “Total Magnetic Flux,” and “Next MAG4.” We do this by using (1) the MAG4 database of magnetograms and major flare histories of sunspot active regions, (2) the NOAA table of the major-flare productivity of each of 60 McIntosh active-region classes of sunspot active regions, and (3) five technique performance metrics (Heidke Skill Score, True Skill Score, Percent Correct, Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Rate) evaluated from 2000 random two-by-two contingency tables obtained from the databases. We find that (1) Present MAG4 far outperforms both McIntosh Active-Region Class and Total Magnetic Flux, (2) Next MAG4 significantly outperforms Present MAG4, (3) the performance of Next MAG4 is insensitive to the forward and backward temporal windows used, in the range of one to a few days, and (4) forecasting from the free-energy proxy in combination with either any broad category of McIntosh active-region classes or any Mount Wilson active-region class gives no significant performance improvement over forecasting from the free-energy proxy alone (Present MAG4). Key Points Quantitative comparison of performance of pairs of forecasting techniques Next MAG4 forecasts major flares more accurately than Present MAG4 Present MAG4 forecast outperforms McIntosh AR Class and total magnetic flux PMID:26213517

The NASA Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) Center: A Research to Operations Test Bed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary J.

2005-01-01

Over the last three years, NASA/MSFC scientists have embarked on an effort to transition unique NASA EOS data/products and research technology to selected NWSEOs in the southeast U.S. This activity, called the Short-term Prediction and - Research Transition (SPoRT) program, supports the NASA Science Mission Directorate and its Earth-Sun System Mission to develop a scientific understanding of the Earth System and its response to natural or human-induced changes that will enable improved prediction capability for climate, weather, and natural hazards. The overarching question related to weather prediction is "How well can weather forecasting duration and reliability be improved by new space-based observations, data assimilation, and modeling?" The transition activity has included the real-time delivery of MODIS data and products to several NWS Forecast Offices. Local NWS FOs have used the MODIS data to complement the coarse resolution GOES data for a number of applications. Specialized products have also been developed and made available to local and remote offices for their weather applications. Data from &e Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) network has been used in severe storm forecasts at several offices in the region. At the regional scale and forecast horizons from 0-1 day, the next generation of high-resolution mesoscale forecast and data assimilation models have been used to provide local offices with unique weather forecasts not otherwise available. The continued use of near red-time infusion of NASA science products into high-resolution mesoscale forecast and decision-making models can be expected to improve the model initialization as well as short-term forecasts. A current focus of SPoRT is to expand collaborations to include contributions from the assimilation of AMSR-E data in the ADASIARPS forecast system (OU), inclusion of MODIS SSTs and AIRS thermodynamic profiles in the WRF, and to extend the distribution of real-time MODIS and AMSR-E data and products to the Florida coastal WFOs. A SPoRT Test bed, together with input from other interagency and university partners, will provide a means and a process to effectively transition ESE observations and technology to NWS operations and decision makers at both the globdnational and regional scales. The transition of emerging experimental products into operations through the SPoRT infrastructure will allow NASA to foster and accelerate the progress of this Science Mission Directorate research strategy over the coming years.

Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

1991-12-01

Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

EIA Publications

2010-01-01

The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profiles on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Blakenship, Clay B.; Wick, Gary A.; Neiman, Paul J.

2013-01-01

This project is a collaborative activity between the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) to evaluate a SPoRT Advanced Infrared Sounding Radiometer (AIRS: Aumann et al. 2003) enhanced moisture analysis product. We test the impact of assimilating AIRS temperature and humidity profiles above clouds and in partly cloudy regions, using the three-dimensional variational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) system (Developmental Testbed Center 2012) to produce a new analysis. Forecasts of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized from the new analysis are compared to control forecasts without the additional AIRS data. We focus on some cases where atmospheric rivers caused heavy precipitation on the US West Coast. We verify the forecasts by comparison with dropsondes and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) Blended Total Precipitable Water product.

Product demand forecasts using wavelet kernel support vector machine and particle swarm optimization in manufacture system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qi

2010-03-01

Demand forecasts play a crucial role in supply chain management. The future demand for a certain product is the basis for the respective replenishment systems. Aiming at demand series with small samples, seasonal character, nonlinearity, randomicity and fuzziness, the existing support vector kernel does not approach the random curve of the sales time series in the space (quadratic continuous integral space). In this paper, we present a hybrid intelligent system combining the wavelet kernel support vector machine and particle swarm optimization for demand forecasting. The results of application in car sale series forecasting show that the forecasting approach based on the hybrid PSOWv-SVM model is effective and feasible, the comparison between the method proposed in this paper and other ones is also given, which proves that this method is, for the discussed example, better than hybrid PSOv-SVM and other traditional methods.

Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.

2017-12-01

Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.

7 CFR 52.56 - Purchase of commodity samples for review.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... AGRICULTURAL MARKETING ACT OF 1946 PROCESSED FRUITS AND VEGETABLES, PROCESSED PRODUCTS THEREOF, AND CERTAIN OTHER PROCESSED FOOD PRODUCTS 1 Regulations Governing Inspection and Certification Miscellaneous § 52.56...

Evaluation of Land Suitability and Potential Production of Gambir Uncaria gambir Roxb. L) at Salido Saribulan, Pesisir Selatan Regency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuni, Juniarti

2017-04-01

Gambir (Uncaria gambir Roxb. L) is a specific commodity of export in West Sumatra. Area of Gambir tree increases about 8 % per year in West Sumatera and until 1998 its production increased about 17% per year. However, in 1999 its area does not parallel with its production. In the last five years, the volume of export increases about 82.81%, while its value of export reaches US 2.5/kg. Therefore, this commodity has a strategic value for city's earnings. One of predicted causes is the use of unappropriated land. The aim of this research is to measure levels of land suitability in the buffer zone. TNKS (The National Park Kerinci-Seblat) in order to get the area, which is suitable for growing commodity of Gambir tree. To evaluate land suitability, quantitative model from FAO is used by combining environmental data, climate and condition of land (physical and chemical characteristic of the land). Estimation of Radiation Thermal Production Potential (RPP). Every data is measured (rating) individually and included in several mathematical formulas. After that, potential production of a land based on climate (Climate Production Potential) = CPP) is obtained quantitatively. By changing certain variant of this model program, it can predict the result of the plant in another area. By entering the real data of a land plant production, this model can predict the real plant production of land (Land Production Potential= LPP). Salido Saribulan area is included in class of land suitability S3f which is suitable for growing Gambir tree with a limitation factor of nutrient retention. Potential of actual gambir production at Salido Saribulan is 5 ton/ha, which is higher than actual gambir production.

Electric energy demand and supply prospects for California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, H. G. M.

1978-01-01

A recent history of electricity forecasting in California is given. Dealing with forecasts and regulatory uncertainty is discussed. Graphs are presented for: (1) Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and Pacific Gas and Electric present and projected reserve margins; (2) California electricity peak demand forecast; and (3) California electricity production.

Forecasting Fuels Support Equipment Requisitions

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

Blackstone , & Hoffmann, 1991). Problem Statement Which forecasting method is most appropriate to forecast fuels support equipment requisitions...over allocating financial resources. 14 Characteristics According to Fogarty, Blackstone , and Hoffman (1991), service, repair, replacement...Econometrica , 187-222. Fogarty, D., Blackstone , J., & Hoffmann, T. (1991). Production & Inventory Management (2d ed.). Cincinnati, OH: South-Western

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE PRODUCTS VIA NOAA WEATHER RADIO

Science.gov Websites

! Boating Safety Beach Hazards Rip Currents Hypothermia Hurricanes Thunderstorms Lightning Coastal Flooding Radio network provides voice broadcasts of local and coastal marine forecasts on a continuous cycle. The forecasts are produced by local National Weather Service Forecast Offices. Coastal stations also broadcast

COMMERCIAL SERVICES PROVIDING MARINE FORECASTS VIA SATELLITE

Science.gov Websites

Tsunamis 406 EPIRB's National Weather Service Marine Forecasts COMMERCIAL SERVICES PROVIDING MARINE forecast seas? And may present an even greater danger near shore or any shallow waters? COMMERCIAL SERVICES commercial product or service does not imply any endorsement by the National Weather Service as to function

Individual versus superensemble forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks in the United States.

PubMed

Yamana, Teresa K; Kandula, Sasikiran; Shaman, Jeffrey

2017-11-01

Recent research has produced a number of methods for forecasting seasonal influenza outbreaks. However, differences among the predicted outcomes of competing forecast methods can limit their use in decision-making. Here, we present a method for reconciling these differences using Bayesian model averaging. We generated retrospective forecasts of peak timing, peak incidence, and total incidence for seasonal influenza outbreaks in 48 states and 95 cities using 21 distinct forecast methods, and combined these individual forecasts to create weighted-average superensemble forecasts. We compared the relative performance of these individual and superensemble forecast methods by geographic location, timing of forecast, and influenza season. We find that, overall, the superensemble forecasts are more accurate than any individual forecast method and less prone to producing a poor forecast. Furthermore, we find that these advantages increase when the superensemble weights are stratified according to the characteristics of the forecast or geographic location. These findings indicate that different competing influenza prediction systems can be combined into a single more accurate forecast product for operational delivery in real time.

Individual versus superensemble forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks in the United States

PubMed Central

Kandula, Sasikiran; Shaman, Jeffrey

2017-01-01

Recent research has produced a number of methods for forecasting seasonal influenza outbreaks. However, differences among the predicted outcomes of competing forecast methods can limit their use in decision-making. Here, we present a method for reconciling these differences using Bayesian model averaging. We generated retrospective forecasts of peak timing, peak incidence, and total incidence for seasonal influenza outbreaks in 48 states and 95 cities using 21 distinct forecast methods, and combined these individual forecasts to create weighted-average superensemble forecasts. We compared the relative performance of these individual and superensemble forecast methods by geographic location, timing of forecast, and influenza season. We find that, overall, the superensemble forecasts are more accurate than any individual forecast method and less prone to producing a poor forecast. Furthermore, we find that these advantages increase when the superensemble weights are stratified according to the characteristics of the forecast or geographic location. These findings indicate that different competing influenza prediction systems can be combined into a single more accurate forecast product for operational delivery in real time. PMID:29107987

Verification of different forecasts of Hungarian Meteorological Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feher, B.

2009-09-01

In this paper I show the results of the forecasts made by the Hungarian Meteorological Service. I focus on the general short- and medium-range forecasts, which contains cloudiness, precipitation, wind speed and temperature for six regions of Hungary. I would like to show the results of some special forecasts as well, such as precipitation predictions which are made for the catchment area of Danube and Tisza rivers, and daily mean temperature predictions used by Hungarian energy companies. The product received by the user is made by the general forecaster, but these predictions are based on the ALADIN and ECMWF outputs. Because of these, the product of the forecaster and the models were also verified. Method like this is able to show us, which weather elements are more difficult to forecast or which regions have higher errors. During the verification procedure the basic errors (mean error, mean absolute error) are calculated. Precipitation amount is classified into five categories, and scores like POD, TS, PC,…etc. were defined by contingency table determined by these categories. The procedure runs fully automatically, all the things forecasters have to do is to print the daily result each morning. Beside the daily result, verification is also made for longer periods like week, month or year. Analyzing the results of longer periods we can say that the best predictions are made for the first few days, and precipitation forecasts are less good for mountainous areas, even, the scores of the forecasters sometimes are higher than the errors of the models. Since forecaster receive results next day, it can helps him/her to reduce mistakes and learn the weakness of the models. This paper contains the verification scores, their trends, the method by which these scores are calculated, and some case studies on worse forecasts.

Current and potential trade in horticultural products irradiated for phytosanitary purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bustos-Griffin, Emilia; Hallman, Guy J.; Griffin, Robert L.

2012-08-01

The current status of trade in horticultural products irradiated for phytosanitary purposes is examined, including trends, strengths and weaknesses. A strategy is proposed to take advantage of the best future opportunities for increasing trade in irradiated horticultural products by identifying best possibilities for expanding both the number and volume of commodities for irradiation and then applying appropriate business criteria in a general analysis of the commodities, commercial scenarios, and geographic regions where the greatest potential exists for expansion. The results show that fresh fruits such as mango, papaya, citrus, grapes, and vegetables such as tomatoes, onions, asparagus, garlic, and peppers from Asia and the Americas show the greatest potential. Substantial opportunities for additional growth exist, especially as regulatory conditions become more favorable.

Operational use of VIIRS Multispectral Imagery and NUCAPS Soundings in Short-term Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molthan, A.; Fuell, K. K.; Berndt, E.; Schultz, L. A.

2016-12-01

The NASA/SPoRT Program supports the NOAA/JPSS program through the transition of S-NPP VIIRS and CrIS/ATMS products to prepare users for the upcoming JPSS-1/-2 missions. Several multispectral (i.e. RGB) imagery products can be created from VIIRS based on internationally-accepted recipes developed by EUMETSAT. Initial transition of a Nighttime Microphysics RGB to operations revealed improved distinction between low clouds and fog compared with legacy satellite imagery, and hence, improvement in short-term aviation and public forecasts. An increased number of S-NPP passes at high latitude combined with other instruments led to a series of "microphysical" RGBs to be introduced to NWS forecasters in Alaska at both local weather offices as well as regional aviation centers. Forecasters in Alaska also applied VIIRS microphysical RGBs to identify small scale features such as valley/coastal fog, volcanic ash, and convective precipitation. Further use of a "Dust" RGB in the U.S. southwest led to changes in NWS forecast products due to improvements in detection and monitoring of dust aloft. As multispectral imagery has gained operational acceptance, additional work has begun to develop quantitative products to assist users with their interpretation of RGB imagery. For example, National Center forecasters often use an "Air Mass" RGB to differentiate between possible stratospheric /tropospheric interactions, moist tropical air masses, and cool, continental/maritime air masses. Research was done to demonstrate how the NUCAPS CrIS/ATMS infrared retrieved temperature, moisture, and ozone profiles can aid Air Mass RGB imagery interpretation as well as how these quantitative values are important for anticipating tropical to extratropical transition events. In addition, an enhanced stratospheric depth product was developed to identify the dynamic tropopause from the NUCAPS retrieved ozone profiles to aid identification of stratospheric air influence. Forecasters from National Centers evaluated the NUCAPS profiles as a tool for anticipating extratropical transition during the latter half of the 2016 hurricane season. Examples of multispectral and sounding product impacts in near-realtime operations from VIIRS and CrIS/ATMS are presented here.

29 CFR 784.14 - “Goods.”

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... FISHING AND OPERATIONS ON AQUATIC PRODUCTS General Some Basic Definitions § 784.14 “Goods.” The definition... marine equipment), wares, products, commodities, merchandise, or articles or subjects of commerce of any...

29 CFR 784.14 - “Goods.”

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... FISHING AND OPERATIONS ON AQUATIC PRODUCTS General Some Basic Definitions § 784.14 “Goods.” The definition... marine equipment), wares, products, commodities, merchandise, or articles or subjects of commerce of any...

78 FR 72979 - Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy; Importation of Bovines and Bovine Products

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-04

...We are amending the regulations that govern the importation of animals and animal products to revise the conditions for the importation of live bovines and products derived from bovines with regard to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). We are basing importation conditions on the inherent risk of BSE infectivity in specified commodities, as well as on the BSE risk status of the region in which the commodities originate. We are establishing a system for classifying regions as to BSE risk that is consistent with the system employed by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), the international standard-setting organization for guidelines related to animal health. The conditions we are adopting for the importation of specified commodities are based on internationally accepted scientific literature, and are, in general, consistent with guidelines set out in the OIE's Terrestrial Animal Health Code. We are also classifying certain specified countries as to BSE risk and are removing BSE restrictions on the importation of cervids and camelids and products derived from such animals. We are making these amendments after conducting a thorough review of relevant scientific literature and a comprehensive evaluation of the issues and concluding that the changes to the regulations will continue to guard against the introduction of BSE into the United States, while allowing the importation of additional animals and animal products into this country.

10 CFR 32.11 - Introduction of byproduct material in exempt concentrations into products or materials, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

..., initial concentration of the byproduct material in the product or material, control methods to assure that... is not likely to be incorporated in any food, beverage, cosmetic, drug or other commodity or product...

10 CFR 32.11 - Introduction of byproduct material in exempt concentrations into products or materials, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

..., initial concentration of the byproduct material in the product or material, control methods to assure that... is not likely to be incorporated in any food, beverage, cosmetic, drug or other commodity or product...

10 CFR 32.11 - Introduction of byproduct material in exempt concentrations into products or materials, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

..., initial concentration of the byproduct material in the product or material, control methods to assure that... is not likely to be incorporated in any food, beverage, cosmetic, drug or other commodity or product...

Effects of 4D-Var data assimilation using remote sensing precipitation products in a WRF over the complex Heihe River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Xiaoduo; Li, Xin; Cheng, Guodong

2017-04-01

Traditionally, ground-based, in situ observations, remote sensing, and regional climate modeling, individually, cannot provide the high-quality precipitation data required for hydrological prediction, especially over complex terrain. Data assimilation techniques are often used to assimilate ground observations and remote sensing products into models for dynamic downscaling. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to assimilate two satellite precipitation products (TRMM 3B42 and FY-2D) using the 4D-Var data assimilation method. The results show that the assimilation of remote sensing precipitation products can improve the initial WRF fields of humidity and temperature, thereby improving precipitation forecasting and decreasing the spin-up time. Hence, assimilating TRMM and FY-2D remote sensing precipitation products using WRF 4D-Var can be viewed as a positive step toward improving the accuracy and lead time of numerical weather prediction models, particularly for short-term weather forecasting. Future work is proposed to assimilate a suite of remote sensing data, e.g., the combination of precipitation and soil moisture data, into a WRF model to improve 7-8 day forecasts of precipitation and other atmospheric variables.

Could Crop Height Affect the Wind Resource at Agriculturally Productive Wind Farm Sites?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanderwende, Brian; Lundquist, Julie K.

2016-03-01

The collocation of cropland and wind turbines in the US Midwest region introduces complex meteorological interactions that could influence both agriculture and wind-power production. Crop management practices may affect the wind resource through alterations of land-surface properties. We use the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to estimate the impact of crop height variations on the wind resource in the presence of a large turbine array. A hypothetical wind farm consisting of 121 1.8-MW turbines is represented using the WRF model wind-farm parametrization. We represent the impact of selecting soybeans rather than maize by altering the aerodynamic roughness length in a region approximately 65 times larger than that occupied by the turbine array. Roughness lengths of 0.1 and 0.25 m represent the mature soy crop and a mature maize crop, respectively. In all but the most stable atmospheric conditions, statistically significant hub-height wind-speed increases and rotor-layer wind-shear reductions result from switching from maize to soybeans. Based on simulations for the entire month of August 2013, wind-farm energy output increases by 14 %, which would yield a significant monetary gain. Further investigation is required to determine the optimal size, shape, and crop height of the roughness modification to maximize the economic benefit and minimize the cost of such crop-management practices. These considerations must be balanced by other influences on crop choice such as soil requirements and commodity prices.

Could crop height affect the wind resource at agriculturally productive wind farm sites?

DOE PAGES

Vanderwende, Brian; Lundquist, Julie K.

2015-11-07

The collocation of cropland and wind turbines in the US Midwest region introduces complex meteorological interactions that could influence both agriculture and wind-power production. Crop management practices may affect the wind resource through alterations of land-surface properties. We use the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to estimate the impact of crop height variations on the wind resource in the presence of a large turbine array. A hypothetical wind farm consisting of 121 1.8-MW turbines is represented using the WRF model wind-farm parametrization. We represent the impact of selecting soybeans rather than maize by altering the aerodynamic roughness length inmore » a region approximately 65 times larger than that occupied by the turbine array. Roughness lengths of 0.1 and 0.25 m represent the mature soy crop and a mature maize crop, respectively. In all but the most stable atmospheric conditions, statistically significant hub-height wind-speed increases and rotor-layer wind-shear reductions result from switching from maize to soybeans. Based on simulations for the entire month of August 2013, wind-farm energy output increases by 14 %, which would yield a significant monetary gain. Further investigation is required to determine the optimal size, shape, and crop height of the roughness modification to maximize the economic benefit and minimize the cost of such crop-management practices. As a result, these considerations must be balanced by other influences on crop choice such as soil requirements and commodity prices.« less

Could crop height affect the wind resource at agriculturally productive wind farm sites?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vanderwende, Brian; Lundquist, Julie K.

The collocation of cropland and wind turbines in the US Midwest region introduces complex meteorological interactions that could influence both agriculture and wind-power production. Crop management practices may affect the wind resource through alterations of land-surface properties. We use the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to estimate the impact of crop height variations on the wind resource in the presence of a large turbine array. A hypothetical wind farm consisting of 121 1.8-MW turbines is represented using the WRF model wind-farm parametrization. We represent the impact of selecting soybeans rather than maize by altering the aerodynamic roughness length inmore » a region approximately 65 times larger than that occupied by the turbine array. Roughness lengths of 0.1 and 0.25 m represent the mature soy crop and a mature maize crop, respectively. In all but the most stable atmospheric conditions, statistically significant hub-height wind-speed increases and rotor-layer wind-shear reductions result from switching from maize to soybeans. Based on simulations for the entire month of August 2013, wind-farm energy output increases by 14 %, which would yield a significant monetary gain. Further investigation is required to determine the optimal size, shape, and crop height of the roughness modification to maximize the economic benefit and minimize the cost of such crop-management practices. As a result, these considerations must be balanced by other influences on crop choice such as soil requirements and commodity prices.« less

Applications products of aviation forecast models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garthner, John P.

1988-01-01

A service called the Optimum Path Aircraft Routing System (OPARS) supplies products based on output data from the Naval Oceanographic Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), a model run on a Cyber-205 computer. Temperatures and winds are extracted from the surface to 100 mb, approximately 55,000 ft. Forecast winds are available in six-hour time steps.

Climatic controls of aboveground net primary production in semi-arid grasslands along a latitudinal gradient portend low sensitivity to warming

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Although climate models forecast warmer temperatures with a high degree of certainty, precipitation is the primary driver of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in most grasslands. In contrast, variations in temperature seldom are related to patterns of ANPP. Thus forecasting responses to wa...

7 CFR 1280.129 - Wool products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE LAMB PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND INFORMATION ORDER Lamb Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1280.129 Wool products. Wool..., excluding pelts. Lamb Promotion, Research, and Information Board ...

17 CFR 240.6a-4 - Notice of registration under Section 6(g) of the Act, amendment to such notice, and supplemental...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... this section is available continuously on an Internet web site controlled by a Security Futures Product... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Notice of registration under... registered under Section 6(g) of the Act. 240.6a-4 Section 240.6a-4 Commodity and Securities Exchanges...

17 CFR 240.6a-4 - Notice of registration under Section 6(g) of the Act, amendment to such notice, and supplemental...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... this section is available continuously on an Internet web site controlled by a Security Futures Product... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Notice of registration under... registered under Section 6(g) of the Act. 240.6a-4 Section 240.6a-4 Commodity and Securities Exchanges...

A game theory model for stabilizing price of chili: A case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wardayanti, Ari; Aviv, Afgan Suffan; Sutopo, Wahyudi; Hisjam, Muh.

2017-11-01

Chili is one of the important agricultural commodity in Indonesia because of its widely consumption by the Indonesian. Chili becomes one of the commodities that experience price fluctuations and important cause of yearly inflation in Indonesia. The unstable price of chili is affected by the scarcity of the commodity in some months and the difference of the harvest season. This study proposes a model to solve the problem by considering the substitution of fresh chilies with dried chili. We propose the cooperative of chili's farmer as entities that process fresh chili into dry ones. The existence of substitution products is expected to maintain the price stability chili. This research was conducted by taking a case study on chili commodity markets in Surakarta which consists of 19 traditional markets. This study aims to create a price stabilization scheme with product substitution using a game theory model. There are 4 strategies proposed in game theory model to describe the relationship between producers and consumers. In this case, the producers are the farmers and the consumers are the trade market. A mixed strategy of was chosen to determine the optimal value among 4 strategies. From the calculation results obtained optimal value when doing a mixed strategy of IDR 201,188,829,000.

[Assessment of the sensitizing potency of cosmetic ingredients and commodities. How will the ingredients of cosmetics and commodities be tested in Europe today and tomorrow?].

PubMed

Peiser, M; Platzek, T; Luch, A

2012-03-01

Cosmetics and certain commodities are applied or used by consumers directly on the skin. Creams may remain on the skin for longer periods, hair is dyed multiple times per year, nickel ions can be released from studs and piercings in areas of skin damage or migrate from toy materials into the skin of children. Accordingly, using or handling such products always entails a risk for developing a contact allergy. Moreover, daily usage and repeated contacts to certain cosmetics and commodities might lead to repeated elicitation of contact eczema in people already sensitized against allergenic ingredients. Unfortunately, contact allergy is not curable. For the assessment of the allergenic potential of chemicals, only testing based on animal experiments was available in the past. In 2003, the 7(th) amendment of the Cosmetics Directive 76/768/EWG laid down a ban on animal testing of cosmetic ingredients and from 2013 a general marketing ban of such products as well. Therefore, the development and validation of non-animal methods for assessing the toxicological endpoint sensitization/allergenic potency of chemicals is a major task for the years ahead and remains equally a challenge for industry and regulatory agencies.

Evaluation of the wind farm parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting model (version 3.8.1) with meteorological and turbine power data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Joseph C. Y.; Lundquist, Julie K.

2017-11-01

Forecasts of wind-power production are necessary to facilitate the integration of wind energy into power grids, and these forecasts should incorporate the impact of wind-turbine wakes. This paper focuses on a case study of four diurnal cycles with significant power production, and assesses the skill of the wind farm parameterization (WFP) distributed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.8.1, as well as its sensitivity to model configuration. After validating the simulated ambient flow with observations, we quantify the value of the WFP as it accounts for wake impacts on power production of downwind turbines. We also illustrate with statistical significance that a vertical grid with approximately 12 m vertical resolution is necessary for reproducing the observed power production. Further, the WFP overestimates wake effects and hence underestimates downwind power production during high wind speed, highly stable, and low turbulence conditions. We also find the WFP performance is independent of the number of wind turbines per model grid cell and the upwind-downwind position of turbines. Rather, the ability of the WFP to predict power production is most dependent on the skill of the WRF model in simulating the ambient wind speed.

Evaluation of the wind farm parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting model (version 3.8.1) with meteorological and turbine power data

DOE PAGES

Lee, Joseph C. Y.; Lundquist, Julie K.

2017-11-23

Forecasts of wind-power production are necessary to facilitate the integration of wind energy into power grids, and these forecasts should incorporate the impact of wind-turbine wakes. Our paper focuses on a case study of four diurnal cycles with significant power production, and assesses the skill of the wind farm parameterization (WFP) distributed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.8.1, as well as its sensitivity to model configuration. After validating the simulated ambient flow with observations, we quantify the value of the WFP as it accounts for wake impacts on power production of downwind turbines. We also illustratemore » with statistical significance that a vertical grid with approximately 12 m vertical resolution is necessary for reproducing the observed power production. Further, the WFP overestimates wake effects and hence underestimates downwind power production during high wind speed, highly stable, and low turbulence conditions. We also find the WFP performance is independent of the number of wind turbines per model grid cell and the upwind–downwind position of turbines. Rather, the ability of the WFP to predict power production is most dependent on the skill of the WRF model in simulating the ambient wind speed.« less

Evaluation of the wind farm parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting model (version 3.8.1) with meteorological and turbine power data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Joseph C. Y.; Lundquist, Julie K.

Forecasts of wind-power production are necessary to facilitate the integration of wind energy into power grids, and these forecasts should incorporate the impact of wind-turbine wakes. Our paper focuses on a case study of four diurnal cycles with significant power production, and assesses the skill of the wind farm parameterization (WFP) distributed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.8.1, as well as its sensitivity to model configuration. After validating the simulated ambient flow with observations, we quantify the value of the WFP as it accounts for wake impacts on power production of downwind turbines. We also illustratemore » with statistical significance that a vertical grid with approximately 12 m vertical resolution is necessary for reproducing the observed power production. Further, the WFP overestimates wake effects and hence underestimates downwind power production during high wind speed, highly stable, and low turbulence conditions. We also find the WFP performance is independent of the number of wind turbines per model grid cell and the upwind–downwind position of turbines. Rather, the ability of the WFP to predict power production is most dependent on the skill of the WRF model in simulating the ambient wind speed.« less

Virtual Water Trade: Revisiting the Assessments to Incorporate Regional Water Stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perveen, S.; Puma, M. J.; Troy, T. J.; Browne, M.; Ghosh, M.

2011-12-01

Virtual water (VW) refers to the volume of freshwater embedded in the production and shipment of a commodity, which can include agricultural or industrial products, and the trade of commodities can then be viewed as the trade of one region's water resources to another. The premise behind this trade is that countries with a comparative water advantage may choose to export crops, and countries with scarce water resources may focus economic activity on non-water intensive sectors. However, this assumption is not always true given food self-sufficiency policies; water scarce regions often choose to unsustainably mine aquifers for irrigation. Recent studies have shown no correlation between dependency on VW imports and water scarcity for nations, suggesting that politico-economic considerations rather than resource scarcity considerations may dominate the current VW dynamics. Existing VW computations do not take into account water-scarcity value or the full-cost pricing of commodities. This study aims to fill in this gap by focusing on three countries - the United States, India, and Japan - and their production, imports and exports of crop, livestock and industrial commodities. These countries offer three different perspectives on virtual water, with Japan as a net importer of agriculture virtual water and a major industrial nation. The United States, on the other hand, exports significant quantities of grain. India is a developing country with a strong focus on food self-sufficiency. We first quantify the amount of water used in the production of each commodity and then examine the virtual water trade balance for each country, examining the tradeoffs each country has made between agriculture and industrial water use; given that water resources are finite. To examine the interplay between virtual water trade and water scarcity, we focus on two sub-regions, the Ogallala Aquifer in the US and the Punjab region in India, both of which have significant agricultural economies and are knowingly depleting their groundwater resources. We estimate the direct and indirect cost of water in each region and evaluate the economic trade-offs these regions are making.

Future Weather Forecasting in the Year 2020-Investing in Technology Today: Improving Weather and Environmental Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anthes, Richard; Schoeberl, Mark

2000-01-01

Fast-forward twenty years to the nightly simultaneous TV/webcast. Accurate 8-14 day regional forecasts will be available as will be a whole host of linked products including economic impact, travel, energy usage, etc. On-demand, personalized street-level forecasts will be downloaded into your PDA. Your home system will automatically update the products of interest to you (e.g. severe storm forecasts, hurricane predictions, etc). Short and long range climate forecasts will be used by your "Quicken 2020" to make suggest changes in your "futures" investment portfolio. Through a lively and informative multi-media presentation, leading Space-Earth Science Researchers and Technologists will share their vision for the year 2020, offering a possible futuristic forecast enabled through the application of new technologies under development today. Copies of the 'broadcast' will be available on Beta Tape for your own future use. If sufficient interest exists, the program may also be made available for broadcasters wishing to do stand-ups with roll-ins from the San Francisco meeting for their viewers back home.

Generic radiation quarantine treatments: the next steps.

PubMed

Follett, Peter A

2009-08-01

In 2006, U.S. Department of Agriculture-Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service published a landmark rule providing generic radiation quarantine treatments. The rule approved radiation doses of 150 Gy for any tephritid fruit fly and 400 Gy for all other insects except the pupa and adult stages of Lepidoptera. The generic radiation treatments apply to all fresh horticultural commodities. Therefore, if a pest risk assessment demonstrates that no pupae or adult Lepidoptera are associated with a commodity, export approval can be forthcoming with no further research. Generic treatments are the culmination of decades of research but not an end point. Future research on quarantine and phytosanitary uses of radiation should focus on 1) development of specific doses for quarantine Lepidoptera not covered by the generic treatments, 2) reduction of dose levels for specific pests and commodities to shorten treatment time and minimize any deleterious effects of radiation treatment on commodity quality, 3) development of generic doses below 400 Gy for important groups of quarantine arthropods other than fruit flies, and 4) development of information on commodity tolerance and development of value-added irradiated fresh products that use generic radiation treatments. Generic treatments will facilitate safe trade between countries that have approved phytosanitary uses of radiation for fresh agricultural commodities.

Application of Remote Sensors in Mapping Rice Area and Forecasting Its Production: A Review

PubMed Central

Mosleh, Mostafa K.; Hassan, Quazi K.; Chowdhury, Ehsan H.

2015-01-01

Rice is one of the staple foods for more than three billion people worldwide. Rice paddies accounted for approximately 11.5% of the World's arable land area during 2012. Rice provided ∼19% of the global dietary energy in recent times and its annual average consumption per capita was ∼65 kg during 2010–2011. Therefore, rice area mapping and forecasting its production is important for food security, where demands often exceed production due to an ever increasing population. Timely and accurate estimation of rice areas and forecasting its production can provide invaluable information for governments, planners, and decision makers in formulating policies in regard to import/export in the event of shortfall and/or surplus. The aim of this paper was to review the applicability of the remote sensing-based imagery for rice area mapping and forecasting its production. Recent advances on the resolutions (i.e., spectral, spatial, radiometric, and temporal) and availability of remote sensing imagery have allowed us timely collection of information on the growth and development stages of the rice crop. For elaborative understanding of the application of remote sensing sensors, following issues were described: the rice area mapping and forecasting its production using optical and microwave imagery, synergy between remote sensing-based methods and other developments, and their implications as an operational one. The overview of the studies to date indicated that remote sensing-based methods using optical and microwave imagery found to be encouraging. However, there were having some limitations, such as: (i) optical remote sensing imagery had relatively low spatial resolution led to inaccurate estimation of rice areas; and (ii) radar imagery would suffer from speckles, which potentially would degrade the quality of the images; and also the brightness of the backscatters were sensitive to the interacting surface. In addition, most of the methods used in forecasting rice yield were empirical in nature, so thus it would require further calibration and validation prior to implement over other geographical locations. PMID:25569753

Application of remote sensors in mapping rice area and forecasting its production: a review.

PubMed

Mosleh, Mostafa K; Hassan, Quazi K; Chowdhury, Ehsan H

2015-01-05

Rice is one of the staple foods for more than three billion people worldwide. Rice paddies accounted for approximately 11.5% of the World's arable land area during 2012. Rice provided ~19% of the global dietary energy in recent times and its annual average consumption per capita was ~65 kg during 2010-2011. Therefore, rice area mapping and forecasting its production is important for food security, where demands often exceed production due to an ever increasing population. Timely and accurate estimation of rice areas and forecasting its production can provide invaluable information for governments, planners, and decision makers in formulating policies in regard to import/export in the event of shortfall and/or surplus. The aim of this paper was to review the applicability of the remote sensing-based imagery for rice area mapping and forecasting its production. Recent advances on the resolutions (i.e., spectral, spatial, radiometric, and temporal) and availability of remote sensing imagery have allowed us timely collection of information on the growth and development stages of the rice crop. For elaborative understanding of the application of remote sensing sensors, following issues were described: the rice area mapping and forecasting its production using optical and microwave imagery, synergy between remote sensing-based methods and other developments, and their implications as an operational one. The overview of the studies to date indicated that remote sensing-based methods using optical and microwave imagery found to be encouraging. However, there were having some limitations, such as: (i) optical remote sensing imagery had relatively low spatial resolution led to inaccurate estimation of rice areas; and (ii) radar imagery would suffer from speckles, which potentially would degrade the quality of the images; and also the brightness of the backscatters were sensitive to the interacting surface. In addition, most of the methods used in forecasting rice yield were empirical in nature, so thus it would require further calibration and validation prior to implement over other geographical locations.

7 CFR 1220.127 - Soybean products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 10 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Soybean products. 1220.127 Section 1220.127... AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SOYBEAN PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND CONSUMER INFORMATION Soybean Promotion and Research Order Definitions § 1220.127 Soybean products. The term...

7 CFR 1424.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

..., Firearms, and Explosives of the United States Department of Justice. Base production means a biodiesel producer's current FY's biodiesel production from eligible commodities that is not an increase over biodiesel production in the previous FY to date. Biodiesel means a mono alkyl ester manufactured in the...

7 CFR 1424.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

..., Firearms, and Explosives of the United States Department of Justice. Base production means a biodiesel producer's current FY's biodiesel production from eligible commodities that is not an increase over biodiesel production in the previous FY to date. Biodiesel means a mono alkyl ester manufactured in the...

7 CFR 1424.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., Firearms, and Explosives of the United States Department of Justice. Base production means a biodiesel producer's current FY's biodiesel production from eligible commodities that is not an increase over biodiesel production in the previous FY to date. Biodiesel means a mono alkyl ester manufactured in the...

7 CFR 1424.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

..., Firearms, and Explosives of the United States Department of Justice. Base production means a biodiesel producer's current FY's biodiesel production from eligible commodities that is not an increase over biodiesel production in the previous FY to date. Biodiesel means a mono alkyl ester manufactured in the...

7 CFR 1424.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

..., Firearms, and Explosives of the United States Department of Justice. Base production means a biodiesel producer's current FY's biodiesel production from eligible commodities that is not an increase over biodiesel production in the previous FY to date. Biodiesel means a mono alkyl ester manufactured in the...

7 CFR 1280.112 - Lamb products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Lamb products. 1280.112 Section 1280.112 Agriculture... AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE LAMB PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND INFORMATION ORDER Lamb Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1280.112 Lamb products. Lamb...

A Revised Marxist Political Economy of National Education Markets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marginson, Simon

2004-01-01

This article synthesises the social and economic dynamics of both non-market and market production in national education systems, drawing primarily on Marx's analysis of the commodity and Hirsch on positional competition. Market production has six principal aspects: a defined field of production, protocols governing entry/exit, the production of…

Compilation of geospatial data for the mineral industries and related infrastructure of Latin America and the Caribbean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baker, Michael S.; Buteyn, Spencer D.; Freeman, Philip A.; Trippi, Michael H.; Trimmer III, Loyd M.

2017-07-31

This report describes the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) ongoing commitment to its mission of understanding the nature and distribution of global mineral commodity supply chains by updating and publishing the georeferenced locations of mineral commodity production and processing facilities, mineral exploration and development sites, and mineral commodity exporting ports in Latin America and the Caribbean. The report includes an overview of data sources and an explanation of the geospatial PDF map format.The geodatabase and geospatial data layers described in this report create a new geographic information product in the form of a geospatial portable document format (PDF) map. The geodatabase contains additional data layers from USGS, foreign governmental, and open-source sources as follows: (1) coal occurrence areas, (2) electric power generating facilities, (3) electric power transmission lines, (4) hydrocarbon resource cumulative production data, (5) liquefied natural gas terminals, (6) oil and gas concession leasing areas, (7) oil and gas field center points, (8) oil and gas pipelines, (9) USGS petroleum provinces, (10) railroads, (11) recoverable proven plus probable hydrocarbon resources, (12) major cities, (13) major rivers, and (14) undiscovered porphyry copper tracts.

Evaluation of NASA SPoRT's Pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper Products in the 2011 Spring Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stano, Geoffrey T.; Carcione, Brian; Siewert, Christopher; Kuhlman, Kristin M.

2012-01-01

NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program is a contributing partner with the GOES-R Proving Ground (PG) preparing forecasters to understand and utilize the unique products that will be available in the GOES-R era. This presentation emphasizes SPoRT s actions to prepare the end user community for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). This preparation is a collaborative effort with SPoRT's National Weather Service partners, the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), and the Hazardous Weather Testbed s Spring Program. SPoRT continues to use its effective paradigm of matching capabilities to forecast problems through collaborations with our end users and working with the developers at NSSL to create effective evaluations and visualizations. Furthermore, SPoRT continues to develop software plug-ins so that these products will be available to forecasters in their own decision support system, AWIPS and eventually AWIPS II. In 2009, the SPoRT program developed the original pseudo geostationary lightning mapper (PGLM) flash extent product to demonstrate what forecasters may see with GLM. The PGLM replaced the previous GLM product and serves as a stepping-stone until the AWG s official GLM proxy is ready. The PGLM algorithm is simple and can be applied to any ground-based total lightning network. For 2011, the PGLM used observations from four ground-based networks (North Alabama, Kennedy Space Center, Oklahoma, and Washington D.C.). While the PGLM is not a true proxy product, it is intended as a tool to train forecasters about total lightning as well as foster discussions on product visualizations and incorporating GLM-resolution data into forecast operations. The PGLM has been used in 2010 and 2011 and is likely to remain the primary lightning training tool for the GOES-R program for the near future. This presentation will emphasize the feedback received during the 2011 Spring Program. This will discuss several topics. Based on feedback from the 2010 Spring Program, SPoRT created two variant PGLM products, which NSSL produced locally and provided in real-time within AWIPS for 2011. The first is the flash initiation density (FID) product, which creates a gridded display showing the number of flashes that originated in each 8 8 km grid box. The second product is the maximum flash density (MFD). This shows the highest PGLM value for each grid point over a specific period of time, ranging from 30 to 120 minutes. In addition to the evaluation of these two new products, the evaluation of the PGLM itself will be covered. The presentation will conclude with forecaster feedback for additional improvements requested for future evaluations, such as within the 2012 Spring Program.

NASA Products to Enhance Energy Utility Load Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lough, G.; Zell, E.; Engel-Cox, J.; Fungard, Y.; Jedlovec, G.; Stackhouse, P.; Homer, R.; Biley, S.

2012-01-01

Existing energy load forecasting tools rely upon historical load and forecasted weather to predict load within energy company service areas. The shortcomings of load forecasts are often the result of weather forecasts that are not at a fine enough spatial or temporal resolution to capture local-scale weather events. This project aims to improve the performance of load forecasting tools through the integration of high-resolution, weather-related NASA Earth Science Data, such as temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. Three companies are participating in operational testing one natural gas company, and two electric providers. Operational results comparing load forecasts with and without NASA weather forecasts have been generated since March 2010. We have worked with end users at the three companies to refine selection of weather forecast information and optimize load forecast model performance. The project will conclude in 2012 with transitioning documented improvements from the inclusion of NASA forecasts for sustained use by energy utilities nationwide in a variety of load forecasting tools. In addition, Battelle has consulted with energy companies nationwide to document their information needs for long-term planning, in light of climate change and regulatory impacts.

40 CFR 63.561 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... useful purpose in the production or use of the primary product or commodity and is not isolated. Leak means a reading of 10,000 parts per million volume (ppmv) or greater as methane that is determined using...

Sustainable Systems Analysis of Production and Transportation Scenarios for Conventional and Bio-based Energy Commodities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doran, E. M.; Golden, J. S.; Nowacek, D. P.

2013-12-01

International commerce places unique pressures on the sustainability of water resources and marine environments. System impacts include noise, emissions, and chemical and biological pollutants like introduction of invasive species into key ecosystems. At the same time, maritime trade also enables the sustainability ambition of intragenerational equity in the economy through the global circulation of commodities and manufactured goods, including agricultural, energy and mining resources (UN Trade and Development Board 2013). This paper presents a framework to guide the analysis of the multiple dimensions of the sustainable commerce-ocean nexus. As a demonstration case, we explore the social, economic and environmental aspects of the nexus framework using scenarios for the production and transportation of conventional and bio-based energy commodities. Using coupled LCA and GIS methodologies, we are able to orient the findings spatially for additional insight. Previous work on the sustainable use of marine resources has focused on distinct aspects of the maritime environment. The framework presented here, integrates the anthropogenic use, governance and impacts on the marine and coastal environments with the natural components of the system. A similar framework has been highly effective in progressing the study of land-change science (Turner et al 2007), however modification is required for the unique context of the marine environment. This framework will enable better research integration and planning for sustainability objectives including mitigation and adaptation to climate change, sea level rise, reduced dependence on fossil fuels, protection of critical marine habitat and species, and better management of the ocean as an emerging resource base for the production and transport of commodities and energy across the globe. The framework can also be adapted for vulnerability analysis, resilience studies and to evaluate the trends in production, consumption and commerce. To demonstrate the usefulness of the framework, we construct several scenarios as case studies to explore the emerging trends of larger ship deployment and the changing portfolio of energy resources including the increased consumption of bio-based energy. The maritime transportation industry remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels to power transport, while energy, mineral and grain remain the largest bulk commodities shipped. Emerging markets for such commodities, as well as new production methods and locations are considered. We overlay these trends and shifts with ecological areas of concern and biological migration routes. The diversity of governance regimes is also considered to produce a clearer picture of the emerging hot-spots for further study and for the synergies and tradeoffs that must be considered to achieve a sustainable ocean system. References Turner BL, Lambin EF, Reenberg A (2007) Proc Natl Acad Sci, (104):20666-20671. UN Trade and Development Board (2013) Recent developments and trends in international maritime transport affecting trade of developing countries, TD/B/C.1/30.

Adapting CALIPSO Climate Measurements for Near Real Time Analyses and Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vaughan, Mark A.; Trepte, Charles R.; Winker, David M.; Avery, Melody A.; Campbell, James; Hoff, Ray; Young, Stuart; Getzewich, Brian J.; Tackett, Jason L.; Kar, Jayanta

2011-01-01

The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission was originally conceived and designed as a climate measurements mission, with considerable latency between data acquisition and the release of the level 1 and level 2 data products. However, the unique nature of the CALIPSO lidar backscatter profiles quickly led to the qualitative use of CALIPSO?s near real time (i.e., ? expedited?) lidar data imagery in several different forecasting applications. To enable quantitative use of their near real time analyses, the CALIPSO project recently expanded their expedited data catalog to include all of the standard level 1 and level 2 lidar data products. Also included is a new cloud cleared level 1.5 profile product developed for use by operational forecast centers for verification of aerosol predictions. This paper describes the architecture and content of the CALIPSO expedited data products. The fidelity and accuracy of the expedited products are assessed via comparisons to the standard CALIPSO data products.

Combining forecast weights: Why and how?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yip Chee; Kok-Haur, Ng; Hock-Eam, Lim

2012-09-01

This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions, forecast weight averaging can lower the mean squared forecast error obtained from model averaging. In addition, we show that in a linear and homoskedastic environment, this superior predictive ability of forecast weight averaging holds true irrespective whether the coefficients are tested by t statistic or z statistic provided the significant level is within the 10% range. By theoretical proofs and simulation study, we have shown that model averaging like, variance model averaging, simple model averaging and standard error model averaging, each produces mean squared forecast error larger than that of forecast weight averaging. Finally, this result also holds true marginally when applied to business and economic empirical data sets, Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Lending Rate (ALR) of Malaysia.

Sustainable multipurpose biorefineries for third-generation biofuels and value-added co-products

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Modern biorefinery facilities conduct many types of processes, including those producing advanced biofuels, commodity chemicals, biodiesel, and value-added co-products such as sweeteners and bioinsecticides, with many more co-products, chemicals and biofuels on the horizon. Most of these processes ...

Near-real-time Estimation and Forecast of Total Precipitable Water in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartholy, J.; Kern, A.; Barcza, Z.; Pongracz, R.; Ihasz, I.; Kovacs, R.; Ferencz, C.

2013-12-01

Information about the amount and spatial distribution of atmospheric water vapor (or total precipitable water) is essential for understanding weather and the environment including the greenhouse effect, the climate system with its feedbacks and the hydrological cycle. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models need accurate estimations of water vapor content to provide realistic forecasts including representation of clouds and precipitation. In the present study we introduce our research activity for the estimation and forecast of atmospheric water vapor in Central Europe using both observations and models. The Eötvös Loránd University (Hungary) operates a polar orbiting satellite receiving station in Budapest since 2002. This station receives Earth observation data from polar orbiting satellites including MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Direct Broadcast (DB) data stream from satellites Terra and Aqua. The received DB MODIS data are automatically processed using freely distributed software packages. Using the IMAPP Level2 software total precipitable water is calculated operationally using two different methods. Quality of the TPW estimations is a crucial question for further application of the results, thus validation of the remotely sensed total precipitable water fields is presented using radiosonde data. In a current research project in Hungary we aim to compare different estimations of atmospheric water vapor content. Within the frame of the project we use a NWP model (DBCRAS; Direct Broadcast CIMSS Regional Assimilation System numerical weather prediction software developed by the University of Wisconsin, Madison) to forecast TPW. DBCRAS uses near real time Level2 products from the MODIS data processing chain. From the wide range of the derived Level2 products the MODIS TPW parameter found within the so-called mod07 results (Atmospheric Profiles Product) and the cloud top pressure and cloud effective emissivity parameters from the so-called mod06 results (Cloud Product) are assimilated twice a day (at 00 and 12 UTC) by DBCRAS. DBCRAS creates 72 hours long weather forecasts with 48 km horizontal resolution. DBCRAS is operational at the University since 2009 which means that by now sufficient data is available for the verification of the model. In the present study verification results for the DBCRAS total precipitable water forecasts are presented based on analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Numerical indices are calculated to quantify the performance of DBCRAS. During a limited time period DBCRAS was also ran without assimilating MODIS products which means that there is possibility to quantify the effect of assimilating MODIS physical products on the quality of the forecasts. For this limited time period verification indices are compared to decide whether MODIS data improves forecast quality or not.

The Market for Optical Disk Products: A Review of Published Forecasts, 1980-1990.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saffady, William

1991-01-01

Examines the expectations and reality of optical disk market forecasts published between 1980 and 1990. A historical survey and review of these studies is presented, with general forecasts of all optical disk types included. It is concluded that unrealistic predictions may have contributed to a sluggish market for optical disks. (70 notes)…

Crop calendars for the US, USSR, and Canada in support of the early warning project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodges, T.; Sestak, M. L.; Trenchard, M. H. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

New crop calendars are produced for U.S. regions where several years of periodic growth stage observations are available on a CRD basis. Preexisting crop calendars from the LACIE are also collected as are U.S. crop calendars currently being created for the Foreign Commodities Production Forecast project. For the U.S.S.R. and Canada, no new crop calendars are created because no new data are available. Instead, LACIE crop calendars are compared against simulated normal daily temperatures and against the Robertson wheat and Williams barley phenology models run on the simulated normal temperatures. Severe inconsistencies are noted and discussed. For the U.S.S.R., spring and fall planting dates can probably be estimated accurately from satellite or meteorological data. For the starter model problem, the Feyerherm spring wheat model is recommended for spring planted small grains, and the results of an analysis are presented. For fall planted small grains, use of normal planting dates supplemented by spectral observation of an early stage is recommended. The importance of nonmeteorological factors as they pertain to meteorological factors in determining fall planting is discussed. Crop calendar data available at the Johnson Space Center for the U.S., U.S.S.R., Canada, and other countries are inventoried.

Linking seasonal climate forecasts with crop models in Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capa, Mirian; Ines, Amor; Baethgen, Walter; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Han, Eunjin; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

2015-04-01

Translating seasonal climate forecasts into agricultural production forecasts could help to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. In this study, we use seasonal rainfall forecasts and crop models to improve predictability of wheat yield in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). Additionally, we estimate economic margins and production risks associated with extreme scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecast. This study evaluates two methods for disaggregating seasonal climate forecasts into daily weather data: 1) a stochastic weather generator (CondWG), and 2) a forecast tercile resampler (FResampler). Both methods were used to generate 100 (with FResampler) and 110 (with CondWG) weather series/sequences for three scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts. Simulated wheat yield is computed with the crop model CERES-wheat (Ritchie and Otter, 1985), which is included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5, Hoogenboom et al., 2010). Simulations were run at two locations in northeastern Spain where the crop model was calibrated and validated with independent field data. Once simulated yields were obtained, an assessment of farmer's gross margin for different seasonal climate forecasts was accomplished to estimate production risks under different climate scenarios. This methodology allows farmers to assess the benefits and risks of a seasonal weather forecast in IP prior to the crop growing season. The results of this study may have important implications on both, public (agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors. Acknowledgements Research by M. Capa-Morocho has been partly supported by a PICATA predoctoral fellowship of the Moncloa Campus of International Excellence (UCM-UPM) and MULCLIVAR project (CGL2012-38923-C02-02) References Hoogenboom, G. et al., 2010. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT).Version 4.5 [CD-ROM].University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii. Ritchie, J.T., Otter, S., 1985. Description and performanceof CERES-Wheat: a user-oriented wheat yield model. In: ARS Wheat Yield Project. ARS-38.Natl Tech Info Serv, Springfield, Missouri, pp. 159-175.

Wind power forecasting for a real onshore wind farm on complex terrain using WRF high resolution simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ángel Prósper Fernández, Miguel; Casal, Carlos Otero; Canoura Fernández, Felipe; Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo

2017-04-01

Regional meteorological models are becoming a generalized tool for forecasting wind resource, due to their capacity to simulate local flow dynamics impacting wind farm production. This study focuses on the production forecast and validation of a real onshore wind farm using high horizontal and vertical resolution WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model simulations. The wind farm is located in Galicia, in the northwest of Spain, in a complex terrain region with high wind resource. Utilizing the Fitch scheme, specific for wind farms, a period of one year is simulated with a daily operational forecasting set-up. Power and wind predictions are obtained and compared with real data provided by the management company. Results show that WRF is able to yield good wind power operational predictions for this kind of wind farms, due to a good representation of the planetary boundary layer behaviour of the region and the good performance of the Fitch scheme under these conditions.

An Analysis of the Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Arthur (2014) from a JPSS Proving Ground Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folmer, M. J.; Berndt, E.; Halverson, J. B.; Dunion, J. P.; Goldberg, M.

2015-12-01

As part of the GOES-R and JPSS Satellite Proving Grounds, multiple proxy and operational products were available to analyze and forecast the complex evolution of Hurricane Arthur (2014). The National Hurricane Center, Ocean Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch were able to monitor the tropical and extratropical transition of Arthur using various convective and red, green, blue (RGB) products that have been introduced in recent years. During the extratropical transition, the Air Mass RGB (AM RGB) product and AIRS/CrIS ozone products were available as a compliment to water vapor imagery to identify the upper-level low with associated stratospheric drying that absorbed much of Arthur's energy. The AM RGB product provides forecasters with an enhanced view of various air masses that are combined into a single image and can help differentiate between possible stratospheric/tropospheric interactions, moist tropical air masses, and cool, continental/maritime air masses. Even though this product provides a wealth of qualitative information about the horizontal distribution of synoptic features, forecasters are also interested in more quantitative information such as the vertical distribution of temperature, moisture, and ozone which impact the coloring of the resulting AM RGB. Currently, NOAA Unique CrIS/ATMS Processing System (NUCAPS) temperature and moisture soundings are available in AWIPS-II as a point-based display. Traditionally, soundings are used to anticipate and forecast severe convection, however unique and valuable information can be gained from soundings for other forecasting applications, such as extratropical transition, especially in data sparse regions. Additional research has been conducted to look at how NUCAPS soundings might help forecasters identify the pre-extratropical transition environment, leading to earlier diagnosis and better public advisories. NUCAPS soundings, AIRS soundings, NOAA G-IV GPS dropwindsondes, and the AM RGB were analyzed leading up to and during Arthur's tropical to extratropical transition. The presentation will focus on the use of NUCAPS in concert with the AM RGB product to analyze Arthur's extratropical transition for use in NWS operations.

7 CFR 1220.241 - Reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SOYBEAN PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND CONSUMER INFORMATION Soybean Promotion and Research Order Reports, Books, and Records § 1220.241 Reports. Each producer marketing processed soybeans or soybean products of that producer's own production and...

Correlative Techniques in Microscopy

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Imaging is an important component in basic research, product development and understanding structure/function relationships in agricultural commodities and products. An array of microscopes and techniques can be used illustrate the structure and microchemistry of diverse samples. Examples of the var...

Water Management Applications of Advanced Precipitation Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, L. E.; Braswell, G.; Delaney, C.

2012-12-01

Advanced precipitation sensors and numerical models track storms as they occur and forecast the likelihood of heavy rain for time frames ranging from 1 to 8 hours, 1 day, and extended outlooks out to 3 to 7 days. Forecast skill decreases at the extended time frames but the outlooks have been shown to provide "situational awareness" which aids in preparation for flood mitigation and water supply operations. In California the California-Nevada River Forecast Centers and local Weather Forecast Offices provide precipitation products that are widely used to support water management and flood response activities of various kinds. The Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) program is being conducted to help advance the science of precipitation tracking and forecasting in support of the NWS. HMT high-resolution products have found applications for other non-federal water management activities as well. This presentation will describe water management applications of HMT advanced precipitation products, and characterization of benefits expected to accrue. Two case examples will be highlighted, 1) reservoir operations for flood control and water supply, and 2) urban stormwater management. Application of advanced precipitation products in support of reservoir operations is a focus of the Sonoma County Water Agency. Examples include: a) interfacing the high-resolution QPE products with a distributed hydrologic model for the Russian-Napa watersheds, b) providing early warning of in-coming storms for flood preparedness and water supply storage operations. For the stormwater case, San Francisco wastewater engineers are developing a plan to deploy high resolution gap-filling radars looking off shore to obtain longer lead times on approaching storms. A 4 to 8 hour lead time would provide opportunity to optimize stormwater capture and treatment operations, and minimize combined sewer overflows into the Bay.ussian River distributed hydrologic model.

Short Term Weather Forecasting and Long Term Climate Predictions in Mesoamerica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardin, D. M.; Daniel, I.; Mecikalski, J.; Graves, S.

2008-05-01

The SERVIR project utilizes several predictive models to support regional monitoring and decision support in Mesoamerica. Short term forecasts ranging from a few hours to several days produce more than 30 data products that are used daily by decision makers, as well as news organizations in the region. The forecast products can be visualized in both two and three dimensional viewers such as Google Maps and Google Earth. Other viewers developed specifically for the Mesoamerican region by the University of Alabama in Huntsville and the Institute for the Application of Geospatial Technologies in Auburn New York can also be employed. In collaboration with the NASA Short Term Prediction Research and Transition (SpoRT) Center SERVIR utilizes the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to produce short-term (24 hr) regional weather forecasts twice a day. Temperature, precipitation, wind, and other variables are forecast in 10km and 30km grids over the Mesoamerica region. Using the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model, known as MM5, SERVIR produces 48 hour- forecasts of soil temperature, two meter surface temperature, three hour accumulated precipitation, winds at different heights, and other variables. These are forecast hourly in 9km grids. Working in collaboration with the Atmospheric Science Department of the University of Alabama in Huntsville produces a suite of short-term (0-6 hour) weather prediction products are generated. These "convective initiation" products predict the onset of thunderstorm rainfall and lightning within a 1-hour timeframe. Models are also employed for long term predictions. The SERVIR project, under USAID funding, has developed comprehensive regional climate change scenarios of Mesoamerica for future years: 2010, 2015, 2025, 2050, and 2099. These scenarios were created using the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (MM5) model and processed on the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Cheetah supercomputer. The goal of these Mesoamerican climate change scenarios is to better understand the regional climate, the major controls, and how it might be expected to change in the future. This presentation will present a summary of the model results and show the application of these data in preparation for and response to recent tropical storms.

JPSS Proving Ground Activities with NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, L. A.; Smith, M. R.; Fuell, K.; Stano, G. T.; LeRoy, A.; Berndt, E.

2015-12-01

Instruments aboard the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) series of satellites will provide imagery and other data sets relevant to operational weather forecasts. To prepare current and future weather forecasters in application of these data sets, Proving Ground activities have been established that demonstrate future JPSS capabilities through use of similar sensors aboard NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, and the S-NPP mission. As part of these efforts, NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama partners with near real-time providers of S-NPP products (e.g., NASA, UW/CIMSS, UAF/GINA, etc.) to demonstrate future capabilities of JPSS. This includes training materials and product distribution of multi-spectral false color composites of the visible, near-infrared, and infrared bands of MODIS and VIIRS. These are designed to highlight phenomena of interest to help forecasters digest the multispectral data provided by the VIIRS sensor. In addition, forecasters have been trained on the use of the VIIRS day-night band, which provides imagery of moonlit clouds, surface, and lights emitted by human activities. Hyperspectral information from the S-NPP/CrIS instrument provides thermodynamic profiles that aid in the detection of extremely cold air aloft, helping to map specific aviation hazards at high latitudes. Hyperspectral data also support the estimation of ozone concentration, which can highlight the presence of much drier stratospheric air, and map its interaction with mid-latitude or tropical cyclones to improve predictions of their strengthening or decay. Proving Ground activities are reviewed, including training materials and methods that have been provided to forecasters, and forecaster feedback on these products that has been acquired through formal, detailed assessment of their applicability to a given forecast threat or task. Future opportunities for collaborations around the delivery of training are proposed, along with other applications of multispectral data and derived, more quantitative products.

Estimation efficiency of usage satellite derived and modelled biophysical products for yield forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolotii, Andrii; Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii; Ostapenko, Vadim; Oliinyk, Tamara

2015-04-01

Efficient and timely crop monitoring and yield forecasting are important tasks for ensuring of stability and sustainable economic development [1]. As winter crops pay prominent role in agriculture of Ukraine - the main focus of this study is concentrated on winter wheat. In our previous research [2, 3] it was shown that usage of biophysical parameters of crops such as FAPAR (derived from Geoland-2 portal as for SPOT Vegetation data) is far more efficient for crop yield forecasting to NDVI derived from MODIS data - for available data. In our current work efficiency of usage such biophysical parameters as LAI, FAPAR, FCOVER (derived from SPOT Vegetation and PROBA-V data at resolution of 1 km and simulated within WOFOST model) and NDVI product (derived from MODIS) for winter wheat monitoring and yield forecasting is estimated. As the part of crop monitoring workflow (vegetation anomaly detection, vegetation indexes and products analysis) and yield forecasting SPIRITS tool developed by JRC is used. Statistics extraction is done for landcover maps created in SRI within FP-7 SIGMA project. Efficiency of usage satellite based and modelled with WOFOST model biophysical products is estimated. [1] N. Kussul, S. Skakun, A. Shelestov, O. Kussul, "Sensor Web approach to Flood Monitoring and Risk Assessment", in: IGARSS 2013, 21-26 July 2013, Melbourne, Australia, pp. 815-818. [2] F. Kogan, N. Kussul, T. Adamenko, S. Skakun, O. Kravchenko, O. Kryvobok, A. Shelestov, A. Kolotii, O. Kussul, and A. Lavrenyuk, "Winter wheat yield forecasting in Ukraine based on Earth observation, meteorological data and biophysical models," International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, vol. 23, pp. 192-203, 2013. [3] Kussul O., Kussul N., Skakun S., Kravchenko O., Shelestov A., Kolotii A, "Assessment of relative efficiency of using MODIS data to winter wheat yield forecasting in Ukraine", in: IGARSS 2013, 21-26 July 2013, Melbourne, Australia, pp. 3235 - 3238.

The Future Impact of Vietnam Era Veterans on Inpatient Acute Care and Mental Health Product Lines at a Veterans Affairs Medical Center

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-06-20

smoothing and regression which includes curve fitting are two principle forecasting model types utilized in the vast majority of forecasting applications ... model were compared against the VA Office of Policy and Planning forecasting study commissioned with the actuarial firm of Milliman & Robertson (M & R... Application to the Veterans Healthcare System The development of a model to forecast future VEV needs, utilization, and cost of the Acute Care and

48 CFR 52.232-25 - Prompt payment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...; perishable agricultural commodities; and dairy products, edible fats or oils, and food products prepared from edible fats or oils are— (A) For meat or meat food products, as defined in section 2(a)(3) of the Packers...)), edible fats or oils, and food products prepared from edible fats or oils, as close as possible to, but...

48 CFR 52.232-25 - Prompt payment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...; perishable agricultural commodities; and dairy products, edible fats or oils, and food products prepared from edible fats or oils are— (A) For meat or meat food products, as defined in section 2(a)(3) of the Packers...)), edible fats or oils, and food products prepared from edible fats or oils, as close as possible to, but...

5 CFR 1315.4 - Prompt payment standards and required notices to vendors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... minimum, liquid milk, cheese, certain processed cheese products, butter, yogurt, and ice cream, edible fats or oils, and food products prepared from edible fats or oils (including, at a minimum, mayonnaise... commodities, dairy products, edible fats or oils and food products prepared from edible fats or oils), the...

5 CFR 1315.4 - Prompt payment standards and required notices to vendors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... minimum, liquid milk, cheese, certain processed cheese products, butter, yogurt, and ice cream, edible fats or oils, and food products prepared from edible fats or oils (including, at a minimum, mayonnaise... commodities, dairy products, edible fats or oils and food products prepared from edible fats or oils), the...

Long-run effects of falling cellulosic ethanol production costs on the US agricultural economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campiche, Jody L.; Bryant, Henry L.; Richardson, James W.

2010-01-01

Renewable energy production has been expanding at a rapid pace. New advances in cellulosic ethanol technologies have the potential to displace the use of petroleum as a transportation fuel, and could have significant effects on both the agricultural economy and the environment. In this letter, the effects of falling cellulosic ethanol production costs on the mix of ethanol feedstocks employed and on the US agricultural economy are examined. Results indicate that, as expected, cellulosic ethanol production increases by a substantial amount as conversion technology improves. Corn production increases initially following the introduction of cellulosic technology, because producers enjoy new revenue from sales of corn stover. After cellulosic ethanol production becomes substantially cheaper, however, acres are shifted from corn production to all other agricultural commodities. Essentially, this new technology could facilitate the exploitation of a previously under-employed resource (corn stover), resulting in an improvement in overall welfare. In the most optimistic scenario considered, 68% of US ethanol is derived from cellulosic sources, coarse grain production is reduced by about 2%, and the prices of all food commodities are reduced modestly.

Operational use of the AIRS Total Column Ozone Retrievals along with the RGB Airmass Product as Part of the GOES-R Proving Ground

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Folmer, M.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Molthan, Andrew

2012-01-01

The Red, Green, Blue (RGB) Air Mass product has been demonstrated in the GOES ]R Proving Ground as a possible decision aid. Forecasters have been trained on the usefulness of identifying stratospheric intrusions and potential vorticity (PV) anomalies that can lead to explosive cyclogenesis, genesis of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), or the transition of tropical cyclones to extratropical cyclones. It has also been demonstrated to distinguish different air mass types from warm, low ozone air masses to cool, high ozone air masses and the various interactions with the PV anomalies. To assist the forecasters in understanding the stratospheric contribution to high impact weather systems, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Total Column Ozone Retrievals have been made available as an operational tool. These AIRS retrievals provide additional information on the amount of ozone that is associated with the red coloring seen in the RGB Air Mass product. This paper discusses how the AIRS retrievals can be used to quantify the red coloring in RGB Air Mass product. These retrievals can be used to diagnose the depth of the stratospheric intrusions associated with different types of weather systems and provide the forecasters decision aid tools that can improve the quality of forecast products.

Gene disruption technologies have the potential to transform stored product insect pest control

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Stored product insects feed on grains and processed commodities manufactured from grain post-harvest, reducing the nutritional value and contaminating food. Currently, the main defense against stored product insect pests is the pesticide fumigant phosphine. Phosphine is highly toxic to all animals, ...

Risk of ricin from commercial castor production in North America

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Commercial production of castor, as a source of highly valuable hydroxyl fatty acids, has been limited by both the real and perceived risks of commercial castor production in North America. Crop commodity groups, regulatory governmental agencies, and much of the general public may have reservations ...

SPoRT's Participation in the GOES-R Proving Ground Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary; Fuell, Kevin; Smith, Matthew; Stano, Geoffrey; Molthan, Andrew

2011-01-01

The next generation geostationary satellite, GOES-R, will carry two new instruments with unique atmospheric and surface observing capabilities, the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), to study short-term weather processes. The ABI will bring enhanced multispectral observing capabilities with frequent refresh rates for regional and full disk coverage to geostationary orbit to address many existing and new forecast challenges. The GLM will, for the first time, provide the continuous monitoring of total lightning flashes over a hemispherical region from space. NOAA established the GOES-R Proving Ground activity several years ago to demonstrate the new capabilities of these instruments and to prepare forecasters for their day one use. Proving Ground partners work closely with algorithm developers and the end user community to develop and transition proxy data sets representing GOES-R observing capabilities. This close collaboration helps to maximize refine algorithms leading to the delivery of a product that effectively address a forecast challenge. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has been a participant in the NOAA GOES-R Proving Ground activity by developing and disseminating selected GOES-R proxy products to collaborating WFOs and National Centers. Established in 2002 to demonstrate the weather and forecasting application of real-time EOS measurements, the SPoRT program has grown to be an end-to-end research to operations activity focused on the use of advanced NASA modeling and data assimilation approaches, nowcasting techniques, and unique high-resolution multispectral data from EOS satellites to improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional and local scale. Participation in the Proving Ground activities extends SPoRT s activities and taps its experience and expertise in diagnostic weather analysis, short-term weather forecasting, and the transition of research and experimental data to operational decision support systems like NAWIPS, AWIPS, AWIPS2, and Google Earth. Recent SPoRT Proving Ground activities supporting the development and use of a pseudo GLM total lightning product and the transition of the AWG s Convective Initiation (CI) product, both of which were available in AWIPS and AWIPS II environments, by forecasters during the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Experiment. SPoRT is also providing a suite of SEVIRI and MODIS RGB image products, and a high resolution composite SST product to several National Centers for use in there ongoing demonstration activities. Additionally, SPoRT has involved numerous WFOs in the evaluation of a GOES-MODIS hybrid product which brings ABI-like data sets in front of the forecaster for everyday use. An overview of this activity will be presented at the conference.

SPoRT's Participation in the GOES-R Proving Ground Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jedlovec, G.; Fuell, K.; Smith, M. R.; Stano, G. T.; Molthan, A.

2011-12-01

The next generation geostationary satellite, GOES-R, will carry two new instruments with unique atmospheric and surface observing capabilities, the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), to study short-term weather processes. The ABI will bring enhanced multispectral observing capabilities with frequent refresh rates for regional and full disk coverage to geostationary orbit to address many existing and new forecast challenges. The GLM will, for the first time, provide the continuous monitoring of total lightning flashes over a hemispherical region from space. NOAA established the GOES-R Proving Ground activity several years ago to demonstrate the new capabilities of these instruments and to prepare forecasters for their day one use. Proving Ground partners work closely with algorithm developers and the end user community to develop and transition proxy data sets representing GOES-R observing capabilities. This close collaboration helps to maximize refine algorithms leading to the delivery of a product that effectively address a forecast challenge. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has been a participant in the NOAA GOES-R Proving Ground activity by developing and disseminating selected GOES-R proxy products to collaborating WFOs and National Centers. Established in 2002 to demonstrate the weather and forecasting application of real-time EOS measurements, the SPoRT program has grown to be an end-to-end research to operations activity focused on the use of advanced NASA modeling and data assimilation approaches, nowcasting techniques, and unique high-resolution multispectral data from EOS satellites to improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional and local scale. Participation in the Proving Ground activities extends SPoRT's activities and taps its experience and expertise in diagnostic weather analysis, short-term weather forecasting, and the transition of research and experimental data to operational decision support systems like NAWIPS, AWIPS, AWIPS2, and Google Earth. Recent SPoRT Proving Ground activities supporting the development and use of a pseudo GLM total lightning product and the transition of the AWG's Convective Initiation (CI) product, both of which were available in AWIPS and AWIPS II environments, by forecasters during the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Experiment. SPoRT is also providing a suite of SEVIRI and MODIS RGB image products, and a high resolution composite SST product to several National Centers for use in there ongoing demonstration activities. Additionally, SPoRT has involved numerous WFOs in the evaluation of a GOES-MODIS hybrid product which brings ABI-like data sets in front of the forecaster for everyday use. An overview of this activity will be presented at the conference.

HEPS4Power - Extended-range Hydrometeorological Ensemble Predictions for Improved Hydropower Operations and Revenues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogner, Konrad; Monhart, Samuel; Liniger, Mark; Spririg, Christoph; Jordan, Fred; Zappa, Massimiliano

2015-04-01

In recent years large progresses have been achieved in the operational prediction of floods and hydrological drought with up to ten days lead time. Both the public and the private sectors are currently using probabilistic runoff forecast in order to monitoring water resources and take actions when critical conditions are to be expected. The use of extended-range predictions with lead times exceeding 10 days is not yet established. The hydropower sector in particular might have large benefits from using hydro meteorological forecasts for the next 15 to 60 days in order to optimize the operations and the revenues from their watersheds, dams, captions, turbines and pumps. The new Swiss Competence Centers in Energy Research (SCCER) targets at boosting research related to energy issues in Switzerland. The objective of HEPS4POWER is to demonstrate that operational extended-range hydro meteorological forecasts have the potential to become very valuable tools for fine tuning the production of energy from hydropower systems. The project team covers a specific system-oriented value chain starting from the collection and forecast of meteorological data (MeteoSwiss), leading to the operational application of state-of-the-art hydrological models (WSL) and terminating with the experience in data presentation and power production forecasts for end-users (e-dric.ch). The first task of the HEPS4POWER will be the downscaling and post-processing of ensemble extended-range meteorological forecasts (EPS). The goal is to provide well-tailored forecasts of probabilistic nature that should be reliable in statistical and localized at catchment or even station level. The hydrology related task will consist in feeding the post-processed meteorological forecasts into a HEPS using a multi-model approach by implementing models with different complexity. Also in the case of the hydrological ensemble predictions, post-processing techniques need to be tested in order to improve the quality of the forecasts against observed discharge. Analysis should be specifically oriented to the maximisation of hydroelectricity production. Thus, verification metrics should include economic measures like cost loss approaches. The final step will include the transfer of the HEPS system to several hydropower systems, the connection with the energy market prices and the development of probabilistic multi-reservoir production and management optimizations guidelines. The baseline model chain yielding three-days forecasts established for a hydropower system in southern-Switzerland will be presented alongside with the work-plan to achieve seasonal ensemble predictions.

An Agent-Based Interface to Terrestrial Ecological Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Golden, Keith; Nemani, Ramakrishna; Pang, Wan-Lin; Votava, Petr; Etzioni, Oren

2004-01-01

This paper describes a flexible agent-based ecological forecasting system that combines multiple distributed data sources and models to provide near-real-time answers to questions about the state of the Earth system We build on novel techniques in automated constraint-based planning and natural language interfaces to automatically generate data products based on descriptions of the desired data products.

Prediction of kharif rice yield at Kharagpur using disaggregated extended range rainfall forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhekale, B. S.; Nageswararao, M. M.; Nair, Archana; Mohanty, U. C.; Swain, D. K.; Singh, K. K.; Arunbabu, T.

2017-08-01

The Extended Range Forecasts System (ERFS) has been generating monthly and seasonal forecasts on real-time basis throughout the year over India since 2009. India is one of the major rice producer and consumer in South Asia; more than 50% of the Indian population depends on rice as staple food. Rice is mainly grown in kharif season, which contributed 84% of the total annual rice production of the country. Rice cultivation in India is rainfed, which depends largely on rains, so reliability of the rainfall forecast plays a crucial role for planning the kharif rice crop. In the present study, an attempt has been made to test the reliability of seasonal and sub-seasonal ERFS summer monsoon rainfall forecasts for kharif rice yield predictions at Kharagpur, West Bengal by using CERES-Rice (DSSATv4.5) model. These ERFS forecasts are produced as monthly and seasonal mean values and are converted into daily sequences with stochastic weather generators for use with crop growth models. The daily sequences are generated from ERFS seasonal (June-September) and sub-seasonal (July-September, August-September, and September) summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall forecasts which are considered as input in CERES-rice crop simulation model for the crop yield prediction for hindcast (1985-2008) and real-time mode (2009-2015). The yield simulated using India Meteorological Department (IMD) observed daily rainfall data is considered as baseline yield for evaluating the performance of predicted yields using the ERFS forecasts. The findings revealed that the stochastic disaggregation can be used to disaggregate the monthly/seasonal ERFS forecasts into daily sequences. The year to year variability in rice yield at Kharagpur is efficiently predicted by using the ERFS forecast products in hindcast as well as real time, and significant enhancement in the prediction skill is noticed with advancement in the season due to incorporation of observed weather data which reduces uncertainty of yield prediction. The findings also recommend that the normal and above normal yields are predicted well in advance using the ERFS forecasts. The outcomes of this study are useful to farmers for taking appropriate decisions well in advance for climate risk management in rice production during different stages of the crop growing season at Kharagpur.

The food production and consumption balance in sub-Saharan Africa under different SSPs, from 2010 to 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Luan, Y.; Fischer, G.; Sun, L.; Shi, P.

2015-12-01

Forcing with the population growth and consequently increasing food requirement, food security in sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most emergent and challenging issues. The purposes of this work are 1) what's the future food requirement and their food security status in each sub-Saharan African countries? What is the distance from current and future food security status, corresponding to the food requirement, to the targeted food security status? 2) To what extent Sub-Saharan countries could meet their present and future food requirement, and whether they have potential to improve their food insecurity status on currently cultivated land? 3) Whether or, if there have, how the pressures on land resources from meeting the food requirements? To figure those questions out, we firstly use socio-economic pathways datasets, and historical food diet pattern classification to forecast the 2010-2050 food commodity and feed calories demand per country. A new food security indicator, which considered the influences of both the food energy and quality intake, was used to evaluate the food insecurity status and the distances to different targeted statuses of the specific country. The latest Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) databases were used to estimate the current and future crop yield gap and crop potential production. For current to future scenario analysis, we considered population growth, dietary change, climate change, agricultural input level, and target food security status. Then the balance of food requirement with the current and potential crop production was analyzed for different scenarios. Land requirements were calculated for meeting those food requirements, and the pressures on land resources are evaluated. Our works are hoping to provide scientific-based evidences for policy recommendations for local government to tackle food insecurity problems in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, Kean; Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia; Olsson, Jonas

2018-05-01

Hydropower makes up nearly half of Sweden's electrical energy production. However, the distribution of the water resources is not aligned with demand, as most of the inflows to the reservoirs occur during the spring flood period. This means that carefully planned reservoir management is required to help redistribute water resources to ensure optimal production and accurate forecasts of the spring flood volume (SFV) is essential for this. The current operational SFV forecasts use a historical ensemble approach where the HBV model is forced with historical observations of precipitation and temperature. In this work we develop and test a multi-model prototype, building on previous work, and evaluate its ability to forecast the SFV in 84 sub-basins in northern Sweden. The hypothesis explored in this work is that a multi-model seasonal forecast system incorporating different modelling approaches is generally more skilful at forecasting the SFV in snow dominated regions than a forecast system that utilises only one approach. The testing is done using cross-validated hindcasts for the period 1981-2015 and the results are evaluated against both climatology and the current system to determine skill. Both the multi-model methods considered showed skill over the reference forecasts. The version that combined the historical modelling chain, dynamical modelling chain, and statistical modelling chain performed better than the other and was chosen for the prototype. The prototype was able to outperform the current operational system 57 % of the time on average and reduce the error in the SFV by ˜ 6 % across all sub-basins and forecast dates.

World oilseed situation and U. S. export opportunities, December 1983. Foreign agriculture circular

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1983-12-01

A slight increase in world oilseed production above last month's forecast, to 163.0 million tons, still leaves 1983/84 production over 9 percent below last year. Forecast utilization of oilseeds and products remain essentially unchanged from last month. Despite the relatively unchanged world oilseed and product balance, prices have weakened in recent weeks, raising expectations that additional price strength will be needed to bring about the required rationing of reduced world supplies. The other major element of uncertainty is Southern Hemisphere oilseed production, especially the Brazilian and Argentine 1984 soybean crops.

A Real-time 1/16° Global Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shriver, J. F.; Rhodes, R. C.; Hurlburt, H. E.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Metzger, E. J.; Smedstad, O. M.; Kara, A. B.

2001-05-01

A 1/16° eddy-resolving global ocean prediction system that uses the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) has been transitioned to the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO), Stennis Space Center, MS. The system gives a real time view of the ocean down to the 50-100 mile scale of ocean eddies and the meandering of ocean currents and fronts, a view with unprecedented resolution and clarity, and demonstrated forecast skill for a month or more for many ocean features. It has been running in real time at NAVO since 19 Oct 2000 with assimilation of real-time altimeter sea surface height (SSH) data (currently ERS-2, GFO and TOPEX/POSEIDON) and sea surface temperature (SST). The model is updated daily and 4-day forecasts are made daily. 30-day forecasts are made once a week. Nowcasts and forecasts using this model are viewable on the web, including SSH, SST and 30-day forecast verification statistics for many zoom regions. The NRL web address is http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom/index.html. The NAVO web address is: http://www.navo.navy.mil. Click on "Operational Products", then "Product Search Form", then "Product Type View", then select "Model Navy Layered Ocean Model" and a region and click on "Submit Query". This system is used at NAVO for ocean front and eddy analyses and predictions and to provide accurate sea surface height for use in computing synthetic temperature and salinity profiles, among other applications.

Agriculture and Energy: Implications for Food Security, Water, and Land Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokgoz, S.; Zhang, W.; Msangi, S.; Bhandary, P.

2011-12-01

Sustainable production of agricultural commodities and growth of international trade in these goods are challenged as never before by supply-side constraints (such as climate change, water and land scarcity, and environmental degradation) and by demand-side dynamics (volatility in food and energy markets, the strengthening food-energy linkage, population growth, and income growth). On the one hand, the rapidly expanding demand can potentially create new market opportunities for agriculture. On the other hand, there are many threats to a sufficient response by the supply side to meet this growing and changing demand. Agricultural production systems in many countries are neither resource-efficient, nor producing according to their full potential. The stock of natural resources such as land, water, nutrients, energy, and genetic diversity is shrinking relative to demand, and their use must become increasingly efficient in order to reduce environmental impacts and preserve the planet's productive capacity. World energy prices have increased rapidly in recent years. At the same time, agriculture has become more energy-intensive. Higher energy costs have pushed up the cost of producing, transporting and processing agricultural commodities, driving up commodity prices. Higher energy costs have also affected water use and availability through increased costs of water extraction, conveyance and desalinization, higher demand for hydroelectric power, and increased cost of subsidizing water services. In the meantime, the development of biofuels has diverted increasing amounts of agricultural land and water resources to the production of biomass-based renewable energy. This more "intensified" linkage between agriculture and energy comes at a time when there are other pressures on the world's limited resources. The related high food prices, especially those in the developing countries, have led to setbacks in the poverty alleviation effort among the global community with more population under hunger and poverty. In light of these threats and opportunities facing the global food system, the proposed study takes a long-term perspective and addresses the main medium and long- term drivers of agricultural markets using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade developed by the Environment and Production Technology Division of IFPRI to project future production, consumption, and trade of key agricultural commodities. The main objective of the study is to analyze the link between energy and agricultural markets, focusing on the "new" role of agriculture as a supplier of energy for transportation through biofuels, and the subsequent impact on land use and demand for water from the agricultural sector. In this context, this study incorporates various scenarios of future energy demand and energy price impacts on global agricultural markets (food prices and food security), water use implications (irrigation water consumption by agricultural sector), and land use implications (changes in national and global crop area). The scenarios are designed to understand the impact of energy prices on biofuel production, cost of production for agricultural crops, conversion of rainfed area to irrigated area, and necessary levels of crop productivity growth to counter these effects.

Benefits of Sharing Information: Supermodel Ensemble and Applications in South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dias, P. L.

2006-05-01

A model intercomparison program involving a large number of academic and operational institutions has been implemented in South America since 2003, motivated by the SALLJEX Intercomparison Program in 2003 (a research program focused on the identification of the role of the Andes low level jet moisture transport from the Amazon to the Plata basin) and the WMO/THORPEX (www.wmo.int/thorpex) goals to improve predictability through the proper combination of numerical weather forecasts. This program also explores the potential predictability associated with the combination of a large number of possible scenarios in the time scale of a few days to up to 15 days. Five academic institutions and five operational forecasting centers in several countries in South America, 1 academic institution in the USA, and the main global forecasting centers (NCEP, UKMO, ECMWF) agreed to provide numerical products based on operational and experimental models. The metric for model validation is concentrated on the fit of the forecast to surface observations. Meteorological data from airports, synoptic stations operated by national weather services, automatic data platforms maintained by different institutions, the PIRATA buoys etc are all collected through LDM/NCAR or direct transmission. Approximately 40 models outputs are available on a daily basis, twice a day. A simple procedure based on data assimilation principles was quite successful in combining the available forecasts in order to produce temperature, dew point, wind, pressure and precipitation forecasts at station points in S. America. The procedure is based on removing each model bias at the observational point and a weighted average based on the mean square error of the forecasts. The base period for estimating the bias and mean square error is of the order of 15 to 30 days. Products of the intercomparison model program and the optimal statistical combination of the available forecasts are public and available in real time (www.master.iag.usp.br/). Monitoring of the use of the products reveal a growing trend in the last year (reaching about 10.000 accesses per day in recent months). The intercomparison program provides a rich data set for educational products (real time use in Synoptic Meteorology and Numerical Weather Forecasting lectures), operational weather forecasts in national or regional weather centers and for research purposes. During the first phase of the program it was difficult to convince potential participants to share the information in the public homepage. However, as the system evolved, more and more institutions became associated with the program. The general opinion of the participants is that the system provides an unified metric for evaluation, a forum for discussion of the physical origin of the model forecast differences and therefore improvement of the quality of the numerical guidance.