[Considering the current state of fire safety in Taiwan's care environment from the perspective of the nation's worst recent hospital fire].

PubMed

Tseng, Wei-Wen; Shih, Chung-Liang; Chien, Shen-Wen

2013-04-01

Taiwan's worst hospital fire in history on October 23rd, 2012 at Sinying Hospital's Bei-Men Branch resulted in 13 elderly patient deaths and over 70 injuries. The heavy casualties were due in part to the serious condition of patients. Some patients on life-support machines were unable to move or be moved. This disaster highlights the issue of fire safety in small-scale hospitals that have transformed existing hospital space into special care environments for elderly patients. Compared with medical centers and general hospitals, these small-scale health facilities are ill equipped to deal properly with fire safety management and emergency response issues due to inadequate fire protection facilities, fire safety equipment, and human resources. Small-scale facilities that offer health care and medical services to mostly immobile patients face fire risks that differ significantly from general health care facilities. This paper focuses on fire risks in small-scale facilities and suggests a strategy for fire prevention and emergency response procedures, including countermeasures for fire risk assessment, management, and emergency response, in order to improve fire safety at these institutions in Taiwan.

Examining the relative effects of fire weather, suppression and fuel treatment on fire behaviour--a simulation study.

PubMed

Penman, T D; Collins, L; Price, O F; Bradstock, R A; Metcalf, S; Chong, D M O

2013-12-15

Large budgets are spent on both suppression and fuel treatments in order to reduce the risk of wildfires. There is little evidence regarding the relative contribution of fire weather, suppression and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfires. Here we undertake a simulation study in the Sydney Basin, Australia, to examine this question using a fire behaviour model (Phoenix Rapidfire). Results of the study indicate that fire behaviour is most strongly influenced by fire weather. Suppression has a greater influence on whether a fire reaches 5 ha in size compared to fuel treatments. In contrast, fuel treatments have a stronger effect on the fire size and maximum distance the fire travels. The study suggests that fire management agencies will receive additional benefits from fuel treatment if they are located in areas which suppression resources can respond rapidly and attempt to contain the fires. No combination of treatments contained all fires, and the proportion of uncontained fires increased under more severe fire weather when the greatest number of properties are lost. Our study highlights the importance of alternative management strategies to reduce the risk of property loss. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can private land conservation reduce wildfire risk to homes? A case study in San Diego County, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butsic, Van; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Bar-Massada, Avi

2017-01-01

The purchase of private land for conservation purposes is a common way to prevent the exploitation of sensitive ecological areas. However, private land conservation can also provide other benefits, one of these being natural hazard reduction. Here, we investigated the impacts of private land conservation on fire risk to homes in San Diego County, California. We coupled an econometric land use change model with a model that estimates the probability of house loss due to fire in order to compare fire risk at the county and municipality scale under alternative private land purchasing schemes and over a 20 year time horizon. We found that conservation purchases could reduce fire risk on this landscape, and the amount of risk reduction was related to the targeting approach used to choose which parcels were conserved. Conservation land purchases that targeted parcels designated as high fire hazard resulted in lower fire risk to homes than purchases that targeted low costs or high likelihood to subdivide. This result was driven by (1) preventing home placement in fire prone areas and (2) taking land off the market, and hence increasing development densities in other areas. These results raise the possibility that resource conservation and fire hazard reduction may benefit from combining efforts. With adequate planning, future conservation purchases could have synergistic effects beyond just protecting ecologically sensitive areas.

Compressed natural gas bus safety: a quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Samuel; Modarres, Mohammad

2005-04-01

This study assesses the fire safety risks associated with compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle systems, comprising primarily a typical school bus and supporting fuel infrastructure. The study determines the sensitivity of the results to variations in component failure rates and consequences of fire events. The components and subsystems that contribute most to fire safety risk are determined. Finally, the results are compared to fire risks of the present generation of diesel-fueled school buses. Direct computation of the safety risks associated with diesel-powered vehicles is possible because these are mature technologies for which historical performance data are available. Because of limited experience, fatal accident data for CNG bus fleets are minimal. Therefore, this study uses the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach to model and predict fire safety risk of CNG buses. Generic failure data, engineering judgments, and assumptions are used in this study. This study predicts the mean fire fatality risk for typical CNG buses as approximately 0.23 fatalities per 100-million miles for all people involved, including bus passengers. The study estimates mean values of 0.16 fatalities per 100-million miles for bus passengers only. Based on historical data, diesel school bus mean fire fatality risk is 0.091 and 0.0007 per 100-million miles for all people and bus passengers, respectively. One can therefore conclude that CNG buses are more prone to fire fatality risk by 2.5 times that of diesel buses, with the bus passengers being more at risk by over two orders of magnitude. The study estimates a mean fire risk frequency of 2.2 x 10(-5) fatalities/bus per year. The 5% and 95% uncertainty bounds are 9.1 x 10(-6) and 4.0 x 10(-5), respectively. The risk result was found to be affected most by failure rates of pressure relief valves, CNG cylinders, and fuel piping.

Geographic Mapping as a Tool for Identifying Communities at High Risk for Fires.

PubMed

Fahey, Erin; Lehna, Carlee; Hanchette, Carol; Coty, Mary-Beth

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the sample of older adults in a home fire safety (HFS) study captured participants living in the areas at highest risk for fire occurrence. The secondary aim was to identify high risk areas to focus future HFS interventions. Geographic information systems software was used to identify census tracts where study participants resided. Census data for these tracts were compared with participant data based on seven risk factors (ie, age greater than 65 years, nonwhite race, below high school education, low socioeconomic status, rented housing, year home built, home value) previously identified in a fire risk model. The distribution of participants and census tracts among risk categories determined how well higher risk census tracts were sampled. Of the 46 census tracts where the HFS intervention was implemented, 78% (n = 36) were identified as high or severe risk according to the fire risk model. Study participants' means for median annual family income (P < .0001) and median home value (P < .0001) were significantly lower than the census tract means (n = 46), indicating participants were at higher risk of fire occurrence. Of the 92 census tracts identified as high or severe risk in the entire county, the study intervention was implemented in 39% (n = 36), indicating 56 census tracts as potential areas for future HFS interventions. The Geographic information system-based fire risk model is an underutilized but important tool for practice that allows community agencies to develop, plan, and evaluate their outreach efforts and ensure the most effective use of scarce resources.

Estimating vegetation dryness to optimize fire risk assessment with spot vegetation satellite data in savanna ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verbesselt, J.; Somers, B.; Lhermitte, S.; van Aardt, J.; Jonckheere, I.; Coppin, P.

2005-10-01

The lack of information on vegetation dryness prior to the use of fire as a management tool often leads to a significant deterioration of the savanna ecosystem. This paper therefore evaluated the capacity of SPOT VEGETATION time-series to monitor the vegetation dryness (i.e., vegetation moisture content per vegetation amount) in order to optimize fire risk assessment in the savanna ecosystem of Kruger National Park in South Africa. The integrated Relative Vegetation Index approach (iRVI) to quantify the amount of herbaceous biomass at the end of the rain season and the Accumulated Relative Normalized Difference vegetation index decrement (ARND) related to vegetation moisture content were selected. The iRVI and ARND related to vegetation amount and moisture content, respectively, were combined in order to monitor vegetation dryness and optimize fire risk assessment in the savanna ecosystems. In situ fire activity data was used to evaluate the significance of the iRVI and ARND to monitor vegetation dryness for fire risk assessment. Results from the binary logistic regression analysis confirmed that the assessment of fire risk was optimized by integration of both the vegetation quantity (iRVI) and vegetation moisture content (ARND) as statistically significant explanatory variables. Consequently, the integrated use of both iRVI and ARND to monitor vegetation dryness provides a more suitable tool for fire management and suppression compared to other traditional satellite-based fire risk assessment methods, only related to vegetation moisture content.

Risk factors for rural residential fires.

PubMed

Allareddy, Veerasathpurush; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Yang, Jingzhen; Zwerling, Craig

2007-01-01

Rural households report high fire-related mortality and injury rates, but few studies have examined the risk factors for fires. This study aims to identify occupant and household characteristics that are associated with residential fires in a rural cohort. Of 1,005 households contacted in a single rural county, 691 (68.8%) agreed to participate. One household with missing information on a reported fire was excluded from the analysis. We used logistic regression to examine the independent association of occupant and household characteristics with reported fires, controlling for years lived in the residence. We also examined the association between the occurrence of previous fires and the adoption of safety measures. A total of 78 (11.3%) households reported a residential fire. Occupant characteristics that were associated with significantly higher odds of reported fires included the presence of an occupant with alcohol problems (OR = 1.82, 95% CI = 1.01-3.28) and being married (OR = 2.11, 95% CI = 1.14-3.91). Rural farm households were associated with significantly higher odds (OR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.01-2.93) of reporting a fire when compared to residences in towns, after controlling for all other occupant and household characteristics. The presence of a fire extinguisher (OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.10-3.64) was the only fire safety measure that had a statistically significant association with reported fire. Rural farm households report higher incidences of fire when compared to households located in towns. Experiencing a fire is not associated with an increased likelihood of adopting safety measures to prevent injuries once a fire has started.

Investigating the association between weather conditions, calendar events and socio-economic patterns with trends in fire incidence: an Australian case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corcoran, Jonathan; Higgs, Gary; Rohde, David; Chhetri, Prem

2011-06-01

Fires in urban areas can cause significant economic, physical and psychological damage. Despite this, there has been a comparative lack of research into the spatial and temporal analysis of fire incidence in urban contexts. In this paper, we redress this gap through an exploration of the association of fire incidence to weather, calendar events and socio-economic characteristics in South-East Queensland, Australia using innovative technique termed the quad plot. Analysing trends in five fire incident types, including malicious false alarms (hoax calls), residential buildings, secondary (outdoor), vehicle and suspicious fires, results suggest that risk associated with all is greatly increased during school holidays and during long weekends. For all fire types the lowest risk of incidence was found to occur between one and six a.m. It was also found that there was a higher fire incidence in socially disadvantaged neighbourhoods and there was some evidence to suggest that there may be a compounding impact of high temperatures in such areas. We suggest that these findings may be used to guide the operations of fire services through spatial and temporal targeting to better utilise finite resources, help mitigate risk and reduce casualties.

Lagged cumulative spruce budworm defoliation affects the risk of fire ignition in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

James, Patrick M A; Robert, Louis-Etienne; Wotton, B Mike; Martell, David L; Fleming, Richard A

2017-03-01

Detailed understanding of forest disturbance interactions is needed for effective forecasting, modelling, and management. Insect outbreaks are a significant forest disturbance that alters forest structure as well as the distribution and connectivity of combustible fuels at broad spatial scales. The effect of insect outbreaks on fire activity is an important but contentious issue with significant policy consequences. The eastern spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) is a native defoliating insect in eastern North America whose periodic outbreaks create large patches of dead fir and spruce trees. Of particular concern to fire and forest managers is whether these patches represent an increased fire risk, if so, for how long, and how the relationship between defoliation and fire risk varies through space and time. Previous work suggests a temporary increase in flammability in budworm-killed forests, but regional and seasonal variability in these relationships has not been examined. Using an extensive database on historical lightning-caused fire ignitions and spruce budworm defoliation between 1963 and 2000, we assess the relative importance of cumulative defoliation and fire weather on the probability of ignition in Ontario, Canada. We modeled fire ignition using a generalized additive logistic regression model that accounts for temporal autocorrelation in fire weather. We compared two ecoregions in eastern Ontario (Abitibi Plains) and western Ontario (Lake of the Woods) that differ in terms of climate, geomorphology, and forest composition. We found that defoliation has the potential to both increase and decrease the probability of ignition depending on the time scale, ecoregion, and season examined. Most importantly, we found that lagged spruce budworm defoliation (8-10 yr) increases the risk of fire ignition whereas recent defoliation (1 yr) can decrease this risk. We also found that historical defoliation has a greater influence on ignition risk during the spring than during the summer fire season. Given predicted increases in forest insect activity due to global change, these results represent important information for fire management agencies that can be used to refine existing models of fire risk. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Pre-wildfire management treatments interact with fire severity to have lasting effects on post-wildfire vegetation response

Treesearch

Kristen L. Shive; Carolyn H. Sieg; Peter Z. Fule

2013-01-01

Land managers are routinely applying fuel reduction treatments to mitigate the risk of severe, stand-replacing fire in ponderosa pine communities of the southwestern US. When these treatments are burned by wildfire they generally reduce fire severity, but less is known about how they influence post-wildfire vegetation recovery, as compared to pre-fire untreated areas....

[Forest fire risk assessment for China under different climate scenarios.

PubMed

Tian, Xiao Rui; Dai, Xuan; Wang, Ming Yu; Zhao, Feng Jun; Shu, Li Fu

2016-03-01

Forest fire risk depends on the hazard factors, affected body, and hazard prevention and reduction ability. The integrated risk assessment is the foundation for developing scientific fire mana-gement policies and carrying out the forest fire prevention measures. A forest fire risk assessment model and index system were established based on the classic natural disaster risk model and available data, and the model was used to assess the forest fire risks in past and future. The future climate scenario data included outputs from five global climate models (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M) for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Each component index of Fire Weather Index (FWI) system was calculated daily for each grid in 1987-2050 for the historical observations and future climate scenarios according to the maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, wind speed and daily precipitation. The results showed that areas with high and very high fire danger ratings in 1987-2010 accounted for 21.2% and 6.2%, respectively, which were distributed in Greater Xing'an Mountains and the Changbai Mountain area, most parts of Yunnan, and many fragment areas in southern China. The areas with high and very high burn possibilities were mainly distributed in the northeast and southwest region, accounting for 13.1% and 4.0%, respectively. Compared with the observation period, the areas with high and very high fire danger ratings in 2021-2050 would increase by 0.6%, 5.5%, 2.3%, and 3.5% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 respectively, and North China would show significant increase. The regions with high-risk forest fires would also increase due to climate change, with the most significant increase under RCP 8.5 scenario (+1.6%).

Human and biophysical influences on fire occurrence in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hawbaker, Todd J.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hammer, Roger B.; Keuler, Nicholas S.; Clayton, Murray K.

2013-01-01

National-scale analyses of fire occurrence are needed to prioritize fire policy and management activities across the United States. However, the drivers of national-scale patterns of fire occurrence are not well understood, and how the relative importance of human or biophysical factors varies across the country is unclear. Our research goal was to model the drivers of fire occurrence within ecoregions across the conterminous United States. We used generalized linear models to compare the relative influence of human, vegetation, climate, and topographic variables on fire occurrence in the United States, as measured by MODIS active fire detections collected between 2000 and 2006. We constructed models for all fires and for large fires only and generated predictive maps to quantify fire occurrence probabilities. Areas with high fire occurrence probabilities were widespread in the Southeast, and localized in the Mountain West, particularly in southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico. Probabilities for large-fire occurrence were generally lower, but hot spots existed in the western and south-central United States The probability of fire occurrence is a critical component of fire risk assessments, in addition to vegetation type, fire behavior, and the values at risk. Many of the hot spots we identified have extensive development in the wildland–urban interface and are near large metropolitan areas. Our results demonstrated that human variables were important predictors of both all fires and large fires and frequently exhibited nonlinear relationships. However, vegetation, climate, and topography were also significant variables in most ecoregions. If recent housing growth trends and fire occurrence patterns continue, these areas will continue to challenge policies and management efforts seeking to balance the risks generated by wildfires with the ecological benefits of fire.

Modeling Fire Occurrence at the City Scale: A Comparison between Geographically Weighted Regression and Global Linear Regression.

PubMed

Song, Chao; Kwan, Mei-Po; Zhu, Jiping

2017-04-08

An increasing number of fires are occurring with the rapid development of cities, resulting in increased risk for human beings and the environment. This study compares geographically weighted regression-based models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), which integrates spatial and temporal effects and global linear regression models (LM) for modeling fire risk at the city scale. The results show that the road density and the spatial distribution of enterprises have the strongest influences on fire risk, which implies that we should focus on areas where roads and enterprises are densely clustered. In addition, locations with a large number of enterprises have fewer fire ignition records, probably because of strict management and prevention measures. A changing number of significant variables across space indicate that heterogeneity mainly exists in the northern and eastern rural and suburban areas of Hefei city, where human-related facilities or road construction are only clustered in the city sub-centers. GTWR can capture small changes in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the variables while GWR and LM cannot. An approach that integrates space and time enables us to better understand the dynamic changes in fire risk. Thus governments can use the results to manage fire safety at the city scale.

Modeling Fire Occurrence at the City Scale: A Comparison between Geographically Weighted Regression and Global Linear Regression

PubMed Central

Song, Chao; Kwan, Mei-Po; Zhu, Jiping

2017-01-01

An increasing number of fires are occurring with the rapid development of cities, resulting in increased risk for human beings and the environment. This study compares geographically weighted regression-based models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), which integrates spatial and temporal effects and global linear regression models (LM) for modeling fire risk at the city scale. The results show that the road density and the spatial distribution of enterprises have the strongest influences on fire risk, which implies that we should focus on areas where roads and enterprises are densely clustered. In addition, locations with a large number of enterprises have fewer fire ignition records, probably because of strict management and prevention measures. A changing number of significant variables across space indicate that heterogeneity mainly exists in the northern and eastern rural and suburban areas of Hefei city, where human-related facilities or road construction are only clustered in the city sub-centers. GTWR can capture small changes in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the variables while GWR and LM cannot. An approach that integrates space and time enables us to better understand the dynamic changes in fire risk. Thus governments can use the results to manage fire safety at the city scale. PMID:28397745

Can landscape-level ecological restoration influence fire risk? A spatially-explicit assessment of a northern temperate-southern boreal forest landscape

Treesearch

Douglas J. Shinneman; Brian J. Palik; Meredith W. Cornett

2012-01-01

Management strategies to restore forest landscapes are often designed to concurrently reduce fire risk. However, the compatibility of these two objectives is not always clear, and uncoordinated management among landowners may have unintended consequences. We used a forest landscape simulation model to compare the effects of contemporary management and hypothetical...

Fire fit: assessing comprehensive fitness and injury risk in the fire service.

PubMed

Poplin, Gerald S; Roe, Denise J; Burgess, Jefferey L; Peate, Wayne F; Harris, Robin B

2016-02-01

This study sought to develop a comprehensive measure of fitness that is predictive of injury risk and can be used in the fire service to assess individual-level health and fit-for-duty status. A retrospective occupational cohort of 799 career fire service employees was observed over the years 2005-2009. An equally weighted score for comprehensive fitness was calculated based on cardiovascular fitness, muscular strength, endurance, flexibility, and body composition. Repeated measures survival analyses were used to estimate the risk of any injury, sprain or strain, and exercise-related injuries in relation to comprehensive fitness. A well-distributed comprehensive fitness score was developed to distinguish three tiers of overall fitness status. Intraclass correlations identified flexibility, total grip strength, percent body fat, and resting heart rate as the most reliable fitness metrics, while push-ups, sit-ups, and aerobic capacity demonstrated poor reliability. In general, individuals with a lower comprehensive fitness status had an increased injury risk of injury as compared to the most fit individuals. The risk of any injury was 1.82 (95% CI 1.06-3.11) times as likely for the least fit individuals, as compared to individuals in the top fire fitness category, increasing to 2.90 (95% CI 1.48-5.66) when restricted to sprains and strains. This 5-year analysis of clinical occupational health assessments enabled the development of a relevant metric for relating comprehensive fitness with the risk of injury. Results were consistent with previous studies focused on cardiorespiratory fitness, but also less susceptible to inter-individual variability of discrete measurements.

Effects of Mountain Pine Beetle on Fuels and Expected Fire Behavior in Lodgepole Pine Forests, Colorado, USA

PubMed Central

Schoennagel, Tania; Veblen, Thomas T.; Negron, José F.; Smith, Jeremy M.

2012-01-01

In Colorado and southern Wyoming, mountain pine beetle (MPB) has affected over 1.6 million ha of predominantly lodgepole pine forests, raising concerns about effects of MPB-caused mortality on subsequent wildfire risk and behavior. Using empirical data we modeled potential fire behavior across a gradient of wind speeds and moisture scenarios in Green stands compared three stages since MPB attack (Red [1–3 yrs], Grey [4–10 yrs], and Old-MPB [∼30 yrs]). MPB killed 50% of the trees and 70% of the basal area in Red and Grey stages. Across moisture scenarios, canopy fuel moisture was one-third lower in Red and Grey stages compared to the Green stage, making active crown fire possible at lower wind speeds and less extreme moisture conditions. More-open canopies and high loads of large surface fuels due to treefall in Grey and Old-MPB stages significantly increased surface fireline intensities, facilitating active crown fire at lower wind speeds (>30–55 km/hr) across all moisture scenarios. Not accounting for low foliar moistures in Red and Grey stages, and large surface fuels in Grey and Old-MPB stages, underestimates the occurrence of active crown fire. Under extreme burning conditions, minimum wind speeds for active crown fire were 25–35 km/hr lower for Red, Grey and Old-MPB stands compared to Green. However, if transition to crown fire occurs (outside the stand, or within the stand via ladder fuels or wind gusts >65 km/hr), active crown fire would be sustained at similar wind speeds, suggesting observed fire behavior may not be qualitatively different among MPB stages under extreme burning conditions. Overall, the risk (probability) of active crown fire appears elevated in MPB-affected stands, but the predominant fire hazard (crown fire) is similar across MPB stages and is characteristic of lodgepole pine forests where extremely dry, gusty weather conditions are key factors in determining fire behavior. PMID:22272268

Birth wind and fire: raising awareness to operating room fires during delivery.

PubMed

Wolf, Omer; Weissman, Oren; Harats, Moti; Farber, Nimrod; Stavrou, Demetris; Tessone, Ariel; Zilinsky, Isaac; Winkler, Eyal; Haik, Josef

2013-09-01

We researched whether the obstetric operating room (OR) qualified as a fire-risk environment so as to take preventive measures accordingly. We analyzed a series of iatrogenic burns inflicted during birth by collecting clinical data and comparing it with known OR fire risk factors and with other factors that repeated in all cases in search of unique characteristics of the obstetric OR. All three cases shared in common the same type of oxygen-rich open ventilation system, alcohol-based prepping solution, and the hastiness of cesarean delivery while spontaneous vaginal delivery was already in progress. The obstetric OR is, as suspected, a fire-prone zone in more ways than the regular OR. Therefore, preventive measures should be undertaken and awareness for the possibility for such occurrences should be raised.

The Pictorial Fire Stroop: a measure of processing bias for fire-related stimuli.

PubMed

Gallagher-Duffy, Joanne; MacKay, Sherri; Duffy, Jim; Sullivan-Thomas, Meara; Peterson-Badali, Michele

2009-11-01

Fire interest is a risk factor for firesetting. This study tested whether a fire-specific emotional Stroop task can effectively measure an information-processing bias for fire-related stimuli. Clinic-referred and nonreferred adolescents (aged 13-16 years) completed a pictorial "Fire Stroop," as well as a self-report fire interest questionnaire and several control tasks. Results showed (a) comparatively greater fire-specific attentional bias among referred adolescent firesetters, (b) a negative relationship between Fire Stroop attentional bias and self-reported fire interest, and (c) positive correspondence between Fire Stroop attentional bias and self-reported firesetting frequency. These findings suggest that instruments that measure an automatic bias for fire-specific stimuli may usefully supplement self-report measures in the assessment and understanding of firesetting behavior.

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management.

PubMed

Marchal, Jean; Cumming, Steve G; McIntire, Eliot J B

2017-01-01

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the consequences of climate warming on fire activity, and could be misleading. Assessments of vulnerability to climate change, and subsequent adaptation strategies, are directly dependent on integrated ecological forecasts. Thus, we stress the need to explicitly incorporate land-cover's direct effects and feedbacks in simulation models of coupled climate-fire-fuels systems.

Human influence on the abundance and connectivity of high-risk fuels in mixed forests of northern Wisconsin, USA

Treesearch

Brian R. Sturtevant; Patrick A. Zoller; Eric J. Gustafson; David T. Cleland

2004-01-01

Though fire is considered a "natural" disturbance, humans heavily influence modern wildfire regimes. Humans influence fires both directly, by igniting and suppressing fires, and indirectly, by either altering vegetation, climate, or both. We used the LANDIS disturbance and succession model to compare the relative importance of a direct human influence (...

Human influence on the abundance and connectivity of high-risk fuels in mixed forests of northern Wisconsin, USA

Treesearch

Brian R. Sturtevant; Patrick A. Zollner; Eric J. Gustafson; David T. Cleland

2004-01-01

Though fire is considered a "natural" disturbance, humans heavily influence modern wildfire regimes. Humans influence fires both directly, by igniting and suppressing fires, and indirectly, by either altering vegetation, climate, or both. We used the LANDIS disturbance and succession model to compare the relative importance of a direct human influence...

Comparing production function models for wildfire risk analysis in the wildland-urban interface

Treesearch

D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2005-01-01

Wildfires create damages in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) that total hundreds of millions of dollars annually in the United States. Understanding how fires are produced in built-up areas near and within fire prone landscapes requires evaluating and quantifling the roles that humans play in fire regimes. We outline a typology of wildfire production functions (WPFs...

Factor contribution to fire occurrence, size, and burn probability in a subtropical coniferous forest in East China.

PubMed

Ye, Tao; Wang, Yao; Guo, Zhixing; Li, Yijia

2017-01-01

The contribution of factors including fuel type, fire-weather conditions, topography and human activity to fire regime attributes (e.g. fire occurrence, size distribution and severity) has been intensively discussed. The relative importance of those factors in explaining the burn probability (BP), which is critical in terms of fire risk management, has been insufficiently addressed. Focusing on a subtropical coniferous forest with strong human disturbance in East China, our main objective was to evaluate and compare the relative importance of fuel composition, topography, and human activity for fire occurrence, size and BP. Local BP distribution was derived with stochastic fire simulation approach using detailed historical fire data (1990-2010) and forest-resource survey results, based on which our factor contribution analysis was carried out. Our results indicated that fuel composition had the greatest relative importance in explaining fire occurrence and size, but human activity explained most of the variance in BP. This implies that the influence of human activity is amplified through the process of overlapping repeated ignition and spreading events. This result emphasizes the status of strong human disturbance in local fire processes. It further confirms the need for a holistic perspective on factor contribution to fire likelihood, rather than focusing on individual fire regime attributes, for the purpose of fire risk management.

Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolden, Crystal A.; Weigel, Timothy J.

2007-01-01

Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but models are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a fuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire risk based on management actions.

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management

PubMed Central

Marchal, Jean; Cumming, Steve G.; McIntire, Eliot J. B.

2017-01-01

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the consequences of climate warming on fire activity, and could be misleading. Assessments of vulnerability to climate change, and subsequent adaptation strategies, are directly dependent on integrated ecological forecasts. Thus, we stress the need to explicitly incorporate land-cover’s direct effects and feedbacks in simulation models of coupled climate–fire–fuels systems. PMID:28609467

A method for mapping fire hazard and risk across multiple scales and its application in fire management

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Stacy A. Drury; Eva C. Karau; Paul F. Hessburg; Keith M. Reynolds

2010-01-01

This paper presents modeling methods for mapping fire hazard and fire risk using a research model called FIREHARM (FIRE Hazard and Risk Model) that computes common measures of fire behavior, fire danger, and fire effects to spatially portray fire hazard over space. FIREHARM can compute a measure of risk associated with the distribution of these measures over time using...

Temperate and boreal forest mega-fires: characteristics and challenges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stephens, Scott L.; Burrows, Neil; Buyantuyev, Alexander; Gray, Robert W.; Keane, Robert E.; Kubian, Rick; Liu, Shirong; Seijo, Francisco; Shu, Lifu; Tolhurst, Kevin G.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.

2014-01-01

Mega-fires are often defined according to their size and intensity but are more accurately described by their socioeconomic impacts. Three factors – climate change, fire exclusion, and antecedent disturbance, collectively referred to as the “mega-fire triangle” – likely contribute to today's mega-fires. Some characteristics of mega-fires may emulate historical fire regimes and can therefore sustain healthy fire-prone ecosystems, but other attributes decrease ecosystem resiliency. A good example of a program that seeks to mitigate mega-fires is located in Western Australia, where prescribed burning reduces wildfire intensity while conserving ecosystems. Crown-fire-adapted ecosystems are likely at higher risk of frequent mega-fires as a result of climate change, as compared with other ecosystems once subject to frequent less severe fires. Fire and forest managers should recognize that mega-fires will be a part of future wildland fire regimes and should develop strategies to reduce their undesired impacts.

Forest fire risk assessment-an integrated approach based on multicriteria evaluation.

PubMed

Goleiji, Elham; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Khorasani, Nematollah; Monavari, Seyed Masoud

2017-11-06

The present study deals with application of the weighted linear combination method for zoning of forest fire risk in Dohezar and Sehezar region of Mazandaran province in northern Iran. In this study, the effective criteria for fires were identified by the Delphi method, and these included ecological and socioeconomic parameters. In this regard, the first step comprised of digital layers; the required data were provided from databases, related centers, and field data collected in the region. Then, the map of criteria was digitized in a geographic information system, and all criteria and indexes were normalized by fuzzy logic. After that, the geographic information system (GIS 10.3) was integrated with the Weighted Linear Combination and the Analytical Network Process, to produce zonation of the forest fire risk map in the Dohezar and Sehezar region. In order to analyze accuracy of the evaluation, the results obtained from the study were compared to records of former fire incidents in the region. This was done using the Kappa coefficient test and a receiver operating characteristic curve. The model showing estimations for forest fire risk explained that the prepared map had accuracy of 90% determined by the Kappa coefficient test and the value of 0.924 by receiver operating characteristic. These results showed that the prepared map had high accuracy and efficacy.

A comparative risk assessment framework for wildland fire management: the 2010 cohesive strategy science report

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Alan A. Ager; Matthew P. Thompson; Mark A. Finney; Danny C. Lee; Thomas M. Quigley; Charles W. McHugh; Karin L. Riley; Julie M. Gilbertson-Day

2011-01-01

The FLAME Act of 2009 requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service and the U.S. Department of Interior to submit to Congress a Cohesive Wildfire Management Strategy. In this report, we explore the general science available for a risk-based approach to fire and fuels management and suggest analyses that may be applied at multiple scales to inform...

Using Probability of Exceedance to Compare the Resource Risk of Renewable and Gas-Fired Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark

Of the myriad risks surrounding long-term investments in power plants, resource risk is one of the most difficult to mitigate, and is also perhaps the risk that most-clearly distinguishes renewable generation from natural gas-fired generation. For renewable generators like wind and solar projects, resource risk manifests as a quantity risk—i.e., the risk that the quantity of wind and insolation will be less than expected.i For gas-fired generators (i.e., a combined-cycle gas turbine or “CCGT”), resource risk manifests primarily as a price risk—i.e., the risk that natural gas will cost more than expected. Most often, resource risk—and natural gas price riskmore » in particular—falls disproportionately on utility ratepayers, who are typically not well-equipped to manage this risk. As such, it is incumbent upon utilities, regulators, and policymakers to ensure that resource risk is taken into consideration when making or approving resource decisions, or enacting policies that influence the development of the electricity sector more broadly.« less

Factor contribution to fire occurrence, size, and burn probability in a subtropical coniferous forest in East China

PubMed Central

Guo, Zhixing; Li, Yijia

2017-01-01

The contribution of factors including fuel type, fire-weather conditions, topography and human activity to fire regime attributes (e.g. fire occurrence, size distribution and severity) has been intensively discussed. The relative importance of those factors in explaining the burn probability (BP), which is critical in terms of fire risk management, has been insufficiently addressed. Focusing on a subtropical coniferous forest with strong human disturbance in East China, our main objective was to evaluate and compare the relative importance of fuel composition, topography, and human activity for fire occurrence, size and BP. Local BP distribution was derived with stochastic fire simulation approach using detailed historical fire data (1990–2010) and forest-resource survey results, based on which our factor contribution analysis was carried out. Our results indicated that fuel composition had the greatest relative importance in explaining fire occurrence and size, but human activity explained most of the variance in BP. This implies that the influence of human activity is amplified through the process of overlapping repeated ignition and spreading events. This result emphasizes the status of strong human disturbance in local fire processes. It further confirms the need for a holistic perspective on factor contribution to fire likelihood, rather than focusing on individual fire regime attributes, for the purpose of fire risk management. PMID:28207837

Health Risks of Nuclear Power.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohen, Bernard L.

1978-01-01

Deals with the wastes generated in nuclear power plants and the health risks involved as compared to those of wastes generated by coal-fired plants. Concludes that the risks of nuclear power plants are many times smaller than the risks from alternative energy resources. (GA)

Applications of Principled Search Methods in Climate Influences and Mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glymour, Clark

2005-01-01

Forest and grass fires cause economic losses in the billions of dollars in the U.S. alone. In addition, boreal forests constitute a large carbon store; it has been estimated that, were no burning to occur, an additional 7 gigatons of carbon would be sequestered in boreal soils each century. Effective wildfire suppression requires anticipation of locales and times for which wildfire is most probable, preferably with a two to four week forecast, so that limited resources can be efficiently deployed. The United States Forest Service (USFS), and other experts and agencies have developed several measures of fire risk combining physical principles and expert judgment, and have used them in automated procedures for forecasting fire risk. Forecasting accuracies for some fire risk indices in combination with climate and other variables have been estimated for specific locations, with the value of fire risk index variables assessed by their statistical significance in regressions. In other cases, the MAPSS forecasts [23, 241 for example, forecasting accuracy has been estimated only by simulated data. We describe alternative forecasting methods that predict fire probability by locale and time using statistical or machine learning procedures trained on historical data, and we give comparative assessments of their forecasting accuracy for one fire season year, April- October, 2003, for all U.S. Forest Service lands. Aside from providing an accuracy baseline for other forecasting methods, the results illustrate the interdependence between the statistical significance of prediction variables and the forecasting method used.

Prescribed fires as ecological surrogates for wildfires: A stream and riparian perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arkle, R.S.; Pilliod, D.S.

2010-01-01

Forest managers use prescribed fire to reduce wildfire risk and to provide resource benefits, yet little information is available on whether prescribed fires can function as ecological surrogates for wildfire in fire-prone landscapes. Information on impacts and benefits of this management tool on stream and riparian ecosystems is particularly lacking. We used a beyond-BACI (Before, After, Control, Impact) design to investigate the effects of a prescribed fire on a stream ecosystem and compared these findings to similar data collected after wildfire. For 3 years after prescribed fire treatment, we found no detectable changes in periphyton, macroinvertebrates, amphibians, fish, and riparian and stream habitats compared to data collected over the same time period in four unburned reference streams. Based on changes in fuels, plant and litter cover, and tree scorching, this prescribed fire was typical of those being implemented in ponderosa pine forests throughout the western U.S. However, we found that the extent and severity of riparian vegetation burned was substantially lower after prescribed fire compared to nearby wildfires. The early-season prescribed fire did not mimic the riparian or in-stream ecological effects observed following a nearby wildfire, even in catchments with burn extents similar to the prescribed fire. Little information exists on the effects of long-term fire exclusion from riparian forests, but a "prescribed fire regime" of repeatedly burning upland forests while excluding fire in adjacent riparian forests may eliminate an important natural disturbance from riparian and stream habitats.

Gis-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Forest Fire Risk Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akay, A. E.; Erdoğan, A.

2017-11-01

The forested areas along the coastal zone of the Mediterranean region in Turkey are classified as first-degree fire sensitive areas. Forest fires are major environmental disaster that affects the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Besides, forest fires result in important economic losses and even threaten human lives. Thus, it is critical to determine the forested areas with fire risks and thereby minimize the damages on forest resources by taking necessary precaution measures in these areas. The risk of forest fire can be assessed based on various factors such as forest vegetation structures (tree species, crown closure, tree stage), topographic features (slope and aspect), and climatic parameters (temperature, wind). In this study, GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method was used to generate forest fire risk map. The study was implemented in the forested areas within Yayla Forest Enterprise Chiefs at Dursunbey Forest Enterprise Directorate which is classified as first degree fire sensitive area. In the solution process, "extAhp 2.0" plug-in running Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in ArcGIS 10.4.1 was used to categorize study area under five fire risk classes: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The results indicated that 23.81 % of the area was of extreme risk, while 25.81 % was of high risk. The result indicated that the most effective criterion was tree species, followed by tree stages. The aspect had the least effective criterion on forest fire risk. It was revealed that GIS techniques integrated with MCDA methods are effective tools to quickly estimate forest fire risk at low cost. The integration of these factors into GIS can be very useful to determine forested areas with high fire risk and also to plan forestry management after fire.

How well does the Post-fire Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) really work?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robichaud, Peter; Elliot, William; Lewis, Sarah; Miller, Mary Ellen

2016-04-01

The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective postfire erosion mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) was developed to assist post fire assessment teams identify high erosion risk areas and effectiveness of various mitigation treatments to reduce that risk. ERMiT is a web-based application that uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) technology to estimate erosion, in probabilistic terms, on burned and recovering forest, range, and chaparral lands with and without the application of mitigation treatments. User inputs are processed by ERMiT to combine rain event variability with spatial and temporal variabilities of hillslope burn severity and soil properties which are then used as WEPP inputs. Since 2007, the model has been used in making hundreds of land management decisions in the US and elsewhere. We use eight published field study sites in the Western US to compare ERMiT predictions to observed hillslope erosion rates. Most sites experience only a few rainfall events that produced runoff and sediment except for a California site with a Mediterranean climate. When hillslope erosion occurred, significant correlations occurred between the observed hillslope erosion and those predicted by ERMiT. Significant correlation occurred for most mitigation treatments as well as the five recovery years. These model validation results suggest reasonable estimates of probabilistic post-fire hillslope sediment delivery when compared to observation.

Forest fire risk zonation mapping using remote sensing technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, Sunil; Arora, M. K.

2006-12-01

Forest fires cause major losses to forest cover and disturb the ecological balance in our region. Rise in temperature during summer season causing increased dryness, increased activity of human beings in the forest areas, and the type of forest cover in the Garhwal Himalayas are some of the reasons that lead to forest fires. Therefore, generation of forest fire risk maps becomes necessary so that preventive measures can be taken at appropriate time. These risk maps shall indicate the zonation of the areas which are in very high, high, medium and low risk zones with regard to forest fire in the region. In this paper, an attempt has been made to generate the forest fire risk maps based on remote sensing data and other geographical variables responsible for the occurrence of fire. These include altitude, temperature and soil variations. Key thematic data layers pertaining to these variables have been generated using various techniques. A rule-based approach has been used and implemented in GIS environment to estimate fuel load and fuel index leading to the derivation of fire risk zonation index and subsequently to fire risk zonation maps. The fire risk maps thus generated have been validated on the ground for forest types as well as for forest fire risk areas. These maps would help the state forest departments in prioritizing their strategy for combating forest fires particularly during the fire seasons.

Modeling Payload Stowage Impacts on Fire Risks On-Board the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anton, Kellie e.; Brown, Patrick F.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this presentation is to determine the risks of fire on-board the ISS due to non-standard stowage. ISS stowage is constantly being reexamined for optimality. Non-standard stowage involves stowing items outside of rack drawers, and fire risk is a key concern and is heavily mitigated. A Methodology is needed to account for fire risk due to non-standard stowage to capture the risk. The contents include: 1) Fire Risk Background; 2) General Assumptions; 3) Modeling Techniques; 4) Event Sequence Diagram (ESD); 5) Qualitative Fire Analysis; 6) Sample Qualitative Results for Fire Risk; 7) Qualitative Stowage Analysis; 8) Sample Qualitative Results for Non-Standard Stowage; and 9) Quantitative Analysis Basic Event Data.

Assessing European wild fire vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oehler, F.; Oliveira, S.; Barredo, J. I.; Camia, A.; Ayanz, J. San Miguel; Pettenella, D.; Mavsar, R.

2012-04-01

Wild fire vulnerability is a measure of potential socio-economic damage caused by a fire in a specific area. As such it is an important component of long-term fire risk management, helping policy-makers take informed decisions about adequate expenditures for fire prevention and suppression, and to target those regions at highest risk. This paper presents a first approach to assess wild fire vulnerability at the European level. A conservative approach was chosen that assesses the cost of restoring the previous land cover after a potential fire. Based on the CORINE Land Cover, a restoration cost was established for each land cover class at country level, and an average restoration time was assigned according to the recovery capacity of the land cover. The damage caused by fire was then assessed by discounting the cost of restoring the previous land cover over the restoration period. Three different vulnerability scenarios were considered assuming low, medium and high fire severity causing different levels of damage. Over Europe, the potential damage of wild land fires ranges from 10 - 13, 732 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for low fire severity, 32 - 45,772 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for medium fire severity and 54 - 77,812 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for high fire severity. The least vulnerable are natural grasslands, moors and heathland and sclerophyllous vegetation, while the highest cost occurs for restoring broad-leaved forest. Preliminary validation comparing these estimates with official damage assessments for past fires shows reasonable results. The restoration cost approach allows for a straightforward, data extensive assessment of fire vulnerability at European level. A disadvantage is the inherent simplification of the evaluation procedure with the underestimation of non-markets goods and services. Thus, a second approach has been developed, valuing individual wild land goods and services and assessing their annual flow which is lost for a certain period of time in case of a fire event. However, due to limitations in data availability, this approach of environmental accounting is not fully implemented yet. Keywords: fire vulnerability, damage assessment, land cover restoration, long-term fire risk, European scale

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-08-13

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projectedmore » costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.« less

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Forest Fire Risk and Danger Using LANDSAT Imagery.

PubMed

Saglam, Bülent; Bilgili, Ertugrul; Dincdurmaz, Bahar; Kadiogulari, Ali Ihsan; Kücük, Ömer

2008-06-20

Computing fire danger and fire risk on a spatio-temporal scale is of crucial importance in fire management planning, and in the simulation of fire growth and development across a landscape. However, due to the complex nature of forests, fire risk and danger potential maps are considered one of the most difficult thematic layers to build up. Remote sensing and digital terrain data have been introduced for efficient discrete classification of fire risk and fire danger potential. In this study, two time-series data of Landsat imagery were used for determining spatio-temporal change of fire risk and danger potential in Korudag forest planning unit in northwestern Turkey. The method comprised the following two steps: (1) creation of indices of the factors influencing fire risk and danger; (2) evaluation of spatio-temporal changes in fire risk and danger of given areas using remote sensing as a quick and inexpensive means and determining the pace of forest cover change. Fire risk and danger potential indices were based on species composition, stand crown closure, stand development stage, insolation, slope and, proximity of agricultural lands to forest and distance from settlement areas. Using the indices generated, fire risk and danger maps were produced for the years 1987 and 2000. Spatio-temporal analyses were then realized based on the maps produced. Results obtained from the study showed that the use of Landsat imagery provided a valuable characterization and mapping of vegetation structure and type with overall classification accuracy higher than 83%.

Fire fatality and alcohol intake: analysis of key risk factors.

PubMed

Bruck, Dorothy; Ball, Michelle; Thomas, Ian R

2011-09-01

After a brief review of the literature on the role of alcohol in residential fire deaths, a comparison of different risk factors for residential fire fatality was undertaken by closely analyzing the circumstances of fire victims as a function of alcohol intake. Analyses were based on Australian coroners' fire fatality records for the state of Victoria (1998-2006) and considered demographic, behavioral, and environmental factors for the 95 adult fire victims who were tested for alcohol (64 male, 31 female). Most (58%) had a positive blood alcohol concentration (BAC) test, with 31% of the total sample having a BAC of more than 0.20 gm per 100 ml. Odds ratio analyses showed that four variables were significantly more associated with victims who had consumed alcohol compared with sober victims. In descending odds ratio order, these variables were as follows: (a) being aged 18-60 years, (b) involving smoking materials (e.g. cigarettes, pipes), (c) having no conditions preventing escape, and (d) being male. An important new finding is that fire fatalities with positive BAC levels were more than three times less likely to have their clothing alight or exits blocked than sober fire victims. The risk of dying in a fire for alcohol-affected people who are capable of being alerted and escaping may be reduced if they can be alerted more quickly and effectively. Suitable measures for improving smoke alarms via interlinking and the use of an alarm signal demonstrated to be more effective at waking sleepers, including those who are alcohol affected, are discussed.

Risk-based Spacecraft Fire Safety Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Apostolakis, G.; Catton, I.; Issacci, F.; Paulos, T.; Jones, S.; Paxton, K.; Paul, M.

1992-01-01

Viewgraphs on risk-based spacecraft fire safety experiments are presented. Spacecraft fire risk can never be reduced to a zero probability. Probabilistic risk assessment is a tool to reduce risk to an acceptable level.

Development of a model to predict ash transport and water pollution risk in fire-affected environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neris, Jonay; Elliot, William J.; Doerr, Stefan H.; Robichaud, Peter R.

2017-04-01

An estimated that 15% of the world's population lives in volcanic areas. Recent catastrophic erosion events following wildfires in volcanic terrain have highlighted the geomorphological instability of this soil type under disturbed conditions and steep slopes. Predicting the hydrological and erosional response of this soils in the post-fire period is the first step to design and develop adequate actions to minimize risks in the post-fire period. In this work we apply, for the first time, the Water Erosion Prediction Project model for predicting erosion and runoff events in fire-affected volcanic soils in Europe. Two areas affected by wildfires in 2015 were selected in Tenerife (Spain) representative of different fire behaviour (downhill surface fire with long residence time vs uphill crown fire with short residence time), severity (moderate soil burn severity vs light soil burn severity) and climatic conditions (average annual precipitation of 750 and 210 mm respectively). The actual erosion processes were monitored in the field using silt fences. Rainfall and rill simulations were conducted to determine hydrologic, interrill and rill erosion parameters. The soils were sampled and key properties used as model input, evaluated. During the first 18 months after the fire 7 storms produced runoff and erosion in the selected areas. Sediment delivery reached 5.4 and 2.5 Mg ha-1 respectively in the first rainfall event monitored after the fire, figures comparable to those reported for fire-affected areas of the western USA with similar climatic conditions but lower than those showed by wetter environments. The validation of the WEPP model using field data showed reasonable estimates of hillslope sediment delivery in the post-fire period and, therefore, it is suggested that this model can support land managers in volcanic areas in Europe in predicting post-fire hydrological and erosional risks and designing suitable mitigation treatments.

First application of the WEPP model to predict runoff and erosion risk in fire-affected volcanic areas in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neris, Jonay; Robichaud, Peter R.; Elliot, William J.; Doerr, Stefan H.; Notario del Pino, Jesús S.; Lado, Marcos

2017-04-01

An estimated that 15% of the world's population lives in volcanic areas. Recent catastrophic erosion events following wildfires in volcanic terrain have highlighted the geomorphological instability of this soil type under disturbed conditions and steep slopes. Predicting the hydrological and erosional response of this soils in the post-fire period is the first step to design and develop adequate actions to minimize risks in the post-fire period. In this work we apply, for the first time, the Water Erosion Prediction Project model for predicting erosion and runoff events in fire-affected volcanic soils in Europe. Two areas affected by wildfires in 2015 were selected in Tenerife (Spain) representative of different fire behaviour (downhill surface fire with long residence time vs uphill crown fire with short residence time), severity (moderate soil burn severity vs light soil burn severity) and climatic conditions (average annual precipitation of 750 and 210 mm respectively). The actual erosion processes were monitored in the field using silt fences. Rainfall and rill simulations were conducted to determine hydrologic, interrill and rill erosion parameters. The soils were sampled and key properties used as model input, evaluated. During the first 18 months after the fire 7 storms produced runoff and erosion in the selected areas. Sediment delivery reached 5.4 and 2.5 Mg ha-1 respectively in the first rainfall event monitored after the fire, figures comparable to those reported for fire-affected areas of the western USA with similar climatic conditions but lower than those showed by wetter environments. The validation of the WEPP model using field data showed reasonable estimates of hillslope sediment delivery in the post-fire period and, therefore, it is suggested that this model can support land managers in volcanic areas in Europe in predicting post-fire hydrological and erosional risks and designing suitable mitigation treatments.

Theory-Based Cartographic Risk Model Development and Application for Home Fire Safety.

PubMed

Furmanek, Stephen; Lehna, Carlee; Hanchette, Carol

There is a gap in the use of predictive risk models to identify areas at risk for home fires and burn injury. The purpose of this study was to describe the creation, validation, and application of such a model using a sample from an intervention study with parents of newborns in Jefferson County, KY, as an example. Performed was a literature search to identify risk factors for home fires and burn injury in the target population. Obtained from the American Community Survey at the census tract level and synthesized to create a predictive cartographic risk model was risk factor data. Model validation was performed through correlation, regression, and Moran's I with fire incidence data from open records. Independent samples t-tests were used to examine the model in relation to geocoded participant addresses. Participant risk level for fire rate was determined and proximity to fire station service areas and hospitals. The model showed high and severe risk clustering in the northwest section of the county. Strongly correlated with fire rate was modeled risk; the best predictive model for fire risk contained home value (low), race (black), and non high school graduates. Applying the model to the intervention sample, the majority of participants were at lower risk and mostly within service areas closest to a fire department and hospital. Cartographic risk models were useful in identifying areas at risk and analyzing participant risk level. The methods outlined in this study are generalizable to other public health issues.

75 FR 40845 - Preventing Deaths and Injuries of Fire Fighters Using Risk Management Principles at Structure Fires

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-14

... NIOSH 141-A] Preventing Deaths and Injuries of Fire Fighters Using Risk Management Principles at Structure Fires AGENCY: National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) of the Centers for... publication entitled ``Preventing Deaths and Injuries of Fire Fighters Using Risk Management Principles at...

Urban fire risk control: House design, upgrading and replanning

PubMed Central

Mbuya, Elinorata Celestine

2018-01-01

Urbanisation leads to house densification, a phenomenon experienced in both planned and unplanned settlements in cities in developing countries. Such densification limits fire brigade access into settlements, thereby aggravating fire disaster risks. In this article, we assess the fire exposure and risks in residences in informal areas of Mchikichini ward, in Dar es Salaam City, Tanzania. We rely on interviews of residents and government officials to obtain background on the occurrence and causes of fire accidents, policy provisions and regulations, and experiences with fire outbreaks and coping strategies, as well as on observations and measurements of house transformations, spatial quality and indoor real life. Our findings suggest that fire risks arise from both inappropriate structural characteristics and unsound behavioural practices. This includes unsafe electric practices by residents, poor capacity of residents to fight fires once started, limited access to structures by firefighting equipment because of flouting of planning regulations and inadequate awareness of local government leaders of the magnitude of fire risks. Potential changes to reduce fire risks in the settlement include the installation of firefighting systems, restriction of cooking to designated spaces, use of safer cooking energy sources and lighting means, improvements of vehicle access routes to neighbourhoods, capacity building at the grass root level and the establishment of community-based fire risk management.

Partnership working between the Fire Service and NHS: delivering a cost-saving service to improve the safety of high-risk people.

PubMed

Craig, Joyce A; Creegan, Shelagh; Tait, Martin; Dolan, Donna

2015-04-14

The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service and NHS Tayside piloted partnership working. A Community Fire Safety Link Worker provided Risk Assessments to adults, identified by community health teams, at high risk of fires, with the aim of reducing fires. An existing evaluation shows the Service developed a culture of 'high trust' between partners and had high client satisfaction. This paper reports on an economic evaluation of the costs and benefits of the Link Worker role. An economic evaluation of the costs and benefits of the Link Worker role was undertaken. Changes in the Risk Assessment score following delivery of the Service were used to estimate the potential fires avoided. These were valued using a national cost of a fire. The estimated cost of delivering the Service was deducted from these savings. The pilot was estimated to save 4.4 fires, equivalent to £286 per client. The estimated cost of delivering the Service was £55 per client, giving net savings of £231 per client. The pilot was cost-saving under all scenarios, with results sensitive to the probability of a fire. We believe this is the first evaluation of Fire Safety Risk Assessments. Partnership working, delivering joint Risk Assessments in the homes of people at high risk of fire, is modelled to be cost saving. Uncertainties in data and small sample are key limitations. Further research is required into the ex ante risk of fire by risk category. Despite these limitations, potential savings identified in this study supports greater adoption of this partnership initiative.

The analysis of factors of management of safety of critical information infrastructure with use of dynamic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trostyansky, S. N.; Kalach, A. V.; Lavlinsky, V. V.; Lankin, O. V.

2018-03-01

Based on the analysis of the dynamic model of panel data by region, including fire statistics for surveillance sites and statistics of a set of regional socio-economic indicators, as well as the time of rapid response of the state fire service to fires, the probability of fires in the surveillance sites and the risk of human death in The result of such fires from the values of the corresponding indicators for the previous year, a set of regional social-economics factors, as well as regional indicators time rapid response of the state fire service in the fire. The results obtained are consistent with the results of the application to the fire risks of the model of a rational offender. Estimation of the economic equivalent of human life from data on surveillance objects for Russia, calculated on the basis of the analysis of the presented dynamic model of fire risks, correctly agrees with the known literary data. The results obtained on the basis of the econometric approach to fire risks allow us to forecast fire risks at the supervisory sites in the regions of Russia and to develop management solutions to minimize such risks.

Multi-temporal analysis of forest fire risk driven by environmental and socio-economic change in the Republic of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. J.; Lim, C. H.; Kim, G. S.; Lee, W. K.

2017-12-01

Analysis of forest fire risk is important in disaster risk reduction (DRR) since it provides a way to manage forest fires. Climate and socio-economic factors are important in the cause of forest fires, and the role of the socio-economic factors in prevention and preparedness of forest fires is increasing. As most of the forest fires in the Republic of Korea are highly related to human activities, both environmental factors and socio-economic factors were considered into the analysis of forest fire risk. In this study, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential geographical distribution and probability of forest fire occurrence spatially and temporally from 1980s to the 2010s in the Republic of Korea by multi-temporal analysis and analyze the relationship between forest fires and the factors. As a result of the risk analysis, there was an overall increasing trend in forest fire risk from the 1980s to the 2000s, and socio-economic factors were highly correlated with the occurrence of forest fires. The study demonstrates that the socio-economic factors considered as human activities can increase the occurrence of forest fires. The result implies that managing human activities are significant to prevent forest fire occurrence. In addition, timely forest fire prevention and control is necessary as drought index such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) also affected forest fires.

Does crash risk increase when emergency vehicles are driving with lights and sirens?

PubMed

Missikpode, Celestin; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Young, Tracy; Hamann, Cara

2018-04-01

Emergency vehicles, such as police, ambulances, and fire vehicles, need to arrive at the scene of emergencies as quickly as possible, and thus they often travel in emergency mode - using their lights and sirens and often bypassing traffic signals. We examined whether travelling in emergency mode increased crash risk among police, ambulance and fire vehicles. We conducted a quasi-induced exposure analysis using data from the Iowa Crash Database for the period of 2005 through 2013. The data are maintained by the Iowa Department of Transportation (IADOT), Office of Driver Services (ODS) and includes all investigating police officer's reports of motor vehicle crashes. The quasi-induced exposure method is an approach to calculate crash risk in the absence of exposure data using vehicles without a contributing cause (did not contribute to the crash) as a proxy for the baseline driving population. From 2005 - 2013, police vehicles were involved in 2406 crashes and ambulances and fire vehicles were involved in 528 crashes. Police vehicles were 1.8 times more likely to crash while driving in emergency mode than usual mode; this was a statistically significant increase. Ambulance and fire vehicles were not more likely to crash in emergency mode compared with usual mode. For police, other factors that contributed to crash risk included gender, age, icy/snowy roads, unpaved roads, and intersections. For ambulances and fire vehicles, other factors that contributed to crash risk included gender, age, weekends, icy/snowy roads and urban locations. Crash risk increased when police vehicles drove with lights and sirens but did not increase for ambulance and fire vehicles. Further research is necessary to develop and evaluate strategies to mitigate crash risk among police vehicles. Cultural approaches which prioritize transportation safety in conjunction with reaching the scene as quickly as possible may be warranted. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Studying the effects of fuel treatment based on burn probability on a boreal forest landscape.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua; Yang, Jian; He, Hong S

2013-01-30

Fuel treatment is assumed to be a primary tactic to mitigate intense and damaging wildfires. However, how to place treatment units across a landscape and assess its effectiveness is difficult for landscape-scale fuel management planning. In this study, we used a spatially explicit simulation model (LANDIS) to conduct wildfire risk assessments and optimize the placement of fuel treatments at the landscape scale. We first calculated a baseline burn probability map from empirical data (fuel, topography, weather, and fire ignition and size data) to assess fire risk. We then prioritized landscape-scale fuel treatment based on maps of burn probability and fuel loads (calculated from the interactions among tree composition, stand age, and disturbance history), and compared their effects on reducing fire risk. The burn probability map described the likelihood of burning on a given location; the fuel load map described the probability that a high fuel load will accumulate on a given location. Fuel treatment based on the burn probability map specified that stands with high burn probability be treated first, while fuel treatment based on the fuel load map specified that stands with high fuel loads be treated first. Our results indicated that fuel treatment based on burn probability greatly reduced the burned area and number of fires of different intensities. Fuel treatment based on burn probability also produced more dispersed and smaller high-risk fire patches and therefore can improve efficiency of subsequent fire suppression. The strength of our approach is that more model components (e.g., succession, fuel, and harvest) can be linked into LANDIS to map the spatially explicit wildfire risk and its dynamics to fuel management, vegetation dynamics, and harvesting. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aboriginal hunting buffers climate-driven fire-size variability in Australia's spinifex grasslands.

PubMed

Bliege Bird, Rebecca; Codding, Brian F; Kauhanen, Peter G; Bird, Douglas W

2012-06-26

Across diverse ecosystems, greater climatic variability tends to increase wildfire size, particularly in Australia, where alternating wet-dry cycles increase vegetation growth, only to leave a dry overgrown landscape highly susceptible to fire spread. Aboriginal Australian hunting fires have been hypothesized to buffer such variability, mitigating mortality on small-mammal populations, which have suffered declines and extinctions in the arid zone coincident with Aboriginal depopulation. We test the hypothesis that the relationship between climate and fire size is buffered through the maintenance of an anthropogenic, fine-grained fire regime by comparing the effect of climatic variability on landscapes dominated by Martu Aboriginal hunting fires with those dominated by lightning fires. We show that Aboriginal fires are smaller, more tightly clustered, and remain small even when climate variation causes huge fires in the lightning region. As these effects likely benefit threatened small-mammal species, Aboriginal hunters should be considered trophic facilitators, and policies aimed at reducing the risk of large fires should promote land-management strategies consistent with Aboriginal burning regimes.

Economic efficiency and risk character of fire management programs, Northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Thomas J. Mills; Frederick W. Bratten

1988-01-01

Economic efficiency and risk have long been considered during the selection of fire management programs and the design of fire management polices. The risk considerations was largely subjective, however, and efficiency has only recently been calculated for selected portions of the fire management program. The highly stochastic behavior of the fire system and the high...

Applications of Living Fire PRA models to Fire Protection Significance Determination Process in Taiwan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De-Cheng, Chen; Chung-Kung, Lo; Tsu-Jen, Lin

2004-07-01

The living fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models for all three operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Taiwan had been established in December 2000. In that study, a scenario-based PRA approach was adopted to systematically evaluate the fire and smoke hazards and associated risks. Using these fire PRA models developed, a risk-informed application project had also been completed in December 2002 for the evaluation of cable-tray fire-barrier wrapping exemption. This paper presents a new application of the fire PRA models to fire protection issues using the fire protection significance determination process (FP SDP). The fire protection issues studied may involvemore » the selection of appropriate compensatory measures during the period when an automatic fire detection or suppression system in a safety-related fire zone becomes inoperable. The compensatory measure can either be a 24-hour fire watch or an hourly fire patrol. The living fire PRA models were used to estimate the increase in risk associated with the fire protection issue in terms of changes in core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF). In compliance with SDP at-power and the acceptance guidelines specified in RG 1.174, the fire protection issues in question can be grouped into four categories; red, yellow, white and green, in accordance with the guidelines developed for FD SDP. A 24-hour fire watch is suggested only required for the yellow condition, while an hourly fire patrol may be adopted for the white condition. More limiting requirement is suggested for the red condition, but no special consideration is needed for the green condition. For the calculation of risk measures, risk impacts from any additional fire scenarios that may have been introduced, as well as more severe initiating events and fire damages that may accompany the fire protection issue should be considered carefully. Examples are presented in this paper to illustrate the evaluation process. (authors)« less

Application of remote sensing and geographical information system in mapping forest fire risk zone at Bhadra wildlife sanctuary, India.

PubMed

Sowmya, S V; Somashekar, R K

2010-11-01

Fire is the most spectacular natural disturbance that affects the forest ecosystem composition and diversity. Fire has a devastating effect on the landscape and its impact is felt at every level of the ecosystem and it is possible to map forest fire risk zone and thereby minimize the frequency of fire. There is a need for supranational approaches that analyze wide scenarios of factors involved and global fire effects. Fires can be monitored and analyzed over large areas in a timely and cost effective manner by using satellite imagery. Also Geographical Information System (GIS) can be used effectively to demarcate the fire risk zone map. Bhadra wildlife Sanctuary located in Kamataka, India was selected for this study. Vegetation, slope, distance from roads, settlements parameters were derived for a study area using topographic maps and field information. The Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS)-based forest fire risk model of the study area appeared to be highly compatible with the actual fire-affected sites. The temporal satellite data from 1989 to2006 have been analyzed to map the burnt areas. These classes were weighted according to their influence on forest fire. Four categories of fire risk regions such as Low, Moderate, High and Very high fire intensity zones were identified. It is predicted that around 10.31% of the area falls undermoderate risk zone.

Real time forest fire warning and forest fire risk zoning: a Vietnamese case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, T.; Pham, D.; Phung, T.; Ha, A.; Paschke, M.

2016-12-01

Forest fire occurs seriously in Vietnam and has been considered as one of the major causes of forest lost and degradation. Several studies of forest fire risk warning were conducted using Modified Nesterov Index (MNI) but remaining shortcomings and inaccurate predictions that needs to be urgently improved. In our study, several important topographic and social factors such as aspect, slope, elevation, distance to residential areas and road system were considered as "permanent" factors while meteorological data were updated hourly using near-real-time (NRT) remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS Terra/Aqua and TRMM) for the prediction and warning of fire. Due to the limited number of weather stations in Vietnam, data from all active stations (i.e. 178) were used with the satellite data to calibrate and upscale meteorological variables. These data with finer resolution were then used to generate MNI. The only significant "permanent" factors were selected as input variables based on the correlation coefficients that computed from multi-variable regression among true fire-burning (collected from 1/2007) and its spatial characteristics. These coefficients also used to suggest appropriate weight for computing forest fire risk (FR) model. Forest fire risk model was calculated from the MNI and the selected factors using fuzzy regression models (FRMs) and GIS based multi-criteria analysis. By this approach, the FR was slightly modified from MNI by the integrated use of various factors in our fire warning and prediction model. Multifactor-based maps of forest fire risk zone were generated from classifying FR into three potential danger levels. Fire risk maps were displayed using webgis technology that is easy for managing data and extracting reports. Reported fire-burnings thereafter have been used as true values for validating the forest fire risk. Fire probability has strong relationship with potential danger levels (varied from 5.3% to 53.8%) indicating that the higher potential risk, the more chance of fire happen. By adding spatial factors to continuous daily updated remote sensing based meteo-data, results are valuable for both mapping forest fire risk zones in short and long-term and real time fire warning in Vietnam. Key words: Near-real-time, forest fire warning, fuzzy regression model, remote sensing.

Developing resilient ponderosa pine forests with mechanical thinning and prescribed fire in central Oregon's pumice region

Treesearch

Matt D. Busse; P.H. Cochran; William E. Hopkins; William H. Johnson; Gregg M. Riegel; Gary O. Fiddler; Alice W. Ratcliff; Carol J. Shestak

2009-01-01

Thinning and prescribed burning are common management practices for reducing fuel buildup in ponderosa pine forests. However, it is not well understood if their combined use is required to lower wildfire risk and to help restore natural ecological function. We compared 16 treatment combinations of thinning, prescribed fire, and slash retention for two decades...

Review of methods for developing probabilistic risk assessments

Treesearch

D. A. Weinstein; P.B. Woodbury

2010-01-01

We describe methodologies currently in use or those under development containing features for estimating fire occurrence risk assessment. We describe two major categories of fire risk assessment tools: those that predict fire under current conditions, assuming that vegetation, climate, and the interactions between them and fire remain relatively similar to their...

Physical fitness of an industrial fire department vs. a municipal fire department.

PubMed

Garver, Julie N; Jankovitz, Kristine Z; Danks, Jane M; Fittz, Ashley A; Smith, Heather S; Davis, Steven C

2005-05-01

Both industrial and municipal firefighters need to maintain high levels of physical fitness and minimize cardiovascular risk factors. The nature of firefighter responsibilities in industrial and municipal settings may vary, affecting the ability to sustain high levels of physical fitness. We compared the working conditions, physical fitness, and exercise training practices of an industrial fire department (n = 17) to those of a nearby municipal fire department (n = 55). After informed consent, aerobic capacity, muscular strength, muscular endurance, body composition, flexibility, blood lipid concentrations, and blood pressure levels were measured. Exercise training practices and related factors were assessed using a questionnaire. Despite programmatic differences, these departments demonstrated similar, relatively high degrees of physical fitness and similar blood lipid concentrations, blood pressure levels, and cardiac risk factors. It is recommended that fire departments involve appropriately trained staff, schedule on-duty times for exercise, offer well-equipped exercise facilities, and follow National Strength and Conditioning Association (NSCA) and American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM) guidelines for exercise conditioning in order to maintain a high degree of physical fitness.

Domains of Risk in the Developmental Continuity of Fire Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarty, Carolyn A.; McMahon, Robert J.

2005-01-01

Juvenile fire setting is a serious, dangerous, and costly behavior. The majority of research examining youth fire setting has been cross-sectional. We sought to examine early risk attributes that could differentiate fire setters from non-fire setters, in addition to examining their association with the developmental continuity of fire-setting…

Fire safety knowledge and practices among residents of an assisted living facility.

PubMed

Jaslow, David; Ufberg, Jacob; Yoon, Russell; McQueen, Clay; Zecher, Derek; Jakubowski, Greg

2005-01-01

Assisted living facilities (ALFs) pose unique fire risks to the elderly that may be linked to specific fire safety (FS) practices. To evaluate self-reported FS practices among ALF residents. All residents of a small ALF were surveyed regarding actual and hypothetical FS behaviors, self-perceived fire risk, and FS preparedness. Fifty-eight ALF residents completed the survey. Thirty-three (58%) individuals reported one or more disabilities. Seven (12%) residents ignored the fire alarm and 21 (35%) could not hear it clearly. Sixteen (28%) residents would attempt to locate the source of a fire rather than escape from the building. Only 24 (42%) residents were familiar with the building fire plan. Twenty-three (40%) people surveyed believed that they were not at risk of fire in the study facility. Residents of an ALF may be at increased fire injury risk due to their FS practices and disabilities.

Surgical fires, a clear and present danger.

PubMed

Yardley, I E; Donaldson, L J

2010-04-01

A surgical fire is potentially devastating for a patient. Fire has been recognised as a potential complication of surgery for many years. Surgical fires continue to happen with alarming frequency. We present a review of the literature and an examination of possible solutions to this problem. The PubMed and Medline databases from 1948 onwards were searched using the subject headings "operating rooms", "fire", "safety" and "safety management". "Surgical fire" was also searched as a keyword. Relevant references from articles were obtained. Fire occurs when the three elements of the fire triad, fuel, oxidiser and ignition coincide. Surgical fires are unusual in the absence of an oxygen-enriched atmosphere. The ignition source is most commonly diathermy but lasers carry a relatively greater risk. The majority of fires occur during head and neck surgery. This is due to the presence of oxygen and the extensive use of lasers. The risk of fire can be reduced with an awareness of the risk and good communication. Surgery will always carry a risk of fire. Reducing this risk requires a concerted effort from all team members. Copyright 2010 Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh (Scottish charity number SC005317) and Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential health impacts from range fires at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Willians, G.P.; Hermes, A.M.; Policastro, A.J.

1998-03-01

This study uses atmospheric dispersion computer models to evaluate the potential for human health impacts from exposure to contaminants that could be dispersed by fires on the testing ranges at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland. It was designed as a screening study and does not estimate actual human health risks. Considered are five contaminants possibly present in the soil and vegetation from past human activities at APG--lead, arsenic, trichloroethylene (TCE), depleted uranium (DU), and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT); and two chemical warfare agents that could be released from unexploded ordnance rounds heated in a range fire--mustard and phosgene. For comparison, dispersion of twomore » naturally occurring compounds that could be released by burning of uncontaminated vegetation--vinyl acetate and 2-furaldehyde--is also examined. Data from previous studies on soil contamination at APG are used in conjunction with conservative estimates about plant uptake of contaminants, atmospheric conditions, and size and frequency of range fires at APG to estimate dispersion and possible human exposure. The results are compared with US Environmental Protection Agency action levels. The comparisons indicate that for all of the anthropogenic contaminants except arsenic and mustard, exposure levels would be at least an order of magnitude lower than the corresponding action levels. Because of the compoundingly conservative nature of the assumptions made, they conclude that the potential for significant human health risks from range fires is low. The authors recommend that future efforts be directed at fire management and control, rather than at conducting additional studies to more accurately estimate actual human health risk from range fires.« less

Establishing a proactive safety and health risk management system in the fire service.

PubMed

Poplin, Gerald S; Pollack, Keshia M; Griffin, Stephanie; Day-Nash, Virginia; Peate, Wayne F; Nied, Ed; Gulotta, John; Burgess, Jefferey L

2015-04-19

Formalized risk management (RM) is an internationally accepted process for reducing hazards in the workplace, with defined steps including hazard scoping, risk assessment, and implementation of controls, all within an iterative process. While required for all industry in the European Union and widely used elsewhere, the United States maintains a compliance-based regulatory structure, rather than one based on systematic, risk-based methodologies. Firefighting is a hazardous profession, with high injury, illness, and fatality rates compared with other occupations, and implementation of RM programs has the potential to greatly improve firefighter safety and health; however, no descriptions of RM implementation are in the peer-reviewed literature for the North American fire service. In this paper we describe the steps used to design and implement the RM process in a moderately-sized fire department, with particular focus on prioritizing and managing injury hazards during patient transport, fireground, and physical exercise procedures. Hazard scoping and formalized risk assessments are described, in addition to the identification of participatory-led injury control strategies. Process evaluation methods were conducted to primarily assess the feasibility of voluntarily instituting the RM approach within the fire service setting. The RM process was well accepted by the fire department and led to development of 45 hazard specific-interventions. Qualitative data documenting the implementation of the RM process revealed that participants emphasized the: value of the RM process, especially the participatory bottom-up approach; usefulness of the RM process for breaking down tasks to identify potential risks; and potential of RM for reducing firefighter injury. As implemented, this risk-based approach used to identify and manage occupational hazards and risks was successful and is deemed feasible for U.S. (and other) fire services. While several barriers and challenges do exist in the implementation of any intervention such as this, recommendations for adopting the process are provided. Additional work will be performed to determine the effectiveness of select controls strategies that were implemented; however participants throughout the organizational structure perceived the RM process to be of high utility while researchers also found the process improved the awareness and engagement in actively enhancing worker safety and health.

An evaluation of The Great Escape: can an interactive computer game improve young children's fire safety knowledge and behaviors?

PubMed

Morrongiello, Barbara A; Schwebel, David C; Bell, Melissa; Stewart, Julia; Davis, Aaron L

2012-07-01

Fire is a leading cause of unintentional injury and, although young children are at particularly increased risk, there are very few evidence-based resources available to teach them fire safety knowledge and behaviors. Using a pre-post randomized design, the current study evaluated the effectiveness of a computer game (The Great Escape) for teaching fire safety information to young children (3.5-6 years). Using behavioral enactment procedures, children's knowledge and behaviors related to fire safety were compared to a control group of children before and after receiving the intervention. The results indicated significant improvements in knowledge and fire safety behaviors in the intervention group but not the control. Using computer games can be an effective way to promote young children's understanding of safety and how to react in different hazardous situations.

A comparative study of fire weather indices in a semiarid south-eastern Europe region. Case of study: Murcia (Spain).

PubMed

Pérez-Sánchez, Julio; Senent-Aparicio, Javier; Díaz-Palmero, José María; Cabezas-Cerezo, Juan de Dios

2017-07-15

Forest fires are an important distortion in forest ecosystems, linked to their development and whose effects proceed beyond the destruction of ecosystems and material properties, especially in semiarid regions. Prevention of forest fires has to lean on indices based on available parameters that quantify fire risk ignition and spreading. The present study was conducted to compare four fire weather indices in a semiarid region of 11,314km 2 located in southern Spain, characterised as being part of the most damaged area by fire in the Iberian Peninsula. The studied period comprises 3033 wildfires in the region during 15years (2000-2014), of which 80% are >100m 2 and 14% >1000m 2 , resulting around 40km 2 of burnt area in this period. The indices selected have been Angström Index, Forest Fire Drought Index, Forest Moisture Index and Fire Weather Index. Likewise, four selection methods have been applied to compare the results of the studied indices: Mahalanobis distance, percentile method, ranked percentile method and Relative Operating Characteristic curves (ROC). Angström index gives good results in the coastal areas with higher temperatures, low rainfall and wider range of variations while Fire Weather Index has better results in inland areas with higher rainfall, dense forest mass and fewer changes in meteorological conditions throughout the year. ROC space rejects all the indices except Fire Weather Index with good performance all over the region. ROC analysis ratios can be used to assess the success (or lack thereof) of fire indices; thus, it benefits operational wildfire predictions in semiarid regions similar to that of the case study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Wildfire risk and housing prices: a case study from colorado springs

Treesearch

Geoffrey H. Donovan; Patricia A. Champ; David T. Butry

2007-01-01

In 2000, concerned about the risks of wildfires to local homes, the Colorado Springs Fire Department rated the wildfire risk of 35,000 housing parcels within the wildland-urban interface and made its findings available online. We examine the effectiveness of this rating project by comparing the relationship between home price and wildfire risk before and after the...

Risk in fire management decisionmaking: techniques and criteria

Treesearch

Gail Blatternberger; William F. Hyde; Thomas J. Mills

1984-01-01

In the past, decisionmaking in wildland fire management generally has not included a full consideration of the risk and uncertainty that is inherent in evaluating alternatives. Fire management policies in some Federal land management agencies now require risk evaluation. The model for estimating the economic efficiency of fire program alternatives is the minimization...

Pediatric fire deaths in Ontario: retrospective study of behavioural, social, and environmental risk factors.

PubMed

Chen, Yingming Amy; Bridgman-Acker, Karen; Edwards, Jim; Lauwers, Albert Edward

2011-05-01

To identify the predictors of residential fire deaths in the Ontario pediatric population using systematically collected data from the Office of the Chief Coroner. Retrospective cohort study. Ontario. Children younger than 16 years of age who died in accidental residential fires in Ontario between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2006. The study retrospectively reviewed the coroner's case files for 60 subjects who qualified according to the selection criteria. Reviewed documents included the coroner's investigation statements, autopsy reports, toxicology reports, fire marshal's reports, police reports, and Children's Aid Society (CAS) reports. Information on a range of demographic, behavioural, social, and environmental factors was collected. Statistical tests, including relative risk, relative risk confidence intervals, and χ(2) tests were performed to determine the correlation between factors of interest and to establish their significance. Thirty-nine fire events resulting in 60 deaths occurred between 2001 and 2006. Fire play and electrical failures were the top 2 causes of residential fires. More fires occurred during the night (midnight to 9 AM) than during the day (9 AM to midnight). Nighttime fires were most commonly due to electrical failures or unattended candles, whereas daytime fires were primarily caused by unsupervised fire play and stove fires. Smoke alarms were present at 32 of 39 fire events (82%), but overall alarm functionality was only 54%. Children from families with a history of CAS involvement were approximately 32 times more likely to die in fires. Risk factors for pediatric fire death in Ontario include smoke alarm functionality, fire play, fire escape behaviour, and CAS involvement. Efforts to prevent residential fire deaths should target these populations and risk factors, and primary care physicians should consider education around these issues as a primary preventive strategy for families with young children.

Back to Basics: Preventing Surgical Fires.

PubMed

Spruce, Lisa

2016-09-01

When fires occur in the OR, they are devastating and potentially fatal to both patients and health care workers. Fires can be prevented by understanding the fire triangle and methods of reducing fire risk, conducting fire risk assessments, and knowing how to respond if a fire occurs. This Back to Basics article addresses the basics of fire prevention and the steps that can be taken to prevent fires from occurring. Copyright © 2016 AORN, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of mountain pine beetle on fuels and expected fire behavior in lodgepole pine forests, Colorado, USA

Treesearch

Tania Schoennagel; Thomas T. Veblen; Jose F. Negron; Jeremy M. Smith

2012-01-01

In Colorado and southern Wyoming, mountain pine beetle (MPB) has affected over 1.6 million ha of predominantly lodgepole pine forests, raising concerns about effects of MPB-caused mortality on subsequent wildfire risk and behavior. Using empirical data we modeled potential fire behavior across a gradient of wind speeds and moisture scenarios in Green stands compared...

Comparing resource values at risk from wildfires with Forest Service fire suppression expenditures: Examples from 2003 western Montana wildfire season

Treesearch

David Calkin; Kevin Hyde; Krista Gebert; Greg Jones

2005-01-01

Determining the economic effectiveness of wildfire suppression activities is complicated by difficulties in identifying the area that would have burned and the associated resource value changes had suppression resources not been employed. We developed a case study using break-even analysis for two large wildfires from the 2003 fire season in western Montana -- the...

Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.

PubMed

Eastaugh, C S; Hasenauer, H

2014-05-01

Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's 'soil water' and 'labile litter carbon' variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness.

Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling☆

PubMed Central

Eastaugh, C.S.; Hasenauer, H.

2014-01-01

Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's ‘soil water’ and ‘labile litter carbon’ variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness. PMID:26109905

WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

2016-04-01

Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The year 2010 was characterized by the smallest number of wildfires and burnt area whereas 2012 - by the biggest number of fires and the largest area of conflagration. The data about time, localization, scale and causes of individual wildfire occurrence in given years are taken from the National Forest Fire Information System (KSIPL), administered by Forest Fire Protection Department of Polish Forest Research Institute. The database is a part of European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). Basing on this data and on the WRF-based fire risk modelling we intend to achieve the second goal of the study, which is the evaluation of the forecasted fire risk with an occurrence of wildfires. Special attention is paid here to the number, time and the spatial distribution of wildfires occurred in cases of low-level predicted fire risk. Results obtained reveals the effectiveness of the new forecasting method. The outcome of our investigation allows to draw a conclusion that some adjustments are possible to improve the efficiency on the fire-risk estimation method.

Aboriginal hunting buffers climate-driven fire-size variability in Australia’s spinifex grasslands

PubMed Central

Bliege Bird, Rebecca; Codding, Brian F.; Kauhanen, Peter G.

2012-01-01

Across diverse ecosystems, greater climatic variability tends to increase wildfire size, particularly in Australia, where alternating wet–dry cycles increase vegetation growth, only to leave a dry overgrown landscape highly susceptible to fire spread. Aboriginal Australian hunting fires have been hypothesized to buffer such variability, mitigating mortality on small-mammal populations, which have suffered declines and extinctions in the arid zone coincident with Aboriginal depopulation. We test the hypothesis that the relationship between climate and fire size is buffered through the maintenance of an anthropogenic, fine-grained fire regime by comparing the effect of climatic variability on landscapes dominated by Martu Aboriginal hunting fires with those dominated by lightning fires. We show that Aboriginal fires are smaller, more tightly clustered, and remain small even when climate variation causes huge fires in the lightning region. As these effects likely benefit threatened small-mammal species, Aboriginal hunters should be considered trophic facilitators, and policies aimed at reducing the risk of large fires should promote land-management strategies consistent with Aboriginal burning regimes. PMID:22689979

Mapping fires and American Red Cross aid using demographic indicators of vulnerability.

PubMed

Lue, Evan; Wilson, John P

2017-04-01

Social vulnerability indicators can assist with informing disaster relief preparation. Certain demographic segments of a population may suffer disproportionately during disaster events, and a geographical understanding of them can help to determine where to place strategically logistical assets and to target disaster-awareness outreach endeavours. Records of house fire events and American Red Cross aid provision over a five-year period were mapped for the County of Los Angeles, California, United States, to examine the congruence between actual events and expectations of risk based on vulnerability theory. The geographical context provided by the data was compared with spatially-explicit indicators of vulnerability, such as age, race, and wealth. Fire events were found to occur more frequently in more vulnerable areas, and Red Cross aid was found to have an even stronger relationship to those places. The findings suggest that these indicators speak beyond vulnerability and relate to patterns of fire risk. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: A review

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Dave E. Calkin

2011-01-01

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to...

Fire Safety. Managing School Facilities, Guide 6.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Department for Education and Employment, London (England). Architects and Building Branch.

This booklet discusses how United Kingdom schools can manage fire safety and minimize the risk of fire. The guide examines what legislation school buildings must comply with and covers the major risks. It also describes training and evacuation procedures and provides guidance on fire precautions, alarm systems, fire fighting equipment, and escape…

The link between maltreatment and juvenile firesetting: correlates and underlying mechanisms.

PubMed

Root, C; Mackay, S; Henderson, J; Del Bove, G; Warling, D

2008-02-01

Despite the widely held belief that abuse is a risk factor for childhood firesetting, the role of maltreatment in firesetting is largely unexplored. This study reports on a sample of children and adolescents referred to a brief assessment and intervention program for juvenile firesetters. Firesetting histories of maltreated youth were compared to a group of firesetting youth with no maltreatment history. Participants included 205 children and youth aged 4-17 years and their caregivers. Assessments were completed with a standardized protocol. Forty-eight percent of the sample had a history of maltreatment as reported by caregivers; 26% of the sample had experienced more than one type of maltreatment. When compared to the non-maltreated group, children with histories of maltreatment demonstrated more frequent fire involvement, more versatility regarding ignition sources and targets, and a greater likelihood of an immediate family stressor as a motive for firesetting (all p<.05). Maltreated children were more likely to become involved with fire out of anger (p=.001), and there was also a trend towards higher rates of recidivism (p=.07). Children's externalizing behavior partially mediated the influence of maltreatment on specific fire-related outcomes of children (OR=1.10; 95% CI=1.04-1.17; p=.001). Within a juvenile firesetting population, the presence of maltreatment is a risk factor for a more severe course of firesetting. The findings also suggest that the link between maltreatment and firesetting is operating partially through heightened emotional and behavioral difficulties. This study demonstrates that maltreatment is a risk factor that contributes to a more severe course of juvenile fire involvement, and that the link between maltreatment and firesetting operates largely through heightened behavioral and emotional difficulties. These findings highlight the need for mental health clinicians to (a) be aware that these two serious clinical issues frequently co-occur, (b) screen for fire-related behaviors and maltreatment during general assessments, and (c) consider maltreatment status when thinking about the risk of firesetting.

Wildland-Urban Interface Fires and Socioeconomic Conditions: A Case Study of a Northwestern Patagonia City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Torres Curth, Monica; Biscayart, Carolina; Ghermandi, Luciana; Pfister, Gabriela

2012-04-01

In many regions of the world, fires are primarily of anthropogenic origin. In northwestern Patagonia, the number of fires is not correlated with meteorological variables, but is concentrated in urban areas. This study was conducted in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) area of San Carlos de Bariloche (Patagonia, Argentina), within the Nahuel Huapi National Park. WUI fires are particularly problematic because, besides people and goods, they represent a danger to protected areas. We studied the relationship between fire records and socioeconomic indicators within the WUI of San Carlos de Bariloche. We conducted a Multiple Correspondence Factorial Analysis and an Ascendant Hierarchical Classification of the city neighborhoods. The results show that the neighborhoods in Bariloche can be divided into three classes: High Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, including neighborhoods with the highest fire rates, where people have low instruction level, high levels of unsatisfied basic needs and high unemployment levels; Low Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, that groups neighborhoods which present the opposite characterization, and Moderate Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, which are more heterogeneous. Once neighborhoods were classified, a Socioeconomic Fire Risk map was generated, supplementing the existing WUI Fire Danger map. Our results emphasize the relevance of socioeconomic variables to fire policies.

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

DOE PAGES

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; ...

2016-06-09

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central questionmore » underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. In conclusion, we indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.« less

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

2016-06-01

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central questionmore » underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. In conclusion, we indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.« less

Determination of pumper truck intervention ratios in zones with high fire potential by using geographical information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aricak, Burak; Kucuk, Omer; Enez, Korhan

2014-01-01

Fighting forest fires not only depends on the forest type, topography, and weather conditions, but is also closely related to the technical properties of fire-fighting equipment. Firefighting is an important part of fire management planning. However, because of the complex nature of forests, creating thematic layers to generate potential fire risk maps is difficult. The use of remote sensing data has become an efficient method for the discrete classification of potential fire risks. The study was located in the Central District of the Kastamonu Regional Forest Directorate, covering an area of 24,320 ha, 15,685 ha of which is forested. On the basis of stand age, crown closure, and tree species, the sizes and distributions of potential fire risk zones within the study area were determined using high-resolution GeoEye satellite imagery and geographical information system data. The status of pumper truck intervention in zones with high fire risk and the sufficiency of existing forest roads within an existing forest network were discussed based on combustible matter characteristics. Pumper truck intervention was 83% for high-risk zones, 79% for medium-risk zones, and 78% for low-risk zones. A pumper truck intervention area map along existing roads was also created.

Forest fuels and landscape-level fire risk assessment of the ozark highlands, Missouri

Treesearch

Michael C. Stambaugh; Richard P. Guyette; Daniel C. Dey

2007-01-01

In this paper we describe a fire risk assessment of the Ozark Highlands. Fire risk is rated using information on ignition potential and fuel hazard. Fuel loading, a component of the fire hazard module, is weakly predicted (r2 = 0.19) by site- and landscape-level attributes. Fuel loading does not significantly differ between Ozark ecological...

Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; D. R. Brillinger; R. E. Burgan; John Benoit

2004-01-01

We present a probability-based model for estimating fire risk. Risk is defined using three probabilities: the probability of fire occurrence; the conditional probability of a large fire given ignition; and the unconditional probability of a large fire. The model is based on grouped data at the 1 km²-day cell level. We fit a spatially and temporally explicit non-...

Diversity in Southwesterners' views of Forest Service fire management

Treesearch

P.L. Winter; G.T. Cvetkovich

2007-01-01

The risk of wildland fires is of significant concern in the southwestern United States. Although the Southwest has a long hi story as a fire· prone ecosystem, years of drought and insect infestation have increased fire risk. Paired with these ecological forces is the increased risk caused by the concentration of populations in the wildland urban interface (WUl),...

Post-wildfire logging hinders regeneration and increases fire risk.

PubMed

Donato, D C; Fontaine, J B; Campbell, J L; Robinson, W D; Kauffman, J B; Law, B E

2006-01-20

We present data from a study of early conifer regeneration and fuel loads after the 2002 Biscuit Fire, Oregon, USA, with and without postfire logging. Natural conifer regeneration was abundant after the high-severity fire. Postfire logging reduced median regeneration density by 71%, significantly increased downed woody fuels, and thus increased short-term fire risk. Additional reduction of fuels is necessary for effective mitigation of fire risk. Postfire logging can be counterproductive to the goals of forest regeneration and fuel reduction.

Health Impacts of Climate Change-Induced Subzero Temperature Fires.

PubMed

Metallinou, Maria-Monika; Log, Torgrim

2017-07-20

General fire risk and the special risk related to cold climate cellulosic drying processes are outlined. Four recent subzero temperatures fires are studied with respect to health impacts: a wooden village fire, a single wood structure fire, a wildland urban interface (WUI) fire and a huge wildland fire. The health impacts range from stress related to loss of jobs, psychological effects of lost possessions, exposure to smoke and heat as well as immediate, or delayed, loss of lives. These four fires resulted in 32 fatalities, 385 persons hospitalized for shorter or longer periods, 104 structures lost and 1015 km² of wildland burned north of, and just south of, the Arctic Circle. It is shown that the combination of subzero temperature dry weather, strong winds, changing agricultural activities and declining snowpack may lead to previously anticipated threats to people and the environment. There are reasons to believe that these fires are a result of the ongoing climate changes. Risk impacts are discussed. Rural districts and/or vulnerable populations seem to be most affected. Training methods to identify and better monitor critical fire risk parameters are suggested to mitigate the health impacts of a possibly increasing number of such fires.

Health Impacts of Climate Change-Induced Subzero Temperature Fires

PubMed Central

Metallinou, Maria-Monika; Log, Torgrim

2017-01-01

General fire risk and the special risk related to cold climate cellulosic drying processes are outlined. Four recent subzero temperatures fires are studied with respect to health impacts: a wooden village fire, a single wood structure fire, a wildland urban interface (WUI) fire and a huge wildland fire. The health impacts range from stress related to loss of jobs, psychological effects of lost possessions, exposure to smoke and heat as well as immediate, or delayed, loss of lives. These four fires resulted in 32 fatalities, 385 persons hospitalized for shorter or longer periods, 104 structures lost and 1015 km2 of wildland burned north of, and just south of, the Arctic Circle. It is shown that the combination of subzero temperature dry weather, strong winds, changing agricultural activities and declining snowpack may lead to previously anticipated threats to people and the environment. There are reasons to believe that these fires are a result of the ongoing climate changes. Risk impacts are discussed. Rural districts and/or vulnerable populations seem to be most affected. Training methods to identify and better monitor critical fire risk parameters are suggested to mitigate the health impacts of a possibly increasing number of such fires. PMID:28726752

The role of prescribed burn associations in the application of prescribed fires in rangeland ecosystems.

PubMed

Toledo, David; Kreuter, Urs P; Sorice, Michael G; Taylor, Charles A

2014-01-01

Risk and liability concerns regarding fire affect people's attitudes toward fire and have led to human-induced alterations of fire regimes. This has, in turn, contributed to brush encroachment and degradation of many grasslands and savannas. Efforts to successfully restore such degraded ecosystems at the landscape scale in regions of the United States with high proportions of private lands require the reintroduction of fire. Prescribed Burn Associations (PBA) provide training, equipment, and labor to apply fire safely, facilitating the application of this rangeland management tool and thereby reducing the associated risk. PBAs help build networks and social capital among landowners who are interested in using fire. They can also change attitudes toward fire and enhance the social acceptability of using prescribed fire as a management practice. PBAs are an effective mechanism for promoting the widespread use of prescribed fire to restore and maintain the biophysical integrity of grasslands and savannas at the landscape scale. We report findings of a project aimed at determining the human dimensions of using prescribed fire to control woody plant encroachment in three different eco-regions of Texas. Specifically, we examine membership in PBAs as it relates to land manager decisions regarding the use of prescribed fire. Perceived risk has previously been identified as a key factor inhibiting the use of prescribed fire by landowners. Our results show that perceived constraints, due to lack of skill, knowledge, and access to equipment and membership in a PBAs are more important factors than risk perceptions in affecting landowner decisions about the use of fire. This emphasizes the potential for PBAs to reduce risk perceptions regarding the application of prescribed fire and, therefore, their importance for restoring brush-encroached grasslands and savannas. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Adding Fuel to the Fire: The Impacts of Non-Native Grass Invasion on Fire Management at a Regional Scale

PubMed Central

Setterfield, Samantha A.; Rossiter-Rachor, Natalie A.; Douglas, Michael M.; Wainger, Lisa; Petty, Aaron M.; Barrow, Piers; Shepherd, Ian J.; Ferdinands, Keith B.

2013-01-01

Background Widespread invasion by non-native plants has resulted in substantial change in fire-fuel characteristics and fire-behaviour in many of the world's ecosystems, with a subsequent increase in the risk of fire damage to human life, property and the environment. Models used by fire management agencies to assess fire risk are dependent on accurate assessments of fuel characteristics but there is little evidence that they have been modified to reflect landscape-scale invasions. There is also a paucity of information documenting other changes in fire management activities that have occurred to mitigate changed fire regimes. This represents an important limitation in information for both fire and weed risk management. Methodology/Principal Findings We undertook an aerial survey to estimate changes to landscape fuel loads in northern Australia resulting from invasion by Andropogon gayanus (gamba grass). Fuel load within the most densely invaded area had increased from 6 to 10 t ha−1 in the past two decades. Assessment of the effect of calculating the Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) for the 2008 and 2009 fire seasons demonstrated that an increase from 6 to 10 t ha−1 resulted in an increase from five to 38 days with fire risk in the ‘severe’ category in 2008 and from 11 to 67 days in 2009. The season of severe fire weather increased by six weeks. Our assessment of the effect of increased fuel load on fire management practices showed that fire management costs in the region have increased markedly (∼9 times) in the past decade due primarily to A. gayanus invasion. Conclusions/Significance This study demonstrated the high economic cost of mitigating fire impacts of an invasive grass. This study demonstrates the need to quantify direct and indirect invasion costs to assess the risk of further invasion and to appropriately fund fire and weed management strategies. PMID:23690917

Adding fuel to the fire: the impacts of non-native grass invasion on fire management at a regional scale.

PubMed

Setterfield, Samantha A; Rossiter-Rachor, Natalie A; Douglas, Michael M; Wainger, Lisa; Petty, Aaron M; Barrow, Piers; Shepherd, Ian J; Ferdinands, Keith B

2013-01-01

Widespread invasion by non-native plants has resulted in substantial change in fire-fuel characteristics and fire-behaviour in many of the world's ecosystems, with a subsequent increase in the risk of fire damage to human life, property and the environment. Models used by fire management agencies to assess fire risk are dependent on accurate assessments of fuel characteristics but there is little evidence that they have been modified to reflect landscape-scale invasions. There is also a paucity of information documenting other changes in fire management activities that have occurred to mitigate changed fire regimes. This represents an important limitation in information for both fire and weed risk management. We undertook an aerial survey to estimate changes to landscape fuel loads in northern Australia resulting from invasion by Andropogon gayanus (gamba grass). Fuel load within the most densely invaded area had increased from 6 to 10 t ha(-1) in the past two decades. Assessment of the effect of calculating the Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) for the 2008 and 2009 fire seasons demonstrated that an increase from 6 to 10 t ha(-1) resulted in an increase from five to 38 days with fire risk in the 'severe' category in 2008 and from 11 to 67 days in 2009. The season of severe fire weather increased by six weeks. Our assessment of the effect of increased fuel load on fire management practices showed that fire management costs in the region have increased markedly (∼9 times) in the past decade due primarily to A. gayanus invasion. This study demonstrated the high economic cost of mitigating fire impacts of an invasive grass. This study demonstrates the need to quantify direct and indirect invasion costs to assess the risk of further invasion and to appropriately fund fire and weed management strategies.

Wildfire risk reduction in the United States: Leadership staff perceptions of local fire department roles and responsibilities

Treesearch

Rachel S. Madsen; Hylton J. G. Haynes; Sarah M. McCaffrey

2018-01-01

As wildland fires have had increasing negative impacts on a range of human values, in many parts of the United States (U.S.) and around the world, collaborative risk reduction efforts among agencies, homeowners, and fire departments are needed to improve wildfire safety and mitigate risk. Using interview data from 46 senior officers from local fire departments around...

An analytical framework for quantifying wildland fire risk and fuel treatment benefit

Treesearch

Joe H. Scott

2006-01-01

Federal wildland fire management programs have readily embraced the practice of fuel treatment. Wildland fire risk is quantified as expected annual loss ($ yr –1 or $ yr –1 ac –1). Fire risk at a point on the landscape is a function of the probability of burning at that point, the relative frequency...

Modern Approaches to Wildfire Mitigation by Air and by Ground: An Interdisciplinary Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffin, J.; Lindquist, E.; Pierce, J. L.; Wuerzer, T.; Lawless, B.; McCoy, J.

2013-12-01

In 2012, 1.7 million acres of land burned in Idaho--more than any other state. Boise, Idaho, is situated at the base of the Boise Foothills; this physiographic setting places the area at risk of not only fires along on the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), but also at risk for post-fire floods and debris flows in the lower lying neighborhoods adjacent to steep hillslopes. In 1959 and 1994, fires and post-fire debris flows devastated areas of the foothills, and inundated residences with water and mud. Anthropogenically-induced climate change is projected to increased summer temperatures and decrease summer precipitation; the associated increase in fire risk necessitates enhanced wildfire planning in Boise's WUI. Temporal uncertainty with varying weather and vegetation conditions poses problems in defining wildfire risk and requires new methods to address the WUI challenges. Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) could identify and characterize fire hazards to be mapped and used as a management tool. This technology would allow for repeat flights to update risk analysis as the hazards change both annually and multiple times within each fire season. With aerial photography obtained from flights, Structure from Motion software can be used to compile the images and render a 3D model to help quantify biomass. Aerial photographs would also allow for the ability to track seasonal changes in fire risk from vegetation height and inferred moisture content. Boise State University's departments of Geoscience, Community and Regional Planning, and the Public Policy Center are examining the risks and impacts of fire along the Boise WUI. The research integrates the perspectives of the geosciences and social sciences by combining physically-based fire hazards, effective fire management policies, and urban/regional planning in the WUI to provide better spatially-appropriate data and resources to the community and a common reference to assist in unifying the local efforts for fire mitigation. This presentation will introduce findings from a homeowner's survey of potentially at-risk residents regarding their perceptions of risk and uncertainty and their receptiveness to local mitigation, adaptation policies, and alternatives.

Fire Effects Planning Framework: A user's guide

Treesearch

A. Black; T. Opperman

2005-01-01

Each decision to suppress fire reinforces a feedback cycle in which fuels continue to accumulate, risk escalates, and the tendency to suppress fires grows (Miller and others, 2003). Existing decision-support tools focus primarily on the negative consequences of fire. This guide outlines a framework managers can use to (1) identify key areas of fire risk and (2)...

Fire Risk Assessment of Some Indian Coals Using Radial Basis Function (RBF) Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nimaje, Devidas; Tripathy, Debi Prasad

2017-04-01

Fires, whether surface or underground, pose serious and environmental problems in the global coal mining industry. It is causing huge loss of coal due to burning and loss of lives, sterilization of coal reserves and environmental pollution. Most of the instances of coal mine fires happening worldwide are mainly due to the spontaneous combustion. Hence, attention must be paid to take appropriate measures to prevent occurrence and spread of fire. In this paper, to evaluate the different properties of coals for fire risk assessment, forty-nine in situ coal samples were collected from major coalfields of India. Intrinsic properties viz. proximate and ultimate analysis; and susceptibility indices like crossing point temperature, flammability temperature, Olpinski index and wet oxidation potential method of Indian coals were carried out to ascertain the liability of coal to spontaneous combustion. Statistical regression analysis showed that the parameters of ultimate analysis provide significant correlation with all investigated susceptibility indices as compared to the parameters of proximate analysis. Best correlated parameters (ultimate analysis) were used as inputs to the radial basis function network model. The model revealed that Olpinski index can be used as a reliable method to assess the liability of Indian coals to spontaneous combustion.

Risk factors associated with unintentional house fire incidents, injuries and deaths in high-income countries: a systematic review.

PubMed

Turner, Samantha L; Johnson, Rhodri D; Weightman, Alison L; Rodgers, Sarah E; Arthur, Geri; Bailey, Rowena; Lyons, Ronan A

2017-04-01

To identify the distinguishing risk factors associated with unintentional house fire incidents, injuries and deaths. Systematic review. A range of bibliographical databases and grey literature were searched from their earliest records to January 2016. To ensure the magnitude of risk could be quantified, only those study types which contained a control group, and undertook appropriate statistical analyses were included. A best evidence synthesis was conducted instead of a meta-analysis due to study heterogeneity. Eleven studies investigating a variety of risk factors and outcomes were identified. Studies ranged from medium to low quality with no high quality studies identified. Characteristics commonly associated with increased risk of house fire incidents, injuries and fatalities included: higher numbers of residents, male, children under the age of 5 years, non-working households, smoking, low income, non-privately owned properties, apartments and buildings in poor condition. Several risk factors were only associated with one outcome (eg, living alone was only associated with increased risk of injurious fires), and households with older residents were at increased risk of injurious fires, but significantly less likely to experience a house fire in the first place. This best evidence synthesis indicates that several resident and property characteristics are associated with risk of experiencing house fire incidents, injuries or death. These findings should be considered by the Fire and Rescue Services and others with a role in fire prevention. Future research should adopt robust, standardised study designs to permit meta-analyses and enable stronger conclusions to be drawn. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Field modeling of heat transfer in atrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nedryshkin, Oleg; Gravit, Marina; Bushuev, Nikolay

2017-10-01

The results of calculating fire risk are an important element in the system of modern fire safety assessment. The article reviews the work on the mathematical modeling of fire in the room. A comparison of different calculation models in the programs of fire risk assessment and fire modeling was performed. The results of full-scale fire tests and fire modeling in the FDS program are presented. The analysis of empirical and theoretical data on fire modeling is made, a conclusion is made about the modeling accuracy in the FDS program.

Coupling the biophysical and social dimensions of wildfire risk to improve wildfire mitigation planning

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Jeffrey D. Kline; A. Paige Fisher

2015-01-01

We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social...

The efficacy of salvage logging in reducing subsequent fire severity in conifer-dominated forests of Minnesota, U.S.A.

PubMed

Fraver, Shawn; Jain, Theresa; Bradford, John B; D'Amato, Anthony W; Kastendick, Doug; Palik, Brian; Shinneman, Doug; Stanovick, John

2011-09-01

Although primarily used to mitigate economic losses following disturbance, salvage logging has also been justified on the basis of reducing fire risk and fire severity; however, its ability to achieve these secondary objectives remains unclear. The patchiness resulting from a sequence of recent disturbances-blowdown, salvage logging, and wildfire-provided an excellent opportunity to assess the impacts of blowdown and salvage logging on wildfire severity. We used two fire-severity assessments (tree-crown and forest-floor characteristics) to compare post-wildfire conditions among three treatment combinations (Blowdown-Salvage-Fire, Blowdown-Fire, and Fire only). Our results suggest that salvage logging reduced the intensity (heat released) of the subsequent fire. However, its effect on severity (impact to the system) differed between the tree crowns and forest floor: tree-crown indices suggest that salvage logging decreased fire severity (albeit with modest statistical support), while forest-floor indices suggest that salvage logging increased fire severity. We attribute the latter finding to the greater exposure of mineral soil caused by logging operations; once exposed, soils are more likely to register the damaging effects of fire, even if fire intensity is not extreme. These results highlight the important distinction between fire intensity and severity when formulating post-disturbance management prescriptions.

The efficacy of salvage logging in reducing subsequent fire severity in conifer-dominated forests of Minnesota, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fraver, S.; Jain, T.; Bradford, J.B.; D'Amato, A.W.; Kastendick, D.; Palik, B.; Shinneman, D.; Stanovick, J.

2011-01-01

Although primarily used to mitigate economic losses following disturbance, salvage logging has also been justified on the basis of reducing fire risk and fire severity; however, its ability to achieve these secondary objectives remains unclear. The patchiness resulting from a sequence of recent disturbances-blowdown, salvage logging, and ildfire- provided an excellent opportunity to assess the impacts of blowdown and salvage logging on wildfire severity. We used two fire-severity assessments (tree-crown and forest-floor characteristics) to compare post-wildfire conditions among three treatment combinations (Blowdown-Salvage-Fire, Blowdown-Fire, and Fire only). Our results suggest that salvage logging reduced the intensity (heat released) of the subsequent fire. However, its effect on severity (impact to the system) differed between the tree crowns and forest floor: tree-crown indices suggest that salvage logging decreased fire severity (albeit with modest statistical support), while forest-floor indices suggest that salvage logging increased fire severity. We attribute the latter finding to the greater exposure of mineral soil caused by logging operations; once exposed, soils are more likely to register the damaging effects of fire, even if fire intensity is not extreme. These results highlight the important distinction between fire intensity and severity when formulating post-disturbance management prescriptions. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Application of the NUREG/CR-6850 EPRI/NRC Fire PRA Methodology to a DOE Facility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tom Elicson; Bentley Harwood; Richard Yorg

2011-03-01

The application NUREG/CR-6850 EPRI/NRC fire PRA methodology to DOE facility presented several challenges. This paper documents the process and discusses several insights gained during development of the fire PRA. A brief review of the tasks performed is provided with particular focus on the following: • Tasks 5 and 14: Fire-induced risk model and fire risk quantification. A key lesson learned was to begin model development and quantification as early as possible in the project using screening values and simplified modeling if necessary. • Tasks 3 and 9: Fire PRA cable selection and detailed circuit failure analysis. In retrospect, it wouldmore » have been beneficial to perform the model development and quantification in 2 phases with detailed circuit analysis applied during phase 2. This would have allowed for development of a robust model and quantification earlier in the project and would have provided insights into where to focus the detailed circuit analysis efforts. • Tasks 8 and 11: Scoping fire modeling and detailed fire modeling. More focus should be placed on detailed fire modeling and less focus on scoping fire modeling. This was the approach taken for the fire PRA. • Task 14: Fire risk quantification. Typically, multiple safe shutdown (SSD) components fail during a given fire scenario. Therefore dependent failure analysis is critical to obtaining a meaningful fire risk quantification. Dependent failure analysis for the fire PRA presented several challenges which will be discussed in the full paper.« less

The state of the residential fire fatality problem in Sweden: Epidemiology, risk factors, and event typologies.

PubMed

Jonsson, Anders; Bonander, Carl; Nilson, Finn; Huss, Fredrik

2017-09-01

Residential fires represent the largest category of fatal fires in Sweden. The purpose of this study was to describe the epidemiology of fatal residential fires in Sweden and to identify clusters of events. Data was collected from a database that combines information on fatal fires with data from forensic examinations and the Swedish Cause of Death-register. Mortality rates were calculated for different strata using population statistics and rescue service turnout reports. Cluster analysis was performed using multiple correspondence analysis with agglomerative hierarchical clustering. Male sex, old age, smoking, and alcohol were identified as risk factors, and the most common primary injury diagnosis was exposure to toxic gases. Compared to non-fatal fires, fatal residential fires more often originated in the bedroom, were more often caused by smoking, and were more likely to occur at night. Six clusters were identified. The first two clusters were both smoking-related, but were separated into (1) fatalities that often involved elderly people, usually female, whose clothes were ignited (17% of the sample), (2) middle-aged (45-64years old), (often) intoxicated men, where the fire usually originated in furniture (30%). Other clusters that were identified in the analysis were related to (3) fires caused by technical fault, started in electrical installations in single houses (13%), (4) cooking appliances left on (8%), (5) events with unknown cause, room and object of origin (25%), and (6) deliberately set fires (7%). Fatal residential fires were unevenly distributed in the Swedish population. To further reduce the incidence of fire mortality, specialized prevention efforts that focus on the different needs of each cluster are required. Cooperation between various societal functions, e.g. rescue services, elderly care, psychiatric clinics and other social services, with an application of both human and technological interventions, should reduce residential fire mortality in Sweden. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

2014-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

United States Fire Administration

MedlinePlus

... Vehicle Fire Safety flyer PDF 234 KB Publication Risk management practices This guide contains recommended approaches to manage organizational, operational and community risk. If you are a fire department leader, our ...

Assessing the Fire Risk for a Historic Hangar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Datta, Koushik; Morrison, Richard S.

2010-01-01

NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) is evaluating options of reuse of its historic Hangar 1. As a part of this evaluation, a qualitative fire risk assessment study was performed to evaluate the potential threat of combustion of the historic hangar. The study focused on the fire risk trade-off of either installing or not installing a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System in the Hangar 1 deck areas. The assessment methodology was useful in discussing the important issues among various groups within the Center. Once the methodology was deemed acceptable, the results were assessed. The results showed that the risk remained in the same risk category, whether Hangar 1 does or does not have a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System. Note that the methodology assessed the risk to Hangar 1 and not the risk to an aircraft in the hangar. If one had a high value aircraft, the aircraft risk analysis could potentially show a different result. The assessed risk results were then communicated to management and other stakeholders.

Managing the risks of risk management on large fires

Treesearch

Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán

2013-01-01

Large fires pose risks to a number of important values, including the ecology, property and the lives of incident responders. A relatively unstudied aspect of fire management is the risks to which incident managers are exposed due to organizational and sociopolitical factors that put them in a position of, for example, potential liability or degradation of their image...

Managing risk with chance-constrained programming

Treesearch

Michael Bevers; Brian Kent

2007-01-01

Reducing catastrophic fire risk is an important objective of many fuel treatment programs (Kent et al. 2003; Machlis et al. 2002; USDA/USDI 2001a). In practice, risk reductions can be accomplished by lowering the probability of a given loss to forest fires, the amount of probable loss, or both. Forest fire risk objectives are seldom quantified, however, making it...

The health of women in the US fire service

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Despite statements from national fire service organizations, including the International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF) and the International Association of Fire Chiefs (IAFC), promoting a diverse work force related to gender within the fire service, rates of women firefighters remain very low. Thus, research into why this extensive gender disparity continues is a high priority. Recent years have seen a number of large scale studies on firefighter health and health risk behaviors however, none have focused on the health of women firefighters and nearly all have eliminated women from the sample due to small sample size. Data from the present report is drawn from all females in a large, randomly selected cohort of firefighters in an epidemiological study designed to assess health outcomes and health risk behaviors identified as most important to the fire service. Methods Data reported for the present study were collected as baseline data for the Firefighter Injury and Risk Evaluation (FIRE) Study, a longitudinal cohort study examining risk factors for injury in both career and volunteer firefighters in the IAFC Missouri Valley Region. Of the departments assessed, only 8 career and 6 volunteer departments had any women firefighters. All the women solicited for participation chose to enroll in the study. The number of women ranged from 1 to 7 in career departments and 1 to 6 in volunteer departments. Results Where possible, comparisons are made between female firefighters and published data on male firefighters as well as comparisons between female firefighters and military members. Compared to male firefighters, females had more favorable body composition among both career and volunteer firefighters. Tobacco use rates were generally higher among females than males and rates among female firefighters were similar to the rates of female military members. While rates of alcohol use were higher than the general population, only one of the participants evidenced responses in the range of concern on the CAGE screening. Conclusions In general, the findings offer an interesting glimpse of the health of women in the fire service as a generally healthy occupational workforce with some unique health risk behavior challenges. They also highlight some of the similarities and differences between male and female firefighters and bolster the argument for studying female firefighters as a unique occupational sub-population. PMID:23114186

Mortality and cancer incidence among male volunteer Australian firefighters.

PubMed

Glass, Deborah C; Del Monaco, Anthony; Pircher, Sabine; Vander Hoorn, Stephen; Sim, Malcolm R

2017-09-01

This study aims to investigate mortality and cancer incidence of Australian male volunteer firefighters and of subgroups of firefighters by duration of service, era of first service and the number and type of incidents attended. Participating fire agencies supplied records of individual volunteer firefighters, including incidents attended. The cohort was linked to the Australian National Death Index and Australian Cancer Database. standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) for cancer were calculated. Firefighters were grouped into tertiles by duration of service and by number of incidents attended and relative mortality ratios and relative incidence ratios calculated. Compared with the general population, there were significant decreases in overall cancer incidence and in most major cancer categories. Prostate cancer incidence was increased compared with the general population, but this was not related to the number of incidents attended. Kidney cancer was associated with increased attendance at fires, particularly structural fires.The overall risk of mortality was significantly decreased, and all major causes of death were significantly reduced for volunteer firefighters. There was evidence of an increased mortality from ischaemic heart disease, with increased attendance at fires. Volunteer firefighters have a reduced risk of mortality and cancer incidence compared with the general population, which is likely to be a result of a 'healthy-volunteer' effect and, perhaps, lower smoking rates. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Application of wildfire simulation methods to assess wildfire exposure in a Mediterranean fire-prone area (Sardinia, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, M.; Ager, A.; Arca, B.; Finney, M.; Bacciu, V. M.; Spano, D.; Duce, P.

2012-12-01

Spatial and temporal patterns of fire spread and behavior are dependent on interactions among climate, topography, vegetation and fire suppression efforts (Pyne et al. 1996; Viegas 2006; Falk et al. 2007). Humans also play a key role in determining frequency and spatial distribution of ignitions (Bar Massada et al, 2011), and thus influence fire regimes as well. The growing incidence of catastrophic wildfires has led to substantial losses for important ecological and human values within many areas of the Mediterranean basin (Moreno et al. 1998; Mouillot et al. 2005; Viegas et al. 2006a; Riaño et al. 2007). The growing fire risk issue has led to many new programs and policies of fuel management and risk mitigation by environmental and fire agencies. However, risk-based methodologies to help identify areas characterized by high potential losses and prioritize fuel management have been lacking for the region. Formal risk assessment requires the joint consideration of likelihood, intensity, and susceptibility, the product of which estimates the chance of a specific loss (Brillinger 2003; Society of Risk Analysis, 2006). Quantifying fire risk therefore requires estimates of a) the probability of a specific location burning at a specific intensity and location, and b) the resulting change in financial or ecological value (Finney 2005; Scott 2006). When large fires are the primary cause of damage, the application of this risk formulation requires modeling fire spread to capture landscape properties that affect burn probability. Recently, the incorporation of large fire spread into risk assessment systems has become feasible with the development of high performance fire simulation systems (Finney et al. 2011) that permit the simulation of hundreds of thousands of fires to generate fine scale maps of burn probability, flame length, and fire size, while considering the combined effects of weather, fuels, and topography (Finney 2002; Andrews et al. 2007; Ager and Finney 2009; Finney et al. 2009; Salis et al. 2012 accepted). In this work, we employed wildfire simulation methods to quantify wildfire exposure to human and ecological values for the island of Sardinia, Italy. The work was focused on the risk and exposure posed by large fires (e.g. 100 - 10,000 ha), and considers historical weather, ignition patterns and fuels. We simulated 100,000 fires using burn periods that replicated the historical size distribution on the Island, and an ignition probability grid derived from historic ignition data. We then examine spatial variation in three exposure components (burn probability, flame length, fire size) among important human and ecological values. The results allowed us to contract exposure among and within the various features examined, and highlighted the importance of human factors in shaping wildfire exposure in Sardinia. The work represents the first application of burn probability modeling in the Mediterranean region, and sets the stage for expanded work in the region to quantify risk from large fires

Influence of fuels, weather and the built environment on the exposure of property to wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Penman, Trent D.; Collins, Luke S.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2014-01-01

Wildfires can pose a significant risk to people and property. Billions of dollars are spent investing in fire management actions in an attempt to reduce the risk of loss. One of the key areas where money is spent is through fuel treatment – either fuel reduction (prescribed fire) or fuel removal (fuel breaks). Individual treatments can influence fire size and the maximum distance travelled from the ignition and presumably risk, but few studies have examined the landscape level effectiveness of these treatments. Here we use a Bayesian Network model to examine the relative influence of the built and natural environment, weather, fuel and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfire to the wildland-urban interface. Fire size and distance travelled was influenced most strongly by weather, with exposure to fires most sensitive to changes in the built environment and fire parameters. Natural environment variables and fuel load all had minor influences on fire size, distance travelled and exposure of assets. These results suggest that management of fuels provided minimal reductions in risk to assets and adequate planning of the changes in the built environment to cope with the expansion of human populations is going to be vital for managing risk from fire under future climates.

Influence of Fuels, Weather and the Built Environment on the Exposure of Property to Wildfire

PubMed Central

Penman, Trent D.; Collins, Luke; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2014-01-01

Wildfires can pose a significant risk to people and property. Billions of dollars are spent investing in fire management actions in an attempt to reduce the risk of loss. One of the key areas where money is spent is through fuel treatment – either fuel reduction (prescribed fire) or fuel removal (fuel breaks). Individual treatments can influence fire size and the maximum distance travelled from the ignition and presumably risk, but few studies have examined the landscape level effectiveness of these treatments. Here we use a Bayesian Network model to examine the relative influence of the built and natural environment, weather, fuel and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfire to the wildland-urban interface. Fire size and distance travelled was influenced most strongly by weather, with exposure to fires most sensitive to changes in the built environment and fire parameters. Natural environment variables and fuel load all had minor influences on fire size, distance travelled and exposure of assets. These results suggest that management of fuels provided minimal reductions in risk to assets and adequate planning of the changes in the built environment to cope with the expansion of human populations is going to be vital for managing risk from fire under future climates. PMID:25360741

Shared values and trust: the experience of community residents in a fire-prone ecosystem

Treesearch

Patricia L. Winter; George T. Cvetkovich

2010-01-01

The risk and impact of fires have been significant on the San Bernardino National Forest. It is important to understand how residents of areas surrounded by the forest perceive the impact of fires. If fire management agencies understand these perceptions, fire management agencies will be better equipped to communicate with publics about risk-reduction efforts that...

Evaluating risks and benefits of wildland fire at landscape scales

Treesearch

Carol Miller; Peter B. Landres; Paul B. Alaback

2000-01-01

Fire suppression has resulted in severe management challenges, especially in the wildland-urban interface zone. Fire managers seek to reduce fuels and risks in the interface zone, while striving to return the natural role of fire to wildland ecosystems. Managers must balance the benefits of wildland fire on ecosystem health against the values that need to be protected...

Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cochrane, M.A.; Moran, C.J.; Wimberly, M.C.; Baer, A.D.; Finney, M.A.; Beckendorf, K.L.; Eidenshink, J.; Zhu, Z.

2012-01-01

Human land use practices, altered climates, and shifting forest and fire management policies have increased the frequency of large wildfires several-fold. Mitigation of potential fire behaviour and fire severity have increasingly been attempted through pre-fire alteration of wildland fuels using mechanical treatments and prescribed fires. Despite annual treatment of more than a million hectares of land, quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of existing fuel treatments at reducing the size of actual wildfires or how they might alter the risk of burning across landscapes are currently lacking. Here, we present a method for estimating spatial probabilities of burning as a function of extant fuels treatments for any wildland fire-affected landscape. We examined the landscape effects of more than 72 000 ha of wildland fuel treatments involved in 14 large wildfires that burned 314 000 ha of forests in nine US states between 2002 and 2010. Fuels treatments altered the probability of fire occurrence both positively and negatively across landscapes, effectively redistributing fire risk by changing surface fire spread rates and reducing the likelihood of crowning behaviour. Trade offs are created between formation of large areas with low probabilities of increased burning and smaller, well-defined regions with reduced fire risk.

76 FR 81998 - Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-29

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0295] Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA AGENCY..., ``Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA--Draft Report for Comment.'' DATES: Submit comments by March 01... risk assessment (PRA) method for quantitatively analyzing fire risk in commercial nuclear power plants...

78 FR 28892 - Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-16

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Federal Emergency Management Agency [Docket ID FEMA 2010-0037] Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION..., limbing and mowing, thinning, and grazing techniques as appropriate to reduce the risk of fire hazard...

Cost-Effective Fuel Treatment Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreitler, J.; Thompson, M.; Vaillant, N.

2014-12-01

The cost of fighting large wildland fires in the western United States has grown dramatically over the past decade. This trend will likely continue with growth of the WUI into fire prone ecosystems, dangerous fuel conditions from decades of fire suppression, and a potentially increasing effect from prolonged drought and climate change. Fuel treatments are often considered the primary pre-fire mechanism to reduce the exposure of values at risk to wildland fire, and a growing suite of fire models and tools are employed to prioritize where treatments could mitigate wildland fire damages. Assessments using the likelihood and consequence of fire are critical because funds are insufficient to reduce risk on all lands needing treatment, therefore prioritization is required to maximize the effectiveness of fuel treatment budgets. Cost-effectiveness, doing the most good per dollar, would seem to be an important fuel treatment metric, yet studies or plans that prioritize fuel treatments using costs or cost-effectiveness measures are absent from the literature. Therefore, to explore the effect of using costs in fuel treatment planning we test four prioritization algorithms designed to reduce risk in a case study examining fuel treatments on the Sisters Ranger District of central Oregon. For benefits we model sediment retention and standing biomass, and measure the effectiveness of each algorithm by comparing the differences among treatment and no treat alternative scenarios. Our objective is to maximize the averted loss of net benefits subject to a representative fuel treatment budget. We model costs across the study landscape using the My Fuel Treatment Planner software, tree list data, local mill prices, and GIS-measured site characteristics. We use fire simulations to generate burn probabilities, and estimate fire intensity as conditional flame length at each pixel. Two prioritization algorithms target treatments based on cost-effectiveness and show improvements over those that use only benefits. Variations across the heterogeneous surfaces of costs and benefits create opportunities for fuel treatments to maximize the expected averted loss of benefits. By targeting these opportunities we demonstrate how incorporating costs in fuel treatment prioritization can improve the outcome of fuel treatment planning.

Lead exposure and birth outcomes in five communities in Shoshone County, Idaho.

PubMed

Berkowitz, Zahava; Price-Green, Patricia; Bove, Frank J; Kaye, Wendy E

2006-03-01

This study examined birth outcomes in five towns in Shoshone County, Idaho, where residents were exposed to high levels of lead in air emissions during a 6-month period after a fire had damaged the main baghouse (pollution-control device) of a local lead smelter plant in September 1973. We studied birth certificate data of 169,878 live singleton infants born to mothers who resided in Idaho at the time of delivery. The outcomes evaluated were preterm infants, small-for-gestational-age (SGA) infants, low birthweight among term infants (TLBW), and mean birthweight among term infants (TMBW). The study compared births in the five towns in Shoshone County (exposed group) to births in the rest of Idaho during three exposure periods: "pre-fire," January 1, 1970-August 31, 1973; "high exposure," September 1, 1973-December 31, 1974; and "post-fire," January 1, 1975-December 31, 1981. During the high-exposure period, the exposed group had an increased prevalence of TLBW (OR=2.4; 90% CI: 1.6-3.6) and SGA (OR=1.9; 90% CI: 1.3-2.8) compared with the rest of Idaho. During the pre- and post-fire periods, the ORs for TLBW were 0.8 and 1.3, respectively, and for SGA, 1.0, and 1.3, respectively. During the high-exposure period, TMBW for the exposed group was 71 g lower than in the comparison group. The TMBW in the exposed group was 8 g lower in the pre-fire period and 26 g lower in the post-fire period than in the comparison group. The study found no increased risk for preterm birth in the exposed group. Maternal exposures to airborne lead emissions appeared to be associated with increased risks for SGA, TLBW, and reduced TMBW.

Preventing deaths and injuries from house fires: a cost–benefit analysis of a community-based smoke alarm installation programme

PubMed Central

Yellman, Merissa A; Peterson, Cora; McCoy, Mary A; Stephens-Stidham, Shelli; Caton, Emily; Barnard, Jeffrey J; Padgett, Ted O; Florence, Curtis; Istre, Gregory R

2017-01-01

Background Operation Installation (OI), a community-based smoke alarm installation programme in Dallas, Texas, targets houses in high-risk urban census tracts. Residents of houses that received OI installation (or programme houses) had 68% fewer medically treated house fire injuries (non-fatal and fatal) compared with residents of non-programme houses over an average of 5.2 years of follow-up during an effectiveness evaluation conducted from 2001 to 2011. Objective To estimate the cost–benefit of OI. Methods A mathematical model incorporated programme cost and effectiveness data as directly observed in OI. The estimated cost per smoke alarm installed was based on a retrospective analysis of OI expenditures from administrative records, 2006–2011. Injury incidence assumptions for a population that had the OI programme compared with the same population without the OI programme was based on the previous OI effectiveness study, 2001–2011. Unit costs for medical care and lost productivity associated with fire injuries were from a national public database. Results From a combined payers’ perspective limited to direct programme and medical costs, the estimated incremental cost per fire injury averted through the OI installation programme was $128,800 (2013 US$). When a conservative estimate of lost productivity among victims was included, the incremental cost per fire injury averted was negative, suggesting long-term cost savings from the programme. The OI programme from 2001 to 2011 resulted in an estimated net savings of $3.8 million, or a $3.21 return on investment for every dollar spent on the programme using a societal cost perspective. Conclusions Community smoke alarm installation programmes could be cost-beneficial in high-fire-risk neighbourhoods. PMID:28183740

Childhood asthma and indoor woodsmoke from cooking in Guatemala.

PubMed

Schei, Morten A; Hessen, Jens O; Smith, Kirk R; Bruce, Nigel; McCracken, John; Lopez, Victorina

2004-01-01

We estimated the prevalence and severity of asthma, and the association with cooking on open wood fires, as preparation for a large-scale randomized field trial on effects of indoor air pollution and child health. This is one of the first systematic studies of asthma and indoor wood-smoke pollution and to our knowledge the first asthma study in a purely indigeneous population in Latin America. The mothers of 1058 children aged 4-6 years were interviewed, using the standardized ISAAC (International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood) procedures and questionnaire. The study population is a Mam-speaking (Maya), indigenous group living at relatively high altitude (2000 m) in Western Guatemalan Highlands. We found that asthma prevalence is low among indigenous children in Guatemala, compared to other populations in Latin America. Only 3.3% of the children reported wheezing symptoms in the last 12 months, and 72% wheezing symptoms ever. The majority of the current wheezers had at least one of the criteria for severe asthma. The prevalence of all the symptoms of asthma was higher in children from households that used open fires compared to improved stoves with chimneys. In a logistic regression model, use of open fire for cooking was a significant risk factor for a number of asthma symptoms, with odds ratios varying from 2.0 to 3.5. Among the different cooking technologies (1-improved stove with chimney, 2-mixture of gas and open fire, 3-open fire) trends of higher prevalence with more pollution was found for some of the symptoms. Hence use of open fire for cooking, may be an important risk factor for asthma symptoms and severity.

Factors affecting fuel break effectiveness in the control of large fires on the Los Padres National Forest, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Brennan, Teresa J.

2011-01-01

As wildfires have increased in frequency and extent, so have the number of homes developed in the wildland-urban interface. In California, the predominant approach to mitigating fire risk is construction of fuel breaks, but there has been little empirical study of their role in controlling large fires.We constructed a spatial database of fuel breaks on the Los Padres National Forest in southern California to better understand characteristics of fuel breaks that affect the behaviour of large fires and to map where fires and fuel breaks most commonly intersect. We evaluated whether fires stopped or crossed over fuel breaks over a 28-year period and compared the outcomes with physical characteristics of the sites, weather and firefighting activities during the fire event. Many fuel breaks never intersected fires, but others intersected several, primarily in historically fire-prone areas. Fires stopped at fuel breaks 46% of the time, almost invariably owing to fire suppression activities. Firefighter access to treatments, smaller fires and longer fuel breaks were significant direct influences, and younger vegetation and fuel break maintenance indirectly improved the outcome by facilitating firefighter access. This study illustrates the importance of strategic location of fuel breaks because they have been most effective where they provided access for firefighting activities.

Western Spruce Budworm Outbreaks Did Not Increase Fire Risk over the Last Three Centuries: A Dendrochronological Analysis of Inter-Disturbance Synergism

PubMed Central

Flower, Aquila; G. Gavin, Daniel; Heyerdahl, Emily K.; Parsons, Russell A.; Cohn, Gregory M.

2014-01-01

Insect outbreaks are often assumed to increase the severity or probability of fire occurrence through increased fuel availability, while fires may in turn alter susceptibility of forests to subsequent insect outbreaks through changes in the spatial distribution of suitable host trees. However, little is actually known about the potential synergisms between these natural disturbances. Assessing inter-disturbance synergism is challenging due to the short length of historical records and the confounding influences of land use and climate changes on natural disturbance dynamics. We used dendrochronological methods to reconstruct defoliator outbreaks and fire occurrence at ten sites along a longitudinal transect running from central Oregon to western Montana. We assessed synergism between disturbance types, analyzed long-term changes in disturbance dynamics, and compared these disturbance histories with dendroclimatological moisture availability records to quantify the influence of moisture availability on disturbances. After approximately 1890, fires were largely absent and defoliator outbreaks became longer-lasting, more frequent, and more synchronous at our sites. Fires were more likely to occur during warm-dry years, while outbreaks were most likely to begin near the end of warm-dry periods. Our results show no discernible impact of defoliation events on subsequent fire risk. Any effect from the addition of fuels during defoliation events appears to be too small to detect given the overriding influence of climatic variability. We therefore propose that if there is any relationship between the two disturbances, it is a subtle synergistic relationship wherein climate determines the probability of occurrence of each disturbance type, and each disturbance type damps the severity, but does not alter the probability of occurrence, of the other disturbance type over long time scales. Although both disturbance types may increase in frequency or extent in response to future warming, our records show no precedent that western spruce budworm outbreaks will increase future fire risk. PMID:25526633

Western spruce budworm outbreaks did not increase fire risk over the last three centuries: a dendrochronological analysis of inter-disturbance synergism.

PubMed

Flower, Aquila; Gavin, Daniel G; Heyerdahl, Emily K; Parsons, Russell A; Cohn, Gregory M

2014-01-01

Insect outbreaks are often assumed to increase the severity or probability of fire occurrence through increased fuel availability, while fires may in turn alter susceptibility of forests to subsequent insect outbreaks through changes in the spatial distribution of suitable host trees. However, little is actually known about the potential synergisms between these natural disturbances. Assessing inter-disturbance synergism is challenging due to the short length of historical records and the confounding influences of land use and climate changes on natural disturbance dynamics. We used dendrochronological methods to reconstruct defoliator outbreaks and fire occurrence at ten sites along a longitudinal transect running from central Oregon to western Montana. We assessed synergism between disturbance types, analyzed long-term changes in disturbance dynamics, and compared these disturbance histories with dendroclimatological moisture availability records to quantify the influence of moisture availability on disturbances. After approximately 1890, fires were largely absent and defoliator outbreaks became longer-lasting, more frequent, and more synchronous at our sites. Fires were more likely to occur during warm-dry years, while outbreaks were most likely to begin near the end of warm-dry periods. Our results show no discernible impact of defoliation events on subsequent fire risk. Any effect from the addition of fuels during defoliation events appears to be too small to detect given the overriding influence of climatic variability. We therefore propose that if there is any relationship between the two disturbances, it is a subtle synergistic relationship wherein climate determines the probability of occurrence of each disturbance type, and each disturbance type damps the severity, but does not alter the probability of occurrence, of the other disturbance type over long time scales. Although both disturbance types may increase in frequency or extent in response to future warming, our records show no precedent that western spruce budworm outbreaks will increase future fire risk.

77 FR 10576 - Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-22

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0295] Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA AGENCY.../Shutdown Fire PRA.'' In response to request from members of the public, the NRC is extending the public... risk assessment (PRA) method for quantitatively analyzing fire risk in commercial nuclear power plants...

Managing the Library Fire Risk.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morris, John

A discussion of fire risks, causes, prevention, and salvage in libraries is presented in text and photographs. A description of some historic library fires demonstrates the value of adequate protection and preparedness programs to minimize loss and damage. The need for fire retardant construction and protection from valdalism and arson are…

Studying fire mitigation strategies in multi-ownership landscapes: balancing the management of fire-dependent ecosystems and fire risk

Treesearch

Brian R. Sturtevant; Brian R. Miranda; Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Eric J. Gustafson; Robert M. Scheller

2009-01-01

Public forests are surrounded by land over which agency managers have no control, and whose owners expect the public forest to be a "good neighbor." Fire risk abatement on multi-owner landscapes containing flammable but fire-dependent ecosystems epitomizes the complexities of managing public lands. We report a case study that applies a landscape disturbance...

Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia, South Pacific.

PubMed

Gomez, Céline; Mangeas, Morgan; Curt, Thomas; Ibanez, Thomas; Munzinger, Jérôme; Dumas, Pascal; Jérémy, André; Despinoy, Marc; Hély, Christelle

2015-01-01

Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one-off event model and a multi-event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic-free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one-off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one-off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of biodiversity facing wildfires.

Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia, South Pacific

PubMed Central

Gomez, Céline; Mangeas, Morgan; Curt, Thomas; Ibanez, Thomas; Munzinger, Jérôme; Dumas, Pascal; Jérémy, André; Despinoy, Marc; Hély, Christelle

2015-01-01

Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one-off event model and a multi-event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic-free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one-off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one-off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of biodiversity facing wildfires. PMID:25691965

Co-Occurring Non-Suicidal Self-Injury and Firesetting Among At-Risk Adolescents: Experiences of Negative Life Events, Mental Health Problems, Substance Use, and Suicidality.

PubMed

Tanner, Alicia; Hasking, Penelope; Martin, Graham

2016-01-01

Co-occurring internalizing and externalizing problem behaviors in adolescence typically marks more severe psychopathology and poorer psychosocial functioning than engagement in a single problem behavior. We examined the negative life events, emotional and behavioral problems, substance use, and suicidality of school-based adolescents reporting both non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) and repetitive firesetting, compared to those engaging in either behavior alone. Differences in NSSI characteristics among self-injurers who set fires, compared to those who did not, were also assessed. A total of 384 at-risk adolescents aged 12-18 years (58.8% female) completed self-report questionnaires measuring NSSI, firesetting, and key variables of interest. Results suggest that adolescents who both self-injure and deliberately set fires represent a low-prevalence but distinct high-risk subgroup, characterized by increased rates of interpersonal difficulties, mental health problems and substance use, more severe self-injury, and suicidal behavior. Implications for prevention and early intervention initiatives are discussed.

Skin antiseptics and the risk of operating theatre fires.

PubMed

Spigelman, Allan D; Swan, Judith R

2005-07-01

Following press reports of patients catching fire or receiving chemical burns in the operating theatre, a review was conducted on the flammability of skin antiseptics. The purpose of the paper was to clarify confusion regarding povidine-iodine (Betadine), which had been reported as being flammable, and also to determine the use of alcohol-based solutions in the Hunter Area Health Service. A risk assessment was conducted and risk reduction strategies outlined. Risk assessment was made following a literature review and an audit of 10 operating theatres in the Hunter Area Health Service. Risk for operating room fires from alcohol-based skin antiseptics was confirmed. Antiseptics in aqueous solutions only smoulder. The Hunter Health survey indicated that although alcohol-based solutions were not used in operating theatres, they were used in anaesthetic bays for insertion of epidural and central line catheters. Strategies to reduce the risk of fire include discontinuation of use of alcohol-based skin antiseptics in operating theatres; using fire retardant surgical drapes; installing over-current protection devices on electrical equipment; minimizing flammable conditions by avoiding nitrous oxide and using the lowest required concentration of inspired oxygen; use of non-flammable cuffed endotracheal tubes; education and training of operating theatre personnel in fire hazards. Operating theatre fires continue to be a major risk for patient safety. In order to reduce this risk, the strategies outlined here should be followed.

Fire safety in the operating room.

PubMed

Rinder, Christine Stowe

2008-12-01

Elimination of flammable anesthetic gases has had little effect on operating-room fires except to change their etiology. Electrocautery and lasers, in an oxygen-enriched environment, can ignite even the most fire-resistant materials, including the patient, and the fire triad possibilities in the operating room are nearly limitless. This review will: identify operating room contents capable of acting as ignition/oxidizer/fuel sources, highlight operating room items that are uniquely potent fire triad contributors, and operating room identify settings where fire risk is enhanced by proximity of triad components in time or space. Anesthesiologists are cognizant of the risk of airway surgery fires due to laser ignition of the endotracheal tube and/or its contents. Recently, however, head/neck surgery under monitored anesthesia care has emerged as a high-risk setting for operating room fires; burn injuries represent 20% of monitored anesthesia care-related malpractice claims, 95% of which involved head/neck surgery. Operating room fires are infrequent but catastrophic. Operating room fire prevention depends on: (a)understanding how fire triad elements interact to create a fire, (b) recognizing how standard operating-room equipment, materials, and supplemental oxygen can become one of those elements, and (c) vigilance for circumstances that bring fire triad elements into close proximity.

Fire risk in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Seth Howard

Fire is an integral part of ecosystems in the western United States. Decades of fire suppression have led to (unnaturally) large accumulations of fuel in some forest communities, such as the lower elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada. Urban sprawl into fire prone chaparral vegetation in southern California has put human lives at risk and the decreased fire return intervals have put the vegetation community at risk of type conversion. This research examines the factors affecting fire risk in two of the dominant landscapes in the state of California, chaparral and inland coniferous forests. Live fuel moisture (LFM) is important for fire ignition, spread rate, and intensity in chaparral. LFM maps were generated for Los Angeles County by developing and then inverting robust cross-validated regression equations from time series field data and vegetation indices (VIs) and phenological metrics from MODIS data. Fire fuels, including understory fuels which are not visible to remote sensing instruments, were mapped in Yosemite National Park using the random forests decision tree algorithm and climatic, topographic, remotely sensed, and fire history variables. Combining the disparate data sources served to improve classification accuracies. The models were inverted to produce maps of fuel models and fuel amounts, and these showed that fire fuel amounts are highest in the low elevation forests that have been most affected by fire suppression impacting the natural fire regime. Wildland fires in chaparral commonly burn in late summer or fall when LFM is near its annual low, however, the Jesusita Fire burned in early May of 2009, when LFM was still relatively high. The HFire fire spread model was used to simulate the growth of the Jesusita Fire using LFM maps derived from imagery acquired at the time of the fire and imagery acquired in late August to determine how much different the fire would have been if it had occurred later in the year. Simulated fires were 1.5 times larger, and the fire reached the wildland urban interface three hours earlier, when using August LFM.

Wild Fire Risk Map in the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasanbat, Elbegjargal; Lkhamjav, Ochirkhuyag

2016-06-01

Grassland fire is a cause of major disturbance to ecosystems and economies throughout the world. This paper investigated to identify risk zone of wildfire distributions on the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. The study selected variables for wildfire risk assessment using a combination of data collection, including Social Economic, Climate, Geographic Information Systems, Remotely sensed imagery, and statistical yearbook information. Moreover, an evaluation of the result is used field validation data and assessment. The data evaluation resulted divided by main three group factors Environmental, Social Economic factor, Climate factor and Fire information factor into eleven input variables, which were classified into five categories by risk levels important criteria and ranks. All of the explanatory variables were integrated into spatial a model and used to estimate the wildfire risk index. Within the index, five categories were created, based on spatial statistics, to adequately assess respective fire risk: very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low and very low. Approximately more than half, 68 percent of the study area was predicted accuracy to good within the very high, high risk and moderate risk zones. The percentages of actual fires in each fire risk zone were as follows: very high risk, 42 percent; high risk, 26 percent; moderate risk, 13 percent; low risk, 8 percent; and very low risk, 11 percent. The main overall accuracy to correct prediction from the model was 62 percent. The model and results could be support in spatial decision making support system processes and in preventative wildfire management strategies. Also it could be help to improve ecological and biodiversity conservation management.

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Calkin, Dave E

2011-08-01

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Cost effectiveness analysis of a smoke alarm giveaway program in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

PubMed

Haddix, A C; Mallonee, S; Waxweiler, R; Douglas, M R

2001-12-01

To estimate the cost effectiveness of the Lifesavers Residential Fire and Injury Prevention Program (LRFIPP), a smoke alarm giveaway program. In 1990, the LRFIPP distributed over 10,000 smoke alarms in an area of Oklahoma City at high risk for residential fire injuries. The program also included fire prevention education and battery replacement components. A cost effectiveness analysis was conducted from the societal and health care systems perspectives. The study compared program costs with the total costs of medical treatment and productivity losses averted over a five year period. Fatal and non-fatal residential fire related injuries prevented were estimated from surveillance data. Medical costs were obtained from chart reviews of patients with fire related injuries that occurred during the pre-intervention period. During the five years post-intervention, it is estimated that the LRFIPP prevented 20 fatal and 24 non-fatal injuries. From the societal perspective, the total discounted cost of the program was $531,000. Total discounted net savings exceeded $15 million. From the health care system perspective, the total discounted net savings were almost $1 million and would have a net saving even if program effectiveness was reduced by 64%. The program was effective in reducing fatal and non-fatal residential fire related injuries and was cost saving. Similar programs in other high risk areas would be good investments even if program effectiveness was lower than that achieved by the LRFIPP.

Understanding the long-term fire risks in forests affected by sudden oak death

Treesearch

Yana Valachovic; Chris Lee; Radoslaw Glebocki; Hugh Scanlon; J. Morgan Varner; David Rizzo

2010-01-01

It is assumed that large numbers of dead and down tanoak in forests infested by Phytophthora ramorum contribute to increased fire hazard risk and fuel loading. We studied the impact of P. ramorum infestation on surface fuel loading, potential fire hazard, and potential fire behavior in Douglas-fir- (Pseudotsuga...

Risk Factors for Rural Residential Fires

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allareddy, Veerasathpurush; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Yang, Jingzhen; Zwerling, Craig

2007-01-01

Context and Purpose: Rural households report high fire-related mortality and injury rates, but few studies have examined the risk factors for fires. This study aims to identify occupant and household characteristics that are associated with residential fires in a rural cohort. Methods: Of 1,005 households contacted in a single rural county, 691…

Using risk analysis to reveal opportunities for the management of unplanned ignitions in wilderness

Treesearch

Kevin Barnett; Carol Miller; Tyron J. Venn

2016-01-01

A goal of fire management in wilderness is to allow fire to play its natural ecological role without intervention. Unfortunately, most unplanned ignitions in wilderness are suppressed, in part because of the risk they might pose to values outside of the wilderness. We capitalize on recent advances in fire risk analysis to demonstrate a risk-based approach for revealing...

Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation by passive fire protection.

PubMed

Paltrinieri, Nicola; Landucci, Gabriele; Molag, Menso; Bonvicini, Sarah; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

2009-08-15

The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protections was investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements model. The results of mathematical simulations of real scale fire engulfment scenarios that may follow accidents involving LPG tankers proved the effectiveness of the thermal protections in preventing the "fired" BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion) scenario. The presence of a thermal coating greatly increases the "time to failure", providing a time lapse that in the European experience may be considered sufficient to allow the start of effective mitigation actions by fire brigades. The results obtained were used to calculate the expected reduction of individual and societal risk due to LPG transportation in real case scenarios. The analysis confirmed that the introduction of passive fire protections turns out in a significant reduction of risk, up to an order of magnitude in the case of individual risk and of about 50% if the expectation value is considered. Thus, the adoption of passive fire protections, not compulsory in European regulations, may be an effective technical measure for risk reduction, and may contribute to achieve the control of "major accidents hazards" cited by the European legislation.

Development at the wildland-urban interface and the mitigation of forest-fire risk.

PubMed

Spyratos, Vassilis; Bourgeron, Patrick S; Ghil, Michael

2007-09-04

This work addresses the impacts of development at the wildland-urban interface on forest fires that spread to human habitats. Catastrophic fires in the western United States and elsewhere make these impacts a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists, and the general public. Using a simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, we show that fire size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability and house density. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition. Thus, the density and flammability of buildings should be taken into account when assessing fire risk at the wildland-urban interface. Moreover, our results highlight ways for regulation at this interface to help mitigate fire risk.

Applying the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) to support risk-informed decision making: The Gold Pan Fire, Bitterroot National Forest, Montana, USA

Treesearch

Erin K. Noonan-Wright; Tonja S. Opperman

2015-01-01

In response to federal wildfire policy changes, risk-informed decision-making by way of improved decision support, is increasingly becoming a component of managing wildfires. As fire incidents escalate in size and complexity, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) provides support with different analytical tools as fire conditions change. We demonstrate the...

Estimation of the Forest Fire Risk in Indonesia based on Satellite Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, H.; Takahashi, Y.; Hashimoto, A.; Akita, M.; Hasegawa, Y.; Ogino, Y.; Naruse, N.; Takahashi, Y.

2016-12-01

To minimize forest fires in tropical area is extremely important, because the fire has a large impact on global warming, biodiversity, and human society. In the previous study, Shimada and Ishibashi monitored the ground-water lever from the value of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained in Kalimantan Island to predict where the forest fires will happen. We have developed a method to map the forest fire risk by calculating the value of Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index 2 (MSAVI2). Moreover, we investigated the relation between the distance from a road as an artificial factor and the occurrence of the fire.First, calculating the MSAVI2 from Landsat 7 and 8 images of August, 2015 around Martapura in South Sumatra, Indonesia, we mapped the area where the plants were stressed. Next, we checked the degrees of matching between the area of low MSAVI2 and the forest fire points.As a result, half of the fires happened in the area having the MSAVI2 values of 0.20 to 0.35. When we focused on only the area which is over 5 kilometers far from a road, the degrees of matching became higher; it rose up to 62 percent.Those results indicate that the fire risks relate to the dry area calculated as low MSAVI2 in the case with less human activities. We need to consider an effect of artificial factors to estimate the whole risk of forest fire.In conclusion, the map of forest fire risk by calculating the value of MSAVI2 is applicable to an area with less artificial factor, while we have to take the effect of artificial fire factor into the consideration.

Wildfire Policy in Mediterranean France: How Far is it Efficient and Sustainable?

PubMed

Curt, Thomas; Frejaville, Thibaut

2018-03-01

A new fire policy reinforcing aggressive fire suppression was established in Mediterranean France in response to the devastating wildfires of the 1990s, but to what extent this has changed fire activity yet remains poorly understood. For this purpose, we compared the number and location of ignitions and of burned areas between two 20-year periods (1975-1994 vs. 1995-2014), in parallel to the changes in fuel covering, human activity promoting ignitions, and fire weather. The number of fires decreased almost continuously since 1975, but sharply after 1994, suggesting an effect of better fire prevention due to the new policy. But the major change in fire activity is a considerable reduction in fire size and burned areas after 1994, especially during summer and in the most fire-prone places, in response to massive efforts put into fire suppression. These reductions have occurred while the covering by fuel biomass, the human pressure on ignition, and the fire weather index increased, thus making the study area more hazardous. Our results suggest that a strategy of aggressive fire suppression has great potential for counterbalancing the effects of climate changes and human activities and for controlling fire activity in the short term. However, we discuss whether such a suppression-oriented approach is sustainable in the context of global changes, which cast new fire challenges as demonstrated by the devastative fires of 2003 and 2016. We advocate for a more comprehensive fire policy to come. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Monitoring Of Air Quality Parameters For Construction Of Fire Risk Detection Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romancov, I. I.; Dashkovky, A. G.; Panin, V. F.; Melkov, D. N.

2017-01-01

The analysis of fire developmental process is given, which showed that there are seven stages of fire development, a set of phenomena (factors, signs) of fire risk condition, characterized by a set of defined parameters, corresponds to each stage. Observed that the registration of high staging factors (high ambient temperature, content of CO2, etc.) means the registration of actual low staging fire (thermal destruction of materials gases, fumes, etc.) - fire risk situation. It is shown that the decrease of registered factor staging leads to construction of fire preventive and diagnostic systems as the lower is registered stage, the more uncertain is connection between the fact of its detection and a fire. It is indicated that with development of electronic equipment the staging of fire situations factors used for detection is reducing in whole, and also it is noted that for each control object it is necessary to choose (identify) the optimal factor, in particular, in many ways the optimal factor for aircrafts are smokes and their TV image.

Refugee camps, fire disasters and burn injuries.

PubMed

Atiyeh, B S; Gunn, S W A

2017-09-30

In the past five years, no fewer than 15 conflicts have brought unspeakable tragedy and misery to millions across the world. At present, nearly 20 people are forcibly displaced every minute as a result of conflict or persecution, representing a crisis of historic proportions. Many displaced persons end up in camps generally developing in an impromptu fashion, and are totally dependent on humanitarian aid. The precarious condition of temporary installations puts the nearly 700 refugee camps worldwide at high risk of disease, child soldier and terrorist recruitment, and physical and sexual violence. Poorly planned, densely packed refugee settlements are also one of the most pathogenic environments possible, representing high risk for fires with potential for uncontrolled fire spread and development over sometimes quite large areas. Moreover, providing healthcare to refugees comes with its own unique challenges. Internationally recognized guidelines for minimum standards in shelters and settlements have been set, however they remain largely inapplicable. As for fire risk reduction, and despite the high number of fire incidents, it is not evident that fire safety can justify a higher priority. In that regard, a number of often conflicting influences will need to be considered. The greatest challenge remains in balancing the various risks, such as the need/cost of shelter against the fire risk/cost of fire protection.

Refugee camps, fire disasters and burn injuries

PubMed Central

Atiyeh, B.S.; Gunn, S.W.A.

2017-01-01

Summary In the past five years, no fewer than 15 conflicts have brought unspeakable tragedy and misery to millions across the world. At present, nearly 20 people are forcibly displaced every minute as a result of conflict or persecution, representing a crisis of historic proportions. Many displaced persons end up in camps generally developing in an impromptu fashion, and are totally dependent on humanitarian aid. The precarious condition of temporary installations puts the nearly 700 refugee camps worldwide at high risk of disease, child soldier and terrorist recruitment, and physical and sexual violence. Poorly planned, densely packed refugee settlements are also one of the most pathogenic environments possible, representing high risk for fires with potential for uncontrolled fire spread and development over sometimes quite large areas. Moreover, providing healthcare to refugees comes with its own unique challenges. Internationally recognized guidelines for minimum standards in shelters and settlements have been set, however they remain largely inapplicable. As for fire risk reduction, and despite the high number of fire incidents, it is not evident that fire safety can justify a higher priority. In that regard, a number of often conflicting influences will need to be considered. The greatest challenge remains in balancing the various risks, such as the need/cost of shelter against the fire risk/cost of fire protection. PMID:29849526

A qualitative and quantitative analysis of risk perception and treatment options as related to wildfires in the USDA FS Region 3 National Forests

Treesearch

Ingrid M. Martin; Wade E. Martin; Carol B. Raish

2011-01-01

As the incidence of devastating fires rises, managing the risk posed by these fires has become critical. This report provides important information to examine the ways that different groups or disaster subcultures develop the mentalities or perceived realities that affect their views and responses concerning risk and disaster preparedness. Fire risk beliefs and...

Creation and implementation of a certification system for insurability and fire risk classification for forest plantations

Treesearch

Veronica Loewe M.; Victor Vargas; Juan Miguel Ruiz; Andrea Alvarez C.; Felipe Lobo Q.

2015-01-01

Currently, the Chilean insurance market sells forest fire insurance policies and agricultural weather risk policies. However, access to forest fire insurance is difficult for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), with a significant proportion (close to 50%) of forest plantations being without coverage. Indeed, the insurance market that sells forest fire insurance...

Fire Severity and Intensity During Spring Burning in Natural and Masticated Mixed Shrub Woodlands

Treesearch

Tim Bradley; Jennifer Gibson; Windy Bunn

2006-01-01

Fire risk is an ever present management concern in many urban interface regions. To mitigate this risk, land management agencies have expanded their options beyond prescribed fire to include vegetation mastication and other mechanical fuel treatments. This research project examined fire severity and intensity in masticated and unmanipulated units that were burned in...

Pediatric fire deaths in Ontario

PubMed Central

Chen, Yingming Amy; Bridgman-Acker, Karen; Edwards, Jim; Lauwers, Albert Edward

2011-01-01

Abstract Objective To identify the predictors of residential fire deaths in the Ontario pediatric population using systematically collected data from the Office of the Chief Coroner. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Ontario. Participants Children younger than 16 years of age who died in accidental residential fires in Ontario between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2006. Main outcome measures The study retrospectively reviewed the coroner’s case files for 60 subjects who qualified according to the selection criteria. Reviewed documents included the coroner’s investigation statements, autopsy reports, toxicology reports, fire marshal’s reports, police reports, and Children’s Aid Society (CAS) reports. Information on a range of demographic, behavioural, social, and environmental factors was collected. Statistical tests, including relative risk, relative risk confidence intervals, and χ2 tests were performed to determine the correlation between factors of interest and to establish their significance. Results Thirty-nine fire events resulting in 60 deaths occurred between 2001 and 2006. Fire play and electrical failures were the top 2 causes of residential fires. More fires occurred during the night (midnight to 9 am) than during the day (9 am to midnight). Nighttime fires were most commonly due to electrical failures or unattended candles, whereas daytime fires were primarily caused by unsupervised fire play and stove fires. Smoke alarms were present at 32 of 39 fire events (82%), but overall alarm functionality was only 54%. Children from families with a history of CAS involvement were approximately 32 times more likely to die in fires. Conclusion Risk factors for pediatric fire death in Ontario include smoke alarm functionality, fire play, fire escape behaviour, and CAS involvement. Efforts to prevent residential fire deaths should target these populations and risk factors, and primary care physicians should consider education around these issues as a primary preventive strategy for families with young children. PMID:21571705

Reducing hazardous fuels on nonindustrial private forests: factors influencing landowner decisions

Treesearch

A. Paige Fischer

2011-01-01

In mixed-ownership landscapes, fuels conditions on private lands have implications for fire risk on public lands and vice versa. The success of efforts to mitigate fire risk depends on the extent, efficacy, and coordination of treatments on nearby ownerships. Understanding factors in forest owners' decisions to address the risk of wildland fire is therefore...

Using ArcObjects for automating fireshed assessments and analyzing wildfire risk

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Bernhard Bahro; Mark Finney

2006-01-01

Firesheds are geographic units used by the Forest Service to delineate areas with similar fire regimes, fire history, and wildland fire risk issues. Fireshed assessment is a collaborative process where specialists design fuel treatments to mitigate wildfire risk. Fireshed assessments are an iterative process where fuel treatments are proposed for specific stands based...

16 CFR 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. 1145.3 Section 1145.3 Commercial Practices...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

16 CFR 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. 1145.3 Section 1145.3 Commercial Practices...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

16 CFR 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. 1145.3 Section 1145.3 Commercial Practices...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

16 CFR 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. 1145.3 Section 1145.3 Commercial Practices...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

Fire characteristics associated with firefighter injury on large federal wildland fires.

PubMed

Britton, Carla; Lynch, Charles F; Torner, James; Peek-Asa, Corinne

2013-02-01

Wildland fires present many injury hazards to firefighters. We estimate injury rates and identify fire-related factors associated with injury. Data from the National Interagency Fire Center from 2003 to 2007 provided the number of injuries in which the firefighter could not return to his or her job assignment, person-days worked, and fire characteristics (year, region, season, cause, fuel type, resistance to control, and structures destroyed). We assessed fire-level risk factors of having at least one reported injury using logistic regression. Negative binomial regression was used to examine incidence rate ratios associated with fire-level risk factors. Of 867 fires, 9.5% required the most complex management and 24.7% required the next-highest level of management. Fires most often occurred in the western United States (82.8%), during the summer (69.6%), caused by lightening (54.9%). Timber was the most frequent fuel source (40.2%). Peak incident management level, person-days of exposure, and the fire's resistance to control were significantly related to the odds of a fire having at least one reported injury. However, the most complex fires had a lower injury incidence rate than less complex fires. Although fire complexity and the number of firefighters were associated with the risk for at least one reported injury, the more experienced and specialized firefighting teams had lower injury incidence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk and Cooperation: Managing Hazardous Fuel in Mixed Ownership Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, A. Paige; Charnley, Susan

2012-06-01

Managing natural processes at the landscape scale to promote forest health is important, especially in the case of wildfire, where the ability of a landowner to protect his or her individual parcel is constrained by conditions on neighboring ownerships. However, management at a landscape scale is also challenging because it requires cooperation on plans and actions that cross ownership boundaries. Cooperation depends on people's beliefs and norms about reciprocity and perceptions of the risks and benefits of interacting with others. Using logistic regression tests on mail survey data and qualitative analysis of interviews with landowners, we examined the relationship between perceived wildfire risk and cooperation in the management of hazardous fuel by nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) owners in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Oregon. We found that NIPF owners who perceived a risk of wildfire to their properties, and perceived that conditions on nearby public forestlands contributed to this risk, were more likely to have cooperated with public agencies in the past to reduce fire risk than owners who did not perceive a risk of wildfire to their properties. Wildfire risk perception was not associated with past cooperation among NIPF owners. The greater social barriers to private-private cooperation than to private-public cooperation, and perceptions of more hazardous conditions on public compared with private forestlands may explain this difference. Owners expressed a strong willingness to cooperate with others in future cross-boundary efforts to reduce fire risk, however. We explore barriers to cooperative forest management across ownerships, and identify models of cooperation that hold potential for future collective action to reduce wildfire risk.

Risk and cooperation: managing hazardous fuel in mixed ownership landscapes.

PubMed

Fischer, A Paige; Charnley, Susan

2012-06-01

Managing natural processes at the landscape scale to promote forest health is important, especially in the case of wildfire, where the ability of a landowner to protect his or her individual parcel is constrained by conditions on neighboring ownerships. However, management at a landscape scale is also challenging because it requires cooperation on plans and actions that cross ownership boundaries. Cooperation depends on people's beliefs and norms about reciprocity and perceptions of the risks and benefits of interacting with others. Using logistic regression tests on mail survey data and qualitative analysis of interviews with landowners, we examined the relationship between perceived wildfire risk and cooperation in the management of hazardous fuel by nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) owners in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Oregon. We found that NIPF owners who perceived a risk of wildfire to their properties, and perceived that conditions on nearby public forestlands contributed to this risk, were more likely to have cooperated with public agencies in the past to reduce fire risk than owners who did not perceive a risk of wildfire to their properties. Wildfire risk perception was not associated with past cooperation among NIPF owners. The greater social barriers to private-private cooperation than to private-public cooperation, and perceptions of more hazardous conditions on public compared with private forestlands may explain this difference. Owners expressed a strong willingness to cooperate with others in future cross-boundary efforts to reduce fire risk, however. We explore barriers to cooperative forest management across ownerships, and identify models of cooperation that hold potential for future collective action to reduce wildfire risk.

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Radeloff, V.C.; Stewart, S.I.; Hawbaker, T.J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfire risk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwestern Wisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfire risk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfire risk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfire risk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Reduced frequency and severity of residential fires following delivery of fire prevention education by on-duty fire fighters: cluster randomized controlled study.

PubMed

Clare, Joseph; Garis, Len; Plecas, Darryl; Jennings, Charles

2012-04-01

In 2008, Surrey Fire Services, British Columbia, commenced a firefighter-delivered, door-to-door fire-prevention education and smoke alarm examination/installation initiative with the intention of reducing the frequency and severity of residential structure fires in the City of Surrey. High-risk zones within the city were identified and 18,473 home visits were undertaken across seven temporal delivery cohorts (13.8% of non-apartment dwellings in the city). The frequency and severity of fires pre- and post- the home visit intervention was examined in comparison to randomized high-risk cluster controls. Overall, the frequency of fires was found to have reduced in the city overall, however, the reduction in the intervention cohorts was significantly larger than for controls. Furthermore, when fires did occur within the intervention cohorts, smoke detectors were activated more frequently and the fires were confined to the object of origin more often post-home visits. No equivalent pattern was observed for the cluster control. On-duty fire fighters can reduce the frequency and severity of residential fires through targeted, door-to-door distribution of fire prevention education in high-risk areas. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of wildfire simulation models for risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ager, A.; Finney, M.

2009-04-01

Wildfire simulation models are being widely used by fire and fuels specialists in the U.S. to support tactical and strategic decisions related to the mitigation of wildfire risk. Much of this application has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (M. Finney) that makes it computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and intensity maps over large areas (10,000 - 2,000,000 ha). The MTT algorithm is parallelized for multi-threaded processing and is imbedded in a number of research and applied fire modeling applications. High performance computers (e.g., 32-way 64 bit SMP) are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the 32 bit desktop FlamMap3 program (www.fire.org). Extensive testing has shown that this algorithm can replicate large fire boundaries in the heterogeneous landscapes that typify much of the wildlands in the western U.S. In this paper, we describe the application of the MTT algorithm to understand spatial patterns of burn probability (BP), and to analyze wildfire risk to key human and ecological values. The work is focused on a federally-managed 2,000,000 ha landscape in the central interior region of Oregon State, USA. The fire-prone study area encompasses a wide array of topography and fuel types and a number of highly valued resources that are susceptible to fire. We quantitatively defined risk as the product of the probability of a fire and the resulting consequence. Burn probabilities at specific intensity classes were estimated for each 100 x 100 m pixel by simulating 100,000 wildfires under burn conditions that replicated recent severe wildfire events that occurred under conditions where fire suppression was generally ineffective (97th percentile, August weather). We repeated the simulation under milder weather (70th percentile, August weather) to replicate a "wildland fire use scenario" where suppression is minimized to manage fires for fuel reduction. The average BP was calculated for these scenarios to examine variation within and among a number of key designated management units, including forest-urban interface, conservation areas, protected species habitat, municipal watersheds, recreation areas, and others. To quantify risk, we developed a number of loss-benefit functions using fire effects models that relate fire intensity to tree mortality and biomass consumption. We used these relationships to measure the change in highly-valued old forest, designated wildlife conservation areas, aboveground carbon, surface fuels, and other wildland values. The loss-benefit functions were then coupled with BP's for different intensity classes to estimate expected value change (risk) for each pixel. For a subset of the study area we also measured the change in risk from fuels management for selected resources. Estimates of BP, excluding non burnable fuels (water, rock), fro the simulations ranged from 0.00001 to 0.026 within the study area, with a mean value of 0.007. In comparison, the annual burn probability estimated from fire occurrence data within the study area (1910 - 2003) was 0.0022. The estimate from simulations represents the average probability of a random pixel burning from a single large fire that escapes suppression, hence some difference is expected. Variation in BP among designated conservation and fire protection units was relatively large and illustrated spatial differences in wildfire likelihood among highly values resources. For instance, among the 130 different forest-urban interface areas, average BP varied from 0.0001 to 0.02. Average BP for nesting sites used by the endangered Northern spotted owl averaged 0.04 and varied from 0.001 to 0.01. The marginal BP's for high fire intensities was higher for many of the conservation areas compared the surrounding managed forest. Conservation areas that were located on the lee side of non-burnable fuels such as lava flows and lakes showed markedly reduced BP. When wildfire probabilities were combined with habitat loss functions for the Northern spotted owl, we observed expected loss from a random wildfire event ranging from 0.0 to 9.4% with a mean value of 1.5%. Expected loss was strongly correlated with BP for owl habitat, apparently because fires at very low intensities caused understory mortality and reduced stand canopy closure below minimum levels. The effect of simulating strategic fuel treatments on a subunit of the area resulted in significant decrease in expected loss of owl habitat. The effect of changing weather from a severe to mild (97th to 70th) percentile weather resulted in a dramatic 8-fold drop in BP and reduced the average wildfire size. However, the reduction was not uniform with the departures well correlated with specific fuel models. In total, this work demonstrated the application of wildfire spread models to quantitative risk assessment for fuels management on federally-managed lands in the U.S. The analyses revealed spatial variation in BP that is useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and guiding other wildfire mitigation activities. The work also illuminated the conflict between biodiversity conservation efforts on federally-managed lands and the high wildfire risk on fire-prone landscapes.

Assessing the risk of ignition in the Russian far east within a modeling framework of fire threat.

PubMed

Loboda, Tatiana V; Csiszar, Ivan A

2007-04-01

The forests of high biological importance in the Russian Far East (RFE) have been experiencing increasing pressure from growing demands for natural resources under the changing economy of post-Soviet Russia. This pressure is further amplified by the rising threat of large and catastrophic fire occurrence, which threatens both the resources and the economic potential of the region. In this paper we introduce a conceptual Fire Threat Model (FTM) and use it to provide quantitative assessment of the risk of ignition in the Russian Far East. The remotely sensed data driven FTM is aimed at evaluating potential wildland fire occurrence and its impact and recovery potential for a given resource. This model is intended for use by resource managers to assist in assessing current levels of fire threat to a given resource, projecting the changes in fire threat under changing climate and land use, and evaluating the efficiency of various management approaches aimed at minimizing the fire impact. Risk of ignition (one of the major uncertainties within fire threat modeling) was analyzed using the MODIS active fire product. The risk of ignition in the RFE is shown to be highly variable in spatial and temporal domains. However, the number of ignition points is not directly proportional to the amount of fire occurrence in the area. Fire ignitions in the RFE are strongly linked to anthropogenic activity (transportation routes, settlements, and land use). An increase in the number of fire ignitions during summer months could be attributed to (1) disruption of the summer monsoons and subsequent changes in fire weather and (2) an increase in natural sources of fire ignitions.

Evaluating Fire Risk in the Northeastern United States in the Past, Present, and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, D.; Bradley, R. S.

2017-12-01

One poorly understood consequence of climate change is its effects on extreme events such as wildfires. Robust associations between wildfire frequency and climatic variability have been shown to exist, indicating that future climate change may continue to have a significant effect on wildfire activity. The Northeastern United States (NEUS) has seen some of the most infamous and largest historic fires in North America, such as the Miramichi Fire of 1825 and the fires of 1947. Although return intervals for large fires in the NEUS are long (hundreds of years), wildfires have played a critical role in ecosystem development and forest structure in the region. Understanding and predicting fire occurrence and vulnerability in the NEUS, especially in a changing climate, is economically and culturally important yet remains difficult due to human impacts (i.e. fire suppression activities and human disturbance). Thus, an alternative method for investigating fire risk in the NEUS is needed. Here, we present a compilation of meteorological data collected from Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) from the NEUS throughout the 20th century through present day. We use these data to compute fifteen common "fire danger indices" employed in the USA and Canada to investigate changes in the region's fire risk over time, as well as the skill of each of these indices at predicting wildfire activity relative to the historical record of fires in the NEUS. We use dynamically-downscaled regional climate model output for the 21st century to project future wildfire activity based on the fire danger indices capable of capturing historical fire activity in the NEUS. These projections will aid in predicting how fire risk in the NEUS will evolve with anticipated climate change.

Israel wildfires: future trends, impacts and mitigation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wittenberg, Lea

2017-04-01

Forest fires in the Euro-Mediterranean region burn about 450,000 ha each year. In Israel, the frequency and extent of wildfires have been steadily increasing over the past decades, culminating in several large and costly fires in 2010, 2012 and 2016. The extensive development of forest areas since the 1950's and the accumulation of fuel in the forests, has led to increased occurrences of high intensity fires. Land-use changes and human population growth are the most prevailing and common determinant of wildfire occurrence and impacts. Climate extremes, possibly already a sign of regional climate change, are another frequent determinant of increasing wildfire risk. Therefore, the combination of extreme dry spells, high fuel loads and increased anthropogenic pressure on the open spaces result in an overall amplified wildfire risk. These fires not only cause loss of life and damage to properties but also carry serious environmental repercussions. Combustion of standing vegetation and the leaf litter leave the soil bare and vulnerable to runoff and erosion, thereby increasing risks of flooding. Today, all of Israel's open spaces, forests, natural parks, major metropolitan centers, towns and villages are embedded within the wildland urban interface (WUI). Typically, wildfires near or in the WUI occur on uplands and runoff generated from the burned area poses flooding risks in urban and agricultural zones located downstream. Post-fire management aims at reducing associated hazards as collapsing trees and erosion risk. Often the time interval between a major fire and the definition of priority sites is in the order of days-to-weeks since administrative procedures, financial estimates and implementation of post-fire salvage logging operations require time. Defining the magnitude of the burn scar and estimating its potential impact on runoff and erosion must therefore be done quickly. A post-fire burn severity, runoff and erosion model is a useful tool in estimating potential risks and management strategic. Moreover, national agencies and local authorities must decide on a range of post-fire measures to mitigate risks quickly since most large fires occur late in summer shortly before the winter season. Possible climate changes, socio-economic trends, and intense land use pressures are contributing factors in a national challenge to deal with forest fires along the WUI. However, in order to support integrated fire preparedness, response, management and recovery at the national, regional and local scales, stronger research and planning effort are required. This includes long-term monitoring programs and a systematic, standardized data acquisition scheme, compiling fire history, landscape-fire spread, mitigation and assessment of the immediate fire effects, land use changes and weather data. Knowledge of both short and long-term impacts of wildfire is essential for effective risk assessment, policy formulation and wildfire management.

Home fire safety beliefs and practices in homes of urban older adults.

PubMed

Coty, Mary-Beth; McCammon, Colette; Lehna, Carlee; Twyman, Stephanie; Fahey, Erin

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine factors influencing urban older adults and develop a thematic analysis of how these factors affect seniors' home fire safety (HFS) beliefs and practices. This was a focused ethnography using participant observation and semi-structured interviews. Additionally, public housing records, cognitive functioning, and general health status were assessed. Individual interviews were transcribed verbatim using a constant comparative analysis. Eight seniors participated in the study. Two main themes described older adults' HFS while aging in place: the risk associated with the living environment and the journey associated with maintaining independence. All participants experienced HFS challenges such as limited mobility and financial constraints. Participants' general health and cognitive status additionally influenced their ability to maintain HFS. The findings suggest that urban seniors may have diverse HFS environment risks compared with the general population, highlighting the need for older adult focused HFS interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Forest-fire models

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; Alan Ager

2013-01-01

For applied mathematicians forest fire models refer mainly to a non-linear dynamic system often used to simulate spread of fire. For forest managers forest fire models may pertain to any of the three phases of fire management: prefire planning (fire risk models), fire suppression (fire behavior models), and postfire evaluation (fire effects and economic models). In...

Rodents balancing a variety of risks: invasive fire ants and indirect and direct indicators of predation risk.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orrock, John, L.; Danielson, Brent, J.

2004-06-08

Oecologia (2004) 140: 662 - 667 We used foraging trays to compare how old field mice, Peromyscus polionotus, altered foraging in response to the presence of fire ants, Solenopsisinvicta, and in the presence of direct (predator urine) and indirect (sheltered or exposed micro habitat, moonlight, and precipitation) indicators of predation risk. Foraging reductions elicited by S. invicta were greater than reductions in response to well-documented indicators of risk (i.e., moonlit nights) and the presence of predator urine. The presence of S. invicta always led to reduced foraging, but the overall impact of S. invicta was dependent upon microhabitat and precipitation.more » When S. invicta was not present, foraging was greater in sheltered microhabitats compared to exposed microhabitats. S. invicta made sheltered microhabitats equivalent to more risky exposed microhabitats, and this effect was especially pronounced on nights without precipitation. The effect of S. invicta suggests that interactions with S. invicta may entail a potentially heavy cost or that presence of S. invicta may represent a more reliable indicator of imminent competition or predation compared to indirect cues of risk and predator urine. The presence of S. invicta led to reduced foraging under situations when foraging activity would otherwise be greatest (i.e., under vegetative cover), potentially reducing habitat quality for P. polionotus and the distribution of seeds consumed by rodents.« less

Structural fire risk of Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parente, Joana; Pereira, Mário

2017-04-01

Portugal is on the top of the European countries most affected by vegetation fires which underlines the importance of the existence of an updated and coherent fire risk map. This map represent a valuable supporting tool for forest and fire management decisions, focus prevention activities, improve the efficiency of fire detection systems, manage resources and actions of fire fighting with greater effectiveness. Therefore this study proposed a structural fire risk map of the vegetated area of Portugal using a deterministic approach based on the concept of fire risk currently accepted by the scientific community which consists in the combination of the fire hazard and the potential economic damage. The existing fire susceptibility map for Portugal based on the slope, land cover and fire probability, was adopted and updated by the use of a higher resolution digital terrain model, longer burnt area perimeter dataset (1975 - 2013) and the entire set of Corine land cover inventories. Five susceptibility classes were mapped to be in accordance with the Portuguese law and the results confirms the good performance of this model not only in terms of the favourability scores but also in the predictive values. Considering three different scenarios of (maximum, mean, and minimum annual) burnt area, fire hazard were estimate. The vulnerability scores and monetary values of species defined in the literature and by law were used to calculate the potential economic damage. The result was a fire risk map that identifies the areas more prone to be affected by fires in the future and provides an estimate of the economic damage of the fire which will be a valuable tool for forest and fire managers and to minimize the economic and environmental consequences of vegetation fires in Portugal. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by: (i) the project Interact - Integrative Research in Environment,Agro-Chain and Technology, NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000017, research line BEST, cofinanced by FEDER/NORTE 2020; (ii) the FIREXTR project, PTDC/ATP¬GEO/0462/2014; and, (iii) European Investment Funds by FEDER/COMPETE/POCI-Operacional Competitiveness and Internacionalization Programme, under Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958 and National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UID/AGR/04033. We are especially grateful to ICNF and ISA for providing the fire data.

Forest landowner decisions and the value of information under fire risk.

Treesearch

Gregory S. Amacher; Arun S. Malik; Robert G. Haight

2005-01-01

We estimate the value of three types of information about fire risk to a nonindustrial forest landowner: the relationship between fire arrival rates and stand age, the magnitude of fire arrival rates, and the efficacy of fuel reduction treatment. Our model incorporates planting density and the level and timing of fuel reduction treatment as landowner decisions. These...

A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Charles W. McHugh; Isaac C. Grenfell; Karin L. Riley; Karen C. Short

2011-01-01

This simulation research was conducted in order to develop a large-fire risk assessment system for the contiguous land area of the United States. The modeling system was applied to each of 134 Fire Planning Units (FPUs) to estimate burn probabilities and fire size distributions. To obtain stable estimates of these quantities, fire ignition and growth was simulated for...

A heuristic expert system for forest fire guidance in Greece.

PubMed

Iliadis, Lazaros S; Papastavrou, Anastasios K; Lefakis, Panagiotis D

2002-07-01

Forests and forestlands are common inheritance for all Greeks and a piece of the national wealth that must be handed over to the next generations in the best possible condition. After 1974, Greece faces a severe forest fire problem and forest fire forecasting is the process that will enable the Greek ministry of Agriculture to reduce the destruction. This paper describes the basic design principles of an Expert System that performs forest fire forecasting (for the following fire season) and classification of the prefectures of Greece into forest fire risk zones. The Expert system handles uncertainty and uses heuristics in order to produce scenarios based on the presence or absence of various qualitative factors. The initial research focused on the construction of a mathematical model which attempted to describe the annual number of forest fires and burnt area in Greece based on historical data. However this has proven to be impossible using regression analysis and time series. A closer analysis of the fire data revealed that two qualitative factors dramatically affect the number of forest fires and the hectares of burnt areas annually. The first is political stability and national elections and the other is drought cycles. Heuristics were constructed that use political stability and drought cycles, to provide forest fire guidance. Fuzzy logic was applied to produce a fuzzy expected interval for each prefecture of Greece. A fuzzy expected interval is a narrow interval of values that best describes the situation in the country or a part of the country for a certain time period. A successful classification of the prefectures of Greece in forest fire risk zones was done by the system, by comparing the fuzzy expected intervals to each other. The system was tested for the years 1994 and 1995. The testing has clearly shown that the system can predict accurately, the number of forest fires for each prefecture for the following year. The average accuracy was as high as 85.25% for 1995 and 80.89% for 1994. This makes the Expert System a very important tool for forest fire prevention planning.

Quantifying and predicting fuels and the effects of reduction treatments along successional and invasion gradients in sagebrush habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shinneman, Douglas; Pilliod, David S.; Arkle, Robert; Glenn, Nancy F.

2015-01-01

Sagebrush shrubland ecosystems in the Great Basin are prime examples of how altered successional trajectories can create dynamic fuel conditions and, thus, increase uncertainty about fire risk and behavior. Although fire is a natural disturbance in sagebrush, post-fire environments are highly susceptible to conversion to an invasive grass-fire regime (often referred to as a “grass-fire cycle”). After fire, native shrub-steppe plants are often slow to regenerate, whereas nonnative annuals, especially cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae), can establish quickly and outcompete native species. Once fire-prone annuals become established, fire occurrences increase, further promoting dominance of nonnative species. The invasive grass-fire regime also alters nutrient and hydrologic cycles, pushing ecosystems beyond ecological thresholds toward steady-state, fire-prone, nonnative communities. These changes affect millions of hectares in the Great Basin and increase fire risk, decrease habitat quality and biodiversity, accelerate soil erosion, and degrade rangeland resources for livestock production. In many sagebrush landscapes, constantly changing plant communities and fuel conditions hinder attempts by land managers to predict and control fire behavior, restore native communities, and provide ecosystem services (e.g., forage production for livestock). We investigated successional and nonnative plant invasion states and associated fuel loads in degraded sagebrush habitat in a focal study area, the Morley Nelson Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (hereafter the NCA), in the Snake River Plain Ecoregion of southern Idaho. We expanded our inference by comparing our findings to similar data collected throughout seven major land resource areas (MLRAs) across the Great Basin (JFSP Project “Fire Rehabilitation Effectiveness: A Chronosequence Approach for the Great Basin” [09-S-02-1]). 4 We used a combination of field-sampling, experimental treatments, and remotely sensed data to address the following questions: (1) How do fuel loads change along gradients of succession and invasion in sagebrush ecological sites? (2) How do fuel reduction treatments influence fuels in invaded areas formerly dominated by sagebrush? (3) How do fuel loads vary across landscapes and which remote sensing techniques are effective for characterizing them?

Wildfire Danger Potential in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Myoung, B.; Kim, S. H.; Fujioka, F. M.; Kim, J.

2015-12-01

Wildfires are an important concern in California (CA) which is characterized by the semi-arid to arid climate and vegetation types. Highly variable winter precipitation and extended hot and dry warm season in the region challenge an effective strategic fire management. Climatologically, the fire season which is based on live fuel moisture (LFM) of generally below 80% in Los Angeles County spans 4 months from mid-July to mid-November, but it has lasted over 7 months in the past several years. This behavior is primarily due to the ongoing drought in CA during the last decade, which is responsible for frequent outbreaks of severe wildfires in the region. Despite their importance, scientific advances for the recent changes in wildfire risk and effective assessments of wildfire risk are lacking. In the present study, we show impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulations on an early start and then extended length of fire seasons. For example, the strong relationships of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with springtime temperature and precipitation in the SWUS that was recently revealed by our team members have led to an examination of the possible impact of NAO on wildfire danger in the spring. Our results show that the abnormally warm and dry spring conditions associated with positive NAO phases can cause an early start of a fire season and high fire risks throughout the summer and fall. For an effective fire danger assessment, we have tested the capability of satellite vegetation indices (VIs) in replicating in situ LFM of Southern CA chaparral ecosystems by 1) comparing seasonal/interannual characteristics of in-situ LFM with VIs and 2) developing an empirical model function of LFM. Unlike previous studies attempting a point-to-point comparison, we attempt to examine the LFM relationship with VIs averaged over different areal coverage with chamise-dominant grids (i.e., 0.5 km to 25 km radius circles). Lastly, we discuss implications of the results for fire danger assessment and prediction.

Climate change effects on wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and Great Lakes states predicted by a downscaled multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, Gaige Hunter; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Stoof, Cathelijne R.; Ward, Daniel

2018-01-01

This study is among the first to investigate wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and the Great Lakes states under a changing climate. We use a multi-model ensemble (MME) of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) together with the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) to understand changes in wildland fire risk through differences between historical simulations and future projections. Our results are relatively homogeneous across the focus region and indicate modest increases in the magnitude of fire weather indices (FWIs) during northern hemisphere summer. The most pronounced changes occur in the date of the initialization of CFFWIS and peak of the wildland fire season, which in the future are trending earlier in the year, and in the significant increases in the length of high-risk episodes, defined by the number of consecutive days with FWIs above the current 95th percentile. Further analyses show that these changes are most closely linked to expected changes in the focus region's temperature and precipitation. These findings relate to the current understanding of particulate matter vis-à-vis wildfires and have implications for human health and local and regional changes in radiative forcings. When considering current fire management strategies which could be challenged by increasing wildland fire risk, fire management agencies could adapt new strategies to improve awareness, prevention, and resilience to mitigate potential impacts to critical infrastructure and population.

Using GRACE-Derived Water and Moisture Products as a Predictive Tool for Fire Response in the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousseau, N. J.; Jensen, D.; Zajic, B.; Rodell, M.; Reager, J. T., II

2015-12-01

Understanding the relationship between wildfire activity and soil moisture in the United States has been difficult to assess, with limited ability to determine areas that are at high risk. This limitation is largely due to complex environmental factors at play, especially as they relate to alternating periods of wet and dry conditions, and the lack of remotely-sensed products. Recent drought conditions and accompanying low Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) have led to disastrous wildfire outbreaks causing economic loss, property damage, and environmental degradation. Thus, developing a programmed toolset to assess the relationship between soil moisture, which contributes greatly to FMC and fire severity, can establish the framework for determining overall wildfire risk. To properly evaluate these parameters, we used data assimilated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and data from the Fire Program Analysis fire-occurrence database (FPA FOD) to determine the extent soil moisture affects fire activity. Through these datasets, we produced correlation and regression maps at a coarse resolution of 0.25 degrees for the contiguous United States. These fire-risk products and toolsets proved the viability of this methodology, allowing for the future incorporation of more GRACE-derived water parameters, MODIS vegetation indices, and other environmental datasets to refine the model for fire risk. Additionally, they will allow assessment to national-scale early fire management and provide responders with a predictive tool to better employ early decision-support to areas of high risk during regions' respective fire season(s).

16 CFR § 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. § 1145.3 Section § 1145.3 Commercial...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

Risk Based Reliability Centered Maintenance of DOD Fire Protection Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-01-01

2.2.3 Failure Mode and Effect Analysis ( FMEA )............................ 2.2.4 Failure Mode Risk Characterization...Step 2 - System functions and functional failures definition Step 3 - Failure mode and effect analysis ( FMEA ) Step 4 - Failure mode risk...system). The Interface Location column identifies the location where the FMEA of the fire protection system began or stopped. For example, for the fire

Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

PubMed

Johansson, Henrik

2002-07-01

Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

Predicting fire effects on water quality: a perspective and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Hugh; Sheridan, Gary; Nyman, Petter; Langhans, Christoph; Noske, Philip; Lane, Patrick

2017-04-01

Forest environments are a globally significant source of drinking water. Fire presents a credible threat to the supply of high quality water in many forested regions. The post-fire risk to water supplies depends on storm event characteristics, vegetation cover and fire-related changes in soil infiltration and erodibility modulated by landscape position. The resulting magnitude of runoff generation, erosion and constituent flux to streams and reservoirs determines the severity of water quality impacts in combination with the physical and chemical composition of the entrained material. Research to date suggests that most post-fire water quality impacts are due to large increases in the supply of particulates (fine-grained sediment and ash) and particle-associated chemical constituents. The largest water quality impacts result from high magnitude erosion events, including debris flow processes, which typically occur in response to short duration, high intensity storm events during the recovery period. Most research to date focuses on impacts on water quality after fire. However, information on potential water quality impacts is required prior to fire events for risk planning. Moreover, changes in climate and forest management (e.g. prescribed burning) that affect fire regimes may alter water quality risks. Therefore, prediction requires spatial-temporal representation of fire and rainfall regimes coupled with information on fire-related changes to soil hydrologic parameters. Recent work has applied such an approach by combining a fire spread model with historic fire weather data in a Monte Carlo simulation to quantify probabilities associated with fire and storm events generating debris flows and fine sediment influx to a reservoir located in Victoria, Australia. Prediction of fire effects on water quality would benefit from further research in several areas. First, more work on regional-scale stochastic modelling of intersecting fire and storm events with landscape zones of erosion vulnerability is required to support quantitative evaluation of water quality risk and the effect of future changes in climate and land management. Second, we underscore previous calls for characterisation of landscape-scale domains to support regionalisation of parameter sets derived from empirical studies. Recent examples include work identifying aridity as a control of hydro-geomorphic response to fire and the use of spectral-based indices to predict spatial heterogeneity in ash loadings. Third, information on post-fire erosion from colluvial or alluvial stores is needed to determine their significance as both sediment-contaminant sinks and sources. Such sediment stores may require explicit spatial representation in risk models for some environments and sediment tracing can be used to determine their relative importance as secondary sources. Fourth, increased dating of sediment archives could provide regional datasets of fire-related erosion event frequency. Presently, the lack of such data hinders evaluation of risk models linking fire and storm events to erosion and water quality impacts.

Explosion and/or fire risk assessment methodology: a common approach, structured for underground coalmine environments / Metoda szacowania ryzyka wybuchu i pożarów: podejście ogólne, dostosowane do środowiska kopalni podziemnej

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cioca, Ionel-Lucian; Moraru, Roland Iosif

2012-10-01

In order to meet statutory requirements concerning the workers health and safety, it is necessary for mine managers within Valea Jiului coal basin in Romania to address the potential for underground fires and explosions and their impact on the workforce and the mine ventilation systems. Highlighting the need for a unified and systematic approach of the specific risks, the authors are developing a general framework for fire/explosion risk assessment in gassy mines, based on the quantification of the likelihood of occurrence and gravity of the consequences of such undesired events and employing Root-Cause analysis method. It is emphasized that even a small fire should be regarded as being a major hazard from the point of view of explosion initiation, should a combustible atmosphere arise. The developed methodology, for the assessment of underground fire and explosion risks, is based on the known underground explosion hazards, fire engineering principles and fire test criteria for potentially combustible materials employed in mines.

Improved Methods for Fire Risk Assessment in Low-Income and Informal Settlements.

PubMed

Twigg, John; Christie, Nicola; Haworth, James; Osuteye, Emmanuel; Skarlatidou, Artemis

2017-02-01

Fires cause over 300,000 deaths annually worldwide and leave millions more with permanent injuries: some 95% of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Burn injury risk is strongly associated with low-income and informal (or slum) settlements, which are growing rapidly in an urbanising world. Fire policy and mitigation strategies in poorer countries are constrained by inadequate data on incidence, impacts, and causes, which is mainly due to a lack of capacity and resources for data collection, analysis, and modelling. As a first step towards overcoming such challenges, this project reviewed the literature on the subject to assess the potential of a range of methods and tools for identifying, assessing, and addressing fire risk in low-income and informal settlements; the process was supported by an expert workshop at University College London in May 2016. We suggest that community-based risk and vulnerability assessment methods, which are widely used in disaster risk reduction, could be adapted to urban fire risk assessment, and could be enhanced by advances in crowdsourcing and citizen science for geospatial data creation and collection. To assist urban planners, emergency managers, and community organisations who are working in resource-constrained settings to identify and assess relevant fire risk factors, we also suggest an improved analytical framework based on the Haddon Matrix.

History of Fire Events in the U.S. Commercial Nuclear Industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bijan Najafi; Joglar-Biloch, Francisco; Kassawara, Robert P.

2002-07-01

Over the past decade, interest in performance-based fire protection has increased within the nuclear industry. In support of this growing interest, in 1997 the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed a long-range plan to develop/improve data and tools needed to support Risk-Informed/Performance-Based fire protection. This plan calls for continued improvement in collection and use of information obtained from fire events at nuclear plants. The data collection process has the objectives of improving the insights gained from such data and reducing the uncertainty in fire risk and fire modeling methods in order to make them a more reliable basis for performancemore » based fire protection programs. In keeping with these objectives, EPRI continues to collect, review and analyze fire events in support of the nuclear industry. EPRI collects these records in cooperation with the Nuclear Electric Insurance Limited (NEIL), by compiling public fire event reports and by direct solicitation of U.S. nuclear facilities. EPRI fire data collection project is based on the principle that the understanding of history is one of the cornerstones of improving fire protection technology and practice. Therefore, the goal has been to develop and maintain a comprehensive database of fire events with flexibility to support various aspects of fire protection engineering. With more than 1850 fire records over a period of three decades and 2400 reactor years, this is the most comprehensive database of nuclear power industry fire events in existence today. In general, the frequency of fires in the U.S. commercial nuclear industry remains constant. In few cases, e.g., transient fires and fires in BWR offgas/recombiner systems, where either increasing or decreasing trends are observed, these trends tend to slow after 1980. The key issues in improving quality of the data remain to be consistency of the recording and reporting of fire events and difficulties in collection of records. EPRI has made significant progress towards improving the quality of the fire events data through use of multiple collection methods as well as its review and verification. To date EPRI has used this data to develop a generic fire ignition frequency model for U.S. nuclear power industry (Ref. 1, 4 and 5) as well as to support other models in support of EPRI Fire Risk Methods such as a cable fire manual suppression model. EPRI will continue its effort to collect and analyze operating data to support risk informed/performance based fire safety engineering, including collection and analysis of impairment data for fire protection systems and features. This paper provides details on the collection and application of fire events to risk informed/performance based fire protection. The paper also provides valuable insights into improving both collection and use of fire events data. (authors)« less

Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture to Estimate Fire Risk in Tropical Peatlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dadap, N.; Cobb, A.; Hoyt, A.; Harvey, C. F.; Konings, A. G.

2017-12-01

Tropical peatlands in Equatorial Asia have become more vulnerable to fire due to deforestation and peatland drainage over the last 30 years. In these regions, water table depth has been shown to play an important role in mediating fire risk as it serves as a proxy for peat moisture content. However, water table depth observations are sparse and expensive. Soil moisture could provide a more direct indicator of fire risk than water table depth. In this study, we use new soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite to demonstrate that - contrary to popular wisdom - remotely sensed soil moisture observations are possible over most Southeast Asian peatlands. Soil moisture estimation in this region was previously thought to be impossible over tropical peatlands because of dense vegetation cover. We show that vegetation density is sufficiently low across most Equatorial Asian peatlands to allow soil moisture estimation, and hypothesize that deforestation and other anthropogenic changes in land cover have combined to reduce overall vegetation density sufficient to allow soil moisture estimation. We further combine burned area estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database and SMAP soil moisture retrievals to show that soil moisture provides a strong signal for fire risk in peatlands, with fires occurring at a much greater rate over drier soils. We will also develop an explicit fire risk model incorporating soil moisture with additional climatic, land cover, and anthropogenic predictor variables.

Ecological Risk Assessment of Perfluooroctane Sulfonate (PFOS) to Aquatic Fauna From a Bayou Adjacent to Former Fire Training Areas at a U.S. Air Force Installation.

PubMed

Salice, Christopher J; Anderson, Todd A; Anderson, Richard H; Olson, Adric D

2018-04-25

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) continue to receive significant attention with particular concern for PFASs such as perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) which was a constituent of Aqueous Film-Forming Foam used widely as a fire suppressant for aircraft since the 1970 s. We were interested in the potential for risk to ecological receptors inhabiting Cooper Bayou which is adjacent to two former fire-training areas (FTAs) at Barksdale Air Force Base, LA. Previous research showed higher PFOS concentrations in surface water and biota from Cooper Bayou compared to reference sites. To estimate risk, we compared surface water concentrations from multiple sites within Cooper Bayou to several PFOS chronic toxicity benchmarks for freshwater aquatic organisms (∼0.4-5.1 µg PFOS/L), and showed probility of exceedances from 0.04 to 0.5 suggesting a potential for adverse effects in the most contaminated habitats. A tissue residue assessment similarly showed some exceedance of benchmarks but with with a lower probability (max = 0.17). Both FTAs have been inactive for more than a decade so exposures (and, thus, risks) are expected to decline. Several uncertainties limit confidence in our risk estimates and include, highly dynamic surface water concentrations and limited chronic toxicity data for relevant species. Also, we have little data concerning organisms higher in the food chain which may receive higher lifetime exposures given the potential for PFOS to bioaccumulate and the longevity of many of these organisms. Overall, this study suggests PFOS can occur at concentrations that may cause adverse effects to ecological receptors although additional, focused research is needed to reduce uncertainties. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Carbon Emission from Forest Fires on Scots Pine Logging Sites in the Angara Region of Central Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanova, G. A.; Conard, S. G.; McRae, D. J.; Kukavskaya, E. A.; Bogorodskaya, A. V.; Kovaleva, N. M.

2010-12-01

Wildfire and large-scale forest harvesting are the two major disturbances in the Russian boreal forests. Non-recovered logged sites total about a million hectares in Siberia. Logged sites are characterized by higher fire hazard than forest sites due to the presence of generally untreated logging slash (i.e., available fuel) which dries out much more rapidly compared to understory fuels. Moreover, most logging sites can be easily accessed by local population; this increases the risk for fire ignition. Fire impacts on the overstory trees, subcanopy woody layer, and ground vegetation biomass were estimated on 14 logged and unlogged comparison sites in the Lower Angara Region in 2009-2010 as part of the NASA-funded NEESPI project, The Influence of Changing Forestry Practices on the Effects of Wildfire and on Interactions Between Fire and Changing Climate in Central Siberia. Based on calculated fuel consumption, we estimated carbon emission from fires on both logged and unlogged burned sites. Carbon emission from fires on logged sites appeared to be twice that on unlogged sites. Soil respiration decreased on both site types after fires. This reduction may partially offset fire-produced carbon emissions. Carbon emissions from fire and post-fire ecosystem damage on logged sites are expected to increase under changing climate conditions and as a result of anticipated increases in future forest harvesting in Siberia.

EPRI/NRC-RES fire human reliability analysis guidelines.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, Stuart R.; Cooper, Susan E.; Najafi, Bijan

2010-03-01

During the 1990s, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed methods for fire risk analysis to support its utility members in the preparation of responses to Generic Letter 88-20, Supplement 4, 'Individual Plant Examination - External Events' (IPEEE). This effort produced a Fire Risk Assessment methodology for operations at power that was used by the majority of U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) in support of the IPEEE program and several NPPs overseas. Although these methods were acceptable for accomplishing the objectives of the IPEEE, EPRI and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) recognized that they required upgrades to support currentmore » requirements for risk-informed, performance-based (RI/PB) applications. In 2001, EPRI and the USNRC's Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) embarked on a cooperative project to improve the state-of-the-art in fire risk assessment to support a new risk-informed environment in fire protection. This project produced a consensus document, NUREG/CR-6850 (EPRI 1011989), entitled 'Fire PRA Methodology for Nuclear Power Facilities' which addressed fire risk for at power operations. NUREG/CR-6850 developed high level guidance on the process for identification and inclusion of human failure events (HFEs) into the fire PRA (FPRA), and a methodology for assigning quantitative screening values to these HFEs. It outlined the initial considerations of performance shaping factors (PSFs) and related fire effects that may need to be addressed in developing best-estimate human error probabilities (HEPs). However, NUREG/CR-6850 did not describe a methodology to develop best-estimate HEPs given the PSFs and the fire-related effects. In 2007, EPRI and RES embarked on another cooperative project to develop explicit guidance for estimating HEPs for human failure events under fire generated conditions, building upon existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This document provides a methodology and guidance for conducting a fire HRA. This process includes identification and definition of post-fire human failure events, qualitative analysis, quantification, recovery, dependency, and uncertainty. This document provides three approaches to quantification: screening, scoping, and detailed HRA. Screening is based on the guidance in NUREG/CR-6850, with some additional guidance for scenarios with long time windows. Scoping is a new approach to quantification developed specifically to support the iterative nature of fire PRA quantification. Scoping is intended to provide less conservative HEPs than screening, but requires fewer resources than a detailed HRA analysis. For detailed HRA quantification, guidance has been developed on how to apply existing methods to assess post-fire fire HEPs.« less

Fire Distribution in Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo in 2015 with Special Emphasis on Peatland Fires.

PubMed

Miettinen, Jukka; Shi, Chenghua; Liew, Soo Chin

2017-10-01

In this paper, we analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of vegetation fires in Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra, and Borneo in the severe El Niño year of 2015, concentrating on the distribution of fires between mineral soils and peatland areas, and between land cover types in peatland areas. The results reveal that 53% of all Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire detections were recorded in peatlands that cover only 12% of the study area. However, fire occurrence in the peatland areas was highly dependent on land cover type. Pristine peat swamp forests (PSF) experienced only marginal fire activity (30 fire detections per 1000 km 2 ) compared to deforested undeveloped peatlands (831-915 fire detections per 1000 km 2 ). Our results also highlight the extreme fire vulnerability of the southern Sumatran and Bornean peatlands under strong El Niño conditions: 71% of all peatland hotspots were detected in the provinces of South Sumatra and Central Kalimantan, which contain 29% of peatlands in the study area. Degraded PSF and all deforested peatland land cover types, including managed areas, in the two provinces were severely affected, demonstrating how difficult it is to protect even managed drained agricultural areas from unwanted fires during dry periods. Our results thereby advocate rewetting and rehabilitation as the primary management option for highly fire prone degraded undeveloped peatland areas, whenever feasible, as a means to reduce fire risk during future dry episodes.

Fire Distribution in Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo in 2015 with Special Emphasis on Peatland Fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miettinen, Jukka; Shi, Chenghua; Liew, Soo Chin

2017-10-01

In this paper, we analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of vegetation fires in Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra, and Borneo in the severe El Niño year of 2015, concentrating on the distribution of fires between mineral soils and peatland areas, and between land cover types in peatland areas. The results reveal that 53% of all Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire detections were recorded in peatlands that cover only 12% of the study area. However, fire occurrence in the peatland areas was highly dependent on land cover type. Pristine peat swamp forests (PSF) experienced only marginal fire activity (30 fire detections per 1000 km2) compared to deforested undeveloped peatlands (831-915 fire detections per 1000 km2). Our results also highlight the extreme fire vulnerability of the southern Sumatran and Bornean peatlands under strong El Niño conditions: 71% of all peatland hotspots were detected in the provinces of South Sumatra and Central Kalimantan, which contain 29% of peatlands in the study area. Degraded PSF and all deforested peatland land cover types, including managed areas, in the two provinces were severely affected, demonstrating how difficult it is to protect even managed drained agricultural areas from unwanted fires during dry periods. Our results thereby advocate rewetting and rehabilitation as the primary management option for highly fire prone degraded undeveloped peatland areas, whenever feasible, as a means to reduce fire risk during future dry episodes.

Integrating fire behavior models and geospatial analysis for wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; Mark A. Finney

2011-01-01

Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals...

Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy: A vision for an innovative and integrated approach to managing the risks

Treesearch

Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy Project Management Team

2006-01-01

The Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy (CWFS) provides a vision for a new, innovative, and integrated approach to wildland fire management in Canada. It was developed under the auspices of the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers and seeks to balance the social, ecological, and economic aspects of wildland fire through a risk management framework that emphasizes hazard...

PREFER: a European service providing forest fire management support products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eftychidis, George; Laneve, Giovanni; Ferrucci, Fabrizio; Sebastian Lopez, Ana; Lourenco, Louciano; Clandillon, Stephen; Tampellini, Lucia; Hirn, Barbara; Diagourtas, Dimitris; Leventakis, George

2015-06-01

PREFER is a Copernicus project of the EC-FP7 program which aims developing spatial information products that may support fire prevention and burned areas restoration decisions and establish a relevant web-based regional service for making these products available to fire management stakeholders. The service focuses to the Mediterranean region, where fire risk is high and damages from wildfires are quite important, and develop its products for pilot areas located in Spain, Portugal, Italy, France and Greece. PREFER aims to allow fire managers to have access to online resources, which shall facilitate fire prevention measures, fire hazard and risk assessment, estimation of fire impact and damages caused by wildfire as well as support monitoring of post-fire regeneration and vegetation recovery. It makes use of a variety of products delivered by space borne sensors and develop seasonal and daily products using multi-payload, multi-scale and multi-temporal analysis of EO data. The PREFER Service portfolio consists of two main suite of products. The first refers to mapping products for supporting decisions concerning the Preparedness/Prevention Phase (ISP Service). The service delivers Fuel, Hazard and Fire risk maps for this purpose. Furthermore the PREFER portfolio includes Post-fire vegetation recovery, burn scar maps, damage severity and 3D fire damage assessment products in order to support relative assessments required in context of the Recovery/Reconstruction Phase (ISR Service) of fire management.

40 CFR 266.109 - Low risk waste exemption.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... of fuel fired to the device shall be fossil fuel, fuels derived from fossil fuel, tall oil, or, if... comparable to fossil fuel. Such fuels are termed “primary fuel” for purposes of this section. (Tall oil is a...

40 CFR 266.109 - Low risk waste exemption.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... of fuel fired to the device shall be fossil fuel, fuels derived from fossil fuel, tall oil, or, if... comparable to fossil fuel. Such fuels are termed “primary fuel” for purposes of this section. (Tall oil is a...

40 CFR 266.109 - Low risk waste exemption.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... of fuel fired to the device shall be fossil fuel, fuels derived from fossil fuel, tall oil, or, if... comparable to fossil fuel. Such fuels are termed “primary fuel” for purposes of this section. (Tall oil is a...

40 CFR 266.109 - Low risk waste exemption.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... of fuel fired to the device shall be fossil fuel, fuels derived from fossil fuel, tall oil, or, if... comparable to fossil fuel. Such fuels are termed “primary fuel” for purposes of this section. (Tall oil is a...

40 CFR 266.109 - Low risk waste exemption.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... of fuel fired to the device shall be fossil fuel, fuels derived from fossil fuel, tall oil, or, if... comparable to fossil fuel. Such fuels are termed “primary fuel” for purposes of this section. (Tall oil is a...

Bulletin of Forest Fire risk in Albania- The experience of the Albania National Centre for forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berdufi, I.; Jaupaj, O.; Marku, M.; Deda, M.; Fiori, E.; D'Andrea, M.; Biondi, G.; Fioruci, P.; Massabò, M.; Zorba, P.; Gjonaj, M.

2012-04-01

In the territory of Albania usually every year around 1000 ha are affected by forest fires, from which about 500 ha are completely destroyed. The number of forest fires (nf), with the burning surface (bs) in years has been like this: during the years 1988-1998: nf / bs = 2.19, 1998-2001: nf / bs = 5.66, year 2002 -2005: nf / bs = 8.2, and during the years 2005-2006: nf / bs = 11.9, while economic losses in a year by forest fires is about 2 million of Euro. The increase in years of these figures and the last floods which happened in the last two years in Shkoder, led to an international cooperation, that between the Italian Civil Protection Department and the Albania General Directorate of Civil Emergency. The focus of this cooperation was the building capacity of the Albanian National System of Civil Protection in forecasting, monitoring and prevention forest fires and floods risks. As a result of this collaboration the "National Center for the Forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks", was set up at the Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment. The Center is the first of its kind in Albania. The mission of the Center is the prediction and monitoring of the forest fire and flood risk in the Albanian territory, as a tools for risk reduction and mitigation. The first step to achieve this strategy was the implementation of the forest fires risk forecast model "RISICO". RISICO was adapted for whole Albania territory by CIMA Research Foundation. The Center, in the summer season, issues a daily bulletin. The bulletin reports the potential risk scenarios related with the ignition and propagation of fires in Albania. The bulletin is broadcasted through email or fax within 12.00 AM of each working day. It highlights where and when severe risk conditions may occur within the next 48 hours

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Massada, Avi Bar; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hawbaker, Todd J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland–urban interface (WUI) increases wildfirerisk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfirerisk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwesternWisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfirerisk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfirerisk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfirerisk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions.

The "Let's Get Alarmed!" initiative: a smoke alarm giveaway programme.

PubMed

DiGuiseppi, C; Slater, S; Roberts, I; Adams, L; Sculpher, M; Wade, A; McCarthy, M

1999-09-01

To reduce fires and fire related injuries by increasing the prevalence of functioning smoke alarms in high risk households. The programme was delivered in an inner London area with above average material deprivation and below average smoke alarm ownership. The target population included low income and rental households and households with elderly persons or young children. Forty wards, averaging 4000 households each, were randomised to intervention or control status. Free smoke alarms and fire safety information were distributed in intervention wards by community groups and workers as part of routine activities and by paid workers who visited target neighbourhoods. Recipients provided data on household age distribution and housing tenure. Programme costs were documented from a societal perspective. Data are being collected on smoke alarm ownership and function, and on fires and related injuries and their costs. Community and paid workers distributed 20,050 smoke alarms, potentially sufficient to increase smoke alarm ownership by 50% in intervention wards. Compared with the total study population, recipients included greater proportions of low income and rental households and households including children under 5 years or adults aged 65 and older. Total programme costs were 145,087 Pounds. It is possible to implement a large scale smoke alarm giveaway programme targeted to high risk households in a densely populated, multicultural, materially deprived community. The programme's effects on the prevalence of installed and functioning alarms and the incidence of fires and fire related injuries, and its cost effectiveness, are being evaluated as a randomized controlled trial.

Water contamination risks associated with a combination of planned and unplanned fire in south eastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, G. J.; Nyman, P.; Langhans, C.; Noske, P. J.; Lane, P. N. J.

2014-12-01

Planned burning reduces fuel loads in forests, potentially reducing the severity of subsequent wildfires. However planned burning also increases the risk of a significant water quality impact by maintaining a proportion of the catchment in a burnt condition conducive to generating high magnitude erosion events (eg. debris flows). Differences in the frequency and magnitude of planned and unplanned fire, combined with poorly understood relationships between fire severity and hydrologic impacts, means that predictions of the net water contamination risks associated with any particular fire regime are difficult to predict. This presentation synthesises results from 10 years of point, plot and catchment-scale post-fire hydrology and erosion studies in SE Australia to estimate the likely benifits and risks of planned burning scenarios from a drinking water supply perspective

Fire monitoring from space: from research to operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pergola, Nicola; Filizzola, Carolina; Corrado, Rosita; Coviello, Irina; lacava, Teodosio; Marchese, Francesco; Mazzeo, Giuseppe; Paciello, Rossana; Tramutoli, Valerio

2013-04-01

Each summer fires rage through European forests, burning hundreds of thousands of hectares per year, as a result of the many (up to 60000) forest fires that usually occur annually in Europe. Fires can threaten public health and safety, destroy property and cause economic damages. Despite of their medium extension (the average burnt area is less than 6 ha), much smaller if compared with other regions like the USA and Canada, the number of simultaneous active fires in Europe can be very high, fomented by weather conditions that, especially in summer times and for countries of South Europe, are particularly favourable to a rapid and dramatic development of flames. Fires still are not only a social problem, but also an environmental emergency, producing a continuous impoverishment of forests and possibly indirectly triggering other natural hazards (e.g. making slopes, without the trees action, more prone to landslides). Additionally, there is a general concern about the loss of biodiversity and the contribution to land degradation that fires may cause. Earth Observation satellite systems have been largely tested for fire detection and monitoring from space. Their spectral capability, synoptic view and revisit times can offer an added value in the operational use not only in real time, during fires fighting activities, but also in near-real or delay time during the phases of risk management and mitigation. However, the practice of an actual operational use of satellite products by end-users is still not usual at European level. This work is based on the experience carried out jointly by CNR-IMAA and the National Civil Protection Department (DPC), in the framework of a five-year agreement in which the operational use of an Earth observation satellite system for fires spotting and monitoring is tested. Satellite-based products, developed not only for detecting fires but also for continuously monitoring their evolution in time domain, have been provided to Civil Protection Department for the whole summer campaign on forest fires fighting, supporting their activities in routinely managing and monitoring forest fires risk. The experimented satellite system has demonstrated to provide valuable information that can be used by civil protection staff also in support to organization and allocation of fire fighting resources on ground, especially when, during the high risk periods, there are or are expected a large number of contemporary events. Training activities, devoted to make DPC staff fully able to self operate the provided satellite-based tool, were also carried out during this collaborative experience, which represents a best practice of a useful integration of satellite added value products within the operational framework of an expert user.

Can Fire and Rescue Services and the National Health Service work together to improve the safety and wellbeing of vulnerable older people? Design of a proof of concept study.

PubMed

Lowton, Karen; Laybourne, Anne H; Whiting, David G; Martin, Finbarr C

2010-12-03

Older adults are at increased risk both of falling and of experiencing accidental domestic fire. In addition to advanced age, these adverse events share the risk factors of balance or mobility problems, cognitive impairment and socioeconomic deprivation. For both events, the consequences include significant injury and death, and considerable socioeconomic costs for the individual and informal carers, as well as for emergency services, health and social care agencies.Secondary prevention services for older people who have fallen or who are identifiable as being at high risk of falling include NHS Falls clinics, where a multidisciplinary team offers an individualised multifactorial targeted intervention including strength and balance exercise programmes, medication changes and home hazard modification. A similar preventative approach is employed by most Fire and Rescue Services who conduct Home Fire Safety Visits to assess and, if necessary, remedy domestic fire risk, fit free smoke alarms with instruction for use and maintenance, and plan an escape route. We propose that the similarity of population at risk, location, specific risk factors and the commonality of preventative approaches employed could offer net gains in terms of feasibility, effectiveness and acceptability if activities within these two preventative approaches were to be combined. This prospective proof of concept study, currently being conducted in two London boroughs, (Southwark and Lambeth) aims to reduce the incidence of both fires and falls in community-dwelling older adults. It comprises two concurrent 12-month interventions: the integration of 1) fall risk assessments into the Brigade's Home Fire Safety Visit and 2) fire risk assessments into Falls services by inviting older clinic attendees to book a Visit. Our primary objective is to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of these interventions. Furthermore, we are evaluating their acceptability and value to key stakeholders and services users. If our approach proves feasible and the risk assessment is both effective and acceptable, we envisage advocating a partnership model of working more broadly to fire and rescue services and health services in Britain, such that effective integration of preventative services for older people becomes routine for an ageing population.

Prescribed burning in ponderosa pine: fuel reductions and redistributing fuels near boles to prevent injury

Treesearch

Robert A. Progar; Kathryn H. Hrinkevich; Edward S. Clark; Matthew J. Rinella

2017-01-01

Fire suppression and other factors have resulted in high wildfire risk in the western US, and prescribed burning can be an effective tool for thinning forests and reducing fuels to lessen wildfire risks. However, prescribed burning sometimes fails to substantially reduce fuels and sometimes damages and kills valuable, large trees. This study compared fuel reductions...

Assessing the Potential Impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño on the California Rim Fire Burn Scar Through Debris Flow Hazard Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larcom, S.; Grigsby, S.; Ustin, S.

2015-12-01

Wildfires are a perennial issue for California, and the current record-breaking drought is exacerbating the potential problems for the state. Fires leave behind burn scars characterized by diminished vegetative cover and abundant bare soil, and these areas are especially susceptible to storm events that pose an elevated risk of debris flows and sediment-rich sheet wash. This study focused on the 2013 Rim Fire that devastated significant portions of Stanislaus National Forest and Yosemite National Park, and utilized readily available NASA JPL SRTM elevation data and AVIRIS spectral imaging data to construct a debris flow hazard map that assesses mass wasting risk for the Rim Fire burn scar. This study consisted entirely of remotely sensed data, which was processed in software programs such as ENVI, GRASS GIS, ArcMap, and Google Earth. Parameters that were taken into consideration when constructing this map include hill slope (greater than 30 percent rise), burn severity (assessed by calculating NDVI), and erodibility of the soil (by comparing spectral reflectance of AVIRIS images with the reference spectra of illite). By calculating percent of total burn area, 6% was classified as low risk, 55% as medium risk, and 39% as high risk. In addition, this study assessed the importance of the 2015-2016 El Niño, which is projected to be one of the strongest on record, by studying historic rainfall records and storm events of past El Niño's. Hydrological and infrastructural problems that could be caused by short-term convective or long-term synoptic storms and subsequent debris flows were explored as well.

Effects of Climate and Fuels Management on Wildfire Occurrence, Size, Severity and Emissions in the Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerling, A. L.; Fites, J. A.; Keyser, A.

2015-12-01

Annual wildfire burned area in federally managed Sierra Nevada forests has increased by more than 10,000 ha per decade since the early 1970s. At the same time, recent years have seen some extremely large fires compared to the historical record, with significant areas of moderate to high severity fire (e.g., McNally 2002, Rim 2013, King 2014 fires). Changes to fuels and fire regimes due to fire suppression and land use, as well as warming temperatures and the occurrence of drought, are thought to be significant factors contributing to increased risks of large, severe fires in Sierra Nevada forests. Over 70% of the vegetated area in federally managed forests in the Sierra Nevada is classified as having altered fuels and fire regimes, while average annual temperature in the Sierra Nevada has been above the long term mean for all but four years in the past two decades. As climate is expected to continue warming for decades to come, we explored fuels management scenarios as the primary tools available to modify risks of large, severe wildfires. We developed experimental statistical models of fire occurrence, fire size, and high severity burned area, to explore the interaction between climate and altered fuels conditions. These models were applied to historical climate conditions, a sample of future climate projections, and to both current fuels conditions and a range of scenarios for fuels treatments. Emissions from wildfires were estimated using the Fire Inventory from the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Our models project that average annual burned area in the Sierra Nevada will more than double by mid-century. Similarly, particulate and other pollution emissions from Sierra Nevada wildfires are projected to more than double, even if future fire severity does not change. Fuels treatment scenarios significantly reduced simulated future burned area and emissions below untreated projections. High severity burned area responded to both climate and fuels treatments. A sensitivity analysis indicated that in areas where the fraction of highly altered fuels is high, successfully restoring fuels to prehistoric conditions could more than compensate for expected climate change effects on fire severity by mid-century.

Probabilistic discrimination between liquid rainfall events, hailstorms, biomass burning and industrial fires from C-Band Radar Polarimetric Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valencia, J. M.; Sepúlveda, J.; Hoyos, C.; Herrera, L.

2017-12-01

Characterization and identification of fire and hailstorm events using weather radar data in a tropical complex topography region is an important task in risk management and agriculture. Polarimetric variables from a C-Band Dual polarization weather radar have potential uses in particle classification, due to the relationship their sensitivity to shape, spatial orientation, size and fall behavior of particles. In this sense, three forest fires and two chemical fires were identified for the Áburra Valley regions. Measurements were compared between each fire event type and with typical data radar retrievals for liquid precipitation events. Results of this analysis show different probability density functions for each type of event according to the particles present in them. This is very important and useful result for early warning systems to avoid precipitation false alarms during fire events within the study region, as well as for the early detection of fires using radar retrievals in remote cases. The comparative methodology is extended to hailstorm cases. Complementary sensors like laser precipitation sensors (LPM) disdrometers and meteorological stations were used to select dates of solid precipitation occurrence. Then, in this dates weather radar data variables were taken in pixels surrounding the stations and solid precipitation polar values were statistically compared with liquid precipitation values. Spectrum precipitation measured by LPM disdrometer helps to define typical features like particles number, fall velocities and diameters for both precipitation types. In addition, to achieve a complete hailstorm characterization, other meteorological variables were analyzed: wind field from meteorological stations and radar wind profiler, profiling data from Micro Rain Radar (MRR), and thermodynamic data from a microwave radiometer.

Setting priorities for private land conservation in fire-prone landscapes: Are fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation competing or compatible objectives?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Butsic, Van; Bar-Massada, Avi; Keeley, Jon E.; Tracey, Jeff A.; Fisher, Robert N.

2016-01-01

Although wildfire plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity in many ecosystems, fire management to protect human assets is often carried out by different agencies than those tasked for conserving biodiversity. In fact, fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation are often viewed as competing objectives. Here we explored the role of management through private land conservation and asked whether we could identify private land acquisition strategies that fulfill the mutual objectives of biodiversity conservation and fire risk reduction, or whether the maximization of one objective comes at a detriment to the other. Using a fixed budget and number of homes slated for development, we simulated 20 years of housing growth under alternative conservation selection strategies, and then projected the mean risk of fires destroying structures and the area and configuration of important habitat types in San Diego County, California, USA. We found clear differences in both fire risk projections and biodiversity impacts based on the way conservation lands are prioritized for selection, but these differences were split between two distinct groupings. If no conservation lands were purchased, or if purchases were prioritized based on cost or likelihood of development, both the projected fire risk and biodiversity impacts were much higher than if conservation lands were purchased in areas with high fire hazard or high species richness. Thus, conserving land focused on either of the two objectives resulted in nearly equivalent mutual benefits for both. These benefits not only resulted from preventing development in sensitive areas, but they were also due to the different housing patterns and arrangements that occurred as development was displaced from those areas. Although biodiversity conflicts may still arise using other fire management strategies, this study shows that mutual objectives can be attained through land-use planning in this region. These results likely generalize to any place where high species richness overlaps with hazardous wildland vegetation.

Wildland fire risk and social vulnerability in the Southeastern United States: An exploratory spatial data analysis approach

Treesearch

Cassandra Johnson Gaither; N.C. Poudyal; S. Goodrick; J.M. Bowker; S. Malone; J. Gan

2011-01-01

The southeastern U.S. is one of the more wildland fire prone areas of the country and also contains some of the poorest or most socially vulnerable rural communities. Our project addresses wildland fire risk in this part of the U.S and its intersection with social vulnerability. We examine spatial association between high wildland fire prone areas which also rank high...

Providing the Fire Risk Map in Forest Area Using a Geographically Weighted Regression Model with Gaussin Kernel and Modis Images, a Case Study: Golestan Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah-Heydari pour, A.; Pahlavani, P.; Bigdeli, B.

2017-09-01

According to the industrialization of cities and the apparent increase in pollutants and greenhouse gases, the importance of forests as the natural lungs of the earth is felt more than ever to clean these pollutants. Annually, a large part of the forests is destroyed due to the lack of timely action during the fire. Knowledge about areas with a high-risk of fire and equipping these areas by constructing access routes and allocating the fire-fighting equipment can help to eliminate the destruction of the forest. In this research, the fire risk of region was forecasted and the risk map of that was provided using MODIS images by applying geographically weighted regression model with Gaussian kernel and ordinary least squares over the effective parameters in forest fire including distance from residential areas, distance from the river, distance from the road, height, slope, aspect, soil type, land use, average temperature, wind speed, and rainfall. After the evaluation, it was found that the geographically weighted regression model with Gaussian kernel forecasted 93.4% of the all fire points properly, however the ordinary least squares method could forecast properly only 66% of the fire points.

Preventing deaths and injuries from house fires: a cost-benefit analysis of a community-based smoke alarm installation programme.

PubMed

Yellman, Merissa A; Peterson, Cora; McCoy, Mary A; Stephens-Stidham, Shelli; Caton, Emily; Barnard, Jeffrey J; Padgett, Ted O; Florence, Curtis; Istre, Gregory R

2018-02-01

Operation Installation (OI), a community-based smoke alarm installation programme in Dallas, Texas, targets houses in high-risk urban census tracts. Residents of houses that received OI installation (or programme houses) had 68% fewer medically treated house fire injuries (non-fatal and fatal) compared with residents of non-programme houses over an average of 5.2 years of follow-up during an effectiveness evaluation conducted from 2001 to 2011. To estimate the cost-benefit of OI. A mathematical model incorporated programme cost and effectiveness data as directly observed in OI. The estimated cost per smoke alarm installed was based on a retrospective analysis of OI expenditures from administrative records, 2006-2011. Injury incidence assumptions for a population that had the OI programme compared with the same population without the OI programme was based on the previous OI effectiveness study, 2001-2011. Unit costs for medical care and lost productivity associated with fire injuries were from a national public database. From a combined payers' perspective limited to direct programme and medical costs, the estimated incremental cost per fire injury averted through the OI installation programme was $128,800 (2013 US$). When a conservative estimate of lost productivity among victims was included, the incremental cost per fire injury averted was negative, suggesting long-term cost savings from the programme. The OI programme from 2001 to 2011 resulted in an estimated net savings of $3.8 million, or a $3.21 return on investment for every dollar spent on the programme using a societal cost perspective. Community smoke alarm installation programmes could be cost-beneficial in high-fire-risk neighbourhoods. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Tailored stakeholder products help provide a vulnerability and adaptation assessment of Greek forests due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Roussos, Anargyros

2014-05-01

Greece, being part of the eastern Mediterranean basin, is an area particularly vulnerable to climate change and associated forest fire risk. The aim of this study is to assess the vulnerability of Greek forests to fire risk occurrence and identify potential adaptation options within the context of climate change through continuous interaction with local stakeholders. To address their needs, the following tools for the provision of climate information services were developed: 1. An application providing fire risk forecasts for the following 3 days (http://cirrus.meteo.noa.gr/forecast/bolam/index.htm) was developed from NOA to address the needs of short term fire planners. 2. A web-based application providing long term fire risk and other fire related indices changes due to climate change (time horizon up to 2050 and 2100) was developed in collaboration with the WWF Greece office to address the needs of long term fire policy makers (http://www.oikoskopio.gr/map/). 3. An educational tool was built in order to complement the two web-based tools and to further expand knowledge in fire risk modeling to address the needs for in-depth training. In particular, the second product provided the necessary information to assess the exposure to forest fires. To this aim, maps depicting the days with elevated fire risk (FWI>30) both for the control (1961-1990) and the near future period (2021-2050) were created by the web-application. FWI is a daily index that provides numerical ratings of relative fire potential based solely on weather observations. The meteorological inputs to the FWI System are daily noon values of temperature, air relative humidity, 10m wind speed and precipitation during the previous 24 hours. It was found that eastern lowlands are more exposed to fire risk followed by eastern high elevation areas, for both the control and near future period. The next step towards vulnerability assessment was to address sensitivity, ie the human-environmental conditions that can worsen or ameliorate the hazard. In our study static information concerning fire affecting factors, namely the topography and vegetation, was used to create a fire hazard map in order to assess the sensitivity factor. Land cover types for the year 2007 were combined with topographic information deriving from a digital elevation model order to produce these maps. High elevation continental areas were found to be the most sensitive areas followed by the lowland continental areas. Exposure and sensitivity were combined to produce the overall impact of climate change to forest fire risk. The adaptive capacity is defined by the ability of forests to adapt to changing environmental conditions. To assess the adaptive capacity of Greek forests, a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) tool was implemented and used by the stakeholders. The major proposed adaptation measures for Greek forests included fire prevention measures and the inclusion of the private forest covered areas in the fire fighting. Finally, vulnerability of Greek forest to fire was estimated as the overall impact of climate change minus the forests' adaptive capacity and was found to be medium for most areas in the country. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the EU project CLIM-RUN under contract FP7-ENV-2010-265192.

The effect of intraoral suction on oxygen-enriched surgical environments: a mechanism for reducing the risk of surgical fires.

PubMed

VanCleave, Andrea M; Jones, James E; McGlothlin, James D; Saxen, Mark A; Sanders, Brian J; Vinson, LaQuia A

2014-01-01

In this study, a mechanical model was applied in order to replicate potential surgical fire conditions in an oxygen-enriched environment with and without high-volume suction typical for dental surgical applications. During 41 trials, 3 combustion events were measured: an audible pop, a visible flash of light, and full ignition. In at least 11 of 21 trials without suction, all 3 conditions were observed, sometimes with an extent of fire that required early termination of the experimental trial. By contrast, in 18 of 20 with-suction trials, ignition did not occur at all, and in the 2 cases where ignition did occur, the fire was qualitatively a much smaller, candle-like flame. Statistically comparing these 3 combustion events in the no-suction versus with-suction trials, ignition (P = .0005), audible pop (P = .0211), and flash (P = .0092) were all significantly more likely in the no-suction condition. These results suggest a possible significant and new element to be added to existing surgical fire safety protocols toward making surgical fires the "never-events" they should be.

Smoke Sense: Citizen Science Study on Health Risk and Health Risk Communication During Wildfire Smoke Episodes

EPA Science Inventory

Why do we need to communicate smoke impacts on health? Indicence and severity of large fires are increasing. As emissions from the Wildland fires produce air pollution that adversely impacts people's health, incidence and severity of large fires are increasing. As emissions fr...

Improved Methods for Fire Risk Assessment in Low-Income and Informal Settlements

PubMed Central

Twigg, John; Christie, Nicola; Haworth, James; Osuteye, Emmanuel; Skarlatidou, Artemis

2017-01-01

Fires cause over 300,000 deaths annually worldwide and leave millions more with permanent injuries: some 95% of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Burn injury risk is strongly associated with low-income and informal (or slum) settlements, which are growing rapidly in an urbanising world. Fire policy and mitigation strategies in poorer countries are constrained by inadequate data on incidence, impacts, and causes, which is mainly due to a lack of capacity and resources for data collection, analysis, and modelling. As a first step towards overcoming such challenges, this project reviewed the literature on the subject to assess the potential of a range of methods and tools for identifying, assessing, and addressing fire risk in low-income and informal settlements; the process was supported by an expert workshop at University College London in May 2016. We suggest that community-based risk and vulnerability assessment methods, which are widely used in disaster risk reduction, could be adapted to urban fire risk assessment, and could be enhanced by advances in crowdsourcing and citizen science for geospatial data creation and collection. To assist urban planners, emergency managers, and community organisations who are working in resource-constrained settings to identify and assess relevant fire risk factors, we also suggest an improved analytical framework based on the Haddon Matrix. PMID:28157149

Operation and Development Status of the Spacecraft Fire Experiments (Saffire)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruff, Gary A.; Urban, David L.

2016-01-01

Since 2012, a series of Spacecraft Fire Experiments (Saffire) have been under development by the Spacecraft Fire Safety Demonstration (SFS Demo) project, funded by NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems Division. The overall objective of this project is to reduce the uncertainty and risk associated with the design of spacecraft fire safety systems for NASA's exploration missions. The approach to achieving this goal has been to define, develop, and conduct experiments that address gaps in spacecraft fire safety knowledge and capabilities identified by NASA's Fire Safety System Maturation Team. The Spacecraft Fire Experiments (Saffire-I, -II, and -III) are material flammability tests at length scales that are realistic for a spacecraft fire in low-gravity. The specific objectives of these three experiments are to (1) determine how rapidly a large scale fire grows in low-gravity and (2) investigate the low-g flammability limits compared to those obtained in NASA's normal gravity material flammability screening test. The experiments will be conducted in Orbital ATK's Cygnus vehicle after it has unberthed from the International Space Station. The tests will be fully automated with the data downlinked at the conclusion of the test before the Cygnus vehicle reenters the atmosphere. This paper discusses the status of the Saffire-I, II, and III experiments followed by a review of the fire safety technology gaps that are driving the development of objectives for the next series of experiments, Saffire-IV, V, and VI.

Estimating wildfire risk on a Mojave Desert landscape using remote sensing and field sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Linn, Peter F.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; DeFalco, Lesley A.; Inman, Richard D.; Abella, Scott R.

2013-01-01

Predicting wildfires that affect broad landscapes is important for allocating suppression resources and guiding land management. Wildfire prediction in the south-western United States is of specific concern because of the increasing prevalence and severe effects of fire on desert shrublands and the current lack of accurate fire prediction tools. We developed a fire risk model to predict fire occurrence in a north-eastern Mojave Desert landscape. First we developed a spatial model using remote sensing data to predict fuel loads based on field estimates of fuels. We then modelled fire risk (interactions of fuel characteristics and environmental conditions conducive to wildfire) using satellite imagery, our model of fuel loads, and spatial data on ignition potential (lightning strikes and distance to roads), topography (elevation and aspect) and climate (maximum and minimum temperatures). The risk model was developed during a fire year at our study landscape and validated at a nearby landscape; model performance was accurate and similar at both sites. This study demonstrates that remote sensing techniques used in combination with field surveys can accurately predict wildfire risk in the Mojave Desert and may be applicable to other arid and semiarid lands where wildfires are prevalent.

Crash-resistant fuel system effectiveness in civil helicopter crashes.

PubMed

Hayden, Mark S; Shanahan, Dennis F; Chen, Li-Hui; Baker, Susan P

2005-08-01

Crash-resistant fuel systems (CRFS) have demonstrated close to 100% effectiveness in survivable crashes of Army helicopters, but the technology has been slow to transfer into the civil helicopter arena. Federal standards for civil helicopter CRFS are less stringent than those for military helicopters. A reduction in standards for CRFS in military helicopters is being considered. The goal of this study was to determine whether crashes of civil helicopters with CRFS are less likely to result in post-crash fire than crashes of those without. Crashes of civil helicopters during 1982-2004 were analyzed, comparing Bell 206 helicopters manufactured with CRFS with Aerospatial 350 helicopters manufactured during the same period (post-1981), but lacking CRFS. Bell 206 helicopters with CRFS were also compared with earlier models without CRFS. The highest proportion of crashes with post-crash fires (11.3%) was in AS-350s manufactured after 1981 (non-CRFS), and the lowest (3.7%) was in Bell 206s (with CRFS) [unadjusted risk ratio (RR) = 3.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.04, 10.50; adjusted for light and weather, RR = 2.81, Cl = 0.82, 9.69]. Earlier models of Bell 206s without CRFS had higher risk of post-crash fire than post-1981 models with CRFS (7.4% vs. 3.7%; adjusted RR = 2.11, Cl = 0.82, 5.45). The results of this study suggest a better performance, in terms of post-crash fire prevention, of CRFS-equipped civil helicopters as compared with those without CRFS. It is possible that CRFS in civil helicopters have not achieved the same degree of effectiveness as CRFS in military helicopters. CRFS should be used more widely in civil helicopters. The more stringent CRFS requirements for military helicopters should not be reduced without further research.

A systematic conservation planning approach to fire risk management in Natura 2000 sites.

PubMed

Foresta, Massimiliano; Carranza, Maria Laura; Garfì, Vittorio; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Marchetti, Marco; Loy, Anna

2016-10-01

A primary challenge in conservation biology is to preserve the most representative biodiversity while simultaneously optimizing the efforts associated with conservation. In Europe, the implementation of the Natura 2000 network requires protocols to recognize and map threats to biodiversity and to identify specific mitigation actions. We propose a systematic conservation planning approach to optimize management actions against specific threats based on two fundamental parameters: biodiversity values and threat pressure. We used the conservation planning software Marxan to optimize a fire management plan in a Natura 2000 coastal network in southern Italy. We address three primary questions: i) Which areas are at high fire risk? ii) Which areas are the most valuable for threatened biodiversity? iii) Which areas should receive priority risk-mitigation actions for the optimal effect?, iv) which fire-prevention actions are feasible in the management areas?. The biodiversity values for the Natura 2000 spatial units were derived from the distribution maps of 18 habitats and 89 vertebrate species of concern in Europe (Habitat Directive 92/43/EEC). The threat pressure map, defined as fire probability, was obtained from digital layers of fire risk and of fire frequency. Marxan settings were defined as follows: a) planning units of 40 × 40 m, b) conservation features defined as all habitats and vertebrate species of European concern occurring in the study area, c) conservation targets defined according with fire sensitivity and extinction risk of conservation features, and d) costs determined as the complement of fire probabilities. We identified 23 management areas in which to concentrate efforts for the optimal reduction of fire-induced effects. Because traditional fire prevention is not feasible for most of policy habitats included in the management areas, alternative prevention practices were identified that allows the conservation of the vegetation structure. The proposed approach has potential applications for multiple landscapes, threats and spatial scales and could be extended to other valuable natural areas, including protected areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

Alcohol skin preparation causes surgical fires

PubMed Central

Rocos, B; Donaldson, LJ

2012-01-01

INTRODUCTION Surgical fires are a rare but serious preventable safety risk in modern hospitals. Data from the US show that up to 650 surgical fires occur each year, with up to 5% causing death or serious harm. This study used the National Reporting and Learning Service (NRLS) database at the National Patient Safety Agency to explore whether spirit-based surgical skin preparation fluid contributes to the cause of surgical fires. METHODS The NRLS database was interrogated for all incidents of surgical fires reported between 1 March 2004 and 1 March 2011. Each report was scrutinised manually to discover the cause of the fire. RESULTS Thirteen surgical fires were reported during the study period. Of these, 11 were found to be directly related to spirit-based surgical skin preparation or preparation soaked swabs and drapes. CONCLUSIONS Despite manufacturer's instructions and warnings, surgical fires continue to occur. Guidance published in the UK and US states that spirit-based skin preparation solutions should continue to be used but sets out some precautions. It may be that fire risk should be included in pre-surgical World Health Organization checklists or in the surgical training curriculum. Surgical staff should be aware of the risk that spirit-based skin preparation fluids pose and should take action to minimise the chance of fire occurring. PMID:22391366

Alcohol skin preparation causes surgical fires.

PubMed

Rocos, B; Donaldson, L J

2012-03-01

Surgical fires are a rare but serious preventable safety risk in modern hospitals. Data from the US show that up to 650 surgical fires occur each year, with up to 5% causing death or serious harm. This study used the National Reporting and Learning Service (NRLS) database at the National Patient Safety Agency to explore whether spirit-based surgical skin preparation fluid contributes to the cause of surgical fires. The NRLS database was interrogated for all incidents of surgical fires reported between 1 March 2004 and 1 March 2011. Each report was scrutinised manually to discover the cause of the fire. Thirteen surgical fires were reported during the study period. Of these, 11 were found to be directly related to spirit-based surgical skin preparation or preparation soaked swabs and drapes. Despite manufacturer's instructions and warnings, surgical fires continue to occur. Guidance published in the UK and US states that spirit-based skin preparation solutions should continue to be used but sets out some precautions. It may be that fire risk should be included in pre-surgical World Health Organization checklists or in the surgical training curriculum. Surgical staff should be aware of the risk that spirit-based skin preparation fluids pose and should take action to minimise the chance of fire occurring.

Cost-benefit analysis of passive fire protections in road LPG transportation.

PubMed

Paltrinieri, Nicola; Bonvicini, Sarah; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

2012-02-01

The cost-benefit evaluation of passive fire protection adoption in the road transport of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was investigated. In a previous study, mathematical simulations of real scale fire scenarios proved the effectiveness of passive fire protections in preventing the "fired" boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE), thus providing a significant risk reduction. In the present study the economical aspects of the adoption of fire protections are analyzed and an approach to cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is proposed. The CBA model is based on the comparison of the risk reduction due to fire protections (expressed in monetary terms by the value of a statistical life) and the cost of the application of fire protections to a fleet of tankers. Different types of fire protections were considered, as well as the possibility to apply protections to the entire fleet or only to a part of it. The application of the proposed model to a real-life case study is presented and discussed. Results demonstrate that the adoption of passive fire protections on road tankers, though not compulsory in Europe, can be economically feasible, thus representing a concrete measure to achieve control of the "major hazard accidents" cited by the European legislation. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

78 FR 45573 - Compensatory and Alternative Regulatory Measures for Nuclear Power Plant Fire Protection (CARMEN...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-29

... Nuclear Power Plant Fire Protection (CARMEN-FIRE) AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Notice of... Nuclear Power Plant Fire Protection (CARMEN-FIRE), Draft Report for Comment.'' DATES: Comments on this... CONTACT: Felix Gonzalez, Fire Research Branch, Division of Risk Analysis, Office of Nuclear Regulatory...

Post-fire land treatments and wind erosion -- lessons from the Milford Flat Fire, UT, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Mark E.; Bowker, Matthew A.; Reynolds, Richard L.; Goldstein, Harland L.

2012-01-01

We monitored sediment flux at 25 plots located at the northern end of the 2007 Milford Flat Fire (Lake Bonneville Basin, west-central Utah) to examine the effectiveness of post-fire rehabilitation treatments in mitigating risks of wind erosion during the first 3 years post fire. Maximum values were recorded during Mar–Jul 2009 when horizontal sediment fluxes measured with BSNE samplers ranged from 16.3 to 1251.0 g m−2 d−1 in unburned plots (n = 8; data represent averages of three sampler heights per plot), 35.2–555.3 g m−2 d−1 in burned plots that were not treated (n = 5), and 21.0–44,010.7 g m−2 d−1 in burned plots that received one or more rehabilitation treatments that disturbed the soil surface (n = 12). Fluxes during this period exhibited extreme spatial variability and were contingent on upwind landscape characteristics and surficial soil properties, with maximum fluxes recorded in settings downwind of treated areas with long treatment length and unstable fine sand. Nonlinear patterns of wind erosion attributable to soil and fetch effects highlight the profound importance of landscape setting and soil properties as spatial factors to be considered in evaluating risks of alternative post-fire rehabilitation strategies. By Mar–Jul 2010, average flux for all plots declined by 73.6% relative to the comparable 2009 period primarily due to the establishment and growth of exotic annual plants rather than seeded perennial plants. Results suggest that treatments in sensitive erosion-prone settings generally exacerbated rather than mitigated wind erosion during the first 3 years post fire, although long-term effects remain uncertain.

Nonfatal residential fire-related injuries treated in emergency departments--United States, 2001.

PubMed

2003-09-26

During 2000, the most recent year for which national mortality data are available, 3,907 persons died in the United States from fire-related injuries; residential fires accounted for 2,955 (76%) of these deaths. The National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) reported that approximately 396,500 residential fires occurred in 2001. Injuries from residential fires are preventable by improving awareness of the common causes of fires and by using simple interventions (e.g., properly maintained smoke alarms and fire escape plans). Surveillance of fire-related injuries can aid prevention by increasing the understanding of these injuries and by identifying at-risk populations to target for interventions and education. To characterize nonfatal residential fire-related injuries treated in U.S. hospital emergency departments (EDs) during 2001, CDC analyzed data from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System-All Injury Program (NEISS-AIP). This report summarizes the results of that analysis, which indicate that, in 2001, an estimated 25,717 nonfatal residential fire-related injuries were treated in U.S. hospital EDs. Fire prevention and safety interventions and education should target at-risk populations for fire-related injuries.

The Pictorial Fire Stroop: A Measure of Processing Bias for Fire-Related Stimuli

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gallagher-Duffy, Joanne; MacKay, Sherri; Duffy, Jim; Sullivan-Thomas, Meara; Peterson-Badali, Michele

2009-01-01

Fire interest is a risk factor for firesetting. This study tested whether a fire-specific emotional Stroop task can effectively measure an information-processing bias for fire-related stimuli. Clinic-referred and nonreferred adolescents (aged 13-16 years) completed a pictorial "Fire Stroop," as well as a self-report fire interest questionnaire and…

Assessing child time-activity patterns in relation to indoor cooking fires in developing countries: a methodological comparison.

PubMed

Barnes, Brendon; Mathee, Angela; Moiloa, Kebitsamang

2005-01-01

Indoor air pollution, caused by the indoor burning of biomass fuels, has been associated with an increased risk of child acute respiratory infections in developing countries. The amount of time that children spend in proximity to fires is a crucial determinant of the health impact of indoor air pollution. Researchers are reliant on social scientific methods to assess exposure based on child location patterns in relation to indoor fires. The inappropriate use of methods could lead to misclassification of exposure. The aim of this paper is to compare two methods (observations and questionnaire interview) with video analysis (which is thought to offer a more accurate assessment of exposure) in rural South African villages. Compared to video analysis, results show that observations may underestimate the amount of time that children spend very close (within 1.5 m) to fires. This is possibly due to reactivity caused by the presence of an observer. The questionnaire interview offers a more accurate assessment of the amounts of time that children spend within 1.5 m of fires at the expense of a detailed behavioural analysis. By drawing on the strengths and weaknesses of each, this paper discusses the appropriateness of methods to different research contexts.

Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance

PubMed Central

Ager, Alan A.; Evers, Cody R.; Day, Michelle A.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Barros, Ana M. G.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max

2017-01-01

We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments. PMID:28257416

Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Evers, Cody R; Day, Michelle A; Preisler, Haiganoush K; Barros, Ana M G; Nielsen-Pincus, Max

2017-01-01

We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments.

Reducing Community Vulnerability to Wildland Fires in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeley, J. E.

2010-12-01

In the US fires are not treated like other hazards such as earthquakes but rather as preventable through landscape fuel treatments and aggressive fire suppression. In southern California extreme fire weather has made it impossible to control all fires and thus loss of homes and lives is a constant threat to communities. There is growing evidence that indicate we are not likely to ever eliminate fires on these landscapes. Thus, it is time to reframe the fire problem and think of fires like we do with other natural hazards such as earthquakes. We do not attempt to stop earthquakes, rather the primary emphasis is on altering human infrastructure in ways that minimize community vulnerability. In other words we need to change our approach from risk elimination to risk management. This approach means we accept that we cannot eliminate fires but rather learn to live with fire by communities becoming more fire adapted. We potentially can make great strides in reducing community vulnerability by finding those factors with high impacts and are sensitive to changes in management. Presently, decision makers have relatively little guidance about which of these is likely to have the greatest impact. Future reductions in fire risk to communities requires we address both wildland and urban elements that contribute to destructive losses. Damage risk or D is determined by: D = f (I, S, E, G, H) where I = the probability of a fire starting in the landscape S = the probability of the fire reaching a size sufficient to reach the urban environment E = probability of it encroaching into the urban environment G = probability of fire propagating within the built environment H = probability of a fire, once within the built environment, resulting in the destruction of a building. In southern California, reducing I through more strategic fire prevention has potential for reducing fire risk. There are many ignition sources that could be reduced, such as replacing power line ignitions with underground lines, strategically employing arson patrols during Santa Ana wind events, enforcing regulations on power equipment use in wildland areas, k-rail barriers along roads to reduce fire spread into wildland areas etc. S, or the probability of fire reaching urban environments has historically been the primary focus of state and federal fire management activities. There is a need for greater focus on understanding the most strategic application of wildland fuel treatments. E, the probability of fire encroaching into the urban environment, has largely been addressed in the past by attention to wildland-urban interface (WUI) fuel treatments. The one factor that has perhaps the greatest potential for impacting E are patterns of urban growth, both in strategic placement and spatial patterning within communities, and this is an area where alternative future growth scenarios could have huge impacts on fire outcomes. G, the chance of fire propagating within the urban environment is a function of urban fuels, which include both home construction and landscaping. This area has the potential for effecting large changes in fire losses dependent upon future regulations on plantings in the urban environment.

Applying GIS to develop a model for forest fire risk: A case study in Espírito Santo, Brazil.

PubMed

Eugenio, Fernando Coelho; dos Santos, Alexandre Rosa; Fiedler, Nilton Cesar; Ribeiro, Guido Assunção; da Silva, Aderbal Gomes; dos Santos, Áureo Banhos; Paneto, Greiciane Gaburro; Schettino, Vitor Roberto

2016-05-15

A forest fire risk map is a basic element for planning and protecting forested areas. The main goal of this study was to develop a statistical model for preparing a forest fire risk map using GIS. Such model is based on assigning weights to nine variables divided into two classes: physical factors of the site (terrain slope, land-use/occupation, proximity to roads, terrain orientation, and altitude) and climatic factors (precipitation, temperature, water deficit, and evapotranspiration). In regions where the climate is different from the conditions of this study, the model will require an adjustment of the variables weights according to the local climate. The study area, Espírito Santo State, exhibited approximately 3.81% low risk, 21.18% moderate risk, 30.10% high risk, 41.50% very high risk, and 3.40% extreme risk of forest fire. The areas classified as high risk, very high and extreme, contemplated a total of 78.92% of heat spots. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emergency duties and deaths from heart disease among firefighters in the United States.

PubMed

Kales, Stefanos N; Soteriades, Elpidoforos S; Christophi, Costas A; Christiani, David C

2007-03-22

Heart disease causes 45% of the deaths that occur among U.S. firefighters while they are on duty. We examined duty-specific risks of death from coronary heart disease among on-duty U.S. firefighters from 1994 to 2004. We reviewed summaries provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency of the deaths of all on-duty firefighters between 1994 and 2004, except for deaths associated with the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Estimates of the proportions of time spent by firefighters each year performing various duties were obtained from a municipal fire department, from 17 large metropolitan fire departments, and from a national database. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for death from coronary heart disease during specific duties were calculated from the ratios of the observed odds to the expected odds, with nonemergency duties as the reference category. Deaths from coronary heart disease were associated with suppressing a fire (32.1% of all such deaths), responding to an alarm (13.4%), returning from an alarm (17.4%), engaging in physical training (12.5%), responding to nonfire emergencies (9.4%), and performing nonemergency duties (15.4%). As compared with the odds of death from coronary heart disease during nonemergency duties, the odds were 12.1 to 136 times as high during fire suppression, 2.8 to 14.1 times as high during alarm response, 2.2 to 10.5 times as high during alarm return, and 2.9 to 6.6 times as high during physical training. These odds were based on three estimates of the time that firefighters spend on their duties. Certain emergency firefighting duties were associated with a risk of death from coronary heart disease that was markedly higher than the risk associated with nonemergency duties. Fire suppression was associated with the highest risk, which was approximately 10 to 100 times as high as that for nonemergency duties. Copyright 2007 Massachusetts Medical Society.

Can Fire and Rescue Services and the National Health Service work together to improve the safety and wellbeing of vulnerable older people? Design of a proof of concept study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Older adults are at increased risk both of falling and of experiencing accidental domestic fire. In addition to advanced age, these adverse events share the risk factors of balance or mobility problems, cognitive impairment and socioeconomic deprivation. For both events, the consequences include significant injury and death, and considerable socioeconomic costs for the individual and informal carers, as well as for emergency services, health and social care agencies. Secondary prevention services for older people who have fallen or who are identifiable as being at high risk of falling include NHS Falls clinics, where a multidisciplinary team offers an individualised multifactorial targeted intervention including strength and balance exercise programmes, medication changes and home hazard modification. A similar preventative approach is employed by most Fire and Rescue Services who conduct Home Fire Safety Visits to assess and, if necessary, remedy domestic fire risk, fit free smoke alarms with instruction for use and maintenance, and plan an escape route. We propose that the similarity of population at risk, location, specific risk factors and the commonality of preventative approaches employed could offer net gains in terms of feasibility, effectiveness and acceptability if activities within these two preventative approaches were to be combined. Methods/Design This prospective proof of concept study, currently being conducted in two London boroughs, (Southwark and Lambeth) aims to reduce the incidence of both fires and falls in community-dwelling older adults. It comprises two concurrent 12-month interventions: the integration of 1) fall risk assessments into the Brigade's Home Fire Safety Visit and 2) fire risk assessments into Falls services by inviting older clinic attendees to book a Visit. Our primary objective is to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of these interventions. Furthermore, we are evaluating their acceptability and value to key stakeholders and services users. Discussion If our approach proves feasible and the risk assessment is both effective and acceptable, we envisage advocating a partnership model of working more broadly to fire and rescue services and health services in Britain, such that effective integration of preventative services for older people becomes routine for an ageing population. PMID:21129185

High resolution fire risk mapping in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorucci, Paolo; Biondi, Guido; Campo, Lorenzo; D'Andrea, Mirko

2014-05-01

The high topographic and vegetation heterogeneity makes Italy vulnerable to forest fires both in the summer and in winter. In particular, northern regions are predominantly characterized by a winter fire regime, mainly due to frequent extremely dry winds from the north, while southern and central regions and the large islands are characterized by a severe summer fire regime, because of the higher temperatures and prolonged lack of precipitation. The threat of wildfires in Italy is not confined to wooded areas as they extend to agricultural areas and urban-forest interface areas. The agricultural and rural areas, in the last century, have been gradually abandoned, especially in areas with complex topography. Many of these areas were subject to reforestation, leading to the spread of pioneer species mainly represented by Mediterranean conifer, which are highly vulnerable to fire. Because of the frequent spread of fire, these areas are limited to the early successional stages, consisting mainly of shrub vegetation; its survival in the competition with the climax species being ensured by the spread of fire itself. Due to the frequency of fire ignition — almost entirely man caused — the time between fires on the same area is at least an order of magnitude less than the time that would allow the establishment of forest climax species far less vulnerable to fire. In view of the limited availability of fire risk management resources, most of which are used in the management of national and regional air services, it is necessary to precisely identify the areas most vulnerable to fire risk. The few resources available can thus be used on a yearly basis to mitigate problems in the areas at highest risk by defining a program of forest management interventions, which is expected to make a significant contribution to the problem in a few years' time. The goal of such detailed planning is to dramatically reduce the costs associated with water bombers fleet management and fire extinguishing actions, leaving more resources to improve safety in areas at risk. With the availability of fire perimeters mapped over a period spanning from 5 to 10 years, depending by the region, a procedure was defined in order to assess areas at risk with high spatial resolution (900 m2) based on objective criteria by observing past fire events. The availability of fire perimeters combined with a detailed knowledge of topography and land cover allowed to understand which are the main features involved in forest fire occurrences and their behaviour. The seasonality of the fire regime was also considered, partitioning the analysis in two macro season (November- April and May- October). In addition, the total precipitation obtained from the interpolation of 30 years-long time series from 460 raingauges and the average air temperature obtained downscaling 30 years ERA-INTERIM data series were considered. About 48000 fire perimeters which burnt about 5500 km2 were considered in the analysis. The analysis has been carried out at 30 m spatial resolution. Some important considerations relating to climate and the territorial features that characterize the fire regime at national level contribute to better understand the forest fire phenomena. These results allow to define new strategies for forest fire prevention and management extensible to other geographical areas.

[Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].

PubMed

Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting

2015-07-01

The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located.

Implementation of National Fire Plan treatments near the wildland-urban interface in the western United States.

PubMed

Schoennagel, Tania; Nelson, Cara R; Theobald, David M; Carnwath, Gunnar C; Chapman, Teresa B

2009-06-30

Because of increasing concern about the effects of catastrophic wildland fires throughout the western United States, federal land managers have been engaged in efforts to restore historical fire behavior and mitigate wildfire risk. During the last 5 years (2004-2008), 44,000 fuels treatments were implemented across the western United States under the National Fire Plan (NFP). We assessed the extent to which these treatments were conducted in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where they would have the greatest potential to reduce fire risk in neighboring homes and communities. Although federal policies stipulate that significant resources should be invested in the WUI, we found that only 3% of the area treated was within the WUI, and another 8% was in an additional 2.5-km buffer around the WUI, totaling 11%. Only 17% of this buffered WUI is under federal ownership, which significantly limits the ability of federal agencies to implement fire-risk reduction treatments near communities. Although treatments far from the WUI may have some fire mitigation benefits, our findings suggest that greater priority must be given to locating treatments in and near the WUI, rather than in more remote settings, to satisfy NFP goals of reducing fire risk to communities. However, this may require shifting management and policy emphasis from public to private lands.

Soil responses to the fire and fire surrogate study in the Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Emily E.Y. Moghaddas; Scott L. Stephens

2007-01-01

The Fire and Fire Surrogate Study utilizes forest thinning and prescribed burning in attempt to create forest stand structures that reduce the risk of catastrophic wildfire. Replicated treatments consisting of mechanical tree harvest (commercial harvest plus mastication of submerchantable material), mechanical harvest followed by prescribed fire, prescribed fire alone...

Estimation of Wild Fire Risk Area based on Climate and Maximum Entropy in Korean Peninsular

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T.; Lim, C. H.; Song, C.; Lee, W. K.

2015-12-01

The number of forest fires and accompanying human injuries and physical damages has been increased by frequent drought. In this study, forest fire danger zone of Korea is estimated to predict and prepare for future forest fire hazard regions. The MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model is used to estimate the forest fire hazard region which estimates the probability distribution of the status. The MaxEnt model is primarily for the analysis of species distribution, but its applicability for various natural disasters is getting recognition. The detailed forest fire occurrence data collected by the MODIS for past 5 years (2010-2014) is used as occurrence data for the model. Also meteorology, topography, vegetation data are used as environmental variable. In particular, various meteorological variables are used to check impact of climate such as annual average temperature, annual precipitation, precipitation of dry season, annual effective humidity, effective humidity of dry season, aridity index. Consequently, the result was valid based on the AUC(Area Under the Curve) value (= 0.805) which is used to predict accuracy in the MaxEnt model. Also predicted forest fire locations were practically corresponded with the actual forest fire distribution map. Meteorological variables such as effective humidity showed the greatest contribution, and topography variables such as TWI (Topographic Wetness Index) and slope also contributed on the forest fire. As a result, the east coast and the south part of Korea peninsula were predicted to have high risk on the forest fire. In contrast, high-altitude mountain area and the west coast appeared to be safe with the forest fire. The result of this study is similar with former studies, which indicates high risks of forest fire in accessible area and reflects climatic characteristics of east and south part in dry season. To sum up, we estimated the forest fire hazard zone with existing forest fire locations and environment variables and had meaningful result with artificial and natural effect. It is expected to predict future forest fire risk with future climate variables as the climate changes.

The Fire and Fire Surrogates Study: Providing guidelines for fire in future forest watershed management decisions

Treesearch

Carleton B. Edminster; C. Phillip Weatherspoon; Daniel G. Neary

2000-01-01

As part of the 1998 Joint USDA/USDI Fire Science Program, the Fire and Fire Surrogates Study was proposed to establish and evaluate cross-comparisons of fuels treatment practices and techniques to reduce wildfire risk. This study evaluates prescribed fire, thinning, and various mechanical treatment methods for treating, removing, or using woody biomass. Site-specific...

Mortality and life expectancy of professional fire fighters in Hamburg, Germany: a cohort study 1950 – 2000

PubMed Central

Wagner, Norbert L; Berger, Jürgen; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Koch, Peter; Köchel, Anja; Peschke, Michel; Ossenbach, Trude

2006-01-01

Background The healthy worker effect may hide adverse health effects in hazardous jobs, especially those where physical fitness is required. Fire fighters may serve as a good example because they sometimes are severely exposed to hazardous substances while on the other hand their physical fitness and their strong health surveillance by far exceeds that of comparable persons from the general population. Methods To study this effect a historic cohort study was conducted to assess mortality and life expectancy of professional fire fighters of the City of Hamburg, Germany. Fire departments and trade unions questioned the validity of existing studies from outside Germany because of specific differences in the professional career. No mortality study had been conducted so far in Germany and only few in Europe. Information on all active and retired fire fighters was extracted from personnel records. To assure completeness of data the cohort was restricted to all fire fighters being active on January 1, 1950 or later. Follow up of the cohort ended on June 30th 2000. Vital status was assessed by personnel records, pension fund records and the German residence registries. Mortality of fire fighters was compared to mortality of the Hamburg and German male population by means of standardized mortality ratios. Life expectancy was calculated using life table analysis. Multivariate proportional hazard models were used to assess the effect of seniority, time from first employment, and other occupational characteristics on mortality. Results The cohort consists of 4640 fire fighters accumulating 111796 person years. Vital status could be determined for 98.2% of the cohort. By the end of follow up 1052 person were deceased. Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) for the total cohort was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.74–0.84) compared to Hamburg reference data and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.74–0.83) compared to National German reference data. Conditional life expectancy of a 30 year old fire fighter was 45.3 years as compared to 42.9 year of a German male in normal population. Job tasks, rank status and early retirement negatively influenced mortality. For fire fighters with comparably short duration of employment the mortality advantage diminished with longer time since first employment. SMR of persons who retired early was 1.25 (95% CI, 1.13–1.60) in reference to the general German population and the SMR of 1.71 (1.18–2.50) in the multivariate regression model. Conclusion A strong healthy worker effect was observed for the cohort, which diminished with longer time since first employment for fire fighters with shorter duration of employment, as expected. The negative effects on mortality of job tasks, rank status and in particular early retirement indicate the presence of undetermined and specific risks related to occupational hazards of fire fighters. PMID:17020604

Wildfire Risk Mapping over the State of Mississippi: Land Surface Modeling Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cooke, William H.; Mostovoy, Georgy; Anantharaj, Valentine G

2012-01-01

Three fire risk indexes based on soil moisture estimates were applied to simulate wildfire probability over the southern part of Mississippi using the logistic regression approach. The fire indexes were retrieved from: (1) accumulated difference between daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (P-E); (2) top 10 cm soil moisture content simulated by the Mosaic land surface model; and (3) the Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI). The P-E, KBDI, and soil moisture based indexes were estimated from gridded atmospheric and Mosaic-simulated soil moisture data available from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2). Normalized deviations of these indexes from the 31-year meanmore » (1980-2010) were fitted into the logistic regression model describing probability of wildfires occurrence as a function of the fire index. It was assumed that such normalization provides more robust and adequate description of temporal dynamics of soil moisture anomalies than the original (not normalized) set of indexes. The logistic model parameters were evaluated for 0.25 x0.25 latitude/longitude cells and for probability representing at least one fire event occurred during 5 consecutive days. A 23-year (1986-2008) forest fires record was used. Two periods were selected and examined (January mid June and mid September December). The application of the logistic model provides an overall good agreement between empirical/observed and model-fitted fire probabilities over the study area during both seasons. The fire risk indexes based on the top 10 cm soil moisture and KBDI have the largest impact on the wildfire odds (increasing it by almost 2 times in response to each unit change of the corresponding fire risk index during January mid June period and by nearly 1.5 times during mid September-December) observed over 0.25 x0.25 cells located along the state of Mississippi Coast line. This result suggests a rather strong control of fire risk indexes on fire occurrence probability over this region.« less

Managing wildland fire risk in Florida

Treesearch

J. Brenner; D. Carlton; S. McLellan; A. Dozier; T. Spencer; D. Buckley; A. Ralowicz

2010-01-01

Florida’s Wildland Fire Risk Assessment (FRA), which was completed in 2002, is a statewide effort to develop a comprehensive suite of standardized spatial data layers developed to support implementation of a statewide fuels management strategy. By maintaining focus on fire and fuel dynamics for use with scientifically credible local to statewide applications, the FRA...

Not Getting Burned: The Importance of Fire

Treesearch

Gregory S. Amacher; Arun S. Malik; Robert G. Haight

2005-01-01

We extend existing stand-level models of forest landowner behavior in the presence of fire risk to include the level and timing of fuel management activities. These activities reduce losses if a stand ignites. Based on simulations, we find the standard result that fire risk reduces the optimal rotation age does not hold when landowners use fuel management. Instead,...

Wildfire communication and climate risk mitigation

Treesearch

Robyn S. Wilson; Sarah M. McCaffrey; Eric Toman

2017-01-01

Throughout the late 19th century and most of the 20th century, risks associated with wildfire were addressed by suppressing fires as quickly as possible. However, by the 1960s, it became clear that fire exclusion policies were having adverse effects on ecological health, as well as contributing to larger and more damaging wildfires over time. Although federal fire...

Changes in future fire regimes under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, Kirsten; von Bloh, Werner; Lutz, Julia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Wu, Minchao; Arneth, Almut

2013-04-01

Fires are expected to change under future climate change, climatic fire is is increasing due to increase in droughts and heat waves affecting vegetation productivity and ecosystem function. Vegetation productivity influences fuel production, but can also limit fire spread. Vegetation-fire models allow investigating the interaction between wildfires and vegetation dynamics, thus non-linear effects between changes in fuel composition and production on fire as well as changes in fire regimes on fire-related plant mortality and fuel combustion. Here we present results from simulation experiments, where the vegetation-fire models LPJmL-SPITFIRE and LPJ-GUESS are applied to future climate change scenarios from regional climate models in Europe and Northern Africa. Climate change impacts on fire regimes, vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes are quantified and presented. New fire-prone regions are mapped and changes in fire regimes of ecosystems with a long-fire history are analyzed. Fuel limitation is likely to increase in Mediterranean-type ecosystems, indicating non-linear connection between increasing fire risk and fuel production. Increased warming in temperate ecosystems in Eastern Europe and continued fuel production leads to increases not only in climatic fire risk, but also area burnt and biomass burnt. This has implications for fire management, where adaptive capacity to this new vulnerability might be limited.

The 2016 Al-Mishraq sulphur plant fire: Source and health risk area estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Björnham, Oscar; Grahn, Håkan; von Schoenberg, Pontus; Liljedahl, Birgitta; Waleij, Annica; Brännström, Niklas

2017-11-01

On October 20, 2016, Daesh (Islamic State) set fire to the sulphur production site Al-Mishraq as the battle of Mosul in northern Iraq became more intense. An extensive plume of toxic sulphur dioxide and hydrogen sulphide caused comprehensive casualties. The intensity of the SO2 release was reaching levels of minor volcanic eruptions and the plume was observed by several satellites. By investigation of the measurement data from instruments on the MetOp-A, MetOp-B, Aura and Soumi satellites we have estimated the time-dependent source term to 161 kilotonnes sulphur dioxide released into the atmosphere during seven days. A long-range dispersion model was utilized to simulate the atmospheric transport over the Middle East. The ground level concentrations predicted by the simulation were compared with observation from the Turkey National Air Quality Monitoring Network. Finally, the simulation data provided, using a probit analysis of the simulated data, an estimate of the health risk area that was compared to reported urgent medical treatments.

GIS applied to location of fires detection towers in domain area of tropical forest.

PubMed

Eugenio, Fernando Coelho; Rosa Dos Santos, Alexandre; Fiedler, Nilton Cesar; Ribeiro, Guido Assunção; da Silva, Aderbal Gomes; Juvanhol, Ronie Silva; Schettino, Vitor Roberto; Marcatti, Gustavo Eduardo; Domingues, Getúlio Fonseca; Alves Dos Santos, Gleissy Mary Amaral Dino; Pezzopane, José Eduardo Macedo; Pedra, Beatriz Duguy; Banhos, Aureo; Martins, Lima Deleon

2016-08-15

In most countries, the loss of biodiversity caused by the fires is worrying. In this sense, the fires detection towers are crucial for rapid identification of fire outbreaks and can also be used in environmental inspection, biodiversity monitoring, telecommunications mechanisms, telemetry and others. Currently the methodologies for allocating fire detection towers over large areas are numerous, complex and non-standardized by government supervisory agencies. Therefore, this study proposes and evaluates different methodologies to best location of points to install fire detection towers considering the topography, risk areas, conservation units and heat spots. Were used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and unaligned stratified systematic sampling for implementing and evaluating 9 methods for allocating fire detection towers. Among the methods evaluated, the C3 method was chosen, represented by 140 fire detection towers, with coverage of: a) 67% of the study area, b) 73.97% of the areas with high risk, c) 70.41% of the areas with very high risk, d) 70.42% of the conservation units and e) 84.95% of the heat spots in 2014. The proposed methodology can be adapted to areas of other countries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development and application of a geospatial wildfire exposure and risk calculation tool

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Jessica R. Haas; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Joe H. Scott; Paul Langowski; Elise Bowne; David E. Calkin

2015-01-01

Applying wildfire risk assessment models can inform investments in loss mitigation and landscape restoration, and can be used to monitor spatiotemporal trends in risk. Assessing wildfire risk entails the integration of fire modeling outputs, maps of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs), characterization of fire effects, and articulation of relative importance...

Can acceptable risk be defined in wildland firefighting?

Treesearch

David Clancy

2011-01-01

Risk is an ever-present challenge for fire agencies, fire managers, and firefighters, who must ensure that risks are managed at a level that is as low as reasonably practicable. This challenge provides a significant dilemma as there is no one prescriptive method for—or consensus on—defining "acceptable risk" in the field of firefighting....

Fire risk and adaptation strategies in Northern Eurasian forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shvidenko, Anatoly; Schepaschenko, Dmitry

2013-04-01

On-going climatic changes substantially accelerate current fire regimes in Northern Eurasian ecosystems, particularly in forests. During 1998-2012, wildfires enveloped on average ~10.5 M ha year-1 in Russia with a large annual variation (between 3 and 30 M ha) and average direct carbon emissions at ~150 Tg C year-1. Catastrophic fires, which envelope large areas, spread in usually incombustible wetlands, escape from control and provide extraordinary negative impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, economics, infrastructure, environment, and health of population, become a typical feature of the current fire regimes. There are new evidences of correlation between catastrophic fires and large-scale climatic anomalies at a continental scale. While current climatic predictions suggest the dramatic warming (at the average at 6-7 °C for the country and up to 10-12°C in some northern continental regions), any substantial increase of summer precipitation does not expected. Increase of dryness and instability of climate will impact fire risk and severity of consequences. Current models suggest a 2-3 fold increase of the number of fires by the end of this century in the boreal zone. They predict increases of the number of catastrophic fires; a significant increase in the intensity of fire and amount of consumed fuel; synergies between different types of disturbances (outbreaks of insects, unregulated anthropogenic impacts); acceleration of composition of the gas emissions due to enhanced soil burning. If boreal forests would become a typing element, the mass mortality of trees would increase fire risk and severity. Permafrost melting and subsequent change of hydrological regimes very likely will lead to the degradation and destruction of boreal forests, as well as to the widespread irreversible replacement of forests by other underproductive vegetation types. A significant feedback between warming and escalating fire regimes is very probable in Russia and particularly in the permafrost areas. Overall, Russia should expect a disproportionate escalation of fire regimes compared to increasing climatic fire danger. Thus, development and implementation of an efficient adaptation strategy is a pressing problem of current forest management of the country. An appropriate system of forest fire protection which would be able to meet challenges of future climates is a corner stone of such a strategy. We consider possible systems solutions of this complex problem including (1) integrated ecological and socio-economic analysis of current and future fire regimes; (2) regional requirements to and specific features of a new paradigm of forest fire protection in the boreal zone of Northern Eurasia; (3) anticipatory strategy of the prevention of large-scale disturbances in forests, including adaptation of forest landscapes to the future climates (regulation of tree composition; setup of relevant spatial structure of forest landscapes; etc.); (4) implementation of an effective system of forest monitoring as part of integrated observing systems; (5) transition to ecologically-friendly systems of industrial development of northern territories; (6) development of new/ improvement of existing legislation and institutional frameworks of forest management which would be satisfactory to react on challenges of climate change; and (6) international cooperation.

Quantity, composition and water contamination potential of ash produced under different wildfire severities.

PubMed

Santín, Cristina; Doerr, Stefan H; Otero, Xosé L; Chafer, Chris J

2015-10-01

Wildfires frequently threaten water quality through the transfer of eroded ash and soil into rivers and reservoirs. The ability to anticipate risks for water resources from wildfires is fundamental for implementing effective fire preparedness plans and post-fire mitigation measures. Here we present a new approach that allows quantifying the amount and characteristics of ash generated under different wildfire severities and its respective water contamination potential. This approach is applied to a wildfire in an Australian dry sclerophyll eucalypt forest, but can be adapted for use in other environments. The Balmoral fire of October 2013 affected 12,694 ha of Sydney's forested water supply catchment. It produced substantial ash loads that increased with fire severity, with 6, 16 and 34 Mg ha(-1) found in areas affected by low, high and extreme fire severity, respectively. Ash bulk density was also positively related to fire severity. The increase with fire severity in the total load and bulk density of the ash generated is mainly attributed to a combination of associated increases in (i) total amount of fuel affected by fire and (ii) contribution of charred mineral soil to the ash layer. Total concentrations of pollutants and nutrients in ash were mostly unrelated to fire severity and relatively low compared to values reported for wildfire ash in other environments (e.g. 4.0-7.3mg As kg(-1); 2.3-4.1 B mg kg(-1); 136-154 P mg kg(-1)). Solubility of the elements analysed was also low, less than 10% of the total concentration for all elements except for B (6-14%) and Na (30-50%). This could be related to a partial loss of soluble components by leaching and/or wind erosion before the ash sampling (10 weeks after the fire and before major ash mobilisation by water erosion). Even with their relatively low concentrations of potential pollutants, the substantial total ash loads found here represent a water contamination risk if transported into the hydrological network during severe erosion events. For example, up to 4 Mg of ash-derived P could be delivered into a single water supply reservoir. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Some Wildfire Ignition Causes Pose More Risk of Destroying Houses than Others

PubMed Central

Penman, Trent D.; Price, Owen F.

2016-01-01

Many houses are at risk of being destroyed by wildfires. While previous studies have improved our understanding of how, when and why houses are destroyed by wildfires, little attention has been given to how these fires started. We compiled a dataset of wildfires that destroyed houses in New South Wales and Victoria and, by comparing against wildfires where no houses were destroyed, investigated the relationship between the distribution of ignition causes for wildfires that did and did not destroy houses. Powerlines, lightning and deliberate ignitions are the main causes of wildfires that destroyed houses. Powerlines were 6 times more common in the wildfires that destroyed houses data than in the wildfires where no houses were destroyed data and lightning was 2 times more common. For deliberate- and powerline-caused wildfires, temperature, wind speed, and forest fire danger index were all significantly higher and relative humidity significantly lower (P < 0.05) on the day of ignition for wildfires that destroyed houses compared with wildfires where no houses were destroyed. For all powerline-caused wildfires the first house destroyed always occurred on the day of ignition. In contrast, the first house destroyed was after the day of ignition for 78% of lightning-caused wildfires. Lightning-caused wildfires that destroyed houses were significantly larger (P < 0.001) in area than human-caused wildfires that destroyed houses. Our results suggest that targeting fire prevention strategies around ignition causes, such as improving powerline safety and targeted arson reduction programmes, and reducing fire spread may decrease the number of wildfires that destroy houses. PMID:27598325

Some Wildfire Ignition Causes Pose More Risk of Destroying Houses than Others.

PubMed

Collins, Kathryn M; Penman, Trent D; Price, Owen F

2016-01-01

Many houses are at risk of being destroyed by wildfires. While previous studies have improved our understanding of how, when and why houses are destroyed by wildfires, little attention has been given to how these fires started. We compiled a dataset of wildfires that destroyed houses in New South Wales and Victoria and, by comparing against wildfires where no houses were destroyed, investigated the relationship between the distribution of ignition causes for wildfires that did and did not destroy houses. Powerlines, lightning and deliberate ignitions are the main causes of wildfires that destroyed houses. Powerlines were 6 times more common in the wildfires that destroyed houses data than in the wildfires where no houses were destroyed data and lightning was 2 times more common. For deliberate- and powerline-caused wildfires, temperature, wind speed, and forest fire danger index were all significantly higher and relative humidity significantly lower (P < 0.05) on the day of ignition for wildfires that destroyed houses compared with wildfires where no houses were destroyed. For all powerline-caused wildfires the first house destroyed always occurred on the day of ignition. In contrast, the first house destroyed was after the day of ignition for 78% of lightning-caused wildfires. Lightning-caused wildfires that destroyed houses were significantly larger (P < 0.001) in area than human-caused wildfires that destroyed houses. Our results suggest that targeting fire prevention strategies around ignition causes, such as improving powerline safety and targeted arson reduction programmes, and reducing fire spread may decrease the number of wildfires that destroy houses.

PTSD and Sensation Seeking Tendency to Risk Behavior as Protective or Risk Factor

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-04-01

5] Jensen M. The relationship of the sensation seeking personality motive to burnout , injury and job satisfaction among fire fighters [master...7] Palmer R, Spaid W. Authoritarianism, inner/other directedness, and sensation seeking in firefighter/paramedics: their relationship with burnout ...Survey. Arch Gen Psychiatry 1995; 52: 1048-1060. [15] Wilson J, Smith K, Johnson S. A comparative analysis of post-traumatic stress syndrome among

Simulating spatial and temporally related fire weather

Treesearch

Isaac C. Grenfell; Mark Finney; Matt Jolly

2010-01-01

Use of fire behavior models has assumed an increasingly important role for managers of wildfire incidents to make strategic decisions. For fire risk assessments and danger rating at very large spatial scales, these models depend on fire weather variables or fire danger indices. Here, we describe a method to simulate fire weather at a national scale that captures the...

Spatial distribution of human-caused forest fires in Galicia (NW Spain)

Treesearch

M. L. Chas-Amil; J. Touza; P. Prestemon

2010-01-01

It is crucial for fire prevention policies to assess the spatial patterns of human-started fires and their relationship with geographical and socioeconomic aspects. This study uses fire reports for the period 1988-2006 in Galicia, Spain, to analyze the spatial distribution of human-induced fire risk attending to causes and underlying motivations associated with fire...

A study on fire spreading model for the safety distance between the neighborhood occupancies and historical buildings in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C. H.; Chien, S. W.; Ho, M. C.

2015-08-01

Cultural heritages and historical buildings are vulnerable against severe threats from fire. Since the 1970s, ten fire-spread events involving historic buildings have occurred in Taiwan, affecting a total of 132 nearby buildings. Developed under the influence of traditional Taiwanese culture, historic buildings in Taiwan are often built using non-fire resistant brick-wood structure and located in proximity to residential occupancies. Fire outbreak in these types of neighborhood will lead to severe damage of antiquities, leaving only unrecoverable historical imagery. This study is aimed to investigate the minimal safety distance required between a historical building and its surroundings in order to reduce the risk of external fire. This study is based on literature analysis and the fire spread model using a Fire Dynamics Simulator. The selected target is Jingmei Temple in Taipei City. This study explored local geography to identify patterns behind historical buildings distribution. In the past, risk reduction engineering for cultural heritages and historical buildings focused mainly on fire equipment and the available personnel with emergency response ability, and little attention was given to external fire risks and the affected damage. Through discussions on the required safety distance, this research provides guidelines for the following items: management of neighborhoods with historical buildings and consultation between the protection of cultural heritages and disaster prevention, reducing the frequency and extent of fire damages, and preserving cultural resource.

An ecosystem services framework for multidisciplinary research in the Colorado River headwaters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Semmens, D.J.; Briggs, J.S.; Martin, D.A.

2009-01-01

A rapidly spreading Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic is killing lodgepole pine forest in the Rocky Mountains, causing landscape change on a massive scale. Approximately 1.5 million acres of lodgepoledominated forest is already dead or dying in Colorado, the infestation is still spreading rapidly, and it is expected that in excess of 90 percent of all lodgepole forest will ultimately be killed. Drought conditions combined with dramatically reduced foliar moisture content due to stress or mortality from Mountain Pine Beetle have combined to elevate the probability of large fires throughout the Colorado River headwaters. Large numbers of homes in the wildland-urban interface, an extensive water supply infrastructure, and a local economy driven largely by recreational tourism make the potential costs associated with such a fire very large. Any assessment of fire risk for strategic planning of pre-fire management actions must consider these and a host of other important socioeconomic benefits derived from the Rocky Mountain Lodgepole Pine Forest ecosystem. This paper presents a plan to focus U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) multidisciplinary fire/beetle-related research in the Colorado River headwaters within a framework that integrates a wide variety of discipline-specific research to assess and value the full range of ecosystem services provided by the Rocky Mountain Lodgepole Pine Forest ecosystem. Baseline, unburned conditions will be compared with a hypothetical, fully burned scenario to (a) identify where services would be most severely impacted, and (b) quantify potential economic losses. Collaboration with the U.S. Forest Service will further yield a distributed model of fire probability that can be used in combination with the ecosystem service valuation to develop comprehensive, distributed maps of fire risk in the Upper Colorado River Basin. These maps will be intended for use by stakeholders as a strategic planning tool for pre-fire management activities and can be updated and improved adaptively on an annual basis as tree mortality, climatic conditions, and management actions unfold. 

Coupling the Biophysical and Social Dimensions of Wildfire Risk to Improve Wildfire Mitigation Planning.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Kline, Jeffrey D; Fischer, A Paige

2015-08-01

We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social science to improve understanding of community-wide risk perceptions and to predict property owners' capacities and willingness to mitigate risk by treating hazardous fuels and reducing the susceptibility of dwellings. In particular, we identify spatial scale mismatches in wildfire mitigation planning and their potential adverse impact on risk mitigation goals. Studies in other fire-prone regions suggest that these scale mismatches are widespread and contribute to continued wildfire dwelling losses. We discuss how risk perceptions and behavior contribute to scale mismatches and how they can be minimized through integrated analyses of landscape wildfire transmission and social factors that describe the potential for collaboration among landowners and land management agencies. These concepts are then used to outline an integrated socioecological planning framework to identify optimal strategies for local community risk mitigation and improve landscape-scale prioritization of fuel management investments by government entities. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluating Post-Fire Forest Resilience Using GIS and Multi-Criteria Analysis: An Example from Cape Sounion National Park, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arianoutsou, Margarita; Koukoulas, Sotirios; Kazanis, Dimitrios

2011-03-01

Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance in the mediterranean climate ecosystems of the world. Despite the fact that a lot of resources have been invested in fire prevention and suppression, the number of fires occurring in the Mediterranean Basin in the recent decades has continued to markedly increase. The understanding of the relationship between landscape and fire lies, among others, in the identification of the system's post-fire resilience. In our study, ecological and landscape data are integrated with decision-support techniques in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to evaluate the risk of losing post-fire resilience in Pinus halepensis forests, using Cape Sounion National Park, Central Greece, as a pilot case. The multi-criteria decision support approach has been used to synthesize both bio-indicators (woody cover, pine density, legume cover and relative species richness and annual colonizers) and geo-indicators (fire history, parent material, and slope inclination) in order to rank the landscape components. Judgments related to the significance of each factor were incorporated within the weights coefficients and then integrated into the multicriteria rule to map the risk index. Sensitivity analysis was very critical for assessing the contribution of each factor and the sensitivity to subjective weight judgments to the final output. The results of this study include a final ranking map of the risk of losing resilience, which is very useful in identifying the "risk hotspots", where post-fire management measures should be applied in priority.

Evaluating post-fire forest resilience using GIS and multi-criteria analysis: an example from Cape Sounion National Park, Greece.

PubMed

Arianoutsou, Margarita; Koukoulas, Sotirios; Kazanis, Dimitrios

2011-03-01

Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance in the mediterranean climate ecosystems of the world. Despite the fact that a lot of resources have been invested in fire prevention and suppression, the number of fires occurring in the Mediterranean Basin in the recent decades has continued to markedly increase. The understanding of the relationship between landscape and fire lies, among others, in the identification of the system's post-fire resilience. In our study, ecological and landscape data are integrated with decision-support techniques in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to evaluate the risk of losing post-fire resilience in Pinus halepensis forests, using Cape Sounion National Park, Central Greece, as a pilot case. The multi-criteria decision support approach has been used to synthesize both bio-indicators (woody cover, pine density, legume cover and relative species richness and annual colonizers) and geo-indicators (fire history, parent material, and slope inclination) in order to rank the landscape components. Judgments related to the significance of each factor were incorporated within the weights coefficients and then integrated into the multicriteria rule to map the risk index. Sensitivity analysis was very critical for assessing the contribution of each factor and the sensitivity to subjective weight judgments to the final output. The results of this study include a final ranking map of the risk of losing resilience, which is very useful in identifying the "risk hotspots", where post-fire management measures should be applied in priority.

National Fire Plan Research and Development 2001 Business Summary

Treesearch

USDA Forest Service

2002-01-01

Wildland fire remains a serious concern to the people of our Nation. This concern has been turned into action in the form of the National Fire Plan (NFP), an accelerated interagency effort, begun after the disastrous 2000 fire season, to step up, coordinate, and concentrate activity on reducing fire risks.

Fire Safety for Retired Adults: Participant's Coursebook.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker (Bonnie) and Associates, Inc., Crofton, MD.

The risk of dying from fire increases substantially among older adults. This document contains a collection of fire safety information for elderly people. Information includes procedures to follow in case of fire and early warning technologies such as smoke alarms. The booklet describes potential sources of fires (smoking, home heating, kitchens,…

Exposure to an Indoor Cooking Fire and Risk of Trachoma in Children of Kongwa, Tanzania

PubMed Central

Zambrano, Andrea I.; Muñoz, Beatriz E.; Mkocha, Harran; West, Sheila K.

2015-01-01

Background Elimination of blinding trachoma by 2020 can only be achieved if affected areas have effective control programs in place before the target date. Identifying risk factors for active disease that are amenable to intervention is important to successfully design such programs. Previous studies have linked sleeping by a cooking fire to trachoma in children, but not fully explored the mechanism and risks. We propose to determine the risk for active trachoma in children with exposure to cooking fires by severity of trachoma, adjusting for other known risk factors. Methods Complete census of 52 communities in Kongwa, Tanzania, was conducted to collect basic household characteristics and demographic information on each family member. Information on exposure to indoor cooking fires while the mother was cooking and while sleeping for each child was collected. 6656 randomly selected children ages 1-9yrs were invited to a survey where both eyelids were graded for follicular (TF) and intense trachoma (TI) using the WHO simplified grading scheme. Ocular swab were taken to assess the presence of Chlamydia trachomatis. Findings 5240 (79%) of the invited children participated in the study. Overall prevalence for trachoma was 6·1%. Odds for trachoma and increased severity were higher in children sleeping without ventilation and a cooking fire in their room (TF OR = 1·81, 1·00–3·27 and TI OR 4·06, 1·96–8·42). Children with TF or TI who were exposed were more likely to have infection than children with TF or TI who were not exposed. There was no increased risk with exposure to a cooking fire while the mother was cooking. Conclusions In addition to known risk factors for trachoma, sleeping by an indoor cooking fire in a room without ventilation was associated with active trachoma and appears to substantially increase the risk of intense inflammation. PMID:26046359

Exposure to an Indoor Cooking Fire and Risk of Trachoma in Children of Kongwa, Tanzania.

PubMed

Zambrano, Andrea I; Muñoz, Beatriz E; Mkocha, Harran; West, Sheila K

2015-01-01

Elimination of blinding trachoma by 2020 can only be achieved if affected areas have effective control programs in place before the target date. Identifying risk factors for active disease that are amenable to intervention is important to successfully design such programs. Previous studies have linked sleeping by a cooking fire to trachoma in children, but not fully explored the mechanism and risks. We propose to determine the risk for active trachoma in children with exposure to cooking fires by severity of trachoma, adjusting for other known risk factors. Complete census of 52 communities in Kongwa, Tanzania, was conducted to collect basic household characteristics and demographic information on each family member. Information on exposure to indoor cooking fires while the mother was cooking and while sleeping for each child was collected. 6656 randomly selected children ages 1-9 yrs were invited to a survey where both eyelids were graded for follicular (TF) and intense trachoma (TI) using the WHO simplified grading scheme. Ocular swab were taken to assess the presence of Chlamydia trachomatis. 5240 (79%) of the invited children participated in the study. Overall prevalence for trachoma was 6·1%. Odds for trachoma and increased severity were higher in children sleeping without ventilation and a cooking fire in their room (TF OR = 1·81, 1·00-3·27 and TI OR 4·06, 1·96-8·42). Children with TF or TI who were exposed were more likely to have infection than children with TF or TI who were not exposed. There was no increased risk with exposure to a cooking fire while the mother was cooking. In addition to known risk factors for trachoma, sleeping by an indoor cooking fire in a room without ventilation was associated with active trachoma and appears to substantially increase the risk of intense inflammation.

Opportunities for making wood products from small diameter trees in Colorado

Treesearch

Dennis L. Lynch; Kurt H. Mackes

2002-01-01

Colorado's forests are at risk to forest health problems and catastrophic fire. Forest areas at high risk to catastrophic fire, commonly referred to as Red Zones, contain 2.4 million acres in the Colorado Front Range and 6.3 million acres Statewide. The increasing frequency, size, and intensity of recent forest fires have prompted large appropriations of Federal...

Uncontrolled combustion of shredded tires in a landfill -Part 2: Population exposure, public health response, and an air quality index for urban fires

PubMed Central

Singh, Ashish; Spak, Scott N.; Stone, Elizabeth A.; Downard, Jared; Bullard, Robert; Pooley, Mark; Kostle, Pamela A.; Mainprize, Matthew W.; Wichman, Michael D.; Peters, Thomas; Beardsley, Douglas; Stanier, Charles O.

2015-01-01

The Iowa City Landfill in eastern Iowa, United States, experienced a fire lasting 18 days in 2012, in which a drainage layer of over 1 million shredded tires burned, generating smoke that impacted the surrounding metropolitan area of 130,000 people. This emergency required air monitoring, risk assessment, dispersion modeling, and public notification. This paper quantifies the impact of the fire on local air quality and proposes a monitoring approach and an Air Quality Index (AQI) for use in future tire fires and other urban fires. Individual fire pollutants are ranked for acute and cancer relative risks using hazard ratios, with the highest acute hazard ratios attributed to SO2, particulate matter, and aldehydes. Using a dispersion model in conjunction with the new AQI, we estimate that smoke concentrations reached unhealthy outdoor levels for sensitive groups out to distances of 3.1 km and 18 km at 24-h and 1-h average times, respectively. Modeled and measured concentrations of PM2.5 from smoke and other compounds such as VOCs and benzo[a]pyrene are presented at a range of distances and averaging times, and the corresponding cancer risks are discussed. Through reflection on the air quality response to the event, consideration of cancer and acute risks, and comparison to other tire fires, we recommend that all landfills with shredded tire liners plan for hazmat fire emergencies. A companion paper presents emission factors and detailed smoke characterization. PMID:25624787

Uncontrolled combustion of shredded tires in a landfill -Part 2: Population exposure, public health response, and an air quality index for urban fires.

PubMed

Singh, Ashish; Spak, Scott N; Stone, Elizabeth A; Downard, Jared; Bullard, Robert; Pooley, Mark; Kostle, Pamela A; Mainprize, Matthew W; Wichman, Michael D; Peters, Thomas; Beardsley, Douglas; Stanier, Charles O

2015-03-01

The Iowa City Landfill in eastern Iowa, United States, experienced a fire lasting 18 days in 2012, in which a drainage layer of over 1 million shredded tires burned, generating smoke that impacted the surrounding metropolitan area of 130,000 people. This emergency required air monitoring, risk assessment, dispersion modeling, and public notification. This paper quantifies the impact of the fire on local air quality and proposes a monitoring approach and an Air Quality Index (AQI) for use in future tire fires and other urban fires. Individual fire pollutants are ranked for acute and cancer relative risks using hazard ratios, with the highest acute hazard ratios attributed to SO 2 , particulate matter, and aldehydes. Using a dispersion model in conjunction with the new AQI, we estimate that smoke concentrations reached unhealthy outdoor levels for sensitive groups out to distances of 3.1 km and 18 km at 24-h and 1-h average times, respectively. Modeled and measured concentrations of PM 2.5 from smoke and other compounds such as VOCs and benzo[a]pyrene are presented at a range of distances and averaging times, and the corresponding cancer risks are discussed. Through reflection on the air quality response to the event, consideration of cancer and acute risks, and comparison to other tire fires, we recommend that all landfills with shredded tire liners plan for hazmat fire emergencies. A companion paper presents emission factors and detailed smoke characterization.

Forests at risk: integrating risk science into fuel management strategies.

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson

2008-01-01

The threat from wildland fire continues to grow across many regions of the Western United States. Drought, urbanization, and a buildup of fuels over the last century have contributed to increasing wildfire risk to property and highly valued natural resources. Fuel treatments, including thinning overly dense forests to reduce fuel and lower fire risk, have become a...

Understanding the transmission of wildfire risk on a fire prone landscape - A Case study from Central Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ager, Alan; Barros, Ana; Day, Michelle; Preisler, Haiganoush; Evers, Cody

2015-04-01

We develop the idea of risk transmission from large wildfires and apply network analyses to understand its importance within the 3.2 million ha Fire-People-Forest study area in central Oregon, US. Historic wildfires within the study and elsewhere in the western US frequently burn over long distances (e.g., 20-50 km) through highly fragmented landscapes with respect to ownership, fuels, management intensity, population density, and ecological conditions. The collective arrangement of fuel loadings in concert with weather and suppression efforts ultimately determines containment and the resulting fire perimeter. While spatial interactions among land parcels in terms of fire spread and intensity have been frequently noted by fire managers, quantifying risk and exposure transmission is not well understood. In this paper we used simulation modeling to quantify wildfire transmission and built a transmission network among and within land owners and communities within the study area. The results suggested that 84% of the predicted area burned within the 25 communities in the study area was from simulated fires that ignited on federal lands. The wildland urban interface surrounding the communities was predicted to burn at a rate of 2 % per year, with 57% of the area burned from fires ignited on federal lands. The node degree for communities indicated that simulated fires originated on about 6 different landowners. Network analyses in general revealed independent variation in transmitted fire among landowners in terms of both node degree (diversity of landowners exchanging fire) and transmitted fire, indicating that both the spatial grain of land ownership and wildfire topology contribute to transmission among land parcels. We discuss how network analyses of wildfire transmission can inform fire management goals for creating fire adapted communities, conserving biodiversity, and resolving competing demands for fire-prone ecosystem services. We also discuss how biophysical fire networks can potentially be coupled with social fire networks to improve wildfire mitigation planning.

Indicators on economic risk from global climate change.

PubMed

Grossmann, Wolf D; Steininger, Karl; Grossmann, Iris; Magaard, Lorenz

2009-08-15

Climate change mitigation requires a rapid decrease of global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from their present value of 8.4 Gt/C/year to, as of current knowledge, approximately 1 GtC/year by the end of the century. The necessary decrease of GHG emissions will have large impacts on existing and new investments with long lifetimes, such coal-fired power plants or buildings. Strategic decision making for major investments can be facilitated by indicators that express the likelihood of costly retrofitting or shut-down of carbon intensive equipment over time. We provide a set of simple indicators that support assessment and decision making in this field. Given a certain emissions target, carbon allowance prices in a cap-and-trade plan will depend on the development of the global economy and the degree to which the target is approached on the global and national levels. The indicators measure the degree to which a given emissions target is approached nationally and assess risks for long-lived investments subject to a range of emissions targets. A comparative case study on existing coal-fired power plants with planned plants and utility-scale photovoltaic power-plants confirms that high risk for coal-fired power plants is emerging. New legislation further confirms this result.

Restoring surface fire stabilizes forest carbon under extreme fire weather in the Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Daniel J. Krofcheck; Matthew D. Hurteau; Robert M. Scheller; E. Louise Loudermilk

2017-01-01

Climate change in the western United States has increased the frequency of extreme fire weather events and is projected to increase the area burned by wildfire in the coming decades. This changing fire regime, coupled with increased high-severity fire risk from a legacy of fire exclusion, could destabilize forest carbon (C), decrease net ecosystem exchange (...

Continental-scale simulation of burn probabilities, flame lengths, and fire size distribution for the United States

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Charles W. McHugh; Isaac Grenfell; Karin L. Riley

2010-01-01

Components of a quantitative risk assessment were produced by simulation of burn probabilities and fire behavior variation for 134 fire planning units (FPUs) across the continental U.S. The system uses fire growth simulation of ignitions modeled from relationships between large fire occurrence and the fire danger index Energy Release Component (ERC). Simulations of 10,...

Humans, Fires, and Forests - Social science applied to fire management

Treesearch

Hanna J. Cortner; Donald R. Field; Pam Jakes; James D. Buthman

2003-01-01

The 2000 and 2002 fire seasons resulted in increased political scrutiny of the nation's wildland fire threats, and given the fact that millions of acres of lands are still at high risk for future catastrophic fire events, the issues highlighted by the recent fire seasons are not likely to go away any time soon. Recognizing the magnitude of the problem, the...

Responsible for Fire Safety. Seventh Grade. Fire Safety for Texans: Fire and Burn Prevention Curriculum Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Texas State Commission on Fire Protection, Austin.

This booklet comprises the seventh grade component of a series of curriculum guides on fire and burn prevention. Designed to meet the age-specific needs of seventh grade students, its objectives include: (1) practicing responsible decision-making regarding fire and burn hazards, including peer pressure related to fire risks; and (2) practicing…

Risks and issues in fire safety on the Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, Robert

1993-01-01

A fire in the inhabited portion of a spacecraft is a greatly feared hazard, but fire protection in space operations is complicated by two factors. First, the spacecraft cabin is an enclosed volume, which limits the resources for fire fighting and the options for crew escape. Second, an orbiting spacecraft experiences a balance of forces, creating a near-zero-gravity (microgravity) environment that profoundly affects the characteristics of fire initiation, spread, and suppression. The current Shuttle Orbiter is protected by a fire-detection and suppression system whose requirements are derived of necessity from accepted terrestrial and aircraft standards. While experience has shown that Shuttle fire safety is adequate, designers recognize that improved systems to respond specifically to microgravity fire characteristics are highly desirable. Innovative technology is particularly advisable for the Space Station, a forthcoming space community with a complex configuration and long-duration orbital missions, in which the effectiveness of current fire-protection systems is unpredictable. The development of risk assessments to evaluate the probabilities and consequences of fire incidents in spacecraft are briefly reviewed. It further discusses the important unresolved issues and needs for improved fire safety in the Space Station, including those of material selection, spacecraft atmospheres, fire detection, fire suppression, and post-fire restoration.

A statistical procedure for fire risk mapping in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorucci, Paolo; Biondi, Guido; Campo, Lorenzo; D'Andrea, Mirko

2015-04-01

The high topographic and vegetation heterogeneity makes Italy vulnerable to forest fires both in the summer and in winter. In particular, northern regions are predominantly characterized by a winter fire regime, mainly due to frequent extremely dry winds from the north, while southern and central regions and the large islands are characterized by a severe summer fire regime, because of the higher temperatures and prolonged lack of precipitation. The threat of wildfires in Italy is not confined to wooded areas as they extend to agricultural areas and urban-forest interface areas. In view of the limited availability of fire risk management resources, most of which are used in the management of national and regional air services, it is necessary to precisely identify the areas most vulnerable to fire risk. The few resources available can thus be used on a yearly basis to mitigate problems in the areas at highest risk by defining a program of forest management interventions, which is expected to make a significant contribution to the problem in a few years' time. Given the availability of fire perimeters mapped over a period spanning from 5 to 10 years, depending by the region, a statistical procedure was defined in order to assess areas at risk based on objective criteria by observing past fire events. The availability of fire perimeters combined with a detailed knowledge of topography and land cover allowed to understand which are the main features involved in forest fire occurrences and their behavior. The seasonality of the fire regime was also considered, partitioning the analysis in two macro season (November-April and May- October). In addition, the total precipitation obtained from the interpolation of 30 years-long time series from 460 raingauges and the average air temperature obtained downscaling 30 years ERA-INTERIM data series were considered. The analysis consists on the subdivision of the territory in classes based on the named information layers (elevation, slope, rainfall height, temperature, etc.) with a recursive algorithm that ensures the equal numerosity of each class. The number of fires occurred in each class is then assessed basing on time series in the last decade, in order to have an estimation of the fire hazard with a contant statistical confidence. The analysis was carried out at a spatial resolution of 500 m on the whole Italian territory by using a dataset of fires occurrences that spans from 2007 to 2013.

FEES: design of a Fire Economics Evaluation System

Treesearch

Thomas J. Mills; Frederick W. Bratten

1982-01-01

The Fire Economics Evaluation System (FEES)--a simulation model--is being designed for long-term planning application by all public agencies with wildland fire management responsibilities. A fully operational version of FEES will be capable of estimating the economic efficiency, fire-induced changes in resource outputs, and risk characteristics of a range of fire...

Fire Risk and Residential Development: A GIS Analysis

Treesearch

Jennifer L. Rechel; James B. Davis; Ted K. Bradshaw

1992-01-01

Population growth is rapid in rural areas in California. This growth into the wildland-urban interface makes fire protection and suppression more difficult. Fire managers have opportunities to reduce fire danger by improving housing development patterns; however, the overall density and placement of houses is usually set by criteria other than fire danger. By...

Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments

Treesearch

M. A. Cochrane; C. J. Moran; M. C. Wimberly; A. D. Baer; M. A. Finney; K. L. Beckendorf; J. Eidenshink; Z. Zhu

2012-01-01

Human land use practices, altered climates, and shifting forest and fire management policies have increased the frequency of large wildfires several-fold. Mitigation of potential fire behaviour and fire severity have increasingly been attempted through pre-fire alteration of wildland fuels using mechanical treatments and prescribed fires. Despite annual treatment of...

Seasonal Forecasting of Fires across Southern Borneo, 1997-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spessa, Allan; Field, Robert; Kaiser, Johannes; Langner, Andreas; Moore, Jonathan; Pappenberger, Florian; Siegert, Florian; Weber, Ulrich

2014-05-01

Wildfire is a fundamental Earth System process, affecting almost all biogeochemical cycles, and all vegetated biomes. Fires are naturally rare in humid tropical forests, and tropical trees are generally killed by even low-intensity fires. However, fire activity in the tropics has increased markedly over the past 15-20 years, especially in Indonesia, Amazonia, and more recently, central Africa also. Since fire is the prime tool for clearing land in the tropics, it not surprising that the increase in fire activity is strongly associated with increased levels of deforestation, which is driven mainly by world-wide demand for timber and agricultural commodities. The consequences of deforestation fires for biodiversity conservation and emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols are enormous. For example, carbon emissions from tropical biomass burning are around 20% of annual average global fossil fuel emissions. The destructive fires in Indonesia during the exceptionally strong El Niño-induced drought in late 1997 and early 1998 rank as some of the largest peak emissions events in recorded history. Past studies estimate about 1Gt of carbon was released to the atmosphere from the Indonesian fires in 1997 (which were mostly concentrated in carbon-rich forested peatlands). This amount is equivalent to about 14% of the average global annual fossil fuel emissions released during the 1990s. While not as large as the 1997-98 events, significant emissions from biomass burning have also been recorded in other (less severe) El Niño years across Indonesia, in particular, 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2009-2010. Recent climate modelling studies indicate that the frequency of El Niño events may increase under future climate change, affecting many tropical countries, including Indonesia. An increased drought frequency plus a projected increase in population and land use pressures in Indonesia, imply there will be even more fires and emissions in future across the region. However, while several studies using historical data have established negative relationships between fires and antecedent rainfall, and/or positive relationships between fires and deforestation in regions affected by El Nino, comparatively little work has attempted to predict fires and emissions in such regions. Ensemble seasonal climate forecasts issued with several months lead-time have been applied to support risk assessment systems in many fields, notably agricultural production and natural disaster management of flooding, heat waves, drought and fire. The USA, for example, has a long-standing seasonal fire danger prediction system. Fire danger monitoring systems have been operating in Indonesia for over a decade, but, as of yet, no fire danger prediction systems exist. Given the effort required to mobilise suppression and prevention measures in Indonesia, one could argue that high fire danger periods must be anticipated months in advance for mitigation and response measures to be effective. To address this need, the goal of our work was to examine the utility of seasonal rainfall forecasts in predicting severe fires in Indonesia more than one month in advance, using southern Borneo (comprising the bulk of Kalimantan) as a case study. Here we present the results of comparing seasonal forecasts of monthly rainfall from ECMWF's System 4 against i) observed rainfall (GPCP), and ii) burnt area and deforestation (MODIS, AVHRR and Landsat) across southern Borneo for the period 1997-2010. Our results demonstrate the utility of using ECMWF's seasonal climate forecasts for predicting fire activity in the region. Potential applications include improved fire mitigation and responsiveness, and improved risk assessments of biodiversity and carbon losses through fire. These are important considerations for forest protection programmes (e.g. REDD+), forest carbon markets and forest (re)insurance enterprises.

Assessing the home fire safety of urban older adults: a case study.

PubMed

Twyman, Stephanie; Fahey, Erin; Lehna, Carlee

2014-01-01

Older adults are at a higher risk for fatal house fire injury due to decreased mobility, chronic illness, and lack of smoke alarms. The purpose of this illustrative case study is to describe the home fire safety (HFS) status of an urban older adult who participated in a large study funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). During a home visit with the participant, HFS data were collected from documents, observation, physical artifacts, reflective logs, and interviews. Numerous HFS hazards were identified including non-working smoke alarms, inadequate number and inappropriate placement of smoke alarms, lack of carbon monoxide (CO) alarms, inability to identify a home fire escape plan, hot water heater temperature set too high, and cooking hazards. Identification of HFS risk factors will assist in the development of educational materials that can be tailored to the older adult population to decrease their risk of fire-related injuries and death.

Liability, regulation, and endogenous risk: the incidence and serverity of escaped prescribed fires in the United States

Treesearch

Jonathan Yoder

2008-01-01

Prescribed fire is a useful but risky method for reducing the general wildfire risk and improving wildlife habitats, biodiversity, timber growth, and agricultural forage. In the past 15 years, laws to further promote the use of prescribed fire have been adopted in several states. This article examines the effect of liability laws and common regulations on the incidence...

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Community Risk

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

HOUR OF THE DAY .................................... 35 1. Hourly Distribution Summary Analysis .......................... 40 2. Blackstone Corner...Figure 15. Total EMS Calls Compared to Station 5 EMS Calls ...................... 42 Figure 16. Blackstone Corner...Total EMS Calls for the Fresno City Fire Department 2. Blackstone Corner Not all of the coverage area requests for service follow a daytime

Comparing the role of fuel breaks across southern California national forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Brennan, Teresa J.

2011-01-01

Fuel treatment of wildland vegetation is the primary approach advocated for mitigating fire risk at the wildland-urban interface (WUI), but little systematic research has been conducted to understand what role fuel treatments play in controlling large fires, which factors influence this role, or how the role of fuel treatments may vary over space and time. We assembled a spatial database of fuel breaks and fires from the last 30 years in four southern California national forests to better understand which factors are consistently important for fuel breaks in the control of large fires. We also explored which landscape features influence where fires and fuel breaks are most likely to intersect. The relative importance of significant factors explaining fuel break outcome and number of fire and fuel break intersections varied among the forests, which reflects high levels of regional landscape diversity. Nevertheless, several factors were consistently important across all the forests. In general, fuel breaks played an important role in controlling large fires only when they facilitated fire management, primarily by providing access for firefighting activities. Fire weather and fuel break maintenance were also consistently important. Models and maps predicting where fuel breaks and fires are most likely to intersect performed well in the regions where the models were developed, but these models did not extend well to other regions, reflecting how the environmental controls of fire regimes vary even within a single ecoregion. Nevertheless, similar mapping methods could be adopted in different landscapes to help with strategic location of fuel breaks. Strategic location of fuel breaks should also account for access points near communities, where fire protection is most important.

Prevalence of risk factors for residential fire and burn injuries in an American Indian community.

PubMed Central

Mobley, C; Sugarman, J R; Deam, C; Giles, L

1994-01-01

Fatality rates from residential fires are high among American Indians. Contact burns and scalds are also among the leading types of thermal injuries. Information about the prevalence of risk factors for burn injuries is required to design interventions aimed at reducing residential fire and burn injuries. The authors conducted a survey in July and August 1992 of 68 households located in a small American Indian community in Washington State to ascertain the prevalence of selected risk factors for residential fire and burn injuries. Nearly all households (96 percent) in the study had a smoke detector, and 95 percent of those tested were functioning. However, a high prevalence of other household characteristics associated with excess risk of residential fire and burn injuries was identified: 59 percent of households had at least one member who smoked, 25 percent had a member who smoked in bed, 38 percent had a member who drank alcohol and smoked at the same time, 46 percent used wood stoves as a heat source, and 15 percent of households were mobile homes. Thirteen percent of households had at least one fire during the previous 3 years, and the incidence of burns due to all causes and requiring medical treatment was 1.5 per 100 persons per year. Hot water temperature was measured to determine the potential risk for scald burns, and 48 percent of households had a maximum hot water temperature of 130 degrees or more Fahrenheit. Such surveys can guide intervention strategies to reduce residential fire and burn injuries in American Indian communities. PMID:7938394

Finding simplicity in complexity: modelling post-fire hydrogeomorphic processes and risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, Gary; Langhans, Christoph; Lane, Patrick; Nyman, Petter

2017-04-01

Post-fire runoff and erosion can shape landscapes, destroy infrastructure, and result in the loss of human life. However even within seemingly similar geographic regions post-fire hydro-geomorphic responses vary from almost no response through to catastrophic flash floods and debris flows. Why is there so much variability, and how can we predict areas at risk? This presentation describes the research journey taken by the post-fire research group at The University of Melbourne to answer this question for the se Australian uplands. Key steps along the way have included identifying the dominant erosion processes (and their forcings), and the key system properties controlling the rates of these dominant processes. The high degree of complexity in the interactions between the forcings, the system properties, and the erosion processes, necessitated the development of a simplified conceptual representation of post-fire hydrogeomorphic system that was conducive to modelling and simulation. Spatially mappable metrics (and proxies) for key system forcings and properties were then required to parameterize and drive the model. Each step in this journey has depended on new research, as well as ongoing feedback from land and water management agencies tasked with implementing these risk models and interpreting the results. These models are now imbedded within agencies and used for strategic risk assessments, for tactical response during fires, and for post-fire remediation and risk planning. Reflecting on the successes and failures along the way provides for some more general insights into the process of developing research-based models for operational use by land and water management agencies.

Risk management: Core principles and practices, and their relevance to wildland fire

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Donald G. MacGregor; Dave Calkin

2016-01-01

The Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture faces a future of increasing complexity and risk, pressing financial issues, and the inescapable possibility of loss of human life. These issues are perhaps most acute for wildland fire management, the highest risk activity in which the Forest Service engages. Risk management (RM) has long been put forth as an...

El Niño Could Drive Intense Season for Amazon Fires

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

El Niño conditions in 2015 and early 2016 altered rainfall patterns around the world. In the Amazon, El Niño reduced rainfall during the wet season, leaving the region drier at the start of the 2016 dry season than any year since 2002, according to NASA satellite data. Wildfire risk for the dry season months of July to October this year now exceeds fire risk in 2005 and 2010, drought years when wildfires burned large areas of Amazon rainforest, said Doug Morton, an Earth scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center who helped create the fire forecast. "Severe drought conditions at the start of the dry season set the stage for extreme fire risk in 2016 across the southern Amazon," Morton said. The Amazon fire forecast uses the relationship between climate and active fire detections from NASA satellites to predict fire season severity during the region’s dry season. Developed in 2011 by scientists at University of California, Irvine and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, the forecast model is focused particularly on the link between sea surface temperatures and fire activity. Warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic oceans shift rainfall away from the Amazon region, increasing the risk of fires during dry season months. Read more: go.nasa.gov/2937ADt NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Spatial patterns and controls on historical fire regimes and forest structure in the Klamath Mountains

Treesearch

Alan H. Taylor; Carl N. Skinner

2003-01-01

Fire exclusion in mixed conifer forests has increased the risk of fire due to decades of fuel accumulation. Restoration of fire into altered forests is a challenge because of a poor understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of fire regimes. In this study the spatial and temporal characteristics of fire regimes and forest age structure are reconstructed in a...

Effects of fire on fish populations: Landscape perspectives on persistence of native fishes and nonnative fish invasions

Treesearch

Jason B. Dunham; Michael K. Young; Robert E. Gresswell; Bruce E. Rieman

2003-01-01

Our limited understanding of the short and long-term effects of fire on fish contributes to considerable uncertainty in assessments of the risks and benefits of fire management alternatives. A primary concern among the many potential effects of fire is the effects of fire and fire management on persistence of native fish populations. Limited evidence suggests...

Response of Amazon Fires to the 2015/2016 El Niño and Evaluation of a Seasonal Fire Season Severity Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.

2016-12-01

Recent work has established that year-to-year variability in drought and fire within the Amazon responds to a dual forcing from ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic. Teleconnections between the Pacific and the Amazon are strongest between October and March, when El Niño contributes to below-average precipitation during the wet season. A reduced build-up of soil moisture during the wet season, in turn, may limit water availability and transpiration in tropical forests during the following dry season, lowering surface humidity, drying fuels, and allowing fires to spread more easily through the understory. The delayed influence of soil moisture through this land - atmosphere coupling provides a means to predict fire season severity 3-6 months before the onset of the dry season. With the aim of creating new opportunities for forest conservation, we have developed an experimental seasonal fire forecasting system for the Amazon. The 2016 fire season severity forecast, released in June by UCI and NASA, predicts unusually high risk across eastern Peru, northern Bolivia, and Brazil. Several surface and satellite data streams confirm that El Niño teleconnections had a significant impact on wet season hydrology within the Amazon. Rainfall observations from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre provided evidence that cumulative precipitation deficits during August-April were 1 to 2 standard deviations below the long-term mean for most of the basin. These observations were corroborated by strong negative terrestrial water storage anomalies measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, and by fluorescence and vegetation index observations from other sensors that indicated elevated canopy stress. By August 3rd, satellite observations showed above average fire activity in most, but not all, forecast regions. Using additional satellite observations that become available later this year, we plan to describe the full spatial and temporal pattern of fires within the Amazon during the 2016 dry season and evaluate the success of our forecast. As a part of this analysis, we will compare fires from 2016 with other years of extreme drought (i.e., 2005 and 2010), and assess how trends in land use, including regional changes in deforestation, modify El Niño-driven fire risk.

Health concerns of the U.S. fire service: perspectives from the firehouse.

PubMed

Jahnke, Sara A; Poston, Walker S C; Jitnarin, Nattinee; Haddock, C Keith

2012-01-01

Firefighters are expected to respond to any domestic emergency at a moment's notice, and therefore their health and readiness are key to the public safety net. Although emerging research is focusing on understanding firefighters' increased risk for disease and injury, the perspectives of fire service personnel is lacking. This study uses the cross-sectional qualitative data collection techniques of key informant interviews and focus groups. Data collection occurred with a national sample of firefighters from 28 (municipal and federal) career fire departments. Participants were 332 career firefighters (57.2%), company officers (23.4%), fire chiefs (15.4%), and other fire service personnel (3.9%). Focus groups and informant interviews were conducted with firefighters, fire chiefs, health promotion personnel, and medical directors to assess attitudes, opinions, and perceptions about firefighter health. Major themes that developed among fire service personnel included concerns about cancer, risk of cardiovascular disease, the importance of and barriers to physical fitness, the food culture of the firehouse, psychological stress resulting from repeated exposure to trauma, sleep disruptions, injuries, and risk for infectious disease. Health concerns identified by firefighters are juxtaposed with current efforts and trends within the national fire service. The health concerns of firefighters parallel both available epidemiological research and the health priorities of national fire service organizations. Unfortunately, these concerns often are in contrast with efforts by local governments to limit their financial liability for illnesses presumed to be caused by occupational exposures and long-held traditions in the fire service. This study highlights the need for epidemiological surveillance of firefighters and innovative health and organizational policy in the fire service. Future directions for the fire service, the public health community, and researchers are discussed.

Assessing Fire Weather Index using statistical downscaling and spatial interpolation techniques in Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karali, Anna; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Frias, Maria Dolores; Hatzaki, Maria; Roussos, Anargyros; Casanueva, Ana

2013-04-01

Forest fires have always been present in the Mediterranean ecosystems, thus they constitute a major ecological and socio-economic issue. The last few decades though, the number of forest fires has significantly increased, as well as their severity and impact on the environment. Local fire danger projections are often required when dealing with wild fire research. In the present study the application of statistical downscaling and spatial interpolation methods was performed to the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), in order to assess forest fire risk in Greece. The FWI is used worldwide (including the Mediterranean basin) to estimate the fire danger in a generalized fuel type, based solely on weather observations. The meteorological inputs to the FWI System are noon values of dry-bulb temperature, air relative humidity, 10m wind speed and precipitation during the previous 24 hours. The statistical downscaling methods are based on a statistical model that takes into account empirical relationships between large scale variables (used as predictors) and local scale variables. In the framework of the current study the statistical downscaling portal developed by the Santander Meteorology Group (https://www.meteo.unican.es/downscaling) in the framework of the EU project CLIMRUN (www.climrun.eu) was used to downscale non standard parameters related to forest fire risk. In this study, two different approaches were adopted. Firstly, the analogue downscaling technique was directly performed to the FWI index values and secondly the same downscaling technique was performed indirectly through the meteorological inputs of the index. In both cases, the statistical downscaling portal was used considering the ERA-Interim reanalysis as predictands due to the lack of observations at noon. Additionally, a three-dimensional (3D) interpolation method of position and elevation, based on Thin Plate Splines (TPS) was used, to interpolate the ERA-Interim data used to calculate the index. Results from this method were compared with the statistical downscaling results obtained from the portal. Finally, FWI was computed using weather observations obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, mainly in the south continental part of Greece and a comparison with the previous results was performed.

Risk management of emergency service vehicle crashes in the United States fire service: process, outputs, and recommendations.

PubMed

Bui, David P; Pollack Porter, Keshia; Griffin, Stephanie; French, Dustin D; Jung, Alesia M; Crothers, Stephen; Burgess, Jefferey L

2017-11-17

Emergency service vehicle crashes (ESVCs) are a leading cause of death in the United States fire service. Risk management (RM) is a proactive process for identifying occupational risks and reducing hazards and unwanted events through an iterative process of scoping hazards, risk assessment, and implementing controls. We describe the process, outputs, and lessons learned from the application of a proactive RM process to reduce ESVCs in US fire departments. Three fire departments representative of urban, suburban, and rural geographies, participated in a facilitated RM process delivered through focus groups and stakeholder discussion. Crash reports from department databases were reviewed to characterize the context, circumstances, hazards and risks of ESVCs. Identified risks were ranked using a risk matrix that considered risk likelihood and severity. Department-specific control measures were selected based on group consensus. Interviews, and focus groups were used to assess acceptability and utility of the RM process and perceived facilitators and barriers of implementation. Three to six RM meetings were conducted at each fire department. There were 7.4 crashes per 100 personnel in the urban department and 10.5 per 100 personnel in the suburban department; the rural department experienced zero crashes. All departments identified emergency response, backing, on scene struck by, driver distraction, vehicle/road visibility, and driver training as high or medium concerns. Additional high priority risks varied by department; the urban department prioritized turning and rear ending crashes; the suburban firefighters prioritized inclement weather/road environment and low visibility related crashes; and the rural volunteer fire department prioritized exiting station, vehicle failure, and inclement weather/road environment related incidents. Selected controls included new policies and standard operating procedures to reduce emergency response, cameras to enhance driver visibility while backing, and increased training frequency and enhanced training. The RM process was generally acceptable to department participants and considered useful. All departments reported that the focused and systematic analysis of crashes was particularly helpful. Implementation of controls was a commonly cited challenge. Proactive RM of ESVCs in three US fire departments was positively received and supported the establishment of interventions tailored to each department's needs and priorities.

Comparison of the characteristics of fire and non-fire households in the 2004-2005 survey of fire department-attended and unattended fires.

PubMed

Greene, Michael A

2012-06-01

Comparison of characteristics of fire with non-fire households to determine factors differentially associated with fire households (fire risk factors). National household telephone survey in 2004-2005 by the US Consumer Product Safety Commission with 916 fire households and a comparison sample of 2161 non-fire households. There were an estimated 7.4 million fires (96.6% not reported to fire departments) with 130,000 injuries. Bivariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess differences in household characteristics. Significant factors associated with fire households were renting vs. owning (OR 1.988 p<0.0001); household members under 18 year of age (OR 1.277 p<0.0001); lack of residents over 64 years old (OR 0.552 p=0.0007); and college or higher education (some college OR 1.444 p=0.0360, college graduate OR 1.873, p<0.0001, postgraduate OR 2.156 p<0.0001). Not significant were age of house; race; ethnicity; and income. Number of smokers was borderline significant (OR 1.132 p=0.1019) but was significant in the subset of fire households with non-cooking fires (OR 1.383 p=0.0011). Single family houses were associated with non-fire households in the bivariate analysis but not in the multivariate analyses. Renting, household members under 18 years old and smokers are risk factors for unattended fires, similar to the literature for fatal and injury fires. Differences included household members over 65 years old (associated with non-fire households), college/postgraduate education (associated with fire households) and lack of significance of income. Preventing cooking fires (64% of survey incidents), smoking prevention efforts and fire prevention education for families with young children have the potential for reducing unattended fires and injuries.

Working toward the elimination of residential fire deaths: the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Smoke Alarm Installation and Fire Safety Education (SAIFE) program.

PubMed

Ballesteros, Michael F; Jackson, Mark L; Martin, Maurice W

2005-01-01

To address residential fires and related injuries, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention funds state health departments to deliver a Smoke Alarm Installation and Fire Safety Education (SAIFE) program in high-risk homes in 16 states. This program involves recruiting local communities and community partners, hiring a local coordinator, canvassing neighborhood homes, installing long-lasting lithium-powered smoke alarms, and providing general fire safety education and 6-month follow-up to determine alarm functionality. Local fire departments are vital community partners in delivering this program. Since the program's inception, more than 212,000 smoke alarms have been installed in more than 126,000 high-risk homes. Additionally, approximately 610 lives have potentially been saved as a result of a program alarm that provided early warning to a dangerous fire incident.

Heightened fire risk in Indonesia in response to increasing temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, K.; Baethgen, W.; Verchot, L. V.; Gutierrez-Velez, V.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.

2016-12-01

In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as those of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated whether fires are impacted by temperature anomalies and if so, if the responses differ under contrasting precipitation regimes. Our findings show that when the July-October dry-season is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature anomalies is similar regardless of the sign of the anomalies. In contrast, in wet condition, fire risk increases sharply when the dry season is anomalously warm. We also present a characterization of near-term regional climate projections over the next few decades and the implications of continuing global temperature increase in future fire probability in Indonesia.

Determining critical groundwater level to prevent degraded peatland from severe peat fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putra, E. I.; Cochrane, M. A.; Vetrita, Y.; Graham, L.; Saharjo, B. H.

2018-05-01

Peat fires have been a severe recurrent problem for Indonesia, but droughts due to prolonged dry season aggravate burning conditions. To get a better understanding of this issue, we studied fire conditions in a portion of the ex-Mega Rice Project (MRP) area, Central Kalimantan. To examine fire season and hydrology factors affecting peat fires we analyzed daily TRMM data, Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies, and changing groundwater levels (GWL) from 300 dipwells. Our results quantify time-lags between the period of lowest precipitation and the lowest GWL; providing some ability to predict fire risk in advance of the lowest GWL. The rise of Nino 3.4 SST anomalies is significant risk factors for peat fire as they signify dry months which may yield large fire occurrences. GWL in 2011 was lower than in 2012, but fires were more frequent in 2012, indicating that low precipitation amounts in the wet season of 2011/2012 left the peat in a dry condition early in 2012. Most of the fires occurred in areas with GWL less than -30 cm, powerfully illustrating the importance of maintaining GWL at more than -10 cm, to prevent degraded peatlands from experiencing surface and deep peat fires.

Relative influence of wildfire on soil properties and erosion processes in different Mediterranean environments in NE Spain.

PubMed

Pardini, Giovanni; Gispert, Maria; Dunjó, Gemma

2004-07-26

Abandonment of terraced soils and increased brushland cover has increased wildfire occurrence to almost an annual rate in the Cap de Creus Peninsula, NE Pyrenees Range, Province of Girona, Spain. A wildfire occurred in August 2000 and affected an area of 6760 ha of shrubs and cork trees, whereas still cultivated plots were only slightly affected. Five stations of erosion measurements, corresponding to five different environments (from present cultivation to late abandonment) were destroyed by the passage of fire, and were promptly replaced to allow to monitoring post-fire effects on soil erosion. Selected soil properties were determined monthly before the fire and during 6 months after the fire at a monthly rate. Runoff and sediment yield together with dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in runoff water and organic carbon losses in eroded sediments (EOC) were evaluated throughout 2000. The last stage of abandonment, stands of cork trees, had the highest soil stability. Nevertheless, evidence of unfavourable soil conditions was detected at the shrub stage, when Cistus monspeliensis cover was the dominant opportunistic plant. This stage was considered to be a critical threshold leading either to degradation or regeneration processes according to fire frequency. A drastic change in soil properties, erosion and nutrient depletion occurred after the fire in all the environments. Statistics enabled to state that environments differed significantly in main soil properties. By statistically comparing the measured variables between the environments before and after the fire, DOC was found to be the soil parameter showing the highest significance between environments. Absolute values of erosion were low with respect to other Mediterranean environments although the shallow nature of these soils might deserve special attention because of a comparatively higher risk of degradation. Copyright 2004 Elsevier B.V.

Using a cluster randomized controlled trial to determine the effects of intervention of battery and hardwired smoke alarms in New South Wales, Australia: Home fire safety checks pilot program.

PubMed

Tannous, W Kathy; Whybro, Mark; Lewis, Chris; Ollerenshaw, Michael; Watson, Graeme; Broomhall, Susan; Agho, Kingsley E

2016-02-01

In 2014, Fire & Rescue New South Wales piloted the delivery of its home fire safety checks program (HFSC) aimed at engaging and educating targeted top "at risk" groups to prevent and prepare for fire. This pilot study aimed to assess the effectiveness of smoke alarms using a cluster randomized controlled trial. Survey questionnaires were distributed to the households that had participated in the HFSC program (intervention group). A separate survey questionnaire was distributed to the control group that was identified with similar characteristics to the intervention group in the same suburb. To adjust for potential clustering effects, generalized estimation equations with a log link were used. Multivariable analyses revealed that battery and hardwired smoking alarm usage increased by 9% and 3% respectively among the intervention group compared to the control group. Females were more likely to install battery smoke alarms than males. Respondents who possessed a certificate or diploma (AOR=1.31, 95% CI 1.00-1.70, P=0.047) and those who were educated up to years 8-12 (AOR=1.32, 95% CI 1.06-1.64, P=0.012) were significantly more likely to install battery smoke alarms than those who completed bachelor degrees. Conversely, holders of a certificate or diploma and people who were educated up to years 8-12 were 31% (AOR=0.69, 95% CI 0.52-0.93, P=0.014) and 24% (AOR=0.76, 95% CI 0.60-0.95, P=0.015) significantly less likely to install a hardwired smoke alarm compared to those who completed bachelor degrees. This pilot study provided evidence of the benefit of the HFSC in New South Wales. Fire safety intervention programs, like HFSC, need to be targeted to male adults with lower level of schooling even when they are aware of their risks. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Risk perceptions and behavioral context: U.S. Forest Service fire management professionals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, Jonathan G.; Carpenter, Edwin H.; Cortner, Hanna J.; Cleaves, David A.

1989-01-01

Fire managers from the U.S. Forest Service were surveyed to determine which decision factors most strongly influenced their fire‐risk decisions. Safety, the resources at risk, public opinion, and the reliability of information were important influences on these decisions. This research allowed direct comparison between fire managers’ perceptions of factor importance and how their fire‐risk decisions changed in response to those factors. These risk decisions were highly responsive to changes in context (an escaped wildfire decision versus a prescribed burning decision) as well as to changing factors. The results demonstrate the utility of using scenarios in risk research and the vital importance of context in studying risk‐taking behavior. Research which attempts to remove risk decisions from their real‐world context may well distort the nature of risk‐taking behavior.

Mapping regional patterns of large forest fires in Wildland-Urban Interface areas in Europe.

PubMed

Modugno, Sirio; Balzter, Heiko; Cole, Beth; Borrelli, Pasquale

2016-05-01

Over recent decades, Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) trends in many regions of Europe have reconfigured the landscape structures around many urban areas. In these areas, the proximity to landscape elements with high forest fuels has increased the fire risk to people and property. These Wildland-Urban Interface areas (WUI) can be defined as landscapes where anthropogenic urban land use and forest fuel mass come into contact. Mapping their extent is needed to prioritize fire risk control and inform local forest fire risk management strategies. This study proposes a method to map the extent and spatial patterns of the European WUI areas at continental scale. Using the European map of WUI areas, the hypothesis is tested that the distance from the nearest WUI area is related to the forest fire probability. Statistical relationships between the distance from the nearest WUI area, and large forest fire incidents from satellite remote sensing were subsequently modelled by logistic regression analysis. The first European scale map of the WUI extent and locations is presented. Country-specific positive and negative relationships of large fires and the proximity to the nearest WUI area are found. A regional-scale analysis shows a strong influence of the WUI zones on large fires in parts of the Mediterranean regions. Results indicate that the probability of large burned surfaces increases with diminishing WUI distance in touristic regions like Sardinia, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, or in regions with a strong peri-urban component as Catalunya, Comunidad de Madrid, Comunidad Valenciana. For the above regions, probability curves of large burned surfaces show statistical relationships (ROC value > 0.5) inside a 5000 m buffer of the nearest WUI. Wise land management can provide a valuable ecosystem service of fire risk reduction that is currently not explicitly included in ecosystem service valuations. The results re-emphasise the importance of including this ecosystem service in landscape valuations to account for the significant landscape function of reducing the risk of catastrophic large fires. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

In the Line of Fire.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kennedy, Mike

2001-01-01

Highlights the importance of using sprinkler systems in school residence halls to prevent fire fatalities. Understanding the risks involved, retrofitting schools to meet these risks, and realizing the need to extend safety education to off-campus housing are discussed. (GR)

Chapter 1: Fire and fuels reduction

Treesearch

B.M. Collins; S.L. Stephens

2012-01-01

Fire will continue to be a major management challenge in mixed-conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada. Fire is a fundamental ecosystem process in these forests that was largely eliminated in the 20th century. Fire reintroduction is a critical goal but is subject to constraints such as smoke production, risk of fire moving outside designated boundaries, the expanding...

Fire risk in east-side forests.

Treesearch

Valerie. Rapp

2002-01-01

Wildfire was a natural part of ecosystems in east-side Oregon and Washington before the 20th century. The fire regimes, or characteristic patterns of fire—how often, how hot, how big, what time of year—helped create and maintain various types of forests.Forests are dynamic, and fire interacts with other ecological processes. Fires, forests...

Depopulation of rural landscapes exacerbates fire activity in the western Amazon.

PubMed

Uriarte, María; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miquel; DeFries, Ruth S; Fernandes, Katia; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor; Baethgen, Walter E; Padoch, Christine

2012-12-26

Destructive fires in Amazonia have occurred in the past decade, leading to forest degradation, carbon emissions, impaired air quality, and property damage. Here, we couple climate, geospatial, and province-level census data, with farmer surveys to examine the climatic, demographic, and land use factors associated with fire frequency in the Peruvian Amazon from 2000 to 2010. Although our results corroborate previous findings elsewhere that drought and proximity to roads increase fire frequency, the province-scale analysis further identifies decreases in rural populations as an additional factor. Farmer survey data suggest that increased burn scar frequency and size reflect increased flammability of emptying rural landscapes and reduced capacity to control fire. With rural populations projected to decline, more frequent drought, and expansion of road infrastructure, fire risk is likely to increase in western Amazonia. Damage from fire can be reduced through warning systems that target high-risk locations, coordinated fire fighting efforts, and initiatives that provide options for people to remain in rural landscapes.

Depopulation of rural landscapes exacerbates fire activity in the western Amazon

PubMed Central

Uriarte, María; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miquel; DeFries, Ruth S.; Fernandes, Katia; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor; Baethgen, Walter E.; Padoch, Christine

2012-01-01

Destructive fires in Amazonia have occurred in the past decade, leading to forest degradation, carbon emissions, impaired air quality, and property damage. Here, we couple climate, geospatial, and province-level census data, with farmer surveys to examine the climatic, demographic, and land use factors associated with fire frequency in the Peruvian Amazon from 2000 to 2010. Although our results corroborate previous findings elsewhere that drought and proximity to roads increase fire frequency, the province-scale analysis further identifies decreases in rural populations as an additional factor. Farmer survey data suggest that increased burn scar frequency and size reflect increased flammability of emptying rural landscapes and reduced capacity to control fire. With rural populations projected to decline, more frequent drought, and expansion of road infrastructure, fire risk is likely to increase in western Amazonia. Damage from fire can be reduced through warning systems that target high-risk locations, coordinated fire fighting efforts, and initiatives that provide options for people to remain in rural landscapes. PMID:23236144

More stapler firings increase the risk of perioperative morbidity after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy.

PubMed

Major, Piotr; Wysocki, Michał; Pędziwiatr, Michał; Pisarska, Magdalena; Małczak, Piotr; Wierdak, Mateusz; Dembiński, Marcin; Migaczewski, Marcin; Rubinkiewicz, Mateusz; Budzyński, Andrzej

2018-03-01

Staple-line bleeding and leakage are the most common serious complications of laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. The relationship between multiple stapler firings and higher risk of postoperative complications is well defined in colorectal surgery but has not been addressed in bariatric procedures so far. Identification of new factors such as "the numbers of stapler firings used during laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG)" as a predictor for complications can lead to optimization of the patient care at bariatric centers. To determine the association between perioperative morbidity and the number of stapler firings during laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. This observational study was based on retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data in patients operated on for morbid obesity in a teaching hospital/tertiary referral center for general surgery. The patients who underwent LSG were analyzed in terms of the number of stapler firings used as a new potential risk predictor for postoperative complications after surgery, adjusting for other patient- and treatment-related factors. The study included 333 patients (209 women, 124 men, mean age: 40 ±11). During the first 30 days after surgery, complications were observed in 18 (5.41%) patients. Multivariate analysis showed that prolonging operative time increased morbidity (every minute, OR = 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00-1.02) and the complication rate increased with the number of stapler firings (every firing, OR = 1.91; 95% CI: 1.09-3.33; p = 0.023). Additional stapler firings above the usual number and a prolonged operation should alert a surgeon and the whole team about increased risk of postoperative complications.

Wildfire risk and hazard: procedures for the first approximation

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Alan A. Ager; Julie Gilbertson-Day

2010-01-01

This report was designed to meet three broad goals: (1) evaluate wildfire hazard on Federal lands; (2) develop information useful in prioritizing where fuels treatments and mitigation measures might be proposed to address significant fire hazard and risk; and (3) develop risk-based performance measures to document the effectiveness of fire management programs. The...

Effects of risk attitudes on extended attack fire management decisionmaking

Treesearch

Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán

2009-01-01

Fire management inherently involves the assessment and management of risk, and decision making under uncertainty. Although organizational standards and guides are an important determinant of how decision problems are structured and framed, decision makers may view risk-based decisions from a perspective that is unique to their background and experience. Previous...

THE EFFECTS OF COMPUTER-BASED FIRE SAFETY TRAINING ON THE KNOWLEDGE, ATTITUDES, AND PRACTICES OF CAREGIVERS

PubMed Central

Harrington, Susan S.; Walker, Bonnie L.

2010-01-01

Background Older adults in small residential board and care facilities are at a particularly high risk of fire death and injury because of their characteristics and environment. Methods The authors investigated computer-based instruction as a way to teach fire emergency planning to owners, operators, and staff of small residential board and care facilities. Participants (N = 59) were randomly assigned to a treatment or control group. Results Study participants who completed the training significantly improved their scores from pre- to posttest when compared to a control group. Participants indicated on the course evaluation that the computers were easy to use for training (97%) and that they would like to use computers for future training courses (97%). Conclusions This study demonstrates the potential for using interactive computer-based training as a viable alternative to instructor-led training to meet the fire safety training needs of owners, operators, and staff of small board and care facilities for the elderly. PMID:19263929

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E

2013-04-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails the interaction of multiple components, including integrating wildfire simulation outputs with geospatial identification of HVRAs and the characterization of fire effects to HVRAs. We present an integrated and systematic risk assessment framework that entails 3 primary analytical components: 1) stochastic wildfire simulation and burn probability modeling to characterize wildfire hazard, 2) expert-based modeling to characterize fire effects, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis to characterize preference structures across at-risk HVRAs. We demonstrate application of this framework for a wildfire risk assessment performed on the Little Belts Assessment Area within the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, United States. We devote particular attention to our approach to eliciting and encapsulating expert judgment, in which we: 1) adhered to a structured process for using expert judgment in ecological risk assessment, 2) used as our expert base local resource scientists and fire/fuels specialists who have a direct connection to the specific landscape and HVRAs in question, and 3) introduced multivariate response functions to characterize fire effects to HVRAs that consider biophysical variables beyond fire behavior. We anticipate that this work will further the state of wildfire risk science and will lead to additional application of risk assessment to inform land management planning. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Patch to landscape patterns in post fire recruitment of a serotinous conifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ne'eman, Gidi; Fotheringham, C.J.; Keeley, J.E.

1999-01-01

Obligate seeding species are highly specialized to fire disturbance and many conifers such as cypress, which are adapted to high intensity stand-replacing fires, have canopy seed banks stored in serotinous cones. Resilience of these trees to fire disturbance is a function of disturbance frequency and one focus of this study was to determine the effect of patch age on postfire recruitment. A second focus was to determine the extent to which fire induced a landscape level change in the location of the forest boundary. Prior to a fire in 1994, a large Cupressus sargentii forest was a mosaic landscape of different aged patches of nearly pure cypress bordered by chaparral. Patches less than 60 years of age were relatively dense with roughly one tree every 1-2 m2 but older patches had thinned to one tree every 3-15 m2. Older trees had substantially greater canopy cone crops but the stand level seed bank size was not significantly correlated with stand age. Fire-dependent obligate seeding species are sensitive to fire return interval because of potential changes in the size of seed banks - facing both a potential 'immaturity risk' and a 'senescence risk'. At our site, C. sargentii regeneration was substantial in stands as young as 20 years, suggesting that fire return interval would need to be shorter than this to pose any significant risk. Reduced seedling recruitment in stands nearly 100 years of age may indicate risk from senescence is greater, however, even the lowest density seedling recruitment was many times greater than the density of mature forests - thus this cypress would appear to be resilient to a wide range of fire return intervals. Changes in landscape patterning of forest and chaparral are unlikely except after fire. Factors that inhibit tree establishment within the shrubland, as well as factors that affect shrub establishment within the forest border likely affect the 'permeability' of this ecotone. After the 1994 fire this boundary appeared to be stable in that cypress recruited best within the shadow of burned canopies and cypress were weak invaders of adjacent shrublands.

Risk for large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtonen, I.; Venäläinen, A.; Kämäräinen, M.; Peltola, H.; Gregow, H.

2015-08-01

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on the number of large forest fires (over 10 ha fires) and burned area in Finland. For this purpose, we utilized a strong relationship between fire occurrence and the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) during 1996-2014. We used daily data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. Our results also reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase in forest-fire danger. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is more important cause of fires.

Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia.

PubMed

Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

2016-01-01

Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for 'extensive cattle ranching', 'agro-silvopastoral use' and 'intensive cattle ranching and agriculture'. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land management decisions in the Chiquitania and other tropical forest landscapes to better anticipate and manage large wildfires in the future.

Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia

PubMed Central

Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O.; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

2016-01-01

Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for ‘extensive cattle ranching’, ‘agro-silvopastoral use’ and ‘intensive cattle ranching and agriculture’. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land management decisions in the Chiquitania and other tropical forest landscapes to better anticipate and manage large wildfires in the future. PMID:27632528

A wildfire risk modeling system for evaluating landscape fuel treatment strategies

Treesearch

Alan Ager; Mark Finney; Andrew McMahan

2006-01-01

Despite a wealth of literature and models concerning wildfire risk, field units in Federal land management agencies lack a clear framework and operational tools to measure how risk might change from proposed fuel treatments. In an actuarial context, risk is defined as the expected value change from a fire, calculated as the product of (1) probability of a fire at a...

A review of recent advances in risk analysis for wildfire management

Treesearch

Carol Miller; Alan A. Ager

2012-01-01

Risk analysis evolved out of the need to make decisions concerning highly stochastic events, and is well suited to analyze the timing, location and potential effects of wildfires. Over the past 10 years, the application of risk analysis to wildland fire management has seen steady growth with new risk-based analytical tools that support a wide range of fire and fuels...

Spatially-Correlated Risk in Nature Reserve Site Selection

PubMed Central

Albers, Heidi J.; Busby, Gwenlyn M.; Hamaide, Bertrand; Ando, Amy W.; Polasky, Stephen

2016-01-01

Establishing nature reserves protects species from land cover conversion and the resulting loss of habitat. Even within a reserve, however, many factors such as fires and defoliating insects still threaten habitat and the survival of species. To address the risk to species survival after reserve establishment, reserve networks can be created that allow some redundancy of species coverage to maximize the expected number of species that survive in the presence of threats. In some regions, however, the threats to species within a reserve may be spatially correlated. As examples, fires, diseases, and pest infestations can spread from a starting point and threaten neighboring parcels’ habitats, in addition to damage caused at the initial location. This paper develops a reserve site selection optimization framework that compares the optimal reserve networks in cases where risks do and do not reflect spatial correlation. By exploring the impact of spatially-correlated risk on reserve networks on a stylized landscape and on an Oregon landscape, this analysis demonstrates an appropriate and feasible method for incorporating such post-reserve establishment risks in the reserve site selection literature as an additional tool to be further developed for future conservation planning. PMID:26789127

Risk analysis procedure for post-wildfire natural hazards in British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Peter

2010-05-01

Following a severe wildfire season in 2003, and several subsequent damaging debris flow and flood events, the British Columbia Forest Service developed a procedure for analysing risks to public safety and infrastructure from such events. At the same time, the Forest Service undertook a research program to determine the extent of post-wildfire hazards, and examine the hydrologic and geomorphic processes contributing to the hazards. The risk analysis procedure follows the Canadian Standards Association decision-making framework for risk management (which in turn is based on international standards). This has several steps: identification of risk, risk analysis and estimation, evaluation of risk tolerability, developing control or mitigation strategies, and acting on these strategies. The Forest Service procedure deals only with the first two steps. The results are passed on to authorities such as the Provincial Emergency Program and local government, who are responsible for evaluating risks, warning residents, and applying mitigation strategies if appropriate. The objective of the procedure is to identify and analyse risks to public safety and infrastructure. The procedure is loosely based on the BAER (burned area emergency response) program in the USA, with some important differences. Our procedure focuses on identifying risks and warning affected parties, not on mitigation activities such as broadcast erosion control measures. Partly this is due to limited staff and financial resources. Also, our procedure is not multi-agency, but is limited to wildfires on provincial forest land; in British Columbia about 95% of forest land is in the publicly-owned provincial forest. Each fire season, wildfires are screened by size and proximity to values at risk such as populated areas. For selected fires, when the fire is largely contained, the procedure begins with an aerial reconnaissance of the fire, and photography with a hand-held camera, which can be used to make a preliminary map of vegetation burn severity if desired. The next steps include mapping catchment boundaries, field traverses to collect data on soil burn severity and water repellency, identification of unstable hillslopes and channels, and inspection of values at risk from hazards such as debris flows or flooding. BARC (burned area reflectance classification) maps based on satellite imagery are prepared for some fires, although these are typically not available for several weeks. Our objective is to make a preliminary risk analysis report available about two weeks after the fire is contained. If high risks to public safety or infrastructure are identified, the risk analysis reports may make recommendations for mitigation measures to be considered; however, acting on these recommendations is the responsibility of local land managers, local government, or landowners. Mitigation measures for some fires have included engineering treatments to reduce the hydrologic impact of logging roads, protective structures such as dykes or berms, and straw mulching to reduce runoff and erosion on severely burned areas. The Terrace Mountain Fire, with burned 9000 hectares in the Okanagan Valley in 2009, is used as an example of the application of the procedure.

Assessment of dermal hazard from acid burns with fire retardant garments in a full-size simulation of an engulfment flash fire.

PubMed

Mackay, Christopher E; Vivanco, Stephanie N; Yeboah, George; Vercellone, Jeff

2016-09-01

There have been concerns that fire-derived acid gases could aggravate thermal burns for individuals wearing synthetic flame retardant garments. A comparative risk assessment was performed on three commercial flame retardant materials with regard to relative hazards associated with acidic combustion gases to skin during a full engulfment flash fire event. The tests were performed in accordance with ASTM F1930 and ISO 13506: Standard Test Method for Evaluation of Flame Resistant Clothing for Protection against Fire Simulations Using an Instrumented Manikin. Three fire retardant textiles were tested: an FR treated cotton/nylon blend, a low Protex(®) modacrylic blend, and a medium Protex(®) modacrylic blend. The materials, in the form of whole body coveralls, were subjected to propane-fired flash conditions of 84kW/m(2) in a full sized simulator for a duration of either 3 or 4s. Ion traps consisting of wetted sodium carbonate-impregnated cellulose in Teflon holders were placed on the chest and back both above and under the standard undergarments. The ion traps remained in position from the time of ignition until 5min post ignition. Results indicated that acid deposition did increase with modacrylic content from 0.9μmol/cm(2) for the cotton/nylon, to 12μmol/cm(2) for the medium modacrylic blend. The source of the acidity was dominated by hydrogen chloride. Discoloration was inversely proportional to the amount of acid collected on the traps. A risk assessment was performed on the potential adverse impact of acid gases on both the skin and open wounds. The results indicated that the deposition and dissolution of the acid gases in surficial fluid media (perspiration and blood plasma) resulted in an increase in acidity, but not sufficient to induce irritation/skin corrosion or to cause necrosis in open third degree burns. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Wildfire risk assessment in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface of Greece.

PubMed

Mitsopoulos, Ioannis; Mallinis, Giorgos; Arianoutsou, Margarita

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source-sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey's significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.

Wildfire Risk Assessment in a Typical Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interface of Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitsopoulos, Ioannis; Mallinis, Giorgos; Arianoutsou, Margarita

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source-sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey's significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.

Historical fire regimes, reconstructed from land-survey data, led to complexity and fluctuation in sagebrush landscapes.

PubMed

Bukowski, Beth E; Baker, William L

2013-04-01

Sagebrush landscapes provide habitat for Sage-Grouse and other sagebrush obligates, yet historical fire regimes and the structure of historical sagebrush landscapes are poorly known, hampering ecological restoration and management. To remedy this, General Land Office Survey (GLO) survey notes were used to reconstruct over two million hectares of historical vegetation for four sagebrush-dominated (Artemisia spp.) study areas in the western United States. Reconstructed vegetation was analyzed for fire indicators used to identify historical fires and reconstruct historical fire regimes. Historical fire-size distributions were inverse-J shaped, and one fire > 100 000 ha was identified. Historical fire rotations were estimated at 171-342 years for Wyoming big sagebrush (A. tridentata ssp. wyomingensis) and 137-217 years for mountain big sagebrush (A. tridentata ssp. vaseyana). Historical fire and patch sizes were significantly larger in Wyoming big sagebrush than mountain big sagebrush, and historical fire rotations were significantly longer in Wyoming big sagebrush than mountain big sagebrush. Historical fire rotations in Wyoming were longer than those in other study areas. Fine-scale mosaics of burned and unburned area and larger unburned inclusions within fire perimeters were less common than in modern fires. Historical sagebrush landscapes were dominated by large, contiguous areas of sagebrush, though large grass-dominated areas and finer-scale mosaics of grass and sagebrush were also present in smaller amounts. Variation in sagebrush density was a common source of patchiness, and areas classified as "dense" made up 24.5% of total sagebrush area, compared to 16.3% for "scattered" sagebrush. Results suggest significant differences in historical and modern fire regimes. Modern fire rotations in Wyoming big sagebrush are shorter than historical fire rotations. Results also suggest that historical sagebrush landscapes would have fluctuated, because of infrequent episodes of large fires and long periods of recovery and maturity. Due to fragmentation of sagebrush landscapes, the large, contiguous expanses of sagebrush that dominated historically are most at risk and in need of conservation, including both dense and scattered sagebrush. Fire suppression in Wyoming big sagebrush may also be advisable, as modern fire rotations are shorter than their historical counterparts.

Analysis of zone of vulnurability and impact of forest fires in forest ecosystems in north algeria by susing remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zegrar, Ahmed

2010-05-01

The Forest in steppe present ecological diversity, and seen climatic unfavourable conditions in zone and impact of forest fires; we notes deterioration of physical environment particularly, deterioration of natural forest. This deterioration of forests provokes an unbalance of environment witch provokes a process of deterioration advanced in the ultimate stadium is desertification. By elsewhere, where climatic conditions are favourable, the fire is an ecological and acted agent like integral part of evolution of the ecosystems, the specific regeneration of plants are influenced greatly by the regime of fire (season of fire, intensity, interval), witch leads to the recuperation of the vegetation of meadow- fire. In this survey we used the pictures ALSAT-1 for detection of zones with risk of forest fire and their impact on the naturals forests in region named TLEMCEN in the north west of Algeria. A thematic detailed analysis of forests well attended ecosystems some processing on the picture ALSAT-1, we allowed to identify and classifying the forests in there opinion components flowers. We identified ampleness of fire on this zone also. Some parameters as the slope, the proximity to the road and the forests formations were studied in the goal of determining the zones to risk of forest fire. A crossing of diaper of information in a GIS according to a very determined logic allowed classifying the zones in degree of risk of fire in semi arid zone witch forest zone not encouraging the regeneration but permitting the installation of cash of steppe which encourages the desertification.

Forest fires impact in semi arid lands in Algeria, analysis and followed of desertification by using remote sensing and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zegrar, Ahmed

The Forest in steppe present ecological diversity, and seen climatic unfavourable conditions in zone and impact of forest fires; we notes deterioration of physical environment particularly, deterioration of natural forest. This deterioration of forests provokes an unbalance of environment witch provokes a process of deterioration advanced in the ultimate stadium is desertification. By elsewhere, where climatic conditions are favourable, the fire is an ecological and acted agent like integral part of evolution of the ecosystems, the specific regeneration of plants are influenced greatly by the regime of fire (season of fire, intensity, interval), who leads to the recuperation of the vegetation of meadow- fire. In this survey we used the pictures ALSAT-1 for detection of zones with risk of forest fire and their impact on the naturals forests in region of Tlemcen. A thematic detailed analysis of forests well attended ecosystems some processing on the picture ALSAT-1, we allowed to identify and classifying the forests in there opinion components flowers. we identified ampleness of fire on this zone also. Some parameters as the slope, the proximity to the road and the forests formations were studied in the goal of determining the zones to risk of forest fire. A crossing of diaper of information in a SIG according to a very determined logic allowed to classify the zones in degree of risk of fire in a middle arid in a forest zone not encouraging the regeneration on the other hand permitting the installation of cash of steppe which encourages the desertification.

Simulating wildfire spread behavior between two NASA Active Fire data timeframes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, B.; Hodza, P.; Xu, C.; Minckley, T. A.

2017-12-01

Although NASA's Active Fire dataset is considered valuable in mapping the spatial distribution and extent of wildfires across the world, the data is only available at approximately 12-hour time intervals, creating uncertainties and risks associated with fire spread and behavior between the two Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Satellite (VIIRS) data collection timeframes. Our study seeks to close the information gap for the United States by using the latest Active Fire data collected for instance around 0130 hours as an ignition source and critical inputs to a wildfire model by uniquely incorporating forecasted and real-time weather conditions for predicting fire perimeter at the next 12 hour reporting time (i.e. around 1330 hours). The model ingests highly dynamic variables such as fuel moisture, temperature, relative humidity, wind among others, and prompts a Monte Carlo simulation exercise that uses a varying range of possible values for evaluating all possible wildfire behaviors. The Monte Carlo simulation implemented in this model provides a measure of the relative wildfire risk levels at various locations based on the number of times those sites are intersected by simulated fire perimeters. Model calibration is achieved using data at next reporting time (i.e. after 12 hours) to enhance the predictive quality at further time steps. While initial results indicate that the calibrated model can predict the overall geometry and direction of wildland fire spread, the model seems to over-predict the sizes of most fire perimeters possibly due to unaccounted fire suppression activities. Nonetheless, the results of this study show great promise in aiding wildland fire tracking, fighting and risk management.

Investigating the effect of banning non-reduced ignition propensity cigarettes on fatal residential fires in Sweden.

PubMed

Bonander, Carl M; Jonsson, Anders P; Nilson, Finn T

2016-04-01

Annually, 100 people die as a result of residential fires in Sweden and almost a third of the fatal fires are known to be caused by smoking. In an attempt to reduce the occurrence of these events, reduced ignition propensity (RIP) cigarettes have been developed. They are designed to reduce the risk of fire by preventing the cigarette from burning through the full length when left unattended. In November 2011, a ban was introduced, forbidding the production and sale of all non-RIP cigarettes in all member states of the European Union, including Sweden. Monthly data on all recorded residential fires and associated fatalities in Sweden from January 2000 to December 2013 were analyzed using an interrupted time series design. The effect of the intervention [in relative risk (RR)] was quantified using generalised additive models for location, shape and scale. There were no statistically significant intervention effects on residential fires (RR 0.95 [95% CI: 0.89-1.01]), fatal residential fires (RR 0.99 [95% CI: 0.80-1.23]), residential fires where smoking was a known cause (RR 1.10 [95% CI: 0.95-1.28]) or fatal residential fires where smoking was a known cause (RR 0.92 [95% CI: 0.63-1.35]). No evidence of an effect of the ban on all non-RIP cigarettes on the risk of residential fires in Sweden was found. The results may not be generalisable to other countries. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Wyoming: Jackson Hole

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2014-05-15

... Park and Bridger-Teton National Forest Interagency Fire Management Office announced a high risk for the area. The Green Knoll blaze is ... July 27, 2001 - Green Knoll forest fire. project:  MISR category:  gallery Fires date:  ...

Strategic oil reserves catch fire too

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crull, A.W.

The Federal strategic oil storage site at West Hackberry Dome in Louisiana caught fire in spite of DOE assurances that this is the safest way to store oil. Most of the oil was recovered, although confusion at the site aggravated the problem in getting the fire under control. DOE called the incident an industrial accident, but has not acknowledged the risks involved in all aspects of petroleum drilling or handling -- and the drastic limits of personnel able to handle resulting accidents. Inteviews with Boots and Coots, a team of fire fighters in Houston, provided the author with details ofmore » oil fires and ways to deal with them. The oil fire fighters point out that all energy source development and storage involves some risk and that steps should be taken to train personnel to deal with the negative aspects of petroleum.« less

Developing an assessment of fire-setting to guide treatment in secure settings: the St Andrew's Fire and Arson Risk Instrument (SAFARI).

PubMed

Long, Clive G; Banyard, Ellen; Fulton, Barbara; Hollin, Clive R

2014-09-01

Arson and fire-setting are highly prevalent among patients in secure psychiatric settings but there is an absence of valid and reliable assessment instruments and no evidence of a significant approach to intervention. To develop a semi-structured interview assessment specifically for fire-setting to augment structured assessments of risk and need. The extant literature was used to frame interview questions relating to the antecedents, behaviour and consequences necessary to formulate a functional analysis. Questions also covered readiness to change, fire-setting self-efficacy, the probability of future fire-setting, barriers to change, and understanding of fire-setting behaviour. The assessment concludes with indications for assessment and a treatment action plan. The inventory was piloted with a sample of women in secure care and was assessed for comprehensibility, reliability and validity. Staff rated the St Andrews Fire and Risk Instrument (SAFARI) as acceptable to patients and easy to administer. SAFARI was found to be comprehensible by over 95% of the general population, to have good acceptance, high internal reliability, substantial test-retest reliability and validity. SAFARI helps to provide a clear explanation of fire-setting in terms of the complex interplay of antecedents and consequences and facilitates the design of an individually tailored treatment programme in sympathy with a cognitive-behavioural approach. Further studies are needed to verify the reliability and validity of SAFARI with male populations and across settings.

Surgical fires in laser laryngeal surgery: are we safe enough?

PubMed

Roy, Soham; Smith, Lee P

2015-01-01

Laser surgery of the larynx and airway remains high risk for the formation of operating room fire. Traditional methods of fire prevention have included use of "laser safe" tubes, inflation of a protective cuff with saline, and wet pledgets to protect the endotracheal tube from laser strikes. We tested a mechanical model of laser laryngeal surgery to evaluate the fire risk. Mechanical model. Laboratory. An intubation mannequin was positioned for suspension microlaryngoscopy. A Laser-Shield II cuffed endotracheal tube was placed through the larynx and the cuff inflated using saline. Wet pledgets covered the inflated cuff. A CO2 laser created an inadvertent cuff strike at varying oxygen concentrations. Risk reduction measures were implemented to discern any notable change in the outcome after fire. At 100% FiO2 an immediate fire with sustained flame was created and at 40% FiO2 a near immediate sustained flame was created. At 29% FiO2, a small nonsustained flame was noted. At room air, no fire was created. There was no discernible difference in the severity of laryngeal damage after the fire occurred whether the tube was immediately pulled from the mannequin or if saline was poured down the airway as a first response. While "laser safe" tubes provide a layer of protection against fires, they are not fire proof. Inadvertent cuff perforation may result in fire formation in low-level oxygen enriched environments. Placement of wet pledgets do not provide absolute protection. Endotracheal tube (ETT) cuffs should be placed distally well away from an inadvertent laser strike while maintaining the minimum supplemental oxygen necessary. © American Academy of Otolaryngology—Head and Neck Surgery Foundation 2014.

Integrating climatic and fuels information into National Fire Risk Decision Support Tools

Treesearch

W. Cooke; V. Anantharaj; C. Wax; J. Choi; K. Grala; M. Jolly; G.P. Dixon; J. Dyer; D.L. Evans; G.B. Goodrich

2007-01-01

The Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) is a component of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service Decision Support Systems (DSS) that support fire potential modeling. Fire potential models for Mississippi and for Eastern fire environments have been developed as part of a National Aeronautic and Space Agency-funded study aimed at demonstrating the utility...

Towards improving wildland firefighter situational awareness through daily fire behaviour risk assessments in the US Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin

Treesearch

W. Matt Jolly; Patrick H. Freeborn

2017-01-01

Wildland firefighters must assess potential fire behaviour in order to develop appropriate strategies and tactics that will safely meet objectives. Fire danger indices integrate surface weather conditions to quantify potential variations in fire spread rates and intensities and therefore should closely relate to observed fire behaviour. These indices could better...

Presettlement fire regime and vegetation mapping in Southeastern Coastal Plain forest ecosystems

Treesearch

Andrew D. Bailey; Robert Mickler; Cecil Frost

2007-01-01

Fire-adapted forest ecosystems make up 95 percent of the historic Coastal Plain vegetation types in the Southeastern United States. Fire suppression over the last century has altered the species composition of these ecosystems, increased fuel loads, and increased wildfire risk. Prescribed fire is one management tool used to reduce fuel loading and restore fire-adapted...

Act Quickly! Seconds Count! Second Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ogden, Bob; Hayter, Roy, Ed.

This booklet is designed to help hotel employees know what to do if a fire breaks out in the hotel. It also gives hints and suggestions that will help employees to reduce the risk of a fire occurring. Topics are as follows: an employee's responsibility if a fire breaks out; procedures to follow in the event of fire; mapping fire exits and escape…

Info-Gap Decision Theory for Assessing the Management of Catchments for Timber Production and Urban Water Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarthy, Michael A.; Lindenmayer, David B.

2007-04-01

While previous studies have examined how forest management is influenced by the risk of fire, they rely on probabilistic estimates of the occurrence and impacts of fire. However, nonprobabilistic approaches are required for assessing the importance of fire risk when data are poor but risks are appreciable. We explore impacts of fire risk on forest management using as a case study a water catchment in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) (southeastern Australia). In this forested area, urban water supply and timber yields from exotic plantations are potential joint but also competing land uses. Our analyses were stimulated by extensive wildfires in early 2003 that burned much of the existing exotic pine plantation estate in the water catchment and the resulting need to explore the relative economic benefits of revegetating the catchment with exotic plantations or native vegetation. The current mean fire interval in the ACT is approximately 40 years, making the establishment of a pine plantation economically marginal at a 4% discount rate. However, the relative impact on water yield of revegetation with native species and pines is very uncertain, as is the risk of fire under climate change. We use info-gap decision theory to account for these nonprobabilistic sources of uncertainty, demonstrating that the decision that is most robust to uncertainty is highly sensitive to the cost of native revegetation. If costs of native revegetation are sufficiently small, this option is more robust to uncertainty than revegetation with a commercial pine plantation.

Info-gap decision theory for assessing the management of catchments for timber production and urban water supply.

PubMed

McCarthy, Michael A; Lindenmayer, David B

2007-04-01

While previous studies have examined how forest management is influenced by the risk of fire, they rely on probabilistic estimates of the occurrence and impacts of fire. However, nonprobabilistic approaches are required for assessing the importance of fire risk when data are poor but risks are appreciable. We explore impacts of fire risk on forest management using as a case study a water catchment in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) (southeastern Australia). In this forested area, urban water supply and timber yields from exotic plantations are potential joint but also competing land uses. Our analyses were stimulated by extensive wildfires in early 2003 that burned much of the existing exotic pine plantation estate in the water catchment and the resulting need to explore the relative economic benefits of revegetating the catchment with exotic plantations or native vegetation. The current mean fire interval in the ACT is approximately 40 years, making the establishment of a pine plantation economically marginal at a 4% discount rate. However, the relative impact on water yield of revegetation with native species and pines is very uncertain, as is the risk of fire under climate change. We use info-gap decision theory to account for these nonprobabilistic sources of uncertainty, demonstrating that the decision that is most robust to uncertainty is highly sensitive to the cost of native revegetation. If costs of native revegetation are sufficiently small, this option is more robust to uncertainty than revegetation with a commercial pine plantation.

Survival Mediterranean Style: Lifestyle Changes to Improve the Health of the US Fire Service

PubMed Central

Korre, Maria; Sotos-Prieto, Mercedes; Kales, Stefanos N.

2017-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) causes almost half of all on-duty deaths in US firefighters and is an important and costly cause of morbidity. In addition, cancer is a growing health concern in this population. Obesity and obesity-associated, cardiometabolic risk clustering are major, modifiable risk factors for fire service CVD and cancer risk. The Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) is proven effective in primary and secondary CVD prevention. It is also associated with a decreased risk of cancer and other chronic diseases. Moreover, it can be adapted into successful workplace interventions. Emerging data from our group regarding the US Fire Service show that greater compliance with the MedDiet is associated with improved CVD risk profiles and less weight gain among career firefighters. Moreover, the fact that career firefighters take a considerable number of meals communally on the job also represents an excellent opportunity for a workplace Mediterranean Diet Nutritional Intervention (MDNI). The devastating effects of obesity, CVD, and cancer on the US fire service are recognized, but currently few effective preventive programs exist. The consistently positive health benefits from following a MedDiet and promising preliminary data in the fire service justify translational research to determine the most effective means of delivering MDNIs to US firefighters. Therefore, a high priority should be assigned to efforts, which can help further disseminate and implement our program of novel behavior change strategies, “Survival Mediterranean Style,” throughout the US fire service and eventually to other occupations. PMID:29326915

Survival Mediterranean Style: Lifestyle Changes to Improve the Health of the US Fire Service.

PubMed

Korre, Maria; Sotos-Prieto, Mercedes; Kales, Stefanos N

2017-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) causes almost half of all on-duty deaths in US firefighters and is an important and costly cause of morbidity. In addition, cancer is a growing health concern in this population. Obesity and obesity-associated, cardiometabolic risk clustering are major, modifiable risk factors for fire service CVD and cancer risk. The Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) is proven effective in primary and secondary CVD prevention. It is also associated with a decreased risk of cancer and other chronic diseases. Moreover, it can be adapted into successful workplace interventions. Emerging data from our group regarding the US Fire Service show that greater compliance with the MedDiet is associated with improved CVD risk profiles and less weight gain among career firefighters. Moreover, the fact that career firefighters take a considerable number of meals communally on the job also represents an excellent opportunity for a workplace Mediterranean Diet Nutritional Intervention (MDNI). The devastating effects of obesity, CVD, and cancer on the US fire service are recognized, but currently few effective preventive programs exist. The consistently positive health benefits from following a MedDiet and promising preliminary data in the fire service justify translational research to determine the most effective means of delivering MDNIs to US firefighters. Therefore, a high priority should be assigned to efforts, which can help further disseminate and implement our program of novel behavior change strategies, "Survival Mediterranean Style," throughout the US fire service and eventually to other occupations.

Flammability of topical preparations and surgical dressings in cutaneous and laser surgery: a controlled simulation study.

PubMed

Arefiev, Katharine; Warycha, Melanie; Whiting, Dennis; Alam, Murad

2012-10-01

Surgical fires are a rare, but serious complication of dermatologic procedures involving electrosurgical and laser devices. Given the lack of data regarding basic fire safety principles, many dermatologists remain unaware of this potential risk. We evaluated the flammability of topical preparations and surgical drapes commonly encountered in the immediate operative field during cutaneous and laser surgery. Surgical dressings, drapes, and pork belly skin were examined for fire risk upon exposure to isopropyl alcohol, chlorhexidine gluconate, and aluminum chloride under dry, saturated, and damp conditions. Both electrosurgery and a carbon-dioxide laser were used as ignition sources. At least some char was observed in 86 of 126 simulated conditions (68%). Flames occurred in 2 test conditions: dry underpad drapes and cotton balls exposed to the carbon-dioxide laser. In general, drapes and dressings dampened or saturated with isopropyl alcohol failed to ignite with electrofulguration or electrodessication, although sparks and moderate char developed on pork belly skin and the underpad drape. Materials dampened or saturated with chlorhexidine gluconate, which contains isopropyl alcohol, generated less smoke and char compared with materials exposed to aluminum chloride, which does not contain alcohol. Future studies may assess the flammability of materials in the setting of oxygen supplementation. In common cutaneous surgical environments, electrosurgery or ablative laser may lead to char and rarely to fire. Char may be seen in up to two thirds of simulated conditions, and in a minute proportion of conditions, fire is observed. Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Health outcomes associated with smoke exposure in Albuquerque, New Mexico, during the 2011 Wallow fire.

PubMed

Resnick, Adam; Woods, Brian; Krapfl, Heidi; Toth, Barbara

2015-01-01

This study examined the association between PM2.5 levels and emergency department (ED) visits for selected health outcomes in Albuquerque, New Mexico, during the Wallow fire of 2011. Measurements of 24-hour average concentrations of PM2.5 obtained from the City of Albuquerque were used to calculate wildfire smoke exposure in Albuquerque. Daily ED visits were collected by the New Mexico Department of Health from individual nonfederal licensed facilities in the Albuquerque area. Poisson regression was used to assess the relationship between ED visits for selected respiratory and cardiovascular conditions and varying levels of PM2.5 exposure. Albuquerque, New Mexico. Patients visiting an ED for select conditions before, during, and after the wildfire. Relative increase in ED visits for selected conditions during the wildfire period. Analysis of PM2.5 exposure data and ED visits in Albuquerque before and during the Wallow fire indicated that compared with the period prior to the fire, there was an increased risk of ED visits for some respiratory and cardiovascular conditions during heavy smoke conditions, and risk varied by age and sex. The population of 65+ years was especially at risk for increased ED visits. There was a significantly increased risk of ED visits among the 65+ population for asthma (RR [relative rate] = 1.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03-2.93) and for diseases of the veins, lymphatic and circulatory system (RR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.00-2.43). For the age group of 20 to 64 years, there was a statistically significant increase in ED visits for diseases of pulmonary circulation (RR = 2.64, 95% CI = 1.42-4.9) and for cerebrovascular disease (RR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.03-2.77). High levels of PM2.5 exposure due to the Wallow fire were associated with increased ED visits for respiratory and cardiovascular conditions in Albuquerque. More effective and targeted preventive measures are necessary to reduce morbidity rates associated with wildfire smoke exposure among vulnerable populations.

Fire and the endangered Indiana bat

Treesearch

Matthew B. Dickinson; Michael J. Lacki; Daniel R. Cox

2009-01-01

Fire and Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) have coexisted for millennia in the central hardwoods region, yet past declines in populations of this endangered species, and the imperative of fire use in oak silviculture and ecosystem conservation, call for an analysis of both the risks and opportunities associated with using fires on landscapes in...

36 CFR 294.21 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...) Has a geographic feature that aids in creating an effective fire break, such as a road or a ridge top; or (3) Is in condition class 3 as defined by HFRA. Fire hazard and risk: The fuel conditions on the landscape. Fire occurrence: The probability of wildfire ignition based on historic fire occurrence records...

36 CFR 294.21 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

...) Has a geographic feature that aids in creating an effective fire break, such as a road or a ridge top; or (3) Is in condition class 3 as defined by HFRA. Fire hazard and risk: The fuel conditions on the landscape. Fire occurrence: The probability of wildfire ignition based on historic fire occurrence records...

36 CFR 294.21 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

...) Has a geographic feature that aids in creating an effective fire break, such as a road or a ridge top; or (3) Is in condition class 3 as defined by HFRA. Fire hazard and risk: The fuel conditions on the landscape. Fire occurrence: The probability of wildfire ignition based on historic fire occurrence records...

Risk of commercial truck fires in the United States : an exploratory data analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-06-29

Large trucks are involved in only 8 percent of fatal crashes per year, but 17 percent of fatal fires. The scope of the current body of research is limited. Studies have treated truck fires generally as a subset of vehicle fires or in their own right ...

Detection, Emission Estimation and Risk Prediction of Forest Fires in China Using Satellite Sensors and Simulation Models in the Past Three Decades—An Overview

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jia-Hua; Yao, Feng-Mei; Liu, Cheng; Yang, Li-Min; Boken, Vijendra K.

2011-01-01

Forest fires have major impact on ecosystems and greatly impact the amount of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. This paper presents an overview in the forest fire detection, emission estimation, and fire risk prediction in China using satellite imagery, climate data, and various simulation models over the past three decades. Since the 1980s, remotely-sensed data acquired by many satellites, such as NOAA/AVHRR, FY-series, MODIS, CBERS, and ENVISAT, have been widely utilized for detecting forest fire hot spots and burned areas in China. Some developed algorithms have been utilized for detecting the forest fire hot spots at a sub-pixel level. With respect to modeling the forest burning emission, a remote sensing data-driven Net Primary productivity (NPP) estimation model was developed for estimating forest biomass and fuel. In order to improve the forest fire risk modeling in China, real-time meteorological data, such as surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, have been used as the model input for improving prediction of forest fire occurrence and its behavior. Shortwave infrared (SWIR) and near infrared (NIR) channels of satellite sensors have been employed for detecting live fuel moisture content (FMC), and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was used for evaluating the forest vegetation condition and its moisture status. PMID:21909297

Risk and Protective Factors for Fires, Burns, and Carbon Monoxide Poisoning in U.S. Households

PubMed Central

Runyan, Carol W.; Johnson, Renee M.; Yang, Jingzhen; Waller, Anna E.; Perkis, David; Marshall, Stephen W.; Coyne-Beasley, Tamera; McGee, Kara S.

2011-01-01

Background More needs to be known about the prevalence of risk and protective factors for fires, burns, and carbon monoxide poisoning in U.S. households. Methods A random-digit-dial survey was conducted about home safety with 1003 respondents representing households in the continental United States. Descriptive statistics assess the prevalence of risk and protective factors for fires, burns, and carbon monoxide overall, and by demographic characteristics, household structure, region, and residential tenure. The data were weighted to adjust for nonresponse and to reflect the U.S. population. Results Although most respondents reported having a smoke alarm (97%), and 80% reported having one on each level of their home, <20% reported checking the alarm at least every 3 months. Seventy-one percent reported having a fire extinguisher, 29% had a carbon monoxide detector, and 51% of those living with at least one other person had a fire escape plan. Few could report the temperature of their hot water at the tap (9%), or the setting on the hot water heater (25%). Only 6% had an antiscald device. Conclusions Results suggest that there is much room for improvement regarding adoption of measures to prevent fires, burns, and carbon monoxide poisoning. Further investigations of the efficacy of carbon monoxide detectors, fire extinguishers, and escape plans, as well as effectiveness studies of fire and burn-prevention efforts are needed. PMID:15626564

Detection, emission estimation and risk prediction of forest fires in China using satellite sensors and simulation models in the past three decades--an overview.

PubMed

Zhang, Jia-Hua; Yao, Feng-Mei; Liu, Cheng; Yang, Li-Min; Boken, Vijendra K

2011-08-01

Forest fires have major impact on ecosystems and greatly impact the amount of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. This paper presents an overview in the forest fire detection, emission estimation, and fire risk prediction in China using satellite imagery, climate data, and various simulation models over the past three decades. Since the 1980s, remotely-sensed data acquired by many satellites, such as NOAA/AVHRR, FY-series, MODIS, CBERS, and ENVISAT, have been widely utilized for detecting forest fire hot spots and burned areas in China. Some developed algorithms have been utilized for detecting the forest fire hot spots at a sub-pixel level. With respect to modeling the forest burning emission, a remote sensing data-driven Net Primary productivity (NPP) estimation model was developed for estimating forest biomass and fuel. In order to improve the forest fire risk modeling in China, real-time meteorological data, such as surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, have been used as the model input for improving prediction of forest fire occurrence and its behavior. Shortwave infrared (SWIR) and near infrared (NIR) channels of satellite sensors have been employed for detecting live fuel moisture content (FMC), and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was used for evaluating the forest vegetation condition and its moisture status.

Risk and protective factors for fires, burns, and carbon monoxide poisoning in U.S. households.

PubMed

Runyan, Carol W; Johnson, Renee M; Yang, Jingzhen; Waller, Anna E; Perkis, David; Marshall, Stephen W; Coyne-Beasley, Tamera; McGee, Kara S

2005-01-01

More needs to be known about the prevalence of risk and protective factors for fires, burns, and carbon monoxide poisoning in U.S. households. A random-digit-dial survey was conducted about home safety with 1003 respondents representing households in the continental United States. Descriptive statistics assess the prevalence of risk and protective factors for fires, burns, and carbon monoxide overall, and by demographic characteristics, household structure, region, and residential tenure. The data were weighted to adjust for nonresponse and to reflect the U.S. population. Although most respondents reported having a smoke alarm (97%), and 80% reported having one on each level of their home, <20% reported checking the alarm at least every 3 months. Seventy-one percent reported having a fire extinguisher, 29% had a carbon monoxide detector, and 51% of those living with at least one other person had a fire escape plan. Few could report the temperature of their hot water at the tap (9%), or the setting on the hot water heater (25%). Only 6% had an antiscald device. Results suggest that there is much room for improvement regarding adoption of measures to prevent fires, burns, and carbon monoxide poisoning. Further investigations of the efficacy of carbon monoxide detectors, fire extinguishers, and escape plans, as well as effectiveness studies of fire and burn-prevention efforts are needed.

Risk terminology primer: Basic principles and a glossary for the wildland fire management community

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Tom Zimmerman; Dan Mindar; Mary Taber

2016-01-01

Risk management is being increasingly promoted as an appropriate method for addressing wildland fire management challenges. However, a lack of a common understanding of risk concepts and terminology is hindering effective application. In response, this General Technical Report provides a set of clear, consistent, understandable, and usable definitions for terms...

Quantification of Risk for USAF Fire and Emergency Services Flights as a Result of Shortages in Manpower

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

likelihood), which made DA a very effective technique in quantifying risk . Clemen and Reilly (2001) defined a specific process in DA shown on... quantifying risk as a function of time. Four experiments were conducted with different size fire crews and the time to complete each scenario was

Catching fire? Social interactions, beliefs, and wildfire risk mitigation behaviors

Treesearch

Katherine Dickinson; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

2015-01-01

Social interactions are widely recognized as a potential influence on risk-related behaviors. We present a mediation model in which social interactions (classified as formal/informal and generic-fire-specific) are associated with beliefs about wildfire risk and mitigation options, which in turn shape wildfire mitigation behaviors. We test this model using survey data...

Earth, wind, and fire: Wildfire risk perceptions in a hurricane-prone environment

Treesearch

Soren M. Newman; Matthew S. Carroll; Pamela J. Jakes; Daniel R. Williams; Lorie L. Higgins

2014-01-01

Wildfire is one of several potential disturbances that could have extraordinary impacts on individuals and communities in fire-prone areas. In this article we describe disturbance risk perceptions from interviews with residents in three Florida communities that face significant wildfire and hurricane risk. Although they live in areas characterized by emergency managers...

Is the current increase in fire recurrence causing a shift in the soil fertility of Iberian ecosystems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayor, Ángeles G.; Keizer, Jan Jacob; González-Pelayo, Óscar; Valdecantos, Alejandro; Vallejo, Ramón; de Ruiter, Peter

2015-04-01

Since the mid of the last century fire recurrence has increased in the Iberian peninsula and the overall Mediterranean basin due to changes in land use and climate. The warmer and drier climate projected for this region will further increase the risk of wildfire occurrence and of increasing fire recurrence. Although the impact of wildfires on soil nutrient content in this region has been extensively studied, still few works have assessed this impact on the basis of fire recurrence. This study assesses the changes in soil nutrient status of two Iberian ecosystems, Várzea (N Portugal) and Valencia (E Spain), affected by different levels of fire recurrence and where short inter-fire periods have promoted a transition from pine woodlands to shrublands. Trends towards soil fertility loss with increasing fire recurrence (one, two, three or four fires in 37 years) were observed in the two study sites. The sites differed when soil fertility of areas burned several times were compared with long unburned references. In Valencia, overall soil fertility of the surface mineral soil was lower in areas burned two or three times than in long unburned areas, twenty and eight years after the last fire, respectively. On the contrary, total organic matter in Várzea was higher in burned than in unburned soils one year after the occurrence of one or four fires. However, a negative impact of fire was observed for integrated indicators of soil quality, such as hot-water carbon and potentially mineralizable nitrogen, suggesting that fire also had an adverse effect on substrate quality in Várzea. Our results suggest that the current trend of increasing fire recurrence in Southern Europe may result in losses or alterations of soil organic matter, particularly when fire promotes a transition from pine woodland to shrubland.

An analysis of shoot and scoot tactics

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

firing multiple shots in the same location is preferable to moving immediately after firing one shot . Moving frequently reduces risk to artillery, but...preferable to moving immediately after firing one shot . Moving frequently reduces risk to artillery, but limits the artillery’s ability to inflict damage... study here. Thanks to his mistake (it might not be), I have completed a very tough matrix of 71 credits (56 grad level credits) in only one year. I

The pyrohealth transition: how combustion emissions have shaped health through human history.

PubMed

Johnston, Fay H; Melody, Shannon; Bowman, David M J S

2016-06-05

Air pollution from landscape fires, domestic fires and fossil fuel combustion is recognized as the single most important global environmental risk factor for human mortality and is associated with a global burden of disease almost as large as that of tobacco smoking. The shift from a reliance on biomass to fossil fuels for powering economies, broadly described as the pyric transition, frames key patterns in human fire usage and landscape fire activity. These have produced distinct patters of human exposure to air pollution associated with the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions and post-industrial the Earth global system-wide changes increasingly known as the Anthropocene. Changes in patterns of human fertility, mortality and morbidity associated with economic development have been previously described in terms of demographic, epidemiological and nutrition transitions, yet these frameworks have not explicitly considered the direct consequences of combustion emissions for human health. To address this gap, we propose a pyrohealth transition and use data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) collaboration to compare direct mortality impacts of emissions from landscape fires, domestic fires, fossil fuel combustion and the global epidemic of tobacco smoking. Improving human health and reducing the environmental impacts on the Earth system will require a considerable reduction in biomass and fossil fuel combustion.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

The pyrohealth transition: how combustion emissions have shaped health through human history

PubMed Central

Johnston, Fay H.; Melody, Shannon

2016-01-01

Air pollution from landscape fires, domestic fires and fossil fuel combustion is recognized as the single most important global environmental risk factor for human mortality and is associated with a global burden of disease almost as large as that of tobacco smoking. The shift from a reliance on biomass to fossil fuels for powering economies, broadly described as the pyric transition, frames key patterns in human fire usage and landscape fire activity. These have produced distinct patters of human exposure to air pollution associated with the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions and post-industrial the Earth global system-wide changes increasingly known as the Anthropocene. Changes in patterns of human fertility, mortality and morbidity associated with economic development have been previously described in terms of demographic, epidemiological and nutrition transitions, yet these frameworks have not explicitly considered the direct consequences of combustion emissions for human health. To address this gap, we propose a pyrohealth transition and use data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) collaboration to compare direct mortality impacts of emissions from landscape fires, domestic fires, fossil fuel combustion and the global epidemic of tobacco smoking. Improving human health and reducing the environmental impacts on the Earth system will require a considerable reduction in biomass and fossil fuel combustion. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216506

Preliminary results of the PREFER FP7 Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fusilli, Lorenzo; Laneve, Giovanni; De Bonis, Roberto; Sebastian, Ana; Ferrucci, Fabrizio; Oliveira, Sandra

2014-05-01

The need to improve the information and intelligence support for forest fire prevention is widely recognized. Fire prevention is still the most cost-effective strategy when compared to firefighting and extinguishing that are costly, local, and triggered only in response to already ongoing crises. PREFER project, funded under the EU FP7 (G.A. 312931), intends to contribute at responding to such a pragmatic need of southern Europe's forests by: providing timely information products based on the exploitation of all available spacecraft sensors, offering a portfolio of products focused on pre- and post-crisis forest fire emergency, suitable for the users in the different countries of the European Mediterranean area. The PREFER Service portfolio consists of two main services: 1. Information Support to Fire Preparedness/Prevention Phase" (ISP) Service 2. Information Support to Fire Recovery/Reconstruction Phase" (ISR) Service This service is already at an advanced stage having completed the first year of activity. During this time several products have been consolidated: seasonal fuel maps; daily and seasonal fire hazard maps; seasonal risk maps; prescribed fire maps. This paper aims at presenting the preliminary results of the research activity carried out in the framework of the PREFER project, focusing, in particular, on these recalled above. As for Fire Risk and Hazard assessment, many indexes have been developed in the last years. Hardly any of them uses data derived from satellite images. The FPI index is an exception to this rule which, in addition, makes use of meteorological data. In spite of being a very complete index, the FPI still allows room for improvement which justify the interest of PREFER in it. PREFER's innovative approach to FPI will allow taking into account the effect of solar illumination conditions in determining the humidity present in the dead vegetation, and therefore its proneness to burn. PREFER innovation also focus in allowing the index to take into account the influence of water present in the alive vegetation (relevant in determining the fire regime) through the Equivalent Water Thickness. PREFER will use daily FPI forecasts to produce a seasonal fire hazard index by introducing in the model the human factor as captured by the fire occurrence statistics. PREFER will produce also seasonal fire risk maps by combining the seasonal hazard data with vulnerability and exposure maps. Finally, Prescribed Burning (PB) represents the controlled application of fire to vegetation under specific environmental conditions to attain planned resource management objectives. The main objective of the PREFER service for PB is to support the user in the identification of the areas and the time, that is where and when, the PB practice is applicable in a secure way. The main innovation, taking into account the results previously obtained in the frame work of other European projects (FIREPARADOX), will be the integration of the advanced remote sensing techniques that have not yet been developed for the problem under study, aiming at developing an index capable to provide the right time to intervene with the PB in the area of interest.

Surgical fires: perioperative communication is essential to prevent this rare but devastating complication.

PubMed

Bruley, M E

2004-12-01

A fire on or within a surgical patient is a continuing risk in modern surgery. Unfortunately, the sensitivity of surgical and anaesthesia staff to this hazard has waned over the past 25 years with cessation of the use of flammable anaesthetic agents. Prevention of surgical fires requires understanding the risks and effective communication between surgical, anaesthesia, and operating nursing staffs. Preventive measures exist but have yet to diffuse sufficiently across professional boundaries. Based on a review of relevant databases, decades of experience from field investigations, and a review of the medical literature, this paper discusses the incidence of surgical fires, the responsibility for prevention in the perioperative setting, and the procedures for surgical fire prevention and extinguishment.

Surgical fires: perioperative communication is essential to prevent this rare but devastating complication

PubMed Central

Bruley, M

2004-01-01



 A fire on or within a surgical patient is a continuing risk in modern surgery. Unfortunately, the sensitivity of surgical and anaesthesia staff to this hazard has waned over the past 25 years with cessation of the use of flammable anaesthetic agents. Prevention of surgical fires requires understanding the risks and effective communication between surgical, anaesthesia, and operating nursing staffs. Preventive measures exist but have yet to diffuse sufficiently across professional boundaries. Based on a review of relevant databases, decades of experience from field investigations, and a review of the medical literature, this paper discusses the incidence of surgical fires, the responsibility for prevention in the perioperative setting, and the procedures for surgical fire prevention and extinguishment. PMID:15576710

Remote Sensing of Wildland Fire-Induced Risk Assessment at the Community Level.

PubMed

Ahmed, M Razu; Rahaman, Khan Rubayet; Hassan, Quazi K

2018-05-15

Wildland fires are some of the critical natural hazards that pose a significant threat to the communities located in the vicinity of forested/vegetated areas. In this paper, our overall objective was to study the structural damages due to the 2016 Horse River Fire (HRF) that happened in Fort McMurray (Alberta, Canada) by employing primarily very high spatial resolution optical satellite data, i.e., WorldView-2. Thus, our activities included the: (i) estimation of the structural damages; and (ii) delineation of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and its associated buffers at certain intervals, and their utilization in assessing potential risks. Our proposed method of remote sensing-based estimates of the number of structural damages was compared with the ground-based information available from the Planning and Development Recovery Committee Task Force of Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB); and found a strong linear relationship (i.e., r² value of 0.97 with a slope of 0.97). Upon delineating the WUI and its associated buffer zones at 10 m, 30 m, 50 m, 70 m and 100 m distances; we found existence of vegetation within the 30 m buffers from the WUI for all of the damaged structures. In addition, we noticed that the relevant authorities had removed vegetation in some areas between 30 m and 70 m buffers from the WUI, which was proven to be effective in order to protect the structures in the adjacent communities. Furthermore, we mapped the wildland fire-induced vulnerable areas upon considering the WUI and its associated buffers. Our analysis revealed that approximately 30% of the areas within the buffer zones of 10 m and 30 m were vulnerable due to the presence of vegetation; in which, approximately 7% were burned during the 2016 HRF event that led the structural damages. Consequently, we suggest to remove the existing vegetation within these critical zones and also monitor the region at a regular interval in order to reduce the wildland fire-induced risk.

Alternative ponderosa pine restoration treatments in the western United States

Treesearch

James McIver; Phillip Weatherspoon; Carl Edminster

2001-01-01

Compared to presettlement times, many ponderosa pine forests of the United States are now more dense and have greater quantities of fuels. Widespread treatments are needed in these forests to restore ecological integrity and to reduce the risk of uncharacteristically severe fires. Among possible restorative treatments, however, the appropriate balance among cuttings,...

Introduction to fire danger rating and remote sensing - Will remote sensing enhance wildland fire danger prediction?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allgöwer, Britta; Carlson, J.D.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Chuvieco, Emilio

2003-01-01

While ‘Fire Danger’ per se cannot be measured, the physical properties of the biotic and abiotic world that relate to fire occurrence and fire behavior can. Today, increasingly sophisticated Remote Sensing methods are being developed to more accurately detect fuel properties such as species composition (fuel types), vegetation structure or plant water content - to name a few. Based on meteorological input data and physical, semi-physical or empirical model calculations, Wildland Fire Danger Rating Systems provide ‘indirect values’ - numerical indices - at different temporal scales (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly) denoting the physical conditions that may lead to fire ignition and support fire propagation. The results can be expressed as fire danger levels, ranging from ‘low’ to ‘very high’, and are commonly used in operational wildland fire management (e.g., the Canadian Fire Weather Index [FWI] System, the Russian Nesterov Index, or the U.S. National Fire Danger Rating System [NFDRS]). Today, fire danger levels are often turned into broad scale maps with the help of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) showing the areas with the different fire danger levels, and are distributed via the World Wide Web.In this chapter we will outline some key issues dealing with Remote Sensing and GIS techniques that are covered in the following chapters, and elaborate how the Fire Danger Rating concepts could be integrated into a framework that enables comprehensive and sustainable wildland fire risk assessment. To do so, we will first raise some general thoughts about wildland fires and suggest how to approach this extremely complex phenomenon. Second, we will outline a possible fire risk analysis framework and third we will give a short overview on existing Fire Danger Rating Systems and the principles behind them.

Variation in fire regimes of the Rocky Mountains: Implications for avian communities and fire management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saab, Victoria A.; Powell, Hugo D.W.; Kotliar, Natasha B.; Newlon, Karen R.; Saab, Victoria A.; Powell, Hugo D.W.

2005-01-01

Information about avian responses to fire in the U.S. Rocky Mountains is based solely on studies of crown fires. However, fire management in this region is based primarily on studies of low-elevation ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests maintained largely by frequent understory fires. In contrast to both of these trends, most Rocky Mountain forests are subject to mixed severity fire regimes. As a result, our knowledge of bird responses to fire in the region is incomplete and skewed toward ponderosa pine forests. Research in recent large wildfires across the Rocky Mountains indicates that large burns support diverse avifauna. In the absence of controlled studies of bird responses to fire, we compared reproductive success for six cavity-nesting species using results from studies in burned and unburned habitats. Birds in ponderosa pine forests burned by stand-replacement fire tended to have higher nest success than individuals of the same species in unburned habitats, but unburned areas are needed to serve species dependent upon live woody vegetation, especially foliage gleaners. Over the last century, fire suppression, livestock grazing, and logging altered the structure and composition of many low-elevation forests, leading to larger and more severe burns. In higher elevation forests, changes have been less marked. Traditional low-severity prescribed fire is not likely to replicate historical conditions in these mixed or high-severity fire regimes, which include many mixed coniferous forests and all lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) and spruce-fi r (Picea-Abies) forests. We suggest four research priorities: (1) the effects of fire severity and patch size on species’ responses to fire, (2) the possibility that postfire forests are ephemeral sources for some bird species, (3) the effect of salvage logging prescriptions on bird communities, and (4) experiments that illustrate bird responses to prescribed fire and other forest restoration methods. This research is urgent if we are to develop fire management strategies that reduce fire risk and maintain habitat for avifauna and other wildlife of the Rocky Mountains.

Variation in fire regimes of the rocky mountains: Implications for avian communities and fire management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saab, V.A.; Powell, Hugo D.W.; Kotliar, N.B.; Newlon, K.R.

2005-01-01

Information about avian responses to fire in the U.S. Rocky Mountains is based solely on studies of crown fires. However, fire management in this region is based primarily on studies of low-elevation ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests maintained largely by frequent understory fires. In contrast to both of these trends, most Rocky Mountain forests are subject to mixed severity fire regimes. As a result, our knowledge of bird responses to fire in the region is incomplete and skewed toward ponderosa pine forests. Research in recent large wildfires across the Rocky Mountains indicates that large burns support diverse avifauna. In the absence of controlled studies of bird responses to fire, we compared reproductive success for six cavity-nesting species using results from studies in burned and unburned habitats. Birds in ponderosa pine forests burned by stand-replacement fire tended to have higher nest success than individuals of the same species in unburned habitats, but unburned areas are needed to serve species dependent upon live woody vegetation, especially foliage gleaners. Over the last century, fire suppression, livestock grazing, and logging altered the structure and composition of many low-elevation forests, leading to larger and more severe burns. In higher elevation forests, changes have been less marked. Traditional low-severity prescribed fire is not likely to replicate historical conditions in these mixed or high-severity fire regimes, which include many mixed coniferous forests and all lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) and spruce-fir (Picea-Abies) forests. We suggest four research priorities: (1) the effects of fire severity and patch size on species' responses to fire, (2) the possibility that postfire forests are ephemeral sources for some bird species, (3) the effect of salvage logging prescriptions on bird communities, and (4) experiments that illustrate bird responses to prescribed fire and other forest restoration methods. This research is urgent if we are to develop fire management strategies that reduce fire risk and maintain habitat for avifauna and other wildlife of the Rocky Mountains.

Living with fire: How social scientists are helping wildland-urban interface communities reduce wildfire risk

Treesearch

Brian Cooke; Daniel Williams; Travis Paveglio; Matthew Carroll

2016-01-01

Reducing wildfire risk to lives and property is a critical issue for policy makers, land managers, and citizens who reside in high-risk fire areas of the United States - this is especially the case in the Rocky Mountain region and other western states. In order for a wildfire risk reduction effort to be effective in a U.S. wildland-urban interface (WUI)...

The Human and Physical Determinants of Wildfires and Burnt Areas in Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levin, Noam; Tessler, Naama; Smith, Andrew; McAlpine, Clive

2016-09-01

Wildfires are expected to increase in Mediterranean landscapes as a result of climate change and changes in land-use practices. In order to advance our understanding of human and physical factors shaping spatial patterns of wildfires in the region, we compared two independently generated datasets of wildfires for Israel that cover approximately the same study period. We generated a site-based dataset containing the location of 10,879 wildfires (1991-2011), and compared it to a dataset of burnt areas derived from MODIS imagery (2000-2011). We hypothesized that the physical and human factors explaining the spatial distribution of burnt areas derived from remote sensing (mostly large fires, >100 ha) will differ from those explaining site-based wildfires recorded by national agencies (mostly small fires, <10 ha). Small wildfires recorded by forestry agencies were concentrated within planted forests and near built-up areas, whereas the largest wildfires were located in more remote regions, often associated with military training areas and herbaceous vegetation. We conclude that to better understand wildfire dynamics, consolidation of wildfire databases should be achieved, combining field reports and remote sensing. As nearly all wildfires in Mediterranean landscapes are caused by human activities, improving the management of forest areas and raising public awareness to fire risk are key considerations in reducing fire danger.

The Human and Physical Determinants of Wildfires and Burnt Areas in Israel.

PubMed

Levin, Noam; Tessler, Naama; Smith, Andrew; McAlpine, Clive

2016-09-01

Wildfires are expected to increase in Mediterranean landscapes as a result of climate change and changes in land-use practices. In order to advance our understanding of human and physical factors shaping spatial patterns of wildfires in the region, we compared two independently generated datasets of wildfires for Israel that cover approximately the same study period. We generated a site-based dataset containing the location of 10,879 wildfires (1991-2011), and compared it to a dataset of burnt areas derived from MODIS imagery (2000-2011). We hypothesized that the physical and human factors explaining the spatial distribution of burnt areas derived from remote sensing (mostly large fires, >100 ha) will differ from those explaining site-based wildfires recorded by national agencies (mostly small fires, <10 ha). Small wildfires recorded by forestry agencies were concentrated within planted forests and near built-up areas, whereas the largest wildfires were located in more remote regions, often associated with military training areas and herbaceous vegetation. We conclude that to better understand wildfire dynamics, consolidation of wildfire databases should be achieved, combining field reports and remote sensing. As nearly all wildfires in Mediterranean landscapes are caused by human activities, improving the management of forest areas and raising public awareness to fire risk are key considerations in reducing fire danger.

Simulated Rainfall experiments on burned areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rulli, Maria Cristina

2010-05-01

Simulated Rainfall experiments were carried out in a Mediterranean area located in Italy, immediately after a forest fire occurrence, to evaluate the effects of forest fire on soil hydraulic properties, runoff and erosion. The selected study area was frequently affected by fire in the last years. Two adjacent 30 mq plots were set up with common physiographic features, and the same fire history, except for the last fire, which burned only one of them. Since both plots were previously subject to the passage of fire 6 years before the last one, one compares the hydrologic response and erosion of an area recently burned (B00) with that of an area burnt 6 years before (B06). Several rainfall simulations were carried out considering different pre-event soil moisture conditions where each rainfall simulation consisted of a single 60 minute application of rainfall with constant intensity of about 76 mm/h. The results show runoff ratio, evaluated for different pre-event soil moisture conditions, ranging from 0 to 2% for B06 plot, and from 21 to 41% for B00. Runoff ratio for the recently burned plot was 60 times higher than for the plot burned six years before, under wet conditions, and 20 times higher, under very wet conditions. A large increase in sediment production also was measured in B00 plot, as compared with that in B06 plot. Suspended sediment yield from B00 plot was more than two orders of magnitude higher than that from B06 plot in all the simulated events. The high runoff and soil losses measured immediately after burning indicate that effective post-fire rehabilitation programs must be carried out to reduce flood risk and soil erosion in recently burned areas. However, the results for the plot burned six year prior show that recovery of the hydrological properties of the soil occurs after the transient post fire modification.

Exposure assessment through realistic laboratory simulation of a soccer stadium fire.

PubMed

van Belle, N J C; van Putten, E M; de Groot, A C; Meeussen, V J A; Banus, S

2010-10-01

On Sunday April 13, 2008 a fire broke out on a grandstand in the Euroborg soccer stadium in Groningen The Netherlands. The polyamide chairs on the grandstand were set on fire and supporters were exposed to the emitted smoke which induced mild health effects. The Dutch government was concerned about potential health risks that such fires could have to exposed fans. Especially the exposure to toxic fumes was considered a risk because prior research has proven that large amounts of chemical compounds are emitted during the burning of chemical substances such as polyamide. Among these emitted compounds are HCN, CO, NO(x), NH(3) and volatile organic compounds. To study if supporters were exposed to hazardous chemical compounds we designed a laboratory controlled replica of a part of the grandstand of the Euroborg stadium to perform fire-experiments. This simulation of the fire under controlled circumstances proved that a wide variety of chemicals were emitted. Especially the emission of CO and NO(x) were high, but also the emission of formaldehyde might be toxicologically relevant. The emission of HCN and NH(3) were less than expected. Exposure assessment suggests that the exposure to NO(x) is the main health risk for the supporters that were present at the Euroborg fire. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

More stapler firings increase the risk of perioperative morbidity after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy

PubMed Central

Major, Piotr; Pędziwiatr, Michał; Pisarska, Magdalena; Małczak, Piotr; Wierdak, Mateusz; Dembiński, Marcin; Migaczewski, Marcin; Rubinkiewicz, Mateusz; Budzyński, Andrzej

2017-01-01

Introduction Staple-line bleeding and leakage are the most common serious complications of laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. The relationship between multiple stapler firings and higher risk of postoperative complications is well defined in colorectal surgery but has not been addressed in bariatric procedures so far. Identification of new factors such as “the numbers of stapler firings used during laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG)” as a predictor for complications can lead to optimization of the patient care at bariatric centers. Aim To determine the association between perioperative morbidity and the number of stapler firings during laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. Material and methods This observational study was based on retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data in patients operated on for morbid obesity in a teaching hospital/tertiary referral center for general surgery. The patients who underwent LSG were analyzed in terms of the number of stapler firings used as a new potential risk predictor for postoperative complications after surgery, adjusting for other patient- and treatment-related factors. The study included 333 patients (209 women, 124 men, mean age: 40 ±11). Results During the first 30 days after surgery, complications were observed in 18 (5.41%) patients. Multivariate analysis showed that prolonging operative time increased morbidity (every minute, OR = 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00–1.02) and the complication rate increased with the number of stapler firings (every firing, OR = 1.91; 95% CI: 1.09–3.33; p = 0.023). Conclusions Additional stapler firings above the usual number and a prolonged operation should alert a surgeon and the whole team about increased risk of postoperative complications. PMID:29643964

Fire management strategies to maintain species population processes in a fragmented landscape of fire-interval extremes.

PubMed

Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Pichancourt, Jean-Baptiste; Gosper, Carl R; Sanders, Angela; Chadès, Iadine

2016-10-01

Changed fire regimes have led to declines of fire-regime-adapted species and loss of biodiversity globally. Fire affects population processes of growth, reproduction, and dispersal in different ways, but there is little guidance about the best fire regime(s) to maintain species population processes in fire-prone ecosystems. We use a process-based approach to determine the best range of fire intervals for keystone plant species in a highly modified Mediterranean ecosystem in southwestern Australia where current fire regimes vary. In highly fragmented areas, fires are few due to limited ignitions and active suppression of wildfire on private land, while in highly connected protected areas fires are frequent and extensive. Using matrix population models, we predict population growth of seven Banksia species under different environmental conditions and patch connectivity, and evaluate the sensitivity of species survival to different fire management strategies and burning intervals. We discover that contrasting, complementary patterns of species life-histories with time since fire result in no single best fire regime. All strategies result in the local patch extinction of at least one species. A small number of burning strategies secure complementary species sets depending on connectivity and post-fire growing conditions. A strategy of no fire always leads to fewer species persisting than prescribed fire or random wildfire, while too-frequent or too-rare burning regimes lead to the possible local extinction of all species. In low landscape connectivity, we find a smaller range of suitable fire intervals, and strategies of prescribed or random burning result in a lower number of species with positive growth rates after 100 years on average compared with burning high connectivity patches. Prescribed fire may reduce or increase extinction risk when applied in combination with wildfire depending on patch connectivity. Poor growing conditions result in a significantly reduced number of species exhibiting positive growth rates after 100 years of management. By exploring the consequences of managing fire, we are able to identify which species are likely to disappear under a given fire regime. Identifying the appropriate complementarity of fire intervals, and their species-specific as well as community-level consequences, is crucial to reduce local extinctions of species in fragmented fire-prone landscapes. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

[Forest fire division by using MODIS data based on the temporal-spatial variation law].

PubMed

He, Cheng; He, Cheng; Gong, Yin-xi; Zhang, Si-yu; He, Teng-fei; Chen, Feng; Sun, Yu; Feng, Zhong-ke

2013-09-01

Forest fires are harmful to the ecological environment, which have induced global attention. In the present paper fire activities extracted from MODIS and burned areas were compared, and it was found that the wave band of 8-9 extracted from MOD14A1 was useful for fire monitoring, and the data accorded with field investigation with goodness of fit reaching up to 0. 83. Through combining this wave band and the relative data to make the time and space analysis of the forest fires for 11 years, from 2000 to 2010, the study showed that the fire occurred most frequently in the spring, the autumn took the second place, and in the summer there was almost no fire occurrence unless drought. Through the analysis of the research area, the burned areas of the coniferous forest and temperate mixed forest were 53.68% and 44%, respectively, while the grassland was only 2.32%. Da Hinggan Ling region was the main combustion area, the burned areas were 64.7% and that for Xiao Hinggan Ling was about 23.49%, while those for other areas were less than 5%. The majority of forest land of burned areas has a gentle slope (< or =5 percent), and is in the middle altitude between 200 and 500 m. So, using satellite remote sensing to analyze the time series of burned areas in forests would make the relationship between the fire activities, climate change, topography and vegetation type clear and it is also helpful to predicting the risk level of the fire areas.

Moving beyond traditional fire management practices to better minimize community vulnerability to wildfire in southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syphard, A. D.; Keeley, J. E.; Brennan, T. J.

2010-12-01

Wildfires are an important natural process in southern California, but they also present a major hazard for human life and property. The region leads the nation in fire-related losses, and since 2001, wildfires have damaged or destroyed more than 10,000 homes. As human ignitions have increased along with urban development and population growth, fire frequency has also surged, and most home losses occur in large fires when ignitions coincide with Santa Ana windstorms. As the region accommodates more growth in the future, the wildfire threat promises to continue. We will thus explore how a broader, more comprehensive approach to fire management could improve upon traditional approaches for reducing community vulnerability. The traditional approach to mitigating fire risk, in addition to fire suppression, has been to reduce fuel through construction of fuel breaks. Despite increasing expenditure on these treatments, there has been little empirical study of their role in controlling large fires. We will present the results of a study in which we constructed and analyzed a spatial database of fuel breaks in southern California national forests. Our objective was to better understand characteristics of fuel breaks that affect the behavior of large fires and to map where fires and fuel breaks most commonly intersect. We found that fires stopped at fuel breaks 22-47% of the time, depending on the forest, and the reason fires stopped was invariably related to firefighter access and management activities. Fire weather and fuel break condition were also important. The study illustrates the importance of strategic location of fuel breaks because they have been most effective where they provided access for firefighting activities. While fuel breaks have played a role in controlling wildfires at the Wildland Urban Interface, we are evaluating alternative approaches for reducing community vulnerability, including land use planning. Recent research shows that the amount and spatial arrangement of human infrastructure, such as roads and housing developments, strongly influences wildfire patterns. Therefore, we hypothesize that the spatial arrangement and location of housing development is likely to affect the susceptibility of lives and property to fire. In other words, potential for urban loss may be greatest at specific housing densities, spatial patterns of development, and locations of development. If these risk factors can be identified, mapped, and modeled, it is possible that vulnerability to wildfire could be substantially minimized through careful planning for future development - especially because future development will likely increase the region’s fire risk. To address these possibilities, we are evaluating past housing loss in relation to land use planning, in conjunction with other variables that influence fire patterns. We are also exploring alternative future scenarios to identify optimum land use planning strategies for minimizing fire risk.

RCRA Facility Investigation/Remedial Investigation Report with Baseline Risk Assessment for the Fire Department Hose Training Facility (904-113G)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palmer, E.

1997-04-01

This report documents the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation/Remedial Investigation/Baseline Risk Assessment (RFI/RI/BRA) for the Fire Department Hose Training Facility (FDTF) (904-113G).

Rationale and design of feeding America's bravest: Mediterranean diet-based intervention to change firefighters' eating habits and improve cardiovascular risk profiles.

PubMed

Sotos-Prieto, Mercedes; Cash, Sean B; Christophi, Costas A; Folta, Sara; Moffatt, Steven; Muegge, Carolyn; Korre, Maria; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Kales, Stefanos N

2017-10-01

Among US firefighters, cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of on-duty death. Poor diet contributes to this burden, but effective strategies to encourage healthy eating in the fire service are not established. "Feeding America's Bravest" motivates firefighters and their families to modify their food culture and reduce cardiometabolic risk profiles by adopting Mediterranean diet principles. Feeding America's Bravest is a cluster-randomized, controlled trial within the 44 stations of the Indianapolis Fire Department, including about 1000 firefighters. It compares a Mediterranean Diet Nutritional Intervention (MDNI) (group 1) vs. usual care (group 2) for 12months; followed by 12months of self-sustained continuation phase in the group 1 and cross-over to Mediterranean Diet Nutritional Intervention in group 2. Group 2 will receive the MDNI for 6months to test the efficacy of a shorter intervention followed by 6months of self-sustained phase. The intervention includes behavioral and environmental components. The primary outcome is 12-month change in Mediterranean diet score comparing group 1 vs. group 2; we will also assess 12- and 24-month change in group 1, and 6- and 12-month change in group 2, from baseline. Secondary outcomes are changes in body weight, body composition and other cardiometabolic risk markers; and correlations between self-reported dietary habits and biomarkers of dietary adherence. This innovative trial tests a novel worksite approach to introduce Mediterranean diet among US firefighters, through multi-pronged MDNI combining evidence-based behavior change strategies with economic incentives, family and peer support and environmental changes, informing recommendations for the US fire service and potentially other similar workforces. NCT02941757. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtonen, I.; Venäläinen, A.; Kämäräinen, M.; Peltola, H.; Gregow, H.

2016-01-01

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996-2014 and consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. In examining the relationship between weather and fire danger, we applied the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. However, the results reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase of forest-fire danger, emphasizing the large uncertainty related to the climate change signal in fire activity. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires in Finland occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is a more important cause of fires.

Growing season burns for control of hardwoods in longleaf pine stands

Treesearch

William D. Boyer

1990-01-01

Summer fires in existing longleaf pine stands carry undue risk of pine mortality. One summer fire caused as much mortality among pines in the l- through 4-inch d.b.h. classes as two successive summer fires among hardwoods of the same size. Mortality among mature pines was also excessive. Hardwood top-kill following a spring fire seemed affected more by fire intensity...

Effects of prescribed fire on fuels, vegetation, and Golden-cheeked Warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) demographics in Texas juniper-oak woodlands

Treesearch

Jennifer L. Reidy; Frank R., III Thompson; Carl Schwope; Scott Rowin; James M. Mueller

2016-01-01

The Golden-cheeked Warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) is an endangered songbird that breeds in mature juniper-oak woodlands restricted to Central Texas. This habitat is increasingly susceptible to crown fire due to climate change, land use change, and fire suppression. Prescribed fire is a potential tool to reduce the risk of crown fire and may be a...

Joint modeling of human dwellings and the natural ecosystem at the wildland-urban interface helps mitigation of forest-fire risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghil, M.; Spyratos, V.; Bourgeron, P. S.

2007-12-01

The late summer of 2007 has seen again a large number of catastrophic forest fires in the Western United States and Southern Europe. These fires arose in or spread to human habitats at the so-called wildland-urban interface (WUI). Within the conterminous United States alone, the WUI occupies just under 10 percent of the surface and contains almost 40 percent of all housing units. Recent dry spells associated with climate variability and climate change make the impact of such catastrophic fires a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists and the general public. In order to explore the qualitative influence of the presence of houses on fire spread, we considered only uniform landscapes and fire spread as a simple percolation process, with given house densities d and vegetation flammabilities p. Wind, topography, fuel heterogeneities, firebrands and weather affect actual fire spread. The present theoretical results would therefore, need to be integrated into more detailed fire models before practical, quantitative applications of the present results. Our simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, shows that fire-size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density d and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability p and house density d. The sharpness of this transition is related to the critical thresholds that arise in percolation theory for an infinite domain; it is their translation into our model's finite-area domain, which is a more realistic representation of actual fire landscapes. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition zone. Hence, and despite having neglected additional complexities, our idealized model's results indicate that more detailed models used for assessing fire risk in the WUI should integrate the density and flammability of houses in these areas. Furthermore, our results imply that fire proofing houses and their immediate surroundings within the WUI would not only reduce the houses' flammability and increase the security of the inhabitants, but also reduce fire risk for the entire landscape.

Human influence on California fire regimes.

PubMed

Syphard, Alexandra D; Radeloff, Volker C; Keeley, Jon E; Hawbaker, Todd J; Clayton, Murray K; Stewart, Susan I; Hammer, Roger B

2007-07-01

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation.

Human influence on California fire regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, A.D.; Radeloff, V.C.; Keeley, J.E.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Clayton, M.K.; Stewart, S.I.; Hammer, R.B.

2007-01-01

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Fire Safety for the Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeon and Surgical Staff.

PubMed

Di Pasquale, LisaMarie; Ferneini, Elie M

2017-05-01

Fire in the operating room is a life-threatening emergency that demands quick, efficient intervention. Because the circumstances surrounding fires are generally well-understood, virtually every operating room fire is preventable. Before every operating room case, thorough preprocedure "time outs" should address each team members' awareness of specific fire risks and agreement regarding fire concerns and emergency actions. Fire prevention centers on 3 constituent parts of the fire triad necessary for fire formation. Regular fire drills should guide policies and procedures to prevent surgical fires. Delivering optimal patient care in emergent situations requires surgical team training, practicing emergency roles, and specific actions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Internet of Things Based Combustible Ice Safety Monitoring System Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Enji

2017-05-01

As the development of human society, more energy is requires to meet the need of human daily lives. New energies play a significant role in solving the problems of serious environmental pollution and resources exhaustion in the present world. Combustible ice is essentially frozen natural gas, which can literally be lit on fire bringing a whole new meaning to fire and ice with less pollutant. This paper analysed the advantages and risks on the uses of combustible ice. By compare to other kinds of alternative energies, the advantages of the uses of combustible ice were concluded. The combustible ice basic physical characters and safety risks were analysed. The developments troubles and key utilizations of combustible ice were predicted in the end. A real-time safety monitoring system framework based on the internet of things (IOT) was built to be applied in the future mining, which provide a brand new way to monitoring the combustible ice mining safety.

Influence of Running on Pistol Shot Hit Patterns.

PubMed

Kerkhoff, Wim; Bolck, Annabel; Mattijssen, Erwin J A T

2016-01-01

In shooting scene reconstructions, risk assessment of the situation can be important for the legal system. Shooting accuracy and precision, and thus risk assessment, might be correlated with the shooter's physical movement and experience. The hit patterns of inexperienced and experienced shooters, while shooting stationary (10 shots) and in running motion (10 shots) with a semi-automatic pistol, were compared visually (with confidence ellipses) and statistically. The results show a significant difference in precision (circumference of the hit patterns) between stationary shots and shots fired in motion for both inexperienced and experienced shooters. The decrease in precision for all shooters was significantly larger in the y-direction than in the x-direction. The precision of the experienced shooters is overall better than that of the inexperienced shooters. No significant change in accuracy (shift in the hit pattern center) between stationary shots and shots fired in motion can be seen for all shooters. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Fires, storms, and water supplies: a case of compound extremes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, G. J.; Nyman, P.; Langhans, C.; Jones, O.; Lane, P. N.

2013-12-01

Intense rainfall events following fire can wash sediment and ash into streams and reservoirs, contaminating water supplies for cities and towns. Post fire flooding and debris flows damage infrastructure and endanger life. These kinds of risks which are associated with a combination of two or more events (which may or may not be extreme when occurring independently) are an example of what the IPCC recently referred to as ';compound extremes'. Detailed models exist for modeling fire and erosion events separately, however there have been few attempts to integrate these models so as to estimate the water quality and infrastructure risks associated with combined fire and rainfall regimes. This presentation will articulate the issues associated with modeling the compound effects of fire and subsequent rainfall events on erosion, debris flows and water quality, and will describe and contrast several new approaches to modeling this problem developed and applied to SE Australian fire prone landscapes under the influence of climate change.

Contribution of Earth Observation and meteorological datasets for the design and development of a national fire risk assessment system (NFOFRAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katagis, Thomas; Bliziotis, Dimitris; Liantinioti, Chrysa; Gitas, Ioannis Z.; Charalampopoulou, Betty

2016-08-01

During the past decades, forest fires have increased both in frequency and severity thus, increasing the life threats for people and environment and leading countries to spend vast amounts of resources in fighting forest fires. Besides anthropogenic activities, climatic and environmental changes are considered as driving factors affecting fire occurrence and vegetation succession. Especially in the Mediterranean region, the development and existence of effective tools and services is crucial for assisting pre-fire planning and preparedness. The collaborative project NFOFRAS aims at introducing an innovative and effective system for rating forest fire risk, and is based on existing technology and standards that have been developed by countries with a long and a very successful involvement in this field. During the first phase of the project a detailed documentation of the proposed methodology was composed. In addition, Earth Observation (EO) and meteorological datasets were utilized for producing accurate pre-fire measurements over a selected study area in Greece.

Acute health effects among firefighters exposed to a polyvinyl chloride (PVC) fire

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Markowitz, J.S.; Gutterman, E.M.; Schwartz, S.

1989-05-01

Firefighters are frequently being called on to fight fires that are chemical in nature. In the aftermath of a chemical fire in Plainfield, New Jersey on March 20-21, 1985, the authors conducted a retrospective cohort study which surveyed 80 firefighters exposed to burning polyvinyl chloride (PVC) as well as 15 nonexposed firefighter subjects. By means of an 81-item symptom checklist, exposed firefighters reported more frequent and severe symptoms at 5-6 weeks post incident. This was true for a total symptomatology score as well as 19 individual items. Some of the items with an elevated risk were consistent with exposure tomore » hydrogen chloride, the main pyrolysis product of polyvinyl chloride. Other items with an elevated risk appeared to be related to smoke inhalation while others seemed psychosocial in nature. Analyses conducted within the exposed firefighter group showed that fighting the fire the first day, being a truckman, and residence within 1 mile (1.6 km) of the firehouse were significant risk factors for high total symptom scores. These risk factors may have been associated with level or duration of exposure to the toxic substances produced during the fire.« less

Responding to bushfire risk: the need for transformative adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Saffron J.; Handmer, John

2012-03-01

The 2009 ‘Black Saturday’ bushfires led to 172 civilian deaths, and were proclaimed as one of Australia’s worst natural disasters. The Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission was set up in the wake of the fires to investigate the circumstances surrounding the death of each fatality. Here, results from an analysis undertaken for the Commission to examine the household preparedness policy ‘Prepare, Stay and Defend, or Leave Early’ (‘Stay or Go’), plus an examination of the Commission’s recommendations, are explored in the broader context of adaptation to bushfire. We find Victoria ill adapted to complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday due to changing settlement patterns and the known vulnerabilities of populations living in fire prone areas, and increasingly in the future due to the influence of climate change extending fire seasons and their severity. We suggest that uncertainty needs to be better acknowledged and managed in fire risk situations, and that the responsibility for fire preparedness should be more justly distributed. We suggest that a transformation in adaptation is required to effectively manage complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday, and provide four key ways in which transformation in bushfire preparedness could be achieved.

Do agricultural terraces and forest fires recurrence in Mediterranean afforested micro-catchments alter soil quality and soil nutrient content?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

E Lucas-Borja, Manuel; Calsamiglia, Aleix; Fortesa, Josep; García-Comendador, Julián; Gago, Jorge; Estrany, Joan

2017-04-01

Bioclimatic characteristics and intense human pressure promote Mediterranean ecosystems to be fire-prone. Afforestation processes resulting from the progressive land abandonment during the last decades led to greater biomass availability increasing the risk of large forest fires. Likewise, the abandonment and lack of maintenance in the terraced lands constitute a risk of land degradation in terms of soil quantity and quality. Despite the effects of fire and the abandonment of terraced lands on soil loss and physico-chemical properties are identified, it is not clearly understood how wildfires and abandonment of terraces affect soil quality and nutrients content. Microbiological soil parameters and soil enzymes activities are biomarkers of the soil microbial communitýs functional ability, which potentially enables them as indicators of change, disturbance or stress within the soil community. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of terracing (abandoned and non-abandoned) on the soil enzyme activities, microbiological soil parameters and soil nutrients dynamics in three Mediterranean afforested micro-catchments (i.e., < 2 ha) under different forest fire recurrence in the last 20 years; i.e., unburned areas, burned once and burned twice. The combination of the presence of terraces and the recurrence of forest fire, thirty-six plots of 25 m2 were sampled along the these three micro-catchments collecting four replicas at the corners of each plot. The results elucidated how non-terraced and unburned plots presented the highest values of soil respiration rate and extracellular soil enzymes. Differences between experimental plots with different forest fire recurrence or comparing terraced and unburned plots with burned plots were weaker in relation to biochemical and microbiological parameters. Soil nutrient content showed an opposite trend with higher values in terraced plots, although differences were weaker. We conclude that terraced landscapes present poorer soil quality parameters due to land abandonment and the lack of terraced management. In addition, forest fire recurrence exacerbates soil degradation processes due to the direct effects on vegetation and soil properties.

Perceptions of Wildfire Threat and Mitigation Measures by Residents of Fire-Prone Communities in the Northeast: Survey Results and Wildland Fire Management Implications

Treesearch

Robert L. Ryan; Mark B. Wamsley

2006-01-01

We surveyed residents of fire-prone areas of the Central Pine Barrens of Long Island, New York, and the Plymouth Pine Barrens in Massachusetts to learn how they perceived wildland fire risk and management techniques for reducing fire hazard. We found that residents considered the fire threat to their own property to be relatively low in spite of first-hand experience...

High-fire-risk behavior in critical fire areas

Treesearch

William S. Folkman

1977-01-01

Observations of fire-related behavior of wildland visitors were made in three types of areas-wilderness, established campground, and built-up commercial and residential areas-within the San Bernardino National Forest, California. Interviews were conducted with all persons so observed. Types of fire-related behavior differed markedly from one area to another, as did the...

Temporal changes to fire risk in dissimilar WUI communities

Treesearch

N. C. Leyshon; C. A. Dicus; D. B. Sapsis

2015-01-01

Despite increasing proportions of governmental budgets allocated to fire suppression resources, wildfires annually destroy great numbers of homes and critical infrastructure in the wildland-urban interface (WUI). Since 2002, the largest fires in the histories of California, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Oregon, and Texas have occurred in spite of increased fire...

Evaluating spatially explicit burn probabilities for strategic fire management planning

Treesearch

C. Miller; M.-A. Parisien; A. A. Ager; M. A. Finney

2008-01-01

Spatially explicit information on the probability of burning is necessary for virtually all strategic fire and fuels management planning activities, including conducting wildland fire risk assessments, optimizing fuel treatments, and prevention planning. Predictive models providing a reliable estimate of the annual likelihood of fire at each point on the landscape have...

Developing the U.S. Wildland Fire Decision Support System

Treesearch

Erin Noonan-Wright; Tonja S. Opperman; Mark A. Finney; Tom Zimmerman; Robert C. Seli; Lisa M. Elenz; David E. Calkin; John R. Fiedler

2011-01-01

A new decision support tool, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) has been developed to support risk-informed decision-making for individual fires in the United States. WFDSS accesses national weather data and forecasts, fire behavior prediction, economic assessment, smoke management assessment, and landscape databases to efficiently formulate and apply...

Assessing wildland fire risk transmission to communities in northern Spain

Treesearch

Fermín J. Alcasena; Michele Salis; Alan A. Ager; Rafael Castell; Cristina Vega-García

2017-01-01

We assessed potential economic losses and transmission to residential houses from wildland fires in a rural area of central Navarra (Spain). Expected losses were quantified at the individual structure level (n = 306) in 14 rural communities by combining fire model predictions of burn probability and fire intensity with susceptibility functions derived from expert...

The science of firescapes: Achieving fire-resilient communities

Treesearch

Alistair M. S. Smith; Crystal A. Kolden; Travis B. Paveglio; Mark A. Cochrane; David MJS Bowman; Max A. Moritz; Andrew D. Kliskey; Lilian Alessa; Andrew T. Hudak; Chad M. Hoffman; James A. Lutz; Lloyd P. Queen; Scott J. Goetz; Philip E. Higuera; Luigi Boschetti; Mike Flannigan; Kara M. Yedinak; Adam C. Watts; Eva K. Strand; Jan W. van Wagtendonk; John W. Anderson; Brian J. Stocks; John T. Abatzoglou

2016-01-01

Wildland fire management has reached a crossroads. Current perspectives are not capable of answering interdisciplinary adaptation and mitigation challenges posed by increases in wildfire risk to human populations and the need to reintegrate fire as a vital landscape process. Fire science has been, and continues to be, performed in isolated "silos," including...

Fire weather technology for fire agrometeorology operations

Treesearch

Francis Fujioka

2008-01-01

Even as the magnitude of wildfire problems increases globally, United Nations agencies are acting to mitigate the risk of wildfire disasters to members. Fire management organizations worldwide may vary considerably in operational scope, depending on the number and type of resources an organization manages. In any case, good fire weather information is vital. This paper...

Predicting fire impact from plant traits?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoof, Cathelijne; Ottink, Roos; Zylstra, Philip; Cornelissen, Hans; Fernandes, Paulo

2017-04-01

Fire can considerably increase the landscape's vulnerability to flooding and erosion, which is in part caused by fire-induced soil heating, vegetation removal and resulting hydrological changes. While the magnitude of these fire effects and ecosystem responses is frequently studied, there is still little attention for the fundamental mechanisms that drive these changes. One example is on the effect of plants: while it is known that plants can alter the fire environment, there is a major knowledge gap regarding the fundamental mechanisms by which vegetation mediates fire impact on soil and hydrology. Essential to identifying these mechanisms is consideration of the effects of vegetation on flammability and fire behaviour, which are studied both in ecology and traditional fire science. Here we discuss the challenges of integrating these very distinct fields and the potential benefits of this integration for improved understanding of fire effects on soil and hydrology. We furthermore present results of a study in which we assessed the spatial drivers controlling the proportion of live and dead fuel in a natural park in northern Portugal, and evaluated the impacts on the spatial variability of fire behaviour and potential soil heating using BehavePlus modeling. Better understanding of the role of (spatial variability in) plant traits on fire impact can facilitate the development of risk maps to ultimately help predict and mitigate fire risk and impact across landscapes.

Climatic and socio-economic fire drivers in the Mediterranean basin at a century scale: Analysis and modelling based on historical fire statistics and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mouillot, F.; Koutsias, N.; Conedera, M.; Pezzatti, B.; Madoui, A.; Belhadj Kheder, C.

2017-12-01

Wildfire is the main disturbance affecting Mediterranean ecosystems, with implications on biogeochemical cycles, biosphere/atmosphere interactions, air quality, biodiversity, and socio-ecosystems sustainability. The fire/climate relationship is time-scale dependent and may additionally vary according to concurrent changes climatic, environmental (e.g. land use), and fire management processes (e.g. fire prevention and control strategies). To date, however, most studies focus on a decadal scale only, being fire statistics ore remote sensing data usually available for a few decades only. Long-term fire data may allow for a better caption of the slow-varying human and climate constrains and for testing the consistency of the fire/climate relationship on the mid-time to better apprehend global change effects on fire risks. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) associated with process-based fire models have been recently developed to capture both the direct role of climate on fire hazard and the indirect role of changes in vegetation and human population, to simulate biosphere/atmosphere interactions including fire emissions. Their ability to accurately reproduce observed fire patterns is still under investigation regarding seasonality, extreme events or temporal trend to identify potential misrepresentations of processes. We used a unique long-term fire reconstruction (from 1880 to 2016) of yearly burned area along a North/South and East/West environmental gradient across the Mediterranean Basin (southern Switzerland, Greece, Algeria, Tunisia) to capture the climatic and socio economic drivers of extreme fire years by linking yearly burned area with selected climate indices derived from historical climate databases and socio-economic variables. We additionally compared the actual historical reconstructed fire history with the yearly burned area simulated by a panel of DGVMS (FIREMIP initiative) driven by daily CRU climate data at 0.5° resolution across the Mediterranean basin. We will present and discuss the key processes driving interannual fire hazard along the 20th century, and analysed how DGVMs capture this interannual variability.

At the nexus of fire, water and society

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Deborah

2016-01-01

The societal risks of water scarcity and water-quality impairment have received considerable attention, evidenced by recent analyses of these topics by the 2030 Water Resources Group, the United Nations and the World Economic Forum. What are the effects of fire on the predicted water scarcity and declines in water quality? Drinking water supplies for humans, the emphasis of this exploration, are derived from several land cover types, including forests, grasslands and peatlands, which are vulnerable to fire. In the last two decades, fires have affected the water supply catchments of Denver (CO) and other southwestern US cities, and four major Australian cities including Sydney, Canberra, Adelaide and Melbourne. In the same time period, several, though not all, national, regional and global water assessments have included fire in evaluations of the risks that affect water supplies. The objective of this discussion is to explore the nexus of fire, water and society with the hope that a more explicit understanding of fire effects on water supplies will encourage the incorporation of fire into future assessments of water supplies, into the pyrogeography conceptual framework and into planning efforts directed at water resiliency.

Evaluation of critical nuclear power plant electrical cable response to severe thermal fire conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Gabriel James

The failure of electrical cables exposed to severe thermal fire conditions are a safety concern for operating commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has promoted the use of risk-informed and performance-based methods for fire protection which resulted in a need to develop realistic methods to quantify the risk of fire to NPP safety. Recent electrical cable testing has been conducted to provide empirical data on the failure modes and likelihood of fire-induced damage. This thesis evaluated numerous aspects of the data. Circuit characteristics affecting fire-induced electrical cable failure modes have been evaluated. In addition, thermal failure temperatures corresponding to cable functional failures have been evaluated to develop realistic single point thermal failure thresholds and probability distributions for specific cable insulation types. Finally, the data was used to evaluate the prediction capabilities of a one-dimension conductive heat transfer model used to predict cable failure.

Comparing two models for post-wildfire debris flow susceptibility mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cramer, J.; Bursik, M. I.; Legorreta Paulin, G.

2017-12-01

Traditionally, probabilistic post-fire debris flow susceptibility mapping has been performed based on the typical method of failure for debris flows/landslides, where slip occurs along a basal shear zone as a result of rainfall infiltration. Recent studies have argued that post-fire debris flows are fundamentally different in their method of initiation, which is not infiltration-driven, but surface runoff-driven. We test these competing models by comparing the accuracy of the susceptibility maps produced by each initiation method. Debris flow susceptibility maps are generated according to each initiation method for a mountainous region of Southern California that recently experienced wildfire and subsequent debris flows. A multiple logistic regression (MLR), which uses the occurrence of past debris flows and the values of environmental parameters, was used to determine the probability of future debris flow occurrence. The independent variables used in the MLR are dependent on the initiation method; for example, depth to slip plane, and shear strength of soil are relevant to the infiltration initiation, but not surface runoff. A post-fire debris flow inventory serves as the standard to compare the two susceptibility maps, and was generated by LiDAR analysis and field based ground-truthing. The amount of overlap between the true locations where debris flow erosion can be documented, and where the MLR predicts high probability of debris flow initiation was statistically quantified. The Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) was used to compare the two models, and the results of the FMS comparison suggest that surface runoff-driven initiation better explains debris flow occurrence. Wildfire can breed conditions that induce debris flows in areas that normally would not be prone to them. Because of this, nearby communities at risk may not be equipped to protect themselves against debris flows. In California, there are just a few months between wildland fire season and the wet season to assess a community's risk and prepare. It is important, therefore, that researchers have a way to quickly and accurately assess the susceptibility for debris flows in recently burned areas.

Assessing fire risk in the wildland-urban interface.

Treesearch

Robert G. Haight; David T. Cleland; Roger B. Hammer; Volker B. Radeloff; T. Scott Rupp

2004-01-01

Identifying areas of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) that are prone to severe wildfire is an important step in prioritizing fire prevention and preparedness projects. Our objective is to determine at a regional scale the relative risk of severe wildfire in WUI areas and the numbers of people and houses in high-risk areas. For a study area in northern lower Michigan...

Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: Status and needs

Treesearch

Kevin Hyde; Matthew B. Dickinson; Gil Bohrer; David Calkin; Louisa Evers; Julie Gilbertson-Day; Tessa Nicolet; Kevin Ryan; Christina Tague

2013-01-01

Wildland fire management has moved beyond a singular focus on suppression, calling for wildfire management for ecological benefit where no critical human assets are at risk. Processes causing direct effects and indirect, long-term ecosystem changes are complex and multidimensional. Robust risk-assessment tools are required that account for highly variable effects on...

FireSmart®-ForestWise: Managing Wildlife and Wildfire Risk in the Wildland/Urban Interface-a Canadian Case Study

Treesearch

Alan Westhaver; Richard D. Revel; Brad C. Hawkes

2007-01-01

Reducing the risk of losses from wildfires that threaten homes and communities is a growing priority in Canada. To reduce risk, “FireSmart®” standards have been adopted nationwide for managing forest fuel. However, these standards largely disregard interests of wildlife and conservation of wildlife habitat – thus raising concerns...

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Avi Bar Massada; Volker C. Radeloff; Susan I. Stewart; Todd J. Hawbaker

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather...

Assessing fire risk in the wildland-urban interface

Treesearch

Robert G. Haight; David T. Cleland; Roger B. Hammer; Volker C. Radeloff; T. Scott Rupp

2004-01-01

Identifying areas of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) that are prone to severe wildfire is an important step in prioritizing fire prevention and preparedness projects. Our objective is to determine at a regional scale the relative risk of severe wildfire in WUI areas and the numbers of people and houses in high-risk areas. For a study area in northern lower Michigan...

Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) user manual (version 2006.01.18)

Treesearch

Peter R. Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Fredrick B. Pierson; David E. Hall; Corey A. Moffet; Louise E. Ashmun

2007-01-01

The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective post-fire erosion mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. To aid in this assessment, the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) was developed. This user manual describes the input parameters, input interface, model...

Barriers to implementation of risk management for federal wildland fire management agencies in the United States

Treesearch

Dave Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson; Alan A. Ager; Mark Finney

2010-01-01

In this presentation we review progress towards the implementation of a risk-based management framework for U.S. Federal wildland fire policy and operations. We first describe new developments in wildfire simulation technology that catalyzed the development of risk-based decision support systems for strategic wildfire management. These systems include new analytical...

Exposure–response relationships for select cancer and non-cancer health outcomes in a cohort of US firefighters from San Francisco, Chicago and Philadelphia (1950–2009)

PubMed Central

Daniels, Robert D.; Bertke, Stephen; Dahm, Matthew M.; Yiin, James H.; Kubale, Travis L.; Hales, Thomas R.; Baris, Dalsu; Zahm, Shelia H.; Beaumont, James J.; Waters, Kathleen M.; Pinkerton, Lynne E.

2015-01-01

Objectives To examine exposure–response relationships between surrogates of firefighting exposure and select outcomes among previously studied US career firefighters. Methods Eight cancer and four non-cancer outcomes were examined using conditional logistic regression. Incidence density sampling was used to match each case to 200 controls on attained age. Days accrued in firefighting assignments (exposed-days), run totals (fire-runs) and run times (fire-hours) were used as exposure surrogates. HRs comparing 75th and 25th centiles of lagged cumulative exposures were calculated using loglinear, linear, log-quadratic, power and restricted cubic spline general relative risk models. Piecewise constant models were used to examine risk differences by time since exposure, age at exposure and calendar period. Results Among 19 309 male firefighters eligible for the study, there were 1333 cancer deaths and 2609 cancer incidence cases. Significant positive associations between fire-hours and lung cancer mortality and incidence were evident. A similar relation between leukaemia mortality and fire-runs was also found. The lung cancer associations were nearly linear in cumulative exposure, while the association with leukaemia mortality was attenuated at higher exposure levels and greater for recent exposures. Significant negative associations were evident for the exposure surrogates and colorectal and prostate cancers, suggesting a healthy worker survivor effect possibly enhanced by medical screening. Conclusions Lung cancer and leukaemia mortality risks were modestly increasing with firefighter exposures. These findings add to evidence of a causal association between firefighting and cancer. Nevertheless, small effects merit cautious interpretation. We plan to continue to follow the occurrence of disease and injury in this cohort. PMID:25673342

Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Lamarque, Jean-François; Jiang, Leiwen; Arneth, Almut

2017-07-01

Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM2. 5), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire-dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM2. 5. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

75 FR 44275 - Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-28

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Federal Emergency Management Agency [Docket ID FEMA-2010-0037] Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION: Notice of extension of comment period. SUMMARY: The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is...

At the nexus of fire, water and society

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The societal risks of water scarcity and water-quality impairment have received considerable attention, evidenced by recent analyses of these topics by the 2030 Water Resources Group, the United Nations and the World Economic Forum. What are the effects of fire on the predicted water scarcity and declines in water quality? Drinking water supplies for humans, the emphasis of this exploration, are derived from several land cover types, including forests, grasslands and peatlands, which are vulnerable to fire. In the last two decades, fires have affected the water supply catchments of Denver (CO) and other southwestern US cities, and four major Australian cities including Sydney, Canberra, Adelaide and Melbourne. In the same time period, several, though not all, national, regional and global water assessments have included fire in evaluations of the risks that affect water supplies. The objective of this discussion is to explore the nexus of fire, water and society with the hope that a more explicit understanding of fire effects on water supplies will encourage the incorporation of fire into future assessments of water supplies, into the pyrogeography conceptual framework and into planning efforts directed at water resiliency. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216505

Shifts in functional traits elevate risk of fire-driven tree dieback in tropical savanna and forest biomes.

PubMed

Pellegrini, Adam F A; Franco, Augusto C; Hoffmann, William A

2016-03-01

Numerous predictions indicate rising CO2 will accelerate the expansion of forests into savannas. Although encroaching forests can sequester carbon over the short term, increased fires and drought-fire interactions could offset carbon gains, which may be amplified by the shift toward forest plant communities more susceptible to fire-driven dieback. We quantify how bark thickness determines the ability of individual tree species to tolerate fire and subsequently determine the fire sensitivity of ecosystem carbon across 180 plots in savannas and forests throughout the 2.2-million km(2) Cerrado region in Brazil. We find that not accounting for variation in bark thickness across tree species underestimated carbon losses in forests by ~50%, totaling 0.22 PgC across the Cerrado region. The lower bark thicknesses of plant species in forests decreased fire tolerance to such an extent that a third of carbon gains during forest encroachment may be at risk of dieback if burned. These results illustrate that consideration of trait-based differences in fire tolerance is critical for determining the climate-carbon-fire feedback in tropical savanna and forest biomes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk management of key issues of FPSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Liping; Sun, Hai

2012-12-01

Risk analysis of key systems have become a growing topic late of because of the development of offshore structures. Equipment failures of offloading system and fire accidents were analyzed based on the floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) features. Fault tree analysis (FTA), and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) methods were examined based on information already researched on modules of relex reliability studio (RRS). Equipment failures were also analyzed qualitatively by establishing a fault tree and Boolean structure function based on the shortage of failure cases, statistical data, and risk control measures examined. Failure modes of fire accident were classified according to the different areas of fire occurrences during the FMEA process, using risk priority number (RPN) methods to evaluate their severity rank. The qualitative analysis of FTA gave the basic insight of forming the failure modes of FPSO offloading, and the fire FMEA gave the priorities and suggested processes. The research has practical importance for the security analysis problems of FPSO.

Increased incidence of red imported fire ant (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) presence in loggerhead sea turtle (Testudines: Cheloniidae) nests and observations of hatchling mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parris, L.B.; Lamont, M.M.; Carthy, R.R.

2002-01-01

Hatching sea turtles may be at risk to fire ant predation during egg incubation, and especially at risk once pipped from the egg, prior to hatchling emergence from the nest. In addition to direct mortality, fire ants have the potential to inflict debilitating injuries that may directly affect survival of the young. The increased incidence of red imported fire ant induced mortality and envenomization of loggerhead sea turtle hatchlings on Cape San Blas suggests this invasive ant species may pose a serious threat to the future of this genetically distinct population.

Fire in the Earth system.

PubMed

Bowman, David M J S; Balch, Jennifer K; Artaxo, Paulo; Bond, William J; Carlson, Jean M; Cochrane, Mark A; D'Antonio, Carla M; Defries, Ruth S; Doyle, John C; Harrison, Sandy P; Johnston, Fay H; Keeley, Jon E; Krawchuk, Meg A; Kull, Christian A; Marston, J Brad; Moritz, Max A; Prentice, I Colin; Roos, Christopher I; Scott, Andrew C; Swetnam, Thomas W; van der Werf, Guido R; Pyne, Stephen J

2009-04-24

Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system.

Fire in the Earth system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowman, David M.J.S.; Balch, Jennifer; Artaxo, Paulo; Bond, William J.; Carlson, Jean M.; Cochrane, Mark A.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Doyle, John C.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Johnston, Fay H.; Keeley, Jon E.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Kull, Christian A.; Marston, J. Brad; Moritz, Max A.; Prentice, I. Colin; Roos, Christopher I.; Scott, Andrew C.; Swetnam, Thomas W.; van der Werf, Guido R.; Pyne, Stephen

2009-01-01

Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system.

Cascading effects of fire exclusion in the Rocky Mountain ecosystems: a literature review

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Kevin C. Ryan; Tom T. Veblen; Craig D. Allen; Jessie Logan; Brad Hawkes

2002-01-01

The health of many Rocky Mountain ecosystems is in decline because of the policy of excluding fire in the management of these ecosystems. Fire exclusion has actually made it more difficult to fight fires, and this poses greater risks to the people who fight fires and for those who live in and around Rocky Mountain forests and rangelands. This paper discusses the extent...

Fuels planning: science synthesis and integration; environmental consequences fact sheet 06: wildland fire use: the "other" treatment option

Treesearch

Anne Black

2004-01-01

Fire suppression has reduced acres burned to an average of 2 million acres a year. An unfortunate result of this has been the accumulation of even more above-normal fuel loads in many areas. This paper discusses (1) the important ecological role of fire, (2) using fire as a fuels treatment, and (2) the benefits and risks of fire.

A GIS-based multicriteria evaluation for aiding risk management Pinus pinaster Ait. forests: a case study in Corsican Island, western Mediterranean Region.

PubMed

Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

2011-07-01

Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk (M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration-Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)-for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

A GIS-Based Multicriteria Evaluation for Aiding Risk Management Pinus pinaster Ait. Forests: A Case Study in Corsican Island, Western Mediterranean Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

2011-07-01

Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk ( M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration— Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)—for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

Fatigue risk management by volunteer fire-fighters: Use of informal strategies to augment formal policy.

PubMed

Dawson, Drew; Mayger, Katherine; Thomas, Matthew J W; Thompson, Kirrilly

2015-11-01

An increasing number and intensity of catastrophic fire events in Australia has led to increasing demands on a mainly volunteer fire-fighting workforce. Despite the increasing likelihood of fatigue in the emergency services environment, there is not yet a systematic, unified approach to fatigue management in fire agencies across Australia. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to identify informal strategies used in volunteer fire-fighting and examine how these strategies are transmitted across the workforce. Thirty experienced Australian volunteer fire-fighters were interviewed in August 2010. The study identified informal fatigue-management behaviours at the individual, team and brigade level that have evolved in fire-fighting environments and are regularly implemented. However, their purpose was not explicitly recognized as such. This apparent paradox - that fatigue proofing behaviours exist but that they are not openly understood as such - may well resolve a potential conflict between a culture of indefatigability in the emergency services sector and the frequent need to operate safely while fatigued. However, formal controls require fire-fighters and their organisations to acknowledge and accept their vulnerability. This suggests two important areas in which to improve formal fatigue risk management in the emergency services sector: (1) identifying and formalising tacit or informal fatigue coping strategies as legitimate elements of the fatigue risk management system; and (2) developing culturally appropriate techniques for systematically communicating fatigue levels to self and others. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulating forest fuel and fire risk dynamics across landscapes--LANDIS fuel module design

Treesearch

Hong S. He; Bo Z. Shang; Thomas R. Crow; Eric J. Gustafson; Stephen R. Shifley

2004-01-01

Understanding fuel dynamics over large spatial (103-106 ha) and temporal scales (101-103 years) is important in comprehensive wildfire management. We present a modeling approach to simulate fuel and fire risk dynamics as well as impacts of alternative fuel treatments. The...

Wildfires and Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2009

2009-01-01

This publication discusses conditions that feed wildfires, how a building catches fire, determining the school's risk, creating a survivable space for the school, the importance of maintenance, the fire-resistant school, meeting code requirements, and related flood and mudslide risks. Much of this publication has been adapted for schools from the…

Long-term trends in fire behavior and changes in population at risk

EPA Science Inventory

Long-term trends in fire behavior and changes in population at risk Rappold AG, Peterson GC, US EPA Matt Jolly, USFS Air pollution regulations and technological advances have successfully reduced emissions of air pollutants from many anthropogenic sources in recent decades. Duri...

Reduction and mitigation of thermal injuries: what can be done?

PubMed

Voisine, J J; Albano, J P

1996-01-01

Soon after the introduction of the crashworthy fuel system and Nomex flight apparel, morbidity and mortality rates from thermal injuries in aviation were reduced to zero. Although the incidence of aircraft mishaps involving postcrash fires have remained the same, there has been a recent increase in thermal injury morbidity. These case reports describe three different aircraft accidents in which fire was caused by factors other than the crashworthy fuel system. They also describe sustained thermal injuries and compare them to personal protection equipment. We found that the condition of the personal protective equipment and unauthorized use of unapproved apparel were responsible for the sustained injuries. We maintain that personal protection equipment is effective if worn in the manner for which it was designed. We believe that the lessons learned apply to all military operations where the risk of fire is high, not solely aviation. A proactive program focused on education would reduce the thermal injury morbidity.

Post-fire hydrologic response in Central Portugal. A four years study at microplot scale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, Diana; Malvar, Maruxa; Martins, Martinho; Machado, Ana; Nunes, João; Keizer, Jacob

2014-05-01

Wildfires are a natural phenomenon in regions with a Mediterranean-type climate. However, their present-day widespread occurrence in southern Europe is unprecedented and strongly reflects human activity such as ignition, land-use changes, land abandonment and introduction of highly flammable plantations. Besides wildfires, post-fire management practices such as plowing, terracing, clearcutting and logging should also be considered, since their occurrence is getting increasingly common. And, in a long-term period these practices seem to be executed intercalated with repeated fire occurrences in the same site, sharing the impacts together with fire in an escalated degradational effect. In this sense, the work presented here concerns four years of runoff and erosion data at microplot scale after the wildfire, comparing different land management practices that occurred before the fire. Preliminary results indicate that in four years of monitoring, runoff is constantly higher in plowed sites than in the unplowed ones, with the exception of the first year. Regarding soil losses the plowed plots present always higher sediment rates than the unplowed ones. The comparison between two unplowed sites with different land uses, indicate higher runoff and erosion risk for pine comparatively to the eucalypt ones, however the reduced soil depth in the first can have an important role in these differences. Following these facts, the aim of the present work is to answer the following research questions: i) Do these four years of observations fit with the window of disturbance model presented by Prosser and Williams (1998). or the alternative version by Wittenberg and Inbar (2009)?; ii) Does pre-fire disturbances (wildfire, land use changes and land management practices) still have repercussions after wildfire?; In what sense does four years of intensive monitoring provides that one year couldn't provide?

Local Action Plans for Forest Fire Prevention in Greece: Existing situation and a Proposed Template based on the Collaboration of Academics and Public Policy Makers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papanikolaou, Dimitrios; Arvanitakis, Spyridon; Papanikolaou, , Ioannis; Lozios, Stylianos; Diakakis, Michalis; Deligiannakis, Georgios; Dimitropoulou, Margarita; Georgiou, Konstantinos

2013-04-01

Wildfires are a major hazard in Greece suffering on average 1,509 wildfires and 36,151 burned hectares of forestlands every year. Since 1998 the Greek Fire Service is responsible for wildfires suppression and response, while prevention and mitigation yearly directives are also being released by the General Secretariat of Civil Protection. The 3013/2002 Act introduced a major transfer of responsibilities from the national to local municipal and regional authorities, which are accompanied by supplementary financial support. Significant new features were established such as the operation of local coordination councils, the foundation of municipality civil protection offices, the establishment of the annually prevention planning for forest fires and the development of local action plans. The University of Athens has developed a Local Action Plan template for municipality administrative levels, integrating scientific techniques and technologies to public government management. The Local Action Plan for Forest Fire Prevention is the main handbook and primary tool of every municipality for reducing the risk of wildfires. Fire prevention and risk analysis are the principal aims of this Plan, which also emphasizes on the important role of the volunteer organizations on forest fire prevention. The 7 chapters of the Action Plan include the legal framework, the risk analysis parameters, the risk analysis using GIS, the prevention planning, the manpower and available equipment of services involved, along with operational planning and evaluation of the previous year's forest fire prevention actions. Multiple information layers, such as vegetation types, road network, power lines and landfills are combined in GIS environment and transformed into qualitative multiparameter as well as quantitative combinational fire hazard maps. These maps are essential in wildfire risk analysis as they display the areas that need the highest attention during the fire season. Moreover, the separate steps of operational planning and the reviewing of precaution, addressing and rehabilitation measures are analyzed. This action plan, risk analysis and maps are of decisive importance not only for prevention and operational planning purposes, but can also prove useful during the crisis and the rehabilitation processes as well. Additionally, we conducted a large questionnaire survey among the municipalities of Greece to assess the existing situation regarding forest fire prevention. Therefore, a network connecting civil protection departments of municipalities was developed, based on an Internet platform, which acted also as a communication tool. Overall, we had feedback either online or offline from 125 municipalities across the country (representing more than one/third of the total municipalities of Greece). 23% of the municipalities have not compiled an action plan yet despite the fact that the 3013/2002 Act of the Greek National Law requires one. Moreover, existing action plans are predominantly catalogues and tables of information regarding authorised personnel and equipment. They lack important information, present no spatial data and display no prevention measures. Indeed, 85% of the municipalities that have action plans do not use risk maps and spatial data, which are of decisive importance for compiling the plans. 74% of the municipalities do not keep a record of forest fires. The jurisdiction area has been modified after the new administrative plan of Kallikratis in 2010 in 74% of the municipalities, however, local action plans were not adapted accordingly in 61% of these. The daily Fire Risk Map of the General Secretariat of Civil Protection has a key role, since 77% of the municipalities take additional measures in case of increased fire risk. According to the civil protection officials, existing action plans suffer from several major problems which emerge due to the fact: that there is no assessment on the fire hazard 67%, there is lack of personnel training 65%, new technologies are not incorporated or used 57% and there is a lack of a template for compiling an action plan 53%. The partnership between the University of Athens with the support of the private sector and the Union of Municipalities of Attica was held under the LIFE+ project "Local Authorities Alliance for Forest Fire Prevention - LIFE08/ENV/GR/000553 " which is implemented with the contribution of the LIFE financial instrument of the European Community.

National Fire Plan Research and Development 2002 Business Summary

Treesearch

USDA Forest Service

2003-01-01

This report summarizes the progress made by Forest Service NFP R&D in FY2002, the second year of NFP funding. Fire research conducted by Forest Service R&D is working to provide the scientific foundation necessary to increase firefighting safety and effectiveness, enhance restoration of fire-scarred landscapes, reduce fire risk through improved management of...

Solution Focused Empathy Training Groups for Students with Fire-Setting Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Froeschle, Janet G.

2006-01-01

Fire-setting students are those who intentionally or unintentionally set one or more fires due to curiosity, stress, a need for attention, or due to criminal delinquency. This article describes the nature of fire-setting behaviors, discusses the profile and risk factors associated with the behavior, and outlines a group program using empathy…

Fires following bark beetles: Factors controlling severity and disturbance interactions in ponderosa pine

Treesearch

Carolyn H. Sieg; Rodman R. Linn; Francois Pimont; Chad M. Hoffman; Joel D. McMillin; Judith Winterkamp; L. Scott Baggett

2017-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that bark beetles and fires can be interacting disturbances, whereby bark beetle-caused tree mortality can alter the risk and severity of subsequent wildland fires. However, there remains considerable uncertainty around the type and magnitude of the interaction between fires following bark beetle attacks, especially in drier forest types...

Decision modeling for fire incident analysis

Treesearch

Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán

2009-01-01

This paper reports on methods for representing and modeling fire incidents based on concepts and models from the decision and risk sciences. A set of modeling techniques are used to characterize key fire management decision processes and provide a basis for incident analysis. The results of these methods can be used to provide insights into the structure of fire...

Bald Mountain Fire long term fire assessment - V1.0 9/24/2012

Treesearch

Bret Fay; LaWen Hollingsworth

2012-01-01

The purpose of this assessment is to answer a number of questions from the agency administrator and Fire Management staff. What are the risks to the following points of concern: Wilderness boundary; Forest Boundary; Minam Lodge and Red's Horse Ranch; Private Lands in Catherine Creek; Lostine River "cherry stem"; Probability of the fire establishing...

Understanding homeowner preparation and intended actions when threatened by a wildfire

Treesearch

Sarah M. McCaffrey; Greg Winter

2011-01-01

As wildland fires affect more houses, increasing attention is being paid to how homeowners in affected areas respond to the wildfire threat. Most research on homeowner responses to wildfire has focused on actions homeowners take before a fire to mitigate their fire risk, particularly vegetation management. Less attention has been paid to homeowner response during fires...

Cigarette Fires Involving Upholstered Furniture in Residences: The Role that Smokers, Smoker Behavior, and Fire Standard Compliant Cigarettes Play.

PubMed

Butry, David T; Thomas, Douglas S

2017-05-01

Residential structure fires pose a significant risk to life and property. A major source of these fires is the ignition of upholstered furniture by cigarettes. It has long been established that cigarettes and other lighted tobacco products could ignite upholstered furniture and were a leading cause of fire deaths in residences. In recent years, states have adopted fire standard compliant cigarettes ('FSC cigarettes') that are made with a wrapping paper that contains regularly spaced bands, which increases the likelihood of self-extinguishment. This paper measures the effectiveness of FSC cigarettes on the number of residential fires involving upholstered furniture, and the resulting fatalities, injuries, and extent of flame spread, while accounting for the under-reporting of fire incidents. In total, four models were estimated using fire department data from 2002 to 2011. The results provide evidence that FSC cigarettes, on average, reduced the number of residential fires by 45 %, reduced fatalities by 23 %, and extent of flame spread by 27 % in 2011. No effect on injuries was found. Within each state, effectiveness is moderated by the number of smokers and their consumption patterns. In general, FSC cigarettes are more effective in places with a large smoking population who engage in heavier smoking. There is a very limited effect on the lightest of smokers, suggesting behavioral differences between heavy and light smokers that influence fire risk.

Cigarette Fires Involving Upholstered Furniture in Residences: The Role that Smokers, Smoker Behavior, and Fire Standard Compliant Cigarettes Play

PubMed Central

Butry, David T.; Thomas, Douglas S.

2017-01-01

Residential structure fires pose a significant risk to life and property. A major source of these fires is the ignition of upholstered furniture by cigarettes. It has long been established that cigarettes and other lighted tobacco products could ignite upholstered furniture and were a leading cause of fire deaths in residences. In recent years, states have adopted fire standard compliant cigarettes (‘FSC cigarettes’) that are made with a wrapping paper that contains regularly spaced bands, which increases the likelihood of self-extinguishment. This paper measures the effectiveness of FSC cigarettes on the number of residential fires involving upholstered furniture, and the resulting fatalities, injuries, and extent of flame spread, while accounting for the under-reporting of fire incidents. In total, four models were estimated using fire department data from 2002 to 2011. The results provide evidence that FSC cigarettes, on average, reduced the number of residential fires by 45 %, reduced fatalities by 23 %, and extent of flame spread by 27 % in 2011. No effect on injuries was found. Within each state, effectiveness is moderated by the number of smokers and their consumption patterns. In general, FSC cigarettes are more effective in places with a large smoking population who engage in heavier smoking. There is a very limited effect on the lightest of smokers, suggesting behavioral differences between heavy and light smokers that influence fire risk. PMID:28751788

Review of methods for developing regional probabilistic risk assessments, part 2: modeling invasive plant, insect, and pathogen species

Treesearch

P. B. Woodbury; D. A. Weinstein

2010-01-01

We reviewed probabilistic regional risk assessment methodologies to identify the methods that are currently in use and are capable of estimating threats to ecosystems from fire and fuels, invasive species, and their interactions with stressors. In a companion chapter, we highlight methods useful for evaluating risks from fire. In this chapter, we highlight methods...

Tree thinning treatments alter soil properties, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and understory plant communities

Treesearch

Suzanne M. Neal

2007-01-01

Forest management practices designed to reduce fire risk, particularly thinning followed by burning slash piles, can cause below ground disturbance that creates favorable conditions for exotic plant species. Newer fuel-reduction methods, such as mechanical mastication are being examined as potential alternatives to the burning of slash piles. We compared soil...

Wire insulation degradation and flammability in low gravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, Robert

1994-01-01

This view-graph presentation covers the following topics: an introduction to spacecraft fire safety, concerns in fire prevention in low gravity, shuttle wire insulation flammability experiment, drop tower risk-based fire safety experiment, and experimental results, conclusions, and proposed studies.

Summaries of BFRL fire research in-house projects and grants, 1993

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jason, Nora H.

1993-09-01

The report describes the fire research projects performed in the Building and Fire Research Laboratory (BFRL) and under its extramural grants program during fiscal year 1993. The BFRL Fire Research Program has directed its efforts under three program thrusts. The in-house priority projects, grants, and externally-funded efforts thus form an integrated, focussed ensemble. The publication is organized along those lines: fire risk and hazard prediction - carbon monoxide prediction, turbulent combustion, soot, engineering analysis, fire hazard assessment, and large fires; fire safety of products and materials - materials combustion, furniture flammability, and wall and ceiling fires; and advanced technologies for fire sensing and control - fire detection and fire suppression. For the convenience of the reader, an alphabetical listing of all grants is contained in Part 2.0.

Wildfire disturbance, erosion and sedimentation risks following the Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flint, K.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Chin, A.; Florsheim, J. L.; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, S.

2016-12-01

Wildfire is a landscape-scale disturbance that causes abrupt changes to hydrological responses and sediment flux during subsequent storms. Burning hillslope vegetation during wildfires induces changes to sediment supply and stream flow magnitude. Altered post-fire processes such as channel erosion and sedimentation or flooding enhance downstream hazards that may threaten human populations and physical aquatic habitat over various time scales. Using data from a small drainage basin (Williams Canyon, 4.7 km2) in the Colorado front range burned by the 2012 Waldo Fire as a case study, we investigate post-fire recovery and assess changes in fire-related risks to downstream areas. Our local ground-based precipitation, field measurements, terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) scanning together with satellite-based remote sensing data (i.e. Landsat) provide a basis for time series analyses of reach-scale erosion and sedimentation response to rainfall patterns as vegetation patterns change following the wildfire. As a first step in quantifying the likelihood and consequences of specific risk scenarios, we examine changes in the combined probability of storm flows and post-fire erosion and sedimentation as vegetation recovers within the study watershed. We explore possible feedbacks and thresholds related to vegetation-hydrology-sediment interactions following wildfire under changing climate regimes. This information is needed to assist in post-fire management to promote sustainability of wildland fluvial systems.

Hazard report. Internal wire breakage in reusable electrosurgical active electrode cables may cause sparking and surgical fires.

PubMed

2009-07-01

Breaks in the internal wires of reusable electrosurgical active electrode cables can increase the risk of injuries and surgical fires. Careful visual and manual inspection during reprocessing and immediately before use, coupled with periodic replacement, can help limit the risk.

A model for assessing water quality risk in catchments prone to wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langhans, Christoph; Smith, Hugh; Chong, Derek; Nyman, Petter; Lane, Patrick; Sheridan, Gary

2017-04-01

Post-fire debris flows can have erosion rates up to three orders of magnitude higher than background rates. They are major sources of fine suspended sediment, which is critical to the safety of water supply from forested catchments. Fire can cover parts or all of these large catchments and burn severity is often heterogeneous. The probability of spatial and temporal overlap of fire disturbance and rainfall events, and the susceptibility of hillslopes to severe erosion determine the risk to water quality. Here we present a model to calculate recurrence intervals of high magnitude sediment delivery from runoff-generated debris flows to a reservoir in a large catchment (>100 km2) accounting for heterogeneous burn conditions. Debris flow initiation was modelled with indicators of surface runoff and soil surface erodibility. Debris flow volume was calculated with an empirical model, and fine sediment delivery was calculated using simple, expert-based assumptions. In a Monte-Carlo simulation, wildfire was modelled with a fire spread model using historic data on weather and ignition probabilities for a forested catchment in central Victoria, Australia. Multiple high intensity storms covering the study catchment were simulated using Intensity-Frequency-Duration relationships, and the runoff indicator calculated with a runoff model for hillslopes. A sensitivity analysis showed that fine sediment is most sensitive to variables related to the texture of the source material, debris flow volume estimation, and the proportion of fine sediment transported to the reservoir. As a measure of indirect validation, denudation rates of 4.6 - 28.5 mm ka-1 were estimated and compared well to other studies in the region. From the results it was extrapolated that in the absence of fire management intervention the critical sediment concentrations in the studied reservoir could be exceeded in intervals of 18 - 124 years.

Association between Residential Proximity to Fuel-Fired Power Plants and Hospitalization Rate for Respiratory Diseases

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiaopeng; Lessner, Lawrence

2012-01-01

Background: Air pollution is known to cause respiratory disease. Unlike motor vehicle sources, fuel-fired power plants are stationary. Objective: Using hospitalization data, we examined whether living near a fuel-fired power plant increases the likelihood of hospitalization for respiratory disease. Methods: Rates of hospitalization for asthma, acute respiratory infection (ARI), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were estimated using hospitalization data for 1993–2008 from New York State in relation to data for residences near fuel-fired power plants. We also explored data for residential proximity to hazardous waste sites. Results: After adjusting for age, sex, race, median household income, and rural/urban residence, there were significant 11%, 15%, and 17% increases in estimated rates of hospitalization for asthma, ARI, and COPD, respectively, among individuals > 10 years of age living in a ZIP code containing a fuel-fired power plant compared with one that had no power plant. Living in a ZIP code with a fuel-fired power plant was not significantly associated with hospitalization for asthma or ARI among children < 10 years of age. Living in a ZIP code with a hazardous waste site was associated with hospitalization for all outcomes in both age groups, and joint effect estimates were approximately additive for living in a ZIP code that contained a fuel-fired power plant and a hazardous waste site. Conclusions: Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that exposure to air pollution from fuel-fired power plants and volatile compounds coming from hazardous waste sites increases the risk of hospitalization for respiratory diseases. PMID:22370087

Improved biomass stove intervention in rural Mexico: impact on the respiratory health of women.

PubMed

Romieu, Isabelle; Riojas-Rodríguez, Horacio; Marrón-Mares, Adriana Teresa; Schilmann, Astrid; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Masera, Omar

2009-10-01

Exposure to biomass smoke has been related to adverse health effects. In Mexico, one household in four still cooks with biomass fuel, but there has been no evaluation of the health impact of reducing indoor air pollution. To evaluate the health impact of the introduction of an improved biomass stove (Patsari; Interdisciplinary Group for Appropriate Rural Technology [GIRA], Patzcuaro, Mexico) in Mexican women. A randomized controlled trial was conducted in the Central Mexican state of Michoacán. Households were randomized to receive the Patsari stove or keep their traditional open fire. A total of 552 women were followed with monthly visits over 10 months to assess stove use, inquire about respiratory and other symptoms, and obtain lung function measurements. Statistical analysis was conducted using longitudinal models. Adherence to the intervention was low (50%). Women who reported using the Patsari stove most of the time compared with those using the open fire had significantly lower risk of respiratory symptoms (relative risk [RR], 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62-0.95 for cough and RR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.11-0.77 for wheezing) adjusted for confounders. Similar results were found for other respiratory symptoms as well as for eye discomfort, headache, and back pain. Actual use of the Patsari stove was associated with a lower FEV(1) decline (31 ml) compared with the open fire use (62 ml) over 1 year of follow-up (P = 0.012) for women 20 years of age and older, adjusting for confounders. The use of the Patsari stove was significantly associated with a reduction of symptoms and of lung function decline comparable to smoking cessation.

The Spacecraft Fire Experiment (Saffire) - Objectives, Development and Status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoren, William; Ruff, Gary A.; Urban, David L.

2016-01-01

Since 2012, the Spacecraft Fire Experiment (Saffire) has been under development by the Spacecraft Fire Safety Demonstration (SFS Demo) project that is funded by NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems Division in the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. The overall objective of this project is to reduce the uncertainty and risk associated with the design of spacecraft fire safety systems for NASA's exploration missions. This is accomplished by defining, developing, and conducting experiments that address gaps in spacecraft fire safety knowledge and capabilities identified by NASA's Fire Safety System Maturation Team. This paper describes the three Spacecraft Fire Experiments (Saffire-I, -II, and -III) that were developed at NASA-GRC and that will conduct a series of material flammability tests in low-gravity and at length scales that are realistic for a spacecraft fire. The experiments will be conducted in Orbital ATK's Cygnus vehicle after it has unberthed from the International Space Station. The tests will be fully automated with the data downlinked at the conclusion of the test and before the Cygnus vehicle reenters the atmosphere. The objectives of these experiments are to (1) determine how rapidly a large scale fire grows in low-gravity and (2) investigate the low-g flammability limits compared to those obtained in NASA's normal gravity material flammability screening test. The hardware for these experiments has been completed and is awaiting their respective launches, all planned for 2016. This paper will review the objectives of these experiments and how they address several of the knowledge gaps for NASA's exploration missions. The hardware development will be discussed including several novel approaches that were taken for testing and evaluation of these series payloads. The status of the missions and operational status will also be presented.

Prescribed fires effects on physico-chemical properties and quantity of runoff and soil erosion in a Mediterranean forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esteban Lucas-Borja, Manuel; Plaza Alvaréz, Pedro Antonio; Sagra, Javier; Alfaro Sánchez, Raquel; Moya, Daniel; Ferrandiz Gotor, Pablo; De las Heras Ibañez, Jorge

2017-04-01

Wildfires have an important influence in forest ecosystems. Contrary to high severity fire, which may have negative impacts on the ecosystems, low severity induce small changes on soil properties. Thus and in order to reduce fire risk, low-severity prescribed fires have been widely used as a fuel reduction tool and silvicultural treatment in Mediterranean forest ecosystems. However, fire may alter microsite conditions and little is known about the impact of prescribed burning on the physico-chemical properties of runoff. In this study, we compared the effects of prescribed burning on physico-chemical properties and quantity of runoff and soil erosion during twelve months after a low severity prescribed fire applied in twelve 16 m2 plot (6 burned plots and 6 control plots used for comparison) set up in the Lezuza forest (Albacete, central-eastern Spain). Physico-chemical properties and quantity of runoff and soil losses were monitored after each rainfall event (five rainfall events in total). Also, different forest stand characteristics (slope, tree density, basal area and shrub/herbal cover) affecting each plot were measured. Results showed that forest stand characteristics were very similar in all used plots. Also, physico-chemical runoff properties were highly modified after the prescribed fire, increasing water pH, carbonates, bicarbonates, total dissolved solids and organic matter content dissolved in water. Electrical conductivity, calcium, sodium, chloride and magnesium were not affected by prescribed fire. Soil losses were highly related to precipitation intensity and tree interception. Tree intercepted the rainfall and significantly reduced soil losses and also runoff quantity. In conclusion and after the first six-month experiment, the influence of prescribed fires on physico-chemical runoff properties should be taken into account for developing proper prescribed burnings guidelines.

Cinema Fire Modelling by FDS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glasa, J.; Valasek, L.; Weisenpacher, P.; Halada, L.

2013-02-01

Recent advances in computer fluid dynamics (CFD) and rapid increase of computational power of current computers have led to the development of CFD models capable to describe fire in complex geometries incorporating a wide variety of physical phenomena related to fire. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) for cinema fire modelling. FDS is an advanced CFD system intended for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal flows, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. The course of fire in a cinema hall is described focusing on related safety risks. Fire properties of flammable materials used in the simulation were determined by laboratory measurements and validated by fire tests and computer simulations

Comparative Soot Diagnostics: 1 Year Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Urban, David L.; Griffin, DeVon W.; Gard, Melissa Y.

1998-01-01

The motivation for the Comparative Soot Diagnostics (CSD) experiment lies in the broad practical importance of understanding combustion generated particulate. Depending upon the circumstances, particulate matter can affect the durability and performance of combustion equipment, can be a pollutant, can be used to detect fires and, in the form of soot, can be the dominant source of radiant energy from flames. Bright sooty fires are desirable for efficient energy extraction in furnaces and power equipment. In contrast, soot-enhanced radiation is undesirable in many propulsion systems (e.g. jet engines). The non-buoyant structure of most flames of practical interest (turbulent) makes understanding of soot processes in low gravity flames important to our ability to predict fire behavior on earth. These studies also have direct applications to fire safety in human-crew spacecraft, since smoke is the indicator used for automated detection in current spacecraft. In addition, recent tests conducted on MIR showed that a candle in a truly quiescent spacecraft environment can burn for tens of minutes. Consequently, this test and many earlier tests have demonstrated that fires in spacecraft can be considered a credible risk. In anticipation of this risk, NASA has included fire detectors on Skylab, smoke detectors on the Space Shuttle (STS), and smoke detectors in the design for the International Space Station (ISS). In the CSD experiment, these smoke detectors were tested using, quasi-steady, low-gravity, particulate generating materials. Samples of the particulate were also obtained from these low-gravity sources. This experiment provides the first such measurements aimed toward understanding of soot processes here on earth and for the testing and design of advanced spacecraft smoke detection systems. This paper describes the operation and preliminary results of the CSD experiment which was was conducted in the Middeck Glovebox Facility (MGBX) on USMP-3. The objectives of CSD are to examine the particulate emission from a variety of pyrolyzing and combusting sources and to quantify the performance of several particulate-sensing diagnostic techniques. This paper presents the results of the microgravity portion of the CSD experiment. The results include the temporal response of the detectors and average sizes of the primary and aggregate particles captured on the thermophoretic probes. Complete assessment of the microgravity data and its combination with the normal-gravity data are still in process.

Allocating resources to large wildland fires: a model with stochastic production rates

Treesearch

Romain Mees; David Strauss

1992-01-01

Wildland fires that grow out of the initial attack phase are responsible for most of the damage and burned area. We model the allocation of fire suppression resources (ground crews, engines, bulldozers, and airdrops) to these large fires. The fireline at a given future time is partitioned into homogeneous segments on the basis of fuel type, available resources, risk,...

Building Fire Behavior Analyst (FBAN) capability and capacity: Lessons learned From Victoria, Australia's Bushfire Behavior Predictive Services Strategy

Treesearch

K. E. Gibos; A. Slijepcevic; T. Wells; L. Fogarty

2015-01-01

Wildland fire managers must frequently make meaning from chaos in order to protect communities and infrastructure from the negative impacts of fire. Fire management personnel are increasingly turning to science to support their experience-based decision-making processes and to provide clear, confident leadership for communities frequently exposed to risk from wildfire...

Conditions inside fisher dens during prescribed fires; what is the risk posed by spring underburns?

Treesearch

Craig M. Thompson; Kathryn L. Purcell

2016-01-01

The use of spring prescribed fires to reduce accumulated fuel loads in western forests and facilitate the return of natural fire regimes is a controversial topic. While spring burns can be effective at reducing fuel loads and restoring heterogeneous landscapes, concerns exist over the potential impacts of unnaturally-timed fires to native species. To protect native...

Predicting mortality of ponderosa pine regeneration after prescribed fire in the Black Hills, South Dakota, USA

Treesearch

Mike Battaglia; Frederick W. Smith; Wayne D. Shepperd

2009-01-01

Reduction of crown fire hazard in Pinus ponderosa forests in the Black Hills, SD, often focuses on the removal of overstorey trees to reduce crown bulk density. Dense ponderosa pine regeneration establishes several years after treatment and eventually increases crown fire risk if allowed to grow. Using prescribed fire to control this regeneration is...

Development of a Statistical Validation Methodology for Fire Weather Indices

Treesearch

Brian E. Potter; Scott Goodrick; Tim Brown

2003-01-01

Fire managers and forecasters must have tools, such as fire indices, to summarize large amounts of complex information. These tools allow them to identify and plan for periods of elevated risk and/or wildfire potential. This need was once met using simple measures like relative humidity or maximum daily temperature (e.g., Gisborne, 1936) to describe fire weather, and...

Climate change impact on fire probability and severity in Mediterranean areas

Treesearch

Bachisio Arca; Grazia Pellizzaro; Pierpaolo Duce; Michele Salis; Valentina Bacciu; Donatella Spano; Alan Ager; Mark Finney

2010-01-01

Fire is one of the most significant threats for the Mediterranean forested areas. Global change may increase the wildland fire risk due to the combined effect of air temperature and humidity on fuel status, and the effect of wind speed on fire behaviour. This paper investigated the potential effect of the climate changes predicted for the Mediterranean basin by a...

A framework for developing safe and effective large-fire response in a new fire management paradigm

Treesearch

Christopher J. Dunn; Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin

2017-01-01

The impacts of wildfires have increased in recent decades because of historical forest and fire management, a rapidly changing climate, and an increasingly populated wildland urban interface. This increasingly complex fire environment highlights the importance of developing robust tools to support risk-informed decision making. While tools have been developed to aid...

Restoring fire-adapted ecosystems: proceedings of the 2005 national silviculture workshop

Treesearch

Robert F. Powers

2007-01-01

Many federal forests are at risk to catastrophic wild fire owing to past management practices and policies. Mangers of these forests face the immense challenge of making their forests resilient to wild fire, and the problem is complicated by the specter of climate change that may affect wild fire frequency and intensity. Some of the Nation’s leading...

Fire interest and antisociality as risk factors in the severity and persistence of juvenile firesetting.

PubMed

MacKay, Sherri; Henderson, Joanna; Del Bove, Giannetta; Marton, Peter; Warling, Diane; Root, Carol

2006-09-01

In the DSM-IV-TR, firesetting is included as a criterion for the diagnoses of conduct disorder and pyromania. The link between firesetting and antisocial behavior is well established in the empirical literature. Although theoretical models of firesetting often include fire interest as a putative risk factor, there is little research on the role of fire interest in firesetting or on the construct of pyromania. The present study evaluated a sample of children and adolescents referred to an outpatient specialty program for juvenile firesetters with firesetting as the primary presenting problem. By assessing fire interest and antisocial behavior concurrently, the contribution of fire interest to firesetting after controlling for the role of conduct problems was evaluated. Results revealed that fire interest and antisocial behavior were significantly and positively correlated. Moreover, variations in fire interest added to the prediction of firesetting severity at assessment and firesetting recidivism at 18-month follow-up above and beyond what was predicted by antisociality alone. These findings have implications for an empirically derived taxonomy of pathological firesetting.

NASA's AVIRIS Instrument Sheds New Light on Southern California Wildfires

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

NASA's Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer instrument (AVIRIS), flying aboard a NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center high-altitude ER-2 aircraft, flew over the wildfires burning in Southern California on Dec. 5, 2017 and acquired this false-color image. Active fires are visible in red, ground surfaces are in green and smoke is in blue. AVIRIS is an imaging spectrometer that observes light in visible and infrared wavelengths, measuring the full spectrum of radiated energy. Unlike regular cameras with three colors, AVIRIS has 224 spectral channels from the visible through the shortwave infrared. This permits mapping of fire temperatures, fractional coverage, and surface properties, including how much fuel is available for a fire. Spectroscopy is also valuable for characterizing forest drought conditions and health to assess fire risk. AVIRIS has been observing fire-prone areas in Southern California for many years, forming a growing time series of before/after data cubes. These data are helping improve scientific understanding of fire risk and how ecosystems respond to drought and fire. https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA11243

Apples with apples: accounting for fuel price risk in comparisons of gas-fired and renewable generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2003-12-18

For better or worse, natural gas has become the fuel of choice for new power plants being built across the United States. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas combined-cycle and combustion turbine power plants accounted for 96% of the total generating capacity added in the US between 1999 and 2002--138 GW out of a total of 144 GW. Looking ahead, the EIA expects that gas-fired technology will account for 61% of the 355 GW new generating capacity projected to come on-line in the US up to 2025, increasing the nationwide market share of gas-fired generation frommore » 18% in 2002 to 22% in 2025. While the data are specific to the US, natural gas-fired generation is making similar advances in other countries as well. Regardless of the explanation for (or interpretation of) the empirical findings, however, the basic implications remain the same: one should not blindly rely on gas price forecasts when comparing fixed-price renewable with variable-price gas-fired generation contracts. If there is a cost to hedging, gas price forecasts do not capture and account for it. Alternatively, if the forecasts are at risk of being biased or out of tune with the market, then one certainly would not want to use them as the basis for resource comparisons or investment decisions if a more certain source of data (forwards) existed. Accordingly, assuming that long-term price stability is valued, the most appropriate way to compare the levelized cost of these resources in both cases would be to use forward natural gas price data--i.e. prices that can be locked in to create price certainty--as opposed to uncertain natural gas price forecasts. This article suggests that had utilities and analysts in the US done so over the sample period from November 2000 to November 2003, they would have found gas-fired generation to be at least 0.3-0.6 cents/kWh more expensive (on a levelized cost basis) than otherwise thought. With some renewable resources, in particular wind power, now largely competitive with gas-fired generation in the US (including the impact of the federal production tax credit and current high gas prices), a margin of 0.3-0.6 cents/kWh may in some cases be enough to sway resource decisions in favor of renewables.« less

At the nexus of fire, water and society.

PubMed

Martin, Deborah A

2016-06-05

The societal risks of water scarcity and water-quality impairment have received considerable attention, evidenced by recent analyses of these topics by the 2030 Water Resources Group, the United Nations and the World Economic Forum. What are the effects of fire on the predicted water scarcity and declines in water quality? Drinking water supplies for humans, the emphasis of this exploration, are derived from several land cover types, including forests, grasslands and peatlands, which are vulnerable to fire. In the last two decades, fires have affected the water supply catchments of Denver (CO) and other southwestern US cities, and four major Australian cities including Sydney, Canberra, Adelaide and Melbourne. In the same time period, several, though not all, national, regional and global water assessments have included fire in evaluations of the risks that affect water supplies. The objective of this discussion is to explore the nexus of fire, water and society with the hope that a more explicit understanding of fire effects on water supplies will encourage the incorporation of fire into future assessments of water supplies, into the pyrogeography conceptual framework and into planning efforts directed at water resiliency.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Fire spread estimation on forest wildfire using ensemble kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syarifah, Wardatus; Apriliani, Erna

2018-04-01

Wildfire is one of the most frequent disasters in the world, for example forest wildfire, causing population of forest decrease. Forest wildfire, whether naturally occurring or prescribed, are potential risks for ecosystems and human settlements. These risks can be managed by monitoring the weather, prescribing fires to limit available fuel, and creating firebreaks. With computer simulations we can predict and explore how fires may spread. The model of fire spread on forest wildfire was established to determine the fire properties. The fire spread model is prepared based on the equation of the diffusion reaction model. There are many methods to estimate the spread of fire. The Kalman Filter Ensemble Method is a modified estimation method of the Kalman Filter algorithm that can be used to estimate linear and non-linear system models. In this research will apply Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method to estimate the spread of fire on forest wildfire. Before applying the EnKF method, the fire spread model will be discreted using finite difference method. At the end, the analysis obtained illustrated by numerical simulation using software. The simulation results show that the Ensemble Kalman Filter method is closer to the system model when the ensemble value is greater, while the covariance value of the system model and the smaller the measurement.

Examining the influence of biophysical conditions on wildland-urban interface homeowners' wildfire risk mitigation activities in fire-prone landscapes

Treesearch

Christine S. Olsen; Jeffrey D. Kline; Alan A. Ager; Keith A. Olsen; Karen C. Short

2017-01-01

Expansion of the wildland–urban interface (WUI) and the increasing size and number of wildfires has policy-makers and wildfire managers seeking ways to reduce wildfire risk in communities located near fire-prone forests. It is widely acknowledged that homeowners can reduce their exposure to wildfire risk by using nonflammable building materials and reducing tree...

Advanced risk assessment of the effects of graphite fibers on electronic and electric equipment, phase 1. [simulating vulnerability to airports and communities from fibers released during aircraft fires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pocinki, L. S.; Kaplan, L. D.; Cornell, M. E.; Greenstone, R.

1979-01-01

A model was developed to generate quantitative estimates of the risk associated with the release of graphite fibers during fires involving commercial aircraft constructed with graphite fiber composite materials. The model was used to estimate the risk associated with accidents at several U.S. airports. These results were then combined to provide an estimate of the total risk to the nation.

Comparing effects of fire modeling methods on simulated fire patterns and succession: a case study in the Missouri Ozarks

Treesearch

Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Brian R. Sturtevant; Brian R. Miranda; Eric J. Gustafson

2008-01-01

We compared four fire spread simulation methods (completely random, dynamic percolation. size-based minimum travel time algorithm. and duration-based minimum travel time algorithm) and two fire occurrence simulation methods (Poisson fire frequency model and hierarchical fire frequency model) using a two-way factorial design. We examined these treatment effects on...

Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Massada, Avi Bar; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction.